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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-06-17 | Wisconsin v. Temple -4 | 55-59 | Push | 0 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Temple (#526) I’m always interested in what a team is saying coming off a handful of bad performances. Is this team in the midst of a ‘crash and burn’ or are they primed to step up next time out? After all, Temple has suffered two bad losses in their last three games, losing SU as 11 point chalk on the road at George Washington and as 3.5 point favorites on the road at LaSalle. Sophomore wing Quinton Rose, the Owls leading scorer: “We were prepared [for La Salle and George Washington] and kind of sensed that we were better than them and didn’t have to play as hard as we should, but we learned our lesson from that.” Second leading scorer Shizz Alston had a similar take: “We looked at those guys and didn’t respect them as much as, say, Cincinnati or UConn, so we have to respect every team the same way.” In other words, Temple’s early season results aren’t indicative of who they actually are, offering us value to support the Owls in games like this one. And make no mistake about it – this is a HUGE game for Temple, their first home game of the season against an opponent that has been a fixture on the postseason stage in every recent season. Senior big man Obi Enechionyia “It’s been tough not being able to play on our home court for so long. I am excited to play in front of the fans.” Wisconsin isn’t just a young team this year – they’re really, really young, a complete rebuild for head coach Greg Gard. In their one point road win at Penn State on Monday (note the short turnaround time), four of the eight players who saw court time were true freshmen, and two others were sophomores. Wisconsin is not the most confident team these days – they had dropped four out of five prior to the win over the Nittany Lions – and they did their best to blow a 17 point second half lead in that contest, just one game after getting run off the court at home against Ohio State. Chalk worth laying! Take Temple. |
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12-05-17 | Texas A&M v. Arizona +2 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#728) My clients and I bet on Arizona last Saturday Night as short road favorites at UNLV. Arizona won the game, but did not cover the pointspread, a disappointing result. That being said, the fact that they won a tight, contested road game by making big plays on both ends of the court during crunch time of regulation and overtime is the spark this team needed! Let me start with an excerpt from Saturday’s write-up: “Thanksgiving Weekend tournaments are not the final arbiter to determine which teams are actually elite. ‘Zona had a miserable run last weekend in the Battle for Atlantis losing outright as favorites to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They lost ATS by 18.5, 13 and 26 points in those three games. Whatever betting bandwagon the Wildcats had – remember, they went into last weekend as the #2 team in the country – has now dissipated into dust. And that’s why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Wildcats.” Make no mistake about it – Arizona had a rough tourney, but they are a legit Top 5 caliber team with a defense first mindset, loaded with interior size, speedy playmakers and NBA caliber perimeter shooters. They hit 38% from three point range and 73% from the free throw line, rock solid shooting numbers. Arizona has senior Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Junior Allonzo Trier handling the basketball, a truly elite duo. And Sean Miller has a pair of seven footers starting in his frontcourt – the Wildcats are outrebounding their foes by more than seven boards per game Texas A&M has a handful of impressive looking victories on their resume, including a 23 point blowout over West Virginia and a 16 point win at USC. Not to take anything away from those wins, but USC was awful (28% shooting) and West Virginia simply struggled on a neutral floor on opening night. Not to take anything away from the Aggies hot start, but this pointspread is out of whack with the relative talent levels for these two squads for a game being played in Phoenix. The Wildcats won a tight one on Saturday and I expect them to win another tight one here. Take Arizona. |
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12-05-17 | Virginia v. West Virginia -4 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia (#718) This will be Virginia’s toughest test of the season – they’ve been -6 or higher in every previous game. I’m not expecting them to pass it! In 2015, West Virginia faced Virginia’s ‘pack line’ defense for the first time and they were hopelessly lost, losing 70-54. Last year, Bob Huggins spent extra time working on how to solve Tony Bennett’s squad and it paid off with a 66-57 road victory. The core of that squad is back, most notably all-everything senior point guard Jevon Carter; one of four double digit scorers for the Mountaineers. Bob Huggins knows that his team needs to push the pace against the single slowest team in the country: “Three yards and a cloud of dust is what they want. It’s like Woody (Hayes, former Ohio State football coach) is coaching over there….We were able to speed them up some last year…..What pack line does is it makes you make jump shots. There’s five guys inside the 3. It’s what Jamie (Dixon, former Pitt and now TCU coach) has done for years…. If you make jump shots, you generally are successful.” West Virginia can hit jump shots. Plus, they force more than 21 turnovers per game and they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. That’s how the Mountaineers have taken 556 shots compared to 431 shots from their opponents; a HUGE edge in a game like this with fewer possessions expected. Virginia isn’t loaded with interior size and their ball handling is questionable without a true point guard on the roster. The Mountaineers handled this squad last year in Charlottesville, and I expect them to handle them in Morgantown in the rematch. Take West Virginia. |
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12-05-17 | Winthrop +12.5 v. Georgia | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Winthrop (#765) This is a truly brutal spot for the Georgia Bulldogs as big home chalk against feisty Winthrop. Georgia is coming off a HUGE series of wins, first beating St Mary’s in the Wooden Legacy Classic and following that up with an impressive outright upset at Marquette on Saturday. ‘Final exams season’ begins immediately following tonight’s game. This is no ‘step-up spot for the home team, and we’ve seen what happens when Georgia isn’t motivated in a lethargic nine point win over South Carolina Upstate and an equally lethargic win over Texas A&M – Corpus Christi. Winthrop won 26 games last year and expects to contend for the Big South title again this year; a talented, veteran mid-major squad with an excellent track record in ‘step-up’ spots. But they got run out of the gym in their previous ‘step-up’ game at Auburn, allowing 119 points on 62% shooting. I’ll take the ‘Under 62% shooting’ for Georgia tonight in a game played at Winthrop’s pace – fast – as opposed to the pace the Bulldogs have been playing in their last few games. And this double digit pointspread makes the expected ‘foul and three pointer’ sequence at the end of the game much less stressful…. Take Winthrop. |
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12-04-17 | Nets v. Hawks -1 | 110-90 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#510) The betting markets almost always knee-jerk in these home & home sets, with $$ pouring in on the team that lost the first meeting in the short turnaround rematch. That’s certainly the case with the early $$ pouring in on the Nets, driving this line down to pick em at several influential sportsbooks as I do this write-up. I understand the concept from the betting markets here – two bad teams equates to virtually no edge for the home team in the rematch, especially with Atlanta sitting at 2-8 SU at home this year. But there was nothing fraudulent about the Hawks double digit win over the Nets on Saturday; a wire-2-wire victory. The Nets hit 17 three pointers in that game, with six different players hitting at least two shots from downtown. They were only -1 on the glass and missed only four free throws. And they still lost at home by margin. So here’s the rematch. The Nets aren’t poised to take advantage of Atlanta’s front court injuries – they’ve been outrebounded by nearly two boards per game, ranked #21 in the NBA. Hawks backup center Miles Plumlee is just fine when he’s only asked to play defense and rebound, and Ersan Ilysova is a tough rebounder in the low post. And the Nets still have the same defensive problems they had over the weekend – their inability to stay in front of Atlanta point guard Dennis Schroeder and their inability to get stops with their second unit on the floor. It’s surely worth noting that the Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six tries against foes with a losing record. After facing the likes of San Antonio, Cleveland, Toronto and Boston in the last two weeks, another ‘step down in class’ game for the home team is a likely victory. Take the Hawks. |
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12-04-17 | Michigan +2 v. Ohio State | 62-71 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#523) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Michigan on Saturday, as the Wolverines jumped out to an 18-4 lead over Indiana and never looked back, cruising to a double digit victory. And there’s ample reason to believe that Michigan will be the better team on the floor again tonight as they travel to Columbus to take on Ohio State. The Buckeyes haven’t come down yet from one of the more remarkable performances of the college basketball season thusfar, winning by 25 at Wisconsin on Saturday as ten point underdogs. That win was mostly about hot shooting – the Buckeyes shot 78% in the first half and led by 23 at the break, finishing the game with 66% shooting and a +14 rebounding edge. Note the quote from Badgers big man Ethan Happ, following the game: “The easiest thing to say is we didn't come with enough energy. We just need to be more prepared to play." I’m not expecting to see similar quotes from the Wolverines as they face their rival. This will be Ohio State’s sixth game in 12 days, all against quality competition. Chris Holtmann’s squad is likely to be anything BUT fresh here. We’ve already seen Ohio State come up on the wrong end of big in-game turnarounds – Ohio State was outscored 49-28 after halftime against Clemson last week, right here at Value City Arena. And they led Butler 56-41 with less than four minutes to play before a complete meltdown cost them the game in overtime. Coming off a near perfect game, with just a 48 hour turnaround off what has been a VERY intense stretch, I’m not expecting Ohio State to come out clicking on all cylinders here. Even if they do, this team is prone to in-game collapses, even on this floor. And the Wolverines are no joke; a veteran squad coming off a 26 win campaign with the interior size to bang and the perimeter shooting to win. Take Michigan. |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 46.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 32 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle – Philly OVER (#377-378) I understand that both of these teams cashed Under tickets last week, in large part due to strong defensive showings against weak offensive opponents. But make no mistake about it – the Seahawks are an ‘Over’ team these days, and so is Philadelphia! Seattle hasn’t been able to run the ball all year. Russell Wilson has been their leading rusher three times in their last five games. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls are at 2.5 and 2.6 yards per carry for the season. The Seahawks know perfectly well that they’re not going beat the Eagles by running the football into the teeth of their strong defensive front. This is a Russell Wilson game for Seattle, plain and simple. And, for all the criticism that he has received, Russell Wilson continues to make big plays, week after week. It’s not like Seattle is short on downfield receiving talent with Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson combining for 32 receptions of 20+ yards between them. And it’s not like the Seahawks haven’t gone ‘pass first’ before when their running game wasn’t working – they’ve done it in each of the last two seasons, closing out the 2016 regular season on a 9-5 run to the Over and the 2015 campaign featured a 6-2 midseason run to the Over. Seattle’s defense, despite their strong showing last week against the offensively weak 49ers, is an injury riddled MASH unit right now. Cliff Avril, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor matter A LOT; a trio of pro bowl candidates that are now sitting on the sidelines. Throw in injuries to Bobby Wagner, Dion Jordan, Shaquill Griffin, Earl Thomas and others, and we’re talking about a Seahawks defense that’s in a world of hurt right now. That’s bad news against Carson Wentz and the red hot Philly offense; a team that has hung 30+ on their foes in each of their last five ballgames. The Eagles haven’t scored more points than any other team in the NFL this year by accident; the #3 offense according to Football Outsiders. And the Eagles – most notably emerging star QB Carson Wentz – gained some valuable experience in a 26-15 loss on this field to Seattle last year. Wentz: “It’s a huge help (having played here last year). … It’s definitely loud. It’s quite the atmosphere. It’s a fun place to play. Most guys have been there now, so that’ll pay dividends in just our week of prep, knowing how much we need to emphasize hand signals and communicating things non-verbally.” In a game where both coaches are well aware that they’ll need to put up points in bunches, look for a high octane, big play filled Shootout on Sunday Night in Seattle. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4.5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#370) My clients and I cashed a winner betting AGAINST New Orleans last week, yet I have no hesitation betting ON the Saints this week. What gives? Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up: “We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week.” That was then, this is now. The Saints, now, have been humbled, off a frustrating loss. It’s surely worth noting that blindly betting Drew Brees off a loss since 2003 has been a major moneywinning proposition: 52-32 ATS (discounting pushes). And the injury riddled Saints defense is getting much healthier. Safety Kenny Vaccaro and LB AJ Klein both returned to the lineup last week. CB Ken Crawley is expected back in the lineup this week and he could be re-joined by rookie standout CB Marshon Lattimore, who missed last weeks’ game. The Saints won the first meeting between these two teams 34-13 because the Panthers offense didn’t work. Guess what – despite the 35 points they hung on the Jets last week, the Panthers offense still doesn’t work! Carolina scored on special teams and on defense last week; something I wouldn’t count on happening two weeks in a row. Without the traded Kelvin Benjamin or the injured Curtis Samuel and Greg Olson, Cam Newton completed only 11 of his 28 pass attempts while taking three sacks. They finished the game averaging less than 5.0 yards per play. Jonathan Stewart gained only 26 yards on his 15 carries. Devin Funchess was the only WR to catch a pass. This is not an offense that is clicking on all cylinders right now, bad news against an angry, focused Saints team primed to win this one by margin. Carolina’s defense isn’t necessarily as good as advertised either! The Panthers have faced San Fran, Buffalo, Chicago, Tampa (with Ryan Fitzpatrick), Miami and the Jets; all bottom quartile offenses that make the Panthers defensive numbers look at least a notch or two better than they probably are. Take the Saints. |
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12-03-17 | Browns +14 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#371) The public bets against Cleveland every week and wins. The wiseguys bet ON Cleveland every week and lose. This has been going on for the better part of the last two seasons. The Browns are 2-9 ATS this year – dead last in the NFL; even worse than the Broncos, Bucs, Giants or Cardinals. They finished dead last in the NFL last year, covering only three pointspreads in 16 games. Clearly, there is going to be ‘value’ on the Browns after a dismal ATS stretch like this one, but only if they’re not quite as bad as the betting markets would indicate. I genuinely think that’s the case here, especially with star WR Josh Gordon returning to the lineup this week after an extended NFL mandated suspension. Hue Jackson is expected to stick Gordon right into the starting lineup on the other side from Corey Coleman, giving the Browns a pair of big play weapons on the outside. Cleveland has run the ball effectively all year, to the tune of 4.4 yards per carry. The Chargers, despite having Melvin Gordon on the roster, are more than a half yard per carry worse. LA doesn’t stop the run particularly well either, dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Browns run defense is more than a yard and a half better PER CARRY than the Chargers. I’ve NEVER seen that before from a two touchdown underdog in my 19 previous football seasons here in Las Vegas. I understand that Cleveland has had all sorts of ‘never before’s’ and ‘how is this possible’ non-covers over the past two seasons – their betting bandwagon grows smaller and smaller every week. It’s been all about turnovers for the Browns, both this year and last. They’re -17 in turnovers already this season, dead last in the NFL, and they’ve got a young, inexperienced QB in Deshone Kizer who makes more than his fair share of mistakes. If the Browns are -3 in turnovers again this week, they’re not likely to cover. But the Browns didn’t commit a turnover last week. They’re facing the only team they’ve actually beaten in SU fashion over the last two years; knocking off LA last December. And the Chargers are NOT built for covering big pointspreads. This is the first time all year that LA is higher than -7. In fact, it’s the first time since 2014 that they’ve laid more than a TD; not a role that suits them. At -14 over the past three seasons, the Chargers would be 4-39 ATS. At +14 this year, the Browns would have only 3 ATS losses in their first eleven games, instead of the 2-9 ATS mark they current have. This is anything BUT a ‘step-up’ game for the Chargers, coming off their Thanksgiving blowout at Dallas. Now that so many bettors have given up on Cleveland completely, this is the week to step in and expect them to cash for us, with room to spare. Take the Browns. |
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12-03-17 | Seton Hall +3.5 v. Louisville | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#721) There are four key factors in play for me to support Seton Hall as they travel to Louisville; a game I expect the Pirates to win in outright fashion (sorry, abbreviated write-up on a busy NFL Sunday morning). First, the Pirates have the low post size to bang with the Louisville bigs. More than 40% of the Pirates shots are layups, dunks and other easy looks near the basket, with Angel Delgad, Ismael Sanago and feisty wing Desi Rodriguez all pounding the offensive glass. Second, the Pirates ball pressure – forcing turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents possessions -- is a problem for a Louisville team that has struggled with their ball handling at key junctures in early season play. Third, Louisville isn’t hitting perimeter shots, unable to put teams away. For the season, no one on David Padgett’s squad has hit more than seven three pointers. That’s bad news against a Seton Hall squad that has been draining their open perimeter looks, coming off a 50% shooting effort against what had been the nation’s best defensive team. Lastly, I want Seton Hall in their ‘step-up’ games on the highway. Throughout the Kevin Willard era, this team has been extraordinarily tough in hostile environments. Last year, the core of this team went 8-2 ATS as dogs away from home, and I’m expecting more of the same on Sunday. Take Seton Hall |
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12-02-17 | Arizona -4.5 v. UNLV | 91-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#605) Thanksgiving Weekend tournaments are not the final arbiter to determine which teams are actually elite. ‘Zona had a miserable run last weekend in the Battle for Atlantis losing outright as favorites to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They lost ATS by 18.5, 13 and 26 points in those three games. Whatever betting bandwagon the Wildcats had – remember, they went into last weekend as the #2 team in the country – has now dissipated into dust. That’s why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Wildcats as they travel to Las Vegas to take on the Runnin’ Rebels tonight. First, make no mistake about it – Arizona had a rough tourney, but they are a legit Top 5 caliber team with a defense first mindset, loaded with interior size, speedy playmakers and NBA caliber perimeter shooters. Secondly, UNLV is still an overrated commodity, even after taking their first loss of the season at Northern Iowa on Wednesday. The Rebels have been feasting on the weak. Their signature win in their 6-1 start came against a Utah team expected to finish near the bottom of the PAC-12 standings. All five of their other victories came in games where UNLV was favored by -13 or higher. Arizona is, by FAR, the best team UNLV has faced this season. It’s not the same case looking the other way….. The Rebels are +13 PER GAME on the boards for the season. That interior dominance isn’t going to happen against Sean Miller’s squad, who starts a pair of seven footers. Opponents have hit only 23% of their three point attempts vs. UNLV; a stat that’s primed for correction tonight against an Arizona team that’s hitting better than 38% from beyond the arc this season. UNLV’s defense had hel foes to an 0.71 turnover to assist ratio. Arizona has senior Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Junior Allonzo Trier handling the basketball, a truly elite duo. The Rebels might hang around for a while with the friendly crowd cheering, but we can expect Arizona to pull away at some point. And the Wildcats solid free throw shooting – 73% for the season – gives me confidence that they can hit the clutch foul shots down the stretch if the game is still tight. Take Arizona. |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. CLEMSON -9 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Clemson (#326) If experience matters at this time of the year – and I think it does – no team in the country has an edge over the Clemson Tigers. Clemson has played in big games all year – Auburn, at Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at NC State, at South Carolina etc etc. They won all of those games. This is their third consecutive trip to the ACC Championship Game; they won each of the first two. Clemson has also played in four college football playoff games over the previous two seasons – the biggest games on the biggest stage that college football has to offer. Miami? Well, they did beat West Virginia in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year, their first bowl win this decade. And they did dominate in their two biggest games of the season, beating Virginia Tech, then blowing out Notre Dame. Of course, it’s worth noting that both Virginia Tech and Notre Dame stumbled badly down the stretch. And it’s worth noting that both of those games came at home. This game, of course, will be played in Charlotte. And when we look at what happened to the Hurricanes away from home this year, it’s not hard to make a case for betting against them! Miami’s starting QB Malik Rosier got benched for a series last week at Pitt; Miami’s first loss of the season. For the season, Rosier completed only 55% of his throws. Leading rusher Mark Walton got hurt, and his replacement, Travis Homer is not a ‘grind it out between the tackles’ type runner. No receiver has more than 45 catches or 583 receiving yards. This is NOT an elite offense or a particularly confident QB, bad news against what is most assuredly an elite defense. Brent Venables stop unit is, once again, ranked in the top six in the country in yardage allowed, points allowed and sacks. There are two other key factors in play for me here. First comes freshness. Miami hasn’t had a week off since mid-September, now playing their 11th consecutive game without a bye. Clemson had a mid-October bye and they faced lowly Citadel two weeks ago, by far the fresher of these two squads at this late stage of the season. Second, Miami has struggles away from home; Clemson does not. The ‘Canes gained just 232 yards at Pitt last week; the rare double digit favorite to lost outright despite a turnover advantage. They were lucky to beat a 5-6 squad Florida State, had to rally from behind to knock off a 3-9 North Carolina team and lost by double digits to a 5-7 Pitt squad. Let’s be real. Miami’s success this season has been about the Turnover Chain more than any other factor. In their final six games, the ‘Canes created 21 turnovers; with 29 takeaways on the season. The offense turned it over only 12 times all year. Teams that live off turnover margin aren’t primed for success against a Clemson offense that, like Miami, only gave it away 12 times in 12 games. It was 58-0 the last time these two teams met, and I don’t think the gap has closed significantly……Tigers roll. Take Clemson. |
