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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-31-19 | Red Sox +109 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10*) Chris Sale got destroyed by the Yanks in April. Sale got out to an uncharacteristically slow start this year, but since the loss to New York he’s resembled his normal dominating self, posting a 2.44 ERA in seven starts since. Sale’s had tremendous success vs. New York throughout his career, including at Yankee stadium here he owns a very respectable 2.36 ERA in nine career appearances. Yanks’ starter JA Happ is 8-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 22 regular season appearances vs. the Red Sox, but he’s been consistently inconsistent all season and I think he’ll struggle against the suddenly resurgent Sale. This is a huge series. For Boston. Who could fault the Yanks for taking the foot off the gas, they’ve been the hottest team in baseball and doing it all without their major power hitters. Boston’s been playing a lot better as well though and I think they’re the correct call in this match-up on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Red Sox. |
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05-30-19 | Mets +216 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mets (10* TRADE-MARK) The Dodgers came from behind to knock off the Mets 9-8 last night, but I think the visitors will rally to salvage the finale of this three game set. The Dodgers scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth to seal the win. It’s impossible to point to any faults for Dodgers’ starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 5-0 with a 1.22 ERA at Dodger stadium. He’s also done very well against the Mets throughout his career. The visitors go with Jason Vargas, who is 1-2 with a 5.22 ERA. The veteran though looked sharp in his last star, allowing one run over five innings in a win over the Tigers on Saturday. Note that the Mets have won three of his last five trips to the hill and he owns a sharp 2.74 ERA over his last five starts. My play is on Vargas. I think the veteran can match pace with the over-achieving Ryu and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Mets. |
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05-28-19 | Brewers +117 v. Twins | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Zach Davies of the Brewers is 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA. He struggled in his only start vs. the Twins, but that was way back in 2019. The home side counters with Martin Perez, who is 7-1 with a 2.95 ERA. I think these starters are a “wash.” It wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either to win. For me this is a situationally based pick. The Twins had their six-game win streak snapped in last night’s 5-4 loss and I believe another letdown is imminent here as well vs. their interleague opponent. Note that Milwaukee is already 6-3 (+2.5 units) this year after a one-run victory, while Minnesota is still only 3-6 (-6.3 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The Twins have been playing at a very high level for a very long time. Regression seems imminent and I believe last night’s loss is the beginning. Great value on the hard-hitting visiting side. NOTE: Pitching change! Perez is out for the Twins and Devin Smeltzer (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is in. Smeltzer’s been strong in Triple A, but clearly he’s being thrown to the wolves here. This is STILL A PLAY! T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Brewers. |
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05-27-19 | Indians +167 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-12 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Boston rallied to salvage the finale of its three-game series in Houston last night, but I think it’ll stumble here in the Opener of this three game set vs. the Indians. Cleveland comes in focused as it desperately tries to avoid falling below .500 for the first time since April 3rd. The Tribe have lost six of their last seven. "Quitting is not an option," Cleveland manager Terry Francona said last night. "You have to keep playing. ... Nobody likes to lose. Guys don't like making outs, guys don't like giving up hits, but you have to play through that. I think that kind of can define who you are at the end of the season is how you fight through frustration." Let’s call Indians’ starter Jefry Rodriguez, who is 1-4 with a 4.08 ERA and Red Sox’ starter Rick Pocello, who is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA, a “wash.” here. Boston’s been terribly inconsistent and I think that trend continues here. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the hungry visiting side tonight. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Tribe. |
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05-26-19 | Braves +132 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 132 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* MONEY-MAKER) These teams have split the first two games of this three game series. Julio Teheran though, who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA for the Braves this season, has been unbelievable in the month of May and I believe he offers great value to continue that progression. Joe Flaherty, who is 4-3 with a 4.19 ERA gets the call for the home side. Teheran though is 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA over four starts this month (having not given up more than a single run or three hits in any of those appearances.) Teheran also owns a sharp 2.77 ERA in seven lifetime match ups vs. the Cards. Flaherty is 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA this month. I like the Braves wily veteran to continue his recent strong form. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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05-25-19 | Dodgers v. Pirates +144 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the Pirates offer great value to bounce back here after last night’s 10-2 defeat. Pittsburgh won’t be lacking for motivation here as it’s lost 15 of the last 17 in this series. The home side comes in motivated and hands the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA. LA hands the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 6-1 with a 1.52 ERA. Ryu has been exceptional, but I think his early season numbers are unsustainable. Musgrove has been quietly dominating as well, coming in having won two straight. I think Musgrove and the home side step up and end the Dodgers and Ryu’s current streaks; play on the home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Pirates. |
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05-24-19 | Reds +149 v. Cubs | 6-5 | Win | 149 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 4.60 ERA) and the hungry visiting side will pull off the minor upset on Friday afternoon. Note that DeSclafani owns a 2-1, 3.19 ERA lifetime record at Wrigley Field. DeSclafani comes in off a poor outing, but note that Cincinnati’s bullpen has been spectacular overall, coming into Wednesday with a league-leading 3.31 ERA, before the 11-9 loss to the Brewers: "Our bullpen has been so good all year," Reds manager David Bell told reporters. "But days like this one are going to happen and they're going to bounce back." The home side goes with Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.21) who has been much better of late, but who I think will have his hands full here vs. this hungry visiting side. Note that Cincinnati is in fact already 12-6 (+6.9 units) this season after having lost two of its last three games, while Chicago is already 0-2 (-2.1 units) this year after scoring seven runs or more in two straight games. I’m banking on the Reds’ elite bullpen to be the difference. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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05-23-19 | White Sox +180 v. Astros | Top | 4-0 | Win | 180 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) After dropping the first two games of this four game series, the White Sox bounced back with a convincing win on Wednesday. Now with its ace Lucas Giolito coming to the mound, I look for Chicago to build off that win. Giolito is 5-1 with a 3.35 ERA and he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA over his last three starts. He’s been crushed by the Astros in the past, but that was then and this is now. I think Giolito has a big advantage over his rookie counterpart Corbin Martin, who is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Martin’s been strong over his first two outings, but clearly regression is imminent at some point and in my opinion, that’s going to happen sooner, rather than later. I expect Giolito to continue his progression and I look for Martin to take a big step back. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Sox. |
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05-22-19 | Diamondbacks +124 v. Padres | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (9* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Padres swept a two-game set vs. the Mariners earlier in the year. They lost two of three to the Pirates last weekend. Arizona though will be desperate to avoid the sweep by the Padres today. The Padres have scored two one-run wins over the first two games, but I think Eric Lauer, who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA, will falter here for the Friars in the finale. The visitors counter with Merrill Kelly, who is 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA. Lauer is already 0-2 vs. the D-Backs this year, giving up seven runs off 17 hits with a 6.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Kelly is 1-0 in two starts vs. the Padres, giving up seven runs over 11 innings with a 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Note though that Arizona is 9-4 (+7.5 units) already this year as a road dog of +100 to +150, while SD is just 6-7 vs. clubs with winning records. I think the hungrier team gets the job done at the end of the day. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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05-22-19 | Reds -117 v. Brewers | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* BEST OF BEST) I think Luis Castillo and the Reds build off yesterday’s 3-0 victory and find a way to earn the sweep of this two game set. Let’s call these starters a “wash.” Luis Castillo and Zack Davies have two of the best records in the league and it’s difficult to find any faults in either at the moment. The Reds’ though have momentum and they get set to welcome back slugger Yasiel Puig. Note as well that the Reds are already 3-1 this year as a road favorite, while the Brewers are only 2-4 as a home dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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05-20-19 | Mariners +135 v. Rangers | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* GAME OF WEEK) Mike Leake (3-4, 4.00 ERA) gets the call for the Mariners, while Texas hands the ball to Mike Minor (4-3, 2.61). Seattle beat Minnesota 7-4 to salvage the final game of a four-game set. Seattle clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here after scuffling over the last three weeks. Texas on the other hand has reversed its fortunes of late, most recently mounting a furious 5-4 comeback win over the Cardinals. But I think the Rangers will have their hands full with Leake, who comes off his best start of the year, giving up three runs over seven innings to beat the A’s. Minor comes in off a win over the Royals, allowing one run over five innings. Note though that Minor is 2-3 with a 4.51 ERA in six starts vs. the M’s, while Leake is 1-2 with a 3.14 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Rangers. Additionally note that Seattle is still 14-8 (+7.2 units) this year following a win and 12-3 (+9.4 units) vs. clubs with losing records, while Texas is just 1-3 this season after a one run victory and only 8-10 vs. teams with losing overall records. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Mariners. |
