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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-08-19 | Heat v. Kings -2.5 | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Miami at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I like the Kings here after they made moves to strengthen their team prior to the trade deadline. Unlike previous years where Sacramento was a seller, we saw it do some buying this year and I expect the players to get an emotional boost from that. Note that the Kings are already an impressive 17-11 straight-up at home this season. Here, they'll benefit from staying home for a fifth consecutive game. The Heat did win in Portland two nights ago, but that was their first victory in their last four games. They've actually posted three straight road wins but I believe some regression is in order. We've seen Miami post a strange home-road dichotomy this season, going 11-16 in South Beach but 14-11 on the road. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-08-19 | Bucks v. Mavs +8 | Top | 122-107 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Bucks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and certainly look unstoppable on the heels of five consecutive SU and ATS victories. However, here they'll be playing their seventh game in the last 13 nights in a seventh different city. The Mavs are no slouches here at home, where they own one of the strongest home court edges in the NBA, having gone 19-7 SU. Like the Bucks, the Mavs have also been tearing it up ATS, having reeled off five straight victories and gone 7-0-1 ATS over their last eight contests. The Bucks haven't won a game here in years. In last season's meeting on this floor the Mavs won by 32 points. Take Dallas (10*). |
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02-07-19 | Lakers v. Celtics -8.5 | 129-128 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Celtics as they host the unraveling Lakers on Thursday night. Los Angeles is obviously in complete limbo right now with the trade deadline coming up in a few hours. Maybe the roster remains intact, or maybe it will be looking for players off the street to court a team on Thursday night in Boston. Either way, I'm confident we see the Celtics show up and win this one going away. Boston is rolling along nicely right now and the beat goes on against the disjoined Lakers. Take Boston (10*). |
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02-07-19 | Raptors -9 v. Hawks | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. No doubt the Raptors have been watching what the Bucks have been doing lately and after picking up a statement win in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, I look for them to build on that performance with another rock-solid effort against the Hawks on Thursday night. Atlanta is back home following a seven-game road trip that took it all over the map. The Hawks should be a little 'fat and happy' off back-to-back wins to close out that trip. Keep in mind, those victories came against the lowly Suns and Wizards. Take Toronto (10*). |
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02-07-19 | Wolves +2 v. Magic | 112-122 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While these two teams boast similar overall records, I do feel there's a class difference that isn't being properly reflected in the line. The T'Wolves have been coming out on the wrong end of some close games lately, but I'm confident they do get it figured out tonight in Orlando. The Magic simply ran out of gas in Oklahoma City on Tuesday and I think they're a little worn down right now, showing some real inconsistency of late. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-06-19 | Rockets v. Kings +2.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Houston at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm willing to bet against the Rockets winning three road games in a row on Wednesday night in Sacramento. Houston is coming off relatively lopsided victories in Utah and Phoenix but now heads to Sacramento where the Kings are playing excellent basketball. The Kings check in 17-10 straight-up at home this season, including a perfect 3-0 on their current homestand. It would be easy for the Rockets to look past the Kings to a return home after this one. That's especially true when you consider Houston already defeated Sacramento by 20 points in their lone previous meeting this season. The Rockets may own the superior SU record but the Kings have been a much better bet this season, going 31-22 ATS. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-04-19 | Nuggets v. Pistons +4 | 103-129 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Denver at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Bettors will almost certainly be off the Pistons on Monday night after they absolutely imploded in the fourth quarter against the Clippers on Saturday afternoon at home. Here, they catch a favorable matchup, however, as they remain at home to wrap up a four-game homestand against the Nuggets. Denver is coming off a hard-fought one-point win at Minnesota on Saturday night. Now the Nuggets will be playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, with those five games coming in five different cities. Take Detroit (10*). |
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02-02-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -7 | 125-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The fact that this is a back-to-back spot for the Rockets has obviously been factored into this line. I actually feel the number is warranted, however, with Houston in a brutal spot here playing its second of back-to-backs in elevation. We won with the Jazz last night as they pulled away for a cover against the Hawks. I expect more of the same from Utah here. The fact of the matter is, the Rockets aren't a very good team right now. They have just four wins in their last eight games, with only one of those coming on the road, that against the lowly Knicks by just four points. Houston has fallen to 23-27-1 ATS on the season and owns just 10 straight-up victories in 24 road games. Utah is rolling along with 12 wins in its last 15 games. The Jazz have been extremely consistent at the offensive end of the floor over that stretch and should certainly have their way with the defense-optional Rockets. Note that Utah took the last meeting on this floor by 27 points back in early December. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-01-19 | Hawks v. Jazz -11.5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Atlanta at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We cashed a ticket fading the Hawks in their most recent game - a blowout loss in Sacramento on Wednesday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Atlanta remains on the road and plays at altitude in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Hawks have to be a little road weary as they play their fifth game of this trip. They haven't been home in over a week while the Jazz are coming off a brief two-game trip that saw them win in Minnesota and lose in Portland. The Jazz are 15-9 at home this season and should have their way with a Hawks squad that gives up over 118 points per game on the road. The Hawks have taken two straight meetings in this series but don't count on a repeat performance here. Take Utah (10*). |
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01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2 | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Dallas at 7 pm et on Thursday. We won (some pushed) with the Mavs in this same matchup last Friday night in Dallas but I won’t hesitate to switch gears this time around as the scene shifts to Auburn Hills on Thursday night. The Mavs did notch a very rare road victory last night but will be hard-pressed to follow it up with another one here against the revenge-minded Pistons. There’s no shame in the Pistons most recent loss, that coming against one of the league’s best teams in the Milwaukee Bucks. Solid value with the Pistons at home as a short favorite here. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-30-19 | Hawks v. Kings -5.5 | 113-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Atlanta at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is an excellent spot to back the Kings as they return home to host a Hawks squad that is coming off an outright upset win over the Clippers in Los Angeles two nights ago. The Hawks are still not a good team and Sacramento has done a tremendous job of taking care of business against losing opposition this season, particularly at the betting window, where it has gone 16-5 ATS. The Kings aren’t going to land on most bettors’ radar on this night and I believe we’re being asked to lay a very reasonable number on their home floor. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-29-19 | 76ers -6.5 v. Lakers | 121-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday. Tough spot for the undermanned Lakers here as they try to follow up a win over the lowly Suns but take a considerable step up in class against the 76ers. This is obviously a big building spot for the Sixers as they will continue on to face the Warriors in Oakland on Thursday night. After dropping their last game in Denver, they can ill afford another setback here as things could really start to snowball. I don’t often lay this many points on the road, but I believe the spot warrants a play with Philadelphia welcoming back Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler on Tuesday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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01-25-19 | Pistons v. Mavs -4.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:35 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Mavericks in this spot as they host the Pistons. Dallas has shown a strong home-road dichotomy this season, going 17-6 here at home compared to 4-20 on the road. I like the fact that the Mavs will have played six of their last nine games here at home while Detroit will be playing its seventh of its last 10 games on the road. The Pistons are coming off a win in New Orleans on Wednesday night, but keep in mind, that's a Pelicans squad that is currently playing without Anthony Davis. Detroit opened its current road trip with a blowout loss against the Wizards. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic -3.5 | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. These two teams may have similar straight-up records but I don't think there's any question the Magic carry more optimism and upside. Also consider that the Wizards are in a letdown spot here, even off a loss last night against the Warriors. That was a nationally-televised game and one that the Wiz were competitive in. Here, I don't believe Washington will be competitive, where it has gone a miserable 5-18 SU on the road this season. Also note that the Magic have taken the last two meetings on this floor by exactly nine points. Washington is being outscored by nearly 10 points per game on the road this season. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-24-19 | Pelicans +12 v. Thunder | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Thunder have won three straight games both SU and ATS but I believe they're laying too many points in this spot. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is outscoring the opposition by less than seven points per contest here at home this season. They haven't defeated the Pelicans by double-digits since way back in December of 2016. Mind you, the Pelicans are without Anthony Davis right now and have dropped four of their last six games overall. Over that stretch they've lost just one game by double-digits, however. The Thunder have not fared particularly well in this pointspread range at home in recent years. I'm confident we'll see the undermanned Pelicans stay inside the inflated number tonight. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Warriors | 140-147 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors are fresh off a record-setting offensive performance in a rout in Denver last night but now find themselves in a tough spot returning home on no rest to host a surging Pelicans squad. Keep in mind, Golden State still isn't a good bet on the season having gone 19-25 ATS. The Pelicans haven't been much better but have been sharp lately, going 4-1 ATS over their last five games. They're coming off a key road win over the Clippers in Los Angeles. They haven't been able to stack many road victories on the campaign, but are actually getting outscored by barely over a single point away from home. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Utah at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the reeling Clippers, who check in having dropped three games in a row both SU and ATS. The Jazz are rolling, fresh off four consecutive wins but have actually dropped the cash in their last two games, and those came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons. Motivation will be high for the Clippers as they have also dropped three straight meetings against the Jazz. Their last win in this series did come right here in Los Angeles where they've gone 14-8 SU this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Spurs v. Mavs +1 | 105-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs were all the talk last week, capping off an incredible run with a thrilling double-overtime win over the Thunder on national TV. Since then, they've dropped back-to-back games at Oklahoma City and at home against Charlotte. I'm not convinced they'll regain their footing here on Wednesday night as they hit the road to face the upstart Mavs in Dallas. The Mavs are also coming off a loss but it was a close one (by five points) against the Warriors so I'm confident in their ability to bounce back here, noting that they've gone 16-5 straight-up at home this season. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | 142-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. Like the value being offered with the Nuggets as a small home underdog against the Warriors on Tuesday night. Denver actually has the better straight-up record and the vastly superior ATS record in this matchup. Not only that, but the Nuggets have taken five of the last nine meetings in this series. The Warriors are getting plenty of support, however, as they come in on a four-game winning streak. Still they've only managed to go 2-2 ATS over that stretch, dropping the cash in both road games. Denver has been a little uneven lately, and comes off back-to-back ATS losses, but remains a profitable 4-3 ATS over its last seven contests. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-09-19 | Pacers +6.5 v. Celtics | 108-135 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. With a blowout loss in Toronto suffered on Sunday night still fresh in their minds, I don't expect the Pacers to suffer any sort of letdown following last night's bounce-back win in Cleveland. Indiana has had some success here at TD Garden, coming away with straight-up victories in its last two stops. Also note that the Pacers took the lone previous meeting in this series this season by a single point in Indiana back in November. The Pacers check in having won seven of their last eight games overall. The Celtics are suddenly rolling, having won three straight games on their current homestand. Keep in mind, those wins came against the T'Wolves, Mavs and Nets. Note that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 28-0 ATS in the Celtics last 28 games. If you're playing the Pacers, you might want to throw a little bit at the moneyline as well. Take Indiana (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Spurs v. Pistons +3.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Pistons as they catch the Spurs in a big-time letdown spot coming off a perfect homestand. San Antonio was certainly up for a three-game homestand featuring showdowns with the Celtics, Raptors (and Kawhi Leonard) and the Grizzlies. Now the Spurs will need to get back up for a trip out east to face the lowly Pistons. That's a tall task in my opinion. Detroit has struggled lately but still owns a winning record at home and will be high on motivation following a narrow five-point loss on this floor against Utah. The last time these two teams met at the Palace of Auburn Hills, the Pistons rolled to a 93-79 win last December. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-02-19 | Hawks +5 v. Wizards | 98-114 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks were actually victorious in their last trip to the nation's capital last April, as double-digit underdogs no less. They've also managed to split a pair of meetings in Atlanta this season. While they may own an inferior overall record, they've actually performed better than the Wizards against the spread. That's not to mention the fact that they've gone 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests. There's little reason to have much faith in the Wizards right now as they've won just three times in their last 12 games. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-25-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -8.