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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-25-19 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 8-6 | Loss | -111 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Indians under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Two hungry and competent starters collide in this one and I think that runs will be at a premium. The royals go with Glenn Sparkman, who is 2-3, 3.62 ERA, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber, who is 6-3 with a 3.86 ERA. Bieber comes in off a loss despite allowing only two runs with eight strikeouts over six innings vs. the Rangers on Thursday, while Sparkman comes in off a gem as well, conceding one run over seven innings vs. the hard-hitting Twins on Thursday. Note that the Royals have seen the total go under in four of their last five after allowing three runs or less in two straight games, while Cleveland has seen the total dip under in 22 of its last 37 at home. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Indians. |
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06-24-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* GAME OF WEEK) Ex team-mates collide in the opener of this series. The Dodgers just swept the Rockies at home, all three games decided in the late innings by home runs off the bats of rookie sluggers. Arizona broke a six-game slide with a 4-3 win over the Giants on Sunday. The Diamondbacks clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here. LA is 29 games over .500. Would anyone fault the Dodgers for taking the foot off the gas here? Zack Greinke has struggled in the past vs. the Dodgers, but he’s 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA overall this season. LA’s Clayton Kershaw is 7-1 with a 2.85 ERA. With Greinke enjoying the home field advantage, I classify these starters as a “wash” tonight. The difference comes in Arizona’s desperation levels. I’m banking on it mattering in the opener of this series. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 D-Backs. |
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06-24-19 | Braves +109 v. Cubs | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Braves (8* BLACK-LABEL) ATL has reached double-digit runs six times already this month. Overall Atlanta has won 13 of its last 16. Chicago dropped the first two games of its three game series vs. the Mets, but rallied for a victory in the finale on Sunday. Overall though Chicago has dropped eight of its last 13. The home side hands the ball to Jon Lester, who is 6-5 with a 4.13 ERA, while the visitors go with Julio Teheran, who is 5-5 with a 3.40 ERA. I’ll point out though that ATL is 12-5 (+6.1 units) this year vs. southpaws, while Chicago is interestingly just 3-5 this year when playing on a Monday. I’m banking on the Braves offense to continue its unreal production. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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06-24-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Jays/Yanks under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Yanks eight-game win streak came to an abrupt halt vs. the Astros yesterday and I think the offense falters here as well in the opener of this three-game series vs. the Jays. Toronto is already looking ahead to next season, but it comes in off back-to-back wins in Boston. The Yankees go with CC Sabathia, who earned his 250th career win last time out, giving up one run over six innings vs. the Rays on Wednesday. Overall Sabathia is 18-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 35 career starts vs. the Jays. Aaron Sanchez has struggled for the Jays this year, but note that he’s 2-4 with a 3.24 ERA in 15 appearances vs. New York. Toronto’s seen the total go under in seven of its last nine after back-to-back road victories, while NY has seen the total dip under in 14 of 23 already this season as a home fav of -150 or higher. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Yanks. |
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06-23-19 | Mets -106 v. Cubs | 3-5 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Mets have destroyed the Cubs over the first two games of this series and I look for that trend to continue in the finale. Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom won’t be lacking for motivation here either as he seeks his first ever victory at Wrigley. deGrom is so far 4-6 with a 3.26 ERA this season and he’s 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in seven career starts vs. Chicago. The home side turns to Cole Hamels, who is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA this season, but who is 9-14 with a 4.01 ERA in 33 career outings vs. the Mets. I think Hamels takes a step back and look for deGrom to take advantage. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mets. |
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06-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds/Brewers under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Milwaukee rallied from a three-run first-inning deficit on Saturday to beat Cincinnati 6-5, breaking its five-game losing slide in the process. That loss snapped the Reds season-best six-game win skein. After yesterday’s slug-fest, I expect more of a “duel” in Sunday’s rubber match. The home side turns to Brandon Woodruff, who has had issues with the Reds in the past, but who is 8-2 with a 4.02 ERA this season. The visitors turn to Anthony DeSclafani, who is 4-3 with a 4.22 ERA this year. Note though that the Reds have seen the total go under the number in 14 of 20 already this season when playing as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Brewers have seen the total dip under the number in nine of their last 12 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Brewers. |
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06-23-19 | Blue Jays +159 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-1 | Win | 159 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Jays came from behind to steal last night’s contest 8-7. I think the visitors (at this price) offer great value to do it again on Sunday. Marcus Stroman gets the nod for the Jays and he’s so far 4-9 with a 3.23 ERA. He’ll be opposed by struggling Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, who is 5-6 with a 4.31 ERA. Stroman gave up three runs over seven innings in a 3-1 loss to the Angels most recently, but he does already have a win over the Red Sox this year, giving up on run over six frames (note that he’s also 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA lifetime vs. Boston.) Porcello comes in off his best start of the year, going seven scoreless vs. the Twins on Monday. Porcello has admittedly looked a lot better since a poor start to the 2019 campaign, but note that he’s still just 10-11 with a ballooned 5.39 ERA in 26 career games vs. the Jays. I like the hungry visiting side to steal this game and series. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Blue Jays. |
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06-22-19 | Braves +121 v. Nationals | Top | 13-9 | Win | 121 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves (10* BEST OF BEST) I had a play on Atlanta last night and it unfortunately came up short after the Nationals rallied for a late 4-3 victory. Washington’s won five straight, but I think it’ll come up short here vs. the hungry and revenge minded Braves. Anibal Sanchez is 3-6 with a 3.84 ERA overall for Washington and while he’s been great since returning from a short stint on the IL, he’s struggled vs. the Braves throughout his career, going just 6-11 with a 4.91 ERA in 19 starts against them. Atlanta hands the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (2-5, 5.53) and he was 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA in five starts vs. Washington last season. Note as well that Foltynewicz has quietly been returning to form after a terrible start, entering this one off his best performance of the year by giving up one run over six frames vs. the Phillies. I think both Washington and Sanchez take a step back here and I look for the focused and hungry Foltynewicz and visiting side to step up and take advantage. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Braves. |
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06-22-19 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Astros/Yankees under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Yankees have won seven straight, while Houston has dropped six in a row. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but for this particular selection I’m focusing entirely on the starting pitchers. The home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka, who is 5-5 with a 3.23 ERA and who comes in off a commanding performance vs. the Rays on Monday, going the distance and allowing just two hits. Tanaka comes in on top form off back-to-back victories. The Astros are only hitting .189 collectively during their slide and they counter with Wade Miley, who is 6-4 with a 3.52 ERA, most recently allowing three runs over five innings in a loss to the Reds. Note that Houston has seen the total go under in 14 of 19 vs. AL East opponents this season, while NY has seen the total dip below the number in eight of 12 this season as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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06-21-19 | Blue Jays +300 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* TRADE-MARK). I like the Jays to steal Game 1 of this series vs. the over-priced the Red Sox. Toronto comes in off a hard-fought 7-5, 10-inning victory over the Angels and I expect it to carry that momentum over here. The visitors go with Trent Thornton, who is 2-5 with a 4.36 ERA, while the home side goes with Chris Sale, who is 3-7 with a 3.49 ERA. The Red Sox had Thursday off and I don’t think it’s going to help after they went 18-15 over a 34-day stretch, including a satisfying 9-4 win over the Twins on Wednesday. Toronto got good news yesterday in the closer Ken Giles is back, and he pitched a perfect ninth on Thursday with two K’s. The stage is set for the big upset on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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06-21-19 | Marlins +191 v. Phillies | 2-1 | Win | 191 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8* MONEY-MAKER). I think Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins offer great value to pull off the upset at this generous price. The Phillies are over-priced here for sure considering ace Aaron Nola’s form (he’s 6-1 with a 4.89 ERA overall, but he’s posted a deplorable 7.71 ERA over his last three trips to the hill.) Nola is an unremarkable 3-4 with a 3.98 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Marlins. Philadelphia comes in having lost four straight as well, most recently falling 7-4 to the Nationals last night. In two career starts vs. the Phillies Alcantara is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. I think Miami pulls off the upset here and kicks this struggling home side while it’s down. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Marlins. |
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06-21-19 | Braves +125 v. Nationals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (8* BLACK-LABEL). I’m banking on Dallas Keuchel making an immediate impact for his new team and in his season debut. The home side goes with Stephen Strasburg, who is 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA this season, but who enters off a terrible performance. The Nationals come in off a highly satisfying three-game sweep of the rival Phillies and look primed for a letdown here in my opinion. The Braves had a much needed day off yesterday and come in fresh. As noted above, Strasburg was destroyed in his last start, allowing four home runs vs. the Diamondbacks on Saturday. The stage is set for a minor upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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06-21-19 | Padres v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 107 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Padres/Pirates under (8* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL). The Padres look poised for a letdown here after sweeping the Brewers and facing the lowly Pirates. Two pitchers who have struggled for the most part this year, but who won’t be lacking for motivation tonight collide and I believe it all adds up to a lower-scoring “under” in the opener of this three-game series. The visitors go with Eric Lauer, who is 5-6 with a 4.60 ERA, while the home side goes with Joe Musgrove, who is 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA. The Pirates have gone 3-2 in their last five games. Both teams had yesterday off after posting identical 8-7 victories on Wednesday, but all the numbers/trends point to a “duel,” as note that SD has seen the total dip under the number in five of its last seven when trying to revenge a same season three game sweep at home vs. an opponent, while Pittsburgh’s seen the total dip under in four of its last five at home when the money line is set between -125 and +125. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Pirates. |
