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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 41 | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m a situational handicapper (for the most part) and this is a situationally based pick (note, most of my O/U picks, in every sport, or in fact based upon the situation in which each time finds itself coming in.) Chicago is 1-1 after narrowly edging the Broncos. The Bears looked inept vs. the Packers in Week 1 though. Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky has been shaky at best and he’ll be out to “right the ship” in this favorable matchup. Trubisky and the offense are going to come out and push the pace from start to finish as they look to take advantage of this suspect Skins secondary. The pick: And it’s do or die essentially for Washington, as an 0-3 hole essentially means that it will already miss the playoffs. While the defense definitely has more questions than answers, note though that the Skins have in fact been decent on the offensive end early, averaging 24.0 PPG, which ranks tenth overall (QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and zero INT’s.) Chicago’s defense is impressive, but I believe this games flies over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Bears/Redskins. |
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09-23-19 | Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Two competent starters who have had more difficult than expected seasons collide on Monday night and in my opinion, I believe each will work deep into this one. And as a result, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Blake Snell. The pitchers: Chacin (3-11, 5.66 ERA) has struggled vs. the Rays throughout his career, but he enters off a decent start and I look for the veteran to carry that momentum over here. Snell (6-7, 4.19) is 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA in nine career starts vs. Boston. The pick: The Red Sox have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Rays are still in a fight for the Wild card. But in this contest, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Red Sox/Rays. |
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09-22-19 | Bengals v. Bills OVER 42 | 17-21 | Loss | -109 | 148 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: These two teams enter hungry. That’s where the similarities end though, as Cincinnati is essentially in a “must win” scenario at 0-2, while the Bills are looking to build off their improbable 2-0 start. Neither team will be lacking for motivation here and as such, I’m expecting this contest to be extremely wide open. After a tight 21-20 setback in Seattle and then a 41-17 loss to San Francisco, the pressure is clearly on Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton to step up and deliver here. The pick: The Bills have gotten great play on both sides of the ball as well, especially from QB Josh Allen, who led his team on four TD drives in their Week 2 victory against the Giants. From a situational stand point, I think it definitely sets up as a “shootout,” but also note that the Bengals have seen the total go over the number in six of their last seven as a road dog of seven points or less, while Buffalo has seen the total soar over in nine of its last 12 at home. This number is a litre low. 8* play on the over Bengals/Bills. |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 148 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which have gotten out to shaky starts go head to head on Sunday afternoon and because of that, I expect more of a higher-scoring shootout than a lower-scoring battle. Oakland comes in off a 28-10 loss at home to Kansas City and it hits the road for the first time this year. Minnesota enters off a sloppy performance/loss in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook was a bright spot for Minnesota last week, finishing with 154 rushing yards. The pick: Oakland heads out on a lengthy road trip, as its only home game in the next five weeks is in London. The Raiders have been getting great production from other members as well, including WR Tyrell Williams, who has 151 yards receiving and two TD’s so far. The Raiders have to be feeling good with RB Josh Jacobs as well, who has 184 rushing yards and two TD’s. The passing defense looked poor vs. Patrick Mahomes though and it’ll be tested again this week by the Vikes’ Kirk Cousins. These two starting QB’s (David Carr and Cousins) both have something to prove this year and after suspect starts to the 2019/20 season. When you add it all up, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one. 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Raiders/Vikings. |
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09-21-19 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico OVER 68 | Top | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 121 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the annual Rio Grande Rivalry and I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Lobos are 40-14-3 at home against NMSU in Albuquerque. But note that the Aggies have won two of the last three in this series. With neither side lacking for confidence or motivation, this one definitely has more the feel of a wide open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” New Mexico State is led by Tevaka Tuioti, who was 6 for 13 for 132 yards vs. Notre Dame, and who is a legitimate dual threat QB. The pick: These two teams hate each other and I believe that extra factor is going to help in contributing to a higher-scoring shootout. Note as well though that New Mexico State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight after a loss by 17 points or more, while New Mexico has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a shade low. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER New Mexico State/New Mexico. |
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09-20-19 | Rangers v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 31 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Minor, while the home side counters with Mike Fiers. The pitchers: Minor (13-9, 3.33 ERA) has pitched four times in Oakland in his career and he’s gone 1-2 with a 3.95 ERA. Fiers (14-4, 4.09) is 8-1 in Oakland this year, and 12-3 at the Coliseum for his career. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 31 this year when on the road and the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly, 17 of 21 games that it’s played on a “Friday” this year (does that matter tonight? Well..it doesn’t hurt!) This number is indeed a bit high in my opinion, play the under. 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rangers/As. |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Not known for their offensive explosiveness for the most part, I do in fact believe that this game’s total will fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Neither team has the luxury to take the foot off the gas tonight and just hope things work out. The Titans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. Jacksonville came “oh so close” to an upset in Houston last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. While both of these team’s games vs. each other went “under” the number last year, I believe the overall conditions that each side finds itself in will finally lend itself to more of a high-scoring shootout. The pick: Indeed, despite both game’s totals going under the number last year, five of the last seven between these clubs have gone over the number. Tennessee looked great in its Week 1 demolition of the Browns, but then it had a letdown in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Colts. RB Derrick Henry ate up the Jags last year and he had 81 yards and a TD in last week’s defeat as well. Jacksonville is banged up across the board, but rookie QB Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be lacking for motivation either. When you add up all of the above factors, this number is low in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Titans/Jags. |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane OVER 60.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the AAC Opener for both teams and I’m expecting a shootout. Houston is also looking to bounce back from a loss last week. Coach Dana Holgorsen likes to push the pace with an up-tempo air-raid blitz and his counterpart Wilie Fritz, who likes to mix things up, is going to have to match pace in my opinion. Houston has faced two decent teams in Oklahoma and Washington to open the season and QB D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet to this point. But the versatile back is poised for a monster game here in my opinion, as remember that the Cougars had the No. 16 passing offense in the nation last year. Tulane’s pass defense has been decent, but I look for King and company to be committed to the pass today from start to finish. The pick: Tulane has gotten great play from QB Justin McMillan as well, who has 424 yards and two TD’s through the air and a team-high 154 yards and three TD’s on the ground as well. Keep your eyes on Green Wave receiver Darnell Mooney, who has 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD in the past three games. So far the Cougars’ defense hasn’t fared so well (stiff competition as noted above), but Tulane won’t be rolling over here either as it tries to take advantage of some big holes on the Houston defense. I expect a couple of defensive TD’s along the way as this total flies over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Houston/Tulane. |
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09-19-19 | Padres v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi, while the home side goes with Jordan Lyles. The Padres broke a six-game losing streak with a 2-1 win last night, but the Brewers are still surging towards a wild card spot. Note that the loss was just the second in the Brewers last 13 games overall. The pitchers: Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA) was shelled for eight runs over 3 2/3’s innings in a 10-8 loss to the Rockies on Friday. Lyles (11-8, 4.25) is 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Friars. The pick: After yesterday’s “duel,” the conditions now definitely seem right for more of a “slug-fest” on Thursday afternoon. This number is a tad low in my opinion. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Padres/Brewers. |
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09-18-19 | Royals v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: While neither starter instils a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is too high. These teams went “under” the number last night as well and all signs point to another lower-scoring affair on Wednesday afternoon in my opinion. The offensively challenged visitors hand the ball to Danny Duffy, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey. The pitchers: Duffy (6-6, 4.55 ERA) enters throwing his best of the entire season, off back-to-back gems by allowing just two runs and six hits over 12 frames. Bailey (13-8, 4.76) started the season on the Royals roster, and since coming over to Oakland he’s gone 6-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 11 starts. He’s 1-0 with 4.50 ERA lifetime vs. KC. The pick: The A’s have a two game lead over Tampa and 2.5 game lead over Cleveland for the AL Wildcard. Expect these ex-teammates to go deep and for this total to stay well below the posted number. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under KC/As. |
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09-17-19 | Mariners v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 104 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: While neither starting pitchers instills much confidence, I still believe this number is too high. The visitors go with Marco Gonzales, while the home side counters with Mitch Keller. The pitchers: Gonzales (15-11, 4.30 ERA) gave up two runs over seven innings in a 5-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday. Keller (1-4, 8.29) has clearly struggled in his rookie year, but there’s no question that he’s been much worse on the road (11.14 ERA), than at home (4.16.) The pick: Both teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but the numbers point otherwise in this particular interleague contest, as note that Seattle has in fact seen the total dip under in nine of 15 interleague games this season, while Pittsburgh’s seen the total go under in four of five after allowing eight runs or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high. *10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER M’s/Pirates. |
