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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-12-19 | Cavs v. Spurs -11 | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Cavs last night but I won't hesitate to fade them as they hit the road to face the Spurs on Thursday. San Antonio has been a general disappointment this season but finds itself in an absolutely gorgeous spot against the lowly Cavs playing on no rest. The Spurs have been playing better lately, winners of three of their last four games, including a 2-0 mark on their current homestand. Playing their third straight at the AT&T Center, they're in excellent shape to keep their good fortune on Thursday night. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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12-11-19 | Lakers v. Magic +7.5 | 96-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't like this spot at all for the road weary Lakers. They of course swept a three-game trip through Denver, Utah and Portland last week before returning home to blow the doors off the T'Wolves on Sunday. Now they have to head way east to face the Magic, who are no pushovers, winners of four of their last five games. The Lakers obviously own the far better straight-up record this season but the Magic have a very similar ATS mark. Look for a tightly-contested affair. Take Orlando (10*). |
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12-11-19 | Rockets v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets have failed to cover the double-digit spread in each of their last two games, most recently losing outright against the Kings, at home no less. Here, I believe they're once again overvalued, noting that they've lost two of their last three games here in Cleveland and check in just 11-12 ATS on the season. The Cavs are reeling right now but that's to be expected. Let's face it, they're not going to win many games this season. After getting blown out on the road against Philadelphia and Boston I do think they'll benefit from returning home, and from facing a weak defensive team in the Rockets. Houston is simply laying too many points in this flat spot in its schedule. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-06-19 | Lakers v. Blazers +4 | Top | 136-113 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. At the surface, this may have appeared to be one of the more obvious wins on the Lakers current road trip but now that they've gotten off to a 2-0 start with impressive wins in Denver and Salt Lake City, I believe this is a tricky spot for Lebron James and co. The Blazers are still a losing team on the season but they've been playing better basketball lately, checking in fifth in the league in offensive rating and top 10 in pace rating over their last five games. Their defensive play leaves something to be desired but the Lakers are certainly in a tough spot here, playing for the third time in four nights off back-to-back games in altitude. I'lll grab all the points I can get with the Blazers here. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | 105-96 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers may own the better overall record and get a lot more press than the Nuggets, but I believe the jury is still out as to whether they're actually the better team. Denver always owns a solid home court advantage and this season has been no different as it checks in with an 8-2 mark. The Lakers are in bounce-back mode off a 14-point loss at home to the Mavericks on Sunday. I'm just not sure this is an ideal bounce-back spot - in fact, I know it's not. The home team has taken eight of the last nine meetings in this series with Denver taking the most recent meeting in Los Angeles last March. Take Denver (10*). |
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12-03-19 | Pistons -2 v. Cavs | 127-94 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Pistons check in top-nine in the league in both offensive and defensive rating over their last five games and while they're not going to run away and hide in this matchup, I do think they should be laying more than a bucket against the lowly Cavaliers. Cleveland has been particularly bad at the defensive end of the floor of late, ranking 29th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. Neither team will look to really push the pace in this one and that serves Detroit just fine as it should cruise to a comfortable road win. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-22-19 | Hawks +6.5 v. Pistons | 103-128 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates but I believe the Hawks have a little more upside heading into Friday night's contest in Detroit. Atlanta has had the Pistons number in the Motor City in recent years, winning each of the last two meetings here outright and four straight ATS. Neither team checks in sporting solid form offensively. The Hawks sit 23rd in the league in offensive rating over their last five games while the Pistons are just two spots ahead of them over that same stretch. Atlanta actually pulls up the league rear in terms of defensive rating over its last five games but the Pistons haven't been much better in that regard either, sitting 26th. The reason I believe the Hawks can put one over on Detroit here is the fact that they are second in the league in pace rating over their last five contests while the Pistons rank in the league's bottom-eight. If Atlanta can effectively push the pace here it should be able to really expose a struggling Detroit defense. The Hawks don't play much 'D' themselves, but I'm simply not convinced the Pistons can take advantage. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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11-20-19 | Pistons v. Bulls -1 | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Bulls have only been installed as a short favorite in this one but I believe there's a good chance they run the Pistons off the floor at United Center on Wednesday. Note that Detroit does check in showing excellent form offensively, ranking sixth in the league in offensive rating over its last five games. There are a couple of problems, however. The Pistons are 26th in pace rating over that same stretch and face a Bulls squad that sits in the top half of the league in defensive rating over their last five games as well. Chicago impressively sits atop the league in pace rating over that same period and should be able to take full advantage of a Pistons team that ranks 26th in defensive rating. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-20-19 | Bucks -11 v. Hawks | 135-127 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Bucks as they head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. Milwaukee's offense has lagged a little of late, and we took advantage of that fact by playing the 'under' in its last game in Chicago on Monday night. However, this is a true 'get right' spot against a Hawks squad that ranks dead last in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. Note that over that same stretch, no team ranks higher in pace rating than the Bucks. While Atlanta likes to push the pace as well, and sits right behind the Bucks in pace rating over its last five contests, I'm not sure it will be able to find much success given Milwaukee ranks best in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. Atlanta's offensive efficiency is lagging right now as it ranks 26th in offensive rating over its last five games. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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11-18-19 | Thunder v. Clippers -9.5 | 88-90 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:35 pm et on Monday. This is a favorable spot for the Clippers as they aim to build off of Saturday's incredible 150-point outburst against Atlanta. That win snapped a two-game skid for Los Angeles so this is not time to get complacent. Note that the Thunder check in 17th in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating over their last five games. That's not to mention their less than impressive 19th standing in pace rating over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Clips are top-12 in offensive rating and top-3 in defensive rating while also sitting an impressive sixth in pace rating. It should only be a matter of time before L.A. pulls away in this one. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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11-18-19 | Blazers v. Rockets -7 | 108-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Portland at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the surging Rockets as they host the Blazers on Monday night. Portland is coming off a hard-fought road win in San Antonio two nights ago but should find the going a little tougher in this matchup. The Rockets check in top-10 in the league in offensive rating and first overall in defensive rating over their last five games. Not surprisingly they also land top-10 in pace rating. For the Blazers part, they barely land in the top half of the league in offensive rating, bottom-10 in defensive rating, and 16th in pace rating over their last five contests. Take Houston (10*). |
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11-15-19 | Celtics -7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Friday. This is the start of a five-game western road swing for the Celtics as they look to extend their winning streak to 10 games and I'm confident we'll see them do so in convincing fashion on Friday night. Note that Boston ranks tops in the league in offensive rating over its last five games, and by a considerable margin. Golden State on the other hand sits 28th over that same stretch. Really the only thing the Warriors have going for them right now is the fact that they've been pushing the tempo, sitting 12th in pace rating over their last five contests, but that should only open the door for the Celtics to really get loose offensively. Boston is in the top half of the league in defensive rating over its last five games while Golden State is just one spot shy of pulling up the rear, sitting 29th in that department. Take Boston (10*). |
