For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-22-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 232.5 | Top | 98-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* Over Bulls/Bucks (8:10 ET): This is a high total, but consider that the last time these teams played (earlier this month), the number was even higher (239.5). That previous meeting did NOT go Over, but did see 230 total points scored (Bucks won 118-112). The Under is actually 2-0 in Bulls/Bucks meetings in 2021-22 with the first being really low-scoring. But for that first meeting, the Bulls did not have Zach LaVine and the two teams combined to shoot an irregularly bad 13 of 69 from three-point range. Going back to February 5th, the fewest total pts scored in any Milwaukee game is 228. I’ll take my chances here with the Over. Chicago played last night and picked up a key win over Toronto, 113-99. The win kept them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and also widened the gap over the seventh place Raptors to 2.5 games. This will be the third time this season that the Bulls are playing in a back to back where the first game was home and the second was away. The previous two occasions have seen an average of 237 total points per game scored. The Bulls’ defense has been very shaky over the last month or so and will NOT keep the Bucks in check the way it did Toronto (who shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range). In fact, the previous two games - when it faced Utah and Phoenix - Chicago gave up 125 and 129 points. Milwaukee has scored 117 or more in every game but one since the All-Star Break. That one time was against Golden State, who is one of the top two defensive teams in the entire NBA. Now the Bucks have their own issues defensively as the last two games have seen them surrender 126 and 138 points. They allowed 38 made threes in the two games. The Over is 13-5 in the Bucks’ last 18 games overall and 9-3 L12 at home. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks |
|||||||
03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs -3 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. But I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate tonight when they face the team they are chasing for fifth. Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. It’s been a LONG time since Dallas has lost three in a row (Dec 3-7), so I expect a bounce back tonight at home. The Mavs have a big edge defensively in this matchup. They allow just 102.2 PPG at home while the T’wolves are allowing 117.1 on the road. Remember that I faded the T’wolves, successfully, in their lone loss in the L11 games, which was at Orlando. Because of the strong numbers at the defensive end, Dallas is 23-12 SU at home this season. Look for Luka Doncic, who is averaging 28.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists, to get more “help” here than he did in the last game. Role players tend to produce more at home. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 230 | Top | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Under T’wolves/Mavs (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. I don’t see them shooting that well here, against a Mavs team that allows just 102.2 PPG at home. Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. I think Dallas matches up uniquely well against Minnesota. First off, the Mavs play at the slowest pace in the league, a big reason why they are the #1 Under team at 43-26-2. The Under is 24-10-1 in their home games. Also, the Mavs allow the fewest number of three-point attempts in the league (10.9 per game), which is key because Minnesota takes the most threes per game. The previous two matchups between these teams both saw 216 total points scored and had much lower totals. I believe that the offensive numbers for Minnesota are due to “come back down to Earth” and that’s a big reason why I’m on the Under here. 8* Under T’wolves/Mavericks |
|||||||
03-20-22 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
8* Under Raptors/Sixers (8:40 ET): I’ve been unafraid to play the Under with the Sixers recently as that’s the way that five of their last seven games have gone. One of the two that didn’t went to overtime. The Under was a winning bet when I took it Friday as the Sixers beat the Mavericks 111-101. As has been discussed before, the defensive efficiency numbers when James Harden and Joel Embiid are on the floor together have been exceptional. Embiid is listed as questionable for tonight, but you obviously can’t disregard the impact that will have at the offensive end. Take the Under with Philly yet again. Toronto seemed poised to break into the top six in the Eastern Conference as they were on a 5-0 SU/ATS run heading into Friday night’s game vs. the Lakers. But they lost that one, 128-123 in overtime, and coupled with Cleveland’s B2B wins, the Raptors are now 1.5 games back of the top six. Toronto shot 50% against the Lakers, a number I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. They are shooting 44.4% for the year. The Under is 23-12 in Sixers’ home games this season. That includes 8-1 when the O/U is 220 or higher. While the offensive numbers exploded in the first 5-6 games with Harden, the L5 games have seen Philly average only 111 PPG and that’s with an OT game. This O/U line opened much higher than either of the two previous meetings, both of which did go Over, but would have barely scraped by this number. 8* Under Raptors/Sixers |
|||||||
03-20-22 | Thunder v. Magic UNDER 226.5 | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* Under Thunder/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando’s defense has been absolutely atrocious over the L2 games, giving up 150 to Brooklyn and 134 to Detroit. Allowing 150 points is never acceptable, though the Magic fell prey to a 60+ point effort from Kyrie Irving that day. I’m not complaining as I had the Over in the game. Giving up 134 to the Pistons may have actually been worse considering Detroit is second to last in the NBA in scoring. Tonight, the Magic face THE lowest scoring team in the NBA, Oklahoma City. Can the defense turn around? Yes, I think it can! (It certainly can’t get any worse!) Take the Under. Each of the Thunder’s last four games have gone Over, but they are banged up heading into Sunday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) is listed as questionable for tonight and there were SEVEN players that missed Friday’s game vs. Miami, which ended up being OKC’s eighth consecutive loss. Gilgeous-Alexander is the team’s leading scorer and the second AND third leading scorers were out against Miami. I know the injuries haven’t stopped the Thunder from scoring more than usual, but that’s likely to end for a team that averages just 102.8 PPG on the road this season. By the way, Orlando is also banged up and one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. The Magic average only 104.5 PPG (28th overall) and were without two starters (Carter, Suggs) vs. the Pistons. I believe that the recent rash of high-scoring games both teams are experiencing is a mirage, mostly due to the opponents. This total is absurdly high considering its two of the three lowest scoring teams in the NBA. They are the bottom two in offensive efficiency. Thunder games average 214.1 PPG for the season while Magic games average 217.0 PPG. The Under is 10-4 in Orlando’s L14 games vs. teams with losing records. 10* Under Thunder/Magic |
|||||||
03-19-22 | Pistons +7 v. Cavs | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
03-18-22 | Bulls +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 102-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
8* Chicago (10:10 ET): The two surprise teams in the East, Chicago and Cleveland, have both started to fall off a bit in the second half of the season. In the case of the Bulls, they’ve won just two of their last nine games, going 1-8 ATS, and are now down to 5th place in the Conference. (Remember that they were once in 1st). With seventh place Toronto making a move, the Bulls need to get things turned around in a hurry or they risk falling into the “play-in round” for the playoffs. Despite recent form, I’m going to take the points here as the road team comes in desperate and motivated. Shortly after the All-Star Break, Phoenix dropped B2B games (to New Orleans and Utah), but they’ve since battled back to win seven of their last nine, despite not having PG Chris Paul. The last three games have all been wins and covers for the Suns, one over the Pelicans in a revenge spot. But the other two wins were against the Lakers and Rockets, the former a sinking ship and the latter the worst team in the Western Conference. At 56-14 on the year (best record in the NBA), the Suns have nothing to worry about, but I could see them coming out flat here. The Bulls have certainly seen their defensive numbers take a hit over the last month or so, but Alex Caruso (one of their top defenders) is now back and that should help. Losing at Utah on Wednesday night really shouldn’t be taken as a big deal. Now losing Monday in Sacramento was bad. But I just think this Bulls team comes out ready to play on Friday. Right now feels like a “buy low” spot on a team that was once first in the Eastern Conference standings. 8* Chicago |
|||||||
03-18-22 | Mavs v. 76ers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Mavericks/76ers (7:10 ET): Since they acquired James Harden, Sixers’ games have become much more high-scoring. With the exception of the game Harden sat (99-82 loss at Miami), every Philly game since the trade has seen at least 224 total points scored. But, you may recall that a few games ago, I was the beneficiary of overtime with an Over bet on the Sixers win against the Magic. Had it not been for OT, that game would have stayed well Under the number. Here, the Sixers are matched up with the top Under team in the NBA. That’s the way I see this one going. With Dallas, the Under is 24-10-1 this season when they are at home. The percentage isn’t nearly as skewed when they are on the road, but this team is still tied (with Boston) for the league lead in scoring defense, giving up just 103.7 PPG. They’ve been slightly more stingy over the L5 games, allowing only 102.7 PPG. The only team to top 107 against them in that stretch was Brooklyn on Wednesday, a game the Mavs won at the buzzer 113-111. Twice in those last five games Dallas has failed to score 100 themselves. The Under is 40-16 their last 56 games as a road underdog, including a 95-92 win at Boston on Sunday. With just 210.4 total PPG scored, Mavs’ games are - on average - the lowest scoring in the NBA this year. This is a high total for them, owed to Philly’s recent results after the Harden trade. But be aware that the Under is 8-1 in Sixers’ home games this season when the total is 220 or higher. Take the Under. 10* Under Mavericks/76ers |
|||||||
03-16-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 221.5 | Top | 110-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
8* Under Celtics/Warriors (10:10 ET): This promises to be a good game. You’ve got Boston, who I believe is actually the best team in the Eastern Conference right now, going against a Golden State club that needs little introduction. It’s on ESPN. Everyone likes to see scoring, like what we got with last night’s Over play on Brooklyn-Orlando (which included a 60-point individual effort from Kyrie Irving). But here I expect the scoring to stay low as we’ve got two of the best defensive teams in the league. Take the Under. Boston has gone 23-7 SU over its last 30 games. They were below .500 when they lost to the Warriors 111-107 back on Dec 17. The turnaround has been engineered, in large part, because of a defense that is tied for tops in the league in efficiency this season. The Celtics are allowing just 103.9 PPG this season on 43.2% shooting. They did lose on Sunday, but you can’t blame the defense as they held the Mavs to only 95 points. The Under is 10-5 this season for Boston when the OU line is 220 or higher. Who is Boston tied with for the league’s #1 defensive efficiency rating? That would be the Warriors! Here at home, Golden State gives up just 102.3 PPG on 42.2% shooting. Everyone rightly thinks of the Dubs as an offensive juggernaut, but when they were winning championships, their defensive numbers were always among the best in the league. Draymond Green is now back, which is key for the defense. Now the Warriors have gone out and averaged 124 PPG themselves the L2 games, but don’t expect them to approach that number here. Curry won’t score 47 again like he did vs. Washington Monday. 8* Under Celtics/Warriors |
|||||||
03-16-22 | 76ers -4 v. Cavs | Top | 118-114 | Push | 0 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The way things stand currently, this would be a first round playoff matchup in the East. While the underlying metrics suggest that it is Cleveland (the current 6-seed) who has had the “better” season overall, I don’t think the upstart Cavaliers would want to see the Sixers in a seven-game series. For starters, Philly beat them 125-119 when they last met (on March 4th). The Sixers are also clearly a stronger team now (because of James Harden) than they were in the first half of the season. Harden was in the Sixers’ lineup for that March 4th win over Cleveland. He scored 25 points. Each of Philly’s first five games with Harden in the lineup saw the team score at least 125. But the L5 have been a bit of a different story with them averaging just 105.8. But that number is a little misleading because it includes a 99-82 loss at Miami where Harden sat. I should also mention Joel Embiid, who leads the NBA in scoring at 29.9 PPG. The Harden-Embiid duo clearly makes Philly one of the top teams in the East. Now I did fade the Sixers their last time out, and they lost 114-110 (at home) to Denver. But the Nuggets are a better team than the Cavs. Note that Philly did jump out to an early 17-point lead over Denver. Cleveland comes into this game banged up, playing without All-Star Jarrett Allen as well as Rajon Rondo. So I don’t expect them to play as well as they did the last time they faced this Sixers team. Before beating the Clippers in OT on Monday, the Cavs had dropped two straight and five of seven. I know this is a reversal of Monday - when I faded Philly and took Cleveland (won both bets). But the matchup calls for it as I just think the 76ers are the far better team right now. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
03-15-22 | Nets v. Magic OVER 231 | Top | 150-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Nets/Magic (7:10 ET): Yes, Orlando needed OT to get Over the total in their last game, a 116-114 loss to Philadelphia. But I think it’s highly unlikely they hold the Nets to 38.0% shooting like they did with the Sixers on Sunday. This is a high total, but for good reason as not only is Kevin Durant back, but Kyrie Irving will play for Brooklyn. I see the Nets putting up a big number tonight. While I don’t necessarily trust them to cover the spread, I do like the Over here. I had the Over in that Philly-Orlando game, so I for one welcomed overtime. The Magic, who have been playing better of late, led by 12 at halftime and were still up 10 in the 4Q. The key to building that lead was the 76ers shooting just 33% in the 1H. Again, I can’t see Brooklyn shooting that poorly tonight. The Nets have shot 50% or better from the floor in four of their last six games, a stretch that coincides with Durant coming back. The L3 games with Durant & Irving in the lineup have all seen the Nets score at least 120 points. Both Durant and Irving have turned in 50+ point performances recently. On Sunday, with Irving (unvaccinated) out of the lineup, the Nets won 110-107 over the Knicks with Durant scoring 53. The team shot just 20.7% from three-point range with non-Durant players combining to go 2 of 16. I expect much better shooting tonight. With Brooklyn likely to pile up the points here, we shouldn’t need a huge number from Orlando. Fortunately for them, the Nets are giving up 111.7 PPG this season. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Nets’ L9 road games. 10* Over Nets/Magic |
|||||||
03-14-22 | Nuggets +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Denver (7:40 ET): Playing side AND total in this matchup and let’s start by analyzing the former. Denver, despite four straight ATS losses, seems to be in a great spot here as Philadelphia is in the second night of a back to back and had to go to overtime last night to defeat Orlando (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference). This line, perhaps influenced by the recent addition of James Harden for the 76ers, opened way too high. Take the points. The Nuggets are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-115 defeat at home, which came against the Raptors. The final score there is a little deceiving as Denver led going into the 4Q. They had 99 points through three quarters, but went cold in the fourth, scoring only 16. Getting dominated in second chance points did not help matters. Still, there’s plenty of reasons to “keep the faith,” especially since the Nuggets have won five straight on the road. Philly won its first five games with Harden in the lineup, but then was blown out Thursday here at home by Brooklyn, then struggled to get by Orlando last night. The Sixers trailed by six going into the fourth quarter and have now failed to cover in four of the last five games, a sign that Harden has made them a bit overrated in the marketplace. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic and this game marks just the third time over the last month that they have been underdogs. 8* Denver |
|||||||
03-14-22 | Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Sixers (7:40 ET): Also going with the Under in this matchup. Reason being I was a little lucky to cash the Over in last night’s Sixers game, as it went to OT tied at 104. The O/U line was 222.5, so the Over was a loser in regulation, but the 22 points we got in the added five minutes were the difference maker. Philly’s previous three games had all stayed Under and while one of those was with Harden out of the lineup, they’ve generally played solid defense (except in the loss to Brooklyn). Denver needs to get back to playing better defense after allowing an average of 118.8 points over its last five games. I believe they will get back to doing so tonight. For the year, they are giving up 106.4 PPG, so it’s a big difference from what we’ve been seeing lately. Philadelphia has also allowed more points than usual over its last five games. The 76ers have posted an outstanding defensive efficiency rating when Harden and Joel Embiid are on the court together. The number had even rivaled the Celtics, the league-leaders in defensive efficiency. Denver won’t shoot 55% again like it did on Saturday, even though I believe they cover the spread here. 10* Under Nuggets/Sixers |
|||||||
03-14-22 | Clippers v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This is a bad spot for the Clippers, who only managed to squeak by the Pistons last night. Now, I know I had LA in that one, as a 4.5-point favorite on the road. They won by just four after Detroit’s Cade Cunningham made a “meaningless” layup with just 8.2 seconds remaining. But to get the SU win, the Clips had to outscore the Pistons 67-49 in the 2H. This team remains short-handed (no George or Leonard) and there’s no real sense of urgency here as they seem destined for a play-in spot in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Cavs are desperate to hold on to a top six spot in the East. They’ve lost 8 of 11 amidst several key injuries and are also just 2-8-1 ATS in that same stretch. On Saturday, the Cavs went to Chicago for a key game and lost 101-91 as 5.5-point underdogs. That leaves them just one game ahead of seventh place Toronto. But they are still fourth in both point differential and net efficiency. I think tonight is a great spot for JB Bickerstaff’s team to get back on track, despite not having some key players. Back in October, Cleveland routed the Clippers 92-79 out in LA. That helped set the tone for a rather shocking first half of the season as the Cavs were arguably the league’s most pleasant surprise. They’ve taken a hit over the last month or so, but are still a much better team than the Clippers and I look for the Cavs to get back to playing solid defense tonight. They are #2 in the NBA in scoring defense (103.7 PPG allowed) and only give up 100.6 PPG at home. Lay the points. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
