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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-02-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma State OVER 58.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #373 |
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10-31-19 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -14.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) over Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #304 |
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10-26-19 | Washington State +14.5 v. Oregon | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington State Cougars (+) over Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #153 |
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10-26-19 | California +21.5 v. Utah | 0-35 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 22 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* California Golden Bears (+) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET: Game #141 |
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10-26-19 | Central Florida v. Temple +11 | 63-21 | Loss | -117 | 29 h 25 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (+) over UCF Knights, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #124 |
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10-26-19 | Penn State v. Michigan State +5.5 | 28-7 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Michigan State Spartans (+) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #162 |
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10-26-19 | Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169 |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston OVER 65.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #103 |
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10-19-19 | Colorado v. Washington State -12 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372 |
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10-19-19 | Rice -4.5 v. UTSA | 27-31 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Rice Owls (-) over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #415 |
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10-19-19 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | 41-43 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #397 |
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10-19-19 | LSU v. Mississippi State +18 | 36-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) over LSU Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #380 |
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10-19-19 | Tulsa +17.5 v. Cincinnati | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #339 |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #312 |
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10-17-19 | UCLA +3.5 v. Stanford | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* UCLA Bruins (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #307 |
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10-12-19 | Navy v. Tulsa | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Navy Midshipmen (-) over Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #123 |
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10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | 17-12 | Loss | -119 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #204 |
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10-12-19 | Army -4.5 v. Western Kentucky | 8-17 | Loss | -104 | 30 h 39 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Army Black Knights (-) over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #191 |
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10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128 |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -125 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Miami Hurricanes (-) over Virginia Cavaliers, Friday at 8 PM ET: Game #110 |
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10-10-19 | Syracuse v. NC State -4.5 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON NC State Wolfpack (-) over Syracuse Orange, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #108 |
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10-05-19 | Washington v. Stanford +15.5 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 13 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Stanford Cardinal (+) over Washington Huskies, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #352 |
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10-05-19 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -7 | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #376 |
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10-05-19 | Western Kentucky -3 v. Old Dominion | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) over Old Dominion Monarchs, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #383 |
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10-05-19 | TCU v. Iowa State -3 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa State Cyclones (-) over TCU Horned Frogs, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #374 |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356 |
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10-04-19 | New Mexico v. San Jose State OVER 66.5 | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New Mexico Lobos at San Jose State Spartans, Friday at 10 PM ET: Game #309 |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195 |
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09-28-19 | SMU v. South Florida +8 | 48-21 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 6 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* South Florida Bulls (+) over SMU Mustangs, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #122 |
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09-28-19 | Iowa State v. Baylor +3 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #130 |
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09-28-19 | BYU -2.5 v. Toledo | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 10 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* BYU Cougars (-) over Toledo Rcokets, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #131 |
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09-27-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105 |
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09-21-19 | Utah State -4 v. San Diego State | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 48 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah State Aggies (-) over San Diego State Aztecs, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #399 |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349 |
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09-21-19 | Michigan v. Wisconsin UNDER 45 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER: Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #344 |
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09-20-19 | Utah -3.5 v. USC | 23-30 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah Utes (-) over USC Trojans, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #305 |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane OVER 57.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave, Thursday at 8 ET: Game #303 |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191 |
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09-14-19 | USC v. BYU UNDER 56.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 39 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Under – USC Trojans @ BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #144 |
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09-14-19 | Air Force +4 v. Colorado | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 13 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Air Force Falcons (+) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET: Game #125 |
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09-14-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana OVER 59 | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 43 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER – Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #109 |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston OVER 73.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Washington State Cougars at Houston Cougars, Friday at 9:15 ET: Game #107 |
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09-07-19 | BYU v. Tennessee -3 | 29-26 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 45 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tennessee Volunteers (-) over Brigham Young Cougars, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #358 |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331 |
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09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #314 |
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09-07-19 | Cincinnati v. Ohio State OVER 53.5 | Top | 0-42 | Loss | -108 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #321 |
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09-06-19 | Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Boise State Broncos, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #303 |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 54.5 | 35-17 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Louisville Cardinals, Monday at 8:00 ET: Game #217 |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -22.5 | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over Houston Cougars, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #216 |
