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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-26-18 | Wolves v. Kings +6 | 118-100 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento (#720) Sacramento went into the break as competitive underdogs; 7-2 ATS in their last nine tries catching more than five points. They came out of the break with a pointspread cover as eight point home dogs against the Thunder, despite the fact that they trailed by 23 points at the end of the first quarter of that game – showing fight! Even after a five point home loss to the Lakers over the weekend, there’s still plenty to like about Sacramento from a pointspread standpoint at this stage of the campaign. The Kings young trio of DeAaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovich and Willie Cauley Stein are true building blocks. So are Buddy Hield and Skal Labissiere coming off the bench and with the likes of Vince Carter, Garrett Temple and Zack Randolph getting regular minutes, there’s no shortage of veteran leadership for this squad coming OUT of the break, even as Sacto enters the dog days of this losing season. Don’t underestimate the injury loss of Jimmy Butler on Minnesota’s mindset. Butler was everything for that team when it comes to leadership; both on and off the floor. In the first game that he missed, Minnesota faced the right team at the right team, beating up on a truly hapless Bulls squad. I’m not expecting tonight’s game to be quite as easy for the road favorites, especially given their consistent woes in this role. The results do not lie. Tom Thibodeau’s squad is 0-7 SU in their last seven road games. They are 0-5 SU in their only five tries as road favorites since the calendar turned to 2018, losing SU at Brooklyn, Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago and Orlando. I most assuredly do NOT expect an easy T-Wolves victory by margin in this one. Take the Kings. |
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02-26-18 | Magic +10 v. Thunder | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#713) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against OKC at Sacramento in their first game following the All Star Break. The Thunder led by 23 after the first quarter; yet they didn’t even sniff a pointspread cover; needing a Russell Westbrook buzzer beating three pointer just to escape with the SU victory. This isn’t new or different for OKC. Let me start with an excerpt from that last anti- Thunder write-up. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “To say that the Oklahoma City Thunder have been poor favorites is something of an understatement. The numbers do not lie. OKC has been favored by -6 or higher on 26 previous occasions this season. They have covered a grand total of seven of those pointspreads; 7-19 ATS in this role. They’ve lost OUTRIGHT as favorites to Portland, Denver, Minnesota, Utah, San Antonio, New Orleans, Dallas, Orlando, Brooklyn, New York, Phoenix and Washington. Yes, that’s more SU losses than pointspread covers when trying to lay big chalk…..” The Thunder are coming off a confidence sapping beatdown at the hands of the Warriors. They’ve shown no inclination or ability to dominate weaklings, as evidenced by the recent history of this series. Orlando has won SU twice in the last three meetings and the Thunder haven’t beaten the Magic by more than three points in regulation since January of 2015. The Magic came out of the break with back-2-back clunkers. But they’ve got Aaron Gordon back in the lineup with a couple of games under his belt, as well as Nikola Vucevic’s return after extended injury absences. And Frank Vogel’s squad has been nothing short of outstanding on the highway, 8-1 ATS in their last nine road tilts. Aaron Gordon was not amused by what happened in Philly over the weekend: "With this team, especially, we can't lack energy. If we're lacking energy, we're digging our own grave." Expect ‘energy’ tonight against a team they beat by double digits as underdogs in the first meeting. Take the Magic. |
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02-26-18 | Pistons +11 v. Raptors | 94-123 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#701) The Pistons are coming off back-2-back ugly losses coming out of the All Star Break, blasted by the Celtics at home, then unable to wake up for their early start game against Charlotte yesterday. While Detroit’s bench production stood out as a problematic issue in both games, Stan Van Gundy wasn’t willing to hang yesterday’s loss on his reserves. Van Gundy’s quote: “It's not just the bench. It's not a matter of (sending a) message. They're not playing well. (The Hornets) played with a lot more energy and a lot more intensity than we did. That was the game. And that's not just our bench or anything else. That's to a man down the line. So, let's not lay it on four or five guys -- that was a team-wide thing." Andre Drummond concurred: “There was no effort when we came out of that first quarter. The second quarter again decided the game. Honestly, this needs to stop. We can't keep (playing) games where we're down by 15, 20 before halftime and then try to make a fight to come back." This is, most assuredly, an ‘effort’ game for the Pistons. Detroit has been very good at two things this season. First, they’ve been good at avoiding strings of bad losses. In fact, the Pistons haven’t lost three in a row by double digits even once this season, worth noting considering their status as double digit dogs tonight. Secondly, the Pistons have been extremely profitable in this ‘big dog’ role; a truly impressive 13-2 ATS since Day 1 this season when catching +5 or higher. In short, this is a Pistons spot, and this is their best pointspread role, while Toronto has been struggling to close out games winning by margin. Live dog! Take the Pistons. |
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02-25-18 | Pelicans +4 v. Bucks | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#803) To say that the Milwaukee Bucks have not been good home favorites is something of an understatement. In 29 previous home games, the Bucks have covered a grand total of nine pointspreads. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from my anti-Bucks write-up right before the All Star Break, when they lost SU and ATS at home to the Nuggets: “At first glance, the Milwaukee Bucks have put together an impressive run since Joe Prunty took over for Jason Kidd as head coach: 9-2 SU in the 11 games since the coaching change. But a quick look at the Bucks schedule shows exactly why Milwaukee has been hot of late – they’ve been feasting on bottom feeders, one after the next. “The results don’t lie. During this 9-2 SU stretch, the Bucks are 8-0 against teams with sub .400 winning percentages. They’ve beaten the Knicks twice, the Nets twice, as well as the Magic, Hawks, Bulls & Suns. When Milwaukee has been asked to step up in class under Prunty, it hasn’t been quite as pretty: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS. Even the one win comes with an asterisk – they beat the Sixers on the second night of back-2-backs for Philly when Joel Embiid was sitting.” The Bucks lost at home to Denver that night, but they came out of the break with an OT win at Toronto; a statement game for Milwaukee with some bad blood between the two teams. Up next, they have a pair of showdown games on back-2-back nights in the Eastern Conference against the Wizards and Pistons. In between, they’ve got this early start tip against New Orleans. This is most assuredly NOT a step up spot for the home team, especially given their continued injury woes without Malcolm Brogdon or Matthew Dellevadova in their backcourt. Key low post defender Tyler Zeller has been laid up with the flu, no sure thing to be on the court (or to be effective) against Anthony Davis this afternoon. The Pelicans have won four straight overall, and they’ve played excellent basketball with consistency away from home; including SU wins at Utah, Boston, New York, Charlotte, OKC, Brooklyn and Detroit since the calendar turned to 2018. Coming off a true ‘refuse to lose’ double OT win against the Heat on Friday Night, the Pelicans have legit ‘bet-on’ potential moving forward. Guard Ian Clark, following that win: “We are figuring it out. I think we definitely needed a game like this." I concur. Take the Pelicans. |
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02-25-18 | UNLV v. New Mexico -3 | 90-91 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Take New Mexico (#822) There’s plenty to dislike about UNLV right now. In back-2-back ‘statement’ games over the past week, UNLV has lost in non-competitive fashion each time. We’re not talking about games where the Rebels were outclassed talent wise – they were +4.5 as San Diego State (a 94-56 road loss) and -2 vs. Fresno State (a 77-64 home defeat). Even more disturbingly, at no point in the second half of either blowout loss did the Rebels put together anything resembling a run – they just tucked in their tails and quit, both times. UNLV stunk up the joint in both contests. Against San Diego State the Rebels were -12 on the boards and committed 18 turnovers. They had 17 more turnovers against Fresno, while shooting under 30% from the floor. Let’s not forget that the Rebels shot 48% from the floor and avoided turnovers in bunches (only 12) in their first meeting against New Mexico. They still lost SU and ATS as home chalk against the Lobos. New Mexico takes and makes more 3-pointers than any team in the Mountain West. UNLV, on the ranks dead last in the conference in made 3’s. The Lobos hit ten trifectas in the first meeting, while the Rebels hit only two. This is a legitimate problem for the Rebels on both ends of the floor, especially in a VERY hostile road environment. I don’t like the quotes coming out of the UNLV locker room either – every player quote I could find talked about winning in March, and stepping up for the conference tournament. They seem to be getting their direction from Coach Menzies: “When you're going through a tough time like this, you have to step back and get clear vision and not let the emotion of the loss take you to a deep place where you can't recover….I typically have our teams playing their best basketball when that tournament gets here. That's like a whole different season when the tournament starts. I think they'll be ready to play in March for sure.” It’s not March yet, coach! Take New Mexico |
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02-24-18 | Mavs v. Jazz -9 | 90-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#510) Dallas ranks near the top of my ‘bet-against’ teams down the homestretch of the NBA campaign. It starts with this quote from Mark Cuban over the All Star Break, a quote that Cuban was fined $660K for: “I’m probably not supposed to say this, but I just had dinner with a bunch of our guys the other night, and here we are, you know, we weren’t competing for the playoffs. I was like, ‘Look, losing is our best option’. Adam [Silver] would hate hearing that, but at least I sat down and I explained it to them.” Then came the sexual misconduct allegations coming out of the Mavs front office. Dirk Nowitzki: “It's very disappointing. It's heartbreaking. I'm glad it's all coming out. I was disgusted when I read the article, obviously, as everybody was. I was shocked by some of the stuff. Just really really disappointed that in our franchise - my franchise - that stuff like that was going on. It's just very sad.” That’s one heck of a one-two punch of offcourt issues for a lottery bound foe. The Mavs were no-shows last night in LA against the Lakers, losing by 22; a game that was essentially garbage time by halftime. Playing on the second of back-2-backs in the altitude of Salt Lake City is not a ‘step-up’ spot for the road team, to put it mildly. Utah went into the All Star Break on a season high ten game winning streak. They came out of the break with a real clunker, blown off the floor in a 19 point home loss to the Blazers last night, a 20 turnover effort. Big man Derrick Favors, following the loss: "We were just making sloppy passes. It's easy stuff to clean up. We've been off for a week, so guys are going to come in kind of rusty. Just got to find that rhythm again that we had before we went off. We got it out of the way in this game, so the next game should be better." I concur! Take the Jazz. |
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02-24-18 | Gonzaga v. BYU +5 | 79-65 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Take BYU (#660) At the start of WCC play, Gonzaga was ranked #19 in the country. Since that time, the Zags have faced two teams that were capable of playing a competitive game against them – BYU and St Mary’s. The Zags split their two meetings with the Gaels. They won, but didn’t cover in a competitive matchup against the Cougars. And yet somehow, that has propelled the Zags to #6 in the country, largely because the vast majority of the other top teams play in more competitive conferences, with teams that are capable of beating them. Gonzaga’s rise in the polls and the subsequent betting market perception of the Zags is based on flawed data, plain and simple. Right now, the Zags are an overvalued commodity, as clearly evidenced by their 2-10 ATS mark in their last dozen games. BYU was tied at 59-59 with Gonzaga in the first meeting before a late Zags run allowed Gonzaga to win, although they never really sniffed a pointspread cover in that contest. BYU’s leading scorer Elijah Bryant scored only four points on 1-11 shooting, while the Cougs hit only 3-20 from beyond the arc and they STILL covered! The Cougars also hung tough with St Mary’s when the Gaels came to visit, taking them into overtime before coming up short. BYU has really stepped up their defensive effort of late. They’re getting the job done at the charity stripe. Bryant’s top two teammates, Yoeli Childs and TJ Haws, are both in excellent current form; a trio that averages more than 47 points per game, giving their opponents problems from both inside and outside the arc. And it’s surely worth noting BYU’s success in close games, including a pair of OT wins in the last two weeks. Live dog here! Take BYU. |
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02-24-18 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 89-115 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Memphis (#505) Miami is a great underdog; cashing winning bets for my clients and I repeatedly in that role all season long. But when we look at Eric Spoelstra’s squad as a favorite, the pointspread results are downright ugly. At -3 or higher this season – dating back to Day 1 – the Heat are just 3-13 ATS. Betting against Miami in this role has cashed at an 81% clip. Miami plays tight games. Every night. The results don’t lie. Each of their last dozen games has been decided by eight points or less. At home, on the road, as a favorite, as an underdog – it doesn’t seem to matter. Hence the Heat’s consistent results – they cash underdog bets, but struggle mightily in this favorite’s role. To put that in perspective, the Heat haven’t cashed a single winning bet at -3 or higher since January 3rd against (at the time) slumping Detroit. The Heat went balls to the wall in New Orleans last night, losing by a single point in double overtime. The game was extremely intense and fairly physical; tough to recover from without rest on the second night of back-2-backs after a week off. This is not exactly a ‘bet-on’ quote from Eric Spoelstra either, following last night’s crushing loss: "We have to forge ahead regardless of what emotions we're feeling. All these moments can benefit us, and I truly believe they will. We are so close to getting over the hump." The Grizzlies came out of the All Star Break saying all the right things about NOT tanking and trying hard every night. Head coach JB Bickerstaff: "We may have our shortcomings, but our effort and competitive nature are still there." Marc Gasol: “I’m not looking at the standings. I have not looked at the standings in a long time. Obviously, the season is not going the way that we all envisioned. The feeling that you have, you shouldn’t be looking at the standings. You concentrate so much on the day-to-day and just kind of resetting and understanding what you need to do and improve as a player at the same time. You still have a lot that should be enjoyed and a lot you still have to play for, so you still have to improve as a basketball player and work on other stuff.” The markets are reacting to the Tyreke Evans rib injury last night (officially listed as ‘questionable’ here), betting this pointspread up in early action. But Memphis just played five straight games without Evans before the All Star Break, cashing winning bets in competitive games at Indiana, at Detroit and at home against Utah. The Grizz are 5-0 ATS in their last five tries on the second night of back-2-backs; Miami is sub .500 in that role. Bottom line: too many points for a team that can’t lay points! Big Ticket: Take the Grizzlies. |
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02-24-18 | Washington -2.5 v. California | 68-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#595) The Huskies didn’t do anything particularly special to beat the Bears by double digits in the first meeting between these two teams. In fact, Washington was downright sloppy, committing 20 turnovers while struggling to contain Cal on the offensive glass. They still won and covered as 9.5 point favorites. Washington is coming off a truly ugly clunker at Stanford on Thursday. This team has been ‘bet-on’ all the way after lousy games. Off a 25 point loss at Oregon, the Huskies covered wire-2-wire in a double OT thriller against Oregon State two days later. Off a bad home loss to Utah, Washington responded with a 23 point blowout over Colorado two days later. And that’s just here in February! This is a team we want to support off a poor effort. The entire squad appears primed for a bounceback. Sparkplug Matisse Thybulle collected a career-high 26 points in Washington’s win over Colorado, but fouled out and shot 2-for-8 from three in a frustrating outing at Stanford. Guard David Crisp has a similar skillset, but he too was awful on Thursday, with more turnovers than made shots. As a team, the Huskies lacked energy from the opening tip. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row as they step down in class against a PAC-12 bottom feeder tonight. Since beating Stanford on December 30th, Cal has done exactly what they were expected to do – lose consistently. The Bears lost four starters and their coach last offseason, projected as the PAC-12’s worst team. With a 1-13 SU record since that win over Stanford, it’s not like Cal is loaded with confidence and energy themselves; with both offensive and defensive stats that are ugly enough to merit that record. Cheap price to lay with the superior team against a foe with very little homecourt edge these days. Take Washington. |
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02-24-18 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech -4 | 75-68 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#538) (Abbreviated write-up for this early tip) Plain and simple – this is a case of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. Louisville faced the easiest schedule in the ACC over the first half of the campaign. They’re paying for that stretch of relative weaklings now – they’ve got the toughest closeout stretch in the ACC and it’s not going well. Louisville has just been blown out by Duke and North Carolina in their last two games, part of a 2-5 SU and ATS run since the end of January. The offcourt distractions surrounding the program this week certainly haven’t helped matters. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is clicking on all cylinders: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five ballgames including confidence inducing wins at Virginia and right here on this floor against Clemson. Seth Greenburg’s team has focused on defense of late and it’s showed, holding foes to 40% shooting, 31% from three point range during this five game span. And with the Hokies bench stepping up strong of late, Virginia Tech’s improved depth is primed to wear down a Cardinals team that isn’t responding well to adversity these days. Take Virginia Tech. |
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02-23-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets -3 | 119-122 | Push | 0 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#816) At some points, the betting markets are likely to realize that this is Greg Popovich’s weakest team of the decade, especially with no timetable for Kawhi Leonard’s return. So far, that hasn’t happened, leaving us with legitimate value betting against a San Antonio team that absolutely, positively deserves to be in the underdog role in Denver tonight. The results do not lie. Let me start with an excerpt of my last anti-Spurs write-up….. when San Antonio travelled right here to the Pepsi Center in Denver before the All Star Break. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Over the course of the last decade plus, San Antonio has generally been a ‘bet-on’ team during their annual ‘rodeo’ road trip. But it sure doesn’t feel like San Antonio is about to go on a run this year. The Spurs are a sub .500 team since the calendar turned to 2018, just 10-13 SU in their last 23 ballgames. They’ve lost every single road game (in SU fashion) to a .500 or better opponent since before Christmas. In fact, San Antonio has a grand total of TWO wins all year on the road vs. .500 or better opponents. One of those wins came at Miami in the very first week of the season, the other came by a single bucket at Portland when the Blazers were slumping badly.” Even with LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup tonight, the Spurs are primed to get smacked around in Denver. Very quietly, waaaay underneath the radar, the Nuggets have knocked off the Thunder, Spurs, Bucks and Warriors as part of a 6-1 SU and ATS run here in February – beating good teams, by margin. Mike Malone gets defensive minded big man Mason Plumlee back in the lineup, with Paul Millsap expected to follow shortly. Look at this ‘bet-on’ quote from Coach Michael Malone coming out of the break: "It's just great to have those guys back. We'll figure out who plays and when they play, but being healthy with 24 games to go (is) a good thing to be." Take the Nuggets. |
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02-23-18 | Heat +2.5 v. Pelicans | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#809) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: I trust Eric Spoelstra to have his team ready in the first game following the break one heck of a lot more than I trust Alvin Gentry in the exact same spot. Look no further than last year for a prime example. The Heat and the Pelicans finished with comparable records and comparable power ratings; both lottery bound squads. But Miami came out of the break notching back-2-back blowouts (including their first game back, as a road underdog). In 2016, they came out of the break and won outright on the road as ten point dogs. In 2015, they won by 24 on the road in their first game after the break. In 2014, it was back-2-back road wins coming out of the break, including an 18 point blowout as underdogs. Now that, folks, is a track record worthy of support! And it’s surely worth noting Miami’s current 11-1 ATS run against opponents with a winning record – no ‘mediocre’ team steps up in class better than the Heat do. Miami with extra rest? How about 5-1 ATS this year, once again showing that Spoelstra is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets in spots like this one. And these Spoelstra – Gentry matchups have certainly worked in Miami’s favor, with Miami going 4-1 ATS in the five previous head-2-head meetings. New Orleans, however, covered the first meeting between these two teams, winning 109-94 at Miami just before Christmas. Of course, the Pelicans had DeMarcus Cousins for that game, and the Heat didn’t have Hassan Whiteside patrolling the low post. That situation is reversed tonight. And New Orleans also enjoyed an outlier shooting effort from three point range, nailing 15 of 25 from beyond the arc. I’m not expecting a repeat performance. New Orleans came out of the break last year by suffering a 30 point home loss to Houston, and they followed that up with a loss as chalk in their next game. They didn’t cover as chalk coming out of the break in 2015 either. Coming off three straight wins against struggling foes heading into the break (the Nets, Lakers and Pistons), I’m not expecting the Pelicans ‘A’ game here. Live dog! Take the Heat. |
