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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-24-17 | Jazz +4.5 v. Clippers | 84-102 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Take the Utah Jazz (#711) The concept here is simple. The Clippers didn’t face anybody playing ‘A’ level defense in the preseason, because nobody plays ‘A’ level defense in the preseason. In their first two regular season games, the Clippers faced the Suns and Lakers, arguably the two worst defensive teams in the NBA. Tonight, LA is laying points to a team that, without a shadow of a doubt, plays elite level defense on a nightly basis. I expect that to be a real problem for LA…… To make matters worse for the Clippers, they’re playing without their expected starting point guard, European sensation Milos Teodosic. And they’ve struggled to match up with the Jazz repeatedly, as clearly evidenced by their first round playoff loss to them last spring; a series where Utah won three times on LA’s home floor including Games 5 and 7. Look for the Jazz interior duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to have their hands full against Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors this evening, leaving the Clips without a legitimate matchup edge anywhere on the floor. That’s bad news for any favorite…..Take the Jazz |
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10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -167 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#902) There’s no reason to overthink this one. The Dodgers went 23-4 in Clayton Kershaw’s starts in the regular season and they’ve gone 3-0 in the playoffs for their ace. Last year, LA went 17-4 in Kershaw’s 21 regular season starts and 4-1 in his postseason outings. And LA closed out 2015 with an 8-2 mark in Kershaw’s final ten starts (including the playoffs). Add it all up and we’re talking about a team that has gone 55-11 in their ace’s last 66 starts, including an 8-2 mark in the postseason. Yet the price is very reasonable to support Kershaw this evening. And It’s surely worth noting how dominant the Dodgers bullpen has been, entering the World Series with an MLB record 23 consecutive scoreless innings in the postseason. Dallas Keuchel has a career home/road dichotomy that hasn’t gone away, even as he’s developed into an elite ace. For his career, Keuchel has a losing record on the highway, with an ERA more than a run and a half higher than it’s been at home. Those numbers stayed consistent this season: 2.26 at home; 3.53 on the road. Keuchel was dominant in both home playoff starts, but he failed to make it out of the 5th inning of his lone road start at Yankee Stadium, leaving the game with a 4-0 deficit. I trust LA’s lineup more. I trust Clayton Kershaw on regular rest. I like this Kershaw quote, talking about the heat: “Yeah, it is going to be hot. But, no, I don't think it's going to change anything. I think by 5 o'clock, the sun will be down…..I'm from Texas. It's going to be hot for everybody. We're all used to it.'' And I trust the Dodgers bullpen to close the game out. Reasonable price to lay, given the circumstances….. Take the Dodgers. |
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10-23-17 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Washington UNDER (#513-514) The Nuggets rank #29 in the NBA in possessions per game on offense, playing at a snail’s pace through their first two games, just 0.1 possessions/game higher than the #30 ranked pace squad, Sacramento. Washington has played faster, but they’re not a true uptempo team either, ranked outside the Top 10 in pace ratings. And yet this total is sitting above 222 as I write this on Monday morning, a good notch or two too high! The Nuggets haven’t reached 100 points yet, in large part, because their VERY young point guards are struggling. The Jamal Murray/Emmauel Mudiay combo – a combined 41 years of age – hasn’t been pretty to watch, averaging just 14 points and five assists per game. That duo isn’t likely to have an easy time against All Star John Wall tonight. But Denver ranks #7 in defensive efficiency, with the likes of Paul Millsap, Kenneth Faried and Mason Plumlee all bringing it on the defensive end of the court. Head coach Mike Malone is not a guy who will tolerate consistent defensive breakdowns. The Wizards cashed Over tickets in their first two games, hence this high total. But as we saw repeatedly last year, the Wiz are far more efficient offensively at home than they are on the highway. Head coach Scott Brooks called out his squad for some poor defensive habits after the game; always a good thing for Under bettors next time out. And new starter Kelly Oubre is having an immediate impact on the defensive end of the floor, a strong wing defender. We saw a 92-85 game between these two teams last year, and both teams shot over 41% from the floor – it wasn’t a brickfest. Tonight’s game might be! Take the Under. |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles OVER 49 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Philadelphia OVER (#477-478) The Eagles offense is a completely different animal compared to last year. When Carson Wentz was a rookie QB, he didn’t show much comfort level throwing downfield to his receiving corps. That’s most assuredly not the case in 2017. The Eagles have scored at least 26 points in five of their first six games. Wentz has improved from a 6.2 yards per pass attempt average last year to a 7.7 yards/attempt average this year, a dramatic improvement. It’s not just Wentz. Unlike last year, the Eagles have had standout left tackle Lane Johnson healthy for most of the season, and he’s expected to play again tonight. Free agent addition RB LaGarrette Blount ranks behind only Kareem Hunt on a yards per carry basis for backs with 65+ carries this season. WR Nelson Agholor has surpassed the TD total