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12-02-17 | Georgia +6 v. Marquette | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#525) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner taking Georgia plus the points in the Wooden Legacy Tourney last weekend. And Mark Fox’s Bulldogs are primed to make us some more money today in their first game since that OT win over previously undefeated St Mary’s. The Bulldogs are rested and ready as they travel to Marquette; a declining program that isn’t even in the top half of the Big East any more. Georgia was a feisty road underdog last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M. My numbers show the Bulldogs on an 11-3-1 ATS run when catching points, and even that’s somewhat misleading. Two of the three ATS losses should have asterisks attached, due to some unusual late game shenanigans. Unusual late game shenanigans are possible here – Marquette is an elite free throw shooting team -- but I certainly wouldn’t call them likely. And Marquette has to be in the lead late to get those FT attempts. That’s likely to be a problem, because Steve Wojociechowski’s squad isn’t playing much defense. Based on KenPom’s advanced metric numbers, Georgia ranks #44 in the country in defensive efficiency. Marquette is at #151. That’s a pretty big defensive edge for the underdog, especially when we consider that the Golden Eagles don’t have the interior size to bang with Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide in the paint. Expect Georgia’s defense and rebounding to be difference makers here, cashing another winning bet in the underdog role. Take Georgia. |
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12-02-17 | Indiana v. Michigan -7.5 | 55-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#522). Sorry, no detailed write-up for this early start game. Michigan is in a Grade 'A' spot back home off a dismal showing at North Carolina, and Indiana is 'fade' material in this pointspread range when stepping up in class on the highway. Take the Wolverines! |
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12-02-17 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic -11 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Florida Atlantic (#316) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. Florida Atlantic won the first meeting between these two teams by a 69-31 margin. It wasn’t as close as the 38 point final margin of victory would indicate – the game was 41-7 at halftime, and, quite frankly, was all but finished with a 24-0 Owls lead by the end of the first quarter. FAU scored on their first 11 drives, gaining 804 yards on just 72 snaps: 447 rushing and 357 passing. So what’s different for the rematch? Not much! Florida Atlantic has size, speed and talent edges all over the field. North Texas didn’t show any more ability to compete when stepping up in class on the highway in ugly losses at Iowa and SMU; a defense that has not fared well against speed and tempo. The Mean Green defense has generated only seven interceptions all season, and they’ve been feasting on the weak to get here. Each of their last three games came against an opponent that ranked #121 or worse (out of 129 teams) in passing efficiency this season. FAU ranks #34 on that list. North Texas can’t realistically hope to stop an FAU offense with big play weapons all over the place. Five different rushers and five different pass catchers had TD’s of 40+ yards this year for the Owls. But can the Mean Green trade points here? They are balanced on offense and QB Mason Fine threw for nearly 3400 yards with a 27-11 TD –INT ratio for the season. But, quite literally, everything North Texas has been able to accomplish offensively this season has been the result of a remarkably weak slate of foes, a schedule that is ranked #117th according to Sagarin’s methodology. I do NOT expect the back door to be open here any more than it was open in that first meeting because FAU isn’t likely to stop scoring…..Take Florida Atlantic |
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12-01-17 | Illinois +5.5 v. Northwestern | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#723) Northwestern isn’t playing well enough to lay this type of a price to an opponent that has OWNED them in recent seasons. And don’t underestimate how much the Wildcats temporary digs, miles from campus, affects the strength (or lack thereof) of their home court advantage. Put those two factors together and the Illini are a clear choice for this bettor in the Big 10 opener on Friday Night. The betting markets have been too high on Chris Collins team from Day 1 this season. The influential Blue Ribbon guide had the Wildcats ranked in their preseason Top 25; just about every preseason guide had the Wildcats building off their NCAA Tourney appearance last March. But the early results have proven otherwise. Northwestern has already lost SU twice as a favorite as part of their 1-4 ATS run to open the season, the lone cover coming by just a half a point. Their offensive numbers are weak, their defensive numbers are weak, and they’ve been outrebounded on a consistent basis. To make matters worse for the Wildcats, Welsh-Ryan Arena is getting renovated this year, forcing the Wildcats to play at the AllState Arena in Rosemont, a full half hour drive away from campus (with no traffic). They have yet to cover a pointspread at the new venue. Northwestern went to the Big Dance last year while Illinois went to the NIT despite the fact that the Illini won both meetings, SU and ATS. This isn’t new or different – the Illini have covered every meeting between these two in-state rivals dating back to 2015. You’d have to go back to 2013 before you find a NW win in this series by enough of a margin to cover tonight’s pointspread. Brad Underwood plus the points is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Illini. |
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11-30-17 | Bulls v. Nuggets -11 | 110-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#506) My handicap on Chicago is very simple right now. Motivated teams are going to beat the Bulls by margin. Chicago is going to win a handful of games on hot shooting nights. They’ll win another handful of games when their opponents look past them. But on most nights, the Bulls are going to lose by however much their opponent wants to beat them by; the single worst team in the NBA this season, a true bottom feeder. In their last six road games, the Bulls have lost by 30+ on three separate occasions while going 0-6 ATS. This is not a team capable of ‘digging down deep’ when facing adversity on the highway right now, which is particularly bad news for tonight’s game against the Nuggets. Denver is a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency but that certainly wasn’t the case on Tuesday, when the Nuggets turned a 49-48 halftime lead into a 106-77 defeat; by far their worst half of basketball all season. Even worse, it came in front of a rare ESPN national audience for a team that doesn’t get a ton of TV time. Head coach Mike Malone: “We were completely outplayed. Just an awful, embarrassing night for the Denver Nuggets." Denver is 7-1 SU in their last eight home games; a completely different team when playing at the Pepsi Center. The only loss during that span came against Golden State – no shame there – and four of the wins came by a dozen points or more – this team is more than capable of closing out a blowout victory with reasonable fourth quarter intensity. Chalk worth laying……Take the Nuggets. |
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11-29-17 | Grizzlies +8 v. Spurs | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#715) No need for a long write-up for this game, because the concept is simple. Memphis just fired wildly unpopular head coach David Fizdale, a coach with a track record of consistently pissing off just about every veteran on the team. The last straw came over the weekend against the Nets, when franchise centerpiece Marc Gasol was benched for the entire fourth quarter of a ten point home loss, their eighth consecutive defeat. Now JB Bickerstaff takes over, and the Spurs know exactly what’s coming. San Antonio wing Danny Green: “We know every time a team comes with a new coach (after a) firing, they always go on a winning streak.” We can expect the Grizzlies to play like their hair is on fire tonight; a clear step-up spot for a team that has been thoroughly devalued in the betting markets during this eight game skid (both SU and ATS). The Spurs are transitioning Tony Parker and Rudy Gay back into the rotation after both missed time. They have shown precious little urgency in early season play, as clearly evidenced by their margins of victory at home. The Spurs 9-2 record on this floor includes only four wins by more than eight points – the Suns, Clippers, Bulls and Hawks, arguably the four worst teams in the league over the past month. Be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline in a game where Memphis is primed to show up bigtime! Take the Grizzlies. |
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11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa +1 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 101 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa (#746) The Runnin’ Rebels have enjoyed a tremendous start to their season, going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. The only pointspread they didn’t cover came as 23 point favorites against Southern Utah, a game they won by 19. Most impressively, the Rebels destroyed Utah on a ‘neutral’ court here in Vegas as three point underdogs, winning by 27 while holding Utah to 2-20 shooting from three point range. No surprise, then, that the betting markets are sky high on the Rebels right now – heck, this team got votes for the AP Top 25 this week! And that’s why we’ve got tremendous value to support Northern Iowa tonight. The Panthers style is the Rebels kryptonite. UNLV wants to – needs to – push the pace. They’ve scored at least 85 points in every game, and, with the exception of Utah, they’ve all come against lesser competition, with UNLV laying at least -13.5 in their other five previous games. Northern Iowa isn’t going to run with anybody. The Panthers, unlike the Rebels, are truly battle tested after facing SMU, NC State and Villanova last week at the Battle for Atlantis. It’s surely worth noting that Ben Jacobson’s Panthers forced all three of those quality, major conference foes to play at their preferred slowdown pace. It’s also worth noting that Northern Iowa was good enough to win two of those games in SU fashion as underdogs while finishing +12 on the boards – this team has the interior size to bang with the big boys. And that’s so key! UNLV is loaded with bigs. Brandon McCoy and Shakur Juiston are both averaging 13 rebounds per game and the Rebels have a +15 rebounding margin per game. Don’t expect a margin like that against Northern Iowa, who is +8 (per game) on the boards themselves; a team that rebounds well from every position on the court. UNI got blown out at North Carolina in their season opener, allowing 86 points on 50% shooting. Since that time, they’ve held every foe – including Villanova – to 64 or less, playing one grinder after the next. No team has shot better than 43% against them in any of their last six games, a VERY sticky defensive ballclub. Northern Iowa has been home since last Saturday, confident and focused off the loss to the Wildcats. UNLV is in lookahead mode – they’ve got a bigtime showdown against Arizona at home on Friday Night. Facing a Rebels team not built for this style, leaving the friendly confines of Las Vegas for the first time all year, we can bet the Panthers with confidence. Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa. |
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11-28-17 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 208 | 77-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Denver OVER (#507-508) When Rudy Gobert got hurt, the Utah Jazz ranked #2 in the NBA in points per possession allowed on defense, an elite defensive ballclub. In eight games without their low post shotblocker, the Jazz rank #19 in points per possession allowed on defense and #24 in percentage of available rebounds that they’ve nabbed, leading to easy putbacks off the offensive glass. Six of Utah’s eight opponents since the Gobert injury have scored 106+ against them and the only two that didn’t – Orlando and Chicago – rank among the weakest offensive teams in basketball. Facing a Nuggets team that wants to push the pace at every reasonable opportunity, look for the Jazz defense to get exposed once again this evening. But Utah’s offense has improved by leaps and bounds of late, hanging 110+ three times in their last four ballgames. Head coach Quin Snyder, after the Jazz hung 121 on the Bucks over the weekend: “I thought we were unbelievably unselfish. Offensively we were really connected and trying to help each other.” It’s surely worth noting that Utah has set season highs for assists in a game twice in their last four contests. And it’s also worth noting that the Nuggets defense on the road has been hideous (125+ allowed twice on their recent three game trip), a big part of the reason they’ve been moneyburners (3-6 ATS) on the highway all year. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-28-17 | Baylor v. Xavier -4.5 | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Xavier (#512) Gotta like this spot here for the short home favorite! Xavier was embarrassed at Baylor last year when a three point halftime lead turned into a 15 point defeat. That came despite a +12 edge on the boards for the Musketeers in large part because Bears guard Manu Lecomte went nuts, nailing six three pointers, and because Xavier didn’t handle the basketball well, committing 17 turnovers. That was then, this is now. We’ve got a particularly motivated Xavier squad tonight, coming off their first loss of the season on Friday, blitzkrieged by Arizona State in a 102-86 defeat, by far their worst defensive showing of the season. Baylor was expected to be and is striving to a Top 20 team defensively, yet after the Arizona State debacle, they rank #55 in that category entering play today. Musketeers head coach Chris Mack is ‘bet-on’ all the way following an ugly loss, and Baylor can’t be trusted in their first true road game of the season. Mack made it clear that he expects Xavier’s defensive breakdowns from their last game to be fixed. Read between the lines of this quote and you can understand why my $$ is on the short home favorite tonight: Mack: “We have to be better defensively and there's no getting around that. We recognize how strong of a program Baylor is and what they did to us last year and the problems they present at both ends of the floor….. We wouldn't have scheduled the game if we didn't think that we could compete and compete to win. Baylor's had our number." The Musketeers are undervalued here and they’re primed to make a statement tonight! Take Xavier |
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11-27-17 | Lakers +4.5 v. Clippers | 115-120 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Take the LA Lakers (#715) This situation sets up very well for the LA Lakers as ‘road’ underdogs at the Staples Center tonight. LA will get Larry Nance back in the lineup tonight, an impact player on the defensive end of the court. They had a ‘physical and chippy’ practice yesterday, coming off a bad loss at Sacramento last Wednesday, with a rare opportunity to get extra practice time in during their extended break over the weekend. And they’re facing ‘big brother’ in a season where the Clippers might not be the big brother any more, looking to make a statement against a team that has dominated them, including a 16 point win in the first meeting of the season. Much has changed for the Clippers since that first meeting. LA opened the season 4-0 SU and ATS. They are 3-11 SU and ATS since. The three wins have come against Dallas, Atlanta and Sacramento, arguably the three worst teams in the NBA this side of Chicago this season. Two of those wins just came over the weekend, as the Clips closed out their grueling five game East Coast swing with back-2-back wins over bottom feeders. They didn’t even cover as -4 point road favorites at Sacramento on Saturday, lucky to escape with a two point victory. The Clippers are still dealing with significant injuries, with their top two projected point guards – expected to replace Chris Paul, mind you – both languishing on the sidelines in street clothes. Patrick Beverley is now out for the season; Milos Teodosic won’t suit up again until January. That duo gave Lonzo Ball and the Lakers backcourt all kinds of trouble when they met in October, but I’m expecting a very different story in the rematch. The Clippers have lost at home to the Pistons, Warriors, Grizzlies, Heat and 76ers in their last six tries here at the Staples Center, not exactly enjoying a dominant home court these days. They are, quite simply, not trustworthy as chalk tonight against an opponent with something to prove…..and the talent level to prove it! Take the Lakers. |
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11-27-17 | Cavs v. 76ers -2 | 113-91 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#704) When it comes to regular season games in November, when one team is primed to ‘bring it’ and the other team is not, there’s not a ton of additional handicapping required. And this is one game where the 76ers are primed to bring their ‘A’ game, looking to make a statement on their home floor. Sixers head coach Brett Brown, talking about the importance of tonight’s game for his emerging young team: “Cleveland is going to come in, and it's going to be amazing for the building. This building is wild. How about our fans? Are you kidding me? I can't even talk to my coaching staff sometimes and they're a foot from me. It's fantastic. What a great thing for our city…We're playing good basketball. We look forward to seeing them.” It’s surely worth noting that Philly sat point guard Ben Simmons on Saturday so he would be ready to go tonight. While this game means EVERYTHING to Philly, it’s just another regular season road game for the Cavs. Cleveland’s sense of urgency following their rough start has passed – they’ve won seven straight games. It’s worth noting that none of those seven victories came against a team as good as the one they’ll face tonight. AND it’s worth noting that despite seven straight wins off a rough start, the markets aren’t sleeping on the Cavs – they went just 3-4 ATS while notching those victories, a team still being priced a notch or two too high compared to their level of early season play. Take the 76ers. |
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11-26-17 | St. Mary's v. Georgia +7 | 81-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#564) St Mary’s has been an overvalued commodity from Day 1 this season. I understand the Gaels have Top 25 talent, and their ranking is no accident. But the markets understand that too, hence St Mary’s ATS struggles to open the campaign. The Gaels have shot 52% from the floor, 44% from three point range and 81% from the free throw line this season—they’re not going to shoot any better than that. Yet despite those elite numbers, St Mary’s has only covered one pointspread in four tries, and they’re coming off an outright loss as 18 point chalk in the semi-finals. This is a ‘disappointment’ game for a Gaels squad hoping for big, signature wins in this tourney, because they won’t get many of those one WCC Conference play begins. Georgia dealt with a bout of food poisoning on Friday, then proceeded to blow a double digit lead in a loss to San Diego State; a very misleading final score given the flow of that game and the circumstances surrounding it. Preseason SEC Player of the Year Yante Maten hit just 4-15 shots and lost his cool in a foul fest. The Aztecs closed out the game on a 12-4 run, turning a late Georgia lead into a seven point loss. Facing an overvalued commodity that has struggled defensively all year, look for Maten and the Bulldogs to bounce back strong and hang tough in the underdog role today; a game they’re quite capable of winning in outright fashion. Take Georgia. |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 97 h 47 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#268) This is truly the mother of all spot plays in the NFL this year. We’ve got the LA Rams, humbled and hungry; returning home with something to prove off an ugly loss at Minnesota, outscored 24-0 after their opening touchdown drive. We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. Yet the pointspread here is less than a field goal – the Saints have developed a fairly significant betting bandwagon over the course of their extended run. LA isn’t going to hang their heads in shame off last week’s loss, as these quotes clearly tell us. QB Jared Goff: “We’ve responded to every bit of adversity we’ve faced so far, and I expect no different.” Head coach Sean McVay: “We didn't do enough things to win the football game, and it starts with me. We talk about it every single week, how you've got to be ready to go because it is a very humbling league. We definitely got humbled today by a very good team." DT Aaron Donald: “Their offensive line couldn’t block us one-on-one. Case (Keenum) just did a good job of moving around in the pocket.” McVay is 10% correct about the Rams ability to bounce back from adversity. Following a Week 2 loss to the Redskins, LA bounced back with consecutive victories; scoring 76 points in the process. Following a ‘crushing’ turnover filled home loss to the Seahawks in Week 5, the Rams won their next two games before the bye by a 60-17 combined score, including an impressive double digit road win at Jacksonville. I trust LA to bounce back strong because they’ve already shown us they can. That Aaron Donald quote about the Rams pass rush and Case Keenum’s mobility matters here as well. Drew Brees doesn’t have that same mobility, and he’s been feasting on the weak, beating the likes of the Dolphins, the Lions (in a Detroit turnover debacle), the Packers (with Brett Hundley), the Bears, the Bucs, the Bills and a Redskins team with injuries all over their defense in their last seven victories. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week. Take the Rams. |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle – San Francisco OVER (#264-265) There are two key factors in play for me in this game; an Over waiting for kickoff. First, the Seahawks just morphed into an Over team. They haven’t been able to run the ball all year. Russell Wilson has been their leading rusher three times I their last four games. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls are at 2.5 and 2.6 yards per carry for the season. Last week, they finally gave up on the run, with only 17 carries from the backs, compared to 52 runs/throws from Wilson. That’s a big deal, because Russell Wilson makes big plays. It’s not like this team is short on downfield receiving talent with Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson combining for 29 receptions of 20+ yards between them. And it’s not like the Seahawks haven’t gone ‘pass first’ before when their running game wasn’t working – they’ve done it in each of the last two seasons, closing out the 2016 regular season on a 9-5 run to the Over and the 2015 campaign featured a 6-2 midseason run to the Over. Second, I want Kyle Shanahan’s offense off a bye week against a Seahawks defense that is riddled with injuries. Cliff Avril, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor matter A LOT; a trio of pro bowl candidates that are now sitting on the sidelines. Throw in injuries to Bobby Wagner, Jarran Reed, Michael Wilhoite, Shaquill Griffin and others, and we’re talking about a Seahawks defense that’s in a world of hurt right now. Kyle Shanahan got the 49ers job because of his track record as a brilliant offensive mind and a top notch play caller. San Fran hasn’t had the offensive personnel in place to implement much of Shanahan’s playbook, but their just concluded bye week gave them a chance to tweak and adjust. Shanahan also made the right call to keep CJ Beathard as the starting QB, not Jimmy Garappolo, with the 49ers coming off their best offensive game of the season – a 31 point outburst -- prior to their bye. Shanahan: “I did go into the weekend and all week and into Monday considering Jimmy But definitely the way that last game went, I knew it was going to make it easier for me to stick with what we’ve been doing, because I think we’ve made a stride in that way. Beathard: “Being a rookie in an NFL offense and starting the first year, the more you play, the more your playbook expands, the more you can do. This will be my fifth start. I can handle a little more week in, week out. Coach knows that as well.” Tight end George Kittle: “C.J., he’s rolling right now. It’s going to stay that way.” Seattle is still being totaled like the defensive minded, offensively anemic squad they were earlier in the campaign. San Fran has scored 10 points or less in half of their games this season, not a squad that the markets are excited about betting Overs with. But it all together and we’re looking at a particularly strong Over wager at the current number, worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Take the OVER. |
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11-25-17 | Colorado +10.5 v. Utah | 13-34 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 17 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take Colorado (#187) This pointspread is simply out of whack with both current realities and recent history. Let’s start with this. Utah and Colorado play close games. Each of the six meetings – all regular season finales, like this one -- between these two schools since they joined the PAC-12 have been decided by a touchdown or less. Then we’ve got the freshness factor. Both of these teams need one win to clinch bowl eligibility – the winner goes bowling while the loser stays home for the holidays, as simple as that. Colorado had last week off, a MUCH needed bye after playing eleven consecutive games to open the season. Utah had no such break – their last bye came in September. And the Utes are coming off a truly dispiriting defeat, allowing ten points in the final MINUTE to blow the game at Washington. And THAT came on the heels of a turnover debacle at home to Washington State; a game they trailed throughout. Utah is 1-6 in their last seven PAC-12 games. Their defense isn’t forcing turnovers. They’ve struggled against the run and the pass in recent weeks. They’ve lost SU on this field to Wazzou, Stanford and Arizona State, the latter as ten point favorites. This is not a team to be laying double digits with right now. Nor is this a series that has been friendly to favorites. The quotes out of Boulder have been nothing but positive all week, a re-energized team with a clear goal for Saturday Night. Coach Mike MacIntyre (who has a pretty good track record in games like this one, dating back to his tenure at San Jose St): “This university has a great history. For years, you didn't even think about them not going to a bowl game. That tradition is here, which it should be. Last year, the guys got it started and this year they want to keep it going. I know some of the guys that were here last year have been calling and saying, 'Don't let it end.' That would be extremely important for us to keep it going. ... I think it affects the overall view of the program. Momentum-wise on recruiting and things like that, I think it makes a bigger deal." The Buffs have a great running back in Philip Lindsey, who entered the weekend leading the nation in rushing attempts. "I'm a soldier, period. I take what I have to do. I'm going to continue to do that. That's it. I just want to win for the program, for my teammates and my family. That's what it's all about. I've learned that when you play hard, good things come your way." Lindsey is exactly what I want in a game like this one; a back who can grind out first downs and shorten the game for this double digit underdog. And I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend at least a little taste of the moneyline at +330 or higher. Big Ticket: Take Colorado. |