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02-23-18 | Ohio State -1.5 v. Indiana | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Ohio State (#835) Let me start with an excerpt from what I wrote about Indiana prior to their loss at Nebraska on Tuesday: “Indiana has won four straight for the first time since their 2016 non-conference slate. But a closer look shows that the Hoosiers have been taking advantage of a break in their schedule – they’ve faced the bottom four teams in the Big 10 (Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers; a combined 12-52 in conference play) to earn this four game streak! Coming off a ‘hot shooting’ game in a two point win at Iowa (55% from two point range and 58% from three point range), don’t expect those Hoosiers shots to fall at the same clip against the Huskers strong defense.” The Hoosiers actually outshot Nebraska 45% to 40% in that game, but they couldn’t control the defensive glass (17 offensive rebounds for the Huskers compared to 22 defensive rebounds for the Hoosiers). Indiana notched only ten assists, compared to their 17 turnovers. Indiana is clearly good enough to beat Big 10 weaklings, but they’re not the type of team I trust to step up in class, even on senior night in Bloomington. Ohio State is still very much in contention for the Big 10 regular season title under first year head coach Chris Holtmann. His quote, talking about his senior leaders Jae’Sean Tate, Kam Williams and Andrew Dakich: “They’re the reason for the kind of year we have had. Great leadership, guys that are about doing the right stuff, good players that have worked hard to get to this point.” Tate: “We were picked to be one of the last teams in the Big Ten, and being here in the top tier is all because of that. We really love each other.” Junior Kieta Bates-Diop who just graduated and is likely to play in the NBA next year. “We just talked about in the locker room how things can cloud your judgment and thoughts. Right now, the focus is winning. Now it’s Indiana. Then it’s the Big Ten tournament, then the NCAA Tournament. We’re just trying to win games and that is what I’m thinking about.” These are ‘bet-on’ quotes all the way from a team that has won SU on the highway in B10 play at Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Iowa and Wisconsin. Ohio State is flat out better than Indiana – even Archie Miller knows it: “We have a quick turnaround now against Ohio State…. We need a group that’s really dialed in to play a team that is trying to win a league championship on our home floor.” Good luck with that, coach! Take Ohio State. |
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02-22-18 | Thunder v. Kings +7.5 | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento (#560) To say that the Oklahoma City Thunder have been poor favorites is something of an understatement. The numbers do not lie. OKC has been favored by -6 or higher on 25 previous occasions this season. They have covered a grand total of seven of those pointspreads; 7-18 ATS in this role. On the highway, those numbers are even worse. The Thunder’s most RECENT pointspread cover as road chalk of higher than -5 came back on October 28th at Chicago. They’ve lost OUTRIGHT as road favorites at Portland, Denver, Minnesota, Utah, San Antonio, New Orleans, Dallas, Orlando, Brooklyn, New York, Phoenix and Washington. Yes, that’s more SU losses than pointspread covers in this role….. I left one game out of OKC’s road losses – their previous game here in Sacramento against the Kings when the Thunder lost outright as 10.5 point chalk. That loss in this series wasn’t new or different. The Kings have hung tough repeatedly with the Thunder in every recent meeting here at the Golden 1 Center: three SU wins and a single four point loss in OKC’s last four visits. Now that’s a head-to-head matchup that works for the underdog! Sacramento went into the break as competitive underdogs; 7-2 ATS in their last nine tries catching more than five points. Their young tandem of DeAaron Fox and Willie Cauley Stein are true building blocks, and with the likes of Vince Carter and Zack Randolph coming off the bench, there’s no shortage of veteran leadership for this squad coming OUT of the break. Expect a tight game. Take the Kings. |
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02-22-18 | UCLA v. Utah -2.5 | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#610) Utah has improved by leaps and bounds in recent weeks, with grad transfer point guard Justin Bibbins finally starting to develop some positive chemistry with his teammates. The Utes have won four straight (3-1 ATS, the lone non-cover coming by a half point in a comfortable victory), sparked by Bibbins – he’s only committed four turnovers in those four games combined. And Utah has a little bit of a chip on their collective shoulders based on the results of the first meeting. UCLA was hot early, leading 19-7 four minutes into the game. Utes head coach Larry Krystowiak: “I remember it well. They had 19 points four minutes into the game, which according to my math puts them on pace for about 190 points, which would have been a new record. They throttled us pretty good.” And let’s not underestimate Utah’s home court advantage in Salt Lake City – they’ve won and covered each of their last four on this floor, with only two ATS losses in eleven previous lined home games. UCLA doesn’t force many turnovers on defense, ranked among the bottom teams in the country (#334) in turnover percentage. That’s been a real problem for the Bruins in hostile road environments; hence the SU and ATS losses at Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford in PAC-12 action. And Steve Alford’s lack of depth forced him to play three starters 40+ minutes against Oregon last weekend. Depth matters in altitude and the Bruins were (are) already a step slow on the defensive end of the court……Take Utah. |
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02-22-18 | Nets +8 v. Hornets | 96-111 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#551) Last year, the Nets went into the All Star Break with a 9-41 record, lottery bound all the way. They came out of the break and played hard throughout the homestretch of the long NBA season: 11-15 SU, 17-9 ATS, legitimate moneymakers for their backers. Here’s the quote from Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie: “I think anytime you can kind of get that mental clearance, clear your mind and just remove yourself for a second, come back and be able to re-focus, you can come back with a heightened intensity and a renewed sense of purpose. (The break) has been very good for us… We'd love to go .500 or roughly .500 or above .500 and kind of turn our season around a little bit to have a little more optimism heading into the offseason." The Nets will have point guard DeAngelo Russell back in the starting lineup for the first time since his early season injury, another motivation boost. Russell’s quote is all positive too: “I think there’s plenty of time to make the right strides going into the end of the season that can carry on into next year. I think everyone is coming on around the same time. I think the time is great for us to make something happen.” I’m expecting excellent defensive energy from Kenny Atkinson’s squad tonight after they limped into the break with seven consecutive losses. “ I think defensively we’ve slipped. That’s where it’s starts, that’s where it’s got to start for us. Charlotte has been nothing short of awful as big chalk this season. Here we are in late February and the Hornets have a grand total of three pointspread covers as favorites of -6 or higher all season. They’ve only notched two wins in the last month by enough to cover tonight’s pointspread. Both of those victories came against Atlanta. Take the Nets. |
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02-21-18 | USC v. Colorado +3 | 75-64 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#770) There’s some legitimate bad blood between these two teams, an edge that works in Colorado’s favor tonight! Buffs head coach Tad Boyle wasn’t shy about criticizing the culture of the USC coaching staff last September after former Trojans assistant Tony Bland was indicted on federal charges for bribery and fraud. Andy Enfield remembered that criticism when these two teams met the first time. With the Trojans up 12, and less than 30 seconds to play, Enfield called a time-out in a dribble-out spot to run a play for Chimezie Metu. Tad Boyle after the game: "I will say this: that was a very strategic timeout from Andy Enfield and I'm not going to forget about it, and neither will our players." Boyle was right. Buffs senior leader George King earlier this week: “We think about it. We think about it.” Point guard McKinley Wright: “I didn't grow up that kind of player. But it ticked us off, knowing those guys had the win and they wanted to draw up some type of alley-oop or some type of dunk for Metu. We didn't forget it. We're looking forward to the game...We owe those guys one." Colorado had 22 turnovers and had ten shots blocked in the first meeting, uncharacteristic of how the Buffs have played for most of the season. Boyle: “That’s 32 times we don’t even get the ball to the rim, which doesn’t give us an opportunity to make a shot, doesn’t give us an offensive rebound, doesn’t get us to the foul line. Turnovers that lead to layups, turnovers that lead to 3s are huge.” And no team in the PAC-12 has as sharp of a home/road dichotomy than the young Buffaloes. Since the start of conference play, Colorado is 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in Boulder but just 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS on the highway. That’s the type of home/road dichotomy worth noting….. USC just lost veteran leader Bennie Boatwright to a season ending injury, a legit NBA prospect and the team’s second leading scorer, rebounder, shot blocker and assist man. Travelling to altitude, the loss of Boatwright matters for USC’s depth as well as their on-court abilities. It’s surely worth noting that the Trojans went 0-3 SU on their most recent road trip, losing at UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona….. Take Colorado. |
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02-21-18 | Georgia +4 v. South Carolina | 57-66 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#705) I’ve got a buy sign on the Bulldogs right now! Georgia has endured more than their fair share of struggles, despite having arguably Mark Fox’s most talented team during his nine year tenure in Athens. But they’re coming off back-2-back impressive victories, beating Florida in OT in Gainesville, then knocking off Tennessee as home underdogs over the weekend. And from all indications, we should expect this current surge to continue in Columbia tonight. Head coach Mark Fox, following the win over a Top 20 Vols squad: “This league is a monster. And you’re going to have ups and downs. We had a couple of games where we didn’t play well. They stuck together and just kept trying to get better and play the game the right way. We didn’t make any drastic changes. We just kept doing what we do. And this week they were able to play sound basketball….. This was a quality win for us. This was a solid week. But there’s more games in front. We’ve got to get ready for the next one.” One key to Georgia’s recent surge has been the play of their low post stud Yante Maten; the only player ranked in the SEC’s Top 10 in scoring, rebounding, field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage and minutes played. His quote stands out as well: “We’re a good basketball team. We proved that this week……We’re just trying to play together, play as a team. Play defensively, try to do everything that correlates to winning……We’ve just got to focus on the next game and still play with that hunger we played this week with. Every time we touched the court this week we were really hungry, and we showed that to ourselves, to the crowd and to the coaches. So we’ve just got to keep playing hungry.” The Gamecocks won at Georgia last month despite shooting just 27% from the floor thanks to a bevy of free throw attempts and a strong presence on the offensive glass. But we’re talking about a team that is 1-6 SU in their last seven games, and just 1-4 SU in their last five at home; a shell of the Final Four squad from last year. South Carolina’s shooting woes haven’t gone away since that first meeting – they’ve shot just 36% from the floor in their last five ballgames…..Take Georgia. |
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02-20-18 | Ole Miss v. Missouri -7.5 | Top | 90-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Missouri (#532) The betting markets are making a remarkable assumption tonight, with the early $$ pouring in on Ole Miss as they travel to Missouri. The markets are saying that Ole Miss is fixed now that head coach Andy Kennedy has officially resigned, leaving the program under interim head coach Tony Madlock. I’m not buying that argument one iota. This Rebels team had won 20+ games nine times in the last eleven seasons, not a program that is used to ‘just playing out the string’ games in February. They’ve completely lost contact in every recent road game, losing by 33 at Tennessee, by 16 at LSU and by 17 at Mississippi State in their last three tries. Madlock is talking the talk: “It will be a tough game for us going on the road and of course with all the circumstances going on around the program, but I think our guys will rise to the occasion and go out and play hard.” But talking the talk and walking the walk are two very separate things. Quotes like this one from sophomore guard Breein Tyree stand out as the type of attitudes that departed head coach Andy Kennedy couldn’t deal with: “Obviously, I’m keeping my options 100 percent open because, at the end of the day, I have to do what’s best for me. I came to Ole Miss to be a Rebel. I love the university. Depending on the coaches they bring in, I’ll definitely look in. I’m not saying I’m transferring, I’m not saying I'm staying. I’m just keeping my options open.” Make no mistake about it – while Ole Miss is reeling, Missouri is coming to play tonight off their first loss in six games, at LSU on Saturday. Leading scorer Kassius Robertson said the team played ‘selfish’ in that one point defeat. Head coach Cuonzo Martin framed the loss in a positive light: “When there’s a level of comfort guys lose sight of what got you to the point of having success. That’s what happens. I think the guys will be fine.” And make no mistake about it – Missouri’s ‘A’ game is likely to be a mountain the Rebels cannot overcome. The Tigers are elite defensively, ranked in the Top 25 in effective field goal percentage against from both two point range and three point range. And with three different Tigers hitting better than 40% of their shots from three point range – Kassius Robertson, Jordan Barnett and Jordan Geist have 176 made 3’s between them – we can expect this margin to stretch as the game progresses. Big Ticket: Take Missouri. For additional reading check out these links from local sources: http://www.columbiatribune.com/sports/20180219/tigers-host-rebels-and-interim-head-coach-madlock http://www.gvnews.com/national/sports/martin-wants-mizzou-to-recapture-unselfish-play-after-lsu-loss/article_76491605-f447-58b0-9cbe-337079dfb219.html |
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02-20-18 | Indiana v. Nebraska -3 | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#528) I understand Nebraska lost at Illinois on Sunday, snapping a truly remarkable ATS hot streak. I also understand that my basic premise for supporting the Huskers during extended parts of that run hasn’t changed one iota; so I’m going to cut and paste from the same pro-Huskers write-up that I’ve been using of late, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “It’s been a sin of omission not to have Nebraska every single time they’ve hit the court for the last month. My clients and I have cashed a handful of tickets supporting the Cornhuskers, but quite frankly, this team has been as ‘bet-on’ as it gets since the start of Big 10 play; 14-2ATS in their 16 league games. “And yet we’ve seen the ‘wiseguy’ steam pour in AGAINST Nebraska in early betting action. This isn’t new or different -- $$ has showed against Nebraska on a consistent basis for most of this ATS run. The wiseguys keep fading this team and they keep losing… “I love this quote from Huskers senior guard Anton Gill, especially in a ‘win and cover’ pointspread range like the Huskers are in tonight: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” This Husker program has only one trip to the Big Dance in the last 20 years (a first round loss to Baylor in 2014), and Tim Miles has them playing like a hungry, focused team.” Junior guard James Palmer, coming off his worst game in February: "We've got to move on. We can't let one loss turn into two. You always want to play games, even if it's back-to-back. Your legs are tired, but you love basketball so you just want to play." Tim Miles, talking about getting their momentum back following Sunday’s defeat: "You need to get back on the floor. You need to compete. You don't want to sit there and feel sorry for yourself or let any of those things fall in. While the wounds are still fresh, let's get out there and battle." It’s surely worth noting that Nebraska is 7-0 this season when playing on just a single day’s rest this season, key for this quick turnaround game. Indiana has won four straight for the first time since their 2016 non-conference slate. But a closer look shows that the Hoosiers have been taking advantage of a break in their schedule – they’ve faced the bottom four teams in the Big 10 (Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers; a combined 12-52 in conference play) to earn this four game streak! Coming off a ‘hot shooting’ game in a two point win at Iowa (55% from two point range and 58% from three point range), don’t expect those Hoosiers shots to fall at the same clip against the Huskers strong defense. Cheap price to lay for the Huskers fourth consecutive home sellout crowd. Take Nebraska. For additional reading check out these links from local sources: http://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/mens-basketball/huskers-hoosiers-meet-with-plenty-to-play-for-as-regular/article_b77e3652-2089-5230-baef-515a2c7a1a10.html http://www.omaha.com/huskers/mens-basketball/after-huskers-loss-to-illinois-their-march-to-march-begins/article_0e849991-b18c-5e90-a806-8268a2b69042.html |
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02-19-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -7 | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin (#714) Minnesota has lost eight straight since their OT win at Penn State. Five of those losses have come by double digit margins, including a pair of non-competitive defeats last week; losing by 30 at home to Michigan State and by 24 on the road at Indiana. Without their two best players, suspended (and subsequently expelled) big man Reggie Lynch and injured forward Amir Coffey, Richard Pitino’s team is in a world of hurt right now; a ‘dead’ team here in late February. It’s surely worth noting that Pitino has struggled to put together a gameplan to beat Wisconsin. The Badgers have won seven straight in this series. Five of the last six Wisconsin victories against Minnesota have come by double digit margins. And the Badgers, unlike the Gophers, are still playing hard every night despite their own disappointments this season. Everything broke wrong for Wisconsin in January, as the Badgers went through a truly ugly 1-8 skid, the Badgers worst stretch of basketball in decades. But they’ve come out of that stretch with a pair of outright upset victories in their last three ballgames, including an impressive upset against Purdue; a game the Badgers won despite an ugly 4-21 shooting performance from three point range. All the quotes coming out of Madison are positive ones right now. Big man Ethan Happ: “I’m not going to count us out. We’re hoping to build momentum going into the tournament.” Frosh guard Brad Davidson: “We’ve still got a long season ahead of us, so we’re just going to keep working.” Assistant coach Dean Oliver: “We can still win the Big Ten tournament, play in the NCAA tournament……We’ve had a few losses (after) we felt like we had turned the corner. It’s so late in the season now that the freshmen aren’t freshmen, there’s no excuse for it.” Cheap price to lay with the superior squad tonight. Take Wisconsin. For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/uw/2018/02/18/bo-ryan-sees-badgers-making-modest-gains-big-ten-tournament-approaches/338749002/ http://host.madison.com/wsj/sports/college/basketball/men/wisconsin-refuses-to-throw-in-the-towel/article_7bb8392f-a1bf-58b0-8610-40f175e6b06d.html |
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02-19-18 | Miami-FL +4.5 v. Notre Dame | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#703) Depth matters in these short turnaround Monday games. Miami has it. Notre Dame doesn’t. The Fighting Irish have really been through the gauntlet in recent weeks. They lost their best player, leading scorer and rebounder Bonzie Colson, at the start of ACC play. Then DJ Harvey went down, suffering a setback that has delayed his expected return from injury. Defensive stopper Rex Pflueger hurt his back on Saturday, no sure thing to be effective tonight even if he suits up. That leaves Mike Brey with a VERY limited rotation right now. Both Matt Farrell and TJ Gibbs played all 40 minutes at Boston College on Saturday. Matinas Geben and John Mooney played 30+, both guys having their second highest minute count of the season in that contest. The minute count for Farrell and Gibbs stands out, because of what happened last Monday. The Irish played a short turnaround game at North Carolina after beating Florida State on Saturday. Notre Dame had very little energy left in the tank in a 17 point defeat. Starting guards Farrell and Gibbs combined to shooting 4-27 from the floor in that ballgame, dealing with tired legs. Farrell and Gibbs just shot a combined 18-27 against BC on Saturday, including 12-16 from three point range. I’m not expecting that duo to even come close to matching that type of offensive output this evening. Miami is on an 0-3 SU & ATS slide. The first loss came by a bucket at Boston College, no shame there – it happens over the course of a long ACC campaign. Then Miami played the two best defensive teams in the ACC, back-2-back, losing both times. Canes head coach Jim Larranaga after their loss to Syracuse on Saturday: “We did a great job against the zone in practice, and I felt we were very well-prepared. The Syracuse zone must be better than our scout team zone. It was very, very hard to score. Even some of the shots we made were challenged. We settled for way too many deep threes.” Notre Dame isn’t going to come close to matching the defensive presence of Virginia or Syracuse, a major step down in defensive class for the road underdog. And Larranaga doesn’t have Brey’s depth concerns – eight different Hurricanes played at least 12 minutes of floor time in Saturday’s loss to the Orange. Live dog here! Take Miami. |
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02-18-18 | Houston v. Temple +3 | 80-59 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Temple (#856) Houston is not a ‘road chalk’ team and this is not a ‘road chalk’ spot! The Cougars have won a grand total of four road games all year: at St Louis, at East Carolina, at USF and at Central Florida (just after star center Tacko Fall got hurt). That’s not exactly a who’s who of quality foes! And yet, coming off their biggest win of the season – knocking off #5 Cincinnati on Thursday – the Cougs are being asked to lay points on the road this afternoon against a Temple team that is every bit as good as they are! Cougs coach Kelvin Sampson knows what’s coming today: "We're playing a desperate team that is trying to get into the tournament. It's a must-win for Temple. They know that. Our sense of desperation has to match their sense of desperation." Temple is coming off a particularly frustrating loss, leading Top 20 Wichita State in Wichita by 14 at halftime before falling apart late, eventually losing by seven. Still, it was the Owls sixth consecutive pointspread cover, 100% perfect ATS here in February with six straight covers; an undervalued commodity following an early five game skid. The Owls gave the Cougs everything they could handle in the first meeting between these two teams, a three point loss in Houston. No surprise here if this time, the Owls finish the job with the SU victory. Take Temple. |
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02-18-18 | Nebraska +1 v. Illinois | 66-72 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#853) Let me start with an excerpt from the same basic write-up I’ve been using to support Nebraska for the better part of the Big 10 campaign. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “It’s been a sin of omission not to have Nebraska every single time they’ve hit the court for the last month. My clients and I have cashed a handful of tickets supporting the Cornhuskers, but quite frankly, this team has been as ‘bet-on’ as it gets since the start of Big 10 play; 14-1 ATS in their 15 league games. “And yet we’ve seen the ‘wiseguy’ steam pour in AGAINST Nebraska in early betting action on Sunday. This isn’t new or different -- $$ has showed against Nebraska on a consistent basis for most of this ATS run. The wiseguys keep fading this team and they keep losing… “I love this quote from Huskers senior guard Anton Gill, especially in a ‘win and cover’ pointspread range like the Huskers are in tonight: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” This Husker program has only one trip to the Big Dance in the last 20 years (a first round loss to Baylor in 2014), and Tim Miles has them playing like a hungry, focused team.” The Huskers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games. They’ve won SU at Minnesota, Wisconsin, Rutgers and Northwestern in Big 10 play, a team that has gotten used to winning in hostile environments. Illinois, on the other hand, hasn’t been winning in any environment; at the very bottom of the Big 10 standings. They’ve lost to the likes of Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State on this floor in conference play, and their lone strength – defensive ball pressure – isn’t likely to wreak havoc on a Nebraska squad that ranks among the Top 30 teams in the country in turnover percentage on offense. The Huskers truly are the gift that keeps on giving. Take Nebraska. |
