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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks -5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): With the Bucks leading 74-57 in the third quarter of Game 5, I was feeling pretty good about having laid the points. Then Kevin Durant struck. But as great as Durant was, that was a Milwaukee gag job. The Bucks now return home facing another potential early postseason exit. But I’m laying the points again. Brooklyn is 0-4 straight up in Milwaukee this season. Kyrie Irving is out. James Harden was ineffective Tuesday night. Durant, coming off perhaps his best game EVER, won’t be that good again. Lost in the virtuoso performance from Durant (1st player to EVER do 45-15-10 in a playoff game) is that Harden simply wasn’t very good in his surprise return to the lineup. He finished with just five points on 1 of 10 shooting, including 0 of 8 from three-point range. Both Durant and Harden played 46+ minutes with the former going the full 48. That was certainly a curious decision from HC Steve Nash. I understand leaving Durant in, given how hot he was. But playing a hobbled Harden that long seems unwise. Giannis Antetokounmpo was clearly outshined by Durant, but did turn in his third straight game with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds. He came up small down the stretch, but it shouldn’t have come to that as the Bucks were up double digits most of the game. At home, with the season on the line, the Bucks should start to see their shots falling more. They’ve averaged just 98.8 PPG this series, on 43% shooting. They averaged 120.1 PPG during the regular season. In particular, the three-point shots should start to fall. We started to see that in Game 5 (13 of 32) and I think it continues here. 10* Milwaukee |
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06-16-21 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 222 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Clippers/Jazz (10:05 ET): Just as they did in Round 1, the Clippers have successfully erased a 0-2 series deficit. Although this time, they did so at home as opposed to on the road. Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles saw the Clippers largely dominate throughout as they’ve now outscored the Jazz over the course of the four games. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have each gone for 30+ points in the L2 games. But will they be able to do so again now that the series moves back to Salt Lake City? I don’t think so. Donovan Mitchell, who has six straight 30+ point games for Utah, is also due to “cool off.” So I’m looking Under in Game 5. Note that I had the 1st half Over in Game 4, which cashed, but the full game total stayed Under - just barely (1.5 points). Three-point shooting was good - for both teams - in the games in Los Angeles. Both teams made over 40% of their threes with the Clippers making 46.5%. Those percentages should start to come down. We’re also coming off a game that had a series-high 64 free throws. The previous high was Game 1 with 50 FTs. So count on a reduction there for Game 5. Utah is 6-2 Under this season immediately following a double digit loss. That includes Game 4. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 6-1 Under following a double digit win. Again, Game 4 included. The Clippers are allowing just 107.4 PPG in the playoffs, which is basically right in line with their regular season average. Utah is much more sound defensively at home where they allow only 105.4 PPG. I think the vast majority of signs point to this game being lower-scoring than the last one, which means Under. 10* Under Clippers/Jazz |
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06-15-21 | Bucks -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series has changed dramatically over the past two games as we’ve gone from Brooklyn being up 2-0 to things being all squared away at two games apiece. Not only that, the Nets are now without the services of both James Harden (injured in Game 1) and Kyrie Irving (injured in Game 4). That changes the outlook on this Eastern Conference semifinal quite dramatically and oddsmakers now have the Bucks favored to take Game 5 in Brooklyn. I have no hesitation laying the points here as you have to remember that the Bucks actually went off as favorites here in Game 2 (when the Nets had Irving). Now Brooklyn dominated Game 2, making the line movement look foolish. But it’s a whole different ball game now without Harden and Irving. Truthfully, I thought Milwaukee might be the better team coming into this series. They held the Nets to 83 and 96 points the last two games and I certainly think they can do the job defensively on the road now that two of the Nets’ superstars are M.I.A. Remember that they led by as many as 21 in Game 3 and then pulled away in Game 4 once Irving went down. Kevin Durant is going to have to shoulder a huge load for Brooklyn tonight. The problem is he went only 9 for 25 from the floor in the last game as PJ Tucker did an excellent job of guarding him. No one besides Durant had more than 11 points for the Nets in Game 4 as they missed 23 of 33 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Milwaukee seems to have rediscovered its shooting touch after making 16 of 47 3PA in Game 4. Yet they still haven’t hit their season average of 38% in any game in this series. That has to be scary for Brooklyn, especially considering how Kris Middleton has been heating up. 10* Milwaukee |
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06-13-21 | Suns -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this Western Conference semifinal as the Suns have the injury-plagued Nuggets outgunned and outclassed. Phoenix can end this series tonight and in the process win their seventh consecutive game. Since being down 2-1 in the first round series vs. the Lakers, a switch has seemingly “flipped” with this young team that I still think is being underrated. They had the second most wins in the regular season and are 6-0 ATS during the current win streak. I’m laying the points as the Suns should finish off the sweep Sunday. Remember that the Suns’ rise began in LY’s bubble when they went a perfect 8-0. Including that, they are 66-22 their L88 games overall! Chris Paul has taken control in this series, leading victories by 17, 25 and 14 points. That’s an average margin of victory of nearly 19 PPG. Keep in mind they also closed out the Lakers series with a pair of double digit wins, one of them coming by 30 points. The last five wins have all been by 13 points or more. They are allowing just 98.9 PPG in the playoffs! Denver hasn’t lost four in a row at any point this season, but that’s about to change. MVP Nikola Jokic just isn’t getting much help in this series. This just isn’t the same team without Jamal Murray. Campazzo, Morris and Rivers all overperformed against Portland, but that’s a bad defensive team. The Suns are playing lockdown defense right now. Even the return of Will Barton hasn’t meant much to the Nuggets’ cause. Over the L6 games, Phoenix has not allowed more than 105 points. 10* Phoenix |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 229 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
8* Under Nets/Bucks (3:05 ET): All three games in this series have gone Under. I think it’s fair to call that “surprising,” given that these were the two highest scoring teams in the league during the regular season. Of course, that meant the oddsmakers were going to post high totals for this series. The O/U line closed 235.5 or higher for each of the three games so far. But the last one really stands out. Game 3 stayed Under by 66 points, a record for the last 30 years of NBA Playoff action. Will there be more scoring Sunday? Obviously. But I don’t think there will be 60+ more pts scored. Take the Under. Milwaukee will be looking to even the series here after winning Game 3 86-83. They just barely failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites, which was upsetting to me as I laid the points. It is interesting how the line has shifted for Game 4 with Milwaukee now an underdog at home. I think the concern for them has to be the fact that other than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, the rest of the team combined for 18 points and made just eight field goals in Game 3. Will that go up? Again, obviously. But the Bucks are also coming off B2B 86-point games. I just don’t see a “magic” return to the regular season average when so many players are shooting so poorly, especially from three-point range. Even Kevin Durant was only 11 of 28 from the floor in Game 3. Brooklyn is now 12-4 Under its L16 games against teams with winning records and all of them from here on out are going to fall into that situation. The most total points scored in any of the three games was 222 (Game 1) and that was with a blistering pace set in the first half. Again, I know the expectation is for a higher scoring game this afternoon, but making up the discrepancy between Game 3 and the O/U line here seems dicey. 8* Under Nets/Bucks |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): The Clippers are in an all-too familiar position here, that being down 0-2 in a best of seven series. The same thing happened in the first round against Dallas, although in that instance they lost the first two games at home. That series would become rather infamous for the road team capturing the first six games (1st time in NBA Playoff history). This one has been a bit more “traditional” with top seeded Utah winning the first two at home. The Clippers are now hoping it’s the home team that “rules the day” in Round 2 as the series shifts to Staples Center for the next two games. I’m laying the points in Game 3. The last time the Clips played at home, it was the most important game of the season - Game 7 vs. Dallas. I took them and they delivered a 126-111 victory. Both games in Salt Lake City were close as they were decided by three and six points. Despite being down by 21 in the second half Thursday, Ty Lue’s team did come back and even took a brief lead in the 4Q. They also were up by double digits for most of the first half in Game 1. Though 0-2 ATS so far in this round, home teams down 0-2 in the series are typically sound bets. It would be foolish to write off the Clippers here. Utah has won the first two games despite not having the services of Mike Conley. He’s questionable for tonight. On the road, Conley’s absence would loom larger. I seriously doubt the Jazz will shoot 55% again as they did in Game 2. They were also 20 of 39 (51.3%) from three-point range in Game 2. Again, the chances of replicating that kind of shooting on the road seem small. Donovan Mitchell HAS to cool off, right? I think it’s time for the Clippers to break out offensively in this one as their three-point shots will start to fall. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Nuggets (10:05 ET): Phoenix has looked dominant through two games of this series. They won by an average of 21 PPG and Chris Paul now looks totally fine after being hampered by a shoulder injury for much of the first round. Since falling behind the Lakers two games to one in the opening round, the Suns have won five in a row with the last four victories all coming by double digits. Right now, you have to consider them the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals. But the series is moving to Denver where the Nuggets averaged 115.1 PPG in the regular season. That’s well up from the 101.5 they averaged in the first two games. Take the Over. All five Suns’ starters have finished in double figures both games. Paul led the way in Game 2 with 17 points, 15 assists and zero turnovers. The team averaged 222.5 points in the first two games and is 31 for 72 from three-point range. They are 18-8 Over this season coming off a double digit win and 26-13 Over after scoring 115+ points in their previous game. While you might expect somewhat of a dropoff offensively on the road, Denver has given up 120.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Over is 6-2 in Nuggets’ playoff games as only one time have they allowed fewer than 115 points. Denver’s perceived poor effort in Game 2 led to HC Michael Malone blasting the team in the media. So expect an inspired effort as they face the potential for an 0-3 series hole. MVP Nikola Jokic has done his part, but is getting little in the way of help. At home, that should change. Will Barton is now back, having returned to the lineup in Game 2. All three of the Nuggets’ home playoff games have gone Over. They are 10-4 Over this season following a double digit loss. Though Game 2 stayed Under, scoring picked up a lot in the 2H and nearly sent the game Over. 10* Over Suns/Nuggets |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The story of the two games in Philadelphia was that each team was able to pick up a win following a hot start. I had the Hawks in Game 1 and they absolutely rolled (save for a shaky 4Q) thanks to a 42-point first quarter. I thought Game 2 was an obvious time to use the “zig zag theory” on Philadelphia and sure enough they jumped out to an early 18-point lead, held on, and won 118-102 victory as 6.5-point chalk. Now the series moves back to Atlanta - where the Hawks have won 13 in a row. I’ll “zig zag” again and take them as I’m surprised they opened as underdogs for Game 3. The loss of De’Andre Hunter (out for the season) is tough for Atlanta, but it’s not something they can’t overcome. Look for Trae Young to pick his shooting back up after a rare “off-night” in Game 2. After going for 35 points in Game 1, Young was held to only 21 in Game 2 and in particular, he struggled from three-point range by going just 1 for 7. The Hawks also seem to have a massive edge on the bench as their reserves have outscored their Sixers’ counterparts by almost a 2:1 margin through two games. And those two were played on the road. At home is typically where reserves play better. So expect the edge in bench points to be even bigger for Atlanta here. Joel Embiid has been great in the first two games, but remember he’s (theoretically) hobbled by a knee injury. The Sixers’ reserves had ZERO points in the 1H of Game 2 and aren’t likely to be bailed out by Shake Milton (14 pts in Gm 2) again. Let’s go back to something I said in the Game 1 analysis. Since Nate McMillan took over as HC, the Hawks have the best win percentage in the East, despite not always being fully healthy. Their last home loss was nearly two months ago. Philly has shot very well in the first two games (52%). Expect that to decline on the road. 8* Atlanta |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Through two games, things have not gone well for the Bucks. Ghosts of playoffs past seem to have reemerged as the team is shooting a woeful 29 percent from three-point range in the series. So much for that 1st round sweep of Miami convincing people (like myself) that this Bucks team would be different? Not so fast. The series now heads back to Milwaukee where there will be an obvious improvement in the Bucks’ shooting. As for Brooklyn, there’s just no way they can hope to maintain their current percentages of 55% overall, 44% from three and 88% from the FT line. Let’s not forget that sharp money was all over Milwaukee heading into Game 2. Said money turned out to not be so “sharp” as the Bucks were annihilated 125-86 as a 1.5-point favorite. They’d opened +2.5, so that line move was significant. I know Game 2 was a horrible performance, but it seems like we’re getting a discount here on the Bucks at home. This is a team that’s 28-10 SU on its home floor this season and averaging more than 120 PPG. Through two games, Milwaukee has been outscored by 66 points from behind the three-point line. That is simply not going to continue. They were one of the better 3-pt shooting teams in the regular season. Have we also forgotten about James Harden? He’s still out with a hamstring injury. I know Kevin Durant has been “out of his mind” and there’s only so much you can do to stop him. But on the road, I don’t think he’ll shoot 12 for 18 again like he did in Game 2. The triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James has given the Nets 79 points in the first two games. Role players tend to struggle more on the road, so their production should dip as well. This is basically “do or die” for Milwaukee as another loss would have them down 0-3 and the season would basically be over. Lay the points as I expect an inspired effort. 10* Milwaukee |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns OVER 222 | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Nuggets/Suns (9:35 ET): Early in the second half of Game 1, Phoenix looked to be in some trouble. They were down 10 and Chris Paul’s shoulder was seemingly an issue again. Then, out of nowhere, it wasn’t an issue any more. Paul’s shot making was the catalyst for a 34-9 Suns run that gave them a 122-105 win and cover (as six-point chalk) Monday night. I apologize to everyone that was with me on the Nuggets, but for 2.5 quarters they definitely looked like the right side. Nikola Jokic certainly picked a bad time to go cold, a day before winning the league’s MVP Award. I don’t think he’ll go 10 of 23 from the floor again in Game 2. Four Suns scored 20 or more points in Game 1. Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges joined Paul in the mix. The team shot 54% overall and finished with a playoff-high 122 points. But the Suns defense has been the real story as they are allowing just 98.6 points per game in the playoffs and 42.2% shooting. That is something I can’t see continuing. They were a good defensive team in the regular season, but even still they gave up an average of 108.5 PPG. Facing two banged up opponents thus far in the postseason has been a bit of a break. That being said, don’t be surprised if the Suns allow more than 109 points for the first time (in the playoffs) in Game 2. The Over is 23-10-1 in Phoenix’s last 34 games. Denver is now 7-1 Over in the playoffs. The last three times these teams have met, not surprisingly, the game has gone Over with 256, 232 and 227 total points scored. Denver is 21-8 Over following a SU loss, including 10-3 if it was by double digits. Like I said earlier, Jokic is very likely to shoot better tonight than he did in Game 1. The Nuggets average 115.4 PPG for the season. Look for their scoring to rise in Game 2 (they'll DEFINITELY attempt more than SIX free throws) while Phoenix likely comes close to matching their Game 1 output. 10* Over Nuggets/Suns |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -4 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:05 ET): The Clippers were good to me on Sunday (they were my 10* Game of the Week!) but I’ll gladly fade them here coming off the Game 7 victory. Yes, they went 3-0 SU/ATS on the road in the Dallas series. But winning at Salt Lake City will not be as easy. The top-seeded Jazz are not only rested (last played on 6/2), but they are 33-6 SU on their home court this season. They did drop Game 1 here to the Grizzlies, but that should only serve to have them MORE ready to go in the second round opener. They won the last four games of the Memphis series by an average of 11.25 points per game. Lay it! Keep in mind that Jazz PG Donovan Mitchell sat in Game 1 vs. Memphis. Upon returning to the lineup, he averaged 28.5 points and 5.8 assists per game. The team scored 120 or more in all four first round victories. As you might guess from a 33-6 SU record, this has been a dominant home team as they’ve won here by an average of nearly 13 PPG this season. In my first round analysis, I called the Clippers the #2 team in my power ratings, but guess who’s #1? I’m not here to say that the Clips don’t have a chance in this series; I just think it’s a terrible situation they’re facing here in Game 1 with the quick turnaround. Only five teams in NBA history have lost the first two games of a best of seven series at home and come back to win the series. The Clippers are the fifth. So they are definitely a bit lucky to be here. The league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season, they struggled from behind the arc in the first round.. But then they finally had a break out effort in Game 7. Not sure I see a carryover though as Utah keeps its opponents to 32.8% from three-point range here at home. The Jazz took two of three regular season meetings, are 9-3 ATS L12 vs. LA and 20-8-1 ATS L29 times hosting them. 8* Utah |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): I took the Hawks in Game 1, and while it definitely got a bit “dicey” at the end, I couldn’t have been more pleased with how things went. Trae Young and company jumped on the East’s #1 seed early with a 42 point first quarter. Atlanta led by 15 after 1Q, 20 at halftime and 16 after 3Q. But I’m not sure how anyone could bet the Hawks with any confidence in Game 2 based on how poorly they closed the game. Philadelphia, down 17 with 4:42 remaining, got within two in the final minute. I watched in horror as Atlanta displayed some of the worst late game execution that I have ever seen. As mentioned above, the Hawks started out hot w/ a 42-point first quarter. They made 14 of their first 18 shots. But gradually, the 76ers adjusted defensively and showed why they were the #2 ranked team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It was their defense, specifically trapping, that got them back into the game. They used their size advantage and I expect to see lots more of that in Game 2. Philly lost just one other game previous to Game 1 this postseason (Game 4 vs. Wizards) and I backed them off that loss. They delivered a 129-112 and improved to 9-2 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. The other big story for Game 1 is that Joel Embiid played. He was great with 39 points and nine rebonds, showing no real ill effects from the injury he suffered in Round 1. As a team, the Sixers actually shot better than the Hawks in Game 1, 54.9% to 51.2%. But Atlanta made twice as many threes (20 to 10) and Philly missed 11 free throws (Ben Simmons being the biggest offender). I don’t see the three-point discrepancy repeating itself here in Game 2. Atlanta got the win it needed and can head home (where they’ve won 11 in a row) with no worse than a split. Classic zig-zag play here as the end of Game 1 should carry over into Game 2. Lay the points. 10* Philadelphia |
