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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-12-21 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
8* Under Nuggets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Thanks to a disastrous fourth quarter (in which they scored only EIGHT points), the Nuggets saw their eight-game win streak come to an end Sunday at the hands of the Boston Celtics. Denver actually led by eight going into the 4th, but then things completely fell apart as Boston scored 40 of the game’s final 48 points. The Nuggets finished with a 36.4 FG% including 8 of 34 from three-point range as they played for the fourth straight time w/o PG Jamal Murray (who is listed as questionable for tonight). We know Golden State is going to be short-handed coming into this game as they are without Kelly Oubre Jr and James Wiseman, their third and fourth leading scorers. This puts even more pressure on Steph Curry, who has scored 32+ in each of the L6 games, but the Warriors are just 3-3 SU in that stretch. The Dubs are only 21st in offensive efficiency, a far cry from their “heyday,” so if they are to “get it done” here, it’ll have to be via the defensive end (they are 8th in efficiency there). Two short-handed teams, one playing in the second night of a back to back, seems like a recipe for an Under to me. Denver’s offensive efficiency drops noticeably without Murray in the lineup. They won’t have a quarter as bad as the fourth yesterday, but the Under is 6-1 in the Nuggets’ last seven road games. Golden State has little offensive firepower beyond Curry and probably won’t match the 53.8% shooting we saw from them when they defeated the inept Rockets on Saturday. 8* Under Nuggets/Warriors |
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04-11-21 | Heat v. Blazers OVER 221.5 | Top | 107-98 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers (10:05 ET): Portland’s game last night (w/ Detroit), a 118-103 win, was the fourth Under for the team in its last five games. But the Blazers remain a very suspect team defensively (29th in number of points per possession allowed) and here they are matched up with a Miami team that’s gone Over in each of its last four games. Granted, not all of those Heat totals were very high. But neither in this one, especially if you look at it from Portland’s perspective. Number is too low. Go Over tonight. Miami has won five of six to move into the middle of the playoff pack in the Eastern Conference. Right now they are in 6th place, just one-half game behind Charlotte and Atlanta, who are tied for fourth. So this is an important game. When they hosted Portland last month, the Heat lost by a score of 125-122. That game saw them shoot 56% from the field and still LOSE. The teams combined to go 36 of 80 from three-point range, which they probably won’t do again. But remember we don’t need the game to be nearly that high-scoring to still cash this Over ticket. Portland is 6th in the Western Conference, but at 10 games above .500 they have a much better record than the Heat. Enes Kanter set a record with 30 rebounds in last night’s win, a nice “step up” performance with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined (Nurkic is expected to play tonight). But maybe the real key was holding the Pistons to 9 of 26 shooting from behind the arc, a percentage the Heat should easily eclipse tonight. With the Over 12-5 when Portland is in the second night of a back to back, this number just looks too low. 8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers |
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04-11-21 | Pelicans v. Cavs UNDER 227 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): We’ve seen some uncharacteristic results from both of these teams lately. Cleveland, who is very bad, actually pulled off B2B wins earlier this week, beating both San Antonio and Oklahoma City on the road. Most shocking of all is how they did. The team that is dead last in the league in points per game (103.9) put up 125 and 129 in those two victories. Of course, they then proceeded to return to their losing ways last night, falling here at home to Toronto by a score of 135-115. So it’s now four straight Overs for the Cavs, a sharp departure from what we’d seen from them the previous five games, all of which went Under. During that five-game stretch, they never topped 101 points and averaged only 90.8 PPG. As I stated earlier, this is the lowest scoring team in the league. So after beating their season average in points scored in three straight games, expect them to have an “off-shooting night” Sunday when they host the Pelicans, who held their previous opponent to only 94 points. That kind of defense was a bit of a radical departure for New Orleans. After all, they’d just given up 139 (to Brooklyn) the game before that. But by holding the 76ers to 94 in a much-needed win, the Pelicans are now “sniffing” the play-in spots for the Western Conference playoffs. They’ve topped 111 just once in the last five games though and my guess is they’ll keep the Cavs in check tonight. Look for this to be a relatively low-scoring game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. The Under is 11-5 this season for Cleveland when the total is 220 or higher. 10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers |
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04-10-21 | Rockets v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 109-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:05 ET): I didn’t have many positive things to say about the Warriors when I faded them yesterday. Sure enough, they ended up losing outright (here at home) to the Wizards 110-107 as 4.5-point chalk. So why would I turn around 24 hours later and lay an even bigger number with the Dubs? Well, look at who they’re hosting. Houston also played last night and was a double digit loser to the Clippers (126-109). That was the Rockets’ 28th loss in their last 31 games. They’ve covered the spread only seven times during that stretch. In yday’s analysis, I mentioned that GS isn’t favored all that often. But the result against the Wizards aside, the Warriors usually win when laying points. They were 13-5 SU in the chalk role going into Friday. Now they have lost 8 of the last 10 games overall as they are fighting just to hold on to a spot in the “play-in” round of the postseason. Their lead over the 11th place Pelicans has dwindled to a single game. If Steph Curry and company don’t get this ship righted, then they could be the “odd team out.” Just last month, the Warriors beat the Rockets by 14 in Houston. They closed as 11-point favorites for the game, so this spread looks like a bargain by comparison. The Rockets were outscored 41-10 in the second quarter last night, which tells you all you need to know about what they are going through. Meanwhile, the Warriors were winning their game with less than 10 seconds remaining. I may not have trusted the Dubs last night, but I do here. 10* Golden State |
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04-09-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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04-09-21 | Wolves v. Celtics OVER 228.5 | Top | 136-145 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Over T’wolves/Celtics (7:35 ET): Boston has gone Under in each of its last seven games. However, a matchup with the team with the worst record in the NBA should result in them putting up a big number Friday. I believe it’s critical to note who the Celtics have faced recently. Their last game was against the Knicks, who have the league’s top scoring defense. Before that, it was the Sixers, who are #2 in defensive efficiency. So it’s not a surprise those games were low-scoring. This will be a much different story. Minnesota is off a 141-137 loss to Indiana, which is the exact opposite of “low-scoring.” It was not an overtime game either. Making matters more embarrassing for the T’wolves’ defensive effort is the fact the Pacers were short-handed, down FOUR starters including All-Star Domantas Sabonis. The Pacers’ bench scored 69 points in the game. They had 77 overall, a season-high, in the first half and opened up a 22-point lead. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised seeing as the T’wolves allow the third most points per game in the league? The last three Celtics-T’wolves encounters have all gone Over. The most recent was over a year ago and Boston won 127-117. Though their last two games were both low-scoring efforts, the Celtics did score 118 and 116 when they faced Houston and Charlotte the two games prior. I expect them to be in that range, if not higher, tonight. Boston isn’t exactly great defensively either as they allow just over 110 PPG. The Over is 8-3 in Minnesota’s L11 road games. 10* Over T’wolves/Celtics |
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04-08-21 | Blazers +7 v. Jazz | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): A REAL tough spot for Utah here. They just lost in overtime to Phoenix last night, which was a significant result as it shrank the Jazz’s lead atop the Western Conference to 1.5 games. Yes, Utah still has the best record in the NBA and this is only the second time they’ve been off B2B losses since early January. But laying this many points to a sneaky Portland team, even at home, seems like a tough ask. I’m taking the points in this one. The Blazers are currently sixth in the West, 10 games over .500 despite a slightly negative point differential for the season. Normally, I’d be looking to fade a team with that kind of resume, but the situation is favorable here and they are getting a lot of points. While Portland has suffered an alarming number of blowout losses this season, such as the 17-point one they took at the hands of the Clippers Tuesday, they are 16-8 ATS off an ATS loss. They have not suffered B2B double digit losses at any point this season. Furthermore, Portland has dropped B2B games only one time since the beginning of March. I realize Utah has won 22 straight home games, but this is one they can lose. Given that mentality, why wouldn’t you take the points? 10* Portland |
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04-08-21 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 204.5 | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Lakers/Heat (7:35 ET): This rematch from last year’s NBA Finals certainly lacks the luster of the six-game series in October or even the meeting the teams had back in late February. That’s owed to the fact LeBron James is M.I.A. as is Anthony Davis for the Lakers. The defending champs are actually 4-5 SU since James got hurt, which isn’t bad, but they’ve fallen into fifth place in the Western Conference. Miami enters this game in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, but with a much worse straight up record than the Lakers (Heat are 26-25, Lakers 32-19) The Heat have actually given up more points than they have scored this season. Things had been trending in a positive direction though. At least before they lost to Memphis 124-112 as 6.5-point favorites Tuesday night. Before that loss, the Heat had won four straight games while allowing only 96.25 PPG. They let the Grizzlies shoot 54.8%, offsetting their own 53.7% shooting. I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of shooting percentages in tonight’s game. Yes, this total is quite low. But it ought to be given how the Lakers’ season has gone. Tuesday’s 110-101 win over Toronto was only the second LA game to go Over since LeBron got hurt. The Lakers are 33-17 Under in all games this season, including 17-2 when facing a team that has a winning record (note: Toronto has a losing record). The problem (for the Lakers) is the fact they have the second lowest offensive efficiency in the league without James. 8* Under Lakers/Heat |
