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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-03-24 | Cavs v. Magic -3.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Cleveland at 7 pm et on Friday. A 104-103 loss in Game 5 of this series in Cleveland should only boost Orlando's confidence as it returns home looking to force a seventh and deciding game in this series. Of course, the home team has dominated this series so far going a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. I say the Magic should have received a confidence boost following a one-point loss in Game 5 as that was progress after they were defeated by 14 and 10 points in the first two games in Cleveland. Orlando has now held six straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time it allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts. Note that the Cavaliers are just 16-27 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 6-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also just 13-17 ATS in their last 30 contests following three straight ATS defeats, as is the case here, including a 4-5 ATS record this season. On the flip side, the Magic are 26-14 ATS in their last 40 games following three straight ATS victories including an 11-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Orlando checks in 30-19 ATS in its last 49 contests as a home favorite including 21-7 ATS this season. Take Orlando (8*). |
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05-02-24 | Knicks +3.5 v. 76ers | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 33 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Philadelphia at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks let the 76ers off the hook in Game 5 of this series on Tuesday. I look for them to finish the job on Thursday, however, as the scene shifts to Philadelphia for Game 6. Note that New York is 5-3 SU in its last game played in the City of Brotherly Love. The Knicks are also 24-19 ATS when coming off an upset loss over the last three seasons including an 8-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. In fact, they're 22-11 ATS when coming off a loss of any kind this season including 9-2 ATS when that defeat came by six points or less, as is the case here. Philadelphia checks in 9-17 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset win on the road including a 2-5 ATS mark this season. The 76ers are a long-term 34-49 ATS when coming off an upset win over a divisional foe including 0-2 ATS in that situation this season. Take New York (8*). |
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05-01-24 | Heat +14.5 v. Celtics | 84-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Celtics are coming off consecutive wins (and covers) in Miami to take over this series and push the Heat to the brink of elimination on Wednesday. It is worth noting that Boston is playing with a rather small margin for error from a pointspread perspective at least as it has gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in all four games in this series and has yet to make good on 40 or more field goals. Miami has of course been awful offensively save for Game 2. Note that the Heat are 14-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons and 4-2 ATS in that situation this season. They're also 31-16 ATS in their last 47 contests when playing with double-revenge including a 7-4 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 101-107 ATS after holding the opposition to 90 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, including an 0-3 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Here, Boston will be looking to secure a third straight ATS victory over Miami but hasn't accomplished that feat over the last 16 meetings in the series. Take Miami (8*). |
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04-30-24 | Pacers v. Bucks +4.5 | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Indiana at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. This series obviously hasn't gone the Bucks way and while it's highly unlikely we see them rally from a 3-1 series deficit, I do think they'll give the Pacers all they can handle in Game 5 on Tuesday. Note that Indiana is just 11-21 ATS in its last 32 games as a road favorite including a 7-8 ATS mark in that situation this season. Indiana is also just 9-11 ATS when coming off three straight games in which it scored 120 or more points this season. The Bucks are a flawless 4-0 ATS as a home underdog this season including a 109-94 Game 1 victory on this floor. They're also a long-term 160-117 ATS when coming off three straight losses including a 2-1 ATS record this season. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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04-29-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -7 | 106-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. The Nuggets weren't able to complete the series sweep in Los Angeles on Saturday but I look for them to bounce back as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5 on Monday. Note that the Lakers are 16-28 ATS in their last 44 games following an upset win including a 6-10 ATS record in that situation this season. They're also 15-18 ATS in their last 33 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-7 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games following a double-digit upset loss including a 6-3 ATS record this season. Take Denver (8*). |
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04-27-24 | Celtics -9 v. Heat | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Heat pulled off the massive upset in Game 2 of this series, riding a hot shooting performance from Tyler Herro to a stunning double-digit victory in Boston. I look for the Celtics to rebound as the series shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Saturday. Note that Boston is 38-26 ATS in its last 64 games following an upset loss including a 9-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Heat are just 11-17 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 1-9 ATS record this season. Take Boston (8*). |
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns -4 | 126-109 | Loss | -109 | 39 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Minnesota at 10:30 pm et on Friday. This spot sets up beautifully for the Suns as they return home down 2-0 against the Timberwolves on Friday. All is not yet lost for Phoenix as it brings confidence to Game 3 knowing it has gone 25-16 on its home floor this season. Minnesota has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven straight-up losses on the road. Also note that the T'Wolves are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games when leading a playoff series and 1-4 ATS this season following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Suns are 35-21 ATS in their last 56 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 12-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 6-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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04-25-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers +1.5 | 112-105 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. Most have already advanced the Nuggets past the Lakers as they head to Los Angeles with a commanding 2-0 series lead. In fact, we're already hearing talk of Denver's impending championship repeat. Usually when that starts happening, the team runs into some trouble and I expect that to be the case with the Nuggets on Thursday. Note that Denver is just 19-23 ATS in its last 42 road games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-8 ATS mark this season. The Nuggets are also 24-42 ATS in their last 66 contests following three straight wins, going 7-15 ATS in that situation this season. The Lakers are 12-10 ATS in their last 22 games following consecutive road losses including a 3-2 ATS mark in that spot this season. They're also 31-20 ATS in their last 51 contests after scoring 105 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here, including an 8-2 ATS record in that situation this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks held serve at home, winning each of the first two games in this series to head to Philadelphia ahead 2-0. I still think the potential is there for this to be a long series and look for the 76ers to bounce back in Game 3. With that being said, it's worth noting that the Knicks have gone 1-17 ATS in their 18 road losses this season. New York is a long-term 39-54 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less including a 3-6 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons and 1-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 62-49 ATS in its last 111 contests as a home favorite including a 21-12 ATS record this season. The 76ers are also 31-23 ATS in their last 54 games following a road loss including a 13-6 ATS mark this season. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-23-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. One record-setting poor shooting quarter effectively sunk the Mavericks in the opener of this series on Sunday. Dallas didn't get off to the start it had hoped for in that contest but still had hope after trailing by 12 points following the first quarter. From there it was a 22-8 second frame in favor of the Clippers and that was essentially that for Game 1. With that being said, the Mavs did show some fight, ultimately making the final score respectable thanks to a hot shooting second half. I do think we'll see them carry over some of the positive momentum from that strong second half in Game 2 on Tuesday. As indicated by the line, the Mavs are still the superior team in this matchup and check in 29-18 ATS in their last 47 games as a road favorite of six points or less including a 15-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Clips are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 2-4 ATS record this season. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-20-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -7 | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Lakers off their play-in victory over the Pelicans earlier this week. The Nuggets are rested and waiting to begin defense of their NBA title and I look for them to come up with a big performance on Saturday. Note that Los Angeles is 61-69 ATS in its last 130 road games including a 19-22 ATS mark this season. The Lakers are also 16-33 ATS in their last 49 contests following consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here, including a 5-10 ATS record in that situation this season. Denver is a long-term 78-68 ATS in its last 146 games played on three or more days' rest including a 10-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Keep in mind the Nuggets are also 21-18 ATS as a home favorite this season. I'm not convinced this will be a quick series but I do anticipate Denver gaining the upper hand in the opener. Take Denver (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Hawks +3 v. Bulls | 116-131 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Chicago at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Bulls enter this game on the heels of three straight ATS victories and they're a long-term loser in that situation having gone 117-143 ATS including an 8-17 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Few will give the Hawks a chance in this game given they're riding a six-game losing streak, however, they're 45-38 ATS in their last 83 contests following six straight defeats. Also note that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series, winning six of those games outright including each of the last four. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans were there in body they certainly weren't in spirit in Sunday's regular season ending 124-108 loss to these same Lakers. I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's 7 vs. 8 play-in tournament matchup. Neither team's back is against the wall, so to speak, in this contest as the one that loses will live to fight another day, against the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup between the Warriors and Kings. The Pelicans have enjoyed a terrific season and prior to Sunday's loss to the Lakers, had reeled off four straight wins - all coming on the road. I certainly anticipate them bouncing back here, noting they've gone 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Lakers are 21-39 ATS in their last 60 contests following consecutive wins including a 9-15 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are 2-0 on their current road trip, successfully bouncing back from a four-game losing streak. They're as locked in defensively as it gets having held three of their last four opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 12 of their last 14 foes to 43 or fewer. The Kings have been playing faster lately but it hasn't translated into offensive success. They've gotten off 99, 94 and 96 field goal attempts over their last three contests but were limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in all three. They're likely to be left with little margin for error in this particular matchup with the Pelicans having held an incredible 14 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Keep in mind Sacramento has connected on 42 or fewer field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. The Pelicans are 28-24 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 10-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 33-47 ATS in their last 80 contests as a home favorite including a 13-21 ATS record this season. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. New Orleans is reeling right now having lost four straight games both SU and ATS. I look for the Pelicans to give the Suns all they can handle on Sunday, however. Note that New Orleans is trending in the right direction offensively having knocked down 42 or more field goals in two of its last three games. It has also held five straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns while coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS have been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. It's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. Note that the Pelicans are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including an 8-3 ATS record in that situation this season. The Suns are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-04-24 | Kings v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Sacramento at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Knicks after suffering a 109-99 setback in Miami two nights ago. New York couldn't get anything going offensively in that loss. Off three straight losses, the Knicks will catch a Kings squad that is probably feeling pretty good about itself following victories over the Jazz and Clippers. That latter win came by 14 points against Los Angeles. Note that Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win by double-digits over a division opponent including a 1-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Kings are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests after allowing 95 points or less in their previous game including a 1-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 7-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 16-10 ATS in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road loss including a 6-2 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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04-03-24 | Cavs v. Suns -5.5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Cleveland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers are coming off a win in Utah last night but haven't strung together consecutive ATS victories since March 11th and 13th. They'll be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat as they challenge a rested Suns squad in Phoenix on Wednesday. Note that the Suns have 6-3 ATS over their last nine games despite facing a pretty tough recent schedule. This homestand will only get tougher with matchups against the Timberwolves, Pelicans and Clippers on deck. Look for Phoenix to make the most of this winnable matchup. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Raptors +15.5 v. Wolves | 85-133 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't shown much life lately and find themselves in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday in Minnesota. With that being said, the Timberwolves are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four contests and will be hard-pressed to cover a spread this lofty given the way they're playing right now. Note that Minnesota has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games and 88 or fewer in seven straight. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time it knocked down more than 42 field goals. The Raptors are actually trending in the right direction offensively after connecting on 47 and 43 field goals in their last two contests. Take Toronto (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Knicks +3 v. Heat | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks enter this contest off consecutive losses with the most recent coming in demoralizing last-second fashion at home against the Thunder on Sunday. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they head to Miami to take on a Heat team that is 'fat and happy' off consecutive victories. I don't trust the Heat in a home favorite role and note that they're just 14-22 ATS here in South Beach this season. For the Knicks, this is a key 'right the ship' game before returning home to face the Kings followed by a difficult four-game road trip. New York checks in 32-25 ATS in its last 57 contests as a road underdog of six points or less including a 9-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take New York (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Bucks v. Wizards +13.5 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are 18-20 on the road this season but they're laying double-digits in Washington on Tuesday. Off a win and cover in Atlanta on Saturday, I'll fade Milwaukee here. The Bucks have been playing with a rather small margin for error on their current three-game road trip, getting off just 78 and 82 field goal attempts in the first two contests. On the flip side, they've allowed three straight opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. That's not a recipe for success from a pointspread perspective when you're laying as many points as they are here. The Wizards have lost three games in a row following a three-game winning streak. Note that they've held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Take Washington (8*). |
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03-27-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. 76ers | 108-107 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. What's wrong with the Clippers? That question has come up countless times after they went 0-2 on their most recent homestand, including a blowout loss against the same 76ers that they'll face on Wednesday. After a red hot run that lasted from early December until early February, the wheels have come off for Los Angeles as it has dropped the cash in 16 of its last 22 games. I do like the revenge spot on Wednesday, however, noting that the Clippers are 26-21 ATS in their last 47 games following an upset loss, as is the case here, including a 7-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests following consecutive home defeats including a 2-0 ATS record in that spot this season. Philadelphia checks in 11-13 ATS in its last 24 games as a home underdog including a 2-5 ATS record in that role this season. The 76ers will be playing on just one day of rest following a four-game western road trip and looking ahead to playing five of their next six games away from home as well. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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03-22-24 | 76ers +8 v. Lakers | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The 76ers offense has struggled but I think they can be brought along for the ride against the Lakers on Friday. Los Angeles has allowed six straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to connect on more than 40 field goals. In fact, the Lakers have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Los Angeles knocked down 52 field goals in its most recent game against Atlanta on Monday. Note that the Lakers are just 1-4 straight-up following a game in which they made good on 50 or more field goals this season. Philadelphia checks in 27-23 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss including a 9-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Los Angeles is 15-17 ATS in its last 32 contests following a double-digit home victory including a 4-6 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Hawks +10 v. Suns | 115-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Phoenix at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are coming off a win and cover last night at home against the 76ers but I expect them to have a tougher time covering the lofty pointspread against a rested Hawks squad on Thursday. The injuries are certainly piling up for Atlanta with Jalen Johnson the latest to go down. With that being said, the Suns have consistently been bringing the opposition along for the ride so to speak, regardless the competition level, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in 26 of their last 30 games. They've allowed their foes to knock down at least 40 field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. While Atlanta hasn't exactly been the picture of consistency at either end of the floor, it does check in having limited eight of its last 12 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Hawks are finding their scoring opportunities, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in three of their last five contests and connecting on 41 or more field goals in three straight games. Despite last night's victory, Phoenix is still just 20-29 ATS in its last 49 games as a home favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 2-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Worse still, the Suns are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 contests following a double-digit home win including a 1-8 ATS showing in that spot this season. While there are numerous fade signs flashing when it comes to the Hawks, they have reeled off four straight wins in this particular series, both SU and ATS including three in outright underdog fashion. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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03-18-24 | Wolves v. Jazz +7.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Timberwolves easily brushed aside the Jazz in the first half of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday. I expect Utah to provide a lot more resistance in Monday's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves have now won back-to-back road games. They're just 29-43 ATS in their last 72 contests following consecutive road wins including a 6-9 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Minnesota is also just 3-9 ATS this season after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Meanwhile, Utah is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog including a 13-7 ATS mark this season. Additionally, the Jazz are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played with triple-revenge, as is the case here. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-17-24 | Hawks +9.5 v. Clippers | 110-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Atlanta has lost three games in a row both SU and ATS including the first two games of its current road trip. I look for the Hawks to put up a fight on Sunday in Los Angeles, however. The Clippers will be hard-pressed to cover spreads like this when they've gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. In stark contrast, the Hawks have hoisted up 87 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. The Clips aren't exactly locked-in defensively right now having allowed four straight opponents knock down more than 40 field goals. Note that the road team has covered the spread in four straight meetings in this series. The underdog has gone 7-5 ATS in the last 12 matchups. Finally, we'll note that Los Angeles is 48-57 ATS in its last 105 contests following a loss including a 10-13 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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03-17-24 | Nuggets v. Mavs +2.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Denver at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade the Nuggets on Sunday as they come in feeling good about themselves off consecutive wins to open their current road trip. Note that Denver is just 24-27 ATS in its last 51 games as a road favorite of six points or less including an 8-10 ATS mark int hat situation this season. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in off a loss in Oklahoma City on Thursday and is 36-27 ATS in its last 63 contests following a road loss including a 7-6 ATS record in that spot this season. The Mavs are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*). |