03-13-22 | 76ers v. Magic OVER 223 | Top | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Over Sixers/Magic (6:10 ET): Two teams off surprising results meet Sunday in Orlando. The Sixers have had two days to recover from their 29-point beatdown at the hands of Brooklyn. That was the first time they lost with James Harden in the lineup. The fact that the loss came at the hands of Harden’s former team made it a bit more painful. Orlando, meanwhile, turned in a shocking performance on Friday, beating the T’wolves 118-110 as a 7.5-point home underdog. They were my 10* Game of the Week! That was the Magic’s second straight upset win as well as their fifth victory in the last eight games overall, so Philly must take this game seriously. I think they will. Consider that in the first five games with Harden in the lineup, the Sixers scored no fewer than 121 points. The last two matchups vs. Orlando have seen them score 116 and 123 points and that was before Harden came over. The Sixers shot just 32.3% against the Nets, a number they will easily eclipse here. They are 5-0 Over on Sundays this season. Orlando can only hope for the kind of offensive day against Philly that Brooklyn enjoyed. The Sixers gave up 40 points in the first quarter and 72 in the first half. The Magic did make 15 of 30 three-point attempts over the final three quarters against Minnesota. Their last five games have all stayed Under, but I think there’s reason to be concerned over how the Magic defense will hold up here. I do think they score enough to help send this one OVER the total. 10* Over Sixers/Magic |
|||||||
03-13-22 | Clippers -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (3:10 ET): The Pistons, 18-49 with the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, are getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers here, even if they are at home and have covered nine in a row. The Clippers will be desperate for a win here after losing in Atlanta Friday night, 112-106. The Clips at least covered the spread in that game (were +7.5), but clearly felt like they should have won, if not for some whistles not going their way. Marcus Morris’ ejection in the third quarter really hurt. The Pistons’ recent ATS run is a little shocking and with a short-handed lineup, it figures to end here. Multiple players in the regular rotation missed Friday’s 114-103 loss at Boston (where the Pistons were 14-point underdogs). Detroit lost by 11 even though the Celtics shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range. The Pistons allowed the Celtics to shoot 62% inside the arc and make 24 free throws. You also can almost never count on the Pistons’ offense, which is 28th in efficiency and 29th in points per game. The Clippers obviously are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and thus I don’t see them giving up many points here this afternoon. While LA certainly looks “safe” when it comes to making the play-in round, a loss here could be potentially devastating. It’s very rare to only have to lay a few points to go against this Pistons team, which has been an underdog in all but three games this season. It’s time to “sell high” on their ATS win streak. 8* LA Clippers |
|||||||
03-12-22 | Wolves v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:10 ET): Looking to fade Minnesota for the second night in a row. Last night worked out pretty well, didn’t it? I said it was time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, who were on a 6-0 SU and ATS win streak going into Orlando. They lost outright, as a 7.5-point favorite, 118-110. Keep in mind that the Magic entered that game with the lowest win percentage in the entire NBA. Now, without rest, the T’wolves must turn around and face the East-leading Heat on the road. I’m fading the T’wolves again, though this time we must LAY points to do so. Miami was also in action Friday as they beat Cleveland 117-105 as an eight-point favorite. The Heat are now 45-23 SU on the season and have a 2.5 game lead over Milwaukee for the top spot in the East. They are now 6-1 ATS their last seven games. Last night ensured they’d keep alive a streak which has seen them not lose B2B games in almost two months. The Heat are 13-3 SU since Feb 3 and are a top six team in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. As mentioned in yday’s analysis, Minnesota is subpar on the road (16-18 SU), mainly because of the fact it gives up an average of 116.9 PPG on their travels. The T’wolves are just 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite and I don’t think the jump in class (in terms of opponent) can be overstated here. The T’wolves previous five games saw them face the Thunder twice, Blazers twice and Magic. Those three teams are a combined 73 games below .500! The offensive production is due to curtail. 10* Miami |
|||||||
03-11-22 | Wolves v. Magic +7 | Top | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:10 ET): Minnesota couldn’t possibly be any hotter than they are right now, having won and covered six straight. The last five wins have all been by double digits, three of them by 30 or more points! But this has caused the market to take notice and tonight the T’wolves are lofty road favorites, a position they are not too familiar with being in. Yes, they did recently destroy the Thunder in OKC as a similar sized road favorite (compared to tonight). But I think the T’wolves are due for an off-night here. Orlando just pulled an upset Weds night, going to New Orleans and defeating the Pelicans 108-102 as 8.5-point road dogs. It was the Magic’s fourth win in the last seven games, a solid stretch for them. They still have the worst SU record in the NBA (17-50) entering tonight, but they played the Suns (who have the best record in the NBA) tough the other night and have just one loss by more than eight points since returning from the All-Star Break. They are 8-2 ATS L10 games with a total of 230 or higher. Minnesota has simply been shooting the lights out of late and I don’t think they can continue to do so. They are basically averaging 130 points on better than 50% shooting during the six-game win streak and that cannot be maintained. Defensively, the T’wolves struggle on the road, giving up 116.8 PPG. That’s why they have a sub-.500 record away from home. A team with a losing road record should not be favored by this many points, no matter how well they’ve been playing. Take the points. 10* Orlando |
|||||||
03-10-22 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 129-100 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): Does Brooklyn, currently in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, probably “need” this game more than Philadelphia (who is third)? Yeah. But don’t discount the motivations of James Harden tonight as he faces his former team. The 76ers are 5-0 in games with Harden in the lineup since the blockbuster trade with the Nets. They have averaged slightly more than 125 points in those five wins, four of which have come by at least 16 points. The Sixers are the better team here and I’ll lay the points. Harden sat out Philly’s 99-82 loss to Miami on Friday. But he returned to the lineup Monday as the team beat Chicago 121-106. It was actually Joel Embiid leading the way in that one, with 43 points. In the 128 minutes that Harden and Embiid have shared the court together so far, the Sixers have outscored opponents by 76 points, an incredible number! Also, the team’s defense has gotten much better, posting a defensive efficiency rating that would be better than the league-leading Celtics (when Harden and Embiid are together). The Nets are still more of a work in progress as Kyrie Irving’s “on again, off again,” status has been a problem (due to him not being vaccinated). I don’t think the team can count on him going for 50 points again like he did the other night vs. Charlotte (who is a bad defensive team). Durant continues to work his way back from injury. He and Irving simply haven’t played together enough over the L2 years and to me this remains an overrated side. The Nets are 2-11 ATS off a double digit win. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
03-09-22 | Bulls -6 v. Pistons | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (7:10 ET): The Bulls have experienced a real “downturn” of late, losing and failing to cover each of the last five games. But most of those losses have come against some of the top teams in the NBA, like Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The Bulls have had some real difficulty beating the top teams in the league, but one team they have not had trouble beating resides at the bottom, that being tonight’s opponent, the Pistons. The Bulls are 10-0 SU/ATS the past 10 meetings including 3-0 this season. Wouldn’t you know though that Detroit comes into Wednesday riding an 8-0 ATS win streak. They are 6-2 SU in those eight games as well. It’s easily the best stretch of basketball that the Pistons have played all season. Two nights ago, here at home, they defeated Atlanta in overtime by a score of 113-110. It was their third straight SU win, the first time they’ve managed a win streak of this length since March of 2019. So something is going to have to give here. It’s a matter of which trend(s) do you believe in? Recently, the Pistons have clearly been better than the Bulls. But, long-term, the Bulls have certainly had the Pistons’ number. I’m looking for the Bulls’ mastery of this rivalry to continue. They might be 0-9 SU this year against Miami, Philadelphia and Milwaukee - the three teams ahead of them in the East - but their record against the rest of the conference is 24-8 SU. The three wins over the Pistons have been by an average of 22.3 PPG. Nikola Vucevic (questionable) could return tonight. Regardless, the Bulls aren’t as bad as they’ve looked recently nor are the Pistons as good as they’ve looked recently. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
03-08-22 | Cavs v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:10 ET): Already without Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo, Cleveland just lost All-Star Center Jarrett Allen to injury in Sunday’s 104-96 win over Toronto. One of the surprise teams in the league this year, the Cavs have started to slip, dropping six of their last eight and are now sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. There’s a chance Rondo could return Tuesday, but I certainly don’t like the idea of the Cavs laying points on the road right now, even facing a team like Indiana, who is coming off a rough road trip. While the Pacers essentially “waved the white flag” on their 2021-22 season at the trade deadline (including sending LeVert to Cleveland), they are better than their record. No team has been more snakebit in close games as Indiana’s SU record is just 2-11 in games decided by three points or less. But even after losing 11 of their last 14 overall, there’s some hope here with the starting backcourt of Brogdon and Haliburton playing together. Brogdon had 27 in Sunday’s loss to Washington while Haliburton has scored 20+ in six of the ten games since coming over from Sacramento. This will be the Pacers’ first time playing at home since blowing out Boston here on Feb 27th. Considering who they faced (Orlando twice, Detroit and Washington), the just completed road trip should have been better than 1-3 SU, but the bottom line is the Pacers are a far better team at home (where they actually own a positive point differential). Cleveland is basically a .500 team on the road (17-16 SU) and now playing short-handed. Take the points. 10* Indiana |
|||||||
03-07-22 | Blazers +15 v. Wolves | Top | 81-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:10 ET): Let’s try this again as we should have had a win Saturday with the Blazers getting a similar number of points, but they fell apart late and ended up either not covering or pushing, depending on when you bet them. Portland was severely short-handed for the contest, but was leading at the half and only down one with 8:41 left. To not cover, as a double-digit underdog, was a really bad break. Now Minnesota has been red hot, winning and covering four straight. They’ve averaged 132.3 PPG during that win streak, which has seen them shoot 52.8% or better in every game. But they are due to cool off, especially after shooting a season-best 56.5% in the last game. That came on the second night of a back to back, after they had made 22 of 47 three-pointers and turned in their highest scoring half of the season. There’s just no way those numbers are sustainable. So with the T’wolves likely to cool off, look for Portland to take advantage and stay within the number this time. Before Saturday, the Blazers had lost three in a row by 30+ points, so as disappointing as that last result was, it marked an improvement. As beat up as they are, I just can’t see a fifth straight double digit loss here. The first two meetings vs. Minnesota this year were decided by a total of seven points. 10* Portland |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Blazers +14 v. Wolves | Top | 121-135 | Push | 0 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
8* Portland (8:10 ET): The Blazers are in a terrible way right now, but this is a good spot for them to ambush the T’wolves, who are playing the second night of a back to back. Minnesota obviously looked quite impressive last night, easily dispatching OKC, 138-101 as a 9.5-point road favorite. But there, it was the T’wolves in the advantageous situation as the Thunder were coming off a shock 119-107 win as double digit underdogs. Minnesota is rarely a favorite of this size, so I will play accordingly. Portland certainly cannot play any worse than it has each of the L3 games where they’ve lost by 30+ points each time out! That is insane. I know that they are short-handed and the roster was reshuffled at the trade deadline, but the team should not be THIS bad. Note those three losses came to Phoenix, Golden State and Denver, all of whom are firmly established in the top six in the West and the Suns and Warriors are the top two teams in the NBA. Minnesota is NOT at that level. Before the All-Star Break, the Blazers were on a four-game win streak (season best) which included wins over Milwaukee and Memphis. There is simply no way Minnesota can match what they did last night when they made 22 of 47 three-pointers and had their highest-scoring half of the season. Six players scored at least 15 points. Can you say “letdown spot?” These teams have faced off twice previous to this and while Portland lost both, the games were decided by a total of seven points. This is a great sell-high (Minnesota)/buy low (Portland) spot. 8* Portland |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Knicks v. Suns UNDER 223.5 | Top | 114-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
8* Under Knicks/Suns (10:10 ET): Two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum are meeting Friday night on ESPN. The Suns have firmly established themselves as the best team in the NBA right now. They are 50-12 on the season and have won 20 of their last 23 games. Following a RARE two-game losing skid (lost to New Orleans and Utah), the Suns bounced back in a major way on Wednesday with a 30-point beatdown of Portland. They are surprisingly short favorites tonight against the moribund Knicks, but there’s a reason for that (more on it in a moment). The Knicks have lost six in a row and 10 of their last 11. They are 0-6 ATS L6 and 1-10 ATS L11 as well. Even making the play-in round now seems like a bit of a stretch as the Knicks trail the 10th place Hawks by five games. Playing better defense would help. Over its last five games, NY has given up an average of 120.2 PPG. All five games have gone Over the total. This is a team that normally allows “just” 107.3 PPG. But, as alluded to earlier, they are catching a major break tonight. That major break is that the Suns won’t have Chris Paul or Devin Booker aka “their starting backcourt.” I know that they just dropped 120 on Portland without the pair, but it seems unlikely that they could repeat that performance here. Note that tonight’s total is about 10 points higher compared to the season’s first Knicks-Suns matchup, which had both Paul and Booker in the lineup! I’m less concerned about how the absences will affect Phoenix’s defense, which is #3 in the NBA in efficiency. Also, the Knicks are 27th in pace. 8* Under Knicks/Suns |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers -7 | Top | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Am I falling prey to “recency bias” here? I don’t think so. The 76ers have won four in a row, while averaging 126 PPG, the last three coming with new arrival James Harden in the lineup and those wins have all been by 15 points or greater. Harden has been great so far with 82 points, 27 rebounds and 37 assists. Now the Sixers have faced the Knicks twice and Minnesota. But the Cleveland team they host tonight seems to be heading in reverse and a surprising first half of the season. I’ll lay the points in this one. Not only are the oddsmakers seemingly catching up the Cavaliers, apparently so is the rest of the NBA. Over the L6 games, the Cavs are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 straight up. The streak began with a loss to Philly, pre-Harden. Now it may seem as if I’m being unfair to Cleveland as injuries have taken their toll. But with Caris Levert and Rajon Rondo again expected to be out for tonight’s game, this team is at a disadvantage. They were blown out at home by Charlotte, 119-98, on Wednesday. With Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are now a legit threat to take over the East. It’s odd to see the Sixers have a better record on the road, considering last year they were MUCH stronger here in the City of Brotherly Love. Defensively, they are allowing just 105.5 PPG at home this season and Cleveland has failed to even score 100 in three of its last six games. Look for the Sixers to continue rolling with Harden and move closer to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Grizzlies v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:40 ET): Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off tonight in Beantown. Memphis is third in the West with a 43-20 record and has won 24 of its last 30 games. Not to be outdone, Boston has won 12 of 14. Though they are currently just sixth in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics actually have the best YTD point differential in the East and I think they are a lock to move up the standings. Even with Jaylen Brown ruled out tonight, I believe the home team should be favored in this one. Now stopping the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant is a challenge for any team. Morant has scored 98 points in the last two games, setting a new franchise record twice. He scored 46 vs. Chicago, then 52 vs. San Antonio (on 22 of 30 shooting!). But I believe Boston, one of the top defensive teams in the league, is uniquely suited to slow down Morant. This is the #2 team in defensive efficiency for the season and they are #1 over the last month or so. Their only two losses over the last month both came in the second night of a back to back. The Celtics probably needed yesterday off after rallying back from 17 down to defeat Atlanta. I can’t see them falling into that kind of hole again here. I have a ton of respect for Memphis, but think they will fall to the 4-seed by season’s end (Utah is better). Morant is probably due for an “off game” as well. As a team, the Grizzlies shot the lights out vs. San Antonio on Monday and also held the Spurs to 28% from three-point range. They can’t count on that kind of disparity here against a better team. 8* Boston |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Bulls v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 124-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): These teams met right after the All-Star Break with Chicago winning 112-108. Fortunately, I bet Atlanta early enough in the day that I still cashed plus the points. Since that win, the Bulls have lost two in a row, falling to Memphis (116-110) and Miami (112-99). I’m on the record as saying I think the Bulls are likely to slip a bit in the Eastern Conference standings, where they are currently second despite having the sixth best point differential. Once again, I’ll be taking the points with Atlanta. The Hawks rebounded from that last loss to the Bulls by beating the Raptors 127-120. Unfortunately, then they blew a 17-point lead against the Celtics and ended up losing 107-98. Now getting up 17 on a team that’s been as hot as Boston is an achievement. But the Hawks really shot themselves in the foot with poor shot selection down the stretch. Expect better shot selection here tonight and it should be mentioned how the Hawks are much better at home (where they are 18-13 SU on the season). This is a big revenge game for Atlanta. Not only did they lose last week in Chicago, but they are 0-3 SU against the Bulls in 2021-22. The Hawks are not only revenge-minded, but more desperate than the Bulls because they are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and just one game away from not making the playoffs at all. I do think they will move up, but with Kevin Durant set to return for Brooklyn, it’s going to be tough to move up very far. The Bulls have struggled defensively ever since losing Ball and Caruso. Trae Young had only 14 points in the last meeting. He’s scored 72 in the two games since. