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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-31-21 | Jazz +2 v. Nuggets | 117-128 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Jazz just keep rolling along, having not lost a game since way back on January 6th. Here, they go on the road to face what can only be considered an overrated Nuggets squad at this point. Denver had won five games in a row before dropping a 10-point decision in San Antonio last time out. Keep in mind, the Nuggets recent winning streak came against struggling opponents in the Suns (twice), Mavs and Heat. Utah continues to be an undervalued commodity despite its scorching hot play. Take Utah (10*). |
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01-30-21 | Blazers +2 v. Bulls | 123-122 | Win | 101 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Blazers to bounce back from Thursday's narrow three-point loss in Houston as they head to Chicago to face the Bulls on Saturday night. Chicago was put in its place in consecutive home setbacks against the Lakers and Celtics, bringing a halt to a three-game winning streak in the process. The Blazers will be looking to snap a two-game skid of their own in this spot, noting that they've yet to lose more than two games in a row this season. Take Portland (10*). |
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01-27-21 | Kings v. Magic -1.5 | 121-107 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Magic two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again here as they draw a winnable matchup against the Kings. Sacramento is coming off a win over the Knicks, but that was last Friday. Its last two games were scheduled to be played in Memphis but were postponed due to Covid protocols. The Kings haven't won a road game since posting a two-point victory in Denver back on December 23rd. Now they travel across the country after four full days off to face a Magic squad that is looking to find some consistency and post consecutive wins for the first time since January 4th and 6th. I like the upside the Magic offer after a tough stretch, noting that they could just as easily be entering this game on a four-game winning streak after a couple of heartbreaking two and three-point setbacks over the weekend. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-26-21 | Knicks +11 v. Jazz | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Utah at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem fading the red hot Jazz here as they aim to extend their eight-game winning streak, but do so with an eye on a three-game in five-night stretch against the Mavs and Nuggets up next. The Knicks betting bandwagon was loading up on the heels of three straight victories last week but has since cleared following consecutive losses to the Kings and Trailblazers. I expect New York's best effort here as it tries to avoid a losing four-game road trip before a couple of off days. Note that New York took the first meeting between these two teams this season, by double-digits no less, back on January 6th at home. While the Jazz will be looking to get their revenge here, I'm still not sure a losing squad like the Knicks will garner their complete attention. Take New York (10*). |
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01-25-21 | Hornets v. Magic +2 | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the Magic last night as they fell on a buzzer-beater in the first half of this back-to-back set. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Orlando here as it is well-positioned to rebound against a beatable Hornets squad. The Magic controlled proceedings much of the way last night before falling apart in the fourth quarter. With that being said, they still managed to tie the game up with eight seconds remaining. Their motivation level will certainly be high on Monday night as they look to get back in the win column at home. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic -1.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been scuffing along, having dropped seven of their last eight games overall but they have an excellent opportunity to get back on track against a sliding Hornets squad on Sunday evening. Note that Charlotte has lost four games in a row. Orlando is coming off a narrow overtime loss on the road against the Pacers last time out and should be able to use that performance as a springboard, noting that it had won the game prior to that, albeit by a single point against the lowly T'Wolves. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-22-21 | Knicks +4 v. Kings | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Sacramento at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Knicks continue to get no respect from the oddsmakers as they check in as an underdog in Sacramento on Friday night. Of course, the narrative will be that they're in for a letdown after last night's double-digit win over the Warriors, but I don't see it happening. New York is back to the .500 mark on the season and this is without question a winnable game against a Kings squad mired in a 5-10 start, having dropped four in a row and six of their last seven overall. Yesterday Sacramento got word that its next two games after this one, scheduled to be played in Memphis, have been postponed. That serves as another distraction for a team that certainly doesn't need any given its recent struggles. Look for the Knicks to keep rolling here. Take New York (10*). |
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01-21-21 | Pelicans +7 v. Jazz | 118-129 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Utah at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans suffered a third quarter lapse in Tuesday's meeting between these two teams, and it ultimately cost them in an eventual 16-point loss (that result was actually flattering as the Pelicans closed the gap in garbage time in the fourth quarter). I do expect a strong bounce-back performance from New Orleans here. Note that while Utah took three of four meetings between these two teams last season, they did so by a combined six-point margin. We're catching that many points in this game alone with the number potentially moving higher closer to tipoff. Despite their 5-8 record, I do think the Pelicans have the potential to be an improved team and I'm confident head coach Stan Van Gundy will have them ready following an off day in Utah yesterday. I'll call for the Pels' to at the very least take this one down to the wire against a red hot Jazz squad. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-19-21 | Thunder v. Nuggets -9.5 | 101-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Nuggets have been scuffing their heels all season, off to a disappointing 6-7 start although we did cash with them last Thursday night in their double-digit win over the Warriors - the same Warriors team that stunned the Lakers last night in Los Angeles. Here, I look for a focused effort from Denver as it looks to close out its three-game homestand on a winning note before heading out on the road for five games. Oklahoma City was expected to be a bottom-feeder in the Western Conference this season but has surprised by going 6-6 through 12 games including a 5-1 mark away from home. The Thunder really got rolling out east earlier this month, reeling off four wins in five games on the road but since then they've gone just 1-2 with both losses coming by double-digit margins. I believe their lack of depth catches up with them in this spot as they play their fifth game in eight nights against a highly-motivated Nuggets squad that has the talent to win this one going away provided it stays focused. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-18-21 | Wolves +8 v. Hawks | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Atlanta at 2:35 pm et on Monday. The Hawks have lost six of their last seven games overall and now return home off a three-game road trip that got limited to two due to a Covid-related postponement in Phoenix. The T'Wolves have just three wins in 11 games this season and now have to deal with the absence of numerous key cogs, including Karl-Anthony Towns due to a positive Covid diagnosis. I do look for them to step up in his absence on Monday, however, and we're being given a generous helping of points to work with. After blowing a double-digit fourth quarter lead and losing by 11 points against the Grizzlies last time out, look for Minnesota to bring its best effort on Monday afternoon. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings +2 | 128-123 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over New Orleans at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the home side in this matchup of two struggling Western Conference teams. New Orleans enters this game having dropped five in a row. In spite of that, it finds itself in a bit of a letdown spot off consecutive games against two of the West's best teams in the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles. The Pelicans will also be looking ahead to back-to-back tough games in Utah up next. The Kings have lost their last two games and four of their last five overall. They've been home since January 6th and will be up for finishing this homestand on a high note before playing seven of their next eight contests on the road. I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-15-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Mavs have been in catch-up mode ever since starting the season with consecutive losses. They've certainly done a nice job lately, reeling off four straight victories entering Friday's showdown with the Bucks. I expect them to give Milwaukee all it can handle in this one. Unlike the Bucks last few opponents (their current three-game winning streak has come at the expense of the Cavs, Magic and Pistons), the Mavs aren't going to beat themselves. Dallas ranks eight in the NBA in fewest turnovers per offensive play. By contrast, the Bucks actually rank 17th in that category. Also note that the Mavs are top three in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's not as if Dallas has faced a soft schedule either. The Mavs opponents have included the Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Heat, Rockets and Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Bucks have gone 1-3 SU in their four toughest matchups to date, against the Celtics, Heat (twice) and Jazz. Outside of that they really haven't been challenged. This should be a tightly-contested affair. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-14-21 | Warriors v. Nuggets -4.5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Nuggets as they return home to host the Warriors on Thursday night. The Denver bandwagon effectively cleared in last Thursday's overtime loss to the Mavs but the Nuggets quietly rebounded with consecutive wins after that, before falling to the Nets in Brooklyn earlier this week. Here, I expect to see Denver bounce back in a big way against a Warriors squad that has somewhat surprisingly righted the ship of late, winning four of their last six games to pull back over the .500 mark. I didn't like the way they faded in the second half against the Pacers last time out and believe they could be in for a rude awakening here after playing each of their first seven January games at home. