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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-15-19 | Bills v. Steelers UNDER 37 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 151 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bills three-game win streak ended with a 24-17 loss at home to the Ravens. Buffalo is seeking its tenth win of the year for the first time since 1999, but the Bills will have their hands full with this Steelers team which enters having won three straight. Last week the Steelers got the job done vs. the Cards by running hte ball for 141 yards by committee. Pittsburgh also held Arizona to just 240 yards of offense. The Bills love slowing things down though and wearning out teams. Buffalo only averages 21.3 PPG, but it only allows 16.3. QB Josh Allen has 17 passing TD's and eight rushing. The pick: Note that the Bills have seen the total dip under the number in all six games they've played in as an underdog, while Pittsburgh has een the total go under in three of four as a home favorite this season. I'm banking on a classic hard-nosed, lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under. 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bills/Steelers. |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 174 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Eli Manning is back under center for the Giants, who enter at 2-10 and nothing to play for. Manning is purely playing for pride, but I think the future hall of famer is going to predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. The Eagles are on the ropes and need to basically "win out" the remainder of the season and get outside help to play the playoffs (5-7). Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has 20 TD's and seven INT's, but he's also been sacked 30 times. New York has 26 sacks. Philly only allows 91 rushing yards per game though, so the Giants' already one-dimensional offense is going to become even more so on the National Stage. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. The pick: Additionally note that New York has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 17 as a home favorite, including in two of three this season. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Giants/Eagles. |
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12-07-19 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 218 | Top | 112-126 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Memphis is 6-15 and the Jazz are 12-10. It's safe to say that neither team is too happy where it sits right now. The Grizzlies will be especially motivated here after a loss in Chicago. Utah also comes out with a chip on its shoulder after falling at home to the Lakers in their latest contest, as LA was playing the second game of a back-to-back in that one. The pick: Utah though has lost four of its last five, behind a stagnant offense. Both teams are determined to establish its offense early and often and I believe that's going to help in contributing to a higher-scoring shootout today. Note as well that Memphis has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Utah has seen the total go over in three of its last four off a terrible upset loss by 20 points or more as a favorite. This one has "shootout" written all over it. 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Grizzlies/Jazz. |
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12-06-19 | Kings v. Spurs UNDER 215 | Top | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a very defensive affair between two teams desperate for a victory. The Kings are 8-12 and the Spurs are 8-14. The Kings have lost four of their last five, behind a 19th ranked defense and a 23rd ranked offense. San Antonio is likely to be without one of its main scoring options in big man LaMarcus Aldridge, which puts even more pressure on an already stretched thin DeMar DeRozan. The pick: Note that the Kings have seen the total dip under in five of their last six following a road loss, while San Antonio has seen the total go under in four of its last five as a home dog. Expect a hard-nosed defensive affair and play the under. 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Kings/Spurs. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears OVER 42 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 78 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: So why should we expect a "shootout" on the short week? Chicago isn't known for its offensive prowess and Dallas has been inconsistent on that side of the ball all year as well. Despite that though I think this number is low, as I expect these two still playoff hopeful sides to not sit back and wait for the other to make the first mistake. Instead, I look for each to attack from start to finish. Chicago picked up a huge win over Detroit last week and at 6-6 its stil alive in the NFC playoff race. And for Dallas, it comes in off a putrid performance at home vs. the Bills and another loss here will be a major setback. At 6-6 the Cowboys still have a one game lead in the NFC East. The pick: Note as well that the Cowboys have already seen the total go over the number in four of five as a road favorite this year, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. These starting QB's have something to prove and if not now...when? Look for this one to go over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Boys/Bears. |
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12-05-19 | Nuggets v. Knicks OVER 201.5 | Top | 129-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: When I bet totals, I bet the "situation" (primiarily anyways), and in this case I expect these two hungry sides who normally struggle with offensive consistency, to instead get out and push the pace and to easily eclipse this very low number. Denver has looked good overall, but it enters off a poor performance and subsequent loss at home to the Lakers and as such, I look for it to take out its frustrations on the defensively inept Knicks. New York has difficulties scoring and now it faces the Nuggets tough defense, but clearly the home side will be out to push the pace in an attempt to get their opponent out of its comfort zone. So, situationally I think this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." The pick: Also note that the Nuggets have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 12 off an upset loss at home as the favorite, while the Knicks have seen the total soar over in nine of their last 13 after scoring 90 points or less in their previous outing. This number is a tad low in my opinion. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the OVER Nuggets/Knicks. |
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12-02-19 | Bulls v. Kings OVER 211 | Top | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here and when it's all said and done, I look for this total to sail over the posted number. The Bulls have lost three straight and there's no question that they'll be pushing the pace from start to finish. The BUlls average 106.1 PPG and the Kings allow 107.6. The pick: The Kings went to OT with the Nuggets in their last game and ended up winning. The total in that contest still stayed under the number though. But I think that the home side builds off that win and comes out firing here as well. Note that the Kings average 104.2 PPG and the Bulls allow 110.3. Finally note that Chicago has seen the total go over in four of its last five following a SU road loss, while Sac has seen the total soar over in five of six off a close home win by three points or less. This number is low. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Bulls/Kings. |
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 49 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 155 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle owns an 11-5 edge the last 16 in this series, including having won five straight. Clearly Minnesota has revenge on its mind. The Vikes come out of their bye in need of a win with a difficult schedule ahead. Minnesota will look to grind this one out in my opinion, as the Hawks allow 101.5 rushing yards per game and Vikes' RB Dalvin Cook already had 1,017 rushing yards and 11 TD's on the ground, along with another 455 receiving yards. The pick: Seattle will have seen the 49ers lose last night, so a victory here keeps it in pace for the conference title as well. The Hawks face a difficult task vs. a Vikings' defense which concedes only 94.2 RYPG. Note that the Vikes have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten as a road dog, while the Hawks have seen it dip below the posted number in four of their last five after four or more straight SU victories. Two great offenses, but the situation and numbers both point to a lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Vikes/Hawks. |
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12-01-19 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 126 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texans are in a dog fight in the AFC South, while at 10-1 the Patriots are well on their way to defending their Super Bowl title once again. Houston comes in off a crucial win over the Colts and I think DeShaun Watson can put the pressure on Pats' QB Tom Brady, who has looked poor over the last month. Overall Brady has averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt passing. The Patriots are going to need Brady to step up here though, as several key players on the defensive side are dealing with a flu bug this week. The pick: Brady faces a Texans' secondary which has been ravaged by injury though, so this sets up well for the veteran to bounce back. Watson and the Texans though will smell the blood in the water and I expect the home side to come out firing here as well. Neither side has played to many high-scoring affairs this year, but I believe the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this contest has this one looking like a "shootout," instead of a "chess match." Play the over. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Patriots/Texans. |
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12-01-19 | Canadiens v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Canadiens have lost seven in a row. They've also lost three straight home games, conceding 18 goals in that span. One of those losses was an 8-1 setback vs. the Bruins. Note that Habs' netminder Carey Price though does have a sharp 27-14-5 record and a 2.53 GAA lifetime vs. the Bruins. The pick: The Bruins are tops in scoring and on the defensive end of the ice. Last time out they rallied for a 3-2 OT win over the Rangers on Friday. In my opinion, considering how focussed I expect the Habs to be on the defensive end tonight, I look for this rematch to be dominated by the men between the nets (Note that Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask is currently 12-2-0 with a 2.10 GAA this season.) This number is high. 10* TOTAL PROFIT-STRIKER on the UNDER Habs/Bruins. |
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11-30-19 | Nuggets v. Kings OVER 205.5 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team is really known for its offensive explosiveness, but for a number of different reasons I think each will combine to push this number over the posted number once it's all said and done. Denver is rolling and it'll look to keep the foot on the gas after winning ten of their last 11 and six straight. The Kings play with revenge here after falling 101-94 in Denver earlier in the season. Denver won't be rolling over though obviously after getting the better of Washington 117-104 last time out. The pick: Since their loss to Denver, Sacramento has scored at least 100 points in each of its last five home games. WIth revenge on their minds, I expect the hungry Kings to set the early pace and to push it from the opening tip, until the final horn. This number is a tad low, play the over. 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Nuggets/Kings. |
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11-30-19 | Flyers v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -116 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: I base my picks on many different things, but after allowing 14 goals in two straight home losses, I believe the Habs risk life and limb today to take advantage of a Flyers team coming off a 6-1 win in Detroit just last night. Montreal has in fact lost six straight. The pick: For me looking at this particular contest, it's not about who is in net or on the ice, it's a great situational pick. As stated off the top, I think the Habs are going to double down on the defensive end today and I believe the Flyers are going to come in flat after last night's big win. Additionally note that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in eight of ten already this season vs. clubs with losing records, while Montreal has seen the total dip below in 11 of its last 15 after playing to three or more consecutive "overs." This number is high considering the situtational circumstances. 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the UNDER Flyers/Habs. |
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11-29-19 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 7-49 | Loss | -109 | 75 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: 3-8 Bowling Green meets 6-5 Buffalo with nothing on the line. Yes the Bulls could be eligible for a slightly better bowl game with a win today, but after becoming eligible last time out, a mental lapse is inevitable in my opinion. Bowling Green is just 3-8 and can't even use the role of spoiler as motivation today. Bowling Green was killed 66-24 by Ohio last time out and I have a hard time seeing it mustering that much offense this time around. Buffalo smashed Toledo 49-30 in its last game. The pick: The Bulls really do need one more win to solidy their positioning, but this is a contest in which it can sit back and control the tempo. Bowling Green is a run first offense and Buffalo ranks in the top ten in stopping the rush. Also note that four of Bowling Green's five games on the road this year have fallen under the number already. I expect a low-scoring defensive battle this time around. 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Bowling Green/Buffalo. |