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06-21-19 | Astros +135 v. Yankees | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Houston Astros (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Yankees are almost at full strength now with the return of Aaron Judge to the line-up, but I still think the visitors will pull off the slight upset on Friday night after falling in the opener on Thursday. After six straight victories, I think New York takes a step back tonight. The Astros on the other hand come in on the exact opposite end of the spectrum, now desperate for a victory after a season-high five game losing streak. The Yankees James Paxton is 4-3 with a 3.93 ERA and he comes in off a decent outing vs. the lowly White Sox, but when he faced the Astros on April 10th in Houston, he was shelled for five runs over four innings. The visitors go with Brad Peacock, who is 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA. Houston’s not going down without a fight today; I fully expect the slight upset here. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Astros. |
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06-20-19 | Giants +183 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Fran Giants (10* MONEY-MAKER). The over night pitching change from Buehler to Urias favors Madison Bumgarner and the hungry visiting side in my opinion. Bumgarner is 3-6 with a 3.87 ERA, while Urias is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Bumgarner is making his final start at Dodger Stadium as a member of the Giants, who makes one last tune-up performance before being moved by the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July (Bumgarner is 15-13 lifetime vs. the Dodgers with a 2.52 ERA.) After becoming the first team to 50 wins this year after yesterday’s victory, I think the stage is set for a classic letdown here from the home side. Great value on the revenge minded visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Giants. |
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06-20-19 | Indians v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indians/Rangers under (8* BLACK-LABEL). A couple of competent hurlers collide in this one on Thursday afternoon and I believe runs are going to be at a premium. After losing the opener of this four-game series, the Indians have scored ten runs in each of their past two victories. But while the Indians have plated at least eight runs in six of their past 13, I think they’ll have their hands full with veteran Mike Minor, who is 6-4 with a 2.63 ERA and who has struck out 99 over 95 2/3’s frames of work this year (note that over six relief appearances vs. the Tribe he’s struck out 14 and conceded four hits over 8 1/3’s scoreless innings.) The visitors go with Shane Bieber, who is 6-2 with a 3.92 ERA and who is looking to win a fifth straight decision (most recently struck out 12 over eight innings and agave up two runs and one walk in a victory over the Tigers.) Note that Cleveland has seen the total dip under in 11 of 17 on the road already this year as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range, while Texas has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Tribe. |
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06-19-19 | Mets +141 v. Braves | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* BLOOD BATH) The Mets smashed the Braves last night and I expect the “hungrier” team to lay the hammer down again tonight. New York goes with Steven Matz, who is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA, while the home side goes with Max Fried, who is 7-3 with a 4.11 ERA. It’s a good spot bet I think as well, as this the final of a ten game home stand for ATL, before it hits the road for ten straight. A classic “letdown/look-ahead” spot. Note as well that Fried has been terrible over his last three starts, posting a deplorable 7.98 ERA. Matz is 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Braves and while he’s been hit or miss this year overall, I still think he and the hungry visitors offer fantastic value in this position. Play on New York. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Mets. |
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06-19-19 | Brewers v. Padres +102 | 7-8 | Win | 102 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres (8*) San Diego is back to .500 after taking the first two games of this series and I believe the home side will indeed deliver the knock out blow here and earn the hard-earned sweep. Milwaukee is now just 2-5 during this eight-game road trip and with a night off before returning home after this afternoon contest, I do indeed believe that the visitors get caught “looking ahead” to the time off and friendlier confines. Matt Strahm is 2-6 with a 4.66 ERA for the Padres ("I think we'll have a bounce-back outing from Matt (on) Wednesday," Padres manager Andy Green told the media. "We're confident his stuff is good enough to play in the rotation. His last couple have not been the sharpest.”), while Zach Davies is 7-1 with a 2.60 ERA for the Brewers. Davies though did suffer a loss in his most recent outing, allowing three runs off six hits in a 5-3 setback to the Giants last Friday. A great situational play on the hungrier home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Padres. |
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06-19-19 | Astros v. Reds +160 | 2-3 | Win | 160 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) Houston has dropped the first two games of this three-game interleague series and I believe the home side offers great value to complete the sweep. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, who is 6-5 with a 3.67 ERA and who has been sharp of late, but who is just 1-8 with a 4.97 ERA in 12 starts vs. Cincinnati. The Reds hit three home runs off Justin Verlander yesterday and I think they’ll carry that momentum/confidence over here. Tyler Mahle is 2-7 with a 4.33 ERA for Cincinnati; note though that while he’s 0-6 with a 4.83 ERA on the road, he’s 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA at home. Look for the Reds to keep the foot on the gas Wednesday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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06-19-19 | Rays v. Yankees +119 | 1-12 | Win | 119 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (8*) Blake Snell is 4-5 with a 3.70 ERA for the Rays this year, who enter having the first two games of this series. The Yankees go with veteran CC Sabathia, who is 3-4 with a 4.42 ERA to this point. Snell has fared very averagely vs. New York throughout his career by going 3-5 with a 3.97 ERA in 13 career starts vs. it. Also note that he’s just 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA in nine starts in the Bronx. Sabathia on the other hand is 17-16 with a 3.63 ERA in 50 career starts vs. Tampa (faced them twice last month and allowed three runs over 11 innings of work.) The Yanks saw Edwin Encarnacion hit a home run in yesterday’s win and while slugger Giancarlo Stanton went 0 for 4 in his return, all signs point to another victory for the home side on Wednesday afternoon in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Yanks. |
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06-18-19 | Indians v. Rangers +113 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rangers (10* TRADE-MARK). I think the hard-hitting home-side offers great value in the slight upset role at home. Texas has been a “different” team at home this year and I look for it to move to seven games over .500 for the first time this season after tonight (Texas is 25-12 at home after last night’s 7-2 win.) The home side hands the ball to Adrian Sampson, who is 5-3 with a 4.21 ERA and who had his five start win streak snapped last time out by allowing six runs to the Red Sox. Sampson though is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA at home this year. The visitors go with rookie right-hander Zach Plesac, who is 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA, who most recently allowed three homers and four runs total over five innings in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Rangers. |
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06-18-19 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Mets/Braves under (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Braves have been putting runs on the board at a prodigious rate of late, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom, who has been sharp himself and who has dominated this matchup throughout his career. Braves’ starter Julio Teheran is also in fine form right now and he’s also had success vs. the Mets in the past. I think these two veterans will fight deep into the latter frames. deGrom, who is 3-6 with a 3.38 ERA, has a 2.29 ERA in three appearances in June. He also has a 1.86 ERA in 116 frames vs. the Braves. Teheran is 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA overall this season and he’s 10-7 with a tiny 2.35 ERA in 26 career appearances vs. the Mets. All signs point to a low-scoring pitchers duel. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Mets. |
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06-17-19 | Orioles +200 v. A's | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (8* MONEY-MAKER). Both pitchers have been hot. Andrew Cashner is 6-2 with a 4.73 ERA this year overall, while Mike Fiers of the A’s is 6-3 with a 4.63 ERA. Cashner comes in on top form, having won two in a row, most recently allowing one run over six innings in a win over the Astros. Fiers is 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA over his past seven. I think that the A’s are over-priced here though as I expect Cashner to match Fiers inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry dog. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 O’s. |
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06-17-19 | Mets +141 v. Braves | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* GAME OF WEEK) Yes the Braves are hot and yes rookie Mike Soroka, who is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA, have both been better than expected this season. But after winning nine of its last ten, including a 15-1 win over Philadelphia yesterday, I think ATL takes a step back here vs. the Mets, who are just 5-5 in their last ten, falling 4-3 to the Cards on Sunday. Note as well that Soroka is starting to show signs of regression, entering this one off his worst start of his career, allowing five runs off five hits over five innings to the Pirates. Wheeler comes in off his worst start of his career as well, giving up nine runs over five innings to the Yanks. Note though that it was the first time since early April that he’s failed to complete six innings (additionally note that Wheeler is 6-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Braves.) The stage is set for the upset as I look for the hungry Mets to get the job done. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mets. |
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06-16-19 | Mariners +125 v. A's | 6-3 | Win | 125 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (8*) Despite struggling at times this year, I think that Mariners’ veteran Mike Leake offers great value to get the better of his rookie counterpart Tanner Anderson. Anderson, who is 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA, made his debut last week vs. the suddenly slumping Rays and gave up two runs over five innings. It was only supposed to be spot start and I think he’s going to predictably struggle here. Seattle is in full re-build mode after shipping out Edwin Encarnacion, but I still think it’ll rebound here after yesterday’s 11-2 loss. Leake owns a 4.15 lifetime ERA in 10 starts vs. the A’s. I expect Seattle to respond in this favorable spot. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Mariners. |
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06-16-19 | Rangers +152 v. Reds | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (8*) We had a play on Texas yesterday and I think it’s going to sweep this series this afternoon with another great effort, both on the mound and at the plate. The Rangers’ trot out Ariel Jurado, who is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA overall and 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA over his last four starts after allowing three runs over six innings in a 9-5 win over Boston. The home side goes with Sonny Gray, who is 2-5 with a 3.65 ERA and who has done well vs. the Rangers in the past, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. And the numbers support that as note that Texas is now 21-15 (+9.4 units) this year following a win and 13-10 (+5.7 units) in all “day” games, while Cincinnati is still a poor 14-16 (-5.8 units) at home and only 94-130 (-15.4 units) the L2 years vs. teams with winning records. I like the Rangers to keep the foot on the gas in the closer. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Rangers. |