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02-17-18 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -6.5 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Mississippi State (#636) The Andy Kennedy era is not ending well at Ole Miss. Kennedy was an excellent head coach for much of his tenure, guiding the Rebels to nine 20+ win seasons in the last 11 years. But the Rebels aren’t getting to 20 wins this year; sitting at 11-15 right now while enmeshed in an ugly six game losing streak. Kennedy has already announced his departure following the end of the season. And his quotes are as ‘bet-against’ as they come. Here’s Kennedy following the Rebels ugly home loss to Arkansas earlier in the week, on the heels of an equally ugly blowout loss at LSU: "This was about Ole Miss…..I'm the man here. I'm culpable for this. After watching our performance Saturday (vs. LSU), I thought, 'Man, this is as bad as I've seen it in my 400 games.' Until tonight. I apologize. I certainly did not want to go out like this. But as I said yesterday, my words are ringing hollow. I can't get 'em, I can't reach 'em……I'm at a little bit of a loss ... I've never been more disappointed in this profession. Never.” Ole Miss didn’t show up at all for their head coach in the first game following his announcement of departure; generally a pretty strong ‘bet-on’ spot in college hoops. That’s particularly bad news today because their opponent is coming to play! Ben Howland’s Bulldogs are coming off a pair of frustrating losses on the road, losing at Missouri in OT and at Vandy by a single point. It’s surely worth noting that Mississippi State covered the spread in both of those losses, part of their current 6-0 ATS run. And, after starting the season as a moneyburner playing in Starkville, cashing just two winning bets for the entirety of non-conference play, the Rebels are 5-1 SU and ATS at home since the start of SEC play, the lone loss coming to mighty Auburn. Ole Miss ain’t Auburn…… And this is a meaningful revenge game for the Bulldog, to give us one final piece of the puzzle. In the first meeting between these two in-state rivals, Mississippi State led by nine in Oxford with eight minutes remaining. Then the Rebels they went ice cold; outscored 22-7 down the stretch, a stinging loss that they still remember. Expect a blowout – Ole Miss has a glass chin these days, unable to withstand the punches that Mississippi State is likely to throw at them. Take Mississippi State. |
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02-17-18 | UNLV +4.5 v. San Diego State | 56-94 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Take UNLV (#557) Let me start with an excerpt from my last anti- Aztecs write-up; a 25 point blowout loss against Nevada. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “San Diego State was the best team in the Mountain West Conference for most of Steve Fisher’s extended tenure as their head coach. That success has not carried over to the Brian Dutcher era. San Diego State is winless against any of the top five teams in the conference, not stepping up in class particularly well these days.” That’s certainly not the case for UNLV, a young team that is growing up before our eyes here in conference play. The Rebels are playing their best ball since December right now: 5-1 SU in their last six games, the lone loss coming by a single bucket in OT at Boise. That stretch includes a double digit win over the Aztecs in the first meeting, despite the fact that they got clobbered on the offensive glass in that contest. UNLV isn’t getting clobbered on the glass very often these days, not with their low post duo of Brandon McCoy and Shakur Juiston BOTH averaging more than ten rebounds per game. The Rebels core has stayed healthy all season, and that on-court chemistry is really starting to develop nicely. UNLV is better now than they were a month ago – much better – yet this line isn’t reflective of that improvement. Live dog here! Take UNLV. For additional reading, check out this local source link: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/sd-sp-aztecs-basketball-unlv-20180216-story.html |
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02-17-18 | VCU -2.5 v. George Washington | 56-80 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Take VCU (#559) My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against George Washington at home earlier in the month, as the Colonials were blown out by Davidson 87-58. We won’t need anywhere near that level of blowout to cash today against GWU, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if this game, too, turns into a major blowout. GWU has precious little home court advantage these days. They are 4-9 in A-10 play, and all four of those tell the same story – GWU can step down in class, but not up in class. That hasn’t changed since frosh guard Justin Mazzulla has moved into the starting lineup. UMass, LaSalle, George Mason and St Joes are the only four teams in the A-10 that the Colonials have been able to beat. All four of those squads are sub .500 teams in conference play. VCU is not! The Rams beat the Colonials by 24 in the first meeting, playing lockdown defense against GWU’s limited offense – the Colonials were held under 30% from the floor in the second half. Just as importantly, VCU dominated the glass to the tune of a +12 edge. GWU didn’t get a single second chance point off an offensive rebound in that contest; a matchup edge that’s still very much in VCU’s favor. GWU is coming off a win. They haven’t won back-2-back games since December. VCU is coming in off a poorly played loss at home against Davidson on Wednesday Night. They’ve won two of their last three on the highway, the lone loss coming by a single point at Richmond. From all indications, this is a VCU spot, against a team they’re poised to beat by margin. Take VCU. For additional reading, check out this local source link: http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/schools/virginia-commonwealth-university/as-they-continue-to-try-to-improve-their-basketball-awareness/article_47dc7014-8c3f-582e-9afd-55becd46ce45.html |
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02-15-18 | Oregon State v. UCLA -7 | 68-75 | Push | 0 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Take UCLA (#568) This pointspread is telling us to expect a competitive game. I’m not buying that the 13-11 Beavers – still winless on the highway this season (including a pair of tries as road favorites) – are going to hang tough with UCLA in this revenge matchup for the Bruins. The Bruins still remember what happened in Corvallis. Oregon State manhandled UCLA in the paint, dominating the battle of the boards (18 offensive rebounds) while using a late 10-3 run to escape with the victory. Bruins forward GG Goloman: “We're going to play a lot tougher than we did in the first game. We're going to have to fight for every loose ball and play like we want it more." Bruins leading scorer Aaron Holiday: “They already beat us once; they showed that they could do it, and it's our job to change that and beat them Thursday." Bruins head coach Steve Alford has seen his team bounce back strong from that loss to the Beavers, part of a head scratching three game PAC-12 losing streak (at the time). Since then, UCLA has gotten back on track with four wins in their last five games, including wins and covers against quality foes USC and Arizona. Alford has made one lineup adjustment from the first meeting that should help tonight – more Prince Ali matched up against Beavers guard Ethan Thompson, who snared four of those offensive rebounds in the first meeting. Alford: “Prince can help us with that, because he's a big guard who can do those things." Four of Oregon State’s five starters played at least 39 minutes in the Beavers high intensity, come-from-behind win against Washington over the weekend; a double OT thriller. Coming off back-2-back home wins – their first two game winning streak since mid-December against non-conference patsies – I’m expecting the Beavers to struggle to match UCLA’s intensity (and talent) tonight. Take UCLA. |
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02-15-18 | Nuggets +3 v. Bucks | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#501) At first glance, the Milwaukee Bucks have put together an impressive run since Joe Prunty took over for Jason Kidd as head coach: 9-2 SU in the 11 games since the coaching change. But a quick look at the Bucks schedule shows exactly why Milwaukee has been hot of late – they’ve been feasting on bottom feeders, one after the next. The results don’t lie. During this 9-2 SU stretch, the Bucks are 8-0 against teams with sub .400 winning percentages. They’ve beaten the Knicks twice, the Nets twice, as well as the Magic, Hawks, Bulls & Suns. When Milwaukee has been asked to step up in class under Prunty, it hasn’t been quite as pretty: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS. Even the one win comes with an asterisk – they beat the Sixers on the second night of back-2-backs for Philly when Joel Embiid was sitting. And the Bucks are really banged up heading into the break. Malcolm Brogdon, Matthew Dellevadova and John Henson are all expected to miss tonight’s game, leaving Milwaukee shorthanded at point guard and in the low post, especially with recently returned Jabari Parker likely to be limited with a sore knee. This is not a spot where we should expect the Bucks to bring their ‘A’ game. Nuggets head coach Mike Malone, talking about his Nuggets, who have knocked off the Thunder, Spurs and Warriors as part of a 5-1 SU and ATS run here in February: "We have a good rhythm right now. Let's not check out mentally until after the game. These games going into the break are always the tough ones, because guys are thinking about that Mai Tai on the beach they're gonna be drinking. Let's handle our business ... and then we can get some well-deserved rest." I expect Denver to buy that message 100%, a game they’re live to win in SU fashion. Take the Nuggets. |
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02-14-18 | Nevada v. Boise State -2 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boise State (#788) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ Big Ticket winner supporting Nevada on Saturday in their 25 point blowout over San Diego State. The beauty of that result is that it gives us another prime opportunity to get involved with a Big Ticket sized wager with the Wolfpack tonight. One big difference though – this time, the clear play is AGAINST Nevada as they travel to Boise to take on the Broncos. Let me start with an excerpt from Saturday’s write-up supporting Nevada: This is the mother of all ‘step-up’ games for Nevada. Wolfpack head coach Eric Musselman was not amused by the Wolfpack’s performance against UNLV on Wednesday Night; their first home loss of the season, and dropping Musselman’s record at the Lawlor Center to 40-4 in his three years on the job. This Musselman quote really stands out: “Our defense stunk, our rebounding stunk, our loose-ball getting stunk……We played soft. I don’t know what else to say.” It was clearly a Nevada spot, and they played like it! But tonight’s game sets up very differently following that blowout win over the Aztecs. The Wolfpack are entering a truly brutal scheduling stretch, with road games at Boise, Utah State, UNLV and San Diego State in their next six games. Coach Musselman: “I was just wondering if the league office liked us or not. It’s as difficult a six-game stretch that we’ve had since I’ve been here." It’s not like Nevada has been going on the road and beating quality foes. Their road wins this season: at Santa Clara, Pacific, Hawaii, UC-Irvine, Air Force, San Jose, Colorado State and Fresno. Nevada was favored in each and every one of those ballgames – only Fresno is a decent team out of that bunch. This Wolfpack team is an overvalued commodity in a setting like this one – they’ve feasted on the weak. This is truly a statement game for the Broncos, a team that is in Joe Lunardi’s ‘First Four Out’ in the latest Bracketology . Boise lost by six in Reno earlier this season. Probable Mountain West Player of the Year, Boise’s senior playmaker Chandler Hutchinson, following that defeat: “We don’t feel like we got beat by a better team. We feel like we had some mental errors you can’t have on the road.” Boise is certainly a battle tested ballclub – nine of their last ten games have been decided by six points or less; a team that knows how to win the close ones. The Broncos are 13-0 at home this year, and their realistic chance for an at large bid rests on tonight’s performance. Count me in as a Broncos believer. Big Ticket: Take Boise State. For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2018/02/13/nevada-basketballs-most-difficult-stretch-season-starts-boise-state/334923002/ https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/basketball/valentine-s-day-special-broncos-set-for-monster-showdown-with/article_2d458801-95f2-5a68-bd54-5032651db2d1.html |
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02-14-18 | Warriors v. Blazers +6 | 117-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#724) We’ve got ‘fat and happy’ vs. ‘hungry and motivated’ in the final game for both teams before the All Star Break. Steve Kerr has spent the better part of the last month talking about the high fatigue level for the Warriors; taking every team’s best punch, night after night. Kerr used quotes like “mentally fried” and “dying to get to the All-Star break.” Kerr was able to get his team’s attention this past week, putting together a 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS run to close out their homestand. It’s surely worth noting that all three wins were easy blowouts, two against bottom feeders (Phoenix and Dallas); the third coming against a shorthanded and slumping Spurs squad. Tonight’s game at Portland is a step up in class for a Warriors team that has struggled to step up on the highway of late, losing at Denver, Utah and Houston in their last three tries against playoff caliber foes. Meanwhile, very quietly, waaaaaaay underneath the radar, the Portland Trail Blazers have been dominating at the Moda Center in Portland, reeling off a 9-0 SU, 7-1-1 ATS run since Christmas. That run ended with a resounding thud on Sunday when the Blazers forgot to come out of the locker room after halftime against the Jazz, outscored 72-52 in the second half of an ugly, embarrassing 19 point loss. All Star Damian Lillard talking about the importance of a bounceback effort tonight, before the break: “It's a big game for our team. It would be great go into the (All-Star) break with a win against the defending champs, especially with how the standings are shaking out right now. It's a game we need to win. It's going to be exciting, it's going to be loud, and it's going to be really competitive." I, too, expect a ‘competitive’ game, start to finish. Take the Blazers. |
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02-14-18 | Kentucky +10 v. Auburn | 66-76 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#767) Bruce Pearl knows what’s coming tonight: "They are really long and we've been bothered by teams like Texas A&M or Alabama that do a great job of using their length, big guards. We'll have those kind of challenges. How much do you extend and make Kentucky better? But at the same time if we don't extend and let them get close to the basket, they're going be really good." John Calipari knows what’s coming tonight, talking about the challenge his team faces as they travel to face a Top 10 foe on the road: “It’s exactly what’s called for right now. This is the kind of game you want right now. How about you play someone who’s not good, and you’re still struggling? I’d rather go into this game. Let’s go. Let’s see if we can do something special.” Wildcats assistant Kenny Payne knows that Kentucky has one legitimate matchup edge against an Auburn team that doesn’t have a starter taller than 6-7; a Tigers squad that is an average of 3.5 inches shorter than their Kentucky counterparts at every position: “I think our advantages are going to be our length, our athleticism. They are not a tall team. They are basically, it looks like, three or four guards and a forward. Their tallest guy is 6-7, 6-8 that is playing minutes. We have to take advantage of that. That means offensive rebounding, that means stuff around the baskets we have to be strong. We have to be the aggressor. We have to go after them. We really have to go out and play desperate basketball.” It’s surely worth noting that despite some truly ugly stretches of basketball, the Wildcats have only suffered one loss all season by a bigger margin than tonight’s pointspread. I personally took a taste of the moneyline at +400 to go along with my wager on Kentucky plus the points. Take Kentucky. For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-basketball-men/article199888639.html https://auburn.247sports.com/Article/Auburn-wary-of-Kentucky-squad-desperate-for-win-115103566 |
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02-13-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5 | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#512) Over the course of the last decade plus, San Antonio has generally been a ‘bet-on’ team during their annual ‘rodeo’ road trip. But it sure doesn’t feel like San Antonio is about to go on a run this year; certainly not in Denver on the second night of back-2-backs with an injury riddled roster. The Spurs are a sub .500 team since the calendar turned to 2018, just 10-12 SU in their last 22 ballgames. They’ve lost every single road game (in SU fashion) to a .500 or better opponent since before Christmas. In fact, San Antonio has a grand total of TWO wins all year on the road vs. .500 or better opponents. One of those wins came at Miami in the very first week of the season, the other came by a single bucket at Portland when the Blazers were slumping badly. The Spurs fought down to the wire in Salt Lake City last night, but they blew a 13 point fourth quarter lead to lose in SU fashion; a hotly contested game. It’s not going to be easy to find that same level of energy tonight, in the altitude of Denver with a truly mishmashed roster right now. Kawhi Leonard and Rudy Gay have been out long term. LaMarcus Aldridge is out until after the All Star Break. Tony Parker is iffy on the second night of back-2-backs, and Dejounte Murray sat Saturday vs. Golden State, no sure thing to play here. In short, I’m NOT expecting San Antonio’s ‘A’ game in their last contest before their upcoming vacation. Denver, on the other hand, is rested and ready, off a solid win at Phoenix on Saturday. With just this one game on tap before vacation, I’m expecting maximum effort and efficiency from this Nuggets team that gave the Spurs fits in a two point loss at San Antonio less than two weeks ago. Points worth laying…...Take the Nuggets. |
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02-13-18 | Virginia v. Miami-FL +6 | 59-50 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Miami-FL (#544) Virginia enters this matchup with Miami on one hell of a run. The Cavs are ranked #1 in the current AP Poll, #3 in the Coach’s Rankings. They are 9-1 SU and ATS away from home, suffering only two pointspread losses on any floor since the calendar turned to 2018. And yet Virginia is a clear ‘bet-against’ team for me tonight as road chalk at Miami. First, note this, because it’s important. Virginia isn’t the best team in the country. They’re not in the Top 5 or Top 10 or even the Top 20 when it comes to talent. Man for man, Miami is every bit as talented. The Cavs have been exceptional this season because their defense is as good as it gets, and they’ve found enough three point shooting to survive. I’m not convinced that’s going to work against a Hurricanes team that has given Virginia all kinds of trouble in recent seasons, especially with Miami coming off an ugly, blown lead flu ridden loss to Boston College over the weekend. The Cavs are 1-7 SU on the highway in their last eight tries against Miami. The last time Miami faced the #1 team in the country on this floor, they blew out Duke 90-63. Four of the last ten meetings between these two teams have gone into overtime. Four more were decided by five points or less. Jim Larranaga has been able to match up very well against Tony Bennett, plain and simple, a trend worth riding tonight. Take Miami-FL For additional reading, check out these links: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/acc/university-of-miami/article199799244.html http://www.dailyprogress.com/cavalierinsider/wahoo-opponent-overview-miami/article_bc1c33fd-34e3-5402-a279-5515ee36f492.html |
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02-13-18 | Maryland v. Nebraska | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#524) It’s been a sin of omission not to have Nebraska every single time they’ve hit the court for the last month. My clients and I have cashed a handful of tickets supporting the Cornhuskers, but quite frankly, this team has been as ‘bet-on’ as it gets since the start of Big 10 play; 11-1 ATS in their twelve league games. And yet we’ve seen the ‘wiseguy’ steam pour in AGAINST Nebraska in early betting action on Tuesday. This isn’t new or different -- $$ has showed against Nebraska on a consistent basis for most of this ATS run. The wiseguys keep fading this team and they keep losing… I love this quote from Huskers senior guard Anton Gill, especially in a ‘win and cover’ pointspread range like the Huskers are in tonight: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” This Husker program has only one trip to the Big Dance in the last 20 years (a first round loss to Baylor in 2014), and Tim Miles has them playing like a hungry, focused team. Maryland has shorthanded since Justin Jackson and Ivan Bender got hurt. Their big three – Anthony Cowan, Darrly Morsell and Kevin Huerter – have been piling up minutes. In a blowout over Northwestern last weekend, that trio played 114 out of a possible 120 floor minutes; a clear indicator that the Terps depth isn’t what it should be. That’s bad news in a high energy setting like this one for the home team, especially considering Maryland’s woeful performance on the highway – one SU win all season, in OT, at last place Illinois. Fade the steam! Take Nebraska. |
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02-12-18 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 211 | 92-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take New York – Philadelphia UNDER (#701-702) The Knicks offense is pretty ugly right now while Jeff Hornacek plays ‘point guard shuffle’ on a nightly basis and New York tries to execute without injured leading scorer Kristaps Porzingas. Jarrett Jack got the start yesterday at the point in Indiana, with newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, underachieving Trey Burke and Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina getting minutes as well. Prior to yesterday’s offensive outburst (113 points & a 27-11 assist-to-turnover ratio), New York had been held to 96 or less in five straight games while averaging just 87 ppg in their previous five contests; cashing Under bets in each and every one of those ballgames. And while Indiana didn’t play a whole lot of defense against the Knicks yesterday, the 76ers defense is no joke these days, primed to shut New York down. Philly now ranks #4 in the NBA for the full season in points per 100 possessions allowed on defense, allowing 102.8. On their current homestand, that defense has been dynamite, allowing just 91.2 PP/100 while going 3-0 SU and ATS; part of the 76ers 4-1 run to the Under in their last five games and their 4-1 run to the Under in their last five at home. Philly is playing their third game in four days; not expected to push the pace tonight. The Knicks are on the second of back-2-backs, and their offensive execution is bottom tier right now. Expect a relatively low scoring affair that stays UNDER the total. Take the UNDER. |
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02-12-18 | Notre Dame +11 v. North Carolina | 66-83 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame (#713) Mike Brey has delivered the goods from an ATS perspective against Roy Williams. The Irish are 6-3 ATS in nine meetings against North Carolina since joining the ACC, including a one point loss as five point underdogs in the first meeting between these two teams; a game that Notre Dame played without their top two players. Bonzie Colson is still out for the Irish, but Matt Farrell is back on the floor, and he’s having a major impact. In back-2-back wins and covers against BC and Florida State last week – snapping a seven game skid following the Farrell injury – Farrell was a monster: 47 points and 12 rebounds. Head coach Mike Brey: “We take our lead from Matt Farrell. He’s been a warrior for us.” The Irish don’t lose contact very often, suffering only three double digit defeats all season, two of which came at Michigan State and at Duke, no shame there. And they’re facing a tired Tar Heels squad that isn’t primed to land a knockout punch tonight, given their brutal scheduling spot. Thanks to TV commitments, North Carolina will be playing their third game in five nights; the only ACC team to deal with a stretch like this. Head coach Roy Williams is already making excuses: “I don’t necessarily like it. I definitely don’t like that we’re the only one doing it. But (senior associate ACC commissioner) Paul (Brazeau) called and said we’ve got a stretch for you and it’s going to be very difficult but we need to do it. I said, alright, let’s do it.” This scheduling spot would be bad no matter what. But it’s even worse given what the Tar Heels have been through over the past four days – a grueling ‘bad blood’ victory against Duke, followed by an equally grueling revenge match against NC State; both games coming down to the final minute. For a North Carolina squad that has limited quality depth and doesn’t play lockdown defense in the halfcourt, don’t expect the Tar Heels to be able to find the energy to extend their margin tonight. Take Notre Dame. |