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04-07-21 | Hornets -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): I can’t say that I’m all that excited about the Hornets’ long-term prospects as they are dealing with multiple key injuries right now. Their YTD point differential and net efficiency rating (both negative) indicate that they’ve been a pretty clear overachiever to this point. But they are 5th in the Eastern Conference and you’ve got to give them credit for that. Tonight they are at Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team in even worse shape right now. I’ll lay the points! The Thunder have lost three in a row and it has been ugly. The three losses have all been by 24 points or more and they’re playing no defense with 132 or more points allowed in every game. They lost by 37 at Phoenix and 44 at Portland before losing by 24 at home to Detroit (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference) on Monday. I had the Over in that game vs. the Pistons and OKC allowed Detroit to score a season-high 132 points. Like Charlotte, OKC is dealing with multiple absences from the rotation right now. Charlotte’s scoring average has come way down the L5 games as they are without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Malik Monk. But the Thunder’s woeful defense should allow for some significant improvement at the offensive end tonight. Meanwhile, I just don’t see much in the way of improvement coming for OKC as they’ve not only dropped three straight, but six of seven and 8 of 11. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS L4 as road favorites and 20-5-1 ATS L26 road games against teams with a losing home record. OKC is 9-16 SU at home. 10* Charlotte |
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04-06-21 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 220 | Top | 119-134 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Pistons/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I had the Over in last night’s Pistons game, which was in Oklahoma City. They scored a shocking 132 points (new season-high), which was a sharp departure from their previous game when they lost by 44 at home to the Knicks. Now keep in mind that Oklahoma City is terrible. I don’t expect the Pistons to shoot 51.6% from the floor again when they face Denver tonight. In that loss to the Knicks, Detroit scored only 81 points (a season-low!). The good news for the Pistons is that they’ve covered all three times they’ve been an underdog of at least 12.5 points this season. The bad news is they are 0-3 SU in those games. Denver is not a team you want to be facing right now as the Nuggets have won five in a row and moved past the depleted Lakers into fourth place in the Western Conference. During this five game win streak, the Nuggets have allowed an average of just 101.6 PPG. A head-scratching loss to Toronto, the Nuggets’ only defeat over the L7 games, is also the only time during that stretch they’ve surrendered more than 109 points to their opponents. The fact that Denver plays at the second slowest pace in the league also helps our Under cause tonight. The Nuggets have shot better than 50% during the 5-game win streak, but that’s difficult to maintain. Detroit did hold OKC to 5 of 27 shooting from three-point range last night. 10* Under Pistons/Nuggets |
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04-06-21 | 76ers v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): The 76ers have once again ceded the top spot in the Eastern Conference to the Nets. Brooklyn won last night while Philly lost by 16 at home to Memphis on Sunday. That was the fourth time they failed to cover in the last five games, a stretch where the only two SU wins have come against Cleveland and Minnesota - arguably the two worst teams in the entire NBA. Tonight the Sixers find themselves in Boston, facing a Celtics team that’s coming off B2B home victories. It was a very easy win for the Celtics on Sunday as they blew past injury-riddled Charlotte 116-86 as 9.5-point chalk. Six players, including the entire starting five, finished in double figures and the team made 21 three-pointers. It was also a solid effort at the defensive end, holding the Hornets to 40% overall, including 10 of 31 on 3PA. While only 7th in the East, Boston is only a game out of 4th place. You would assume they’re going to move up the standings before the playoffs begin. They cannot afford any kind of letdown. Adding to the motivation here is the fact this is a double revenge spot for the Celtics. They lost twice down in Philadelphia back in January. Each time they blew a halftime lead. Now the Sixers are without Joel Embiid (still) and he was the dominant presence on the court in those two January meetings. Philly actually trailed Memphis by 26 points heading into the fourth quarter Sunday (again, that was at home!) and they are not a particularly great road team (17-36-3 ATS L53). 8* Boston |
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04-05-21 | Pistons v. Thunder OVER 212.5 | Top | 132-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Pistons/Thunder (7:05 ET): Two teams coming off 40+ point losses on Saturday. OKC took its worst loss in franchise history (133-85) at the hands of Portland while Detroit suffered its worst loss in 27 years (125-81) and that was at home to the Knicks. There’s nothing positive I can say about either team right now and when it’s “bad vs. bad,” typically you don’t see a lot of defense being played. On the bright side, both teams are definitely going to score more points tonight than they did on Saturday. Take the Over. The Thunder have lost five of six and their two losses to open April were by a combined 85 points. Not only did they just let Portland score 133, but Phoenix had just torched them for 140 (on 60.0% shooting) the night before. Three of the last four games have seen OKC surrender at least 127 points. While I can’t guarantee the defense will be THAT bad again tonight, I can say with virtual certainty that the Thunder should see a dramatic increase in their own scoring, compared to Saturday. They are averaging 107.1 PPG at home this season. Detroit has lost six of eight and remains in last place in the Eastern Conference. Losing by 44 at home is obviously inexcusable, but I will point out the Knicks do lead the league in scoring defense. OKC is at the opposite end of spectrum. The last three times the Pistons have been held below 100 points, they’ve come back to score 116, 111 and 118 in their next game. I see a similar number for them tonight. This number is lower than the average number of total points per game for both teams this season. 10* Over Pistons/Thunder |
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04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 215 | Top | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10* Under Lakers/Clippers (3:30 ET): We all know about the Lakers’ current plight. But playing without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, things actually haven’t been THAT bad as the team’s record is 3-5 SU since the James ankle injury. They did win 114-94 in Sacramento Friday night. It’s actually the Clippers that come in off B2B losses (one to Orlando!) and in both games they were held below 100 points. I look for this Sunday matinee to be lower-scoring than expected and thus Under is the call here. The Clippers can be an absolutely maddening team. Before the B2B losses, both of which were here at home, they’d won six in a row. Defense hasn’t really been a problem for them. Over the L10 games they’ve held every opponent to 112 points or less, including 105 or less eight times. But the Clips shot 41% against both the Magic & Nuggets and that’s a big reason why they lost those two games. Rajon Rondo is set to debut this afternoon, but I don’t think that will be much of a boon offensively. The Clippers never led against Denver Thursday night, losing 101-94. They let the Nuggets shoot 52% from three-point range, something I don’t think will happen here with the Lakers. The Lakers haven’t shot better than 48% (overall) in any game since James got hurt. Six times they’ve been held below 44%. But, like the Clippers, their play at the defensive end has been admirable. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and even without James & Davis, they’ve held three of their last four opponents to 94 points or less. Eight of their last nine games have gone Under, including five straight. The Under is 16-2 this season when the Lakers face a team with a winning record. 10* Under Lakers/Clippers |
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04-03-21 | Bucks v. Kings UNDER 239 | Top | 129-128 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Bucks/Kings (10:05 ET): Both teams are in the second night of a back to back, but that’s where the similarities end. Milwaukee was a 127-109 winner in Portland last night while Sacramento lost 115-94 here at home to the Lakers. For the Bucks, last night was their second straight win after suffering three straight losses. For the Kings, last night was a second straight loss after a five-game win streak. The Bucks have shot well each of the last two games. They were 53.2% from the field against the Lakers on Wednesday, then 54.4% against the Blazers last night. A third straight game with that high of a field goal percentage seems unlikely, even though they are facing the Kings, who are not good defensively. Giannis Antetokounmpo was 18 for 18 on two-point attempts last night and scored 47 points. No way he repeats that performance. I do think the Bucks can maintain their recent defensive efforts though. They held the Lakers to a 40.2 FG% and Portland to 36.4. Sacramento has shot 42.4% each of the L2 games. Their two best players - De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield - combined to go 1 for 13 from three-point range last night as the team was held under 100 points for just the second time this season. While you can argue a bit of an offensive bounce back is in order, this O/U line is really high and these teams are “due” for an Under after all of their 16 meetings have gone Over! The Bucks are 5-1 Under playing in the second night of a back to back as well. 10* Under Bucks/Kings |
