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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-29-19 | Blues +102 v. Stars | Top | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): After sitting out the first two games, I'll finally make the jump into this series. (I've played at least one game of each of the other three second round series). Spoiler alert: I like the Blues in this series, but wanted to sit back and wait for the best spot to grab them. That time appears to be now. While Game 3 is in Dallas and the Stars are 4-1 this year vs. the Blues, St. Louis still grades out as the better team in my eyes, especially in the key metric of Corsi For % where they rank a strong 9th overall. Dallas is only 24th, second worst among playoff teams (Islanders). St. Louis certainly had no issue winning on the road in Round 1. They went 3-0 at Winnipeg, which is a tough place to play. The Jets were 25-12-4 SU at home in the regular season. Of course, the Blues have done plenty of winning over the last several months as they entered the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the Western Conference. Even after losing Game 2, they are still 29-13 SU in their last 42 games. Whereas Dallas ranked 2nd in the league in goals allowed during the regular season, St. Louis wasn't far behind, tied for 5th. In the playoffs, the Blues have given up 22 goals in eight games. The Stars have given up just 17 in the same number of games. But despite this, I think it's still worth mentioning that Dallas was only 28th in goals per game in the regular season. So after allowing four goals in Game 2, expect Blues goalie Jordan Bennington to have a bounce back game here. He led the league in goals against average (GAA) at 1.89 and remember that him taking over between the pipes was a real catalyst for the total team turnaround. The Blues have won five straight as underdogs. 10* St. Louis |
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04-28-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Avs/Sharks (7:05 ET): Game 1 of this series saw San Jose storm back from an early 2-1 deficit to win 5-2. The game clearly swung in the second period when the Sharks scored three straight times after killing off a four-minute penalty. They added an empty-netter for the final margin and the Over. There were not a ton of shots on goal in Game 1, so while seven of the previous eight meetings between these teams have gone Over the total (including five straight), I think we're in for a lower scoring Game 2. Take the Under here. San Jose has beaten Colorado all four times they've played this season. In all four wins, the Sharks have scored at least four goals, three times scoring five. That's not a recipe for success if you're the Avalanche, so they'll definitely have to "tighten up" if they want to take this series. Do I think the Avs are going to win this series? Not really, but I wouldn't want to fade them in this spot, especially at the "going rate." Remember, after losing Game 1 to Calgary in Round 1, the Avs would take four straight and hold the Flames to just seven total goals. The Flames were one of the highest scoring teams in the league. San Jose averages 3.7 goals per game on home, so they will be difficult to stop. But Calgary averaged more than 4.0 gpg on home ice, so the Avs have "been here before." As for their own scoring here, I'm not expecting them to have two goals on the board by early in the second period again. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times the Avs have been off a loss by 3+ goals, including Game 2 of the Calgary series. Since falling down 3-1 in their first round series w/ Vegas, the Sharks have been on fire. But remember that if it wasn't for that gift penalty in Game 7, they probably wouldn't be here at all. Look for them to start to cool down offensively. 10* Under Avs/Sharks |
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04-26-19 | Hurricanes +125 v. Islanders | Top | 1-0 | Win | 125 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Carolina (7:08 ET): I'm going to be putting "my foot down" (so to speak) in this series as I firmly believe Carolina is the better team here. Yes, they come in off a grueling 7-game series w/ Washington while the Islanders had a shockingly easy go of it in the 1st round, sweeping Pittsburgh. But that same "situational disadvantage" had little impact on the Bruins last night, though they were skating at home. Still, I lean on the fact the Hurricanes lead the league in Corsi For %, while the Isles rank a poor 27th in that key metric. Just like they did vs. the Capitals, I expect Carolina to control the puck in this series. I'm calling for a Game 1 "upset." The Islanders' transformation under HC Barry Trotz (who led Washington to the Stanley Cup LY) has been stunning. Last year's team gave up the most goals in league history over an 82-game season. This year's team allowed the fewest number of goals in the entire league! Goalie Robin Lehner held the Penguins to just six goals in four games. But I expect puck possession to play a vital role in this series. The bottom line is that no team is better in that department than Carolina. Lehner is going to face more shots than usual in this series. Carolina led the league in both shots per game and shot differential in the regular season. While there is some concern about the Hurricanes being only 48 hrs removed from a Game 7 (on the road) that required double overtime, the old issue of "rust" may very well apply here to the Islanders. They haven't played in 10 days. The Isles are just 2-5 SU this season when taking the ice on 3+ days rest. Despite more than doubling up Pittsburgh in goals scored in Round 1, the Islanders were outshot in the series. That catches up with them in Round 2 in what is a bad matchup (for them). Carolina has now won 34 of its last 51 games. 10* Carolina |
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04-25-19 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Blue Jackets/Bruins (7:05 ET): Columbus shocked the world in Round 1 by sweeping the 62-win Lightning. It wasn't just that the Blue Jackets advanced though; it was how. A 4-game sweep of a team that had outscored them 17-3 in the regular season and set various records in the process. Meanwhile, the Bruins had a much more challenging path to the second round as they were taken a full seven games by the Maple Leafs. But the bottom line is that Boston is one of only two higher seeds that won its first round series (San Jose being the other). These teams went almost a full calendary year w/o facing one another. But then they faced off three times in the final month of the regular season w/ the Bruins winning twice, including an overtime game in Columbus. The two games decided in regulation were both blowouts w/ the winning side scoring at least six goals. Nine of the last 10 meetings have gone Over the total, which is a bit of a surprise considering neither team is generally regarded as an "Over squad." In fact, both teams have seen far more Unders than Overs this season. Boston scored 4+ goals in all four victories in the 1st round series w/ Toronto. But in the three losses, they were held to two goals or fewer (just 4 goals total). This is a tough spot for the B's w/ them coming off a 7-game series while C-bus is off a 4-game sweep. Perhaps it's a question of "rest vs. rust," but the bottom line is that I do NOT see Boston winning a high-scoring game tonight. Fortunately, they were #3 in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. The Blue Jackets somehow held the Lightning (top scoring team in the L20 years!) to just eight goals in four games. The Under is 4-0 for Boston the L4 times they've faced an opponent that scored 5+ goals in its last game. In the close out game vs. TB, the Blue Jackets won 7-3. 10* Under Blue Jackets/Bruins |
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04-24-19 | Hurricanes +145 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
9* Carolina (7:35 ET): While there's been a very real home ice advantage so far in this series (home team is 6-0), I'm going to call for the road team to prevail here. Even though the teams have scored the same number of goals, my view is that Carolina has played better. They've outshot Washington 192-153, which is pretty substantial over a six-game sample size. I'm also going to again lean on the fact that the Canes are #1 in the league in Corsi For %, a key metric that actually foretold the Blue Jackets stunning 1st round upset of the Lightning. Carolina's defense has certainly frustrated the Capitals throughout the series and the 'Canes ability to get the puck on net has been a strength all season long. They were #1 in shots per game in the regular season as well as shot differential. An "X-factor" here is Carolina captain Justin Williams, who has an incredible history in Game 7's. He has 14 career points in Game 7's, an NHL record, with seven goals and seven assists. None of that has come w/ Carolina, but he brings not just Game 7 experience, but success, to the table. Washington goaltender Braden Holtby has a 3-4 SU career record in Game 7s. It would be easy to look at the home team being 6-0 in this series and go w/ the Caps, but my feeling is Carolina has been the better team and they steal Game 7. No repeat in the Nation's capital. 9* Carolina |
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04-22-19 | Predators +113 v. Stars | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* Nashville (8:35 ET): It's not just shocking that the Predators dropped Game 5, it's how. For the second game in a row, they allowed five goals. This was the #3 team in goals allowed during the regular season. Game 5 saw them allow five goals on just 26 shots, the second straight shaky performance from goalie Pekka Rinne. The Preds are now in danger of being the third division champ to get bounced from these playoffs and fifth higher seed to lose. I don't see that happening though, at least not yet. I like the Preds at 'plus money' in Game 6. I admit that I took Nashville in Game 5. I believe them to be the better team here as they rank significantly higher than Dallas in Corsi For %. Simply put, they do a better job at possessing the puck. They've outshot the Stars in all but one game in the series. But the last two games have not gone well w/ them losing 5-1 and 5-3. In the case of Game 4, that could be chalked up to a Dallas' power play scoring three times in the first period. But there were no PP goals allowed in Game 5, yet the Stars were still able to put together a three goal period. Why will it be different this time around for Nashville? Well, for starters, Dallas was just 9-26 SU after scoring 5+ goals prior to the previous game. Remember that during the regular season the Stars ranked just 28th in the league in goals per game, easily the lowest among all 16 playoff teams. Thus it's been pretty shocking to see them score 10 times in the L2 games, especially against a team like Nashville. My read is that the Predators are the better team in this series. They still have time to prove that. 10* Nashville |
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04-21-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Sharks/Knights (7:05 ET): Four 1st round playoff series are now complete and in all four the lower seeded team has advanced. That's pretty crazy. The most notable upsets have obviously been the top seed in each conference bowing out, including the shocking sweep of Tampa Bay by Columbus. Vegas looks to keep the trend of lower-seeded teams advancing Sunday night in Sin City. While the Golden Knights didn't have the home ice advantage coming into the series, they were able to take Game 2 in San Jose. Then came a pair of wins here at home where of course they have been magical since coming into existence. The Golden Knights have already failed in their first shot in closing out the series as they lost Game 5 in San Jose by a score of 5-2. Facing elimination, the Sharks got off to a fast start, scoring just 76 seconds into the game. They never trailed and spent most of the game enjoying a multi-goal advantage. However, here at T-Mobile Arena, the Golden Knights have to like their chances. They are 62-25-7 SU the L2 years at home, including 9-3 in playoff games. They won Game 3 by a score of 6-3 and Game 4 by a score of 5-0. The winning team of every game in this series has scored a minimum of five goals. The only game to stay Under thus far was the Game 4 shutout here in Vegas. I expect the Knights not to give up many again tonight as they were third best in the league in the regular season when it came to # of goals allowed at home. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 games in Vegas. 10* Under Sharks/Knights |
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04-20-19 | Jets v. Blues -134 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (7:05 ET): Enough is enough already! The road team has won all five games in this series, but what transpired in Game 5 may have set the stage for the home team to finally break through and thus end the series. Now it certainly looked as if Winnipeg was poised to win Game 5 at home. They took an early 2-0 lead (scored first goal just 12 seconds in) and carried that into the third period. But then the Blues stunned the Manitoba faithful by scoring three times in the final period, including the game-winner w/ just 15 seconds left in regulation. The series ends Saturday. My view was always that the Blues were the better team here. They have the higher Corsi For %, ranking 9th in the league in that key metric. (Winnipeg is 21st, third worst among playoff teams). For those unaware, Corsi For % is a measure of puck possession time. Obviously, the more a team controls the puck, the more likely they are to win the game. The Jets have allowed far too many shots on goals all season. In fact, in the regular season, they allowed an average of 33.7 shots per game. That's the most among the 16 playoff teams. (St. Louis allowed the 4th fewest at 28.6 per game). Another key coming into this series was play in the third period. Yes, that's obviously key in any game, but especially w/ these teams. In the regular season, Winnipeg had the lowest win percentage in games they led after two periods among the 16 playoff teams (.743) while St. Louis was 2nd worst in the entire league (.065) when trailing after two periods. The fact that the Blues have "stolen" two games (Gms 1, 5) in this series where they trailed entering the third period is huge and will end up being the difference. Also remember that the Jets are a sub-.500 team over the last two months. The Blues closed the regular season on a 24-6-4 SU tear and won 14 of their last 16 home games. The home team is "due" and the Blues close it out. 10* St. Louis |
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04-20-19 | Stars v. Predators -140 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
8* Nashville (3:05 ET): We're all even at two games apiece in this best of seven series, but the Predators still have the home ice advantage as two of the (if necessary) remaining three plays would be played at their rink. After dropping Game 1 here in Music City (3-2), the Preds were able to avoid what would have been a terrible 0-2 hole by taking Game 2 in overtime. In fact, the first three games of this series were all decided by one goal. But Game 4 was all Dallas as they scored four times in the first period en route to a comfortable 5-1 win. Now it's Nashville's time to respond. The Preds went 25-14-2 SU at home in the regular season, so home ice advantage does matter here. (Dallas is below .500 on the road this year). They see an uptick in shots, but more importantly is the decrease in goals allowed. Needless to say, we won't see anything resembling the first period the Stars put together in Game 4. Something key to note is that three of those four 1st period goals Dallas scored in Game 4 came via the power play. Before that, they were just 1 of 13 w/ the man advantage in this series. The Preds are 14-2 SU the L16 times they have been off a loss by 3+ goals. The Stars are not a prolific offensive team. In the regular season, they ranked 28th in the league in goals per game. That's easily the lowest ranking of all 16 playoff teams. In fact, the only other playoff team in the bottom 10 in scoring is the Islanders. Now both teams are quite stingy in the goals allowed department, each ranking in the top three in the league. But even though their power play is virtually non-existent, I've always felt the Preds' offensive edge would be the difference maker here. Also key is the fact they rank 7th in the league in Corsi For % while Dallas is just 24th. 8* Nashville |
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04-19-19 | Avalanche v. Flames -170 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -170 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
7* Calgary (10:05 ET): Pardon the pun, but we're one game away from BOTH of the top seeds in the NHL playoffs going down in "flames." Tampa Bay is out after a historically great regular season (62 wins!) and now - out West - Calgary faces the same fate if they don't win their next three games. For Flames' fans, this feeling has to be all too familiar. The last three times Calgary has won a division title, they've gone out in the first round. Then again, this is their first time as the top seed in the Western Conference since the 1988-89 season, the last time they won the Stanley Cup. But history doesn't matter to the Flames right about now, only the present does. They're down 3-1 to an Avalanche team they went 3-0 against in the regular season. Perhaps I'm biased, but outside of Game 3 (where they lost 6-2), I feel that Calgary has been the better team in this series. Twice they've lost in overtime, including Game 4 where they blew a two goal lead. (Unfortunately, I was on them). Game 2 saw them minutes away from taking a commanding 2-0 series lead only to give up a game-tying goal late in regulation. The Flames could easily be the ones up 3-1 in this series. Now they are back home. If you recall, I had them in Game 1 when they won here by a score of 4-0. A big problem for the Flames in the two games in Colorado was that they gave up a TON of shots. The number was 108 to be exact w/ the Avs posting 50+ in both games. That makes a goaltenders life very difficult. Fortunately, now that they're back home, I expect Calgary's offense to pick back up. They had the highest goals per game average at home of any team in the league in the regular season. I don't see them losing this series on home ice. 7* Calgary |
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04-17-19 | Flames -108 v. Avalanche | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10* Calgary (10:05 ET): The top-seeded Flames were minutes away from taking a commanding 2-0 series lead over Colorado. Instead, they now find themselves trailing 2-1 in the best of seven series. Back in Game 2, they gave up a game-tying goal w/ just under three minutes left in regulation and then lost in OT. Then they got flat out embarrassed in Game 3, losing 6-2 in Denver as they fell behind 3-0 after one period. Remember what I said in my Game 1 analysis - "It's been exactly 20 years since the Flames entered the playoffs as a top seed. The last time it happened (1988-89), they won the Stanley Cup. Since that time, they've won only three division titles. In what they hope is not an ominous precedent, they were out in the first round of the playoffs each of those three years."Â But in taking the Flames in Game 1, I said that this year's team looked to be different. They won Game 1, 4-0, and I haven't done anything in the series since. I'm stepping back in for Game 4 as I see the clearly better team trailing in the series and likely to even things up. This group was #4 in the league in Corsi For % and #2 in goal differential. Consider that they were north of -200 on the money line for Game 2. Now they're having to play on the road, but getting them at essentially "even money" looks to be a real value here. I spoke of Colorado's lack of depth previously. After their tremendous top line, there just isn't scoring much. In a move to address that concern, they called up rookie Cale Makar before Game 3. His impact was immediately felt w/ a goal scored in his first professional game. That said, I'm still a believer in Calgary. Only four times all season have they lost three or more games in a row. I consider the six goals allowed in Game 3 to be a total aberration considering they were #1 in the league during the regular season in goals allowed in road games. 10* Calgary |
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04-16-19 | Jets v. Blues -144 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (9:35 ET): The home team has yet to win a game in this series as the Blues took both games up in Manitoba while the Jets stayed viable in the series w/ a 6-3 win here in St. Louis in Game 3. Giving up six goals is NOT something we're accustomed to seeing w/ this Blues team that ranked in the top five in the league in goals allowed. I think we'll see the home side finally break through here in Game #4 Tuesday as they are still 14-3 their last 17 games here and have suffered just two losing streaks since the All-Star Break (which was at the end of January). The Blues, as you may know, were a solid home team in the regular season. As I already pointed out, they've won 14 of their last 16 regular season games here at the Enterprise Center to finish 24-15-2. It's not like the Jets are a great road team either (23-18-1). Overall, the Blues were the much better team down the stretch as they went 24-6-4 their last 34 regular season games. Meanwhile, Winnipeg stumbled badly, playing sub-.500 hockey over the last two months. They haven't even won B2B games since a four-game streak from March 14th-20th. A key in determining how this series ends up is the third period (I know, what a shock!). Winnipeg had the lowest win percentage in games they led after two periods among the 16 playoff teams (.743) while St. Louis was 2nd worst in the entire league (.065) when trailing after two periods. The Blues thus really "stole one" in Game 1 when they came back to score twice in the final 20 minutes. They have the higher Corsi For % (key metric) this season, which means they typically control the puck more than Winnipeg does. The Jets were actually 21st in Corsi For % (3rd lowest among playoff teams) and give up 33.4 shots per game (highest among playoff teams). St. Louis is better and the home team is due to breakthrough in the series. 10* St. Louis |
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04-16-19 | Islanders v. Penguins -163 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -163 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
7* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): Truthfully, I have not had the best record in this series, whiffing on every game thus far (0-3!). Twice, I've taken the Penguins to no avail and in Game 2 I lost w/ the Under. The fact the Pens currently trail the series 3-0 is downright shocking, at least to me, considering their own relative playoff resume and the inexperience of the Islanders. Plus, the Isles just scream "overachiver" to me, not just based on the fact they are last among playoff teams in Corsi For %, but also this stunning transformation that has taken place on the defensive end. It's probably too late for Pittsburgh to get back in the series, but certainly they can salvage a game on home ice. Pitttsburgh came in having won 9 of its last 10 playoff series (won Stanley Cup in 2016 and '17) while the Islanders have advanced past the first round of the playoffs just once since 1993. The Pens had not trailed 0-2 in any playoff series under HC Mike Sullivan until this one. But none of that matters now as the Islanders have led for all but four minutes of the last three games. That's pretty incredible when you think of all the offensive firepower that Pittsburgh possesses. But they've been held to just two goals in the last two games. On the bright side, they have not been beaten three straight times in regulation since November. I have to think there's some fight left. Somehow, the Pens have to find a way to solve Robin Lehner, who has a .951 save percentage in the series and a .931 save percentage for the season. Easier said than done, but it's doable. They did beat him three times in Game 1 (on 44 shots). Getting the power play going would also be huge. They are just 1 for 8 w/ the man advantage to this point in the series. I just don't think the Islanders can keep playing above their heads like this. 7* Pittsburgh |
