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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
#246 ASA PLAY ON 8* Duke -3 over UCF, Wednesday at 2 PM ET - Duke is thrilled to be here and highly motivated to win this game. The Devils haven’t been in a bowl game since 2018 and they drastically outplayed their projections under first year head coach Mike Elko. Unlike many teams that have a laundry list of guys opting out and heading to the transfer portal, Duke have just 3 players in the portal and none were significant contributors. This team had a season total set at 3 wins and they step into this game with an 8-4 record having won 4 of their last 5. Duke has also outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they were 3-1 ATS vs the other bowl teams they faced this year and outgained 3 of those 4 teams as well. UCF lost by 17 points vs Tulane in the AAC Championship game so instead of playing a game vs USC on January 2nd, they are stuck in this game which falls well below where they expected to be this season. Unlike Duke, the Golden Knights have been heading the wrong direction failing to cover their last 3 games by a combined 43 points. In those final 3 they lost to a 4-8 Navy team as a 2 TD favorite, nearly lost to a bad USF team as a 20 point favorite (UCF scored a TD late to win by 7) and got walloped by Tulane and outgained by 240 yards. The Knights starting QB Rhys is really banged up with multiple injuries and may not play which would leave them with a freshman QB who is 3rd straight because their back up already left the program. If Rhys plays, he’s nowhere near 100%. On top of that, their top WR O’Keefe (73 receptions) left the program and their offensive coordinator took the same job at UNC. Too much going on with UCF for them to be fully focused here while Duke is more than ready. Lay the small number. |
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12-27-22 | Oklahoma State v. Wisconsin UNDER 43 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 36 m | Show |
#243/244 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin, Tuesday at 10:15 PM ET - Lots of uncertainty in this game with tons of opt outs and transfer portal situations for each team. We do know this, neither starting QB will take the field and their back ups aren’t great. Wisconsin will most likely split time between senior Chase Wolf who has thrown 31 career passes and freshman Myles Burkett who played briefly in 2 games this season attempting 5 total passes. The Badgers will rely heavily on their running game, as per usual, and their top RB Allen is still banged up. Oklahoma State will go with either Gunnar Gundy or Garret Rangel who combined to complete barely 50% of their passes with more interceptions than TD’s this season when in relief of starter Spencer Sanders who is out here. When Gundy was in the game vs Big 12 opponents OSU ran 54 total plays for 177 yards (3.2 YPP) and scored 10 points. Rangel started and finished 2 Big 12 games and OSU averaged 17.5 PPG (both losses) in those 2 games vs Kansas & WVU who both rank outside the top 100 in total defense. Now they are facing a Wisconsin team that is always good defensively and will be playing with a little extra motivation as their DC Jim Leonhard will be coaching his final game for the Badgers. OSU scored 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and will struggle vs a Wisconsin defense ranked 13th nationally. The Badgers put up 16 points or fewer in each of their last 3 games and that was with starting QB Mertz in the line up. The Cowboy defense struggled early but played better down the stretch leading to 5 straight unders to close out the regular season. Their overall numbers aren’t great defensively, however they were facing high powered Big 12 attacks week in and week out and this Wisconsin team is nowhere near that especially at the QB position. We expect both offenses to struggle and we’ll take the Under. |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest v. Missouri OVER 58.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
#231/232 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 58.5 Points – Wake Forest vs Missouri, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - This game is being played in Tampa and the weather looks decent with temps in the low 50’s at kickoff and light winds. Wake’s offense is easily the strength of their team. The average 37 PPG and they’ve been held under 30 points only twice this season vs NC State & Louisville. Those are 2 top 35 defenses and Wake moved the ball well on both (400+ yards in both games) but had a ridiculous 11 turnovers in those 2 games alone which took away MANY scoring chances. Even with that the Deacs still scored 21 points in both of those games. They are facing a solid Mizzou defense that ranks near those 2 stop units, however the Tigers will be depleted on that side of the ball. Both starting DE’s who lead the team in sacks will not play in this game and they are very thin at safety with a few not playing. The Tigers had solid defensive numbers but when they played high potent teams they struggled at times and the teams they slowed down were the lower tier offensive teams in the SEC (Vandy, Auburn, Kentucky). Wake’s defense was not good. They rank 94th overall, 95th in scoring defense, and 116th vs the pass. They’ve allowed at least 30 points in 5 straight games and 7 of their 11 games vs FBS opponents this season. Missouri’s QB Cook is a duel threat (2500 yards passing and 550 rushing) and WF has struggled with those type of signal callers. Clemson, Louisville, Syracuse, Liberty, and UNC all have duel threat QB’s and they torched WF for an average of 41 PPG. The Deacons had only 3 totals all season set below 60 and 2 of those went well Over the total and the one that went under was close (under by 3 points) and should have gone Over based on the total yardage. We confident that WF will score in this game and Mizzou will be able to keep up vs a poor defense. Over. |
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12-22-22 | Air Force v. Baylor OVER 43 | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* - #227/228 OVER 43 Air Force vs. Baylor, Thursday 7:30 PM ET - We are betting Over on this game and expect both teams to get into the 20’s. The number itself stood out to us immediately when we looked at past results for both teams and the lines that were posted on those contests. For instance, Air Force played San Diego State the last game of the season and the O/U was set at 43. San Diego State isn’t on the same planet offensively as Baylor as the Aztecs were 109th in scoring (21PPG), 116th in total YPG and 119th in passing. AF also played Colorado State at the end of the season, who is worse than SDST offensively and that O/U was also 43. The Bears averaged just under 34PPG with an offense that ranked 37th in YPG gained, 61st in passing and 33rd in rushing. Baylor played in one game this season that had a Total below 52 and that was against Iowa State. ISU’s defense is significantly better than an overrated Falcons defense. Air Force is 1st in the nation defensively in YPG allowed 1st against the pass, 8th versus the run and allowed just 13.3PPG. BUT the vast majority of the teams they’ve faced have been horrible on offense making the Falcons defensive statistics very misleading. Baylor wasn't as good defensively this season (recently fired D-coordinator) after allowing 26.6PPG on the season and being near average in most defensive categories. The Bears allowed 29 plus points in the last four games of the season. |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama v. Western Kentucky OVER 57 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
#225/226 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Western Kentucky vs South Alabama, Wed at 9 PM ET - This game is being played in the Louisiana Super Dome so we’re getting perfect conditions for scoring. WKU has one of the most prolific offenses in the nation ranking 10th in total offense and 2nd in passing offense while averaging 36 PPG. QB Austin Reed entered the transfer portal but after only a few days decided to come back to the Hilltoppers so he will play in this game. He’s thrown for over 4,000 yards with 36 TD’s this season. USA’s defense is rated very highly (11th nationally) but they’ve played an extremely easy slate of offenses this season. The average ranking of the offenses they faced this season was 82nd and they faced 5 offense ranked outside the top 100. The 2 top tier offenses South Alabama faced were UCLA and Georgia Southern who scored 32 and 31 points respectively. As far as pass offenses go, the Jags only faced 1 ranked inside the top 30 and now they take on the 2nd best passing offense in the nation. South Alabama doesn’t get much pub for their offense but they were very good. They averaged 32 PPG on the season and they scored at least 27 points in every game but 2 this year. They only defense that really slowed them down was Troy who was ranked as a top 10 stop unit. WKU ranks 70th in total defense and 5 of their last 9 opponents scored at least 30 points vs this defense. South Alabama is very balanced on offense and should have plenty of success in this game. Both teams are more than capable of getting to 30+ points here and we’ll grab the Over. |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan +4 over San Jose State, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have SJSU as a 1 point favorite on a neutral site so we feel the value is with EMU in this game. The Spartans have been trending down and overvalued for over a month now. They’ve lost 6 straight ATS by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were outgained by 4 of their last 6 opponents winning the stat sheet vs Nevada (2-10 record) and Hawaii (3-10 record) only. Their only wins since early September were vs Hawaii, Colorado St, and Nevada three teams who have a combined 8-29 record. EMU, on the other hand, is playing their best ball of the season right now winning 6 of their last 8 games with a spread record of 5-1-1 their last 7. The offense hit their stride down the stretch scoring 30+ points in three crucial games to end the season. This is also a team that beat Arizona State on the road earlier in the year and outgained the Sun Devils by 116 yards, prompting ASU officials to fire head coach Herm Edwards immediately after the game. EMU head coach Chris Creighton has been fantastic as an underdog going 3-1 ATS in bowl games and 35-10 ATS his last 45 getting points. The Eagles are the much more balanced offense rushing for 144 YPG and passing for 218 YPG. SJSU can’t run the ball averaging only 92 YPG (125th nationally) so they can be one dimensional on offense not great when your offensive line ranks 114th in sacks allowed per game. EMU is making this out to be a huge game for their program. They are looking to win their first bowl game since 1987. This game is being played in Boise which is in the same conference as San Jose State so we can’t imagine this is a rewarding bowl for that program. Take the points in this one. |
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12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#217 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -10.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9:15 PM ET - This game is in Frisco, TX giving UNT a slight home field advantage but we still like Boise to roll. The North Texas program is in a bit of chaos after firing their head coach Littrell despite making the CUSA Championship game. That spot was just filled by an assistant coach from Washington State just a few days ago leaving the current coaching staff in limbo. The Mean Green were trending downward to close the season failing to cover their last 3 games and getting blown out in 2 of those games. They were 1-5 SU this year vs teams with winning records and in their 5 losses they were beaten by a combined score of 212 to 119 or an average final score of 42.5 to 23.8. They were outgained by over 600 yards in those 5 losses. Boise turned their season around once they switched QB’s and went with Green under center and hired longtime NFL coach Dirk Koetter to call plays. Once they settled on Green as the starter, the Broncos went 6-2 from that point on with their only losses coming vs BYU and Fresno in the MWC Championship game. They already had a great defense and with Green as the starter they averaged 32 PPG making them very tough to beat. The BSU defense has a HUGE advantage in this game ranking 6th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense allowing 18 PPG compared to the UNT stop unit that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, pass defense, rush defense, and scoring defense allowing 31.5 PPG. Boise rolls in this one. |
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12-17-22 | Rice v. Southern Miss UNDER 45.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
#213/214 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points – Rice vs Southern Miss, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - We do like USM to win this game but we’re very wary of laying nearly a TD with a team that simply doesn’t score many points so the Under is our play in this one. Southern Miss ranks 94th in points scored and outside the top 100 in total offense. If we throw out their game vs FCS Northwestern State where they put up 64 points, the Eagles topped 27 points just once all season and over their last 8 games they only topped 23 points one time. Defensively they are solid holding teams to an average of 23 PPG on the season. They should be able to control this Rice offense that scored just 34 total points over their last 3 games and those games were vs defenses ranked 124th, 90th, and 70th, all well below this USM stop unit. That offensive ineptness coincided with their starting QB McMahon getting injured and the Owls having to use an inexperienced QB. It looks like freshman Padgett will get the start at QB in this game and he has attempted only 40 passes this year completing just 50% of those throws. Neither of these teams play up tempo ranking 69th and 118th in plays per second so we look for a slow paced game without many possessions. The weather in Mobile on Saturday could be rainy and we expect a low scoring game here. Take the Under. |
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12-17-22 | Fresno State -4 v. Washington State | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
#211 ASA PLAY ON 8* Fresno State -4 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Washington State opened as a 2 point favorite in this game and it has swing to FSU by more than a FG. We agree with the move and feel there is still some value on the Bulldogs. WSU ended the regular season with a 7-5 overall record but did not beat a single team with a winning record and finished below .500 in the Pac 12. Their best win of the season was vs a down Wisconsin team who was 6-6 on the year and in that game the Cougars were outgained by 150 yards and had 12 fewer first downs. If we throw out their 24-17 win vs FCS Idaho, the record of the 6 FBS teams Wazzou beat was 24-48. Fresno is 9-4 this season but we feel they are better than their record. That’s because they played a number of games without their starting QB Haener who is an NFL caliber signal caller. He’s thrown for almost 9,000 career yards with 66 TD’s and just 18 picks. When Haener was able to play from start to finish, the Bulldogs were 9-1 with their only loss coming vs Oregon State 35-32 in a game where the Beavers scored a TD as time expired to get the tight win. FSU outgained the Beavs by almost 100 yards in that game, an Oregon State team that finished 6-3 in the Pac 12 and beat Washington St by 2 TD’s. Fresno comes in at the top of their game winning 8 straight games, covering 6 of those. The are facing a Wazzou team that will be without 3 of their top 4 WR’s, 3 starting LB’s, and both their offensive and defensive coordinators have moved on. The Bulldogs are jacked to get another shot at a Pac 12 team and we like them to cover this one. |
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12-16-22 | Troy v. UTSA OVER 55.5 | Top | 18-12 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
#203/204 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 55.5 Points – Troy vs UTSA, Friday at 3 PM ET - Troy has fantastic overall defensive numbers but they’ve faced an easy slate of offensive opponents. The last 8 opponents they’ve played rank 49th, 120th, 112th, 89th, 86th, 40th, 115th, and 109th in total offense. That means the teams they’ve faced since October 1st have an average rank of 90th in total offense. Now they face a UTSA team that ranks 9th in total offense and has scored at least 30 points in every game but 1 this season. The Roadrunners have scored 40+ points in over half their games this season (7). UTSA has a veteran QB Harris that is one of the better “unknown” QB’s in the nation. They rank 12th nationally in passing YPG and Troy hasn’t faced a proficient passing offense since October 1st when WKY put up over 400 yards through the air on the Trojans. We expect UTSA to be successful offensively in this game. Same goes for Troy. They struggled offensively at times this year but found their rhythm at the end of the year scoring 45, 48, and 34 points over their last 3 games. The Trojans will be facing a UTSA defense that ranks 90th in total defense and 101st vs the pass where Troy has been proficient averaging 253 YPG through the air. Weather looks great in Orlando on Friday afternoon and we expect a lot of offense. OVER is the play in the Cure Bowl on Friday. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
#321/322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -7.5 over UNC, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We like this spot for Clemson off a 1 point loss to a surging South Carolina team as a double digit favorite. It wasn’t a terrible loss by any means vs a surging Gamecocks team who had won 3 of their last 4 games including a 63-38 win over a top 5 Tennessee team. The Tigers blew a 9 point second half lead in that game and head coach Dabo Swinney made all of his coaches put in extra film time after that loss in preparation for the ACC Championship game. Clemson is very well coached and we feel they’ll play outstanding in this game after last week’s result. UNC is trending downward for sure. They have lost back to back games vs teams using back up QB’s. The Heels lost at home to a bad Georgia Tech team 21-17 on November 19th and the Jackets were without their starting QB Sims in that game and lost their back up during the game. UNC followed that loss up by getting beat again at home last Saturday by NC State who played their 3rd string QB Finley and he had only appeared in one other game this season. The offense, particularly, QB Maye looks like they are running out of gas. They struggled to put up yardage each of the last 2 weeks (350 and 365 total yards) and now they face one of the better defensive fronts in college football. Maye’s numbers have dropped off drastically the last 2 weeks as he has completed just 57% of his passes for 215 YPG through the air. Clemson with a huge edge defensively here (24th in total D to 117th for North Carolina) and they have a solid coaching advantage. Clemson is used to playing in big games like this and we like them to win by double digits. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
#307 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +2 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line screams KSU in our opinion. We have an undefeated TCU team facing a 3 loss KSU team who they already beat this season and is playing for a spot in the College FB Playoff yet this line sits below 3 at just 2.5. Lots of pressure on the Horned Frogs here while a very good Kansas State team can play loose. In their first meeting this season @ TCU, the Wildcats led 28-10 near the end of the first half but blew the lead when they lost their starting QB Martinez AND their back up QB Howard in the game leaving a freshman at QB from mid 3rd quarter on. After Howard exited in the 3rd quarter, the Cats gained only 43 yards from that point on with their young, inexperienced 3rd string QB. We have no doubt that game would have played out differently had KSU had either of their top QB’s available down the stretch. They are both most likely available here. We know Howard will start and don’t be surprised if Martinez gets some snaps to keep the TCU defense guessing. Last week TCU rolled up a huge win 62-14 over Iowa State yet only outgained the Cyclones by 47 yards but ISU had a bunch of turnovers including 2 pick 6’s for the Frogs. It was ISU’s final game of the season, on the road, with nothing to play for. Prior to last week TCU had trailed or were tied in the 4th quarter in 5 of their previous 7 games but were able to win and nearly half of their wins (5) were one possession final scores. They were fortunate to be +7 turnovers in Big 12 play as well. We think TCU’s luck runs out here and KSU gets the upset. |
