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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech OVER 46.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Thursday Night football from Lane Stadium is always a good time. So was last year's game Syracuse. It finished with 77 points even though the total was only 45. VT has scored 30 and 38 its last 2 home games. Defenses aren't playing as well as you might think. Hokies have given up 21 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Syracuse has permitted 40 or more in back-to-back games and has conceded 30 or more in 3 straight. This one's going over the total! *ACC TOY |
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10-24-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Lots of hitting in yesterday's winner-take-all event as last night's Game 7 ended with 15 runs. This one will be much lower-scoring. Most recent Game 7's are. These teams combined for 6 runs yesterday. Both these starters were extremely strong when they opposed each other in Game 2. The final score was 2-1. That was by far the lowest-scoring game of the series. Pfaadt went 5.2 shutout innings, Suarez went 5.1 shutout innings. This one also stays under. *NLCS TOW |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 52 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Both teams are consistently scoring. NMSU scored 34, 27 and 28 last three games. LA Tech has scored 24, 28 and 23 its last three games. At home, the Bulldogs are averaging 34.5 points but also giving up 28.3. Off their bye last year, the Bulldogs next game finished with 72 points. The O/U line for that game was 52.5. This one will also result in a shootout. Go with the Over. *CUSA TOW |
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10-22-23 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
A previously high-scoring series will feature great pitching tonight. Eovaldi is a great competitor. He's 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in the postseason. Twenty-four strikeouts in 19.2 innings. Valdez may not have been brilliant in this series but he's still only a couple of months removed from throwing a no-hitter. With a chance to punch a ticket to the World Series The bullpens got a day to rest yesterday and it will be all hands on deck. Look for the bats to stay quiet and the final score to stay Under. *ALCS TOY |
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10-22-23 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 44.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This total could easily be lower. The Arizona offense has come down to earth, a lack of talent becoming evident.The Cardinals have scored 16, 20 and 9 points in their last three games. Seattle managed only 13 last week. The last two Seahawk games have both finished with 30 or less. When Arizona played here last season, the score was 19-9. The year before, it was 23-13. The Cardinals will again have trouble scoring and that will lead to this final score staying below the total. *NFC West TOY |
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10-22-23 | West Ham United v. Aston Villa UNDER 3 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
Don't expect many goals in today's early match between West Ham and Aston Villa. The last meeting had a final score of 1-1. The one before that finished with a score of 1-0. Eight of the past 10 meetings produced 3 or fewer goals, six of those finishing with less than 3. Villa has only conceded three goals in its last four matches. AV has allowed one goal or less in six of its last seven matches. WH has allowed less than 2 goals in seven of its past 10 matches. Last match here was scoreless into the 2nd half and finished 1-0. This one also goes Under. *EPL TOW |
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10-21-23 | UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 53.5 | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Stanford fans won't soon forget last week's stunning comeback. That was against a porous Colorado defense. Now the Cardinal will be facing one of the toughest defenses in the country. Scoring will be extremely difficult, let alone coming back. Stanford only scored 13 against UCLA last year and may not even get that many in this one. The Bruins' defense is that good. Remember, in the game before Colorado, the Cardinal scored only 6 points. Off their previous loss, the Bruins' next game stayed below the total by double-digits. This one will also stay under! *Pac 12 TOY |
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10-21-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
Yesterday's game was a wild one. Today's will also be exciting but only if you appreciate top level pitching. What more can you say about Wheeler? In three playoff starts, he's got a 0.63 WHIP. That goes with a 2-0 record and 2.37 ERA, with 26 strikeouts in 19 innings. All three of Gallen's postseason starts have been on the road. He's been much better here at home all season. In 16 starts here, he's 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA. Wheeler should continue his strong pitching and Gallen will be better in his home park. Go with the Under. *Total Dominator |
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10-21-23 | Western Michigan v. Ohio OVER 52 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Western Michigan has played seven games. Five of seven went over the total. All seven finished with greater than 50 points. The Broncos have scored 21, 28, 42 and 31 points their last four. But they've given up more than 40 in three of four past six. Ohio has scored 38 or more in 2 of its last 3. Six of seven meetings have finished with 52 or more and the last game here finished with 71. This one goes Over. *Run and Shoot |
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10-20-23 | SMU v. Temple OVER 54 | Top | 55-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
The Mustangs are going to score early and often. They scored 69 in a game earlier. The Mustangs scored 31 and 34 their last two games. Now they get to go up against the Owls, who have allowed more than 40 points in four straight games. The Owls did score 34 in their last game here. Even if down, they won't just quit trying to score. The Mustangs' last five games against Temple saw them score: 59, 60, 45, 45 and 47! Those are just SMU scores, not combined. Every one of those games got to at least 65. All five went Over the total. This one also will. *AAC TOW |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
Saints have been an under cash machine this season. As a result, we've got a really low total for Thursday's game against Jacksonville. It's important to understand that Jaguar games average 44 points. The Jax offense has gotten better and better. They scored 31 in the opener but then dropped all the way to 9 in their next game. After that they went from 9 to 17 to 23 to 25 to 37. It's fair to say that they're clicking on all cylinders. The Saints didn't score many last game but they did have well over 400 yards of offense. Also, they scored 34 in their previous game. They'll be able to move the ball and score on TNF. The Jaguars have played here twice in the past. Both those games finished with 65 points. This one might not produce that number of points but it'll produce more than enough to get us over this low total. *Thursday Night Total Of The Year |
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10-19-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
These guys don't have the big established names like Verlander or Scherzer. Don't discount either Urquidy or Heaney though. Urquidy has permitted only 2 runs his last 2 starts combined. Games had final scores of 3-2 and 2-1. Heaney doesn't go deep but he keeps the ball in the park (0 HRs last four starts) and he doesn't allow many runs. Last two starts: 1 combined run. Last 10 starts: 14 combined earned runs, never more than 3. Three of Heaney's last four starts have finished with less than 8 runs. Go Under! *Totals club |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State v. UTEP OVER 47.5 | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Both teams effectively moved the ball and scored points in their last game. Both will do so again tonight. NMSU scored 27 last game. All the scoring came in the first half. The Aggies probably could have scored more if they didn't take their foot off the gas. They still put up 458 total yards. They were also well above the 400-yard mark in their previous game. They scored 34 against FIU in that one. The Miners also scored 27 last game. They had 441 yards of offense. It marked the second time in three games that UTEP scored at least 27 points. Look for both offenses to enjoy success and the final score to go over the total. *Total Takedown |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The Phillies are very strong at home in the playoffs. They jumped on Arizona early yesterday and won 5-3. That game had a lower total than this one and the final score finished over. This one will be lower-scoring and likely won't feature early runs the same way as yesterday. Take a look at these pitching numbers. Nola is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in the current postseason. Kelly is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in the postseason. Kelly now has a 2.20 ERA his past five. Nola? He's 5-0 with a 1.40 ERA. Neither starter has allowed a home run in either of his last two starts. This game stays under! *NLCS TOY |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers UNDER 51 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
A total in the 50's gives us a lot of room to stay under and that's the way I'm going this Monday. These teams are both known more for their offenses but there is also plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers kept the Raiders to 17 points last game but only scored 24. Off a bad loss to SF, Dallas will want to improve on defense. Off only previous loss, the Cowboys gave up just 3 points in their next game. These teams last meet in 2021. The total was 55 but they finished with 37. The previous three meetings before that one had scores of 34, 51 and 37. That's an average of 39.75 for the past four meetings. This one won't reach 50. *MNF TOM |
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10-15-23 | Giants v. Bills OVER 43.5 | Top | 9-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Low number. Much lower thanks to the Jones injury. Forget Jones for a minute, the Bills can score this many themselves. Don't believe me? Ask the Dolphins. The Bills put up 48 points against them. Before that, they scored 37 and 38 against the Commanders and Raiders. The Giants have allowed 24 or more in seven straight games, 30 or more in two of their last three. Heck, they're allowing an average of more than 30 per game. As mentioned, Daniel Jones is out. But is that really a bad thing? The Giants were 1-4 with Jones behind center. Tyrod Taylor is a capable veteran. Having started 43 games for the Bills, he'll have a chip on his shoulder when playing his former team. At the least, he'll help to light a spark. Buffalo will score big and the Giants will do "enough." This game goes Over! *NFL TOM |
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10-15-23 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 42.5 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
