For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-21-20 | Indiana v. Ohio State -20.5 | 35-42 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
#358 ASA PLAY ON 8* Ohio State -20.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 Noon ET - We’re simply not sold on the undefeated Hoosiers quite yet. They are 4-0 but let’s quickly recap their games so you can see what we mean. They opened the season beating PSU 36-35 in OT. Looked like a great win at the time. PSU is now 0-4. Not only that, the Nittany Lions dominated that game with nearly a +300 total yard advantage. Their other wins have come against Rutgers, Michigan, and Michigan State. Their home win vs the Wolverines looked great at the time as well but now, not swo much. The combined record of those teams that IU beat is 3-10. We think they are walking into a hornet’s nest here. OSU had an unwanted bye last week as their game vs Maryland was cancelled. They are healthy and anxious to get back on the field. This is a prove a point type game for the Buckeyes and it might be their last one until the Big 10 Championship game as they should be favored by 28+ from this point on in the regular season. IU is tied with OSU for first place in the Big 10 East and the winner has the inside track to the conference championship game. Don’t think that hasn’t been brought up numerous times to the OSU players. We think they get ahead and don’t take their foot off the pedal in this one as they want to make a statement. Indiana struggles to run the ball ranking 117th nationally despite their easy schedule thus far. That puts a ton of pressure on QB Penix to make plays and he has this year, however he’s seen nothing close to the defense he’ll see on Saturday. He’s been fairly mistake free with just 3 interceptions this year. We think that changes here vs a Buckeye defense that has 5 takeaways in 3 games. The Hoosier defense has seen nothing close to OSU’s offense this season. The QB’s they’ve faces are PSU’s Clifford (already been benched), Rutgers Vedral (already thrown 7 picks averaging only 180 YPG passing), Michigan’s Milton (just 58% completion rate), and MSU’s Lombardi (already benched). Now they face Justin Fields who has completed 87% of this passes this year (only 11 incompletions this season) who has thrown for 52 TD’s and just 3 interceptions since taking over last season. Ohio State has won 25 straight in this series and each of the last 4 have come by at least 21 points. They were favored by 17 @ Indiana last year and won by 41 points. We think OSU rolls in this game. |
|||||||
11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force -7 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Air Force Falcons (-) over New Mexico Lobos, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This line opened up at double digits and, as of Thursday afternoon, is down to a -7 on the Falcons. We like the line value here with a move that we fully understand here but absolutely disagree with. Part of the reason for the move is Rocky Long is the defensive coordinator for New Mexico and he has, in his pedigree, a history of stopping option teams. However, he doesn't have the personnel this season to do it. Three of the key components to properly stopping an option attack are game-planning, talent, and execution. Long can game-plan all he wants but he still has to have the proper personnel and disciplined players to go out and execute and this is a bad Lobos defense. So far this season they have not given up much on the ground but that's simply because teams know they can throw all over them. In other words it does not necessarily mean that New Mexico is built to stop the run, it just means that when a team is allowing 410.3 passing yards per game why not throw against them? That is the type of defense we're talking about here...a very bad one! The Lobos have lost all 3 of their games this season and each of the last two seasons they were beaten badly in their match-ups with Air Force. The Falcons won those games by an average margin of 20 points per game. Also, AF averaged 345.5 yards per game on the ground and 236 yards through the air. The Falcons enter this game off back to back losses but had over 400 yards rushing in their most recent game and that was against a tough Boise State team! Now Air Force enters well-rested as they have had some covid issues result in postponements in recent weeks. They will be ready to go here and just like in their season opener against Navy (we had the Falcons in that blowout win of 40-7) when everyone doubts Air Force they seem to be at their best. Look for them to take advantage of a Lobos offense likely to again be without QB Tevaka Tuioti (doubtful - concussion) and that means we likely again see Trae Hall under center. Hall has a 0-2 TD-INT ratio this season and has been sacked 4 times in just about 40 dropbacks to pass plus he has not had success running the ball. He also completes only about 50% of his passes. On the other side of the ball, again Long just doesn't have the guys to be a successful defense. This team lost nearly every starter from last year's defense and they are especially thin up front. New Mexico has been playing their games in, and practicing in, Vegas due to covid issues in New Mexico. Air Force has been at home and hungry to get back on the field after the Falcons lost at home against Boise State 3 weeks ago. The Falcons have extra rest while the Lobos are playing a 4th straight week and the AF ground game will eventually wear them down. The Falcons roll in this one. This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the points with Air Force. |
|||||||
11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +1.5 | Top | 52-44 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #314 |
|||||||
11-17-20 | Akron +27 v. Kent State | 35-69 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Akron Zips (+) @ Kent State Golden Flashes, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #302 |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#192 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON San Diego State Aztecs (-) over Hawaii Warriors, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - Situations don't get much better than this. The Aztecs just lost at home by a double digit margin even though they were a double digit favorite versus San Jose State! Undoubtedly, there will be extra focus from San Diego State this week at home after what happened right here last week. Not only that, after beating the Warriors 6 straight times both SU and ATS in MWC action, Hawaii has beaten the Aztecs each of the past two seasons including once as a huge underdog. So this is a double revenge spot for San Diego State and they are catching the Warriors at the perfect time to exact that revenge. Hawaii is off of a home win over New Mexico but they allowed 33 points to the Lobos and NM is not only one of the worst teams in the MAC but one of the worst in the nation for FBS programs! The Warriors now are on the road again - for the 3rd time in 4 weeks! - while the Aztecs are back home for a 2nd straight week. The scheduling edge and situational edge here both are huge factors. Additionally, Hawaii has allowed an average of 32 points per game their past two games and allowed 31.9 points per game last season. San Diego State allowed only 12.7 points per game last season and, before getting upset by the Spartans and allowing 28 points last week, the Aztecs allowed 7 points or less in EACH of their first two games. Huge defensive edge to the home team in this one including allowing just 233 yards per game this season while the Warriors are allowing 433 yards per game! The Aztecs also are outgaining Hawaii on the offensive side (452 to 429) and, per our computer math model, San Diego State pulls away as this one goes on. This one has all the right ingredients for a blowout home win and we're laying the points with San Diego State |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +12 | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
#148 ASA PLAY 8* ON Boston College Eagles (+) over Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - While it is true that the Fighting Irish have beaten the Eagles big in each of the last two meetings, it is also true that this is a very unique situation. Notre Dame is off an OT win over Clemson, the #1 team in the nation, and they have a big game against North Carolina on deck. Will the Irish be able to fully focus on a team they've beaten by an average margin of 31 points in the past 2 meetings? That is highly unlikely and, as a result, Boston College will take advantage and keep this game very close throughout as they seek a big upset win of their own. Another angle to like here is Eagles QB Jurkovec going against his former team. Though Boston College will find it a bit of a challenge to run against the ND defense, Jurkovec has a 15-4 ratio this season and will do some damage through the air here as the Fighting Irish get caught flat after the monumental win over the Tigers last week. Though the Eagles are off a non-covering win over Syracuse last week, they did go with a very conservative gameplan there and held the Orange to only 240 yards. On offense, Boston College certainly held back plenty in the playbook that they have been saving for this week's huge game at Chestnut Hill, MA. Also, the Clemson team that Notre Dame just beat last week was without star QB Lawrence plus a number of starters on defense. A big win for the Irish for sure but would have been unlikely had those guys played. Boston College recently faced the same Clemson team and lost by only 6 points. The point is that the Eagles can absolutely be competitive here with the Irish and the last 11 times that BC has been a home underdog they have only lost one time ATS! This one has potential for the home dog keeping it close all the way through and we're grabbing the points with Boston College |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech -121 | Top | 25-24 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
#156 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Money Line -121 over Miami, FL, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET - With money line available as low as -120 range on this one that makes sense here rather than laying the -2 for those of you who have access to the money line. We really feel this Va Tech team is undervalued overall with a 4-3 record. Apparently the oddsmakers agree is the Hokies are favored in this game vs a Miami team that is ranked 9th in the country. With that the majority of tickets (70% plus) are coming in on Miami which is to be expected. Let’s bet the underdog that is ranked in the top 10. Seems easy. On top of that VT was upset at home last week by Liberty. Makes this even easier to side with the Canes right? There is a reason the Hokies are favored in this game. Offensively they are very tough to stop as they are the 4th best rushing team in the nation averaging 278 YPG (6.4 YPC) and they are in the top 20 in offensive efficiency at over 7.0 YPP. Starting QB Hooker returned to full strength 4 games ago and he provides a huge threat running the ball (6.3 YPC) as well as throwing (67% completion rate for 870 yards). They should be very successful vs a Miami defense that is allowing 148 YPG on the ground. Looking further into that, if you throw out the game the Canes had vs Pitt who is a terrible running team (112th nationally out of 123), Miami is allowing 187 YPG on the ground in their other 5 ACC contests. Now they face the best rushing attack they’ve seen this season. The Canes defense has also been shredded for over 400 total yards in all 3 road games they’ve played this season. We’re not sold on Miami. They are a good team but overrated in our opinion. Two of their last three games were played vs teams that did not have the starting QB available (NC State & Pitt). Last week they trailed NC State, without their starting QB, for most of the game including by 10 points in the 4th quarter. They scored on a 54 yard pass with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pick up the 44-41 win. A week earlier they struggled at home with a 2-4 Virginia team coming out on top 19-14. The one good team they played this season, Clemson, blasted them 42-17 and outgained the Canes by 340 yards! We’re not saying VT is Clemson, but this is definitely the 2nd best team Miami has faced this season. VT’s defensive numbers aren’t great, but they do get to the QB very well (top 15 nationally in sacks per game). Miami’s offensive line hasn’t been very good this year and despite their mobile QB King, they are still 88th in sacks allowed per game. Their RB’s haven’t been very good averaging just 4.5 YPC and QB King is nearly their leading rusher (2nd leading rusher 2 yards behind RB Harris). If you can focus on King and slow him down, this Miami offense is in trouble. They rely too heavily on one guy. This is the 2nd of back to back games for Miami and they’ve been dealing with some Covid issues and had a few starters out last week including on the offensive line. Head coach Manny Diaz said it’s been so bad in recent practices they’ve had grad assistant coaches lining up at DB and kickers taking on the role of WR’s on the scout team. We love looking at unranked home teams favored over ranked road teams, especially teams in the top 10. Other things must obviously fall into place as well and we feel they have for this one. This season unranked home teams favored over ranked road teams are 58-40 ATS. Last year there were 2 games all season in which a team with at least 3 losses was favored at home vs a team with 0 or 1 loss and the home team won both of those games. We expect Virginia Tech to come out and play with a purpose after blowing their home game last week vs Liberty (were they looking ahead to this one?). The Hokies get the home win and cover. |
|||||||