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09-16-19 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams played to higher-scoring slug-feats on Sunday, but I believe that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The visitors go with Reynaldo Lopez, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios. The pitchers: Lopez (9-13, 5.35 ERA) is 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA in six career starts vs. the Twins. Berrios (12-8, 3.63) is the difference maker for me here, as he’s 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the White Sox, including 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four outings this year. The pick: Minnesota took two of three from the Indians and with a sweep of the Sox on its final home stand, it can wrap up the division title. I have a hard time seeing Chicago putting many runs on the board today and as a result, look for this total to stay well under the number. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under White Sox/Twins. |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 77 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland looked better than expected in Week 1 by besting the Broncos 24-16 on Monday night. The Chiefs rolled through the Jags 40-26, but I think they’ll have a more difficult time in their second straight road game to open the season. Note that the win over Jacksonville came at a price as well as WR Tyreek Hill was lost to injury and NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury. It all adds up to a more conservative style from the visitors explosive offense in my opinion. The pick: Oakland got big production from its run game in Week 1, with Josh Jacobs finishing with 85 rushing yards and two TD’s. I look for the improved Raiders defense to play a big part in the outcome of this one as well. And additionally note that KC has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 after plaint its previous game on the road, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten as a home dog. The overall conditions/factors definitely point to the under as the correct call on the total in this one. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under Chiefs/Raiders. |
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09-15-19 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in this AL contest on Sunday afternoon and I believe that runs will be plentiful. The visitors go with Randy Dobnak, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber. The pitchers: Dobnak (0-1, 2.25 ERA) makes a spot start here for Jose Berrios. He’s done decently already vs. the Indians on two occasions this year, but that was then and this is now. I think the rookie takes a predictable step back today in this pressure filled afternoon contest. Bieber (14-7, 3.17) is 3-0 with a 3.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Twins. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Bieber, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. The pick: Cleveland lost both games of yesterday’s double-header and its bid for a fourth consecutive AL Central title is in jeopardy. The Twins on the other hand are inching closer to their first division title since 2010. In my opinion, this one sets up as a high-scoring “slug-fest” on Sunday afternoon. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the over Twins/Tribe. |
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09-14-19 | Marlins v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -111 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this number is a shade low. The visitors go with Robert Dugger, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner. The pitchers: Dugger (0-2, 4.29 ERA) has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, having allowed 11 walks in 21 frames of work thus far. Bumgarner (9-8, 3.77) most recently allowed two runs over six innings in a 4-2 loss to Miami earlier in the year. The pick: The Giants won 1-0 last night, but I expect much more of a “slug-fest” on Saturday (note as well that the numbers back us up, as Miami has seen the total go over the number in 21 of 35 vs. southpaws this season already, while SF has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six after shutting out it opponent in its last game. This number is low. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on on the over Marlins/Giants. |
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09-14-19 | TCU v. Purdue OVER 51 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -112 | 57 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: TCU comes out of its bye week and I look for it to match pace with the home side. The Horned Frogs won’t be taking anything for granted after having lost three of their last four on the road dating to last year. TCU is 1-0 after beating up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. So far the Horned Frogs have averaged 200 yards per game and allowed just seven points. But clearly TCU is in for a much stiffer test this evening. The pick: Purdue has won four of its last five home games. The Boilermakers have gotten 932 yards and nine TD’s from QB Elijah Sindelar and I look for the senior QB to open up the playbook tonight as well. He’ll have to, as note that Purdue is allowing 29 points and 447.5 YPG on the defensive side of things. TCU comes in rested and focused and knows it can’t rest on its heels if it has any hopes at an upset. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely feel this number is a little low. 10* totals play on OVER TCU/Purdue. |
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09-13-19 | Ottawa v. BC OVER 50 | Top | 5-29 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the opener of a two game series between the teams, with the second one heading back East next weekend. Because of that, I believe each opens up the playbook on the West Coast and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Ottawa won’t be lacking for motivation that’s for sure after falling 46-17 to last place Toronto. Ottawa is just 3-8 overall and over its last three games it’s been outscored 107-42. One bright spot last week for the Redblacks was the play of QB Jon Jennings, who had 327 yards vs. the Argos. BC is just 1-10 and on a current seven-game losing streak. There’s no bigger disappointment in the entire league than these two teams. The pick: Over the last three years, the over is 3-1-1 between the clubs. The players on both sides are now playing for a job for next season and because of that, I look for this total to fly over the posted number. 10* CFL TOTAL OF MONTH on over Ottawa/BC. |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest UNDER 67 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m making a play on both the side and the total in this game. If you’ve bought this package, then you know that I’m on the Tar Heels with the points here. After starting the year 2-0, I think that Wake is going to take a step back here. The Demon Deacons have a “cream puff” next weekend vs. Elon, before a gruelling upcoming schedule vs. Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and NC State. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” The pick: UNC has been better than advertised at 2-0 and I expect the visitors to once again lean heavily on RB Javonte Williams, who so far has 178 yards over two games. Additionally note that UNC has seen the total go under in its last five games after a win by six points or less in two straight games. This number is a shade high. 10* play on the under UNC/Wake. |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 49.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game early on for these NFC South opponents and because of that, I believe we’re going to see an all out war from start to finish. This game on the short week just screams defensive battle to me. The Bucs looked inept in their 31-17 loss to the 49ers. Carolina was on its heels early and it could never recover in its 30-27 setback to the Rams. With both divisional teams at 0-1, there’s no question that this sets up as a very important early game for both clubs. The pick: Cam Newton and Jameis Winston both looked shaky in their respective openers. With both teams looking to protect the ball, to limit turnovers and costly mistakes, from a situational stand point everything clearly points to a lower-scoring affair, but note that the Bucs have seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in five of its last six after a loss by six points or less. This number is a little high. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under. |
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09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 49.5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams. It’s a big game for many of the individual players today as well. Antonio Brown was cut by the Raiders and he just signed with the Patriots. He’ll be along side the controversial Josh Gordon now. Of course, AB is playing against his former team for the first time as well. The Steelers won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously facing AB and their most heated and hated rival. Does anyone have more to prove on the field than Ben Roethlisberger? This is also the nationally televised contest, which puts added pressure on everyone. There’s no lack of experience or talent on the field of play today, but I believe the conditions are right for these two “under the radar” defense to “steal the show” in Week 1. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 15 on the road, while NE has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. This one has low-scoring battle written all over it. Play the under. Pittsburgh Steelers/NE Patriots UNDER 9* play |
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08-31-19 | Syracuse v. Liberty OVER 66 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orange won’t be taking anything for granted in Week 1 after finishing 10-3 last year (6-2 in the ACC). Syracuse was invited the Camping World Bowl where it defeated WVU 34-18. The Flames finished 6-6 in 2018 and they still weren’t invited to go Bowling. Clearly Liberty will be out to score an early upset here after getting snubbed last season. The pick: The Orange were dominant defensively last year, but the unit has suffered turnover in the offseason. Syracuse has to deal with Maryland before a date vs. the Tigers, so I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring shootout (Note as well that the Orange have seen the total fly over the number in four of their last five as a road favorite.) This number is a little low. Syracuse/Liberty OVER 10* play |
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08-30-19 | Purdue v. Nevada OVER 58 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 101 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: I believe these non-conference opponents open up the playbook on Friday night and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Purdue went 6-7 in 2018, while Nevada was 8-5. But the Boilermakers overcame an 0-3 start to win six of their final nine games. The Wolfpack also started slowly by going 3-3, but they went 4-2 the rest of the way. The pick: Both teams return plenty of starters from last season and each will clearly be looking to “hit the ground running” in 2019 after their respective slow starts last year. In the end Nevada scored 25 or more points in nine of its 13 games, while Purdue would average just under 30 PPG last season. For all the situational reasons listed above, play the over. Purdue/Nevada OVER 10* play |
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08-29-19 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 48.5 | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 149 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Utes are favored to win the Pac-12 Championship tho shear, with 15 returning starters from last years team. The Utes get the job done with a suffocating defense which has all four defensive linemen returning from a rushing defense which led the conference with just 1003 YPG. The Utes also have an experienced offense, with QB Tyler Huntley back under center, along with RB Zack Moss. The pick: BYU had a 20-point third-quarter lead over Utah a year ago, but it wound up losing 35-27 in the end. The Cougars have lost eight in a row in this series. BYU is once again led by QB Zach Wilson. The secondary for the Cougars took a hit with both Chris Wilcox and Troy Warner injured in camp. BYU has to keep Utah honest, so look for the home side to try and establish its run game throughout. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it. Utah/BYU UNDER 10* play |
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08-28-19 | Rays v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Astros in their complete destruction of the Rays last night and I expect another high-scoring affair tonight. Perhaps not so lop-sided this time around though. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Yarbrough, while the home side counters with Gerrit Cole. The pitchers: Yarbrough (11-3, 3.29 ERA) has been sharp of late, going 1-0 with a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Yarbrough, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Cole (15-5, 2.75) has been brilliant over the last couple of months, going 11-0 with a 1.84 ERA. It’s VERY interesting to note though that he’s 0-2 with a 3.84 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa Bay. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 19 already this year on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Houston has seen the total go over in four of its last five after a win by five or more runs. This number is a little low. Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays OVER 10* play |