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets +4.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hornets just keep rolling along, winners of four games in a row entering Wednesday's matchup with the Mavericks. They might be catching Dallas at the right time as the Mavs return to the floor following a postponed game due to Covid concerns on Monday in New Orleans. The Mavs had won three straight games heading into that postponement but could certainly be off their game here, especially with a clear look-ahead to a showdown in Milwaukee on Friday night. I simply feel Dallas is laying a couple of points too many in this spot. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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01-12-21 | Spurs -1.5 v. Thunder | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Thunder are coming off a 4-1 road trip that saw them sweep a pair of games in New York against the Knicks and Nets over the weekend. Now I expect them to suffer a letdown as they return home to host the Spurs on Tuesday night. San Antonio had its three-game winning streak snapped last time out in Minnesota. Demar Derozan's likely absence will give the rest of the Spurs an opportunity to step up and fill the void on Tuesday night and I'm calling for a strong bounce-back perfromance before they return home for consecutive games against the Rockets on Thursday and Saturday. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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01-09-21 | Hawks -4 v. Hornets | 105-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Hawks as they look to get back at the Hornets after suffering a 102-94 loss in this same matchup on Wednesday night. Atlanta fell behind by 16 points after the first quarter in that game and never really recovered. It was certainly an off shooting night for the Hawks as they knocked down just 38% of their FG attempts and shot 7-of-40 from beyond the arc. Trae Young contributed just seven points. Needless to say, I expect a strong bounce-back effort from Atlanta here as it looks to snap its three-game skid. Heading on the road might be a good thing for this team right now as they might have gotten a little high on the horse after a red hot start to the campaign. Charlotte is still just 4-5 on the season and will be playing the second of back-to-back nights after delivering a second straight outright underdog win on the road in New Orleans last night. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-06-21 | Rockets +2 v. Pacers | 107-114 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets are coming off a poor showing against the Mavs on Monday - a disappointing result after they swept a back-to-back set with the Kings. I do expect Houston to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as it catches Indiana returning home following an overtime win in New Orleans two nights ago, having alternated wins and losses over its last four games. For the Rockets, this is a key road tilt before returning home for their next three games. I expect a positive response from both James Harden and John Wall after the duo combined to shoot 9-of-27 from the field on Monday night. While controversy has swirled around Harden as he looks to get out of Houston, his play hasn't showed it as he is averaging 33 points and 10.8 assists per game this season. Take Houston (10*). |
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01-06-21 | Wizards +7 v. 76ers | 136-141 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards could easily suffer a letdown here off a big upset win in Brooklyn on Sunday but having had two days off since that contest, I'm confident we'll see them use that victory as a building block. After all, the Wiz are off to a rough 2-5 start so they can ill afford to let down their guard, especially against a 76ers squad that has posted a 6-1 record. Keep in mind, this is a rematch from opening night, when the 76ers turned in a near-flawless performance yet still only won by six points. The Wizards were without sophomore Rui Hachimura in that game which is notable as he has been a steady contributor since returning, scoring 14.3 points per game and adding nearly four rebounds per contest. Also notable has been the steady improvement of Washington C Thomas Bryant, who has scored 28, 18 and 21 points over his last three games, hauling in 14 rebounds in Sunday's win over Brooklyn. The 76ers are obviously off to a tremendous start but they've also faced a fairly light schedule. Of their seven games, four have come at home and the list of teams they've faced is as follows; Washington, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte (twice). I look for the Wizards to give the Sixers a run in this one. Take Washington (10*). |
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01-05-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +9 | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers had little trouble brushing aside the Grizzlies two nights ago, cruising to a 14-point victory. Keep in mind, Memphis shot just 41% from the field and got to the free throw line only eight times in that contest. The 14-point margin of victory for the Lakers was probably a little flattering for the Grizzlies in actual fact. Here, I look for the Grizzlies to turn in a better showing, while the Lakers turn in less than a peak performance with an eye on a three-game in four night stretch beginning on Thursday. There will obviously be games where the Lakers conserve a little energy over the course of this unique 2020-21 season, and this might just be one of them. The Grizzlies have actually held their own since losing star sophomore Ja Morant to injury. He went down early in their eventual overtime win over the Nets on December 28th. Including that game, they've gone 2-2 since losing Morant. This is a key spot for the Grizzlies as they aim to give themselves at least a chance of posting a winning homestand, with two winnable games against the Cavs and the perceiveably Durant-less Nets up next. Take Memphis (10*). |
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01-04-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -6 | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Knicks got past the Pacers in an early season revenge spot on Saturday night thanks to shooting the lights out and dominating the glass. I don't expect them to do either of those things on Monday as they head to Atlanta to face the Hawks. Atlanta should be in a foul mood after an extremely poor second half showing against the Cavs on Saturday (we won with the Cavs in that game). The Hawks jumped out to an early lead but couldn't make it stand up. Perhaps the fact they were playing on the second of back-to-back nights after closing out a tough two-game split in Brooklyn played a role. While the Hawks bandwagon mostly cleared after that loss to Cleveland, I expect them to respond with a big effort on Monday night against the upstart Knicks. One thing we know is while Atlanta is off to a solid start, it certainly isn't good enough to overlook a team like New York. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-02-21 | Cavs +7 v. Hawks | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. While we've been high on the Hawks in the early going this season, I see this as a fine spot to fade them as they return home following a two-game set in Brooklyn. We're going to see all kinds of odd scheduling quirks over the course of this unique 2020-21 season. Here, Atlanta returns home on no rest after playing the Nets twice in three nights in Brooklyn. The Hawks managed to split those two contests and now I'm not sure we're going to see a peak effort from them against the Cavs on Saturday night. Cleveland has been an Eastern Conference doormat in recent years but is off to a fine 3-2 start this season, getting far more consistent production from its starting five than we've been used to seeing. We actually won by fading the Cavs in their most recent game - a 20-point loss in Indiana on New Year's Eve. That was an excellent spot for the Pacers, however, and Cleveland could have made a game of it were it not for an off night from the free throw line (it shot 13-of-24). Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-31-20 | Cavs v. Pacers -7.5 | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Cleveland at 3:05 pm et on Thursday. These two teams check in with identical 3-1 records this season but I don't think there's any question Indiana is the superior squad. Keep in mind, the Cavs three victories have come against the Hornets, Pistons and Joel Embiid-less 76ers. While Collin Sexton and Andre Drummond have been impressive for Cleveland, I expect the depth of the Pacers to wear it out on Thursday afternoon. Of course there's a chance we see a Pacers letdown here off consecutive tough battles against the Celtics but I think there's a better chance we see a focused effort from Indiana given it dropped its most recent game against Boston by a 116-111 score. Indiana continues to get production from up and down its lineup - most recently registering six players in double-figures. The Cavs have been living off of extra possessions, ranking tops in the league in steals per game. Indiana, however, is top nine in fewest turnovers and I look for it to do a fine job of taking care of the basketball here. Take Indiana (10*). |
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12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6 | 141-145 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've already backed the Hawks in all three games this season, going 2-1 ATS in the process, with our lone miss coming as a free play in Monday's win but non-cover against the Pistons. Here, I'll go the other way and fade Atlanta as it opens a two-game set against the Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Grizzlies but that was without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the floor after they played big minutes against the Hornets the night previous. For a team like the Nets, who are certainly top-heavy and a little depth-shy, they're going to need to find reasons to motivated themselves over the course of this unique 2020-21 season. I do think the Hawks perfect 3-0 record will garner their attention and we'll see a focused effort as the Nets look to snap their two-game skid. I've sung the Hawks praises in the early going this season and have them pegged as a possible breakout team in the East, but they're not a top contender by any means. That should be evident in Tuesday's game against an elite Nets squad, albeit one that is still looking to find its footing. