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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-01-20 | Presbyterian v. Hampton OVER 153 | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm not going to step in front of the Hampton over train now as they had the week off to prepare for Presbyterian. Hampton's last seven scores are 92-85, 83-73, 83-80, 116-95, 88-86, 83-74 and 83-79. Jermaine Marrow's return has been big for the offense as he has possession of the ball in 35.4% of their possessions and has taken 37.4% of their shots. This team plays very little defense and it doesn't matter if you are slow or not, you will go. Last time out, they managed to push Radford a bit in a 69 possession game and the Highlanders are one of the slowest teams in terms of pace in the country. Presbyterian is 8-14 and relatively underwhelming offensively. They are rather hideous on defense though so I think Hampton could do a lot of the heavy lifting. The Blue Hose are coming off a 77-74 home loss to USC Upstate. This is one of those instabets right now until Vegas adjusts. |
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02-01-20 | Hofstra v. William & Mary OVER 145 | 83-60 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
William and Mary is 16-7, 8-2 in the CAA and is looking for a season sweep of Hofstra. The Tribe crushed them at their place 88-61 back on January 2nd in a game that saw Nathan Knight pick up another double double. His size along with Andy Van Vliet was too much for the home team. Since then they've gone 6-2 with an offense that is really efficient. Last game they beat Northeastern 59-58 after Knight went the length of the court to get the win. Hofstra is also 16-7 and they've gone 5-2 since the loss to WM. They have an efficient offense and are the 12th best FT shooting squad. This team has seen some high scoring games on the road where they don't seemingly mind playing with some pace. I'll take the over here. |
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02-01-20 | Ohio +8 v. Ball State | 54-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Ohio has lost five of six and six of their last eight, but there's been a lot of close losses as they head to Ball State. The Bobcats have lost six of those games by single digits with the last one coming 61-59 at NIU. This team shoots it pretty well from the field and has an efficient offense. They have road wins at St. Bonaventure, Iona and Eastern Michigan already this season. Ball State has lost three of their last five games and it's because of an offense that has struggled as of late. They've scored less than 70 four of their last five and six of their last eight. The Cardinals have the better defense, but are vulnerable from long range. |
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01-30-20 | UABÂ v. Texas-San Antonio -3.5 | 76-68 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
The Roadrunners are one of the bigger disappointments in college basketball, but because of that we are getting a good value on them. This team is 10-11, 4-4 in the C-USA and has won four of their last six. At home, they have just one loss and it was an odd one to end November when they fell to Prairie View 79-72. They've smoked teams there with every victory being by double digits. Keaton Wallace and Jhivvan Jackson are a ridiculous backcourt that is dying for some help. These two are great FT shooters and will have the ball a ton when it matters. The problems come on the defensive side of the ball where they are absolutely hideous. Now at home they have held all but two of their opponents to 70 points or less which is huge because they are capable of putting up 80 easily. UAB is 12-9, 3-5 in Conference USA and they struggle to shoot 3s and turn the ball over way too much. This team has a road win at Troy and one at FAU so far this season, but they've also lost at Charlotte, ODU and FIU in conference play. There's no denying the Blazers defense but the Golden Panthers did put up 93 at home on them. I think we're getting an inconsistent team at a cheap price at home in a matchup they should win on Thursday. |
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01-30-20 | North Dakota v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 144.5 | 68-72 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Fort Wayne tries to snap a four game losing streak at home as they host North Dakota. These two teams played back on January 5th with the home team winning 83-69. The Dons have one of the worst defenses in the country allowing opponents to shoot almost 54% from two and 37.3% from three. At home they've given up 92, 70 and 59 in three conference games. North Dakota's opponents take just 15.7 seconds to get their possessions done which is the 5th fastest in the country. They don't force turnovers and also allow teams to shoot well from long range. If it's a close game, the Fighting Hawks are 6th in the country in FT%. On the road they've allowed 83, 87, 88 and 71 in conference. Now this offense has scored 70 or more in three straight and six of their last eight. I think this one is an over. |
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01-30-20 | Northeastern v. William & Mary OVER 142 | 58-59 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
I see that once again the total has moved down here and this time I'm not scared of it. If you look at the last matchup, you saw the Tribe won 66-64 in Boston, but that was in Mathews Arena which is a giant hockey stadium with odd sight-lines. The other thing about that contest was that there were only just seven free throws attempted so we know that number will be higher in Virginia. William and Mary out-rebounded the Huskies 34-25 in that one and continue to dominate with their twin towers. Both of these teams are ridiculously efficient on offense. Northeastern is 4th best in FT shooting and three point shooting and 33rd best from two point land. On defense they are 323rd against two point shots which will be an issue against the Tribe. WM is 17th best from 2 pt land and 39th from three point land. Someone has reached 70 points in all but two games in Williamsburg. Give me the over here. |
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01-29-20 | San Jose State v. Boise State OVER 153 | 71-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
San Jose State is 7-14, 3-6 in the Mountain West as they travel to Boise State. The Spartans average over 72 possessions per game which is 26th fastest in the country. Opponents have the 12th shortest offensive possessions against them as they are 285th in effective FG% defense. San Jose State has allowed 86, 98, 79 and 89 in their last four road games. Yes, their offense is pretty awful, but at least the pace is conducive to plenty of shots. They are coming of a 90-81 win at home against Air Force so there are some good feelings here. Boise State has a top 100 tempo as well and an offense that is shooting nearly 53% from two point land. The Broncos at home have scored 88, 73, 65, 103 and 100 in their last five games there. They also have a little bit of an issue on defense allowing teams to shoot nearly 54% from two point land. They gave up 83 to Utah State, San Diego State and Nevada already in conference play and 85 to Air Force as well. I see plenty of points in this game. |
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01-29-20 | Monmouth +1.5 v. St. Peter's | 63-66 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Monmouth has won four straight and 10 of their last 12 as they travel to St. Peter's. The Hawks have won three road games over this stretch at Princeton, Manhattan and Iona. Their offense is pretty hot right now scoring 70 or more in eight of their last nine games. They do it with an attack that is 46th best at shooting the three. St. Peter's has lost four of their last six including a home game against Canisius. This team turns it over in over 25% of their offensive possessions and are 351st in two point shooting at 41.1% from the field. Shaheen Holloway's bunch isn't terrible at defense and that's what keeps them in it along with a slower pace. I just don't think there's a great homecourt advantage and Monmouth is just the better team. Give me the underdog here. |
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01-29-20 | Davidson v. George Washington +4.5 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
I like the Colonials tonight to make things interesting. They have won three of their last four after a four game losing streak. Upon closer review on that losing skid they fell by five to both St. Bonaventure and Duquesne at home. They also lost by five ironically at St. Louis. GW's offense is in better form right now and their defense has held six straight opponents to less than 70 points. This team plays very good D against the three pointer. Davidson has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country at 10-9, but they've won three straight. The team got healthy at Fordham and then dispatched St. Louis and George Mason at home. Outside of Axel-Gudmundsson and Grady, there aren't a ton of threats as this just isn't a deep team. I think GW can make things interesting here at home. |
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01-29-20 | VMI v. Furman OVER 144 | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Furman is 10-2 since a two game losing streak in early December and they host VMI on Wednesday. These two played in Lexington on New Year's Day and the road team won 89-73 over the Keydets. These Paladins are the 4th best two point shooting team in the country hitting 56.8% of their shots inside the arc. In conference play this team has put up 65 on ETSU with their slower pace, 73 on UNC Greensboro, 83 on Western Carolina and 101 on Samford. Furman is 332nd in two point defense themselves so you can score on them. VMI shot almost 55% from two in their loss earlier in the year. The Keydets are 1-9 since starting the year 5-7. Their offense has been pretty weak, but their defense hasn't been good either. They gave up 91 at USC Upstate and 73 at Mercer. This team wants to shoot a ton of threes. I don't know if we'll see the 162 points in Lexington, but I think it'll go over in this one. |
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01-28-20 | Butler v. Georgetown OVER 141.5 | 69-64 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
This is the classic case of a potent offense vs. a potent defense. The Hoyas have lost five of their last seven since a 10-3 start to the year. They have scored 80 points or more at home in every game except a random 65-61 loss to UNC Greensboro in late November. The Hoyas go as Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven go as they are the best two players. There's some other talent there with Jamorko Pickett, Jagan Mosely and Terrell Allen. Butler is playing at one of the slowest paces in the country and has the 22nd best adjusted efficiency defense. They've struggled in their last two road games on that side of the ball giving up 76 to Nova and 79 to DePaul. Still, this offense is so good too that I think even if it got to be a higher scoring game, that they should be able to score plenty. Georgetown home overs are almost instabet at this point. |
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01-28-20 | Ball State v. Bowling Green +1 | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Bowling Green has won six in a row entering this matchup with Ball State at home. The Falcons turn the ball over the least of anyone in the country. They don't exactly force a ton of TOs themselves, but their defensive strength is on the inside where they are holding teams to just 46.3% from two point land. BG's only home loss came in the first game of this month against Kent State 79-61. Justin Turner's return to the lineup makes things so much better for them on both sides of the ball. Ball State is 11-8 and has split their last four games. The Cardinals are 3-3 away from home with the road wins being Illinois-Chicago, Georgia Tech and Eastern Michigan. Ball State's defense is a lot stronger inside than their opponent and is slightly better offensively which is why this is only a one point spread. I like the Falcons. I think they are the better team here especially at home. |