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04-15-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -124 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10* Carolina (7:05 ET): The Hurricanes first playoff appearance in a decade figures to be a short one if they don't win here. But down 0-2 to the Capitals, the Canes return home to Raleigh for Game 3 Monday to play in front of what figures to be a pretty raucous crowd. The team went 24-13-4 SU on home ice during the regular season. While Washington has had Carolina's number in this series, and all season for that matter, you have to remember there wasn't much of a difference in the standings (just 5 points) or in YTD goal differential (+26 vs. +22). I'm siding w/ the home team in this virtual "do or die" scenario. Carolina was #1 in the league in Corsi For % during the regular season (54.9%). This means they were the best at controlling the puck, which is obviously vital to winning hockey games. Correspondingly, no team outshot its opponents on a per game basis by a wider margin. The Canes were #1 in the league w/ 34.4 shots per game and #3 in fewest shots allowed at 28.6 per game. In Game 1, they badly outshot the Capitals (29-18) while Game 2 was an overtime loss. Of course, none of the possession stats matter if they can't eventually outscore the Caps in a game. I think Monday is that time. This season has seen Carolina go 0-6 SU vs. Washington. The problem in the first two games of this series has been falling into early holes. The Hurricanes have been outscored 5-1 in the first period and that's pretty much put them "behind the 8-ball." But I'm thinking the home ice advantage for Game 3 is a "difference maker" as this is the first playoff game in Raleigh since 2009. These fans and this team didn't suffer through the longest postseason drought in the league to lose its first time at home. The Canes are 6-2 SU their last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 while Washington is 6-13 SU its last 19 games as a playoff underdog. 10* Carolina |
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04-14-19 | Islanders v. Penguins -177 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -177 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
6* Pittsburgh (12:05 ET): The Penguins find themselves in an 0-2 series hole right now, but the series w/ the Islanders now shifts back home. After outshooting the Isles in Game 1 (44-33), shots were pretty much even for Game 2, but NY scored twice in the third period. Up until that point, it had been a pretty even series w/ Game 1 going to OT. I just can't see the Pens going down 0-3, so while we have to lay some juice to do so, playing the home team looks to be the smart play for Game 3. I still have some doubts about the Islanders' long-term viability. The Islanders have been a somewhat remarkable story this season, their first under HC Barry Trotz, who led the Capitals to the Stanley Cup last season. Last year, the Isles set a record for most goals allowed in an 82-game season. This year, they allowed the fewest number of goals in the league. But they did so despite a 47.9 Corsi For percentage, which was not just the lowest among all playoff teams, but also sixth lowest in the entire league. When they take their act on the road, they are averaging just 27.5 shots per game, a very low number, so it's a wonder how they have a winning road record. Pittsburgh obviously has its collective back against the wall here and I expect them to play accordingly. That means an aggressive style. Sidney Crosby has zero points in this series and just three shots on goal. This is the first time they've been down 0-2 in a series under HC Sullivan. Remember that this is a team that's won 9 out of its last 10 playoff series as they won the Stanley Cup in both 2016 & '17. Playing short-handed too often has really hurt the Penguins in this series so far, but I expect them to play "cleaner," more mistake-free hockey in what is easily their biggest game of the season. 6* Pittsburgh |
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04-12-19 | Blues v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -128 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
8* Under Blues/Jets (9:35 ET): Anyone thinking it would be an easy "course correction" for Winnipeg following a poor finish to the regular season obviously better think again. The Jets dropped Game 1 to the Blues, at home, by a score of 2-1. The Jets have now six of eight going back to the end of March and most troubling of all is that includes four losses on home ice. The Game 1 loss was the most "back breaking" type possible as they'd scored first, only to give up two third period goals, including the game winner w/ just over two minutes left in regulation. I don't have enough confidence to back the Jets in this critical contest, but I do see another low scoring battle on tap for Game 2. Neither team got a ton of shots off in Game 1. Obviously, it was a 1-0 game heading into the third period. The two power plays combined to go 0 for 4, which continues a trend we saw in the regular season meetings. In five games vs. the Blues this season, Winnipeg is just 3 for 19 w/ the man advantage. St. Louis is 3 for 16. Winnipeg actually has the lowest win percentage among the 16 playoff teams when leading after two periods (.743). So Game 1 was not anything new. But it was for St. Louis, who had the second WORST win percentage in the league when trailing after two periods (2-29, .065). The number of shots allowed by the Jets could be a problem moving forward, but the Blues are stingy, ranking in the top five in goals allowed and top 10 in penalty killing.They were a strong Under team all year and are 43-19-4 Under their L66 games as a road underdog. They are also 4-0 Under the L4x being a playoff underdog. The Under is 5-0-1 the L6x times Winnipeg has been a playoff favorite. 8* Under Blues/Jets |
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04-12-19 | Penguins -123 v. Islanders | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -123 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): When it comes to teams without home ice advantage being favored to win in Round 1, the Penguins were probably the pick of most. But they dropped Game 1 here in New York, in overtime, by a score of 4-3. It was a game the Pens never led as every time they tied it up, the Islanders would re-take the lead. The pattern throughout the game was the Isles go up by a goal, then the Pens tie it up. Pittsburgh now faces the possibility of an 0-2 deficit, which is not overwhelming, but something they'd certainly hope to avoid. I'm coming back w/ them in Game 2. The Penguins did have the edge in shots on goal, 44-33, in Game 1. Getting off that many shots and scoring three times is actually an encouraging sign against a team like the Islanders, who were #1 in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. For whatever reasons, Pittsburgh has not fared well in close games this season, posting a .452 win percentage in one-goal affairs and they win only 59.6% of the team when scoring first. But I don't think any serious conclusions can be drawn after just one game. I still consider Pittsburgh to be the betting favorite for Game 2 (as do the oddsmakers). I think it is important to note what a surprise the Isles were this season. They went from giving up the most goals in an 82-game season in HISTORY to #1 in the league in goals allowed. That's a remarkable transformation under HC Barry Trotz. But no playoff team had a worse Corsi For percentage in the regular season (47.9) and that number was actually sixth worst in the entire league! Come playoff time, controlling the puck is critical. The Islanders got away w/ not doing so in Game 1, just like they have most of this year. But can it continue? My guess is "no." Only 47.7% of the Isles' even strength shifts start in the offensive zone, which is a bad number. 10* Pittsburgh |
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04-11-19 | Avalanche v. Flames -178 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
6* Calgary (10:05 ET): It's been exactly 20 years since the Flames entered the playoffs as a top seed. The last time it happened (1988-89), they won the Stanley Cup. Since that time, they've won only three division titles. In what they hope is not an ominous precident, they were out in the first round of the playoffs each of those three years. But this time should clearly be different. The Flames were pretty easily the best team in the West this season, outscoring opponents by 62 goals. No other team in the Conference had a goal differential better than +28. It should be an easy win for the home team here in Game 1. Having the home ice advantage is pretty big for Calgary. They averaged 4.05 goals per game at home during the regular season. Consider that the Lightning had the highest goals per game average we've seen in the league in 20+ years and the Flames outscored them when it came to home games. (When they eventually have to go to Colorado, Calgary will be in good shape too. They were tied for fewest goals allowed on the road this season). Colorado is not a great road team as is evident by the fact they went 17-16-8 in the regular season. The Flames won all three regular season meetings against the Avalanche, including one where they were outshot 35-16. Sure enough, the two games here in Calgary saw them score a total of 11 goals. The Avs did a nice job of getting here. While they may boast the top line in the sport, Mikko Rantanen has not played in a game since March 21st. Arguably, the Avs have the worst depth of any playoff team. After taking their foot "off the gas" a little bit down the stretch, the Flames will start this series w/ a big win in front of what should be a very fired up crowd. 6* Calgary |
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04-10-19 | Penguins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Under Penguins/Islanders (7:30 ET): I think that given how surprising the Islanders' success was this season, a lot of folks are going to be taking the Penguins to win this series. But be careful about that. The Isles ranked 1st in the league in goals allowed, giving up just 2.33 goals per game. All but three other teams gave up at least 25 more goals over the 82-game regular season schedule. Despite being division rivals, these teams have not met since December. Five of the last six meetings here in New York have stayed Under the total, including both this season. I'm on the Under for Game 1. Pittsburgh, as per usual, ranked near the top of the league in goals scored (6th). But roughly 21% of their goals came from the power play. In the playoffs, they figure to have far less chances w/ a man advantage. In the two regular season visits to Brooklyn this year, the Pens were held to 2 goals each time and that was while going 2 for 6 on the PP. We shouldn't have to worry at all about the Islanders' PP as it ranked 29th in the regular season, converting at just 14.5%. The Under went 50-27-5 in all Isles games this year, including 25-8-2 when facing an opponent w/ a winning record. The Islanders should have a clear edge between the pipes in this series as they have two strong netminders. Robin Lehner had a .934 even strength save percentage in the regular season while Thomas Greiss was slightly better (.937), albeit w/ a slightly lighter workload. Lehner is getting the Game 1 start. In two starts vs. Pittsburgh this year, he stopped 46 of 49 shots. Down the stretch, Pittsburgh was an Under team as 8 of their last 10 games have ended that way. I have faith goalie Matt Murray will be better tonight than he was for most of the regular season. 10* Under Penguins/Islanders |
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04-06-19 | Hurricanes v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Hurricanes/Flyers (7:05 ET): Carolina nabbed its first playoff berth since '09 by beating New Jersey 3-1 on Thursday. They'll likely end up as a Wild Card, though they could move up to third place in the Metro by winning tonight and the Penguins losing (in regulation) to the Rangers (unlikely). Look for the Canes to bring the offense tonight in Philadelphia, who has given up a total of 13 goals its last two games, both of them bad losses. Inconsistent goaltending has plagued the Flyers all season and is a significant reason why this is their last game of the season. I'm not convinced that Carolina will last very long in the playoffs, but one thing to like about this club is that they average a league-high 34.5 shots per game. Moreover, they have the best shot differential in the league. The Under has gone 6-1 in their last seven games, but the one exception was a home game against these Flyers, which they won 5-2. The Canes have totaled seven goals in their last two games as well, so the number of goals is finally matching the number of shots, which was NOT the case early in the season. The Over has cashed in five of their last six visits to Philly. The Flyers were flat out embarrassed their last game. They gave up five first period goals to St. Louis on Thursday, the first time the franchise has done that since 1997. They lost 7-3 and that was on the heels of a 6-2 loss in Dallas. I do expect better effort in this final game of the year as it's at home and the players openly talked about being embarrassed about the effort in St. Louis. The Over is 4-1 the Flyers' last five games w/ them allowing 25 goals and at least three in every game. They are 0-3 vs. Carolina this season, allowing 13 goals. So we know Philly is likely to give up their "fair share" here. After all, they are 29th in the league in goals allowed. But expect them to score a few of their own as well. 10* Over Hurricanes/Flyers |
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04-04-19 | Canadiens v. Capitals -133 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): Montreal is just trying to get into the playoffs as right now they are tied w/ Columbus (94 pts each) for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The team holding the top WC spot, Carolina, has 95 pts. So obviously there's a lot of shuffling that can still take place after these next two games. The Habs definitely have a tall order in front of them though as they must play Washington tonight followed by a home game against Toronto. Then again, they did just beat Tampa Bay and Winnipeg, two other division leaders, so if the Habs were to make the playoffs, they'd have some confidence even as a Wild Card. But this is a tough one as it's on the road. The Caps, unlike Tampa Bay Tuesday, still have something to play for. They're trying to lock down 1st place in the Metro, which they would do w/ a win tonight. Now they already blew a first opportunity to do so by losing at Florida Monday night. That loss snapped a four-game losing streak and was on the heels of their own win over the league-leading Lightning. It was also a third road game in five nights. The Caps certainly came out like a team that was fatigued, considering they fell behind 4-0 before a third period rally made it close. These teams haven't met since November when they split a pair of high-scoring games w/ the home team winning each time. Washington has lost only 10 times in regulation at home all season. Only three teams can say they've lost fewer. Meanwhile, Montreal remains a losing proposition on the road despite a 6-1-1 run overall. Something to keep in mind moving forward is that the Habs convert at a league-worst 12.5% on the power play. Montreal has been a nice surprise this season, but Washington is the better team here and is a good value on the ML. 10* Washington |
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04-03-19 | Flames -168 v. Ducks | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -168 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
7* Calgary (10:35 ET): The Flames have locked up not only the Pacific Division, but also the best record in the Western Conference. They will be a top seed for the 1st time since 1989 when they last won the Stanley Cup. Note they have won the Pacific three times since then and every time were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Despite having little to play for in these final two regular season games, I like the Flames quite a bit here as they try and build more momentum for the playoffs and also reverse an "ugly" history here in Anaheim. The better team is being severely undervalued in this spot. Anaheim has had a terrible year. It actually started well w/ a 5-1-1 record the first seven games. They were even a respectable 19-11-5 at the 35-game mark. Since then, the bottom has dropped out w/ a 14-26-5 mark. Really, things have been even worse than that record indicates. Due in large part to having scored the fewest number of goals in the league (191 in 80 games), they have the second worst goal differential (-57), trailing only division mate Los Angeles. The Ducks are off a rare win, 5-1 over Edmonton, on Saturday. While they have been more competitive down the stretch, the bottom line is that they have won B2B games just two times since the All-Star Break. Calgary has lost 32 of its last 42 visits to The Pond, but for most of them, they were the inferior team. Not anymore. They last visited here back in November, which is before the Ducks tanked. Since then, the teams have met twice in Calgary w/ the Flames winning both times. The latest meeting just took place Friday and Calgary romped to a 6-1 victory. While the Flames might be the highest scoring team in the league at home, they are tied for giving up the fewest on the road. Also, they are still one of just nine teams averaging at least 3.0 gpg away from home. 7* Calgary |
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04-02-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets -134 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
8* Columbus (7:05 ET): Playoff spots are starting to be filled in the Eastern Conference where five teams have now clinched. We know one of the spots will go to whomever finishes third in the Metro. Then comes the two Wild Cards. Currently fourth in the Metro, Columbus is finally playing like a team that wants to compete for the Stanley Cup. They are three points back of Pittsburgh for third place, but more pressing is that two teams (Carolina & Montreal) are within two points in the Wild Card. It's very likely Pittsburgh makes the playoffs, so that means among the other three (C-bus, Carolina, Montreal), one team is going to be the "odd man out." The Blue Jackets need this game badly. I'll take 'em. As I already mentioned, the Blue Jackets have won five straight. The win streak couldn't be more timely given what's at stake. But all its done (for now) is put them in the top Wild Card spot. This is a team far too talented to miss the playoffs, IMO. They've finally started to play up to their potential in these last five games, outscoring the opposition 24-4 w/ three shutouts. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is playing exceptionally well of late w/ a .957 save percentage his L11 starts, stopping 309 of 323 shots. He leads the league w/ nine shutouts this year, the latest being a 38-save effort at Buffalo on Sunday. Four of those nine shutouts have come in his L7 starts! This is the time of year you want your goalie to be peaking and that's precisely what Columbus is getting right now. Boston is playing like a team that's already wrapped up a playoff berth. Though they've yet to clinch it, it's exceedingly likely the Bruins will have home ice advantage in their first round playoff series w/ Toronto. The last two games have resulted in losses to non-playoff teams Florida (4-1) and Detroit (6-3). The Bruins are a subpar road team anyway (18-15-6) and the home team captured both meetings when these teams faced off twice last month. Considering the way Bobrovsky and the Jackets have been playing, I can't help but back them. 8* Columbus |
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04-01-19 | Avalanche v. Blues -162 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
7* St. Louis (8:05 ET): This is a critical game. St. Louis has already clinched a playoff spot, but is thinking bigger right now as improbably they have a shot at still winning the Central Division. A win here would potentially place them into a three-way tie for first w/ Winnipeg and Nashville, who have been battling out all year (Winnipeg plays at Chicago tonight). The Blues, who have won five of six, have been as hot as any team in the league over the second half of the season. They are 21-6-3 the L30 games. They've lost just twice at home during that span. Colorado's future is more precarious right now. The Avs currently hold a one-point edge over Arizona for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. If they end up not making the playoffs, a league high 13 losses past regulation may very well be the culprit. Lately though they have not done much losing. They are 6-0-1 the past seven games, including a home win over Arizona (in a shootout) on Friday. The fact they've done that w/ two of their best players - Gabe Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen - missing time is especially impressive. Goalie Philipp Grubauer has been out of his mind lately. Not sure Grubauer can keep it up though as maintaining a .957 save percentage from those L7 games seems unrealistic. If he's back between the pipes tonight, that would make it eight straight starts, which is very uncommon. St. Louis is 3-0 vs. Colorado this season. While two of the wins have been in OT, only one was here on home ice where they are 5-1 the L6x playing the Avs. The Blues have won 10 of the past 13 head to head matchups and they are the better team overall. 7* St. Louis |
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03-28-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -133 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -133 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Carolina (7:05 ET): This is a very important game in the Metro and a potential first round playoff preview to boot. Washington currently leads the division w/ 98 points, but both Pittsburgh and the Islanders are hot on their heels w/ 95 apiece. Carolina is just trying to make sure they get into the playoffs as their 91 points have them in the top Wild Card spot. Barring any kind of huge finish to the regular season, the 'Canes likely best case scenario is the WC, but they best be wary as Columbus and Montreal are both close behind and only two of those three can make the playoffs. So now that the stage is set, who is going to come through? If this ends up being a 1st round playoff matchup, then Carolina has already gotten a taste of what they're up against. They just lost 4-1 in the Nation's Capital on Tuesday and are 0-3 against the Caps this season. But it's them w/ the home ice advantage tonight, something they've had only once in the three prior matchups. That game, which took place all the way back in December, went to a shootout (6-5 loss). But over the past 2.5 months, the Hurricanes have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league. They almost always do a great job of getting a lot of shots on goal as they lead the league in that statistic. Washington is only 3-2-1 its last six games. The difference against Carolina Tuesday was three third period goals, which broke open a game that had been even up until that point. Despite that result, Carolina has actually been the better team in the second half, winning 26 of its last 38 games while the Capitals are just 21-18 in their L39. The Caps have a losing record this year when coming off a game where they score four or more goals. Carolina needs this game badly and a strong finish to the regular season. I believe they'll be the more motivated side tonight and I'll take 'em. 8* Carolina |
