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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-31-21 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-139 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:35 ET): The Lakers stink. They have just one win in the past seven games and that came against lowly Houston. While LeBron James is doing his part, including 37 points and 13 rebounds on Wednesday, it hasn’t nearly been enough for an old team that is really short-handed. The Lakers are without several players due to health and safety, plus Anthony Davis is out with a sprained MCL. There have been 20 different starting lineups for the Lakers this season and the bench contributed just 18 points in the 104-99 loss at Memphis two nights ago. Things aren’t exactly going great for Portland either. The Blazers are 2-10 their last 12 games and off three consecutive double digit defeats. They are dealing with even more absences on the health and safety front and CJ McCollum has missed the L3+ weeks due to a collapsed lung. The Blazers have really struggled on the road thus far (2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS) and are just 2-11 ATS as underdogs this season. But I believe tonight is a situation where you’ll want to take the points. The Lakers are 9-17 ATS as favorites with 12 outright losses. They are also just 6-14 ATS at home. Much like how the Lakers are leaning on LeBron, the Blazers still have Damian Lillard, who had 32 points on Wednesday. So did Norman Powell. But it wasn’t enough against a top tier team like the Jazz. But it’s not the Jazz that Portland is facing here tonight; it’s an old Lakers team that I can see being “disinterested” playing on New Year’s Eve. Portland beat the Lakers earlier this season by 15 points. 8* Portland |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Clippers/Raptors (7:30 ET): While overall shooting may not be as woeful here as it was in the Clippers’ last game, I’m not exactly anticipating a lot of offensive firepower when LA heads “north of the border” to face Toronto on New Year’s Eve. The Clippers won 91-82 on Wednesday, mostly thanks to Boston going an unthinkable 4 of 42 from three-point range. They won’t be that “lucky” at the defensive end tonight, but playing short-handed (no George or Leonard), the Clips aren’t likely to do much scoring themselves here. Toronto is getting healthier as the number of players on the COVID-19 list has dropped from ten to two. But they are off two straight losses, one a complete embarrassment (144-109 to the Cavs) when the Raptors were extremely short-handed and then 114-109 to the 76ers on Tuesday. They shot 42.7% from the field in those two losses, which isn’t all that atypical. For the season, the Raptors have a 43.9 FG% and they are bottom five in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Still, the Raptors’ last five games have all found a way to go Over the total. I look for that streak to end tonight. The Clippers are on a 5-1 run to the Under, so things have been going quite differently for them. LA has averaged only 99.2 PPG on 42.9% shooting its last five games and they are actually bottom five in the league in offensive efficiency. With the Clippers missing their leading scorer and Toronto having so many players working their way back into the lineup, expect a low-scoring game. 10* Under Clippers/Raptors |
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12-30-21 | 76ers +5 v. Nets | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Both the 76ers and Nets are getting closer to full strength and it’s showing in the results. Brooklyn, thanks to James Harden, just went out to Los Angeles and beat both Lakers and Clippers in somewhat convincing fashion. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is looking to make it a perfect 3-0 road trip tonight after wins in Washington and Toronto following a Christmas break. The Sixers have won three of their last four overall, the only loss coming by two points. I know there’s a chance Kevin Durant may return tonight for the Nets, but it’s no guarantee that he will play well after a two-week absence. Brooklyn has not performed well this season when off a double-digit win. They are just 1-7 ATS in that situation, which presents itself again tonight as the Nets beat the Clippers 124-108 on Monday. Harden scored 39 points and the team shot 56.8% in that game. Even if Durant returns, there’s just no way they are going to match that kind of shooting tonight. Philly has done a good job defensively of late, holding two of its last three opponents below 100 points. Doing that again tonight might be asking a bit much, but it’s worth pointing out that the Nets “only” average 108.0 PPG at home. The 76ers, who are just 18-16 on the year and tied for 6th in the Eastern Conference, need this game more than the Nets. It’s also a double revenge game as they are 0-2 vs. Brooklyn this season. The first game saw them blow a halftime lead while the second saw them nearly rally back from a 20-point deficit, despite poor shooting (29.4% from three-point range). The 76ers were up by as many as 17 on Tuesday vs. Toronto as Joel Embiid turned in his sixth consecutive 30+ point game. This is an entirely different team when Embiid is in the lineup and they have actually been better on the road (than at home) this season. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia |
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12-29-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers, statistically, have been better than the Hornets this season on a possession by possession basis. They’ve got a slightly higher net efficiency rating as well as a superior point differential. But Charlotte has the better overall record, 18-17 SU compared to 14-20 SU. How can that be? Well, Indiana has had the worst “luck” in the league in close games this season, going 1-8 SU when the final margin is three points or less. I think that tonight, it’s time for the Pacers to get a “little lucky.” The Pacers have a much better record at home (11-7 SU) than on the road (3-13). Fortunately for them, tonight’s game is at home. While the last two home wins came against lightweights Houston and Detroit, Indiana has won five of six overall here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse with the one loss coming by two points to Golden State. Indiana’s disparity in win percentage at home vs. the road is the largest in the league. They were a bit short-handed (no Malcolm Brogden) for Sunday’s loss at Chicago, but I think the home court edge is the key here, even if Brogden (listed as questionable for tonight) cannot return. While Indiana is clearly a better team at home, Charlotte is just 9-13 SU on the road. The Hornets are dead last in the league in points allowed (116.3 per game), giving up 5.5 more per game than every other team in the Eastern Conference. They had a brief stop back home on Monday - when they blew out Houston 123-99. But before that, they’d gone 1-5 SU on a six-game West Coast swing. I think the Pacers’ home court edge and the Hornets’ leaky defense prove to be the difference makers in this one. 10* Indiana |
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12-28-21 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): Golden State got a huge win on Christmas, beating Phoenix 116-107 as 5.5-point dogs. But now they are set to be even more short-handed with Draymond Green joining four other teammates on the COVID-19 list. Tonight’s game, the front end of a home and home with the Nuggets, isn’t nearly as important to Golden State as the X-Mas Day game was. So I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points to a Denver team looking to solidify its own spot in the Western Conference pecking order. The Nuggets picked up a win on Sunday, beating the Clippers 103-100. But they were four-point favorites, so they failed to cover. It was the fourth straight time Denver failed to cover as chalk. They’d lost the previous three outright. But the last time they were a dog saw them turn in an outstanding effort, winning in Atlanta 133-115. Right now, reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic seems to be a man on a mission with back to back 20+ point & 20+ rebound games. It’s 55 points and 43 rebounds for him over the last two games. Obviously, Golden State should still be respected as they have the best record in the league. But this is basically going to be the “Steph Curry show” tonight due to all the absences. Green’s absence is the biggest of the five and will be felt. Curry had 33 points on Christmas, but even if he were to match that number here, I don’t see it being enough for the Warriors to cover the spread. The last time the Dubs were off a win over Phoenix, they lost the next game outright. 10* Denver |
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12-27-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:05 ET): The 116-107 loss that Phoenix suffered on X-Mas Day was only their third defeat in the last 28 games. It also snapped a 15-game win streak here at home. There is no denying the pecking order in the Western Conference has a clear top three teams and the Suns are among the three. But of the three teams, I actually believe Phoenix is the “worst.” Their point differential and efficiency rating lags behind those of the Warriors and Jazz. What I’m saying is that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team that’s been red hot, slip up a little bit in the coming weeks. Memphis is currently fourth in the West. While there’s a four-game gap between them and the top three, the Grizzlies are coming off a 127-102 win in Sacramento last night. That ended a three-game losing streak. They come into tonight as decided underdogs, but that’s okay considering their 11-5 ATS mark in that role this season. Six of the last seven times the Grizz have been getting points, they have covered the number. They are also 7-1 ATS L8 road games. This number is jacked up due to Memphis coming in without rest. I get their rotation is shortened because of COVID, but the same can be said for Phoenix. Losing to Golden State on X-Mas may result in a bit of a “hangover” here for the Suns, while the Grizzlies are definitely looking to avenge a 25-point loss they suffered at home last month. That previous meeting saw Phoenix lead wire to wire as Memphis shot poorly. Look for better shooting from a motivated dog tonight. Take the points. 8* Memphis |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs UNDER 228.5 | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Jazz/Spurs (8:35 ET): Both these teams are coming off back to back high scoring encounters. Utah held off Dallas on Christmas Night, 120-116, in a game that featured a ton of free throw attempts. That followed a 128-116 win over Minnesota. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off its two best offensive games of the season as they scored 138 on the Lakers Thursday and 144 on Detroit last night. For a variety of reasons, I anticipate we’ll be seeing a massive decrease in scoring from both teams on Monday. The Jazz won’t have PG Donovan Mitchell available tonight due to a back strain. The injury actually occurred in the first quarter of the Dallas game, but Mitchell still went on to score 33 points, his ninth 30+ point game of the season. It’s a big loss not having him on the floor for this game and Utah’s league-leading offense should suffer as a result. I certainly don’t expect the Jazz to get to the free throw line 37 times like they did vs. the Mavs. The team also averages fewer points per game on the road than it does at home. But Utah’s defense actually gets better on their travels, holding teams to 102.5 PPG. As a result, Jazz road games see about eight fewer total points per game scored than their home games. The defensive effort will be needed here against a Spurs team that just had its highest scoring first half and game of the season last night. But again, it is unlikely that SA can even come close to replicating that kind of offensive effort here. They too are without their starting PG (Murray) and the Under is 7-3 the L10 times the Spurs have been in the second night of a back to back.. Both teams are due to “cool off”. 10* Under Jazz/Spurs |
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12-25-21 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 214.5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Mavericks/Jazz (10:35 ET): Rolling into XMas night with a 22-9 overall record, Utah is pretty clearly one of the three top teams in the NBA right now, alongside Phoenix and Golden State. While the Jazz may trail both those teams in the standings, they are actually level with the Warriors for the best point differential in the league and have an ever-so-slightly better net efficiency rating. I’ve got them at #1 in my own personal power ratings. The most efficient offensive team in the league (and highest scoring), the Jazz are big favorites here against the short-handed Mavericks. But it won’t take many points to win this game. You’re going to want to go with the Under here. The Under has hit in 9 of Dallas’ last 11 games. Part of that is the Mavericks play at the slowest pace in the entire league. Fewer possessions equal fewer points and that’s the name of the game here. But the main reason the Mavs will look to “shorten” the game is because Luka Doncic (and likely many others) remain out because of COVID. The team could manage only 95 points last time out as they suffered a seven-point loss to Milwaukee (who was without Giannis Antetokounmpo). In that game, the Mavs had five players suit up that were under 10-day contracts. Three of the top four scorers are out. Doncic won’t even travel with the team XMas Day. So I’d say it’s a safe assumption that Dallas won’t be doing a ton of scoring on Saturday. Only twice in their last 11 games have they scored more than 105 in a game and those were against Charlotte and Minnesota, two of the worst defensive teams. The key to this Under then rests on the Mavs’ ability to slow down the Utah offense. One good thing for the Mavs is that I don’t think the Jazz are going to shoot as well as they did on Thursday vs. Minnesota when they made 53.3% of their FG attempts. A natural decline from that number will help the underdog, who is not only 9-2 Under their L11 games overall, but also 35-17 Under the L52 times taking points. 10* Under Mavericks/Jazz |
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12-25-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -6 | Top | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
8* New York (12:05 ET): It seems as if EVERY team in the league is currently being hit hard by COVID-19 related absences, but the Hawks and Knicks are both dealing with some SERIOUS attrition heading into XMas Day. Atlanta was already without SEVEN players due to health & safety protocols before both Cam Reddish and Delon Wright suffered sprained ankles on Thursday. Somehow Atlanta still managed to upset Philadelphia, 98-96, as Joel Embiid missed a potential game-tying shot at the buzzer. But of the starting five from last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals, John Collins is the lone starter left for the Hawks right now. The most prominent absence is Trae Young, who is not expected to play here. Not to be outdone, the Knicks have five players in quarantine and Derrick Rose is out due to an ankle injury. While the Hawks managed to somehow win their last game, the Knicks were not as fortunate, losing 124-117 to Washington despite 44 points from Kemba Walker. It was an inability to get stops that doomed New York on Thursday night as they let the Wizards shoot 56% from the field. The loss was the Knicks’ ninth in the last 12 games as this continues to be a very disappointing season with the team now four games below .500 and outside of a play-in tournament spot. Remember that last year saw NY finish fourth in the Eastern Conference, only to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs - by Atlanta. So neither team’s lineup on Saturday is going to resemble what we saw in last year’s playoffs. But that doesn’t mean that the Knicks won’t still be out for revenge. Yes, they already did beat the Hawks 99-90 (in Atlanta) last month. But a win on XMas would be an even bigger deal. Walker has shown himself to be capable of carrying the scoring load for New York. I don’t know who can do that now for the Hawks, who did beat the Sixers, but also lost to the Magic the previous day. In both games, the Hawks scored just 98 points. They are 0-3 SU/ATS this season coming off a SU win as an underdog. The Knicks should also defend better here than they did vs. the Wizards the other night. 8* New York |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
8* Over Thunder/Suns (9:05 ET): This may surprise you given how I spoke of the Thunder in yesterday’s (successful) Under play. While it’s still true that Oklahoma City is the lowest scoring team in the NBA, they have now topped their season average in four straight games, which includes three consecutive straight up victories over teams that were in the playoffs last year. I expect the Thunder to shoot a lot better from three-point range tonight than they did Wednesday vs. Denver (23.5%) and the team they face is more than capable of putting a big number on the board. So Over is the call on Thursday. Phoenix has shown no real signs of regressing after last year’s run to the NBA Finals. They did start the season 1-3, but since then have gone 24-2 SU including an 18-game win streak. The Suns easily beat the Lakers on Tuesday, 108-90, for their fourth straight victory. As you can see, that was a relatively low-scoring victory as the Suns shot below 30% from three-point range. (They were coming off a game where they shot 56.8% overall and scored 137 points). At the defensive end, the Suns were even stingier though, holding the Lakers to 39.1% overall including 7 of 35 from three-point range. Don’t be surprised if/when the three-pointers are flying (and going in) tonight. Phoenix shoots 37.4% from behind the arc at home, so I’d say they are a lock to shoot better tonight than they did vs. the Lakers. They are averaging 113.5 PPG at home and that’s a number I believe they can exceed here. If so, we’re only going to need 100 from OKC and given their recent form, that seems “doable” as well. When in the second night of a back to back, the Thunder are allowing over 120 PPG this season. The Over is 20-8 in Phoenix’s last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and OKC is 5-9 SU on the road this year. 8* Over Thunder/Suns |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 214.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Over their last six games, the Nuggets have basically averaged almost 120 points per game. Not convinced they can continue to maintain that kind of average moving forward, especially because they are averaging only 106.8 PPG for the season. So look for a decrease in scoring from Denver tonight. Those last six games have all gone Over the total as have 13 of their last 14 games. But tonight they are facing the lowest scoring team in the entire NBA. Take the Under. There’s definitely no shot of Denver matching its scoring output from the last game when they went to Atlanta and shot 58.1% overall from the field, including 17 made three-pointers. The Nuggets currently have a number of players dealing with injuries, so it was definitely surprising to see them “go off” like that on Friday. By the way, the Nuggets haven’t played since Friday. They were supposed to play Brooklyn Sunday, but that had to be postponed. A lengthy layoff could lead to some “rust” and a slow start at the offensive end tonight. Oklahoma City is coming off B2B wins, which is a rare occurrence for them. They’ve upset the Clippers and Grizzlies over the last few days. Both games stayed Under. As mentioned above, the Thunder are the lowest scoring team in the NBA. They don’t even average 100 PPG. Neither of these teams like to play at a particularly fast pace, so we don’t have to worry about that. Denver is 12-5 Under its previous 17 games as a road favorite. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder |
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12-21-21 | Wolves v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This is an immediate revenge situation for Dallas, who lost to Minnesota 111-105 on Sunday night. Ironically enough, I had the T’wolves minus the points in that game. But now it’s time to go the “other way,” even though the Mavs look to be short-handed going into the rematch. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game while Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. Several other players have made their way onto the COVID-19 list. But we’ve seen “strange things” (i.e. wins) all season from these teams dealing with absences. I look for the other players to step it up on Tuesday night. Minnesota has now won four in a row and passed Dallas in the Western Conference standings. With the West seemingly so depth-shy this season and the advent of a play-in round, this would seem to be an ideal year for the T’wolves to make a rare playoff appearance. But a couple things to keep in mind here - they are dealing with a couple players on the COVID list and even with Dallas being short-handed on Sunday, the T’wolves could only win by six at home. They trailed going into the fourth quarter. Poor shooting doomed the Mavericks in the 4Q and losing Porzingis to injury didn’t help matters. But at home, you’ve got to expect they’ll shoot better than 43.9% (including just 12 of 41 from 3-pt range) as they did on Sunday. The combo of Hardaway Jr, Finney-Smith and Brunson combined for 69 points last time out. Like I’ve said before, it also seems as if SOMEONE steps up in these situations. Minnesota has been a road favorite only one time previous to this all season. 10* Dallas |