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12-02-22 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron +12 over Buffalo, Friday at 1 PM ET - The Bulls were playing for a spot in the MAC Championship game last weekend and with a win over Kent they would have been in. They blew a 14 point lead with under 3:00 minutes to go in the game and then lost in OT. This is a really tough bounce back spot for them even if they need this one to get to 6 wins on the season. It was a meaningless road game for Kent as they were already out of bowl contention and their starting QB Schlee came into that game injured. He only took a few snaps and the Golden FlashThe Flashes played 3 separate QB’s in that game, one of which hadn’t played a snap this season. Even with that, Kent still was able to win the game and outgain Buffalo in the process. The Bulls are catching an Akron team that is playing their best football of the season. Last week the Zips went into Northern Illinois as a 9 point dog and won the game outright 44-12! It wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the Huskies by 250 yards. They have now outgained their last 4 opponents and they’ve shown zero quit as the season comes to an end. Last week the Zips were without their starting QB Irons but their back up Undercuffler, who threw for over 6,000 career yards as a starter at Albany prior to transferring, looked great last week passing for 312 yards and 3 TD’s. Despite their records (Akron 2-9 / Buffalo 5-6) the Zips have very similar overall stats (-1.0 YPP differential to Buffalo’s -1.2 YPP differential / Akron -38 YPG and Buffalo -15 YPG) and we’re getting double digits. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in over a month (October 23 was their last win) and Akron continues to fight with their win last week and 5 of their last 7 losses coming by single digits. Take the points on Friday afternoon. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#126 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This seems like a line most would grab Oregon based on the situation. The Ducks are playing for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game yet only favored by a FG vs OSU. We actually think it’s a tough spot for Oregon as they’ve come off back to back emotional, down to the wire games the last 2 weeks. They were upended by Washington 37-34 when the Huskies scored 2 TDs in the final 3:10 to get the win. Last week Oregon played host to Utah and picked up a tight 20-17 win but the Utes had plenty of chances to get the W but had 3 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs 3 times in Oregon territory. Three huge games in a row can be really tough on a team and we have a feeling the Ducks struggle here. Their QB Nix is really banged up right now and didn’t look even close to 100% last week. OSU is flying under the radar right now. Despite getting very little publicity, this team is 8-3 and they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The Beavers had one bad game this year vs Utah in which they outgained the Utes but turned the ball over 4 times including a pick 6. Other than that, their other 2 losses were by 3 points vs USC and by 3 points @ Washington. They run the ball very well (194 YPG) and their defense is sneaky good ranking 25th nationally. OSU has beaten the Ducks 2 of the last 3 times in Corvallis and they’d like nothing better than to ruin Oregon’s Pac 12 title hopes. We like OSU + the points and think they have a great shot at the upset. |
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11-26-22 | Georgia State v. Marshall -6.5 | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
#178 ASA PLAY ON 8* Marshall -6.5 over Georgia State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for Georgia State on the road facing a surging Marshall team. GSU played James Madison to the wire last week before losing 42-40. That game was a killer for the Panthers as they were looking to get to a bowl game for the 4th consecutive season and knew they need to win their last 2 games to accomplish that. Coming up short last week and now going on the road again is not an ideal situation. While last week’s game was close on the scoreboard, Georgia State was outgained by a hefty 168 yards but James Madison gifted the Panthers 4 turnovers including 2 fumbles that were returned for TD’s. So that game should not have been that close and GSU was lucky to even be in it. Now they face a Marshall team that has been lights out winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their only loss during that stretch was vs Coastal Carolina, who is already locked into the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, and Marshall actually outgained them by 136 yards despite the loss. The Thundering Herd have a great defense ranked 10th nationally and they match up perfectly with GSU’s offense. The Panthers have very little passing game and rely on running the ball. Marshall ranks 6th nationally allowing only YPG on the ground. Remember, Marshall beat Notre Dame on the road this season and held a potent Irish running game to 130 yards which is 60+ yards below their season average. This is Marshall’s final home game and with a win they can get to 8 wins on the season. Under a TD at home is line value for Marshall and we’ll lay it. |
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11-26-22 | Old Dominion v. South Alabama -15 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
#182 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Alabama -15 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We played against ODU last week @ App State and what looked like it was going to be an easy win, turned into a loss. App State (-16) was up 24-0 at half and up 27-0 with under 9 minutes remaining in the game. ODU scored 2 late TD’s to make the final 27-14 costing us a win. We’re coming right back and going against the Monarchs on Saturday. They are 16 point dogs again @ South Alabama which is big time value in our opinion. We have USA a full TD better than App State on a neutral field yet this number is the same as it was last week. The Jaguars are 9-2 on the season and still have a shot at the Sun Belt Championship Game. They need to win here and then have Troy lose their game (later in the day) and that would send the Jags to the Championship game. Not only that, a win here gets them to 10 wins for the first time ever as a Division 1 team (joined D1 in 2012). This is a huge home game for them. USA is really close to being undefeated this season with a 1 point loss @ UCLA (Bruins kicked a FG as time expired) and a 4 point loss vs Troy who they are tied for first place with in the Sun Belt West. ODU has now lost 5 straight games and over their last 4 they’ve been outgained by 680 total yards and scored only 34 total points (8.5 PPG). They are 3-8 with nothing to play for and on the road for their 2nd consecutive week. We expect the ODU offense to continue to struggle vs a South Alabama defense ranked 13th nationally. On the other side of the ball, USA averages 34 PPG at home this season and they are facing a Monarch defense ranked 117th. This has the makings of a blowout and we’ll lay the points. |
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11-25-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -10.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
#132 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Iowa -10.5 over Nebraska, Friday at 4 PM ET - A win here sends Iowa to the Big 10 Championship game representing the West division. We can’t imagine Nebraska will be hyped to play this game. They are out of bowl consideration and put everything into last week’s home finale vs Wisconsin and lost 15-14 when the Badgers scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining. It’s not as if the Huskers dominated the game and blew it at the end. They were very fortunate to be in it as they gained only 171 total yards and were outgained by 147 yards. The Nebraska offense has been shut down over the last month scoring 9, 13, 3, and 14 points their last 4 games. The last 2 weeks they were held under 175 total yards vs both Wisconsin and Michigan. Now they face an Iowa defense that is every bit as good as those 2 stop units so we expect very little, if anything, out of the Nebraska offense. So we’re laying double digits with an Iowa offense that has struggled most of the year. Can they do enough to get this cover? We think so. Taking a close look at their schedule, Iowa’s offense has played one of the tougher slates of opposing defenses this season. 6 of the 11 defenses they’ve faced are ranked in the top 15 nationally. All but 2 of the defenses the Hawkeyes have faced rank inside the top 35. The 2 defenses they’ve played that were not good were Northwestern (72nd ranked defense) and Nevada (96th ranked defense) and they put up 33 and 27 points in those 2 contests. On Friday they face a Nebraska defense that ranks 108th which is the worst Iowa has played this season. Iowa’s offense has looked much better down the stretch averaging 24 PPG over their last 4 vs defenses much better than Nebraska’s. If they get to that here, we think the cover. Big disparity on defense and in “want to” here in favor of Iowa so we’ll lay it. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
#120 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Missouri +4 over Arkansas, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Arkansas last weekend in what was a huge game for them. They were home dogs and needed to beat Ole Miss to clinch bowl eligibility. They did just that and now they are on the road in a potential letdown spot. Despite the win last week, the Razors defense has some serious deficiencies. The offense played great but the defense allowed 700 yards to the Rebs. They currently rank 121st in total defense and on the road they are 2-2 on the season allowing 32 PPG. They haven’t played a very tough road slate despite their 2-2 record beating Auburn & BYU while losing @ Mississippi State and @ Texas A&M, whose season has been a disaster. In fact, A&M’s only conference win this year was at home vs Arkansas. Mizzou is in a similar situation to the Razors last week. They are 5-6 and have to win this game to get to a bowl. Their defense, unlike Arkansas, has been very good ranking 30th nationally so we’re getting a desperate home underdog with the much better defense. The Tigers are 4-2 at home this year with tight 4 point losses to Georgia & Kentucky. No other team has played to within 10 points of UGA this year. While Arkansas was putting all of their time and energy into beating LSU to reach 6 wins last week, Missouri had a “semi” bye beating New Mexico State bad and you can bet they were also preparing for this game in the week leading up to that. These 2 teams have played similar strength of schedules and their stats are pretty close with Mizzou +0.1 YPP and +25 YPG while Arkansas is -0.1 YPP and +16 YPG. The host has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series and this one is much more important for the Tigers. |
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11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
#400 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is an absolute flat spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels are now officially out of the SEC West race (LSU will play in the Championship Game) after losing 30-24 at home to Alabama last Saturday. They had a shot at the win pushing to the Alabama 14 yard line with under 1:00 minute remaining but were shut out on downs. Going on the road after that disappointment will be tough especially since they have a home game vs arch rival Mississippi State next on Thanksgiving Day. Not to mention, Ole Miss has only played one decent team on the road this season and that was @ LSU where they were rolled 45-20. The Rebels other road games this season came vs Georgia Tech, Vandy, and Texas A&M who all have losing records. On the other side, this is a HUGE home game for Arkansas. They need one more win for bowl eligibility and this is their final home game. Last week we were on the Razors and found out right before kickoff (along with everyone else) that starting QB Jefferson was being held out of the game. Despite that, Arkansas gave a great effort and nearly knocked off LSU losing 13-10 (Arkansas did get the cover). With Jefferson in the lineup, we’re fairly confident the Razorbacks would have won that game. He has been practicing all week and will be back in the line up on Saturday according to head coach Pittman. Not only is this the home finale, but it’s a game Arkansas has had circled after losing 52-51 @ Ole Miss last year failing on a 2 point conversion with no time left on the clock. The Razors also fall into a very strong system which is conference home underdogs coming off back to back home losses (so playing their 3rd straight home game) are 68-41 ATS over the last 40+ seasons. Arkansas is a very dangerous home dog here with a lot to play for and we’ll call for the upset |
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11-19-22 | Houston v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 42-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
#354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -5.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - These teams are both 6-4 on the season but ECU is the much better team. This is the Pirates first home game in nearly a month and their home finale. ECU is coming off a game where they completely outplayed Cincinnati on the road, a Bearcats team that is currently tied for first place in the AAC. In that game the Pirates lost 27-25 but outgained Cincy by +144 total yards. The Pirates also beat UCF by 21 points so they outplayed the top 2 teams in the conference while Houston didn’t have to face Cincy or Central Florida. ECU has actually outgained every opponent but one this season and they are +80 YPG on the season. Houston struggled at home to beat a bad Temple team last Saturday. The Cougars were outgained in that game and scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining in the game to win by a TD vs a 3-7 Temple team. Houston’s YPG differential on the season is just +13 and they’ve been overvalued all season long with a 3-7 ATS record losing to the number by a combined 55 points or an average of 5.5 PPG. ECU, on the other hand, is 7-3 ATS and has covered 3 straight by a combined 35 points. ECU’s top 20 offense will be facing a Houston defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, passing defense, and PPG allowed. The Pirates average 35 PPG at home this season with a scoring margin of +12.5 PPG and Houston allows 39.5 PPG on the road. Last year these 2 met in Houston and while the Cougars pulled out a win on OT, they were outgained by over 100 yards by ECU. The Pirates should be highly motivated here in their final home game, we like them to win this by more than a TD. |
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11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor +2.5 | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
#398 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baylor +2.5 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Situationally this one sets up very nicely. Baylor is off an embarrassing home loss vs KSU in which they lost 31-3 despite being favored. This week Baylor head coach Dave Aranda apologized to the fanbase for their performance and you can expect this team to be more than ready in their home finale on Saturday. On top of that, the Bears have been quietly waiting for this game as the Bears were in a similar spot to what TCU is in right now when these teams met last year. It was a November game, Baylor was 7-1 (finished the season 12-2) and sitting in the top 5 with a chance at the College Football Playoffs if they win out. They were favored on the road @ TCU by 7.5 points and lost 30-28 ending their hopes. Now the roles are reversed and Baylor can be the spoiler. TCU is off an impressive 17-10 win @ Texas where they were 7.5 point underdogs. It felt like a “if we can just win at Texas” type game we have a legit shot at the CFB Playoffs. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, and their 9th consecutive week of playing games, TCU is in a really tough spot. The pressure is all on the Horned Frogs where as we expect Baylor to play with a nothing to lose mentality. The Bears have won 10 of their last 12 home games and since the start of last season, they’ve been a home underdog twice and won both of those games outright. They also have an amazing bounce back record of 21-4-2 ATS their last 27 games following an ATS loss. So Baylor loses by 28 points as a home favorite to KSU last week, TCU upsets Texas on the road and controls their own destiny, yet the Frogs are favored by less than a FG in this game? We’re on Baylor to pull the upset. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 60 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* UNDER 60 Eastern Michigan at Kent State, 6 PM ET - Let’s get some early action down on the first MAC game of the day on Wednesday night when EMU travels to Kent State. Kent State has an explosive offense that is 38th in the nation in total YPG and 19th in rushing but Eastern allows just 5.3-yards per play which is 57th. KSU averages 24.9PPG which is 77th in the country, EMU scores an average of 26.1PPG (72nd). Eastern lacks an explosive offense as they average just 4.9YPPL which ranks 99th. Kent State is hovering around the national average for YPPL at 5.5. This game will feature a heavy dose of the running game for Kent State who averages 43.4 rushing attempts per game which is 15th most in college football. EMU averages 37.9 RAPG which is 51st. Eastern has not had a total of 60+ points set on any of their games this season. Kent State has only gone Over the total in 1 of their last seven games and that was against Toledo who scored 52-points against them. The Under has hit in 3 straight meetings between these schools and 5 of the last seven. |
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11-12-22 | Kansas State v. Baylor OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
#181/182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 51.5 Points – Kansas State vs Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There seems to be huge games every single weekend in the Big 12 and this Saturday is no exception when Kansas State takes on Baylor. Big 12 games this season have averaged 60PPG and these two teams have a combined Over record of 10-2 in conference play. The O/U on this game currently sits at 52.5 which is the second lowest number set by the Oddsmakers this season on both teams. The only games these two teams have played in with a lower number was against Iowa State. The Cyclones are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, but also one of the best defensively. Looking closer at Baylor’s offense we see they’ve started to click with four straight games of 35+ points. The Bears have the 27th most efficient offense in college football, average 12.7 yards for every point scored (17th), 34.5PPG and 5.7-yards per play which is 43rd. Kansas State’s offense is 23rd in OEFF, average 6.2YPP (24th) and score 30.1PPG on the season. Baylor converts 44.25% of their 3rd downs and can extend drives. K-Stare has a red zone scoring percentage of 90.32% so when they get inside the 20-yards line they put up points. We are not ignoring the fact that the Wildcats have some solid defensive numbers, but they have also given up 34-points to Texas, 38 to TCU, 28 to Texas Tech and 34 to Oklahoma. The Bears are also good defensively, but they too have had a few lapses defensively allowing 35 to Oklahoma, 43 to West Virginia and 36 to Oklahoma State. Weather at game time in Waco looks perfect with temps in the 40’s and very light winds. This game gets to 59 or more points. |
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11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#158 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Tech. They sit with a 4-5 record and need to win 2 of their last 3 games for bowl eligibility. They are catching Kansas coming off a huge home win vs Oklahoma State which made the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. The celebrated as if they’d won the National Championship and now KU must go on the road where they’ve struggled. We expect a letdown here now that Kansas has achieved their goal of making it to a bowl game. They are 1-2 SU in Big 12 road games losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and Baylor (outgained by a combined 400+ yards in those games) and their lone win was @ WVU in OT way back on September 10th and we have the Mountaineers the lowest rated team in the Big 12. Last week’s 37-16 win over a really banged up OSU team wasn’t quite as impressive as it might seem. The Cowboys played without their starting QB along with a number of other key starters on the shelf as well. A week earlier OSU lost @ KSU 48-0. They simply have too many injuries to compete at a high level right now. It looks like KU starting QB Daniels will remain out meaning back up Bean will get his 4th straight start. Prior to last week’s win, Bean started 2 games on the road (Baylor & Oklahoma) and the Jayhawks were down 20+ points in the 2nd half of each game and made a late comeback making each look more respectable than they actually were losing by 10 & 12 points. Tech is much better than their 4-5 record. They’ve played very tough with all but one of the Big 12’s top teams and have led in the 2nd half of many of those conference losses. The Red Raiders have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPG differential is an impressive +89 YPG (Kansas is -1 YPG on the season). Their offense is always potent, however the Tech defense is vastly improved this year allowing 373 YPG after giving up over 400 YPG last season. They hold a solid edge on that side of the ball with the KU defense giving up 435 YPG. The Raiders did lose QB Morton to an injury last week, however he was their 3rd string QB to start the season and was forced into action when starter Shough and back up Smith went down. They are both back so whoever starts we’re fine at QB. We like the value here as Texas Tech was favored by 19 AT Kansas last year and won in blowout fashion. We understand KU is improved but that is a huge swing in the pointspread in just 1 year. Tech is 21-2 SU in this series and we look for a win and cover on Saturday. |
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11-12-22 | LSU v. Arkansas +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
#212 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arkansas +4 over LSU, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - Line value and situational play on the Razorbacks here. LSU is off their huge home 32-31 OT win vs Bama last week. The Tigers were outgained by 100 yards in that one and got the win when they decided to go for 2-points after their TD in the 1st OT. They also had a bye entering their game vs Alabama so it was a really good spot for LSU. Just a huge win and it will be tough for this team to play at their maximum level in a road game at Noon ET this Saturday. Arkansas is off an embarrassing 21-19 home loss vs Liberty as a 14 point favorite. The Razors outgained Liberty by 115 yards but were shutout on downs twice in Flames territory and threw 2 key interceptions. It wasn’t a huge upset by any means as Liberty is very solid with an 8-1 record and had Arkansas in a flat spot coming off a win @ Auburn with this huge match up vs LSU on deck. LSU has been an underdog in 4 straight games and now they flip to a favorite of more than a FG @ Arkansas? In the Tigers most recent road game they were a 1 point dog vs Florida who we have rated 1.5 points worse than Arkansas. Last year the Razorbacks were -3 @ LSU and now they are getting more than a FG at home in a perfect situational spot. We like the Arkansas ground game to have a solid day on Saturday as they rank 10th nationally averaging 235 YPG rushing and the LSU defense is OK (not great) at stopping the run allowing 140 YPG. LSU is a solid 7-2 on the season but they’ve had a fortunate schedule playing only 2 road games thus far and only 1 since October 1st. Arkansas needs one more win for bowl eligibility with only 3 left so this is a huge home game for them. We’ll take the points. |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Central Michigan PK -110 over Buffalo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Buffalo has the better record here at 5-4 compared to CMU’s 3-6 mark but we feel the Chippewas are the better team. We have this game power rated to CMU -3.5 so we’re getting some nice value with this number. The Chips are off a big win @ NIU last week 35-22 and they outgained the Huskies by 136 yards. Buffalo had won 5 in a row before getting torched by Ohio last week 45-24 and outgained by 222 yards. Despite their 5-1 record over the last 6 games, the Bulls were outgained in half of those games so they’ve been a bit fortunate. That’s been the theme of their season as Buffalo has a YPP differential of -1.2 on the year and they’ve been outgained by 18 YPG. CMU, despite playing a slightly more difficult schedule, has a dead even YPP differential and they are outgaining their opponents by +26 YPG. They’ve been very unlucky in the turnover department as the Chippewas have lost more fumbles than any other team in the nation! CMU has the much better defense here allowing 1.1 fewer YPP than the Bulls stop unit. Central also ranks #1 in the MAC (conference games) allowing just 331 YPG while Buffalo gives up 396 YPG in league play. The host should also control the line of scrimmage here as CMU sports a +0.3 YPC differential and Buffalo is -1.6 in that category. If the Chippewas can limit their turnovers here, we expect them to win this game at home. |