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06-07-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Suns | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): It’s not that often you can say it’s “surprising” to see a 2-seed in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs. But that’s how I view the Suns, who got by the Lakers in six games. Maybe it was a mistake to underestimate Phoenix, although the Lakers came into the postseason still favored to make a repeat trip to the Finals. After three games, it very much looked like the Suns would be “one and done,” but give them credit for taking advantage of a banged up Lakers team and winning three straight. Now they face a Denver team that is also dealing with injuries, but has adjusted much better than LA did. The Nuggets also won their 1st round series 4-2. Even with Portland’s best player (Damian Lillard) “going off” on a consistent basis, the Nuggets were still able to get the job done. PG Jamal Murray’s season is over and Will Barton is expected to miss Game 1 tonight. But the likes of Michael Porter Jr stepped up big time against the Blazers with three games of 25+ points. Of course, you’ve got Nikola Jokic as well. He averaged 33.0-10.5-4.5 in the first round and 25.7-13.7-8.3 against Phoenix in the regular season. The Nuggets won twice here in Phoenix and the road team actually won/covered all three regular season matchups. Don’t forget about Chris Paul’s injury and its effect on the Suns. Through the first three games of the Lakers’ series, it looked as if Paul's injured shoulder was going to sink them. I’ve got these teams rated far closer than the spread indicates, even after factoring in a slight home court edge for Phoenix. The Suns, who like to play slow, aren’t going to hold the Nuggets under 100 points like they were able to do against the Lakers. I’m not sure they have an answer defensively for Jokic. Denver has already overcome Lillard, so Cory Booker doesn’t necessarily scare me here. Take the points. 10* Denver |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): On the Nets’ very first offensive possession of Game 1, James Harden went down with an injury. He immediately went back to the locker room, never returned and has already been ruled out for Game 2. For most teams, the loss of a player like Harden would be devastating. But Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined for 54 points. Then you had the likes of Joe Harris, Blake Griffin and Mike James combining for 49. The Nets ended up taking control of Game 1 in the second quarter and never looked back, winning 115-107 as 3.5-point chalk. They are 10-1 SU/ATS L11 games. I don’t think for a second that the triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James is giving Brooklyn almost 50 points again. Also concerning were the number of minutes logged by both Durant (40:06) and Irving (44:35) in Game 1. While the Nets are “used to” playing w/o Harden at this point, this is the playoffs and his absence is more significant. Harden missed 18 straight games from April 5th to May 11th and the team lost eight of those games. This is not a team I trust defensively and Milwaukee is going to shoot much better from 3-point range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. The Bucks also dominated the paint Saturday night, scoring 72 points. The Bucks did not shoot the ball well from 3-point range in Game 1 of the first round series against Miami. They missed 26 of 31 attempts. I immediately jumped on them for Game 2 and sure enough they shot 22 of 53 from behind the arc in a 132-98 blowout victory. Not saying it will be THAT easy tonight, but you can definitely count on improved 3-point shooting from Game 1 when they made just 6 of 30. This is a team that makes 38.3% of threes for the year. Eventually, the Bucks have to cover as underdogs (0-5 ATS this year). I think it happens Monday. Take the points. 8* Milwaukee |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | Top | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (3:35 ET): Led by Kawhi Leonard’s 45 points (tied a career playoff high), the Clippers forced a Game 7 with a 104-97 win (as three-point favorites) on Friday night. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info department, this is the first time in NBA Playoff history (excluding LY’s bubble - when there was no home court advantage) that the road team has captured the first six games of a series. The road team is 6-0 ATS as well. I just can’t see the streak reaching seven games though. I released a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER for Game 6 and they came through. Now look for the home team to finally win (and cover) a game. As I noted in my Game 6 analysis, LA has gone off as the favorite for every game in the series. The spread for Game 7 is roughly on par for what it was in Games 1, 2 and 5. While the Clippers lost all of those games, I still point to the fact they have outscored Dallas in the series - now by 21 points. Something that jumped out to me when analyzing Game 6 is that the Clippers have been the much better team on a per possession basis. Dallas has also seen its shooting decline dramatically the L3 games. They’ve been below 42% overall from the field each game w/ 3pt shooting really taking a tumble. The Clippers were the NBA’s #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season (41.1%) so it’s been surprising to see them down at 35% in this series. Still, I take it as a positive sign that they were able to win Game 6 despite shooting just 29.4% from behind the arc. They did take twice as many free throws compared to the Mavs and made 10 more. But Leonard was the key, not just offensively, but also at the defensive end when it came to stopping Luka Doncic. I think he’ll be the difference again Sunday. Lay the points as the home team is “due” to win (and cover) Game 7. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-06-21 | Hawks +3 v. 76ers | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:05 ET): The Hawks turned a lot of heads when it took just five games to eliminate the Knicks. Trae Young was most definitely the best player on either team in that first round series and if Joel Embiid (questionable for Game 1) remains out for the 76ers, then Young is probably going to be the best player on the floor in this second round series as well. Regarding Embiid, though the Sixers did win the clincher vs. Washington, they are just 10-11 SU this season w/o the MVP Finalist. I don’t think many realize just how good this Atlanta team has been since Nate McMillan took over. They are 27-11 SU. That win percentage (.711) is the best in the Eastern Conference during that time. Philadelphia, who finished first in the East, won at a .703 clip in that same stretch. The Hawks were not a healthy team in the regular season as players combined to miss 278 regular season, fourth most in the league and most of all playoff teams. But now they are pretty healthy. DeAndre Hunter did an excellent job at stopping Knicks’ leading scorer Julius Randle. Atlanta held the Knicks to 39.9% overall shooting and 97.0 PPG. It won’t be that easy here, but Philly isn’t going to be shooting 51.1% in this series as they did vs. the defensively inept Wizards. If Embiid is out for any length of time, another potential issue for the 76ers is that their defensive efficiency rating jumps to 114.8 with the other four starters on the floor. Just to give you an idea of how big of a jump that is, a 114.8 defensive efficiency rating would rank dead last in the NBA. Philadelphia actually finished second overall in defensive efficiency. Now they have to concern themselves with Young, who is averaging 29.2 PPG in the playoffs and went over 30 in all three road games. Even if Embiid does play, he won’t be 100 percent. Atlanta is a hot team that is much better than most realize. This spread speaks volumes. 8* Atlanta |
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06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 239.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Bucks/Nets (7:35 ET): This seems like it will be the “marquee” series in the second round of the NBA Playoffs as you’ve got the team that finished first in the Eastern Conference each of the L2 seasons (Milwaukee) taking on this year’s favorite to win the NBA Finals (Brooklyn). Neither team finished first in the East this season, but the winner of this series would be favored over the top seeded Sixers. The expectation is obviously for a high-scoring Game 1, but I think the total is too high here. Take the Under. The expectation for a high-scoring contest is not without merit here as these were the top two scoring offenses during the regular season. But even so, Brooklyn games “only” averaged 233.3 points per game while Milwaukee games were at 232.5 PPG. In the first round playoff series against Miami, the Bucks allowed an average of 98.0 PPG. While repeating that vs. the Nets will be next to impossible, the Bucks did hold the Heat below 40% shooting in the four-game sweep. Brooklyn is 2-0 Under this season when playing with three or more days rest. It’s been even longer since Milwaukee last took the court, exactly one week to be specific, so do not be surprised if they come out a bit “rusty” for Game 1. In the last round, both teams turned in their lowest scoring performances in Game 1. The Bucks-Heat game went to overtime and still ended up just 109-107. Brooklyn had to come from behind to beat Boston 104-93, which was both its lowest scoring game and best defensive effort of that series. 10* Under Bucks/Nets |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Unlike the previous two postseasons, Milwaukee seems to be a bit underrated. They surprisingly made quick work of Miami in Round 1, sweeping the four game series and winning the L3 games by a combined 80 points. As I was looking ahead to the potential for a second round series with the Nets (which has obviously become a reality), my hope was that the Bucks wouldn’t be quite as dominant as I didn’t want them being viewed as a public side here. They’re still underdogs though and I think a case can be made that they were better than Brooklyn in the regular season. Take the points. Much will be made of the fact Milwaukee has had a full week off between series. Rest or rust? While I can’t fully answer that question now, I do think it was a GOOD thing that the Bucks had time to “come down” from the Heat series where they were looking to avenge LY’s Eastern Conference Finals. When it comes to the rest vs. rust debate, I don’t think there’s any real advantage or disadvantage here as Brooklyn has also had three days off. Both teams are 2-0 SU this season on 3+ days rest. The three regular season meetings between these teams were decided by a total of 11 points (none by more than six), so taking the points here seems like a reasonable option. Milwaukee posted the better regular season net efficiency rating and point differential. Obviously, Brooklyn is a different team now with all three of its stars (Durant, Irving, Harden) all in action. The Bucks had the higher defensive efficiency rating, which I view as key this time of year, and don’t be surprised when their three-point shooting improves from the previous round. Even with the home court advantage, I don’t think that the Nets should be favored by this many points. 8* Milwaukee |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The road team is 5-0 in this series, a trend the Clippers certainly hope continues Friday as they look to stay alive in the best of seven series with Dallas. They’re now down three games to two after dropping Game 5 105-100 as 7.5-point chalk. Los Angeles has been favored in all five games and has actually outscored Dallas, so it has to be terribly disappointing for them to be down in the series. I considered the Clippers to be the #2 overall team in the NBA coming into the playoffs, so it’s hard for me to see them bowing out of the playoffs so early. Lay the points here in Game 6. You’d have to go back more than a quarter century, to 1995, to find the last time the first five games of a playoff series all went to the road team. So history is not on the Clippers side. But this is a team that’s 23-15 SU away from home this season. Meanwhile, Dallas’ home struggles are nothing new. While their YTD record here at the American Airlines Center is 21-17 SU, they are actually 15-23 against the spread and have been outscored. The last game here in Dallas saw the Clippers win by 25. They won Game 3 by 10 points while shooting 57.9% from the field. The Mavs’ overall shooting has come down the last two games. They made only 34.8%, including 5 of 30 from three-point range, in Game 4. Then it was 41.6% in Game 5, only for them to get bailed out by an incredible individual from Luka Doncic. The Clippers played one bad quarter on Wednesday, that being the third when they went 8 of 21. This was the #1 three-point shooting team in the league during the regular season and they had a higher defensive efficiency rating than Dallas in the regular season. They are actually scoring the third most points per possession in the playoffs. They are 8-2 ATS L10 in Dallas and I still believe they are the better team. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 208 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Suns/Lakers (10:35 ET): This has been a low-scoring series so far with four of the five games going Under and the one that went Over just barely crept past the total because of lots of free throws in the final two minutes. The five games have averaged just 199.2 points, yet the O/U lines have remained fairly consistent since Game 1. This is an elimination game for the Lakers, who were blown out in Game 5, 115-85. Game 2 (the lone Over of the series) is the only time in the series where the losing team scored 100 points. Gonna keep rolling with the Under, which I cashed in on back in Game 4. I’m 2 for 2 in this series, not only cashing the Under in Game 4 but the Lakers in Game 2. I do have to say that I’m surprised to see the Lakers down three games to two, especially considering they were seemingly in complete control following a 109-95 win in Game 3. But then Anthony Davis got hurt and nothing has been the same. In the six quarters they have been without Davis, the team has totaled only 127 points. That’s really bad. The most points the Lakers have scored in any game this series is 109. Three times they’ve been held below 100. Now one of the Suns’ key players (Chris Paul) is also injured, though he’s been playing through it. But Paul has obviously been ineffective, shooting just 40% in the series. The Lakers were the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season and before Game 5, Phoenix had yet top 102 points in any game in the series. So with Davis questionable to play in Game 6, the way the best chance for the Lakers to stay alive is their defense. They are 15-5 Under after allowing 115+ points this season and 29-9 Under vs. teams that are .500 or better. 8* Under Suns/Lakers |
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06-03-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -5 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers are both facing elimination and at home tonight, so I’ll lay the points in this “must-win” scenario. Game 5 of this series was an all-timer as it went to double overtime, but despite 55 points from Damian Lillard (made 12 threes!) the Blazers still lost the game 147-140. The “zig-zag theory” (simply take the ATS loser of the previous game) has been a fairly reliable 3-1 ATS so far in the series and you just get “the feeling” that these teams are destined for a Game 7. It’s impressive that Denver has the series lead here despite being without their two primary ballhandlers: Jamal Murray and Will Barton. Nikola Jokic is having himself quite the series, averaging 32.4 and 11.0 rebounds per game and he’s registered a double-double three times. But playing this game on the road, I don’t think the Nuggets can count on the kind of performances they got from Monte Morris (28 pts), Michael Porter Jr (26) and Austin Rivers (18) in Game 5. Going back to last season, Denver is 0-5 ATS when leading in a playoff series. Lillard’s teammates really let him down in the two overtime periods Monday as they shot a collective 1 for 19 from the floor. That’s atrocious. Similar to the regression I see happening with some of the Nuggets’ role players, I look for Portland’s (role players) to improve. Besides Lillard, the rest of the Blazers went 9 of 31 from three-point range in Game 5. This is a team that shoots 38.7% from behind the arc for the season. While a lot of that is Lillard, expect CJ McCollum to play a lot better here. 10* Portland |
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06-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz (9:35 ET): So the Over is 4-0 in this series. I had the Over in the last game and though it looked like a “surefire” winner after three quarters (score was 100-87 Utah), I had to end up “sweating things out” thanks to the Jazz going relatively cold in the fourth. Eventually though, the game did go Over as the Jazz prevailed 120-113 (total was 225.5) to take a 3-1 series lead. The West’s top seed has now taken the last three games after being upset here at home in Game 1. The oddsmakers keep moving up the O/U line and I think Game 5 is when we finally have an Under. The big difference in Game 4 was three-point shooting. Utah made 50% (17 of 34) while Memphis made 28.6% (10 of 35). Will we see those numbers even out a bit tonight? Probably. But I don’t see the Grizzlies improving that much being they’re on the road. They shot just below 35% from three-point range the first two games in Utah. This is not a particularly prolific three-point shooting team either. Of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, they have taken the fewest number of attempts from behind the arc. That’s right on par with the regular season when they were 25th (out of 30 teams) in # of three-point attempts. Utah leads the league in 3PA this season, but they are not likely to hit 50% again as they did in Game 4. Jordan Clarkson went 4 of 9 from deep in the last game en route to 24 points. He’d previously gone 3 of 21 on 3PA in this series. These are two top six teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It’s time we had an Under in this series. 10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz |
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06-02-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The 76ers failed in their first attempt to eliminate Washington, losing Game 4 by a score of 122-114 (as 8.5-point favorites). Even worse, Joel Embiid left Monday’s loss with a sore knee. Long-term, that is something definitely worth monitoring. Short-term, I still expect the Sixers to end this series in five games, even if Embiid does not play Wednesday. The Wizards’ overall fitness is not exactly 100 percent and they are 0-7 SU in the City of Brotherly Love the L3 seasons. Lay the points. In addition to the Embiid injury, it was one bad quarter that doomed Philly’s prospects on Monday. After they took an 11-point lead in the 1Q, things tightened up by halftime. Then they were outscored 32-19 in the 3Q, which is when the game - and the franchise’s chance at its first series sweep in 36 years - got away from them. It was during the 3Q that Washington chose to employ a “Hack-a-Ben” strategy, as in Ben Simmons, whose inability to hit free throws really cost the team. Simmons is a hideous 5 of 20 from the charity stripe in this series. It will be interesting to see if the Wizards continue to elect to send him to the line in this game. If they do, Simmons must make them pay. Let’s not forget that Washington was last in the league in the regular season in points allowed per game. They’ve been even worse in this series, allowing the 76ers to score an average 122.7 points in the four games. Russell Westbrook has played the L2 games, but is banged up, and Davis Bertans is now out for the rest of the series. That’s no matter as the Wizards’ season is going to end tonight as Philadelphia is a strong 8-2 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this season. Three-point shooting has been a massive problem for the Wiz in the L3 game, which is not a surprise as the Sixers were #2 in the league during the regular season in number of points allowed per possession. Vintage “zig zag theory” here. 8* Philadelphia |
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06-02-21 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 112-129 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
8* Under Wizards/Sixers (7:05 ET): I also like Game 5 to go Under the total. Yes, I know three of the first four games have gone Over the total. But Game 4 was the first time we didn’t see red-hot shooting from either side, even though three of the four quarters saw 59 or more total points scored. The Embiid injury is the big story. The 76ers shot just 41.7% in Game 4 compared to 58.6% in Game 3 and 55.7% in Game 2. While they figure to improve (from Game 4), with or without Embiid I don’t see them getting back to the level of Games 2 and 3. Washington has struggled with its three-point shooting all series. They did make 9 of 24, which is a reasonable percentage, in Game 4. But that was also after going 10 of 57 from behind the arc in the previous two games. Again, the Wizards’ struggles offensively shouldn’t be that surprising given Philly allowed the second fewest number of points per possession in the regular season. Russell Westbrook, hobbled by an ankle injury, has been an albatross when it comes to three-point shooting. He’s just 3 for 15 in the series. I also don’t expect the teams to combine for a somewhat preposterous 76 free throws in this game. That was the number in Game 4, a byproduct of Washington continually sending Ben Simmons to the line. In the previous three games, there were never more than 49 total free throws attempted. Even if the Wizards choose to keep sending Simmons to the line, I don’t see the same kind of productions from the charity stripe here. Washington made 33 FT’s in Game 4! That’s 13 more than they average per game for the season. 8* Under Wizards/Sixers |