11-13-20 | Iowa -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 7:00 PM ET Iowa picked up their first win of the season last Saturday but they are much better than a 1-2 team. They’ve actually outgained all 3 of their opponents and they are +1.1 YPP differential on the season which is very solid. They’ve led all 3 games in the 4th quarter as well. The Hawks finally put it all together last week in a dominating 49-7 win over Michigan State. The defense, which has played very well this season, held MSU to just 10 first downs and only 59 yards rushing (Iowa had 226 yards on the ground). That defense is getting 2 key players back this week including starting LB Campbell who will now split time at the position helping their depth. Minnesota’s defense played much better last week but we’re not falling for it. The first 2 games they were terrible allowing 94 points on more than 9.0 YPP. So why did they look so much better last week? They played an Illinois team that has had a number of key players out with Covid and their QB position is in disarray as they were down to their 4th string QB Taylor who only completed 6 passes the entire game. This defense still stinks and even with last week’s performance they are allowing 8.2 YPP which is the worst in college football. They have the same 1-2 record as Iowa but the Gophers YPP differential is -2.0 which is a full 3 yard difference PER PLAY when compared to Iowa’s YPP differential numbers which we discussed earlier. The Gophers leaned heavy on their running game last week with 325 yards vs a terrible Illinois defense but they won’t get that luxury this week facing a Hawkeye defense that is allowing just 2.6 YPC this season. On the flip side, Iowa ran the ball very well last week and should continue vs a Minnesota defense that allows 7.3 YPC. This should keep the Iowa offense very balanced in this game which is bad news for an already terrible Gopher defense. On the other side this will be the best defense that Minnesota has faced this season. They’ve faced 2 terrible stop units (Maryland & Illinois) and a Michigan defense that has proven to be not so good thus far. The defensive difference in this game is enormous so we’re siding with Iowa to win and cover on the road. |
|||||||
11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois +8 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Northern Illinois Huskies (+) over Central Michigan Chippewas, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Central Michigan is off a tight win at home but they were helped by a pair of Ohio University turnovers. Also, the Bobcats simply aren't on the level with the Buffalo team that Northern Illinois had to face last week. In fact, heading into the season many had Buffalo pegged as the best team in the MAC this season. That said, even though the Huskies lost ugly on the scoreboard against the Bulls there are a couple of important factors to note. One is that it was a big-time revenge game for Buffalo. Another is that Northern Illinois was done in by turnovers in that game as too many fumbles were the difference in that one. In fact the Huskies actually outgained the Bulls and had 26 first downs compared to just 14 for Buffalo. Now Northern Illinois is in the 2nd of back to back home games and will certainly take better care of the ball in this one. Central Michigan is being over-valued as this line opened up at a 6 but has moved up past the -7 mark as of Tuesday evening. The Chippewas are getting too much respect here. Even if QB David Moore returned from his suspension for this one it would be his first live game action in a full year. If Central Michigan is again without Moore, most likely, it will be a redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson making his first ever road start at QB. This will be much tougher on Richardson in comparison with playing at home last week. The Huskies also have revenge on their minds here as they got blasted at Central Michigan last season. The last time the Chippewas visited Northern Illinois the Chips lost by a 24-16 margin. Per our computer math model this game has high probability that it will be a game decided by a single possession which means great value with the Huskies available in the +7.5 range for this one. This one has potential for a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Northern Illinois |
|||||||
11-10-20 | Kent State v. Bowling Green +21 | 62-24 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Bowling Green Falcons (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #110 |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Oklahoma State -12 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
#375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Michigan -3 v. Indiana | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 37 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan -3 over Indiana, 12:00 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for Michigan. They are coming off a home loss vs Michigan State while IU sits on top of the Big Ten East with a 2-0 record, tied with OSU. The Hoosiers are very fortunate to be undefeated. They topped PSU in OT in week 1 despite getting outgained 488 to 211 and outrushed 250 to 41. Last week they beat a Rutgers team that just ended a 23 game conference losing streak a week prior. So in essence, IU won a game they shouldn’t have and beat Rutgers. Big deal. Michigan destroyed Minnesota in week 1 putting up 49 points. Last week it looked like they were a bit full of themselves entering their game vs arch rival MSU who was off a loss to Rutgers (due to 7 MSU turnovers). Sparty definitely looked like the more motivated team and pulled the upset. The Wolverines should be very motivated here off that performance. Their offense has been good putting up 481 vs Minnesota and 452 vs a solid MSU defense. On defense they’ve been solid against the run and struggled a bit vs the pass. IU can’t run the ball. They’ve averaged 1.6 YPC vs PSU and 2.6 YPC vs Rutgers. Michigan should shut down that portion of their offense making them one dimensional. Indiana QB Penix is solid but not the type of throwing quarterback you want to carry a team through the air. These 2 have faced off 32 times since 1980. Michigan has won 31 of those games and has been favored in all 32. This current line of Michigan -3 is the lowest spread ever in this series. Michigan was favored by 10 here last year with fans in the stands for IU (Mich won 39-14). Now they are a full TD lower just 1 year later with in an empty IU stadium? Looks like the Wolverines are undervalued coming off their loss while Indiana is overvalued with their 2-0 start. Lay the points with Michigan. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | West Virginia +6.5 v. Texas | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #377 |
|||||||
11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 47.5 Points – San Jose State @ San Diego State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Nick Starkel is the quarterback at San Jose State. Before "arriving" (literally!) with the Spartans, he started his career in the SEC - first with Texas A & M and then with Arkansas. Starkel has the background to play very well in the Mountain West and he is already doing it. Of course he goes from facing some easier competition in the first two games this season to facing a tough San Diego State defense but, the fact is, this is a solid Spartans offense that can put up plenty of points. Last season they had one of the top passing attacks in football with 338 yards per game and this is a team that averaged 30 points per game! The problem for San Jose State is they generally can't stop anyone. Don't be fooled by their first two games this season as they faced struggling offenses. San Diego State is averaging 347 rushing yards per game this season and has put up at least 34 points in each of their first two games. The Aztecs will run all over a Spartands rush defense that was one of the worst in the nation against the run last season as they allowed 232.1 yards per game on the ground. San Diego State has looked very strong on offense and has already scored more points in each of their first two games this season than they did in any of their regular season games last season! That helps key this over as does the fact that San Jose State looks even better than last year's offense. That being said, this match-up will see more points than last year's which ended up a 27-17 final. Per our computer math modeling, more scoring occurs compared to what many are expecting in this one and that means an OVER here! |
|||||||
11-05-20 | Wyoming v. Colorado State +3.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Colorado State Rams (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #306 |
|||||||
11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -123 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
#286 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Miami-OH Redhawks (-) over Ball State Cardinals, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Our projections heading into this MAC season have the Redhawks finishing near the top of the East Division right behind Buffalo while the Cardinals are likely to finish in the bottom half of the West Division. Though Ball State did go 4-4 in the MAC last season they just don't have the defense to improve on that this season plus lost some key talent at WR and along the offensive line heading into this season. Last season Ball State finished up on a 1-4 run and the only win was in their season finale over the Redhawks. Now the rematch this season is at Miami-OH and our computer math model is projecting a big revenging win for the home team in this one. The Cardinals are particularly thin at defensive line entering this season and the Redhawks return 4 offensive linemen as they got Doyle and Godlevske back after those two had initially opted out. That is key as that means returning QB Gabbert is part of a strong group of returning starters on offense including a very solid offensive line including his left tackle and center returning after they had considered opting out. The Redhawks went 6-2 in the MAC last season and appear poised for another strong season and though the defense is a bit of a concern for Miami-OH, the Cardinals defense is an even bigger concern and the Redhawks very experienced offensive group plus home field plus revenge all factor into a solid win here. Look for the host to improve to 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Miami-OH has some guys out at TE and RB for this one but they have ample talent there including returning most of their running back rotation from last season. The Redhawks roll in this one. This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the small number with Miami-OH |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 64.5 | Top | 38-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
#135/136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 64.5 Points – Ohio State @ Penn State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - PSU gave up 36 points to Indiana last week in a 1-point OT loss. It may look like the defense struggled simply looking at the score but that was not the case. In fact, the Nittany Lions limited Indiana to just 211 total yards on 3.4 YPP. On the ground the Hoosiers only averaged 1.6 YPC. Prior to IU’s final 75 yard TD drive in the final minute which tied the game, the Hoosiers had a total of 136 yards of offense. Turnovers killed Penn State in that loss leading to short fields and points for Indiana. OSU’s defense looked very solid in game 1 limiting a Nebraska offense that returned 10 starters to just 17 points. Much of the Huskers offense came from their QB’s running the ball. If you subtract the rush yards from Martinez and McCaffrey the two NU QB’s, the offense barely had 200 yards. Buckeye QB Fields played a great game but other than that, the offense wasn’t super. While Fields was their leading rusher, the OSU RB’s only rushed for 89 yards on 23 carries (3.8 YPC). That could be a problem facing a PSU rush defense that led the Big 10 last year allowing just 95 YPG and looks very good again this year. Last year these two played to 28-17 OSU win totaling just 45 points. The 2 defenses combined to hold the offenses to just 4.3 YPP in that game. Going back further, 4 of the last 5 in this series have stayed UNDER the total and this is just the 2nd time in the last 10 meetings the total has been set in the 60’s. Last year’s total was 58 which is more on par with where this one should be in our opinion. There have been 28 games played in this Big 10 series and only THREE have reached 60 or more points. With this total set at 64 at least one or possibly both teams need to get into the 30’s. PSU has allowed 30 or more in just 3 of their last 26 games. OSU hasn’t allowed 30 in 16 straight games. UNDER in the play here. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Virginia Tech v. Louisville +3.5 | 42-35 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #122 |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Ole Miss -17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 54-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185 |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Michigan State +24.5 v. Michigan | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 19 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan State +24.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line is simply too high for this rivalry. Last year’s line was Michigan -13.5 at home WITH fans and now just one year later we are looking at the Wolverines nearly 2 TD’s higher in an empty stadium. Let’s not overreact to what happened last week which is why this line is so high. MSU lost at home to Rutgers, we get it. However, they outgained the Knights by nearly 100 yards but had SEVEN turnovers. MSU’s first 6 offensive possessions went like this – fumble, fumble, shut out on downs, TD, interception, and fumble. You simply have zero chance to win a game at any level if you turn the ball over on half of your offensive possessions which is exactly what the Spartans did. Defensively they were solid. The allowed barely over 2.0 YPC on the ground and they held Rutgers to less than 4.0 YPP. Michigan looked great last week (overvalued now?). They took on a Minnesota team that was returning most of their key players offensively but had to retool nearly their entire defense. The Gophs also announced just before game time they would be without 2 starting offensive lineman along with their top LB (COVID issues). Thus the new sports handicapping world we live in where PJ Fleck keeps that under wraps from everyone until right before the game starts (we had Minnesota). Let’s not forget Michigan has a brand new QB who made his first ever start, 4 new offensive lineman, and they lost their top 2 receivers from last year. Now they face an MSU defense that should be fairly solid this year and we don’t expect them to put up 40+ as they did last week vs a depleted Minnesota defense. We expect new head coach Mel Tucker to rally the troops this week after an embarrassing performance last Saturday. This is the 2nd highest spread EVER in this series and only TWICE in the last 27 games in this series has there been a winning margin of more than 24 points. The line value is definitely on MSU here and we’ll take the points. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -4.5 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #118 |