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02-11-18 | Jazz v. Blazers -3 | 115-96 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#816) Utah has been on one heck of a run over the last couple of weeks, winning eight straight games. It’s surely worth noting how many of those contests were ‘right team at the right time’ type of games – getting teams in notable flat spots, or missing key players. This is not one of those games. And make no mistake about it – this Jazz team is tired. Utah’s last homestand of longer than two games came back in November. 29 of their last 32 games have involved court changes and travel, including their last nine. With the All Star Break looming, and back-2-back home games on tap after tonight, this final road game in a BRUTAL scheduling stretch leaves UTAH as the team in a ‘notable flat spot’. Don’t underestimate the chemistry change for the Jazz following their trading deadline, as they dealt away second leading scorer Rodney Hood and released the always effective bench presence of Joe Johnson. The Jazz have enjoyed a legitimate bench edge over most teams this season; an edge that may not exist any more following those deadline deals. Very quietly, waaaaaaay underneath the radar, the Portland Trail Blazers haven’t lost at home since before Christmas: 9-0 SU, 7-1-1 ATS. Their lone pointspread loss during that span came as double digit favorites in a game they led by as many as 25 in the second half against the Suns before a late Phoenix rally to cover. Portland is the undervalued commodity here, and this spot screams Blazers. Lay the points! Take Portland. |
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02-10-18 | Washington +5 v. Oregon State | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#675) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winning bets supporting the Washington Huskies in recent weeks. Let me start with an excerpt from my last write-up supporting the Huskies in their road win at Arizona State last weekend: “Washington first year head coach Mike Hopkins was Jim Boeheim’s assistant at Syracuse for the previous 22 seasons. He took the Huskies job this past offseason and immediately started introducing Boeheim’s defensive concepts – the 2-3 matchup zone - to his veteran squad, a team with four returning starters from last year. “The results have been impressive. The Huskies rank first in the PAC-12 in 3-point field goal percentage defense, first in blocked shots, second in steals and second in scoring defense. Hopkins, talking about his team’s defense: “Learning a new system, I might be surprised with how well they’ve adapted and adjusted and believed in the zone. We’re starting to get really good at it. I think there were some growing pains, but the way that they’ve responded with it has been probably the biggest surprise. But I think that’s been probably one of the biggest reasons we’ve been winning.” Washington is coming off their ugliest offensive game of the season – by far – held to 40 points on 27% shooting in a 25 point loss at Oregon. Washington was as flat as a pancake throughout, coming off a buzzer beating upset win over a Top 20 Arizona squad. Hopkins, following the game: “I felt today it came down to Oregon played like it was life or death and you got to match that. You got to fight for that, especially when you’re on the road. One of the keys when you’re on the road is you got to keep scoring. And we just couldn’t score enough points tonight. I thought we got the ball in areas that we needed, but we just didn’t have a good flow tonight.” There’s no panic there, just a bad game, which sets up nicely for a bounceback spot tonight in Corvallis. Leading scorer Noah Dickerson: “Sometimes you have a game where the ball just doesn’t go in the basket. They did a good job of taking me out. Hats off to Oregon. They did a really good job with their game plan.” And considering the Huskies have won SU at Colorado, Wazzou, USC and Kansas, bouncing back on the road is something we can expect, not just hope for. Oregon State has been a terrible favorite all year, just 2-8 ATS when laying -12 or fewer. This is not a particularly strong homecourt, losing SU to the likes of Wyoming and Utah on this floor. And Wayne Tinkle’s squad just got their ‘must win’ game against hapless Wazzou earlier in the week. Their last two game winning streak came well before Christmas…..Take Washington. For additional reading from local sources, click this link: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-basketball/washingtons-offense-goes-cold-in-65-40-loss-to-oregon/ |
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02-10-18 | San Diego State v. Nevada -5.5 | Top | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Nevada (#660) This is the mother of all ‘step-up’ games for Nevada. Wolfpack head coach Eric Musselman was not amused by the Wolfpack’s performance against UNLV on Wednesday Night; their first home loss of the season, and dropping Musselman’s record at the Lawlor Center to 40-4 in his three years on the job. This Musselman quote really stands out: “Our defense stunk, our rebounding stunk, our loose-ball getting stunk……We played soft. I don’t know what else to say.” From a local columnist in the Reno papers, following the game: ‘(Musselman) questioned their toughness. He questioned whether or not they were even capable of playing sound defense. He wondered if they could even recover enough to finish in the top five of the Mountain West and get a bye out of the first round of the Mountain West tournament. You can be sure that the rest of (the week) is going to be a basketball boot camp for this Wolf Pack team.” San Diego State was the best team in the Mountain West Conference for most of Steve Fisher’s extended tenure as their head coach. That success has not carried over to the Brian Dutcher era. Following their demoralizing 18 point loss at Fresno on Tuesday, the Aztecs are just 1-5 SU on the highway in MWC play. They’ll likely be without key senior Trey Kell (ankle) again today. And San Diego State is winless against any of the top six teams in the conference, not stepping up in class particularly well these days. This game is a mismatch being priced like a competitive contest. Expect a rout! Big Ticket: Take Nevada. For additional reading, click on this link https://www.recordcourier.com/sports/pack-loss-to-rebels-a-disappointment/ |
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02-10-18 | Wyoming +6.5 v. UNLV | 70-85 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#661) Expect a battle, not a blowout! UNLV is in a major flat spot, coming off a HUGE road upset against arch-rival Nevada, on the heels of a two point overtime loss at Boise. Both games were extremely intense, down-to-the-wire affairs. For a team that has been extremely prone to letdowns all season, that raises a big red flag when it comes to tonight’s game, a rare 5 PM start time for a team that usually plays a couple of hours later. The Rebels have had a very tough time stringing wins together in conference play; just 1-5 SU in their last six tries coming off a single victory. Even the 1 comes with an asterisk – it came against 3-19 San Jose State, and the Rebels never sniffed a pointspread cover. And as favorites, UNLV has been nothing short of awful: 0-10 ATS in their last ten tries laying more than a bucket; consistently unable to beat teams by margin. My local sources are NOT impressed with the Rebels chances to win today, let alone to win by margin. Wyoming is as tough as nails, and they are an 80% ATS proposition this year when catching more than a bucket as underdogs. Senior Hayden Dalton and junior Justin James are legit talents, combining for more than 36 ppg between them. But the Cowboys biggest strength is their quality depth, with nine guys averaging double digit minutes. That quality depth is a big reason why Wyoming keeps winning tight games late – they’re fresher down the stretch -- including a remarkable 6-0 SU season in overtime games. Live dog here! Take Wyoming. For additional reading, click on these links: http://trib.com/sports/college/wyoming/mbb/wyoming-men-s-basketball-seeks-first-road-win-against-unlv/article_0f770cc4-abd9-5dd1-9307-a8b77476adb8.html https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/unlv/unlv-basketball/rebels-need-to-show-unr-victory-wasnt-a-fluke/ |
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02-10-18 | Tennessee v. Alabama +2.5 | 50-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#618) This is most assuredly a ‘step-up’ spot for Alabama, with a Top 25 team coming to Tuscaloosa on Saturday, offering the Crimson Tide a chance at redemption for their sluggish loss at Mississippi State earlier in the week. Bama has consistently struggled to get up for lesser foes. Sophomore Daniel Giddens: “I think we bring our A-game for Top -25 teams and that’s something we need to do for every team, bring our A-game. To be honest with you, I can’t tell you why.” Bama is 4-1 SU against Top 25 opposition this year, the lone loss coming at Minnesota in November when the Crimson Tide were forced to play 5-on-3 in the second half due to injuries and fouls. They STILL covered the spread in a five point loss. They won by 18 at Florida last Saturday, gave Auburn their first SEC loss at home last month, beat Texas A&M by 22 on this floor and even beat Rhode Island, currently ranked #18 and riding a 15 game winning streak. Alabama’s ‘A’ game is damn good, and this is one game where we can expect to see it! Head coach Avery Johnson: “Right now we’re 24 games into the season, we’re good enough. We can’t continue to use immaturity or inexperience as an excuse; we have to just grow up and I have to do a better job of coaching them.” Tennessee is as fat & happy as it gets after pulling the outright upset in Lexington against Kentucky earlier in the week, their sixth straight win. I’m not buying Rick Barnes’ squad as a juggernaut that is going to roll through the SEC without a couple of hiccups along the way. Be SURE to take at least a portion of your wager on the moneyline for this one, a game the Crimson Tide are primed to win in SU fashion. Take ‘Bama For additional reading, click on this link: http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/alabama/2018/02/09/inconsistency-alabama-mens-basketball-team-needs-stop-if-tide-going-make-ncaa-run/325168002/ |
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02-10-18 | San Jose State +9 v. Colorado State | 79-90 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Take San Jose State (#595) Colorado State has NO BUSINESS in this pointspread range today. I understand that San Jose State is the worst team in the conference. But the Spartans haven’t quit on their coach or their season. They’ve covered the spread in each of their last three losses, all competitive games, and all against better foes than they’ll face today (New Mexico, UNLV and Wyoming). The Spartans are not a ‘quit’ team, not even close. That’s not the case for Colorado State, as head coach Larry Eustachy is once again embroiled in turmoil, accused of abuse within the program. Players refused to practice on Thursday. Associate head coach Steve Barnes, who has taken over temporarily while the Eustachy, has not solved the problem. From local sources: Other sources said the players were refusing to practice because associate head coach Steve Barnes, who multiple sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, have said is “as bad” or “worse” than Eustachy, his close friend and boss for 22 of the past 27 seasons. Even worse, the locker room appears to be split between players who support Eustachy, like leading scorer Prentiss Nixon and teammates Raquan Mitchell and Anthony Bonner. However, according to multiple sources, a majority of those who are part of the program spoke out against Eustachy when the current investigation began last week. Bottom line – Colorado State has a fractured locker room and a seven game losing streak. Their last pointspread cover as a favorite came back in December, and I’m not anticipating a second one this afternoon….. Take San Jose State. |
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02-09-18 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Rockets | 104-130 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#813) I don’t step in front of the Rockets lightly, an elite team that is capable of lighting up the scoreboard against any foe they face. But this is the mother of all bad spots for Houston, and they’ll be facing an energized, motivated Nuggets team primed to pull the upset. I’m expecting a tight game down the stretch; one the Nuggets are capable of winning in outright fashion….or at least coming pretty darn close. The Rockets stood pat at the trading deadline – no burst of energy from a key new piece. They’re coming home off what can only be described as an excellent road trip: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, including blowout wins at San Antonio and Cleveland in their two main ‘step-up’ games. They’ve got little to be energized or excited about between now and the All Star Break next week – Dallas, Sacramento and Minnesota after this game. It’s ‘coast’ time for the Rockets; a team that hasn’t been particularly good in this ATS role anyway, just 9-13 ATS when laying -8 or higher YTD. Here’s a true ‘fat &happy’ quote from James Harden following Houston’s eight point win at Miami on Wednesday: “Huge win for us. Two starters out, Eric was out, we could have easily just chalked it up but we haven't done that all year. This shows us that we're getting better. We have a long way to go, obviously, but we're taking the right steps in the right direction." It’s surely worth noting that the Rockets won’t have Trevor Ariza again tonight, while both Ryan Anderson (ankle) and Eric Gordon (bad back) are both questionable at best. The Nuggets are brimming with confidence right now after knocking off OKC and Golden State on their just concluded homestand. That came on the heels of a one point loss to the Celtics and a two point loss at San Antonio. In short, this team has stepped up in class very well in recent weeks. And Mike Malone has consistently given Mike D’Antoni problems. Both Nuggets – Rockets matchups on this floor last year were tight, competitive games. Houston won both times, by a combined margin of seven points, unable to cover the spread in either matchup. And it’s worth noting that Denver has routinely been competitive in defeat – they’ve only suffered three losses by more than eight points since the first week of December. Take the Nuggets. |
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02-09-18 | Davidson +6.5 v. Rhode Island | 59-72 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Davidson (#827) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Davidson last weekend, a 29 point blowout win on the road at George Washington. This isn’t new or different for the Wildcats. This veteran squad has won SU on the highway at Fordham, George Mason and Charlotte as well, while losing by only one point at Dayton and covering wire-2-wire against North Carolina in Charlotte. Bob McKillop’s squad isn’t short on talent. Senior forward Peyton Aldridge just hung 29 points on St Joes before halftime, while the Hawks as a team scored only 28. The only other player in modern Davidson history to outscore an opponent for a full half? Some guy named Steph Curry….. McKillop has also changed up the Wildcats defense since some early season struggles, relying more on zone defense than man-to-man. The results have been impressive. Only one of their last ten opponents has scored more than 70 points against them. McKillop: “We were struggling to keep people from beating us and we were struggling playing man at about the 28th minute and then they were picking us apart. We didn’t rest in zone. It’s a matter of rhythm — how many shots you are giving up, how many fouls you are giving, the kind of shots you are giving up.” Rhode Island has had a full week off between games. If the team was riddled with injuries or struggling in any way, that would probably be a good thing. But URI has won 14 straight, earning a #18 ranking nationally. They are the #6 team nationally in RPI; ahead of Duke, Cinci, Auburn, North Carolina, Kentucky and so many other contenders. This week off came at the worst time for the Rams; walking around campus as ‘fat & happy’ as it gets…. And make no mistake about it – URI is an overvalued commodity right now. Sagarin, Massey and Ken Pom all have the Rams ranked between #20 and #33. I’m not buying URI in that range just yet. And Davidson will surely remember Rhode Island ending their season in the A-10 tournament last March, an ugly 84-60 blowout. Davidson has hit their free throws at an 87% clip in their last five games, taking advantage of those opportunities. URI has allowed opponents to shoot 49% from the field during that same span, not bringing the requisite energy on the defensive end of the court. Expect a competitive contest, with Davidson ‘live’ to pull off the outright upset….or at least come pretty darn close! Take Davidson. For additional reading, check out these links: http://www.independentri.com/rhody_overtime/article_6cf9676e-0db3-11e8-bcbb-bf955c8ec467.html http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20180208/rams-aim-to-disrupt-davidson-sharpshooters |
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02-08-18 | USC +4 v. Arizona State | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Take USC (#587) The concept here is simple: Arizona State lives and dies based on their perimeter shooting, a team that went 12-0 to open the season in large part due to their ability to drain three point shots. When that perimeter shooting goes cold, the Sun Devils aren’t winning games or covering pointspreads very often, as clearly evidenced by their current 2-8-1 ATS run since the start of PAC-12 play. It’s surely worth noting who Arizona State has been able to beat by margin in conference. The Sun Devils only wins by more than three points all came against PAC-12 bottom feeders: Cal, Washington State and Colorado; teams that are a combined 9-25 SU in conference play. When asked to step up against quality foes, Bobby Hurley’s team has been an ATS disaster area. Both meetings between these two teams last year came down to the final possession: USC winning by 1 and Arizona State winning by 3. This year’s USC squad is every bit as good if not better than last year’s 26 win squad. Coming off a tough loss to cross-town rival UCLA over the weekend, it’s a prime bounceback spot for a team that has proven repeatedly that they’re capable of winning games in SU fashion away from home. The Trojans have won at Oregon, Oregon State, Cal and Vandy, while losing by only 3 at UCL and 1 at Stanford. No surprise here if this game, like last year’s meetings, comes down to the final possession. Take USC. |
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02-08-18 | Hornets v. Blazers -3.5 | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#508) There’s no shame in the Blazers current three game losing streak. Portland is returning home off losses at Toronto, Boston and the revitalized Pistons; arguably the three best teams in the East right now. The Blazers are not a ‘losing streak’ type of squad when healthy – their only previous skid this season (back in early December) came against another tough slate (Warriors, Rockets, Wizards, Pelicans & Bucks) when they were at less than full strength. In fact, for the season, Portland has been a fairly consistent handicap – they don’t step up well against quality foes, but they’ve gone 17-5 SU against foes with sub .500 records, like the Hornets team they’ll face tonight. It’s circle the wagons time for Portland tonight, now only one game away from dropping to #9 in the Western Conference standings. Charlotte isn’t playing a lick of defense these days, allowing 114 points on 53% shooting over their last five games, with opponents enjoying a better than 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio against them. The Hornets have managed to cover just three pointspreads in their last eleven tries as road underdogs. They’ve been particularly bad in this ‘short dog’ ATS range in any venue, a woeful 2-12 ATS as dogs of less than five points; exactly the spread range they’re in this evening. Playing their eighth game in eight different cities over the last 14 days, expect Charlotte to come up short tonight. Take the Blazers. |
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02-07-18 | Texas A&M +7 v. Auburn | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Texas A&M (#757) Bruce Pearl knows what’s coming tonight, now that Texas A&M is back at full strength, following a barrage of mid-season injuries: “This Texas A&M team was picked second or third [in the SEC]. Some people had them first….. They're big. They lead the SEC in rebounding and defense. It's great for our league that they're back and playing well. We know we're going to have our hands full on Wednesday." The Aggies defensive mindset under head coach Billy Kennedy gave Auburn fits in each of the last two meetings between these squads: 81-62 and 81-63 A&M victories; one on each team’s home floor. Auburn has developed an ample following in the betting markets too: 9-1 ATS in their last ten ballgames including five straight wins and covers as part of their 16-5 ATS season. There are no betting market bargains to support this home favorite at this stage of the campaign! That’s not the case for the Aggies, who lost their betting bandwagon during that nasty injury plagued stretch in January where they went 2-7 SU and ATS. Since getting all his key cogs acclimated on the floor together once again, we’ve seen back-2-back dominant showings from the Aggies in their last two games, both blowout wins. Auburn is not likely to win the battle of the boards tonight. The Aggies low post duo of Tyler Davis and Robert Williams is a significant matchup edge for the road underdog. And Auburn’s defensive pressure isn’t likely to create turnovers in bunches vs. an Aggies team that can handle the basketball with senior Duane Wilson and junior Admon Gilden on the perimeter. No surprise here if the Aggies pull the outright upset……or at least come pretty darn close! Take Texas A&M. For additional reading, check out these links: http://www.oanow.com/sports/college/auburn/basketball/men/no-auburn-bracing-for-texas-a-m-s-size-advantage/article_112994f8-0b7a-11e8-808e-736178aefe1b.html https://247sports.com/college/texas-am/Article/Auburn-basketball-coach-Bruce-Pearl-on-Texas-AM-Theyve-got-their-roster-intact-114708938 |
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02-07-18 | Jazz -7 v. Grizzlies | 92-88 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#709) The betting markets don’t view Tyreke Evans as an impact player at this stage of his career. Evans has spent most of his career as a disappointing non-factor since being taken with the #4 overall pick by Sacramento eight years ago. But given a fresh opportunity for a Grizzlies team that lacks scorers, Evans has been the Grizzlies leading scorer and assist man since Mike Conley got hurt back in November; a true difference maker. The Grizzlies are looking to move Evans before the trading deadline tomorrow, so he’s been sitting on the bench. Fellow point guard Mario Chalmers is dealing with a bad hamstring. No surprise, then, that the Grizz have been held to 86 and 82 points in their last two games; unable to execute their offense without a legit point guard at the helm. For a team that’s 17 games under .500 and playing out the string with a lame duck head coach, I’m not expecting the Grizzlies problems to get solved anytime soon. Memphis got crushed by lowly Atlanta last night. Tonight, they’ll face the hottest team in the NBA, with the Jazz coming in on a six game winning streak – five road wins and a blowout over the Warriors. Utah is rested; Memphis is on the second night of back-2-backs. But even more importantly than that, the Jazz are a defensive nightmare for a limited offensive team like Memphis; especially bad news with the Utah offense starting to click on all cylinders. Jazz head coach Quin Snyder, explaining why his team is ‘bet-on’ right now: “We've gotten healthy, and guys are playing well, and they are playing for each other. The ball is moving offensively and guys are finding each other." The class difference here is not reflected by this pointspread, and the Jazz have been money in the bank as bigger chalk, cashing at a 71% clip YTD when laying -6 or higher. Take the Jazz. |