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06-01-21 | Celtics v. Nets -12 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I went with the Nets in Game 4 and that turned out to be rather easy as they blew past the Celtics 141-126. It was the most points ever scored by the franchise in a playoff game as they torched Boston for 57.8% shooting, including 16 of 27 from three-point range. More importantly, the win puts Brooklyn on the cusp of advancing to the second round. It is certainly in their best interest to advance ASAP, given that Milwaukee swept Miami. I think it’s pretty clear that the Nets are the vastly superior team here and short of another 50-point game from Jayson Tatum, they should win big. Tatum did go for 40 in Game 4, but that wasn’t nearly enough as his teammates shot just 42.8% from the field. Tatum got nearly half his production from the foul line (17/17), which can’t be counted on when you’re on the road like Boston now is for Game 5. Making Tatum’s job even tougher here is that the Celtics are playing short-handed. Both Kemba Walker and Robert Williams III sat out Sunday and may be out again here. Even if one or both injured players were to suit up tonight, I don’t think it will matter much. Walker is shooting just 31.8% in the series. Williams averages only 6.3 points per game. Going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has won only three of its last 10 games. I did take them in Game 3 (winner!), figuring that would be their “best effort” of the series and it was. But they are clearly outclassed here as the Nets got 80+ points from Durant/Harden in Game 3, then 80+ from Durant/Irving in Game 4. Too many weapons. Brooklyn is averaging 123.5 PPG in the series and shooting 49.3% overall, 41.3% from three-point range and 92% from the FT. Boston is now 0-9 ATS in its L9 times when playing with just one day of rest. Look for this series to end tonight in blowout fashion. 8* Brooklyn |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies OVER 224.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): All three games in this series have gone Over with the last two seeing 270 and 232 combined points. There’s really no reason to expect there won’t be a lot of scoring tonight in Game 4. The last game saw Memphis shoot just 43% overall from the field and 31.7% from three. Yet they still scored 111 points. That’s slightly below their season average. You have to expect a little better offense from the home team in Game 4, especially since the Over is 7-0 the L7 times they’ve been a playoff underdog. Utah has to feel good about itself seeing as they won Game 3 by 10 points despite taking 19 fewer shot attempts. They were dominated on the offensive glass, 16-7, but Memphis only ended up making three more shots than the Jazz did. It’s something to watch here as the Grizzlies should be more efficient if they are able to control the glass again. It should be noted that Memphis is shooting a solid 47% for the series. Utah gives up 110.1 PPG on the road, up from 105.1 PPG allowed at home. But regardless of the fact Memphis is likely to improve at the offensive end tonight, the Jazz are going to “get theirs” too. They’ve averaged 123.7 PPG in the three games and they’ve made 19 three pointers in each of the last two games. They are above 45% from behind the arc in their two wins. The Over is 6-0 in Utah’s last six games as a playoff favorite. The Over is also 7-1 the last eight meetings between these teams. Only two of those eight meetings saw less than 230 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies |
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05-31-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 230 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under 76ers/Wizards (7:05 ET): It certainly appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this 76ers-Wizards series as top-seeded Philly looks to become the second team in the East (Milwaukee) to sweep their way into the second round. Truthfully, the Wizards didn’t stand much of a chance here with the 30th ranked (that’s last!) scoring defense in the NBA. But you would have hoped for a bit of a better effort in Game 3 on their home floor, especially since Russell Westbrook ended up playing. Instead, what Washington got was a 132-103 loss in Game 3. For the second straight game, Philadelphia shot the lights out. After making 55.7% of their field goal attempts in Game 2, they were at 58.6% in Game 3. They even made 17 of 33 attempts from three-point range, which was way up from the previous two games. In fact, the Sixers made just 19 threes COMBINED in Games 1 & 2. While Washington’s defense may not give you much confidence, expect the Sixers’ shooting to fall off a bit here in Game 4. It’s only natural. The Wizards’ shooting in the last two games has been less than desirable as they are just below 40% overall and a horrendous 10 of 57 from behind the three-point line. While there should be some expectation for improvement there, keep in mind that Philadelphia was #2 in the regular season in defensive efficiency and clearly is not having much difficulty stopping the Wiz in this series. They’ve allowed an average of just 105.3 PPG in the series and this is the highest O/U line yet. 10* Under 76ers/Wizards |
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05-30-21 | Nets -7 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets jumped out to a 19-4 lead on Friday and appeared well on their way to taking a 3-0 series lead. But Boston had the lead (33-32) by the end of the first quarter, something they would only briefly relinquish, and would end up winning 125-119 as seven-point underdogs. They were carried by Jayson Tatum’s 50 points. As someone who had the Celtics plus the points in Game 3, I loved it. But I also don’t think there’s any disputing who the stronger team is in this series. I’ll go with them (that being the Nets!) tonight in Game 4. Lay the points. Going into Game 3, Brooklyn was basically even money to sweep this series. So the odds are still strong that they’ll finish off the Celtics in five games instead of four. Boston simply shot the ball better in Game 3 (50.6%) than they did in either game at Brooklyn, led by Tatum’s incredible individual effort. If you were to take out the shooting of Kemba Walker and Romeo Langford, then the Celtics’ Game 3 shooting effort was downright insane. It’s something that won’t be repeated tonight in Game 4, even though they are still at home. Boston has not won B2B games in the month of May. Meanwhile, Brooklyn had won and covered seven straight before the Game 3 loss. An “off-night” was fairly predictable, which is why I took the Celtics in the last game, but so is the bounce back tonight. Outside of the “Big 3” (Durant, Harden, Irving), the rest of the Nets scored just 23 points on Friday. That number is going to go up here. The Nets were the NBA’s highest scoring team in the regular season and actually averaged more on the road than they did at home. This is the first time in the series with just one off day between games. Boston is 0-8 ATS its L8 games with just one day of rest. 10* Brooklyn |
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05-30-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 209.5 | Top | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Suns/Lakers (3:30 ET): The Lakers came into this series as the favorite, despite being the 7-seed, and have begun to assert themselves by winning the last two games. Keep in mind they’re not just the favorites to advance to the second round, they also have the shortest odds to win the Western Conference. Anthony Davis is listed as questionable to play in Game 4 Sunday (sprained knee), but has said there’s “no chance” he sits out. For Phoenix, Chris Paul is still dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of practice Saturday. He’s clearly not himself and thus the Suns have really struggled offensively in the series. I think those struggles continue here on Sunday. Take the Under. If not for some questionable fouling down the stretch in Game 2, it is likely that the Suns would have been held below 100 points in all three games of the series. They are averaging just 98.7 points in the three games with Game 2’s 102 being the high-water mark. Game 2 is the only one of the three to go Over, and again there was some foolish fouling by the Lakers near that end of that one that allowed it to go Over. We’ve yet to see a game with more than 211 total points scored in this series. Given that the Lakers are #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the low-scoring should not be all that surprising. Then you have to throw in the fact they are facing an opponent whose PG is clearly injured. Paul is averaging only 6.7 PPG on 38.1% shooting in the three games so far and the Suns’ offensive efficiency plummets with him on the court. There’s also now too much pressure on Devin Booker to score. The Lakers are the only team in the league who have gone Under more than 60% of the time and the Under is 27-9 when they face a team that has a winning record. 8* Under Suns/Lakers |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 228.5 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Same strategy here as last night’s winners on Boston and the Clippers. We’re taking the team down 0-2 and this one seems real similar to the Celtics play as the Wizards are at home and being largely “written off” in this series with the top seeded 76ers. Right now, the big story is the “iffy” status of Washington PG Russell Westbrook, who rolled his ankle in Game 2 and is listed as questionable for Game 3. But if there was ever a time to take the Wiz it would be here as you’ve got to figure we’re getting their best effort with the season on the line. Even if Westbrook does not play, the Wizards still have Bradley Beal, who was the league’s second leading scorer in the regular season. Westbrook or no Westbrook, Washington will definitely shoot better from three-point range here compared to the last game when they went a dismal 2 of 22 from downtown. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such poor three-point shooting, especially from a team that averages 116.5 PPG. As you’d expect, the Wizards’ scoring average jumps here at home (to 119.6 PPG) and the role players should universally benefit from being back in familiar surroundings. Washington has won its last four home games and the last time they played here (play-in game vs. Indiana), they scored 142 points. Philadelphia won’t shoot 55.7% from the floor again as they did in Game 2. They’ve now scored 120 or more in four straight games, going back to the end of the regular season. But all four games were at home. Their scoring drops pretty dramatically on the road where they average just 109.8 PPG (as opposed to 117.7 at home). While the Sixers are 31-7 SU at home this season, they are only 20-16 SU on the road. Washington has covered five straight times off an ATS loss and Philly is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. 8* Washington |
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05-29-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (4:05 ET): These teams have now played FOUR straight games, going back to the regular season finale. All four games have gone Over the total. Exceptional shooting - from one or both teams - has typically “ruled the day” every game. Game 3 of this first round series saw Denver make 20 of its 38 three-point attempts (52.6%) en route to a 120-115 victory. What was somewhat amazing about that win is that the Nuggets had 16 fewer shot attempts in the game. But the aforementioned 3-point shooting and a +14 edge in FT attempts (+11 in makes) gave the road team the victory and 2-1 series lead. I missed on the Under in Game 3, but will come back with it here. I don’t think Denver is going to shoot THAT well again from three-point range. Portland isn’t very good defensively, but even they are allowing just 37.4% shooting from three-point range for the season. Denver shoots 37.8% for the year. Overall, the Nuggets have shot 50% in the three games. I don’t think that can be sustained, especially on the road. Austin Rivers probably isn’t scoring 21 points again either. Portland shot 48% from three-point range in the first two games before “cooling off” and going just 14 of 45 in Game 3. Damian Lillard is averaging 37.7 PPG In this series, but his three-point shooting in particular cooled off considerably in the last game. He didn’t get much help either. You have to believe we’re due for a “lower-scoring game” in this series. This is Denver’s first 4-game Over streak since mid-January. For Portland, it’s just the third time this year they’ve gone Over in four straight. They’ve never gone Over in five straight games and neither has Denver. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): The biggest swing that we’ve seen so far in terms of series odds is from Clippers-Mavs. The Clippers, initially -400 to win this series, are now down 0-2 and listed at +220. That’ll happen when you lose twice at home. Only 6.3% of teams that have fallen behind 0-2 in a best of seven series have gone on to advance. That’s the situation the Clippers find themselves in now, but the deficit is far from insurmountable. After all, they’re actually favored to win Game 3 in Dallas where they are 6-2 ATS L8 visits. I’m laying the short number Friday in what is an obvious “must-win” situation. Now, as I’ve detailed many times before, “must win” does not necessarily mean “will win,” But you’ve got to think the Clippers will at least start to rectify this discrepancy we’ve seen behind the three-point line. In the first two games of the series, Dallas has made 50% of its 3PA (35 of 70). The Clippers are at 24 of 73 or 32.8%. This is awfully strange for LA, who led the league in three-point shooting percentage (41.4%) during the regular season. They scored 73 points in the first half of Game 2 … and still lost! That’s because Dallas shot 58.5% overall and made 18 threes. Not only do I expect the Clips’ three-point shooting to get better in Game 3, I expect the defense to improve as well. They were a top eight team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The good news is that after the last six times LA gave up 125+ points in a game, they came back and covered five times. They lost 127-121 in Game 2. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both doing their jobs; they just need their teammates to start stepping up. The All-Star duo has 118 combined points through two games. I just cannot see this Clippers team losing a fifth straight game outright as favorites. I had them #2 overall in my own personal power rankings, heading into the playoffs. 10* LA Clippers |
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05-28-21 | Nets v. Celtics +7.5 | Top | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:35 ET): It certainly FEELS as if everyone is writing off the Celtics at this point. In fact, the general consensus seems to be that they’re about to be swept by the Nets. But down 0-2 in the series and back at home, I anticipate their strongest effort coming in Game 3. Remember that they were ahead at the half, on the road, in Game 1. Yes, I’m well aware of the fact that Jaylen Brown is out for the season and Jayson Tatum had to leave the last game - a 130-108 loss - with an eye injury. But Tatum’s status was upgraded on Thursday and he will play. Meanwhile, the Nets are going to be without Jeff Green the rest of this series. Now obviously the Nets are relying heavily on their “Big 3” - Durant, Irving & Harden - who played a total of just nine games together in the regular season (202 total minutes). They haven’t had a problem so far in this series, particularly Game 2 when they shot much better than they did in Game 1. The team shot 52.3% and made 17 threes with the “Big 3” scoring a combined 61 points. But really the star of the game was Joe Harris, who made seven of those 17 threes himself and finished with a team-high 25 points. One thing’s for sure and that’s you shouldn’t expect a repeat performance from Harris, who had 16 points in the 1Q, helping the Nets get out to an early 14-point lead and 24-point lead by half. Boston has yet to defeat Brooklyn this season in five tries and four of those losses have been by double digits. But, again, if they were to win one it would likely be this game. Home teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series have been excellent bets through the years. In this instance, it looks like we’re getting some tremendous value as the Celtics closed +8 and +8.5 in the first two games and those were in Brooklyn. This will be the Nets’ first road game in 17 days. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS L28 as home underdogs. 8* Boston |
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05-27-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 228 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (10:05 ET): These teams have now played each other THREE straight games, starting with the regular season finale. That finale was won by Portland, 132-116, allowing them to secure the 6-seed and face Denver in this first round series. The Nuggets chose not to play their starters for most of that finale, perhaps hoping to avoid the Blazers, but they got them here anyway due to the 4th seeded Clippers also losing on the last day of the regular season. As for the two games that matter more, the Nuggets and Blazers are all tied in this series after Denver won big (128-109) in Gm 2. All three of these games have gone Over the total. I took the Nuggets in Game 2 partly because I expected them to rectify the discrepancy in three-point shooting we saw back in Game 1. That wound up happening, although Portland was still better from downtown - 48.5% to 42.9%. The Blazers are 35 of 73 (47.9%) from behind the arc in the two games, which is going to be a difficult percentage to maintain even as the series shifts to their home court. Damian Lillard made an incredible EIGHT three-pointers in the 1H alone in Game 2, which was a playoff record for a half and thus certainly isn’t going to be repeated. Though they struggled from downtown in Game 1, Denver is above 50% overall shooting for the series. Again, that’s going to be really hard to maintain. As you’d expect, the Nuggets’ scoring average dips by a few points when they’re on the road. Fortunately for them, they also allow slightly less PPG on the road. When it comes to stopping Lillard, Denver may have found an answer with Aaron Gordon, who defended the All-Star well in the 2H of Monday’s game. Unfortunately, with Will Barton still listed as “questionable” (as of press time), the Nuggets may still be w/o their two primary ball-handlers. The Under is on a 12-4 run in Denver playoff games when the series is tied (as it is here). Portland is 6-0 Under off their previous six double digit losses. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers |
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05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:05 ET): The Jazz shockingly went down in Game 1, 112-109 as eight-point favorites. But PG Donovan Mitchell is on track to play in Game 2 and I’m willing to bet that the #1 overall seed in the playoffs bounces back from an overall dreadful night of shooting. A team that usually makes 46.8% of its field goal attempts made only 42.0% in Game 1 and things were even uglier from three-point range where Utah shot only 25.5%. Again, this was a 52-win team in the regular season and Sunday was only the sixth loss at home all season. They are almost +13.0 PPG at home and only five times this year have they lost B2B games. Lay the points. I’m not sure Memphis can possibly expect things to go any better than they did in Game 1. At one point, they missed 14 consecutive shots yet still led at halftime. Utah went 12 of 47 from three-point range when they normally average 38.7%. The average number of threes per game that the Jazz hit is 17. Dillon Brooks had 31 points for the Grizzlies in Game 1, which is something I don’t see being repeated. Memphis has now won eight of nine, including three straight since the play-in round began. But those three wins were all by five points or less (total of 12 pts). Mitchell sitting out in Game 1 for the Jazz has been a big topic of conversation over the last 48 hours. His presence is key considering the team lost six of its last 16 regular season games without him. Mitchell largely outplayed Brooks in two head to head regular season meetings, scoring twice as many points while shooting a far higher percentage. The Jazz were +14 in FT makes in Game 1, but lost in large part due to taking 20 fewer FG attempts. Memphis had 16 offensive rebounds, an edge I don’t think they’ll have again in any game moving forward. The Grizzlies are just 2-7 ATS off their L9 ATS wins. 10* Utah |
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05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers were still listed as the favorites to win the Western Conference coming into the playoffs (despite being a 7-seed!), but Phoenix was listed as the fave for Game 1 of this series and certainly looked like the better team Sunday afternoon. The Suns won 99-90, holding the Lakers to less than a point per possession, which is an impressive defensive effort. LA shot just 43.4% as a team, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. LeBron had just 18 points (only 13 FG attempts) while Anthony Davis shot 5 of 16 and had a +/- of -18. I think the Lakers bounce back in Game 2. The big story to monitor is Chris Paul’s shoulder. If the Phoenix PG is hampered by it, then the Suns are in trouble. Remember that the Lakers did lose Game 1 in Round 1 last year and then went on to win the next four over Portland, not to mention the NBA Championship. Getting back to the apparent Paul injury, he was clearly bothered by it late in Game 1. That’s probably why the Lakers are now favored to take Game 2. Well, that and the fact it seems unlikely they would fall down 0-2 in the series. Classic zig-zag play on the Lakers here. Oddsmakers are just trying to “scare bettors off” by making them the favorite. Let’s not forget how it’s the Lakers that ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. I thought they did a pretty good job at that end of the floor in Game 1. They held the Suns 16 points below their season average. You’ve got to think the Lakers’ shooting will improve for Game 2. Meanwhile, the Paul injury could have a massive impact on the Suns offense. Obviously, you could say the same about James and the Lakers, but I’ve got more confidence in his ability to “play through it.” Look for him to go inside more often (took only four shots within 10 ft in Gm 1). 10* LA Lakers |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): Despite shooting 50% for the entire game, leading at halftime and playing at home, the Nuggets still found a way to lose Game 1 to the Blazers - by 14 points. How could that be? Well, it basically boils down to two things: the third quarter and three-point shooting. With the former, they got outscored 38-25 in the third, which was basically the difference in the game. With the latter, they shot just 11 of 36 from 3-point range (30.6%) while Portland was 19 of 40 (47.5%). I don’t think we’ll be seeing a discrepancy like that again in Game 2 and am going full “zig zag theory” on this one. Lay the points. For those that are unfamiliar, the famed “zig zag theory” is as simple as it gets. You just take the ATS loser of the previous game. With Denver, they obviously cannot afford to drop both home games. This is a team that generally shoots much better from three-point range than they did in Game 1. They are now 0-4 ATS this season head to head with the Blazers, which seems odd seeing as how they have the better overall record. I think the majority of signs point to a Denver bounce back in this game and I’m honestly shocked the spread is not higher. Portland did a pretty decent job at defending Nikola Jokic in Game 1, which sounds odd as he went for 34 points. But he had only one assist, a career-low for the playoffs. I know the Nuggets are missing both Jamal Murray and Will Barton, but I’d remain leery of a Portland team that finished the regular season only ahead of Sacramento in terms of most points allowed on a per possession basis. Denver has been outstanding this season when seeking revenge for a home loss, going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. They are also 11-2 ATS the L3 years when trailing in a playoff series. 10* Denver |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 109-128 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
