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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-24-19 | Indians v. Blue Jays +118 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* BANKROL BUILDER) Marcus Stroman is 6-10 with a 3.06 ERA for Toronto and he could be throwing for the Jays for the very last time tonight. Stroman is one of the big names rumored to be shipped out by the trade deadline, so clearly the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be lacking for motivation today. Toronto looks to build off its 2-1, ten-inning victory last night vs. Shane Bieber, who is 9-3 with a 3.69 ERA. Note that Stroman is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in seven appearances vs. Cleveland, while Bieber is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two career appearances vs. Toronto. I like Stroman at home though in what I believe to be a very sharp “spot bet.” Play on Toronto. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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07-24-19 | A's +193 v. Astros | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oakland A’s (8* MONEY-MAKER) I think that Chris Bassitt and the hungry A’s have much more than just a “punchers chance” vs. Justin Verlander and the Astros. Bassitt is 7-4 with a 3.96 ERA, while Verlander is 12-4 with a 2.99 ERA. The A’s won 4-3 in 11 innings last night and I expect the visitors to carry that momentum over here. Bassitt is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA four career appearances vs. the Astros. Verlander is 13-6 with a 2.63 ERA in 21 career appearances vs. the A’s. Note though that Oakland 35-23 (+10.3 units) this year following a victory, while Houston is just 4-5 (-6.3 units) this season after allowing four runs or less in five straight games. Great value on the hungry dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 A’s. |
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07-23-19 | Padres v. Mets +115 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10*) I’m making a play both on the “under” and on the home side in this game. I simply feel that the veteran Jason Vargas is going to match Padres rookie Chris Paddack inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I definitely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Paddack blanked the Mets over eight innings on May 6th. Vargas comes in off a win over the Twins, allowing three runs over six innings. Note though that San Diego is just 7-12 vs. southpaws this season, while New York is 9-5 in its last 14 at home when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Mets. |
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07-23-19 | Cardinals +109 v. Pirates | 4-3 | Win | 109 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8*) I think Daniel Hudson and the visiting side will pull off the slight upset on the road here vs. Chris Archer and the Pirates. The Cards rail lied for 6-5, ten inning victory, capped off by a grand slam by Paul Goldschmidt. These teams are moving in opposite directions, with the Cards having won eight of ten, while the Pirates enter on a 2-8 skid. Note that Hudson is 4-1 in his past six road starts (he’s also 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in five appearances vs. the Bucs.) Archer continues his “hit or miss” campaign and I think he’s ripe for the picking here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals. |
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07-22-19 | Marlins +114 v. White Sox | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8* MONEY-MAKER) The White Sox return home after a 2-8 road trip and I think that the hungry Marlins will add to their misery here in their first start back in friendly confines. The Fish won’t be lacking for motivation here either after getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend. Chicago hands the ball to Ivan Nova, who is 4-9 with a 5.86 ERA and who is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA over his last 10 2/3’s innings of work. The Marlins’ Trevor Richards is 3-11 with a 4.24 ERA and he’s been at his best on the road, coming in sporting a very respectable 3.52 ERA (despite a 1-3 record.) Miami is interestingly 5-2 (+4.6 units) this year already vs. the AL Central, while Chicago is just 1-3 vs. the NL East. Great value on the undervalued underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Marlins. |
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07-22-19 | A's +203 v. Astros | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oakland A’s (10* GAME OF WEEK) Homer Bailey is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA for the A’s after dominating the Mariners in his first start for his new club, holding Seattle to two runs while striking out six over six innings on Wednesday. Bailey is 8-6 with a 4.69 ERA overall this year and he’s also enjoyed plenty of success vs. Houston throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA in eight career starts vs. it. The Astros’ Gerrit Cole is 10-5 with a 3.12 ERA this year and he’s also enjoyed plenty of success vs. Oakland, however I think that Bailey can match him inning for inning tonight. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry dog, which won’t be lacking for motivation sitting 6.5 games back of their host. Play on Oakland. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 A’s. |
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07-21-19 | Rockies +179 v. Yankees | 8-4 | Win | 179 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8* MONEY-MAKER) German Marquez is 8-5 with a 5.12 ERA this year for the Rockies, while James Paxton is 5-4 with a 3.94 ERA for the Yankees. Colorado comes in highly motivated after getting outscored 19-7 so far. Would anyone fault the Yanks for taking the foot off the gas after 23 wins in their last 29 games? The Rockies are on a six-game losing streak and will be leaving everything they have on the field to break the slide. This one has “upset” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Rockies. |
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07-20-19 | Nationals +150 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 150 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10* CASH MACHINE) Mike Soroka is 10-1 with a 2.24 ERA. Clearly the Braves rookie has been exceptional this year, but Anibal Sanchez and the hungry Nationals won’t be going down without a fight today. Sanchez is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts already vs. the Braves and he hasn’t lost to them since 2012. Washington is also 10-6 (+6.5 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while Atlanta is just 14-15 in its last 29 off a one run win off a division rival. As mentioned off the top, I think the hungry visiting side offers great value in this spot. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals. |
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07-20-19 | Cardinals +131 v. Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8*) The Cards come in with considerable momentum, having won six of eight out of the All Star Break and I look for it to carry it over here. St. Louis was in a 7-0 hole on Friday, before then finishing with a 12-11 victory. After that deflating setback, I think the Reds are ripe for the picking despite sending ace Luis Castillo to the hill. St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas is just 6-9 with a 4.15 ERA this season, but he comes in off his best start of 2019, throwing his second complete game of his five-year career vs. the Pirates on Monday (he’s a respectable 2-1 with a 3.99 ERA in his career vs. Cincinnati.) Castillo most recently earned a win in his first start back from the break despite not being at his best, allowing three runs off seven hits over six innings (overall he’s 2-3 with a 3.35 ERA in seven career match ups vs. the Cards.) I like Mikolas to match Castillo inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe the value swings to the under valued underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cards. |
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07-20-19 | A's +135 v. Twins | 5-4 | Win | 135 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oakland A’s (8*) Two hungry teams collide in this one and I think that the visitors have much more than just a punchers chance. Twins’ starter Jose Berrios has gone six straight starts without a victory. Berrios has in fact gone 0-3 over his last six starts and he’ 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA in three career match ups vs. Oakland. The A’s Brett Anderson is 3-3 with a 3.83 ERA nine games against the Twins, including 1-1 with a shape 2.37 ERA in three career starts at Target Field. I like the A’s to take advantage of the slumping Berrios. Great play on the starter in much better overall form. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 A’s. |
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07-19-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +114 | 7-10 | Win | 114 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (8* MONEY-MAKER). Milwaukee took the opener of this series 5-1, but I like the D-Backs to bounce back on Friday night. Arizona turns to Taylor Clarke, who returns from the DL after throwing six scoreless innings in a rehab start at Class A Visalia on Saturday. Clarke’s struggled for the most part this year, but the good news for the D-Backs starter is that Brewers’ veteran Jhoulys Chacin is 0-6 over his past ten starts. After three straight wins, I look for Milwaukee to take a step back here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 D-Backs. |
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07-19-19 | Rangers +199 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* TRADE-MARK) I think that Justin Verlander and the Astros are over-priced in this one. Verlander is putting together another great season, but I think that his counterpart Mike Minor will match him inning for inning. The Rangers won’t be lacking for motivation either after losing four straight. Look for Minor to go deep and for the hungry dog to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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07-18-19 | Mets -111 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 30 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (8*) All good things must come to an end. That’s the moral of this story. The Giants have won five straight behind some big offensive performances, but I believe the team finally has a letdown here vs. the hungry Mets. Madison Bumgarner has never lost to New York in his entire career, but I also think that that streak of excellence finally ends this evening as well. Noah Syndergaard has enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Giants in his career and I expect “Thor” to be at his best here. The Giants have been a great underdog play over the last couple of weeks, but I believe that trend ends tonight. Lay the short price. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mets. |
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07-18-19 | Tigers +194 v. Indians | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8*) The Indians have been on quite the run over the last couple of months, but I think the Tribe finally have a letdown here. Detroit certainly won’t be lacking for motivation either after losing ten in a row in this series. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer is 8-7 with a 3.65 ERA this year, but he owns a poor 5.40 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. Detroit. The visitors counter with their ace Matt Boyd, who is 6-7 with a 3.95 ERA this season and who is a respectable 2-3 with a 3.40 ERA in ten career appearances vs. the Indians. I think the stage is set for the upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tigers. |
