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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-15-18 | Jets v. Wild -105 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): The Wild return home down 0-2 and desperate for a win. But as I mentioned in my Game 1 analysis (had Winnipeg), home ice advantage is likely to prove critical in this best of seven series. While Winnipeg was a league-best 31-7-2 on home ice in the regular season, they are just a "ho-hum" 20-13-8 on the road. And while Minnesota is only 18-20-3 on the road, they are 27-6-8 here at the XCel Center. That was the fewest number of regulation losses in the entire league during the regular season. Furthermore, while the Jets may have the highest scoring average at home in the entire league (3.8 goals per game), no team allows FEWER goals per game than do the Wild (2.17). Home ice is the key for Game 3. Given all of the above information, this seems like a great price on Minnesota in this spot. Let's also throw in the fact that they are 10-0 the L10 times they've been off B2B losses. For the year, they are 13-1 SU in that spot, which is pretty remarkable (only one three-game losing streak all season). So while Winnipeg has been the hot team in the Western Conference over the last month or so, let's not go writing off the Wild just yet, okay? Also impressive is how many goals the Wild are usually good for when coming off B2B losses. The last five times they've dropped B2B games, they've come back and scored no fewer than four goals each of the next time out. Throw in how stingy netminder Devan Dubnyk is at home (.927 save percentage, 23-10 record) and it seems like we have a winning combo. Now, I should mention how the Wild have been badly outshot in the first two games. It's an 84-37 advantage for the Jets in that area. The Wild's lone goal in Game 2 came via the power play. However, it should be noted that they only trailed 1-0 going into the third period. In Game 1, they even led in the final period following two quick goals. So as bad as they've played so far in this series and as good as Winnipeg is at home, the Wild have been right there for most of the two games. The Jets typically give up a lot more shots per game on the road while their scoring average comes down significantly. Going back to the final meeting of last season, the home team is 6-1 the last 7 head to head matchups. Can't stress the importance of home ice enough here and w/ their backs against the wall, it makes sense to go w/ the Wild here. 8* Minnesota |
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04-14-18 | Avalanche v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
10* Over Avalanche/Predators (3:05 ET): The top-seeded Preds took Game 1 by a score of 5-2, breaking the game open in the third period w/ three goals. The President's Trophy winners actually trailed early, both 1-0 and 2-1. Yet, this series is being very much priced as if the oddsmakers are anticipating a sweep as Nashville comes into Game 2 as a monster favorite on home ice. Obviously, they're "unplayable" at the current price, but the Over provides us w/ a solid value. These teams have a history of going Over against one another as 12 of the last 15 head to head meetings have gone that well, including each of the last four. Nashville has scored at least four goals in six of its last seven games overall. Take the Over. Colorado absolutely appears "up against it" tonight as they were not a good road team during the regular season. They went 15-19-7 SU away from home before dropping Game 1 and remember they are w/o their top goaltender, Semyon Varlamov, who is done for the season due to injury. The Varlamov injury puts alot of pressure on backup Jonathan Bernier, whose individual performances on the road do not exactly inspire as he has an .896 save percentage for the year. As a team, the Avs give up 3.4 goals per game away from home and among playoff teams, they allow one of the highest shot totals per game as well. It's difficult to imagine Nashville not scoring multiple times here in Game 2. The Over is also 31-17 this season when Colorado is playing w/ revenge. Nashville averages 3.5 goals per game at home for the year, so again, we know they'll get theirs. They may not score five times again like they did in Game 1, but we also probably won't need them to. Colorado also came into this series w/o the services of top defensemen Erik Johnson, which obviously hurts on the backend. At the same time, it's also difficult to imagine Colorado going 0 for 3 on the power play again. The Avs ranked 8th when on the man advantage during the regular season, so that was a big disappointment in Game 1. But the team does have to be encouraged somewhat by being able to take an early lead. The Avs did rank 10th in the legaue in goals per game during the regular season overall. I look for another high scoring affair here in Game 2. 10* Over Avalanche/Predators |
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04-13-18 | Kings v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Kings/Golden Knights (10:05 ET): Thanks to a 1-0 final (in favor of Vegas) in Game 1, we've got a lower O/U line to work with for Game 2. Now I recognize that there's a lot of work to be done from Game 1 to get this one Over despite the 1/2 goal drop. And I did take the Kings Wednesday in large part due to their #1 ranking in goals allowed and penalty killing from the regular season. But, keep in mind the teams combined to go 0 for 6 on the power play in the series opener. This is the 1st time all season that a Vegas home game has a total of 5.0 attached to it and there must be something about Friday nights on the strip as the Over is 13-1 here on Friday nights. Meanwhile, the Kings are 3-0 Over in road games if the O/U line is 5.0. Take the Over. Vegas averages 3.5 goals per game at home. That's fourth most in the league. So I'm not necessarily fearful of them being able to get goals tonight even though they were held to just one in Game 1 and the Kings generally do a great job at keeping the opponent from finding the back of the net. Goltending, however, is a concern. Marc-Andre Fleury is a playoff veteran and made 30 saves in Game 1. But let's see if he can "do it again" here. Getting back to Vegas' ability to score, there has never been a three-game stretch all season where the team was held to one or fewer goals in three straight ganes. They lost their regular season finale 7-1 to Calgary, so I'm looking for the offense to bounce back in a major way tonight. The last time the Golden Knights were held to just one goal in B2B games, they came back the next time out and scored four times. The Kings must play Game 2 w/o defenseman Drew Doughty, so they're definitely weaker along the blueline here. Similar to Vegas, LA typically bounces back offensively after a weak showing the previous game. The last time they were shutout (prior to Game 1) was 3.17 and they came right back and scored four times the next game. In fact, Game 1 was only the fifth time the Kings have been shutout all season and the Over is a perfect 3-0 after the L3 times it happened. Let's take advantage of the low total here and go Over. 10* Over Kings/Golden Knights |
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04-12-18 | Sharks v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Sharks/Ducks (10:05 ET): A late push from Anaheim (won final 5 reg season games) allowed them to pass San Jose for second in the Pacific and thus earn home ice advantage for this first round playoff series. These Southern California rivals obviously know each other well and this figures to be a tightly contested series. The Ducks may be the hotter team, but the Sharks still finished w/ a slightly better goal differential for the year. Also, prior to dropping five of six to end the regular season, San Jose happened to have won eight in a row. There is also an injury concern for Anaheim in goal as John Gibson got hurt late in the regular season. I have no read on the side here, but do like the game to go Over the total as this is the lowest Gm 1 O/U on the board. Anaheim actually gives up more shots than they take, which could come back to bite them down the road. Right now, the biggest question is Gibson's health. Gibson posted a career-best 31 wins in the regular season to go along w/ a 2.43 GAA. Reportedly, he is a "viable option" for Game 1, but having not played since 4/1, might he be rusty? The thinking is that Ryan Miller's postseason experience will make the Gibson injury a non-factor, but I'm no so sure about that. San Jose has its own issues in goal right now as Martin Jones posted a career-worst GAA (2.55) this season and closed w/ a terrible .875 save percentage his L4 starts. Backup Aaron Dell is always an option, but he has zero postseason starts to his name. These teams played four times in the regular season and three of the games went to shootouts. Ironically, all three of those games that went to a shootout stayed Under the total. The other game was a 6-2 San Jose win. The Under has cashed in 8 of the last 9 head to head meetings overall and the Ducks were a strong Under team during the regular season. Still, San Jose went Over in each of its final three regular season games and the O/U line was never this low for any of the regular season matchups. With the goaltending issues on both sides, I see some real value on the Over here in what should be a tightly contested series. It should definitely take at least three goals to win this game. 10* Over Sharks/Ducks |
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04-12-18 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -153 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): The Bruins missed out on a shot to earn home ice advantage throughout the Eastern Conference half of the draw when they lost to the Florida Panthers in the final game of the regular season. It was a rather shocking defeat in that it came at home against a team that had nothing to play for. Boston's "punishment" for failing to finish first in the East is an opening round series w/ Toronto. There's some irony here as by finishing 1st in the East, Tampa Bay plays a New Jersey team they were 0-3 SU against in the regular season. But there's no denying that the Maple Leafs are a tougher draw from the Bruins than the Devils would have been. I've seen many thinking "upset" in this series as the Leafs went 3-1 vs. the Bruins in the regular season, but I'm on the home team for Game 1. Boston outscored its opponents by 56 goals in the regular season and ranked in the top six in goals scored, goals allowed, power play and penalty killing. They are a legit Cup contender and have a home record of 28-8-5. That's the fewest regulation losses at home of any team in the East and they've outscored visiting teams here by more than a full goal per game. I'm not concerned w/ the 1-4 slide to end the regular season nor the 1-3 record vs. Toronto from the regular season. Tuukka Rask had a .924 even strength save percentage in the regular season, winning 34 of 53 starts. His career save percentage in the playoffs is an impressive .928. Toronto is a talented young team w/ plenty of depth, but they are weak along the blue line and the issue has always been giving up far too many shots on goal. We started to see the ramifications of that as goalie Frederik Andersen began to struggle in March. Toronto allows the most shots per game of all playoff teams at 33.9 and that likely comes back to bite them in the postseason. While many will cite the series five years ago as a motivating factor for the Leafs, hardly any players remain from that team. I see a Boston team that was eliminated in the 1st round last year as being more motivated, especially w/ all the upset chatter that has surrounded this series. 8* Boston |
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04-11-18 | Kings +120 v. Golden Knights | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): To me, of the eight first round playoff series, this is the one w/ the most upset potential. Vegas has been an incredible story in its expansion year, winning the Pacific Division w/ 109 points (led virtually wire to wire), but they are probably one of the more vulnerable high seeds in recent NHL playoff history. It certainly doesn't help that they have a tough first round draw vs. the battle-tested Kings. The Golden Knights quickly developed a home ice edge (how much that has to do w/ opposing teams being in Vegas is a matter of conjecture), but LA happens to come in w/ one of the better road marks in the league (22-14-5). The regular season goal differentials of these two teams was not all that different. I like the Kings to steal Game 1. Truthfully, the Golden Knights were decidedly mediocre over the second half of the season. They went just 22-14-5 overall following the All-Star Break, but had already built a big enough division lead that they were never really threatened to drop out of first place. But the playoffs are a different animal. They do have a goaltender w/ plenty of postseason experience in Marc-Andre Fleury, but even there the Kings would seem to have an edge as they ranked #1 in the league in both goals allowed and penalty killing during the regular season. Their goalie Jonathan Quick has won multiple Stanley Cup as well and his resume needs no introduction either. In fact, Quick probably had his best regular season in years. These teams split four regular season meetings, each side winning once at home and on the road. Two of the games went to OT and each won one of those. Vegas showed some vulnerability late in the regular season, ending w/ losses to Edmonton and Calgary (two non-playoff teams). LA also won here late in the regular season, 4-1. Had I told you before the start of the season that Vegas would be favored in a playoff game over Los Angeles, you would have had me committed. This is a really bad matchup for the Golden Knights. 10* Los Angeles |
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04-11-18 | Wild v. Jets -169 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
8* Winnipeg (7:05 ET): The Jets just might be Canada's best hope of ending that embarrassing quarter-century long drought of not hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup. This team comes into the playoffs red hot, having won five straight and 11 of their last 12. They are the only team in the league to finish the regular season in the top five for both goals scored and allowed. Only division rival Nashville had more points (117 to 114) and only Tampa Bay had a better overall scoring differential (+60 to +59). While the Jets may not have been able to win the Central Division, they do have home ice advantage for this first round playoff series and that's huge as their record here in Manitoba is 32-7-2. That's the best home record in the league. I like them tonight in Gm 1. Minnesota is a team you'd favor over most, but not here w/o the home ice advantage. The Wild actually took fewer regulation losses at home than did the Jets (only six), but dropped 14 games overall in the Twin Cities. That home record is still really nice, but they're below .500 on the road w/ a pretty significant deficit in goals scored vs. allowed. In fact, they allow 3.5 goals per game away from home this year. That likely comes back to bite them here against a Jets club that averages 3.9 goals per game in this building. The home ice advantage is huge here w/ a rabid crowd looking to see a playoff win in person for the first time since the franchise returned. These teams played four times in the regular season and the Jets won three of them, including both here at home. The scores were 7-2 and 4-3. Now, somewhat surprisingly, they have not faced off since January and that was the only meeting going all the way back to November. But what's scary for the WIld is how much stronger Winnipeg looks now. Connor Hellebuyck has a 30-7 SU record at home and comes in w/ .938 save percentage his last four starts. Minnesota is w/o a key defensemen (Ryan Suter), which really hurts them in this series and true to overall team form Devan Dubnyk sees his save percentage plummet on the road, all the way down to .908. The home ice advantage makes all the difference in Game 1 of this series (and possibly Game 2 too?). 8* Winnipeg |
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04-07-18 | Canucks v. Oilers -185 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
8* Edmonton (10:05 ET): This is a nothing regular season finale as neither team is making the playoffs. For the Oilers, that fact has to be terribly disappointing. Their Cup-starved fans came into this season w/ the thought that this would be one of the top teams in the entire league. That simply did not happen as they instead regressed big-time from last year's breakthrough campaign. I do anticipate "they'll be back" next year, but first I'll take them in the final game of 2017-18 as they're at home and playing an inferior foe. Vancouver was expected to be bad coming into the year and they have not "disappointed." The Sedin twins have announced their retirement, so tonight marks the final time we will see either of them. Curiously, the Canucks have played some inspired hockey of late, winning five of the last six. That's much different from Edmonton, who has lost five of six. But they are not a good road team and they've lost five of their six trips here. Oilers' goalie Cam Talbot has had their number recently going 4-0-1 w/ a 1.18 GAA and two shutouts his last five starts against them. Just because the Oilers as a team have disappointed doesn't mean certain individuals have. Last year's MVP Conor McDavid is set to make it B2B scoring titles. He's turned in 14 three-point games this season. He had three assists in the win over Vegas last time out. Vancouver also won 4-3 its last time out, but that was at home against Arizona and they are just 9-17 SU this season after scoring four or more goals the previous game. 8* Edmonton |
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04-05-18 | Avalanche v. Sharks -175 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
8* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Sharks lost again (fourth straight), this time at home, Tuesday night. It was an especially painful setback when you consider they were facing a Dallas team that had just been eliminated from playoff contention and also spotted a two-goal lead. The Stars' Jamie Benn turned in a hat trick, the final two goals coming in the final five minutes of regulation and that was the difference. But there's no time for "crying over spilled milk" here as San Jose needs a win to ensure the likelihood of having home ice advantage in a first round playoff series. They are 24-12-3 at home this year, so the loss Tuesday was the exception and not the "rule," but lead third place Anaheim and fourth place Los Angeles (two prospective 1st rd opponents) by just one and two points respectively. Seven playoff spots in the Western Conference have been clinched, leaving just one up for grabs and it will go to either Colorado or St. Louis. Right now, the Avs have a one-point advantage, but they'll be hosting the Blues in what could be a winner take all game Saturday. The Avalanche's playoff hopes took a big blow last week when goaltender Semyon Varlamov was lost for the regular season. That was a big reason why I played against them at Anaheim on Sunday and despite being spotted an early lead, they could not hold and lost in overtime, 4-3. Then, they lost to the Kings the following night, 3-1. While they've had two days off to try and recoup, this is Colorado's third consecutive road game (over a five-day span) and note they are definitely nowhere near as strong on the road (15-18-7) as they are at home (27-11-2). Varlamov's absence looms large down the stretch and makes it very difficult to want to back an Avalanche team that was the worst in the league just a season ago. The one-year turnaround has been pretty remarkable, but by no means "guarantees" a playoff berth. Speaking of home ice and it's importance, note that while Colorado has taken both previous meetings this season, those were at the Pepsi Center. But they have lost 15 of their last 16 visits to the Shark Tank, scoring one goal or fewer in 10 of those games. This current four-game slide by the Sharks matches a season-worst (set back in late January), but home ice is the difference maker in this late-night affair. 8* San Jose |
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04-04-18 | Wild v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Under Wild/Ducks (10:05 ET): The oddsmakers really aren't "cooperating" here, making the Ducks an overwhelming favorite on the ML in what is a "must-win" spot for them. But the total, Under specifically, seems to have some value as these teams have a history of playing low-scoring games against one another. Anaheim is 4th in the league in goals allowed per game (2.6) while Minnesota isn't too far behind (2.8). Six of the last seven meetings have stayed Under, including two this season, both of which were 3-2 finals (each winning as the road team). In what should be a "playoff-like atmosphere" another low-scoring game should be forthcoming. Take the Under. As alluded to earlier, the Ducks badly need the two points here. Right now, they are holding down one of the two Wild Card spots in the Western Conference w/ 95 points. That's two more than Colorado (who would be the 2nd WC the way things stand today) and three more than St. Louis (who plays tonight at home vs. Chicago and is also a big favorite). There is room for upward mobility for the Ducks as well. They are just one point behind the third place Kings and three behind San Jose (who lost last night). So, really, no team is more in flux than Anaheim when it comes to possible playoff position as they could conceivably have home ice advantage for a 1st round series or miss the playoffs altogether (or finish somewhere in between). Minnesota, meanwhile, has safely clinched a playoff spot and will likely have itself a tough 1st round draw vs. Winnipeg, who will have home ice advantage. The Wild won via shutout their last time on the ice, 3-0 over Edmonton. It was also their fifth Under in the last six games overall. Three times during that stretch, they've scored only one goal. They really did dominate the Oilers on Monday (outshot them 40-22), but that was also at home where their record is 27-6-8 SU. On the road, the Wild are only 17-19-2. They are also 4-1 Under this season following a shutout win. Anaheim, who as I mentioned earlier is 4th in the league in goals allowed, has seen the Under go 16-9 this year when they scored 4+ goals the previous game. They came through for me big time on Sunday by rallying to defeat Colorado in overtime, 4-3. They aren't likely to have John Gibson between the pipes here as he left the Colorado game after being run into during the 1st period. But I feel they'll shut down the Wild nevertheless. Minnesota probably turns to Devan Dubnyk in goal and he's second in the league w/ five shutouts (including the one two nights ago). He also has a .949 save percentage his L4 starts. 10* Under Wild/Ducks |
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04-03-18 | Stars v. Sharks -172 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -172 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
8* San Jose (10:35 ET): Down the stretch we come in this NHL regular season as virtually every team has three or fewer games remaining on its schedule. Over half the playoff spots may be clinched, but there's still plenty to be decided. Take, for instance, the Western Conference where we basically know the two division winners, but little else. In the Pacific, Vegas has clinched the division crown (in an expansion year!). San Jose has been right behind the Knights most of the way though and would also like home ice advantage for a first round playoff series. To do so though, they'll need a strong finish. They lead the Kings and Ducks, their two prospective 1st round opponents, by two and three points respectively. The Sharks know they are in the playoffs, but make no mistake about it, they want the two points tonight. Fortunately for the Sharks, they are at home tonight (where they are 24-11-3 - see the importance of home ice advantage in the first round?) and facing a Dallas team that was just mathematically eliminated from the playoffs after Sunday's results. Thus, motivation is likely to be at a season nadir for the Stars here and it's not as if they've been playing well of late. In fact, they've been quite awful, winning just two of their previous 11 games. One of those wins came Sunday, 4-1 at home over Minnesota, but it was "too little, too late" as later that night Anaheim rallied to beat Colorado, officially eliminating the Stars from playoff contention. Being on the road here does them zero favors. Not only is the team 14-19-5 SU away from home this season, but starting goaltender Kari Lehtonen is 0-6-1 his L7 road starts w/ a 3.84 GAA. (He's been asked to start more of late w/ Ben Bishop injured). San Jose is looking to avoid a fourth straight loss here, so they're not exactly streaking (in a positive fashion) into the postseason. But prior to this three-game slide, they'd won eight in a row. The entirety of this current losing skid has taken place on the road against fellow playoff contenders. A return home should do wonders. They are outscoring visitors by nearly a full goal per game this year while doing an excellent job at controlling the puck. Following three or more consecutive losses this season, the Sharks are 4-1 SU. They are also 10-2-1 SU their L13 home games vs. Dallas. 8* San Jose |
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04-02-18 | Jets -173 v. Senators | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
8* Winnipeg (7:35 ET): The Jets are one of only three Western Conference teams to have clinched a playoff spot. While the President's Trophy is basically out of reach at this point (trail Nashville by seven points w/ four games to go), this is probably Canada's best hope of ending the nation's embarrassing Stanley Cup drought, which is set to hit a quarter century this Spring. The Jets are pretty clearly a top five team in the league heading into the playoffs and only them and the Bruins can claim to be top five in both goals scored and goals allowed. Tonight, they continue a tour through the Eastern provinces w/ a stop in Ottawa to face the lowly Senators. Given both season-long as well as recent form, this should be a "layup" for the superior club. While Winnipeg is roaring towards the postseason, Ottawa is simply playing out the string. While the Jets are a top five team, the Senators are pretty clearly a bottom five team. Only the division rival Sabres have fewer points and a worse goal differential and by season's end, it's possible that the Sens end up at the very bottom of both categories. They are playing like a team that just wants the season to end as they ended March by dropping seven of the last eight games (only win coming in overtime). You'd have to go back to March 13th, almost three weeks ago, to find the last time the Senators won a game in regulation. They were shutout Saturday in Detroit (lost 2-0) and are also next to last in the league in goals allowed. Really, I have nothing positive to say about this team. This is the final home game of the season in Ottawa, but I'm not sure that matters given the team has won just 16 times in 40 tries here at the Continental Tire Center. They did win their last time here, 3-2 over Florida (in OT), but incredibly have never won more than two in a row at home all season! Goaltending has not been kind all season and tonight's likely starter Craig Anderson has been horrible of late w/ an .864 save percentage his L4 starts. Meanwhile, Winnipeg will again turn to Connor Hellebuyck, who is turning in a Vezina-worthy campaign w/ 41 wins. The Jets have won seven of eight, the lone loss coming at the start of this road trip (in Chicago). While the Jets haven't been nearly as good on the road as they've been at home this season, on Saturday they beat a good Toronto team, 3-1. They are 20-9 SU against teams w/ losing records and Ottawa is an awful 5-20 SU when off a loss by two or more goals. 8* Winnipeg |
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04-01-18 | Avalanche v. Ducks -150 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