8* Under Blazers/Nuggets (10:05 ET): I also like the Under in Game 2 as neither team is likely to shoot as well as they did in Game 1, in particular Portland when it comes to three pointers. Something I failed to mention in the other writeup is that Denver attempted only eight free throws in Game 1 (made just four!). Expect more production there. That may sound like an odd way to begin a writeup on the Under, but while the Nuggets are likely to be more productive from the charity stripe in this game, their overall FG% is likely to fall. As I said in the other writeup, they are without primary ballhandlers Murray and Barton. But the fortunate thing for Denver is that Portland isn’t going to be as hot from three-point range as they were in Game 1. The Blazers made 19 threes in Game 1 and shot 47.5% from behind the arc. Those numbers are well above their season averages. Another reason to like the Under is that Denver plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire NBA. They are bottom five in adjusted tempo. Only the Clippers, Heat and Knicks average a fewer number of possessions per game. 8* Under Blazers/Nuggets |
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05-24-21 | Heat v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 98-132 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): For awhile there in Game 1, the Bucks had to be having flashbacks to LY’s Eastern Conference Semifinals as they were having all sorts of problems scoring against Miami. But thanks to Kris Middleton, who hit the GW in OT, the Bucks did win Game 1, 109-107. Winning a game where you shoot a horrendous 5 of 31 from three-point range is pretty huge in my book. You have to think that the Bucks, who were 4th in the league during the regular season in 3-point shooting (38.9%), will do better from distance in Game 2. Because of that, I’m laying the number tonight. Conversely, Miami should NOT feel good about losing Game 1. They made a franchise record 20 three-pointers (on 50 attempts!), meaning they outscored Milwaukee by 45 from behind the arc and still didn’t win. Also, hitting 20 threes and still only scoring 107 points (with overtime!) is pretty dreadful when you think about it. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both struggled as they combined to go 8 of 37 from the field. As a team, the Heat made just 32.7% of their two-point attempts. They did cover, but just for the third time in their last 10 tries as a road underdog. The previous two seasons saw Milwaukee come into the playoffs with the best regular season record in the league. They “flamed out” both times, losing in the Eastern Conference Finals to Toronto two years ago and then Miami in the semis last fall. This year’s team “only” finished third in the Eastern Conference standings, but I feel they’re a much better value vis a vis the rest of the field, at least compared to the L2 years. The Heat made a somewhat improbable playoff run in a “bubble” LY, but now the Bucks have home court advantage and I like them to go up 2-0 in the series. 8* Milwaukee |
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05-23-21 | Hawks +1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 107-105 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): I don’t think many could have predicted that the Knicks, who finished 21-45 SU in LY’s abbreviated regular season and thus weren’t even invited to the bubble, would have home court advantage for a first round playoff series. Then again, Atlanta is another team that went from “not being good enough for the bubble” to the playoffs this season. Two of the league’s most improved teams square off here in this first round series and I like the Hawks to take Game 1. Take the points. New York’s massive jump in the standings this season was largely a byproduct of their defense, which gave up a league-low 104.7 PPG in the regular season. The team also covered at a shocking rate, going 45-25-2 ATS, the best such mark in the league. There is no doubt that MSG, which will be near full capacity (15,000 fans), should be rocking Sunday night as it’s been a long time since the “World’s Most Famous Arena” hosted a playoff basketball game. But the Knicks feel like a very “public” side here and it’s rather curious the line is so short. Personally, I’m not shocked as I view these teams as being pretty even. The reason the Knicks have home court advantage for this series is because they went 3-0 head to head with the Hawks in the regular season. I don’t think NY has any distinct matchup advantage, so Atlanta is due to break through with a victory here. The Hawks led two of those three games at the half, so it’s not as if they played poorly. Since Nate McMillan took over as the interim HC, the Hawks are 27-11 SU. New York was pretty fortunate in close games down the stretch and I see things likely to go “the other way” for them here. 10* Atlanta |
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05-22-21 | Celtics +8 v. Nets | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:05 ET): The Nets are reportedly attracting plenty of action to win the NBA Finals. With the trio of Durant, Irving and Harden, it’s easy to see why they’d be so attractive to the public. But I am far less sold on this team’s championship prospects - at least in year one together. In the past, we’ve seen “super teams” (like the Heat in 2010) fail to meet their championship goal in their first season together. With this one, the three stars have spent a very limited amount of time on the court together (9 games, 202 total minutes). I’ll take the points with Boston in Game 1. The Celtics won the play-in game vs. Washington to become the #1 seed. They controlled most of the way and really took control in the third quarter where they outscored the Wizards 38-26. It ended up being a 118-100 final with Jayson Tatum’s 50 points leading the way. It will obviously be nowhere near that easy in this series, but Boston didn’t even shoot 40% on Tuesday and still won comfortably. It was that kind of mentality that led me to (successfully) take Memphis last night. Boston has covered its last three games. Brooklyn is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run. So something will have to give at the betting window tonight. With these teams being division rivals, there’s a sense of familiarity and typically the underdog (especially when getting this many points) is the way to go in such matchups. Now the Celtics did lose all three regular season meetings and are 0-5 SU/ATS L5 trips to Brooklyn. But HC Brad Stevens is 7-1 ATS his L8 first round playoff games and the Celtics are 6-1 ATS L7 as road dogs. 8* Boston |
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05-22-21 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 229 | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Celtics/Nets (8:05 ET): The Nets are reportedly attracting plenty of action to win the NBA Finals. With the trio of Durant, Irving and Harden, it’s easy to see why they’d be so attractive to the public. But that trio has played just nine games together all season (only 202 total minutes) and I’m a little bit less sold on them championship prospects than others are. But there is no denying that - no matter who Brooklyn has on the court - they are likely to score lots of points. They finished second in scoring in the regular season with 118.6 points per game. I look for Game 1 vs. Boston to go Over the total. The Celtics didn’t shoot particularly well in the play-in win over Washington, but they still scored 118 points, led by Jayson Tatum’s 50. They made slightly less than 40% of their total field goal attempts and were 33% from three-point range. They did put up a ton of threes (45) and I expect a high volume again tonight. Overall, I think the team will shoot better than they did Tuesday night. But they certainly can’t count on Brooklyn going 3 for 21 from three-point range like the Wizards did. There is no doubt that Boston will give up more than 100 points here. The three regular season meetings between the teams all stayed Under. One of them did see 230 total points and Brooklyn scored 123 and 121 win the first two. It was a bad shooting night for both teams when they met last month.I am anticipating both teams scoring at least 115 tonight. The Over is 7-3 in Brooklyn’s L10 home games. One of the three Unders came when neither Durant nor Harden suited up. 10* Over Celtics/Nets |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:05 ET): That the Grizzlies were able to still win on Wednesday, despite it being a poor offensive night, is probably a good thing. They did jump out to a commanding 38-19 lead after one quarter. But from there, they scored just 62 points over the final three quarters with 28 of those coming in the fourth as they held on for the 100-96 victory. They shot just 7 of 22 from three-point range and were an ugly 54.2% from the FT line. I say it’s “probably a good thing” (that they shot poorly and still won) because it’s highly unlikely they’ll shoot that poorly again tonight vs. Golden State. The Warriors obviously lost on Wednesday, 103-100 to the Lakers, thus setting up this winner take all game. It wasn’t a particularly great shooting game for Golden State either on Wednesday, outside of Steph Curry. Curry had 37 points on 12 of 23 attempts, including 6 of 9 from three. But he had only one teammate score more than 10 points. Yes, it’s likely that Golden State’s “other players” will contribute more now that they’re at home. But might Curry be a different story? Everyone remembers him dropping 46 on the Grizz in Sunday’s regular season finale. But it was somewhat inefficient in doing so, needing 36 shots and he took a season-high 22 3PA. Memphis isn’t going to shoot as poorly tonight as they did Sunday nor as poorly as they did on Wednesday. They average 116.6 PPG on the road, which is significantly more than they average at home (109.8). I think most people are going to see Steph Curry and the Warriors laying short number at home and jump all over it. So the Warriors will be a very “public play” tonight (especially with this being the lone game). But I see these teams as being pretty even and the Grizzlies actually posted the higher offensive efficiency rating in the regular season. Memphis is 9-2 ATS L11 as a dog. 8* Memphis |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors (9:05 ET): That the Grizzlies were able to still win on Wednesday, despite it being a poor offensive night, is probably a good thing. They did jump out to a commanding 38-19 lead after one quarter. But from there, they scored just 62 points over the final three quarters with 28 of those coming in the fourth as they held on for the 100-96 victory. They shot just 7 of 22 from three-point range and were an ugly 54.2% from the FT line. I say it’s “probably a good thing” (that they shot poorly and still won) because it’s highly unlikely they’ll shoot that poorly again tonight vs. Golden State. At the same time, the Grizzlies can’t count on the opposition shooting 35.1% again like the Spurs did Wednesday. San Antonio made just eight three-pointers and was actually just 26 of 75 on two-point attempts, which works out to a horrendous 34.6%. I can’t see a Steph Curry-led team shooting that poorly, especially considering Curry went for 46 when these teams just met on Sunday. As a team, the Warriors shot almost 50% and made 15 three-pointers. Curry didn’t get much help in Wednesday’s loss to the Lakers, but LA is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, so I wasn’t surprised about that. So look for BOTH teams to improve upon their respective shooting efforts from Wednesday night. All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, but none featured less than 214 total points and Memphis shot poorly in two of the games. Sunday, they were 43.5% overall and 6 of 25 (24%) from 3-point range. They’ll easily best those numbers here. Memphis actually averages more PPG on the road (116.6) than at home (109.8) and Golden State averages far more at home (116.4) than on the road (110.7). So expect it to be a pretty-high scoring game Friday night. 10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors |
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05-20-21 | Pacers +3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 115-142 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* Indiana (8:05 ET): Four games into the NBA’s new “Play In Tournament,” the home team has yet to lose. However, despite the way the regular season series went down, I believe Indiana has a great shot at changing that here against Washington. Yes, the Wizards won all three regular season meetings and had a strong close to their regular season. But Indiana has now covered five straight games and obviously looked far more impressive Tuesday night. Take the points in this one. The Wizards are 15-6 their L21 games, but picked a poor time to play their worst game in over a month. They lost by 18 in Boston Tuesday, a game which could have gotten them into the playoffs as the 7-seed. Now they get a second try and can be the 8-seed, but despite the strong finish to the regular season, I have my concerns. This is the worst defensive team in the entire NBA, at least in terms of points allowed per game. They also have a negative net efficiency rating as they are outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Based on that, I’m not sure they should be the favorites tonight, even with the home court advantage. Indiana has a positive net efficiency rating and obviously looked great on Tuesday, shooting 55.2% from the field on their way to an easy 144-117 beatdown of Charlotte. While they did lose every regular season matchup with the Wizards, the Pacers still ended up averaging 132.3 points in the three games. Now the flip side of that is they obviously played terrible defense. But I have no doubt that they will score a ton of points tonight. Two of the three regular season losses were close, one of them went to OT. Indiana actually has a better record on the road (21-15 SU) than at home. 10* Indiana |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): Given that the Lakers are still listed as the odds on favorite to win the Western Conference, it seems highly unlikely that they would fail to make it out of the NBA’s first ever “play-in tournament.” Then again, it’s pretty remarkable that the defending NBA Champs are even involved in this. But injuries to both LeBron James and Anthony Davis really derailed this team’s regular season and they fell all the way to 7th in the Western Conference. All things considered, it’s really an incredible matchup we have here with the reigning champs taking on the former three-time champion Warriors. Golden State, as was expected, improved dramatically from LY’s disastrous 15-win campaign. Steph Curry (injured most of last season) being back was responsible for most of that improvement as the former MVP led the league in scoring at 32 points per game. But let’s be clear that this is not the “same old Warriors team” of a few seasons ago. Believe it or not, they were only favored in 31 of their 72 regular season games. So they actually “overachieved” in getting to 39-33 SU. They were pretty good at home (25-11 SU, 23-13 ATS), but the road was a different story as their record was 14-22 SU and ATS. Bettors seemed to think that this spread opened too high, but I now see a pretty substantial discount on the Lakers here. If anything, Golden State figures to be a pretty public dog Wednesday night. It’s rare that the public isn’t siding with LeBron, but it’s the case here. Not only are James and Davis back, but so too is Dennis Schroeder. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and I view this as the ultimate “buy low” spot. Kelly Oubre Jr is out for Golden State. The Lakers won the season series 2-1 with the wins coming by 31 and 26 points. The one loss saw them ahead by 14 going into the 4Q. 8* LA Lakers |
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05-19-21 | Spurs v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 96-100 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
10* Memphis (7:35 ET): San Antonio is NOT a team I see winning in this play-in tournament. There was a five-game gap between them and 9th place Grizzlies, which is larger than the gap between 7th and 10th in the Eastern Conference. I thought the Spurs were a weaker team than New Orleans, who didn’t even make the play-in tourney. Greg Popovich’s team did not have a good close to the regular season, losing the last four games as well as 10 of the last 12. Five of those were double digit defeats, three of them by 22+ points. Memphis lost the regular season finale, 113-101 at Golden State, denying them an opportunity to take on the Lakers for the right to be the 7-seed. Though beating the Lakers was probably unlikely, it still would have been an easier path to the playoffs for the Grizzlies as they’d have two chances. Now they must win here just to earn the right to face the Lakers/Warriors loser for the 8-seed. While the road team took all three regular season matchups between San Antonio & Memphis, the Grizzlies will be glad to get this one at home where they’ve won four in a row. They’d won five straight overall before the loss to Golden State. They are simply better at both ends of the floor than the Spurs, who have posted B2B losing season for the first time since the mid-1980s. Following a DD loss, the Grizzlies have gone 15-5 ATS this season (it was 113-101 at Golden State). The Spurs have lost 14 of 17 to teams with a better than .500 record and have let four of their last five opponents shoot 50% or better from the field. Memphis has let only four of its last 19 shoot that well. 10* Memphis |
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05-18-21 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 232.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
10* Over Wizards/Celtics (9:05 ET): The winner of this play-in game automatically becomes the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. Certainly, recent form has been quite different for the Wizards and Celtics. Washington stormed its way into the playoffs by winning 15 of its last 20 games and the five losses were all by four points or less, three of them by exactly one point. Meanwhile, Boston lost Jaylen Brown for the season and limped to the finish with losses in five of their last six games. On the whole, the Celtics definitely had a better regular season. But there’s no denying the Wiz are the “hotter” team entering this game. What I anticipate Tuesday night is a high-scoring game. Washington plays at the fastest tempo in the entire league and despite the late season surge, they still allow the most points per game (118.5) in the league. You’d have to go back to April 10th to find the last time they didn’t score at least 115 themselves in a game. They’ve also allowed 120+ in seven of their last nine games. Before going Under in the final three regular season games, the Wizards had gone Over six straight times. Boston is also on a three-game Under streak, but was 8-1 Over the previous nine games. All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, which is surprising to me. Looking back, the Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings, even more surprising. But tonight should snap that streak as I anticipate both teams to shoot better than they did in any of those aforementioned matchups. Neither team has shot 50% or better in any of those L5 meetings with the three-point shooting generally being not good. That’s uncharacteristic for both sides. The Over is 6-0 in the L6 Boston home games. 10* Over Wizards/Celtics |
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05-16-21 | Hornets +6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (1:05 ET): Both of these teams will be in the Play-In Tournament, which begins Tuesday. It’s just a matter of which seed they end up with and who they’ll face. It could end up with them facing one another again. This game will go a long way in determining the East’s 8-10 seeds. Both Charlotte and Washington are 33-38 SU entering the final day of the regular season. So is Indiana, who plays Toronto Sunday. The winner of this game is guaranteed the 8-seed, which is huge as it means that the team would only need to beat Boston (easier said than done) to get into “the normal playoffs.” The loser of this game finishes either 9th or 10th in the East, depending on what happens in that Pacers-Raptors games. That means whoever loses here would not only have to beat the Pacers (possibly on the road), but then also the loser of the Celtics vs. #8 seed game, just to get into the playoffs. Got all that? The bottom line is that this is one of the more important games on Sunday’s slate. Charlotte is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Washington this season (both wins by double digits), but has been fading badly down the stretch. Yesterday’s overtime loss to the Knicks was the Hornets’ fourth straight. Meanwhile, the Wizards have been surging with a 14-5 SU record the L19 games including a 15-point victory over Cleveland on Friday. All five losses since April 12th have been by four points or less. But I think this team has been playing “over its head” and it’s difficult to look past the fact they allow the most PPG in the league. They may also not have leading scorer Bradley Beal today. Charlotte got back Miles Bridges yesterday and he scored 30 in his return from quarantine. I think this is too many points. 10* Charlotte |