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07-17-19 | Padres v. Marlins +133 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (10* TRADE-MARK) The Marlins pulled off the 12-7 win last night and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here vs. the suddenly struggling Padres, who enter having lost four in a row. Chris Paddack is 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA this year, while Trevor Richards is 3-10 with a 4.18 ERA. I think these starters are a “wash,” but I’ll point out that San Diego is 6-9 (-8.5 units) as a favorite of -150 or higher, while Miami is interestingly 7-4 (+4.8 units) this year vs. the NL West. Great value on the home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Marlins. |
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07-17-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +138 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) LA has been the best team in the league by far so far this season, but Philadelphia is unquestionably the “hungrier” team in this one. The Dodgers destroyed the Phillies 16-2 in the opener of this series, but Philadelphia bounced back with a tough 9-8 win last night and I think the home team carries over that momentum. Nick Pivetta is 4-4 with a 5.81 ERA this year for the Phillies and while he’s struggled of late, so too has his counterpart Kenta Maeda, who is 7-6 with a 3.82 ERA overall, but who has allowed 16 home runs this year, after allowing only 13 all of last season. Maeda owns a 4.29 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Phillies, while Pivetta is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA in three career outings vs. the Dodgers. Great value on the hungry home side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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07-17-19 | Pirates +130 v. Cardinals | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (8* MONEY-MAKER) The Pirates are out of the cellar in the NL Central after last night’s 3-1 victory. The win snapped a four-game losing streak, and now Pittsburgh sits just behind the Cards in the division. Chris Archer gets the nod for the hungry visiting side and he’s 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA this year. Archer though comes in with a ton of confidence himself after his best performance of the season, allowing three runs and striking out ten over seven innings in a no-decision to Chicago. The home side goes with Daniel Ponce de Leon, who is 1-0 with a 1.99 ERA. He most recently allowed one run over six innings in a no-decision to the D-Backs. Archer though has a 2.20 ERA in three career starts vs. the Cardinals and I believe the veteran carries over his recent momentum. This one has slight upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates. |
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07-16-19 | Giants +122 v. Rockies | 8-4 | Win | 122 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (8*) The Giants won both games in yesterday’s double header and I think the surging visiting side will carry that momentum over on Tuesday night. Drew Pomeranz is just 2-9 with a 6.42 ERA, while Peter Lambert is only 2-1 with a 6.67 ERA. Pomeranz though is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career games vs. Colorado. Additionally note that the Giants are +8.9 units this year vs. right-handed starters, while Colorado is already 7-14 this year after a loss by two runs or less. Look for the San Fran to keep the good times rolling. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. |
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07-16-19 | Reds +117 v. Cubs | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) The Cubs’ lost in 6-3 in yesterday’s series opener and I think they’re ripe for another letdown here as well. Alec Mills will make his season debut for the Cubs and I think he’ll struggle in this spot. Mills is 0-1 with a 5.48 ERA in ten career games. The hungry visiting side, which hasn’t won back-to-back games since early July, turns to Anthony DeSclafani, who is 5-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Note that in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs DeSclafani is 4-3 with a 3.84 ERA, walking 20 and striking out 58 in 61 1/3’s innings opposed. Cincinnati is also 30-21 (+11.9 units) in all “night” games this season, while Chicago is just 8-10 (-4.8 units) this year after three consecutive games vs. a division rival. I’m banking on the “better” pitcher to deliver the goods. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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07-16-19 | Nationals v. Orioles +182 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Orioles (8*) After taking two of three vs. the Phillies over the weekend, I think the Nationals have a predictable letdown here vs. their lowly interleague opponent. Austin Both is 0-0 with a 5.52 ERA for the Nationals, while Asher Wojciechowski is 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA. Neither starter has an advantage here, so in that case, I definitely feel that the value swings to the hungry underdog. Washington is also just 27-28 (-7.9 units) in all “night” games this year, while Baltimore is 3-1 (+3 units) in its last four after scoring four runs or less in five straight games. This one has “upset” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Orioles. |
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07-15-19 | White Sox v. Royals +120 | 2-5 | Win | 120 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Royals (8* MONEY-MAKER) Lucas Giolito has had plenty of success vs. the Royals in the past and he’s coming off his first All Star Game appearance, but he was destroyed in his last start before the break, giving up six runs and five walks over four innings in a loss to the Cubs on July 6th. Jakob Junis is only 4-8 with a 5.33 ERA this year, but he comes in off his best start of the year, holding the Nationals to two runs over seven innings. This one has upset written all over it in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Royals. |
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07-15-19 | Rays +141 v. Yankees | 5-4 | Win | 141 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tampa Bay Rays (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Blake Snell is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA this season for the Rays, one year removed from winning the AL Cy Young Award. Clearly it’s not been what Snell would have anticipated and he’s already been crushed twice by the Yanks this year. The Rays though enter this four-game series looking to make up ground against the AL East opponent. The Yanks’ James Paxton is 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA this year, but he faces a red hot Tampa team which has gone 5-1 in its last six and scored 33 runs in taking three of four from Baltimore over the weekend. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rays. |
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07-15-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +150 | Top | 16-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Clayton Kershw is 7-2 with a 3.09 ERA for the Dodgers and he was just in the All Star Game. He has plenty of success vs. the Phillies as well. Philadelphia starter Zach Eflin is 7-8 with a 3.78 ERA and he’s struggled throughout his career vs. the Dodgers. LA is the league’s best team, but it comes in “dog tired” after a 12 innings victory at Boston last night. I think the hungry Phillies take advantage. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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07-14-19 | Astros v. Rangers +202 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* CASH MACHINE) Justin Verlander is obviously one of the best pitchers on the planet, but I still think he’s over-priced on the road in this one. Verlander comes in struggling as he’s allowed at least one home run in each of his previous five starts, posting a poor 1-2, 4.91 ERA in the process. The home side goes with Ariel Jurado, who is 5-4 with a 4.23 ERA and who is 1-0 with 0.93 ERA over three career appearances vs. the Astros. I like Texas to take command with a big victory at home. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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07-14-19 | Giants +158 v. Brewers | 8-3 | Win | 158 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Here’s a great spot bet. The Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin is just 3-9 with a 5.40 ERA this season and he enters in terrible form, having gone 0-6 with a 5.77 ERA over his last eight starts. The visitors go with Tyler Beede, who is 2-3 with a 5.64 ERA and who has earned both of his victories on the road (also note that he owns a 3.38 ERA in all “day” games this season.) Additionally note that San Fran is already a perfect 2-0 this season after having won six or seven of its last eight, while Milwaukee is just 7-8 after having lost five or six of its last seven. Great value on the visitors in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. |
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07-14-19 | Blue Jays +185 v. Yankees | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (8* BLACK-LABEL) I had a big winner on the Jays yesterday and I believe they offer great value to do it again on Sunday afternoon. The visitors turn to Marcus Stroman (5-9, 3.18 ERA) who is likely throwing for his final time ever as a Blue Jay. Stroman will likely be shipped before the deadline. Stroman last pitched on June 23rd, going six scoreless in a 6-1 win over the Red Sox. The home side will see Mashario Tanaka (5-5, 3.86) toe the slab and he most recently got rocked for four runs over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Rays on July 5th. I think these starters are evenly matched, which definitely swings the value in favor of the hungry dog in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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07-13-19 | Astros v. Rangers +120 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* TRADE-MARK) The Rangers go for the sweep of the Astros tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley, who is 7-4 with a 3.28 ERA this season (note that Houston is just 5-4 in his last nine starts.) Miley is a poor 3-5 with a 5.56 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Rangers. Texas’ starter Mike Minor is 8-4 with a 2.54 ERA this year and 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA over his last six starts (note that Minor is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two outings vs. Houston this season.) I like Minor to easily out duel Miley and I look for the home side to take full advantage. Great price on this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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07-13-19 | Dodgers +160 v. Red Sox | 11-2 | Win | 160 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Dodgers (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think Rod Stripling and the league leading Dodgers offer great value in this spot. Stripling is 3-3 with a 3.79 ERA and he’ll be facing Chris Sale, who is 3-8 with a 4.04 ERA. Sale most recently was shelled for five runs off nine hits over five innings vs. the Jays before the break. The Dodgers definitely won’t be lacking for motivation after four straight losses, losing three in a row to the Padres before the break and last night’s 8-1 series opening setback. Note that Sale is winless in two appearances with a 10.50 ERA vs. the Dodgers lifetime. I’m banking on a big bounce back from the National League in this one. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Dodgers. |