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02-06-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -10 | 125-105 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Golden State (#516) Here’s what I wrote when OKC shooting guard Andre Roberson got hurt in late January: “Andre Roberson ruptured his Achilles late in OKC’s blowout win at Detroit yesterday. Make no mistake about it – Andre Roberson matters – A LOT! Roberson barely moves the needle on OKC’s power rating, not a pointspread difference maker – he only averages 5.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. But when it comes to defensive acumen, Roberson is the Thunder’s top on-ball defender, by a fairly wide margin. “These stats tell a remarkable story. According to ESPN Stats & Info, in 539 minutes with Roberson joining Westbrook, George, Anthony and Adams on the floor, the Thunder allow 95.9 points per 100 possessions; in 402 minutes for the Thunder's Big Four without Roberson, they allow 114.5 points per 100. Yes, that’s the equivalent of going from (by far) the best defense in the NBA to (by far) the worst! “OKC knows what’s coming. Russell Westbrook: “A lot changes. A lot of things that's not seen on the court, a lot of things not seen in the stat sheet -- and that's a huge part. Like I've always said, he's a huge part of our team's success. And obviously, with him going down, we've got to be able to figure out and make up for the things he brings to the game defensively and offensively." Steven Adams: “He's a huge part of our team and why we win. It's a huge blow to us."’ The Thunder won their first game without Roberson. Since then, they have lost four straight, all as favorites, falling to the spread by more than ten points per game during that span. Even more alarmingly, Roberson’s impact on the defensive end of the court has been felt immediately. OKC has allowed opponents to shoot better than 40% from three point range since Roberson got hurt; particularly bad news against a Warriors team that leads the NBA in three point shooting percentage. Even worse for OKC, the Warriors are in revenge mode after getting embarrassed in a 17 point loss to the Thunder in their first meeting this season, snapping a seven game streak of Warriors wins and covers in this series, including a four game SU/ATS streak last year. And the Thunder aren’t going to catch the Warriors in a good mood tonight, not with Golden State coming off a no-show loss at Denver over the weekend, with two full days of much needed rest since that defeat. Chalk worth laying! Take the Warriors. |
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02-06-18 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -1.5 | 75-69 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Ole Miss (#556) For additional reading, check out these links below: http://www.djournal.com/sports/rebels-try-to-break-skid-tonight-as-missouri-visits/article_7762f443-0d1d-55e2-b315-ffe47cbd0a2b.html https://missouri.rivals.com/news/starting-five-mizzou-vs-ole-miss-1 http://thedmonline.com/rebels-hope-rebound-home-versus-tigers-tonight/ https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/sec/university-of-missouri/article198463284.html This one is simple. It’s ‘circle the wagons’ time for the Rebels following an ugly stretch of basketball in recent weeks. After losing spread covering heartbreakers to Texas A&M and Arkansas and a solid home win over Alabama, things have gone south for Andy Kennedy’s team in recent weeks, with losses to Texas and Auburn, followed by a truly ugly ‘bottoming out’ 33 point loss to Tennessee on Saturday. Kennedy: “I don’t think it’s our effort. We tell our guys they’re going to have to make multiple efforts on every possession to put themselves in position to win an SEC game. When we’ve executed and played to our potential we’ve had success. When we haven’t executed to our standard ... the league is unforgiving, and you’re not going to win.” While this is most assuredly a ‘step-up’ spot for the home team, it’s the antithesis of a ‘step-up’ spot for the road underdog. Missouri is coming off two HUGE wins, including the program’s first ever victory over mighty Kentucky on Saturday. That victory was keyed by a 2-20 three point shooting effort for the Wildcats; much of which was just poor shooting, not amazing Tigers defense. Ole Miss has connected at a 37% clip from beyond the arc in their last five ballgames. The Rebels want to push the pace, and they’ve been successful doing so, particularly at home. Missouri has only eight healthy players on scholarship right now; not a team with the depth to play 40 minutes of uptempo basketball on the highway against a highly motivated foe. And it’s surely worth noting that Ole Miss has been covering spreads as short favorites; 5-2 ATS in their seven previous tries as single digit chalk. Sharp $$ poured in on Ole Miss this morning for good reason! Take Mississippi. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4 | 41-33 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 40 m | Show | |
Take New England (#102) I have no strong opinion on the total for the Super Bowl. I do, however, have an opinion on the side; betting on the Patriots in a game I expect them to win. There is a case to be made for Philadelphia. Super Bowl Favorites have not done well, covering only four pointspreads in the last 16 Super Bowls, one of which came in OT. Philly has the better statistical defense and they certainly don’t have an overall talent deficit against New England. And chalk has NOT been the way to go in any previous New England Super Bowl in the modern era, with the dog going 6-0 ATS in regulation in Patriots Super Bowls (their win over the Seahawks came priced at pick ‘em). I can understand the case for Philly, but I don’t agree with it. The case for New England is a good notch or two stronger! Let me start with this. The most public team in the NFL – the defending Super Bowl champs, the dynasty team – has been consistently UNDER-valued in the betting marketplace. Since the start of the 2016 campaign, the Pats are a ridiculous 28-9 ATS, cashing one winning bet after the next. How good has Belichick been from a pointspread perspective? How about this doozy --- ZERO losing ATS seasons over the last ten years, despite the fact that they’ve been a ‘public’ team the entire time! How does this happen & why is the ‘sharp’ money fading New England week after week? Simple – the wiseguys are fixated with statistics, and the Patriots statistics aren’t elite. New England gives up yardage in bunches on defense – they’ve done it all year long. Philly has the superior defensive stats, for sure. But New England’s defensive stats don’t tell the true story. Their elite special teams force teams onto long fields, allowing them to gain extra yardage on drive after drive. Their red zone defense is top notch, holding teams to field goal tries. And, frankly, the Pats defensive stats have been lying since October – they were awful for the first four games of the season, numbers that still have a significant impact on their overall stats here in FEBRUARY! That’s not the only pro-Patriots piece of the equation. We’ve got the classic Super Bowl ‘value’ situation, with one team coming in off a near perfect game while the other is coming in off a non-covering struggle. Teams off a blowout vs. teams off a non-cover is a simple handicap – the betting public remembers what they just saw, leaving value on the other side. And that betting public also remembers favorites in previous Patriots Super Bowls going 0-6 ATS in regulation (the Seahawks Super Bowl was a pick ‘em). Strength of schedule matters too. My numbers are very clear on this one. Based on MY power rating numbers the week of the game (not end of the season cumulative numbers), the Eagles faced the single weakest schedule of any playoff team; getting the right team at the right time over and over again. New England in the Super Bowl cannot be considered the ‘right team at the right time’….. Nick Foles couldn’t move the football against the Raiders, Cowboys or Falcons, as the Eagles scored a grand total of 34 points in their three games prior to the NFC Championship. Then against the Vikings, Foles had a near perfect game. I’m expecting ‘regular’ Foles in a game of this magnitude away from home, not ‘best QB in the NFL’ Foles like we saw against Minnesota. Last, but not least, experience matters. The Super Bowl is a unique animal – endless hype and distractions leading up to the game, a truly endless pregame that leaves players without adrenaline by kickoff, and a halftime show so long that Bill Belichick had his team sit for 40 minutes in practice this week just to get the feel for how long it was! A team that played in the big game last year has a legitimate edge against a team that didn’t. When we’re talking about seven previous Super Bowl trips for the Pats in the modern era compared to seven combined trips to the Super Bowl for the entirety of the Eagles roster, that matters. Potentially, it matters a lot! Pats by a TD or more. Take New England. |
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02-04-18 | Wisconsin v. Maryland OVER 132 | 63-68 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin – Maryland OVER (#821-822) Abbreviated write-up on a very busy Super Bowl morning… I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. First, neither team is playing a lick of defense right now. The Badgers and Terps rank #11 and #13 in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency; not exactly ‘lockdown’ defenses. Expect both teams to get more than their fair share of transition opportunities and open looks. Second, the Badgers have had a somewhat unlikely roll of the dice when it comes to three point shooting lately. For the full season, they’re well within the ‘normal’ range offensively and defensively with the three-ball; 33% makes, 36% allowed. But in their last five games, neither Wisconsin nor their opponent has shot better than 28% from beyond the arc. That’s a random fluctuation working in our favor here – the Terps have hit 40% from three point range in their last five games…. Lastly, this game is primed to be a foul fest. Both squads have had issues with fouling all year – part of their defensive struggles. Plus, this pointspread range is right in the wheelhouse for some late game ‘foul and three pointer’ shenanigans, should we need them. Take the Over. |
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02-03-18 | Wizards -3.5 v. Magic | 115-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#503) Two key factors stand out for me in this matchup. First, Orlando is coming off a win. The Magic are 7-31 since their 8-4 start….which was the last time they won two games in a row. The last time they won and covered two in a row at home came back in October! For the season, coming off a home win, the Magic have a grand total of one pointspread cover, good for an 86% bet-against rate in this particular role. Coming off a game in which the Magic hit 18 three pointers and shot 54% from the floor, it’s not hard to anticipate some significant regression. Secondly, the Wizards are playing better basketball without John Wall right now than they were with their All Star point guard in the lineup. The betting markets, of course, have adjusted Washington’s power rating downwards. But the quotes and the results have shown a dramatic improvement with Tim Frazier and Tomas Satoransky. Washington is3-0 SU and ATS since Wall got hurt, averaging 32.3 assists, compared to 23.7 for the full season. All Star Bradley Beal: “Everybody eats. That's our motto. Everybody eats when we move the ball." Head coach Scott Brooks: “We know we are going to be without (Wall) for a stretch of games. We have met, and we have talked and we are trying to figure out ways how we can win and still be effective because we have a prideful group, guys that care.” Undervalued commodity in Washington right now….. Take the Wizards. |
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02-03-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas UNDER 152.5 | 74-79 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Texas – Oklahoma UNDER (#623-624) Abbreviated write-up on a very busy Super Bowl weekend in Vegas. Here’s the quote from Shaka Smart, talking about how he wants to defend Oklahoma’s breakout frosh, point guard Trae Young: “Trae is having a historic season. He’s the engine that makes them go. As good as he is at scoring, he does a phenomenal job moving the ball around. You’ve got to try to limit something he does, either preventing him from getting huge points or setting up his teammates from scoring big.” Texas has been fairly adept at creating defensive gameplans to shut down star players – that’s how Shaka Smart got this job to begin with! And that’s bad news for Young and the Sooners; a team that hasn’t played a single ‘grinder’ all year. In each of Oklahoma’s first 21 games this season, at least one team has reached 80 points, with the Sooners able to push the pace effectively. That’s why Oklahoma currently ranks #5 in the nation in tempo and #4 in the nation in fewest seconds per shot on offense. Texas, in contrast, ranks #275 in pace and #306 in defensive seconds per shot. The Longhorns don’t give up anything in transition, and low post defensive stud Mo Bamba is the nation’s leading shot blocker patrolling the paint. That’s why the Longhorns rank #4 in the nation in defensive efficiency, with Top 20 defensive rankings for opponents effective field goal percentage and blocked shot percentage. Even if the pace is relatively fast here, I’m not expecting much offensive execution. Take the Under. |
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02-03-18 | Davidson -6.5 v. George Washington | 87-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Davidson (#535) Abbreviated write-ups on a very busy Super Bowl weekend in Vegas. For additional reading, check out the link below: https://www.gwhatchet.com/2018/01/31/mens-basketball-downed-by-duquesne-in-two-point-contest/ There was nothing fraudulent about Davidson’s 72-45 domination vs. George Washington when these two teams met last month. The Wildcats defense smothered the Colonials from start to finish, while Bob McKillop’s squad got good looks all night long, shooting 54% from the floor. I’m expecting more of the same today. GWU has precious little home court advantage these days. They are 2-7 in A-10 play, both wins coming in the role of a favorite against weak foes, The Colonials played as well as they could against Duquesne on Wednesday, shooting 51% from the floor. They still lost outright as favorites….. Davidson has shown the ability to blow out bad teams on the road – they beat Fordham by 30, George Mason by 27 and Charlotte by 15 in previous tries as road chalk. In fact, ten of their eleven victories this year have come by double digit margins. Only one of these two teams is capable of playing any defense. And the Wildcats 77% free throw shooting for the season is key in this pointspread range, should Davidson need to sink some free throws to ice it. Take Davidson |
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02-03-18 | Kentucky +2 v. Missouri | 60-69 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#551) Abbreviated write-ups on a very busy Super Bowl weekend in Vegas. For additional reading, check out the links below: http://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-basketball-men/article198160059.html https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/college/kentucky/2018/02/02/kentucky-basketball-stock-watch-uk-wildcats/1085961001/ The Alabama quotes after losing at home to Missouri earlier in the week – a game that snapped Mizzou’s three game losing streak – were not loaded with complements about how well the Tigers performed. No, the quotes were all about ‘Bama’s lack of energy and flat effort; not Missouri stepping up. In other words, I’m not convinced that Missouri has turned the corner on their mediocre campaign. They’ve already lost on this floor to both Auburn and Florida, and it’s surely worth noting that they haven’t beaten Kentucky even once since joining the SEC. Kentucky, on the other hand, does appear to have ‘turned the corner’ following back-2-back losses to South Carolina and Florida. It’s been three straight victories for the Wildcats since, including one of the best halves of basketball any team has played all year in their last road game, rallying back from 17 points down to beat West Virginia in West Virginia. This quote from Bob Huggins stood out to me after that game: “They took us out of some things. And the truth of the matter is they are just better than we are. They’re more talented.” They’re more talented than Missouri too! Take Kentucky. |
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02-02-18 | Heat +4 v. 76ers | 97-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#809) The Miami Heat have been remarkably adept at avoiding losing streaks over the past two months. Following a single loss — like the one Miami suffered in Cleveland earlier in the week — the Heat have been money in the bank: 8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS. That includes some impressive road victories — at Charlotte, at Milwaukee and at Boston, in three recent examples. This is no short term run either — this stretch started more than two months ago. With a deep lineup that has actually been buoyed by their issues with injuries all season; the Heat remain a ‘bet-on’ team, even after their extended stretch of success, especially in the underdog role: 6-1 ATS in their last seven tries. Philadelphia is in a mini-slump, losers of three straight while struggling on the defensive end of the court. Head coach Brett Brown knows what’s up with his squad, following their latest loss: ‘That’s a .500 team. That’s what a team like that does. You go up and down, up and down, up and down…..that’s part of the wild ride we’re on with a bunch of 20-year olds figuring stuff up.” Defensive this squad is hurting; a dicey team to lay points with at this stage of the campaign in a game that has all the makings of a ‘down to the final possession’ type of contest. Take the Heat. |
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02-01-18 | Arizona State v. Washington +3 | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#566) For additional reading, check out these links: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-basketball/uws-matisse-thybulle-and-dominic-green-preview-big-matchup-against-no-25-asu/ http://www.dailyuw.com/sports/article_89175f14-070a-11e8-9428-2f710a27c39c.html The concept here is simple: Arizona State lives and dies based on their perimeter shooting, a team that went 12-0 to open the season in large part due to their ability to drain three point shots. When that perimeter shooting goes cold, the Sun Devils aren’t winning games or covering pointspreads very often, as clearly evidenced by their current 1-7-1 ATS run since the start of PAC-12 play. Washington first year head coach Mike Hopkins was Jim Boeheim’s assistant at Syracuse for the previous 22 seasons. He took the Huskies job this past offseason and immediately started introducing Boeheim’s defensive concepts – the 2-3 matchup zone - to his veteran squad, a team with four returning starters from last year. The results have been impressive. The Huskies rank first in the PAC-12 in 3-point field goal percentage defense, first in blocked shots, second in steals and second in scoring defense. They’ve held foes to 28% shooting from three point range in their last five games. Arizona State hasn’t seen a zone defense like this one yet this season, and it stands out as a particularly problematic matchup for them. Hopkins, talking about his team’s defense: “Learning a new system, I might be surprised with how well they’ve adapted and adjusted and believed in the zone. We’re starting to get really good at it. I think there were some growing pains, but the way that they’ve responded with it has been probably the biggest surprise. But I think that’s been probably one of the biggest reasons we’ve been winning.” Coming off an impressive game in which they dished out 20 assists in a blowout over in-state rival Wazzou, look for the Huskies to continue their winning ways at home tonight. Take Washington. |
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01-31-18 | Mavs -3 v. Suns | 88-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#715) The Mavericks have been underdogs in each of their last seven ballgames; only one of which they found a way to win. Five of the seven games have been competitive, with Dallas falling short by seven points or less. They had one blowout win and one double digit loss. But the Mavs are coming off a particularly frustrating home loss to the Heat on Monday Night, a game where their energy and effort weren’t there for most of the first three quarters before a late rally came up short. They came out sluggish in the first half of their previous game, as well, a two point loss at Denver. This quote from Harrison Barnes shows some frustration….and also a sense of urgency for tonight’s affair: Barnes: “We're showing that we can have these comebacks. But that's not the issue. It's what we're doing before that to put ourselves in that position. Look at the other 44 minutes, that's the biggest thing for us right now." Head coach Rick Carlisle concurred: “We have to play like that the whole game. am pretty upbeat about a lot of things, but I don't think you make a living in this league with moral victories. About, 'Hey, we did some good things down the stretch.' It's not going to get you there." Playing Phoenix in Phoenix is the optimal elixir for any opponent looking to get back on track. The Suns have gone from bad to worse in recent weeks. They’ve lost five straight – four by double digit margins in non-competitive efforts – and eight of their last nine overall. With an 8-17 SU /9-15-1 ATS mark at Talking Stick Arena this year, we’re not talking about a home court that matters very much. And the quotes coming out of Phoenix aren’t very positive these days. Interim head coach Jay Triano, following their latest no-show, allowing the offensively challenged Grizzlies to hang 120 on them earlier in the week: “We're banged up. Even guys who are playing are limping and trying to play through injury right now, but we still have to be better at the defensive end.” Good luck with that, coach, even if Devin Booker (ribs) is back in the lineup tonight for the home dog. Take the Mavericks. |
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01-31-18 | Connecticut v. UCF OVER 124 | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Take UConn – UCF OVER (#761-762) Tacko Fall might not be a household name in the college basketball betting world, but he probably should be! UCF’s 7-6 center spent most of the season patrolling the paint, swatting away shots, snaring rebounds and leading the Golden Knights to a #4 national ranking in defensive efficiency as of this morning. That #4 defensive efficiency is flat out lying, because Tacko Fall is hurt, out for the year. In the two games since the injury, UCF has flown Over the total both times by an average of 14 points per game. It’s surely worth noting that the Knights just got their best OFFENSIVE player back from an extended injury absence, with BJ Taylor pouring in 37 points over that same two game span. The first meeting between these two teams came three weeks ago -- with Fall in and Taylor out – and was totaled at 124.5. This game is totaled even lower, despite the obvious need for a major market adjustment to UCF’s totals ratings. We don’t need a track meet or a strong shooting game for either team to cash this Over bet. Let’s simply take advantage of a marketplace that is factoring in season long stats far more than they should when it comes to this particular matchup. Take the OVER. |
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01-30-18 | Xavier -4.5 v. St. John's | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Xavier (#547) For additional reading on this game, click these links from local sources: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/xavier/2018/01/29/streaking-xavier-university-men-ready-slumping-st-johns/1073921001/ https://nypost.com/2018/01/29/st-johns-best-hope-left-is-to-pull-off-a-miracle/ To say that things have gone south for St Johns over the last month is something of an understatement. The Red Storm won only eight games in Chris Mullin’s first season on the job and went 14-19 last year; shut out of the postseason. But the Johnnies opened up 2017-18 with a world of promise; 10-2 SU in their dozen non-conference games. That was then, this is now. The Johnnies have now lost ten straight. They are 4-0 ATS as double digit underdogs during that span, but 0-6 ATS when NOT catching +11 or higher. Since their heartbreaking double OT loss at fellow Big East bottom feeder Georgetown last weekend, we’ve seen the Red Storm offense collapse, culminating in a 29% shooting effort in a 25 point loss at Butler. How do the Red Storm bounce back from that while taking on an elite Musketeers squad? Not easily! This offense hasn’t done all that much since starting guard Marcus LoVett got hurt. St. John’s now ranks 302nd in the nation in field goal percentage (42.0), and 319th in 3-point percentage (31.5); not a team that I trust against an elite opponent capable of lighting up the scoreboard. While Trevon Bluiett is the unquestioned senior leader on Xavier, the supporting cast around him is deep and talented. Chris Mack’s squad has eight other players in the regular rotation, all of whom average at least 15 minutes and seven points per game. That type of quality depth is why the Musketeers have been so good at extending leads, including a 7-2 ATS mark as single digit favorites. The Johnnies are 0-4 ATS this year as single digit underdogs. This game is a mismatch being priced like a competitive contest. Take Xavier. |