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08-28-19 | Apoel Nicosia v. Ajax Amsterdam UNDER 3.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second leg of the Champions League playoff between APOEL Nicosia and host Ajax Amsterdam. And note, I believe it’ll be very similar to the first match in Cyprus, which saw these teams draw 0-0. The Dutch side had its hands full vs. the Cypriot team in the first match, and it will again here as well (note that the hosts actually have a poor home record, winning just once in five home matches in Champions League play.) The pick: So APOEL can not be taken lightly here at all, as it’s won four of its last six games in Champions League action. But note that the Cypriots have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten road Champions League matches. Ajax’s recent poor home record, combined with APOEL’s recent form makes the “under” the correct call in this one. Ajax Amsterdam/Apoel Nicosia UNDER 10* play |
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08-26-19 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: True that Padres starter Eric Lauer is 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA in six career starts vs. the Dodgers, but I think he’ll finally have his hands full tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Dustin May. The pitchers: May (1-2, 4.26) faced the Padres on August 2nd at Dodger Stadium and he was shelled for four runs off nine hits over five innings. Lauer (6-8, 4.47 ERA) is 8-15 with a 5.47 ERA career record vs. the rest of the league. Suffice it to say, I believe this lop-sided trend of domination vs. the Dodgers comes to a predictable end here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers have seen the total go over the number in 15 of 19 this year on the road when the total is between 8 and 8.5, while the Padres have seen the total fly over in 21 of 18 this season at home with a total in the 8 or 8.5 range. This number is low, play the over. LA Dodgers/San Diego Padres OVER 10* play |
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08-25-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yanks won the opener 10-2, but the Dodgers took the second game 2-1. I believe we’ll see a similar final combined score as what we saw last night though once it’s all said and done with the Yankees’ Domingo German facing the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. The pitchers: German (16-3, 4.15 ERA) enters off a rare poor performance, allowing six runs over six innings to the A’s. German though has been the model of consistency and clearly there’s no need to hit the panic button after one lousy outing. Kershaw (13-2, 2.71) owns a 0.90 ERA over 20 innings faced vs. the Yanks (although he doesn’t have a decision yet.) So far all 22 of his starts have been six innings or more, with 19 of them as quality (and note that he hasn’t thrown more than 101 pitches in any outing.) The pick: I think German bounces back and there’s also no reason not to think that Kershaw can continue his resurgent season in friendly confines. When you add it all up, it makes this total a little high in my opinion. NY Yankees/LA Dodgers UNDER 10* play |
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08-25-19 | Newcastle United v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -167 | 42 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Suffice it to say, I’m expecting some goals to find the back of the net in this one. The Spurs welcome back Heung-min Son to the mix as well today, after taking four points from Villa and City. The pick: But Newcastle clearly won’t be going down without a fight here after a disappointing start to the campaign. The Magpies have lost both of their opening matches, including a 3-1 loss to Norwich City. Newcastle will once again have its hands full with the hosts aggressive attack, as its three-at-the-back system was clearly exposed last weekend. Newcastle boss Steve Bruce is on the hot seat already, meaning the visitors have to push the pace as well today. When you add it all up, I look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. Tottenham/Newcastle OVER 10* play |
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08-24-19 | Colorado Rapids v. Real Salt Lake UNDER 3.25 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Real Salt Lake had its five match unbeaten streak ended with a 2-0 loss to LAFC last time out and clearly it’ll be out to atone for that. Colorado won’t be lacking for motivation here though after losing three of the last four in this series, as well as dropping three and drowning once in its last six overall. The pick: These teams have a history of playing to higher-scoring affairs, but the injuries to Real Salt Lake are real at the moment: Jordan Allen out with a knee injury; Tony Beltran out with knee injury and Nick Besler out with a foot injury and Aaron Herrera out after picking up a red card last match. With Colorado content to play a “war of attrition,” and considering the injuries to the home side, I believe this one falls well below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Real Salt Lake/Colorado Rapids UNDER 10* play |
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08-24-19 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 9 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: While neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is high. After the Marlins’ 19-11 slug-fest victory yesterday, I think the stage is set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto. The pitchers: Efin (7-11, 4.57 ERA) is 3-2 with a 4.37 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Marlins. Yamamoto (4-4, 4.31) struck out a career-high nine batters over six innings in a no-decision to the Rockies on Sunday and he’s 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies this year. The pick: Note that Philly slugger Bryce Harper remains out of the line-up, as he’s expecting a new child. I think these hungry starters throw deep and I look for this total to indeed sneak under once it’s all said and done. Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 10* play |
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08-23-19 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 42 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has his team 2-0 in the preseason after going 3-5 under his tenure over the previous two seasons. Matt Patricia is now just 1-4 in the preseason as head coach of the Lions after starting the season 0-2. With most of Detroit’s starting offense sitting this one, I have a hard time seeing the Lions getting much production tonight. Detroit starting QB Matthew Stafford is expected to see extreme limited time and the back-ups for the home side have so far struggled to find consistency (original backup Tom Savage is injured with concussion and David Fales and Josh Johnson have both been poor thus far.) The pick: Buffalo has gotten strong play from its QB’s (Josh Allen, Matt Barkley), but I’m expecting a more conservative game tonight from the visitors (keep your eyes on Buffalo RB’s Tyree Jackson, LeSean McCoy and TJ Yeldon. The stage is set for a defensive battle in my opinion, as I’m expecting this total to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the under Bills/Lions. |
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08-19-19 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: While Ivan Nova hasn’t had a great overall season for the White Sox, he’s been a bit better of late. Kyle Gibson though is a big reason why his team will be in the postseason this year. Admittedly neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, but I still believe this number is high. The pitchers: Nova (8-9, 4.51 ERA) has actually won four of his last five stars and he enters off a 4-1 complete-game effort over the hard-hitting Astros on Tuesday, allowing four hits and one unearned run. Over his last two starts Nova has conceded nine hits, three walks and an unearned run. Gibson (11-5, 4.28) gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. The pick: Note that Nova is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA in six career appearances vs. the Twins as well, while Gibson is 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the White Sox. Expect these two hungry starters to battle deep. 10* TOTAL OF WEEK on under White Sox/Twins. |
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08-17-19 | Lions v. Texans UNDER 42.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 127 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: These clubs have been practicing against each other all week and I believe that’s going to lead to some heated rivalry in this Week 2 action. Detroit got humiliated at home in Week 1 by the Patriots and they’ll be out to atone for that performance. Especially on the defensive side. In all the Lions offense mustered just a field goal in last week’s loss and I think the unit will have a difficult time moving the chains this weekend as well. Since Matt Patricia took charge in Detroit the Lions are now just 1-4 SU/ATS. Once again starting QB Matt Stafford is expected to see limited to no tie in this one. Houston lost in Green Bay last week. The Texans will be amped up here to play their first game in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Houston won’t be playing much (if any) of starting QB DeShaun Watson today either. The Texans are down to third string QB right now after AJ McCarron went down with a thumb injury. This one has “chess match” written all over it. Detroit Lions/Houston Texans UNDER 10* play |
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08-17-19 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester City OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: EPL defending champ Man City took care of business in a 5-0 win over West Ham in east London last weekend, instantly pushing them to top spot on the board. Clearly Manchester City will want to keep the foot on the gas here and its place in the rankings. Tottenham came out slow last week, but a late marker by Harry Kane would guide the home team to a 3-1 win over Aston Villa in the end. The pick: The Spurs have their work cut out for them here at the Etihad and certainly “sitting back” and waiting for the game to come to them isn’t a strategy that’s going to work vs. Man City, who didn’t even break a sweat vs. the new look Hammers last weekend. With both teams pushing the pace, this one flies over sooner than later in my opinion. Tottenham/Man City OVER 10* play |
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08-15-19 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 10 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams face off against two hungry starters and in my opinion, it’s going to be these capable hurlers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Marcus Stroman gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side goes with Julio Teheran. The pitchers: Stroman (6-11, 3.20 ERA) has faced the Braves twice and he’s gone 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs and struck out nine over seven innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Friday. Teheran (7-7, 3.35) enters on top form, going 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA over his last seven starts. The pick: Atlanta has won the first two games of this series and all signs point to a battle in the finale as well. This number is high, play the under. Atlanta Braves/NY Mets UNDER 10* play |
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08-15-19 | Eagles v. Jaguars OVER 34.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an interesting Week 2 preseason matchup, as it pits Jacksonville’s newly acquired QB Nick Foles vs. his former team in which he won a Super Bowl with and was named the MVP in 2018. Foles is only expected to see limited time today, as is Eagles’ starter Carson Wentz, but there’s still going to be a very competitive atmosphere surrounding this contest. And in my opinion, that’s going to lead to this one to be more of a high-scoring “shootout” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” The pick: The Jaguars went through the motions in their 29-0 Week 1 loss in Baltimore, electing to sit out 30 players in that one. Jacksonville’s full compliment is expected to see action at some point today thug, so look for the home side offense to be much better this time around. When you add it all up, I do indeed feel that this number is a little low. Jacksonville Jags/Philadelphia Eagles OVER 10* play |
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08-13-19 | Red Sox v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Considering the talent level between the starting pitchers this evening, I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. Boston goes with ace Chris Sale, while Cleveland hands the ball to Mike Clevinger. The pitchers: Sale (6-11, 4.41 ERA) enters on top form, having struck out 13 over eight scoreless in a win over the Angels on Thursday. Clevinger (7-2, 3.02) most recently allowed two runs over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Twins on Thursday. The pick: Boston will essentially have to run the table now at any shot of defending its crown. One game at a time I guess. But after last night’s 6-5 Indians win, I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a “duel” this evening. This number is a little high. Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians UNDER 10* play |