Some might say that all signs point to an under. Baltimore is off 3 straight unders. Tennessee is, too. Games across the pond are often different though. If you haven't noticed, these games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the only stadium designed specially for NFL games outside of North America, a tendency to be quite high-scoring. Last week's game here produced 45 points. The opposite has been the case in the games at Wembley Stadium. The last four Wembley games have all finished with 38 or less. The six games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium all finished with 43 or more. Both offenses are filled with talent and capable of more than they've shown. This will be on display, the final score going Over. *AFC TOW |
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10-14-23 | Canucks v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
A very big O/U line. These teams faced each other already. Playing in their own building, the Canucks crushed the Oilers by an 8-1 score. Both Edmonton goalies struggled. We'll see a better defensive and goaltending effort from the Oilers on Saturday. Only one of Vancouver's past five visits here has produced more than 7 goals. Three of those five games finished with less than six. The under is 3-1-1 in those games and 6-2-1 in nine meetings overall. Also, the under is 5-1 the past six times that Edmonton allowed five or more goals in its previous game. Go with the Under! *NHL TOM |
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10-14-23 | Auburn v. LSU UNDER 60.5 | Top | 18-48 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 58 m | Show |
LSU has been money for the over all season. That comes to an end Saturday. With all the LSU games going over, the totals have been going up and up. Games between these SEC rivals rarely reach the 60 point mark though. The past seven Auburn versus LSU games have had the following scores: 38, 43, 59, 43, 43, 50 and 31. Only one of the past 10 meetings had a total which was as high as this one. Auburn gave up 27 against Georgia and 27 at Texas A&M. Before that Auburn permitted 14 or fewer points in each of its first three games. Holding Georgia to 27 points and 19 first downs was pretty good when considering that the Bulldogs scored 49 in the game before Auburn and 51 in the one after. If Auburn can slow down Georgia, it can slow down LSU. The games may have gone over, but LSU is still loaded on defense. Points won't come easily for Auburn. Count on another low-scoring "Tiger Fight." *SEC TOY |
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10-14-23 | Kent State v. Eastern Michigan OVER 38.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show | |
Given how bad the visiting defense is, this number is too low. Kent State just gave up 42 at Ohio last week. The Bobcats threw for 300 yards. In their previous road game, the Golden Flashes permitted 53. They allow an average or more than 35 per game, 44.8 per game on the road. The last six meetings have all finished at 48 or higher. EMU averages 25 per game at home but arguably hasn't hosted a defense this bad. The Eagles will exceed their average which will lead to the final score finishing over the low total! *eye opener |
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10-13-23 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary UNDER 49.5 | Top | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Third meeting. First two O/U lines were 43.5 and 45.5. Now we've got a much higher line. An extra handful of points makes a big difference! The play is about more than line value. Calgary just isn't scoring right now. The Stampeders scored 15 in their last game, at Hamilton. The previous game, a home date with Montreal, was even worse. Calgary managed only 11 points. Both games finished with 40 or less. The score from this season's earlier game here was a little misleading due to Overtime. They had 46 points in regulation. Saskatchewan's previous three visits here had final scores of 40, 37 and 46. This one stays Under. *CFL TOM |
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10-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Off a high-scoring Game 3, we'll see better pitching in this one. Strider has owned the Phillies for his career and he was sharp in the series opener. When Strider and Suarez opposed each other in Game 1, the final score was 3-0. Suarez didn't stick around too long but was brilliant for his time in there. Like Game 1, this one will likely be another low-scoring nail-biter. Go with the Under. *totals club |
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10-12-23 | SMU v. East Carolina OVER 49 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
I've got this one finishing with more than 50. These teams haven't played since 2020. So, most of the faces are different. Mike Houston, ECU's coach, is still here though. He knows that type of these games these teams typically play against each other. The last one finished with 90 points. The one before had 110! Prior to that, games had 86, 72, 69 and 83. The rivalry gets renewed on ESPN this evening and we'll see more offensive fireworks. The Mustangs can really score. They put up 69 points in a game last month and they had 34 last game. Last year, their first under offensive minded coach Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs averaged more than 37 points and more than 473 yards. The Mustangs will look forward to facing the Pirates suspect pass defense. We know SMU will score tonight. ECU will, too. The Pirates have scored 28, 17 and 44 their last three games. Off their previous loss, the Pirates scored 44. They average 28.5 at home. With SMU projected to finish with 30+ and ECU projected to score 20+, the final score finishes above this low total. *AAC TOY |
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10-11-23 | Liberty v. Aces UNDER 171.5 | Top | 76-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The Aces won a high-scoring Game 1. Worked for me, I had Las Vegas. The Liberty don't usually allow that many points though. We can expect a better defensive effort from them tonight. They allowed 87 or less after all their previous 9 losses, less than 80 in seven of those. The Liberty will improve defensively but they will still find scoring difficult. The under is still 7-3-1 the last 11 Aces' home games. The Aces dominated defensively in the Finals last year, Game 2 finishing with 156 points. This one stays beneath the total. *Playoff TOY |
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10-10-23 | Liberty v. Jacksonville State OVER 56.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Both these teams can really put up big numbers. Liberty averages more than 36 points per game. Jacksonville State averages more than 30. Though loaded on offense, the Flames are inexperienced on defense. The scoring dried up in their last game but they'd previously been one of the top offenses in the country. The Gamecocks have an experienced offense which has found its groove. Their last two games have finished with 63 and 75 points. Liberty may win but the Flames are going to need to score a lot to do so, these Gamecocks will score. Ive got this one finishing with 60+. *totals club |
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10-08-23 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
A high-scoring opener will be followed by a low-scoring Game 2. Valdez is 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA in 7 career appearances against the Twins. He held them to two hits and one run through 7 innings last time he faced them. He's been solid at home all season. Lopez has been solid on the road all season. He has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 3 straight starts and 12 of his last 14. His last start resulted in a 3-1 final. Expect some high-quality pitching with this game going under. *total dominator |
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
They may not have Aaron Rodgers behind center but the Jets have one of the best defenses in football. Their early season defensive stats are a bit skewed by the fact that three of their first four opponents have been the Chiefs, Cowboys and Bills. All three of those teams are top 10 scoring offenses. The Broncos are better defensively than they've shown. They turned the corner defense in the second half of last week's game. It was their defense which keyed the comeback. Last year's game had 25 points. The year before had 26. This game also goes Under. *AFC TOM |
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10-08-23 | Aston Villa v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -135 | 1 h 11 m | Show |
Low number for an Aston Villa match. In seven league contests, Villa has scored 18 goals and conceded 11. That's an average of more than four per match. The 29 total goals is second most in the entire EPL so far this season. Wolverhampton has allowed 13 and scored 8. That works out to three per match. With both teams finding the back of the net and at least one of them doing so multiple times, they'll get at least that many in this one. *EPL TOW |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma v. Texas UNDER 60.5 | 34-30 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 56 m | Show | |
This is the 119th time that these teams will meet. It's the first time since way back in 2008 that both were undefeated. That makes this game an even bigger deal than it normally is. Forget all the corn dogs and fried desserts for a minute, this is finally a big-time game! The Sooners have a score to settle. Remember last year? Scoring won't be easy for them though. Texas limited Oklahoma to 11 first downs and 195 total yards in last year's shutout. The Longhorns have a bigtime defense again this year. They went to Alabama and held the Tide to 24 points. No other opponent has scored more than 14 against them. Baylor scored six. Rice and Wyoming each had 10. Even factoring in Alabama, Texas is still allowing less than 300 yards of offense per game. The Sooners won't get blanked again but they also won't come close to matching some of the numbers they put up in this rivalry from 2018 to 2021. The Sooners are also playing top level defense. They're allowing just 10.8 points per game, tied for 4th best in all of college football. The offenses will get all the pre-game love but the defenses will rule the day! |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State OVER 53 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The Wildcats crushed the Cowboys 48-0 last year. This K-State offense is again loaded and will again put up a huge number. They enter the game averaging 39.5 points on the strength of 482.5 yards of offense per game. The Cowboys aren't about to get blanked again. They never have since. They scored 27 (34-27 loss) at Iowa State last game, the third time in their past four games that they've scored more than 26 points. Wildcats may not get 48 but they should get close to their average. The Cowboys gave up 34 to the Cyclones (and 33 to South Alabama before that) and the Wildcats are far more potent. With the Cowboys chipping in another 20+, this final score finishes over the total. *Big 12 TOW |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders UNDER 44.5 | Top | 40-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The Bears defense hasn't been good. Everyone knows that. The oddsmakers certainly do. Chicago's defensive struggles have rewarded us with an extra high total. Last year, these same teams played each other and the total was only 38.5. Remember how that game played out? It was a 12-7 final! Scoreless after the first quarter and 3-0 at halftime. Lots of kicking and poor red zone efficiency. Both teams ran the ball a lot. With both teams eager to clean up their defensive deficiencies, Thursday's game will take on a similar look and feel. Plenty of running will keep the clock ticking. When all is said and done, the final score will stay under the total. *NFC TOW |