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12-20-21 | Hornets v. Jazz -12 | Top | 102-112 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): The Jazz have now suffered back to back upset losses here at home, first to the Spurs (128-126) and then to the Wizards (109-103). Those games took place Friday and Saturday. I faded them against the Wizards as it was a large spread in the second night of a back to back. Still, it was a bit shocking to see the Jazz lose the game outright. This is a team that had previously won eight in a row before the B2B setbacks. They rank 1st overall in my power ratings, having outscored opponents by 10.5 points per game this season. Look for a strong statement to be made Monday against a road-weary opponent. Charlotte finds itself in the same situation Utah was in Saturday, that being the second game of a back to back. The only difference is that the Hornets are on the road. It’s not “just” the second night of a back to back either; it’s also the team’s fifth consecutive road game and third in four days. Of the Hornets’ first 32 games, 20 have come away from home where they are giving up 119.3 PPG. It was a blowout loss last night in Phoenix, 137-106, as the team has allowed an average of 124 points its last five games. For the season, Charlotte ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency and points allowed. That’s a problem when facing a Utah team that is #1 in offensive efficiency and points scored. Talk about a mismatch. The Jazz rested PG Mike Conley against the Wizards, which partially explains the loss. He’ll be back on the floor tonight and the team should shoot a lot better than it did on Saturday. The Jazz are 20-6 SU this season with Conley in the lineup. While this is a larger number than I typically lay in a NBA game, Charlotte is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS when playing without rest and going from Phoenix to Utah is the toughest spot they’re likely to be in all season. Lay the number. 8* Utah |
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12-19-21 | Mavs v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Timberwolves have made the playoffs just one time since 2004 (when Kevin Garnett skipped town!) and that was four years ago when they made a first round exit. The Western Conference is shaping up to be pretty weak this season (at least much weaker than usual) and with the play-in round now “being a thing,” 2021-22 seems like a real opportunity for the T’wolves to get into the postseason. They enter Sunday with a 14-15 SU record, good enough for ninth place in the Conference. While still a game below .500, the T’wolves have won three straight. They’ve beaten the Nuggets, Blazers and Lakers, all of whom were playoff teams a year ago. Friday was a somewhat convincing 110-92 win over the Lakers here at home. The Lakers were dealing with plenty of COVID-related absences, but still had LeBron James. Taking advantage of Anthony Davis’ absence, Minnesota dominated on the glass with a 61-36 rebounding edge, including 15-1 at the offensive end. The Mavericks’ last game was a loss to the Lakers (in overtime). They will again be without Luka Doncic tonight as well as several other players because of COVID. The Mavs just really haven’t impressed me this year and are deserved underdogs in this game. Only three teams - OKC, Orlando and Detroit - are averaging fewer points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns (24.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) will be the best player in this game and he’s wearing a T’wolves jersey. 8* Minnesota |
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12-19-21 | Spurs v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (6:05 ET): Off a huge win in Utah Friday night, San Antonio looks for just their second win streak of the season tonight in the capital city of California. From November 26th through December 4th, the Spurs won four consecutive games. But, as I just alluded to, that is their lone win streak of the season. At no other point have they won consecutive games. They’ve followed up recent wins over Denver and New Orleans with double digit losses to Denver and Charlotte. I’ll look for “usual form” to hold here as this is a rare time that the Spurs are favored on the road. Take the points. Sacramento is actually one game ahead of San Antonio in the Western Conference standings. This despite the Kings losing four of their previous five games, including a 124-105 setback at the hands of red-hot Memphis on Friday night. While playing extremely short-handed right now (COVID), Sacramento did open up a 15-point lead over the Grizzlies in the first half. They just couldn’t hold it, even though all five starters finished in double figures. The Spurs only have five road wins all year and tonight marks just the third time they will be favored away from home. Most will look at the Kings as “sitting ducks” here due to the abundance of unavailable players and their head coach also being out. But I don’t agree with them getting more than a couple points in this situation. San Antonio only won by two on Friday and has been outscored this season. Recently, we’ve seen a lot of short-handed teams win in the NBA. 8* Sacramento |
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12-18-21 | Wizards +11.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Washington (9:05 ET): Utah is very clearly one of the top teams in the NBA right now. I’ve got them rated second in my own personal power rankings, only behind Golden State. But the team that finished first in the Western Conference a season ago saw its eight-game win streak come to an end last night with a 128-126 loss to San Antonio. Now the Jazz must immediately turn around and face the Wizards and they are being asked to lay a big number in the process. I’ll take the points in this one. Washington is clearly struggling right now as they’ve won just one of their last eight contests and that was by only three points, in overtime, against a terrible Detroit team. The Wiz did not cover the spread in that win, nor have they covered in any of their last seven losses. But this is still a .500 team (15-15 SU) that’s tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference. You’ve got to figure they’re going to be desperate for a win tonight and while they may not get it, keeping this one within single digits certainly seems like a reasonable goal. The situation clearly favors Washington as they were off last night. Now they were blown out, in Phoenix, two nights ago (lost 118-98 as nine-point dogs). But this season has seen the Wizards go 6-2 ATS when off a game where they failed to score 100 points. They are also 19-8 ATS in that very situation the L3 seasons. While the Wiz were blown out by 25 at home by the Jazz last week, they did beat them in BOTH meetings last season. 10* Washington |
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12-17-21 | Grizzlies v. Kings +4 | Top | 124-105 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): The Kings pulled off a much-needed win on Wednesday, beating the slumping Wizards by a score of 119-105. Sacramento shot better than they have in awhile, making 54.9% of their FG attempts. Despite being short-handed and without their coach (COVID protocols), the Kings used a big 4Q (outscored the Wiz 35-19) to pull away. There is a concern that this game may not get played due to the Kings’ COVID outbreak. But if it is played, I like them plus the points. I have been positively STUNNED over how Memphis has played without Ja Morant. They’ve won 9 of 10 games without their superstar. On Wednesday, the Grizzlies went to Portland and held the Blazers to 37.8% shooting in a 113-103 win. Their first game without Morant was, ironically enough, against Sacramento. The Grizz won 128-101 as a four-point favorite, but that was at home. The Kings were also coming off a triple overtime win over the Lakers, so it was a bad spot. Certainly, I acknowledge that the COVID outbreak doesn’t exactly make this the most desirable spot to take Sacramento. But they are at home where they’ve won three straight and - generally speaking - are a much better team. Memphis, despite a 7-5 SU record on the road, has been outscored in those games. I just can’t see them continuing to win like this without Morant. The Kings had a horrible shooting night when they last faced Memphis. Expect them to shoot a whole lot better tonight. 10* Sacramento |
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12-17-21 | Bucks v. Pelicans OVER 218.5 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
8* Over Bucks/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Milwaukee had seven players missing from the lineup on Wednesday, one of them being Giannis Antetokounmpo. But they still defeated Indiana 114-99 for their 13th win in the last 16 games. Still short-handed, the reigning NBA Champs now head to the Big Easy to face a Pelicans team that is at the opposite end of the standings. However, NO is off a very exciting win where Devonte’ Graham made a 61-foot shot at the buzzer to beat Oklahoma City 113-110 on Wednesday. The Pelicans’ season got off to a terrible 3-16 start, but they have battled back to win six of their last 11 games including the thriller 48 hours ago. Zion Williamson hasn’t played a minute this season. As for the catalyst of the recent “turnaround,” you’ve got to point in the direction of Brandon Ingram, who averages a team-high 23.4 points per game after averaging 27.9 over the last eight games. The Bucks could get Kris Middleton back for tonight’s game, but regardless of that I like this game to go Over the total. We saw what Jrue Holliday can do on Wednesday when he scored 26 points and had a season-high 14 assists. Something to keep in mind with all these absences going around the NBA is that teams typically still find a way to score. New Orleans is on a 13-3 Over run when facing teams with winning records. The Over is 23-9 the L32 meetings between these teams, including 5-1 L6 here in NO. 8* Over Bucks/Pelicans |
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12-16-21 | Knicks v. Rockets OVER 215.5 | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Knicks/Rockets (8:05 ET): Houston had been surprising a lot of people of late, winning 8 of 10 games straight up while also going 8-1-1 ATS in the process. However, last night they ran into an even hotter Cleveland team, who slapped them with a 124-89 beatdown. That was more reminiscent of the Rockets’ 1-16 start to the season, which saw them get held under 100 points nine times. But I’m expecting a better effort tonight at the offensive end against the Knicks. New York was one of last year’s surprise teams. But as I’ve previously written, they’ve slipped considerably to start 2021-22. Last season saw them lead the league in 3PT% defense, which was not going to be repeated this year and sure enough opponents are hitting 35.4% against the Knicks from behind the arc. Last time out, NY saw history made at their expense with Steph Curry setting a new NBA record for most career three-pointers made. The Knicks lost that game 105-96 as they could only shoot 36.1% from the field. I am expecting both teams’ offensive numbers to pick up tonight. Houston is pretty bad defensively, giving up 113.0 PPG for the year. Three of their last four opponents have scored more than 120. So you’ve got to like the Knicks’ chances of putting up a high number this evening. Julius Randle had a 25-point second half vs. the Warriors, so he's the player to watch. I know the Rockets are playing short-handed (top four scorers were all out last night), but this is the NBA and teams almost always find ways to score. The Over is 6-0 when Houston is in the second night of a back to back. 10* Over Knicks/Rockets |
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12-15-21 | Hornets v. Spurs UNDER 227 | Top | 131-115 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Hornets/Spurs (8:35 ET): San Antonio has a real “imbalance” when it comes to Over/Unders at home vs. on the road. The Over is 10-1 so far in Spurs’ home games. But when the team hits the road, they are 10-1 Under. They are at home tonight, facing a Charlotte team whose games - on average - are the highest scoring in the NBA (231.5 PPG). This has led the oddsmakers to set the highest O/U line for any Spurs’ game this season. While there is an inherent risk playing the Under with the Hornets team, I believe that’s the way to go tonight. While San Antonio has the highest Over rate in the league at home, Charlotte is #2. But this is obviously a road game for the Hornets and the Over is more “modest” 9-8 when they are away. The Hornets had gone Over in eight straight games overall before losing 120-96 in Dallas on Monday. What’s key to note with Charlotte right now is that they have been playing short-handed due to COVID protocols. Initially, they stayed competitive, but then we saw what happened last time out. After a poor start to the season, the Spurs have been better of late. They are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in their L9 games. They last played on Sunday when they turned in a solid defensive effort, holding New Orleans to 97 points on 42.6% shooting. That was just the second Spurs’ home game to go Under this season. The fact this is the highest O/U line for any San Antonio game this year is notable. Will their starting five combine to score 88 points again, as they did in the last game? Unlikely. 8* Under Hornets/Spurs |
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12-15-21 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
8* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Pacers need this game more than the Bucks. Indiana (despite a positive point differential for the year) currently sits in 13th place in the East with a 12-15 overall record. There are six teams ahead of them with worse YTD point differentials. A case can definitely be made that the Pacers "ought" to be higher in the standings right now. Milwaukee is doing well (18-11, 3rd in the East) but they will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight (COVID-19). Giannis isn't the only unavailable player. Six Bucks players have been ruled out for this game and that doesn't even include Kris Middleton (knee), who is listed as questionable. It's going to be a real "skeleton crew" out there tonight for the Bucks. This just seems like the perfect opportunity for Indiana to end its 0-6 ATS run in Milwaukee? 8* Indiana |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): This game is on TNT. Phoenix comes in off a loss, just its second in the last 22 games, as they fell 111-95 at the Clippers last night. It should be noted that it was also the Suns’ second loss in the last four games (after a franchise-record 18-game win streak) and second straight loss on the road. (They were beaten 118-96 at Golden State on 12/3). The Suns should obviously be respected, but I think they’re “due” to drop another one tonight in Portland. It should be noted that the loss to the Warriors was the last time Phoenix found itself in the second night of a back to back. The same situation is a whole lot worse tonight because the team is without both Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton. Without rest, the Suns have NOT performed well this season, going 1-4 ATS and being outscored by 7.6 PPG. While the Suns are a top three team in my power ratings, I don’t think they’re quite as good as either the Warriors or Jazz. Point differential & net efficiency backs my assertion up, so look for the Suns to fall behind those two aforementioned Western Conference powers in the coming days/weeks. The Blazers are hoping to avoid what would be a fifth consecutive home loss here. Such a streak is rather odd considering they were 10-1 SU to start the year at the Moda Center. Damian Lillard is back and had 24 points with a season-high 11 rebounds in Sunday’s 116-111 loss to Minnesota. I expect Lillard to shoot better tonight than he did vs. the T’wolves (5 of 17). But the most convincing thing here about Portland is that they’ve already wiped the court with Phoenix once this season, winning 134-105 back on Oct 23rd. That was here at home. It won’t be that lopsided this time, but take the points. 10* Portland |
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12-14-21 | Warriors v. Knicks OVER 211.5 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
8* Over Warriors/Knicks (7:35 ET): So, it is a virtual lock that tonight Steph Curry will break Ray Allen’s NBA record for most three-pointers made. Curry could not have asked for a bigger stage as the Warriors will visit Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks on TNT. With history about to be made, expect the Warriors (Curry in particular) to come out firing. As a team, they were just 8 of 30 from three-point range in last night’s 102-100 win over Indiana. Curry was 5 of 15 and now needs only three more threes to surpass Allen. He’ll make a lot more than three tonight as it should be a big offensive night. The Knicks were a surprise team last year, finishing 41-31, good for 4th place in the Western Conference. A big reason for their success was leading the league in 3-pt FG% defense. They haven’t been nearly as good this year at defending the three-point arc and as a result, the Knicks enter tonight’s showdown with a 12-15 SU record and are just 12th in the Eastern Conference. Having lost three straight and six of their last seven games, there’s much work to be done in the Big Apple. I do think the home team will have a bigger offensive night than expected here. Golden State was fortunate that Indiana shot only 23.3% from three last night. New York, who shoots 36.0% from three for the year, should do a lot better than that. I know the Knicks are off B2B sub-100 point games and the Warriors have been an “Under machine” thus far. (Under is 20-7 in all GS games). But even if the Knicks only score 100 here, I think it’s reasonable to expect 110+ from the Warriors and that means the game goes Over. 8* Over Warriors/Knicks |
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12-13-21 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Wizards/Nuggets (9:05 ET): After a brief stop back home, the Wizards are back out on the road Monday to start what will be a six-game trip that takes them to X-Mas. Saturday’s return home did not go well as the Wiz lost 123-98 to the Jazz. That was their fourth loss in the last five games and fifth in the last seven. Believe it or not, Washington was actually up 51-50 at the half. But their defensive effort over the final 24 minutes left a lot to be desired and it was the fifth Over in the last six games for the Wiz. Denver is on a 10-1 Over run. Their scoring has been way up of late as they’ve averaged 113.6 points the last five games. At the same time, the Nuggets have also allowed 111.4 PPG those last five contests. However, all of their games this month have been on the road. This will be Denver’s 1st home game since 11/26. What’s notable about this is that the Nuggets allow only 98.7 PPG. I also expect their recent shooting to “cool off” after such a long road trip. Denver only scores 103.5 PPG at home. So this O/U line is much higher than the combined average number of points scored here at the Pepsi Center this season, which is 202.2 per game. Washington only averages 102.7 PPG on the road. Their number of points allowed has gone up recently, but for the season the Wizards still are allowing only 107.4 PPG. Kyle Kuzma (COVID list) won’t play for Washington tonight while Denver is dealing with multiple absences. 10* Under Wizards/Nuggets |
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12-12-21 | Wolves v. Blazers | Top | 116-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:05 ET): Both these teams have been struggling mightily as of late. The Blazers have lost four in a row, all by double digits, while Minnesota has lost five in a row with the last three defeats coming by an average of 20 PPG. So something is going to have to give Sunday night in the Pacific Northwest. Injuries aside, my power ratings say Portland should be a solid favorite in this spot. With the chance that Damian Lillard could return to the lineup tonight, my money is on the home team. Portland has lost its last three home games. However, there’s no denying the fact this is a much better team at home than on the road. The Blazers fell to 1-11 SU away from home with a 104-94 loss at Golden State on Wednesday. But they are still 10-4 SU here at the Moda Center where their number of points scored rises to 111.7 PPG and their number of points allowed drops to 106.9 PPG. The home court advantage seems especially valuable for tonight as Minnesota has dropped eight straight here in Portland. Lillard could return and the Blazers are at home. That’s two reasons to like them. Another is the amount of time off they’ve had between games. For the first time this year, Portland will be taking the court with three days of rest. Minnesota last played on Friday when they trailed by as many as 30 at home vs. Cleveland. Defensively, the T’wolves are a mess right now having allowed 110 or more points in seven of their last eight games. Their last three losses were all at home. On the road, they allow even more PPG. 10* Portland |