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11-25-17 | Bucks -1.5 v. Jazz | 108-121 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#717) Utah has won six straight meetings with Milwaukee, a streak that dates back to the start of the 2014-15 campaign. That streak ends tonight. At 8-11, the Jazz have played mediocre basketball to the casual observer. It’s far worse than ‘mediocre’ to this observer. Make no mistake about it – this Jazz team is WAY down from what we saw last year. Utah got nothing from losing their best offensive player from last year in free agency, Gordon Hayward. They lost their best defensive player to injury, low post stud Rudy Gobert, out till mid-December. Starting point guard Ricky Rubio is banged up, in and out of the lineup in recent weeks. Thabo Sefolosha is limited with a bum knee. Veteran sharpshooter Joe Johnson is sitting with a wrist injury. Right now, Quin Snyder’s rotation isn’t pretty – lots of young guys getting court time they probably don’t deserve, with a very ‘hit or miss’ bench when the starters are sitting. The Jazz beat Denver on the first night of the season. Since that victory, they’ve notched a grand total of one win against an opponent with a winning record, and even that game went to OT vs. the ‘not elite’ Blazers. The Jazz are coming off a very satisfying 30 point blowout win over the hapless Bulls. The last time Utah won back-2-back games was back in October. Utah’s one strong homecourt? They’ve lost SU and ATS in Salt Lake City to Toronto, Philly, Miami and Minnesota already this month. This is not a team to trust stepping up in class off a win against quality competition. The Bucks are expected to get emerging superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo back in the lineup today after he sat at Phoenix on Wednesday. Point guard Eric Bledsoe is developing rhythm with his new teammates by the day, coming off a Bucks high 30 point effort. Malcolm Brogdon, who’s playing time was the most affected by the Bledsoe trade, is coming off his best game since the deal, finally finding a rhythm off the bench. There’s no comparison between these two teams right now, making the Bucks are clear choice for this bettor in a game where the SU win should equate to the ATS victory. Take the Bucks. |
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11-25-17 | Blazers v. Wizards UNDER 203.5 | 108-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Portland – Washington UNDER (#705-706) If you’re a regular client of mine, you already know the drill. We’ve been riding the Wizards Under of late, an emerging trend that has been playing great dividends in recent weeks. Washington had cashed nine consecutive Unders (very quietly, waaaaaaay underneath the radar) prior to their last game against Charlotte. The defensive effort wasn’t there against the Hornets, resulting in a 129-124 overtime defeat that flew over the total in regulation. Now the Wizards have lost three of their last four. Sparkplug point guard John Wall has been shut down for a week or two, but Wall left his teammates with this quote, following the Wizards loss to Charlotte: “It’s terrible. The fault was defensively, giving up offensive rebounds and those 50-50 balls…..That’s where they won the game.” It’s surely worth noting that prior to allowing the 129 vs. Charlotte, Washington had allowed 100 points or less in each of their previous seven contests. Wall’s absence (with Tim Frazier taking over as the starting point guard), leaves Washington much weaker (and much slower) on offense. This has all the makings of a ‘step-up’ defensive spot. And their opponent, Portland, currently ranks #3 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, despite a wild 127-125 shootout in Brooklyn yesterday. Damian Lillard, following that victory: “I think we played a really good offensive game….. We just gotta figure out how to have those kind of offensive games and not lose the defense.” Prior to yesterday’s game, the Blazers, like the Wizards, had been bringing it every night on the defensive end, holding each of their previous nine foes to 101 points or less. With both teams likely to step up defensively here, let’s ride this Wizards Run of Unders one more time. Take the UNDER. |
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11-25-17 | Texas-Arlington -8 v. Niagara | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Texas Arlington (#757) I want my money ON Texas Arlington in a tournament setting. The Mavericks won 27 games last year but didn’t get a Big Dance bid, relegated to the NIT. They return loads of talent, starting with their senior point guard Erick Neal and senior big man Kevin Hervey. 7 foot graduate transfer Johnny Hamilton is a nasty low post defender and the team’s second leading scorer. Scott Cross has a rotation that goes nine players deep; only Neal averages 30 minutes per game - this a team we can support comfortably in a short turnaround, neutral court setting. It’s surely worth noting that UTA is a solid free throw shooting team, always key in this pointspread range. Niagara was a 10-23 team last year. Even with their starting cast returning, this squad can’t match the Mavs in terms of talent, size or depth, and their uptempo ways are bad news against a Mavs squad primed to take advantage of their transition opportunities. There’s a class difference between these two schools not reflected in this pointspread, and the Mavericks are a ‘bet-on’ team all the way in these tournament games, building a resume for March inclusion. Take UT-Arlington. |
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11-25-17 | UNLV +3 v. Nevada | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Take UNLV (#181) Reno is 2-9 this year. They’ve lost the battle for the Fremont Cannon in each of their last two tries at home, despite the fact that they had the better team both times. In fact, this series has shown no homefield edge whatsoever – the road squad is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS over the last five years. Yet the betting markets seem concerned that the Rebels won’t be up to the challenge as they try to reach bowl eligibility for the first time in the Tony Sanchez era. I’m not buying that argument. First and foremost, this young Rebels team has been winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway all year: 5-0 ATS, including SU wins as underdogs at Idaho, Fresno and New Mexico. Last week’s win against the Lobos was particularly confidence inspiring, as frosh QB Armani Rogers led the team down the field in the final minute for the game winning touchdown. Secondly, Reno has no defense. They’ve already lost a pair of games where the offense has put up more than 40 points, including one on this field against a 4-7 Air Force team in the midst of their worst season this decade. Three different opponents have rushed for 200+ yards AND thrown for 200+ yards against this stop unit in their last six ballgames. They’ve allowed 30 or more points nine times in eleven games. I expect the Rebels surprisingly potent offense to march up and down the field. Third, bowl eligibility matters – A LOT – for this UNLV squad, bowl free since 2013 (and the conference they play in, as UNLV is the only remaining team from the Mountain West that still can get there). Head coach Tony Sanchez: “Every game at UNLV is significant. You are talking about a team that has been bleeding for a long time. Every chance we have to move the program forward, to show progress, to get ourselves in the conversation to get a bowl game, it’s a big, big deal.” UNLV senior defensive lineman Mike Hughes, talking about the humiliation UNLV suffered in a 45-10 season ending home loss to Reno last year: “There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Last year was embarrassing. Seeing (the cannon) rolled away at the end of the game, that’s a picture that has been in my mind the whole year. I’m definitely looking forward to bringing it back.” Live dog here! Take UNLV. |
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11-25-17 | Georgia -11 v. Georgia Tech | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#167) Think Georgia is looking ahead to the SEC Championship Game next week? Think again! Kirby Smart was embarrassed by the Bulldogs defensive effort against the Yellow Jackets option last year in a 28-27 home loss and vowed not to let it happen again. Georgia Tech rushed for 5.4 yards per carry in that ballgame while gaining a whopping 164 yards on their six pass completions, rallying from a 13 point fourth quarter deficit to win. Kirby Smart got this job because of his ‘defensive guru’ reputation. Georgia’s defense has certainly been an elite unit all season long – only the uptempo, balanced offenses of Missouri and Auburn have produced 20 points against the Bulldogs this season. And Smart has been working on stopping the Yellow Jackets option since the summer, spending time every single week on Monday’s working to stop the Ramblin’ Wreck triple option attack. Smart’s quote, about his preparation defending the triple option this year: “I felt like you have to familiarize yourself. Really the players, if nothing more than your scout team, can only be so efficient doing something they don’t do all the time, but they can be as efficient as possible. So those Mondays have been really critical for them, those Mondays have been critical for our young players who haven’t been exposed to it. We have worked really hard on that. And then we spent some time in the off week.” Georgia Tech has multiple issues here. First, they don’t have many weapons, with QB Taquon Marshall carrying the ball more than any other Yellow Jacket QB this decade, by a fairly wide margin. Marshall has shown signs of wearing down from the heavy workload of late – the Yellow Jackets bye week came back on the first Saturday of October. Marshall is a master at breaking tackles, a big part of his success. But given the Bulldogs elite quartet of linebackers – a group that could all play on Sunday’s in the next year or two – I don’t expect Marshall to break many tackles here, which means the Georgia Tech offense is likely to struggle. That’s particularly bad news for Paul Johnson’s squad because there’s ample reason to think the Yellow Jackets defense is poised for a rough day as well. That defense let go of the rope in an ugly second half run-out at Duke last week. Now they’ll be facing a powerful rushing squad – Nick Chubb and Sony Michel average nearly seven yards per carry between them – combined with a potent passing game (Jake Fromm is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt). No surprise here if this game gets ugly for the home underdog…..Take Georgia. |
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11-24-17 | California +7 v. UCLA | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
Take California (#143) The betting markets have done exactly what we expect them to do when a coach gets fired before the end of the season; a classic knee jerk reaction. That’s why the Bruins are still laying a full touchdown here in a game they’ll be hard pressed to win, let alone win by any sort of a margin. UCLA offensive coordinator Jeff Fisch will serve as the interim coach this week. Reading between the lines from the players quotes after the firing, this doesn’t feel like a ‘win one for the Gipper’ type of effort for the home favorite, even with the potential for a bowl berth on the line with a victory here. Frankly, given UCLA’s struggles this season and their ongoing coaching search, a lower tier bowl bid isn’t much of a motivator for this squad. And given the season long struggles of the UCLA defense (particularly against the run, ranked #128), this is not an easy team to lay points with regardless of the circumstances. The only pointspread of -7 or higher that UCLA has covered all year came in Week 2 against Hawaii. Cal beat UCLA 36-10 as an underdog last year in Sonny Dykes final game with the team, and there’s no reason to think that the Bears can’t do it again in 2017! Cal came out of their bye last week with another shutdown defensive effort and their strong secondary matches up fairly well with Josh Rosen and the UCLA passing game. The Bears, like UCLA, are playing for a bowl bid, but there’s no questioning Cal’s motivation in Justin Wilcox’s first year – this team needs the extra practices and would be thrilled with a minor bowl invite, unlike their counterparts on the other sideline. Cal QB Ross Bowers has only thrown four INT’s in his last seven ballgames after throwing eight INT’s in his first four starts, making better decisions with the football. And Bears RB Patrick Laird is up to a full 6.0 yards per carry now; off a 7.7 ypc effort against Stanford last week; primed to run the football down the Bruins collective throats on Friday Night. Be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline for this one, with +230 or higher widely available as I write this. Take Cal. |
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11-24-17 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -6 | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#516) My clients and I cashed a winner betting against the Memphis Grizzlies in their home loss to Portland earlier in the week. Let me start with an extended excerpt from that write-up, giving a clear explanation of why the Grizz are a ‘bet-against’ team right now moving forward. Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect current realities: Things have gone from bad to worse for David Fizdale’s squad in recent weeks, a ‘must fade’ team in this pointspread range against any decent foe. The Grizz went 5-1 to the open the season. They are 2-9 since. One of their two best players, point guard Mike Conley, is out indefinitely with an Achilles issue. Injuries have forced Fizdale to bring Mario Chalmers and Chandler Parsons into the starting lineup, which has left the Grizzlies second unit with a real lack of scoring punch. The quotes coming out of Memphis aren’t exactly loaded with confidence and positivity these days. Here are some excerpts from what Marc Gasol said to reporters over the weekend; ‘bet-against’ stuff! (Read the full interview here) http://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/nba/grizzlies/2017/11/19/grizzlies-center-marc-gasol-sounds-off-embarrassing-and-sad-team/878743001/) Asked why they are struggling: “I think selfishness, but I don’t want to think it’s in a bad way. I don’t think guys are being selfish intentionally. But they’re thinking too much, or they’re allowed to think too much on themselves than on the team. We’ve got to get stops as a team. We’ve got to get good shots as a team. If we don’t do that, it’s a ripple effect that’s just hard to stop. You allow some things to happen, and it’s just hard. Defense doesn’t work if it’s four out of five guys, or three, or most of the time it’s two… To me, it’s embarrassing and sad." Asked how difficult is it to remain positive? “I went to the back and I stood there for 20 minutes trying to think of what to say to you guys. The only thing I can say is I apologize because that’s not what our fans are used to seeing and we’ve got to figure it out…..you’ve got to at least have the mindset of trying to learn and being team first and executing single plays. We have three plays, maybe four. So there’s not that many to remember.” Asked what is the biggest obstacle to building the chemistry? “I can’t put my finger on one thing. It’s not one thing. It’s multiple things that are all tied to each other. What I’ll tell you is that everybody has to look in the mirror.” Denver returns home off a rough road trip, losing Paul Millsap to a long term injury while suffering ugly blowout losses at Houston and in LA against the Lakers. Millsap’s injury hurts, but it’s not a dealbreaker for this squad – head coach Mike Malone isn’t short on frontcourt depth. And there’s extra emphasis on tonight’s game for the home favorite, if you believe this quote from Coach Malone: "It (was) an emotional trip. You lose one of your best players for an extended period of time, and you're going home after a real tough loss. But we're going home together. We're going home united. And we're going home with a belief that we're heading in the right direction." The Nuggets have won each of their last four games at the Pepsi Center by eight points or more, including ‘quality’ wins over the Thunder and Pelicans. Expect that emerging trend to continue tonight in a step-up spot for the home team. Take the Nuggets. |
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11-24-17 | BYU v. Alabama -7.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#624) Sorry, ran out of time on one of the busiest betting days of the year, so I’ve posted a link to a key ‘anti-BYU’ piece of the equation from the Salt Lake City Tribune below. http://www.sltrib.com/sports/byu-cougars/2017/11/23/byu-less-than-thrilled-with-setup-for-game-in-brooklyn/ BYU isn’t ready to face quality competition, a team that has changed their style of play completely between recent years (uptempo) and 2017-18 (much slower pace). Dave Rose’s squad isn’t playing much defense either, allowing 50% from the floor in their last two ballgames. ‘Bama is going to make us money this year – Avery Johnson has pushed the right buttons for in terms of recruiting and on floor play, with the Crimson Tide excelling with super-frosh Collin Sexton at the point. Look for the Crimson Tide to run away with this one; a game that shouldn’t be close enough for a foul fest in the final minute. Take Alabama. |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the LA Chargers (#109) Whatever the Dallas Cowboys were a month ago, they aren’t that same team any more. Sure, the suspension of Zeke Elliott matters. But the injuries to pro bowl left tackle Tyron Smith and star linebacker Sean Lee are far more impactful when it comes to the Cowboys current form. In the two games since Smith and Lee got hurt, the Cowboys lost 27-7 and 37-9. Dak Prescott’s passer rating in those two games was a 55.4 – Deshone Kizer territory – and the Cowboys offense managed to put only a single TD on the scoreboard in eight quarters of football. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense was gashed for 215 rushing yards at 6.5 ypc last week on the heels of 132 yards on the ground from the Falcons the week before. Even worse, the Cowboys allowed seven touchdowns in nine red zone tries over that two week span. Tyron Smith isn’t likely to suit up here and even if he does, I’m not expecting ‘pro bowl’ form. Sean Lee isn’t coming back from injury just yet, meaning that we can expect the Cowboys defensive struggles to continue. All of Dallas’s season long stats are lying right now – this team has lost their collective mojo and I don’t trust Jason Garrett to fix it on a short week. Right now, the Chargers are arguably the best team in the AFC West; playing far better than their 4-6 record would indicate. In fact, since their 0-4 start, LA is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, the only SU losses coming in competitive games at New England and Jacksonville – no shame there. San Diego’s pass rush has been devastating; a top notch defensive ballclub. Philip Rivers continues to make plays downfield on a weekly basis while explosive RB Melvin Gordon has averaged better than five yards per carry over the last three weeks. The betting markets have adjusted the Cowboys down and the Chargers up off last week’s showings. Frankly, they haven’t adjusted enough in a game where the SU win for LA equates to a pointspread cover. Take the Chargers. |
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11-22-17 | Raptors v. Knicks +4 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Take the New York Knicks (#510) For many years, the homecourt at Madison Square Garden hasn’t provided much of an edge for the New York Knicks. That long term trend has been costing anti-Knicks bettors plenty so far this season. Since losing to Detroit by 4 in their first home game of the season, the Knicks are 8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS on this floor. That includes outright upsets over the Nuggets, Cavs, Pacers, Hornets and Clippers as well as a three point, spread-covering defeat to the Cavs. Betting ON the Knicks in New York is a moneymaking strategy for a young team that plays MUCH better at home (five road games, four 20+ point losses). One of those losses came to Toronto this past weekend, a non-competitive 23 point defeat. Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek, talking about the short turnaround rematch. "They took it to us pretty good. It's an opportunity to come back and do the right things. We're working our game, trying to be consistent with our effort every night, trying to make proper rotations, and if we can duplicate (Monday's win over the Los Angeles Clippers) in terms of that focus, we'll have a chance." The Raptors are living on hot shooting, just shy of 52% from the floor over their last five ballgames. That won’t be easy to duplicate here against a Knicks team holding foes to 42% shooting over their last five contests, even better than that at home. And Toronto is a ‘fat and happy’ squad off four straight wins, including a very satisfying victory over Eastern Conference rival Washington in their last game. Look for the Knicks to get their revenge here….or at least come pretty darn close. Take the Knicks. |
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11-20-17 | Wizards v. Bucks UNDER 207 | 99-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Milwaukee UNDER (#513-514) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winning bets riding the Wizards under-the-radar 78-0 Run to the Under. I have no hesitation coming right back with another Under wager on Monday, a game where Wizards sparkplug point guard John Wall is likely to be limited (knee) if he suits up at all. Let me start with an excerpt from my Wizards Under write-up from yesterday. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed eight straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight.” “John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following a win at Miami: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." Wall didn’t suit up yesterday, but the Wizards defense was still intense, holding Toronto to 40 second half points; another game that finished double digits Under the total. He might play tonight; I’m comfortable riding this Under trend whether Wall suits up or not. And the Bucks certainly play right into the ‘defensive mindset’ expectation this evening after a defensive no-show on Saturday at Dallas; the first time in five games that they had allowed more than 103 points. Bottom line – I’m going to ride this emerging Wizards Under trend, with the markets not seeming to show much interest in it…..yet! Take the Under. |
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11-20-17 | Blazers -2 v. Grizzlies | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#511) Things have gone from bad to worse for David Fizdale’s squad in recent weeks, a ‘must fade’ team in this pointspread range against any decent foe. The Grizz went 5-1 to the open the season. They are 2-7 since, including a one point win at Portland less than two weeks ago. One of their two best players, point guard Mike Conley, is out indefinitely with an Achilles issue. Injuries have forced Fizdale to bring Mario Chalmers and Chandler Parsons into the starting lineup, which has left the Grizzlies second unit with a real lack of scoring punch. The quotes coming out of Memphis aren’t exactly loaded with confidence and positivity these days. Here’s some excerpts from what Marc Gasol said to reporters over the weekend; ‘bet-against’ stuff! (Read the full interview here) http://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/nba/grizzlies/2017/11/19/grizzlies-center-marc-gasol-sounds-off-embarrassing-and-sad-team/878743001/) Asked why they are struggling: “I think selfishness, but I don’t want to think it’s in a bad way. I don’t think guys are being selfish intentionally. But they’re thinking too much, or they’re allowed to think too much on themselves than on the team. We’ve got to get stops as a team. We’ve got to get good shots as a team. If we don’t do that, it’s a ripple effect that’s just hard to stop. You allow some things to happen, and it’s just hard. Defense doesn’t work if it’s four out of five guys, or three, or most of the time it’s two… To me, it’s embarrassing and sad." Asked how difficult is it to remain positive? “I went to the back and I stood there for 20 minutes trying to think of what to say to you guys. The only thing I can say is I apologize because that’s not what our fans are used to seeing and we’ve got to figure it out…..you’ve got to at least have the mindset of trying to learn and being team first and executing single plays. We have three plays, maybe four. So there’s not that many to remember.” Asked what is the biggest obstacle to building the chemistry? “I can’t put my finger on one thing. It’s not one thing. It’s multiple things that are all tied to each other. What I’ll tell you is that everybody has to look in the mirror. That’s how things get solved. If you don’t do your part, I don’t care how many fingers we point at each other, that doesn’t help. You’ve got to do your part first. Be honest with yourself.” Portland’s one point loss at home to the Grizz came on a night where Mike Conley’s defense shut down Damian Lillard, to the tune of 12 points on 4-16 shooting. I’m expecting a much better showing from the Blazers point guard without his Grizzlies counterpart on the floor. Take the Blazers. |