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01-25-20 | Seattle University v. CS Bakersfield -129 | 86-79 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Bakersfield has won six of their last eight including three in a row as they host Seattle. The Roadrunners are doing it on the defensive end holding five of their last seven opponents to 65 points or less. The team does have a problem against three point shooters, but at home, they've done pretty well as of late. Yes, they lost to Cal Baptist there, but I'm just not that impressed by Seattle. The Redhawks have lost two straight and have only one road win at Chicago State which doesn't really count. The team checks in at 338th in two point shooting and 293rd in 3 point shooting. If you cover Terrell Brown, then they really don't have too many other weapons. Give me the home team here. |
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01-25-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 144.5 | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Mavericks are 11-10 on the season and they host Purdue Fort Wayne. Omaha's last three games were 87-82 (OT), 91-76 and 91-81. Their defense is rather porous especially against the three where they allow teams to shoot over 37%. At home, this team has scored 87, 74, 81, 87 and 92 since mid-December. They don't play with the same pace that they have in the past, but I think they'll find some success against the Dons. Purdue Fort Wayne is 9-12 and on a three game losing streak. They've got an awful defense and have allowed 83, 69, 83 and 89 in their last four road games. The offense isn't as potent as it has been in the past, but there are still some solid options. I think this one is an over. |
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01-25-20 | Dayton v. Richmond +6.5 | 87-79 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
The Spiders are 15-4 and are for real in some respects as they host Dayton. Richmond is the 2nd best FT shooting team, 22nd in two point FG% and 34th in three point FG. This is one of the biggest games in recent history for a program that had been down. They come at you with four starters who can shoot from outside and bang inside. Yes, they lost Blake Francis, but Sherod, Gilyard, Golden and Cayo can all be pretty lethal. Andre Gustavson is a lockdown defender so it'll be interesting to see who they stick him on. Richmond's biggest problem is with rebounding and I don't know if Dayton is big enough to take advantage. The Flyers are 17-2 on the season and are the best two point shooting team in the country. I have a feeling Richmond will let Toppin go off, but lock down the other options for the Flyers. They've played just three true road games against the two crappy Philly schools and St. Louis who nearly beat them last Friday. There aren't too many weaknesses for the Flyers, but I think this juiced up atmosphere will help make things interesting. |
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01-25-20 | SE Missouri State v. Eastern Illinois -10 | 59-61 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
EIU is playing some great basketball now as they wrap up a four game homestand on Saturday. The Panthers are coming off a 12 point win over UT-Martin and has scored 70 or more in each of these contests. EIU is 6-0 at home with all but one of those games being a double digit winner. SEMO is 4-16 and has lost seven straight games. They have wins over Purdue Fort Wayne, Denver and two lower divisional teams. On the road, this team has been an absolute trainwreck. Last time out they lost by 19 at an equally awful SIU-E. They lost by 22 at Murray State, by 15 at Austin Peay, by 19 at SIU and by 15 at Youngstown State. They are 339th in defensive efficiency and 349th in effective FG% defense. This offense is pretty brutal and they seem like a team that you can fade quite a bit. Give me the hot home team in this one. |
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01-25-20 | St. Joe's +6 v. George Washington | 69-85 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
Two of the lesser teams in the A-10 play in Foggy Bottom as GW hosts St. Joe's. The Colonials are 8-11 and have lost five of their last seven. This is a team that has already lost five times at home including falling to American and Morgan State. They don't shoot it well and don't play great defense. George Washington is coming off a 59-54 loss to Fordham on the road after two straight wins. The way they play defense, they force a lot of three point attempts which is exactly what the Hawks want to do. St. Joe's is 4th in the country in three point attempts with almost 50% of their shots coming from range. Yes, they are 4-15 on the year and play very little defense, but they are coming off a respectable 13 point loss to VCU and an 87-81 win at the Palestra against Penn. This team lost by six at Davidson in OT and already has a win at UConn. Ryan Daly will be the best player on the court and I think we can see them potentially win this outright. |
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01-25-20 | Denver v. North Dakota State OVER 141 | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
We hit our 5% play with the over in Denver's last game and it's a great team to do it against. The Pios average about 71 possessions per game and are one of the worst defenses in the country. They currently rank 341st in 2 pt defense. Denver's offense has mediocre numbers, but I don't need them to do too much of the heavy lifting here. This squad has given up 70 or more in six straight and 11 of their last 12 overall. They played North Dakota State at home in a 66-55 game which is why I think we're getting a little bit of a lower number here. The Bison play one of the slowest tempos in the country, but their offense is really effective and they rarely turn it over. NDSU at home has scored 80 or more twice already in conference play and is coming off a tough 78-73 loss to rival South Dakota State so I imagine them trying to start fast. Give me the over here. I think we can get 80 from the home team. |
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01-25-20 | NC-Greensboro v. Samford OVER 143 | 70-63 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
Greensboro has gotten over the early conference woes and has won three straight entering this one. They play at a really slow pace, but this team has had a problem at times setting their pace on the road. They beat The Citadel 79-69, Furman 86-73 and lost at Wofford 98-92 in double overtime. Isaiah Miller and James Dickey lead the way and Miller takes just over 40% of their shots. Next up is a road game against Samford who wants to fly with the 44th fastest pace and the 29th shortest offensive possessions. The team has lost five straight and has given up 88 or more in four straight. Bulldogs opponents are shooting 54.8% from two and 36.6% from long range. Their last home game was a 90-75 loss to Mercer. I just think we should see plenty of points in this one. |
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01-25-20 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4 | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
BC has lost four straight and five of their last six as they host the Hokies on Saturday. BC's last victory came at home against Virginia. Since then they lost three on the road and another by 19 against Georgia Tech. The Eagles offense is very underwhelming, but they are better with Nik Popovic healthy and Derryck Thornton as well. Popovic will be especially important considering how small Virginia Tech is. The Hokies are 14-5, 5-3 in the ACC and do a lot of things really well. They don't turn it over a ton and don't foul a lot either. They are coming off a two overtime win over North Carolina which came after a tough two point home loss against Syracuse. VT has road wins at Syracuse and Wake, but also lost by 26 at UVA. I'm playing a hunch here and think this team struggles on the road against a lesser opponent. |
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01-25-20 | Mercer v. VMI OVER 141.5 | 69-66 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
It's a quick turn around for Mercer and VMI as they played just 10 days ago with the Bears winning 73-62 at home. Since then Mercer has beaten Samford on the road 90-75 and Western Carolina 85-79 at home. This is a team that is really good at shooting the three and has had issues with defending it as well. On the road, they've also lost 79-71 at WCU and 72-63 at Greensboro. The Keydets have lost eight of their last nine with the lone win coming at home 88-79 over The Citadel. At home, this team has scored 70 or more in all but one contest. They also crank out a lot of threes and play rather porous defense. The Keydets allowed 97 to Western Carolina in Lexington and 89 to Furman there. I see a lot of points in this one. I think the over is in play. |
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01-23-20 | Seattle University v. Grand Canyon -2 | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
I think we're getting good value with the home team in this one on Thursday. Yes, the Antelopes are 7-11 on the year, but they've won two straight and three of their last five. The roster has been in flux all year long due to injuries and transfers joining the program. One of those is Mikey Dixon who has played in six games for GCU and has made a difference. Dixon comes over from St. John's. Grand Canyon's also has one of the best home courts in the country, but they are 4-5 overall there. Hence another reason why I think there's value because to me, this is a play-on team in the future. They shoot FT's well and are tough to turn over. The Redhawks are 10-10 and are coming off a 75-67 loss to New Mexico State. They are 1-6 on the road with the lone win coming at Chicago State which really doesn't count. Seattle is horrendous offensively ranking 341st in two point shooting percentage and 291st in three point shooting percentage. The only thing they do very well is not turn the ball over with just a 14.7% which is good for 5th in the country. I think there's value with Grand Canyon. Seattle has covered just once as an underdog this season. |
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01-23-20 | Texas-San Antonio +9 v. North Texas | 78-98 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
I really had high hopes for UTSA before the season, but they started out 0-5 because of a horrendous defense and an offense that struggled. They are now 9-10 on the season and have won three of four and five of their last eight. Jackson and Wallace are one of the more underrated backcourts in the country. This team is 7th best in shooting FT's and are hard to turn over. The problems continue to be on defense which is a worry in this matchup. Still, their last two road games ended in overtime losses at UTEP and FIU. North Texas is 12-8, 6-1 in the C-USA. They play one of the slowest paces in the country and have an efficient offense. Even worse, the Mean Green are in great form, but I really think there's some value with the road team. In a game that may not see a ton of possessions, this underdog is live enough to make things interesting. North Texas turns it over quite a bit. I think the Roadrunners are undervalued as a bunch. |
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01-23-20 | Denver v. North Dakota OVER 143 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
To me, there's a ton of value with the over here in this matchup. It's meeting number two between Denver and North Dakota as UND won 82-71 in Denver earlier this month. They shot 65.5% from two point land and out-rebounded the Pios 41-32. Denver is coming off a 91-76 win over Nebraska Omaha at home. Before that they had lost 10 in a row allowing 80 or more six times. They play with a quicker pace and are one of the worst defenses in the country allowing teams to shoot almost 57% from the two point land. The Fighting Hawks meanwhile play at a slightly faster than average pace, but teams are averaging just 15.8 seconds a possession which is the 5th fastest in the country. They don't force turnovers and are allowing teams to shoot over 36% from long range. North Dakota has had just five true home games with three of those being sub division one. They beat Purdue Fort Wayne 83-69 and lost 66-62 to Nebraska Omaha. Denver has gone over in 13 of their 19 lined games while North Dakota has gone over in 11 of 17. These two have combined to go over in 13 of their 16 contests when the total is in the 140s. I just think this one goes over the total as both teams should be able to put up some points. ** 5% play from 143 - 145.....4% from 145.5 - 146.....No play if it goes over 147 ** |
