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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns UNDER 51.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -109 | 90 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Browns will be leaving everything on the field today as they look to snap a three-game slide. KC enters off a 30-23 home victory over Denver, while Cleveland fell 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week. The teams: After their loss the Pats, the Chiefs come in having won two straight. The Chiefs average 36.2 PPG and they allow 25.6. Patrick Mahomes had four TD passes and an an INT last week. So far the Chiefs have been up to the task each week, but it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly opponent today. The Browns have been trying hard each week, but so far that effort hasn’t translated into many wins or offensive production. Cleveland averages 21.1 PPG and it concedes 26.2. RB Nick Chubb had 65 rushing yards last week. The pick: Note that KC has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as a favorite and in 13 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Cleveland has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home and in three of four already as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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11-01-18 | Raiders v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland comes in off its third straight loss, a 42-28 setback at home to the Colts. Derek Carr and company are just playing for pride at this point. So too are the 49ers, who have lost six straight, most recently an 18-15 setback on the road to Arizona. With nothing to play, on the short week and with each side dealing with injuries, points are going to be at a premium in my opinion. The teams: The Raiders have already shelved RB Marshawn Lynch after he had surgery last week. Oakland also made some moves in its bye week, trading star receiver Amari Cooper to Dallas for a first round pick. Winning this Thursday night game is not of the greatest importance to this team right now. The 49ers season went down the toilet when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injury. The 49ers have seen four of their losses come by eight points or less, a testament their defensive and special teams play. The pick: The 49ers have been solid against the run and the Raiders have pretty much abandoned their ground game. The visitors offense is extremely one dimensional and I think the home side’s talented defensive unit will easily be able to make the adjustments to make things difficult on Carr from start to finish. This one has defensive battle written all over it. Play the under. |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings OVER 53 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans comes in off a 24-23 road win over Baltimore, the league’s No. 1 defense, while Minnesota enters of a 37-17 dismantling of the Jets. These teams battled to a higher-scoring affair in the playoffs last year as well, with Minnesota eventually prevailing 29-24. The teams: The Saints are averaging the second most points in the league, which is a good thing as the defense has regressed from last season, allowing 27.2 PPG. Drew Brees has an insane 13/0 TD/INT ratio and a QBR of 121.6. Minnesota is averaging 25.3 PPG and and while it’s fifth in the league against the run defensively, it’s only 16th against the pass. Clearly that doesn’t bode particularly well facing the red hot Brees and company. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes have seen the “over” go 5-2 in their last seven following a SU victory. Both teams are “firing on all cylinders” offensively. Play the “over.” |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-42 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami has lost three of its last four, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit, while Houston comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won four straight, most recently a commanding 20-7 win on the road over Jacksonville. On the short week, I believe points will be at a premium. The teams: Miami was out gained 457-322 last week against a pretty bad Lions defense. And that doesn’t bode well this week facing a Texans’ defensive unit which is clearly “firing on all cylinders.” It wasn’t a pretty win last week by the Texans by any means, as they’d hold on for a slim 272-259 yardage edge in the victory. The pick: Miami’s only hope on offense is to run the ball today (18th in the league in rushing, but it’s rushed for at least 100 yards in five of seven games.) Dolphins’ QB Ryan Tannehill is injured and Brock Osweiler is “hit or miss.” The Texans have been getting the job done by letting DeShaun Watson “manage” the offense and I don’t think anything will change this week either. Note that Miami has seen the total go “under” in three of its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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10-25-18 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play on the “under.” After a disastrous campaign last year, the Canadiens have been much better this year, most recently coming in off a hard-fought 3-2 win at home over the Flames. They’re 5-1-2 overall, including 4-1 at home, mostly due to vastly improved defensive play and goaltending from Carey Price. The Sabres are 5-4 overall and 2-2 at home, but after a successful 3-2 road trip, including winning back-to-back games, I think Buffalo suffers a predictable “letdown” offensively here. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but the Sabres have seen the total go “under” the number in seven of their last nine following a two games or more unbeaten streak on the road. This number is high, play the “under.”