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Thunder +14.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:10 ET): The Thunder have obviously struggled to win games this season, but only Memphis has a better ATS record, OKC has covered at a 64.4% rate this season. That said, they did lose by 21 at home to Sacramento on Monday night. You’ve got to think we’re getting a bounce back effort from the Thunder tonight and I will take the big number. The Thunder have played Denver tough in the two previous meetings, both of which were played in OKC. They won outright (by 14!) in the first one, then only lost the rematch by four points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back in the lineup now and he has scored 30 or more in all three games since returning. I just think this is a good time to “sell high” on Denver, who is a season-best 11 games over .500 and coming off a 32-point win over Portland. The Nuggets are still without some key players. Looking at the Nuggets’ current six-game win streak, only twice have they prevailed by more than 10 and twice they won by only a single point. 10* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Knicks +10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 108-123 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
8* New York (7:40 ET): The Knicks are going for immediate revenge here as they lost to the Sixers, at home, 125-109 on Sunday. The team, which made the playoffs last year, has now failed to cover the spread in 9 of its last 10 games and finds itself on the outside of the playoffs, four games back of the Hawks. It’s now or never for NY if they are to make a playoff push. Though tonight’s rematch is on the road, I don’t see the Knicks getting blown out. I’m taking the points. The Sixers have won three in a row, all on the road. But they are also 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. This will be the Sixers’ first home game since 2/15 when they were absolutely humiliated (losing by 48) to Boston. Here, all we are needing is the underdog to stay within single digits. The Sixers are winning by an average of just two points per game at home this season. They are third in the Eastern Conference coming into tonight, but my power ratings consider them the fifth best team. Note that on Sunday, it was only a two-point game entering the 4Q. 8* New York |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Mavs v. Lakers +6 | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:00 ET): It’s getting to be desperate times for these Lakers, who are six games below .500 and just got their doors blown off, 123-95, at home by New Orleans on Sunday. Certainly, the best Laker fans can hope for is making the play-in round for a second straight year, which does not match the preseason expectations for this club. LeBron James has not endeared himself to management with recent comments about a possible second return to Cleveland. The team was soundly booed off the court after getting blown out by the Pelicans. But I think this is a solid “buy low” spot on the Lakers. It’s a national TV game, at home, and they aren’t going to want to be blown out yet again. They’re facing a Dallas team that I took on Sunday and it ended up being a very fortunate outright winner as the Mavs came back from 21 down to stun the Warriors 107-101 as a 3.5-point underdog. I’ll take the win, but it’s almost as if Golden State “fell asleep at the wheel,” scoring just 13 points in the 4Q and shooting 28.2% from three-point range for the game. As I said in my analysis, the Warriors were short-handed for that game (no Thompson or Green). The Lakers won’t have Anthony Davis, but they do have LeBron James and are getting points at home. The Mavericks are wrapping up a five-game road trip here and have a rematch with the Warriors (in Dallas) on deck. I feel that this game is way more important to the home team and thus taking the points is the best option here. The Lakers are 9-2 ATS this season after scoring 100 pts or less the previous game. 8* LA Lakers |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets OVER 229.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Over Clippers/Rockets (8:10 ET): Second time in a row these teams are facing off, which is probably just fine as far as the Clippers are concerned, considering that the Rockets have now lost nine in a row and 13 of their last 14. It was a low-scoring game when they met on Sunday, 99-98, with the Clippers rallying to win in the 4Q. The Under was an easy winner there (by more than 30 points!), but you should expect a lot more points from tonight’s rematch and I’m calling for an Over. Houston games average the most possessions in the league as they play at the fastest tempo. More possessions (theoretically) should lead to more points. The thing is neither team shot all that well on Sunday as the Clippers made only 44.2% of their attempts while the Rockets were down at 38.0%. The teams did combine for 76 three-point attempts and there’s no reason to believe we won’t see a similar number tonight. For the year, the Clippers and Rockets combine to average 73 3PA per game. The Rockets also have the league’s worst defensive efficiency rating, not a surprise seeing as how they are allowing 117.8 PPG, easily the most in the NBA. Sunday marked the first time since November 6th that they held an opponent below 100 points. Even so, Houston has still allowed 123.8 PPG over its last five contests. Los Angeles is a lock to score a lot more here and Houston should be more effective inside the arc than they were on Sunday (just 18 of 50 on 2PA). It’s a big increase in points that the oddsmakers are asking for, but then again the Over is 18-9 in Rockets’ home games. 10* Over Clippers/Rockets |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Chicago (7:40 ET): This is a huge game for the Bulls. Not just because they are a game back of the Eastern Conference lead, but they are also 0-2 vs. the Heat in the 2021-22 season. Those losses were by three in Chicago and 26 here in Miami and both came before Christmas. The Bulls had won six in a row going into Saturday’s game with Memphis, where they ended up losing by six. As the underdog, I like them plus the points here on Monday. Miami is coming off its highest scoring game since Opening Night. They defeated San Antonio 133-129 on Saturday to improve to 2-0 since the All-Star Break. I find it very difficult to believe that the Heat can match its shooting from the other night as they made 56.6% from the field against the Spurs. It should be noted that the team is 1-6 straight up the last three seasons when coming off a game where they scored 130 or more points. The Heat may be 8-1 SU over their L9 games, but they have also failed to cover the number in four of the last five. Chicago, who has yet to have a losing month all season, is desperate for a “marquee” win this season. Including the 0-2 record vs. Miami, the Bulls are just 1-10 SU against teams with a win percentage of .600 or better. Despite injuries, they continue to lean on DeMar DeRozan, who has 10 straight games with 30+ points. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact DeRozan has shot 50% or better from the field in 8 of those 10 games. He and his teammates will shoot better tonight than they did vs. Memphis. The Bulls are 19-4 ATS this season off a non-conference game. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
02-27-22 | Mavs +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:40 ET): The Mavs let one slip away Friday against the Jazz. They were up seven at halftime after shooting 56% from the field and making 10 three-pointers. But the offense went cold in the 2H (just 48 points) and they went down 114-109 as 6.5-point underdogs. That result leaves them now tied with Denver for fifth place in the Western Conference. Things get no easier on Sunday night as the Mavs stay on the road to face Golden State. But the Warriors are not at full strength right now and this is a game the road team can steal. Take the points. The Warriors are second in the West, six games back of the Suns. I do expect that gap to shrink over the course of the next couple months, but for right now the Dubs are still without Draymond Green and Klay Thompson is questionable for tonight. They were dominant on Thursday, winning by 37 in Portland, but the Mavs are a far better team than the Blazers. Golden State actually went into the All-Star Break on an 0-7 ATS slide at the betting window while Dallas is 7-1 ATS its last eight games. The irony of Dallas’ defensive breakdown Friday night is that they are one of the league’s top defensive teams. They allow just 103.5 PPG (tied for 2nd in the league) and play at the slowest pace in the league. Controlling the tempo will go a long way here in limiting the Warriors offensively. In two previous meetings, Dallas has held Steph Curry to 3 of 19 shooting from three-point range. I expect this to be a close game where having points in our “back pocket” will be huge. 8* Dallas |
|||||||
02-27-22 | Jazz -1 v. Suns | Top | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
10* Utah (3:40 ET): With Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell both back in the fold, the Jazz are beginning to resemble the team that was quite dominant in the early part of the season (began 26-9 SU). They’ve slipped to fourth in the West, but I think Utah is a lot closer to the top two (Phoenix, Golden State) than most realize and they are better than third place Memphis. Coming from behind to defeat Dallas on Friday was a solid start to the second half of the season and I think the Jazz are prepared to make a definitive “statement” this afternoon on national TV against Phoenix. There’s been some substantial line movement for this game as the Suns are going to be without Chris Paul and Cameron Payne. This puts the home team at a significant disadvantage for a matchup that would have been pretty even, if they were at full strength. I faded the Suns on Friday when they lost outright at home to New Orleans, 117-102, as a 6.5-point favorite. You could see the effect of not having Paul on the floor as the offense grew stagnant. Also, historically, the Suns’ turnover rate goes way up when not having Paul in the lineup. This is a double revenge game for Utah, who lost twice to Phoenix last month, by six and eight points. The games were played in a three-day span and the Jazz were without Mitchell and Gobert for both games. Mike Conley also missed the second meeting. Yet Utah was actually ahead in the 4Q of that game, despite being without three All Stars. Now it’s Phoenix playing with a depleted roster. While the Suns must still be respected, I’m expecting a bit of a second-half decline from them while the Jazz should surge into the top three in the Western Conference. Love this spot for the Jazz. 10* Utah |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Kings +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (9:10 ET): These teams are meeting for the second time in three days. While Denver ended up “running away” with a 128-110 victory on Thursday, its second double digit win over Sacramento this season, the game was actually much closer most of the way. The Kings’ deficit was only five points entering the 4Q and that’s despite poor shooting from three-point range (ended up 9 of 29). I anticipate the Kings will shoot better tonight and thus taking the points is the move here. Now is also probably a great time to fade the Nuggets as they are a season-best nine games above .500. The goal for them is obviously to finish in the top six of the Western Conference, which they probably will, but this is a lot of points to lay for a team that has twice won by a single point during its current four-game win streak. The Nuggets also shot 55.8% from the floor on Thursday, which I cannot seem them duplicating tonight. They are just 15-20 ATS as a favorite in 2021-22. The Kings radically changed their roster at the trade deadline as they are desperate to end the league’s longest playoff drought (2006). Entering Saturday, they are 3.5 games out of the final play-in spot as they’ve dropped three in a row going back to before the All-Star Break. It feels like this five-game road trip is going to be a “tipping point” either way for their season. I just don’t seem them losing big again, and honestly an outright win seems more likely in this situation. They are 5-1 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. 10* Sacramento |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Raptors v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:40 ET): This is a TERRIBLE spot for Toronto, who just got wiped out last night in Charlotte. It was a 32-point loss at Charlotte in the Raptors’ first game after the All-Star Break. While they were a hot team prior to the Break, winning 9 of 11, we saw none of that last night as the Raptors trailed by as many as 41 points in the 3Q! Pascal Siakam played, despite flu-like symptoms, and shot just 3 of 13 from the field. The Raptors were outrebounded badly and let the Hornets shoot 55% overall. Atlanta lost a close on Thursday, 112-108 in Chicago. They fell victim to DeMar DeRozan as a lot of teams have this month. The Bulls scored the game’s final seven points. The Hawks ended up being a bit short-handed as De’Andre Hunter missed the 2H because of illness, Lou Williams played just 12 minutes and John Collins and Gorgui Deng were both out. Yet the Hawks were right there at the end and that’s despite shooting just 8 of 28 from three-point range and 18 of 27 at the free throw line. Both of these teams obviously feel they will play better on Saturday. But the Hawks are better rested and at home. Trae Young is certainly going to have a bounce back effort here after going just 3 of 17 and scoring 14 points on Thursday. Atlanta also needs the win more as they are 10th in the East, only one game ahead of Washington. This is a double revenge spot for the Hawks, who have twice lost to the Raptors over the last month. I like them to get the job done. 8* Atlanta |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 217 | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* Under Mavs/Jazz (9:10 ET): Dallas was the top Under team in the league over the first half (of the season) with a 36-21-2 mark. Now, the Under has been hitting a lot more regularly in their HOME games (22-8-1), but what is interesting about that is the average total number of points per game scored in Dallas home games (207.8) is not all that different from what we see on the road (212.3). Facing a Utah team that has gone Under in six of seven games in February, I expect a low-scoring first game post-All Star Break Friday night. The way things stand right now in the Western Conference, this would be a first round playoff matchup. Utah is 4th, though I believe there’s a good chance they will catch and pass Memphis for 3rd by the end of the regular season. The Jazz are one of the NBA’s highest scoring teams (113.7 PPG), however their defense has been outstanding this month with 106 being the most points allowed in any game. Dallas is a solid 5th in the West, also having won six of its last seven games. These teams have met just one time so far this season and it was on X-Mas with Utah winning a high-scoring game, 120-116 here in Salt Lake City. The Mavs played that game short-handed. Tonight, look for them to control the tempo (they place at the slowest pace in the league) in order to limit the damage Utah can do offensively. Again, this is the first game back after a long All-Star Break and shooters could be rusty on both sides. 10* Under Mavs/Jazz |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:10 ET): The Suns played last night and won 124-104 in OKC. Thus they picked up right where they left off before the All-Star Break and have now won eight in a row (and 19 of 20!) and continue to pace the Western Conference with a remarkable 49-10 overall record. This is the best team in the NBA right now, there’s no denying that. But laying this many points, in the second night of a back to back, immediately following a long break seems like as good a time as any to fade them. New Orleans is looking to get that last play-in spot. They are 12th in the West, but only 1.5 games back of Portland. Before the Break, they dropped four of five (all at home). But, unlike the Suns, the Pelicans are rested coming into Friday’s tilt. Also, while the overall record may not sound all that impressive, consider the fact the Pelicans started the year 3-16. Since that time, they’ve played .500 ball and been competitive. They now have CJ McCollum, who they acquired from Portland in a trade at the deadline. Lost in the Suns’ margin of victory last night is the fact they don’t have Chris Paul (injured) right now. They didn’t need their floor leader against a hapless side like the Thunder, but here it should matter more. I know the Suns have beaten the Pelicans twice so far this season, both times by double digits. But the situation really favors the underdog tonight and they didn’t shoot well in either of those first two head to head matchups. They’re a better team now than they were in January (when they last faced PHX). Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