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12-11-21 | Kings +7 v. Cavs | Top | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (8:00 ET): This is an interesting matchup as both teams are in the second night of a back to back. The Kings lost Friday, 124-123 in Charlotte, after De’Aaron Fox missed two free throws with 2.4 seconds remaining. I was personally happy to see that as I was on Charlotte. But for the Kings, it was a difficult “pill to swallow,” not just because of Fox’s missed free throws, but they led most of the game (by as many as nine in the 3Q) and the Hornets seemingly “couldn’t miss” (shot 55.2%). Look for them to bounce back here though, at least ATS, as they’re catching a decent number here in Cleveland. The Cavs continued their surprising start with a dominant 123-106 win at Minnesota last night. They led by as many as 30 (on the road!). With the win and cover, Cleveland is now 19-6-2 ATS, which is the best cover percentage in the league. Although they are 4-0 ATS when favored, this is a tricky spot for the Cavs, who are unrested and rarely this large of a favorite. I can’t possibly see them matching the red-hot shooting of last night where they were 54.1% from the field (shot over 60% in the 1H). You have to tip your cap to Cleveland, who is undoubtedly THE biggest surprise team in the NBA. They entered this season with the fifth lowest power rating in the league, but now project to be a playoff team. They’ve covered the spread in 9 of their previous 10 games, but what’s interesting about that is the lone ATS loss during that stretch (at Milwaukee) came on the second night of a back to back. The Cavs’ last 9 ATS wins have all come when playing with at least one day of rest. The Kings will come into this game hungrier and - at the very worst - keep it close. 10* Sacramento |
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12-10-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans UNDER 212 | Top | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Pistons/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Two teams whose games have been higher scoring than usual of late collide in the Big Easy on Friday. Both the Pistons and Pelicans are off overtime losses, which at least partly explains some of the added scoring we’ve seen of late. Detroit went down at home to Washington on Wednesday, losing 119-116 on a buzzer beater. That was the Pistons’ 10th straight loss, a streak which goes back to 11/19. As for New Orleans, their OT loss on Wednesday was also at home, 120-114 to the Nuggets. I’m looking for this game not to be as high scoring though and will jump on the Under. Detroit shot 54.2% from three-point range against Washington (and still lost!). Do not expect them to come anywhere close to that percentage tonight. Not only are the Pistons shooting only 31% from behind the arc for the season, but they are 29th in overall scoring (99.8 PPG) and offensive efficiency (ahead of only OKC in both categories). Plus they are 30th (i.e. last) in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Over the last nine games, the Pistons have not scored more than 106 points in regulation. Four times they’ve been held below 100 points. New Orleans averages just 103.7 PPG for the year, but the L5 games have seen them score 111.8 PPG. Again, going to OT on Wednesday partially explains the increase in scoring. There was also a win over the Clippers where the Pelicans scored 123 points. But just like the Pistons, you can’t expect this level of scoring to continue. New Orleans is bottom five in both offensive efficiency and effective field goals percentage. It was a lot of turnovers on Wednesday (25) that led to them giving up 120 points. They won’t be that careless again, nor will Detroit shoot 51% overall like Denver did. Can’t see the Pelicans matching their own 52.2% shooting from the last game either and the Under is 4-0 the L4 times they’ve been home chalk. 10* Under Pistons/Pelicans |
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12-10-21 | Kings v. Hornets +1.5 | Top | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The oddsmakers seem to be underrating the Hornets as of late. That’s understandable as the team is without three starters and two reserves due to COVID-19 protocol, plus they have also lost five of their last six games. But, including B2B close losses to the 76ers here at home, Charlotte has managed to go 4-0 ATS in its last four games. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that’s on a 3-0 SU/ATS winning run. My power ratings say the Hornets should still be favored here, so I’m rolling with them. Earlier I mentioned that Charlotte is just 1-5 SU in its last six games. But five of those games have been decided by four points or less and the Hornets have come out on the losing end in four of them. So they easily could have a better overall record coming into this game. What’s really hurt them is an 0-4 SU record in OT games this season. The first loss to Philadelphia was an OT game, then the Hornets came up just four points short in the rematch on Wednesday. In the wake of all the absences, other players have stepped up for the Hornets. Gordon Hayward had a season-high 31 points on Wednesday. Charlotte should have no problem scoring tonight against a Sacramento team that just gave up 130 points in its last game. Prior to their last two games, the Kings have had three and two days off. Here, it’s just one day between games. Sacramento also has only five wins by more than five points all season. With one of those five coming against Charlotte (140-110 back on 11/5), the Hornets are “thinking revenge” coming into this one. The Kings are also 0-7 ATS the L3 seasons off a game where they scored 130+ points. 8* Charlotte |
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12-09-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This is a situation where I anticipate that “the world” will be on the Lakers as they are laying a short number to a Memphis team that lost last night. But it certainly seems foolish to discount a Grizzlies team that won (and covered) its first five games without Ja Morant. One of those wins came by 73 points over Oklahoma City, which set a new NBA record for largest margin of victory in league history. Last night’s game against Dallas saw the Grizzlies seemingly run out of gas late as they were outscored 28-21 in the fourth quarter. The final score was 104-96, an outright loss as 2.5-point favorites. While this is the second night of a back to back, I think it’s worth noting that Memphis at least gets to stay home. That alleviates some of the issues typically associated with this situation. Also, note that Dillon Brooks was ejected late in the 4Q last night, which may have an inspiring effect on both he and his teammates for tonight. As a team, Memphis shot just 40% against the Mavs, including 9 of 31 from three-point range. I expect better shooting tonight as the Grizz are 6-1 SU and ATS this season after a game where they were held under 100 points. They are also 9-4 ATS as underdogs. The Lakers are just 13-12 SU this season, including 4-5 on the road. Now a lot of that has to do with LeBron James missing a lot of action. James is expected to be on the court tonight. However, he would be matching a season-high by playing in his third consecutive game. Not sure he will be able to match his 30-point effort (on 13 of 19 shooting) that he had against Boston on Tuesday. Same with Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, both of whom also had double doubles. I just think the Lakers are a mediocre basketball team right now and the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to that fact. Take the points. 10* Memphis |
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12-08-21 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 210.5 | Top | 92-115 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Chicago has won and covered four straight, but tonight they will be without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who is in the league’s “health and safety protocols” due to COVID-19. DeRozan, the league’s fourth leading scorer at 26.4 PPG, is a significant loss to the Bulls. However, they did just score 109 points without him in a win over Denver on Monday. Tonight, I expect they’ll easily crack the 100-point barrier once again. With a low total, that means I’m going Over in this one. Cleveland, like Chicago, is another surprising team. The Cavs enter Wednesday with a 13-12 SU record and are 8th in the East. That may not sound all that impressive, but when you consider how moribund this franchise has been in the “non-LeBron years” the last decade-plus, it’s certainly an improvement. The Cavs had their own four-game win streak snapped on Sunday with a 109-108 loss to the Jazz. Then they went down to another of the league’s top teams, Milwaukee, 112-104 on Monday. That snapped a 7-game ATS win streak. The Bulls are a perfect 6-0 Over this season after holding their previous opponent to 100 points or less. That’s the situation they are in here, coming off the aforementioned win over Denver. Chicago is averaging 110.2 PPG on the road this year. While a big part of that is DeRozan, the team can still turn to the likes of Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, all of whom have turned in big games lately. For Cleveland, this is a rare instance of being favored (just 3rd time all season). Having scored 104+ points in eight consecutive games, they’ve been just fine offensively without Collin Sexton. I think this is a case where oddsmakers have set the O/U line far too low, based on a couple of absences. Both teams will be fine. 10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers |
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12-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): Two teams missing star players meet on the court Monday as the Heat play host to the Grizzlies. Surprisingly, Memphis has gone 4-0 SU and ATS without Ja Morant, a stretch which includes a record-setting 152-79 beatdown of the Thunder last Thursday. But you can’t play the likes of OKC every night and even though that win (largest MOV in NBA history) was followed by a 97-90 win in Dallas on Saturday, I just don’t think that the Grizz can continue to win like this without Morant. Miami has been without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, resulting in them losing three of their last four games. Adebayo is out for six weeks, so forget about him for now. But there’s a chance Butler could return to the lineup tonight. Regardless if he does or not, expect the Heat to win “going away.” There’s still enough firepower on hand here, including Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. Look for the team to shoot a lot better tonight than it did vs. Milwaukee (40.5%) on Saturday. Though it’s the 73-point win that grabbed all the headlines, the Grizzlies have been winning mostly because of their defense, which has held the last four opponents well below 40% from the field. That likely cannot continue. Even with the record-setting win over OKC, the Grizz still have a negative point differential for the season and on the road they are being outscored by over eight points per game. Miami remains a top four team in the Eastern Conference and their defensive numbers are set to improve. 10* Miami |
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12-05-21 | Wizards v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* Toronto (6:05 ET): The Raptors are just 4-10 (SU and ATS) over their last 14 games with three separate three-game losing streaks. But, in the midst of what is a pretty long homestand, they did just knock off the reigning NBA Champion Bucks Thursday night, 97-93 as 4.5-point dogs. That was no small feat as Milwaukee entered the game on an 8-game winning streak. Toronto’s home record of 3-8 SU still leaves a lot to be desired, but I’m willing to lay a small number on Sunday in what looks to be a favorable spot. The Raptors will host Washington tonight. The Wizards are coming off a 116-101 loss to Cleveland on Friday where at one point they were on the wrong end of a 27-2 run. They never led after the first quarter and at one point found themselves behind by as many as 36 points. Now the Wiz are set to play three road games in four nights. This hasn’t been a very good road team as they score just 101.8 PPG away from home. The last six road games have seen the Wizards go 1-5 ATS. Toronto has failed to score 100 points in four consecutive games while shooting around 40%. You’ve got to figure they are due to breakthrough offensively. The Wizards are not exactly known for their defense and have given up an average of 110.4 points their L5 games. The Raptors have done a good job defensively, at least recently, holding their last three opponents all below 42% shooting. They held Memphis to 38.7% and Milwaukee to 37.6%! The upcoming schedule is favorable and this is a team due to go on a run at home. 10* Toronto |
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12-04-21 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 220 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Bulls/Nets (7:35 ET): These are the two top teams in the Eastern Conference right now. With Brooklyn, that’s not a surprise as they came into the season as the consensus top team in the East (even with the status of Kyrie Irving). Chicago has been a surprise as they are 15-8 SU and just a 1.5 games behind the Nets. This is the best start by any Bulls team since 2015-16 and it includes an impressive 23-point win over the Nets (at home) last month. The Bulls come into tonight off B2B wins. Brooklyn played last night and was able to outlast the pesky Timberwolves 110-105. But they did not cover the 7.5-point spread. The game also stayed Under despite a combined 65 free throw attempts from the two teams. That high number of FTs was offset by poor three-point shooting, especially from the Nets, who were just 6 of 23 from behind the arc. I expect them to improve - dramatically - on that number here. The Over had been 5-1 in the Nets’ L6 games prior to last night with five straight seeing at least 220 total points scored. Chicago’s last two games have both been high-scoring as they beat the Hornets 133-119 and the Knicks 119-115. The Bulls have displayed very good three-point shooting so far, making 37% of their attempts from behind the arc. That percentage is even higher on the road. Looking at the Nets’ 3-pt defense, I just don’t think they can continue to hold teams to 30.9%. Brooklyn didn’t shoot well in the previous meeting with Chicago (39.5%) while the Bulls were only 29.0% from three. I think those percentages will be improved tonight. 10* Over Bulls/Nets |
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12-03-21 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Mavs | Top | 107-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:35 ET): The Pelicans look for revenge tonight after being run out of their own gym in their last game. The Mavericks beat them 139-107 on Wednesday while shooting a blistering 68.7% from the field. That kind of offensive performance doesn’t happen all that often (it was a franchise-record!), so I think it’s safe to say we can expect colder shooting from the Mavs here tonight. I know that New Orleans has gotten off to a bad start this season (6-18), but they’d won three of four going into Wednesday night’s game. This is a spot where I want to take the points. Aside from the top three teams (Phoenix, Golden State & Utah), all of whom are VERY good, the Western Conference is looking a little depth-shy this season. The Mavs come into tonight in fourth place, but they’ve actually allowed more points than they’ve scored this season. Jason Kidd’s team had to be ecstatic with their own offensive effort Weds night considering their previous two opponents shot 57% and 56% against them. In their last home game, Dallas lost 114-96 to Cleveland. The inconsistency of this team makes it hard for me to believe they are capable of turning in a second straight dominant performance, which is what is needed with this kind of spread. The Mavs have lost five of seven, so New Orleans was the hotter team entering Wednesday’s game. It boiled down to Dallas coming out red hot. The Mavs were 18 of 34 from three-point range, which certainly won’t be duplicated here as they are just 34.1% for the year from behind the arc. Not only are the Pelicans 5-2 ATS off their previous seven straight up losses, but the Mavs are just 1-4 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a double digit win. Take the points here. 10* New Orleans |
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12-03-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): The 76ers come into Friday having won just 3 of their last 12 games. They lost 88-87 in Boston on Wednesday as Joel Embiid, still working his way back from a three-week absence due to COVID-19, struggled again. Embiid had 42 points and 14 rebounds in his first game back, but has gone a miserable 7 of 33 from the floor in the two games since. As a team, the 76ers are shooting just 40.8% in their L5 games. But I expect them to “step up” tonight in what amounts to a “must-win” game at Atlanta. The Hawks have played much better than the 76ers recently, winning 8 of their last 10 including a 114-111 at Indiana on Wednesday. But they remain short-handed as Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter all remain out of action. Trae Young really carried the team with a 33-point effort on Wednesday, but the Hawks probably can’t rely on that again here. This is a team that is heavily two-point dependent and the Sixers do an excellent job at defending inside the arc, especially with Embiid on the floor. Despite Embiid’s struggles in the L2 games, the All-Star clear makes Philly more formidable. Again, I expect the Sixers to break out of their recent shooting slump here (Atlanta is just 23rd in defensive efficiency). With a healthy Embiid, they smoked the Hawks earlier in the year, 122-94, as they shot 53.5% from the field. That gave them a measure of revenge after being eliminated from LY’s playoffs by the Hawks, but you know Philly will be hungry for more. The Sixers’ last two losses were both by one point and they are better than their 11-11 SU record. Take the points. 8* Philadelphia |
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12-02-21 | Thunder v. Grizzlies UNDER 212.5 | Top | 79-152 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): While I did cash an Over ticket involving the Thunder last night, that required a 70-point fourth quarter with 41 points coming from the opposition. Losing two straight times to the Rockets (who have the worst record in the Western Conference) should tell you “all you need to know” about the current state of OKC, who has now lost seven in a row (five by seven points or less). It is highly unlikely that they will match last night’s 110 point effort here as that was the team’s highest scoring game in more than a month. Memphis had a seven-game Over run halted on Tuesday when they beat Toronto 98-91. Expect more low-scoring games to follow now that the Grizzlies are playing without leading scorer Ja Morant. The Grizz have not been anything close to “stout” at the defensive end (they allow the most points per possession in the league), but tonight they are facing the league’s second lowest scoring team (OKC averages only 99.0 PPG), so Under is going to be the call here. The Thunder’s paltry scoring average dips even further on the road, down to 95.2 PPG. But the one thing that they do well is holding teams to 43.9% shooting. They’ve even been a bit better defensively when on the road (42.5 FG% allowed), which is why the Under is 8-2 in Thunder away games this season. Last night, they held Houston under 30 points in each of the first three quarters before imploding in the fourth. I don’t see that happening again. Considering you’ve got the second-lowest scoring team in the league against a Morant-less Grizzlies, I just don’t see many points being scored in this one. 10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies |
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12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 213.5 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
10* Over Rockets/Thunder (8:05 ET): You’ve got two bad teams here, meeting for the second time in three days and the fourth time this year. None of the previous three encounters have been particularly close. The home team has won all three times. It was the Rockets prevailing 102-89 on Monday, just 12 days after losing 101-89 in Oklahoma City. The teams also met in the second game of the season and that was the biggest blowout of all with the Rockets winning 124-91. In addition to every game being a blowout, all three previous meetings also stayed Under the total. In that regard, I look for a different story tonight. Houston has not won a road game all season. They are 0-11 SU away from home, though they have covered the number five times. But they enter Wednesday’s game not just off a win over OKC, but on a three-game SU win streak. Now that was preceded by a 15-game losing skid, so you shouldn’t get too excited. The 89 points they allowed to the Thunder on Monday was a season-low. But on the road, the Rockets are giving up 113.0 PPG. Don’t forget that two games ago, they were involved in a wild 146-143 final with Charlotte. Yes, the game went to OT. But there were still 270 combined points scored in regulation. On the road, don’t expect the same defensive effort we saw Monday. OKC has lost six in a row, though they had covered the spread in each of the five losses prior to going down in Houston 48 hours ago. The Thunder are obviously not a great team offensively, but you have to expect them to shoot better than the 35.6% we saw on Monday night. That game saw them go 7 for 43 (!) from three-point range, an absolutely abysmal number that will be improved upon - likely by a lot - tonight. Each of the previous three Houston-OKC encounters have seen both sides put up a ton of 3PA. I look for BOTH teams to shoot the ball better here than they did Monday (Houston was only at 41.7%). 10* Over Rockets/Thunder |