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11-05-22 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. NC State | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wake is coming off a horrible performance @ Louisville last Saturday and we like them to bounce back in a big way here. Last week the Deacs were favored by -3 @ Louisville and lost the game 48-21. The yardage in the game was dead even however WF had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game, including 6 in the third quarter alone that led to the Cards scoring 35 points in that quarter. Four of Louisville’s five TD’s in the third quarter came on 2 pick 6’s, a 9 yard TD drive and a 33 yard TD drive. It was simply a game where everything went wrong for Wake. Let’s remember prior to that loss, WF was 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming in OT vs Clemson. It was their first road loss of the season after rolling @ Vandy by 20 points and winning @ Florida State by 10. NC State is ranked in the top 25 but they are seriously overvalued right now. That’s because they lost their veteran starting QB Leary three weeks ago and they have not been impressive in their 2 games since he went out. The Wolfpack lost 24-9 @ Syracuse and then last week had to rally from down 21-3 at home vs a bad Virginia Tech team to win 22-21. They made a switch at QB to true freshman Morris last week after getting behind and he rallied them back in his first extended action of the season. This week he’ll be making the first start of his career which is much different that coming in off the bench. Wake has film on the inexperienced starter and we expect him to struggle. The Demon Deacon offense has had all kinds of success vs NC State’s defense averaging 38 PPG over the last 5 meetings and the last 2 years with QB Hartman at the helm they’ve scored 45 and 42 points. NC State has a negative YPP differential on the season and they were outgained in 4 of their 6 games BEFORE QB Leary was injured. Wake is the better team, off a bad loss, with a huge edge at the QB position. Lay the small number. |
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11-05-22 | Baylor v. Oklahoma OVER 61 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
#359/360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – Baylor vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Baylor just continues to pile on points week after week and this OU offense is better than their season long numbers which are still quite good. The Bears are 15th nationally averaging 38.5 PPG and they’ve put up at least 30 in all but 2 of their 8 games this season. They should continue that success here vs an Oklahoma defense that has been a sieve all season long ranking 114th in total D. Throw out their first 3 games vs Kent, UTEP, and Nebraska, and this Sooner defense has allowed 41, 55, 49, 42, and 13 points in Big 12 play. Last week their defense looked like they may have played pretty well holding Iowa State to 13 points, however the Cyclones gained 374 total yards including 300+ through the air. That’s an ISU offense that ranks dead last in the Big12 in total offense and scoring. This week is a whole different animal vs a Baylor offense that ranks 3rd in the conference in both scoring and total offense. Oklahoma’s offense is averaging a more than respectable 33 PPG on the season. However, they played 2 games without their starting QB Gabriel and in his absence they scored only 24 total points in those 2 games. With Gabriel in the lineup, the Sooners are averaging 40 PPG! The Baylor defense stepped up last week holding Texas Tech to 17 points (45-17 final) but prior to that the Bears were allowing 31.5 PPG in league play. We’re getting some value with this total. Last week OU’s game at ISU had a total set at 58. Now only 3 points higher despite Baylor being MUCH better offensively and worse defensively with Iowa State ranking #1 in the conference in both total defense and scoring defense. Let’s take the Over in this one. |
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11-05-22 | Kentucky v. Missouri +1 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
#362 ASA Play on 8* Missouri Pick’em/+1 vs Kentucky, 12 PM ET - Kentucky is coming off their “Game of the Year” against Tennessee last week in which they lost 6-44 in blowout fashion. Cats QB Will Levis struggled on the day going 16 of 27 for just 98-yards with 3 INT’s. That should shift the Wildcats focus offensively to the running game which has struggled this season at 117.5-rushing yards per game (106th). Not to mention, the Tigers rush defense allows just 116-RYPG which ranks 27th in the nation. Missouri ranks 18th overall in YPG allowed at 311 and have held opponents to 21.5PPG which ranks them 33rd. This Mizzo team gave Georgia their best game of the season losing by just 4-points at home. UK is 1-2 SU on the road this season and have been out gained and lost 3 of their last four games overall. Last season Kentucky was the much better team, and they were a -5.5-point favorite at home and won by just 7-points. More handle and tickets have flowed in on Kentucky, yet the line moved in the opposite direction. |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Washington | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* OREGON STATE +4.5 @ Washington – Friday, 10:30 PM ET - Washington has won 9 of the last 10 meetings but the Beavers did win last year as a -2.5-point favorite at home. The weather conditions call for 81% rain and 17MPH winds which should favor the rushing attack of Oregon State vs. the passing offense of Washington (#1). In doing a comparative schedule assessment the Beavers have played the tougher schedule with games against Fresno State, USC and Utah. Washington’s toughest opponent faced this year is UCLA who they lost to by 8-points and were outgained by 89-yards. On paper Washington has the 21st best rushing defense in college football allowing 110.4RYPG but those numbers are misleading as they’ve faced 5 offenses that rank 82nd or worse in rushing O. The Beavers average 195.8-rushing yards per game which is 30th in college football and should have a big advantage here, especially in poor conditions. In fact the only rushing attack they have faced similar to Oregon State’s is UCLA who put up 184-rushing yards against them. Road team 6-1 ATS the last seven. Beavers 8-2 ATS last ten in Washington. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Coastal steps into this home game with a 7-1 record yet they are underdogs vs the 5-3 App State Mountaineers. We agree and feel ASU is the much better team. We’ve felt Coastal has been overrated most of the season and they are not a 7-1 team. Their most recent home game the Chanticleers were whipped by 28 points vs Old Dominion and Coastal was favored by 12 in that game. That loss was no fluke as a rather average ODU offense put up a ridiculous 10.7 YPP to just 5.6 YPP for CC. The Monarchs destroyed Coastal in the trenches as well averaging over 10 YPC to just 2.1 YPC for the Chanticleers. Last week it looks like Coastal rebounded well beating Marshall but that wasn’t the case as they were again dominated gaining just 271 yards while allowing 407. Marshall turnovers and penalties were key in that win for CC. Now they face an App State team that is among the best rushing teams in the nation and we look for CC to get dominated at the line of scrimmage again. App State has played the tougher schedule facing 2 Power 5 opponents (UNC & Texas A&M) while Coastal hasn’t faced a Power 5 opponent and has a strength of schedule ranking of 121st. Despite that App State has a YPP differential of +1.5 and a YPG differential of +150 compared to CC who sits at +0.2 YPP and +22 YPG. Remember this ASU team took UNC to the wire (lost by 2) and beat Texas A&M on the road. We’ll take the much better team and lay only 3 points here. |
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11-02-22 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5.5 over Central Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - NIU is undervalued with a 2-6 record in our opinion. Their starting QB Lombardi has played in only 1 of their 4 conference games and the Huskies won that game 39-10 @ Eastern Michigan. It looks like he’ll be back for this one and NIU is just happy to be at home for once. They have played ONE home game since September 17th and we’re now into November. That one home game was a loss to the MAC’s best team, Toledo, however Lombardi didn’t play and Northern still outgained the Rockets by 75 yards in that loss. Toledo had 2 pick 6’s in the game. NIU has now outgained every conference opponent this year despite only having 1 win in MAC play. CMU is also 1-4 in conference play with their only win coming vs league doormat Akron and by only 7 points. The Chips followed that unimpressive win up by getting smoked by a bad Bowling Green team 34-18. That’s a BG team that had only won 7 of their previous 27 games dating back to 2019. In that game CMU pulled their starting QB Richardson who has been struggling and inserted inexperienced freshman Bauer who played OK. He may start here which would be his first road start ever. At worst, it sounds like they may rotate QB’s here so with Lombardi starting for NIU we have a big advantage under center. The Huskies should control the line of scrimmage here ranking 22nd nationally in rushing and they’ve outrushed all but Vanderbilt and Toledo this season. Central Michigan has solid overall defensive numbers vs the run, however they’ve played a very weak schedule of rush offenses including their 2 most recent games vs Akron (128th rushing) and BG (110th rushing). The one good running team they’ve faced in MAC play was Toledo and the Rockets rolled them for 250+ yards on the ground. We like NIU to win by at least a TD here. |
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10-30-22 | Wyoming v. Hawaii UNDER 51 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
#193/194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Wyoming vs Hawaii, Saturday at 12 Midnight ET - We have 2 of the worst offenses in college football in this game and we do not see them reaching 50 points. Hawaii ranks 115th in total offense (out of 131) and Wyoming ranks 114th. If we subtract games vs FCS opponents and any OT points, Wyoming is averaging 21 PPG which would rank them outside the top 100 and Hawaii is averaging just 17 PPG ranking them 115th. Both teams are slower paced as well with Wyoming ranking 108th averaging 1 offensive snap every 27 seconds and Hawaii averages 1 play every 25 seconds which is 54th nationally. Needless to say this should be a slower paced game without many offensive snaps. Defensively Wyoming is quite solid. They rank 55th in total YPG allowed and give up only 5.3 YPP. The Cowboys have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 14 points or fewer. Their last 2 opponents, Utah State & New Mexico, have very similar offensive numbers to Hawaii and Wyoming held them each to just 14 points. Hawaii’s defense does not have impressive year long numbers. However, they played some very impressive offenses early in the season including Michigan & Western Kentucky and gave up piles of yards and points in those games so the year long numbers aren’t overly accurate. As of late and playing lower tier offenses comparable to Wyoming, the Hawaii defense has been impressive. They have allowed 17 points or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games including 16, 16, and 17 points the last 3 weeks after they had their bye back on October 1st. Last year these 2 faced off and scored 52 points and both offenses were drastically better than this year’s versions. We just don’t see either team doing much offensively here and we’ll grab the Under. |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 4 PM ET - South Carolina is coming off what looks like a solid 30-24 win over Texas A&M in a home night game last week. The fact is, the Gamecocks were outgained by 112 yards in that win but got out to a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter and it took them 19 yards of TOTAL offense to get out to that 17 point lead. SC returned the opening kick for a TD, then kicked a FG (after 0 yards gained) and scored a TD (after 19 yards gained) following 2 A&M turnovers. Then on top of that, A&M lost their starting QB King with the Aggies making a comeback cutting the lead to 3 and were left with their 3rd string QB who is a freshman from that point on. South Carolina is on a 4 game winning streak which is giving us some value here. Last week’s win was deceiving as we mentioned, and prior to that they topped Kentucky who was playing without their starting QB and probable first round draft pick Will Levis. Prior to that they had beaten FCS South Carolina State and Charlotte who ranks among the worst teams in FBS. Not a great 4 game run despite them winning all 4. Meanwhile Mizzou has showed some really solid play this year when stepping up in class. They gave Georgia all they could handle actually leading the Bulldogs 22-12 into the 4th quarter before UGA scored 2 TD’s to win 26-22 (SOUTH CARO LOST TO UGA 48-7 at home). The Tigers went to Florida and lost by a TD but outgained the Gators by 73 yards and they lost in OT by 3 points @ Auburn outgaining the host in that game as well. Missouri brings in a high level defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both YPG and YPP allowed. They also run the ball well (157 YPG) and they are facing a Gamecock defense that ranks 98th defending the run. This sets up as a letdown afternoon game for SC after their rousing atmosphere last Saturday evening vs A&M. They are 1-7-1 ATS following an ATS win and we feel Missouri is actually the better team here. Take the points. |
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10-29-22 | Old Dominion v. Georgia State OVER 54 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
#151/152 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 54 Points – Old Dominion vs Georgia State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We have this total set closer to 60 points and feel there is some solid value on the Over in this one. The Old Dominion offense is humming right now but this total doesn’t suggest that. This total seems to be set based on their year long numbers rather than their recent run. After averaging 18 PPG through their first 3 games of the season, ODU has put up an average of 31 PPG over their last 4 games. They are averaging 433 YPG during that 4 game stretch which would place them 35th nationally in total offense if we were to use those 4 games only. However, because of their early season struggles, they rank 72nd in total offense. It’s also possible this total is set lower than it should be in our opinion based on ODU’s game last week vs the high scoring Georgia Southern Eagles. The 2 teams combined to score 51 points despite the total being set at 66. That result was very misleading as the 2 teams combined for 861 total yards on 6.1 yards per play. There were 20 offensive possessions in that game and only 4 punts. In that game the 2 teams combined for 3 missed FG’s and 4 times they were shut out on downs. The Georgia State offense has been solid all year. They are averaging 28 PPG and that includes a 14 point performance vs South Carolina to open the season. Five of their last six totals have been set at 60+ points and the only won that was not was their game vs Army (was set at 54) and the Cadets run the ball 55 times per game and are one of the slowest paced teams in the country. That game was the only Georgia State game that landed below 59 points in their last 6 outings. Both offenses will have success here. The defenses are bad ranking 114th and 116th nationally (out of 131) in total defense. Unlike their game vs Army, ODU is a fast paced team ranking 20th in seconds per play and Georgia State ranks 10th in that category. With the spread set a GSU -3 the expected outcome of this game is 29-26. We like both teams to top their expected team total and wouldn’t be surprised of both got to 30 in this one. Over is the play. |
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10-28-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida International +6.5 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
#114 ASA PLAY ON 8* Florida International +6.5 over Louisiana Tech, Friday at 8 PM ET - We like the fight in this FIU team. They looked like potentially the worst team on CFB earlier this year but they’ve improved dramatically under head coach Mike MacIntyre. Since getting absolutely embarrassed by Western Kentucky back in late September, this team is 2-2 and has outgained 3 of their last 4 opponents. Last week they blitzed Charlotte as a 14 point underdog winning by 19 points outright. The Panthers outgained Charlotte by 116 yards and they led 34-0 in the 4th quarter before the 49ers picked up a few meaningless points late. FIU has covered 3 of their last 4 games, each by at least 2 TD’s. They face a La Tech team coming off a home OT loss vs Rice. The Bulldogs were outgained by 114 yards in the game and have now been outgained in EVERY game with the exception of FCS Stephen F Austin. LT has been outgained by 884 total yards in their 6 games vs FBS opponents for an average YPG margin of -147. Their defense has been an absolute sieve ranking dead last in the nation (131st) in rush defense, 130th in scoring defense, and 129th in both total defense and YPP allowed (7.0). The FIU defense has been respectable allowing just 5.5 YPP on the season so we have a big edge defensively with the home dog. LT has lost all 4 road games this season each by at least 18 points and while those opponents were better than FIU, let’s not forget that La Tech is FAVORED by a TD or more in this one depending on where you play. That’s a Bulldog team that has won just 2 of their last 17 road games outright. They als have issues at the QB position with starter McNeil and backup Downing both exiting last week with injuries leaving freshman Lyddy at the helm to finish the game. We’ll take the points here with FIU at home on Friday night. |
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10-22-22 | Kansas State +3.5 v. TCU | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
#317 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +3.5 over TCU, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Very solid situation advantage spot for KSU in this game. The Wildcats are coming off a bye week and they are facing a TCU team that is playing their 5th consecutive Saturday and all have been big games so to speak. The last 4 weeks the Horned Frogs have played cross town arch rival SMU, Big 12 power Oklahoma (OU played without their starting QB), an undefeated at the time Kansas team, and a huge game last week vs Oklahoma State. Last week they trailed at home to OSU by 14 in the 4th quarter, pushed the game to OT where TCU won 43-40 on double OT. Can the Frogs possibly bring their “A” game again this week vs a high level opponent off a bye? We don’t think so. That was such a tough stretch of games we just don’t see it. KSU steps into this game with a 5-1 SU record (4-1-1 ATS) facing the 26th toughest schedule in the country. They have won 3 straight vs Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Iowa State. The Cats have the defensive advantage here allowing 40 fewer total YPG and 0.4 fewer YPP. TCU’s offensive numbers are impressive, however we think the Wildcats will have some very solid success on the ground and control this game in the trenches. KSU QB Martinez (former Nebraska starter) has been very solid this year both through the air (900 yards passing and 4 TD’s) and on the ground (546 yards rushing) and can be very difficult to defend. TCU has decent defensive numbers vs the rush, however this will be the best running team they’ve faced this season (KSU ranks 7th nationally at 244 rush YPG). The one similar type team TCU faced was Kansas who has a mobile QB and can run the ball. In that game KU’s QB Daniels went out early in the game and the Jayhawks were still able to put up nearly 200 yards rushing. The early week forecast calls for 20 MPH winds which will definitely benefit KSU as TCU passes the ball much more often (10 more attempts per game). This one sets up very nicely for the dog and we’ll grab Kansas State. |
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10-22-22 | Boise State +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
#407 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State +2.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way Boise is trending here after QB Bachmeier decided to transfer and they’ve been starting Green at QB. The defense was always very good, they just couldn’t get anything going on offense with Bachmeier under center. If we throw out their FCS game vs UT Martin, the offense under Bachmeier averaged 19 PPG and just 268 total YPG. In their 2 games since Green took over they have crushed San Diego State and Fresno State, the Broncos are averaging 37.5 PPG and 446 total YPG. As we stated, the defense has been great ranking 2nd in the nation in YPG (235) allowed and 5th in YPP allowed (4.1). The Boise rush defense has been top notch allowing just 101 YPG on 3.0 YPC which is key vs an Air Force offense thar runs the ball an average of 59 times per game (2nd most in the nation). Boise has also had two full weeks to prepare for this offense coming off last week’s bye. Air Force is coming off a big win over UNLV but we feel they are trending downward. The Rebels had a number of injuries last week including their starting QB who didn’t play in the game giving AF a big advantage. In their 2 games without their starting QB Brumfield, UNLV has lost by a combined score of 82-14 which tells you how important he is. Prior to last week, the Falcons struggled to beat a down Navy team 13-10 and lost to Utah State with USU playing their back up QB. While Boise is off their bye, AF is playing for the 8th consecutive week. Undervalued vs Overvalued here in our opinion. Take the dog Boise State. |