8* Anaheim (9:05 ET): This is a HUGE game in the Western Conference playoff picture. The way things stand now is that both Anaheim and Colorado would be Wild Card teams were the regular season to end today. It doesn't though and both teams desperately could use the two points here. The Ducks just won another huge home game on Friday, beating the Kings 2-1 in overtime. That gives them 93 points, keeping them one back of LA and one ahead of Colorado. Both teams got a major break last night when St. Louis (who also has 92 pts) was blown out (6-0!) in Arizona. But even off a win themselves (5-0 over Chicago) their last time out, the Avs are in no position to be rejoicing. That's because top goaltender Semyon Varlamov (lower-body injury) has been lost for the remainder of the regular season, which could end up costing them a playoff berth. Varlamov was in the midst of turning in a stellar effort vs. Chicago, stopping all 30 shots he'd faced, when he was skated into late in the game. Let's also point out that was a home game for the Avs. A big reason they have improved so much after last season's 48-point disaster has been their strong play at the Pepsi Center where they've gone 27-12-1 SU this year. On the road, they're only 15-17-6 SU. Three of their final four games are away from home as tonight marks the beginning of the dreaded three-game California trip (will play at LA and San Jose next). They then close things out w/ what sets up as a possible "play-in" game vs. St. Louis, which is at home. Anaheim is also a strong home team as their record here at the Honda Center is 23-10-5 SU. They were 7-1 at home in March. There's a lot to like about this Ducks' team, namely that they are 4th in goals allowed. Goalie John Gibson has been the driving force behind that. Since the All-Star Break, he's gone 14-4-2 and leads the league in goals against average (1.93) w/ a top three save percentage as well (.938). Three of Colorado's five goals Friday came via the power play, but I would expect no such thing to take place here as Anaheim is 4th in penalty killing. With Varlamov out, Colorado's goaltending situation is a lot less fluid as backup Jonathan Bernier has been battling his own injury issues, which include a concussion and an infected cut that landed him in the hospital. There's a chance the Avs may have to turn to Andrew Hammond, who has started all of one game this season. That's unfortunate given the stakes and regardless of who is between the pipes for them tonight, I see Colorado coming out on the losing end. 8* Anaheim |
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03-31-18 | Blues v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Blues/Coyotes (9:05 ET): With six straight wins, the Blues had fought their way right back onto the cusp of playoff contention. But they suffered a crushing loss last night, 4-3 in Vegas (OT, no less), and now find themselves tied w/ Colorado (92 pts each) for what would be the final Wild Card entry. The Blues have played one fewer game than the Avs, so that's an edge. Of course, both teams could also make it in as Wild Cards were they to finish ahead of whomever finishes fourth in the Pacific (currently Anaheim, who has 93 pts). So, if you're St. Louis, there's no time to lick your wounds over what happened last night in Sin City. There's another game tonight and it's against a far lesser opponent, that being Arizona. I like the Under in this game. Under seems like a logical way to go w/ this Blues team, which ranks only 24th in the league in goals per game, but 5th in goals allowed. They'd in fact gone Under in four straight before last night's loss, allowing just five goals total during that time. But last night's tilt got off to a much different start w/ the game tied 2-2 after just one period of play. That level of scoring came as a bit of a shock to me considering there weren't a ton of shots recorded in the game. Blues' goalie Jake Allen is usually a lot sharper as he's 8-1-1 his L10 starts. It will be interesting to see if it's Allen or Carter Hutton starting tonight. The Under is 9-5 this season when the Blues are in the second game of a back to back. One area we don't have to worry about w/ St. Louis is their power play. It ranks third worst in the league at 15.6 percent. Arizona has actually proven to be a "tough out" of late. They are 15-8-2 the L25 games, a far cry from when they won only nine of their first 42 games and were the consensus worst team in the league. The good thing for us though is they still rank second from the bottom in goals per game. That's even after a recent "offensive explosion" that's seen them score 4+ goals in four of the last seven games. St. Louis prides itself on not giving up many shots (just 25.2 the L5 games) nor many goals (just 1.8 per game L5). So I don't see the Coyotes scoring much here. So the burden largely falls on goaltender Antii Raanta, who should be up to the challenge. In his last four starts, Raanta has a save percentage of .951. He has faced the Blues twice this year and stopped 61 of 65 shots. 10* Under Blues/Coyotes |
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03-30-18 | Maple Leafs v. Islanders +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
6* Puck Line NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Islanders +1.5. The Isles may be eliminated from playoff contention, but they still have some pride on the line as they look to avoid finishing last in the Metropolitan. They enter today one point behind the Rangers. Also, a win here would allow them to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the Maple Leafs. While I can't guarantee the Brooklyn contingent gets the two points here, I do feel that they'll do no worse than a one-goal loss. Four of the Maple Leafs' last five games have been decided by one goal, including a 4-3 win over Florida Wednesday night that I was on. The Isles are also off a 4-3 win here as they beat Ottawa on the road Tuesday night.  The Leafs are going to finish third in the Atlantic. For most of the season, it appeared as if they were on a first round collision course w/ Boston. But the Bruins have just passed the Lightning for the division lead. Regardless, it is going to be a very tough 1st round draw as Toronto must face one of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference w/o the benefit of home ice advantage. I consider the Leafs the third best team in the entire East, but the big difference between them and Tampa Bay/Boston has been road play. The Leafs have a losing record away from home (19-15-5), another reason to fade here. Also, they've only had to play four "true" road games so far in March (had a neutral site game vs. Washington as well) and two of those came against league-worst Buffalo. Furthemore, 13 of their last 22 games overall have been decided by exactly one goal. On paper, a matchup w/ the league's second highest scoring team does not sound promising for the Islanders as they give up the most goals per game in the entire league. But they are a top 10 scoring offense as well and I believe are capable of keeping up in a "shootout" style of game. Tuesday's 4-3 win in Ottawa was probably "well deserved" when you consider the Isles were 0-5 SU in one goal games in March previous to that result. Three of those losses came in extra time, all in a row. As rough as things have been this season, I do believe they can win this game or at least do no worse than a one-goal loss. Remember, all we need is this game to be tied at the end of regulation. 6* Puck Line NY Islanders (+1.5) |
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03-29-18 | Jets -165 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Winnipeg (8:35 ET): My, how times have changed. Can you imagine seeing Chicago at this price, at home, and not only not jumping on them, but instead taking the other side. That's the reality of 2018 though as for the first time in a decade the Blackhawks aren't going to be in the playoffs. They've been in the basement of the Central Division for some time now and that's where they'll finish as they're the only team currently eliminated from playoff contention. And it's not like the ML isn't justified here. The 'Hawks have a losing record at the "Madhouse on Madison" and are facing one of the top teams in the league tonight. The hosts have been in poor form as well, dropping six of the last seven games. This is a complete mismatch in favor of the other side. Winnipeg, meanwhile, is rolling. They have won six in a row, albeit all of them coming at home where they are now a fantastic 30-7-2 SU for the season. The Jets can still track down Nashville for the top spot in the Western Conference as they trail by five points w/ six games to go. Finishing in the top spot is less likely than not, but this team will still be a force to reckon with in the postseason. They, along w/ Boston, are the only two teams in the league to be both top five in both goals scored and fewest allowed. Now this six-game win streak hasn't exactly been dominant as the last four wins have all come in extra time and took place on home ice. But compred to the other side of this matchup, I see a vastly superior club. Now it does look like the Jets will be giving the unproven Eric Comrie the start in goal. Obviously, you'd rather see Connor Hellebuyck (40-11-9 this year), but Comrie will be facing a Blackhawks team that is a pedestrian 19th in goals per game and has a bottom five power play to boot. Chicago's own goaltending situation has been poor for almost the entire second half of the season, due to the Corey Crawford injury. In the 50 games Crawford has NOT started in, the team's record is an ugly 15-35 SU! Winnipeg is challenging for the top goal differential in the sport while Chicago is legitimately bad at this point of the season, well behind the rest of a strong Central Division field. 8* Winnipeg |
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03-29-18 | Penguins -120 v. Devils | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Florida lost last night, so New Jersey still has a three-point lead for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. But the Devils better not get too comfortable, even though their remaining schedule is no more challenging than that of the Panthers. (Florida also has a game in hand). Tonight, NJ hosts Pittsburgh, a team we pretty much know WILL be in the playoffs. The Pens are not likely to catch Washington for the top spot in the Metro, so they're left to fend for second place, which would guarantee them home ice advantage in a first round playoff series. They enter the day tied w/ Philadelphia for second and are only one point up on Columbus (Devils are 4 pts back). Strangely, the Pens have been unable to beat the Devils this year (0-3 against them) w/ every game taking place over the last two months. That changes after tonight. In fact, these teams just played last week. The game went to overtime w/ the Devils winning 4-3 at the Igloo. All three Devils' regulation goals came in the second period and they blew a 3-1 lead in the final 20 minutes. Pittsburgh outshot them for the game as well, 43-34. Though the game was at home, consider the Pens closed at -200 on the money line. Compare that to tonight's money line and it sure looks like there's some value on the favorite, no? The Pens are also looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss at Detroit Tuesday night. They fell 5-2 as goaltender Matt Murray had a bit of a rough night. That loss also continued a pattern for the Pens that has seen them alternate wins and losses over the L10 games. You know what that means for tonight. Now New Jersey has won its last three games, the last two here at home. But I just can't see them beating Pittsburgh for a fourth time in the same season. There's no denying as to which team is more prolific offensively here as the Penguins are 6th in goals per game, thanks in large part to owning the top power play. Shockingly, they've scored only six times in three games vs. the Devils this year, but I look for that number to "jump up" after tonight. After allowing 4+ goals the previous games, the Pens are 23-9 SU this season. They are also 13-2 SU after a loss by 2+ goals. New Jersey will go w/ either Keith Kinkaid or Corey Schneider between the pipes. Kinkaid's save percentage is only .908 at home this season while Schneider has struggled the last few times he's been called upon. Note the Devils have allowed three or more goals in four of their last five games. They are also just 3-7 SU this year when coming in off a win streak of three or more games. 10* Pittsburgh |
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03-28-18 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs -150 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Devils won last night, meaning Florida now trails them by three points for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. With only eight games left on their schedule and facing that kind of deficit, that pretty much makes this a "must-win" for the Panthers. Problem is, they're playing in Toronto against a very good Maple Leafs club. Toronto may only be third in the Atlantic Division, one spot ahead of Florida, but the gap between the two teams is rather sizable (12 pts) and has been basically all season. The Leafs are probably the third best team in the Eastern Conference as well. Only five teams in the league have a better goal differential. They're also 26-9-2 SU at the Air Canada Centre and have won 13 of the last 14 games here. Toronto may be an 'Original Six' team, but never have they won 46 games in a season. They come into this game at 45-24-7 SU overall. They blew an opportunity at achieving a franchise-record in wins when they lost 3-2 to Buffalo, here at home, Saturday. That snapped a 13-game home win streak as well (and also a chance at setting a new record for most home victories in a season as well w/ 27). Losing to Buffalo has to be considered extremely disappointing, not only because the Sabres are the worst team in the legaue, but also because the Leafs has a 41-27 edge in shots. Despite getting that many shot off, Toronto turned in its lowest scoring effort since their first game of March. This is a team that ranks 4th in league in goals per game and had scored at least four in six of seven games previous to the Buffalo loss. I expect a high-scoring effort from the Leafs tonight. Florida helped itself w/ a 3-0 shutout of the Islanders on Monday. It was their fourth win in the last five games and they are 20-6-1 their last 27! But could it be "too little, too late." The Panthers were simply average for the first four months of the season and have never been in the top eight in the Eastern Conference. Their last four wins have all come against "bad teams" that are nowhere near playoff contention (Montreal, Ottawa, Arizona and the Islanders). They did beat Toronto back on Feb 27th, but that was at home and in OT. Plus, the Leafs had a 39-31 edge in shots. As hot as Florida has been over the last two months, Toronto has virtually the exact same record during that time. Add in their much better start to the season and it's pretty clear that the Leafs are the better team. Playing at home, they should win here and they look to be undervalued as well. 8* Toronto |
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03-27-18 | Blue Jackets -138 v. Oilers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
8* Columbus (9:05 ET): The Blue Jackets have arguably been the hottest team in the league of late, at one point amassing 10 consecutive victories. That streak was broken Saturday night by another hot team, St. Louis, but the one loss shouldn't really affect our view of this club going into the playoffs. While they haven't clinched yet, the playoffs are where the Blue Jackets are headed, it's now only a question of where they'll finish and who they'll play. A third or fourth place finish in the Metro seems the most likely scenario, which would match them up w/ either the Capitals or Penguins in the first round. That will be a tough battle (especially w/o home ice advantage), but for now all we need to worry about is them beating a non-playoff team. I think they will tonight. Though they've been a "tougher out" of late, Edmonton has arguably been this season's biggest disappointment. Fans had visions of a Stanley Cup run this year, but that never materialized as the team started slow and never really recovered. Officially eliminated from playoff contention, the Oilers are simply playing out the string at this juncture. After winning three in a row and seven out of ten, they did lose here at home to Anaheim on Sunday, 5-4. The game did go into overtime, but it was a terribly disappointing loss for the Oilers considering they led 3-1 going into the third period. Though it wasn't the culprit vs. the Ducks, special teams have been just abysmal for the Oilers this season. They rank dead last in the league on the power play (14.5%) and are 29th in penalty killing. The fact they are 27th in goals allowed can be directly attributed to the number of shots allowed per game, which are also among the highest numbers in the league. They allowed 38 vs. Anaheim. Columbus happens to have the second worst power play in the league (15.3%), but for reasons alluded to above, that won't cost them here. They are also 9th in the league in goals allowed, giving them a huge "leg up" on Edmonton. Sergei Bobrovsky has been in top form of late (.949 save percentage L4 starts) and is expected to be in goal tonight. Over the last two months, he has gone 12-4-1 w/ a 2.01 GAA. Note Edmonton is just 8-17 SU this year after scoring 4+ goals the previous game. They are also 10-20 SU after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. I know losing Nick Foligno is tough for C-bus, but they'll be able to overcome that loss here. 8* Columbus |
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03-26-18 | Flames v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Flames/Kings (10:35 ET): Huge game here for both teams. Admittedly, Calgary is all but dead in its hopes of making the playoffs. They are nine points back of Los Angeles and St. Louis (who are tied for the final spot) and would also have to jump Dallas. That's with just six games left. The Kings are looking at either a third or fourth place finish in the Pacific most likely, the latter not guaranteeing them a playoff spot. Depending on the result of this game, their playoff position will be a lot more or less secure. I'm not playing the side though as instead I really like the total and am going Under. Coming into March, Calgary was right there fighting for one of the last playoff spots. But a dreadful month, particularly of late, has virtually taken them right out of contention. They come into tonigh as losers of five in a row. They've given up a total of 25 goals during that span, a frightening number to be sure, but have also been shutout twice themselves. Overall, they've scored just three goals in the last four games. All five losses during the current streak have been by at least three goals. I don't like their chances of scoring much here against the league's #2 team in goals allowed. The Kings also have the league's top penalty killing unit. That's a bad matchup for Calgary, who is only 26th in the league in goals scored and 27th on the power play. Incredibly, despite what's taken place on the scoreboard, the Flames have outshot 11 consecutive opponents. But the Kings typically do a great job at controlling the puck, thus outshooting them may not be a likely scenario. It's a virtual lock that we'll see Jonathan Quick between the pipes for the Kings. After earning at least a point in the first three games of a four-game trip (went 2-0-1), the Kings lost by one goal at Edmonton Saturday night. I see this being a low-scoring game. 10* Under Flames/Kings |
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03-26-18 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights -170 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
8* Vegas (10:05 ET): Here, we have two teams whose respective home ice advantages rate among the very strongest in the entire league. Unfortunately for Colorado though, this game will take place in Sin City where the Golden Knights have set a new standard for all future expansion teams (in any sport) to live up to. That includes a 26-9-2 SU record at home. A somewhat pedestrian March (6-4-2 record) should not tarnish what has been an unbelievable first season of pro hockey in Las Vegas. This team is on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth and should win the Pacific Division. What Vegas has been able to do in its first year of existence has largely overshadowed what has taken place this season in Colorado, a radical improvement that is among the best I've ever seen year-to-year in any sport. The Avs have nearly doubled LY's point total when they were - without question - the worst team in the entire league. The way things stand right now, they would be a Wild Card team and matchup w/ Vegas in the 1st round of the playoffs (#2 vs. #7 seed). But two teams - Los Angeles and St. Louis - are just one point behind. True to form, the home team has won both previous head to head matchups between these two this season. Colorado just beat Vegas on Saturday, 2-1 in a shootout, making this a legit revenge game for the Golden Knights. That was the second straight loss in extra time for the Knights (both on the road), who should now be happy to be back home. Their one time hosting Colorado this season came very eary on and resulted in a 7-0 win. The Avs are only 15-16-6 on the road this year. Good news for Vegas is that they are 7-3 SU this season after scoring one goal or less in the previous game. They've allowed only three goals in regulation the last four games. They rank 8th in the league in goals allowed and third in goals scored. At home, their YTD goal differential predictably widens and is the second largest in the league behind Winnipeg. Off B2B closes losses and back home, there's a lot to like about the Pacific Division leaders in this spot. 8* Vegas |
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03-25-18 | Canucks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Canucks/Stars (7:05 ET): Dallas has picked the absolute worst time to play its worst stretch of hockey this season. A seven-game losing skid, four of those coming by one goal, has all but sunk their playoff hopes. With St. Louis now having won five straight, the Stars are now looking at a five-point deficit to make it as a Wild Card. That's not insurmountable, but they'd have to not only jump the Blues, but whomever finishes fourth in the Pacific as well. As for tonight's opponent, well, at no point this season have they been thinking playoffs. Vancouver currently sits tied w/ Arizona for the fewest points in the Western Conference (61) and has been every bit as bad as was projected at the start of the season. I've written previously about the "transformation" of the Stars this season into a team that no longer relies on having to "outscore" its opponents. Two years ago, they won the Central Division despite being below average in the goals allowed side of the ledger. Last season saw them tumble down the standings as they ranked near the very bottom in the league in goals allowed (plus they were just 16th in goals scored). During that division winning campaign, they were - by far and away - #1 in the league in scoring. Fast forward to the present and they're just 20th. But they've remained in contention thanks to being a top 10 team in goals allowed, a huge improvement from last season. However, this losing streak has brought back the "Stars of old." They've given up at least three goals in all seven losses and 27 total. They did get off 42 shots vs. Boston Friday night, but failed to take advantage of four power play opportunities. It's been a pretty brutal schedule that has had Dallas facing some of the league's best teams, but still, you would have expected them to win one or two of these games. Tonight likely gets them back into the win column, but expect the game to be high-scoring. The winner of Vancouver's last four games has scored at least four goals every time. The Canucks are also mired in an awful stretch presently as they've dropped seven of eight. Expect both teams' struggles to keep the opponent from finding the back of the net to be the prevailing theme here. 10* Over Canucks/Stars |
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03-25-18 | Flyers v. Penguins -157 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): Obviously, there's a lot that still has to "shake out," but we could be looking at a potential first round playoff series here w/ the Penguins and the Flyers. Both have spent the majority of their respective seasons in the top four in the Metro. Pittsburgh currently has a "leg up" for home ice advantage in the first round as their 90 points have them in second place (five back of division leading Washington). But hot on their heels are both Columbus (89 pts) and Philly (88 pts). I believe the Pens to be the better team here, so with them hosting here, I've got no choice but to give them the endorsement in this Sunday afternoon matchup. Now Pittsburgh is off a rare home defeat, it coming in overtime at the hands of New Jersey, 4-3, on Friday night. Since a three-game win streak earlier this month (which included a 5-2 win at Philly), the Penguins have alternated wins and losses over the last seven games. If that pattern holds, we know the result that is in store today. Note that the Pens have had little difficulty getting the puck on net recently. They outshot New Jersey, 43-34, their fifth consecutive game w/ at least 37 shots on goal and sixth time in the last seven that they've done so. In addition to the home ice (15-1-1 L17 games at PPG Paints Arena), another edge the Pens have here is their league-best power play (26.0%) going against the Flyers' 27th ranked penalty kill. In three games vs. Flyers this season (all wins), Pittsburgh has gone 4 for 11 w/ the man advantage. Philly's offense has been hot of late, scoring four or more goals in four consecutive games (18 goals total!). But this is a team that still only has four wins over its last 12 games. They did beat the Rangers, 4-3 on Thursday, but that was at home. Whereas Pittsburgh excels in scoring (6th overall), particularly on the power play, the Flyers are a decidedly average team that ranks 14th in goals scored and allowed. They have allowed five goals in each of the three losses to Pittsburgh this season. Some teams just have another's number and that is the case here in this division rivalry. 8* Pittsburgh |
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03-24-18 | Kings -119 v. Oilers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
10* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): As teams continue to jockey for playoff position in the Western Conference, there's a lot to like about these Kings, nevermind the fact they just walloped Colorado 7-1 on Thursday. Colorado has not been an easy place to win at for visiting teams (Avs are still 15-3-1 their L19 games there), yet the Kings made it look easy and are now 6-0-2 their last eight road games. The offensive explosion was certainly a welcome sight, but note this team is also #2 in the league in goals allowed and has the #1 penalty killing unit. It's a drop in class tonight (in terms of the opposition) and I see LA winning yet again. Now Edmonton is also off a big road win, theirs coming by a score of 6-2 over Ottawa. They've now scored 13 goals total the last two games and both were on the road! Impressive as that sounds, let's not forget the Oilers have arguably been this season's biggest disappointment. Coming into the year, their starved fanbase was thinking about a potential Stanley Cup run. The reality of the matter is that they are already eliminated from playoff contention. While they've been playing better recently, they've won three or more straight games only four times all season. Unlike the Kings, the Oilers have lousy special teams as they are 30th on the power play and 31st in penalty killing. So that's at least one massive edge going to the road team here. While the Oilers are simply playing out the string, the Kings are trying to lock down a playoff spot. They enter tonight in third place in the Pacific, tied w/ Anaheim. Two other teams (from the Central Division) - Colorado and St. Louis - are each within two points of them, so not even the Wild Card is a sure thing at this point. Thus, this really shapes up as a proverbial "must-win" for the Kings. They've taken two of three from Edmonton this season, scoring five times in both wins, before losing at home 4-3 in January. Note the Oilers are just 7-17 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals their previous game. Meanwhile, LA is 23-12 when facing an opponent that has a losing record. 10* Los Angeles |
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03-23-18 | Devils v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Devils/Penguins (7:05 ET): So, it appears as if the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference is beginning to take shape. We know Tampa Bay and Boston are in (both clinched) and Toronto, Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly have all been in position most of the year. Columbus is the hottest team in the league right now (won 10 straight!), so it looks like they'll do no worse than a Wild Card. The leaves one more spot and it will go to either New Jersey or Florida. The Devils come into Friday w/ a one-point advantage, something that was maintained w/ the Panthers losing yday (shutout 4-0 by C-bus). Needless to say, tonight's game is huge for New Jersey. But I like the total more than either side in this one. I'm still not used to seeing a "6" attached to a Devils' game for a total. For years, this was among the lowest-scoring teams in the league. But a plodding style of play has given way to a more wide-open approach this season and the results speak for themselves. Like Colorado in the Western Conference, the Devils are hoping to make the playoffs just one season removed from a last place finish. Really, both teams' renaissance has been overshadowed due to the unprecedented success of the expansion team in Vegas. For the record, New Jersey is 15th in goals per game. That may not sound great, but they were 28th a season ago. They also gave up six goals in their last game (loss to San Jose). However, I'm expecting a much different style of game in what is the finale of a brutal six-game road trip for the Devils, a score akin to teams of years' past. We know Pittsburgh can score too; they are 6th in the league in goals per game and have the top power play (26.2%). But sometimes that offense is too dependent on them having the man advantage. New Jersey has a good enough penalty killing unit (10th) to stymie the Pens on the PP. Note the Devils are 2-0 vs. the Pens this season, both wins coming in February. They've held them to just three goals total, none coming from the power play (0 for 3). In one of the games, Pittsburgh managed only 16 shots on goal. But it has been the Penguins that have done a good job at limiting the # of opponents' shot attempts lately and the Devils come in averaging just 25.6 per over the L5 games. 10* Under Devils/Penguins |