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not sure this is going to be the barn-burner that the TV execs are hoping for on Christmas Night. The Lakers have certainly held their own this season, exceeding most expectations to this point. Meanwhile, the Warriors haven't been nearly as dominant as we've been accustomed to seeing and have quite simply been an awful bet so far this season. With that being said, I believe we're being asked to lay a relatively short number with the defending champions here. This is without question a game that the Warriors have had circled as they look to make a statement against King James and the Lakers. Los Angeles has been a different team away from Staples Center and I look for it to struggle again in this spot. Take Golden State (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Suns v. Wizards -5.5 | 146-149 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Phoenix at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns are on a bit of a roll right now, having won four games in a row, with three of those coming in underdog fashion. I'll go the other way on Saturday, however, as they stay on the east coast to face what should be a highly-motivated Wizards squad. Washington has lost six of its last seven games, but it's worth noting that five of those losses came on the road. They're 8-6 at home this season while the Suns check in a miserable 3-13 on the road. Note that Phoenix has won just once here in Washington since 2014. Take Washington (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -1 | 120-107 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Bucks have won three games in a row while the Celtics have dropped back-to-back contests, including a stunning home defeat at the hands of the lowly Suns last time out. I expect to see Boston bounce back in this Eastern Conference showdown, however. Note that the Celtics are still 9-4 at home this season. The Bucks are 7-6 on the road compared to a dominant 14-3 at home. This has been a home-dominated series, with the Celtics having gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Celtics are a little banged-up right now but I'm confident they'll rise to the occasion against one of the NBA's best teams on Friday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Pacers -2 v. Nets | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers are coming off back-to-back losses but both of those games could have gone either way, including a narrow defeat in Toronto on Wednesday night. I expect to see Indiana bounce back in Brooklyn on Friday night, where it hasn't lost a game in over two years. The Pacers are a quality road team, checking in at 9-7 away from home this season. Meanwhile, the Nets are coming off seven straight victories but keep in mind, they've been favored in three of their last four games and a short underdog in the other contest, at home against the Lakers. Brooklyn is still just 7-10 at home this season. Take Indiana (10*). |
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12-19-18 | Spurs v. Magic +1 | 129-90 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Magic as they host the surging Spurs on Wednesday night in Orlando. While San Antonio has been playing better lately, the fact is, the Magic are still the superior ATS squad in this matchup. Orlando has also turned things around again, heading into this one off back-to-back home victories. Note that the Magic have already defeated the Spurs once this season, coming away with a seven-point road win back in early November. Orlando continues to be undervalued in the betting marketplace and we'll take advantage once again here. Take Orlando (10*). |
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12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Kings on Friday night as they host the Warriors in Sacramento. Golden State may own the better straight-up record in this matchup but the Kings have been the considerably stronger bet this season, going 17-10 ATS compared to the Warriors 13-16 ATS mark. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season went the Warriors, but by only a single point, in Oakland back on November 24th. Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The Kings are a winning team at home this season and I don't believe they'll back down from this challenge on Friday night. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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12-14-18 | Knicks v. Hornets -11 | 126-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Hornets as they aim for their fourth straight win on Friday night. The Knicks are reeling and this doesn't figure to be a favorable bounce-back spot as they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 48% from the field on the road this season. Meanwhile, Charlotte is knocking down 47.6% of its shots at home. Despite getting outshot from beyond the arc and outrebounded, the Hornets still took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 12 points in New York. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Portland has already gone into Houston and won this season and even last April we saw the Blazers battle the Rockets in an eventual two-point loss on this floor. Now the Blazers have plenty of motivation as they've lost four straight games on the road but have to feel confident after delivering back-to-back wins (and covers) on their home floor. The Rockets were in a nice revenge spot in Dallas on Saturday but still came up short, suffering their third straight loss. Their offense is by no means functioning at a high level right now and I don't see a turnaround coming here. Note that Houston has been one of the league's worst bets this season, going 9-16 ATS. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -2.5 | 111-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I liked what I saw from the Grizzlies last night as they were in a tough spot in New Orleans but still managed to rally for a big road victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers faced a Spurs squad looking for quick revenge in San Antonio and absolutely buckled in the fourth quarter in a double-digit loss. I like the Grizzlies to keep it rolling on Saturday night as they return home, where they've gone 8-3 this season. The Lakers have five road wins to their credit this season but those have come against the Suns, Blazers, Kings, Heat and Cavs - all teams that are inferior to the Grizzlies. Memphis went through a bit of a lull in late-November but outside of that it has been consistently good this season, going 15-9 ATS overall. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers 10-14-1 ATS mark. Take Memphis (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | 112-104 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. It took a miserable shooting performance from the Raptors for the Nets to prevail in overtime last night, snapping an eight-game losing streak in the process. Now the Nets make the quick trip to Manhattan to face the Knicks at MSG, where they haven't managed a victory since March of 2017. New York is coming off back-to-back losses, first falling on a last-second three at home against the Wizards and then getting blown out in Boston. I do like the bounce-back spot here at home, where they've defeated the Nets by 21, 16 and 19 points in their last three meetings. Brooklyn owns the slightly better overall record but the Knicks have actually been better ATS, going 13-12-1 compared to the Nets 12-15 mark. Take New York (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the short number with the Rockets as they try to salvage one victory on their current three-game road trip. It hasn't been a good trip for Houston so far as it has been held to 91 points in back-to-back losses in Minnesota and Utah. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here, however, as they face an opponent they've been beating up on for years. Yes, Dallas did take the first meeting between these two teams this season but it needed to shoot the lights out to do so, hitting 54% overall and 50% from beyond the arc. Note that the Mavs are expected to be without Dennis Smith Jr. on Saturday. He has been a key contributor this season, averaging over 13 points and four assists per game. Dallas has been terrific at home this season, going 10-2, but I do believe some regression is in order. Note that the Mavs haven't defeated the Rockets at home since April of 2016. Take Houston (10*). |