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10-22-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 58.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
#363/364 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 58.5 Points - Eastern Michigan vs Ball State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Let’s start with the defenses in this game, or should we say the lack of defense. In terms of basic scoring defense these two units rank near the bottom of college football in points allowed per game with EMU giving up 32.7PPG (113th) while Ball State allows 29.3PPG (89th). Both teams allow 5.3-Yards Per Play which is slightly above the national average, but these two teams have played the 124th and 119th easiest schedule. Ball State is 95th in Yards Per Point defense allowing 1-point for every 13 yards gained. EMU is 120th in YPPT defense giving up a point for every 11.6 yards gained. The offenses for both teams have had some highs and lows this season. Eastern Michigan has scored 30 or more points in 3 games against FBS schools but are coming off 10-points last week against Northern Illinois. UNI dominated the time of possession with their running game (287-rush yards) that is 29th best in the nation, which limited the Eagles offensive opportunities. That won’t be the case here as Ball State is 83rd in rushing at 133.7RYPG. Ball State is averaging 25.7PPG on the season but 30.3PPG in conference play. Pace of play favors a high scoring game here also with Ball State ranking as the 8th fastest paced team in college football, Eastern ranks 42nd. Historically this has been a high scoring series with 5 of the last six meetings going Over the total and 13 of the last sixteen overall. |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +4 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 7:30PM ET - Kentucky got off to a great start to the season but has now lost two straight games. The Cats most recent loss to South Carolina has impacted this line and given us more value with the home underdog. Last week UK was without future NFL 1st rounder QB Will Levis who practiced this week and is back for this game. Additionally, this is a spot to sell high on Mississippi State, who is off a pair of huge SEC wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M. Not to mention the Bulldogs have a monster game on deck against Alabama. The Bulldogs benefitted from facing a pair of back up QB’s in their last two wins and were +5 in turnovers. The MSU defense still gave up 483-total yards to Arkansas and 388-yards to Texas A&M. The one road game against a comparable opponent to Kentucky was versus LSU and the Bulldogs were outgained by 129-yards and lost by 15-points. The Wildcats should have success with their running game against a Bulldog defense that gives up 139.8-rushing yards per game (56th) which will then open up the passing attack for Levis. Kentucky also allows the 14th least passing yards per game at 182.2 with opponents completing just 15.8-pass attempts per game which is 13th in the nation. Last season MISS ST won at home 31-17 as a 1-point favorite. The home team has covered 8-straight in this series with the host winning by an average of +15.5PPG. |
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10-15-22 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -6.5 | 27-47 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
#198 ASA PLAY ON 8* North Texas -6.5 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on La Tech last week in a perfect situation for the Bulldogs. They were coming off a bye week and were facing UTEP who was playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. On top of that, 3 of UTEP’s previous 4 opponents were ranked among the worst college teams in the country and the Miners lost one of those games and won two which were both down to the wire. Despite our win with LT, we were unimpressed to say the least. In the 10 point win the Bulldogs were outgained by 120 yards and allowed over 500 yards to a UTEP offense that came into the game ranked 92nd in total offense. Even worse, the allowed the Miners to control the line of scrimmage with UTEP putting up 181 yards rushing on 4.8 YPC compared to 114 yards on 3.5 YPC for Tech. UTEP came into the game ranked 87th averaging only 3.7 YPC. Those defensive numbers for LT will be a huge problem in this game. That’s because North Texas is among the best rushing teams in the nation averaging 217 YPG (16th nationally) on 4.6 YPC. The Mean Green should have a field day on the ground vs a Tech defense allowing 220 YPG on 5.5 YPC. Those poor rush defense numbers come vs teams ranked 37th, 50th, 67th, and 87th in rushing offense. Subtract their game vs FCS Stephen F Austin and the Bulldogs have been outgained in every game. They are -80 YPG on the season and they’ve been outyarded on the ground by an average of 120 YPG. Not only can UNT run the ball very well, they have an experienced 3 year starter at QB, Austin Aune, that has thrown for nearly 6,000 career yards and 38 TD’s. This offense will be a big problem for a LT defense that ranks 119th nationally in YPG allowed and 123rd in PPG allowed at 37.2. The Mean Green are rested and they’ve been waiting for this game after losing 24-17 @ La Tech last season despite outgaining the Bulldogs in that game and crushing them on the ground 241 to 79. We’ll lay it with North Texas in this one. |
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10-15-22 | Kent State +8 v. Toledo | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#117 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent +8 over Toledo, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We always take a strong look at underdogs that have a potent offense and that’s what we have here. And we’re getting more than a TD which is a bonus. Kent’s overall offensive numbers aren’t spectacular this season, however much of that has to do with the schedule they’ve played. They’ve already faced Georgia, Oklahoma, and Washington this season and their strength of schedule is ranked 26th nationally. Compare that to Toledo’s SOS which is 135th and we feel Kent is more prepared for this match up. When stepping away from those high level Power 5 teams, the Golden Flashes offensive numbers are very good averaging 39 PPG and 570 YPG in their other 3 contests. In their 2 games vs MAC opponents the last 2 weeks, Kent has put up almost 1,200 yards! They are coming off a close loss last week as a 5 point favorite @ Miami OH. Toledo is stepping into this game off a very deceiving 52-32 win over Northern Illinois last week. The Rockets were outgained by 75 yards in that win, they had 2 pick 6’s, they were +4 in turnovers, and NIU played without their starting QB. Toledo’s offensive numbers aren’t great (ranked 78th in total offense) despite playing a very easy schedule as we mentioned. Defensively they have some decent stats but besides Ohio State, who scored 77 points and put up almost 800 yards on this Rocket defense, they’ve faced a very poor offensive schedule with their other opponents ranked 68th, 71st, 125th, and 129th in total offense. Their 3 FBS wins this season have come against NIU, CMU, UMass who are all 1-5 SU on the season for a combined record of 3-15. We like Kent to give Toledo all they can handle here and we expect them to have a shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
#101/102 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 47 Points – Louisiana vs Marshall, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Louisiana offense has been struggling all season and it’s not a big surprise. After losing QB Lewis and a number of key offensive players, they ranked 113th in returning offensive production entering the season and it has showed. The rank outside the top 100 in total offense, rushing offense and passing offense. They’ve had one good offensive output this year vs Eastern Michigan in early September, but since then they’ve scored 21, 17, and 17 points their last 3 games vs Rice, UL Monroe, and South Alabama. The Rajun Cajuns scored a defensive or special teams TD in 2 of those 3 games so their offense is really averaging just 13.6 PPG over their last 3 games. They’ll be facing a really good Marshall defense in this game (ranked 12th nationally in total defense) so we don’t look for much offense from Louisiana. They are allowing just 15 PPG on the season and held Notre Dame to 21 points in an upset in South Bend in September. Offensively Marshall runs the ball, a lot. They average 45 rushing attempts per game ranking them 10th nationally. The ULL defense is solid vs the run allowing just 133 YPG on the ground. Neither team has an explosive passing attack ranking 99th and 105th in passing YPG. As you might expect when looking at the stats, neither team has a high level passing QB and both teams have rotated 2 QB’s this season. We expect a lot of running in this game which eats clock. Both defenses stop the run very well (Marshall is 3rd nationally in rush defense & ULL is 46th) so this could very well turn into a grinder. Marshall games this season are averaging 45 total PPG and Louisiana games are averaging 46 total PPG. We like the UNDER in this one. |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#356 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa State +1.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - ISU is in must win mode at home here after losing back to back games vs Baylor (lost by 7) and Kansas (lost by 3). In their 14-11 loss @ KU last week the Cyclones outgained Jayhawks by 100+ yards but missed 3 of their 4 FG’s in a game they should have won. Make note the ISU kicker was perfect on the season coming into the game so it’s not as if that has been a problem in the past. KSU is off back to back huge wins vs Oklahoma and Texas Tech but were outgained in both. The game prior to that the Wildcats lost at home to Tulane and the yardage was dead even. The Cats are a bit fortunate to be 4-1 as they’ve only outgained their 5 opponents by an average of 33 YPG but they are already +9 turnovers this season. KSU averages just 150 YPG passing (115th nationally) and they rely heavily on their running game to move the offense. That might be tough here as they are facing an Iowa State defense that 8th in the country in total defense (255 YPG allowed) and 7th in rush defense giving up just 83 YPG. Last week the ISU defense faced a Kansas offense that ranked 13th in rushing (228 YPG) to barely 100 yards on 3.6 YPC. The Cyclones have outgained their opponents this year by +126 YPG and their defense is allowing only 4.4 YPP which is a full 1 YPP better than KSU’s stop unit. The Clones were favored by 6.5 at Kansas State last year (and won) and this year they are home underdogs. Too much of a line swing in our opinion and with games vs Texas and Oklahoma on deck, this is a huge home game for Iowa State. We have this game powered to dead even so we like the value with the host. |
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10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -2.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
#408 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech -2.5 over UTEP, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UTEP playing their 2nd straight road game (and 3rd in 4 weeks) after winning a tight one at Charlotte last week. The Miners were outgained in that 41-35 win @ Charlotte but had 2 defensive TD’s including a 100 yard fumble return which was a 14 point swing in a tight game. UTEP is 3-1 over their last 4 games but their opponents have been weak as they faced New Mexico (lost by 17), NM State (won by 7) and Charlotte (won by 6) during that stretch, 3 teams we have rated 122, 124, and 128 nationally (out of 131 teams). The Miners could have easily lost all 3 of those games vs very poor opponents. La Tech is in a nice spot here coming off a bye week. They’ve lost their last 2 games but played strong competition losing to Clemson (undefeated) and South Alabama, whose only loss was by 1 point @ UCLA. La Tech has also already played Missouri this year and they have a strength of schedule rated 20th nationally compared to UTEP which ranks 116th in that category. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Bulldogs have the better offensive numbers with more YPG and they average a full TD more per game than UTEP. The Miners have the better defensive numbers but they’ve faced 4 offenses this year ranked 129th, 125th, 112th, and 85th. The Bulldogs were favored on the road in this meeting by 6.5 points last year and they were upset by UTEP and now we get them at a much cheaper price, at home, and in a very good situational spot. |
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10-08-22 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tech steps in with a 3-2 record but they’ve outgained every opponent this year but the Red Raiders were -6 turnovers in their 2 losses to NC State and Kansas State. In their 9 point loss @ KSU last week the Raiders had a shot but had 4 turnovers, missed a FG, and were shut out on downs once. In the loss, Tech was +11 first downs, +14 yards, and +5 minutes TOP. They catch OSU in a great letdown spot here. The Cowboys have played one of the weaker schedules in power 5 (90th SOS) and they’ve been waiting and preparing for their rematch vs Baylor last week. That’s because the Bears topped OSU in the Big 12 Championship game last year. They played that game last week vs Baylor and picked up their revenge win but they were outgained by the Bears 457 to 379. It was the first legit opponent the Cowboys have faced this season after wins over Central Michigan, Arkansas Pine Bluff, and an Arizona State program in upheaval. Despite playing the much tougher schedule (8th SOS nationally) Texas Tech is +122 YPG compared to OSU who is +82 YPG despite playing an easy slate. Tech ranks higher nationally in both total offense AND total defense and if they can eliminate the turnovers, we think they can win this game outright. The Raiders have been waiting for this one after getting embarrassed 23-0 at home vs OSU last year when the Cowboys had one of the top defensive units in the nation. Not so much this year as the Cowboys lost 63% of their defensive production (20th most nationally) and their defensive coordinator is now at Ohio State. Tech is sitting in a great spot here and we’ll call this one down to the wire. Take the generous points. |
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10-07-22 | Houston v. Memphis OVER 57.5 | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
ASA play on 8* OVER 57.5 Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers, 7:30 PM ET - In Friday night's action we like OVER the total in the Houston/Memphis game. These two teams met last year with Houston winning 31-13. The Cougs put up 462-total yards in the game compared to the Tigers 322. The difference this year is that Houston isn’t near as good defensively as they were a season ago. Last year the Cougars were 16th in Yards Per Play defense at 4.9 and gave up just 22PPG. This season they allow 5.5YPP (65th) and 34PPG (98th) respectively. This Memphis offense is more than capable of putting up points in this game as they rank 25th in scoring at 34.4PPG. The Tigers rank 17th in Yards Per Point offense at 11.7 so they score with bigger plays and not time-consuming drives. Memphis will also have a hard time stopping this Houston offense that is putting up 31PPG and 391YPG. The Tigers have given up 32+ points against the three good offenses they’ve faced this season and have allowed 28 or more points in 6 of their last eight games dating back to last season. Houston should be able to exploit a Memphis pass defense that is 123rd in the nation allowing 288-passing yards per game. An average college game this season finishes with 58 total points. This game is going to be higher scoring than ‘average’ given the pace of play and offensive/defensive advantages. BET OVER! |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show |
#421 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SMU +3 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Mustangs are desperate for a win coming in off back to back losses to strong opponents Maryland & TCU. SMU lost by a single score to each and outgained Maryland on the road and played almost dead even yardage wise to TCU, the same Horned Frog team that destroyed Oklahoma last week. In UCF’s most recent game they were completely outplayed by a below average Georgia Tech team but somehow pulled out the win. The Yellow Jackets outgained UCF by 119 yards but allowed the Knights to block a punt for a TD. In UCF’s only other game vs a legit opponent, they were outgained and beaten at home by Louisville. So the Knights were outplayed by both of their legit opponents and both of those teams (GT & Louisville) currently have losing records. SMU’s offense has been outstanding averaging over 500 YPG and 38.5 PPG. They’re defensive numbers aren’t great when compared to the UCF defense, however they’ve played the MUCH tougher schedule. The Mustang defense has already played 3 offenses ranked inside the top 23 nationally including TCU who ranks 2nd in the country in total offense. When these two met last season, SMU was favored by 7 at home and outgained the Knights by 300 yards and won the game 55-28. Now they are getting a FG in this game. Compare that to SMU’s games vs TCU and Maryland in which they were +2.5 in each telling us this line is off. This game was scheduled for last Saturday but had to be rescheduled due to the affects of Hurricane Ian in the Orlando area. UCF has been dealing with the distractions that go along with this which isn’t ideal. SMU gets the cover on Wednesday. |
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10-01-22 | Indiana v. Nebraska OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
#211/212 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – Indiana vs Nebraska, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These are 2 of the fastest paced teams in college football so we expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game. Indiana runs a play every 17 seconds which is 1st in the nation and Nebraska every 22 seconds which is 15th nationally. The defenses in this match up should provide lots of scoring opportunities to their opponents. The Husker defense has been brutal all season long. Throwing out their game vs FCS North Dakota, the Nebraska defense is allowing 42 PPG on the season vs Northwestern, Georgia Southern, and Oklahoma. Each of those teams scored their season high in points (minus FCS games) vs this Nebraska defense. Even a fairly pedestrian NW offense put up 31 points and over 500 yards! They rank outside the top 100 in scoring, rush & pass defense. The Huskers did fire their defensive coordinator after allowing 49 points to Oklahoma and appointed Bill Busch, their special teams coordinator to call plays on the defensive side of the ball. We don’t think it will matter. If the Huskers were EVER going to rally and play tough on defense it was after they fired head coach Frost going into their game vs Oklahoma. They fell flat again on that side of the ball giving up almost 600 yards. The Hoosier offense has been a bright spot this year averaging over 400 YPG and 29 PPG. Even vs 2 top tier defenses (Illinois & Cincinnati) both in the top 11 nationally in YPP allowed, the Hoosiers scored 23 and 24 points. On the other side of the ball the Indiana defense has not been good allowing 75 points in their last 2 games vs WKU & Cincinnati. Last week the Bearcats had 38 points at halftime before calling off the dogs in a 45-24 win. While their defense has been poor, the Nebraska offense has moved the ball this year averaging 455 YPG which ranks them 31st nationally. QB Thompson, a Texas transfer, has been solid averaging 250 YPG passing on 65% completions. He should shred an IU defense that has allowed almost 700 yards passing the last 2 weeks. Last year these 2 met in Indiana and the final score was 38-31 with almost 1,000 yards of total offense. We anticipate a fast paced, high scoring game in Lincoln on Saturday. |
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10-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa OVER 57.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
#159/160 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 57.5 Points - Cincinnati vs. Tulsa, Saturday at 7PM ET - There seems to be quite a bit of action on Tulsa in this matchup, but we feel the value is on the OVER. Last year when these two met they produced 48-points but Tulsa was stopped on 8 downs inside the 12-yard line in the last two minutes. The key to this bet or not is the status of Tulsa QB Brin who left last weeks game against Mississippi with an ankle sprain. The early reports are that he is available and will play Saturday but be sure to double-check prior to kickoff. Brin is 4th in passing yards per game this season at 358PYPG, 8th in passing TD’s and is completing 63% of his passes. Cincinnati may be without their top cornerback Bush here which also benefits Tulsa’s passing attack. On paper, the Bearcats have a solid pass D but inside the numbers tells a different story. Last week UC faced a pass-first team in Indiana and allowed 280-passing yards which is well above their season average of 182 (28th). That lofty national ranking is largely due to playing Arkansas, Miami OH and Kennesaw State. Arkansas and Miami rank 104th and 124th respectively in Pass O. Cincinnati is going to score their fair share in this game also. The Bearcats are 14th in passing yards per game, 39th in total yards per game and 16th in scoring. Tulsa’s defense has given up an average of 31.8PPG which ranks them 99th in the country. Lastly, both teams prefer to play fast with Cincinnati ranking 45th in plays per second, Tulsa ranks 25th. Lots of possessions means plenty of scoring here. |
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10-01-22 | Liberty -3.5 v. Old Dominion | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