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06-16-19 | Indians v. Tigers +140 | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8*) Yes, Trevor Bauer has been on a role of late for the Tribe, but so to has Spencer Turnbull for the Tigers. The home side won’t be lacking for motivation today and I think it offers great value to pull off the slight upset this afternoon. Bauer is 4-6 with a 3.71 ERA overall, but he’s struggled against the Tigers throughout his career, posting a poor 5.67 ERA in 17 lifetime appearances. Turnbull is 3-5 with a 2.78 ERA and he enters off a gem vs. KC, going six scoreless, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for another strong effort. Cleveland is still just 23-25 (-10.3 units) this season vs. right-handed starters. The door is open for Turnbull here. Play on Detroit. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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06-15-19 | Cubs +164 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 164 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (10* TRADE-MARK). Yu Darvish is 2-3 with a 4.98 ERA and he’s played just 22 games total for the Cubs. He’ll be trying to take down his former team today and start his climb back to respectability once again. Clearly Walker Buehler, who is 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA, comes in with the better numbers, but I think that after losing 7-3 in the opener and 5-3 yesterday, that the home side has a letdown here. It’s interesting to note as well that Buehler has faced the Cubs twice and gone 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA vs. them. I don’t expect Darvish to go the distance, but I think he does enough. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Cubs. |
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06-15-19 | Rangers +110 v. Reds | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (8* MONEY-MAKER). The Rangers got a timely grand slam from Rougned Odor to take this interleague series opener 7-1 last night and I think the visitors secure the series victory with another convincing effort on Saturday. Tanner Roark is 4-5 with a 3.74 ERA overall for the home side, but just 1-4 over his past five trips to the hill, most recently getting rocked for four runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Phillies. The visitors counter with Mike Minor, who is 5-4 with a 2.52 ERA. Despite allowing just two runs over eight innings vs. the Red Sox in his last start on on day, Minor remains winless after his last four trips to the mound (0-1 during that stretch despite a 2.19 ERA.) Note that Minor is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in four starts vs. the Reds. Great line value on the surging visiting side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. |
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06-15-19 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Nationals under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The visitors hand the ball to Taylor Clarke, who is 1-2 with a 5.26 ERA. The home side counters with Stephen Strasburg, who is 7-3 with a 3.36 ERA. Strasburg has always fared well vs. the D-Backs, going 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA in 11 career match ups. Arizona looks to get back on track after last night’s 7-3 loss, with Nats’ co-ace Max Scherzer striking out ten. Note that Arizona has seen the total dip under the number in 16 of its last 24 “day” games, while Washington has seen the total go under in for of its last five following a victory. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Nationals. |
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06-15-19 | Angels +192 v. Rays | 5-3 | Win | 192 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Angels (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT). I think the hard-hitting visiting side has much more than just a punchers chance here. Charlie Morton gets the call for the home side and he’s 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA. He hasn’t lost in 21 starts since a loss vs. the Mariners last August. But all good things must come to an end. After yesterday’s 9-4 victory, I think the home side comes in flat here. The visitors counter with Jose Suarez, who is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA over his first two major league starts. The Angels though have done well in this spot for bettors this season, going 9-5 (+4.8 units) in their last 14 after a loss by four runs or more. Today’s the day Morton takes a big step back. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Angels. |
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06-14-19 | Brewers v. Giants +133 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 133 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Fran Giants (10* MONEY-MAKER). Zach Davies is 7-0 with a 2.41 ERA, while Drew Pomeranz is 1-6 with a 7.16 ERA. Milwaukee leads the NL in home runs. The Giants have struggled with offensive consistency all year. Clearly at first glance this one favors Milwaukee, but Pomeranz comes in off a “gem” (went five scoreless vs. the Dodgers in a head to head matchup against Clayton Kershaw), and I think he offers great value to carry that momentum over here. Davies actually enters off one of his shortest outings of the season, earning a no-decision after conceding seven hits and three runs over five innings vs. the Pirates on Saturday. I think the Brewers come in complacent and I like the hungry home side to steal Game 1. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants. |
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06-13-19 | Rangers +200 v. Red Sox | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (8* MONEY-MAKER) Texas took the first two games of this series convincingly, but the Red Sox bounced back with a 4-3 win yesterday afternoon. I had a play on the “under” in that one. The visitors hand the ball to Adrian Samson, who his 5-3 with a 3.72 ERA. He’ll be opposed by Boston’s best pitcher this season, lefty David Price, who is 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA this year. Price has been sharp of late and Sampson has been better at home than on the road this year, but he’s still a respectable 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA in all “night” games. The Rangers now lead the league in several offensive categories and I think they have much more than just a “punchers” chance on Thursday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Rangers. |
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06-12-19 | Brewers +134 v. Astros | Top | 6-3 | Win | 134 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* TRADE-MARK). Milwaukee looks to bounce back after yesterday’s 10-8 defeat. Houston goes with Justin Verlander, who is 9-2 with a 2.31 ERA, while the visitors go with Brandon Woodruff, who is 8-1 with a 3.87 ERA. I think these starters are a “wash,” but I’ll point out that Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine after allowing ten or more runs in its previous contest, while Houston is just 3-8 in its last 11 home games after scoring ten or more runs. Great value on the hard-hitting visitors. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. |
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06-12-19 | Rangers v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Rangers/Red Sox under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER). Texas has pulled off back-to-back upsets to open this series. I had the Rangers as a +200 dog in the first game. The visitors go with Lance Lynn, who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the A’s last time out. Lynn comes in on top form, having posted six straight quality starts. The home side goes with Rick Porcello, who gave up four runs off eight hits over six innings vs. the Rays in his last starts. Boston will clearly be leaning heavily on the veteran today to break the two-game slide and help improve upon its sub-par 15-16 record at home. Note that Texas has still seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 33 following a win and in 16 of 20 this year following two or more consecutive wins. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Red Sox. |
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06-11-19 | Mariners v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Under Mariners/Twins (9* BLACK-LABEL) I think this number is a little high despite these being the top two teams as far as “home runs” are concerned. The home side hands the ball to Martin Perez, who is 7-2 with a 3.72 ERA and who is a sharp 8-5 with a 3.26 ERA in 22 career appearances and 20 starts vs. the Mariners. The visitors counter with Mike Leake, who is 5-6 with a 4.30 ERA. Leake enters off one of the best starts of his career, off a complete-game 14-1 win over the Astros, allowing six hits and two walks while striking out five. Note that Leake is 2-0 with a 4.32 ERA in four career starts vs. Minnesota. Additionally note that Seattle has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 off a win of six runs or more over a division rival, while Minnesota has seen the total go under in 17 of 27 at home so far this season. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Twins. |
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06-11-19 | Nationals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 101 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nats/Sox over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) The Nationals won 12-1 in the series opener last night and while I’m not expecting such a lop-sided margin of victory here, I do think that these teams will combine to put the same or even more runs on the board. Patrick Corbin gets the call for the Nats and he’s 5-4 with a 3.59 ERA. But Corbin has been terrible of late, giving up eight runs over two innings to the Reds, before then allowing five runs over five innings to the Padres on Thursday. The White Sox will be eager to get some production tonight after yesterday’s humbling defeat. Chicago goes with the erratic Manny Banuelos (3-4, 7.36 ERA) who actually earned a victory in his last start, giving up three runs over five innings vs. the Indians. Despite that though I’ll point out that the White Sox have seen the total go over the number in all three games so far this year in which they’re a +175 or higher underdog. Also note that Washington has seen the total go over in all three games so far this year after allowing three runs or less in two straight games. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Nationals. |
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06-10-19 | Dodgers v. Angels +138 | 3-5 | Win | 138 | 31 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Angels (8* BLACK-LABEL) It’s hard to say anything negative about the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu is 9-1 with a 1.35 ERA and he’s arguably been the best pitcher on the planet since half way through 2018. I just think his team has a letdown here in this interleague venue. The home side counters with Griffin Canning, who is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA and who struck out a career-high eight over six innings in a loss to the A’s on Tuesday. It’s interesting to note though that the Dodgers are just 1-3 (-3 units) off two straight road wins vs. a division rival, while the Angels are 8-4 (+5.2 units) in their last 12 after a loss by four runs or more. I’m expecting a minor upset here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Angels. |
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06-10-19 | Rangers +207 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 207 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* MONEY-MAKER) Boston is seven games back of AL East leading New York. The home side goes with Chris Sale, who is 2-7 with a 3.84 ERA, while the visitors go girth Mike Minor, who is 5-4 with a 2.55 ERA. Sale comes in off a gem vs. the light-hitting Royals, but I think he’ll have his hands full here with Minor and the hard-hitting Rangers. Minor has a tiny 2.08 ERA over his past eight starts and he struck out seven over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Note that Boston went 5 for 36 with runners in scoring position at Tampa over the weekend and I think it’s going to struggle again vs. Minor. Great value on the under-rated underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. |
