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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-13-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State -1.5 | 64-65 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma State (#604) It’s been one heck of a week for the Texas Longhorns. On Tuesday, they found out that second leading scorer (and unquestioned team leader) Andrew Jones had leukemia, forced to leave the team. On Wednesday, they won by one in a double OT thriller against TCU with basically a six man rotation – Shaka Smart doesn’t have any sort of a bench these days. Four Longhorns played at least 41 minutes of floor time; Dylan Osetkowski and Matt Coleman finished with 49 minutes of gameplay. How Texas has to regroup off a truly emotionally and physically taxing stretch and win a game in Stillwater; no easy task. Four of Smart’s six rotation players are freshmen, and without Jones or injured guard Kerwin Roach(fractured hand) we can expect this team to have a hard time contending with a pressure defense on the highway. Let’s not forget the Longhorns struggles on the perimeter even when their guards were healthy; a team that doesn’t hit three pointers (under 30% for the season) or free throws (just 65% YTD) very well. Oklahoma State is primed to take advantage of the tired Longhorns today. Mike Boynton’s squad goes nine or ten deep, with no player averaging 30 minutes per game. The Cowboys have won 14 straight at home against unranked foes. They are a great free throw shooting team, #8 in the country at better than 78% for the season. And the Cowboys have the veteran presence in an expected tight game that the Longhorns lack, with fifth year seniors Kendall Smith and Jeffery Carroll leading the way. Cheap price to lay, given the matchups & the spot! Take Okie State. For additional reading, check out these links https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2018/01/11/reality-right-now-shaka-smart-reflects-emotional-day-after-andrew-jones-leukemia-diagnosis http://www.mystatesman.com/sports/emotions-aside-the-season-marches-texas-heads-oklahoma-state/jTymX0g3cuCwf62gA3EEiN/ |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 76 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#302) There’s a reason that we haven’t seen the #1 seed as a Divisional Round home underdog EVER in the HISTORY of the NFL Playoffs. And to see Atlanta laying a full -3 here is a pointspread that is out of whack with my current numbers. Let’s start with two basic facts: The Falcons aren’t as good this year compared to last year AND this Falcons team is anything BUT fresh heading into this matchup. Last year, Kyle Shanahan’s offense ranked #1 in the NFL in virtually every meaningful category. With basically the same personnel back this season, under Steve Sarkisian’s tutelage, the Falcons declined by 187 points scored this season – more than 12 points per game less than last year. Their yards per play dropped from 6.7 to 5.8. Last week, they converted on only one of eight tries at 3rd and 6 or longer, but a litany of Rams special teams mistakes early left Atlanta in ‘play with the lead’ territory. This week, I’m not so sure they’ll ever have a lead to play with! And the Falcons are anything but ‘rested and ready’ here off their West Coast game last week. Over the last three weeks, the Falcons have been in ‘playoff intensity’ mode every time – a short week off a Monday Night game at New Orleans, then Carolina at home, then their playoff opener last week in LA against the Rams. The Eagles over that same cycle? Home games vs. the Raiders and Cowboys (with many starters sitting against Dallas), then a bye week. Clearly, we should expect the home underdog will be better physically and mentally prepared. Nick Foles lit up the Rams after Carson Wentz got hurt; then threw four TD passes against the Giants the following week. But his last two starts were both downright ugly. But Foles grew up in Texas and went to school at Arizona – he did not fare well in the frigid conditions in Philly for their games against the Raiders and Cowboys to close out the regular season. But the weather forecast for Saturday’s game has temperatures above 40 degrees; MUCH warmer than it’s been in any recent Eagles home game. I’ll call it ‘Foles’ weather, especially with Philly facing off against a dome team. Last, but not least, let’s remember to give the Eagles defense proper credit. Jim Schwartz’s stop unit ranked in the top quartile of the NFL against both the run and the pass, based on Football Outsiders advanced metric stats. Those aren’t the type of defensive numbers that merit Philly as a home dog for this matchup – even with Foles behind center, Philly is the better of these two teams! Take the Eagles. |
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01-13-18 | Miami-FL +5 v. Clemson | 63-72 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Miami-FL (#559) (Abbreviated write-up for this early start game) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Miami in their last game as they knocked off Florida State. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “The numbers do not lie. Miami ranks #6 overall in the country in defensive efficiency. They are top ten in the country at defending the two point shot AND the three point shot, with shot blockers Dewan Huell and Ebuku Izundu cleaning up the low post. With a balanced offense – four double digit scorers – and strong rebounding numbers as well, the price is VERY cheap to support an elite squad in a strong spot with matchups that work in their favor.” Miami is an underdog today against a team that was picked eight spots below them in the preseason. They’re rested, off since last Sunday; in sharp contrast to a Clemson squad that just played (and lost) on Thursday Night. Brad Brownell’s squad has not been covering short numbers, 0-fer the season (four previous tries) as favorites of -7 or less, while Miami won SU in their lone previous try as a road underdog this season, beating Minnesota. Be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline here at +190 or higher. Take Miami. For additional reading, check out these links https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/quick-turnaround-for-tigers-clemson-plays-miami-less-than-hours/article_c8150dc4-f7d8-11e7-a3b5-43411657b9e2.html http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-hurricanes/fl-sp-um-hoops-acc-stretch-20180112-story.html |
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01-13-18 | South Carolina v. Georgia -4.5 | 64-57 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#538) (Abbreviated write-up for this early start game Georgia is coming off a rare stinker, outscored 48-33 after taking a halftime lead at Missouri on Wednesday. Everything went wrong for the Bulldogs – poor shooting, turnovers, an inability to get to the free throw line – the works. Returning home where they are 8-0 SU with only one ATS loss all season is the ideal elixir to get Mark Fox’s back on track. Meanwhile, Frank Martin’s Gamecocks have been blasted in every road game since the beginning of December; losing by 16 to Temple at Madison Square Garden, by 16 at Clemson, by five at Ole Miss and by 14 at Alabama, failing to cover the spread in any of those hostile environments. Take Georgia. For additional reading, check out these links: http://www.macon.com/sports/college/university-of-georgia/bulldogs-beat/uga-basketball/article194466329.html http://onlineathens.com/sports/dogbytes/2018-01-11/after-rare-game-uga-star-bulldogs-just-need-yante-be-yante# |
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01-12-18 | Nets +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Brooklyn (#807) The Atlanta Hawks have the worst record in the NBA at 11-30. They are returning home off a long road trip; a classic ‘bet-against’ spot. And they are coming home off a rare victory, beating the Nuggets on Wednesday to close out their five game West Coast swing. That’s the key here. Atlanta doesn’t win back-2-back games very often. In fact, off a single victory this season, the Hawks are just 1-9 SU in their next game. Yet they are favorites tonight; needing to win – by margin – in order to cover the pointspread. Given that 10% track record in spots like this one, I have little hesitation fading the Hawks here. The Big Ticket piece of this equation comes from the Brooklyn side. Sure, Atlanta is a ‘bet-against’ team here, but are the Nets worth trusting here? You betcha! The Nets are coming off arguably their worst game of the season, blasted by 34 at home against the Pistons. First, it’s worth noting the spot – the Nets were off two heartbreakers, losing by one in OT to the Raptors and by two to the Celtics. Second, it’s worth noting how the Nets have done off an ugly defeat of late. After getting blasted in New Orleans, they beat the Heat in Miami by 24. After a bad loss to the Kings, they beat the Wizards by 35 in their next game. The Nets have been covering pointspreads as underdogs all year long, 19-9 ATS when catching +3 or higher. They won by 20 on this floor back in December, a wire-2-wire blowout. And from all indications, Brooklyn is a focused ballclub after getting outrebounded by 20 in that ugly loss to Detroit. Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie, coming off a two point effort immediately following his career high 31 point showing on Monday: “This is our job and we're all here to play basketball. We came out here and laid an egg. That's inexcusable and unacceptable. We're going to look to flush it and play better next time out in Atlanta.” Head coach Kenny Atkinson: “(Detroit) dominated us in every phase of the game. There's not much more to say than that. The message is that we have to go to Atlanta and get this one back. We obviously don't like these types of losses. It hurts your individual pride and competitive spirit." Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Nets.. |
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01-12-18 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Penn State | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#833) My clients and I cashed a winner backing Nebraska as short home favorites over Wisconsin earlier in the week. And frankly, from all indications, the Cornhuskers are still an undervalued commodity as they travel to State College to take on the Nittany Lions tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up vs. Wisconsin. “Nebraska is just beginning a loaded stretch of four games in ten days. Senior guard Anton Gill: “That way (head coach Tim) Miles can’t keep us in practice for three hours…. This is where you find out if you’re a good team or not. If you come out of this with a positive record, if you can, you’ll have a chance at the (NCAA) tournament. If you can’t, you’re just another mediocre team. We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” With four double digit scorers, the Huskers have a balanced attack. They’ve won five of their last six games overall, including an impressive 15 point blowout on the road at Northwestern in the exact same pointspread range we find them in today. And from a pointspread perspective, the Huskers have been undervalued for the last month, a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven lined contests. Penn State’s Josh Reaves – their energy guy on defense and second leading assist man -- missed the Nittany Lions game at Indiana earlier in the week “attending to some academic concerns.” His return tonight is questionable at best. Penn State is not a good free throw shooting team, bad news in this spread range where late FT’s are a big piece of the equation. And Nebraska will certainly remember how Penn State ended their season with an OT loss in the Big 10 Tourney last March. No surprise here if this game comes down to the final possession, just like that last meeting did! Take Nebraska. For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/mens-basketball/miles-squad-stresses-need-to-create-own-energy-in-road/article_8cb28895-22bf-5599-8d33-fe837e0a75f0.html https://www.blackshoediaries.com/2018/1/12/16882382/penn-state-nebraska-basketball-preview-1-12-18-glynn-watson-tony-carr-isaac-copeland-lamar-stevens |
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01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 210.5 | 121-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento – LA Clippers OVER (#505-506) Before the Kings 99-86 loss to the Lakers earlier in the week, head coach Dave Joerger told reporters that he wanted to see a faster pace. What happened? A brick fest, filled with turnovers, as Sacramento shot less than 35% from the floor while giving it away16 times. Even 25 Lakers turnovers couldn’t make up for their shooting woes. That being said, the pace was there for a MUCH higher scoring affair than what actually transpired. Joerger, prior to tonight’s game: “We really try to pick up our stuff in practice, so the game almost feels a little slower. And try to make them play, fast, fast, fast and make mistakes and that's OK, because we learn from them.” Clearly, we can expect the Kings to continue pushing the pace vs. the Clippers this evening. For a team that ranks #27 out of 30 NBA teams in full season pace rating, a change of pace to uptempo basketball will take time for an appropriate market adjustment, especially after that debacle vs. the Lakers that stayed 28 points Under the total. The Clippers have been an Over machine in recent weeks, cashing nine Overs in their last ten ballgames. In their last five games, LA has averaged 113 ppg and allowed 113 ppg. The losing team in Clippers games scored at least 105 in all five of those contests. With all the injuries the Clips have suffered this season, Doc Rivers hasn’t been able to create any defensive rhythm for his squad, but they’ve still got plenty of shooters. They hung 122 on the Kings just after Christmas in another game that cashed Over bets with ease. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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01-11-18 | Clemson v. NC State +4 | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina State (#558) Clemson is in a classic college hoops ‘bet-against’ spot this evening as they travel to Raleigh to take on the NC State Wolfpack. Clemson just got ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in eight years following their ultra-intense OT win over Louisville. Tigers senior guard Gabe DeVoe makes my case for me – when getting ranked is a clear distraction: “Oh yeah, I was excited. I texted my mom, texted all my boys, just excited talking about seeing a number beside your name. It was a big deal to me.” This is also a ‘bet-against’ spot because these two teams played less than two weeks ago, a comfortable Clemson victory at home. NC State was ice cold throughout, hitting less than 35% from the floor. More DeVoe: “Teams are more juiced up playing on their home court, so I think we just need to do a good job on the defensive boards, just keep them off the offensive glass and just keep the ball out of the paint.” Easier said than done! The Wolfpack have been a strong offensive team from Day 1 this season, coming off a confidence inspiring double digit home win over Duke; now 10-1 SU on this floor this season. Most importantly, they were able to do exactly what they couldn’t do in the first game against Clemson – pound the paint, and feed their bigs while getting double digit scoring efforts from all five starters. Still at home, in revenge mode against Brad Brownell’s squad, look for the Wolfpack to hang tough for the full 40 minutes with a solid shot at the outright upset. Take NC State. For additional reading from local sources: https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/no-clemson-basketball-travels-to-n-c-state-fresh-off/article_1ff9c302-f637-11e7-acd7-bbccab14960b.html http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/nc-state/state-now/article194134314.html http://www.wralsportsfan.com/not-a-fluke-looking-back-at-nc-state-s-win-over-duke/17244438/ |
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01-10-18 | Georgia +5.5 v. Missouri | 56-68 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#777) For additional reading, click on these links from local sources: http://www.newstribune.com/news/sports/prep/story/2018/jan/10/missouri-expecting-physical-challenge-georgia/708112/ https://www.columbiamissourian.com/sports/mizzou_mens_basketball/spotlight-shines-on-maten-as-tigers-face-georgia/article_0d77b310-f592-11e7-bdb7-7f5ff19e9f62.html My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including a SU win at Marquette, a neutral site victory over St Mary’s and a wire-2-wire cover at Rupp Arena in Lexington against Kentucky already this season. Here’s an excerpt from my last write-up supporting the Bulldogs: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M. This is a team worth supporting consistently as a road underdog.” The Tigers have a matchup problem on both ends of the floor when it comes to protecting the basketball and valuing possessions. Missouri turns the ball over in bunches on offense; Georgia has held foes to an 0.81 assist-to-turnover ratio on defense. Their turnover problems could be even worse today, because point guard Blake Harris quit the team after last week’s game at South Carolina, leaving the team short-handed at a very key position for this matchup. I don’t like these quotes coming from the Missouri locker room coming off their last second loss to Florida over the weekend. Senior Jordan Barnett, talking about defending Georgia stud Yante Maten: “If we can slow him down, we have a really good chance of winning this game.” That’s not what I want to hear from my favorites! How about this ‘lack of intensity’ quote from Jeremiah Tilmon: “It’s just another game (vs. Georgia). Hopefully, we get the W, like any other game.” Live dog here! Take Georgia |
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01-10-18 | Louisville v. Florida State -6 | 73-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Florida State (#770) For additional reading, click on these links from local sources: http://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/fsu/mensbasketball/2018/01/09/florida-state-continues-protect-its-house/1017332001/ http://seminoles.com/new-look-cards-look-plenty-familiar-to-fsu-men/ Florida State is certainly battle tested right now, beating North Carolina and hanging tough with Miami and Duke in their last three ballgames. And when it comes to protecting their home floor, the Seminoles are truly elite, riding a 28 game home winning streak into their matchup with Louisville tonight. Eight of those wins have come against ranked foes and only two of those 28 wins were tight, decided by five points or less. FSU guard Terance Mann: “Nothing’s given to you when you come to Tallahassee. We’re a bunch of junkyard dogs when we’re at home.” Point guard CJ Walker: “Our thing is to take care of home and put on a show for our fans. I know that we’re going to play the best that we can in front of them." Walker continued, talking about the lessons learned from the loss to Miami over the weekend, a game where FSU was ice cold from three point range: “We learned that from our last game at Miami – just to know that if we’re not hitting 3s, we’ve got to attack the basket, get easier shots, get to the free-throw line so we can see the ball through the hoop and get more confidence.” FSU just got 7-4 center Christ Koumadje back in the lineup following an extended absence. Walker: “He’s going to solve a lot for us. (Rebounding) still comes down to a team effort, boxing out, things like that. But I feel like with Christ, it kind of makes it easier. When the ball’s up in the air, who is going to be able to jump with him? I feel like that’s going to solve a lot of problems … more transition and more possessions for us.” Rebuilding Louisville has played three previous road games this season. They haven’t won any of them, coming off a demoralizing OT loss in Clemson over the weekend. The 21 turnovers they committed in that ballgame don’t bode well for their chances against FSU’s stout defense. Take Florida State. |
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01-10-18 | Wyoming +3 v. New Mexico | 66-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#773) For additional reading, click on these links from local sources: http://trib.com/sports/college/wyoming/mbb/wyoming-men-s-basketball-looks-to-continue-strong-conference-start/article_b77d96c9-18c2-5f16-90f4-c4a7850d17f4.html http://www.santafenewmexican.com/sports/lobos-logwood-simons-expected-back-for-start-of-brutal-stretch/article_93927ce6-45eb-5984-888a-bbb518460c1e.html Here’s the key quote, from Wyoming senior leader Alan Herndon following the Cowboys come-from-behind, confidence inducing win over Boise in their last game: “Every game is important, but especially on the road. We want to be able to go out and get some road wins. I think it’s just very important for this team just to move forward. I think we do a very good job of defending home court, but now in order to get to where we want to, we’ve got to go into other people’s gyms and be able to steal some wins on their court.” More Herndon, saying the things I’m looking for senior leaders to say as they hit the highway: “I think for us, it does start on the defensive end. A lot of the times, they can get into that press when they’re making shots and they’re able to set it up. But if we’re able to play defense, able to rebound and push it a little bit more, I think that will help us. But when they do make those shots and they do have their free throws and we’re taking it out, I think we just have to be smart and make sure we’re in attack mode like we have been all season.” The Lobos have won four straight at home, showing signs for the first time all year. But when we gauge the quality of competition – the two weakest teams in the Mountain West, along with Prairie View and Rice, none of whom could handle the New Mexico pressure – those wins look much less impressive. The Cowboys can play at New Mexico’s pace better than the Lobos can……Wrong Team Favored here! Take Wyoming. |
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01-09-18 | Boise State +4 v. Fresno State | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Boise St (#561) For additional reading, here’s a link from a local source: http://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/college/mountain-west/boise-state-university/boise-state-basketball/article193644259.html Rodney Terry does not have a particularly tough team this season. In fact, I’d probably call them a tad bit ‘soft’ even after gutting out an OT win on the road in Ft Collins this past weekend. Soft or not, the Bulldogs have been an overvalued commodity – major moneymakers last year and in early season play, but 0-fer the last month ATS, including a pair of SU losses as favorites and a 15 point loss as two point underdogs. Plain and simple – Fresno isn’t being priced correctly these days, a consistently overvalued commodity. Boise is on the other end of the value equation. Since their 1-3 ATS start before Thanksgiving, the Broncos have gone 8-3 against the number, consistent moneymakers! We’ve seen Boise take care of business on the highway as well, winning SU at Oregon and UNLV, both tough places to play. But the Broncos are coming off a brutal one point OT loss in Laramie over the weekend; their first defeat in Mountain West play. Boise head coach Leon Rice: “Our expectation is to win every game, so if I had a team that was not devastated by (the Wyoming loss), I’d be really, really concerned. I think we had the proper response. Now we have to have the proper way we bounce back. That’s our job, is to regroup. The only thing (the loss) means is you’re not going undefeated (in conference).” Three things worth noting here. First, Boise hasn’t lost back-2-back games all season. Second, following their last two losses, the Broncos bounced back STRONG with 20+ point wins in their next game. And third, Fresno doesn’t have that tough low post stud who can defend and rebound, other than 6-8 Nate Grimes, who gets off the bench for less than 11 minutes per game. Boise, on the other hand, is big and physical, dominating the glass to the tune of a +9 rebounding advantage per game. Advantage = road dog in a game I expect them to win SU….or at least come pretty darn close. Take Boise State |