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03-22-18 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Avalanche (9:05 ET): Stop me when you've heard me say this before - "this is a big game in the Western Conference playoff race." I think it's fair to say that it's now down to 10 teams competing for the eight spots (Calgary is waning and I no longer consider them as having any realistic shot). We know Nashville is in and while neither have officially "clinched," I consider Winnipeg and Vegas as locks too. That leaves seven teams and five spots. As things stand right now, both the Kings and Avalanche would be Wild Cards in the playoffs (both in fourth place in their respective divisions). But with those seven teams only separated by seven points, a lot can change between now and the end of the regular season. I expect the proverbial "playoff-like mentality" for this one. The Kings are second in the league in fewest goals allowed, but Denver is a hard place to win. Thus, I'm calling for an Under tonight. Similar deal to last night's 10* on the Under in Anaheim-Calgary. With so much on the line, I do not expect any kind of wide open game. Note that we have two of the top three penalty killing units in the league here (Kings #1), so the power play should be a non-factor tonight. Neither team is by any means dominant w/ the man advantage anyways. The Avs do have three PP goals in their last two games, but I would expect nothing of the sort here. The Avs are coming off B2B wins where they scored five goals in each game. Keeping that scoring streak going against a team like the Kings isn't easy to do. Also, I like how the Avs have allowed just one goal in each of their last three victories. The Kings got off only 17 shots on goal in an OVERTIME loss to Winnipeg on Tuesday, so we shouldn't expect much out of their offense here either. We should also have two strong netminders between the pipes tonight. For the Kings, Jonathan Quick needs no introduction and has a .937 save percentage his L4 starts. For the Avs, Semyon Varlamov has been a revelation, playing in 18 straight games (16 starts). He has a ridiculous .961 save percentage his L4 starts and a .935 save percentage for the year at home. 10* Under Kings/Avalanche |
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03-22-18 | Lightning -180 v. Islanders | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): For most of this season, the Lightning have been considered the best team in the league. That line of thinking is certainly justified by the fact they have the second most points (104) and best goal differential (+59). But Boston, who recently beat them, is now hot on Tampa Bay's heels and even an Atlantic Division title is not guaranteed right now. Tonight, the Lightning have a chance to increase their division lead to six points and possibly tie Nashville (top team in the Western Conference) for most points in the league. Even on the road, it looks to be a very favorable matchup on paper w/ an Islanders team that ultimately won't make the playoffs because they are dead last in the league in goals allowed. Since being shutout by Boston on St. Patrick's Day, the Lightning have bounced back w/ a pair of wins over Edmonton and Toronto. Both were at home and they resumed their typical level of scoring w/ a combined seven goals in the two wins. But road play has been a major reason why the Lightning have been "out in front of the pack" for so much of this season. They are 23-11-2 away from home this year and outscoring teams by almost a full goal per game at their own rinks. That's easily the best scoring margin of any team on the road this year and really only Nashville can claim a comparable record. No team can touch the Lightning's average of 3.5 goals per game on the road. They are #1 overall in the league in goals per game and as I said earlier, the Islanders are dead last in goals allowed. In other words, I expect the visitors to score early and often tonight. While not officially eliminated from contention, the Isles have no realistic path to the playoffs at this point. They are last in the Metro, needing to jump numerous teams, and face a 10-pt deficit w/ only nine games to go. Though they did just beat the Penguins (4-1) here at home Tuesday night, the Isles have done themselves no favors w/ a 2-7-4 stretch dating back to mid-February. I simply cannot see them beating Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay consecutively. We saw what TB can do when they stormed back from a 3-1 deficit against Toronto Tuesday. The Islanders - on average - give up some of the highest shot totals in the league. This is a great matchup for TB as goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 1.73 GAA and .952 save percentage in six career regular season starts vs. NY. 8* Tampa Bay |
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03-21-18 | Ducks v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Ducks/Flames (9:35 ET): This is an incredibly important game for both sides as they try and work their way into the top eight in the Western Conference. Anaheim currently occupies that eighth and final playoff spot, but it's a precarious hold as Dallas and St. Louis are each within three points of them. A win here though and the Ducks would move past the Kings for third place in the Pacific Division, a spot which guarantees you a playoff berth. Meanwhile, Calgary's playoff hopes are looking to be on "life support." They've fallen a bit behind the pack (trail Anaheim by six points) and are 11th in the Western Conference standings, meaning they need to jump at least three teams. Their -18 YTD goal differential does not exactly bode well for their future either.  But I'm not making a play on the side for this one. They've lost eight of 11, including three straight, but you have to think the Flames are going to come in highly motivated tonight. After all, they were just beaten by lowly Arizona (5-2, on the road) Monday night. It was their third consecutive game allowing at least four goals and they've also allowed that many each of the last four times they have lost. A 3-14 head to head record w/ Anaheim is another reason not to like Calgary here, but you have to take into account than the Ducks are a subpar team on the road. They've won their last three games, but all three wins were at home. Over the last month, they've played only three road games and totaled just three goals in them (all losses). Despite an average of more than 40 shots per game, Calgary has averaged just 1.8 goals its last five contests. Many times, I might then forecast some sort of offensive explosion is forthcoming. But not here. The Flames only rank 25th in the league in goals per game to begin with and Anaheim ranks 5th in goals allowed. All three head to head meetings this season between these two have stayed Under the total. I see this one following suit as the Ducks are off B2B four-goal games, meaning they're more likely to regress than Calgary is to improve on the offensive end. The Ducks are also 23-12 Under this season, in road games, when the total is 5.5. The Under is also 14-7 in goaltender John Gibson's 21 road starts. I have to think Calgary G Mike Smith is set to perform better as well. 10* Under Ducks/Flames  |
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03-21-18 | Coyotes v. Sabres -120 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (7:05 ET): While roughly two-thirds of the league continues to compete either to get into or strengthen their position for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the respective fate of these two clubs has long been known and has nothing to do w/ the postseason. Buffalo and Arizona, basically all season long, have been the worst teams in their respective conferences. They both come into Wednesday night as two of the four teams in the league officially eliminated from playoff contention. Buffalo has the fewest points (58) and also the worst goal differential (-64), so you can make the case that they are the worst team in the league. But even though Arizona has played better of late (6-3-1 L10), they are only one point in front of the Sabres. The game is in Buffalo and I actually see some value here in this battle of also-rans. Tonight is the start of a six-game road trip for the Coyotes, who will travel through the Southeastern U.S. (Carolina, Florida, Tampa Bay) before ending up back West (LA, Vegas). Though they have played better of late, it's difficult for me to envision this trip going well. For the year, the 'Yotes are only 9-17-7 on the road and they're getting outscored by over a full goal per game. The recent stretch of games has seen them play at home quite a bit as their only three road games over the last month came at Edmonton, Vancouver and Colorado. They lost two of those, only beating the Canucks, who not coincidentally are tied w/ them for last in the Pacific Division right now. Monday's 5-2 win over Calgary (at home) looks nice on paper, but came in spite of a 44-30 deficit in shots on goal. Plus, that amt of scoring from Arizona is very atypical considering they rank 30th in the league in goals per game. They have been outshot in five of the last six games. Meanwhile, Buffalo was shutout on Monday, here at home. But that came against a great Nashville team. Tonight marks the Sabres' fifth straight game at home, so they have an edge there. (They did beat Chicago 5-3 on Saturday). Believe it or not, but Monday was only the third time since December 1st that the Sabres had been shutout. Leading scorer Jack Eichel is back, so that's a boost. My read here boils down to this is an incredibly cheap price to go against a bad Arizona team on the road. 8* Buffalo |
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03-20-18 | Oilers v. Hurricanes -148 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -148 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
8* Carolina (7:05 ET): This is a seemingly meaningless game in the grand scheme of things (neither team has much of a shot at making the playoffs), so why play? Well, I look for the home side to be motivated here as they are trying to finish the season w/ a winning record in Raleigh, plus their playoff chances are at least a little more realistic compared to tonight's visitor. Also, the situation seems to favor the Hurricanes as well w/ Edmonton having to play a third straight road game out East, in a four-day span no less. Carolina's upcoming schedule is actually somewhat favorable, so they're not necessarily dead yet. Both of these teams are pretty frustrating to handicap and should probably be better. Both should be considered among the league's biggest disappointments for 2017-18, Edmonton moreso. What's frustrating about Carolina is that they consistently outshoot their opponents, yet more often than not, still come out on the losing end. Take the last five games for example. The 'Canes have averaged 36.2 shots on goal while giving up only 27.4. Yet, they are only 2-3 SU during that stretch and allowing 4.2 goals per game. That just shouldn't be the case. They outshot the Islanders 39-29 on Sunday en route to picking up a 4-3 road win. Something that may work in Carolina's favor here is that Edmonton is only 23rd in the league in scoring and dead last on the power play. Carolina actually enjoys the largest differential in shots per game in the entire league! So it's pretty unforgiveable that they're likely not going to make the playoffs, even w/ a late-season charge. It mostly falls on their goaltending, which has posted the worst collective save percentage in the league at .892. That's very bad. But Edmonton isn't much better (.900, tied for 2nd worst), which is also the reason they haven't had the kind of success they had envisioned. That league-worst power play also betrayed them yet again in Sunday's 3-1 loss at Tampa Bay as they were 0 for 5 w/ the man advantage. They're now 0 for the last 10. Carolina won the season's first meeting in Edmonton, 5-3, ironically despite being outshot 51-21! Something I'm going to predict here is that Oilers' goalie Cam Talbot has an "off-night." Curiously, he's been a lot better of late, but I feel regression is in the cards. 8* Carolina |
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03-19-18 | Kings v. Wild -135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I talk it about every day (it seems!), but that's because every game really is important in the Western Conference. You've got 11 teams fighting for eight playoff spots and only three - Nashville, Winnipeg and Vegas - feel like "safe" bets to make it. Currently, Minnesota is third in the Central (meaning they'd be in) w/ 89 pts. Tonight, the Wild host the Kings, who are not playing well and have dropped to fourth in the Pacific. LA enters the day tied w/ Dallas for the second of two Wild Card spots w/ 84 points. So two points will go a long way here. I made the mistake of playing the Kings Saturday night as they were shut out, at home, 3-0 by New Jersey. While they've alternated wins and losses this entire month, I look for that pattern to end tonight as they are facing a team w/ a league-low six regulation losses at home this year. Minnesota is off a pair of road wins, one that was to expected and the other not so much. Beating Arizona 3-1 on Saturday night was the former while a 4-2 win in Vegas on Friday was the latter. As a result, the Wild have to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now as they return to the XL Center where they are 24-6-6 this season. One of those six regulation losses came the last time they were here, 5-1 to Colorado on March 13th. So the players should be highly motivated tonight. There is nothing phony about this team's home record either as they are outscoring visitors by over a full goal per game here. Only six teams in the entire league can claim that and the Wild have the third best home scoring differential, trailing only Winnipeg and Colorado. Minnesota has outshot its last five opponents. The Kings happened to outshoot New Jersey Saturday night, 38-28, but it was all for naught as they couldn't score a goal. Going 0 for 6 on the power play was an absolute killer. While the team still ranks highly in fewest goals allowed (2nd) and on the penalty kill (2nd), you obviously can't win if you don't score. Bad news for Kings fans is that the team is only 4-7 SU this season after being held to 1 or 0 goals in its previous game. They are also a surprisingly bad 12-22 against teams w/ winning records. They are just 1-2 after a shutout loss w/ the one win coming against Arizona. 8* Minnesota |
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03-18-18 | Red Wings v. Avalanche -175 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
8* Colorado (3:05 ET): The Western Conference playoff race just keeps getting tighter by the day as six teams battling for the final three spots are separated by just four points entering play on Sunday. Now one of those final three spots has to go to whomever finishes in the third place in the Pacific Division. So, for Colorado, the Wild Card is looking like the only real entry poing into the playoffs. The third place team in the Central, Minnesota, has five more points than the Avs, a gap which can be made up but would be difficult. Right now, Colorado is one of four teams w/ 84 points. The two Wild Cards would be decided between them, Dallas and whoever loses the third place tiebreak in the Pacific (LA or Anaheim) as those are the teams w/ 84 pts. St. Louis and Calgary lurk close behind w/ 81 and 80 pts respectively. This afternoon, the Avs draw Detroit at home. This is the definition of "must-win." The Red Wings aren't good as their 63 points are tied for the second fewest in the Eastern Conference. Coming into the season, I had very "low hopes" for this club seeing as they were off a second-to-last place finish in the Atlantic in 2016-17 that could have actually been a lot worse, if not for a fortunate 9-0 record in shootouts. They're actually 4-1 in shootouts this season, but it hasn't mattered as they find themselves in the same spot. They are bottom five in the league in scoring as well as bottom 10 in goals allowed, power play and penalty killing. Really, there's nothing to like about them and, oh by the way, did I mention they come into this game on a NINE-game losing streak? Today marks their third road game in four nights. Back in the 90's, this was actually a big rivalry game, but now the teams are in different conferences. Colorado was - by far - the worst team in the league last season, but has improved exponentially in 2017-18. Really, what has happened in Vegas has totally overshadowed this remarkable turnaround, which has been fueled by the Avs' tremendous 24-9-2 home record. While Colorado has dropped four of its last 10 games overall, three of those losses have come either in OT. The other was Friday night, here at home, vs. Nashville. Despite that loss, however, the Avs are 14-2-1 their last 17 games. 8* Colorado |
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03-17-18 | Devils v. Kings -145 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
8* Los Angeles (4:05 ET): It seems as if almost half the league is separated by 10 points right now w/ only a handful of teams out of playoff contention (with 12 or fewer games to go!) and even fewer having broken away from the pack. Count both the Devils and Kings among those fighting for their playoff lives right now. Los Angeles enters this Saturday afternoon tilt as one of four teams in the Western Conference tied w/ 84 points. The way things stand currently, there's only room for three of those teams to make the playoffs, but one HAS to come from the Pacific (top three in each division automatically make playoffs). So tied w/ Anaheim, the Kings REALLY need the two points today. Of course, the same could be said for New Jersey, whose 80 pts has them in eighth place in the Eastern Conference (would be 2nd Wild Card), but a win here could move them past Columbus and Philadelphia in their own division. The Kings have had an "up and down" March, alternating wins and losses throughout. They are off a win, 4-1 over Detroit on Thursday. To me, this is a playoff team. They have allowed the second fewest number of goals in the league and are outstanding on the penalty kill as well (3rd best). As they desperately try and find some consistency, they are fortunate in that they can lean on netminder Jonathan Quick, who comes in hot. He has a 2.14 GAA and .932 save percentage the L15 games and that's including a rare "off-night" (got pulled early) last Saturday vs. St. Louis. Quick had another off-night against these Devils back in December, allowing a season-high five goals (on just 26 shots). But the Kings are 21-9-1 SU vs. the Eastern Conference this year and I expect Quick to play much better this go around. While the Kings rank near the top of the league in fewest goals allowed, the Devils have been downright pedestrian in all areas this year. Now, no one expected them to be contending for a playoff spot, but everything about them has been decidedly mediocre. They are off arguably their most "impressive" win of the season, having won at Vegas by a score of 8-3. Trust me when I say they won't come anywhere close to matching that result here. Winning at both Nashville and Vegas the L2 games is pretty remarkable, but the Devils were outshot in both games, including 42-28 by Vegas. Off their best offensive game of the year, the Devils will regress here as they are facing one of the top defensive teams (and goaltenders) in the game. 8* Los Angeles |
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03-16-18 | Stars -138 v. Senators | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -138 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
10* Dallas (7:35 ET): Simply put, this is a must win game for the Stars. They have fallen to fifth in the absolutely loaded Central Division, making them what would be the final (2nd of 2) Wild Card teams in the Western Conference. To say the West is deep and log-jammed right now would be quite the understatement. We basically have 11 teams vying for 8 playoff spots. Three teams - Nashville, Winnipeg and Vegas - look to be "sure things" for the postseason. The other five spots will go to a group of what is now eight teams currently separated by just six points. At the end of today, Dallas could be tied for the 4th most points in the conference or outside the top eight entirely. They are facing an Ottawa team that has long been out of playoff contention over in the Eastern Conference and is rated among the league's worst. I have the two points going to the Stars. Dallas has not been helping itself at all of late as they've dropped three in a row and five of the last six. Their last four losses have all been out on the road. The current road trip won't be getting any easier w/ future dates at Winnipeg and Washington, so I really cannot stress how imperative it is to win here tonight. Ottawa is easily the weakest opponent of the six-game trip. Now the Stars did lose in Montreal earlier in the week, but that game and the subsequent 6-5 loss to Toronto (which went to a shootout) saw them finish w/ the edge in shots. Wednesday's loss in Toronto was pretty brutal as the Stars gave up three goals in the third period after rallying back from an early 2-0 hole themselves. Dallas has been a lot better this year when it comes to not giving up goals as they rank 6th in the league in that department. Certainly, the offense should feel confident going against a Senators club that is 30th in the league in goals against. Now Ottawa is off B2B wins here, having beaten Florida and Tampa Bay here at home. They scored seven times in a shocking win over the league-best Lightning on Tuesday, but the likelihood of that performance being repeated ranges between "slim" and "none." After scoring four or more goals the previous game, the Sens are 7-15 SU this season. They are also 8-21 SU after allowing four or more the previous game. A big key here is Dallas has NEVER lost four in a row at any point this season, going 3-0 when on a three-game slide. 10* Dallas |
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03-15-18 | Blue Jackets v. Flyers -120 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): This sets up as huge battle in the Metropolitan Division w/ the third and fifth place teams meeting. Only two points separate Philly and Columbus w/ New Jersey now in between. For most of this season, it has looked extremely likely that the Metro would be sending five teams to the playoffs, taking both "Wild Card" spots. But w/ Florida making a late charge over in the Atlantic, things no longer appear that certain (bottom three in the Metro have all dropped off). So tonight's game is definitely very important to both sides and I'm going w/ the Flyers even though they have a better record on the road than at home! The key is the Blue Jackets are nowhere near as strong on the road as they are at home. Now this play certainly "flies in the face" of recent form as C-bus has gotten hot, rattling off five consecutive victories while Philly is trending in the wrong direction, taking a loss in six of its last seven contests. But getting back to home vs. road splits, four of those five Blue Jackets' wins have come at home where they are now 23-11-2 for the season. On the road, their record is 14-17-3. Something else worth mentioning is how the Jackets have scored at least four goals in all five of those victories. This has been - by no means - an offensive juggernaut this season as the team ranks only 25th in goals per game. Eight of their last 16 games have come from defensemen, which seems unsustainable. I realize that Petr Mrazek hasn't necessarily been "lights out" since coming over from Detroit, but I'm calling for a strong effort in goal tonight. The Flyers were red hot at the end of February, having gone 10-1-2 for the month and additionally, they'd won 26 of their previous 37 contests. But March is not off to a good start, primarily due to a challenging schedule that has featured more road games than not. Over the L6 games, the Flyers have had to face: Tampa Bay, Florida, Pittsburgh, Boston, Winnipeg and Vegas. The L2 were at home, and while they did lose both times, Philly outshot both opponents. Each loss was by just one goal. They outshot Vegas 40-29 on Monday. Looking at the "ebbs and flows" of this season (for both times), I'd say this is a great time to buy low on the Flyers and sell high on the Blue Jackets as the money line is offering a nice value. 10* Philadelphia |
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03-14-18 | Devils v. Golden Knights -175 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -175 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
8* Vegas (10:05 ET): For most of this year, the expansion Golden Knights have been THE story in NHL as it's looking more and more likely that they'll win the Pacific Division in their first year of existence. A case can me made that the team from Vegas is the best expansion team, EVER, in any sport. A large part of their success is due to what appears to be one of the strongest home ice advantages in the league. They've gone 24-7-2 in "Sin City" and whether or not that's the alleged "Vegas flu" (visiting teams having too much "fun" when they visit), or something else, the home ice edge is very real. I expect the "Vegas flu" in to inflict yet another opponent tonight, that being fellow overachiever New Jersey. While they've been a dominant home team, let's not sell short what Vegas just did on the road. They took the final three games of a five-game trip out East (went 4-1 overall), allowing only three goals in the last three games. Now, two of the wins were against a couple of also-rans in Detrot and Buffalo. But they did just beat Philadelphia Monday night. The Flyers, like the Devils, are trying to lock down one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. The Golden Knights won despite a 40-29 deficit in shots as the power play contributed a pair of goals. Something to note is that Vegas is one of only four teams in the league right now to rank in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed (Boston, Nashville, Winnipeg). Not coincidentally, those are four of the top five teams in points. Vegas is 3rd in the league in scoring overall and averages 3.64 goals per game here at home. New Jersey has arguably been the biggest surprise out East as they've missed the playoffs each of the last five years, bottoming out w/ LY's last place finish. They come into tonight well-rested and off a win as they beat Nashville in a shootout Saturday, 3-2. That was on the road too, so perhaps the Devils can win here. But I don't think they will. The club is in the thick of a brutal stretch of games as they hosted Winnipeg (lost) before beating Nashville and now head to the West Coast where they'll next face the three California teams, followed by a trip to Pittsburgh. This stretch of games could cost them a playoff berth. 8* Vegas |
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03-14-18 | Penguins v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