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04-02-21 | Bucks v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 127-109 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers have overachieved a bit in getting to 11 games over .500. I say that based on the fact they’ve actually given up more points this season than they have scored. Typically, you won’t find a team with a negative YTD point differential sitting 11 games over .500. But there’s no denying the fact the Blazers are in better shape now than they’ve been at any point this season. Both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are back in the lineup and the team has won four in a row. Milwaukee has the best point differential and net efficiency rating among Eastern Conference teams, but they are still only third in the standings. So you can make the case they’ve underachieved. They did snap a three-game losing streak Wednesday, but that win came against the depleted Lakers so it’s not like it could be called “impressive.” Prior to that, the Bucks were just 1-6 ATS their L7 games and what’s been concerning is some of their defensive efforts. They are allowing 114.8 PPG on the road this season. There are times when I’d look at how these teams have performed relative to their metrics and say it’s time for things to “balance out.” But this isn’t one of those times. Portland is coming off a 4-0 road trip (averaged 120.8 PPG) and is 7-2 SU its L9 games overall. Getting points with them at home looks to be a very nice value Friday night. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS this year in games where the total is 230 or higher. The Blazers just turned in a 73-point second half in their most recent game, so take the points. 8* Portland |
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04-02-21 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): You probably don’t need me to tell you that Minnesota has been pretty dreadful this season. Stuck in last place in the Western Conference, the T’wolves’ only shot at escaping the basement is if Houston continues to tank. The T’wolves are off a win, 102-101 over the Knicks on Wednesday night, but that makes for an excellent time to fade as not only are they 1-10 SU this season off a win, but they are 3-7-1 ATS and been outscored by an average of 11.8 PPG in this situation. The one time that Minny won B2B games was when they started the season 2-0! Since then, it’s been 10 consecutive SU losses when off a win. Last time they were in this spot, they lost by 22 … to the Rockets (!) That was after beating the Rockets the previous night. Memphis is well-positioned to “step in” and do some damage here as they’ve covered six of their last seven contests. While only 4-3 SU in those same seven, all three losses were to the first place Jazz. Two of the three losses were by four points or less. The Grizzlies actually led the Jazz going into the 4Q here at home on Wednesday. They were obviously unable to hold that advantage, despite getting 36 (points) from Ja Morant, but it was still a solid effort. With them now favored, we need more than just a “solid effort” here, but considering how the team really needs the win to get back to .500 and move closer to the top eight in the West, I think we’ll get the Grizz at their best here. They easily defeated the T’wolves back in January, 118-107, and are 7-1 ATS against them the L3 seasons. Lay the points. 10* Memphis |
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04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat OVER 219.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
10* Over Warriors/Heat (8:05 ET): Coming out of the All-Star Break, Miami was as hot as any team in the league. They won their final seven games in February and a dominating performance against Cleveland on March 16th (113-98) was their 12th win in 13 games. But then they went into a tailspin, losing six in a row and failing to cover the spread in all six games. It should be noted four of those six losses were by four points or less. They’ve seemingly now “righted the ship” by winning two straight, both in low-scoring fashion, including 92-87 last night at Indiana which was my 10* Game of the Week. Tonight the Heat return home to face Golden State. The Warriors thankfully have Steph Curry back in their lineup and he led the way with 32 points in Monday’s 116-102 win over Chicago. Curry had missed the team’s previous five games and they’d lost four in a row without him. The Dubs currently sit ninth in the Western Conference standings with a two-game gap between them and 8th place. Realistically, it’s looking like they can finish no higher than 7th. In the weaker East, Miami can finish as high as 4th, even though they have a very similar record (to Golden State). Miami has been held to 85 pts or less more than anybody this season and is coming off B2B sub-100 point games. But I believe they rediscover their offense tonight. Victor Oladipo is set to debut and that will help. Not once has the Heat had a three-game stretch where they failed to top 105 points this season. The Over is 39-18-1 the L58 home games vs. a team with a sub-.400 win percentage on the road. Golden State’s road record is 9-15 SU/ATS. The Warriors average 112.7 PPG for the season and when these teams met in late February, the final score was 120-112 (GS won). That was right before Miami went on to win 12 of its next 13. 10* Over Warriors/Heat |
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03-31-21 | Heat -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:05 ET): The Heat ended a 6-game losing streak on Monday with a 98-88 win in New York. They go for two (wins) in a row tonight in Indiana. I think it’s important to remember that prior to the six-game losing skid, the Heat had won 12 of 13 games. The vast majority of those six losses were close games. Two were to the Pacers, one of which was NOT close. They were both at home. So this is a big-time double revenge spot as Miami not only looks to stay in front of Indiana, but also move up the standings in the depth-shy Eastern Conference. The Pacers are off a 132-124 loss (as seven-point favorites) to the Wizards. They’d won four of five before that, including the two wins over Miami. The first saw them shoot the lights out (58.4 FG% including 20 of 33 from 3-pt range) while the second game went to OT. Prior to winning four of five, the Pacers went through a 2-8 stretch themselves, so they’ve had their own struggles. They are only 8-12 SU at home this season (6-14 ATS). In addition to that, they have one of the league’s worst overall ATS marks. The loss on Monday doesn’t bode well as Indiana is 0-3 ATS this season coming off a game where they allowed 130+ points. Miami isn’t quite at full strength, but they’re close. The recently acquired Victor Oladipo is ill and not expected to play here. But Goran Dragic returned to the lineup Monday after missing four games. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 47 points against the Knicks (Adebayo had 18 rebounds too) while Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro combined for 32 more. It was one of the Heat’s better defensive efforts this season and after the six-game slide, I believe this team is due to start turning things around in a positive direction. The double revenge angle is strong here and the Pacers won’t shoot the ball the way they did in the first meeting. The Pacers have also given up 132 or more in two of their last four games. 10* Miami |
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03-30-21 | Hawks v. Suns OVER 222.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): These have been two of my favorite teams to watch this season, so I’m pretty excited about the matchup. Atlanta is 6th in the East with a .500 SU record, but I look for them to finish higher than their current standing by season’s end. Right now, they are in the middle of an eight-game road trip. You may recall that I had the Over in their last game, which cashed and ended up being a 126-102 loss in Denver. That dropped them to 2-3 on the trip, but they easily could have won the other two games they lost. Phoenix is a surprising second in the West, ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They are 3.5 games behind first place Utah after winning two straight in low-scoring fashion. Wins over Toronto (104-100) and Charlotte (101-97) made it a successful trip of their own out East (won three of four). The game vs. Charlotte on Sunday afternoon was really low-scoring when you consider it went to overtime. At the end of regulation, things were knotted at 90 apiece. But I’ll chalk that up to the usual “Sunday afternoon hangover” so many teams seem to experience in those early games. The Suns shot only 35.4% against the Hornets on Sunday and I look for them to easily improve upon that number tonight. Atlanta has let its last two opponents shoot north of 50%. For the year, Phoenix averages 115.3 PPG on 49.2% shooting at home. They are #8 in offensive efficiency. Atlanta is 13-3 Over following a DD loss and their L3 games with a total south of 232.5 have all gone Over. 10* Over Hawks/Suns |
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03-29-21 | Kings v. Spurs UNDER 228 | Top | 132-115 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Spurs (8:35 ET): I chose the Spurs on Saturday and they rolled to a 120-104 win against the new-look Bulls. That snapped a four-game losing skid for Greg Popovich’s team, who is now 7th in the Western Conference with a 23-20 SU record. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that is on a surprising four-game win streak (matches a season-high). It should be pointed out here that the last time the Kings won four in a row, they proceeded to lose their next nine games (also went 0-9 ATS). This particular four-game win streak has seen the Kings beat lowly Cleveland twice and also wounded Golden State. So let’s not go making playoff reservations just yet, although the Kings are now just one game back of the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. Surprisingly, it has been an improvement on the defensive end that has spurred on Sacramento recently. They’ve allowed 108 points or less in three of the last four games. While two of those were against Cleveland, the other time was vs. Atlanta. But I like this game to go Under primarily because I don’t see the Kings matching their red-hot shooting from the last two games. They connected at a ridiculous 59.6% clip against Golden State last Thursday, then were over 50% against vs. Cleveland on Saturday. San Antonio, save for one bad game vs. the Clippers, has been pretty solid defensively as of late. They’ve held six of the last eight opponents to 110 points or less and the Under is 10-1 the L11 times they’ve hosted a team with a losing road record. Sacramento, who is on a 7-0 Under run when playing with exactly one day of rest, is 9-13 SU on the road. 10* Under Kings/Spurs |