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12-07-18 | Raptors -9 v. Nets | 105-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I think the loss earlier in the week at home against Denver keeps the Raptors focus where it needs to be on Friday as they head out on the road for a sandwich game against the Nets. After this one, the Raps will head back home for a big showdown with the Bucks on Sunday. Toronto has played exceptionally well on the road this season, going 10-2 straight-up, winning by an average margin of over eight points per contest. The Nets limp into this one on the heels of eight straight losses. On their current homestand they've come up just short against the Cavs and Thunder. They played a near perfect game against Oklahoma City for three quarters on Wednesday but simply couldn't close the deal. Note that they hit nearly 42% of their three-point attempts in that game. I don't expect them to approach that level of efficiency against a Raptors squad that has held the opposition to 31.2% shooting from beyond the arc on the road this season. Take Toronto (10*). |
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12-05-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 129-105 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors own the far superior overall record this season, having gone 16-9 straight-up compared to the Cavs ugly 5-18 mark. With that being said, Cleveland has been the better bet, going 12-11 ATS in contrast to the Warriors 11-14 ATS record. Golden State got off to a tremendous start on Monday night in Atlanta and ultimately cruised to a 17-point victory. It is worth noting, however, that the Warriors were actually even with the Hawks over the final three quarters of that game. The Cavs snapped a four-game losing streak with a 99-97 win in Brooklyn last time out and are now 5-3 ATS over their last eight contests. They've gotten a nice boost from rookie Collin Sexton, not to mention the addition of Alec Burks by trade, as he has scored in double figures in three straight games since joining the Cavs. This is a clear sandwich spot for the Warriors as they'll head to Milwaukee for a date with the Bucks on Friday. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-04-18 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Portland at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers may have the slightly better overall record but the Mavs have been far superior ATS, going 14-7 compared to Portland's 11-12 mark. That's not to mention the fact that Dallas has posted a terrific 9-2 SU record at home while the Blazers check in 5-6 on the road. And of course current form sees the Mavs playing far better than the Blazers right now, winners of eight of their last 10 games overall while Portland has dropped five of its last six contests. Bettors aren't as quick to dismiss the Mavs as they were earlier in the season, which is why we're seeing them favored in this particular matchup. With that being said, I like the way the spot sets up for Dallas as it stays home off a day of rest while the Blazers travel after playing in San Antonio on Sunday. Take Dallas (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Nuggets v. Raptors -6 | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Denver at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Raptors on Monday night as they host the red hot Nuggets. Denver comes in riding a five-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. In fact, the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 15-0 ATS over the Nuggets last 15 contests. I just don't like the spot for the Nuggets here as they head across the continent following a 113-112 victory in Portland on Friday night. The Raptors make the short trip back from Cleveland, where they won by 11 points on Saturday night. Toronto hasn't suffered a loss since falling in overtime in Boston back on November 16th (we won with the Celtics in that game). The Raps have gone just 4-4 ATS over their last eight games but only once over that stretch were they favored by less than seven points, as is the case here. They won by eight points as a 5.5-point road favorite in Memphis last week. Take Toronto (10*). |
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11-30-18 | Pelicans v. Heat +3 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The public is quick to back the Pelicans on the road on Friday night, and why not? After all, the Heat are reeling, losers of eight of their last 10 games overall. With that being said, I like the spot for Miami, noting that New Orleans has gone a miserable 2-9 straight-up on the road this season and has just one win over its last five games, that coming against the dysfunctional Wizards. New Orleans has taken back-to-back meetings in this series, but Miami is actually 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups between these two teams. This is a big spot for the Heat coming off an embarrassing loss against the Hawks to open this homestand. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-27-18 | Knicks v. Pistons -7 | Top | 108-115 | Push | 0 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks are riding a season-high three-game winning streak with all three of those wins coming in outright underdog fashion. Keep in mind, they were at least eight-point underdogs in all three of those contests. We're dealing with a shorter number here at the time of posting, and I believe we're getting value with the Pistons, who are also playing some terrific basketball right now. Detroit has won six of its last eight games overall, going 7-1 ATS over that stretch. The Pistons will benefit from staying home for a third straight game here, coming off a double-digit win over the Suns on this floor two nights ago. While Detroit checks in 6-3 at home this season, New York has won just four times in 12 road games. Note that the Knicks have already lost games by 11, 23, 13, 16, 25 and 14 points on the road this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-21-18 | Kings +9.5 v. Jazz | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Utah at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Kings on Wednesday night as they aim to begin their short two-game road trip on a winning note in Utah. Sacramento not only has the better overall record in this matchup, it also owns the superior ATS mark. The Kings are 10-7 ATS while Utah has gone just 8-9 ATS this season. The Kings just endured their first winless road trip last week, dropping games in Memphis and Houston. They did respond with a win over the Thunder back at home and I believe their motivation level will remain high for this one before heading to Oakland to face the Warriors. The Jazz will be back home for the first time following a five-game road trip. They've dropped three of their last four games both SU and ATS. Utah will simply be looking for a win here, not necessarily to win by margin. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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11-21-18 | Blazers +6 v. Bucks | 100-143 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I believe too much weight is being placed on the fact that the Blazers are playing on back-to-back nights, leaving the Bucks overvalued in this spot on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, Portland is coming off back-to-back road wins, improving to 5-3 SU away from home this season. It has already defeated Milwaukee once this season, by a 118-103 score at home on November 6th. While the Bucks have taken four of the last five meetings in this series, only two of those victories came by more than three points and one of those came nearly two years ago. Having gone just 2-2 in their first four games on this road trip, the Blazers will be eager to secure another win here before wrapping up the trip against the Warriors in Oakland. Take Portland (10*). |
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11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets have had success here in South Beach in recent years but I like the way this spot sets up for the Heat as they aim to bounce back from an ugly home loss to Lebron James and the Lakers. Miami is now a miserable 3-6 SU at home this season but this is a fine opportunity to get a little back against a struggling Nets squad. Brooklyn checks in following another loss, its fourth in its last five games. The Nets lone victory over that stretch came against the lowly Wizards. This is a key spot for the Heat as they'll get a couple of days off for Thanksgiving before hitting the road for games in Chicago and Toronto. It's not a must-win by any means but I certainly expect their motivation level to be high. In previous years we've seen them overlook the Nets here at home, but I don't believe that will be the case on Tuesday. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic +7.5 | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Raptors snapped their three-game losing streak with a blowout win in Chicago on Saturday night but I believe they're overvalued as they head into Orlando to face the Magic on Tuesday. Note that while Toronto has the better overall record this season, the Raps and Magic have actually posted identical 9-8 ATS marks. This has been a competitive series since the start of 2017 with the Raptors taking four of six meetings (including four in a row heading into this one) but the Magic have gone 3-2-1 ATS. Orlando will see this as a measuring stick game coming off three straight victories and five in their last six games. I'm simply expecting a competitive affair at Amway Center on Tuesday night and believe the Magic are catching a couple of points too many. Take Orlando (10*). |