from his first two seasons COMBINED through the Eagles first five games, and Agholor’s yards per catch has improved from 10.1 last year to 16.1 this season, stretching opposing defenses from the slot. Throw TE Zack Ertz, having a pro bowl caliber season, and WR’s Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith into the mix and this offense is flat out dynamic, loaded with playmakers at multiple positions. The betting markets haven’t necessarily accepted this just yet. Meanwhile, the Redskins have cluster injury problems in their secondary. Impact rookie pass rusher Jonathan Allen just went on IR, devastating their pass rush. CB Josh Norman: “(Jonathan Allen is) a big loss. I’m not gonna be up here and fake it and say it’s not. It’s a big loss for us because he’s one of our driving forces in the middle. He creates havoc in the middle when he’s on the field.” But Norman won’t have to worry about covering the Eagles receivers without a pass rush – he’s been downgraded to OUT this evening, while his cornerback counterpart on the other side, Bashaud Breeland, is questionable at best. Safeties Stefan McClure, Deshazor Everett and Su’a Crvens are already on IR. This defense is primed to get picked apart all night. But the Redskins offense is no joke either! RB Rob Kelley is expected back on the field tonight, an upgrade for their running game. Chris Thompson has been a difference maker catching passes out of the backfield, while Vernon Davis is still tough to guard over the middle and the likes of Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder give Kirk Cousins every bit as much offensive weaponry to rely on as Carson Wentz has. The Eagles, too, have a bevy of banged up defensive players. Washington, too, has been putting up points in bunches on a consistent basis, hanging 26+ three times in the last four weeks. The ‘Skins have been a very consistent Over team throughout the Jay Gruden era, 19-6 to the Over in their last 25 regular season ballgames. This series has consistently gone Over the total as well, with five Over cashes in the last seven meetings, with the losing team reaching 20 in all six of those contests. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the OVER. |
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10-22-17 | Broncos +2 v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#473) My clients and I have already cashed one Big Ticket winner betting against the Chargers at the StubHub Center in LA. It was a sin of omission not to have more than one winning bet so far against a team with legitimately no home field advantage whatsoever. This week, they’re facing a superior opponent, fully motivated off an embarrassing loss last week; an opponent they’ve already been dominated by once this season. And LA is the favorite here, laying points! I’m not buying it! Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. The numbers show that very clearly through the first six weeks of the season, with a 3:3 TD-INT ratio in three games at home, compared to a 7:2 ratio in three games on the highway. No surprise, then, that the Chargers have yet to win a game or cover a pointspread in their new home. Yet the markets continue to factor in a home field edge for LA. Expect the Broncos to have as many fans (or more) at StubHub as the Chargers do; exactly what we saw in LA’s home losses to the Eagles, Chiefs and Dolphins. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. They’ve lost both previous tries as favorites this season SU and (of course) ATS. The Chargers were largely non-competitive for three quarters of the first meeting between these two squads. Trailing 24-7 in the fourth quarter, LA took advantage of a pair of Broncos turnovers in Denver territory as well as a missed Denver field goal to make the final score (24-21) look closer than the game actually was. Now the Chargers are returning home, fat and happy, off back-2-back tough road wins. Of course, the two wins came against the hapless Giants (0-5 at the time) and the hapless Raiders (major disappointment, injured QB and a four game losing streak). The markets, doing what they do, are convinced that LA is primed to make a run here, but I’m not buying that argument one iota. LA didn’t beat the Giants and Raiders as much as those two sorry teams beat themselves. And they’ll be facing a Broncos squad primed to make a statement off their dismal ‘no-show’ at home against the Giants last week. The Broncos defense was flat last week in a game where they had precious little film to prepare for what they were going to see against the Giants new look offense. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row, especially off a loss and facing a divisional foe. For the season, the Broncos have held foes to 3.0 yards per carry, the #1 ranked run defense in the NFL. The Chargers rank #31 in that category, opponents averaging a full 5.0 yards per carry differential. Denver has a big defensive edge against the pass too, ranked #6 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed compared to the Chargers #16 rank. Plain and simple: Denver is the better of these two teams, and I expect them to show it! Wrong team favored. Big Ticket: Take the Broncos. |