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03-29-21 | Raptors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): It’s been a miserable March for the Raptors, who are now 1-11 SU this month. Last night saw them waste a 41-point first quarter as they lost 122-117 at home to Portland. But it is worth mentioning that I was with Toronto in their lone win this month, which occurred last Wednesday when they vanquished a good Denver team by a score of 135-111. Last night was the fifth time this month that the Raptors lost a game by five points or less. Their point differential & net efficiency rating for the year both suggest they should be much better than 10 games below .500. So I’ll back them again here. Detroit is still in last place in the Eastern Conference, a spot they’ve occupied for most of this season. They’ve lost four in a row and while they played both Indiana and Brooklyn tough, they also lost by 14 to Chicago and Washington. Scoring only 92 points against the Wizards should be considered a huge embarrassment. As was the fact the Pistons trailed by as many as 30 points in that game. They only made things a little closer once Bradley Beal, the NBA’s leading scorer, exited the game with an injury. This is the third time this month that these teams have played. As you can ascertain from the info given above, the Raptors lost both times. I know times are tough, but how can someone look at themselves in the mirror after losing to the likes of the Pistons three times in one month? Detroit is just 1-8 SU otherwise in March. Toronto was favored by 7.5 and 6.5 in those two games, so we’re getting a bit of value here. Detroit shot abnormally well (above 51% overall and 32 of 70 from 3-pt range), which I don’t see happening again tonight. The Pistons are just 2-8 SU L10 games despite allowing only 107.5 PPG. 8* Toronto |
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03-28-21 | Hawks v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | Top | 102-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Two teams looking to move up the standings in their respective conferences meet Sunday in what should be a good one. Atlanta is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS since making a coaching change at the beginning of the month and for my money is the fourth best team in the East. Denver has won 10 of its last 13 games (8-5 ATS) to move closer to the injury-riddled Lakers for fourth place in the West. Both sides are coming off wins in their last time out. Atlanta was a 124-108 winner at Golden State. That was - by far - their highest scoring effort so far on this current road trip, which is now half over. When all is said and done, it will be an eight-game trip. The first four games were all played in California and saw the Hawks go 2-2 SU. They probably feel that record should be better as they blew a huge lead and lost to the Clippers, then fell by two at Sacramento. I do not see them matching their 54.8% shooting we saw vs. Golden State, but the number of PPG allowed in the L5 games (104.8) is likely to start going up as well. When these teams met in Atlanta last month, it was a 123-115 Hawks win where the Over cashed pretty easily. The total is several points LOWER for the rematch, which seems odd. Denver has scored at least 110 points in six of its last seven games and is averaging 116.2 at home for the year. The Over is 27-18 in all Nuggets’ games this season. They attempted only seven free throws in the win over New Orleans on Friday and still scored 113 points. 10* Over Hawks/Nuggets |
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03-27-21 | Bulls v. Spurs -3 | Top | 104-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): In the wake of a big trade that yielded Nikola Vucevic, most are going to want to take the Bulls in this spot. But I’m not necessarily “buying the hype” … yet. While it’s true Chicago does now have two All-Star caliber players (Vucevic, Zach LaVine), it’s going to take time for all the new pieces to gel (they made some other moves as well). They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since early in January and just lost to lowly Cleveland in their last game. They’ve lost four of five overall, only breaking 100 points once during that stretch. San Antonio has lost four in a row, the last three of which were here at home. This is a season-long nine-game homestand, so they need to start taking advantage if they want to hold onto their current spot. I will point out that three of the Spurs’ four losses have come against either the Bucks or Clippers. The second game vs. the Clips saw them struggle offensively down the stretch. That was too bad as they held LA to 38.2% shooting for the game. San Antonio is still 8th in the West, two games above .500. That’s better than Chicago, who is five games below .500 and in 10th in the weaker East. Acquiring Vucevic has brought increased optimism in the Windy City, but I remain unsold. The Bulls are a horrendous 2-15 SU/5-12 ATS vs. teams that have winning records. Last time they faced one, they lost by 25. Granted that was the Jazz, but it was also at home as was the loss to Cleveland. Can’t see the Spurs losing four in a row at home and the line looks short to me. 10* San Antonio |
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03-26-21 | Blazers v. Magic UNDER 220 | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Blazers/Magic (8:05 ET): Portland was a 125-122 winner last night in Miami, snapping a two-game losing skid. They are now tied for 5th in the Western Conference, though they’ve been outscored on the year, which gives them a significantly worse point differential than the top five. Really, it’s quite head-scratching how this team is currently eight games above .500. They aren’t very sound defensively, two of their top three players missed significant time and they’ve suffered the most 20+ point losses in the league. But here we are. Orlando is near the bottom of the Eastern Conference and considering their activity at yesterday’s trade deadline, they won’t be moving up anytime soon. They traded three of their top players away and that’s why they are such big underdogs tonight. We likely won’t be seeing any repeat of the Magic’s last performance, a 112-111 win here at home over Phoenix as 9.5-point dogs. Without Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, this team will struggle to score. Those are three double digit scorers and they accounted for more than 50% of the team’s points against the Suns. Portland could get Jusuf Nurkic back tonight. CJ McCollum has already returned. They traded for Norman Powell at the deadline. But what we won’t see tonight is a repeat of last night’s three-point shooting display where the Blazers made 20 attempts from behind the arc. That’s the big key here. When these teams met last month in Portland, the final score was 106-97 and that was with the Blazers making 18 3PA. Orlando had failed to reach 100 in five of its previous six games before beating the Suns. They are 29th overall in scoring. 10* Under Blazers/Magic |
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03-26-21 | Nuggets v. Pelicans +2 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Pelicans are a team that “should have” a better record. Point differential wise, they are “in the black” (meaning they’ve outscored their opponents this season), yet they currently are five games BELOW .500. Compare that to a team like Portland, who is eight games over .500 despite a negative YTD point differential. But lately, New Orleans has taken matters into its own hands by picking up B2B wins. They beat Denver 113-108 and the LeBron-less Lakers 128-111. Now it’s a rematch with Denver at home. The Nuggets are pretty clearly the West’s 5th best team this season, although they certainly didn’t look like it on Wednesday when I (wisely) decided to fade them against the Raptors. As short road favorites, the Nuggets lost 135-111 to a Toronto team that was on a nine-game losing skid. It was Denver’s worst loss of the season. The game was never really close and quite frankly I was shocked at what an easy winner that ended up being. While there’s no doubt that Denver is going to be looking to bounce back, New Orleans just beat them and is a better team than its record shows. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are both really good. The Pelicans’ starting forwards both went for 30+ last week vs. Denver, then Ingram scored a career high 36 vs. the Lakers. Williamson has 21 straight games with 20+ points. The team averages 118.1 PPG at home. Denver is only 1-7 ATS (2-6 SU) this season when the total is 230 points or higher, so this is the kind of game they typically lose. 8* New Orleans |
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03-25-21 | Wizards v. Knicks -3 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): These teams just met Tuesday with the Knicks winning 131-113 as 2.5-point underdogs. I had NY Tuesday and see no reason to “deviate from the script” for tonight’s rematch. The Knicks are a major surprise this year in that they are currently 6th in the Eastern Conference. HC Tom Thibodeau has just done a tremendous job here as the team is #1 in the league in points per game allowed (105.0). The fact that they scored 131 the other night is not surprising as Washington happens to be dead LAST in the league in PPG allowed, giving up an average of 120.2. The Wizards have dropped seven of their last eight games and there’s been only one time during that stretch they didn’t give up more than their season average in points allowed (and that one time wasn’t the lone win either). It is an absolute embarrassment that a team with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook may not even make the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference. Not helping their cause tonight is the fact their scoring dips by more than eight points per game on the road compared to when they’re at home. Six Knicks finished in double figures Tuesday night, led by Julius Randle’s 37 points. The team shot a blistering 16 of 30 from three-point range and led by 20 at halftime. Normally, I might say the Knicks are likely to “cool off,” but facing the Wizards it should be yet another big night at the offensive end of the floor. This is just a really good matchup for NY, who is 2-0 SU/ATS this season following a game where they scored 130+. The Wiz are just 5-19 SU vs. conference opponents this season. 10* New York |
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03-24-21 | Hornets v. Rockets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 122-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/Rockets (8:05 ET): These are two teams that have both fallen on “hard times” recently. Charlotte just lost presumed Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball (likely for the remainder of the season), which is a massive blow to a team that had been overachieving. Houston had just lost 20 in a row before beating Toronto 117-99 on Monday. Victor Oladipo is likely to be moved in the coming days as the Rockets have no chance of making the playoffs and are heading for a rebuild, post-James Harden. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game on Wednesday, even lower-scoring than the 119-94 game they played last month. Charlotte won that game, as a 1.5-point home dog, back on February 8th. After a high-scoring first half (64-60), things slowed down rather dramatically in the second. Houston did not shoot well (40.7%) overall while the Hornets did, particularly from three-point range (19 of 41). Ball made a career-high seven threes in that game (finished with 24-7-10), but he’s obviously not going to do that again tonight. Yes, the Hornets did win their first game without Ball, beating San Antonio Monday night. But they did so in 100-97 fashion. Charlotte is 6-1 Under its L7 games and has failed to top 105 points in any of the last four. Keep in mind all but one of those games were WITH Ball in the lineup. Both teams won on Monday because of their respective efforts at the defensive end (held opponents under 100 pts) and they know that’s the path to victory moving forward. Houston is only averaging 104.6 PPG at home where the Under is now 15-5 for the season. The Under is also 5-1 this season for the Rockets when they are coming off a DD win. I just don’t think either of these teams are very good offensively right now. 10* Under Hornets/Rockets |