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07-13-19 | Blue Jays +260 v. Yankees | 2-1 | Win | 260 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (8* MONEY-MAKER) Toronto lost 4-0 in the opener of this series last night, but I think it offers great value (at this huge price!) to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. Toronto faces JA Happ, who is 7-4 with a 5.02 ERA this year. Happ has been “hit or miss” this season and while he’s had plenty of success vs. his former team in the past, note that he’s allowed 20 homers this year already, including 13 at home where he has a poor 6.29 ERA. Clayton Richard is only 1-5 with a 6.23 ERA this year for the Jays, but he enters off a win in which he gave up three runs over six innings vs. the Orioles before the break. The Yanks are over-priced here and I think the bookmakers pay for their mistake. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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07-12-19 | Rays v. Orioles +144 | Top | 16-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) The Rays were a big surprise over the first two months of the season, but Tampa Bay scuffled down the stretch of the first half and I believe that trend carries over here vs. a Baltimore team which turned things around considerably before the Mid-Summer Classic. Yonny Chirinos is 7-4 with a 3.15 ERA for the Rays so far this season, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The Rays are just 17-19 in their last 36 and injuries to the bullpen have been a big reason why. The home side goes with Dylan Bundy, who is 4-10 with a 4.65 ERA and who enters off a gem, holding Toronto to one run off three hits over seven innings in the victory. The Rays are only 18-19 (-5.7 units) this year with a money line in the -100 to -150 range this season and I believe they’re ripe for the picking in their first game back from the break. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Orioles. |
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07-11-19 | Astros v. Rangers +105 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 105 | 32 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Houston leads the AL West, but it hands the ball to Framber Valdez to open this series and he’s just 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA in the big leagues this year. Note that Valdez has been at his worst on the road as well, going 1-3 with a ballooned 5.09 ERA (also terrible in all “night” games, going 2-3 with a 6.38 ERA). Rangers’ starter Lance Lynn is 11-4 with a 3.91 ERA overall this year and he’s 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Houston. I’m banking on Lynn taking advantage of this opportunity. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Rangers. |
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07-07-19 | Cubs v. White Sox +138 | 1-3 | Win | 138 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (8*) Kyle Hendricks is 7-6 with a 3.45 ERA and he’ll face the White Sox’ Ivan Nova, who is 3-7 with a 5.92 ERA. Hendricks is 1-2 with a 3.44 in six starts vs. Chicago, while Nova is 4-2 with a 3.75 ERA in nine career outings vs. the Cubs. I think the Cubs take the foot off the gas here though and note that they’re just 5-6 (-3 units) as a road favorite this year anyways. Conversely note that the White Sox are still 24-19 (+8.7 units) at home this season. Great spot bet on the hungry home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Sox. |
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07-07-19 | Marlins +183 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8*) Miami upset the Braves last night and I like the visitors to do it again here, as I think the home side gets caught “looking ahead” to the All Star break. Trevor Richards gets the call for the Marlins and he’s 3-9 with a 4.02 ERA. The Braves hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, who is 1-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Atlanta had won seven in a row in this series previous to last night’s loss and I think this absolutely sets up as a natural “letdown/look-ahead” spot for the Braves, who will go into the break with the division lead despite what happens this afternoon. Richards comes in on top form, having gone at least five innings in a career-long ten straight games and he’s gone a career-high seven frames twice during that run (note that Richards allowed nine home runs over his first nine starts, but since then he’s allowed just three over his last eight games.) Keuchel comes in off his best start of the year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Another great spot bet on the hungry and undervalued visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Marlins. |
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07-07-19 | Indians v. Reds +116 | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) After five straight victories, I think the Tribe finally take the foot off the gas here in the final game before the All Star Game. Enough is enough as far as the Reds are concerned, as they’ve lost nine of the last 11 at home in this series. Tyler Mahle gets the nod for the visitors and he’s 2-8 with a 4.36 ERA so far this season. Mahle won’t be lacking for motivation either as he looks to snap a five-start winless streak, most recently allowing three runs over six frames in a no-decision to the Brewers. Bauer is 3-0 in his last four starts, but he was fortunate in his 9-5 win over the Royals on Tuesday, as he’d go on to concede a career-high 11 hits in the victory. A great situational spot bet on the hungry home side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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07-06-19 | Phillies v. Mets -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* TRADE-MARK) It’s Jake Arrieta of the Phillies vs. Noah Syndergaard of the Mets. Arrieta is 8-6 with a 4.43 ERA this season, while Syndergaard is 5-4 with a 4.56. Philadelphia posted the 7-2 victory last night (I had the Phillies in that one) and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here as well. New York is struggling, having gone just 13-23 since last May. Philadelphia only has nine wins out of its last 24 games, but note that five of those victories have comes against these very Metropolitans. New York now the punching bag of the NL (along with the Marlins) and I expect Philadelphia to continue that trend. Arrieta comes in with momentum after back-to-back victories, while Syndergaard makes his second trip to the hill after a stint on the IL, most recently allowing three runs over five innings vs. Atlanta. I think New York has already “packed it in.” T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Phillies WARNING: WRONG SIDE CHOSEN. This is a play on the Phillies. Sorry for the confusion, over the course of a year, sometimes I make a mistake entering picks. |
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07-06-19 | Orioles +130 v. Blue Jays | 8-1 | Win | 130 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Orioles upset the struggling Jays 4-1 in last night’s series opener and I look for the underdog visitors to deliver the goods again in what I believe to be a very favorable matchup on the mound for them. Baltimore goes with Andrew Cashner, who is is 8-3 with a 4.03 ERA, while Toronto hands the ball to Clayton Richard, who is 1-4 with a 6.51 ERA to this point. Richard is 1-1 with a ballooned 5.93 ERA in three career games vs. the Orioles. Cashner earned a win vs. the Jays on April 2nd by going six scoreless and he’s 2-2 with a 2.68 ERA in seven career starts vs. Toronto. Baltimore comes in having won four of its last seven and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas on Saturday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 O’s. |
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07-05-19 | Cardinals v. Giants +115 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Giants (8*) The Cards won two of three in Seattle, but I think they’ll falter in the opener of this series. The Giants come in on top form having won four straight and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas tonight. The visitors go with rookie Dakota Hudson, who is 6-4 with a 3.40 ERA, while the home side goes with Drew Pomeranz, who is 2-8 with a 6.25 ERA thus far. Pomeranz comes in off his best performance in a long time, going five shutout innings and striking out seven in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Diamondbacks last weekend. Hudson on the other hand comes in off his worst start of his career, getting rocked for seven runs over one inning vs. the Padres on Saturday. Everything points to a slight upset in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants. |
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07-05-19 | Phillies +170 v. Mets | 7-2 | Win | 170 | 29 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Phillies (8*) I think Vince Velasquez, who is 2-5 with a 4.73 ERA and the hard-hitting visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in the opener of this three game series vs. the Mets. The home side turns to Jacob deGrom, who is 4-7 with a 3.32 ERA. The Phillies come in motivated after a 12-6 loss to the Braves. But at 45-42, Philadelphia is only a half game out of a wild-card spot: "We have work to do," Phillies manager Gabe Kapler said Thursday night. "We get back to work tomorrow, we turn the page quickly. One game in isolation is not going to kill us. We have to raise our level of play." A game vs. the hapless Mets, who are just 7-15 in their last 22, is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. As note that the Phillies are 11-4 (+6.5 units) this season after allowing nine or more runs in their previous contest, while the Mets are just 21-26 (-9.9 units) this year following a loss and only 9-11 (-4.0 units) after scoring two runs or less. For all the reasons listed above, play on Philadelphia. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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07-04-19 | Phillies +153 v. Braves | 6-12 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (8* MONEY-MAKER). Braves’ pitcher Mike Soroka became the youngest pitcher in club history to make the All Star Game, but I think he’ll stumble here in his final start before the mid-summer classic. Soroka is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA, but Zach Eflin is 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA for the Phillies. The Phillies won the first game 2-0, before then falling 9-2 on Wednesday. Soroka has never faced the hard-hitting Phillies. In my opinion this sets up as natural letdown spot for the rookie. Eflin has the experience to take advantage and I look for the veteran to do just that. Great value on the visitors to pull off the upset after last night’s humbling defeat. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Phillies. |