02-24-22 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:10 ET): Chicago entered the All-Star Break tied with Miami for the best record in the Eastern Conference. However, there are certain metrics (point differential, net efficiency) that suggest the Bulls are a little lucky to be in the position they currently find themselves in. I’ve got them rated fifth among the Eastern Conference contenders, which obviously suggests a drop here in the second half of the season. Thus, I’ll be fading them coming out the break tonight as they are laying points. Atlanta got off to a VERY slow start this season, but has clawed its way into 10th place in the East and that would give them a shot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Hawks can necessarily finish any better than 8th, but they should have a better second half to the season than they did the first half. The team averaged 127 points in a pair of wins before the break and I think they should put up some points here as Chicago has not been the same defensively since losing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso to injury. The Bulls are on a five-game win streak coming out of the break, but the Hawks have won 11 of their last 16. All eyes are on DeMar DeRozan, who is the first Chicago player to score 30+ points in eight straight games since Michael Jordan. But Atlanta’s Trae Young is averaging 29.2 PPG his last nine games as well. Remember that the Hawks were in the Eastern Conference finals last season. They remember losing a pair of games to Chicago right after X-Mas and I think will be out for revenge. Take the points. 10* Atlanta |
|||||||
02-17-22 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The 76ers were absolutely housed Tuesday night in Boston, losing 135-87 as a two-point underdog. You can bet they will be eager to wash away that embarrassment as they play their final game before the All-Star Break. Now it’s a tough one, in Milwaukee, on TNT. But the Bucks have failed to cover three in a row, losing two of the games straight up. They were blown out in Phoenix, then lost as 12-point favorites here at home to Portland, a real shocker. The Bucks needed 50 from Giannis Antetokounmpo to down Indiana on Tuesday 128-119. While Giannis has seven 40+ point games already this season (already a career-high), the team cannot count on such a performance every night. The Bucks are just 7-15 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning record. They are also 0-5 ATS when off three consecutive Overs. Both situations apply here. As you’d expect, that loss to the Celtics saw Philly’s Joel Embiid turn in his lowest point total in quite some time. Embiid has been a beast this season and I expect a big game from him tonight. Yes, the Sixers are still without James Harden, but it’s still the same team that’s been in the top five of the East for most of the season. I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Sixers as Tuesday was the sixth worst loss in franchise history. They are not that bad and will show up here to compete. 8* Philadelphia |
|||||||
02-17-22 | Heat v. Hornets +4.5 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:10 ET): The Hornets could really use a win going into the All-Star Break. They’ve lost eight of their last nine games overall including six straight at home. Few setbacks were more painful than what happened Tuesday night in Minnesota. Charlotte led that game the majority of the way, but allowed the T’wolves to tie it and force overtime. It ended up being a 126-120 loss for the Hornets. I don’t even want to get into what that did for my Under play (on 244). Anyway, I do expect the Hornets to come out pretty fired up tonight and cover the spread. Take the points. Charlotte is the highest scoring team in the NBA currently, averaging 113.8 points per game. So they’ve got that going for them. The problem is that they haven’t been scoring a ton recently. Only twice in the last six home games have they topped 101. But they did have 108 in regulation vs. Minnesota and before that scored 118 vs. Memphis and 141 vs, Detroit. Having just blown a 13-point 4Q lead in their last game, the Hornets should come out motivated tonight and I’m expecting them to hit their season average. Miami is off a 107-99 loss to Dallas on Tuesday, at home. Jimmy Butler, who led the team with 29 points in that game, may not be suiting up this evening. He’s questionable with a shoulder injury. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out again (knee). So this is a great opportunity for Charlotte and adding “fuel to the fire” is that they have double revenge for a pair of losses to the Heat earlier this season. 10* Charlotte |
|||||||
02-16-22 | Blazers +11.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:10 ET): While I don’t think that the Blazers are going to be able to match their most recent performance, which was an excellent 122-107 win (as 12-point underdogs!) at Milwaukee, the chances of them being blown out here in Memphis tonight also seem remote. This is the second game of a back to back from the Grizzlies, who were 121-109 winners last night in New Orleans thanks to holding the Pelicans to a paltry 15.4% shooting from three-point range. You’ve got to think Portland shoots better than that. Right? The Blazers have won three in a row, not only upsetting Milwaukee, but the Lakers and Knicks as well. HC Chauncey Billups called the win over Milwaukee “probably our best game.” Portland outrebounded Milwaukee 58-43 and got the lead up to 21 in the third quarter. That was a really impressive win for the Blazers, who reshaped the roster at the trade deadline as they look to hold on to the last play-in spot, which they currently occupy (holding a one-game lead over New Orleans). Memphis has an incredible first half to the season as they are 41-18 SU, the third best record in the league. I actually have them rated as the fourth best team in the conference (behind Utah), although still better than everyone from the East. I just think that this spot is not ideal, laying double digits without rest and returning home after a three-game road trip. Ja Morant is on the injury report (questionable) with an ankle. The Grizzlies have actually lost twice to the Blazers this season, once by five here at home. Take the points. 10* Portland |
|||||||
02-15-22 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 223.5 | Top | 96-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
8* Over Clippers/Suns (10:00 ET): So the Clippers sure proved me wrong last night, defeating the Warriors as six-point underdogs (at home), 119-104. They shot an incredible 56.5% from the floor against the league’s most efficient defense. While they probably aren’t reaching those heights tonight, in a tough spot vs. Phoenix, any offensive regression should be “canceled out” by some defensive regression, this being the second night of a back to back. Stopping the Suns, who have topped 130 points in each of the last two games, will be tough. Steph Curry had his way with this Clippers defense in the first half last night, scoring 26 points. Curry and his teammates then cooled off considerably in the second half. The rest of the team shot just 41.2%. I don’t think the Clippers will be able to do that to the Suns. While their defense has improved somewhat, LA still allowed both Milwaukee and Memphis to score more than 130 recently. Phoenix has the second most efficient offense in all of basketball. In each of these teams’ last seven games, the Over is 6-1. Again, with tired legs, defending the Suns is likely going to be a problem tonight for the Clippers. Keep in mind that right before beating the Warriors, they allowed Luka Doncic to score nearly 100 points by himself in two games against them. On the flip side, with the All-Star Break approaching, we may not see the same defensive intensity here from the Suns. The Clippers have scored at least 109 points in 10 of their last 11 games. That would be more than enough for another Over here. 8* Over Clippers/Suns |
|||||||
02-15-22 | Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 243.5 | Top | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/T’wolves (8:10 ET): I realize that “all signs” point to the Over in this matchup, but it’s the highest O/U line of the season in the NBA and I’m going Under. Minnesota has been on a simply incredible run of Overs lately with that particular bet hitting in 16 of their last 19 contests. Eventually though, that run must subside. Why not at home where their games “only” average 214.4 PPG, which is well down from their overall season average of 225.0 PPG? While Minnesota has been surging as of late, Charlotte is heading in the opposite direction. They have dropped seven of eight and in the last game trailed 74-43 at the half. That was at home. The Hornets did defeat the T’wolves back in November, 133-115, but they shot a blistering 55.7% from the floor in that game, including 23 of 40 from three-point range. Those numbers will not be repeated tonight. Before their last two games both went Over, Charlotte was on a run of six straight Unders. The Under is also 6-0 this year when they are on exactly two days’ rest (as they are here). As I mentioned, Charlotte has lost seven of eight. In the one win, which was against the moribund Pistons, they scored 141 and shot 55.7%. But in the seven losses, they have shot no better than 42.6% from the floor. I get why this total is so high, but again, it’s the highest O/U line for any NBA game this season and very reactionary towards recent results. Even giving up the most PPG in the Eastern Conference, Hornets’ games “only” average 228.4 PPG. There’s value here on the Under. 10* Under Hornets/T’wolves |
|||||||
02-14-22 | Warriors -6 v. Clippers | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:40 ET): The Warriors appeared to be headed for a third straight defeat on Saturday. They trailed the Lakers by six with 3:47 to play, but then Klay Thompson took over and ended up with a season-high 33 points. It was a 117-115 win for the Dubs, but they have still failed to cover five in a row, a streak that includes outright losses to the Jazz and Knicks. I expect a strong effort tonight against a Clippers team that just isn’t very good. Lay the points. The Clippers also won by two points on Saturday, outlasting Dallas 99-97, despite 45 points from Luka Doncic. Doncic had 51 when the teams played on Thursday. That game was won by the Mavericks 112-105. The two games prior saw the Clips surrender 135+ points. They currently sit eighth in the West and I don’t see any upward mobility for them. Not as long as Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both remain out. These teams have not met since November. Golden State has won both meetings this year, by two at home and by 15 on the road. I’m not all concerned about the five-game ATS losing streak as the Warriors had won nine in a row before that. They are #2 overall in my power rankings (only trailing Phoenix) and continue to play great defense (#1 in efficiency). The Clippers just don’t have enough answers offensively to keep pace. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
02-12-22 | Cavs +3.5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:40 ET): Two teams that won last night are back in action on Saturday with Cleveland traveling to Philadelphia. The Cavs continue to be one of the most pleasant surprises in the league as they are second in the East (!) with a 35-21 record after coming back to defeat Indiana 120-113 last night. They actually trailed by 21 points early on (in the first quarter) but outscored the Pacers 32-17 in the fourth. It was the second time in three games that the Cavs erased a 20+ point deficit to beat the Pacers. The Sixers are 1.5 games back of the Cavs, in fifth place in the East. They beat Oklahoma City 100-87 on Friday as Joel Embiid had his 22nd consecutive game with 25+ points. A dominant third quarter was the difference against the Thunder, whom Philly held to 38.9% from the field, including 6 of 35 from three-point range. That was a much needed defensive effort as the Sixers only shot 38.7% overall themselves and were 7 of 26 from beyond the arc. The key here is that Philly continues to be short-handed as James Harden and Paul Milsap, both acquired at the trade deadline, have not yet been cleared to play. Cleveland could be without Darius Garland (questionable), but remember they just went out and got Caris LeVert from Indiana. It had to be painful for Pacers’ fans seeing LeVert go for 22 last night. This Cavs team is pretty deep as seven players were in double figures last night. They are also #1 in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
02-11-22 | Wolves v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:10 ET): This game has the highest O/U line of the NBA season. Points are to be expected with the Timberwolves having gone Over in 11 of the last 12 games and the Bulls doing the same in seven of their last eight. But the key for me here is that the T’wolves are dealing with multiple injuries to their starting lineup, putting them at a distinct disadvantage. When they don’t have their full starting five intact, this is a much different team. Now obviously Chicago knows a thing or two about injuries as well. Missing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso has really hurt the team defense, but the Bulls just turned in their best game in a while, beating Charlotte on the road, 121-109 as 1.5-point favorites. They’ve fallen out of first place in the Eastern Conference, but the Bulls still have won four of seven despite the recent defensive issues. It helps that they are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency and DeMar DeRozan has gone for 30+ points in four consecutive games. The team has shot better than 51% from the floor in six of its last nine contests. Minnesota is coming off a 132-119 loss at Sacramento. Six players are currently listed as questionable for tonight, including Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley. This is the Timberwolves’ third road game in four nights and it comes after playing two (both in Sacramento) on the West Coast. The T’wolves’ offense hasn’t been nearly as efficient as the Bulls and defensively they are giving up 116.5 PPG on the road this season. This looks like a spot where the home team will roll. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
02-10-22 | Raptors v. Rockets +8.5 | Top | 139-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:10 ET): These two teams certainly couldn’t be trending in more opposite directions as Toronto has won and covered seven straight while Houston is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS its last eight games. But they don’t call the pointspread “the great equalizer” for no reason. Tonight’s game not only marks the second game of a back to back for the Raptors, it is also their third road game in four nights. Eventually this team is going to run out of “steam” and not be able to win by a significant margin. Look for that to be the case here. Last night saw the Raptors win in OKC, 117-98. They scored a few more than I thought they would (I played the Under), thanks to shooting 51.1% from the floor. Shooting 68.4% in the 1Q essentially handed them the game right off the bat. But I don’t think that kind of shooting can/will continue. The current win streak, and last few games in particular, have seen the Raptors shoot far above their season average. It’s also worth noting that four of the seven wins have been by six points or less, or in overtime. Houston just got swept in a home and home by New Orleans. Incredibly, the last seven games have all seen Rockets’ opponents shoot better than 51% from the floor. You just don’t see that very often, even from teams as low in the standings as this one. Turnovers have been a massive issue for the Rockets, but I’m going to call for a “cleaner game” here tonight and coupled with inevitable defensive improvement, taking the points in this spot seems prudent. Toronto is 8-2 ATS playing with no rest, but only winning by four points per game and while this is their third game in a row being road favorites, it’s just the fourth time ALL YEAR (the first was an outright loss in Detroit). 10* Houston |
|||||||
02-09-22 | Raptors v. Thunder UNDER 207.5 | Top | 117-98 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Raptors/Thunder (8:10 ET): For the sixth straight time, Toronto came out ahead a winner on Monday. I had them as they won 116-101 in Charlotte. It was the second time in three games I threw my money behind the Raptors, having previously done so when they beat Chicago last Thursday. Turns out I could have backed them in any of these six games, as not only are they 6-0 straight up, but also 6-0 ATS. They’ve got to like their chances of extending the win streak to seven games as they face OKC tonight. This spread is a little “rich for my blood,” however there’s also no chance I back the Thunder without their leading scorer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) against a red hot team like the Raptors. Oklahoma City is last in the league in scoring (101.0 PPG) and 29th in offensive efficiency. In three of the last five games and 6 of the last 10, they have not broken 100 points. Keep in mind that two of those games went to overtime, so only once in that 10-game stretch have they topped 103 in regulation. I don’t see OKC doing much offensively in this game either. The one positive for them though is that they have held their last five opponents to an average of 102.2 PPG. Toronto’s offensive numbers have gone “through the roof” during the win streak, but two of the wins required overtime. A 124-120 win in Miami went to triple overtime. The last two games have been vs. Atlanta and Charlotte, two of the worst defensive teams in the league. I sense we’re in for a fairly low-scoring battle here. 10* Under Raptors/Thunder |
|||||||
02-08-22 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -8.5 | Top | 109-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
02-07-22 | Raptors -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:10 ET): Teams trending in different directions meet Monday in Charlotte. The Raptors are 5-0 SU/ATS their last five games while the Hornets are 1-4 SU/ATS. After four straight close wins, one when I took them against Chicago, the Raptors beat Atlanta 125-114 on Friday. That was their second win over a Hawks team that is 8-3 SU its last 11 games. Toronto shot 56.8% from the floor, including 17 of 27 from three-point range. They’ve climbed into the top six in the Eastern Conference standings. Charlotte’s last two losses, to Cleveland and Miami, both occurred here at home. The Hornets held second half leads in both games, but really wilted Saturday vs. the Heat, eventually losing 104-86. Gordon Hayward was scoreless, on 0 for 7 shooting, in his second game back from an ankle injury. Let’s also not forget that Charlotte is dead last in the East in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 PPG. Thus, it’s a major concern that they are averaging just 96 PPG themselves over the last four contests. These teams met two weeks ago, north of the border, and the Raptors won 125-113. It was another efficient offensive game as the Raptors shot 52.4% and made 16 threes. Look for them to continue to roll tonight. 10* Toronto |
|||||||