8* Puck Line NY Rangers (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. Tremendous value here on the Rangers, who are at home and getting the goal and a half. Yes, it's largely been a disastrous second half of the season for the guys wearing the blue sweaters (they are just 6-12-2 L20 games), but they are off a 6-3 win here at MSG (over Carolina) the other night. It's become increasingly likely that NY will NOT be in the playoffs as they now face a nine-point deficit w/ just 12 games to play and they'd need to jump a lot of teams. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is looking to win the Metro. They enter Weds trailing rival Washington by just a single point. But they've been very inconsistent. Take for instance the last eight games, which have seen the Pens go 4-4 SU. Two of the wins were by exactly one goal. They picked up a big win the other night, 3-1 over Dallas, but that was on home ice. Out on the road, this team is just 14-18-3 this season and they are giving up 3.3 goals per game. While the Pens have had the Rangers' number of late, especially here at MSG (7-1 L8 visits), it hasn't always been easy. This is the fourth head to head matchup this season and two of the previous three were one-goal games, including the lone one in the Big Apple. Overall, 32 of the Penguins' 70 games this year (nearly half) have been one goal games. For the Rangers, that number is 30. So there's a strong likelihood this will be a one-goal game and that's a win for us remember, regardless of the actual result. Something else to note here is that when Pittsburgh's top ranked power play is struggling, the team typically suffers as a result. The Rangers are 8th in penalty killing, so that should serve them well tonight. The PK has gone 12 of 14 this month. Pittsburgh has been very inconsistent defensively as they've allowed 1 or 0 goals nine times over the last 30 games, but also allowed 4+ nine times in that same stretch. For the Rangers, Henrik Lundqvist has been better of late w/ an outstanding .933 save percentage his L4 starts. If he doesn't go, the emerging Alexandar Georgiev has been solid as well (.930 save percentage). Goaltending is a question mark for the Pens as Matt Murray has an .898 save percentage in road games while Tristan Jarry has been quite "leaky" of late (.899 save percentage L4 starts). 8* Puck Line NY Rangers (+1.5) |
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03-13-18 | Oilers v. Flames -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10* Calgary (9:05 ET): This edition of the "Battle of Alberta" carries added importance for the Flames, who are only two points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference, but in 11th place as well. That means they need to jump at least three teams to make the playoffs. Two points here would potentially tie them w/ Colorado (who is at Minnesota tonight) and Anaheim (idle) for the final WC spot. Sunday's 5-2 home loss to the Islanders certainly didn't help matters and thus the Flames can ill-afford another home defeat at the hands of a non-contender. Their sub-par home record (14-16-4) is cause for some concern here, but Edmonton is a team whose struggles run far deeper. Go with the favorite here. The Oilers are easily on the short-list for biggest disappointment in the league this season. Their fans were thinking Stanley Cup and a return to the glory days after last season's breakthrough campaign. However, the team won't even be competing for the Cup this year as their fate has long ago been decided. Special teams have been horrible all year as they rank dead last in penalty killing and second to last on the power play. They are also 29th in goals allowed. Now, they have played better recently, winning their last three games. But it's "too little, too late" and there's been only one winning streak longer all season (right before X-Mas). It also should be pointed out that two of those three wins came in OT or a shootout, against two of the league's worst - the Islanders and Coyotes. The last two times the Oilers found themselves on a win streak of three games, they were outscored by a combined 10-2. As disappointing as the Oilers have been, they have had the Flames' number. They're 3-0 SU head to head this season, although two of the wins were at home. Over the last two seasons, the Oilers have now taken all seven head to head meetings. Think Calgary might be "slightly" motivated here tonight? Then, you throw in the fact that the team has only TWO home victories since the All-Star Break. I don't believe in the term "must win," because any team can lose at any time, but the Flames HAVE to have this one. I see them taking advantage of the Oilers' 30th ranked .898 save percentage. 10* Calgary |
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03-13-18 | Stars -155 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:35 ET): There's 11 teams currently competing for the eight playoff spots in the Western Conference and of those 11, only three (Nashville, Winnipeg, Vegas) seem like sure bets to get to the postseason. The other eight are left to fend for the final five spots, including two Wild Cards, and are separated by all of seven points entering play on Tuesday. Dallas is 4th in the Central right now and would be a Wild Card the way things stand. However, that status can change in an instant, which is why picking up two points tonight in Montreal is so crucial. The Habs should be all too willing to lay down as they're a bad team returning home after five straight defeats on the road. At this point, it's "wait until next year" for them as the playoffs are not a realistic possibility. It's been a series of low-scoring affairs for Dallas recently as the last five games, two wins and three losses, have all seen five or fewer total goals scored. This is much different than Stars' teams of the past, which were near the top of the league in scoring, but near the bottom in goals allowed. This edition happens to rank 4th in goals allowed even after a 3-1 loss at Pittsburgh Sunday night (where I was on the Penguins!). They managed only 18 shots in goal in that one and have scored two goals or fewer in regulation in five straight games. Fortunately for the Stars, the offense should turn around tonight against a Canadiens' club that has allowed 19 goals in just the L4 games. Montreal is simply playing out the string right now in what has been a very disappointing year for them. They won the Atlantic Division LY on the back of goalie Carey Price, but both Price and the team have regressed severely in 2017-18. Price is injured now and joining him on the bench tonight will be top defenseman Shea Weber (out for year) and captain Max Pacioretty (knee). The Montreal offense ranks 29th (third worst) in goals per game and while Price wasn't exactly playing well prior to getting hurt, the team's other goaltending options aren't exactly inspiring. The fact that the Habs played last night in Columbus (lost 5-2) does them no favors here. Charlie Lindgren started last night and has been terrible, so it's likely Antti Niemi. The Habs, who have just three wins in their L15 games overall, are only 3-8 SU when playing w/o rest. 8* Dallas |
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03-12-18 | Blues v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
10* Over Blues/Ducks (10:05 ET): These days, it seems as if every Western Conference matchup is vital to to the playoff race, and this one is no exception. Anaheim currently sits third in the Pacific, which would mean a guaranteed playoff spot, but they're anything but secure w/ only a one-point edge over the fourth place Kings and a two-point edge over the fifth place Flames. At the same time, the Ducks are only one win away from taking over second place from San Jose. So tonight's result is going to have huge reprucussions for them. So too will it for St. Louis, who of the 11 teams currently in the playoff hunt, is in 11th position. The Blues are three points back of the Wild Card and need to jump multiple teams. After what the Blues did to the Kings Saturday, it certainly appears as if they're ready to break out. They scored SEVEN times in a huge win out in Staples Center, which was the same number of goals they'd scored - combined - in the previous six games (shut out three times). Let that win not make your forget that St. Louis has been ice cold of late, losing 9 of 11 games overall. To say I could see their previous result coming would be a lie as they were coming off a 2-0 loss to San Jose where they'd been outshot 36-16. But, out of nowhere, they turned around and dealt the Kings their worst loss of the season in a game that saw 83 total shots. Seven different players scored and the first three goals all came from defensemen. You have to think the offense is going to start improving down the home stretch, given how poorly they had performed on that end of the ice the last month. Anaheim has a pretty similar profile to St. Louis in that they are in the top seven in the league in goals allowed, but outside the top 20 in goals scored. Neither team's power play figures to set the world on fire, but both are sound on the penalty kill. That sounds like a recipe for an Under, but the Over is 3-0 this season in Ducks' home games if the O/U line is 5.0. The Over is 3-1 in Blues' road games at that number. Anaheim is off a 2-1 loss to Dallas that definitely hurt as they allowed 37 shots on goal. Both teams typically allow a high number shots per game (Ducks top five in that department), so I'm expecting this one to go Over the low number. 10* Over Blues/Ducks |
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03-12-18 | Senators +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Ottawa (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play where I am taking the Senators +1.5. For the Sens, this season is "all over but the shouting" as there is no chance they'll be making the playoffs. They've seemed resigned to this fate for some time now and have basically been the East's second worst team (them and Buffalo) much of the way. One has to wonder though if things would be a lot different had they turned some of those overtime/shootout losses into wins. The Sens are right near the top of the league w/ 11 "loser points" and a 2-7 record in shootouts is a league-worst. Though the opponent for tonight is red-hot, I believe Ottawa will do no worse than a one-goal defeat. For much of this season, I've been making the case that the Atlantic Division would only be sending its top three (and it's a strong top three) to the playoffs. But Florida has made quite the late charge to get into Wild Card contention and be a possible fourth playoff team from the division. The Panthers are 15-3-1 the L19 games and enter today trailing Columbus by only two points for the final spot. They've won eight of the last nine games (only loss was to TB, in overtime), however, I will point out that six of those nine games have been decided by one goal. Such a result, either way, is all we are looking for here. Also, 32 of Florida's 66 games played (almost half) have been decided by one goal. Oddsmakers have definitely taken notice of the Panthers as tonight marks the third straight game they'll be north of -200 on the money line. They won the previous two, including 4-3 over the Rangers in a shootout on Saturday. However, I still remain a bit skeptical. Florida has been outshot in three of its last four games and there really was nothing to suggest this run was forthcoming. Statistically, the Panthers are a pretty average team. Meanwhile, schedulemakers have done Ottawa no favors this year as this will be the first leg of their league-high 21 back to backs this season. They're in Tampa Bay tomorrow night, so if there's a game they're going to get points, it would be more than likely this one. Incredibly, the Sens have played six consecutive one-goal games (lost four) and have played 38 for the season, which is over half of their total games. 8* Puck Line Ottawa (+1.5). |
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03-11-18 | Stars v. Penguins -148 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:35 ET): No one has been able to pull away in the Metro this year and for all the teams not named Pittsburgh, that could prove fatal. The two-time defending Stanley Cup Champs have generally been the division's "best" team since the All-Star Break and as a result, a slower start than normal (to the season) has largely been erased. At one point, the Pens were in first place, but entering play today, they trail the rival Caps by one point. Sunday finds them hosting a Dallas team that's also in the thick of the playoff hunt, albeit in the other conference. The Stars actually have one more point than do the Pens, but are fourth in the brutally tough Central. To me, this one comes down to Pittsburgh's strong home ice advantage. They are 25-8-1 here at the Igloo this season. Now, the Pens will have to bounce back from a very disappointing 5-2 loss up in Toronto Saturday. The Leafs were the desperate team there, returning home after losing four in a row. They played like it, coming out w/ a greater sense of urgency and taking a 4-0 lead after two periods. It was a 3-0 game after just nine Maple Leafs' shots. However, it should be pointed out that the Pens finished w/ a pretty dramatic 40-26 edge in shots for the game. I expect Pittsburgh's offense to rebound tonight given they'd scored nine goals in the previous two games and four or more in three of their previous four. Dallas is improved defensively this year, but the Pens are 5th in goals scored per game and have the league's top power play (26%). The Stars' last game was a memorable one for me as it was my *10* Game of the Week (I had the Under) and the end result was a 2-1 game (in their favor). The Ducks were their victim Friday, but it was by no means an easy win as they had to score twice in the third period and both goals came via the power play. It's not like Dallas is known for being particularly strong when on the man advantage. Certainly they're nowhere near as good as Pittsburgh is on the PP. For the year, the Stars are just 20th w/ the man advantage. Keep in mind that prior to beating Anaheim, they were shutout by Nashville. That was their last road game and they've actually been shutout in two of their last three on the road. A lack of offense clearly won't cut it here. 10* Pittsburgh |
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03-11-18 | Islanders v. Flames -170 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
8* Calgary (7:05 ET): While the Flames are still very much alive in the Western Conference playoff hunt, the Islanders appear all but done out East. The Isles were a target of a recent play by me, Thursday in Edmonton, and they went down in a shootout by a score of 2-1. I don't think this second game in Alberta will go any better for them. They've now lost eight in a row and despite the last three all coming in extra time (meaning they've still picked up a point), the gap between them and the other Wild Card contenders in the East continues to grow. The Isles are currently nine points back of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Calgary sits 10th out of the 11 teams fighting for eight playoff spots out West. But they are only two points out of playoff position. After B2B road wins, look for the Flames to hold serve on home ice. Even before this eight-game losing streak, there was a major reason not to like the Isles and that's they rank dead last in the league in goals allowed. They're giving up an average of 3.5 per game, thereby nullifying the fact they are top eight in the league in scoring. Considering that dichotomy, Thursday was a bitter defeat in Edmonton as they held the Oilers to only one goal after 65 minutes (regulation + OT). Even worse is that the goal they allowed came w/ only 1:50 to go in the third period. Normally, the Islanders don't get that kind of goaltending, but Christopher Gibson stopped 35 of 36 shots. It's likely that Jaroslav Halak will be the one between the pipes tonight though and his save percentage his last four times out is a rather unsightly .868. As I mentioned above, the Flames are off B2B road wins. They beat Carolina and Ottawa, two not very good teams, by a combined score of 7-2. They've also outshot all four opponents this month, by a pretty significant margin. It's odd that Calgary has struggled this year at the Saddledome where they are only 14-15-4 for the year. But, they are a perfect 6-0 SU on Sundays, no matter where they've played. The next three games, all here at home, are huge considering the Flames will be favored to win all of them and they can't afford losses right now w/ the playoff race so log-jammed. Beating a team in terrible form like the Islanders should not prove difficult, especially considering the Flames won out in Brooklyn last month, 3-2, with a 42-25 edge in shots. 8* Calgary |
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03-10-18 | Devils v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Devils/Predators (8:05 ET): Few expected the Devils to be in the position that they're currently in right now, that being a potential playoff team in the East. That said, their hold on said spot is rather precarious right now as they would be the second of two Wild Card entrants (thus drawing Tampa Bay in the 1st round) and hard-charging Florida isn't far behind (only three points). Incredibly though, the gap between New Jersey and the team below them in the Metro standings (Carolina) is almost the same as the gap between NJ and 1st place Pittsburgh! So there's a wide range of options as to where the Devils may finish at season's end. Unfortunately for them though, they are in Nashville tonight. The Predators are the hottest team in the league right now, having won 10 games in a row. They have blown by Vegas for the top spot in the Western Conference and are now challenging Tampa Bay (one point back) for the President's Trophy. Keep in mind that when this team made its run to the Stanley Cup Finals last year, they entered as a Wild Card. This year's team is much stronger (i.e. deeper) and ranks in the top 12 in goals scored, goals allowed, penalty killing and the power play. Penalty killing is the only area they are not top six (12th). So, in other words, good luck to Devils tonight trying to win here in Nashville where the Preds have gone 24-7-3 SU this season. A big reason for the Preds' success is that they rank #1 in the league in goals allowed. They are allowing only 2.5 per game for the year and they've allowed just two total in the last two games, both coming in Thursday's win over Anaheim. New Jersey had no luck finding the back of the net when they hosted Nashville back in late January as they were shutout, 3-0. Pekka Rinne is making a strong case for the Vezina Trophy and has a .942 save percentage his L4 starts. The interesting thing w/ New Jersey's success this year is that its come despite them not being quite as stingy as past seasons. But I expect goaltender Corey Schnieder to play a lot better here than he did against Winnipeg on Thursday when the Devils lost 3-2 despite a 43-24 edge in shots. Six of the Devils last seven games have stayed Under the total. 10* Under Devils/Predators |
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03-10-18 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -160 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
8* Colorado (3:05 ET): This would be the definition of "must-win" for the Avs, who are hosting the worst team in the league at a time they struggling, yet still well within reach of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. While a top three finish in the Central Division is beginning to look less and less likely, the Wild Card is still a distinct possibility here as Colorado enters Saturday one point behind the Kings for the second of the two WC spots. As I I already alluded to, the Avs have not been playing well of late as they've dropped three straight, all by exactly one goal. Meanwhile, Arizona has actually gone 8-2-1 its L11 games, but still has the fewest # of points and the second worst goal differential in the league today. Colorado has enjoyed a pretty distinct home ice advantage in recent months, going 13-1-1 its last 15 games at the Pepsi Center. One of those two losses took place on Sunday when they hosted red-hot Nashville. That was then followed w/ B2B road losses to Chicago and Columbus. Arizona did come here to Denver and win back in December, but I don't see history repeating itself here. Note that four days before suffering that home loss, the Avs won in Arizona by a score of 6-2. Another key here is the possible return of goalie Jonathan Bernier, who has missed the last 10 games due to a concussion. The team won only 4 of those 10 games, but four losses were in extra time. Bernier brings a .930 save percentage at home, but Semyon Varlamov isn't a bad option either as he's been an even stingier .935. Colorado ranks 9th in the league in goals per game. That's a huge edge over Arizona, who is 30th (next to last) and there shouldn't be much problem here scoring for the Avs as the 'Yotes rank 26th in goals against. Playing w/ exactly two days' rest (as they are here), Arizona is a hideous 1-10 SU this season. This is the end of a three-game "Northwest" swing for the Coyotes, who played in Edmonton and Vancouver earlier this week. They actually dominated the Canucks (34-17 edge in shots), but those kind of performances have been few and far between for the club in 2017-18. Certainly, I don't expect them to play that well again. Meanwhile, after three straight OT losses, this afternoon is the Avs' time. 8* Colorado |
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03-09-18 | Ducks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Ducks/Stars (8:35 ET): As most are these days, this is a really key game in the Western Conference. Right now, you essentially have 11 teams competing for the eight playoff spots. The top three in each division are guaranteed entry. Anaheim is third in the Pacific, but just one point behind San Jose (who was a winner for me last night!) and only only point ahead of Los Angeles (who I believe is better than both of its California rivals). Over in the Central, Dallas is in fourth place and has the same number of points as Anaheim (80). The Stars trail third place Minnesota by three points and are ahead of fifth place Colorado by only two. So expect a "playoff-like atmosphere" in this one, which means a low-scoring game. Take the Under. As I've discussed previously, there's been a transformation w/ the Stars this season and one for the better. In previous seasons, this was an "all offense, no defense" type team. Even when they won the Central two years ago, they still ranked 19th in goals allowed. Last year, they missed the playoffs, sinking all the way down to 29th in goals allowed. This year, they're all the way up to 4th! Unfortunately for them, however, the offense betrayed them in a shutout loss (2-0) to Nashville. It was the third straight game to go Under for the Stars and four of the last five has seen five or fewer total goals scored. That's what I like to see w/ a play like this. Conversely, Anaheim has been at or near the top of the league in goals allowed the past two seasons. They ranked 1st in 2015-16 and 3rd last season. This year, they're "down" to 6th, but that's just fine (they're also #3 in penalty killing). Ironically, they too are off a loss at Nashville, their coming last night by a score of 4-2. That marked just the third time in the last 13 games that the Ducks allowed three or more goals in regulation. On offense, they are in the bottom 10 in goals per game, so I'll look past the recent uptick in scoring that occurred prior to the Nashville loss. The only prior meeting between these two teams this season took place last month in Anaheim and while Dallas had a 41-17 edge in shots, they were blanked 2-0. That is one of three shutouts for the Ducks in their last eight games overall. Anaheim is also 12-5 Under this year after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. 10* Under Ducks/Stars |
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03-08-18 | Blues v. Sharks -142 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
8* San Jose (10:35 ET): In a Western Conference playoff race that runs 11 teams deep, neither the Sharks nor the Blues can be feeling very good about themselves right now, St. Louis in particular. The Blues are sixth in the Central Division and while only two points back of the final Wild Card spot, they actually have to jump three teams. San Jose is third in the Pacific, meaning they'd be guaranteed a playoff spot, but has only a two-point edge over the Kings and the Ducks recently passed them for second place. Both teams were at one point considered very probable playoff contenders. Now both are in dire need of two points. Things have gone very badly for the Blues dating back to mid-February as they have lost eight of their last nine games. I have been on the correct side of each of their last three games, including the lone win during the nine-game stretch, that coming at home against Detroit on 2.28. At the time, I wrote how important that game was for them as it was their only home game from 2.24 to 3.15. They were also coming off an ugly 8-3 loss to Minnesota the previous night. As alluded to, they did beat the Red Wings, but the good times did not last as they fell in OT at Dallas on Saturday afternoon. All this time off to prepare them for the dreaded Southern California trip seems nice, but time off alone cannot cure all that ails this club. Two key players - defenseman Jay Bouwemeester and forward Scottie Upshall - were injured Saturday and will miss significant time. That's the last thing this team needed right now. Also, their one strength, goaltending, has taken a dive recently w/ both Carter Hutton and Jake Allen posting sub-.900 save percentages their last four starts each. San Jose has the league's top penalty killing unit, so they match up well w/ a St. Louis team that is 29th on the power play. The Blues also don't score much period as they are 25th in goals per game. There have been only two times in the nine-game swoon where the Blues have scored more than two goals. One of them was against Minnesota when they also happened to give up eight! Prior to losing to Columbus at home on Sunday (so Sharks are well-rested too), the Sharks had won B2B games here, beating Edmonton and Chicago while scoring 12 goals in the process. 8* San Jose |
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03-08-18 | Islanders v. Oilers -140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): The Oilers are arguably the league's biggest disappointment this season, but that didn't stop me from taking them Monday and they beat Arizona 4-3 in overtime. Now there really isn't anything special about beating arguably the worst team in the league, at home. However, tonight's matchup also seems ideal. They'll host the rapidly fading Islanders, who are losers of seven in a row and in last place in the Metro. Making this an even better matchup from Edmonton's perspective is the fact the Isles are one of only two teams giving up more goals per game they are! In fact, the Isles allow the most goals per game in the league! Look for the Oilers to take advantage of that and get the two points. Edmonton has been killed by their special teams this season as they rank last in the league both on the power play and penalty killing. They are only 20th in goals per game, but given the number of shots per game we see from them, that ranking should probably be higher. Opposing goaltenders have a .917 save percentage against them, but they shouldn't have to worry about the Islanders' defense, which gives up a ton of shots in addition to the most goals per game. Likely starting here for NY is Jaroslav Halak, whose save percentage is an ugly .868 the L4 games. In Monday's OT loss at Vancouver, Halak surrendered four goals on only 23 shots. Edmonton is near the top of the league w/ an average of 34.0 per game. The Islanders allow the most at 35.7 per game. Edmonton won out in Brooklyn way back in November. They've also beaten the Islanders six of the last seven times they've hosted them. While three of the games during the Isles' seven-game skid have come in extra time, they are an ideal matchup for the Oilers based not only on history, but based on the fact they are just as bad at giving up goals (actually worse) and equally as bad at penalty killing. I look for Edmonton to win a relatively high scoring affair here. 10* Edmonton |
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03-07-18 | Coyotes v. Canucks -140 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): The Canucks rarely - if ever - receive an endorsement from me, but before you go writing this play off as a byproduct of a small NHL card Wednesday, take a look at the opponents. It's that same Arizona team we played against two nights ago (in Edmonton) and came away w/ a winning ticket. Coming into this season, the Coyotes were projected to be the worst team in the league and they have not disappointed, ranking last in points and goal differential. Their eight road wins are also the fewest in the league. Vancouver isn't too far ahead of them, and certainly a bottom five team themselves, but this is one spot where they absolutely deserve to be favored and should win. Sure enough, the Canucks are already in off a win here as they beat the Islanders 4-3 Monday night. The win took place here on home ice and it was the seventh time in the last eight games they scored at least three goals. That kind of production sure comes in handy when facing the 30th ranked team in goals per game (out of 31). Now Vancouver is w/o leading scorer Brock Boeser for the rest of the season as the rookie sustained a pretty serious back injury in closing minutes of regulation vs. the Isles. But the team did manage to win w/o him, scoring 2:47 into overtime. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking the Canucks are a "good" home team, but they certainly are more than capable of beating Arizona on home ice. Arizona has gone 7-2-1 its L10 games, but that recent success is what made it such an easy decision to fade them at Edmonton Monday as the likelihood of them sustaining it seemed small. Over the L5 games, they've averaged less than 2.0 goals per game and on the road this season they're being outscored by more than a full goal per game. Goaltending has never been a strong point w/ this team and their one decent one (Antti Ranta) is battling a lower-body injury. Jacob Markstrom is no "world beater" for the Canucks either, but made 41 saves in a win at Arizona two weeks ago. That result improved Vancouver to 7-3 the L10 meetings. 10* Vancouver |