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03-15-24 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6 | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans got schooled by an injury-depleted Cavaliers squad, on their home floor no less, two nights ago but I look for them to bounce back as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday. Los Angeles took care of business in Chicago last night, winning virtually wire-to-wire over the Bulls to snap a brief two-game skid. Interestingly, they're just 2-4 ATS over their last six games with both of those wins coming against Chicago. The Pelicans are just one game removed from a four-game winning streak and they're one of the league's few healthy teams at this late stage of the regular season. Los Angeles is just 23-29 ATS in its last 52 games against Southwest Division opponents including a 7-8 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 20-12 ATS in its last 32 games following an upset loss including an 8-5 ATS record in that situation this season. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 119-126 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Mavericks here as they hit the road in the second of back-to-backs off a double-digit home win over the Warriors last night and on the heels of four straight victories. While Golden State wasn't able to take advantage last night, Dallas does continue to give up too many scoring opportunities on a nightly basis. The Mavs have allowed five of their last eight opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to take advantage having knocked down 42 or more field goals in four straight and 15 of its last 17 games. The runway is cleared for takeoff for the Thunder here as they're rested having not played a back-to-back since March 3rd and 4th and with this being the finale of a four-game homestand. Note that Dallas is just 33-34 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog including a 10-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 32-18 ATS in its last 50 contests as a home favorite including an 18-9 ATS record this season. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks picked up a much-needed win over the Clippers on Sunday, snapping their brief two-game losing streak to open their current four-game road trip. I look for them to stumble on Tuesday, however, as they head to Sacramento to face the revenge-minded Kings. Sacramento has undoubtedly had this rematch circled on its calendar after dropping a heart-breaking 143-142 decision in Milwaukee on January 14th. The Kings enter this contest off a home loss against the Rockets which marked their second straight ATS defeat. Note that Sacramento is still 17-12 on its home floor this season. The Kings continue to do an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding an incredible 16 of their last 19 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three of their last four to 84 or fewer. Despite the poor showing against Houston last time out, Sacramento has still knocked down 52 or more field goals in two of its last three contests. Milwaukee on the other hand has allowed all three opponents on its current trip to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. In fact, the Clippers hoisted up 104 field goal attempts against the Bucks on Sunday. Note that Milwaukee is a long-term 73-80 ATS when coming off a win including an 18-22 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 contests following an upset loss at home including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Better still, they're 34-12 ATS in their last 46 games following consecutive ATS losses including 9-1 ATS this season. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-11-24 | Suns v. Cavs +6.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Cavs go from being seven-point favorites last night against the Nets to just shy of seven-point underdogs on Monday as they host the Suns in the second of a back-to-back situation. Phoenix dropped a 10-point decision at home against the Celtics on Saturday. While the Suns are expected to welcome Devin Booker back for Monday's game, I'm still not high on their offense noting they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has been playing far too loose defensively, allowing an incredible 17 straight and 23 of its last 25 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts with each of its last six foes getting off at least 94 (one game was aided by overtime against Denver). Cleveland is missing a number of key contributors right now but off last night's embarrassing beatdown at home against Brooklyn I do expect a positive response on Monday. Note that the Cavaliers have held six straight and 16 of their last 19 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Their offense has struggled without Donovan Mitchell but again there should be no shortage of scoring opportunities based on tonight's opponent. The Suns check in a long-term 53-53 ATS when laying between 3.5 and 9.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing, but just 12-19 ATS in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by 15 points or more including a 2-1 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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03-10-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Knicks | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks are coming off a rout of the Magic on Friday while the 76ers had their comeback fall just short in a loss to the Pelicans. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Sunday as it hits the road to face New York. Note that the 76ers have held seven of their last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, they've limited eight of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite the win on Friday, New York has knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Knicks have been inconsistent defensively, allowing two of its last four foes to connect on exactly 44 field goals. The 76ers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played with double-revenge, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Knicks are just 12-25 ATS in their alst 37 games played at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including an 0-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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03-09-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets are coming off a key bounce-back win over the Celtics at home two nights ago. That came on the heels of an overtime loss at home against the Suns two nights earlier. Utah is reeling having lost nine of its last 11 games but has played competitive basketball lately, recording three straight ATS wins entering Saturday's contest. On a positive note, the Jazz have held seven straight opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. That may not seem like much of an accomplishment but given how they had been playing previously it's a step in the right direction. They're missing some key contributors offensively but have managed to knock down 42, 49 and 44 field goals over their last three games and should get Keyonte George back from a one-game absence on Saturday. I don't think Denver is well-positioned to cover too many big spreads like this given it has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in three of its last four and seven of its last 11 contests. Note that the Jazz are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss but ATS victory, as is the case here, including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah is also 19-15 ATS in its last 34 contests following three straight ATS wins, including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Denver is a middling 15-16 ATS in its last 31 games as a double-digit favorite including 5-6 ATS this season. The Nuggets are just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were a road favorite, which is the situation here, going 4-6 ATS in that spot this season. Finally, Denver is a long-term 73-82 ATS following a win including 18-22 ATS this season. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Celtics -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start on their current road trip with consecutive close losses coming at the hands of the Cavaliers and Nuggets. I look for them to 'get right' on Saturday as they continue their trip in Phoenix. The Suns are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. Their offense remains a bit of a mess with Devin Booker still sounding like he's a game or two away from returning. Note that Phoenix has been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to give up way too many scoring opportunities. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 16 straight games. The Celtics figure to take advantage. Despite being held to just 39 and 41 made field goals in the first two games of their current road trip, they've averaged 43 made field goals on 90 field goal attempts per game on the road this season. Note that Boston is a long-term 54-28 ATS in its last 82 games following consecutive losses by six points or less, as is the case here, including a 4-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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03-08-24 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | Top | 74-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Everyone is down on the Knicks right now. Perhaps rightfully so as they've lost eight of their last 11 games and could be without Jalen Brunson again on Friday as he nurses a knee injury. The Magic have to feel pretty good about themselves as they ride a five-game winning streak and are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip. They're playing with a rather small margin for error, however, noting that they've gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 88 or fewer in 16 of their last 17 contests. The Knicks can apply some defensive pressure here, noting they've held 14 of their last 16 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Offensively, New York is struggling, however it did get off a whopping 99 field goal attempts against Atlanta two nights ago. The shots simply weren't falling. Note that the Knicks have lost four straight meetings in this series and that's notable as the Magic haven't defeated them in five straight matchups since recording a six-game winning streak from 2009-2011. Orlando is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games with the line set between +3 and -3, which is likely to be the case here, including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Magic are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests following a win over a division opponent. Following consecutive wins over divisional foes they've gone 0-2 ATS over the last three campaigns. Additionally, they're 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following three consecutive double-digit victories including an 0-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 21-17 ATS in their last 38 home games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-2 ATS mark this season. They're also 27-20 ATS in their last 47 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 5-3 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Kings +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a 113-109 loss at home against the surging Bulls on Monday. I look for them to bounce back against the Lakers on Wednesday. Los Angeles delivered an impressive 116-104 victory over the Thunder on Monday. Keep in mind, the Lakers caught the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. What I like about the Kings is their ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Sacramento has held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of its last 16 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the season it has held opponents to an average of 87 field goal attempts per contest on the road. The Lakers have quite simply been shooting the lights out lately but I don't believe that is sustainable. On the flip side, Los Angeles continues to give up a boatload of scoring chances, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine and 15 of their last 17 contests. Note that the Kings are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 games following a home loss and 25-16 ATS in their last 41 contests following an upset loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 24-29 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, and 25-28 ATS in their last 53 contests as a home favorite of six points or less. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-03-24 | Thunder -4.5 v. Suns | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Suns had a rough night on Saturday. Not only did they lose to the Rockets but Jusuf Nurkic and Devin Booker were forced to leave with injuries and are questionable to return on Sunday. Regardless who is on the floor, Phoenix is having a miserable time slowing the opposition right now having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in 13 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. That should be music to the ears of the Thunder as they look to bounce back from a surprisingly loss in San Antonio to open their four-game road trip. Oklahoma City will have the rest advantage here having not played since Thursday. The Thunder are playing as well as any team in the league offensively right now having made good on 44 or more field goals in seven straight games. The Suns have reached that number just twice in their last seven contests. It's been a struggle for Phoenix just to run its offense, hoisting up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 17 of its last 22 games. That's not likely to cut it against an explosive Thunder offense on Sunday. For the Suns it would be easy to punt this one and get ready for a trip to Denver (they are 2-1 on their current homestand after all), especially if they're missing Nurkic and/or Booker. Meanwhile, the Thunder know that this trip is going to get tougher with a stop in Los Angeles to face the Lakers tomorrow night. Oklahoma City is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 games following an upset road loss by double-digits, as is the case here, including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, the Thunder are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 contests after giving up 130 points or more including a 3-1 ATS record this season. The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. They're also just 33-36 ATS in their last 69 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more including a 6-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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03-01-24 | Wizards v. Clippers -15 | Top | 115-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Washington at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This sets up as a smash spot for the reeling Clippers who enter this game losers of two straight and five of their last seven games overall. Los Angeles has faced a brutal stretch of opponents lately, going up against the Timberwolves, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Kings and Lakers over its last six contests. Only the date with Memphis offered any sort of reprieve and the Clippers did take advantage and win that game (albeit failing to cover the spread). Here, the Clips catch the Wizards off an 'empty the tank' overtime loss against the Lakers last night. Yes, last night's numbers were helped along by overtime but the Wizards have now allowed four of their last six opponents to make good on at least 50 field goals. They've yielded at least 47 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests. For the Clips, I believe their problems are fixable, at least in the short-term. They suffered a major collapse in the fourth quarter against the rival Lakers two nights ago, blowing a 21-point lead. They have now held each of their last four opponents to 91 or fewer field goal attempts which is a stride in the right direction after the way they had been playing previously. The Lakers quite simply went off offensively in the fourth quarter two nights ago. I don't expect the Wizards to replicate that performance here, noting that they average just 43 made field goals per contest on the road this season while the Clippers have held the opposition to an average of 41 successful field goal attempts per game at home. The Wiz are just 46-53 ATS in their last 109 games following an ATS victory including a 12-16 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Clips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 contests following consecutive upset losses at home, as is the case here. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and Los Angeles did cover the spread in its next game on that occasion as well. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-27-24 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers got crushed by the Bucks in front of a national audience on Sunday afternoon as their struggles without Joel Embiid continued. I do think there's a path for Philadelphia to stay competitive in Boston on Tuesday, however. The 76ers do have the ability to effectively shorten proceedings having held three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and 10 of their last 14 foes to 87 or less. The Celtics may actually be willing partners here noting that they've limited three of their last four opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite Philadelphia's recent struggles it has held six of its last seven opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. There's certainly plenty of room for improvement for the Sixers offense after they connected on just 36-of-97 field goal attempts in a failed comeback against Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia has hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests so it is at least finding a way to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that Philadelphia has dropped the last two matchups in this series but has gone 22-12 ATS in its last 34 games playing with double-revenge. The Sixers are also 21-17 ATS in their last 38 contests after being held to 100 points or less in their previous game including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, including a 1-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Celtics are also just 26-28 ATS in their last 54 games following eight straight victories including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-25-24 | Spurs v. Jazz -6 | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The Jazz are reeling right now, losers of five straight games both SU and ATS. Their recent struggles really came out of nowhere as they had notched consecutive impressive home wins over the Bucks and Thunder prior to their current losing skid. I see Sunday's matchup against the road-weary Spurs as an ideal 'get-right' spot. The wheels have come off for San Antonio defensively in recent weeks. It has allowed 49 or more made field goals in five of its last six games with each of its last four opponents getting off at least 92 field goal attempts. The Jazz had an awful shooting night against the Hornets on Thursday but I'm willing to chalk that up to rust following a week-long layoff due to the All-Star break. Note that Utah has still made good on more than 40 field goals in seven of its last eight contests. On the flip side, the Jazz put forth a better defensive effort in their first game following the break, holding Charlotte to just 40-of-92 shooting. Note that they've limited six of their last seven foes to 92 or fewer field goal attempts. San Antonio has been thriving in a more up-tempo environment. The Spurs check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in seven of their last 10 games. Note that San Antonio is just 39-43 ATS in its last 82 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 12-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Utah is 27-25 ATS in its last 52 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a 14-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Utah (8*). |
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02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 119-98 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks are coming off a much-needed upset win in Minnesota on Friday as they snapped their two-game losing streak. Milwaukee is still just 4-7 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. It figures to be hard-pressed to cover many spreads as a favorite when it has been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in a staggering eight straight games. Over that stretch, the Bucks were held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts on five different occasions. On the flip side, they've allowed six of their last eight foes to connect on at least 43 field goals. They were fortunate that the Timberwolves didn't take advantage of their opportunities on Friday as they did hoist up 98 field goal attempts. Philadelphia brought its two-game losing streak to a halt with a 104-97 win over the Cavaliers on Friday. The 76ers have now delivered the cash in three of their last five games ATS. They haven't exactly been setting the world on fire offensively either, but they're not the ones laying points in this spot. Note that Philadelphia has connected on 40 or more field goals in nine of its last 10 contests. Defensively, the 76ers have shown improvement lately, limiting three straight and six of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals including just 38 and 34 over their last two contests. The Bucks check in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -8 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Timberwolves dropped a 112-107 home loss against the Bucks last night. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the reeling Nets. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Nets check in having made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. They've mustered up just 79, 81 and 80 field goal attempts over their last three contests. Despite the loss last night, the T'Wolves continued to play well defensively. They've limited five straight and nine of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, only one of their last 19 opponents has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts. Offensively, Minnesota has been far more consistent than Brooklyn, knocking down 46 or more field goals in three of its last five games and 40 or more in 18 of its last 23 contests. Brooklyn hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team this season, going just 11-16 ATS in 27 games following an ATS loss including a 6-9 ATS mark following consecutive ATS defeats. The Nets are also just 23-29 ATS in their last 52 contests when seeking revenge for home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 5-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss by six points or less including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Heat +3.5 v. Pelicans | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. New Orleans looked like it emptied the tank in its first game back following the All-Star break last night, unloading on Houston in a 127-105 victory. The Pelicans played at an uncharacteristically fast pace in the game, hoisting up 96 field goal attempts. As a result, they reached 50 made field goals for a second straight game. I don't expect them to enjoy similar offensive success on Friday. Note that Miami quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories prior to the All-Star break. It checks in having limited eight straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It has also held five of its last six foes to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on three or more days' rest and a long-term 81-59 ATS in that situation. They're also 42-28 ATS in their last 70 contests as a road underdog. Meanwhile, New Orleans is just 17-18 ATS in its last 35 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 contests following a win by 20 points or more over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Miami (8*). |
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about their chances as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday night in Memphis. Los Angeles is struggling defensively right now having allowed six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to make good on at least 45 field goals. The Clippers have had no success slowing the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests. The Grizzlies, despite being undermanned, did show some signs of life offensively prior to the All-Star break, knocking down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. On the flip side they also held each of their last three opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Clippers have covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series but haven't won three games in a row ATS over the Grizzlies since back in 2018. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 40-54 ATS in its last 94 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 6-8 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Clips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Memphis on the other hand is 23-15 ATS in its last 38 games as a home underdog and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 contests when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis (10*). |