02-06-22 | Celtics v. Magic UNDER 215.5 | Top | 116-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* Under Celtics/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando, who has the worst record in the league, has seen a recent surge in scoring, both at the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. The team’s last five games have all gone Over the total. They’ve allowed an average of 118 PPG during this stretch, including 135 yesterday to Memphis, but it’s also been five straight games of them scoring 110+ points, which is rather abnormal for a team that’s 28th in the league at 103.3 PPG for the season. So what I’m saying is you should expect the Magic to start scoring less. Let’s start here, the second game of a back to back, a situation that sees them average only 100 PPG. They are facing a Boston team that’s won four in a row and six of its last seven. In five of those six wins, the Celtics have held their opponent below the century mark. In a previous visit to Orlando, which was pretty early in the season, the Celtics came here and won 92-79, holding the Magic to 32.1% shooting, including 9 of 43 from three-point range. Boston’s four-game win streak is a season-high as they are now in 8th place in the Eastern Conference. They are actually tied for the fourth best point differential, so I’d expect them to continue climbing. This is a bit of a “tricky” spot though, as it’s an easy game to overlook with Brooklyn on deck. The Under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last four road games as well as 6-1 their L7 games overall. It’s 7-0 when they are on the road and facing an opponent with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* Under Celtics/Magic |
|||||||
02-06-22 | 76ers -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (3:40 ET): The 76ers have lost two in a row. These losses leave them fifth in the East, but only two games out of first. Tied for first (with Miami) is Chicago, but I’m not banking on the Bulls finishing atop the heap. Five teams, the Sixers among them, have better point differentials over the course of the season. You may recall that just recently (Thursday), I played against the Bulls when they went to Toronto. They lost there, 127-120 in overtime, as a 4.5-point dog. It was impressive that they were able to bounce back the following night and beat the Pacers 122-115 on the road. But I see a downturn coming. Five of the last six games have seen Chicago shoot better than 51% from the floor. That’s quite the stretch of hot shooting and in my view, it’s likely to subside. Something to take note of is the Bulls are tied for 19th in defensive efficiency and give up 109.7 points per game. So it’s been imperative that they shoot as well as they have. But if the hot shooting starts to curtail, then the lack of defense probably means trouble. Case in point; they’ve shot poorly in two losses to Philly this season. The last time these teams met was back in November, but the Bulls made only 40.2% of their FG attempts and lost 114-105 here at home. They also lost 103-98 in Philly two days prior. In the two losses, they’ve gone just 13 of 50 from three-point range. The Sixers got off to a hot start in Dallas Friday night, but scored only 35 points in the 2H, mostly facing a zone. I just think the Sixers are better (notable they’re favored!), especially seeing as the Bulls will probably be short-handed. Philly has beaten Chicago nine straight times. 8* Philadelphia |
|||||||
02-05-22 | Suns v. Wizards +8.5 | Top | 95-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): For the Suns and Wizards, the last month or so has gone quite differently. Phoenix has raced to the best record in the NBA at 41-10 SU while Washington has fallen off and is now three games below .500, outside the top 10 in the East. But this is a lot of points that the Wizards are getting at home tonight. They just won for us, upsetting Philadelphia on the road Wednesday, 106-103 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Suns are off their first loss in more than three weeks. This is a good spot to take the points. Now Washington’s only two wins since Jan 12 have both come against the Sixers. They also beat them 117-98 on Jan 17. That’s still the last time the Wizards won a home game. Let it be known though that four of their five straight losses in the Nation’s capital have been by five points or less. Bradley Beal may be out, but Kyle Kuzma stepped up with 24 points on Weds, leading five players in double figures. This team averages just over 110 PPG at home, so I’m not worried about the offense here. Phoenix just gave up 124 points in its loss to Atlanta Thursday. That ended an 11-game win streak. Everyone is going to be expecting the Suns to get back in the win column here, but this feels like a total “letdown” spot as they’ve got “bigger games” (at Chicago and Philadelphia) on deck. When these teams met earlier this year, Phoenix was favored by only nine at home. I believe the home dog will play surprisingly well in this spot. 10* Washington. |
|||||||
02-04-22 | Thunder +8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (10:10 ET): The Thunder obviously aren’t a very good team, but they are pesky. An underdog in all but two games this season, they have a 32-17 ATS record. That’s the top cover rate in the league. Despite not having leading scorer Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, the team has won its last two games - upsetting Portland and Dallas. It’s another matchup with Portland tonight, and don’t fall for the revenge angle. The Blazers are also not a very good team and are missing their top scorer (Damian Lillard). It was a 98-81 OKC victory when these teams met Monday. Portland was playing the second night of a back to back after losing 130-118 in Chicago Sunday afternoon. They scored just 50 points over the final three quarters in the loss to the Thunder. Offense was again an issue on Wednesday (another time I played against them) when they fell 99-94 to the LeBron-less Lakers. Once again, in three of the four quarters, the Blazers were held to 22 points or less. This isn’t a good defensive team either; they rank bottom five in the league in points allowed. The loss to the Lakers also dropped Portland to 2-8 ATS this season following a game where they allowed fewer than 100 points. They’re back in that same situation again here. This spread is just too high for a team that’s being outscored by four points per game this season. Oklahoma City is 16-9 ATS on the road and 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win as a dog. Luguentz Dort has averaged 25 points over the L3 games, filling in nicely for Alexander. 8* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
02-04-22 | Bulls v. Pacers UNDER 231.5 | Top | 122-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Bulls/Pacers (7:10 ET): So the Bulls have now gone Over in four straight games. The Pacers have gone Over in six straight games. Looking at these recent results, for both teams, there’s a clear surge in the number of points being scored & allowed vs. season averages. For a frame of reference, Bulls’ games have averaged 221.1 total points this season. That number has jumped to 240.6 over the L5 games! For Indiana, the season average is 220 pts on the nose, but 243.8 over the L5 games. Now I played against Chicago last night and that proved to be a winning move. They lost 127-120 up in Toronto, in OT, a brutal result as the Raptors tied the game with 0.7 seconds remaining in regulation. The Bulls did trail most of the game (by as many as 11). Obviously, the game going to overtime skews the final point total. The previous four games all saw Chicago shoot 51% or better from the floor. Can’t see that continuing. They were down to 47.8% last night. Zach LaVine, the team’s second leading scorer (24.7 PPG) could be rested tonight. The team is already without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. The Pacers also have a number of players out, including Sabonis, Brogden, Turner, Bitadze and Brissett. So I’m not sure where the points will come from tonight. As of this writing, this is the highest O/U line for any Indiana game this season. They are 3-0 Under against the Bulls so far in 2021-22 and none of the three games saw more than 218 total points scored. This number is an overreaction to the abnormal amount of scoring we’ve seen from both teams recently. 10* Under Bulls/Pacers |
|||||||
02-03-22 | Kings +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:10 ET): Though it’s the second game of a back to back and they’re facing the Warriors, I’m taking the Kings plus the points here. Last night, they defeated Brooklyn, at home, by a score of 112-101. While the Nets didn’t have Kevin Durant, both Kyrie Irving and James Harden suited up for them. The Kings didn’t have their leading scorer (De’Aaron Fox) or Marvin Bagley III in the lineup. So I’d say that was a pretty impressive win for them! Golden State was very lucky to beat San Antonio on Tuesday. They sat virtually half the roster and were down 17 in the third quarter. Somehow, they pulled off an improbable rally to win 124-120. It was the seventh straight win for the Warriors, however note that four of those have been by four points or fewer. Though Curry, Thompson and Wiggins are all expected to play tonight, several other contributors (including Draymond Green) remain out. Knowing they have the next three days off, the Dubs may not give this one their full attention. Sacramento is desperate to make the playoffs this year, even if it’s simply a play-in game. They have the longest active postseason drought in the league. Before beating the Nets last night, the Kings had lost seven in a row and 12 of 14. They can’t afford another bad performance. Do I think they win this game outright? Probably not. But I do see them keeping it close as the Warriors are 1-4 ATS coming off a win where they were the underdog. 10* Sacramento |
|||||||
02-03-22 | Bulls v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:40 ET): The Raptors have some scores to settle tonight. They’ve lost to the Bulls twice this season, 111-108 (here at home) back in October and 111-105 last week in Chicago. But since that second loss to the Bulls, Toronto has rattled off three straight impressive victories, including 110-106 over Miami on Tuesday. Yes, the Raptors certainly appeared to take advantage of the fact Miami was playing for a fourth time in five nights. But Gary Trent Jr has been a “man on a mission,” scoring 30+ points in each of the last five games (had 33 vs. the Heat). Toronto is now eighth in the Eastern Conference. Like the six teams ahead of them, they are chasing the Bulls, who lead the conference with a 32-18 overall record. But I don’t see Chicago holding onto that top spot for much longer. They are actually sixth in the East in point differential. The Bulls have shot incredibly well each of the L4 games (54.8%, 52.3%, 55.6% and 51.1%). But I’m not sure they can count on that hot shooting to continue. The Raptors are pretty solid defensively, at least at home where they allow just 104.5 PPG. The last time these teams met, Toronto was in the second night of a back to back. This time, they have rest and are at home. The Bulls have given up more points than they’ve allowed on the road this year and the last time they played on the road, they gave up 130 to the Spurs. Going back to the start of December, they have just ONE road win by more than four points. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home favorite. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
02-03-22 | Heat v. Spurs UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Heat/Spurs (8:40 ET): Miami has now gone Over in six consecutive contests following Tuesday’s 110-106 loss up in Toronto. This feels like a streak that’s “due” to end and I also can’t see San Antonio shooting as well as it did (55%) two nights ago vs. Golden State. Therefore, it certainly seems as if we’ve got the “perfect recipe” for an Under tonight in the Alamo. The Spurs must be kicking themselves after letting ANOTHER lead slip away against the Warriors. Few teams have been less “clutch” than SA this season and what was especially painful about blowing the 17-point lead and losing Tuesday was that the Warriors were without all their star players (No Curry, Thompson, Green or Wiggins). And they (SA) shot 55% from the floor and made 16 threes! The problem was letting the Dubs sink 20 threes. I just see things being much more low-scoring here tonight. Part of that is Miami not being at full-strength either. The Heat have lost three in a row and averaged only 99 PPG in the last two. Kyle Lowry is expected to miss his 10th straight game tonight and Jimmy Butler is questionable as well. For the Spurs, Dejounte Murray (best player) is listed as questionable. So some key contributors MAY be sitting this one out. Regardless, look for the Heat to get back to playing defense and their parade of Overs to end. 8* Under Heat/Spurs |
|||||||
02-02-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:40 ET): Just as Anthony Davis returned, the Lakers lost LeBron James. It’s been “that kind of season” in Tinseltown as the Lakers are three games below .500 and in ninth place in the Western Conference. They’d gotten back to the Mendoza line (.500) a week ago when they beat Brooklyn 106-96. But after that it’s been three straight losses where every opponent has shot better than 50%. The Hawks shot 58.3% against LA in a game that ended up being 129-121 on Sunday. But tonight the Lakers are back at home and I think this one should go well. The team they are facing, Portland, is a pretty horrid 7-17 SU on the road and just got beat in OKC, 98-81 as a four-point favorite. The Blazers are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season. They too are dealing with injuries. Damian Lillard is out as are Cody Zeller and Larry Nance Jr. The Lakers have covered each of the last four times they’ve been off an ATS loss. They did not cover against the Hawks, just missing out as 7.5-point dogs. I think Davis should have his way here against a Portland team that gives up 113.7 PPG on the road. Defensively, the Lakers should start to improve as well. It can’t get any worse than it did vs. Atlanta. The Blazers scored just 50 points over the final three quarters vs. the Thunder, who were playing without their leading scorer. Lay the points. 8* LA Lakers |
|||||||
02-02-22 | Magic v. Pacers UNDER 224 | Top | 119-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
8* Under Magic/Pacers (7:10 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for Orlando, who were 126-115 losers in Chicago Tuesday night. They shot well, particularly in the first half where they made 56% of their field goal attempts. The problem is the Magic couldn’t play any defense; they allowed the Bulls to score 103 points in the first three quarters, so even a late fourth quarter rally proved futile. Defending Indiana should be a bit easier. As many as seven Pacers could sit this one out. Five definitely will, including leading scorer and rebounder Domantas Sabonis, who entered health and safety protocol on Monday. In addition to Sabonis, Indiana is without Brogdon, McConnell, Turner and Warren. They did score 122 pts in a win over the Clippers on Monday, but I just can’t see that happening again with all these notable absences. Monday saw the Pacers shoot 52.6% from the floor, their highest percentage in any game in over three weeks. They were also 14 of 29 from three-point range, also unlikely to be repeated here. Indiana, like Orlando, would like to see its defensive numbers start to improve. That should happen tonight. Over their last five games, all of which have gone Over, the Pacers have given up 126.6 PPG. This is well above their season average of 110.8 PPG. Tonight, they face a Magic team that has been scoring at a 112.6 PPG clip its last five contests, but that is well above their own season average of 102.8 PPG. For the year, Orlando is 28th in the league in scoring. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times they’ve played without rest and they average just 98.1 PPG in that situation. 8* Under Magic/Pacers |
|||||||
02-02-22 | Wizards +10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards have been in a real “rut” of late, losing six in a row. Things have been even more disastrous at the betting window with them not only failing to cover in each of those six straight losses, but also 12 of the last 13 games overall. Perhaps we all should have seen this downfall coming; the Wizards had been winning a lot of close games early on. They actually have the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, ahead of only lowly Orlando and Detroit. But tonight the Wiz are finally getting plenty of “help” (points) from the oddsmakers and I think it’s a good time to take them. Yes, they are currently without leading scorer Bradley Beal. But for 3+ quarters, they hung with the Bucks last night, even taking the lead with just under nine minutes to go. It was a one-point game with only five minutes left, but the Wizards scored only four points after that. It was a pretty brutal ATS loss. Of course, nothing like the previous Tuesday when they blew a 35-point lead and lost to the Clippers. I just think it’s time for Washington to punch a winning ticket. Philadelphia may be on a five-game win streak, but only one of those wins have been by greater than 10 points and the last two have been by a combined five points. The Wizards last win came against the Sixers, by 19 points. Philly is coming off a 122-119 win over Memphis, and Joel Embiid did not play, but they are 2-7 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. The last time in that situation was when they faced Washington! Take the points here. 10* Washington |
|||||||
02-01-22 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 231.5 | Top | 115-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves (8:10 ET): Both of these teams have been scoring a lot more than usual of late. The result of that has been plenty of Overs. Denver is 9-1 Over in its last 10 games, the lone Under taking place in a matchup with the offensively inept Pistons. Minnesota has seen the Over hit in seven of its last eight games. But I can’t see the Nuggets shooting 60% from the field again, as they did in Sunday’s 136-100 beatdown of Milwaukee. Nor can I see the T’wolves shooting 55% again, as they did in their own blowout victory on Sunday (126-106 over Utah). Time for an Under here. When these teams met in Denver back in December, the final score ended up being a 124-107 road win for the Timberwolves. They shot 51.1% from the floor and made 23 three-pointers. Don’t see that being duplicated tonight. Interesting to note that the O/U line is several points higher than it was for the last meeting (224.5). This despite Nikola Jokic and Minnesota’s third leading scorer, D’Angelo Russell, both being listed as questionable for tonight’s game. The key for the T’wolves tonight could be their defense. They are simply much more stingy at home where they allow only 104.8 PPG as opposed to 116.0 on the road. That’s a massive difference. With some key players questionable and both teams likely to cool off from behind the arc, look for this one to stay Under the total. The Under is also 8-3 in Denver’s last 11 road games. 10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves |
|||||||
01-31-22 | Warriors -10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:10 ET): The Warriors seem to have hit their stride again, winning their last five games. Those five victories have come by an average of 11 PPG, which is basically what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. While that average margin of victory is somewhat skewed because of a 130-92 blowout of Dallas last week, the Dubs should have little difficulty blowing out a downtrodden Houston team that is playing without starting PG Kevin Porter Jr. The Rockets have lost 10 in a row at home, the last two coming by a combined 45 points. Golden State was able to down Brooklyn 110-106 Saturday night in a marquee matchup. Now the Nets did not have either Kevin Durant or James Harden, which made the task a lot easier for the Warriors. But the Warriors’ cold shooting and having only 10 players suit up kept that game close. I really think we’re due for a “big” Steph Curry game as he’s failed to hit his season average of 25.7 PPG in four of the last five games. He’s shooting 36.9% in January, which is odd. The Warriors can always seem to rely on their defense, which leads the league in scoring, giving up only 102.0 PPG. The Rockets are at the opposite end of the spectrum, giving up a league-high 116.8 PPG. This happens to be a matchup of my #1 ranked vs. #29 ranked team in the power ratings. So it’s about as big of a mismatch as you can have. I know that it ended up being just a two-point game when these teams met ten days ago in San Francisco. But Curry didn’t make a single shot until 48 seconds were left in the first half and Klay Thompson sat that game out. Lay the points tonight. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