|||||||
10-30-20 | Minnesota v. Maryland OVER 61 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
#131/132 ASA PLAY 8* ON Over 61 Points – Minnesota @ Maryland, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The Maryland defense was one of the worst in the nation last year finishing dead last in the Big Ten in total defense. After one game, it looks like they might be worse this season. They allowed a Northwestern team that finished 13th in the conference last year at 16.3 PPG to put up 43 last Saturday. The Cats rolled up well over 500 yards including 325 on the ground. Minnesota put up 24 points vs a Michigan defense that is light years better than this Maryland stop unit. The Gophs scored 52 last year on the Terps and bring back essentially the same offense. We anticipate Minnesota topping 40 here and wouldn’t be surprised if they push 50 again. Can Maryland get their offense going after scoring only 3 points last week vs Northwestern? We think so. First of all they’ll be facing a Minnesota defense that lost most of their production from last year and allowed 49 points to a Michigan offense that was replacing nearly everyone from a year ago. They also have up a ridiculous 9.0 YPP and over 8.0 YPC on the ground. We liked Minnesota last week due to their experienced, potent offense and hoped their newcomers on defense would hold up. They are much worse than we anticipated on that side the ball. Maryland QB Tagovailoa (yes Tua’s brother) is talented and got his feet wet last week. He threw 3 interceptions and we expect a much better game from him as he faces a defense that is a big step down from Northwestern’s. The Terp defense has allowed at least 40 points in 6 of their last 10 games and we don’t anticipate them slowing Minnesota down here. While we expect Minnesota’s offense to thrive, we could never lay 20 points with the Gophs with a terrible defense. Maryland will look much better this week on offense and the weather looks perfect for this game with light winds and no precip. We like the OVER here. |
|||||||
10-29-20 | South Alabama +5.5 v. Georgia Southern | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 53 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) @ Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #104 |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 | 49-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
#386 ASA PLAY 7* ON Minnesota +3 over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We think the line value is with the Gophers in this game. We have this game power rated to a pick-em. Michigan gets the 3 point bump because of their name value I guess. The Wolverines offense is a complete unknown coming into the season and will be a work in progress. Their new starting QB Milton has thrown 11 passes in his college career. He’ll be operating behind a brand new offensive line that lost 4 of 5 starters from last season. They also lost their top 2 WR’s Black and Collins. Minnesota, on the other hand, is one of the most experienced offenses in college football. They averaged 34 PPG last year and bring back nearly everyone including QB Morgan who led the Big 10 in passing YPG last season. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that brings everyone back and throwing to one of the best WR in the country in Bateman. Both defenses have some question marks this season and while we expect Michigan to be solid on that side of the ball as they always are, let’s not forget this Minnesota defense finished 10th nationally in total defense last year. Again, they have to replace some key players on that side of the ball but so do the Wolverines. Entering the season we’d give Michigan an edge defensively but Minnesota a much larger edge on offense. Let’s also not forget that Minnesota was 11-2 last year and beat the 2nd place team from the Big 10 East (Penn State) along with Auburn in their bowl game. They should feel a bit disrespected being a home underdog in their season opener after their successful run last year. Speaking of home underdog, Minnesota has fallen into that role 36 times since 2007 and they are a money making 23-13 ATS in that spot. We like Minnesota here vs a Michigan team we feel is overrated coming into the season. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
#318 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh +10 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In our opinion, Notre Dame is vastly overvalued at this point of the season due to their perfect 4-0 record. However, they haven’t beaten a single team that currently has a winning record and the combined record of the 4 teams they’ve played is 5-16. Last week they played host to Louisville, who in our power ratings is the best team the Irish have faced, and ND escaped with a 12-7 win. The Irish were held to just 4.9 YPP vs a Louisville team that ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (out of 77). The Notre Dame offense struggled with the Cards last week and now face, by far, the best defense they’ve seen this year as Pitt ranks 7th nationally in total defense. On top of that, ND relies heavily on their running game averaging 45 carries per game (12th most in the country) and Pitt’s defense ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing only 61 YPG. The Panthers are much better than their 3-3 record. They’ve lost 3 straight games by a combined 14 points. Last week they played @ Miami and lost 31-19 but the yardage was close (Pitt outgained by 30 yards) and the defense played very well holding a potent Cane offense to just 331 total yards. Miami did score 31 points but 3 of their TD drives started on Pittsburgh’s half of the field due to turnovers and the Panthers getting shut out on downs. They might be without starting QB Pickett again this week (although he has not been ruled out) but his backup Yellen got his feet wet last week throwing for 277 yards vs Miami. We have Pitt rated about dead even with Louisville so this will be the best team the Irish have played (along with the Cards) AND their first road game of the season. These two programs have faced off 12 times since 2002 with the margin of victory being 8 or less in 10 of those games. Pitt will give Notre Dame all they can handle here and we grab the generous points siding with the home dog. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Baylor v. Texas -9.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
#346 ASA PLAY 8* ON Texas Longhorns -9.5 over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Kansas is 0-4 this season and has lost those 4 games by an average margin of defeat of 28 points. What does that have to do with this play? Well the only win Baylor has came against the Jayhawks in their first game of the season. Baylor's only other game was a loss at West Virginia. Though that was a tight loss (in double OT) for the Bears, they were fortunate they were even in the game. Baylor benefited from being +2 in turnovers in that game and they only had 256 yards of offense in that one! The Bears came into this season with a lot of issues and have been dealing with Covid complications too and that is why they have played only 2 games so far this year! Considering all the pandemic-related issues and the fact the Bears have a new coach this has already been a challenging season for Baylor and they are only two games into it. Things get much tougher this week as the Bears and Horns are rivals and UT is out for revenge after losing last year's game by a two TD margin despite the yardage being equal. Texas is the much better team in this year's match-up and they will roll at home. The Longhorns have a big edge here as they have played 4 games already so they have an edge of 2 extra games under their belts. Also, the situation is ideal as they were off last week but that followed back to back tight losses to TCU and Oklahoma. The Longhorns are chomping at the bit to get back on the field. While their defense has been an issue this season, the UT offense has been nearly unstoppable. The Horns are an efficient offense that plays fast and they are averaging 49.5 points per game this season. Even taking OT points out of the equation, the Longhorns are averaging 44.2 points per game this year. The Bear simply won't be able to keep up. Yes the Texas defense has been a weakness this season but they allowed just 18 points and 345 yards per game in their two home games. They will respond here at home and take advantage of a struggling Bears offense in this one. The Longhorns have had one two-game losing streak each of the last 3 seasons. The streak never reached 3 in any of the 3 seasons. The result was a 3-0 mark with an average margin of victory of 21 points. Per our computer math model, the Longhorns have a high probability of winning this game by a margin of 2 to 3 touchdowns. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday afternoon Big 12 match-up. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 60 | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
#321/322 ASA PLAY 8* ON OVER 60 Points – North Carolina State @ North Carolina, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - First off we are well aware of the injury situation for North Carolina State here. QB Devin Leary is out. However, Bailey Hockman will be in at QB and he led the Wolfpack to their win versus Wake Forest earlier this season and then came in last week against Duke and led them on a scoring drive culminated by his TD pass. Hockman can't wait for this opportunity against NC State's fiercest rival as this is a chance to redeem himself from a rough game in his other road appearance this season (at Virginia Tech). Hockman will be testing out a North Carolina defense that recently got scorched for 495 yards by Virginia Tech two weeks ago! The Tar Heels first two games this season were against Syracuse and Boston College and that helped mask some issues on the defensive side of the ball. The Tar Heels defense absolutely has issues and that is what the Hokies exposed two weeks ago. UNC followed up that effort by allowing 31 points to Florida State in the first half last week. Yes, the Tar Heels shut down FSU in the 2nd half but the Seminoles also seemed to try and go into protect lead mode and very nearly paid for that decision. The Seminoles still finished with 432 yards of offense and this Heels defense still can't be trusted in our opinion. However, the other side of the ball is where UNC really has no issues. The Tar Heels had 558 yards of offense against the Seminoles last week and should have scored much more than 28 points! Also, two weeks ago against the Hokies, North Carolina won the game despite allowing 45 points as they exploded for 56 points on 656 yards of offense. The Heels have a fantastic backfield as Carter and Williams ran for 214 and 169 yards, respectively, plus each had a pair of rushing TDs in that win over Virginia Tech. Also, QB Howell was 18 of 23 for 257 yards and 3 TDs in that game and then threw for 374 yards and 3 more TDs against the Noles last week. The Wolfpack defense is allowing 421.4 yards per game and was only saved last week by the fact they were facing a turnover-prone Blue Devils team. Otherwise Duke would have scored a lot more against NC State and certainly UNC won't be mistake-prone here like the Blue Devils were. The Tar Heels are averaging 7.37 yards per play on offense to rank among the most efficient offenses in the nation. After facing weaker offenses of Duke, Virginia, and Pittsburgh in their last 3 games, NC State now faces a team that is a powerhouse on offense. Keep in mind, the Wolfpack allowed 43.5 points per game their first two games this season. You can see exactly why we're expecting both teams to enjoy plenty of success lighting up the scoreboard in this one as our computer math model is forecasting a shootout. Ideal weather conditions expected for this one as well. Both teams getting well into the 30’s mean an OVER here and Tar Heels (double digit favorite here) have a good shot to get into the 40's! |
|||||||
10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB +2.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