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01-23-20 | Campbell v. Hampton OVER 147.5 | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
The return of Jermaine Marrow to the lineup has done big things for Hampton as they host Campbell on Thursday. Marrow is 6th in the country in % of possessions used and 7th in percentage of shots taken. The guard has been fantastic since returning and so has the offense. The Pirates have scored 88, 95, 83, 73 and 92 over their last five games. Now, on the opposite side is that they are horrendous on defense. They are ranked 309th in two point defense and 310th in three point defense. Over that same five game span, the squad gave up 86, 116, 80, 83 and 85 points. Campbell is 11-8 and plays at a lot slower pace, but their offense is rather efficient with a 53.3% from two point land. They've had trouble at times setting their pace on the road and are coming off an 85-79 loss at Presbyterian in a 74 possession game. I'm going to keep riding the overs in Hampton games for now. |
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01-22-20 | CS-Northridge v. UC-Santa Barbara OVER 142.5 | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
I like the over in this one as I think CSUN's lack of defense and an uber efficient UCSB team will bring us some points. The Matadors away from home really take that name to heart. They are allowing teams to shoot 53.8% from two and 38.8% from three point land. They are getting crushed on the boards and even deliberate opponents are having quick offensive possessions. This team's offense has perked up a bit as they scored 80 in a road win at UC Riverside and have some pieces in Diane and Gomez. UCSB is really methodical on offense, but they are really efficient too. This team plays some lower possession contests, but at home they've cracked the 80 point mark five times. I really like their offense and despite the fact that their defense has been very good, they could give up some points here. I can see another 80+ point effort from the home team leading to an over. |
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01-22-20 | South Carolina v. Auburn OVER 144 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Auburn has lost two straight as South Carolina comes to town on Wednesday. The Tigers play at a pretty good pace and are shooting almost 55% from two point land. Their defense has been very leaky during this recent stretch although it's strong at home. The Tigers have allowed 83 to Alabama and 79 to Vandy the past few weeks. Their offense at home has scored 80 or more seven times already with a 79 sprinkled in there too. South Carolina plays with a really fast pace and has the 27th shortest offensive possessions. The Gamecocks aren't great offensively, but that doesn't mean there won't be plenty of possessions. They are coming of an 81-67 win at Texas A&M and an 81-78 win over Kentucky at home. There are some ugly offensive numbers in the mix as well which is why I'm going full game as opposed to first half here. I just think Auburn is going to try and flex their muscles and put on a show. |
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01-21-20 | Toledo v. Ohio OVER 141.5 | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Toledo is coming off an impressive win at Akron on Saturday night 99-89 in a game that finally saw them hit their offensive potential. The Rockets traditionally are really good on offense and are shooting almost 40% as a team from long range. Toledo has struggled at times with defense on the road giving up 84 to Kent State, 78 to Bradley and 72 to UMKC. The Bobcats are coming off a 60-58 win at Eastern Michigan. Ohio's offense is decently efficient and has played four 70+ possession games in their last five. Ironically the one game with less then 70 over that span, the score was 83-74 at home against Bowling Green. I see a lot of points scored in this one. |
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01-18-20 | Indiana State v. Valparaiso OVER 140 | 77-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Valpo is 9-9 on the season with a 2-3 record in MVC play. The Crusaders have an intriguing offense that is playing with a quicker pace then they have in the past. They have the 50th quickest offensive pace and are allowing teams to shoot nearly 55% from two point land. Teams are getting whatever they want on Valpo this season. Last time out they gave up 88 points to Northern Iowa in an 88-78 loss. There are rumblings that Ryan Fazekas could finally play in this one too. He made the road trip last time out which was new. Indiana State prefers a slower pace, but has had somewhat of a hard time installing it on the road. The Sycamores shoot 39.2% from long range as a unit and have allowed 80 at Drake, 77 at Wright State and 91 at Louisville. I think this one gets played with some pace and it goes over the total. |
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01-18-20 | Sam Houston State v. Houston Baptist OVER 175 | 95-75 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Houston Baptist plays the fastest pace in the country and is in the top 5 in quickest offensive possessions and quickest possessions by the defense. This team has given up 100 points to five straight opponents and nine overall. The Huskies are allowing teams to shoot 61.3% from two point land and almost 40% from long range. They actually are a decent three point shooting squad themselves checking in at almost 38% as a team. It's almost an insta-bet on the over in their games because they just can't set the total high enough. Sam Houston State has a top 55 pace themselves and are 15th in the country in shooting long range. They've played games with scores of 90-81 at San Francisco, 90-86 at UTRGV and 94-75 at McNeese State. SHSU won't mind the pace so I can see them getting to 100 points themselves in this contest. Continue to take the over in HBU games. |
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01-18-20 | UTEP v. Texas-San Antonio | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
The rare back to back here as UTSA now hosts UTEP after the two teams just played on Wednesday. UTSA had a massive lead and let it slip away. They did cover the number, but unfortunately fell 80-77 in overtime. The backcourt of Jackson and Wallace scored 55 points in the loss while Bryson Williams had 34 for the Miners. UTEP has not won away from home this year, but four of those were by single digits. The Roadrunners are a very good home team outside of a headscratching loss to Prairie View there. They beat their last two conference opponents by 16 and 10 there just last week. I think the rematch goes to the home team who won't blow a huge lead again in this one. |
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01-18-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Denver OVER 145 | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Denver has lost 10 straight games entering this one and you can see why with the true lack of defense they have. The Pios have allowed 86, 80, 80 and 82 in their last four games with two of those coming at home. They play at a quicker then average pace and at home seem to have a little more success on offense. Denver allows teams to shoot 58% from two point land on the year. Omaha plays at a slightly faster than average pace and has had their struggles with defense on the road. The Mavericks are coming off giving up 91 at South Dakota, but that came after a 66-62 road win at North Dakota. Other teams to show some success against them away from home were EWU who put up 97 and Dayton who scored 93. To me, this one should see some points and go over the lower than expected total. |
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01-13-20 | Coppin State v. Florida A&M OVER 145 | 54-65 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Coppin State plays with the 4th fastest pace in college basketball and have the 10th shortest possession length on offense. Now, they don't shoot the greatest from long range or the free throw line, but they do it quickly. Only four of their games had 70 possessions or less. If you look at the Eagles defense on the road, they've given up 85 to Bethune Cookman, 79 to Mount St. Mary's, 91 to Miami and 86 to UMBC. There has been just three contests away from home where they've allowed less than 70. The Rattlers are 3-11 and are the 85th fastest team in the country. They are 36th in opponent's average possession length so you figure Coppin St will get plenty of shots up. This team has won three of their last five including a 70-68 victory at Iowa State. In their first true home game of the season, they won 77-68 over Morgan State. Neither offense is all that effective, but I think there will be plenty of possessions so the over is in play. |
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01-12-20 | Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -150 | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Quite simply, I'm not ready to buy Pittsburgh as a team who can consistently win on the road in this league. The Panthers offense still isn't the best as they shoot 47.6% from two point range and 30.1% from long range. They play at a ridiculously slow pace and are coming off a 73-65 road win at UNC which apparently everyone is doing nowadays. This is the same squad that lost 69-65 at home to Wake Forest earlier this month. Miami has lost two straight, but all five of their losses are to good teams except UConn. They lost two times to Louisville and also Florida and Duke. This team shoots it well from long range and plays mediocre defense. At home they are 4-2. Chris Lykes and Dejan Vasiljevic are a solid place to start in the backcourt. I think the Canes hold serve at home. |
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01-11-20 | St. Joe's v. Davidson OVER 145.5 | 83-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Davidson comes home after losing three straight away from home. The Wildcats are one of the most disappointing teams in the country with Kellen Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson being way too good to be playing this poorly. They aren't the deepest team and don't play with the quickest tempo, but St. Joe's defense is more then accommodating. Davidson has played just three true home games this year scoring 87, 91 and 88 in those contests. The team shoots over 52% from two point land but is also allowing opponents to do so as well. St. Joe is 3-12 and has lost three straight themselves. On the road they've allowed 82, 87, 85, 108 and 84 points. Teams are shooting nearly 38% from long range against the Hawks who have one of the least efficient defenses in the country. SJU has gone over in 18 of their last 31 road games including four of five this season. Give me the over here. |
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01-11-20 | Tulane +9.5 v. Temple | 65-51 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
Tulane has lost five of their last seven as they enter this matchup at Temple. Still, the team does have a road win at Southern Miss and has played well in losses at Memphis and UConn. The Green Wave are very good shooters from long range and are pretty good at the free throw line as well. Their problems come on defense where teams shoot 54% from two point range against them. Temple has lost two straight and is now 9-5 on the year. Their offense is pretty atrocious as they shoot 45.8% from two point land and just under 68% from the free throw line. Expect to see a little zone defense from the road team as Temple has struggled with it this year. At home, they've got only three double digit victories. With this one being a noon contest, I don't expect much of an atmosphere and I think this one is a little closer then Vegas thinks. |
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01-04-20 | William & Mary v. Northeastern OVER 143 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
The Tribe have a chance to go 3-0 in the CAA with three road wins as they take on Northeastern on Saturday. The team beat Elon 74-73 in 2019 and then won at Hofstra 88-61 in a 71 possession game. They've got six road wins already this season and have one of the more efficient offenses in the country. They are shooting 55.5% from two point land and almost 38% from long range and feature the twin towers of Nathan Knight and Andy Van Vliet. Northeastern is 9-6 with three wins in conference over the dregs of the CAA. They are one of the slower teams in the country, but are also highly efficient with the 6th best success from long range and the 4th best from the free throw line. It's hard to get a gauge on the Huskies who have played both high and low scoring games at home. I just feel like the team from Williamsburg lets down here and we go over the total. |