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11-28-19 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 50 | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 85 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: Normally the Saints like to dominate teams by running them off the field with their fast paced offense, but I don't think they'll run up the score here on the short week. The Falcons have major issues across the board and New Orleans is going to be able to sit back and control this one and look for the host to make the first mistake. The Saints held on for a crucial 34-31 win over Carolina last weekend and they're in the drivers seat for the No. 2 spot in the NFC. The Falcons are out of contention and come in off a 35-22 loss to the Bucs last weekend. The pick: Note that the Saints have seen the total go under the number in 12 of their last 17 after a home victory, while ATL has seen the total dip below in four of five at home already this season. On the short week and on Thanksgiving night, expect these defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 10* play on the UNDER Saints/Falcons. |
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11-28-19 | Devils v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal will be risking life and limb to secure a victory today. The Canadiens have lost five in a row and enter off a humbling 8-1 home loss to Boston. New Jersey comes in having lost three of its last four. Jersey goalie Louis Domingue is 3-1-0 with a 2.86 GAA lifetime vs. Montreal. Unfortuantely for him his team is averaging only 2.52 GPG this year. The pick: Montreal has conceded a whopping 14 goals over its last two games and clearly all eyes will be on its defensive play tonight and on goaltender Carey Price, who is 12-13-1 with a 2.39 GAA lifetime vs. the Devils. Three of the past five in this series have fallen below the posted number and all signs once again point to a defensive affair considering the situation that each club finds itself in coming into this one. Play the under. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Devils/Canadiens. |
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 58 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -103 | 59 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Mississippi State is 5-6 and it needs to win this game to become eligible. Ole Miss is 4-7 and it's now out to play the role of spoiler. The Egg Bowl looks like a "shootout" out to me this year. Mississippi comes in off a game in which its defense just allowed 58 points to LSU. The pick: Mississippi State completely dominated this game last year, winning 35-3. This year Ole Miss is giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air, so QB Tommy Stevens is primed for a big performance on the National stage in my opinion. Note that Ole Miss has seen the total soar over in four of five already this year after playing a game at home, while Mississippi State has seen the total eclipse the number in three of four this season following a SU victory. This number is a tad low. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Mississippi/Mississippi State. |
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11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions OVER 38.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 77 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: Chicago got the better of Detroit 23-16 last year. You'll often hear players that have to play on Thanksgiving that they "take it differently" or it means more etc. Despite their win/loss record of just 3-7, the Lions have a chance to knock the Bears out of playoff contention with a victory today. Detroit's also out to avenge a 23-16 loss last November and a 20-13 road setback in Chicago on November 10th. The Bears clearly won't be going down without a fight after they clawed their way to an ugly 19-14 win over the Giants at home last weekend. The pick: Whether the Lions go with Jeff Driskell or David Blough, the game-plan will be the same; throw the ball early and often. The Lions rely on their passing game to generate offense, averaging 289.5 receiving yards per game. There doesn't have to be much scoring for this total to over the number. The Bears' Trubisky has already beaten Detroit this year and I think he also pushes the pace. This one has "over" written all over it. 8* play on the OVER Bears/Lions. |
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11-26-19 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 227.5 | Top | 114-99 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: These two red hot Western Conference heavy weights collide and I believe that points will be at a premium. The Clippers have won five straight and the Mavericks have won five straight. LA has plenty of offensive weaponry, including Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Mavericks have plenty of offense talent as well, centered around star Luka Doncic. I think though that LA will look to control this game while on offense and to not turn it into a wide open shootout. I expect the visitors to contest everything with full court pressure. The pick: Note as well that LA has failed to score 100+ points in two of its last three road games. Also note that Dallas managed to keep the opponents to 110 or fewer points in each of its previous six games at home. I expect a competitive, but lower-scoring affair in this one. 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks. |
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11-26-19 | Bruins v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal skated to a 5-4 win in Boston two weeks ago, but I think this re-match will be a classic "goaltenders battle." Boston's won five of the last six in this series North of the Border, but it comes in having lost two straight in it. Boston has won three straight coming into this one, while Montreal has lost four in a row. Jaroslav Halak is expected in net for the visiting side and he's 4-1-3 with a 2.56 GAA, while Montreal's Carey Price is 10-6-3 with a 2.89 GAA. The pick: Boston has seen the total go under in 42 of its last 62 after alowing four or more goals in its previous contest, while Montreal has seen the total dip under in 16 of its last 24 after three or more consecutive losses. This number is high. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bruins/Canadiens. |
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11-25-19 | Magic v. Pistons UNDER 207.5 | Top | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the first meeting of the year between these clubs. Orlando has lost two in a row, while Detroit has lost four of five. The Magic's offense revolves around big man Nikola Vucevic, but he sprained his ankle in a loss to the Raptors most recently and he won't be playing tonight. Most recently the Magice fell 111-106 in Indiana, but I think this offense will struggle to reach the century mark in Detroit. The Pistons are desperate for a win, but they're also "dog tired," as this is the fourth game in six nights for Detroit. The last thing the Pistons want to do is turn this one into a "track meet" with the younger Magic. Instead, expect a lot of half court sets from the home side while on offense. From a situational stand point I think this one definitely sets up well as a lower-scoring game. The pick: But note as well that Orlando has seen the total dip below the posted number in 15 of its last 24 after two or more consecutive road losses, while Detroit has seen the total dip under in 24 of its last 35 after having lost four of its last five overall. In my opinion, this one definitely screams "under." 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Magic/Pistons. |
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11-24-19 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg OVER 51.5 | Top | 12-33 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg was 7-2 when QB Matt Nichols went down with injury this season. Zach Collaros has filled in admirably since then though and I think the QB will be pivotal in helping push this total over the number. Collaros has won all three starts with his new team (averaging 9.2 yards per attempt) while compiling a quarterback rating of 109. But the Bombers are equally adept with running the ball, averaging a league-high 148 rushing yards per game. The pick: The Ti-Cats return to the big game for the first time since 2014. Several of those players on that team that lost to the Stamps are suiting up today as well. Hamilton won a franchise record 15 games this year thanks in large part to QB Dane Evans, who has 17 TD's and eight INT's over his last eight games (last week Evans had 386 yards passing in his teams 36-16 win over Edmonton.) I believe these two competent QB's become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER in the Grey Cup. |
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11-23-19 | Predators v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one will ultimately push this total over the posted number once it's all said and done. The Predators are desperate after losing eight of their last nine games. Unfortunately though they've allowed at least five goals in three of their last four games. Now they face the defending champs, who after a three-game losing streak, have turned things around with two straight victories (most recently beating Calgary 5-0.) The pick: The Blues have only given up one goal over their last two home games, but I think St. Louis will have its hands full here from what I expect to be an extremely attacking Nashville side. Clearly the Predators will be out to dictate the pace. Note as well that Nashville has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of four already this season after three straight games at home, while St. Louis has seen the total fly over in seven of its last ten vs. teams with losing records. This number is a tad low. 10* TOTAL NET PROFITS on the OVER Preds/Blues. |
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11-23-19 | Liberty v. Virginia UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-55 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are eligible for a bowl. Liberty is 6-4 and Virginia is 7-3. I'm expecting a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring game between these two non-conference opponents, each looking to improve its bowl positioning. The Cavs won this game last year, but neither team was able to break the 400 yard barrier on the offensive side. Virginia also has to be wary here not to "look ahead" to its game vs. Virginia Tech in its regular season finale (note that three of Virginia's last five wins came by single digits.) The pick: Liberty QB Stephen Calvert has 23 TD's and just three INT's this season, but I think he'll have a difficult time here from this aggressive Virginia pass rush that can not afford to look past its opponent today. Note as well that Liberty has seen the total dip under the number in all four games it's played in already this year as the underdog, while Virginia has seen the total dip below in its last four after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This total is a tad high. 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Liberty/Virginia. |
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11-21-19 | Canucks v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams got out to decent starts to the year, but each has struggled over the last month. The Canucks are 10-12 and the Predators are only 9-11. Vancouver won't be lacking for motivation here after three straight losses. The Predators enter on a five-game losing streak. For the most part I base my Over/Under predictions (in all sports) on the overall "situation" on which each team finds itself in. Their overall offensive and defensive seasonal numbers are not part of my equation, and neither are the players on the actual field of play (or ice in this case.) From a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up as a faster-paced affair. The pick: But note as well that Vancouver has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest, while Nashville has seen the total go over in six of eight this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Vancouver beat the Predators 5-3 at home and I think a similar high-scoring affair is imminent here as well. 10* TOTAL NET PROFITS on the OVER Canucks/Predators. |