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05-19-19 | Giants +156 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 156 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Fran Giants (10* TRADE-MARK) This series is tied at one-game apiece. Drew Pomeranz is only 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA this year, but he returns from the DL to make his first start since early May. His counterpart is Robbie Ray, who is 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA and who has looked sharp of late, but who I think is over-priced here. Note that San Francisco is 5-1 in its last six following a victory, while Arizona is only 11-12 at home this year. I look for the Giants to build off yesterday’s win and I expect Ray to finally take a step back after his blistering start. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants. |
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05-19-19 | Dodgers v. Reds +168 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) Hyun Jin Ryu is 5-1 with a 1.72 ERA for the Dodgers. Note that he hasn’t allowed a run in his past two starts, pitching 24 straight scoreless frames overall. Can anyone say letdown spot? This is a continuation of the end of last year’s performance for Ryu, but I think that imminent regression is imminent, as these numbers seem completely unsustainable to me. The Reds come in off the 4-0 win last night and with Tanner Roark on the mound, who is 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA, I think the home side does indeed have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. I think Ryu has his letdown here and is vastly over-priced on the road. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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05-19-19 | Rockies +143 v. Phillies | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8*) I like the Rockies to bounce back here and salvage the finale of this three-game set after dropping the first two. The home side goes with Jered Eickhoff, who is 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA. Eickhoff though was shelled for five runs over four innings in a 6-1 loss to the Brewers on Tuesday. Also note that Eickhoff is a terrible 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA in five games vs. the Rockies. The Rockies are desperate now to avoid a fourth straight loss and they’ll be hoping that Kyle Freeland, who is 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA, can start that turnaround. Last year Freeland was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA. Note though that in two games vs. the Phillies he’s 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Freeland though comes in off a decent outing vs. the Red Sox, given yup three runs with seven K’s over six innings. I like Freeland here, great value on the hungrier visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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05-18-19 | Dodgers v. Reds +140 | 0-4 | Win | 140 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds (8*) I like the Reds to bounce back here after yesterday’s series opening defeat. The home side hands the ball to Tyler Mahle, who is 0-5 despite a respectable 3.97 ERA. Mahle faced the Dodgers in LA in mid April and gave up four runs off 11 hits over six innings. Clearly it won’t be easy facing the improving Walker Buehler, who is 4-0 with a 4.15 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless innings vs. Washington, but note that LA is already just 5-8 (-4.6 units) this year after having won six or seven of its last eight. Cincinnati on the other hand is still 10-5 in its last 15 at home. I’m banking on a bounce back. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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05-18-19 | Orioles +141 v. Indians | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles (10* TRADE-MARK) Baltimore comes in off a 5-1 victory last night and I think it offers great value to steal this one as well. The home side hands the ball to Adam Plutko on Saturday and he’ll be making his season debut here. Last year he was an unimpressive 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA and 60 K’s for the Tribe. Baltimore will look to take advantage and to build off yesterday’s production, posting a season-high seven extra-base hits in the win. The visitors counter with the red hot John Means, who is 5-3 with a 2.33 ERA and who has won four of his past five outings and given up one earned run or fewer in each of the four victories. All things considered, i think this is the very definition of “great line value.” T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Orioles. |
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05-16-19 | A's v. Tigers +115 | Top | 17-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE) Oakland comes in having lost three straight and i think that string of futility carries over here. Note that the A’s are only 5-15 on the road this year. The visitors go with Chris Bassitt on the hill this afternoon and he’s 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA. Bassitt most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a loss to the Reds. He’s a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.96 ERA in four career starts vs. the Tigers. Detroit has lost three straight as well, so it won’t be lacking for motivation either. The home side counters with Spencer Turnbull, who is 2-2 with a 2.42 ERA. The good news for Detroit though is that it’s won Turnbull’s last four starts. Note that Oakland is just 2-7 (-6.6 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is between -100 to -150, while Detroit is a solid 13-8 (+8.3 units) in all “day” games this year. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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05-14-19 | Cubs v. Reds +125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* TRADE-MARK). Both teams come in relatively hot, as Chicago hasn’t lost a series since losing the first three, while Cincinnati is 17-15 following a terrible 1-8 start. The home side has to be feeling confident here though in handing the ball to Tanner Roark, who is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA, most recently shutting out the A’s on three hits over six innings. Note that over his last 13 innings of work Roark has conceded just seven hits and two runs. Note that Chicago right fielder Jason Heyward is 0 for 20 vs. Roark and only 4 for 39 over his past ten games. Roark is 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA lifetime vs. the Cubs. The visitors go with Kyle Hendricks, who is 2-4 with a 3.19 ERA. Hendricks comes in off back-to-back decent outings and while he’s had success against the Reds in the past, note that Chicago is still only 5-11 (-11.8 units) in its last 16 after allowing one run or less in two straight games. And finally note that the Reds have done well in this spot for bettors by going 14-11 (+4.9 units) in all “night” games. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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05-13-19 | Astros v. Tigers +127 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8* MONEY-MAKER) The Tigers have been better than advertised this year and I think they offer great value to steal Game 1 of this series. Keep your eyes on Detroit slugger Brandon Dixon, who came over off waivers from the Reds in November. Dixon is batting .317 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 15 games this year. Overall Detroit has seven home runs over its last three games. Matt Boyd is 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA for the Tigers and he comes in on top form having posted seven straight quality starts, going 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA in that span. Brad Peacock is 3-2 with a 4.30 ERA for the Astros and while he’s been decent overall, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Houston is just 8-11 (-9.3 units) on the road so far, while Detroit is still 9-9 at home. I like Boyd in this matchup. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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05-11-19 | Nationals +123 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 123 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10*) It hasn’t been Max Scherzer’s best year for the Nationals, but I still think he offers great value to help the Nats bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-0 defeat. Scherzer is 1-4 with a 3.78 ERA, but he enters off a dominant start vs. the Brewers on Monday, allowing two runs off six hits with 10 K’s over six frames in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. He also generated 18 swinging strikes. Scherzer comes in on top form. Walker Buehler is 4-0 with a 4.95 ERA, most recently giving up three runs off five hits in a 5-3 win over the Braves on Monday. I’ll pint out though that LA is a money-burning 18-21 (-11.2 units) in its last 39 with a home money line in the -105 to -150 range. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Nationals. |
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05-11-19 | Pirates +151 v. Cardinals | 2-1 | Win | 151 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (8*) Jordan Lyles has had issues vs. the Cardinals in the past, but as far as I’m concerned, that was then and this is now. The Cards scored 17 runs in Thursday’s series opening victory, but they then fell 2-1 on Friday to the Pirates. St. Louis is in a major hitting slump, and I think the currently red hot Lyles, who is 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA, offers great value in this spot. Note that the Cards have scored no more than one run in five of their last nine games. St. Louis pitcher Miles Mikolas is 4-2 with a 4.02 ERA and he comes in off back-to-back strong outings, but I still think that Lyles is the correct call and that the Cards are over-priced. Great value on the hungry visiting side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Pirates. |
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05-11-19 | Brewers +121 v. Cubs | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (8*) Milwaukee opened this series with a 7-0 win yesterday and I think it offers great value to do it again here. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Davies, who is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA. The Cubs go with Cole Hamels, who is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Note though that Milwaukee is already 16-9 this year when the money line in the contest is between -125 and +125, while Chicago is just 2-7 in its last nine home games after getting shutout and losing by five or more runs in its previous contest. Great value on the hot hitting visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Brewers. |