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03-06-18 | Capitals v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under Capitals/Ducks (10:05 ET): These two each won their respective divisions last season, but 2017-18 is proving to be a bit more challenging for both. The Caps are in first place in the Metro, mind you, but are nowhere near as dominant as they were a season ago. That said they did just beat Toronto 5-2 in an outdoor game in Annapolis, scoring all five goals in the first two periods. Anaheim is also in off B2B victories and scored a ton in their last one as well. They beat Chicago 6-3 here at The Pond back on Sunday. It's been a high-scoring homestand thus far for the Ducks, but w/ the Caps having to "readjust" after playing outdoors and these being two good teams, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair tonight. Take the Under. Tonight wraps up a four-game homestand for the Ducks and so far all three games have gone Over. Things started w/ a 6-5 loss to Edmonton, but they've since rallied for a 4-2 win over Columbus and the aforementioned 6-3 win over Chicago. It's not like this offensive surge is commonplace for the Ducks, who rank only 22nd in the league in goals per game. Consider in the three previous games, all were shutouts, two in their favor and one not. They do rank 6th in the league in goals allowed and are 5th in penalty killing. Note that projected starting goalie John Gibson has a ridiculously good .945 save percentage his L4 starts. He's 7-1-1 since the Break, which has allowed Anaheim to crawl (skate?) back into playoff position. Washington will play its next three game all out in California w/ stops in LA and San Jose to follow. They've had issues keeping the opponent out of the back of the net in road games this season, but Braden Holtby figures to be a lot more stout here than he was outdoors vs. Toronto. Holtby also struggled in Columbus last week, but again Anaheim is hardly prolific and biorhythms suggests both offenses are bound to cool off here. In fact, the Ducks have yet to go Over in four consecutive games at any point this season, going 3-0 Under when they are off three straight Overs, a trend that applies tonight. Washington has been held to three or fewer goals in six of its last eight games overall. 10* Under Capitals/Ducks |
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03-06-18 | Stars v. Predators -165 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
8* Nashville (8:05 ET): In my analysis of the Ottawa-Dallas game last night, I wrote that it was a game the Stars "needed badly." But because of the money line, I opted to instead play the total (Under), which won. Good thing I did because the Stars lost to one of the five worst teams in the league, 3-2 in overtime, at home no less. That makes tonight's spot, which was going to be tough to begin with, even tougher. Dallas visits Nashville here and the Preds have won eight in a row to take control of the Central Division. Last year's Stanley Cup runner-ups are now thinking President's Trophy as they have the most points in the Western Conference and are just one point behind Tampa Bay for the overall league lead. It only seems logical to endorse them on home ice, facing an unrested foe. The Preds' eight-game win streak has seen them outscore the opposition by more than a 2:1 margin (37-18). There have been some close calls recently, such as the 4-3 overtime win at Colorado on Sunday (I had them there!). But note that was also the team's third road game in four nights and the previous two were up in Western Canada. The trip also began w/ a 6-5 win at Winnipeg, which is very impressive. Now Nashville is back home where they've gone 22-7-3 SU this season. Really, I'm surprised that the home record isn't even better as they're outscoring visitors by a full goal per game at Bridgestone Arena. They're #6 in goals per game at home and overall this season. Combine that w/ the fact they are #3 in goals allowed and you have yourself a team that belongs on EVERYONE's short list for Stanley Cup contenders. Losing to a bad team wasn't the only bad news to come out of last night's game for Dallas. Goalie Ben Bishop also left w/ a knee injury and will miss at least two games. He wasn't going to start tonight anyway, but it's absolutely worth noting that backup Kari Lehtonen has a poor .899 save percentage in division games. The Stars were already banged up even before the Bishop injury as three forwards will be missing this game as well. Last night's loss may prove very costly for Dallas in the big picture and it definitely hurts them tonight. 8* Nashville |
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03-05-18 | Coyotes v. Oilers -154 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): This has been a real "downer" of a season for the Oilers, but if there's one matchup they should be able to take full advantage of, it's this one where they're hosting the lowly Coyotes. The difference between these two teams is that while Edmonton has been a giant disappointment, Arizona has been every bit as bad as expected. The 'Yotes currently rank last in the league in points (50), have the second worst goal differential (-54) and are second worst in goals scored per game (2.4). The Oilers have lost three in a row, but have legit revenge here after being shutout in the desert, 1-0, back on February 17th. I look for 2018-19 to be a big bounce back season for Edmonton. But for now they'll just have to resign themselves to the fact this wasn't their year. Following LY's renaissance, fans were thinking the team would be a Cup contender this year. But things got off to a disastrous start and they never recovered. However, one thing the team does well is get the puck on net, especially at home. Edmonton is averaging 36.1 shots per game at home, one of the best marks in the league. They are actually seventh in the league right now in shot per game differential. One would think that would translate into more victories, but it hasn't. The problem has been lousy goaltending (team is 31st in save percentage) coupled w/ ridicuously good goaltending from the opposition. Opposing goalies have posted a .917 save percentage vs. the Oilers this season. Arizona is not strong between the pipes however, and I look for that to be key here tonight. Antii Ranta will be the starting goalie for the 'Yotes and while he turned in a 40-save shutout the last time against the Oilers, I don't see a strong likelihood of him duplicating that performance. Arizona is tied for the fewest number of road wins in the league w/ just eight. Now I should mention they've been playing well of late, winning B2B games and seven of their last nine. But despite all that, they're still at the bottom of the league. Two points haven't come easy for the Oilers all season, but they should here. 10* Edmonton |
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03-05-18 | Senators v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Under Senators/Stars (8:35 ET): Dallas needs this game badly. They're at home and facing one of the bottom five teams in the league. Entering tonight, they have a three-point cushion on a Wild Card spot, but are also only two points back of third place Minnesota in the Central. Again, given the "lay of the land," Ottawa is a team they have to beat. The oddsmakers are all too aware of this, however, and have installed the Stars as massive money line favorites. So, for me, that's really not an option. But where I do see value is the total as Dallas' reputation for playing high-scoring games has not really played out this season. Take the Under. Saturday, I had the Stars as they picked up a key win over St. Louis, 3-2 in overtime. In my analysis of that matchup, I noted the transformation that has taken place here in "Big D" this season as goaltending has led the way and will be the reason this team likely makes the playoffs. The Stars are 4th right now in goals allowed, a massive jump from last year when they ranked near the bottom of the league in that department. At home, they've been even stingier, giving up an average of just 2.43 goals per game. Now there have been some recent "hiccups" in that department as the Stars have allowed five or more goals four times in the nine games. But they've allowed two or fewer in each of the other five, including two shutouts.Ben Bishop is the likely starter in goal tonight and he's been outstanding all year at home w/ a .930 save percentage. \ Ottawa stinks, no matter how you slice it. They have just one win in the last seven games and ironically it came at Vegas of all places. That was a 5-4, but other than that they haven't scored more than three goals in a game since 2.17. They are 24th in the league in scoring. (Dallas, for the record, has a "middle of the road" 15th place ranking in that department). The Sens just lost 2-1 to Arizona on Saturday as they generated only 24 shots on goal. The key here will be keeping the Dallas' offense in check, but in a battle of two teams that are either average or well below average in goal scoring, I see no reason why the O/U line should be this high. 8* Under Senators/Stars |
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03-04-18 | Predators -150 v. Avalanche | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
10* Nashville (3:05 ET): Nobody is as hot as the Preds right now as your Central Division leaders have the longest active win streak in the NHL right now at seven games and counting. One can only imagine how fired up "SMASHVILLE" is right now considering LY's playoff run which saw the team come in as a Wild Card, not potentially the #1 seed in the Western Conference. It has been complete domination during this seven-game win streak as they've outscored the opposition 33-15. While they did need OT to get by Vancouver Friday night, the other six wins all came in regulation. No way I'm not jumping on board today at this price, even though the opponent (Colorado) is on its own mini win-streak. Nobody, myself included, expected the Avs to be any kind of playoff contender in 2018. After all, they were the worst team in the league a season ago, by a mile. But they've already easily surpassed LY's point total (48!) and enter Sunday one point behind the final Wild Card in the Western Conference (Anaheim). They've won three in a row, all here on home ice, including a shocking 7-1 rout of Minnesota on Friday. The Avs only had 26 shots on goal for the game, but quickly knocked out Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk after scoring five times on their first 17 shots. Goals will NOT come as easy today against Pekka Rinne, who is having himself a Vezina-caliber season, including a .941 save percentage his L4 starts. Rinne's presence is a big reason why the Preds have beaten the Avs eight straight times. Now Colorado has won 13 of its last 14 at home, but Nashville happens to be one of the league's best road teams. Tonight, the Preds look to make it a perfect 4-0 road trip. While they did need extra time to get by the Canucks on Friday, note it was a 42-27 edge in shots for Nashville. That was the second game in a row w/ 40+ shots on goal. The Preds are not only sixth in the league in scoring, but also second in goals allowed. Only Tampa Bay has more points. Simply put, you don't want to be playing against this team right now, not w/ the fact they averaged 5.0 goals and 40.4 shots the last five games. Yes, Colorado is hot too and a good home team. But the bottom line is they are not in the "Predators' league." 10* Nashville |
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03-03-18 | Blues v. Stars -160 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
8* Dallas (2:05 ET): St. Louis picked up a rare and much-needed two points Wednesday when they beat Detroit by a score of 2-1. That win snapped a seven-game losing streak that had the Blues slipping down the Central Division standings at a fairly rapid pace. It was also on home ice. Unfortunately for the Blues, it's back to the road as a four-game trip starts tonight. (They'll be out in California for the other three). Needless to say, this is a very big game for both teams as Dallas is currently fourth in the Central w/ 77 pts. That's three ahead of sixth place St. Louis and two back of third place Minnesota. Remember that the top three in each division are guaranteed to make the postseason. I've been saying all year long that five will get in from the Central and the Stars are going to be one of them. I like the home favorite this afternoon. For Dallas, today marks the fourth game of a five-game homestand, which hasn't really gotten off to a good start. Sure, there's no shame in losing to league-leading Tampa Bay (which the Stars did Thursday) nor Winnipeg (who won here on 2.24). But still, Dallas has been a good home team this season (22-10-2) and you would think they'd do a better job at protecting their own rink. Now the loss to the Lightning did see the Stars finish w/ a decided edge in shots and pick up a point as the game went into overtime. Still though, given how tightly packed the Central Division is right now, they can't afford another loss. It was just over two weeks ago when the Stars beat the Blues 2-1 here at American Airlines Center. In fact, the home team has won all four prior head to head matchups this season. Dallas ranking 4th in the league in goals allowed is NOT something I would have expected coming into the season. St. Louis is also top five, but the Stars have a decided edge on the offensive end where they rank 15th in goals per game while the Blues are 25th. Over the L4 games, St. Louis has been shutout twice and given up eight goals in another loss. Dallas is outscoring its visitors by nearly a full goal per game this season. Having Ben Bishop on the roster is a big reason why Dallas has been so much better between the pipes this season. Meanwhile, it sounds as if the Blues will turn to backup goalie Carter Hutton tonight. Hutton has a save percentage of .889 his L4 starts. 8* Dallas |
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03-02-18 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Under Devils/Hurricanes (7:35 ET): Carolina certainly got one over one me last night as they went into Philadelphia and not only snapped their own six-game losing streak, but also snapped the Flyers' six game win streak. It was an emotional 4-1 victory w/ captain Jordan Staal making a surprise return to the ice following the death of his infant daughter. The 'Canes quickly jumped out to a 3-0 advantage and never looked back, limiting Philly to just 22 shots on goal. Tonight, they get to return to Raleigh and face one of the teams they are attempting to chase down in the Metro, that being New Jersey. The Devils have been one of the biggest surprises in the legaue this year, but did lose last night, 3-2 at Florida. So we've got both teams playing the second game of a back to back. It's also the third game in four nights for both sides. For New Jersey, all three will have been on the road. Playing on back to back days, the Devils are 6-6 SU this year and have an O/U record of 7-5. For Carolina, they are just 5-8 SU playing w/o rest and 9-3-1 Under. These teams met twice in February w/ the Devils winning both times, 5-2 at home and 3-2 here in Raleigh. Carolina, as we often see, had more shots on goal only to come out on the losing end (both times). Last night stopped a streak of six consecutive games scoring three or fewer goals for the 'Canes. I think we can expect a low-scoring game tonight. The Under is 5-0-1 in New Jersey's last six games. Keith Kinkaid is the likely starter in goal for them as Corey Schneider played last night. Kinkaid made 40 saves in the last meeting w/ Carolina and has a .946 save percentage his L4 starts. Goaltending has been a concern all year for the 'Canes, but New Jersey is only 15th in goals per game while Carolina themselves ranks 26th. We don't see an O/U line of 6.0 very often w/ either of these teams. For Carolina, this will be just the fifth time and for New Jersey only the 11th. 8* Under Devils/Hurricanes |
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03-02-18 | Canadiens v. Islanders -120 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): The Islanders are by no means out of playoff contention as we move into March, however, they've certainly done themselves no favors of late. It's a four-game losing streak coming into tonight where they'll face the team that just beat them on Wednesday, Montreal. Only this time, the matchup will be on home ice. In Montreal, the Canadiens prevailed 3-1, which was their fifth straight game w/ at least a point. However, this is still a team "going nowhere" and w/ goaltending issues to boot, I just can't see the Habs beating the Isles twice in a row. While they have recorded a point in five straight games, the Habs have still come out on the short end in three of those. If the Isles ultimately fail to make the postseason, it won't be any secret as to what went wrong. They currently rank dead last in the league in goals allowed, giving up an average of 3.6 per game. However, it's the offense that has burned them the L2 games, scoring just one goal each time out. This is a team that ranks 7th in the league in gpg, so we're certainly accustomed to seeing more scoring out of them. They've allowed a total of only five goals the last two games. I fully expect the offense to get back on track here as the Habs have a pretty shaky goaltending situation going on right now. That goaltending situation involves Carey Price being out due to a concussion. Antti Niemi is the de facto #1 between the pipes right now and while he's gone 2-0-1 his L3 starts (made 27 saves Wednesday), I'm not sure I'd trust him considering he has a save percentage below .900 this season. On the road, his save percentage dips down to a really ugly .862. The Habs aren't a good road team anyway as their record away from home this year is just 8-19-2. Therefore, look for this trip (6 games in 12 days) to officially "sink their season.' 10* NY Islanders |
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03-01-18 | Hurricanes v. Flyers -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): I played the Flyers back on 2.20 when they were able to rally for a 3-2 overtime win over Montreal. It's a shame that I haven't played them more recently as this is a hot team right now. They've won six in a row and 10 of the last 11 to move into second place in the Metro and now only trail first place Washington (idle tonight) by a single point. Going back even further, we find them at 26-8-3 since December 4th. Really, were it not for a 10-game losing streak (five of those coming in OT/shootout) in late November, this would likely be considered one of the top teams in the league. On the other end of the spectrum, you have Carolina, losers of six straight and playing a third consecutive road game. This price is way too low considering the current states of the respective teams. While Philly's aformentioned long losing streak in November saw a lot of bad luck, the current win streak has predictably seen a lot of good fortune. Five of their last 10 wins have come in extra time, including Monday's 1-0 win over Montreal, which went to a shootout. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this isn't a great team. They haven't been beaten in regulation since Feb 1. Goaltending was the only concern I had w/ this club and that was addressed with the acquisition of Peter Mrazek at the deadline. Mrazek has started the L3 games and has a 1.30 GAA and .947 save percentage. He's a good bet to start tonight considering a 6-1 lifetime record vs. Carolina that comes w/ a 1.71 GAA and .951 save percentage. Meanwhile, as good as things are going in the City of Brotherly Love right now, it's just as bad down in Carolina. The Hurricanes finally managed to score some goals Tuesday vs. Boston (three), yet still lost in overtime. While the team continues to outshoot its opponents by a solid margin, it's simply not translating into victories right now. The 'Canes will also be w/o captain Jordan Staal this evening, which is obviously a major loss. While Philly addressed its goaltending problems, Carolina's still persist as they rank 30th in overall save percentage at .896. Neither Scott Darling nor Cam Ward has been in decent form lately, so there's no real good option here. The 'Canes are just 12-23 SU this year when facing a team w/ a winning record. 8* Philadelphia |
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02-28-18 | Red Wings v. Blues -159 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues lost their seventh straight game last night and it was in ugly fashion, 8-3 at Minnesota. I was on the Wild and that wasn't the first time I played against the ice cold Blues during this losing streak. But as "un-complimentary" as I've been towards them recently (justifiably so!), I'm jumping on board tonight! They're back home and facing a Detroit team I don't have much respect for. Consider that when these two old Norris Division rivals met in December, not only did St. Louis win 6-1 in the Motor City, but they were -150 on the money line. By comparison, we're getting tremendous value on the Blues at home tonight. The long losing streak finally ends tonight. After losing three straight home games by identical 3-2 scores, the Red Wings have bounced back w/ consecutive victories. The last one, in Madison Square Garden, required overtime to defeat the Rangers 3-2. The Rangers, like St. Louis here, have been a cold team. They too have lost seven in a row and are 3-13-1 L17 overall. But despite this, I don't see Detroit winning B2B road games. This trip, which will continue w/ visits to Boston, Minnesota and Winnipeg, could likely sink the Wings' season. They're only hope of making the playoffs is the Wild Card and it's quite the gap to make up w/ a ton of teams to jump. This team is 27th in the league in goals per game and only 11-17 SU when facing an opponent that has a winning record. There's no sugarcoating the Blues' last three results. We're talking the wrong end of two 4-0 shutouts, then they lost 8-3 last night. Tonight will be their only home game over a 19-day stretch. Next time they'll play at the Scottrade Center is March 15th vs. Colorado. So I fully expect tonight's game to be treated w/ the utmost importance. This string of recent results is very unlike St. Louis, who still ranks 8th in the league in goals allowed. The offense went an incredible 150:23 w/o a goal before Vladimir Tarasenko found the back of the net in the 2nd perod. It's unclear who will be in goal tonight (both Jake Allen and Carter Hutton saw ice time last night), but regardless, I give the Blues the edge between the pipes in this matchup. With Peter Mrazek dealt, Detroit is basically left w/ only Jimmy Howard, who only has an .899 save percentage vs. non-conference foes. 10* St. Louis |
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02-27-18 | Oilers v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Oilers/Sharks (10:35 ET): This is a big game for the Sharks, who have lost three in a row. Their most recent defeat was rough as they blew a two-goal lead in Minnesota on Sunday and lost in overtime. (I had the Wild!). They're still in second place in the Pacific mind you (75 points), but the fifth place team has 73 points, so one more loss could be extremely detrimental. As much as I want to "pull the trigger" here and take them against Edmonton, I just can't. The Oilers, who are this season's biggest disappointment, have won three in a row and are playing much better right now. What I can predict, however, is this will be a high-scoring game. Take the Over. Edmonton's three-game win streak has seen them score a total of 13 goals. They outlasted Anaheim Sunday night, winning 6-5 in a shootout. Really, goal scoring should never have been an issue for the Oilers this year. They are near the top of the league in shots per game (34.0), but seem to be snake-bitten as opposing goaltenders have posted a somewhat stunning .916 save percentage against them. That's among the highest marks in the league. Of course, that can be overcome, but not when you're own goaltending is lousy and such is the case w/ the Oilers, who have seen their netminders post a collective .896 save percentage this year. That's the worst mark in the league and a big reason why they allow the third most goals per game. Also, they are dead last in penalty killing. San Jose looks to have a massive edge on special teams here as they are #1 in the league in penalty killing and sixth on the power play. I do look for the Sharks' offensive numbers to start improving on this homestand, which will take them through the middle of March. When it comes to the number of shots and goals per game, both numbers are up significantly when they play at "The Tank." They also just added Evander Kane (20 goals/20 assists) at the trade deadline. At the same time though, I am concerned w/ the number of shots they've been allowing of late. That number is 36.5 per game over the L5 contests. It's very likely Edmonton is going to get a lot of scoring chances here and I'm just not very confident in either Sharks' goaltender right now. 10* Over Oilers/Sharks |
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02-27-18 | Blues v. Wild -145 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Something I've harped on throughout this NHL season is that in each conference, one division is far superior to the other. In the Western Conference, the Central Division has better of the two and thus will likely produce five playoff teams (get both Wild Cards) as opposed to the likely three from the Pacific. While it's either Winnipeg or Nashville that will win the Central, Minnesota is also making a "hard charge" up the standings as they are currently in third place w/ 77 points and on a four-game win streak. Trending in the opposite direction is tonight's opponent, St. Louis, who has lost six in a row to fall into fifth and for right now, on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the playoff picture. It's been division games that have really hurt the Blues during this losing streak w/ four of the six games coming against Central foes. Really, this game sets up no differently than when I played against them Sunday afternoon in Nashville. The result there for St. Louis was a second straight 4-0 shutout loss as Winnipeg did the same thing to them on Friday (at home). Finding the back of the net has been a real problem for the Blues this year as they rank 22nd in the league in goals per game, not to mention 28th on the power play. Getting outscored 8-0 the L2 games may be a low-point for the season, but they've also topped two goals only one time during this losing streak. Quite simply, they're a team I want no part of right now. Minnesota, on the other hand, treated me well Sunday. They rallied back from a two-goal deficit (here at home) to defeat San Jose in overtime, 3-2. It was their fourth consecutive win and they've scored at least three goals in all four victories. So this really is a matchup of two teams trending in very different directions. Recent form isn't the only reason this is a terrible matchup for St. Louis, however. As stated in my analysis for Sunday's game, the Wild lead the league in fewest number of goals allowed at home (2.2 per game). So, the Blues' offensive struggles are very likely to continue tonight. Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk has a .931 save percentage here at the XCel Center. The Wild won in St. Louis (6-2!) earlier this month and don't discount the motivation from behind the bench as HC Mike Yeo was fired by the Blues last season. 8* Minnesota |
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02-26-18 | Canucks v. Avalanche -170 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
8* Colorado (9:05 ET): An Avalanche team desperate for two points gets a break Monday in that they get to host lowly Vancouver. These teams just faced off last week and the Avs won 5-4, in overtime. Why is this game so important to the Avs? Well, they're starting to fall behind the pack when it comes to the playoff chase. They are four points back of the final Wild Card, but are looking at having to jump several teams. A return home to face a weak opponent should do the trick. The Avs are 20-8-1 on home ice. The Canucks have just two wins in the last 10 games (entering Sunday) and have given up 11 goals in the last two. No one expected the Avs to be a playoff contender this year. After all, they were the worst team in the league last season by a wide margin. But they have surprised and then some. They already have 21 more points than all of last season. Injuries along the blue line have started to slow them down over the last week. But it's been the #10 offense in goals per game that has mostly carried them. They outshot the Canucks last week, 34-28, and I imagine they'll do the same again here. There's a chance Vancover comes into this game on a three-game losing streak, although they play at Arizona Sunday night and if there's one team (on paper) that they should beat, it's the 'Yotes. Regardless of what happens there, I'm definitely playing against the Canucks. They've been outscored by 36 goals this season (as of press time) and will be playing the second game of a back to back. It will also be a third road game in four nights. If they win Sunday, it makes sense to fade them as this isn't a team that wins B2B games very often. A loss and they'll all the more demoralized. Their goaltending situation is not good, which makes them an even better fade in this situation. 8* Colorado |