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03-24-21 | Nuggets v. Raptors +1.5 | Top | 111-135 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): This is the second night of a back to back for Denver as they face a Toronto team that’s in complete disarray right now. The Raptors are responsible for ending the Rockets 20-game losing streak as they went down in Houston 117-99 on Monday. They are now on their own nine-game losing skid and rumors are swirling about the team being a “seller” at the (trade) deadline with Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell being the possible departures. But amidst all this chaos, the Raptors are only a slight home dog to the Nuggets tonight and I think they’re going to “show up.” Take the points. Having been hit hard by COVID-19 and injuries, Toronto is now 17-26 SU on the year and in 11th place in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind they were .500 and very much considered a playoff team before the current losing skid began. Tonight is very much a “buy low” spot in my eyes. OG Anunoby is set to return to the lineup tonight (sat out Monday) and you’ve gotta think this defense is going to improve. I fully understand that the Raptors have fallen out of favor with much of the public, but their statistical profile is of a team that should be close to .500, not nine games under. Denver was up big on Orlando last night, then nearly let all of a 20+ point lead slip away. They ended up winning 110-99 and covering as 7.5-point road favorites. The Nuggets are solidly in the top five in the Western Conference right now and looking to take advantage of the fact the Lakers’ two stars are both out with injuries. They’ve only lost twice this month, at home to Dallas and New Orleans, but everything about this line “stinks” and I believe it’s a trap game for a team playing w/o rest. Denver is just 1-4 ATS following its last five SU victories. 8* Toronto |
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03-23-21 | Wizards v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 113-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): The NBA’s Eastern Conference is very BAD this year. Or at least you can say that it’s “lacking depth.” There are only three teams (Philly, Brooklyn, Milwaukee) that are currently more than one game above .500. The massive drop-off after that trio sees seven teams separated by just 2.5 games. Surprisingly, one of them is the Knicks. At the start of the season, no one saw this team as a likely playoff contender. But here they are in 7th place and allowing the lowest number of points per game in the entire league. Tom Thibodeau clearly deserves some sort of award. As depth-shy as the East is this season, Washington still finds itself way off the pace for even a play-in spot. They are 15-26 SU and at the opposite end of the spectrum (from the Knicks) when it comes to points allowed as they give up a league-high 120.0 per game. They surprisingly held the Nets to just 113 the other night, in a game effort, but the end result was still a loss, their sixth in the past seven games. Sunday was the first time during that 1-6 SU stretch that they didn’t allow more than 120 points. The Knicks aren’t a high-scoring team, but I expect them to post a big number tonight. They might be just 1-3 SU L4 games, but all three losses came by five points or less, two of them by a total of four points. Also, those losses were to Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Sunday’s loss to the Sixers was an OT game. It’s very sad that Washington isn’t a real playoff contender in the East, considering they have both Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook. New York is simply the better team here and playing with more effort, especially on the defensive end. They beat the Wiz 109-91 as three-point road favorites last month. 10* New York |
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03-22-21 | Hawks v. Clippers -6 | Top | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): For a while now, I’d thought Atlanta was much better than its record showed and sure enough they’ve really picked up the pace by going a perfect 8-0 in March, including 6-0 since the All-Star Break. This is a team that has had a positive scoring differential and net efficiency rating for basically the entirety of the season, so I’m not surprised to see them up in 4th place in the Eastern Conference right now. However, this shapes up to be their toughest matchup in quite some time and I see the win streak coming to an end tonight. The Clippers have been maddeningly inconsistent all year. You’d have to go back more than a month to find the last time they strung together B2B wins. However, they are still 4th in the West, the stronger of the two conferences, and coming off a commanding 27-point victory over Charlotte that took place here at home Saturday night. In four of the last five games, the Clips have held their opponent to 105 points or less. This despite being w/o both Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka. Give credit to Atlanta for its eight-game win streak, but they’ve been beating some weak teams such as Orlando, Sacramento, Cleveland, Houston and Oklahoma City. They also just faced the Lakers, the game where LeBron got hurt. Not having to deal with James or Anthony Davis, the Hawks rallied to win that game by five points. That helped the Clippers out and now they can help themselves as there’s definitely room to move up with the Lakers being so vulnerable right now. They still have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, so I’m not concerned about the injuries to Beverley and Ibaka. 10* LA Clippers |
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03-21-21 | Wizards v. Nets OVER 245 | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Wizards/Nets (7:05 ET): I don’t think you can find a matchup more likely to produce a ton of points than this one right here. Now obviously, that means the total is going to be high. But Brooklyn leads the league in scoring at 120.4 points per game. Washington gives up the most points at 120.2 PPG. So you have to figure the Nets will score a ton tonight. The Wizards should follow suit as they have hit at least 119 in each of their last four contests. Take the Over. The Nets are 14-2 SU their L16 games, but coming off a shocking 121-113 loss to Orlando, a game where they came in as 11-point favorites. While they finished below their season average in PPG, the main culprit for the defeat was the fact they let Orlando sink 21 three-pointers. It was also the second straight game a Brooklyn opponent shot 51.2% from the field. I won’t be surprised to see the defensive issues persist tonight, but there is a reason this team has been so successful and that’s the offensive end of the floor. I expect James Harden will have a bounce back game after struggling vs. the Magic (just 4 of 15 shooting). Washington has given up at least 120 points in six straight games. Brooklyn’s last three games have all gone Over. So did both previous meetings this year vs. the Wizards and surprisingly enough, both were Washington victories. The second was an insane 149-146 final and there was no overtime. The first was a 123-122 final. 10* Over Wizards/Nets |
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03-19-21 | Pacers v. Heat -4 | Top | 137-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:05 ET): Indiana has been in a downward spiral for some time now as they’ve dropped 8 of their last 10 games overall, including three of four since the All-Star Break. Some tough matchups haven’t helped as they first had to go on the road to face the Lakers, Suns and Nuggets, followed by a home game vs. red hot Brooklyn. But the fact that they’ve gone just 1-8-1 ATS in those L10 contests speaks to the fact all's not well here. The Pacers are now five games below .500 on the year and now are set to face a Miami team that’s trending in a much different direction. Though the Heat are 11-2 SU their L13 games and up to 4th (place) in the Eastern Conference, they are off a loss here. Ja Morant hit the game winning layup with just over a second remaining as the Grizzlies ended up beating the Heat 89-85 on Wednesday. In the only two losses over the last month, Miami has been held to 85 points or less. That seems to be a recurring theme for them as they’ve now been held to 85 pts or less a league-high six times. But after the last one, they bounced back quickly and defeated the Pelicans by 10 points in the next game. Miami is now healthier than it's been all season, which helps explain the recent surge. They may also have Trevor Ariza making his debut tonight after acquiring him in a trade with OKC. This is the first time facing Indiana since the Heat swept them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. The teams play again here on Sunday. The Heat couldn’t have asked for a better time to face the Pacers than right now. By the way, Miami has been playing excellent defense of late as they’ve held seven of their last eight opponents below 100 points, a remarkable achievement in today’s NBA. 10* Miami |
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03-18-21 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 229 | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over T’Wolves/Suns (10:05 ET): We all remember how the entire sports world was put on lockdown a little over a year ago. Since resuming, the Phoenix Suns have been one of the best teams in the entire NBA. They won all eight games in the bubble and while they were still denied a playoff berth, that hasn’t stopped them from starting this season 26-12. Truly one of the ascendent teams in this league, the Suns are only 2.5 games back of the Jazz for the top spot in the Western Conference as they have won 18 of their past 22 games. They are off a commanding 122-99 win over Memphis back on Monday. Minnesota operates at the opposite end of the spectrum. They have the fewest number of wins in the NBA (9) and have been the loser in 11 of their last 13 contests. Tuesday saw them go down 137-121 at the hands of the Lakers, who were playing the second night of a back to back. Thus the T’wolves were again denied B2B wins, something they have not done since starting the season 2-0! Since that time, they are just 7-31 SU overall. This is the first of two straight games for them here in Phoenix. The last time these teams played was Feb 28. That was a relatively low-scoring game with the Suns winning 118-99 (as a 10-pt favorite). Neither team shot well from 3-point range and it was a bad overall shooting night from Minnesota. Given that the T’wolves just allowed 137 points in their last game, I expect Phoenix to score plenty tonight. They’ve scored 120 or more in 8 of the last 12 games. Minnesota’s L5 games have averaged 241.4 points as they’ve topped 120 three times themselves while also giving up that many three times. They’ve allowed 135+ twice. The Over is 6-1 for them this season after a game where they allowed 130+ points. 10* Over T’Wolves/Suns |