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11-30-21 | Lakers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 117-92 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): With the Western Conference being SO depth-shy this season, it feels like the perfect time for the Kings to end their mind-numbing 15-year playoff drought. But entering tonight, they are in 11th place, five games below .500 and two games back of where they’d need to be just to make the play-in round. The good news is that the season is still young. But if they wish to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007, they can’t afford to fall too far behind. They’ve already fired Luke Walton, which tells me there’s a real sense of desperation in Sacramento right now. The same sense of desperation doesn’t exist down in LA, but it probably should for a Lakers team that is just 11-11 SU and being outscored on a per game and per play basis. Now being without LeBron James for several games has played a role in that, but with James in the lineup the Lakers lost to the Kings 141-137 in triple overtime last week. They bounced back by beating the lowly Pistons on Sunday, but by just four points and again that was with LeBron in the lineup. Most are going to want to lay this short number with the Lakers as they are playing with revenge. But it’s been nearly three weeks since the Lakers posted B2B victories and both of those were by only three points. In fact, five of the Lakers seven wins this month have been by five points or less and none have been by more than eight! They are just 4-12 ATS as favorites this season and I think the Kings, motivated by an early-season coaching change, are capable of beating the Lakers for a second time in less than a week. Take the points. 10* Sacramento |
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11-26-21 | Blazers +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): Going to take a chance with the Blazers here as they are catching a decent number. Now it’s against Golden State, who is 16-2 SU and looking like the best team in the league. It’s also a road game for Portland, and they’ve struggled in those, going 1-8 both straight up and against the spread. But prior to losing by just four points in Sacramento, this team had won four in a row, albeit all at home. I think taking the points is the right move here as Portland is one of the few teams capable of matching the Warriors at the offensive end. (Blazers are #4 in offensive efficiency). Golden State’s two losses this year have been by a total of seven points and one of them was in overtime. So, yeah, I’d say it’s been a really impressive start. They have - by far and away - the league’s top point differential as they are beating opponents by an average of 13.5 PPG. They’ve won five straight, four of those coming by double digits. But this figures to be their toughest test since facing Brooklyn. It comes after a holiday and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dubs come out a bit “sluggish” in this one. They were down 19 in the 2Q Wednesday against Philadelphia, who was short-handed and playing its sixth straight road game. If they are to get an advantage, I don’t think the Blazers will let the Warriors “off the hook” the same way the Sixers did. I know it’s been a struggle on the road. Portland’s lone win away from home so far was against Houston. But the team played well in Sacramento. Damian Lillard had 32 points and 10 assists while Jusuf Nurkic contributed a season-high 28 points and 17 rebounds. You know the underdog is going to come in highly motivated for this one and Golden State isn’t going to win every game. Portland has averaged 117.6 points in its L5 games, so they can easily stay within the number here. 8* Portland |
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11-26-21 | Suns v. Knicks OVER 216 | Top | 118-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Knicks (7:05 ET): If you thought the Suns were going to “regress” after LY’s surprising run to the NBA Finals, perhaps it’s time to reassess. Phoenix is the hottest team in the league right now, having won 14 in a row. They are 15-3 overall. The only team with a better record right now is Golden State, who is 16-2 SU. The Suns have won six in a row on the road, however the last two away games - a 115-111 win over San Antonio and 120-115 win over Cleveland - were both close against subpar opposition. That should give the Knicks some semblance of hope heading into tonight’s contest. New York is off what it should consider a big win as they beat the Lakers 106-100 on Tuesday. Although LeBron James did not play for LA in that one, the Knicks will gladly take the win after they had lost four of their previous six games. But what I’m choosing to focus on here is the fact the last eight Knicks games have all stayed Under the total. That’s quite the streak. But it can’t last forever and I’d be really surprised if we don’t start to see Knicks’ games get a bit higher scoring. The L5 have seen them average only 101.0 PPG. That’s down from 107.2 for the season. They are allowing just 99.2 points the L5 games, down from 106.4 for the season. Phoenix can definitely score. They come in averaging 112.3 points per game (tied for #2 in the league) and their L4 games have all gone Over the total. The Suns have shot better than 50% in each of those last four games. So they really are the ideal opponent for this Knicks’ Under streak to come to an end. Both times these teams met last season, the end result was an Over. There were 228 and 233 total points scored in those two games. The Over is 5-0 the previous five times the Knicks have been a home dog. 10* Over Suns/Knicks |
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11-24-21 | Hawks -4 v. Spurs | Top | 124-106 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:30 ET): Here’s a shocking stat for you: the Hawks are 0-9 ATS on the road. No other team in the NBA is either perfect or winless against the spread, at home or on the road. It’s just the Hawks. They are also 1-8 SU away from home, so things have not been going well - at all - on their travels. However, a recently completed five-game home stand saw Atlanta go 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS. The lone game they didn’t cover was Monday vs. OKC when they were 13-point favorites and won by only 12. I think it’s got to be time for the Hawks to snap this shocking ATS losing skid on the road. They’ll be visiting a San Antonio team that simply isn’t very good this year. I’ve got the Spurs rated 25th in my personal power ratings, probably the lowest they’ve ever been in the Greg Popovich era. Only three other teams from the West are rated lower - New Orleans, OKC & Houston. The Spurs have lost five straight, three of those coming by double digits. It was a game effort against red-hot Phoenix on Monday, but they still came up a few points short in that one. That Suns-Spurs game wasn’t even close entering the 4Q as SA was behind by 15. They shot just 5 of 20 from three-point range. Now the Spurs do score a lot more at home. But Atlanta is averaging 117.4 PPG during its current win streak while San Antonio has averaged only 101.6 PPG during its losing streak. These are two clubs going in opposite directions right now and I expect the Hawks to pick up their first ATS road win of 2021-22. Lay the points. 10* Atlanta |
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11-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic +8 | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
9* Orlando (7:05 ET): I am fully aware just how poorly the Magic played their last time out. It was a humbling 123-92 defeat at the hands of the Bucks and it was honestly even worse than that final score suggests. Orlando not only faced a franchise record 41-point deficit at halftime, but at one point trailed by as many as 51! How then could I possibly turn around and endorse them here? Well, the Magic won’t be facing the reigning NBA Champs tonight. Instead, they are hosting an overrated Charlotte side. The Hornets are 5th in the East with an 11-8 SU record, but still have a negative point differential on the season. They’ve gotten hot recently, winning six of seven while also going 6-1 ATS. But they were underdogs in virtually every one of the games. In fact, the one time they were favored, it was a single point. This game will mark just the fourth time all season that Charlotte has been favored and the first by more than five points. It must be noted that when they were five-point favorites vs. Cleveland earlier this month, the Hornets lost outright. Orlando is only 1-6 SU/ATS at the Amway Center thus far, but it’s been 10 days since they last played a home game. They are coming off a brutal road trip that saw them face the Hawks, Knicks, Nets and then the Bucks twice. I think that after suffering such an embarrassing defeat on Monday, the Magic are going to come out pretty motivated here. Charlotte not only has a losing road record, but they are 29th in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 9* Orlando |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have been going Under quite a bit recently. That includes a head to head meeting with one another, back on the 17th, which was won by Charlotte 97-87. This recent rash of Unders is a little surprising, at least for the Hornets, who rank 29th (next to last) in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up 113.7 PPG. So I think that we’re “due” for an Over tonight. Not surprisingly, the total for tonight’s rematch is several points lower than where it was for last week’s meeting. It’s also on track to be the lowest O/U line for any Charlotte game this season. The previous low was 216.5 for a game vs. Indiana on Friday. Interestingly enough, that was the ONLY time in the Hornets’ last six games that the Over hit. The final score was 121-118. So I’m seeing some real value on this number. Both teams are off to surprisingly good starts this season. Especially the Wizards, who are 7-1 SU at home where they are averaging 112.0 PPG. That’s a dramatic increase from how many points they are scoring on the road. In addition, you’ve got to figure they’ll shoot better than they did last week vs. Charlotte when they finished at just 36.7% from the field. The Wiz were just 8 of 42 from three-point range in that game! 10* Over Hornets/Wizards |
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11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 221 | Top | 108-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): This will be the second meeting of the year between these teams. Back on October 23rd, the Grizzlies won a high-scoring contest, 120-114 as four-point road underdogs. That was the second game of the season for both teams. The Clippers found themselves at 1-4 SU through five games, but have turned it around in November (despite multiple injuries) by winning eight of their last nine. So Memphis should expect a tougher challenge in this second go-around. It should also be a much lower-scoring game. Take the Under. The sharp decline in scoring, league-wide, has been one of the big stories so far this NBA season. The Clippers are allowing only 102.5 PPG and Tuesday saw them hold San Antonio to just 92 in a comfortable win. With Kawhi Leonard out, Paul George has mostly carried the scoring burden at the offensive end. But he’s also gotten some help from unexpected contributors, such as Luke Kennard and Brandon Boston Jr on Monday. I wouldn’t expect a repeat effort from either of those two tonight. Also, key reserve Terrance Mann is likely still out due to an ankle injury. Memphis poured in a season-high 136 points Monday. But that was against lowly Houston. Six of the Grizzlies’ previous seven games had stayed Under the total. Monday was also only the second time in the last 11 games that the Grizzlies scored more than 108 points. They are more healthy than the Clippers are right now, but don’t expect Memphis to shoot as well as they did in the first meeting. The Under has hit the previous five times they have been an underdog. 10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies |
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11-17-21 | Cavs +11 v. Nets | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): This spread is too high, even before taking into account the fact that Brooklyn is in the second game of a back to back. The Nets were hammered here at home last night by Golden State in a 117-99 loss that prompted HC Steve Nash to remark that his team doesn’t belong in the same conversation as some of the top teams in this league. The Nets are 10-5 SU overall, but 0-4 against the Warriors, Heat, Bulls and Bucks. Kevin Durant was held to a season-low 19 points Tuesday night and was clearly outplayed by Steph Curry. While it’s a drop in class tonight hosting Cleveland, I’ll be taking the points in this one. The Cavs have definitely been a surprise at the outset of the 2021-22 season. They are 9-6 SU and also tied for the best ATS record in the league at 10-4-1. I did play AGAINST the Monday night, but that was when they were a short home dog against a revenge-minded Boston team. Even that game was close, though I walked away with a winning ticket. Losing standout rookie Evan Mobley to an elbow injury definitely hurts, but this is a team that has yet to be blown out all year. 10* Cleveland |
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11-16-21 | Spurs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-16-21 | 76ers +9 v. Jazz | Top | 85-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): These two teams each finished first in their respective conferences last year in the regular season. But neither got to the NBA Finals. Both were actually ousted in the second round of the playoffs, the Sixers by the Hawks and the Jazz by the Clippers. Fast starts to the 2021-22 campaign had them each at/near the top again, but both have since faded. Philly comes into tonight on a four-game losing streak while Utah has lost four of its last five, including two straight. I think you have to take the points here. Now I’m well aware that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid as well as several other key contributors. They haven’t won since Embiid tested positive for COVID-19. But all four losses have been by nine points or fewer. On Saturday against Indiana, the 76ers got 24 points from Tyrese Maxey and 16-11 (points & rebounds) from Andre Drummond. Scoring wasn’t a problem as the team finished with 113 points. The problem was letting the Pacers shoot a blistering 57.3% from the field. I do not see that happening again tonight. Utah has struggled to score of late, not topping 105 points in three of its last four contests. They were down 22 in the fourth quarter against Miami on Saturday, the second straight game they fell behind by double digits. With this being a national TV game (TNT), the Sixers aren’t going to want to get embarrassed, so look for them to be plenty motivated and keep this game closer than the oddsmakers think. They’ve covered seven of the last eight meetings with Utah. 8* Philadelphia |
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11-15-21 | Celtics -2 v. Cavs | Top | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 19-point lead here in Cleveland on Saturday night and lost 91-89. It was an absolutely shocking turn of events after the Cavs were held to just nine points in the first quarter and trailed for almost the entirety of the game. Said Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff, “There is no basketball reason why we should have won, but there was a collective spirit," "Momentum is a hell of a thing. When you start to ride that wave in either direction, it changes the game.” Now personally, I’m not a big believer in “momentum.” I expect Boston to get its revenge Monday. Cleveland is 9-5 SU and currently fourth in the Eastern Conference standings. Not sure anyone was expecting to see that. The Cavs came into the season with the fifth lowest projected win total in the league. The fact they are a league-best 10-3-1 ATS affirms how they have caught many, including the oddsmakers, by surprise. But at some point you have to expect this run will subside. The Cavs have been rather fortunate to win four games by three points or less this month. I still have them 22nd in the power rankings and remain unsold if they’ll even finish with a .500 record. Cleveland is also missing some players, such as Lauri Markkanen, Lamar Stevens, Collin Sexton and Kevin Love. All of those players were out Saturday, making the 19-point rally seem all the more improbable. You’ve got to believe that Boston will shoot better than it did on Friday. I’ve still got them rated as the better team here - comfortably so. That means I’ve got no issue laying a short number in a revenge spot. They were up 19 on this team 48 hours ago. I’ve got all the confidence in the world that they’ll win here. 10* Boston |
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11-14-21 | Warriors v. Hornets OVER 226.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Warriors/Hornets (7:05 ET): For weeks now, I’ve been saying that while the Warriors were clearly ascending back to the top of the NBA pecking order, they would not again reach the heights of their previous championship teams. Well, maybe we need to revisit that thought. Because I’ve got Golden State #1 in my power ratings right now. They’ve won seven straight games coming into Sunday and covered the spread in all seven. Charlotte is a team that will be looking to pull a third consecutive upset tonight. Their last two games have seen them defeat Memphis (as a 4.5 point dog) and New York (as a 2.5 point dog). Prior to those two upset wins, the Hornets did drop five in a row - both SU and ATS. They’re now back at .500, but if I was a betting man (and I am), I’d predict them to finish with a worse record than last year. These teams did meet earlier this month and the Warriors won 114-92. It was an awful shooting night for the Hornets as they made just 37.4% of their FG attempts, including only 10 of 36 from three-point range. Expect them to shoot better tonight as they are at home. The team’s scoring average jumps to 118.2 PPG here in Charlotte. As for Golden State, who has played only three road games so far, they should have no difficulty scoring on what is the league’s 30th ranked scoring defense (116.0 PPG allowed). As a reminder, there are only 30 teams in the league. 10* Over Warriors/Hornets |
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11-14-21 | Spurs +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (3:30 ET): The Spurs are a better team than the Lakers right now, even though they have an inferior WL record. Though 4-8 SU, San Antonio has actually scored more points than what they’ve allowed this season. The Lakers, despite a winning SU record (7-6) can’t say that. They have a -2.3 PPG differential. Something else the Lakers can’t say (right now) is that they have a healthy LeBron James. Friday night saw them lose to the T’wolves by 24 points here at home. San Antonio is also off a loss as they fell to Dallas by a score of 123-109. The loss dropped them to 0-4 SU off a win this season. They’ve also failed to cover the spread each of the last three times they’ve been off a win. But when off a loss, as they are here, the Spurs tend to play better. They’re a 5-0 ATS off their previous five losses and this includes a 136-117 win over OKC earlier this week. The Spurs had 16 fewer field goal attempts than the Mavs on Friday. That kind of discrepancy should not exist in this afternoon’s game. The Lakers dropped to 3-4 SU without James with Friday’s loss to Minnesota. They were outscored 40-12 in a decisive third quarter. This is a situation where it looks like the public is lining up to bet the favorite, but the lack of line movement is notable. San Antonio has been the better of these two teams on a per possession basis this year. The Spurs also have revenge for a four-point loss at home last month. The road team has won outright the L4 times these teams have met. Take the points. 8* San Antonio |
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11-12-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): Well, I guess I’m chasing the Hawks, who are 0-5 ATS in their last five games (also 0-5 SU) and a mind-numbing 0-8 ATS on the road this season. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Conference Finals last season. The road-heavy schedule to start the season seems to have taken a toll, but I remain a believer that the Hawks can bounce back tonight in Denver. Four of the Nuggets’ last six games have been decided by three points or less and they’ve been fortunate to win three of those. Now I took the Hawks plus the points in each of their two previous games. Those plays obviously failed to come through as they lost to Utah and Golden State by a combined 26 points. With the benefit of hindsight, I was probably being a bit stubborn in thinking Atlanta would keep up with the two best teams in the NBA right now. This road trip started with a four-point loss in Phoenix, so the Hawks have had to play four of the West’s top teams. But of the four, Denver might be the weakest. The Nuggets are averaging only 101.8 PPG thus far. They did just win, 101-98 against Indiana, without Nikola Jokic (who was suspended). Jokic will be back tonight, but Michael Porter Jr is expected to miss a third straight game due to a sore back. I don’t think Denver can count on another career-night from Zeke Nnaji, who scored 19 against the Pacers. Atlanta could be getting back both Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter tonight. That would be a boost. But the bottom line is that I just can’t see the Hawks failing to cover ANOTHER road game. Take the points here as Denver has only covered one of the last six times it has been favored. 10* Atlanta |