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03-27-19 | Maple Leafs -145 v. Flyers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:05 ET): Philadelphia is still technically alive in the playoff hunt, but things aren't looking so good w/ a 10-point deficit to make up w/ just six games to play. A loss here would all but officially eliminate them from contention. While there was a time that the Flyers were the hottest team in the league (won 8 straight around the All-Star Break), that time has since past w/ the club going just 4-6 its L10 games, including three straight losses here at home and B2B losses overall. Sunday's 3-1 loss at Washington all but put the final nail in their coffin. Toronto comes in still hopeful that it can wrest away second place in the Atlantic and thus home ice advantage for what has been inevitable first round playoff series against Boston. Led by the first 4-goal effort of John Tavares' career, the Maple Leafs won 7-5 over Florida on Monday. Now they'll look to make it B2B wins for the first time since the beginning of the month. While they may only be third in their own division, I have the Leafs rated very high in my overall power rankings (4th overall!), so pay little mind to their designation within the Atlantic. They've outscored the opposition by 43 goals this year. While both this game and the next one (at Ottawa) are on the road, this should be an easy upcoming four points for Toronto. Note they did already beat the Flyers this month, albeit at home, and it was another game where they scored seven goals. They gave up six, but I don't see Philadelphia capable of a similar effort here considering they've scored just nine goals in the five games since. The Leafs are 23-7 their L30 games as a ML favorite of -110 to -150, including 12-3 on the road. They are also 19-7 their L26 after scoring 5+ goals the last game. 10* Toronto |
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03-23-19 | Coyotes -170 v. Devils | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -170 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
7* Arizona (1:05 ET): Both teams enter this Saturday matinee on three-game losing streaks. But that's where the similarities end. Perhaps the biggest difference between Arizona and New Jersey is the fact the former is fighting for a playoff spot while the latter has LONG been out of contention and officially eliminated. With Minnesota winning last night, the Coyotes are one point out of the Wild Card. So they need this game - badly. Look for them to get the two points as they're 10-4 the last 14 games vs. teams w/ a sub-.500 record. New Jersey is quite bad. They've spent much of this season in last in the Metro and they have the fourth fewest points in the league. Their three game losing streak has seen them get outscored 12-2 and generally be not competitive. The Devils rank 29th in the league in goals allowed and I wouldn't look for them to get much offense against a Coyotes club that ranks in the top 10 in goals allowed. They managed just 22 shots on goal in a 5-1 loss to Boston Thursday night. That was their 5th consecutive home loss, a streak which dates back to last month. Arizona has already dropped two games to non-playoff teams recently, so another one would be borderline unacceptable. They were beaten 4-2 at Florida Thursday, even though they finished w/ a 34-22 edge in shots. Note the 'Yotes were ML dogs in each of their last two losses. They are 5-1 L6 when priced between -151 and -200 on the ML. They are priced appropriately in this one and I'll grab 'em. 7* Arizona |
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03-21-19 | Sharks -210 v. Kings | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -210 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
6* San Jose (10:35 ET): Normally, I wouldn't want to lay this much juice, but I'll make an exception here for the Sharks, who should absolutely roll tonight in LA. Much like when I took Winnipeg earlier this week, beating the Kings is a must here for the Sharks. The Jets are locked in a tight battle w/ Nashville for 1st in the Central, so they "had to have" the two points against arguably the worst team in the league Monday. They got the job done (did take OT) and so should San Jose, who finds itself locked into a tight battle w/ Calgary for the top spot in the Pacific. Again, they need these two points and the sorry Kings should be happy to oblige. San Jose has not helped itself recently by losing three straight games. This followed a six-game win streak. So off three straight defeats, the Kings are the exact team the Sharks needed to face right now. A real positive is that San Jose is already 3-1 SU this season when off three or more straight losses. The most shocking thing about the current losing skid is that all three losses came at home and that they allowed 15 goals. Monday saw them get destroyed by Vegas, 7-3, so the team should be eager to hit the ice here. The Kings have also lost their last three games. But the big difference between them and the Sharks is the amount of losing that preceded these matching streaks. Los Angeles has won only twice in its last 18 games overall and has the worst goal differential in the sport at -60. They have scored the fewest goals in the league, which is always a problem, but especially tonight against a team like San Jose that ranks 2nd in the league in goals per game. The Sharks have won five of their previous six visits to Staples Center and should win in a rout tonight. This matchup is appropriately priced. 6* San Jose |
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03-20-19 | Senators v. Canucks -163 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
7* Vancouver (10:05 ET): Anytime you can go against Ottawa at this price, it's worth the shot. The Senators are wrapping up a truly miserable season, one which may end w/ them having the fewest points in the entire league. Right now, they own that distinction w/ 56, which is two back of the Kings. Given how Ottawa has played this year, the Kings are the only team they might finish ahead of. The Sens' play on the road has been truly horrific w/ them going 9-25-2 SU and giving up 4.3 goals per game (league high). They also allow a league high in shots per game at 36.0. Vancouver still has a slim shot at making the playoffs, believe it or not, even though they are below .500 on the year. Truthfully, their league-leading 10 losses beyond regulation are what will be their undoing. But they are still only six points back of the Wild Card after winning two straight. Both wins came on the road, against Dallas and Chicago (whom they're competing w/ for a WC), by identical 3-2 scores. The Canucks had really been struggling before those two wins and admittedly, win streaks of three or more games have been few and far between this season. They've had three all year and all three were before Christmas. But this is as favorable a spot as Vancouver will face all season w/ the worst team in the league (points wise) making its lone visit to British Columbia. I really cannot stress just how bad the Senators have been on the road this season. They're being outscored by 1.5 goals per game. Only four other teams are even being outscored by a full goal per game. I should also mention that in a real rarity - Ottawa is also off B2B wins here as they beat St. Louis 2-0 and Toronto 6-2. But both wins were at home. Something has to give here and I believe Vancouver is in much better position to continue its win streak. 7* Vancouver |
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03-18-19 | Jets -170 v. Kings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
7* Winnipeg (10:35 ET): We're down to the home stretch in the NHL regular season. Being that they've been locked into a tight battle for 1st place in the Central (w/ Nashville) all season long, the Jets certainly don't want to blow it now. They've got two games in hand as well, which is probably even more important right now than being one point ahead of the Predators. It's an advantage they don't want to waste away and fortunately for Winnipeg is they draw the lowly Kings tonight. Even w/ the game in LA, the opponent should be all-too accomodating for an easy two points. While they may not have the fewest points (Ottawa does), I have the Kings ranked as the worst team in the league this season. They have a league-worst -59 goal differential, a metric which is far more important than the number of points a team has. Granted, LA doesn't have many points (58) and is buried at the bottom of the Pacific. They've scored the fewest number of goals in the league and that's a problem against anyone, let alone the 6th highest scoring team in the league (Winnipeg). The Kings have won only two of their last 17 games overall. Winnipeg just beat two very good teams, Boston and Calgary, at home. While not quite as strong on the road as they are on home ice, the Jets have the edge in every statistical category in this matchup w/ the Kings. They just went 5-3 SU in an eight-game stretch against all likely playoff teams. Meanwhile, LA has lost 12 of 13 to teams that have winning records. A real key here could be Winnipeg's 4th ranked power play going against LA's 29th ranked penalty killing unit. The Jets are a far better team even at even strength, if they get a man advantage this one could turn ugly in a hurry. 7* Winnipeg |
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03-17-19 | Panthers v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
10* Under Panthers/Ducks (9:05 ET): Neither of these teams will be going to the playoffs, but those respective fates have been known for some time now. Anaheim actually has the 2nd worst goal differential in the sport (-55) right now, which is due in large part to the fact they are the lowest scoring team in the league. But they have been somewhat of a "tough out" down the stretch, winning five of their last eight games. They just dealt a severe blow to Colorado's playoff chances w/ a 5-3 road win on Friday. I don't think they'll be scoring anywhere close to five goals again tonight though. Similar to Anaheim, Florida may be out of realistic playoff contention, but they haven't given up on the season. The Panthers are on a four-game win streak entering tonight as they just won in LA, 4-3, Saturday night. They've totaled 20 goals during the four-game win streak. But that's an average I cannot see being maintained moving forward. This is one of the highest scoring stretches of the year for the Panthers and thus they are due for a bit of a "correction." The Under is 4-1-2 in their last seven meetings w/ the Ducks. Anaheim is a pretty clear Under team, which is just the opposite of Florida. The Ducks are 22-8-1 Under against Eastern Conference teams this season and an even stronger trend is the fact they are 9-1 Under following a win by two or more goals. Both offenses are set to "cool off" here. 10* Under Panthers/Ducks |
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03-15-19 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs -190 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
6* Toronto (7:05 ET): This is a virtual "must-win" for the Maple Leafs after their miserable showing (here at home!) against Chicago Wednesday. It was actually the Leafs' second straight home defeat. The first, a 6-2 loss at the hands of Tampa Bay, was pretty embarrassing. But, even though the final score ended up being 5-4, the loss to the Blackhawks was probably worse. The Leafs trailed 5-0 midway through the second period (4-0 after 1st period!) and didn't pull within a goal until little more than a minute was left in regulation. This was a game where they closed -240 on the money line! Toronto has been a money loser of late as two of their last three losses have come in games where they were north of -200 on the ML. This obviously does not help in their battle w/ Boston for 2nd place in the Atlantic and the home ice advantage that would come w/ that for what seems like an inevitable 1st round playoff series. Yet, despite the recent slide, Toronto still ranks 3rd in the league in goal differential (+46) and had been 2nd before suffering the B2B losses. On a positive note, the Leafs are 16-5 SU this season after giving up 4+ goals in the previous game. I think the late comeback attempt vs. Chicago will have a carryover-type effect here. Philadelphia is playing in the second night of a back to back, which also helps Toronto. This season has seen the Flyers get outscored 41-29 in the 2nd game of a B2B. They lost last night, 5-2 at home to Washington, leaving them five points out of playoff position. When both end up missing the playoffs, maybe the Flyers and Sabres can get together and have a discussion on meaningless win streaks. Subtract Philly's eight-game win streak from 1/14 to 2/4 and you have a team w/ a YTD record of 26-28-8. The only previous meeting between these teams this season resulted in a 6-0 Toronto win. The Leafs are significantly better than the Flyers and get the two points. 6* Toronto |
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03-14-19 | Ducks v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
10* Under Ducks/Coyotes (10:05 ET): The bottom of the Pacific is a pretty ugly scene right now. I've got the bottom four teams all ranked in my bottom eight in the league. Anaheim and it's -52 goal differential is really close to the bottom and it's incredible to think this team was once 19-11-5. But they were winning in a non-sustainable manner (lots of comebacks) and are 9-23-4 SU since. The Ducks' biggest problem is clearly offense as they rank last in the league in goals per game w/ only 2.27. They are a top Under team (43-23-4 overall) and that's the way I see this one going. The Coyotes are still fighting for a playoff spot. Right now, they would be the final Wild Card in the Western Conference, which seems shocking. But save for a dismal showing at Chicago on Monday (lost 7-1), this club is playing well. Their only other loss in the last 11 games came to, ironically enough, Anaheim. They lost 3-1, right here at home. It's difficult to imagine the same fate happening twice, though the Ducks have won four of six and all four wins were against teams currently vying for a playoff spot. Arizona is a top 10 teams in this league in goals allowed. They're (not surprisingly) a little more stingy here on home ice where they give up only 2.6 goals per game. But, like Anaheim, the 'Yotes biggest issue resides at the other end. They are 28th in goals per game. So we're looking at a battle of two of the four lowest scoring teams in the league. That seems conducive to an Under, especially considering how the last meeting went. The Coyotes' completed their last home stand by allowing just 12 goals in seven games. 10* Under Ducks/Coyotes |
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03-14-19 | Penguins -179 v. Sabres | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Penguins recorded a very important 5-3 win in their last game, beating the 1st place team in the Metro (Washington). I won w/ the Over in that contest, but was not the least bit surprised to see the Pens get the two points. After all, they came into the game sporting a better YTD point differential than the Caps. Tonight's opponent (Buffalo) is one that has been struggling for awhile now. The Sabres have lost five in a row, 11 of 13, and they've been shutout in each of the last two games. Really, when you subtract that 10-game win streak back in November, this season has been an utter failure in upstate New York. Without the win streak, the team's won-loss record on the season dips to 20-30-9, a win percentage of roughly .333. Though beating Washington was huge, Pittsburgh cannot afford to rest on their laurels. They are now top three in the Metro, but they're just four points away from being out of the playoffs entirely. I don't see the Penguins missing the playoffs. They've turned it on of late, winning five of six. The lone loss came in the second game of a home and home w/ Columbus. Adding to the motivation here is the fact it's a double revenge spot. Two weeks ago, the Pens lost here in Buffalo by a score of 4-3. They also lost to them 5-4 at home back in November. The loss earlier this month was an OT game where the Sabres were able to tie things up late in the third period. Pittsburgh had a 44-30 edge in shots. Buffalo figured to be "up against it" in this one anyway, but compounding matters is the fact Jack Eichel (their best player) is suspended. Eichel was dinged for two games due to a hit to the head in Saturday's loss to Colorado. The team's first game w/o its leading scorer did not go well as they were blanked 2-0 by the Stars. Note both Sabres wins this season against the Pens required extra time. They won't be so lucky tonight in a spot that screams "blowout" for Pittsburgh. 6* Pittsburgh |
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03-13-19 | Rangers v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Rangers/Canucks (10:05 ET): Neither of these teams were expected to be playoff contenders this year and it's readily apparent now that the respective prophecies will be fulfilled. The Rangers come in having dropped seven of eight, five of those losses coming beyond regulation. They have 69 points and figure to finish ahead of only lowly New Jersey in the Metro. Vancouver has lost 8 of 10 and they're tied for second to last in the Pacific. Somebody has to win tonight, by money is on the Over as this should be a high-scoring game between two bad teams. The Canucks just gave up six goals in a loss to Vegas Saturday night. They've been off ever since. A lack of goal scoring has been another problem w/ the club averaging only 1.8 gpg over its last five contests. But they should get their share of scoring opportunities tonight against a Rangers team that gives up 35.6 shots per game on the road. Looking at road games only, NY has also given up the 4th most goals per game in the league. They "only" allowed three in a loss to Edmonton Monday, but were a little fortunate that number wasn't higher considering the Oilers found the back of the net twice in the opening 10 minutes. With both teams eyes to the future, I don't expect defense to be a high-priority in this game. The Under is 4-0-1 in the month of March for the Rangers, but this is an opponent they can break out against offensively. In its last six games, Vancouver has allowed fewer than three goals just once. It was a 2-1 final (Rangers won) when these team met back in November, but that was a game where the teams combined to go 1 for 10 on the power play. Nearing the end of the year, this should be a much different kind of game. 10* Over Rangers/Canucks |
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03-12-19 | Capitals v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Over Capitals/Penguins (7:05 ET): These two long-standing rivals have played three times this season. The last two were both low-scoring affairs, a 2-1 final each time. Both of those games were played in D.C. and each team won once. The last time they faced off, believe it or not, was December. But there was a high-scoring game here in Pittsburgh, played all the way back on Oct 4 w/ the Penguins prevailing 7-6. That was the night after Washington raised its 1st Stanley Cup banner (beat Boston 7-0) and the season opener for the Pens. Fast forward to the present and I'm expecting another high-scoring affair tonight. Take the Over. After scoring a total of 13 goals in its first two games of the season, Washington has remained one of the league's top offensive teams. They are 7th in the league in goals per game (3.38) and really have turned it on as of late. The Caps come into tonight riding a seven-game win streak (now 1st in the Metro w/ 89 pts) and have scored 30 goals in those seven games. They've only conceded one in the last two games, but both of those were at home. They've also faced a very favorable schedule w/ only one of the last seven opponents likely making the playoffs (that would be Winnipeg). Bottom line is I expect Washington to continue to score tonight, but they will be tested defensively. Pittsburgh is 5th in the league in goals per game (3.42), so they are slightly more prolific than the Caps. Like their rival, they've been scoring plenty as of late (scored 27 goals L8 games), but have been stingier than normal as well. In fact, the Penguins' last five games have all stayed Under the total. They've allowed just nine goals during that time, but like Washington, they rank in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed over the course of this season. I'm a little concerned w/ the workload of goaltender Matt Murray, who just started three games in four nights, including back to back games. His save percentage of .947 in those four games prob can't be maintained. 10* Over Capitals/Penguins |
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03-09-19 | Devils v. Rangers -170 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
7* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): There's little on the line tonight at MSG with both the Devils and Rangers essentially out of playoff contention. But there is a pride factor at play as the Devils have lost five straight and the Rangers have lost six straight. Normally, I might just choose to skip this one altogether, but it's the second night of a back to back for the road team (New Jersey) and that presents an edge for NY. The Devils were shutout last night (3-0 by Washington), the second time that's happened to them in the last three games. They've scored a total of five goals during the five-game losing skid. While the Devils have earned just a single point in their five-game skid (lost to Columbus in a shootout), the Rangers have actually picked up four points in their losing streak. Losing four times in OT/shootout is pretty unlucky, even for a bad team like the Rangers. But the good news here is that they've had NJ's number this year, beating them in both prior head to head matchups. They've scored a total of nine goals in the two wins. This is the Rangers' longest losing streak of the entire season. Note the Devils started the year 4-0 and have lost more than two-thirds of their games since. While a six-game losing streak is bad, the Rangers have played their opponents tough. They've also had to take on a challenging set of opponents. Three of the games came against division leaders Tampa Bay and Washington. One of the two regulation losses was 1-0 at Dallas. Fortunately for the Rangers, they are catching the Devils in an ideal spot. Not only is NJ just 3-8 SU in the second game of a back to back this year, they are an ugly 8-22-3 SU on the road while getting outscored by almost a full goal and a half per game. With a brutal four-game road trip upcoming (three of those games in Western Canada), expect the Rangers to give everything they have to win this game. 7* NY Rangers |
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03-08-19 | Jets v. Hurricanes -160 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
10* Carolina (7:35 ET): The Hurricanes currently occupy one of the two "Wild Card" spots in the Eastern Conference, but they're margin for error is almost non-existent w/ Columbus (who lost last night) just two points back. The 'Canes are definitely one of the hotter teams in the East right now as they are 8-1-1 the L10 games, but they did just lose to the even hotter Bruins (9-0-1 L10) in overtime Tuesday night. Plus, the fact that the top three teams in the Metro are all on win streaks hasn't helped Carolina's cause either. They REALLY need a win here and I think they get it. Winnipeg's future seems a lot more secure than Carolina's right now. All season long, the Jets have been battling the Predators for the top spot in the Central. They enter tonight one point out of first place. But it's not been a great stretch by any means for the contingent from Manitoba as they've lost six of their last nine games, including a humbling 5-2 setback at Tampa Bay on Tuesday. This club is nowhere near as dominant on the road (17-15 SU) as it is at home (22-8-4). Tonight is the third game of a four-game trip, which ends in Washington on Sunday. The Jets have been giving up a lot of shots lately, which could prove problematic against a team like Carolina.  The Hurricanes have earned at least a point in 23 of their last 29 games, including six straight. Before this streak began, there were some key metrics pointing in their favor. No team in the league enjoys a greater advantage in shots on goal as the Canes are +6.6 in shots compared to their opponents on a per game basis. At home, that edge balloons to +7.9. Ironically, they've been scoring more on fewer shot attempts lately. Against Boston, they blew a two-goal lead, so that's a game they probably should have won. The biggest difference for Carolina between this year and past seasons has been the goaltending, which has been much better since the resurgence. 10* Carolina |
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03-07-19 | Avalanche v. Stars -120 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