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08-12-19 | Reds v. Nationals UNDER 10.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Cincinnati lost 6-3 to the Reds on Sunday afternoon, while Washington pulled away for a 7-4 victory at the Mets. For a number of different reasons though, I think that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The Reds turn to Anthony DeSclafani, while the home side goes with Erik Fedde. The pitchers: DeSclafani (7-6, 4.20 ERA) gave up four runs over six innings in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. Previous to that start though he’d allowed three or fewer earned runs over a seven outing stretch (note that he’s a solid 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA in all night games.) Fedde (2-2, 4.20) comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Giants last Monday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here, going six scoreless vs. the Giants. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 National League road games in which the total is set between 10 and 10.5, while the Nationals have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten home games when the total falls in the same range. This number is high. Cincinnati Reds/Washington Nationals UNDER 10* play |
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08-11-19 | A's v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the rubber match of a three-game series and I believe that because of the level of competency on the mound between the starting pitchers tonight, that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Bassitt, while the home side counters with Lucas Giolito. The pitchers: Bassitt (7-5, 3.80 ERA) has posted back-to-back quality starts, but has earned a no-decision each time for his effort. Clearly Bassitt won’t be lacking for motivation here. Giolito (12-5, 3.44) snapped a five start winless skid with a quality start and victory over Detroit on Monday. The pick: Note that in three career starts vs. the White Sox, Bassitt has walked five and struck out 15 spanning 17 innings. Giolito earned a win over the A’s in his only start vs. them, allowing four runs over eight innings. With each of these competent hurlers fighting deep into the latter frames, look for this total to stay well below the posted number. Oakland A's/Chi White Sox UNDER 10* play |
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08-10-19 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Mike Soroka is putting together a fantastic rookie campaign for the Braves, as he’s played a big part in the team’s success this year. Sandy Alcantara has been more “miss” than “hit” for the Fish this season and I believe he’ll have his hands full here vs. the hard-hitting visiting side. When you add it all up, I believe this number is a little low. The pitchers: Soroka (10-2, 2.45 ERA) most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Monday. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Soroka, other than his low strikeout numbers (97 K’s in 121 frames). Alcantara (4-10, 4.50) enters off a decent start vs. the Mets on Monday, allowing two runs over five innings in a no-decision. Despite the effort though, note that Alcantara still has a poor 7.21 ERA since the All-Star break. The pick: Also note that Alcantara is just 2-8 with a 5.94 ERA in all “night” games this year. Take it for what you will as well, but ATL has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten National League road games with a total set at either 8 or 8.5 and as a -125 to -175 favorite. Everything points to a “slug-fest.” Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play |
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08-08-19 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 103 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Jon Gray has been solid for the Rockies this year, but I still think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Eric Lauer for the most part has struggled for the Padres this year and I think he’s going to get the hook early here as well. The pitchers: Gray (10-7, 4.03 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Padres throughout his career, but he comes in off a terrible outing vs. the Giants on Saturday, giving up four runs off nine hits and a walk over four innings. Lauer (6-8, 4.43) is 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.488 WHIP and .364 OBA in four career starts. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while SD has seen the total soar over the number in 14 of 21 at home this year when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. Expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres OVER 10* play |
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08-08-19 | Patriots v. Lions UNDER 36.5 | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 72 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit head coach Matt Patricia was the Pats defensive coordinator, but his first year with the Lions didn’t go as he planned. Patricia is on “hot seat” as he enters the 2019/20 season and I believe he’s going to have his team ready to play vs. his former boss and the defending Super Bowl champs. Note that when the Patriots came to Detroit in Week of the regular season last year, Detroit pulled away for an impressive 26-10 victory, as the Lions held the Pats to 12 first downs and 209 yards. The pick: New England isn’t expected to play any of its star players on either side of the ball. Detroit has many new faces on both sides of the ball, which leads to chemistry issues obviously. In this meaningless contest, I believe the offenses take a back seat and that the defensive units become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is high. NE Patriots/Detroit Lions UNDER 10* play |
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08-07-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Yamamoto, while the home side goes with Steven Matz. The pitchers: Yamamoto (4-2, 3.94 ERA) was blasted for four runs over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Twins in his last outing. Matz (6-7, 4.60) was shelled for five runs over three innings in an 8-4 loss to the Bucs in his last start. The pick: New York is on a mission now as it looks to complete the four-game sweep. Clearly the Marlins won’t be going down without a fight. Considering the starting pitchers and the above situational/motivational factors, I think this one flys over the posted number sooner, rather than later. NY Mets/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play |
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08-03-19 | Reds v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Two veteran hurlers with chips on their shoulders go head-to-head in this interesting NL matchup on Saturday night and in my professional opinion, runs are definitely going to be at a premium. The Reds’ trot out the newly acquired Trevor Bauer, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Bauer (9-8, 3.79 ERA) scuffled in his last start for his old team, giving up a career high seven runs over four innings, but terrible performances like that have truly been few and far between for the big right-hander. Note that Bauer has a 1.21 WHIP and 185:63 K:BB through 156.2 innings this year. Keuchel (3-4, 3.86) enters off a loss vs. the Nationals on Monday, allowing four runs over six innings. Keuchel though has been at his best at home this year, so far posting a solid 2.66 ERA to this point. The pick: I believe the stage is set for a “duel.” This number is high, play the under. 10* NL 2ND HALF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Reds/Braves. |
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08-01-19 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan UNDER 49.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Hamilton has opened the season 5-1, but a devastating injury to QB Jeremiah Masoli has seen their Grey Cup odds drop from +225 to +550 because of it. The Ti-Cats now have to make adjustments on the fly in hostile territory vs. a Riders team which has won two straight. This is a great situational play, as I expect Hamilton to have difficulties on the offensive side of things today as the unit looks to adjust after the Masoli injury. The Riders have looked better of late, but with Zach Collaros eligible to return, it’ll be interesting to see what happens to QB Cody Fajardo. The pick: Note that three out of these teams last four in the series have fallen under the posted number. With Dane Evans now running the show for Hamilton, expect a much more conservative game-plan from the visitors. I believe when you look at the entire situation that each team finds itself in, that this contest does indeed set up as more of a lower-scoring “chess match” on Thursday night. Hamilton Tiger-Cats/Saskatchewan Roughriders UNDER 10* play |
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08-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: While the first two games of this series have gone under the number, I think that these two hungry clubs (tied for the lead in the NL Central) will post plenty of runs in the rubber match. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty. The pitchers: Lester (9-6, 3.63 ERA) is coming off a strong start and he’s had plenty of success vs. the Cards in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that the Cards are 30-23 at home, while the Cubs are only 21-32 on the road this season.) Flaherty (4-6, 4.17) has been very hot of late, but he’s struggled mightily vs. the Cubs throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in six match ups. The pick: Note that the Cubs are expected to welcome slugger Nicholas Castellanos on Thursday night as well, acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. Expect these starters to get chased early and look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cards OVER 10* play |
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07-31-19 | Pirates v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of competent hurlers go head to head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Dario Agrazal, while the home side counters with ace Luis Castillo. The pitchers: Agrazal (2-1, 3.24 ERA) also comes in off the worst start of his career. Agrazal gave up five runs over six innings in a 6-3 loss to the Mets on Friday, but previous to that he’d not allowed more than two earned runs over his first five starts of his career. Expect a return to the norm here. Castillo (9-4, 2.71) comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing six runs off eight hits over five innings vs. the Rockies on Friday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Castillo though, who has to be feeling confident as he’s 5-3 with a tiny 2.28 ERA at home. The pick: After yesterday’s 11-4 Pittsburgh victory, one which ended a nine-game losing streak and which featured a wild benches-clearing brawl, I believe this contest sets up nicely as much more of a “duel.” Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds UNDER 10* play |
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07-30-19 | Tigers v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Two pitchers who are struggling down the stretch collide in this American League contest on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Drew VerHagen, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning. The pitchers: VerHagen (1-1, 14.40 ERA) gave up seven runs off six hits with four walks in a loss to the Mariners after getting called up last week. Canning (3-6, 5.15) was most recently shelled for five runs off five hits while striking out two over two innings. Over his last five outings Canning has given up 18 runs combined. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five as a road dog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year as a home favorite of -200 or higher. Look for these starters to get the hook early and play the over. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Tigers/Angels. |
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07-28-19 | Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 10 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday’s back and forth “slug-fest,” I’m expecting a much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Yonny Chirinos, while the home side counters with Aaron Sanchez. The pitchers: Chirinos (8-5, 3.29 ERA) has gone at least five frames in all 15 of his starts this year and he’s 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in four career outings vs. the Jays. Sanchez (3-14, 6.06) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits while striking out six and walking no one in an unfortunate no-decision to the hard-hitting Indians. The pick: Note as well that Sanchez owns a tiny 2.03 ERA in 16 career games vs. the Rays. As mentioned off the top, after yesterday’s 10-9 Blue jays win in 12 innings, I think this one sets up nicely as a lower-scoring “under.” 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the under Rays/Jays. |