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01-30-18 | Nuggets v. Spurs -7 | 104-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take San Antonio (#514) We’ve got a strong ‘bet-on’ vs. strong ‘bet-against’ here, setting the stage for a Big Ticket sized wager in San Antonio tonight! Let me go through the ‘bet-on’ portion of the equation first. The Spurs went through an ugly stretch of basketball for most of January, 7-8 SU over a 15 game span. That stretch culminated with their worst home loss of the season last Friday Night, blown out by the 76ers, a game where San Antonio set season lows in points scored (78), points scored in a half (31) and points scored in a quarter (13). Greg Popovich, following the game: “If I was a San Antonio fan tonight, I'd ask for my money back." The Spurs bounced back on Sunday with a 15 point win over Sacramento, but that margin doesn’t tell the true story of that ballgame. The Spurs finished +18 on the glass and had a truly impressive 33-7 assist-to-turnover ratio. But Sacramento was raining three’s all night, hitting 18-34 from beyond the arc. De’Aaron Fox hit a career best 6-6 from three point range and Vince Carter (who entered the game with 25 made triples on the season) hit 5-7. The fact that the Spurs still won and covered as double digit chalk speaks volumes about their intensity level right now. San Antonio is a ‘bet-on’ team all the way at home this year: 21-4 SU, 17-7-1 ATS. They’ve been nothing short of outstanding as big chalk, 10-2 ATS when laying -7 or higher. The Spurs have 16 wins by a dozen points or more already this season, a team that’s more than capable of putting their foot down and stomping a lesser foe. That’s exactly what they’ve done to the Nuggets in every recent meeting: 112-80, 121-97, 118-84 and 127-99 in the four Mike Malone – Gregg Popovich matchups since the start the 2016-17 campaign; one blowout after the nextt. And make no mistake about it – this is a ‘throwaway’ game for the road underdog. Denver battled down to the wire last night, losing a one point heartbreaker to the Celtics. Starters Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Gary Harris all logged 35+ minutes in that defeat, and they will be without their first starter, Mason Plumlee, who suffered a calf injury last night. This isn’t the only showdown for the Nuggets this week. After the second of back-2-backs here, they return home for huge statement games against the Thunder and Warriors on Thursday and Saturday. No surprise here if Coach Malone uses his bench liberally tonight if things go south for the Nuggets early……which I strongly suspect they will. Big Ticket: Take the Spurs. |
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01-29-18 | Celtics +1.5 v. Nuggets | 111-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#711) The betting market numbers for the Boston Celtics do not mesh one iota with my personal power ratings. My ratings show the Celtics should be favorites in this ballgame, and this is one spot where I have little hesitation betting what my numbers tell me to bet! The markets, on the other hand, are worried about a Celtics letdown off their intense game against Golden State on Saturday Night. I’m not buying that argument. Boston has been an underdog on ten different occasions this season. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in those games, consistently and repeatedly stepping up effectively, particularly on the highway; including a 2-0 ATS mark as road dogs on their current road trip. They’ve been moneywinners off a loss: 5-2 SU and ATS on the highway following a single defeat like the one they suffered at Oracle Arena in their last game. Boston is 16-7 SU on the road this year and they’ve won SU twice on their last three visits to the Pepsi Center; a ‘bet-on’ team in this pointspread range and a ‘bet-on’ team in this role. The Celtics remain the best defensive team in the NBA, by a fairly wide margin, allowing just 100 points per 100 possessions. Their January numbers are ‘off the charts’ good, holding foes to 95.3 points per 100 possessions prior to their spread covering loss at Golden State on Saturday: 4.5 points BETTER than their elite season long numbers. Let’s not forget that the Celtics literally have an elite defender at every position. Based on the ‘real +/-‘ advanced metric defensive stats, the likes of Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Aron Baynes all rank among the top players at their respective positions defensively, even with key defender Marcus Smart out tonight. Denver has been at the other end of the ‘value’ spectrum of late. They’ve covered only one pointspread during their current three game winning streak; while covering only two pointspreads in their last eleven games overall, against the lottery bound Knicks and Grizzlies; both bottom feeders. And from a defensive standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two squads. The Celtics can get a key stop late in a tight game. Denver? Not so much….Take the Celtics. |
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01-28-18 | Kings v. Spurs -11 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Take San Antonio (#814) The Spurs are coming off their worst home game of the season (by a fairly wide margin); blown out by Philadelphia. San Antonio set season lows in points scored (78), points scored in a half (31) and points scored in a quarter (13). They hit only 3-24 from three point range while getting outrebounded by 14 and forcing only nine turnovers. It was only their fourth loss of the season on this floor, a team that has dominated both SU and ATS in their own building: 20-4 SU, 16-7-1 ATS so far this season. Whenever I see a quote like this from San Antonio head coach Greg Popovich, I’m interested in backing the Spurs next time out: “If I was a San Antonio fan tonight, I'd ask for my money back." This quote from new starting point guard Dejounte Murray stands out as well: “The Sixers just outcompeted us on both ends. We just had a bad night and best thing about it is that we can figure out what we did, learn from it, get better and be ready to go on Sunday." It’s not hard to make a case for San Antonio off a bad loss, even in this double digit pointspread range. The Spurs have been lined at -7 or higher on 11 previous occasions this season. They’ve gone 9-2 ATS in those ballgames and have 15 wins by a dozen points or more already this season, a team that’s more than capable of putting their foot down and stomping a lesser foe. It’s surely worth noting San Antonio’s perfect 7-0 ATS mark in their last seven tries off a SU loss. And Sacramento is most assuredly a lesser foe. The Kings are riding a two game winning streak, matching their longest of the season. They’re 3-11 SU, 5-9 ATS off a single win this season, and 0-fer the year both SU and ATS following two consecutive victories. They won’t have emerging low post force Willie Cauley-Stein in the lineup tonight either; their leading scorer the last time these two teams met. Fat & happy vs. motivated & hungry here, with the motivated team being the vastly superior squad. Expect a blowout…. Take the Spurs. |
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01-28-18 | Lakers v. Raptors UNDER 218 | 111-123 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Toronto – LA Lakers UNDER (#807-808) Toronto has a defensive mindset these days, particularly at home. The Raptors have held four of their last five opponents to 97 points or less. Their last three home games stayed Under the total by more than 25 points each time. And they’ve just had a bit of a break, playing only two games during the past eight days. Point guard Fred Van Vleet, talking about the extra practice sessions this week: “I think we got back to our defensive fundamentals.” Head coach Dwayne Casey talked to his team Saturday about being ready from the start against the Lakers. "They're going to come out guns a-blazing. They're a running team." The Raptors transition defense is nothing short of outstanding, and they’re putting extra emphasis on getting back today. Expect the Lakers to be forced to do most of their scoring through their halfcourt offense, not an area of strength these days. LA, too, is putting extra emphasis on defense these days, and it’s paying off – they’ve won four straight and eight of their last ten while going 6-3 to the Under in their last nine. Head coach Luke Walton: "Defensive stops. That is how you win consistently. So many NBA games come down to the end, and the players in this league are so talented that if you are not able to count on getting stops, it is 50-50 who wins those games." The team is buying into Walton’s approach right now. Forward Brandon Ingram: "We're staying together, we're thinking defense first. The coaches talk about it every single day, every time we practice, every time we come into games, and we just talk about the defensive end first before anything.” Take the Under. |
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01-28-18 | 76ers +4 v. Thunder | 112-122 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#811) Andre Roberson ruptured his Achilles late in OKC’s blowout win at Detroit yesterday. Make no mistake about it – Andre Roberson matters – A LOT! Roberson barely moves the needle on OKC’s power rating, not a pointspread difference maker – he only averages 5.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. But when it comes to defensive acumen, Roberson is the Thunder’s top on-ball defender, by a fairly wide margin. These stats tell a remarkable story. According to ESPN Stats & Info, in 539 minutes with Roberson joining Westbrook, George, Anthony and Adams on the floor, the Thunder allow 95.9 points per 100 possessions; in 402 minutes for the Thunder's Big Four without Roberson, they allow 114.5 points per 100. Yes, that’s the equivalent of going from (by far) the best defense in the NBA to (by far) the worst! OKC knows what’s coming. Russell Westbrook: “A lot changes. A lot of things that's not seen on the court, a lot of things not seen in the stat sheet -- and that's a huge part. Like I've always said, he's a huge part of our team's success. And obviously, with him going down, we've got to be able to figure out and make up for the things he brings to the game defensively and offensively." Steven Adams: “He's a huge part of our team and why we win. It's a huge blow to us." On the second of back-2-backs, after reeling off their seventh consecutive win yesterday, this is NOT a ‘step up’ spot for the home favorite! Philly lost a two point heartbreaker in Triple OT to the Thunder when these two teams met last month; the type of loss that teams remember. And the Sixers are playing their best ball of the year RIGHT NOW, with wins over the Raptors, Celtics, Bucks, Bulls and Spurs in the last two weeks alone; a ‘bet-on’ team again today! Take the 76ers. |
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01-27-18 | Stanford -6 v. UCLA | 73-89 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#665) The Bruins snapped their three game losing streak with a win over Cal in their last game. They still didn’t cover the pointspread, a clear indicator that UCLA remains an overvalued commodity at this stage of the season. And Steve Alford, who started four guards in the win over the Bears won’t be able to do that tonight against Stanford; not with the Cardinal starting 6-9 Michael Humphrey, 6-8 Reid Travis and 6-8 Kezie Okpala in their front court. From a pointspread perspective, Stanford is the hottest team in the PAC-12, notching seven consecutive pointspread covers. Both losses during this span – against the two best teams in the conference, USC and Arizona – came by five points or less; competitive defeats. Jerod Haase didn’t particularly impress me as a head coach in his first season with the Cardinal last year, as Stanford finished with a losing SU and ATS record. And the Cardinal struggled coming out of the gate again this year; covering only one pointspread in their first eight lined games while losing outright to the likes of Eastern Washington, Portland State and Long Beach State while getting blown off the court in ‘step-up’ games vs. Florida, Kansas and North Carolina. That was then, this is now! All of that losing left the Cardinal thoroughly devalued in the betting markets just as they were finally showing signs of ‘getting it’ under Haase; hence their current STRONG ATS uptick, a ‘bet-on’ team at this stage of the campaign. Throw in the continued development of low post stud Reid Travis (19.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per game), and the Cardinal are MUCH better now than their full season power ratings would indicate. UCLA is NOT a bet-on team, still struggling to find their rhythm and chemistry following the whole ‘shoplifting in China’ debacle. Steve Alford doesn’t have much quality depth on his roster these days, with only eight players getting consistent court time. His team has been a moneyloser as chalk this season, in contrast to Stanford’s 60% ATS mark when catching points, even AFTER that rough start. The first meeting between these two teams went into overtime and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see this game come down to the final possession as well. Too many points! Take Stanford. |
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01-27-18 | Celtics +10 v. Warriors | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston (#509) The numbers don’t lie. Boston has been an underdog of +3 or higher on seven different occasions this season. The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in those games, consistently and repeatedly stepping up in class effectively, particularly on the highway. Golden State at -7 or higher? Just 16-21 ATS, moneylosers as big chalk. The Celtics have given the Warriors fits in every recent meeting. Boston was +7 at home in the first meeting, a game they won 92-88, holding Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 8-32 shooting. The Celtics won SU on this floor last year, a 99-86 victory as +7 underdogs. They won SU on this floor the previous season as well, as 11 point underdogs. Dating back even further with these Brad Stevens vs. Steve Kerr matchups, the Celtics lost by only three on this floor in 2015 as 18 point underdogs and by only two on this floor in 2014 as 11.5 point dogs. In the last ten meetings between these two teams, the Warriors have won by more than eight points only twice, and both of those games were played in Boston. In five meetings over the last three seasons, the Warriors have a grand total of ONE straight up win in regulation. The Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA, by a fairly wide margin, allowing just 99.8 points per 100 possessions. Their January numbers are ‘off the charts’ good, holding foes to 95.3 points per 100 possession: 4.5 points BETTER than their elite season long numbers. Let’s not forget that the Celtics literally have an elite defender at every position. Based on the ‘real +/-‘ advanced metric defensive stats, the likes of Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Aron Baynes all rank among the top players at their respective positions defensively, even with key defender Marcus Smart out tonight. Golden State isn’t covering pointspreads at home these days, a consistently overvalued commodity. In fact, the Warriors have a grand total of ONE pointspread cover on this floor since the last week of December; and that lone cover came by exactly half a point. The Celtics are live to WIN this game in SU fashion, and if they don’t, I expect them to battle the Warriors right down to the wire. Too many points! Big Ticket: Take the Celtics. |
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01-27-18 | Iowa v. Nebraska -3.5 | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#650) My clients and I cashed yet another winner backing Nebraska in their road win at Rutgers earlier in the week. This isn’t new or different – the Huskers have been a real meal ticket for us in recent weeks thanks to their RED HOT 11-1 ATS mark in their last 12 ballgames. And yet we’ve seen the ‘wiseguy’ steam pour in AGAINST Nebraska in early betting action on Saturday. This isn’t new or different -- $$ showed against Nebraska in that game at the RAC earlier in the week, and in their spread covering five point loss to Ohio State before that, and in their 20 point blowout over Michigan before that. The wiseguys keep fading this team and they keep losing… I love this quote from Huskers senior guard Anton Gill: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” This Husker program has only one trip to the Big Dance in the last 20 years (a first round loss to Baylor in 2014), and Tim Miles has them playing like a hungry, focused team. Iowa got off the schnied with a blowout win over Wisconsin earlier in the week on a hot shooting night at home. But this team isn’t primed to win many road games. They lost by margin at Virginia Tech, Indiana, Iowa State, Maryland and Rutgers; their lone road win and cover coming in OT at lowly Illinois in a game they trailed by 19 before the Illini fell apart. From a defensive standpoint, the Hawkeyes numbers are downright ugly in Big 10 play; dead last in total defense and #13 (of 14 Big 10 teams) in effective field goal percentage allowed. No surprise here if the Huskers run the Hawkeyes out of the gym….. Take Nebraska. |
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01-27-18 | Virginia +3.5 v. Duke | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Virginia (#533) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game) There are two significant differences between this year’s Virginia team and Tony Bennett’s recent versions; all of which have been very good teams, but none of them elite. First, the 2018 Cavaliers can hit perimeter shots. Top three scorers Kyle Guy, Devon Hall and Ty Jerome are all at 42% or better from beyond the arc. And second, Bennett’s ‘Pack Line’ defense isn’t just shutting teams down in the halfcourt this year – they’re forcing turnovers in bunches, ranked #11 in the nation in turnover percentage (they were #248 as recently as two years ago). Duke excels playing uptempo, ranked #13 in the nation in offensive pace. Virginia ranks dead last: #351 in defensive pace – they don’t give up anything in transition and force opponents to work deep into the shot clock with their offensive possessions. Duke’s four frosh starters haven’t seen defense like this before.... The Cavs lost by only one point on their last visit to Cameron Indoor Arena, cashing a winning bet as a short road underdog. Expect another feisty effort (and pointspread cover) from Tony Bennett’s squad today! Take Virginia |
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01-26-18 | Nets +6.5 v. Bucks | 91-116 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#809) If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! My clients and I have cashed winning bets supporting Brooklyn in each of the first two games on their road trip – an outright upset win at Detroit on Sunday and a one point loss as 9.5 point underdogs at OKC on Tuesday. This isn’t new or different – the Nets have been cashing winning bets as a road underdog all year, to the tune of 16-7 (70%) for the full season on the highway. Catching +4 or higher, the Nets are 20-7 ATS for the full season, consistent, under-the-radar moneymakers in this underdog role. In fact, Kenny Atkinson’s squad has cashed one winning bet on the highway after the next of late; a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Plain and simple – the Nets are completely off the national radar; they’re lottery bound once again, but they’re playing well enough on both ends of the court to be a consistently undervalued commodity; a ‘bet-on’ squad right now. The Bucks are in a classic ‘trap’ spot. Giannis Antetokounmpo is returning to the lineup off a two game absence, and the Bucks are coming off a win. When a superstar returns off an absence, we regularly see his teammates let down a little bit after carrying the load while he was out. And the Bucks have been nothing short of dismal coming off a victory: 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last five tries. Their last two game winning streak came back in 2017. ‘Live dog’ here! Take the Nets |
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01-26-18 | Lakers v. Bulls -4 | 108-103 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#814) I can keep this one short & sweet. I want the Bulls off a ‘no-show’ loss, like the one they suffered in Philly on Wednesday. The Bulls were never in the game, down by 13 before the first quarter was through, and trailing by 20+ for most of the second half. Head coach Fred Hoiberg: "We didn't come out with any grit or toughness. And then it just kind of became a 'my-turn' shot. A guy took a bad one and we said, 'If he's going to take a bad one, then I'm going to take a bad one.' And it just kind of trickled down. It's disappointing." Bulls shooting guard Zack Levine: “We have to bring energy. We really aren't at that point where we can turn it on at any time…..Regardless, we have to go out there and play for one another and compete. That's the main thing. We just didn't bring it (Wednesday night) and we can't have nights like those anymore." The Bulls have been excellent favorites this season, 5-2 ATS when laying points; including a 2-0 mark at -3 or higher. They’ve been excellent when stepping down in class at home; notching six consecutive ATS covers on this floor vs. sub .500 road squads. The Lakers are 6-15 SU on the highway this year, most assuredly below .500 away from home. LA closed out their homestand with three consecutive victories, now 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six at the Staples Center. But they’re not hitting free throws, their defensive and rebounding numbers are mediocre at best, and this is one game where they’re not facing the right team at the right time. Expect a STRONG showing from the Bulls at the United Center this evening where they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 tries, a consistently undervalued commodity. Take the Bulls. |
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01-26-18 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 208.5 | 97-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Toronto UNDER (#805-806) It’s no accident that the Jazz have seen their defensive improve by leaps and bounds since Rudy Gobert returned to the lineup last week. Gobert has blocked at least three shots in each of his first four games back; a difference maker in the low post. Utah just held Detroit to 95 points in a game that went to overtime; winning SU despite shooting less than 40% from the floor and making only 12 free throw attempts. If you watched the game, you already know – the Pistons certainly didn’t have many open looks. With Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz have been totaled higher than 205 only twice -- once against the Rockets, once against the Clippers; two very clear ‘Over’ teams when it comes to both offensive efficiency and pace. Utah is most assuredly not an elite offensive team, especially with perimeter sharpshooter and second leading scorer Rodney Hood expected to miss again tonight. Yet we’re looking at a total north of 205 tonight in a game where the Raptors, too, are primed to bring a strong defensive effort. Toronto has held three of their last four opponents to 93 points or less. Their last two home games stayed Under the total by more than 25 points each time. And they’ve just had a bit of a break, with only one game during the past week. Point guard Fred Van Vleet, talking about the extra practice sessions this week: “I think we got back to our defensive fundamentals.” Every meeting between these two teams since 2015 has been totaled between 190.5 and 198.5, yet the markets have this one priced a full ten points higher. Let’s take advantage! Take the Under |
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01-25-18 | Utah v. Arizona State -8 | 80-77 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#556) We’ve got a solid ‘buy low’ opportunity with Arizona State at home tonight as they take on Utah. The markets have crashed on Bobby Hurley’s squad in recent weeks, after their 12-0 start went south with a 2-4 opening to their PAC-12 season. Arizona State hasn’t covered a pointspread since before Christmas – there’s no Sun Devils betting bandwagon any more, like there was earlier in the season But this is still the same team that beat San Diego State, Xavier, Kansas State, Kansas and Vanderbilt in non-conference play, with four of those victories coming by double digit margins. They were good enough to beat Utah in Salt Lake City earlier this month. And from all indications, the Sun Devils are primed to bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Head coach Bobby Hurley: “We’re at a juncture where we’re sitting at 3-4 in the league and nationally, people still think we’re pretty good and I know we’re good, but we kinda gotta break out of the middle of the pack right now and try to win a set of games which we haven’t done this year in league play.” Hurley is confident that leading scorer Tra Holder is primed for a bounceback showing after shooting less than 30% from the floor in his last five games: “I think he’s in a way better frame of mind after the Cal game. I think he’s put those (rough) couple of games behind him.” And Arizona State’s home court means something these days. The Sun Devils home game against Oregon two weeks ago featured their largest crowd since 2010! Hurley: “It’s been electric playing there and we need that this week.” Utah got run out of the gym in each of their last two road tilts, losing by 17 at USC and by 19 at UCLA. They’ve lost the rebounding battle in every single previous road game this season while struggling defensively: 47% shooting allowed while giving up ten three pointers per game. Against a sharpshooting team like the Sun Devils, that’s a recipe for trouble…. Take Arizona State. |
