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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-03-19 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
7* NY Islanders (7:35 ET): I haven't needed much of an "excuse" to play against the Blackhawks this year as I realized pretty quickly that they were in store for a shockingly poor season. Really, the decline began last year and they're now just 24-50 their L74 games overall. Initially, after they fell off LY, I thought there might be some improvement this season. But instead they've sunk even further and now own the worst goal differential in the Western Conference (-32) after taking a 4-2 loss to Boston on New Year's Day in the Winter Classic (game was played at Notre Dame Stadium). I faded the 'Hawks there and will do so again here. The Islanders are a hot team right now, having won four straight and seven of the last eight. Like Chicago, they fell off a bit last year. Unlike the Blackhawks, they've bounced back. Doing so after losing long-time captain John Tavares to Toronto is pretty impressive. The Isles just beat Tavares and the Leafs in a heavily hyped matchup last Saturday, 4-0. They followed that up w/ a 3-1 win in Buffalo. They now occupy fourth place in the Metro and have the fifth best goal differential in the Eastern Conference. This is a legit playoff contender and I expect them to play well through the second half of the season. Looking at tonight's matchup, this is the second straight game where Chicago is playing in a unique atmosphere. It was outdoors in South Bend on New Year's Day, now they head to the Nassau Coliseum, which was the old home of the Islanders. New York now plays its home games at Barclays Center, but this is one of four games they'll play in their old home out on Long Island. I can't say enough about the job done here by Isles' HC Barry Trotz, who inherited a team that set a record for futility in terms of goals allowed LY (gave up 296) and now is #1 in the league in goals allowed (just 102). Meanwhile, Chicago is 30th in the league in goals allowed per game. They are last in penalty killing as well, something the Isles' should be able to take advantage of tonight. 7* NY Islanders |
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01-02-19 | Flames -170 v. Red Wings | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
7* Calgary (7:05 ET): The Flames snapped a three-game home losing streak in resounding fashion on the night of New Year's Eve, smashing San Jose by a score of 8-5. I'm happy to report I was on the Pacific Division leaders in that one and will come right back w/ them again this evening in Detroit. Calgary continues to pace the Pacific w/ 52 points (tied w/ Vegas) and has the top goal differential in the entire Western Conference (+29). As I said in my previous analysis (for the San Jose game), they were the ONLY team in the league currently in the top five in both goals scored and allowed. They've "slipped" to 6th in goals allowed, but are still the only team in the top six in both categories (only Toronto & Winnipeg are also both top 10). Calgary should roll here against a Detroit club that has lost five straight and 9 out of its last 10. The Red Wings tasted defeat at the hands of Florida, 4-3, in their last game which came here on home ice New Year's Eve (blew a 3-0 lead too). The Red Wings now have a bottom five goal differential in the league (-25) and as was expected, they're near the bottom of the Atlantic Division standings (only ahead of Ottawa). I don't see things getting much better any time soon for the Wings as they managed just 20 shots on goal vs. the Panthers and have now given up 4+ goals in four straight games. This is simply a very bad hockey team right now. In my analysis for Calgary-San Jose matchup, I mentioned how the Flames are #2 in the league in goals per game at home (trailing only the historically great Lightning). Well, their scoring may dip away from the Saddledome, but the good news is that the Flames are by far and away the top team in the league when it comes to fewest goals allowed on the road, allowing just 2.1 per game (Pittsburgh is #2 at 2.47). As you can tell, I really like this team and its prospects moving forward. I feel the exact opposite about Detroit, making this the biggest mismatch on the NHL card Wednesday. 7* Calgary |
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01-01-19 | Bruins -133 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
8* Boston (1:05 ET): I've been no fan of this Blackhawks team this season and I don't think Touchdown Jesus can save them here as they face the Bruins, at Notre Dame Stadium, in the annual Winter Classic on New Year's Day. While B2B wins have allowed Chicago to temporarily escape the basement in the Central Division (ahead of St. Louis), they still own the worst goal differential in the Western Conference at -30. Boston probably won't be able to catch the leaders in the Atlantic (TB/Toronto), but they are better than their record and could easily finish third in the division. I know "anything can happen" at a neutral setting such as this, but the Bruins are the superior team and should win easily. Boston won its last game, in overtime, as they went to Buffalo Saturday night and prevailed 3-2. They actually dominated in terms of shots on goal, finishing w/ a 42-28 advantage there, and would have won in regulation if not for allowing a short-handed goal. When it comes to allowing goals this year, the Bruins have been one of the stingiest teams in the league, ranking 3rd at just 2.64 per game. They also have the league's fourth ranked power play, converting at 26.6%. That 4th ranked PP could come in handy this afternoon given the Blackhawks are dead last in the league in penalty killing at just 74.2%. The PK has been an issue w/ this team for a couple years now and is only now finally coming back to bite them. Remember that Chicago is still w/o top goaltender Corey Crawford (concussion), leaving Cam Ward to likely start today's game. Ward has a save percentage of just .886 for the season. Overall, Chicago ranks 30th (next to last) in the league in goals allowed per game at 3.71. They've allowed only four total in posting the B2B wins, but I look for the defensive issues to reappear today in South Bend. 8* Boston |
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12-31-18 | Sharks v. Flames -115 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10* Calgary (9:05 ET): Though they are leading the Pacific Division and have the top goal differential in the Western Conference, I view this as a very important game for the Flames, who have - uncharacteristically - lost three in a row at home. Going back to the end of the 2016-17 season, they've also lost six straight times to the Sharks. That - and the losing streak at home - have got to end sooner rather than later, so w/ Calgary turning in a strong season overall, there's no time like the present. I think this is an outstanding value on home ice. San Jose was successful in its first leg of this two-game Alberta trip, beating Edmonton 7-4 on Saturday. That came on the heels of a home win against Anaheim (which I was on!) Thursday. Prior to that, the Sharks had experienced their own home woes w/ three straight losses at The Tank. But they've also struggled at times on the road this year, going 9-8-3. They are also just 6-9 SU so far against teams with a winning record. They may just be one point back of Calgary in the Pacific, but YTD goal differentials indicate there's a larger gap in the respective levels of play. Goaltending also hasn't been sharp the L5 games w/ an .870 save percentage. Calgary is one of only three teams in the league averaging at least 4.0 goals per game at home. So it's a surprise to see them slumping a bit of late. But four of the eight home losses suffered this year came past regulation, including the one Saturday night to Vancouver where they blew a 2-1 lead. Interesting enough is that both Flames goals came short-handed! This is still the ONLY team in the league to rank in the top five in both goals scored and allowed. They are 13-5 SU against teams w/ winning records and in division games, they're allowing an average of just 24.4 shots per game. 10* Calgary |
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12-31-18 | Lightning -155 v. Ducks | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): These teams have been trending in different directions for the last two weeks now and I expect that to continue here. Tampa Bay hasn't just been hot recently (won 5 in a row); they've been hot all year. They are pretty clearly the best team in the league right now and are 13-0-1 over the L14 games. They haven't tasted defeat in regulation this entire month. As for Anaheim, they were a team I felt was due to regress and regress is exactly what they've done as they've dropped five in a row coming into tonight. The Ducks rank 29th in the league in goals per game, so I'm not sure how they "keep up" here, given that the Lightning are 1st in the league in scoring and have scored six goals in three consecutive games. Making matters worse for Anaheim is that the Lightning have some payback on their minds for a loss suffered at home back on November 27th. When the Ducks won 3-1 in TB a month ago (were +200 on the ML!), it marked the third consecutive time the road team won in this head to head rivalry. Don't look for home ice to be enough to save the Ducks here as they just lost to Arizona here two nights ago, 5-4. When these teams met the first time, the Lightning had a 35-22 edge in shots, but fell victim to two quick goals in the third period (scored 30 seconds apart), one coming on a Ducks' power play. I just don't see anything close to a similar scenario playing out here tonight. Who can dispute TB as the league's best team right now? They have the best overall record (30-7-2), the top goal differential (+50) and haven't lost a game in regulation since November 27th. During the 13-0-1 run, they've scored a ridiculous 5.6 goals per game, always scoring at least three and topping four 10 times! This is a historically good offense right now that appears as if it cannot be stopped. They have scored five or more goals in five straight games, six in three straight and they are 10-2 SU after allowing 4+ goals their previous game (won 6-5 vs. Montreal Saturday). Their only loss this month came at Winnipeg, who is one of the top teams in the league, in overtime. 8* Tampa Bay |
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12-29-18 | Canucks v. Flames -195 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -195 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
6* Calgary (10:05 ET): Though the price is set high (correctly so!), I love the setup for this Pacific Division matchup here. Calgary, who leads the division, will be looking to end a rare two-game losing streak. Vancouver is in the middle of the pack, but not really a very good team and I don't see them making it a 2-0 sweep here in Alberta. The Canucks just won 4-2 in Edmonton on Thursday, but got all four goals in the first period and finished w/ just 20 shots on goal. It's a much tougher opponent tonight and I like the Flames to roll. I like this Calgary team's chances of doing damage in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It's been over a quarter century since a Canadian franchise hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup, but this year finds both Western Conference division leaders hailing from "North of the Border." The Flames just won the battle of first place teams, in Winnipeg no less, beating the Jets 4-1 Thursday (thanks to a Johnny Gaudreau hat trick). Note that the Flames are currently the ONLY team in the league to rank in the top five for both goals scored and goals allowed. Their +27 YTD goal differential is tops in the Conference. These Western Canadian rivals have met twice before this season (first two games of the season) w/ the home team winning each time in a high-scoring affair. It was 7-4 Calgary the last time the Canucks came calling to the Saddledome. That's fairly "par for the course" here as the Flames rank #2 in the league in goals per game at home, trailing only Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Vancouver has a pretty bad .890 save percentage on the road. They have not won B2B division games at any point this season and, in fact, are just 1-9 SU coming off a division game, win or lose. 6* Calgary |
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12-28-18 | Senators v. Islanders -182 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
6* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Both teams are returning to the ice tonight after extended breaks. The Islanders last played on Sunday when they went to Dallas and won 3-1, their 4th win in the last 5 games. Ottawa has been off since Saturday when they were blanked down in Washington, 4-0. It's been a long year for the Senators, who are in last place in the Atlantic and possibly the worst team in the entire Eastern Conference. The Islanders, on the other hand, are looking to keep pace w/ the top three in the Metro and really could use the two points here. They're at home and should get them. Under HC Barry Trotz, the Isles have really turned things around defensively. They rank in the top 10 in 5 v 5 save percentage and are top five in goals allowed. While they are a somewhat disappointing 22nd in goals scored per game, Trotz's teams always overachieve and the Isles' shot percentage of 10.3% means they're making them count. Tonight is the team's first home game in nearly two weeks, so I suspect they'll be pretty fired up. While this amount of rest has hardly been ideal this season (0-3 SU record w/ 3+ days rest), look for them to lean on goaltender Robin Lehner, who has a 6-0-3 career WL record vs. the Senators. Ottawa has an issue in goal w/ Craig Anderson currently sidelined due to a concussion. This means either third-stringer Mike McKenna or rookie Marcus Hogberg will get the nod. Neither is a particularly inspiring choice, especially considering the Sens are already dead last in the league in goals per game (3.89) allowed and they also are giving up the most shots per game by a pretty considerable margin. The Senators are also just 4-12-1 on the road this season. Both teams are playing the front end of a back to back here and I realize the Isles have a big showdown w/ Toronto and former captain John Tavares tomorrow night. But they are pretty clearly the better team here and should win comfortably. 6* NY Islanders |
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12-27-18 | Ducks v. Sharks -163 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
8* San Jose (10:35 ET): Neither of these SoCal rivals went into the Holiday Break playing very well. In fact, they sport matching three-game losing streaks. For Anaheim, the swoon seemed all but inevitable. This is a team that has spent the majority of its ice time playing from behind this year. They have a negative goal differential (-14) and have gotten a level of goaltending, from John Gibson in particular, that is totally unsustainable. Gibson will have to continue carrying the club w/ Ryan Miller on the shelf and I just don't see it working out for the Ducks in the second half. San Jose isn't in a much better position than Anaheim right now. They are in a top three spot in the Pacific (2nd to be exact), but their lead over the 4th place Ducks is precarious at best w/ just a two-point advantage. What was most disappointing of all about the Sharks' three-game losing streak heading into the break is that every loss occurred at home. Despite said losing streak, they only have been beaten four times in regulation all year at the Shark Tank. Something to keep in mind w/ this Sharks team is that they are tied for the league lead in most losses suffered beyond regulation (7), so their record could easily be better. The L2 games both saw them fall in extra time. Gibson has a .926 save percentage, which ranks third among all qualifying goalies, and Anaheim leads the league in 5 v 5 save percentage. But like I said earlier, I don't think the numbers are sustainable. Meanwhile, San Jose has been doing a good job at getting shots off and possessing the puck. They've simply yet to reap the rewards as they're near the bottom of the league in shot percentage. But that should change as should their overall save percentage. Bottom line is that while these teams are pretty even in the standings, San Jose has played significantly better for the first two months of the season. Anaheim is 30th in the league in goals per game. 8* San Jose |
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12-27-18 | Wild -149 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -149 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:35 ET): Oh, how the mighty have fallen. For most of the last decade, Chicago has been a perennial Stanley Cup contender, even winning it on three separate occasions. However, this once proud franchise hit the skids last year and has yet to recover. Usually, after a big dropoff like the one the Blackhawks experienced last year, there's a bit of a bounce back the following season. But that hasn't taken place here. In fact, things have gone from bad to worse as the team has the worst goal differential (-34) in the entire league this year and resides in the basement of the Central Division. Minnesota is a team fighting in the middle of the pack of the Western Conference. I still project them as a Wild Card team, but they'll have to turn things around pretty quickly as they went into the Holiday Break on a four-game losing streak. In those four losses, three of which came at home, the Wild totaled all of three goals. But I'll look for them to turn things around offensively against an opponent that ranks 30th in the league in goals allowed. Chicago has a major issue between the pipes right now w/ Corey Crawford sidelined w/ another concussion. Cam Ward is hardly a viable long-term option and Collin Delia remains unproven. The Wild will have a significant edge on special teams in this game as do most Blackhawks' opponents. That's because Chicago's special teams are just horrible. They rank 30th on the power play and dead last in penalty killing. Minnesota went 0 for 3 on the PP in their last game, a 2-1 overtime loss to Dallas. Obviously, that cost them dearly. But if they were to get that many opportunities again w/ the man advantage here, there will be a breakthrough. The Wild are 4-1 playing w/ 3+ days rest this year (Chicago is 0-3) and Devan Dubnyk will give them a significant edge in goal. 8* Minnesota |
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12-22-18 | Blues v. Flames -175 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -175 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
6* Calgary (4:05 ET): All signs point to an easy win for the Flames Saturday afternoon at the Saddledome. This is a team that has really dominated its opponents here on home ice. They average 4.3 gpg at home for the year, which is most in the league. They are coming off a rare home defeat, 5-4 to Tampa Bay, but that game was decided in a shootout and the Lightning are the best team in the league right now. Saturday's opponent, St. Louis, resides at the bottom of its division. The Flames are a strong 9-1 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. St. Louis is at the end of a three-game trek through Western Canada. While things started nicely w/ a 4-1 win at Edmonton on Tuesday, the good times didn't last long as the Blues fell 5-1 in Vancouver Thursday night. For the year, the Blues have just five road wins, which is fourth fewest in the league. Their biggest problem when going on the road has been lack of scoring. They average just 2.2 goals per game on the road, tied for third fewest in the league. With Calgary doing such an excellent job at limiting shots, I don't see how the Blues score very many this afternoon.  So, not only does Calgary score the most goals per game at home, they also allow the fewest number of shots per game. That's a winning combination. And it's not like they need the home ice edge to dominate the Blues. Just last week, they won out in St. Louis, 7-2. That blowout victory saw the Flames score four times in the first period and never look back. They've lost back to back games since, but this is just the third time they've been on a losing streak of any kind all season. They've lost three in a row just one time and that was back in late October. 6* Calgary |
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12-18-18 | Jets -152 v. Kings | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -152 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
8* Winnipeg (10:35 ET): Two teams going in very different directions meet up here on Tuesday and those opposite directions happen to be quite indicative of the respective seasons that they are having. Winnipeg is one of the best teams in the league and certainly one of its hottest right now. The Jets have won five in a row and are 9-1 their last 10. As a result of that surge, they are now tied w/ Nashville atop the Central Division as well as Calgary for the most points in the Western Conference. On the flip side, the Kings are off an 0-4 road trip and there's a pretty clear argument to be made that they are the worst team in the entire NHL this season. This one is a no-brainer for me. The Kings have the fewest points in the league right now (25) and also the second worst goal differential -31. They were just beaten four straight times on the road, surrendering four goals in each of the L3 losses. In addition, it's not like the offense has been much help. The club ranks dead last in the league in goals per game at 2.18. Just to illustrate how bad the Kings have been offensively, the gap between them and the 30th ranked team in gpg (Anaheim) is as large as the gap between Anaheim and the 24th ranked team in scoring. That's going to be a major problem facing a Winnipeg side that is third in the league in scoring and averaging 5.4 goals in its L5 contests. While the Kings are back home, that won't be enough to counteract the cavernous gap in talent that exists between these two sides. Plus, the Jets have won their last five road games. Winnipeg is off a huge 5-4 OT win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. I'm not worried about any kind of letdown considering they are 12-5 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals the previous game. Making matters even worse is that LA goaltender Jonathan Quick has really struggled in his career vs. the Jets w/ a 3.02 GAA and .888 save percentage. Winnipeg is the only team in the league averaging more than three goals per game against Quick. The Jets previously beat the Kings in October, 2-1 w/ a 39-17 edge in shots. 8* Winnipeg |
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12-17-18 | Ducks v. Penguins -165 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): I was on the wrong side of Anaheim's previous game as they came back to beat Columbus in overtime, 2-1. But I remain highly skeptical of the Ducks' prospects, both in the short and long-term. Yes, they come into tonight's game at Pittsburgh having won eight of their last nine games. But they've also been winning in a very unsustainable fashion, often coming from behind. They were outshot 37-22 by the Blue Jackets on Saturday. For the season, only a few teams have spent more time trailing than have the Ducks. I like Pittsburgh at home here. The Penguins have posted B2B victories and now sit in a top three position in the Metro. Anaheim is third in the Pacific and has more points, but I don't think there's any debate as to whom the oddsmakers prefer in this matchup. Nor should their be. This is a good spot for the Pens, who are playing a third straight home game. They beat Boston 5-3 Friday (despite being outshot 51-28!) and then the Kings on Saturday, 4-3, despite again allowing a high number of shots. Anaheim has won five straight on the road - all against the East - but I see that streak coming to an end here. Pittsburgh now has two solid options between the pipes w/ the emergence of Casey DeSmith, who made 48 saves in the win over Boston. I also expect Matt Murray to start playing better as the season moves on. Anaheim has been totally riding its goaltending this year, but Ryan Miller is now out, leaving John Gibson to carry the load. Having two solid options in goal is a nice luxury to have and the Ducks no longer get to enjoy said luxury. They also are still 29th in the league in goals per game despite a couple of recent 6-goal efforts. It's time for Anaheim to start regressing, folks. 8* Pittsburgh |
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12-15-18 | Ducks v. Blue Jackets -171 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -171 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Columbus (7:05 ET): I don't see the Blue Jackets having much trouble at all with the Ducks tonight on home ice. I say that knowing full well that Anaheim has taken six of its last seven games, including B2B six-goal efforts. But this is a team that has succeeded on the back of its goaltending, which has performed at an unsustainable level. The Ducks had the best 5 on 5 save percentage in the league entering the week, but one of their netminders (Ryan Miller) is now out at least six weeks w/ a MCL sprain. Joining Miller on the injured list are center Rickard Rakell and defensemen Cam Fowler. This is a most inopportune time for the injury bug to hit as the Ducks are set to embark on their longest road trip of the year. My guess is we'll start to see them regress. Columbus is in a decent position after the first two months of the season. They are 2nd in the Metro, although a lot of hockey is still to be played. They're in the middle of a six-game homestand and need to start racking up more wins. The homestand started w/ a pair of losses, one of them to lowly Vancouver. But the Jackets bounced back Thursday w/ a convincing 4-1 win over the Kings. Tonight is also a revenge game as they lost out in Anaheim, 3-2, last month. Offensively, this is a deep team (12 players w/ at least 10 points), so it's no surprise they're 7th in the league in goals per game. But this play is more about fading Anaheim, who has been extremely lucky this season. When it comes to having the lead, the Ducks are near the bottom of the league in total time. They are 6-8-2 this year when down after two periods, which is the second most such wins. They added another Wednesday as they stormed back to beat Dallas 6-3. The team's last road trip (through the Southeast) went very well as they won four times as a ML dog of +160 or higher. But if you look at the way they continue to be priced, the oddsmakers are making it clear that they are NOT a believer. Nor am I. 10* Columbus |
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12-14-18 | Jets -134 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
8* Winnipeg (8:35 ET): I've made my view on Chicago pretty clear, so I have no issue backing a superior team like Winnipeg here even w/ the Jets off an OT win last night. We're used to talking about Chicago as one of the premier teams in the league, but they have fallen hard and fast and should now be in the discussion for worst team in the league. They have the second fewest points (25) and the worst goal differential (-31). Ironically, they're in a battle w/ the Kings in both categories, a team we also used to consider one of the league's best. My, how things can change. Meanwhile, Winnipeg is near the top of the league. Only one team has a better goal differential and that would be Tampa Bay, who I think is everyone's #1 team right now. The Jets are neck and neck with the Preds in the Central Division and a win here would put them in first place. So don't think they'll be lacking for motivation. Last night saw them down a red-hot Edmonton team, 5-4, which was an impressive win. It was their seventh win in the last eight games, which is a far cry from Chicago's recent performances. The Blackhawks have lost 8 of 9, the lone win coming Wednesday vs. Pittsburgh. While they were able to beat the Pens, don't count on Chicago winning two in a row as home underdogs. Winnipeg has already beaten them twice this year, scoring six times in both victories. The Blackhawks are 30th in the league in goals allowed and their special teams have been abysmal. They are dead last on the power play and third worst in penalty killing. It's been almost two months since Chicago won B2B games. They are 3-11 SU this year against teams w/ winning records while Winnipeg has feasted on lesser competition, going 14-4 SU against sub-.500 foes. 8* Winnipeg |