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10-22-17 | Cardinals v. Rams -3 | 0-33 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#468) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner with LA last week in their double digit win at Jacksonville. While the pointspread this week isn’t as user friendly – I can’t go back to the well with LA for another Big Ticket Report -- I have absolutely no hesitation supporting the Rams with a standard sized wager in London against the Cardinals. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game. That defense played their best two games of the season over the past two weeks; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. “The Rams turned the ball over five times against Seattle two weeks ago, their first ‘turnover plague’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad, and they fixed it last week, even facing the top notch Jags stop unit. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 185 pass attempts for the season, while only taking nine sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football.” The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Cardinals offense; more than a half yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco, at Dallas and at Jacksonville. And LA took this trip last year, a fact that matters considering the trip to London is a brand new thing for the Cardinals. It’s worth noting that Arizona had to fly from the West Coast while the Rams flew out straight from Jacksonville. Arizona has played decently at home this year. Away from home, they’ve been a complete disaster, losing 35-23 at Detroit, barely escaping with a three point OT win as TD favorites at Indy, and blasted 34-7 at Philly. This isn’t a new issue. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, ‘Zona is a woeful 2-6 ATS as an underdog away from home. Both covers came in late December against teams playing for nothing. And there’s no comparison between the Rams solid stop unit and the injury riddled Bucs unit that Carson Palmer and Adrian Peterson shredded last week. Chalk worth laying! Take the Rams. |
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10-22-17 | Ravens v. Vikings -5.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the Minnesota Vikings (#458) Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. After a win against the struggling Raiders, it was more of the same for the Baltimore offense last week; held to ten points and less than 300 total yards in their OT loss at home to the Bears last week. Don’t be fooled for a moment about the final score of that game. The Ravens got a kick return TD and a punt return TD – otherwise the Bears would have blown them out. And I’m not anticipating two more special teams TD’s this week! The Ravens offense is clearly broken. From a yards per play standpoint, they rank #30 out of 32 NFL teams. Joe Flacco’s QB rating is 66.1 right now. His previous CAREER low was 80.3 as a rookie in 2008. They aren’t likely to have TE Maxx Williams (ankle) or deep threat WR Breshad Perriman (concussion) available, both downgraded to doubtful. TE Ben Watson has a bum knee, WR Mike Wallace has a bad back and WR Jeremy Maclin hurt his shoulder. Facing a staunch Vikings defense – a stop unit that has held all four home opponents under 20 points – we cannot expect the Ravens to suddenly come alive with TD’s in bunches. Baltimore’s defense is quickly becoming every bit as injury riddled and problematic as their offense. Run stuffing DL Brandon Williams has a foot injury, and the Bears ran for 231 yards against them last week, the third time in four games that Baltimore has given up 165+ on the ground. Cornerbacks Jimmy Smith, Jaylen Hill and safety Ladarius Webb are all questionable or doubtful, none of them healthy. Linebacker Tim Williams won’t play. This is truly a nightmarish injury situation, leaving Baltimore as a clear ‘bet-against’ team; far weaker than their 3-3 record would indicate. Minnesota is not! They’ve enjoyed a STRONG homefield edge in their new digs, winning three of their first four home games by double digit margins. In fact, Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in their first twelve regular season games at US Bank Stadium; an emerging trend worth riding especially when facing a clear ‘bet-against’ foe. Take the Vikings. |
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10-21-17 | Yankees v. Astros -127 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Take the Houston Astros (#918) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet on a very busy sports Saturday. Starting pitching matchups don’t factor much into my Game 7 opinions in MLB Playoff action. Instead, I want my money on the better team, plain and simple, especially when the superior squad has positive momentum. Houston is the better of these two teams – ten wins better in the regular season -- particularly when it comes to their ability to hit quality pitching. New York has been held to one run or less four times in their six road playoff games. Houston has scored 27 runs in five home playoffs games; pounding out seven or more on three separate occasions. I trust the Astros to come through with a clutch hit more than the Yankees this evening. And yesterday’s bounceback effort from Justin Verlander really matters in a matchup of two relatively young squads. Houston has faced the abyss – dealing with their Game 4 meltdown and a 3-2 series deficit – and they’ve proven they can respond in positive fashion. The Bronx Bombers rallied back from 2-0 down against the Tribe, but their miracle postseason run ends tonight. Take the Astros. |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 52 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#402) Football games are won and lost in the trenches. The astute handicapper will always assess the matchups on the offensive and defensive lines before placing a wager. Those matchups for this game are so one-sided, and the pointspread is so short that the Irish are a clear choice to this bettor, worthy of Big Ticket status. When these two teams met at the end of the season last year, Notre Dame was an injury riddled mess at the tail end of a dismal 4-8 campaign. USC rolled to an 18 point victory as 17.5 point favorites. That was then, this is now. In 2017, it’s USC dealing with a significant injury bugaboo right now – their defensive line is in absolute shambles. Brandon Pili, a true frosh from Alaska, is the only healthy, active regular at defensive tackle. Starter Josh Fatu is in concussion protocol. Five star