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05-15-21 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 232 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under Heat/Bucks (8:05 ET): When Miami beat Philadelphia 104-96 Thursday night, it snapped a 10-game Over streak. Considering that the Heat are only 25th in the league in scoring, it sure was strange to see them go on such a run of Overs. But of course the totals for the vast majority of those games were fairly low. Facing Milwaukee Saturday night, the Heat will see their highest O/U line in well over three months. With the exception of two games vs. Brooklyn in January, this will likely close as the highest O/U for any Miami game all season. Now a high total here shouldn’t be that surprising as Milwaukee is the league’s highest scoring team. But even for them, the amount of scoring in recent games has gotten a bit “out of hand.” The Bucks’ last five contests have averaged more than 260 PPG! There’s a bit of a “course correction” that’s due to take place here and with Giannis Antetokounmpo likely to see reduced minutes Saturday (he played only 35 minutes Thursday), this seems like the “right time” for it. The Bucks shot 57.4% against the defensively challenged Pacers in the last game. That won’t be repeated tonight against a Heat team that just held the #1 team in the East below triple digits. Even with the game vs. the Sixers on Thursday staying well Under the total, Miami’s last five contests have averaged WAY more points than is per usual for them. They’ve shot nearly 53% from the floor the L5 games, so they are also bound to “cool off” at the offensive end. These are two of the top 10 teams in the league in defensive efficiency and the Heat play at a bottom five tempo. 10* Under Heat/Bucks |
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05-13-21 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 227.5 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Magic/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta is now guaranteed a top six finish in the East after outlasting Washington in each of the last two games. A top six finish is nice as it allows the Hawks to avoid the play-in tournament. But they want to be 4th and have home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. While this has been an interesting season (to say the least), Atlanta is 23-11 SU on its home floor where it’s won nine in a row. So getting the home court advantage would be a big deal to them. The final two games (both at home) vs. Orlando and then Houston look to be pretty easy. Orlando is absolutely NOT going to the playoffs as they’ve been near the bottom of the Eastern Conference most of the season. They actually own the worst point differential in the East as they are getting outscored by 8.8 points per game this year. Coming into tonight, they’ve lost four in a row - all by double digits - and are now 21-48 SU this season. The Magic’s big problem is they just can’t score. They average only 104.1 PPG, second fewest in the league, and in those four straight DD losses they’ve never shot better than 41.8% from the field. Three of the four games have seen them score 102 pts or less. After coming back from a 13-point 4Q deficit last night, Atlanta may be a bit drained on the offensive end. The L5 games have seen them average 125.8 PPG, which is well above their season average. Keep in mind they just got done facing the league’s worst scoring defense (Wizards) B2B times. The Under is 8-3 in division games for Atlanta as they give up only 105.1 PPG and score only 109.4. It was 112-96 the last time these teams played and the total was much lower. 10* Under Magic/Hawks |
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05-13-21 | Spurs +5 v. Knicks | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (7:35 ET): Last night, the Spurs failed to clinch the final spot in the Western Conference’s “play-in tournament” as they lost 128-116 at Brooklyn. It was a game they never led and trailed by double digits most of the way. With their two final regular season games both coming against high-flying Phoenix, San Antonio could badly use a win here so that they don’t have to worry about beating the Suns. I know that it’s the second game of a back to back, but their opponents are returning home after a long West Coast swing, so there’s no situational advantage in terms of scheduling. Take the points. The Knicks are the league’s biggest surprise this season as they have clinched a top six spot in the East and could finish as high as fourth. To the point they’ve been surprising, no team in the league has a better ATS record than New York’s 44-23-2. They are covering games at a near historic pace, but I think the oddsmakers are eventually going to “catch up with them.” This is a team that has been an underdog in two-thirds of its games including each of the last five. After a series of high-profile non-conference clashes vs. the likes of the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets and Suns, this could be letdown territory for the favorite. The Knicks-Lakers game on Monday saw 22 lead changes and went to OT. The Knicks lost 101-99 as they shot below 40% overall. Over the L4 games, the Knicks have not broken 106 points. San Antonio is just two games removed from a shocking 146-125 win over Milwaukee and while they lost at Brooklyn last night, the Spurs are a better team on the road with a 19-16 SU record. The Knicks could be playing short-handed tonight as four players are listed as questionable on the injury report. 8* San Antonio |
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05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): Here’s a stat for you: five of Washington’s last six games have been decided by two points or less! Four of them have been decided by one point! They are 2-2 SU in the four one-point games, including a 125-124 loss here in Atlanta on Monday. I thought the Wizards were a bit lucky to make a game of it, though I may be biased considering I laid the points with the Hawks, who had a 17-point lead going into the fourth quarter. The Wiz didn’t have Bradley Beal in the lineup Monday and he’s out again tonight. Missing the NBA’s second leading scorer is significant and I don’t see the road team being so “lucky” this time. By going 15-5 SU in its last 20 games, Washington is likely going to make the playoffs. But only three teams in the entire Eastern Conference have a worse YTD point differential and those are Detroit, Cleveland and Orlando. Defensively, the Wizards are very bad as they are giving up an average of 132.4 points the last five games. Granted, two of the games went to OT, but there’s been just one time in the L6 games that they did NOT give up at least 124 in regulation. They are dead last in the entire NBA in points allowed per game. I can’t see Washington shooting better than 50% overall - and from three-point range - again like they did Monday. Not with Beal out of the lineup. This opens the door for the Hawks to win their ninth in a row at home. Before beating Washington Monday, the previous six home wins had all been by at least seven points. The Hawks fell victim to a 45-point 4Q on Monday, something I certainly don’t see repeating itself here. Look for the home team to win big. 10* Atlanta |
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05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Over Nets/Bulls (8:05 ET): Last time out, the Nets snapped a season-worst four game losing streak with a come from behind effort in Denver. They won 125-119 as 3.5-point chalk and were my 10* Game of the Week. In the analysis for that pick, I talked about how strange it was to see Brooklyn not only on a four-game SU losing streak, but also a 4-game Under run. Well, both of those streaks are over now as they look to solidify their status as a top two team in the East and possibly catch Philadelphia for home court advantage. Chicago’s last seven games have been a bit strange in that the losing team has been held below 100 points in every game. The Bulls were the losers in the first four of those seven games, but have since turned it around with a three-game win streak as they hope to keep their fleeting playoff hopes alive. They trail 10th place Washington by 2.5 games for the last spot in the “play-in” tournament with four games to go. The problem is the Bulls have yet to win more than three in a row this season. They are 0-3 SU/ATS when off three consecutive wins in 2020-21. I like this to turn into a really high-scoring game. Even without James Harden, we know what the Nets can do offensively. They are second in the league at 118.6 PPG. They shot a blistering 62.1% against Denver Saturday night. Chicago now has both leading scorer Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup and as a result the team scored 120+ in recent wins over Charlotte and Boston. They also shot 51.2% against Detroit Sunday. The Bulls are 7-0 Under the L7 games, but the opponent they are facing tonight is likely to end that streak. 10* Over Nets/Bulls |
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05-11-21 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
8* Under Heat/Celtics (7:35 ET): These teams just met Sunday here in Boston with the Heat emerging victorious in a wild 130-124 game. Miami jumped out to a huge 79-53 lead as they were shooting better than 65% from the field at that point. However, with a 40-point fourth quarter, the Celtics almost pulled off what would have been a second improbable comeback in the L10 days. (Remember they came back from 32 down to beat the Spurs 143-140 on April 30th. I don’t think this immediate rematch will turn out nearly as high scoring and thus Under is the call Tuesday night on TNT. The game Sunday saw great shooting from both sides. Miami finished the game at 57.3% overall, including 16 of 35 from behind the three-point line. Boston was at 54.2%. The teams also combined to go 40 of 47 from the FT line as the game went Over by more than 30 points. The Heat are now 9-0 Over their L9 games while the Celtics are 7-1 Over their last eight. But can this continue? The last five games have seen Miami score 121.8 PPG, which is well above their season average of 107.6. Same thing for Boston, who is averaging 123.4 PPG their last five contests as opposed to 112.9 for the year. These teams faced off in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals and almost every game went Over. So I am definitely bucking not only recent history, but head to head history as well. However, this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for any Miami game in the last two months. It’s also much higher than any of the O/U lines from LY’s ECF. Boston doesn’t have Jaylen Brown anymore and Evan Fournier isn’t likely to continue his recent hot shooting. Sunday was the Heat’s second highest scoring game of the season. 8* Under Heat/Celtics |
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05-10-21 | Rockets v. Blazers -14.5 | Top | 129-140 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:10 ET): It’s a lot of points to lay with Portland tonight, but they are taking on a very bad team that will be playing its third difficult road game in four nights. Houston is last in the NBA with a 16-52 SU record and has lost five in a row, Their last two losses came Friday in Milwaukee and Saturday in Utah. They actually covered both spreads, but with nothing left to play for - and the season winding down - you’ve got to wonder what (if anything) they’ve got left in the tank. Plus, Portland has played REALLY well of late, winning seven of eight. Six of those seven wins have been by double digits. These teams have met twice before this season and both games were close, decided by three points or less. Houston won one of them, but that was at home. It’s also important to note that both prior meetings occurred before “the bottom dropped out” in Houston after the James Harden trade. They were 8-9 after beating Portland on January 28th. They’ve only won eight of 51 games since. Bottom line though, the Blazers are going to take this one seriously. Especially since they are trying to clinch a top six spot in the Western Conference to avoid the “play-in” tournament. The Blazers are currently one game ahead of the Lakers for sixth. They have the tiebreaker over LA by virtue of winning the season series. Their last game was a 22-point win over San Antonio and they are now 8-2 ATS L10 games vs. losing teams. The Rockets have had only eight players available each of their L2 games, so it’s a minor miracle they were even able to cover. They could have 10 players available tonight, but the returnees would be Christian Wood and Kelly Olynyk, neither of whom are exactly “All-Stars.” Lay the points here. 8* Portland |
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05-10-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -7.5 | Top | 124-125 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Washington seems to have played itself into the Eastern Conference’s play-in tournament, which will determine the final two seeds in the playoffs proper. Since April 7th, the Wizards are 15-4 with three of those losses coming by a total of five points. Two were by one point and the three-point loss came in OT. But it’s just as important to note the Wiz are still four games under .500, have been outscored on the season and on a per possession basis. Perhaps most important of all is that they won’t have the NBA’s 2nd leading scorer, Bradley Beal, in the lineup tonight vs. Atlanta. The Hawks are trying to chase down the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference, which would mean home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Right now, they trail the Knicks by one game in the race for that spot. Losing at Indiana on Thursday did not help, but the Hawks have had three days to recover from a game where they allowed the opponent to shoot 62.1 percent from the floor and score 133 points. The positive from that is Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season following a game where they surrendered 130+ points. The rest is also huge, especially facing a team that’s playing it’s fourth road game in six nights. While the Wizards’ last three losses have all been very close, what I failed to mention is that they are coming off B2B OT wins as well. Beal scored 50 in a 133-132 win against Indiana on Saturday. He will be sorely missed tonight. For Atlanta, De’Andre Hunter could return to the lineup tonight (gametime decision) as he practiced in full on Sunday. They did just lose at Indiana, but the Hawks have won seven straight at home and their last time here saw them destroy Phoenix by 32. Coming off extended rest, I believe they are well positioned to blow out their division rival tonight. 10* Atlanta |
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05-09-21 | Bulls v. Pistons +9 | Top | 108-96 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
10* Detroit (8:05 ET): Chicago is off B2B blowout victories, but it’s probably a case of “too little, too late” as they still trail by three games in the race for the final play-in spot. You’ve got to wonder where the team would be had leading scorer Zach LaVine not missed so much time. LaVine is now back and so is Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls have to be happy that they just beat Charlotte and Boston (two teams ahead of them) by nearly identical scores. But laying this many points with them on the road would be a bad idea. In last place in the Eastern Conference, Detroit is in the second game of a back to back here. They lost at Philadelphia, 118-104, and a relatively high-scoring second half cost me my Under. Not happy about that, especially after the Pistons scored just 17 points in the first quarter. I do expect them to shoot the ball better tonight and remember what I talked about in yesterday’s analysis. Though they’re giving their young players most of the minutes right now, the Pistons are probably better than their record. They are definitely better than the two teams directly ahead of them in the standings, Cleveland and Orlando. Chicago is just 3-5 SU its last eight games and has been favored only once during that span. The number of times this season they’ve been favored by more than five points is THREE and they lost two of those games outright. All three games were at home. There is a chance this could be the most points the Bulls have had to lay in any game all season. So there’s some real value in fading them off rare B2B blowout victories. The Pistons are 17-9 ATS off a double digit loss. 10* Detroit |
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05-08-21 | Nets -3.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (10:05 ET): The Nets’ current four-game losing streak is a season-worst. Previous to this, they’d only lost three in a row one other time and that was back in early February. After that three-game losing streak, the team proceeded to win (and cover) its next eight games. But a 113-109 loss at Dallas Thursday night ensured there would be no repeat of that. The Nets have also now failed to cover four in a row. There’s only been one longer ATS losing skid this season and that occurred in the first seven games of the season. But I do see Brooklyn bouncing back tonight in Denver as the Nuggets find themselves in the second half of a challenging back to back. Last night, the Nuggets were in Utah and lost to the Jazz 127-120. Now in fourth place in the Western Conference, they have a very comfortable lead (five games) over fifth place Dallas, but last night’s loss leaves them one game back of the Clippers. I don’t see Denver catching the Clips. Not without PG Jamal Murray, whose season is done due to an ACL tear. While the Nuggets have actually fared quite well (so far) w/o Murray (10-3 SU), they’ve dropped two of three and the injuries have really started to pile up with Morris, Barton and Dozier all out. Brooklyn is missing James Harden and is just 10-9 SU without him. But they still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the latter of whom scored 45 against the Mavs Thursday. There’s a greater sense of urgency for the Nets right now (compared to Denver) as they are now three games back of first place Philadelphia in the East and tied with Milwaukee for second. The Nets haven’t shot the ball all that well the L4 games, odd for a team that averages 118.5 PPG, while I don’t see Denver matching last night’s 51.8% shooting. The Nets won by six when these teams met in January to improve to 5-1 ATS L6 meetings. 10* Brooklyn |
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05-08-21 | Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 221 | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Pistons/76ers (7:05 ET): With five games left in their regular season, Philadelphia holds a three-game lead over both Milwaukee and Brooklyn in the chase for the Eastern Conference’s #1 seed. So it certainly looks like the road to the NBA Finals will go through the City of Brotherly Love. The team held on for a 109-107 win over short-handed New Orleans (no Zion) last night, thanks to Joel Embiid’s 37 points and 13 rebounds. While they did not cover the spread, it was the eighth straight win for Philly. Detroit is last in the Eastern Conference, some 26 games behind Philadelphia. I actually believe the Pistons are slightly better than their 20-47 SU record, or at least better than the two teams directly ahead of them: Cleveland and Orlando. However, down the stretch, it’s been pretty clear that the team is more interested in evaluating its young players as opposed to “winning now.” However they did shock Memphis on Thursday, 111-97 as nine-point underdogs, ending a four-game losing streak. Philadelphia is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency whereas Detroit is 26th in offensive efficiency, so you have to figure the Pistons won’t be scoring too many points this evening. All five of their starters were in double figures Thursday and they shot 53% overall as a team. A repeat of that is highly unlikely as two of the previous three games saw them fail to break 100 points. The Pistons are 19-8 Under coming off a non-conference game. The 76ers are on a 7-2 Under run vs. losing teams and have held five of their last seven opponents to 107 points or less. 8* Under Pistons/76ers |
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05-07-21 | Magic +9.5 v. Hornets | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
9* Orlando (8:05 ET): This is definitely more of a fade on Charlotte than any kind of endorsement of Orlando. The Hornets got blown out last night, here at home by Chicago, 120-99. A team I have been skeptical of for most of this season probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody, let alone on the second night of a back to back. I suppose that theory will be put to the test tonight as the Magic are off a 36-point home loss to Boston the other night. Look for them to play a lot better here and take the points. Prior to getting blown out by Boston, the Magic had won two in a row. One of those was in Detroit and the other at home against Memphis. It’s been a long season for the Magic, who have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. But a division game where they are getting a lot of points, and off a blowout loss, is a good “buy low” spot. They’ve already split two games with Charlotte this season with the loss coming by only three points on the road. The Hornets continue to deal with injuries, even though LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk are back. Devonte Graham is questionable for tonight after also sitting last night and forward Miles Bridges is also out. Ball shot 1 for 10 against the Bulls, but the team was actually 16 of 35 from three and still lost by 21 at home (and scored less than 100 points). Charlotte is a below average team by the numbers. Reports out of Orlando is that the team had a good practice following the humiliating loss on Wednesday. I don’t see them getting blown out again. 9* Orlando |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers -8 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): I have the Clippers rated #2 in my own power rankings (Utah is #1). But right now they are tied for third in the conference and could be looking at a first round playoff matchup with the Lakers. They probably want to avoid that, even though they are already 2-0 vs. the Lakers this season. Ironically, if they were to beat their rival again here it would increase the probability of that first round playoff matchup happening. But I don’t think the Clippers care about that right now. They’ve lost three of five and see a Lakers team that won’t have LeBron James tonight. I think the Clips win big. The Lakers won’t have James (rest) or Dennis Schroeder (quarantine), so that’s their two primary ball-handlers out. They did just win in Denver, but the Lakers have been struggling of late with only two wins in the last eight games. The win in Denver snapped a seven-game ATS losing skid. I just don’t like the way the Lakers are trending and it seems unlikely they will turn things around with James out of the lineup, although they did win Monday without him. But the Lakers have been bad as underdogs, going 4-15 straight up and 6-13 against the spread. The Clippers now have Kawhi Leonard back and while they are 0-2 ATS since his return, the lineup they’ll have on the court tonight is going to be much stronger than what the Lakers trot out. Patrick Beverley returned from injury on Tuesday. The last five games have seen the Clippers go 0-5 ATS and average only 104.4 PPG. I see them “breaking out” at the offensive end in this game. They beat the Lakers by 18 last month. Anthony Davis is back for the Purple & Gold, but James isn’t and Schroeder’s absence will be felt as well. 8* LA Clippers |