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07-02-19 | Brewers -103 v. Reds | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the visitors offer great value to pull off the slight upset on the road Tuesday night. Milwaukee won 8-6 last night and it’s back on track for sure now after winning seven of its last ten. Chase Anderson is so far 4-2 with a 4.42 ERA for Milwaukee and he enters on top form, having won three straight starts (Anderson is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Cincinnati.) Tanner Roark is 5-6 with a 3.36 ERA for Cincinnati and while he’s enjoyed success vs. Milwaukee in the past, I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Note that Milwaukee is 22-13 (+7 units) this season vs. the division now, while the Reds are only 15-25 this season when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. Expect that hard-hitting Brewers to build off yesterday’s offensive explosion. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Brewers. |
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06-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -102 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (8*) After winning the first two of this three game series, I think the visitors take a step back here. Robbie Ray gets the call for the D-Backs and he’s so far 5-5 with a 3.90 ERA. The home side hands the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who is 4-7 with a 4.21 ERA. While Ray has had plenty of success vs. the Giants in the past, he enters in terrible form currently, going 0-2 in his last three starts while getting rocked for 11 runs off 13 hits spanning 18 frames of work. Bumgarner has dominated Arizona throughout his career as well (2.58 ERA in 24 match ups) and I expect the wily southpaw to continue that success. Everything points to a slight upset in this one on Saturday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. |
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06-30-19 | Rangers +194 v. Rays | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (8*) I think that Rays’ Blake Snell continues to struggle on Sunday afternoon. Snell is 4-7 with a 5.01 ERA this season, while the Rangers counter with the red hot Jesse Chavez, who is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA. In five June starts Snell has posted an atrocious 11.94 ERA, allowing at least six runs in three of five contests. Chavez gave up one run over seven innings in a win over Detroit on Tuesday. Chavez enters on top form, having given up just one earned run over his last 15 innings of work, striking out 14 and walking one in that span. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I believe we’re getting unreal value against the over-priced Snell. Play on Texas. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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06-30-19 | Cubs v. Reds -105 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) Both teams have won so far in this three game series, but I like the home side to deliver the goods in the rubber match on Sunday afternoon. Jon Lester is 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA for the Cubs, while the Reds Anthony DeSclafani is 4-4 with 4.70 ERA. DeSclafani had his three start win streak come to an end last time out, but note that the Reds are a sharp 10-6 in their last 16 vs. southpaws. Conversely note that the Cubs are only 9-15 on the road this year when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. I’m banking on the hungry home side finding a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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06-29-19 | Mariners +255 v. Astros | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) The Astros won the opener of this three-game set 2-1 in ten innings last night, but I like the visitors to bounce back in Game 2. Justin Verlander is 10-3 with a 2.67 ERA for the Astros, while Yusei Kikuchi is 4-5 with a 5.11 ERA for the Mariners. Verlander has had plenty of success vs. Seattle in the past, but I still think he’s over-priced here considering the recent “on again, off again” form of his team. Kikuchi comes in with momentum after winning his last start, conceding three runs and posting three K’s over six innings vs. the Orioles. I like Seattle to bounce back after last night’s near victory. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 M’s. |
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06-29-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox +125 | 17-13 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This two game series is being played in London and I think the Red Sox offer great value here to post the slight upset in Game 1. Masahiro Tanaka is 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA this year for the Yanks, while Rick Porcello is 5-7 with a 4.52 ERA for the Red Sox. New York has a nine game lead over Boston, so clearly the Red Sox will be motivated here. Note that Porcello comes in on top form in that he hasn’t allowed a single home run in his last three starts (in fact Porcello has pitched at least six innings in 11 of his last 12 trips to the hill.) Porcello is 10-9 with a 3.32 ERA in 23 career starts vs. New York. Tanaka is 8-4 in 18 career starts vs. Boston, but with an elevated 4.85 ERA. I like Porcello in this spot. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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06-28-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +175 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 175 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockies (10* CA$H BOMB) The Dodgers rallied late in last night’s game, but I think the home side will bounce back here, despite having to face LA’s ace Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu’s 1.27 ERA leads the league, but Coors Field is the “great equalizer” when it comes to pitching. Certainly the home side will be motivated here. Antonio Senzatela gets the nod for the home side and he’s 6-5 with a 4.91 ERA this year. Senzatela is 1-0 with a 4.73 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Dodgers, while Ryu is a poor 4-6 with a 4.61 ERA vs. the Rockies, including a disastrous 1-3 with a 7.56 ERA in four starts at Coors. The writing is on the wall and a big upset is in the cards on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Rockies. |
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06-28-19 | Cubs v. Reds +102 | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds (8*) Chicago overcame a five-run deficit to knock off the Braves 9-7 last night, but overall the Cubs have been scuffling of late. This is the opener of a nine-game road trip before the all star break for Chicago and I think it’ll stumble in the opener vs. the Reds’ Sonny Gray. Gray is 3-5 with a 4.03 ERA overall this yearend he’s 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two career outings vs. the Cubs. Chicago starter Cole Hamels is 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA and while he’s enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Reds in the past, I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Hamels has been superb, but I think his early sparkling numbers are unsustainable and I expect regression sooner than later (and if we dig a little deeper, we find that that regression has already begun, as the veteran received his second straight no-decision last time out by allowing three runs over seven innings to the Mets.) Chicago is a terrible 9-14 on the road when the money line in the game is set between -125 and +125 this season as well. Great value on the hungry home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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06-28-19 | Braves +105 v. Mets | 6-2 | Win | 105 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Braves (8*) Despite giving up five runs to the Cubs in a 9-7 loss in the latter frames last night, I like the Braves to come out firing in the opener of this one as they’ll look to kick the Mets while they’re down. The home side goes with Jacob deGrom, who is 4-6 with a 3.25 ERA, while the first placed visitors go with Mike Soroka, who is 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA. The Mets lost on Thursday as well and they now return home off a disastrous 3-8 road trip. Atlanta on the other hand is still 4.5 games ahead of Philly for the division lead despite yesterday’s setback. I think the pitchers are a “wash,” which I believe swings the value in in favor of the hungry and more talented underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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06-27-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +162 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* TRADE-MARK) It’s difficult to say anything negative about the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler, who is 8-1 with a 2.96 ERA so far this season, so I won’t bother. The Rockies have lost 11 straight in this series dating back to last season and I think that string of futility finally comes to an end here. Rockies’ rookie starter Peter Lambert, who is 2-0 with a 5.85 ERA, has looked sharp in three of his four starts this season. Note as well that the Rockies are 15-8 (+9.2 units) already this season after three consecutive games vs. a division rival. I expect Colorado to finally get off the schneid in this series. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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06-27-19 | Nationals v. Marlins +185 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8* SPECIAL) Washington’s dominated the first two games of this series and while Stephen Strasburg, who is 8-4 with a 3.79 ERA so far this year, has enjoyed success vs. Miami in the past, I think his team has a letdown here vs. the hungry home side. Yes Sandy Alcantara, who is 4-6 with a 3.51 ERA, has struggled vs. the Nationals throughout his career, but who has been his best at home with a very respectable 3.10 ERA so far. Washington’s still a poor 6-7 (-7.7 units) as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range this season. Great line value on the desperate home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Fish. |
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06-27-19 | Rangers v. Tigers -103 | 3-1 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8* MONEY-MAKER) I like the Tigers to finally break their six-game slide here. The home side goes with Spencer Turnbull, who is 3-7 with a 3.29 ERA overall and while he’s struggled in Detroit, I still think he’ll get the better of his erratic counterpart Ariel Jurado, who is 4-3 with a 4.44 ERA and who has given up 11 runs over his last two outings (nine frames of work.) Texas is just 2-6 (-4 units) this year after allowing four runs or less in three straight games. Look for the hungry home side to turn the tables on Thursday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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06-27-19 | Mets +138 v. Phillies | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (8* BLACK-LABEL) I think the “hungrier” team gets the job done here. New York has now lost four straight after losing the first three of this four-game series. Previous to winning three in a row, note that the Phillies had lost seven straight. The Phillies had to come from behind from a 4-0 hole last night, but I think their “luck” runs out here. Zach Wheeler gets the nod for the Mets and he’s 6-5 with a 4.69 ERA, while Philadelphia goes with Aaron Nola, who is 6-2 with a 4.55 ERA. Nola has been terrible in June, posting a 5.55 ERA over four trips to the hill. Wheeler enters off a gem, holding the Cubs to one run over seven innings while striking out five. As stated above, I think the “hungrier” team is going to find a way to salvage the finale this afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mets. |