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10-23-18 | Flames v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Flames fell 5-3 at home to Nashville, but they got their road trip started off on the right foot with a 4-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday night. But with two nights off before back-to-back home games against Pittsburgh, Washington and then a road game at Toronto, it’s definitely not too difficult to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” here. For the Habs they had won three straight behind some rejuvenated defensive play and great goaltending, before then falling apart in a 4-3 OT loss at Ottawa. With an extended road trip started on Thursday, I think Montreal returns to form here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Habs have seen the total go “under” the number in 7 of their last 11 after allowing four or more goals in their previous outing. This number is high, play the “under. |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs UNDER 51 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Tampa’s fallen on hard times since starting out 2-0, coming into this one having lost three straight. Cleveland is 2-1 in its last three, but it got destroyed at home by the high-flying Chargers last weekend. I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “under” between these two hungry teams. The teams: The Browns offense looked terrible last week against a pretty mediocre Chargers’ defense. Baker Mayfield was picked off twice and he only connected on 47.8 percent of his passes. So far he has a 4/5 TD:INT ratio. Mayfield doesn’t have many standout receivers, so look for Cleveland to try and establish the run here so as to alleviate some of the pressure of their rookie pivot. The Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith following a 34-29 setback to the Falcons last Sunday. With the shift in management, I believe we’ll see a marked improvement on that side of the ball this weekend. The pick: As mentioned off the top, I believe the “conditions” are right for a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a wide open “shoot-out.” Play the “under.” |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State UNDER 68 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: While it’s true that these two teams combine for 84 points and 967 yards per game this year, I believe tonight’s contest will fall “under” this sky-high number. Oregon looks primed for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after playing ranked teams in three consecutive weeks, with two of those games going to OT. The teams: Oregon is averaging 43 PPG and it’s limiting opponents to 122.8 rushing yards per game. Also note that the Ducks are averaging 209.5 rushing yards per game themselves. I think we’re going to see a heavy dose of the run tonight. Washington State is averaging 41.8 PPG, as Gardner Minshew has 2,422 yards, 19 TD’s and four INT’s. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oregon has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories, while WSU has seen the total go “under” in four of its last six home games when the total is set between 63.5 and 70. This number is high, play the “under.”
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10-20-18 | Canadiens v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Shockingly I think, Montreal comes in having won four of its last five. It comes in off a strong 3-2 home win over St. Louis and I think it’ll carry over that momentum here, as the Habs continue to get much better defensive and goaltender play from Carey Price. The Sens have won two straight and they’ve scored nine goals in the process. Ottawa though is also getting excellent defensive play and goaltending, having allowed just two goals in the same span. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Montreal has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten after a two games or more unbeaten streak, while Ottawa has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 13 home games when the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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10-19-18 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 218.5 | Top | 120-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Charlotte played from behind all night in its heart-breaking 113-112 home loss to Milwaukee. Kemba Walker scored 41 points for the Hornets in that one but it still wasn’t enough. And with a game at Miami tomorrow night, the Hornets are also get caught “looking ahead” in my opinion as well. Orlando fought tooth and nail all night against the Heat in its opener and managed to pull away for the hard-fought 104-101 victory in the end. But with a game tomorrow night at Philly, I think the Magic also get caught looking ahead here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after allowing 112 points or more in its previous outing. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals UNDER 42.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Two struggling teams collide on a short week on Thursday night and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Denver comes in having lost four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams, while Arizona fell 27-17 in Minnesota to fall to 1-5. The teams: The Broncos gave up 323 yards on the ground in a 34-16 win in New York two weeks ago, only to then allow 270 yards to the Rams on the ground in last Sunday’s setback. QB Case Keenum is nothing more than a clock manager, as the run game, special teams and defense continue to lead the way. Arizona’s offense has been terrible this year, averaging only 13.6 PPG at home so far. Last week the Cardinals looked decent for the first half, before then falling apart in the second. The pick: This one isn’t going to be decided by the QB’s. It’s going to be decided in the trenches, by the defenses and by special teams play. Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 against clubs with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home. Play the “under.” |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 208.5 | Top | 87-105 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics knocked the 76ers out of the second round of the playoffs last year. Each team has a lot to play for this season and there’s a very good chance that this is a preview of what will become the Eastern Conference Finals in about seven months. Each team is now 100% healthy. Philadelphia has an elite core that will no doubt dominate this year, but if the 76ers hope to “take the next step,” their bench will have to step up this season. Philly has lost its opener in each of the last four years, so it’ll be eager here as well to break that string of futility. The Celtics are stacked and they welcome back Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving to an already deep and dangerous line-up. I believe the home side will be out to send a statement to the rest of the Eastern Conference tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine home games as a favorite in the -4 to -7 points range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The 49ers are 1-4 and last place in the NFC West. This is a “must win” game for San Francisco if it hopes to compete in the playoffs. Starting QB Jimmy Garraopolo was lost to injury for the season three weeks ago, so it’s “do or die” tonight. The 2-2-1 Packers have looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers will be eager to bounce back in front of the home town crowd. The teams: San Fran is now led offensively by RB Matt Breida, who is averaging 7.5 yards on 49 carries so far this year. QB CJ Beathard makes his third start after falling 29-27 to the Chargers most recently. Rodgers comes in sporting an elite 10:1 TD/INT and I have a hard time seeing San Francisco slowing him down tonight after the critics have been quick to jump on him after last week’s sub-par effort. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 home games as a favorite of 9 points or more. I’m expecting a wide-open affair, play the “over.” |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 59.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chiefs have started 5-0, but the Pats come in off back-to-back victories and hungry for more after a lacklustre start. New England’s success in the past has had a lot to do with earning the first round bye in the playoffs and if it falls to the Chiefs here, it’s going to have to essentially “run the table” to duplicate that feat against this season. The teams: Patrick Mahomes had 313 yards and an INT in last week’s win over Jacksonville. The Chiefs’ young QB has so far answered every challenge to this point, but he’ll face his most difficult task to date. The Chiefs haven’t been great defensively this season, but so far they haven’t had to be. However, holding Bortles and the Jags to just 20 points last weekend was a big step in the right direction for the unit. New England comes in having won ten straight home games, but the Patriots still won’t want to turn this one into a “track meet” with the high-octane Chiefs. Look for Tom Brady to “control” this one while on offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 16 when the total in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while New England has seen the total go “under” in its last four as a home favorite of three points or less. This number is a little high, play the “under.”