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11-19-19 | Jets v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -118 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: I expect these two hungry sides to push the pace from the opening face off until the final horn and as a result, I look for this total to soar over the number sooner, rather than later. Yes Jets' goalie Connor Hellebuyck and Predators' netminder Pekka Rinne are World class, but I believe the overall situation each side finds itself in coming into this contest, lends this one to more of an offensvie shootout. And that's because after a slow start the Jets are red hot, going 7-2-1 in their last ten. Most recently the Jets won 4-3 in Tampa Bay. The pick: The Predators are just 4-4-2 in their last ten, conceding a whopping 23 goals in that span. Most recently Nashville lost 7-2 to the Blackhawks, outshooting Chicago 41-17. As stated off the top, I look for a fast paced game from start to finish here, which will help in pushing this one over the number once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Jets/Predators. |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bears are 4-5 and the Rams are 5-4. Each has struggled mightily this year, but both have an opportunity to get things heading in the other direction with a victory here today. It's an important game for both struggling teams and I envision this one being a wide open "shootout," rather than a low-scoring "chess match." LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 17-12 loss to the Steelers last week, while the Bears snapped a four-game slide with a 20-13 victory over the Lions. While both those games were low-scoring and while each has struggled to put points on the board, I think the stage is now set for Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky and Rams' pivot Jared Goff, to shine. The pick: Chicago is getting a balance on offense now with its run game, as David Montgomery has 235 yards and three TD's over his past three weeks. Trubisky himself will benefit here from a Rams' defense which is allowing 240 yards per game through the air. The Bears are even worse against the pass though, allowing 253 yards per game through the air. Neither team is going to win this game on the ground. As stated off the top, I think the stage is now set for these two QB's to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Play the over. 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the Bears/Rams OVER. |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles OVER 44.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 148 h 40 m | Show | |
The set-up: Last year the Eagles needed to run the table near the end of the season to even make the playoffs and after a terrible start this season, that's the case again in 2019/20. The Pats though come in off their bye week and ready to take out their frurstrations after falling 37-20 to the Ravens two weeks ago. The Eagles though continue to defy the odds and they enter playing their best ball of the season after two straight victories. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: But note that the Pats have seen the total go over in three of their last four after their bye-week as well, while Philly has seen the total soar over in three of four as an underdog already this year. When taking into account the situational and trend based factors listed above, I'm expecting this one to fly over the number soon, rather than later. 8* play on the Pats/Eagles OVER. |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 52 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 144 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans is 7-2, but it comes in off a terrible 26-9 loss at home to The Falcons. Tampa Bay is only 3-6 and it broke a four-game slide with a 30-27 win over the Cardinals last time out. Yes the Bucs are allowing the most receiving yards in the NFL this year, but they catch Drew Brees clearly still working through some issues. I have every confidence that Brees will eventually return to his normal dominating self, but I believe he will in fact struggle again here today. Note that Tampa has the BEST rushing defense, which turns the Saints into an incredibly one-dimensional team. The pick: The Saints are also better against the run than pass, but after last week's poor effort, New Orleans also catches a break here facing Jameis Winston, who enters with a poor 17:14 TD:INT. Note that the Saints have seen the total go under in six of their last seven as a road favorite, while TB has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect these two struggling teams to continue to struggle with consistency and play the under. 10* play on the Saints/Bucs UNDER. |
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11-17-19 | Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 50.5 | 29-3 | Win | 100 | 144 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: Atlanta inexplicably beat the Saints 26-9 last week. QB Matt Ryan is suiting up today for the Falcons and I don't think that's going to do the offense any favors. Both teams will be fighting for a victory here, but what was most impressive last week for ATL was clearly its defensive play. The pick: The Panthers appeared to have gotten things figured out with rookie QB Kyle Allen, but the team has come back down to Earth of late, winning one of their last three and getting outscored 95-59 in the process. Carolina has to double down on the defensive side of the ball today and the unit does catch a break facing the Falcons "on again, off again" offense. Note that ATL has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in seven of its last tne vs. teams with losing records. This number is a tad high. 8* play on the Falcons/Panthers under. |
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11-17-19 | Broncos v. Vikings OVER 38.5 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 144 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Broncos beat the Browns at home and then had their bye-week off to prepare for this one. Broncos' QB Brandon Allen has a golden opportunity for the rest of the season to try and get his own personal stock to rise and with nothing to lose here, I think the visitors "open up the playbook" this afternoon. The pick: The Vikes are known for their hard-nosed defense, but it's been the offense which is mainly responsible for Minnesota's surge over the last few weeks. Cousins most recently went for 220 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Cowboys. I think Denver pushes the pace and I expect the Vikes' progression to continue here as well. This number is just a tad low. 8* play on Broncos/Vikes OVER. |
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11-17-19 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two of the best teams in the AFC collide in this one and while each possesses a unique and explosive signal caller under center, I believe it'll be the defensive units which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Baltimore has a string of tough games upcoming and I think the home side gets caught looking ahead. The Texans come in out of their bye, but clearly the game plan will be to try and keep the ball out of Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson's hands as much as possible. Overall Houston allows just 21 PPG. The pick: The Ravens' defense is also underrated, conceding only 21 PPG themselves. Houston has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 15 after a win by 21 points or more, while Baltimore has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven off a win vs. a division rival. Expect these two hungry sides to battle to lower-scoring under once it's all said and done. 8* play on the UNDER Texans/Ravens. |
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11-16-19 | Columbia v. Virginia OVER 119.5 | Top | 42-60 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia is 2-0 and it takes on Ivy League member Columbia today, which is 1-2 to start. The Lions failed to qualify for the Ivy League confernece tournament last year after finishing 10-18 overall. Columbia is led by dynamic guard Mike Smith, who is averaging 21.3 PPG. Overall the Lions have five players who average between 8 and 10 points. The pick: The Cavaliers lost many faces from last year's NCAA Tournament winning squad, but so far it's dominated early, beating Syracuse 48-34 and James Madison 65-34. Both games have fallen well below the posted number, but I think finally the Cavs put the foot on the gas on the offensive end here. Note that Columbia has seen the total go over in seven of its last eight after a home victory, while Virginia has seen the total sneak over in 13 of its last 21 after allowing 50 points or less in its previous contest. This number is a tad low, play the over. 10* SUPER-SHOCKER on the OVER Columbia/Virginia. |
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11-15-19 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 216.5 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies are starting to find their identity and that's translated into victories on the court. Back-to-back wins have Memphis hungry for more vs. Utah, which comes in holding opponents to under 100 PPG so far in the early going. This is a great situational play. The pick: As note that Memphis is right at the bottom of the league in points allowed in the paint, and Jazz center Rudy Gobert is the most efficient player in the league in the post. Look for the Jazz to try and slow this one down and control while on offense and as such, expect this total to stay well below the posted number once the final horn sounds. 10* TOTAL SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Jazz/Grizzlies. |
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11-15-19 | Flyers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes Ottawa allows 3.33 GPG, but it comes in playing much better defensively and it's resulted in three wins out of its last four games. The Flyers four-game win streak was snapped in a loss to the Capitals in their last game, as Philadelphia managed just a single goal in defeat. Brian Elliot gets the call in net for the visitors and he's 4-2-1 with a 2.88 GAA. The pick: The home side goes with Anders Nilsson, and he's 4-4-1 with a 2.98 GAA so far. Note as well that Philly has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six vs. clubs with losing records, while Ottawa has seen the total dip under in five of its last six home games when the total is set at six or higher. Look for this one to turn into a classic goaltenders battle. 10* TOTAL NET RIPPER on the UNDER Flyers/Senators. |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -107 | 85 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a big game for both teams. Cleveland picked up a win over the Bills last Sunday to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Another victory here on Thursday night vs. a red hot Steelers team which has won four straight will be paramount in keeping that dream alive. Pittsburgh has won four straight. Both teams have struggled to put points on the board and each has been carried by its defensive play to this point. But I think the narrative on that will change tonight on the short week. The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game (including 2-0 this year), while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in four of its last five following a home victory. So far these starting QB's have been terrible this year, but each will be given the green light to operate tonight. I think this number is just a little low. 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Steelers/Browns. |
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11-13-19 | Capitals v. Flyers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have done well to open the year. Washington is 13-2-1 and Philadelphia is 10-5-2. The Capitals have been scoring at a prodigious rate to open the year, averaging 4.02 GPG and they've been allowing 3.20. But the Flyers are 6-1-1 at home and they've been getting exceptional play from Brian Elliot and Carter Hart in the net. The pick: On paper this one clearly appears as if this will once again be a high-scoring affair, but I believe the value has now swung the other way finally. Note that Washington has in fact seen the total go under in two of three vs. the division this year. Also note that the Flyers have seen the total go under in five of six this year when playing with two days rest. This number is a tad high. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the under Caps/Flyers. |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 174 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: These are the top two teams in the NFC West. They're quite possibly the best two teams in the entire NFC overall as well. The 49ers are undefeated at 8-0, while Seattle is 7-2. Last week San Francisco's vaunted defense looked pretty ordinary in the 49ers closer than expected 28-25 victory in Arizona. Now the 49ers have to contend with another mobile QB, except this one is putting up MVP numbers and has a ton of experience. The Hawks aren't going to sit back and wait for San Francisco to make a mistake, they'll be going after San Fran's defense again at every opportunity. The pick: Wilson has 22 TD's and just one INT so far, so San Fran's defense isn't going to get too many opportunities anyways. I think from a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. Additionally note that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in interestingly nine of its last 11 after a win by six points or less, while San Fran has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Hawks/49ers. |
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11-11-19 | Coyotes v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona started off the season red hot, but it's come back down to Earth of late after losing three straight. Still, the Coyotes enter at 9-6-2. If the Coyotes have any shot at pulling off the big upset today, clearly they'll have to do what they do best and that's slow this one down to a snails pace and grind out the victory. Washigton has won six straight and ten of its last 11. The pick: Arizona averages 2.82 GPG and washington allows 3.06 goals. Washington averages 4.06 GPG, but the Coyotes concede just 2.41. Additionally note that Arizona has seen the total go under the number in six of its last seven vs. clubs with winning records, while Washington has seen the total dip under in three of its last four non-conference games. I think this one gets decided by the men between the pipes. Play the under. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Coyotes/Capitals. |