#137 ASA PLAY ON 8* Liberty -3.5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 6 PM ET - There may be some remnants of Hurricane Ian for this game with possible wind and rain. That heavily favors the team that can run the ball better and that is absolutely Liberty in this one. The Flames average just under 200 YPG rushing and they’ll be facing an ODU defense that ranks 112th nationally at stopping the run allowing 188 YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Monarchs can’t run at all and have consistently been beaten in the trenches this year. They have not topped 2.5 YPC in any game this season and they are averaging only 63 YPG rushing on 25 carries. They have been outrushed by a whopping 500 yards in 4 games this season and their YPC differential is -1.7. ODU steps into this game with a 2-2 record but they could easily be 0-4. Their two wins both came by 3 points and they had a defensive TD in each of those 2 wins. The ODU offense just isn’t very good. They rank 110th or lower in PPG, total YPG, and rushing YPG. While passing is the key to their offense, they only rank 76th in passing YPG. Liberty’s pass defense has been solid allowing 211 YPG and just 6.8 yards per attempt and that includes a game vs one of the top offenses in the nation, Wake Forest. Speaking of that game, the Flames outplayed Wake on the road in that game, outgaining the Demon Deacons by almost 100 yards, but lost by a single point. This number is a bit lower than it should be because Liberty laid an egg last week beating a bad Akron team by just 9 points. First of all it was a letdown spot after they nearly beat WF a week earlier and Liberty played their 3rd string QB last week due to injuries. The starting QB Salter is back this week along with 2 starting offensive linemen who sat out vs Akron. The 3-1 Flames have outgained every opponent they’ve faced this season while ODU has been outgained by every opponent they’ve faced. When these teams faced off last year Liberty was favored by 26 points and won the game 45-17. Now they are laying only around a FG this season? This should be a mismatch in the trenches and we’ll side with Liberty to win by more than a FG in this game. |
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10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Mississippi State -3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Well we went against A&M last week and should have won and we’re coming back this week and fading this overrated team. Last Saturday they were favored by 2 vs Arkansas and won 23-21 pushing the spread. The fact is, Arkansas completely outplayed the Aggies with a total yardage edge of 415 to 343 and a 244 to 192 advantage on the ground. One play changed the entire game for the underdog Razors. With Arkansas up 14-7 very late in 2nd quarter and driving for a score inside the A&M 5 yard line. Razor QB fumbles and it’s returned 97 yards for a TD for a 14 point swing. Arkansas also missed a 42 yard FG at the end that would have won the game. Arkansas was the correct side in that game. In the 2 weeks prior A&M lost at home to App State and then beat Miami by 8 but the Aggies were outgained by 130+ yards in that game and beaten in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining just 3.9 YPC. That’s the same App State team that needed a hail mary 2 weeks ago to beat Troy and then lost at home to James Madison last week (we were on JMU). That’s also the same Miami team that lost by 14 points at home vs Middle Tenn State last Saturday. A&M could easily be sitting with a 1-3 record right now. This will be their first true road game of the season and they have Alabama on deck so not an ideal situation. The Aggie offense has been bad to say the least. If we take out their defensive and special teams TD’s this year, the actual offense has scored only 5 touchdowns in 3 games (minus their FCS game vs Sam Houston). The Aggies have been outgained in each of their 3 FBS games by a total of more than 300 yards. They’ve already switched QB’s from King to Johnson and neither has been good. This offense currently ranks outside the top 100 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and PPG. They face a Mississippi State team that is very dangerous offensively. The Bulldogs returned 71% of their offensive production from a team that averaged 29 PPG last year including QB Rogers who threw for almost 5000 yards last year and 36 TD’s. This year he’s already thrown for 1400 yards and 16 TD’s and the Bulldogs are averaging 37 PPG. The MSU defense was solid last season allowing 345 YPG and they returned over 80% of their production on that side of the ball (5th most nationally). This season they are allowing 319 YPG and we don’t see A&M having much success on offense. Last year MSU went into Texas A&M and won the game 26-22 outgaining the Aggies 438 to 297. We don’t see anything changing this year. Mississippi State gets the win and cover at home. |
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10-01-22 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -2.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
#918 ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo -2.5 vs. Miami OH, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Buffalo was a dark-horse team of ours to win the MAC this season while Miami was one of the favorites. Both returned a ton of talent which was a big reason why both had Conference Title aspirations. Miami is without their starting QB Gabbert who was injured in the season opener against Kentucky. Aveon Smith has taken over as the starter and has not impressed anyone with his numbers. Smith is 32 of 66 for a total of 346 yards or 5.0-Yards Per Completion. He has just 6 TDs to 2 INT’s. This makes the Redhawks one-dimensional offensively. The onus will be on Buffalo’s defense to stop the running game of Miami. The Bulls haven’t been great in that defensive category allowing 169-Rushing Yards Per game which is 87th in the nation. In the Bulls defense, they’ve played three teams this season that all rank top 53 in rushing yards per game offensively. Miami (OH) is 89th in rushing offense at 131YPG. Buffalo’s passing attack which averages 260-Passing Yards Per game can exploit a Redhawk defense which ranks 106th in the nation allowing 270PYPG. Miami is coming off a big upset win over a Big Ten team in Northwestern, despite getting outgained by -86-yards. Last year Miami embarrassed Buffalo 45-18 and we expect payback here. The home team has covered 5 straight in the series and the favorite is 11-2-1 ATS the last fourteen meetings. Lay it! |
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09-30-22 | Tulane +2.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
#105 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulane +2.5 over Houston, Friday at 7 PM ET - Tulane is coming off a tough loss, a game the absolutely should have won. They played host to a much improved Southern Miss team and despite losing 27-24 they outgained the Golden Eagles by 200 yards! The Green Wave were +13 first downs, +145 yards rushing, and +13 minute time of possession. Tulane missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs 3 times in USM territory. They entered the game off a huge road win @ Kansas State, which looks like a great win now after KSU just beat Oklahoma last week. It was their first loss and non cover of the season and they are +25 points vs the spread in their 4 games this year (undervalued). Houston, on the other hand, is just 1-3 ATS and their only spread win was by a half point. The Cougars are now -38 points vs the spread this season (overvalued). Houston struggled last week at home to beat a bad Rice team 34-27. The yardage was dead even and it took a Cougar defensive score in the final minutes to pull out the 7 point win (they were favored by 17). Houston is -50 YPG and dead even YPP differential after 4 games. Tulane is +200 YPG and +2.3 YPP through 4 games. The dog is coming off a shocking loss and the better team here. They’ll be ready and we like Tulane. |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
#403 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played at the Cowboys home stadium on Saturday. Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We’ve been unimpressed with A&M this season and feel they are drastically overvalued right now. We were on them in a perfect spot a few weeks ago when they played host to App State who was coming off 63-61 loss to UNC a week earlier. The Heels rolled up huge numbers vs the App State defense yet A&M at home was only able to score 14 points on 186 total yards. That speaks volumes to how this Aggie offense is struggling right now. They followed that loss up last week with a 17-9 win over Miami FL in which TAMU had only 265 total yards. Thus, in their 2 games since beating Sam Houston State to open the season, the Aggies have scored 31 total points on just 451 total yards. They’ve been outgained by a combined 257 total yards in those 2 games. They’ve allowed 49 first downs in those 2 games while accumulating just 25 first downs offensively. A&M has already made a switch at QB from Haynes to Johnson, but the stats haven’t been great for either. Johnson started last week and completed just 50% of his passes in a game A&M was also outplayed in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining only 3.9 YPC on offense. It was a game the Canes should have won and we’re getting some value here because the Aggies won on the scoreboard. While their offense is struggling, the Razorbacks are not. Last week they struggled a bit in a letdown spot with Missouri State but still put up big numbers. Despite their -3 turnover ratio for the game, the Razors won and put up 600 total yards. They’ve now rolled up 447, 462, and 600 yards in their 3 games to go along with 113 total points (37.6 PPG). Two of those games were vs Cincinnati and South Carolina so we’re not talking about cupcake city here. Arkansas will control the trenches as they’ve outgained their opponents by 500+ yards on the ground this season while the Aggies have been outgained in the run game by 140 yards. Last year when these 2 met A&M was a 4 point favorite and Arkansas won the game by 10 points outgaining the Aggies by 170 total yards. We don’t see anything changing here. TAMU is talented but still quite young and we like Arkansas, who has a much better QB situation with Jefferson (770 yards passing / 170 yards rushing / 9 TD’s this year) to win again. |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois v. Kentucky UNDER 54 | Top | 23-31 | Push | 0 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54 Points – Northern Illinois vs Kentucky, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game that stood out to us immediately was the pace of play for both teams. Kentucky takes 29.2 seconds to run a play which is the 123rd slowest tempo in college football. NIU plays at the exact same pace. UK is 111th in plays per game at 62.5. No. Illinois is 107th at 63-plays per/game. With a limited number of plays that means you need big plays to score a lot of points. UK is 78th in Yards Per Play at 5.3, NIU is 49th at 5.9. Kentucky hosted another MAC team in Miami OH earlier this season and that game finished with 50-total points. MIA OH was predicted as the best team in the conference in preseason rankings and they managed just 290-total yards of offense and 13-points against the Cats. Northern Illinois has given up 38-points in each of their last two games, but those big numbers came against the 14th highest scoring team in CFB and the 26th highest. Both teams have big conference games on deck so expect a sluggish game throughout. |
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09-24-22 | James Madison +7 v. Appalachian State | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
#357 ASA PLAY ON 8* James Madison +7 over Appalachian State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible spot for App State here. They are now off 3 hugely emotional games to start the season and face a team that is in their first year of making the move from FCS to FBS. ASU lost 63-61 in their season opener vs big boy in-stater UNC missing a 2 point conversion that would have sent it to OT. Then they traveled to Texas A&M and pulled a huge upset winning in College Station 17-14. A&M has shown us they are not nearly as good as people thought (including us). Last week ESPN college game day was in Boone, NC for the App State vs Troy game so another game to get up for. On top of that, ASU scored on a hail mary on the final play of the game winning 32-28 in their first conference game. James Madison had last week off after winning their first 2 games by a combined score of 107-14! They outgained Middle Tennessee State and Norfolk State by a combined almost 700 yards. Their 44-7 win over MTSU looks more impressive after the Blue Raiders went on to win their next 2 games by 15 and 43 points covering those games by a combined 52 points. JMU was one of the top few programs in FCS over the last 5 or so seasons so their success thus far is not surprising. The Dukes have been very balanced offensively with more than 200 yards both passing and rushing in each of their first 2 games. JMU made it to the FCS Final 4 or National Championship game in 5 of the last 6 seasons. Their overall record during that stretch was 70-11. This is a great program that will come more than ready to play in their first ever Sun Belt Conference game vs a team that we would almost guarantee is in for a letdown this week. We think they have a great shot at the outright win and getting a TD is a very nice cushion. |
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09-24-22 | Duke v. Kansas OVER 63 | 27-35 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
#361/362 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 63 Points – Duke vs Kansas, Saturday at 12 PM ET - No this isn’t a college hoops match up of top 5 teams but it is a game with 2 solid offenses and 2 bad defense that should keep the scoreboard lighting up. Kansas HC Leipold is an offensive genius and has turned around every program he’s taken over. His UW Whitewater teams (Division 3) won 6 National Championships in his 8 years. He took over a Buffalo program that had a losing record when he came in and in his final year the Bulls had just 1 loss and was averaging 44 PPG. He has this Kansas team playing great offensively as they’ve scored 56, 55, and 48 points in their 3 games. They are coming off back to back road upsets @ West Virginia and @ Houston. They should have a field day vs a Duke defense that has OK overall numbers but they are very deceiving. The Blue Devils shut out Temple 30-0 to pad their defensive stats but the Owls have scored a grand total of 14 points vs their 2 FBS foes this season. In their 31-23 win over Northwestern, they allowed the Wildcats to gain over 500 total yards and the Cats blew numerous scoring opportunities. The Duke offense has looked very good scoring at least 30 points in every game this season. They face a Jayhawk defense that has played 2 FBS foes (WVU & Houston) and they’ve allowed 72 points in those 2 games combined. Both offenses look drastically better than last year’s which both finished outside the top 100 in total offense. Despite that, when these 2 met last year they put up 85 total points and over 1,100 total yards in a 52-33 Duke win. The weather in Lawrence looks perfect for a high scoring game on Saturday with temps around 80 degrees and very light winds. This one should be a shootout. |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State +2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Interesting line here. The 3-0 Chanticleers are favored by just 2.5 over the 0-3 Panthers? Looks too easy based on the records and we agree. Our power ratings have Georgia State favored here so we grab the value with the home dog rather than simply looking at the current records. The Panthers played 2 very tough opponents to open the season losing @ South Carolina and at home vs UNC. Last week they surprisingly lost 42-41 but had over 600 yards of total offense and outgained the 49ers by over 100 total yards. Charlotte’s starting QB returned after missing 2 games which helped along with a 52 yard fumble returned for a TD for the 49ers and a TD with 17 seconds left to win. Georgia State has outgained 2 of their 3 opponents and for the season by 60 yards which points to the fact they are MUCH better than their 0-3 record. Panthers return 77% of their offensive + defensive production (14th nationally) from a team that went 8-5 last season, won their bowl game by 31 points, and nearly upset Auburn on the road. Starting QB Grainger is back after throwing for 19 TD’s and just 4 picks last season to go along with a very potent ground attack. The Panthers have topped 200 yards rushing in each of their first 3 (averaging 231 YPG on the ground) including games vs SEC and ACC defenses. Coastal has played the much easier schedule with all 3 games at home thus far vs Army, Buffalo, and Gardner Webb. They were lucky to beat FCS Gardner Webb getting outgained by 140 yards. Last week CC was trailing Buffalo (now 0-3 SU record) entering the 4th quarter but picked up a fumble recovery for a TD which turned the game and led to a 12 point win. The 3 teams CC has beaten this year (all at home) have a 2-7 SU combined record. Now they go on the road for the first time vs a desperate team that absolutely has to have this win. Last year Coastal had a much better team than they have right now and this Georgia State team won that match up on the road 42-40. Take GSU as a home dog here. |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State v. Utah -21 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
#200 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah -21 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. San Diego State has taken a huge step back from last year’s team that went 12-2 on the season. They have been very unimpressive in both of their games so far this season with an 0-2 ATS record (1-1 SU) failing to cover the spread by a combined 27 points. In their season opener they played host to Arizona, who we have power rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. It was a hugely important game as SDSU opened their brand new on campus stadium for that one. The Aztecs were dominated to the tune of 38-20 and they were outgained by 230 yards. Arizona followed that up by getting thrashed at home by Mississippi State last week. SDSU’s other game was a 38-7 win over Idaho State who ranks as a lower tier FCS team. The Aztecs had a special teams TD in that one and outgained a bad Idaho State team by “only” 150 yards. The reason we say that is because a week prior Idaho State was outgained by 300+ yards vs UNLV, far from a solid college program. After losing to a bad Pac 12 team by 18 points at home in their opener, San Diego State now they face the team we have power rated as the best in the Pac 12 and it’s on the road. It’s also a huge revenger for Utah after losing in OT last year at SDSU. The Utes have been waiting for this one and they are coming off a 73-7 win over Southern Utah last week after losing their opener by 3 points @ Florida. If Arizona can score 38 points on the Aztecs, we can’t imagine what this potent Utah offense will do. The Utes have over 1000 total yards in just 2 games including an impressive 446 @ Florida. San Diego State won’t keep up here. They can’t pass (just 170 yards passing in 2 games) and they won’t be able to run very successfully vs a solid Utah front that finished 26th nationally vs the run last year. The Utes won every home game last year by double digits by an average margin of +19 points so -21 vs a poor San Diego State team is more than doable. Utah runs away with this one and they’ve already shown they’ll pile it on if needed scoring 73 last week. |
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09-17-22 | Georgia Southern v. UAB -11.5 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
#542 ASA play on 8* UAB -12 vs. Georgia Southern, 3:30 PM ET - This is a classic scheduling situational bet with Georgia Southern coming off a huge upset win over Nebraska as a 23-point dog, while UAB is coming off an upset loss as a favorite last week to Liberty. The Blazers loss last week was largely due to 4 turnovers or a net TO differential of minus -3. UAB relies on a strong running game which was 43rd in the nation a year ago at 183 rushing yards per game and has amassed 241RYPG in 2022. GA Southern will have a hard time holding up in the trenches considering they have allowed 257 rushing yards per game this season after giving up 162RYPG last season. UAB will wear down the Eagles defense which just allowed Nebraska to rush for 257-yards. Georgia Southern relies on their passing attack but UAB was solid in that defensive category a year ago allowing 228.1PYPG which was 67th in the nation. GA Southern had the 110th worst net differential a year ago at -12.6PPG, -18.8PPG when playing away. UAB was 3-2 SU at home last season with losses to Liberty and Rice. The Blazers three wins came against UTEP, LA Tech and FAU and were all by 14 or more points. We like a 2 TD win in this one. |
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09-17-22 | Buffalo +14 v. Coastal Carolina | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
#125 ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo +14 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - Buffalo is undervalued here with an 0-2 record on the season. We also feel CC is overvalued coming in at 2-0. The Bulls lost @ Maryland to open the season and then last week lost on a hail mary as time expired vs Holy Cross. While that may seem like a terrible loss, it really wasn’t as Holy Cross is one of the top FCS programs and Buffalo was only favored by 6.5 in that game. The Bulls had more yardage in the 37-31 loss but nearly 100 yards of penalties hurt them. Coastal also played an FCS team last week but one that isn’t nearly as strong as Holy Cross. They Chanticleers beat Gardner Webb (ranked 88th in FCS power ratings) 31-27 as a 33 point favorite. However, they were outgained in that game by a whopping 140 yards and if not for a 95 yard kickoff they would have lost the game. Coastal was much better a year ago compared to this season ranking 117th in returning production. Even with that, they struggled to beat this Buffalo team in 2021 squeaking out a 28-25 win with the yardage nearly even. CC QB McCall is back but he doesn’t have much experience around him. They are shorthanded on offense with their top returning RB Bennett out and starting WR Brown possibly out. It’s going to be very tough for Coastal to pull away and get enough margin in this game to cover. We’ll call this one a close game and take the points |