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10-14-18 | Bears v. Dolphins UNDER 43 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -115 | 120 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago enters off an impressive 48-10 home win over Tampa Bay back on September 30th, while Miami comes in off a 27-17 road loss to Cincinnati. I’m expecting a hard-fought, lower-scoring “under” once it’s all said and done. The teams: Chicago is averaging 27.8 PPG, but more impressively is the fact that it’s allowing just 16.2 PPG, ranked third overall. QB Mitch Trubsky had 354 passing yards and six TD’s against the Bucs last weekend, his best ever game as a pro. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Clearly Miami can ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Bears. Miami is averaging only 288 yards per game, ranked 30th in the NFL (19.8 PPG), while allowing 23.4. QB Ryan Tannehill had 185 passing yards, one TD and two INT’s last weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last eight as a favorite and in nine of its last 15 against teams with winning records, while Miami has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last 12 against teams with winning records and in seven of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”
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10-13-18 | Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 95 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Duke is in the basement of the ACC Coastal Division and the last thing it can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the surging Yellow Jackets, who are looking for a third straight win. In my opinion, this number is a little hight. The teams: Duke would actually go on to destroy Georgia Tech 43-20 last year, but I think we’re going to see a much lower-scoring “chess match” on Saturday afternoon. The Blue Devils comes out of their bye week off a loss to VT, a game in which it allowed a season-worst 413 yards, including 332 through the air. Duke would allow 11.86 YPA to the Hokies, which nearly doubled their season mark coming in of 6.74. Good news came on the offensive end though, as starting QB Daniel Jones returned from injury to go 23 of 35 for 226 yards and a TD. The Blue Devils roared out to four straight wins last year as well, before then dropping six straight, so clearly the team will be out to avoid a similar fate this season. After three straight losses, the Yellow Jackets have won two straight, most recently steam-rolling Louisville 66-31 last weekend. The triple-option-offense posted a season-best 542 rushing yards, with QB TaQuaon Marshall going for 175 rushing yards and two TD’s. Note that it was the second straight game in which GT did not commit a turnover. The defense has been opportunistic as well, forcing 13 turnovers over the first six games. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Duke has seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 17 against the conference and in nine of its last 11 off a loss against a conference rival, while GT has seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven after two or more SU victories and in four of its last five off a win against a conference rival. This number is high, play the “under.”
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 53 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Each team comes in off a high-scoring, hard-fought victory last week and I believe they come in “gassed.” The Raiders held on for a 45-42 OT win over the Browns, while the Chargers held on for a 29-27 home victory over a San Francisco team which was using its back-up QB. The teams: The Raiders got a big game from Derek Carr last week, but overall the Oakland offense has been inconsistent this year. Marshawn Lynch though has been a pleasant surprise, as he’d go for 130 yards last week and he now has 300 yards total along with three major scores. The defense has been hit or miss this season as well, looking horrible last week. However, I think it does indeed catch a break here facing what I believe to be a tired Chargers side. LA is averaging 27.8 PPG and it’s allowing 30 PPG. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. The Bolts have never had issues putting points on the board with Philip Rivers under center (he so far has 11 TD’s and two INT’s), but if the team hopes to take “the next step,” clearly its going to have to get things figured out on the defensive side of the ball. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oakland has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while LA has seen the total go “under” seven of its last ten against clubs with losing records. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 49 | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Jacksonville comes in off a 31-12 home win over the Jets last week, while KC enters off a 27-23 road win over Denver. I think these AFC heavyweights “throw down” on Sunday. The teams: So far Jacksonville is averaging only 22 points, while allowing just 14. That’s first in the NFL. However, the Jags’ defense is about to face its stiffest test to date. Blake Bortles look great last week and he’s going to benefit in facing this porous Chiefs’ secondary this afternoon. KC leads the NFL with an average of 36.2 PPG. The Chiefs need to score a lot of points though, as the defense is allowing 28.8 PPG. So far QB Patrick Mahomes has a 14:0 TD/INT. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Jacksonville has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 16 when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while KC has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four off a win against a division rival. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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10-05-18 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose lost 5-2 to Anaheim on Opening Night, an uncharacteristically poor start from goaltender Martin Jones. But I think we’ll see San Jose play a much tighter and more disciplined game here. LA opens its season tonight, looking to get back to the playoffs after getting bounced by Las Vegas in the first round. The teams: San Jose’s Jones will look to bounce back here and he has to be feeling confident as he’s 9-5 with a 2.06 GAA lifetime against the Kings. He’s also 59-50 with a 2.45 GAA lifetime away from friendly confines. LA counters with Jonathan Quick, who finished 33-31 with a 2.40 GAA last year and who is 15-16 with a 2.52 GAA lifetime against the Sharks. The pick: San Jose played terrible defense in its opener, but as I stated off the top, I think the team returns to form here. The stage is set for a classic goaltenders duel on Friday night. Play the “under.”