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11-06-19 | Bucks +1 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I fully expect to see the Bucks take it to the Clippers on Wednesday night at Staples Center. Milwaukee checks in ranking first in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating over its last five games. It also ranks ninth in the league in pace rating over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Clippers sit in the middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive rating over their last five games and bottom-eight in pace rating. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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10-30-19 | Pacers v. Nets -3.5 | 118-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Indiana at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pacers are off to a winless start through three games and I don't see them finally getting into the win column in Brooklyn on Wednesday. Indiana checks in a miserable 22nd in the league in offensive rating and it has been even worse at the defensive end of the floor, ranking 25th in defensive rating. That's not to mention the fact the Pacers sit second-last in terms of pace rating. The Nets figure to take full advantage, noting that they rank fifth in the league in pace rating while sitting a solid eighth in offensive rating through their first three games. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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10-29-19 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -11.5 | 91-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I don't like the setup for the Grizzlies in this one as they head to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. This is an interesting matchup as the Grizzlies rank second in the league in pace rating while the Lakers check in second to last. I see this game going one of two ways. Either the Grizz try to push the tempo and get run out of the gym as the Lakers check in top 10 in the league in offensive rating while the Grizzlies are bottom-eight in defensive rating. Or the Lakers impose their will and slow this game to a crawl while the Memphis 26th ranked offensive rating rears its ugly head. Either way, I look for Los Angeles to cover the number. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-25-19 | Jazz +3 v. Lakers | 86-95 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up for the Jazz as they head to Los Angeles to challenge the overrated Lakers at Staples Center. As I've been harping on all week, preseason results do matter when it comes to the NBA. Note that the Jazz ranked 3rd in offensive rating and 1st in defensive rating during the exhibition slate while also finishing up 7th in terms of pace rating. The Lakers didn't show nearly as well, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive ratings. The did do a good job of pushing the pace and we saw a similar story unfold in their season-opener against the Clippers, however entering last night's action (realizing it's very early) they rated in the bottom-third of the league in offensive rating. The Jazz are top five in both offensive and defensive rating through a game. Take Utah (10*). |
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10-25-19 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The defending champion Raptors are going to get everyone's best shot this season but so far so good, as they survived their opening night test against the Zion-less Pelicans at home. As I've been preaching throughout the first week of the regular season, preseason results do matter in the NBA. Note that the Raptors wrapped up the exhibition slate ranking in the league's top 10 in offensive rating and top 4 in defensive rating. The Celtics on the other hand were a miserable 29th in terms of offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating over the course of the preseason. Despite being involved in an overtime fight with the Pelicans, the Raptors still showed well at both ends of the floor, ranking sixth in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating in early returns this season. This is a big test for the champs but I look for them to handle it well. Take Toronto (10*). |
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10-23-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | 119-110 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. As I noted in last night's analysis of two opening night totals winners, the preseason does matter when it comes to the NBA, at least to some extent. Here, I look for the Pacers to run the Pistons out of the gym. Note that the Pacers ranked top 11 in both offensive and defensive rating and also checked in fourth in terms of pace rating during the exhibition slate. The Pistons on the other hand finished bottom 10 in offensive rating, 27th in defensive rating and a miserable tie for 29th in pace rating. Tough spot for Detroit to open the campaign here. Take Indiana (10*). |
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06-13-19 | Raptors +3 v. Warriors | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 48 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Golden State at 9:07 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors wasted an opportunity to win an NBA title on their home floor on Monday night but I don't expect them to do the same in Oakland on Thursday night. Toronto didn't put forth its best effort but perhaps that was to be expected against a desperate Warriors squad in Game 5. This was never going to be easy and the Raps are fully aware of that. I like the resolve we've seen from Toronto in these playoffs, particularly on the road, and I'm confident we'll see it ultimately prevail in Game 6 on Thursday. It's worth noting that very little went right for the Raps yet they still managed to hold a six-point lead late in the fourth quarter on Monday. Danny Green, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry combined to shoot 1-for-14 from beyond the arc in that game. In fact, the entire team connected on just eight three-pointers. Toronto did hold a considerable edge at the free throw line in that game - something that we'll likely see reverse here in Oakland. With that being said, I look for the Raptors to do a better job of locking down defensively on Klay Thompson, forcing Steph Curry to shoulder most of the load in this one. With Kevin Durant sidelined again, the Warriors come up short here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Toronto at 9:07 pm et on Friday. Everyone is quick to hand this series to the Raptors following their dominant victory in Game 3 in Oakland on Wednesday night. While we did win with the Raptors in that game (and the Warriors in Game 2), I'm not about to consider this series over and done with. The Warriors are a veteran team with a championship pedigree and I fully expect to see them bounce back and deliver their best effort of the series on Friday night. Of course Golden State knows that it needs to get a win here as earning a victory in Toronto in Game 5 will be a tall task. The Warriors got nothing from anyone not named Steph Curry in Game 3, with Shaun Livingston (in place of Klay Thompson) and DeMarcus Cousins really disappointing with a combined 2-for-11 shooting effort. There's a good chance Thompson will be back for this one, but even if he's not, I still expect a lot more from Golden State across the board. The Raptors aren't going to shoot the lights out again, nor do I expect them to convert at such a high rate from the free throw line again (20-of-21 in Game 3). This is a game the Warriors need, and when you consider the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 9-0 against the spread in the Raptors last nine contests, I'll lay the points with Golden State here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +6 v. Warriors | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Golden State at 9:07 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Warriors in Game 2 of this series on Sunday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Raptors as the scene shifts to Oakland on Wednesday. Note that this series is even at three games apiece going back to the start of the 2017-18 season with the underdog going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The Raptors managed to win outright here in Oakland in their lone regular season meeting this year, despite missing Kawhi Leonard. The Warriors had the services of Curry, Thompson and Durant for that one. We're not going to see the Raptors shoot as poorly as they did in Game 2 on Sunday. The Warriors played with a real sense of urgency at the defensive end of the floor in that game. Here, I look for Toronto to respond with a strong defensive effort of its own. Golden State may get Kevin Durant back in the lineup for this one, but I believe that's already been factored into the line. Most are quick to count out the Raptors following Sunday's poor showing. I expect that result to strengthen their resolve heading into Game 3. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Toronto at 8:07 pm et on Sunday. The Raptors jumped ahead early and never looked back in the series opener on Thursday delivering the first blow in what I expect to be a long, back-and-forth series. I don't believe the Warriors will be rattled by that result. Golden State didn't play its best game on Thursday and was ultimately undone by a career night from Pascal Siakam. Look for Steve Kerr to make the necessary adjustments as far as the x's and o's go, particularly from a defensive standpoint. I look for the Warriors to bounce back and even this series up at one game apiece as the series shifts back to Oakland. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Toronto at 9:07 pm et on Thursday. I'll keep it simple in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. The Raptors are going to have an awfully tough time getting back up to the level that saw them rally from a big double-digit deficit in the second half of their series-clinching win against the Bucks last Saturday night. The Warriors have been off for what seems like an eternity now but I don't expect rust to play much of a factor. I'm sure they can't wait to get back on the floor and I actually like the fact that they open the Finals on the road for a change. A date with Kawhi Leonard and the red hot Raptors is not difficult at all to get up for and I think we'll see a complete effort from Golden State here, especially after dropping both regular season meetings with Toronto. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Jumping out to a big early lead might have been part of the gameplan, but it certainly didn't work out in the Bucks favor on Thursday night as they let the Raptors back into the game and then Toronto took full control thanks to an all-world performance from Kawhi Leonard in the fourth quarter. While the Raptors bandwagon has filled up in a hurry, I'm not sure that's the right move from a betting perspective as the scene shifts back to Toronto on Saturday. Yes, the Raptors fan base is extremely hungry to watch their team finally break through and advance to the NBA Finals and the place will most definitely be 'rocking' on Saturday night. That doesn't guarantee a win, however. The Bucks clearly felt the pressure once things tightened up in Game 5 and I expect the same thing to happen to the Raptors with the weight of seemingly the entire city on their shoulders on Saturday. Going into this series I would have been shocked if you told me that the Bucks wouldn't win a game in Toronto. This is a team that has proven it can win on this floor this season, and one that has proven it can rise to the occasion in hostile environments. This had the feel of a series that was going to go the distance after Game 4 but that sentiment has changed with the Raptors stealing Game 5 on the road. Keep in mind, the Bucks were favored in the last game played on this floor. I'll grab the points with Milwaukee as its season hangs in the balance. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | 105-99 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. This is the simple call in Game 5 of this series as the straight-up winner has covered the spread in all of the Bucks playoff games to date and I'm quite confident we'll see Milwaukee bounce back in a big way back at home following a really poor performance in Game 4. The Raptors did what they had to do to even this series up and put some pressure on the Bucks but I'm not sure it's sustainable. Kawhi Leonard has done it all for the Raptors but wasn't called on quite as much in Game 4. He'll be the focal point again in Game 5 but I look for the Bucks to make the necessary adjustments to minimize his impact (as much as possible). I also think we'll see the Milwaukee offense shake loose after getting frustrated by the Raptors defense in Toronto. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -2 v. Raptors | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Toronto at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. This is going to be a popular play on Tuesday but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. I actually don't believe this game is going to be close. The Bucks turned in a pretty awful performance on Sunday night, yet they still managed to push the Raptors to double-overtime and it took a superhuman effort from Kawhi Leonard to earn Toronto the win. Here, I expect to see the Bucks to get off to a much stronger start, and stay composed for four quarters, unlike we saw on Sunday. The Raptors were in a must-win position in Game 3 and while they still desperately need to even this series before the scene shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 5, I'm not sure how much more they have in the tank. Note that the Bucks have played exceptionally well on the road this season, going 31-15. The straight-up winner has covered the spread in all 12 Bucks playoff games to date and I expect that to hold true with Milwaukee winning here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks got off to a slow start and fell in blowout fashion in their series opener against the Celtics last round but I expect a different story to unfold here as they host the Raptors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Toronto is just two days removed from a thrilling seventh game victory over Philadelphia. The Raps didn’t exactly look like road warriors in that series against the 76ers and now they’ll face an even tougher challenge against a Bucks squad that can really get out and run at home. While I do believe this will be a competitive series and that the Raptors are capable of winning a game on this floor, I just don’t think this is the spot. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-12-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Sunday. Travel day on Sunday. Full writeups will return on Monday. The Raptors rarely make things easy on themselves in the playoffs and I expect nothing different here. We won with the 76ers in Game 6 on Thursday night and here I simply believe they’re being given too big of a cushion from the oddsmakers. Look for a competitive affair for four quarters. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. The books have certainly adjusted the point spread accordingly with Kevin Durant ruled put for the Warriors but that won’t keep me from backing the Rockets once again here. We won with Houston in Game 5 as the Rockets just snuck inside the number. This time around I’m anticipating a more lopsided affair in favor of the home side. I’m just not sure we’ll see Golden State get much more than the 52 combined points it got from Steph Curry and Klay Thompson in Game 5. Knowing that they have Game 7 at home on deck i’m just not sure the desperation will be there for the Warriors. The intimidation factor really does scale back with Durant sidelined. Look for Houston to win this one going away. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | 101-112 | Win | 101 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We’ve been on point over the last two games of this series cashing with the Raptors in Game 4 and the over in Game 5. I’ll go with the 76ers in Game 6 on Thursday night as I fully expect to see them turn in their best effort of the series with their backs against the wall. This has had the look of a seven-game series all the way and while the Raptors certainly came up big with a blowout win last time out that was a pretty desperate spot for them as while the series was tied they simply couldn’t afford to go down 3-2 heading to Philadelphia. Expect the 76ers to play with that desperation On Thursday. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-08-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I do believe the Rockets are capable of winning a game here in Oakland in this series and having evened things up at two games apiece, Wednesday could be their night. I'm really not sure the Warriors are going to perform much better offensively after getting 64 points from Steph Curry and Kevin Durant in a four-point loss in Game 4. Sure, they can get more from Klay Thompson but I do expect to see Houston do a good job once again of limiting the Warriors ability to get out and run and generate open looks. Keep in mind, the Rockets won twice on this floor during the regular season. I'll grab all the points I can get with Houston in this pivotal Game 5. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-05-19 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Philadelphia at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. Everyone has seemingly left the Raptors for dead after dropping back-to-back games to go down 2-1 in this series, with their Game 3 loss coming in particularly uninspiring fashion. I do expect to see Toronto bounce back on Sunday afternoon, however. Kyle Lowry in particular is in desperate need of a response following a complete no-show in Game 3 and I'm confident we'll see him come up big in his hometown. The Raptors are expected to be without Pascal Siakam for this one, which is certainly key, but that's already been factored into this line. I look for Toronto to do a much better of job of turning this into a slugfest. It was essentially a one-man team with Kawhi Leonard doing all of the heavy lifting in Game 3, but even with little to no support from his teammates, the Raps were still within striking distance heading into the fourth quarter. Expect a better all-around performance here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Houston at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. This could still turn out to be a long series but I believe the Rockets are simply laying too many points on Saturday night. The first two games certainly could have gone either way with Golden State winning by four and six points. The Rockets are now actually 4-2 ATS against the Warriors this season. Golden State ranks first in offensive rating in the playoffs and while the Rockets have been tough defensively here at home, and will undoubtedly bring their best effort on Saturday night, I have to go with the value being offered to back the superior squad. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Celtics are giving all the respect in the world to the Bucks, and rightfully so after Milwaukee answered back following an embarrassing series-opening loss at home. Here, I look for Boston to be the team to bounce back after a beatdown in Game 2. The Bucks have been the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference this season but there's no question the Celtics are going to be a tough out. I like the spot here as there's really not a great deal of pressure on Boston after it earned a split in Milwaukee. It would have been a different story if the C's were returning home in an 0-2 hole, but instead they're very much in the series, and I'm confident we'll see them play loose and take the play to the Bucks on Friday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-02-19 | Raptors -1 v. 76ers | 95-116 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors are coming off arguably their worst performance of the playoffs to date in Game 2 of this series as they came out with no energy and were never able to recover as the 76ers evened the series up at one game apiece. Despite getting outrebounded 52-36 and spotting the 76ers 26 free throws compared to their own 15, the Raps still only lost by five points. Toronto actually managed to outscored Philadelphia in terms of both points in the paint (44-38) and on the fast break (18-13). It was really Toronto's usually reliable bench that let it down in Game 2. The Raps were actually + points with all five of their starters on the floor but outscored badly with their bench in the game. Toronto has been a quality road team all season and I don't believe there will be any sort of intimidation factor at play here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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04-27-19 | Spurs +6 v. Nuggets | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Denver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Spurs as they try to close out the Nuggets on Saturday night in Denver. I'm not sure we're going to see Denver improve much on its 103-point performance in Game 5. Yes, the Nuggets shot poorly from beyond the arc, but I am confident the Spurs can replicate their defensive performance here. This entire series has really been played at the Spurs preferred pace. So far in the playoffs, these two teams rank in the bottom two in terms of pace rating. The two teams have basically been mirror images of one another as far as both offensive and defensive ratings go. The favorite has covered in back-to-back games entering this one, but I look for that trend to reverse on Saturday. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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04-26-19 | Warriors -9.5 v. Clippers | 129-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have had the edge in this series from a betting perspective, going 3-2 ATS through the first five games and we've been on board with them for two of those victories. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears, however, as the Warriors certainly have that extra gear they can go to, and I'm certain they don't want to drag this series out any longer than it already has. The pressure is certainly on for Golden State to finish things off here after watching the Rockets take care of the Jazz and earn some welcome rest. The Clippers are deserving of a lot of credit for giving the Warriors all they handle but I don't think we'll see Golden State settle into the sort of lull it has displayed for stretches in Games 2 and 5. Take Golden State (10*). |
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04-24-19 | Jazz v. Rockets -8 | 93-100 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Jazz in their outright victory to stave off elimination on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the points with the Rockets as they return home looking to close out Utah on Wednesday night. It was an off game for the Rockets to be sure, as they shot the ball poorly from all over the floor. Meanwhile, the Jazz turned in what was their most complete performance of the series to date, which was not surprising given the circumstances. With no interest in getting stretched out any further in this series, look for the Rockets to deliver the knockout blow on Wednesday night at home. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Houston at 10:35 pm et on Monday. After the Jazz were favored in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night, the line has flipped in advance of Game 4 - not surprising given the Rockets can deliver the knockout blow to Utah on Monday night in Salt Lake City. I don't expect the Jazz to go down without a fight, however, and will grab all the points I can get with them as they make their last stand on Monday. The Rockets have now won five straight meetings in this series but the Jazz do have two wins to their credit over Houston this season. There were certainly positives to take away from Saturday's loss, the least of which being the fact that Utah was in the game right down to the final whistle, actually leading but as many as eight points, and carrying a two-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Jazz won't shoot as poorly from the three-point line as they did in Game 3 (12-of-41). Look for that to be a difference-maker in this one. Take Utah (10*). |