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05-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Pistons OVER 222.5 | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons (8:05 ET): Another game I expect to go Over Thursday night features two teams facing very different realities at the present time. Memphis, who won a wild 139-135 game last night in Minnesota, is trying to lock down a spot in the play-in round. Currently 8th in the West, things seem secure, though the lead over 11th place New Orleans is still only 3.5 games. Detroit is dead last in the Eastern Conference and has lost four in a row. They’ve got nothing to play for the rest of the way, although escaping the basement would be nice. Recent starting lineups show that the focus seems to be the future, and not the present, though. Memphis shot 53.6 percent against the Timberwolves last night and made 14 threes. At the same time, their defense was not very good as they allowed Minnesota to make 19 threes and shoot 52.1% overall. It was the third straight Grizzlies’ game to go Over the total and only five of their games in the L30 days have stayed Under. Last night was the eighth time this season they scored 130 or more and also the eighth time they allowed 130+. They gave up a 40-point quarter last night, but also had one of their own. Ja Morant had 37 points and 10 assists. Detroit seems to be tanking, although they did stay within the number vs. Charlotte on Tuesday. That was a low-scoring game (103-99 final) where they and the Hornets combined to make 17 of 63 three-point attempts. The Pistons have been holding out some of their regular starters in order to give some “youngsters” a try and the results aren’t always pretty. The three rookies combined to shoot 4 of 23 from the field on Tuesday. We should see improvement tonight. 8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons |
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05-06-21 | Nets v. Mavs OVER 234.5 | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
8* Over Nets/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Brooklyn has lost three in a row for only the second time all year. The other three-game slide occurred back in early February and the team would go on to win (and cover) each of its next eight games. HC Steve Nash has to be hoping for something similar now that it’s crunch time in the regular season and the Nets no longer hold the tiebreaker against the Bucks after two close losses in Milwaukee this week. James Harden has missed 17 of the last 18 games and the team is just 10-8 SU in that stretch. But the Nets still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They are only two games back of first place Philadelphia. Honestly, no one should be panicking in Brooklyn right now. With wins in seven of their last nine games, the Mavs aren’t panicking either. But they still find themselves locked in their own tight three-way battle. It’s not for the top spot in the conference like Brooklyn’s is, but rather to avoid the play-in round. Right now, Dallas is tied for fifth with the Lakers, but they are only one-half game up on Portland. One of those three teams is going to be relegated to a play-in situation. The Mavs have been openly hostile to the notion of the play-in round and I do expect them to avoid it. What’s interesting about their 7-2 SU run is that both losses came to Sacramento. It’s not quite as rare as losing three in a row, but Brooklyn is also 3-0 Under its last three games. It’s only the third time this year they’ve gone Under in three or more consecutive games. Tuesday’s 124-118 loss to the Bucks BARELY stayed Under (total was 242.5). The number here is lower and they are facing a team that’s scored 125 or more in three of its last five games. The Mavs may not match the near 53% shooting from their last game, a 127-113 win over Miami, but they won’t have to as I expect the Nets to be pretty prolific tonight. 8* Over Nets/Mavericks |
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05-05-21 | Kings +6.5 v. Pacers | Top | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): The Kings won their third straight game last night, squeaking by the Thunder (in OKC) 103-99. I had the Under there, which was an easy win (cashed by 27 points!), as I loved the fact that both teams were playing without their respective leading scorers. The loss of De’Aaron Fox hasn’t seemed to bother Sacramento all that much however, as the team has not only won (and covered) three straight, but also five of its last seven. I’ll take the points Wednesday as Indiana is even more banged up than the Kings. The Pacers have scored an incredible 293 points their last two games. That’s the good news. While they turned in the biggest road win in NBA history (at OKC) on Saturday (152-95), they turned around and gave up 154 (no OT!) to the Wizards on Monday. They allowed the Wizards to shoot 61.2% from the field, an alarming number which included only nine made three-pointers for the Wiz. Indiana has not been good ATS at home all year, owning an 8-22 record. There are rumors that HC Nate Bjorkgren’s future here may be in some trouble as he’s had trouble “gelling” with players & staff. Sacramento isn’t likely to make the playoffs, but this three-game win streak shows they aren’t going down without a fight. Beating the Thunder isn’t anything special, but the two previous wins were against the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Dallas. Indiana will likely be in the “play-in” tournament in the Eastern Conference, but is also four games below .500 and the record-setting thrashing of the Thunder is their only win in the L4 games. With seven players listed as questionable or out, the Pacers shouldn’t be laying this many points. 10* Sacramento |
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05-05-21 | Blazers v. Cavs +11 | Top | 141-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): My condolences to anyone who may have bet the Cavs last night. A double digit home dog, they took Phoenix into overtime but did NOT get the cover as they were outscored 20-4 in the extra five minute period. That’s tough. But I’ll use that result to my advantage tonight as the Cavs are again catching double digits at home, but facing a weaker opponent. Having failed to cover any of their last seven games, Cleveland is “due” to get the cash sooner rather than later. So take the points here. Portland comes into C-town off a 123-114 loss at Atlanta. This is the final game of a six-game trip out East for the Blazers and while they won the first four, the schedule is bound to catch up with them. This is their third road game in four nights, always a tough situation. While the Blazers do have a 20-13 SU road record this season, they are outscoring teams by just 1.2 points per game. So they should feel fortunate to have that record. Quite frankly, I’ve been skeptical of this team finishing in the top six in the West for some time now. The Blazers are just one game back of Dallas and the Lakers for sixth. They could end up finishing as high as fifth, but I don’t see that happening. This team is very bad defensively as they give up the second highest number of points per possession in the league (only Sacramento is worse). Though Portland wasn’t nearly as healthy the first time these teams met, it’s notable they were only -3.5 at home. This is the most points they’ve been asked to lay on the road all season and it’s only the third time they’re set to go off as a DD favorite, period. 8* Cleveland |
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05-04-21 | Raptors v. Clippers -9.5 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): Toronto will look to make it an “LA double” tonight as they face the Clippers on TNT. Sunday saw the Raptors pull off an upset of the Lakers (as 10.5-point dogs). The 121-114 win was much needed as not only did it snap a three-game losing streak, but it also kept the team’s fleeting playoff hopes alive. While I do think the Raptors are better than their overall record shows, it’s hard to look past an 11-22 SU record on the road this season. Kawhi Leonard is back for the Clippers and now it’s their turn to snap a three-game losing streak. Lay the points. Leonard made his official return on Saturday, playing 30 minutes in the Clips’ 110-104 loss to Denver. That loss dropped the team into fourth place in the Western Conference, even though they own the league’s second best net efficiency rating (trailing only Utah). I expect a big finish to the regular season from them, starting here, as the current three-game slide matches their longest of the season. The only previous time they were on a three-game losing streak, they responded by destroying Golden State 130-104. The Clippers have not shot the ball recently and have failed to score 110 points in any of the last four games. Look for that to change here as this is the #2 team in the league in offensive efficiency and they still are averaging 116.7 PPG at home. Toronto is playing its fourth road game in six days, not to mention third in the last four, and the previous opponents were Denver, Utah and the Lakers. So this is the end of a treacherous gauntlet and I can see them being out of gas. 8* LA Clippers |
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05-04-21 | Kings v. Thunder UNDER 229.5 | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Thunder (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s bottom five teams meet tonight in OKC with nothing on the line other than pride. Sacramento is going to miss the playoffs for a 15th consecutive season (longest active streak in the NBA), although they do come into Tuesday having won four of six including the first two games of this four-game road trip. Oklahoma City has fallen into the abyss with just one win since the start of April and recently suffered the worst home defeat in NBA history. They are at the bottom of my power ratings. These teams have not met at all this season, but will play three times in the next eight days. If only the Kings were closer to playoff contention, this would be a great opportunity for them to end that long playoff drought. Give them credit for upsetting both the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Mavericks though. Surprisingly, it was defense that was largely responsible for those upsets as they held those teams to 106 and 99 points respectively. I cashed the Under when they beat the Lakers. A big reason why I’m taking the Under here is both teams are without their leading scorers. De’Aaron Fox continues to be in quarantine for Sacramento and making matters worse is that PG Tyrese Haliburton is now out as well after suffering a leg injury in the Dallas game. So don’t look for the Kings to match their 55% shooting from the last game. OKC losing 20 of its last 22 games coincides with the loss of their leading scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they were already last in the league in offensive efficiency. The Thunder have failed to reach 100 points in three of the last six games. 10* Under Kings/Thunder |
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05-03-21 | Spurs +7 v. Jazz | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (10:05 ET): Admittedly, this looks like a challenging spot for the Spurs. They lost for the third straight time yesterday and it was the second straight loss in overtime. They’ve played three OT games in the last seven days. Now they must turn around and head to Salt Lake City where the league-leading Jazz await. But Utah has been much shakier of late, at least at the betting window where they’re 1-4 ATS L5 and 3-8 ATS L11. I’ll take the points as this is a critical game for San Antonio. Friday saw the Spurs blow all of a 32-point lead and lose to Boston 143-140 in overtime. Jayson Tatum scored 60 for the Celtics in that one. Yesterday, San Antonio actually rallied from a 10-point 4Q deficit to force OT. But it was still the same painful end result as they went down 113-111. On the bright side, the team is now 5-1 ATS in its L6 games. But they’ve lost three in a row SU (all by 5 points or less) and their lead over New Orleans for the final playoff spot is down to 2.5 games. It’s imperative that they turn things around. The fact they took the Sixers to OT yesterday was actually impressive when you consider the Spurs were down four starters. Two of them - DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl - rested and should be back tonight. This will be the first of two straight games in Salt Lake City (next one is Wednesday). Over the last five games, Utah has just one win by more than four points. They’ve actually lost three of the five outright, including two to Minnesota. So the Jazz aren’t immune to being upset. The Spurs are 21-9 ATS on the road this year. 8* San Antonio |
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05-03-21 | Magic v. Pistons -2 | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): You may remember the last time I went with the Pistons. It was April 19th and they actually closed as a dog, here at home, vs. Cleveland. They would go on to win that game 109-105 after jumping out to an early 32-9 lead. Despite the fact the Pistons were the last place team in the East and starting several young players, I was adamant that they were a better team than Cleveland. Three weeks later, they’re still in last and still going with a youth movement. But I feel even stronger about the Pistons being a better team than Orlando, who they’ll host Monday. You’ll want to lay the short number in this one. By most objective measures, it’s pretty obvious that the Pistons are better than the Magic. They’ve got a better per game point differential (-4.0) compared to Orlando (-8.3). Not only are the Magic last in the East in PD, they are also last in net efficiency rating. I’ve got them from second from the bottom overall in my own personal power ratings, ahead of only Oklahoma City. Detroit, despite having the worst record in the Eastern Conference, is actually ahead of six teams in the power ratings. Orlando does have the better won-loss record, but only by a game and that discrepancy can be rectified tonight. You may also recall that I just faded the Pistons on Friday when they lost to Charlotte 107-94. But that was a road game. At home, Detroit isn’t bad defensively as they allow just 107.7 PPG, which is much less than they give up on the road. Orlando is off a win here, just their third since April 1st, so now it’s an appropriate time to fade them. They scored just 75 points in their last road game and have lost 13 of 16 overall. The Pistons are 17-8 ATS off a double digit loss this season. 10* Detroit |
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05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Raptors/Lakers (10:05 ET): LeBron James returned Friday, but that was not enough to turn the tide for the slumping Lakers as they lost to the Kings 110-106. That was LA’s fifth loss in six games and they are 0-6 ATS in that stretch. Remember that Anthony Davis is now back as well. The team has fallen into sixth place in the Western Conference standings and is only one game ahead of Portland. Wouldn’t it be something if the defending NBA Champions were relegated to the “play-in” round? The Raptors, who were NBA Champions two years ago, are simply just trying to get into the play-in round. Suffering their third straight defeat last night (106-102 at Utah) certainly didn’t help the cause as Toronto is now three games back of where they need to be to get into the postseason. This has been a very trying season for the league’s only Canadian franchise as they are 10-22 SU on the road and have played no “true” home games. Injuries have played a big part in the decline as well. That said, I actually think they’ve been better than their record as they have a positive scoring differential/net efficiency rating. LeBron is questionable for tonight, so that’s something to keep an eye on. The last time the last two NBA Champions met was about a month ago and James didn’t play in that game either. A horrendous shooting night (39.6% overall, 5 of 33 from 3pt range) cost the Raptors in a 110-101 loss. That game actually went Over (a really low total), but you’ll notice the number is a lot higher for the rematch. I think there’s value going Under here, which I did when the Lakers lost to the Kings on Friday. As mentioned in that writeup, the one good thing for LA is that they are still #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Raptors/Lakers |
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05-02-21 | Knicks -9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): Houston actually had a 55-49 halftime advantage last night against Golden State. But things then turned - rather dramatically - in the third quarter as the Steph Curry Warriors went on a 24-0 run and outscored the Rockets 39-12 over the 12 minute period. It ended up being a 113-87 final and now Houston must play the second half of a back to back against the surprising Knicks, who lead the NBA in points per game allowed and are an incredible 13-1 ATS their last 14 games. It’s a big number to lay on the road, but I think the Knicks are going to cover it. I don’t think anybody - myself included - envisioned the Knicks finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference this season. But that’s where they are and most of the metrics say this team is a legit #4 in the conference right now. As I already mentioned, they are giving up the fewest number of points in the entire NBA. Last time they took the floor, they held Chicago to just 94 points as it was commanding fourth quarter performance, leading to the Knicks’ 10th SU win in their L11 games. That win over the Bulls took place on Wednesday, meaning the Knicks have had three days off. That’s a tremendous edge to have against an opponent playing in the second night of a back to back. ICYMI, the Rockets scored only 87 points on 36.0% shooting last night. So they figure to struggle against Tom Thibodeau’s stingy defense. Houston is a team that has won just five games since Feb 5! They are a miserable 8-24 ATS this season coming off a double digit loss, not to mention 8-26 ATS in all home games. The Knicks have been outstanding when favored this year, going 17-5 SU/16-6 ATS. Yeah, this is a big number, especially for them. But the situation very much calls for it. The Knicks won the first meeting by 22 and the Rockets are a skeleton crew, playing out the string. 10* New York |
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05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -7 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Though I don’t think the Hornets are as good as their record indicates and the Pistons are probably better than theirs, the former is involved in a playoff race and the latter is last in the Eastern Conference. So when it comes down to motivation Saturday night in the Queen City, there should be no question which team is more motivated. Charlotte has also had Detroit’s number the L3 seasons, winning all nine matchups straight up (7-2 ATS) including 105-102 here back on March 11th. You may recall that I faded the Hornets their last time out, which was at Boston. That turned out to be the correct call as they lost 120-111 as 6.5-point dogs and are now 3-7 SU L10 games. Injuries (Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk, LaMelo Ball) have played a major role in the downturn, but they are still 8th in the East at 30-32 overall. Despite falling behind by 20 at the end of the first quarter and shooting just 42.5% for the game, the Hornets were still able to make it a competitive game in Boston. They should find things a lot easier tonight at home against Detroit, who is playing a lot of rookies right now. The Pistons are 3-8 SU their L11 games and lost 115-105 to Dallas Thursday despite shooting 50.7%. Virtually all of the Pistons’ wins in April came against teams that are out of playoff contention. They are a putrid 7-27 SU on the road this season and averaging only 104.4 points the L5 games overall. This is a critical stretch for Charlotte and I think they’ll start May with a big win. 10* Charlotte |
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04-30-21 | Kings v. Lakers UNDER 223 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Kings/Lakers (10:35 ET): So playing the Kings Under the total in their last game turned out to be a horrendous mistake. They allowed the Jazz to shoot 64 percent from the floor and score 154 points, the franchise’s worst loss since 1991. Obviously, there’s going to be defensive improvement from them tonight against the Lakers. But will it be enough to allow this game to go Under the total? I think so as LA continues to struggle offensively without LeBron James. They are averaging just 104.2 points in the L5 games and Anthony Davis has been back for the last four. He’s averaged only 16.3 PPG on 39.1% shooting. Sacramento still doesn’t have its leading scorer, De’Aaron Fox, who is out due to COVID-19 protocol. The Kings have been held to 113 points or less in three straight games without Fox in the lineup. While the defense was being shredded Wednesday night, at the offensive end they were held to their fewest number of points in a game in almost three weeks. The Under is 10-4 in the Kings’ last 14 road games and 11-4 when they are off a SU loss. The Under is also 8-2 the last 10 times the Lakers have hosted the Kings. I know Sacramento is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but I just don’t see the Lakers taking advantage tonight as they have shot below 44% from the field in three of the last five games. The one positive with James out is that the Lakers remain #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Kings/Lakers |