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10-05-18 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday’s game stayed “under” in the Brewers’ 3-2 win, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these hard-hitting clubs on Friday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side turns to Jhoulys Chacin. The teams: Anderson finished the regular season an unremarkable 7-9 with a 4.55 ERA. Anderson admittedly looked a lot better over September, but I’ll point out that he still owns a poor 5.02 ERA on the road this year. Chacin finished 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA. Chacin started the tie-breaker against the Cubs and while his team came out on top of that one, I think the quick turn-around here isn’t going to help the veteran. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Chacin, so I won’t even bother trying. It’s just a bad spot in m opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League day road games in which it’s an underdog on the +150 to +160 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams had a chance yesterday in their divisional tie-breakers, but each came up short. Colorado lost 5-2 to the Dodgers and it now flies across the country to face the Cubs, who lost 3-1 to the Brewers. The winner of this Wild Card contest will fly to Milwaukee for the NLDS. Both teams struggled to plate runs yesterday and I think that’ll be the case again here as well. The visitors go with Kyle Freeland, while the home side goes with Jon Lester. The pitchers: Freeland finished the regular season 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA. He went 5-0 in September and he’s 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 14 starts since the Mid-Summer Classic. He’s 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA lifetime against Chicago, but that was then and this is now. Lester finished the reg. season 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA. He has won his past three starts and four of his five in September overall. In five career starts against the Rockies he’s 1-3 with a sharp 2.25 ERA.
The pick: I think this situation favors these red hot starters. Look for Freeland and Lester to battle deep and for this one to fall “under” once it’s all said and done. |
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09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals enter off a 38-31 OT road win in Oregon and I think it’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. Notre Dame annihilated Wake Forest 56-27 and it’ll be out to push the pace as well. Note that these teams played to a higher-scoring affair last year as well when Stanford won 38-20. The teams: Cardinal’ QB KJ Costello was 19 of 26 for 327 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s in last week’s win. Stanford is 47th in the country in passing at 264 YPG. RB Bryce Love had 89 yards and a TD last week. The defense has been super, allowing only 13.5 PPG, but clearly that units faces its stiffest test of the season. Notre Dame is 71st in passing and 66th in total offense with 416.5 YPG. Last week Ian Book threw for 325 yards and two TD’s without an INT in the victory over the Deacons. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Stanford has seen the total go “over” the number in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Notre Dame has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four against the Pac 12. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vikes are 1-1-1 and they’ll be laying everything on the line on the short week to try and score the upset here and avoid the 1-2-1 hole. LA is 3-0 and it’ll be out to avoid any letdowns here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. I think points are going to be plentiful. The teams: The Vikes beat the 49ers 24-16 at home in Week 1 and then followed that up with a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Green Bay on the road. But Minnesota comes into this one off a terrible 27-6 home loss to Buffalo, a game in which it was a 17 point favorite. Two critical first half fumbles didn’t help their cause obviously. Another loss here and Minnesota’s season is “on the ropes” essentially. The Rams would love nothing more than to deliver the “knock out blow” as well. LA beat the Raiders 33-13 on the road on MNF in Week 1, then followed it up with a 34-0 destruction of Arizona in Week 2 and then last week it pulled away for the 35-23 home victory over the Chargers. QB Jared Goff had 354 yards and three TD’s last week. The pick: Minnesota can’t sit back and hope things work out. The Vikes’ offense has to produce tonight, or they’re going to get left behind by the high-powered Rams. LA’s greatest strength early it seems is that it can play any style of game. Wide open, defensive battle, either way it’s adapted its style early and done well in every scenario. I’m anticipating a more wide open affair today. Play the “over.” |
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09-27-18 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams, while the home side goes with Jon Lester. The pitchers: Williams is so far 14-9 with a 3.04 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings against the hard-hitting Brewers and he’s now given up two or fewer runs in 11 of his last 12 trips to the hill. Note as well that he’s 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA on the road. Lester is so far 17-6 with a 3.44 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Reds on Saturday and he’ll now look to close out the season on a high note. Note that he’s 8-4 with a 2.92 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League night home games in which the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-26-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. the visitors go with Ross Stripling on the hill, while the home side goes with Zack Greinke. The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-5 with a 2.84 ERA. He comes in off a loss against the Cards on Sunday, but overall the right-hander has been great this year. Note that he has a sharp 1.14 WHIP over 117 innings and he’s been great in all “night” games with a 2.44 ERA. Greinke is so far 14-11 with a 3.21 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been fantastic at home, coming in with a sharp 6-4, 2.42 ERA in friendly confines. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night road games when the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-26-18 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 102 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Wei-Yin Chen has likely been better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s been terrible on the road. The Nationals made an over night pitching change, shelving Roark and going with Kyle McGowin. I think runs will be plentiful here. The pitchers: Chen is so far 6-11 with a 4.66 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 1.62 ERA at home and 1-8 with a 9.29 ERA on the road. McGowin is so far 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA. He was amazing at the Triple-A level, but he was blown up in his first appearance in the big leagues. He draws a more favorable opponent tonight, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie at this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League road day games in which the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-24-18 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Two starters who are likely happy to see the season coming to an end collide in this one. I think runs are going to be plentiful, as the visitors hand the ball to Bryan Mitchell, while the home side goes with Derek Holland. The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 1-4 with a 6.16 ERA. He fell to the Giants at home on Tuesday and he can’t be feeling too confident here either, as note that he’s just 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA in all “night” games this season. Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.57 ERA. The ten year veteran has been serviceable this year, but note that he’s a poor 2-7 with a 4.78 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Two suspect starters here. I think these normally lighter-hitting line-ups take advantage. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide on Monday night and I think points are going to be plentiful. Tampa is 2-0 to open the year with wins over New Orleans and Philadelphia, while Pittsburgh comes in desperate at 0-1-1, with a tie against the Browns, followed by a loss to the Chiefs. The teams: Pittsburgh’s defense is in shambles after allowing 21 points to Cleveland (14 of which came in the fourth quarter), along with 42 to Kansas City. KC posted 326 passing yards and Pat Mahomes had six TD’s. Mahomes was sacked just once and the Steelers defense has just two total turnovers over the first two weeks. While Ben Roethlisberger is down some offensive weapons, he’ll clearly be given the green light today to air the ball out. Tampa QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will look to take immediate advantage of the Steelers’ porous defense, so far he’s completed 78.7 percent of his passes for 819 yards, eight TD’s and one INT over the first two games. DeSean Jackson had five catches and 146 yards with two TD’s in the win over the Saints. The pick: Pittsburgh’s offense is going to have to put some points on the board today, because it knows that its defense isn’t going to stop anyone. This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout. Play the “over.” |
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09-24-18 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon, while the home side goes with Cole Hamels. The pitchers: Taillon is so far 13-9 with a 3.24 ERA. He most recently struck out 11 and gave up four hits over seven scoreless frames in a victory over Kansas City on Tuesday. Note that he’s 8-5 with a 3.23 ERA on the road. Hamels is so far 9-10 with a 3.90 ERA. He’s been exceptional overall for his new team and he’ll now look to close strong. Note that he’s a “lights out” 9-4 with a 2.76 ERA in all “night” games this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League road night games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-23-18 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. I think runs are going to be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with Anibal Sanchez. The pitchers: Nola is so far 16-5 with a 2.44 ERA. He’s been scuffling a bit (for his standards anyways) over the last month, but the right-hander has to be feeling confident here as note that he’s 7-3 with a 2.27 ERA on the road. Sanchez is so far 6-6 with a 3.01 ERA. His career ERA is 4.02 and his career WHIP is 1.31, so this year’s 3.01 and 1.12 are massive improvements. Note as well that he owns a tiny 1.96 ERA in all “day” games this year. The pick: And take it for what you will, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League road day games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers UNDER 44 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off high-scoring affairs last week, but I think points will be at more of a premium in this one. Cincinnati beat Baltimore 34-23, while Carolina fell 31-24 in Atlanta. The teams: So far the Bengals are averaging 34 PPG and allowing 23. The rush defense has been fantastic, ranked fourth overall, so that definitely negates a major strength/focus of the Panthers today. Carolina is averaging 20 PPG and allowing 19.5. The Panthers gave up 442 yards last week, so they’ll be out to atone today in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati has seen the total go “under” the number in its last four as a road dog of three point or less, while Carolina has seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven as a favorite. The conditions are definitely right for a lower-scoring “under.”