recruit Kenny Bigelow quit the team. Frosh Marlon Tuipulotu just underwent season ending surgery. Junior Malik Dorton is still dealing with a knee injury he suffered last month. And let’s not forget that starting LB Porter Gustin is out with a broken toe and torn bicep, while starting defensive end Rasheem Green isn’t practicing with an ankle sprain. A cluster injury problem like that would be bad against any foe. Against Notre Dame in South Bend, it’s a freakin’ disaster! The Fighting Irish are LOADED on the offensive line. Senior left tackle Mike McClinchey and junior left guard Quenton Nelson both have ‘first round of the NFL draft’ potential for next spring. All five starters on that line could play on Sundays. Notre Dame ranks #5 in the nation in rushing yards and #2 in the nation in yards per carry. Josh Adams is averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per rush; Dexter Williams is at 10.7 and Deon McIntosh is at 5.8 ypc. Dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush is expected back in the lineup this week, although backup Ian Book played well in his staid in their last game at North Carolina. All five Notre Dame wins this year have come by 20 points or more. Their only loss – by a single point to Georgia – looks better now, with the Bulldogs a Top 5 squad that won all of THEIR other games by 20 points or more. They’ll be facing a Trojans squad in pointspread freefall, overvalued from Day 1 this year to the tune of a 1-6 ATS mark. Notre Dame’s defense has forced multiple turnovers in each of their last five games while their low risk offense has only turned the ball over seven times all season. USC’s offense has committed at least two turnovers in every game, unable to take care of the football. That’s a HUGE problem in a game where the Irish are primed to push USC around at the line of scrimmage and put themselves back in the college football playoff picture. VERY cheap price to lay given the circumstances! Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
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10-21-17 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech -20.5 | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#360) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against North Carolina last week. Let me start this write-up with an extended excerpt from what I wrote last week, all of which is still pertinent to for their trip to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech on Saturday. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “North Carolina is as strong a ‘bet-against’ team as you can find in college football this year. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels anyway after they sent their QB Mitch Trubisky to the NFL after his junior season, along with the likes of Elijah Hood and Ryan Switzer – impact offensive playmakers. A home loss to Cal in Week 1 showed that very clearly. And that was BEFORE the injury bug really started to strike. “Nine guys who have started a game for the Tar Heels this year are now out for the season, and that doesn’t include a whole host of shorter term injuries and another whole host of guys who got hurt in camp, before the season even started. With a pair of ineffective QB’s throwing to a receiving corps that has lost their top five guys to injury, playing behind a weak offensive line and without any semblance of a running game to help them, the Tar Heels offense is stuck in the mud; producing only 48 points in their last four ballgames combined. “North Carolina’s defense is every bit as injury riddled, if not more. And unlike the offense, that defense was short on talent to begin with! The Tar Heels lost their one true leader on defense; the guy who called the plays in the huddle in Andre Smith. He’s out for the year. Senior strong safety Donnie Miles, the team’s career leader in starts, is hurt as well, as is senior DL Tyler Powell, sophomore safety DJ Ford and several others. The only team that North Carolina has been able to stop all year was Old Dominion…” While the Tar Heels are collapsing, the Hokies are in a great spot. They’re fresh, rested and ready off a bye week, looking to open up the offense for young QB Josh Jackson (13 TD passes, 66% completions and 55 rushing attempts already). This defense dominated the Tar Heels last year in a 34-3 win at Chapel Hill, and that was when North Carolina’s offense was elite. Legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster sounds pretty confident that the backdoor won’t be open here: “We’re not anywhere close, in my opinion, to where we can be and the kids see that and are working that way. That’s still exciting, that we can continue to grow and develop as a unit and as a team.” Hokies head coach Justin Fuente has been an excellent bully; 5-1 ATS as home chalk against FBS foes here in Blacksburg. This one gets ugly for the road dog! Take Virginia Tech. |
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10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#392) My clients and I cashed a winning bet with the Texas Longhorns last week. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from what I wrote last week. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Here in Austin, with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. Last week, they covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. And when you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last dozen tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-2. That’s Straight Up! They’re 13-0 ATS, the only SU losses coming away from home against teams with Top 5 talent: Oklahoma and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is ‘bet-on’ all the way right now. He threw for 278 yards and ran for 110 vs. the Sooners last week. Herman: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” The Texas defense hasn’t allowed anybody to score more than 27 against them in regulation since their opener against Maryland. They’ve already seen Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, battle tested against elite QB’s and strong passing games. This is, by far, the best defense Oklahoma State has seen since TCU, and we certainly remember how that Cowboys offense got shut down at home by the Horned Frogs….. Take Texas |