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03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -3 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): Once again, I’m fading Sacramento. The last time I did so was Monday and sure enough they blew a 4Q lead and lost 122-116 in Charlotte. This play is quite similar in that we’re laying a short number to them on the road. Washington may not be as strong as Charlotte this season, but after losing to the Sixers and the Bucks twice, they should be ready to take advantage of a rare favorable spot. The Wizards’ current 1-6 SU slide is very much a byproduct of “who they’ve played” and I like them to bounce back here. The Kings lost more than a game on Monday. Marvin Bagley III, one of their top players, fractured his hand and will be out indefinitely. I’m sure the team will still figure out ways to score, but the issue for them remains on the defensive end where they are about as bad as anyone. No team in the league gives up more points per possessions and sure enough they’ve allowed 120+ points in five of the last six games. They shot 55.8% themselves on Monday and still lost. That dropped them to 3-13 SU since Feb 9 and those wins came against Detroit (worst team in the East), the Lakers (no LeBron/Davis) and Houston (17-game losing streak). Two of the three wins were by three points each. If there’s one thing that the Wizards do well, it’s score. So expect a ton of points from them tonight. Now, like the Kings, they too struggle at the defensive end. Notice how high the total is for this game. But, when the total is 230 or higher this season, Sacramento’s ATS record is just 4-12 (2-14 SU). Hopefully, 3-point shooting specialist Davis Bertans (knee) will be able to suit up tonight for the Wiz. If not, Bradley Beal (NBA’s leading scorer) and Russell Westbrook (off 23-17 game) should still carry them to a win and cover. 10* Washington |
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03-17-21 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Bucks/Sixers (7:05 ET): There are three elite teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference this season and these are definitely two of them (Brooklyn being the other). Milwaukee has finished first in the East each of the L2 seasons (no NBA Finals appearances though) and has the best YTD point differential. But it’s Philadelphia leading the way so far this year with a 28-12 SU record and they’ve won six in a row. Not to be outdone, the Bucks come into tonight riding a four-game win streak. Something will have to give. Philly’s recent shooting spree was “due” to cool off and sure enough it did last night. While they still managed to beat the Knicks, they did so in low-scoring fashion, 99-96 as seven-point favorites. They had to come from behind to win and did so by holding the Knicks to just 14 points in the fourth quarter. The previous five games had seen the Sixers shoot a blistering 54.2% from the field, which couldn’t possibly be sustained and sure enough they shot just 41.1% last night, including 11 of 32 from three-point range. Milwaukee has scored 125+ in each of its last three games, but two of those were against Washington, who plays little to no defense. The Bucks shot 55.3% from the field in their last game, so they are due to “cool off” as well. The Sixers are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and 4-1 Under this season when the total is 230 points or higher. This should be a hard fought game that stays Under a VERY high total. 8* Under Bucks/Sixers |
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03-16-21 | Thunder v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The East isn’t particularly deep this season (only three good teams, IMO) and there is only a four-game gap between 4th and 11 place in the conference. Chicago is a team “in the mix” despite a SU record of 17-20. They just took advantage of the shorthanded Raptors Sunday night, earning one of their most lopsided wins in awhile, 118-95 as a three-point favorite. Now the Bulls can make it B2B wins by beating what I consider one of the weaker teams in the league, Oklahoma City. It’s a home game and a short number and I say lay it. The Thunder are also coming off a win on Sunday as they beat the Grizzlies 128-122 as a 9.5-point home underdog. It was OKC’s third win in the last four games, though they are still closer to the bottom than the top in the West with a 17-22 overall record. They’ve been a bit more competitive than expected, especially on the road where their ATS record is 13-5. But by most objective measures, they still should be counted among the worst teams in the NBA. After a game where they score 115+ points, it's a good time to fade the Thunder. They are just 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in this situation. Chicago didn’t even get much from leading scorer Zach LaVine against Toronto as their leading scorer finished with only 15 points, his second lowest total of the season. He had 35 in the first meeting with the Thunder though, which the Bulls lost 127-125 in OT. The Bulls were favored to win that game (-2.5) and I like the revenge angle here, especially considering their 15-5 ATS mark this season when facing teams with a losing record. OKC can be pesky on the road, but this number is too low. 10* Chicago |
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03-15-21 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 227 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Clippers/Mavericks (9:05 ET): Following a terrible 135-115 loss last night in New Orleans, Kawhi Leonard called the Clippers’ lack of consistency “very concerning.” He’s right. The team trailed by as many as 33 last night and is now only fourth in the Western Conference standings. They’ve dropped four of their last five games with the only win coming at home vs. Golden State. All four losses have come on the road - where they’ll be again tonight - and two were to sub-.500 teams. Speaking of inconsistent, it will be Dallas hosting the Clippers tonight. The Mavs have been on a recent uptick, winning five of their last six games, but are still only in 8th place. I expect better from them after an underachieving 2019-20 campaign. Saturday’s 116-103 win in Denver was definitely a step in the right direction, especially coming on the heels of a disappointing loss at Oklahoma City in the previous game. If there is one bright spot for the Clippers here, it’s the fact they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season in the second night of back to back. But who could forget the last time they faced Dallas? They were down 50 points at halftime, which was a shot-clock era record, and suffered the worst defeat in franchise history (124-73). Obviously, they are going to score more tonight. But with a suspect defense (Pelicans shot 65.4% last night) and Patrick Beverley still M.I.A (and maybe Serge Ibaka too), the Clips will give up their fair share here as well. I see this game easily going Over the total as the Over has hit in each of the L4 Clippers’ games plus Dallas is 4-0 Over the L4 times it has been off a double digit win. 10* Over Clippers/Mavericks |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): It would certainly appear as if the oddsmakers opened this line far too low. Not that I’m any kind of “big believer” in Charlotte, but Sacramento is most definitely one of the worst teams in the league (again) this season as they have the third worst record in the Western Conference and are giving up a league-high 120.0 PPG. Lay the points in this one. With three consecutive victories, the Hornets have climbed above the .500 mark and into sixth place in the Eastern Conference. This is something few would have imagined at the start of the season. In Saturday’s 114-104 win over the Raptors, they had a huge 1st quarter (44 points) and never really looked back. They wound up tying a season-high with 21 made three-pointers, 11 of those coming in the big opening quarter. Considering how porous the Kings are at the defensive end, Charlotte seems poised for another big offensive effort tonight. Two weeks ago, they won 127-126 in Sacramento, led by a career-best 42 points from PJ Washington. The Kings have split their two games since the All-Star Break, but are coming off a 15-point loss to the Hawks. They are also just 3-12 SU since Feb 9. Those three wins came against: Detroit (worst team in the East), the short-handed Lakers (no LeBron/Davis) and Houston (who is on a 16-game losing streak). Two of the three wins were by three points each. I know Charlotte has had its share of close wins recently, but unlike Sacramento, they can play defense. The current three-game win streak has seen them allow 102, 102 and 104 pts. With about 3,000 fans now allowed in, there’s a sense of home court advantage here. 8* Charlotte |
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03-14-21 | Jazz v. Warriors +7 | Top | 119-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10* Golden State (4:05 ET): The Utah Jazz were THE surprise team in the league in the first half. Not that no one expected to be good, but ascending to the top spot in the entire NBA was something few, if any, saw coming. But somewhat predictably, the Jazz have begun to “give a little back.” They lost their final two games before the All-Star Break, then failed to cover Friday against Houston, although they were massive 19-point favorites for that one. Golden State comes in on a season-worst four-game losing streak. Three of those losses - to the Lakers, Suns and Clippers. While it’s notable that those are three of the best teams in the Western Conference, so is the fact that all four losses have been on the road. Prior to this current losing skid, the Warriors had not dropped more than two in a row at any point this season. Ironically enough, this four-game losing streak came on the heels of their first three-game win streak of the season. The first Utah-Golden State matchup of the season did not go well for the Warriors as they lost by 19 points. But that game was in Salt Lake City. Seven of Utah’s nine losses this season have come on the road while Golden State is a solid 12-6 SU at home. Also interesting is the fact the Dubs were “only” 7-point underdogs when they visited Utah for that first meeting. Now the number is roughly unchanged for a home game. I’m seeing some value today on the underdog especially since they’ve won three straight here in San Francisco. 10* Golden State |