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07-27-19 | Rangers v. A's OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Two suspect hurlers go head-to-head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Adrian Sampson, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey. The pitchers: Sampson (6-7, 5.19 ERA) while Sampson is 1-0 vs. the A’s in four career starts, he sports an unremarkable 5.51 ERA over that span. Bailey (8-7, 5.42) beat the Mariners 10-2 at home in his debut for his new club, before then predictably falling back down to Earth in an 11-1 loss at Houston in his second. The pick: Note as well that Bailey has faced the Rangers twice already this year while with KC, losing both starts (16-2, 6-2) and posting a 10.13 ERA in the process. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. Play the over. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Rangers/A’s. |
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07-26-19 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton OVER 52.5 | Top | 15-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg is rolling at 5-0 and I think the Blue and Gold will keep the foot on the gas in Hamilton this weekend. In fact, many CFL experts are predicting that this will in fact be this year’s Grey Cup matchup, as Hamilton comes in at 4-1. Note that they’ve split their last four games, each winning at home and also winning on the road. It’s true that the last seven games played between these teams have all gone “under” the number, but note that the average total has bee 55.1. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road favorite, while Hamilton has seen the total sail over the posted number in all three of its home games thus far. The best in the West vs. the beast in the East. Look for these two teams to open up the playbook and expect this total to sail over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the over Bombers/Cats. |
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07-25-19 | Rangers v. A's UNDER 9.5 | 11-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
The set-up: Texas has fallen off the map in the pursuit of a wild card spot and if Oakland isn’t careful, it will also follow suit. The A’s return home to take on Texas, who sits 6.5 games behind them in the division. Oakland has to be feeling confident though as it’s already 6-3 so far in this season series. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Ariel Jurado, while the home side counters with Brett Anderson. The pitchers: Jurado (5-6, 4.92 ERA) is 0-2 with a 12.79 ERA in two lifetime appearances vs. Oakland. Overall it’s been a difficult year for Jurado, but note that he’s been at his best on the road funnily enough, going 3-2 with a respectable 4.12 ERA thus far. Anderson (9-5, 3.82) has had varying success vs. the Rangers throughout his career, but he comes back rested after a paternity leave from the birth of his son. Note that Anderson has been at his best in all “night” game as well so far this season, going 7-2 with a 2.89 ERA. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 15 as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in 25 of 39 this year vs. clubs with winning records. I think this number is just a little high. Texas Rangers/Oakland A's under 8* play |
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07-24-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this number is a little low. The lowly Orioles hand the ball to John Means in this one, while the home side counters with Taylor Clarke. The pitchers: Means (8-5, 2.95 ERA) has been fantastic this season, but I simply feel tha the rookie is in the wrong place at the wrong time here. This is a difficult interleague venue and I think the format will be an issue for Means tonight. Clarke (2-3, 6.50) most recently was shelled for four runs off seven hits over three innings in a loss to the Brewers on Friday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 33 of 56 “night” games this season, while Arizona has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 interleague contests. This number is a tad low. Baltimore Orioles/Arizona DBacks OVER 8* play |
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07-21-19 | Marlins v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday’s total blasted well past the posted number, but all signs point to more of a “duel” here in my opinion. The home side turns to Walker Buehler to try and complete the three-game sweep of the impotent Fish, while the visitors counter with rookie Jordan Yamamoto. The pitchers: Yamomoto (4-0, 1.59 ERA) has not conceded more than two earned runs in any of his outing since he debuted in mid June. Buehler (8-1, 3.44) has 120 K’s over 110 innings this year and he owns a 3.60 ERA over two career starts vs. Miami. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 already this season as an underdog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in 26 of 42 vs. clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. 10* TOTAL DOMINATION under. |
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07-19-19 | Mets v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Jacob deGrom has been his usual dominant self for the Mets of late, but Tyler Beede has for the most part struggled for the Giants this season. These are two hungry teams and I believe this total will sneak over this low number once it’s all said and done. The pitchers: deGrom (5-7, 3.21 ERA) hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of his past ten starts, going 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA in the process. Beede (3-3, 5.44) comes in off a strong performance vs. the Brewers on Sunday, allowing three runs off seven hits over seven innings, but as mentioned off the top, overall he’s struggled this year, especially at home where he’s 0-1 with a poor 5.11 ERA. The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York has seen the total go over the number in ten of 13 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher already, while San Francisco has seen the total go over in 16 of 22 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher. This number is a little low. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC on the over Mets/Giants. |
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07-18-19 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 106 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of hungry veteran hurlers square off against each other in the final game on Thursay night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, while the home side counters with Madison Bumgarner. The pitchers: Syndergaard (7-4, 4.55 ERA) is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts vs. San Francisco. Bumgarner (5-7, 3.86) is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA over his last four starts and he’s never lost to the Mets in his career, going 6-0 with a 2.00 ERA over eight times opposed, including 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts in New York. The pick: Both teams come in off double-digit victories in their previous outings, with the Mets beating Minnesota 14-4 and the Giants getting the better of Colorado 11-8. The opener of this one though has duel written all over it my opinion. This number is high, play the under. 9* PITCHERS DUEL |
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07-16-19 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8 | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is the opener of a three-game set. This is the start of a seven game trip for San Diego, which series upcoming at the Cubs and Mets. The visitors hand the ball to Logan Allen, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto. The pitchers: Allen (2-1, 4.50 ERA) last pitched on July 1st and he was rocked for six runs off seven hits over four innings. Yamamoto (3-0, 1.24) most recently went six scoreless vs. the Braves on July 5th. The rookie has been awesome so far, but clearly the sample size is still too small and I think that a letdown is imminent. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego has seen the total go over the number in seven of nine already this year with a money line in the -100 to -150 range, while Miami has seen the total fly over the number in 13 of 21 vs. southpaws. This number is low, play the over. 8* |
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07-15-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-7 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two starters who have struggled for the most part this year collide in the opener of this three-game series on Monday night and I believe that runs will be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, while the home side counters with Miles Mikolas. The pitchers: Musgrove (6-7, 4.15 ERA) conceded eight runs off six hits with five walks over three innings in a loss to the Cardinals on May 9th. Mikolas (5-9, 4.53) has just one win in his last ten starts and he most recently gave up five runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants. The pick: This is a big series for both teams. St. Louis three games behind the Cubs, while the Pirates sit three games behind the Cards. Pittsburgh was just swept by Chicago, so it certainly won’t be lacking for motivation. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it. 8* OVER Bucs/Cards |
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07-14-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: Toronto pulled off a rare upset over the Yankees yesterday and it’ll be trying to do it again here. New York will be out to atone for that subpar effort and when the smoke does finally clear, I expect this total to sneak above the posted number. The Blue Jays hand the ball to Marcus Stroman, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka. The pitchers: Stroman (5-9, 3.18 ERA) hasn’t pitched since June 29th because of a pectoral issue. Overall Stroman is 6-5 with a 4.21 ERA in 16 career starts vs. New York. Tanaka (5-5, 3.86) last took the mound on July 5th vs. Tampa Bay when he’d allow four runs off six hits over six innings. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jays have already seen the total go over the number in four of five this year on the road when the total is between 10 to 10.5, while the Yanks have seen the total soar over in five of seven at home when total is set in the same range. This number is a little low, play the over. 8* TOTAL ECLIPSE on the over Jays/Yankees. |
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07-07-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Chase Anderson of the Brewers squares off against Joe Musgrove of the Pirates in the final game before the Mid-Summer Classic. Both have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons though, I believe each will get chased early and because of that, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. The pitchers: Anderson (4-2, 4.31 ERA) is 8-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 16 career outings vs. Pittsburgh. Musgrove (6-7, 4.13) is 0-1 with a 7.13 ERA in three career starts vs. the Brewers. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 29 of its last 49 vs. right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh has seen the total sail over in 30 of 49 this year vs. clubs with winning records. Both teams are hungry for the series victory and everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” Play the over. Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 10* play |
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07-06-19 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan OVER 51 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Whoever gets the start for the injured Bo Levi Mitchell, I expect the Stampeders to come out fired up as they look to fill the void of their offensive leader. It’s “next man up” in Calgary this weekend, as it likely turns to Nick Arbuckle to guide the show. Arbuckle helped lead the come-from-behind win over the Lions last weekend, connecting on all nine passes he threw for 93 yards and a TD. But Saskatchewan will be a tough out, as note that the Riders are riding the hot play of QB Cody Fajardo, who had a career-high 430 yards last week vs. Toronto. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Calgary has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 vs. clubs with losing records, while Saskatchewan has seen the total soar over in six of its last eight as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a little low. Calgary Stampeders/Saskatchewan Roughriders OVER 10* play |
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07-06-19 | Chicago Fire v. Kansas City OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -167 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of horrible teams go head to head here. Amazing the Chicago Fire has not won an MLS game away from friendly confines in their last 21 tries. Sporting Kansas City won’t be rolling over either though, as Chicago’s biggest flaw is its defense on the back-end. Kansas City lost its last game to LAFC 5-1 last time out, so defensive play is also a major concern for the home side. The pick: Chicago’s all time record on the road at Sporting Kansas City is 8W, 9D, 11L’s, 40 goals for and 40 goals against. I think the stage is set for a higher-scoring “goal-fest” in this one. Sporting Kansas City/Chicago Fire OVER 10* play |