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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12-29-20 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Raptors certainly haven't looked like a top contender in the Eastern Conference out of the gate this season, going winless through two games. I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for the Raps as they stay on the road to face a 76ers squad that is coming off a blowout loss in Cleveland - a game in which they were without Joel Embiid after he experienced some back tightness in warmups. All indications are he will be back on Tuesday but even if he's not, I like the Sixers chances of handing the Raps a third consecutive loss. With Pascal Siakam still struggling (picking up where he left off in last summer's 'bubble' playoffs) and minimal bench production with key contributor Norm Powell having shot 2-for-16 through two games, Toronto is left looking for answers right now. I simply feel a better opportunity for it to get on track will come back in Tampa on Thursday against the Knicks. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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12-28-20 | Jazz v. Thunder +7.5 | 110-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Thunder were pegged by many to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference standings this season but they're off to a 1-0 start after defeating the Hornets in their opener on Saturday. I believe OKC is catching too many points again in this spot as it hosts its home opener against the 1-1 Jazz. It's worth noting that the Thunder posted eight blocks in their opener - that's more than the usually defensive-minded Jazz have recorded in their first two games combined (7). The Thunder also notched eight steals in their season debut - while they may lack the talent of a playoff contender, they're hungry and out to prove their many doubters wrong. That's often a recipe for success - at least early in the season. I do think OKC is catching Utah at the right time as the Jazz looked out of sync last time out and star guard Donovan Mitchell has shot just 12-of-39 from the floor through two games - clearly still shaking off the rust after a unique offseason. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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12-27-20 | Mavs +5 v. Clippers | 124-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Mavericks as they look to record their first victory of the season on Sunday afternoon. This is obviously a tough matchup against the undefeated Clippers but I expect the Mavs to be up for the challenge after pushing the Clips to six games in last summer's 'bubble' playoffs. Los Angeles shot the lights out in its most recent victory against Denver, hitting 55% overall, 50% from three-point range and 83% from the free throw line. The Mavs have their work cut out for them but should be much tougher on the Clips than they were on the Lakers when they allowed 56% shooting on Friday night. While we won with L.A. on opening night, that was in an underdog role against the rival Lakers. Off consecutive wins to open the campaign, I look for the Clips to sputter here. Take Dallas (10*). |
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12-26-20 | Raptors -1 v. Spurs | 114-119 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. The best thing for the Raptors may be to hit the road at this point after they opened their season with a disappointing 'home' loss to the Pelicans in Tampa. Toronto simply went ice cold from the field in the second half against New Orleans. I don't expect to see much carry-over from that performance here, however. Meanwhile, San Antonio lit it up in its season-opener against Memphis, scoring 130+ points in the process. Demar Derozan not surprisingly led the way in that contest. I'm not all that high on the Spurs and figure they're in for a bit of a letdown here. I'll bank on the Raps responding with a sharp performance on Saturday night. Take Toronto (10*). |
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12-23-20 | Hawks -1.5 v. Bulls | 124-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks endured another miserable season last year, ultimately ending up one of only eight teams to miss out on the 'bubble' invite this past Summer. While there will be no shortage of motivation in Atlanta, I believe the Hawks also have the pieces in place to take a significant step forward here in 2020-21. With a number of new faces in the mix there's reason to think that they could struggle in the early going as they try to find some chemistry but the preseason was encouraging as they were competitive in three of four games (in their lone blowout loss Trae Young made just four field goals in 26 minutes of action). I see this as the perfect opening night matchup for the Hawks as they travel to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that is also looking to turn things around following a dismal campaign. For the Bulls, I believe the road back to respectability might take a little longer. There's a lot to be excited about with Coby White ready to emerge as a star in the league and plenty of role players capable of stepping up around him. I'm just not convinced they have the offense to keep pace with the Hawks at this early stage of the season. Atlanta scored 112, 116, 106 and 117 in four preseason games with a real key being the steadying performances of veteran free agent acquisitions Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic off the bench - something it has really been missing in recent years. Behind big opening night performances from Trae Young and Cam Reddish, look for the Hawks to prevail. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-22-20 | Clippers +3.5 v. Lakers | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Clippers plus the points over the Lakers at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take the points with the Clippers on opening night as they look to put an awful preseason behind them against the defending champion Lakers. There will be no shortage of motivation in the Clippers locker room this season after a 2019-20 campaign that turned out to be a disappointment. I think this is the perfect matchup for them to start the season with. While the Lakers showed flashes of brilliance in the preseason, I'm not convinced they're putting too much stock in this opening night result. As they work their way back into form, we'll grab the points with the underdog Clippers in a game where I fully expect them to bring their 'A' effort. Take the Clippers (10*). |
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12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets -7 | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While expectations are obviously quite high in Brooklyn with both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving back healthy, I believe they're warranted. Meanwhile, the Warriors season essentially went by the wayside before it even started with Klay Thompson going down with a season-ending injury. While a healthy Steph Curry obviously means Golden State should be improved compared to last year, I don't like the roster they currently have assembled (note that Draymond Green is expected to miss the opener). Maybe Curry shoots the lights out and keeps this one competitive, but I think there's a better chance that the Nets run away and hide with a decisive opening-night victory. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Game 5 on Friday night had very much the look of a 'last stand' of sorts from Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Left exhausted at the end of that thrilling affair, I'm not convinced the Heat can keep pace with the Lakers for four quarters on Sunday night. Lebron James' critics have once again come out of the woodwork following that missed opportunity to close this series out in Game 5 - despite his 40-point, 13-rebound performance. I certainly expect another positive response from Lebron (and perhaps more importantly, his supporting cast) here. The Lakers have essentially controlled this series from the jump and I'm not going to knock them for slipping up in their first shot at closing out the series on Friday. Miami has shown plenty of resiliency throughout these playoffs and has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out'. However, now we're dealing with a very reasonable price to back what is sure to be a determined Lakers squad eager to bring an end to 'bubble life' and deliver the Larry O'Brien trophy back to Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Tuesday. While the nature of that Game 2 loss may have broken most teams, I don't expect the Nuggets to fold the tent. Denver has shown plenty of resiliency throughout the playoffs and should bounce back here as it has a lot of positives to build on following Game 2. While I also lean to the 'under' in this matchup, I'll stick with the side and back the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Denver (10*). |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers clearly got caught looking ahead to a date with the rival Lakers at halftime of Game 6, ultimately blowing a 16-point lead en route to an eventual double-digit loss. L.A. really couldn't have played much worse. It only serves to make bouncing back that much easier on Tuesday as I'm confident the Clips motivation level will be sky-high and I expect their play to match it. Give Denver all the credit in the world, first battling its way through a tough series against the Jazz and now giving the favored Clips all they can handle in another seven-game series. We have, however, seen L.A.'s ability to reach another gear in this series and there's simply too much on the line as a franchise to lay another egg on Tuesday night. All of that has certainly been factored into the line, but I still look for the Clips to cover the number. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really think this is a blowout in the making as the weary Nuggets take on the Clippers just one day removed from outlasting the Jazz in what was an opening round war of attrition. Los Angeles is well-rested, and likely to keep rolling after rounding into form in the latter stages of the first round. The Clips didn't exactly come roaring out of the gates here in the "bubble" but they didn't have to. Here, I look for them to get off to a blazing start to the second round as they do a far better job of containing Jokic and Murray than the Jazz did in the Nuggets last series. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 112-94 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I look for the Raptors to get an early jump on the Celtics in this series as they return from an extended layoff on Sunday afternoon. Boston looked a little disjointed at times early in its series against the 76ers but got stronger as it went on, ultimately prevailing against an undermanned Philadelphia squad. This should be a different story as it faces the challenge of a full-strength Raptors squad that is playing some of its best basketball here in the "bubble". All indications are that Kyle Lowry's ankle should be good to go for Game 1, with a few extra days off helping him get ready for the opener. Take Toronto (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers on Tuesday night as they bounce-back from a very disappointing overtime loss on Sunday afternoon. Luka Doncic simply took over that game on Sunday, turning in a performance for the ages with his running mate Kristaps Porzingis sidelined. Now I look for a big response from Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers as they look to take back control of the series and silence some of their doubters in the process. A big early lead may have been the worst thing that could have happened to the Clippers on Sunday as they let down their guard against the undermanned Mavs and ultimately paid the price with an 'L'. Look for a sharper, more focused effort from the Clips on Tuesday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 1 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 1 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 2 on Thursday afternoon. This is a mismatch as far as I'm concerned, even if it didn't look that way in the early stages of the series-opener. Once the Heat settled in they were able to essentially do whatever they wanted and ultimately stretch out the margin against the Pacers in Game 1. There's little reason to expect anything different on Thursday. The 'zig-zag theory' produced a 3-1 ATS record in yesterday's playoff contests, but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Take Miami (10*). |