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06-09-19 | Pirates +155 v. Brewers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pirates (8*) Pittsburgh won’t be lacking for motivation here as it’s just 5-1 so far in this season series. Steven Brault gets the nod for the visitors and he’s 2-1 with a 5.45 ERA. Brault owns a respectable 4.28 ERA vs. the Brewers over 33.2 career innings. Chase Anderson gets the call for the home side and he’s 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA. Anderson owns a 3.61 ERA in 15 starts vs. Pittsburgh. The numbers support us today though, ash note that the Pirates are 18-8 in their last 26 road games vs. right-handed starters, while the Brewers are 1-4 in their last five vs. southpaws. Anderson just gave up four runs (including three homers) in a 16-0 loss to Miami in his last start. Everything points to a solid upset here. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Pirates. |
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06-09-19 | Reds +126 v. Phillies | 4-3 | Win | 126 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds (8*) I think Sonny Gray, who is 2-5 with a 3.54 ERA for the Reds, can match pace with Phillies ace Aaron Nola, who is 6-1 with a 4.63 ERA, can match pace inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry underdog, which will be desperate to avoid the 3-0 sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Besides note that Nola comes in off a terrible start in which he was rocked for six runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Padres (note that it was in fact the third time this year in which Nola has allowed five or more runs.) Gray has posted a 2.45 ERA over his past four starts, going 3-1 in the process. It’s now or never for the desperate Reds. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Reds. |
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06-09-19 | Rays v. Red Sox +111 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Red Sox (8*) Blake Snell’s not been the same pitcher as he was last year, coming into this one with a sub-par 3-5, 3.65 ERA to this point. So far Snell has received just 3.41 RPG of support, which ranks seventh lowest in the league. Snell was tagged for six runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the toothless Tigers in his last outing as well. Eduardo Rodriguez gets the nod for Boston and he’s 6-3 with a 4.88 ERA. Rodriguez looks for a third straight win and fifth victory in his last six trips to the hill for Boston. I think Snell’s “hangover” continues in this difficult venue and I expect Rodriguez to continue his recent solid form. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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06-08-19 | Nationals v. Padres +135 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres (10* TRADE-MARK). The Padres have taken the first two games of this four-game set and I believe they offer great value to keep the ball rolling here. Max Scherzer is 3-5 with a 3.06 ERA and he’s done extremely well vs. the Padres though out his career. Eric Lauer is 5-4 with a 4.18 ERA and over his only two starts vs. the Nationals he’s posted a 2.43 ERA. Lauer though enters on fire, having allowed just five runs and thee walks with 17 strikeouts over his last 24 innings spanning his last four trips to the hill. Note as well that Washington’s a pathetic 3-7 (-4.9 units) on the road with a money line of -100 to -150, while SD is 9-6 (+3.9 units) after two or more consecutive wins. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Padres. |
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06-08-19 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Indians under (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL) CC Sabathia gets the nod for the Yanks and he’s so far 3-2 with a 3.61 ERA. Sabathia is expected to retire at the end of the season, but he’s after his 250th victory tonight. Sabathia is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Indians. Sabathia will look to help his team bounce back from yesterday’s 5-2 setback. The home side goes with Adam Plutko, who is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA and who has been called up from Triple-A Columbus to make this start. Note though that New York has seen the total dip under in three of four already this year after having lost four of its last five games while the Indians have seen the total go under in four of five this season as a home dog. New York’s blistering start to the year despite a rash of injuries appears to now definitely be heading in the opposite direction. Until those big bats do finally return, I expect that trend to continue at the plate for the Yanks. This total is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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06-07-19 | Mariners +152 v. Angels | 6-2 | Win | 152 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (8*) Seattle beat the Astros 14-1 on Wednesday, but fell 8-7 in extras in the finale. LA is off a 7-4 loss at home to the A’s. After taking three of four in Seattle between May 30th to June 2nd, I expect Seattle to come out swinging in the opener of this three-game set. The visitors go with Marco Gonzalez, who is 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA. Gonzales has struggled of late, but note that he’s 4-1 with a 4.26 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Angels (he’s also 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA in five career outings at Angel Stadium.) LA counters with Andrew Heaney, who is 0-0 with a 4.09 ERA. Last Saturday he gave up three runs over six innings in Seattle. Overall he’s 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA in eight career outings vs. the Mariners. Note as well that the M’s are 13-9 (+3.7 units) this year vs. clubs with losing records, while LA is already a poor 14-18 (-4.6 units) following a loss. I think great value on the M’s. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Mariners. |
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06-07-19 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Royals under (8*) Both of these teams enter at under .500 after the first two months of the season. Note though that only the Tigers have fewer that KC’s 65 home runs among teams with more than its 543 K’s (8.75 per contest.) Note that the Royals have now struck out 129 times over their past 13 games. Ivan Nova is 3-5 with a 6.24 ERA for Chicago this year, while Home Bailey is 4-6 with a 6.05 ERA for the Royals. Look closer though and we see that Nova has a sharp 3.32 ERA over his past three trips to the hill. Bailey has been “hit or miss” the last few seasons, but note that KC has seen the total dip under the number in 13 of its last 18 vs. clubs with losing records. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Royals. |
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06-07-19 | Diamondbacks +124 v. Blue Jays | 8-2 | Win | 124 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks. (8*) Toronto took two of three from New York this week, but I think it’ll predictably have a letdown here in this tough interleague series. Merrill Kelly is 5-6 with a 4.41 ERA for the Diamondbacks, while Toronto goes with Marcus Stroman, who is 3-7 with a 2.84 ERA. Arizona got a much needed 3-2 walk off win over the Dodgers on Wednesday afternoon. Note that Kelly has a 4.14 ERA over three interleague career starts. Both starters have struggled of late, so I’ll call that department a “wash.” Note though that Arizona is already 7-0 (+7.5 units) this year when playing with a day off, while Toronto is just 12-19 (-7.3 units) at home. Good value on the under the radar visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Diamondbacks. |
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06-06-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +177 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST). Toronto’s endured a terrible start to the 2019 campaign. The Yankees are enjoying one of the best runs in recent memory to open a season, doing it all with most of their big sluggers sidelined with injury. The tables are turning now that June has hit though, as Toronto puts the foot on the gas here as it looks to sweep this three game series from the overachieving and overpriced Yanks. Edwin Jackson is 0-3 with a 13.22 ERA this season, but he should settle down here in my opinion. JA Happ is 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA for New York, but I think his former team rolls to another hot performance at the plate tonight. I like Toronto to carry over its recent momentum. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Jays. |
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06-06-19 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Reds/Cards under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Last night’s game was postponed and the two starters which were supposed to go in that one, will now get the call here. I’m basing this pick primarily on the form of Cardinals’ starter Dakota Hudson, who comes in on the top of his game. Hudson is 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA overall and he went 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA in six starts in may. The Reds won Tuesday’s series opener 4-1 and they’ll go with Anthony DeSclafani, who is just 2-3 with a 4.97 ERA this year, but who is 6-2 with a 3.45 ERA litetime vs. St. Louis. Cincinnati has seen the total go under in 13 of 22 this year as a road dog, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in nine of 15 vs. clubs with losing records this season. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. |
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06-05-19 | Braves v. Pirates +102 | 4-7 | Win | 102 | 29 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pirates (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I like Pittsburgh to bounce back after yesterday’s 12-5 defeat. The Pirates come in focused after losing 11 of their last 15 to fall three games below .500. Note though that Pittsburgh was playing without slugger Josh Bell, who is back in the line-up today after having two entire days off. I think that definitely matters in this case. Atlanta hands the ball to Kevin Gausman, who is 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA, while Pittsburgh goes with Joe Musgrove, who is 3-6 with a 4.57 ERA. Gausman comes in off a terrible start, allowing eight runs over one inning in a 14-4 loss to the Nationals. Musgrove hasn’t been much better of late, losing his last two starts. These evenly matched struggling pitchers are a wash. But I like the Pirates to finally get off the schneid here in what I think is a fantastic situational play. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Pirates. |
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06-05-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dodgers/Diamondbacks over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) LA has taken the first two games of this series. The Diamondbacks have been stifled early by LA’s dominant pitching and it won’t get too much easier facing Kenta Maeda, who is 7-2 with a 3.61 ERA. He’s won four straight starts, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here facing this desperate Arizona team. Note as well that Maeda is just 5-5 with a 4.75 ERA in 16 appearances vs. Arizona lifetime, which includes an atrocious 7.31 ERA over 28 1/3’s innings at Chase Field. The D-Backs trot out rookie right-hander Jon Duplantier, who is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA. He made his debut on Friday and gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Friday. Clearly the book is still out on Duplantier at this point and shutting down anemic New York is one thing, but slowing down this offensive juggernaut in LA is definitely another. LA has seen the total go over in 11 of 17 already this year as a road favorite, while Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 16 of 27 vs. the division this season. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Dodgers. |
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06-04-19 | Phillies +145 v. Padres | 9-6 | Win | 145 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (8* BLACK-LABEL) The Phillies come in desperate after five straight losses. The visitors look to turn things around by handing the ball to Jerad Eickhoff, who is 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA. The home side goes with rookie Chris Paddack, who is 4-3 with a 2.40 ERA. Paddack’s early gains are starting to come back down to Earth though as he enters off his worst start of his career, getting rocked for four runs (including three solo dingers) over five innings in a loss to the Yanks. Note that Paddack has now allowed five home runs over his last three starts. Eickhoff has also struggled of late, going 0-2 with a ballooned 8.35 ERA over his last four outings. Eickhoff though is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in four career starts vs. the Friars. I like Philadelphia to finally get off the schneid and I look for Eickhoff to get the better of Paddack. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. |