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01-04-20 | Notre Dame +3.5 v. Syracuse | 88-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
I don't get why Syracuse is getting any respect in this game. They have not beaten a quality team yet this season. The Orange's best win is probably at Georgia Tech, but at home it's Colgate who is 121 in KenPom. Outside of Elijah Hughes, it's really hard to find consistent scoring on this team and there will be absolutely no home-court advantage. Students won't be there and the fanbase has somewhat checked out on this boring team to watch. Notre Dame is 9-4 with a bunch of terrible wins too. They did beat both Toledo and UCLA at home and have a two point loss to Indiana on the resume as well. They don't turn the ball over and have some decent shooters on the roster. John Mooney is going to be able to do whatever he wants inside while TJ Gibbs and Dane Goodwin will be the zone busters. I just think this is just a bit too many points. Mike Brey is in a good spot here especially getting points. |
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01-04-20 | UTEP v. Florida Atlantic | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
So much is going on surrounding this UTEP team right now and they've got to deal with it on the road in Florida. Over the past 72 hours, they've seen two kids transfer and one kid come back and their coach is in the hospital due to an allergic reaction. UTEP has lost two straight and four of their last five. One of the kids who transferred out was Jordan Lathon who was the starting point guard. The Miners lost 69-67 at FIU on Thursday and have to play this game 48 hours later. FAU is no great shakes, but they are 9-5 this season and have played some good defense. They've held six straight opponents to less then 70 points. The Owls are coming off a 79-64 win at home against UTSA and have won five of their last six. I just think it's a lot for UTEP to handle on the road so I think they lose this one as well and they'll regroup at home. |
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01-04-20 | Western Carolina v. The Citadel OVER 162 | 86-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
The Citadel wants to run and gun and it shows with the 18th fastest pace in the country. They are allowing opponents to shoot 61% from two point land which is one of the highest in the country. At home, they've allowed 87, 91 and 96 to their division one opponents. The Bulldogs offense works better there though as well. Western Carolina has the 43rd fastest pace in the country and their opponents have possessions of just 16.2 seconds which is 24th fastest. On the road, they've played games with scores of 91-72, 79-74, 96-94, 70-64, 74-61 and 89-76. The common thread is that they succeed more when the opposition wants to run. Xavier and Stetson didn't want to and those were the two lowest scores. The Catamounts didn't mind running with the Bulldogs last year with scores of 103-82 at home and 94-82 on the road. Give me the over here. |
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01-04-20 | Creighton +6.5 v. Butler | 57-71 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Creighton is 12-2 on the season and is one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They are 11th in KenPom in adjusted efficiency and are 21st in effective FG%. The team has a road win at Arizona State to go along with a loss to Michigan away from home. The Blue Jays are pretty good against the three but could be a little bit better defensively. Butler is 13-1 on the year and is one of the slowest teams in the country. They are 345th in terms of average possession length. The defense has been absolutely fantastic, but there's a question mark with Kamar Baldwin who is a game-time decision. Remember that we are still probably in the time when the students aren't on campus so home courts aren't as strong as normal. This team won by two at St. John's in their first conference game and the only loss was by one at Baylor. I just think this is too many points for a solid road team that can score. |
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12-29-19 | Richmond +6.5 v. Alabama | 78-90 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
12-19-19 | William & Mary -1 v. St. Joe's | 69-84 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
St. Joe's is 2-9 on the season and has had a nine day break since losing 108-61 to Temple in a city rivalry game. The Hawks play very little defense and are allowing teams to shoot 41.1% from long range. There's an injury of note to an already shallow rotation which gives them eight players to work with, but a couple are deep bench guys. This puts a ton of pressure on Ryan Daly to get offense going along with Lorenzo Edwards. They are also without Taylor Funk who was another piece on offense. William and Mary is 8-3 and has already gotten their post exam break game out of the way beating Goucher 90-30. This team has road wins against High Point, American, Wofford and Fairfield. They aren't as fast as they've been in the past, but still feature a very effective FG% that is 28th in the country. I am worried that they don't force enough turnovers, but I think this team gets the win on Thursday on the road. There won't be much of an atmosphere in Philly. |
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12-07-19 | Northern Illinois v. UC-Davis +4 | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
I don't completely understand this line. Yes, UC Davis is 3-7 on the year with their wins coming over William Jessup, Idaho and Northern Arizona, but if you look at some of their losses they fell by 4 at Utah, by 6 at California and by 10 at Portland and Sacramento State. This team is solid offensively, but has their struggles on defense. Once again though, when you face two PAC-12 schools, it'll throw the numbers off. This is just the Aggies second home game of the season. NIU is nothing special especially on offense where they are 318th in two point shooting percentage. They are coming off a 61-49 loss at St. Mary's and needed late runs to beat Western Illinois and awful SIU Edwardsville on the road. The Huskies are just 12-12 against the spread the past three years as a favorite. These two played in DeKalb last year and it was a 71-62 win for the home team as a 7.5 point favorite. I think the home team can win this one so I'll take the points. |
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12-07-19 | UC-Santa Barbara +6 v. Texas-Arlington | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas Arlington is 4-5 this season. They won their first two games and then lost three before alternating wins and losses. Arlington's offense is not very effective and they are one of the worst shooting squads in the country. The Mavericks shoot 45.2% from two point range and 31% from long range. This team is coming off a loss at home to North Texas 77-66 and if their defense isn't on, then their offense won't save them. The Gauchos play at one of the slowest paces in the country, but they've won four straight by virtue of their defense. Now look, the opponents weren't great, but there's a ton of talent here. Matt Freeman has been a strong member of the team shooting 51.7% from long range and he complements Max Heidegger and JaQuori McLaughlin well. UCSB is 21-8 against the spread the last three seasons in non-conference games. |
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12-07-19 | La Salle v. Drexel OVER 143 | 71-63 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
It's a battle in Philly as Drexel hosts La Salle. The Explorers are 4-3 and have lost all three of their previous games against the rest of the schools in the area falling 75-59 at Penn, 70-65 at home to Temple and 83-72 at Villanova. A couple of things to point out here as the team shoots 45.4% from two point range and 65.2% from the free throw line. The average possession length for opponents on offense against them is 15.9 secs which is the 19th shortest in the country. Drexel is 5-4 with all five wins coming at home. Granted, the only solid victory of the group was Princeton, but this team's offense is pretty good. They've scored over 80 four times already this season and are 52nd in effective FG%. I think this one screams over and a play on the home team as well. Last year Drexel won 89-84 in this game and also beat them 72-70 in 2017. |
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12-03-19 | Oral Roberts v. Creighton OVER 152 | 60-72 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Creighton is back home to start a stretch of four home games as they host Oral Roberts. This team is coming off a 1-1 trip to Vegas in which they beat Texas Tech and lost to San Diego State by 31. The Blue Jays offense is one of the most efficient in the country and is shooting 53.2% from two point land and 38.2% from long range. Creighton's defense is pretty bad too allowing teams to shoot 53% from up close. They've allowed 70 or more to five opponents this season. Marcus Zegarowski and Ty-Shon Alexander are two of the better players on the team. Oral Roberts has an adjusted tempo of 75 possessions which is 21st in the country. Teams are taking just 15 secs to get a shot up on ORU. In games against steps up in competition, the Golden Eagles lost 80-75 at Oklahoma State and 87-74 at Iowa. ORU has gone over in 33 of their last 52 as an underdog and 21 of their last 36 road games. I think this one is an over too. |
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12-03-19 | Vermont +7 v. Cincinnati | 73-82 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Cincinnati is 5-2 on the season, but has played three straight overtime games. The Bearcats are not playing their trademark defense right now and are one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country checking in at 28.7% from long range. This team goes as Jarron Cumberland goes and for some reason he has been in and out of the lineup. They have Chris Vogt in the middle and Jaevin Cumberland as well, but this team isn't as deep and has Xavier up next this weekend. Vermont is 6-3 on the year with the losses being by six at UVA, by 5 against Rider in CT and by 13 at Yale last time out. The Catamounts are also shooting terribly from long range and are at 25.5% as a team. Vermont has wins at St. Bonaventure and St. John's already this season and are one of the better defenses in the league. I think they are well worth a look here. |
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11-26-19 | Longwood v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 125 | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
11-26-19 | Mercer +6.5 v. St Bonaventure | 51-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
St. Bonaventure is 1-4 on the season with lone win coming over Rutgers on a neutral court a couple of weeks ago. The Bonnies offense is pretty putrid with an effective FG% of 44%. They have scored just 53, 59, 65, 80 and 57 this season and are coming off a 61-57 loss to Canisius. Kyle Lofton does a lot of the heavy lifting with Dominick Welch as well. Mercer is 4-2 and they play at a ridiculous pace home and on the road. They have a road win against Illinois Chicago to go along with wins against Florida Gulf Coast and Kennesaw State. The losses came by 30 at St. John's and by 10 at Georgia Southern. This team shoots 41% from long range and is pretty good on the boards as well. I'm just not a fan of the Bonnies. Give me the underdog here. |
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11-26-19 | Grambling State v. Portland State OVER 153.5 | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Portland State and Grambling take the court in Santa Barbara on Tuesday. The Vikings are 2-3 on the year, and are the 39th quickest team in the country. This team has scored 70 or more in every game and has allowed 75 or more to every division one squad. They play very little defense giving up 76 to San Jose State and 82 to Portland. Grambling State is 3-2 with wins over 2 lower level schools and one against SE Louisiana 81-70 on the road. They then followed that up with a 83-76 loss at San Jose St and a 80-58 loss at Oregon State. This team plays even less defense then PSU does. I think this one should see plenty of points on Tuesday. |