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08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203 |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -4.5 | 36-31 | Loss | -103 | 67 h 22 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Florida State Seminoles (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #192 |
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08-30-19 | Rice v. Army -21.5 | 7-14 | Loss | -103 | 56 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Army Black Knights (-) over Rice Owls, Friday at 6 PM ET: Game #146 |
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08-29-19 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 48 | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* UNDER: Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars, Thursday at 10:15 ET: Game #144 |
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08-24-19 | Arizona v. Hawaii +11 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 23 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Hawaii Warriors (+) over Arizona Wildcats, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #294 |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 38 h 52 m | Show |
ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here. |
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER – Ohio State vs Washington, Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET - ROSE BOWL - Prior to their low-scoring win over the Utes in the PAC-12 Championship Game, the Huskies had scored at least 27 points in 8 of their 9 previous games. This included bad weather games too. As for this one, conditions should be ideal in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl Tuesday afternoon (2 pm local time). Santa Ana winds in Southern Cal are impacting New Year's Eve but will have subsided through the morning hours on New Years Day. Winds are expected to be near 10 miles per hour at kickoff with clear skies and temperatures near 60 degrees. With ideal weather, Washington should have no trouble putting up at least 27 points again here. Look for QB Jake Browning and the Huskies to take advantage of a Buckeyes defense that allowed an average of 266 passing yards per game their last 9 games of the season. In fact, looking at Ohio's State's last 6 games they only had one truly impressive defensive performance (versus Michigan State). In the Buckeyes other 5 games dating back to mid-October they allowed an average of 38.8 points per game. That includes 6 overtime points allowed in the Maryland game but even adjusting for that the Buckeyes allowed an average of 37.6 points in those 5 games. You can see why we're expecting plenty of points here as the Ohio State defense struggled as the season went on but, of course, they have an extremely potent offense! Another way to look at it is this way: With the total set at 57.5 and Ohio State -6.5 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 32-25 range. We like Buckeyes to score more than 32 and the Huskies to score more than 25. Washington State's last 3 games played with 2 or more weeks of rest between games have gone 3-0 to the OVER. In terms of additional technical support, the Huskies are also 3-0 to the over when they are a neutral field dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Ohio State is 6-2 to the over this season when off a win over a Big Ten foe. The Buckeyes big win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship wrapped up a season-ending 3-game run that saw Ohio State score an average of 53 points per game (50.7 ppg adjusting out the 7 points in the OT win versus the Terrapins). Considering all of the above, this should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here. |
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01-01-19 | LSU -7 v. Central Florida | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON LSU (-) over UCF, Tuesday at 1 PM ET - There is a lot of focus on defensive personnel that are out for this game for LSU. So much focus in fact that many are forgetting about the most important injury situation relating to this game. That of course is the fact that UCF star QB McKenzie Milton is out with that devastating knee injury he suffered in November. The Tigers have played a much tougher schedule than the Knights have this season. Additionally, the few times when Central Florida has stepped up in level of opposition, they have not been overly impressive. The four toughest match-ups that UCF had were facing Memphis twice, Cincinnati once, and Temple once. Note that the Owls put up 670 yards on the Knights! That is the same Temple team that got smoked in the bowls by Duke. As for the win over the Bearcats, the scoreboard showed a 25 point edge but note that UCF only won the yardage battle by 23 yards! Certainly a bit of a phony final and the two games against Memphis saw the Knights have to rally in BOTH games. UCF rallied to beat the Tigers by 1 point in October. Then, in the AAC Championship game, the final score makes it look like the Knights dominated but Central Florida was down huge at the half and the game was still a 1-point game with under 7 minutes to go in the contest. Keep in mind that was against a Memphis team that, like Temple, also lost their bowl game and the Tigers were out-gained by 151 yards by Wake Forest in that bowl defeat. The point is that LSU is, by far, a tougher opponent than UCF has faced all year and this would be true even if the ENTIRE Tigers defense was made up of their 2nd stringers! LSU comes from the powerful SEC of course and the Tigers only losses came against Florida (blasted Michigan in bowl game), Alabama (blasted Oklahoma in CFB Playoff semi-final), and Texas A & M (an epic game decided in 7 overtimes). In our opinion, the Knights (with a back-up) quarterback will struggle to hang around in this game and by the second half the Tigers will wear them down and eventually win this one by a margin of at least two touchdowns. What is the motivation for LSU? UCF is 12-0 on the season. They won't be undefeated after the Tigers are done with them. LSU is the play. |
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12-31-18 | Northwestern +7 v. Utah | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Northwestern (+) over Utah, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Utes are expected to have QB Tyler Huntley (broken collarbone) back for this game but there is certain to be some rust as he has not seen game action since November 3rd. Utah has been held to 147 passing yards or less in 3 of their last 5 games and that is a key concern here because their running game has not been the same since losing running back Zach Moss for the season with an ankle injury. The Utes averaged only 3.4 yards per carry in their last 3 games. Northwestern wrapped up the season with strong running as they totaled over 400 yards in their final two games and averaged 5.9 yards per carry! The Wildcats defense had a poor game versus Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. However, Northwestern entered that game having allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their 6 prior games! Utah lost 10-3 in the PAC-12 Championship and the Utes entered that game having allowed 25 points or more in 4 of their 6 prior games. You can see why we like having the TD underdog here when you see how these teams have performed in the latter half of the season. Speaking of underdog value, if you had played the underdog in all 12 of Northwestern's regular season games (prior to Big Ten Championship) you would not have lost a single bet as the dog was 11-0-1 ATS in the Wildcats dozen regular season games. Northwestern's outright upset wins included defeating Wisconsin and winning at Iowa and at Michigan State this season. We are forecasting another upset here and will gladly grab the points being offered. Northwestern is the play. |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Oregon | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Michigan State (+) over Oregon, Monday at 3:00 PM ET - We really like the defensive and coaching advantage in this game. MSU head man Mark Dantonio is a very good coach and with extra time to prepare he has been money. The Spartans are 5-1 both SU & ATS their last 6 bowl games with their only loss & non-cover coming against Alabama. Oregon’s Mario Cristobal is in his 2nd season in Eugene and while he is a very good recruiter, we’re not wild about him as a head coach. He had only 2 winning seasons (8-5 & 7-6) in his 6 seasons as head coach @ Florida International from 2007 to 2012. His two bowl appearances with FIU were not very impressive as the slipped by Toledo 34-32 as a 2-point favorite and the Rockets outgained FIU by 130 yards in that game (FIU had 89 yard kick return for TD by now Indy WR TY Hilton). The following year Cristobal took FIU to another bowl and lost by 10 to Marshall as a 4-point favorite. Last year, his first with Oregon, the Ducks went into their bowl game vs Boise as a 7-point favorite and lost by 10. Cristobal, unlike Dantonio, has not shown the ability to have his team ready for bowl games losing in 2 of his 3 post-season appearances as a favorite. MSU defensively has been great this year. They rank #1 nationally vs the rush allowing just 81 YPG on 2.7 YPC. The Ducks rely very heavily on the run averaging 41 carries per game (35th nationally in rushing attempts per game). Using a successful running game to set up QB Justin Herbert and the passing game probably won’t be an option here for the Ducks. MSU should keep them one dimensional. The Spartan offense definitely had their problems this season. However, injuries had a lot to do with that. QB Brian Lewerke had a shoulder injury down the stretch and was not anywhere near 100% as he split time with Rocky Lombardi. Lewerke has had time to rest his shoulder and it’s much better than it has been as he gets the start here. Starting RB LJ Scott was injured much of the season and he is healthy for this game. Sparty has had a month off to tweak their offense and now with some key contributors back, we expect them to play much better. They are facing an Oregon defense that allowed 31 PPG vs the 6 bowl teams they faced this year. By comparison, the MSU defense allowed 21 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this year. Sparty played the much tougher schedule this year facing the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and even a very good Utah State team in the non-conference slate. The Pac 12 was down again this year and they continue to flame out in bowl games. This year the Pac 12 is already 1-2 SU in bowls but 0-3 ATS. The conference is now 2-14 ATS their last 16 bowl appearances. The Pac 12 is just 2-10 SU their last 12 bowl games dating back to last season. We like Michigan State to take this game outright. |