9* Dallas (8:35 ET): Given the current state of the Wild Card race in the NHL's Western Conference, this game should have a real "serious tone" to it. Dallas, by virtue of three consecutive victories, is in the position that Colorado wishes it was in. That being, holding one of the two WC spot. The Stars' 73 points have them in the top WC position while Minnesota (72 pts) would be the other WC. The Avs (70 pts) are on the outside looking in. In some respects, the Avs are a stronger team than the Stars. But they lack depth and are playing this one on the road. Dallas has double revenge and I think gets the job done tonight. Home ice is big here for Dallas, who is 20-10-2 SU at American Airlines Center. I think it's important to note though that two of the last three wins have come on the road, one against St. Louis. Following that impressive performance (won 4-1), they returned home and shutout the Rangers, 1-0. The Stars' defensive transformation (which started LY) has carried over into 2019 as the club now ranks 3rd in the league in goals allowed per game at 2.58. Coming off a shutout win, the team's record is 4-2 SU this season. While the Stars do often struggle to score, they have scored four goals in three of their last five games. Now Dallas is 0-2 vs. the Avalanche this season, but both games were played in Denver. Both were also played before the start of the new year (2019) when the Avs were looking a lot stronger. Since they last beat the Stars (on 12.15), the Avs have gone 11-17-6 SU overall. They did just win Tuesday, 4-2, but that was at home against a bad Detroit team. Off a game where it scored 4+ goals, Colorado is just 9-18 SU this season. Yes, they have the tremendous top line of MacKinnon-Landeskog-Rantanen. But beyond that, there just isn't much to like here. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the league and should keep that line in check. 9* Dallas |
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03-07-19 | Blue Jackets v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jackets/Penguins (7:05 ET): These Metropolitan Division rivals just met last week w/ the Penguins winning 5-2 in Columbus. They're about to get quite acquainted w/ one another as tonight is the front end of a home and home. There's a history of high-scoring games here as not only did that last meeting go Over, so too have five of the last six meetings. The Pens certainly have had no trouble scoring on the Blue Jackets during that time, tallying at least four goals in all six meetings. (They scored at least five goals five times). No slouch in scoring themselves, C-bus is 20-11 Over in all road games this season. Surprisingly though, the Blue Jackets have been held to just four goals over their last three games. This is a really critical time for the club as they are trying to lock down at least a Wild Card. They just won in New Jersey, which was hardly emphatic as they needed a shootout in a game they were outshot 30-18. But I was happy as I took 'em. The win left the Blue Jackets two points back of the Wild Card, one of those spots being held by Pittsburgh. You'd like to think we'll see more offense from them here. The Over is 10-4 following the last 14 times the team was held to two goals or fewer in its previous game. Pittsburgh also needed extra time to get the two points in its last game. They beat Florida 3-2 to stay two points up in Columbus in the standings. The Pens are 5th in the league in goals per game (3.45) and given their past success when it comes to scoring against the Blue Jackets, I fully anticipate they'll score more than their "fair share" this evening. The Over has cashed in their last four division games and is 5-1 their last six games as a favorite. Over its last 12 games, Pittsburgh has been held under three goals just once and has scored at least four goals seven times. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Penguins |
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03-06-19 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Under Blues/Ducks (10:05 ET): A matchup involving the league's lowest scoring team seems pretty conducive to an Under, right? The fact that Anaheim has scored the fewest number of goals in the league has resulted in them having the worst goal differential (-57) as well. This even after winning B2B games, including a 3-1 victory last night in Arizona. Tonight is a tough assignment though as the Blues have had three days off compared to none for the Ducks. St. Louis was the hottest team in the league before dropping four of its last six games. Take the Under here. When it ripped off a franchise record 11 consecutive victories last month, St. Louis delivered four shutouts, including three in a row. But they've predictably started to regress on the goals allowed side of the ledger, giving up nine in the last two games alone. Rookie Jordan Binnington was in many ways the catalyst for the Blues' second-half surge, but he gave up three goals on just 20 shots to Dallas on Saturday. He's expected to be back between the pipes tonight and I'll stay confident in him given his 15-3-1 record in 19 starts, 1.68 GAA and .933 save percentage. Whether it's Binnington or Jake Allen in goal here for St. Louis, stopping Anaheim from scoring should not prove difficult. Over the last seven games, the Ducks have managed to scored only 10 goals, half of those coming in the L2 games. They've been shutout twice. The Under is 3-0 for the Ducks this month and 7-1 this season when playing the second night of a back to back. Even better is the fact they are 9-0 Under this season when coming off a win by two or more goals. Throw in the fact St. Louis is averaging just 1.6 gpg its last five games and you have a clear play on the Under here. 10* Under Blues/Ducks |
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03-05-19 | Blue Jackets -205 v. Devils | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
6* Columbus (7:05 ET): This is a battle between one of the five teams in the Metro battling for a playoff spot and the team that has spent the majority of the year in last place in the division. Columbus has fallen into fifth place and right now would NOT be a Wild Card team as they trail both the Pens and the Canadiens (over in the Atlantic) by two points. Thus a win tonight is paramount. As you can tell by the ML, winning tonight shouldn't be too hard. The Devils have not only lost three straight overall, they have lost each of the last five times hosting the Blue Jackets. Now C-bus comes into this game off B2B losses as well. They weren't exactly competitive in either loss, losing 4-0 to Edmonton and 5-2 to Winnipeg. Both of those games were on home ice too! But the Blue Jackets have been a surprisingly good road team this year w/ a 19-10-1 record away from home. Only three teams in the entire league have better win percentages away from home - Tampa Bay, Toronto and Calgary. One could make the case that those are the three best teams in the league. Note that Columbus has had only one losing streak of three or more games all season. New Jersey has had plenty of losing streaks this season and the current one has seen them tally only four goals in three games. They got shutout in Boston Saturday, losing 1-0, while being held to only 20 shots. There just aren't a whole lot of positives to report w/ this club right now and they haven't fared well against the Blue Jackets in three meetings this season, losing all of them by a combined score 9-2. Two were in Ohio, but as mentioned before, they've dropped five in a row when hosting the Blue Jackets. They've dropped 9 of the previous 11 meetings overall. 6* Columbus |
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03-04-19 | Maple Leafs v. Flames OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Over Maple Leafs/Flames (9:05 ET): Two of the league's best collide tonight in Alberta where the Western Conference leading Flames play host to the Maple Leafs. Toronto has almost no shot of catching Tampa Bay for the division lead over in the Atlantic, but really needs to focus on finishing second as that would give them home ice advantage for what appears to be an inevitable 1st round playoff series w/ Boston. Winning tonight will NOT come easy given Calgary has gone 20-6-5 SU here on home ice this season. But what should be a pretty easy proposition is this game finishing Over the total. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the league. Calgary saw its seven game win streak come to an end Saturday when they suffered a rare home loss to Minnesota. They gave up four goals in that contest, equaling the number they allowed in the previous four games combined. They themselves have not topped three goals in any of their last five games. Thus, the Under is 4-0-1 w/ the push coming in Saturday's loss to the Wild. But I expect the Flames to break out of that mini scoring "slump" tonight. After all, they are a top four team in the league in goals per game and no team has scored more times in home games (4.1 per game) this season. Toronto ranks just ahead of Calgary in overall scoring (3.58 gpg) at third overall. The Over has cashed in each of their last five games and in their case, it's been them doing most of the scoring. They've won four of those five games and scored at least five goals in every win. The one loss was by a score of 6-1 to the Islanders. Every Maple Leafs game during this stretch has seen at least seven total goals scored. The Over is 6-1 the L7 times Toronto has been coming off a game where they scored at least five goals. They just beat Buffalo 5-2 on Saturday. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Flames |
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03-03-19 | Capitals -155 v. Rangers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
8* Washington (12:35 ET): The Capitals enter the day in a first place tie w/ the Islanders for first place in the Metro. The Isles will play later in the afternoon (host Philly), so getting two points here is a necessity for the team from the Nation's Capital. The Metro has developed into quite the tight race, but the Caps have definitely stepped up recently w/ three consecutive wins. The latest was against the Islanders (at home) Friday and the first of the three was against today's opponent, New York's "other team." The Rangers have lost three in a row in what continues to be a lost season for them. In their three straight losses, NY has given up 14 goals. This is not a good team nor was it expected to be coming into what was generally regarded as a "rebuilding" season. The irony is things could be even worse were it not for a league-leading six shootout victories. But a little further irony here is that extra time has not been kind to the Blueshirts when facing Washington. They have not beaten the Capitals since December of 2017, losing five straight times to their division rivals w/ three of those defeats coming in OT. Overall, they are 0-6-1 vs. the Capitals in the last seven meetings. Alex Ovechkin's eight-game point streak is what's grabbing the headlines in D.C., but really the Caps are getting contributions from just about everyone. Their last 16 goals have come from 11 different players. Overall, the team is 10-4-1 its L15 games as it seems to have fully recovered from a seven-game skid in late January. They are the sixth highest scoring team in the league right now. They tallied six goals in the OT win over the Rangers exactly one week ago and quite frankly the Rangers were lucky to earn a point as they trailed by two goals in the third period and didn't get the equalizer until the final minute of regulation. 8* Washington |
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03-02-19 | Senators v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* Over Senators/Lightning (7:05 ET): It may sound a little crazy, but Tampa Bay is more than capable of sending this game Over by itself. The league-leading Lightning (102 points) also lead the league in goals scored with 253 and are facing an Ottawa team that just fired its HC and also has given up the most goals in the league. Thus it's not really a surprise that we have the highest money line for a single game all season. The number of goals allowed by the Senators on the road is really frightening and thus this one could get ugly in a hurry. A play on the Lightning obviously has little value, but a play on the Over sure does. The fact Tampa Bay is off a loss does Ottawa no favors here either. The Lightning were beaten 4-1 up in Boston Thursday night, their 1st loss since February 7th. In between those two losses, they won 10 in a row, scoring at least four goals in eight of those games. TB averages 4.2 goals per game at home and facing a team that gives up 4.5 per game on the road, they should have little difficulty exceeding that average tonight. Not only does Ottawa give up the most goals per game in the league, they also permit the most shots. The Lightning are going to have plenty of opportunities to score in this one. The Sens come into tonight as losers of six straight, which is why Guy Boucher was shown the door. In those six games, they were outscored 28-12 w/ seven of those goals scored coming in one game. If they can score a few times here, it would be the icing on the cake. Note that each of the previous six meetings have gone Over and the last one actually saw Ottawa win 6-4 here in TB! All six games saw at least seven total goals scored. The Lightning did allow 41 shots on goal in Thursday's loss to the Bruins. 10* Over Senators/Lightning |
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02-26-19 | Penguins v. Blue Jackets -140 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
9* Columbus (7:05 ET): While the top three in Atlantic (Tampa Bay-Toronto-Boston) appear pretty much set, the playoff picture over in the Metro is a lot murkier. Five teams are separated by just seven points and three are within one point of each other w/ the possibility of one of the three getting left out of the playoffs due to Montreal's viability for the Wild Card over in the Atlantic. Two of the three teams fighting to get in the top three in the Metro meet tonight in Columbus. This is a very big game w/ Pittsburgh coming to town and I'm siding w/ the home team due to both recent form and the revenge factor. The Blue Jackets do currently hold the third place position in the Metro, but both the Penguins and Hurricanes are just a point behind. The Jackets' last two games have gone extraordinarily well as they shut out both Ottawa and San Jose, winning by a combined 7-0 margin. This was a busy team at the trade deadline and it's feeling pretty good about itself. They do have some poor history vs. the Penguins to overcome here, however. They've lost 11 of the last 14 meetings w/ the Pens, including five straight losses. Only one of those games was played this season, however, and it was in Pittsburgh. With this being the first of three head to head meetings in the next 12 days, it's imperative that Columbus strikes first. Pittsburgh was also a busy team at the trade deadline, but their moves were almost out of necessity as they are quite thin along the blue line. It's shown the last two games, both of which have been losses. First they were shutout (at home) by the same San Jose team that the Blue Jackets just shutout. Then they blew a two-goal lead late in the third period Saturday and lost in overtime to Philly, outdoors. The real key here may be the recent form of Blue Jackets' goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a .958 save percentage his L4 starts, which includes the two aforementioned shutouts. 9* Columbus |
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02-25-19 | Panthers v. Avalanche -140 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
8* Colorado (9:05 ET): What a turnaround we've seen recently by the Avalanche. After an absolutely horrible two-month stretch which saw the team lose 19 out of 23 games, the Avs have now won four in a row, two by shutout. That has them fifth in the Central and back in position for the final Wild Card spot. A win tonight would tie them w/ Dallas for fourth in the division. At home, against a poor Florida club, I think the Avs get the two points. The Panthers are in off an easy 6-1 win over a bad Kings team, thus they could be coming in a bit overconfident. The Avalanche are of course led by their incredible top line of Landeskog-Rantanen-MacKinnon. It's as good a line as you'll find anywhere in this league, but depth is a concern in Denver and that's what cost them. That said, the Avs have managed to score 17 goals in the last three games alone, which is enough to beat anybody. Especially considering the way goaltender Semyon Varlamov has played recently. Varlamov was NOT between the pipes for the team's 5-0 blanking of Nashville Saturday night, but he does own a ridiculous .958 save percentage his L4 starts. Varlamov has been just as big a reason for the turnaround as has the top line. Florida has played better of late, not only dominating the Kings on Saturday, but also winning four of their last five. They too have had the "scoring touch," averaging 4.2 goals in those five games. But note all five of those games took place on home ice. This will be just the second time the Panthers have played a road game in the month of February. Goaltending also remains a concern as they rank 27th in the league in goals allowed. Back in December, they lost to Colorado by a score of 5-2. A similar result is likely in store for them tonight. 8* Colorado |
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02-24-19 | Stars v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10* Under Stars/Blackhawks (3:05 ET): Chicago has gone Over in 11 straight games and 18 of its last 20. That's quite the streak. I've taken the Over in several of those games, but today they have an opponent that's conducive to things finally going the "other way" (i.e. Under). Dallas is 14-4 Under its last 18 games as they have built a reputation for having some of the lowest scoring games in the league. Unfortunately for the Stars, that includes them getting shutout three times in the last five games. Something's gotta give here and I think this will be more of a "Dallas game" Sunday. Take the Under. The Stars got shutout again last night, losing 3-0 to Carolina. They managed only 24 shots on goal in that game, so they didn't exactly make it tough on the Hurricanes. That game was also on home ice, a bad sign considering they typically average about a full goal per game more at home than on the road. On the road, they are averaging just 2.0 goals per game. That's the second lowest average in the league. But if there's one "saving grace" here for the Stars it's that they rank third in the league in goals allowed, giving up just 2.6 per game. Chicago is also off a loss, though there's was a higher scoring affair. They fell 5-3 to Colorado on Friday, here at home. You've got to tip your cap to the Blackhawks for not "folding their tent" despite spending much of the season in last place in the Central Division. But there's just no way they can maintain their recent scoring average, which is 4.6 goals per over the L5 games. Now I realize that the club also has the highest goals per game allowed average in the league. But Dallas won't test them as much as the majority of their recent opponents. Note the Stars are 7-1 Under this season when playing in the second night of back to back days. 10* Under Stars/Blackhawks |
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02-23-19 | Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Bruins/Blues (4:05 ET): These are two of the hottest teams in the league right now, so this sets up as a competitive game. St. Louis did just lose for the first time in 12 games as their franchise record win streak was snapped on Thursday. So, Boston is technically the hotter team here as they come in having won seven straight. Each of the last four wins came out West as they swept the three California teams then won a shootout in Vegas. Given the competitive nature this game is likely to have, I see it staying Under the total w/ very few goals being scored. The Blues' season began its dramatic turn when rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington was thrust between the pipes. Granted, Binnington was not at his best Thursday in Dallas as he allowed four goals on just 24 shots. But prior to that, he'd posted a .937 save percentage and 1.61 goals against average in 15 starts all while going 13-1-1. What's really helped Binnington is the St. Louis defense not allowing their opponents to get many shots off. Since interim HC Craig Berube took over behind the bench, the team is allowing an average of just 28 shots per game, which is one of the better marks in the league. Even in defeat Thursday night, they allowed just 24 to the Stars. Boston is #2 in the league in goals allowed, so they're a stingy group too. In the seven-game win streak, they've allowed just 17 goals. That's not an awe-inspiring number by any means as it's been the offense doing a lot of the heavy lifting. But here they'll be facing a Blues team that allowed a total of just 16 goals in its historic 11-game win streak, including four shutouts. The Bruins are still w/o winger David Pastranak, keep in mind. When these teams met in Boston last month, the final score was 5-2 (in favor of the home team), but that was a much different Blues club than the one we're getting now. The Under is 14-8-1 in St. Louis' last 23 games. 10* Under Bruins/Blues |
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02-22-19 | Jets v. Golden Knights -140 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Two teams that are reeling face off tonight in Las Vegas w/ the Golden Knights looking to rebound from a shootout loss to the Bruins and the Jets desperate to end a three-game slide. That loss to the Bruins occurred here at home, which was actually the fourth time in five tries that the Golden Knights have tasted defeat at their own rink. We're certainly unaccustomed to seeing that as dating back to last season, the franchise's first in existence, they have established one of the strongest home ice advantages in the entire league. Winnipeg may be in more dire straits as they've lost three in a row, including two blowouts at the hands of Colorado. It's not like the Avalanche have been playing well either; before sweeping the home and home w/ the Jets, the Avs had dropped EIGHT in a row! In between the two losses to the Avs, the Jets lost a game to lowly Ottawa, at home. Winnipeg has now dropped six of eight overall and that includes two losses to Ottawa. In their last five losses, the Jets have given up 25 goals. This isn't what I expect from one of the top teams in the Western Conference, but it's also the facts. Another fact is they've never won here in Vegas in three tries. This is just the second time this season that Winnipeg has lost three in a row. They won the previous time in this spot, which was at Buffalo 12 days ago. I don't see it happening here though as Vegas is a place they've never won at and the Golden Knights don't lose here very often, period. The Jets have been outscored on the road this season while Vegas only allows 2.5 goals per game at home, which is one of the better averages in the league. Something has to give tonight as either Winnipeg will avoid a season high in losses or Vegas will lose for the 7th time in their last 8 home games. The latter just seems less likely to me. 8* Vegas |
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02-21-19 | Blues v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Blues/Stars (8:35 ET): The hottest in the team in the league right now resides in St. Louis as the Blues have won a franchise record 11 straight and generally speaking, they have been dominant in doing so, outscoring the opposition 43-16. Incredibly, they were close to pulling off a fourth straight shutout Tuesday vs. Toronto before giving up two third period goals. They still won obviously, in overtime. I wouldn't bet against this Blues team right now, but Dallas can be stingy, despite what we've seen from them recently. I'm on the Under here. The Stars had actually been shutout themselves in two straight games going into Tuesday. But three goals were NOT enough to overcome Nashville here at home. It was just the fifth time this season that Dallas lost a game in which it scored three or more times (21-4-1). But despite recent form, Dallas still ranks third in the league in goals allowed (2.61 per game). Their problem is clearly on offense where they rank 29th at 2.51 goals per game. Thus, they have generally been a "boon" for Under bettors w/ a 35-17-5 mark in all games. The Nashville game marked just the second Over for them in the last 18 games! St. Louis has gone Under in each of its last four games and the Under is 19-8-2 on the road for them. Obviously, it's been quite difficult to score on this team. Before the third period vs. Toronto Tuesday night, they'd gone 11 straight periods w/o giving up a goal. Much of that is owed to the remarkable play of rookie netminder Jordan Binnington, who is now 13-1-1 in all starts w/ a 1.61 GAA and .937 save percentage. Looking at the Stars' season as a whole coupled w/ the Blues recent play, I think it's quite reasonable to expect tonight to be a low-scoring affair. 8* Under Blues/Stars |