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11-26-19 | New Mexico State v. South Florida +2.5 | 65-45 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
New Mexico State is a banged up bunch entering this one on Tuesday. Senior guard Terrell Brown went 0-for-6 from the field and is nursing a strained groin. He's playing another game just a day later and can't be 100%. Trevelin Queen put up 19 points but had six turnovers after he injured some fingers on his right hand last week. Those are two of the more important players on the roster. This team plays very little defense giving up 70 points or more in three straight games. I tried fading USF last time unsuccessfully but they beat Loyola Chicago 66-55 last time out. They are 3rd in KenPom ratings in turnover% at 30.8%. Their defense can be exploited a little bit as shown in their losses to BC and IUPUI. There are things not to like about this team but David Collins and Laquincy Rideau are a solid duo with some other depth pieces. Give me USF here. |
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11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Seattle University OVER 138.5 | 55-59 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Western Michigan's defense leaves a lot to be desired. They've allowed 70 points or more in all but one contest against a D1 level team. They play with a modest pace, but have plenty of talent offensively led by Michael Flowers, Brandon Johnson and B Artis White. Seattle definitely struggles on the defensive side of the ball having allowed 77 to Bucknell on Monday and 89 to Syracuse. Heck, they even gave up 81 to Pacific Oregon back on November 12th. They are allowing teams to shoot 56.2% from to point land. Seattle's offense isn't shooting very well, but I think they can find some success against the squad from the MAC. Give me the over here. |
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11-25-19 | Northwestern v. Bradley -1.5 | 78-51 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
Bradley gets the rare crack at a Big 10 team as they take on Northwestern in Fort Myers Florida. The Braves are 4-1 on the season with their only loss coming to St. Joe's on the road 86-81. They then picked up wins over IUPUI, UIC, Norfolk State and Radford. This team is playing some of their trademark defense especially against the three where teams are shooting just 25.2%. Darrell Brown and Elijah Childs are intriguing while Koch Bar patrols the middle. Northwestern is 2-2 and doesn't do a lot right. Their losses are at home to Merrimack and Radford while the wins are over Providence and Norfolk State. They want to play a slower game as they just don't have a ton of talent. The team has an effective FG% of 41.9% on the season which is good for 318th. They've lost a ton of talent and sometimes the more veteran bunch plays better in a tournament situation. Give me the Braves. |
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11-25-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Indiana OVER 138.5 | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech heads to Indiana on Monday night as they look to move to 5-1. The Bulldogs only loss came in an 82-72 game at Creighton. Their wins haven't been that impressive with all the teams ranked either 280 or above. La Tech is shooting 56.1% from two point land, but needs to work on their long range output. The defense has been strong for the most part outside of the one game against someone with talent. LT has four double digit scorers led by transfer Kalob Ledoux. Indiana is 5-0 and has not left home yet this year. They are shooting 60.8% from two point range and are playing at a moderate pace. The team has scored 98, 85, 91, 100 and 79 this season against opponents ranked 200 or above by Ken Pomeroy. I just think this one should go over the total with both sides finding some success. |
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11-25-19 | Loyola-Chicago -1.5 v. South Florida | 55-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Loyola Chicago is 3-2 on the season as they begin a tournament in the Cayman Islands against USF on Monday. The Ramblers have wins over UC Davis, St. Joe's and IUPUI in which they topped 80 points in each contest. They lost at Furman in a blowout and then lost a tight one at home against Coppin State four days later. This team is so efficient on offense shooting 62.9% from two point land with the likes of Cameron Krutwig inside and Tate Hall and Lucas Williamson on the outside. South Florida is 2-2 on the year with wins over Arkansas Pine Bluff and Wofford to go with losses to BC and IUPUI at home. This offense is pretty awful and the defense is bad against long range shooters. The Bulls want to turn you over and if they can't then they will struggle. The loss of Alexis Yetna hangs over this team as they are just not as strong inside. David Collins and Laquincy Rideau do a lot of the heavy lifting. Give me the team out of the MVC in a tight line here. |
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11-24-19 | Nicholls State +1.5 v. Maryland-Baltimore County | 82-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
UMBC is 4-2 on the season, but three of their wins came against Valley Forge, St. Mary's of Maryland and Georgian Court. Their only D1 victory came over Florida Gulf Coast 65-61. The Retrievers lost by 27 to LSU and by 17 to Eastern Michigan. This team is horrific offensively with an effective FG% of 39.9 which is good for 334th in the country. They shoot 54% from the FT line and 22.5% from long range. On the other side, you've got Nicholls State who has already played Illinois, Pittsburgh, LSU and Rhode Island. They lost by eight in OT at Illinois, by 10 at LSU, and by 5 at Rhode Island. The Colonels did beat Pittsburgh at their place 75-70. Their offensive numbers aren't great either, but you can see why considering the competition. This team forces a lot of turnovers, but doesn't shoot it great offensively. I think they are the better team and getting points sounds fantastic. |
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11-24-19 | North Florida v. Creighton OVER 149.5 | 67-76 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Creighton overs have been very good to me and I think they will be again here too. Creighton has scored 81, 69, 82 and 86 points this season as they've had a lot of success from long range. The team is shooting 42.7% from three point land and is 9th on KenPom's adjusted efficiency list. They aren't the deepest team in the world, but they can shoot it and run some offense as well. The problem is on the defensive side where teams are shooting nearly 57% from two point land. Cal Poly's offense is rather weak yet they put up 70 on Friday. North Florida plays at a quicker pace and shoots a ton of three's. When they go in, games like they had against Florida National and Georgia Southern happen in which they put up 80 or more. When they don't go in, the Florida game on opening night happens when they lost 74-59. The team's defense isn't very good and they are allowing opponents to crush them inside. The Ospreys lost 83-68 at Iowa just a few nights ago. Still, I think both offenses find success here and we soar over the total. |
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11-23-19 | CS Bakersfield v. Gonzaga OVER 141 | 49-77 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Bakersfield's defense has been absolutely hideous this season giving up 100 to San Francisco on the road and 93 at home to South Dakota State. The Roadrunners two wins have come over Notre Dame de Namur and Life Pacific. They also lost 67-55 at Northern Iowa in a 61 possession game. Teams are shooting 48.2% from long range against Bakersfield. Richmond transfer De'Monte Buckingham has been a vital cog to this team this season. Gonzaga has been one of the best offensive teams in the country. They have a effective field goal percentage of nearly 60%. The team is shooting 60.1% from two point land and 38% from long range. The Zags have scored 95, 110, 97, 79 and 72 so far this season. The defense has been very good as well. Still, I think Gonzaga gets to 90 again and we go over the total. |
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11-23-19 | Boise State v. Pacific +4.5 | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Boise State is 2-2 on the season after an emotional overtime win over BYU last time out at home 72-68. The Broncos had lost to Oregon 106-75 and UC Irvine 69-60 with the other win coming over Life Pacific 126-49. There's a lot of peripherals that aren't great involving this team. They are shooting 20.6% from long range and are allowing teams to shoot 55.6% from 2 point land and 41.7% from long range. Pacific is 5-2 on the year with most of their wins coming against pure garbage. They've beaten Cal St. Stanislaus, Pacific Union, Florida A&M, UC Riverside and Coppin State with the losses coming to South Dakota and Hawaii. This is one of the slowest teams in the country with their average possessions taking 20 seconds. Still, they are pretty efficient offensively and are playing pretty good defense. I think Boise could be hung over and not ready for this one after the quick turnaround. Give me the home dog in this one. |
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11-23-19 | Grand Canyon -160 v. Fordham | 58-70 | Loss | -160 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm fading Fordham whenever I get the chance especially with a short line here. The Rams were outclassed yesterday when we took Nevada against them. They play good defense, but they don't score a ton. Grand Canyon has been very disappointing so far as they are waiting for some talent to get cleared next month. Still, a few of their losses were excusable to Illinois and San Diego State. They beat the bad teams on their slate Arkansas Pine Bluff by 13 and Montana State also by 13. It was a tough loss last time out against Valpo 78-74. This team is not as deep as I'd like but once again, I think Fordham is hideous. Give me the Antelopes here. |
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11-22-19 | Wake Forest v. Davidson OVER 141 | 82-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
I've taken overs in both teams' games this season and of course will look to do so when they play each other. Davidson is 2-2 with wins over UNC Wilmington and Nevada and losses to Auburn and Charlotte. The Wildcats have scored 178 points in their last two victories despite playing 67 and 68 possession games. They are one of the slowest teams in the country and they allow teams to shoot almost 58% from two point land. Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson are a very potent duo, but they've got solid role players too. Wake Forest is 2-2 with wins against Columbia and UNC Asheville to go with losses to BC and Charlotte. Wake's defense is rather porous allowing 79 to the Bulldogs and 77 to the Eagles. Andrien White is a solid addition coming over from Charlotte to go along with Brandon Childress and Chaundee Brown. Olivier Sarr is the seven footer for the Demon Deacons. Wake won this game 67-63 last year as a two point underdog. I just think this one goes over the lower total on Friday. |
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11-22-19 | McNeese State v. Richmond OVER 148 | 57-87 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
McNeese State will play their fifth road game of the season already as they come in 2-4 into this matchup. The Cowboys have allowed 75 or more to every one of their D1 opponents as their two wins have come against Southern New Orleans and Arlington Baptist. These guys gave up 90 to New Mexico, 83 to Wisconsin, 85 to Louisiana and 75 to Western Michigan. They aren't bad offensively with an effective FG% of 55.1 which is well above average in basketball right now. Richmond is 3-0 on the year and they've scored 100, 93 and 90 so far this season. They are actually 8th in the effective FG% category themselves. The Spiders have a fantastic offense that is capable of putting up 90 themselves. Their defense has struggled at times giving up 98 to St. Francis of PA and 92 to Vanderbilt, granted both were in overtimes. Opponents are shooting 42% from long range against Richmond. I think this team is an over team this season and will be looking to jump on it when possible. |