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08-18-20 | Heat -4.5 v. Pacers | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 4 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Heat as they open their first round playoff series with the Pacers on Tuesday afternoon. This will actually be the third meeting in just over a week between these two teams with each side winning one of those matchups. Both games were ultimately blowouts but we can put a lot more stock in Miami's 114-92 win back on August 10th as the second matchup saw most key cogs sit. The Pacers have enjoyed a nice run here in the "bubble" but I'm much higher on the Heat and had this line pegged 1.5 points higher than we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take Miami (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers in the opener of their series with the Mavericks on Monday night. After getting off to a rocky start here at Disney dropping two of their first three contests, the Clippers turned it around winning four of their last five. That included a 15-point rout of the Mavericks on August 6th. Dallas has been marred by inconsistent play, particularly at the defensive end of the floor, here in the "bubble" and I simply don't see it getting off to a roaring start to the playoffs against a Clippers squad that will be looking to make a statement right out of the gates. All things considered, I believe we're being asked to lay a very reasonable number with the vastly superior team on Monday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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08-17-20 | 76ers +6 v. Celtics | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 6:30 pm et on Monday. The Celtics were red hot near the tail-end of regular season play in the "bubble", reeling off four straight wins before falling with most of their key cogs resting in their finale against the Wizards. Here, they draw a tough opening round matchup against a 76ers squad they struggled against during the regular season, dropping three of four meetings. Of course, Philadelphia is a different team without Ben Simmons. That being said, the Sixers have held up well in "bubble" action to this point, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. They've learned to play without their star guard and I believe they enter the playoffs with a big chip on their shoulder against the favored Celtics. Look for a tightly-contested affair in Game 1 on Monday. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Nets +10 v. Raptors | 110-134 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Toronto at 4 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Nets on Monday as they aim to take their first step in dethroning the defending NBA champion Raptors. While that will be a tall task indeed, here we're only looking for Brooklyn to give Toronto a run. The Raptors are generally slow starters in playoff series' having gone an absolutely dreadful 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 series openers. The Nets have been one of the most undervalued commodities in the "bubble". While they have a ton of absences, there's no question they've come together and played their best basketball of the season here at Disney. The Raps win Game 1 but it should be close. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Pacers -3 v. Suns | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Phoenix at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. This is an ideal spot to fade the red hot Suns as they come off a thrilling buzzer-beating win over the Clippers two days ago. Phoenix has gone a perfect 3-0 since the NBA restart to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Here it faces a less talked about but equally hot opponent in the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers have also gone a perfect 3-0 since the restart but the difference is Indiana has been a quality team all season long. The Suns will certainly draw the Pacers attention here after that huge upset victory over the NBA title contending Clippers. I believe we're being asked to lay a relatively short number with the much better all-around team. Take Indiana (10*). |
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08-05-20 | Raptors v. Magic +6.5 | 109-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors have impressed through two games since the restart, notching wins over the Lakers and Heat. I believe there's a chance we see them overlook the Magic on Wednesday, however, as they have a date with the Celtics looming on Friday. Orlando has gone 2-1 here in the 'bubble' but is coming off a double-digit loss against the Pacers last time out. While Toronto will be looking to sweep the 'season series' with the Magic I expect it to be in tough. Take Orlando (10*). |
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08-05-20 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Utah at 2:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies have struggled since the restart, going 0-3 but they've been competitive in all three games. They're coming off their worst effort though against the Pelicans last time out so I look for them to come out strong in this winnable game against the Jazz on Wednesday. Utah will certainly be motivated coming off back-to-back losses but I simply feel they're being asked to lay too many points in this spot. Note that this will be the first of a three game in four days stretch for the Jazz. Look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Memphis (10*). |
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03-11-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -1 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Denver at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I look for the Mavs to bounce back from last night's double-digit loss at the hands of the Spurs as they return home to host the Nuggets on Wednesday. Denver is without question a formidable opponent but I like the significant edges Dallas holds in pace, three-point shooting and rebounding in this matchup. This is an important, albeit brief two-game homestand for the Mavs off back-to-back losses. The Nuggets haven't won consecutive games since February 23rd and 25th and while they're off a victory over the Bucks last time out, that wasn't quite as impressive as it appears on paper as Milwaukee was without Giannis. Take Dallas (10*). |
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03-09-20 | Hornets +4.5 v. Hawks | 138-143 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I think there's reason to be optimistic when it comes to the Hornets right now. Of course, it would be easy to dismiss Saturday's upset win over the Rockets as a fluke - or that they simply caught Houston a down night. However, we've seen a positive trend from Charlotte as it has been competitive in each of its last six games since suffering an embarrassing blowout loss in Indiana on February 25th. This will be the Hornets first road test this month. They've actually won four of their last five games away from home. The Hawks have lost three straight games and Trae Young has cooled considerably, scoring 25 points or less in each of his last four games. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers -2.5 | 112-103 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the LA Clippers minus the points over the LA Lakers at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers have certainly posted some statement wins lately with those including Friday's victory over Giannis and the Bucks. I look for them to fall short on Sunday, however, as they take on the rolling Clippers at Staples Center. The Clips have won six games in a row and enter this one well rested having last played on Thursday night in Houston - a game where they didn't really need to expend a ton of energy after building a 23-point halftime lead. Kawhi and co. got the better of the Lakers in their last meeting on Christmas Day and I expect more of the same here. Take the LA Clippers (10*). |
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03-04-20 | Pelicans +7 v. Mavs | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans suffered a disappointing loss at home against the T'Wolves last night but should bounce back on Wednesday night in Dallas. Zion and the Pelicans should have no trouble getting up for a game against Luka Doncic and the Mavs. Last night was simply a brutal motivational spot for New Orleans coming off Sunday's showdown with Lebron and the Lakers - a ho-hum Tuesday night home game against the lowly Wolves. Different story here. Expect a competitive game. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-02-20 | Blazers v. Magic -7 | 130-107 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Portland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Magic have a lot of upside right now and I look for them to easily brush aside the Blazers on Monday night. Orlando checks in sixth in the NBA in offensive rating over its last five games. While it sits just 20th in defensive rating over that stretch, the Blazers have been even worse, ranking 24th. Portland is also just 22nd in offensive rating over its last five contests. Take Orlando (10*). |
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02-26-20 | Magic -2 v. Hawks | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks came roaring out of the All-Star break, delivering consecutive wins over the Heat and Mavericks on their home floor. They fell back to Earth on Monday, however, suffering a 17-point loss in Philadelphia, giving up a whopping 129 points in the process. I look for the Magic to add to their woes on Wednesday night in Atlanta. Note that Orlando is 13-5 ATS when facing teams that own a winning percentage of between 25% and 40% this season and 22-11 ATS when facing opponents that are outscored by at least three points per game over the last two seasons. In both of those situations, they've outscored the opposition by an average margin of nine points. It's also worth noting that the Hawks are a miserable 1-8 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season - outscored by a margin of nearly 16 points in that situation. The Magic have certainly been a streaky team and they come in having won three of their last four games overall, with the lone loss coming in an underdog role at home against Dallas. Take Orlando (10*). |