#310 ASA PLAY 8* ON UAB Blazers (+) over Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, Friday at 8 PM ET - Earlier this week UAB was as much as a 3 point favorite. Now the Blazers are a 3 point dog. This is a fantastic value especially when you consider that UAB is on a 21-0 SU run in home games! The Blazers are battle-tested already as they had to face Miami this season. As you would expect, UAB lost that game by double digits but they are 4-0 SU in their other games. In those 4 victories the Blazers are averaging 36.3 points per game. In their last 3 games, UAB has allowed an average of only 12.3 points per game. Also, though they struggled against Miami (as expected), the Blazers have allowed only 285 yards per game in their other 4 games. Their defense is playing well, their offense is playing with confidence with scoring 37 points or more in 3 of their 4 victories and now they are at home where they also have plenty of confidence due to their long-term success here! Louisiana Lafayette still seems to be overvalued from their surprising upset of Iowa State earlier this season. The Ragin' Cajuns are actually 0-3 ATS since that win as 2 of their victories since then have come by 3 or less points. Now UL-Lafayette is off a loss to Coastal Carolina as they enter this game. The Ragin' Cajuns defense just does not seem to be on the same level as last year. Ever since the upset of the Cyclones in Week 1, ULL has been gashed and is giving up an average of 427 yards per game. Per our computer math model, Louisiana Lafayette will struggle to stop the balanced offensive attack of UAB as RB Brown delivers a big game for the Blazers. Couple that with a strong game from the Alabama-Birmingham defense, this match-up is set to go very well for the host! This one has the makings of a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with UAB |
|||||||
10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -13 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 8* ON Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #306 |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech -11.5 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
#112 ASA PLAY 8* ON Virginia Tech -11.5 over Boston College, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We love the rushing disparity in this game which is heavily in favor of Va Tech. The Hokies are 12th nationally in total offense and their running game has been fantastic averaging 299 YPG which is good for 3rd nationally behind only 2 run only option teams (Air Force & Army). BC, on the other hand, has had a long, proud tradition of being able to run the ball and that’s is now what is happening this year. Their biggest output on the ground this season was 87 yards vs Texas State and they currently rank 74th out of 76 teams running the ball for only 60 YPG. As good as their running game has been, we now expect their passing game to take off as well with starting QB Hooker back in the line up. He was out the first 3 games of the season and returned last week @ UNC. The Hokies are coming off their first loss of the season @ North Carolina. Down 35-10 at half, Hooker stepped in for Burmeister, who had been starting due to the Hooker injury, and he led them to 31 second half points scoring on 5 of their 6 possessions. Hooker will be starting here and we look for the offensive to be very good vs BC. VT is also starting to get healthy as they have dealt with numerous Covid quarantines over the first few games and they are still 2-1 despite that. In fact, in their opening 2 wins over NC State and Duke, the Hokies had 20+ players in quarantine that were unable to play and they still came out with W’s. BC is 3-1 but they have not played a road game since September 19th. They are off a huge home win last week as they beat Pitt 31-30 in OT when the Panther placekicker missed an extra point in overtime. Despite their 3-1 record, the Eagles are getting outgained on the season. A team that has a solid record but is getting outgained on a regular basis, plus has no running game is a team that we will most often look to fade. Tech’s offense is now at full strength and we saw a glimpse of what it can do last week in the 2nd half vs a very good North Carolina team. Va Tech was upset @ BC last year 35-28 and had 5 turnovers in that game. A little extra motivation for Saturday. We’re going to lay the points here. |
|||||||
10-17-20 | North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 64 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
#125/126 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 64 Points – North Carolina @ Florida State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - First off we are well aware of the injury situation for Florida State here. QB Jordan Travis is dealing with a hand injury. He has participated in practice this week and was listed as the starter on the depth chart and we do expect him to play here. However, even if he does not start then it will be former starter James Blackman back in the starting role. At home and with a chance to redeem himself from a rough beginning to the season (which cost him his starting job), Blackman would be likely to respond big here given the opportunity. The Seminoles also lost WR Tamorrion Terry to a season-ending injury in the Notre Dame game. Though he was off to a great start for the Noles this season, Terry wasn't even listed as a starter early this season and had worked his way into that role. Would FSU love to have Terry? Of course! But even without him there is plenty of WR talent on this Florida State team and they will be testing out a North Carolina defense that just got scorched for 495 yards by Virginia Tech last week! The Tar Heels first two games this season were against Syracuse and Boston College and that helped mask some issues on the defensive side of the ball. The Tar Heels defense absolutely has issues and that is what the Hokies exposed last week. However, the other side of the ball is where UNC really has no issues. That is why they won last week's game despite allowing 45 points as North Carolina exploded for 56 points on 656 yards of offense. The Heels have a fantastic backfield as Carter and Williams ran for 214 and 169 yards, respectively, plus each had a pair of rushing TDs in the win over Virginia Tech. Also, QB Howell was 18 of 23 for 257 yards and 3 TDs and now takes on a Noles defense that is allowing nearly 70% completion percentage on the season. The Seminoles defense having major issues with 39.3 points per game allowed the last 3 games and the Tar Heels are averaging 7.56 yards per play on offense to rank among the most efficient offenses in the nation. The Noles, on the other hand, allowing 6.49 yards per play on defense to rank among the least efficient defenses in the nation. On offense however Florida State plays at a fast pace (76.5 offensive plays per game) and did put up 26 points on a Fighting Irish defense that had allowed a total of only 13 points in its first two games combined! You can see exactly why we're expecting both teams to enjoy plenty of success lighting up the scoreboard in this one as our computer math model is forecasting a shootout. Ideal weather conditions expected for this one as well. Both teams getting well into the 30’s mean an OVER here and Tar Heels (double digit favorite here) have a good shot to get into the 40's or 50's! |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Army -7.5 v. UTSA | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
#151 ASA PLAY 8* ON Army Black Knights -7.5 over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Last year Army was a 17 point favorite over UTSA and now they are close to just a TD favorite in this year's match-up. This has a lot to do with the Black Knights coming off an unimpressive win over The Citadel last week while the Roadrunners are off an impressive effort at BYU. However, the reality is that all last week's results did was create incredible line value this week. The reason that Army struggled with The Citadel is because the Bulldogs are also an option team and so they are used to seeing it all the time and were able to slow down the Black Knights. Now enter a UTSA defense that rarely sees it plus is coming off a road trip to Utah. This is not a good situation for the Roadrunners and last season Army ran for 340 yards against UTSA. This season Army is averaging 310 rushing yards per game. On defense the Black Knights have been great against the run as they have allowed only 83 rushing yards per game. UTSA managed only 72 yards on the ground at BYU last week. It is tough to win when you lose the rushing stats by a huge margin and that is the projection here per our computer math model. Army dominates the ground game and the scoreboard. The Roadrunners might seem inviting as a home dog but they have actually only covered 3 of the last 9 times they have been in that role. Also, looking at common opponents this season, Army destroyed Middle Tennessee 42-0. That is the same Blue Raiders team that UTSA faced a few weeks ago and only beat 37-35. Against FBS teams, the Runners have allowed 32.8 points per game. Army, in their games against FBS opponents, have allowed just 10.3 points per game. This one has the makings of a road rout and we're laying the points with Army |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Auburn v. South Carolina +3 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
#124 ASA PLAY 8* ON South Carolina +3 over Auburn, Saturday at 12 Noon ET - We were on Auburn last week and lost as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead but struggled defensively vs Arkansas from that point on. After the Tigers grabbed the 17-0 lead, their defense allowed the Razorbacks to score points on 5 of their final 6 possessions to keep it close in Auburn’s 30-28 win. It was a perfect spot to play on the Tigers coming off an embarrassing 6-point effort vs Georgia while Arkansas was coming off a huge win @ Miss State, breaking their 20 game SEC losing streak. We weren’t at all impressed with the way Auburn responded giving up 437 yards to an offense that came in averaging 277.5 yards per game and had not topped 280 yards in either of their first 2 games, including their win over Mississippi State. South Carolina, on the other hand, has impressed us. They opened the season facing ranked opponents on back to back weeks. They lost by 4 points @ home vs Tennessee in a game the Vols scored a defensive TD which turned out to be the difference in the game. Then @ Florida they lost their 2nd game of the season but played fairly well keeping the yardage near even vs a potent Florida offense. We though their defense played very well in that game, despite allowing 38 points, they held the Gators to just 348 total yards. That’s a Florida offense that is averaging 522 YPG in their other two contests this year vs Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The Gamecocks finally were able to take a step down in competition last week and they blasted Vandy 41-7 on the road. Now back at home getting points is a great spot for South Carolina in our opinion. Despite their 2-1 record Auburn is getting outgained by 92 YPG on the season. The Gamecocks, on the other hand, are outgaining their opponents by 58 YPG and remember they’ve faced 2 ranked opponents already this year. SC also has a very good rush defense allowing just 92 YPG and Auburn relies heavily on running the ball. Auburn has a number of key players questionable for this game as well and we simply like the spot for the home dog. Take the points. |
|||||||
10-16-20 | BYU -4.5 v. Houston | 43-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 8* ON Brigham Young Cougars (-) over Houston Cougars, Friday at 9:30 PM ET: Game #109 |
|||||||
10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 8* ON Arkansas State Red Wolves (-) over Georgia State Panthers, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #106 |
|||||||
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #170 |
|||||||
10-10-20 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky +7.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
#358 ASA PLAY 8* ON Western Kentucky +7 over Marshall, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET At 11 AM Pacific Time on Sunday, one of the first sportsbooks in Vegas to put out numbers on this Saturday college football card hung a -2 on Marshall. The Thundering Herd were quickly bet up to a -6.5 within the first 24 hours at that sportsbook and now are up to a full -7 across the board as of Friday (a few are at +7.5). We like to look for spots like this when fading over-valued road favorites and won't hesitate to step in big on this one. The Hilltoppers have covered 6 straight match-ups with the Thundering Herd. Even though Marshall has won each of the last 3 meetings straight up, all 3 victories came by 7 or less points and this one will too per our computer math modeling. The Hilltoppers haven't forgotten last season's game in which they led 23-7 in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing the game when Marshall made a 51 yard field goal on the final play of the game! The Thundering Herd haven't played in 3 weeks and that was an outright upset of Appalachian State. We like fading teams off outright wins as dogs and plus Marshall has had a little too much time between games and will also be playing their first road game of this season. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, are playing their 4th game in 5 weeks but had a bye two weeks ago. WKU also enters this game off their first win of the season but it was a non-covering win. Perfect spot to back the Toppers here as they also want to atone for losing their only home game so far this season in a disappointing performance as a host to Liberty. The Hilltoppers did return a lot of experience from last season's team and last week's win at Middle Tennessee is a confidence booster for this team. Western Kentucky coach Helton has covered 6 of the last 8 times he has been an underdog and five of those were outright upset wins! Marshall has failed to cover 22 of the last 32 times they have been a favorite. Considering the above factors, and the line movement to a full +7, we're happy to bet the revenge-minded dog in this one. This one has the makings of a home upset and we're grabbing the points with Western Kentucky |
|||||||
10-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6 v. Boston College | 30-31 | Loss | -116 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