01-30-22 | Blazers +6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-130 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
10* Portland (3:40 ET): I faded Chicago on Friday night and got a win from San Antonio. The Bulls now are set to face a Western Conference team with a slightly better record than the Spurs and that’s Portland, who already beat them once this season, 112-107 back in November. Despite not having top scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers are fighting their way back up the Western Conference pecking order. They’ve won five of seven on the road and I don’t see them getting blown out here. Take the points. As I said in Friday’s analysis, Chicago’s point differential is only seventh best among Eastern Conference teams. So do not be surprised if they fall down a few spots in the standings. Injuries and COVID have been a factor for them this month. While the Bulls’ record at home remains solid, they have struggled defensively as they just allowed 131 points in the loss to the Spurs. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso remain out, so they are still short-handed. The team is 0-2 SU this season after allowing 130+ pts last game. The Blazers are getting contributions from a wide variety of players right now. Three players scored 25 or more points in Friday’s 125-110 win at Houston. It was the team’s third straight win away from home. Obviously, Houston isn’t very good, but the Blazers have also won at Boston and Toronto recently. They’ve covered the previous six trips to the Windy City and right now a case could be made that they are playing better basketball than the Bulls. Since 1/9, Portland is 7-4. Chicago is 4-8. 10* Portland |
|||||||
01-29-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:10 ET): The Wizards have had three full days to get over the meltdown against the Clippers, which saw them blow a 35-point lead and lose 116-115. It’s tough times in the Nation’s Capital right now as the Wiz have lost four in a row and are on the precipice of falling out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference. Three of those four losses have been by four points or less, two by a single point each. Now some would call that “comeuppance” after their rash of close victories to start the season. Things are even more dire at the betting window where Washington is just 1-10 its last 11 games. However, they have gone off as the favorite in all but three of those 11 contests. Their lone cover in this stretch came as an underdog, when they beat Philadelphia 117-98. Rested, they are getting points here against a Memphis team that has been hot, but also is playing without rest. The Grizzlies won again last night, beating Utah 119-119. It was their second straight win after a five-game stretch where they went just 2-3 straight up. There haven’t been many losses for Memphis the last two months as they are 25-7 SU L32 games, including 11-3 SU and ATS this month. But this is a tough spot against a motivated team. Look for the visitors to at least keep within the number, or possibly take the game outright. Take the points. 8* Washington |
|||||||
01-29-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 213.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* Over Celtics/Pelicans (7:05 ET): Both of these teams played last night and did not shoot the ball well. So they’re also both coming off a loss. Boston went down by a score of 108-92 at the hands of Atlanta. The Celtics missed 12 of their first 13 three-point attempts in the game and finished 9 of 34 from behind the arc. They also missed 12 of their first 16 field goal attempts in the fourth quarter. New Orleans was a horrendous 5 of 34 from three-point range, and 38.9% overall, in its 116-105 home loss to Denver on Friday. So what I am saying, right off the bat here, is that you should anticipate BOTH teams shooting better tonight than they did on Friday. Boston had just scored 128 in its last win and that was without even shooting all that well. It’s a three-game Under run coming into tonight, but that’s also because the Celtics’ two previous opponents (before Atlanta) were just horrific shooting the ball. I don’t think they can count on holding New Orleans to 35% or less as they did to Washington and Sacramento. New Orleans’ last three games have all gone Over with them allowing 113, 117 and 116 points. For the year, they are giving up 110 PPG. So there’s more reason to expect Boston is going to have a bounce back game offensively. As for the Pelicans, they could be getting at least one of their top two scorers back. Regardless, these teams will combine to shoot MUCH better than 31% from three-point range, which was the number they were at when they met in Boston earlier this month. 10* Over Celtics/Pelicans |
|||||||
01-28-22 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 217 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Knicks/Bucks (10:10 ET): Milwaukee had a three-game win streak halted two nights ago in Cleveland. They lost 115-99 while shooting just 28% from three-point range (9 of 32). Part of the reason for that poor shooting was because the Bucks were without two of their top shooters, Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews. Both could be back in the lineup Friday (Allen definitely will) when the team returns home to face the Knicks. The Bucks have won three straight at home and two of the wins saw them score 126 and 133 points. They are averaging 112.4 PPG at home for the season. So expect a return to form, at least on offense, for Milwaukee here tonight. As for the Knicks, they’ve struggled with their shooting recently, failing to make more than 43% from the field in any of the last four games. Offense has been a struggle all season for New York, but I expect this game will go a little better than most of the recent ones, and that’s because Milwaukee has allowed 114+ points in four of its last five games. This is the fourth head to head meeting between these two teams this season. The first three all stayed Under, but were very close to the number as the games finished with 211, 212 and 209 total points. We haven’t seen good shooting from either side in any of the prior meetings, which is odd. Looking at this number, all we basically need is the Bucks (111.8 PPG) and Knicks (103.8) to hit their season averages. I don’t think that’s asking for too much? The Over is 9-3 L12 times the Bucks have been home favorites. 10* Over Knicks/Bucks |
|||||||
01-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs remain one of the more “curious cases” in the league as they have the point differential of a team you’d expect to be right around .500, but instead they are 13 games below. At home, they’ve actually outscored their opponents this season, but somehow have a 9-16 SU record here. Coming off another tough home loss, 118-110 to red-hot Memphis, I’m banking on a strong effort from San Antonio and a much “overdue” win. Comparing the Spurs and Bulls, in certain metrics, is certainly interesting. The Spurs have the eighth best point differential in the Western Conference, despite their .367 win percentage. They should be, at least, in position for one of the play-in spots. As for the Bulls, they’ve spent time atop the Eastern Conference standings and currently sit second with a 30-17 SU record. But they only have the seventh best point differential in the East. It’s been a great start to the season in the Windy City, but I do see them as likely to drop down a few spots. Beating Oklahoma City and Toronto earlier in the week marked the first time that Chicago has won B2B games since January 7th. Injuries and COVID-19 have certainly been a factor with this team, but let’s also note that their two road wins this month both came by a single point. Going back to the start of December, the Bulls have just one road win by more than four points. San Antonio is getting great production of late from PG Murray, who already has 10 triple-doubles this season. Chicago will NOT shoot 39 of 58 again, from two-point range, like they did vs. Toronto. 8* San Antonio |
|||||||
01-26-22 | Suns v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:10 ET): I understand who the hotter team is here. Phoenix, who leads the NBA with a 37-9 SU record, has won its last seven games and 10 of the last 11. Meanwhile, Utah has been slumping over its last 10 games, going just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS. But the fact the Jazz, severely short-handed, were able to “keep up” with the Suns two nights ago on the road was an encouraging sign. Six of their nine top scorers did not play in the game Monday, including Mitchell, Gobert, Bogdanovic and Conley. Most of them are set to return tonight, so I’m taking the points as this is the 1st time all season the Jazz have been underdogs at home. Despite the recent slide, I’ve still got the Jazz rated #3 in my own power ratings. The last two games have seen them lose close decisions to the top two teams, Golden State and Phoenix, both on the road. Utah covered the spread in both games, much needed relief for their backers after going 4-14 ATS the previous 18 games. Even without most of their best players, the Jazz were up in the fourth quarter Monday in Phoenix, which is pretty remarkable when you think about it. Seven players actually finished in double figures. The Suns are also playing without some key pieces, namely Payne, Ayton and Crowder. So they aren’t at full strength either here. As I said earlier, this will be the first time this season that Utah is getting points at home. It does appear as if Gobert and Mitchell will again be out, but the other players should be back and if a skeleton crew could stick with the Suns on the road, then it stands to reason a more “complete” roster can also cover the number at home. The Jazz will badly want this win, knowing the game is on national television. 8* Utah |
|||||||
01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 210 | Top | 92-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Mavericks/Warriors (10:05 ET): While both of these teams have been very stout defensively, and the Warriors have really been that way all season, I’ve got to think tonight’s game on ESPN goes Over the oddsmakers’ total. For one, Dallas is on a preposterous run of Unders (eight straight, 13 of last 14 games) right now. Also, I think that Golden State, Steph Curry specifically, is due to break out of a shooting slump. This could end up as the lowest O/U line for any GSW game since 12/18, which went Over. Now there is no denying how good Dallas has been defensively during this 13-1 Under stretch. The most points they’ve given up in any of those games is 109 and only three teams have been able to top 100. In today’s NBA, that’s quite shocking. But eventually, you’re going to have a bad game defensively. The fact the Warriors have been struggling to make shots over the same stretch the Mavs have turned it on defensively tells me a “perfect storm” may be in order for tonight’s game. Even if both Klay Thompson and Draymond Green both sit out, the Warriors will top the 94 points they scored in the win over the Jazz Sunday. Steph Curry has been in a mini-slump, including 13 points on 5 of 20 shooting last game. He can still go off any night though. The Warriors scored just 11 points in the 4Q Sunday. They were on track for well over 100 before that. Holding the Jazz to 38% shooting was what allowed them to hold on for the two-point win. Dallas will shoot better than recent Warriors’ opponents have. 10* Over Mavericks/Warriors |
|||||||
01-25-22 | Clippers v. Wizards -4 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards got off to a pretty nice start to the season, winning 10 of their first 13 games. But I saw some “holes” in their resume and there were some clear signs that regression would eventually take place. This is a team with a league-high eight wins by three points or less. Only the Magic and Pistons, the two obvious worst teams, have a worse point differential in the East. Sure enough, the Wiz are now reeling as they’ve lost four of five, all at home. They are 1-9 ATS in the L10 games. But, tonight is a situation I expect them to take advantage of. With road games at Memphis, Milwaukee and Philadelphia looming on the schedule, this game vs. the Clippers is a virtual “must-win.” After Sunday’s embarrassing loss to Boston, you’ve got to expect Washington will come out fired up at home. They can’t possibly shoot any worse than they did against the Celtics. They were just 35.5% overall and 23.5% from behind the arc. The good news is that they usually bounce back from games like that. They are 8-2 ATS this season and 21-8 ATS L3 seasons after a game scoring 100 points or less. The Clippers are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Don’t look for them to make a move into the top six out West. Had LA not made a stunning comeback against Philadelphia on Friday, they’d be coming into tonight as losers of five of their last six. The situation clearly favors the Wizards, who are playing their eighth straight home game while the Clippers are playing their fourth road game in seven nights, and the front end of a back to back. 8* Washington |
|||||||
01-25-22 | Nuggets v. Pistons UNDER 218.5 | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Under Nuggets/Pistons (7:10 ET): These teams just met Sunday with Denver winning 117-111. It came down to the final minute, which had to be less than thrilling if you’re a Nuggets’ fan as they led by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. What should have Denver “breathing easier” for tonight’s rematch is that it is HIGHLY unlikely the Pistons will shoot 56% again from the floor. The Pistons are last in the East in scoring (102.0 PPG) and shoot just 42.1% for the year. Only OKC is worse offensively. Though they were able to rally and tie the game up in the final minute, what killed the Pistons on Sunday were 22 turnovers, which were converted into 28 points by the Nuggets. They may not shoot as well tonight, but the home team should play a “cleaner” game. Defensively, they should be much better as well. While Detroit is allowing 115.1 PPG on the road, it’s a much more reasonable number (107.5) at home. The Under has also hit in the team’s last eight Tuesday games. Denver is on a six-game Over run, where scoring has been way up from normal. They’ve allowed four straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor. That can’t keep happening. As detailed above, this is an ideal opponent for the defensive woes to cease. I will not be the least bit surprised if the Nuggets win a close, low-scoring game here. 8* Under Nuggets/Pistons |
|||||||
01-25-22 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 221.5 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
8* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:10 ET): Both teams lost on Sunday, due in no small part to bad shooting. Charlotte, playing without Gordon Hayward, fell 113-91 at home to Atlanta. That was only the second loss in the last nine games for the Hornets though. I expect them to bounce back offensively in this one, especially after going a dreadful 4 of 36 from three-point range vs. the Hawks. They missed 18 straight attempts from behind the arc and finished the game at just 39.1% overall from the field. Toronto played a horrible game against Portland, falling behind by 34 in the first half. This was at home! While I am predicting Charlotte to bounce back offensively in this one, the same can be said for the Raptors. They were held under 40% shooting by the Blazers. Key to their projected improvement here is the fact Charlotte is dead last in the Eastern Conference in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 points per game. The Hornets’ defense has improved some over the last month, but the YTD numbers speak for themselves. The total was very high (233.5) for the Charlotte-Atlanta game Sunday. So it looks like we’re getting some solid value with this number. The Under is 7-1 in Charlotte’s last eight games and 12-3 L15 (4-0 L4). To me, that says things are “due” to go the “other way.” Same for Toronto, who had gone Under in seven straight before Sunday’s Over vs. Portland. Prior to the seven-game Under run, the Raptors had gone Over in 10 straight games. They are streaky when it comes to totals! 8* Over Hornets/Raptor |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 217.5 | Top | 91-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks (7:35 ET): While the trends are firmly on the side of the Under here, I’m looking to “buck” convention as two of the hottest teams in the league should find a way to go Over here. Yes, Dallas has gone Under in seven straight games, the last five of which have been here at home. That brings the O/U record for the year to 17-5 Under at home, which is pretty crazy. All three previous Grizzlies-Mavs meetings this year have gone Under. But expect this one to go differently. The last time these teams met was earlier this month and the Mavs surprisingly ran away with a 112-85 road win. That’s just one of two games that Memphis has lost since Christmas. Part of the reason the Grizzlies lost is because they shot just 38.2% from the floor, including 22% from behind the arc. They actually led 55-50 at the half but were held to only 30 points over the final two quarters! Even though it ended up being a blowout victory, even Dallas didn’t shoot well from three in that game. The two teams combined to go 15 of 63 from behind the arc! Expect much more precise three-point shooting in this one. Memphis is a team that averages 112.1 PPG and they just scored 122 in their last game, despite being without their second and third leading scorers. Ja Morant went for 38. Dallas is off a disappointing 109-101 loss to Phoenix where they scored only 19 points in the 4Q. Luka Doncic expects to play Sunday after leaving the last game with a neck injury. That’s key. 10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks |
|||||||
01-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): Memphis hasn’t lost B2B games since a three-game losing streak right before X-Mas. Since that three-game slide, they’ve won 12 of their last 14 games and now have a rather ridiculous 22-6 SU record over their last 28 games. But they have been blown out two of the last three times they’ve taken the court, including 126-114 at Milwaukee on Wednesday. I’ll call for them to lose B2B games - for the first time in almost a month - as they visit Denver tonight, short-handed. The Grizzlies likely will not have two of their top three scorers for this game. Dillon Brooks is out with an injured ankle while Desmond Bane is in health and safety protocol. That’s a tough break when getting set to face a Nuggets team that has scored 130 (or more) points in three of its last four contests. Now the last game saw Denver have to go to OT to beat the Clippers, but they got a triple double from MVP Nikola Jokic, who had 49 points. As the season progresses, expect the Nuggets to solidify themselves as a top six team in the West. Memphis is 14-7 SU on the road thus far, but their point differential indicates that might be a fortunate mark. They’re only scoring 0.4 PPG more than they allow away from home. This is a big double revenge game for Denver as they’ve lost twice at Memphis this season, including by just two points in the last meeting. Both those games were in early November. It’s not just two of the top three scorers that are out for the Grizzlies, three other players are in protocol as well. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to take advantage. 10* Denver |