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11-20-17 | Pacers v. Magic -3.5 | 105-97 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#508) There’s a real sense of urgency in Orlando tonight. The Magic have seen their hot start go south of late. After a win in Phoenix last weekend, Frank Vogel’s squad proceeded to close out their road trip with three consecutive losses. They returned home on Saturday and got absolutely blitzed, trailing by as many as 46 in an ugly loss to Utah. They’ve got another four game road trip looming on deck, starting in Minnesota on Wednesday. Clearly, this is a ‘step-up’ spot for the short home favorite. Head coach Frank Vogel: “We'll see how we respond to this game. I'm less concerned with what happened in this game and more concerned with how we respond from it." Point guard Elfrid Payton: “Monday is a must-win for this group. Obviously, it's still early. We still have time to get better. But internally I feel like we've got to show some fight." Center Nikola Vucevic: “It's critical that we get these……at home, we have to find a way." Make no mistake about it – this is a bigtime flat spot on Indiana’s schedule. On Friday Night, the Pacers played with maximum intensity, rallying from a 22 point second half deficit to beat the Pistons. That momentum carried forward to their game at Miami yesterday; a game where they shot 60% from the field while getting whistled for only 14 hours in four quarters of basketball. Now, playing on the second of back-2-backs and their third game in four nights, coming off a max intensity game and a ridiculously hot shooting game, look for the Pacers to fall back to earth against their ‘max motivation’ foe. Take the Magic. |
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11-19-17 | Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 212.5 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Toronto UNDER (#703-704) My clients and I have cashed several winning bets riding the Wizards under-the-radar 7-0 Run to the Under. I have no hesitation coming right back with another Under wager in early start action today, a game where Wizards sparkplug point guard John Wall will be limited (knee) if he suits up at all. Let me start with an excerpt from my Wizards Under write-up from Friday Night. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed seven straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight.” “John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following a win at Miami in the first half of this home & home set: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." But Brooks was not amused by the Wizards defensive effort against Miami in the rematch on Friday, despite the fact that the Heat were held to 91 points on 41% shooting. “We got down on ourselves. When we got down on ourselves, we put our heads down instead of running back and making up for it on the other end. The stats basically tell you that. They had 19 fast-break points in the first half." I’m expecting a step-up effort defensively from the Wizards today, and the Raptors just held the Knicks to 84 points on Friday Night in a strong defensive showing of their own. Bottom line – I’m going to ride this emerging Wizards Under trend, with the markets not seeming to show much interest in it…..yet! Take the Under. |
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11-19-17 | Bucs v. Dolphins | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#455) I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. When we get a chance to bet against the Dolphins in a pick em priced game, we should have no hesitation making that bet. Miami has shown plenty of ‘quit’ in recent weeks, a team with the worst yards per play differential in the NFL – they gain 4.5 but allow 5.7, even worse numbers than the dismal Giants, Browns or 49ers. Those numbers aren’t fraudulent. The Dolphins have stolen more than their fair share of wins they didn’t deserve this season (missed field goal by the Chargers, Matt Cassel at QB vs. the Titans, very lucky comeback win vs. the Falcons, Matt Moore getting hot late vs. the Jets). This is a squad that could easily be sitting at 1-8 or 0-9 and being priced in the same range New York, Cleveland and San Fran are priced in the markets at this stage of the campaign. The Bucs defense showed pride last week in a dominating showing against the Jets, giving a disappointing squad a real spark of life heading into their matchup with the ‘lots of quit’ Dolphins. From a talent standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two teams – Tampa has the playmakers on both sides of the ball. And frankly, we should expect Jay Cutler mistakes, and when those mistakes happen, I’m not expecting the home team to respond well…. Take the Bucs. |
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11-19-17 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#461) From all indications, we can stick a fork in the Houston Texans right about now, because they are done. Think about what this squad has been through since the start of training camp. A hurricane severely disrupted their preseason. Their head coach cost them potential upsets at New England and Seattle with inane late game decision making. Their owner infuriated his players with his remarks at a well-publicized meeting in an atmosphere of racial tension. Their two best defensive players got knocked out for the year in a national TV home beatdown by KC. Their pro bowl offensive tackle held out, came back for a couple of weeks and then was traded at the deadline. And then, the final straw, was when their sparkplug, QB Deshaun Watson, in the midst of setting all time rookie records, went down in practice. Talk about going through the ringer! Tom Savage is god-awful. The Texans immediate, immense improvement once Watson took over as the starting QB was no accident. In the three games that Savage has started this year, the Texans scored a grand total of three offensive touchdowns, exactly one per game. They are 0-3 in those games, losing twice as a favorite (-6 and -5.5). All three of those losses came by double digits against the pointspread. Savage has completed only 47% of his passes, not throwing at an NFL level. There’s a reason that the Texans have brought in a half dozen QB’s since drafting Savage – they know he shouldn’t be out there. Deep threat Will Fuller won’t play this week, an underrated key to Houston’s gameplan. The Texans aren’t primed to score many points here, and this defense isn’t stopping anyone; picked apart consistently since Watt and Mercilus went down. Arizona continues to fight the good fight, and Blaine Gabbert is an undervalued commodity in this equation. The Cardinals, too, have suffered the injury bug in a big way this season. Yes, they’ve suffered a couple of ugly, embarrassing losses at Philly and against the Rams in London – two elite teams, mind you. But we’ve seen plenty of fight in Bruce Arians squad – two wins and a hard fought loss against the Seahawks last week. They’ve had extra prep time here off the Thursday game, and with 40 career starts under his belt and the ability to scramble out of the pocket, Blaine Gabbert is a QB I want my money on this week. Arians, talking about Gabbert at the end of the preseason: “I've been very pleased. Short-term, I'd be very comfortable if he had to play for us. Long-term, if he continues at this rate, he could be a starter.” Arians this past week, when asked why Gabbert has such a bad reputation as an NFL QB : “He was on really shitty teams.” Which he was; playing behind arguably the worst offensive lines in the NFL in both San Francisco and Jacksonville. Arizona’s offensive line isn’t great, but it’s better than anything Gabbert has played behind in his career! This game ain’t no pick ‘em – Arizona is the superior, harder playing squad, primed to win on Sunday. Big Ticket: Take the Cardinals. |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants OVER 45 | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 14 m | Show | |
Take KC – New York Giants OVER (#453-454) I don’t trust this Chiefs defense one iota. KC has gone 1-3 SU since their 5-0 start because they haven’t been able to stop anybody. A struggling Raiders offense that hadn’t worked in more than a month picked apart the KC pass defense to the tune of 417 yards and 31 points. The following week, Oakland was shut down again. Then a Broncos team with no passing game whatsoever and an injury riddled, struggling offensive line run the ball all night against the Chiefs; to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, 177 yards on the ground. The following week, Denver’s offense couldn’t move the football. Then the Chiefs faced Dallas right before their bye. It was more of the same: four TD’s in four red zone tries behind a balanced attack. Even after the bye, make no mistake about it – KC does NOT have a good defense; unable to stop the run OR the pass right now. From a yards per play standpoint, KC is tied for #31 in the NFL on defense. And the Giants offense that finally moved the football last week: 19 first downs, 374 yards, 5.9 yards per play; scoring two TD’s in three red zone tries. The Chiefs are tied with the Saints for with the most explosive offense in the league, averaging 6.2 yards per play. That’s bad news for the Giants defense – they’re the ones tied with KC at #31 in the NFL, allowing a full six yards per play. The G-men have shown plenty of defensive quit in recent weeks, allowing 82 points in their last two ballgames. The G-men are a veteran squad that expected better this season; showing a clear disconnect with the coaching staff. Expect a handful of big play TD’s and a minimal number of red zone stops….. Take the Over. |
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11-18-17 | Arizona University +2.5 v. Oregon | 28-48 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#365) I want my money ON Khalil Tate and the Arizona Wildcats any time they face a defense that is vulnerable. The best QB in the country that nobody is talking about did it again in their last road game, rallying Arizona from a 28-6 deficit to tie the game 35-35 at USC before a late Trojans score doomed their chances. And Tate did it again last week, torching Oregon State for 49 points, bouncing back nicely from the USC defeat. RichRod knows that his QB has probably saved his job, improving from 3-9 last year to 7-3 this season. His quote: “(that can happen) when you’re getting the kind of quarterback play we’ve gotten out of Khalil.” Despite barely playing the first four games, Tate ranks seventh in the nation in rushing (1,293 yards)and leads the PAC-12 in passing efficiency (155.5) – better than Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen; both likely first round draft choices next spring. Oregon head coach Willie Taggert knows what he’s up against too. Asked about his defensive gameplan, here is Taggert’s quote: “Pray. No one has stopped him yet this year. He’s a heck of a talent. Big-time football player and is really good with the ball in his hand.” The Ducks have lost four out of five since starting QB Justin Herbert got hurt, with all four losses coming by 17 points or more – non-competitive blowouts. Herbert could be back this week (officially a ‘game time decision’) and the markets are likely to move significantly based on his availability. But I’m not convinced he’s going to be anywhere near 100% if he does get the start. If he doesn’t the backup Burmeister has been nothing short of awful (14 points or less in all four recent losses and a 2-6 TD-INT ratio). And regardless of which QB gets the start, even off a bye week, Oregon’s defense has been gashed repeatedly with some particularly ugly numbers against the run. Wrong team favored here. Take Arizona. |
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11-18-17 | Jazz v. Magic -6.5 | 125-85 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#504) My clients and I have cashed a pair of winners betting against the Utah Jazz already this week. We cashed with a double digit home loss for Utah against Minnesota, then a late game meltdown loss against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. And quite frankly, Utah’s losing ways are primed to continue in Orlando this evening. Make no mistake about it – this Jazz team is WAY down from what we saw last year. Utah got nothing from losing their best offensive player from last year in free agency, Gordon Hayward. They just lost their best defensive player, low post stud Rudy Gobert, out till mid-December. Starting point guard Ricky Rubio is banged up, very questionable to play this evening. Thabo Sefolosha has a bum knee, unable to suit up last night. Veteran sharpshooter Joe Johnson is sitting with a wrist injury. Right now, Quin Snyder’s rotation isn’t pretty – lots of young guys getting court time they probably don’t deserve. It’s not like the Jazz were playing good ball when Gobert got hurt – they’d lost four straight before a win over Brooklyn, and they’ve dropped their last three SU and ATS. The Jazz have shown no ability to win (or even hang tough) on the highway this season: 0-6 SU and just 1-5 ATS, including an 8 point loss to the sub .500 Clippers, a 9 point loss to the bottom feeder Suns and an 11 point loss in the rematch at Brooklyn last night. It gets worse for the road dog. The short-handed Jazz have been through the ringer, schedule wise this month already. They are on their second set of back-to-back games in the last nine days; playing their sixth game in those nine days; anything but confident and fresh right now. Orlando hasn’t played since Wednesday and they’ve only had one set of back-2-backs all month. I expect them to be fresher here. And there’s a real sense of urgency in Orlando tonight after their hot start went south on a just concluded 1-3 road trip, with another road trip looming next week. Center Nikola Vucevic: “It's critical that we get these next two games at home. Right now, we're 8-7 and we need to stay above .500 before we go on this next trip. It's very important that we get these next two….. We have to find a way." I’m not seeing quotes like that from Utah right about now……Take the Magic. |
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11-18-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#413) Don’t be fooled for a minute by the recent run of success from the Ole Miss Rebels. Yes, Ole Miss has notched back-2-back wins with their backup QB behind center, knocking off Kentucky and Louisiana- Lafayette. But the Rebels defense was torched in both games. The Rajin’ Cajuns just hung 427 yards on them in Oxford, despite playing without four starters who were suspended on gameday. Every SEC foe they’ve faced has scored at least 34 points against the Rebels defense. And every SEC foe has gained at least 400 yards against them; even offensively challenged squads like LSU and Vandy. That’s particularly bad news for the Rebels considering that Texas A&M finally has their starting quarterback healthy and back on the field again. Remember back on the first weekend of the season when Texas A&M got out to a 31-3 lead before blowing the game against UCLA? QB Nick Starkel got hurt and left that contest with the Aggies leading by three touchdowns. Frankly, the offense wasn’t the same without him. Starkel was named the full time starter again last week in any easy, confidence building tuneup victory over New Mexico; a game that was 48-0 at halftime. Three Aggies receivers had more than 100 receiving yards in that ballgame, yet the markets have basically made no power rating adjustment to the return of Starkel to the lineup, sending frosh Kelly Mund back to the bench where he belongs. Ole Miss defensive coordinator Wesley McGriff knows what’s coming: “[Starkel] can pinpoint the ball. He's got a big arm. He can make every throw, and they're going to challenge us vertically." That’s particularly bad news considering that Ole Miss can’t stop the run either, allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry for the season. Ole Miss hasn’t had a bye week since mid-September, not exactly a fresh stop unit these days. And they’ve got their biggest rival up next on a short week, prepping for the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State – the only game that really matters for interim head coach Matt Luke’s future with the program. The Rebels lost their NFL caliber starting QB when Shea Patterson got hurt. Backup Jordan Ta’amu has played great in his absence so far, in three games against weak defenses. Texas A&M leads the SEC in sacks – they’ve got a nasty pass rush, primed to make life miserable for inexperienced backup QB’s. And if the Rebels fall behind here (as I expect they will), things could get ugly. Coach Luke: “You don’t want to get in a drop-back game where you’re throwing it and they know you’re throwing it….. They’re an aggressive, attacking defense and force you to make mistakes. It’s important we play really well and limit the negative plays.” Good luck with that, coach. Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M. |
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11-18-17 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#341) I’ve used this same basic write-up to support the Texas Longhorns in three previous tries as an underdog in Big 12 play, and I have no hesitation about using it again this week as Texas travels to Morgantown to take on the Mountaineers. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Now with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. They covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. Their defense shut down mighty Oklahoma State the following week, another wire-2-wire ATS cover as an underdog. When you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last 15 tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-4. That’s Straight Up! They’re 14-1 ATS, the only SU losses coming against teams with Top 10 talent: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is expected back in the lineup this week, expected to split snaps with Shane Buechele. Herman on Ehlinger: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” West Virginia ranks #93 in the country at stopping the run, so having the mobile Ehlinger available is a big deal for the Longhorns! Defensively, we’ve already seen Texas have success against the likes of Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold. Mountaineers head coach Dana Holgorsen knows what he’s up against: “Their defense is probably the best we’ve faced all year. Just a whole bunch of talent.” West Virginia’s defense? Not so much talent……. Take Texas. |
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11-17-17 | Pelicans v. Nuggets OVER 220.5 | 114-146 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans – Denver OVER (#719-720) Denver’s season long numbers show ‘middle of the pack’ pace ratings; not an uptempo, breakneck type of pace. New Orleans has played faster than Denver, but the Pelicans, too, haven’t played at a blistering pace on a consistent basis – yet! Both teams are playing faster now. New Orleans just got Rajon Rondo back from injury, giving them another strong passer in the backcourt. Big men Boogie and Brow are both enjoying CAREER high offensive efficiency numbers, finally fully acclimated to Alvin Gentry’s offense. And the results are very clear. The Pelicans have reached 111 four times in their last five games while shooting at a 52% clip, a stellar offensive ballclub right now. Denver’s early season numbers were weak on the offensive end of the court, and they cashed five consecutive unders to open the season, held to 105 or less in every game. That was then, this is now. On their last homestand, the Nuggets hung 129 on Toronto, 108 on Golden State!!, 112 on Brooklyn and 125 on Orlando, showing the type of ball movement that made head coach Mike Malone smile. But Denver is coming off a particularly flat effort at Portland on Wednesday, held to 82 points on 35.7% shooting; a wire-2-wire blowout loss. With starting guard Gary Harris back in the lineup this evening, sparkplug Will Barton heads back to his normal role as a primary scorer off the bench. Look for Denver offensive mojo to get back on track here in a highly entertaining uptempo Friday Night Shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-17-17 | Hornets -6 v. Bulls | 120-123 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Charlotte (#713) My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against the Bulls in their last home game, an 18 point loss to the Pacers. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up “Here’s the key quote from Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg, trying to make lemonade out of lemons after the Bulls second half comeback attempt fell short at Toronto on Tuesday: “The big thing with this team is when you have a learning opportunity, you grow. And I think our guys have responded well to that." For a young, rebuilding team like the Bulls, it’s all about ‘learning opportunities’ and ‘growing’. “Read between the lines of that quote and you’ll see the reality of the 2017-18 Bulls. Chicago might win a handful of games on hot shooting nights. They might win another handful of games when their opponents look past them. But the Bulls – even with Bobby Portis back in the lineup following his suspension – still rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring only 92.9 points per 100 possessions, a full dozen points lower than the NBA average”. My handicap on Chicago is very simple right now. Motivated teams going to beat the Bulls by margin. We’ve already seen three of the Bulls first five home games end with double digit defeats. And Charlotte is supremely motivated, coming off a dismal defensive showing in Nicolas Batum’s first game back from injury; their fifth consecutive defeat. This is a MAJOR step down in class for Steve Clifford’s squad, and there’s a real sense of urgency following their disappointing start. Clifford, talking about shortening his bench for their upcoming stretch of games: “In the next six (games), we'll play five of those against teams that were picked top 5 in either the East or the West. This isn't the time for guys to grow up; either they're ready to play or they're not." I expect them to be ready to beat the weak by margin in Chicago tonight. And it’s probably worth noting that the Hornets are a perfect 3-0 YTD when laying -4 or higher, showing early success in this pointspread role. Take the Hornets. |
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11-17-17 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 208 | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Miami UNDER (#703-704) Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed six straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight. John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following the win at Miami in the first half of this home & home set: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." Miami had no answers to the Wizards defensive pressure on Wednesday Night, taking one contested shot after the next, failing to reach 20 points in two of the four quarters. But the Heat are taking the challenge of slowing down Wall and Beal very seriously after that duo torched Miami for 53 points on Wednesday. Head coach Eric Spoelstra: “It seemed like they were living in the paint and at the free-throw line.” I’m not expecting that to happen two games in a row against a solid defensive squad. Take the Under. |
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers UNDER 221 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Take LA Lakers – Philadelphia UNDER (#721-722) The betting markets have been DEAD WRONG about the Lakers totals of late. And with Over money pouring in once again on the Lake-show, I have no hesitation getting involved with an Under bet this evening. Last year, the Lakers finished the season as the worst defensive team of the DECADE based on advanced metric stats. This year, so far, LA ranks #4 in defensive efficiency, holding foes under a point per possession. On their just concluded four game road trip, Over money showed for the Lakers in every single game. They stayed Under the total in Boston by 11.5 points, in Washington by 16.5 points, in Milwaukee by 29 points and in Phoenix by 37.5 points. LA is now 8-3 to the Under in their last eleven ballgames. They’ve just held back-2-back foes Under 100 points; both fast paced teams, holding foes to 43% shooting from the floor in their last five contests. The Lakers offensively are still very much a work in progress with rookie point guard Lonzo Ball still struggling with his shot – this team does not have a go-to scorer anywhere on the roster. This is a dead nuts Under team right now, with the markets continuing to point in the wrong direction. Both LA and Philly play relatively fast, amongst the league leaders in possessions per game – hence the total sitting above 220 as a write this. That’s simply too high for the Lake-show right now; a clear choice for this bettor. Take the UNDER. |
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11-15-17 | Jazz v. Knicks -3.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take the New York Knicks (#704) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner betting against the Utah Jazz on Monday; a game they trailed by double digits wire-2-wire at home against the T-wolves. And I have no hesitation continuing to fade Utah tonight as they open up an East Coast swing. Make no mistake about it. Utah got nothing from losing their best offensive player from last year in free agency, Gordon Hayward. They just lost their best defensive player, low post stud Rudy Gobert, out till mid-December. Like many teams do, the Jazz stepped up in their first game without their emerging young star, knocking off Brooklyn. What we saw from the Jazz last time out was much more indicative of what we can expect to see moving forward; a young team that lacks an identity right now; struggling on both ends of the court. It’s not like the Jazz were playing good ball when Gobert got hurt – they’d lost four straight before the win over Brooklyn. And it’s not like the Jazz have shown any ability to win on the highway this season: 0-4 SU including an 8 point loss to the sub .500 Clippers, a 9 point loss to the bottom feeder Suns and a 27 point loss at Houston in their last try as a road underdog. And, after closing out a stretch of eight home games in a nine game span with another defeat, it’s not like Quin Snyder’s squad is hitting the highway with a boatload of confidence right now. Despite the Jazz strong defensive reputation and even with Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz had allowed 48% shooting and 108 points per game against them in their previous five contests. That’s bad news against the suddenly competitive Knicks, a much better team (on and off the floor) since Carmelo Anthony got traded in the offseason. The Knicks big, bruising frontcourt – Kristaps Porzingas is playing like a superstar; Enes Kanter is grabbing 11 rebounds per game and Kyle O’Quinn has been impressive coming off the bench – is primed to take advantage of Utah without Gobert. The Knicks are 3-0 ATS in three tries as chalk this year, an emerging trend worth riding tonight. Take the Knicks. |