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11-10-21 | Wolves +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (10:05 ET): The T’wolves were extremely unfortunate not to cover the spread Monday in Memphis. First off, they led by 16 points in the fourth quarter. After blowing the entirety of that lead, they were still “in the money” (as 4.5-point underdogs) when Karl-Anthony Towns decided to hit a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation to tie the game up. You can guess what came next. Minnesota lost by seven in overtime. Tonight’s assignment in Golden State may look like a tough one for the T’wolves, but I’m banking on them at least being able to cover the spread here. Now I know that the Warriors are 9-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation. (Their only loss came in OT against Memphis). But the Dubs have been feasting on some bad teams recently. While Minnesota’s SU record is only 3-6, they’ve only been outscored by 4.1 PPG. In the last two games, Minnesota has held leads of 20 and 16 points, yet is somehow 0-2 ATS. Steph Curry had 50 points in Golden State’s last game, a performance he isn’t about to duplicate here. Interestingly enough, the Warriors were outscored in three of the four quarters by Atlanta. They had one big quarter (third) where they outscored the Hawks 41-20. That doesn’t seem sustainable to me? 10* Minnesota |
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11-10-21 | Hornets +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (8:05 ET): The Hornets are 0-5 SU/ATS in November and just 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine games overall. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip that has seen them lose three times by double digits. But after only losing by three (in overtime) at the Lakers the other night, Charlotte should finally break through here. Memphis is also off an overtime game, although they were victorious, 125-118 over Minnesota. The Grizzlies were very lucky to win that game, let alone cover the point spread. They trailed by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. Had the Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns not made a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation, then the Grizz would NOT have covered the 4.5-point spread. But thanks to the extra five minutes they did and anyone who laid the points in that game should have felt very lucky to cash a winning ticket. That win over the T’wolves was just the third game Memphis was favored to win all season. It was the first time they covered as favorites since the season opener vs. Cleveland. Prior to defeating the T’wolves, the Grizzlies had lost 115-87 at Washington. In addition to the OT win on Monday, they have two other wins this season by three points or less. I think the Grizz are a good team to fade as chalk right now, especially with Charlotte being so desperate for a win. 8* Charlotte |
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11-09-21 | Blazers +3 v. Clippers | Top | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): This is an early season rubber match between the Trail Blazers & Clippers. These teams have taken turns beating each other, each winning on their own floor in blowout fashion. First it was the Clippers prevailing 116-86 here at Staples Center. Then it was the Blazers turn to return the favor with a 111-92 win several days later. I had the Blazers in that rematch and will go with them again here, plus the points. I know they are 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, but coming off B2B wins at home, I think they’re ready to end that particular losing streak. Portland has been favored in every game but one so far. That one exception was the previous game here vs. the Clippers. So unless they’ve been facing the Clips on the road, the Blazers have been favored every time out. That makes their 5-5 SU overall record seem like a disappointment. But, as alluded to above, things have begun to take a turn for the better. Damian Lillard made 6 of 15 3PA in Saturday’s 105-90 win over the Lakers. That game was a blowout most of the way with the Blazers leading by 30+ in the third quarter. That followed a win, 110-106 over Indiana, where *I* cashed them. The Clippers have won four in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. But they’ve been beating up on bad teams. Two of the wins were against Minnesota, another vs. Oklahoma City and then Sunday required a 22-0 run in the 4Q to beat Charlotte. I’m still not really sold on the Clips without Kawhi Leonard. They’re a middle of the pack team in the West until he returns. Take the points here. 8* Portland |
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11-09-21 | Hawks +8 v. Jazz | Top | 98-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): For a half, it sure looked like the Hawks were the right side last night against the Warriors. I took them, plus the points, and they led Golden State 65-61 at the break. Early in the 2Q, they were up by as many as 11. But then the third quarter and Steph Curry happened. Atlanta was outscored 41-20 in the 3Q and Curry finished the game with 50 points and 10 assists. The Hawks lost 127-113. They are now a shocking 0-7 ATS on the road this season. Things will not get any easier for the Hawks tonight as they must visit Utah to play the Jazz, who are the only team that I have rated higher than Golden State in my power rankings. This is a game Atlanta desperately needs as not only are they 0-7 ATS on the road this season; they’ve also lost six of seven overall straight up, including four straight. I’m going to take the points again, feeling this team is simply better than what it has shown recently. Remember they were in the Eastern Conference Finals just a few months ago. This is the second meeting in a week between the Hawks and Jazz. Utah took the first one, in Atlanta, 116-98. The Hawks were actually slight favorites for that game. As rough as things have been recently, there looks to be value on them plus the points in the rematch. Utah has lost its last two games, the last one coming in Orlando where they were 11-point favorites. 10* Atlanta |
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11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (10:05 ET): The Hawks are 0-6 ATS on the road so far. That’s the most losses without a single cover in the league. Portland (0-4 ATS) is the only other team yet to cover a spread on the road. While it’s a short number they’re getting tonight, and they’re up against a hot Golden State team, look for Atlanta to end its six-game ATS road losing streak. Key here is that the Warriors had to play last night. This is the first time all season that the Dubs find themselves in the second night of a back to back. Take the points. Golden State did prevail on Sunday, winning 120-107 over lowly Houston. It was not only the fourth straight SU win for the Dubs, but also their fourth straight cover. All four wins have come by double digits. The team is now 8-1 SU on the year and the one loss came in overtime (to Memphis). Last night also marked the first Warriors’ game to go Over since the season opening win against the Lakers. But as good as the Dubs have been of late, I simply view this as a “bad spot.” Any team can have an “off-night.” Sure enough, the Warriors are 8-14 ATS the previous two seasons when playing without rest. It should be noted that the Hawks came VERY close to covering the other night in Phoenix, only to lose by four as 3.5 point underdogs. For the record, I cashed the Over in that game. The Hawks actually led by double digits going into the fourth quarter. Losers of three in a row, this team will be desperate for a win Monday night. Remember they were in the Conference Finals last summer. Look for the dog to take advantage of a tired favorite. 10* Atlanta |
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11-07-21 | Hornets v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have won three in a row, the last two both coming against Minnesota, to square their record away at 4-4 SU for the season. Remember that they are without Kawhi Leonard (and others!), which really leaves the scoring burden on Paul George (27.9 PPG). Now it’s obviously helped that the team is allowing an average of just 98 PPG during its current win streak. The Clips actually had to rally back from down 20 against the T’wolves on Friday, so there was a 40-point swing that took place in that game! Charlotte is not doing a good job defensively so far. They are giving up the most points per game in the league (117.4) and just allowed Sacramento to hit a franchise-record 22 three-pointers on Friday. That game got ugly in a hurry and the Hornets ended up losing by 30, 140-110. I’m expecting a better effort on the defensive end here. I mean, how could it be any worse? It was the second time this season that the Hornets allowed 140 in a game. The other was an overtime loss to Boston. I have to mention that other than those two games where they allowed 140, the Hornets have not allowed more than 114 in any of the other L9 games. I’ll be taking the Under in this one. I just don’t think the Clippers, even with Reggie Jackson shooting well these last three games, have much scoring punch behind George. Charlotte is due to defend the three-point arc better here than they did on Friday. The Clippers don’t shoot the ball particularly well from three-point range, especially at home where they’re just 30%. But they do defend the three-point line well, keeping teams to just 28.5% here at the Staples Center. The Under is 6-2 in all Clippers games so far. 10* Under Hornets/Clippers |
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11-06-21 | Hawks v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): Two teams that made surprisingly deep playoff runs last summer will collide tonight in Phoenix. Atlanta made just its second EVER appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, losing to eventual champion Milwaukee in six games. Of course, Phoenix’s season also came to an end at the hands of the Bucks, but that was in the NBA Finals (just the second time in their history that the Suns made it that far). At the start of 2021-22, it’s been a bit of a rocky start for both (needless to say what’s going on OFF the court in PHX). But I expect tonight’s game to have some fireworks. The Hawks are just 4-5 SU and coming off an ugly 116-98 loss at home to Utah where they shot just 25% from three point range. I’m aware of the Hawks’ 0-5 ATS road record, but expect them to shoot the ball better tonight. Trae Young was not only just 8 for 20 overall against the Jazz, but he didn’t make a single three (0 for 4). Like a lot of teams right now, Atlanta is struggling to make shots (especially on the road), but I don’t expect that to continue. They are 25th in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to shoot over 49% the L5 games. Suns’ owner Robert Sarver is currently being investigated by the league for a variety of misconduct, so that’s going to be a distraction. But on the court, the team is 4-3 SU and has won three straight - all here at home. Those three wins have been by an average of 11 PPG, however take note of the fact they came against Cleveland, New Orleans and Houston. Thursday night saw the Suns score a season-high 123 points and they didn’t even shoot that great. The previous four Atlanta-Phoenix matchups have all gone Over with a minimum of 227 total points being scored. 10* Over Hawks/Suns |
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11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): Can the Blazers really lose four straight times as favorites? I hope not, because I’m laying the points with them Friday night at home vs. the Pacers. Now I haven’t forgotten how Portland failed to come through for me in their last game. That was a 107-104 loss at Cleveland. The defensive effort was simply not up to par as the Blazers allowed the Cavs to shoot 52.7% from the field, including 15 of 30 on three-point attempts. But one reason I believe today can (and will) be different is that the Blazers are back home where they’re 3-1 SU so far this season. (They are 0-4 on the road). Not long ago, Indiana was a team that I championed to turn things around. It was Monday when I took them and they covered the spread for me in a 131-118 win over San Antonio. They followed that by beating the Knicks on Wednesday, 111-98. Prior to the B2B wins, the Pacers were just 1-6 SU overall and looked like one of the real “disappointments” in the Eastern Conference. But now they have to go and do something they have yet to do all season and that’s win on the road. So far the team is 0-4 SU away from home and giving up an average of 120.2 points in those four contests. Portland has averaged 120.5 PPG at home so far. In my analysis for their game vs. Cleveland, I talked about how it’s only a matter of time until Damian Lillard gets on track. Lillard did go for a team-high 26 points against the Cavs, but that was on 10 of 27 shooting (3 of 12 from 3PT range). I trust that he and his teammates will shoot better tonight now that they’re back home. The Blazers have been favored in all but one game so far, so their 3-5 SU record is a major disappointment. They’ll win and cover tonight. 10* Portland |
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11-05-21 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (10:05 ET): I think it’s safe to say that Golden State is off to a pretty great start to the season. They will never again ascend to the heights of those championship teams from several years back, but they’ve definitely been the second best team in the Western Conference (behind Utah) thus far. The Warriors are 6-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation (lone loss was by three, to Memphis, in overtime). Since suffering that one loss, they’ve put together a couple commanding victories over Oklahoma City and Charlotte, beating those two teams by 21 and 22 points respectively. New Orleans is NOT off to a good start. They are 1-8, which has them dead last in the Western Conference. Zion Williamson has not played and will probably be out for two more weeks. But at least Brandon Ingram appears ready to return tonight. Ingram has missed the Pelicans’ last three games, all of which have been losses, the last two coming by a combined 25 points at Phoenix and Sacramento. Before those three games, the Pelicans had been competitive, losing to the Hawks and Kings by a combined seven points. Playing on national television, the Pelicans certainly won’t want to be embarrassed tonight. So look for a solid effort in this Friday night ESPN matchup. They are due to start shooting the ball better while at the same time the defense can only improve (last four opponents have all shot 50% or better). Golden State held its previous two opponents to 36% from the field, which is hard to do. The Dubs figure to be a popular play tonight, but I think it’s a great spot to be a “contrarian.” Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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11-04-21 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 215 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
8* Over Celtics/Heat (8:05 ET): Reports indicate that there was an “emotional” players-only meeting in the Boston locker room ahead of last night’s 92-79 win over Orlando. The Celtics have certainly been an early season “disappointment” as they are still only 3-5 SU even after Wednesday’s victory. Marcus Smart went public in his criticism of teammates Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, leading to the closed door meeting. I guess it worked, at least for a night, but the team better be on the same page for Thursday’s game as they visit Miami to take on what has been a red hot Heat team. Miami has started the year 6-1 SU and outscored opponents by a league-high 16.7 points per game. Their only loss came in the second game of the season, 102-91 at Indiana. All six victories have been by double digits, the closest margin being 13 points! It’s tough to imagine them being able to play any better than they have thus far, especially at the defensive end where they are tops in the NBA in both points allowed and efficiency. They are one of just two teams to be holding their opponents below 100 PPG thus far. I do not see that continuing. But while I expect the Heat defense to regress a bit, look for their three-point shooting to pick up. In three home games, they’ve shot just under 31% from behind the arc. Considering they are at 36.7% from 3PT range for the season, I anticipate a good night from long range here. Miami is no Orlando, whom the Celtics were able to hold to 79 points last night on 32.1% shooting. Boston actually ranks 26th in the league in defensive efficiency so far. But they (meaning the Celtics) should also shoot better than they did last night. 8* Over Celtics/Heat |
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11-03-21 | Hornets v. Warriors OVER 225 | Top | 92-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
8* Over Hornets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Golden State has stayed Under in all of its last five games. My guess is that they could care less as they’ve ascended back to the top of the Western Conference, a place they were accustomed to before nose diving the L2 seasons. The Dubs have yet to be beaten in regulation this season as their only loss came in OT to Memphis, 104-101, last Thursday. (It just so happens. At 5-1, they are just a half-game back of Utah entering Wednesday for 1st place in the West. Charlotte started its season 3-0, but has since dropped three of five. They very nearly erased a big 4Q deficit against Cleveland at home on Monday, but still came up three points short in a 113-110 loss. The Hornets were down 17 with just seven minutes to go and it’s worth pointing out that they’ve trailed by double digits in all but one game this season. Turnovers were the problem vs. Cleveland, at least in the first half, They also didn’t shoot the ball particularly well through the first three quarters. The good news here (for the Hornets) is that they come in leading the NBA in 3-point FG% (41.1). The Warriors are no slouch in that department either as they are making 38.1% of their attempts from behind the arc (40.7 at home). So I’m anticipating a good old fashioned “shootout” tonight in San Francisco and for that Golden State Under streak to come to an end. Six of Charlotte’s eight games have gone Over. The Warriors, who have not played since Saturday, are 4-0 Over the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. 8* Over Hornets/Warriors |
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11-03-21 | Blazers -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Portland (7:05 ET): Here, you’ve got two teams whose records somewhat defy the odds. Portland has been favored in all but one game so far. They are just 3-4 straight up. Cleveland has been an underdog in ALL of its games, yet is 4-4 SU. I just can’t see the Blazers losing for a third straight time as chalk nor do I see the Cavs continuing this surprising early season run. So lay the short number with the road team. Portland is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road. Tonight will be their third road game in four nights. As I alluded to earlier, the Blazers went off as the betting favorite in each of the previous two contests. Their last game was a 113-103 loss to a Philadelphia team that was playing without Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and Danny Green. It was a bad loss, plain and simple. Right now, it would be very easy to “point the finger” at Damian Lillard, who is averaging career-lows in points, FG% and 3PT FG%. Lillard went 7 for 20 overall (2 for 9 from behind the arc) against the Sixers. I believe it’s only a matter of time before he - and the team - gets back on track. Look for it to start tonight in Cleveland. The Cavs are coming off a five-game road trip (that was mostly out West) and saw them pull three outright upsets. The latest upset win came Monday in Charlotte when they won 113-110. They blew a big lead in the fourth quarter of that game. Important to note is that in three of the Cavs’ four wins, the opponent has failed to score 100 points. Yet it’s not as if the Cavs have some great defensive efficiency rating. I just believe Portland, specifically Lillard, is due to get back on track here and I’m not a buyer on the Cavs’ start. 10* Portland |
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11-02-21 | Kings +9 v. Jazz | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (9:05 ET): As one would expect, the Kings have not had much success against the Jazz these last few seasons. They are just 1-8 - straight up and against the spread - the last nine meetings. The one SU win came by a single point as 4.5 point dogs very early in the 2019-20 season. All eight losses have come by at least nine points and quite frankly the average margin is pretty huge. But I’m here to tell you that you shouldn't be surprised when the visitors (Sacramento) make this close a game on Tuesday night. Utah, as they were expected to be, is one of top teams in the Western Conference so far. They are 5-1 SU with a conference leading +12.9 per game point differential. But I successfully faded them in their lone loss, which came on Saturday in Chicago, 107-99 as 3.5-point favorites to the Bulls. They immediately followed that with perhaps their signature win of the season, 107-95 over defending NBA Champion Milwaukee as five-point home favorites. The Bucks shot very poorly in that game. The Kings have already lost to the Jazz once this season. It was a 110-101 game in Sacramento back on October 22nd. But the Kings come into this game with a 3-3 SU record. Now all three wins have been close (decided by four points or less), however all three were also on the road! I fully anticipate that the Kings will shoot the ball better from three-point range here than they did vs. Dallas Sunday (just 19.4%). They finished with a season-low in points and their top two scorers (Barnes, Fox) finished a combined 10 of 32. Take the points. 8* Sacramento |
