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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-25-18 | Avalanche v. Blues -164 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Now that Colorado's win streak has ended (at 10 games), it's probably time for them to start "giving some back." No one expected the Avs to be playoff contenders this year, not after setting records for futility last season w/ only 48 points and a -112 goal differential. Through just 47 games, they already have more points this season and would actually be a playoff team if the regular season were to end today. But the regular season obviously does not end today and I expect the Avs to fade in the second half. Tonight, they face one of the teams above them in the rugged Central Division, that being St. Louis, who is coming off just its third shutout victory of the season. Go with the home team here. A major reason for Colorado's recent success is that they were playing a lot of home games. They did win in Toronto to start the week, but that was one of just two wins away from home during the 10-game streak. The schedule caught up w/ them Tuesday as they finally lost, 4-2 in Montreal, in what was the second game of a back to back. They were outshot, 40-22. After playing 9 of 10 on home ice, the Avs' next four games will all be on the road as will six of the next seven. They've been outscored on the road so far, by about a half goal per game (pretty significant margin). Before the current trip began, no team in the league had played fewer road games. Expect goalie Jonathan Bernier to come back "down to Earth" soon as well. Blues' HC Mike Yeo has been using an unconventional lineup of late w/ 11 forwards and seven defensemen in the rotation. It certainly worked Tuesday in the 3-0 shutout of the Senators where they enjoyed a 41-25 edge in shots. In three of the four prior games, the team has allowed one goal or fewer. The exception came in a 5-2 home loss, to Arizona of all opponents. The Blues have definitely had the Avs' number the past several seasons, going 14-3-3 the L20 head to head matchups. The team ranks 4th in goals per game, which is obviously very impressive. As of press time, Yeo has not yet determined who will be starting between the pipes, but it's likely to be the red hot Carter Hutton, who has a .944 save percentage his L4 starts. 8* St. Louis |
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01-25-18 | Wild v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Over Wild/Penguins (7:05 ET): I think that it would certainly be fair to label both of these teams as "first half (of the season) disappointments," certainly when juxtaposed w/ LY's results. Pittsburgh has of course won B2B Stanley Cups. So for them to be on the periphery of playoff contention is certainly noteworthy. Minnesota finished w/ 106 pts LY, but would NOT be in the playoffs (if they started today) despite playing well of late. So a lot is on the line here tonight. Each team plays in the tougher division of their respective conference. Not sure who gets the two points, but I do like the total. Scoring is down for the Pens this year, but they still boast the league's top power play unit. The Wild have scored 14 goals the L4 games. Take the Over. Above, I mentioned that the Wild have been playing well of late. They come into tonight having won B2B games as well as four of the last five. They've been off for two days since beating Ottawa 3-1. Before that, it was an impressive 5-2 win over Tampa Bay. Both wins came at home, however. They totaled 71 shots, which is a nice number. But the road has been far less kind this season, especially on the defensive end as they are giving up 3.6 goals per game. The Over is 12-6 in Wild road games this season if the O/U line is 5.5. In goal, Devan Dubnyk has played really well of late (.940 save percentage L4 starts), but is probably due to drop off. The Over is 8-4-1 in his road starts this season. For Pittsburgh, Sidney Crosby has not scored a goal in the L4 games, so it's only a matter of time now before he finds the back of the net again. As for the rest of team, they have scored three or more goals in four of the previous five games (no OT). The Pens continue to do a good job of getting the puck on net as they average 34.5 shots per game, which is just behind Chicago for the most in the league. At home, the number of shot attempts per game jumps to 37.5! They've had no fewer than 31 shots in eight consecutive contests. As for who is going to be in goal tonight, there's still some question over that. Casey DeSmith has started the last three games, as #1 Matt Murray has been dealing w/ a personal issue, and played well. But similar to Dubnyk for the Wild, I don't see DeSmith maintaining those numbers. Tristan Jarry has struggled. 10* Over Wild/Penguins |
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01-24-18 | Kings v. Flames -154 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
8* Calgary (10:05 ET): Things have gotten interesting in the Pacific w/ the Flames climbing up into the top three. The team they passed, the Kings, is the one they'll host Wednesday. Of the 15 teams in the Western Conference, only three don't really have a realistic path to the postseason. It is an incredibly thin line between those in playoff position and those that are not. While Calgary would be in if the season ended yday, a loss here would have them out. The Wild Card race in the Western Conference is going to be incredibly competitive. The Flames have dropped B2B home games, but prior to that had won seven in a row. I see them regaining their previous form tonight on home ice. Meanwhile, the Kings are not in a good way. They've dropped seven of eight including an ugly one last night, 6-2 in Vancouver. They no longer are #1 in the league in goals allowed after Tuesday (now #2), though they still have the top PK unit. However, a key here will be who is in goal. Jonathan Quick was between the