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02-25-18 | Sharks v. Wild -138 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Right now, they are basically 11 viable contenders for the eight playoff spots in the Western Conference. These two are counted among them. Both are in the top three in their respective divisions, but those positions are tenuous to say the least. San Jose is second in the Pacific w/ 74 points and isn't likely to be catching 1st place Vegas. The Sharks' greater concern should revolve around who may catch them as three teams in the Pacific are within three points of them. Back to back losses in Nashville and Chicago certainly weren't encouraging either. Now they head to the Twin Cities to face a Wild team coming off a highly successful 3-0 East Coast swing. Home ice should provide the neccessary advantage in this one though. Like San Jose in the Pacific, upward mobility for Minnesota in the Central is somewhat limited. They are unlikely to catch the two teams ahead of them, Winnipeg and Nashville, as there's an eight point gap right now. As is the case w/ the Sharks, it's staying in front of who's behind them that's more important right now. Dallas is only one point back of Minnesota while struggling St. Louis is only three points back. Again though, you have to be impressed w/ how the Wild dominated their recent road trip and scored 13 times in beating the Rangers, Islanders and Devils. Yet they're also certainly happy to be back home where their record somewhat underlies how well they've played here. The team has more OT/shootout losses (6) at home than regulation losses (5). They have 20 wins and are outscoring teams by a full goal per game. No team allows fewer goals per game at home than the Wild (2.16). San Jose is near the bottom of the league in goals scored on the road and we've seen that play out the L2 games as they scored just one time against both Nashville and Chicago. Special teams have been huge for the Sharks this year, but they've also been giving up a ton of shots recently. Martin Jones, who has an unsustainable .950 save percentage his L4 starts, cannot continue to bail his team out at that rate. I mentioned earlier that the Wild give up the fewest number of goals per game in the league at home. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk has a .931 save percentage at the XCel Center this season. 8* Minnesota |
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02-25-18 | Blues v. Predators -145 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
8* Nashville (12:05 ET): In some analysis written earlier this week, I'd written that I wasn't sure who would end up winning the Central Division, but it would "probably be Nashville or Winnipeg." Those two teams enter Sunday deadlocked at the top w/ 83 points apiece. I had the Predators in their last game, which ended up being a 7-1 romp over San Jose, the team's third consecutive win overall. The Preds are clearly one of the top teams in the sport this season and it's difficult not to like them in this early start time, on home ice, against the struggling Blues. St. Louis has now lost five in a row after being shutout (at home) by Winnipeg on Friday. As a result, their playoff chances have grown more precarious by the day. Among the Blues' five straight losses was a visit here to Music City. They fell 4-3 to the Preds, a game that went into overtime. At the time, it was the fifth consecutive game for Nashville that went into extra time. They'd go onto lose their next two, but have since won three straight, scoring 15 total goals in the process. When they beat the Blues, there was definitely some good fortune involved. Not only did they rally from a three-goal deficit in the third period, but the game winner in OT was scored on a penalty shot. Still, it's been more of a case of skill than luck when it comes to the Preds' success in 2018. Goaltender Pekka Rinne has been the driving force behind Nashville ranked #2 in goals allowed in the league. Rinner has also beaten St. Louis seven of the last nine times he's faced them and given up just four goals total in three games against them this season, three of them coming in that last meeting. Facing the Blues at a time when they've scored only seven times over a five-game span seems advantageous. Here at home, Nashville is outscoring opponents by nearly a full goal per game to begin with and is likely to facing a struggling goaltender today as Carter Hutton sports a poor .875 percentage his L4 starts. The Blues aren't a terribly dynamic offensive team to begin with and I don't think this early start time on the road does them any favors, quite frankly. 8* Nashville |
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02-24-18 | Lightning -154 v. Canadiens | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): I've talked about this many times previously, but it bears repeating. It didn't take long this season for the Atlantic Division to divide itself into the have's and have not's. The division is comprised of three of the top six teams in the sport (in terms of goal differential), but the other five are also-rans at best w/ a few contending for worst team in the league. Here, from the first group we have Tampa Bay, who has led the division the whole way and is the current clubhouse leader for the President's Trophy (most points in the league). On other side, there's Montreal, a team that has fallen off badly this season (won division LY!) and had lost six in a row prior to Thursday's win over the equally cold Rangers. This is Tampa's third road game in five nights. They won the first two, winning at Washington and Ottawa, scoring four goals in both games. The top scoring team in the league has now scored at least three goals in eight consecutive games. Now they were outshot, pretty severely, by both the Caps and Sens. But that's not part for the course, obviously. No team is even close to the Lightning's 21 road wins and they've outscored opponents by 0.8 gpg at their own rinks! They did lose here in Montreal back in January, but had a 45-38 edge in shots. It was a red hot Carey Price in goal that night for the Habs, but the former Vezina winner hasn't been that caliber a netminder for much of this season. Case in point; his save percentage in his L4 starts is .886. Price's decline has been a major part of the overall team decline this year in Montreal. Then again, they also rank 28th in goals scored per game, so it's been a real "all around" effort here. I give a big edge to the Lightning between the pipes in this one as they elected to rest Andrei Vasilevskiy against Ottawa, meaning he'll be extra fresh for tonight. Vasilevskiy has won 8 of his previous 11 starts and given up two goals or fewer in 28 of 49 starts this season. His seven shutouts lead the league and he has a save percentage of .937 on the road. As mentioned before, Montreal is off a win, but prior to that they'd dropped six in a row and allowed five or more goals in three of those defeats. They're only 8-19 SU this year against teams w/ a winning record. 8* Tampa Bay |
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02-23-18 | Sharks v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Sharks/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Chicago is desperately trying to right the ship here as they are stuck in last place in the Central w/ a lot of ground to make up and many teams to jump, if they are to make the playoffs for a 10th consecutive year. Last Saturday saw them snap an eight-game losing streak w/ a 7-1 win over Washington, looking like the "Blackhawks of old." However, they went right back to their losing ways on Monday as they fell at home to the Kings, 3-1. Wednesday, it was back into the win column w/ a 3-2 win over Ottawa. Tonight's opponent (San Jose) had been playing well. The keyword there though is "had." Last night, they were torched in Nashville, giving up seven goals in an ugly loss (I had the Preds!). Prior to last night's 7-1 loss, the Sharks had won B2B games as well as five of their last six. Tonight marks their third road game in four nights, which is obviously not a great spot. I'm a little bit concerned over the goaltending right now. Aaron Dell's struggles continued last night as despite making 39 saves, he was responsible for all seven goals allowed. Martin Jones figures to be an obvious choice to start tonight, but I don't see him being able to maintain his save percentage (.947!) from the last four starts either. The Sharks obviously gave up a lot of shots last night (46) and figure to be under siege again here as the Blackhawks average a strong number of shots per game here at the United Center (36.1). Chicago has its own issues between the pipes right now, namely the ongoing injury situation w/ Corey Crawford, whose absence has coincided w/ the team's tailspin. This is the first game of a back to back for the 'Hawks and HC Joel Quenneville has said he'll be using both Anton Forsberg and Jean-Francois Berube. Truthfully, neither is a great option right now. Forsberg certainly is the more experienced of the two, but the team has gone only 7-15 SU in his 22 starts. Berube has never started, only once coming on in relief and he gave up two goals on 14 shots. San Jose is long overdue to score on the power play as they are 0 for 18 w/ the man advantage the L7 games. This is a team that has the fifth ranked power play in the league this season (22.0%). They'd also scored a total of 12 goals in three games before last night's debacle. 10* Over Sharks/Blackhawks |
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02-22-18 | Sharks v. Predators -161 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* Nashville (8:05 ET): I'm not sure which team is going to end up winning the Central, but the "smart money" is probably on either Nashville or Winnipeg. The Predators are currently ahead (by only two points) as they've won B2B games. Them being in first place is also owed to the fact they're the one team in the division w/ a decent road record (only 7 regulation losses). Tonight, the Preds are at home though, hosting San Jose. For the Sharks, winning a division is probably out of the question as they trail Vegas by 10 points in the Pacific. Still, finishing second would be huge as that means they could have home ice advantage in a 1st round playoff series (likely against Anaheim or LA). So a lot is on the line here tonight. The Sharks have won three straight, beating Vancouver, Dallas and St. Louis. That last one came on the road as all five goals were scored in the second period (was a 3-2 final). This is going to be a tough road trip though as not only do the Sharks have to play here, but they're in Chicago tomorrow night, then Minnesota on Sunday. It is interesting that San Jose's only loss in the L6 games came at home to lowly Arizona. But they've had little luck here in Music City in the past, losing 9 of the last 10 visits. Despite being a solid team most of this season, the Sharks have only one win streak of more than three games and that took place all the way back in late October/early November. Since then, they're 0-3 SU when on a 3-game win streak, getting outscored 16-5 in those games. Nashville should have a rested Pekka Rinne in goal for this one as he sat out Tuesday's 3-2 win at Detroit. Juuse Suaros turned in a solid effort in his place, stopping 34 shots there. Rinne is 30-9-4 SU on the season w/ a 2.35 GAA and .926 save percentage. That latter number is top five in the league. The Preds are 20-7-3 SU at home this year and no slouch offensively as they average 3.5 goals per game here. They'll be tested here, but they're also the better team playing on home ice and have their #1 goalie rested and ready to go. I see the Predators holding serve in this key Western Conference battle. 8* Nashville |
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02-22-18 | Blue Jackets v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jackets/Flyers (7:05 ET): This is a rematch from last week when Philly went into Columbus and won in overtime, by a score of 2-1. That served as a continuation of a trend (that's since held) which has the two teams heading in very opposite directions. In the midst of the muddled Metropolitan Division, the Flyers are strengthening their position of late by winning 7 of 8. I had them Tuesday as they again won in overtime, this time 3-2 over Montreal. They're also now 23-8-3 since December 4th and haven't lost a game in regulation since the 1st of the month at New Jersey. The Flyers' 72 pts have them sitting in a nice spot (third in the division) while the Blue Jackets have dropped 8 of 11 (3-6-2) and are in 5th in the Metro. But a gap is forming between the top four and the bottom four in the division. Expect a higher scoring game this time around. Last week's 2-1 win in Columbus saw the Flyers give up 36 shots, so they were a bit lucky to win there. They've now gone into extra time six of the last nine games. Their number of "loser points" (OT/SO losses) are tied for second most in the league w/ 10, so this is a team that's gone beyond regulation often. Recently though, they've been coming out ahead more often than not. However, there are two concerns I have moving forward. One is the penalty killing. The Flyers have gotten away w/ having zero players in the box the L3 games. They are only 28th on the PK (75.0%), so if/when they do take a penalty (tonight?), look for them to potentially give up a goal there. Also, there's the goaltending situation. Petr Mrazek was brought over from Detroit, almost out of necessity, and likely makes his 1st start here tonight. The team's top two goalies - Brian Elliott and Michael Neuvirth - are both on IR. Expected regression from the PK unit (simply by being out there!) and question marks between the pipes should be conducive to more Overs. At the least the Flyers are sixth on the power play, while Columbus is 27th on the PK. So, Philly has that going for itself. With two teams so bad down a man, I expect multiple PP goals in this one. I also should mention that the Flyers have scored 4+ goals in five of the last seven contests. Meanwhile, Columbus is due to start scoring more given the number of shots the L6 games. Ironically, they beat Montreal Tuesday (2-1) despite only 19 shots on goal. But in the five games prior, they got off 50, 51, 57, 36 and 37 shots. That's a ton! The Blue Jackets are also 6-2 Over when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Over Flyers/Blue Jackets |
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02-21-18 | Flames v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 115 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Over Flames/Golden Knights (10:35 ET): Vegas suffered a RARE home defeat on Monday, and a shutout at that, losing 2-0 to Anaheim. Not to worry though, the Pacific Division leaders still own a 22-5-2 won-loss record in Sin City where they average a very healthy 3.6 goals per game. Only three teams in the league score more at home, and one of them (Winnipeg) was part of a successful Over play I had last night (the Jets lost to the Kings 4-3). I also won an Over play w/ the Golden Knights their game before the Anaheim loss, that being a 6-3 win over Montreal. A bounce back offensively has to be expected here, but at the same time I question the goaltending (of Vegas). Take the Over. As you know, eight teams make the playoffs in each conference. The top three in the two divisions (per conference) are guaranteed six of those spots and then there are two Wild Cards, which can come from either division. Taking inventory right now, I see seven playoff probables in the Western Conference: Nashville, Winnipeg, Dallas, St. Louis, Vegas, San Jose and Los Angeles. Calgary is one of three teams I see as an option for the second of the two WC spots, along w/ Minnesota and Anaheim. Currently, the Flames are two points behind those two, so you can see just how important a win would be here. Easier said than done, but they are in the top 10 in goals per game scored on the road this season. Like the Golden Knights, the Flames are off a low-scoring loss, theirs coming at home to Boston by a 2-1 count (game went to overtime). But this was on the heels of three straight Overs w/ them scoring seven times in the two games prior. All three games saw at least seven total goals scored. This has actually been a better team on the road this year (17-7-5). A concern I do have w/ Calgary here though is David Rittich starting between the pipes. His last four starts have brought a save percentage of .890. Vegas remains non-committal between the pipes, but I've long been suspicious of their success in that area. They are 5-1 Over this season though after being held to 1 or 0 goals the previous game. Five of the last six games have seen the Knights finish w/ 33+ shots on goal. 8* Over Flames/Golden Knights |
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02-20-18 | Kings v. Jets -165 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
10* Over Kings/Jets (8:05 ET): The Kings failed to deliver me an Over bet last night, but I'm sure that was the last thing on their mind as they beat the Blackhawks 3-1. That much needed win pulled them into a fourth place tie w/ Calgary in the Pacific as well as kept them on pace in the playoff hunt. There's two ways the Kings can get into the playoffs. Finishing in the top three in the division would guarantee them a spot (they're currently two points back of Anaheim) or there's the Wild Card (they're currently two points back of Minnesota). They have a better goal differential than both of those teams, not to mention all but three teams in the entire Western Conference. Problem is, they'll be facing one of those three tonight, on the road no less. Winnipeg is not an easy place to win at. The Jets have the league's best home record (23-5-2) and have won three in a row here, all in dominant fashion. They've outscored Washington, Colorado and Florida by a combined score 17-6 over the last week and it's certainly important to note that this will be their sixth straight home game overall while LA is playing its seventh straight on the road. This is the last game of the respective homestand/road trip for each. So it's easy to see why the Jets come in as such prohibitive favorites. But the price does seem a bit inflated, so I won't be taking them either. Rather, it's back to Over w/ the Kings tonight. Typically a "third period team," the Kings scored all three of their goals last night in the first two periods and held on for a 3-1 victory. They now rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed per game (2.5) and have the third best penalty killing unit (83.5%). But here they'll be facing a team that is not only #3 in goals scored per game overall (3.3), but also first at home (3.83 gpg). We've seen what they can do the L3 games. The Kings have been giving up more shots than usual lately and Jonathan Quick has been a bit inconsistent this month. On the flip side, the Kings have scored at least three goals in seven of their last eight games. They had 39 shots on goal in a 2-1 home loss to the Jets back in November. Were they to get off a similar number tonight, I suspect we'd see a lot more goals scored. 10* Over Kings/Jets |
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02-20-18 | Canadiens v. Flyers -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Stop me if you've heard this before ... the Metropolitan Division is logjammed and every game matters. It's a virtual lock that five teams from the Metro will make the playoffs, but outside of Washington and Pittsburgh, it's unclear just who will comprise the quintet. All eight teams in the division are definitely alive, but we're starting to (finally) just now see some separation. The Flyers are one of two teams (also the Devils) that happen to be closing in on the top two (Caps and Pens) in the division. Remember finishing third is huge as it guarantees a playoff berth. The Flyers enter today tied w/ the Devils for third at 70 points each. Tonight, they face a team trending in the opposite direction. That would be Montreal, losers of five in a row. The Habs are in a terrible spot here as they just played three straight out West (Colorado, Arizona, Vegas) in a four-day span. I had the Over in their 6-3 loss to Vegas. Antti Niemi got the start between the pipes and was a disaster, giving up three goals on the first six shots. He was quickly replaced by Carey Price, but as I've discussed previously the former Vezina winner is not having himself a good season either. Price's save percentage his L4 games is a hideous .870 and for the year, he's below .900 on the road. Throw in the fact that Montreal also ranks 29th in goals scored per game and there's just not a lot to like about this club right now. It's easy to see why they are one of the worst in the Eastern Conference. This will be the Habs' second visit to the City of Brotherly Love this month. The five-game losing streak started here on Feb 8th w/ a 5-3 setback. I'm not sure there's a case to be made as to why tonight will turn out any differently. The Flyers have won seven of eight, a streak which got going w/ the return of goaltender Brian Elliott, but has continued despite uncertainly between the pipes. Elliott is injured again as is backup Michael Neuvirth (questionable for tonight). But Alex Lyon certainly got all the help he needed Sunday afternoon when the team scored seven goals in a rout of the Rangers at MSG. That marked the fifth time in the last six games that the Flyers scored at least four goals. The team did just acquire Petr Mrazek in a deadline deal w/ Detroit. But the bottom line is that this team is 22-8-3 since 12.4 w/ no regulation losses the L8 games. It's a terrible spot for Montreal, who has already lost all four visits here the last three seasons. 8* Philadelphia |
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02-19-18 | Kings v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Over Kings/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Back in 2014, the Kings and Blackhawks met in the Western Conference Finals w/ the former advancing in a seven game series. Fast forward four years to the present and both are now struggling just to make the playoffs. I was on the Kings Saturday as they picked up what I called in my analysis a "must win" at Buffalo (won 4-2). However, they are still two points back of the final spot in the Western Conference playoff picture and have two more games to go on this seven-game road trip. Things are looking far more dire in the Windy City though. Chicago is in last place in the Central Division and just picked up its first win of February on Saturday (albeit in very impressive fashion). It had been eight straight defeats for the Blakhawks before the beat Washington 7-1 here on Saturday. Few could have seen that coming considering how the club had been playing previously. Looking at the gap they face to make the playoffs and how many teams they have to jump, I think we're looking at the first non-playoff year in Chicago since 2007-08. However, there's no denying that you have to like what you saw from the offense against the Capitals. Seven different players scored and they got off 44 shots on goal. Getting off shots has not been an issue for the Blackhawks, even during the losing streak. Three times in the last five games, they've had exactly 44 shots on goal. They've averaged 40.2 per game overall during that span. The Kings generally win w/ defense as they are #2 in the league in goals allowed and have the third best penalty killing unit. However, they've also scored three or more goals in six of the last seven games. Based on the number of goals vs. shots we've seen recently, they too are due for an increase in scoring moving forward. At the same time, they're also allowing more shots per game than we're used to seeing. They've allowed 35 or more shots in four of the last five games and Jonathan Quick has been a little bit suspect in goal lately. Of course, Chicago has bigger goaltending issues w/ Corey Crawford still out. Anton Forsberg is your likely starter here and he's got an .894 save percentage his L4 starts. 10* Over Kings/Blackhawks |
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02-18-18 | Oilers v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
8* Over Oilers/Avalanche (3:05 ET): Look for the scoreboard to be plenty busy in this Western Conference matchup Sunday. Few, if any, could have predicted that Colorado would have more points than Edmonton at this point in the season. But the former has certainly been one of the more "pleasant" surprises of this NHL season, going from worst team in the league (by a mile) last year to potential playoff entrant. Edmonton, on the other hand, is arguably this year's biggest disappointment. The fanbase believe the team was ready to challenge for a Stanley Cup, but instead they won't even be making the playoffs. The disappointment continued for the Oilers yday as they were shutout in Arizona, 1-0. That's the worst team in the league they were shutout by, mind you. It's not like Edmonton didn't have its fair share of chances though; they had 40 shots on goal for the game. It had to very disappointing to lose in that fashion considering the previous three games (all losses) saw the Oilers allow a total of 17 goals. The team has now dropped six in a row and ranks 29th in the league in goals allowed. Their special teams are absolutely horrific as they rank dead last on the power play and in penalty killing. In the first five games of the current losing streak, they allowed three or more goals every time. That doesn't even include a 4-3 home loss to Colorado on Feb 1, an easy Over. Colorado didn't fare well its last time out either as they lost 6-1 at Winnipeg. It was their second 6-1 loss in the last five games as the Blues got them by that same score back on Feb 8th. Goal scoring has become an issue recently for the Avs as they've been held to two or fewer in four of the previous five games. But this matchup should change that. Leading scorer Nathan MacKinnon is back and the team's offensive dip can directly be tied to his absence. MacKinnon was 2nd in the league in goals scored when he injured his left shoulder Jan 30th in Vancouver. The Avs have won 10 in a row on home ice w/ the last loss here at the Pepsi Center coming all the way back on December 27th! They've scored a total of 38 goals in those 10 wins. Both teams' goaltending situations are suspect here. Edmonton may have to turn to Laurent Brossoit as Cam Talbot was between the pipes last night and regular backup Al Montoya took a puck to the face in practice Friday. Brossoit has an .886 save percentage for the year. Colorado's Semyon Varlamov is coming off a 44-save shutout Wednesday vs. Montreal, but shouldn't be expected to repeat that kind of performance. 8* Over Oilers/Avalanche |
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02-17-18 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Canadiens/Golden Knights (7:05 ET): What's going on in Vegas has certainly been the story of this NHL season as the expansion Golden Knights continye to lead the Pacific Division (80 pts) and would be the top seed in the Western Conference were the playoffs to begin today. They say "what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas," but in the case of the hockey team, they've traveled relatively well this season, even though the road record (17-11-2) is nowhere near as good as their home record (21-4-2). Tonight, the Knights are again on home ice where they've scored nine goals the last two games in beating Edmonton and Chicago. There's no reason to believe they won't win again here, but the asking price (money line) is astronomical, so I'll be staying away from that. Montreal was a division winner itself last season, taking the Atlantic w/ 103 points. But they were ousted in the 1st rd of the playoffs (six games) by the Rangers and there has been a carryover to this year as the Habs have been one of the league's biggest disappointments. They currently are in sixth in the Atlantic and well off the playoff pace. A big reason for the dropoff has been the decline of Carey Price, who carried the club last season from between the pipes. We've seen this before w/ Price and the Canadiens. In 2014-15, he won the Vezina, leading to a division title. The following season he suffered a knee injury and played in only 12 games. The result was a 28-point decline and the team missing the playoffs. With Price healthy, the Habs predictably bounce back and won the division again last season. But now the regression bug has bit them yet again. Unlike the injury plagued season of two years ago, this season Price simply hasn't been very good. His overall save percentage is barely above .900 and in his last start, he allowed five goals on just 21 shots - to the Coyotes! It was Price's eighth consecutive loss on the road. Now we do have to be concerned w/ a Montreal offense which ranks 29th in goals per game and has scored 1 or 0 goals in 8 of the last 11 games. But Vegas can clearly do the heavy lifting here as they average 3.6 goals per game at home. They are 2nd overall in goals per game and the Over is 8-2 at home this season when the total is 5.5. 10* Over Canadiens/Golden Knights |