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11-15-17 | Wizards v. Heat -1 | 102-93 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#702) The Miami Heat swept all four games against the Washington Wizards last year, and it wasn’t an accident. Miami has quality depth; Washington doesn’t. Again and again, throughout the four meetings, when the Wizards starters left the floor, Miami made a run. That hasn’t changed in the offseason, two teams that look very similar today to how they looked six months ago. Washington’s bench continues to underachieve. They get a little bit of perimeter shooting from Mike Scott and Jodie Meeks. Kelly Oubre Jr has shown real signs of improvement in his third season. But make no mistake about it – when the Wizards face a team that has quality depth, they’re at a legitimate disadvantage. The Wizards have been feasting on a schedule loaded with weaklings. They’ve already faced the Lakers and Kings twice as well as Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix and Cleveland, when the Cavs were at their worst. Note the lousy defenses that they’ve been facing. Their just concluded homestand came against teams that are a combined 13-43 SU this season. I’m not expecting tonight’s step-up in class game to work out well for the road team in a game they must win to cover the spread. Meanwhile, Miami returns home off a confidence inspiring road trip. Sure, they went just 3-3, but all three losses all came in competitive fashion against teams that are a combined 29-12. Hassan Whiteside is now fully healthy off some early season injury woes. Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters make up the most underrated starting backcourt in the league; capable of hanging with Beal and Wall. And Eric Spoelstra’s deep bench is primed to be the superior unit again tonight in a game the Heat are primed to win. Take the Heat. |
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11-14-17 | Kansas v. Kentucky OVER 152 | 65-61 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Kansas – Kentucky OVER (#529-530) Kentucky is as young as it gets in college basketball, with John Calipari trotting out a starting lineup with five true freshmen. And Calipari is well aware that his young squad is struggling mightily on the defensive end of the court in early season play. His quote: “We’re just getting beat on the dribble by everybody. And defense starts on the ball. It always had. And if you can’t guard the ball it’s hard to win.” The Wildcats want to get out and run, but they haven’t been able to play at their preferred pace in either of their first two ballgames. They faced two slowdown, veteran squads in Utah Valley and Vermont at Rupp Arena to open the season, forcing the Wildcats to execute their halfcourt sets on both ends of the court. Clearly, Kentucky did not pass the ‘we’ve got our halfcourt execution down’ test. Of course, that sets up real value for Wildcats Over bettors tonight, facing a team that plays at a very different pace than the ones they’ve seen so far. Kansas isn’t built to play grinders any more than Kentucky is. With a savvy returning point guard in Devonte Graham, coming off a confidence and chemistry building summer trip to Italy, Bill Self’s squad is primed to run up and down the floor. They hung 56 on Tennessee State in the first HALF of their opener before slowing down the tempo in a blowout victory. Again, the ‘pace’ numbers won’t show Kansas as playing fast in that game because the second half was so slow, offering value for Over bettors here. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-13-17 | 76ers +2 v. Clippers | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#715) The Clippers current slide is nothing to sugarcoat. They’ve lost five straight games SU and ATS, including a pair of home losses as favorites against the Heat and Grizzlies. In fact, since a couple of early blowouts, the Clips are just 1-4 SU here at the Staples Center in their last five tries, the lone win coming against hapless Dallas. What’s wrong with LA? Lots of things that Doc Rivers isn’t likely to be able to fix anytime soon. The Clippers have injury woes, missing their top two point guards Patrick Beverly and Milos Teodosic. And the always injury prone Danilo Gallinari is sidelined again as well. They’re a sub .500 team now despite strong offensive stats, ranked #4 in the NBA in efficiency – stats that are primed to decline as they continue to play without their best point guards. Rookies Sindarius Thornwell and Juwan Evans are getting backcourt minutes they probably don’t deserve. Defensively, the Clippers have been a sieve, allowing more than 113 points per game on 50% shooting during their current skid. I want my money on Philly off back-2-back losses. The Sixers were flat and lethargic in a one point loss at Sacramento last Thursday, and followed it up with arguably their worst second half of the year after trailing by only one against Golden State at halftime. Think Philly is ready for a better effort tonight? These quotes might give you a glimpse…. Head coach Brett Brown: “The bar is set a little bit higher. The expectations are a little bit higher.I want to own it. With Joel healthy, I think we should. That’s what I’m trying to do. You can’t poke yourself in the eye. Those games haunt you. And, for all those reasons, I have the reaction that I had last night (off the bad loss) that, as you accurately say, has been different in previous years…. There are parts of (the Warriors game) that I think you will find positives in, but we feel like we're past that.” Robert Covington: “We will be better prepared. We have an idea how they are going to play. And we are (going to make) it be a different outcome." Joel Embiid: “We just have to do a better job. With the expectations out there, I don’t like using the excuse that we’re young, and I’m never going to use that. We’ve just got to do a better job of winning the games we are supposed to.” Ben Simmons: “I don’t think anyone expected us to come out like this, and have a strong start like this, but that’s what we expect. We come in every day trying to get better and win. That’s our goal. We should win games like that.” Take the 76ers. |
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11-13-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Jazz | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#709) The Utah Jazz had lost four straight before knocking off lowly Brooklyn on Saturday Night. They did it without elite defensive center Rudy Gobert in the lineup – he’s out till mid-December. Make no mistake about it – this is an impact injury for a guy who is averaging a double double while providing a serious shot blocking threat from the low post. Utah’s quotes following the game have a real ‘fat and happy’ feel to them following the end of their losing skid, despite the fact that the win came over the Nets. Derrick Favors: “We definitely needed this one. We came together as a team. We just went out there and played with a lot of energy. Rudy (Gobert) was out, so it was a team effort, defensively, offensively. We came in and brought a lot of energy, and won the game." Despite the Jazz strong defensive reputation and even with Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz had allowed 48% shooting and 108 points per game against them in their previous five contests, bad news with the high scoring Timberwolves coming to town; a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency. And the T-wolves enter this game in a nasty mood, with something to prove following ugly losses to the Warriors and Suns in their last two contests. Head coach Tom Thibodeau, following the ugly loss to the Suns in which Minnesota allowed a pair of 35 point scorers: "We've got to execute and we didn't execute. We got the lead and we gave it away. We took some tough shots and we just couldn't stop them." Expect a better defensive effort here, and better three point shooting as well, after the T-wolves managed to hit just 9-46 from beyond the arc in their last two ballgames. Look for a focused effort from the road favorite, start to finish. Take the T-wolves. |
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11-13-17 | Kings v. Wizards UNDER 208 | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Sacramento UNDER (#701-702) Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Three of their last four opponents have failed to reach the century mark and they’ve cashed four consecutive Under bets. That’s a streak primed to continue on Monday Night. John Wall, following the Wizards shutdown defensive effort last Thursday: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following their lone defensively weak game during this span, allowing 133 to the Mavericks: “It starts with me and John. We’ve got to come out better and be better leaders on the team. The rest will follow.” Sacramento ranks #29 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, a VERY limited team on that end of the court. They play at the #28 pace in the league – typical Dave Joeger basketball, not looking to push the pace against anybody. Sacto has been held under 100 points six times in their last seven games, and they managed just 83 points on 39% shooting against the Wizards less than three weeks ago, a game that stayed Under 208.5. Expect another Under cash tonight! Take the Under |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#264) This is the mother of all bad spots for the road favorite Saints, and the mother of all good spots for the home underdog Bills. The matchups work in Buffalo’s favor here, on both sides of the football. And yet public perception is down on Buffalo, while market support for New Orleans is sky high right now – my power rating number has the Bills as chalk here. When the matchups, situation and value all point in the same direction, we’re talking about a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Yes, the Saints have won six in a row since their 0-2 start. But this is not a team that is going 14-2, destined to never lose another game in the regular season. The quotes coming out of the New Orleans locker room have been pretty clear. The Saints know full well that they are not an elite ballclub. And they’re also a notch or two ‘fat and happy’ following a blowout home victory over their divisional rivals. Buffalo in November – even with fair conditions and gametime temperatures expected to be above 40 degrees – is not the Saints optimal venue; a team built for domes and turf. And the Saints are anything but battle tested during this winning streak where just about everything has broken right for them. This is NOT a ‘max intensity’ spot for the road team. The Saints six game winning streak has been mostly ‘right place, right time’. They faced Carolina before the Panthers fixed their broken offense. They got Jay Cutler in London. They got Detroit on a day where the Saints scored three non-offensive touchdowns. They got Brett Hundley in his NFL starting debut and Mitch Trubisky in his third career start. Last week, it was an ailing Jameis Winston before he gave way to tired retread Ryan Fitzpatrick. That, folks, is anything BUT a tough slate. Tyrod Taylor will be the best QB this team has seen in more than a month! The Saints defense has been great against the pass facing mostly bottom tier quarterbacks. But despite all of those weak QB’s and weak passing games that they’ve faced, New Orleans is still struggling to stop the run. That’s bad news against LeSean McCoy and the Bills power rushing game. McCoy wasn’t fresh last Thursday against the Jets, but the extra rest has him primed for a big bounceback this week. The Bills should get leading receiver TE Charles Clay back on the field here. And the Saints braintrust won’t have any film to watch trying to figure out how the Bills are going to use recently acquired Kelvin Benjamin at WR this week, giving Taylor another downfield weapon. The Bills pass defense has better overall numbers than New Orleans, with a 76.6 QB rating allowed. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) at home this year, gaining a legitimate edge when playing in Orchard Park. Coming off their debacle last Thursday Night, facing road trips to KC and LA, followed by the Patriots over the next three weeks, this IS a max intensity spot for the home underdog. Take the +3, but be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline in a game that the Bills are primed to win in outright fashion. Big Ticket: Take the Bills. |
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11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#265) Three basic points here. First, the Lions aren’t good enough to be laying double digits to anybody. Second, the Lions are in a truly miserable spot for any double digit favorite. And third, if there’s one week to be betting ON the Browns, this is the week! Let’s start from the top. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered two pointspreads – both on the road in divisional matchups against backup quarterbacks. They haven’t been favored by even a full field goal in any game this season. Detroit has won 13 games over the past two seasons. None of those 13 victories has come by more than two touchdowns. The Lions are most assuredly not a blowout team in the Jim Caldwell/Matthew Stafford era. Let’s not forget that Detroit’s -0.7 yards per play differential ranks #30 in the NFL, tied with winless San Fran. They’ve only reached 100 rushing yards once all season. Matthew Stafford has been sacked 26 times already. The Lions red zone offense ranks #27 in touchdown percentage, consistently settling for field goals. That matters A LOT in a pointspread range like this one. Detroit brought their ‘A’ game on Monday Night, winning for only the second time in their last 26 tries at Lambeau Field, a huge, emotionally satisfying victory. Up next? A road trip to face another division rival at Soldier Field in Chicago, followed by another divisional showdown against Minnesota. This is the very definition of a flat spot for a team with no track record of covering pointspreads in this role. That’s most assuredly not the case for the Cleveland Browns, a winless team coming off their bye week – a long term, positive expectation wagering situation. The Browns problems have been two-fold. First, their own red zone execution has been abysmal: dead last on defense, #28 on offense. Secondly, turnovers have killed this squad; an NFL high 21 giveaways compared to a bottom quartile nine takeaways. A bye week can only help in that regard, and the Browns are coming out of the bye as healthy as they’ve been all year. Look for Cleveland’s strong run defense to make the Lions offense one-dimensional . Look for the Lions to come out flat. Expect the back door to be wide open if Detroit does take a two score lead. And expect the hapless Cleveland Browns to cash our winning bet – let’s not forget that four of their eight losses have come by exactly three points……Take the Browns. |
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11-12-17 | Bengals v. Titans -4.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#262) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner betting against the Bengals last week in their 23-7 loss to Jacksonville. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up. Numbers have been lightly edited to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last five games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -9 for the season – their defense has only recovered one fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays.” The Bengals didn’t notch a single sack for the second time in their last three games against the Jags. They lost the ‘penalty yardage’ battle for the sixth straight week. They lost by double digits, SU and ATS, despite winning the turnover battle. And four the fourth time in eight games, Cinci was held to two TD’s or less; an offense that isn’t primed to suddenly get untracked here, even with AJ Green expected back on the field. Plain and simple – I have no hesitation betting against the Bungles these days, especially in games where they’ll need to win (or come pretty darn close) to cover the spread. Make no mistake about it – this Titans team has underachieved so far, in large part due to their red zone failures on offense, ranked near the bottom of the NFL in red zone TD percentage. The return of #1 draft choice WR Corey Davis from an injury absence can only help in that regard, especially since it should open things up for beefy backs Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry between the tackles. Titans WR Rishard Matthews, talking about how having Davis in the lineup will affect their offense: “A ton. That’s his job, is to come in here and be a playmaker. That’s what we all expect him to be. That’s what I expect him to come here and do right away. We got a little piece of it in the beginning of the year. He’s back and ready to go, so expecting big things.” Davis’s own quote: “This is the turnaround right here. I feel it.” There’s no betting bandwagon for Tennessee these days – their only pointspread cover since September came on a late garbage time TD with less than a minute to play against the Colts. This team is primed for a breakout game, Cinci is an ideal opponent to face right now, and the pointspread is downright cheap given the difference in both ability and mentality between these two squads right now. Take the Titans. |
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11-11-17 | 76ers +14 v. Warriors | 114-135 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#713) These teams have played five times since the calendar turned to 2015. The 76ers have covered the spread all five times. Three of those five meetings were decided by five points or less; the other two by 11 and 12, both still competitive in the fourth quarter. Last year, the Sixers came to Golden State and battled the Warriors to the wire, losing by 2 as 17 point dogs. And while the pointspread is a notch or two lower than last year’s meeting on this floor, I have no hesitation betting on Philly as a double digit underdog in a ‘step-up’ game for the road team. The 76ers have only one loss by more than ten points all year. They’ve won outright as underdogs on the road against the likes of Houston, Detroit and Utah; 5-1 ATS when catching points. The Sixers are in max intensity mode here, coming off a blown fourth quarter lead at Sacramento when they lost by a single point. Head coach Brett Brown, following that defeat: "We didn't execute anything down the stretch. We didn't deserve to win." I do not expect this to be a long term problem for the Sixers… Golden State is fat and happy, off five consecutive wins and covers. They’ll get Kevin Durant back in the lineup this evening, a classic NBA spot where big favorites tend to let down a little bit, especially given Omri Casspi’s impressive production while Durant was out. With an awkward early start time, facing a highly motivated defensive minded opponent with something to prove, look for this game to be a battle, not a blowout! Take the 76ers. |
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11-11-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Miami-FL | Top | 8-41 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#165) The pointspread for this game tells you all you need to know, with the Fighting Irish installed as road favorites despite Miami’s strong showing on this field against Virginia Tech last week. Miami is a fraudulent Top 10 team -- period. Their 8-0 record speaks volumes about who they’ve played, not how good they are. Most concerning, the Hurricanes have struggled to control the flow in the trenches, very bad news against the dominant Notre Dame offensive line. Miami is anything BUT fresh, rested and ready, playing down to the final possession in four of their last five games. The ‘Canes last bye week came in early September due to Hurricane Irma. This will be their eighth consecutive game since that unscheduled bye, and I expect it to show as fatigue builds up after halftime. Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier is anything BUT an elite collegiate signal caller. Over the past two games, Rosier is just 27-60 passing with four interceptions. Even playing with a lead against the Hokies last week, Rosier couldn’t avoid key mistakes. And it’s surely worth noting that in their previous two games, the Canes were outrushed 440-198 against Syracuse and North Carolina – not ACC elites on defense, to put it mildly. My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Notre Dame in their 49-14 blowout over USC last month. Let me use an excerpt from that write-up here, with numbers lightly edited to reflect current realities: “Football games are won and lost in the trenches. The astute handicapper will always assess the matchups on the offensive and defensive lines before placing a wager. Those matchups for this game are so one-sided, and the pointspread is so short that the Irish are a clear choice to this bettor, worthy of Big Ticket status”. “The Fighting Irish are LOADED on the offensive line. Senior left tackle Mike McClinchey and junior left guard Quenton Nelson both have ‘first round of the NFL draft’ potential for next spring. All five starters on that line could play on Sundays”. “Notre Dame ranks #4 in the nation in rushing yards and #1 in the nation in yards per carry, averaging a full seven yards every time they hand the football off. Josh Adams is averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per rush; Dexter Williams is at 10.7 and Deon McIntosh is at 5.7 ypc.” All eight Notre Dame wins this year have come by double digit margins. Their only loss – by a single point to Georgia – looks even better now, with the Bulldogs ranked #1 by the playoff committee; having won all of THEIR other games by two touchdowns or more. And don’t be fooled by the ‘competitive’ final score in the Notre Dame game last week. The Fighting Irish led by 32 before Brian Kelly pulled his starters, leading to three late ‘meaningless’ touchdowns for Wake (meaningless for the game flow, meaning FULL for the pointspread result). Notre Dame’s defense has forced multiple turnovers six times this season, forcing at least one turnover in every single game. Meanwhile their low risk offense has only turned the ball over twice in their last six games combined! If Miami sells out to stop the run, Brandon Wimbush can beat them deep. If they keep their safeties back to prevent the deep balls, the Irish will run the ball down their collective throats. Look for the Irish to get one step closer to the playoff picture with a comfortable win here. Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
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11-11-17 | Virginia v. Louisville -11 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Louisville (#164) We learned a few things about Virginia in their last road contest, a poorly played defeat at Pitt. First, while this team was REALLY hungry to gain bowl eligibility, they were cognizant that it wasn’t going to be their only opportunity to do so. The Cavs got that monkey off their backs last week, pulling the big upset over Georgia Tech and notching their sixth win. Their last winning season and bowl bid came back in 2011 – not a player nor a coach with the program had achieved that goal before. It was an intense back and forth game, followed by an intense celebration. I’m expecting the Cavaliers to be relatively flat this week, kind of like they were at Pitt; a game that broke wrong early and didn’t produce much fight late. I do not trust QB Kurt Benkert to make plays on the road against a solid defense. Benkert’s numbers in ACC play aren’t very good: 53% completions and 5.3 yards per attempt average, compared to 66% and 7.2 ypp in non-conference play. Virginia is not a team loaded with playmaking weapons for Benkert to hit downfield – this is a dink and dunk offense. And the Cavs defense must make the transition from facing an option attack to facing Bobby Petrino and Lamar Jackson running the spead with extra time to prepare. I do not expect that to be an easy transition for Bronco Mendenhall’s stop unit to make. Louisville went into their bye week sitting in last place in the ACC Atlantic Division, something that did not sit well with them during their extra time off. They also still remember Virginia’s near upset last year as 33.5 point underdogs. I’m expecting a focused Louisville squad on Saturday, primed to close out their three game season ending stretch against Virginia, Syracuse and Kentucky with some fireworks. There’s no Cardinals betting bandwagon at. Louisville has yet to cover a single pointspread as a favorite in 2017, which leads to cheap pointspreads like this one by the time we get to mid-November. Yes, Louisville is a notch or two down from last year’s 9-4 squad, and yes, Virginia is a notch or two better. But Louisville was -33.5 on the road at Virginia last year. This year they’re -11 at home; a FOUR TD power rating adjustment from the 2016 meeting. That’s too much of an adjustment, and -11 (or anything close) is too cheap! The reigning Heisman winner is primed for a breakout showing….. Take Louisville. |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +17 v. Ohio State | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#143) I understand that the Spartans are a very popular ‘public’ choice in early start action on Saturday, while the wiseguys are clearly taking the Ohio State side. That’s fine – I’ll stand with the Joes against the Pros when it comes to this matchup! Mark Dantonio has coached circles around Urban Meyer in every recent meeting. Sparty was a 3 TD underdog last year against Ohio St. They lost 17-16. In 2015, Sparty was +16.5 on this field in Columbus and won outright 17-14. 2014? Michigan State hung 37 on the Buckeyes, the most Ohio State allowed all season. 2013? Michigan St knocked off Meyer and the Buckeyes in the Big 10 Championship Game, winning by double digits as the underdog. In 2012, it was a 17-16 slugfest. In the five previous Dantonio – Meyer meetings, Ohio State has only been LEADING by more than two touchdowns for a total of five minutes, back in the 2014 game, and they’ve never won by that margin. It’s been a tight series, even in years where Ohio State has won the national championship, and even when Sparty went 4-8 last year. Michigan State is getting better as the season progresses. Their young defense has grown up in a hurry, and QB Brian Lewerke has shown dramatic improvement from his early season play, coming off back-2-back 400 yard passing games. Ohio State, on the other hand, has just seen their defense get shredded in back-2-back weeks, giving up 243 rushing yards to Iowa last week as a 17-17 tie turned into a 55-24 loss. That came just one week after Penn State hung 38 on them right here at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes still have all kinds of elite defensive talent, but it’s not the most confident stop unit in the world these days. And Meyer is navigating tricky waters this week when it comes to motivation for bouncing back. We saw some quit in Ohio State last week, and for an entire roster that has never been out of the college football playoff discussion this early before, there are legitimate questions about their motivation between now and the Michigan game. All the stats, the season long power ratings and the statistical profiles force this pointspread to be where it is; out of whack with current reality. Joes seem to recognize this more than pros when it comes to this matchup. Be sure to take at least a little taste of the moneyline in this one…..Take Michigan State. |