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12-29-18 | Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 76.5 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
#253/254 ASA 10* CFB PLAY ON OVER – Alabama vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - ORANGE BOWL - Oklahoma ranks 102nd in total defense so this will be the 3rd worst defense Bama has faced this season. The two teams they played that are ranked lower in total defense were Ole Miss (116th) and Louisville (126th) and the Tide put up 62 & 51 points in those 2 games. As we go a bit further, Bama played a total of 4 teams this year ranked 75th or worse in total defense and they scored 65, 62, 57, and 51 points in those 4 games. We expect Alabama to put up similar numbers on Saturday vs a terrible Sooner defense that gave up big points to nearly everyone on their schedule. They allowed at least 33 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and allowed 40+ in 5 of those games. That includes a bad Kansas offense who scored 40 on this defense. The Okie defense will now face the BEST offense they’ve taken on this season as Bama ranks 2nd nationally in YPP putting up 7.6. Who ranks first in YPP offense? Oklahoma at 8.6 YPP. So while we expect Bama to run up huge numbers here, the Sooners will get theirs as well. The Tide have impressive defensive numbers but they haven’t faced an offense like this OU unit. The best offense Bama has faced in Georgia and they average a full 100 less per game than Oklahoma. Georgia scored 28 points and put up 450 yards on Bama. We think Oklahoma tops both of those numbers which should put this one over rather easily despite the high number. Look at it this way, with the total set at 77 and Bama -14 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 45-31 range. We like Bama to score more than 45 and Oklahoma to score more than 31. These two have combined to play 26 games this year and they are 19-6-1 to the OVER. This should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here. |
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12-29-18 | Arkansas State v. Nevada OVER 56 | 13-16 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
#245/246 ASA 9* CFB OVER – Arkansas State vs Nevada, Saturday at 1:15 PM ET – ARIZONA BOWL - Both of these defenses played pretty well down the stretch which is possibly why this total is sitting lower than it should be in our opinion. Our numbers had this total sitting at 60 so the value is on the OVER in our opinion. Arkansas State won 4 straight to end the season allowing 14, 16, 17, and 7 points. None of those teams made it to a bowl game and they ranked 120th, 106th, 84th, and 56th in total offense. Against the 4 bowl teams they faced this year the Red Wolves allowed 57, 47, 35, and 28 points. Nevada’s defense was in the same boat. In their final 4 games they allowed 34, 12, 10, and 24 points their last 4 games. The 34 points they allowed was to a UNLV team that ranks 75th in total offense so not an impressive defensive effort. The other 3 games Nevada faced offenses ranked 122nd , 112th, and 60th. Similar to Arkansas State, when the Nevada defense faced a bowl team, it was a much different story. The Wolfpack allowed 63, 41, 31, 24, and 21 vs bowl teams. Both offenses are potent averaging over 6.2 yards per play. They are also both very balanced with each averaging over 35+ pass attempts per game and 32+ rush attempts per game. Arkansas State ranks 20th nationally in total offense and Nevada ranks 34th. They both average over 30 PPG and both teams average over 2 plays run per minute which puts them in the top third of the NCAA in tempo. Both QB’s are veterans capable of putting up big numbers. Arkansas State signal caller Justice Hansen is a 4-year starter that has thrown for over 13,000 career yards and 110 TD’s. Nevada QB Ty Gangi is a 2.5-year starter that has thrown for over 7,000 yards and 56 TD’s. The weather at game time in Tucson will be a bit cool in the upper 40’s but light wind and no precipitation. Ideal conditions. We expect both of these teams to push into the 30’s and we’ll take the OVER. |
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12-28-18 | Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play. |
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12-28-18 | Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 | 63-14 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 20 m | Show | |
#242 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Purdue (+) over Auburn, Friday at 1:30 PM ET – MUSIC CITY BOWL - We know Purdue is thrilled to be here. They will be well prepared and very motivated to take on their SEC foe. Head coach Jeff Brohm, who is very well liked by the players, gave this team an extra boost by turning down the Louisville job (Brohm’s alma mater) after the season to stay with the Boilers. Positive energy abounds around this program and we expect them to play very well on Friday. Auburn? Maybe not so much. The Tigers had much higher aspirations this year but struggled to get to a 7-5 record. They were in the Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl the last 2 seasons and now they are relegated to the Music City Bowl. Their coach Gus Malzahn is just 1-4 SU in bowl games as this team often underachieves in the post-season. On top of that, Malzahn was on the hot seat for much of the season but will now remain as head coach which we’re not sure is a great thing. His offensive coordinator has already left for the same position under Les Miles at Kansas. Their starting QB Jarrett Stidham will play but has already declared for the draft so we’re not sure he’ll be 100% focused on this one. Since the opening weekend when the Tigers slipped by Washington 21-16, this team has beaten a grand total of ONE team that was bowl eligible. That was a 28-24 win over Texas A&M, a game Auburn was outgained by 123 yards AND trailed 24-14 with less than 6:00 remaining in the game. This team was outgained in every SEC game but two this year (outgained Ole Miss by 50 & Tennessee by 37). Purdue has great momentum after starting the season 0-3 and fighting their way back and into a bowl game. Four of their six losses came by 4 points or less and only once this season were they beaten badly and the game was out of reach. Unlike Malzahn, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm has been a very good bowl coach with a perfect 3-0 SU record in his time at Western Kentucky & Purdue. They have impressive wins this year over bowlers Ohio State, Iowa, and Boston College. While the Boilers have hung around in the same neighborhood stat’s wise vs other bowl teams getting outgained by just 10 YPG, the Tigers have been dominated by other good teams getting outgained by 123 YPG vs other bowl teams. We’ll take the rising team as a dog over the team that is likely to go through the motions here. |
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12-27-18 | Duke +3.5 v. Temple | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
#235 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Duke (+) over Temple, Thursday at 1:30 PM ET – INDEPENDENCE BOWL We feel the coaching mismatch in this game is fairly significant. Duke’s head man David Cutcliffe is a veteran whose been at Duke for 11 years & was the head coach at Ole Miss prior to that. His teams at both schools have performed very well in bowl games with an 9-2 ATS record. He prepares them well with the extra time off and that shows in his 82% ATS bowl mark. His counterpart on Thursday will be interim coach Ed Foley as Temple head coach Geoff Collins has moved on to take the job at Georgia Tech. Foley was the interim coach for Temple in their bowl game 2 years ago and they lost by 8 points to Wake Forest as a 12 point favorite. Temple’s main assistant coaches have remained in place which helps but many will be looking for new jobs (or have been already) as Miami DC Manny Diaz takes over starting on Friday. That has to cause some distraction for this team. We love this situation for the Devils as well. They were absolutely embarrassed in their season finale losing 59-7 to Wake Forest. Not only that, Duke was favored by 9 in that game! It was a bad spot for Duke as they were coming off Clemson a week earlier and took and up and coming Wake team for granted (Wake already beat Memphis in their bowl game). It was Cutcliffe’s worst loss of his career and you can bet his team wants redemption for that terrible and effortless performance. Temple, on the other hand, hasn’t been challenged in a month and a half when they beat Houston on November 11th. They were double digit favorites in their final two games vs USF and UConn and won those games by 10 & 50 points. The Owl defense has impressive numbers, however they did have problems with mobile QB’s allowing Houston to put up 49, Boston College 45, UCF 52, and Buffalo 36 points. Duke’s QB Daniel Jones falls into that category so we expect the Devils to have a solid offensive performance here. The Blue Devils have played the MUCH tougher schedule facing off against 10 teams that made their way into bowl games. They were 5-5 in those games including wins over Army (who blew out Houston in their bowl game), Miami FL, Northwestern (who won the Big Ten West), Georgia Tech, and Baylor. Meanwhile, in the much weaker AAC, Temple faced 6 bowl bound teams and finished with a 3-3 mark with wins over Houston (who was blown out by Army in their bowl game), USF (who was WAY down this season and blown out at home in their bowl game by Marshall), and Cincy in OT. We think Duke has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points. |