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06-04-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +188 | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Dodgers’ starter Hyun-Jin Ryu went 5-0 in May, posting a ridiculous 0.59 ERA. Ryu has been the best pitcher in baseball dating back to last year, but I think his early minuscule numbers are unsustainable over the long-term and believe that regression is going to happen sooner, rather than later. Note as well that Ryu owns a sub-par 4.99 ERA in seven starts at Chase Field. Arizona won’t be lacking for motivation. Neither will its rookie right-hander Taylor Clarke, who is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA and who comes in off a rough outing vs. the Rockies. Ryu’s been amazing, but all good things come to an end. The visitors are over-priced in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 D-Backs. |
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06-04-19 | Reds v. Cardinals +115 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cardinals (10* MONEY-MAKER) St. Louis has won four in a row and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas and pull off the slight upset in the opener of this three-game set. Cincinnati enters have lost two straight. The visitors hand the ball to ace Luis Castillo, who is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and who hasn’t lost since April 3rd. Castillo though has been extremely shaky of late and I think his early season gains are unsustainable, as note the he enters off back-to-back poor outings, most recently allowing three runs over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday (he’s 1-3 with a 3.67 ERA in six career starts vs. St. Louis.) The home side goes with Genesis Cabrera, who is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA, giving up five runs off five hits over four innings in his MLB debut vs. the Phillies on Wednesday (also struck out five.) I think Cabrera can match Castillo’s current form and in a situation like that, I think the value swings to the undervalued underdog. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Cards. |
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06-03-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* GAME OF WEEK) Walker Buehler is 5-1 with a 4.03 ERA and he comes in off a decent start, but I think he’ll take a step back here in the opener of this three game set and in this difficult road venue. The home side goes with Robbie Ray, who is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA this season, but who has enjoyed tremendous success vs. the Dodgers throughout his career, going 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 16 outings vs. LA, striking out a whopping 130 over 95 2/3’s innings of work. Buehler on the other hand has a 4.90 ERA in three career starts vs. Arizona, spanning 15 1/3’s frames of work (gave up five runs over three innings on March 31st.) After winning five straight, I think the Dodgers comes out flat in this opener. Great value on Ray and the hungry home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rays. |
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06-02-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees +112 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the Yanks offer great value to sweep the Red Sox here as the underdog. Note that Red Sox’ starter David Price was 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA in four starts vs. New York in 2018. Gary Sanchez hit a two-run homer in yesterday’s 5-3 win and he’s 7 for 14 with six homers and 12 RBI’s lifetime vs. Price. The Red Sox are just 2-6 in their last eight and they were only 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position Saturday. Yanks’ starter CC Sabathia is 18-13 with a 4.14 ERA in 42 career outings vs. the Red Sox, including going 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA over his last eight starts vs. Boston. I like New York to keep the good times rolling with another solid victory to cap off Sunday night baseball. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks |
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06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Marlins/Padres over (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Theses teams have split the first two games of this series. The lowly visiting side goes with Trevor Richards, who is 2-5 with a 3.82 ERA, while the home side goes with Matt Strahm, who is 2-4 with a 3.21 ERA. Miami won’t be rolling over here as it has in fact been playing a lot better of late, winning four of its last six and going 10-5 since mid May. Richards and Strahm have been above average, this season, but note that Miami has seen the total go over in four of its last six as a road dog of +175 or higher, while SD has seen the total sail over in ten of 15 already this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Padres. |
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06-01-19 | Blue Jays +135 v. Rockies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (10* TRADE-MARK). I like the Jays to bounce back after yesterday’s 13-6 defeat. Colorado has won seven of eight during its current home stand, with four of those victories coming on its last at-bat. The home side goes with Jon Gray, who posted a sub-par 5.65 ERA in May. Toronto ace Marcus Stroman is just 3-6, but he owns a sharp 2.74 ERA over 12 starts. Stroman enters on top form having having given up just one earned run in each of three straight strong outings. Note as well that Toronto is already a perfect 4-0 (+5.5 units) this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent which scored ten or more runs in. Great value on the hotter pitcher. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Jays. |
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06-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards over (8* BANKROLL BUILDER). This is a big game for both division foes. It’s the first game of the new month and each will be eager to kick it off with a victory. St. Louis sits 3.5 games behind the Cubs for the division lead after a terrible May. The Cards posted a 2-1 win in ten innings last night, but I expect a much more offensive affair on Saturday night. Cards’ starter Jake Flaherty is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in four five appearances vs. the Cubs. Cubs’ starter Jose Quintana has done well vs. the Cards over his career, but he comes in off a terrible start vs. the Reds on Sunday, allowing six runs and a career-high 12 hits over five innings in a loss. Note that Chicago has seen the total go over in nine of 12 as a road dog already this season, while St. Louis has seen the total go over in ten of its last 14 when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Cards. |
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05-31-19 | Phillies +150 v. Dodgers | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (8*) It’s a big early season series between the top two teams in the National League. I think the visitors offer great value to steal Game 1. The home side goes with Kenta Maeda, who is 6-2 with a 3.67 ERA, while the visitors go with Jake Arrieta, who is 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA. Philadelphia has a gruelling schedule ahead of it, a 23-game period vs. the Dodgers, the Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers, as well as team’s a game within the .500 mark in Colorado, St. Louis and San Diego. "It's definitely a test for us, but I don't think we have to play with any pressure," Philadelphia second baseman Cesar Hernandez assessed last night. "You go there and you see that they're in first place, like us. Down the road, if we stay in first place and they stay in first place, you know that eventually we're going to play each other in a bigger scenario." I think the pitchers are a “wash,” and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the under-valued underdog. Look for Arrieta to get the better of Maeda on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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05-31-19 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Rangers under (10*) A couple of respectable pitchers collide in this one on Friday night and I think they’ll battle each other deep into the latter frames. KC came out on top in yesterday’s 4-2 win and I believe we’ll see a similar lower-scoring “duel” here as well. Texas turns to Ariel Jurado, who is 1-2 with a 2.28 ERA, giving up two runs over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Angels in his last start. The visitors hand the ball to the resurgent Danny Duffy, who is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA. Duffy’s three-start win streak came to an end in his last trip to the hill, as he’d give up four runs (only one earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Yanks on Sunday (Duffy is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Rangers as well.) I expect these “studs” to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. |
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05-31-19 | Red Sox +109 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10*) Chris Sale got destroyed by the Yanks in April. Sale got out to an uncharacteristically slow start this year, but since the loss to New York he’s resembled his normal dominating self, posting a 2.44 ERA in seven starts since. Sale’s had tremendous success vs. New York throughout his career, including at Yankee stadium here he owns a very respectable 2.36 ERA in nine career appearances. Yanks’ starter JA Happ is 8-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 22 regular season appearances vs. the Red Sox, but he’s been consistently inconsistent all season and I think he’ll struggle against the suddenly resurgent Sale. This is a huge series. For Boston. Who could fault the Yanks for taking the foot off the gas, they’ve been the hottest team in baseball and doing it all without their major power hitters. Boston’s been playing a lot better as well though and I think they’re the correct call in this match-up on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Red Sox. |
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05-30-19 | Mets +216 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mets (10* TRADE-MARK) The Dodgers came from behind to knock off the Mets 9-8 last night, but I think the visitors will rally to salvage the finale of this three game set. The Dodgers scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth to seal the win. It’s impossible to point to any faults for Dodgers’ starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 5-0 with a 1.22 ERA at Dodger stadium. He’s also done very well against the Mets throughout his career. The visitors go with Jason Vargas, who is 1-2 with a 5.22 ERA. The veteran though looked sharp in his last star, allowing one run over five innings in a win over the Tigers on Saturday. Note that the Mets have won three of his last five trips to the hill and he owns a sharp 2.74 ERA over his last five starts. My play is on Vargas. I think the veteran can match pace with the over-achieving Ryu and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Mets. |
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05-30-19 | Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 10 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/Phillies under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series. Yesterday Philadelphia homered four times in its 11-4 win. I think the finale of this three-game set though sets up as a much more of a “duel.” The home side goes with Jerad Eickhoff, who is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA, but who comes in focused after three straight ugly starts. Note though that Eickhoff has made two career appearances vs. the Cards and has gone 1-1, which includes a 5-0 win on May 8th when he gave up just three hits over eight shutout frames. The Cards are now 7-18 in the month of May. The visitors counter with Dakota Hudson to stop the bleeding, he’s so far 3-3 with a 4.22 ERA. He got crushed by the Phillies on May 7th, but in his last start he went a career-high 6 1/3’s innings in a 6-3 victory over the Braves, giving up five hits and two runs. Note that Hudson comes in on top form, having posted four straight quality starts with a 3.07 ERA over his last five games. These are two hungry starters and I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. |