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11-10-19 | James Madison v. Virginia OVER 124.5 | Top | 34-65 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 1-0 to open the new season. James Madison has plenty of experience and its offense was the main story line after crushing the Charlotte 49ers in its opener. Virginia looked sharp in its opening night road win in Syracuse, holding the Orange to just 34 points. The Dukes looked decent defensively vs. Charlotte, but I think they'll have their hands full with the defending champs on their own floor. The pick: Virginia CAN NOT be too happy with its win over Syracuse, as it shot only 40 percent from the floor, went a poor 4 of 25 from range, while also committing 15 turnovers. The Cavs are going to be looking to get their offense untracked here and with the home side opening things up, I look for this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER James Madison/Virgina. |
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11-10-19 | Panthers v. Packers OVER 47.5 | 16-24 | Loss | -104 | 147 h 48 m | Show | |
The set-up: Carolina is 5-3 and the Packers are 7-2. Carolina has won five of six since Cam Newton got injured and Kyle Allen took over. Panthers' RB Christian McCaffrey is having an unreal season and he led the charge in an impressive victory over the Titans last weekend. The Packers will have to keep pace with their surging visiting side and Aaron Rodgers and company certainly won't be lacking for motitavtion after laying an egg in San Diego last weekend. The pick: Rogers has 17 TD's and just two INT's this season. That includes having three straight games with multiple TD's and not INT's. Kyle Allen did not look good in the game on the road vs. San Francisco, and clearly Lambeau is going to be a difficult task for the rookie as well. These offensive units are "firing on all cylinders" and I expect them to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Play the over. 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the over Panthers/Packers. |
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11-10-19 | Cardinals v. Bucs UNDER 53 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards are off a tough 28-25 home loss to the 49ers, while Tampa Bay lost a heart-braker in a 40-34 OT setback vs. the Seahawks in Seattle. While each club comes in off a high-scoring loss in its last action, I believe the stage is set for much more of a defensive affair in this one. Arizona is in third in the NFC West, but it's still won three of its last five games. The season is on the line here for the Cards essentially this weekend. Note that Cards' QB Kyler Murray has 2,229 passing yards with nine TD's and four INT's, while also posting 313 rushing yards. Also note that Murray has suffered 29 sacks. The pick: Tampa's lost four in a row and it hasn't won a game at home all year. Head coach Bruce Arians is an offensive minded coach and clearly he's not going to be happy coming into this one. Arians won't go down quietly though. Tampa QB Jameis Winston has 2,407 passing yards with 16 TD's and ten INT's. Winston has suffered 30 sacks this year. Look for the home side intstead to lean heavily on RB's Peyton Barber (277 yards, three TD's) and Ronald Jones Jr (381, three TD's), while on offense. Finally note that Arizona has already seen the total go under the number in three of its four games on the road this year, while TB has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as a home favorite. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Cards/Bucs. |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 47 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 86 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a big game for both of these hungry AFC sides. The Chargers are 4-5 and the Raiders are 4-4. Funnily enough, the Chargers could be heading to London next year, while the Raiders are on their way to Vegas. LA though is coming off back-to-back wins over the Bears and Packers and with its season essentially on the line, it's safe to say that Philip Rivers and company won't be "sitting back" and waiting for the home side to make a mistake. Melvin Gordon missed the first few games because of a contract dispute for LA, but the big RB is now finally back into "game shape" and it's opened things up considerably for Rivers to properly operate. The pick: The Raiders' defense is injured and it gave up more than 400 yards and three TD's to the Lions in their latest outing. Note that Oakland has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year. DeShaun Watson torched the Raiders' secondary and it gave up six TD's to Aaron Rodgers the week before that. Derek Carr is also going to be given the "green light" to air things out as Oakland's offense will once again have to carry the load this week. I think these two gun-slinging QB's become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad low. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Chargers/Raiders. |
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11-07-19 | Canadiens v. Flyers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal is 8-5-2 and it comes in on top form, having won four of its last five. Montreal is also 4-2-2 on the road this season. Habs' netminder Carey Price is 7-4-1 with a 2.75 GAA this year and he's 15-11-1 with a 2.52 GAA lifetime vs. Philadelphia. The pick: The Flyers are 7-5-2 overall and coming off a 4-1 win over Carolina. Philly is 5-1-1 on its own ice and goalie Carter Hart is 4-3-1 with a 2.93 GAA this year. Four of these team's last five in this series have fallen "under" the number and I definitely expect that trend to continue with these two competent netminders squaring off on Thursday night. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Habs/Flyers. |
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11-06-19 | 76ers v. Jazz OVER 212 | Top | 104-106 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia lost its first game of the year in Phoenix last time out. The Jazz are unbeaten at home and so far this season they've seen every game go "under" the posted total. With Philadelphia looking to get its host "out of its comfort zone" by pushing the pace and trying to extend the defense, I think this total finally goes over the posted number. The pick: The Jazz may be undefeated at home, but they enter off a loss to the Clippers and they'll be eager to return to the winners circle as well. Note that Philly has already seen the total go over the number in three of four on the road this year, while Utah has seen the total soar over in 15 of its last 25 after two or more SU losses. Philadelphia is back to full strength with Joel Embiid returning to the line-up and I expect this deep visiting side to push the tempo from the opening tip, until the final horn. This number is a tad low. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER 76ers/Jazz. |
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11-06-19 | Virginia v. Syracuse OVER 130 | Top | 48-34 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia is the defending national champion, so clearly Syracuse will be out to push the pace and get the Cavs "out of their comfort zone." The Orange actually enter the season "firing on all cylindres," winning two exhibition games and then going to Italy and winning all four games over there as well. This early chemistry in my opinion is going to help in pushing this total over the number. The pick: Virginia has new faces, with six players missing from last year's suffocating defensive squad. The Cavs got the job done last year by slowing things down, but I have a hard time seeing this group duplicating that feat this season. And especially on Opening night vs. this Orange side which is playing at an extremely high level before the season has even started. When you add it all up, this one has "over" written all over it. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Virginia/Syracuse. |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio OVER 54.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -108 | 33 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami Ohio won last year's contest 30-28 and I expect a similar hard-fought and ultimately higher-scoring game here as well. That victory snapped a five-game win streak in the series for Ohio. Miami Ohio is 4-4 and 3-1 in Conference play and it comes in confident after winning its last two games, including a 23-16 road victory over Kent State in its most recent. Ohio is also 4-4 overall and 3-1 in MAC play, most recently pulling away for a 34-21 victory over Ball State. The winner will take over first place in the MAC. Brett Gabbert is the QB for the RedHawks and he has 1360 passing yards and four receivers with 100 receiving yards. Note that the Bobcats allow 446.5 YPG on the defensive side. The pick: Ohio though has scored 78 points over its last two games (both victories) and I expect the home side to open up the playbook and push the pace again here as well. Bobcats' QB Nathan Rourke has 1,743 passing yards with ten TD's and five INT's so far. Note that Miami Ohio has seen the total go over the number in its last four after two straight wins over a conference rival, while Ohio has seen the total go over in 11 of its last 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low. 10* TOTAL BEATDOWN on the OVER Miami Ohio/Ohio. |
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11-04-19 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 223 | Top | 109-114 | Push | 0 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: These are two of the hottest teams in the league, as Phoenix is 4-2 and Philadelphia is 5-0. The 76ers managed a one point win over the Blazers in their first road game. Note that 51.8 percent of Philly's point come in the paint. Also note that the 76ers rank among the best in the league in assists and rebounding. They also lead the league in steal with 11.4 per game. The pick: The Suns are led by Devin Booker, but they now have Frank Kaminsky and Ricky Rubio to help until big man Deadre Ayton returns. The weakness for both teams comes on the defensive end and that's exactly where I believe each will concentrate tonight in this non-conference matchup. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Philly has seen the total dip under in 20 of its last 30 after allowing 120 points or more, while the Suns have seen the total dip below the posted number in 21 of their last 36 as a home dog of six points or less. This number is a tad high. 10* play on the UNDER 76ers/Suns. |
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11-04-19 | Predators v. Red Wings OVER 6 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Nashville won four in a row, but it's since lost two straight. Clearly the Predators are going to be out to push the pace from start to finish as they look to get untracked. Overall the offense is averaging 3.86 GPG for the Predators, so I expect a return to the "norm" here vs. this suspect Red Wings' defensive unit. Detroit got off to a great start this season, but it's been all downhill since. One of the lone bright spots was its 5-3 win over the Predators in Nashville. The pick: The Wings won't be rolling over though either as they try to desperately get back into the win column. Detroit is averaging only 2.20 GPG, but goaltenders Jimmy Howard (2-6, 3.67 GAA) and Jonathan Bernier (2-4-1, 3.50) are both struggling mightily now as well. With each team pushing the pace from the opening face-off until the final horn, look for this one to fly over the posted number sooner, rather than later. 10* play on the OVER Predators/Red Wings. |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 211.5 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: So far every single Jazz came has fallen "under" the number this year. The Clippers have seen the total go under in three straight. These teams have played each other already this year and that total went "under" the number. The Jazz enter off a poor loss to the Kings and they'll be extra motivated here to get back on track after that pathetic performance. The Clippers average 114 PPG and they'll be looking to get the visitors out of their "comfort zone" by pushing the pace. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one finally sets up as more of a "shootout" than a defensive affair. The pick: Note as well that Utah has seen the total soar over the number in nine of its last 13 off an upset loss as a road favorite, while LA has seen the total soar over in 13 of its last 21 in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. With the Clippers indeed playing with revenge here as well, there's no question in my mind that this one has "high-scoring shootout" written all over it. Play the over. 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Jazz/Clippers. |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 128 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Has New England been "tested" this year on the defensive side of the ball? So far the Patriots are putting up historic numbers defensively, but many pundits claim that they've yet to face a "real" offense. Baltimore's versatile pivot Lamar Jackson definitely is a challenge for any team, but I still believe that the Pats' unit will be more than "up for it." Note that Baltimore may be 5-2, but it's schedule certainly hasn't been "murderers row" to this point either. And will rest lead to rust? The Patriots are pounding out convincing wins each and every week, but the Ravens will have to quickly try to regain their form after the extra time off. Clearly the home side will have to get out and push the pace of this one if it has any hopes of pulling off an upset vs. the Pats' strong defense today. The pick: Note that New England has seen the total in five of its last seven as a road favorite of three points or less, while Baltimore has seen the total soar over in six of its last seven after allowing 17 points or less in two straight. The overall situation combined with these strong O/U trends make the "over" the correct call here. 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Pats/Ravens. |