|||||||
01-20-22 | Suns v. Mavs OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-101 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Two hot teams meet in Dallas, on TNT, tonight. The Suns are looking to complete a perfect 5-0 road trip while the Mavs have won three straight at home and four in a row overall. While Dallas has been playing excellent defense of late, evident by the fact the Under has hit in 11 of their last 12 games including each of the last six, keeping Phoenix in check will be a tall order. Over their last three games, the league-leading Suns have won by an average of 19.7 points. Devin Booker is leading the charge by scoring 37.7 PPG in those L3 wins and he turned in a season-high 48 in the 121-107 win at San Antonio on Monday. Do note that Phoenix trailed going into the 4Q of that last game, but was able to hold the Spurs to just 16 points over the last 12 minutes. Don’t think they’re going to be able to do that again, although from the Suns’ perspective it may not matter if they continue scoring the way they have. They are averaging 112.5 PPG for the season. Dallas held Toronto to 38.5% shooting, including 8 of 32 from three-point range, in the last game. There’s virtually no shot they can keep the Suns in check to that degree. It's the combination of defensive efficiency and slow pace that has led to the recent rash of Unders for the Mavs, but eventually one of these games is going to go Over and I think they’ve got the right “dance partner” tonight. Dallas has also shot VERY poorly from three-point range in its last five games, which I feel is going to change. 10* Over Suns/Mavericks |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Nets +2 v. Wizards | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:10 ET): I gotta believe this is where the Nets get back on track. I know that they are without Kevin Durant for the time being, but James Harden is still here and because tonight is a road game, that means Kyrie Irving is eligible to play. The Nets have been better this season on the road anyway, sporting a 15-5 SU record (as opposed to only 12-11 SU at home). They did lose in Cleveland on Monday, but have won four straight off a SU loss. Take the points. This play is also guided by the fact I’m not a big believer in the Wizards, who I think could fall out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference by season’s end. Propping the Wizards up so far is an extremely fortunate 8-2 SU record in games decided by three points or less. That’s the most “close wins” in the league right now. In fact, no other team has more than five. The Wiz are also 3-0 SU in OT games this season. Now I’ll give them some credit for an impressive 117-98 beatdown of Philadelphia the other night. But before that, Washington had failed to cover six straight games. Five of those ATS losses were as favorites. Brooklyn has also struggled at the betting window this month, going just 2-9 ATS their L11 games. So something will have to “give” in that regard tonight. I just find it hard to believe, that with Harden and Irving in the lineup, that the Nets are underdogs to a team like the Wizards, who have the third worst point differential and fourth worst net efficiency in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is 4-2 SU/ATS as an underdog this year. 10* Brooklyn |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Suns v. Spurs +4.5 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs FINALLY got back into the win column on Saturday, beating the Clippers 101-94 as a 1-point home favorite. It was just their second win since the day after X-Mas, the other was by just two points at Boston on January 5th. But, I’ve previously made the case that this team is better than its record (currently 16-27 SU) and they should find their way into the play-in round mix. At home, San Antonio has actually outscored opponents despite an 8-12 mark here. Phoenix is in the second game of a back to back. They played Detroit yesterday afternoon and that meant an easy win as they raced to a 135-108 decision over the worst team in the league. But not all the news was good as DeAndre Ayton was lost to an ankle injury in the first quarter and thus is likely to miss this game. Being without one of your top players is a tough break when playing w/o rest. This is also the Suns’ fourth straight road game and third in the past four days. San Antonio has been competitive in two previous meetings with Phoenix, losing both by just four points. I expect better offensive efficiency from the Spurs here than what they showed in the win over the Clippers. That game saw them score a season-low 36 points in the paint and shoot just 41.0% from the field. Yet seven players still finished in double figures, led by PG Murray’s 18. Phoenix will NOT shoot as well as they did on Sunday (58.6%), so take the points in this one. 10* San Antonio |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Jazz -4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:15 ET): Even though they have lost four in a row and fallen to fourth place in the Western Conference standings, the Jazz remain second overall in my NBA power ratings (trailing only Golden State). When looking at this four-game losing streak, it is critical to note that Rudy Gobert has missed all of the games. Gobert has been cleared to return, giving the team its top defensive presence back, and I think that leads to a return to winning ways tonight in Denver. The Nuggets have seemingly established themselves as a top six team in the West with B2B dominant wins. It was a 140-108 drubbing of Portland on Thursday. That was a result I was happy to see, having laid the points with the Nuggets. But recall why I did so. The Blazers were extremely short-handed going into that game, including no Lillard or McCollum. Last night, Denver was a 133-96 winner over the Lakers, who are still without Anthony Davis. You’ve got to wonder if the Nuggets “used up” all of its good shooting last night. They made 57.5% from three-point range, a display that they cannot possibly hope to repeat here, especially if Gobert does return for Utah. Denver has really struggled on the second night of back to backs this season, going just 1-5 SU/ATS in this situation. The Jazz have had three days off to get ready for this game, so the schedule really sets up nicely for them to end this rare losing skid. 10* Utah |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Bulls v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:40 ET): The Bulls didn’t just lose a game last night, they also lost Zach LaVine to a knee injury. LaVine did not travel with the team to Boston as he’s set to have a MRI. The belief is that the injury isn’t too serious, but obviously he isn’t playing Saturday. Chicago’s depth was already being tested with Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones Jr., Javonte Green and Tyler Cook all on the mend. Perhaps of greater concern is that the Bulls have now given up 138 points in B2B games, letting the Nets and Warriors both shoot 56% from the field. Now the Celtics aren’t as prolific as either of those two squads, but they are capable of hanging a big number on the Bulls here. Boston was also in action Friday night and the result wasn’t good as they fell 111-99 at Philadelphia. They were down by as many as 28 thanks to a terrible first quarter. But the game prior saw the C’s shoot rather well as they got 30+ point games from both Tatum and Brown. This is a better team at home where their SU record is 13-8. Chicago has lost its last two games by a combined 68 points, so they are reeling. That’s the first time since the NBA instituted the conference format (in 1970) that a first place team lost consecutive games by an average of 30 PPG. This is a big revenge spot for Boston, who blew a 14-point 4Q lead here at home and lost to Chicago back on Nov 1. Even before the LaVine injury, I was a bit skeptical of the Bulls’ ability to remain on top of the East. The Celtics, meanwhile, should be higher than they are in the standings. Lay the points. 10* Boston |
|||||||
01-14-22 | Magic +11 v. Hornets | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): It’s been a great four-game run for Charlotte, who won by 29 over Detroit, beat Milwaukee twice (both times at home) and then went to Philadelphia to pick up a 109-98 victory on Wednesday. The Hornets are now up to seventh in the East and just one game out of fifth. This despite having a negative scoring differential on the season and the second worst scoring defense in the league. This is a big number for them to lay; they’ve only been favored in 10 games all season! Meanwhile, Orlando hasn’t been able to get over the hump. They suffered a 10th consecutive loss on Wednesday, falling in Washington 112-106 to the Wizards. I cashed them as underdogs though. Five of the Magic’s last six losses have been by six points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in four of those six games. Wednesday saw them dig an early hole (trailed 33-16 after 1Q) but they fought back valiantly. As they have gotten closer to full strength, the Magic have had four different leading scorers in the last five games. What will cost Charlotte the cover in this game is their defense. I know that they somehow held Milwaukee and Philadelphia below 100 points the L2 games. But for the season, the Hornets are allowing 115.5 PPG. Unless they “go off” at the offensive end (something I don’t see happening), it’s going to be incredibly difficult to cover a spread this large with the defensive regression I am projecting. Orlando does have double revenge here from two prior losses to the Hornets this season. Both losses were by single digits. 8* Orlando |
|||||||
01-14-22 | Suns v. Pacers OVER 219.5 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Pacers (7:05 ET): What a tough season it’s been for Indiana. They are 15-27 SU and have just one win (against Houston) since X-Mas. I don’t think the team has played all that poorly. They own a better YTD point differential than 7th place Charlotte, but have been doomed by an awful 1-10 record in games decided by three points or less. Things weren’t close on Wednesday though as the Pacers shot a season-worst 19.4% (7 of 36) from three-point range. Only one player (Justin Holliday) made more than one three in the 119-100 loss to the Celtics. Phoenix wasn’t much better offensively in its last game, though they did win 99-95 in Toronto, a game that had no fans present. All five Suns starters finished in double figures, but the reserves combined to score just 21 points. You’ve got to expect more than that here, right? The Suns average 111.8 PPG, but have been below that number each of their last three games. As is the case with Indiana, I’m expecting a bit of an offensive breakthrough by the road team in this Friday night matchup. The Pacers average 11 made three-pointers per game, so that’s an area where I expect them to improve quite a bit from the last time. The Suns held the Raptors to 21.6% from behind the arc, so it works both ways. Not only is Indiana set to improve, Phoenix is set to regress defensively. Indiana actually averages 111.5 PPG at home. But at the same time, I can’t see the Suns not improving their offensive numbers as well. I think both teams are reaching 110 points in this game. That means Over is the call. 10* Over Suns/Pacers |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Blazers v. Nuggets -8 | Top | 108-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): Portland is in a very bad spot here. They are now without both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum for an indefinite period of time. The starting backcourt is really the “heart and soul” of this team and truthfully the Blazers haven’t even been that strong this year when one or both plays. They have a 16-24 SU record, including 2-13 away from home where they are being beaten by an average of 12.2 PPG! The underdog role has not suited them well as their ATS record when getting points is just 5-14. I know they were able to stun Brooklyn the other night, but that was at home. For the record, Lillard is undergoing abdominal surgery and will be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks time. McCollum has missed the previous 16 games due to a lung injury and paternity leave. Denver isn’t about to take it easy on the undermanned Blazers. Not after blowing a 25-point lead and losing 87-85 to the Clippers on Tuesday. Coach Michael Malone ripped his team after it was outscored 32-19 in the final quarter by LA. So the Nuggets should be motivated from the “get-go” here. Earlier in the year, they hosted Portland and won 124-95 as a 6.5-point favorite. Considering all the absences for the Blazers tonight, I’m really surprised the home team isn’t favored by more. It’s not just Lillard and McCollum that are out for Portland. They were without Norman Powell and Larry Nance Jr on Tuesday, making the win over the Nets all the more shocking. Neither of those two are expected to play tonight either. Nor is Cody Zeller or Anfernee Simmons. Playing with a “skeleton crew” couldn’t come at a worse time as the team is about to embark on a six-game road trip. Denver is top five in the league in PPG allowed at home. This should get ugly in a hurry, so lay the points. 10* Denver |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Wolves +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): My only losing bet in the last three days came with the Timberwolves. It was on Tuesday and they were laying a short number, on the road, against New Orleans. The T’wolves were coming off their highest scoring game of the season, a 141-123 win in Houston, and had won four straight overall. It seemed like a prudent play. Unfortunately, by their own admission, the team came in overconfident and lost 128-125 with the game decided on a Brandon Ingram three-pointer with just 1.3 seconds remaining. "We acted like we were just going to walk in, get a win, and it's going to be sweet," Karl-Anthony Towns said. "I don't know if we thought, like, we're the Warriors all of a sudden. It’s not the Warriors that the T’wolves will be facing here, but it’s arguably the hottest team in the NBA as Memphis has won 10 straight and 20 of its last 24 games. This is a step up in class for Minnesota after the last three road games were all against bottom tier Western Conference teams. But the good news is that Minny has beaten Memphis this year and did so in emphatic fashion, 138-95, back on November 20th. While that was a home game, take note that the T’wolves also took the Grizzlies to overtime earlier in the year here in Memphis. While it’s a little risky to fade a team as hot as the Grizzlies are right now, I believe it’s an opportune time to “sell high” on them. They just beat the Warriors on Tuesday, and the Lakers before that, so a “lesser” team like the T’wolves may not command their full attention. Also, while Memphis is 9-1 ATS during the 10-game SU win streak, they’ve been underdogs in half the games. Only once, against Detroit, have they been favored by more than 5.5 at the betting window. Minnesota is #6 in the conference in point differential and net efficiency. With their starting five healthy, they are 9-3 SU this season. Take the points. 8* Minnesota |
|||||||
01-12-22 | Nets +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 138-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
01-12-22 | Magic +7.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:10 ET): The Magic are obviously not a great team. They’re not even a good team. They have their worst 41-game record in franchise history (7-34 SU) and have lost a season-high nine in a row. HOWEVER, they have been playing better recently and don’t have players currently in health & safety protocols. The Magic probably should have picked up a win (or two) in the L5 games, a stretch which has seen them lose four times by four points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in all but one of those five games as well. One of the close losses came Sunday at home to Washington, who the Magic have an immediate rematch with tonight. The Wizards had to play a game in between, which they won last night, 122-118 over Oklahoma City. The Wizards have thrived in close games this season, going 8-2 SU in those decided by three points or less. That’s how they’ve maintained a better than .500 record despite having the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. I think they’re due to tumble. While Orlando is relatively healthy, Washington saw leading scorer Bradley Beal have to re-enter health and safety protocol last night. The Wizards lost two of three games the last time Beal was in protocol. With this being the second night of a back to back, it’s a tough spot, and I cannot see the team matching its 54% shooting from last night nor can I see Kuzma or Dinwiddie matching their respective individual performances vs. the Thunder. Orlando is due for a win while Washington, whose L3 wins have been by a TOTAL of seven points, is due for a loss. Take the points. 10* Orlando |
|||||||
01-11-22 | Wolves -5 v. Pelicans | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The Timberwolves are on a four-game win streak here and coming off two of their highest scoring games of the entire season. After walloping OKC 135-105 last Friday, it was time to establish a new season-high in points on Sunday with a 141-123 beatdown at Houston. You may be thinking that this sounds like an apt time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, but think again. When this team has its starting five intact, they have been very impressive. They are 18-10 SU when just Towns and Russell are available. When the full starting five plays, their record is 9-2 (Beverley could return here). The T’wolves’ travels next take them to New Orleans as they continue the face the worst the Western Conference has to offer. This is the fourth straight game for them against the bottom three in the West as they got to face OKC twice before blowing out Houston on Sunday. Given the recent offensive numbers, it shouldn’t be a problem covering this short number tonight as the Pelicans haven’t had many answers for anyone of late. The Pelicans only win in the L5 games came against Golden State, who was extremely short-handed (no Curry, Green or Thompson) at the time. Minnesota now has the sixth best point differential in the West, so they seem to be legit. Having only made the playoffs once since 2004, this is a team that should be giving it “their all,” night in and night out. Surprisingly, the T’wolves are top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency and as I said prior to the last game (had the Over vs. Houston), their YTD FG% of 43.7 is due to improve dramatically with Towns and Russell back. I don’t see New Orleans being able to slow them down. The T’wolves have already taken two of the previous three meetings this season despite never shooting better than 40.6% from the field. They’ll shoot much better tonight. 10* Minnesota |
|||||||