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01-24-18 | Jazz +2.5 v. Pistons | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#705) Stan Van Gundy is certainly a very knowledgeable X’s and O’s guy. He’s fairly personable with the media – reporters tend to like him. As a head coach, he’s taken three different teams to the playoffs. But when things go south, my experience with Van Gundy is as ‘bet-against’ as it gets. His constant preaching and criticism eventually gets old, and his team starts to tune him out. This clearly happened towards the end of his tenure in Orlando, and from all indications it’s happening right now in Detroit. The results do not lie. The Pistons have lost five straight and nine of their last twelve since starting point guard Reggie Jackson got hurt, including home losses to Charlotte, Washington and Brooklyn in their last three tries as home chalk. Gundy doesn’t know what to do, because what he’s doing isn’t working. His quote following the Pistons home loss to the Nets earlier in the week: “I don't what's with us right now. We're not playing hard enough, consistently enough. We played hard at times. I thought we fought our way back and really gave it a good fight for being down 15, but we're not consistent enough at the defensive end and that, I don't understand." Pistons leading scorer Tobias Harris gives us a nice ‘bet-against’ quote here (and a veiled criticism of his head coach): "We're not playing off of instincts, how we used to play. Now, we're playing off a little bit of doubt. It's never a good formula for winning.” Utah finally has a healthy Rudy Gobert back in the lineup, but they are coming off an ugly loss themselves, blown out in Atlanta to open up their road trip in a game where the starters COMBINED for only 40 points while committing 15 turnovers. Here’s your ‘bet-on’ quote from rookie stud Donovan Mitchell: "There were times where we kind of looked like we didn't want to play, myself included. That's not us. That's not our identity. I think we've just got to come out with more life and more energy. I think if we play like we played here, there will be a lot of nights like this." I’m expecting a strong Jazz bounceback here against a Pistons team that just hasn’t bounced back of late….. Take the Jazz. |
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01-24-18 | Nebraska +2 v. Rutgers | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#735) My clients and I have cashed a pair of winners backing Nebraska in recent weeks, including their recent spread covering two point loss in OT at Penn State in a road tilt less than two weeks ago. And frankly, from all indications, the Cornhuskers are still an undervalued commodity as they travel to New Jersey to take on Rutgers at the RAC tonight. Senior guard Anton Gill: “We’ve got to find a way to get it done…. And I’m not into moral victories. Those don’t get you into the tournament.” With four double digit scorers, the Huskers have a balanced attack. They’ve won seven of their last ten overall, including a road win at Northwestern and spread covers at Purdue, Penn State and Ohio State. From a pointspread perspective, the Huskers have been undervalued for the last month, 10-1 ATS in their last eleven lined contests. Rutgers has the effort, but they don’t have the talent. The Scarlet Knights are a woeful offensive ballclub. In Big 10 play, they rank dead last in the conference in effective field goal percentage; bad news against a Nebraska defense that currently ranks #1 in the conference in effective FG % allowed on defense. When you’re ranked #343 in the nation in effective field goal percentage and you’re facing a hungry team that plays defense, it’s clearly a problem. The Scarlet Knights lost on this floor to the likes of Hartford and Stony Brook in non-conference play; just 2-6 SU in their last nine overall. Both teams have faced Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan and Wisconsin already in Big 10 play. Against those four opponents alone, Nebraska was more than 70 points better on the floor; dominance that is clearly not reflected in this relatively cheap pointspread. Take Nebraska. |
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01-23-18 | Texas A&M -2.5 v. LSU | Top | 65-77 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#553) My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner with Texas A&M on Saturday in their double digit win over Missouri. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “On Christmas Day, Texas A&M was ranked as the #5 team in the country. Then the injury bug started to bite, and it bit hard. Of the ten players in Billy Kennedy’s base rotation, only two guys have been able to suit up in every game. Starters DJ Hogg, Admon Gilder, Duane Wilson and Robert Williams all missed time, and the Aggies faced a very difficult opening part of their SEC schedule. “The end result from all those injuries? The Aggies are now sitting with a 1-5 record in SEC play. They’re at home. And they’re finally healthy again, coming off three strong days of practice sessions since their losing-streak snapping win over Ole Miss. And with all the key cogs healthy, let’s not forget how much playing time the role players have gotten in recent weeks; leaving the Aggies with depth, talent and the level of hunger that I’m looking for out of my home favorites.” With the win over Missouri, A&M is now 2-5 in SEC play. Remember, this team was #5 in the nation less than a month ago, and they’re healthy now. I’ve got a big ‘BUY’ sign on Billy Kennedy’s squad and their #12 ranked effective field goal percentage allowed on defense after holding the Tigers to 49 points over the weekend. Wilson, Gilder and Williams all missed the first meeting with LSU this season, while Hogg was very rusty in his first game back. The game was one that Texas A&M remembers well; a one point heartbreaking defeat at home thanks to a pair of three pointers in the final 12 seconds from LSU frosh point guard Tremont Waters, turning a five point Aggies lead into a loss. Now, with all hands on deck, A&M gets their shot at revenge; an elite, motivated ballclub that is undervalued in the betting markets following their rough start to SEC play. LSU went 2-16 in SEC play last year, and Will Wade’s first season on the job has had plenty of hiccups, particularly at home. The Tigers are just 2-4 SU in their last six home games where crowd support has been tepid at best, and their current three game overall skid doesn’t have the team playing with much confidence right now. Clear ‘bet-on’ vs. clear ‘bet against’ in a short turnaround revenge spot has this bettor stepping up his wager to Big Ticket size tonight! Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M. |
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01-23-18 | Nets +10 v. Thunder | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#505) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting Brooklyn in their outright upset win at Detroit on Sunday. This isn’t new or different – the Nets have been cashing winning bets as a road underdog all year, to the tune of 15-7 (68%) for the full season on the highway. Catching +4 or higher, the Nets are 19-7 YTD. And they’ve been great off a win too, 6-0 ATS in their last six tries off a SU victory. Brooklyn was +7 in Mexico City against OKC last month; a game the Nets won in outright fashion, rallying back from a 16 point deficit & proving they can match up with this Western Conference contender. Kenny Atkinson’s squad has cashed one winning bet on the highway after the next of late; a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Plain and simple – the Nets are completely off the national radar; they’re lottery bound once again, but they’re playing well enough on both ends of the court to be a consistently undervalued commodity; a ‘bet-on’ squad right now. That’s not the case for OKC. The Thunder have been OVER-valued from Day 1 this season – only the Cavs have a worse spread record than OKC’s 19-27 ATS mark. At -4 or higher, the Thunder are 9-20 ATS, a pointspread disaster area. And from a spot standpoint, this stands out:. The Thunder have NOT been able to get up against lesser foes, a combined 4-5 SU against the bottom three teams from each conference. Carmelo Anthony said it best: "We know we can not only play with the teams that are considered to be the best in this league. Not only play with them but win. We're very capable of winning those games and we've showed that playing against the best team that we can beat the best teams. I don't think that's ever been our issue as a team, it's beating the teams that we're supposed to beat. Sometimes it's night and day." Off their huge national TV win against the Cavs, expect some ‘night and day’ differential tonight in a major flat spot for the big home favorite. Take the Nets. |
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01-22-18 | Wizards -1.5 v. Mavs | 75-98 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#713) Washington was in a world of hurt as they travelled to Detroit last Friday Night. The Wizards had gone from thinking about a #2 or #3 seed in the East to just worrying about making the playoffs at all while in the midst of a 2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS run. The Wiz lost at home to Utah last week, prompting this quote from owner Ted Leonis after the game: “They’re playing like they’re too cool for school.” But things got worse, culminating in a truly ugly 133-109 loss at Charlotte. Head coach Scott Brooks: “It’s unacceptable the way we competed. We’re going to have to change some things and make sure we’re all going to compete. If not we’re going to have find guys who are going to compete.” So how did the Wizards respond to that adversity? By playing their best offensive game in weeks, hanging 76 points against the Pistons in Detroit – AFTER halftime! John Wall, following the game: “The way we just got whooped the other day, we definitely wanted to come back and get a win. We're a team that's just got to find some consistency on both ends of the floor." I’m looking at the Wizards as a hungry team right now, and something of an undervalued commodity in the betting markets. That’s not the case for the Dallas Mavericks! Dallas enjoyed an extended ATS hot streak following their 2-14 SU start, 17-6 ATS in their next 23 ballgames (16-6-1 vs. the closing line). But, as is often the case with lottery bound squads, positive momentum doesn’t last forever. The Mavs are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games, the wins coming against lowly Orlando and struggling Charlotte. They’re struggling defensively right now and getting killed on the boards on a nightly basis. Nor do the Mavs have much of a home court edge these days, losing SU on this floor to the likes of the Lakers, Knicks, Bulls and Suns in recent weeks. Cheap price to lay with the superior squad in ‘step-up’ mode right now! Take the Wizards. |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -103 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota – Philadelphia UNDER (#313-314) You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure this one out. We’ve got two backup quarterbacks facing off against two elite defenses with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Both coaches are well aware that this game is about avoiding key mistakes every bit as much (if not more) than it is about making big plays. Both teams have excellent kickers and excellent red zone defensive statistics. Quite frankly, I’m expecting a field goal fest! Minnesota suffered a key injury on their offensive line last week, losing starting guard Nick Easton. That means Mike Remmers will shift inside to guard this week and undrafted second year pro Rashod Hill will take over at right tackle. That’s bad news against Philly’s deep, stout defensive front with the likes of Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Fletcher Cox, Tim Jernigan, Chris Long, Beau Allen and Derek Barnettt primed to rotate in and out of the lineup all evening long. Adam Thielen has been a true difference maker for the Minnesota offense all year, leading the team (by a wide margin) in targets, catches, receiving yards, first down receptions and 20+ yard receptions. He’s hurt (lower back), very questionable for Sunday’s game. Even if he plays, I’m not convinced he’ll be fully effective. QB Case Keenum goes from inside the dome to outside. And, after Keenum nearly blew the game last week, with his top receiver limited or out, missing a key pass blocker from the offensive line, I’m expecting a run heavy approach from the Vikings offense this week. Let’s not forget that in two previous games against Top 10 defenses on the road this season, Keenum struggled mightily in both contests. Career journeymen don’t become QB studs overnight. Based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics, Philly’s defense ranks in the top quartile of the NFL against the run, against the pass and overall. They’ve been nothing short of outstanding in the red zone in recent weeks, classic Jim Schwartz; winning the game last week thanks to a late red zone stop. Vikings kicker Kai Forbath is a legit weapon. I expect him to get his fair share of opportunities in a game where field goals are likely to be our friends. Minnesota’s defense grades out even better than Philly’s; #2 overall and Top 5 against both the run and the pass. The Vikings also finished the season with the #2 red zone defense in the NFL, holding foes out of the end zone nearly 57% of the time. Nick Foles (based on MY eye test) appears to be the weaker of the two backup QB’s in this game, and in his only previous game against a quality defense – last week – the Eagles gained only 334 total yards and were held to three field goals and a single touchdown. The fact that they won the game playing that way gives me confidence that we’ll see a similar gameplan this week. First team to 20 wins…..Big Ticket: Take the UNDER |
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01-21-18 | Nets +6 v. Pistons | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#805) The Nets played arguably their worst game of the season, blasted by 34 at home against the Pistons less than two weeks ago. It’s worth noting the spot – the Nets were off two heartbreakers, losing by one in OT to the Raptors and by two to the Celtics. And it’s worth noting what the Nets have done since that defeat, with outright upset victories against the Heat and Hawks, as well as competitive defeats by five to the Spurs and in OT vs. the Wizards. Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie hasn’t forgotten how his team played: “This is our job and we're all here to play basketball. We came out here and laid an egg. That's inexcusable and unacceptable.” Head coach Kenny Atkinson hasn’t forgotten either: “(Detroit) dominated us in every phase of the game. There's not much more to say than that…..We obviously don't like these types of losses. It hurts your individual pride and competitive spirit." It’s surely worth noting that the Nets went 3-0 ATS against the Pistons last year, including two outright upsets and a one point spread covering loss here in Detroit, matching up fairly well against Stan Van Gundy’s squad. It’s also worth noting how good the Nets have been in this underdog role: 22-10 ATS this year when catching +3 or higher. That stands in sharp contrast with the Pistons ATS results as chalk. For the entirety of the season, through their first 44 games, Detroit has covered a grand total of TWO pointspreads at -5 or higher. They’ve struggled mightily since starting point guard Reggie Jackson went down; just 3-8 SU in the elven games that he’s missed. The Pistons are coming off another no-show loss on national TV, run out of the gym by the previously struggling Washington Wizards on Friday Night. Van Gundy doesn’t have answers right now: “Our guys coming off the bench to start the second quarter just were not ready for the pressure that their bench guys brought. The third quarter, I really don't know what the problem was." Live dog here! Take Brooklyn. |
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01-20-18 | Boise State +6.5 v. Nevada | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Boise State (#685) Boise is a ‘bet-on’ team all the way every time they hit the highway. The results don’t lie. They’ve already won in conference as road underdogs at UNLV and at Fresno. They won SU at Oregon in non-conference play. Last year, they won SU on the highway at Utah, Air Force, Colorado State, Wyoming, UNLV, San Jose, Utah State and Loyola. Leon Rice preaches a clam, steady approach, and the veteran Broncos have bought into that mentality, plain and simple. The Broncos have arguably the best player in the conference in Chandler Hutchinson; a versatile 6-7 wing. 6-6 guard Justinian Jessup has been outstanding on the defensive end while chipping in on the glass for a team that is averaging a +7 rebounding margin per game. Most notably, this team cleans up the defensive glass, #1 in the COUNTRY at allowing second chance opportunities off offensive rebounds. And Boise ranks #7 nationally in three point defense, shutting teams down from beyond the arc. That makes margins very difficult to obtain against these Broncos. Nevada’s resurgence this season has largely been based on the emergence of a pair of NC State transfers, Caleb and Cody Martin. But Cody – ranked in the top three on the team in points, rebounds and assists – is listed as doubtful tonight with an Achilles injury, an impact injury for Eric Musselman’s squad. Given Nevada’s value problem of late -- only 3 pointspread covers in their last eleven games following an 8-0 ATS start – taking the points with the Broncos in their best role is something of a no-brainer. Take Boise. |
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01-20-18 | Florida +2.5 v. Kentucky | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Florida (#667) Let me start with a cut and paste from my write-up supporting the Gators two weeks ago in a SU road win at Missouri; a game that played out EXACTLY as expected, with Florida making all the big plays during crunch time. “The Gators veteran backcourt of Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen have played more than 200 college basketball games between them, the type of experienced floor leaders I want on my side when it comes to ‘pick ‘em’ type games in hostile environments. The Chiozza – Allen duo helped Florida win six SEC road games in SU fashion last year. They just blew out Texas A&M in College Station, and have wins over the likes of Gonzaga and Cinci on neutral floors; a ‘bet-on’ team in games like this one.” And that’s the crux of this bet. I trust the Florida upperclassmen in a tight game down the stretch far more than I trust John Calipari’s talented but inexperienced group of freshmen. Florida hits their free throws (77% for the season), always key in short spread games. Kentucky is at just 64% from the charity stripe over their last five games. And the Wildcats propensity for committing key turnovers at inopportune times is bad news against a Gators defense that forces them in bunches. Live dog here! Take Florida. |
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01-20-18 | Heat +5.5 v. Hornets | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#507) My clients and I cashed a winning bet on Miami earlier in the week, when the Heat pulled off the outright upset in Milwaukee. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “To say that the Heat have been outstanding off a defeat would not be an understatement. Miami is coming off a 119-111 loss in Chicago on MLK day. Their last two game skid came all the way back in the first week of December when they lost to the Warriors and Spurs in back-2-back games – no shame there! Since that loss to San Antonio, the Heat are 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS off a defeat, including road wins at Boston, Charlotte, Orlando and Brooklyn. To say that Miami got better – much better --as the season progressed last year would not be an understatement. Eric Spoelstra turned an 11-30 start into a 41-41 finish while making his backers a small fortune in the process. Once again, this season, the Heat are off the national radar and have dealt with a significant barrage of injuries. And yet here is Miami riding a 14-5 SU mark in their last 19 games…” Miami is now 15-6 overall in their last 21 and 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six tries off a loss. And wouldn’t you know it – the Heat lost SU in Brooklyn last night as favorites, putting them right in their best ATS position today. Charlotte is coming off back-2-back hot shooting games, hanging 118 on the Pistons, then opening up against the Wizards by making their first ten shots on their way to a 133 point outburst. This team hasn’t won three straight games at any point since November. Kemba Walker’s name is being dangled around in trade talks; a major distraction around this time of the season for a franchise stalwart. And the Hornets have struggled mightily to match up with Miami, losing their last four against the Heat both SU and ATS. Take Miami. |
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01-20-18 | Missouri v. Texas A&M -4.5 | 49-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Texas A&M (#602) On Christmas Day, Texas A&M was ranked as the #5 team in the country. Then the injury bug started to bite, and it bit hard. Of the ten players in Billy Kennedy’s base rotation, only two guys have been able to suit up in every game. Starters DJ Hogg, Admon Gilder, Duane Wilson and Robert Williams all missed time, and the Aggies faced a very difficult opening part of their SEC schedule. The end result from all those injuries? The Aggies are now sitting with a 1-5 record in SEC play. They’re at home. And they’re finally healthy again, coming off three strong days of practice sessions since their losing-streak snapping win over Ole Miss. And with all the key cogs healthy, let’s not forget how much playing time the role players have gotten in recent weeks; leaving the Aggies with depth, talent and the level of hunger that I’m looking for out of my home favorites. The Tigers have a matchup problem on both ends of the floor when it comes to protecting the basketball and valuing possessions. Their top point guard Blake Harris quit the team two weeks ago, leading to a situation where Missouri has a grand total of 57 assists in their five SEC games. The Tigers have been living on hot three point shooting, better than 40% from beyond the arc in their last five games. I’m not expecting anywhere near that level of shooting today against a focused, defensive minded Aggies squad. Take Texas A&M |
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01-20-18 | George Washington v. VCU -8 | Top | 63-87 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
10* Take VCU (#532). Sorry, no time for a detailed write-up for this early start game. This link should explain VCU's extra motivation today, while GWU has been blown out repeatedly on the highway, a team with a glass chin.... http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/schools/virginia-commonwealth-university/as-vcu-looks-to-break-out-of-lull-against-george/article_68df6290-86eb-55ae-a51b-af38473cbe62.html |
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01-19-18 | Pacers -1.5 v. Lakers | 86-99 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#813) The Lakers are in a world of hurt right now. Their coach is under fire, they are riddled with key injuries and they’re just 7-19 SU dating back to Thanksgiving Weekend. In recent weeks, they’ve lost home games to the likes of the Grizzlies, Clippers, Hornets, Blazers, T-Wolves and Thunder; unable to step up in class even against second or third tier foes. LA won’t have starting point guard Lonzo Ball in the lineup tonight. For all the hype, Ball has been rock solid, particularly at the defensive end. Since Christmas, with Lonzo Ball on the court, the Lakers are 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS and 4-2 to the Under. In the eight games he’s missed, LA is 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS and 6-2 to the Over. Lonzo Ball matters already! Of all the stats that I’ve researched in the NBA this season, perhaps the single most surprising numbers come from the LA Lakers; more specifically from Lonzo Ball. Rookie point guards aren’t noted for their defense. Rookie ‘one and done’ point guards coming out of college with a single year of playing time under a non-defensive minded head coach, in particular, are not noted for strong defense. All of which makes the advanced metric stats stand out even more. Ball rates as the #1 defensive point guard in the NBA (of players that average at least 20 minutes per game. Without him, LA is hopeless at getting stops. The point guard injury is only one of many for LA. Luke Walton won’t have his starting shooting guard, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. LA’s two leading scores, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram, both got hurt in their loss to OKC on Wednesday; very questionable tonight. These are not positive signs for this struggling ballclub. The Pacers entered the fourth quarter in Portland last night tied with the Blazers. They then proceeded to score just 12 points in the final stanza, losing by 14. Head coach Nate McMillan was not amused: "You can't give up 14 offensive rebounds, 24 second-chance points. That's the hustle game that you've got to win." The Pacers have been significant money winners off a loss, with the exception of two losing streaks when they had injury concerns (one five game skid, one four game skid). They’re money winners on the second night of back-2-backs as well, including a blowout win in Utah earlier on this road trip. And they’re consistently beating the weaklings, 5-0 ATS in their last five tries on the road vs. opponents with a losing home record. Cheap price to lay with the class here! Take the Pacers. |