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02-25-20 | Celtics -7 v. Blazers | 118-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics are coming off a loss to the Lakers on Sunday but that doesn't take away from the fact they've been playing terrific basketball, winners of three in a row ATS entering this contest. We successfully faded the Blazers in their last game - a narrow three-point win over the lowly Pistons at home. Keep in mind, in their first game following the All-Star break they suffered a double-digit loss against the Pelicans. Portland is just 4-14 ATS as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, outscored by over nine points on average in those contests. Despite the Blazers reputation as a team that likes to play fast, they've gone a miserable 11-23 ATS when facing teams that attempt at least 88 shots per game this season, with Boston falling in that category. Take Boston (10*). |
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02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz -7.5 | 131-111 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Jazz are coming off back-to-back losses to the Spurs and Rockets here on their home floor but they do draw a 'get right' matchup with the Suns on Monday night. Note that Utah has gone 40-22 ATS the last 62 times it has played at home following a double-digit home loss. Phoenix is a miserable 19-35 ATS playing on the road against a winning team in the second half of the season over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of nearly 14 points in those games. The Jazz desperately need to turn things around before facing what will be a highly-motivated, and championship-contending Celtics squad in their next game. Meanwhile, Phoenix could have one foot on the plane as it prepares to return home for its next six games after completing this three-game in four-night stretch. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-22-20 | Nets -3 v. Hornets | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Nets aren't going to be a popular bet as a road favorite in Charlotte on Saturday night but I see this as a great spot to back them coming off that overtime loss in Philadelphia on Thursday. Charlotte has surprisingly won three straight games following a five-game losing streak but those three wins, albeit coming on the road, came against the likes of Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago. Here, we play against underdogs coming off three or more consecutive wins in February, a trend that has gone 59-29 ATS since 1996. The Nets fall into an excellent 47-21 ATS situation in which teams are revenging a loss as a favorite of seven points or more against a team coming off at least two straight wins as an underdog. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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02-21-20 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Pacers as they head to Manhattan to square off against the Knicks. Indiana finally 'got right' with a much needed win over the Bucks in its last game prior to the All-Star break. Now the Pacers fall into a couple of terrific situations. They've gone 42-25 ATS after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons. They're also 15-4 ATS the last 19 times they've given up 105 points or more in five consecutive games, as is the case here. The Knicks certainly haven't shown that same type of resiliency, going 35-52 ATS after losing two of their last three over the last three seasons. New York enjoyed a brief surge earlier this month but has since gone right back into the tank with losses to the lowly Hawks and Wizards. This is precisely the type of game the Pacers need to get up for and not overlook, as they begin a grueling stretch that will see them play seven of their next nine games on the road. Take Indiana (10*). |
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02-20-20 | Rockets v. Warriors +10 | 135-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Houston at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. It's easy to forget that the Warriors were actually playing a little better prior to the All-Star break, having gone 7-5 ATS over their last 12 games. They're hosting a Rockets team that will be looking for revenge after suffering a 116-104 loss on this floor back on Christmas Day. Keep in mind, Houston has gone just 56-84 ATS the last 140 times it has gone on the road revenging a double-digit loss. This game presents an opportunity for somewhat of a fresh start for the Warriors coming out of the break. The Rockets will need to get rolling again from a standing start after shooting 46.3% or worse while allowing opponents to shoot 48.8% or better in three of their last four contests. Take Golden State (10*). |
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02-20-20 | Heat v. Hawks +6 | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Heat took the spotlight on All-Star Saturday night last weekend with Bam Adebayo winning the Skills Challenge and Dennis Smith Jr. winning the Slam Dunk Contest. It's back to business for the Heat on Thursday as they head to Atlanta to face the lowly Hawks. I like the way this spot sets up for Atlanta, noting that it has gone 32-19 ATS after losing three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The Hawks also fall into a strong revenge angle in which teams that are revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, and coming off an upset loss by 15 points or more (Atlanta lost its last game by 22 points as a three-point favorite against Cleveland) have gone an incredible 36-10 ATS the last 46 times that situation has come up. The Heat have been sleepwalking lately, going 4-7 ATS over their last 11 games and I look for the Hawks to take advantage of that lull here. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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02-13-20 | Clippers +2 v. Celtics | 133-141 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. This is a big step-up game for the Clippers as they come off a poor showing in Philadelphia two nights ago. I fully expect to see Los Angeles' best effort in this nationally-televised TNT affair. Note that the Clippers have gone an impressive 31-19 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons. They're also an incredible 24-7 ATS off a road loss over that same stretch. Here we play against the Celtics as they fall into a situation that is a miserable 8-33 ATS since 1996 and 3-8 ATS this season where teams that outscore the opposition by 6+ points per game come off three consecutive games allowing 105 points or more. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-12-20 | Hornets v. Wolves -7.5 | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Charlotte at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. This game has blowout written all over it as the T'Wolves return home to host the Hornets on Wednesday night. Minnesota finally brought an end to its long losing streak with a blowout win over the Clippers at home on Saturday but couldn't follow it up as it dropped a 12-point decision in Toronto on Monday. I do feel that game was closer than the final score indicated, however, and I'm confident we'll see the new-look T'Wolves come out with plenty of energy back home on Wednesday night. Charlotte picked up a rare victory on Monday night, but that came at the expense of the lowly Pistons who are in full tank mode after dealing Andre Drummond at the trade deadline. The Hornets are just 9-19 on the road this season and I don't expect them to hang with the Wolves on Wednesday. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-10-20 | Wolves +9.5 v. Raptors | 126-137 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Monday. The T’Wolves suddenly have some upside after making wholesale changes prior to the trade deadline last week. Over its last five games, Minnesota has quietly crept into the top-12 in the league in offense rating while also showing some improvement (relatively speaking), with eight teams sitting below them in the defensive rating rankings over that stretch. The Raptors are in the midst of a record-setting winning streak but they’ve narrowly escaped with two of their last three losses and now face a bit of a flat spot in a non-conference matchup before a rematch with the Nets (who they beat 119-118 on Saturday) coming up next. I look for Minnesota to find enough success offensively to keep within arm’s reach tonight. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-07-20 | Blazers v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Let's try this again. We missed the mark with the Jazz in last Saturday's loss in Portland but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as the spot sets up much better. Portland is coming off a 125-117 win over the Spurs last night (we won with the 'over') but will now be playing its third game in the last four nights, in three different cities - with two of those games being played in altitude (the other was a 127-99 loss in Denver on Tuesday - we won with the Nuggets in that game). Utah plays just its second game since last Saturday. While the Blazers continue to perform well offensively, Damian Lillard has cooled off following an incredible scoring run. After scoring at least 34 points in eight straight games, Lillard has put up just 47 over his last two contests. Note that the Jazz check in third in the league in defensive rating at home this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 13th in the league in offensive rating on the road compared to fourth in that category at home. Portland sits 25th in the NBA in defensive rating on the road. Utah enters having lost five games in a row and this is certainly the game for them to turn things around with a trip to Texas to face the Rockets and Mavs looming. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-06-20 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans bandwagon has cleared somewhat following back-to-back losses at Houston and at home against Milwaukee. Neither of those losses were unexpected although it would have been nice if they could have stepped up and stole one of them as a statement victory of sorts. Nevertheless, the Pelicans hit the road on Thursday for a very winnable game against the Bulls. While Chicago has gone 4-1 over its last five home games, note that three of those victories came against three of the league's worst teams in Washington, Cleveland and Minnesota. The other came against another losing team, San Antonio. Only two teams have been worse than the Bulls in terms of defensive rating over their last five games, the Cavs and Wizards. Not exactly good company. Meanwhile, the Pelicans check in sixth in defensive rating over that same stretch, despite a tough schedule. New Orleans also ranks an impressive second in the league in pace rating over its last five contests while the Bulls sit 23rd. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-05-20 | Suns -3 v. Pistons | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are injury-ravaged and likely looking at some changes before Thursday's trade deadline. With that being said, I think the Suns have a lot more upside and should have little trouble disposing of the reeling Pistons at Little Caesar's Arena on Wednesday night. Yes, Phoenix has lost three games in a row but did anyone really expect any wins out of a stretch that saw it face Oklahoma City at home (it lost by only four points) and Milwaukee and Brooklyn (noting the Nets have been playing much better lately) on the road? Here, the Suns have a solid opportunity to at least salvage something on their current road trip as they face the undermanned Pistons. Detroit has just one win in its last seven games and it came by way of overtime in an early start against a weary Nuggets squad on Super Bowl Sunday. Phoenix checks in ranking sixth in the NBA in pace rating over its last five games while the Pistons sit 27th over that same stretch. I look for the Suns to run Detroit out of the gym here. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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02-04-20 | Spurs v. Lakers -12 | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Antonio at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs gave the Clippers all they could handle last night here at Staples Center but really what else could we have expected given how inconsistent the Clips have been lately? Here, I look for a highly-motivated performance from the Lakers, who struggled in their first game following the tragic passing of Kobe Bryant last week but then responded with a blowout win in Sacramento the very next night. While the Spurs have been close in each of their last two road tilts, they remain just 8-15 away from home this season. LaMarcus Aldridge and Demar Derozan accounted for over half of their 105 points last night. Look for the Lakers to use their depth to ultimately pull away from San Antonio on Tuesday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-04-20 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 99-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the surging Trail Blazers on Tuesday night. Portland checks in having won four straight games after dropping 11 of its previous 16 contests. Of course, the Blazers have been riding the extremely hot hand of Damian Lillard during their current streak. Portland actually ranks number one in the league in offensive rating over its last five contests. I'm just not sure it's sustainable, in fact, I know it's note. As good as they've been offensively, the Blazers check in 24th in the Association in defensive rating over that same five-game stretch. Denver suffered an overtime loss in a matinee affair in Detroit on Sunday, snapping a mini two-game winning streak. The Nuggets are still a solid 11-6 since the start of January. They've gone 17-4 in their last 21 games here in the high altitude of Denver. The last time these two teams squared off in December the Nuggets rolled to a 114-99 victory. Lillard will get his, but I look for Denver to prevail. Take Denver (10*). |
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02-03-20 | Mavs v. Pacers -4.5 | 112-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Monday. It's been a bit of a struggle for the Mavs lately as they've gone just 3-4 over their last seven games since reeling off four straight wins from January 11th to 17th. They're coming off a blowout win on Saturday night but that came at home against the lowly Hawks. The Pacers were stunned by the Knicks at home on Saturday night so will certainly be highly-motivated to bounce back here. Perhaps they were caught flat-footed following a 115-106 overtime win over the Bulls in Victor Oladipo's long-awaited return to the lineup in their previous game. Whatever the case, I expect to see a much sharper performance from them here. Take Indiana (10*). |
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02-01-20 | Jazz -5 v. Blazers | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. This has not been a good week for the Jazz as they have dropped three games in a row, starting with a loss as a double-digit favorite at home against a Rockets team that was without Harden and Westbrook. Since then, we've seen Utah drop back-to-back games on the road but I look for it to bounce back here on Saturday as it faces what has to be an emotionally-drained Blazers squad coming off last night's victory over the Lakers in Los Angeles - the Lakers first game following the tragic passing of Kobe Bryant. Portland ranks a miserable 28th in defensive rating playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the Jazz have been generally solid on the road, where they rank top-11 in both offensive and defensive rating. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-01-20 | Wolves v. Clippers -9.5 | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Minnesota at 3:35 pm et on Saturday. Clippers head coach Doc Rivers was disgusted with his team's effort in their most recent game - a blowout home loss to the Kings. I fully expect a return to form from Los Angeles as it hosts the lowly Timberwolves here. Minnesota has lost 10 games in a row and this doesn't appear to be a favorable spot to turn things around. Note that the T'Wolves check in 21st in the league in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating over their last five games. While the Clippers certainly haven't been at their best lately, they do still hold down the 10th spot in defensive rating over their last five contests. This wouldn't ordinarily be a circled game for the Clips but because of their awful performance last time out, I expect them to show up and show out at Staples Center. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-31-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -11.5 | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Friday. It will undoubtedly be an emotional night for the entire Lakers organization on Friday as they play their first game since the passing of Kobe Bryant. I'm anticipating a strong performance from Los Angeles as it hosts the surging Trail Blazers. While Portland has won three of its last four games overall, keep in mind all four of those contests were played at home. The Blazers check in ranking 25th in the league in defensive rating away from home. By contrast, the Lakers are second in that category here at home. L.A. also checks in top-10 in offensive rating at Staples Center. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-30-20 | Jazz +1.5 v. Nuggets | 100-106 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with our free pick on the Jazz last night in San Antonio but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again here. Utah still ranks fourth in the league in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating over its last five contests. It also checks in just outside the top-10 in 11th place in pace rating over that stretch. The Nuggets have been lagging offensively, ranking 21st in offensive rating and 23rd in pace rating over their last five contests. They're always going to find themselves near the top in most defensive categories, I'm just not sure it will be enough against a highly-motivated Jazz squad here. Take Utah (10*). |
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01-30-20 | Warriors v. Celtics -13.5 | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Celtics in a game that has blowout potential on Thursday night. Golden State continues to struggle, ranking 28th in the league in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating over its last five games. While the Warriors do rank top-10 in pace rating over that stretch that could be to their detriment here. That's because the Celtics are rolling again, ranking sixth in offensive rating and third in defensive rating over their last five contests. While they're just middling in terms of pace rating over that stretch, I'm not all that concerned as they should get plenty of transition opportunities against the Warriors. Take Boston (10*). |
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01-30-20 | Raptors -10 v. Cavs | 115-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This game certainly has letdown potential for Toronto coming off back-to-back emotional wins over the Spurs and Hawks following the tragic passing of Kobe Bryant but I believe the Raptors will be up to the challenge in Cleveland on Thursday night. The Cavs continue to struggle. They had a glimmer of hope earlier this week as they got past the reeling Pistons in Detroit but couldn't follow it up as they were easily disposed of by the Pelicans the next night. The Raptors enter this contest in fine form, ranking ninth in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating over their last five games. The lowly Cavs on the other hand sit 24th in both of those categories. Despite the strong showing in the Motor City earlier this week, Cleveland still sits just 22nd in the league in pace rating over its last five contests - a stark contrast to the Raptors seventh ranking in that department. Take Toronto (10*). |
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01-29-20 | Pistons +6 v. Nets | 115-125 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Pistons in this same matchup last Saturday as they covered the number in regulation time but ultimately fell by double-digits in overtime. There's really not much separating these two teams at all right now and I'll gladly take all the points I can get with the Pistons in a big bounce-back spot on Wednesday night. Motivation will be especially high for Detroit coming off an embarrassing loss at home against the lowly Cavs on Monday. Meanwhile, Brooklyn went right back in the tank following Saturday's win in the Motor City, falling to the Knicks. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-28-20 | Wizards v. Bucks -16 | 131-151 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: Giannis Antetokounmpo will not play in this game and as a result the line has dropped considerably. The 9* play on the Bucks stands at the current number. We're dealing with a steep pointspread with the Bucks here but just as we did a couple of weeks ago when they hosted the Knicks, we won't hesitate to go back to the well with Milwaukee in another smash spot on Wednesday night. The line would likely be even higher were it not for the fact that Milwaukee is returning home following last Friday's tilt in Paris. The Wizards are coming off an embarrassing beatdown at the hands of the lowly Atlanta Hawks on Sunday. Only the Blazers have been worse in terms of defensive rating over their last five games. While Washington does rank 12th in offensive rating over that same stretch, it is going to have a tough time keeping pace with Milwaukee in this one. Note that the Bucks sit atop the Association in defensive rating over their last five contests. They also hold top spot in pace rating over that time frame. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Bucks and I expect a lopsided result. Take Milwaukee (9*). |