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11-11-17 | Duke -2.5 v. Army | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#141) I’ve got two basic rationales for a wager on Duke in early start action on Saturday. First, spot advantages don’t get much bigger than this one for the Blue Devils. Second, Duke is primed to shut down the Black Knights more than their defensive statistical profile might indicate; offering us line value even with the Blue Devils priced as short road chalk here. Let’s start with the spot. After a grueling stretch of nine straight weeks with a game, the Blue Devils finally got a bye last week to rest and recuperate. Duke won their first four, then lost their next five. Their chance for bowl eligibility -- salvaging their season following that 4-0 start – rests with this game, this week, and they know it. I expect Duke to bring maximum intensity here. The same cannot be said for Army. At 7-2, they’ve already clinched a rare bowl bid, and the Black Knights are coming off their biggest win of the season; a 21-0 shutout over Air Force. Army’s seniors had been winless against their rivals, and the Black Knights didn’t need to throw a single pass all afternoon, playing from ahead – it was a max intensity game played under advantageous circumstances. While this Army squad is every bit as good as last year’s team, let’s not forget two things about the state of the program. First, last year’s 8-5 season was their one and only winning campaign of the 21st century. And second, they’ve been favored by double digits in four of their seven wins – it’s not like the Black Knights have been knocking off ACC caliber foes to get to 7-2. In fact, their win over Air Force was their first as an underdog; favored by at least six points in every other game that they won. Duke beat Army 44-3 in 2015 and 13-6 last year. Note the common theme – Army’s offense didn’t work against the Blue Devils defense. I expect that to be the case this year as well. David Cutcliffe’s squad preps for the option every year, because they face Georgia Tech in conference every year. Cutcliffe usually schedules another option team like Army the previous two years or Navy back in 2013, when a nine win Middies squad suffered their worst loss of the season, 35-7, against Duke. Duke has pulled off a pair of outright upsets against Georgia Tech in the last three seasons as well; clearly a ‘bet-on’ team when they face option attacks (6-1 ATS L7 tries). Take Duke. |
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11-10-17 | Pacers -3 v. Bulls | 105-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#505) There’s an extreme sense of urgency for the Indiana Pacers tonight as they travel to Chicago in the midst of a four game losing streak. Veteran forward Thaddeus Young: "It's still early in the season. But you lose four in a row, you have some things to talk about. You try to nip that in the bud before it gets out of hand." Emerging young center Myles Turner: "You can't have a negative mindset this early in the season, but we definitely have to get the ball rolling. Chicago is a must win for us." There’s no shame in the Pacers recent skid – they were underdogs or pick ‘em priced in every game, all while trying to get their star big man Myles Turner acclimated and back in the rotation following a seven game absence. And, following two sets of back-2-backs resulting in a stretch of six games in nine nights, the Pacers had a much needed off day yesterday, primed to bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Here’s the key quote from Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg, trying to make lemonade out of lemons after the Bulls second half comeback attempt fell short at Toronto on Tuesday: “The big thing with this team is when you have a learning opportunity, you grow. And I think our guys have responded well to that." For a young, rebuilding team like the Bulls, it’s all about ‘learning opportunities’ and ‘growing’. Read between the lines of that quote and you’ll see the reality of the 2017-18 Bulls. Chicago might win a handful of games on hot shooting nights. They might win another handful of games when their opponents look past them. But the Pacers won’t be looking past Chicago tonight and the Bulls – even with Bobby Portis back in the lineup following his suspension – still rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring only 94.2 points per 100 possessions. Expect a comfortable win for the road chalk. Take the Pacers. |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -6 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Push | 0 | 34 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#111) As we saw so clearly again on Monday Night, teams playing with a backup QB behind center tend to struggle against the better defenses that they face. We can expect that once again on Thursday as Drew Stanton and the Cardinals face off against the still elite Seahawks defense on a short week. Drew Stanton got ample playing time behind center for the Cardinals when they lost at home 36-6 in their 2015 season finale against Seattle. Stanton was the starter when the Cards lost 19-3 to the Seahawks in 2014. And those are Drew Stanton’s two previous career outings against Seattle – both downright ugly defeats in which Arizona’s offense didn’t work one iota. So what changes on this short week? Not much for Arizona, from an offensive standpoint. Bruce Arians got a CAREER high 37 carries from Adrian Peterson on Sunday; bad news for an aging back on a short week. In a similar spot last Thursday – off a particularly heavy workload -- LeSean McCoy gained only 25 yards on 12 carries in an ugly loss for the Bills. Bruce Arians, talking about his primary offensive weapon right now: “We’ll see how he feels …. I wish we had a full week. Obviously, we won’t be able to feed him that many times on Thursday night.” Here’s what Stanton had to say about the Cardinals run-heavy gameplan at San Francisco last Sunday: “The game plan was fantastic. I loved it. I loved every single part of it. Each day we got the install, I was getting more and more excited what was going on.” Too bad for Stanton that the Cardinals won’t be able to utilize that same gameplan this week! And there’s truly no comparison between the Seahawks stout defense and the injury riddled Niners defense that AP shredded last week. This is a Seahawks spot, all the way! We’ve seen Seattle dominate on this field repeatedly – three double digit wins and a tie on their last four trips to Arizona. Seattle outgained Washington nearly 2:1 on Sunday, but they missed three field goals and two 2 point conversion tries and committed a franchise record 16 penalties – fixable problems. Coming off that loss, now trailing in the NFC West race, I expect a sense of urgency from the road favorite here. Against the hapless Cardinals, urgency matters in a game the road favorite should win by a TD or more. Take the Seahawks. |
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11-09-17 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 228 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Houston OVER (#705-706) When it comes to pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, this game has all the makings of a true shootout, from start to finish. Despite their early season struggles, the Cavs currently rank #2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Houston ranks #3 in that same category at 108.4 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets offense has been clicking on all cylinders in each of their last three games, hanging 119, 119 and 137 on their last three foes. Head coach Mike D’Antoni, talking about their recent uptick even without Chris Paul on the floor: “The first eight games I don't think we played well. The last three we've played well and now we've just got to keep it going and keep improving.” Defensively, it’s another story entirely. The Cavs rank dead last in the NBA by a wide margin, allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets are better, but they’re certainly no elite defensive squad. Both of these teams spread out the floor and get the ball to open shooters with efficiency. That’s why last year’s two meetings produced 229 and 248 points. From a ‘pace’ standpoint, both of these two squads have been middle of the pack when we look at the full season numbers. But Houston has upped their pace of play in recent games and Cleveland tends to run with anyone who will run with them, as we saw very clearly when Washington went uptempo on them last week; a wild 130-122 shootout that flew Over the total by nearly 30 points. No surprise if we see a similar scoreboard explosion tonight between these two elite offensive squads. Take the Over. |
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11-08-17 | Heat -5.5 v. Suns | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#507) Here’s the key quote, from Suns veteran big man Jared Dudley, after Phoenix lost their third straight game on Monday: "We are going to have a problem with consistency throughout the year….Since Jay took over, we might have had one or one-and-a-half practices. We've had a lot of games, and there is only so much you can go over, so much film you can do. I think he's a done great job so far. I just think that we need to ride this stretch before next week beginning a couple practices and going over certain things that we need to go through on the defensive end." The Suns have gotten a little bit better since Jay Triano took over for Earl Watson following their dismal start, at least from an effort standpoint. But from a defensive standpoint, the Suns remain a bottom five team. It’s the same story on offense, no surprise for a team that suspended, then traded their starting point guard, leaving D-League veteran (but undrafted NBA rookie) Mike James at the point. This is not a strong homecourt either, as clearly evidenced by the Suns home losses to the Nets and Lakers already. Miami is hungry after losing two of three to open up their West Coast swing. Team captain Hassan Whiteside was benched in the second half of their loss at Golden State on Monday; from all indications a positive situation moving forward. Head coach Erik Spoelstra: “This is one game. He understands how important he is to our team to play at a high level, high energy level, so we'll move on to Phoenix and look to have a much better game." The Heat have won by six points or more four times on their last five visits to Phoenix. They beat the Suns by 15 in their last game against them, primed to take care of business with a relatively comfortable road victory tonight. Take the Heat. |
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11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah (#714) Joel Embiid is the moral equivalent of Lebron James when it comes to how his team plays when he’s not on the floor. The Cavs have been nothing short of awful in games that LeBron sits in recent seasons, a ‘bet-against’ team all the way without their superstar on the floor. It’s the exact same story in Philly, without the dramatic pointspread adjustment when Embiid doesn’t play. The results do not lie. Over the last two seasons, the 76ers have played like a 50-win team with Embiid on the floor. When Embiid is on the bench, the Sixers have played like a 12 win team. He sat out one previous game here in the new campaign, at Toronto. The 76ers were nine point underdogs in that game. They were down by 17 after the first quarter in a 32 point, non-competitive defeat, their single worst loss of the season. Embiid is sitting tonight, which speaks volumes about how the coaching staff is viewing this West Coast road trip – they’ve got a winnable game against the Kings up next, followed by a ‘statement’ game against Golden State, then the two LA teams at the Staples Center. This team has won four straight, in anything BUT a ‘max intensity’ spot tonight. Utah throttled Philly in both meetings last year, winning by 17 at home and by 25 on the road. Embiid sat for one of those meetings and was limited to 19 minutes due to foul trouble in the other as the likes of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors dominated the low post for the Jazz. Those matchup edges for Utah in the paint haven’t been altered in the offseason. And the Jazz are in a ‘circle the wagons’ spot off back-2-back losses, including a dismal 137-110 blowout loss at Houston over the weekend. We’ve seen the Jazz bounce back well before – their lone previous two game skid ended with back-2-back 15 point blowout wins. Quin Snyder’s squad is a perfect 4-0 ATS as home chalk this season, an emerging trend worth noting. And from all indications, the Jazz have this game circled after getting bombed by the Rockets. The Jazz hadn’t allowed an opponent to shoot better than 53.5% from the floor against them since last February, but they’ve allowed that in each of their last two games. Wing Joe Ingles: “It’s pretty hard to forget. That [expletive] was embarrassing, really.” Coach Snyder: “You just have to refocus and be solid. We weren’t disciplined. There’s always slippage throughout the season. We had some slippage last night and got our tails kicked by one of the best offensive teams in the league. You learn from it. We don’t ignore or forget about it.” The quote that stands out the most is this one, from center Ekpe Udoh following that loss to Houston: “It was a letdown. Next time we’ll be ready.” I concur! Big Ticket: Take the Jazz. |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 105 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket NFL Game of the YEAR: Take Green Bay (#474) Remember that Green Bay Packers team that we saw before the bye week losing badly at home to New Orleans? Well, you should probably forget that game – it’s a long way in the rear view mirror now, and the Packers team that we saw before the bye is not the one we’re likely to see coming out of the break. But the betting markets aren’t seeing it that way, installing the Lions as road favorites. That, folks, is a downright silly overreaction based pointspread, making the Packers as home dogs on Monday Night the single best bet I’ve seen in the NFL all season, truly worthy of GOY status. Here are my four basic premises. First, the Packers offense, other than Aaron Rodgers, is as healthy as they’ve been all year. Second, Brett Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but he’s more than capable of stepping up here. Third, the Lions aren’t very good and they never win in Green Bay. And fourth, from a situational standpoint, this is a CRUCIAL game for Green Bay in the division; a team that is still expected to get Aaron Rodgers back before the playoffs. Coming off their bye, we can expect the Packers ‘A’ game on Monday Night. The Packers are expected to have all five starting offensive linemen this week. They had one of the five healthy against New Orleans fierce pass rush before the bye. Tackle David Bakhtiari: “Being healthy is key. The bye week was definitely nice — especially with how banged up we were. Us offensive linemen, we were pretty much limping into this bye week. I think that’s big, too.” Head coach Mike McCarthy: “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together.” TE Martellus Bennett will be back on the field as well, key for a young QB like Hundley. Hundley was a projected first rounder coming out of UCLA until a disappointing senior season. Hundley showed well in the preseason, making plays with his feet as well as his arm. Hundley wasn’t good against the Vikings or the Saints in his first two outings, but Green Bay’s offensive line was a big part of that, as were the quality of the two defenses that he faced. Hundley stayed in Green Bay during the bye and got extra one-on-one work in with the coaching staff. Detroit isn’t anywhere near the Vikings or Saints when it comes to their pass rush or their ability to control the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the football. Let me make this very clear – Brett Hundley is a ‘bet-on’ QB this week, coming out of the bye! The Lions are 1-25 SU at Lambeau Field since 1992, a house of horrors for Detroit year after year after year. This is certainly not a venue that bodes well for the Lions as road chalk. Detroit comes in off yet another frustrating defeat; their third straight loss, gaining more than 480 yards of offense against the Steelers without getting the ball into the end zone even once. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered one pointspread, and they’ve yet to cover ANY pointspreads this year as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Packers are 9-2 SU after the bye under Mike McCarthy. Both SU losses came on the road against teams that were undefeated at the time. Each of their last seven wins out of the bye week have been relatively comfortable, by a TD or more – they’re coming back rested and focused, consistently. Green Bay hasn’t quit on their coach or their season; a team that is still very much alive in the playoff race despite Aaron Rodgers injuries and their current two game skid. Expect a strong showing on Monday Night in a game where the betting markets appear to be reading the wrong tea leaves. Extraordinary value here! Big Ticket GOY: Take the Packers. |
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11-05-17 | Celtics -3.5 v. Magic | 104-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#707) The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward five minutes into the season. Boston lost on opening night, then lost the following night at home to Milwaukee. The betting markets immediately devalued Boston; a team with a whole host of new faces just learning to play with one another. That was a mistake! Head coach Brad Stevens has worked his magic. The Celtics haven’t lost since that defeat to the Bucks on the second night of the season. That includes road wins, by margin, at Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Miami and OKC; all of whom are as good or better than the Magic team they’ll face today. It’s surely worth noting that Stevens’ gameplan carved up Frank Vogel’s defense in all three meetings last year, with the Celtics sweeping the series, scoring 117+ in every game. The Celtics enter Sunday with the #1defense in the NBA, allowing fewer than 96 points per 100 possessions. That’s bad news for a Magic team with point guard issues right now. Shelvin Mack started at the point in Orlando’s 22 point home loss to Chicago on Friday. DJ Augustin is hurt. Elfrid Payton could return today off a seven game absence, but I’m not convinced he’ll be able to outplay Kyrie Irving in stellar current form in his first game back off a lingering hamstring injury. Cheap price to lay! Take the Celtics. |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#470) The Chiefs defense is completely broken, but the betting markets haven’t realized it yet. Their season long offensive stats are lying, and the betting markets haven’t noticed that either. They’re on a short week off a very satisfying Monday Night win over a divisional rival at home. And they’re facing an undervalued foe. Put it all together and it’s not hard to make a strong case for fading the overrated Chiefs. Two weeks ago, we saw a terrible Raiders offense that hasn’t worked against anybody since Week 2 pick apart the KC pass defense to the tune of 417 yards and 31 points. Then last week, we saw a Broncos team with no passing game whatsoever and an injury riddled, struggling offensive line run the ball all night against the Chiefs; to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, 177 yards on the ground. This is not a good defense; unable to stop the run OR the pass right now. The season long stats clearly show the Chiefs with the most explosive offense in the NFL – like the Falcons had last year; #1 in yards per play. Those numbers are lying when it comes to projecting forward. RB Kareem Hunt was insane for the first five weeks, notching a 50+ yard rush in every single game! Now that opposing defenses are gameplanning for him, Hunt has gained 21, 87 and 46 yards in his last three contests, with only one run longer than 15 yards. But the impact of that bevy of Hunt early season big plays is still having a HUGE impact on the stat sheet. Both the pointspread and the sharp money follows that stat sheet pretty closely, giving savvy bettors value AGAINST KC, because their current offense is currently more like a middle of the pack unit: 5.6 yards per play over the past three weeks. I understand that Zeke Elliott is an impact running back. I also understand that the Cowboys offensive line is healthy now, and they’ve dominated the last two games. Dak Prescott is on fire, leading the team to 28+ points in each of their last five ballgames and making good decisions with the football week after week – only 2 INT’s during that span. And the trio of Alfred Morris, Rod Smith and Darren McFadden are more than capable of filling the void left by Elliott’s suspension. Should Elliott get reinstated by the courts – which is quite possible as I write this up on Thursday – you’ll be getting the best of the number if you bet it early – NOW! Take the Cowboys |
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11-05-17 | Bengals v. Jaguars -5.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Jacksonville (#458) Yes, the Bengals ‘saved’ their season thanks to a Carlos Dunlap pick six in the fourth quarter against the Colts last week. And, yes, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the smallest home field edge for any team in the NFL in the modern era. But those two bits of information are, quite literally, the only reasonable cases to be made for the road underdog. And, as you’ll see, there are ample reasons to think that the Jags are primed to beat Cinci by a TD or more on Sunday. There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last four games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -10 for the season – their defense hasn’t recovered a fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays. The Jags defense is as dominant as any stop unit in football; a playoff caliber unit. They’ve been blowing up the line of scrimmage all year, sacking QB’s and forcing turnovers in bunches. That’s how the Jags have held four of their first eight opponents to nine points or less; winning those contests by a combined score of 130-23 - all blowouts. I expect the Bengals turnover issues to continue this week. Blake Bortles is not a QB most bettors are comfortable laying points with; understandably so given his repeated struggles in this particular ATS role. But this one spot – coming out of their bye week, playing at home where they’ve yet to win all year, looking for back-2-back wins for the first time all year – is a max intensity spot for the home team. From local reports, the Jags certainly have the feel of a motivated, focused, bet-on team in practice this week; something I’m not sensing from the road underdog with the lame duck head coach. Lay it with Bortles, but expect Leonard Fournette to be the difference maker on offense! Take the Jaguars. |
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11-05-17 | Broncos v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 23-51 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Philadelphia UNDER (#451-452) My clients and I cashed a ‘wrong side’ winner with the Broncos Over on Monday Night. I’m certainly not going to complain about the result, but that game made it very, very clear – Denver is not built to cash Over bets against anybody these days; an Under team just waiting for kickoff. Yes, the Broncos are making the move to Brock Osweiler at QB this week, the same QB they gave up on and wouldn’t pay two years ago. It’s not likely to matter against the Eagles solid stop unit. Osweiler is not a threat to open up the offense with a downfield passing game – expect a very conservative gameplan from the Broncos here. Denver’s offensive line is in shambles; an injury riddled mess. Their receiving corps is banged up and the running game is spotty at best. This offense hasn’t produced more than the 19 they scored last week (thanks to a last minute, garbage time TD) since Week 2, and they’re likely to struggle controlling the line of scrimmage. It’s surely worth noting that Philly has held two of their last three opponents at home to ten points or less. And it’s also worth noting, given Denver’s ‘run first’ gameplan, that Philly has created 31 tackles for loss on their 111 rushing attempts that they’ve faced over the last six games. We can expect a ‘run first’ gameplan for the Eagles as well, as Philly looks to take pressure off Carson Wentz while getting just acquired RB Jay Ajayi into the mix. But the Broncos have held foes to an NFL low 3.0 yards per carry on the season, winning the battle in the trenches on a weekly basis. They’ve yet to allow a single rushing TD all year, and rank #2 in the NFL at the fewest explosive running plays allowed, giving up only 14 rushes of 10+ yards all season. Denver’s ‘No Fly Zone’ defense is no joke either. This is not a game where we can expect the Eagles offense to march up and down the field either. Expect long drives, not quick strike TD’s and expect red zone field goals, not one TD after the next. Take the Under. |