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06-26-19 | Padres v. Orioles +130 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (8*) San Diego has taken the first two games of this series, but I think it’ll falter in trying to pull off the sweep. The home side turns to Dylan Bundy, who is 3-9 with a 4.59 ERA, while the visitors go with Matt Strahm, who is 2-6 with an equally as unimpressive 4.85 ERA. Bundy has improved after a slow start, while Strahm has regressed, losing his last three decisions in a row. I think Bundy and the hungry home side are the correct call on Wednesday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Orioles. |
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06-26-19 | White Sox +292 v. Red Sox | 8-7 | Win | 292 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: White Sox (8*) Boston has taken the first two games of this series, but I think the White Sox offer great value here to bounce back and pull off the upset in the finale vs. former teammate Chris Sale. Sale is 3-7 with a 3.59 ERA this year and he most recently was rocked for four runs off seven hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Blue Jays. The visitors counter with Reynaldo Lopez, who is 4-7 with a 6.23 ERA overall this year, who comes in off his best start of the year vs. the dangerous Rangers on Friday, allowing three runs over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. This also sets up as a classic “look ahead” spot for the Red Sox, who travel to London after this game to play a historic two-game series vs. the Yankees. I’m banking on Chicago taking advantage. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 White Sox. |
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06-26-19 | Blue Jays +236 v. Yankees | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (8*) The Yankees head over to London for a historic two-game series vs. the Red Sox after this game and I believe they’re going to get caught “looking past” the hungry Jays, who come in focused after dropping the first two games of this series. The Yanks hand the ball to James Paxton, who is 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA; Paxton has been hit or miss this season and when he faced the Jays in Toronto three weeks ago he allowed four runs over four innings (overall he’s 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA in seven career starts vs. Toronto.) The visitors go with Trent Thornton, who is 2-5 with a 4.25 ERA this year, but who is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA over his past four starts. I think the stage is set for the big upset. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Jays. |
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06-25-19 | Reds +136 v. Angels | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Reds (10* TRADE-MARK) The Reds look to break a two-game slide by handing the ball to Tyler Mahle in the opener of this interleague series. Mahle, who is 2-7 with a 4.17 ERA so far, enters off a great outing vs. the hard-hitting Astros, allowing two runs off four hits over seven innings. The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Heaney, who is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA. Heaney’s gone at least six innings just once this year and he most recently was rocked for five runs over three innings vs. the Jays on Wednesday. The Reds are 7-4 this season when playing with a day off, while the Angels are just 4-5 this season in the same position. Great value on what I feel to be the superior pitcher in this matchup. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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06-25-19 | Mariners +160 v. Brewers | 8-3 | Win | 160 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I think the visitors offer great value to “steal” the opener of this three-game inteleague series. The visitors go with Marco Gonzales, who is 8-6 with a 4.38 ERA, while the home side goes with Zach Davies, who is 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA. Gonzales though is the difference maker for me with this pick, as he enters on top form, going 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA over his past three starts. Davies on the other hand enters off his worst start of the 2019 campaign, getting shelled for five runs over two innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Padres. I love Gonzales to continue his red hot run on the mound. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mariners. |
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06-25-19 | Nationals v. Marlins +185 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8* MONEY-MAKER) I think the home side offers great value to steal this one. And that’s because I think that Trevor Richards (3-7, 3.54 ERA) is going to be able to match Max Scherzer (6-5, 2.62) inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I always feel that the value swings to the hungry underdog. Note as well that Scherzer struggled in Miami on April 20th, giving up a season-high seven runs off 11 hits over five innings. Miami comes in playing some of its best ball of the 2019 campaign thus far, splitting a four-game series at St. Louis, before then sweeping the Phillies in three straight. Richards lost to the Nats on April 21st, giving up three runs over seven innings; note though that Washington is just 1-9 (-11.9 units) this season when playing with a day off, while Miami is a sharp 7-4 (+6.4 units) off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Fish. |
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06-24-19 | Braves +109 v. Cubs | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Braves (8* BLACK-LABEL) ATL has reached double-digit runs six times already this month. Overall Atlanta has won 13 of its last 16. Chicago dropped the first two games of its three game series vs. the Mets, but rallied for a victory in the finale on Sunday. Overall though Chicago has dropped eight of its last 13. The home side hands the ball to Jon Lester, who is 6-5 with a 4.13 ERA, while the visitors go with Julio Teheran, who is 5-5 with a 3.40 ERA. I’ll point out though that ATL is 12-5 (+6.1 units) this year vs. southpaws, while Chicago is interestingly just 3-5 this year when playing on a Monday. I’m banking on the Braves offense to continue its unreal production. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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06-23-19 | Mets -106 v. Cubs | 3-5 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Mets have destroyed the Cubs over the first two games of this series and I look for that trend to continue in the finale. Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom won’t be lacking for motivation here either as he seeks his first ever victory at Wrigley. deGrom is so far 4-6 with a 3.26 ERA this season and he’s 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in seven career starts vs. Chicago. The home side turns to Cole Hamels, who is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA this season, but who is 9-14 with a 4.01 ERA in 33 career outings vs. the Mets. I think Hamels takes a step back and look for deGrom to take advantage. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mets. |
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06-23-19 | Blue Jays +159 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-1 | Win | 159 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Jays came from behind to steal last night’s contest 8-7. I think the visitors (at this price) offer great value to do it again on Sunday. Marcus Stroman gets the nod for the Jays and he’s so far 4-9 with a 3.23 ERA. He’ll be opposed by struggling Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, who is 5-6 with a 4.31 ERA. Stroman gave up three runs over seven innings in a 3-1 loss to the Angels most recently, but he does already have a win over the Red Sox this year, giving up on run over six frames (note that he’s also 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA lifetime vs. Boston.) Porcello comes in off his best start of the year, going seven scoreless vs. the Twins on Monday. Porcello has admittedly looked a lot better since a poor start to the 2019 campaign, but note that he’s still just 10-11 with a ballooned 5.39 ERA in 26 career games vs. the Jays. I like the hungry visiting side to steal this game and series. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Blue Jays. |
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06-22-19 | Braves +121 v. Nationals | Top | 13-9 | Win | 121 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves (10* BEST OF BEST) I had a play on Atlanta last night and it unfortunately came up short after the Nationals rallied for a late 4-3 victory. Washington’s won five straight, but I think it’ll come up short here vs. the hungry and revenge minded Braves. Anibal Sanchez is 3-6 with a 3.84 ERA overall for Washington and while he’s been great since returning from a short stint on the IL, he’s struggled vs. the Braves throughout his career, going just 6-11 with a 4.91 ERA in 19 starts against them. Atlanta hands the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (2-5, 5.53) and he was 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA in five starts vs. Washington last season. Note as well that Foltynewicz has quietly been returning to form after a terrible start, entering this one off his best performance of the year by giving up one run over six frames vs. the Phillies. I think both Washington and Sanchez take a step back here and I look for the focused and hungry Foltynewicz and visiting side to step up and take advantage. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Braves. |
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06-21-19 | Blue Jays +300 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* TRADE-MARK). I like the Jays to steal Game 1 of this series vs. the over-priced the Red Sox. Toronto comes in off a hard-fought 7-5, 10-inning victory over the Angels and I expect it to carry that momentum over here. The visitors go with Trent Thornton, who is 2-5 with a 4.36 ERA, while the home side goes with Chris Sale, who is 3-7 with a 3.49 ERA. The Red Sox had Thursday off and I don’t think it’s going to help after they went 18-15 over a 34-day stretch, including a satisfying 9-4 win over the Twins on Wednesday. Toronto got good news yesterday in the closer Ken Giles is back, and he pitched a perfect ninth on Thursday with two K’s. The stage is set for the big upset on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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06-21-19 | Marlins +191 v. Phillies | 2-1 | Win | 191 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8* MONEY-MAKER). I think Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins offer great value to pull off the upset at this generous price. The Phillies are over-priced here for sure considering ace Aaron Nola’s form (he’s 6-1 with a 4.89 ERA overall, but he’s posted a deplorable 7.71 ERA over his last three trips to the hill.) Nola is an unremarkable 3-4 with a 3.98 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Marlins. Philadelphia comes in having lost four straight as well, most recently falling 7-4 to the Nationals last night. In two career starts vs. the Phillies Alcantara is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. I think Miami pulls off the upset here and kicks this struggling home side while it’s down. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Marlins. |