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10-05-23 | Sam Houston State v. Liberty OVER 45.5 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
I played on the Bearkats to go Over last week's low total. One of the easier winners of my season. They had been really struggling to score and they were up against what had been an excellent Jacksonville State defense. The Sam Houston State offense came to life and made Jacksonville State's defense look decidedly ordinary. They finished with 435 yards of offense, 299 through the air and 28 points. Of course, they also gave up 35 points, after giving up 38 in their previous game. Now the Bearkats face Liberty which has scored 34, 33, 55 and 38. Averaging 40 points, the Flames rank #13 in the nation for scoring. Their 501 yards per game ranks in the top 10. They may easily go over this low number themselves. They won't need to though. Though loaded on offense, the Flames are inexperienced on defense. Sam Houston State will score. With both teams doing so, this one finishes over the low total. *CUSA TOTAL OF THE MONTH |
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10-04-23 | Florida International v. New Mexico State OVER 48.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
The total came down from where it started. It's my strong opinion that it is now too low. Remember, last year's O/U line was 54. Not a good defensive team, FIU has given up 38 or more points in two of its last three games. The Panthers did score 46 points (more than 500 yards of offense) against North Texas though. So, they're more than capable on offense. The Aggies are going to need to score in order to win. Their last three games came on the road but they scored 58 and 30 in their two home games. Expect this one to fly over the total! *Total Dominator |
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10-03-23 | Rangers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
October baseball will bring some of everything with an extra amount of quality pitching and defense. Montgomery has become the ace of this Texas staff and he's earned that title down the stretch. His final four starts, a span of 27 innings, have seen him allow only 2 total runs! The last three of those games stayed below the total. Glasnow was crisp last start, striking out nine through five shutout innings. He gave up only two hits in the 5-0 TB win. A playoff veteran, Glasnow is 3-0 with a 0.46 ERA against Texas. Runs will be hard to come by. Go with the Under! |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Neither of these teams has run the ball as effectively, or as regularly, as they'd like to. It's early though and we've still had a limited sample size. Its hard to run the ball when getting blown out. These are still a pair of clubs who want to run the ball and this should be a more competitive game. Saquon Barkley sounds doubtfut but the Giants still want to pound the rock. These teams combined for 40 last October, the Seahawks winning 27-13 at home. A look at the boxscore shows that yards did not come easily. The Giants had only 14 first downs and 225 total yards of offense. Seattle had 19 first downs and 277 total yards. That game fell below the total and this line is even higher. Go with the Under. *Total of Week. |
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10-02-23 | Chelsea v. Fulham UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
Goals won't come easily in this game. Neither team is scoring many goals this season. Fullham has five goals in six league matches. Ditto for Chelsea. Only lowly Burnley, which has four, has less. Not only does Chelsea, which is off a 1-0 victory, not score many but the Blues are also very hard to score against. They've conceded six times in six matches. Only Manchester City, which has allowed five in seven games, has permitted less. (Arsenal also has allowed six.) So, we've got a Chelsea team which doesn't score but which also doesn't get scored against, facing a Fullham team which doesn't score. Last h2h match had a score of 0-0 and three of the past four have finished with two or fewer goals. This one finishes with two or less again. Go with the Under. *EPL TOM |
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10-01-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
This number, in my estimation, is too low. Entering the weekend,.Baltimore games vs. right-handed starters were averaging 9.2 runs. Boston games vs. right-handers were averaging 9.9. Bradish has been pretty good but he got destroyed the last time that he faced the Red Sox in a game at Baltimore. In fact, he's 1-4 with a 8.13 ERA in 7 starts against Boston. Houck has just been plain bad. He gave up 10 hits in 3 innings of last start. He was on the wrong-sided of an 11-2 loss (against Bradish) against Baltimore less than a month ago. This one sails over! *AL East TOM |
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10-01-23 | Liberty v. Sun UNDER 160.5 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
The Sun stole Game 1 but the Liberty have stormed back to win the next two. They're favored to make it three in a row Sunday afternoon. The total is where I'm focusing my attention. Its a close-out game but its a higher total than either of the past two games. NY's close out game with Washington had only 152 points at the end of regulation. (Twenty-three more were scored in OT.) Even after the Game 3 result, the under is 13-6-1 the past 20 meetings between these teams in Connecticut. Nothing easy in this one. Defense rules the day! *Eastern Conf TOY |
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09-30-23 | San Diego State v. Air Force UNDER 42.5 | Top | 10-49 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The total is low for a reason. San Diego State is always tough defensively. Air Force has one of the most talented defenses in the country this year. That elite defense is typically on display when the Aztecs and Falcons get together. The last three meetings have gotten progressively lower-scoring with final scores of 21-17 in 2018, 20-14 in 2021 and 13-3 last year. The Aztecs had eight first downs and one rushing yard last year! (AF had 14 first downs and 14 passing yards.) Most of the same Falcon defenders are back from last year and the Aztecs will again have trouble moving the ball. Look for another defensive battle. *MWC TOY |
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09-28-23 | Jacksonville State v. Sam Houston State OVER 36.5 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This very low total says a lot about these teams. They don't possess the type of offenses that keep defensive coordinators up at night. They're still good to get over this low number though. The Gamecocks have scored 16 or more points in all four games and they're averaging just shy of 26 per game. The Bearkats have struggled to score but that's due to who and where they've been playing. Their three opponents were Houston, BYU and Air Force. A home game against Jacksonville State provides a much easier opportunity to move the ball and score points. They'll take advantage, as will their guests. Go with the Over! *CUSA TOY |
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09-26-23 | Wings v. Aces UNDER 176 | Top | 84-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
Game 1 saw these teams combine for 180 points. Forty-eight of those came in the final quarter. Game 2 has a higher total but will produce a lower final score. The Aces can score but can also dominate teams defensively. They held Chicago to 70 and 59 points in the two games of the opening round. Both those games fell below the total. They'll flex their defensive muscles in this one and keep the final score below the large number. *WNBA Total Of The Month |
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09-25-23 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Both teams played high scoring games on Sunday. This one will be different. Verlander against Castillo facing each other in a huge game. Talk about a heavyweight fight! These guys are both absolute aces. Verlander can still dominate. His last road start, he allowed one earned run in 7 innings. Castillo has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in five of his past six starts, including each of his past three. His last two home starts both finished with identical 3-2 scores. He held Houston to a single unearned run through 7 innings, back in July. Knowng their teams are in need, Castillo and Verlander both bring their A-Game in this one. Enjoy the old fashioned pitcher's duel. |
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09-25-23 | Rams v. Bengals UNDER 44 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Will Burrow play? My hunch is that he will. Either way, I still really like the under. Even with Burrow, the Cincinnati offense has been a mess. The Bengals rank dead last in the league, in terms of both points per game (13.5) and total yards. Fixing the problems against the Aaron Donald and the Rams won't be easy. (Remember the SB?) The Rams rank #6 in terms of yards allowed per game. The Bengals are better defensively than they've shown. Let's not forget that they allowed only 16.7 ppg last year. Only Dallas (16.5) allowed less. Points won't come easily for either team. Go with the Under! *MNF Total Of The Month |
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09-24-23 | Falcons v. Lions UNDER 46 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 41 m | Show |
It's not a secret that the Falcons are going to feature a lot of running plays. They did so last year and they're doing so again this season. Running the ball with regularity keeps the clock moving. While the Falcons rank in the top 5 in rushing attempts per game, the Lions rank in the Top 10. Atlanta is running 35.5 times per game. Detroit is doing so 30.5 times. So, it's safe to assume that this game is going to see a lot of rushing. The Lions are off a high-scoring game. That reminded many of their previously poor defense and helped in providing a high total. Remember, that the Lions' opener saw them hold KC to only 20 points, a 21-20 final. This is actually a much improved defense from last year. The Falcons defense is playing well. Atlanta has allowed an average of only 17 ppg. Since last year, the Falcons have allowed 24 or fewer points in nine straight games. None of their last eight games have reached the 50 point mark and six of those finished with less than 40. This game will be low-scoring. *Sept. Total Of The Month |
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09-24-23 | West Ham United v. Liverpool UNDER 3.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
These clubs are undoubtedly more capable of scoring than the ones we discussed (Fulham and Crystal Palace) yesterday. However, that's reflected in a much higher total. Too high. The last three matches between these teams had final scores of 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1, all in favor of Liverpool. Remember, Liverpool has only conceded four goals in five league matches. Only Manchester City, which has allowed three, has given up less. West Ham has conceded a respectable 1.4 gpg, seven through its five games. With neither team easy to score against, just as the three previous meetings did, this one finishes with three or less. *golden boot |
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09-23-23 | California v. Washington OVER 57.5 | Top | 32-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