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11-16-18 | Raptors v. Celtics -1.5 | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Raptors in the first meeting between these two teams this season but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Celtics this time around. Toronto is by no means playing its best basketball right now, coming off back-to-back losses at home against the Pelicans and Pistons. The Raptors are dealing with several key injuries while the Celtics check in healthy for the most part. Boston is coming off one of its most complete performances of the season, shaking off a slow start to roll past the Bulls by 29 points. The win improved the Celtics to 4-1 at home this season. Note that the home team has won eight straight meetings in this series. Take Boston (10*). |
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11-14-18 | Blazers +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're getting considerable value with the superior squad in this matchup, largely due to the presence of LeBron James, not to mention the strong current form the Lakers bring to the table, on paper at least. Los Angeles does check in having won five of its last six games but that's been thanks in large part to a charmin-soft schedule. Yes, the Lakers did beat these same Blazers over that stretch but you have to think that only adds to Portland's motivation here. The Blazers are coming off two days' rest which comes on the heels of an extended homestand. I believe Portland is in excellent position to lay the hammer down on the Lakers in this spot. Take Portland (10*). |
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10-22-18 | Hornets +9.5 v. Raptors | 106-127 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Hornets as they head to Toronto to face the undefeated Raptors. Charlotte is coming off a big road win in Miami on Saturday night but there isn't likely to be a letdown here after the Hornets were outscored by 19 points in the second half against the Heat, holding on to win by a single point. The Hornets always seem to play the Raptors tough here in Toronto and this should be a better Charlotte squad than we've seen in recent years. Toronto sat Kawhi Leonard in an early season back-to-back spot in Washington on Saturday night but still found a way to win on the strength of a big performance from Kyle Lowry. We actually won with the Raptors on Friday night as they outlasted the Celtics 113-101. However, I won't hesitate to switch gears in this spot as Toronto is laying a much loftier number in what I expect to be a competitive affair. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Celtics took care of business in their season opener against the 76ers but it wasn't a clean performance by any means. Boston was sloppy with the basketball at times and it was obvious that Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving are going to be slowly re-acclimated into the offense in the early stages of the season. Meanwhile, the Raptors also posted a victory in their opener, rolling to a double-digit win over the Cavaliers. I like the way the Raptors have stepped up in these big statement games at home in recent years - at least in the regular season. The Celtics are going to get better as the season goes on but right now, I believe the Raptors are the superior team. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -5 v. Cavs | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. We backed the Warriors in Game 3 of this series and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with them again in the potential series-clincher on Friday night in Cleveland. Many believed this series was over before it started. While I did feel the Cavs could be competitive and push the Warriors a bit, after the way they lost the series-opener it became all about how they would respond in Game 2. The short answer was, they didn’t. Cleveland looked like a defeated squad in the second game of the series and while the Cavs did put up a fight in Game 3 on Wednesday, it wasn’t enough. Now it’s just a question of whether the Warriors have the motivation to end this on Friday night. I believe they will. Golden State has been very business-like in taking care of the Cavs so far in this series. They very much look like a team that wants to wrap this up as quickly as possible and not drag things out. As much as the Warriors fans would like to see their team win another championship at home in Oakland, I’m sure the Warriors themselves will be happy to board a plane back home with the Larry O’Brien Trophy in tow. It’s worth noting that the straight-up winner has now gone an incredible 16-1 against the spread since the start of the NBA Conference Finals. I’ll stick with that trend and call for the Warriors to finish the job on Friday night in Cleveland. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-06-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 59 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Cleveland at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We were always going to see the Cavs’ resilience level in Game 2 of this series on Sunday night. After the way the series opener played out, the Cavs were either going to show up with their best effort of the postseason or they were going to look down-trodden and very much like a team that is resigned to the fact that they cannot, and will not be able to win this series. We certainly saw the latter on Sunday night. Save for a couple of brief bursts early on, the Cavs appeared to be a beaten squad, both emotionally and physically. While Lebron James has appeared visibly frustrated for much of these playoffs, it certainly looked like all of the joy was zapped from his being after Game 1’s overtime loss. So now the series shifts to Cleveland and while the Cavs faithful would like to remain hopeful and ultimately help lift Lebron and company back into this series, I just don’t see it happening. The Cavs are being given respect still from the betting marketplace - otherwise we would be looking at a line approaching double-digits in favor of the Warriors, even on the road. I’m just not sure that respect is due at this point. The Warriors have looked disjointed at times in these playoffs – disinterested even. That comes with the territory as they aim for their third NBA title in the last four years. However, after toying with the Cavs in Game 2, I believe they can sense another championship in their grasp and I don’t think they’ll have any interest in messing around with the Cavs any longer than they absolutely have to. It’s time to move on from this “rivalry”. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-03-18 | Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cavs in Game 1 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Sunday night. The Cavs didn't force overtime by fluke on Thursday night. In fact, they just as easily could have won that game before overtime were it not for J.R. Smith losing sight of the score. There's no reason for the Cavs to hang their heads after that loss. If anything it should give them encouragement heading into this contest. The Warriors have now taken all three meetings in this series this season, going 2-1 ATS in the process. However, none of those victories came by more than 10 points. The Cavs know that they need a split here in Oakland if they want to have any hope of making a series of it. While I'm not sure if they'll be able to get the outright win, I will gladly grab the generous helping of points. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs +12.5 v. Warriors | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The vast majority of folks seem to think that this series is a foregone conclusion and that the Warriors are going to win in a walk. That was certainly the case last year as the Cavs managed to take only one game from the Warriors. I expect a different story to unfold this year, however, and actually see Cleveland giving Golden State a run. This may be one of the weakest teams Lebron James has ever carried this far in the playoffs, but I feel that only motivates King James more. He took his game to another level in the final two games against the Celtics and I look for some carry-over in the opener of The Finals on Thursday night. The Warriors have posted consecutive ATS wins only twice in these playoffs, reeling off three straight ATS victories just once (that was the first three games of the playoffs against San Antonio). Prior to that, the last time the Warriors won three in a row ATS was way back in February (8th to 12th). Neither of these teams have been good bets this season - when in doubt, grab the points with the underdog. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Rockets | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Warriors in Game 6 of this series on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them in Game 7 on Monday night. As I've mentioned this round, the SU winner has done a tremendous job of also covering the spread here in the Conference Finals, including a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in this series (perfect 13-0 ATS overall this round). That's a trend I see continuing here. The Rockets seemed to peak in Game 5 of this series, at least from an emotional standpoint. They didn't have it on Saturday night in Oakland, at least from the second quarter on, and now I'm just not sure they truly believe they can beat the three-time defending Western Conference champions in a winner-take-all affair. Golden State couldn't have played any worse than it did the last time it played on this floor in Game 5. We saw the Warriors finally wake up after a dreadful first quarter in Game 6 and I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. It seems as though the Celtics have won over the betting public as folks are lining up to back the C's at home in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday night. While we've won with the Celtics at home twice in this series I won't hesitate to switch sides here in Game 7 as I feel the value has swung in the Cavs favor after Lebron James' incredible performance in Game 6 on Friday. Even if the Cavs are without Kevin Love for this one, I still expect them to put forth a much better showing than we've seen in their first three games here in Boston. There's no question the Celtics are an emerging team in the East, they've more than proved that during this playoff run. I'm just not sure their time has come just yet. It's not often we see the home team run the table in the NBA Conference Finals, and I don't see it happening here either. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors couldn't have played much worse in Game 5 of this series on Thursday night, as the Rockets rode a wave of emotion to a narrow three-point win. The fact that Golden State was in that game right until the end was telling in my opinion. I expect to see a much sharper performance from the Warriors on Saturday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price for sure, I do believe it's warranted, especially considering the Rockets will be without Chris Paul after he re-aggravated a hamstring injury in Game 5. Despite being up 3-2 in this series you have to think Houston is feeling a sense of doubt as it heads to Oakland - not a good feeling when you're looking to close out the defending champs. It's worth noting that the after the Cavs win and cover last night, the SU winner has now gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in this round. I certainly don't expect the Warriors to go down without a fight and feel confident they'll force a Game 7 in Houston. Look for that SU/ATS combo trend to continue here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Friday. There's been a pretty strong trend when it comes to Lebron James-led teams in the playoffs over the years, that being the SU winner more often than not covers the spread as well, no matter the pointspread range. We saw that trend break early in these playoffs but lately it has come back strong, with the SU winner going 8-1 ATS in the Cavs last nine games overall. I don't expect the Cavs to lose this series on their home floor on Friday night. We won with the Celtics on Wednesday in a game that was never really close. But the Celtics have yet to sniff out a victory here in Cleveland and don't expect anything to change on Friday night. Look for Lebron James to turn in his best performance of the series as the Cavs force a seventh and deciding game. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | 94-98 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I don't think there's any panic at all in the Warriors as they head back to Houston with this series all knotted at two games apiece. Golden State was completely outplayed in two of four quarters in Game 4, ultimately falling by three points. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant combined to shoot 19-of-50 in the loss. Needless to say, I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from that duo, especially if Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala can't go on Thursday night. The Rockets can't play much better than they did on Tuesday, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. I fully expect Warriors head coach Steve Kerr to make the necessary gameplan adjustments while the Warriors stars execute. Golden State knows it can win on this floor, having come away victorious in the series opener here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. This has been the classic homer series so far and I don't see that trend reversing on Wednesday night in Boston. Everyone is quick to write off the Celtics after back-to-back losses in Cleveland, just as they were quick to write off the Cavs following the first two games in Boston. There are those suddenly questioning Celtics head coach Brad Stevens' decisions and his ability to make the necessary adjustments against Lebron James and company. I'm not buying into any of it. The Celtics have been a completely different team on their home floor in these playoffs, and really all season long. Boston is an impressive 36-14 SU at home this season while the Cavs are just a .500 team on the road. I like the fact that the Celtics didn't fold the tent after a miserable first quarter on Monday in Cleveland, outscoring the Cavs in each of the next three quarters in an eventual nine-point loss. I don't believe they'll be intimidated or crumble under the pressure in Game 5. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +8.5 v. Warriors | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Rockets in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night in Oakland. Houston put forth a miserable effort in Game 3, unable to build on what was certainly a strong performance in a blowout win in Game 2. Now it's up to the Rockets to come up with some answers and I do expect them to show up. Whether that leads to an outright win remains to be seen, but I do think the Rockets are going to stay inside the lofty pointspread here, noting that the Warriors remain a losing bet on the season at 41-53-1 ATS. Stay aware of the status of Andre Iguodala for the Warriors as he may be forced to miss Tuesday's game due to injury, which would obviously be a key absence. I'll make this play on the Rockets assuming he's good to go, however. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | 86-116 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. While the Cavs are certainly capable of getting back in this series and holding serve on their home court, I don't expect to see the Celtics back down, even with a 2-0 lead in their back pocket. The Cavs, even when at their best, have had a tendency to let teams hang around, or even creep back in late in the game - particularly at home - and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday night in Cleveland. Both teams had an extremely tough time making shots in the fourth quarter in Game 2 on Tuesday. Boston gave Cleveland every opportunity to get back in the game but the Cavs essentially stood around watching Lebron try to do it all (when they weren't doing that they were hoisting up ill-advised threes). Still, Cleveland couldn't take advantage. The Cavs are being given a lot of respect by the oddsmakers here, and perhaps rightfully so given their pedigree. I'm just not sure they'll have an easy time winning by margin. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm going to add the Rockets to my ticket on Wednesday night. It's amazing how perspectives change after just one game in a series. Leading up to this one, most expected a long, hard-fought series between arguably the two best teams in the NBA. After the Warriors prevailed in Game 1, a lot of folks are calling for a sweep. I don't expect it to be that easy for Golden State. Houston didn't bring its 'A' game on Monday night. There's no question about that. Of course, neither did the Warriors. With that being said, I do expect the Rockets to lay it all on the line in Game 2 on Wednesday, with a long layoff coming before the series resumes in Oakland on Sunday night. I don't believe the Rockets confidence was shaken by that double-digit loss in Game 1. They need to use home court to their advantage to make this a series. Look for them to do just that on Wednesday. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 119-106 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Monday. Home court means something in the NBA Playoffs, especially in the latter stages - that's an understatement. The Rockets have certainly been dominant here at home this season, going 39-8 SU. We saw them take their game to another level against the Jazz last round. Save for a complete letdown in Game 2, they were the vastly superior team, toying with the Jazz at times. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge and while I'm not about to predict the Rockets to win the series, I do believe they'll play with a real sense of urgency on Monday night, perhaps a little moreso than the Warriors who have been here before. The Rockets took two of three meetings in this series during the regular season, most recently prevailing by a 116-108 score here at home back in January. In that game, the guy I believe will be the x-factor in Monday's contest, Eric Gordon of the Rockets connected on just 2-of-14 shots, and went 0-for-9 from beyond the arc in a six-point performance. I look for much better things out of the super sixth man on Monday night. We've heard so much about the 'Hamptons Five' leading up to this series. For at least one game, I look for the duo of Harden and Paul to one-up that unit. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Cleveland at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cavs haven't been a great road team by any means this season, going 24-22 SU. They did sweep both games in Toronto last round, but I expect them to face a lot more resistance against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has been playing with house money for much of the season, really since losing Gordon Hayward and then Kyrie Irving. This is very much a team that has played with a 'nothing to lose' mentality in the playoffs, and it has certainly served them well. Note that Boston is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home in the postseason. The C's will certainly be up for this matchup. They held their own against the Cavaliers during the regular season, going 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS. With that being said, a 121-99 home loss to the Cavs suffered back in February won't be far from their minds. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | 112-114 | Win | 102 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the 76ers delivering a convincing win in Game 4 of this series in Philadelphia, most bettors are lining up to back the Celtics here as the series shifts back to Boston. While I'm not a big fan of being on the same side as the betting majority, it doesn't mean they're always wrong. In this case, I do believe they have it right. The Celtics have been terrific at home this season, going 33-14 SU. We saw just how much they feed off the home crowd back in Game 2 of this series after they fell behind big early in the game only to rally and win. Boston certainly doesn't want to give Philadelphia any more life than it already has. I'm confident we'll see Celtics head coach Brad Stevens make the necessary adjustments. We certainly didn't see Boston put forth its best effort in its first shot at eliminating the Sixers but the Celts make up for it here. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. 76ers | 92-103 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Monday. Maybe the Celtics come out flat and get their doors blown off on Monday night but I see this one playing out differently. Boston has a chance to put away the 76ers and get some much-needed rest before an anticipated showdown with the Cavs and I look for it to take full advantage. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens has coached circles around 76ers boss Brett Brown. The 76ers seem to be having a tough time figuring things out with Joel Embiid back in the lineup and have looked nothing like the poised squad that disposed of the Heat in round one of the playoffs. Now with their backs against the wall I have no doubt that the 76ers will show up, but I simply believe they're laying too many points in this matchup. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Rockets -5 v. Jazz | 100-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Rockets in Game 3 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Houston in Game 4 on Sunday night in Salt Lake City. I can't help but think that the Jazz's victory in Game 2 in Houston had more to do with the Rockets not bringing the proper level of compete than it did anything Utah was able to do gameplan-wise. The Rockets came out with a lot more intensity in Game 3 and blew the doors off the Jazz with only a late run making things look a little more respectable than it actually was. The common line of thinking is that the Jazz will make the necessary adjustments and get back in this series on Sunday, but I'm not so sure. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Warriors -6 v. Pelicans | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over New Orleans at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Pelicans shot the lights out on their way to a Game 3 victory on Friday night. I look for the Warriors to answer back with a better defensive performance on Sunday, while also shooting better themselves after knocking down less than 40% of their shots last time out. We're being asked to lay a considerable price here, but we're backing the superior squad in a strong motivational spot. Expect a quality road game from the defending champs on their way to a win and cover. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +4.5 v. Cavs | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors came unglued over the course of Game 2 of this series on Thursday, after falling in an opener that truly could have gone either way two nights earlier. While I don’t believe the Raps can actually win this series, I do think we’ll see them make things at least a little bit interesting with their most complete effort of the series on Saturday night. Yes, Lebron clearly has Toronto’s number but there’s no question that’s been factored into this line. The betting public will be quick to jump all over the Cavs as they return home with a 2-0 stranglehold on this series but I believe we’re getting solid value with the Raps in an underdog role, carrying a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality on Saturday night. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-04-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Rockets got off to a miserable start in Game 2 on Wednesday night, showing very little life and very much looking like a team that thought it would be able to sleepwalk its way to a series sweep. The Jazz pushed back and despite relaxing a bit and letting the Rockets back in the game in the third quarter, ultimately pulled away for a decisive victory to even the series at one game apiece. Now the series shifts to Salt Lake City and I expect the Rockets to come out with a lot more fire, and certainly put forth a more inspired effort. I can’t help but think this line would have been a little higher had Houston rolled to another victory in Game 2. Instead we’re looking at a short number to back what will undoubtedly be a highly-motivated Rockets squad that has shifted its attention back to the Jazz following the Game 2 wake-up call. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-03-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +4 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics continue to get no respect from the betting marketplace as they once again find themselves in the underdog role on Thursday night. I can't help but feel that's just the way they like it. The home team has gone a perfect 8-0 SU in all Celtics game in these playoffs and I see that trend continuing here. The 76ers have enjoyed a tremendous season, not just SU but ATS as well. With that being said I didn't have them advancing past the Celtics at the onset of this series. Their time will come - just not sure this is the year. Boston is brimming with confidence right now and while most expect Philadelphia to bounce back, I believe the 76ers will have a tough time winning, let alone covering the spread. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-02-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -11 | 116-108 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I believe it's highly unlikely that the Jazz are going to hold the Rockets to 110 points again on Wednesday night. I'm also not convinced that Utah can improve much offensively. Expect another lopsided result in favor of the Rockets in Game 2. Of course, Houston has had Utah's number this season, going a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. The Rockets were able to shift into cruise control in the opener of this series on Sunday. While they can expect to get more of a challenge from the Jazz, I believe it's only a matter of time before Houston once again pulls away. The Jazz have exceeded most expectations reaching the second round of the playoffs. But that's as far as they go. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Just feels like the wrong team is favored in this matchup, largely due to the circumstances by which the two teams got this point. The 76ers rolled past the Heat, facing little resistance along the way. Meanwhile, the Celtics were pushed to the limit by the Bucks, needing a big second half effort in Game 7 at home on Saturday night to advance. This has the makings of another long series and I certainly expect to see the 76ers hang tough in games played here in Beantown. With that being said, I don't believe the Celtics are getting any respect at all with this pointspread in the opener. Boston has faced a ton of adversity this season and so it should be comfortable entering this series as the underdog. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5.5 | 101-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Indiana at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that the Pacers have looked like the better team for much of this series, I have no problem with laying the points with the Cavs on Sunday afternoon. It comes as a surprise to most that we're seeing a seventh and deciding game in this series. Most thought the Cavs would roll past the Pacers but that has been far from the case. Keep in mind, Cleveland checked in as seven and eight-point favorites in the first two games in this series. Now we've seen the line drop to a more reasonable number, but in a must-win situation, I expect the Cavs will come to play. We won with the Pacers on Friday night, as that spot certainly favored the home team with their backs against the wall. Maybe the Cavs don't deserve to win this series, but I'm confident that Lebron James will have his squad ready. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number with what I still feel is the superior team. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 6 of this series on Thursday night as they ultimately pulled away for a convincing win, sending the series back to Boston for a seventh and deciding game on Saturday. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Celtics in this one, however, as it's now Brad Stevens turn to make the necessary adjustments and Boston's opportunity to defend its home floor, as it has throughout this series, and advance to the second round. Home court advantage is of course what the Celtics fought for all season, and it has certainly paid off in this series, with the home side winning all six contests. I think the fact that things have tightened up considerably does favor the Celtics here. We saw the Bucks struggle to score in Game 5 in Boston, managing only 87 points and I expect to see a similar story unfold here. Even in Game 6, it took a huge effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo with 31 points and 14 rebounds to secure a Bucks victory. In that must-win situation for Milwaukee, Boston showed plenty of fight, pulling with a bucket with just over seven minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Bucks ultimately had the greater will to win and prevailed, but here I believe we'll see that role belong to the Celtics. Expect Boston to bring its best effort of the series on Saturday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Friday. There's no reason for the Pacers to wave the white flag after dropping a tough one on Lebron James' last second heroics in Game 5. Indiana has been an excellent home team all season long, and even when the Pacers didn't bring their 'A' game back in Game 4 at home, they still only lost by four points. Look for the Pacers to make a last stand so to speak and force a seventh and deciding game in Cleveland where really anything can happen. Indiana has been right there with the heavily favored Cavs throughout this series and nothing changes on Friday night. Take Indiana (10*). |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics took back control of this series and pushed the Bucks to the brink of elimination with a 92-87 victory in Game 5 of this series but I look for Milwaukee to answer back on its home floor on Thursday night. Celtics coach Brad Stevens made all the right moves last game, including inserting rookie Semi Ojeleye into the starting lineup to help defensively against Giannis Antetokounmpo. Of course, the return of Marcus Smart also gave the Celtics a big lift in a game they needed to win. With that being said, the margin of victory was still just five points. The home team has won all five games in this series so far, and while a few of those could have gone either way, each team has also recorded a blowout win on its home floor. While I'm not certain we'll see a blowout here, I do believe we'll see the Bucks make the necessary adjustments and force a seventh and deciding game in Boston. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Utah at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz will be looking to close out the Thunder in what would be a surprising result to most. I'm not convinced the Thunder can get all the way back in this series, but I do expect them to take a stand on their home floor on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, the Jazz are just 21-22 on the road this season while Oklahoma City has a decided home court edge having gone 28-15 here at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Russell Westbrook talked a good game following Game 3 of this series but wasn't able to follow it up with his performance on the floor in Game 4. Look for him to make amends as he helps guide the Thunder to a win and cover on Wednesday. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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04-24-18 | Heat v. 76ers -10 | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat put up a good fight at home in Game 4 of this series but now that they're down 3-1, I don't see them making a big final stand in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. The Heat have actually shown a tendency to fold the tent in this series, losing a pair of games by 27 and 20 points. The 76ers have certainly been a force at home this season, going 31-11 SU while outscoring the opposition by right around nine points per contest. Meanwhile, the Heat are six games under .500 on the road and simply don't score enough to keep up with what will surely be a highly-motivated 76ers squad on Tuesday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Rockets were set back on their heels in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night as the T'Wolves ran them out of the building in a 121-105 victory. I believe the shoe will be on the other foot on Monday, however, as Houston aims to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. Note that the Rockets had won eight straight meetings in this series prior to Saturday's contest. The T'Wolves have gone 2-1 ATS in this playoff series so far to snap a four-game ATS winning streak by the Rockets. Houston didn't bring the proper levels of focus and intensity to Saturday's game, but it will here. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Indiana at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cavs may be down in this series but I'm not about to count out a Lebron James-led team, certainly not in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Cavs by no means played their best game on Friday night, but they were still right there, losing by only a basket. While the pressure should rest squarely on the Cavs shoulders heading into this one, I actually believe it might be the Pacers that come out a little tight now that they've regained the series lead. It's not a must-win situation for Cleveland but it certainly can't afford to give the Pacers any more confidence at this stage of the series. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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