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02-21-19 | Kings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Under Kings/Predators (8:05 ET): Two teams at the opposite end of the Western Conference spectrum face off tonight in Music City. The Predators have a golden opportunity here to pass the Jets (who lost last night) and climb back into first place in the Central Division. The Preds have hardly played well of late (2-3-1 L6 games), but a 5-3 win at Dallas on Tuesday was definitely a step in the right direction. Tonight should be an easy two points, but the money line really doesn't allow for a play on the side. The Under is a better call anyway as this should be a low-scoring game. The Kings are not a good team. They've been residing at the bottom of the Pacific Division most of the year and their 52 points are a Western Conference low. They've been outscored by 39 goals, which is the second worst differential in the entire league. They are particularly weak on the goal scoring side of the ledger where they rank 30th (next to last) at just 2.39 per game. Strangely though, it's not been goal scoring that has hurt the team during the current five-game losing streak. They've actually scored 15 goals during that time. But they've also given up 22. I don't see the Kings scoring three times tonight as Nashville is a top four team in goals allowed and #2 when factoring in only home games. Furthermore, the Kings' scoring average drops slightly on the road. The only prior meeting this season was played here in Nashville and saw the Preds win 5-3. But that was three months ago. Before busting loose for five goals in Dallas Tuesday, the Preds had totaled just six goals in their previous three games combined. 8* Under Kings/Predators |
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02-21-19 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs -164 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): This is a really big game for the Maple Leafs, who have fallen into third place in the Atlantic. Look for it to be a battle w/ Boston the rest of the way for 2nd place, which is of course key considering whomever finishes 2nd will have home ice advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs. The task ahead of the Leafs was made a little tougher last night when Boston won in Vegas. They now trail the red-hot Bruins (who are 9-0-1 L10 games) by four points. That makes tonight a virtual "must win." Coming off B2B losses, I think they get the job done. Over in the Metro, Washington finds itself also jockeying for playoff positioning. Unlike Toronto, finishing first in the division is still in play for the Caps. They enter the day three points behind the first place Islanders, but this is a somewhat challenging spot from a scheduling perspective. The team is playing its fifth straight road game and the last three all came out on the West Coast. Granted, they've had two days off, but that scenario finds them at only 4-4 SU for the year. Toronto just wrapped up its own long road trip (six games) and will be quite happy to be back on home ice. This is the third meeting of the season between the two clubs. Toronto has taken the first two, rather convincingly, 4-2 and 6-3. While both teams are in the top 10 in scoring, the Maple Leafs look to have a substantial edge defensively. Washington is in the bottom third in goals allowed (22nd ) while Toronto is a solid 9th. Not many teams in this league rank in the top 10 in both goals scored and allowed. There was no shame in their last loss as it came against the hottest team in the league (St. Louis) and they still earned a point. The Capitals have posted B2B wins only one time over the last month and that came in a pair of home games, both of which were against lesser opponents. 8* Toronto |
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02-20-19 | Bruins v. Golden Knights -120 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
10* Vegas (10:05 ET): The Golden Knights' extraordinary home ice advantage will be tested this evening by a Bruins team that's riding a six-game win streak. While not quite as strong as they were here last year, Vegas is still 17-9-3 SU here in Sin City and this looks like a bad spot for Boston considering it will be their fourth straight road game in a six-day span. The Bruins admittedly did just win at San Jose, another team that rarely loses at home. But they needed OT after blowing a 3-0 lead in that game, which also saw them get outshot 38-20. The "Vegas Flu" claims another victim tonight! With the six-game win streak, Boston has now passed Toronto for second place in the Atlantic, which is important because it means they would host the Maple Leafs (or whomever else finishes 3rd in the division) in the 1st round of the playoffs. Personally, I believe Toronto is the better team, but let's table that discussion for another time. What we do know about the Bruins is that they were just 11-10-5 SU on the road prior to the start of this trip. They average just 2.5 goals per game outside of Beantown and Vegas remains one of the stingier teams in the league at home, giving up only 2.4 gpg. That's 3rd fewest in the league. (Boston ranks 28th in scoring on the road). The home team is 3-0 all-time when these teams meet. Boston won 4-1 back in November at a time when the Golden Knights were struggling. It's not like they're playing a whole lot better now (lost 4 of 5), but after being shutout in their last game (3-0 at Colorado), I expect a strong bounce back tonight. After scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game, Vegas is 9-2 SU the next time out. They did have 40 shots on goal vs. the Avs Monday, but just couldn't get any past Semyon Varlamov. Boston is pretty strong between the pipes in its own right, but I see them being under siege here by a Vegas team that is averaging 37.8 shots on goal its L5 games. 10* Vegas |
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02-19-19 | Predators v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* Under Predators/Stars (8:35 ET): To classify Dallas as an "Under team" is the equivalent of calling the Golden State Warriors "good at basketball." Well, maybe the former assertion is less known, but it certainly is no less true. I've previously discussed the somewhat "radical transformation" this Stars team has undergone. It actually started LY when they jumped from 29th (ahead of only a historically bad Colorado team) in the league for goals allowed (2016-17) to 6th. This year, they've taken a step further and rank 3rd. Thus, the Under is now 35-16-7 in all of their games. Unfortunately for the Stars, scoring matters too. They've failed to score even a single goal in the last two games, getting shutout by both Tampa Bay (6-0!) and Carolina (3-0). For the year, they are now 29th (third worst) in the league in goals per game. So, you can see how this club has been such a boon for Under bettors. Even O/U lines of 5.5, which used to be standard (but not so much anymore) haven't prevented the Unders from rolling in. The Under is 7-1-1 their last nine games with four of those seeing either them or the opponent get shutout. Tonight, Dallas hosts Nashville. This is the third time these teams have met this month. The previous two, predictably, both stayed Under. Both games took place in Nashville w/ the Preds winning the last one (3-1) after losing the initial battle, 3-2. Nashville has seen 7 of its last 10 games go Under, but not the last one as they gave up five goals in Vegas. I don't see them giving up that many here as they rank 4th (right behind Dallas) in goals allowed per game. This is basically the opposite of yesterday's Over play on Ottawa-Chicago, the two teams that give up the most goals per game in the league. Expect this to be a real low-scoring affair. 8* Under Predators/Stars |
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02-19-19 | Penguins -155 v. Devils | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): One of the strangest things in the NHL has to be the Devils seeming "mastery" of the Penguins. It's not like these teams could even be considered remotely equal. Over both the short-term (this season) and the last several seasons, the Pens have been the better team. Yet, New Jersey has still found a way to win six of the seven meetings (6-0-1) including all three this season where they've outscored Pittsburgh 15-6. I'd like to point out that the Devils have basically been in last place in the Metro all season and currently have only 54 points to their name. I see Pittsburgh breaking through tonight. Right now, they really need two points. They find themselves tied w/ Columbus for third in the Metro and are just one point up on hard-charging Carolina. As things stand now, the Pens would be a Wild Card entrant in the playoffs, but that position is precarious at best. I do see them as better than their current spot though, given they have a top five goal differential in the Eastern Conference. They've certainly had little difficulty scoring of late as they are averaging more than four goals per over the last five games. They scored six in a win over the Rangers Sunday. New Jersey comes into tonight off B2B wins. This may not seem like a monumental feat, but for them it's just the third time doing so since starting the season 4-0. Their only win streak of more than two games took place in late December. This is the first time they've posted consecutive wins since mid-January. One of them saw the Devils rally from a three-goal deficit in Minnesota, a game where they were huge underdogs (closed +240) on the ML. I just can't see them winning again, let alone another time against a Penguins team that is clearly superior. 8* Pittsburgh |
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02-18-19 | Senators v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Senators/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): These two teams are tied for the most goals allowed per game in the league, which is quite the dubious distinction. Therefore, it's no shock to see a high total for this game. But it's still not high enough. Ottawa is really "generous" when they're the road team, giving up a whopping 4.25 goals per game. Chicago has seen its last eight games all go Over the total and this one should be no different. Take the Over. So Ottawa is actually off a rare win here and a shocking one at that as they won in Winnipeg on Saturday, 4-3 (in OT). That was obviously an Over as the Senators were able to pepper the Jets w/ 41 shots on goal. Incredibly, they were still able to win despite giving up TWO short-handed goals in the first period. Like I said, the Sens are no stranger to giving up their fair share of goals as they've allowed a total of 10 in just the past three games. In addition to being tied w/ Chicago for the most goals per game allowed, Ottawa also allows the most shots per game (36.3). The Blackhawks aren't too far behind in the shots allowed department, giving up 35.3 per game. That's the second highest number in the league. Lately, Chicago has been giving up a ton of shots on goal w/ the L5 opponents averaging nearly 40 per game. Columbus won here in the Windy City, 5-2, on Saturday night. That marked the 8th consecutive Blackhawks game w/ at least seven total goals scored. They had 41 shots on goal themselves vs. the Blue Jackets. This has all the makings of a real high-scoring affair. 10* Over Senators/Blackhawks |
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02-17-19 | Sabres -105 v. Devils | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (6:05 ET): The Sabres were the talk of the league for awhile as they won 10 straight games back in November. But as I said in my analysis Friday, they've been nothing but mediocre otherwise. Take that one win streaak away and they're just 18-22-7 SU overall. Now I was still able to punch a winning ticket in their last game as I had the Over in a 6-2 loss to the Rangers. Note that had been a competitive game before a late barrage from the Rangers, who scored three times in the final four minutes. Desperation is really starting to grow for Buffalo as they are fifth in the Atlantic and five points out of the Wild Card. Fortunately for tonight, they find themselves in New Jersey where they'll take on the last place Devils. This is a critical two points for the Sabres and I think they grab them. I think it helps Buffalo here that NJ is off a win. As you might guess is the case w/ a last place team, the Devils don't win B2B games very often. Since starting the year 4-0, they have put together just three win streaks, two of them just the two game variety. It was a 5-4 win in Minnesota Friday, a game which went to overtime after the Devils rallied from a three-goal deficit. They trailed by two midway into the third period and didn't get the equalizer until only 2:45 was left in regulation. The Devils have still given up 17 goals the L3 games and are 9-20 SU after giving up 4+ in the last game. This isn't a good team and they lost 5-1 the last time they faced the Sabres. Of course, it hasn't helped the Devils' cause that they have been w/o MVP Taylor Hall. Goaltending has also been a real issue no matter who is between the pipes. Friday was Corey Schnieder's first win in 14 months! It's unclear who will get the start tonight, but none of the options are great. Buffalo has won three straight times off a SU loss and they are 10-4 SU this season following a loss by two or more goals. This is a really good price to go against a bad team like New Jersey. 10* Buffalo |
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02-16-19 | Flames v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Flames/Penguins (1:05 ET): As I've stated previously, it certainly appears as if the All-Star Break came at the wrong time for Calgary. They were the hottest team going in, but have lost five of six (including four straight) coming out. Thursday night was a bitter result for me as I had them only to watch as they went down 3-2 in overtime at Florida. A significant issue since the Break has been the number of goals allowed. They've given up a total of 25 in the six games and now they face the Penguins, who are a top five team in the league in scoring. I look for this game to go Over. Of course, Calgary is no slouch offensively either as they are third in the league in scoring. Before the loss to Florida on Thursday, the Flames' last five games had all gone Over the total. Thus, it's no surprise that we have a high total here, but the reality is the oddsmakers probably can't set it high enough. An issue I saw w/ the Flames in the first half is that the level of play they were getting between the pipes was probably unsustainable. Sure enough, Dave Rittich (who had been carrying them in the 1H) has an .853 save percentage his L4 starts. Pittsburgh averages 3.5 goals per game at home, so we're gonna see plenty of scoring from both sides this afternoon. The Pens have won their last two games, giving up just one goal in both, but those were against Philadelphia and Edmonton, who are both in the bottom third of the league in scoring. The Over is 15-3 in Calgary's last 18 games overall. The Over is 5-2 in the last seven head to head meetings as well, including a stunning 9-1 result from earlier this year that was in Pittsburgh's favor. That game took place very early in the season (Oct 25th) and while things won't that one-sided this go around, they very well should be as high scoring. 8* Over Flames/Penguins |
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02-15-19 | Rangers v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
10* Over Rangers/Sabres (7:05 ET): The Blueshirts travel from the city to upstate NY on Friday for this post-Valentines Day date w/ the Sabres. We've been through this before, but the Rangers aren't good (nor were they expected to be) as they are one of six Eastern Conference teams that have little hope of making the postseason. As for Buffalo, they're hoping for at least a Wild Card, but find themselves currently six points back in that race. The reality is that outside of that 10-game win streak (back in November), they too have been a below average club, one that is 18-21-7 otherwise. The Sabres' last three games have all ended w/ an identical 3-1 score. They've won two of them, including their last time out on the ice, which was against the Islanders. That was here at home and a pretty impressive win, all things considered. They limited the Isles to just 25 shots, making it three straight games w/o allowing more than 30. But this seven-game homestand (which ends tonight) certainly got off to a dicey start defensively w/ them allowing 17 goals on 105 shots in the first three games. I think that's more representative of the kind of play we'll see here. The Rangers don't seem to pose much of a threat offensively as they rank 27th in the league in goals per game. But they are off a 4-3 loss in Winnipeg, which was actually the fourth time in five games they scored at least three goals. Given that they've won only two of those games, defense is obviously an issue for them as well. They've allowed three or more goals in six of their last seven contests. Goaltending could be an issue for both sides, especially the Rangers as likely starter Georgiev has an .882 save percentage on the road. Buffalo has gone Over in 11 of its last 16 games overall. 10* Over Rangers/Sabres |
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02-14-19 | Flames -135 v. Panthers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* Calgary (7:05 ET): It appears as if the All-Star Break may have killed the Flames "momentum." They went into the Break as arguably the hottest team in the league, winning 8 of their last 9 games, the lone loss coming in OT. But they've come out by losing four of five, including three straight. I played against them Tuesday in Tampa Bay, which was a 6-3 loss. They've now dropped out of the top spot in the Pacific Division (and Western Conference), ceding that position to San Jose. But this is still a top tier team and I see them getting back on track tonight in Florida. The Panthers also recently lost to Tampa Bay, only their defeat came on home ice (5-2). That was followed w/ another home loss, this one coming in shutout fashion at the hands of the Stars (3-0). Florida in all likelihood will NOT be going to the postseason this year as they only have 54 points and face a large deficit even to get into Wild Card contention. Last month in Calgary, they lost to the Flames 4-3. The money line for that game had Calgary north of -200, so by comparison this is a strong value on them. The Flames have won 10 of their last 14 visits to Miami. The Panthers had actually yet to be shutout in any game this year before Tuesday. They were the only team in the league not to have been shutout at least once. I wouldn't count on them getting back on track offensively tonight as Calgary is #3 in the league in goals allowed on the road. They are also the third highest scoring team in the league overall. So they're the far more likely candidate to bounce back in a battle of slumping teams Thursday. This is just the third time this season that the Flames have been on a three-game losing streak. In each of the previous two instances, they won the next time out. 10* Calgary |
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02-12-19 | Flames v. Lightning -155 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Stanley Cup Finals preview? It might be as the Lightning and Flames lead their respective conferences in points (as of this writing). For the record, Calgary could find itself in second place in its own division by game time, depending on what happens w/ San Jose Monday night. Irregardless of that, I don't like the Flames chances Tuesday night. Tampa Bay is a ridiculously strong team on home ice w/ a 21-5-2 SU record here. They are the better team and this is a fair price. Calgary has lost two straight and three of four since the All-Star Break. The Lightning had their own two game losing streak post-Break and both losses came at home. They were to Vegas and St. Louis. For what it's worth, those losses both came past regulation. The most surprising thing about them is that the Lightning scored only two goals in them. But they've since bounce back w/ a pair of wins, scoring five goals each time. The most recent win came in Florida, 5-2, on Sunday. That on the heels of avenging a prior loss against the Penguins. Let it be known that TB is the only team in the league that averages a higher number of goals per game than Calgary. Since the Break, the Flames have given up 16 goals in four games. After losing at home to San Jose last week, 5-2, they lost in a shootout to Vancouver Saturday night. Considering they outshot the Canucks 47-25, that's a game they should have won. But they didn't. Tampa beat them in Calgary back in December, 5-4 (in a shootout), so they should be able to win here at home too. I think it's fair to wonder if Flames goalie Dave Rittich will be able to continue his extraordinary play moving forward. 8* Tampa Bay |
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02-11-19 | Sharks -152 v. Canucks | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
8* San Jose (10:05 ET): The Sharks have won five in a row and can make it a clean sweep through Western Canada w/ a win tonight in Vancouver. Through the years, San Jose has certainly had the number of this Pacific Division rival, beating the Canucks four straight times and 9 out of the last 10. They've met only one time this season and that was back in November w/ SJ turning in a 4-0 shutout at home as massive -295 ML favorites. I look for San Jose to keep rolling here. Shockingly, the Canucks have managed to stay in playoff contention into February, even beating 1st place Calgary (in a shootout) Saturday night. That win snapped a three-game losing streak. I might be a little biased seeing as I was on the Flames, but Vancouver really had no business winning Sat night given that they were outshot 47-25. They now are just two points back of the Wild Card, but as I said in my previous analysis, this team was expected to be a bottom-feeder at the start of the season. I'm not convinced they're a legit contender yet. Vancouver beating Calgary helped San Jose as the Sharks are now just one point back of the Flames for 1st in the Pacific. The Sharks also hold a recent win over the Flames, theirs coming in Calgary though by a score of 5-2. Before that, they'd won three straight overtime games. But it was domination in Alberta, not just against the Flames, but also in Edmonton on Saturday as they again won 5-2, this time led by Kevin Labanc's 1st career hat trick. San Jose is now third in the league in scoring (3.63 gpg) and simply a much better team than Vancouver, who is only 1-5 the L6 times they've been off a win. 8* San Jose |
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02-10-19 | Avalanche v. Bruins -183 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
6* Boston (3:05 ET): Both teams played Saturday. For Colorado, the result was an all-too familiar one as they lost 4-3 (in overtime) to the Islanders. It was their sixth loss in a row overall. Earlier in the season, it was looking as if the Avs' top line of Rantanen-Landeskog-MacKinnon would be enough to carry this team into the playoffs for a second straight year. But now they find themselves second from the bottom in the Central, only one point ahead of the lowly Blackhawks. The Bruins were 5-4 winners (in OT) yday as they beat the Kings. It was Boston's third win in the last four games and it should be noted that in the one loss, they blew a 3-1 third period lead. To me, the B's remain a pretty safe bet to get back to the playoffs, but right now they'd have to settle for being a Wild Card w/ 68 points. The good news though is that they are only one point back of third place (Montreal) in the Atlantic and three back of second place (Toronto). Colorado's lack of depth has come back to bite them and the bottom line is that no matter how talented the top line is, the team isn't going to win much when it's giving up four or more goals in every game. I realize the last two losses both came in OT, but they've still allowed 4+ goals every time during the six-game slide. Boston, meanwhile, is top three in the league in goals allowed per game. I don't think an afternoon game, on the road, is where Colorado "figures things out." It's not only the second game of a back to back, but also their third road game in four days. The Bruins are simply the better team here and priced appropriately. 6* Boston |