01-10-22 | Jazz v. Pistons OVER 223 | Top | 116-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Over Jazz/Pistons (7:10 ET): When I first saw this number, I assumed that it was the highest O/U line for any Pistons game this season. But it’s not even their highest of the month. Games against Milwaukee and Charlotte both had higher O/U lines and the one vs. Charlotte is worth mentioning here as the Pistons gave up 140 points in the game. In their most recent game, a 97-92 win over Orlando, the Pistons allowed just 33.7% shooting. But there’s no way we’re going to see anything close to that tonight as they face the team with the most efficient offense in the NBA. Utah has dropped back to back games, the latest being a 125-113 loss to Indiana where they let the Pacers hit 55% from the floor. I’ll come back to that in a moment. But know that the last time the Jazz dropped B2B games, they came back to win six in a row. Only Golden State and Phoenix (both 30-9 SU) have better records than the Jazz this year and only the Warriors have a better YTD point differential. As I stated earlier, no team averages more points per possession. Utah also averages a league-best 115.7 points per game. But the Jazz are missing their best defender right now, Rudy Gobert, and that played a significant role in them allowing the Pacers to shoot 55% from the floor. I know that Detroit is probably not capable of shooting THAT well, but I do expect them to easily break 100 points in this game. In the first three games after the New Year, the Pistons topped 110 each time. Eight of Utah’s last 10 games have seen at least 225 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Pistons |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 229.5 | Top | 141-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* Over T’wolves/Rockets (7:10 ET): Minnesota is now fully healthy and on Friday I saw first-hand what they were capable of doing when that’s the case. The T’wolves crushed OKC 135-105 as a relatively short road favorite. That was a mistake by me to doubt this team’s ability to go on the road and beat one of the weakest teams in the league. (In my defense, it was just the second time all season that the T’wolves were road favorites). The situation now repeats itself as they are in Houston on Sunday. I’m obviously not going to try and fade the T’wolves again here. The trio of Towns, Russell and Edwards combined for 70 points (on 27 of 39 shooting) Friday. It was just the second game back (from health and safety protocol) for Towns and Russell and clearly this is a playoff caliber team when those two are in the lineup (at least good enough for the play-in round). While Minnesota may not score 135 points again tonight, they should still put up a big number against a Houston team that’s giving up an average of 123.6 points its last five games and 115.9 for the season. The T’wolves’ overall shooting for the season (43.5%) is certainly due to improve. The Over is 4-1 in the Rockets’ last five games and that’s despite them shooting only 43.7% themselves. They are putting up 110 PPG when at home this season. Their last game (scored 106 points) was their lowest scoring effort since 12/27 and they were just 12 of 43 from three-point range. So, better offense tonight, coupled with the usual defense from the Rockets should lead to an easy Over. 10* Over T’wolves/Rockets |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Knicks v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 75-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:40 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 25-point lead on Thursday and lost to the Knicks 108-105. That game was decided on a RJ Barrett three-pointer, which banked in at the buzzer. For Boston, it was a second straight loss that came down to the final shot. Earlier in the week, they lost 99-97 at home to San Antonio when Jaylen Brown’s driving layup rolled off the rim as time expired. I expect the Celtics to come out highly motivated on Saturday and win big. The Knicks probably can’t count on getting 41 points from Evan Fournier, which is what happened in Thursday’s game. While it was a nice come from behind win for NY, you can’t erase the fact that they were down 25 at one point. The Knicks have played a bit better of late, winning five of their last seven, however Thursday was the only game in that stretch where they topped 105 points. In addition to Fournier’s likely regression, I cannot see the team shooting 50% from three-point range again like they did last time out. Boston is now 11th in the Eastern Conference, one game back of the Knicks for what would be the final spot in the play-in round. So in addition to the revenge angle, there’s a real sense of urgency coming into tonight’s game. I’m expecting big games from both Brown and Jayson Tatum tonight. The Celtics SHOULD be a top eight team in the East according to most metrics. I can’t see them losing a third straight game as a favorite and they are 6-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Boston |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Wolves v. Thunder +5.5 | Top | 135-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between these Northwest Division rivals. Minnesota took Wednesday’s game, at home, by a score of 98-90. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell returned to the lineup, however there was some obvious rust shown from that duo. I understand that the T’wolves have been much better in the select number of times their full starting five has been available (Weds was just the 11th time this year), but I’ve got to fade this team as a road favorite, which they’ve been in only one game prior to tonight all season. Oklahoma City is also getting back to full strength as four players made their returns to the lineup on Wednesday. One was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the team in scoring with 19 points. The Thunder also have a rookie PG, Josh Giddey, that is averaging 12.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. Giddey recently became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple double. He’s only shot 25% from three-point range in the L2 games though, a number I expect to improve tonight. I also think Gilgeous-Alexander is set to score more than he did in Wednesday’s game. Oklahoma City, despite its poor overall SU record, is one of the best teams at covering the spread. They are 24-13 ATS, which is second best in the league right now, trailing only surprising Cleveland. The Thunder are 9-2 ATS their L11 games overall and here’s a trend for you: the team is a perfect 9-0 ATS this season if they allowed 100 pts or fewer in their previous game. Again, they allowed only 98 on Wednesday. 10* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Spurs v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Spurs/76ers (7:10 ET): Philadelphia, who ended up being the top seed in the Eastern Conference last season, has started to get going of late with five consecutive victories. This win streak has them up to fifth in the Eastern Conference, two games back of 4th place and five games back of the top spot. The Sixers have certainly been scoring more (118.0 PPG) during their win streak, but a curious thing about this team is how much WORSE they’ve been at home (7-8 SU) compared to the road (14-8 SU). The Under is 11-4 in all Sixers’ home games and that’s the trend I’ll follow here. San Antonio is a team that I feel is better than its 15-22 SU record. They have a positive point differential on the year, which is something that only five other teams in the Western Conference (the top five) can say right now. But before a 99-97 win in Boston the other night, the Spurs had dropped four straight with three of those defeats coming on the road. Like a lot of teams, the Spurs are short-handed as a number of players remain in health & safety protocol. They did have four starters finish in double figures against Boston, but even so they still couldn’t score 100 points. Four of the last five games have seen them fail to top 105 points. When it comes to how the teams should perform at the offensive end tonight, I’m just not expecting big nights from either side. Philadelphia is unlikely to be as prolific here as they were vs. Orlando on Wednesday when they shot above 50% overall and 42% from three-point range. So expect a drop in scoring for them. Same with San Antonio as four starters scoring in double figures again may not be realistic. The Under is 13-6-2 in the Spurs’ previous 21 road games. 10* Under Spurs/76ers |
|||||||
01-06-22 | Warriors -3 v. Pelicans | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:05 ET): Even though Steph Curry is unlikely to play Thursday, I’m still going to back the Warriors in this game. Beating New Orleans is something they can still do, even without their superstar. The team shot a season-worst 5 of 28 from three-point range last night in Dallas, where they lost 99-82. There will be a natural progression to the mean in that category, even if Curry is unavailable. New Orleans is in the midst of a brutal stretch of games as they’ve previously faced the Bucks, Jazz and Suns. They lost to all three and surrendered an average of 124.7 PPG in doing so. It would be an obvious break, facing the Warriors w/o Curry, but it’s something I don’t think the Pelicans will be able to take advantage of. This is just a bad team. The Pelicans are 13-25 and second to last in the West. With Curry suffering the injury last night and Klay Thompson not yet back, where will the scoring come from for Golden State? How about Andrew Wiggins, who had a team-high 17 points last night. I’m also looking for a bounce back here from Draymond Green, who only had TWO points against Dallas. The Warriors beat the Pelicans by 41 earlier this year and can still win here, even without Curry. New Orleans’ leading scorer Brandon Ingram has been struggling of late. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
01-06-22 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
8* Under Celtics/Knicks (7:35 ET): Neither of these teams can be happy with their current record. Both are 18-20 SU, which is tied for 10th place in the Eastern Conference. Of the two, I’d say the Celtics are more likely to move up, but that’s no guarantee. Boston lost last night, 99-97 to San Antonio, thus ending a two-game win streak. The game came down to the final play, which was a missed layup by Jaylen Brown after a steal. The Celtics are 6-2 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. The Knicks are coming off a win Tuesday night as they beat the Pacers 104-94. Over the last five games, the team has averaged only 95.8 PPG. On the bright side, they’ve only allowed 96.4. There had been three consecutive games where neither the Knicks nor their opponent scored 100 points. That was before a 120-105 loss to Toronto on Sunday. Tuesday saw Julius Randle return to the lineup after missing several games due to COVID and he scored 30 points. RJ Barrett went for 32, but the rest of the team combined for only 42 points. This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams. The first two both went Over, but one was a double overtime game. Neither team shoots all that well with Boston at 43.9% on the road and New York at 43.6% overall for the year. I don’t think NY can count on Randle and Barrett both going for 30+ again while Boston’s Jayson Tatum admitted to still being “rusty” after catching COVID for a second time. The Knicks are 5-1 Under their L6 games while the Celtics are 6-2 Under in their L8. Look for those trends to continue here. 8* Under Celtics/Knicks |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* Under Raptors/Bucks (8:05 ET): So this is obviously a case of “bucking” the recent trend that has seen Toronto go Over in each of its last eight games. That’s a pretty long streak and during that time the team has exceeded its season average in points scored (107.6 per game) seven times. The Raptors are off B2B 120+ point efforts in beating the Knicks and Spurs, but I think they’ll find it much harder to score tonight when they face a Milwaukee team that is allowing just 42.5% shooting here at home. Now the Bucks have also been doing a lot of scoring themselves recently. They scored 136 pts in B2B games last week. But that was followed with a shocking loss to the Pistons last time out, 115-106, as a 16-point home favorite. The Bucks’ recent schedule has been incredibly “soft” with two games against the Magic, one against the Pelicans and then the Pistons. Lack of defense has been a bit troubling for the defending NBA Champs recently. They’ve allowed 110+ points in five straight games. I say that streak ends tonight. Toronto’s scoring is clearly due to subside while Milwaukee’s defense is set to improve. But what kind of defensive effort should we expect from the Raptors tonight? Well, over the last three games, they’ve held opponents to an average of just 105.7 PPG. The Bucks are coming off their second worst three-point shooting performance of the season. They made only 11 of 46 attempts from beyond the arc against the Pistons. Also note that when these teams faced off in Toronto last month, the final score was 97-93 (Raptors won). 8* Under Raptors/Bucks |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Nets -8 v. Pacers | Top | 129-121 | Push | 0 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The Nets have shockingly lost all three games since Kevin Durant’s return to the lineup. Those losses, all of which saw the Nets favored, were to Philadelphia, the Clippers and Memphis. The first two saw them blow fourth quarter leads while Monday was just a case of being outplayed by the Grizzlies. Durant and James Harden combined to shoot just 13 of 38 from the field, including 4 for 15 from three-point range. Overall, it was just a bad shooting night for Brooklyn as they were 9 of 31 from behind the arc and 12 of 21 at the free throw line. Fortunately, tonight the Nets are facing an Indiana team that is both short-handed and struggling. Without leading scorer Malcolm Brogden, the Pacers have dropped five in a row and are now 10 games below .500. They probably deserve a better fate as they’ve lost 9 of 10 games that were decided by three points or less. But this is NOT the matchup for the Pacers to “get right” as Brooklyn will certainly be motivated to end its own losing skid and the last five head to head meetings have all gone to the Nets, three of those being decided by double digits. There’s a curious thing going on with Brooklyn as they are just 10-9 SU at home, but 13-3 SU on the road. They did beat the Pacers at home earlier this season, 105-98. The Nets have cleaned up against sub-.500 opposition, going 13-2 SU. Oh, by the way, Kyrie Irving is expected to make his season debut tonight. That comes at a time when Indiana has eight players still in health and safety protocols. Lay the points. 10* Brooklyn |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Hornets v. Wizards UNDER 229 | Top | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): These are two teams I could see sliding down the standings before we hit the All-Star Break. Washington had been 6-0 in games decided by three points or less this season. That was before losing at the buzzer against Chicago on Saturday, 120-119. The kind of luck the Wizards were having in close games is something that is certainly hard to sustain over the course of the season. This team actually has the third worst point differential in the entire Eastern Conference entering Monday. Charlotte just got blasted at home last night, 133-99 by Phoenix. That ended a three-game SU win streak and four-game ATS win streak. But it did make it five straight Unders for the Hornets. Because they allow the most points per game in the entire NBA, Hornets’ totals are consistently among the highest in the league. I think this affords us a nice opportunity to start taking some Unders as scoring is down league-wide this season and the trend figures to hit Charlotte sooner than later. The Hornets only shot 25% from three-point range last night. Any gains in that area tonight will be nullified by certainly allowing fewer points to the Wizards than what they gave up against the Suns. Washington was without seven players for its last game, so I was surprised to see them score so many points. They play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Charlotte is only averaging 104.9 points in division games this season and the Under is a perfect 5-0 in the L5 meetings between these teams (2-0 this season). 10* Under Hornets/Wizards |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Wolves v. Lakers UNDER 225 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under T’Wolves/Lakers (9:35 ET): The Lakers finally played a good game the other night, beating the Blazers 139-106. I don’t think they’ll shoot 55.3% from the floor again though, or even close to that tonight against the T’wolves. LeBron James had a season-high 43 points in that win on New Year’s Eve. It should be noted that three days earlier the team shot better than 50% and topped 130 points in a win over the Rockets. The next game they scored 99 in a loss to the Grizzlies. So we’ve got one team (the Lakers) with a virtual guaranteed drop in offensive production from its last game. Then you’ve got Minnesota, who is having COVID issues. Their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, is among those that are currently out of the lineup. The T’wolves have lost four of five since the COVID issues reared their ugly head and in the last two games they have averaged only 99 points. Since the start of December, there has been only one game where Minnesota shot better than 47% from the floor. That’s remarkable. There have been two previous meetings between these teams this season. Both went Under. Surprisingly, Minnesota was the winner each time, holding the Lakers to 92 and 83 points. The T’wolves have gone Under in 10 of their 13 games this season against teams that have losing records. The Lakers are 18-19 on the year. This seems like a high total, especially with the Lakers 12-2 Under following a SU win by 10 or more points. 10* Under T’wolves/Lakers |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Clippers v. Nets -11.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): The Clippers have the unenviable task of playing on both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. After losing last night in Toronto, 116-108 as a seven-point dog, it’s a brutal spot here having to go to Brooklyn. The Nets will take no mercy on their unrested visitors; they are looking to bounce back from a surprising loss on Thursday, 110-102 to Philadelphia where they were five-point home favorites. It’s a big number, but you’ll want to lay the points in this matchup. Now, if you recall, I faded the Nets in that outright loss to the 76ers. I did so, despite Kevin Durant being back for Brooklyn. Durant actually played better than I expected, scoring 33 points in his first game in two weeks. James Harden also had 33 points. But the Nets had no answers defensively for Joel Embiid and also struggled from three-point range where they were just 7 of 27. That three-point shooting will improve tonight and a second game with Durant back in the lineup should see the Nets looking like a well-oiled machine. Now the Clippers are not just in the second night of a back to back, they are also extremely short-handed as Paul George is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. LA is just 2-6 SU its last eight games and this will be the second time in less than a week that they’ve got to face the Nets w/o rest. Last week, at home, they lost to them 124-108 and the Nets didn’t even have Durant for that game. The Clippers are now 0-4 SU and ATS the last four meetings with Brooklyn and this could be the ugliest result yet. 10* Brooklyn |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.