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09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 53 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes into your head when you think about these two teams? For me it’s high-flying offenses and very little defensive play. While that is in fact true most weeks, I think these two division rivals will play to more of a lower-scoring affair in Week 3. The teams: The Saints had less than 300 yards offense in the win over the Browns. The offense had 475 yards in a Week 1 loss to the Bucs. Overall though New Orleans can’t be happy with where it sits on either side of the ball. Last year the Saints made big strides because of improved defensive play and the team will have to continue that trend this season if it hopes to once again make a serious playoff run. After coming up short on three occasions in the red zone in a Week 1 loss to the Eagles, the Falcons went four-for-four last week. Overall Atlanta can’t be feeling too bad at this point at where it sits, especially from a defensive stand-point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans has seen the total go “under” the number in three of its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while Atlanta has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 off a divisional contest (and in six of its last nine off a win against a division rival.) This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-22-18 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In my opinion runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Jake Arrieta, while the home side hands the ball to Mike Foltynewicz. The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.77 ERA. He has been far from perfect this year, but I think the veteran has likely been just as good as Philadelphia could have possibly asked for to this point. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.70 ERA on the road. Foltynewicz is so far 11-10 with a 2.90 ERA. After giving up one run over a complete game victory over the Giants, he wasn’t quite as sharp in his latest outing against the Cards. Regardless the southpaw has also exceeded expectations to this point (note that Foltynewicz is 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA in all “day” games.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League day home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-21-18 | Angels v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney, while the home side goes with Gerritt Cole. The pitchers: Heaney is so far 9-9 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Saturday. Over his last 12 innings of work he’s allowed just two earned runs. Cole is so far 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back strong outings and he’ll now be looking to close the regular season strong and improve upon his already impressive 7-2, 2.72 ERA record in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that the Astros have seen the total go “under” the number in ten of their last 14 night American League home games in which they’re a favorite in the -150 to -250 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-21-18 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly these are two very capable starters. This total is set low for a reason, but in my estimation, it’s a little too low. Admittedly these are two of the very best pitchers going head-to-head in this one, but this is also a couple of the hardest-hitting line-ups in the World as well. I look for this one to sneak “over” once it’s all said and done. The pitchers: Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.92 ERA. He went three shutout innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. Sale has looked good early in his limited time and he’ll be worked back into his full load slowly. However, the fact that he could be on a short leash again here definitely is a major factor working in our favor on this play. Bauer is so far 12-6 with a 2.22 ERA. Bauer’s been out since mid-August with a lower-leg fracture. The Indians have already clinched a playoff spot, so the team has little to play for over the final two weeks. Bauer will have a couple of “tune-ups” to get back into form before the post-season. The pick: Neither of these work horse starters is expected to see much time tonight and because of that, I’m going to recommend a play on the “over.” |
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09-21-18 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: These veteran starters have looked brilliant at times this season and very poor in others. I think they’re going to “get the hook early” here though and because of that I expect this total to sneak “over” before it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova. The pitchers: Chacin is so far 14-8 with a 3.54 ERA. He’s been solid across the board, although he does sport a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in all “night” games. Nova is so far 9-9 with a 4.07 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over six innings in a win over these very Brewers on Saturday. Nova’s been better over the last month, but note that he’s still a terrible 3-7 with a 5.12 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: These veterans have admittedly been decent of late, but I’ll caution by pointing that out that the Pirates have in fact seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine National League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is a little low, play the “over.”
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns OVER 39 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: New York is 1-1, looking great in Week 1, but stumbling in Week 2. Cleveland has been very competitive in both of its losses to open the season. These are two young and hungry teams looking for a big win on a short week and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it. The teams: New York has lost five of its last six on the road. QB Sam Darnold so far has 532 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s. The Jets are averaging 105.5 yards on the ground per game. The defense has been a bright spot early in allowing just 18.5 points, but I think that the unit comes in “gassed” on the short week. Cleveland is desperate. The Browns haven’t won a game since Christmas Eve 2016. QB Tyrod Taylor has 443 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s so far. The ground game has been a strength, averaging 135 YPG, with Carlos Hyde leading the charge with 105 yards and two TD’s. Cleveland has been decent defensively as well, allowing 21 PPG. The pick: If not for some “back luck,” the Browns could actually be 2-0 to start the season. I think the home side opens up the playbook today as it lays everything on the line to try and secure the victory on the National stage. Darnold and company won’t be going down without a fight though. Play the “over.” |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 56 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulsa comes in off a 29-20 loss at home to Arkansas State, while Temple comes in off an upset 35-14 road victory over Maryland. When these teams faced off last November 25th, it was Temple that ran away with the high-scoring 43-22 victory. While last year’s total flew well above the number, I think the 2018 match-up will produce a much lower-scoring combined final score. The teams: Tulsa is averaging 26.3 PPG and it’s allowing 28. QB Luke Skipper has 521 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s to this point. He also has 109 rushing yards and another major score on the ground. Shamari Brooks has 310 rushing yards and four TD’s. Last week the Golden Hurricane was out gained 409-339. The Owls opened the season 0-2, before last week’s surprise victory over the Terps. Temple had a ridiculous 429-195 yardage edge in the end. Overall the Owls average 27 PPG and allow just 23. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead has 256 yards on 54 carries. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Tulsa has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six after two or more consecutive SU losses, while temple has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 17 as the favorite. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-20-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In my opinion, runs will be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka. The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 12-4 with a 3.53 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this year, but overall the right-hander is enjoying the best overall campaign of his career. Rodriguez has to be feeling confident in this spot as well as note that he’s 6-1 with a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. Tanaka is so far 12-5 with a 3.47 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back strong outings. Tanka is 7-0 on the road and only 5-5 at home, but he owns a 3.56 ERA in friendly confines and there’s no reason not to think the Asian hurler won’t bring his “A” game here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 American League home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs’ Cole Hamels has for the most part looked fantastic since coming over in a trade from the Rangers. Not perfect though. The Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray has endured up and down season as well. These starters have looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. I think this one will sneak “over” the number in the end. The pitchers: Hamels is so far 9-9 with a 3.67 ERA. He’s been better on the road this year than in home situations, but there’s no question he faces a difficult opponent in a difficult venue tonight (note that the Cubs have seen the total go “over” in ten of their last 17 National League night road games when the line in the contest is set between +150 and -150.) Ray is so far 5-2 with a 4.14 ERA. He’s been much better in the second half of the season after a shaky first, but note that he still owns a poor 5.57 ERA at home this season. The pick: I believe these veteran starters are running out of gas as the season comes down the stretch and I think each will “get the hook early” in this one. As a result, look for this total to sneak OVER once it’s all said and done.
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09-18-18 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, while the home side goes with ace Corey Kluber. The pitchers: Rodon is so far 6-5 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Wednesday. Rodon hasn’t been perfect this year, but his 1.11 WHIP is elite and note that he has a sharp 3.08 ERA in all “night” games as well. Kluber is so far 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over 1.2 innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Monday. It was his worst start of the year, but I don’t think there’s any need to over-react. Clearly the sub-par effort has to be considered an “outlier” at his point. The pick: Note that Kluber is 10-3 with a 2.05 ERA at home this season. And take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine American League night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-18-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this early afternoon Tuesday contest is one of them. I think runs are going to be plentiful this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with JA Happ. The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA. He returns to the starting rotation for the remainder of the season. He’s been more “miss” than “hit” for the Red Sox this year though, a big reason why he was quickly shifted to the bullpen originally. Note that he’s been poor on the road with a 2-6, 5.68 ERA. Happ is so far 16-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Happ’s been as solid as New York could have possibly asked for since coming over from the Jays, but I will point out that he still does own a very pedestrian 4.90 ERA in all home instances this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 12 American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-17-18 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the red hot Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with veteran Jake Arrieta. The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA. He most recently went eight shutout against the Marlins on Wednesday, striking out seven and issuing zero walks. To go along with his solid ERA he also sports an elite 1.12 WHIP along with a strong 175 strikeouts over 167.1 innings. Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA. For the most part the veteran has been as solid as the Phillies could have possibly hoped for this season and Arrieta surely feels confident in this spot as he comes in with a very respectable 4-3, 3.10 ERA at home this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Mets have seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of their last 17 National League road games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins UNDER 48.5 | Top | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Indianapolis fell 34-23 to the Bengals at home in its opener, while Washington took care of business in Arizona 24-6. The Colts hit the road for the first time in a hostile environment this season and I think they’ll have an even more difficult time moving the ball in Week 2. Indianapolis played better defensively than what last week’s score would indicate and I think the unit will have opportunities today as well. This number is high. The teams: Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 319 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. No. 1 RB Marlon Mack was out and he’s questionable for this one as well. WR TY Hilton had just five catches for 46 yards. As mentioned off the top, the defense was decent despite the final score, as one of the TD’s conceded was a defensive one. Washington QB Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD passes last week. The run game stole the show offensively though with 182 combined, led by Adrian Peterson with 96. The defense was outstanding, holding the Cardinals to only 213 yards and 1 of 8 on third down attempts. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indy has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six as a favorite in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills OVER 42.5 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are hungry here after Week 1 setbacks. Both clubs looked horrible defensively last weekend and I think that’ll be the case here again as well. This number is a little low. The teams: The Bills lost 47-3 last week. Josh Allen has been named the starting QB in Week 2 after Nathan Peterman imploded. LeSean McCoy only had 22 yards last week, after finishing with over 1,100 last year. Clearly the only way the Buffalo offense can go is up. The defense gave up 369 yards, including allowing Baltimore to go 6 for 6 in the Red Zone. LA QB Philip Rivers will be looking to exploit the Bills’ weak pass defense. The Chargers were decent defensively last year, but the unit struggled in Week 1 and I think it’ll have its hands full here against a Buffalo offense that’s out to atone itself. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Buffalo has seen the total go “over” in 12 of its last 15 at home. With each side pushing the pace and hungry for a win, I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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09-16-18 | Mets v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob deGrom, while the home side goes with ace Chris Sale. The pitchers: deGrom is so far 8-9 with a 1.71 ERA. The Mets right-hander has been nearly perfect this season and he’s been especially tough on the road where he’s a “lights out” 5-3 with a 1.66 ERA. Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.96 ERA. He returned on Tuesday to throw a scoreless frame against Toronto, giving up one hit and striking out two. Sale’s been out since August 12th, but he’s re-habed successfully, made a successful first appearance and now he’s been given the green light to make his first start. The pick: Note that Sale is 4-2 with a 1.92 ERA at home and 5-1 with a 1.55 ERA in all “day” games. Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten American League home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-15-18 | Hawaii v. Army UNDER 62.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. The teams: Hawaii is already 3-0 with wins over Rice, Navy and Colorado State. The Warriors have defied the odds to this point, most recently smashing Rice 43-29 as a 17 point favorite this past weekend. QB Cole McDonald was 22 of 33 for 319 yards and four TD’s last week, but I think Hawaii finally stumbles here against the Black Knights opportunistic defense and in this difficult road venue. Army is 1-1 after losing to Duke its opener, before then bouncing back with a victory over Liberty. The Black Knights rushed for 449 yards last week and they’ll be looking to duplicate that performance here. The last thing Army wants to do is get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Warriors, so expect the home side offense to try and maintain possession for as long as possible, whenever possible. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Hawaii has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Army has seen the total go “under” in interestingly seven of its last ten games played in the month of September. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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09-15-18 | Liverpool v. Tottenham Hotspur UNDER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: These are two of the top teams in the league. Liverpool has a perfect record after four games, while Tottenham is 3-1. The teams: The attacking trio of Salah, Mane and Firmino is a formidable one for Liverpool. This will be its stiffest test defensively though and I think the team is going to put a concerted effort on that end of the field today after some somewhat sloppy play on that side of the ball to open the campaign. The Hotspur won 3-0 at Old Trafford, before then being humbled 2-1 by Watford. Mauricio Pochettino’s men looked disinterested and inconsistency in form has plagued Tottenham for years now. The pick: These are two dangerous offensive teams, but with each looking for the other to make the first mistake, I’m anticipating a lower-scoring battle today. Play the “under.” |
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09-14-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I believe runs will be at a premium in this National League contest Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty. The pitchers: Buehler is so far 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over six innings (striking out seven) in a loss to Colorado on Saturday. Coors Field though is a difficult one for most pitchers, so I’m not reading too much into one sub-par effort. Note that Buehler still owns an awesome 2.23 ERA in all “night” games. Flaherty is so far 8-6 with a 2.92 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over five innings while striking out six in a loss to Detroit on Saturday. Flaherty looks to get back on track here and improve upon his already impressive 2.68 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well by LA has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 13 National League road night games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-14-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 103 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jays Marco Estrada was dominant in 2015, but it’s now the end of 2018 and the veteran has been sliding ever since. The Yanks’ Masahiro Tanaka has looked downright dominant at times this season, but also plain horrible in others. I think runs are going to be plentiful in this one Friday night. The pitchers: Estrada is so far 3-11 with a 5.32 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with two walks while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Friday. Previous to that though he’d bee shelled for 11 runs over 6.1 innings, spanning two starts. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA on the road as well. Tanaka is so far 11-5 with a 3.61 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the Mariners on Friday, going eight shutout and striking out ten. Tanaka has been considerably more consistent than his inconsistent counterpart this year, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.33 ERA at home this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine American League night home games in which they’re a favorite in the -175 to -275 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis OVER 60 | Top | 22-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The home side will be eager to return to form here after a tough setback at Navy last weekend, eventually succumbing 22-21. Georgia State will be out to score an upset here and to atone for a lacklustre 41-7 loss to NC State last Saturday. This is the first ever meeting between the schools and I think each is going to be a wide open affair. The teams: Georgia State scored the first TD of the game last week, but then it was shut down and outscored by 41 points the rest of the way. QB Dan Ellington threw for 194 yards. In his team’s season opening win over Kennesaw State he threw for 187 yards. But the Panthers defense is atrocious in the early going, most recently allowing the Wolfpack to throw for 426 yards. In fact the secondary returns just one starter. Memphis smashed FCS Mercer 66-14, but it couldn’t hold on to a 21-9 lead over the Black Knights last week. Darrell Henderson had three TD runs, including 78 yard and 59 yard scampers. QB Brady White was 15 of 25 for 145 yards. The defense gave up 264 total yards. Last year the defense was a weak point, ranked 117th in the nation. The pick: The Tigers were particularly poor against the pass last year as well, ranked 122nd by allowing 282.1 YPG. Memphis didn’t have to worry about Army passing, but it’s going to have its hands full today with a Panthers team looking to air it out early and often. This one just screams “shootout.” Play the “over.” |
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