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01-09-18 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -9 | 70-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#560) For additional reading, here’s a link from a local source: http://www.djournal.com/sports/rebels-confront-rising-auburn-tonight/article_2b60969d-bc72-5a27-aa08-ed50e7d88db4.html My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ wire-2-wire winner with Auburn over the weekend. Let me start here with some Mike Anderson quotes from Arkansas about playing the Tigers: “I think they're (the Tigers) playing for each other. They're playing with a chip on their shoulder, so to speak……They had 22 offensive rebounds against a Tennessee team that I thought they matched up pretty well with. As they got those offensive rebounds, boy, they had a lot of kick-outs where guys were spotting up and knocking shots down.” Anderson continued: “I think they're an extra effort team. They've got guys that actually pursue the ball. You think about the (Desean) Murray kid, he's 6-3, but he's wide body. (Anfernee) McLemore is an athletic, gifted player. Of course (Horace) Spencer had a big game the other night. So I think they just do it by committee. They rebound as a team and they can see when the shot's going up and they just fly to the glass.” And boy, this is a circled game for Bruce Pearl’s team as they look to end a ten game skid against the Rebels. Last year, both losses to Ole Miss were absolutely devastating. The Rebels rallied from an eight-point deficit to win 88-85 at Auburn and trailed by 23 in the second half only to rally for a 90-84 victory at home. The Rebels scored 118 points in the second halves of those games including 63 points in Oxford. Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy: “We scored a lot of points in both of those games, and that’s something that’s been a struggle of late for our team.” With only one starter back from last year’s squad, the Rebels have shown their inexperience in their only two previous road games – double digit losses to Georgia and Middle Tennessee. Expect another double digit loss tonight! Take Auburn. |
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01-09-18 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska -1.5 | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#548) For additional reading, here are two links from local sources: http://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/mens-basketball/huskers-busy--day-stretch-begins-at-home-against-wisconsin/article_11fc9449-c1b6-5131-b8ba-1fb6c607e7f2.html http://www.theindependent.com/sports/huskers_hq/flexibility-with-lineups-could-serve-huskers-well/article_e8927c72-f4f3-11e7-a5ea-f33ae4e080d0.html Make no mistake about it – this is a statement game for the home team. Nebraska lost in OT by a single point to Wisconsin last year. The Huskers never recovered, losing five of their last seven; staying home for the postseason. That was then, this is now. Nebraska is just beginning a loaded stretch of four games in ten days. Senior guard Anton Gill: “That way (head coach Tim) Miles can’t keep us in practice for three hours…. This is where you find out if you’re a good team or not. If you come out of this with a positive record, if you can, you’ll have a chance at the (NCAA) tournament. If you can’t, you’re just another mediocre team. We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” Coach Miles: “This is a very important game — taking care of home court. Last year this was a team that beat us on our home court. We need to be able to stay on the front end of this thing, right? Right now we’re in a five-way tie for (sixth) place at 2-2. You’re going one of two directions, up or down…..The advantage (for the home team) is the energy of your players, the fact you’ve got fans lifting them up and making them feel more confident. That certainly happens at Pinnacle Bank Arena.” With four double digit scorers, the Huskers have a balanced attack. That’s not the case for Wisconsin; a team with Ethan Happ and not much else these days, especially since freshman wing Kobe King (knee) and sophomore guard D’Mitrik Trice (foot) got hurt. Wisconsin shot 49% from the floor and STILL lost at Rutgers over the weekend; a team worthy of another fade here. Take Nebraska. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#151) I’m going to make this short and sweet. I’m betting on Alabama because I damn well don’t want to bet against them! Nick Saban’s track record against his former assistants borders on ridiculous. Jimbo Fisher, Mark Dantonio, Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Derek Dooley have combined to face their former mentors 11 times. Saban’s Crimson Tide are 11-0 SU in those games, winning by a combined margin of 427-111, an average margin of 43-11. And yes, that includes plenty of elite competition. When a QB (Jalen Hurts) keeps the picture of himself walking off the field as a loser in last year’s title game as his cell phone screen saver for the next year, it’s meaningful – Alabama has something to prove, a ‘mission’ team. Alabama expects to be here every year. And the fact that they’ve been here in each of the last three seasons is meaningful as well, a team that is very comfortable with the extra spotlight that shines on them at this stage of the campaign. With the most elite coaching staff in college football, I have no interest in fading the team with the most talented roster out here. All of those #1 ranked recruiting classes for Saban in Tuscaloosa matter! I’ve been very impressed with Bulldogs frosh QB Jake Fromm, but he’s a frosh QB playing for a national title. Alabama’s run defense is no joke, even against the likes of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel – Fromm’s going to have to make plays to win this game. And Fromm was not at his best away from home against quality defenses, as evidenced by their 40-17 loss at Auburn and even in their 20-19 win at Notre Dame. The Bulldogs have been playing from ahead consistently since that loss at Auburn. In a game where they’ll likely have to play from behind at some point, I don’t trust their young QB to avoid the type of back-breaking mistakes that Alabama feasts on. Roooooooollll Tide. Take Alabama |
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01-08-18 | Bucks v. Pacers -1.5 | 96-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#702) I’ve got a big ‘buy’ sign on the Indiana Pacers right now. The Pacers were consistent moneymakers in early season play, but they completely fell apart when leading scorer Victor Oladipo got hurt. Oladipo got hurt against the Pistons; a game the Pacers lost by 28. In the four games he missed, Indiana got blasted every time – three losses by a dozen points or more and a home loss as favorites to the lottery bound Mavericks. That stretch included a 21 point loss to the Bucks just last week. Oladipo returned to the lineup on Saturday with a 23 point, nine assist effort, and the Pacers responded with a 39 point blowout over the Bulls. Oladipo: “I was just out there playing. I just kind of get lost in the game and do whatever I can to help my teammates. I just try to set the tone on both ends." Rookie big man TJ Leaf: "That's an All-Star guy. Any time he's in the lineup it's going to make things a little bit easier. It's certainly nice to have a guy like that back." From all indications, this light stretch for the Pacers – only two games so far in 2018 – has allowed head coach Nate McMillan to really get after it in practice. Center Myles Turner: “We competed harder, we made it more like a training camp practice.” More Turner, after the win over Chicago: “This was a confidence game and we need to build on it." Oladipo’s comment was eerily similar: “It was great win, but we got to build on it, it's just one win. It was a good win for us and we have to keep getting better." Those ‘lookahead’ comments are exactly what I’m looking for from a team that just snapped a nasty losing streak. The Bucks are coming off a strong, come-from-behind win against the Wizards, closing the game on a 12-4 run to knock off a playoff caliber foe on the highway. It’s surely worth noting that Jason Kidd’s squad has notched back-2-back road wins only once all season, and that came all the way back in November. Take the Pacers. |
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01-07-18 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 74-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#840) Miami has matched up very well with Florida State in recent meetings, winning and covering three of the last four times these in-state rivals have battled. But Miami lost their only meeting against FSU last year, in revenge mode today. And there is a world of difference in terms of the expected energy these two teams are likely to bring to the table here. Throw in a major matchup problem for the road underdog and the case for Miami as short home chalk is very clear to this bettor. Florida State has had an intense stretch of games. They battled Duke down to the wire before falling short late last weekend, then battled North Carolina to the wire, escaping with a very satisfying one point win. This is not a ‘step-up’ spot for the road underdog. Miami, on the other hand, beat up bottom feeder Pitt last weekend, then played arguably their worst game of the year in a bad loss as road chalk at Georgia Tech earlier in the week. Head coach Jim Larranaga, following the defeat: “A comedy of errors, I would say. That’s not good basketball.” This is clearly a ‘step-up’ spot for the home favorite, following their debacle against the Yellow Jackets. Florida State matches up well against the likes of Duke and North Carolina. The Seminoles have the depth and athleticism to run with fast paced foes, and they’re at their best in the open court; ranked #23 in the country in quickest possessions on offense. But Miami isn’t going to run with anybody, ranked #326 in average possession length on defense. In fact, Miami is playing the type of defense that Roy Williams and Coach K can only dream about right now. The numbers do not lie. Miami ranks #6 overall in the country in defensive efficiency. They are top ten in the country at defending the two point shot AND the three point shot, with shot blockers Dewan Huell and Ebuku Izundu cleaning up the low post. With a balanced offense – four double digit scorers – and strong rebounding numbers as well, the price is VERY cheap to support an elite squad in a strong spot with matchups that work in their favor. Big Ticket: Take Miami. |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Buffalo (#105) Here a link to the angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two. That’s not the only angle in play to support the road dog in this matchup. There’s one more that stands out like a sore thumb; an angle that is 41-18-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs dating back to 2002, counting every game, every year! That angle is simple: take the team that faced the tougher schedule in the regular season, regardless of venue or pointspread. In this instance, it’s not even close. The Jaguars played the single weakest schedule of any playoff team this year. Buffalo faced the second hardest schedule (according to my numbers, tied with Carolina) based on my power rating number for their opponents on the week each game was played. This bet comes down to one additional factor for me: Blake Bortles. I understand that Buffalo is a flawed football team. I also understand that Blake Bortles has no business laying more than a touchdown in a playoff game! The Jags had seven blowout wins this year by 16 points or more. Playing with a lead, Bortles was just fine: a 12-1 TD/INT ratio and a passer rating of 107.5. But in the other nine games – games where Bortles was asked to make plays for the Jags to win, his numbers were downright ugly: a 9-12 TD-INT ratio and a passer rating of 73.8 (Trevor Siemian territory). This stat might be the best of the bunch. Blake Bortles led 26 drives this season in the fourth quarter or OT of one possession games (not counting a kneel down vs. Seattle or a last play Hail Mary INT vs. Tennessee). In those 26 possessions, Bortles produced a grand total of one touchdown, on a 38 yard drive against Arizona. This is NOT a QB I can trust in this pointspread range against a playoff opponent, period. Buffalo is flawed, and RB LeSean McCoy is banged up – hence the pointspread of more than a TD. But the Bills have won four of their last six overall – the only two losses coming against the Patriots – they’ve EARNED this playoff spot. The Bills have shown plenty of mettle on the highway, including SU wins as an underdog at Atlanta and Kansas City, as well as a wire-2-wire cover at Carolina. In their first playoff game of the 21st century, don’t expect the Bills to go down without a fight. Take the Bills. |
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01-06-18 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Wolves | 98-116 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#513) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting New Orleans in their SU win and cover at Utah earlier in the week. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: It’s ‘stop the bleeding’ time for New Orleans after the Pelicans blew a fourth quarter lead at home against the Knicks in their last outing on the heels of a home loss to the Mavericks in their previous game. Head coach Alvin Gentry: “No one is really excited about being .500 right now. We feel like we should obviously be a lot better than that. We still have an opportunity to run off some wins and have a situation where we end up with a really good record, but we're going to have to finish games.” The Pelicans did just that against the Jazz. I’m expecting more of the same tonight against a T-Wolves team that has been a consistent moneyloser at home all year and a consistent ‘bet-against’ squad in this pointspread range. Minnesota has cashed winning bets for their backers in only six of their first 19 home games. It’s been even worse lately – four of those six ATS covers came before November 15th! In games that are expected to be tight, with a pointspread between +4.5 and -4.5, the T-wolves are a 40% ATS proposition. And Minnesota isn’t beating good teams these days. Their last five wins: the Lakers twice, Indiana during their no-Oladipo tank, the Suns and a non-cover in an OT win vs. Denver. Before that, it was Sacramento, Dallas, the Clippers without Blake Griffin twice, the Suns again and a one point win (non-cover) against the Blazers. New Orleans is better than any of those teams….. Take the Pelicans. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6.5 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 58 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#103) Here a link to the angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two. That’s not the only angle in play to support the road dog in this matchup. There’s one more that stands out like a sore thumb; an angle that is 41-18-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs dating back to 2002, counting every game, every year! That angle is simple: take the team that faced the tougher schedule in the regular season, regardless of venue or pointspread. In this instance, it’s not even close. My numbers show Atlanta as having faced the single toughest slate of opponents of any postseason team. LA? Not so much! I understand that Wade Phillips is an elite defensive coordinator, while Steve Sarkisian has had issues as a playcaller for the Falcons this season. But I also know that the Rams have zero playoff experience – Sean McVay hasn’t won a playoff game even as an assistant, neither has Jared Goff, Todd Gurley or any of LA’s skill position talent. The Falcons went to the Super Bowl last year and return the corps of that roster – proven moneymakers when the stakes rise in January. Dan Quinn in the playoffs (not counting neutral site Super Bowls) has gone 6-0 SU as the head coach or defensive coordinator. The Falcons have faced the Panthers twice, the Saints twice, Seattle, Dallas, New England and Minnesota over the course of their final 11 games, truly battle tested. They’ve gone 6-2 SU and ATS down the stretch, moneymakers! And it’s surely worth noting that this team almost never loses contact, suffering only one loss in the last two seasons by more than ten points (at New England). LA might win this, but don’t expect it to come easy. Take the Falcons. |
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01-06-18 | St Bonaventure -3 v. St. Joe's | 78-85 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Take St Bonaventure (#641) The Bonnies are coming off their worst game in more than a month, unable to get over the hump against a Dayton team that has owned them in recent seasons. They’ll get a prime opportunity to bounce back strong this evening against struggling St Joe’s. Prior to the loss at Dayton, the Bonnies were 7-0 since leading scorer Jaylen Adams returned to the lineup after he missed the first six games of the season. That stretch includes a SU win at Syracuse and a 20 point blowout against UMass. UMass head coach Matt McCall, talking about the Bonnies after that game: “We played one of the best teams in the league and it was a challenge for us.” But the Bonnies still aren’t being priced like an elite A-10 squad; the residual effect of years of mediocrity from this program and a couple of bad early season losses (Niagara at home on opening night stands out). But this team was good enough to beat Maryland and Syracuse away from home. The Adams/Matt Mobley duo is as good a combo as any team in the conference has on their roster; the type of senior leaders we can trust in hostile environments. St Joe’s can’t shoot straight, hitting only 40% of their shots for the season. They don’t hit free throws, they don’t make three pointers, they don’t force turnovers on defense and they’ve been outrebounded by an average of more than 2.5 boards per game. They just got the pressure off with an OT win over VCU, snapping a two game skid. Expect their next skid to start tonight….. Take the Bonnies. |
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01-06-18 | Arkansas v. Auburn -5 | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#614) Mike Anderson knows what’s coming today for the Arkansas Razorbacks: I think they're (the Tigers) playing for each other. They're playing with a chip on their shoulder, so to speak……They had 22 offensive rebounds against a Tennessee team that I thought they matched up pretty well with. As they got those offensive rebounds, boy, they had a lot of kick-outs where guys were spotting up and knocking shots down.” Anderson continued: “I think they're an extra effort team. They've got guys that actually pursue the ball. You think about the (Desean) Murray kid, he's 6-3, but he's wide body. (Anfernee) McLemore is an athletic, gifted player. Of course (Horace) Spencer had a big game the other night. So I think they just do it by committee. They rebound as a team and they can see when the shot's going up and they just fly to the glass. They'll be playing at home, their first SEC game (at home). So there will be a lot of emotion going on in that game. We've got to match their energy no question about it.” Good luck with that, Mike! Arkansas won away from home at a neutral site (Portland, Oregon) against Oklahoma over Thanksgiving Weekend and they also notched a win against UConn in a no-show game for the Huskies to close out that tourney. But that’s it for the Hogs on the highway this season. Their only two true road games have been ugly; both SU losses as favorites. $$ has poured in on the home favorite here for a reason…..Take Auburn. |
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01-06-18 | Florida +1 v. Missouri | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Florida (#539) Abbreviated write-up for this early start tip. The Gators veteran backcourt of Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen have played more than 200 college basketball games between them, the type of experienced floor leaders I want on my side when it comes to ‘pick ‘em’ type games in hostile environments. The Chiozza – Allen duo helped Florida win six SEC road games in SU fashion last year. They just blew out Texas A&M in College Station, and have wins over the likes of Gonzaga and Cinci on neutral floors; a ‘bet-on’ team in games like this one. Missouri is not! The Tigers have a matchup problem on both ends of the floor when it comes to protecting the basketball and valuing possessions. Missouri turns the ball over in bunches on offense, Florida creates turnovers in bunches on defense. Their turnover problems could be even worse today, because point guard Blake Harris quit the team after Wednesday’s game at South Carolina, leaving the team short handed at a very key position for this matchup. Take the Gators. |
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01-05-18 | Hawks +7 v. Blazers | 89-110 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#817) The Hawks are 3-16 SU on the road, coming off a heartbreaking one point loss at fellow bottom feeder Phoenix. But the pointspread is the great equalizer. While Atlanta hasn’t been winning many of these road tilts, they’ve sure been hanging tough consistently! The numbers don’t lie. Atlanta is 6-1-1 ATS in the eight road games they’ve played since the beginning of December. The lone pointspread loss came by exactly two points. They’re 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 overall; legitimately undervalued in the betting markets despite their dismal SU record. Atlanta lost by a single point at Phoenix on Wednesday. They’ve been dynamite off a tight loss, a perfect 6-0 ATS in their next game after losing by four points or less; a team that fights (as opposed to quitting) when frustrated. Mike Budenholzer has owned Terry Stotts. Atlanta is 6-1 SU against the Blazers since 2015, winning SU here in Portland on each of their last three visits, and beating the Blazers by 15 in Atlanta last week. That loss came with a recurring theme for Stotts’ squad – lethargic defense, which has plagued them repeatedly of late. Defensive lapses are a big reason why Portland has covered the spread only five previous times in their 18 home games this season. Those defensive problems are a big reason why the Blazers are 0-fer the season when laying -6 or higher, 0-6 ATS in this pointspread range. Returning home off an East Coast swing – they’ve lost SU as favorites in their first game back following each of their last two road trips – look for the Blazers once again to struggle to win by margin. Take the Hawks. |