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03-13-21 | Blazers -4 v. Wolves | Top | 125-121 | Push | 0 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): While I’m a tad bit skeptical of the Blazers maintaining their current 6th place spot in the Western Conference, I do think they match up quite well with the T’wolves. Of course, most teams match up well with the T’wolves. Minnesota is in last place with an 8-29 SU record. They are arguably the worst team in the entire league, though they did start the second half with a shocking 30-point win over New Orleans. But they went into the All-Star Break on a 9-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. After the shocking win Thursday, look for the T’wolves to revert back to their losing ways tonight. They shot a season-high 53.7% against New Orleans, so the Break treated them well. The 135 points were also a season-best. However, this is a team that ranks 27th in offensive efficiency, so I don’t think the shooting we saw Thursday will carry over. The fact that the Pelicans shot 6 of 32 from three-point range while the T’wolves were 19 of 40 was key. New Orleans actually led by 16 early in the game! Portland’s second half to the season started with a 127-121 loss at home to Phoenix. The Suns are a really good team this year, so that result doesn’t bother me. The Blazers had actually beaten the Suns last week to go into the All-Star Break on a three-game win streak. The only previous meeting with Minnesota was a 135-117 win at home that featured a 47-point quarter. Minnesota got a career-high 28 points from a third string PG Thursday and has won B2B games only once all season (started 2-0!). 10* Portland |
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03-12-21 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Indiana’s first half ended with an 0-6 ATS run and they lost outright in five of those six games. The one victory was by only three points against Cleveland and even then they trailed by 19 in that game. The end result of this is the Pacers have fallen from the top eight in the Eastern Conference and are in a precarious position right now, sitting at 16-19 SU overall. They get no breaks to start the second half as they have to head to LA to face LeBron and the Lakers. Now the Lakers’ weren’t exactly playing their best basketball heading into the Break either. Playing without Anthony Davis, they dropped six of eight in what was their worst stretch all year. LeBron sat out the last game, a 123-120 loss to Sacramento, so take that result with a “grain of salt.” The rest came at a good time for this team as LeBron had really been shouldering a huge load. I think we’ll see them come out strong at home Friday night and this is really a short line when you think about it. Indiana is still waiting for Caris LeVert to finally suit up. He may return later in this road trip, but not tonight. LeVert was supposed to fill the void left by trading Victor Oladipo and the Pacers have really struggled since that move was made as they don’t have a reliable third scorer. Defensively, they were torched in their previous five games, allowing the opponents to shoot a collective 53.4% from the field. The Pacers have failed to cover their last eight games as an underdog. 8* LA Lakers |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-102 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:05 ET): With a four-game win streak going into the All-Star Break, the Nuggets were able to climb up into fifth place in the Western Conference. They were able to cover the spread in all four of those victories as well. Two were 30-point blowouts, one of them at Milwaukee, and what’s most impressive of all is that all four wins came on the road. Before heading back to Denver for a five-game homestand, the Nuggets wrap up their road trip tonight in Memphis. The Grizzlies are also on a 4-0 ATS win streak. But, unlike Denver, they did not win every game straight up as there was a one-point loss to Milwaukee. Nor was every game on the road. The one-point loss to the Bucks was here at home as was a 127-112 win over hapless Washington Weds night. So Memphis has a game under its belt since the break, which is not the case with Denver. I don’t really see that as being an advantage for either side heading into tonight. The Grizzlies do not have much of a home court advantage as they are just 8-11 SU on their own floor this season. Looking at their three previous wins, two were against Washington and the other against Houston, who is arguably the coldest team in the league right now. The fact Denver went to Milwaukee and won by 31 is incredibly impressive. Nikola Jokic has been playing out of his mind and the team is now 4th in the league in points per game (115.9). Memphis is 4-10 ATS following a double digit win. 10* Denver |
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03-11-21 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I think it’s fair to say there are three teams better than the rest in this year’s Eastern Conference. Milwaukee, in my view, is still the best. But Brooklyn is probably #2 and certainly has the most star-laden roster. In addition to Durant, Irving and Harden, the Nets now have Blake Griffin among their ranks in what is shaping up to be a “Championship or bust” type of campaign. The second half gets underway with a home game against Boston, who has underachieved and is not in their league. The Celtics are currently 4th in the East but as I indicated above, there is a definite gap between them and the top three. That gap was shrunk somewhat when they won their final four games before the All Star Break. All four wins were pretty close though (by seven points or less) and at home. The team is just 7-12 SU on the road so far and 6-13 against the spread. Boston has lost six straight on the road and they are 0-3 SU/ATS their L3 visits to Brooklyn. On X-Mas, they lost by 28 to the Nets - at home. Now Durant and Griffin aren’t playing tonight, but that’s OK seeing as Harden has been on fire, averaging 25.5 points, 11.4 assists and 8.7 rebounds with the Nets while delivering eight triple doubles.They lead the league in scoring (121.1 PPG) and “oh, by the way” are 10-1 SU/ATS their L11 games. Brooklyn is now actually the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals and while I’m not sure I agree with that, this line is far too short given that marketplace projection. Their last three wins have all been by double digits. 10* Brooklyn |
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03-10-21 | Spurs v. Mavs -4 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): I’m expecting a big second half from the Mavs. Reason being they underachieved last year and that typically leads to a higher finish in Y+1. Currently, they are eighth in the Western Conference, but have won three in a row, including an impressive 115-98 road win over the Nets. They’ve won 9 of the last 11 overall, so really the “turnaround” is already underway. They’ve also won four of the last five regular season meetings with the Spurs, including the last one, 122-117 in San Antonio. That was back on January 22nd and the Mavs would then go on a perplexing six-game losing streak that led to a lot of finger pointing. But as already detailed, the ship seems to have been righted and the fact the Mavs were able to win their last game without Luka Doncic was encouraging. Doncic will play Wednesday and considering he had 36 the last time these teams played, I’m expecting a big game from the All-Star. He comes in averaging 28.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists for the season. The Spurs are 7th in the West, one spot ahead of Dallas. But I’m not sold on them maintaining that position with this “motley crew” of a roster. HC Greg Popovich will always have his team playing hard, but San Antonio went into the break with a loss to OKC. They are bottom seven in the league in effective field goal percentage and just 5-12 ATS the L17 meetings with Dallas. I took the Mavs in that prior meeting and will do so again here. 10* Dallas |
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03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns OVER 224.5 | Top | 98-120 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Over Warriors/Suns (10:05 ET): Golden State has now lost two in a row. They usually come up big in this spot and by “usually,” I actually mean “always” as they’ve yet to lose three games in a row at any point this season. Ironically, these B2B defeats came on the heels of the Dubs’ first three-game WIN streak of the season. They fell last night in Portland 108-106. That they weren’t able to score more points against a bad defensive team like the Blazers has to be viewed as terribly disappointing. Building off last year’s perfect run in the NBA “bubble” the Suns are definitely a team you want to pay attention to in the Western Conference. Winners of 15 of their last 18 games, including the last three, they are now in second place ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They just beat the Lakers 114-104 on Tuesday. It was the third straight game and fifth time in the last six that they held the opposition to 104 or lower. That’s really impressive, but six of their last eight games (including vs. the Lakers) have still gone Over. The Under is 6-0 the L6 times these teams have met. The most recent meeting took place in late January and saw Phoenix win 114-93. Golden State had a dreadful shooting night there, but I expect better from them tonight as they are still quite capable of a big night, like when they made over 60% against Charlotte last week. Outside of Steph Curry, no one stepped up last night. Expect a player or two to step up here and Phoenix is shooting 50% its L5 games. 8* Over Warriors/Suns |
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03-04-21 | Heat v. Pelicans OVER 227 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
8* Over Heat/Pelicans (8:35 ET): I realize that Miami sometimes can be a low-scoring team (finished with just 80 points Tuesday vs. Atlanta), but New Orleans’ games almost always end up being high-scoring and that’s how I think this one will end up. The Pelicans have seen 11 of their last 12 games stay Under the total. The exception was a 117-114 loss to San Antonio where the O/U line was 232. That is the only time in the last seven games NO failed to score at least 120 points. Miami has been held to 85 points or less six different times this year, which is the most in the entire league. But the 80 they scored Tuesday marked a new season-low as they couldn’t hit “water from a boat” early on, especially from behind the arc. They missed 13 of their first 15 three-point attempts and were never really in the game. You’ve gotta expect better shooting tonight, even if Bam Adebayo and/or Jimmy Butler sit. It helps that they are facing a Pelicans team that is 29th in defensive efficiency and lets teams hit nearly 40% from 3-pt range. New Orleans is also coming off a loss, theirs by a score of 128-124 to Chicago. The fact the Pelicans have scored 120 or more in seven of their last nine games, but gone only 4-5 SU should tell you all you need to know about their defensive capabilities. Not surprisingly, they have the highest Over percentage in the league. The Heat are 5-1 Over following a double digit loss at home. 8* Over Heat/Pelicans |