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02-09-19 | Flames -155 v. Canucks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -155 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
8* Calgary (10:05 ET): Perhaps there's an argument to be made that the All-Star Break came at the WRONG time for the Flames. Pardon the pun, but they went into the Break as one of the league's hottest teams with an 8-0-1 record their last nine games. Since the Break, they've dropped two of three, including a rare poor effort at home Thursday where they gave up five goals to San Jose. But I still consider Calgary to be one of the league's best teams as only Tampa Bay has more points and a better goal differential. Tonight they'll travel to Vancouver to face a slumping Canucks side and should get the 'W.'Â Vancouver has not played at home since the All-Star Break and last won a home game on 1/20. A four-game road trip is how they started the second half of the season. After beating Colorado 5-1 on February 2nd, they then dropped three in a row - all one goal decisions. The most recent was a 4-3 loss at Chicago Thursday night. Given the Canucks are very much alive for one of the Western Conference's two Wild Card spots, that stretch really hurt. But I think it's important to remember just where this club was expected to finish. Preseason projections had them near the bottom of the league, so don't be shocked if they start to tumble down the standings. As for Calgary, this is a revenge spot as they lost at home to the Canucks back on 12/29, 3-2. They have dropped two of three to the Canucks this season, but all three games took place before the New Year. The Flames are a substantially better team now than they were back then and while they don't score as many goals on the road as the do at home, they happen to lead the entire NHL in goals ALLOWED on the road, giving up just 2.4 per game. They have won eight in a row against teams w/ losing records and are 14-2 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. 8* Calgary |
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02-08-19 | Hurricanes -117 v. Rangers | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
10* Carolina (8:05 ET): The Rangers ought to be thanking those working in the NHL's scheduling department because for a second straight game they'll be playing at home and against an unrested foe that's coming off a game the night prior. In this same situation Wednesday, they were able to rally back from a 3-1 third period deficit to beat Boston. It took a shootout to do so, but in the end, it was still two points. But let's not go mistaking that result for anything special. This is still a bad team, one of the league's worst in fact. They may have been able to sneak by Boston, but the same thing won't happen here against Carolina. The Hurricanes were winners last night, 6-5 in Buffalo. That was one of an NHL record eight overtime games played Thursday. It was a huge win for the 'Canes considering where they're currently at in the standings. They're now just three points back of the Wild Card in the Eastern Conference. Twice Carolina blew a two-goal lead in last night's game, including in the final five minutes of regulation. The fact that they still won is huge not only for the obvious reason, but also because a loss in that situation would have been quite deflating heading into tonight. The Hurricanes also were able to win a game where they were outshot, 39-30. More often than not this season, we've seen the reverse as they lose despite outshooting the opposition. Carolina owns - by far - the largest edge in shots forced vs. allowed in the league (+7.5 per game). One would think that metric would signify more success. It's starting to as the team has gone 12-4-1 its L17 games. They're 3-1 since the All-Star Break w/ an impressive 4-0 shutout of the Penguins to their credit. Over the last five games, they've averaged 4.6 goals. This is a payback game for the 'Canes as they lost here at MSG, 6-2, back on January 15th. They had a 36-28 edge in shots in that game, which saw the Rangers go 3 for 3 on the power play. That won't happen again and this time the 'Canes will have their #1 goaltender (Petr Mrazek) between the pipes. 10* Carolina |
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02-07-19 | Stars v. Predators -172 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
8* Nashville (8:05 ET): The Central Division has largely been about two teams this season, Winnipeg and Nashville. However, Dallas is trying to crash the party w/ a five-game win streak that predates the All-Star Break. The Stars are 4-0 since the Break and that includes a win here in Music City on Saturday. What are the chances they can beat the Preds twice in a row on the road? Not high from where I sit. Nashville is already 9-4 SU seeking revenge for a home loss this season. Though I won w/ the Stars on Monday, it was not an easy victory for them. They needed to score four times in the third period to overcome an uncharacteristic poor night on the defensive end. While they'd given up just two goals total in the previous three games, they allowed four to the Coyotes. It was a game they were pretty lucky to win considering they'd been outshot 42-29. Three of their five goals came via the power play. I wouldn't expect that kind of offense again from a team that ranks just 28th in the league in goals per game. Nashville also happens to be off a home win over the Coyotes. There's came the night after the Stars' (Tuesday) and clearly the Preds benefited from the 'Yotes being in a bad spot. It was an easy 5-2 win, indicative of what we've seen from this club most of the year. They finished w/ a 47-26 edge in shots and perhaps most importantly they ended an 0 for 34 streak on the power play. I think the revenge angle is key here as Dallas has actually won twice in Nashville this season. The third time will be the charm for the Preds. 8* Nashville |
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02-06-19 | Bruins -136 v. Rangers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -136 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): After they rewarded my faith by beating the Islanders 3-1 last night, I'm coming right back w/ the Bruins yet again Thursday. They've now won B2B games, including a 1-0 shutout of the Capitals on Sunday. They are still fourth in the Atlantic, but only two points out of second. A win tonight would have them no lower than third in the division and possibly tied for 2nd (Toronto hosts Ottawa). When playing in the second night of a back to back, carrying two steady goaltenders on the roster is a nice luxury to have. Fortunately for Boston, Jaroslav Halak has played just as big a role in the team ranking 4th in goals allowed as has last night's star Tuukka Rask. Look for the Bruins to keep rolling tonight. The Rangers are not a very good team. They've dropped both of the February games, each coming here at MSG. They lost 3-2 to the Lightning (no shame there) and 4-3 to the Kings. While not completely out of contention, for all intents and purposes, the Rangers aren't going anywhere this season. This was meant to be a rebuilding year and they are clearly one of the weaker teams in the Eastern Conference. They rank 25th or lower in both goals scored and allowed. Monday against the Kings was a particularly frustrating setback as they allowed the game tying goal in the final minute of regulation, then lost in overtime. It's been a long time (late December) since the Blueshirts dropped a game beyond regulation. It will be interesting to see how they respond. My guess is "not good" given they are facing a top flight opponent. The Bruins are actually 7-2 SU playing in the second night of a back to back, so the situation isn't really a concern. There should be no letdown from last night either considering this is a revenge spot for a 3-2 loss at home that took place three weeks back. The Bruins lost that game despite surrendering only 20 shots. They are 4-1 seeking revenge for a home loss. While the Rangers may be 6-1 SU the L7 H2H meetings, most of those were contested when they were a more competitive outfit. 8* Boston |
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02-05-19 | Islanders v. Bruins -152 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): The Islanders continue to be a massive surprise as they lead the Metro w/ 66 points. After losing their first game after the All-Star Break (1-0 to Tampa Bay), they beat the Kings on Saturday by a count of 4-2. That has them at 13-2-2 their last 17 games overall. But I don't see them going into Boston tonight and winning. The Bruins need this game as they are 4th over in the Atlantic. In terms of making the playoffs, they're not in a bad spot as they have a seven-point cushion when it comes to the Wild Card. But, like Sunday, this could be a statement over a potential 1st round playoff opponent. On Super Bowl Sunday, the Bruins went to the Nation's Capital and beat the defending Stanley Cup Champs 1-0. That was a much needed win as they were on a three-game losing streak. They also ended a 14-game losing streak to Washington. I thought they outplayed the Caps, outshooting them 39-24. A big key to the Bruins success this year is that they rank 4th in the league in goals allowed. The Islanders are one of the three teams above them in that category, but here at home Boston has an advantage. Their scoring goes up to 3.4 goals per game on home ice. Also, they're 5-1 SU this season after scoring 1 goal or less their previous game. No one saw the Islanders coming this year. I thought they'd improve some, but certainly not to this degree. Last year saw them give up the most goals in a single season in league history. Now they've given up the fewest number in the league. But goalie Robin Lehner has a checkered history vs. the Bruins, going just 4-11-4 in 19 career appearances. Boston's likely starter Tuukka Rask is 13-5 all-time vs. the Isles. Though they've dropped six of nine, the Bruins have played better as three of those losses came beyond regulation and two others were by a single goal. The Isles needed to come from behind to beat the Kings on Saturday. I don't think they can keep defying the odds. 8* Boston |
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02-04-19 | Coyotes v. Stars -185 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
6* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Stars have come out of the All-Star Break hot, winning three in a row while giving up just two goals in the process. That's emblematic of the somewhat radical transformation of this club, which finds itself ranked 2nd in the league in goals allowed after spending many seasons ranked near the bottom of the category. The transformation actually began last season, but this year they've been even stingier. The Stars just picked up two huge division wins to begin February, beating Minnesota and Nashville. I don't see there being any kind of letdown tonight for this home game against a team they have traditionally dominated. Dallas is where Arizona wishes it was right now, that being third place in the division. These teams will actually become division rivals in a few years when the Coyotes move over to the Central (to make room for the expansion team in Seattle). As for right now, the 'Yotes only need to worry about trying to get into the top three in their own division, or at least procure one of the two Wild Card spots. Facing a double digit gap in points, it's unlikely that they will finish top three in the Pacific. But the WC is a realistic possibility as they're only three points out of that race despite suffering B2B losses. Arizona has played only one time since the Break and they lost 3-2 in San Jose. Tonight will actually be their fifth straight road game, a trip that began all the way back on January 20th in Eastern Canada. That's a lot of time zones to be jumping in and out of and it's not like the Coyotes are any "great shakes" away from home (though their record is actually better on the road than at home!). Dallas just won in Nashville, which is very impressive, and has held eight of its previous nine opponents to two goals or fewer. They shut the Coyotes out, 3-0, here at home back in October. They should roll again tonight. 6* Dallas |
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02-02-19 | Devils v. Canadiens -155 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
8* Montreal (2:05 ET): The Canadiens got a nice long vacation thanks to the All-Star Break (last played a game on 1/23), so rest certainly will not be an issue Saturday when they entertain New Jersey for Eastern Conference matinee. The Habs are currently tied with Boston for 3rd in the Atlantic Division (w/ 61 pts). Of course, finishing third in your division guarantees a team a playoff berth. Montreal is also only two points out of second. So a win here would go a long way in the team's future standing in what has already been a nice bounce back season. Barring a miracle, New Jersey is likely not headed to the postseason. They're last in the Metro w/ just 45 points. There are many reasons for this, including the fact the team ranks 28th in goals allowed. They're also pretty horrible on the road. In fact, they have the league's worst road record at 6-17-3 SU. Two of those wins have come at Pittsburgh of all places, including a 6-3 victory there in their 1st game back from the All-Star Break. But that was followed up w/ a 4-3 home loss to the Rangers on Thursday. Having already played twice since the Break puts this already subpar side at even more of a disadvantage. The Habs should also have a little payback on their minds tonight after losing 5-2 down in NJ back in November. No matter who ends up in goal here for the Devils, we shouldn't expect strong play between the pipes as the collective save percentage of their netminders on the road is .881, which is really bad. Only two teams are worse. Montreal's Carey Price was really strong heading into the Break, posting a .971 save percentage his L4 starts. When playing w/ three or more days rest this season, the Habs have gone 3-1. This game sets up nicely for them and should be an easy two points. 8* Montreal |
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02-01-19 | Flames v. Capitals +103 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 103 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): Getting a week off of work is never a bad thing (foreign to me though!), but for Calgary, they probably wished the All-Star Break came at a different time. Arguably the hottest team in the league heading into the Break, the Flames have won eight of their last nine games, the only loss coming in overtime. They lead not only the Pacific Division, but the entire Western Conference w/ 71 pts. The only team in the league w/ more points (and a better goal differential) is Tampa Bay. But you have to wonder if the Break might interfere w/ their "momentum" (hate that word). Last year, the team lost six straight after the All-Star Game. Washington is just the opposite of Calgary in that they were glad to take some time off. They are currently on a season-worst seven-game slide and haven't won in three weeks. Prior to the current losing streak, the Capitals had not lost more than three games in a row at any point this season. Looking at the final scores of their recent games, it is not difficult to ascertain what has gone wrong here in the Nation's Capital. Over the L5 games, the Caps have surrendered an absolutely stunning 30 goals. They've given up six or more four times in that stretch. Another problem they have for tonight is that Alex Ovechkin won't be on the ice. He's suspended for his refusal to partake in the All-Star festivities. Yes, these teams headed into the Break in the most opposite of ways possible. But I think the time off will have done the Caps some good. While they won't have Ovechkin, the team itself is still very good in spite of how it played in January. The goaltending is going to get better, if for no other reason than it can't get any worse. Calgary is one of the top scoring teams in the league, but their scoring drops by more than a full goal per game on the road (3.1) from what they average at home (4.3). As for Calgary's goaltending, Dave Rittich has really carried them. But can we really expect him to maintain a .944 save percentage away from home? His L4 starts showed some signs of "slippage" as his save percentage was down to .899. 10* Washington |
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02-01-19 | Blackhawks v. Sabres -150 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (7:05 ET): This will be Chicago's 1st game since the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, it's the third for the Sabres. But I wouldn't worry about any fatigue from the latter's perspective. Buffalo is finally back home and should be pretty fired up to play in front of its fans, against a lesser opponent no less. From the very start of the season, my read on the Blackhawks has been pretty consistent. The oddsmakers were slow to realize just how bad this club truly is and we've been able to take advantage numerous times by going against them, no matter the price. There are many reasons why Chicago has fallen so hard. Little depth is one. Being unable to keep their opponents from scoring is another. But the bottom line is that only one team (Kings) has a worse YTD goal differential, and only two (Kings, Senators) have fewer points at this juncture. The Blackhawks are 30th in the league in goals allowed and last (31st) in penalty killing. Two wins before the All-Star Break (both at home) isn't going to convince me that the second half will be much different than the 1st. The loss of goaltender Corey Crawford for the foreseeable future leaves them w/o a viable option between the pipes. At one point, Buffalo was the talk of the league w/ a 10-game win streak. But they've subsided since and now find themselves outside the top eight in the Eastern Conference. But there's still hope as they're only three points back of the Wild Card. They've played two one-goal games since the Break, winning 5-4 in Columbus, then losing 1-0 in Dallas the following night. But now they're back home where they haven't played since January 12th. The crowd should be happy to see them. Like Chicago, there is a depth issue here beyond the top line. But the Sabres are still on pace to blow past their preseason projection of 80.5 points and they have a 14-6-3 SU record at home. Wednesday was only the 2nd time all season that they've been shutout. Big bounce back game at home for them tonight against an easy opponent. 8* Buffalo |
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01-31-19 | Flyers v. Bruins -202 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -202 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
6* Boston (7:05 ET): Everything lines up pretty well here for the Bruins. They're at home. They're the better team. They'll be motivated. I know that Philadelphia comes in riding a five-game win streak and is 2-0 since the All-Star Break. But I wouldn't go taking the Flyers very seriously. Even w/ the five straight wins, Philly only has 48 points. Only five teams have fewer. Their YTD goal differential of -27 is tied for 5th worst in the league. This is a team that has already matched a league record by using six goaltenders in one season. We still have 32 games to go. Boston lost its first game since the All-Star Break, at home to Winnipeg. The game came down to a shootout and was the fourth time in the last five games the Bruins lost by one goal. The B's really need to be careful as they've fallen to fourth place in the Atlantic, which means there's no guarantee of a playoff berth if they were to finish there. The good news though is they are only two points out of 2nd place in the division and there's only one team (Tampa Bay) in the entire Eastern Conference w/ more than 63 points. Boston has outscored its opponents this season by 14 goals and would appear to have a major advantage in goal tonight, no matter who is between the pipes. Boston owes Philly a little payback too. One of those recent one-goal losses that they suffered was in the City of Brotherly Love two weeks ago. Incredibly, the Bruins finished w/ a 42-19 edge in shots, but still lost 4-3. That should never happen. But Boston is much stronger on home ice w/ a 17-7-2 SU record as opposed to 10-10-4 SU on the road. The Bruins also had the edge in shots (39-27) Tuesday vs. Winnipeg. Consider this: during their five-game win streak, the Flyers are somehow outscoring opponents by two full goals per game despite a shot differential of -13.0 per game! Boston is 1-4 SU its last five games despite being +12.4 shots per game! What Philadelphia is doing is unsustainable. Boston absolutely deserves to be a favorite in this price range. 6* Boston |
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01-30-19 | Lightning v. Penguins UNDER 7 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Lightning/Penguins (8:05 ET): I understand that there may be some hesitation to bet these teams Under on an individual basis, let alone when they're facing off against one another. Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh rank 1st and 5th in the league in goals per game. However, know that much of the Lightning's record setting pace when it comes to goal scoring is due to what they've done on home ice where they average an other-worldly 4.32 gpg. (Calgary is fast approaching that number, however!). Tonight, TB is on the road where its scoring does experience a noticeable drop. It's also been a long layoff for them due to the All-Star Break. So I wouldn't look for the Lighting offense to be as sharp as usual and this should be played more along the lines of a playoff contest (where fewer goals are typically scored). Take the Under. Unlike the Lightning, the Penguins have played a game since the Break. It did not go well. They gave up six goals in a home loss to New Jersey Sunday. The offense was just fine w/ three goals scored on 40 shots. But the goaltending and overall defense was terrible, a continuation of a disturbing trend from before the All-Star Break. The Pens have now lost four of their last five games, giving up five or more goals in all four losses. That obviously doesn't sound good when getting set to face off w/ a team like Tampa Bay. But it should be pointed out that three of the goals allowed against New Jersey were on special teams. This is a team w/ a top six PK unit, so that was a surprise. The defense and goaltending has to start getting better in Pittsburgh if for no other reason than it simply can't get any worse. Lightning fans may want to dispute that claim, but their team has been held to two goals or fewer in three of its last four road games. Both teams will have their top goaltender between the pipes tonight. Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy in particular can help us out here as he carries a .925 save percentage into this game. The last seven times these teams have played the Over has cashed. But they haven't met since November and I think this one will be different. 10* Under Lightning/Penguins |
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01-28-19 | Jets -124 v. Flyers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): The Jets were one of the league's top teams in the first half of the season. They entered the All-Star Break tied for 1st place (w/ Nashville) in the Central Division. Only two teams - Tampa Bay & Calgary - have more points. But here Winnipeg will be looking to rebound from a defeat in their last game, which took place nine days ago in Dallas. They start the 2nd half in Philadelphia Monday night where they'll find a Flyers team that's on a rare three-game win streak. The Jets are simply the much better team in this matchup and thus should be played accordingly. While Winnipeg has established itself as one of the NHL's top teams, the Flyers reside at the opposite end of the league spectrum. Only a few teams have a worse goal differential this season. Philly has given up 30 more goals than it has scored and has the second fewest number of points in the league. Only Ottawa & New Jersey (both 43) have fewer and it's only a one-point difference. I mentioned earlier that the three-game win streak the Flyers are currently on is pretty rare. It's only the second of its length for the club all season. The last one (Nov 5-10) was immediately followed up by them losing six of their next seven games. The Flyers totaled 16 goals in the three wins before the All-Star Break. That's a high number for them as they're only tied for 20th in the league in goals per game. More problematic though has been the goaltending. They've already tied a NHL record by using SIX different goaltenders this season and we still have 34 games left. Philly ranks 29th in the league in goals allowed and has terrible special teams to boot. When these teams met last month in Manitoba, the Jets absolutely dominated, winning 7-1. 10* Winnipeg |