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05-29-19 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Astros under (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). The Astros won their second straight in this series in yesterday’s 9-6 interleague victory. One day earlier Houston had to hold on for the 6-5 win. While the first two games of this series have flown well above the posted number, I think the conditions are now right for more of a “duel” in the finale. The home side hands the ball to Wade Miley, who is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA and who looked sharp in his last outing, allowing one run while posting eight K’s in a win over the Red Sox. Also note that Miley has in fact won four straight and he’s unbeaten at home this year. He’s also 6-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Cubs, which includes going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 2018 while he was with the Brewers. The visitors try to salvage the finale by turning to Kyle Hendricks, who is 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over six innings with nine K’s in a no-decision to the Reds. While only 3-8 in 18 careers starts vs. the American League in his career, Hendricks does own a respectable 3.41 ERA over that span. I look for these surging veteran starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Astros. |
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05-28-19 | Brewers +117 v. Twins | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Zach Davies of the Brewers is 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA. He struggled in his only start vs. the Twins, but that was way back in 2019. The home side counters with Martin Perez, who is 7-1 with a 2.95 ERA. I think these starters are a “wash.” It wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either to win. For me this is a situationally based pick. The Twins had their six-game win streak snapped in last night’s 5-4 loss and I believe another letdown is imminent here as well vs. their interleague opponent. Note that Milwaukee is already 6-3 (+2.5 units) this year after a one-run victory, while Minnesota is still only 3-6 (-6.3 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The Twins have been playing at a very high level for a very long time. Regression seems imminent and I believe last night’s loss is the beginning. Great value on the hard-hitting visiting side. NOTE: Pitching change! Perez is out for the Twins and Devin Smeltzer (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is in. Smeltzer’s been strong in Triple A, but clearly he’s being thrown to the wolves here. This is STILL A PLAY! T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Brewers. |
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05-28-19 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Jays/Rays over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) The Rays won yesterday’s three-game series opener 8-3 and I expect a similar final combined score here as well once it’s all said and done. Tampa Bay slugger Austin Meadows had three RBI’s and a home run yesterday. Toronto won’t be rolling over though here after it lost two of three at home to the Rays in April. In fact the Rays are 16-7 vs. the Jays the last two years, including 8-2 at home over that span. Toronto goes with Clayton Richard, who is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA so far, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek, who is 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA. The book is still out on each of these starters though with such a small sample size so far. I think the stage is set for another high-scoring affair as I expect each of these starters to get the hook early. Note that Toronto has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine after a loss by five runs or more as well. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Rays. |
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05-27-19 | Indians +167 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-12 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Boston rallied to salvage the finale of its three-game series in Houston last night, but I think it’ll stumble here in the Opener of this three game set vs. the Indians. Cleveland comes in focused as it desperately tries to avoid falling below .500 for the first time since April 3rd. The Tribe have lost six of their last seven. "Quitting is not an option," Cleveland manager Terry Francona said last night. "You have to keep playing. ... Nobody likes to lose. Guys don't like making outs, guys don't like giving up hits, but you have to play through that. I think that kind of can define who you are at the end of the season is how you fight through frustration." Let’s call Indians’ starter Jefry Rodriguez, who is 1-4 with a 4.08 ERA and Red Sox’ starter Rick Pocello, who is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA, a “wash.” here. Boston’s been terribly inconsistent and I think that trend continues here. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the hungry visiting side tonight. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Tribe. |
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05-27-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Marlins/Nationals under (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Max Scherzer got destroyed by the Marlins last week, but overall he’s 12-4 with a 3.28 ERA vs. the Fish. Jose Urena has done extremely well vs. the Nationals throughout his career as well, going 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA and a complete game thrown in there over 12 career appearances. Note that Miami has seen the total dip under in 13 of 14 “day” games already this year, while Washington has seen the total go under in five of its last six as a home favorite of -200 or higher. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Nationals. |
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05-26-19 | Braves +132 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 132 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* MONEY-MAKER) These teams have split the first two games of this three game series. Julio Teheran though, who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA for the Braves this season, has been unbelievable in the month of May and I believe he offers great value to continue that progression. Joe Flaherty, who is 4-3 with a 4.19 ERA gets the call for the home side. Teheran though is 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA over four starts this month (having not given up more than a single run or three hits in any of those appearances.) Teheran also owns a sharp 2.77 ERA in seven lifetime match ups vs. the Cards. Flaherty is 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA this month. I like the Braves wily veteran to continue his recent strong form. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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05-26-19 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Dodgers/Pirates under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Dodgers have won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 17-4. LA is so far 5-2 on its eight-game road trip. This sets up as a bit of a trap for the visiting side. Pittsburgh won’t be taking anything for granted after losing four of its last five. The Pirates already have 21 players on the IL and yesterday catcher Francisco Cervelli was injured as well by a broken bat. Kenta Maeda is 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA for the Dodgers and the Pirates counter with Chris Archer, who is 1-4 with a 5.55 ERA. I’ll point out though that LA has seen the total go under in 11 of 15 already this season after allowing three runs or less in two straight games, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 12 after allowing seven or more runs in two straight games. I think the conditions and numbers point to a lower-scoring affair. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Dodgers. |
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05-25-19 | Dodgers v. Pirates +144 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the Pirates offer great value to bounce back here after last night’s 10-2 defeat. Pittsburgh won’t be lacking for motivation here as it’s lost 15 of the last 17 in this series. The home side comes in motivated and hands the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA. LA hands the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 6-1 with a 1.52 ERA. Ryu has been exceptional, but I think his early season numbers are unsustainable. Musgrove has been quietly dominating as well, coming in having won two straight. I think Musgrove and the home side step up and end the Dodgers and Ryu’s current streaks; play on the home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Pirates. |
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05-25-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8 | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks/Giants over (8* BLACK-LABEL) I think runs are going to be plentiful here. Arizona broke out of its slump with a resounding 18-2 win in last night’s series opener and I believe it’s going to carry that momentum over here. The home side sends Andrew Suarez to the hill and he’s so far 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA. Most recently Suarez allowed three runs over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. He’s also only 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in three career starts vs. the D-Backs. The visitors counter with rookie Taylor Clarke, who is 0-1 with a 2.00 ERA and who will make his second career start here. In his first start he gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Rays. San Francisco won’t be lacking for motivation after yesterday’s humiliating defeat. I think these starters get chased early. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Giants. |
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05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Cardinals under (10* SUPER TOTAL) These two starting pitchers dominated last year, but each has so far struggled in 2019. They won’t be lacking for motivation here and I believe this determination from each will help in pushing this total under the number once its all said and done. Braves’ starter Mike Foltynewicz is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA, while Cards’ starter Miles Mikolas is 4-4 with a 4.88 ERA. The Braves come in tired as well after last night’s 5-4, 13 inning victory at San Francisco. Foltynewicz won’t be lacking for focus here though after the Cards crushed him for eight runs over 4 2/3’s innings just last week. In his last start he gave up two runs over six innings vs. the Brewers. Mikolas can empathize, as he gave up seven runs over 1 1/3’s innings to Texas in his last start. Note that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 already this year after two or more consecutive victories, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in four of five already this season after scoring ten or more runs in its previous outing. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. |
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05-24-19 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | 4-11 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Twins under (8* MONEY-MAKER) After going 6-1 on a West Coast road trip which saw them hit 22 home runs and outscore its opposition 67-29, I believe Minnesota has a predictable “letdown” here in the opener of this three-game home series vs. the White Sox. The home side hands the ball to Jose Berrios, who is 6-2 with a 3.39 ERA and who is 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA and .183 opponents batting average in nine career starts vs. the White Sox. I think the Twins offense “stalls” after the big road trip, but I expect Berrios to continue his red hot start and his career domination of Chicago. The visitors counter with Reynaldo Lopez, who is 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA. Note though that Lopez is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins and 0-1 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts at Target Field. Chicago has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Minnesota has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 15 as a favorite of -110 or higher. I expect these starters to throw deep. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Twins. |