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06-21-19 | Braves +125 v. Nationals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (8* BLACK-LABEL). I’m banking on Dallas Keuchel making an immediate impact for his new team and in his season debut. The home side goes with Stephen Strasburg, who is 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA this season, but who enters off a terrible performance. The Nationals come in off a highly satisfying three-game sweep of the rival Phillies and look primed for a letdown here in my opinion. The Braves had a much needed day off yesterday and come in fresh. As noted above, Strasburg was destroyed in his last start, allowing four home runs vs. the Diamondbacks on Saturday. The stage is set for a minor upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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06-21-19 | Astros +135 v. Yankees | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Houston Astros (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Yankees are almost at full strength now with the return of Aaron Judge to the line-up, but I still think the visitors will pull off the slight upset on Friday night after falling in the opener on Thursday. After six straight victories, I think New York takes a step back tonight. The Astros on the other hand come in on the exact opposite end of the spectrum, now desperate for a victory after a season-high five game losing streak. The Yankees James Paxton is 4-3 with a 3.93 ERA and he comes in off a decent outing vs. the lowly White Sox, but when he faced the Astros on April 10th in Houston, he was shelled for five runs over four innings. The visitors go with Brad Peacock, who is 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA. Houston’s not going down without a fight today; I fully expect the slight upset here. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Astros. |
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06-20-19 | Giants +183 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Fran Giants (10* MONEY-MAKER). The over night pitching change from Buehler to Urias favors Madison Bumgarner and the hungry visiting side in my opinion. Bumgarner is 3-6 with a 3.87 ERA, while Urias is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Bumgarner is making his final start at Dodger Stadium as a member of the Giants, who makes one last tune-up performance before being moved by the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July (Bumgarner is 15-13 lifetime vs. the Dodgers with a 2.52 ERA.) After becoming the first team to 50 wins this year after yesterday’s victory, I think the stage is set for a classic letdown here from the home side. Great value on the revenge minded visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Giants. |
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06-19-19 | Mets +141 v. Braves | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* BLOOD BATH) The Mets smashed the Braves last night and I expect the “hungrier” team to lay the hammer down again tonight. New York goes with Steven Matz, who is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA, while the home side goes with Max Fried, who is 7-3 with a 4.11 ERA. It’s a good spot bet I think as well, as this the final of a ten game home stand for ATL, before it hits the road for ten straight. A classic “letdown/look-ahead” spot. Note as well that Fried has been terrible over his last three starts, posting a deplorable 7.98 ERA. Matz is 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Braves and while he’s been hit or miss this year overall, I still think he and the hungry visitors offer fantastic value in this position. Play on New York. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Mets. |
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06-19-19 | Brewers v. Padres +102 | 7-8 | Win | 102 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres (8*) San Diego is back to .500 after taking the first two games of this series and I believe the home side will indeed deliver the knock out blow here and earn the hard-earned sweep. Milwaukee is now just 2-5 during this eight-game road trip and with a night off before returning home after this afternoon contest, I do indeed believe that the visitors get caught “looking ahead” to the time off and friendlier confines. Matt Strahm is 2-6 with a 4.66 ERA for the Padres ("I think we'll have a bounce-back outing from Matt (on) Wednesday," Padres manager Andy Green told the media. "We're confident his stuff is good enough to play in the rotation. His last couple have not been the sharpest.”), while Zach Davies is 7-1 with a 2.60 ERA for the Brewers. Davies though did suffer a loss in his most recent outing, allowing three runs off six hits in a 5-3 setback to the Giants last Friday. A great situational play on the hungrier home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Padres. |
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06-19-19 | Astros v. Reds +160 | 2-3 | Win | 160 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) Houston has dropped the first two games of this three-game interleague series and I believe the home side offers great value to complete the sweep. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, who is 6-5 with a 3.67 ERA and who has been sharp of late, but who is just 1-8 with a 4.97 ERA in 12 starts vs. Cincinnati. The Reds hit three home runs off Justin Verlander yesterday and I think they’ll carry that momentum/confidence over here. Tyler Mahle is 2-7 with a 4.33 ERA for Cincinnati; note though that while he’s 0-6 with a 4.83 ERA on the road, he’s 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA at home. Look for the Reds to keep the foot on the gas Wednesday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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06-19-19 | Rays v. Yankees +119 | 1-12 | Win | 119 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (8*) Blake Snell is 4-5 with a 3.70 ERA for the Rays this year, who enter having the first two games of this series. The Yankees go with veteran CC Sabathia, who is 3-4 with a 4.42 ERA to this point. Snell has fared very averagely vs. New York throughout his career by going 3-5 with a 3.97 ERA in 13 career starts vs. it. Also note that he’s just 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA in nine starts in the Bronx. Sabathia on the other hand is 17-16 with a 3.63 ERA in 50 career starts vs. Tampa (faced them twice last month and allowed three runs over 11 innings of work.) The Yanks saw Edwin Encarnacion hit a home run in yesterday’s win and while slugger Giancarlo Stanton went 0 for 4 in his return, all signs point to another victory for the home side on Wednesday afternoon in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Yanks. |
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06-18-19 | Indians v. Rangers +113 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rangers (10* TRADE-MARK). I think the hard-hitting home-side offers great value in the slight upset role at home. Texas has been a “different” team at home this year and I look for it to move to seven games over .500 for the first time this season after tonight (Texas is 25-12 at home after last night’s 7-2 win.) The home side hands the ball to Adrian Sampson, who is 5-3 with a 4.21 ERA and who had his five start win streak snapped last time out by allowing six runs to the Red Sox. Sampson though is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA at home this year. The visitors go with rookie right-hander Zach Plesac, who is 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA, who most recently allowed three homers and four runs total over five innings in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Rangers. |
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06-17-19 | Orioles +200 v. A's | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (8* MONEY-MAKER). Both pitchers have been hot. Andrew Cashner is 6-2 with a 4.73 ERA this year overall, while Mike Fiers of the A’s is 6-3 with a 4.63 ERA. Cashner comes in on top form, having won two in a row, most recently allowing one run over six innings in a win over the Astros. Fiers is 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA over his past seven. I think that the A’s are over-priced here though as I expect Cashner to match Fiers inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry dog. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 O’s. |
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06-17-19 | Mets +141 v. Braves | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* GAME OF WEEK) Yes the Braves are hot and yes rookie Mike Soroka, who is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA, have both been better than expected this season. But after winning nine of its last ten, including a 15-1 win over Philadelphia yesterday, I think ATL takes a step back here vs. the Mets, who are just 5-5 in their last ten, falling 4-3 to the Cards on Sunday. Note as well that Soroka is starting to show signs of regression, entering this one off his worst start of his career, allowing five runs off five hits over five innings to the Pirates. Wheeler comes in off his worst start of his career as well, giving up nine runs over five innings to the Yanks. Note though that it was the first time since early April that he’s failed to complete six innings (additionally note that Wheeler is 6-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Braves.) The stage is set for the upset as I look for the hungry Mets to get the job done. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mets. |
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06-16-19 | Mariners +125 v. A's | 6-3 | Win | 125 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (8*) Despite struggling at times this year, I think that Mariners’ veteran Mike Leake offers great value to get the better of his rookie counterpart Tanner Anderson. Anderson, who is 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA, made his debut last week vs. the suddenly slumping Rays and gave up two runs over five innings. It was only supposed to be spot start and I think he’s going to predictably struggle here. Seattle is in full re-build mode after shipping out Edwin Encarnacion, but I still think it’ll rebound here after yesterday’s 11-2 loss. Leake owns a 4.15 lifetime ERA in 10 starts vs. the A’s. I expect Seattle to respond in this favorable spot. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Mariners. |
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06-16-19 | Rangers +152 v. Reds | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (8*) We had a play on Texas yesterday and I think it’s going to sweep this series this afternoon with another great effort, both on the mound and at the plate. The Rangers’ trot out Ariel Jurado, who is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA overall and 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA over his last four starts after allowing three runs over six innings in a 9-5 win over Boston. The home side goes with Sonny Gray, who is 2-5 with a 3.65 ERA and who has done well vs. the Rangers in the past, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. And the numbers support that as note that Texas is now 21-15 (+9.4 units) this year following a win and 13-10 (+5.7 units) in all “day” games, while Cincinnati is still a poor 14-16 (-5.8 units) at home and only 94-130 (-15.4 units) the L2 years vs. teams with winning records. I like the Rangers to keep the foot on the gas in the closer. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Rangers. |