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10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri OVER 63 | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 45 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Missouri – Idaho Over (#373-374) When Barry Odom arrived in Columbia, he promised to make the Missouri offense as fast paced as any offense in college football, the ultimate uptempo squad. As with many new, uptempo offenses, the Tigers struggled when stepping up in class, against the better defenses of the SEC. But when Missouri got to face a lesser foe with a slower defense, it got ugly for that opponent. Missouri hung 61 on eastern Michigan, 79 on Delaware State and 45 on Middle Tennessee. All three of those games flew Over the total by more than two touchdowns – even the one where their defense pitched a rare shutout! Fast forward to 2017. Missouri’s offense looked great in their opener against Missouri State; a game where the Tigers scored 72 points and generated more than 800 yards of total offense. But it was culture shock for Drew Lock and the Tigers when they stepped up in class, shut down completely by the likes of South Carolina and Purdue in September. Both of those games stayed Under the total by 4 TD’s or more. The betting markets did what betting markets do – they adjusted Missouri down, way down, from a totals perspective after their offense managed only 14 points for a third straight week, whipped by Auburn. In each of their last two games, Missouri was totaled in the 50’s. Kentucky has a better defense this year than in any recent season. Georgia’s defense is as good as any in the country this side of Alabama and Clemson. Yet Missouri moved the football effectively against both of those squads, scoring 34 and 28 points. No surprise, then, that both games FLEW Over the total by more than two touchdowns. Drew Lock has figured it out at the QB position and Missouri’s offense is really starting to click for the first time in the Barry Odom era. Idaho’s defense presents a major step down in class, compared to what they’ve been facing. And the Vandals own offense, led by senior QB Matt Linehan – a four year starter – is capable of putting TD’s on the board against a dismal Tigers stop unit that has allowed every single opponent they’ve faced this season to get into the 30’s. Expect a shootout! Take the OVER. |
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10-20-17 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | 132-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Take the Phoenix Suns (#720) Pardon my language, but if you missed the Lakers play last night, you missed a real shit-show. Luke Walton didn’t have his team ready coming out of training camp, and it’s a very flawed team to begin with. Last year’s Lakers squad was the single worst defensive team of the DECADE on a points per 100 possessions basis, yet somehow they managed to get worse defensively in the offseason. Lonzo Ball has no chance of staying in front of the Suns; one of three defensively soft, very young ‘one and dones’ from college in the Lakers starting lineup. Let new starting center Brook Lopez tell you about how young LA really is right now: “It’s weird being one of the older guys on the team. That turnaround happened so quickly. A year or two ago I was playing with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce and all of a sudden the next few years I’m playing with 19-, 20-year-old kids. It just flopped so fast.” It wasn’t just bad defense that plagued the Lakers in their opener last night – their bad offense was on full display as well, most notably the 19 turnovers. With a rebuilt roster and a rookie point guard, playing on the second night of back-2-backs, on the road, I’m not expecting any sort of immediate turnaround from LA. The Suns were thoroughly humiliated on opening night, trailing by 25 at halftime on their way to a 48 point home loss to the Blazers. Head coach Earl Watson was “embarrassed”. His quote: “Portland came in here and basically kicked our butts as bad as they could.” Wing Devin Booker following the game: “It's going to be hard for me to sleep tonight.” The Lakers provide Phoenix with the ideal opponent to bounce back STRONG! Take Phoenix. |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#304) Houston laid an egg at Tulsa last Saturday, losing 45-17 as two TD favorites. Memphis had a +4 turnover margin, and needed every one of those turnovers to win in their three point victory, failing to cover as 3.5 point chalk. But with Memphis sitting at 6-0 SU right now and the Cougars coming off an ass kicking, there’s no surprise that the markets have been moving in favor of the Tigers since the opener. That money is moving in the wrong direction if you take these quotes in mind, taken from the local papers in Houston and Memphis this week. Every quote – literally, every one I found – points towards the Cougars as short home chalk. Houston senior defensive end Nick Thurman: “As soon as we got back home (late Saturday night) we had to bury it and move on. Our whole focus is on Memphis. There's nothing we can do about that. There's now a sense of urgency around here.” Houston junior cornerback Isaiah Johnson: “There's been a lot of talk about how we used to do it in the past. But that's not important right now. It's about the 2017 Cougars. Not the 2015 team. Not the 2016 team. It's about this year. What do we want to leave as our legacy? We still have that chip on