pipes again last night (for a 4th straight game, which includes a back to back), but does the team dare start him again here? His save percentage over those last four starts is just .885. The only other option is Darcy Kuemper. The team hasn't won w/ him in goal since December 7th. Last night, the Kings fell behind Vancouver 4-1, which prompted Quick to be pulled in favor of Kuemper. Even the top ranked PK unit gave up three goals. Again, this was against Vancouver, one of the worst teams in the league. Ironically, of these two teams, it has been Calgary that's been better on the goals allowed side of the ledger lately. They've allowed two goals or fewer in seven consecutive games. They now rank 8th in the league in goals allowed per game, not far behind LA. The offense has betrayed Calgary the L2 games as they've managed just two goals. But both losses occurred past regulation, one in OT and one in a shootout. During the seven-game win streak, the Flames scored at least three regulation goals six times. Likely starting in goal tonight will be Mike Smith and he has an other-worldly .965 save percentage his L4 starts. The Kings have been outscored 11-1 in the first period the last seven games. 8* Calgary |
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01-23-18 | Jets v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Jets/Sharks (10:35 ET): Call this a "West Side Story" as it's the Jets and Sharks facing off Tuesday. In the Western Conference, the Jets are one of your two division leaders, but it is by no means a firm hold as the Central is shaping up to be an incredibly tough race. Meanwhile, San Jose has inched its way up to second place in the Pacific, trailing only Vegas. But they too are by no means "in the clear" as only three points separate them from fourth place. So tonight's game definitely carries quite a bit of importance. The Sharks haven't been a dominant home team, but getting this game in "The Tank" is big simply because Winnipeg is 17-3-1 at their rink while just 11-10-6 on the road. Still, I'm staying away from the money line on this one. Looking at the total, San Jose has been one of the top Under teams in the league this season. It's them and SoCal rival Anaheim way out in front of the pack in that regard. The Under is 14-7-1 in their home games. But lately, the team has seen an uptick in scoring as they've averaged 3.6 goals over the L5 games. Since January 1st, they are actually tied for the league lead w/ 35 goals scored. Now, that average is somewhat inflated due to Sunday's six-goal effort, in Anaheim of all places. They scored those six goals despite just 26 shots, but I'd expect them to have more chances tonight as Winnipeg gives up a decent number of shots per game, at least on the road (32.7 per game). Aaron Dell is expected to start in goal for San Jose and while that's a good thing (he's top five in GAA and save percentage), tonight would mark the first time all season that he's started three consecutive games. Winnipeg is going to go w/ Connor Hellebuyck and for good reason as he is coming off a phenomenal week. But I expect regression as those kind of numbers simply cannot be maintained. He's also been quite a bit shakier on the road where his record is just 8-5-5. The Jets have gone Under in four consecutive games, totaling just five goals. So, at the same time, isn't it maybe time for a breakout offensively? I'd answer that in the affirmative as this team ranks 6th in the league in goals per game and also boasts the 2nd best power play. Look for a high-scoring affair tonight. 10* Over Jets/Sharks |
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01-23-18 | Blue Jackets v. Golden Knights -155 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Will Columbus be the latest victim of the so-called "Vegas flu?" One thing is for certain and that's visiting teams have not fared well in Sin City in this first season of professional hockey on the strip, winning just four times in 22 tries and just two of those victories occurred in regulation. The Golden Knights continue to be THE story in the league this year as they lead the Pacific Division w/ 66 points and a YTD goal differential of +34 (3rd best) indicates that there's nothing fluky about it. Columbus is treading water in the Metro right now as their 55 pts have them in a precarious third place position (would be guaranteed a playoff spot if they finish there). But the Blue Jackets have also been outscored over the course of the season. Tonight marks Vegas' return home after a 10-day road trip through the Southeast. They split four games, winning the last one, 5-1 over Carolina on Sunday. In three of the four games, they allowed just one goal (shutout in one of the two losses). So there's no real issue on that side of the ledger as goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has posted a .946 save percentage for the year and will very likely be back between the pipes this evening. Nor is there any real issue on the offensive end where the team ranks third in the league in goals per game. They are 14-8 SU after scoring 4+ goals their last time out and average 3.6 per game at home. Columbus is well-rested as they've been off since Thursday when they beat Dallas by a 2-1 count. But prior to that, they'd lost B2B games - to Vancouver and Buffalo no less. Scoring-wise, it looks to be a struggle for the Blue Jackets here as I seriously doubt they'll be able to "keep up" w/ the Golden Knights. The Jackets rank 28th in the league in goals per game and dead last (31st) on the power play (just 13.3 percent). That win over the Stars came on home ice and required a shootout. Their L3 wins have all come beyond regulation and they have just ONE regulation win since X-Mas! Overall, they're just 7-8-2 their L17 games. You have to go all the way back to December 29th to find the last time Columbus scored more than two goals in regulation. 8* Vegas |
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