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01-04-18 | Houston +10.5 v. Wichita State | 63-81 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#505) I don’t step in front of Wichita State lightly, but this line is out of whack with current realities for both of these squads! The betting markets have FINALLY caught up with the Shockers; a team that has been consistently undervalued for the better part of the last half decade. That’s not the case here in 2018, where the Shockers are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten lined games, including an 0-4 ATS mark over their last four contests and a 1-4 ATS mark as home chalk YTD. When a team starts winning games consistently without covering pointspreads – like Wichita has done against Cal, South Dakota State, Arkansas State, Florida Gulf-Coast and UConn in recent weeks – it tells us that market forces have adjusted enough to make the Shockers worthy of a fade as they step up in class tonight. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars haven’t lost a game by more than four points all year. They’ve been good enough to beat Wake Forest and Providence (among others) away from home, notching road wins at South Florida and St Louis as well while losing by only three at LSU. And from a value perspective, Houston has it: 6-2 ATS in their last eight games with both non-covers coming in competitive contests. The Cougs have the defensive mindset and low post muscle to hang tough and the strong guard play to potentially steal a rare victory on the Shockers home floor…..or at least come pretty darn close. Take Houston. |
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01-03-18 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Jazz | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#721) It’s ‘stop the bleeding’ time for New Orleans after the Pelicans blew a fourth quarter lead at home against the Knicks in their last outing on the heels of a home loss to the Mavericks in their previous game. Head coach Alvin Gentry: “No one is really excited about being .500 right now. We feel like we should obviously be a lot better than that. We still have an opportunity to run off some wins and have a situation where we end up with a really good record, but we're going to have to finish games.” Utah is a team that opponents can ‘finish games’ against. The short-handed Jazz are still playing without injured defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert; a crucial absence in a matchup against the Pelicans seven footers Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Rookie Donovan Mitchell is leading the team in minutes and in scoring – never a good sign. Sharpshooter Rodney Hood is just jacking up three pointers in a disjointed offense – there’s a reason the Jazz are just 3-9 SU in their last dozen games, with seven of those losses coming by double digit margins. Coming off a huge win against the Cavs, look for Utah to be hard pressed to match that level of production against Rajon Rondo (45 assists in his last three games) and the Pelicans this evening. Wrong team favored here! Take the Pelicans. |
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01-03-18 | St Bonaventure -1.5 v. Dayton | 72-82 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Take St Bonaventure (#767) The Bonnies are 7-0 since leading scorer Jaylen Adams returned to the lineup after he missed the first six games of the season. That stretch includes a SU win at Syracuse and a 20 point blowout against UMass in their last game. UMass head coach Matt McCall, talking about the Bonnies after that game: “We played one of the best teams in the league and it was a challenge for us.” But the Bonnies still aren’t being priced like an elite A-10 squad; the residual effect of years of mediocrity from this program and a couple of bad early season losses (Niagara at home on opening night stands out). But this team was good enough to beat Maryland and Syracuse away from home. The Adams/Matt Mobley duo is as good a combo as any team in the conference has on their roster; the type of senior leaders we can trust in hostile environments. Dayton, too, still carries ATS baggage of a bygone era. First year head coach Anthony Grant has a completely rebuilt roster after graduating four senior starters, a group that won 26, 27, 25 and 24 games in their four years with the Flyers. There have been plenty of early season growing pains, particularly on the defensive end of the court – the Flyers are sub .500 heading into January for a reason, not by accident. Cheap price to lay to back the superior team in revenge after getting swept by Dayton last year. Take St Bonnie’s. |
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01-03-18 | Valparaiso v. Bradley -6.5 | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Bradley (#762) This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. Valpo has flat out fallen apart since losing to Ball State on a buzzer beater more than three weeks ago. Since that time, the Crusaders are 1-4 SU and ATS, the lone win coming against an even more hapless foe (Santa Clara). Most notably, Valpo has been consistently losing contact, getting blown off the floor, losing those four games ATS by 23.5, 20, 9 and 18.5 points ATS. Defensive effort, offensive execution, free throw shooting – the Crusaders are falling apart in all aspects right now, a ‘bet-against’ team at every reasonable opportunity. Bradley is headed in the other direction. The Braves have been a bottom feeder program in the Missouri Valley Conference for years; a five win team as recently as 2015-16. But with every starter back from last year’s squad, the Braves have already won 11 games this season, and they’re beating teams by margin, including a 19 point wipeout over conference heavyweight Northern Iowa as underdogs in their last contest. Bradley has covered the spread in every previous home game this season, an emerging trend worth riding again tonight. Take Bradley. |
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01-02-18 | Spurs v. Knicks +5.5 | 100-91 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Take the New York Knicks (#504) When these two teams played last week in San Antonio, the Spurs played just about as well as they could play. All five starters scored in double digits and San Antonio finished the game with a 28-9 assist-to-turnover ratio while hitting better than 51% from the floor. Despite that level of excellence, the Spurs covered the spread by less than a bucket, a clear indicator of the value problems surrounding San Antonio these days. It’s surely worth noting that the Spurs did not have Kawhi Leonard for that game, but they will have him on the floor tonight. The markets like Leonard’s presence, driving the line up in early betting action. But the Spurs offense with Leonard on the floor this year is scoring 94.6 points per 100 possessions. To put that number in perspective, Sacramento ranks dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 99.8 points per possession. The Spurs are just 2-4 ATS with Leonard on the floor this year. Those numbers are likely to improve long term, but for right now, Leonard’s presence does not make them a ‘bet-on’ team. It’s also worth noting that San Antonio is just 5-6 ATS coming off a loss like the one they suffered at Detroit over the weekend. The Knicks are the ultimate home/road dichotomy team this season: 15-6 ATS playing at Madison Square Garden compared to 5-10 ATS on the highway. The Spurs, too, have been a home/road dichotomy team all season: 13-5-1 ATS in San Antonio, 6-12 ATS on the highway. Coming off a confidence inspiring road win at New Orleans, don’t be surprised if the Knicks pull off another upset victory tonight….or at least come pretty darn close. Take the Knicks. |
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01-02-18 | Blazers +9 v. Cavs | 110-127 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#501) Cleveland has been favored by -7 or higher on 16 occasions this season. The Cavs are 1-15 ATS in those ballgames, consistently unable to win by margin when stepping down in class. That’s a trend worth betting blindly at this stage of the campaign, but it’s not the only reason to get down a wager on the Blazers as road underdogs this evening. Cleveland is getting point guard Isiah Thomas onto the floor tonight for the first time since he was acquired by the Cavs in the offseason. When we’re talking about a team that is 19-5 SU in their last 24 games – even though they’re not winning by margin – a point guard transition at this stage of the campaign is a short term negative, not a positive. To make matters worse, Thomas will be matched up against Damian Lillard. The Blazers have only been without their starting point guard for the last five games – I expect no short term drop-off upon Lillard’s return, especially in a ‘statement’ game like this one for the road team. The Blazers are coming off a tough OT win in Chicago yesterday, and the markets knee-jerk against any team off an OT game that plays the following night. Just a little bit of digging shows clearly that the Blazers have been a bet-ON team in this role, cashing each of the last four times they played without rest. And it’s surely worth noting the Blazers 10-3 ATS mark as underdogs this year, another trend worth riding tonight! Take the Blazers. |
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01-02-18 | Alabama +3 v. Vanderbilt | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#527) Vandy has been a pointspread disaster area from Day 1 this season. They’re 0-fer the year ATS at home and have just one pointspread cover all year, losing by only seven as 9.5 point underdogs at Florida last Saturday. The Commodores are the only team in the SEC that enters conference play with a losing record. And yet Vandy is taking heavy $$ in early betting action on Tuesday. That offers savvy bettors a prime opportunity to cash in with this ‘Wrong Team Favored’ opportunity. Make no mistake about it – Avery Johnson has put together the best Alabama team of the 21st century. But the Crimson Tide didn’t take care of business as chalk throughout December, 0-5 ATS when laying -3 or higher. The markets have devalued Alabama as a result. Away from home, we’ve seen the Tide beat BYU and Memphis, while hanging tough against the likes of Arizona and Minnesota. Frosh point guard Collin Sexton has been nothing short of brilliant thusfar, and Johnson’s got a boatload of quality depth on a team that has lacked that in the past. Take the points! Take Alabama. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | 24-6 | Loss | -103 | 104 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Clemson (#274) Clemson has been an underdog in each of their last seven bowl games in the Dabo Swinney era. They are 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in those ballgames, beating the spread by more than 120 points in the process, including outright upsets against the likes of LSU, Ohio State (twice), Oklahoma (twice) and the same Alabama team they’ll face on New Year’s Night. That’s a pretty impressive track record! if we look just at the ‘extra time to prepare’ bowl games over the last three seasons, it’s a combined victory margin of 108-23….all as underdogs against elite foes. Clemson has faced Alabama for the national title in each of the last two seasons. The combined result of those two games? Alabama by one point on the scoreboard, Clemson by more than 200 yards in the box scores. In short, they were pretty even, and at +3, I’m generally interested in matchups that are ‘pretty even’. I’m well aware that Deshaun Watson was a huge piece of the equation for Clemson's win last year or cover the year before, and Kelly Bryant is no DeShaun Watson. But Clemson’s defense is at elite as it gets, ranked among the Top 14 in the country in total defense, scoring defense, run defense and pass efficiency defense. Alabama’s defense continues to be challenged by mobile QB’s — a consistent problem for this squad in recent years -- and Nick Saban’s reputation is carrying way too much weight considering Swinney’s remarkable track record. Alabama’s fifth year seniors are just 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS in bowl games — perhaps Saban’s reputation is outshining the reality at this stage of his coaching career. Alabama’s offense wasn’t as good this year, lacking a second playmaker on the other side from Calvin Ridley. In fact, nobody else on the team caught more than 14 passes all year, and the Tide were not seriously threatened in the vast majority of their games, playing from ahead. Clemson has plenty of experience in tight, competitive contests, finding ways to win in the fourth quarter. Alabama played only three competitive games all year (0-3 ATS in those contests), without that same requisite level of confidence when it comes to pulling out tight games during crunch time. This was not a banner year for the SEC, and yet ‘Bama was overvalued all year, unable to cover lofty numbers. Their four ATS covers this year al came against disappointments: Florida State, Vandy, Ole Miss and Tennessee, not exactly a group of overachievers. My goal here is not to criticize Alabama — of course they’re elite. So is Clemson, and it’s likely to take another Dabo trip to the title game to prove that to the betting marketplace. Take Clemson. |
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01-01-18 | Bucks +6 v. Raptors | 127-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#703) (Abbreviated write-ups on New Year’s Day) NOTE: I Initially entered this play wrong – we want our $$ on the BUCKS in this game! Most of the stuff you’re going to read about ‘playoff revenge’ in the NBA is nonsense, just hyping up a matchup. That’s not the case for the Bucks today, a team that gave Toronto a challenge in the first round last year before falling in six games. Giannis Antetokounmpo: "It definitely helps us. I was talking with (Bucks guard Sterling) Brown about it and he was like, 'You guys lost the series,' but I told him we won the first game (in Toronto), we lost the second one, but at the end of the day, we learned from it. I think we're more mature as a team, we're playing better and hopefully (Monday) we can get a win against these guys because we really want it." Matthew Dellavedova: "They ended our season early. Obviously, it was very disappointing so we're going to be very focused, locked in and ready to go." Dellavedova, talking about the Bucks last two games, hard fought wins and covers against the Thunder and T-wolves: "I think the two wins definitely helps. But, it's more the way we did it, the whole team being engaged and really having to fight for both those wins." DeMar DeRozan knows what’s coming: "They're a lot better (this year). Not just with (Eric) Bledsoe. You see how much Giannis improved. All those guys. They've got a great coach in Jason Kidd. They're well coached. ... Having a guy like Bledsoe definitely helps." Expect a tight game throughout and be sure to take at least a taste of the Bucks at+200 or higher on the moneyline. Take Milwaukee. |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida v. Auburn -9.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#268) Two years ago, UCF went 0-12. Last year, they were 6-7. Now, they’re being asked to hang within single digits of a team that was one win away from the college football playoffs, despite the fact that their head coach is trying to work two jobs at once, recruiting and hiring staff at Nebraska while doing his best to get this squad to compete with an elite foe. I’m not buying that the Knights are ready to make that jump. Why was UCF undefeated this year? Simple — their Week 2 game against Georgia Tech got cancelled by Hurricane Irma. They were underdogs only once all year — at 4-8 Maryland, which tells you where this team was power rated before they started pounding patsies. In their two ‘signature’ wins against USF and Memphis to close out the regular season — both at home — this Knights defense allowed 97 points and more than 1400 yards. UCF’s star quarterback is 5-11 and weighs less than 180 pounds; not a QB I trust to make plays all day against an elite SEC defense. McKenzie Milton put up huge numbers…but not against teams of this caliber. And UCF has given Auburn plenty of bulletin board material like this, from their leading rusher Adrian Killins with his 762 rushing yards this season: “Auburn hasn’t seen any speed like we have here. So I would say they’re in for a rude awakening, because UCF football, we’re UCF fast and UCF fierce”. Killing obviously didn’t look at Auburn’s schedule this year. This team faced Alabama, Georgia (twice), Clemson, LSU and Mississippi State this year. That’s six games against teams ranked in the Top 12 nationally on defense. Those teams ALL have far more ‘speed like we have here’ at UCF. And despite facing those elite defenses again and again, the Tigers still put up huge numbers running Gus Malzahn’s offense. There’s a legitimate class difference here that is not reflected in this pointspread, and it’s very difficult for me to envision the Knights hanging tough against a focused juggernaut like the Tigers. Take Auburn
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#266) Michigan closed out the regular season with back-2-back losses against Wisconsin and Ohio State. They were blown out at Penn State and managed only ten points in a home loss to Michigan State. In short, the four best teams that Michigan faced all beat them. Make no mistake about it — South Carolina is not one of the best teams that Michigan has faced this season. And the Wolverines are primed to look very different on the offensive side of the football, where they’ve struggled all year — when the Outback Bowl kicks off on New Year’s Day. Let me start with the Gamecocks offense. Their returning QB Jake Bentley suffered declines in every category in his second year as the starter — yards per pass down, turnovers up, passer rating down. The issue wasn’t just Bentley — South Carolina’s leading receiver didn’t even average 12 yards per catch and their leading rusher gained only 517 yards on the ground. Plain and simple — the Gamecocks offense lacks playmakers. That’s why they were completely shut down against Georgia and Clemson, held to 10 points and less than 275 yards in each of those two contests. Michigan’s defense can be mentioned in the same breath as Clemson’s or Georgia’s stop unit. The Wolverines finished the regular season ranked #3 in college football in Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Defense and Third Down Defense, an impressive trifecta. Expect Gamecocks points to be few and far between in this one. The Wolverines biggest issue all year has been their offense, most notably their quarterback play. Wilson Speight was nothing more than a game manager before he got hurt. John O’Korn had serious accuracy problems, throwing three times as many interceptions as touchdowns. The only QB that showed any promise was the frosh, Brandon Peters, but he suffered a concussion and didn’t play in the second half at Wisconsin or in the finale against Ohio State. Peters is healthy now, and he’s got ‘bet-on’ quotes everywhere around him from that Michigan locker room. O’Korn: "From the first time that he went in, he’s just grown up so much. He’s really taking control of the offense, taking control of the locker room, and it’s been really cool to see." Michigan co-captain, left tackle Mason Cole:"He has a lot of confidence, the kid's got a little swagger to him. He runs around like he owns the place. And that's what you want." Jim Harbaugh is a good bully, not shy about running up scores when he has the chance. Given the Wolverines late season struggles, I’m expecting Harbaugh to keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish on New Year’s Day. South Carolina’s last win against a foe with a winning record came back in September and the SEC East is primed for some more ugly bowl results. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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12-31-17 | Washington State +14 v. USC | 71-89 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Washington State (#859) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) USC isn’t short on talent. Right now, however, they are very short on team chemistry and defensive effort. From a local source: “They rely on one guy to go off,” said an assistant coach who scouted USC this year. “And the other guys just watch.” The Trojans have allowed opponents to shoot 49.5% from the floor against them in their last five games, 39% from three point range. They’re not forcing turnovers either; bad news against a Washington State squad that relies heavily on three point shooting. The Cougars have been excellent underdogs all year, cashing at an 80% clip when catching seven points or more, an emerging trend worth riding on New Year’s Eve. Take Washington St. |
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12-31-17 | Georgia +9 v. Kentucky | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#849) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including a SU win at Marquette and a neutral site victory over St Mary’s already this season. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Bulldogs at Marquette: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M.” Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide have the size to bang with Kentucky in the paint. And make no mistake about it – even after a blowout against Louisville, Kentucky’s offensive execution is still rather limited, bad news against Georgia’s feisty defense. On New Year’s Eve, I expect to be cashing another winning be on the underrated Bulldogs! Take Georgia. |
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12-31-17 | UL-Lafayette -4.5 v. Arkansas State | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana Lafayette (#843) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) There’s a class difference between these two squads that is not reflected in this short pointspread. Louisiana is a ‘class’ team in the Sun Belt. They enjoyed a trip to Cuba in August , a strong chemistry builder that has carried over to the regular season. Bob Marlin’s deep, veteran squad has proven their mettle in hostile road environments from Day 1 this season, including SU wins and covers on the highway against Little Rock, Louisiana Tech, and Nicholls State, along with neutral site wins and covers against Richmond and Iowa. I want my money ON the Rajun Cajuns as they step down in class away from hom. Arkansas State has attracted some betting market support in Mike Balado’s first year on the job with a handful of recent wins and covers against a handful of distracted foes during the holiday season. They are not, however, playing a lick of defense, a clear problem against a focused, superior foe on Sunday. Expect the Cajuns to dominate the low post, get easy looks and hit their free throws in a game that should NOT come down to the wire. Take Louisiana. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Jacksonville (#311) Let me start with this basic premise, a premise that has been thoroughly validated by the first 16 weeks of the NFL season: At full strength, the Jaguars are a better team than the Titans. And while Tennessee beat Jacksonville by three touchdowns back in Week 2, the Jags team they faced then is a very different team at this stage of the campaign. That makes this quote from Doug Marrone stand out: “Make no mistake about it so there’s not a lot of talk about it during the week: We’re going to play to win and we’re going to do everything possible to win this game, period. I’m not even thinking about what happens beyond that. That’s the way we’re going to go about our business this week.” The Jags were no-shows in San Fran last Sunday, a rarity for a team that has stepped up rather well this season. It’s surely worth noting that they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS off their four previous losses this season, winning each and every one of those games by 20 points or more and covering every spread by a double digit margin. Two of those four wins came as underdogs, a third came as a short favorite. Now that, folks, is a track record worthy of support! Tennessee is anything BUT a confident team at this stage of the campaign. They’ve lost three straight ‘must win’ games, including a home game against the Rams last week, falling apart with the outcome very much in doubt when it mattered most — the fourth quarter. Incredibly, the Titans last win and cover against a competitive foe (not counting the bottom feeders) came back in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Mike Mularkey certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor in a ‘must win’ game as chalk against a focused foe that is the superior squad. Big Ticket: Take the Jaguars. |