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05-11-19 | Tigers +135 v. Twins | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8*) I like Detroit to bounce back in Game 1 of this double header after falling 6-0 in yesterday’s series opener. While the Twins’ have gotten unreal pitching of late, their starter today Michael Pineda, has struggled this year and I think he’ll get lit up by the hungry Tigers as well. Pineda is 2-3 with a 6.09 ERA. The Tigers come in desperate after getting shutout in back-to-back games. Spencer Turnbull is 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA and while he has struggled against the Twins in the past, he comes in off a great victory vs. the Royals, giving up one run off six hits while striking out seven over seven innings. A great spot bet and unreal value on the pitcher in better current form. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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05-11-19 | Mariners +174 v. Red Sox | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (8*) I think the Red Sox are going to suffer a classic letdown here after yesterday’s big 14-1 series opening victory. The M’s won’t be lacking for motivation today after losing ten of their last 12. Felix Hernandez is only 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA, but he catches a break in facing Rick Porcello, who is just 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA. Let’s call these veteran hurlers “even” for this one. Boston is only a game over .500, so its long-term form is in question here as well. Additionally note that Seattle is still 17-13 (+5.2 units) this season vs. right-handed starters, while Boston is only 5-10 (-13.1 units) this year in all day games. Great value on the hungry visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 M’s. |
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05-10-19 | Yankees +126 v. Rays | Top | 4-3 | Win | 126 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* MONEY-MAKER) Each team sends its ace to the hill. This is a battle of division and AL leaders and I think the visitors offer great value to pull off the upset in Game 1. The Yanks hand the ball to Domingo German, while the home side goes with Tyler Glasnow. German (6-1, 2.35 ERA) enters on top form having won three straight, most recently going seven innings vs. the Twins on Sunday, giving up one run in the 4-1 victory. Glasnow (6-0, 1.47) gave up three hits over seven scoreless vs. the toothless Orioles on Friday. Despite injuries to sluggers Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, the Yanks have gone 16-6. I think Glasnow’s early remarkable numbers are unsustainable and while regression is also imminent in German’s future, I believe the Rays’ hurler has farther to fall. I’m banking on the hungry visiting side stealing Game 1. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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05-09-19 | Braves v. Diamondbacks +107 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 107 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks (10* TRADE-MARK) I had a play on the Diamondbacks in their 3-2, 13 inning win over the Rays yesterday. I like Arizona to build off that win, facing a Braves team which is struggling at the plate. For arguments sakes, let’s call these starers a “wash.” Mike Soroka and Luke Weaver faced off in Atlanta at the start of the year and Arizona won 5-1. Both were great in that game and each has been strong since. The Braves though enter after getting swept in LA and I think they’ll have a hard time producing much offense here either. Arizona on the other hand is already 13-7 (+7.3 units) this year when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. Great value on the hot home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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05-09-19 | White Sox +190 v. Indians | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (8* BLOWOUT) The Indians are overpriced here, as they continue to struggle at the plate. Cleveland won 5-3 on a walk off home run by Jose Ramirez last night, but previous to that it has been outscored 21-1 during a three-game losing streak. The visitors hand the ball to Manny Banuelos, who is 2-1 with a 5.96 ERA. He comes in off an outing to forget, giving up nine runs off ten straight hits in the third inning of his last start. Previous to that though Banuelos had been sharp, so I’m not going to over-react to one bad performance. He catches a break here as well facing the volatile Carlos Carrasco, who is 2-3 with a 5.60 ERA. Carrasco also enters off a terrible start, getting shelled for four home runs vs. the Mariners on Saturday. Note that Chicago is already 4-1 (+6.6 units) this season as an underdog in the +175 to +250 range, while Cleveland is a brutal 5-9 (-8.1 units) vs. the division thus far. I think the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 White Sox. |
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05-08-19 | Diamondbacks +137 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 137 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* BEST OF BEST) The Diamondbacks have cooled off dramatically now that Interleague play has started. Tampa has taken the first two games of this series, but I think the hungry visiting side will bounce back and take the finale this afternoon. It won’t be easy facing Charlie Morton, who is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA this season. He’s also 5-1 with a 3.68 ERA in nine career starts vs. the D-Backs. The visiting side hands the ball to Robbie Ray, who is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA. Tampa is surging right now at 11 games over .500, but note that it’s still a poor 1-3 (-2.8 units) this season at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. Additionally note that Arizona is still 8-3 (+7 units) this year as a road dog of +100 to +150. I think Tampa finally has a letdown here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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05-07-19 | White Sox +145 v. Indians | Top | 2-0 | Win | 145 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* BEST OF BEST). The White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the hill and he’s so far 2-1 with a 5.32 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs with two walks with seven K’s in a no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Thursday. Giolito has had issues with the Tribe in the past, but I think he’ll make the most of this situation, as Cleveland is forced to call up Jefry Rodriguez from Triple-A Columbus to make this start. He’s 0-1 with a 2.13 ERA, but there’s no doubt this is a difficult assignment on short notice. Chicago took Game 1 of this series 9-1 yesterday and I think the hungry Sox, with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, offer brat value to do it again on Tuesday. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 White Sox. |
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05-06-19 | Mets v. Padres +110 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres (10* TRADE-MARK) I think these pitchers are a “wash.” Jacob DeGrom is 2-3 with a 3.83 ERA for the Mets, while Chris Paddack is 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA. Paddack has been dominant, especially at home. I think the late West Coast game is detrimental to the visitors here. Also note that the Mets are just 8-12 vs. teams with winning records, while SD is 7-4 this year after having lost two of its lats three games. Great value on Paddack. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Padres. |
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05-04-19 | Nationals -110 v. Phillies | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (8*) Washington came up short in its first game vs. ex team mate Bryce Harper and the Phillies last night, but I think it offers great value to bounce back in the second. The Nationals have now lost ten of their last 14, but they have to be feeling good that they can break the slide with Patrick Corbin on the mound as he’s a solid 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA. The home side counters with Jake Arrieta who is 4-2 with a 3.46 ERA. Corbin is 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA in five starts vs. the Phillies for his career and I think he’ll help his desperate team-mates “get off the schneid.” T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals. |
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05-04-19 | Cardinals +104 v. Cubs | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8*) After yesterday’s 4-0 defeat, I look for the Cards to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. St. Louis hands the ball to Michael Wacha, who is 2-0 with a 4.78 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Yu Darvish, who is 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA. St. Louis though is already 10-5 in day games this year and 17-9 vs. right-handed starters, while the Cubs are a poor 3-7 in their last ten home games after shutting out their opponent. I like Wacha to take a step forward and I look for Darvish to take a step back. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals. |
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05-04-19 | Twins +120 v. Yankees | 7-3 | Win | 120 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins (8*) After being held to four hits in last night’s series opening loss, I look for the Twins to bounce back here in what I believe to be a favorable pitching matchup. The home side goes with JA Happ, who is 1-2 with a 4.68 ERA. Happ comes in off his best outing of the year vs. the Giants, but note that he’s a poor 3-4 with a 4.85 ERA in eight career outings vs. Minnesota. The visitors counter with Jake Odorizzi, who is 3-2 with a 3.34 ERA and who also comes off a gem of an outing, giving up four hits over seven scoreless vs. the Astros on Monday. Odorizzi is 6-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 16 appearances vs. the Yanks. Additionally note that Minnesota is still 8-5 on the road this year, while New York is only 7-7 (-9.4 units) this season as a home favorite. New York continues to play with a number of key injuries and I look for it to take a step back here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Twins. |
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05-03-19 | Nationals +153 v. Phillies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10* ULTIMATE OF ULTIMATE) The Nationals face Bryce Harper for the first time since he left and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson, who is 2-0 with a 5.82 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff, who is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA. Note though that Harper is 5 for 20 in his career vs. Hellickson. Also note that Hellickson is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in four career games vs. Washington. Eickhoff is 1-1 with a 2.88 ERA four lifetime starts vs. the Nationals, but note that Philadelphia is still a poor 7-9 (-5.2 units) this year following a victory. The stage is set for the upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals. |
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05-02-19 | Astros v. Twins +103 | 2-8 | Win | 103 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins (8*) The Astros have a chance to to even up this four game series with a win today, but I think the home side will build off last night’s 6-2 win, bouncing back after Tuesday’s 11-0 loss. The home side has to be feeling pretty confident as well with ace Jose Berrios on the hill as he’s so far 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA, including 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA at home. The visitors counter with Brad Peacock, who is 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA. Additionally note that Houston is already 4-7 (-8.3 units) this year after playing three or more straight road games, while Minnesota is 10-5 at home and 10-3 in day games. Great value on Berrios and the surging home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Twins. |