our shoulder that we lost a game we weren't suppose to lose. That loss only made us stronger. It also brought us together." Houston senior safety Terrell Williams: "Our season's far from over.” Memphis head coach Jay Norvell knows the dangers of this spot, one week after the Tigers woke up to find themselves in the Top 25 for the first time since 2015. He certainly doesn’t like the scheduling spot off the intense win over Navy: “I'd like to say that when the schedule came out I didn't notice, but I noticed. I noticed how these two games backed up to each other. It's a short week and we know we have to adapt some things to how we prepare, but we've got to go get it." Two weeks ago, Memphis got torched for more than 300 passing yards against UConn. Last week, they were gashed on the ground, but turnovers saved them against Navy. Houston’s not a team that has been plagued with turnovers repeatedly this season, and they’re in revenge for a four point loss at Memphis last year. Look for the Cougs to get that revenge tonight! Take Houston. |
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10-18-17 | Dodgers +102 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#967) Let me start with a brief excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting the Dodgers in their comfortable Game 3 win at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Dodgers have no business as underdogs tonight facing off against the ice cold Cubs lineup. Last year, on their way to the World Series title, the Cubs got key, clutch hits throughout their playoff run. That hasn’t happened yet in this series, with Chicago notching just 15 hits in the first three games of the series, hitting .160 as a team. In fact, the Cubs have just 20 baserunners for the series, compared to their 32 strikeouts. And these current struggles come on the heels of an NLDS in which the Cubs were held to three runs or less in four of the five games.” “Let’s not forget about this bullpen mismatch either. Given the continued struggles for the Cubs bullpen, a tight game late works much better for the LA side of the equation than the Chicago side of the equation. LA hasn’t lost yet in the postseason, a perfect 6-0 here in the playoffs; an emerging trend worth backing again tonight.” Not much has changed between Game 3 and Game 4 except that the Cubs have a weaker starting pitcher tonight and their hope for yet another series comeback has essentially been squashed, facing a 3-0 series deficit against the best team in baseball. This Dodgers squad is locked in at the plate, dominant out of the bullpen and fully cognizant of the fact that they need to stick a stake in the Cubs heart tonight. Dave Roberts is making every right move, something that Joe Maddon isn’t doing this year. And the starting pitching matchup – like the bullpen matchup and the lineup matchup – works in the Dodgers favor. I know that Alex Wood hasn’t pitched since September. I also know that Wood went 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA this season, the best #4 starter in baseball. LA’s bullpen behind him can carry the load if he falters. That’s not the case for the struggling Cubs pen behind the ineffective Jake Arrieta. Arrieta has only made four starts since the beginning of September and none of them have been pretty. He needed 90 pitches to labor through four innings in the NLDS against the Nationals, walking five batters in a game where he was VERY lucky that the wind was blowing in. The wind is blowing OUT to left center tonight! Expect the Cubs season to end tonight. Take the Dodgers. |
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10-18-17 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 197.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Dallas – Atlanta OVER (#713-714) Expect a very different pace of play from the previously stodgy Dallas Mavericks this year. From Day 1, Dallas is looking to take advantage of the quickness and speed of rookie point guard Dennis Smith. Owner Marc Cuban, talking about his newest potential star: “Dennis is fast. I mean he’s easily the fastest guy on the team and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the fastest end line to end line in the NBA…..watching him get a rebound and go coast-to-coast, fans are going to be fired up.” Smith: "In this league, I've got to attack first and then make my reads from there. It's tough for defenders to stay in front of me. If I can beat my man and make the defense collapse, I'm smart enough to make the right read out of that." Head coach Rick Carlisle: “We want to push it every single time, even if there's a score. The quicker you get it over half-court, the greater chance you have to make an early vertical attack on the basket.” It takes time for the markets to adjust to teams that radically change their pace of play in the offseason. And with the Hawks defensive rotations in disarray throughout the preseason, we can expect an uptempo affair that flies Over the total with room to spare. Take the OVER. |