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12-14-18 | Capitals -127 v. Hurricanes | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:35 ET): This is a huge mismatch, in my opinion, and the money line simply does not reflect that. The defending Stanley Cup Champion Capitals may have the fewest points of any division leader currently (39), but they're still one of the top teams in the league and vastly superior to tonight's opponent. Carolina, as always, is really good at getting shots on goal, but not so much when it comes to actually finding the back of the net. The Canes have lost five of six, including a 6-4 loss last night at Montreal. Playing in the second night of a back to back is hardly ideal, given the opponent tonight. The Caps started the season slow, but have won 10 of the last 12 games. In their last eight games, they've scored four or more goals seven times. They're now 2nd in the league in scoring (3.7 goals per game), thus they've got to be "licking their chops" here in a matchup where Carolina simply isn't going to be able to "keep up." The Hurricanes are 30th in the league in goals per game, which is just stunning considering they average the most shots per game. Washington is deep. Not only is Alex Ovechkin working on 12-game point streak (had a hat trick in 6-2 win over Detroit Tuesday), but the team's 4th line has contributed 12 points of their own this month. Making matters worse for Carolina is that they had to place Jordan Staal on IR due to a concussion. As alluded to above, this is a tough back to back they're in after playing in Montreal last night. They gave up 40 shots on goal to the Habs and let's not forget this team is short-handed in goal right now. Curtis McElhinney has been their best goaltender, but is still listed as being day to day w/ a lower-body injury. Right now, it's undecided as to who will be between the pipes tonight, but neither Scott Darling or Petr Mrazek are having good years. 8* Washington |
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12-14-18 | Golden Knights -123 v. Devils | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
8* Vegas (7:05 ET): The Golden Knights have won 9 of their last 11 games and just started a four-game East Coast swing out on the right foot w/ a 3-2 win over the Islanders Wednesday. While we know this team has built a tremendous home ice advantage in less than two years of existence, I don't think tonight's road game will be too difficult. New Jersey currently sits at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and is last in the Eastern Conference w/ only 26 points. The Devils have won just once in their last nine games. They also may be w/o LW Taylor Hall, last season's league MVP. While the Devils could be w/o their best players, Vegas could be getting it's key offseason addition back on the ice. Paul Stasny has been out since October 8th, but skated at practice yday and has been pronounced as ready to play in a game. Even w/o him, the Knights have played really well of late. Despite only 17 shots on goal Wednesday, they were still able to pick up two points on the road, which is tough to do. They scored less a minute into the game via the power play. One thing they've done very well this year is beat up on lesser teams. The Knights' record vs. sub-.500 foes is 11-4 SU. Expect the number of shots on goal for Vegas to be much higher tonight. That should then lead to a big night against a Devils team that has surrendered an average of 4.6 goals its last five games. Goaltending has been generally abysmal for NJ this season, no matter who's between the pipes. It's expected to be Keith Kinkaid tonight and he has an .871 save percentage his L4 starts. Note the Devils only win in the L9 games came against Los Angeles, one of only two teams in the league w/ a fewer number of points. The Devils' record against teams w/ a winning record is just 3-9 so far. 8* Vegas |
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12-12-18 | Flyers v. Flames -157 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* Calgary (8:35 ET): Pardon the pun, but the Flames have been really hot of late. They've surged to the top of the Pacific Division by winning 9 of their last 12 games. They'd won five in a row before taking a 1-0 loss to rival Edmonton Sunday. Back on home ice, look for them to bounce back tonight against a Philadelphia side that has lost 7 of its last 10 games, including an ugly 7-1 defeat at the hands of Winnipeg their last time out. The Flames have had just two losing streaks all season, the last one coming in mid-November. Lay the price here. Calgary will be getting their captain, Mark Giordano, back tonight after he was forced to sit out the last two games due to a suspension. Still, even w/o Giordano, the Flames were able to down Nashville on Saturday, 5-2. They probably missed him in the 1-0 loss to Edmonton the following night, but that was on the road. Here at home, the team has gone 10-3-2 while averaging 4.2 goals per game. So its not like they're lacking in firepower. One thing that the Flames do really well is limit the number of shot attempts from their opponent. They allow just 28.0 per game, third lowest in the league. Goaltender Mike Smith has posted a .929 save percentage in his L4 starts. The Flyers have really struggled this year as their 27 points have them second from the bottom in the Metro. They rank near the bottom of the league in several statistics, most notably goals allowed. They're 29th, giving up 3.61 per game. That's trouble facing a team that is #2 in the league in goals scored at home. Also, Philly has terrible special teams. They are dead last in the league in penalty killing (71.7%) and 29th on the power play (13.6%). Note that Calgary is 4th in the league in goals allowed, so this shapes up as a total mismatch. None of the Flyers' goaltending options right now are particularly attractive. 8* Calgary |
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12-11-18 | Maple Leafs -124 v. Hurricanes | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Maple Leafs come into this game off back to back losses. First, they lost as massive ML favorites (-315!) at home to Detroit on Thursday (in overtime). Then came a 6-3 loss in Boston Saturday. As a result, they're rapidly falling behind red hot Tampa Bay as the gap has widened to eight points between the top two in the Atlantic Division. But this is a good team and I fully expect Toronto to turn things around. At no point this season have the Leafs dropped three in a row. They're 3-0 SU off B2B losses, winning two of those games by at least five goals. They've outscored the three opponents 15-2 in the situation and that includes wins at Winnipeg and Pittsburgh. Carolina comes into tonight w/ a major question mark in goal. Goaltending has long been a concern for this franchise, but picking up Curtis McElhinney off the "scrap heap" (right before the season started) turned into a godsend. Ironically, it was Toronto that had discarded him. McElhinney has a .920 save percentage in his L11 starts, easily the best on the team. But now he's injured, having suffered the dreaded "lower body injury" in practice. That means Scott Darling (.882 save percentage) will likely get the nod. Darling had been demoted to the AHL after no one wanted to claim him off waivers. Or it could be Petr Mrazek, who isn't a whole lot better (.899 save percentage). The Hurricanes beat Toronto earlier in the year, 5-2, but that was w/ McElhinney between the pipes. Without him, I worry about the Canes facing an opponent that ranks 2nd in the league in goals per game. Speaking of offense, Carolina has an issue there as well. Despite regularly outshooting their opponents, they average only 2.5 goals per game, which is 29th. Opposing goaltenders have posted a .934 save percentage against them this season. That tells me that while they're getting a lot of shots, most of them are not quality ones. Carolina has lost six of nine games against winning teams this season. 8* Toronto |
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12-08-18 | Golden Knights -140 v. Kings | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
8* Vegas (4:05 ET): These teams have not met since LY's playoffs when the Golden Knights delivered a shocking sweep of the Kings. Needless to say, they won't be meeting in the playoffs again this year. That's because it seems as if LA has never recovered from said sweep as they have fallen on some real hard times this year. At this point, I think it's very fair to call them the "worst team in the league" as they have the (very) unenviable distinction of having both the fewest points (21) and worst goal differential (-28). I expect Vegas to show their division rival no mercy Saturday afternoon. After its magical run to the Stanley Cup Finals a year ago (as an expansion team!), it was only logical for Vegas to slip a bit too. They probably won't be back in the Stanley Cup Finals again this year and maybe they don't even win the Pacific Division. But they're certainly playing like a playoff team right now w/ wins in seven of the last eight games. They just won as huge favorites on Thursday over another bad team, Chicago. Now that was at home where the Knights have always played better in their brief existence. But winning at the Staples Center shouldn't prove too difficult as two other road teams, Arizona and New Jersey, have already done so this week. Vegas has gotten 14 goals from 11 different players in its last four games. Meanwhile, the Kings are last in the league in scoring (2.1 goals per game) and really struggling offensively right now. They'd been held to two goals or fewer in five straight games before losing 6-3 to New Jersey on Thursday. But that's a Devils team that had conceded 28 goals in its previous six games, so I wouldn't look for the "offensive surge" to continue. Because this is the front end of a back to back, Vegas will likely opt to start Marc-Andre Fleury in goal tomorrow vs. Dallas. While Malcolm Subban has not started since 11/19, I think this is a good spot for him against the lowest scoring team in the league. 8* Vegas |
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12-07-18 | Hurricanes v. Ducks +100 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Anaheim (10:05 ET): I'm not entirely sure as to how GOOD of a team the Ducks are, but they're certainly a HOT one right now. I took them Wednesday, here at home, as my *10* Game of the Week. They won 4-2 over Chicago and have now won five in a row overall. Tonight, they welcome in Carolina and given the Ducks' recent form, the moneyline for this matchup surprises me. Anaheim may have its issues offensively, but the Hurricanes have actually scored a fewer number of goals on the season. Plus, the Ducks have beaten them five straight times, once earlier this season in Carolina. This is an easy call, given the price. The big key to the Ducks' success this year has been goaltending. They are 7th in goals allowed and have the best 5 vs 5 save percentage in the league currently. Both John Gibson and Ryan Miller have save percentages above .925, so we'll be fine w/ whomever is between the pipes tonight. Also, the offense has picked up a bit w/ 10 goals scored in the L2 games. Note that before beating Chicago on Wednesday, the team's last four wins had all come out on the road, two of them against Tampa Bay and Washington, the East's two division leaders. Another was at Carolina, 2-1, in overtime. Like I said earlier, that win makes the Ducks a perfect 5 for 5 vs. the 'Canes over the L3 seasons. Anaheim got off to decent start to the season before injuries took their toll and led to a seven-game losing streak. Clearly, they have turned things around. Meanwhile, Carolina is trending in a different direction. They've lost three straight, starting w/ the game vs. Anaheim. They've managed just two goals during the streak, which is bad news facing a stingy opponent like Anaheim. Tonight also marks the end of a three-game trek in Southern California, which is one of the toughest road trips in the league. After being shutout in LA Saturday, they lost to San Jose 5-1 on Wednesday. Over the L5 games, Carolina has just five goals. They typically have some of the worst goaltending in the league, so that's another edge for the home team in this one. 10* Anaheim |
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12-05-18 | Blackhawks v. Ducks -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Anaheim (10:35 ET): Guess what? I'm going to keep playing against Chicago! The oddsmakers have simply been too slow to react to just how bad the Blackhawks have gotten. Going back to November 23rd, I've played against this one-mighty franchise three times and come away w/ three wins. The latest was on Sunday as they fell 3-2 at home to Calgary. It was Chicago's fourth loss in a row overall as things continue to grow more dire by the day. The team is 3-12-3 overall in its last 18 games, dropped to 30th in goals allowed and special teams have been just horrendous w/ the 31st ranked power play and 29th ranked penalty kill. I see no evidence that a turnaround is forthcoming. They were outshot 41-24 by Calgary on Sunday. Making a Chicago turnaround even less likely here is the fact that Anaheim has won four in a row. All four of those Ducks wins were on the road too. Traditionally, this has always been a strong home team, although their record at "The Pond" this year is just 7-8 SU. But five of those eight losses have come beyond regulation, which is the most suffered by any team on home ice this season. In fact, only one other team has more than three. While still ranking near the bottom of the league in goals per game (30th), the Ducks did score six times in a win at Washington Sunday. That game saw them rally back from a 5-1 deficit, marking the 1st time in 20 seasons that any team in the league was able to win a game on the road in which it trailed by four or more goals. This is also a revenge game for Anaheim. Back when they were in the midst of a seven-game losing streak in late-October, they dropped a game in Chicago, 3-1. But unlike the Blackhawks, things have turned around for the Ducks. They've won six of the last seven games to move into second place in the Pacific Division. Their YTD goal differential (-13) still leaves a lot to be desired, but it's nowhere near as bad as Chicago, who is a league worst -27 in that department. On the road, the Blackhawks are giving up more than four goals per game this year and over the L5 games, they've allowed an average of 5.2. The Ducks are top 10 in goals allowed and simply a much better team at this point in time. 10* Anaheim |
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12-04-18 | Coyotes +105 v. Kings | Top | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
10* Arizona (10:35 ET): As recently as last year, a money line like this for a Coyotes-Kings matchup would be have been borderline unfathomable. Certainly, Los Angeles would have had far more respect from the oddsmakers and needless to say, I wouldn't even dream about taking the 'Yotes at this price on the road. But much has changed here in 2018-19. For starters, the Kings are terrible. I have them as one of the worst teams in the entire league, a distinction that can be confirmed by the fact they are currently tied for the fewest number of wins (9). They also have the second worst goal differential at -24. Meanwhile, Arizona is much improved. Most of that improvement is owed to the blue line and goaltending, which has gotten the job done whether at even strength or short-handed. The 'Yotes come into this game top five in the league in goals allowed and have the best penalty killing unit. That'll go a long way for a team that admittedly still struggles on the offensive end. The team has won three in a row, including beating Nashville and Minnesota on the road. There were no offensive struggles in the last game where they destroyed the Blues 6-1. I can't believe I'm saying this right now, but there actually is a viable path for Arizona to make the playoffs in a weak Pacific Division. The team did win four in a row earlier this season and now has a chance to produce a second win streak of 4+ games in the same season for the 1st time since 2011-12. We got a glimpse of the "old" Kings their last time out on the ice as they shutout Carolina 2-0 on Sunday. Jonathan Quick was back in goal and stopped all 34 shots he saw. Admittedly, injuries to Quick and #2 goalie Jack Campbell have - quite literally - hurt this club severely. However, it's not like Quick has been solid between the pipes this year. He carries a save percentage of just .888 into tonight's game. Arizona is dealing with its own set of injuries to its goaltending battery, but has gotten strong play out of backup Adin Hill, who has stopped 60 out of the 61 shots he's faced since being called into duty. The Kings had two shutout wins this season prior to Sunday and lost the next time out both times. 10* Arizona |
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12-04-18 | Senators +1.5 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Ottawa (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Senators at +1.5. Ottawa got off to a dreadful start to the year, but has somewhat turned things around recently w/ a three-game win streak. Meanwhile, Montreal's season has gone the opposite way. They started 4-1-1, but have begun to fade, losing six of their last seven games. The last three losses have all taken place here at home. So I certainly don't support the notion that they're likely to win here by more than one goal. These Canadian rivals share common opponents their last two games. Both beat the Rangers at home. But while Ottawa dominated San Jose on 12/1 (won 6-2), the Habs lost to the Sharks the following night by a score of 3-1. Again, take the +1.5. Tonight's game marks the front end of a home and home between these teams. Ottawa has admittedly not been sharp on the road this year where it is just 3-8-1 SU overall and giving up a frightening average of 5.1 goals per game. The Sens' biggest problem is that they allow far too many shots on goal. They are allowing the most per game in the league right now (37.9) and as a result are giving up the most goals per game (4.04) as well. But lately, they've been a lot better, giving up just five goals total in the L3 games. Credit is due to goalie Craig Anderson, who has made 63 saves on 65 shots the L2 games, including a shutout of the Rangers. He has a .933 save percentage his L4 starts as well. Montreal lost the first matchup w/ Ottawa this season, 4-3, twice blowing a two-goal advantage. That was on the road, but I'm not expecting any better from them at home. This is a team that's been held to two goals or fewer in five of its last six contests. Against San Jose on Sunday, they fell behind quickly and never recovered. Goaltending has been an issue for the Canadiens all season long w/ a collective save percentage of just .895. Not only have the Habs dropped 20 of their past 27 division games, but they have also lost four straight times when playing for a third time in a four-day span. That's the situation they find themselves in tonight. 8* Puck Line Ottawa (+1.5) |
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12-02-18 | Flames -140 v. Blackhawks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
8* Calgary (7:05 ET): Hey - let's keep playing against Chicago! The oddsmakers still haven't fully caught up to just how bad this once mighty team is. As a result, there's value in going against them - almost on a nightly basis - until further notice. The last time I played against the Blackhawks was on 11.27, hosting Vegas. They lost that game 8-3 and have since dropped two more, 6-5 at Winnipeg and 5-2 at Nashville. Now those were both road losses, against arguably the two top teams in the Western Conference. It's been just a BRUTAL schedule overall for the 'Hawks, who have lost five of six overall while also having faced Tampa Bay, Washington and Vegas. (The one win was here at home against a last-place Florida club). Tonight, Chicago hosts Calgary, a team I consider to be the best right now in a wide-open Pacific Division. The standings do too as the Flames lead the Pacific w/ 32 points and they have a +14 goal differential as well, easily tops in the division. They're off a 4-1 win over the last place Kings Friday night, a game which actually wasn't as easy as the final score indicates. Calgary scored three times in the third period w/ the go-ahead goal coming on the power play 7:44 into the third period. From there, they added two empty-net goals in the final minute. However, the Flames did enjoy a huge 37-14 edge in shots and really did dominate the game, particularly early and late. Though it was a product of two empty-net goals, the final score really was indicative of the Flames' level of dominance. Calgary has beaten Chicago four straight times, including a 5-3 win back on November 8th. That game saw the Flames enjoy an even more sizable edge in shots than they had over the Kings. They outshot the Blackhawks 41-15. I don't think they'll have much problem finding the back of the net in this rematch as Chicago has given up a frightening number of goals recently while the Flames are averaging 3.8 per game in their last five. As I've stated before, the Blackhawks rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed (30th) and their special teams have been a disaster. They have the 31st ranked power play (that's last) at 11.8 percent and are 30th in penalty killing (74.0%). 8* Calgary |
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12-01-18 | Golden Knights -116 v. Oilers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Vegas (10:05 ET): I'm going to keep riding the red hot Golden Knights, who have won fibe in a row overall, including two straight on the road. I've had them in each of those two road games, which were wins at Chicago (8-3) and Vancouver (4-3). Granted, neither of those are strong opponents. But neither really is Edmonton, who remains wildly overrated in the Connor McDavid era. The Oilers have won B2B games at home, but they lost here to Vegas a couple weeks ago while giving up six goals. The Golden Knights have been surging offensively ever since and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is also currently in fine form. During the five-game win streak, Vegas has outscored its opponents 23-8. That doesn't even include the 6-3 win here in Edmonton back on November 18th. Fleury has allowed only 11 total goals in his L6 starts (posted B2B shutouts last week) and the Oilers have been a favorite opponent of his through the years. He's 5-0 w/ a 1.77 GAA and .940 save percentage his L5 starts against them. Vegas is a team we all thought would regress this season. They very well still may and did get off to a slow start to the season. But there's no doubt that they're playing as well as any team in the league right now. That doesn't mean they'll win the Western Conference again like they did in their expansion year. But they are more than capable of beating a team like the Oilers. Edmonton has been better since a coaching change. They're 3-1-1 w/ Ken Hitchcock behind the bench, four of those five games decided by one goal. But a few one-goal victories aren't enough to alter my overall view of this team. They're only 26th in goals per game despite having McDavid. Ironically, they did take three of four games last year from the Golden Knights. But those results were not indicative of the respective seasons. I don't think the Oilers are any kind of "bad matchup" for the Knights. We saw that in the last meeting. Mikko Koskinen has definitely been a better option in goal than Cam Talbot (who Vegas scored on six times), but he alone can't turn the tide here. 10* Vegas |
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11-29-18 | Golden Knights -150 v. Canucks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
8* Vegas (10:05 ET): The Golden Knights have really started to turn things around with a four-game win streak that has seen dominant play at both ends of the ice. I was on them their last time out when they scored eight goals in a blowout of the lowly Blackhawks. That win followed B2B shutouts by goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. Of course, when you score 14 goals over a two-game stretch like Vegas has, then strong play between the pipes is just a luxury. But it's a nice luxury to have as you have to figure the Knights won't be able to score so many goals every game. A trip that started w/ a visit to Chicago should get even easier tonight as they're in Vancouver to face a Canucks team that's lost 9 of its last 10 games. I'll take Vegas again. Vancouver, like Vegas' previous opponent (Chicago) isn't a last place team. But both the Blackhawks and Canucks generally play like they belong in the basement of their respective divisions. The Canucks are coming off a home and home split w/ the Kings (who are in last place in the Pacific) as each team won at the other's rink. It was a 2-1 loss in overtime here in British Columbia for the Canucks on Tuesday. That game marked the return of Brock Boeser to the lineup (missed 11 games due to a groin injury), so it's disappointing that the Canucks were only able to pick up the loser's point. One area where this club continues to struggle is shot generation. They are 28th in the league, averaging only 28.4 shots per game. If Vancouver isn't getting many shots on goal, then obviously the game will be a lot simpler for the red-hot opposing goaltender they're facing tonight. Fluery went 150 minutes of ice time w/o allowing a goal before Chicago finally broke through on Tuesday. After being pretty dreadful on the road to start the season, Vegas has turned it around by winning three of their last four away from Sin City, twice scoring six or more goals. This is a revenge game for them as they lost as huge ML favorites (-300!) to the Canucks back in October, 3-2. The Knights have no problem getting the puck on net (4th in shots per game) and should win easily tonight. 8* Vegas |
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11-27-18 | Golden Knights -115 v. Blackhawks | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
8* Vegas (8:05 ET): The Golden Knights captured the hearts & minds of hockey fans everywhere last season by making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals in their very 1st year of existence. Regression was all but inevitable for 2018-19, though the club has started to turn things around by winning three straight games coming into Tuesday. The last two wins, both at home, were shutouts. In their admittedly brief existence, the Knights have always been a much better team when playing in Sin City ("Vegas flu" for opponents!). But I'll still back them on the road tonight as they're playing well and facing one of the league's worst teams. Calling Chicago "one of the league's worst teams" still doesn't feel right, but it's true. The Blackhawks just aren't very good right now as they rank 26th in the league in scoring and 27th in goals allowed. They have the league's worst power play percentage (12.7%). We're actually getting them off a win here, 5-4 over Florida, but that result actually works to our benefit considering it's been a month since the 'Hawks last won B2B games. They've gone just 3-8-3 since that time and having already fired their coach, one has to wonder what - if any - "tricks" are left up the sleeve. While Vegas has posted B2B shutouts, Chicago has allowed exactly 4 goals in three straight games. Even though they won on Saturday, the Blackhawks needed OT to do so after falling behind in an early 0-2 hole. They still gave up 38 shots on goal. After allowing 4+ goals the previous game, Chicago is just 4-9 SU this year. After scoring 4+ goals the previous game, they are 1-5 SU. Major edge in goal here for Vegas w/ Marc-Andre Fleury, who authored both shutouts and did so on consecutive nights (62 saves total). The Golden Knights also do a good job of not allowing many shots per game (just 27.2 for the year). They swept Chicago last season, winning three times and scoring 14 goals. Their record vs. losing teams this year is also 7-2 SU. I've been fading the Blackhawks regularly this year and have no hesitation to do so again Tuesday. 8* Vegas |