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11-22-19 | Fordham v. Nevada -5.5 | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Fordham is 3-0 this season, but their wins came over St. Francis of NY, Fairleigh Dickinson and Marist. In those games, they showed how limited they were offensively with 68, 53 and 58 points scored respectively. They shoot 42.1% from two point range and 52.2% from the free throw line. Fordham's defense has been good, but none of those teams are very potent. Nevada is 2-3, but they've challenged themselves a lot more. The Wolf Pack beat Loyola Marymount by five and UT-Arlington by 7. The losses came by 5 to Utah, by 10 to USC and by 20 at Davidson. This team shoots it well, but struggles a little bit on defense. They don't force enough turnovers. Still, I like Jazz Johnson and Lindsey Drew along with Jalen Harris from Louisiana Tech. I'm going to take my chances on a neutral court with the better team and a reasonable line. |
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11-22-19 | Missouri State v. St. Joe's OVER 142 | 71-69 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
St. Joe's is one of the fastest teams in the country with the ninth fastest adjusted tempo as every game has been 70 possessions or more. The Hawks defense is rather porous allowing 81 to Bradley, 82 to ODU, 87 to UConn, 85 to Loyola Chicago and 70 to Florida. Teams are shooting 41.2% from long range against them. The offense has actually been better then people think with Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk being their better weapons. Missouri State is one of the slowest teams in the country, but their offense can be pretty efficient. They put up 73 at home on Cleveland State and 70 on Miami yesterday in a game that saw 67 possessions. I think these two should be able to put up some points on Friday afternoon. Give me the over here. I think the Hawks go over the majority of the time. |
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11-21-19 | Toledo v. Notre Dame OVER 139 | 62-64 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
The Rockets offense has been fantastic so far this season shooting 47.3% from long range and 54.7% from up close. Toledo has scored 70 or more in all four games with the lowest total being 70 against Robert Morris in a 65 possession game. Marreon and Willie Jackson are pretty strong along with Luke Knapke patrolling the middle. Defensively teams are shooting every 15.8 seconds or so during their possession. Notre Dame is 4-1 since a 76-65 loss to North Carolina on the road. Outside of a 61 possession game against Presbyterian, this team has played games at 70 or more. During this home stretch against cupcakes, the Irish have put up 92, 79, 74 and 63. Toledo has gone over in 18 of their last 30 road games including 10 of 15 as a road underdog. I think this total is too low for two potent offenses. |
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11-21-19 | Howard v. Marshall OVER 152.5 | 63-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Marshall is 1-3 on the season and have lost three straight since a 67-60 win over Robert Morris. The Thundering Herd have lost 96-70 to Toledo, 74-64 to Notre Dame and 76-66 to Charleston. Marshall is currently running the 11th fastest adjusted tempo with the sixth quickest average possession length of 14 seconds. The Thundering Herd's offense hasn't been good enough, but I think they could find the success they need here. Taevion Kinsey and Jarrod West are the leaders here. Howard is 0-5 and is ranked 348th in defensive adjusted efficiency. This team has given up 70 or more to all of their opponents and somehow lost at home to Washington Adventist who is a level below. Howard's last loss was a 73 possession contest against Toledo 112-68. Teams are shooting 62.3% from two point range against the Bison. Give me the over here. |
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11-21-19 | Loyola Marymount v. Air Force -2 | 78-64 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
The Falcons are 2-2 on the season and I think we are getting them at a good price here on the neutral court in the Bahamas. Air Force teams don't get distracted by exotic locales and things like that. This is a veteran bunch who is very capable of winning a game or two in this tourney. The Falcons have wins over Texas State and Army with losses to Idaho State and TCU. Lavelle Scottie and Ryan Swan are two of the many players who will score some points. Last game against the Horned Frogs we saw Air Force have not a single double digit scorer yet they were hanging tough. The Lions are 1-2 so far with the win over Westcliff to go with losses to Nevada and Colorado State. Yes, this team lost by five at Nevada, but they play at a slow pace and are allowing teams to shoot almost 60% from two point land. Mattias Markusson is redshirting this year and he would have made a big difference for this Loyola Marymount team. Give me the Air Force in essentially a pick'em situation. |
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11-20-19 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Oregon State OVER 141.5 | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
The Gauchos are one of the slowest teams in the country, yet they are really effective on offense shooting 63% from two point land. They are 1-2 with a 83-62 win over Jackson State to go with a 77-61 loss to UCLA and a crushing 82-81 loss to Rice in which they were up really big. UCSB is allowing teams to shoot nearly 44% from long range. Max Heidegger is an underrated guard and JaQuori McLaughlin and Matt Freeman are key pieces too. Oregon State also plays slow yet they are effective as well. This team has wins over CSUN (87-67), Iowa State (80-74) and Wyoming (83-63) to go with a 77-69 loss to Oklahoma. Tres Tinkle is one of those guys who feel like he's been in school forever which is the ultimate complement. Ethan Thompson is pretty good and Kylor Kelley is a solid seven foot center. Give me the over here. |
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11-20-19 | Stephen F Austin +13.5 v. Rutgers | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
SFA is 4-0 on the season with four home wins over LeTourneau, NC Central, Niagara and Drexel. They've scored 80 points or more in each contest and are hitting just over 55% of their two pointers. Also of importance, they are turning people over at a 34.6% clip which is number one according to KenPom. The problem is that when they aren't turning you over, then they are giving up baskets. Rutgers is 3-1 with home wins over Bryant, Niagara and Drexel to go with a neutral court loss to St. Bonaventure. The Scarlet Knights beat Bryant by two and Drexel by 5 at home. They prefer a slower game because they don't have a ton of offensive weapons. Also, this team does not shoot very well from long range with a 28% from three point land. I just don't think they are good enough to lay this many points to a competent opponent. I like Kyle Keller as a coach and think he has a little bit of an advantage here as well. |
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11-20-19 | Northern Kentucky +8.5 v. Ball State | 59-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
NKU is 3-1 on the season with wins over Cincinnati Clermont, Coastal Carolina and Coppin State. The Norse are playing at a slower pace, but are 1-1 away from home with the loss coming 71-56 at Missouri. This team's shooting 52.3% from two point range and are holding teams to just 25.8% from long range. They've got four solid scorers with Tyler Sharpe, Karl Harris and Trevon Faulkner forming a solid backcourt along side Dantez Walton up front. Ball State is 3-1, but their wins were against Defiance, UIC and Indiana State. They are putting up solid defensive numbers, but the competition is pretty weak with the loss coming 79-75 at Evansville. Tahjai Teague and KJ Walton are a pretty solid duo. Ball State is 8-16 against the spread in their last 24 home games and have covered just 15 of their last 40 as a favorite. I like the underdog in this one to make things interesting. |
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11-20-19 | Eastern Washington v. Boston College OVER 142.5 | 68-72 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Boston College is 3-1 on the season and is coming off a tough 100-85 home loss to Belmont on Saturday. The Eagles had been pretty good offensively beating Wake 77-70, South Florida 74-60 and High Point 59-33. In each game they went over 70 possessions with Derryck Thornton leading the way. This offense isn't the greatest in terms of talent, but the defense can be rather leaky against decent offenses. Eastern Washington wants to play with some pace on both ends of the floor. They beat Portland Bible 107-25 and Seattle 74-66 before falling 82-60 to St. Louis. The offensive numbers aren't that great, but the defensive numbers are so poor that I think the home team will do a lot of the heavy lifting. BC has gone over in 21 of their last 33 games when the total is in the 140s. They've also gone over in 19 of their last 33 home games including two of three this season. Give me the over here. |
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11-19-19 | Mississippi Valley State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 153 | 43-76 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech/Creighton was my 5% play on Saturday as an over play. The Bulldogs lost 82-72 in a game that saw them have 71 possessions. This team is shooting almost 57% from two point land and already has scored 82 and 98 in their other two contests. Their defense has had a little bit of an issue especially against three point shooting. One of the fastest teams and worst defenses in the league resides in Mississippi Valley State. They've lost games 110-74 to Iowa State, 143-49 to Utah, 134-78 to Central Michigan and 91-81 to Western Michigan. The Delta Devils are allowing teams to shoot 61.7% from two point land and 41.5% from three point land. The average possession length on defense is 13.1 seconds which is the fastest in basketball. Give me the over here as I think the Bulldogs get to at least 90. |
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11-19-19 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Kent State OVER 149 | 68-75 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Kent State is 3-0 on the season, playing just their second home game. This team has wins over Hiram (97-58), Towson (84-80, OT) and Wright State (72-71). They are a modestly paced team who has had 72 possessions or more in all three contests. There is plenty to like about this team with Philip Whittington, Danny Pippen and Antonio Williams. Fort Wayne is 2-3 on the year and as long as the numbers are reasonable, I will take the over in their game. This team has allowed 80 points to Manchester, 86 to UNLV, 79 to SEMO and 84 to Miami-Ohio. Now their offense has scored 70 or more in every game themselves and are shooting 54.5% from two point range. Jon Konchar is gone, but they have a little more balance this year. Fort Wayne has gone over in 23 of their last 31 road games while KSU has gone over in 16 of their last 28 at home. Give me the over here. |
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11-19-19 | Nevada v. Davidson OVER 143.5 | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Nevada is 2-2 on the young season with home wins over Loyola Marymount (72-67) and UT-Arlington (80-73) to go with losses to Utah (79-74) and USC (76-66). Every game was played with 70 possessions or more as this team averages just 15 seconds per possession. The Wolf Pack are playing pretty well against the long range shooters but are allowing teams to shoot better then 50% from two point land. Jazz Johnson and Lindsey Drew are the leading returnees to a team that saw a lot of graduations. Jalen Harris is another contributor who comes over from Louisiana Tech. Davidson is a disappointing 1-2 so far with the win coming Saturday against UNC Wilmington 87-49. They had some tough losses against Auburn and Charlotte. This offense has way too much talent to continue to struggle with Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson leading the way. This is one of the slower paced teams in the country which is why the total is lower. I still think this one should go over with these two offenses who can score. |