#311 ASA PLAY 8* ON Pittsburgh -6 over Boston College, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Pitt should be in an angry mood here after losing at home to NC State as a 14 point favorite. Looking at the stat sheet, you’d have no idea how Pitt lost that game. The Panthers rolled up over 500 total yards and held the Wolfpack to 398. NC State scored a TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game to pull the 30-29 upset. Pitt’s defense is outstanding. They rank #3 nationally in total defense allowing just 232 YPG. Their rush defense is a brick wall as they’ve allowed just 57 YPG on the ground through their first 4 games, good for 2nd nationally. Now they are facing a BC team that has been predominantly a running team over the last few years but this season they are only putting up 70 YPG on the ground which ranks them 71st out of 74 teams currently playing. In other words, the Eagles will most likely be one dimensional here with very little success on the ground. That’s never good for an offense. BC comes in with a 2-1 record but they are fortunate to be in that situation. They upset Duke in their first game thanks to the Blue Devils 5 turnovers. Duke has also gone on to lose every game this season (0-4 record) so that win might not be all that impressive in hindsight. BC then played host to Texas State and the Eagles barely squeaked out a 24-21 win as a 17 point favorite. TSU actually outgained the Eagles in that game and led 21-7 late in the 3rd quarter before BC scored the final 17 points including the game winning FG with just 3 seconds remaining. Last week BC was all in at home vs a very solid, and ranked, UNC team. The Eagles trailed the entire game yet scored with under 1:00 minute remaining to pull them within 2. A failed 2 point conversion gave them the loss. That game took a lot out of this team both physically and mentally and this week could be tough for BC. The Panthers are also 2-1 after last week’s loss but they are outgaining their opponents 419 to 232. BC, on the other hand, is getting outgained on the season 345 to 370. BC also upset Pitt on the road last year as a 9-point dog giving the Panthers even more motivation here. We like the better team, who should be very motivated, that is better on both sides of the ball in this game. Laying less than a TD is solid value here. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Auburn -13.5 over Arkansas, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Well Arkansas finally did it. They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog. A couple of quick points about that game. First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point! Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet. The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275. The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers. The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead. Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line. The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury. Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened. Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team. That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week. They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset. Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers. After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases. We got outcoached.” We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week. You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible. We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned. He’ll be motivated as well. This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week. Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later. In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday. The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense. Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6. If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year. We love the value here as well. We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5. We could argue it should be even higher. These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road. Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field. The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH. We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia OVER 58 | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
#313/314 ASA 8* PLAY ON OVER 58 Points – NC State @ Virginia, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET Virginia only scored 23 points last week but that was against Clemson! In fact, the Cavaliers moved the ball very well in that game and had 25 first downs and over 400 yards of offense. The Cavs were done in by two interceptions but that was an impressive effort against one of the best teams/defenses in the nation. Virginia entered that game off a 38-point outburst in a win over Duke. We like what we have seen from the Cavaliers offense early this season. The issue for the Cavs here will not be on offense however. It will be on defense where Virginia has concerns as they try to stop NC State. The Wolfpack are off an upset win at Pittsburgh last week. The Panthers have a very strong defense and their defensive line causes a lot of disruption and yet NC State managed to put up 30 points in their outright win as a two touchdown underdog. The Wolfpack have averaged 33 points per game in their first 3 games this season. However, the NC State defense has issues as they have allowed an average of 39 points per game this season. The key for the Wolfpack is an explosive offense and they got Leary back last week after he missed the first game and only played part of the second game of the season. Leary had over 300 yards passing versus a tough Panthers defense plus threw for the game winning TD (his 4th of the game!) with under a minute to go in the contest. This Wolfpack offense, especially with Leary back under center, is loaded with confidence right now. Even without him they scored plenty in their first two games this season. The issue for NC State here is they have injury issues on defense (a number of them) and are on the road for this one and we just don't see Virginia having any problems scoring in this game. Leary stays hot for the NC State offense but the Cavaliers have been balanced on offense and will keep an injury-depleted Wolfpack defense on its heels. Per our computer math modeling, both teams are likely getting into the 30’s in this one and that means an OVER here! |
|||||||
10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston OVER 58.5 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 8* ON OVER: Tulane Green Wave at Houston Cougars, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #303 |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
#123 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma -7 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We are well aware that recent meetings between these teams have been close games. However, this line was in the double digit range and has dropped to a -7 and we feel we have exceptional line value here with Oklahoma primed for a blowout win. Last season's match-up between these teams was decided by a single point but the Sooners led that game 42-21 late and they won't make the same mistake this season. Yes, the Sooners are off an upset loss to Kansas State but OU had a 4-0 turnover deficit in the game. The Sooners actually had 28 first downs compared to only 10 for the Wildcats and yet they lost the game outright. This is helping to give us great line value this week with Oklahoma. The Sooners piled up 517 yards of offense in that game and now take on an Iowa State team that just allowed 499 yards at TCU last week. The Cyclones tight win over the Horned Frogs had a lot to do with a 2-1 turnover edge and the Frogs had 10 penalties compared to just 3 for Iowa State. The Cyclones also lost their season opener to UL Lafayette by 17 points. In that game they barely eclipsed the 300 yard mark in terms of total offense. The fact is that highly regarded Cyclones QB Brock Purdy hasn't been overly impressive so far this season as his completion percentage is down from the 2 prior seasons and he has thrown for an average of just 178 yards per game. Keep in mind last season Purdy threw for nearly 4,000 yards. The Cyclones simply won't be able to score enough here to keep up with an angry Sooners team that has a dangerous offensive attack and won't be able to be stopped in this one. Lay it! This will be a road rout for Oklahoma |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Navy v. Air Force +7 | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show | |
#132 ASA PLAY 8* ON Air Force +7 over Navy, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Though it was only recently announced that the Mountain West Conference would have a season, it was already determined many weeks ago that Air Force would at least play the other service academies (Navy and Army) this season. In other words, the Falcons have already been preparing to face Navy for many weeks now. What have the Midshipmen been doing? They have been busy prepping for teams like BYU and Tulane as those were their first two opponents. Give the Midshipmen credit for rallying in the 2nd half for the win over the Green Wave two weeks ago. However, lets not forget that up until that point Navy was outscored 79-3 in their first 6 quarters of football this season. Tulane essentially gift-wrapped the 2nd half comeback for the Midshipmen and this Navy team is not nearly the team it was last season. Keep in mind, prior to last season's 11-2 record, Navy was 3-10 the previous season. We're not sold on the Midshipmen this season and we like Air Force getting a full TD here as a home dog. Home field has meant a lot in this rivalry match-up and the Falcons enter this game on a 8-game winning streak. Yes, Air Force has lost a lot of personnel from last season's team but this is not that unusual for a service academy football team. They are use to major turnover of the roster year after year. That said, coach Calhoun and his staff absolutely have this Falcons team ready to go for this season and they've been gearing up for Navy for many weeks now and they know this team very, very well. Air Force knows how to stop the option and, though there are a lot of new faces on the defensive side of the ball, it is all about execution and playing within the system to defend the Navy attack on offense. The Falcons defense will be ready here. On the other side of the ball, other than the QB spot, the Falcons return plenty of experienced personnel and this is a unit that was one of the best in the nation running the ball at 298.5 ypg last year. This line opened up with Air Force at nearly a 3 point favorite and has swung nearly 10 points as the Midshipmen are now a 7 point favorite in this one. This is because of all the roster news surrounding the Falcons including QB Hammond losing his cadet status. The result, in our opinion, is exceptional line value on the home dog Falcons in this one. They match up so well with Navy, they have dominated this series at home in recent years, and they also got a big emotional boost with the recent announcement that there would be a Mountain West season. Already fully prepping for Navy, now the Falcons also ride a wave of emotion as their season schedule just went from 2 games to 10 games and these guys can't wait to take the field against one of their service academy rivals. We expect another home win for the Falcons in this rivalry so of course we feel very comfortable here with grabbing the points here with Air Force! |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky OVER 62 | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
#145/146 ASA PLAY 8* ON OVER 62 Points – Ole Miss @ Kentucky, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We were on the Ole Miss OVER last week when they played host to Florida and we’re right back on it again this week. Lane Kiffin is the new head coach for the Rebels and he knows offense and loves to play fast. They put up over 600 yards (7 YPP) on what was supposed to be a solid Florida defense coming into the season and ran nearly 80 offensive plays. The two teams last week combined for almost 1300 yards and 86 points. Not only that, the teams took some time to get moving offensively as the score was just 7-0 with under 4:00 minutes to go in the first quarter and they STILL almost reached 90 points. While the Ole Miss offense looks very good, the defense obviously did not allowing 51 points with Florida scoring points on all 5 of their 2nd half possessions. For the game, the Gators scored points on 9 of their 11 possessions and had to punt the ball just once the entire game. For the game Florida averaged nearly 9.0 YPP! We look for Kentucky’s offense to be very good this season. Last year the Wildcats offense was run based as they had to move a WR (Bowden) to QB after starter Terry Wilson was injured early in the season. Wilson is back at QB and we expect Kentucky’s offense to be much more balanced this season. Last week they ran the ball 40 times and passed 38 times which is the balance we expected. Last Saturday they only scored 13 points @ Auburn, however they put up nearly 400 yards and they had PLENTY of chances to put points on the board vs a very solid Auburn defense. In fact, the Wildcats threw an interception in the endzone going into score, fumbled at the Auburn 15 yard line, fumbled at the Auburn 30 yard line and turned the ball over twice on downs. So as you can see, they left some serious points off the board last week. Their defense, on the other hand, allowed 29 points and the Tigers pushed into Kentucky territory on 7 of their 10 possessions. Both of these teams are in the top 20 in offensive snaps per game after one week so as we mentioned we expect a fast paced game. Both teams will be facing defenses that are inferior to the opponents they faced last week so offense should be the name of the game here. These 2 SEC opponents have met just once since the 2011 season and that was a 37-34 final (71 total points) in 2017. With Kentucky favored by 6 and the total set at 61.5, the oddsmakers expect a 34-28 type final here. We agree the Cats will get into the 30’s however we do not see Kentucky holding Ole Miss below 30. Both teams in the 30’s mean an OVER here! |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Missouri +13 v. Tennessee | 12-35 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