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Georgia Tech (-) over Minnesota, Wednesday at 5:15 PM ET This is the Gophers first bowl appearance since PJ Fleck took over as head coach so they might be in “just happy to be here” mode. They already won their biggest game of the year upsetting Wisconsin (Badgers had 4 turnover to 0 for Minnesota) on the road in the season finale taking home Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the first time in 14 yards AND becoming bowl eligible in the process. Going into Wisconsin as a double digit underdog, we’re not sure they even expected to be playing in the post-season. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, will be highly motivated to get this win. Their long time head coach Paul Johnson has informed his team that he will retire after this one. From what we have been told, Johnson is well liked by his players and they REALLY want to win this game for him. “I’m going to try to have my best game, and we’re going to try to send coach Johnson out the right way, with a win,” linebacker and captain Brant Mitchell said. “I think that’s the mindset of everybody on this team.” The Jackets offensive strength plays right into Minnesota’s defensive weakness. Tech leads the nation in rushing at 335 YPG on 5.7 YPC while Minnesota allows 170 YPG on the ground in 5.2 YPC. They had some solid defensive performances vs the rush against lower tier rushing teams. However, against the top running games in the Big Ten they struggled allowing Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland to all rush for over 300 yards. Against Wisconsin to end the season, Minny jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead due to turnovers and special teams (punt return TD for Gophs) taking the Badgers out of their gameplan. Even with that Wisconsin rushed for 170 yards on 5.5 YPC. The Gophs will also be without their top defensive player and leading tackler LB Blake Cashman along with starting OT Donnell Greene who are both sitting out this game to get ready for the NFL draft. On top of that, head coach PJ Fleck suspended a few other players but he isn’t divulging who they are so we’ll all find out at game time. Either way, not a great sign for Minnesota and their mental readiness for this game. They are also the youngest team in the nation with over 50% of their roster being freshmen so it will be the first bowl game ever for many on this team. Because they were young, the Gophers struggled on the road with their only win coming @ Wisconsin in a game they were actually outgained. Their other games away from home ended in losses by margins of 29, 25, 24, and 16 points. Ga Tech has won 6 of 8 game entering this one but did lose in their season ender to in-state rival Georgia. Johnson has led his team to wins in 3 of their last 4 bowls games and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. We have a feeling the young Minnesota defense gets worn down in this game and Tech pulls away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Georgia Tech is the play. |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +1 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one. |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army -5 | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
#224 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Army (-) over Houston, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – ARMED FORCES BOWL - We’re not so sure what Houston’s mind set will be entering this game. They had higher aspirations coming into the season but are stuck in the Armed Forces Bowl. Their top player, DT Oliver, is sitting this game out to get ready for the NFL draft. Their starting QB D’Eriq King, who passed for 3000 yards and 36 TD’s along with nearly 700 yards rushing, hurt his knee in the Cougars 2nd to last game of the season and is out. His back up is a true freshman who was 18 of 43 passing in their season ending blowout loss at the hands of Memphis. They will also be without one of the top offensive playmakers, WR & kick returner Bryson Smith. On top of that, head coach Major Applewhite fired his defensive coordinator at the end of the season. This team seems to done with this season and looking ahead to next year. We know that isn’t the case with Army. One thing we know about the service academies is they will show up and play hard in their bowl games (16-8 ATS in bowl games since 2003). Army was easily the best of the academies this year with a 10-2 record. Let’s not forget one of the losses was 28-21 @ Oklahoma in overtime and the Cadets outgained the Sooners! It was easily the lowest point total for the Sooners this season (21 in regulation) as they topped 40 in every game but two (37 vs Iowa State was the other). That speaks volumes on how good this Army defense is. They ended the season ranked in the top 20 nationally in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, AND scoring defense. Houston, on the other hand, struggled to top the run this year allowing just under 200 YPG. And that was WITH All American DT Ed Oliver in the line up and as we stated he is sitting this one out. The Cougs beat Navy this year as the Middies were way down, however they allowed 344 yards rushing in that one. They’ll have big problems again here stopping an Army running attack that ranks #2 nationally averaging 297 YPG. We like Army to win by at least a TD in this one so we’ll lay the points. |
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12-21-18 | Florida International +7 v. Toledo | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
#217 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Florida International (+) over Toledo, Friday at 12:30 PM ET NOTE - FRIDAY AFTERNOON GAME - Windy conditions expected in the Bahamas Bowl and this absolutely will negate some of the impact of Florida International QB James Morgan being downgraded to "out" for this game. They are expecting 25 to 35 MPH winds in Nassau on Friday which has dropped this total from 67 to 56! We’re not on the total but interesting to note the affect the strong winds will have on this game. The running game will now become more important of this game and FIU back up QB Christian Alexander, a junior is actually the much better runner in comparison with Morgan. Alexander hasn't seen a ton of action this season but he did complete 19 of 29 passes for 218 yards plus he ran for 98 yards on 14 carries for an average of 7 yards per carry. Morgan is a graduate transfer from Bowling Green and his insight into Toledo (both are MAC schools) is also a bonus in this game as he'll pass along plenty in game planning as he helps Alexander with this rare start. Though this will be an unexpected start for Alexander, he did see action in 8 of the Panthers 12 games this season. The Rockets have the more impressive numbers in terms of production on offense but they are also playing with their back up QB Eli Peters who stepped in the final 4 games for injured starter Mitchell Guadagni. Defensively FIU has a solid edge in our opinion. FIU has allowed 386 YPG on the season while Toledo has been rolled for 430 YPG. In road games this season, the Panthers have allowed just 22 points per game. As for Toledo, away from home this season the Rockets have allowed 34.6 points per game! The Rockets allowed only 13 points in their most recent game but that was at home vs Central Michigan who ranks 2nd to last nationally in total offense. Prior to that one, Toledo allowed 31 points or more in 7 of their previous 10 games since the season opener. With FIU's 28-25 loss to Marshall, the Panthers have now allowed 28 points or less in 8 of their last 11 games. Florida International is 9-2-1 ATS in their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season & 12-4-1 ATS in that role going back a few seasons. FIU’s Butch Davis is a veteran coach and gets the edge over Toledo’s Jason Candle who is in his 2nd year with the Rockets and this is his only head coaching experience. Davis took over a bad FIU program last year and turned them from a 4-8 team into an 8-5 team in one season. This year they sit at 8-4 looking for their first 9 win season ever. The venue also benefits FIU as they are a short hour flight from the Bahamas and definitely used the the warm, humid weather (supposed to be 80 degrees on Friday). The Toledo players may look at this as more of a vacation making the long trip from the cold Ohio weather. Grab the generous points! |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois +2 v. UAB | 13-37 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