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05-02-19 | Rockies +103 v. Brewers | 11-6 | Win | 103 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8*) Freddy Peralta is 1-0 with a 7.13 ERA and he hasn’t thrown since April 16th. He’s 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts vs. Colorado for his career, but that was when he was on top form health wise. This is a difficult spot start for Peralta fresh off the IL. I definitely think that Jon Gray and the Rockies, who had their best offensive output of the season in yesterday’s win, offer great value to do it again here. Gray is 2-3 with a 3.65 ERA thus far. Colorado is 66-58 (+33.2 units) the L2 years as road dog, while Milwaukee is just 1-3 (-2.8 units) in its last four after allowing ten or more runs. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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05-02-19 | Reds +160 v. Mets | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) Tyler Mahle has struggled for the Reds this year, going 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA. But he catches a break here as his team has already taken two of three in this four game series and with a chance for a third win, I think the visitors offer great value here to pull off the upset. Mahle faces a struggling Noah Syndergaard, who is just 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA. Syndergaard has now conceded at least four runs in each of his last four outings an due has the highest ERA of the 97 pitchers who have thrown enough innings to qualify. The starters are a “wash” here in my opinion, but the home side is definitely over priced. Consider as well that the Reds are already 7-3 this year after three or more consecutive road games, while New York is a poor 1-4 as a home favorite of -150 or higher. Great value on the visitors. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Reds. |
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05-01-19 | Cardinals +153 v. Nationals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 153 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (10* GAME OF MONTH) Washington ace Max Scherzer is 1-3 with a 4.12 ERA. In nine career starts vs. the Cardinals he’s 2-4 with a 2.84 ERA. His counterpart is Miles Mikolas, who has also gotten out to a slow start by going 2-2 with a 5.29 ERA. He’s just 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA in two starts vs. the Nats. St. Louis though comes in with momentum after yesterday’s 3-2 series opening victory and I think the hungry visiting side will keep the momentum rolling. In fact the Cards have won ten of their last 12 games, while the Nationals have dropped eight of their last 11. I think Scherzer’s decline is right in front of us. Let’s take advantage. Play on the visitors. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cards. |
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04-29-19 | Dodgers v. Giants +130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 130 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Giants (10* GAME OF WEEK) I think the Dodgers stumble here in the opening game of this three game set and after coming from behind to knock off the Rockies 7-6 on Sunday. The Giants on the other hand have been outscored 24-12 by then Yankees in losing three straight at home over the weekend and clearly they’ll be out to atone for that mess. The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda, who is 4-3 with a 4.58 ERA in 11 career appearances vs. the Giants. Note though that he’s 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in six appearances in San Francisco. He’ll be opposed by the red hot Jeff Samardzija, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his five starts. Over eight career appearances vs. the Dodgers he owns a respectable 3.99 ERA as well. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. |
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04-28-19 | Indians +112 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BLACK-LABEL) The Astros won 4-3 yesterday, but I like the Tribe to respond in the finale of this three game set. The home side hands the ball to Wade Miley, who is 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA. Miley most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Twins. A date vs. the Indians is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA in six career starts vs. them. The visitors counter with Carlos Carrasco, who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA thus far. Carrasco left his last start after four scoreless innings vs. the Fish because of a knee issue, but he’s been given the green light to go here today. Note that Carrasco has now not given up a run in his last 11 innings of work. Also note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA with nine walks and 55 K’s in seven starts vs. Houston. Look for Carrasco to continue his dominance in this series. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cleveland. |
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04-27-19 | Rockies +112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 112 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockies (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Braves’ Mike Foltynewicz is coming off a career campaign, but this will be his first start of the season after starting on the IL. He faces a difficult opponent and counterpart as well in Jon Gray. Note that in eight career stars vs. the Rockies Foltynewicz is 0-4 with a 4.100 ERA, giving up 20 runs off 34 hits over 35 frames opposed. And that’s bad news overall for a Braves team which has lost three of its last four. Gray is 2-1 this year, given yup only two runs over 19 2/3’s innings of work. Note that in five career outings vs. the Braves Gray is 3-0 with a tiny 1.64 ERA with 38 K’s over 33 innings of work. Great value on the visitors here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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04-26-19 | Yankees v. Giants +104 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (10* TOP SIDE) This is a good pitching matchup, but I think the home side will find a way to deliver the goods vs. the still banged up Yankees. For arguments sakes, lets call the pitchers a “wash.” John Paxton is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA for the Yanks, while Madison Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA for San Francisco. The late night West coast game favors the Giants at home anyways, but the National League format won’t be doing Paxton any favors tonight either. New York is just 36-46 (-11.2 units) on the road when the money line is between +125 and -125, while the Giants are 4-1 in their last five after two or more straight victories. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Giants. |
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04-25-19 | Tigers +176 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I think the Tigers offer great value to bounce back after yesterday’s 11-4 loss vs. what I feel to be the over-priced Red Sox. Detroit took both games in a double-header the day prior. The home side hands the ball to the volatile Rick Porcello, who is 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA. He’ll square off against Jordan Zimmermann, who is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA. I’m not reading too much into Boston’s offensive explosion yesterday, as this is a team which has struggled mightily with consistency at the plate all season. Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera is on a ten-game hitting streak. Boston is over priced, considering the form of Porcello right now. Play on the Tigers. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Tigers. |
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04-24-19 | Brewers +102 v. Cardinals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (9* BLACK-LABEL) Enough is enough here. The Brewers have lost the first two games of this series, but i think the visitors will find a way to bounce back in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, who is 2-2 with a 5.92 ERA. Chacin won his first two starts of the year, including the season opener vs. St. Louis, giving up three runs with seven K’s over six innings in the 5-4 win. Chacin most recently comes in off a no-decision to the Dodgers on Friday, allowing two runs over five innings. The home side counters with Adam Wainwright, who is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and who has had plenty of success throughout his career against Milwaukee, but who I believe will come up short this afternoon. Wainwright looked very unspectacular in his latest outing against the Mets on Friday, allowing four runs off eight hits with three walks over three innings in the loss. I think the “hungrier” team gets the job done this afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. |
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04-21-19 | Braves +110 v. Indians | Top | 11-5 | Win | 110 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Indians won Game 1 of yesterday’s double header 8-4 and the Braves then rallied for an 8-7 win in the second. Both of these starters have been great so far and it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either Max Fried (2-0, 0.92 ERA) or Shane Bieber (2-0, 1.71) to come out on top tonight. I think the difference are in the numbers today though, as note that ATL is a perfect 4-0 (+4.4 units) already this year after scoring eight or more runs, while Cleveland is still only 19-23 (-19.5 units) the last two season in inter-league contests. Good value on the Braves and Fried here. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. |
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04-20-19 | Red Sox +136 v. Rays | Top | 6-5 | Win | 136 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* BLACK-LABEL) Boston took the opener of this three game set last night and I think the hungry visiting side offers great value to do it again here. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello (0-3, 11.12 ERA) who fortunately can only go one way his performance. Boston has yet to even win a series this year though, so with a victory tonight it’ll accomplish that feat finally. Porcello has struggled, but the veteran is still 14-10 with a 3.24 ERA in 28 starts vs. the Rays. Charlie Morton (2-0, 2.18) has been exception so far for the Rays and it’s difficult to point out to many negative things about the veteran, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Note as well that Boston is 34-29 (+16.3 units) in its last 63 as a road underdog, while TB is just 34-35 (-10.3 units) in its last 69 as a home favorite in the -105 to -150 range. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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04-19-19 | Reds +142 v. Padres | Top | 3-2 | Win | 142 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* MONEY-MAKER) I had a play on the Reds in their upset win over the Padres last night and I think they offer great value to do it again here. The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani, who is 0-1 with a 7.43 ERA so far. DeSclafani most recently gave up four runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Cards. Last year he had a respectable 4.18 ERA on the road. Fortunately for DeSclafani, he won’t have to pitch very well to produce his best effort of the season. He also benefits facing the Friars’ Matt Strahm (0-2, 4.26) who comes in off a decent effort vs. the D-Backs, allowing no runs over five innings of work. Strahm lost his first two starts and the book is still out at this point as far as I’m concerned. I give the small nod to DeSclafani here and I like the Reds to build off their win from last night. Overall great value vs. a Padres team which has likely been performing over its head to open the season. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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04-18-19 | Reds +127 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 127 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* TRADE-MARK) Reds’ veteran and new-comer Tanner Roark (0-0, 4.30 ERA) comes in off his best outing so far for the Reds, holding the Cards to one run off six hits with a walk and five K’s over 5 1/3’s innings of work. The home side counters with rookie Chris Paddack (0-0, 1.29) who so far has looked exemplary, but whose sample size is clearly too small to make any definite conclusions. I will point out though that Roark has a long history of success vs. the Friars, going 3-1 with a very respectable 2.90 ERA and 0.742 WHIP and .162 opponents’ batting average. Cincinnati has lost five straight, but I think it punches one into the win column here in this favorable matchup. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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04-17-19 | Red Sox +106 v. Yankees | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Yanks scored the 8-0 win in the first game of this mini two-game series between these AL East foes, but I think the scuffling Red Sox will bounce back here and find a way to deliver the goods tonight. Boston’s 6-12 start is its worst since 1996. But I think this is a great spot to bounce back in. The Yankees are still majority banged up and I think that’s a factor here. The home side goes with JA Happ, who is 0-2 with an 8.76 ERA, most recently allowing six runs off nine hits over four innings to the light-hitting White Sox on Friday. Boston turns to Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 8.40), who also comes in struggling, most recently giving up five runs to the Jays on Thursday. Both pitchers have had success vs. their respective opponent today, so that area is a “wash.” Note though that Boston is 34-28 (+17.3 units) the last two seasons as a road dog of +100 or higher. Additionally note that New York is a poor 1-3 (-5.7 units) already this year after a win by four runs of more. I’m banking on Boston bouncing back. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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04-16-19 | Indians -101 v. Mariners | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BLACK-LABEL) The Tribe welcomed back Jason Kipnis and he made a big impact in last night’s 6-4 win. Cleveland won’t be lacking for motivation here after its poor start. The Mariners though look poised to go on a run of mediocrity after their hot start. The home side goes with Shane Bieber, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Bieber is now 8-0 with a 3.25 ERA over his entire career on the road after a 4-0 win over the Tigers on Thursday. The home side goes with Mike Leake, who is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA. Leake gave up three home runs in a no-decision vs. the Royals on Thursday. I like the hungry visiting side to find a way to get the job done here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tribe. |
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04-14-19 | Mets v. Braves +140 | 3-7 | Win | 140 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (8* MONEY-MAKER) The Braves won 11-7 last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. The Mets go with ace Jacob DeGrom, who enters off a terrible outing vs. the Twins at home, allowing six runs over four innings in a 14-8 loss. Julio Teheran is just 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA, but he enters off a hard-fought victory over Colorado. DeGrom is 6-5 with a 1.70 ERA in 17 starts vs. the Braves, while Teheran is 9-7 with a 2.39 ERA in 25 games vs. the Mets. This is great value on the hot hitting home side. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. |
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04-12-19 | Astros v. Mariners +121 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) Both teams come in on top form. The Mariners return home after a 6-1 road trip, eager to maintain their focus in their first game back from an extended trip. The Astros come in having won six straight, including a recent sweep of the Yankees. Seattle though has homered in all 15 games so far this year and no other club has scored six or more runs in 13 of its first 15 games. The M’s go with Wade LeBlanc, who is 2-0 with a 4.76 ERA, while the Astros hand the ball to Wade Miley, who enters 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA. I think the day off doesn’t do any favors for Houston and I expect it to struggle in this difficult road park. Great value on the hottest team in baseball! T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Mariners. |
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04-12-19 | White Sox +207 v. Yankees | 7-6 | Win | 207 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (8* MONEY-MAKER) The Yankees are clearly the better team on paper. New York though remains pretty banged up at this point. JA Happ has had issues as well to start the season. I think the White Sox offer great value to steal Game 1 of this three-game set. New York was struggling heading into a series at Baltimore. The Yanks swept that series, but then got swept themselves by the Astros in their next matchup. The door is wide open for the equally as struggling White Sox. The visitors go with Lucas Giolito, who is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA. Giolito was brilliant in his opener and poor in his second outing. Happ, who is 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA, gave up two runs off five hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Saturday. It was the second straight time he was unable to last five innings and he’s already allowed three homers over two starts. The Yanks are severely over-priced here in my opinion, swinging the value to the hungry dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 White Sox. |
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04-10-19 | Twins +195 v. Mets | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins (8*) I had a play on the Twins in their upset victory over the Mets yesterday and I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value to pull off the upset here as well. I think that Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard are in fact very evenly matched. So that makes the home side drastically over priced in my estimation. Minnesota is 108-99 (+12.3 units) the L2 years in all “night” games, while New York is just 1-3 (-3.7 units) at home this season. Great value on the underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Twins. |
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04-10-19 | Indians v. Tigers +137 | 1-4 | Win | 137 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8*) The Indians have taken the first two games of this series, but I think the home side offers great value to bounce back in the finale. Clearly it won’t be easy facing the Indians’ Trevor Bauer (1-0, 0.64 ERA), but Matt Boyd (0-1, 3.88) who has already racked up 23 K’s in 11 1/3’s innings this year. All good things must come to an end. Look for Bauer to take a step back and for the Tigers to salvage the finale. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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04-09-19 | Brewers -117 v. Angels | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -117 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10*) I think the Brewers offer great value to bounce back in the second game of this three-game interleague series after falling 5-2 yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Freddy Peralta, who is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA. Most recently he went eight shutout vs. the Reds, striking out 11 and walking none. The home side counters with the volatile Matt Harvey, who is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. Harvey gave up eight runs off ten hits over four innings in a loss to Texas on Thursday. I think we’re getting great value on the hard-hitting visiting side in this match-up. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. |
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04-09-19 | Twins +199 v. Mets | 14-8 | Win | 199 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins (8*) So far Kyle Gibson has struggled this year for Minnesota. He’s 0-0 with a 9.64 ERA, after finishing 10-13 with a 3.63 ERA last season. Gibson’s numbers last year were his best, but a long lay off between his final spring start and the regular season is what is being contributed to his shaky performance thus far (note that he owned a 3.57 ERA on the road last year.) Jacob DeGrom is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and while he struck out 14 Marlins in a win on Wednesday, I think he’ll have his hands full with this difficult interleague matchup. Note that the Twins are already 2-0 this year following a loss, while the Mets are just 4-5 (-8.1 units) in their last nine as a favorite of -200 or higher. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Twins. |
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04-09-19 | Blue Jays +205 v. Red Sox | 7-5 | Win | 205 | 21 h 0 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (8*) I think the struggling Boston Red Sox and the struggling Chris Sale are over-priced here. The Jays turn to Matt Shoemaker, who is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Most recently he gave up two hits and a walk while striking out eight over seven innings vs. the Orioles on Wednesday. So far he’s given up zero runs and struck out 15 as a Blue Jay. Sale is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA. Clearly Sale is going to “right the ship,” but until that does happen, I think the “hotter” underdog pitcher has much more than “punchers chance” today. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Jays. |
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04-09-19 | Indians v. Tigers +148 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8*) Corey Kluber is 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA. The Indians are playing a lot better after a slow start, but the Tigers have been just as hot. Detroit starter Jordan Zimmermann is 0-0 over his first two starts, but he comes in sporting a minuscule 0.66 ERA. The Tribe are just 36-36 (-9.4 units) the last two years with a road money line between -105 to -150, while the Tigers are 3-0 at home still. I think the home side offers great value in an upset role here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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04-08-19 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +114 | 3-4 | Win | 114 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8*) The Dodgers come in off a series win in Colorado, but I think they’ll have their hands full here in this difficult road venue. While Miles Mikolas has struggled over his first two starts to open the season, I think it’s clearly much too early to punch the panic button quite yet. Mikolas was 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA last season, including 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA at home. Hyun-Jin Ryu is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA to open the season, but I’ll point out that LA is just 4-6 (-6.3 units) after three straight wins by four runs or more. I like Mikolas to bounce back at home with his best effort of the year. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Cards. |