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11-01-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): When Nikola Jokic went down with what looked to be a serious knee injury last Tuesday, there was some serious concern that the reigning league MVP would be out for an extended period of time. But Jokic ended up not even missing a game and has since led his Nuggets to B2B wins. The first was a blowout over Dallas at home and then the Nuggets eked out a 93-91 win at Minnesota on Saturday. But this being their third game in four nights, and on the road, I think it’s a bad spot for them. Memphis has fallen to 3-3 SU on the season after dropping three of their last four games. They played their worst game of the season on Saturday night, here at home vs. Miami. The Grizzlies lost 129-103 in a game they were favored to win by two points. They shot just 38.6% from the field. But the big problem was allowing the Heat to hit 21 three-pointers. The Grizz were down 16 at the end of the first quarter and never really got close after that. Needless to say, you should expect a much better effort tonight. Memphis isn’t just looking to bounce back from a bad loss, they also are playing with triple revenge tonight. They lost all three matchups with Denver last year. But take note two of those losses were decided by a total of three points. What’s interesting about this matchup is that the Grizzlies have been far better at the offensive end than Denver this year, but much worse defensively. I just can’t see the Grizz dropping B2B games as a home favorite nor can I see the Nuggets winning B2B games as a road underdog. 10* Memphis |
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11-01-21 | Spurs v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers are off to a dismal start at 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) is hurt and listed as questionable for tonight. In addition to that, Caris LeVert (who played for the first time in Saturday’s 97-94 loss to Toronto) is on a minutes restriction as he continues to work his way back from offseason back surgery. But I see the wounded Pacers picking up a win tonight over a San Antonio team that’s off a big upset and unlikely to win two straight on the road. Lay the short number here. The Spurs are 2-4 SU. They’ve actually covered the number in the first two games of this three-game trip, first losing in Dallas by only five points (were 7-point dogs) and then shocking Milwaukee 102-93 on Saturday, once again as a seven-point dog. Coming off a win over the NBA Champs means a “letdown” is likely in order for Greg Popovich’s team on Monday. This isn’t “your older brothers Spurs” by any stretch of the imagination. Coming into tonight, I’ve got them in the bottom seven of my own personal power ratings. Indiana isn’t much higher than San Antonio in the ratings, but I do have the ahead by a couple points. So with the home court advantage tonight, the Pacers seem like a logical play. I know that the injuries are a concern, but this is a team that could have a much better record right now. Three of their losses have been by three points or less, including two by exactly one point (first two games). The Spurs benefited from the Bucks shooting VERY poorly on Saturday night. Off B2B sub-100 point efforts, I think the Pacers are set to break out at the offensive end tonight. 8* Indiana |
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10-30-21 | Jazz v. Bulls +4 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The Bulls suffered their first loss of the season on Thursday and I was happy to see it. No disrespect to those in the Windy City, I just happened to be on the team they were playing (Knicks) and it was my *10* Game of the Month. It was a tight game with the Knicks (who were slight underdogs) ultimately prevailing 104-103. Unfortunately for the Bulls, the news didn’t get any better on Friday when it was learned that forward Patrick Williams would be out for the remainder of the regular season due to a fractured wrist. That’s a literal “ouch” for a team that had gotten off to a 4-0 start. Chicago’s opponent on Saturday is Utah and the Jazz have also started 4-0 SU. That’s less surprising than the Bulls’ 4-0 start as the Jazz were universally projected to be one of the top teams in the West this season. Thus far, they’ve overwhelmed some pretty bad teams, beating Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Denver and Houston by an average of 18.2 points per game. Only one of those previous opponents (Denver) made the playoffs last season. I said going into that aforementioned Knicks-Bulls game that I wasn’t surprised Chicago was undefeated (based on who they’d played). I say the same for the Jazz here. Despite being off a loss and the Williams’ injury, I’m taking the Bulls plus the points in this one. Utah is the only unbeaten team left in the league - whether you are talking straight up or against the spread. It’s just a matter of time before a loss is hung on them in both regards. With Chicago’s only loss this season coming by a single point, I think they are the team that will - at the very least - be the first to cover against the Jazz this year. When Utah faced Denver earlier in the week, they had three days off to get ready. This is their second road game in three days. Take the points. 10* Chicago |
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10-29-21 | Pacers v. Nets OVER 222 | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Pacers/Nets (7:35 ET): All five Brooklyn games have stayed Under the total this year. That's certainly not what you'd expect from a team that led the NBA in scoring a season ago. I look for the trend to get snapped tonight when the Nets host Indiana. The L3 games have seen Brooklyn shoot just 43.7%, 42.6% and 38.8% from the field. The percentages from three-point range are obviously even lower, down around 28% overall during the three-game stretch. Again, this is simply not what you expect from this team. Kyrie Irving remains out, but with Kevin Durant and James Harden, the Nets should be scoring more. Harden has struggled as he continues to work his way back from the hamstring injury that he suffered in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He’s averaging just 16.6 PPG, very “un-Harden like.” I think it’s only a matter of time before he and the Nets get on track offensively. How about tonight? They’ve yet to score more than 114 points in a game this season. Last year, they averaged 118.6 PPG. As for Indiana, they too have underperformed of late. At 1-4, they’re off to their worst start in six seasons. That includes an 0-3 record on the road after losing 118-100 to Toronto on Wednesday. After scoring 122 and 134 points in the first two games, the Pacers have averaged just 103.6 PPG the last three. They should easily top that number this evening and shoot better than either of Brooklyn’s last two opponents did. Domantas Sabonis, a 21.6 points per game scorer, attempted just four shots in Toronto. Look for a big bounce back game from him tonight. 10* Over Pacers/Nets |
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10-28-21 | Knicks +2 v. Bulls | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): One of the big early season winners looks to be Chicago, who is 4-0 for the first time since the halcyon days of Air Jordan. But let’s “pump the breaks” just a little bit as the Bulls have beaten the lowly Pistons twice as well as the Pelicans and Raptors. It was a three-point win in Toronto, which was enough to cover the spread (Bulls were -2) there, and it’s another short spread tonight for a team that’s not just 4-0 SU but also 4-0 ATS. However, this is where I think the streak comes to an end. The Knicks are off to a 3-1 SU start (also 3-1 ATS), their lone loss coming at home to Orlando of all teams. I happened to fade NY in that one defeat. But give them credit for bouncing back Tuesday night against Philadelphia for an emphatic 112-99 win. That ended a 15-game losing streak to the 76ers, so the win was more significant than normal. The key here is that the Knicks are averaging 118.8 PPG so far. While Chicago is allowing just 97.5 PPG, again, look at who they’ve played. The Bulls did lead the Raptors by as many as 20 points Tuesday, so the final score was somewhat misleading. However, I still am confident that their 4-0 SU/ATS run comes to an end tonight. Before the win over Toronto, the Bulls were 0-4 SU/ATS the previous two seasons when coming off three consecutive SU wins. So this is very much “uncharted territory” for them. The Knicks, a playoff team last year, are still the more “reliable” commodity and a deeper team. 10* New York |
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10-27-21 | Cavs +8 v. Clippers | Top | 92-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (10:35 ET): The Cavaliers are competing for HC Bernie Bickerstaff as they’ve pulled B2B upsets, beating Atlanta and Denver. They beat the spread by a combined 35 points in those two wins, yet are still pretty sizable underdogs for tonight’s visit to the Clippers. This Los Angeles team, which is without Kawhi Leonard and several other key players (all injured), just picked up its first win of the season Monday when they crushed Portland 116-86 here at home. But I don’t think we’ll see anything close to a repeat of that performance here tonight. In addition to Leonard being out indefinitely, the Clips have yet to get any minutes this season from Serge Ibaka or Jason Preston. Marcus Morris is also questionable with a knee injury after missing the Portland game. Paul George has picked up the slack by averaging 28.7 PPG, but I don’t think the team can count on Luke Kennard shooting as well as he did on Monday when he matched a career-high with six three-pointers. Nor can LA count on Cleveland shooting as poorly as Portland did that day. The Blazers went 8 for 37 from behind the arc in that game. The Cavs pulled their two upsets thanks to some solid play on the defensive end. They held both the Hawks and Nuggets under 100 points. At the offensive end, the Cavs have had a different leading scorer in all four games. Is this a great team or even one that will make the playoffs? Probably not. But they’ve shown they’ve got the “goods” to at least stick within the number against a Clippers team that isn’t as good as it’s been in years’ past. Take the points in this one. 10* Cleveland |
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10-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2 | Top | 96-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): The Trail Blazers are coming off an embarrassing 30-point loss at the Clippers Monday night. Even though it’s still early in the season, they can ill-afford anything close to a repeat of that performance as they host Memphis tonight on ESPN. The Blazers have dropped two of three so far, but did blow out the reigning Western Conference Champs (Phoenix) here at home over the weekend. I don’t think it’s asking too much for them to bounce back and win at home. Memphis 2-1 SU and has covered the spread in every game. They are coming off their first loss of the season, 121-118 to the Lakers on Sunday. Though the Grizzlies have been off for two days, this marks their third consecutive road game and they are also in Golden State tomorrow night. Ja Morant has been excellent, averaging 35 points and eight assists per game. But can he keep up THOSE kind of numbers? Probably not. Note that the Grizz have been behind at halftime each of the last two games. I’m expecting a big bounce back game from Damian Lillard tonight after he missed all eight three-point attempts against the Clippers. Also, Portland turned the ball over 30 times in that game. Lillard has had a cold start to the season, shooting just 36 percent and averaging 17.0 PPG. My guess is he’s going to be highly motivated going against Morant. The Blazers are traditionally a strong home team and seeing them lay such a short number, I can’t help but think we’re getting a “discount” in this one. 8* Portland |
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10-26-21 | Warriors v. Thunder +9.5 | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): As we all anticipated, it’s been a rough start to the season for OKC. The Thunder are 0-3 - both SU and ATS - and every loss has been by 12 points or more. But, even by their low standard, a fourth straight double digit loss to start the season seems unlikely. You just don’t see that very often. So I’ll call for a “circle the wagons” type performance tonight at home and take the points. Golden State is 3-0 SU and covered the spread in two of the wins. I took them on Opening Night when they “upset” the Lakers 121-114 as 3.5 point dogs. From there, they’ve since defeated the Clippers 115-103 and the Kings 119-107. In both instances, the Warriors were three-point favorites. Now they face their largest spread of the season. Oddsmakers are calling for a margin of victory that they’ve achieved only once thus far. The Warriors did defeat the Kings by 12 points on Sunday, but that was a game where they led by only two going into the fourth quarter. Steph Curry has been a bit inconsistent, scoring 45 points in the win against the Clippers but making just 6 of 23 three-point attempts in the other two games. The way I look at things, it’s very hard for a team to go four straight games without being competitive. The Thunder have shot 40.6% overall and 26.6% from three in the first three games. Those numbers are bound to improve and I believe they will tonight. 10* Oklahoma City |
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10-25-21 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Playing without Zion Williamson (out indefinitely with a foot injury), the Pelicans are off to an 0-3 SU start. But despite a horrid shooting night on Saturday, they still managed to cover the spread here in Minnesota. They shot 34.8% from the field and were 9 of 40 from three-point range in the 96-89 loss to the T’wolves. Not to mention they turned the ball over a franchise record 30 times! But New Orleans was a 7.5-point dog in that one, so they left with the cash. I anticipate the same thing will happen tonight. Take the points. While it was just a half-point cover on Saturday, you’ve got to figure the Pelicans are going to shoot the ball better this evening. Devonte Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were the primary offenders, combining to shoot a horrendous 3 of 23 from three-point range. You’ve got to figure that duo will be much better tonight AND the number of turnovers will be cut down significantly. In the Pelicans’ previous game, Graham and Alexander-Walker were 9 of 17 from behind the arc. Because they are still winless, expect New Orleans to come out “hungry” on Monday. They did not get off to a good start to Saturday’s game, which was the second night of a back to back for them. Minnesota is 2-0 SU with the other win coming against a rebuilding Houston team. It’s fairly shocking to see the T’wolves favored in the first three games of the season. I don’t think they’re a very good basketball team and the defensive numbers we’ve seen so far will not be sustained. 10* New Orleans |
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10-25-21 | Pistons v. Hawks OVER 212.5 | Top | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
8* Over Pistons/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta’s first two opponents combined to shoot just 37.4% overall and 28.2% from three. You’ve got to figure that won’t hold up. Also, they only scored 95 points themselves in a surprising loss to Cleveland on Saturday night. A return home should lead to noticeable uptick in scoring. In the first game, the Hawks scored 113 points and easily defeated the Dallas Mavericks. They are big favorites here over the Pistons and I expect this game to go well Over the total. Detroit has played two low-scoring games thus far, both against Chicago. Neither time were the Pistons able to break 90 points. That’s just sad. The first game vs. the Bulls saw them shoot 40% and score 88 points. A visit to the Windy City saw declines down to 38.6% shooting and 82 points. Through two games, the Pistons are a horrible 19.6% from three-point range. These numbers can only improve and I think they will tonight - substantially - as the Hawks were already set to regress defensively from the first two games. With these teams combining to go 4-0 Under thus far, it’s no shock that the total is low. But it’s too low. Atlanta averaged 113.7 PPG at home last season. They were right at that number in the season opener vs. Dallas. If they were to again finish near that average (very reasonable assumption) then all we’d need is 100 points from the Pistons. Again, that sounds reasonable. Trae Young did not shoot well against Cleveland nor the last time he faced Detroit. That’s about to change. The Over is 10-1 the L11 meetings between these teams in Atlanta. 8* Over Pistons/Hawks |
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10-24-21 | Magic +12 v. Knicks | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): A young Magic team that doesn’t have a single starter over the age of 23 has gotten off to an 0-2 start. Both losses have been blowouts. First, they fell by 26 to the Spurs. Then it was by 25 to the team they’ll face again Sunday, the Knicks. Against San Antonio, Orlando was at least competitive for most of the first half. The same cannot be said for Friday’s game with the Knicks where many fans in their own building were cheering for the road team. But I expect this one to be closer. Take the points. New York set a team record for most made threes in a game with 24 on Friday. That is not going to be replicated. The Knicks went to double overtime in their first game, winning a wild one, 138-134 over Boston. So they are 2-0 for the first time since 2012. Do I expect them to win this game? Yes. But covering a double digit spread is a different matter. The line closed at -8 for Friday’s game with the Magic. Now the linesmakers obviously had to account for the change in home court advantage as well as the final margin from Friday. But this looks like a classic overreaction. Orlando isn’t going to have a great year, but they will be desperate to avoid a third straight double digit loss to open the season. The Knicks are a team I expect to regress a bit this year as they can’t count on holding opponents to the lowest 3PT FG% in the league again like they did last season. 8* Orlando |
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10-22-21 | Raptors +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Boston lost a tough one on Wednesday, dropping their first game in OT to the Knicks by a score of 138-134. Jaylen Brown, despite spending the majority of the previous 10 days in quarantine (COVID-19), scored 46 points for the Celtics. But obviously those went to waste. Jayson Tatum did not shoot the ball well at all, going 7 for 30 from the field including 2 of 15 from three-point range. The Celtics now turn around and host another division rival, that being Toronto. I think the spread is too high here. The Raptors also lost their first game, albeit in much lower-scoring fashion compared to the Celtics. They went down 98-83 at home to the Wizards. As you can tell from the score, it was not a banner shooting night from the NBA’s Canadian contingent. They made only 30.9% of their field goal attempts and were a dreadful 7 of 34 from three-point range. You have to figure - even with leading scorer Pascal Siakam sidelined - that we will see better shooting tonight. Even with Siakam hurt and Kyle Lowry traded in the offseason, I think there's a case that Toronto will be better than it was last season. Despite going 27-45 SU in 2020-21, the Raptors were only outscored by 0.4 PPG. They were essentially playing to the level of a .500 team before the bottom dropped out at the end of the season and they lost their last seven games (injuries). This is a revenge game for them after being swept in LY’s season series. I look for this to be a close game that comes down to the wire. 9* Toronto |
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10-21-21 | Bucks -2 v. Heat | Top | 95-137 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks began the defense of their NBA Championship with a convincing 127-104 victory over Brooklyn on Opening Night. What was so impressive about that is they won by 23 despite the Nets shooting 53.1% from three-point range! And it’s not like the Bucks were exactly “on fire” from behind the arc; they made just 17 of 45 attempts. But they had 21 more FG attempts than Brooklyn did and Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 32-14-7 and shot 12/25 from the floor. This is Miami’s season opener. They come into 2021-22 with some new faces, most notably Kyle Lowry, who they obtained in trade with Toronto. He joins Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo as the three cornerstones of the team. The Heat are hoping Lowry helps them move up the Eastern Conference standings after a sixth place finish last year. But this is a tough first game against the team that swept them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Three of those four games were decided by double digits. I don’t think the Heat are THAT much better now than they were in May. The Heat did not have a particularly impressive net efficiency rating or point differential last season. They very much were a slightly above average team. The Bucks had the East’s best point differential and obviously went on to win the whole thing. Seeing as the better team already has a game under its belt, I consider that to be a pretty significant advantage for Thursday night’s game. The Bucks are likely to shoot better here than they did on Tuesday, which is a frightening proposition for Miami. 10* Milwaukee |