ASA 9* Northern Illinois (+) over UAB, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET – BOCA RATON BOWL - UAB comes into this game with the better record at 10-3 compared to Northern Illinois who is 8-5. However the Huskies have played the MUCH tougher schedule and it’s not even close. Only 9 teams in all of college football have had an easier schedule this year than UAB. The only decent non-conference game the Blazers played was vs Texas A&M and they lost that one 41-20. That game was also late in the season in the middle of the SEC season for A&M. The Aggies were in a perfect letdown spot coming off Ole Miss with LSU on deck and still dominated the game. Conference USA was not a strong league this year and that has shown true in the bowl games thus far. The two CUSA teams that have played thus far are Middle Tennessee State and North Texas and both were blown out despite facing teams that just lost their head coaches (App State & Utah State). UAB was 2-1 this year against those 2 teams but were outgained in all 3 games and their two wins were by 2 & 8 points. One of those wins was by 2-points over MTSU in the CUSA Championship game. NIU challenged themselves to say the least in the non-conference season as they faced Utah, BYU, Iowa, and Florida State! They struggled offensively in those games, which is understandable, but it also makes their overall stats for the season a bit misleading. Down the stretch this offense played quite well scoring 38, 36, and 30 points in 3 of their last 5 games. That includes an impressive come from behind 30-29 win over a very good Buffalo team in the MAC Championship game. Over their final 5 games, 3 vs bowl teams, the Huskies averaged nearly 400 YPG on offense. The defense is among the best in the nation allowing just 347 YPG on 4.6 PPG despite the tough schedule. We rated these defenses almost dead even. While UAB has better stats offensively, we rate them very close as well because of the strength of schedule difference. This game should be a pick-em on our opinion so we’re getting value with Northern Illinois here. UAB is a popular play here with over 70% of the overall spread tickets on the Blazers. That’s fine with us. That’s because since 2005, when a team gets more than 70% of the spread bets they are just 27-44-1 ATS (just 38%). Take Northern Illinois tonight. |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 54 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
ASA 9* Play ON: Under - Fresno State vs Arizona State in Las Vegas Bowl, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Coming into this match-up no one could really argue with the fact that the Sun Devils have a strong offense. However, the loss of wide receiver N'Keal Harry for this game (he opted to sit out the bowl) is a significant absence for ASU. Harry was Arizona State's leading receiver by far and is essentially like losing 1 TD and 100 receiving yards from your offense. He was far and away the leader of this receiving group. Considering that factor as well as the fact that Fresno State has allowed just 13.7 points per game and you can see why the under is offering some solid line value here. This total was creeping toward the mid-fifties and the Bulldogs actually hold the nation's longest streak (by far) of holding teams to 30 points or less. It is a 24-game streak! With Fresno State allowing only about 14 points per game this game, this bowl match-up reaching only into the 30s or 40s seems quite logical even with beautiful weather expected in Vegas Saturday. The Bulldogs defense ranks among the best in the nation in terms of creating takeaways. The Sun Devils defense has been a bend but don't break defense this season. The ASU yardage allowed stats sometimes do not impress and yet this is a team that held 9 of its first 10 opponents to 28 points or less. Also, in non-conference games this season Arizona State allowed an average of only 16 points per game. The Bulldogs have some impressive numbers on offense this season but those stats were inflated by games against bad defenses - the likes of Hawaii, UNLV, and New Mexico. Those opponents were 3 of Fresno State's 9 foes since October 1st. In their other 6 games these past two and a half months, the Bulldogs offense averaged only 23 points per game! Certainly not impressive and that included a game against a bad San Jose State team too! Per the above you can see why the forecast here is that this one should be a tight battle featuring some solid play on the defensive side of the ball and we’re on the UNDER. |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
ASA 9* Play ON North Texas (+) over Utah State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - There is a strong probability that Utah State won't be completely focused nor fully prepared for this one. Their head coach, Matt Wells, left to take the head coaching job at Texas Tech and now the Aggies are being led by a co-defensive coordinator (Frank Maile) in this one. Also favoring North Texas in this match-up is that teams with bad ATS records (33% or less) have historically been good bets in bowl games. Those teams have gone 35-23-1 (60%) against the spread since 2005. North Texas fits within this criteria, as the Mean Green finished the regular season 4-8 ATS (33%). Even though UNT finished with a sub-par ATS record it could also be considered a bit of a statistical anomaly as the Mean Green actually won the yardage battle in all 12 of their games this season! In fact, on the season, North Texas averaged more than 100 yards per game than their foes. The Mean Green are solid defensively and allowing only 359.5 yards per game on the season. North Texas is on a 10-4 ATS run in non-conference action. Also, while UNT did win their final game of the regular season, Utah State suffered a momentum-killing (and very frustrating loss) at Boise State. That is worth taking note of because the Aggies are 3-8 SU (and ATS) when off a loss in conference action. Suffering that letdown against the Broncos and also dealing with the departure of their head coach, this is a tough spot for Utah State to be laying significant points. Against teams with a winning record, Utah State is on a 3-8 ATS (and 2-9 SU) run! Utah State's pass defense is likely to be exploited here as they closed out the season by allowing at least 307 passing yards in each of their four November games. We expect a rather tight game here and with North Texas having the program continuity edge - Utah State certainly dealing with distractions - we give the Mean Green a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-01-18 | Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida | 41-56 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
#309 ASA 9* PLAY ON Memphis (+) over UCF, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET This is a revenger for the Tigers who faced off against UCF at home on October 13th and lost 31-30. Memphis led that game 30-17 at half and were held scoreless in the 2nd half in the 1-point loss. Not only that, Memphis lost twice last year to UCF including a 62-55 setback in OT in the AAC Championship game. The Tigers led that game at half as well and took a 7-point lead in the first OT only to lose in the 2nd OT. Memphis was hoping for this rematch and they get it. The one big difference is UCF QB and leader McKenzie Milton will not be playing in this game after a season ending injury last week vs USF. That’s simply too big of a loss to overcome for the Knights. To put his loss in perspective, Milton accounted for 1,200 total yards and 11 TD’s in those 3 games vs Memphis we discussed above. Even with that, the Tigers went to the wire with a chance to win in the most recent 2 match ups. Milton’s replacement is freshman Darriel Mack Jr who has very little experience. He started one game this year with Milton out and UCF topped a bad ECU team and Mack threw for just 69 yards. The Knights were actually outgained in that game by an ECU team that has just 3 wins on the season. For the season, Mack has attempted just 43 passes and completed less than 50% of those throws (just 4 yards per pass attempt). That should allow the Memphis defense to focus mainly on stopping the run which they’ve been solid at this year (3.9 YPC allowed). The Tigers have proven they can score a move the ball against a UCF defense that is the weak point of their team allowing over 400 YPG. UCF, with Mack now at QB, has not proven they can do the same. We’ll take the points here and call for Memphis to pull the upset which is not really an upset in our mind. |
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12-01-18 | Stanford v. California +3.5 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday. |
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12-01-18 | Marshall +4 v. Virginia Tech | 20-41 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
#329 ASA 9* PLAY ON Marshall (+) over Virginia Tech, Saturday at Noon ET - The common thinking here will be to back the team the team that needs this game for bowl eligibility and plays in the tougher conference. However, Virginia Tech is off a rivalry game win over Virginia. Not only could that leave the Hokies running a little low on "fuel" here - both physically and mentally - that was also just the 2nd win for Virginia Tech in their past 7 games. Both wins have come by just 3 points. The Hokies are allowing 205 rushing yards per game this season while the Thundering Herd rush defense is surrendering only 100 yards per game. Also, Virginia Tech QB Willis has struggled in his last two games and has thrown 4 picks against just 2 TD's plus he has completed less than 50% of his passes. The Thundering Herd have been enjoying a resurgence since QB Green returned. He has thrown 6 TDs against 3 TDs in recent games while also completing close to 60% of his passes. Marshall is on a 12-3 ATS run as an underdog while Virginia Tech is on an overall 1-6 ATS run entering this one. The injury report for this game also shows that the Hokies are in much worse shape than the Thundering Herd in that department as well. Grab the points with the undervalued road dog in this non-conference match-up going very early Saturday. |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3.5 | 30-29 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