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11-23-18 | Canucks +1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Vancouver (9:05 ET): The Canucks are in a pretty bad way right now as they've dropped seven in a row. But four of those seven losses have come by just one goal, opening up the opportunity to exploit the puck line tonight. Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking Vancouver +1.5. I actually think there's a pretty good chance they pull the upset tonight in San Jose, but just to be careful we'll go w/ the added insurance of the PL. Six of the seven losses during Vancouver's current slide have come in regulation. But this was a team that also started the season a solid 10-6-1. They've had to play a lot on the road recently, many of the games coming out East. It's not like San Jose has been a favorite destination of theirs as they've lost five in a row here and are just 1-9 vs. the Sharks overall the L3 seasons. But San Jose has its own set of struggles going on right now. Coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday, I think this sets up as the perfect ambush spot for Vancouver. Remember, all we need is for them to be tied at the end of regulation. San Jose lost here at home to Edmonton Wednesday, 4-3. The Sharks might be closer to the top of the Pacific Division than the Canucks are, but the gap between the two teams is just four points. San Jose has given up at least four goals in three of its last four games. So expecting them to win by more than one goal seems like putting the "cart before the horse." The Sharks have just one win by more than one goal this month. They are 3-4 SU against teams w/ a losing record this year. 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5) |
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11-23-18 | Blackhawks v. Lightning -190 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
6* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): I like the chances of this game turning into a rout pretty quickly as the 15-6-1 Lightning host the 8-9-5 Blackhawks. This is a total mismatch with the Lightning rated #2 in my own power rankings while the Blackhawks are 31st (last!). The game takes place in Tampa Bay where the home team is a solid 8-3. The Lightning are the highest scoring team in the league right now (3.8 goals per game) while the Blackhawks are near the bottom (27th) at 2.6 per game. Having only won twice in November, I just don't see how Chicago competes here. Tampa Bay's scoring prowess was on full display Wednesday as they found the back of the net seven times against Florida. That was the first game since Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov were split up and put on different lines. The move worked with the duo combining for two goals and five assists. Individually, it was a season-high for points from Stamkos. Keep in mind that there wasn't much wrong with this team to begin with, so any tinkering is just "icing on the cake." At home this year, the Lightning average 4.3 goals per game. They simply have too much firepower for their opponent tonight. With #1 goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy out, you might normally think the Lightning could be susceptible to an upset here. But not against this Chicago team that has had all sorts of problems scoring recently. In the L6 games, the Blackhawks have scored just nine goals. As I suspected, a surprising coaching change (Joel Quenneville fired on November 6th) did little, if anything, to alter the trajectory of this team. Its issues go well beyond a simple lack of scoring as they also rank 26th in goals allowed. Quite frankly, there isn't really anything that the Blackhawks do particularly well. The Lightning already beat them 6-3 in the Windy City last month. At home, it should be even easier. 6* Tampa Bay |
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11-21-18 | Avalanche -110 v. Kings | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
8* Colorado (10:35 ET): I'm coming back with the Avalanche here as they remain one of the more underrated teams in the league. Tonight, they face a Kings club that is quite possibly the worst team in the league. Oddsmakers haven't quite caught up to how bad the Kings are yet as is evident by the money line here, which is essentially even. The Kings' 15 points are currently the fewest in the league and their -20 goal differential is the worst. They are off a win, 2-0 over St. Louis on Monday, so maybe that's where the value (on the opposite side) is coming from. Even though they are off that shutout win, it is worth noting the Kings are still operating w/ a third-string goaltender. There are only five teams in the league who currently have goal differentials of +10 or better. Four of them should not be a surprise, those being: Toronto (+21), Tampa Bay (+15), Nashville (+21) and Winnipeg (+13). I think that most consider those teams to be among the very best in the league. But the fifth best goal differential in league belongs to Colorado at +12. After a rough stretch to open November, the Avs have won three of their last four games, including the strong come from behind effort in Anaheim Monday. They were down 3-1 at one point, but won w/ just 1.3 seconds left in OT. While the game was close, they outshot the Ducks 42-33. This is the 3rd highest scoring team in the league w/ the two top point scorers in the league, Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov has a solid .926 save percentage. The Kings have lost their two top goalies for the foreseeable future w/ both Jonathan Quick and Jack Campbell not expected back anytime soon. So they've had to lean on Cal Peterson. He's made three starts and has a shockingly good .951 save percentage. But I wouldn't expect that to last. The two games LA has won w/ Peterson between the pipes were against Chicago and St. Louis, two not very good clubs. The game they lost was to Nashville, who scored five times. Peterson figures to be under fire again tonight and it doesn't help that the Kings are the worst offensive team in the league, both in terms of goals scored and power play percentage. 8* Colorado |
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11-18-18 | Avalanche -125 v. Ducks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:05 ET): The Avalanche were the biggest surprise in the entire league last year. After a historically inept 2016-17 campaign (only 48 points), they jumped all the way up to 95 points and a playoff berth. Such a one-year jump usually signals regression the following season, but the Avs started out 7-2-2. Since then, however, that inevitable regression seems to have taken hold. They are just 2-4-2 in their last eight games and coming off an overtime loss (at home) to Washington Friday. Four of their six losses have been by one goal however, so it's not like they haven't been competitive. Anaheim's season has mirrored the trajectory of Colorado's. The Ducks started strong 5-1-1 their last 7 games. But since then they've dropped 11 of 14. Two of the three wins came beyond regulation. Offense has been an issue here w/ the team ranking 30th in goals per game and the league's 27th ranked power play isn't exactly helping. The Ducks have scored just three goals in the last four games, excluding the shootout vs. Nashville. Usually one of the top teams in the Pacific, the Ducks are not a team I'm particularly high on right now. Phillip Grubauer will start in goal for Colorado tonight after stopping 26 of 29 shots against Washington Friday. His save percentage remains low and this will be justt the second time all year he's started two straight games. The other time resulted in a 3-1 win over Carolina. He shouldn't be tested much here from an Anaheim team averaging a league-low 26.3 shots per game. The Ducks also have issues at the other end of the ice right now with their top three defensemen all being rookies. They lost their top blue line player, Cam Fowler, to a facial fracture on Monday. 8* Colorado |
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11-17-18 | Blues +1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
8* Puck Line St. Louis (10:35 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line play only where I am backing St. Louis at +1.5. The Blues played last night and they're certainly hoping that what happens in Vegas does NOT have to stay in Vegas as they beat the Golden Knights 4-1. It was a dominant performance w/ a three-goal second period. It was their third time scoring 4 goals in the last five games and their only losses during that stretch both came by one goal each. Speaking of dominant performances, the Blues shutout the Sharks 4-0 back on November 9th. The Sharks are looking to rebound from a 5-3 loss to Toronto that occurred here at home Thursday. There's no shame in losing to a team as good as the Maple Leafs, but San Jose has to feel like they let one slip away given they scored three times in the 1st period and had 45 shots on goal for the game. One positive sign for the Sharks tonight is that they're 4-0 SU this season when off a loss by two or more goals. But I don't see them winning by multiple goals tonight. In fact, five of San Jose's last six wins have been by exactly one goal. Three of their last five losses have also been by one goal. I'll take either result here (or another Blues' blowout, obviously!). It would be easy to look at this matchup simply through the prism of the division standings. San Jose is in first place in the Pacific while St. Louis resides in the basement of the Central. However, the six point difference between the teams is a result of the Sharks having played three more games and they have three more wins. Also, I should point out that despite where they are in the standings, the Blues actually have the better season goal differential as they've outscored opponents while the Sharks have allowed the same exact number of goals (64) that they have scored. Since Jake Allen was in goal last night, that probably means Chad Johnson will start tonight and he was the one who authored the 4-0 shutout in the last meeting. Take the +1.5. 8* Puck Line St. Louis (+1.5) |
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11-14-18 | Blues +101 v. Blackhawks | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Only now (I think) are people starting to realize how bad the Blackhawks really are. I feel like I've been a bit "ahead of the curve" on this one, playing against them regularly in the first month of the season. The most recent time was actually two weeks ago to the day when I grabbed Vancouver at "plus money" (+123 on the ML) and came away w/ a 4-2 victory. At the time, it was the third straight loss suffered by Chicago. Well, two weeks later and they haven't won since w/ the losing streak now up to eight straight and counting. The firing of former HC Joel Quenneville has done nothing to alter the trajectory of this team. They're just bad. Despite Chicago's losing streak, they're actually still ahead of St. Louis in the Central Division. But by just one point. But digging deeper, you quickly uncover something important. The Blues may be a last place team, but at 6-6-3, they've actually outscored the opposition this year. The Blackhawks have a -16 goal differential. That is 2nd worst (Kings) in all of hockey. St. Louis has won 4 of 6, but does enter tonight off a loss, 3-2 to Minnesota on Sunday. They've had two days off to prepare for tonight's game and a big key is the Blues have only gotten to face two teams with losing records so far this season. They've won both games. This is actually already the fourth meeting between these teams this season. Chicago took the first two, both in overtime. St. Louis gained a measure of revenge on October 27th, winning 7-3 on home ice. That's the game that started the current slide for Chicago. Note that when the Blackhawks had a 2-0 lead Monday in Carolina, it was the first time they'd led since the coaching change. They obviously blew that lead (lost 3-2 in OT) and are now still searching for answers that may not come for awhile. St. Louis can score (4th in the league in goals per game), so like the last meeting (scored 7 goals) they should have their way w/ a Blackhawks club that is 30th in goals allowed. 10* St. Louis |
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11-13-18 | Maple Leafs -127 v. Kings | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10* Toronto (10:35 ET): It's taken some "getting used to," but I now view the Kings as one of the league's weaker teams. They currently reside in the basement of the Pacific Division (only 11 points) and have been outscored by 17 goals this season. That's the worst goal differential in the league right now. Those expecting any kind of turnaround will have to wait awhile longer as this visit from Toronto figures not to go very well considering the Maple Leafs will be looking to bounce back from a loss themselves. The ML favorite is being way undervalued here. It was bound to happen sooner rather than later and definitely on this challenging four-game trip. Toronto finally lost a road game on Saturday, coming up way short in a 5-1 final in Boston. The Leafs had won their first six road games to open the year and were the last unbeaten team on the road in the league. Like I just said, the road loss was bound to occur and I actually believe its a "good thing" to get it out of the way in the first game of the trip. No one wants to lose obviously, but I would have found it hard to believe to think the Leafs were going to sweep this trip. After tonight, they're in San Jose and Anaheim on Thursday and Friday, so this game sets up as the easiest of the entire trip. Toronto already beat the Kings, 4-1, back on October 15th. The Kings are last in the league in scoring right now, averaging just over 2.0 goals per game. That presents a massive edge for the Maple Leafs, who are top five in the league in scoring as well as top seven in goals allowed. LA has scored only one goal in its last two games as they simply aren't getting the puck on net very much anymore. They are near the bottom of the league in that department, which is an issue in a game where they'll likely need to score a lot just to keep up. Meanwhile, Toronto is a perfect 4-0 this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. Did I mention that the Kings are also now without their top two goaltenders, leaving either Peter Budaj or the completely untested Cal Peterson to start tonight between the pipes. The Kings have already made a change behind the bench this year (coaching change), so they're all out of tricks unfortunately. 10* Toronto |
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11-13-18 | Lightning -140 v. Sabres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Wrong place, wrong time for the Sabres, even on home ice. That's because TB is off a humiliating defeat its last time out, losing 6-4 to Ottawa as -320 home favorites. The last two times that the Lightning have been off a loss, they have rebounded by blowing out their next opponent. On October 30th, they destroyed New Jersey 8-3. Then, four days later, they won 4-1 at Montreal. In fact, they have yet to be beaten consecutive times so far this season. The Lightning still lead the Atlantic w/ 25 points and are the highest scoring team in the league. They should have little to no difficulty defeating a Buffalo team that I still think is getting too much hype. The Sabres have won their past two games by scoring 10 goals. But those wins came at the expense of Montreal and Vancouver, the latter occurring here at home. Tonight will obviously be a big step up in class in terms of opponent. I will admit that Buffalo has done an excellent job at getting the puck on net recently, which has led to plenty of goals scored. However, they were actually outshot by both the Habs and Canucks. Also, in each instance, the Sabres had to beyond regulation to get the two points. They won in OT and then a shootout and that's only after they tied both games late in regulation. Both of those wins could easily have been losses. Over the last three seasons, this team is 15-34 SU after scoring 4+ goals in its previous game. Tampa Bay is indeed tops in the league in goals per game w/ an average of 3.7. They've scored four or more in five consecutive games. Some of their biggest scoring efforts of the year have been off a loss. In the four previous games they've played off a loss, the Lightning have averaged a simply stunning 6.5 gpg, scoring 8 twice and 6 in another. So look for Sabres' goaltender Carter Hutton to be under siege tonight. I give the Lightning a big edge between the pipes w/ Andrei Vasilevskiy starting. He has a .934 save percentage on the road so far. 8* Tampa Bay |
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11-10-18 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Detroit (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking Detroit +1.5. It was a tough start to the season for this once proud franchise, but the Red Wings have started to turn things around with five wins in the last six games. Their only loss during that span came by a single goal. Here, they're matched up with a Carolina club that has been on an opposite trajectory in that they started the year strong, but have dropped five of six. They won Thursday night, 4-3 over Chicago, but have not won a game by more than one goal since 10/22 over ... Detroit. So this is a revenge game for the Red Wings to boot. Detroit is a young team, but they're starting to come together. Their last two wins have both come beyond regulation, but remember that getting to overtime is all we'd need for a winning ticket here. I was impressed by the way they came from behind to defeat the Rangers last night, winning 3-2 in OT after going into the final period trailing 2-0. Nearly one-third of the Red Wings' games this season have gone past regulation. Over the last five, they're averaging 3.6 goals per game, which is way up from how the started the year offensively. Another good sign is that the scoring is coming from multiple players. Carolina goaltenders have a terrible .873 save percentage at home this season. This will be the Hurricanes' first home game of November. It's a tough road trip that they are coming off of w/ games in Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis and Chicago. Ironically, the win over Chicago was the first time all season that the 'Canes had been outshot in a game all season. While Detroit may rank only 27th in the league in goals scored per game, Carolina isn't too far ahead at 26th. So this could very well be a low-scoring game, making the +1.5 all the more valuable. I just don't trust the Hurricanes' goaltending situation enough to think they'll be able to win this game by multiple goals. 8* Puck Line Detroit (+1.5) |
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11-08-18 | Canucks +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Vancouver (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Canucks +1.5. Despite losing in a shootout Tuesday night, Vancouver remains a pleasant surprise in this league. They are tied for 1st in the Pacific w/ 19 points and would be coming into this game on a four-game win streak had they not blown a 2-0 lead to Detroit. That's one more point than tonight's opponent, Boston, has and the Canucks also beat the Bruins back on October 20th, 2-1. I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-goal loss here. Vancouver had been a bit of a scoring machine recently, totaling 16 goals in a three-game win streak over Minnesota, Chicago and Colorado. All those games were at home. They began what will be a 6-game swing out East, Tuesday in Detroit, and it looked as if the scoring barrage would continue as they led 2-0 midway through the second period. But it was not to be. They allowed the Red Wings to answer w/ two of their own and then lost in a shootout. It will be tough cracking a Bruins team that is 2nd in the league in goals allowed. But the Canucks were able to win a low-scoring game at home and there's still plenty to be excited about with this team, namely rookie Elias Petterson and his 10 goals. Over its last four games, Boston has been shutout twice and won two games by a goal apiece. So the Puck Line seems like it could be a very useful tool tonight. Half of the Bruins' last eight contests have been decided by one goal, including the last one where they beat Dallas 2-1 in OT. They gave up a short-handed goal early in that contest, but were able to answer on a later power play w/ a goal of their own. Interesting that Boston is only 24th in goals per game despite having the 5th highest power play percentage in the league. That tells me that this is a team struggling to score when at even strength. I also don't think there's anyway that goalie Jaroslav Halak, who is likely to get the start tonight, can maintain his current hot streak (.962 save percentage L4 games). 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5) |
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11-06-18 | Canucks v. Red Wings OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
10* Over Canucks/Red Wings (7:35 ET): Two bad teams here, though both have recently shown signs of busting out of the doldrums. In the case of Vancouver, they've won three straight, including a 7-6 win at home over Colorado on Friday. Detroit also enjoyed a three-game win streak, that was until they ran into Edmonton on Saturday and lost 4-3. Both teams have gone Over in each of their L3 games and rank in the bottom 10 in the league in goals allowed. Therefore, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair this evening in the Motor City. Take the Over. All of Vancouver's last seven games have seen no fewer than five total goals scored. The last one was obviously the highest scoring of the bunch as they outlasted the Avs in overtime, a game which saw 13 total goals scored. There were seven goals scored in the second period alone. It was the Canucks' third straight game scoring four or more goals as rookie Elias Pettersson (NHL's Rookie of the Month) continues to lead the way. Pettersson had five points against Colorado (2 goals, 3 assists), including the tying goal that sent the game into OT. Vancouver is 4-1 Over this year after scoring 4+ goals in its previous game. Detroit ranks 27th in the league in goals allowed. They started the year w/ just one win in the first 10 games. But offense keyed a brief turnaround w/ the team scoring 4 or more goals in three consecutive victories. Then came the 4-3 loss to Edmonton on Saturday. The Red Wings gave up 42 shots on goal in that one, which is obviously a lot. I'm not too confident in the goaltending situation on either side as Vancouver's Jacob Markstrom comes in w/ an .883 save percentage on the road and Detroit's Jimmy Howard has struggled all season. 10* Over Canucks/Red Wings |
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11-05-18 | Oilers v. Capitals -145 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Even though they've lost back to back games (and 3 of their last 4), I still think there's plenty of reason to like the Stanley Cup Champs tonight on home ice. First off, it's hard for me to see them dropping two straight at home. After rallying back from an early 2-0 hole, they fell to Dallas in overtime on Saturday. But even w/ that setback - and overall slow start to the season - the Capitals are still leading the league in scoring and have the top power play. Furthermore, they also have revenge on their minds tonight for a 4-1 loss up in Edmonton last week. My money is on the Caps bouncing back here. The Oilers have won 5 of 6, including two straight. They've turned in B2B four-goal efforts, but those came against Chicago and Detroit, two of the worst teams in the league. While they did just beat the Capitals at home, doing so on the road will prove a lot more challenging. Edmonton's strong start to the year (8-4-1 through 13 games) is a little head-scratching when you look at the statistics, all of which are fairly mediocre. Six of their last nine games were at home, though they won all three on the road. But the fact that the Oilers rank 26th in penalty killing should come back to bite them facing the league's top power play. Shots were actually dead even in the first meeting between the teams (32 apiece), but a key was Washington getting only one PP opportunity and failing to convert. The Capitals have four of the league's top seven players in PP points w/ Evgeny Kuznetsov leading the league w/ five goals. Again, they should have the edge here against a weak Edmonton PK unit. The Caps are also averaging 4.33 goals per game at home, so it's really going to be difficult for the Oilers to hold them to one goal again. All four goals Washington allowed in the loss to Dallas Saturday were off turnovers, which is an easy problem to correct. The Oilers have won five straight road games, but I see that streak coming to an end tonight. 8* Washington |
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11-03-18 | Blue Jackets -114 v. Kings | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
10* Columbus (10:35 ET): I'm not used to seeing the Kings struggle the way they are right now, but unpacking the numbers reveals things are just as a bad as the look. The club has dropped seven of eight w/ its lone win during that stretch coming against the lowly Rangers. That one win is the only time in those eight games that the Kings have scored more than two goals. As a result, the team currently ranks dead last in the league in scoring at just 2.0 goals per game. They have the worst goal differential (-20) in the league as well. Usually, you could count on LA for being one of the top defensive teams, but that's not the case this year as they're 26th in goals allowed. Jonathan Quick is hurt and they've allowed 4+ goals in seven of those last eight games (again, the win being the exception). That's a real bad stretch of hockey we're talking about here, and unfortunately it's going to get worse before it gets better. Columbus hasn't exactly been stingy between the pipes either. Sergei Bobrovsky and Joonas Korpisalo have combined for an .888 save percentage, but the former turned away 44 shots in a 4-1 win over San Jose Thursday. It was the first time all year that the Blue Jackets allowed fewer than two goals in a game. Matched up w/ the lowest scoring team in the league, I see them making it two straight. Columbus has won three of four overall w/ 19 goals scored. The Blue Jackets are one of the highest scoring teams in the league so far (5th) at 3.6 goals per game and they've been real "road warriors" as well, averaging 4.2 gpg. As a result, their record is 4-1 outside of Ohio. Quick's injury is a real killer for the Kings, who now have to rely on backup Jack Campbell, who has allowed 10 goals on 96 shots faced here at home. The Kings did sweep last season's two matchups with the Blue Jackets, but both saw Quick in goal. They also scored 11 times on Columbus, a pace they are not going to maintain tonight. The fact that Columbus is 5th in goals per game despite a subpar power play is pretty impressive. It sounds strange to say, but the Kings are at the bottom of the league right now and absolutely one of the worst teams. This should be an easy two points for the visitors Saturday night. 10* Columbus |