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07-05-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -118 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in highly motivated in the opener of this series. Colorado comes to town off a 2-4 home stand. Arizona has lost eight straight in this series and would clearly love nothing more than to break that string of futility. The hungry visiting side sends Antonio Senzatela to the hill, while the home side counters with Zack Greinke. The pitchers: Senzatela (7-5, 4.83 ERA) is 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in ten career appearances vs. Arizona spanning 42 innings of work. Greinke (5-3, 2.90) is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts vs. Colorado this year, allowing 21 hits and striking out 12 over 19 frames of work. The pick: Take it or what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over in 27 of 48 vs. right-handed starters this season and in 22 of 36 vs. the division, while Arizona has seen the total go over in nine of 12 already this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. I think the writing is on the wall and a high-scoring “slug-fest” is in the cards. Colorado Rockies/Arizona DBacks OVER 10* play |
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07-04-19 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The White Sox swept a double-header yesterday. The visitors turn to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Robin Lopez in the series finale Thursday afternoon. The pitchers: Boyd (5-6, 3.72 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Rangers on Wednesday, striking out 11. So far he’s 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in one start vs. the White Sox this year. Lopez (4-7, 6.12) is 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA in nine career starts vs. Detroit. Note that Lopez has been particularly effective vs. the Tigers this season, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA while striking out 22 over 12 innings. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go under the number in all three games it’s played in this year on the road when the money line is between -100 and -150, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in 21 of 34 vs. the division. I think these two battle deep and this one stays well below the posted number. Detroit Tigers/Chi. White Sox UNDER 10* play |
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07-03-19 | Twins v. A's UNDER 9.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: A couple of veteran hurlers go toe-to-toe on the slab in this one and I’m expecting a lower-scoring under once it’s all said and done. The Twins send Kyle Gibson to the hill, while the A’s give the nod to Mike Fiers. The pitchers: Gibson (8-4, 4.21 ERA) is 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA in four career starts vs. Oakland. Fiers (8-3, 4.01) has gone 8-2 since joining the A’s in Oakland and he’s 5-2 there this year. Overall Fiers has gone ten straight decisions without a loss, going 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA in the process (Fiers has also gone 6-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 11 career games vs. the Twins.) The pick: The A’s won the opener 8-6, but considering all of the above factors, plus the fact that Minnesota has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten home games after allowing seven or more runs in its previous contest, then the “under” is definitely the correct call here in my opinion. Oakland A's/Minnesota Twins UNDER 8* play |
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06-28-19 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 58 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 74 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Hamllton broke out for a 50 point win over the hapless Argos last week, but I think it has a bit of a letdown in Week 3. In all the Ti-Cats wracked up 604 total yards of offense, including three TD’s from Bralon Addison. Note that this is the first game of a back-to-back home and home series between the clubs, and as such, I’m expecting much more of a defensive affair on Friday night. It’s interesting to note that Hamilton has won four of the last five in this series and in those four victories, they’ve allowed an average of 10.5 points per game (42 in total.) Montreal won’t be rolling over either, as it comes out of its bye week after a Week 1 loss to the Eskimos. Of concern for Montreal fans is that starting QB Antonio Pipkin suffered a knee injury in the loss and he’s expect to miss 4 to 6 weeks. That means that Vernon Adams Jr. is now thrust into the spotlight for the Als. The pick: The pressure is on Montreal to step up defensively with its No. 1 QB sidelined with injury. There’s no way the visitors can turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying home side. So with Montreal trying to control the pace of this one from the outset, I do indeed expect this total to sneak below this sky-high number once it’s all said and done. Hamilton Tiger-Cats/Montreal Allouetes UNDER 10* play |
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06-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
The set-up: The first two games of this series have gone well “under” the number, but I think the finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The Rockies won the first game 2-0, while San Fran won 4-2 yesterday. The visitors go with German Marquez tonight, while the home side goes with Jeff Samardzija. The pitchers: Marquez (7-3, 4.32 ERA) is 1-3 with a 4.75 ERA in six starts vs. the Giants (despite pitching a one-hit shutout vs. them on April 14th.) Samardzija (4-6, 4.23) is 5-6 with a 3.71 ERA in 18 games vs. the Rockies. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has already seen the total go over the number in 12 of 18 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while San Fran has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 27 of its last 47 vs. right-handed starters. This number is a little low. San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies OVER 9* play |
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06-24-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one, as two veteran hall of fame hurlers collide on Monday night. Suffice it to say I believe that runs are going to be at a premium with LA’s Clayton Kershaw squaring off against the Diamondbacks’ Zach Greinke. The pitchers: Kershaw (7-1, 2.85 ERA) is sixth in the NL in ERA and fifth in WHIP. He’s 16-9 with a 2.59 ERA in 31 games vs. the Diamondbacks. Greinke (8-3, 2.91) is seventh in the NL in ERA and third in WHIP (0.93). He’s 7-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the Dodgers. The pick: It’s interesting to note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 34 this year vs. teams with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go under in eight of 12 this season as an underdog. This number is a little high. LA Dodgers/Arizona D-Backs UNDER 8* play |
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06-22-19 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m expecting a lower-scoring pitchers duel between these two hungry starters after Minnesota’s come from behind 8-7 win last night. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy. The pitchers: Berrios (8-3, 2.86 ERA) comes in off a gem, striking out a season-high ten batters with one walk over eight innings in an unfortunate loss vs. the Red Sox. Duffy (3-3, 4.64) has looked great at times this year and very poor in others, but a date vs. the Twins is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, as note that he’s 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA in 21 appearances vs. them. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 17 vs. the division still, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten this year at home when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. This number is a little high. KC Royals/Minnesota Twins UNDER 9* play |
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06-21-19 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Trevor Bauer has been decent of late for the Indians, but Matt Boyd has taken a step back tho season after a strong 2018. For a number of different reasons, I think this number is too low. The pitchers: Boyd (5-5, 3.35 ERA) comes in off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for five runs over four innings in a 7-3 loss to the impotent Royals. Bauer (5-6, 3.41) comes in off his first complete-game shutout of his career over these very Tigers last Sunday. Clearly the visitors will be out to atone for that setback (note that Bauer hadn’t been credited with a win before that since April 30th.) Note as well that Bauer owns a 5.17 ERA lifetime vs. the Tigers in 18 career appearances still. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. This number is a little low. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC over Tigers/Indians |
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06-16-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 12-0 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
The set-up: Toronto hasn’t put up much of a fight in this series. The Jays are struggling at the plate and I think that trend continues here in another difficult matchup on the mound for them. The visitors hand the ball to Trent Thornton, while the home side goes with Brad Peacock. The pitchers: Thornton (1-5, 4.78 ERA) suffered a loss in Baltimore last time out, allowing three runs over five innings. Peacock (6-3, 3.42) enters on top form, going 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 45 K’s vs. 12 walks over his last seven starts spanning 40 1/3’s frames of work. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten road games following a two games or longer losing streak, while Houston has seen the total dip under in eight of 12 already this season as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is high. Toronto Blue Jays/Houston Astros UNDER 9* play |
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06-12-19 | Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s Game 7! Two hopeful teams collide in Boston tonight, ready to lift the Stanley Cup! The Blues went 30-23 on the road this year, averaging 2.81 goals and allowing 2.40. St. Louis’ goaltender Jordan Binnington is 15-10 with a 2.52 GAA in the playoffs. Boston is 36-17 at home, averaging 3.36 goals and allowing 2.40. Tuukka Rask is 15-8 with a 1.93 GAA in the playoffs this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go under in 15 of 24 this year following a loss by two goals or more, while Boston has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 20 when playing with two days rest. This number is high. STL Blues/Boston Bruins UNDER 10* play |
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06-12-19 | Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Marlins go with right-hander Jordan Yamamoto who makes his MLB debut tonight, while the visitors go with the struggling Miles Mikolas. Miami will be desperate to break out of its funk here after losing six straight and scoring just ten runs in that span. The pitchers: Yamamoto was 3-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts in Double A. Mikolas (4-6, 4.54) has had plenty of success vs. the Fish in the past, but that was then and this is now. Mikolas is just 1-3 with a 7.52 ERA on the road this year and he’s allowed 13 homers in 13 starts after allowing just 16 in total last year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after allowing three runs of press in two straight games, while Miami has seen the total go over in six of eight this season in trying to revenge two straight home loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little low. STL Cards/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play |
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06-11-19 | Mets v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The sub-way series was postponed a day due to inclement weather. Now the Mets and Yanks will play a double-header, with Zack Wheeler and Masahiro Tanaka getting the call in Game 1 and then Jason Vargas and James Paxton going in the second. This is a play on the “over” in Game 2. The Mets come into the day having won 12 of their last 20. The Yanks won’t be lacking for motivation after going 2-5 in their last seven. The pitchers: Vargas (2-3, 3.57 ERA) has been exceptional of late, but regression seems imminent in my opinion. Note as well that he’s a terrible 0-7 with a 6.84 ERA in 11 appearances vs. the Yankees. Paxton (3-2, 2.11) is making his third start since coming off the IL after missing three weeks with a knee injury. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total soar over the number in three of four interleague games already, while the Yanks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 14 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. All signs point to a slugfest in the night game. NY Yankees/NY Mets OVER 10* play |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors OVER 215.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a very entertaining series. Golden State has its hands full in this series, as the Raptors are healthy and fearless and arguably have the best player in the World in Kawhi Leonard on their team. Klay Thompson didn’t play for the Warriors in Game 3, but he’ll be back in the line-up tonight and that definitely changes things for Stephen Curry and the defending champs. Kevin Durant is not expected to play for Golden State, but the Warriors rolled over the Blazers in four games with this exact line-up. I think this one definitely sets up as more of a shootout than a defensive “chess match.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten road playoff games following a road playoff win, while Golden State has seen the total soar over in eight of its last 12 home playoff games following a home playoff loss. This number is low, play the over. GSW/Raps OVER 10* play |