#304 ASA 9* PLAY ON Buffalo (-) over Northern Illinois, Friday at 7 PM ET - The Huskies are stumbling into the MAC Championship Game as Northern Illinois is off back to back losses. The Bulls, on the other hand, are 7-1 (SU and ATS) in their 8 MAC games this season and are very hungry to finally erase their history of struggles against the Huskies. Undoubtedly, Buffalo is favored over Northern Illinois here with good reason! Much is made of the Huskies strong defense but the Bulls defensive stats in terms of overall yardage allowed are equal to that of Northern Illinois. Also, Buffalo has the much more dangerous offense and is averaging 15 points more (and 101 yards more) per game in comparison with the Huskies. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois is 0-4 (SU and ATS) as a neutral field underdog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Grab the Bulls and lay the small points. Buffalo rolls in the MAC Championship Game early Friday evening. |
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11-24-18 | Arizona State v. Arizona +1.5 | 41-40 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
#234 ASA 9* play on Arizona (+) over Arizona State, 3:30 PM ET - The home team has won each of the last five meetings between Arizona and Arizona State. The Wildcats are seeking revenge here as they lost last year when the Sun Devils came back from being down by double digits to win by a dozen points on their home field. Look for home field to again be a key factor in this season's match-up. Both teams are off losses last week but there is a key scheduling edge here the way we see it. That's because, although both teams played in the Pacific Northwest last week (ASU in Eugene, Oregon against Ducks and Wildcats in Pullman, WA against the Cougars), Arizona just enjoyed the benefits of a bye two weeks ago. As for Arizona State, their bye was quite some time back and this is their sixth straight week of action. Also, for the Sun Devils, this is their third road game in the past five weeks. Another factor here is that Arizona State already has their 6th win but Arizona still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Arizona State is 2-4 ATS (and 0-6 SU!) in road games with a total set between 63.5 and 70 points. That system fits here and, base on the line here, that 0-6 SU run is certainly worth noting. Arizona is already 3-0 ATS this season when off a loss against a conference foe and the Wildcats are set up well to add another W to that record. In home games with a total set between 63.5 and 70 points, Arizona has a record of 17-6 SU the last 23. We won’t be surprised when the Wildcats win this game in a blowout at home. Bet Arizona! |
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11-24-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will. |
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11-24-18 | Purdue v. Indiana OVER 64.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
#211/212 ASA 9* PLAY ON Over – Purdue @ Indiana, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - The weather looks decent here with slight chance of rain but 10 MPH winds which is the more important factor. We think both these offenses will have a field day in this one. Purdue has scored 38 or more in 5 of their last 7 games. They face an IU defense that has given up at least 31 points in 6 straight. Indiana had scored 28+ in 3 straight entering last week’s game @ Michigan and then put up more yardage on the Wolverines than anyone has all season along with 21 points. These are the two worst pass defenses in the Big Ten so we expect a lot of balls in the air, stopping the clock more often, and opening up the potential of big plays in the passing game. QB’s Peyton Ramsey (IU) & David Blough (Purdue) are ranked 2nd and 3rd in the Big Ten in passing yards per game so they should have a field day in this one. We like both teams to get to 30+ here and we’ll take the OVER. |
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11-23-18 | Washington +3 v. Washington State | 28-15 | Win | 100 | 35 h 13 m | Show | |
#143 ASA 9* PLAY ON Washington (+) over Washington State, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Huskies have dominated this series with 4 straight wins both SU and ATS. This is a big rivalry game and this year's carries some extra meaning for certain. Not only are these teams battling it out at the top of the Pac-12 North, the Cougars are going for an all-time record 11th win on the season. Of course with the low spread posted on this game, it may seem enticing to back Washington State on a 13-game winning streak at home and also having already tied the school record with a 10th win on the year. However, Washington is not going to relinquish their supremacy in this rivalry so easily! The fact is that the Huskies have played a tougher strength of schedule this season. Also, Washington is offering great value here because they've had a tough season ATS and this is overshadowing the fact that they have had a solid season SU. The Cougars have been the hot ATS team and are garnering the attention of the betting markets. One of things we favor overall in terms of betting situations is "running road dogs" that also play solid defense. The Huskies are gaining more than twice as much rushing yardage per game as the Cougars this season. Also, in the last 2 meetings between these teams, Washington has out-gained Washington State by an average of over 200 rushing yards per game in the last two meetings between these rivals. The Huskies are allowing just 16.6 points per game on the season and have allowed 24 points or less in 10 of 11 games this season. The Cougars have allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their last 8 games. Grab the road dog. Washington rolls in this one Friday evening. |
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11-23-18 | East Carolina +19.5 v. Cincinnati | 6-56 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 9 m | Show | |
#117 ASA 9* PLAY ON East Carolina (+) over Cincinnati, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bearcats officially took themselves out of the AAC Championship race last week with a 38-13 loss @ UCF. That was basically a championship type game as the winner was locked into the AAC Title game. It’s going to be very tough for the Bearcats to bounce back and play at a high level this week vs ECU. Cincy is going to a bowl game no matter what so while this one isn’t meaningless, it’s close. The Pirates are MUCH better than their 3-7 record might indicate. They are actually outgaining their opponents by 58 YPG despite their 3 wins. This team can hang around because they can score. They average 456 YPG offensively and they’ve outgained 7 of their 10 opponents. They’ve hung in fairly well against the AAC other top teams this year with turnovers usually taking them out of contention for upsets in those games. Earlier this year against UCF they lost 37-10, however the Pirates were +7 first downs, +70 in total yardage in that game. They also had 5 turnovers, missed a FG, were shut out on downs at the UCF 8-yard line, AND gave up a 94-yard fumble recovery for a TD. That game was much closer than the final score indicated. Against the other two teams vying for a spot in the AAC Championship game, the Pirates were competitive as well. They lost by 18 to Memphis but it was a 4-point game entering the 4th quarter. Against Houston the same scenario. They lost by 22 but Houston returned a fumble for a TD and ECU had more first downs & more yardage. Cincy comes in a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 to the spread. Now laying a huge number in a bad spot we look for ECU to cover this spread. |
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11-22-18 | Colorado State v. Air Force -14.5 | 19-27 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
#112 ASA 9* play on Air Force (-) over Colorado State, 3:30 PM ET - The Falcons have out-gained the Rams by a combined 547 rushing yards in the past two meetings. Of course Air Force is known for their ground attack but Colorado State has held a passing edge in the past two meetings. The Rams passing game may not be so successful in this one however. They have had only one strong game in the air out of 5 games away from home this season. In their other 4 games away from Fort Collins, Colorado State has averaged only 195 passing yards per game. The Rams are off a very tough late-game loss to Utah State as they very nearly pulled off a huge upset. That is the type of defeat that tends to be the most difficult to bounce back from. Colorado State also is just 1-4 ATS in games not played at Fort Collins. The Rams are 2-6 ATS the last 8 times as a conference dog of more than 14 points when off a SU loss. In road games with a total set between 56.5 and 63 points the Rams are on a 9-20 ATS run. All 3 of the wins that Air Force has at home this season have come by 18 points or more. The average margin of victory for Air Force in their home wins has been 28 points this season. The Rams last 4 losses have been by an average margin of 21 points. The forecast is more of the same in this one. We won’t be surprised when the Falcons win this game in a blowout at home. Lay the points! |