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02-17-18 | Kings -140 v. Sabres | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
8* Los Angeles (1:05 ET): The Kings HAVE to have this one as they've not only lost three in a row (all on the road), but the losing streak now has them on the "outside looking in" when it comes to playoff picture in the Western Conference. They are currently fifth in the Pacific Division despite having a YTD goal differential (+20) better than every team besides 1st place Vegas. To me, this is a playoff team, but they're three points back of where they need to be. The current road trip (seven games) won't get any easier after this as they travel to Chicago (struggling I know, but always a tough place to play) and Winnipeg. So a visit to last place Buffalo becomes the very definition of a "must-win" to me. I think they get it done. The Sabres had actually won three of four prior to losing in overtime to Ottawa Thursday night. Twice the Sabres had a one-goal lead in the third period and both times (obviously) they gave it away. Perhaps the Senators' comeback was inevitable considering they outshot the Sabres 22-12 in the first two periods and 36-22 for the game. It should be noted that Buffalo did recently beat both Tampa Bay and Boston, who are arguably the two top teams in the league right now. But that success simply isn't likely to last. They did win their final three games before the All-Star Break, but other than that you'd have to go all the way back to October to find the only other time all season that they even won three times in a six-game stretch. What makes this such an ideal matchup for the Kings is that Buffalo ranks dead last in the league in goals per game. Now having the fewest number of points and worst goal differential in the Eastern Conference makes them an ideal opponent for pretty much anyone. But especially for the Kings, who rank 2nd in the league in goals allowed. They are also 5th best in penalty killing. I suspect that following an admittedly "rough patch," goalie Jonathan Quick is going to turn things around. Also, Ottawa may have dealt Buffalo another blow in addition to the result Thursday night. The Senators and Kings made a trade at the deadline w/ defenseman Dion Phaneuf coming to the City of Angels. Phaneuf's impact was immediately felt vs. Pittsburgh (scored team's lone goal) and that should carry over to today. 8* Los Angeles |
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02-16-18 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -165 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
8* Carolina (7:35 ET): I'll continue to ride this "Carolina train" as there's that one key metric which indicates this team is more than capable of making a strong second half run. The metric I speak of is shot differential as the 'Canes are tops in the league in this department at +5.1 per game. No other team is higher than +3.3 and only nine others are above +2. Why I believe this metric to be key is pretty simple. When you're consistently outshooting your opponent, theoretically, you should be outscoring them as well. That scenario certainly didn't play out last night in a 5-2 loss to the Devils, whom they outshot 29-22. But the three previous games (all wins), it did and those were all home games. Carolina is back on home ice tonight and I'll take them. Speaking of statistics, the team that the Hurricanes will face tonight has one of the more interesting "splits" in the entire league. No one denies the Islanders' ability to score goals as they average 3.3 per game (4th most), but they are also dead last in the league in goals allowed at 3.6 per game. Giving up the most goals in the league isn't exactly conducive to making the postseason. I feel like I've "beaten a dead horse" when it comes to how tight a race it is in the Metropolitan Division right now. Five of the eight times will likely make the playoffs, but beyond Washington and Pittsburgh, it's anyone's guess as to who the other three will be. When you start breaking down individual teams' resumes, it becomes apparent that there's a case to be made for upward trajectory for the Canes, while the opposite is true for the Isles. I was on Carolina last Friday and Saturday as they beat Colorado and Vancouver here at home. They added another win Tuesday, blowing out the Kings 7-3. Last night, goaltending was the issue w/ Scott Darling allowing five goals on just 22 shots. Thankfully, it will be Cam Ward between the pipes tonight. Ward has been the much better of the two Carolina goalies this season and has a .922 save percentage his L4 starts. I should probably mention that the Islanders also played last night and it was a RARE shutout victory for them, 3-0 over the Rangers. It was their 1st shutout win of the season! However, that shutout came in spite of FIFTY shots allowed! What could Jaroslav Halak possibly have left in the tank should he go again tonight? Backup Thomas Greiss has an .885 save percentage for the year. Prior to winning last night, the Isles had lost six of eight. 8* Carolina |
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02-15-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Red Wings/Lightning (7:35 ET): The asking price is borderline astronomical here, as it should be, considering the league-best Lightning are returning home off rare B2B losses (both on the road). But I won't be laying the juice even though I have little to no belief in the visiting Red Wings, who have lost 10 straight regular season meetings to Tampa Bay (and 14 of the past 15 overall, including one playoff series, in 2016). Instead, I believe the better bet to be to follow another streak, that being one that has seen the Lightning go Over the total in seven consecutive games (all w/ at least six total goals scored). TB not only leads the league in goal scoring, they have five individual players w/ at least 19 goals. Take the Over. Goal scoring wasn't the problem on the just completed 0-2 road trip. Rather, TB gave up nine goals themselves. Now, a 4-3 loss to Toronto was certainly excusable, given the Maple Leafs are a good team. But losing the next night in Buffalo was far less "forgivable," even if they were w/o rest. The Sabres rank 30th in the league in goals per game yet hit up the Lightning for five, matching their season-high. That wasn't the first time the Lightning surrendered that many goals to a "bad team" this month either. Earlier, they'd allowed six in a loss to Edmonton. Should we be concerned about goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose save percentage in his L4 starts is .896 (Over is 4-0). For the season, the Over is 15-7 when Vasilevskiy starts at home. One thing we need not be concerned over is the Lightning offense, which not only leads the league in scoring, but also averages 3.8 goals per game on home ice. Detroit's last two road games have seen them surrendered a total of 11 goals (that number sound familiar?) and Tuesday's 2-1 win over Anaheim (at home) marked the first time in the L5 games that they allowed fewer than three. Likely to start between the pipes here is Jimmy Howard and his save percentage his L4 starts is .890. The Over is 3-1 for the Red Wings this season, in road games, if the total is 6.0. At home for the Lightning, the Over is 8-5 w/ a total of 6.0. So no need to worry about the high O/U line tonight. Something else to consider is that Tampa Bay has allowed 10 PP goals in its last 10 games. 10* Over Red Wings/Lightning |
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02-15-18 | Kings v. Penguins -177 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Things were looking quite shaky for the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. Coming into the New Year, they'd lost more games than they'd won (19-18-3). But over the last month, they've certainly turned things around, going 13-4-1 the L18 games. They're now in second place in the crowded Metro w/ 68 pts and look like a safe playoff bet. The offense has certainly regained its "lost" form, scoring 4+ goals in six of the last eight games (all wins). But even w/ the recent surge, the Pens can't afford to let their guard down. Not w/ the other six teams (save for 1st place Washington) in the division currently within nine points of them. Fortunate for them is tonight they'll be facing a team that just gave up seven goals in its previous game. Out West, the Kings are similarly fighting for their playoff lives. The difference between them and the Pens is that LA finds itself currently on the "outside logging in." Considering the logjam that exists for the two Wild Card spots, finishing in the top three in the Pacific would certainly be in the Kings' best interest. Right now, they are one point behind Calgary for that coveted third place position. So this game definitely means a lot to them as well. Only problem is they arrive in the Steel City in poor form. I alluded to them giving up seven goals in the previous game; that was against a Carolina team hardly known for goal scoring. Even worse is that it was Jonathan Quick starting in goal for them that game. (He was chased after allowing four goals on 20 shots). Quick's save percentage his L4 starts is now .894, a troubling sign considering the team just allowed 41 shots to the Hurricanes. While this is an interesting battle of the league's top power play against one of the top penalty killing units, home ice provides a distinct advantage here for the Penguins. They have won nine in a row here at PPG Paints Arena, outscoring the opposition 47-25. That's an average of more than five goals per game! The Kings have allowed 11 goals the L2 games and this is their 4th straight on the road of what will be a seven-game trip. They are only 7-17 SU when facing teams w/ a winning record this year and that includes a 3-1 loss (at home) to Pittsburgh last month. 8* Pittsburgh |
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02-14-18 | Panthers v. Canucks -110 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): You won't find the Canucks favored on the money line all that often, especially w/ the backing of what appears to be "sharp money." But such is the case Wednesday as they welcome Florida to B.C.. I do believe that this is the longest road trip in the league - for any team - though I suppose the Panthers have the "benefit" of having played in Edmonton Monday night. They won there 7-5, their fifth win in the past six games. However, as you can tell from the score, it was a wild one. The Panthers scored three times on the power play, odd seeing as that group is ranked #22 in the league, and goalie James Reimer wasn't exactly "lights out" in his return from injury. This has been a below average team for much of the season, so I expect them to start regressing soon. As in tonight. Vancouver is also off a high-scoring victory. The difference here through is they didn't give up any goals Sunday in an impressive 6-0 shutout at Dallas. The fact they did that on the road makes the win all the more impressive. Now those six goals are equal to the number they'd scored during the entirety of a four-game losing streak that preceded the win. They too have been below average much of the year, but I suspect Sunday's win is going to give the team some confidence moving forward. The call-up of Reid Boucher is something to monitor as he scored twice against Dallas. When playing w/ exactly two days of rest this season, Vancouver is 6-3 SU. Now these two teams did just meet last week in Miami and it was the Panthers prevailing 3-1. They did so w/ a 40-27 edge in shots, but it was rookie Harri Sateri in goal that night and he's since been displaced by Reimer and the soon to be returning Roberto Luongo. A problem Florida has dealt w/ all season is that they simply give up too many shots on goal. Only the Islanders allow more per game. That will catch up w/ you. Lately, they've kept the number down, but be wary of that 7-5 win they are coming off of as this season has seen them go just 3-9 SU if they won their previous game by two or more goals. 10* Vancouver |
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02-13-18 | Capitals v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Capitals/Jets (8:05 ET): Here's a battle of two of the top teams in the league. Washington leads the Metro w/ 70 points, ironic b/c tonight's opponent Winnipeg is a second place team (in the Central) despite 73 points! This game being in Manitoba is a big edge for the Jets considering a 20-5-2 mark here at Bell MTS Place. However, two of those losses have come in the last week. One was to St. Louis on Friday, then they lost to the Rangers on Sunday. They allowed eight goals in the two losses. This season-long 10-game homestand is quickly winding down and so far they're surprisingly only 3-3. So I'm not about to endorse them here in this spot. What I will endorse, however, is the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Washington is also off a loss here as they fell 5-4, in overtime, to Detroit. They've lost three of five. So neither club is exactly in "fine form" coming into tonight. But what we do have here is a matchup of two of the top eight teams in goals per game. The Caps average 3.1 gpg while the Jets average 3.2. Washington has actually scoring plenty of late, despite getting off fewer shots per game. Their last five contests have seen them average only 25 shots per game, but also 3.6 goals. Now imagine if they start getting more chances! Prior to losing to the Red Wings, they beat Columbus 4-2 despite only 17 shots on goal. At the same time though, they've allowed a total of 20 goals the L5 games. Goalie Braden Holtby has struggled on the road all season long w/ an .894 save percentage. I had the Under (a 10* winner!) in Winnipeg's last game, that being the 3-1 loss to the Rangers. However, the fact remains this team averages 3.7 goals per game at home, tied for the second highest average in the league. They've exceeded that average only once on this current homestand. So, it's only a matter of time before we start to see them find the back of the net w/ great regularity again. As for Washington, they are 14-6 Over in road games when the total is 5.5. They are also 19-9 Over when facing a team w/ a winning record. 10* Over Capitals/Jets |
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02-13-18 | Devils v. Flyers -154 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Stop me when you've heard me say this before - the Metro is the deeper of the two divisions in the Eastern Conference and will send five teams to the playoffs. We just don't know which five. Right now, both Washington and Pittsburgh look like solid bets. But that still leaves six teams and just three spots. Philadelphia is emerging as a possible third "lock," thanks to a four-game win streak that has them w/ 65 points. Behind the Flyers, the other five teams are separated by just three points. New Jersey has fallen "back to the pack" by virtue of a four-game losing streak. So we have two teams trending in very different directions tonight. I'll stick w/ the hot one that's on home ice. Before the current respective streaks began, the Devils beat the Flyers, 4-3, back on Feb 1st. But that was in New Jersey and they were obviously playing much better at the time. The Devils would win their next game as well, 3-1 over Pittsburgh, again at home. But ever since, they've gone into freefall mode, dropping four in a row and giving up 19 goals in the process. That's their most goals allowed during any four game stretch of the season. This is no coincidence as Corey Schneider is out w/ a groin injury. Keith Kinkaid has since spent the majority of time between the pipes and has a poor .874 save percentage his L4 starts. The last time he was in goal, he faced 50 shots in a 6-1 loss at Columbus. While you'd like to think Kinkaid will improve, the truth is his save percentage for the year is only .891 (20 starts). Eddie Lack was no better on Sunday in his 1st start w/ the team, allowing five goals on 27 shots in a home loss to the Bruins. Meanwhile, the Flyers are off a very impressive win as they went to Vegas and came out ahead 4-1. That was only the fourth regulation loss at home for the Golden Knights this season. Going back to December 4th, Philly is now 20-8-2 its L30 games. Interesting is that they too are dealing w/ an injury in goal as Brian Elliott has been out w/ a lower body injury. But the difference between them and the Devils is that backup Michael Neuvirth has been able to come in and get the job done. He stopped 38 of 39 shots in Vegas and it should be noted the Flyers won that game despite just 18 shots on goal. 8* Philadelphia |
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02-12-18 | Blackhawks v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Blackhawks/Coyotes (9:05 ET): Even though Arizona is involved, few could have anticipated this being a "battle of last place teams" on Monday. Perennial power Chicago is struggling as five straight losses have kept them in the Central basement and they're now looking at an eight-point gap between them and the rest of the field. Time really is running out on them to make a push for the playoffs. As for the 'Yotes, the playoffs were never a realistic possibility entering this season as most felt they would be the worst team in the league. They've certainly lived up to advanced billing as their number of points (36) and goal differential (-64) both are league worsts. Something has to give here and I'm not about to lay the price w/ the Blackhawks. That means it's a totals play and I'm looking at the Over. The last five games have seen Chicago "doubled up" in scoring as they've lost by a combined score of 18-9. They were shutout (3-0) at Minnesota on Saturday, despite a massive 44-19 edge in shots. That might be their most frustrating loss of the year. It was only fifth time this season the 'Hawks have been shutout. Goaltending has obviously become an issue here w/ Corey Crawford still out. Jeff Glass could make only 16 saves on Saturdaay and the team has allowed the 6th most goals in the league since the Crawford injury. Though the power play still ranks 29th, I think the offense will be fine. The L3 games have seen Chicago put 36, 39 and 44 shots on goal. They should find the back of the net plenty here facing the 30th ranked team in goals allowed. Now scoring has also been an issue all season long for the Coyotes, who rank dead last in the league in goals per game. But they did score three goals in their last game, a shootout loss to Philadelphia. The shootout went seven rounds and saw them fail to beat a backup goaltender that came in cold during the five minute overtime period. That being said, the 'Yotes have scored a total of 10 goals the last three games and have posted four straight Overs. On the other side of the ledger, they allow 3.5 gpg for the season as none of the four netminders used have been reliable. Over the last five games, the team has allowed 4.2 goals per. That's 21 goals total. 10* Over Blackhawks/Coyotes |
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02-11-18 | Rangers v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
10* Under Rangers/Jets (3:00 ET): A fairly early start time in Manitoba today w/ the Jets hosting the Rangers (did you know: those are two of the six "shared" nicknames, across pro sports?). Winnipeg had been in first place in the Central for awhile, but has dropped to second after taking a tough 5-2 loss here at home on Friday (at the hands of third place St. Louis). Their division figures to be a dogfight the rest of the way w/ the top four now separated by all of five points. The Rangers also find themselves in a dogfight, but they're just trying to get into the playoff picture. A recent brutal stretch (lost 7 of 9) has them in last in the equally tough Metro as they're 4 pts back of the final playoff spot. In what I think will "feel" like a playoff game, I'm taking the under this afternoon. Winnipeg has been a GREAT team for much of the year. There was the loss Friday, but prior to that they'd gone 20-3-2 here at Bell MTS Place. What's interesting to note though is there number of shots forced/allowed don't necessarily change here, compared to the overall landscape. But scoring does, in positive directions, both when it comes to goals scored and allowed. The Jets average 3.8 goals per game here while allowing only 2.4. Connor Hellebuyck has started virtually every home game this year (save for three) and has a .928 save percentage here. It was a clear "off night" vs. the Blues Friday as he gave up four goals on just 26 shots (StL also added an empty-netter). But I would naturally expect a bounce-back today. Before scoring four goals in their last game, the Rangers had scored just four times total in their previous four contests. As a matter of fact, opposing goalies have posted a .942 save percentage against the Rangers the L5 games. Friday, it appeared as if the Blueshirts were headed for another defeat, but they scored twice in the third period including once on the power play. Note there were a total of three PP goals scored in that game between the two sides. It's not as if the Rangers have an exceptionally good power play (rank 15th). At the same time, Henrik Lundqvist has to start playing better, right? He has a .920 save percentage on the road this season, which I'll lean on more than his .894 save percentage the L4 games overall. 10* Under Rangers/Jets |
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02-10-18 | Avalanche v. Hurricanes -148 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
8* Carolina (8:05 ET): The Hurricanes came through for me last night and I'll go w/ them again here, even in the second night of a back to back. Both games at home obviously makes this a slightly more favorable situation as do the opponents. Last night was a visit from lowly Vancouver, who put up little fight in a 4-1 final. It was a 3-0 game at the end of the 1st period and the 'Canes limited their opponent to just 22 shots for the game. Tonight, they face a Colorado club that was the league's worst last season, only to have a surprising resurgence in 2017-18. But the Avs are starting to show signs of regression, namely a 6-1 loss at St. Louis Thursday, which was their fifth loss in the last seven games. The large edge in shots on goal last night is nothing new for Carolina. I wrote about this in yday's analysis, but will reiterate that they lead the league in shot per game differential, which I believe to be a key metric. That league-leading number is now +4.9 per game. The next best team is Pittsburgh (+3.6) and only six other teams are +2.0 or better. It's been shaky goaltending that has betrayed this team this season (also wrote about this in yday's analysis), but last night saw HC Bill Peters "roll the dice" w/ backup Scott Darling and it paid off. Now, the team is likely to go w/ #1 goalie Cam Ward, who has a .947 save percentage his L4 starts. This is the second-to-last game of a season-high eight-game homestand for the 'Canes and somewhat of a "must win" considering their current position in the Eastern Conference (one point back of 2nd Wild Card) and the fact they lost the first five games of the homestand. Colorado has not been able to muster much offense recently, which probably can be tied to the loss of center Nathan MacKinnon. The Avs are a pretty banged up team right now. They too are sitting just one win outside the playoff picture in the Western Conference. The road has not always been kind to the Avs this year as they are 10-13-3 overall and have just one regulation win since 1.14. They allow 3.4 goals per game away from home. Now let's talk about the first meeting of the year between these teams, which somehow Carolina lost 5-3 despite a 60-27 (!) edge in shots on goal. That is not a misprint. 'Canes get their revenge. 8* Carolina |
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02-09-18 | Kings v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Panthers (7:35 ET): In each of the Kings' last three games, either they or the opponent has scored five or more goals. Interesting though is the fact that two of those games were also shutouts, one in their favor (6-0 over Arizona) and one not (5-0 loss at Nashville). Wednesday's win over Edmonton made it 11 goals for LA alone in the L2 games, but prior to that six of their last eight games had stayed Under the total. Tonight, they embark on a critical seven-game road trip w/ the majority of games taking place out East. There's plenty to like about this team moving forward (#2 in goals allowed/#1 in penalty killing) and they seem to have "righted the ship" (won 5 of 7) after a January swoon. However, they are facing a pretty hot team in its own right. Give me the Under in this non-conference matchup.  The Panthers have won four in a row, giving up only six goals in the process. They are riding the very unlikely success story of Harri Sateri, a 28-year old rookie, in goal. Sateri has posted a stunning .950 save percentage while starting every game during the team's active win streak. Tuesday vs. Vancouver, he stopped 26 of 27 shots. Having had the last two days off is nice because right now Sateri is basically the team's lone option between the pipes as Roberto Luongo is still injured and James Reimer is just getting cleared Friday. Since Jan 21st, Sateri has the second most saves of any goaltender in the league. However, something he and the rest of the Panthers will have to deal w/ here is the Kings are a team that likes to dominate possession of the puck. Of course, all teams "like" to dominate possession; the Kings just happen to do it better than most. Thus, I see Florida's streak of scoring three or more goals being snapped here at four games. It's not like the Panthers are a dominant offensive team. For the season, they rank only 19th in goals per game. The Kings aren't much better at 17th. Something else to like here, as it pertains to the Under, is that we're going to get Jonathan Quick in goal for LA. Quick, who has not played the L2 games, had actually struggled of late. But following some time off, I expect him to regain previous form. His save percentage against Eastern Conference teams this year is .931. 10* Under Kings/Panthers |
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02-09-18 | Canucks v. Hurricanes -175 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
8* Carolina (7:35 ET): Given the current "lay of the land" in the Eastern Conference, this is a virtual "must win" for the Hurricanes, who are only one point back of the final Wild Card spot. Five teams from the Metro figure to make the playoffs (top three are guaranteed), but w/ all eight teams more than alive, losing streaks need to be avoided. The 'Canes come into Friday having dropped three in a row. Fortunately for them, two other teams in the division (Blue Jackets, Islanders) have lost four in a row. A visit from lowly Vancouver should cure what ails the 'Canes as the Canucks have also lost three straight, but the difference here is that the visitors have been "down for the count" this entire season. Give me the home team. There is at least one key metric that suggests Carolina could make a late season run. They continue to post the league's best shot per game differential at +4.8. The next closest team is Pittsburgh (+3.6) and there are only four others above +2.0. Ironically enough, they did NOT outshoot their previous opponent, that being Philadelphia, who beat them 2-1 in overtime on Tuesday. But that brings up an issue the Hurricanes have had all season and that's losing in extra time. Their nine OT/shootout losses are tied for second most in the league. Turn some of those into wins and all of a sudden this is probably a playoff team, easy. Something else to consider is the goaltending. Hurricanes' goalies have combined for an .898 save percentage, which is 4th lowest in the league. Vancouver isn't much better though and I'm hoping a visit from the 26th ranked team in goals per game scored would also be a welcome reprieve. Vancouver had to play last night, and lost, 5-2 in Tampa Bay. So in addition to being a lousy team, the situation tonight is not great. Anders Nilsson started in goal last night, so that likely means it will be Jacob Markstrom tonight. Carolina is due for an offensive breakout after being held to two goals or fewer each of the L5 games. During that time, opposing goaltenders have posted a somewhat ridiculous .957 save percentage against them. It's especially ridiculous when you consider all five games have been played here in Raleigh! For the season, Markstrom's save percentage is only .908. 8* Carolina |