#115 ASA PLAY 8* ON Missouri +13 over Tennessee, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri opened up the season with a loss but it was to be expected as they played Alabama last week. The Tigers defense showed great improvement last season and even though Missouri has a new head coach (Drinkwitz) this season, they have the same defensive coordinator (Walters). Last year the Tigers allowed only 19.4 points per game and their pass defense (179.3 ypg) ranked among the best in the nation. We like double digit dogs that are solid defensively and Missouri certainly fits the bill in that regard. Also, the fact they had to begin their season with a very tough match-up against the Crimson Tide means the Tigers will be well-prepared to face anything the Volunteers throw at them here. Missouri catches Tennessee off a 4-point win over South Carolina. The Vols barely snuck by the Gamecocks thanks in part to a 2-0 edge in turnovers as the yardage and first downs in that game were very close to equal. That said, we feel this is far too many points for the Volunteers to be laying here and, in fact, Tennessee only has 3 ATS covers the last dozen times they have been a home favorite! These teams met last season in Game 11 and with each team sitting at 5-5 on the year. The Vols won that game and it made them bowl eligible as they went on to a 8-5 season (including 1 point win in bowl game versus Indiana). The Tigers home loss to the Volunteers cost them a winning season and there was no bowl for Missouri. Though they may not get full payback here in the form of an outright win, the Tigers will stay within single digits in this game per our computer math modeling. Look for a very tight game likely decided by a single score margin. Grab the points with Missouri |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 | Top | 31-27 | Push | 0 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
#406 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON South Carolina +4 over Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of high expectations placed on them coming into the season. The Volunteers, including their 1-point win in the Gator Bowl over Indiana, have won 6 straight games and are ranked 16th in the nation entering this contest. That 6-game winning streak started with a big home win over South Carolina last season. However, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp entered that contest having beaten Tennessee 7 straight times and that sets up this home dog revenge situation perfectly for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is flying under the radar a bit early this season because they are known for solid, physical defensive play but Muschamp's teams also are known for struggling to put many points on the board. That should change this season. We like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo (former head coach at Colorado State) has former Rams QB Collin Hill to work with. He is a graduate transfer and won the starting job from Ryan Hilinski. Of course Hill knows Bobo's offense well and that will allow the Gamecocks revamped offense to hit the ground running with Bobo's play-calling and Hill's leadership as a veteran with experience in this offense. Hill's college career started in 2016 at Colorado State so he has a lot of experience under his belt! Last year's match-up between these teams saw the Gamecocks lead 21-17 at the half but they were on the road at Tennessee and playing with an anemic offense and watched the Volunteers outscore them 24-0 the rest of the way. This match-up will play out much differently. Of course the ranked (and hyped) Vols are attracting attention from the marketplace but they also have had issues leading up to this game because of covid-19 cases. This has resulted in Tennessee not being able to have consistently scheduled practices. Now they go on the road playing right into the teeth of revenge and there is a very positive atmosphere right now in South Carolina as the team seems rejuvenated with the change at offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks also have stability on the other side of the ball with Travaris Robinson continuing as the defensive coordinator - a role he was hired for in December 2015 - and he has plenty of experience working with Muschamp. Upset alert in this one! We like South Carolina plus the points here. |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Texas State +18 v. Boston College | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
#451 ASA 8* PLAY ON Texas State +18 over Boston College, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - Anytime we look at a large underdog in college football, we like to have a team that can score points. That way they are always in the game, even if they get down big the back door is open. That’s what we have here. Texas State can score points. They are playing their 4th game of the season here vs BC and this team is averaging 37 PPG on 431 YPG and 6.1 YPP. They have 2 very solid QB’s in McBride and Vitt who’ve both played key roles already this year. McBride has been out due to Covid issues but could be back here. If not, Vitt has thrown for over 600 yards and put up 86 points in his 2 starts this year. Texas State played a very good SMU team to open the season and gave them a scare almost pulling the upset before losing 31-24. This offense is definitely capable of hanging in this game. While TSU is playing their 4th game of the season, this will be BC’s 2nd game. They upset Duke last week 26-6 so coming off a huge ACC win we’d expect a bit of a ho-hum performance here from the Eagles. On top of that, this BC team has a big ACC game on deck as they host North Carolina next Saturday. The Eagles win last week over Duke was a bit deceiving. The Devils were their own worst enemy with a number of mistakes that left points off the board. Duke was picked off at the BC 19 yard line, fumbled at the BC 4 yard line, fumbled at their own 12 yard line, fumbled at the BC 14 yard line, threw a pick at the BC 33 yard line, AND missed a FG. As you can see, the 20-point win by Boston College was not as it may have looked. The Eagles lost their battering Ram RB Dillon to the NFL (1,685 YR last year) and had only 84 yards rushing on 2 YPC last week. That’s a red flag for a team that has been a physical, run the ball team, over the last few seasons. This is also a spot the Eagles are simply not used to and that is laying a lot of points. The last time they were laying 17 points or more was back in 2018 and that was vs FCS Holy Cross. Just a bad spot for BC and playing in front of zero fans at home. We’ll grab the points here. |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Florida v. Ole Miss OVER 57 | 51-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER: Florida Gators at Ole Miss Rebels, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #419 |
|||||||
09-24-20 | UAB v. South Alabama +7 | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) over UAB Blazers, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #418 |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt. |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Texas State v. UL-Monroe OVER 61 | 38-17 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 52 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER: Texas State Bobcats at UL Monroe Warhawks, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #127 |
|||||||
09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
#403 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Coastal Carolina +7 over Kansas, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Coastal went into Kansas last year and upset the Jayhawks 12-7 as a TD underdog. While some may think KU will have extra motivation here after that loss, they are simply not good enough to be laying a full TD in this or really any game. Last year was no fluke. The Chanticleers played KU toe to toe and actually had more first downs, more total yardage, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession edge. They return 14 starters this year including many key players and we expect them to be better this season than they were last. Their record last year was just 5-7, however they lost 4 of those 7 games by 7 points or less so they could have easily had a better season. They ran the ball very well last year (35th nationally) and return 4 starters on the OLine along with top RB Marable who ran for 148 yards vs Kansas and over 1,000 on the season. We expect more of the same this year vs a Jayhawk defense that ranked 124th vs the run last year allowing 225 YPG. Kansas lost their QB, 3 starting offensive lineman, their 3 top defensive lineman and their best cover corner and 2 starting safeties. Their defense last year gave up at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games and now with a number of new faces it’s tough to see a drastic improvement if any. The offense may take some time to gel as well as the QB’s vying for the starting job have attempted a grand total of 19 passes combined in their careers. Lastly, and something we see as a big but overlooked situation is the fact that CC was able to get in ALL 15 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a KU team that has won just 6 of their last 59 games SU (vs FBS opponents) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than a TD. No thanks. We like Coastal Carolina here. |
|||||||
09-12-20 | Arkansas State +13 v. Kansas State | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
#427 ASA 8* PLAY ON Arkansas State +13 over Kansas State, Saturday at 12 PM ET Arkansas State is off a loss at Memphis last week by 13 points but they were only outgained by 78 yards in that game. It was a bit of a deceiving final score and they are particularly dangerous on offense because they have the option of two solid quarterbacks in Bonner and Hatcher. Both saw some time under center last week and, though RB Murray did not play last week, their top 3 running backs in that game totaled 136 yards on 25 carries and were led by senior RB Jamal Jones. The QB's combined to throw for nearly 300 yards and though Bonner threw two picks in that game a repeat is unlikely. Bonner had 10 TDs against just 1 INT last season. The fact is the Red Wolves have a very talented and veteran group on offense and that is what makes them especially dangerous as a big dog. Arkansas State is a hard team to put away and their experience factor gives them a huge edge here as they return one of the more experienced teams in the nation while Kansas State ranks as one of the least experienced FBS programs this year. The Wildcats are the better team defensively when comparing these teams. However, on the other side of the ball, Kansas State lost nearly all of its starting offense. They return a solid QB in Skylar Thompson but nearly all the other starters from last season's offensive unit are gone and that includes the entire offensive line! New offensive lines generally take awhile to play their best together and that will surely be the case here especially with how disjointed the 2020 offseason was for these players. Adding to that factor is a big but potentially overlooked situation and that is the fact that Arkansas State was able to get in 11 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas State did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a Wildcats team that is just 6-5 their last 11 games and only 2 of those wins came by more than 7 points (and 1 of those victories came by just 10 points) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than 10 points. This is asking a lot when one considers the Red Wolves also have the game in hand edge too as a result of playing last week. We like Arkansas State here. |
|||||||
09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Brigham Young Cougars at Navy Midshipmen, Monday at 8 ET: Game #244 |
|||||||
09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army West Point Black Knights (-) over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET: Game #242 |
|||||||
09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-) over South Alabama Jaguars, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #236 |
|||||||