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12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#307). This is what matters here. The Panthers will go into this game live for the NFC South title and a #2 seed. If they lose, they could fall as low as #5 and be on the road next week, instead of enjoying a bye. Even if the Saints get off to a big lead at Tampa, expect Ron Rivera to keep his starters in the game, because a win would mean a home game next week while a loss could send them on the road. Carolina gets back a pair of key defenders from suspension here, LB Thomas Davis and DE Charles Johnson. For a team that is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, the return of those two defenders adds a bit of swagger to this stop unit, especially considering that both guys are Georgia graduates, heading home. This defense has forced 17 turnovers during that eight game span, and they’re coming off a seven sack effort against Tampa Bay last week. But more than any other factor, this is a bet AGAINST the Falcons in a ‘must win’ game. Atlanta has a grand total of three wins by more than a field goal since September. They beat the 5-10 Jets by five points. They beat Dallas when the Cowboys were completely falling apart in the first game of Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension. And they beat the 4-11 Bucs in a ‘Ryan Fitzpatrick’ game for Tampa. That’s not exactly a track record of beating good teams by margin! Steve Sarkisian is no Kyle Shanahan when it comes to designing an offense or calling plays. Atlanta’s scoring output is a shell of what it was under Shanahan — they’ve scored just 9, 20, 24 and 13 points in their last four games, down nearly two TD’s per game compared to last year. Must win or not, the Falcons are laying more than a field goal to a team that’s better than them, a clear ‘bet-against’ situation for this false favorite. Take the Panthers. |
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12-31-17 | Texans v. Colts -3.5 | 13-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Indianapolis (#316). The premise here is simple. You can stick a fork in the Houston Texans because they are done. They’ve lost each of their last five games by a touchdown or more, the last four defeats all coming by double digit margins. Each of the last two losses has been completely non-competitive: 45-7 to Jacksonville and 34-6 to Pittsburgh. I recognize that Indy isn’t Jacksonville or Pittsburgh. I also recognize when a team has thrown in the towel….. Houston has simply had too many injuries. Deshaun Watson was a spark, but he suffered a season ender. So did JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus and D’Onta Foreman and CJ Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. WR Will Fuller has a cracked rib and hasn’t had more than 50 receiving yards in a game since October. DeAndre Hopkins — the team’s only legit threat — hasn’t practiced all week and is likely to miss the first game of his five year NFL career on Sunday. A meaningless season finale on the highway is most assuredly not a ‘step-up’ spot for this sorry squad at the tail end of a dismal campaign. We saw last week what a popular coach can do for team morale in what is likely to be his last home game when the ‘dead’ Bengals came up strong and knocked the Lions out of playoff contention. Reading between the lines of the quotes coming out of Indy this week, I’m expecting a ‘step-up’ effort for Chuck Pagano in Week 17. Unlike the Texans, the Colts have shown plenty of fight down the stretch in competitive losses like the one they suffered last week at Baltimore. Pagano: "Last rodeo. It's our last ride together. ... What better way than to go out with a win?” I expect Indy to get that victory in relatively easy fashion, a game that has legitimate blowout potential despite the Colts season long struggles. Take the Colts. |
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12-30-17 | Heat -1.5 v. Magic | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#503) The Heat didn’t lose at home to the Nets last night. They were thoroughly humiliated at home, trailing by as many as 38 points to a team that entered the game with a 12-22 record. Head coach Eric Spoelstra was not amused following the defeat: "I'm speechless about it. I don't know. We will keep on fighting and digging until we figure it out. I can guarantee you that. ... We have a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde quality to us that's extremely perplexing. Sometimes we compete at an extremely high level. You can see it, you can feel it. And then we have these games that are unexplainable." Spoelstra continued: "I wish we could get out there right now. I think the guys in the locker room feel that way. Our approach tomorrow has to feel different. It has to be different, starting with a film session and team meeting to prepare." If Miami was Dr Jekyll last night, we can expect Mr. Hyde this evening against a team that the Heat just beat by 18 points on the day after Christmas. Miami has been excellent at bouncing back off a shoddy showing, 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four tries off a loss, including outright upsets as underdogs at Charlotte and Boston. Orlando got key starters Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier back from injury in their last game, snapping a nine game skid with an upset win over the Detroit Pistons. Since winning five out of six over the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have been unable to string victories together at all: 0-4 SU and ATS following a win, with all four losses coming by double digit margins. ‘Fat & happy’ vs. ‘focused & hungry’ here! Take the Heat. |
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12-30-17 | Louisiana Tech +2 v. Marshall | 65-78 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana Tech (#595) For further reading, check out this link from a local source: https://www.wvgazettemail.com/sports/marshall_university/stakes-raised-as-louisiana-tech-visits-marshall/article_1c3dcfaf-8f9f-5eb3-b5b1-fc6389a2e227.html Expect Louisiana Tech to be as focused as it gets in Huntington this afternoon. The Bulldogs are in revenge mode against the Thundering Herd after Marshall ended their NCAA Tournament dreams last March with an upset win in the C-USA semifinals. La Tech was the #2 seed and had been 6-0 all time against Marshall, but the Bulldogs fell victim to a red hot night from three point range, as Marshall nailed 19 shots from beyond the arc in that ballgame. Don’t expect another 19 makes from three point land in the rematch – the veteran Bulldogs have held foes to just six makes per game from beyond the arc this year, stifling D on the perimeter. Meanwhile, Marshall is a good notch or two overvalued right now, feasting on the weak. And the Thundering Herd are really banged up – click the above link for details of how their limited depth is likely to be tested here. Wrong team favored! Take La Tech! |
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12-30-17 | New Mexico v. Nevada -13.5 | 74-77 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#588) For further reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.santafenewmexican.com/sports/now-it-gets-tough-lobos-set-sights-on-nevada/article_a7c6e399-ac3e-5fa4-bb90-b1f2521d28db.html https://www.abqjournal.com/1112776/mens-basketball-lobos-hope-for-strength-in-reserve.html http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2017/12/29/kendall-stephens-midst-one-nevadas-best-shooting-stretches-ever/991608001/ You wanna talk about an underrated home court? How about the Lawlor Center in Reno, where the Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS this year, 30-10 ATS in their last 40! New Mexico is playing uptempo, looking to push the pace and force turnovers. That strategy is going to lead to some big blowouts against inferior squads, like what the Lobos have done in their last three games, all at home against weaklings. But when the Lobos are stepping up in class, playing this style on the road against quality foes, they’re primed for a beatdown. We’ve seen it happen more than once already this year in ugly losses to Arizona, Colorado, Maryland – even UTEP and New Mexico State. And the Lobos are clearly going to have a problem in the paint against the Wolfpack. First year head coach Paul Weir: “One thing I know off the bat that we’re going to have to find a way to do better is rebound the basketball. They’re just physical. They’re athletic. They’re going to be a problem on the glass.” Nevada is really good, a bet-on team all the way right now, the class of the Mountain West Conference this year, and a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting marketplace. Expect their conference home opener to be a one-sided affair, a beatdown just waiting for the opening tip. Take Nevada. |
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12-30-17 | St. Mary's v. BYU UNDER 140.5 | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Take BYU – St Mary’s UNDER (#619-620) For further reading, check out this links from a local source: http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/basketball/men/byu-men-s-hoops-cougars-and-gaels-will-have-similar/article_9ade56e0-56ea-538d-9371-e24b8eb009c3.html St Mary’s is anything BUT a ‘push the tempo’ type of squad in the Randy Bennett era, a team that relies on feisty defense and a slow paced, patient halfcourt offense for their success. That’s worked repeatedly against BYU, including a 3-0 SU and ATS sweep against the Cougars last year. The final two games were both totaled in a similar range to what we’ve got today: 141 and 140.5. Those games produced 131 and 127 points, both staying Under the total by double digit margins. BYU spent most of the first 12 years under Dave Rose doing the exact opposite, pushing the pace at every opportunity. This year is different, as clearly evidenced by these quotes (and their 6-2 mark to the Under in their last eight ballgames): Leading scorer Yoeli Childs: “They’re going to come out and see a totally different team. A team that shares the ball a little bit better and plays with a better pace. I think that we’ve worked really hard, especially on the defensive end, at being able to guard what they do.” Second leading scorer Elijah Bryant: “During the summer we’ve kind of taken a different approach and focused on defense to be able to win those low-scoring games. That’s what Saint Mary’s does. Their pace is one of the lowest in the country, and we’re ready for that.” This total is lined exactly where it was last year, but we can expect a much slower pace from BYU and much more defensive intensity. Take the Under |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State UNDER 55 | 28-35 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Penn State - Washington UNDER (#261-262). My premise here is two-fold. First, the loss of Joe Morehead matters for Penn State. Second, Washington’s defense is truly elite but their offense is not. Let’s start with #2 first. Away from home, Washington faced two bowl teams this year, Arizona State and Stanford. They scored just 29 points in those two games combined. Washington has a handful of offensive playmakers, most notably RB Myles Gaskin and WR/KR Dante Pettis. What the Huskies did not have — and have not had — is elite QB play with Jake Browning behind center. In two ‘step-up’ games vs quality defenses last year, Browning was terrible both times, unable to move the offense in ugly losses vs USC and Alabama. This year was more of the same - lots of big numbers against weak defensive foes, but not much production in their few 'step up in class' games. I do not trust this offense to put up points in bunches here. But I sure do trust this Huskies defense, a unit with loads of future NFL talent and plenty of swagger to their step. We’re talking about a team that allowed more than 16 points only three times all year, despite facing a steady diet of high octane PAC-12 foes. Penn State’s offense was brilliantly called all year, a HUGE part of their big numbers. After more than a month off, without Morehead keeping defenses off balance, facing an elite stop unit, I do NOT expect the Nittany Lions to march up and down the field. This quote stands out, even though it’s from a different team in a different game. Here’s what Missouri defensive end Marcell Frazier had to say after the Tigers offense was stymied in their bowl loss to Texas after putting up huge numbers for the previous two months, talking about the offensive coordinator and OL coach that skipped town for new jobs:"Realistically, Heupel left us in a bad position. It is what it is. And Elarbee left us in a bad position. As men they have to look in the mirror. They let a whole bunch of teenage boys down, 18- and 19-year-olds. They left and they have to do what's best for their family, but I think it showed up a little bit today. We were doing things [on offense] we haven't done since maybe the Auburn game. It showed up. We practiced for almost a whole month without an O-coordinator or an O-line coach after having one of the most dominating offenses in the nation. It's tough.” Take the UNDER. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis OVER 65.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Memphis - Iowa State OVER (#259-260). Memphis is a ‘dead nuts’ Over team, 9-3 to the Over this season. The Tigers play fast, averaging more than 75 offensive plays per game. They have a bevy of skill position talent starting with senior QB Riley Ferguson, who threw for more than 3900 yards at 9.0 yards per attempt with 36 TD strikes. The Tigers run a balanced spread attack, capable of running or throwing on any down. And they’ve moved the football against EVERYBODY, held under 30 points only once all season. Iowa State has faced a handful of spread offenses with strong QB play this season. They haven’t stopped any of them, lit up for more than 500 yards against both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, while allowing 11 touchdowns in those two games. Riley Ferguson isn’t Mason Rudolph or Baker Mayfield when it comes to NFL potential, but don’t sell the Tigers QB short against this caliber of defense. I expect Memphis to get into the 30’s here. The reason Memphis lost twice to UCF this year was on the defensive side of the football, a mediocre stop unit on a good day; lacking both size and speed. That’s a problem against the Cyclones trio of big receivers, with their top three pass catchers all standing 6-4 or taller. Iowa State has all kinds of depth and versatility in their receiving corps, with seven guys catching at least 25 balls, and their offense is balanced with David Montgomery’s strong legs in the running game. Don’t expect many stops in this one, and look for the red zone opportunities for BOTH teams to result in touchdowns, not field goals. Take the Over. |
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12-29-17 | Utah v. Oregon -10 | 66-56 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Oregon (#850) For additional reading check out these two local sources: http://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2017/12/28/utes-will-be-short-handed-as-they-open-pac-12-mens-basketball-play-in-the-northwest/ http://registerguard.com/rg/sports/basketball/36288224-61/oregon-ducks-basketball-not-improving-as-quickly-as-dana-altman-hoped-heading-into-pac-12-play.html.csp# To say that Dana Altman has owned Larry Krystkowiak is something of an understatement. Oregon swept two meetings against Utah last year, both SU and ATS. They won and covered all three games against the Utes in 2016 and won and covered both meetings in 2015; a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS vs. Utah over the past three seasons. And there’s little reason to expect a different result tonight! Utah is really banged up right now. Leading scorer, senior David Collette is hurt. Leading three point shooter, senior Gabe Bealer, is hurt as well. Neither guy will be at 100% if they suit up at all. Frosh forward Donnie Tillman has been their best scorer off the bench. He’s out for sure, along with Chris Seeley. Utah has lost both previous road games (BYU and Butler) by double digit margins. Coach Krystkowiak: “Sometimes I think if you have a group of guys that you’ve been fortunate enough to coach for two or three years, there can be a little bit more gray area and you rely on your players to make plays and not have turnovers and kind of understand each other. I still think there’s enough newness with the roster that we have right now [that] within that gray area we were finding some mistakes.” Oregon is young, the type of team we can expect to improve gradually as the season progresses. But they’re good enough to support right now; playing elite level defense, hitting their free throws and capable of winning their PAC-12 home opener by a double digit margin tonight. Quack Quack! Take the Ducks. |
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12-29-17 | Nets v. Heat -6.5 | 111-87 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#812) When Joel Embiid sits in Philly, the markets react accordingly – he’s an impact player on both ends of the court. But for whatever reason, the betting markets aren’t as excited by Hassan Whiteside’s ‘in or out’ status for Miami, despite the fact that Whiteside is every bit the impact player that Embiid is! Whiteside missed 12 games before returning to face Orlando earlier in the week. Lo and behold, the Heat won by 18, their biggest margin of victory at home all year. Yet the markets have yawned on his presence. Underrated point guard Goran Dragic is a similar story, now back in the lineup after missing three games last week. Rested and ready – only one game since the 23rd – I’m expecting Whiteside and Dragic to be impact players tonight for a Miami team showing signs of success in the favorite’s role. The Nets aren’t playing with a full roster either – their top two point guards are out long term, Jahlil Okafor won’t suit up until January and sharpshooter Caris LeVert is banged up, very questionable to play this evening. What’s left is a hodgepodge of mismatched role players who aren’t particularly involved on the defensive end of the court. That’s why the Nets are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight ballgames despite hot shooting from the perimeter. They’ve averaged 15 makes per game while shooting 40% from beyond the arc in their last five contests, yet they’ve still only won once and covered twice during that span. Playing their third game in four nights, look for the Nets to be hard pressed to match Miami’s energy level or execution here. Expect a comfortable win for the home favorite. Take the Heat. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Washington State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 198 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#277) This is not a good fundamental matchup for the Washington State Cougars. And considering how high the Cougars hopes were heading into their Apple Cup showdown against Washington, a bad fundamental matchup is now also a potential motivational issue for the favorite in this ballgame…although I’m not convinced that the Cougars will still be favored by the time kickoff rolls around. The loss to Washington hangs as a backdrop here. The Cougars were on pace for a truly special season, pinning all their hopes on knocking off the Huskies in their season finale. But that game was as ugly as it gets, right from the opening kickoff as Wassou was non-competitive in defeat, because this offense didn’t/doesn’t work against a top notch stop unit. QB Luke Falk’s senior season can only be described as ‘disappointing’, with the lowest yards per pass attempt, lowest passer rating and most interceptions of his four years as the starter! And Falk was at his worst in late season games away from home against Washington, Cal and Arizona, all ugly blowout losses for Mike Leach’s squad. With Leach flirting with the Tennessee job before signing an extension, it’s not even clear that his focus is on the task at hand either. And we cannot forget how poorly this offense has looked following time off for recent bowls – the Cougs were held to 32 points against Minnesota and Miami combined in 2015 and 2016. Mark Dantonio, in sharp contrast, has consistently seen his teams overachieve during bowl season. Sparty missed a bowl last year – this is one motivated team for the Holiday Bowl – but they had gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their four previous bowls before running into Alabama in 2015. The Spartans were outclassed in that game, just like they were outclassed in their ugly blowout at Ohio State. Make no mistake about it. Washington State is not Ohio State or Alabama, not even close. When Dantonio’s teams aren’t outclassed, they’re ‘bet-on’ all the way. The Spartans finished the season ranked #13 in pass efficiency defense, and they played more true freshmen (13) than seniors (12) this season – these extra bowl practices really matter for Sparty. And considering the fact that this defense held FIVE different Big 10 opponents to 10 points or less, I’m expecting them to control the flow here as well. Take Michigan State. |