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01-23-19 | Hurricanes v. Canucks -108 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* Vancouver (10:35 ET): Few, if any, would have expected the Canucks to be playoff contenders going into the All-Star Break, but that's precisely where we're at right now in British Columbia. The club has 52 points entering Wednesday, which has them tied for a Wild Card spot in the not very deep Western Conference. Vancouver is unlikely to catch any of the top three (Calgary-San Jose-Vegas) in the Pacific, but right now they have as good a shot as any at grabbing one of those two WC spots. Tonight, they are benefiting from facing an opponent that is playing in the second night of a back to back. Look for the Canucks' somewhat "improbable" run to continue here! Carolina not only played last night, they lost in OT. For them, this is the end of a three-game trek in Western Canada. It started Sunday in Edmonton (where I took them) and they won there 7-4. But last night's loss to Calgary was all too emblematic of the kind of season the team from Raleigh is having. They outshot the Flames, 35-25, but it didn't end up mattering in the end. The 'Canes own the top shot differential in the league, but that simply has not translated into wins as they are below .500 and probably have a worse shot at making the playoffs than does Vancouver. Carolina's shooting percentage for the year is just 7.7% (woeful) and their goaltending does them no favors w/ a bottom five save percentage. While Carolina is playing its third road game in four nights and the second of a back to back, tonight marks the sixth straight home game for Vancouver, who has also been off for the last two days. Two key returns have sparked a two-game win streak for the Canucks. One is rookie Elias Pettersson, who leads all rookies w/ 44 points. Pettersson had a goal and an assist in Sunday's 3-2 win over Detroit. Goaltender Markstrom is also back and he stopped 35 of 37 shots in that same game. Note the Canucks have not been beaten in regulation during this homestand as they've gone 3-0-2. 10* Vancouver |
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01-22-19 | Red Wings v. Oilers -139 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -139 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
8* Edmonton (9:05 ET): If you don't defend home ice, then there's a strong likelihood you're not going to move up the standings. That's the dilemma facing the Oilers right now as Connor McDavid and company have dropped B2B games as well as 8 out of their L10 games at Rogers Place. I just played against them here, Sunday, as they lost 7-4 to Carolina. As noted in the analysis, that was a terrible spot for Edmonton as they were coming off a loss the night prior to rival Calgary in the Battle of Alberta. Somehow, despite the struggles at home, the Oilers have been able to stay in the playoff race. But they desperately need to win this final game before the All-Star Break. It'll be a far more favorable matchup tonight for Edmonton as they welcome in one of the worst teams in the league. Detroit has just four wins in its previous 19 games and is at the end of a three-game trip through Western Canada. The schedule makers did them no favors by having them go from Calgary to Vancouver and back to Edmonton. The Red Wings lost both games, 6-4 at Calgary and 3-2 at Vancouver, to fall to 8-13-3 on the road and into last place in the Atlantic Division. There's just not much this club does well right now, and they already lost to the Oilers (at home) back in November. The power play could prove to the difference maker in this one as Edmonton is 9th in the league w/ the man advantage, converting at a 21.5% rate. Detroit's PP has been brutal of late, including an 0 for 3 showing in Vancouver. You have to think the Oilers are due to start winning some home games. They enter the day just three points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference, so getting two points here is a must. Detroit's playoff chances are all but dead at this point as they're facing a 15-point deficit in the standings and clearly looking to rebuild. 8* Edmonton |
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01-21-19 | Blues v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Blues (4:05 ET): This is a "juiced up" total, similar to the last time I played the Kings Under, which was Thursday, and that ended up being a 2-1 final (in their favor). Saturday's game didn't go nearly as well w/ LA losing 7-1 at Colorado. They played a historically bad period, giving up six goals in the second to the Avalanche and obviously had no chance after that. In my analysis from Thursday, I made mention that the Kings are just putrid offensively on the road. Well, they're not much better at home and that's why they are dead last in the league in goals per game. This afternoon, they'll face another low-scoring team and I think another Under is in the cards. St. Louis is coming off a 3-2 win over Ottawa Saturday night. It was a much needed win after suffering B2B losses. Save for a 5-2 setback in Boston Thursday night, there hasn't been a whole lot of scoring in recent Blues' games as that game in Beantown is the ONLY one of their last eight to see more than five combined goals scored. The Under is 7-1 in that stretch. The road has seen the Blues go 14-5-1 to the Under and while the Kings may be the league's lowest scoring road team, the Blues aren't far off, ranking 27th w/ just 2.35 goals per game. The respective offenses are what is keeping these teams at or near the basement in their respective divisions. St. Louis isn't going to do what Colorado did to the Kings on Saturday, thus this should more closely resemble a "normal" Kings game. The Kings are 9-3 Under their last 12 games and have scored more than two goals just once in the last six. In 7 of 10 games in January, the Blues have allowed two goals or fewer. In terms of shooting percentage, both of these clubs rank right near the very bottom of the league. When they met back in November, the result was a 2-0 shutout in favor of LA. Goals will again be hard to come by tonight. 10* Under Kings/Blues |
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01-20-19 | Hurricanes -112 v. Oilers | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
8* Carolina (9:35 ET): At first, you might be a bit surprised to see the Hurricanes favored in Edmonton, but don't be. Despite suffering B2B embarrassing losses (to the Rangers & Ottawa), Carolina does have some key metrics in their favor. Eventually, this team is going to start scoring. They have to, considering they lead the league in shots per game and shot per game differential. Poor goaltending has hurt them, but it's mostly been strong goaltending by the opposition that has hurt them the most. While their own save percentage is slightly below .900 for the year, opponents have posted a .925 save percentage against the Canes this season. That's substantial. The good news here is that Edmonton's YTD save percentage is no better than that of Carolina. What the Oilers do have, at least recently, is a ridiculous .859 shot percentage over the L5 games. Despite an average of just 25.6 shots on goal during that time, they have averaged 3.6 goals per game, basically the opposite of what we're seeing w/ Carolina, who has a lot of shots that aren't being converted into the requisite number of goals. For Edmonton, that unusual percentage is mostly due to a 7-2 win over Buffalo last Monday. They were actually outshot in that game 43-25. But that caught up w/ them last night as their luck ran out here at home vs. Calgary (lost 5-2). Losing the "Battle of Alberta" should have a carryover-type effect for the Oilers tonight. It's always disappointing to drop a game to your rival, especially when you're outclassed as badly as Edmonton was. Having to come back and play the next night is tough. Carolina had won 7 of 8 prior to losing its last two games. Coach Rod Brind'Amour has promised line changes for this game and I believe that will chance the Canes' fate. Look for them to get the two points Sunday night. 8* Carolina |
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01-20-19 | Capitals -149 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -149 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
8* Washington (12:35 ET): Two teams that are on losing streaks meet in this Sunday afternoon game on NBC. Of the two, I'm predisposed to think the Capitals are the more likely to turn things around. They are the reigning Stanley Cup Champs and have been at or near the top of the Metro all season. This four-game losing streak of theirs is a season-worst. As for their opponent, Chicago has lost five in row in what continues to be a miserable season. The current losing streak is the third of its length this season for the Blackhawks, who have the worst goal differential (-38) in the entire league. The top four in the Metro are separated by just two points. Currently, Washington is third. Their most recent defeat came at the hands of one of the two teams ahead of them, the first place Islanders. The way the Caps lost that game was rather emblematic of their recent struggles. They were shutout, losing 2-0, making it just four goals in four games for them. That was a spot where you would have thought the Caps would have played a little better. They were at home and the Islanders were in the second night of a back to back. Clearly, four goals in four games is not going to get it done. Fortunately for Washington, however, Chicago is 30th in the league (2nd worst in goals allowed). In addition to having the worst goal differential in the league, the Blackhawks also have the fewest number of wins and points. So a pretty clear cut case can be made that they are the worst team in the league right now. It also helps Washington that Braden Holtby is back between the pipes. The team had surrendered 11 goals in the two games that he missed. In his return Friday night, he looked good, stopping 23 of 25 shots. 8* Washington |
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01-19-19 | Blue Jackets v. Wild -127 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (9:05 ET): Columbus was exposed a bit in last night's 4-1 loss to Montreal. I was on the Canadiens there and cited that while the Blue Jackets did enter the day in first place in the Metro, they actually had the division's fourth best goal differential. They'd been hot going into Friday (won 4 straight), but for the second straight night I think they make an excellent fade. While Minnesota is floundering a bit recently, and off an embarrassing loss to Anaheim, they are a team I expect to eventually ascend to third place in the Central. This is a good price on them on home ice. The Wild really were embarrassed Thursday night here at the XCel Center. They were shutout, 3-0, by an Anaheim team that had previously lost 12 in a row. All three goals were scored in the first period, so the game was basically "over before it started" and the Wild's 37-23 edge in shots was pretty much "null and void." However, I still see a team that has plenty going for it, such as the league's second ranked penalty kill. They have revenge here for a 4-2 loss in Columbus back in November. One thing that will be definitely be different from that last meeting is a new forward, Victor Rask, who is set to make his debut w/ the team tonight after getting traded from Carolina earlier this week. With this being the second night of a back to back, the Blue Jackets will likely be forced to turn to Sergei Bobrovsky in goal. In past year's that would be anything but a problem. However, in 2019 there appears to be a disconnect between "Bob" and the team as he recently was disciplined for hitting the showers (rather than the bench) after getting yanked after another subpar performance. Bobrovsky has posted a woeful .837 save percentage his L4 outings. With C-bus ranking 27th on the power play, they're going to have to be reliant on even strength scoring and that certainly did not come easy last night. The Blue Jackets are already just 3-5 playing w/o rest this season. 10* Minnesota |
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01-18-19 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
6* Puck Line Montreal (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a play on the puck line only where I am taking the Canadiens +1.5. This is a matchup where both teams come in hot. The last time the Habs played on the road, they beat Boston by a score of 3-2. They've now won three straight after beating Florida 5-1 on Tuesday. This win streak has them in 4th in the Atlantic Division and, if the regular season ended today, they'd be the final Wild Card. Given how well they have looked recently, I think taking them w/ an additional goal and a half is warranted here. Not to be outdone, the Blue Jackets have won four in a row and now actually lead the Metro. But the three teams that are close behind them are all better in my eyes. The last two games have seen C-bus roll over two bad teams (Devils, Rangers) here at Nationwide Arena. But we should tip our collective caps to them for also beating Nashville and Washington during this current run. Still, the club only ranks 20th in goals allowed and thus it's a little hard for me to see them winning this one by multiple goals, if they even win at all. Montreal hasn't just won three straight, they are also 9-4 SU the L13 games (Columbus is 11-3 SU its last 14). But the Canadiens have the superior goaltending in this matchup, no matter who they turn to. Carey Price has been outstanding all year long, but his backup Antti Niemi has really come on of late as well, including a 52-save effort against the Panthers Tuesday. In what will likely end up being a pretty low-scoring game, I think the +1.5 is going to be very valuable. 6* Puck Line Montreal (+1.5) |
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01-17-19 | Kings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* Under Kings/Stars (8:35 ET): Similar to the NBA, the NHL has seen somewhat of a "scoring renaissance" this season, but don't expect the trend to play out in this game. The Kings have been simply putrid on the offensive end, ranking dead last in the league in goals per game w/ only 2.26. As bad as that number is, things get even more dire on the road where they average LESS than two goals per game (1.86). To put that number in perspective, the next worst team is at 2.13 and that happens to be tonight's opponent, Dallas. I'm on the Under all the way in this one. The Stars used to be known for their high-scoring games. Then again, the Kings used to be good. For Dallas, the trend changed last season when they made a jump from 29th (out of only 30 teams at the time) in goals allowed to a respectable 6th. This year, they've been surprisingly even more stingy as they rank 4th in the league in goals allowed at 2.64. For the reasons stated above, they should have little difficulty in stopping the Kings from scoring here. The Under is 27-15-5 in all Stars' games this season, including 5-0-1 the last six. They have not scored more than three goals themselves in any of those six contests (just 8 goals total!). That brings us to the Dallas' decline offensively as they come into this game ranked 29th in the league, which is third fewest in the league. So this is the exact opposite of the Toronto-Tampa Bay game that we're also playing accordingly. It's two of the three LOWEST scoring teams in the league here w/ LA in the "Tampa Bay role" as a historically BAD offensive outfit and Dallas not too far behind. Remember when Stars' CEO Jim Lites ripped some of his team's star players? Well, the offense has actually DECLINED since then, to 2.2 goals per game and a woeful 6.7 shooting percentage. 8* Under Kings/Stars |
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01-17-19 | Ducks v. Wild -163 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -163 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
7* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Anaheim is in a massive freefall right now (lost 12 straight) and I've previously warned you that there's no end in sight. This is a team that was living dangerously in the early part of the season, winning an unusually high percentage of games in which they trailed most of the way. That's simply not a sustainable blueprint for success and sure enough the bottom has dropped out. Still, I don't think the end is near as we're now looking at a club w/ a bottom five goal differential in the league. Minnesota will have no sympathy for them tonight at the Xcel Center. The Wild should be frustrated by the fact that - despite Anaheim losing 12 in a row - they have only two more points compared to the Ducks. Five teams have definitely separated themselves in the Western Conference this year (Winnipeg, Nashville, Calgary, San Jose and Vegas), but unlike Anaheim, Minnesota probably has a legit shot at finishing third in its division. That's a guaranteed playoff spot by doing so and winning tonight could in fact put them into third place in the Central, passing Dallas and Colorado (Dallas hosts LA though and is favored to win tonight). Bottom line is Minnesota NEEDS these two points tonight. The same could be said for Anaheim, but two points has to seem like a pipedream at this point given how the team has played recently. They last won exactly one month ago and have been outscored 21-2 from the second period on during the 12-game losing streak. Things have only gone from bad to worse w/ Jakob Silfverberg, the team leader in goals, getting hurt in Tuesday's loss to the Red Wings. Ryan Kesler is also out. The Ducks already ranked second from the bottom in goals per game. Look for the Wild to perhaps win this game w/ special teams as they are top 10 in both penalty killing and the power play. 7* Minnesota |
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01-17-19 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Maple Leafs/Lightning (7:35 ET): What a game this should be as the top two teams in the Atlantic Division tangle Thursday night in Tampa Bay. I think we can all agree that the Lightning are the league's best team as that assertion is confirmed by virtually every available metric, simple or advanced. While there is a gap between them and Toronto (16 points in the standings!), I think the Leafs have as good a case as any to be called the second best team in the league. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair tonight and will be on the Over. Tampa Bay is on a record-setting offensive pace as they come into this game averaging over 4.0 goals per game. At home, they average 4.4. They also have the league's best power play, converting at a 29.1% clip. They haven't been quite as prolific over the last week, scoring just three goals total in their last two games. They were surprisingly dominated by the Islanders on Sunday (lost 5-1), but then bounced back to shutout Dallas 2-0 on Tuesday. Note that both of those games took place on the road. I also think they were a bit fortunate to kill off all six chances the Stars had w/ the man advantage Tuesday.  When Toronto last came calling to North Florida, the Lightning prevailed 4-1. However, the Leafs did have 49 shots on goal. Toronto really needs to get its act together in a hurry as they've dropped five of seven following a 6-3 defeat at the hands of Colorado on Monday. They have won four in a row on the road however, and after their top three scorers have been held off the sheet for the last three games, you'd expect at least one to have a big game tonight. Toronto is not that far behind Tampa Bay in scoring as they rank 3rd in the league in goals per game w/ 3.58. With two of the top three teams in the league in scoring here, an Over play just seems logical. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Lightning |
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01-16-19 | Avalanche -165 v. Senators | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
7* Colorado (7:05 ET): The Avalanche have certainly struggled of late, dropping 9 of their L11 games, but they're off a win and still tied for third place in the Central Division. With a win tonight, they can have that coveted third position (guaranteed playoff spot) all to themselves. They get a fortunate draw in Ottawa, who still should be considered one of the league's worst teams even after a surprisingly strong showing out on the West Coast where they took two of three. Earlier this year, the Avs routed the Senators 6-3 in Denver. It should be a similar story here. Any discussion of Colorado must begin w/ their top line of Rantanen, Landeskog & MacKinnon. Even as the team has struggled, this trio has continued its outstanding play w/ 63 total points in the L17 games. The primary issue for the Avs this year has been lack of depth behind what is the top line in the league, but Monday saw Carl Soderberg step up w/ his 1st career hat trick and that proved to be the difference in an impressive 6-3 win at Toronto. Rantanen (t2nd) and MacKinnon are both top five in the league in points while Landeskog is 6th in goals. Both Landeskog and Rantanen scored against Toronto, a game where the team finished w/ a 38-20 edge in shots on goal. Ottawa has major issues when it comes to stopping the opponent from scoring. Things get really bad on the road, but overall they are allowing 3.87 goals per game, which is dead last in the league. They also happen to allow the highest number of shots per game at 36.9. In other words, look for Colorado's top line to have a field day in this game. Last in the Atlantic Division, the Sens have the fewest points in the league as well as the 2nd worst goal differential (Chicago). As per usual, they are outmatched in this game and I expect them to drop to 9-20 SU this year when playing w/ revenge. 7* Colorado |
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01-15-19 | Blues v. Islanders -150 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): The Islanders are surging of late as they've won 8 of 10 to move into playoff position in the Eastern Conference. They're still fourth in the Metro, however, so they can't afford to cool off anytime soon. They have dropped two of their last four games, but on Sunday delivered their biggest win of the season, a 5-1 beatdown of Tampa Bay right here in Brooklyn. How can you not be impressed w/ that considering it was just the third loss in the last 21 games for the league-leading Lightning. Also impressive is the job done by HC Barry Trotz w/ this club. The Isles finished 17 pts off the playoff pace LY and gave up the most goals in league HISTORY. He now has them in playoff position and they are #3 in the league in goals allowed! St. Louis also just notched an impressive win, beating the Stanley Cup Champs (Washington) last night by a score of 4-1. It was the Blues' third straight victory, the first time all season they've won that many in a row. They've allowed a total of just three goals during the win streak, but still rank 20th overall in that department for the season. Last night was actually their second win over the Capitals this month. But they'll be hoping to avoid a bit of a deja vu here. After beating the Capitals earlier this month, who did the Blues face their next time out? That would be the Islanders, who beat them 5-3 in St. Louis. That game saw the Isles storm back from an early 0-2 deficit and win despite a 32-14 disadvantage in shots. It's unlikely that the Islanders will be outshot to that degree again tonight. They're at home where typically outshoot the opposition. Also, as we saw in that last meeting, the Isles would seem to have a significant edge between the pipes. Goalie Robin Lehner has been very good all season w/ a .926 save percentage. The Blues will likely use a different goaltender than they did last night and from the last time they faced NY. Jake Allen may have stunk vs. the Islanders (just 10 saves) earlier this month, but he was good last night in a 28-save effort. Rookie Jordan Binnington is likely to get the nod tonight. While Binnington is 3-0 so far w/ a ridiculous .973 save percentage, I'm skeptical that continues. I'm similarly skeptical about the Blues, who are still second from the bottom in the Central Division w/ a -10 YTD goal differential. 8* NY Islanders |