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09-17-22 | Oklahoma v. Nebraska +11 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
#124 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nebraska +11 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Don’t be surprised if Nebraska gives OU all they can handle here. First off, we think the coaching change and the firing of Scott Frost will rally this team that is actually pretty talented. They seem to really like interim head coach Mickey Joseph and he changed things up in practice this week with more physicality and an up tempo more game like situation. We had last year’s OU team power rated higher than this year’s current team and Nebraska gave the Sooners all they could handle on the road last year. The Huskers lost the game 23-16 but played Oklahoma basically dead even in YPP and had a shot at the upset. This year OU, and their entirely new coaching staff, has played 2 home games vs UTEP (112th) and Akron (127th) both power rated near the bottom college football as you can see. Last week they led Akron just 7-3 at half before overpowering a very bad Zips team and winning big in the 2nd half. Those 2 opponents have a combined 1-4 SU record on the season (UTEP beat a bad NM State team 20-13) and have been outscored 177-69. Needless to say, Oklahoma takes a big step up in competition this week and Lincoln is not an easy place to play. Win or lose, the fans come out each Saturday and this one will be a huge home game vs their former Big 12 rival. Nebraska hasn’t had a ton of success as of late but they rarely get blown out. Their last 13 losses have all come by single digits including vs both Ohio State and Michigan last year. Going back further, 21 of their last 26 losses have come by less than 10 points. The Nebraska offense is very potent averaging nearly 500 YPG on 6.8 YPP. We expect them to keep up here and give the OU defense big problems. Too many points here we like the home dog. |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville OVER 57 | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show | |
#105/106 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 57 Points – Florida State vs Louisville, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Louisville has been in 2 lower scoring games thus far, however the total yardage accumulated in those games tells us they points scored should have been much higher. In the Cardinals season opener vs Syracuse the 2 teams combined for almost 800 yards but scored just 38 total points. That means the 2 teams scored an average of 1 point for every 21 yards gained which is well below the college average of 1 point scored for every 14.7 yards. In their 2nd game vs UCF the total was set at 62 and the two combined to score just 34 points. However, as with their season opener, the yardage was quite high at 760 total yards which equates to 1 point for every 22 yards gained. The Louisville offense has crossed into opponents territory 11 times already this season and scored just 3 TD’s. We expect those numbers to ramp up considerably as this is a team that averaged 32 PPG last year and they have one of the top QB’s in the ACC Cunningham. We’ve been impressed with the FSU offense that has over 1,000 yards in 2 games. We expected them to put up big numbers vs Duquesne which they did but they also were impressive vs LSU with nearly 400 yards on 5.5 YPP. We expect LSU to be one of the better defenses in the country this year. The Noles had 24 points in their game vs the Tigers but it could have been much more as they missed a FG, fumbled at the LSU 1 yard line, and were shut out on downs at the LSU 8 yard line. These 2 ACC teams have met 8 times since 2014 and 6 of those meetings have totaled at least 59 points and all 8 have totaled at least 52 points. The last 3 meetings have all had totals set above 60 points so we’re getting some value here at 57. Perfect weather in Louisville for this game and Over is the call. |
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09-10-22 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -12.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
#370 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -12.5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 6 PM ET - ODU is coming off one of their biggest upsets in school history knocking off Virginia Tech last week 20-17 despite getting outgained by 100 yards in the game. VT under a new HC and new schemes on both sides of the ball imploded with 5 turnovers in the game, which led directly to 17 of ODU’s 20 points. The Monarch offense was not good averaging just 3.6 YPP and getting beat at the line of scrimmage putting up only 2.5 YPC. They scored a TD with 30 seconds left in the game to pick up the win and the only TD the scored prior to that was a fumble return. ECU comes in with the opposite scenario. They outplayed one of the top teams in the country, NC State, yet lost 21-20. The Pirates outgained the Wolfpack, who many picked to be the top team in the ACC this season, but missed a late FG and had a punt blocked and returned for a TD. The Pirates held up well in the trenches averaging 4.3 YPC vs one of the top defensive lines in the nation. The ECU defense held the NC State offense to just 14 points on 344 total yards. That’s a Wolfpack offense that averaged 31 PPG and 414 YPG last season and brought back most of their key players including QB Leary. Offensively, the Pirates have a huge edge at QB in this one with Ahlers starting for the 5th straight season! He has thrown for more than 10,000 career yards with 90 total TD’s. ODU QB Wolff took over midway through last season and was fairly average. Last week, in their fortunate win, he completed only 40% of his passes and was under constant pressure (weak OLine for ODU). The Monarch fans stormed the field last week and now ODU must travel after that huge win. ECU will be out for blood here and we’ll call for any easy win. |
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09-10-22 | Iowa State v. Iowa -3.5 | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 52 m | Show | |
#368 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa -3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This line is an overreaction to Iowa’s 7-3 home win over South Dakota State. We get it the Hawkeye offense wasn’t good and starting QB Petras was awful. Let’s remember that SDSU is one of the top few programs in all of FCS and is rated higher than almost half of the FBS teams in the current Sagarin ratings. So they are a very solid team. While Petras was bad, he has lots of experience after starting for a Hawkeye team that went 10-4 last year. He will be better this week. They did have their chances last week pushing inside the SDSU 40 yard line 6 times but coming away with only 1 FG. The Iowa defense was outstanding as expected. They held the Jackrabbits to just 120 total yards on 2 YPP and SDSU made their way inside Iowa’s 40 yard line only once the entire game. Iowa State lost a TON of experience from last year’s team. They rank 128th in returning production (offense + defense) out of 131 teams. They lost their multi year QB starter (Purdy), their all time leading rusher (Hall), and 8 starters on defense including their entire secondary. The Cyclones rolled last week over a bad SE Missouri State team so very little can be taken from that game. That fact is, Iowa returns far more experience from last season when they beat ISU by 10 on the road. They have now beaten ISU 6 straight times by an average margin of +13 PPG. The Hawkeye coaches and players have heard all week how terrible they are after last week’s tight win and will come more than ready for this one. Iowa wins this one by more than a FG. |
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09-10-22 | Appalachian State v. Texas A&M -18 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
#354 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas A&M -18 over Appalachian State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a huge letdown spot for App State. They nearly pulled of a huge home win last week vs UNC but lost 63-61. It actually would not have been an upset as App State was favored by 3 in the game so a loss and a non cover. The Mountaineers were actually down by 20 points in that game entering the 4th quarter and scored a ridiculous 40 points in the final 15 minutes vs a Tar Heel defense that is obviously terrible this year. Now they face an A&M defense that is loaded with NFL talent and will be one of the top stop units in the nation this season. Let’s also keep in mind that App State’s opponent last week, UNC, struggled in week 1 vs a Florida A&M team (only up 11 entering the 4th) that barely had enough players to make the trip and considered cancelling the game in Chapel Hill. We did find out that ASU’s defense is nothing to write home about. They obviously allowed 63 points and the Heels rolled up an average of 8 YPP and 6.1 YPC. A&M’s offense is very good. They will put up big numbers vs this defense that is a bit beat up after that excruciating loss. The difference this week is, ASU’s offense will struggle vs a defense that is light year’s better than the one they faced last week. The Aggies will have big advantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball and they are the much deeper team which will be big in a game played in 90+ degree heat. A&M played host to Sam Houston State and pitched a shut out. They will be the more prepared team here as we’re positive they were “semi” getting ready to take on App State prior to last week’s game vs a team they knew they were going to blow out while the Mountaineers spent their entire off-season getting ready for in-state big boy North Carolina. This one smells like a blowout. |
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09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -17 over New Mexico, Friday at 9 PM ET - Boise will come out with a chip on their shoulder here after getting blitzed @ Oregon State last weekend 34-17. The Broncos first half offensively was a disaster due to turnovers. They had the ball 9 times in the first half and turned the ball over on 4 of those possessions and missed a short FG on another. In all they had 5 turnovers in the game which killed any offensive momentum they could gather. After the break BSU was much better scoring 17 points and punting just once. That loss prevents them from overlooking this game @ New Mexico as the Broncos cannot afford to go 0-2 to start the season. The Lobos won big last week vs FCS Maine but not much can be taken from that game vs a vastly inferior opponent. They dominated the stats, as we to be expected, but also ran 26 more offensive snaps on their game vs the Black Bears. Now New Mexico takes a huge step up this weekend while Boise takes a fairly significant step down. Last year these 2 met in Boise and the Broncos 37-0 win as a 27-point chalk and New Mexico barely cracked 100 yards of total offense. Boise has dominated this series winning 5 straight with 4 of those wins coming by at least 28 points. New Mexico is fairly inexperienced and their new transfer QB Kendrick didn’t play much at Kansas the last few years and will be operating behind an OLine that has just 22 returning starts ranking them 130th out of 131 teams. This Lobo team average just 12 PPG last year and will have big problems vs this experienced and very solid Boise defense. After winning their first 2 home games last year vs low level competition (Houston Baptist & NMSU) the Lobos lost their final 4 games by margins of 29, 29, 25, and 14 points. The much better team has all kinds of motivation this weekend and they will roll. Take Boise State. |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 27 m | Show |
#235 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -23 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Ga Tech offense will do next to nothing in this game in our opinion. The Jackets put up only 8 points in their meeting last year and have averaged 11 PPG over the last 6 meetings. Clemson will have one of the top defensive teams in the nation and finished 3rd nationally last year allowing just 4.3 YPP. We believe there is a huge mismatch up front with Clemson’s defensive line vs Georgia Tech’s offensive front. The Tigers should have one of the top front 7 in the nation defensively while the Yellow Jackets OLine has only 37 career starts ranking them 116th in that category. GT is very inexperienced ranking 121st in returning production after winning just 3 games last year and getting outgained by 1.0 YPP on the season. While GT only put up 8 points in last year’s meeting, they covered because the Clemson offense took a huge step back and only scored 14 points in that game. Prior to last year the Tigers won the previous 3 meetings by 66, 38, and 28 points. We look for the Tiger offense to be much improved this season. QB Uiagalelei had on off season last year but he’s lost a bunch of weight and we’re hearing he's been very good in camp. He’ll be operating behind an top notch offensive line with 4 starters back with 6 of his top pass catchers back and his top RB Shipley. We look for a huge improvement on that side of the ball for the Tigers. GT head coach Collins is in desperation mode after a 9-25 SU recodrhis first 3 seasons and canned a number of assistants. Because of that the GT coaching staff has 8 new coaches which means a learning curve early in the season. After a disappointing season, the Tigers have a chip on their shoulders and they roll in this game. |
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09-03-22 | Florida Atlantic -4 v. Ohio | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
#191 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic -4 over Ohio U, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - FAU looked really good in their opening 43-13 win vs Charlotte last weekend. Their offense was extremely balanced with 264 yards passing and 212 yards rushing outgaining Charlotte by more than 200 total yards. The score could have been worse as FAU led 33-7 very early in the 2nd half and decided to sit a number of key players getting them rested for this match up. Owl QB Perry, former starter for the Miami Hurricanes, looked very sharp operating behind an offensive line that has a combined 125 career starts which ranks them as the 9th most experienced line in college football. The offense was without starting RB Ford, who has over 2000 career yards and averages 6.3 YPC, but he is expected back this week. This offense should continue their hot start vs an Ohio defense that finished outside the top 100 in total defense and rush defense. Can the Bobcat offense keep up? We don’t think so. They return QB Rourke but he didn’t do much through the air last year with Ohio ranking 105th nationally in passing YPG. So that means the Bobcats will have to be very successful running the ball to stay in this game but they are facing a very good FAU DLine that returns everyone and allowed just 2.7 YPC last week vs Charlotte. Owl head coach Willie Taggart has coached at a very high level as he was the head man at Oregon & Florida State. He has brought in some high level transfers as well including 5 players who used to play for him at FSU. Ohio was 3-9 last season and they are just 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home underdog and they are just 5-9 SU at home since 2020. Florida Atlantic is the much more talented team here and we think they could very well be a surprise team in 2022. We’ll lay the points. |
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09-03-22 | Texas State v. Nevada | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show | |
#201 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas State PK over Nevada, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - Nevada has a game under their belt but they looked terrible last week. Wasn’t surprising as they rank 131st (dead last) in offensive production returning and 130th in defensive production coming back. This team lost more experience and key players than any other in the country. While they beat New Mexico State, who is rated as one of the worst 5 teams in CFB, it wasn’t pretty. The final score was Nevada 23, NMSU 12 but the Wolfpack were outgained 303 to 257 and they were nearly outgained by 2.0 YPP (5.1 YPP for NMSU & 3.3 YPP for Nevada). New Mexico State turned the ball over 5 times in the game (0 for Nevada) yet still hung tight and were down by just 1 score with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Wolfpack new QB’s were unimpressive to say the least as Illingworth and Cox completed just 14 passes for 78 total yards and only 3.4 yards per attempt. Slow down their running game and the Nevada offense is in big trouble. Texas State was just 4-8 last season but they return a bunch on offense including 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen. They also get a big upgrade at QB with Arkansas State transfer Hatcher taking over. He was one of the top QB recruits nationally out of HS and committed to Alabama before transferring to Arkansas State where he threw for over 7,400 yards with 65 TD’s in his career. Nevada will look out of sorts the first part of this season as they have a new coaching staff at nearly every position (and head coach). We’ve lost some value here as the Bobcats were +3 in this game last week but still like Texas State to get the win as a pick'em. |
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09-02-22 | Illinois +2.5 v. Indiana | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 31 m | Show | |
#153 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +2.5 over Indiana, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Illini got off to a great start last week with an easy 38-6 win over Wyoming. We realize the Cowboys aren’t going to be very good this year as they lost a ton of production on both sides of the ball, that being said we were still impressed with Illinois. New starting QB DeVito, transfer from Syracuse, gives the Illini their best starting QB in the last 5+ years. He threw for just under 200 yards, 2 TD’s and completed 73% of his passes. A very nice complement to what looks like a very solid running attack that put up 260 yards last week. New OC Tunney will make Illinois a much better offensive team this year. The defense ranked 31st nationally last season on YPP allowed and held Wyoming to 212 total yards and 4.1 YPP. 11 of Wyoming’s 13 offensive possessions last Saturday were 5 plays or fewer. The Indiana offense will struggle in this one after losing most of their production from last season as they rank 106th in percentage of yards returning. They will be breaking in a new QB after losing Penix who is now the starter for Washington. Either Tuttle or Bazelak (Mizzou transfer) will get the call here as they try and improve an offense that was flat out bad last year scoring 15 points or less in all but one Big 10 game. We think they’ll struggle again this year, especially early in the season. IU was just 2-10 last season and didn’t win a single conference game. They are one of the most inexperienced teams in the league after losing nearly 50% of their letterman (129th nationally). They were an underdog in every Big 10 game but one last year and that was vs Rutgers. The Hoosiers lost that game 38-3. They are now favored here over an Illinois team we feel is better on both sides of the ball. This current spread says these 2 teams would be around even on a neutral field. No way. Illinois is better and we’ll take the points. |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue OVER 52.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 52.5 Penn State @ Purdue – Thursday Sept 1 8 PM ET - These two haven’t met since 2019 – Penn State has won 8 straight going back to 2006. 15-3-1 SU since 1951. FINISH TO LAST YEAR - Penn State finished last season with a Bowl loss to Arkansas (10-24). Purdue off a Bowl win over Tennessee 48-45. QUARTERBACK PLAY - Both teams have experience at the QB position with 6th year players. Aidan O’Connell for Purdue completed over 71% of his attempts last year (did throw 11 INT’s). He threw for over 370 yards 6 times last year including a pair of 500+ yard performances. Sean Clifford will be the Nittany Lions starter this season. Clifford has a chance to finish his PSU career as the #1 QB in passing yards, TD’, pass attempts and completions. Penn State also has RB Lee back and a talented WR corps but must replace the O-line. Penn State averaged 23.9PPG but should also score against the Boilermakers who also have misleading defensive numbers from a year ago. PURDUE DEFENSE MISLEADING STATS FROM LAST YEAR (Similar schedule to PSU) - Purdue allowed 29 or more points in the second half of the season to Michigan State, Ohio State and Tennessee. PURDUE OFFENSE IS GOING TO SCORE: Purdue was 22nd in total yards per game offensively (440.3YPG) and averaged 29.1PPG. PENN STATE DEFENSE OVER-RATED: The Lions must replace 7 of last year's top 11 tacklers from their defense that allowed just 17.3PPG (6th best) and their defensive coordinator. PSU’s defensive numbers are a bit misleading based on their schedule. The Lions faced 5 teams that ranked 107th or worse in total offense last season. KEY OFFENSIVE NUMBERS FOR BOTH: Both teams ranked top 31 in 3rd down conversions a year ago, so both have the ability to keep their offenses on the field. Purdue was 22nd in plays per game at 76.2, Penn State was 29th at 74.1. Purdue 21-14-2 OVER at home since 2016. Purdue 67% returning production – Penn State 65% |
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09-01-22 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh -7.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 54 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* #144 Pittsburgh -7.5 vs. West Virginia, Thursday 7 PM ET - We are backing the host in this “Backyard Brawl” between the Panthers and Mountaineers. An interesting dynamic for both teams will be quarterback play. The Panthers replace NFL’er Kenny Pickett with USC transfer Kedon Slovis. Slovis slides into a perfect offense that features its entire starting line and depth in the backfield. Slovis has 58 career TD’s and has completed 68.4% of his passes. West Virginia also gets a former USC quarterback this season in JT Daniels. Daniels now gets his opportunity after being injured and sitting behind Georgia QB Bennett last season. There are a few big advantages for Pitt in this game which will be the difference maker. The Panthers will have a very balanced offense (was 47th in efficiency a year ago) and can pound the ball with RB Abanikanda who rushed for 7 TD’s and 651 yards in just six games a year ago. West Virginia has 5 starters back on the O-line but they were last in the Big 12 in sacks allowed and tackles for a loss last season. Pitt is deep on defense with 8 returning starters and that unit led the ACC in rushing defense, was 2nd in the nation in sacks and 5th in tackles for a loss. The Panthers were 18th in defensive efficiency and gave up 24PPG. The Neers have just 3 starters back on that side of the football from a unit that was 32nd in DEFF. We expect a regression for the Mountaineers defense that gave up nearly 26PPG and 5.6 yards per play (76th). Last year at home the Panthers won by +16.4PPG and are 8-3 ATS their last eleven at home. West Virginia is 1-6 ATS their last seven as a road dog and they’ve lost those games by an average of -12.4PPG. We like Pittsburgh to get a double-digit win in this one. |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 50.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