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 198 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#245) I keep hearing mainstream media reports talking about what a genius Gary Patterson is at TCU. There’s only one problem with that theory – facts! Patterson has had three winning seasons in the Big 12 in six years since joining the league. His track record with extra time to prepare for bowl games isn’t very good, including an 0-5 ATS Run in bowls prior to his lone recent bowl blowout, a 42-3 wipeout over an Ole Miss squad that didn’t show up. What about Patterson in big games, with titles on the line? Well, we saw TCU get bombed twice by Oklahoma this year, coming up waaaaaay short in their two biggest tests of the season. We saw TCU get beaten at Iowa State as well – a ‘Kenny Hill’ game. The Horned Frogs senior QB put together a solid statistical season, completing 67% of his passes with a 23-8 TD-INT ratio. But Hill did NOT step up in class well and all of his bad games came on the highway, to the tune of a 178 passer rating at home compared to 124 away from home. Plain and simple – I do NOT trust Kenny Hill against a Stanford defense of this caliber! David Shaw gets about one tenth of the love that Gary Patterson gets, despite the fact that he’s a better coach. How do we know? This stat stands out to me: Stanford is 12-3 ATS as an underdog in the Shaw era, consistently stepping up with strong performances against the toughest competition that they face. That includes SU wins as an underdog this year against Washington and Notre Dame, as well as a cover in the PAC-12 title game in a three point loss to USC. TCU has a 3-3-5 defense built to stop the bevy of spread offenses in the Big 12. Stanford has a power rushing attack with a big time playmaker at RB in Bryce Love; a speedster who can turn one missed tackle into a quick strike, momentum changing touchdown. And frankly, I’ve been impressed with the Cardinal QB KJ Costello, who through six TD’s without an INT against Notre Dame and USC in the final two games of the regular season. Wrong team favored here! Take Stanford. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 174 h 36 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas (#240) We’ve got a flat out ‘bet-on’ Texas squad taking on a flat out ‘bet-against’ team from Missouri. Best of all, the Tigers are the favorite and they’re taking $$, offering us the opportunity to back the superior team with the superior coach and the vastly superior talent level at an underdog price. That, folks, is the very definition of what I’m looking for when I step up with a Big Ticket sized wager. Missouri opened this season 1-5, the lone win coming against FCS competition. Four of the losses came by 18 points or more, the defense allowed well over 40 points per game during that span and Barry Odom’s short tenure with the Tigers was on very shaky ground. Missouri closed the season by going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS, averaging more than 51 points per game. Odom’s job is now safe, everyone’s happy in Columbia, and the Tigers are going bowling for the first time since 2014. The mainstream narrative is that Missouri ‘figured it out’ and that Drew Lock is a legit talent at QB moving forward. That narrative makes perfect sense….until it completely falls apart when we take a closer look. Missouri’s 6-0 winning streak went like this: They beat Idaho (Idaho stinks, finishing 4-8 in the Sun Belt Conference). They beat UConn (UConn stinks, finishing 3-9 in the AAC). They beat 4-7 Florida. Jim McElwain had just been fired. They beat 4-8 Tennessee. Butch Jones was about to get fired. They beat 5-7 Vandy. Derek Mason almost got fired, but they didn’t want to buy him out yet. They beat 4-8 Arkansas. Brett Bielema got fired right after the game. That’s a grand total of zero wins against any decent team all year. Everything Missouri accomplished came against a bottom feeder foe that couldn’t compete or was falling apart – EVERYTHING. This team isn’t just overrated – they’re wildly overrated in the betting markets at this stage of the campaign. That’s not the case for Texas! My clients and I have cashed multiple winning bets this year AND last year And in 2015 and in 2014 riding this same trend, a trend that the mainstream media hasn’t seem to pick up on. That trend? Tom Herman as an underdog! The results do not lie. Dating back to his tenure as the Ohio State offensive coordinator, continuing through his tenure as the Houston Cougars head coach right into his tenure as the Longhorns head coach, Herman has done one thing remarkably well – he steps up in class. Herman’s teams are now 15-1 ATS as an underdog in their last 16 tries dating back to 2014. Even the ‘1’ deserves an asterisk – it was a one score game in the fourth quarter and the Longhorns were playing without their starting quarterback! That stretch includes wins over the likes of Florida State, Oregon and Alabama – championship contending teams. Herman’s got both QB’s healthy and ready to go here, Sam Ehlinger the ‘playmaker’ of the duo and Shane Buechele, the better downfield passer. The extra bowl practices should help this offense considerably. But the key here is the Longhorns defense. It’s not like Texas hasn’t seen multiple spread offenses this year – the kind Missouri runs. The Longhorns have already faced Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph, among others (3-0 ATS against arguably the best three QB’s in college football this year. They’re battle tested against offenses like this one, primed to win this game in SU fashion! Big Ticket: Take Texas. |
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12-27-17 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +4 | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#734) For additional reading, click here: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-sdsu-basketball-wyoming-laramie-20171226-story.html The quotes from the Aztecs tell the story here (click the above link for all of them), with three frosh and five other Aztecs that have never set foot on the court in Laramie. Head coach Brian Dutcher knows what’s coming, after his team pulled the upset over Gonzaga at home last weekend: “I tried to set them up going into Gonzaga that our next two games are going to be brutally tough. I tried to lump Gonzaga and Wyoming together. I didn’t want them solely focusing on Gonzaga in our practices for 12 days. I’ve tried to tell them how hard it’s going to be at Wyoming.” So what did Dutcher do? He went with his heart, not with his head, letting the Aztecs players go home for Christmas. They’re dealing with winter storm warnings on the flight to Laramie, and they’ll be facing an undervalued, veteran foe with three seniors and a junior starting. The Cowboys won the CBI title last March on the heels of a 23 win season, no pushovers. Off a no-show game over the holidays vs Northern Colorado, expect the Cowboys to bounce back strong tonight! Take Wyoming. |
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12-26-17 | Utah -6.5 v. West Virginia | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 142 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#229) It’s not hard to make a case for betting on Kyle Whittingham’s team in a bowl game. The Utes have thrived in the postseason throughout Whittingham’s tenure: 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS, including wins over Colorado State, BYU and Indiana over the last three postseasons. The Utes will have dynamic starting QB Tyler Huntley rested and ready for this one after he missed the season finale due to injury. Huntley averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and was the team’s second leading rusher behind Zack Moss; a legitimate dual threat QB primed to give the Mountaineer defense all kinds of problems. And the Utes dominance on special teams – true dominance, with the Lou Groza Award winning kicker and the #6 net punter in the country – ensures that West Virginia won’t be getting many short fields to work with. That’s bad news for Dana Holgorsen’s squad, because they’ll be playing without their star senior QB Will Grier, leaving backup Chris Chugunov as their starter for the bowl game. Grier averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 162.7. Chugunov averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 120 – there’s a MAJOR drop-off from the starter to the backup. And THAT’s bad news for West Virginia because this defense isn’t primed to get many stops. The Mountaineers returned only three starters on that side of the football and it showed all year; ranked #92 in scoring defense, #104 in rush defense and #101 in pass efficiency defense. West Virginia got lit up 59-31 against Oklahoma in their season finale, one week after losing to Texas by two touchdowns as home favorites. No surprise here if that negative momentum carries forward to this bowl game……Take Utah. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -9 | 10-19 | Push | 0 | 83 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#132) We’ve got a clear ‘bet-on’ team vs. an equally clear ‘bet-against’ squad on Monday Night Football this week. Philly was sloppy last week against the Giants, to put it mildly, allowing a bottom tier Giants offense to gain more than 500 yards and four TD’s against them. Head coach Doug Pederson was not amused. “Can’t play like this and win in the postseason. Got to come prepared. And when I say prepared, I think from a mental standpoint, that emotion, that sense of urgency, that dominating swagger that you want to see your team come out aggressing with.” Veteran safety Malcolm Jenkins was not amused either: “I think each one of us needs to take a look a hard look at ourselves and be critical and evaluate where we can be better, whether that’s knowing the opponent better or knowing the scheme better. We’re going to need everybody to execute. It’s a race to get better right now.” How about veteran LB Nigel Bradham: “We don’t need nobody to tell us we’ve got to do better. We see it just like everybody else. One thing about us is we’ve all got chips on our shoulders. We want to get better. We’re going to challenge ourselves. We’ll get that corrected.” Given those quotes, and given the fact that a win here will clinch the #1 seed for the Eagles, I’m anticipating an elite team bringing their ‘A’ game on Christmas Night. The Raiders cannot be expected to match that level of play after their season essentially ended with Derek Carr’s goal line fumble last Sunday Night. Oakland won’t have left tackle Donald Penn, ending his streak of 170 consecutive starts for the Raiders. The defensive line will be playing without Mario Edwards Jr and Treyvon Hester. Starting receivers Michael Crabtree (concussion) and Amari Cooper (ankle) are questionable at best, neither likely to be at 100% if they suit up. We’ve seen the Raiders let go of the rope repeatedly on the highway this season, losing by 17 at Washington, by 20 at Buffalo, by 25 vs. New England in Mexico City and by 11 (they trailed 26-0 in that game) at KC. No surprise here if the energy to fight from behind is rather limited for this disappointing squad. There’s some chance that the Packers beat the Vikings on Saturday Night as nine point underdogs, clinching the #1 seed for the Eagles before kickoff. This quote from Doug Pederson leaves me confident that Philly will come to play anyway, saving the ‘resting starters’ thing for Week 17:”You’ve got to maintain that confidence and that dominating swagger and you’ve got to keep that alive.” Take the Eagles. |
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12-25-17 | Cavs +5 v. Warriors | 92-99 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#703). (Abbreviated write-up for Christmas Day) Taking the Cavs plus the points has been a remarkably consistent moneymaker so far this NBA season. The Cavs have been underdogs on five previous occasions this season. They are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in those games, the lone loss coming by only four points at Houston. Cleveland has been a terrible favorite and miserable ATS at home, but this is their role! The Warriors won’t be suiting up Steph Curry again this afternoon. They are 3-7 ATS without Curry in the lineup this season, including a SU home loss to Sacramento and a 15 point loss to the Nuggets in their last home game. They’ve also struggled ATS when stepping up in class. The Warriors haven’t been underdogs all year, but as shorter favorites (-7.5 or less), they’re a 33% ATS proposition — moneylosers! Playing their third game in four days against a rested Cavs squad, look for the Warriors to struggle to build any kind of margin today…if they win the game at all. Take the Cavs. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 55 h 41 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#124) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is still priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 5-24 SU in their last 29 games, especially when they’re matched up with a ‘Flavor of the Week’ like the Jaguars. But the Niners have won three straight since Garappolo took over behind center, rallying from behind in the fourth quarter TWICE last week to beat a winning team trying to clinch a playoff spot. And the Jags are as ‘fat and happy’ as it gets at this time of the year after clinching their first playoff appearance since 2007. Blake Bortles is not the better QB in this game the way he was last week against the Texans…. Take the 49ers. |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#110) I believe the Rams are better than the Titans, and deserve to be road favorites. But this line has gone through the roof and from all indications, Tennessee is coming to play on Sunday. All the value here – and there is legitimate value at the current pointspread – lies with the home underdog. I’m not going to write a bunch of negative things about LA here – this is a solid football team that has been winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway all season. That’s certainly factored into this pointspread! But now we’re talking about a very young West Coast team flying East for an early start game right before Christmas, coming off arguably their biggest win of the decade at Seattle last week. The final score against the Seahawks is a big reason why this pointspread is where it is – last week’s lookahead line was LA -3. And frankly, that result was as much about the Seattle no-show as anything LA did right. All 40 of LA’s offensive points came from drives that started in Seahawks territory. Jared Goff only generated 104 net passing yards on 22 dropbacks. Those are not ‘lay a TD on the road against a feisty foe’ type of stats, every bit as dicey as the spot for Sean McVay’s squad. Even after suffering tough losses to the 6-8 Cardinals and the 4-10 49ers over the last two weeks, the Titans can clinch a playoff spot with a win here, currently the #5 seed in the AFC. There’s certainly a level of hunger here. Pro Bowl DT Jurrell Casey: “To lose to two sorry teams like that back-to-back, I’m at a loss for words.” Marcus Mariota: “We left Nashville in first place in our division. It's not a very good feeling." Tennessee did find a spark last week with their no-huddle offense, rallying back from a 16-3 deficit at San Fran, then driving to kick what could have been the game winning FG with just over a minute left. This team hasn’t lost at home since opening day, notching five straight wins on this field. Too many points! Take the Titans. |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Chiefs | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#119) Here’s all you need to know about Miami’s mentality as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Head coach Adam Gase: “We’re still in this season. This thing’s not quite over yet…. We’ve got two games to make some strides here. Win this one and go from there and see what happens.” The Dolphins have won two of their last three, including an impressive victory over the defending Super Bowl champs. But last week in Buffalo they fell behind early on a short week in a flat spot, and couldn’t rally to catch up. That being said, they did turn a 24-6 deficit into a 24-16 final score, showing resolve in a spot where they easily could have let go of the rope. They also showed that despite some ugly overall stats (the Dolphins are NOT good in the yards-per-play department), this team is more than capable of making plays on both sides of the ball. I have little hesitation betting against Andy Reid as a double digit favorite. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, Reid’s Chiefs have been favored by -6.5 or more eleven times. They have twice as many SU losses in that role (four) as they do pointspread covers (two). Coming off the big divisional win against the Chargers last week, with a trip to Denver on deck, this divisional sandwich is most assuredly NOT a ‘bet-on’ spo t for this double digit favorite. Take the Dolphins. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida OVER 66 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 69 h 37 m | Show | |
Take South Florida – Texas Tech OVER (#221-222) The USF defense put up some strong numbers against the pass this year. The Texas Tech defense, statistically speaking, was a good notch or two better this year than it’s been in recent seasons. I’m not buying that either defense is as good as advertised, yet the stats ensure that this total isn’t going to skyrocket between now and kickoff. And given the expected pace of play in this ballgame – USF ranks #2 in the country, running 85 plays per game, and Texas Tech ranks #20 at 78 plays per game – we can expect the offenses to rule the day, not the defenses. USF puts up points in bunches, hanging 30+ on their foes nine times while averaging 41 points per game, They are balanced – a big problem for the Red Raider defense, a stop unit that allowed 56 points in their last bowl appearance – averaging 226 rushing yards and 328 passing yards per game, led by senior QB Quinton Flowers. Six different players caught a TD pass of more than 20 yards; not an easy offense to stop even for a Big 12 defense. The Texas Tech defense improved by 12 points per game, allowing 43 points in 2016 but less than 32 ppg in 2017. They were more than 100 yards per game better defensively than last year. And yet, at no point this season did the Red Raider defense pass the ‘eye’ test. Just about every good offense they faced moved the ball up an down the field against them. But QB Nik Shimonek threw for more than 300 yards per game; a multi-year starter who is very comfortable running Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. In a battle of senior QB’s who can chuck the football around, we can expect a high scoring shootout! Take the Over. |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Central Michigan (#219) At no point this season was Wyoming a good football team. NFL prospect QB Josh Allen is expected to start (prompting a three point line move for something that was already factored into the number), but Allen, quite frankly, has been a major disappointment all year. The Cowboys have shown precious little enthusiasm for travelling to a Mountain West venue where they played already this year (a game they lost by double digits). And Central Michigan’s full season stats are lying, a team that, without a doubt, is far better now than they were in September or October. I liked the Chippewas BEFORE the big line move. After a three point swing, this game is clearly worthy of Big Ticket status. Let’s start with Josh Allen. First of all, he’s not 100% healthy, even though he’s going to start. Allen, last week: “The shoulder is getting better day by day. I’ve been getting back in the swing of things with some seven-on-seven and some plays in team sessions the last couple of days of practice.” Head coach Craig Bohl: “The arrow is pointing up as far as his progression. Is he 100 percent? I don’t know if that’s quite accurate.” Even when healthy this season, Allen hasn’t come close to living up to the hype. In 2016, he threw for 8.6 yards per pass attempt and a passer rating of 144.9. This year, it was 6.6 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 124.0; a MASSIVE drop-off. What happened? His supporting cast was non-existent! Wyoming’s offensive line couldn’t protect Allen or open holes for any semblance of a running game – no RB reached 500 yards for the Cowboys. Austin Conway was the only pass catcher to nab more than 27 catches all season, and he averaged only 9.0 yards per catch. Without any legit playmakers and with a weak OL protecting him, Allen lost his confidence this year. I’m not convinced he’s going to find it here, especially after missing so much practice time (and the final two regular season games) with his bum shoulder. And another trip to Boise has generated precious little enthusiasm, in sharp contrast to last year’s trip to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Central Michigan got off to a 3-4 start, with Michigan transfer Shane Morris struggling early after earning the starting QB job for HC John Bonamego. But the senior QB found his mojo down the stretch, guiding the Chippewas to a 5-0 SU/ATS run down the stretch. That didn’t come against MAC weaklings either – Central pulled outright upsets over Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan as underdogs, winning each of those games by a TD or more. With a senior QB and a bevy of senior skill position talent around him – top WR’s Mark Chapman and Corey Willis as well as tight end Tyler Conklin are all in their final game with the program – Central Michigan has the big play ability on offense that Wyoming simply can’t match. Wrong team favored here…. Big Ticket: Take Central Michigan. |
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12-21-17 | Kansas v. Stanford +15.5 | 75-54 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#550) For more details on this matchup, read this preview from KC.com http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/campus-corner/article190994849.html Stanford is ‘head and shoulders’ better now compared to where they were at the start of the season, or frankly, at any point last year in Jared Haase’s first season on the job. Let’s be real – Stanford was a major disappointment last year, finishing 14-17 overall, 6-12 in the PAC-12 with a veteran squad. This year started out every bit as bad – a home loss to Eastern Washington; ugly blowouts away from home to Florida and North Carolina; bad losses to Portland State and Long Beach State as favorites. The Cardinal opened 2-8 ATS. But Stanford is coming off back-2-back wins, real momentum boosters for a squad that has been thoroughly devalued in the betting markets. Their defense has been dynamite of late, holding foes to 37% from the floor in their last five games. Stanford has depth and interior size, capable of banging in the paint with the Jayhawks; while Bill Self’s squad isn’t one of his deeper teams. On a one game West Coast trip right before Christmas, look for the Jayhawks to get tested in a relatively competitive game. Take Stanford. |
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12-21-17 | Celtics -3 v. Knicks | 93-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#505) There’s no need to overthink this one. Boston off a loss is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets in the NBA this season. Their only set of back-2-back losses came in the first two games of the season. Since that second loss, back on October 18th, the Celtics are 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS off a defeat, winning each and every one of those games by six points or more. Coming off a dismal second half in a home loss to Miami on Wednesday, it’s a step up spot for a team that’s been really, really good at stepping up. The Knicks are expected to get Kristaps Porzingas back in the lineup tonight, ensuring that this line isn’t going to skyrocket between now and the opening tip. They’ve played fine without Porzingas of late, notching four straight wins prior to an ugly loss at Charlotte on Wednesday. But the Knicks have been living on hot three point shooting, better than 40% over their last five games. Boston’s defense on the perimeter is as good as any in the NBA, as clearly evidenced by their first meeting with the Knicks this season. That game was a 110-89 blowout that saw New York make just one three pointer for the entire contest….. Take the Celtics. |