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11-17-18 | Cincinnati +7.5 v. Central Florida | 13-38 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
#353 ASA 9* play on Cincinnati (+) over Central Florida, 8PM ET - We have patiently waited for the right spot to fade UCF and the day is here. Based on the strength of schedule these two teams are much closer than you might think but UCF is living on last year’s reputation and a 22-game winning streak. That has forced the oddsmakers to over-adjust the Knights number here. UCF has been out-gained in 3 of their last four games yet went 4-0 SU. Cincinnati has out-gained every opponent but two this season and in those two games they were minus -6-yards and minus -2-yards. Central Florida has a total 36-minute time of possession deficit in their last four games combined and their big play ability will be nullified by a Bearcat defense that allows just 4.2 yards per play which is 5th best in college football. UCF relies on a running game that averages 5.0YPC but Cincinnati gives up just 3.1YPC (14th). Both teams recently played Navy on their home fields and the statistics drastically favor Cincinnati’s results. The Bearcats out-gained Navy by 280 total yards and held the potent Midshipmen rushing attack to just 124 yards and 2.4YPC. That’s quite the defensive statement considering Navy is 3rd in the nation in rushing at 274YPG. Cincinnati beat Navy 42-0. Last week UCF beat Navy 35-24 but the Midshipmen held an 11-minute TOP advantage, rushed for 375 yards at a 6.0YPC average. UCF did put up 300 yards rushing themselves but that was against a Navy defense that is 95th in the country in stopping the run so we’re not impressed. This is clearly a huge game for both teams but Central Florida is carrying the weight of this unbeaten streak and the pressure continues to mount. UCF has an average margin of victory of +23PPG but Cincinnati has a MOV of +20.1PPG and cover the spread by an average of nearly 11PPG. We won’t be surprised when the Bearcats win this game outright on the road. Grab the points! |
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11-17-18 | Iowa State v. Texas OVER 46.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
ASA 10* TOP PLAY Over the total – Iowa State @ Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This total is well too low in our opinion. We had it projected in the mid 50’s and we’re getting a full TD+ less than that here. Part of the reason for the low number might be the recent history between these teams which has been low scoring. However, keep in mind neither of these coaches have been at the school very long (Herman in his 2nd year @ Texas & Campbell in his 3rd year @ ISU) so those historical numbers aren’t as important in our analysis. Last year Texas won this match up 17-7 and the year before it was Texas 27-6. Those totals were set at 62 & 69 respectively and now this one sits below 50 because of those two results. The ISU offense is much improved this year while the Texas defense is down allowing 420 YPG. We see no way that UT shuts down the Cyclone offense that has scored 48, 30, 40, 27, and 28 points their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense has allowed at least 34 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense did shut down TCU & KSU to 16 & 14 points respectively in their first two conference games but those are the 2 of the 3 worst offenses in the Big 12 in scoring offense with the other being Kansas who Texas plays next weekend. Even with the poor offenses in play in those two games, the totals were BOTH set higher than this on (48.5 & 50). Herman has his offense humming in his 2nd year as head coach. They have scored at least 28 points in all but 2 games this year. They play fast averaging 76 plays per game which is 16th nationally. They are a tough offense to defend as they are very balanced. Iowa State’s overall defensive numbers are off in our mind. They played very well against weak offenses this year (Kansas & TCU) and have one outlier game where they shut down WVU’s offense to 14 points. That is not the norm for this team. It was just one of those games in our opinion. Last week it may look like they played great defensively holding a middle of the pack Baylor offense to just 14 points. Take a closer look. The Bears had over 500 yards of total offense but missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice inside the ISU 15-yard line. That 28-14 final was very misleading as Baylor potentially left 20+ points off the board in that game. Even with that those two got to 42 points which isn’t far off this posted total. Offensively, ISU struggled early in the year but since switching to Brock Purdy at QB in early October. In his 5 starts the Cyclones are averaging 34 PPG and have not been held under 27 in any of those games. We also like the fact that ISU tends to play how their opponent plays. They can play fast or slow. They were in grinder, low-scoring games TCU & Kansas but vs teams that are similar in style to Texas (Okla St, Texas Tech, & Oklahoma) they were involved in high scoring games (90, 71, and 64 points scored respectively). In games they can get a lead and grind the offense they do that. In games where they have trouble slowing down the other team, which we feel they will here, they have to score to keep up and they do just that. We don’t see either defense slowing down the opposing offense in this game. Both teams have been quite efficient on a yards per point basis with Texas averaging 12.9 & ISU 13.7. The weather looks perfect in Austin with temps in the mid 60’s and light wins in the forecast at gametime. This one goes OVER this total easily. |
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11-17-18 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 | Top | 47-44 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one. |
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11-17-18 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +100 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
#416 ASA 9* PLAY ON Nebraska (+) over Michigan State, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - It is hard to envision the Spartans having a lot of energy or enthusiasm for this game Saturday.. Michigan State badly wanted the game last week when they hosted Ohio State. The Spartans actually were in that game for quite a while before the Buckeyes pulled away late. Not only is that the type of big game loss that can leave a team flat, this also is a situation where Michigan State really doesn't have much to play for either. The Spartans already have 6 wins and are simply "playing out" the regular season since they've already clinched a bowl berth. As for the Cornhuskers, though they have a 3-7 record on the season, they've been playing their best football of late. Nebraska had a write-in game on October 27th against Bethune-Cookman which they won easily but did not cover the huge spread. However, the Huskers are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games in Big Ten action and the Huskers have scored 46 points per game in their last 4 games overall. Granted one of those was the Bethune-Cookman game but the fact is the last time Nebraska failed to cover a Big Ten game was their late September loss to Purdue. This Huskers team has clearly been playing its best football of the season the past 6 weeks. Though the Spartans have a fantastic defense (particularly against the run) one could easily question their motivation here and also how much they'll have left in the tank. Michigan State has played a grueling stretch as their last 6 games the past 6 weeks have included just one easy opponent (Maryland) and that was on the road. Big battles recently with Michigan, Penn State, the potent Purdue offense and also Ohio State could easily have this team "out of gas" for this one. The Huskers are likely to prove to be the hungrier team and they have averaged 538 yards per game their last 7 games. Conversely, the Spartans have averaged just 287.5 yards of offense per game their last 4 games. Again, opponents faced is a factor in this but, overall on the season these teams have played very similar schedules and yet the Cornhuskers are trending up while Michigan State is clearly trending down here late in the season. Nebraska has won 6 of the last 8 meetings with Michigan State SU and is on a 6-2 ATS run in the last 8 meetings with the Spartans. This season Big Ten teams are 1-5 ATS their next game after facing Ohio State. In other words, taking on the Buckeyes tends to take a lot out of teams both physically and emotionally and we fully expect a flat game from the Spartans in this one. The play here is Nebraska |
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11-16-18 | Boise State v. New Mexico OVER 61.5 | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Over the Total - Boise @ New Mexico, Friday at 9:00 PM ET |
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11-15-18 | Tulane v. Houston OVER 67 | 17-48 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Over the Total - Tulane @ Houston, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 67 | 17-52 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Under the Total - Buffalo @ Ohio, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State OVER 57.5 | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Over the Total - Western Michigan @ Ball State, Tuesday at 6:00 PM ET |