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10-20-21 | Pacers v. Hornets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 122-123 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
10* Under Pacers/Hornets (7:05 ET): Two Eastern Conference teams that I expect to end up fighting for play-in spots come playoff time are Indiana and Charlotte. That shouldn’t be considered a very “hot” take. After all, both these teams found themselves in the play-in round last year. Neither made it out with the Hornets losing to the Pacers 144-117 to end their season. Then Indiana could not get by Washington, losing 142-115, which ended their season. It should be a much lower-scoring game to start the season this year. Take the Under on Wednesday. Indiana has finished between fourth and ninth place in the Eastern Conference each of the last six seasons. That’s a nice run of consistency, but they’ve never advanced past the first round of the playoffs during that time. The hope is that new HC Rick Carlisle can take them past mediocrity. He’s got some good pieces with Sabonis, Turner, Brogdon, LeVert and Warren forming a solid starting five. There’s not much depth though. What Carlisle needs to work on - and probably will - is the defense. The Pacers gave up 115.7 PPG, the same number they averaged themselves. That led to the highest Over percentage in the league. I expect more Unders in 2021-22. Compared to Indiana, Charlotte games were much lower-scoring last season. The Hornets only averaged 109.6 PPG, which put them in the bottom third of the league. Defensively, the key to their success is playing more zone than every other team. The zone clearly bothers opponents. It should bother Indiana, who will be without Warren and LeVert. But I worry about the Hornets offensively as their leading scorer last year was Terry Rozier. We saw what happened LY in the play-in game when the threes weren’t falling. The Under is 13-3 their L16 games as a home favorite. 10* Under Pacers/Hornets |
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10-19-21 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Warriors’ 2020-21 season came to an end in the play-in round and the Lakers were partly responsible for that. The league’s very first play-in game saw these teams match up and it was LA winning 103-100 on a last second LeBron James’ three-pointer. Golden State would get a second chance to advance to the playoffs, but also lost that one, 117-112 to Memphis (in overtime). Still, last season was an improvement for the Dubs after plummeting to the worst record in the league two years ago. Meanwhile, there was only one way to go for the Lakers after winning the NBA Championship in 2020. As is obvious by the fact they were in the play-in round, LA regressed heavily last season. Only three players are back from LY’s team, two of them being LeBron James and Anthony Davis. So I would not count on a fast start from “Showtime” in 2021-22. LeBron is now 36 years old and has played the second most minutes in NBA history. For what it’s worth, with all the new faces, the Lakers were 0-6 SU in the preseason. Golden State was 5-0 SU in its preseason, two of those wins coming against the Lakers! It is clear that the Warriors are getting back to the mentality that brought them multiple NBA Championships and that mentality involves shooting a lot of threes. We started to see it at the end of last year’s regular season. Steph Curry scored 41 in the final preseason game and with him and Draymond Green on the court at the same time, the Dubs destroyed opponents (provided James Wiseman was also NOT on the court). The revenge angle is big here and I don’t think Russell Westbrook is ready to be a difference maker for the Lakers just yet. Take the points. 8* Golden State |
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10-19-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 104-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* Under Nets/Bucks (7:35 ET): The two top teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire league, square off on Opening Night as the reigning NBA Champion Bucks host the Nets. Entering this season, Brooklyn has the best odds of winning the NBA Finals. But they are also dealing with the issue of Kyrie Irving not being available until he gets vaccinated. They still have the luxury of Kevin Durant and James Harden being on the roster though. Irving and Harden both missing three games in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals had a lot to do with Milwaukee overcoming an 0-2 hole to win that series in seven games. That ECF was much lower-scoring than anticipated, given these were the two highest scoring teams in the league last season. Only one of the seven games went Over the total and that was Game 7, which went to OT. In fact, the Under is 7-1-1 the L9 meetings between these teams including a perfect 5-0 when they play here in Milwaukee. I’m going to say that they go Under again here in the season opener. Neither team figures to be in “peak offensive form” for the first game. Somewhat incredibly, the losing team did not even score 100 points in four of the seven games in LY’s ECF. It may not be THAT low-scoring this time around, but this is a high O/U for the first game and I just can’t see this one reaching it. 10* Under Nets/Bucks |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Suns/Bucks (9:05 ET): The Bucks have valiantly fought back from an 0-2 series deficit to come within one win of their first NBA Championship since 1971. That ‘71 Finals victory happens to be the franchise’s lone NBA Championship. I’ve got to say that I’m happy to see them in this position as they were my call for both Games 4 & 5. Each time they battled back from a significant deficit. It was a nine-point 4Q deficit that they faced in Game 4. The deficit was much larger in Game 5 (16 pts), but that came early and a big 2Q resulted in them leading most of the way. Of course, that was my 10* Game of the Year. With the Bucks having come from behind to win each of the last two games, I’m a little skeptical of laying the points here. Something I said going into Game 5 was that it was pretty surprising Milwaukee won Game 4 considering they were outshot 51.3 to 40.2 percent. I didn’t think the Suns would have such a large edge in FG% again and that proved to be the case even though they actually shot better overall (55.2%) and were 13 of 19 from three-point range. But Milwaukee shot 57.5% overall and was 50% (14 of 28) from three-point range! I can’t possibly see either team matching those kinds of percentages here in Game 6. Thus, I’m taking the Under. This is the highest O/U line we’ve seen so far for this series, which does make sense coming off the highest scoring game of the series. But the teams absolutely will NOT combine to go 27 of 47 from behind the arc again. In Game 4, they were 14 of 52. And shooting a combined 56% overall from the field again is totally out of the question. Outside of Devin Booker, the rest of the Suns have scored just 140 points total in the L2 games. The number of PPG allowed by both teams in this postseason does not exceed 105.5. 10* Under Suns/Bucks |
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07-17-21 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Zig-zag theory be damned, I’m fading Phoenix again in Game 5. While it was a somewhat fortuitous cover on the Bucks in Game 4 (they trailed by as many as nine in the 4Q), the key here is that the surprisingly large edge in FG% that the Suns enjoyed in the last game simply isn’t likely to be present again. They shot 51.3 percent from the floor in Game 4 - while Milwaukee shot just 40.2 percent - and still LOST. Even though they are on the road again, the Bucks shooting is likely to improve here and that makes taking the points seem like the logical option to me. Now Suns’ fans are obviously going to decry the foul trouble that Devin Booker was in throughout Game 4. Booker still ended up scoring 42 points, but spent long stretches on the bench due to the aforementioned foul trouble. Honestly, he should have fouled out of the game with a few minutes left. It’s very likely that Booker ends up not being whistled for as many fouls at home, but I don’t see him going for 40+ points again. The fact no one else on the team contributed more than 15 points in Game 4 should be worrisome to Suns fans. I just don’t see the team shooting as well as it did overall in the last game. Kris Middleton was the Game 4 hero for Milwaukee, who now looks to end an 0-5 SU/ATS streak in Phoenix. Middleton scored 40 Wednesday night, a number that teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo exceeded each of the previous two contests. Right now, I simply have more faith in the Bucks’ top scorers being able to collectively lift the team up (don’t forget Jrue Holiday) compared to their Suns’ counterparts. Milwaukee has to be pleased with the fact they have this series tied despite Phoenix finishing with a higher FG% in every game. Eventually, the Bucks are going to shoot better. I’ll bank on that happening tonight. 10* Milwaukee |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 in the series, the Bucks got the win they desperately needed in Game 3 and did so in emphatic fashion. Leading virtually the entire way, they had no problem covering the 4.5-point spread. It wound up 120-100 with Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring 41 points. The home team is now 3-0 SU/ATS in this series. Phoenix has not lost B2B games since the first round series vs. the Lakers and is 13-3 SU in its L16 games. They are 2-0 ATS off a SU loss during that time. But Milwaukee is very tough at home where they are 34-11 SU for the season with just one loss in the playoffs. I’m laying the points in Game 4. Remember when it was thought that an injured Antetokounmpo might not be a factor in this series? Neither do I. Kidding, but Antetokounmpo is off B2B 40+ point games. He went for 20-17 in Game 1. Clearly, he’s not hobbled by his left knee injury any longer. At home, he can expect help from Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom had good Game 3 performances. That duo combined to go 14 of 28 from the field and 8 of 17 from three-point range. The team averages 119.3 PPG at home. I expect a similar offensive effort to Game 3. Phoenix did not have a strong offensive effort in Game 3. Devin Booker really struggled, going 3 of 14 from the field, including 1 of 7 from three-point range. He finished with only 10 points. Booker figures to better those numbers in Game 4, but I also don’t think the Suns will shoot 48.2% from the floor again like they did Sunday. Milwaukee seems to have a huge edge in the paint and they outscored Phoenix by 15 pts from behind the arc in G3. Look for the home team to win again. 10* Milwaukee |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* Under Suns/Bucks (8:05 ET): The first two games of this year’s NBA Finals both went Over the total as have all four meetings this season between the Suns and Bucks. But Phoenix probably isn’t going to shoot as well in Game 3 now that the series moves to Milwaukee. The Suns were 48.9% overall from the field in Game 2 and made 20 threes. They aren’t going to match this numbers tonight. It definitely felt like Game 2 “should have” stayed Under as there were “only” 200 points scored with 4:10 remaining. But plenty of late free throws helped “seal the deal.” Look for this to be a lower-scoring game. Milwaukee had been 5-0 Under this postseason when trailing in the series. They still are allowing just 105.2 PPG in the playoffs. They’ve played eight games at home and allowed less than 100 in regulation six times. Phoenix has seen two players get hurt in the first two games - Dario Saric and Torrey Craig - so their lack of depth could become a problem. Role players typically don’t do as well on the road, so Mikal Bridges isn’t going to match the 27 points he scored in Game 2 here. Again, the team’s three-point shooting should take a major “hit” compared to what we saw in Game 2. Considering we didn’t even know if he was going to play in this series, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been rather remarkable for the Bucks. He went for 42 in Game 2 after a 20-17 performance in Game 1. I definitely don’t see him duplicating the previous game’s performance. Phoenix has allowed only 102.4 PPG in the playoffs and is right on that exact number the L5 games. The Bucks have only scored 108 and 105. This figures to be the lowest-scoring game of the series so far as the Under is 4-1 the L5 times Phoenix has been a dog. 10* Under Suns/Bucks |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Even with the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks could not overcome Chris Paul and the Suns in Game 1 Tuesday night. Antetokounmpo didn’t just play, he contributed a strong effort with 20 points and 17 rebounds. Teammate Khris Middleton had 29 points. But where the Bucks were really hurt was the free throw line. Not only did they have 10 fewer attempts, they had 16 fewer makes. Phoenix was 25 of 26 from the charity stripe while Milwaukee was 9 of 16. That difference was basically identical to the difference in the final score. I look for a much tighter Game 2 and possible Bucks’ outright win. Take the points. Following their last three playoff losses, the Bucks have come back to win and cover the spread in the next game. All three wins were by double digits and the average margin of victory was 20.0 PPG! Now every one of those games was played in Milwaukee. But the Bucks have proven they can win on the road. They did so in Game 7 vs. Brooklyn in Round 2 and took two of three in Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Finals. While the Suns have opened the last two series with B2B wins, Game 2 vs. the Clippers was decided by just a single point (on a last second alley-oop). Phoenix lost its backup center (Dario Sakic) to a season-ending ACL injury in Game 1. While they were able to persevere and win the game, depth is now a bit of a concern. With Antetokounmpo back, this spread seems a bit high. I know he played in Game 1 and the Bucks still lost, but this team is 10-4 SU off a DD loss this season and 4-1 when trailing in a playoff series. I see Jrue Holiday scoring more than 10 points (his Gm 1 total) in Game 2. He missed all four three-point attempts. The Bucks are allowing just 104.5 PPG in the playoffs and I expect a better effort at the defensive end tonight. 10* Milwaukee |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): This has become a difficult series to handicap as each team’s best player is injured and we don't know (for sure) what their statuses are for Game 6. Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently listed as doubtful for Milwaukee while Trae Young is questionable for Atlanta. What we do know however is that when each team has stepped up without its star player, it has been at home. The Hawks have won 15 of their last 18 home games going back to the end of the regular season and facing elimination, they are my call here (minus the points). Consider it a bonus if Young suits up. Young is more likely to play than Antetokounmpo tonight, not just because of the severity of injuries, but also because Atlanta is trying to stay alive. But it must be pointed out that the team had its best shooting night in a while, minus Young, the last time they played here at home. They basically dominated the entire game and won by 22. That was with Antetokounmpo playing more than half. The Bucks got 100+ points from their starters in Game 5, but asking for that again is probably a case of “asking for too much.” The reserves only scoring 17 in the last game is cause for concern as they now have to go on the road. Atlanta had its best overall shooting night of the series in Game 4, then had its best three-point shooting night in Game 5. So they’ve proven they can take care of business without Young. The same can be said for Milwaukee w/o Giannis due to what happened in Game 5, but the fact the Hawks are back at home now is a big reason why I am on them. Also, they are 2-0 SU/ATS when trailing in the series during this postseason. Milwaukee has lost four of its last six games on the road. The Hawks have lost B2B games only two times in the playoffs. So look for them to force a Game 7. 10* Atlanta |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 216 | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Hawks/Bucks (8:35 ET): This has become an incredibly difficult game - and series - to handicap with the unknown statuses of Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Young missed Game 4, but it turns out that the Hawks did not need him as they shot 50% from the field and rolled to a 110-88 win. Things took a rather dramatic turn in the 3Q when Antetokounmpo went down with a knee injury and the Bucks never recovered. His status is more in doubt for Game 5 than is Young’s, but there’s a chance neither even plays. That’s a lot of missing offensive production for two teams that have already gone Under in three straight games. I was dead wrong about the Hawks going into Game 4. The numbers showed that their offensive efficiency went way down without Young, but they wound up turning in just their fifth 110+ point game of the playoffs. Lou Williams stepped up big time, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance from him. Clint Capella is also questionable for tonight and Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a knee injury. On the road again, I just don’t see how Atlanta can match its offensive performance from the last game - even if Young were to return. The Antetokounmpo injury seems to loom largest though as there’s no replacing him for Milwaukee. It would be up to Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom are known to “step it up” at home. There’s no doubt (in my mind) that the Bucks are going to score more tonight than they did in Game 4, but it would still take a pretty substantial increase for this game to go Over the total. The Under is 10-4 for the Bucks in all playoff games while it’s 11-5 for the Hawks. So the teams have combined to go Under 70% of the time including each of the last three games. How about one more? 10* Under Hawks/Bucks |