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12-20-17 | Pacers -4 v. Hawks | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#705) The Hawks are not a team with any significant home court edge these days, just 4-10 SU on this floor. They’ll occasionally have a strong game or a strong closeout, like they did against the injury riddled Heat on Monday Night. But in recent weeks, we’ve seen the Nets win o this floor by 20, the Raptors by 34 and the Clippers by 13. And coming off a win, the Hawks have been a clear ‘bet-against’, 0-6 SU in this role with only two of those defeats coming by single digit margins. Opposing teams are getting healthy offensively against Atlanta’s shoddy defense. They’ve allowed just shy of 50% shooting over their last eight games, with five opponents hanging at least 110 on Mike Budenholzer’s squad. Last time out, the Heat were without their starting point guard and two other starters, including their top creator from the wing, James Johnson. They still hung 104 on Atlanta and were in position to steal the game at the end. The Pacers have been an undervalued commodity from Day 1 this year, 19-12 ATS despite suffering three SU losses in their last four ballgames, including a one point heartbreaker on the second night of back-2-backs against the Celtics on Monday. Victor Oladipo is the type of emerging star that Mike Budenholzer can only dream of right now. The Myles Turner/Domantas Sabonis low post duo have been outstanding. Lance Stephenson’s energy off the bench has been a legitimate difference maker. Bojan Bogdanovic is raining three’s. Darren Collison has a 4.0 assist-to-turnover ratio at the point. In short, despite low expectations, there’s nothing fraudulent about the Pacers early season success. They’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven tries off a loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. I expect them to bounce back strong off Monday’s loss with a comfortable road win tonight. Take the Pacers. |
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12-20-17 | Raptors -2.5 v. Hornets | 129-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#701) Everything broke right for the Hornets on Monday Night as they snapped their losing streak with a win over the Knicks. New York was shorthanded and was flat from the opening tip. Charlotte got huge games from role players Frank Kaminsky, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams. Charlotte’s weak bench had a big night and New York’s weak guard play couldn’t stop Charlotte from penetrating the lane for easy buckets. That was Monday. Toronto presents a much tougher challenge for the Hornets, especially given Charlotte’s lack of home court edge these days. Let’s not forget that prior to the win over the Knicks, Charlotte had lost five straight on this floor, 0-5 ATS in defeat. We should note that the Hornets have been miserable off a win – their last two game winning streak (SU or ATS) came before Thanksgiving! Nor should we forget what happened when the Hornets matched up with Toronto last month; a game where the Raptors had 71 points at halftime, cruising to victory because the Hornets couldn’t stop Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan from penetrating and creating good looks in the paint. Toronto is clicking on all cylinders now, racking up nine wins in their last ten ballgames. Dwayne Casey has tweaked his offense, looking to push the pace and create more balanced scoring, not just their All Star guards. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan: "(The new offense is) coming along well. We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing”. I concur! Take the Raptors. |
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12-19-17 | Cavs v. Bucks OVER 216.5 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Cleveland OVER (#505-506) These two teams have played twice already this season, cashing Over bets both times. The Cavs have dissected the Bucks defense like so many others that they face – without trouble, hanging 124 and 116 on Milwaukee in those two meetings. And frankly, most teams are scoring on the Bucks without too much trouble these days – they’ve allowed 115+ in each of their last three contests, with opponents hitting better than 48% of their shots against Jason Kidd’s squad in their last five games. Milwaukee didn’t have point guard Eric Bledsoe on the roster in those first two meetings. With him in the lineup, their offensive production has been transformed without a dramatic increase in their pace of play. The result of that? Milwaukee has now scored 100+ in 12 straight games, 10-1-1 to the Over during that span. That’s an ongoing trend that has gotten zero publicity and is attracting no betting market attention because it’s not about the advanced metrics -- the Bucks pace of play isn’t going through a major transformation. Here’s the kicker, the quote from Coach Kidd AFTER this run of Overs for Milwaukee: “Right now for some reason we're just not making open shots, but we've got to keep getting those shots and hopefully they turn into makes.” Against the Cavs shoddy defense (#27 in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.9 points per 100 possessions), look for those shots to ‘turn into makes’ tonight! Take the OVER. |
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12-19-17 | Illinois-Chicago v. Illinois State OVER 144.5 | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Illinois State – Illinois-Chicago OVER (#521-522) My clients and I cashed a winner betting Illinois State Over the total at BYU less than two weeks ago. Here’s a brief excerpt from that write-up: “Illinois State wants to get out and run, pushing the tempo at every opportunity. Head coach Dan Muller wants to play his style tonight, coming off a game against Tulsa where the Redbirds were able to force their opponent into playing at their preferred uptempo pace: " We got them (Tulsa) sped up a little bit. The press is going to be good for us as we get healthier and I can rest guys some more. I hope we can press more." The Redbirds followed up their BYU Over with Overs against Murray State and Ole Miss in their last two games, pulling the outright upset in Oxford against the Rebels largely as a result of their switch to an uptempo pace. This is not a good defensive team; neither is their opponent, Illinois-Chicago, a Flames team that has allowed opponents to hit 50% of their shots against them over their last five games and 56% shooting in three previous road games (all of which FLEW Over the total). Expect fireworks. Take the OVER. |
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12-18-17 | Texas-Arlington +12.5 v. Creighton | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Texas- Arlington (#729) The Mavericks won 27 games last year but didn’t get a Big Dance bid, relegated to the NIT. With a team that’s every bit as talented this year, games like tonight at Creighton really matter for UTA, a HUGE game for the road underdog. Arlington returned loads of talent from that 27 win squad, starting with their senior point guard Erick Neal and senior big man Kevin Hervey. 7 foot graduate transfer Johnny Hamilton is a nasty low post defender and the team’s third leading scorer. Head coach Scott Cross has a rotation that goes nine players deep; only Neal and Hervey average more than 30 minutes per game - this a team we can support comfortably in this pointspread range. Arlington does one thing well, where most talented mid-majors come up short – this team is downright nasty at the defensive end of the court, holding foes to 41% shooting for the season, just 39% in their last five games. That matters, in particular, against the hot shooting Bluejays, who have averaged 90 points per game this season on 51% shooting. That shooting touch has helped them notch multiple blowouts over lesser foes – three of their last four victories have come by 40+ point margins. But when Creighton has stepped up in class against solid competition – like they’ll face tonight, even though UTA is not a ‘name’ program – the results have been very different. Against Nebraska, Gonzaga, Baylor, UCLA and Northwestern – the Bluejays had two losses and three relatively tight wins. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take UT-Arlington. |
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12-18-17 | Heat -3 v. Hawks | 104-110 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#705) The Hawks are not a team with any significant home court edge these days, just 3-10 SU on this floor. In recent weeks, we’ve seen the Nets win by 20, the Raptors by 34 and the Clippers by 13 here in Atlanta. My clients and I cashed a winning bet on the Pistons here in Atlanta last week, and Detroit snapped their seven game losing streak with an easy, double digit blowout victory. Opposing teams are getting healthy offensively against Atlanta’s shoddy defense. They’ve allowed just shy of 50% shooting over their last seven games, with five opponents hanging at least 110 on Mike Budenholzer’s squad. Coming off a feisty effort in Memphis on Friday, I’m expecting the Hawks to be hard pressed to match that energy level or offensive execution tonight, even with rookie John Collins back in the lineup off an extended injury absence. The Heat have been a relatively simple handicap in 2017. They’ve been an ATS disaster area at home, covering just two pointspreads in 13 games at American Airlines Arena. But when Miami hits the highway, they’ve been consistent moneymakers, with SU wins (by margin) at LA, Utah, Phoenix, Washington, Minnesota, Chicago, Brooklyn, Memphis and Charlotte. This pointspread is low because Miami is dealing with the injury bug, expected to be without center Hassan Whiteside and playmaker James Johnson. Both are impact injuries, true. But they’ve won four of their last five – including three road games – without Whiteside manning the low post. And Johnson’s absence is at least partially mitigated by the expected return of Justice Winslow this evening. Look for a comfortable win for the road favorite. Take the Heat. |
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12-17-17 | Patriots v. Steelers OVER 53.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New England – Pittsburgh OVER (#325-326) Fact #1: Tom Brady has dominated the Steelers defense like no other team in the NFL. In six starts against the Steelers in the Mike Tomlin era, Tom Brady has a 19-0 TD-INT ratio while averaging 315 passing yards per game. Fact #2: The Patriots get Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup this week off his one game suspension. Clearly, he’s a difference maker in this offense. Fact #3: Since Joe Haden got hurt, the Steelers have allowed more 20+ yard completions than any team in the NFL despite facing Brett Hundley, Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco during that span. That trio had a cumulative QB rating of 102.2 against Pittsburgh’s defense. To put that in perspective, Pittsburgh’s defense has just made a trio of struggling QB’s look like Aaron Rodgers (103.2 QB rating this year) or Carson Wentz (101.9). Fact #4: Joe Haden is very questionable to play on Sunday, especially when we look at his quote from earlier in the week. “It feels sore, but we’ll figure it out. It’s getting there. We’re in the playoffs. We have stuff to look forward to. I don’t want to go out there half-assed and be out there hurting the team, hurting myself.” Fact #5: The Patriots defense still ranks dead last against the pass according to the Football Outsider best advanced metric stats, the #30 defense overall. Pittsburgh ranks in the Top 10 in both running and passing based on FBO numbers, and have the #3 offense overall. This offense is finally in sync, averaging just shy of 34 points per game in their last four contests. No surprise then, that the Steelers are riding a 4-0 Over run into their matchup with the Pats. Synopsis & Opinion: Neither defense can be trusted to get stops. Both offenses are as potent as any in the NFL, and neither coach is likely to slow down their aggressive playcalling with a lead, knowing what their opponent is capable of doing. The weather report is fine for a December evening in Pittsburgh. Expect fireworks! Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
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12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#323) The injuries haven’t stopped for the Seahawks defense. Already playing without future Hall of Famers Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor in the secondary and the pass rushing force that is Cliff Avril; Seattle lost two more key starters in their loss at Jacksonville last week when former pro bowlers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright went down. This is a clear problem for the Seahawks. They gave up 424 total yards and 30 points last week, while the Jaguars gained 6.4 yards per play. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s a full yard per play better than Jacksonville has averaged for the season. Seattle was gashed in the running game to the tune of 5.0 yards per carry from the Jags RB’s, while Blake Bortles averaged 9.9 yards per throw, his second best mark of the season. Without healthy bodies in the secondary or among their LB corps, we can expect the Seahawks defensive struggles to continue. That’s bad news against a Rams offense that is really clicking, off back-2-back 30+ point efforts. And don’t underestimate how much the first meeting between these two squads was an anomaly. The Rams outgained the Seahawks by more than 100 yards. They shut down Russell Wilson, holding Seattle’s QB to just 4.4 yards per pass attempt while picking him off twice. But the Rams committed five turnovers and failed to produce a touchdown in four red zone tries. I’m not expecting a repeat in the rematch. LA’s special teams units are ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse, deflating their pointspreads. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately reflect their importance. Here’s the bottom line. LA is the better of these two teams right now - -heck, they were the better of the two teams in the first meeting -- , and I’m confident they’re ready to notch a statement win on the road in Seattle against a Seahawks team living on reputation more than reality. No rush to bet this -- we could see +3's between now and kickoff. Take the Rams. |
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12-17-17 | North Carolina v. Tennessee +2 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#812) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). For additional reading, click this link https://247sports.com/college/tennessee/Article/Roy-Williams-North-Carolina-Tar-Heels-have-no-idea-of-Tennessee-Vols-basketballs-toughness-112285695 Or this one: http://www.thedailytimes.com/sports/vols-set-for-rematch-with-defending-champion-tar-heels/article_cf403cfd-f3f5-5b62-bcf3-fc5a087fee73.html The Tar Heels escaped with a two point win over Tennessee at home in Chapel Hill last year. The rematch in Knoxville has all the makings of a Vols upset. Roy Williams knows what’s coming from Rick Barnes squad today; North Carolina’s first game following a twelve day layoff, and their first true road game since knocking off struggling Stanford nearly a month ago: “You’re gonna win some games, just like (Western Carolina), when we were just more gifted. I think you have to understand that, and you have to try to prepare for the really good teams. We’re gonna face a challenge on Sunday. It will hit ‘em right in the mouth, right from the start of the game. I’m really anxious, really interested and anxious to see how we’re gonna play, because they’re gonna hit us right between the eyes, and are we gonna lay down in the floor in a fetal position and start yelling for mama, or are we gonna play basketball? I told ‘em that I think some of ‘em are gonna probably lay down in the middle of the floor in a fetal position and start yelling for mama.” The Vols are as tough as nails, and they’ve proven their mettle with wins against Purdue and NC State and a down to the wire battle with Villanova. They’re plenty good enough to pull the upset today….. Take Tennessee. |
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12-17-17 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 40 | 27-10 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Baltimore OVER (#321-322) You can take your whole season’s worth of Cleveland Browns offensive statistics and shove them where the sun don’t shine. Whatever the Browns offense was before big play WR’s Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon got onto the field, it’s a very different caliber of offense since they returned! All of a sudden, we’ve seen plenty of room to run for Isaiah Crowell: 5.9, 4.1 and 6.3 yards per carry over the past three weeks – he gained his season high in yardage last week. All of a sudden DeShone Kizer is throwing touchdown to go along with his interceptions – four of his nine TD passes have come in the last two weeks. All of a sudden RB Duke Johnson is having an impact in the passing game, with at least four catches out of the backfield in four of the last five weeks. This Browns offense is MUCH better than it was for most of the season. They’re a winless team in their home finale against a divisional rival, most assuredly a ‘step-up’ spot. And they’re facing a Ravens defense without shutdown corner Jimmy Smith and nickle/dime corner Maurice Canady, a defense that just allowed 59 points over the last two weeks in a pair of games that flew Over the total by 20.5 and 34 points. You can take your full season Baltimore Ravens offensive statistics and shove them right next to the Browns offensive stats, fully meaningless in current realties yet still holding sway over the betting marketplace. No team in the NFL has scored more than the Ravens have over the last two weeks. In their last six games, Baltimore is averaging more than 30 points per game. Flacco has been ‘bombs away’ to his receivers, hitting nine different pass catchers last week. RB Alex Collins now ranks #3 in the NFL with a 5.1 yards per carry average. Danny Woodhead has had an impact since his return from injury. Both Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin are expected to start. Wallace is still being listed as questionable in many places (deflating this total, but here’s his quote after practice on Thursday: “Man, I’m playing on Sunday, you don’t even have to ask.” When the season long offensive stats are lying, like they are for BOTH of these teams, there’s legitimate value on the Over. Throw in a relatively mild afternoon with little wind – even if we do see some light rain -- and the case for a high scoring affair is perfectly clear. Take the OVER. |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State OVER 62 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 197 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Arkansas St – Middle Tennessee St OVER (#209-210) We can throw out most of Middle Tennessee’s offensive stats. Their senior quarterback Brent Stockstill – a four year starter and the coach’s son – missed six games in the middle of the season due to injury. The Blue Raiders went 2-4 in those games, and they were held to 23 points or less five times during that span, with backup QB John Urzua throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes. Brent Stockstill returned to the field at the beginning of November. In the four games to close out the regular season with Stockstill behind center, Middle Tennessee hung at least 30 points on their foes all four times, and Stockstill compiled a 10-3 TD-INT ratio. So the aggregate, season long stats for the Blue Raiders – which totals are based on – still has a healthy dose of Urzua’s numbers, numbers that are meaningless for the purposes of this bowl game. It’s surely worth noting that Middle Tennessee has played wild shootouts in each of their last two bowl games, losing 45-31 to Western Michigan two years ago and 52-35 to Hawaii last year. There’s little reason to think that the Blue Raiders defense is going to step up with a strong effort this time around – the better offenses that MTSU has faced this year have consistently moved the football up and down the field against them. Make no mistake about it – the Red Wolves have a good offense. Blake Anderson’s squad finished the season ranked #6 in the nation in passing yards, #11 in total yards and #15 in points per game. Junior QB Justice Hansen – an Oklahoma transfer with potential NFL upside – threw for more than 3600 yards and 34 TD’s. Six different receivers caught at least three touchdowns, and the offense worked even in a ‘step-up-in-class’ game at Nebraska, a wild 43-36 shootout. No surprise here if the Camillia Bowl is every bit as wild! The short turnaround between the end of the regular season and the start of bowl season should help these two potent offenses to stay in rhythm. Stockstill, talking about the difference between this year and their post- New Year’s Day Bowl last year: “It's way better (this year). We like to treat it like a bye week. We know that we're going to take on a tough opponent, but we're excited that it's right around the corner." Take the Over. |
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12-16-17 | Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 194 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Marshall (#207) The mainstream media is going to call this a matchup of two 7-5 teams. Not Me! This is a matchup of an 8-4 team (Marshall ATS, consistently undervalued) vs. a 4-8 team (Colorado State ATS, consistently overvalued). That doesn’t change here, with the Thundering Herd catching 5.5 (as I write this) from the Rams. Marshall has been at their best all season when stepping UP in class, a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog. Doc Holliday has built a solid, winning program here, and the Thundering Herd went 10-4, 13-1 and 10-3 in 2013, ‘14 and ‘15, including a 3-0 SU and ATS mark in their bowl games. But last year was a 3-9 debacle, where everything that could go wrong did go wrong. As a result, here in 2017, Marshall sure sounds motivated to get back to a bowl game and travel to Albuquerque, as evidenced by these quotes: Tight End Ryan Yuracheck: "From a player's standpoint, it's awesome. To be able to go to a place you've never been before and play an opponent that you never thought you'd play from a conference you didn't think you'd play, that's what gets you excited to go play football. We're so fortunate to play this game and to go out to a place like that, it's special." Defensive end Blake Keller: "That's what's exciting about it. People have been places - St. Pete, Boca - but nobody has been to New Mexico. The furthest west that most of us have been was San Antonio, so now we get to go even further.” That level of enthusiasm stands in sharp contrast to what I’m seeing from Colorado State. The Rams fifth year seniors will be making their fifth trip to Albuquerque; not the landing spot they were hoping for. CSU has flat out stunk up the joint in both previous bowls under Mike Bobo, losing outright as -5 favorites vs. Nevada and as -16 favorites vs. Idaho. And Bobo’s quote is ‘bet-against’ all the way – when the coach of the favorite is complaining about time frames and distractions, it’s not usually a positive sign. Bobo: “It will be tough, because we do have finals starting not this week but next week; you’ve got recruiting going on, so it’s going to be a grind the next two weeks recruiting and bowl practices and finals. We’ve got to finish. We want to finish strong academically and finish this season strong on the football side and then we want to finish strong in recruiting for the first signing period. It’s going to be a hectic two weeks.” The Thundering Herd are live dogs in this one! Take Marshall. |