I set this O/U line in the low 60s. Washington has the potential to go over this number by itself. I'm not joking. The Huskies scored 56 against Boise State and they've gone over 40 in every game. They're averaging an impressive 614.7 yards of offense per game. The Huskies won't need to go over by themselves though, as Cal will contribute. The Bears scored 31 last week and they scored 58 in their only road game. They're averaging 437+ ypg. Expect some "end of the summer" fireworks, as this turns into a Saturday evening shootout! *total of week |
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09-23-23 | Fulham v. Crystal Palace UNDER 2.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
Neither team is likely to score more than 1 goal. Frankly, these punchless offenses will be lucky to even get 1. Palace has scored 1 or less in four of its past five matches. Two of those ended in 1-0 scores. Likewise, Fullham has scored 1 or less in four of its past five matches. Two of those also ended with scores of 1-0. I'm calling for either another 1-0 final or a 1-1 draw. |
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09-19-23 | White Sox v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
The Nationals and the White Sox have both been eliminated from the postseason and are starting to play around with their pitching staffs to see what will work for the future. Probable starter Rutledge for the Nats has one start in the majors to his name and it didn’t go well. He gave up 7 runs in 3.2 innings of work. He has bounced around in the minors for 7 teams in the last 4 years with wildly varying degrees of success. He should be just the remedy the White Sox need to activate their lethargic bats. Probable starter Ureno for the White Sox had 5 starts in April, was released by two clubs and now has 2 starts in September. In his last 5 starts his team has surrendered an average of 9.4 runs. In their last 7 games the two teams have given up an average total of 11.5 runs/9 innings. All these numbers point towards that perfect storm of high event baseball. Make a bowl of popcorn and add up the runs for this over total. |
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09-16-23 | Iowa State v. Ohio OVER 42 | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
Two teams that have yet to play to an over collide here on Saturday afternoon, but I think that the offensive floodgates will finally open up here in Week 3. Iowa State lost 20-13 to Iowa last week, with Rocco Becht finishing with 203 yards and a TD. The Cyclones only allowed 21.2 PPG, last year, but they also won this exact game by a score of 43-10 at home over Ohio last years. I foresee a similar final combined score here as well. Ohio is 2-1 after holding on for a 17-10 win at FAU last weekend. The Bobcats offense was ranked in the Top 50 in 2022 with 29.7 PPG. They especially excelled at home, averaging 40 PPG at Peden Stadium. They did score 27 points in their first home game and I think they'll exceed that here. This number is a little low, the play is the over. |
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09-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Two very good right-handers meet up today when the D-backs' Kelly faces the Mets' Senga today. Kelly has been one of the most consistent starters since returning from the IL in July. He has a 1.42 ERA with 18 K's in his two September starts. Senga has a 2.82 ERA in his last seven starts. He faced the Diamondbacks in July, throwing an 8 inning, 1 run gem. Arizona, at 6-4, has been winning with their pitching. The offense hasn't managed more than four runs and is averaging less than three in their last six games. The Mets put up 14 runs in their last two starts against the Diamondbacks, but in their previous five games averaged under three runs. The Mets have been hitting for power if not for average in the last week; not so the D-backs, who are 25th in the league at .238/.697. I expect today's game to be low scoring. Take the Mets and Diamondbacks to stay very low in runs allowed while the starters are in, and hold on for the under. |
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09-12-23 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
These two teams were two of the first to be eliminated from the post-season and are wallowing down at the bottom of the standings, doing what they can to make it to the end and set themselves up for next season. Who would have thought we would find such value in a couple of dumpster fire seasons. In their last three head-to-head they have totals of 10, 13 and 13. Tuesday’s probable starters, Singer for the Royals and Cease for the White Sox started that middle 13 total. In Cease’s last two starts he has totals of 13 and 15. Cease had an ERA of 8.07 in August and is at 6.05 in September. Singer has an ERA of 6.43 for his last 5 starts. The available bullpens both have ERAs north of 5.50. The Royals have averaged 5.0 runs against/ 9 innings and the White Sox have averaged 4.5 runs against/9 innings over their last 7 seven games. All these numbers add up to totals well over 9 for this game. Take the over and enjoy an early high event game. |
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09-10-23 | Brewers v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Two top dogs in the pitching world face each other on Sunday with Burnes and Cole on the mound. Cole has won three straight although his ERA rose to 4.06 in August. His last three starts have been typical Gerrit Cole, pitching at least 6 innings and allowing just 5 runs over 19+ innings. Burnes on the other hand has been alternating between good and sub-par starts lately. He has allowed 11 runs over 19 innings, not typical of his usual performances. As far as offense goes, the Yankees are among the league's worst at .199/.651 over the last two weeks, paling in comparison to the usually poor-hitting Brewers at .266/.754. The Brewers have pummeled NY in the first two games, but this should be a much tighter affair. I expect both starters to bring their best stuff; these are two pitchers vying for a Cy Young this year. The Brewers thrashed the usually excellent Yankees bullpen for multiple runs in the last two games, but a rebound is very likely. The Brewers also have a fine relief corps. Look for a low scoring game and take the under on Sunday!
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09-06-23 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
These two clubs have been involved in some high scoring games in September. The Twins have been in 4 straight games where the total has gone over. The Guardians are over for 3 of their last 4 games. And I really mean over. The Twins last 4 have averaged a total of 16 runs/game. The Guardians last 4 have averaged a total of 14.5 runs/game. Maybe the probable starters for these two teams will be different though. Not so fast. In his last nine starts, Ryan for the Twins has seen 8 out of 9 go over. And Williams for the Guardians has a 6.97 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In their last 7 games the Twins have averaged 7.6 runs for/ 9 innings, while the Guardians have averaged 6.9 runs against/ 9 innings. That makes a total that sure looks like an over. Or you could use the 5.0 runs against/9 innings the Twins have averaged over their last 7 and the 4.7 runs for/9 innings the Guardians have averaged, and you will still get an awfully over looking total. Take the over and start counting runs. |
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09-04-23 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
The Phillies are just 1-4 in recent games. They kept the score down in their win on Sunday but allowed at least seven runs in the previous four games. Taijuan Walker starts on Monday, and while he has been steady this year, he still gives up 3 runs on average while pitching around five innings lately. His ERA is more than 1.5 runs higher on the road, but he has had great run support this season. Padres' starter, lefty Rich Hill's starts have been very short lately. He gave up nearly a run an inning in August, not a good look against a Phillies team that is tops in bops over the last two weeks. Both offenses are strong; the Phillies are .288/.960 OPS and very good against left handed pitching, while the Padres have climbed to .258/.754 lately. The Phillies swept the Padres in earlier meetings and all games easily went over. I expect the same result today. Both starters appear tired at this stage of the season, Hill especially at the ripe old age of 43. Take the Phillies and Padres to again go over the the total today. |
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09-03-23 | Rays v. Guardians OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
The Rays, challenging for first in their division, have lost 2 close games to the Guardians, after a fine 7-1 run. They are 18-8 as a road favorite, and hitting well (.277/.820 OPS) in the last two weeks. Cleveland, often down in the offense stats, has been better than average at .263/.726 in the last week. Rays' call-up Bradley was effective in the Minors lately, but still has issues with walks and home runs. Bradley was just 1-4, 7.67 ERA with the Rays this year, but Tampa needs help with starters. Guardians' youngster Curry has now started 5 straight games, with very mixed success. He threw for just a pair of innings each in his last two starts giving up 9 runs total. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt OVER 55.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Both of these teams disappointed last year, but especially Hawaii which finished 3-10. Vanderbilt wasn't much better at 5-7. These teams opened last year in Hawaii against each other, and Vanderbilt scored the 63-10 win. While I do believe this year's rematch will be considerably more competitive, I do in fact feel we'll see a similar final combined score, so because of that I'm going to be playing the over. Good news for Hawaii is consistency at the QB position from last year to this one, with Brayden Schager back under center. He finished second in the MW with 2,348 passgin yards. Defense was a weak point last year, allowing 34.69 PPG. The Commodores were even worse defensively, yielding 36 PPG. Look for these teams to open things up offensively and expect this total to eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done. |
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08-26-23 | Guardians v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
The Jays and Guardians have played each other five times this year and not one of those games has gone over 7 runs. Jays' lefty Riu looks to have his best stuff back since returning from a long stint on the IL. He has given up 0 runs in his last 3 starts, averaging around 5 innings per appearance. He shut out the Guardians over 4 innings last time he faced them. Left- handed rookie Logan Allen has had a fine first season. He struggled mid-season but looks to have rallied in August, with a 1.96 ERA for the month. He held Toronto to 1 run over 5 innings just 3 starts ago. Both teams have solid bullpens lately. The Guardians are the worst team in the league against lefties, while the Jays are a poor 28th against everyone in the last 2 weeks. Take Saturday's game to go under the total again. |
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08-25-23 | Luton Town v. Chelsea OVER 3 | Top | 0-3 | Push | 0 | 36 h 18 m | Show |