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06-07-19 | South Korea (W) v. France (W) OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The month long competition finally gets underway for the Women. South Korea faces off against Host France, which is one of the favorites to win the entire thing. Both teams are in Group A and are joined by Norway and Nigeria. The French are going to want to get out to a resounding start in front of the home town crowd, while the visitors know they’ll have to match pace. I think overall from a “situational” stand point that this one definitely sets up great as more of a higher-scoring “shootout,” than a defensive “chess match.” The pick: France is loaded with talent, with seven players apart of the Champions League winner Lyon (keep your eyes on Eugenie Le Sommer, who has 223 goals in 249 games for Lyon.) I think the underdog Koreans will have their chance to score vs. this aggressive French team. This number is low. France/Korea OVER 10* play |
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06-03-19 | Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Who could have predicted that Boston and St. Louis would be playing in the Stanley Cup Final?! These teams have been riding red hot goaltending over the second half of the season and before this series even started, I said that whichever of these incredibly talented netminders remained hot in the Finals, would end up being the victor once it was all said and done. Tuukka Rask has so far gotten the better of Jordan Binnington, but with their backs against the wall and looking to avoid a 3-1 hole before heading back to Boston, I believe the Blues “clamp down” on the defensive end in Game 4. The pick: The numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Boston has seen the total go under in five of six already this season when leading in a playoff series, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in five of its last six when trailing in a playoff series. This number is high. St Louis Blues/Boston Bruins UNDER 10* play |
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06-02-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston will be desperate to avoid the three-game series sweep. New York continues to get production at the plate despite several key injuries to its sluggers. While David Price has historically struggled vs. New York, he comes into this contest “firing on all cylinders” and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. CC Sabathia has enjoyed plenty of success vs. Boston and I think the veteran will also have a big night Sunday. The pitchers: Price (2-2 2.83 ERA) is 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA over his last four starts. Sabathia (3-1, 3.48) is 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA over his last eight starts vs. the Red Sox. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 20 this year vs. teams with winning records, while New York has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten vs. left-handed starters. I think this number is slightly high. Red Sox/Yanks under 10* COACH’S CLINIC |
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06-01-19 | Royals v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Two veteran hurlers who have seen better days go head to head in this one and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to easily eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Homer Bailey, while the home side counters with Lance Lynn. The pitchers: Decent starts have been few and far between for Bailey (4-5, 5.79 ERA) over the last couple of years, who finished 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA last season. It’s difficult to point out any positives about Bailey as he continues to struggle with consistency from game-to-game. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 6.16 ERA on the road. Lynn (6-4, 4.66) like his count part has looked decent one game, only to struggle in the next. Note that he has a terrible 6.01 ERA at home so far this year. The pick: Lynn’s been decent over the last month, including vs. the Royals, but overall he still owns a rather poor 5.01 ERA over eight career starts vs. them. The Rangers evened this series with yesterday’s lower-scoring 6-2 win, so with each team pressing for the series victory, I expect these volatile starters to get the hook early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 10* KC/Tex Over |
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05-30-19 | Ukraine U20 v. Nigeria U20 UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m expecting a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring “under” in this round 3 of the group state of the World Cup U20. This one is being played at Stadion Miejski (Bielsko-Biała.) Nigeria and the USA were pegged as the favorites of this group. Nigeria destroyed Qatar 4-0 and then 2-0 over the USA. Ukraine has six points, beating the USA 2-1 and Qatar 1-0. The pick: These two teams will be cautious. Each has gotten out to slow starts in the first half of their respective contests to open this tournament as well. I believe the stage is set for a tight/lower-scoring battle. This number is a little high. Nigeria/Ukraine UNDER 9* play |
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05-30-19 | Qatar U20 v. USA U20 OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The stage is set for the U20 USA team to advance to the second round after a crucial win over Nigeria. Even a single point would likely be enough to assure it a third place/position in the knock-out round. But the Americans will clearly be looking to push the pace and to run up the score here vs. a weak Qatar team. Qatar has nothing to lose, except another game. The underdogs will be desperate to get off the schneid, having been blanked from the scoresheet over the first two games. The pick: From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as more of a wide-open “shootout.” This number is low. USA/Qatar OVER 10* play |
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05-29-19 | Giants v. Marlins OVER 7 | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
The set-up: San Francisco is now in last place in the NL West after yesterday’s 11-3 series opening loss. Neither team has much to play for here other than pride at this point, but in my opinion, everything points to another high-scoring “slug-fest” on Wednesday night. The Giants hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, while the home side counters with the volatile Pablo Lopez. The pitchers: Bumgarner (3-4, 4.10 ERA) comes in off a decent outing vs. the Braves in his last start, but he’s just 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA in eight lifetime starts vs. the Fish. Lopez (3-5, 5.40) has a 1.93 ERA at home and an 8.26 ERA on the road. I think these lop-sided numbers start correct themselves. Starting tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Giants have seen the total go over in 11 of 17 already this year vs. clubs with losing records, while the Marlins have seen the total sail over in nine of 12 this year already when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. Look for these two starters to get the hook early. San Francisco Giants/Miami Marlins OVER 8* play |
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05-27-19 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this interleague matchup on Monday night and in my opinion, I think runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels, while the home side counters with Gerritt Cole. The pitchers: Hamels (4-0, 3.38 ERA) is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 16 K’s over his last 16 innings of work. Cole (4-5, 4.11) hasn’t been at his best over the last weeks, but he still leads the majors in strikeouts with 100 and in strikeout rate at 37.7 percent. He is also 9-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Cubs. The pick: Many Astros’ sluggers are on the IL right now, including Aledmys Diaz, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Max Stassi. I think the stage is set for these starters to “steal the show.” This number is high. Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros UNDER 10* play |
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05-26-19 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m surprised the total is this high considering the talent level on the mound tonight. I’m expecting a classic “duel” on Sunday night, with Atlanta sending veteran Julio Teheran to the hill and the home side countering with Joe Flaherty. The pitchers: Teheran (3-4, 3.67 ERA) struggled to open the 2019 campaign, but he’s been “lights out” in May, going 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA through four outings. Note tha the’s 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA seven career starts vs. the Cards as well. Flaherty (4-3, 4.19) has pitched at least five innings in four starts this month and now given up more than three earned runs in any of those appearances. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL has seen the total go under the number in seven of eight already this year after having won six of seven of its last eight games, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven vs. right-handed starters. This number is a bit high. Atlanta Braves/STL Cardinals UNDER 9* play |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 212.5 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: After the Milwaukee Bucks went up 2-0, many thought that Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors’ magical run was finished. But Toronto made adjustments when the series shifted North of the border and now the Raptors find themselves in the drivers seat with a chance to end it at home in Game 6. Leonard has been phenomenal defensively on Bucks’ star Giannis Antetokounmpo and I think the Milwaukee forward will once again have his hands full here in this difficult road arena. Also note that Bucks’ shooter Nikola Mirotic is just 6 for 31 from range in this series. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 road games following back-to-back SU/ATS losses, while Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten home games following B2B SU/ATS playoff victories. The Bucks have been no slouches defensively either in this series. Game 6 has the feel of an all out war from start to finish. This number is high. Toronto Raptors/Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 10* play |
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05-25-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Diamondbacks broke out of their slump in a big way last night by destroying the Giants 18-2. Clearly the last thing Arizona can do is sit back and relax though as it’ll now look to carry that momentum over into another favorable matchup. The Giants can’t be happy after getting shellacked either. Two confirmed “gas cans” go head to head in this one and in my opinion, this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Taylor Clarke, while the home side counters with Andrew Suarez. The pitchers: Clarke (0-1, 2.00 ERA) gave up two runs over six innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. This will be his second start of his career. Suarez (0-1, 4.50) gave up three runs and four hits over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. This is his second start of the season as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona has seen the total go over in 13 of 20 vs. the division already this season, while San Fran has seen the total fly over in seven of ten already this year after a loss by four runs or more. This number is much to low in my opinion. Arizona Dbacks/San Francisco Giants OVER 10* play |
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05-23-19 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are struggling offensively, but New York now has an opportunity to sweep this four game series after its 6-1 win last night, scoring all six runs in the eighth inning. Washington is now 11 games under .500. Washington last won a game when tonight’s starter Stephen Strasburg was last on the hill, while the home side counters with Stephen Matz. The pitchers: Strasburg (4-3, 3.32 ERA) gave up two runs over eight innings in a 5-2 win over the Cubs last weekend. Note that he’s pitched at least six frames in nine of his ten trips to the mound this season. Matz (3-3, 3.96) returned from the DL to give up two runs over four innings in a 2-0 loss to the Marlins on Saturday. While just 1-5 vs. the Nats in 11 career starts, Matz owns a very respectable 3.60 ERA. The pick: Note as well that Strasburg is 9-5 with a 2.83 ERA in 19 career starts vs. New York. The Nationals’ bullpen has been atrocious, but I expect these competent starters to battle deep. This number is high. Washington Nationals/NY Mets UNDER 10* play |