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10-18-17 | Hornets v. Pistons -3 | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#708) The Pistons open their new home court tonight with a roster that looks very similar to last year’s. Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris, Jon Leuer, Stanley Johnson and Ish Smith all return with a comfort level in Stan Van Gundy’s systems. The Pistons new pieces, most notably the ultra-intense Avery Bradley and his backup Langston Galloway, appear to fit right in to what Van Gundy is preaching. And it’s certainly worth noting that despite last year’s disappointing campaign, Van Gundy had them ready out of training camp – the Pistons won each of their first five home games by double digit margins. Charlotte, too, was a disappointment last year. Unlike Detroit, head coach Steve Clifford is dealing with a lot of moving parts right now. The Hornets remade their frontcourt in the offseason with the addition of Dwight Howard, a disappointment everywhere he’s been in recent seasons. Their top two wings are both out, with Nicholas Batum injured and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist away from the team dealing with a personal matter. Clifford’s quote is ‘bet-against’ all the way: "We're playing without two starters for this first stretch. We don't have the depth, nor are we as strong to start the games as we will be a month from now. That's always a factor. But it also gives us a chance for these other guys to grow here early in the year." I don’t want ‘growing’ teams at +3 on opening night against a home favorite primed to make a statement at Little Caesars Arena tonight. Take the Pistons. |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers +105 v. Cubs | 6-1 | Win | 105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#963) The Dodgers have no business as underdogs tonight with Yu Darvish on the mound facing off against the ice cold Cubs lineup. Last year, on their way to the World Series title, the Cubs got key, clutch hits throughout their playoff run. That hasn’t happened yet in this series, with Chicago notching just seven hits in the first two games of the series, hitting .117 as a team. And these current struggles come on the heels of an NLDS in which the Cubs were held to three runs or less in four of the five games. Meanwhile, Yu Darvish has essentially been unhittable down the stretch. In his last four starts, Darvish has an 0.74 ERA, striking out 28 batters while allowing only 11 hits and walks combined. Current Cubs have hit just .195 against Darvish in their careers. And the Dodgers fully rested bullpen behind him is ‘bet-on’ all the way, retiring 15 consecutive batters to close out Game 1 and 12 of 13 batters to close out Game 2. I understand that Kyle Hendricks was dominant in his Game 1 win against the Nats in the Chicago’s first round playoff series, although he did get roughed up in his second start of that series. And I understand that Hendricks was the starter who closed out the Dodgers last year, a dominant 7.1 inning 2 hit, 0 run effort. But this Dodgers lineup is as potent as any in baseball, and Hendricks is no threat to pitch a complete game shutout – he lasted past the seventh only once all year. Let’s not forget about this bullpen mismatch either. Given the continued struggles for the Cubs bullpen, a tight game late works much better for the LA side of the equation than the Chicago side of the equation. LA hasn’t lost yet in the postseason, a perfect 5-0 here in the playoffs; an emerging trend worth backing tonight. Take the Dodgers. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#276) To say this is a ‘circled’ game for the Tennessee Titans is something of an understatement. The Titans have lost 11 consecutive games to the Colts, with Indy and Houston dominating the division and Tennessee ranked nearer to Jacksonville in the AFC South, relegated to ‘bottom feeder’ status. All four losses to Indy over the past two seasons have been hotly contested games, decided by a TD or less. And the Titans are coming off poorly played back-2-back losses. First, they got Deshaun Watson’d in Houston, then they followed that up with a dismal offensive showing with Matt Cassel behind center at Miami last Sunday. In 50 dropbacks over six quarters on the highway over the past two weeks, Cassel netted only 132 passing yards (counting the eight sacks he took). Normal starting QB Marcus Mariota is expected back in the starting lineup tonight. So we’ve got a Titans team with an axe to grind against a divisional rival that has owned them in every reason season. And we’ve got a Titans team with a chip on their collective shoulders, looking to wipe away the stink of their subpar showings over the past two weeks. They’ve got the optimal setting to do that – at home, in front of a raucous Monday Night Football crowd. And there’s no question about which of these two squads has the superior team in 2017. Over the course of their last four games, the Titans have faced three elite defenses – the Jaguars, Seahawks and Texans, all ‘top quartile’ units. Now they’ll take a big step down in class against the suspect Colts stop unit, a defense that allowed 46 points in each of their first two road games; ugly losses to the Rams (by 37) and the Seahawks (by 28). It’s surely worth noting that Tennessee beat that same Seattle team rather comfortably here at Nissan Stadium. We all know that Andrew Luck is still hurt, but Jacoby Brissett has filled his big shoes admirably, guiding Indy to a 2-2 record in his four starts. But Brissett is likely to be running for his life tonight, thanks to cluster injuries on the Colts offensive line. With their top three guards all injured, the Colts are expected to start undrafted second year OL Jeremy Vujovich and undrafted rookie Kyle Kalis at the guard spots this evening. That’s bad news against this defensive front! It’s surely worth noting how well the Titans defense played last week despite Cassel’s ineptitude, holding the Dolphins to 12 first downs and 178 yards, giving up just 3.0 yards per play. No surprise here if Dick LeBeau’s stop unit is a very tough nut for the Indy offense to crack this evening, while the Colts defense does not compare favorably to any of the stop units that Tennessee has seen over the past month. Indy has allowed a full 6.0 yards per play this season; tied for 31st in the NFL. Find a -7 (be smart, lay a little extra juice to get the key number, there are plenty of -7’s at -115 or -120 out there as I type this), and expect the Titans exorcize their Colts demons. Take the Titans. |