#299/300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska @ Dublin, Ireland, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET - We expect the defenses to control this opener in Ireland. Nebraska made a change at offensive coordinator with Mark Whipple coming in from Pitt. They also have a new QB in Texas transfer Casey Thompson. While we expect the offense to look solid as the year progresses, early in the season will be an adjustment learning the new system. Whipple had 1st round pick Kenny Pickett as his QB at Pitt which helped open things up as he watched the offense improve by nearly 100 YPG last season compared to their 2020 numbers. Prior to Pickett taking off, the Pitt offense averaged just 331 YPG their previous 3 seasons combined. Our word is Whipple wants to run the ball quite a bit if possible and his mantra has been “don’t lose the game with mistakes” especially early in the season. That tells us he will be fairly conservative. We expect NW’s offense to struggle as they averaged just 16 PPG last year which ranked them 125th nationally. They were held to 14 points or less in 7 of their 9 Big 10 games. Their QB Hilinski started 5 games last year but wasn’t great completing just 54% of his passes with 3 TD’s and 4 interceptions on the season. Nebraska’s defense held NW to 7 points last year and was solid ranking 36th nationally holding their opponents to 5.2 YPP. We expect them to be better this year. The NW defense was bad last year. They allowed 6.3 YPP after giving up just 4.8 YPP the year prior. In fact, 3 of the 4 years prior to last season, the Wildcat defense ranked in the top 25 nationally in YPP allowed. Head coach Fitzgerald is a great defensive coach and we expect a big jump from that unit this year. NW will attempt to make this a slow paced, grind it out game. That’s what we anticipate with points hard to come by. Play the Under. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -2.5 over Alabama, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like UGA to win this rematch after getting embarrassed a month ago in the SEC Championship game. We’re getting value with the Dawgs in this one favored by 2.5 after being favored by 6.5 in the first meeting. The line has moved a full 4 points based on just one data point which was the first meeting. Georgia was the best team in the country all season long and we don’t think one hiccup changes that. Prior to the meeting in the SEC Championship Georgia was the much more dominant team. Their defense didn’t allow more than 17 points in any game and they won every game but one by at least 3 scores. Bama lost to a A&M team that finished with 4 losses and had 4 other games decided by one score. For the season, prior meeting included, UGA has dominated opponents with a +3.0 YPP differential while Alabama is +2.1 in that category. The Dawgs are also the healthier team entering this game as Bama will be without top WR Metchie (who had 97 yards receiving & a TD in first match up), their top CB Jobe is out, and a few starting offensive linemen may not play. The Georgia defense, the best in the country, will be salty to prove a point here after allowing a ridiculous 536 yards in the first meeting (UGA had 450 yards). Two interceptions by Georgia QB Bennett, one returned for a TD, didn’t help matters. There is a misnomer that floats around this time of year that Alabama HC Saban is simply unbeatable when he gets to this game. Not true. The Tide has been to the CFB Championship game 5 times, they are 3-2 SU in those games and 1-4 ATS. We’ve had UGA power rated all season long as the best team and we’ll stick with that. The revenge situation makes this even better. Take Georgia. |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
#285/286 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 47.5 Points – Kansas State vs LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both teams in this game. KSU’s defense ranks 64 spots higher than their offense (37th to 101st) and LSU’s defense ranks 34 spots higher than their offense (63rd to 87th). Both defenses were playing very well down the stretch with KSU holding each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less and LSU held their last 4 opponents to an average of 17 PPG – which included Bama, Arkansas, and A&M. The Tigers have had a number of opt outs and transfers on both sides of the ball. They are still very talented and fast on defense but the biggest impact will be at QB. They are left with 2 walk on QB’s who’ve never played in a game so their offense can be expected to struggle big time vs a solid KSU defense. They are also a poor running team ranking 117th nationally and lost their top RB after the season so these QB’s will have to play way above their head for LSU to put significant points on the board. While the Cats do have their full complement of offensive players for this one, they were far from explosive ranking outside the top 100 in total offense. They are also the 3rd slowest paced team in all of the bowl games so that should eat clock as well. We think the LSU defense will be fine here and will keep the Wildcat offense in check. The LSU offense with no scholarship QB will have problems. Under is the play. |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State +100 v. Notre Dame | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
#277 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State Money Line +100 over Notre Dame, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have OSU as the favorite here so we feel the value is on the Cowboys. The Okie State defense ranks 3rd nationally behind only Georgia and Wisconsin. They are equally proficient at stopping the run (5th nationally) and the pass (10th). Facing a fairly pedestrian Notre Dame offense ranked 43rd in YPP and 56th in total offense. The Irish closed out the regular season facing 3 defenses ranked 114th or lower and faced just 2 top 25 defenses this season. In those games they averaged just 3.5 YPP (vs Wisconsin) and 4.6 YPP (vs Cincinnati). The ND QB Coan is not a someone that can carry a team on his shoulders without a decent running game. They averaged 151 YPG rushing this year but that won’t happen in this game facing an OSU defense that allows 2.7 YPC. On top of that the Irish are without their top RB Williams who has over 1,000 yards rushing and nearly 400 yards receiving. They will struggle offensively in this game. The Cowboy offense, on the other hand, gets a key component back on their offense with RB Warren returning (1,200 yards rushing and 11 TD’s). He missed the Big 12 Championship game which was a 21-16 loss vs Baylor. The Cowboys outplayed the Bears in that game outgaining them by almost 100 yards, but 4 turnovers killed. That included 2 interceptions that led to quick TD drives of 11 yards and 37 yards by the Bears. OSU has played the tougher schedule (9th SOS to 47th for ND) and they still have the better numbers (+130 YPG and +1.1 YPP differential compared to Notre Dame +77 YPG and +0.9 YPP). OSU coach Gundy is experienced in coach bowl games and has done well with a 10-5 ATS record while new ND HC Freeman has never led his team in a bowl game. OSU is the better team with the better defense and getting points. We’ll take that. |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas v. Penn State OVER 48 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
#275/276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points - Penn State vs Arkansas, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Penn State had a solid defense this year (34th in total defense) but they won’t be even close to full strength here. That’s because they had 5 starters opt out on that side of the ball. Some of their top defensive players that combined to account for over 300 total tackles, 36.5 for loss and 12.5 sacks defensively. On top of that PSU lost their defensive coordinator who is now the head coach at Virginia Tech. We expect Arkansas to have very good success offensively here. The Razors averaged 31 PPG on the season and scored at least 30 in 4 of their last 5 including putting up 35 points on Alabama. Their PPG season number was skewed as well after putting up 0 points vs Georgia, the best defense in the country, take that game out and they averaged 35 PPG. Defensively the Razorbacks were shaky this year. They finished 69th nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed and PSU finished 22nd in passing offense. Arkansas had some solid defensive performances in the non-conference slate but once they hit SEC play they allowed 30 PPG. Both teams like to play fairly fast with PSU 12th in pace of play for bowl teams and Arkansas is 25th. With Razors favored by 2 the projected score here is 25-23. Our projections have both teams topping those numbers. Take the OVER here. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
#269 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -7.5 over Michigan, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This line is off. We have UGA as a 10 point favorite here. Way too much overreaction to the last few games of the season has pushed this number too low. For comparison’s sake, OSU was favored by 6.5 or 7 AT Michigan to close out the regular season. Now basically the same number vs UGA, who was the best team in the country for the entire season, on a neutral site? Georgia was favored by 6 vs Alabama in the SEC Championship and now just 1.5 points more vs Michigan? The Wolverines beat OSU at home to close out the season and then crushed a not so good Iowa team in the Big 10 Championship. You then had UGA get steamrolled by Bama in the SEC Championship to set up this lower number. We’ll take advantage of it. The Bulldogs defense has been lights and the best in the nation all season long. After giving up 41 points to the Crimson Tide to close out the season (although one TD was a Bama pick 6), you can bet this defense is completely jacked to make amends here. Michigan doesn’t have the offense to exploit this defense as Bama did. The Tide of the best QB in college football and a number of NFL ready WR’s. They threw the ball 44 times in that game. Michigan can’t do that. They are built on the running game and their QB McNamara is solid but nowhere near the same caliber as Bama’s Young. Problem is the Bulldogs allow just 83 YPG rushing on 2.7 YPC. On offense we expect UGA QB Bennett to bounce back with a solid effort here. He threw for 340 yards vs Alabama but threw 2 interceptions including a pick 6. Prior to that Bennett had thrown 5 interceptions all season (11 games). These 2 played almost identical SOS’s and Georgia had the far superior stats. The Dawgs were +188 YPG, +3.0 YPP and +30 PPG while Michigan was +135 YPG, +1.8 YPP, and +21 PPG. After their season opener vs Clemson, the Bulldogs were favored by at least 14 points in every game until they met Bama in the SEC Championship. Michigan was an underdog twice this year and favored by less than 10 four other times. Believe it or not, 11 of the 14 College FB Final 4 games have been decided by 10 or more points. Another one here as Georgia gets the cover. |
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12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
#294 ASA PLAY ON 8* Wake Forest -16 over Rutgers, Friday at 11 AM ET - This is a terrible spot for Rutgers who had turned in their gear and called it a season a month ago. Once Texas A&M opted out of this game, the Gator Bowl was looking for anyone to oppose Wake here. The Scarlet Knight players were all on Xmas break at home when they were told to come back to campus so they could practice to get ready for this game. They haven’t been on the field together since November 27th, a 40-16 blowout loss to Maryland, and now they’ve had less than a week to get ready for this game. Not ideal to say the least. This Rutgers offense won’t be able to keep up in this game. Wake Forest is 12th nationally in total offense and 5th in scoring at 41 PPG. Rutgers is 118th in total offense, 113th in scoring, and they were held to 17 points or less in 8 of their 12 games this season. In Big 10 games alone they averaged just 13.6 PPG. Their defense faced only 1 team that is somewhat comparable to Wake offensively and that was Ohio State. In that game Rutgers gave up 52 points by that was misleading. OSU had 45 at halftime and 52 with 10 minutes to go in the THIRD QUARTER before they called off the dogs. We’re not insinuating that Wake as a team is as good as Ohio State, but offensively they are close. The Deacs will score 40+ in this game and we see no way Rutgers can score enough to keep this within 2 TD’s. Lay it. |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
#258 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6 over Purdue, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET - Purdue has had some really important players opt out for this game. Their top offensive player and top defensive player will not be playing on Thursday. WR Bell (Big 10 receiver of the year), who had over 1,200 yards receiving, is getting ready for the NFL. The Boilers just announced on Monday that WR Milton will also not be playing in the game and he is 2nd on the team in both receptions and yards. That’s over 2,000 receiving yards and 13 TD’s out of the line up for Purdue. Starting OT Long will also be out due to injury. Defensively this team will be missing DE Karlaftis (one of the top pass rushers in the Big 10 – All Big 10) and top CB Mackey. Offensively losing key weapons at wideout will really put this offense in a bind more so than many teams because they cannot run the bal. Purdue averages just 84 YPG rushing and 2.9 YPC which ranks them below 124th in both (out of 130 teams). They need their passing attack to be humming to be effective. While Purdue had their very best players opting out, Tennessee has had many of their top players commit to coming back next year. That gives this bowl a whole different vibe for the Vols heading into next year. Starting QB Hooker is coming back (2,600 yards passing, 560 yards rushing, 26-3 TD to int ration), top WR Tillman, who would have been drafted, is coming back, along with a few starting offensive lineman who had other options. Those team leaders have stated they wanted to come back to try and win an SEC championship next year but it starts with this bowl game. The Vols are treating this game seriously and will have plenty of crowd support with the game in Nashville. Tennessee’s losses this year came at the hands of Pitt (ACC Champ – UT outgained them in the game), Alabama (SEC Champ), Georgia (#1 team for most of the season), Ole Miss, and Florida (early in the season when the Gators were playing very well). They are MUCH more balanced on offense rushing for 212 YPG and passing for 248 YPG. The Vols scored at least 34 points in 8 of their 12 games including topping 40 points 6 times. These 2 played similar SOS’s but Tennessee has the much better numbers with a +1.2 YPP differential (Purdue +0.3) and +11 PPG differential (Purdue +7). We’re getting what we think is the better team, in a semi-home game, in the much better personnel situation. Tennessee wins this one by at least a TD. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma OVER 60 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
#253/254 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60 Points – Oregon vs Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9:15 PM ET - Both defenses are playing this game missing a number of key players. Oregon has over 30 guys out due to injuries, opt outs, etc… including 14 in the defensive 2 deep. That includes DE Thibodeaux who is one of the top pass rushers in the nation. The Ducks are actually moving OL to the DL so they have some depth for this game. Oklahoma will be without 3 starting defensive lineman and 4 of their front 7 are not playing in this game. Both offenses have a few guys out but nothing compared to the defenses. Both offense are capable of putting up big numbers as Oklahoma averaged 38 PPG and Oregon averaged 31 PPG this season. Since Williams took over at QB for the Sooners (final 7 games of the season), they have topped 50 points 3 times and been held below 28 just once. They closed out the season scoring 28 vs ISU and 33 vs Oklahoma State, two of the top 8 defenses in the nation. The only Pac 12 team that really slowed down the Ducks offense was Utah. Throw out those 2 games vs the Utes and Oregon put up at least 30 points in 8 of their other 11 games. Now with each offense close to full strength and facing depleted defenses, we anticipate both teams getting into the 30’s in this one. |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Clemson | 13-20 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
#251 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa State +2.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 5:45 PM ET - How can Clemson possibly be up for the Cheez It bowl after making the CFB playoffs in each of the last 6 seasons? They had much higher aspirations and simply didn’t get close to where they thought they’d be post-season. They also lost both coordinators so not an ideal situation for the Tigers. ISU is in a similar situation as they expected to have a great shot to win the Big 12 title yet underachieved. However, from what we are hearing ISU is very happy to have a chance to prove themselves, so to speak, facing a team that is used to playing for National Championships. Clemson’s offense fell off the map this year ranking 98th nationally after finishing 8th last year. They are averaging a fully 160 YPG less than they did a year ago. They are also averaging just 26 PPG after putting up 43 PPG last season. These teams are almost dead even defensively (both allow 310 YPG – 9th and 10th nationally) but ISU is much better on offense. They average a full 75 YPG and 1.3 YPP more than the Tigers. We realize the loss of RB Hall, who has opted out for the NFL, is a blow but with their solid OLine the rushing attack will still be affective. We’re also getting a big edge at QB with ISU’s Purdy completing 73% of his passes this year for 3,000 yards and 18 TD’s compared to Clemson’s Uiagalelei who completed only 54% of his passes for 3,000 yards and only 9 TD’s. The Cyclones played the tougher schedule (22 SOS to 51 SOS) and have the much better key numbers. ISU is +127 YPG, +1.4 YPP, and +12 PPG compared to Clemson’s +54 YPG, +0.8 YPP, and +12 PPG. We like the better team as a dog here. |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota -4.5 | Top | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
#246 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -4.5 over West Virginia, Tuesday at 10:15 PM ET - The Gophers defense doesn’t get talked about much but they are absolutely one of the best in the nation. They rank 4th nationally in total defense and they only 2 Big 10 games in which they allowed more than 300 yards was vs OSU & Nebraska. In their other 7 conference games the Minnesota defense allowed an average of just 236 YPG. They outgained 7 straight opponents to end the season and in their 4 losses on the season they outgained their opponent in 3 of those games. We like the Gophers to control the trenches here with one of the most experienced offensive lines and a team that averaged 195 YPG on the ground. WVU played well early in the season but finished just 4-5 in the Big 12 and struggled to beat a bad Kansas team by 6 to close out the season. These teams played similar SOS’s and Minnesota had the better overall numbers including +0.5 YPP differential and a +8 PPG point differential (WVU was +0.0 YPP differential and +2 PPG differential). Minnesota also has a HUGE hidden advantage in this game. HC PJ Fleck hired Ciarrocca as his new offensive coordinator at the end of the regular season. He was the Minnesota OC a few years ago and was quite successful before taking the OC job at Penn State. After 1 year at PSU (last year – Covid year) Ciarrocca was fired by PSU head coach Franklin which was absolutely crazy considering the circumstances. He then joined the West Virginia staff as a special offensive assistant THIS SEASON and was with the Mountaineers throughout the regular season. He should have a pretty good idea of how to defend this WVU offense which gives an already very good Gopher defense an edge. We like Minnesota to win this game by at least a TD. |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
#240 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force +1.5 over Louisville, Tuesday at 3:15 PM ET - First off we know many of the no-name type bowls are decided by who wants to be there and who doesn’t. We know one thing for sure in this game and that is Air Force is jacked to be playing a Power 5 team so they can prove their worth. The Falcons very rarely get to face a Power 5 opponent facing just 2 since the start of the 2018 season. AF won both of those games vs Colorado & Washington State. The Falcons are great at running the ball ranking 1st nationally and Louisville isn’t a great run defense allowing 157 YPG o the ground. In their season finale vs rival Kentucky the Cards gave up 362 yards rushing in that loss. We expect Louisville to struggle to contain the option offense as it’s something they almost never have to do. Even with time to prepare if you’re not used to it in full game speed it can be very tough. AF is very good on the other side of the ball as well. Not much is made of their defense but they rank 5th nationally allowing just 288 total YPG. Louisville has some opt outs for this game including 2 of their top 4 WR’s. The Falcons have covered 9 of their last 12 bowl games and we know they will bring their bests for this one. Air Force gets the upset. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Michigan -7 over Nevada, Monday at 11 AM ET - Nevada has lost almost 20 players to opt out and transfer. Their offense will be without starting QB Strong who is one of the top signal callers in the country. That means the Wolfpack will be starting a freshman who attempted 20 passes this season. That’s not the only missing player as the offense is completely decimated, playing without all 3 starting WR’s, starting TE, and 2 starting OL. So with an inexperienced QB and a number of skill players out, Nevada would probably like to run the ball. The problem is they only averaged 73 YPG rushing this season. So it’s not something they do well. Not only are they missing players, head coach Jay Norvell moved on to Colorado State after the regular season. 6 of 10 assistants are gone as well including OC, DC and special teams coordinator. The MAC has struggled this bowl season but this seems like to spot to jump on Western Michigan. We had them rated as the top team in the league this season even though they didn’t win the conference title. They and the #1 YPG differential in MAC play at +140 (conference games only). The Broncos beat the 2 teams that met in the MAC championship and did so handily beating NIU by 21 and Kent by 33. They had a few slips ups on the way mainly because of turnovers as they actually outgained their opponent in every MAC game they played. This game is in Detroit so nearly a home game for the Broncos. Too many distractions and key personnel losses for Nevada and WMU seems motivated for this one. Lay it. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