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04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9.5 | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Clippers in Game 2 of this series but stayed away in Game 3 as the Warriors bounced back in a big way. Golden State is still one of the worst bets in the NBA and I won't hesitate to fade it again as it looks to grab a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. Los Angeles couldn't have played any worse in Game 3 as it shot just 37% from the field including 22% from beyond the arc. That wasn't unexpected as the Clips suffered a major hangover after that huge 31-point rally in Game 2. Here, I look for L.A. to get off to a better start and hang with the Warriors for four quarters. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-20-19 | 76ers v. Nets +2 | 112-108 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Philadelphia at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Nets to bounce back after dropping consecutive games to fall behind in this series. The 76ers were without Joel Embiid on Friday night but still managed to breeze past the Nets. It wasn't a focused or nearly desperate enough effort from the underdog Nets, but I expect to see them show a lot more pride and determination in what could amount to their last stand at home on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, the 76ers are a losing bet overall and just a .500 team on the road this season. The Nets come in off back-to-back ATS losses, but haven't dropped three in a row ATS since February 27th to March 2nd. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5 | 98-93 | Push | 0 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The oddsmakers are calling for a competitive affair between the Raptors and Magic on Friday night, and I'll side with them in this spot as Orlando should bounce back following a dreadful performance in Game 2. Despite the Raptors rout on Tuesday night at home, these two teams have split their six matchups this season. I don't believe the Magic will roll over and die with the series tied at one game apiece. Toronto is obviously the superior team, but Orlando has been the far better bet, going 46-37-1 ATS to date compared to the Raps 39-45 ATS mark. Take Orlando (10*). |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Spurs | 108-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I think we'll see the Nuggets play with some desperation in this game, even though they evened up the series in Game 2. The last game certainly could have gone either way with Denver rallying big in the fourth quarter to not only win but cover the spread. Much will be made of the fact that the Spurs have won 13 straight games at home against the Nuggets but I really don't believe the players will pay any mind to that. Note that Denver fell just one point short (and covered the spread) the last time it played here in San Antonio back in early March. The spread was considerably shorter in that game than the number we're dealing with here. Take Denver (10*). |
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04-17-19 | Jazz +7 v. Rockets | Top | 98-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Houston at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. After watching the Warriors stunning collapse in Game 2 of their matchup with the Clippers on Sunday night many have come to the conclusion that they're ripe for the picking in these playoffs, and that same majority also believes that the Rockets will be the team to ultimately dethrone the perennial champs. That's a narrative I believe is in play here with most forgetting that the Rockets still have some work to do before that, even if the opener of this series was no contest. I'm confident we'll see Utah bounce back with a much better effort on Wednesday night in Houston. This isn't a Jazz squad that rolled over at the end of the regular season. Utah entered the playoffs with some positive vibes and having split four regular season matchups with the Rockets, including a win here on this floor, I don't believe they'll be intimidated by the 0-1 hole, or the fact that they dropped Game 1 in blowout fashion. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Jazz here. Take Utah (10*). |
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04-16-19 | Thunder +2 v. Blazers | 94-114 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers prevailed in a hard-fought series opener on Sunday but I fully expect to see the Thunder answer back and steal home court advantage with a victory on Tuesday night. There's no intimidation factor at play here as the Thunder have already won two games on this floor since the start of 2019. And there's no reason for Oklahoma City to be rattled after Game 1. After all, the Thunder aren't likely to shoot as poorly from the three-point line again (5-for-33 in Game 1). There were plenty of positives for the Thunder to take away from that loss as they outrebounded the Blazers, nearly doubled them in fast break points and also had a 14-point edge in the paint. This has all the makings of a long, back-and-forth series. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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04-15-19 | Clippers +13.5 v. Warriors | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 10:30 pm et on Monday. The Warriors put together an outstanding performance in Game 1 of this series on Saturday but I believe it's going to be tough for them to repeat that effort against what will obviously be a highly-motivated Clippers squad on Monday night. A lot of the same reasoning from Saturday's play still applies here. It's not as if the Clips were completely outclassed for four quarters on Saturday, they know they can hang with the Warriors, just as they did in an extremely close two-point game right here on this floor back in December (the Clips also defeated the Warriors at home back in November). Despite their blowout win in Game 1, the Warriors are still a losing bet on the season by a considerable margin. Look for the Clips to hang tough(er) here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-13-19 | Clippers +13 v. Warriors | Top | 104-121 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Clippers got steamrolled by the Warriors in a spot where many expected them to compete less than a week ago and now we’re dealing with an inflated pointspread as a result. Keep in mind, that was a competitive game until halftime, before the wheels came off for the Clips and the Warriors put up a 42-spot in the third quarter. From a high-level perspective, I don’t think a Western Conference title is going to come quite as easy for the Warriors as it has in years’ past. We’ve certainly seen chinks in the Dubs’ armor over the course of the season and to put it simply, they’ve been one of the worst ATS bets in the entire league. Conversely, few expected much out of the Clippers this season and while they stumbled down the stretch, there’s no question it has been a successful campaign, and I fully expect to see them play with a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality here in the opening round. I won’t call for an outright victory in Saturday’s series-opener, but I do look for the Clips to give the Warriors all they can handle in Oakland. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-13-19 | Magic v. Raptors -8.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Orlando at 5 pm et on Saturday. The Magic have had to scratch and claw their way for the better part of the last three months to just get into the NBA Playoffs and what do they earn for their troubles? A date with the second-ranked Raptors, a team that is not only supremely talented, but also highly-motivated to make this ‘the year’ that they finally get over the hump and win the Eastern Conference. I liked the way the Raptors didn’t ease off the gas pedal down the stretch, winning seven of their last eight games, including a 20-point rout of Minnesota on the second-last night of the regular season. During that stretch was also a 12-point win over these same Magic, a team that had gotten the better of them here in Toronto in late February (we won with the Magic as a big underdog in a 15-point outright win). The Raptors know that nothing is going to be handed to them, especially against a real tough-out of a first round opponent. With that being said, we’re dealing with a single-digit pointspread here, unlike the openers for the Bucks and Warriors, two other teams that I would certainly put the Raptors near or in the same class as. Much has been made of the Raptors brutal track record both SU and ATS in playoff openers, but I believe we see a different story unfold this year. Take Toronto (10*). |
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04-09-19 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -10 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Memphis at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Pistons on Tuesday night. Detroit is reeling right now, on the heels of four straight losses. Keep in mind, it has faced a tough schedule, with a home-and-home with the Pacers followed by a trip to Oklahoma City and a home game against Charlotte. Here, the Pistons catch a break hosting a beat up Grizzlies squad that is simply playing out the string, and fresh off an overtime loss to Dallas two nights ago. Despite dropping four straight games, the Pistons still rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating over their last five contests. The Grizzlies on the other hand sit in the bottom-third of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over that same stretch. We're laying a generous helping of points here, but I believe the number is warranted. Take Detroit (10*). |