Chelsea and Luton Town have both been playing high event soccer as of late. Chelsea has given up the first goal in their last 6 EPL matches. But they do have 3.54 Xgoals so far and Jackson alone has 1.14. Big signing Caicedo will get his first start alongside the other big signing Mac Allister (his former teammate) and both will benefit from playing with Sterling who has been a real bright spot for Chelsea. They lead the league in big chances missed so the tide will have to turn here. Brighton surrendered 4 goals in their first game and also had their woodwork hit 3 times, so they give up chances galore. They play a very direct game and should also get success against a very fragile backline that will be missing star James for this one. Chelsea’s Xgoals/90 is 1.96 while Luton’s is 1.46 which gives a total over 3. Most predictions have Chelsea scoring 3 so Luton only needs to find the net once to get a high total in this one. Go for the over and enjoy all the high event soccer. |
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08-20-23 | Saints v. Chargers OVER 37.5 | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
Off wins in Week One of the NFLX, the Saints face the Chargers on Sunday. Both teams had fine offensive numbers in their first games. The Chargers put up 34 points vs the Rams, including a surprising 200 yards from the run game. We didn't see any of Justin Herbert and likely won't this week. Stick played well last week and is expected to have the bulk of the time. Rookie Duggan will see time as well. The Saints managed 26 points vs the Chiefs. Look for Carr and first line receivers to possibly get extra playing time to familiarize Carr with the Saints offense. New Orleans also allowed 24 points to the Chiefs rookies and hopefuls. Look for a focus on the New Orleans pass offense, for Stick and Duggan to duke it out while attempting to prove themselves, and for a continued attempt by the Chargers to establish their run game. The best bet for this game? Take the Chargers and Saints to go over the total. |
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08-19-23 | Tigers v. Guardians UNDER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
The Tigers and Guardians split a double-header on Friday, scoring just 5 and 6 runs total in the two games. Another low scoring game might be in the cards on Saturday with Manning facing the Guardians' rookie phenom Bibee. Bibee is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.06 in his last seven games, and has been remarkably consistent, allowing no more than 3 runs in his last 10 appearances against tough competition. Manning starts for the Tigers. He bounced back with a very fine start after 3 straight rough outings. He has been much better in away games this season. The Tigers and Guardians are 21st and 28th vs right handers. Cleveland is poor against anyone of late with a .236/.644 OPS in the last two weeks. The under in Cleveland's and Detroit's last ten games is a combined 15-5. I like the under in this game as well. Look for a very low total in the early going. Take the Tigers and Guardians to stay under the total . |
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08-19-23 | Brentford v. Fulham OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Two clubs who gained promotion in the 2020’s will face off in one version of the West London Derby Friday. Brentford is at Fulham as both clubs are eager to get their second straight result. Brentford hung in against one of the top sides in the Premiership, Tottenham, for a 2-2 draw. Fulham won 1-0 vs Everton in a game they were seriously outclassed in. It is a tough call to pick a winner as both lost at home to the other, 3-2, over the past season. What is clear though is both clubs are involved in matches with a generous number of goals. In their last 5 at home Fulham is 4-1 on games over the 2.5 total, while in their last 4 away, Brentford is 3-1 for the over 2.5 total. Head-to-head these two clubs are 4-0 for the over 2.5. Yes, there is a clear trend here and it is clear what you should do. |
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08-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Hamilton OVER 44 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
It has finally started to happen. The CFL’s offences are catching up to the defences. In week 10 the games averaged 60 points/game (second highest average total of the season). Passing led to 17 TDs with only 7 INTs. Both of these teams have new OCs with lots of experience sorting out CFL offensive opportunities and limitations. The Elks and their new starting QB Ford threw a real scare into the Bombers last week, jumping out to a 22-0 lead early. And this week WR Lewis, last year’s outstanding player in the East, will return to add another threat to the Elks’ passing game. The Ti-Cats hired Grey Cup winning coach Milanovich as their OC and he has had two weeks (coming off a bye) to prepare his new team. He was a QB coach for the NFL Colts so he should help QB Powell improve his production. Between two rejuvenated offences and two low rated defences this should be a high scoring affair. Take the over and enjoy the fireworks. |
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08-15-23 | Yankees v. Braves OVER 10.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -122 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
Probable pitcher Severino for the Yankees recently called himself the worst pitcher in baseball. That hasn’t been the case in the recent past as he was an all-star once. But lately with a 13.50 ERA so far in August and an 11.22 ERA in July he has been horrendous. Add in a 2.15 WHIP over his last 3 and you have a recipe for lots of runs. Probable starter Elder for the Braves started out strong but has faltered as of late. His August ERA is 9.64 so far and his July ERA was 5.96. In his last 3 starts his WHIP has been 1.347 and his ERA has been 6.06. At the plate the Braves lead the majors over the last 15 days and all season vs. RHP in avg. and OPS. The Yankees have been middle of the pack over the last 15 days but have some power at the plate that could cause Elder some grief. In their last 7 games the Yankees have averaged 4.9 runs for/9 innings and 5.6 runs against/9 innings which in and of itself could lead to a formidable total but when you look at the Braves 8.4 runs for/9 innings and 4.0 runs against/9 innings in their last 7, this could get ugly for the pitchers. The Yankees have been 6-4 in their last 10 for overs and the Braves have been 8-2 for overs in their last 10. This could be a perfect storm for a runaway total. |
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08-14-23 | Pirates v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
The 3-7 Mets salvaged a single win in the Braves series, but gave up a massive 33 runs in the three games. Pittsburgh is 5-5 L10, but has seen the over in seven of ten games, averaging six runs-allowed in their last seven games. Carrasco was surprisingly good in his last start (two runs over five innings), but based on his record this year, he is no one to rely on for a quality start. His ERA in July was 7.79 and he gave up a dozen runs in his previous eight plus innings. He has been especially poor when pitching at home this year. He'll face rookie right-hander Priester, who has struggled in his first season. None of his starts have gone over five innings, and he is hovering around a run an inning for the season. The Mets are struggling with the bats, scoring four runs or less in nine of ten games, but they will get their chances vs Priester. The Pirates were 10th in OPS over the last week and will have the chance to run up the score if Carrasco reverts to his season's form. The Mets' bullpen is a disaster lately, the Pirates', merely poor. Take the Mets and Pirates to go over the total. |
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08-13-23 | Rangers v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
After a run-fest yesterday in the Rangers/Giants match up on Saturday, It could be a low scoring game today. Webb, the Giants' most dependable starter, has been consistent this year, pitching for length with low runs allowed and very good control. Dunning slipped a bit in July but his last 2 starts have been fine, allowing just 4 runs over 13 innings. The Giants are really struggling to produce runs, batting just .210 with a .590 OPS in the last week. The Rangers are getting excellent results from their bullpen lately. They are a formidable offensive team, but like anyone else will struggle against a fine starter. Look for length and quality from today's starters, and a total similar to Game One of the series. Play the Under today! |
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08-13-23 | Guardians v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
After a pair of high scoring games, I expect Sunday's Guardians/Rays match-up to be a much lower scoring affair. The starters, Bibee and Eflin have been especially tough to score on in recent action. Bibee is 4-0 with and ERA of 1.70 in his last 7 games. What has he done lately? Only shut out the Jays over 7 innings pitched. Eflin has been terrific in his two August starts, allowing just a single run over 13 innings. He is 10-2, with an ERA of 2.49 in home starts this season and has yet to walk anyone this month. Neither team has faced the opposing starter to date. Tampa (.274/.810 OPS) is a top 7 offense over the last two weeks, however the Guardians are a low-flying 29th at .218/.594 OPS. Both teams are known for their bullpens, but neither relief corps is performing especially well. I expect a very low scoring game in the early going. Both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings. Look for the bullpens to hang on. Take the Guardians and Rays to go under the total. |
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08-12-23 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
After a 20 run slug-fest on Friday, I expect Saturday's Cards/Royals total to be far less. Both left-handed starters are on fine runs. Matz has been very good since returning, pitching for length and allowing just a pair of runs in his last 4 starts. Royals rookie Ragans has been equally impressive, giving up just 2 runs in his last three outings and striking out 19(!) in his last two appearances. Neither bullpen impressed on Friday, but the game was a blow-out early, so both teams' best relievers should be available on Saturday. The Royals are hitting well but generally struggle vs left-handed pitching. The Cardinals are very average at the moment on offense. I think the total is slightly inflated after Friday's 12-8 outcome. Take the total to go under on Saturday. |
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08-09-23 | Blue Jays v. Guardians UNDER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak, while the Guardians are on a 3-game losing streak. Different directions. The Blue Jays were buyers at the trade deadline, while the Guardians were sellers. They don’t match up here either. But when you look at probable pitchers Gausman (2.40 ERA in L5) and Allen (2.20 ERA in L5), they have both been effective lately. Both bullpens are solid too. And over their last 10 games the Jays are 1-9 on unders while the Guardians are 2-7-1. In their last 7 the Jays have 5.1 R/9 while the Guardians have 2.4R/9, the total of which is looking good for an under. All of these facts add up to a pretty clear conclusion on the total for these two in Wednesday’s game. Go with the under for these two for a solid play. |