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11-01-18 | Capitals -119 v. Canadiens | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:35 ET): Good price on the Stanley Cup Champs here, as they're playing on the road. It's been a bit of a Cup "hangover" in the early going for the Caps, as they're just 5-3-2 their first 10 games, but I have no doubt as to this club being able to make its annual move to the top of the Metro. Here, they're faced w/ a Montreal team that is a somewhat surprising 6-3-2 thus far. I came into the year thinking that the Habs would be improved, but not to this degree. The key here is Washington has been off for four days, meaning they'll be quite fresh when they hit the ice tonight. They've also had the Habs' number in recent years, especially here in Montreal. The Canadiens did take a dive in their last game, losing here at home to Dallas by a score of 4-1. That had to be a frustrating result considering they outshot the Stars 35-22. But the Habs couldn't convert on a penalty shot nor could they get much going offensively against a hot goaltender. Now Washington's goaltending has been quite suspect so far, but the issue is will the Canadiens be able to keep up with the Capitals' scoring. The Caps come into tonight ranked 2nd in the league in goals per game and they also have the top power play. Alex Ovechkin has 49 points in 46 career games vs. Montreal. That's a big reason why the Caps have won 28 of their previous 41 visits to the Bell Centre, including all three the last two seasons. There are two key trends working in Washington's favor here. One is that they are a perfect 3-0 this season when playing w/ three or more days rest. As mentioned above, they've now been off for four days since beating Calgary 4-3 on Saturday (I was on them there, too!). Secondly, they are a remarkable 16-3 SU coming off three consecutive road games. It's pretty stunning to see that the Caps have not won B2B games this season. That streak comes to an end here as Montreal might be improved, but they're not yet at the level of the defending Stanley Cup Champions. 10* Washington |
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10-31-18 | Blackhawks v. Canucks +122 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 122 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
8* Vancouver (10:05 ET): My read on the Blackhawks this year is that this is a team living off past reputation. Certainly, no one saw last year's last place finish in the Central coming, but the 2018-19 season doesn't seem to be a whole lot more promising. They come to Vancouver tonight off B2B losses, one of them on the road (St. Louis) where they gave up seven goals. Last time out, they fell at home, 2-1 to the Oilers. That one went to OT as Chicago is now 3-3 in games that go past regulation. Their only goal came from a power play which still ranks 30th in the league (12.2%). This is a good price to fade the Blackhawks, in my opinion. Vancouver has battled through a number of injuries to start the season a respectable 7-6. They are actually just one point out of first place in the Pacific. So a win tonight and they'll be in first place by their lonesome! The team is off a 5-2 win over Minnesota on Monday (here at home), but of course it came w/ a price as center Brandon Sutter was lost to a shoulder injury and could be out for "weeks." Sutter joins a number of fellow Canucks on the injury list, but the five goal effort from two nights ago tells me this group is still ready to compete. Jacob Markstrom has a respectable .929 save percentage his L4 starts for the Canucks, so I look for them to have the edge in goal in this one. Chicago's cummulative save percentage for the year is still below .900, which isn't good news. Obviously, the defensive effort vs. St. Louis (where they allowed 7 goals) was terrible. While it was better against the Oilers, the team is still 24th in the league in goals allowed. Incredibly, the Blackhawks are just 19-45 their previous 64 Western Conference games. They are also 7-23 their L30 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Canucks are 3-2 on home ice. 8* Vancouver |
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10-29-18 | Flames v. Maple Leafs -143 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -143 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): I've played against Calgary each of their last two games. Both plays turned out to be winners. What's bad for the Flames is that both of those losses occurred at home. The first was downright embarrassing as they were beaten 9-1 by Pittsburgh. Then came a 4-3 loss to Washington. The club has now dropped three in a row overall and things get no easier Monday as they make the cross-country trip to Toronto. At 8-3, the Maple Leafs are off to a really strong start and their 16 points are currently tied for most in the league. I'll play against Calgary yet again! Considering the respective form of the two clubs, you might be wondering why we're able to get the Leafs at such an affordable price, on home ice no less. Well, star Auston Matthews is going to have to sit this one out due to a shoulder injury sustained in Saturday's come from behind win over Winnipeg. Matthews, who has 10 goals and six assists, has clearly been the driving force behind his team ranking 3rd in the league in goals per game (also #2 on the power play). But Toronto has been able to win w/o him before as they were 11-7-2 in the 20 games he missed last season. Note that they were able beat Winnipeg despite no points from Matthews. This team has enough scoring options and I believe this ML is an overreaction by the oddsmakers. One player, even one of Matthews' caliber, should not make that big of a difference. Toronto should still be able to score plenty against Calgary's suspect goaltending. The Flames come into tonight w/ a woeful .885 save percentage and are 22nd in the league in goals allowed per game. They were fortunate to salvage a point against Washington as they tied the game up at the end of regulation by pulling the goalie in favor of an extra attacker. But they still lost in a shootout. Speaking of losing, that's primarily what the Flames have done here in Toronto through the year as they've lost 16 of their last 19 visits. 8* Toronto |
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10-27-18 | Capitals -101 v. Flames | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
8* Washington (4:05 ET): Back on Thursday, I played on one of these teams and against the other. I split the pair as Washington failed to get the job in Edmonton, but Calgary was an easy fade as they went down 9-1 at the hands of Pittsburgh. My respective reads on the teams certainly haven't changed in the last 48 hours, so I'll again be backing the Caps in Alberta Saturday afternoon. Considering how badly the Flames were just beaten, I think this is an outstanding value. Seeing the Caps get held to one goal Thursday night was definitely shocking. There had been only one time previous this year where they'd failed to score multiple goals and that was an embarrassing 6-0 shutout against the Devils on 10.11. The good news is that the Stanley Cup Champs typically bounce back after a poor offensive performance. Over the L3 seasons, they have gone 26-8 SU after scoring 1 goal or less the previous game. As a reminder, they rank 2nd in the league in goals per game currently and 1st on the power play. Calgary is certainly the ideal opponent for the Capitals' offense to get back on track. Thursday's 9-1 defeat at the hands of the Penguins was "all-time bad" in my eyes as the goaltending continues to be just horrible here. Mike Smith let in six of the nine goals, on just 21 shots. Backup David Rittich was no better, allowing three goals on just 15 shots. The Flames' collective save percentage for the year is now down to .882. Thursday was the fifth time this year that Calgary gave up 4+ goals. While they are 4-0 after the previous four times doing so, I believe that trend comes to an end Saturday afternoon against a superior opponent. 8* Washington |
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10-25-18 | Capitals -119 v. Oilers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Washington (9:05 ET): Edmonton will be a desperate team Thursday night as they look to avoid dropping a third straight home game. But desperation alone cannot carry them past the Stanley Cup Champions, unfortunately. While the Capitals have had their issues keeping the puck out of the back of the net at times, they've had no problem scoring themselves this season. Five times they've scored five or more goals in a game, including each of the last two. They're coming off a 5-2 win in Vancouver and should get two more points here as they continue their trek across Canada. Edmonton is off an overtime loss to the Penguins. They went down by a score of 6-5, a game in which they outshot the opponent 46-31. Still, I suppose that was an improvement from being shutout by Nashville the previous game. What a tough stretch this has been for the Oilers having to play three of the league's top teams in a row. Saturday night, they'll be in Nashville. Despite all the hype that surrounds this team, I just don't think they're "there" yet ("there" meaning ready to successfully compete w/ the league's elite). If I'm Edmonton, I'd be especially concerned w/ goalie Cam Talbot facing the Caps as he's already given up eight goals his last two starts. Surprisingly, Washington has yet to post B2B victories this season. That'll change after tonight. This team is just too talented to go too long w/o consecutive victories. They are #1 in the league in scoring (4.3 goals per game) and also have the #1 power play (38.7 percent). That's too much for the Oilers, who rank in the bottom third of the league in both goals scored and allowed. 8* Washington |
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10-25-18 | Penguins +103 v. Flames | Top | 9-1 | Win | 103 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (9:05 ET): Calgary sure seems to be a getting a lot of respect here. I know it's a home game, but even so, I certainly do not see them as being on the same level as Pittsburgh. The Penguins have started a four city Canadian trek by winning in Toronto (3-0) and Edmonton (6-5). Tonight, they go for B2B wins in Alberta and I believe the two points are for the taking considering how many shots on goal the Flames have allowed recently. Look for the Pens' offense to carry them to another victory. Sidney Crosby had one for the highlight reel Tuesday night in Edmonton as he scored the game winner in overtime. "It's probably been a while since I've had a nice one like that. I'll take it," Crosby said. Something that the team will gladly "take" is that number of shots allowed by Calgary the last two games. Poor goaltender Dave Rittich has been under siege worse than Steven Seagal, having to make 81 saves. Make 44 saves was enough to beat the Rangers 4-1 on Sunday, but he could "only" stop 37 of the 40 shots he saw vs. Montreal Tuesday and that led to a 3-2 loss. Pittsburgh, as per usual, ranks near the top of the league (3rd) in goals per game w/ 3.7. Look for them to take advantage of the Flames' "leaky" defense. While this is Pittsburgh's third consecutive road game and second in three nights, they had plenty of time off in between the win in Toronto and win in Edmonton. Calgary is playing for a third time in five days, so they could actually be the side where fatigue is a factor. I'm not concerned about Pittsburgh allowing five goals in that last game as their record when allowing 4+ goals the previous game is 54-24 the L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh |
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10-24-18 | Maple Leafs v. Jets -115 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): The nation of Canada has infamously gone a quarter century w/o one of its NHL franchises hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup. These two teams are looking to end that long drought. Toronto is among the teams tied atop the Atlantic Division w/ 12 points, though they have lost B2B games. Winnipeg has also won 6 of its 9 games this season, though unlike the Maple Leafs not all the losses came in regulation. They come into Wednesday as the hotter team having won three straight, all here in Manitoba. I'll look for the Jets to keep the win streak going tonight. Something is going to have to give tonight as the Jets are 5-0-1 SU here at Bell MTS Place, but the Leafs are 4-0 SU on the road. Those records are anything but phony too. Winnipeg is outscoring its visitors by more than a full goal per game while Toronto is averaging an amazing 5.7 gpg in those four road wins. There's obviously no way the Leafs can maintain that average moving forward. Somewhat of a "cooling off" process has already started to set in as they've totaled just one goal in the last two games, though both of those losses were at home. They were outscored 7-1 by the Penguins and Blues, not a good sign when getting set to face a team that is 14-0-1 its L15 regular season home games, dating back to last season. Since the beginning of last year, the Jets have the best home record in the league. Now it looked as if the Jets might lose one here at home Monday as they were down 3-1 in the third period to St. Louis. But they overcame that deficit and won in overtime. While a close call, it was still a far preferable result to what Toronto did against St. Louis. The Leafs did win here last season, by a shocking score of 7-2, but I'm sure the Jets haven't forgotten. I felt Toronto was a little overrated coming into the season while Winnipeg is definitely on my short list of Cup contenders. 10* Winnipeg |
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10-23-18 | Panthers -120 v. Rangers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10* Florida (7:05 ET): Two of this year's slowest starters meet Tuesday in MSG w/ the Rangers hosting the Panthers. The Rangers have dropped six of eight to start the season while Florida has only one win in six games. However, when looking at goal differential, one team appears to have a significant advantage in tonight's contest. The Rangers have been outscored by nine goals in eight games while the Panthers have only been outscored by four in six. The Panthers have had some bad luck w/ three losses occurring either in overtime or a shootout. Every one of their games so far has been decided by a one-goal margin. With an interesting goaltending matchup tonight, I believe the Panthers are poised to break through w/ a major victory. After finally winning a game on Friday, the Panthers returned home to play the league's last remaining winless team, Detroit. They lost that game, in overtime, 4-3 on Saturday. This despite having a 2-0 lead at the end of the first period and outshooting the Red Wings 37-31. After that embarrassing defeat, I think Florida will come out "ready to go" tonight. It appears that they will be giving Michael Hutchinson the start in goal. While he's struggled in two previous starts, I don't think the Rangers should be much of a concern considering they only rank 26th in goals per game. You would think that the Rangers would go w/ Henrik Lundqvist in this spot, but instead it appears as if the less proven Alexandar Georgiev will get the call between the pipes. Important to note that either way, this play still stands. But if the reports of Georgiev starting are true, then I REALLY like our chances. Georgiev's only previous start saw him surrender seven goals. Florida has won three straight times here in MSG and I look for them to keep that streak alive Tuesday night. 10* Florida |
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10-21-18 | Sabres v. Ducks -152 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
8* Anaheim (8:05 ET): Both teams find themselves in the second game of a back to back, but the situation is far better for the Ducks, who also happen to be the better team. Buffalo won last night, 5-1 in LA, but I am highly skeptical of all the preseason "love" this team got as a potential darkhorse. I still rank them among the weakest teams in the league. Tonight marks the end of a five-game West Coast swing for them. Meanwhile, Anaheim returns home angry off a 3-1 loss in Vegas last night. They're the better team and will assert themselves on home ice. The Ducks were outshot by a wide margin last night, 45-18. But one thing you have to like about this team is that they are #2 in the league in goals allowed per game at just 2.1. Just one time this year have they given up more than three goals in a game. That was a 5-3 loss at Dallas and they came back the following night to win 3-2 in St. Louis. Ryan Miller started that game vs. the Blues and stopped 29 of 31 shots. This being another back to back, Miller is likely to get the call to start between the pipes tonight. I'd expect him to be highly motivated facing his former team. So should the rest of the Ducks - and the fans for that matter - as all-time great Paul Kariya will have his number retired. Anaheim is 28-10-6 at the Pond since the start of last season. Buffalo has yet to play a back to back this season. Doing so for the first time at the end of a long road trip is hardly ideal. Especially w/ the Sabres likely to have to call on the struggling Carter Hutton in goal. They have lost three straight Hutton starts, not only due to scoring just one goal in all three games, but also Hutton has allowed 13 goals on 96 shots (.865 save percentage). Hutton has also typically struggled against the Ducks in his career w/ an .888 save percentage and 3.00 goals against average. I just can't see the lowly Sabres winning on the road in consecutive nights. They are only 11-24 SU w/o rest the L2 seasons and 8-24 SU off a win by 2+ goals. They are 12-31 SU after scoring 4 or more goals their previous game. 8* Anaheim |
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10-20-18 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets -160 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
8* Columbus (7:05 ET): The Blackhawks seem to be living off reputation as I think they have even less of a chance to win tonight in Columbus than the oddsmakers do. This is a team that just lost 4-1, at home, to Arizona the other night. That was their third loss in four games and the first time all season that they didn't have to go past regulation. While the Blackhawks had done plenty of scoring this year leading up to the loss to the 'Yotes, they certainly haven't done much else well. They rank 29th (third worst) in goals allowed and special teams play has been dreadful w/ the power play ranking 28th and penalty killing ranking 30th. I like they're in for a long night here. Columbus is off an impressive 6-3 win over Philadelphia and has scored five or more goals in each of its last three victories. Prior to beating the Flyers, they'd been embarrassed in an 8-2 loss at Tampa Bay. But they got four days off to recover and played like after somewhat of a slow start. Here, they had only one day off between games, but I don't think that matters considering what a strong team they've been on home ice the past couple seasons. Last year saw them go 26-12-3 during the regular season here at Nationwide Arena. That included a 3-2 win over Chicago. The Blackhawks did win their first two games this season, but those games were at Ottawa and St. Louis. They've since lost at Minnesota. Corey Crawford is back between the pipes, which is a nice story. But after missing so much time, it'll be awhile before he's back to being an effective netminder, if that even happens. I really like the price on the Blue Jackets here as the Blackhawks are playing their third road game in four nights and will struggle to stop C-bus from scoring. Chalk up two more points for the home team. 8* Columbus |
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10-18-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* Puck Line Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line play only where I am taking the Lightning at -1.5. Detroit remains the lone winless team in the league with four of the six losses coming in regulation. Their -16 goal differential is easily a league worst and unfortunately for them the task gets no easier tonight as they're in Tampa Bay. The Lightning have absolutely owned the Red Wings in recent years, taking all nine meetings since the start of the 2015-16 season. As you can tell from the money line, this is a total mismatch and thus I have no problem calling for Tampa Bay to win this one by multiple goals. They've also played only four games to Detroit's six. Furthermore, the schedule has set up nicely for the Lightning in the early part of the season. Not only have they only played four times so far (tied for fewest number of games played), but they have yet to leave home ice! They did suffer a rather shocking 4-1 loss to Vancouver back on 10.11, but that came after a long layoff. Here, we find them two days removed from a 4-2 win over Carolina. That was led by a Tyler Johnson hat trick, one of his goals coming short-handed. The Lightning have quite the PK unit thus far, having killed off all 18 opposing power plays! What's really scary about this team is that it's off to fast start despite minimal contributions from both Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Just imagine when those two superstars get going. Meanwhile, there are few positives to talk about w/ this Detroit club, which has been trending downward for a couple seasons. This season could very well be rock bottom as they've been outscored 30-14 in six games. Tonght will be their third consecutive road game after losses at Boston (8-2) and Montreal (7-3). As nice as the Lightning's early-season schedule has been, the Red Wings' has been equally as difficult. They've only gotten to play twice at home and this will be the 5th road game in 11 days. I have no idea how they're going to stop the high-scoring Lightning as goalies Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier have combined for a woeful .850 save percentage. Tampa Bay's save percentage (.937) is at the top of the league w/ likely starter Andrei Vasilevskiy having stopped 96 of the 101 shots he's faced thus far. The Lightning win big here. 10* Puck Line Tampa Bay (-1.5) |
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10-16-18 | Sabres v. Golden Knights -185 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
6* Vegas (10:05 ET): There weren't many better stories in all sports last year than what happened in Vegas with the expansion Golden Knights, who rode an incredible home record right into the Stanley Cup Finals. No one saw that coming and predictably everyone is predicting the Knights to take a bit of a fall in their second season of existence. So far, those people been correct as the team has started 2-4. But they've played only one home game. While it was a loss (5-2 to Philadelphia in the season opener), I expect a much different result tonight hosting Buffalo. While Vegas has played almost all road games, it's been just the opposite for Buffalo, who started the year with four straight home games. They split the quartet, but the one to focus on here was a 4-2 win over Vegas. That makes this an early season revenge game for the Golden Knights, who actually outshot the Sabres pretty dramatically on October 8th. It was a 37-17 edge, so the 4-2 loss is surprising. Buffalo had also been outshot in all three periods of their previous win. "We weren't mentally sharp," Golden Knights coach Gerard Gallant said of the loss. "There were mental lapses in the D-zone and a guy left wide open. You couldn't blame (goalie) Fleury on any of the goals." Buffalo opened this road trip w/ a 3-0 win over Arizona, yet another game where they were outshot pretty dramatically (36-23). They were also off a win the last time they met Vegas, but are still just 8-23 SU the L3 seasons when off a win by 2+ goals. Obviously, this game taking place in "Sin City" and not upstate New York is pretty significant. The Golden Knights were 29-10-2 SU at home last year. They need to turn it around offensively as they come into tonight ranked 29th in goals per game. But they averaged 3.5 gpg at home last year, so that turnaround should come here against a Buffalo team that is giving up a lot of shots in the early going this season (34.6 per game). 6* Vegas |
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10-15-18 | Stars -155 v. Senators | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:35 ET): Ottawa pulled an upset Saturday afternoon, beating the Kings here at home by a score of 5-1. That certainly surprised me as I had the Kings. It was also a departure from recent Senators performances which had seen them give up 13 goals in the previous two games. I don't see them pulling two upsets in a row as they're still being outshot rather significantly, by an average of 38.4 to 27.4 per game. The Sens still are a bottom of the barrell team to me. Dallas has started its season 3-1 w/ all four games coming at home. They've scored 14 goals in the L3 games alone, so look for them to find the back of the net early and often tonight. They are averaging 36.2 shots per game, so they should have plenty of opportunities. Though it's a non-conference game, the Stars should be highly motivated as they are coming in w/ substantial revenge. They have lost all four times they've played Ottawa the past two years. Ottawa is a young team with a lot of fresh faces. While they certainly played well against the Kings on Saturday, such a performance will not be the norm this season. Goaltending also looks like it will be an issue. That's not a good thing when facing a team like the Stars, who scored four times in a six-minute span against Anaheim on Saturday. They outshot the Ducks 30-4 in the second period! Dallas also has the league's top power play, which is converting a ridiculous 54.5% of the time. 8* Dallas |
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10-13-18 | Kings -144 v. Senators | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -144 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
8* Los Angeles (2:05 ET): I'm expecting the Kings to score plenty in this Saturday afternoon matinee. They're playing the Senators, who have given up 13 goals in just the last two games. LA is off a shutout win, 3-0 over Montreal, with Jack Campbell turning in his first career shutout (40 saves). Campbell is now the "go to guy" between the pipes as Jonathan Quick is dealing w/ a lower body injury. That's no problem as Campbell has allowed just four goals in three games so far, turning in a .966 save percentage. The Kings typically do a great job at possessing the puck and should have little difficulty winning at Ottawa this afternoon. The Senators are in rough shape right now and I'm not just talking about the 13 goals allowed in the past two games. The injury bug has bit them hard as three key contributors are slated to miss today's game. One is top scoring winger Ryan Dzingel. Rookie Alex Formenton and defenseman Cody Ceci will be joining Dzingel on the bench. The injury situation is so bad here that they may have to go w/ 11 forwards and seven defensemen. Of course, the number of goals allowed is just as large a problem and doesn't figure to subside as long as Craig Anderson keeps getting the call. Anderson has some truly horrific numbers thus far w/ an .895 save percentage and 4.35 goals against average. LA will be looking to win B2B games for the 1st time this season and this is an ideal opponent. This is a team that's failed to record a point in only one game and that was at Winnipeg, which is a hard place to play. The Kings obviously have a huge edge in goal for this matchup and I can see this being the spot where they finally get their 26th ranked power play going. The Sens are only 1-11 SU at home the L3 seasons in games where they total is 6 or higher. 8* Los Angeles |