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05-24-19 | Reds +149 v. Cubs | 6-5 | Win | 149 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 4.60 ERA) and the hungry visiting side will pull off the minor upset on Friday afternoon. Note that DeSclafani owns a 2-1, 3.19 ERA lifetime record at Wrigley Field. DeSclafani comes in off a poor outing, but note that Cincinnati’s bullpen has been spectacular overall, coming into Wednesday with a league-leading 3.31 ERA, before the 11-9 loss to the Brewers: "Our bullpen has been so good all year," Reds manager David Bell told reporters. "But days like this one are going to happen and they're going to bounce back." The home side goes with Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.21) who has been much better of late, but who I think will have his hands full here vs. this hungry visiting side. Note that Cincinnati is in fact already 12-6 (+6.9 units) this season after having lost two of its last three games, while Chicago is already 0-2 (-2.1 units) this year after scoring seven runs or more in two straight games. I’m banking on the Reds’ elite bullpen to be the difference. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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05-23-19 | White Sox +180 v. Astros | Top | 4-0 | Win | 180 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) After dropping the first two games of this four game series, the White Sox bounced back with a convincing win on Wednesday. Now with its ace Lucas Giolito coming to the mound, I look for Chicago to build off that win. Giolito is 5-1 with a 3.35 ERA and he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA over his last three starts. He’s been crushed by the Astros in the past, but that was then and this is now. I think Giolito has a big advantage over his rookie counterpart Corbin Martin, who is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Martin’s been strong over his first two outings, but clearly regression is imminent at some point and in my opinion, that’s going to happen sooner, rather than later. I expect Giolito to continue his progression and I look for Martin to take a big step back. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Sox. |
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05-23-19 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nats/Mets under (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) A couple of competent hurlers square off in this afternoon National League contest and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Mets have won the first three games of this series, including last night’s 6-1 victory (all six runs engineered in the eighth inning.) While both teams have struggled with offensive consistency, this pick is based primarily on the starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, who is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA and who so far has been best in all “day” games this year, going 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA. His counterpart Steven Matz, who is 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA, returned from the DL to give up two runs over four innings in a 2-0 loss to Miami last weekend (he owns a 3.60 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Nats.) The stage is set for a “duel.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Nationals. |
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05-22-19 | Braves v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Giants over (10* TOTAL U of U) Max Fried is 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA for the Braves and Jeff Samardzija is 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA for the Giants. These starters have each gotten out to a decent start to the 2019 campaign, but I think each takes a step back here and gets the hook early. San Francisco completed a dramatic bottom of the night come from behind win last night and I expect that momentum to get carried over here. Note that Fried’s career ERA vs. the Giants is 4.50 with no decisions. Samardzija is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA vs. the Braves lifetime. Note though that ATL has seen the total go over in nine of 12 already this year after having lost two of its last three games, while San Francisco has seen the total fly over in five of its last six after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Giants. |
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05-22-19 | Diamondbacks +124 v. Padres | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (9* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Padres swept a two-game set vs. the Mariners earlier in the year. They lost two of three to the Pirates last weekend. Arizona though will be desperate to avoid the sweep by the Padres today. The Padres have scored two one-run wins over the first two games, but I think Eric Lauer, who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA, will falter here for the Friars in the finale. The visitors counter with Merrill Kelly, who is 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA. Lauer is already 0-2 vs. the D-Backs this year, giving up seven runs off 17 hits with a 6.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Kelly is 1-0 in two starts vs. the Padres, giving up seven runs over 11 innings with a 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Note though that Arizona is 9-4 (+7.5 units) already this year as a road dog of +100 to +150, while SD is just 6-7 vs. clubs with winning records. I think the hungrier team gets the job done at the end of the day. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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05-22-19 | A's v. Indians UNDER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: A’s/Indians (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two hungry starters go head to head in this one and I think that runs will be at a premium. The A’s posted a 5-3 win yesterday and I think a similar final combined score will be in order here as well. The home side hands the ball to Jefry Rodriguez, who is 1-3 with a 3.45 ERA and who comes in off his first truly crummy start of the year vs. the Orioles, giving up four runs over seven innings. The A’s god with Frankie Montas, who is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA. Montas enters off a gem vs. the Tigers on Friday, striking out a career-high ten and coming within an out of his first career complete effort. Note that Oakland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 23 already this year when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Cleveland has seen the total go under in eight of 12 in the same position. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Indians. |
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05-22-19 | Reds -117 v. Brewers | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* BEST OF BEST) I think Luis Castillo and the Reds build off yesterday’s 3-0 victory and find a way to earn the sweep of this two game set. Let’s call these starters a “wash.” Luis Castillo and Zack Davies have two of the best records in the league and it’s difficult to find any faults in either at the moment. The Reds’ though have momentum and they get set to welcome back slugger Yasiel Puig. Note as well that the Reds are already 3-1 this year as a road favorite, while the Brewers are only 2-4 as a home dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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05-21-19 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nationals/Mets over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) It’s the Nationals’ Erick Fedde (0-0, 3.38 ERA) vs. the Mets Zack Wheeler (3-3, 4.85). New York ended a miserable five-game losing streak with a 5-3 win in last night’s four-game series opener and clearly it’ll be looking to keep the foot on the gas here as well. The Nationals can empathize though as they continue to struggle with game to game consistency as well. It’s interesting to note that the Nats have lost 13 games by two runs or fewer and two more in extra innings. These are two clubs with big expectations but which are both scuffling at the plate. I think that ends tonight. Last Thursday these exact starters faced each other and Wheeler gave up six runs over six innings in Washington’s eventual 7-6 win. All signs point to a similar final combine score in my opinion this time around as well. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Mets. |
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05-20-19 | Mariners +135 v. Rangers | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* GAME OF WEEK) Mike Leake (3-4, 4.00 ERA) gets the call for the Mariners, while Texas hands the ball to Mike Minor (4-3, 2.61). Seattle beat Minnesota 7-4 to salvage the final game of a four-game set. Seattle clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here after scuffling over the last three weeks. Texas on the other hand has reversed its fortunes of late, most recently mounting a furious 5-4 comeback win over the Cardinals. But I think the Rangers will have their hands full with Leake, who comes off his best start of the year, giving up three runs over seven innings to beat the A’s. Minor comes in off a win over the Royals, allowing one run over five innings. Note though that Minor is 2-3 with a 4.51 ERA in six starts vs. the M’s, while Leake is 1-2 with a 3.14 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Rangers. Additionally note that Seattle is still 14-8 (+7.2 units) this year following a win and 12-3 (+9.4 units) vs. clubs with losing records, while Texas is just 1-3 this season after a one run victory and only 8-10 vs. teams with losing overall records. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Mariners. |
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05-19-19 | Giants +156 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 156 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Fran Giants (10* TRADE-MARK) This series is tied at one-game apiece. Drew Pomeranz is only 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA this year, but he returns from the DL to make his first start since early May. His counterpart is Robbie Ray, who is 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA and who has looked sharp of late, but who I think is over-priced here. Note that San Francisco is 5-1 in its last six following a victory, while Arizona is only 11-12 at home this year. I look for the Giants to build off yesterday’s win and I expect Ray to finally take a step back after his blistering start. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants. |
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05-19-19 | Dodgers v. Reds +168 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) Hyun Jin Ryu is 5-1 with a 1.72 ERA for the Dodgers. Note that he hasn’t allowed a run in his past two starts, pitching 24 straight scoreless frames overall. Can anyone say letdown spot? This is a continuation of the end of last year’s performance for Ryu, but I think that imminent regression is imminent, as these numbers seem completely unsustainable to me. The Reds come in off the 4-0 win last night and with Tanner Roark on the mound, who is 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA, I think the home side does indeed have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. I think Ryu has his letdown here and is vastly over-priced on the road. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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05-19-19 | Rockies +143 v. Phillies | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8*) I like the Rockies to bounce back here and salvage the finale of this three-game set after dropping the first two. The home side goes with Jered Eickhoff, who is 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA. Eickhoff though was shelled for five runs over four innings in a 6-1 loss to the Brewers on Tuesday. Also note that Eickhoff is a terrible 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA in five games vs. the Rockies. The Rockies are desperate now to avoid a fourth straight loss and they’ll be hoping that Kyle Freeland, who is 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA, can start that turnaround. Last year Freeland was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA. Note though that in two games vs. the Phillies he’s 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Freeland though comes in off a decent outing vs. the Red Sox, given yup three runs with seven K’s over six innings. I like Freeland here, great value on the hungrier visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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05-18-19 | Dodgers v. Reds +140 | 0-4 | Win | 140 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds (8*) I like the Reds to bounce back here after yesterday’s series opening defeat. The home side hands the ball to Tyler Mahle, who is 0-5 despite a respectable 3.97 ERA. Mahle faced the Dodgers in LA in mid April and gave up four runs off 11 hits over six innings. Clearly it won’t be easy facing the improving Walker Buehler, who is 4-0 with a 4.15 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless innings vs. Washington, but note that LA is already just 5-8 (-4.6 units) this year after having won six or seven of its last eight. Cincinnati on the other hand is still 10-5 in its last 15 at home. I’m banking on a bounce back. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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05-18-19 | Orioles +141 v. Indians | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles (10* TRADE-MARK) Baltimore comes in off a 5-1 victory last night and I think it offers great value to steal this one as well. The home side hands the ball to Adam Plutko on Saturday and he’ll be making his season debut here. Last year he was an unimpressive 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA and 60 K’s for the Tribe. Baltimore will look to take advantage and to build off yesterday’s production, posting a season-high seven extra-base hits in the win. The visitors counter with the red hot John Means, who is 5-3 with a 2.33 ERA and who has won four of his past five outings and given up one earned run or fewer in each of the four victories. All things considered, i think this is the very definition of “great line value.” T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Orioles. |