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04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies OVER 224.5 | Top | 75-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): It was a rude welcome home for Memphis on Wednesday. The Grizzlies fell 130-109 to Portland in their first game back at the FedEx Forum following a 4-3 road trip. Shooting just 42% for the second consecutive game was NOT what the doctor ordered, especially on the heels of the prior six games, five of which saw the Grizz score 120 or more points. They are now 3.5 games back of Dallas for sixth place in the West and tied with the Spurs for eighth. A win here is desperately needed. When in need of a win, playing Orlando always seems to be a favorable matchup. The Magic have run out tricks this season as they are second from the bottom in the Eastern Conference and have the second worst point differential in all of the league. They did win, 109-104 at Cleveland on Wednesday. But the Cavs are not a good team and it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect the Magic to hold another opponent to 40.2% shooting like they did to Cleveland. The previous three games saw Orlando allow each of its opponents to shoot 54% or better and six of the last nine opponents have been above 50%. So I think we can definitely count on Memphis scoring a lot of points tonight. The question then is can Orlando do the same? Seeing as how the Grizzlies have allowed 120 points in B2B games as well as four of their last six, I’ll answer that question in the affirmative. The Magic are 8-1 Over their last nine games, including 4-0 the last four. Since March 22nd, only seven Grizzlies’ games have stayed Under and only one of them had a total lower than 225. 10* Over Magic/Grizzlies |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder +8.5 | Top | 109-95 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): The Thunder snapped a 14-game losing streak by beating Boston 119-115 on Tuesday. They were 11-point road underdogs for that contest, which they led most of the way and put to bed with a 41-point fourth quarter. Now the team can pick up its first win at home this month as they host the Pelicans tonight. They’re obviously not favored to do so, but at least the Thunder now have some confidence, which is more than I can say for New Orleans, whose playoff chances seem to be fading rapidly. The Pelicans have now lost six of eight after falling in Denver last night, 114-112. They did cover the spread, but that’s merely a pyrrhic victory for a team that finds itself four games off the playoff pace in the Western Conference. Really, New Orleans should not have covered last night, let alone been in position to tie the game. They were down nine points with 52.8 seconds remaining when Denver (who is without starting PG Jamal Murray) started turning the ball over. New Orleans has only one win by more than seven points this month and that was at home. The team’s last road win by more than seven points came all the way back on February 16th! This is somewhat unprecedented territory for them to be laying so many points away from home and the Pelicans’ ATS record as a favorite this season is only 11-21. The only other time in 2020-21 they’ve been in the second of B2B road games, they lost by 28 points. Not saying OKC wins here, but they’ll keep it close. 10* Oklahoma City |
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04-28-21 | Jazz v. Kings UNDER 223 | Top | 154-105 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
8* Under Jazz/Kings (10:05 ET): These teams played earlier this month and didn’t have much trouble going Over the total in what ended up being a 128-112 Utah win. You’ll notice the total is several points LOWER for this rematch and that’s because the Jazz simply aren’t the same team right now as they were in that first meeting. PG Donovan Mitchell is out and the team is coming off B2B losses to lowly Minnesota, one at home and one on the road. The last four Jazz games have all stayed Under the total. Sacramento’s April began with a long losing streak as they basically played their way out of playoff contention. Things have stabilized a bit over the past six games as they’ve gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS. Still, it feels like “too little, too late” for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in over a decade and is 5.5 games out currently. The Kings are off a 113-106 win over Dallas on Tuesday, one of the better defensive efforts in some time. It was actually their fewest points allowed in a game since March 27 vs. Cleveland. I don’t think the Kings will match Monday’s 51.9% shooting. Not with De’Aaron Fox still sidelined. Fox is the team’s leading scorer at 25.2 points per game. Now, will Utah shoot better than it did against Minnesota on Monday? Probably. They did miss 41 three-point attempts in that game! But they will also still miss Mitchell, who led the way with 42 points in the first meeting with the Kings. The Jazz were also 30 of 35 from the FT line in that game, something that isn’t likely to happen again tonight. 8* Under Jazz/Kings |
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04-28-21 | Hornets v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:35 ET): The Celtics are not only looking to avenge Sunday’s loss in Charlotte here, but also bounce back from a very embarrassing defeat last night where they fell, at home, to Oklahoma City. The Thunder came into Tuesday on a 14-game losing streak, so the Celtics ought to be pretty perturbed over that result. I know that both Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker were out, but that’s a game Boston HAS to win in the midst of a playoff race. HC Brad Stevens is hopeful that Tatum and Robert Williams III will be back in the lineup tonight as the team seeks to end a three-game losing streak. Regardless if either returns, I look for the Celtics to snap that losing streak and exact some revenge in the process. Charlotte, who beat Boston 125-104 on Sunday, also played last night and lost. They went down at home to Milwaukee 114-104 as 9-point underdogs. It was a 17-point deficit at halftime. While things got closer in the 4Q, the Hornets simply didn’t have enough firepower to get over the hump. Remember that they are playing without Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball. I have been shocked that this “skeleton crew” has remained in playoff contention, although they are now a game below .500 and only one game ahead of ninth place Indiana in the East. I know things went poorly on Sunday, but given that the Celtics were 8-point favorites in Charlotte, it looks like we’re getting a major “discount” with the line here. The Hornets are 0-4 SU and ATS their last four visits to Boston. The Celtics have been struggling offensively the last several games, including shooting 11 of 49 from three-point range last night. You’ve got to think that percentage is set to improve here. At the same time, the Hornets aren’t going to shoot as well here compared to what we saw Sunday when they hit 50% overall, including 21 of 43 from 3-pt range. Charlotte has massively overachieved this year and I’m not a believer. 10* Boston |
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04-27-21 | Blazers -5 v. Pacers | Top | 133-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10* Portland (7:05 ET): Portland has lost five in a row, three of them as favorites, while Indiana is on a three-game win streak. Yet it’s the Blazers who are favored here, on the road. How can that be? Well, Indiana is without multiple starters and the fact their three wins came against Oklahoma City, Detroit and Orlando (maybe the three worst teams in the league?) has to be accounted for. Portland’s last four losses have been to the Clippers, Denver and Memphis twice with three of them coming by a total of four points. I look for the Blazers to get back on track tonight with a big-time win. Full disclosure, I’ve openly predicted that Portland would fall out of the top six in the Western Conference and that is precisely what has happened. I can’t say I’m a big fan of a team that is 29th in defensive efficiency, but remember the Blazers were 29-18 at the start of this month. You’ve got to think Damian Lillard is going to turn things around after shooting just 34.7% his L3 games. Again, most of the Blazers’ recent losses have come in close games. Four times this month they’ve been beaten by 1 or 2 points. While Portland’s best player (Lillard) is set to improve, I can’t possibly see Indiana matching its 54.9% shooting from the Orlando game on Sunday. Nor are they going to hold the Blazers to 39.6% like they did to the Magic. The three-game win streak for the Pacers has come against teams that are a combined 57-127 SU this season and two of the teams they beat are currently on losing streaks of 6+ games. Indiana won’t have Domantas Sabonis for this game and we know Myles Turner is out as well. The Pacers are just 11-17 SU at home this season and 8-20 ATS. They are 0-2 SU/ATS off three straight wins. 10* Portland |
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04-26-21 | Cavs +10 v. Raptors | Top | 96-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): The Cavs lost a tough one last night as they blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead in Washington and fell 119-110. It was a game they shot 51.3% from the field, despite not having leading scorer Collin Sexton. As an added “kick in the teeth,” they ended up not even covering the 7.5-point spread. While Sexton remains questionable for tonight (concussion) and it’s the second night of a back to back, the number looks generous here for a Cleveland team that probably feels “it should have” won on Sunday. Toronto, while better than its record, probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody. Remember (that because of COVID-19) there’s no home court advantage for the Raptors this season. All “home games” have been played in Florida and this displacement has led to a 15-15 SU “home” record. Ironically, they’ve been significantly worse in "true" road games (10-20 SU), but the bottom line is that all this travel has put the team at a severe disadvantage this season. The Raptors do have a better YTD point differential than all of the teams they are chasing for a spot in the “play-in” round, but they’ve lost outright the last three times they’ve been favored by 6.5 or more points. One of those losses was to this Cleveland team. They also lost on Saturday, 120-103 at New York. In that one, the Raptors allowed 56% shooting, including 51.3% from three-point range. So there’s definitely hope for Cleveland here. Toronto is just 4-8 straight up and 3-9 against the spread following a double digit loss. In addition to losing to the Cavs last month, they've also been beaten by the Thunder and Rockets in the L30 days. Not saying the Cavs will win outright, but you definitely want to take the points here. 8* Cleveland |
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04-26-21 | Spurs -2 v. Wizards | Top | 146-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (7:05 ET): The Wizards extended their win streak to eight games with a 119-110 victory over Cleveland last night. But even though they were facing a weak opponent, it was by no means “an easy win.” The Cavs led much of the game and shot 51.3% from the floor despite not having their leading scorer Collin Sexton. Washington was down eight early in the fourth quarter when Bradley Beal (NBA’s 2nd leading scorer) took over. Obviously, “a win’s a win,” but it should be pointed out that even with an eight-game win streak, the Wizards are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and still six games below .500 on the year. San Antonio is also fighting for its playoff life right now. Like the Wizards, they currently occupy the last remaining slot in the “play-in round” for their conference. Winning four of five has definitely helped their cause as did Golden State losing last night. It was a key win on Sunday when the Spurs won in New Orleans, 110-108 as three-point underdogs. So they too are a “hot team” right now. The win over the Pelicans also improved them to 17-10 SU and 19-8 ATS on the road this season. They've won their last three on the road, one of those coming at Phoenix. Washington is at a disadvantage here being in the second night of a back to back. While he’s apparently fine, Beal did have a scary moment last night when he limped off the court in the final minute. The team was concerned that it might have been an Achilles injury, but that is not the case. Still, it's something worth monitoring. While the Wizards have been very successful the last two weeks, most of the wins have come against bad teams and they remain pretty horrible at the defensive end (28th in PPG allowed). I think the win streak ends here as San Antonio beat them handily (121-101) back in January. 10* San Antonio |
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04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers (4:05 ET): Going back to last season’s “bubble,” the Grizzlies and Blazers have met three times and all three have gone Over the total. This season’s first meeting just took place on Friday and the teams combined for 258 points (130-128 Memphis win) after combining for 248 and 275 (OT) in LY’s bubble. But with a quick turnaround breeding a sense of familiarity here, I look for a much lower-scoring game on Sunday and will take the Under. A lot is on the line here. Portland has lost its grip on sixth place in the West, which is critical because the way things stand now, they’d have to deal with the “play-in” scenario. I fully expected the Mavs to pass them and now the question is will the Grizzlies do the same? Friday’s win pulled the Grizz within 1.5 games of the Blazers and they’ve got the better YTD point differential and net efficiency rating, indicative that a passing may take place. While Portland’s last three losses have been a total of four points, they’ve also taken a high number of blowouts this season. These teams definitely appear to be trending in different directions as the Blazers have lost four in a row overall and the Grizzlies are 16-4 ATS their L20 games. But winning twice in three days at Portland will be hard. Memphis shot 53% Friday, shooting I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. Nor do I think Portland is going to shoot 40% from 3-point range again. The Blazers are 4-1 Under this season after allowing 130+ points the previous game. Memphis leads the NBA in 2-point field goals attempted AND made per game, so they’re not a 3-pt shooting team. Don’t expect them to match Friday’s 29 fast break points either. 10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers |
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04-24-21 | Spurs v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): I can’t overstate what an important game this is for the Pelicans as they come in trailing the Spurs by 3.5 games for the final spot in the “play-in” tournament. Coming off a 35-point in Orlando (which snapped a four-game losing streak), New Orleans definitely has some confidence entering Saturday. A win tonight would at least give them the tiebreaker over the Spurs as they’d take the season series. The previous two meetings saw each team win by three at home. The Pelicans led by as many as 42 points Thursday night en route to their largest margin of victory this season. Now you can’t play the Magic every night, but San Antonio is a slightly below average team in my eyes. Despite resting several players, the Spurs did win themselves on Thursday (106-91), but that was against a Detroit team that has an even worse record than Orlando. Leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is still listed as questionable for this one and a short-handed Spurs lineup isn’t likely to be as successful tonight. I view these teams as close to even, so the 3.5 game gap in the standings is misleading. New Orleans is at home, so they deserve to be favored and I’ve got no hesitation laying the short number. They’ll have the best player on the floor (Zion Williamson). San Antonio is just 1-7 ATS off its last eight double digit wins. We saw them lose by 20 at home to Miami the last time in this situation. The Spurs’ record is actually better on the road than at home, but I’m unsold. 10* New Orleans |
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04-23-21 | Wizards v. Thunder OVER 229.5 | Top | 129-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
10* Over Wizards/Thunder (8:05 ET): Washington has gotten hot at the right time as they’ve won six in a row to move into 10th place in the Eastern Conference. If they can hold onto that spot (or move up further), then they are in the play-in round for the playoffs. It’s the second longest active win streak in the NBA right now (Knicks) and what’s been curious is that it’s been somewhat fueled by the team’s play at the defensive end of the floor. The Wizards have given up only 109.4 PPG over the L5 games. All five of those games stayed Under and we had the Under in the last one, a 118-114 win over Golden State. Now obviously a final score such as that is going to go Over most totals. But I saw a really high number there and took advantage. What’s interesting is that three of the five straight Unders would have gone Over tonight’s total as the Wiz are in OKC to face Russell Westbrook’s former team, the struggling Thunder, who have lost 12 in a row and are at the bottom of my own personal power rankings. Washington has averaged 120.5 PPG during its win streak and I see no reason why they shouldn’t again be hovering around that number tonight. They are probably likely to eclipse it as the Thunder have allowed an average of 122.0 PPG their last five contests. These teams just met Monday in D.C. with the Wizards winning 119-107. The rematch should be higher scoring based on the fact that OKC was just 23 of 50 on two-point attempts in that game and I’m not a believer in Washington sustaining its recent defensive “surge.” They are still giving up 118.0 PPG for the season, which is third most in the league. 10* Over Wizards/Thunder |
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04-22-21 | Lakers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The Mavs just missed out on covering the 10.5-point spread last night as they downed Detroit 127-117. It was a game they largely controlled in the second half - as they should have considering where the Pistons are in the standings. Dallas will gladly take the SU win, but it’s still six straight ATS losses for a team that had lost four in a row at home going into last night, including two to losing teams. I will point out that they led the Pistons by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter. The number is a LOT shorter tonight and I will lay it as the Mavs look to win two in a row. The big story for this game is that Anthony Davis is expected to return for the Lakers. Davis says he’s now “100% healthy,” but how effective can he be after missing 30 games? The Lakers went 14-16 SU in his absence and now trail the Nuggets by 2.5 games for fourth place. Remember there’s still no LeBron James. The team hasn’t played since Monday when they lost 111-97 to Utah. While they’ve been alternating wins and losses all month long, I just don’t like their chances here as they are only 3-8 ATS in their L11 games as an underdog. I truly believe Dallas will pass Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. Remember how important that is as sixth place allows you to avoid the play-in round. Finishing sixth or better is a stated goal for this team, which has been vocal in its displeasure over the “play-in round.” The six straight ATS losses matches a season-high, previously set in late January. A win here would tie the Mavs with Portland for sixth place. A SU win almost certainly will equal an ATS win and I think we’re getting a real discount due to the Davis news (I don’t think he’ll be that effective). 8* Dallas |
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04-22-21 | Suns v. Celtics +5.5 | Top | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): Phoenix continues to show they deserve to be mentioned among the league’s elite as they’ve begun the most difficult road trip of the season (five games out East) with wins over Milwaukee and Philadelphia. But playing for the third time in four nights at Boston, this is hardly what I’d call a “good spot” for them. It was the narrowest of escapes last night in Philly as the Suns won 116-113 when Joel Embiid’s last second desperation heave went “in and out.” The Celtics are dealing with injuries, but are rested and have won 8 of 10. Take the points here. Boston’s six-game win streak came to a bit of a shocking end Monday as they fell here at home to Chicago, 102-96 as 4.5-point chalk. The team had also previously covered four in a row. Two 18 point quarters doomed the Celtics and they were outscored by 14 in the third. But this team is still a solid 18-11 SU at home and could really use the win here as they are locked into a tight three-way battle for fourth place with the Knicks and Hawks. Not finishing sixth is imperative as it would allow the Celts to avoid the three Eastern Conference heavyweights in the first round of the playoffs. Both Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart missed Monday’s loss. They are expected back in the Boston lineup tonight. The team is less optimistic about Jaylen Brown (doubtful) while Jayson Tatum has said he WILL play. Regardless, this is a really good value on a team that isn’t a home dog very often. Phoenix was only a three-point favorite when they hosted the Celtics back in February. They could be excused for an “off-night” here considering the situation and they’ve got another back to back upcoming with the Nets/Knicks. Winning all these games isn’t going to happen. 10* Boston |