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11-17-19 | Georgia State v. Georgetown OVER 151 | 83-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Georgia State is 1-2 on the year with the win coming over Brewton Parker 104-35 and the losses coming to Charleston (84-80) and Duke (74-63). The Panthers are averaging the 20th least average possession length meaning they want to play quickly. GSU is allowing an awful 44.2% offensive rebounds to their opponent. This team has no problems playing a game with over 70 possessions. Georgetown is another quick shooting team. They are 2-1 with an 81-68 win over Mt. St Mary's and a 89-78 win over Central Arkansas. They are coming off an 81-66 loss at home to Penn State and are staring at a game against Texas next. Omer Yurtseven should have a field day against this smaller team. I think this one should see plenty of possessions and plenty of points. |
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11-17-19 | UCF v. Illinois State OVER 133.5 | 67-65 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
I think there's some value here with the lower total in the UCF/ISU game. Central Florida is 1-1 with a 73-69 home win over Prairie View A&M and a 79-70 loss at home to Miami. The win featured 72 possessions with the loss featuring 69. Ideally, this team does not want to go fast, but their defense isn't as strong with Tacko Fall not patrolling the middle anymore. Teams are shooting 39% from long range against them. The leaders are Dazon Ingram and Matt Milon who are transfers into the program along with Collin Smith and Ceasar DeJesus. Illinois State is 2-0 beating Belmont 79-72 and Little Rock 75-70 in a pair of 69 possession games. Illinois State is hitting 46% of their threes but are allowing opponents to make 60.9% of their two pointers. The Redbirds are led by Zach Copeland and have Ricky Torres who came over from Wichita State. UCF has gone over in 14 of their last 25 when the total is in the 130s. Last year this game was a 77-56 home victory for the Knights, but as I said, it had Tacko Fall who made a huge difference. I think this one can go over the lower total. |
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11-16-19 | Troy State v. Indiana OVER 145 | 62-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Troy is 0-2 on the season as they head to Indiana on Saturday. The Trojans lost 76-75 to UAB and 74-68 to Chattanooga with both games being at home. Their defensive adjusted efficiency is pretty bad meaning Indiana should be able to get whatever they want. Darian Adams averages 16 points through two games and is 8-of-14 from long range. He's got Charles Norman and KJ Simon with him in the backcourt. Troy has been shooting 40.7% from long range, but they are not doing much from the free throw line. Indiana is 3-0 as they take on the low of the low's in the KenPom rankings. They beat WIU 98-65, Portland State 85-74 and North Alabama 91-65. In each game except one they had over 70 possessions and at times struggled defensively. The Hoosiers are allowing opponents to shoot 40.7% from long range. Indiana has gone over in 12 of their last 17 November games including all three this year. I think this one goes over the total as well. |
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11-16-19 | Stetson v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 149 | 55-79 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Stetson is 2-0 entering their game against Fort Wayne on Saturday. The Hatters went 7-24 last year, but have some talent back under new head coach Donnie Jones. They beat Trinity Baptist 84-26 in game one and then followed it up with a road win at Western Illinois 77-75. This team has been very efficient on offense through two games shooting almost 55% from two point land and 45% from long range. They have not been forcing turnovers though and are pretty bad on defense. The Mastodons are 1-3 with a 91-80 win over Manchester to go with losses of 86-71 to UNLV, 79-78 to SEMO and 84-80 to Miami-Ohio. Defensively, this team is rather awful ranking 319th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They are shooting well from the field themselves, but are allowing teams to shoot 54.5% from two and 37.1% from three. I've said it before and I'll say it again...this team's overs are almost instabets for the most part. They play with pace and can't stop anyone. |
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11-16-19 | NC-Wilmington v. Davidson OVER 144 | 49-87 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
UNC Wilmington is 2-1 on the season and is at Davidson on Saturday. The Seahawks wins came 103-83 over Johnson and Wales and 81-76 against Campbell with the loss being 78-62 to UNC. This team plays little to no defense and hasn't the past few years. Davidson is 0-2 and will probably use this game to get a lot of frustrations out after losing 76-66 to Auburn and 71-58 to Charlotte. Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson are too good to see this team continue to lose like this. Their starting five is very good and will want to exorcise some demons. Last year this game was 91-85 on the road and 108-81 at home for Davidson. UNC Wilmington has gone over in 11 of their last 12 games with a total in the 140s. I think this one continues that trend. |
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11-16-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Creighton OVER 142 | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech returns four starters and are led by McNeese State transfer Kalob Ledoux who is averaging 15.5 points per game for the Bulldogs. Ledoux is shooting 7-of-17 from deep and is a good complementary scorer to DaQuan Bracey who is more of a distributor. The lineup also includes JaColby Pemberton who plays bigger then his 6'5" frame. This team wants to play fast forcing 49 turnovers in two games so far. Creighton's depth has been challenged, but their coach says that they are going to continue to keep things fast. The Blue Jays are 1-1 with an 81-55 win over Kennesaw State and a 79-69 loss to Michigan. This team is 6th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency. They are allowing opponents to shoot 58% from two point land. To me, this is an over with both teams wanting to go. |
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11-15-19 | North Carolina Central v. Akron OVER 140.5 | 47-57 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Akron basketball is 1-1 entering the season and the Zips are playing with a better pace then they have in the past. This team has an 81-64 win over Malone to go with a 94-84 loss at West Virginia. The two games were played with 72 and 84 possessions so I expect something in that area again on Friday. Xeyrius Williams comes over from Dayton and he's been a big addition to go along with Tyler Cheese who is a combo guard. NC Central is 1-1 with a 94-64 loss to Stephen F Austin on the road and a 73-64 home win over USC Upstate. The Eagles are not very efficient offensively and are much worse defensively. The one thing they do well is shoot from long range where they are hitting at a 44.4% clip. These two teams should be able to go over the lower total. NC Central is slower, but clearly doesn't mind playing with some pace. |
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11-15-19 | Western Michigan +19.5 v. Ole Miss | 58-85 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Western Michigan is a very competent team entering this one against Ole Miss. The Broncos have wins over McNeese State (75-65), Milwaukee (115-110 3OT) and Mississippi Valley State (91-81). This is their first tough game of the season, but I really like Michael Flowers and Jason Whitens who are the veteran leaders of this team along with Brandon Johnson and Artis White. Ole Miss is 2-0, but their wins have come at home over Arkansas State (71-43) and Norfolk State (68-55). They are led by KJ Buffen inside and have Devontae Shuler and Breein Tyree chipping in with double digit points. I just think this is way too many points for a team that can score and play a little bit of defense. Â |
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11-15-19 | Missouri State +14 v. Xavier | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Missouri State is 2-1 on the season so far. They lost their opener 67-66 to Little Rock and then followed it up with a 59-50 win over Alabama State and a 73-53 victory over Cleveland State. I think this team will be a factor in the Missouri Valley race and has a nice mix of talent. Tulio Da Silva and Keandre Cook are studs with Tyrik Dixon coming over from Middle Tennessee and Lamont West from West Virginia. Xavier is 3-0 with a 19 point win over Jacksonville, an 18 point win over Siena and a 5 point overtime victory over Missouri. The Musketeers are outscoring their first three opponents 113-76 in the first half with a score of 95-95 in the second half. It's a bit concerning that the Bears coach has talked about the team finding their identity, but the talent is there. I think they make things interesting here. |
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11-15-19 | Cleveland State v. South Carolina -23 | 63-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Cleveland State may be the worst team in the country and they take on South Carolina on Friday night. The Vikings are 1-2 with a 79-54 win over Edinboro to go with a 35 point loss at Minnesota and a 20 point loss at Missouri State. CSU's defense is one of the worst in the country as they are allowing 39.4% of the opponents misses to be offensively rebounded. South Carolina has the best effective FG% defense according to Ken Pomeroy. They have a 22 point home win over North Alabama and a 34 point home win over Wyoming on the docket. This is a mismatch and I think they get the easy win on Friday. |
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11-14-19 | Winthrop v. East Tennessee State OVER 148 | 58-61 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
East Tennessee State's offense is in incredible form right now. The Bucs are shooting 50% from long range and 69.4% from two point land. Granted, their two wins were 79-50 over Newberry and 92-75 over Tennessee Martin. This team wants to play with some pace and I've made money on their overs in the past. Jeremy Rodriguez are among the studs along with Lucas N'Guessan who is a very athletic seven footer. Winthrop is going to be happy to play with some pace finally. In their two wins on the road, they grinded out a 67-57 win at Hartford and a 61-59 victory at St. Mary's. Winthrop's one loss was at Fresno and it was played at a quicker pace in a 77-74 loss. It could be an issue for this team that they've been on the road all year long and it's their fourth game in a week. We'll see if it shows up, but I think the over is worth a look here. |
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11-14-19 | Vanderbilt v. Richmond OVER 141.5 | 92-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Vandy is 2-0 this season with a 83-65 win over SEMO and a 71-66 victory over Texas A&M Corpus Christi. So far under Jerry Stackhouse they are playing a little bit slower then we thought with average possessions around 18 seconds. Aaron Nesmith is one of their biggest stars with Saben Lee also being someone to watch for the Commodores. Richmond's tinkering with new defenses and they didn't exactly show much of it in a 100-98 overtime win over St. Francis of PA. The Spiders offense is going to be one of the best in the country but they allowed the Red Flashes to shoot 50% from long range and offensively rebound 36.6% of their shots. The one thing to watch here is the status of Grant Golden. Golden turned his ankle and is a game time decision. Richmond has gone over in 20 of their last 30 lined games and 24 of their last 36 when the total is in the 140s. I think this one is a bit higher scoring then the total says. |
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11-13-19 | CS Bakersfield +10 v. Northern Iowa | 55-67 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
The Roadrunners are 1-1 on the season with a win over Notre Dame de Namur and a 2OT loss to South Dakota State at home. UCSB wants to play at a slower pace and has averaged just under 21 seconds per possession so far this year. Rod Barnes is a fantastic coach and has done very good things with this team. De'Monte Buckingham comes over from Richmond and has been very good for this team. He's had at least 10 points and five rebounds in both games this season. On the other side you've got UNI who may actually be slower then UCSB with the 343rd adjusted tempo. They have a 58-53 win over ODU and a 64-54 victory over NIU on the docket. I realize there's a talent discrepancy in this one, but this potentially is an underdog getting five possessions in a contest that could see around 65 on each side. |