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10-15-17 | Rams +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Rams (#265) Jacksonville is 3-2 right now and feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout win in Pittsburgh last week. Of course, that win was as easy as it gets for the Jags, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing his career high in interceptions – Blake Bortles attempted a grand total of one pass after halftime of that contest. The previous week, the Jags were outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets two weeks ago, even if you take the Jets two long 70+ yard TD runs out of the mix. This Jags team is capable of winning some games by relying on their playmaking defense coupled with Leonard Fournette’s ability to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. But if Bortles is asked to do anything other than ‘game manage’, he’s a complete disaster, getting worse, not better. It’s not like the Jaguars have enjoyed any sort of reasonable home field advantage in Jacksonville. They lost their only previous home game by three touchdowns to Tennessee. Last year, they lost six times in seven tries here in Jacksonville. My numbers show them with an 9-28 SU mark on this field dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign, a consistent track record of failure. And it’s surely worth noting that in games where the favorite was -2 or higher, the underdog has gone 4-0 ATS in Jaguars games this year; not a team to lay points with! There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game, bad news for a QB like Bortles who makes mistakes under duress. That defense played their best game of the season last week against Seattle; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. The Rams turned the ball over five times last week, their first ‘turnover plagued’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 164 pass attempts for the season, while only taking six sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football. The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Jaguars offense; a full yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco. We’ve seen them win SU on the road at Dallas. While LA is flying East, this is not an early start game. And the Jags homefield edge is as small as any in the NFL. The Rams full season defensive numbers are lying and their offense is the vastly superior unit. Big Ticket: Take the Rams. |
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10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins OVER 46.5 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco – Washington OVER (#263-264) Forget any stats that you’ve seen about the San Francisco 49ers defense, at least for this week. Spots don’t get much worse than this one for San Fran. Two weeks ago, San Fran led at Arizona in the closing minutes, but ended up losing in overtime. The defense was on the field for more than 80 snaps and 37 minutes. Last week, the 49ers travelled again, flying east to take on the Colts. Again, the game went into OT. Again, the 49ers defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes and 70 snaps. Now, this exhausted and banged up stop unit has to do it again – a third straight road game, heading back East once again, with an early start kickoff. San Fran gave up 41 on a Thursday Night against the Rams the last time they were tired out, and the Redskins offense is primed to explode coming out of their bye week behind an offensive line that’s as healthy as it’s been since Week 1. With playmaking WR Josh Doctson expected to suit up, a Redskins offense that’s in the top quartile of the NFL – averaging a full six yards per play – is capable of lighting up the scoreboard with big plays here. The season long stats for this San Fran offense stink – that’s why this total is as low as it is. In three of their first four games, the 49ers didn’t score an offensive touchdown. But in two games where the 49ers were able to run the football, they scored a combined 62 points, and Brian Hoyer was able to make some big plays downfield against defenses crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. It’s worth noting that the Redskins won’t have shutdown CB Josh Norman in the lineup this week. And frankly, I’m not sold on the Redskins run defense, especially against a 49ers offense that is likely to play their fair share of uptempo, no huddle football. Expect some fireworks here! Take the Over. |
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10-15-17 | Bears +6.5 v. Ravens | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#261) The numbers don’t lie. In their last 14 tries as favorites of more than a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens are 3-11 ATS. All three of the covers came against the same team – the Cleveland Browns, the absolute worst team in football in recent seasons. Continuing a long term trend under John Harbaugh, the underdog in Ravens games has been profitable to bet blindly once again this year. Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. That’s the real Ravens; not a team with any business in this pointspread range right now. I know they blew out Oakland last week, in large part due to the Raiders own incompetence. Make no mistake about it -- that victory did not make me think that the Ravens have suddenly solved their myriad of problems; a team that has been outgained by 0.6 yards per play this season. The Bears aren’t a pretty team to watch and they’re certainly not a ‘sexy’ squad with a 1-4 record and a short week to prepare off a Monday Night loss. But the effort has been there for Chicago every week, especially on the defensive side of the football. They’re getting key LB Danny Treviathan back in the lineup after his league mandated suspension. And the Bears season long offensive stats are flat out lying now that Mike Glennon has mercifully been benched for a playmaking Mitch Trubisky. Too many points! Take the Bears. |
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