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06-16-19 | Indians v. Tigers +140 | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8*) Yes, Trevor Bauer has been on a role of late for the Tribe, but so to has Spencer Turnbull for the Tigers. The home side won’t be lacking for motivation today and I think it offers great value to pull off the slight upset this afternoon. Bauer is 4-6 with a 3.71 ERA overall, but he’s struggled against the Tigers throughout his career, posting a poor 5.67 ERA in 17 lifetime appearances. Turnbull is 3-5 with a 2.78 ERA and he enters off a gem vs. KC, going six scoreless, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for another strong effort. Cleveland is still just 23-25 (-10.3 units) this season vs. right-handed starters. The door is open for Turnbull here. Play on Detroit. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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06-15-19 | Cubs +164 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 164 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (10* TRADE-MARK). Yu Darvish is 2-3 with a 4.98 ERA and he’s played just 22 games total for the Cubs. He’ll be trying to take down his former team today and start his climb back to respectability once again. Clearly Walker Buehler, who is 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA, comes in with the better numbers, but I think that after losing 7-3 in the opener and 5-3 yesterday, that the home side has a letdown here. It’s interesting to note as well that Buehler has faced the Cubs twice and gone 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA vs. them. I don’t expect Darvish to go the distance, but I think he does enough. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Cubs. |
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06-15-19 | Rangers +110 v. Reds | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (8* MONEY-MAKER). The Rangers got a timely grand slam from Rougned Odor to take this interleague series opener 7-1 last night and I think the visitors secure the series victory with another convincing effort on Saturday. Tanner Roark is 4-5 with a 3.74 ERA overall for the home side, but just 1-4 over his past five trips to the hill, most recently getting rocked for four runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Phillies. The visitors counter with Mike Minor, who is 5-4 with a 2.52 ERA. Despite allowing just two runs over eight innings vs. the Red Sox in his last start on on day, Minor remains winless after his last four trips to the mound (0-1 during that stretch despite a 2.19 ERA.) Note that Minor is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in four starts vs. the Reds. Great line value on the surging visiting side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. |
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06-15-19 | Angels +192 v. Rays | 5-3 | Win | 192 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Angels (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT). I think the hard-hitting visiting side has much more than just a punchers chance here. Charlie Morton gets the call for the home side and he’s 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA. He hasn’t lost in 21 starts since a loss vs. the Mariners last August. But all good things must come to an end. After yesterday’s 9-4 victory, I think the home side comes in flat here. The visitors counter with Jose Suarez, who is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA over his first two major league starts. The Angels though have done well in this spot for bettors this season, going 9-5 (+4.8 units) in their last 14 after a loss by four runs or more. Today’s the day Morton takes a big step back. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Angels. |
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06-14-19 | Brewers v. Giants +133 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 133 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Fran Giants (10* MONEY-MAKER). Zach Davies is 7-0 with a 2.41 ERA, while Drew Pomeranz is 1-6 with a 7.16 ERA. Milwaukee leads the NL in home runs. The Giants have struggled with offensive consistency all year. Clearly at first glance this one favors Milwaukee, but Pomeranz comes in off a “gem” (went five scoreless vs. the Dodgers in a head to head matchup against Clayton Kershaw), and I think he offers great value to carry that momentum over here. Davies actually enters off one of his shortest outings of the season, earning a no-decision after conceding seven hits and three runs over five innings vs. the Pirates on Saturday. I think the Brewers come in complacent and I like the hungry home side to steal Game 1. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants. |
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06-13-19 | Rangers +200 v. Red Sox | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (8* MONEY-MAKER) Texas took the first two games of this series convincingly, but the Red Sox bounced back with a 4-3 win yesterday afternoon. I had a play on the “under” in that one. The visitors hand the ball to Adrian Samson, who his 5-3 with a 3.72 ERA. He’ll be opposed by Boston’s best pitcher this season, lefty David Price, who is 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA this year. Price has been sharp of late and Sampson has been better at home than on the road this year, but he’s still a respectable 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA in all “night” games. The Rangers now lead the league in several offensive categories and I think they have much more than just a “punchers” chance on Thursday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Rangers. |
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06-12-19 | Brewers +134 v. Astros | Top | 6-3 | Win | 134 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* TRADE-MARK). Milwaukee looks to bounce back after yesterday’s 10-8 defeat. Houston goes with Justin Verlander, who is 9-2 with a 2.31 ERA, while the visitors go with Brandon Woodruff, who is 8-1 with a 3.87 ERA. I think these starters are a “wash,” but I’ll point out that Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine after allowing ten or more runs in its previous contest, while Houston is just 3-8 in its last 11 home games after scoring ten or more runs. Great value on the hard-hitting visitors. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. |
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06-10-19 | Dodgers v. Angels +138 | 3-5 | Win | 138 | 31 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Angels (8* BLACK-LABEL) It’s hard to say anything negative about the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu is 9-1 with a 1.35 ERA and he’s arguably been the best pitcher on the planet since half way through 2018. I just think his team has a letdown here in this interleague venue. The home side counters with Griffin Canning, who is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA and who struck out a career-high eight over six innings in a loss to the A’s on Tuesday. It’s interesting to note though that the Dodgers are just 1-3 (-3 units) off two straight road wins vs. a division rival, while the Angels are 8-4 (+5.2 units) in their last 12 after a loss by four runs or more. I’m expecting a minor upset here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Angels. |
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06-10-19 | Rangers +207 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 207 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* MONEY-MAKER) Boston is seven games back of AL East leading New York. The home side goes with Chris Sale, who is 2-7 with a 3.84 ERA, while the visitors go girth Mike Minor, who is 5-4 with a 2.55 ERA. Sale comes in off a gem vs. the light-hitting Royals, but I think he’ll have his hands full here with Minor and the hard-hitting Rangers. Minor has a tiny 2.08 ERA over his past eight starts and he struck out seven over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Note that Boston went 5 for 36 with runners in scoring position at Tampa over the weekend and I think it’s going to struggle again vs. Minor. Great value on the under-rated underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. |
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06-09-19 | Pirates +155 v. Brewers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pirates (8*) Pittsburgh won’t be lacking for motivation here as it’s just 5-1 so far in this season series. Steven Brault gets the nod for the visitors and he’s 2-1 with a 5.45 ERA. Brault owns a respectable 4.28 ERA vs. the Brewers over 33.2 career innings. Chase Anderson gets the call for the home side and he’s 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA. Anderson owns a 3.61 ERA in 15 starts vs. Pittsburgh. The numbers support us today though, ash note that the Pirates are 18-8 in their last 26 road games vs. right-handed starters, while the Brewers are 1-4 in their last five vs. southpaws. Anderson just gave up four runs (including three homers) in a 16-0 loss to Miami in his last start. Everything points to a solid upset here. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Pirates. |
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06-09-19 | Reds +126 v. Phillies | 4-3 | Win | 126 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds (8*) I think Sonny Gray, who is 2-5 with a 3.54 ERA for the Reds, can match pace with Phillies ace Aaron Nola, who is 6-1 with a 4.63 ERA, can match pace inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry underdog, which will be desperate to avoid the 3-0 sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Besides note that Nola comes in off a terrible start in which he was rocked for six runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Padres (note that it was in fact the third time this year in which Nola has allowed five or more runs.) Gray has posted a 2.45 ERA over his past four starts, going 3-1 in the process. It’s now or never for the desperate Reds. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Reds. |
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06-09-19 | Rays v. Red Sox +111 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Red Sox (8*) Blake Snell’s not been the same pitcher as he was last year, coming into this one with a sub-par 3-5, 3.65 ERA to this point. So far Snell has received just 3.41 RPG of support, which ranks seventh lowest in the league. Snell was tagged for six runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the toothless Tigers in his last outing as well. Eduardo Rodriguez gets the nod for Boston and he’s 6-3 with a 4.88 ERA. Rodriguez looks for a third straight win and fifth victory in his last six trips to the hill for Boston. I think Snell’s “hangover” continues in this difficult venue and I expect Rodriguez to continue his recent solid form. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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06-08-19 | Nationals v. Padres +135 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres (10* TRADE-MARK). The Padres have taken the first two games of this four-game set and I believe they offer great value to keep the ball rolling here. Max Scherzer is 3-5 with a 3.06 ERA and he’s done extremely well vs. the Padres though out his career. Eric Lauer is 5-4 with a 4.18 ERA and over his only two starts vs. the Nationals he’s posted a 2.43 ERA. Lauer though enters on fire, having allowed just five runs and thee walks with 17 strikeouts over his last 24 innings spanning his last four trips to the hill. Note as well that Washington’s a pathetic 3-7 (-4.9 units) on the road with a money line of -100 to -150, while SD is 9-6 (+3.9 units) after two or more consecutive wins. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Padres. |