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02-08-18 | Islanders -113 v. Sabres | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Playing against lowly Buffalo at home will generally give you a decent price and that's the case here w/ the Islanders, who are in desperate need of two points considering the current lay of the land in the Metro. As we've been saying for month now, the Metro is more than likely to send five teams to the playoffs this season due to getting both Wild Cards. Entering play today, the Islanders are tied w/ Columbus for the final WC spot at 58 pts. A win here could move them into the top WC spot, depending on what happens w/ Philadelphia. Buffalo is one of the few teams in the Eastern Conference where the playoffs aren't a realistic possibility. They are last in points, goal differential and have lost four in a row. Playing against them at this price seems like a "no brainer."Â The Islanders have won only three times in the last nine games. They've now had two days off since losing to Nashville, 5-4, in overtime. Though they were outshot pretty severely (47-28!), the Isles were in position to win the game w/ a minute to go in regulation. That kind of high score has become all too common for the Isles as they are 3rd in the league in goals per game, but dead last (31st) in goals allowed. Fortunately for them, tonight presents an ideal matchup. The Sabres also rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed per game (28th), but are also dead last in scoring themselves. Simply put, this is a game where the Isles' offense can carry them. New York has scored four times in B2B games. As for Buffalo, they have scored just six goals total during a four-game losing streak. After being shutout by St. Louis, 1-0 on Saturday, they lost 4-3 here at home to Anaheim on Tuesday. Three goals is more than what we usually see from this team and home ice advantage has been virtually non-existent. Not only are the Sabres just 6-15-4 at the KeyBank Center; they're being outscored here by an average of 1.2 goals per game! The entirety of the current four-game losing streak has come here at home. They did at least earn a "losers point" (lost in OT) vs. the Ducks, but it was also the 1st time on this homestand they scored more than two goals. This should be a rewarding trip upstate for the Islanders, who are 8-4 SU this season when playing w/ two days recent. They're also 2-0 YTD vs. the Sabres. 10* NY Islanders |
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02-07-18 | Bruins v. Rangers +110 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
9* NY Rangers (8:05 ET): For most of this season, Tampa Bay has been considered the top team. Vegas has clearly been the best "story." But Boston is also making a case that it too deserves to be mentioned among the NHL's elite. Only three teams (TB, Vegas, Winnipeg) have more points and only the Lightning have a better goal differential. The Bruins come into tonight riding a three-game win streak and are 8-1 the last nine games. All eight wins have come in regulation w/ the lone setback coming in the first game back after the All-Star Break. Many of the wins, including last night (3-2 at Detroit) have come on the road. But very few of those have been against quality opponents. The Rangers have been trending in the exact opposite direction of the Bruins. They've lost three straight as well as six of their last seven. As a result, they have fallen to the bottom of the Metro. But all hope is not lost here in MSG. The Blueshirts might be in last in their division, but they are only three points out of the final playoff spot. The Metropolitan has been uber tough this season and we've seen teams rise and fall all season long. Also, only one of those six losses has come at home where the Rangers are still 17-9-3 for the year. Tonight marks a great "buy low" opportunity, in my opinion.  I can't imagine the recent play of veteran Henrik Lundqvist isn't going to improve - drastically - moving forward. The longtime Rangers' netminder has an .852 save percentage his L4 starts. Henrik the Great is 27-12-2 all-time in 41 career starts vs. Boston and the Rangers have won seven of the last eight head to head meetings overall (including all four here in MSG). This being the second night of a back to back for the Bruins gives the Rangers a huge break as they are likely to avoid Tuukka Rask, who has a .944 save percentage in his L4 outings. Boston is only 3-5 SU in the second game of a back to back to begin with, so it's a spot where they usually struggle. Interestingly enough, they have NOT had to play on consecutive days at any point during the current 8-1 surge. Meanwhile, over the last three seasons, the Rangers are 10-2 SU when coming into a game on a losing streak of three or more games. 9* NY Rangers |
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02-06-18 | Wild v. Blues -140 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:05 ET): This is a key game in the Central, which is shaping up to be the tighest divisional race in the sport. Every team can claim a positive goal differential and the two points available here have become all the more critical considering both Nashville and Dallas won last night. St. Louis currently sits in the "coveted" third position, four points back of co-leaders Winnipeg and Nashville. While it's likely that the Central will send at least four teams to the playoffs, the Blues are only one point ahead of the Stars. After that, it's Minnesota, who as of right now would be the final Wild Card entrant in the Western Conference (61 points). The problem here for the Wild though is that this is a road game (and we saw what happened in their last one). Everything you could say about the importance of this game to the Wild would have applied to their last one as well. They were in Dallas Saturday and lost 6-1. While a very good team on home ice (18-4-4 record), the Wild are just 10-15-1 SU on the road. That's obviously a big disparity. The big key is the level of play between the pipes. Devan Dubnyk, the team's #1 goalie who will likely start tonight, sees his save percentage dip down to .898 away from home. He had to come in relief Saturday, but still allowed two goals on the nine shots he faced. Minnesota is allowing slightly more shots per game on the road compared to at home, but that still can't fully "explain away" the fact they are also allowing 3.7 goals per game on the road compared to 2.08 at home (which is the LOWEST average in the league!). Conversely, the number of gpg they allow on the road is the second HIGHEST in the league! So, is this one as easy as chalking things up to a home ice advantage for the Blues. Probably, yes. There's also the goaltending as well. St. Louis ranks third in the league in number of goals allowed per game and has given up one or fewer in four of its last five games overall. Sure, they've scored only one goal in B2B games themselves (did shutout Buffalo on Saturday). But I fully anticipate the offense "picking up" here. Either option in goal - Jake Allen or Carter Hutton - would be fine. Then there is the matter of St. Lous having Minnesota's number. They eliminated them from the playoffs (in 5 games) LY and have picked up at least a point in 18 of the previous 20 meetings. 8* St. Louis |
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02-05-18 | Lightning -130 v. Oilers | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Lightning/Oilers (9:05 ET): If this seems like a bit of "deja vu," well, I did just cash an Over w/ the Lightning involved Saturday night as they defeated Vancouver by a score of 4-2. The goal which put the game Over came late in the third period via the power play. However, that close call aside, it cannot be discounted that TB is the highest scoring team in the league at 3.6 goals per game. They dragged the #25 team in gpg to an Over, thus I believe they'll be able to do the same w/ a more dangerous Oilers club. Edmonton has to be considered the biggest disappointment in the league this season as their fans were thinking about a return to glory and Lord Stanley's Cup. Instead, the team sits well outside the playoff picture w/ only 48 pts. Take the Over. Edmonton may rank only 22nd in scoring, but it's not for a lack of chances as they are tied for third in the league w/ 34.2 shots per game. They've been consistently victimized by some superior goaltending and having to likely face Andrei Vasilevskiy tonight seems like "rubbing it in." Vasilevskiy is making his case to be the Vezina Trophy winner for 2018 as he comes in w/ a .930 save percentage and 2.22 goals against average for the season, both of which are top five. However, his current pace will be awfully difficult to maintain as he's stopped 149 of the last 156 shots he's faced. Edmonton has scored three or more goals in five of its last six games, so do not be surprised if they are able to have some success against Vasilevskiy. Meanwhile, I don't anticipate any issues for the TB offense. As I already stated, they are #1 in the league in scoring. They've tallied four or more goals in four of the last five games and 11 total in the last two. They'll face Cam Talbot, who is coming off arguably the worst month of his career w/ a 3.57 GAA and .890 save percentage. He was out sick for the last game, a 4-3 loss to Colorado, and this is hardly the opponent you want to be facing right now. Each of the Oilers last two games were 4-3 finals as they also beat rival Calgary before the break. This is only their second game since All-Star Weekend, so the offense will be fresh as well. TB is now 16-9 Over after a game in which they scored 4+ goals. 8* Over Lightning/Oilers |
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02-04-18 | Sharks v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
8* Under Sharks/Hurricanes (1:05 ET): San Jose's reputation as one of the league's top Under teams has been well-established by this point. Only their division rival Anaheim is on par w/ their 19-31-1 Under mark right now and that's even after four of the last six games have gone Over. But the last two have both stayed Under. After beating Columbus 3-1 on Friday, the Sharks' trek out East continues this afternoon w/ a visit to Carolina. The Hurricanes are right up there at the top of the league in terms of number of shots per game, however, they are only 24th in goals per game. Given the opposition here, that discrepancy isn't about to start rectifying itself. Each of the 'Canes L3 games have gone Under and so will this one. While San Jose has been traveling, Carolina has gotten to stay in the friendly confines of home as this will be their fourth consecutive game in Raleigh and they've got four more coming after today. Unfortunately though, they've managed only five goals total in the first three and while two was enough to beat back both Montreal and Ottawa, it was a 4-1 loss to Detroit on Friday. There were a ton of shots in that game (38-37 in favor of the Red Wings), but Carolina just couldn't find a way to score save for the power play. Their PP has scored in 13 of the previous 14 games, but I don't expect that trend to continue as they rank only 19th on the man advantage for the season (at 19.4%). Also, the team is 13-7 Under after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game. San Jose has actually done Carolina "one better" in terms of the power play of late, scoring 14 times in their last 15 games. Two of their goals in the 3-1 win over Columbus Friday came when having a man advantage. Unlike Carolina, there is evidence that this could continue for the Sharks, who rank 4th in PP% for the season. But, at the same time, the current pace will be difficult (if not impossible) to maintain. The Sharks will also have to face Carolina's top goalie, Cam Ward, something Detroit did not have to do. Ward has a .926 save percentage his L4 starts. San Jose's goaltending situation is what has really kept the team afloat. Aaron Dell and Martin Jones have both been reliable options all year. 8* Under Sharks/Hurricanes |
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02-04-18 | Senators v. Canadiens -157 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
8* Montreal (1:05 ET): Recently, it seems as if I've spent ample time discussing the "great divide" that exists in the NHL's Atlantic Division. The top three (in every division) are guaranteed playoff sports and in the case of the Atlantic, it's been well-known (for awhile) who those three will be (Tampa Bay, Boston, Toronto). The rest of the division has essentially been relegated to "also-ran" status as not only have they fallen well behind the top three, but the field is unlikely to catch anyone from the Metropolitan for a Wild Card spot either. Of the two teams here, Montreal can at least cling to some faint hope that a second half run would land them in the playoffs. Ottawa is by just about any objective metric the third worst team in the league. I'll ride with the Habs at home! Now I should point out that the Senators have won two straight. They beat Philadelphia last night, 4-3. But that's all the more reason to bet against them here. Not only have the Sens not won three in a row since sweeping a trip through Western Canada in October, they played last night and for a second straight time needed extra time to achieve victory. It was a 4-3 win at Philadelphia Friday w/ the game going to a shootout. The Sens actually blew a 3-1 lead, but were outshot and it took 12 players (total) to finally get a goal in the SO. Prior to the win, they were tied for the fewest number of road wins in the league. Therefore, it's really tough to believe they're going to win B2B days away from home. Prior to winning two straight, the Sens had lost six in a row and they're still averaging less than two goals per game their last five contests. Montreal snapped its own losing streak last night w/ a 5-2 win over Anaheim. The Ducks are the other team Ottawa has beaten in its two-game win streak. But unlike the Senators, no overtime was required for the Canadiens. The Habs were outshot pretty badly Saturday, 45-29, but the fact they got an incredibly strong effort from backup Antii Niemi (43 saves) is huge. Not only did they get the two points, but today they can start a fresh Carey Price, who has a .936 save percentage against division foes this year. The Habs' power play, which ranks ninth in the league, scored three times yesterday and will be up against the 28th ranked PK here. 8* Montreal |
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02-03-18 | Lightning v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
10* Over Lightning/Canucks (10:05 ET): Vegas is obviously the better story, but for most of this season, Tampa Bay has been the NHL's best team. They arrive in Vancouver (for what should be a relatively easy matchup) w/ the most points and the best scoring differential. However, generally speaking, I don't like to lay this much juice on the road. Therefore, let's look at the total, shall we? The Over seems like a good "buy" considering the Lightning are the highest scoring team in the league and the Canucks are 25th in goals allowed. There's no doubt in my mind that TB will "get theirs" Saturday night. But also don't be surprised if Vancouver is able to find the back of the net multiple times in this one as well. Take the Over. Case in point, Vancouver is off B2B wins and scored four goals in each victory. Those wins both came at home and were at the expense of Colorado and Chicago. They were shutout in the final game before the All-Star Break (by Buffalo!), but the game before that saw them score six goals in a win over the Kings. So that's 14 goals in the last four games for them despite being shutout in one of them. Something else worth noting is Vancouver swept the season series LY from Tampa Bay, scoring nine goals in two games! Of course, the Lightning can score too. They proved that by beating Calgary 7-4 on Thursday night. They too have scored four or more in three of the past four games. The Over is 15-9 for the Lightning this season if they scored four or more goals the previous game. 10* Over Lightning/Canucks |
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02-03-18 | Red Wings v. Panthers -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Florida (7:05 ET): The Red Wings got one over on me last night by beating Carolina, 4-1. But I don't see this subpar club winning B2B road games, so a fade in this spot is the natural reaction. They'll play Florida, a team that did just win B2B road games, beating the Islanders and Buffalo while scoring eight goals in the process. As those who have been following my NHL plays throughout the season already know, I feel the Red Wings have been plenty fortunate these L2 seasons. That may seem odd to say given they didn't make the playoffs last season nor are they likely to this year. (This after a record setting streak of postseason appearances). But a 13-1 SU record in shootouts has "propped them up" and the reality is things should have gone much worse for them. \Florida enters the day two points (one win) back of Detroit for fourth place in the Atlantic. However, there's a huge gap (of 15 points) between third and fourth in the division and only the top three are guaranteed playoff spots. Therefore, it's the Wild Card that should be on both teams' minds moving forward. There's a lot of teams to jump, but right now 56 pts is the number for the final WC in the Eastern Conference (Detroit has 50, Florida 48). So that is not necessarily out of reach. A big key here for the Panthers will be to get an early lead. The team is a perfect 13-0 SU this season when leading after two periods. Given that Detroit is playing its second game in as many nights, I see it being logical to expect Florida to take control early. The respective goaltending situations are something worth monitoring here. The Panthers are riding the glove of 28-year old rookie Harri Sateri right now. After spending 10 years in the minors, Sateri has finally got his chance at the NHL level due to injuries to Florida's top two netminders, Roberto Luongo and James Reimer. He's made the most of it, stopping 62 of 65 shots on goal. As for Detroit, they've gote a decision to make tonight as Petr Mrazek was between the pipes last night and made 36 saves. He's started three of the last four games, so a night off may have to be given. Jimmy Howard, the long-time starter here, is no longer what he once was. His save percentage in his L4 starts is just .861. 8* Florida |
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02-02-18 | Capitals v. Penguins -145 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Not to continuously beat a "dead horse," but the Metropolitan really is a deep and interesting division this season. It's pretty clear that the division will be sending five teams to the playoffs. But outside of first place Washington, who will the other four be? We've currently got seven teams separated by just five points in the standings. The hottest of the bunch is Pittsburgh, who has won three straight to move into third place. The Pens are also 8-2 their L10 games. Tonight, they look to wrap up a perfect homestand with a visit from the aforementioned Caps. This is a really big game for the defending Stanley Cup Champs and one I believe they'll win. They've won 8 of the last 11 times hosting Washington. Getting this one on home ice is a pretty big deal for the Pens. They've won six in a row at home, tying a season-best streak. The last two games have seen them score 11 goals and over the course of the six-game win streak, they've outscored the opposition by greater than a 2:1 margin at 29-14. Over a quarter of their remaining games will be played w/o rest, so taking advantage of the day off here is paramount. I would anticipate this veteran outfit "turning it on" in February. Their shot per game differential is one of the best in the league, indicating better fortune should be forthcoming. They also have the league's top power play at 26.7%. I just can't see opposing goaltenders continuing to maintain a .942 even strength save percentage against the Pens. Though they currently have a five-point edge on the field, the Caps are by no means dominating their division. In fact, they are just 9-4-3 against the rest of the Metro (Pittsburgh is 10-4 SU). Like Pittsburgh, the Caps came out of the All-Star Break and won, 5-3 over Philadelphia. But something certainly worth noting is Washington has a losing road record while being outshot and outscored. Pittsburgh's goals per game average jumps to 3.5 at home, which is pretty significant (about a full goal more per game) compared to what they average on the road. The Caps' penalty killing unit (ranked 17th) is below average, so the chances of being exploited by the Pens' top-ranked PP unit are pretty strong here. 10* Pittsburgh |
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02-02-18 | Red Wings v. Hurricanes -158 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Carolina (7:05 ET): The Hurricanes picked up two crucial points last night by shutting out Montreal, 2-0, here at home. It was their third consecutive win, but that only leaves them tied for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The Metro is likely to send five teams into the playoffs this year, and outside of Washington, it's anybody's guess as to who the other four will be. Currently, you have seven teams separated by just five points! Meanwhile, over in the Atlantic, Detroit is one of several teams already relegated to "also-ran" status. That division is a lot clearer than the Metro right now as you have three teams (TB, Boston and Toronto) that are almost assuredly playoff-bound while the rest are not.  So we've established that Carolina has every reason to be the more motivated side Friday night. They should also be pretty confident knowing that they just beat the Red Wings, in Detroit, 10 days ago. This is a really critical stretch for the 'Canes as well. They'll be playing their next six and nine of the next 10 games at home where they are now 12-7-4 for the year. Something in Carolina's favor for this stretch is that they average an impressive 36.4 shots per game on home ice. So they should get plenty of scoring chances here. As for the other side of the ledger, Detroit is just 28th in goals per game. Carolina may have to turn to Scott Darling in goal tonight (Cam Ward made 27 saves last night), but should be fine either way.  I keep waiting for the Red Wings to lose a shootout. They won another one last night, at home over San Jose, to move to 13-1 in SO's since the start of last season. That's a record that seems totally unsustainable. If not for that record, one has to wonder just how bad their overall won-loss record would look over that time. Now they did outshoot the Sharks, pretty significantly, last night. But only once in the previous six games have they topped two goals in regulation. All but one of those games were played in the Motor City. I just don't think the Red Wings are very good while Carolina is actually #1 in the league in shot per game differential (key metric!). 8* Carolina |
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02-01-18 | Blackhawks v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* Over Blackhawks/Canucks (10:05 ET): As recently as a month ago, if I would have told you that one of these two teams would be in last place on Feb 1st, the virtually unanimous choice would have likely been the Canucks. Sure, they play in the same division as Arizona, but there's certainly no way that mighty Chicago could ever find itself in the division cellar, right? Wrong. They come into today last in the Central. Now that's a bit of a misleading distinction seeing as they have 55 pts, nine more than the Canucks. Furthermore, the Central is as tough as any division in recent memory. Every teams besides the Blackhawks has a winning record. As "easy" as it might seem to call for a Blackhawks' victory here, season-long inconsistencies give me pause. They have won B2B road games, beating Detroit and Nashville, but that was around the All-Star Break w/ plenty of time off in between. The 'Hawks did lose their only prior visit to B.C. earlier this season. I do think they'll be able to score plenty in this matchup though. Vancouver gives up 3.4 goals per game here at home and it's not as if goaltender Jacob Markstrom is involved in any kind of Vezina discussion. Overall, the Canucks rank 25th in goals allowed. The last three Vancouver games have all seen either them or the opponent score four goals. Last time out, it was a 4-3 win over Colorado, in overtime. That was after being shutout by Buffalo, 4-0, last Thursday. The game before that was a 6-2 win over the Kings. All three took place here at home. Chicago's goaltending remains in flux as Corey Crawford is still out. Jeff Glass and Anton Forsberg continue to split time. Forsberg has played the better of the two of late, but he also stunk against Vancouver in the last visit, giving up five goals on 31 shots. 8* Over Blackhawks/Canucks |
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02-01-18 | Panthers v. Sabres -105 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres, by just about any objective measure, should be considered the weakest team in the entire Eastern Conference. They have the fewest points (37) and worst goal differential (-51), though Ottawa is "closing in" in both regards. So, it's certainly a bit "eye opening" to find them at essentially "even money" on the ML tonight. Of course, that must mean they're at home (they are!) and the opponent must be pretty weak as well (they are!). Florida enters this game as another "also-ran" in the Atlantic Division, and had dropped three straight before beating the Islanders, 4-1, on Tuesday. I don't see them winning B2B road games as - overall - they're just 9-17 SU away from South Beach this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo had actually won three in a row before losing its last game. The entirety of that three-game win streak came in Western Canada as they swept a trip through Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, even beating the final two - both - in shutout fashion. But then they returned home on Tuesday and lost to the Devils 3-1. There's been no real home ice advantage to speak of for the Sabres as they're just 6-13-3 here and being outscored by over a goal per game. That being said, this isn't a bad matchup w/ it being their second straight here while Florida is in the second of B2B roadies. Listening to the players, it seems as if there's a real emphasis being placed on this game. "We want to bring that hockey that we showed we can play out west to this arena and for our fans," said Jake McCabe. There have been line changes, hinted at in practice, as well. Florida has some goaltending issues right now, namely in terms of depth. Both Roberto Luongo and James Reimer are out due to injury. That leaves 28-year old rookie Harri Sateri as the only real option between the pipes. Sateri performed admirably in picking up his 1st career win Tuesday night, making 32 saves, but this is a goaltender w/ just four career starts and an .899 save percentage. The Panthers are 1-8 SU this season following a win by 2+ goals. Another thing to consider is the # of shots they tend to allow (36.6 L5 games), the highest number in the league this season. Sabres goalie Robin Lehner is in good enough form as he was the one that posted both shutouts Western Canada. 10* Buffalo |
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01-31-18 | Sharks v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-30-18 | Wild v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Wild/Blue Jackets (7:05 ET): Neither of these teams are happy where they're at coming out of the All-Star Break as both find themselves on the fringe of playoff participation. Columbus is a tenuous second in the Metro, tied w/ Pittsburgh, but just one point ahead of two others and two points ahead of two more. Four of those six teams will likely make the postseason, we just don't know which ones yet and given the Blue Jackets' YTD goal differential (-6), they're far from a "lock" at this point. Over in the Western Conference, Minnesota is one of four teams currently tied for the final Wild Card spot w/ 57 points. In this first game back, I like the Under tonight. The Wild are not a great road team. They're 17-4-4 on home ice, but just 9-14-1 otherwise. Their goal scoring predictably goes down on the road (2.6 gpg), although at the same time they do give up 3.7 gpg. Goalie Devan Dubnyk hasn't been nearly as effective as he was last season. Dubnyk did not have a strong effort in the final game before the Break as he allowed four goals on 21 shots vs. Pittsburgh, before getting pulled. But I'm pretty confident he'll bounce back here w/ the benefit of time off. Also, it sure does help that Columbus is 29th in the league in goals per game as well as dead last (31st) on the power play. It's an ideal opponent for a struggling goaltender. The Blue Jackets are 7-2 Under in the month of January, not a surprise given the offensive rankings listed above. It also helps to have Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been very good at home this year w/ a .933 save percentage. Bobrovsky made 38 saves in the team's 2-1 win over Arizona last Thursday. Offensively, the Blue Jackets have not topped three goals in regulation in any game this month. I expect a slow start to this game as both sides try to get back into the "groove." 10* Under Wild/Blue Jackets |
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