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11-10-18 | Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215 |
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11-10-18 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +4 | 26-6 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Michigan State (+) over Ohio State, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #220 - We obviously follow the Big Ten as close as anyone and something is definitely off with this OSU team. We’ve heard rumblings that there are cohesion problems in the locker room and it’s showing up on the field. This team is nowhere near as good as recent OSU teams and their 8-1 record is masking some problems. Three weeks ago the Buckeyes were blasted by 29 points @ Purdue. They had a bye coming off that loss leading into last week’s home game vs Nebraska and if they were ever going to bounce back and destroy someone it was last week. They didn’t. In fact a 2-win Nebraska team actually led at half and took OSU to the wire at the Horseshoe. While they did run the ball pretty well against a terrible Husker defense the Buckeyes have had trouble running the ball for most of the season. They will continue those struggles again this week versus a Michigan State defense that ranks #1 nationally allowing just 77 YPG on the ground. It’s been no better on the defensive side of the ball for the Bucks. They are allowing 402 YPG this season which is a full 100 yards worse than a year ago. They have allowed 26 points or more 6 times already this year. Last year they allowed 26+ only 3 times all season. MSU got starting QB Lewerke back off an injury in last week’s 24-3 win @ Maryland. They are playing very well winning 3 of their last 4 including wins over Penn State & Purdue. Their lone loss over the last month was a 21-7 setback vs Michigan which doesn’t look all that bad based on how the Wolverines are destroying everyone else. The host has a big edge defensively and their offense has started to look much better over the last month. Last week they ran for 269 yards vs Maryland and if they can run the ball here and take some pressure off Lewerke their offense will do very well here vs a struggling OSU defense that has allowed 80 point and almost 1,000 yards in their last 2 games alone. The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we’ll call for the Spartans to win this game outright at home. |
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11-10-18 | South Carolina v. Florida -6 | 31-35 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Florida (-) over South Carolina, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #194 - After 4 straight wins in SEC action, Florida has now last back to back games. Not only is this week's game versus South Carolina a revenge game for the Gators, it is also their final SEC game of the season. In other words, there is little doubt that Florida is looking to come out strong here after losing their annual showdown with Georgia and then falling short versus Missouri last week. Gators head coach Dan Mullen was previously at Mississippi State from 2010 to 2017. When the Bulldogs entered a game off 2 or more consecutive SU losses, Mullen coached them to an 11-4 SU record and 10-4 ATS! In other words, look for Mullen to have his team ready to respond here! The Gamecocks enters this game off an upset win. Coincidentally, that upset win was at Mullen's old employer in Mississippi State. Though South Carolina's offense impressed, the Gamecocks were outgained by over 100 yards as their defense struggled badly. Also, this is coach Will Muschamp's third season with the Gamecocks. This is the first time this season they've won back to back games and, in Muschamp's tenure at South Carolina, when the Gamecocks are on a winning streak of 2 or more games and on the road, they've lost both times and each defeat came by a margin of at least 13 points. South Carolina is also a long-term 2-11 ATS in road games with a total set in a range of 52.5 and 56 points. Per all of the above, you can see why we’re calling for the Gators to win this one by double digits in a home blowout. |
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11-10-18 | Navy +25 v. Central Florida | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Navy (+) over Central Florida, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #135 - The Knights entered last week in a battle with two teams in the AAC East Division. Those two teams were Temple and Cincinnati. With that being said, this is a classic trap game this week for UCF. The Knights defeated Temple last week but were out-gained in the game plus allowed a ridiculous 670 yards. That was a key win for Central Florida and now next week's game is even bigger as they host Cincinnati! The point is that Navy (with a 2-7 record) is unlikely to have the full attention of the Knights here and that could certainly prove to be dangerous. The Midshipmen are a long-term 16-4 ATS as a road dog of 21.5 points or more. This has plenty to do with their style of play as it makes it difficult for teams to truly blow them out. Navy's offense is a ground-based attack and teams that run the ball well are able to control the clock in games and also keep the ball out of the opponents hands. That is the game plan again here of course and, though UCF is clearly the better team, the Knights are also clearly in a bad scheduling spot and will have a lot of trouble getting this margin above the two TD mark. Despite the large difference in records between these teams they are statistically equal except for the Knights passing attack on offense. That is an edge UCF has but it is not enough of an edge for this type of overlay on a game and this is particularly true when one considers that Navy has played the tougher schedule this season too! Despite last week's ugly loss at Cincinnati, the Midshipmen are still an incredible 13-4 ATS the last 17 times they have faced a team with a winning percentage above .800 that is off a SU win. Of course that system fits again here for Navy this week against undefeated UCF. Though the Knights have extra rest here, Central Florida is actually a poor 3-6 ATS when playing with 8 days of rest between games and the look ahead factor here is a huge one for the Knights. We’ll call for the Midshipmen to stay well within the big number in this one. |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON Boise State (+) over Fresno State, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - It’s not often we get a chance to take Boise at home as an underdog. In fact, the last time the Broncos were getting points at home was 17 years ago back in 2001. That’s a span of 111 straight home games as a favorite until tonight. This is a team that has the best home field advantage in America. Since September of 2001 the Broncos have a 105-6 record at home! Fresno has won and covered 7 in a row and now they come in overvalued. The Bulldog defense has phenomenal numbers allowing just 12 PPG. While they are good, they aren’t that good. That’s because they haven’t played a single offense ranked in the top 40 in total offense this season! Zero. The three best offenses they’ve played (Minnesota, Hawaii, and Toledo) have all put up 20 or more on this defense. Boise will be the best offense they’ve faced this season by far coming in ranked 20th in total offense averaging 468 YPG on 6.3 YPP. Boise’s QB Rypien has been in many big games in his successful career as he has thrown for almost 13,000 yards and 84 TD’s. We’ll take him at home in a game of this magnitude. FSU’s offensive stats sit in a similar situation. They rank 43rd nationally in total offense however they should be better than that based on the defenses they have faced this season. They’ve only played one team ranked higher than 76th in total defense and 5 of their 9 opponents rank 100th or lower in total defense. This Boise team will be easily the best team Fresno has faced this year. The Bulldogs have not played a close game since their 21-14 loss @ Minnesota and the Gophs have shown they are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. How will they react in a tight game which this one is destined to be? Not as well as the home team that expect to win every game at home. Boise was favored by 6.5 @ Fresno last year. They were also favored by 10 in the 2nd meeting of the year which was the MWC Championship game. Now they are getting points at home? Bad line in our mind and we like Boise to pull the upset on Friday night. |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 67.5 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ North Carolina State Wolfpack, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #109 |
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11-07-18 | Toledo +3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 15-38 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Toledo Rockets (+) over Northern Illinois Huskies, Wednesday at 8 PM ET: Game #105 |
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11-06-18 | Kent State +20.5 v. Buffalo | 14-48 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Kent State Golden Flashes (+) over Buffalo Bulls, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #101 |
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11-03-18 | Missouri +6.5 v. Florida | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Missouri Tigers (+) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #337 |
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11-03-18 | Penn State v. Michigan -12 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406 |
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