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01-14-19 | Canadiens v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Play Over Canadiens/Bruins (7:35 ET): These teams have a (recent) history of playing low-scoring affairs. In fact, two of the three meetings this year have produced a shutout (one by each team). Montreal is on a seven-game Under run and Boston is #2 in the league in goals allowed. Each team's top goaltender - Carey Price for the Habs and Tuukka Rask for the Bruins - has been red hot of late. The Under seems so "logical" in this scenario that even the official game preview referenced it! However, contrarian that I am, I'm looking to go the other way Monday night. Take the Over. Now, I'm not betting the Over here just to be different. We're getting a good number here as 5.5 goal totals are still common in this sport, but not as much as they used to be. Scoring is up this year in the NHL and I'm counting on that trend play out tonight in Boston. The Bruins are averaging an impressive 3.6 goals per game here on home ice this season. Note that over their L10 games, the B's have seen at least six total goals (them and their opponent combined) scored six times. The Under is 3-0-1 their L4, but I'm expecting a big offensive breakthrough this evening. Don't discount the impact that the Bruins' 3rd ranked power play could have on this game. Rask may not play tonight, which would be to our benefit. But even if he does, it's highly unlikely he'll be able to maintain his recent save percentage, which is at .954 the L5 games. Backup Jaroslav Halak's save percentage in his L4 starts is just .892. For Montreal, Price has posted two shutouts in his L5 starts, the latest coming against Colorado Saturday night (3-0 win). But I expect his numbers to take a slight dip moving forward as well. The Habs haven't faced too many prolific offensive teams recently, which partly explains the rash of Unders. Boston is 6th in the league in gpg at home and did score four times against Price when they faced him last month, on the road. The Bruins have averaged just under 35 shots per game in the three meetings w/ Montreal this season. 10* Over Canadiens/Bruins |
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01-13-19 | Ducks v. Jets -190 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
6* Winnipeg (6:05 ET): Anaheim has lost 10 in a row and Bell MTS Place in Manitoba seems like it would be one of the least likely places for such a streak to be snapped. Incredibly, the Ducks last six losses all came at home and in the last one, they surrendered seven goals. That was their most goals allowed in a game at the Honda Center in almost eight years. While the Ducks have blown a lead in five of their last seven games, don't expect them to be out in front - for any portion of the game - this evening. The Jets are 16-6-2 SU on home ice where they are averaging 3.8 gpg. If you recall some of my past analysis, I was predicting a Ducks' downfall before the current slide even began. The ironic thing about many of their recent defeats is that early in the season, they were winning plenty of games in which they trailed early. It was an unsustainable blueprint for success, one that has come home to roost. The team's YTD goal differential now sits at -27, which is worse than all but two teams in the conference, those being the two last place teams, Chicago and Los Angeles. The worst thing about giving up seven goals to the Penguins Friday is that the Ducks scored four themselves. Normally, they don't score that many. They currently rank 30th in the league in goals per game. Winnipeg had little difficulty beating another downtrodden team, Detroit, here at home on Friday. They won that one 4-2 as they took an early 3-0 lead and that easily held. Neither goal they allowed came at even strength. Despite that win, the Jets are still in a dogfight with the Preds for 1st place in the Central. The Preds play early on Sunday, so by gametime Winnipeg will either need these two points to keep pace or to move into first by their lonesome. While relatively speaking, this is a decent amount of juice to lay, it's actually a very good price on the Jets. 6* Winnipeg |
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01-12-19 | Rangers v. Islanders -188 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -188 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
6* NY Islanders (1:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between the two New York hockey teams. I took the Islanders Thursday on the road and they won 4-3 (despite a 30-20 deficit in shots). I see no reason why not to come back w/ the Isles again this afternoon. Sure it was close in MSG. But the Islanders have owned this Big Apple rivalry as they've gone 13-2 SU the L15 meetings. They're definitely the better team this year and the gap only appears to be widening. Now the home team, the Islanders have the edge all over the ice. In my analysis for that last game, I talked about how these teams had been trending in very opposite directions. The Islanders have won 10 of their last 12 games. The Rangers have now dropped five in a row as well as 8 of their last 10. In those five straight losses, they've given up a total of 26 goals. Given the respective YTD goal differentials, we should continue to see these teams trend apart. The Islanders have scored 14 more goals than they've given up this year, a strong number for this point in the season, while the Rangers have given up 30 more than they've scored. It's also a pretty substantial edge in goal these days for the Isles. Robin Lehner continues to perform at a high level for them between the pipes as he's won a career-best eight straight starts and has a stellar .943 save percentage his L5 starts (stopped 150 of 159 shots). Meanwhile, the once might Henrik Lundqvist is having a terrible go of it for the Rangers of late. He's been yanked twice during the Rangers current losing skid and let in four goals on just 20 shots Thursday. That dropped his save percentage over his L5 starts to a woeful .871. It doesn't help his cause that the Rangers have only scored 8 goals the L5 games. 6* NY Islanders |
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01-10-19 | Panthers v. Oilers -124 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): Two struggling teams meet here w/ the Oilers looking to snap an ugly five-game home losing skid. Florida has dropped three in a row overall, so something will have to give. Despite a couple of ugly losses, Edmonton was able to earn a split on a just completed four-game road trip through the Pacific. In terms of future outlook, I think they're in better position than the Panthers. Not only because of Connor McDavid, but also because of the division they play in. The Oilers are in the playoff hunt (three points out) while the Panthers are languishing well behind the pace (by 10 points) over in the Eastern Conference. Edmonton badly needs these two points and gets them Thursday night. It would be a damn shame if the Oilers were to waste what has been one of the great individual seasons (from McDavid) w/ another non-playoff year. In 42 games played, McDavid has 63 points while averaging over 22 minutes of ice time per contest. With him on the ice, the team is outscoring its opponents by a pretty substantial margin. The problem is when McDavid heads to the bench. But still, tonight's game is the start of a favorable stretch for them. Six of their next eight opponents, including this one, are currently NOT in playoff position. Also, six of the next seven games are at home. Of course, a second half surge would actually require them winning on home ice, something they have not done since December 14th. I think the Oilers are poised to break the drought tonight. Florida just got whipped in Pittsburgh, losing 5-1 as goalie Roberto Luongo was chased early. This is also a revenge spot for Edmonton, who lost 4-1 down in Miami, which is obviously a very far road trip. Now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" and the Panthers have to make the long trek. Already near the bottom of the league in goals allowed per game, Florida has proven to be quite generous to its opponents on the road, giving up 3.9 gpg. The Oilers, McDavid specifically, should take full advantage of that. 10* Edmonton |
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01-10-19 | Islanders -125 v. Rangers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
9* NY Islanders (7:35 ET): This is one of two late adds I've made to my Thursday card (the other is in NBA) and quite honestly I'm not sure how I "missed it" the first time going through the NHL card. While both ply their trade in New York City, the Islanders and Rangers are trending in very different directions of late. The Isles just had a six-game win streak snapped, but they've still won 9 of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Rangers have dropped four straight as well as 7 of their last 9. Those four straight losses saw them give up a a total of 22 goals! The Islanders rank 4th in the league in goals allowed, giving them a substantial edge in this matchup. Take them. The Islanders lost to another hot team, Carolina, on Tuesday. It was a 4-3 game where they actually outshot the Hurricanes, something that most Carolina opponents do not do. This team currently projects as a legit playoff contender w/ a +13 goal differential and 50 points. Right now, I'd say they may not even have to rely on the Wild Card, but could instead finish in the top three in the Metro. Tonight is a revenge game as they were embarrassed 5-0 the last time they skated at this rink. You can bet avenging that defeat will be on the players' minds here. They are still 8-2 SU their L10 games vs. the Rangers. When the Rangers beat the Isles here at MSG in November, they were on the tail end of a 9-1-1 surge that had some thinking this team had a playoff run in them. But that proved to be foolish optimism as the Blueshirts have gone just 5-10-5 since and won B2B games just one time. Things have gotten really dire of late as they've been outscored 22-5 the L4 games. Henrik Lundqvist sat out Tuesday's loss to Vegas, but it's not like he's played all that well of late (.882 save percentage L4 games) and he was tagged for five goals in a 7-5 loss to the Isles earlier this year. The Islanders also gave their top netminder a rest in the last game, but the difference is that Robin Lehner has a .953 save percentage his L4 starts. 9* NY Islanders |
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01-09-19 | Predators -178 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
7* Nashville (8:05 ET): These teams currently sit at opposite ends of the Central Division. Nashville is battling out w/ Winnipeg for first place while Chicago is at the bottom w/ St. Louis. In my eyes, there's no disputing that the Blackhawks are the division's worst and should be the clear last place team. They have a -32 goal differential, which is the worst in the entire Western Conference. The come into tonight fresh off a home defeat to another division leader, that being Calgary Monday night. The Preds are seeking a bit of revenge for a 2-1 loss that took place here in the Windy City last month. Nashville did not have a particularly good finish to December, at one point losing six games in a row. But they won New Year's Eve in Washington (6-3) and now come into this game as winners of four of the last five. All but one of those wins came out on the road and the last two have seen them outscore Montreal and Toronto by a combined 8-1 margin. Monday marked their 5th shutout of the season as they picked up a very impressive 4-0 win over the Maple Leafs. Perhaps most impressive is that they were able to hold Toronto to just 18 shots on goal. The Preds only loss in the L5 games came in overtime and they've scored a total of 21 goals during that stretch. Nashville ranks #1 in the league in goals allowed per game, giving them a decided edge over a Chicago club that ranks 29th in that department. I have faded the Blackhawks w/ great regularity this season as the oddsmakers were slow to catch onto just how far they've fallen in the L2 years. While it's rare to see them priced as this big of an underdog at home, the price is more than fair. Nashville is 12-4 SU coming off a win by 2+ goals. They enter the day one-point back of idle Winnipeg (who won last night) for first in the Central, so they'll badly want these two points and get them. 7* Nashville |
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01-08-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders -121 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): This battle of Metro teams finds each side streaking in a positive direction, but the Islanders are both hotter and better, so I'll grab them at what looks like a very optimal price at home. Carolina has won four in a row, scoring 17 goals in the process. But goal scoring has generally been a problem for the Hurricanes as they rank dead last in the league in shooting percentage and 28th in goals per game. That's going to be a problem against tonight's opponent as the Isles, winners of six straight and 9 of 10, are #2 in goals allowed. I just made a play on New York last Thursday when they beat Chicago 3-2 out on Long Island. That was followed up w/ a 4-3 win in St. Louis on Saturday. HC Barry Trotz has done a remarkable job w/ this team as LY they set a new NHL record for most goals allowed in an 82-game season. As I said earlier, this year they've allowed the second FEWEST in the league. Now the win over the Blues was ugly. The Islanders were outshot 32-14 and had to rally from an early 0-2 deficit. But w/ a choice of two-red hot goaltenders, Robin Lehner or Thomas Greiss, Trotz should be able to count on his team keeping Carolina from finding the back of the net too much in this one. This will be the 4th meeting already this season between these teams and the Islanders have won each of the previous three. They've done so despite being outshot rather dramatically (112-59!), but that's largely the story of Carolina's season as they get a lot of meaningless shots on goal and don't convert. Their goaltender is a far bigger question mark. While the Canes have won four straight games, two were against Philadelphia and another at Ottawa (Sunday). Those are teams below them in the standings. This season, they are just 5-9 SU vs. teams w/ winning records. 10* NY Islanders |
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01-07-19 | Kings v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
10* Over Kings/Sharks (10:35 ET): On paper, this is a game that San Jose should win easily. But if you've looked at the money line, then you already know that. The Sharks are a pretty strong club on home ice; outscoring its visitors by a full goal per game, one of only four teams in the league doing that. Only three teams in the league average a higher number of goals per game at home than San Jose. One is the historically great offense down in Tampa Bay (the other two are Calgary and Boston). But the ML is too high to play here. With the Sharks doing most of the "heavy lifting" though, I think the Over is a far more reasonable call here. The Kings have plenty of issues scoring goals. They are actually dead last in the league in goals per game at 2.26. On the road, they average a putrid 1.9 gpg. That's a number that has to start going up. Saturday, LA did record a 4-0 shutout of Edmonton at home. They scored those four goals on just 23 shots, three of them coming on the first eight, which led them to chase Oilers' goalie Mikko Koskinen in the first period. But equally as key to that victory was the Kings facing only 16 shots on goal for the game. Whomever starts in goal tonight (likely Jonathan Quick) will likely be under far greater siege as San Jose averages 33.5 shots per game here at home. Quick hasn't exactly been his usual solid self between the pipes this year. His save percentage on the road is just .895. Recent San Jose games have been very high scoring as the last six have all seen six or more total goals scored. The L4 have averaged 10.0 total gpg! Somehow, despite being short-handed on the blue line, the Sharks were able to end the Lightning's 16-game point streak Saturday. They won 5-2 and held TB to only 20 shots on goal. Even w/ the Kings' offensive deficiencies, I expect the Sharks' injuries to catch up w/ them here. Goalie Martin Jones has a sub-.900 save percentage on the year. It's been a very long time since these SoCal rivals played to an Over, but it happens here. 10* Over Kings/Sharks |
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01-06-19 | Capitals -168 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
7* Washington (5:05 ET): The Capitals could really use two points here as they've dropped three in a row, leaving them in a first place tie w/ the red hot Penguins for 1st in the Metro. Fortunately, today finds the Caps in Detroit where they'll be facing a downtrodden Red Wings club they've already beaten twice this season (both times in D.C.). The Wings did just beat Nashville here on home ice Friday, but prior to that overtime win, they'd lost six in a row. This is Washington's 1st three-game losing streak of the season. They're 5-1 SU the L2 years when on such a streak and they should easily snap this one here in the Motor City. After taking a couple of ugly losses against Nashville (6-3) and St. Louis (5-2), the reigning Stanley Cup Champs at least played a little better Friday night in Dallas. That game went to OT and while the Caps lost 2-1, they did outshoot the Stars 37-29. HC Todd Reirden called it the team's "best 2nd and 3rd (periods) in awhile." I think it's also important to remember that prior to this three-game skid, Washington had won 9 of 10 games, the lone loss coming to Pittsburgh. They remain 6th in the league in goals per game. Detroit is a bottom five team in the league for me. Even though they were able to snap their losing streak Friday vs. Nashville, that was a game they trailed 2-0 early. Now Red Wings fans will want to point to the fact their team BLEW similar leads in their two previous losses. But the bottom line is this team is simply not on the Capitals' level. Neither goaltender has played well recently and the Wings are just 2-11 SU at home this season if the O/U line is 6.0 or higher. They are 26th in the league in goals allowed and that simply "won't fly" against a team like the Capitals. 7* Washington |
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01-05-19 | Wild -165 v. Senators | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
7* Minnesota (1:05 ET): The Wild need to keep winning as they are not only rapidly falling behind the top four in their own division (Central), but also are four points back of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. One positive sign for them is that unlike the three teams (all from the Pacific) in front of them, Minnesota has a positive goal differential on the year. They've faced a very challenging schedule of late and a five-game losing skid in December certainly did them no favors. But today, they get to face an Ottawa team that is as bad as any in the league. I look for the Wild to come through in this matinee.  Considering they've recently won games at both Winnipeg and Toronto, this game should be an easy two points for the Wild. Thursday saw them prevail 4-3 in Toronto. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk led the way w/ 38 saves as Minnesota rallied back from deficits of 2-0 and 3-2. This is a team that ranks in the top 10 (8th) in goals allowed, plus they are top eight on the power play and in penalty killing as well. I believe they're poised for a second half surge even w/ the loss of defenseman Matt Dumba. Dubnyk has a terrific .922 save percentage when the team is short-handed and can keep the Wild in any game. Meanwhile, Ottawa isn't going anywhere. They have the dubious distinction of having allowed the most shots and goals in the league so far. The Senators already lost down in Minnesota this year, 6-4, which was the fifth straight time they've tasted defeat at the hands of the Wild. This team also now has the worst goal differential in the sport (-34). I think that it's pretty fair at this point to call the Sens the worst team in the league. They come into Saturday as losers of six in a row and have given up 28 goals during that span. Their last game was as disheartening as it gets as they rallied late against Vancouver to force OT, only to still lose. This game is a "must have" for Minnesota and I think they get the job done. 7* Minnesota |
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01-04-19 | Predators -182 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -182 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
6* Nashville (7:35 ET): This is a very big mismatch on the Friday NHL card. Nashville did go through a tough stretch in December, at one point losing six in a row. But they've rebounded by winning B2B games while scoring 10 goals in the process. Making those performances even more impressive is the fact they came on B2B nights, New Year's Eve and Day. They won 6-3 at Washington (definitely impressive!) before returning home to start 2019 w/ a 4-0 shutout of the Flyers. The Predators are now 2nd in the Central w/ 50 pts, just two back of Winnipeg. Detroit is trending in a very different direction as they're second from the bottom in the Atlantic and don't figure to rise up anytime soon. If you recall, I just played against the Red Wings on Wednesday as they blew an early 2-0 lead at home and lost to Calgary, 5-3. That makes it six losses in a row now for them and they've blown big 1st period leads in each of the last two games. Monday vs. Florida, also here at home, they led 3-0 at the end of one period, only to lose in a shootout. As I said in my analysis for the Calgary game, the Red Wings are a clear bottom five team (in the league) in my eyes. With the Preds having scored 10 times in just the last two games, Detroit better be on "red alert" as they've given up a frightening number of goals recently. In just the L5 games, they've allowed 24 total and few teams can overcome that number, especially one as bad as the Red Wings. The club is 3-12 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game and 2-11 SU after losing the previous game by 2+ goals. Nashville is 12-3-1 SU vs. the Eastern Conference this year and 11-3 SU after winning its last game by 2+ goals. Clearly the superior side in this one, they are being priced accordingly. 6* Nashville |
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01-03-19 | Canucks v. Canadiens -170 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
7* Montreal (7:35 ET): This is an excellent spot to fade the Canucks as they're coming off an overtime win in Ottawa last night. That game saw Vancouver blow a 3-1 lead in the third period, so they ended up expending far more energy than necessary. They outshot the Senators 45-33, got two power play goals, one from Elias Pettersson, who ended up w/ a hat trick. Getting such production tonight is highly unlikely considering they are going from facing a team that ranks dead last in the league in goals (and shots) allowed to an opponent getting its top goaltender back. Carey Price is expected back in goal tonight for the Habs. Before missing the last three games due to the birth of his child, he had been dealing w/ a lower-body injury for about seven weeks. "I'm feeling pretty good," Price said. "I'm going to see how things go [Wednesday night] and see how I recover going into [Thursday]. "If everything goes well, I'd imagine playing." Price's return would be huge for a Montreal club fighting for a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Note that if for some reason he cannot go tonight, this play is still valid. The Habs would then turn to Antti Niemi, who made 45 saves in a 3-2 win at Dallas on Monday. The Canadiens haven't played since that New Year's Eve victory, so unlike the Canucks, they're well rested. As I mentioned they're also desperate for two points so that they can maintain the Wild Card spot they currently hold. They come into tonight having downed Vancouver all five times the teams have played the L3 seasons. That includes a 3-2 win in British Columbia back in November. Montreal has scored a lot of goals lately (19 in the L5 games) and tends to get a lot of shots on goal (37.6 per game) here on home ice. I simply don't trust a subpar Vancouver team to get the job done in this spot. 7* Montreal |
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