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01-18-18 | Washington +7 v. Utah | 62-70 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#565) One of the reasons why Syracuse is so good every year in non-conference play is because they face teams that aren’t familiar their 2-3 matchup zone. Without experience against this defense, mediocre offensive squads tend to wilt. Washington first year head coach Mike Hopkins was Jim Boeheim’s assistant at Syracuse for the previous 22 seasons. He took the Huskies job this past offseason and immediately started introducing Boeheim’s defensive concepts to his veteran squad, a team with four returning starters from last year. The results have been remarkable. Hopkins had the appropriate interior size and wingspans with the likes of Sam Timmins, Noah Dickerson and Hameir Wright. On-ball defender Matisse Thybulle is averaging more than three steals per game as they Huskies have forced an average of more than 16 turnovers every time they hit the court. The Huskies rank first in the PAC-12 in 3-point field goal percentage defense, first in blocked shots, second in steals and second in scoring defense .And the results have been remarkable, particularly on the highway, including a SU win in KC against Kansas, as well as SU wins at USC and Washington State. Hopkins, talking about his team’s defense: “Learning a new system, I might be surprised with how well they’ve adapted and adjusted and believed in the zone. We’re starting to get really good at it. I think there were some growing pains, but the way that they’ve responded with it has been probably the biggest surprise. But I think that’s been probably one of the biggest reasons we’ve been winning. But the Huskies are coming off a bad home loss to Stanford. Hopkins isn’t panicking. “We don’t have to change anything, we just have to execute better. You’re always gonna have your highs and lows, there’s always stages of the season…. Our mindset is to go down there (to Salt Lake City tonight) and if we execute and play our defense, we’ll have a chance to win the game. What we’re trying to do every game is you’re trying to put yourself in a position to have a chance to win the game, especially near the end. We’ve been really good in closing situations, we broke down a little bit against Stanford, and that happens.” Utah hasn’t seen this defense before, and the Utes are really struggling, suffering four straight losses since their 2-0 PAC-12 start. The Utes swept the Huskies last year, dominating both meetings. That being said, the three guys that put up double figures in both of those games(Kyle Kuzma, Devon Daniels, and Lorenzo Bonam) are all gone now. Live dog here! Take Washington. For further reading, check out these links from local sources: https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865695153/Strugglin-Runnin-Utes-determined-to-get-tougher-2-and-Tillmans-return-helps.html http://www.dailyuw.com/sports/article_25c240a4-fc02-11e7-bc3d-4389eb4897bc.html https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2018/01/17/huskies-rebuild-ahead-of-schedule-under-longtime-syracuse-assistant-mike-hopkins/ |
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01-18-18 | Wolves +5.5 v. Rockets | 98-116 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#505) I want Minnesota off a dismal showing like the one they had in Orlando on Tuesday. The T-wolves were choppy and unfocused from the get-go (looking ahead to this game, perhaps), losing 109-102 as 8.5 point road favorites. The T-wolves were outrebounded 51-37 and were as passive as it gets on the offensive end, only getting to the line for ten free throw attempts Unquestioned veteran leader Jimmy Butler had this to say following the game: “We need to humble our damn selves. I’m glad we lost. Came in here on our high horse, thinking we’re a really good team and we haven’t done anything yet. Good for us, man.” Now that’s a ‘bet-on’ quote for the current #4 seed in the West in their next game, especially when we look at the prevailing trends in this series. Minnesota has dominated ATS, 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-0 on their last five trips to face the Rockets here in Houston. And the Rockets are NOT primed to deliver a win by margin this evening – if they win the game at all. Houston has been slumping for weeks, just 5-8 SU in their last 13 games, while ranking #25 in the NBA defensively during this ugly skid. That stretch includes home losses to the Lakers, Clippers and Warriors. The markets are reacting to the expected return of James Harden this evening, off a two week absence. But while Harden is coming back, Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green just got suspended for the next two games, leaving Mike D’Antoni’s rotation in flux. Let’s not forget that Ariza ranks in the Top 10 in minutes played per game this year, a very underrated piece of the equation for Houston on both ends of the court. The Rockets are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven tries off a loss, unable to bounce back strong. They’re in lookahead mode, with the Warriors coming to town for a major showdown on Saturday Night. And they’re facing a T-Wolves squad that is hungry off a dismal showing and primed to prove their mettle here. Live dog! Take the Timberwolves. |
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01-18-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 89-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston – Philadelphia UNDER (#503-504) Both teams can be expected to bring their ‘A’ game on defense tonight. And when these two teams bring their ‘A’ games on defense, we can expect points to be very hard to come by, start to finish. The Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA, by a fairly wide margin. But Boston is coming off a dismal defensive effort in their home loss to the Pelicans earlier in the week. Head Coach Brad Stevens, following the game: “I thought our lack of defense started in transition all night. I thought we were really, really behind for whatever reason. They were pushing the tempo. They did a great job of that. They only played eight guys, so we have no excuses not to be back. But I thought they really hurt us in transition.” I’m VERY interested in betting Boston games Under the total following a rare ‘defensive meltdown’ game. Let’s not forget that the Celtics literally have an elite defender at every position. Based on the ‘real +/-‘ advanced metric defensive stats, the likes of Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Aron Baynes all rank among the top players at their respective positions defensively. 76ers head coach Brett Brown knows what’s coming. His Sixers are 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS against the Celtics this season because they haven’t been able to solve Boston’s defense. His quote, following the loss in London last week: “'This team that we just played today is the best defensive team in the NBA and we felt all of that. When you look at their individual defensive players to a man, they're as strong positionally as any team in the NBA.'' But the Sixers defense is no joke either. Two years ago, Philly ranked #25 in the NBA defensively on a points per 100 possessions basis. Last year, they ranked #17. This year, Philly is at #5; a notable and significant improvement. That’s bad news for Boston on a night where starting point guard Kyrie Irving is listed as ‘questionable’ with a sore shoulder. Prior to the uptempo affair in London last week, both previous Celtics – 76ers matchups this season were dead nuts Unders, cashing by a combined 28.5 points. I expect tonight’s game to be a defensive scrum, not a high octane shootout. Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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01-17-18 | Utah State +10 v. Boise State | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah State (#767) This is the mother of all ‘step-up’ spots for the Utah State Aggies tonight after they suffered their worst loss of the year at Nevada over the weekend; a game where the Wolfpack had the -13 spread covered less than ten minutes into the game. Aggies forward Dwayne Brown Jr was not amused: “We didn’t execute, we weren’t ready, we weren’t focused and it shows on the stat line……We can be sad and worry about or we can move on. I think we should move on and get ready for Boise. Yeah, we had turnovers, but it doesn’t define us as a team.” Head coach Tim Duryea was not amused either: “You have to set your jaw, dig your feet in and make a stand when you play here. We did not start the game that way. We made a little run there and got within five points, then showed no willingness to compete. … I thought we were really flat. Just really an embarrassing effort. A flat start, no resistance defensively, just not in the mindset to compete and compete as hard as you have to.” I’m expecting an ‘A’ level effort from the Aggies tonight – period. And this has been a remarkably competitive series, where taking points has been consistently profitable. Last year’s games were both Boise wins, by a combined total of five points. In fact, only once in the last eight meetings has either team won by more than six points. The -10 here is an outlier pointspread given the nature of this rivalry. And this is the mother of all ‘sandwich’ spots for the Boise State Broncos (read more about that here: https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/basketball/broncos-focused-on-utah-state-with-big-game-at-nevada/article_e2c411b7-d1d0-5c85-a9fb-9fd25646d43a.html ) They’re coming off a huge win against conference favorite San Diego State, with an equally huge game in Reno against the other Mountain West heavyweight (Nevada) coming up next. Expect a battle, not a blowout! Big Ticket: Take Utah State. |
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01-17-18 | Heat +4.5 v. Bucks | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#709) To say that the Heat have owned the Bucks of late would not be an understatement. Miami annihilated Milwaukee 97-79 last week, now 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS since the start of last year against Jason Kidd’s squad. To say that the Heat have been outstanding off a defeat would not be an understatement. Miami is coming off a 119-111 loss in Chicago on MLK day. Their last two game skid came all the way back in the first week of December when they lost to the Warriors and Spurs in back-2-back games – no shame there! Since that loss to San Antonio, the Heat are 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, including road wins at Boston, Charlotte, Orlando and Brooklyn. To say that Miami got better – much better --as the season progressed last year would not be an understatement. Eric Spoelstra turned an 11-30 start into a 41-41 finish while making his backers a small fortune in the process. Once again, this season, the Heat are off the national radar and have dealt with a significant barrage of injuries. And yet here is Miami riding a 14-5 SU mark in their last 19 games… The Bucks are on the other end of the spectrum when it comes to stringing victories together; just 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six tries off a victory, like the one they notched in Washington on Monday. They’ve been consistently lousy favorites, just 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten tries laying points, while covering only seven pointspreads in 22 previous home games. Milwaukee is anything but fresh, playing their tenth game in January. Miami, on the other hand, got three full days of practice time in last week, playing only their eighth game of the month. Live dog here…..Take the Heat. |
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01-17-18 | Iowa v. Rutgers | 64-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#741) Forget what Rutgers was last week – a trough, physical team that took Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad into overtime. That was then, this is now. The injury to team captain Mike Williams has (and will continue to have) an enormous impact on the Scarlet Knights fortunes. Read this article for more details: https://www.onthebanks.com/2018/1/14/16891712/mike-williams-injury-leaves-hole-for-rutgers-scarlet-knights-basketball-against-ohio-state-buckeyes The beauty of the Williams injury (suffered in practice on Saturday) is that he’s not a starter, so the markets haven’t made a significant adjustment. But make no mistake about it – Williams was the first guy off the bench and an unquestioned team leader. Head coach Steve Pikiell: “Mike has been, from day one, a fighter. Mike’s a leader. He’s a captain. He grabbed nine rebounds against Michigan State. He’s our leading rebounder at 6-2. He’s an over achiever. Mike is certainly a huge loss for us.” Without Williams available against Ohio State on Sunday, Pikiell used Souf Mensah and Jake Dadika in his place. That duo responded with a combined total of one point and four rebounds in 20 floor minutes, as Rutgers was blown out at the RAC for the first time all season, losing by 22 in a non-competitive effort. Iowa, on the other hand, just got the confidence inspiring win they desperately needed; winning an OT thriller at Illinois for their first Big 10 victory. The Hawkeyes beat the Scarlet Knights by 20 on this floor last year and by 14 the year before that. I do NOT believe the gap between these two programs has closed as much as this pick ‘em market price would indicate. Read more about Iowa’s mentality here: http://qctimes.com/sports/basketball/college/big-10/iowa/hawkeyes-aware-rutgers-is-no-longer-a-pushover/article_6816542c-c627-5bb1-8954-ee0c1210cd25.html Take Iowa. |
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01-16-18 | Oklahoma -1.5 v. Kansas State | 69-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma (#539) For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://newsok.com/sooners-trying-to-shed-bramlage-struggles/article/5579659 https://www.foxsports.com/kansas-city/story/kansas-city-wildcats-turn-focus-to-stopping-oklahoma-sooners-star-trae-young-011518 Despite the fact that Oklahoma has clearly been the better of these two programs in recent seasons (prior to last year), the Sooners have struggled mightily in Manhattan, losing on each of their last five visits to Bramlage Coliseum. Expect that streak to end tonight in a game that the road favorite Sooners clearly have circled on their schedule! We’ve already seen Lon Kruger’s squad take care of business away from home with wins over Oregon, USC, Wichita State and TCU. Frosh sensation Trae Young has ignited his squad, a very difficult matchup for Bruce Weber’s Wildcats – it’s hard to shut down 30 points and ten assists per game, especially when the team surrounding him is loaded with sharpshooters. K- State is in hangover mode following a crushing one point loss to arch-rival Kansas over the weekend, and their defensive effort has lapsed while losing three of their last five, allowing just shy of 50% shooting during that span. The Wildcats lost by margin to West Virginia in their lone previous try as home underdogs this season; primed to take another defeat against a superior foe tonight. Take Oklahoma. |
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01-16-18 | Cincinnati v. UCF +8 | 49-38 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Take UCF (#524) For additional reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/ucf-knights/knights-notepad/os-sp-ucf-cincinnati-basketball-0116-story.html http://www.blackandgoldbanneret.com/ucf-mens-basketball-prepares-no-12-cincinnati-will-b-j-taylor-return/ UCF is not a basketball school. The football team went undefeated this year while the basketball team is something of an afterthought. That wasn’t the case last year, when UCF won 24 games, including an impressive upset over Cincinnati on this floor. And from all indications, we can expect a particularly rowdy fan base at the CFE Arena in Orlando tonight. UCF head coach Johnny Dawkins, talking about the importance of the crowd tonight: “That was a big difference in our season last year. I think that everyone kind of threw themselves in and they became truly like our sixth man. They were a part of our team and when the environment is rocking like that, players just feed off that energy. It was exciting to see and hopefully we can have the same type of atmosphere [Tuesday].” The Knights have exactly what I’m looking for out of my home underdogs – they play defense and they rebound at an elite level. With 7-6 junior Tacko Fall patrolling the paint, UCF has held opponents to 37% shooting for the season, while winning the rebounding battle by nearly five boards per game. Cinci on the highway against good defenses? Well, they beat Temple by two points at -7.5 and lost to Xavier by 13 at +3, not exactly a track record of dominance. And with the total here in the low 120’s, I’m very comfortable grabbing +7.5 in what should be a very low scoring game; where margins for either team will be hard to come by. Take UCF. |
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01-15-18 | Heat +1.5 v. Bulls | 111-119 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#711) There’s one situation in the NBA where playing on the second of back-2-backs vs. a rested foe is an advantage for the ‘tired’ team. That situation – when both games are early start afternoon affairs. NBA players live late-night lifestyles and early start games can be very sluggish affairs for teams that aren’t used to those early wake-up calls and shootarounds. But the Heat are coming off an early start blowout win over Milwaukee yesterday; as acclimated as they can be for this afternoon affair. Chicago? Not so much. Being acclimated is only one piece of the equation here. The second piece is Miami’s undervalued nature. Let’s not forget what Eric Spoelstra accomplished with his team last year, turning an 11-30 start into a 41-41 finish while making his backers a small fortune in the process. Once again, this season, the Heat are off the national radar and have dealt with a significant barrage of injuries. And yet here is Miami – right at the time they got hot under Spoelstra’s tutelage last year – entering this game vs. the Bulls riding an NBA best seven game winning streak. The Heat are as healthy as they’re going to get – even Justice Winslow is back on the floor, giving Spoelstra a solid nine man rotation. They’re facing a Bulls team that has struggled to win games at home lately; just 1-3 SU on this floor in January, the lone winning coming by a single bucket against Detroit. The Bulls have not matched up well against the Heat, losing both previous meetings against Miami this season. And Fred Hoiberg’s squad isn’t playing much defense of late, allowing 50% shooting from their opponents over the last five games. The Heat deserve to be the chalk in this one……Take Miami. |
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01-14-18 | Ohio State v. Rutgers +7 | 68-46 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Rutgers (#822) Here’s the quote from Spartans head coach Tom Izzo after Rutgers took Michigan State to OT earlier in the Week as 22 point underdogs: “That’s the most physical team we've played, and that’s what I said...Tonight, we played a well-coached team that is as physical as the day is long.” That’s an issue for the ‘fat & happy’ Buckeyes, now 5-0 SU and ATS in Big 10 play and on the verge of a Top 25 ranking if they win today. To say that things have laid out well for a team that was projected to finish near the bottom of the conference, not the top, is something of an understatement, consistently playing the right teams at the right times. For example, their ‘tough’ test against Maryland at home earlier in the week was anything but tough, after a barrage of injuries left Mark Turgeon with only eight available scholarship players. Turgeon after the game “We don’t have a lot of depth. We’re starting guys that should be bench guys, and we’re playing guys that shouldn’t be playing right now, but that’s where we are.” But the broader betting markets don’t read the quotes to understand the nuances behind the final scores. What the markets see is ‘another Ohio State blowout win’ and they react accordingly. Rutgers, on the other hand, has quietly been cashing one winning bet after the next, including a 6-1 ATS mark here at the RAC, including outright upsets over the likes of Seton Hall and Wisconsin. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take Rutgers For additional reading, click this link: https://www.onthebanks.com/2018/1/14/16887768/rutgers-mens-basketball-game-19-preview-vs-ohio-state-buckeyes-chris-holtmann-steve-pikiell-big-ten |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings OVER 45.5 | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 100 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – New Orleans OVER (#307-308) For an extended stretch this season, the Saints defense was a major story, one of the biggest surprises in the NFL. This defense ranked #31 in the NFL last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics. This year, they finished with a #8 ranking, and they spent the better part of two months pretty much dominating as they won eight straight mid-season games. That was then, this is now. The Saints defense has been riddled with key injuries down the stretch. They’ve lost their defensive playcaller, LB AJ Klein. They’ve lost arguably their top playmaker in the secondary, safety Kenny Vaccaro. And they’ve lost pass rushing force and run stuffer Alex Okafor off their defensive line. The normal, natural result of those defensive injuries has been a declining defense. In their last two games – both intense, playoff atmosphere contests – the Saints have allowed 868 yards and a truly awful 21-35 on third down conversions against a Bucs team just playing out the string and a Panthers team with the weakest cast of receivers for any playoff team. Had Carolina been able to execute in the red zone with those limited receivers, the Saints season would already be over. And it’s surely worth noting that the New Orleans defense has been on the field for a whopping 152 snaps over the past two weeks; anything but fresh here. Minnesota can execute in the red zone (Top 10 in TD percentage); a dramatically underrated offense for most of the season. Plain and simple -- Case Keenum doesn’t attract much enthusiasm from the betting markets, a big part of the reason why Minnesota was the single best pointspread team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, too, is excellent in the red zone thanks to their offensive balance – an elite running game and an elite QB are a hard combo to stop, and I have no hesitation betting ON the Drew Brees/Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram trio to score some points. When the Saints played here back in Week 1, they marched the ball up and down the field, but they only converted on one of their five red zone opportunities. The Vikings, too, failed repeatedly in the red zone, notching only three TD’s on six tries. The game STILL cashed Over bets. Expect better red zone execution this time around, leading to another Over as the Vikings and Saints collide. Take the Over. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -112 | 97 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Pittsburgh (#306) Here a link to the 18-0 angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two from recent seasons. And, of course, my clients and I cashed a winner betting against these same Jaguars last week using this same angle, despite the fact that the Bills made numerous crucial mistakes and didn’t move the football at all. Here’s an excerpt from last week’s write-up, loaded with anti-Jacksonville fodder. “Based on my power rating numbers for the week the games were played, the Jaguars played the single weakest schedule of any playoff team this year. That’s bad news when it comes to playoff time. This bet comes down to one additional factor for me: Blake Bortles. “The Jags had seven blowout wins this year by 16 points or more. Playing with a lead, Bortles was just fine: a 12-1 TD/INT ratio and a passer rating of 107.5. But in the other nine games – games where Bortles was asked to make plays for the Jags to win, his numbers were downright ugly: a 9-12 TD-INT ratio and a passer rating of 73.8 (Trevor Siemian territory). “This stat might be the best of the bunch. Blake Bortles led 26 drives this season in the fourth quarter or OT of one possession games (not counting a kneel down vs. Seattle or a last play Hail Mary INT vs. Tennessee). In those 26 possessions, Bortles produced a grand total of one touchdown, on a 38 yard drive against Arizona.” Blake Bortles is NOT a QB I can trust in a hostile road environment against a strong, playoff tested foe. The Jags were at home against the Bills last week and netted just 75 yards on Blake Bortles 25 drop-backs, not counting scrambles. In fact, on all plays OTHER than Bortles scrambles at home against the Bills, Jacksonville averaged just 2.8 yards per snap. Those are most assuredly NOT confidence inducing numbers. And make no mistake about it – the Steelers still remember the Jags coming into Heinz Field earlier in the season, intercepting five Ben Roethlisberger passes (two of them pick sixes) in a three touchdown win for the road team; the low point of the season for Pittsburgh. Defensive end Stephon Tuitt: “You know how we turn it up in the playoff games. The intensity level rises. People are more focused on the task at hand.” And Mike Tomlin knows what’s coming, the type of game where Pittsburgh’s gameplan is very clear: “They have as clearly a defined a mode of operation as anyone in this (playoff) field in terms of how they play. They run the ball. They control the clock. They have corresponding play action passes. They play formidable defense. They create turnovers. And that's how games unfold for them.” Pittsburgh’s offense wasn’t healthy or in rhythm when these teams met in October. This time around, they’re pretty darn health. Antonio Brown looks good to go off a full practice participation on Tuesday. JuJu Smith Shuster is coming off a nine catch, 143 yard performance in the season finale. Martavis Bryant, too, is in stellar current form, and Le’Veon Bell is fully healthy off two weeks sitting. The Jags defense ruled the day in the first meeting, but I expect the rematch to be very, very different. Big Ticket: Take the Steelers. |
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