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08-09-23 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Two teams struggling to win (both are 1-4 over their last 5) and struggling at the plate over the last 15 are coming up against a couple of interesting probable starters. Cueto is only five starts into his return from a long layoff but has shown some mastery with a tiny 0.95 WHIP. Although this hasn’t translated into wins for him he has pitched a 1 and 2 ER outing. Ashcraft, the ace of the Reds staff, has been very solid as of late (a 1.89 ERA in July) and an ERA of 2.32 over his last 5 starts. Both teams are in the bottom half of the majors in avg. and OPS over the last 15 days. The Marlins have averaged 3.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Reds have averaged 4.6 run/9 innings over the same stretch. All of the above combined with the Marlins 1-5 record and the Reds 0-6 record in unders over their last 6 games and you have a solid value pick for Wednesday’s game between these two underachievers. Take the under and enjoy this early win to start your Wednesday plays. |
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08-08-23 | Blue Jays v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Both of Tuesday's starting pitchers have been terrific in their last three starts. Kikuchi has allowed just a pair of runs over 17+ innings, while Bibee, the Guardians' rookie, has allowed 5 runs in 18+ innings and has a 1.78 ERA in July. While the Jays are hitting well lately, the Guardians are dead last in OPS over the last two weeks, and struggle vs left handed pitching. The Jays haven't faced Bibee previously, and this lineup often struggles when facing a new good pitcher. Both teams have solid bullpens; the Jays' has been especially impressive lately with an ERA of under 3.00. This could be a closely fought pitchers' duel on Tuesday. Take these two teams, who haven't met since last year, to come out under the total. |
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08-06-23 | Giants v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
The Giants are 7-3 but it isn't the offense that is winning games for them. At .210 BA/.624 they are 30th in the league in OPS over the last two weeks and have scored four or less runs in nine of ten games. The A's are somewhat better at .231/.693, but have trouble scoring as well, with 3 or less runs in their last five games. Medina starts for Oakland. The rookie has improved dramatically this season and is off 3 fine starts, allowing just 3 runs total in 15+ innings. He struck out 27 batters while cutting down on free passes in July. Cobb likely starts for the Giants. He blanked the A's in late July and finished the month with a 2.42 ERA. The two teams are averaging 2.9 and 3.9 runs a game over their last seven, making a total look very promising. The one issue is the A's bullpen, which has not been very dependable this season, but did show well yesterday. I am wagering on continued poor offense from both teams and taking the Under today. |
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08-03-23 | BC v. Winnipeg UNDER 45 | Top | 14-50 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 40 m | Show |
Two Western Conference titans will go head-to-head with the top defence in the league and the most experienced defence in the league. The Lions are 1st or 2nd in 13 team defense categories while the Bombers are 1st or 2nd in 7 team defense categories. The key category for both is points against where the Lions are 1st and the Bombers are 2nd. The Lions “D” has “pitched” two shutouts this year and only allowed the Bombers 6 points in their first game in Winnipeg this season. The Bombers are coming off a bye so they should do a bit better but not enough to get to a high score. The Lions will start their 2nd string QB Evans again this week and he hasn’t had great success against defensive coordinator Hall’s Bombers in the past. So, in spite of these offenses being highly ranked, they will be in tough for this game. The Lions are 7-1 in their last 8 for unders on the road, and 10-1 for unders in their last 11 vs. the West. The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 for unders vs. teams with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the West, and 4-0 for unders after an ATS loss. There are many more ways these teams favor unders so it’s safe to say playing the under for this game is a good thing. |
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08-01-23 | Angels v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
These two teams can hit and have been on a tear at the plate lately. Probable pitchers Sandoval for the Angels and Strider for the Braves have been impressive (especially Strider) and have decent stats but lately they have been involved in very high scoring games. In the last 5 he has started, Sandoval’s games have resulted in an average total of 11.2 runs while Strider’s have averaged 9.4 runs over the same stretch of games. Add to that, the fact that these two teams have been productive at the plate over the last 15 days, the Angels have the 4th best OPS in the majors and the Braves have the 2nd best and you can see where this is leading. Against LH starters the Braves have the best OPS and 2nd best avg. in the majors. The Angels have the 4th best OPS and 10th best avg. against RH starters. This seems like a recipe for some serious production at the plate and the results bear that out. At home the Braves’ games average a total of 10.6 runs/game while the Angels’ games on the road average a total of 9.8 runs/game. When you put together the Braves average vs LHP (5.9 runs/game) and the Angels average vs RHP ( 5.1 runs/game) you end up with another high total of 11. In the last 10 head-to-head, these two teams have an over record of 7-3. All these numbers add up to a great play for the over on this game. |
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07-28-23 | Rangers v. Padres OVER 8 | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
The Rangers are allowing a whopping 7.3 runs a game over the last week, and that underwhelming bullpen is part of the problem. Dunning starts today, and while he is having an impressive season, he has struggled in two of three starts. Last time out was his worst start of the year. Musgrove has been very solid, but the Rangers are a formidable offense to reckon with. The Padres are starting to hit, climbing to tenth in OPS over the last week. Today's total is low, but I am wagering on the total to go over when all is said and done. |
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07-28-23 | Tigers v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Both the Tigers and the Marlins have faltered lately. Probable pitcher Olson for the Tigers and Garrett for the Marlins have also faltered. In their last three starts, rookie Olson has a 6.00 ERA and Garrett has a staggering 9.23 ERA. It hasn’t been pretty. The Tigers’ road games and the Marlins’ home games average totals greater than 8. Tigers’ games vs a LH starter and Marlins’ games vs a RH starter both average totals greater than 8 For the season, the Tigers average 3.89 runs for /9 and 4.83 runs against/9. The Marlins average 4.14 runs for /9 and 4.32 runs against/9. If you take any two of those averages and add them together you will have a total well over 8. Go with the over on this game and you will be over the moon. |
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07-25-23 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Probable pitchers Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been on fire lately. Abbott’s last 5 outings have averaged 6.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.00. Burnes has been even better with a 1.60 ERA in his last 5 starts, also averaging 6.1 innings. In July his WHIP is a miniscule 0.63. In the last 15 days, both teams have been in the bottom fifth of the majors in batting average and OPS. The Brewers have especially struggled against LHP. Starting to look a pretty strong case is being made for an under total. In their last 8 games over/unders have been 1-7 for the Brewers and 2-6 for the Reds. Head to head, in their last 10, over/unders have been 3-7 and in their last 5 they have been 0-5. The recipe for an under looks like it is coming together just fine. |
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07-23-23 | Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 45 | Top | 43-41 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
Both these teams had confidence boosting wins last week. This week each will face a defence in the top half of the league and both offences continue to languish in the bottom quarter of the league. Calgary will have put together a package to deal with Ottawa’s QB Crumb who surprised everyone in the second half of week 6’s come from behind win over an aging Bombers’ defence with his mobility and ability to find receivers. The Stamps will not be surprised and will disguise the pass rush and run defence that should be problematic for the QB making his second career start. Calgary’s Maier has had problems when he is hurried. Ottawa is second in the league in sacks. With Mills and the Calgary run game struggling last week against the Riders, they will not have an easier time this week against the 2nd best run defence in the league. The Red Blacks have the 3rd highest number of sacks as well so with troubles running the football Maier, will be in some difficulty trying to pass effectively. Ottawa and Calgary already have the worst and 3rd worst passing yards/game numbers so put this all together and we have another early season defensive battle on our hands. Take the under and enjoy the domination of the defences. |
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07-23-23 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 10 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
The Brewers have been a strong 12-5 in July, with a better winning % than the 9-7 Braves. A pair of right-handers with a similar issue start today. Teheran returned from a lengthy absence with a small run of terrific starts, but has since struggled, giving up 17 runs in 16 innings. He has an OP BA of .327 in July. Braves' starter Elder has had a fine year until his last two starts. He has allowed a dozen runs in just 6+ innings, with an ERA of 9.95 in July. Atlanta is 5.4/6.9 in runs for and against over the last week. The 8-2 Brewers are not know for offense but have been averaging 4 runs a game lately, and will have their chances against Elder. The Braves' overall ERA over the last two weeks is an ugly 6.14. Atlanta leads the league in offense and can put up runs in a hurry against a struggling pitcher like Teheran. Take today's game to go over the total. |
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07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton UNDER 44.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
For Ottawa there is good news and bad news and then some sort of good news. Ottawa got their first win in week 4 and then their winning QB turned out to have a torn ACL and is now out for the season. The sort of good news is that star QB Masoli is back after a year off from a broken leg. Great to have him back, but welcome to the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the CFL. As the rest of the league is beginning to get enough reps on offence to shake off the rust and begin to string some plays into drives and hopefully into points, Masoli will be starting at square one. It won’t be pretty. His star favorite receiver from last year, Ellingsen, is still out and this year’s top recruit Evans is still out too. Luckily for him his “D” has been solid this year with the third best results in the league for yards allowed and points allowed by their opponent’s offence. They should be able to contain Hamilton’s offence, what with two starters on the O-line (including the off-season’s biggest signing LT Figueroa) Hamilton has their own problems with top signing QB, Levi-Mitchell, on the shelf. Backup Shiltz has slowly improved, with his best outing in week 4, but although they lead the league in red zone trips they have the third worst points for number in the league. What we have here is a perfect storm for a low total. They are the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in offense yards/game, last and 2nd to last big plays (20+ yds rush play; 30+ yds pass play) and major questions with unproven receivers on both sides. Put that together with under being 5-2 in both their last 7 in Hamilton and against each other and you have a pretty strong case. Another interesting stat is that by the end of week 4, 66% of games have been under and to start week 5 both games have been under. Going for the under with these two sputtering teams is a good call for this one. |