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05-22-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a big game. For both teams. The Diamondbacks are desperate to avoid a sweep, while San Diego is desperate to post a sweep. These are two highly motivated clubs and I think it’s going to ultimately translate into offensive production at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Merrill Kelly, while the home side counters with Eric Lauer. The pitchers: Kelly (4-4, 4.21 ERA) is 1-0 vs. the Padres, but he’s given up seven runs off 13 hits spanning two starts and 11 frames to finish with a 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Lauer (2-4, 5.24) is 0-2 vs. the Diamondbacks already this year, getting shelled for seven runs off 17 hits with a 6.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 18 vs. the division already, while SD has seen the total fly over in seven of ten already this season following a win by one run. This number is low, play the over. Padres/D-Backs over 8* |
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05-18-19 | Cardinals v. Rangers UNDER 12 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: Texas rolled to a 7-3 win over the Cards last night, but I’m expecting much more of a “duel” this evening. The home side hands the ball to Ariel Jurado, while the visitors try to bounce back with Dakota Hudson on the bump. The pitchers: Jurado (1-1, 1.50 ERA) makes his first start of the year. Last year he started eight games. He most recently gave up two runs over three innings to the Royals. Hudson (2-3, 4.61) most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a loss to the Pirates last weekend. Despite going 0-2 in three starts in May, Hudson owns a very respectable 3.18 ERA in that span. The pick: St. Louis is struggling at the plate (getting outscored 21-5 in losing its last three games) and I don’t see anything changing here suddenly either. Look for these competent starters to battle deep. Texas Rangers/STL Cardinals UNDER 8* play |
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05-17-19 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose took back home ice advantage with its Game 3 victory. The Sharks had to battle tooth and nail and they scored an improbable last second shot to tie the game, before then going on to win 5-4 in OT. It was an uncharacteristic breakdown for the usually stingy Blues and in my opinion, Game 4 sets up as much more of a defensive goaltenders battle. Note that despite the higher-scoring game, St. Louis goaltender Martin Jones is still 10-6 with a 2.89 GAA in the playoffs and for his career he’s now 5-4 with a 2.00 GAA vs. the Blues. St. Louis goaltender Jordan Binnington is now 9-7 with a 2.67 GAA in the playoffs. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go under in 16 of its last 24 after playing to three or more consecutive overs, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in six of its last eight after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This number is high, play the under. San Jose Sharks/Saint Louis Blues UNDER 10* play |
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05-17-19 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland destroyed the Tigers 17-3 yesterday. I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “duel” in the second game. The home side sends Daniel Norris to the bump to atone for yesterday’s disappointing effort, while the visitors counter with Frankie Montas. The pitchers: Montas (4-2, 2.78 ERA) held the hard-hitting Indians to two runs over six innings last Friday, after holding the Pirates to one run over six frames of work. Montas hasn’t given up a home run in his last five starts and I believe he carries over that momentum here. Norris (2-1, 3.63) gave up two runs while striking out five over seven innings vs. the hard-hitting Twins on Sunday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 23 then the total 9 or higher, while Detroit has seen the total dip under in ten of 13 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. After yesterday’s slug-fest, expect these competent hurlers to be the main story-lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Oakland A's/Detroit Tigers UNDER 10* play |
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05-16-19 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Two pitchers on top form collide in this National League contest on Thursday night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium here. The Reds came out on top 6-5 in ten innings yesterday, but everything points to more of a “duel” between the Cubs Jose Quintana and the Reds Luis Castillo on Thursday. The pitchers: Quintana (4-2, 3.50 ERA) had a four game win streak snapped in last Friday’s setback to the Brewers, allowing three runs over seven innings. He’s 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. Castillo (4-1, 1.76) has won four straight, most recently posting a season-best 11 K’s over six shutout innings in a victory over San Francisco last weekend. He’s 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts vs. Chicago. The pick: Note that Chicago has seen the total go under in 9 of 14 vs. division opponents already this year, while Cincinnati has seen the total go under in ten of 16 at home. This number is high. Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Red UNDER 10* play |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season. The pick: I think Toronto turns this series into an all out war. It’ll try to take the Bucks out of their comfort level while attempting to dictate the flow. From a situational stand point I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle. But note as well that Toronto has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 24 this year after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, while Milwaukee has seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games. This number is high. 8* Under. |
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 218 | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The fact that the Warriors are in the Western Conference Finals doesn’t come as a shock obviously, but not many would have predicted that the Blazers would have advanced to this point. Portland has been getting exceptional play from the duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Warriors played Game 6 in Houston without All Star Kevin Durant and they’ll have to open the WCF without the dynamic forward in the line-up as well. Golden State used its “shooting line-up” in the Game 6 win, with the offense revolving through Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and Steve Kerr will now be forced to use the same game-plan here as well. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Portland has seen the total go over in seven of ten this year off an upset win as a road dog, while GS has seen the total go over in all three games it’s played in this season when playing with three or more days rest. This number is a tad low. Golden State Warriors/Portland Trail Blazers OVER 10* play |
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05-14-19 | Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 51 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: After the high-scoring affairs in Boston, I’m expecting a much more defensive goaltenders battle in Game 3. Boston has been an average road team this season though, while Carolina has been much better at home. I think the shift in venue will also help in pushing this total under the number. Note that the Bruins have allowed only 1.89 goals over their last 11 games. Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask is now 10-5 with a 2.02 GAA in the playoffs. His counterpart Petr Mrazek has uncharacteristically struggled the last two games, but he’s still 5-5 with a 2.73 GAA in the playoffs. Note that the Hurricanes only allow 2.46 GPG at home this year as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 20 road games when the total is 5.5, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in 15 of 25 after allowing four or more goals. This number is a little high. Boston Bruins/Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 10* play |
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05-12-19 | Chelsea v. Leicester OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -143 | 87 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Chelsea needs to at the very least match Tottenham’s result vs. Everton in order to take down third place, but it comes in knowing that it will be playing in Champions League football next year. Leicester won’t be going down without a fight here though in front of the home town crowd as it looks to close the season on a high note, while also paying tribute to their late owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha The pick: Leicester actually has a lot to play for here, as an outright would move them to as high as eighth, but an outright loss could slip it as low as 11th. Chelsea won’t take the foot off the gas at this point, especially after losing the reverse fixture 1-0 in December. I’m banking on a high-scoring shootout this time around. Leicester City/Chelsea OVER 10* play |
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05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s an elimination game for the Blazers. Denver can smell the Western Conference Finals now and I believe it’ll look to push the pace and keep the pressure high from start to finish. Denver gook Game 5 on Tuesday night by a score of 124-98, as it now is having zero issues in exploiting the Blazers weak defensive play. It’s do or die for Portland, which will be looking for a much better offensive performance at home after stumbling the last couple of games. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go over in 13 of its last 19 as a road dog of six points or less, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 11 off a loss vs. a division rival. This number is low. Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets OVER 10* play |
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05-07-19 | Barcelona FC v. Liverpool OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game, as the first Champions League finalist will be decided here. Barcelona travels to Liverpool hoping to close it out after a 3-0 win in the first leg at Camp Nou. Lionel Messi had two goals in that one for Barca. The Reds won’t be going down without a fight, but if they’re going to pull off the upset, they’ll be doing it without the injured Mohamed Salah. The pick: Bacelona is loaded with talent and I don’t think it’ll be content with a single goal here. The Reds are capable of scoring despite the injury to Salah, as Daniel Sturridge enters on top form. This number is a little low considering the circumstances. Barcelona/Liverpool OVER 10* play |
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05-06-19 | Sharks v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose has turned this series around and it has a chance to end it here and now. The reason behind that turnaround? Goaltender Martin Jones. Jones has a 6-2, 1.94 GAA and .936 save percentage in the playoffs. Clearly the Avs won’t be going down without a fight. Colorado is also leaning on its goaltender Philipp Grubauer, who had a career-high 37 saves in the Game 5 loss, after previously posting a shutout in Game 4. Note that Colorado was outshot 39-22 in Game 5. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four when leading in a playoff series, while Colorado has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven when trailing in a playoff series. This one has goaltenders battle written all over it. San Jose Sharks/Colorado Avalanche UNDER 8* play |
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05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockets scrapped tooth and nail in their 126-121 OT Game 3 victory to pull the series to 2-1 in favor of the Warriors. The contest would have gone “over” the number whether the game went to OT or not and I expect a similar style of “shootout” in Game 4 as well. The Nuggets and Blazers went to four OT’s in their Game 3 and they came out with a lot of energy in Game 4 last night, as that total easily blasted past the posted number as well. And I expect a similar sort of situation here as well. Golden State played well defensively at home in Game’s 1 and 2, but clearly the Rockets are out to push the pace at home, especially now as they try to close the gap and even the series. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State has seen the total go “over” the number in 21 of its last 32 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total fly “over” in four of its last five when trailing in a playoff series. This one has “over” written all over it. GSW/Rockets OVER 10* play |
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