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11-03-19 | Flames v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Capitals have seen the total go over in seven straight and when they defeated the Flames 5-3 in Calgary earlier in the season, that total also went "over" the number. Calgary enters off a 3-0 win over the Blue Jackets though, and could come into this one flat. The last thing the visitors can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to "hang" with the faster-paced home side though obviously. Cam Talbot gets the call in net for the visitors and he's 1-2-0 with a 2.46 GAA so far. He'll face opposite Washington's Braden Holtby, who has won four of his last five starts. The pick: Note thought that Calgary has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Washington has seen the total dip under in 37 of its last 67 vs. teams with losing records. I expect Calgary to slow this one down as it tries to revenge the earlier setback at home and close out its four game trip on a high note. This number is a little high. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Flames/Capitals. |
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11-03-19 | Titans v. Panthers OVER 41 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a "make or break" game for both teams in many respects. The Titans are 4-4 and the Panthers are 4-3. The Panthers were on a four-game win streak until last week's 51-13 setback to San Francisco. Tennessee enters off a 27-23 win over Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill was 21 of 33 for 193 yards and three TD's for the Titans last weekend. Panthers' QB Kyle Allen has filled in admirably for Cam Newton, entering with a 4-1 record and I think these two hungry QB's lay everything on the line today for their teams as they get out to push the pace from start to finish. The pick: Tennessee has seen the total go over in its last four as a road dog of seven points or less, while Carolina has seen the total soar over in nine 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low. 8* pick on the OVER Titans/Panthers. |
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11-02-19 | Boise State v. San Jose State OVER 58 | Top | 52-42 | Win | 100 | 108 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Jose State Spartans are 4-4. Note that that's more victories than their last two season's combined. San Jose State needs two more wins to become eligible and I expect the home side to open up the playbook as it looks to pull off the upset. Boise State is 6-1 and ranked No. 21 in the country, but it'll be out to rebound here after a 28-25 loss to BYU last weekend. The pick: San Jose State QB Josh Love has been "under the radar" all season, as he comes in ranked No. 2 in the conference in passing yards and in eight games he's only thrown three INT's. The Spartans though are allowing the second most yards in the conference defensively (442.9), so Love has had to push the pace almost every weekend. Boise State has seen the total go over in eight of its last 12 on the road, while San Jose State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after a road victory. The numbers and situation point to the over as the correct call in this one. 10* play on the OVER Boise State/San Jose State. |
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11-02-19 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -102 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Devils come in "gassed" here after their high-scoring 4-3 loss at home to Philadelphia. The Hurricanes destroyed the Wings 7-3 just last night as well. So while both teams did play to high-scoring affairs only 24 hours previous, I'm definitely expecting a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring game here. The pick: Both teams are playing their back-up goaltenders, but as mentioned off the top, from a situational stand point I think this one sets up well as more of a defensive contest. Also note that NJ has in fact seen the total go under the number in 32 of its last 52 vs. the division, while Carolina has seen the total dip below the posted number in 41 of its last 61 vs. division opponents. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Devils/Hurricanes. |
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11-01-19 | Jazz v. Kings OVER 214.5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jazz are 4-1 and the Kings are 0-7. Neither team has been great offensively, with Utah averaging just 101 PPG, while the Kings have posted 98.6. Utah has the best defense in the league, while the Kings have one of the worst, allowing 115.6. The pick: While neither side has played to many high-scoring affairs this season, I think that trend ends here. The desperate home side will be trying to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to get off the schneid. Utah doesn't have to play brilliant defense tonight to win this game either. Note as well that Utah has in fact seen the total go over in 16 of its last 25 as a road favorite of six points or less, while Sacramento has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five vs. good defensive teams which allow 98 points or less per contest. The situation and the numbers both point to this one going over before it's all said and done. 10* play on the OVER Jazz/Kings. |
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10-30-19 | Canucks v. Kings OVER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Vancouver has been sharp on both ends of the ice. The Kings have long been viewed as being one of the top defensive clubs in the league, but that definitely is not the case this year as LA comes to the Pacific Northwest as the worst on that end of the ice in the entire NHL. Vancouver has won three of its last four and two were blowout victories. The pick: LA won't be rolling over after losing three in a row and getting outscored 15-4 in the process, most recently falling 5-1 to the Hawks. Back on October 9th the Canucks hammered the Kings 8-2 and they're averaging over five goals over their last five games. With the desperate home side pushing the pace as well, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Canucks/Kings. |
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10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 214.5 | Top | 96-110 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of 3-1 teams collide in this one. So far all three of Utah's games have fallen below the posted number and in three previous pre-season games as well. The Clippers though are the highest scoring team in the league and I think the home side will finally get out and push the pace here. LA is averaging 125 PPG and won't be taking anything for granted here after falling 130-122 at Phoenix, surrendering 75 second half points to the Suns. LA rebounded with a win at home and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last eight off a home no cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, while Utah has seen the total soar over in 48 of its last 78 after playing a road game. I think the Clippers control the tempo. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the over Clippers/Jazz. |
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10-28-19 | Jazz v. Suns OVER 217.5 | Top | 96-95 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 2-1 and looking to build. So far the Jazz have seen the total "under" the number in all three of their games, but I expect that trend to end here as they look to get out and match the pace of the home side. The Suns have been incredbily competitive to this point, as they're a perfect 3-0 ATS (I had Phoenix in its outright win over the Clippers on Saturday!) The Suns aren't settling for anything, instead they're pushing the pace and attacking teams aggressively. The pick: Utah averages 100 PPG, and it allows 90. Phoenix averages 120 PPG and it concedes 108. If this were in Utah, I'd likely also being playing the "over." These are two young teams and I expect a wide open affair. Finally note that Utah has in fact seen the total go over the number in 16 of its last 26 as a road favorite of six points or less, while the Suns have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five vs. good defensive teams which allow 98 points or less per contest. Look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Jazz/Suns. |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers UNDER 44 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The last few Monday/Thursday games have been terrible matchups and this one follows suit. With nothing to play for though, I think the Fish simply go through the motions tonight and I look for the Steelers to "control" this one while on offense, instead of trying to run up the score and "run" this downtrodden visiting side off the field. Miami is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for this one. The Steelers beat the Chargers two weeks ago and then they had their bye week. Mason Rudolph is back after suffering a concussion scare for Pittsburgh, but he'll be asked to do nothing more than to manage this game vs. the winless Dolphins, who are now in the hunt for a few top playoff picks. The pick: Note as well that Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 off a road loss, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten after covering the spread in two or more straight games. I'm banking on a low-scoring affair on Monday night. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Fish/Steelers. |
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10-28-19 | Coyotes v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams on the rise collide in this game on Monday night. The Coyotes are 6-3-1 and the Sabres are 9-2-1. Arizona beat the Devils 5-3 on Friday, while the Sabres enter off a 2-0 win over the Wings. Darcy Kuemper gets the call in net for the visitors and he's 4-3-0 with a 1.87 GAA. Bufflao net-minder Carter Hutton is 6-1-0 with a 2.27 GAA thus far. The pick: Note that Buffalo has shutout its opponent in two of its last five games. Additionally note that the Coyotes have seen the total go under the number in 17 of their last 28 after playing three straight on the road. I look for these surging goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Coyotes/Sabres. |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs UNDER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -104 | 154 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers come in off a big 41-24 win over the Raiders at home, but I think they'll have their hands full with this desperate home side. Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is a big question mark this weekend and if he does play, one has to wonder how effective the dynamic pivot really will be? Matt Moore is a "clock manager," so expect to see a heavy does of LeSean McCoy and the running game from the home side will on the offensive end. The pick: The Packers' strength this year has been on the defensive side of the ball though and Moore is clearly going to be under pressure here as well. Additionally note that GB has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records, while KC has seen the total go under in seven of its last eight after having lost two of its last three games outright. This one has defensive battle written all over it, play the under. 10* play on the UNDER Packers/Chiefs. |
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10-25-19 | Jazz v. Lakers OVER 218 | Top | 86-95 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Donovan Mitchell led the way in Utah's season opening win over the Thunder. LeBron James and the Lakers though will be out to push the pace here as they try to bounce back from a season opening loss to the Clippers. Now that the Clippers destroyed the Warriors in their own building on Thursday night, the Lakers setback to the Clip Show doesn't look so bad really. Regardless, AD and The King will absolutely be out to dictate the pace of this one and with the visiting side needint to keep pace, I do indeed expec this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. The pick: And the numbers/trends/stats back us up on this one, as Utah has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 off a victory vs. a division rival, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of its last 15 off a loss vs. a division rival. All signs do indeed point to the over as the savvy call here. 10* play on the OVER Utah/Lakers. |
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10-25-19 | Capitals v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point. Washington comes in off a 4-3 loss in Edmonton just last night and I have a hard time seeing it mustering up much energy here vs. the defensive minded home side. Vancouver just finished off a 3-1 road trip as it continues to get excellent play on both ends of the ice, especially on the defensive side (having allowed just 19 goals so far this season, which is tied for No. 1 in the league!) The pick: Washington starts backup Samsonov, who is 3-1 with a 1.84 GAA, while the Canucks' Jacob Markstrom is 4-2 with a 2.16 GAA. I expect Washington to come in with "heavy legs" and I look for Vancouver's strong defensive play to continue here. Look for these two goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Vancouver Canucks UNDER. |