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05-18-19 | Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Rockies/Phillies under (8*) Two “studs” going head to head here. I’m expecting each to work into the latter frames, which I believe will ultimately help in pushing this total under the number once it’s all said and done. The home side hands the ball to Aaron Nola, who is 3-0 with a 4.86 ERA. Over his last 21 1/3’s innings of work Nola has given up just six runs. Also note that in three career starts vs. the Rockies he’s 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. The visitors counter with Antonio Senzatela, who is 3-2 with a 5.35 ERA. Coors Field is difficult on all starting pitchers, but note that Senzatela is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA on the road this season. Note that Colorado has seen the total go under in 31 of 50 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go under in nine of 13 home games already this year. This number is a tad high in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. |
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05-16-19 | A's v. Tigers +115 | Top | 17-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE) Oakland comes in having lost three straight and i think that string of futility carries over here. Note that the A’s are only 5-15 on the road this year. The visitors go with Chris Bassitt on the hill this afternoon and he’s 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA. Bassitt most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a loss to the Reds. He’s a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.96 ERA in four career starts vs. the Tigers. Detroit has lost three straight as well, so it won’t be lacking for motivation either. The home side counters with Spencer Turnbull, who is 2-2 with a 2.42 ERA. The good news for Detroit though is that it’s won Turnbull’s last four starts. Note that Oakland is just 2-7 (-6.6 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is between -100 to -150, while Detroit is a solid 13-8 (+8.3 units) in all “day” games this year. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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05-15-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/Braves under (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Two competent starting pitchers collide in the second game of this three game National League series and in my opinion, everything points to classic “duel” after St. Louis’ 14-3 win in yesterday’s opener. The Cards hand the ball to Michael Wacha (3-0, 5.35 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs over six innings in a win over the Pirates. The home side counters with Mike Soroka (3-1, 1.21) is the first others since 1913 to allow one run or fewer as a starter in eight of his first ten career games. Note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go under in 18 of its last 28 after having lost six or seven of its last eight games, while Atlanta has seen the total go under in 47 of its last 77 at home when the total is either 9 or 9.5. Expect these “studs” to battle into the latter frames and look for this one to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. |
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05-15-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 1-11 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Diamondbacks under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Chris Archer is only 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA and he hasn’t pitched since mid April because of injury, but he returns from the DL pumped up here to face the Diamondbacks. These teams have split the first two games of this series. Note that Archer is 1-0 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 2/3’s innings of work vs. Arizona. The D-Backs Zack Greinke enters on top form, having gone 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his past eight starts. Note that Greinke is 9-4 with a 4.17 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Additionally note that the Pirates have seen the total go under in 55 of its last 95 as a road dog between +125 to +175, while the D-backs have seen the total go under in ten of 16 “day” games already. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 D-Backs. |
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05-14-19 | Cubs v. Reds +125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* TRADE-MARK). Both teams come in relatively hot, as Chicago hasn’t lost a series since losing the first three, while Cincinnati is 17-15 following a terrible 1-8 start. The home side has to be feeling confident here though in handing the ball to Tanner Roark, who is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA, most recently shutting out the A’s on three hits over six innings. Note that over his last 13 innings of work Roark has conceded just seven hits and two runs. Note that Chicago right fielder Jason Heyward is 0 for 20 vs. Roark and only 4 for 39 over his past ten games. Roark is 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA lifetime vs. the Cubs. The visitors go with Kyle Hendricks, who is 2-4 with a 3.19 ERA. Hendricks comes in off back-to-back decent outings and while he’s had success against the Reds in the past, note that Chicago is still only 5-11 (-11.8 units) in its last 16 after allowing one run or less in two straight games. And finally note that the Reds have done well in this spot for bettors by going 14-11 (+4.9 units) in all “night” games. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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05-14-19 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 9-0 | Push | 0 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indians/White Sox under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Both of these starters have struggled at times this year, but each has also looked very good in others. Each is coming off a crummy outing (Carrasco is 3-3 with a 4.91 ERA, most recently giving up four runs over eight innings in a no-decision vs. the Mariners, while Banuelos. who is 2-2 with a 6.67 ERA gave up nine runs off ten hits over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Saturday. Amazingly, all of the damage came in a single frame. Clearly it was a disaster of epic proportions, but note that despite that “brain fart,” Banuelos is 2-1 with a 5.96 ERA and 22 K’s over 22.2 innings of work. Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 21 on the road already, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in four of its last five home games then the total is set at 8.5 or higher. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Indians. |
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05-13-19 | Astros v. Tigers +127 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8* MONEY-MAKER) The Tigers have been better than advertised this year and I think they offer great value to steal Game 1 of this series. Keep your eyes on Detroit slugger Brandon Dixon, who came over off waivers from the Reds in November. Dixon is batting .317 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 15 games this year. Overall Detroit has seven home runs over its last three games. Matt Boyd is 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA for the Tigers and he comes in on top form having posted seven straight quality starts, going 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in that span. Brad Peacock is 3-2 with a 4.30 ERA for the Astros and while he’s been decent overall, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Houston is just 8-11 (-9.3 units) on the road so far, while Detroit is still 9-9 at home. I like Boyd in this matchup. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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05-11-19 | Nationals +123 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 123 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10*) It hasn’t been Max Scherzer’s best year for the Nationals, but I still think he offers great value to help the Nats bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-0 defeat. Scherzer is 1-4 with a 3.78 ERA, but he enters off a dominant start vs. the Brewers on Monday, allowing two runs off six hits with 10 K’s over six frames in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. He also generated 18 swinging strikes. Scherzer comes in on top form. Walker Buehler is 4-0 with a 4.95 ERA, most recently giving up three runs off five hits in a 5-3 win over the Braves on Monday. I’ll pint out though that LA is a money-burning 18-21 (-11.2 units) in its last 39 with a home money line in the -105 to -150 range. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Nationals. |
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05-11-19 | Pirates +151 v. Cardinals | 2-1 | Win | 151 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (8*) Jordan Lyles has had issues vs. the Cardinals in the past, but as far as I’m concerned, that was then and this is now. The Cards scored 17 runs in Thursday’s series opening victory, but they then fell 2-1 on Friday to the Pirates. St. Louis is in a major hitting slump, and I think the currently red hot Lyles, who is 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA, offers great value in this spot. Note that the Cards have scored no more than one run in five of their last nine games. St. Louis pitcher Miles Mikolas is 4-2 with a 4.02 ERA and he comes in off back-to-back strong outings, but I still think that Lyles is the correct call and that the Cards are over-priced. Great value on the hungry visiting side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Pirates. |
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05-11-19 | Brewers +121 v. Cubs | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (8*) Milwaukee opened this series with a 7-0 win yesterday and I think it offers great value to do it again here. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Davies, who is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA. The Cubs go with Cole Hamels, who is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Note though that Milwaukee is already 16-9 this year when the money line in the contest is between -125 and +125, while Chicago is just 2-7 in its last nine home games after getting shutout and losing by five or more runs in its previous contest. Great value on the hot hitting visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Brewers. |
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05-11-19 | Tigers +135 v. Twins | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8*) I like Detroit to bounce back in Game 1 of this double header after falling 6-0 in yesterday’s series opener. While the Twins’ have gotten unreal pitching of late, their starter today Michael Pineda, has struggled this year and I think he’ll get lit up by the hungry Tigers as well. Pineda is 2-3 with a 6.09 ERA. The Tigers come in desperate after getting shutout in back-to-back games. Spencer Turnbull is 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA and while he has struggled against the Twins in the past, he comes in off a great victory vs. the Royals, giving up one run off six hits while striking out seven over seven innings. A great spot bet and unreal value on the pitcher in better current form. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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