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06-07-19 | Mariners +152 v. Angels | 6-2 | Win | 152 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (8*) Seattle beat the Astros 14-1 on Wednesday, but fell 8-7 in extras in the finale. LA is off a 7-4 loss at home to the A’s. After taking three of four in Seattle between May 30th to June 2nd, I expect Seattle to come out swinging in the opener of this three-game set. The visitors go with Marco Gonzalez, who is 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA. Gonzales has struggled of late, but note that he’s 4-1 with a 4.26 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Angels (he’s also 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA in five career outings at Angel Stadium.) LA counters with Andrew Heaney, who is 0-0 with a 4.09 ERA. Last Saturday he gave up three runs over six innings in Seattle. Overall he’s 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA in eight career outings vs. the Mariners. Note as well that the M’s are 13-9 (+3.7 units) this year vs. clubs with losing records, while LA is already a poor 14-18 (-4.6 units) following a loss. I think great value on the M’s. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Mariners. |
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06-07-19 | Diamondbacks +124 v. Blue Jays | 8-2 | Win | 124 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks. (8*) Toronto took two of three from New York this week, but I think it’ll predictably have a letdown here in this tough interleague series. Merrill Kelly is 5-6 with a 4.41 ERA for the Diamondbacks, while Toronto goes with Marcus Stroman, who is 3-7 with a 2.84 ERA. Arizona got a much needed 3-2 walk off win over the Dodgers on Wednesday afternoon. Note that Kelly has a 4.14 ERA over three interleague career starts. Both starters have struggled of late, so I’ll call that department a “wash.” Note though that Arizona is already 7-0 (+7.5 units) this year when playing with a day off, while Toronto is just 12-19 (-7.3 units) at home. Good value on the under the radar visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Diamondbacks. |
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06-06-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +177 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST). Toronto’s endured a terrible start to the 2019 campaign. The Yankees are enjoying one of the best runs in recent memory to open a season, doing it all with most of their big sluggers sidelined with injury. The tables are turning now that June has hit though, as Toronto puts the foot on the gas here as it looks to sweep this three game series from the overachieving and overpriced Yanks. Edwin Jackson is 0-3 with a 13.22 ERA this season, but he should settle down here in my opinion. JA Happ is 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA for New York, but I think his former team rolls to another hot performance at the plate tonight. I like Toronto to carry over its recent momentum. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Jays. |
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06-05-19 | Braves v. Pirates +102 | 4-7 | Win | 102 | 29 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pirates (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I like Pittsburgh to bounce back after yesterday’s 12-5 defeat. The Pirates come in focused after losing 11 of their last 15 to fall three games below .500. Note though that Pittsburgh was playing without slugger Josh Bell, who is back in the line-up today after having two entire days off. I think that definitely matters in this case. Atlanta hands the ball to Kevin Gausman, who is 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA, while Pittsburgh goes with Joe Musgrove, who is 3-6 with a 4.57 ERA. Gausman comes in off a terrible start, allowing eight runs over one inning in a 14-4 loss to the Nationals. Musgrove hasn’t been much better of late, losing his last two starts. These evenly matched struggling pitchers are a wash. But I like the Pirates to finally get off the schneid here in what I think is a fantastic situational play. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Pirates. |
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06-04-19 | Phillies +145 v. Padres | 9-6 | Win | 145 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (8* BLACK-LABEL) The Phillies come in desperate after five straight losses. The visitors look to turn things around by handing the ball to Jerad Eickhoff, who is 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA. The home side goes with rookie Chris Paddack, who is 4-3 with a 2.40 ERA. Paddack’s early gains are starting to come back down to Earth though as he enters off his worst start of his career, getting rocked for four runs (including three solo dingers) over five innings in a loss to the Yanks. Note that Paddack has now allowed five home runs over his last three starts. Eickhoff has also struggled of late, going 0-2 with a ballooned 8.35 ERA over his last four outings. Eickhoff though is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in four career starts vs. the Friars. I like Philadelphia to finally get off the schneid and I look for Eickhoff to get the better of Paddack. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. |
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06-04-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +188 | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Dodgers’ starter Hyun-Jin Ryu went 5-0 in May, posting a ridiculous 0.59 ERA. Ryu has been the best pitcher in baseball dating back to last year, but I think his early minuscule numbers are unsustainable over the long-term and believe that regression is going to happen sooner, rather than later. Note as well that Ryu owns a sub-par 4.99 ERA in seven starts at Chase Field. Arizona won’t be lacking for motivation. Neither will its rookie right-hander Taylor Clarke, who is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA and who comes in off a rough outing vs. the Rockies. Ryu’s been amazing, but all good things come to an end. The visitors are over-priced in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 D-Backs. |
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06-04-19 | Reds v. Cardinals +115 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cardinals (10* MONEY-MAKER) St. Louis has won four in a row and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas and pull off the slight upset in the opener of this three-game set. Cincinnati enters have lost two straight. The visitors hand the ball to ace Luis Castillo, who is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and who hasn’t lost since April 3rd. Castillo though has been extremely shaky of late and I think his early season gains are unsustainable, as note the he enters off back-to-back poor outings, most recently allowing three runs over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday (he’s 1-3 with a 3.67 ERA in six career starts vs. St. Louis.) The home side goes with Genesis Cabrera, who is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA, giving up five runs off five hits over four innings in his MLB debut vs. the Phillies on Wednesday (also struck out five.) I think Cabrera can match Castillo’s current form and in a situation like that, I think the value swings to the undervalued underdog. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Cards. |
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06-03-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (10* GAME OF WEEK) Walker Buehler is 5-1 with a 4.03 ERA and he comes in off a decent start, but I think he’ll take a step back here in the opener of this three game set and in this difficult road venue. The home side goes with Robbie Ray, who is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA this season, but who has enjoyed tremendous success vs. the Dodgers throughout his career, going 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 16 outings vs. LA, striking out a whopping 130 over 95 2/3’s innings of work. Buehler on the other hand has a 4.90 ERA in three career starts vs. Arizona, spanning 15 1/3’s frames of work (gave up five runs over three innings on March 31st.) After winning five straight, I think the Dodgers comes out flat in this opener. Great value on Ray and the hungry home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rays. |
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06-02-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees +112 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the Yanks offer great value to sweep the Red Sox here as the underdog. Note that Red Sox’ starter David Price was 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA in four starts vs. New York in 2018. Gary Sanchez hit a two-run homer in yesterday’s 5-3 win and he’s 7 for 14 with six homers and 12 RBI’s lifetime vs. Price. The Red Sox are just 2-6 in their last eight and they were only 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position Saturday. Yanks’ starter CC Sabathia is 18-13 with a 4.14 ERA in 42 career outings vs. the Red Sox, including going 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA over his last eight starts vs. Boston. I like New York to keep the good times rolling with another solid victory to cap off Sunday night baseball. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks |
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06-01-19 | Blue Jays +135 v. Rockies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays (10* TRADE-MARK). I like the Jays to bounce back after yesterday’s 13-6 defeat. Colorado has won seven of eight during its current home stand, with four of those victories coming on its last at-bat. The home side goes with Jon Gray, who posted a sub-par 5.65 ERA in May. Toronto ace Marcus Stroman is just 3-6, but he owns a sharp 2.74 ERA over 12 starts. Stroman enters on top form having having given up just one earned run in each of three straight strong outings. Note as well that Toronto is already a perfect 4-0 (+5.5 units) this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent which scored ten or more runs in. Great value on the hotter pitcher. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Jays. |
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05-31-19 | Phillies +150 v. Dodgers | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (8*) It’s a big early season series between the top two teams in the National League. I think the visitors offer great value to steal Game 1. The home side goes with Kenta Maeda, who is 6-2 with a 3.67 ERA, while the visitors go with Jake Arrieta, who is 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA. Philadelphia has a gruelling schedule ahead of it, a 23-game period vs. the Dodgers, the Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers, as well as team’s a game within the .500 mark in Colorado, St. Louis and San Diego. "It's definitely a test for us, but I don't think we have to play with any pressure," Philadelphia second baseman Cesar Hernandez assessed last night. "You go there and you see that they're in first place, like us. Down the road, if we stay in first place and they stay in first place, you know that eventually we're going to play each other in a bigger scenario." I think the pitchers are a “wash,” and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the under-valued underdog. Look for Arrieta to get the better of Maeda on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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