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01-27-20 | Cavs v. Pistons -6.5 | Top | 115-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This is the perfect storm to back the Pistons as they host the lowly Cavs on Monday night. Detroit has won two of three meetings with Cleveland this season, splitting the most recent two affairs with both of those games going down to the wire. I expect more of a lopsided contest here as the Pistons aim to bounce back from consecutive discouraging losses against the Grizzlies and Nets - both at home - on Friday and Saturday. Note that despite their recent struggles in the w/l column, Detroit actually checks in top 10 in the league in offensive rating and top nine in defensive rating over its last five contests. By contrast, Cleveland sits 24th and 25th respectively in those two categories. Most will want no part of laying points with the Pistons here off Saturday's frustrating overtime loss and non-cover against the Nets. I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for Detroit laying a very reasonable number against one of the league's worst teams. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-26-20 | Celtics v. Pelicans +1.5 | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Boston at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Pelicans have gone 0-2 since Zion Williamson made his debut earlier this week but I believe they'll have a good shot at getting back in the win column here against the streaking Celtics. Boston has won three games in a row but prior to that it had dropped six of its last eight contests. The Pelicans will certainly have revenge on their minds after suffering a 35-point beatdown at the hands of the Celtics back on January 11th. Note that prior to losing its last two games, New Orleans had won five of its last seven games. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-25-20 | Nets v. Pistons +2 | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I simply feel that the wrong team is favored in this matchup as the Pistons have been playing some pretty good basketball lately and should be up for the challenge against Kyrie Irving and the Nets on Saturday. Detroit ranks an impressive sixth in both offensive and defensive rating over its last five games while Brooklyn checks in 28th and 23rd in those two categories respectively over the same stretch. While the Nets have undoubtedly faced a tougher schedule than the Pistons over their last five contests and Irving has been injured, the fact is, this has been a disappointing campaign for 18-25 Brooklyn. Coming off a 125-112 loss at home against the Grizzlies, motivation should be high for the Pistons here. They beat the Nets as a four-point underdog here at home back on November 2nd. Brooklyn will be desperate to snap a five-game skid but it hasn't won on the road since way back on December 17th in New Orleans. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-22-20 | Grizzlies +7 v. Celtics | 95-119 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Celtics are coming off an epic beatdown of the Lakers on Monday night but I believe that only serves to leave them overvalued as they host the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Memphis checks in ranking sixth in offensive rating, 14th in defensive rating and seventh in pace rating over its last five games. While the Celtics do rank fourth in offensive rating over that same stretch, they're a miserable 24th in defensive rating and a middling 12th in pace rating. I simply feel the Grizzlies will be able to keep up with the C's all night long on Wednesday. Take Memphis (10*). |
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01-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -6.5 | 112-107 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Oklahoma City at 5:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Thunder on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade them as they hit the road to face the Rockets on Monday afternoon in Houston. Note that the Thunder rank a miserable 26th in defensive rating over their last five games and will be hard-pressed to slow a Rockets offense that ranks third in the league in pace rating over their last five contests. Having dropped four games over that stretch, Houston will undoubtedly be highly-motivated to get back on track here and won't take the upstart Thunder lightly. I had this pointspread pegged a couple of points steeper, so I'll gladly back Houston at a discount here. Take Houston (10*). |
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01-18-20 | Blazers v. Thunder -4.5 | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Portland at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Thunder on Saturday night as they look to bounce back following consecutive losses here at home. Portland is in a tough scheduling spot here, playing for the third time in four nights on the road, splitting the previous two including an upset win in Houston and a tough battle in Dallas last night. Despite dropping their last two games, the Thunder still rank ninth in the NBA in offensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Blazers sit 19th in that category over the same stretch. While Oklahoma City has struggled defensively, it still ranks two spots ahead of Portland in terms of defensive rating over its last five contests. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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01-17-20 | Cavs v. Grizzlies -8 | 109-113 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the upstart Grizzlies on Friday night as they host the lowly Cavs. Cleveland did open its current road trip with consecutive wins in Detroit and Denver but it's been all downhill from there as it checks in off back-to-back blowout losses against the Lakers and Clippers in Los Angeles. Memphis ranks 4th and 9th in offensive and defensive rating respectively over its last five games, not to mention 6th in pace rating. Meanwhile, the Cavs have settled back into their woeful ways, sitting 21st in offensive rating, 29th in defensive rating and 25th in pace rating over that same time frame. Take Memphis (10*). |
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01-16-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans +5 | 132-138 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Jazz are red hot right now, winners of 10 games in a row. I do expect them to face a stiff challenge in New Orleans on Thursday night, however. While the Jazz are on top of the league rankings in offensive rating over their last 10 games, the Pelicans also find themselves inside the top 10 in that category. While New Orleans sits inside the top 10 in pace rating as well, Utah is in 21st over its last five contests. I simply like the way the Pelicans are playing right now and certainly feel they'll be up for this showdown at home. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-15-20 | Blazers v. Rockets -7.5 | 117-107 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Portland at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets are banged up and playing the second of back-to-back nights so it's understandable that they're laying a relatively short number against the Blazers on Wednesday. I believe the line will prove too short. Note that Houston ranks just outside the top 10 in offensive rating over its last five games, sitting in 11th. The Rockets somewhat surprisingly (to some) find themselves in 10th in defensive rating over that same stretch and an even more impressive third in pace rating. Meanwhile, the Blazers have struggled in all three of those departments, ranking 19th, 24th and 18th respectively over that same time frame. There's no shame in the Rockets loss against a steadily improving Grizzlies squad on the road last night. Expect a solid bounce-back performance here. Take Houston (10*). |
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01-14-20 | Knicks v. Bucks -16.5 | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with an extremely high pointspread here in favor of the Bucks but it's warranted in my opinion. New York continues to struggle and checks in last in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests, and the scary thing is, it's not really all that close. The Knicks won't have a hope of slowing down a Bucks squad that sits second in the NBA in pace rating over their last five contests. New York hasn't shied away from playing an up-tempo style lately and I think that backfires here as the Bucks should be able to name their score and will be happy to be back home following a western road trip. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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01-13-20 | Magic v. Kings -1.5 | 114-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Orlando at 10:05 pm et on Monday. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Kings coming off what looked on paper like a blowout loss to the Bucks at home. That game was closer than the final score indicated and we should see a highly-motivated Sacramento squad in rebound mode here on Monday. The Magic battled hard but ultimately fell short in Phoenix on Friday (we won with the Suns in that game). Orlando has now dropped five of its last six games on the road and could get caught looking ahead to a trip to Los Angeles for back-to-back games against the Lakers and Clippers beginning on Wednesday night. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-12-20 | Hawks +7.5 v. Nets | 86-108 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Brooklyn at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Nets snapped a seven-game losing streak with a win over the Heat on Friday night but that only serves to leave them overvalued as they host the lowly Hawks on Sunday. There really hasn't been much separating these two teams lately. The Nets actually rank a miserable 29th in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. There's reason to believe they could have a tough time keeping up with Atlanta, which ranks top 10 in pace rating over that same time frame. Brooklyn sits in the bottom half of the league in that department over its last five contests. With only eight wins on the season it's been mostly doom and gloom for the Hawks but they have to feel like this is a rare winnable game away from home. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-11-20 | 76ers v. Mavs -2 | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. The Mavs are coming off another tough loss last night, this one coming at the hands of the Lakers. I do expect Dallas to bounce back on Saturday, however, as it hosts Philadelphia. Despite struggling to find the win column, the Mavs still rank sixth in the NBA in offensive rating over their last five games. While their defensive play has left a lot to be desired, ranking a miserable 27th over that stretch, Philadelphia hasn't been much better, also finding itself in the bottom-10 over that time frame. Both teams are missing key cogs right now with Joel Embiid sidelined for the 76ers and Kristaps Porzingis out for Dallas. I'll lay the short number with the home side. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-10-20 | Magic v. Suns -3 | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Orlando at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We're getting a terrific number with the Suns here considering they were a 6.5-point favorite against the Kings last time out (we won with Sacramento in that game). The Magic have won three of their last four games but all four of those were played at home. They own five road wins this season but those have come against the Cavs (twice), Pelicans and Wizards (twice). This is the start of a long six-game road trip for Orlando. Playing on two days' rest and having not traveled since New Year's Day, I like this spot for the Suns. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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01-09-20 | Blazers v. Wolves +2 | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Portland at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Trail Blazers are fresh off a come-from-behind win over the defending champion Raptors two nights ago but Toronto isn't the same team right now as it deals with a number of key injuries. Keep in mind, Portland has won just twice in its last eight games with the other victory coming against the 12-25 Wizards. Minnesota has been dealing with its share of injuries as well but does check in having gone 4-3 over its last seven games, including a 2-1 mark here at home. The T'Wolves battled hard but fell by a 119-112 score in Memphis two nights ago but are well-positioned to rebound in this spot. Minnesota has a number of key advantages in this matchup as it ranks tied for third in the league in pace, sixth in three-pointers made per game and seventh in rebounds per game. Portland finds itself outside the top 10 in all of those categories. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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01-08-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -3 | 107-106 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Denver at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavericks are still trying to find some consistency and round back into form with Luka Doncic back in the lineup and they took a step in the right direction with a 118-110 win over Chicago last time out. While they've still lost three of their last five games, two of those losses came against the Lakers and the red hot Thunder on the road and the other by way of overtime in a true flat spot at home against the Hornets. I don't think there's any question they'll be up for this matchup with the Nuggets. Note that Denver ranks dead last in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. The Nuggets have tried to make up for it at the offensive end of the floor, where they rank second in offensive rating over that same stretch but the Mavs have been rising in that department as well, ranking ninth over their last five contests. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-07-20 | Kings +6.5 v. Suns | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Kings as they travel to face the Suns on Tuesday night. We suffered what could only be considered a bad beat fading the Suns on this floor last week against the Knicks but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, noting that Phoenix has gone just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. Kings are off a 2-2 homestand and need to build here before returning home for tough matchups with Milwaukee, Orlando and Dallas. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-03-20 | Knicks +6.5 v. Suns | 112-120 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Knicks are doing a couple of things really well right now, they're playing tough defense (fifth in the league in defensive rating last five games) and they're pushing the pace at every opportunity (sixth in pace rating L5). That sets them up well as they head to Phoenix to take on the struggling Suns. New York has actually split its last four matchups here in the desert. It's not as if Phoenix holds any sort of home court advantage, having won just seven times in 16 tries on this floor this season. Take New York (10*). |
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01-02-20 | Hornets v. Cavs -2 | 109-106 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hornets are really struggling right now and after cashing a fade of them two nights ago, I won't hesitate to go back to the well against them on Thursday. Charlotte checks in a miserable 27th in the league in both offensive and defensive rating over its last five games, not to mention the fact that it sits dead last in pace rating over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Cavs have shown some signs of life, sitting around the middle of the pack in defensive rating and an impressive top-four (tied with the Bucks) in pace rating over their last five contests. Offensively, they're not going to blow the doors off of anyone but I do see this as a favorable matchup on their home floor. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-31-19 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hornets | 109-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Charlotte at 3:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a blowout waiting to happen as the Celtics roll into Charlotte to face the struggling Hornets. Boston ranks fourth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating over its last five games while Charlotte checks in 25th in both categories over the same stretch. While the Celtics haven't been pushing the pace all that much, sitting 20th in pace rating over their last five, the Hornets pull up the league's rear in that category over the same time frame. Unless the C's absolutely overlook the Hornets on New Year's Eve, this should be a rout. Take Boston (10*). |
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12-25-19 | Bucks -3.5 v. 76ers | 109-121 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Philadelphia at 2:35 pm et on Wednesday. Full writeups will return on Thursday. The Bucks check in top-four in offensive rating and top-two in defensive rating over their last five games. Solid spot to back the road favorite here. Best of luck today. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-23-19 | Bulls +4.5 v. Magic | 95-103 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Magic just aren't very good right now, losers of six of their last seven games overall, and now they find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot, playing their first game back at home following a 1-3 road trip out west. Meanwhile, the Bulls have won back-to-back games and sport a 4-2 mark over their last six games. They'll look to carry some positive momentum into the short holiday break before returning home to host the Hawks on the 28th of the month. Take Chicago (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | 128-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Nuggets in the last meeting between these two teams but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Denver at a more favorable line this time around. The Lakers have cooled off considerably and are coming off back-to-back losses in Indiana and Milwaukee. Note that Denver checks in second in the league in offensive rating over its last five games. Meanwhile, the Lakers dropped to 20th in the NBA in that department over the same stretch. Denver is also top-10 in defensive rating over that time frame. The Lakers may bounce back with a win here, but I'm not convinced they do it by margin. Take Denver (10*). |
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12-20-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Blazers | 103-118 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll take a flyer on the Magic on Friday night as they get out of the dreaded back-to-back set in the high altitude of Salt Lake City and Denver and head to Portland to challenge the Trail Blazers. Orlando has dropped five of its last six games overall so motivation will certainly be high for this one. While the Magic haven't had much success in this series, it hasn't been for lack of trying as four of the Blazers last five wins over Orlando have come by single-digit margins. These two teams haven't faced one another in over a year. Portland checks in off back-to-back wins but let's not get too excited about that as the first victory came by a single point in Phoenix and the second came at home against the injury-plagued and disinterested Warriors. The Blazers have won more than two games in a row just once this season and they failed to cover the spread in the final win during that streak. Take Orlando (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Lakers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Bucks, much like the fade of the Mavs set up last night. Of course, earlier this week we saw the Luka Doncic-less Mavs stun the Bucks here in Milwaukee. They were in for a letdown against the Celtics last night as a result, and ultimately lost by six points. Now the Bucks are back to rebound off that ugly loss to the Mavs and they'll have no shortage of motivation against Lebron and the Lakers on Thursday night. I really do think the Bucks will be able to run the Lakers out of the gym in this one. Milwaukee remains number one in the league in offensive rating over its last five games. Meanwhile, the Lakers have tailed off a bit in that department, ranking 11th. The key here is the pace the Bucks play at, ranking fifth in the league in pace rating over their last five contests while the Lakers sit 19th over that same time frame. Look for Milwaukee to make a statement here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-18-19 | Celtics -1.5 v. Mavs | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. This is a no-brainer fading the Luca Doncic-less Mavs off their big win over the Bucks in Milwaukee on Monday night. The Celtics check in playing excellent basketball, ranking third in offensive rating over their last five games while also sitting in the top half of the league in defensive rating. The Mavs have been as good as it gets offensively over that same stretch but there's no question they're going to miss Doncic. I'm sure the Celtics learned a thing or two watching the Bucks get caught flat-footed against the Mavs on Monday. Look for Boston to answer the bell on Wednesday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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12-17-19 | Nets -2 v. Pelicans | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Pelicans continue to struggle defensively, ranking 28th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games and I don't believe this is the matchup that will fix their problems. New Orleans has been pushing the tempo, sitting top-10 in the league in pace rating over its last five contests but I'm not sure that will serve it particularly well in this matchup with the Nets starting to come together defensively, ranking an impressive seventh in the league in defensive rating over that same period. Note that the Nets sit just five spots back of the Pelicans in terms of pace rating over their last five, at the edge of the league's top half. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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