#232 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia St -5.5 over Ball St, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - The MAC continues their terrible bowl run with an 0-4 SU record this year as of this writing (prior to Miami Oh vs North Texas on Thursday) which means this conference is now 7-20 SU their last 27 bowl games. MAC underdogs have been brutal as well with a 20-38-2 ATS record over their last 60. This is a bad match up for Ball State as they struggle to stop the run (93rd nationally) and they are facing a GSU team that ranks 8th nationally averaging 225 YPG rushing. Ball State’s offense has struggled all season as well ranking 109th in total offense so while we don’t see them slowing down Georgia State’s running game, the Cards don’t have the offense to keep up. BSU finished the season losing 3 of their last 5 games with their only wins during that stretch coming vs Buffalo (4-8 record) and Akron (2-10 record) and the Cardinals were outgained in each of those wins. Georgia State closed out the season winning 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ UL Lafayette by 4 points. Not a bad loss at all as ULL won the Sun Belt title and beat a solid Marshall team in their bowl by 15 points. This team also nearly beat Auburn on the road in a game they led by 5 with under 1:00 minute remaining. We expect Ga State to run all over Ball State and get the cover. |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +2.5 over Miami Oh, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET - The MAC conference continues it’s terrible showing in bowl games. They are now 0-4 SU this season and 7-20 SU since 2016. The 2 teams in the MAC that won their respective divisions have already lost this bowl season (NIU & Kent). Miami Oh finished with a 6-6 overall record and beat only 1 team that ended the regular season with a winning record. 3 of their final 4 wins came vs the worst teams in the MAC (Akron, BG, and Buffalo) who had a combined 10-26 record this season. We love the way UNT was playing at the end of the season winning and covering 6 straight. That included a 22 point win over CUSA champs UTSA and a win over UTEP who nearly upset Fresno State in their bowl game. The Mean Green also had a few “impressive” losses @ Liberty, outgaining the Flames by over 100 yards in the loss, and @ Missouri, outgaining the Tigers on their home field. UNT is a great running team ranking 4th nationally averaging 237 YPG on the ground. We love siding with top 10 running teams that can control the line of scrimmage and their bowl history has been great with a 50-28 ATS record the last decade. Miami allowed 151 YPG rushing which ranks them 64th nationally, however they faced 2 top 10 rushing attacks this year (Kent & Army) lost both games and gave up almost 700 combined yards rushing in the process. This will be somewhat of a homefield for North Texas as they are playing just 20 miles from their campus. We think the wrong team is favored here and we like UNT to win this game outright. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
#226 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army -6.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened -3 in favor of Army and is up to -6.5 for good reason. As long as it stays under a TD we like the Cadets in this one. First of all Missouri has some key offensive moves on Tuesday which moved this number. First their top RB Badie, who led the SEC in rushing yards, will not play in this game. That’s huge blow to the offense as he racked up over 1600 rushing yards and 2nd most ground yards for the Tigers this year was Michael Cox who had only 150 yards. Secondly, their starting QB this year Bazelak will not start in this game. He was apparently beaten out in bowl practices by freshman Brady Cook who will start under center. Bazelak threw for over 2500 yards and 16 TD’s this year. Cook threw for 107 yards and 1 TD. Mizzou coaches might be auditioning Cook for a shot at the starting spot next year but that won’t help the offense here. We know Army runs the ball. They rank #2 in YPG rushing (275) and #2 in rush attempts per game. That’s a huge problem for the Tigers as they ended the regular season as one of the worst rush defenses in college football allowing 224 YPG (120th). On top of that, they haven’t faced anything close to an option offense and while they have had time to try and figure it out, their DC Wilks spent the last 14 seasons in the NFL so he hasn’t faced it period. Army is off a disappointing loss to Navy which will help fuel them for this game. We know the Cadets always bring their best in bowl games winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming last year by 3 points vs West Virginia. We like Army to win this one by at least a TD. |
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12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State OVER 59 | Top | 52-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
#221/222 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59 Points – Kent State vs Wyoming, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Kent has one of the top offenses in the country (8th in total offense) and one of the worst defenses in the country (122nd in total defense). They also play at an extremely fast pace ranking behind only Western KY and Ole Miss when it comes to other bowl teams. Throw out their game vs FCS VMI and this defense has allowed at least 30 points in 9 of their 11 games while the offense has scored at least 30 in 7 of their last 8 games. The Wyoming offense struggled at times this year but that should all change today facing the worst defense they’ve seen this year. Mid season with Chambers at QB, the Cowboys went on a 3 game stretch scoring just 14, 0, and 3 points facing all defenses much better than Kent including 2 in the top 30. That stretch really affected their overall offensive numbers. Wyoming made the switch at QB to Williams and he averaged 25 PPG in his 5 starts. They had great offensive success in their 2 games in the non-conference vs MAC teams the Cowboys scored 50 vs Northern Illinois and 45 vs Ball State. Both teams run the ball very well (Kent 4th nationally / Wyoming 27th) and that is a weakness of both defenses (Kent 106th nationally / Wyoming 95th). Both teams will run at will here opening up the passing game for big plays. This game is in Boise and the weather looks great with temps in the mid 30’s and little wind. Both are cold weather teams so temps in the mid 30’s won’t affect either side. Our projections have both teams topping 30 points which puts this one OVER the total. |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
#220 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion +9.5 over Tulsa, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - We can look at ODU’s year almost as 2 separate seasons. They started the year losing 6 of their first 7 and ended winning 5 straight. The positive run came with the Monarchs switched starting QB’s with Wolff taking over for their game vs Western Kentucky. He led them to a 5-1 record with their only loss coming vs Western Kentucky which wasn’t a surprise with WKU’s powerful offense (they beat App St in bowl game). In those 6 games Wolff threw for over 1700 yards with 10 TD’s. Prior to that they had thrown for only 850 yards and 5 TD’s in 6 games. They also inserted RB Olson right around that time and he ran for over 100 yards in 6 of his 7 starts. Throwing out their game vs FCS Hampton, the Monarchs averaged 19 PPG over their first 5 and when they made the switch at QB & RB they averaged 33 PPG including a win @ Middle Tenn St who just beat Toledo in their bowl game as 10 point dogs. In fact, Conference USA teams have shown the league may have been underrated as they’ve been underdogs in all 5 of their bowl games thus far, winning 3 of those games outright with a 4-1 ATS mark. Tulsa was 6-6 as well on the season but 5 of their 6 wins came by 8 points or less. The only double digit win they had this season was vs Temple, one of the worst teams in the nation. They were outscored on the year (26-27 average score) and their QB Brin had a tendency to give it away throwing 16 picks on the season – the most in the nation. Tulsa also comes into this game without 3 of their assistant coaches who’ve moved on including their DC. We like the way ODU is playing with confidence the 2nd half of the season and we like their shot to win this game outright. We’ll take the points as a nice cushion. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
#215 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -7 over Utah State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - USU could be a bit overvalued here after destroying San Diego State in the MWC Championship game a few weeks ago. SDSU was not at full strength for the game with a number of players out with Covid which not only affected the game, but their practice situation leading up to the game. USU played the much weaker schedule especially down the stretch where they faced just 1 bowl team in their final 7 regular season games and that was Wyoming, a game USU lost 44-17. The Aggies defense does not match up well with Oregon State’s offense. They ranked 82nd nationally stopping the run (allowed 163 YPG) yet faced only 3 teams ranked in the top 40 in rushing and 6 teams ranked below 95th in rushing. In their games vs top 40 rushing teams they allowed 437 yards on the ground (Air Force), 363 (Wyoming), and 221 (BYU). Oregon State averages 219 YPG rushing which is 13th nationally and will control the trenches here. The overall numbers favor OSU as well despite playing the much tougher schedule. The Beavers finished with a YPP differential of +0.7 and USU was +0.2 for the year. Motivation is always something that needs to be addressed in early bowl games and both will bring their best here. Many times a team from a Power 5 conference may not be thrilled to be playing a team from a lesser conference but that won’t be the case here as Oregon State has not been to a bowl game since 2014 so they are thrilled to be here. If both teams bring it, OSU is the better team and should win by more than a TD. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
#203 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina -10.5 over Northern Illinois, Friday at 6 PM ET - Based on this year’s stats and our film study, Coastal is the much better team in this match up. We also think there is some line value with Coastal. They were just favored at South Alabama by 14.5 to end the season and now laying just 10.5 on a neutral vs Northern Illinois team we have power rated almost dead even with South Alabama. CC had just 2 losses this year by a combined 5 points. They were +165 YPG and +2.3 YPP on the season with a average winning margin of +20 points per game. NIU won the MAC but they’ve been fairly shaky all season. If you throw out their game vs FCS Maine, the Huskies were outgained by 82 YPG on the season and had a YPP differential of -0.7. Despite winning the MAC they were outscored on the season as well. Their numbers equated to a .500 or below team. CC is far superior defensively allowing 122 fewer YPG than NIU. Offensively they are a bit closer however on a YPP basis the Chanticleers average a full 1.6 YPP more than the Huskies. Coastal seems to be motivated for this game after losing in this bowl last year in OT vs Liberty. QB McCall, who leads the nation in passing efficiency and yards per pass attempt (12.2), has stated they really want this game for the seniors and they are completely focused on winning this bowl game. If both teams play their “A” game, this is a blowout. The only chance NIU has is if Coastal is flat and uninterested or they turn the ball over a bunch. Lay the points. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
#103 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +7.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - Army is already locked into a winning season, a bowl game, and they will retain the Commander In Chief trophy no matter the outcome of this game. This is Navy’s bowl game. Army has a solid 8-3 record but they’ve been a terrible investment as a favorite going 1-4 ATS in that role this season and 58-84 ATS in that role dating all the way back to 1980. Navy is just 3-8 SU (7-4 ATS) entering this game but they’ve played much better over the last 5 or 6 weeks. During that stretch they beat a bowl bound Tulsa team, lost to a bowl bound East Carolina team by 3 and early upset Cincinnati losing by a TD but outgained the Bearcats by 37 yards. Army was outgained by 4 of their last 5 FBS opponents putting up more yardage than only UMass who finished the season with a 1-9 record. Both teams obviously love to run the ball but both defenses know how to defend this offense. It’s not a novelty to these teams which is why these games are almost always low scoring (total set at 34). A low scoring game gives extra value to the dog especially one getting more than a TD. Seven of the last ten meetings between these two rivals have been decided by a TD or less. Navy brings everything they have in their final game of the season and keeps it close. Take the points. |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
#320 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Wake Forest, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two great offenses face off here with both Pitt & Wake averaging 43 PPG on the season. When we move to the other side of the ball, Pitt has a big advantage. Pitt ranks 49th nationally in total defense while Wake ranks 101st. Even more importantly, the Panthers rank 38th in YPP allowed (5.1) and the Deacs rank 94th in that key stat (5.9). Pittsburgh’s YPP differential this year is +1.3 which ranks them #1 in the ACC tied with NC State. WF has a YPP differential of just +0.3 which puts them behind Pitt, NC State, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, Miami, FSU, and Syracuse in the ACC alone. Wake has 2 losses on the season getting dominated in the trenches by Clemson (lost by 21 points) and losing at home to UNC. Pittsburgh beat both of those teams by 10 and 7 points respectively outgaining those 2 foes by more than 200 yards combined. Speaking of common opponents, these 2 teams have had 5 this year (Clemson, UNC, Syracuse, Duke and UVA). Pitt was 5-0 SU in those games with an average winning margin of +14 and an average YPG margin of +110. WF was 3-2 in those games with an average winning margin of +7 and an average YPG margin of +34. It was pretty clear to us watching these teams all season + the obvious key stats that Pitt was the better team this season. The Panthers have a significant advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their defense allows only 2.8 YPC while Wake gives up over 5 YPC. Pitt is also outstanding at putting pressure on the QB (1st nationally in sacks per game and top 10 in sack percentage) which is key to beating WF. In their worst overall performance this year vs Clemson the Deacs allowed 7 sacks and were outgained by 137 yards. We see similarities to this match up with the exception that Pitt has a MUCH better offense than Clemson. We like Pittsburgh to win this game by more than a FG. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 52.5 Points – Appalachian State vs UL Lafayette, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In this match up we have the 2 best defenses in the Sun Belt (#1 & #2 in total defense and scoring defense) squaring off. These two met earlier this year and ULL won the game 41-13 which was by far the worst performance by the App State defense this year. They will be motivated for this one. In that game the teams combined for only 665 total yards and ULL had 4 explosive plays that totaled 139 of those yards. ULL also scored 4 TD’s on drives of 39 yards or less after Mountaineer turnovers. There were 73 rushing attempts and just 51 pass attempts in that game. Rushing the ball eats clock as we know and we expect much more of the same in this game. ASU averages 41 carries per game and ULL averages 40 per game. Since that loss App St has played 6 games and allowed just 14 PPG and 242 YPG. If you subtract their season opener vs Texas in which the ULL defense allowed 38 points, the Cajun defense has allowed an average of just 16.7 PPG and nobody has topped 27 points on this team. Both teams are slower paced ranking 70th or lower nationally so we don’t foresee a lot of offensive possessions. With ASU favored by 3 the projected final here is around 28-25. We don’t project either team getting to those numbers and we like the UNDER. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA OVER 72.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
#303/304 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 72.5 Points – Western Kentucky vs UTSA, Friday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met already once this season and it was an absolute shootout. UTSA came out on top 52-46 so almost 100 points scored in that one. It wasn’t a fluke as there wasn’t a single non-offensive TD in that game. All points were earned by the offenses. The 2 teams combined for more than 1,200 yards in the game! As crazy as it sounds, it could have been higher scoring that it was. Believe it or not there were FIVE punts in the game, a missed FG, one shut out on downs in opposing territory and 2 interceptions thrown inside the opponents 25 yards line which would most likely have led to scores. There were 166 offensive snaps in the game (a lot!) and we expect nothing different as these are 2 of the faster paced teams in college FB (WKU in top 10 and UTSA in top 30). The Hilltoppers have scored 40+ points in 7 of their last 8 games including rolling up 52 last Saturday on a Marshall defense that came into the game ranked 23rd nationally allowing just 21 PPG. UTSA’s offense has scored at least 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season and they are averaging 37 PPG on the year. This game is being played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio so the playing conditions will be perfect for both offenses. With WKU favored by 3 the projected final score is 38-35. Our numbers have both teams eclipsing those numbers as this one goes OVER the total. |
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11-27-21 | UTSA v. North Texas +10.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +10.5 over Texas San Antonio, 2pm ET - This is going to be a tough spot for UTSA as they are off a HUGE win over UAB, the perennial power in the Conference last week, and have a date in the Conference Championship next week. The Roadrunners dramatic win last week came with a TD pass with just .03 seconds on the clock. UTSA was outgained by 100-yards by UAB in that game and gave up over 220-rushing yards. Next week UTSA will play the winner of the Marshall/Western Kentucky game for the CUSA title which makes this game much less important. North Texas can qualify for a Bowl game with a win here and have a key factor on their side in this matchup. We mentioned UTSA allowed over 220-rushing yards to UAB, well North Texas has the 4th best rush offense in the nation at 237.5RYPG. The Eagles are playing well right now having won 4 straight games and covering 7 of their last eight. The undefeated Roadrunners are a road favorite for just the 3rd time since 2018, are overvalued, and laying double digits on the road. Easy buy with the home team North Texas. |
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11-27-21 | Army v. Liberty UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
#147/148 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 53.5 Points – Army vs Liberty, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We won’t see many offensive opportunities in this game as Army is slowest paced team in the nation and Liberty ranks 92nd in pace. On top of that we’ll see A LOT of running the ball which eats clock and shortens the game. Army is 2nd nationally averaging 60 rushing attempts per game and Liberty is averaging 41 per game (30th). We have 2 very good defenses in this game as well with both ranking in the top 15 in total defense. Liberty entered last week’s game vs UL Lafayette allowing just 18 PPG and it looks like they had a total meltdown on that side of the ball with the Cajuns scoring 42 points. That wasn’t the case as ULL had only 296 total yards and Liberty gave them a number of short fields with a -6 turnover margin in that game. Even though they played decent on defense, giving up their highest point total of the season will motivate this Liberty defense heading into this week. Let’s remember the week prior to their ULL game this Liberty defense allowed just 27 points to a potent Ole Miss offense. Army has had 4 games that have scored more than this total (53) vs WKY (7th in pace, 9th in offense, 110th defense), UConn (14th pace, 111th defense), WF (4th pace, 9th offense, 110th defense) and Bucknell (63-10 final). So all of Army’s higher scoring games were vs fast paced teams with poor defenses. That won’t be the case this week. For comparison, Army’s total vs WF was set at 54. Their total vs Western KY was set at 52. As we stated above those are fast paced teams with very good offense and defenses ranked below 100. Based on that, this total should be set in the 40’s. Our number has it at 47 so we think there is definite value in the Under. |
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