01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Clemson (+) over LSU, Monday at 8 PM ET - After watching what happened during semi final weekend, we knew we’d get some value on Clemson in the Championship game. We just didn’t think it would be this much value. Clemson was favored by -2 with the line rising to -3 versus an Ohio State team that many felt was the best team in the country for the entire season, better than LSU. Now that same Clemson team is getting anywhere from 5 to 6 points versus LSU just a few weeks later? This is an absolute buy low (Clemson), sell high (LSU), spot for us. Most bettors are greatly affected by what they see most recently. They watched LSU roll over an Oklahoma team that in hindsight really had no right being in that game. They also watched Clemson get behind a great Ohio State team and battle their way back to a close win. So based on that LSU is going to crush Clemson right? A massive 80% of wagers have come in on LSU because of that recency bias. We love taking the contrarian viewpoint to go against the public here. Let’s first remember that Clemson’s opponent (Ohio State) was light years better than LSU’s opponent (Oklahoma). We liked the Sooners getting 2 TD’s in that game, however in hindsight they had a number of close games (5 Big 12 wins by 7 points or less) in a conference that simply turned out to be not very good. The Big12 won a grand total of ONE bowl game with 5 losses. A very impressive win for the Tigers but we’re pretty certain Clemson or Ohio State would have done the same thing if facing Oklahoma. We were impressed with Clemson’s resolve getting down 16-0 against the Buckeyes and rallying to win with a late TD drive. We’ve heard the narrative that OSU outplayed Clemson in the game and deserved to win. We disagree. While OSU did outgain the Tigers by 99 yards they also ran 23 more offensive snaps and still lost. On a yards per play basis Clemson outgained Ohio State 6.7 YPP to 6.0 YPP. As we stated a few weeks ago, the Clemson players and coaches are very familiar with this situation. This will be the 4th time in the last 5 years they’ve been in the National Championship game – winning 2 of those. This is eerily similar to last year’s National Championship when Alabama was a 6-point favorite and came in with an unbeatable offense averaging 48 PPG (same as LSU this year) and very few gave Clemson a chance. Of course the Tigers went on to roast the Crimson Tide 44-16 outgaining Bama 7.5 YPP to 6.0 YPP. LSU QB Joe Burrow is obviously outstanding. But let’s not forget Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is now 25-0 as a starter, has a National Championship under his belt, and is considered a generational talent that will almost positively be the #1 pick in the NFL draft when eligible. The underdog in the National Championship is now 6-0 ATS the last 6 years and 14-7 ATS the last 21 seasons. The oddsmakers sent out lines about a month ago on potential National Championship match ups and in this one they had Clemson as a 3-point favorite. Now they are getting nearly a full TD based almost solely on the results from their semi final games. Remember, the oddsmakers felt Clemson was 2 to 3 points better than OSU and they were correct with Clemson winning by 6. So if OSU would have won their game vs Clemson, based on the number versus the Tigers they would be between a 7 to 9 point dog against LSU. I’m sure you see our point that LSU is now overvalued. Are they a TD better than the two other teams in the country considered in the top 3? No way. We anticipate this game being very close. Getting points is a bonus and gives us the opportunity to win even if Clemson loses the game. We don’t think they will. We’ll call for Clemson to win their 3rd National Championship on 4 years. |
|||||||
01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -102 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #280 |
|||||||
01-02-20 | Tennessee v. Indiana OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Indiana Hoosiers vs Tennessee Volunteers, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #293 |
|||||||
01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (-) over Boston College, Thursday at 3 PM ET - We really like this situation for a solid Cincy team. The Bearcats have just 3 losses on the season with one coming vs Ohio State and they lost their final 2 games of the season both at Memphis on back to back weekends. Those are far from terrible losses as those 2 teams combined for a 25-1 regular season record. OSU is obviously one of the top few teams in the nation and Memphis, who had 1 loss on the season, gave a very good Penn State team all they could handle in their bowl game. Both of their final 2 losses @ Memphis were games that went to the wire and the yardage was almost dead even in both. One of those losses Cincinnati was forced to use freshman QB Bryant because starting QB Ridder was injured. Speaking of Ridder, his shoulder was not 100% down the stretch and the Bearcat passing game was not great because of that. However, with the extended time off our word is that Ridder is back to 100% which will make this offense much more dynamic. For comparison’s sake, if we throw out the OSU game in which Cincy was shutout, they averaged 37 PPG when Ridder was healthy. Over the final 4 games when his shoulder was not right, they put up only 21 PPG. We expect them to have a very good day offensively vs a BC defense that ranks 125th nationally in total defense allowing 481 YPG. The BC offense relies very heavily on the run. After starting QB Brown went out with a season ending injury in mid October, the Eagles have averaged only 131 YPG passing. They were successful running the ball this year (267 YPG) the problem is, RB Dillon was the main reason for that as he rushed for 1900 yards and 15 TD’s. He is not playing in this game as he prepares for the NFL draft which subtracts easily their top offensive weapon. BC is also in transition as head coach Adazzio has already been fired, offensive coordinator Bajakian has moved onto Northwestern, and WR coach Gunnell is coaching the team as they wait for Ohio State DC Hafley to take over after this game. Cincy is excited to be playing a Power 5 opponent, they have the MUCH better defense, and no turmoil with their coaches. Lay the TD here with Cincinnati. |
|||||||
12-31-19 | Texas v. Utah UNDER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Texas Longhorns vs Utah Utes, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #262 |
|||||||
12-31-19 | Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
#255 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida State (+) over Arizona State, Tuesday at 2 PM ET - ASU will be playing this game without their 2 top offensive weapons as RB Benjamin (1,100 yards rushing and 10 TD’s) and WR Aiyuk (1,200 yards receiving and 8 TD’s) are both sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Their backup RB’s have COMBINED for only 85 yards on the ground this season. For a team that ranks 89th in total offense and 94th in scoring offense, they can ill afford to lose their top 2 playmakers. Many may expect that FSU might be distracted with their coaching situation but we argue that ASU is the team that will be at a bigger disadvantage in that regard. FSU fired Willie Taggart but the interim coach Odell Haggins has been on the Seminole staff since 1994 and coached their final 3 regular season games this year. He also led them to a bowl win in 2017 in a similar situation. The players really like Haggins and he’ll be on new head coach Mike Norvell’s staff next year. ASU, on the other hand, will be playing this game without their offensive coordinator (who was fired at the end of the regular season) AND their defensive coordinator left 10 days ago to take the head coaching job at New Mexico. FSU will also be without their top RB Akers, however they are more experienced behind him with his back up Laborn with 300 yards rushing and 4 TD’s on the season. FSU QB Blackmon has thrown for nearly 5,000 career yards and 40 TD’s should find plenty of openings vs an ASU pass defense that ranks 114th in pass defense. Blackmon will also have his full complement of weapons, including top WR Terry who has 1,800 yards receiving and 16 TD’s over the last 2 seasons. Arizona State has been a money burner in the favorite role going 0-8 ATS their last 8 in that role. This year alone they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite losing half of those games outright. FSU is happy to be back in a bowl after missing the post-season last year for the first time since 1981. We expect them to play well here and we feel an upset brewing. |
|||||||
12-30-19 | Illinois v. California -6 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
#250 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON California (-) over Illinois, Monday at 4:00 PM ET - We obviously following Illinois very closely being in Big 10 country. While they step into this game with a 6-6 record, this is NOT a .500 type team. They were extremely fortunate to get wins in a number of games this year. They beat Wisconsin, but were drastically outgained and caught the Badgers coming off Iowa with OSU next. Even with that Wisconsin led basically the entire game and made a number of key mistakes in the final 6:00 minutes to lose that one. Versus Michigan State they trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter and had everything possible go their way in that 3 point win despite getting outgained by more than 100 yards. The Illini were rolled 29-10 in their season finale vs a Northwestern team that hadn’t won a conference game entering that contest. In conference play, this Illinois team was outgained by nearly 400 yards vs Nebraska, by nearly 300 vs a poor Northwestern offense, by 239 vs Minnesota, by 233 vs Michigan, and by more than 100 vs Wisconsin and Michigan State. You get the point. For the conference season the Illini averaged 290 YPG while giving up 440 YPG. In non-conference play they lost at home to Eastern Michigan, struggled to beat a terrible UConn team that finished the year 2-10, and topped Akron who might be the worst team in all of college football. While we feel Illinois is drastically overvalued, this Cal team is undervalued in our opinion. A glance at the full season offensive stats doesn’t tell the entire story. Sure the Bears struggled offensively, however, when QB Chase Garbers started and played the entire game (he was injured for about half the season) this California team was a perfect 6-0. With Garbers at QB, the Bears started the season 4-0. He was injured in the 5th game vs Arizona State with the score tied 7-7 and they went on to lose that game. They were 1-5 SU without him under center (including the ASU loss) and Garbers came back to start the final 2 games which were wins @ Stanford and @ UCLA putting up over 400 total yards in each of those games. They averaged 25 PPG with Garbers under center and 15 PPG when he was unable to play. This Cal defense is good enough to hold Illinois in check. As much heat as Cal’s offense received this year for being lethargic, they averaged more YPG than the Illinois offense did this year. The Illini struggle to move the ball through the air averaging just 177 YPG (110th nationally) and the will have problems getting their running game going vs a Cal defense that ranks 26th vs the rush. Cal’s defense played very well against some potent offenses this year holding Oregon to 17 points, Washington St to 20 points, UCLA to 18 points and Ole Miss to 20 points. We have advantages on offense and defense in this game and its being played in San Francisco which is only 14 miles from the Cal campus giving them the location edge as well. We have a feeling the Illinois, playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2014, might just be happy to have gotten to this point. Cal, on the other hand, is very focused on winning this one after losing in OT vs TCU in their bowl game last year. The Bears win and cover this one. |
|||||||
12-28-19 | Oklahoma +14 v. LSU | Top | 28-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
#241 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma (+) over LSU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This Oklahoma team and their head coach Lincoln Riley understand what this College Football playoff appearance is all about. That’s because they were here last year in a very similar situation. The Sooners, the #4 seed a year ago, came in as 13.5 points underdogs vs Alabama who was the # 1 seed. OU lost that game by 11 points but picked up the cover. They did get down by 21 points at one point, however when an offense like OU’s is getting 2 TD’s, they are never out of it and they proved that last year. They put up nearly 7.0 YPP on one of the best defenses in the country last year in this game. Now they face a potent LSU offense, however the Tiger defense is not nearly the caliber of last year’s Alabama defense. We see a similar type game this year. The Sooner defense is underrated this year. Last year they entered this game allowing a ridiculous 454 YPG. This season they are giving up just 331 YPG, a full 120+ yards better than last year, and they’ve allowed an average of just 278 YPG over their final 4 games of the season. On the year the OU defense is allowing almost 100 YPG less than their opponents are averaging. While we don’t expect them to shut down a potent LSU offense, we also don’t think the Tigers will be able to move the ball at will as many believe. Offensively the Sooners have scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year and they’ve topped 40 in 8 of their 12 games this year. Sooner QB Jalen Hurts has tremendous experience playing in college football’s version of the Final 4 as this will be his 4th straight year playing in the college football playoff (played with Alabama the previous 3 seasons). LSU’s coaches and players have not played in playoff which we feel gives a bit of an edge to OU in the experience aspect. The Tigers are very good but we don’t think they should be a full 2 TD favorite in a game of this magnitude. They did beat UGA by 27 in the SEC Championship game, however vs the other top tier SEC teams LSU was not dominant beating Bama by 5, Auburn by 3, and Florida by 14 with the last 2 games mentioned coming at home. Oklahoma’s offense is definitely good enough to keep up in this game and we expect them stay within this lofty number. |
|||||||
12-28-19 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Notre Dame | 9-33 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