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04-08-19 | Yankees +142 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* TRADE-MARK) Clearly it wouldn’t be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these talented sides to win here. The Yankees’ are dealing with injuries, but after a slow start the Yanks are “firing on all cylinders” after sweeping the Orioles in Baltimore. I think that New York carries that offensive momentum over here. Masahiro Tanaka is already 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA, while Justin Verlander is 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA. I’m calling the pitchers a “wash.” Note though that New York is interestingly 2-0 in its last two after scoring 15 or more runs in its previous outing, while Houston is still only 1-3 vs. the AL East this year. Great value on the hot hitting visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. |
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04-08-19 | Pirates +110 v. Cubs | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (8*) I think Jameson Taillon, who is 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA and the visiting Pirates offer great value to pull off the upset in the opener of this three-game set. The Pirates come in off a 7-5 win over the Reds. The Cubs come in on the other end of the spectrum having lost seven of their last eight, most recently a 4-2 setback at Milwaukee. Production at the plate has been the main issue for the Cubbies. The Pirates on the other hand have been hitting the ball well. Note that last year Taillon was 2-0 in three starts vs. the Cubs, including a 5-4 win vs. Lester on July 31st in which he allowed three runs over seven innings of work. Pull the trigger on the slight upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates. |
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04-07-19 | A's +143 v. Astros | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: A’s (10* TRADE-MARK) The Astros have taken the first two games of this series, but I think that Mike Fiers and the visitors offer great value here. Fiers is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA to open the season and while Brad Peacock shone in his first outing for the Astros, giving up one run over 6 2/3’s inning in a 2-1 win over the Rangers on April 1st, I think he’ll have his hands full with an A’s team which is still 3-0 (+3 units) in all “day” games this year and 40-35 (+9.8 units) in its last 75 after having lost three of its last four. Great value on the hungry visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Oakland. |
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04-07-19 | Blue Jays +143 v. Indians | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (8*) MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching primarily, but there’s no doubting that the Jays overall will be “hungry” to break out of their early season “funk,” starting just 3-7. The Tribe have started to find their way in this series, they come in at 5-3. Clearly Mike Clevinger poses a difficult task for the Jays today, as he would give up one hit over seven innings vs. the White Sox in his opener. Stroman owns a 1-0, 2.91 ERA record in six career appearances vs. the Tribe and I believe he and the hungry visiting side offer great value in an upset role this afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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04-07-19 | Twins +115 v. Phillies | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins (8*) Jose Berrios (1-0, 1.84 ERA) makes just his third start in eight games for Minnesota. On Opening Day he’d strike out ten batters over 7 2/3’s innings in a 2-0 win over the Indians. The home side counters with Zach Eflin (1-0, 0.00) who struck out nine and gave up three hits in an 8-2 win over the Nationals in his opener. After losing 10-4 in the opener the Twins bounced back with a solid 6-2 win yesterday and I think the hard-hitting visiting side is the correct call behind the red hot and rested Berrios. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Twins. |
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04-06-19 | Yankees v. Orioles +166 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (10* TRADE-MARK). I think JA Happ and the Yanks are over-priced once again here. New York is dealing with several key injuries to sluggers and starters and I don’t think that Happ has that big of an advantage over his counterpart Dylan Bundy either. New York has 11 players on the IL, but it still managed the 8-4 win in the series opener. Happ though, who is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA, looks ripe for the picking in my opinion. Happ would give up four runs off five hits win one walk over four innings in a loss to these very Orioles on Sunday and it’s not going to get any easier in my opinion in this difficult road venue. Bundy, who is 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA, most recently gave up three runs off two hits with five walks over 3.2 innings to the Yanks last weekend. I like Bundy to match Happ inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Orioles. |
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04-05-19 | Cubs +117 v. Brewers | 10-13 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (8*) The Cubs are 1-5 and the Brewers are 6-1. It’s the start of the season, so pushing the panic button, or reading too much into a win streak at this point is clearly ridiculous. But after such a slow start, clearly we can count on Chicago coming into this one razor focused. I like Cubs’ starter Jose Quintana (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to help “right the ship” as well here. Quintana pitched four innings of relief vs. the Rangers on Saturday, given yup two runs off six hits while striking out eight. The abbreviated appearance is a definite “plus” for the crafty southpaw coming into this difficult matchup. The home goes with Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 3.60) who gave up two runs off six hits and a walk over five frames in a win over the Cards on Saturday. Hard to say too many negative things about Woodruff, as he has in fact been solid across the board. I simply feel this is a bad spot for the Brewers today. I give Quintana the nod on the mound here and the hungry Cubs the nod at the plate. Great value. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Cubs. |
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04-05-19 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks +118 | Top | 8-15 | Win | 118 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10*) Both of these starting pitchers were rocked in their respective season debuts. Each of these teams has gotten out to a poor overall start as well to the 2019 campaign. Suffice it to say, I can’t understate how important I think that the home field advantage will be in this one. Rick Porcello (0-1, 13.50 ERA) goes against the Diamondbacks’ Zack Godley (0-1, 11.81). But despite Arizona’s record, it’s been hitting the ball well, .280 collectively with 14 home runs and 22 doubles in seven games. Boston’s issues are coming both on the mound and at the plate this year and I think it’s not going to get any easier for it here. Great overall value on the home side in this one. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 D-Backs. |
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04-05-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +115 | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8*) I think this is a good spot to pull the trigger on the underdog. Kenta Maeda (1-0, 4.05 ERA) was very lucky to earn a win in his first start, giving up three runs off five hits over 6.2 innings of work. However note that all three runs given up were solo dingers. Clearly a performance like that isn’t going to get it done at Coors Field. The Rockies’ Tyler Anderson (0-1, 9.00) comes off an outing to forget, allowing five runs over five innings to the Marlins on Saturday. Note that Anderson owned a highly respectable 3.99 ERA at home last season as well. After a great start to the season, I think the Dodgers finally take a step back in this difficult road venue. The Rockies on the other hand are looking to move back to .500 after a slow start. Great value on the hungry home side. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Rockies. |
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04-04-19 | Yankees v. Orioles +180 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (8* MONEY-MAKER) I think the home side offers great value to pull off the upset here. New York isn’t playing well to open the year as it deals with a few injuries. The Orioles on the other hand have looked a bit better and I think they’ll carry that recent momentum over here. Ten players in total are on the IL for New York and so far it’s just 2-4 to open the season. Baltimore comes in off a 5-3 loss in Toronto yesterday, but it’s still won four of its last five. The visitors turn to James Paxton (0-1, 1.59 ERA) who gave up two runs and four hits over five innings in an unfortunate loss to these very Orioles last weekend. The home side counters with Alex Cobb (0-0, 0.00) who makes his first start of the year. Cobb endured a poor 2018, but he’ll be confident here as he’s 7-4 with a 2.90 ERA in 17 career appearances vs. the Evil Empire. All signs point to a big upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Orioles. |
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04-03-19 | Cardinals -103 v. Pirates | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (10* TRADE-MARK) The Cards stole Game 1 of this series 6-5 in 11 innings in Monday and after a day off, I look for the visitors to build off that win. "The offense scratched and clawed," Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said. "I mean, what do you say about that kind of game? It's crazy. That's what this team does. It speaks to the competitiveness of this team and the desire of this team. This is a good team with a lot of character and a lot of fight to it." Cards’ starter Miles Mikolas (0-1, 9.00 ERA) and Pirates’ starter Jameson Taillon (0-1, 6.00), would clearly love ‘do overs’ after their first game of the year. Mikolas though is 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Pirates. Taillon is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA in eight starts vs. St. Louis. I like Mikolas to bounce back here; great value. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. |
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04-02-19 | Rockies +131 v. Rays | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* BLACK-LABEL) The only loss the Rays have suffered this year was when ace Blake Snell took the mound. Snell was rocked for five earned runs off six hits with two walks over six innings vs. the Astros. The Rockies’ Kyle Freeland looked great in his first start though, giving up two hits and one earned run over seven innings of work. After yesterday’s 7-1 setback, I like the hard-hitting visiting side to respond. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Rockies. |
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04-01-19 | Orioles +150 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-5 | Win | 150 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles (10* TRADE-MARK) I think that the home side is getting far too much respect here. The Orioles come in brimming with confidence after taking two of three in New York. The Jays went 2-2 in their opening series vs. the Tigers. Baltimore turns to David Hess, while Toronto goes with Sean Reid-Foley. Foley is being forced into a starters role due to an injury to Clayton Richards. Over seven starts last year Reid-Foley was 2-4 with a 5.13 ERA. Hess on the other faced the Jays three times last year and went 1-1 with a minuscule 0.95 ERA. Great price on the “better” team here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Orioles. |