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12-16-17 | Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Iowa State | 65-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Northern Iowa (#605) (For additional reading, click here: http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/college/mens-basketball/unis-defense-hopes-to-cool-red-hot-isu-in-classic-20171215 ) The results don’t show it – yet – but Iowa State is waaaay down from where they’ve been in recent seasons` Steve Prohm’s squad has had a top 20 RPI and at least 23 wins in each of the last four seasons. But the core of that group graduated: 73% of the scoring, 56% of the rebounds and 78% of the assists from last year’s squad gone. The Cyclones are 7-0 since their 0-2 start, including a solid home win over Iowa and neutral site wins against Boise State and Tulsa. This team wants to push the pace at every opportunity. But they’ve been dealing with a barrage of injuries in their backcourt, severely affecting their practice regimen. Coach Prohm said that he hasn’t been able to run 5-on-5 drills in practice for the last week and a half because he hasn’t had enough bodies. Northern Iowa isn’t going to run with anybody. The Panthers are truly battle tested after facing SMU, NC State, Villanova and UNLV. It’s surely worth noting that Ben Jacobson’s Panthers forced all four of those quality foes to play at their preferred slowdown pace. It’s also worth noting that Northern Iowa was good enough to win three of those games in SU fashion as underdogs while finishing +12 on the boards – this team has the interior size to bang with the big boys. And the Panthers, unlike Iowa State, are finally fully healthy. Head coach Ben Jacobson: “It’s been great to have (a full roster) on game night knowing that Hunter (Rhodes) and Wyatt (Lohaus) are healthy. Even (Austin) Phyfe, after missing that week or so of games and practices. It’s been great on game day, but, more valuable — maybe six of one, half dozen of the other — on the practice floor. With Hunter being a senior, with Wyatt being a junior, we missed those guys on the practice floor. So our practices have gotten better and they’ll continue to get better as those guys get even healthier.” Wrong team favored here! Take Northern Iowa. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia -2.5 v. Massachusetts | 62-72 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#541) For additional reading, click these links: http://onlineathens.com/sports/dogbytes/2017-12-16/georgia-treks-umass-after-break-finals And http://www.recorder.com/UMass-Georgia-prev-14370920 UMass is a bet-against team today. They’re coming off their best game of the season, knocking off Providence, their second straight win following a four game skid. Head coach Matt McCall: “That’s the biggest concern. We confronted that when we got back in the gym …. For the past 48 hours everyone is telling us how great we are.” The Minutemen have been dealing with finals all week, as well. UMass is a one trick pony offensively – Luwane Pipkins is their only double digit scorer, hoisting more than twice as many shots as anyone else on the team. This is a 5-5 squad picked to finish near the bottom of the A-10, not a squad primed to pull back-2-back upsets. My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including their SU win at Marquette earlier in the month. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M.” UMass doesn’t have the interior size to bang with Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide in the paint. Expect Georgia’s defense and rebounding to be difference makers here, cashing another winning bet on the underrated Bulldogs! Take Georgia. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia State v. Western Kentucky -6 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 192 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Western Kentucky (#204) I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. Georgia State is about as weak a bowl team as you will ever find, especially in a game where the pointspread is less than a touchdown. Heading into the season, they were projected to be near the bottom of the weakest FBS conference (the Sun Belt). But their schedule was friendly – they avoided better Sun Belt teams like Arkansas St, Louisiana and New Mexico St. When the smoke cleared from the Panthers season, they had wins over these teams: Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Georgia Southern and Texas St. The ‘quality’ win in that group came against the 4-8 War Hawks. In three ‘step-up’ games against bowl bound foes, Georgia St lost by a combined 101 points. That includes a 34-10 home loss to Troy and a 31-10 home loss to Appalachian State, not exactly elite competition. Georgia State’s previous bowl experience? A double digit loss right here on this field two years ago against a bad San Jose State team. And it’s surely worth noting that their best player, WR Penny Hart, got hurt in their season finale against Idaho, with his status up in the air for the early bowl game. I do NOT expect Shawn Elliott’s first year on the job to end with a bowl victory…or even a tight loss. Western Kentucky has shown well in recent bowl games: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS over the past three seasons, the lone pointspread loss coming in a very memorable Bahamas Bowl against Central Michigan where they led 49-14 going into the fourth quarter. Senior QB Mike White has only thrown 14 interceptions in his last two seasons as a starter, a guy likely to be in an NFL camp next Fall. Taking a big step DOWN in class from the back half of their schedule, look for the Hilltoppers to control the flow, winning here by a TD or more. Take Western Kentucky. |
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12-16-17 | Virginia Tech v. Kentucky -5.5 | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#530) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). For additional reading, click this link http://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sidelines-with-john-clay/article190040579.html Virginia Tech is getting waaaaaay too much respect from the betting markets for their hot start. I understand that Buzz Williams has a veteran squad with four returning starters from a 22 win NCAA Tourney team last year. I also know that they haven’t stepped up in class yet this season, favored in every previous lined game. And the Hokies 55% shooting for the season – best in college basketball – isn’t likely to hold up against this caliber of athlete on the highway. Kentucky has held foes to 38% shooting for the campaign. They’re undefeated at home, with six of their seven victories coming by margins of eight points or more – enough to cover this pointspread. They’re battle tested, showing well for themselves in a battle against Kansas. Plain and simple – there’s a class difference here that is not respected in this short pointspread. Expect Kentucky to pull away and win by margin. Take Kentucky. |
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12-15-17 | Clippers +10 v. Wizards | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take the LA Clippers (#805) I’ve got a clear ‘buy’ sign on the Clippers right now. They’ve won three in a row, including a one point victory over the same Wizards team they’ll face tonight. Head coach Doc Rivers, following LA’s win at Orlando on Wednesday: “We're just playing hard. We don't have the luxury of talent, where we can where we can out-talent the other teams. We're just going to go out and play harder than the other team." Even without the sometimes injured Austin Rivers, the usually injured Blake Griffin or the always injured Danilo Gallinari, the Clips are not a hopeless basket case. Milos Teodisic has given the team a real spark at the point since his return to the floor. DeAndre Jordan remains a dominant low post defender and rebounder. Lou Williams is giving LA a spark off the bench that Jamal Crawford (who had that role for years) would be proud of. And make no mistake about it – the markets have adjusted LA down, way down, since the beginning of the season – this is a team that actually offers legit value at this stage of the campaign. The Wizards got John Wall back following his 11 game injury absence in their last game, but Washington failed to cover as -7.5 point favorites. This isn’t new or different for Scott Brooks team. My numbers show the Wizards with a truly dismal 5-11 ATS mark when laying points this year; just 2-9 ATS when laying -9.5 or less. That, folks, is a track record worth betting against when facing a feisty foe that has been covering pointspread in bunches of late. Take the Clippers. |
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12-15-17 | Pistons +4.5 v. Pacers | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#801) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner backing the Pistons on the road in Atlanta last night. And, from all indications, the Pistons sure look like a ‘bet-on’ squad again tonight on the second night of back-2-backs against the Pacers. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting Detroit. “The national press seems to think the sky is falling in Detroit, losers of seven consecutive games since their 14-6 start. Yes, the Pistons have struggled of late. But make no mistake about it – those struggles can easily be explained without going into full-on panic mode. Each of the Pistons last seven opponents would be in the playoffs if the season ended today – there’s no shame in losing to the Celtics, Warriors, Spurs, Wizards, Bucks or 76ers. “Four of the first five losses all came by five points or less, just games where things didn’t break right at the end. The Pistons finally hit rock bottom in an ugly blowout home loss to the Nuggets before they started this road swing. Van Gundy: “That was an embarrassment.” Expect a different offensive approach tonight. Van Gundy: “We will shift our priorities in terms of play calling. Run some things more, run some things less, not run some things. I don’t think our offensive approach has been good enough to help these guys, so you’ll see a difference there.” The Pistons did exactly what I expected them to do last night, pounding the Hawks into submission. And there’s every reason to think that Detroit is going to carry that momentum forward into Indiana this evening. Stan Van Gundy isn’t fooling around – he sent his starters back into the game last night with a 21 point lead in the fourth quarter. His quote: “It's been two weeks of hell. I said, `We're going to make sure we get this one’.” It’s surely worth noting that 11 Pistons saw double digits in minutes last night, with nobody playing more than 31 minutes, leaving them relatively fresh on the second night of back-2-backs. And it’s also worth noting Detroit’s 9-1 ATS mark as underdogs of +4 or higher this season, an under-the-radar angle that’s been cashing tickets for the last two months! Facing a Pacers team that will be hard pressed to match their energy from the huge game against OKC on Wednesday, I expect the Pistons to win this game in SU fashion…..or at least come pretty darn close! Take the Pistons. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#301) The quotes here tell most of the story. Indy is coming off a truly brutal game, losing in OT in a blizzard at Buffalo. Teams off an overtime game on Sunday playing on a short week for a Thursday Night game have been nothing short of awful: 8-22 SU, 6-24 ATS. And the Colts are most assuredly feeling the after effects of the snow bowl. Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano: “How do you feel after running in seven, eight, nine inches of snow, down after down?. It was a challenge getting on the field and off the field for us (coaches), let alone those players. It was like running on the beach in quick sand. Their legs were dead.” Colts QB Jacoby Brissett on Monday, his 25th birthday: “I feel a lot older than 25 today.” It’s surely worth noting that Brissett’s sack percentage is the highest in the NFL by a wide margin, bad news against the Broncos fierce pass rush. It’s also worth noting that the Colts have the single worst yards-per-play differential in the NFL, outgained by a whopping 1.3 yards on every snap, offense vs. defense. Indy hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since November 5th at Houston. 13 year veteran Frank Gore is coming off a 36 carry performance in the snow – a likely non-factor tonight. And Denver’s defense was thoroughly re-energized for the stretch run following last week’s dominant showing, shutting out the Jets. Broncos LB Shane Ray said it best: “This is the kind of game we expected to play against everyone, not just New York. Everybody that we play, we should beat them like this. Period.” I concur. Take the Broncos. |
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12-14-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Hawks | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#501) The national press seems to think the sky is falling in Detroit, losers of seven consecutive games since their 14-6 start. Yes, the Pistons have struggled of late. But make no mistake about it – those struggles can easily be explained without going into full-on panic mode. Each of the Pistons last seven opponents would be in the playoffs if the season ended today – there’s no shame in losing to the Celtics, Warriors, Spurs, Wizards, Bucks or 76ers. Four of the first five losses all came by five points or less, just games where things didn’t break right at the end. And most of their current struggles have everything to do with a shooting slump from their starters. The combination of Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond, Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris made only 11 shots against Boston on Sunday, then hit 7-31 from the field with 15 turnovers against Denver on Tuesday. The Pistons hit rock bottom in that ugly blowout home loss to the Nuggets. Van Gundy: “That was an embarrassment.” Expect a different offensive approach tonight. Van Gundy: “We will shift our priorities in terms of play calling. Run some things more, run some things less, not run some things. I don’t think our offensive approach has been good enough to help these guys, so you’ll see a difference there.” The Hawks are not a team with any significant home court edge these days, just 3-9 SU on this floor. In recent weeks, we’ve seen the Nets win by 20, the Raptors by 34 and the Clippers by 13 here in Atlanta. Opposing teams are getting healthy offensively against Atlanta’s shoddy defense. They’ve allowed 50% shooting over their last five games, with all five opponents hanging at least 110 on Mike Budenholzer’s squad. Coming off a feisty effort in Cleveland on Tuesday, I’m expecting the Hawks to be hard pressed to match that energy level or offensive execution tonight, even with rookie John Collins expected back in the lineup off an extended injury absence. This is a ‘get well’ spot for the road favorite! Take the Pistons. |
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12-13-17 | Portland State +15 v. Oregon | Top | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Portland State (#735) Portland State came into the season as a complete afterthought in the college basketball world. The highly influential Blue Ribbon guide ranked the Vikings as the #8 team in the Big Sky Conference; coming off a 15-16 season and starting a new rebuild with first year head coach Barret Peery, and the markets haven’t given them an inkling of respect from Day 1 That hasn’t changed, as clearly evidenced by tonight’s pointspread as Portland State travels to face Oregon in Eugene, a ‘one-way-rivalry’ game for the smaller conference, in-state Vikings. And from all indications, the preseason predictions about the Vikings were completely off-base; a team with a highly talented trio of guards that is giving opponents fits right now! Seniors Bryce Canda and Deonte North as well as junior Michael Mayhew ensure that Portland State gets good guard play every night; exactly what I’m looking for in this pointspread range. The results have been rather dramatic, despite the betting market insistence that Portland State is an afterthought. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their eight previous lined games, an under-the-radar angle that still holds ample value moving forward. They’ve won straight up as an underdog five times, including back-2-back SU road wins as dogs last week. But the most impressive showings have come when Portland State has stepped up in class. This team led Duke at halftime before wearing down late. Coach K, after the game: “We beat a heck of a team tonight. "I thought Portland State played amazingly hard and well. They knocked us back.” Butler is an elite team again this year. Portland State lost to the Bulldogs by a single bucket, a wire-2-wire cover. They forced a whopping 28 turnovers in an outright upset over Stanford. Portland State is a bet-on team and the markets have shown no inclination to make the appropriate – and dramatic – adjustment to price them correctly moving forward. Oregon is really young and waaaaaay down after Dana Altman lost four of his five starters from last year’s 33 win Final Four squad. Altman is giving three freshmen major minutes. They lost at home as favorites vs. Boise, lost on neutral floors against Oklahoma and as a favorite vs. Connecticut. DePaul took the Ducks to overtime. Last time out Texas Southern hung wire-2-wire at Knight Arena, losing by only six as 20 point dogs. No surprise here if tonight’s game is every bit as tight! Altman knows what’s coming: “It is going to be a very difficult game. I knew that after seeing them in PK80 and how hard they played." Big Ticket: Take Portland State. |
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12-13-17 | Thunder v. Pacers +1 | 100-95 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#706) The results do not lie. Indiana is a better basketball team than OKC right now, and it’s not even close. The betting markets have refused to accept that from Day 1 this season. And that, folks, is why the Pacers are 17-10 ATS this season while the Thunder are 8-18 against the spread, burning their backers $$, time after time. OKC has the star power with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony joining reigning NBA MVP Russell Westbrook. That star power has certainly affected the OKC power rating, despite their continued struggles. What the Thunder’s stars don’t have is any idea how to complement each other’s games on either end of the court. OKC has dropped in nearly every statistical category from last year. They were the NBA’s best rebounding team last year. Without Enes Kanter, they rank #11 this season. Their offensive numbers are even worse, currently ranked #23 in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and #25 in assists per game. No surprise, then, that despite the star power, OKC has ALREADY lost 14 times as a FAVORITE this season. They’ve been at their worst on the highway, 0-9 ATS in their last nine tries. This is a ‘bet-against’ team until proven otherwise, plain and simple. That’s most assuredly not the case for the Pacers, an undervalued commodity from Day 1 this year, entering tonight’s game on a four game winning streak, including an impressive upset over the Cavs, ending Cleveland’s 13 game winning streak. Victor Oladipo has put up better numbers than Paul George in his first season with Indiana. The Myles Turner/Domantas Sabonis duo at center have been outstanding. Lance Stephenson’s energy off the bench has been a legitimate difference maker. Bojan Bogdanovic is raining three’s. Darren Collison has a 4.2 assist-to-turnover ratio at the point. In short, despite low expectations, there’s nothing fraudulent about the Pacers early season success. OKC has no ‘switch’ that they are about to flip on. Right now, Indiana is CLEARLY the better of these two teams and I expect them to show it for the ESPN cameras tonight! Take the Pacers. |
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12-12-17 | Hawks +11.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#501) The results do not lie. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been lined as double digit favorites of -10 or higher on eight different occasions this year. The Cavs are 0-8 ATS in those ballgames. In 14 previous home games this year, the Cavs have covered the spread exactly twice. Yet the early money has shown for Cleveland, with Tristan Thompson expected to rejoin the lineup (although Kevin Love is very questionable). Thompson will certainly help the Cavs long term, but I’m not expecting him to be an ATS difference maker in his first game back on the floor following an extended absence. Heck, this team has only won four games out of 27 so far this season by 12 points or more, what they’ll need to cover the spread tonight. The Cavs are a clear ‘bet-against’ vs. lesser competition at home in this pointspread range. The Hawks have given the Cavs all kinds of trouble in the first two meetings this season. Atlanta won SU at Cleveland in the first meeting and covered the spread wire-2-wire in a seven point home loss in the rematch – the Cavs have already gotten their ‘revenge’. Atlanta has been excellent off a loss: 5-0 ATS in their last five tries. And they’ve been excellent catching points on the highway – only one of their last eleven road losses has come by more than eleven points. Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer benched his star point guard Dennis Schroeder down the stretch of the fourth quarter in the Hawks four point loss to the Knicks over the weekend. We’ve seen this happen a handful of times before, and Schroeder tends to bounce back STRONG in situations like this one. No surprise here if the Hawks are the ‘energy’ team this evening in a game where I expect them to battle down to the wire. Big Ticket: Take the Hawks. |
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12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati -11 | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#522) First and foremost count me as a Bearcats believer. Mick Cronin might well have his best team in his 11 years on the job, and that includes last year’s 30 win squad. This is a stable program – you’re not seeing kids transferring in and out of Cinci every year like you do at so many schools. Cronin preaches defense – last week, they spent every practice focused on that end of the floor. Cronin’s quote speaks volumes: "Our identity has got to be about playing extremely hard and being committed to getting defensive stops, and then your offense comes from your defense. Getting out-rebounded is a product of a terrible defense.” Bearcats senior forward Gary Clark: “We've got to get stops…we've been really trying to preach defense, really just getting back to getting a stop." Cinci is returning home off a defensive meltdown on the road at Xavier, followed by a late game fail on a neutral floor against Florida; a game where they committed a season high 21 turnovers and went scoreless in the last minute and a half with the score tied at 60. There’s no shame in either of those losses, two elite foes. Mississippi State might be 8-0 right now, but they’re certainly not elite as Ben Howland struggles to build a program, like so many other big name SEC basketball head coaches. The Bulldogs aren’t ready for this challenge. Mississippi State ranks #349 out of #351 D1 teams in strength of schedule so far. They legitimately haven’t played ANYBODY of consequence to get to 8-0, and they haven’t been able to put away bad teams – Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, Jacksonville State and Dayton all hung tough with the Bulldogs in Starkville. Now hitting the highway for the first time all season against a focused, hungry, defensive minded ballclub, Mississippi State is primed to get blown out. Take Cinci. |