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04-07-19 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Kings | 133-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Sacramento at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Pelicans as they travel to Sacramento to face the Kings on Sunday. New Orleans has now lost three games in a row but did manage to push Phoenix to overtime last time out. The Pelicans last victory actually came against these same Kings on March 28th. Sacramento has stumbled down the stretch, dropping four of its last six games, with three of those losses coming by double-digits. The Pelicans rank 12th in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. There's not a lot separating these two squads over that stretch in terms of defensive rating or pace rating. This has been a competitive series this season, with the Pelicans taking two of three meetings. The lone game the Kings did win over New Orleans came by just five points. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-06-19 | 76ers -9.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls are coming off a rare victory last time out, a narrow one-point win over the lowly Wizards. That was their first win in six games so there's no reason to start planning the parade. The 76ers have dropped three games in a row, both SU and ATS. I really feel Philadelphia can run Chicago right of of the gym tonight, noting that despite its recent struggles to find the win column, Philly ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five contests. The Sixers are also in the top half of the league in offensive rating over that stretch while the Bulls check in a miserable 28th. Both teams are banged up but Philadelphia is in better position to come up with a complete effort here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-05-19 | Spurs v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 129-112 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This may look like a gimme for the Spurs to 'get right' following an uneven stretch, but I believe they're in for a battle with the Wizards. San Antonio has won just three times in its last eight games and only one of those SU wins came ATS as well. Meanwhile, the Wizards returned home from what should be considered a successful 2-2 road trip only to lose to the Bulls (by a single point). They still check in 3-1 ATS over their last four contests. Over their last five games, the Wiz rank seventh in the league in pace rating. They're just 20th in offensive rating over that same stretch, but keep in mind that's only one spot behind the Spurs. In terms of defensive rating, Washington is right around the middle of the league (at 16th) over its last five games while San Antonio sits 24th. The Wiz hung 119 points on the Spurs back in January, but still lost. Expect a competitive affair here. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-03-19 | Knicks v. Magic -12 | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Magic continue to exceed expectations at every turn and while they are coming off a double-digit loss in Toronto on Monday, I look for them to bounce back against the lowly Knicks on Wednesday night. Orlando checks in just outside the top 10 in the league in offensive rating over its last five games and should feast on a non-existent Knicks defense here. While the Magic's defense has lagged a bit of late, it's important to note that they're coming off a four-game road trip that closed with matchups against the Pistons, Pacers and Raptors. The Knicks are coming off a rare win on Monday night against the Bulls, but they should be right back into 'tank mode' on Wednesday night. There's really no benefit in winning these games down the stretch and it has showed with New York dropping six straight prior to Monday's victory. The Knicks did take the most recent meeting in this series, but prior to that it was three straight blowout wins for the Magic. Take Orlando (10*). |
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04-01-19 | Cavs v. Suns -2 | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Cleveland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We cashed yet another ticket fading the Suns on Saturday night against Memphis but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back them as they host the lowly Cavs on Monday night. The Suns have certainly gone in the tank lately, but so have the Cavs. It's been over two weeks since Phoenix last won a game but it's worth noting it has played only six games since, and it hasn't faced the easiest of schedules. The Cavs enter riding a five-game losing streak and save for a six-point loss in San Antonio, haven't really been close in their last four contests. Tonight's game will mark their fourth game in the last seven nights, in a fourth different city. I'll lay the short number with the Suns as they finally notch a win on this homestand. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-31-19 | Grizzlies +9 v. Clippers | 96-113 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Grizzlies in Phoenix last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as they head to Los Angeles to face the Clippers. Memphis certainly hasn't quite on the season, as evidenced by its even 3-3 record over its last six games. The Grizzlies have gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. The Clippers are fresh off a blowout win here at home, but that came against the lowly Cavs. Their previous three home wins came by seven points or less. This has been a tightly-contested series with six of the last seven meetings decided by single digits, with the only double-digit margin coming by way of a 10-point Memphis victory earlier this season. Take Memphis (10*). |
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03-30-19 | Grizzlies -1.5 v. Suns | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns have gone in the 'tank' so to speak over the last couple of weeks. Their lone win over their last eight games came in a wild overtime game that was essentially handed to them in New Orleans two weeks ago (we won with Phoenix on that night). The Grizzlies have faced a pretty tough recent schedule but have managed to go 3-2 ATS over their last five contests. Note that they rank ahead of the Suns in terms of both offensive and defensive rating over that stretch. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries. I simply feel the Grizzlies are in better position to battle through on Saturday night. Take Memphis (10*). |
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03-29-19 | Wizards v. Jazz -12 | 124-128 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Washington at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are really rounding into form with the playoffs quickly approaching, winners of eight of their last nine games overall, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Over their last five games, the Jazz rank in a tie for eighth in the league in pace rating, second in offensive rating and third in defensive rating. It doesn't get much better than that. Meanwhile, the Wizards are, or at least should be in tank mode. They're coming off a win over the lowly Suns in Phoenix, but that was just their first victory in their last six contests. Over their last five games, the Wiz rank 19th in pace rating, a reasonable 12th in offensive rating but 27th in defensive rating. I don't believe they can stay within arm's reach of the rolling Jazz on Friday night. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-28-19 | Raptors -11.5 v. Knicks | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors have certainly been playing an uneven brand of basketball lately and enter this contest on a three-game ATS losing streak. With that being said, I believe this is a blowout in the making, much like back on March 18th when the Raps rolled past the Knicks by 36 points. Despite their lack of recent success, the Raps check in ranked sixth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. Offensively, it's a similar story as they rank seventh in the NBA over that same stretch. By contrast, the Knicks are where you would expect them to be in terms of defensive rating, pulling up the rear in 30th spot over their last five contests. Their offensive rating hasn't been quite as bad, but they still check in 21st. If there's an opponent the Raptors are comfortable playing against when they're back on their heels a bit, it's the Knicks, as they've gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Take Toronto (10*). |
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03-27-19 | Blazers -7 v. Bulls | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't like the spot for the Bulls here as they return home off a reasonably close loss in Toronto last night. Chicago is in full-on tank mode as far as I'm concerned. They do have a couple of recent wins but one of those came by way of overtime against the lowly Wizards and the other came against one of the league's worst teams in the Suns (we won with the Bulls in that game). Portland is undermanned to be sure with C.J. McCollum already sidelined and now Josef Nurkic out of action as well. Seth Curry and Enes Kanter will be looked upon to pick up the slack with the former already having done so over the last several games. I expect to see the Blazers take care of business here, noting they rank fourth in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Bulls are 29th in that category over that stretch. Take Portland (10*). |
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03-26-19 | Hawks +1.5 v. Pelicans | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans are in full-on tank mode right now (whether by choice or not), the Hawks have actually shown some fight, and enter this game off back-to-back wins over two quality opponents in the Jazz and 76ers. In fact, Atlanta has been one of the best bets in the entire league in recent weeks, going 12-4 ATS over its last 16 games. It's also worth noting that the Hawks rank first in the league in pace rating over their last five games. While their offensive rating leaves something to be desired, I do think they can take advantage of a Pelicans squad that has been even worse in that regard, ranking 21st in the league in defensive rating over their last five contests. The Hawks are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the Pelicans since the start of 2017. While it's never comfortable backing a team that sits 15 games under .500 on the road, I believe a play is warranted here. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-25-19 | Nets +6.5 v. Blazers | 144-148 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Nets, who will be shooting their third straight win on Monday night in Portland. Despite allowing 118 and 112 points in their last two games, both victories, the Nets still check in top 10 in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. They catch the Blazers in a favorable spot here. Brooklyn is coming off two days of rest while Portland escaped with a narrow five-point win over Detroit on Saturday and will have an eye on a four-game road trip that begins on Wednesday night in Chicago. While the Blazers have won six of their last seven games it's worth noting that four of those victories came by single-digit margins. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -6 | Top | 105-111 | Push | 0 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston minus the points over San Antonio at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the Spurs having won nine of their last 10 games overall this one will be pegged as a showdown between two of the West's best teams on Friday night. Keep in mind, San Antonio has played eight of its last 10 contests at home. The Spurs are just 13-22 on the road this season, where they rank a miserable 28th in the league in defensive rating. The Rockets are coming off a tough overtime loss in Memphis two nights ago, but had gone a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS over their previous three games. This hasn't been a favorable matchup for the Spurs in Houston, with the Rockets winning their last three meetings on this floor by 15, 16 and 7 points. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-21-19 | Pistons v. Suns +7.5 | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Detroit at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Suns on Thursday night. Save for a win over the Raptors on Sunday, the Pistons have been struggling lately. They check in last in the league in pace rating over their last five games while also sitting a miserable 29th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating over that stretch. The Suns continue to force the issue, ranking fifth in pace rating and I believe they can give some headaches in this one. While Phoenix is by no means known for its defensive prowess, it does sit a reasonable 15th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. We've actually cashed tickets in each of the Suns last two games, winning with them in New Orleans on Saturday before fading them against the Bulls at home on Monday. Look for a solid bounce-back effort against a Pistons squad that is having a tough time on the road. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-20-19 | Celtics +3 v. 76ers | 115-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. There's no question the Celtics have had the 76ers number this season and can earn a sweep of the season series with a victory on Wednesday night. The 76ers are playing excellent basketball having not lost since March 8th against Houston but I look for the C's to get the better of them once again. Boston will be highly-motivated for this game coming off a nine-point home loss to the Nuggets on Monday. Prior to that, the Celtics had been playing well, winners of five of their previous six contests. That all got started with a resounding 128-95 win over the Warriors in Oakland back on March 5th. I see this as a similar motivational spot against the rival 76ers. No surprise at all if this isn't the last meeting between these two teams this season. For now I'll give the Celtics the edge in an underdog role. Take Boston (10*). |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -4 | 123-121 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Kings in a rout of the Bulls on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Sacramento hosts Brooklyn. The Nets have gone 0-3 on their current road trip, albeit against some tough opposition. While Brooklyn is coming off an ATS cover against the Clippers, it's worth noting that it hasn't notched back-to-back ATS wins since February 23rd and 25th. The Kings enter this game ranked tied for third in the NBA in pace rating over their last five games. While the Nets aren't far behind sitting seventh, the Kings have been making more of their opportunities, ranking 14th in offensive rating over that same stretch while the Nets rank 28th. Brooklyn sits well ahead of Sacramento in defensive rating but that's largely due to an outlier against the Pistons in which it gave up just 75 points last week. The Nets took the first meeting in this series this season by a whopping 29 points but the Kings had won consecutive meetings prior to that. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-18-19 | Bulls +3 v. Suns | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Suns on Saturday as they were essentially handed the game by the Pelicans in the closing seconds. We also cashed a ticket fading the Bulls on Sunday as they were crushed by the Kings in Sacramento. With that being said, I'm confident backing Chicago plus the points on Monday night as it aims to bounce back in Phoenix. The Suns are rolling along right now ATS but this marks the first time they've been favored in a game since March 6th against the Knicks. Keep in mind, they're just 10-24 SU at home this season. The Bulls have actually been slightly better on the road than at home, notching 11 victories as visitors. I'll also point out that Chicago took the lone previous meeting in this series this season by eight points back in November. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-17-19 | Bulls v. Kings -6.5 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Chicago at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Kings in this spot. Sacramento has been reeling lately but has also faced a pretty brutal schedule. While I don't generally like to back teams returning home off a road trip on the opposite coast, I do believe we'll see the Kings bounce back here. Note that Sacramento ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five games and should be able to punish an awful Bulls defense on Sunday. Chicago checks in 29th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. The Bulls are coming off a relatively close seven-point loss against the Clippers but that was only thanks to L.A. taking its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter (it was an 18-point game entering the fourth). Chicago is just 2-5 ATS over its last seven games. The Kings have lost four of their last five SU but have still managed to go 3-1-1 ATS over that stretch. Also note that the Kings took the first meeting in this series this season by 19 points back in December. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-16-19 | Suns +2.5 v. Pelicans | 138-136 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over New Orleans at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Pelicans are really struggling right now, losers of five games in a row and allowing 120+ points in each of their last four contests. They've had their way with the Suns in recent years but I don't feel that holds much bearing here. Phoenix suffered a narrow six-point loss in Houston last night. Keep in mind, they won on the road against the Warriors last Sunday. The Suns certainly don't appear to be a team that's tanking right now, having gone 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS over their last nine games. The Pelicans should have Anthony Davis back tonight but are still missing Jrue Holliday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-15-19 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Miami at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Bucks on Friday night in Miami. We won with Milwaukee last time out as it shook out of a mini-slump with a blowout win in New Orleans. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Despite its recent struggles to find the win column, Milwaukee checks in third in offensive rating and first in defensive rating over its last five games. The Heat, on the other hand, sit 23rd and eighth in those two categories, respectively over that same stretch. Miami has actually been winning with some consistency, notching five victories in its last six games. However, when it last stepped up in class against the Raptors last Sunday, it lost by 21 points. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-14-19 | Cavs +8 v. Magic | Top | 91-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic were one of the hottest teams in the league a short time ago, but that certainly isn't the case now as they limp into this game losers of back-to-back and four of their last five games overall. Their lone victory over that stretch came by five points at home against the Mavs. Cleveland has shown signs of life lately, including an upset win over the Raptors on Monday night. The Cavs have been pushing the pace a little more lately, ranking 18th in the league in pace rating over their last five games. That's a marked improvement as they had been pulling up the rear in that department a couple of weeks ago. The Magic currently rank 27th in pace rating over that same stretch. The Cavs also sit in the top half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over those last five contests. By contrast, the Magic are 29th and 18th, respectively. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Cavs here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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03-13-19 | Jazz -7.5 v. Suns | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These teams appear to be heading in opposite directions and we've actually cashed with the Suns in each of their last two games including Sunday's stunning outright win at Golden State. However, I believe it's time to jump ship here as Phoenix returns home to host what will be a highly-motivated Jazz squad. Needless to say, this is a big letdown spot for the Suns. This is still a team that owns just 16 wins and a losing ATS record this season. The Jazz have dropped back-to-back games since a win and cover in New Orleans last week (we won with Utah in that game). Keep in mind, those two setbacks came against a surging Grizzlies squad and the Thunder. Utah should settle back in here against an opponent it defeated by 28 points in their lone previous meeting this season. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-12-19 | Blazers v. Clippers +2.5 | 125-104 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers are rolling right now, winners of five games in a row to strengthen their playoff positioning in the Western Conference. Just last night they put up 140 points in a rout of the Celtics. I look for them to keep it going on Tuesday night against the Blazers. Portland has been playing well also but we cashed a ticket fading them against the lowly Suns last time out and that makes it there ATS losses in a row following a seven-game ATS winning streak. The Clippers rank second in the league in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating over their last five games. The Blazers aren't far behind at fifth in the league in offensive rating over that stretch but leave a lot to be desired defensively, ranking 23rd. This has been a tightly-contested series with three previous meetings decided by a total of 18 points this season. Look for the Clips to even up the season series here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-12-19 | Bucks -9 v. Pelicans | 130-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Bucks as they aim to bounce back from a loss in San Antonio on Sunday. The Pelicans lead the league in pace rating over their last five games but I think that works against them in this matchup. The Bucks can run with the best of them and rank eighth in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. While the Pelicans find themselves in the bottom-third of the league in defensive rating over that stretch, the Bucks sit 16th. After a bit of a surge, the wheels have come off for the Pelicans over their last few games and I look for continuation of that here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-11-19 | Raptors -9.5 v. Cavs | 101-126 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Fresh off a blowout win in Miami yesterday I look for the Raptors to keep rolling against another inferior opponent in Cleveland on Monday night. Toronto is rounding into form at the defensive end of the floor, just as we expected they would after acquiring Marc Gasol at the trade deadline. The Raps check in eighth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games, and actually sit an identical eighth in offensive rating as well. The Cavs have held their own lately at the offensive end of the floor, ranking 10th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. I just don't see them having a great deal of success against the Raptors in that regard tonight, and it's certainly worth noting that Cleveland ranks 29th in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. With Kawhi Leonard likely back in the lineup for the Raps, I'll lay the points here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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03-10-19 | Suns +17 v. Warriors | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Suns last night in Portland and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Phoenix goes on to face the Warriors in Oakland on Sunday night. The Suns now rank an impressive fourth in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They also find themselves in the top half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over that same stretch. The Warriors continue to push the tempo, ranking second in pace rating over their last five games but they haven't made the most of it, sitting 23rd in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating over that time frame. Shooting for a fifth straight ATS win, I'll back the Suns here. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-10-19 | Rockets -8 v. Mavs | 94-93 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Rockets as they aim to continue their surge in Dallas on Sunday night. Houston has won seven games in a row SU and three straight ATS heading into this one. The Rockets rank fourth in the league in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating over their last five contests. By contrast, the Mavs have hit a wall. They check in 29th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating over their last five games. Houston has dropped two of three meetings against Dallas this season but in their lone matchup since the start of 2019 the Rockets prevailed by 16 points. Despite suffering a wrist injury on Friday night, James Harden is expected to play for the Rockets on Sunday night. Even if he doesn't, I still like Houston here. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-09-19 | Suns +12.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this game sets up for the underdog Suns. Phoenix has been playing some of its best basketball of the season, having reeled off three straight wins, albeit with each of those victories coming at home. I do expect the Suns to stay competitive as they hit the road to face the Blazers on Saturday night. Portland has dropped the cash in back-to-back games and has earned just one straight-up victory over its last four contests. It's been 'crazy 8's' for the Suns lately as entering last night's action, they ranked eighth in the league in pace rating, offensive rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Over that same period, Portland finds itself much farther down the pecking order. Notably, the Blazers rank in the bottom half of the league in both pace rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Phoenix is playing with some confidence right now and it should relish the role of spoiler once again on Saturday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-08-19 | Pistons -3.5 v. Bulls | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Pistons have won three games in a row and six of their last seven overall to strengthen their position in the Eastern Conference playoff race. While a letdown could be in order against the lowly Bulls on Friday night, I don't see it happening. Note that Detroit ranks last in the league in pace rating over its last five games but that hasn't really had an adverse effect as the Pistons rank second in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch. They also rank top 10 in defensive rating over that time frame. The Bulls pace has shown signs of lagging lately as they rank in the bottom-third of the league over their last five games in that category. Meanwhile, they've been middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive rating. The Bulls haven't defeated the Pistons since January of last year, dropping all five meetings since. Take Detroit (10*). |
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03-08-19 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Grizzlies as they host the Jazz on Friday night. We won with Utah in its last game, a victory in New Orleans on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to switch gears here, however, as the Grizzlies have quietly been playing some solid basketball lately. Memphis is actually tops in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. Over that same stretch, the Grizz have gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. By contrast, the Jazz have dropped the cash in three of their last five games and haven't exactly had an easy time with the Grizzlies this season, dropping two of three meetings with their lone victory coming by eight points. Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups in this series. Take Memphis (10*). |
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03-08-19 | Raptors v. Pelicans +5 | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Bettors have been quick to jump off the Pelicans with all of the drama surrounding Anthony Davis going back to before the trade deadline in February but the fact is, New Orleans has evolved into a pretty solid bet lately. Note that the Pelicans rank tops in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They're also a solid 12th in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch. Even in defensive rating, where they've struggled for the most part, they rank in the top half of the league over their last five contests. The Raptors limp into this game off back-to-back losses. We've actually cashed tickets fading the Raps in each of their last three SU losses. Toronto is a miserable 1-8 ATS over its last nine contests. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks -10 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are coming off rare back-to-back losses but I fully expect to see them bounce back in a big way in their return home following a long road trip on Thursday night. Milwaukee continues to push the tempo, ranking seventh in the league in pace rating over its last five games. By contrast, the Pacers check in second-last in the league in that same category over the same stretch. And we know the Bucks are more than capable of making the most of that up-tempo style, ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over that time frame as well. The Pacers have held their own in that department as well but I simply expect them to get overwhelmed defensively here. Indiana checks in 26th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. This series hasn't been all that close this season with two of three meetings decided by 16 points or more and the other going the Bucks way by nine. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-06-19 | Jazz -4 v. Pelicans | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Nice bounce-back and quick revenge spot for the Jazz here as they host the Pelicans. New Orleans is on a roll right now, even with Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup and playing very limited minutes. With that being said, I don't see them keeping it rolling as they return home off consecutive games playing in altitude. Note that while the Pelicans rank second in the league in pace rating over their last five games, they're just 15th in offensive rating over that same stretch. Utah holds the edge in both offensive and defensive rating over that five-game sample and the Jazz are obviously the superior all-around team in this matchup, even if things didn't go their way two nights ago. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number in this strong motivational spot for Utah. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-05-19 | Rockets +3.5 v. Raptors | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Raptors in a similar spot at home last week against the Celtics but then went ahead and faded them in Sunday's overtime loss in Detroit. Toronto will have Kawhi Leonard back at its disposal tonight but I'm not sure that will be enough. The Rockets have won five games in a row, scoring at least 115 points in all five contests. Sunday's game wasn't really as close as the final score indicated in Boston as the Rockets let up in the fourth quarter. They won't be afforded that luxury on Tuesday night as the Raptors present a bigger challenge. With that being said, I like catching points with a team playing as well, and with as much confidence as the Rockets. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-05-19 | Bulls +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls as they continue to play well despite most believing they're in 'tank mode'. Chicago has gone 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and has won four games in a row straight-up on the road. While the Bulls rank only 19th in the league in pace rating over their last five games, the Pacers have been far worse, ranking 29th. In terms of offensive rating, the Bulls sit just one spot behind the Pacers over that same stretch, ranking sixth. After a terrific run, the Pacers have now gone 1-3 straight-up and ATS over their last four games. The Bulls have grabbed the cash in three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series and I look for them to hang tough again tonight. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-04-19 | Clippers +4.5 v. Lakers | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers plus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Everything seemed to come unglued for the Lakers on Saturday night in Phoenix and now their chances of reaching the playoffs are all but gone. Meanwhile the Clippers are in the thick of the playoff picture sitting six games over .500 and with only two losses over their last six games, with both of those coming in altitude in Denver and Salt Lake City. Both of these teams are top 10 in pace rating over their last five games, with the Clippers leading the way in a tie for fifth in the league in that department. While the Clips have lagged a bit offensively, not making the most of that pace they've been playing at, they catch a favorable matchup here with the Lakers ranking 25th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Clippers rank an impressive sixth in that category. Not surprisingly, there's no home court advantage to speak of here with both teams calling Staples Center home. In fact, the 'road' team has won four straight meetings in this series. Take the Los Angeles Clippers (10*). |
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03-03-19 | Raptors v. Pistons +4.5 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Toronto at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Pistons on Sunday as they host the Raptors in Auburn Hills. Detroit ranks last in the league in pace rating over its last five games but the slow play has actually been working for it. Note that the Pistons have won eight of their last 10 games overall. They also check in sporting a solid 18-13 home record. Over their last five contests, the Pistons rank second in the league in offensive rating and sit just one spot below the Raptors in defensive rating, ranking 11th. Toronto is certainly rolling along right now, but the Raps have been far from invincible on the road, where they've lost 11 games this season. The Pistons actually took the lone previous matchup in this series this season, delivering a 106-104 win in Toronto back in November. Take Detroit (10*). |