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07-07-23 | Royals v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
Two solid starters, both just seven starts in from an IL return, square up in Game two of the KC/Cleveland series. Royals' lefty Lynch has allowed just four runs over 18 innings in his last three starts, including a pair of rare Royals wins. It is a small sample size but Lynch has been very strong (1.89 ERA) on the road to date. Guardians' right hander Civale has given up two or less runs in five of his last six starts. He held the Cubs to just three hits over six innings last time out. The Royals' offense just isn't getting the job done, managing just 8 runs in their last 4 games. Cleveland does not hit left handers very well, managing just.234 BA, with very few home runs to date. |
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07-04-23 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Push | 0 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
Both probable pitchers have run hot and cold lately. But Davies of the D-backs just pitched 7 shutout innings, while Senga has only allowed 2 runs in each of his last two starts. Both teams have been middle of the pack in hitting over the last 15 days. But in terms of runs neither have produced much. In their last 7 games the Mets have averaged 4.0 runs/9 for and the D-backs have averaged 3.9 runs/9 for. Both those are under the expected line of 9. On top of that the Mets have only allowed 3.1 runs/9 against while the D-backs have only allowed 3.3 runs/9 against. All of these numbers add up to a low scoring affair. In Senga’s last 5 starts on grass the under is 5-0 and his last 4 on the road have the unders at 4-0. The D-backs are under in all 5 of their last 5 games and they have the unders at 5-0 in their last 5 on grass. It should all go together to get you under the wire with a safe play on the under. |
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06-30-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa UNDER 42.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
This is the turtle derby with the two winless wonders, the Elks and the RedBlacks, doing battle. Both teams have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball. So much so that they will both start new QBs this week. Doege had some good results in relief of Cornelius albeit in garbage time against the Argos last week while Adams did just OK in relief of the hapless Arbuckle. The QBs aren’t the problem as both teams have chaos causing O-lines that can’t control the line of scrimmage enough for their skill players to produce. And the Elks will be without starting LT Garnett this week. On top of that the little passing production the Elks had against the Argos will be reduced without star receiver Lewis and wily vet Arcenaux. The Elks defence hung in there for the first half against the Argos but just ran out of gas because their offence just couldn’t stay on the field long enough for them to catch their breath. Given that the RedBlacks seem to have mastered the 2 and out so far this year the Elks “D” should perform better. The Redblacks D-line should continue their successful ways against this woeful Elks O-line and its resultant weak rushing attack. These two teams’ offences are 8th and 9th in the league in total yards, passing yards and points scored. The Elks have averaged 14.7 points/game while the RedBlacks are even worse with a 13.5 points/ game avg. You can see where I’m headed here. In their last 9 head to head the under is 9-1 between these two teams. The Redblacks have had an under total for all 3 games this season, are 7-1 for the under in their last 8 week 4 games and 4-1 in their last 5 games in June. The Elks unders are 2-1 this season. Although the field is dry and artificial turf these two offences will mud wrestle their way to an under total on Friday night. |
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06-28-23 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
These two probable pitchers have been outstanding lately. The White Sox’ Giolito is having an amazing June as his ERA is 1.50 and his WHIP is 1.04. In his last start he whiffed 10 batters over 6 innings and gave up 1 earned run in a losing effort. In his last 3 starts Giolito’s ERA is 2.00. Angels’ Barria usually works from the bullpen but has started 4 games this season. In those four starts his ERA is 2.83. But what about the under records for these two teams. The White Sox unders are 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs right handed starters and 3-0-2 in their last 5 on the road. In their last 11 the Angels’ under record is 11-0 vs. teams with a losing record. In terms of hitting, the woeful White Sox are 26th in avg. and 25th in OPS over the last 15 days. The Angel are in the top 5 in both stats over the last 15 days but in their last game against Giolito the Angels lost and were held to 4 hits against him over 5 innings. This looks like another solid total. Go with the under on this one. |
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06-27-23 | Rays v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
Probable pitchers Bradley for the Rays and Gallen for the D-backs are both having solid seasons. But looking under the hood for both shows a deterioration in June. Bradley’s ERA has ballooned to 4.26 and his WHIP is 1.46 for the month. Gallen’s has crept up too to 3.16 and 1.25 respectively. Bradley is only lasting an average of less than 5 innings per outing. He really has depended on a solid Rays bullpen to bail him out. It may be too late by the time they arrive though as the D-backs are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS. In terms of scoring, the Rays have averaged 5.67 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.24 R/9. In their L10 the Rays have averaged 6.71 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.94/9. Those two sets of stats point to an average total of well over 10 for this match up. Take the over on this one. |
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06-26-23 | Reds v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
The Reds are hitting exceptionally well at the moment, first in BA and OPS over the last week.. They have had to to keep winning, with an overall ERA of 6.00+ lately. Reds' lefty Williamson has an ERA of 5.64 in June and he will face much tougher competition in the Orioles on Monday. The second inning has been deadly; he has an ERA of over 12.00. The Orioles have pitching woes of their own, both starting and relief. Mondays' starter Irwin has been a little better in his recent call-up, but his innings have been limited . He has struggled the third time through the order with a frightening ERA of 32.40 when pitching into the fifth. Relief is not in sight, with a bullpen ERA of 7.56 over the last 10 games. Two solid hitting teams, two struggling starters and bullpens. Let's not stray from the obvious on Monday. Take the Orioles and Reds to go over the total. |
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06-23-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 44 | Top | 38-12 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
Montreal has only played one game. They are barely out of pre-season and that means a disjointed offence in the CFL in June. Hamilton’s starting QB is a game time decision that seems to be leaning towards not playing. Hamilton’s O-line is banged up and dysfunctional. Starting LT (Figureroa) and RT(Riley) are both out and 5 other O-linemen are on IR. Top receiver Bayless is also out. Not a recipe for a successful offence. Both teams were already looking like they were going to depend on their defences this season. The under is 4-0 for the last 4 between these two teams in Hamilton. Under is 6-1 for the last 7 between these two teams. For Montreal unders are 6-1 in their last 7 following a win. Clearly with past records and underperforming offences in June you should take the under for this game. |
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06-22-23 | BC v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
The big dogs are playing a game already. The undefeated Bombers and Lions with their dominant defences will punish their respective offences in a classic early season battle. For the Lions two of their top receivers are out (Rhymes and Hatcher) and their third top receiver (Whitehead) is back and could be fragile. For the Bombers their star RB (Oliveira) is questionable which could be a setback for their league leading rush game. This game pits the #1 pass offence (Bombers) against the #1 pass defence (Lions). June in the CFL always gives the edge to the defence. The Lions’ defence is also #1 in points allowed with a miniscule 7.5 points against/game so far. Combine that with the Bombers only allowing 29 points against/game and you have a total of only 36.5 allowed/game by these two defences. In their last 6 games under is 6-0 for BC and their last 5 road games under is 5-0 (that includes two games in Winnipeg). An interesting stat is that the Bombers in their last 7 week 3 games have unders dominating 6-1. Go with the under and enjoy a smash mouth defensive battle. |
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06-19-23 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 9 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
The Tigers have won 3 of 4 games and averaged 7 runs in those wins. That is quite an improvement for a team enmired in the cellar on offense this season. Eight of their last ten games have gone over. The Royals are allowing plenty of runs lately; over 6 on average in their last 7 games. They are very poor as a road underdog and just 2-13 in June. Jordan Lyles has had an abysmal year to date, the consistent victim of big innings. At 0-11 and with an era of well over 6, quality starts have been few and far between. Young Tigers starter Olson surprised in his first two appearances since a June call up but his last start is probably truer to form, when he allowed 6 ER in 3+ innings. He struggled seriously in Triple A this season. Both teams have an opportunity to put up some runs today. I m wagering on a high total. Take KC and the Tigers to go over. |
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06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa UNDER 43.5 | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 43 h 55 m | Show |