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04-21-21 | Wolves v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Here we go again, fading the T’wolves off a win. It’s been about the surest bet in the NBA this season. Since starting 2-0, Minnesota has not won back to back games at any point. They are 0-14 SU off a win since that 2-0 start, going 2-11-1 ATS as well. They are being outscored by about 15 PPG in this situation. The last time they were off a win was Sunday and I faded them in Los Angeles (against the Clippers) in what turned out to be a 124-105 loss. They won last night here in Sacramento, 134-120 as 3.5-point underdogs, so there’s only one way to play this matchup from where I sit. Given all the information listed above, it would be quite embarrassing for the Kings at home B2B days and for a third time this month to the T’wolves. Certainly, little has gone right for Sacramento over the last month as they’ve lost 10 of 11 to play themselves right out of the playoff race. But I can’t see Minnesota shooting 56.7% from the field again (like they did last night). The Kings actually led going into the fourth quarter, which is when everything began to fall apart. They scored just 17 points over the final 12 minutes and were on the wrong end of a 17-3 run down the stretch. When the T’wolves are off a SU win as a dog, they are 0-12 SU the next game and 2-10 ATS. In the second night of a back to back, they are getting outscored by 9.2 PPG this season. They entered yday tied with Houston for the worst SU record in the league. The Kings are surely better than how they’ve played of late and will be desperate to win at home for the first time this month. Given the situation at hand, I’ll make the RARE move to lay points with them. 8* Sacramento |
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04-21-21 | Warriors v. Wizards UNDER 239.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Warriors/Wizards (7:05 ET): The two top scorers in the NBA will be on the same floor tonight as Steph Curry and the Warriors take on Bradley Beal and the Wizards. Curry has been absolutely on fire of late and was the talk of social media Monday night with a 49-point effort against the Sixers. He made 10 three-pointers as it was his 11th straight game with 30+ points and he’s averaged 43.8 PPG on the team’s current road trip. But still, as a team Golden State finished with only 107 points Monday night. You have to figure Curry won’t be going off like THAT again here, even if the Wizards are far from the league’s finest defensive outfit. Washington comes into tonight on a five-game win streak (also 7-1 L8) as they too are trying to qualify for the postseason. They are in the midst of a “friendly” stretch of home games that has seen them recently defeat New Orleans, Detroit and Oklahoma City. The Wizards’ last four games have all stayed Under as their defense has improved at the right time. They’ve held those last four opponents to 115 pts or less, which may not sound all that impressive, but it is for this team. This total is really high. It’s almost identical to the O/U line from the last meeting, which was earlier this month, and saw Washington win 110-107 as a 4.5-point underdog. Curry hadn’t really “caught fire” yet, but still went for 32. The Wizards had four players score at least 19 in that win. I just don’t see the kind of scoring the oddsmakers are expecting to take place here. Only two of Golden State’s last 13 games would have gone Over this number while only three of the Wizards’ last 12 would have done the same. 10* Under Warriors/Wizards |
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04-20-21 | Magic +12.5 v. Hawks | Top | 96-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:35 ET): The Magic are obviously a team in complete disarray right now, but this is a massive number for the Hawks to be laying at the betting window. Even though they’ve won 8 of 10, Atlanta still has only two wins by more than 12 points this month and both were against New Orleans. This is a more familiar opponent, one that has won and covered six of the previous nine meetings. When these teams played last month in Orlando, it was only a three-point win for the Hawks. They did cover as 2.5-point chalk, but the line has obviously grown significantly larger for tonight’s rematch. Orlando has just one win in its last nine games (115-106 at Chicago on 4/14) and now is the “proud owner” of the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Perhaps “rock bottom” occurred on Sunday night when they lost at home to a Rockets team that has won only four games since Feb 4. While I do not expect the Magic to win tonight’s game, I do expect them to keep it close. It was really just one bad quarter that killed them Sunday and they still only ended up losing by four. The Magic are 5-2 ATS L7 as road dogs. Atlanta has been asked to lay double digits only one other time all season and that came all the way back on December 28th against the Pistons. They won that game, but only by eight points. Subsequently, there have been only a handful of times where they’ve had to lay seven or more points. Twice they lost outright. That they blew all of a 20-point lead against Indiana Sunday night is a concern, even though they still wound up winning that game by 12. The Hawks have a bigger game tomorrow night at New York to worry about. Take the points. 10* Orlando |
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04-19-21 | Cavs v. Pistons +2.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons couldn’t be further from the success of the legendary “Bad Boys” of the late 1980’s or even the teams from 15-17 years ago. They have basically spent the entire year in last place in the Eastern Conference. Their current record is 17-40 SU and they’ve dropped four of five following a 21-point setback (121-100) in D.C. on Saturday. But I just can’t understand why they’d be getting points, at home, from a Cleveland team who has a far more negative point differential. Yes, the Cavs have a better SU record. But this is just the third time they will be a road favorite in 2020-21. I know the Pistons are currently fielding a VERY young lineup. A majority of the veterans are dealing with injuries, so they will be resting tonight. It’s not like the team was doing that well with those players on the floor, so I don’t really view this as a negative. While the Pistons were blown out by a surging Wizards team over the weekend, this is basically the same starting lineup that beat Oklahoma City here at home on Friday. While the Thunder are 30th (last) in my personal power rankings, the Cavs are 29th. So this is a very winnable game for a Detroit team that’s already 16-5 ATS this season when off a double digit loss. This is also a big revenge game for the Pistons. They are 0-2 vs. the Cavs in 2020-21 (and 0-9 SU in all division games!). The day after X-Mas saw the Pistons blow a late lead and lose in double overtime. Then it was a rare hot shooting night for Cleveland (at home) in the second meeting. The Cavs have a per game point differential of -7.3 (Detroit just -3.8, which is actually better than three teams in the East, including the Wizards). I just faded the Cavs as a short road dog against a Chicago team that had dropped five in a row and that turned out to be an easy win. Cleveland has also lost four of five and should NOT be favored in this one. 10* Detroit |
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04-18-21 | Wolves v. Clippers -10 | Top | 105-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): The Clippers are off a rare loss (106-103 at Philadelphia) while Minnesota is off an even rarer win (119-111 over Miami). Typically, this is a tremendous spot to bet against the T’wolves. Not only have they failed to win B2B games since a 2-0 start to the season, they are 2-10-1 ATS off their previous 13 SU victories. When off a win this season, the T’wolves are being outscored by 12.6 points per game. The last time, they lost by 30 at Brooklyn. They are a league-worst 5-23 SU on the road and the last two away games have seen them surrender 141 and 145 points. The Clippers had won seven in a row before losing in Philly Friday night. Playing without Kawhi Leonard for the fourth straight time, they fell behind early (trailed by 11 after one quarter) and had no answer for Joel Embiid, who had 36 points and 14 rebounds. But they still made a game of it. Leonard is questionable for tonight, but Paul George has been the best player in the Western Conference over the last week and the opponent is as weak as it gets here. The last time the Clips hosted Minnesota, they won by 23. They are 22-8 SU at home this season and also beat the T’wolves by seven on the road in February. Minnesota was a seven-point dog in Friday’s upset win over Miami. When off a SU win as a dog, they are 0-11 SU/2-9 ATS the next time out. Not only did they recently lose to the Nets by 30, they also lost by 25 to the Bucks. I bring those results up because those are top tier teams like the Clippers. The T’wolves are allowing 122.1 PPG when off a SU win and here they are facing the league’s most efficient offense. After a SU loss, LA is 14-4 SU/12-6 ATS with a point differential of +9.9 PPG. 10* LA Clippers |
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04-17-21 | Cavs v. Bulls -1.5 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): When the Bulls traded for Nikola Vucevic last month, it was supposed to lead to a charge up the Eastern Conference standings. Instead, the team is now 3-9 SU since that trade and on a five-game losing streak (also 0-5 ATS) following last night’s defeat at the hands of Memphis. Obviously, leading scorer Zach LaVine being in COVID protocol doesn’t help. But recent losses to the likes of Orlando and Minnesota are downright inexcusable when in the stretch run. As ugly as things have gotten here in the Windy City, I just can’t see the Bulls losing at home tonight to lowly Cleveland. The Cavaliers are actually just two games back of the Bulls, which should be a major wake-up call for the home team tonight. The Cavs are very much a bottom five team in the league, despite their “closeness” to the Bulls in the standings right now. I make that statement based on their YTD point differential and net efficiency rating. Cleveland is the worst offensive team in the NBA on a per game and per possession basis. If Chicago can’t win this one, they really ought to be ashamed of themselves. The last time these teams met was last month and the Cavs did win here in Chicago, 103-94 as 7.5-point underdogs. But as you can see, we’re getting a MUCH shorter line with the home team in this one. The Bulls were just 28.6% from three-point range in that last meeting, a number I expect them to improve upon tonight. Cleveland has lost 8 of 11 since beating the Bulls, so they’re in no better shape. I can’t see the Bulls’ defense being as bad as it was in the 2H last night. This is a classic “buy low” spot. 10* Chicago |
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04-16-21 | Knicks v. Mavs UNDER 211 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Knicks/Mavericks (9:30 ET): The surprising Knicks have won four straight and are on an even longer ATS win streak of seven games. They are now in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, which is not something I saw coming at the start of the season. But their underlying metrics suggest there is nothing phony about this. Key to their success under HC Tom Thibodeau is the fact the Knicks are #1 in the NBA in points allowed as they are giving up only 104.3 per game. On average, their games are the lowest scoring in the entire league at 209.9 PPG. Dallas led the league in offensive efficiency a year ago, but not in 2020-21 as they are down to 10th in that category. On Wednesday night, the Mavs won a game that they badly needed. Luka Doncic capped a fourth quarter rally with a “lucky” last second shot to defeat Memphis 114-113. Unfortunately, that shot cost me a winning Under ticket. But all the Mavs care about is they are now within one game of Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. I do believe they’ll pass the Blazers by season’s end and thus avoid the “play-in round” that they’ve been so critical of. While this is a low total, that shouldn’t be all that surprising with the Knicks involved. Also, Dallas has failed to score 100 points twice in its last five games. Over the past month, the most points allowed by the Knicks in regulation is 114. They’ve held eight opponents under 100 during that time and only four (out of 16) have been able to top 102. The Mavs’ scoring average decreases at home (down to 109.8 PPG) and the Under is 10-1 L11 home games. When these teams played two weeks ago, the final score was 99-86 (Dallas won). 10* Under Knicks/Mavericks |
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04-16-21 | Pacers +9.5 v. Jazz | Top | 111-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
8* Indiana (3:05 ET): We’ve got a rare weekday afternoon game in Salt Lake City Friday as the Jazz host the Pacers. Utah still has the best overall record in the league (41-14 SU), however they’ve gone just 3-3 their last six games and were very short-handed in Tuesday’s 106-96 win over sorry Oklahoma City. Three players were out, and as a result the Jazz actually fell behind the Thunder by as many as 17 points. Only seven players ended up scoring, but that ended up being enough to get the win. As of this writing, it’s unclear how many of the three injured players (O’Neale, Ingles, Clarkson) will return tonight. Conversely, Indiana had a MUCH easier time in its last game. They led wire to wire in a 132-124 win at Houston. That was the fourth win in the last five games as the Pacers try to lock down a spot for the postseason (which begins next month). Currently 8th in the East, Indiana has shown more offense these L5 games, averaging 126.2 PPG. They typically have NOT performed well ATS when coming off a high-scoring effort, but it’s also rare to find them getting as many points as they are here. While winning in Salt Lake City is tough, the Pacers do sport a 17-12 SU road record this season, which is pretty good. Also, the Jazz did just lose here at home, 125-121 to Washington on Monday night. That snapped a 24-game home win streak. They’ll likely still be short-handed here and the Pacers make for their toughest opponent in over a week. (The Jazz’s L3 games have been against Sacramento, Washington and OKC). The Pacers were able to keep it close (lost by 8) when the teams played last month. I think they do the same again here. 8* Indiana |
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04-15-21 | Kings +12 v. Suns | Top | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Obviously, this does not seem like the ideal spot for the Kings to end an ugly eight game losing skid. After all, they are in the second night of a back to back and facing a team that is second in the Western Conference. Last night saw them drop a home game to the Wizards, 123-111 as two-point underdogs. While I don’t think they can beat the Suns, I do think this is a generous number for a battle of division opponents. It’s more than the Kings were getting when they traveled to Utah last week. Utah is the only team ahead of Phoenix right now in the Western Conference, though the red hot Clippers are hot on the Suns’ heels. Two nights ago I laid a much shorter number with the Suns here at home and they rolled to an impressive 106-86 win over Miami. But an odd trend has developed with Phoenix over the last three weeks; they’ve failed to cover B2B games even one time. They are 0-6 ATS off their previous six ATS wins and while they’ve suffered only one straight up defeat during that time (Clippers), this is a big number to cover. The last two times Phoenix has been off an ATS win and laying double digits, they were playing Houston. Both times they failed to cover as they won those games by only three and six points. After an ATS win, the Suns are only +4.8 PPG this season. So expect this one to be closer than the oddsmakers (and public) think as Sacramento is desperate for something resembling a competent performance and should turn one in here. 10* Sacramento |
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04-14-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies UNDER 226.5 | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): This is a pretty important game for these teams, both of which are looking to move up the Western Conference standings and avoid the play-in scenario for this year’s playoffs. Remember that a team has to finish 6th (or better) to avoid the play-in. I give both of these teams a good shot at moving past Portland (who currently occupies 6th place), Dallas moreso. But the Mavericks come into tonight as losers of two straight while Memphis is off a 101-90 win over Chicago. The Under is 7-1 in Dallas’ past eight games. They scored only 95 points in a home loss to Philadelphia on Monday where they shot only 42.2% from the field. They were just 9 of 36 from three-point range. This team’s offensive efficiency is way down compared to last season when they led the league in that department. Currently, they are 10th in offensive efficiency. On the bright side, they did defeat Memphis 102-92 in the season’s first meeting as they held the Grizzlies to 6 of 31 shooting from three-point range. Going back to last year, the Grizz have averaged just 94 points the L2 times they have faced the Mavs. Their defense had been poor in recent losses to the Knicks and Pacers, however one of those games (Knicks) did go to OT. The defense improved tremendously vs. Chicago Monday night as they allowed 41.9% shooting including 5 of 31 from three-point range. The Under is 33-11 in Memphis’ last 44 home games including 5-0 the L5 when they are the dog. 8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies |
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04-14-21 | Magic v. Bulls UNDER 220.5 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Magic/Bulls (8:05 ET): Orlando has really sunk into the abyss as they’re on a six-game losing streak which has seen them get beat by double digits five times and by 20+ points three times. They have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Obviously, there are major issues defensively as this six-game skid has seen them allow an average of 123.7 points per game. But for purposes of this play, be more focused on the fact that they’ve failed to crack 100 themselves three different times during the same stretch. That includes both of the last two games. Chicago is just trying to get into the playoffs. They currently occupy the last spot for the Play-In Tournament as they are in 10th place, 1.5 games ahead of a Toronto team that I happen to think is better than they are. Despite bolstering their rotation at the trade deadline, the Bulls have failed to “pick up the pace” and come into tonight’s game on a three-game losing streak. They’ve lost 9 of 12 overall. Now the majority of those losses have come on the road. This is the first of three straight winnable home games on the upcoming schedule, but the problem is they are only 10-16 SU at home this season. The Bulls are also coming off a loss in which they failed to score 100 points. They shot 5 of 31 from three-point range in a 101-90 setback at Memphis Monday night. While they figure to shoot better than that here, they only average 109.7 PPG at home. Of course, that might be enough as Orlando averages just 102.2 PPG on the road (29th in the league). These teams played earlier in the season and it was 118-92 in Orlando and that was with the Bulls (who won) shooting better than 50% (including 15 of 30 from 3-pt range). They won’t shoot that well here. 10* Under Magic/Bulls |
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04-13-21 | Heat v. Suns -3 | Top | 86-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): The Suns used a big 1st half, which included a NBA record 18 made three-pointers, to roll to a 126-120 victory last night over Houston. The good news is that the hot start enabled them to go on “cruise control” down the stretch, important since they were in the front end of this back to back. The bad news is for anyone who bet them as a 23-point halftime advantage wound up shrinking down to six by the final whistle as the Suns failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites. I’ll “swoop in” tonight though and take them laying a much shorter number. Since the start of March, Miami has been very hot and cold. They went on a five-game winning streak, then a six-game losing streak and are now 6-1 SU their L7 games. Sunday night, the Heat began what will be a four-game road trip with a 107-98 win in Portland. As is the case with Phoenix here, the Blazers were in the second night of a back to back. Miami actually built a 20-point lead early in the fourth quarter. But this is a much more challenging opponent set for Tuesday as the Suns are 30-8 their L38 games including 8-1 L9. Phoenix is 2nd in the Western Conference, just 1.5 games behind Utah, who lost last night. While the Heat have had the Suns’ number in the past (20-6 ATS L26 head to head meetings, 11-1 ATS L12 here in Phoenix), the last two matchups have gone Phoenix’s way. That includes a 110-100 win in Miami last month as two-point favorites. Though the Heat are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, they still have a negative point differential on the season. The Suns don’t have to travel for this back to back (last night’s game was also at home) and they are 5-1 SU this season in the 2nd of B2B home games, winning by an average of 9.3 PPG. They are the much better side here. 10* Phoenix |
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04-13-21 | Clippers -3 v. Pacers | Top | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (7:35 ET): If Kawhi Leonard was playing tonight, this line would obviously be higher. But even after factoring in Leonard’s absence and the Pacers’ home court “advantage,” the number looks a little low to me. The Clippers are a hot team right now as they’ve won five in a row by an average of nearly 14 points per game. Keeping up with the Jazz and Suns is imperative. Without Kawhi, they were able to defeat Detroit 131-124 on Sunday. As I’ll get into momentarily, Indiana’s home record is shockingly poor. While the Clippers are trying to inch closer to the top of the Western Conference, Indiana is just trying to remain relevant in the Eastern Conference. Right now, the Pacers are in 9th place and that’s with a three-game win streak coming into tonight. Those wins - which were against Minnesota, Orlando and Memphis - have them within two games of .500. The mediocre overall won-loss record is largely owed to the fact they are 9-15 SU (7-17 ATS) at home, one of the worst such records in the entire league this year. So there’s really no “home court advantage” for the Pacers here. Myles Turner is out for them and defensively there are issues with two of the last three opponents scoring at least 125. The Clippers are #1 in the league in offensive efficiency and while not having Leonard hurts a little, they still have Paul George, who went for 32 against the Pistons. When these teams met in January, the Clippers ran away with a 129-96 victory as seven different players finished in double figures. 8* LA Clippers |
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