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03-31-19 | Giants +143 v. Padres | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Giants (10* SUPER SIDE) 23 year old Chris Paddack will make his major league debut today for the Padres. Paddack returns from Tommy John Surgery and he’d post a sharp 3-1, 1.76 ERA and 24 K’s vs. three walks over 15 1/3’s innings of work. Great numbers, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie. Giants’ starter Jeff Samardija’s best days are far behind him, but I think the veteran will have more than enough in the tank in his first start of the year. The Shark was just 1-5 with a 6.25 ERA for San Francisco last year, hampered by injury for most of it (note that he is 8-3 with a 3.64 ERA in 17 games vs. the Friars as well.) I think this is great line value for sure. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 San Fran. |
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03-29-19 | Tigers +119 v. Blue Jays | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8* SITUATIONAL LINE MISTAKE) The Tigers won 2-0 in extra innings in yesterday’s opener and I believe they offer great value here as well on Friday night. Detroit goes with Matt Boyd, who had a 9-13 record last year to go along with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Keep your eyes on healthy Tigers’ sluggers Miguel Cabrera and Nicholas Castellanos. The offensively inept home side counters with Matt Shoemaker, who posted a 4.94 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over seven starts last season. I like Boyd here and I think that’s enough to tip the scales in favor of the hungry visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tigers. |
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03-28-19 | Diamondbacks +145 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-12 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 13 m | Show |
: T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* GAME OF MONTH) Two teams which will almost assuredly be “duking it out” for supremacy in the National League at the end of the season, collide on Opening Night in Chavez Ravine. The Diamondbacks’ Zack Greinke returns to his old stomping grounds and I believe the veteran offers great value here to pull off the upset. Greinke had a disappointing 4.37 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his first year with the Diamondbacks, but since then he’s posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the last two years. Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the nod here for the home side because ace Clayton Kershaw is on the shelf for a couple more weeks. Ryu had a decent spring and is coming off a career campaign in 2018 (7-3, 1.97), but I still think he’s getting far too much respect on Opening night. I’ll grab the hungry visiting side and Greinke to open the 2019 season! T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Diamondbacks. |
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03-28-19 | Tigers +127 v. Blue Jays | 2-0 | Win | 127 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8* TOP DOG DESTROYER) Marcus Stroman had a strong spring, but he had a terrible 2018, going 4-9 with a 5.54 ERA. Stroman is the best pitcher on the Jays staff, but the “new look” Jays are going to have some trouble with Tigers’ veteran Joran Zimmermann. Zimmermann’s best days are clearly far behind him, but he continues to put forth a workman’s like effort. I think it’s worthy to note as well that Zimmermann faced Toronto once last year and he’d give up one run over seven innings in the victory. I think the hungry visiting side pulls off the slight upset on Opening night. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox +145 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* TRADE-MARK) With a chance to take a “choke hold” on this series, I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox to find a way to get the job done in Game 3. Boston’s Porcello has appeared in 10.2 innings so far in the playoffs and he’s given up five runs. The Dodgers’ Buehler has been shelled for ten runs over 16 innings in the post-season thus far. Note that LA is 0-5 in its last five following a day off, while Boston is 5-0 in its last five playoff road games and 7-1 in Porcello’s last eight starts. The Red Sox are hammering out 6.18 RPG in the playoffs. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Red Sox. |
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10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +113 | 2-7 | Win | 113 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I’m expecting the Brewers to stay alive another day and push this to a seventh and deciding game. LA goes with Hyun Jin Ryu, who wasn’t all that spectacular in Game 2 of this series, giving up two runs over 4.1 innings of work. In that game Wade Miley would throw opposite Ryu and he was spectacular, going six shutout innings. Over 13 innings of work against LA this year, Miley allowed only one run. Note that Milwaukee is 8-0 in its last eight following a day off, while LA is still only 4-12 in its last 16 NLCS road games. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Brewers. |
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10-16-18 | Red Sox +126 v. Astros | Top | 8-2 | Win | 126 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* GAME OF WEEK) Based entirely upon the starting pitching. The Red Sox Nate Eovaldi gave up one run over seven innings in his playoff debut last week and he’s had plenty of success against the Astros throughout his career, posting a 3.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The Astros’ Dallas Keuchel comes in off a decent season and he’s enjoyed plenty of success in the playoffs, but note that he’s had a hell of a time whenever he’s faced the Red Sox, giving up 20 runs off 28 hits over just 19.2 innings of work. I’m look for Eovaldi to get the better of Keuchel. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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10-13-18 | Astros +111 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 111 | 59 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Astros (10* GAME OF WEEK) Justin Verlander and Chris Sale. Clearly it’s not very difficult to make a convincing argument for either of these elite hurlers. Take a look at these line-ups as well, they’re pretty evenly matched, with a lot of power and talent from top to bottom. So if either of these starters and either of these line-ups can beat the other “on any given Sunday,” where’s the advantage here? It’s two fold. I do indeed believe that the experience that Verlander brings to the table in this pressure packed situation plays into it (along with the experience the Astros have as a team), as well as noting that Houston is 58-24 (+25.8 units) on the road this season and 29-16 (+1.5 units) already after three or more consecutive victories. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Astros. |
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10-08-18 | Red Sox +160 v. Yankees | Top | 16-1 | Win | 160 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* GAME OF WEEK) These teams are evenly matched. While Luis Severino owns the advantage on the mound, I don’t think it’s by as much as the bookmakers would like us to believe. The Red Sox’ Eovaldi was 6-7 with a 3.71 ERA this year. He was supposed to be used out of the bullpen, but he’s bumped up to make this start. He posted a steady 1.14 WHIP with 97 strikeouts over 109 innings. Severino had an unreal first half and a terrible second half for the Yanks. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the hard-throwing right-hander, I simply feel he’s over-priced here. As note that the Sox are 7-2 in their last nine American League night road games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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10-07-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +165 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 165 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* TRADE-MARK) No sweep LA fans. After getting shutout in LA over the first two games (6-0, 3-0), I definitely look for the Braves to “get off the schneid” in front of the home town crowd. The Dodgers’ send Walker Buehler to the hill and he’s had a remarkable rookie season. He went 6.2 shutout innings in Game 163 in his team’s 4-2 win over the Rockies. The Braves turn to Sean Newcomb, who had a strong first half and sub-par second. With the shift in venue though, I think LA comes in complacent and takes the foot off the gas. The Braves’ bats have been quiet so far, but that ends tonight. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Braves. |
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10-05-18 | Indians +133 v. Astros | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Indians’ Corey Kluber finished 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 215 innings of work. He was 9-4 on the road. Over 60.1 innings against the Astros he’s posted a very respectable 2.83 ERA. The Astros’ Justin Verlander was 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 214 innings this season. He’s been great throughout the postseason, but he’s struggled against Cleveland whenever he’s faced it, posting the poor 4.71 ERA over 52 career innings opposed. I’m taking Kluber in this one, as this has been one matchup which has completely confounded Verlander. Kluber on the other hand has made short work of the Astros throughout his career. Bank on that happening again here. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Tribe. |
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10-04-18 | Braves +160 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* GAME OF MONTH) The Braves go with the red hot Mike Foltynewicz, who posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in the regular season. He’s had difficulties with the Dodgers in the past, but that was then and this is now. Note that the Braves are averaging 4.69 RPG, which ranks ninth overall. The pitching staff posted a 3.75 ERA, ranked seventh. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu instead of ace Clayton Kershaw. He posted a 1.97 ERA and 1.01 WHOP over 15 starts this year. He’s had a lot of success against the Braves in the past, but once again, that was then and this is now. LA averaged 4.93 RPG, ranked fifth and the pitching staff posted a 3.38 ERA, ranked second. I ultimately think that the Dodgers get caught wondering why they didn’t put Kershaw in to start this one and I like Foltynewicz to continue his recent surge. Great value. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. |
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10-03-18 | A's +165 v. Yankees | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oakland Athletics (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Severino is completely over priced here. It was tale of two seasons for the big southpaw, as he’d go 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA overall. Before the All Star game he was 14-2 with a 2.31 ERA and after the mid-summer classic he was 5-6 with a 5.57 ERA (he’s also just 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA in four postseason starts.) The A’s will be starting with Liam Hendricks today in what is referred to as an “opening technique.” Hendricks did it eight times this year and went 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA. He was sent to the minor mid-season, but since returning he’s posted a 1.38 ERA in 12 appearances. Note that the A’s are 47-34 (+19.6 units) on the road this season, while New York is just 16-17 (-7.5 units) in its last 33 against teams with winning records. Great value on the hungry visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 A’s. |