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03-04-21 | Bucks v. Grizzlies +6 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This year’s Bucks team just doesn’t seem as strong compared to the previous two seasons. They are third in the Eastern Conference and were just trounced (at home) by Denver, 128-97, Tuesday night. I concede that there are several underlying metrics that indicate Milwaukee is still the best team in the East. They’ve won five in a row before the Nuggets loss. But they have a losing record on the road (7-9 SU/6-10 ATS) and tonight they are in Memphis. The Grizzlies have won B2B games to get back over the Mendoza Line. They are 16-15 SU on the season and in ninth place in the much tougher Western Conference. Strangely, they’ve not been all that good at home (7-10 SU), although they did recently defeat the Clippers by 28 here. Each of their last two wins were on the road and they were blowouts, particularly the one vs. Houston (133-84). More recently, they won in D.C., beating the Wizards 125-111 as a 1-point dog. Both teams have been dealing with some key absences of late and with this being the last game before the Break, most of those players figure to remain out. But it does look as if Kyle Anderson is set to return for the Grizz and he’s the team’s best outside shooter. Memphis has had a different leading scorer in each of its last three wins, so they don’t necessarily rely on one player. At the defensive end, they’ve allowed an average of just 102 points the L5 games. Having also scored at least 122 in three of the last four, the Grizzlies should easily cover tonight. 10* Memphis |
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03-03-21 | Hawks v. Magic OVER 223.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Magic/Hawks (8:05 ET): In their first game under interim coach Nate McMillan, Atlanta picked up a much needed victory last night in Miami. It didn’t take many points to do so (just 94) as the Heat were held under 85 points for a NBA-high sixth time this season (they finished with just 80). Truthfully, it didn’t take long to figure out what the final result would be. Miami opened the game by missing 13 of its first 15 three-point attempts and never really recovered. The 80 points scored were a season-low for them. Coming off a game like that, it may seem a little strange that I’m liking the Hawks to go Over the total tonight. But I think the number of points allowed last night had less to do with Atlanta’s defense and more with it being just an “off-night” for the Heat. For the season, the Hawks are still allowing 112.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. They are in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. Last night was the fewest points allowed by Atlanta in a game all season. It’s a given they’ll allow many more tonight. At the same time, I expect the Hawks own shooting to improve as well. Trae Young has been struggling recently. It’s the first time he’s gone three consecutive games without scoring at least 20 at least once. He has just 50 points in the three games. But facing a team that just gave up 130 points in its last game should change all that. Orlando has actually allowed 124+ points in three straight, so they are really struggling at that end of the floor right now. The Over is 11-5 the L16 times in Atlanta has been in a back to back. 10* Over Hawks/Magic |
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03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
10* Under Suns/Lakers (10:05 ET): Should be a good game here. The Suns are most definitely “hot” and a “team on the rise” (see what I did there?) in the Western Conference. They’ve gone 14-3 SU since Jan 28 and have established themselves as a top four team (in the West). They’ve held four of their last five opponents to 100 points or less, the lone exception being a wild loss at home to Charlotte last Wednesday. They’ve since won at both Chicago (106-97) and Minnesota (118-99). The challenge will obviously be greater here as the Suns face the defending NBA Champion Lakers. However, things haven’t been all that great in LA recently. There was a four-game losing streak that culminated with a beatdown at the hands of the Jazz. Clearly, LeBron James misses the injured Anthony Davis. But like what we’ve seen from Phoenix of late, the Lakers quickly got back to playing defense. They come into tonight having won two in a row as they held Portland to 93 and Golden State to 91 points. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency (by a pretty comfortable margin) and allow just 105.6 PPG. Five of their last six games have seen either they or the opponent held below 100. The one exception was an overtime loss to the Wizards, whose games are almost always high-scoring. Phoenix also happens to be in the top six in defensive efficiency and they are also second to last in tempo, meaning their games - on average - feature the second fewest number of possessions in the league. Fewer possessions = less scoring. The L4 meetings here in LA have all stayed Under. 10* Under Suns/Lakers |
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03-01-21 | Jazz v. Pelicans +7 | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Turns out the Jazz aren’t infallible after all as they just dropped a game in Miami Friday, 124-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Now they did immediately bounce back with a 124-109 road win against sorry Orlando. With that win and cover, Utah is now an incredible 23-3 SU and 22-4 ATS its last 26 games. But as I’ve written before, maybe we shouldn’t be *THAT* surprised about the team’s SU record considering it has gone off as the favorite in all but two games this season. Now the ATS record is clearly impressive and there’s no denying the Jazz have been the league’s best team to this point. They’ve outscored the opposition by 9.7 PPG. However, can they possibly continue covering the spread at this rate? I don’t think so. Tonight they are laying a hefty number to a Pelicans team that I feel is better than its overall record. New Orleans is off B2B close losses, both on the road, against Milwaukee and San Antonio. They are now just 11th in the Western Conference and five games below .500. Given that the Pelicans’ were the 8-seed in LY’s playoffs and expected to be better in 2020-21, their current standing has to be considered a disappointment. But, once again, I believe they are better than the record shows. Zion Williamson has been a beast and the team posted the league’s best offensive efficiency rating in the month of February. Now defense has been a much different story and facing the league’s most prolific three-point shooting team doesn’t sound like a good matchup. However, I believe the Pelicans will score enough tonight to “keep pace.” Take the points. 10* New Orleans |
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02-28-21 | Knicks v. Pistons | Top | 109-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): This is WAY too much respect for a Pistons team that is in last place in the Eastern Conference. While I don’t think Detroit is necessarily the worst team in the East, that’s a pretty low bar. Meanwhile, the Knicks may actually be for real as they battled back to defeat Indiana 110-107 last night to get back to .500 for the first time in over a month. That’s good enough for 5th in the conference, a shocking place for a team that no one expected to do well this season. Julius Randle led the way last night with 28 points and 10 rebounds for the Knicks. It was their second consecutive win as well as the sixth in the last eight games. How is it that the Knicks are beating expectations? In a word, “defense.” They lead the entire NBA in scoring defense (shocking!) and give up 5.2 PPG fewer than the next best team in the East! Tonight they are facing one of the worst offensive teams in the league in Detroit, who is 27th in effective field goal percentage. The Pistons fell behind by as many as 17 early against Sacramento on Friday, then ended up blowing an eight-point 4Q lead. It’s been that kind of year in the Motor City. The team has won just one of its last six and topped 107 (points) just one time in that stretch (and it wasn’t the game they won). They’re more short-handed compared to the Knicks right now and the fact the Pistons are 6-0 ATS this season vs. Atlantic Division teams seems like a statistical oddity. The key to that ATS record is they are usually big underdogs. Not here. 10* New York |
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02-27-21 | Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 225.5 | Top | 126-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for OKC here. They beat Atlanta last night, 118-109. It was an odd game that saw both teams wearing very similar color jerseys at first. The Thunder made a “wardrobe change” at halftime and it seemed to work, although it was the first half that saw them shoot 60% from the field. I highly doubt we’ll see that kind of shooting again from them and not just because they are 28th in the league in offensive efficiency and 27th in points per game. Their four games previous to last night all stayed Under the total. So will this one. Denver has had its own issues lately, though not wardrobe related. They’ve lost four of six to fall back into eighth place in the Western Conference. That’s still a whole heck of a lot better than where Oklahoma City is at (12th), but the Nuggets were in the Conference Finals last season and expect to finish high. Ironically, I think they’re better than their record this year, something I did NOT believe to be the case each of the L2 seasons. These teams just met two weeks ago and the final score was 97-95 with Denver winning at home. They combined to miss 52 of 72 three-point attempts. A little known fact with the Nuggets is that they play at the third slowest tempo in the league, so there are a fewer number of possessions in their games and thus fewer chances to score. Over the L5 games, the Thunder have defended well, allowing an average of just 103 PPG. Three of Denver’s last four games would have stayed Under tonight’s total as would have seven of the last nine Thunder games. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder |
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02-26-21 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 222 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
10* Under Blazers/Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers are really reeling right now as Anthony Davis is hurt and they’ve lost four in a row. It was pretty clear watching Wednesday’s 114-89 loss to the Jazz that LeBron James is being forced to shoulder too much of the load and is overextended right now. Wednesday was also the third time in the last four games that the Lakers failed to score 100 points. That’s just terrible. On the bright side, the team has still managed to retain the top spot in the defensive efficiency ratings. Portland is also on a losing streak (three games) and dealing with injuries. They’ve been without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for a while now. At first, they were making due. But it now seems as if the injuries to two of the team’s three best players are starting to catch up. A bad sign for the Blazers is that they have already suffered six 20+ point losses this season. Another is that they are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency rating. However, it was a close loss to Denver Tuesday night (111-106) and the game stayed Under. That’s the way I see this one going as well. Just too many injuries on both sides. The Lakers are probably getting Dennis Schroeder back, but by their own admission, the rotation is a mess right now. Portland actually held Denver to 42.6% shooting, a good sign. The Lakers are 3-0 Under this season when coming off a double digit loss and 9-1 Under when facing a team that has a winning record. The Blazers are 18-13 SU on the year. 10* Under Blazers/Lakers |
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