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10-11-18 | Sharks -150 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
8* San Jose (7:05 ET): The Rangers have been as "bad as advertised" thus far as they are 0-3 and off an embarrassing 8-5 loss at Carolina. This is a total rebuilding year in MSG w/ the Blueshirts projected by many to finish either at or near the bottom in the Metro. Taking the ice w/ three days rest tonight sounds nice on paper, but the reality is the team is just 4-8 SU when it that role the previous two seasons. They welcome in a San Jose team that just SCORED eight times in its last game, a rout of Philadelphia on the road. The Sharks have alternated losses and wins through four games so far, but I have them winning B2B times for the first time this season here. In a wide open Pacific Division, I would not be surprised to see the Sharks swim to the top. They get a full season of Evander Kane (acquired at trade deadline LY) this year and signed Erik Karlsson in the offseason. Their top two lines up front are strong and Karlsson and Brett Burns form a formidable blue line. Martin Jones is off to a bit of a rough start in goal, but we should start to see things turn around for him. San Jose has been outshooting its opponents by a pretty wide margin thus far, by an average of 37.2 to 24.7 per game. That's one of the widest margins in the league right now. Even when they were shutout Monday in New York, they managed 35 shots on goal. They followed that up w/ the eight goal effort in Philly as 13 different players registered a point. Meanwhile, there's no sugarcoating how ugly it got for the Rangers down in Carolina Sunday. They gave up eight goals on 40 shots. That was all on backup goalie Alexandar Georgiev, but don't make the mistake of thinking Henrik Lundqvist's return can simply carry this team. Lundqvist was by no means bad in losses to Nashville and Buffalo to start the year, but the offense supplied him with only three goals. The Rangers are the only team in the league to have played multiple games and still have zero points. They are severely outclassed here as San Jose has cleaned up against teams w/ losing records the L3 seasons, going 56-31. 8* San Jose |
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10-09-18 | Avalanche v. Blue Jackets -130 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
8* Columbus (7:05 ET): For me, Colorado was the biggest surprise in the league last season. That they improved was not the surprising part, but the degree to which they did was the surprise. They went from a historically bad 48 points in 2016-17 to 95 and making the playoffs in 2017-18. So far, this year has gotten off on "the right foot" as the Avs are 2-0 w/ wins over Minnesota and Philadelphia, both at home. But they enter the first road game of the season w/ possibly a significant issue as captain Gabe Landeskog is dealing with a lower-body injury. I'm also a little concerned w/ them starting backup Philip Grubauer in goal tonight. I'll call for their first loss of the season to take place tonight in Columbus. The Blue Jackets are 1-1 as they opened w/ a 3-2 (OT) win at Detroit, but dropped the home opener to Carolina by a score of 3-1. Losing your home opener should be motivation enough to bounce back the next time out. There will be no Brandon Dubinsky on the ice as he's out 4-6 weeks w/ a strained oblique. But I feel that C-bus is better contstructed to overcome a significant injury than is Colorado. The Blue Jackets were a strong home team last season, going 26-12-4 in Nationwide Arena. Columbus has had plenty of shots on goal the first two games, totaling 70. While Dubinsky and his ability to consistently win faceoffs will be missed, I still expect plenty of shots from the Blue Jackets tonight. In goal, they're likely to start Sergei Bobrovsky again after he stopped 32 of 35 shots against Carolina. Even if it's Joonas Korpisalo, I wouldn't mind. For the Avs, Grubauer is making his first start of the season and while it's against a familiar opponent (he's faced Columbus many times as the former backup in Washington), remember that his former team's run to the Stanley Cup last year came AFTER he was permanently benched in favor of Braden Holtby. The Blue Jackets are 12-3 when taking the ice on 3+ days rest and the Avs have dropped 51 of their last 68 road games. 8* Columbus |
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10-04-18 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -155 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
8* Carolina (7:05 ET): It's pretty difficult to envision a scenario where the Islanders finish in the top three, or even four, in the Metro this year. They're coming off a 80-point season and said goodbye to long-time captain John Tavares. Now, just two years ago, the Isles were a playoff contender. Despite the loss of Tavares, I actually think they will finish w/ more than 80 points in 2018-19. But that's not asking much. Matthew Barzal will be asked to fill the void left by Tavares and seems capable given that he scored 22 goals and had a team-high 85 points. But the issue for the Isles remains between the pipes where LY they surrendered a league-high 296 goals. Carolina also would seem unlikely to finish in the top half of the Metro. Their nine-year playoff drought is the league's longest and they too have issues in goal. But, like the Islanders, I do see the 'Canes beating low expectations. There's a new HC here w/ Rod Brind'Amour replacing Bill Peters. "I like how young guys are playing," Brind'Amour said. "They're going to take some time to develop. As far as talent, I don't feel we're short anything. We want to play aggressively." The biggest issue that Brind'Amour faces, at least initially, is in goal. Scott Darling played well in the preseason, but was injured in the final game. That leaves the club pretty depth-shy at the most important position, though they did claim Curtis McElhinney off waivers Tuesday. Petr Mrazek will start the season opener. Carolina had a strong preseason, going 5-0-1. Not sure if that means anything long-term, but it shows me there's some motivation at the start of the season. While it's disappointing they won't have Darling in goal tonight, Mrazek still should do a decent enough job. I'd be more concerned about the situation if the Islanders weren't so prone to giving up goals in bunches themselves. They allowed 40+ shots on goal in roughly one-quarter of the games last season. The Isles' own new HC, Barry Trotz (jumped from Stanley Cup Champs in Washington) doesn't have much to work w/ this season. Carolina actually has a pretty decent blue line coming into the year and I see them getting the two points in this battle of new HC's. 8* Carolina |
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10-03-18 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Montreal (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Canadiens +1.5. Of the four Opening Night games, this one looks to be the biggest mismatch on paper. But perception is not always reality. Toronto is a team I feel is overvalued coming into the 2018-19 season. Yes, they added John Tavares and should have a full season from Auston Matthews after posting 105 points last season. They still should be one of the league's premier offensive teams, but don't be surprised if they fail to top LY's point total. Meanwhile, the Habs may enter the season w/ low expectations, but I have them beating them due to the near certainty that Carey Price will appear between the pipes more than 48 times. Take the +1.5. Obviously, the losses of Shea Weber (knee injury) and Max Pacioretty (traded to Vegas) are what has such a sense of pessimism surrounding Montreal. But I again point to a healthy Price as a reason they'll stay in, if not win, more games this season. Price remains one of the league's elite goaltenders and should perform a lot better on the PK this year. Keep in mind they played a large portion of last season w/o Pacioretty and Weber as well, so it's not as if this will be anything new. Following such a sharp decline last year, improvement this year is only natural. Remember that the Canadiens won the Atlantic Division two years ago. I believe they'll top the books' (very) low 80.5 point projection. Toronto swept the season series w/ the Habs last year, winning all four meetings. That was after losing all four meetings in 2016-17. So Montreal won't be lacking for motivation in this one. Again, the Leafs look overvalued to me. Tavares has never hit 90 points in a season. Then, you have the defensive issues. It's very likely that they will rank in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed. Despite ranking 11th in goals against last season, they still gave up too many shots on a per game basis (33.9). I do not think goalie Frederik Andersen is going to be able to match LY's save percentage (.918) if he faces a similar workload. Maybe Montreal doesn't win this game, but they'll do no worse than a one-goal loss. 8* Puck Line Montreal (+1.5) |
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06-07-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -140 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
8* Vegas (8:05 ET): The incredible season put forth by the expansion Golden Knights is now in real danger of coming to an end, and not in their fairy tale fashion their fans were hoping for. Trailing the Capitals 3-1 in this best of seven Stanley Cup Finals, it's now win or go home for the Knights. Fortunately though, tonight's Game 5 takes place in Sin City where this team has been magical all season long. They've won 36 of 50 games overall here at T-Mobile Arena, including a 7-2 mark in these playoffs. This is their first losing streak of the postseason (lost three in a row) as goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury appears to have hit a "wall" (.845 save percentage in the series), but I think he can summon up the same form we saw from him in the first three rounds (.947 save percentage) for at least one more game. Vegas stays alive w/ a win tonight! The Golden Knights also have to start scoring again. After putting six goals on the board in Game 1, they've totaled just five in the last three games combined. With Fleury no longer performing at an other-worldly level, that's a problem. But again, fortunately, this game is on home ice where they average 3.6 goals per game for the season. That's one of the highest averages in the league for goal scoring at home. We also know that Washington goalie Braden Holtby typically is not as effective on the road as he is in D.C. Case in point, his save percentage has only recently "snuck over" .900 for the year away from home. Something else to consider is that Vegas has NEVER lost four games in a row. Not once all season. They are a perfect 3-0 when coming off three consecutive defeats. They have outshot the Caps in three of the four games so far, an interesting contrast to the first three rounds when they were winning far more often than they were losing, but also getting outshot in the process. They had 73 shots on goal total in the first two games of this Stanley Cup Final and who could forget them being "robbed" by Holtby late in Game 2, which appears to have been the turning point in this series. But I just can't see Vegas' season ending on home ice tonight. They live to fight another day. 8* Vegas |
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06-04-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 112 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Over Golden Knights/Capitals (8:05 ET): Neither of these two franchises has ever hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup. But as you know, that's a highly misleading statement. Washington has been competing for 44 seasons while Vegas is in its first year of existence. The Capitals have never been closer though. After dropping Game 1 in Sin City (6-4), they've stormed back to take the L2 games. I was on them in Game 3 as they controlled largely from start to finish en route to a 3-1 victory. As I said in my analysis, I think it's now fair to ask if Golden Knights' goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has has hit a bit of a "wall." After coming into the Cup Finals w/ an incredible .947 save percentage, he's allowed 10 goals in three games. At the same time though, I expect Vegas to bounce back offensively here in Game 4 as well. I'm on the Over. After outshooting the Capitals in both games in Vegas, the Golden Knights were held to just 22 shots on goal in Game 3. They have been outshot in these playoffs, but that hadn't mattered before w/ Fleury performing at such a ridiculous level. But now that their netminder might be regressing a bit, the offense has to pick it up a bit. Remember that they did score six goals in Game 1 (one on an empty net). Granted, the Knights aren't nearly as prolific in the goal scoring department on the road as they are at home. But they still average nearly 3.0 goals per game on the road. Getting the power play going would be a big help. They are just 11 for 59 w/ the man advantage in the playoffs and failed to convert on either of their chances in Game 3. Washington's power play was a huge story for the first two rounds of this postseason, but has since "tailed off" some as they are getting fewer and fewer chances. They're just 2 for 10 over the L5 games, but still at 27.3% for the playoffs. They were 0 for 4 in Game 3 and I suspect if they get that many chances again, they won't fail to convert again here. Braden Holtby is outplaying Fleury between the pipes in this series and while he's been a better goaltender at home throughout the course of the season, the Over is still 41-29-5 in all of his starts. The Capitals are averaging 3.5 goals per game in the playoffs and have scored no fewer than three in each of the L5 games. 10* Over Golden Knights/Capitals |
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06-02-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals -121 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:15 ET): You have to tip your cap to the job done by the expansion team in Vegas, but let's see how they now respond to some true adversity. After taking Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, 6-4, the Golden Knights dropped Game 2 at home by a score of 3-2. They were oh so close to forcing overtime Wednesday, only to be robbed by Capitals' goalie Braden Holtby in the closing minutes. Now the series shifts to the Nation's Capital and perhaps that isn't the key as much as the game NOT being in Vegas is. Even w/ the Game 2 loss, the Knights are 35-12-2 in their home building this year (6-2 in playoffs). But on the road, they're a far more pedestrian 28-16-5. The Caps are a bizarre 4-5 SU at home this postseason, but I don't see them losing here. Holtby, the hero of Game 2, is a far better goaltender here at the Verizon Center. While his save percentage for the year is below .900 on the road, here at home that number is .920. Over the last four games, which includes two shutouts of the top-scoring team in the league (Tampa Bay), Holtby has stopped 118 of the 125 shots he's faced. Five of those goals he allowed came in Game 1. Though Vegas still has a winning road record, they are basically dead even in terms of goals scored vs. allowed in those contests. This is a team that has managed to outscore its opponents in the playoffs by a full goal per game despite being outshot. That's largely owed to goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who was other-worldly in the first three rounds, but also may be hitting the proverbial "wall." He's given up seven goals so far in the Stanley Cup Finals, easily the most he's allowed in any two-game stretch this postseason where one of the games did not go into OT. Vegas' scoring average also dips below 3.0 goals per game on the road. Washington has outscored its playoff opponents by roughly the same margin as has Vegas, but they have outshot their opponents as well and are scoring more (3.5 gpg). Shockingly, they have dropped their first home game of every series though thus far. With a chance to seize "momentum" (hate that word!), they don't dare repeat that trend here. I realize that Vegas has yet to drop B2B games in the playoffs, but the Caps are also 4-1 SU this postseason when tied in the series. It's not like the Capitals were a bad home team in the regular season either. Keep in mind they are 13-7 SU in the playoffs since Holtby permanently took over in goal and he's got a 2.19 goals against average. 10* Washington |
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05-30-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -149 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -149 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
8* Vegas (8:05 ET): The incredible story that is the Golden Knights continued with (what else?) a win in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals as they scored six times on the Caps in a resounding Game 1 performance. Quickly, we realized this wasn't your "normal" expansion team and the first sign of success was the establishing of a tremendous home ice advantage that would persist throughout the season. The Golden Knights are now 36-11-2 SU in Sin City and that includes 7-1 in the playoffs (w/ the one loss coming in OT). They are also now 3-0 against the Capitals, having scored 13 goals while allowing just 7. Vegas is the better team here (incredible to say!) and should again take care of business at the T-Mobile Arena. Note the Caps have now lost four of their last six games. The Golden Knights have been outshot this postseason, but it hasn't mattered as they're allowing just 1.9 goals per game. That's thanks to goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who came into this series sporting a .945 save percentage. The fact Vegas was able to win Gm 1 despite Fleury allowing four goals should be considered a very positive sign. Not only is it likely Fluery will bounce back (based on what he's done already in the playoffs), but the Golden Knights are 17-9 SU this season after allowing four or more goals the previous season. While Washington has dropped four of its last six games overall, Vegas has won five in a row, not to mention seven of its last eight. There have been just three times previous to Game 1 that they allowed 4 goals in a postseason game. They came back and won the next time out every time. Following B2B shuouts to close out Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference Finals, Capitals' netminder Braden Holtby regressed in a major way on Monday giving up five goals on 33 shots (Vegas added an empty-netter at the end). Of course, I've pointed out before that Holtby has generally not been the same on the road this year. His save percentage dipped back below .900 for the season away from home after the Game 1 performance.To me, it's a little surprising that Holtby's WL record isn't that much different on the road compared to at home despite the save percentage being far lower. The Caps have done well when down in the series this postseason, winning four straight times in that scenario. But the last two times in this spot, they were the home team. Their power play has really carried them in the playoffs, but they failed on their only chance in Game 1 and aren't getting nearly the number of opportunities w/ the man advantage of late. Their just 1 for 8 the L5 games. Maybe Washington does get back into this series, but that will have to wait until they're back home Saturday. 8* Vegas |
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05-28-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 113 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
10* Over Capitals/Golden Knights (8:05 ET): The phrase "defying the odds" is thrown around a lot in sports, whether it's related to betting or not. But, how ironic is it that the phrase has never been more apropos than it is here w/ the very first pro sports franchise in Las Vegas? The expansion Golden Knights, who started as high as a 500/1 proposition to win the Stanley Cup, have stunned everyone in advancing to the Stanley Cup in their first year of existence. This has to be extremely painful to fans of the Capitals, who are making just their second Finals appearance in 44 years of existence and first in exactly 20 years. But needless to say, very few outside of D.C. will be pulling for the Caps in this series, with the exception of the Vegas' bookmakers. An irony here is that this is the first series where the Golden Knights come in as a favorite. They have the home ice advantage, which is huge, as they are 6-1 SU at T-Mobile Arena ini the playoffs. This incredible run has been led by goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who is having a historic postseason w/ a .947 save percentage. The Knights have lost just three times in the playoffs, which is as many times as Washington lost in the last round. However, since losing their first two playoff games, the Capitals have gone 12-5 their L17. Their goalie, Braden Holtby, is having himself quite the postseason as well. He has a .924 save percentage and turned in B2B shutouts to close out the Eastern Conference Finals, stopping all 53 shots, against what was the league's top scoring team in the regular season. If you've seen any of my previous plays on Capitals games, particularly the recent ones, then you've read about their power play. They have scored 16 PP goals in 19 games this postseason and are converting at a somewhat ridiculous 28.8% rate, even after going just 1 for 10 the L5 games. Vegas has been very good on the penalty kill (82.5% in playoffs) while their own PP (18.8%) has been nowhere near as good as Washington's. But still, their 27.8 scoring chances per 60 minutes is tops among teams that have played at least 10 playoff games. They have been outshot in the postseason and will be facing a team averaging 3.5 goals. While Unders were more common for both teams in the Conference Finals, I see Game 1 of this series going Over the total. 10* Over Capitals/Golden Knights |
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05-23-18 | Capitals +125 v. Lightning | Top | 4-0 | Win | 125 | 37 h 41 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): After the road team won each of the first four games of this best of seven series, "order has been restored" w/ the home team winning the last two. So here we are in Game 7 in Tampa Bay Wednesday. Though winning both Games 1 and 2 here, one could argue that Game 6 was the Caps' strongest performance of the series to date. They shut the Lightning out, 3-0, holding them to just 24 shots on goal. The Capitals have now outshot the Lightning in all six games in the series, which certainly seems like it should mean SOMETHING. Unlike the NBA, road teams winning a Game 7 in the NHL playoffs happens w/ relatively frequency (We just saw it last round w/ Winnipeg beating Nashville). I'm going to "buck convention" here and take the road dog. The respective power plays are (finally) starting to slow down here. Tampa Bay scored w/ the man advantage in nine straight games going into Game 5. But they are 0 for 3 the L2 games. Their number of chances have greatly been reduced over the L3 games as well (just five PP's total). Still, the Lightning power play is 6 for 17 in the series. That's just over 35%, which (like I've said before) is an unsustainable rate. Consider that TB was 3rd in the league on the PP during the regular season, but at 23.9%. Now you can say something similar for Washington's power play as well. They're at nearly 30 percent in the playoffs despite being just 2 for 11 the L5 games. But if there's one "X-factor" here, it's that the Lightning penalty kill was a major liability in the regular season (ranked 27th). The Caps did score on their lone PP chance in Game 6. Tuesday actually was Braden Holtby's first shutout of the entire season! The Caps' goalie is just 2-4 SU all-time in Game 7's, but has a respectable .923 save percentage in those games. Counterpart Andrei Vasilevskiy played well in Game 6 also, stopping 31 of 33 shots (Caps scored on an empty net late). But his level of play has come down a bit in this series and his save percentage at home for the season is a surprisingly low .908. The fact he's facing a higher number of shots than Holtby essentially nullifies his higher save percentage. I should point out that the Lightning are not only being outshot in this series, they're being outshot for the entire postseason and only +0.4 goals per game. Washington is outshooting its opposition in the playoffs and also +0.8 gpg. Being the road team here won't bother the Caps either; they've won 14 of their last 17 road games and have closed out each of their first two series on the road. 10* Washington |
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05-21-18 | Lightning v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Under Lightning/Capitals (8:10 ET): I've said it before and I'll say it again. It's pretty ironic that Washington's playoff run could very well end the same way it started. If you recall, they opened this postseason by dropping the first two games (both at home) of their Round 1 series vs. Columbus. But they stormed back to take the next four games (three of them in C-bus), then finally got over the "emotional hurdle" that was the rival Penguins, eliminating them in six games too. The Eastern Conference Finals began w/ the road team taking the first two games, only this time it was Washington turning the trick. But just like the Blue Jackets in Rd 1, the Capitals have been unable to sustain "momentum" (hate that word!). Tampa Bay has come all the way back and after the road team won each of the first four games of this series, they took back the home ice advantage w/ a 3-2 win in Game 5 at Amalie Arena on Saturday. Washington now must win this game (at home) to keep its season alive and force a Game 7, which would take place in Tampa on Wednesday. Vegas awaits the winner of this series in the Stanley Cup Finals. I had the Under in Game 5 and it won. It was actually the first Under in the series after three of the first four games "pushed" (on the number of 6.0) and Game 2 (Capitals won 6-2) went Over. I have little to add here that I didn't say in my Game 5 analysis. As projected here, both power plays are starting to decline from the ridiculous conversion rates we saw in the first two rounds. In fact, Game 5 saw only one power play chance from either side (TB) and it was successfully killed off. No team had been better w/ the man advantage in the first two rounds than Washington, but they have zero PP goals the L3 games and are just 3 for 14 in this series. Meanwhile, Game 5 snapped a streak for the Lightning that had seen them score at least one PP goal in nine consecutive contests. Bottom line is that the respective power plays were on an unsustainable run of success and were "due" to come down. Tampa Bay had scored 11 PP goals in that nine-game stretch and that's pretty ridiculous even for a unit that was 3rd overall in the regular season. They are 40% w/ the man advantage in the series and 30% in the playoffs overall, numbers well above their 23.9% in the reg season. The Capitals are at 28.6% on the PP in the playoffs, but have dropped to 21.4% in the series, which is more in line w/ their own reg season performance (where they ranked 7th in the league). If there is something the hosts can lean on here, it's the fact that goalie Braden Holtby has been much better at home than on the road this year. Meanwhile, this series may represent a bit of a dropoff for Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, but he's still allowed two goals or less in 9 of the team's 15 playoff games. 10* Under Lightning/Capitals |
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05-20-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets -140 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