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10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 224.5 | Top | 141-122 | Win | 100 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers came out and dominated the Lakers 112-102 on Opening night and now they have another difficult task facing a new look Warriors team which finished runner up to the Raptors last season. Kawhi Leonard looked great for the Clippers, going for 30 points and six boards, while Lou Williams added 21 points off the bench. The Clippers are still incredibly deep and talented without Paul George in the line-up and there's no reason not to think this unit won't be able to keep pace with the up-tempo home side. The pick: While Klay Thompson is out for the season with injury, the Warriors still have plenty of all star talent, including Steph Curry, who has now become the No. 1 go to guy on this team with Kevin Durant gone. D'Angelo Russell had a break out campaign for the Nets last year and he could truly be an X-Factor for this team. Whatever the case, I think the home side is going to be pushing the pace from start to finish. Also note that LA has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten off a home win vs. a division rival, while GS has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 23 of its last 33 vs. division opponents. I'm expecting a shootout. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Clippers/Warriors. |
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10-24-19 | Sabres v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 102 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sabres are 8-2 and the Rangers are 2-5. Most recently Buffalo came from behind to knock off the Sharks by a score of 4-3. Clearly the Rangers won't be lacking for motivation here after their slow start and their 3-2 defeat to the Coyotes in their previous outing. BUffalo has scored 17 goals over its last five games and I think that the home side will definitely have its hands full with this new look Sabres team. Carter Hutton has been amazing for Buffalo early, but the Rangers enter having lost six straight and they're going to be risking life and limb here to get off the schneid. The pick: Easier said than done for the Rangers though with goaltender Henrik Lundqvist in net, who is just 1-3 with a 3.57 GAA. With Buffalo averaging nearly four goals per game and with the Rangers desperate for a win, I think the stage is indeed set for an offensive affair. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Sabres/Rangers. |
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10-23-19 | Grizzlies v. Heat OVER 212 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies have a lot of new faces, which they hope will give a boost to a team which finished 33-49 last year. Overall Memphis averaged 103.5 PPG and it allowed 105.7. The Heat were a sub-par 39-43 a year ago, averaging 105.7 PPG and allowing 106. The pick: I handicap the first week of all sports differently than I do the rest of the regular season and I believe this one sets up great situationally, while also backed by strong ATS O/U trends. Memphis and Miami both have plenty of new faces and each team has something to prove after a poor performance last year. With pushing the pace, I expect this total to soar over sooner than later. Also note that Memphis has seen the total go OVER in 35 of its last 55 non-conference games, while Miami has seen the total soar OVER in 14 of its last 19 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, expect a higher-scoring game. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the over Grizzlies/Heat. |
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10-22-19 | Nationals v. Astros OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 54 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Two unbelievable pitchers face a couple of hard-hitting line-ups. Both Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole have incredible seasonal numbers, in the playoffs and vs. their respective opponents. It wouldn't be difficult to write a play on the "under" based entirely around their stats/numbers. But I think these two starters can still "shine" in this contest, and this total can still eclipse this very low-number. The pick: Based primarily around the fact that Washington has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten when the total in the contest is set at 7 or lower, while Houston has seen the total soar over in 11 of its last 17 after allowing four runs or less in four straight games. With time to re-focus, I believe it'll be these hard-hitting line-ups which become the main story-lines in tomorrow's summaries. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Nationals/Astros. |
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10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 231.5 | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Big changes for both teams to enter the season. The Pelicans were getting great play from rookie phenom Zion Williamson, but he's now injured and won't be playing for the first month or so. Of course Toronto is the defending champion and while many of the same pieces remain, many have left as well, including leader Kawhi Leonard. Considering the early adversity that each will have to go through, I think this number is much too hight. Offensive chemistry doesn't happen instantly and in my opinion, I think each side comes out tenative to open the 2019/20 campaign. The pick: New Orleans has also seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 non-conference games, while Toronto has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven when the total is greater than or equal to 230 points. This number is a tad high, play the under. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Pels/Raps. |
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10-22-19 | Sharks v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of a home and home set between these clubs, after San Jose fell 4-3 at home to the Sabres on Saturday. Martin Jones will be looking to bounce back in net for San Jose, he's 4-2-2 with a 2.36 GAA lifetime vs. the Sabres. Overall the Sharks are scoring 2.63 GPG and allowing 3.50. The pick: The Sabres are averaging 3.67 GPG and allowing only 2.33. Goaltender Carter Hutton is 5-0-0 with a 1.40 GAA this year for Buffalo. Note that the Sharks have already seen the total go under the number in three of four this year after allowing four or more goals, while Buffalo has seen the total go under in 21 of its last 36 when playing with two days of rest. This number is high considering the circumstances and numbers/trends listed above. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Sharks/Sabres. |
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10-21-19 | Senators v. Stars OVER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: To say these are two hungry and desperate teams would be an understatement. The Sens are 1-5-0-1 and the Stars are 2-7-0-1. Dallas finally scored the 4-1 at Philadelphia and with two whole nights off after this before a game vs. the Ducks at ome, there's no reason not to think that the home side can't build off that performance with another big effort here vs. the hapless Sens. The pick: Ottawa has been terrible, most recently getting smashed 5-2 by the Coyotes. The road ahead doesn't get any easier for the Senators, but they catch a break here facing the porous Stars' defense. While both teams have struggled to find the back of the net this year, each has been equally as horrible on the defensive end of the ice. Look for these two desperate teams to open up the pace of the play and expect this total to soar over sooner, rather than later! 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Sens/Stars. |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 44 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 59 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: New England is 6-0 and New York is 1-4. The Patriots pulled away for a 35-14 home win over the Giants, while the Jets enter off their first victory of the year in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys. I expect a more conservative style of play from the Pats in this contest though as they look to avoid the upset and to "look past" these suddenly confident Jets. New York only allows 358 total yards of offense, with 262.2 through the air and a paltry 95.8 on the ground. The pick: The strengh of the Jets is indeed on the defensive side of the ball and while the Patriots have an unreal offense, it is in fact their defense which is also "stealing the show" in New England this year. So far the Pats allow only 234.7 YPG this season, which includes an average of 161 through the air and only 73.7 on the ground. Note that New England has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 20 on the road and in 14 of its last 19 as a road favorite, while the Jets have seen the total dip under the number in nine of 13 as a home underdog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. Look for this one to stay under once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Patriots/Jets. |
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10-20-19 | Ravens v. Seahawks UNDER 49 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Baltimore is ranked 17th on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens though have a big question mark in the WR position this week with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown listed as questionable. The Seahawks are getting unreal play from QB Russell Wilson, who has 16 TD's so far and no INT's. The Hawks defense isn't what it used to be, but so far it's been better than average by posting 12 takeaways YTD. The pick: Note that Baltimore has interestingly seen the total dip under the number in 11 of its last 15 after having won two out of its last three games SU, while Seattle has seen the total go below the posted number in 11 of its last 17 as a favorite. This number is high in my opinion. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Ravens/Hawks. |
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10-19-19 | Air Force v. Hawaii UNDER 64 | Top | 56-26 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of 4-2 teams from the Mountain West collide late on Saturday night and when the smoke finally clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to sneak under the posted number. These are two effecient, but different offenses. The Falcons run the ball and the Warriors throw it. Air Force enters off a 43-24 win over Fresno State, while Hawaii enters off a beatdown loss to Boise State. While each played to a higher-scoring affair in their last outing, I expect more of a defensive battle here. The pick: The Falcons will be out to control while on offense and I believe that's going to help in pushing this total under the number. Additionally note that Air Force has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 42 points or more in its previous contest, while Hawaii has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a tad high. 10* play on the UNDER AF/Hawaii. |
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10-15-19 | Red Wings v. Canucks UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Wings are off to a successful 3-2 start, but they're off a terrible 5-2 loss at home to the Leafs. The Wings start their Western swing in Vancouver and they'll be looking to get the trip started off quickly. Red Wings goaltender Jimmy Howard had his hands full with the Leafs high-powered attack, but now he faces the Canucks' anemic offense. The pick: Vancouver is now 2-2 after holding on for a 3-2 shootout win over the Flyers in its last outing. So far Vancouver netminder Jacob Markstrom has shone in the early going, as he comes in with a solid .926 save percentage and 2.23 GAA. I think these two non-conference teams which struggle to score at times play to a low-scoring under on Tuesday night. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Wings/Nucks. |
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10-15-19 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston lost 7-0 in Game 1, before then rebounding with a 3-2 extra innings effort in Game 2. With the shift in venue, I'm finally expecting a higher-scoring game here. The Astros were 47-26 on the road this year, but they lost both road games to the Rays. Clearly they'll be out to end that trend. Gerrit Cole gets the nod for the visitors, while Louis Severino toes the slab for the home side. The pitchers: Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) has been exceptional this season and so far in the playoffs, but I think he finally takes a step back here. Note that he's 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts vs. the Yanks. Severino (1-1, 1.50) is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in seven career postseason starts. The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" in 35 of its last 60 after two or more consecutive home games, while New York has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 21 after allowing three runs or less in four straight games. The Yanks have to be thrilled with the split they earned over the first two games and now they're in the drivers seat. I think this one creeps over this tiny number once it's all said and done. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Astros/Yankees. |
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10-14-19 | Blues v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: These are two defensive minded clubs and I'm expecting a very low-scoring defensive battle. St. Louis is 3-2 and New York is 2-3. St. Louis will be particularly focussed here after getting killed 6-3 in Montreal in their latest outing. The Isles most recently beat the Panthers 3-2. The pick: Despite the slip-up vs. Montreal, Jordan Binnington is still 2-1-1 with a 2.97 GAA. Semyon Varlamov is 1-2 with a 3.15 GAA this season and he comes off his first victory of the year, stopping 35 of 37 shots. I think the early start is a detriment to the offensive players and I look for these two World Class goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad high. 10* play on the under Blues/Islanders. |