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11-04-17 | BYU +14.5 v. Fresno State | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 82 h 40 m | Show | |
Take BYU (#401) Preseason power polls had BYU in the Top 40 nationally, while Fresno was routinely ranked outside the top 100 teams in college football. If this game had been played in September, BYU would have been the road favorite. Instead, they’re more than two touchdown underdogs. That, folks, is ‘value’ defined, especially since BYU’s problems have not been due to an injury barrage – the roster they had in August hasn’t been decimated. BYU is coming off their best game of the season; giving them a much needed jolt of energy. Fresno is coming off their worst game of the season, a real confidence sapper for a program with no recent history of winning. Fresno has been an ATS powerhouse, suffering their first ATS loss of the entire season last week, a team that’s built up a pretty big bandwagon here in Las Vegas. BYU has been on the other end of the spectrum, opening the season with an 0-8 ATS mark prior to last week, including a stretch of seven consecutive SU losses, six of which came by more than two touchdowns. Again, that’s the definition of ‘value’ – one team’s power rating has moved up almost every week this year, the other team’s rating has moved down almost every week. Not last week, though! And last week’s results are meaningful for both squads. BYU needed a win in the worst way, coming off a humiliating loss as road chalk at East Carolina. Defensive lineman Sione Takitaki: “Definitely getting this win feels really great and I know it does for the coaches and for us players to finally get a win and get going from there. We have Fresno next week so we’re not going to hang our hats on this one.” Head coach Kalani Sitake: “Having optimism isn’t good enough. Just saying things will get better isn’t good enough. You have to combine that with hard work and preparation. When you get those and you do it right, then you have confidence and that shows on the field. Although it wasn’t perfect (Saturday), there’s a lot of things we can still do. It’s a lot easier to make those corrections when you win.” Read between the lines there. It’s clear that the Cougars are in a much better place mentally than they were last week at this time. And while I do expect a better showing from Fresno this week than last, the Bulldogs have a problem in the trenches against BYU’s superior size and strength. The Cougars are truly battle tested, having faced the likes of LSU, Wisconsin, Utah, Mississippi State and Boise. Fresno’s signature win came against San Diego State, non-competitive in either ‘step-up’ non-conference game because they were unable to bang in the trenches with the big boys. Jeff Tedford’s team isn’t built for blowouts against superior physical teams. And it wasn’t a lack of focus last week that Tedford can harp on here. Fresno center Aaron Mitchell: “There wasn’t a lack of focus out there. There wasn’t a lack of focus at practice. We need to be more dialed-in and we need to play better, bottom line.” Even if they’re dialed in this week, extending the margin against the Cougars won’t be easy. Fresno would be thrilled to win this game by a touchdown. So would I! Take BYU. |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 5 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Virginia Tech (#341) Honestly, the pointspread for this game tells you all you need to know. Miami is a fraudulent Top 10 team. Their 7-0 record speaks volumes about who they’ve played, not how good they are. If you’re looking for a ‘signature’ win from the Hurricanes, keep looking. I guess their one point escape against Georgia Tech would qualify – the only winning team (4-3, barely) they’ve beaten since their opener against Toledo from the MAC but make no mistake about it – Mark Richt’s squad is anything BUT battle tested. Miami is also dealing with a handful of key mid-season injuries. Their running game hasn’t worked since Mark Walton got hurt, outrushed 440-198 over the past two weeks against Syracuse and North Carolina. QB Malik Rosier hurt his shoulder last week and is ‘a little sore’ this week, according to Mark Richt. Starting cornerback Dee Delaney is a question mark here as well. But the bigger issue is in the trenches, where Miami has struggled to dominate all season long. Virginia Tech owned both sides of the line of scrimmage in last year’s 37-16 smackdown over the ‘Canes in Blacksburg, winning the rushing battle 251-42. And there’s ample reason to think the Hokies are capable of enjoying that kind of dominance on the ground against that suspect Miami front seven on defense this year as well. My clients and I cashed a winning bet on Virginia Tech as home chalk against North Carolina two weeks ago; a 59-7 beatdown. Here’s a brief excerpt from that write-up: ‘Legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster sounds pretty confident that the backdoor won’t be open here: “We’re not anywhere close, in my opinion, to where we can be and the kids see that and are working that way. That’s still exciting, that we can continue to grow and develop as a unit and as a team.” Over the last three weeks, Virginia Tech has had a bye, and cruised to 59-7 and 24-3 victories. That defense that Bud Foster was touting as ‘not anywhere close’ to their potential just gave up a grand total of ten points in 120 minutes of football, with neither foe reaching 250 yards against them while they forced five turnovers in the process. This is most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ stop unit and QB Josh Jackson continues to impress running Justin Fuente’s offense, even in hostile road environments. The Hokies are relatively fresh, rested and ready for their challenge; battle tested after facing West Virginia away from home as well as truly elite Clemson. Miami is anything BUT fresh, rested and ready, playing down to the final possession in each of their last four games. The ‘Canes last bye week came in early September due to Hurricane Irma. This will be their seventh consecutive game since their last break, and I expect it to show. Dramatically! Big Ticket: Take Virginia Tech. |
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11-04-17 | Texas +7 v. TCU | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#381) I’ve used this same basic write-up to support the Texas Longhorns in both previous tries as an underdog in Big 12 play. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Now with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. They covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. Their defense shut down mighty Oklahoma State the following week, another wire-2-wire ATS cover as an underdog. When you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last 14 tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-3. That’s Straight Up! They’re 14-0 ATS, the only SU losses coming against teams with Top 10 talent: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” TCU QB Kenny Hill is remarkably inconsistent, coming off a truly miserable showing at Iowa State. Hill has put up some big numbers against lesser defenses, but his three worst showings of the season have come against the three best defenses that he’s faced in what’s been a very easy schedule when it comes to opposing defenses. Texas has already held Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor to their lowest scoring output in any game this season. Yes, that’s four of the five Big 12 opponents that they’ve faced. They’ve already seen Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold, battle tested against elite QB’s and strong passing games. I’m not expecting a big game from Kenny Hill here. Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is expected back in the lineup this week, although he could split snaps with Shane Buechele, who was excellent last week against Baylor. Herman on Ehlinger: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” After playing in a litany of ‘right team at the right time’ type ballgames to get off to their 7-1 start, the Horned Frogs are primed to fall back to earth on Saturday. Take Texas |
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11-04-17 | Syracuse +5 v. Florida State | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#331) At this stage of the campaign, there’s nothing to salvage for Florida State. A team that came into the campaign with national championship dreams is now 2-5, off back-2-back losses as favorites against Louisville and Boston College. And head coach Jimbo Fisher isn’t pushing any of the right buttons to get his team to respond. Here’s Fisher’s quote prior to last week’s game at Boston College, following the loss to Louisville: “We're coaching a season. We have to teach the players how to do it. They've done it before. We'll continue to do it the rest of the year. I have total confidence in our coaches and what they can do, and the situations we put them in. We've got to learn to coach three to five plays better, and get them to understand how to play better." Florida State then proceeded to lose 35-3 as favorites to BC. For the sixth time in seven games, their defense forced one turnover or less. For the seventh time in seven games, the offense failed to reach 30 points. Fisher has never been in this spot before, coaching a losing FSU team down the stretch of a dismal campaign. I’m not expecting it to go well. And the Seminoles basic and biggest offensive weaknesses – a frosh QB who doesn’t look good under pressure playing behind an offensive line that has only one senior in the two-deep – isn’t likely to get fixed anytime soon. Florida State has yet to cover the pointspread in a single game this season, but the wiseguys continue to factor their overall talent level into the equation – the markets haven’t appropriately crashed on this team because their personnel grades out so well on paper. Syracuse is at the other end of the spectrum in that regard. Based on pure talent differential, this pointspread is too short. But with FSU playing like a ‘dead’ team and Syracuse showing all kinds of mettle in hostile road environments, basing this pointspread on pure talent differential is not something I’m willing to do. The Orange are the antithesis of Florida State from a value standpoint – their last ATS loss came back in the first week of September, with five spread covers and a push in their last six contests. We’ve seen them go on the road and battle for a full sixty minutes against the likes of LSU and NC State. We saw them beat mighty Clemson in straight up fashion and hang tough at Miami despite committing four turnovers. Fresh, rested and ready off their bye week, the Orange are live to win this one in SU fashion. Take the points, but be sure to take at least a taste of Syracuse on the moneyline. Take Syracuse. |
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11-03-17 | Pacers v. 76ers -5.5 | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#708) The Sixers are ‘bet-on’ all the way right now, while the Pacers are in a prime bet-against spot this evening, setting the stage for what should be a relatively one-sided affair. Since their 0-3 start, the Sixers are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS, the lone loss coming by a single point on a buzzer beater against the mighty Rockets. The Joel Embiid/Ben Simmons combo has been even better than expected – Philly’s got a ‘Big 2’ right now capable of competing with any duo in the league. And the Sixers are loaded with perimeter shooters to take advantage of the Pacers relatively soft D; a better team (at least for now) without having to get injured rookie Markelle Fultz acclimated to the NBA game. Philly just covered as home chalk against Atlanta in their last contest, showing clear signs of being trustworthy in this role. The Pacers have won three straight and covered the spread in five of their last six. But Indiana is in that classic trap spot this evening. They just beat the Cavs in Cleveland as ten point dogs, a HUGE win for this team. They’re best player, Myles Turner, could be back in the lineup tonight following a two week absence. Put those two factors together and this game has all the makings of trouble for Indiana – fat and happy off some big wins & fat and happy that their low post stud has returned. The Pacers currently rank #3 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, shooting 48% from the floor, 39% from three point range while averaging 111.5 points per game. This team is not built to maintain those ridiculously hot early season shooting stats; a regression waiting for the opening tip tonight! This is a mismatch being priced as a competitive contest. Take the 76ers. |
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11-01-17 | Magic v. Grizzlies OVER 203.5 | 101-99 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Orlando – Memphis OVER (#713-714) Orlando head coach Frank Vogel worked some magic in the preseason, and his roster has surely benefitted from a relatively benign offseason, returning most of their talent from last year. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have the #2 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA, averaging 111 points per 100 possessions. Only the Warriors have been better. And Orlando is playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA – only the ultra uptempo Nets and Suns are playing faster, a huge uptick from last year. Memphis, too, has upped their offensive efficiency in early season play, up a notch or two from where they’ve been in each of the last two seasons. And like Orlando, the Grizzlies have upped their pace, playing more than three possessions per game faster than last year. Memphis is coming off their worst offensive game of the season, hitting just 34% from the floor in a loss to Charlotte. Leading scorers Mike Conley and Marc Gasol hit only 8-33 from the floor between them, scoring only 26 points. It’s surely worth noting that they still hung 99 on the Hornets, despite a miserable game from their top two offensive weapons. Head coach David Fisdale: “It just seemed like we couldn't make a layup when we had an open layup. When we had open threes, we couldn't make open threes." I’m expecting a strong offensive bounceback here, setting the stage for what should be a relatively high scoring affair. Take the Over. |
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10-31-17 | Astros +110 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#911) You can break down the stats any way you want to. For wagering purposes for this bettor, Game 6 of the World Series comes down to two basic factors. First, I want my $$ ON Justin Verlander in a potential Series clinching game. Second, I cannot fathom how the Dodgers are going to bounce back here after their disastrous Game 5 defeat, especially considering that one of their biggest strengths coming into the series – their bullpen – is now an area of weakness. The Astros are 10-0 in Verlander’s ten appearances since he was acquired from Detroit. Verlander, like all the pitchers in this series, was negatively affected by the ‘slick’ baseballs in play in his Game 2 start, giving up a pair of home runs. Then again, those were the only two hits that the Dodgers got in six innings against him. This is a statement game for a future Hall of Famer who has proven his mettle many times in spots like this one, and I want my money on him, not against him, given that Astros 10-0 mark in his outings. The Dodgers came into the World Series riding the longest streak of scoreless innings from their bullpen in postseason history. That was then, this is now. Closer Kenley Janson has allowed runs in his last three appearances. Brandon Morrow gave up three extra base hits all year, then gave up three in six pitches in Game 5, finally running out of gas. That’s particularly bad news considering that Rich Hill hasn’t reached 80 pitches in a start since September. Dave Roberts did just about everything right for this season for the Dodgers, but he’s mismanaged his pitching staff in this series, and it’s cost LA. I’ll take this quote from Astros Manager AJ Hinch as a ‘bet-on’ quote for the underdog Astros:“I don’t have a scripted way of getting our 27 outs. We have some strengths that we can feel we can exploit, some matchups that we want…..I’m going to proceed to just trying to win Game 6, and if that means I have to use guys in a unique way, that’s fine. If the game warrants any decision to try to win the game, I think you have to try to win the game that you’re playing that day and not concern yourself with a lot of the unknowns.” Take the Astros. |
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10-31-17 | Thunder v. Bucks +2 | 110-91 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#506) Oklahoma City had two great strengths last year. First, Russell Westbrook had one of the most epic seasons in the history of the NBA, named MVP after averaging a triple double for the entirety of the campaign. And second – the hidden factor – was the strength of the Thunder frontcourt, as OKC finished with the single best rebounding differential in the league, giving them extra possession after extra possession. That was then, this is now. OKC still has the star power, with Westbrook joined by offseason acquisitions Carmelo Anthony and Paul George. But the moves that brought those two scorers into town have had residual effects, most notably on OKC’s ability to dominate the low post in the absence of a trio of departed big men: Enes Kanter, Domantas Sabonis and Taj Gibson. A Thunder team that ranked #1 in rebounding margin last year currently ranks #18, outboarded by nearly two rebounds per game. The Bucks were +12 on the boards in their double digit win at Atlanta on Sunday, despite the absence of role playing center Greg Monroe in the lineup. They’ve lost their two previous ‘statement’ games at home to the Cavs and Celtics; their only two losses of the season, and they appear to be taking tonight’s game particularly seriously, with a four game road trip starting tomorrow. Last year’s Rookie of the Year, Malcolm Brogden:"It shows us where we’re at. It’s a good test for us.” Quite frankly, the Bucks are ready to start passing these tests! Fear the Deer! Take the Bucks |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 42 | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Kansas City OVER (#273-274) The Broncos offense hasn’t worked in recent weeks. They’ve been shut down three times in their last four ballgames, unable to move the football against the Bills, Giants or Chargers defense; held to a combined 26 points in those ballgames. But make no mistake about it – those three defenses are ‘head and shoulders’ ahead of KC these days. The Chiefs rank #30 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They’ve been bad against the run (#28 defense on Football Outsiders ranking) and the pass (#19), the #25 ranked defense overall. Without a healthy Eric Berry, this is nowhere near an elite stop unit. Two weeks ago, Le’Veon Bell ran through this D like swiss cheese, gaining 179 yards on the ground. Last week, that same stop unit gave up 417 passing yards to Derek Carr, without generating a single sack or interception. This is NOT a ‘bet-on’ defense! Meanwhile, Denver is primed for a bounceback offensive showing after last week’s embarrassing shutout loss in LA. Head coach Vance Joseph: “When you watch the tape, the plays are there to make. It's execution. It's individual play from time to time. I'm not down on the playcalling, by no means. There are plays to be made on tape. What we're doing offensively, I feel good about." Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas: “I think we have good plans, we have to protect Trevor [Siemian] better and make more plays, me included. We have chances and we have to make those plays. I'm going to do everything I can to help us figure it out and get it right. The plays are there, I feel that way." Denver’s offense should get a big boost if, as expected, Emmanuel Sanders is expected to suit up tonight following last week’s absence. Denver had the #1 pass defense in the NFL in 2015 and 2016. This year, without coordinator Wade Phillips, that pass defense has declined to a #17 rating from Football Outsiders. KC is expected to get a pair of starting offensive linemen back on the field this week, and they’ve got, legitimately, pro bowl caliber talent at QB, RB, WR and TE. KC hung 30 and 33 on Denver in their two meetings last year, part of a series history that hasn’t seen an Under cash between these two squads since 2014. Take the OVER. |
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10-30-17 | Magic +8 v. Pelicans | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#709) The betting markets are showing a notch or two too much love for the Pelicans tonight, while not showing much love for a Magic squad that is clicking on all cylinders in early season NBA play. The advanced metric stats show Orlando’s edge fairly dramatically. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have the #2 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA, averaging 111 points per 100 possessions, running Frank Vogel’s offense quite efficiently. Only the Warriors have been better; New Orleans trails in the stat rankings. It’s a similar story on defense, where the Magic rank #12, allowing 101.1 points per 100 possessions. The Pelicans have picked up right where they left off last year, ranked #19 on D while allowing more than 105 points per 100 possessions. The stats AND the standings both show Orlando as a team that isn’t getting the betting market respect that they deserve just yet. The markets have knee-jerked towards the Pelicans in early betting action on Monday, with Orlando playing on the second night of back-2-backs, while New Orleans is rested. But Orlando goes ten deep these days, not a team with a limited rotation. We saw them in a road back-2-back once already this season, losing at Brooklyn in the first game, but bouncing back with a 21 point win at Cleveland on the second night. Meanwhile, New Orleans has been a money burner as home chalk throughout the Alvin Gentry era; not a trustworthy team to lay an inflated price with tonight. Take the Magic. |
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10-29-17 | Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 | 124-111 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#510) I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. Brooklyn has won every previous home game this season in SU fashion, a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on this floor. They’re coming off a complete no-show at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks on Friday Night, a prime bounceback spot. Nets forward DeMarre Carroll, talking about the team’s lack of focus on Friday: “We came out the gate and they were the more aggressive team. Credit to them. They basically just kicked our butts. They threw it up at the goal and just knocked us out of the way and went and got it." Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson talking about his team letting down after a big upset win over Cleveland: “We have to play better and we have to handle success a little better. That is the next step for this team. We have good leaders. We will bounce back." Denver has a grand total of one pointspread cover in five games so far, an overvalued commodity in early season play. The Nuggets youthful point guards Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay are not a ‘let’s lay points with them on the highway’ duo. The Nuggets, too, cannot be trusted coming off a win, and let’s not forget that Denver lost SU right here at the Barclays Center as 4.5 point road favorites last year as well. Take the Nets. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Redskins | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#269) To call the Redskins an injury riddled mess right now would not be an overstatement. How bad is the injury situation in Washington on a short week off their home loss to Philly on Monday Night Football? Bad enough that Jay Gruden CANCELLED PRACTICE on Wednesday, opting for a walk-through instead. There aren’t many NFL coaches willing to cancel a Wednesday practice for any reason, but with 17 contributors unable to suit up, it was the only decision that Gruden could make. The Redskins biggest injury issues are on the offensive line. The likes of Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, Spencer Long, Morgan Moses and Ty Nsekhe were unable to suit up for practice on Thursday either. Gruden’s quote doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor: ““It has its challenges, that’s for sure. You walk out of the tunnel with Long, Nsekhe, Scherff, Williams and Moses and those guys aren’t practicing, it’s a little bit different when you go in the huddle. Heading into the game against the Redskins, Washington’s options on the offensive line are very limited. Their only healthy tackles for Thursday’s practice session were TJ Clemmings, a guy they picked up off the waiver wire after preseason, and Andreas Knappe, who was signed to the practice squad just last week. They also have undrafted rookie Tyler Catalina and Tony Bergstrom, signed on Wednesday after getting released by the Ravens on the roster, a truly uninspiring quartet. The Redskins defense is just as injury riddled as their offense. Five defensive backs are hurt, including both starting cornerbacks. Standout rookie pass rusher Jonathan Allen just went on IR, as did defensive leader LB Mason Foster. The Redskins just allowed 34 points in the final three quarters against Philly on Monday Night and there’s no reason to think it’ll be any easier for that stop unit this week, because the elite Cowboys offensive line is getting healthier! The Cowboys offensive line had their best game of the season coming out of their bye at San Francisco last week, buoyed by pro bowler Tyron Smith, as healthy as he’s been all season. No surprise, then, that Zeke Elliott enjoyed a huge afternoon, while Dak Prescott didn’t take a sack. If the weather is rainy, as expected, the Cowboys dominance in the trenches should only grow. And, of course, the Cowboys are primed to exploit the Redskins weaknesses up front with DeMarcus Lawrence and David Irving combining for 12.5 sacks already. Let’s not forget the fact that the Cowboys are true road warriors: 8-2 SU in their last ten meaningful road games. Dallas is the better of these two teams right now, and I expect them to show it! Take the Cowboys |