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12-11-17 | Raptors -5 v. Clippers | 91-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#711) The Raptors are a relatively consistent team to handicap in early season NBA action. When the Raptors face a team that can stop their All Star guard duo from creating in the paint, they struggle. When they face a team that cannot stop dribble penetration from the guard positions, Toronto has had a fairly easy time winning games and covering pointspreads. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan: "(The new uptempo offense is) coming along well. We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing”. Since Blake Griffin got hurt, the Clippers have let go of the rope on the defensive end of the court. In five games without him, LA has allowed 114 points per game on 50.5% shooting allowed, giving up more than 29 assisted baskets per game. They’ve struggled to defend the paint or the three point line. And with defensive minded point guard Patrick Beverly out long term as well, we can expect those defensive woes to continue even if Milo Teodosic (questionable) gets back on the floor for the first time since October. On Saturday, the Clippers got 35 points off the bench from Lou Williams on an afternoon where Austin Rivers was hitting 3’s and both Danilo Gallinari and Montrezl Harrell had big offensive games, stealing a one point win against the Wizards. But it’s surely worth noting that the Clips haven’t won back-2-back home games since October; a team that is 5-15 in their last 20 games. LA has been a terrible underdog, just 2-7 ATS when catching four points or more. And the Raptors are 100% perfect SU and ATS on the second night of back-2-backs, including a 34 point win at Atlanta in their last try in this role. And the Raptors are relatively fresh off an easy blowout in Sacramento last night. Expect another comfortable win for the road favorite. Take the Raptors. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baltimore (#131) Ryan Shazier matters. The Steelers star linebacker is still in the hospital dealing with a spine injury following Pittsburgh’s brutally physical, ultra-intense, come-from-behind win on Monday Night Football. There’s been a notable loss in the locker room this week. Defensive coordinator Keith Butler: “(We’re) not worried about his football career, (we’re) worried about HIM.” Shazier’s absence is only one piece of the puzzle for the Steelers defense this week. Shazier’s backup, Tyler Matakevich, has been unable to practice all week, last seen wearing a shoulder harness. Cornerback Joe Haden is out again. Since his injury, the Steelers have allowed more pass plays of 30+ yards than any team in the NFL. Safety Mike Mitchell has missed two of the last three games as well, very questionable for Sunday. On a short week, off a physical game, these defensive injuries are meaningful! When the Steelers are forced to make waiver wire moves like picking up Sean Spence (a guy who couldn’t last with the lowly Colts, cut back in October) and put him in practice with the first stringers, it’s a problem. Let’s not forget that ancient James Harrison has only made three tackles all season, inactive for more than a month. These Steelers injuries are coming at just the wrong time – not to mention that they’ve got a pretty serious lookahead going for next week, with the #1 seed in the AFC on the line as they battle the Patriots. The Ravens season long offensive numbers are downright ugly. Joe Flacco is dead last in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt (counting sacks). RB Alex Collins has struggled in three straight road games, gaining only 2.8 yards per attempt on his 43 carries. But here in December, those numbers are flat out lying! Flacco might have had his best game of the season -certainly his best game since Week 5 at Oakland -- last week, finding Jeremy Maclin, finding Mike Wallace, finding Ben Watson, finding Danny Woodhead -- 10 different Ravens caught a pass. Meanwhile, Collins is up to 4.9 yards per carry and he’s punched in four TD’s over the past three weeks. The Ravens offense is pointed in the right direction; the Steelers defense in the wrong direction. Baltimore won’t have star cornerback Jimmy Smith following his season ending injury last week. But John Harbaugh isn’t short on cornerback depth, by any stretch of the imagination, with first rounder Marlon Humphrey poised to step in on the other side from Brandon Carr. John Harbaugh, talking about his rookie CB: “He is a self-starter. You don’t have to prod him really, to calm him down, because he is new to it.” Brandon Carr: “All the intangibles are there. He is smart, physical and can run. He is willing to take his lumps and he is going to be OK.” It’ll be at least somewhat easier for the Ravens secondary this week because Steelers second leading receiver JuJu Smith Shuster is out – Pittsburgh’s WR depth is rather limited these days. And it’s surely worth noting that Pittsburgh’s 26-9 win over Baltimore as -3.5 point favorites back in Week 4 was the first time either team had covered a pointspread of higher than -3 in this series since 2007, when Brian Billick was in his last season as the Ravens head coach. Laying points in this series has been an exercise in failure. Expect a tight, competitive contest that comes down to the final possession – exactly what we expect when the Steelers and Ravens collide. Big Ticket: Take the Ravens. |
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12-10-17 | NC-Wilmington v. LSU -12 | 84-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Take LSU (#524) Abbreviated write-up on a busy NFL Sunday. For additional reading click here http://www.nola.com/lsu/index.ssf/2017/12/lsu_hoping_work_on_defense_ove.html and here http://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20171209/richmonds-return-gives-uncw-boost LSU hasn’t played since November. Coach Will Wade has been running a defensive mini-camp during their downtime. Guard Tremont Waters: “I'm tired of practicing. I'm ready to get back on the court and show everybody that we've been being yelled at about defense all week and that we're going to come out and improve. We can't score on offense in practice. Everything is being scored on defense. You have to get a stop or a deflection or something like that. That's pretty much what he's incorporated into practice the last week……I feel like the team is coming together.” That’s a ‘bet-on’ quote in a ‘bet-on’ spot. Today’s opponent, NC Wilmington, is anything BUT ‘bet-on’ right now. The Seahawks won 25 and 29 games the last two years, then lost the four starters and the coach who carried them to all that success. First year, first time head coach CB McGrath hasn’t covered a pointspread yet – the Seahawks are 0-fer the season in lined games, and their only two SU wins came against legit bottom feeders. Throw in some depth issues (second article) and we can expect a blowout. Take LSU. |
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12-10-17 | Eagles v. Rams -1.5 | 43-35 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 55 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#128) Three factors are in play for me in this ballgame. First, I’m not buying the Eagles as top notch contenders right now. Make no mistake about it – Philly has been feasting on the weak. We’re talking about a squad that has played a grand total of TWO games all season against opponents that currently have a winning record. One of those contests was a Thursday Night (extra randomness on Thursday Night games, for sure) game against Carolina, a game where the Panthers were riddled with key injuries and Cam Newton threw three picks. The other was last week against Seattle. So all the impressive numbers that Philly has put up, all those blowout wins against weaklings – none of that matters in a game like this one. Philly has to step up in class, something they haven’t proven they can do. Second, I’m buying Sean McVay in big games a lot more than Doug Pederson. Pederson’s gameplan against the Seahawks last week was right out of clown college -- not trusting his QB to make plays against a quality defense. McVay, on the other hand, has shown plenty of trust in Jared Goff, and Goff has paid that trust back with wins over quality defensive foes like the Jaguars and Saints. With all the chaos in LA this week (Philly’s been there all week too, affected by the fires), coaching is going to matter a lot on Sunday, and I trust McVay over Pederson in a game where the SU winner equates to the ATS winner. Lastly, the Rams have one SIGNIFICANT edge that doesn’t show up in their statistical profile – in fact, it makes that profile worse! That edge is on special teams, where LA is ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately effect their importance. LA is the better of these two teams right now, and I’m confident they’re ready to take care of business against an overrated foe at home on Sunday. Take the Rams. |
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12-10-17 | 49ers +3 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 31 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#119) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, and there were player quotes all over the place that made these same basic points after Garappolo’s first start for Kyle Shanahan. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is going to be priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 2-24 SU in their last 26 games – a true bottom feeder. But the Niners had huge edges against Chicago last Sunday, edges not reflected in the final score because San Fran settled for field goals. But the Niners had a 23-8 first down edge and a 388-147 total yardage edge. Even their defense got re-energized because the offense wasn’t going three-and-out on every drive, on the field for a season low 36 snaps (leaving them very fresh here)! Defensive lineman DeForest Buckner: “I honestly felt like I could play another full game after that game.” Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh: “It is contagious. When the offense is moving the ball you could hear our guys on the sideline. It was the urgency at which they felt they needed to get the ball back for the offense because they were doing so well. It's a team game." Facing a Texans team that has lost five of their last six; looking the part of a passionless squad just playing out the string, look for San Fran to notch their first winning streak since Jim Harbaugh left town! Take the 49ers |
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12-09-17 | Cincinnati -1.5 v. Florida | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#807) Florida has had a rough couple of weeks and it’s not likely to get any easier today! Since their 5-0 start, Florida has lost three in a row. The first was understandable – they took Duke to the wire. But that was followed by ugly SU losses as big chalk against Florida State (-9) and Loyola-Chicago (-16.5). The biggest culprit in those last two defeats was ice cold three point shooting, just 8-44 from beyond the arc. But that’s not the only issue for the Gators right now, a team that just allowed 52% shooting from Loyola in Gainesville while struggling mightily on the glass in every recent ‘step-up’ game. This article from local sources explains what the Bearcats have been doing all week since their 13 point loss at Xavier last weekend: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/university-of-cincinnati/2017/12/08/cincinnati-bearcats-must-fix-defense-against-no-5-florida-gators/934343001/ Bearcats senior forward Gary Clark: “We've got to get stops. We were scoring late (against XU) but we couldn't get a stop to keep them from going on their runs. This week we've been really trying to preach defense, really just getting back to getting a stop." UC junior wing Jacob Evans III: "We know they're a good team that shoots the ball extremely well. We know we have to step it up on defense, try not to let them run the things they want to run, and finish a defensive stop with a rebound." Head coach Mick Cronin: "Our identity has got to be about playing extremely hard and being committed to getting defensive stops, and then your offense comes from your defense. Getting out-rebounded is a product of a terrible defense…..When you play a really good team you might not be able to take away everything, but you've got to take away something. You can't give up nine lay-ups and seven threes in a half, which is what we accomplished in our last game. It wasn't mutually exclusive to one player and it wasn't exclusive to halfcourt. We also gave them up in transition." I’m a Bearcats believer, and I love the concept of getting Cinci in a near pick em price range after a full week off following a dismal defensive showing. This pointspread is certainly reasonable….. Take Cinci. |
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12-09-17 | UAB +9.5 v. Auburn | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Take UAB (#755) This is a ‘one way rivalry’ game, with the Blazers ALWAYS getting up to face their in-state major conference foe. Auburn? Bruce Pearl’s squad isn’t necessarily quite as focused on their C-USA foe. Evidence? The last two meetings have been decided by a grand total of five points; 74-70 last year and 75-74 the year prior. Auburn is an overvalued commodity right now. Here’s why; a ‘cut and paste’ from a local source: Auburn has played some well known mid-major schools during the early part of this season. Norfolk State, Temple, Hofstra, Winthrop, Dayton and George Mason have all made the NCAA Tournament in recent years. Indiana State opened its season with a rout of Indiana at Assembly Hall. But Norfolk State and Winthrop both played without their leading scorers. Dayton played without its top three scorers from last year, as well as with a first-year head coach. The best team Auburn has faced this season in terms of where it ranks in Ken Pomeroy’s basketball ratings, Temple, won that game by 14 points at the Charleston Classic. Auburn also has a key injury to their star sophomore guard Mustapha Heron – the team’s leading scorer -- is hurt, unlikely to have an impact today if he suits up at all. And the Blazers are no joke, coming off an impressive road win at Troy on the heels of a dominating showing against Memphis. Robert Ehsan’s squad has the depth to hang for the full 40 minutes, with at least some shot at the outright upset. Take UAB. |
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12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2.5 v. Ball State | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Valparaiso (#741) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). Read this article for full details: http://www.thestarpress.com/story/sports/college/ball-state/2017/12/08/can-ball-state-avoid-notre-dame-hangover-toughest-remaining-game-up-next/935113001/ Ball State is coming off a monumental upset over Notre Dame, the program’s first win over a ranked for since 2001. Their collective heads have been in the clouds all week; attracting the type of attention that Cardinals basketball doesn’t usually generate. Head coach James Whitford talked about all the calls and texts that he and his team were getting. Then he said this: “I told the team that we played the most difficult game of our schedule obviously Tuesday and then Saturday is probably the most difficult game we have remaining for the whole year. Valparaiso is a very, very good team. They didn't play well against Purdue, and I told my team that that loss no more defines them than our loss to Oklahoma or our loss to Oregon defines us.” Whitford is right about one thing – Valpo is no joke! He’s right about another thing too – the ugly loss at Purdue earlier in the week doesn’t define them, a team that was undefeated heading into that game against the Boilermakers and primed for a strong bounceback today. Take Valpo. |
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12-08-17 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 197.5 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Boston – San Antonio OVER (#515-516) There’s a fair bit of talk in the betting world about how good these two defenses are; hence the relatively low total tonight. But I haven’t seen or heard much about how well these two teams are playing offensively right now; two ‘bet-on’ squads on the offense end of the court. The Spurs got eight different players into double digits in their 117-105 win over the Heat on Wednesday, and dished 30 assists as a team. Manu Ginobili: “The ball really moved”. Gregg Popovich: “Getting 30 assists is always wonderful….it is great to see.” Boston had 25 assists on 36 made baskets against the Mavs in their last outing, also showing tremendous ball movement and getting a steady diet of good looks at the basket. Al Hoford: “This is good. We want to keep building on it." It’s surely worth noting that the shorthanded Celtics have scored 108+ six times in their last seven ballgames; part of an 8-2 run to the OVER in their last ten contests. When we think of Brad Stevens facing off against Gregg Popovich, we don’t tend to think of ‘shootouts’, yet that’s exactly what this series has produced. Each of the last four meetings between these two squads has flown Over the total. None of those games were lined higher than 199.5, yet the losing team broke 100 in three of those four meetings. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the Over. |
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12-07-17 | Rockets v. Jazz +6.5 | 112-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#708) When Utah faced Houston just over a month ago, it wasn’t pretty for the Jazz. The Rockets scored 39 points in the first quarter and followed that up with a 48 point third quarter. They finished the game hitting 59% from two point range and 59% from three point range, making a whopping 23 three pointers. Houston is certainly capable of performances like that; as dangerous an offensive team as there is in the NBA. But I’m not expecting Utah to get rolled quite the same way in the rematch. The Rockets haven’t faced a strong defensive team in weeks – they’ve played the Lakers, Pacers, Nets, Knicks and Nuggets in their last five games, nary a solid defensive ballclub in the bunch. The Rockets have had a very easy time of it, winning all five of those games by 14 points or more while hanging 117+ in every contest. Whatever ‘value’ there was with Houston upon Chris Paul’s return to the lineup has surely dissipated. Utah is a Top 5 defensive team, despite the fact that their elite low post defender, Rudy Gobert, missed eleven games due to injury. In Gobert’s first game back, right here in Salt Lake City, the Jazz defense was off-the-charts good, holding the Wizards to 69 points on 29% shooting. Utah couldn’t match that same intensity on the second night of back-2-backs at OKC, but they still covered the pointspread nearly wire-2-wire in defeat. That ATS win isn’t new or different for the Jazz – they’ve been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. In fact, if you take away their 1-4 SU and ATS stretch right after Gobert got hurt, we’re talking about a team that has cashed at a 70% clip in their other games, just behind the #1 pointspread team in the NBA so far, the Boston Celtics. For the season, they are 11-4 ATS on this floor, including five straight wins and covers. The Rockets hung 137 on the Jazz in the first meeting (at Houston), but only one other team all year has hung more than 109 on the Jazz. Expect a tight, competitive contest and a very different Houston scoring output compared to that first meeting. Take the Jazz. |
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12-07-17 | Drexel +10.5 v. La Salle | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Drexel (#713) When the Dragons played the Explorers in non-conference play last year, the Dragons were an ugly mess of a basketball team. LaSalle jumped out to a 34-16 lead and never looked back, winning by 11. The Explorers hit 50% of their two point shots and 61% of their three point tries; the Dragons couldn’t match their firepower on their way to a dismal 9-23 season. That was then, this is now. Since opening the season 2-0 SU and ATS, LaSalle has a grand total of one pointspread cover in their last seven ballgames. They’ve been favored four times during that span, losing twice in outright fashion while winning the other two games by four and eight points – both times as double digit favorites. John Giannini’s team hasn’t shot the ball well (41% for the season), defended well or rebounded well. BJ Johnson and Pookie Powell are a two man show for the Explorers; a team with precious little quality depth. While LaSalle hasn’t won a game by enough of a margin to cover this pointspread since opening night, Drexel has shown legit signs that they’re getting better in Zach Spiker’s second year on the job. This team has much more depth than last year and they’ve bought into Spiker’s defensive mentality. The result? A handful of upsets as they’ve won four of their last seven overall (one of the losses coming by two in OT), including SU wins over Houston (at +13.5) and Rider (+5, won by 12). Expect a battle between these two Philadelphia schools tonight, not a blowout! Take Drexel. |
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12-06-17 | Illinois State v. BYU OVER 145 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Take BYU – Illinois State OVER (#547-548) Illinois State wants to get out and run, pushing the tempo at every opportunity. BYU used to play the same style, but head coach Dave Rose has been doing his best to slow the Cougars pace this season. That being said, the last time BYU faced an uptempo foe on this court, they played a 95-88 shootout against Niagara, a game that flew Over the total by more than 35 points. No surprise here if we see a similar flow tonight. Coach Rose called this matchup “worrisome” for the Cougars because of the Redbirds’ proficiency in transition and also because it falls in the middle of three big in-state matchups – off Utah State, with Weber State and Utah on deck. Illinois State head coach Dan Muller wants to play his style tonight, coming off a game against Tulsa where the Redbirds were able to force their opponent into playing at their preferred uptempo pace: "It's not only a good, quality opponent, but the atmosphere is going to be terrific. That is something that's going to be really good for this team…. We got them (Tulsa) sped up a little bit. The press is going to be good for us as we get healthier and I can rest guys some more. I hope we can press more." Take the OVER. |
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12-06-17 | Pistons +4 v. Bucks | 100-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#515) The betting markets have been excited about the Milwaukee Bucks from Day 1 this season – when the Greek Freak went into Boston and beat the Celtics. The markets got even more excited about the Bucks when they acquired a legit point guard in Eric Bledsoe from Phoenix. But the market enthusiasm for Milwaukee has superseded their actual results, as clearly evidenced by their consistent struggles in this ‘home favorite’ role. The Bucks have covered a grand total of three pointspreads in ten tries at the Bradley Center this season, and they’re just 2-5 ATS as short favorites of less than five points. In their last try in as home chalk, Milwaukee hit 49% from the floor and 35-43 from the free throw line, yet they couldn’t pull away from lowly Sacramento. The problems have been fairly consistent – Milwaukee doesn’t defend well and they don’t rebound well, two clear issues when laying points against a hungry, focused Pistons team tonight. The Pistons have been moneymakers on the highway all season, 9-4 ATS in 13 previous road tilts. As underdogs of +3 or higher, the Pistons have been nothing short of outstanding: 8-1 ATS, including a cover right here in Milwaukee last month. But Detroit is coming off three straight losses to open this road trip. They’ve got Golden State and Boston coming to the Motor City on deck. Expect a real sense of urgency from the road dog tonight in a game I expect them to win. Take the Pistons. |
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