10* Winnipeg (3:05 ET): If the Jets are to snap Canada's quarter century long Stanley Cup drought, it's going to take one heck of a comeback. They are down three games to one to the Golden Knights in this Western Conference Finals, a cruel bit of irony considering this is the first year of professional hockey in Las Vegas while Canada invented the sport. But fortunately for the Jets, even though they're facing elimination, is that tonight's game is on home ice. So too would be Game 7, if things were to get that far. Here in Winnipeg, the team was 32-7-2 straight up in the regular season. Not only was that the fewest number of home regulation losses in the entire league, they also led the league in scoring on home ice at 3.8 goals per game. I can't see the Jets' season ending today. Now, Winnipeg did lose the last time here, which was Game 2 of this series. They've actually now lost three of four on home ice, dating back to the Nashville series. That's pretty stunning, given the regular season success, and something I cannot see continuing. They did win all three home games in their first round series, outscoring Minnesota 12-3. In fact, they won their first four home playoff games w/ a 19-7 scoring edge. So that's a 36-7-2 SU record before dropping three of the last four. (You can see why I think it's likely they get back on track here). This is also tied for the longest overall losing streak of the Jets' season (3 games). Only twice during the regular season did they lose three in a row. Both of those streaks were entirely comprised of road games. In each instance, they came back and won the next time out at home. The final scores of those two games were: 5-1 and 6-2. The Jets have outshot the Knights in all four games of this series and certainly "looked" like the better team in the third period Friday. But it was still not enough as they lost 3-2 to put themselves on the brink. Part of the issue is that Golden Knights' goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is having himself a phenomenal postseason as his save percentage is .945. But I'm not confident he can sustain that, especially going against a team that has proven itself so prolific in goal scoring here at home. Counterpart Connor Hellebuyck has not had a great series by comparison, but the Jets are 35-10 SU this season when he starts at home. 10* Winnipeg No ActionNo |
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05-19-18 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Capitals/Lightning (7:15 ET): Going into Game 4, I wrote something to the effect that Washington was facing a situation where their playoff run could end the same way it began. For if you recall, they opened this postseason by dropping the first two games (both at home) of their Round 1 series vs. Columbus. They stormed back to take the next four games, then finally got over the "emotional hurdle" that was the rival Penguins, eliminating them in six games too. Then, they started the Eastern Conference Finals by taking both Games 1 and 2 in Tampa Bay. But just like that 1st round series w/ Columbus, the road team has continued winning through the first four games and we're all tied up at two games apiece. Now perhaps, the Caps are in some trouble as they'll have to win at least one more time on the road. Interesting is that the Lightning aren't priced as high (on the ML) here as they were for either of the first two games. I'll be on the Under here in Game 5. None of the first four games have seen fewer than six total goals scored, but three of the four happen to have landed right on that number of 6, which not coincidentally has been the O/U line set by oddsmakers. I believe we're due for a decrease in scoring as the series moves forward, particuarly from the respective power plays, which have reached a point of "unsustainability," at least in my view. Tampa Bay has now scored a PP goal in nine straight games, going 11 of 33. They are converting at 30.8% for the entire playoffs, including 41.2% the L5 games. That's fairly ridiculous, even for a team that finished the regular season w/ the third best PP in the league. But they were "only" 23.9% over the 82-game season. Washington's power play had been even more prolific this postseason, but has perhaps already begun to curtail, going a combined 0 for 7 the L2 games. The good news is that they've outshot the Lightning in all four games, by a pretty substantial margin. It was definitely disappointing to see goalie Braden Holtby perform as poorly as he did in the two games at home, but I think he'll bounce back here. Meanwhile, TB's Vasilevskiy has allowed two or fewer goals in 8 of the team's 14 playoff games. With both PP's set to regress, the stakes so high and my belief we'll see two standout performances between the pipes here, Under is the call. 10* Under Capitals/Lightning |
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05-18-18 | Jets v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Jets/Golden Knights (8:05 ET): For the 1st time this postseason, Winnipeg finds itself trailing in a series. After taking Game 1 of this Western Conference Final, 4-2, they have since surrendered the home ice advantage by losing Games 2 and 3, by respective scores of 3-1 and 4-2. Thus, Vegas would appear to be sitting pretty, given the tremendous home ice advantage they've enjoyed all season long and the fact they've lost only three games this entire postseason. We've seen the Golden Knights completely rewrite the record books for an expansion team (no matter the sport) and making the Stanley Cup Final in their 1st year of existence would obviously be a remarkable achievement. But I'm not about to write off Winnipeg (who won a Game 7 at Nashville) just yet either. It's the total I'm focused on here for Game 4 Friday night. The Jets are the highest scoring home team in the league at 3.8 goals per game, but guess who wasn't too far behind them (at #4). That would be the Golden Knights, who averaged 3.56 goals per game here in Sin City during the regular season. They've actually slightly exceeded that average here during the playoffs, averaging 3.67 per game. The Knights have been outshot in all three games in this series, but have been bailed out in the last two by goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who is having himself a remarkable postseason. Fleury now has a .945 save percentage overall in the playoffs. But, moving forward, that is a difficult percentage to maintain, especially when faced w/ a talented and explosive team like the Jets. What Winnipeg desperately needs right now is for someone other than center Mark Scheifele to start scoring. Scheifele has accounted for 14 of his teams 50 goals this postseason, an incredibly high percentage. He had both Jets' goals in Game Three. I have to imagine that a deep team that came into the Conference Finals w/ seven players having multiple even strength goals and five w/ double-digit, all situation, point totals, is going to get going soon. Note that off a loss in the previous series (vs. Nashville), Winnipeg scored 7, 6 and 5 goals the next time out. This is the 1st time in a LONG time that they are off consecutive losses (just 4th losing streak since X-mas and 1st since mid-March). Look for a high-scoring Game 4. 10* Over Jets/Golden Knights |
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05-17-18 | Lightning v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
10* Over Lightning/Capitals (8:05 ET): Washington currently finds itself in a bit of a unique position, hoping its playoff run does not end similar to the way it started. Back in Round 1, they dropped the first two games (at home) to Columbus, only to storm back and take the next four (three on the road). They followed that up by (finally!) vanquishing the rival Penguins in six games in Round 2. Then, came the REAL surprise as they opened the Eastern Conference Finals by taking BOTH Games 1 & 2 in Tampa Bay. But just when you thought "for certain" these Caps were turning a corner, they dropped Game 3 at home to the Lightning, 4-2. Now, they're desperately trying to avoid the same fate they dealt Columbus back in Rd 1. While you'd think the home side was "due" to win a game in this series, I'm pointing to the total for Game 4 and thinking this one goes Over. All three games of the series so far have seen at least six total goals scored. A huge key to both teams' success thus far in the postseason has been the power play. Washington actually outshot TB in Game 3, 38-23, but was 0 for 3 w/ the man advantage. That's been a real rarity to see from them in the playoffs as they're still converting at a phenomenal 30.8% on the PP in the playoffs. They were 3 for 7 in the first two games and have not gone B2B games w/o a PP goal in these playoffs. Not to be outdone, the Lightning have scored 11 PP goals over their L7 games and are now also at 30% in the postseason. While these convesation rates are high, note both teams had top seven power plays in the regular season. Center Nicklas Backstrom could return here for Washington, which would be huge. He's missed the L4 games w/ a hand injury and had 21 goals/50 assists in the reg season as well as 3 goals/10 assists in the first 11 playoff games. Meanwhile, goalie Braden Holtby had his first "off-day" in Game 3, allowing four goals for the first time this postseason. The Over is 40-24-3 in all Holtby starts this season. As for Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, he bounced back from a shaky first two games of the series by stopping 36 of 38 shots in Game 3. But his save percentage in the last four games is still down at .898. The Lightning have scored four goals in four of their last seven games while the Capitals are averaging 3.7 gpg in the postseason. The trend of high scoring affairs should continue here in Game 4. 10* Over Lightning/Capitals |
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05-15-18 | Lightning v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Lightning/Capitals (8:10 ET): Top seeded Tampa Bay certainly finds itself in a major hole in this Eastern Conference Finals having dropped the first two games at home. Washington is now 10-2 since re-inserting goalie Braden Holtby into the lineup and appears to be a much "different" (i.e. more clutch) team that past editions. The series now shifts to the Nation's capital and I'm a bit surprised that the home team isn't being given a little more respect by the oddsmakers. Yet, the Lightning ought to still be respected as well given all that they've accomplished. So I'm back to the total and after two relatively high-scoring games to start the series, I'm taking the Under in Game 3. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had been the star of the team in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He came into the ECF sporting a somewhat ridiculous .943 save percentage at even strength. But he had - by far - his worst game on Sunday, allowing six goals on 37 shots. Particularly disastrous were the final two minutes of the second period where Vasilevskiy allowed two goals, which turned a tie game into a 4-2 Capitals' advantage going into the third period. I can't see him playing that poorly again, even w/ the series shifting sites. In fact, Vasilevskiy has a .932 save percentage for the year on the road. I also can't see Washington's power play continuing to produce at the ridiculous rate it has so far this postseason. By going 1 for 3 in Game 2, the Caps are now 16 of 49 w/ the man advantage in the playoffs, which works itself out to an unsustainable 32.7%. They're are above 35% the L5 games! Capitals' goalie Holtby had a save percentage nearly identical to that of Vasilevskiy during the regular season. He has outshined his counterpart in this series, stopping 52 of 56 shots. I'd mentioned in previous analysis that Holtby had NOT been as strong on the road this year, but here at home his save percentage is a lot better. The Lightning got both goals from the PP in Game 2 as they too are above 30% the L5 games when on the man advantage. These PP numbers HAVE to start coming down and the good news for Holtby and the Caps is that TB doesn't score as much on the road as they do at home (no shock there). 10* Under Lightning/Capitals |
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05-14-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets -145 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -145 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
8* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): The Jets wasted no time taking control of the Western Conference Finals, scoring three times in the opening seven minutes of Game 1 amd never looking back. As I said in my analysis (had the Jets), home ice advantage is a very "real thing" for this team, who had the best home record in the league during the regular season (32-7-2 SU). Winning Game 7 in Nashville speaks volumes about what this team is capable of and while Vegas has been an incredible story in this, their expansion season, the bottom line is the clock is likely to "strike midnight" at some point. I like the Jets in Game 2 for all the reasons I liked them in Game 1. An argument could made that it was "rust over rest" for the Golden Knights in Game 1 as they were coming off a long layoff before this series. They had not played since Sunday and perhaps that showed w/ the slow start. Or the case could be made that Winnipeg is simply the superior team here. In my Game 1 analysis, I made a point to say that I was interested how the Golden Knights would perform as road dogs after such a long layoff. The answer turned out to be "not so well." We know how well they've performed in Sin City in this, their inaugural season. But this is also the first series where they do NOT have the home ice advantage. No team in the league averages more goals per game at home than does the Jets. In fact, no team had a better goal differential on home ice than did the Jets. As I said in my Game 1 analysis, in my view, both teams Winnipeg has eliminated this postseason (Minnesota, Nashville) are stronger than either of the two Vegas took out (Los Angeles, San Jose). Certainly beating the Predators was a feather in the cap of the Jets. This is a deep team that has seven players w/ multiple even strength goals and five w/ double-digit, all situation point totals, led by center Mark Scheifle. Their blue line is so deep that they still are playing three pairs of defensemen and for good reason. They held Vegas to just 21 shots on goal in Game 1. Winnipeg is simply the better team in this series and should again win on home ice. Remember this is the ONLY team in the league that finished in the top five in both goals scored (2nd) and goals allowed (5th) during the regular season. 8* Winnipeg |
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05-13-18 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
10* Under Capitals/Lightning (8:05 ET): Are "these" Capitals really different than the underacheivers of franchise past? Maybe so. After finally vanquishing the rival Penguins in Round 2, they came in and took Game 1 at Tampa Bay in impressive fashion, winning 4-2 as +160 ML underdogs. After starting the postseason w/ consecutive home losses to Columbus, the Caps have won 9 of their last 11 as they look to make only their second Stanley Cup Finals ever. In fact, this is just their second ever appearances in the Conference Finals! They had to wait 20 years to get here, but you can't help but think there might be a little "letdown" Sunday night in Game 2. I don't necessarily want to bet against them though, not at this price at least, so let's look at the total instead. Both teams are known for their scoring. The Lightning led the league in goals per game during the regular season. Washington is averaging a very impressive 3.6 gpg here in the postseason, but a lot of that has to do w/ the power play, which "struck gold" again (scoring twice) in Game 1. In the postseason, the Caps are now 15 for 46 w/ the man advantage, a ridiculous 32.6% overall, easily the highest percentage of any team. But I can't see them continuing to score at the current rate, whether we're talking even strength or on the power play. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been outstanding in the playoffs as he came into the series sporting a save percentage of .943 at even strength. In six of the team's 10 games in the first two rounds, Vasilevskiy has allowed two goals or fewer. I believe he'll bounce back here after a subpar Game 1 effort. No team in the playoffs has allowed fewer scoring chances than TB. The problem for them in Game 1 was that they had only 21 shots on goal. That's a problem as Washington's Braden Holtby has a nearly identical save percentage to Vasilevskiy overall in the postseason. The Capitals have not allowed more than three goals in any playoff game w/ Holtby between the pipes. Washington has gone Over in only two of its previous seven games while TB has gone Over in only two of its previous eight. 10* Under Capitals/Lightning |
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05-12-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
8* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): I made the mistake of doubting the Jets in Game 7 at Nashville, but I don't think I'll be doing that again. Despite being relatively young and inexperienced, this team finished w/ the second most points in the league during the regular season and they just vanquished the President's Trophy winners (Nashville) on the road, mind you. I suspect that home ice advantage is going to be huge in this Western Conference Finals as arguably no two teams in the league get a bigger "boost" from their home crowds than the two participants here. Vegas has defied all the odds getting this far, setting a new standard for all expansion teams (in all sports) to try and live up to. But Winnipeg is 36-9-2 SU on home ice this year and I like them to take Game 1. While Winnipeg is coming off an extremely tough series (where the road team won the final four games!), Vegas has been patiently waiting after finishing off San Jose in six games. They last played on Sunday. That long layoff could prove to be a detriment coming into this series as they'll have to "rediscover momentum." You really have to hand it to the Golden Knights for what they've done so far. They swept the Kings in the 1st round and have four shutout wins in these playoffs. But they've also had to win three times in overtime. This will be their first series w/o the home ice advantage as well and we know how great this team has played in Sin City this year. After a long layoff, I'm really interested to see how they respond as a road underdog. I would argue that both teams Winnipeg eliminated were stronger than either Vegas' opponent this postseason. Certainly Nashville was a tougher task than either Los Angeles or San Jose was for Vegas. Golden Knights' goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been incredible to this point (.966 even strength save percentage), but can he keep it up against the deeper Jets? Winnipeg has seven players w/ multiple even strength goals and five w/ double-digit, all situation point totals, led by center Mark Scheifle. Their blue line is so deep that they still are playing three pairs of defensemen and for good reason. At the end of the day, Winnipeg averages 3.8 goals per game on home ice, the highest average in the league. I look for them to start this series out w/ a win. 8* Winnipeg |
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05-11-18 | Capitals v. Lightning -173 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -173 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (8:10 ET): The two division winners meet in the Eastern Conference Finals this year with the Lightning having the home ice edge over the Washington Capitals. Tampa Bay has gotten here by eliminating New Jersey and Boston, needing only five games to dispose of both. Doing that to the Bruins was especially impressive. The Capitals are in the Conference Finals for just the second time in franchise history (incredible!), the last time coming in 1998. Given the success of the franchise, there really is no underselling how shocking that is. It also speaks to their past playoff failures. They finally got by nemesis Pittsburgh in the second round (won series in 6 games), but you have to wonder if the emotional high of that accomplishment can't be matched here in Game 1. Tampa Bay has a hot goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has an even strength save percentage of .943 in these playoffs. In six of the 10 games, he's allowed 10 goals or fewer. Meanwhile, there is reason for concern w/ Washington goalie Braden Holtby, who has an .897 save percentage for the year away from home. This is the first series where the Caps do NOT have the home ice advantage. Holtby infamously did not start the team's first two playoff games, which were both losses to Columbus. But since he's come in, they've gone 8-2. Both teams have had plenty of rest coming into this series, so the fact the Capitals have played two more games in the playoffs shouldn't matter, at least initially. But the home ice will as TB is 34-11-2 SU here at Amelia Arena. Depth is another concern here for the Caps as Nicklas Backstrom is listed as day to day w/ a back injury. While the team has plenty of firepower, the Lightning have more as they ranked ahead of the Caps in both overall scoring and on the power play during the regular season. In fact, the Lightning were the top goal scoring team in the league. That's why they finished w/ the top goal differential in all of the league at +60, outscoring opponents by three times the number the Caps did. It should also be noted that Washington has won three times in OT this postseason; TB has needed to do that only once. Seven of the Lightning's eight wins have come by at least two goals. I'll go w/ the better (and more trustworthy) team at home in Game 1. 8* Tampa Bay |
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05-10-18 | Jets v. Predators -150 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -150 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
8* Nashville (8:05 ET): Home ice hasn't mattered in the last three games of this series as the road team has won every time. But I believe it will here as the Predators get to play host for the winner take all Game 7. Winnipeg, who had the best home record in the league during the regular season, blew a golden opportunity to close out this series when they lost 4-0 in Game 6 Monday night. They did outshoot the Preds (34-29), but couldn't solve Pekka Rinne, who delivered his second shutout of this postseason. While neither side has been able to win consecutive games in this series, I look for the Preds to break that streak as I just can't see them losing Game 7 at home. Nashville has had three games in the series w/ at least 40 shots on goal. Not coincidentally, all three were at home. This is a team that went 28-9-4 SU in the regular season at Bridgestone Arena and pretty easily won its first two playoff home games (against the Colorado Avalanche). But they've shockingly dropped three of four on home ice since, the only win coming in overtime (Game 2 of this series). Again, as good as this team is (most points in the the regular season), I just can't see them losing on home ice again. Perhaps the most important factor going into tonight's Game 7 is experience. The Preds' roster has a combined 45 games of Game 7 experience while the younger Jets have only 12. While this is the first Game 7 Nashville has ever played at home, it's Winnipeg's first Game 7 since relocating from Atlanta in the 2010-11 season. The Jets have gone 4-1 on the road this postseason, but were below .500 in the regular season. They have outscored the Preds in the series and had more shots on goal, but it's going to be awfully tough to beat Rinne, who has a 28-11 SU record at home this season. Going 0 for 4 on the power play was a real killer in Game 6 and just feels like a blown opportunity. They had just four shots total w/ the man advantage. Three of those PP's came in the first period when it was still a 1-0 game. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck finished w/ just 25 saves, his lowest number for any game in the playoffs. Consider this: Winnipeg is just 1-5 SU following a home loss by three or more goals. 8* Nashville |
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05-07-18 | Capitals v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Capitals/Penguins (7:05 ET): The Penguins were the lone lower-seeded team to be favored (to win the series) in the second round, yet here they are facing elimination. The good news for Game 6 is that they are at home and a significant favorite to force a Game 7, which would take place Wednesday night in D.C. As you might think, scoring hasn't really been the issue thus far for the Pens, who have found the back of the net three times in four of the five games. But they've also allowed four or more goals in three of the last four. Game 5, won by the Capitals, was the highest scoring game of the series as the final score was 6-3. That score is a little misleading in the sense that the Caps scored twice on an empty net in the final 90 seconds. But even so, there were still seven goals scored before that. Take the Over in Game 6. Pittsburgh did enter the third period up 3-2 in that game, thanks to a pair of power play goals in the second. It's no secret that this team was #1 in the league w/ the man advantage during the regular season. They've now scored at least one PP goal in three consecutive games. They were also #1 in even strength scoring in the second half of the season, so it's not all the power play. They did outshoot the Caps in Game 6, 39-32, which was their highest shot total for any individual game in the series. Facing elimination, the Pens should be thankful to be at home as they're big favorites for a reason. They average 3.6 goals per game here for the season. They've actually topped that averaged overall here in the playoffs thanks to a 12.5 shot percentage. Bottom line is Pittsburgh will "get theirs" tonight. So too should Washington, who is 20-11 Over this season following a win by 2+ goals. We know they are no slouch in the scoring department either, ranking 9th overall in goals per game and 7th on the power play (right behind Pittsburgh in both categories). For the playoffs, the Caps are averaging 3.7 goals per game, same as the Pens. That can be attributed to the fact they are an impressive 13 of 41 on the power play. Game 1 of this series marks the only time in the playoffs that they have not scored at least once on the power play. Note that Pittsburgh is giving up almost 3.0 goals per game in the playoffs despite allowing an average of just 26.3 shots per game. Pens' goalie Matt Murray has a save percentage of .885 the L4 games, which is not good. But Washington has just as much reason to be concerned in goals as Braden Holtby has an .896 save percentage for the year on the road. 10* Over Capitals/Penguins |