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10-02-18 | Rockies +126 v. Cubs | 2-1 | Win | 126 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This is a difficult spot for both clubs. Each had a one-game playoff yesterday to decide its division and each lost. Colorado fell 5-2 to the Dodgers, while the Cubs lost 3-1 to the Brewers. The winner of this game will then head to Milwaukee for the NLDS. Both pitchers have been superb, so that parts a “wash” in my opinion. The difference is the the Rockies are 8-1 in their last nine National League night road games in which they’re an underdog in the +105 to +125 range. This one has “upset” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Colorado. |
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10-01-18 | Rockies +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* BLACK-LABEL) Two really great pitchers here. But in a “one and done” format, anything can happen. And in a situation like that, with German Marquez as hot as he is right now, I think the value swings to the underdog here. Walker Buehler has been amazing as well and he’s had plenty of success against the Rockies already this season and throughout his career (so too has Marquez against the Dodgers, both this year and lifetime.) With these starters a “wash” then, I think the Rockies in fact have the advantage at the plate (note as well the Colorado is 7-2 in its last nine National League day road games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range.) LA is overpriced, play on the hungry underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rockies. |
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09-28-18 | Tigers +194 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* TRADE-MARK) Are the Brewers better at the plate than the Tigers? Absolutely. Is Zach Davies worthy of having a line of this size against Jordan Zimmermann? I say unequivocally, NO! Davies is supremely over-valued here in my opinion. Zimmermann is 7-8 with a 4.31 ERA and he comes in off a decent outing against the Royals. Note that he comes in sporting a respectable 3.99 ERA on the road. Davies is 2-7 with a 4.65 ERA and he’s split his time between the major and minors all year, while also spending a stint on the DL. Note that he’s 1-5 with a 6.35 ERA in all “night” games as well. Great value, play on Detroit. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tigers. |
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09-27-18 | Pirates +150 v. Cubs | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* GAME OF YEAR) I’m expecting the Pirates’ Trevor Williams to out-duel his veteran counterpart tonight. Williams is 14-9 with a 3.04 ERA and he comes in off back-to-back strong performances against the dangerous Brewers. He’s now allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of this last 12 outings. He’s also 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA on the road and 9-5 with a 2.95 ERA in all “night” games. Lester is 17-6 with a 3.43 ERA, including 6-4 with a 3.96 ERA at home. Note though that the Cubs are just 2-7 in their last nine National League evening home contests in which they’re a favorite in the -135 to -165 range. I like Williams to continue his hot play and get the better of Lester. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Pirates. |
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09-26-18 | Brewers +102 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 102 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* TRADE-MARK) I think Chacin and the Brewers can get the job done here on on the road on Wednesday night. Chacin is 14-8 with a 3.61 ERA and he’s consistently been at his on the road all season, coming into this one sporting the strong 9-3, 3.29 ERA record to this point. The Cards’ Gant is 7-6 with a 3.53 ERA and he for the most part has been sharp all year. Gant though comes in with the rather pedestrian 5-5, 4.01 ERA record at home. I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is a sharp 7-2 in its last nine National League road night games as an underdog in the +100 to +125 range. Pull the trigger on the under-valued underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. |
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09-25-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +181 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 181 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the big home dog. The Dodgers’ Walker Buehler is 7-5 with a 2.74 ERA and overall he’s been fantastic. I simply feel that he’s over-priced in this difficult road venue. The Diamondbacks’ Matt Koch comes in with a serviceable 5-5, 4.26 ERA record. The third-year pro has admittedly been hit or miss this year, but he’s consistently been at his best at home with a sharp 2.92 ERA. These line-ups are not evenly matched, as Arizona enjoys the advantage at home. I smell an upset. Great value, play on the Diamondbacks. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. |
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09-25-18 | Braves +135 v. Mets | 7-3 | Win | 135 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Noah Syndergaard is 12-4 with a 3.36 ERA and he’s been solid overall this season. Syndergaard though plays for a team which often has trouble finding consistency at the plate on a nigh-to-night basis. And that leaves the door open for the hard-hitting Braves’ and the Hungry Toussaint, who comes in with a very respectable 2-1, 4.10 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. I like Toussaint to throw deep. Great value, play on ATL. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Mets. |
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09-24-18 | Phillies +125 v. Rockies | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* GAME OF WEEK) I think Eflin and the Phillies can get the job done at Coors Field on Monday night. Eflin is 11-7 with a 4.09 ERA and he finally got back on track after a rough stretch with a decent effort against the Marlins last time out. Eflin’s been better at home than on the road, but he’s been consistent in all “night” contests with a 9-6, 3.96 ERA. The Rockies’ Anderson is just 6-9 with a 4.76 ERA and he’s struggled in the thin air of Colorado, going just 2-6 with a 4.92 ERA at home so far. I like Eflin to build off his last start. Great value, play on Philadelphia. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Phillies. |
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09-24-18 | Marlins +220 v. Nationals | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on the under-valued underdog in my opinion. The Marlins’ Alcantara is 2-1 with 2.35 ERA He was sharp against these very Nationals last week and I think he can carry that momentum over in the Nation’s capital. Washington goes with Strasburg, who is 9-7 with a 3.83 ERA. He’s been sharp since returning from the DL, but I think Alcantara can match the “on again, off again” Nats’ flamethrower frame for frame. And for me, that means that the value swings to the underdog. Play on the Fish. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Marlins. |
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09-23-18 | Twins +176 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 176 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Twins (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think the Twins will bounce back here after yesterday’s slim 3-2 defeat. Minnesota’s Gibson has thrown better than what his win/loss record would indicate. 8-13 with a 3.78 ERA, he gave up five runs and struck out six over seven innings in a win over the Royals on Sunday. He was staked to an early lead and was then able to go after the strike zone, which led to the elevated runs allowed. Despite that the six year pro has to be feeling confident here as he owns a very respectable 3.54 ERA on the road. The A’s Cahill is 6-3 with a 3.77 ERA who returns from the DL after a couple of weeks off with a back issue. He’s been given the green light to go today, but he’ll be on a “short leash.” It’s the perfect opportunity for Gibson (and us!) to take advantage of. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Twins. |
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09-23-18 | Brewers v. Pirates +112 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
NO ACTION PITCHING CHNAGE |
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09-22-18 | Mariners +104 v. Rangers | Top | 13-0 | Win | 104 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) I like the M’s to bounce back after yesterday’s 8-3 setback. Marco Gonzalez has been decent all year, he’s 12-9 with a 4.28 ERA and he most recently went five innings in a no-decision to LA on Sunday, allowing three runs off six hits and striking out six (owns a 3.31 ERA in all “night” games.) The Rangers’ Minor is 12-7 with a 4.14 ERA and the seven year veteran continues to pitch consistently almost every time he takes the mound. These are two pretty good starters going head to head here and I believe they’re a “wash” for the most part. The difference? Seattle is 27-23 against left-handed starters this season, while Texas is just 20-30 against southpaws. Look for Seattle to bounce back on Saturday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 M’s. |
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09-21-18 | Rockies +115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 115 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) German Marquez has been on fire over the last month and he’s been fantastic on the road overall this year. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on a play of this magnitude. Marquez, who is 12-10 with a 3.96 ERA, comes in off back-to-back dominating outings and note that he’s 7-4 with a 2.74 ERA on the road. The Diamondbacks’ Godley is 14-10 with a 4.79 ERA. After a shaky start he’s been much better over the second half, but he still owns a pedestrian 4.50 ERA in all “night” games. Godley’s been hit or miss this year, while Marquez is clearly getting stronger as the season comes to a close. I look for that trend to continue here. Great value, play on Colorado. NOTE: Greinke snow in for the D-Backs. THIS PLAY IS STILL VALID. Greinke’s 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA and he’s been better at home than on the road, but I don’t think the last minute date changing is helping the veteran out too much at this point of the season. The advantage is still to Marquez. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rockies. |
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09-21-18 | Mets v. Nationals +125 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Mets’ deGrom has been fantastic this year, he is one of just two pitchers with a sub 2.00 ERA (Sale as well.) He’s 8-9 with a 1.78 ERA and clearly it’s difficult to say anything negative about him, but as deGrom’s win/loss record would show, he unfortunately plays on a team which has a hard time producing runs most nights. Joe Ross will be hungry to take advantage. He’s 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA and he comes in off back-to-back no-decisions in his first action since July 2017. Ross has the tools in place to match deGrom frame for frame. Great value, give me the hard-hitting underdog home side in this one. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Nationals. |
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