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10-13-19 | Titans v. Broncos OVER 38 | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -113 | 150 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Tennessee is 2-3 and Denver is 1-4. Most likely neither team will see the playoffs. That said, each still has a shot if they can win this game today. This is an important game for both sub-.500 teams and as such, I look for more of a wide open affair. Last week the Titans lost 14-7 to the stingy BIlls. The Broncos saved their season (mathematically) with a 20-13 road win over the Chargers this past Sunday and I expect them to build off that performance with their best effort at home so far. The pick: Both teams are ranked in the lower half on the offensive side of the ball, but I think that Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota push the pace of this one on the road, similar to their Week 1 destruction of the Cleveland Browns. Joe Flacco and Phillip Linday come off their best performance for the Broncos and there's no reason not to think that they won't be given the green light here as well. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road dog of 7 points or less, while Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. The situation points to this total flying over this low number sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Titans/Broncos. |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns UNDER 47.5 | 32-28 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cleveland fell flat on Monday Night Football in San Francisco, but it still has a very genuine shot at competing for the division crown if it can string a few wins together. First things first is Seattle, which comes off a thrilling victory over the Rams at home. Seattle's weakness the last few years has been its play on the road and while the victory over LA looks impressive on paper, the Rams have looked plain terrible this season. This is a trap game for Seattle and it has to be careful to not look past its hungry opponent. The pick: Baker Mayfield and the Browns are better team when they run the ball and try to control things while on offense. It's when they're playing from behind or trying to be too fancy that the Browns struggle. I expect a very conservative style of play from the home side today as it looks to once again limit its stupid mistakes. Note that Seattle has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 13 as a home dog. This number is high, play the under. 8* play on the under Hawks/Browns. |
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10-13-19 | Panthers v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | 37-26 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 59 m | Show | |
The set-up: A trip across the pond is going to lead to a lower-scoring under in this one. This is the second meeting of the season between the divisional foes and in the first one the Bucs won a low-scoring 20-14 affair. Tampa comes in off a loss to New Orleans by a score of 31-24, while the Panthers have won three in a row since losing to the Bucs. The Panthers have been getting exceptional play from QB Kyle Allen, but I think the rookie will be more effected by anyone on this trip to London. Look for Carolina to once again lean heavily on RB Christian McCaffrey, who in fact leads the league right now with 587 rushing yards and 31 catches for 279 yards. Also note that the Panthers have been great defensively since the loss to Tampa, posting 16 sackes over their last three games. The pick: Tampa's pass defense has been terrible, which was completely evident in last week's loss to the Saints and Teddy Bridgewater. The Bucs though do rank second against the run, a unit which is clearly going to be tested early and often today by McCaffrey. The Panthers only average 264 yards per game through the air, so Tampa's porous secondary catches a break today. When you add up all of the above factors, the savvy call in this one is on the under in my opinion. 8* play on the under Panthers/Bucs. |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State OVER 40 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 127 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 4-1, thanks in large part to suffocating defensive play. Wyoming has won three of the last four in this series. Last week SDSU picked up a big road win over Colorado State and there's no reason not to think that the Aztecs can't carry that momentum over here as well. SDSU also won't be taking anything for granted here after losing three of its last four in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Wyoming averages 31 PPG and it'll be playing to its strengths in this one. And that means a steady dose of airing the ball out whenver possible. SDSU will also be taking advantage of the fact that the Cowboys are terrible against the pass, ranked 127th in the country by allowing 329 yards through the air on average. The Aztecs' offense finally comes alive at home vs. this porous Wyoming secondary in my opinion. I also expect the visitors to push the pace from start to finish. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, look for this total to sneak over this extremely low number. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Wyoming/SDSU. |
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10-12-19 | Maple Leafs v. Red Wings UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Leafs are 2-2-1 and they'll be looking for a much better defensive performance here in my estimation after getting embarrassed 7-3 at home by Tampa Bay most recently. Previous to that the Leafs lost 6-5 in a shootout to the Habs and 3-2 to the Blues. Toronto goaltender Frederick Anderson is now 2-2-0 with a 3.75 GAA. Anderson has to be feeling confident here though as he's 7-1 with a 2.60 GAA lifetime vs. Detroit. The pick: Detroit won't be rolling over though. The Red Wings enter at 3-1, most recently taking down the Ducks 3-1. Netminder Jonathan Bernier (2-0-0 on the year with a 2.50 GAA and a .912 save percentage) made 33 saves. There's been plenty of scoring for these two teams in the early going, but I believe the stage is now set for more of a defensive affair. I'm on the under. 10* TOTAL EXPRESS on the UNDER Leafs/Wings. |
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10-11-19 | Colorado v. Oregon OVER 56.5 | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Oregon is 4-1 and Colorado is 3-2. This is a big mid-season game for both Pac 12 Schools and because of that, I'm expecting more of a wide-open shootout. Colorado lost to Arizona last weekend, but it has a come from behind win over Nebraska and an upset road victory over Arizona State so far. The Ducks have looked great despite a collapse vs. Auburn in their opener, relling off four straight victories. This game features two of the best QB's in the conference and I believe they'll be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. The pick: The Buffs' Steven Montez is completing 67 percent of his passes this year and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Montez will be given the green light early and often here as Colorado's secondary is terrible. And that's good news for Oregon' QB Justin Herbert, as the Buffs are allowing 9.39 yards per attempt. The visitors have no choice but to try and keep pace. I think from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it. 10* play on the OVER Colorado/Oregon. |
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10-10-19 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs UNDER 7 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams are known for their offensive explosiveness, but the Bolts come to Toronto sitting at 1-2, while the hosts are just 2-2. Tampa will be wary here as it fell 4-3 to Florida, before then losing 4-3 to Carolina. The goods news for TB fans is that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly is 10-5-1 with a 2.27 GAA lifetime vs. the Leafs. The pick: Toronto will also be "clamping" down as it looks to get back into the winners circle, as a 6-5 shootout loss to the Habs was followed by a 3-2 loss to the Blues. Both games at home. Leafs goaltender Fredrick Anderson is only 3-9-1 with a 3.69 GAA vs. the Lightning lifetime, but note that Toronto has seen the total dip under the number in 17 of its last 27 when playing with two days rest. Considering the situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, I'm banking on more of a tightly checked defensive affair. 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the Bolts/Leafs UNDER. |
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 70.5 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Appalachian State is 4-0, while Louisiana Lafayette is 4-1. The Mountaineers were 11-2 last year and they'd go on to beat these very Rajin Cajuns in the Conference Championship game. Louisiana State's only loss came against Mississippi State. App State QB Zac Thomas has been great for the undefeated Mountaineers, but the questions mark remain on the defensive side of the ball. If the Mountaineers have any hopes of progressing to a NY6 contest, then clearly they're going to have to get it figured out on that side of things. The Cajuns have been spectacular running the football though, so the home side will be sticking to its strength while on offense obviously. App State's strength on the defensive side is its run defense, which allows only 165 yards per game. The pick: Both teams have had extra time off to heal up and I believe this is going to be a battle until the final whistle. Additionally note that App State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten following a cover as a double digit favorite, while LA Lafayette has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two or more SU victories. This number is a little high. 10* TOTAL BUTT WHOOPIN on the UNDER App State/Lafayette. |
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10-08-19 | Bruins v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston is 2-0. Las Vegas is 2-0. These two undefeated non-conference powerhouses collide on Tuesday night and in my opinoin, it's going to be the men between the pipes who become the main storyline's in tomorrow's summaries. Las Vegas hammered the Sharks by a combined score of 9-2 to open the year, while the Bruins have beaten Dallas and Arizona. Last year the Bruins ranked No. 2 in defense and that's been the story early on as well this year. I have a hard time seeing the Knights mustering up much offense here vs. the red hot Tuukka Rask. The pick: Not to be outdone though, Las Vegas netminder Marc Andre Fleury has also been extremely sharp in the early going, allowing just the two goals so far. Note that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 30 when playing with two days rest, while Vegas has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 15 when playing with three or more days rest. This number is high. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bruins/Knights. |
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10-06-19 | Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 57 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 156 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colts are 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0. KC managed a 34-30 road win in Detroit last time out, while Indianapolis got caught looking ahead to this game after last week’s upset loss at home to the Raiders. I think a similar thing is going to happen here to the now content home side and while I’m not predicting any outright upsets or anything, I do think that the Chiefs come out and try to “control” this one, rather than run their opponent off the field with a frantic pace from start to finish. And clearly Jacoby Brissett and company can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to beat the high-flying Chiefs at their own style of game. Instead, the visitors will also definitely be out to “control” this contest while on offense. So from an overall situational stand point, there’s no question non my mind that this one sets up as more of a defensive chess match, than a wide open shootout. The pick: However also note that Indy has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 19 after one or more SU losses, while KC has seen the total dip under the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite of ten points or more. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Colts/Chiefs. |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 50 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 99 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 25 Michigan State and I’m expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle until the end today. MSU is 4-1 and 2-0 in conference, while Ohio State is 4-0 and 2-0 in Big Ten play. While Ohio State has looked solid, MSU has some question marks surrounding it after losing at home to Arizona State and then barely holing on for the win vs. Indiana last weekend. The Buckeyes come into this one after a solid 48-7 win over Nebraska. The pick: MSU averages 31 PPG, but its strength is on the defensive side where it allows only 15. Ohio State has averaged 52 PPG, while allowing just 8.6. Look for each team to try and control this one while on offense as they look to limit mistakes. I expect these top notch defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the UNDER MSU/Ohio State. |
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10-05-19 | Hurricanes v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington has come out and won back-to-back road games to open the season, beating the Blues on opening night and the Islanders in Long Island just last night. Now the Capitals return home for their first home game of the year. Carolina on the other hand beat the Montreal Canadiens at home in a shootout in its opener. Petr Mrazek was 23-14-3 last year with a 2.39 GAA. Mrazek was excellent vs. the Habs in the opener, posting 33 saves and while he lost both games vs. the Capitals last year, he posted a sharp 2.56 GAA in the setbacks. The pick: Washington has a top five offense, but after last night’s contest I expect more of a methodical pace from the Capitals here. Note that Washington goaltender Braden Holtby was 4-0 vs. the Hurricanes last year, posting a tiny 2.21 GAA in the process. I believe the stage is set for a classic goaltenders battle in this one. This number is a tad high. 10* TOTAL EXPRESS on the UNDER Hurricanes/Capitals. |