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05-06-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Golden Knights/Sharks (7:35 ET): As we've been over ad nauseam, the hockey team in Vegas has set a new standard for which expansion teams - in all sports - will forever be compared to. After winning Game 5 at home on Friday, they are now one more win away from making the Conference Finals in their first year of existence, which obviously would be a remarkable achievement. But winning tonight in San Jose might prove difficult and thus I'm not going to throw my endorsement behind the Golden Knights. This has been a high-scoring series w/ seven more goals scored in four of the five games thus far, the lone exception coming when the Knights were shut out here in San Jose back in Game 4. Other than that loss though, they've scored 19 goals in the other four games. I'll look for the high-scoring trend to continue and take the Over in Game 6 Sunday night.  Game 5 appeared poised to be a low-scoring win for Vegas as they led 3-0 going into the third period. But the teams then combined for five goals in the final 20 minutes, three coming in a six-minute flurry by the Sharks after they'd fallen behind 4-0. For good measure, Vegas added an empty-netter in the final 90 seconds to make the final score 5-3. This has been a much different series for the Golden Knights compared to Rd 1 vs. the Kings when they allowed only three total goals and scored just seven themselves in four games, two of those coming in OT. A major reason for that has been the number of power play chances they've had (27 in five games). They've actually only cashed in six times w/ the man advantage, so that speaks to how prolific they've been at even strength. They're also averaging 33.8 shots per game in the series, a number they didn't hit in three of the four games vs. the Kings.  But at the same time, the Knights are also allowing more shots per game in this series as well (37.2 per game). Their own penalty killing unit has been tested, just like the Sharks, facing 25 power plays. They've killed off 20 of them. But it will be more difficult stopping San Jose here on the road as the Sharks have scored 17 goals in four home playoff games. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been nowhere near as effective in this series as he was vs. the Kings, posting a .908 save percentage the L4 games. Two of the five games in this series have been shutouts, but the winning side has also scored no fewer than four goals in all five games. Over is the play here. 10* Over Golden Knights/Sharks |
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05-05-18 | Jets v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10* Under Jets/Predators (9:35 ET): Nashville picked up a huge victory in Game 4 (2-1), thus taking back the home ice advantage they had lost in Game 1. Speaking of home ice advantage, the series now shifts back to "Smashville" for Game 5. I'm not about to deviate from my view that Winnipeg might just be the better team here, but I have to also concede that winning in Nashville tonight is going to be a tall order for them. But what I am confident in here is another low-scoring affair similar to Game 4. Winnipeg had started out this series by scoring at least four goals in each of the first three games. But that streak came to a crashing halt in Game 4 Thursday as they scored only one time on 33 shots. Nashville had scored nine goals in Games 2 and 3, which was also unsustainable. Take the Under here. Winnipeg is the highest scoring team in the league on home ice at 3.8 gpg. So it was quite impressive to see the Preds hold them to just one goal in the last game. Then again, Nashville was #2 in the regular season in goals allowed. Notable for the scene shifting for Game 5 is that the Jets see their scoring average dip by nearly a full goal per game on the road (down to 2.9). The Under is 26-19 in all Winnipeg road games this season as well as 10-4 if they are seeking revenge for a home loss (which they are here). Game 4 featured the fewest number of total shots on goal in the series, showing that things are "tightening up" as the stakes are raised. Nashville, in particular, exhibited a far more "conservative" and defensive-oriented approach in Game 4. "It was something we really focused on, playing solid defensively," Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne said. I expect them to employ a similar strategy here in Game 5. Winnipeg is no slouch defensively either as they've allowed two goals or less in six of their nine playoff games thus far. They too were a top five team in goals allowed during the regular season. Connor Hellebuyck has had himself a nice postseason between the pipes w/ a .921 save percentage. I'd say the last three games he hasn't been at his best, but for the team's sake, he knows he "has" to be tonight. Remember that after his one bad outing in the 1st round vs. Minnesota, Hellebuyck bounced back w/ B2B shutouts. I expect him to play well here. However, Winnipeg still will have to solve Nashville's blue line, which is the best in the sport two deep. 10* Under Jets/Predators |
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05-04-18 | Lightning v. Bruins OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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05-03-18 | Capitals v. Penguins -155 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): There's a real "sense of irony" here in what I've seen called the "best final eight (teams)" in Stanley Cup Playoff history. Of the four matchups, three saw the team with the home ice advantage come in as the betting favorite. That's not uncommon, in fact, normally one would assume that the team w/ the home ice edge would be favored to win the series. However, the way things stand now, the series underdog is currently leading all four series! That includes this one where Pittsburgh, the one favorite that did NOT have home ice advantage in its series, is down two games to one to the Capitals. Tonight is a virtual "must-win" as they are at home. I'll take 'em. Game 1 was certainly a familiar "script" for the Capitals in what has been a very one-sided rivalry (at least come playoff time) w/ the Penguins. At home, they blew a two-goal lead in the third period, giving up three straight goals in a six-minute span. Remember, of the 10 previous playoff series between these teams, Pittsburgh has won NINE of them. Each of the last two seasons, we have seen the Pens eliminate the Caps en route to winning the Stanley Cup. However, given the way the series opener played out, perhaps its more surprising to see Washington bounce back to take the last two games. Game 2 again saw them take a two-goal lead (early), only this time they expanded it rather than blow it, and end up winning 4-1. It was another four-goal effort here in Game 3 and this time it was a Caps' rally as they scored the only two goals in the third period to win 4-3 (Alex Ovechkin had the game winner w/ less than two minutes in regulation).  It's not w/o sound reasoning that Pittsburgh was favored to win this series. They had a better regular season goal differential than Washington, were #1 in even strength goals the second half of the season and own the league's top power play unit. That's in additon to "owning" this rivalry through the years. The Capitals were actually outscored at even strength in the 1st round series w/ Columbus, but got nine power play goals to overcome that. Neither PP has been that effective in this series, but I expect Pittsburgh's to "wake up" sooner rather than later as its just 2 for its last 19, which is highly irregular. Also, the Pens are 28-10 this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. I just can't see them dropping both home games considering they are 32-11-2 here for the season (average 3.6 goals per game). Finally, there's the fact Washington is going to be w/o forward Tom Wilson, who was suspended for the next three games due to a vicious hit he levied in the last game, which broke the jaw of rookie Zach Aston-Reese. 10* Pittsburgh |
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05-02-18 | Golden Knights +118 v. Sharks | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
9* Vegas (10:05 ET): The Golden Knights simply continue to establish new benchmarks for an expansion franchise, no matter the sport. They're now 6-1 in the playoffs after "stealing" Game 3 Monday night in overtime. They can now take a commanding 3-1 series lead w/ another win tonight in San Jose. Unlike the 1st round series (where they swept the Kings), scoring has not been an issue for Vegas in the 2nd round as they've totaled 14 goals in three games. That's twice as many goals as they had in the four-game sweep of Los Angeles. Now they've also allowed seven goals the L2 games after giving up only three in the first five (three shutouts). But the fact they were still able to win one of those speaks volumes about the resiliency of this team. I'm going with them at 'plus money' in Game 4. Vegas is now 5-2 vs. San Jose in their inaugural season. Of course, as we've come to learn throughout this season, this isn't your "normal" expansion team. They defied the odds by winning the Pacific Division in the regular season and while many cite a tremendous home ice advantage, they also had 22 road wins, tied for second most in the league. Curiously, San Jose has not been a dominant home team as they're "only" 27-14-3 at the Shark Tank in 2017-18. They also have a losing record against teams that are .500 or better this year. Game 3 saw Vegas jump out to a 3-1 lead after two periods, only to give up two goals in the final 13 minutes. San Jose tied things up w/ less than two minutes to go in regulation, but it was "not to be" as William Karlsson of the Golden Knights won it in overtime. Yes, Vegas has been a tad bit "lucky" in the playoffs as all but one win (7-0 over San Jose in Gm 1) has been by one goal. They've also been outshot in all but two games w/ one of the exceptions seeing them outshoot the Sharks by one in that Game 1 romp. But this club has been both lucky and good throughout its first year of existence and can hang its hat on a red-hot goaltender (Marc-Andre Fleury) that has a .960 save percentage in the postseason. Also, the Vegas power play has come alive in this series w/ five goals after going just 1 for 12 against the Kings (who had the top PK unit in the league during the regular season). What's impressive is that the Sharks' penalty killing ranked #2 in the reg season. I also have my concerns about San Jose's ability to score moving forward as this team was only 15th in even strength goals during the regular season. They were fortunate to go 6 for 20 w/ the man advantage in the first round vs. Anaheim, but are now just 3 for 16 in this series. With a clear edge in goal, I'll call for Vegas to continue rolling. 9* Vegas |
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05-01-18 | Predators v. Jets -140 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
9* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): The Jets did what they needed to do in Games 1 & 2 in Nashville and that was earn a split. They took Game 1 in shockingly convincing fashion, 4-1, before dropping Game 2 in double overtime, 5-4. It was ironic that that Jets won the game where they were outshot 48-19, but lost the one where they had a 50-41 edge in shots. Obviously, even w/ a 2OT affair involved, that's a lot of shots to be giving up over a two-game span. But any concerns I might have over that tidbit are quickly quelled by the series shifting back to Winnipeg for Game 3. Here, the Jets have lost only nine times all season, the fewest number of home losses in the entire league. They won all three home games in the first round, averaging four goals per game. That's right on par w/ their season average of 3.9 gpg here at MTS Place, the highest scoring average at home in the entire league. I'll take the Jets in Game 3. Winnipeg had the highest goal differential in home games during the regular season, outscoring visiting teams by 1.34 goals per game. It's not just their scoring, however. This team also ranked 5th in the league in goals allowed during the regular season, making them the only team to rank in the top five in both goals scored and goals allowed. (Tampa Bay still had a slightly better overall goal differential due to their top-ranked offense). In the three home games in Rd 1 vs. Minnesota, the Jets allowed a total of only three goals. While Nashville was able to win a 5-4 game on Sunday, they should be wary here considering Winnipeg's record this season is 18-9 SU after giving up 4+ goals the previous game. Prior to that loss, the Jets had allowed a total of only ONE goal the previous three games. Winnipeg did have a three-game losing streak in March, but all three games took place on the road. Other than that, they suffered B2B losses only two other times since Christmas! I'm of the opinion that they are the better team here, so it's very easy to like them w/ the home ice advantage in Game 3. They have won 12 in a row here in Manitoba. Now the last loss here did come against Nashville by a score of 6-5 back on Feb 27th. The Preds are tied w/ TB for the most road wins in the league, but this is arguably the toughest venue in the league to play at and I don't know if they can get the home ice advantage back. Something else to consider is that Nashville has only won once this postseason when scoring fewer than five goals. If their offense isn't clicking again tonight (and I don't think it will be), that's going to be a problem moving forward. 9* Winnipeg |
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04-30-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
8* Under San Jose/Vegas (10:05 ET): The Sharks have "stolen" away home ice advantage from the Golden Knights by virtue of a 4-3 overtime win in Game 2. That was a nice bounce back from a disastrous 7-0 loss in Game 1 where they faced an insane TEN Vegas' power play chances, killing "only" seven of them. At the same time, San Jose's own PP was 0 for 5 in the series opener. We've now seen B2B games w/ seven total goals scored, one w/ all the scoring coming from one side and the other with a more even distribution. I think what we can expect for Game 3 in San Jose is a lower-scoring game. Take the Under. In Vegas' 1st round series sweep of the Kings, the Under was 3-0-1. They allowed just three total goals in those four games while scoring just seven themselves. After just two games in this series, we've seen more goals scored and more allowed than the four against the Kings! Actually, it took just one game to equal the number of goals scored vs. the Kings while Game 2 Saturday saw them give up more than they had in the previous five combined. After starting the playoffs w/ three shutouts in five games, it was only natural for some regression from the Golden Knights, but I expect goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to be a lot better in Game 3. He faced 47 shots in Game 2, so he still has an outstanding .967 save percentage in these playoffs. San Jose's Martin Jones has a .931 save percentage in the playoffs. Similar to Vegas, this series has gone a lot differently than the Sharks' first. In sweeping Anaheim, they allowed just four goals in four games. The Golden Knights obviously blew by that number in just one game and I have to say I'm surprised they have 10 goals on just 63 shots so far. Part of that was the ridiculous number of power play chances they enjoyed in Game 1. As for the Sharks, they had their own eight-goal game against the Ducks, but other than that they have not scored more than three times in regulation in any game in the playoffs. Both teams finished the regular season in the top 10 in penalty killing (San Jose #2), so as long as they cut down on the number of penalties, the # of PP goals should naturally go down. Both teams have already had 12 PPG chances in two games, which is a lot. 8* Under San Jose/Vegas |
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04-30-18 | Bruins v. Lightning -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Three home teams lost Game 1 of their respective second round series. Two of them, Washington and Nashville, were able to avenge those losses Sunday. Tampa Bay looks to keep the trend going tonight. The Lightning, who finished w/ the most points in the Eastern Conference and the best goal differential in the league, were pretty much dominated by the Bruins Saturday afternoon in a 6-2 loss. Well, except in one area. They had a 36-24 edge in shots on goal. Thus, it was a pretty head-scratching performance in goal from Andrei Vasilevskiy, who entered the series in far sharper form compared to his counterpart Tuukka Rask. Vasilevskiy finished Round 1 w/ a .941 save percentage while Rask was at a woeful .890. Even more frustrating for the Lightning is that Boston was less than 48 hrs removed from a hard-fought Game 7 win over Toronto, yet appeared to be the sharper of the two teams. I expect TB to bounce back tonight in Game 2. It was a home loss to Florida (who had NOTHING to play for) on the final day of the regular season that caught Boston first place in the Atlantic and thus gave the Lightning home ice advantage for this series. But they've now stolen back that advantage w/ the Game 1 win. Most shocking of all is that they scored five goals on only 10 shots over the final two periods. They've now beaten the Lightning in four of five head to head meetings this season and won five of their last six trips to Amelia Arena. Still though, I just can't see the Lightning dropping B2B home games. This is a team that is now 32-14-3 on home ice and won all three games here in the 1st round vs. New Jersey. Also, Tampa Bay was #1 in the league in goals scored per game (3.5) during the regular season. The key to beating Boston is neutralizing the top line of Bergeron, Pastrnak and Marchand. In the Bruins' five playoff wins, the trio has 41 points. In their three losses, they have zero. Easier said than done, but I believe the Lightning are more than capable of shutting that line down here. The Lightning do not lose B2B games very often. They had only six losing streaks all season (none more than three games!) and four of those involved a road loss. Only one time since January have they dropped B2B home games. 8* Tampa Bay |
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04-29-18 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
10* Over Penguins/Capitals (3:05 ET): Ghosts of "playoffs past" certainly seemed to rear their head yet again in Game 1 of this Penguins-Capitals series. In personally selecting the Pens for Gm 1, I wrote about the history of this rivalry in the postseason, which has been one-sided to say the least. Of the 10 all-time series these two rivals have played, the Pens have won NINE of them. So when they came back from a 2-0 deficit in the third period Thursday (won 3-2), it had to feel a bit like "old hat" for fans of the Caps. Now Washington not only lost Game 1 of their first round series (vs. Columbus), they lost the first two games. So them giving away home ice advantage and still being successful is not w/o precedent. Still, I'm not as inclined to bet against them in Game 2. Washington struck quickly in Game 1, scoring in the first 17 seconds. From there, they'd only scored one more goal. It came, ironically, in the first minute of the third period. But it was the Penguins that obviously "laughed last" w/ three goals in the final 18 minutes. Obviously, neither team generally has issues scoring. But the fact the Capitals gave up three goals - all in the third period - on just 25 shots has to be disconcerting, especially given the past playoff problems w/ the Penguins. Then again, maybe we shouldn't be all that surprised. Pittsburgh had no difficulty in finding the back of the net in their 1st round series w/ Philadelphia, scoring 28 goals in six games, including 25 in their four wins. Also, remember something else I said in my Game 1 analysis. Capitals' goalie Braden Holtby posted a career-worst .907 save percentage in the regular season. Also, remember that leading scorer Evgeni Malkin didn't even play for the Pens. He is probable to return for Game 2. Pittsburgh, as I said in the Game 1 analysis, was #1 in the league in even strength goals in the second half of the season. They also have the #1 rated power play over the course of the league. Washington has killed off 18 consecutive PP's dating back to Game 2 of the 1st round series, but that streak is due to end. This analysis may read like yet another endorsement of the Pens, but let's not forget the Caps can score too. They had more power play goals than anyone in Round 1 (33.3%). Penguins' goalie Matt Murray posted a .907 save percentage in the regular season as well, same as Holtby. 10* Over Penguins/Capitals |
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04-28-18 | Bruins v. Lightning -144 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (3:05 ET): As I mentioned yday, we've got one heck of a quartet of second round matchups in the NHL playoffs. This one is the Eastern Conference's equivalent to the Winnipeg-Nashville series out West in the sense that it matches up the two teams that had the most points in the regular season. Tampa Bay won the Atlantic Division on the final day of the regular season thanks to Boston losing at home to Florida. The Lightning finished w/ 113 points while the Bruins had 112. Arguably, it was Boston's number of OT losses (12) that probably cost them. The Bruins did take three of four from the Lightning in the regular season, but TB won the most recent meeting (here at home) in shutout fashion (4-0). That win snapped a five-game losing streak to the Bruins here on home ice. While it only took the Lightning five games to oust the Devils in Round 1, the Bruins series w/ the Maple Leafs went the distance w/ Game 7 just taking place on Wednesday. Though Boston did win 7-4, note that they actually trailed going into the third period. So there could be a case of fatigue heading into Round 2. Meanwhile, the Lightning have been off for a full week relaxing. Though the Bruins twice scored seven goals in a game during the Toronto series, it was Tampa Bay that led the league in scoring during the regular season and they are now 32-12-3 on home ice after winning all three games here in the first round series. In Games 1 & 2 vs. New Jersey, they scored five times. Tampa Bay does have the edge offensively coming into this series as they not only ranked #1 in the league in goals per game during the regular season, but their power play percentage (23.9) was slightly higher than that of the Bruins (teams ranked #3 and #4 in that department). The Lightning PP was 5 for 9 in the first three games vs. NJ, before going 0 for 10 in the final two. Boston's PP is just 2 for its last 12 and the Lightning's penalty killing was superb in Rd 1, going 16 for 19. Overall, I believe the Lightning to be the deeper team here as the Bruins are highly dependent on that top line. Tampa Bay has the stronger blue line and they definitely look to have the edge in goal as Andrei Vasilevskiy posted a .941 save percentage in Round 1 while Boston's Tuukka Rask was at a woeful .890. 8* Tampa Bay |
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04-27-18 | Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* Over Jets/Predators (8:10 ET): Of the four second round series in the NHL playoffs, this one may be the best as Winnipeg and Nashville finished w/ 114 and 117 points respectively, which was 2nd and 1st in the entire league. The Jets now carry the weight of an entire country on their skates as they are the only Canadian team left in the field. (As you may be aware, no Canadian franchise has won the Stanley Cup since Montreal did it in '93). Of course, the President's Trophy winners (Nashville) are not w/o motivation here either after losing to Pittsburgh in LY's Stanley Cup Final. I expect this to be a great series (probably goes long) and for Game 1 I don't really have any read on the side. But I do expect the game to go Over the total. These teams met five times in the regular season. Predictably, the results were close w/ the Preds winning three of the five matchups, none of which were decided by more than two goals. But what you may find surprising is how high scoring the games were. Four of the games went Over as eight or more goals were scored in each game in that quartet. The one Under, won by Nashville (here at home), was a 3-1 final. The number of shots on goal in the regular season matchups were jaw-droppingly high. Nashville averaged 35.2 shots per game while Winnipeg averaged 36.0 per game! That's a ton of shots obviously. Of course, both teams ranked in the top seven in goals per game in the regular season as well (Winnipeg 2nd). They were both inside the top three when it comes to even strength scoring. Nashville also had little difficulty scoring in its first round series vs. Colorado. It may have taken six games to oust the Avs, but the Preds averaged 3.7 goals on 35.3 shots per game. They scored at least three goals in every game but one and scored five in three of their four victories. Winnipeg only needed five games to eliminate Minnesota and is off B2B shutouts. But in their one loss in the series, the Jets did allow six goals. The Under did cash in each of the Predators' last three games, but those all had O/U lines of 6.0 and the Over is 5-1 this season when the Preds are on a streak of three or more consecutive Unders. Goalie Pekka Rinne's 1st round save percentage was only .909 and the Over is 21-15 in his 36 home starts this season. Take the Over in Game 1. 10* Over Jets/Predators |
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04-26-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -110 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Both of these teams steamrolled the opposition in Round 1, sweeping their way right into the second round. Well, maybe "steamroll" is too strong a word in the case of Vegas. The Golden Knights did sweep the Kings, but all four wins came by one goal and they scored only six regulation goals in the series. In three of the four games, they scored only one time in regulation, yet that was enough thanks to two shutouts and one OT win. But I'm "done" questioning this remarkable team which has established new benchmarks for expansion franchises across all sports. Nowhere has that been more apparent than right here in "Sin City" where the team is now 31-10-2 for the season. I'm calling for them to take Game 1. San Jose was the only lower seeded team to win a first round series, but them ousting rival Anaheim can hardly be called an "upset," even if the convincing way that they did it was surprising. They allowed just four total goals in the series, outscoring the Ducks 16-4 overall. All four wins came in regulation. But a big key for the Sharks in the 1st round was going 6 for 20 on the power play. I don't see that repeating itself here in Round 2. Goals are likely to be at a premium here overall and the fact that San Jose was only a middling 15th in even strength goals per game during the regular season may come back to haunt them. Remember that they are without Joe Thornton as well. Against the Kings, Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury posted a ridiculous 0.65 GAA as well as a .977 save percentage w/ two shutouts. That topped San Jose's Martin Jones, who had a 1.00 GAA and .970 save percentage. Vegas was 3-0-1 against San Jose in the regular season, taking both games at home. Something interesting to note here is that while the Golden Knights are 29-15 SU when facing teams w/ a winning record, the Sharks are below .500 in such games this year. That's even after sweeping Anaheim. San Jose was also outshot by Anaheim in Rd 1. They were outscored on the road this year too while Vegas has outscored its visitors by more than a full goal per game. Yes, eventually the cinderella Vegas team will turn back into a pumpkin. Just not here. 8* Vegas |