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10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints -9 | 12-20 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 3 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#254) Since their 0-2 SU and ATS start to the campaign, the Saints have come on like a freight train, notching four consecutive wins and covers. Last week’s win at Green Bay was particularly impressive, because they got the two score victory despite an awful, turnover plagued start on the road on grass in rainy conditions – not ideal Saints weather. The key to their resurgence has been a defense making plays all over the field; the antithesis of what we’ve seen from the Saints defensively in any recent season. A Saints secondary that has flat out lacked talent in recent seasons has been buoyed by first round draft choice CB Marshon Lattimore, who is playing lockdown man coverage on a weekly basis. Safety Kenny Vaccaro, another former first rounder, has been nothing short of stellar since returning to health. The pass rush has been there too, led by Cameron Jordan and Alex Okafor. And the results clearly show the ‘night and day’ improvement. Over the past five weeks, the Saints have held opposing QB’s to a 53.6 QB rating, lowest in the NFL. They rank among the top four defenses in yards allowed, points allowed and forced turnover during that span. New Orleans still has full season stats that reflect their ugly first two games, but those games are a long, long way in the rear view mirror now. That’s bad news for a Bears offense that gained all of five first downs last week, managing just a single field goal for their 60 minutes of playing time. Mitch Trubisky has completed a grand total of 24 passes for 348 yards in his first three games as an NFL starter, but the Bears have been in every game because they haven’t been facing a litany of explosive offenses, to put it mildly. That changes this week in New Orleans, where the Saints have averaged scoring 36 points per game; not an offense that Chicago can expect to shut down. If the Bears are going to hang around in this contest, they’re going to have to put up points in bunches. And that’s just not something Chicago is capable of doing these days. Note the two games – both road contests, like this one – where the Bears fell behind early and were forced to rely on a passing game that lacks downfield receivers. They lost by 3 TD’s each time, at Tampa and at Green Bay; completely unable to rally back from a deficit. That doesn’t change this week in a blowout spot for the home team. Take the Saints. |
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10-29-17 | Panthers +2 v. Bucs | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#257) This is a HUGE game for both squads. Tampa is 2-4, losers of three straight and on the verge of a complete collapse. Carolina is sitting at 4-3, but they’re coming off ugly back-2-back losses; sitting on the brink themselves. But only one of these two teams is primed to step up with a winning effort this week – the road underdog. Tampa’s problems aren’t getting fixed anytime soon. There’s clear dissention in the locker room, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Plain and simple – this injury riddled unit isn’t buying what defensive coordinator Mike Smith is selling, as clearly evidenced by these quotes: Offseason free agent acquisition TJ Ward, unhappy with the defensive rotations following their loss to Buffalo last week: “I did not come here to rotate. I did not come here to be a part-time player. I came here to make this defense better." Pro bowl defensive linemen Gerald McCoy, talking about the scheme: “I just play what they call. I don't have a say so in what we run, I just kind of go with it. I'm a team guy, so I do what they ask me to do. Do I feel like I could've been more effective in a different way? Yes. But I'm a team guy. It's not about Gerald. Whatever coach calls is what I'm going to run.” Smith’s issues calling plays for the defense are likely to continue to be a problem this week. For the season, the Bucs have only four interceptions, while allowing a whopping 295 yards per game through the air. They rank dead last in the NFL in both sacks and sack percentage. And they’re dealing with cluster injuries at cornerback. One starter, Robert McClain, is in concussion protocol, unlikely to suit up. The other starter, Brett Grimes, missed last week with a shoulder injury and hasn’t practiced this week either. McClain has played 215 snaps over the last four games. The only two experienced backups on the roster have combined for five snaps during that same span. The season ending injury to DE Noah Spence isn’t likely to help their struggling pass rush. No pass rush and an injury riddled secondary is a very hard thing for any NFL team to overcome, let alone a team that is clearly beset with chemistry issues between the coaching staff and the players. In short, the Bucs are a clear ‘bet-against’ team moving forward, especially with QB Jameis Winston unable to practice all week with a bum shoulder. I do not expect this defense to get any better in the short term, a stop unit ranked among the bottom five in the NFL in key metrics like yards per play allowed and opposing QB rating allowed. Don’t be fooled by Cam Newton’s struggles interacting with the media. That does not make Cam Newton a ‘bet-against’ QB by any stretch of the imagination. He’s still at 64% completions for the season – best of his career – while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt – second only to his Super Bowl season over the last five years. The problem has been turnovers, more than any other factor; a team that allowed a pair of 75+ yard defensive scores last week, now sitting at -9 for the season – only the Browns are worse. Facing a Bucs defense that doesn’t force turnovers is exactly what Cam Newton and this offense need. And, no, this locker room isn’t turning on itself like the one in Tampa seems to be, despite their level of frustration. WR Kelvin Benjamin: “I think everybody is frustrated. The whole offense was frustrated because the defense was giving us 3-and-outs and we didn’t put points up.” Offensive coordinator Mike Shula, trying to explain why they’ve struggled over the last two weeks after putting up 60 points in SU road wins at Detroit and New England in weeks 4 & 5. “We’re not as far off as we think. It feels like we are, and we all feel terrible.” The Panthers should have both LB Luke Kuechly and safety Kurt Coleman back in the lineup this week, two huge adds for a stop unit that gave up a grand total of five first downs and one field goal last Sunday. They’ve got a comparable offense, the MUCH better defense, the better locker room situation and the better chance at turning things around and salvaging their season. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take Carolina. |
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10-28-17 | 76ers -1.5 v. Mavs | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#709) Abbreviated write-up on a very busy college football Saturday. The Sixers are ‘bet-on’ all the way right now, while Dallas is in a tough spot tonight, setting the stage for what should be a relatively easy victory for the road favorite. Since their 0-3 start, the Sixers won SU as road underdogs at Detroit and came within an Eric Gordon buzzer beater of knocking off mighty Houston. Joel Embiid is in tonight, and Ben Simmons is a triple double threat every time he takes the floor. The Sixers are loaded with perimeter shooters to take advantage of the Mavericks soft D , ranked #28 in defensive efficiency. The Sixers are catching Dallas in a tough situation, playing their third game in four nights after back-2-back grueling, physical contests against the Grizzlies. Dallas opened 2-13 SU last year and are showing every indication that they’ll be lottery bound again this season. And this is not a particularly strong homecourt, with the Mavs losing three times in their first four home games, twice as favorites against lowly Sacramento and Atlanta. Philly beat this team 116-74 in their most recent meeting, and we can expect another comfortable win for the Sixers tonight. Take the 76ers. |
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10-28-17 | Texas Tech +20 v. Oklahoma | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Texas Tech (#201) Oklahoma’s last pointspread cover came back in September, against Tulane. The only two games that the Sooners have won by more than two scores this year came against UTEP and Tulane, teams that couldn’t compete physically with Lincoln Riley’s squad in the trenches. Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in big 12 conference play, in large part because their defense can’t stop anybody. Three of the Sooners four Big 12 foes have hung 35+ against them; a defense picking up right where they left off last year – their worst defense of the decade. Texas Tech hung 59 points on Oklahoma last year, the third hotly contested, competitive game between these two schools in the last four seasons. Texas Tech had 42 first downs and 854 yards of offense in that contest. And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Red Raiders won’t be capable of trading touchdowns with the Sooners once again this year. Oklahoma couldn’t get stops against Baylor. Iowa State was held to seven points at home against Texas, but they hung 38 on the road in Norman. Kansas State’s backup QB led them to five TD’s against the Sooners last week. Facing a Red Raiders offense that has put up 127 points in their three previous road games, we can expect the Sooners stop unit to struggle once again on Saturday. Texas Tech hasn’t lost a game by 20 points all year. They traded points with Oklahoma State, losing by only seven against the Cowboys potent offense. They traded points with West Virginia, hanging 35 on the Mountaineers. They traded points with Arizona State, winning 52-45, a victory that looks even better now considering the Sun Devils stellar defensive showings over the last two weeks. With a 9-3 ATS mark in Kliff Kingsbury’s last dozen tries as a road underdog, the Red Raiders sure look like ‘live’ dogs again this week! Take Texas Tech. |
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10-28-17 | TCU -6.5 v. Iowa State | 7-14 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 21 m | Show | |
Take TCU (#193) When Gary Patterson has a good team – like he does this year – the Horned Frogs tend to be a strong ‘bet-on’ team when they hit the highway. TCU has dominated all three road games so far this season, winning 28-7 at Arkansas, 44-31 at Oklahoma State and 26-6 at Kansas State, all easy wins and covers. There’s been a pretty big class difference between these two teams in recent seasons. Last year, the Horned Frogs were -24.5 in a 41-20 win over the Cyclones. The year before that, it was -21 and a 45-21 final score. In 2014, it was TCU -35, and a 55-3 win for the favorite. The betting markets are pricing in a substantial improvement for Iowa State here in 2017. I’m not convinced that it’s warranted. Iowa State has gone 3-9, 2-10, 3-9 and 3-9 SU since 2012. This year, they’re 5-2, including an outright upset as 31 point underdogs at Oklahoma. Of course, the toughest part of their schedule is still to come, and Iowa State lost by double digits while scoring only seven points in their last try as a home dog against Texas. And former walk-on Kyle Kempt is no elite starter at QB, taking a real step up in class against this defense! TCU ranks #1 in the nation in total defense, best in the Big 12. Senior QB Kenny Hill has shown his maturity repeatedly in hostile environments, with a 15-3 TD – INT ratio and a 70% completion rate. And the Horned Frogs are balanced, running for 170+ yards six times in seven games. There’s a legitimate class difference here that is not reflected in this pointspread; a game that the Horned Frogs are primed to win by a TD or more. Take TCU. |
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10-28-17 | NC State v. Notre Dame UNDER 59 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame – NC State UNDER (#179-180) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Notre Dame last week in their blowout win over USC. The premise was simple. USC was an injury riddled mess on the defensive line. Notre Dame’s biggest strength is their offensive line. No surprise, then, that Notre Dame rushed for more than 300 yards for the third consecutive week in a 49-14 win over the Trojans. That was then; this is now. Instead of an injury depleted Trojans defensive front, this time around, Notre Dame must face NC State’s stout unit. After facing Miami-Ohio and North Carolina the previous two weeks, this is a HUGE step up in class for the Irish offensive line. In their only two previous games against stout defensive fronts – Michigan State and Georgia – the Irish did NOT dominate the line of scrimmage and did NOT run the football effectively throughout. QB Brandon Wimbush has been battling injuries all year, with only 77 completions and a 51.3 completion percentage. I do not trust Wimbush to move the Irish offense in a game where their running game doesn’t control the flow. And Notre Dame’s running game isn’t likely to control the flow here against NC State’s stout defensive front. The Wolfpack have held every opponent to 116 rushing yards or less, and every opponent to 25 points or less, even Louisville. They currently rank #6 in the country against the run. How? Simple! Their 4-2-5 defense has a front six that consists entirely of senior starters, a veteran unit that is built to stop powerful OL’s. But Wolfpack QB Ryan Finley rather pedestrian and his receiving corps lacks playmakers. Expect BOTH teams to struggle to control the line of scrimmage on offense, leading to a relatively low scoring affair. Take the Under. |
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10-28-17 | Virginia +3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Virginia (#137) Virginia played their worst game of the season last Saturday, blown out 41-10 at home as TD favorites against Boston College. Pitt played their best game of the season last Saturday, taking advantage of a tired, depleted Duke team that hasn’t had a bye week yet, winning outright on the road as nine point underdogs. I’m expecting both teams to revert back to the mean this week. The quotes out of the Virginia locker room this week were fully focused on the task at hand, not a team that is primed to suffer a hangover following their first loss since early September. The back half of their schedule is brutal: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech, teams that are a combined 21-6. The Cavs are one win shy of bowl eligibility and they expect to get it here. Senior LB Micah Kiser: “We’ve been playing well, we had one bad game and that doesn’t define the season. There’s no question we can get back…... We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high. But we want to play with confidence. You win some, you lose some. We lost this one. We got smacked in the mouth. There’s no way around it. (But) there’s no talk about the past. There’s no problem.” Cavs junior RB Jordan Ellis: “This game will really humble you. I thought we were better because we were 5-1. This brings us back down a little bit. This gives us a chance to correct the mistakes we have and go into next week with a chip on our shoulders because we kind of got embarrassed at home.” It’s not like the Cavs can’t win on the highway. We saw them go to Boise and dominate the Broncos on the blue turf; a 42-23 smackdown as 14 point underdogs and won SU by six on the highway in their only other try, at North Carolina. Senior QB Kurt Benkart has a 15-4 TD – INT ratio. Pitt’s star senior cornerback and team captain, Avonte Maddox is hurt, and his likely replacement, Phillipie Motley isn’t 100% after dealing with his own injury issues, setting up Benkart for a big day. Let’s not forget how badly this defense got torched at home when they faced Oklahoma State’s strong passing game. It wasn’t much better against NC State, another double digit home loss. And it’s certainly not like Pitt is primed to trade points with opponents like they did last year. Senior starter Max Browne is out for the year, and backup Ben Dinucci has been underwhelming to say the least, just 8-18 at Duke last Saturday. Pat Narduzzi is notably short on offensive playmakers this year, and Pitt is not the better of these two teams. Big Ticket: Take Virginia |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers +105 v. Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 58 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#905) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting Yu Darvish in the first round of the playoffs, a 3-1 LA win at Arizona. My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting Darvish in the NLCS as well, LA’s 6-1 at Wrigley Field in Chicago. And I have absolutely no hesitation supporting Darvish at a plus price in Game 3 of the World Series at Houston. Yu Darvish has essentially been unhittable down the stretch. In his last five starts, Darvish has allowed a grand total of two runs over 30.2 innings of work, striking out 35 batters while allowing only 17 hits and two walks. Darvish has proven his mettle in hostile road environments. He’s proven his mettle in big games. And Darvish has owned this Astros lineup. He threw seven innings of one hit ball right here at Minute Maid Park back in June. And, over a significant 163 at-bat sample size, current Astros have hit just .190 against Darvish, with a .537 OPS. LA’s bullpen behind him finally had an off night on Wednesday, but it’s been an elite pen all year and I’m not anticipating any residual effects. The Astros have lost two of Lance McCullers three postseason starts, and he lasted only four innings in the closeout game against the Yankees. Houston’s bullpen behind McCullers hasn’t been as effective as the Dodgers pen, and the Astros were moneylosers at home during the regular season. The first ever World Series Game in Houston is not primed to be a winning one for the home favorite. Take the Dodgers. |
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10-26-17 | Clippers v. Blazers -2.5 | 104-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#708) The Blazers are a ‘bet-on’ team right now, but the betting markets haven’t caught up with their hot start. Remember, the Blazers were as hot as any team in the NBA down the stretch last year, rallying to snatch the #8 seed in the West after acquiring Jusuf Nurkic from Denver at the trading deadline. They’ve picked up right where they left off as an undervalued commodity, with Nurkic and fellow defensive minded frontcourt mate Al Farouq Aminu controlling the paint. Make no mistake about it -- Portland dominating the rebounding battle on a nightly basis; the #1 team in the NBA in rebounding margin AND in percentage of available rebounds that they’ve been able to snare. The Clippers biggest strength is their ability to dominate the glass, winning the rebounding battle in each of their first three ballgames. That’s not likely to happen tonight, certainly not by any sort of a margin. And the injury bug has really sapped whatever limited depth the Clippers had coming into the campaign. Doc Rivers bench is paper thin right now, bad news against arguably the deepest Blazers team of my lifetime. Portland point guard Damian Lillard: "We have so many guys we can count on. Each game we've played, guys have come in and gotten the job done. They're helping us produce wins. When you're doing that over a period of time, you see you're a deeper team.” Look for the Clippers first game outside the Staples Center to be a SU and ATS defeat. Take the Blazers. |
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10-26-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -7 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Northern Illinois (#108) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet, because the concept here is very simple. Eastern Michigan has hung tough with everybody this year, with each of their last six games decided by a touchdown or less. But we cannot expect the Eagles ‘A’ game tonight. They’ve lost each of those last five close games, including a pair of them in overtime. Last week’s OT loss to arch rival Western Michigan was the worst of the bunch; the type of defeat that won’t make it easy for Eastern Michigan to get going tonight. Travelling, on short rest, coming off that OT loss, this is one spot where the Eagles are primed for a sluggish showing. That’s not the case for Northern Illinois! Unlike Eastern Michigan, the Huskies are physically fresh, coming off an easy 48-17 blowout at Bowling Green. The Huskies have a strong homefield for the MAC, winning each of their last two home games by 3 TD’s or more. With frosh QB Marcus Childers settling into the starters role -- 7 TD’s to 1 INT over the last three weeks – and ‘stretch the field’ receiver Chad Beebe back on the field (6 catches for 124 yards last week), we can expect the Huskies to win by margin against the exhausted, demoralized Eagles. Take Northern Illinois. |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 197 | 94-103 | Push | 0 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Memphis – Dallas OVER (#513-514) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner with the Mavs Over the total in their home debut against Atlanta last week. The game flew Over the total by 30 points, and it wasn’t just about good shooting – the tempo was there throughout. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “Expect a very different pace of play from the previously stodgy Dallas Mavericks this year. From Day 1, Dallas is looking to take advantage of the quickness and speed of rookie point guard Dennis Smith. “Owner Marc Cuban, talking about his newest potential star: “Dennis is fast. I mean he’s easily the fastest guy on the team and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the fastest end line to end line in the NBA…..watching him get a rebound and go coast-to-coast, fans are going to be fired up.” “Smith: "In this league, I've got to attack first and then make my reads from there. It's tough for defenders to stay in front of me. If I can beat my man and make the defense collapse, I'm smart enough to make the right read out of that." “Head coach Rick Carlisle: “We want to push it every single time, even if there's a score. The quicker you get it over half-court, the greater chance you have to make an early vertical attack on the basket.” In their last two games, the Mavs faced the Rockets and Warriors, two teams that no sane head coach would try to go uptempo against. Rick Carlisle didn’t, which leaves us with a total that’s too low here as the Mavs face off against a team they’ll have no hesitation speeding up against. Memphis, like Dallas, has been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA for years; not a team that’s likely to garner wiseguy support for Overs based on their pace ratings. But the Grizzlies haven’t been shy about filling up the hoop in early season play, hanging 98+ in all three contests. The injury to JaMychal Green is a difference maker for this squad when it comes to totals; a defensive stopper without an offensive game not on the floor. Green’s absence doesn’t affect the market, but without him, the ‘good offense, bad defense’ duo of Jarell Martin and Chandler Parsons get extra playing time. And it’s surely worth noting how hard the Grizz have been working to get easy buckets, really pushing the pace with their opportunities in transition. Memphis, too, is coming off games against the Rockets and Warriors in their last two outings, both of which stayed Under the total. Against Dallas, I’m not expecting that same level of defensive intensity, and the total is more than 15 points lower……Take the OVER. |
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10-25-17 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Take LA Dodgers – Houston OVER (#903-904) Last night’s game was a 3-1 pitcher’s duel, yet tonight’s game reeks of an Over! What’s the difference between the two spots? Plenty! I have the utmost of respect for Rich Hill and Justin Verlander, both of whom turned their respective careers around in their mid-30’s. But Rich Hill ain’t Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander ain’t Dallas Keuchel. Tonight, we’re not talking about a pair of lineups that are out of rhythm following multiple days off like we were yesterday. Instead, we’ve got the two of the most potent lineups in MLB in sync, facing pitching that’s a notch or two down compared to Game 1. We’ve still got gametime temperatures in the high 90’s, ideal hitters conditions. We’ve still got a very low total. Both teams used their key bullpen arms last night and the Astros bullpen, in particular, has shown vulnerability here in the postseason. And home plate umpire Paul Nauert isn’t known for a particularly wide strike zone, favoring a pair of patient lineups like these two are. In Nauert’s last game behind home plate for a Dodger game, LA scored 9 runs and went Over the total by themselves. In Nauert’s last game calling balls and strikes in an Astros game, Houston scored 11 runs and went Over the total by themselves. No shock here if once again, tonight, the winning team approaches or exceeds the total all by themselves. Take the Over. |
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