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10-04-19 | Maple Leafs v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Leafs skated to a high-scoring 5-3 win on home ice vs. the Senators to open the year, but I think they’ll have much more of a fight on their hands in Columbus on Friday night. Toronto will once again see Fredrich Anderson between the pipes, while the home side goes with Joonas Korpisalo. Note that Toronto was only 1 for 5 on the power play in its victory, but it would kill off all three penalties against it. Anderson looked good after a shaky start, going on to stop 23 of 26 shots. The pick: Columbus took out the Lightning in the first round of the playoffs last year, so expectations are high obviously for the home side this season. Columbus though lost a lot of talent to free agency, but Korpisalo was decent in a back-up role for the CBJ’s, going 10-7-3. Columbus is trying to figure out its offense and Toronto has had its fair share of issues on the road. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Leafs/Jackets. |
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10-03-19 | Bruins v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: These are two talented clubs. On both ends of the ice. Both possess World Class goaltending, but each is looking to pick things up on the offensive end this season. I believe that the numbers/trends definitely point to a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: As note that Boston has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten games played on the road in October when the total is set at either 5.5 or 6, while Dallas has seen the total soar over in 13 of its last 21 at home when the line in the game is set between -125 and +125. Bank on these two non-conference clubs putting the foot on the gas from start to finish and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 10* play on the OVER Bruins/Stars. |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. I’d consider myself primarily a “situational” handicapper. And that’s definitely the approach I take when looking at Over/unders in all sports. I do indeed feel this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. The short week isn’t going to help either team obviously. LA is coming off an atrocious loss to Tampa Bay at home, unable to slow down Jameis Winston and company defensively, while also failing completely on the offensive side. Note that Jared Goff threw three INT’s last week and the run game produced only 23 yards total. Goff threw the ball 62 times! If the Rams have any hopes of getting back on track, clearly they have to establish the run game. The pick: Seattle’s three wins have come against the Bengals, Steeler and Cardinals. Are the Rams better than these teams? Probably. Seattle had a complete meltdown at home to New Orleans two weeks ago, so clearly it won’t be looking past or taking anything for granted today facing co-division leading LA this evening. As stated off the top, from an overall “situational” stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a lower-scoring under. But note that the numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that LA has seen the total dip under in 16 of its last 24 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous game, while Seattle has seen the total go under in four of its last five after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense and to limit its overall mistakes and when also taking into account these strong trends/stats, everything points to the under as the savvy call in this one. 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rams/Hawks. |
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10-02-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -111 | 54 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m expecting a wide open “shootout” between these two high-flying Western Conference opponents. San Jose was second in the Pacific last year, while Las Vegas was third. San Jose advanced to the Western Conference Finals despite finishing the regular season with the worst team save percentage in the NHL (.889). Both San Jose goalies have struggled vs. the Knights, as Aaron Dell is 0-2-1 with a 4.46 GAA, while Martin Jones is 3-2-0 with a 3.44 GAA. San Jose got the job done with its offense last year, averaging 3.52 GPG, which was second best (the defense allowed 3.15 GPG, which was the 11th highest.) The pick: The Knights averaged 3.00 GPG and they conceded 2.78 last year. Last year the Knights were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by these very Sharks in Game 7 on a controversial call. Clearly the home side will be out to beatdown their visitors here today. When you add up all the situational factors above, as stated off the top I believe this one does indeed have “shootout” written all over it. 10* play on the over Sharks/Knights. |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 58 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The winner of the AL Wildcard plays the Astros in Houston this weekend in the ALDS. Both of these starters come into this game “hot” and I expect each to throw deep. Charlie Morton gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Sean Manaea. The pitchers: Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) is 2-2 with a 4.60 ERA in seven postseason appearances. Morton appeared in the All Star Game this year. Manaea (0-0, 1.21) returned from a 12 month absence due to a torn labrum in September and since then he’s been nearly untouchable, winning both home starts with a 2.13 ERA. The pick: Note that Manaea is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa. Morton went 1-0 with a minuscule 0.68 ERA in two starts vs. the A’s this year (note that Morton owns a 1.65 ERA in three starts at Oakland in his career as well.) This one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rays/A’s. |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a great situational play. The Bengals are 0-3 and the Steelers are 0-3. For all intents and purposes, these two teams are already planning ahead to next season. The Steelers looked horrible even before starting QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury. Last week Big Ben’s backup Mason Rudolph looked horrible against the 49ers and I don’t see anything changing here vs. the Bengals’ hungry defense. The pick: As mentioned off the top, even with Roethlisberger in the line-up, the Steelers’ offense looked poor. The Steelers are getting poor play from RB James Conner as well, who is averaging only 2.9 YPC. The Bengals almost beat the Seahawks and the Bills on the road (fumbles in the closing moments ruined the outright victory,) and it’s been because of their defensive play. I think both teams concentrate on the run as well while on offense as they try to control this contest and limit mistakes. Taking into account all of the above situational factors, I’m going to play the under. 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under Bengals/Steelers. |
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09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 49 | Top | 55-40 | Loss | -115 | 150 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Bucs are going to have a hard time moving the ball vs. this improved Rams’ defensive front. The Bucs are 1-2 and on the ropes in a tough division, while the Rams are 3-0. LA’s offense has yet to get untracked though, as their win last week on Sunday Night was anything but spectacular vs. the Rams. LA’ QB Jared Goff is definitely suffering an early season letdown compared to last year’s numbers. Jameis Winston has been hit or miss early and I think his struggles on the road continues here. The pick: Tampa’s defense has been much better with Todd Bowles directing the unit and it’ll be looking to get after Goff early and often. In fact note that the Bucs have the league’s sack leader in Shaq Barrett. Also note that LA RB Todd Gurley continues to struggle with consistency as well after returning from injury late last year. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 10* NON-CONF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Bucs/Rams. |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 67.5 | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 102 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio State has won four straight in this series, including a 36-31 home win in 2018. The Buckeyes are 4-0 and they enter off a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio last Saturday. Nebraska clearly won’t be rolling over here as it’s 3-1 and most recently it beat Illinois 42-38. These two Big Ten title contenders have played to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that this Week 5 matchup finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. The pick: Nebraska’s defense is under-rated here, it allowing only 116.7 rushing yards and 240 passing yards per game. But not to be outdone, the Buckeyes come in ranked as the second best defense in the country, conceding just 220 total yards per game. Additionally note that the Buckeyes have seen the total go under the number in four of their last six when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points, while Nebraska has seen the total dip under in four of its last five after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ohio State/Nebraska under. |
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09-27-19 | Marlins v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither starter has done well this year and I believe each will struggle in this match-up as well. The visitors hand the ball to Pablo Lopez, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez. The pitchers: Lopez (5-8, 4.96 ERA) is an atrocious 2-5 with a 7.27 ERA on the road this year. Velasquez (7-8, 4.76) was most recently shelled for four runs over four innings in a loss to the Indians on Sunday. The pick: The Phillies are out of playoff contention and they’re now just 79-80 on the year. Philadelphia will be hungry to stop its six game slide and I expect a big day at the plate from both teams here, as Miami would love nothing more than to kick the home side while its down. Facing these two suspect starting pitchers, everything definitely points to these line-ups being the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the over. 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Marlins/Phillies. |
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09-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -118 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m expecting a “duel” between these two hungry hurlers. Both Kyle Freeland and Tyler Beede have had poor campaigns, but each will be eager to try and pad their stats with a strong performance while they can. The pitchers: Freeland (3-11, 6.84 ERA) comes back from injury and he worked two innings vs. the Dodgers last Saturday. He’s 1-1 vs. San Fran this year and a sharp 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 starts for his career. Beede (5-10, 5.23) has been roughed up twice by the Rockies this year, but note that he’s been at his best at home this season (3.99 ERA at home, compared to 6.28 on the road.) The pick: This series will conclude the Rockies road campaign. The Giants are paying respects to manager Bruce Bochy before he retires. Yesterday’s contest ended 2-1 and I anticipate another low-scoring affair here. 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rockies/Giants. |
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09-25-19 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Michael Wacha, while the home side goes with Merrill Kelly. The pitchers: Wacha (6-7, 4.63 ERA) has been decent of late, but note that he’s a terrible 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA on the road this season. Kelly (12-14, 4.31) has been decent of late as well, but he’s just 2-3 with a 5.66 ERA in his last five day home games. The pick: While yesterday’s game went well under the number (3-2 D-Backs in extra frames), Wednesday afternoon’s contest definitely sets up as more of a slugfest in my opinion (note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in 23 of its last 38 on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Arizona has seen the total soar over the number in 18 of its last 28 vs. teams with winning records.) Everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Cards/D-Backs. |
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09-24-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this total will sneak above the posted number. The Marlins hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara, while the home side counters with Noah Syndergaard. Miami won 8-4 last night, pushing the Mets five games behind the Brewers in the wild card race. New York is playing for its playoff life, while the Fish are looking to deliver the final nail in the coffin. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this sets up as a “slug-fest.” The pitchers: Alcantara (5-14, 4.00 ERA) most recently was rocked for five run over five innings in a loss to the D-Backs on Wednesday. Syndergaard (10-8, 4.22) was most recently shelled for four runs over 5 2/3’s innings vs. the Rockies on Wednesday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as an underdog of +200 or higher, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 as a -200 favorite or higher. This number is low considering all of the above factors. 10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER Marlins/Mets. |
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