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06-30-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 130-103 | Loss | -107 | 35 h 0 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers lost their first three home playoff games (all to Dallas) before winning the next five. That streak came to an end in Game 4 of this series, a spot I faded them, as they lost an ugly 84-80 contest. But if nothing else, the Clippers have proven themselves resilient throughout this postseason. Everyone knows they are the first team in NBA Playoff history to overcome multiple 0-2 series deficits in the same postseason. Well, now they are trying to overcome a 3-1 series deficit against the Suns. They took the first step in doing so, winning Game 5 116-102 as a 5.5-point dog. After cashing them in that spot, I’ll take them again as they return home for Game 6. Phoenix is averaging just over 100 PPG (100.4 to be exact) in this series. That number gets a lot lower if you take out their 120-114 win in Game 1. As I mentioned in the Game 5 analysis, despite being down in the series, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns. Their margin of victory in Game 3 (14 points) exceeded the combined margin of victory in Phoenix’s three wins (11). Now, after Game 5, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns by a total of 17 points across the five games. Had they properly defended that out of bounds play at the end of Game 2, they would be the ones with a chance to move on to the NBA Finals tonight. The Clippers are 8-3 ATS this postseason when trailing in the series. They are now 3-0 ATS when facing elimination. The Suns averaged just 88 PPG in the two prior games here in LA and has not scored more than 104 in any of the last four games. With Kawhi Leonard still out, both Paul George and Reggie Jackson have stepped up big time. For the Suns, Chris Paul has not been good since returning from his COVID-related absence. He’s 0 for 9 from three-point range in the L2 games. The Suns are just 2-10 ATS their L12 road games vs. the Clippers. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-29-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series could be “all over but the shouting” if Trae Young is unable to go for Atlanta. Young, who is easily the best player for Atlanta, sprained his ankle near the end of the third quarter in Game 3 and was clearly affected by it. The Hawks were outscored 30-17 in the 4Q, which basically decided the game. An MRI revealed Young has a bone bruise in his right foot. His status for tonight is questionable and while I’m sure he’s going to want to go, just how effective can he be? Even with improved 3-point shooting in Game 3, the Hawks still lost by double digits. Lay the points here. Obviously, you have to be careful NOT to overreact to an injury. But it’s difficult to overstate what a loss Young would be for the Hawks. This is not like the Clippers, who have Paul George to “pick up the slack” without Kawhi Leonard. Even if he does play, will Young be able to attack with his patented “floaters?” Or will he be relegated to being a jump shooter? He’s had some dreadful shooting nights in these playoffs, including Game 2 of this series. Milwaukee is a very good defensive team as they’ve allowed just 102.4 PPG in the playoffs. Over its last five games, all with Young, Atlanta has topped 103 just once. The Hawks have not been favored to win a game since Game 4 of the first round. So it’s impressive enough that they’ve got this far. I did take them in both Games 1 and 3 of this series (got a win and a loss there), but my feeling now is that their run is likely over and this series is probably ending in five games. Atlanta’s three-point shooting had been really bad for several games before improving on Sunday. But with Young injured and possibly out, it’s going to decline greatly. Believe it or not, but this is the first time the Bucks are ahead in a series since the first round. They went 3-0 ATS vs. Miami once they grabbed the series lead. 10* MIlwaukee |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have made a habit of climbing out of precarious positions this postseason, but the current one is the most precarious they have been in so far. An ugly 84-80 loss in Game 4 has them down 3-1 in this Western Conference Finals and facing elimination. Even though they’ve lost the first two games of all three series, the Clips have faced elimination just twice before. Those were Games 6 & 7 in the first round against Dallas and both saw them turn in outstanding efforts. Granted, they had Kawhi Leonard back then, but I think they’ve got enough left to at least still cover tonight. Take the points. Phoenix overcame some awful shooting, including 4 of 20 from 3-point range, to win Game 4. They are now hitting just over 25% from behind the arc over the L3 games. You might be fearful that they are “due” to improve, but the same could be said for the Clippers, who were even more dreadful in the last game. They made only 32.5% from the field and were 5 of 31 from three-point range. They also missed 11 free throws, which was killer. Considering LA was #1 in the league from three-point range in the regular season, I think their shooting is set to improve more in this game. Even though Phoenix has won three of the four games, they’ve actually been outscored over the course of the series! They’ve yet to win a game by more than six points. Considering that and just how low scoring the series has been, taking the points seems like a real prudent move here. This series could easily be 2-2 right now had the Clippers properly defended the out of bounds play at the end of Game 2. They are 7-3 ATS when behind in the series this postseason and this could be only the 4th time all season that they’ve been an underdog of 5.5 or more points. 10* LA Clippers |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): The Hawks are off a terrible loss in Game 2 as they were beaten by 34 points. It was 77-42 at halftime with the second quarter turning into a complete massacre as the Bucks outscored the Hawks 43-17. But now the Hawks get to come home where they have won 14 of their last 16 games. You’ve gotta think they’re shooting is going to improve as they made only 25% of their three-point shots in Milwaukee. Trae Young in particular is due for a bounce back as he went 1 for 8 behind the arc in Game 2. That was after he had 48 points in Game 1. Take the points in Game 3. No one on the Hawks scored more than 15 points in Game 2, which is really unbelievable when you think about it. It’s not just Young who I see “raising his game” tonight, but the supporting cast as well. Remember that role players often perform much better at home. There are four other double digit scorers on Atlanta besides Young (Collins, Bogdanovic, Gallinari, Huerter) and you should expect at least one of them to step up here. This team is 20-6 ATS its L26 home games and 3-1 ATS off a SU loss in the playoffs. Milwaukee shot 52.5% in Game 2 as they were able to consistently get better looks. But just as Atlanta’s production from its supporting cast should increase in this game, the Bucks’ supporting cast production should decrease. Friday was their highest scoring game in the postseason since Game 2 of the Miami series (Round 1). They never scored more than 108 in any of the four games at Brooklyn in Round 2. Jrue Holiday scored 55 points in the first two games of this series, an average he will not maintain moving forward, and most of Kris Middleton’s big games come at home. 10* Atlanta |
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06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Clippers won Game 3 at home and hope a familiar pattern continues tonight as they look to even this Western Conference Finals up at two games apiece. As you know, the Clippers have lost the first two games of all three of their playoff series. In each of the previous two instances, they have battled back to win Games 3 and 4. In the case of the Utah series, they won four straight after being down 0-2. No team in NBA Playoff history had previously EVER won multiple series in the same postseason when falling behind 0-2. So the Clippers are really defying the odds and doing so without Kawhi Leonard makes it all the more impressive. But I think the pattern is going to be broken tonight by Phoenix. The Suns certainly won’t shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 3 when they made only 38.9% from the field, including 10 of 32 from three-point range. After missing the first two games due to quarantine, Chris Paul returned for the Suns in Game 3 and did not shoot well (5 for 19). Nor did Devin Booker, who was 5 of 21. Booker had 40 points in the Game 1 victory, but has struggled with his shot the L2 games. Do not be surprised if he has a big game tonight. The Suns are 6-3 ATS off a double-digit loss this season. With their shooting likely to improve from Game 3, hopefully we’ll also be seeing a typical effort from the Suns at the defensive end as well. In the playoffs, they have held the opposition to just 102.4 PPG on 42.9% shooting. That’s pretty impressive in the “modern NBA.” The potential loss of backup PG Cameron Payne is a bit of a concern, but the Clippers are reeling more when Leonard still out and Marcus Morris being listed as a “gametime decision.” LA has no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside and Paul George’s minutes are really starting to add up. Might fatigue become a factor for George? The Suns have lost B2B games only four times this season. 10* Phoenix |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
8* 1st Half LA Clippers (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. You’d be hard pressed to find a situation where a team is going to come out more motivated than when down 0-2 in the series and playing at home. That’s the situation the Clippers are in, once again. I made them my top play for the entire 2nd round when they faced this very situation against Utah. They won that game 132-106 and enjoyed a sizable halftime advantage. I also took them when they were down 0-2 in the Dallas series and they won that game 118-108. Not as confident this time about winning the game, but I definitely expect LA to be leading Phoenix at halftime tonight. This series could easily be tied 1-1, but Paul George missed a couple of late free throws (after the Clippers got a gift call) and then the Suns pulled off the miraculous out of bounds play to win Game 2. That was the ninth straight win for Phoenix, who is shooting better than 50% in the series. Even if Chris Paul plays tonight, I don’t see that kind of shooting from them tonight. The Clippers have shot well from three-point range in this series and I do see that continuing considering they were #1 in the league in 3PT % during the regular season. Since 2005, NBA home teams down 0-2 in the series and playing Game 3 at home have covered the first half line roughly two-thirds of the time. So history, not just their own, is on the Clippers side tonight. The fact they have fallen into their third straight 0-2 series hole is a little shocking, but I’ve got no doubt that they’re coming out hot early. They’ve actually trailed the Suns at the half each of the last four times they’ve faced them. But three of those four deficits were three points or smaller. 8* 1st Half LA Clippers |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 221 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Clippers (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 (again!), the Clippers are going to come out desperate here in Game 3 at home. Expect them to lean heavily on the three-point shot as they’ve already attempted 81 in the first two games and made over 40%. That percentage might sound high, but this was the #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season at over 41%. So they’re actually “right on par.” This is a team that averages 116.4 PPG at home. In the last four home games, all wins, they’ve averaged 126.75 PPG. So look for this one to go Over the total. Phoenix has also shot the ball well in the first two games. They finished at a blistering 55.1% in Game 1, which I did not think they would match in Game 2. They didn’t, but still shot 50% from the field. One area where they did struggle though was from behind the three-point arc. They made just 6 of 26 attempts. Devin Booker saw his point total cut in half from Game 1 as he finished with only 20 points in Game 2 (on 5 of 16 shooting). I would expect an increase in points from Booker tonight and for the Suns to shoot better from three-point range. Chris Paul is now listed as probable for tonight after missing the first two games. Regardless if he plays or not, Paul’s backup (Cameron Payne) is probably going to do well. He had 29 points and nine assists in Game 2. If Paul does play here, Payne is likely to have a big game playing against the Clipper second unit. If Paul doesn’t suit up, well, Payne has already proven he can step up. Prior to stealing Game 2, the Suns had scored 113 or more points in seven straight games. They are 25-12-1 Over L38 games and this one should go Over as well. 10* Over Suns/Clippers |
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06-23-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): They were outscored by 20 points in the series, but the Hawks won in seven games against the 76ers to advance to just their second Conference Final in the last 50 years. Three of the four wins were by four points or less, two of them saw them rally from a deficit of at least 16 points. After coming out red hot in Game 1 at Philadelphia, the Hawks never really regained their shooting touch, which makes the series win all the more improbable. I realize that none of this sounds like a “ringing endorsement,” but I’ll call for Atlanta’s shooting to improve and for them to cover the spread in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Just like Atlanta, Milwaukee needed to win a Game 7 on the road to get here. But the Bucks are now the favorites to win the NBA Championship after getting by Brooklyn and they’ve got the home court advantage. They’ve yet to lose a home game in the postseason (5-0 SU) and don’t forget they swept Miami in Round 1. However, the Hawks have traveled well in the playoffs, winning five of their seven road games against the Sixers and Knicks. I don’t think the one extra day of rest is going to matter much for Milwaukee. In fact, they are just 1-4-1 ATS their L6 games on 3+ days rest. The key for me here is that the Hawks’ shooting HAS to improve after what we saw in the last five games (42.9 FG%). That they won a Game 7 on the road while shooting 25.9% from three and their best player (Trae Young) going 5 for 23 overall was a minor miracle. This is a team that shoots 36.8% from 3-point range for the year. They’ve been below that average each of the L5 games, so they are due to regain their touch, Young in particular. Something that most don’t know is that the Hawks have the best SU record in the Eastern Conference (31-14) since Nate McMillan took over. Take the points. 10* Atlanta |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): I passed on Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals as both teams came in on ATS win streaks (Clippers 4-0 L4, Suns 7-0 L7) but minus big stars. I was also unsure on how to handicap the difference in rest. What ended up happening was the Suns winning 120-114 and just barely covering the four-point spread (thanks to last second free throws). After taking the “wait and see approach,” I’m fairly confident that Phoenix won’t be able to shoot 55.1% from the field again. So take the points as I don’t think the number should be higher here than it was for Game 1. The Clippers actually drained seven more threes compared to the Suns on Sunday. Typically that results in victory, but not for Ty Lue’s team as Phoenix was far better on its two-point attempts, going 36 of 57, which is a ridiculous 63.1%. Devin Booker had a massive game, scoring 40 points to go along with 13 rebounds and 11 assists. I’m pretty confident that Booker isn’t going to be that good again. The rest of the Suns team (sans Booker) attempted only two free throws in Game 1, which is odd. No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers has meant Paul George stepping up. In the three game without Leonard, George has scored 37, 28 and 34 points. Remember that the Suns are playing without Chris Paul. The Clips are the first team in NBA history to win two series in the same postseason in which they lost the first two games. They don’t dare fall into an 0-2 hole for the third consecutive series. They’ve been good on the road so far, winning all three games in Dallas and then Game 5 in Utah. You have to think that Phoenix’s 8-0 ATS run is going to come to an end sooner rather than later. Take the points. 8* LA Clippers |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): While it’s come down to a winner take all Game 7, I feel that the 76ers have largely dominated this series. I took them in Game 6, which they obviously won, and will reiterate much of what I said in that analysis. They’ve now outscored by Atlanta by 27 points over the course of six games. All three Hawks’ wins have been by four points or less (10 total) and in two of them they had to erase a deficit of 18 points of greater. Since losing Game 1, Philadelphia has shot better than 40% from three-point range. I will lay the points in Game 7 with what I feel is the better team. When I (successfully) played Atlanta in Game 1, a lot of my rationale had to do with the knee injury suffered by 76ers’ MVP candidate Joel Embiid. Well, save for a terrible second half in Game 4, Embiid has shown no ill-effects from that knee injury. He has been the best player in the series, averaging more than 30 points per game. In the three games here at home, Embiid has averaged 38.7 PPG, scoring at least 37 every time. He did not get to the free throw line much in Game 6 (only 4 attempts), but I expect that number to improve rather dramatically in Game 7. As a team, Philly shot just 40.9% on Friday, another number that should rise here. The last five games have seen the Hawks average only 104.8 PPG on 43.1% shooting. Sadly (for them), I do not see those numbers going up much in this game. Trae Young basically kept them in Game 6 all by himself, scoring more than a third of the team’s total points. With Game 7 being on the road, it’s less likely that his “supporting cast” steps up. Atlanta has a losing road record this year. De’Andre Hunter is a big loss at the defensive end. For Philadelphia, Ben Simmons is going to easily top his sorry six-point effort from the last game and the Sixers’ starting five is likely to attempt more than 14 total FTs as well. This series should already be over, but at least 76ers’ fans can now watch the clincher in person. 10* Philadelphia |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 215 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
10* Under Bucks/Nets (8:35 ET): The home team being 6-0 straight up in this series is what will get the “lion’s share” of attention heading into this Game 7 battle. But don’t discount what has been going on from an O/U perspective. The series has been far lower scoring than expected (remember these teams were 1-2 in scoring during the regular season) with five of the six games staying Under by double digits. The only Over was in Game 5 and that one barely got Over. The other games have stayed Under by 17, 27, 66 (a record), 25 and 17 points. I don’t think the O/U is low enough here. Take the Under. This Game 7 being on the road does no favors for Milwaukee. Of their 29 losses this year, 19 have come on the road. They are 0-5 SU this year in Brooklyn, including 0-3 in this series. Those three losses have seen them average just over 100 PPG. Over the L5 games, they have averaged just 98.2 PPG. Khris Middleton really bailed the Bucks out with a 38-point effort in Game 6. But he has shot only 32.3% from the floor in the three games in Brooklyn. Middleton’s likely drop in scoring here is a real problem when you consider his teammates were a combined 2 of 25 from three-point range in the last game. We all know about the Under trend with Game 7’s in the NBA Playoffs. Since 2002-03, the Under is 36-22 in all Game 7’s including 22-7 in Round 2 or later. With five of the previous games in this series staying Under by 17 or more points and three of them not even hitting 200, there’s only one way to play this Game 7. Compared to Game 6, Brooklyn will limit Milwaukee’s number of fast break points. I don’t think Kevin Durant and the Nets will “go off” though as they’ve averaged just 101.1 points the L5 games. James Harden has only 21 pts in the two games since he returned. Kyrie Irving will be missed. 10* Under Bucks/Nets |
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06-18-21 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | Top | 119-131 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
8* Over Jazz/Clippers (10:05 ET): Injuries have played a vital role in this series. Mike Conley has yet to suit up in the second round for Utah while Donovan Mitchell continues to deal with an ankle injury. Things are more serious for the Clippers, who have lost Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard. But they were the ones to step up in Game 5 with a 119-111 upset (as 8-point underdogs) and one more win would mean they’re on to the Conference Finals, a place no Clippers team has even been before. Despite these key injuries, I still see Game 6 going Over the total. Every game in the series has seen at least 221 total points scored. I learned my lesson taking the Under in the last game. It actually was still in play late in the 4th quarter despite the teams combining for 125 points in the first half and 175 through three quarters. But it ended up being the second highest scoring game of the series. Maybe the Clippers don’t shoot 51% again without Leonard, but this was the league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season and they’ve been above 40% in each of the L3 games. They are now back at home where theoretically the role players should shoot better. Even without Leonard, I still see the Clips getting to 110 points. Utah was the league’s 2nd best three-point shooting team in the regular season. They put up 54 attempts in Game 5 and made 20. While it was their most 3PA in any game in the series, they previously made 20 on just 39 attempts in Game 2. This is a team that has five scorers averaging at least 15 PPG. One of them (Conley) is out, but Mitchell is averaging over 30 PPG in the postseason and Bojan Bogdanovic made nine threes in the last game for 32 points. The Jazz average 115 PPG on the road and should get to that number here. They are 8-2 Over in all playoff games. 8* Over Jazz/Clippers |
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06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): It is almost incomprehensible to me that the 76ers are now trailing in this series. They’ve outscored Atlanta by 22 points. They’ve shot better than 50 percent from the field (51.3% to be exact) in the five games, including 46 of 104 (44%) from three-point range in the last four. One could argue that the series should actually be over, or at the very least it should be Philly leading 3-2 headed into Friday’s Game 6. But after blowing leads of 18 and 26 points in the L2 games, the Sixers now face elimination for the first time in these playoffs. While the last loss was completely demoralizing, I think they will step up to the challenge. Lay the points. Both Philly wins have been by 16 points while Atlanta’s three have been by 10 points … total! Not since a shockingly good Game 1 performance (where I took them) has Atlanta enjoyed a double digit advantage in any game in this series. The 76ers have been up double digits in each of the last four games! But none of that matters now after they shockingly blew a 72-46 lead (at home!) with just over 20 minutes to go in Game 5. The past two games have seen the Sixers shoot substantially better than the Hawks. But they’ve taken 26 fewer FG attempts and struggled from the FT line. That’s how you blow 18+ point leads in consecutive games. The good news from Game 5 - if you’re a Philly fan - is that Joel Embiid had 37 points. That was a nice bounce back from his 0 for 12 effort in the second half of Game 4. Seth Curry helped Embiid out with 36 points, a career playoff-high. But the rest of the team totaled only 33 points. Expect that number to rise in Game 6. Atlanta is without its best defender, DeAndre Hunter, which is eventually going to catch up with them. I realize the Hawks have won 14 of their last 15 home games. But the 76ers easily could have won both Games 3 and 4 here. They are 10-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. They’ll stay alive. 10* Philadelphia |
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