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11-13-19 | Miami-OH v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 151 | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
Fort Wayne overs are almost insta-bets for me as this team loves playing with pace and don't play defense very well. Miami-Ohio lost their opener 88-81 to Wright State at home in a game that saw 79 possessions. The Redhawks are led by Nike Sibande and Dalonte Brown as well as Bam Bowman. The lineup is also bolstered by Isaiah Coleman-Landis who played just five games last year. This team wants to run a bit and may be able to do whatever they want against the Dons. Fort Wayne is 1-2 with a 91-80 win over Manchester to go with a 86-71 loss to UNLV and a 79-78 defeat at the hands of SEMO. In each of those games they had at least 70 possessions. Traditionally, this team has been an over and we already hit the one in the SEMO game. Even without Jon Konchar, Jarred Godfrey, Matt Holba, Dylan Carl and Marcus DeBerry are not a bad group of weapons. |
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11-13-19 | North Carolina-Asheville v. Wake Forest OVER 142 | 79-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Mike Morrell has some talent finally in UNC Asheville as they take on Wake Forest. The Bulldogs lost 78-63 to Tennessee on the road in game one, but then went to The Citadel and picked up a 91-76 win. These guys were the youngest team in basketball last year, but also added Lavar Batts and Jax Levitch from some solid programs as well. Batts has yet to make the predicted impact for them as he's got just 13 points in 37 minutes played and he's had nine fouls as well. DeVon Baker and Tajion Jones are two of their better players as well. Wake Forest wants to play with some pace as well and they didn't do it last time out against Columbia winning 65-63. The Demon Deacons are taking just under 15 seconds a possession on offense. They lost to BC back in game one 77-70 on the road with both games going over 70 possessions. Andrien White has been a solid pickup this offseason to go along with Brandon Childress and Olivier Sarr. |
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11-13-19 | North Carolina-Asheville +14 v. Wake Forest | 79-98 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Mike Morrell has some talent finally in UNC Asheville as they take on Wake Forest. The Bulldogs lost 78-63 to Tennessee on the road in game one, but then went to The Citadel and picked up a 91-76 win. These guys were the youngest team in basketball last year, but also added Lavar Batts and Jax Levitch from some solid programs as well. Batts has yet to make the predicted impact for them as he's got just 13 points in 37 minutes played and he's had nine fouls as well. DeVon Baker and Tajion Jones are two of their better players as well. Wake Forest wants to play with some pace as well and they didn't do it last time out against Columbia winning 65-63. The Demon Deacons are taking just under 15 seconds a possession on offense. They lost to BC back in game one 77-70 on the road with both games going over 70 possessions. Andrien White has been a solid pickup this offseason to go along with Brandon Childress and Olivier Sarr. |
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11-12-19 | Auburn v. South Alabama OVER 145 | 70-69 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a rare opportunity for a program like South Alabama to get a power five school in their building. Last year the Tigers steamrolled the Jaguars 101-58 as 20.5 point favorites. South Alabama is 2-0 with an 82-51 win over Pikeville and a 75-69 win over Southern Miss. They lost 78-75 to Mississippi State in an exhibition game as well. This team wants to play with a little bit of pace and has played some good defense as well. I really like their roster with Josh Ajayi leading the way at 21.5 points and 10 rebounds per game. They've got three other double digit scorers and some depth as well. Auburn beat Georgia Southern 83-74 then knocked off Davidson 76-66 in a game that should have gone over but didn't. The Tigers roster hasn't been completely gutted from last year with Samir Doughty, Austin Wiley, J'Von McCormick and Danjel Purifoy among the contributors. Auburn has gone over in 18 of their last 29 when the total is in the 140s. I think this one is an over as well. |
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11-12-19 | North Texas +14.5 v. Arkansas | 43-66 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
North Texas gets the chance to get a win on Tuesday when they travel to Arkansas. The Mean Green beat Oklahoma Christian 79-40 and then lost 59-56 to VCU on the road in a game that saw them go down big but come back in the end. UNT has a ton of talent with Zachary Simmons and Umoja Gibson among the talented players. Also the Mean Green are one of the slowest teams in the country so they won't let this game get away from them necessarily. Arkansas has had a week off since beating Rice 91-43. Their roster is rather small and could struggle with a guy like Simmons. Still, Isaiah Joe, Mason Jones and Adrio Bailey are among the important guys here. UNT has covered 18 of their last 31 road contests and 13 of their last 21 as a road underdog. I think this is too many points. |
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11-12-19 | Evansville v. Kentucky OVER 137.5 | 67-64 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Walter McCarty brings Evansville to Kentucky for a game on Tuesday. The Purple Aces want to run and run and run as evidenced by their 79-75 win over Ball State last weekend. DeAndre Williams had 26 points and nine rebounds in the win with Sam Cunliffe chipping in 17. Last year in big games out of conference this team lost 99-60 at Illinois and 91-85 at Xavier. They certainly don't have the weapons to keep up with Kentucky. The Wildcats have a 69-62 win over Michigan State to go along with a 91-49 romp over Eastern Kentucky. UK averages 15.7 seconds per possession which is the same as how long they are on defense on average. The other intriguing factor is how will they play considering McCarty is Kentucky royalty and is on the other sideline. Will they pull off the gas a little bit towards the end? I'll take a shot that Evansville is able to score a little and UK does a lot of the heavy lifting on our way to an over. |
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11-11-19 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Vanderbilt OVER 134 | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt is 1-0 after their 83-65 win over SEMO last week. The Commodores were tied at halftime, but had a fantastic second half as they shot 49.2% from the court. They were led by Aaron Nesmith's 25 points and 21 off the bench from Saben Lee in 28 minutes. Jerry Stackhouse has this team playing a little quicker as they had an adjusted tempo of 71.6 possessions. Texas A&M Corpus Christi lost their first game 82-49 against Louisiana Tech. It was a really rough game for the Islanders who were led by Jashawn Talton-Thomas who is the younger brother of Rashawn Thomas who was a star there. They approached 70 possessions in the loss and that was at home. I don't think they'll be able to set their slower pace on the road. Vandy is still working out some of the kinks so I think it'll be a little closer and Corpus Christi will be able to help out. Give me the over. |
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11-10-19 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. SE Missouri State OVER 153 | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Fort Wayne has gone over in 22 of their last 33 as a favorite including 10 of their last 13 as a road favorite. The Mastodons have played two games already losing 86-71 at UNLV before beating Manchester 91-80. The common thread in both was a lack of defense by the Dons. This team lost Jon Konchar, but it could be argued that they have more balanced scoring. Jarred Godfrey leads Fort Wayne with 22 points per game and is one of four who are shooting 50% or better from the court. SEMO has played just one game this season losing 83-65 at Vanderbilt. Quatarrius Wilson came over from McNeese State and he had a double-double in the loss with 12 points and 13 rebounds. The Redhawks have gone over in 14 of their last 22 at home. I think this one should see plenty of points on Sunday. |
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11-10-19 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Illinois State OVER 137 | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Illinois State is coming off an emotional 79-72 home win over Belmont in which it was an underdog. The Redbirds shot almost 48% from the court and made half of their three point attempts. It could have been a bigger win if not for their struggles from the free throw line. Zach Copeland is the leading returning starter, but Taylor Bruninga has made an impact for them as well. He's a solid shooter who has size and offensive ability. On the other side you've got UALR who won at Missouri State 67-66 last time out. The Trojans shot really well in that one and played some solid defense on the Bears. Markquis Nowell and Nikola Maric are the two leading returning scorers. Both teams played a moderately paced first game. I think this one is going over the total. |
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11-10-19 | Colgate +8.5 v. Clemson | 68-81 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
It's hard to figure out Clemson as they enter this matchup against Colgate on Sunday. The Tigers lost 67-60 to Virginia Tech in game one as they couldn't handle Landers Nolley inside. Clemson bounced back to beat a bad Presbyterian team 79-45 last time as they got some confidence back. Still, this is an unsettled roster that is trying to figure out it's identity. They've got Aamir Simms inside and a couple of decent guards, but the depth isn't there and neither is the consistency. You can't say that for Colgate who is a finished product in terms of roster continuity. They bring back their top 5 scorers from last year and are coming off an 80-75 win over NJIT in game one. Rapolas Ivanauskas had 24 and eight in the win and he's going to be a problem considering the 6'10" player can shoot threes and go inside. Will Rayman is a double-double guy for them. Last year, this team played some teams tough on the road. I think they are worth a look in this spot. |
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11-09-19 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Bradley OVER 138 | 56-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Bradley's new look nearly paid off in Philly, but they fell short 86-81 to St. Joe's as a slight favorite. The Braves have talked about playing with a little more pace then they have in the past. This is a deeper team with several studs back from last year's team. The result was St. Joe picking them apart, but Bradley scoring over 80 points which I don't think they did a ton last year. IUPUI lost their first game 80-47 to Butler. They shot worse and allowed the Bulldogs to shoot almost 60% from the court. The Jaguars return three starters but had to change their coach in the offseason as Jason Gardner was let go. Last year this game was an 85-73 contest at IUPUI and it had a total of 134.5. I think Bradley will find it easier to get some offense going in this one and we sail over the total. |
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11-09-19 | Ball State v. Evansville OVER 144 | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Evansville will start their season on Saturday as they host Ball State who already has a game under their belt. The Purple Aces needed overtime in their lone exhibition to pick up a win 71-68. Walter McCarty lamented how disjointed they looked with a slower pace and poor shooting. McCarty wants to run and play faster. Last year the Purple Aces averaged around 70 possessions per game. Ball State played Evansville twice last year winning 82-72 at home, but losing 89-77 in the Ford Center. The Cardinals lone win came over Defiance of division three. KJ Walton, Tahjai Teague and Kyle Mallers led the way as the returnees from last year's squad. There will definitely be some sloppiness from the home team, but I think this one will be a higher scoring game on Saturday. |
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