Week 1 went well with a 3-0 record. I am ready and willing to play for Week 2. Here is a great play for you. Analysis Calgary and Ottawa both lost in Week 1 and both are loathe to start the season 0-2. Both teams opened with low scoring results for their offence. 15 for Calgary and 12 for Ottawa. Typical June results in the CFL for offences that played their QBs for limited minutes in the pre-season and just don’t have the reps to be productive. Under is 5-1 for the Stamps after a loss in their last 6. The RedBlacks under is 14-6 after a loss. So clearly both teams stress defence in the week of prep after a loss. In their last 7 meetings under is 6-1. Ottawa still must start number 2 QB Arbuckle as Masoli still isn’t ready. Arbuckle threw 3 picks against a revamped Alouettes secondary. Ottawa will be missing starting RB Williams and WR Demon is nicked up but should play. It will be another long night for the RedBlacks offence. Calgary QB Maier struggled again against the Lions and will be missing a second O-line starter as Thornton is joining starting LT Coker on IR. Ottawa got 6 sacks against the Alouettes and harassed Fajardo all game. Calgary will also be missing last year’s leading rusher Carey and top receiver Henry is questionable. WR Philpot is still out. It won’t be a fun night for Maier. This will be a typical June CFL matchup with defences dominating and offences suffering from a lack of reps. Take the under for the total. |
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06-14-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Probable pitchers Suarez for the Phillies and Kelly for the D-backs are putting together solid seasons. They just haven’t been able to do it against each others’ teams. It might have to do with the power both teams display at the plate as of late. In the last 15 days, D-backs are 2nd in OPS and 6th in avg. while the Phillies are 8th and 4th respectively over the same time period. Suarez’s last 3 starts against the D-backs has resulted in 13 runs against the Phillies in two of them and 5 in the other; both with totals well over 8.5. Kelly’s last start against the Tigers ended up with a total of 17! The Phillies avg 4.61 runs/9 for this season while the D-backs avg 5.25 runs/9 for this season. Quick math; that’s a total of 9.86 runs/9 when combined. The D-backs average 5.4 runs against LH starters while the Phillies avg. 4.7 runs against RH starters. It all adds up to a total over 10 Take the over for the win. |
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06-11-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Two improving young right-handers square off when the Red Sox meet the Yankees today. Bello had a 2.67 ERA in May: giving up three runs in his last start to the Rays was a recent high. Schmidt struggled at times early in the season but has been solid in his last three starts with a 2.16 ERA. The Yankees still have one of the best pens in the business. Neither team has been hitting well, tied for 21st in the league in OPS in their last seven games. We don't generally think of the two teams as low scoring, but the under has figured in six of eight of Boston's recent games, and in five of six Yankees' starts. the "judge" in not in session today. Let's stick with a low total again. Take the Under this evening. 9*s! |
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06-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 112 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
As expected, we saw a much tighter-checking game three, with significantly fewer shots on both sides. Play-off Bob looked sharp but the Panthers did a much better job in allowing him to see the puck. While the Panthers didn't shut down Vegas's big three in Marchessault, Eichel and Stone, they did at least limit their opportunities to 8 shots on net in total. The Knights are a very well coached team, exceptional at adjusting from game to game, and at limiting scoring on the road. They limited Dallas at home to just 3 goals in 3 games. I expect game four could again be low scoring, especially if Bobrovsky continues to rebound. Hill wasn't quite as sharp in game three. Look for the Knights' oversized defenders to come to his aid this time out. Take Saturday's game to again go under. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat OVER 210.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
The OU lines in this series have gotten lower and lower. They went from 218.5 to 216.5 to 213. Now, the Game 4 line is the lowest yet. Too low. Five of Denver's last eight visits here have still gone over the total. Now trailing 2-1, the Heat have seen the over go 4-1 their last 5, when behind in a series. You saw what happened in Game 2, when they were down 1-0. That game ended up with 219, the highest scoring game of the series. The Nuggets average 115.6 ppg. The Heat are going to have to score to keep up. This game goes OVER! 10* Playoff TOY |
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06-08-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
After a blow-out loss, the Panthers slink back to Florida for game three. Location was highly significant for the Panthers in the regular season: they were a .500 club on the road, and much better at home. The Knights were actually a better on the road than at home this year. They played a very different style, tight-checking and composed, and the totals reflected this. The Panthers are now at critical mass and absolutely must play with more discipline and composure, limiting penalties. They have had a couple of days of soul-searching. Vegas, with solid defense and goal-tending from Hill, has been able to limit the Panthers' quality scoring chances. I believe this will continue on Thursday. I also believe that the Panthers will rebound and find their composure. They'll have the final change, so with the right personnel on the ice, perhaps they can cool off the Eichel, Marchessault, Barbashev line. Look for the return of the Florida forecheck, and a better game from Bobrovsky. The Total has climbed to six. Take the Under on Thursday. 10* Playoff TOY |
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06-06-23 | Mariners v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
Probable pitchers Gilbert (Mariners) and Musgrove (Padres) have had solid results lately. Musgrove, an NL all star last season, is coming back from a toe injury and is rounding back into form. He has surrendered 0 and 1 earned runs in his last two starts. Gilbert has a WHIP of .98 and his ERA has been dropping in May. His last start against the hard hitting Yankees wasn’t great but the two before that were solid. Both pitchers should have success against hitters that are struggling. The Padres have hit .213 against RHP in their last 10 while the Mariners have only hit .197. In terms of defense both teams have kept opponents’ OPS below .700. The Padres' bullpen has been solid, the Mariners', less so but Gilbert should last long enough to keep it from being an issue. The Padres have been under 4 of their last 5 games, and Mariners have been under for 2 of their last 4. Both teams are near the bottom ¼ of the majors in avg and OPS. All of this should go together nicely to keep the total under on Tuesday night. |
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06-05-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
The total in Game One went as expected, with Bobrovsky allowing four goals against for just the first time in eleven games. I doubt that his extended rest will prove beneficial in this series. Let's not forget that in spite of his recent play, Bobrovsky had a pair of five goals-against games early in the Boston series. Adin Hill continued to impress with a .943 save % on 35 shots. On offense, Eichel had a pair of assists in Game one. Stone was held scoreless but had seven shots on net. Tkachuk took himself out of the game for the final five minutes, and was also held pointless. I am still convinced that offenses, especially Vegas' will rule the day in this series. That same 5 1/2 total is readily available. We have a small sample size, but recent games with the Knights as the home side have all gone over. Take the Over again in Game two. |
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06-03-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
We have seen a stack of unders with the Panthers in the postseason, not in small part due to Bobrovsky's remarkable play. It is now ten days since he played, so at what point does rest become rust? He gave up three goals in his last start; I'm wagering that he will do at least the same tonight. The Panthers are 0-5 in Vegas and those games have gone over to the tune of 4-1. The Knights rolled out six goals against a very good defensive team in their last game. The return of Mark Stone and Eichel's first foray into the playoffs have made the Golden Knights an offensive force to be reckoned with. The Golden Knights have had five days rest and are mostly healthy, a rarity in the past two years. Let's not forget that the Panthers were a top six team in offense this season. Look for goal tending on a less heroic scale and a higher final score. Take Vegas and the Panthers to go over the total. |
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06-03-23 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
The Twins and Guardians didn't score many runs on Friday, and with Allen and Gray on the mound we could see a similar result for Saturday. The Under is 7-3 in Guardians games, and consistent (5-0-1) in Allen's starts. Cleveland's rookie lefty is off to a fine season, and off a superlative 7 inning 10 K shutout in his last start. The Twins' right-hander Gray hasn't been quite as good in May as April, but man, has he pitched well at home (3-0, 1.27 ERA) this year. The teams are supported by two of the most effective bullpens in the league. |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 219 | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Both teams can play defense but both can also produce plenty of points. Games at Denver average nearly 228 points. When the Heat played here during the season, the teams combined for 117 in the first half and 243 for the game. That O/U line was 224. Over is 7-3 when Miami played with 2 day's rest and the over is also 6-1 when Denver played with 3 or more day's rest. We'll also point out that 11 of 17 games have topped the total, when the Heat were coming off a double-digit victory. All of the above, go with the over to start June right. |
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06-01-23 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
The Guardians’ Bibee and the Twins’ Lopez are two young pitchers with very solid results lately. Since being called up April 26th star prospect Bibee has been meeting the high expectations the Guardians have had for him. With a sparkling 2.88 ERA and an improving 1.08 WHIP he should have a more impressive win/loss record but he just can’t seem to get any run support from the light hitting Guardians. In his last outing against the Cards he only allowed 2 hits but was only supported with one run and so he took the loss. Lopez has racked up 81 SO and if you take out the one game against the powerful Dodgers his improving ERA in May would be 2.77. Against the Guardians’ 29th best OPS in the majors, Lopez should lock things down well. The Twins are also in the bottom third of the majors for average and OPS. Both bullpens have been excellent lately. In their last 10 Cleveland’s relievers have a 1.31 ERA and in their last 5 it is a miniscule .47. The Twins bullpen has excelled lately too with a 2.23 ERA in their last 10. All of the above, combined with the Guardians’ over/under in their last 10 being 2-8 and the Twins’ over/under being 3-7 in their last 10 (one game was over by .5), point clearly to a low scoring affair. Go with the under to start June right. |
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