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03-02-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Suns | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a ticket fading the Suns last night as the Pelicans rallied to win by double-digits right here in the desert. There's little reason to expect anything different on Saturday night as the highly-motivated Lakers challenge the lowly Suns off a hard-fought home loss against the Bucks last night. Phoenix has few redeeming qualities. Not only does it have only 12 straight-up victories this season, it has gone just 26-37 ATS. None of the three previous meetings between these two teams this season have been close, with the Lakers winning all three games by double-digits. Note that over their last five games, the Suns check in 25th in the league in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating. They have done a nice job pushing the pace, ranking ninth in pace rating over that time frame, but the Lakers have been even better, ranking fifth in the league. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-01-19 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Suns | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Not all that concerned with the status of Anthony Davis in this one. If he plays, we'll consider it a bonus. The fact is, I expect the Pelicans to roll past the Suns, who are coming off their first win in a long time last time out against Miami. The Suns currently rank 28th in the league in both offensive and defensive rating over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Pelicans appear poised to take advantage, ranking second in the league in pace rating over that same stretch. Coming off a narrow loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles two nights ago, look for the Pelicans to bounce back in the desert on Friday night. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-28-19 | Jazz +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Nuggets are certainly rolling along right now, winners of five games in a row to move to an impressive 42-18 overall this season. I do expect them to face a serious challenge on Thursday night, however, as they host the Jazz. Utah continues to battle for playoff positioning, currently sitting sixth in the Western Conference. The Jazz just wrapped up a perfect 2-0 homestand last night which was much needed after dropping a couple of close ones on the road at Golden State and Oklahoma City. I like the way they've battled and believe they can hang here in Denver, where they lost 103-88 much earlier in the season. I do think they're a different team now and I like the way the spot sets up here as they hit the road for this one-gamer before returning home to host the Bucks on Saturday. Utah's pace of play may handicap it a bit in this particular matchup, but the Jazz have made up for it, ranking second in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-28-19 | Warriors v. Magic +6.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic are coming off a disappointing loss to the Knicks at MSG two nights ago which came on the heels of a stunning upset in blowout fashion in Toronto on Sunday. We won with Orlando in that win over the Raptors, and we also won fading the Warriors in their loss to the Miami Heat last night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Orlando here. Note that the Magic rank second in the league in defensive rating over their last five games while ranking fifth in offensive rating over the same stretch. They're also second in assist-to-turnover ratio over that same period. While the Warriors obviously pose some challenges, I believe the upstart Magic will be up for it. Take Orlando (10*). |
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02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a disheartening loss in Memphis two nights ago, after which Lebron James made some harsh comments regarding teammates that may or may not be 'distracted' by the playoff push. Take from that what you will but I do expect to see the Lakers bounce back as they host Anthony Davis and the Pelicans on Wednesday night. Of course, New Orleans just defeated Los Angeles four days ago, and did so without the services of Davis. We last got involved with the Pelicans last week, fading them in Indiana, where they ultimately lost by 15 points. It's certainly been a tough stretch for the Lakers lately, but they've actually played only one home game since Lebron James returned from injury and the result was a 111-106 win over the Rockets coming out of the All-Star break. I'll lay the points in what is a strong motivational spot for King James and co. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-27-19 | Warriors v. Heat +9 | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Golden State at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat may be struggling on the heels of nine losses in their last 11 games but they did give the Warriors all they could handle in a narrow two-point loss, on the road no less, a little over two weeks ago, and I look for them to hang tough on Wednesday night as well. Miami can ill afford to let its slide continue for much longer as it currently sits in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, a game-and-a-half back of the eighth and final playoff spot. Knowing they have to travel to Houston for another extremely tough matchup tomorrow night, I do think we'll see the Heat's best effort against the Warriors here. Golden State is coming off an 11-point win in Charlotte on Monday but has still failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven contests. Call it a lull, or call it whatever you want, but the fact is the Warriors are an elite team, not an elite bet - in fact, they've been one of the worst bets in the league since the start of last season. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors -4 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won by fading the Raptors on Sunday afternoon as they were in a clear letdown spot at home against the Magic coming off Friday's emotional (close) win at home against Demar Derozan and the Spurs. The Raps lost that game against the seemingly overmatched Magic outright, in blowout fashion no less. Here I’ll switch gears and back Toronto as it hosts a big game against the rival Celtics. There’s not a lot separating these two squads talent-wise even if the standings say otherwise. The Celtics have taken two of the previous three meetings this season. We've actually won with both sides in this matchup this season. The Raps have a rested Kawhi Leonard for this one and I’m confident they’ll be back up for it after Sunday’s no show against Orlando. Expect a competitive game but I'll lay the short number. Take Toronto (10*). |
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02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. On the heels of seven straight wins, the Raptors find themselves in a letdown spot on Sunday afternoon as they host the Magic. Toronto's win over San Antonio on Friday was an emotional one as they hosted Demar DeRozan for the first time since he was dealt for Kawhi Leonard in the offseason. The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and capable of hanging tough here, noting they've split two meetings with the Raptors this season, with their lone loss coming by just two points. Take Orlando (10*). |
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02-23-19 | Blazers v. 76ers -2 | 130-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Portland at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. Too much respect is being given to the Trail Blazers in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. Portland is coming off back-to-back wins, keyed by a blowout win over the mighty Warriors prior to the All-Star break. But the fact is, the Blazers are just 11-15 SU on the road this season. They rank 20th in the league in pace rating over their last five games while the 76ers rank ninth in the same category. While the Blazers do show out well in terms of both offensive and defensive ratings over that same stretch, the 76ers have been even better. This is an awfully early start for a west coast team. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-22-19 | Pelicans v. Pacers -5.5 | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over New Orleans at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I absolutely believe the Pacers can frustrate the Pelicans all night long on Friday as these two teams come out of the All-Star break in much different positions. The Pacers actually rank dead last in the league in terms of pace rating over their last five games. I don't think that's a bad thing as they prepare to face the Pelicans here. Note that Indiana ranks second in the league in defensive rating and top 10 in offensive rating over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Pelicans check in bottom half of the league in both categories over that period. Take Indiana (10*). |
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02-22-19 | Wizards +5.5 v. Hornets | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Wizards in their last game before the break as they hung tough against the Raptors in Toronto. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as they stay on the road to face the Hornets on Friday night. Washington should be comfortable pushing the tempo in this one, noting that the Wizards rank number one in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They're quietly top 12 in the NBA in offensive rating over that same stretch. Their defensive play leaves a lot to be desired, but let's face it, so does the Hornets'. Charlotte ranks just two places ahead of Washington in terms of defensive rating over their last five contests. Take Washington (10*). |
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02-21-19 | Kings +12 v. Warriors | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Kings as they come out of the All-Star break and face the Warriors in Oakland. Sacramento has quietly been pushing the tempo lately, ranking fifth in the league in pace rating over the last five games. Their offensive rating hasn't been great over that stretch but I see this as a fine bounce-back spot against a Golden State squad that ranks 18th in defensive rating over their last five contests. The Kings aren't ones to back down from a challenge. While they've gone winless in three tries against the Warriors this season, those three losses have come by a combined 10 points, including a one-point setback the last time they played here in Oakland. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-14-19 | Thunder -4.5 v. Pelicans | 122-131 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Thunder as they try to stay hot heading into the All-Star break. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has gone an incredible 31-2 in the Thunder's last 33 games overall. In other words, the spread simply hasn't played a factor. I do expect Oklahoma City to outlast the struggling Pelicans here. Note that the Thunder rank second in the NBA in pace rating and sixth in offensive rating over the last five games. They should be able to overwhelm a Pelicans squad that ranks 16th and 26th respectively in the same categories over the same time frame. This has been a relatively tight series with the last four meetings all decided by six points or less. With that being said, we're also dealing with a relatively low pointspread here, especially when you consider the disparity between these two teams in the standings. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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02-13-19 | Wizards +11 v. Raptors | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors may be the vastly superior team in this matchup as far as overall records go but the Wizards are actually just a half-game behind the Raps in terms of ATS marks. Toronto loaded up prior to the trade deadline, acquiring Marc Gasol in a blockbuster deal with Memphis. There's no question it's going to take Gasol some time to get acclimated, however, noting that he has split time with Serge Ibaka, playing off the bench, since joining Toronto. Washington put together back-to-back wins before dropping a nine-point decision in Detroit last time out. That result should have served to shake off most potential Wiz backers leading up to this one. The Raptors do check in having won five games in a row SU, but are just 3-5 ATS over their last eight contests. They rarely blow out the Wizards and I don't see it happening here either. Take Washington (10*). |
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