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04-26-18 | Penguins +111 v. Capitals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 111 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): A first round that was bereft of any true upsets has left us w/ four very good quarterfinal matchups in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This one is interesting in that the team w/ the home ice advantage (Washington) is considered a slight underdog (for the series) even though they won the Metropolitan Division by five points over Pittsburgh. But the Penguins have certainly had the Capitals' number is past playoffs and that's putting it mildly. Of the 10 series these two rivals have played, the Pens have won NINE of them. In fact, they've eliminated the Caps each of the last two years en route to winning the Stanley Cup. They also finished w/ a slight better goal differential in the regular season, have the #1 power play in the league and were the hotter team down the stretch. I also give them the edge at even strength. Give me Pittsburgh in Game 1. Now I'm well aware that the Pens will be w/o two key "cogs" for tonight's series opener. Both Evgeni Malkin (team's leading scorer in the regular season) & Carl Hagelin (key part of PK unit) have been ruled out here due to undisclosed injuries. However, Pittsburgh had little problems scoring in the 1st round series vs. Philadelphia (28 goals in six games) that even a player of Malkin's caliber being out will not hurt them. Over the second half of the season, this team is #1 in the league in goals scored at even strength. In their four wins over the Flyers, they scored 25 times, a stunning number. Now Philly's goaltending was atrocious, but Washington has its own issues between the pipes. After not starting Game 1 of the first round series vs. Columbus, Braden Holtby was able to come in and "bail" the team out. However, Holtby also posted a career-worst .907 save percentage in the regular season. Remember that Washington dropped the first two games, both at home, in its first round series w/ Columbus. Led by Holtby, they roared back to take four straight over the Blue Jackets, but two of the wins came in overtime. The Capitals were actually outscored at even strength by C-bus, but the power play was magnificent as every game saw them score at least once w/ the man advantage. Overall, the Caps scored nine power play goals in the series. Problem here though is Pittsburgh had the top PP in the league during the regular season. The Penguins' blue line is also arguably stronger now than it has been either of the last two years. Against the Flyers, they allowed an average of only 24.2 shots per game. While they did allow five goals in the close out game Sunday (won 8-5), the Pens are 27-9 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game. 10* Pittsburgh |
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04-25-18 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Maple Leafs/Bruins (7:40 ET): Of the eight 1st round series in this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, this one had the most total points between the two teams from the regular season. So in that regard, maybe we shouldn't be surprised that this thing has gone the distance, bringing us to a Game 7 Wednesday night in Boston. However, the Bruins (who certainly were on my short-list for potential Cup winners) have to enter tonight already feeling like they've let some opportunities "slip away." They led the series 3-1 before dropping Games 5 and 6 by scores of 4-3 and 3-1 respectively. That puts their back against the wall here, but at least they're at home where they've lost in regulation only nine times all year. I do favor the Bruins in this spot, but don't like the price. Therefore, to the total we go and I expect this game to be higher scoring than anticipated. So, take the Over. These teams have now met 10 times this season and the majority of those games have been high-scoring. None have featured fewer than four total goals scored and there's never been an instance where the teams combined for fewer than five in B2B contests. So the fact Game 6 was a 3-1 final pretty much "telegraphs" we should expect a higher-scoring game tonight. Boston has averaged 3.5 goals per game in the series and averages 3.7 gpg for the year here on home ice. That home average is third highest in the league, so we should certainly be able to count on the Bruins to hold "their end of the bargain" here. As for their situation between the pipes, goalie Tukka Rask has not been particularly sharp in this series (.909 save percentage) and he's definitely struggled the L4 games (.894 save percentage), most notably when he was pulled in Game 5 (last time here at home). Toronto, like Boston, ranked in the top six in goals per game in the league during the regular season. They actually ranked higher at 3rd overall. However, while Boston ranked 4th in the number in goals allowed per game, Toronto was outside the top 10. That's largely owed to the number of shots they allow, which has gotten no better in this series. They've allowed an average of 34.5 shots per game so far w/ the Bruins getting 40 or more in three of the six games. Frederik Andersen has definitely kept his team in the series, but the Over is also 20-12 this season in road starts made by the Leafs' netminder. Back to Rask; he's just 5-11 SU in elimination games in his career, including 1-2 in Game 7's. So he's come up small in this spot before, even allowing four goals on 28 shots in his one Game 7 win, which came in 2013 against ... Toronto. 10* Over Maple Leafs/Bruins |
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04-23-18 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 101 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Capitals/Blue Jackets (7:35 ET): Here's what I wrote in my analysis prior to Game 5, which wound up being a 4-3 overtime win for the Caps: "It's about time the home team won a game in this series, no?" That's precisely what they did, though for a fourth time in the series, things did go to OT. Winners of the last three games in this series (two in OT), Washington can now close Columbus out, but must do so on the road. Given how this series has gone (road team won each of the first four games), maybe that's not such a big deal, but at the same time I'm not sure I see the Blue Jackets losing a third straight home game. Seeing as how every game in the series has seen at least five total goals scored, Over seems like the most logical call here and that's the way I'll go. Overtime has been the rule, not the exception, in this series. But something novel did take place in Game 5 and that was Columbus actually finishing with the edge in shots on goal. It was 42-29, the most shots on goal the Blue Jackets have had in any individual game in the series. Not that it ended up mattering though. They needed a late goal in the third period to force OT. Their only lead of the game came on a short-handed goal that opened the scoring in the 1st period. That said, they've scored at least three goals in regulation in all but one game in the series. They get Alexander Wennberg back for Game 5 (missed previous three games). Wennberg is the team's second line center and can also help on the power play, an area desperately need of some assistance for Columbus. They've gone 0 for the last 12 after scoring four times w/ the man advantage in the first two games. Washington has scored a PP goal in every game in this series. Not a surprise, they ranked 7th in that department in the regular season. There have been a lot of shots in this series w/ the Caps averaging 39.0 per game. That's making life difficult for Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who has allowed 17 goals total in the five games. Braden Holtby, who didn't start the first two games for Washington between the pipes, has come in and helped turn the tide w/ a .936 save percentage in the series. The team has won all three of his starts, but remember he also posted an .895 save percentage on the road during the regular season. While the Caps are 6-2 Over their last eight games, the Blue Jackets are 9-2 Over their last 11. 10* Over Capitals/Blue Jackets |
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04-22-18 | Predators -170 v. Avalanche | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
8* Nashville (7:00 ET): The top-seeded Predators had a chance to close out the 8th seeded Avs at home on Friday, but failed to do so, instead losing by a score of 2-1. They gave up both goals in the final five minutes and even more head-scratching was the fact they lost despite a 45-27 edge in shots, plus they were going against a backup goaltender. But the "good ol' Hamburgler," Andrew Hammond, came up huge for Colorado w/ a playoff career-high 44 saves. The good news for the Preds is they have another chance to close the Avs out Sunday. However, they'll need to do it Denver where the Avs are now 29-12-2 (split Games 3 and 4 here). I think the Preds will be up to the challenge though as they have experienced only one losing streak in the last two months. The Avs can't overcome this goaltending situation again, can they? Certainly not if they give up another 45 shots they can't. Just to bring everyone up to speed, #1 netminder Semyon Varlamov was lost to a season-ending knee injury late in the regular season. Backup Jonathan Bernier went down earlier in this series w/ an upper-body injury. Enter Hammond, who turned in the yeoman's effort in Game 5. But I wouldn't bet on him doing it again. Also, Colorado became the first team to win a playoff game in regulation when entering the final five minutes trailing since 2013. They also don't have top defensemen Erik Johnson in this series either. Really, I'm pretty surprised that they've gotten thus far. Nashville didn't fail in a single close out game in LY's run to the Stanley Cup Final. The Preds have also beaten the Avs in 13 of the previous 15 encounters. They did win here at the Pepsi Center in Game 4, 3-2, and are now 26-10-7 on the road for the season (one of the best marks in the league, fewest # of regulation losses). This team was #2 in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. Goalie Pekka Rinne has not had his finest hour in this series, but I expect him to bounce back after faltering late in Game 4. His save percentage on the road is a pretty ridiculous .932. I'll call for Nashville to advance and play Winnipeg. 8* Nashville |
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04-21-18 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals -160 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
10* Washington (3:05 ET): It's about time the home team won a game in this series, no? The Caps have the momentum now coming off B2B wins in Columbus, the last of which was a 4-1 beatdown that caused Blue Jackets' HC John Tortorella to curtly say "We laid an egg." That Game 4 victory was the first in the series NOT to go to overtime. Washington has outshot C-bus in all four games and also scored at least one time on the power play (in all 4 games) as well. So the arguement can be made that they've been the better team here. They were, of course, the better team in the regular season as well by finishing first in the Metropolitan Division. Given the Capitals' "playoff rep," I've been highly impressed w/ how they've bounced back in this series and I like them to take Game 5 back here in the Nation's Capital. Note that Washington has scored first in all four games of the series. They actually blew a two-goal lead in Game 1 while Columbus lost three players to injury. Game 2 saw the Caps post a massive 58-30 edge in shots on goal and go 3 for 7 on the PP, yet they again blew a 2-0 lead. Game 3 is when the "tide turned," however, as it took a lucky bounce of the puck in double overtime to finally get the Caps a win. In retrospect, that may end up as the play that saved their season. Game 4 was a far more "complete effort," as they limited the Blue Jackets to just 24 shots on goal and took advantage of numerous mistakes. One would now logically think they are poised to take control of this series. The Caps were top 10 in both goals scored and allowed at home in the regular season, so them dropping both games here so far in the series was highly irregular. Of course, so too is the road team winning the first four games of a series. Columbus was actually #2 in the league in goals allowed at home during the regular season, so the results of Games 3 and 4 have to be especially disappointing. All of a sudden, goalie Sergei Bobrovsky looked quite "mortal" and remember he did allow seven goals in the two games here earlier in the series. I'm not surprised that Washington has enjoyed the edge on special teams in this series either; C-bus ranked 25th on the power play and 26th in penalty killing during the regular season. Remember that this is a young team, so w/ all the OT games, they're likely taxed. Also, no team has been short-handed more often this postseason. 10* Washington |
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04-20-18 | Wild +1.5 v. Jets | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Minnesota (7:40 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Wild +1.5. This is a pretty cheap price on a team as good as Minnesota, getting an additional 1.5 goals to work with. Yes, the overall outlook is looking rather bleak after a Game 4 loss (2-0) that puts them down 3-1 in the series and having to make a return trip to Winnipeg where the host Jets are an outstanding 34-7-2 SU for the year. But, as much as I leaned on the simple concept of home ice advantage for previous plays in this series, the anticipation of the Jets closing things out has led to a ridiculously inflated price for Game 5 and the PL now becomes a viable option. Maybe this is Minnesota's final game, but I see them doing no worse than a one-goal loss in this spot. The last time a team wearing Winnipeg Jets' sweaters had a 3-1 series lead was 1992 (!) against the Vancouver Canucks. They failed to close out that series and have never advanced since. (To be fair, the franchise went away for some time, before resurfacing as the Atlanta Thrashers). So tonight is going to be a REALLY big deal in Manitoba. But, the pressure is on and the Jets will have to win w/o three of their top four blueliners. Already w/o Toby Enstrom and Dmitri Kulikov (both injured), the team will now have to deal with the suspension Josh Morrisey (for a cross-check in Game 3). Furthemore, a fourth defensemen (Tyler Myers) is also listed as questionable for this game. That's a lot of key personnel missing for a game aainst what will be a very desperate Wild team. Minnesota has typically bounced back this year after a poor offensive effort as their record is 12-5 SU after being held to one goal or fewer in their previous game. Case in point, they scored six times in Game 3 (following a 4-1 loss in Game 2), chasing the previously red-hot Connor Hellebuyck. Despite being badly outshot in those first two games, the Wild remained competitive, which is a mark in their favor. Devan Dubnyk has actually outplayed Hellebuyck in this series (.930 save percentage to .899) and I just can't see Minnesota going down w/o a fight in this one. 8* Puck Line Minnesota (+1.5) |
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04-19-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs +104 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:10 ET): It sure appears as if most of these first round series in the NHL playoffs won't be lasting very long. However, this one - a matchup of two 100+ point teams from the regular season - has the potential to do so. I say that as someone who had Boston in Game 1 (cashed 'em!) and called them "undervalued." But the scene has since shifted to Toronto where the Maple Leafs picked up a "must-win" in Game 3, 4-2, on Monday. After the team gave up 12 goals in the first two games, netminder Frederik Andersen stepped up huge for the Leafs in that last game, making 40 saves. The Leafs must do a better job at limiting the number of shot attempts by the Bruins and I think they will in what is another virtual "must-win" spot Thursday night. Making this a virtual "must-win" is the fact that Toronto doesn't dare go back to Boston down 3-1 in the series. It would be "all over but the shouting" at that point considering the Bruins' 28-8-5 home record. But as was shown in Game 3, Boston is far more vulnerable on the road where they've gone 22-12-8 for the year. They've lost five straight on the road dating back to the end of the regular season. Furthermore, the home team has won the last five meetings between these Atlantic Division rivals. Toronto is 30-10-2 SU at home this year and outscoring teams by nearly a goal per game. They were top 10 in the league in goals per game at home during the regular season, Boston ironically being one of the teams ahead of them. Toronto's top line did not play well in the two games in Boston, but led the way in Game 3, Auston Matthews in particular. It should also be pointed out how much of a factor the Bruins' power play was in the first two games of the series. They went 5 for 10 w/ the man advantage, a really high success rate on an abnormal number of chances for the playoffs. They had only one power play in Game 3 and failed to score. Assuming Toronto can once again stay out of the box, they should be in good shape here. After accounting for a ridiculous 20 pts in the first two games, the Bruins' top line was shutout in Game 3. Those kind of things can happen when a series shifts venues and I like the home team to win for a fourth straight time in this series tonight. 10* Toronto |
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04-18-18 | Ducks v. Sharks OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Ducks/Sharks (10:35 ET): In calling for San Jose to take Game 3 (they did, 8-1!), I said it was "high time" that the trend of the road team winning in this Pacific Division rivalry would come to an end. Prior to Monday night's result, the road team had won five straight head to head matchups between these two, obviously including the first two games of this best of seven series. Going back to last season, the road team was on a 7-1 head to head run. With their more than convincing win here on home ice in Gm 3, San Jose can now join Vegas in the Western Conference Quarterfinals w/ another win tonight. There was also another trend that halted w/ that Game 3 result, that being the Under going 5-1-3 the previous nine meetings. While its hard to imagine Anaheim "getting off the mat" after the Game 3 beatdown, Over is my call for Game 4. There have been plenty of shots on goal in this series, particularly in Game 3. Obviously, the deluge of Sharks' goals was the story from Game 3 as they scored eight times on 36 shots. But, somewhat "lost in the box score" is that Anaheim had 46 shots on goal. Yet they could only beat Martin Jones once as the San Jose goalie now has a remarkable .970 save percentage for the series. That number has to come down, no? Anaheim, which has found the back of the net just three times this entire series, is due to start scoring more especially if they can get anywhere near the number of shots off that they did in Game 3. However, the big concern is between the pipes where it appears like goalie John Gibson is still being affected by a late season injury. He gave up five goals (on 24 shots) in Gm 3. In relief, Ryan Miller was no better, allowing in three goals on 12 shots. San Jose got a ton of power play chances in Game 3 and made the most of them, converting four of eight opportunities. Obviously, that's something we shouldn't expected to be duplicated here. But it doesn't have to be w/ such a low O/U line. Anaheim has given up a ton of goals in games before (gave up six or more goals 5x in the reg season). The last three times they've given up at least six goals, the Over has cashed the next time out every time. Whether or not San Jose finishes off the sweep here, I do expect the goal distribution to be a lot more even, with Anaheim scoring more goals in this game than any of the previous three. But w/ the Sharks also scoring at least three times in every game in this series, it might not be enough. 10* Over Ducks/Sharks |
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04-17-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings -121 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -121 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
8* Los Angeles (10:35 ET): The Kings' backs are against the wall, down 0-3 in this series. Truth be told, I thought this first round matchup was tailor-made for an upset by the lower seed. But Vegas has been defying expectations throughout this historical expansion year, so what's another milestone? That said, all three games have been decided by just one goal. These teams have played seven times this year including the regular season and five of those have been one goal games. Four of those five have been won by the Golden Knights. That doesn't seem right. I'm prepared to go "down with the ship" with a Kings team that ranked #1 in the league in both goals allowed and penalty killing during the regular season. The Kings significantly outshot the Golden Knights in Game 3, 39-26, and blanked them for two periods. But then the damn broke as they allowed three quick goals to open the third period. At that point, their fate was largely sealed, though they did bounce back w/ a goal of their own. They also outshot the Golden Knights in Game 1. Now they were badly outshot in Game 2, but still managed to take the game into double overtime. Goaltender Jonathan Quick, save for the third period of the last game, has done his best to keep his team in this series, posting a .945 save percentage. I wouldn't go writing him and his team off just yet. Will they come back to win the series? Probably not. But they can definitely avoid a sweep. Consider Quick allowed just three goals in the series prior to the three-goal barrage by Vegas in the third period Sunday. That's eight periods + two OT sessions (201 minutes total). You have no choice but to tip your cap to this Vegas team, but there's been a reasonable amount of good fortune go their way in this first season. The Kings' own offense is due to pick up here w/ their backs against the wall. As I said prior to Game 3, this is their longest losing streak since mid-February. I can't see a team that I felt might win the series get swept. 8* Los Angeles |
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04-17-18 | Jets v. Wild -109 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I could essentially reprint my Game 3 analysis here and all of it would still apply. In fact, if you go back to Game 1 where I took Winnipeg, my read on this series has remained unchanged. It's all boils down to home ice when you're talking about the Jets and the Wild. While Winnipeg was a league-best 31-7-2 on home ice in the regular season, they are just a "ho-hum" 20-13-8 on the road. And while Minnesota is only 18-20-3 on the road, they are 27-6-8 here at the XCel Center. That was the fewest number of regulation losses in the entire league during the regular season. Furthermore, while the Jets may have the highest scoring average at home in the entire league (3.8 goals per game), no team allows FEWER goals per game than do the Wild (2.17). For a third time in this series (didn't play Game 2), I'm on the home team. Down 0-2 in the series and desperate for a win, the Wild responded "in kind" in Game 3. They won 6-2 w/ all of those goals scored in the first two periods (four in 2nd period), knocking the Jets' previously red hot goaltender Connor Hellebuyck out of the game. It was the most goals ever scored by the Wild in a playoff home game in franchise history. But, as stated above, it's typically all about the goaltending at the XCel Center and that means Devan Dubnyk. He stopped 29 of 31 shots in Game 3 and now has a .927 save percentage for the year here at home. The team has won 24 of his 34 home starts overall. Winnipeg didn't lose often down the stretch, so I can understand some trepidation about betting against them off a loss. But Minnesota is a really tough home team. Then there's the fact that the home team has won seven of the previous head to head meetings between these teams. There is just no reason to expect that trend won't continue here in Game 4. 10* Minnesota |
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04-16-18 | Ducks v. Sharks -136 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
10* San Jose (10:35 ET): At some point, the road team "has" to stop winning in this SoCal rivalry. Going back to the regular season, the road team has won five straight when the Sharks and Ducks matchup. Unfortunately for the Ducks, four of those games have been played in Anaheim, including the first two of this best of seven series. They now have their backs up against the wall as the series shifts to The Shark Tank w/ San Jose holding a commanding 2-0 series lead. So all that late season work to pass the Sharks for second in the Pacific is now for naught and I find it hard to believe the Ducks can fight back to make a series out of this, given they've already lost twice at home. Look for the Ducks to take a commanding 3-0 series lead after tonight.  Anaheim's 18 road wins during the regular season was tied for third fewest among all playoff teams (only Colorado and Pittsburgh had fewer). The fact they went 26-10-5 SU at home in the regular season, only to drop both Games 1 and 2 has to be disconcerting to say the least. Goaltender John Gibson, who suffered an injury late in the regular season, does not appear to be his normal self in this series. He's stopped only 63 of 69 shots, falling well short of the standard set by his counterpart Martin Jones, who has stopped 53 of the 55 shots he's faced for a .964 save percentage. Having only found the back of the net twice in two games, the Ducks are really searching for answers right now and it's difficult to imagine them getting things corrected now that they're on the road.  Meanwhile, we should expect Jones to continue his strong play between the pipes as he's allowed only eight goals total in his last four home starts against the Ducks. Anaheim's top two wingers - Corey Perry and Rickard Rakell are both without a point through two games. Only one defensemen - Hampus Lindholm - even has a point for the team. So the Ducks' best players simply aren't producing right now and this may simply be a series that was tailor-made for the Sharks as they are now 23-8 SU against the rest of the division this season including 5-1 vs. the Ducks. Though they did cede second place to them late in the season, it was San Jose that still finished w/ a better regular season goal differential as well. 10* San Jose |
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04-15-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
10* Los Angeles (10:35 ET): You rarely see any team, let alone the Kings (known for heavy puck possession) yield 56 shots on goal in a game. But that's what happened in Game 2 of this series. Yet, LA was still able to take Vegas into double overtime before falling 2-1. It was another one-goal loss in Game 1 (1-0). But as we know, the Golden Knights have had the "magic touch" in Sin City in this, their expansion season (they are now 31-10-2 SU at home). But now the scene shifts to the City of Angels and I suspect the Kings will handle their business. The current losing streak is their first since mid-February. Need I remind you that the Kings finished the regular season #1 in goals allowed and #1 in penalty killing? They will take Game 3. Don't forget that the Kings had to play w/o Drew Doughty, their top defensemen, in Game 2. His one-game suspension has been served and I suspect his return will provide a major boost to a team that should need no added motivation. Jonathan Quick played his heart out Friday, stopping 54 of 56 shots. The offense HAS to improve after being held to just one goal in two games + two additional overtime sessions. Keep in mind that many were predicting the Kings would win this series prior to it commencing. Though down 0-2, I think it would be grossly unfair to go writing this team off before losing a home game. Four of the six head to head meetings between these two this year have been decided by one goal. Three of those have gone the Golden Knights way. While they did significantly outshoot the Kings in Game 2, you could certainly say that beating them three times by just one goal is pretty fortunate. The Kings did outshoot them, 30-28, in Game 1. I really do think the fact that the Kings were #1 in goals allowed during the regular season and #1 in penalty killing matters moving forward. I've seen nothing thus far to sway from thinking it's going to be tough for the Golden Knights to score in this series, especially on the road. I look for the Kings offense to wake up here at home and the team breaks through here at the Staples Center. 10* Los Angeles |
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