#237 ASA PLAY 9* ON Iowa State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 12 PM ET - ISU comes into this game with a 7-5 record but they are much better than that mark. Three of those losses came at the hands of Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa (all top 16 teams in the final college playoff rankings) by a combined 4 points. Their other 2 losses to Oklahoma State and KSU, the Cyclones were tied with both in the 4th quarter. Despite only finishing 2 games above .500, Iowa State was +100 YPG and +9 PPG on the season. This team was very close to having 9 or 10 wins this season. We expect ISU to be very motivated facing a national brand (Notre Dame) as well as they fact they enter this one off their worst performance of the season (a 10 point loss @ KSU). Notre Dame enters on a 5 game winning streak but the competition was pretty average down the stretch. Three of those wins came vs teams that finished at .500 or below and another was a 1-point home win over Va Tech with the Irish scoring a TD in the final seconds to win. Their lone impressive win down the stretch was vs Navy. The Notre Dame defensive stats vs the pass are impressive. However, we feel they’ll have trouble slowing down an Iowa State passing game that ranks 8th in the nation under QB Purdy. Notre Dame’s pass defense stats are a bit misleading as they have faced just ONE team ranked in the top 35 this season in pass offense. That was USC and the Trojans put up 430 total yards on the Irish. It was also USC QB’s Slovis first game back after an injury and he passed for 255 yards and 2 TD’s in that game (Notre Dame 30-27 win). On the other side of the ball, we feel Iowa State’s defense is underrated. They allowed just 362 YPG despite facing a plethora of potent offenses in the Big 12. Taking points in ISU games has been profitable this year as the dog has covered 8 of 11. Our power ratings have this closer to a pick-em game and we’re getting over a FG which is a lot considering many of ISU’s games vs top notch opponents have come down to the wire. The Cyclones lost their bowl game last year 28-26 vs Washington State and head coach Matt Campbell has them focused on getting a win this year. We’ll call this one close and take the points with Iowa State. |
|||||||
12-27-19 | Washington State v. Air Force OVER 68 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Air Force Falcons vs Washington State Cougars, Friday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #235 |
|||||||
12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa OVER 51.5 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Iowa Hawkeyes vs USC Trojans, Friday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #233 |
|||||||
12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -11 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Eastern Michigan Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #225 |
|||||||
12-23-19 | Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Central Florida Knights, Monday at 2:30 PM ET: Game #211 |
|||||||
12-21-19 | Florida International +1.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida International Panthers (+) over Arkansas State Red Wolves, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET: Game #213 |
|||||||
12-21-19 | SMU -6.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 28-52 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* SMU Mustangs (+) over Florida Atlantic Owls, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #211 |
|||||||
12-20-19 | Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Buffalo Bulls (-) over Charlotte 49ers, Friday at 2 PM ET: Game #201 |
|||||||
12-07-19 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -15.5 | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 1 m | Show | |
(FIRST HALF LINE) ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Wisconsin Badgers, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #120 (FIRST HALF LINE) |
|||||||
12-07-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #110 |
|||||||
12-07-19 | Miami-OH v. Central Michigan -6 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (-) over Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #106 |
|||||||
11-30-19 | North Carolina -10.5 v. NC State | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #359 |
|||||||
11-30-19 | Oregon State v. Oregon OVER 65 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #431 |
|||||||
11-30-19 | Ohio State -8 v. Michigan | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Michigan Wolverines, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #367 |
|||||||
11-29-19 | Washington State +8 v. Washington | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Friday at 4 PM ET: Game #339 |
|||||||
11-29-19 | Cincinnati v. Memphis -11.5 | 24-34 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Memphis Tigers (-) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Friday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #332 |
|||||||
11-23-19 | TCU +18 v. Oklahoma | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #137 |
|||||||
11-23-19 | Houston v. Tulsa -3 | 24-14 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
#194 ASA PLAY ON Tulsa (-) over Houston, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 3-7 records however Tulsa’s 3-7 feels much different than Houston’s 3-7. Tulsa comes off a bye and with some serious momentum after beating a very good UCF team 34-31 as a 15 point dog 2 weeks ago. That was a big win for this program that had come so close a number of times this year vs top tier AAC competition. They’ve played a brutally tough AAC slate facing the top 6 teams in the conference according to our power rankings. Their conference games this year have come against Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane, SMU, and Navy. All 6 of those teams have records above .500 on the season the their combined conference record is 28-8. Tulsa took Memphis (5-1 in the AAC) to the wire before losing 42-41 on a FG as time expired. They led SMU (5-1 in the AAC) by 21 points in the 2nd half and lost in OT. They had Cincinnati (6-0 in conference play) on the ropes late down 17-13 late in the 4th quarter but turned the ball over on each of their final 2 possessions in the loss. You get the point. This team is much better than their record. They are also still giving full effort as proven by their win here over UCF 2 weeks ago when Tulsa already knew they could not make it to a bowl game. Now with two weeks of positive energy and solid practices leading into this home finale, we expect them to play very well. Houston is on the opposite end of the spectrum. They played a huge home game vs Memphis last week and jumped out to a 17-7 lead but got boat raced from that point on with the tigers winning 45-27. Houston had only 256 total yards (531 for Memphis) and their last TD came on a blocked punt return. After the game Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen admitted after the game his team ran out of gas around halftime. That’s not a good sign for a team that has to get back up and go on the road this week. On top of that, the loss eliminated Houston from bowl consideration and for a program that has been a to a bowl game for the last 6 seasons, we can see them being flat this weekend. On top of that, they just aren’t very good this year with a 1-5 conference record and their only win coming by just 7 points vs a terrible UConn team. While Tulsa was playing the top tier teams in the league tight for the most part, Houston was not. They lost to Memphis by 18, UCF by 15, and Cincinnati by 15. We realize Tulsa QB Zach Smith is questionable here but we are handicapping this game as if he were out. His backup Seth Boomer started for Tulsa last year and has thrown 200 career passes for 1400 yards so he has plenty of experience. Boomer also stepped in for Smith and played the entire 2nd half of the UCF game and led the Hurricane to a 34-31 win outscoring UCF 17-3 while he was in the game. If Smith ends up playing in this game, that’s simply a bonus. If not, we still love the spot for Tulsa. We look for a big win here. |
|||||||
11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Texas Longhorns (+) over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #177 |
|||||||
11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | 39-14 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
#122 ASA PLAY ON Indiana (+) over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a terrible spot for Michigan playing a much improved Indiana team. The Wolverines are off their state rivalry game vs Michigan State and they have their game of the year on deck hosting Ohio State next week. Indiana comes in with a solid 7-3 record with 2 of their losses coming down to the wire (@ PSU & @ MSU) and they only blowout loss coming at the hands of Ohio State which is no surprise. Last week they had Penn State in a very similar situation to Michigan this week and nearly pulled off the road upset. Penn State was coming off a huge game @ Minnesota with Ohio State next. IU lost the game by a TD but outgained the Nittany Lions by 100 yards & put up 462 total yards on a very good PSU defense. That game was on the road and now they get to play a similar spot at home. Michigan has played only one road game in the last month and that was @ Maryland who has been trending downward since mid September. The Wolverines are 2-2 SU on the road and this game will give them their biggest challenge since losing at Penn State in mid October. The Hoosiers should have some confidence facing Michigan at home as the last 3 years this game has been fairly tight with the Wolverines winning by 11, 10, and 7 points. This is IU’s home finale and they don’t have any pressure on them as they are already bowl eligible. We expect them to play very well and they’ve proven they can score with 27 or more points in every game but one (Ohio State) this season. We don’t see Michigan being able to pull away in this game. Also, do the Wolverines have much to play for here? Not really. Their chances to win the Big Ten East are pretty much out the window. If OSU beats PSU this weekend, the Buckeyes clinch the title. If PSU beats OSU, all the Nittany Lions have to do is beat Rutgers next week and they clinch the title. Michigan is on the outside looking in and they have much bigger fish to fry next week facing Ohio State. Take the points in what we think will be a very close game. |
|||||||
11-23-19 | Penn State v. Ohio State -18 | 17-28 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
FIRST HALF play. Of course if you do not have access to first half line than play the FULL 60 but this is a FIRST HALF line play - #212 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State FIRST HALF LINE (-) over Penn State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We have released 2 first half line plays this year and won both. One of those was this Ohio State team @ Nebraska where they led 38-0 at half. This is a game where we do like the Bucks, however laying 18.5 for the full game is a bit too risky. It’s possible they could be up 24+ and a late meaningless score by PSU could do us in. However, we’re confident they’ll get out to a fast start and look to bury the Nittany Lions early as they do with every team they play. In fact, in their Big Ten games this year, OSU has outscored their opponents 206 to 26 for an average halftime score of 29.5 to 3.7. That’s Big Ten only. Add in their non-conference games and the halftime margins go up. Penn State comes in overrated in our books. They have a 9-1 record but they have been outgained in half of their games this season (5). While OSU is simply destroying every Big Ten opponent (every conference win by at least 24 points), Penn State has had 4 conference wins by 7 points or less. Last week they held on to beat Indiana at home winning by just 7. Again, we like OSU to roll in this game but are more confident they’ll jump on this PSU team in the first half and go into the break with a substantial lead. Take Ohio State (-) in the first half. |
|||||||
11-22-19 | Colorado State v. Wyoming -6.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Wyoming Cowboys (-) over Colorado State Rams, Friday at 9:30 PM ET: Game #114 |
|||||||
11-16-19 | Minnesota v. Iowa -3 | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #336 |
|||||||
11-16-19 | Wyoming +5.5 v. Utah State | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353 |
|||||||
11-16-19 | Texas +7 v. Iowa State | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Longhorns (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #377 |
|||||||
11-16-19 | Florida v. Missouri UNDER 51 | Top | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER: Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #390 |
|||||||
11-14-19 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Pittsburgh | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (+) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #313 |
|||||||
11-12-19 | Western Michigan +1 v. Ohio | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Western Michigan Broncos (-) over Ohio University Bobcats, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET: Game #303 |
|||||||
11-09-19 | Clemson -32 v. NC State | 55-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show | |
ASA FIRST HALF LINE PLAY ON 9* Clemson Tigers (FIRST HALF LINE) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #117 |
|||||||
11-09-19 | Missouri +16.5 v. Georgia | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 44 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Missouri Tigers (+) over Georgia Bulldogs, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #181 |
|||||||
11-09-19 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -8.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 57 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Wisconsin Badgers(-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #194 |
|||||||
11-09-19 | Kansas State v. Texas -7 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Longhorns (+) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184 |
|||||||
11-09-19 | Stanford v. Colorado OVER 55 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Stanford Cardinal at Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3 PM ET: Game #149 |
|||||||
11-02-19 | Virginia +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #337 |
|||||||
11-02-19 | Pittsburgh -7 v. Georgia Tech | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #317 |
|||||||
11-02-19 | Miami-FL v. Florida State -3 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Florida State Seminoles (-) over Miami Hurricanes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #388 |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.