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02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors -2.5 | 130-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This sets up as a smash spot for the red hot Warriors as they host the Clippers on Wednesday night. Golden State has been on an incredible offensive tear, connecting on 44 or more field goals in an incredible 13 of its last 14 games. Over its last four contests it has knocked down 47, 52, 45 and 48 field goals. The Clippers are as vulnerable as it gets defensively right now having allowed four straight opponents to make good on 45 or more field goals. In fact, they've allowed six of their last seven foes to connect on 45 or more field goals. On the flip side, Los Angeles has sunken into a shooting slump itself, making good on 37 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. Note that the Clips are just 14-19 in their last 33 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 24-35 ATS in their last 59 contests following a home loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The Warriors are 41-27 in their last 68 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent and 28-11 ATS in their last 39 contests when playing with double-revenge, which is the situation after the Clips took the last two meetings in December. Take Golden State (8*). |
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02-13-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings suffered a heart-breaking loss the last time they played in Phoenix back on January 16th as they let the Suns off the hook in a 119-117 defeat (they still covered the spread). I say they let them off the hook because they led that game by 17 points at halftime and 12 points entering the fourth quarter. I like the spot for Sacramento here as it looks to get on track following a 127-113 loss in Oklahoma City on Sunday - its third defeat in its last four games. Sacramento continues to play well offensively. It has made good on at least 42 field goals in an incredible 15 of its last 17 games, connecting on 45, 51 and 44 field goals over its last three contests. The Suns have become rather forgiving defensively, allowing at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall. Of course, Phoenix has been red hot offensively but I do think the Kings are capable of at least limiting the Suns scoring opportunities, noting that Sacramento has held three straight and six of its last eight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts (it allows an average of 42-of-87 shooting on the road this season). Note that the Kings are 33-23 ATS in their last 56 games following a double-digit loss, including 8-5 ATS in that situation this season. They're also a long-term 52-43 ATS in their last 95 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more. Meanwhile, Phoenix is just 17-22 ATS in its last 39 games played on two days' rest (note that this is the first time it has had two days between games since January 16th-19th). The Suns are also just 15-17 ATS in their last 32 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-10-24 | Suns v. Warriors +2 | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now but so are the Suns. I do think Golden State is well-positioned to keep it rolling as it returns home on Saturday. Note that the Warriors have been red hot offensively, connecting on 43 or more field goals in 12 straight games including 47 or more in eight of those contests. They'll be facing a rather forgiving Suns defense on Saturday, noting that Phoenix has allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. Golden State on the other hand has limited four of its last six foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. More impressively, the Warriors have held five of their last six opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are on a tear offensively but their shots have also been falling at an unsustainable rate as they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight and 12 of their last 14 contests. Phoenix is a long-term 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games and 1-5 ATS this season off a home win by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The Suns are also 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests following three straight ATS victories. Golden State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests playing with triple-revenge (off three straight losses against an opponent). Take Golden State (10*). |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers +4.5 | 127-121 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers check in 0-3 on their current homestand (which wraps up tonight), having lost seven of their last eight games overall. The wheels have clearly come off since Joel Embiid went down to injury but I don't expect Philadelphia to fold the tent. This is an important game as they look to salvage the finale of this homestand and I'm confident they'll give the Hawks all they can handle. Note that Atlanta defeated Philadelphia 139-132 in overtime at home back on January 10th. Atlanta checks in off consecutive losses including a taxing 125-117 loss in Boston two nights ago in which it battled hard for four quarters but ultimately fell just short. My concern with the Hawks here is their defensive play. They've allowed seven of their last eight opponents to knock down at least 47 field goals. The 76ers are primed for a breakout offensively as they've been pushing the pace but the shots simply haven't been falling. Note that they've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games. Atlanta is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of six points or less and a miserable 30-61 ATS in its last 91 contests following an ATS win. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 contests following three straight ATS defeats. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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02-07-24 | Hawks v. Celtics -12 | 117-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. First off, it's worth noting that the straight-up winner has covered the spread in 17 straight meetings between these two teams. I look for that trend to continue on Wednesday. Atlanta had an off day on Tuesday but you have to wonder how much it has in the tank as it heads on the road for this two-game trip. Note that the Hawks have been involved in six straight wild, high-scoring affairs with five of those contests decided by nine points or less and three settled by five or less. The Celtics on the other hand are coming off what amounted to little more than a glorified scrimmage against the undermanned Grizzlies at home on Sunday. In fact, Boston will be playing just its third game in the last eight nights, all at home. The Celtics have turned things around defensively over their last two contests, holding the Lakers and Grizzlies to 38 and 35 made field goals, respectively. It's a much different story for the Hawks as they've allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 46 field goals in regulation time despite four of those six foes hoisting up fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Atlanta checks in 27-45 ATS in its last 72 games as a road underdog and 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests following a home loss. Boston is 52-36 ATS in its last 88 contests following a home win and 12-10 ATS in its last 22 games after a home win by 20 points or more, including a 3-1 ATS mark this season. Take Boston (8*). |
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02-07-24 | Warriors v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers have lost two games in a row and six of their last seven overall as they struggled to adapt to life without Joel Embiid. I don't think Philadelphia is as bad as it has looked lately, however, and do think it will get things straightened out sooner rather than later. Note that the 76ers opponents have been shooting the lights out during their current slide. The good news is, the Sixers have continued to limit the opposition's scoring opportunities, allowing 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games. On the flip side, it's only a matter of time before the Sixers start cashing in on their own opportunities, noting that they've hoisted up 94, 96 and 93 field goal attempts in their last three contests. The Warriors have gotten a little too loose for my liking defensively, allowing nine of their last 14 opponents to get off at least 89 field goal attempts. While it looks like Golden State has been lighting it up offensively during its current 3-1 run, it has actually been fairly muted, connecting on 44, 46, 46 and 43 field goals in regulation time over that stretch (still impressive numbers but not overwhelmingly so). For Golden State this will be its fifth game in five different cities in the last nine nights. Philadelphia on the other hand has the advantage of staying home for a third straight contest. Note that the Warriors are just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 10-13 ATS in their last 23 contests following a double-digit road win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Philadelphia is also 21-17 ATS in its last 38 contests following a double-digit loss. Finally, we'll note that the favorite has covered the spread in three straight meetings in this series. It hasn't done so in four consecutive matchups between these two teams since 2010-12. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-06-24 | Mavs v. Nets +2.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams had very different results last night as Dallas defeated Philadelphia in blowout fashion while Brooklyn dropped a double-digit decision against Golden State. I look for the Nets to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to avenge an earlier five-point loss against the Mavs in Dallas. Note that Dallas has now won four straight meetings in this series. It hasn't delivered five consecutive wins over Brooklyn since 2009-2011. The Nets have given up way too many scoring opportunities over the last couple of games, yielding 96 and 93 field goal attempts against the 76ers and Warriors, respectively. They get a bit of a reprieve here as the Mavs haven't been pushing the pace, getting off 69, 76, 81 and 87 field goal attempts over their last four games. On the flip side, Dallas has allowed six of its last seven opponents to knock down at least 43 field goals. Brooklyn has held 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Dallas is just 15-17 ATS in its last 32 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 21-29 ATS in its last 50 contests following a road victory. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 28-23 ATS in its last 51 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent and 8-5 ATS when coming off a home loss this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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02-04-24 | Grizzlies v. Celtics -16.5 | 91-131 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Memphis at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a steep line even by today's NBA standards but I think it will prove too short. Memphis is missing a number of key contributors right now and checks in having lost four straight games, going 2-2 ATS over that stretch. Note that the one thing the Grizzlies have been able to hang their hat on at times this season has been their defense but even that has sagged lately. Memphis has allowed its last four opponents to knock down 44, 43, 41 and 46 field goals. That's despite three of those four opponents getting off 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Boston figures to push it much more on Sunday, noting that the Celtics have hoisted up 93 field goal attempts per game on average at home this season. Boston is inexplicably mired in a four-game ATS losing streak. The Celtics do have the rest advantage here having not played since Thursday's no-show against the Lebron and A.D.-less Lakers. On a positive note, Boston has connected on more than 40 field goals in six of its last seven games. The problem defensively has been the fact that the Celtics have been far too loose, allowing more than 90 field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Grizzlies don't figure to push the pace here, however, noting that Memphis has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 games. The Grizzlies are just 25-37 ATS in their last 62 games as a road underdog and 17-20 ATS in their last 37 games following a home loss. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 38-23 ATS in their last 61 games after scoring 105 points or less in their previous game and 19-13 ATS in their last 32 contests following an upset loss at home. Take Boston (8*). |
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02-03-24 | Kings v. Bulls -1.5 | 123-115 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Sacramento at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Kings drilled the Pacers in Indiana last night as they were in a smash spot, rested and revenge-minded facing a Pacers team that had just suffered an emotional loss in New York the night previous. This is a much different situation as the Kings play the second of back-to-backs against a rested Bulls squad that last played on Wednesday, when they delivered a 117-110 win in Charlotte. Chicago has been playing reasonably well, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests. The Bulls have impressively held seven of their last nine opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, they've connected on 48, 47, 45, 47, 42, 38 and 45 field goals over their last seven contests. They figure to get their opportunities against a road-weary Kings squad here. Sacramento has allowed 42 or more made field goals in seven of its last nine games. While the Kings took full advantage of a tired Pacers team last night, connecting on 51 field goals, they've actually been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six contests. Note that Sacramento has won three straight meetings in this series ATS but hasn't delivered four or more consecutive ATS victories over the Bulls since 2013-14. The Kings check in 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit road win and 15-17 ATS in their last 32 road contests with the line set between +3 and -3. Chicago is 29-21 ATS in its last 50 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 25-21 ATS in its last 46 contests following a road win. Take Chicago (8*). |
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02-01-24 | Pacers v. Knicks -3.5 | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Indiana at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game the Knicks have had circled on their calendar since dropping an ugly 140-126 decision in Indiana back on December 30th. Since then, New York has gone 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that's more locked-in defensively than the Knicks right now. They enter Thursday's action having held 10 straight and 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Pacers obviously pose a stiff challenge as they can score with the best of them but I think the Knicks can make them uncomfortable here, noting New York has limited four straight and 15 of its last 18 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Knicks have been scoring in bunches lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in five of their last six contests. Indiana, meanwhile, has allowed 44 or more made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. Note that the Pacers are just 29-37 ATS in their last 66 games following a road loss and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 contests after an ATS win but SU loss on the road, as is the case here. The Knicks are 25-21 ATS in their last 46 contests as a home favorite of six points or less and 26-19 ATS in their last 45 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent. Take New York (8*). |
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01-30-24 | Pacers +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. There's nothing to fear when it comes to facing the Celtics right now as they've clearly been off their game in recent weeks, going 8-10 ATS over their last 18 games. They're in a tough back-to-back spot on Tuesday after staging a massive fourth quarter rally against the Pelicans to avoid a second straight defeat. Note that Boston has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 11 games. On the flip side, it has allowed more than 40 made field goals in six straight contests with its last four opponents connecting on 43, 42, 45 and 46 field goals. The Pacers on the other hand have reeled off three straight wins and are heating up again offensively, knocking down 43, 53, 58 and 44 field goals over their last four games. They've also held five of their last seven foes to 44 or fewer made field goals - that's progress for this team defensively. The Celtics will be looking to avenge a 133-131 loss in Indiana back on January 8th but they check in just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 44-38 ATS in their last 82 games as a road underdog. Take Indiana (10*). |
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01-29-24 | Jazz v. Nets | 114-147 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn over Utah at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Jazz are 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games, scoring 120 or more points in all 11 of those contests. I think they'll be hard-pressed to reach that number on Monday, however, as they continue their road trip in Brooklyn. While the Utah offense is flying its defense leaves a lot to be desired. Note that the Jazz have allowed 48, 45, 60, 43 and 47 made field goals over their last five games. In stark contrast, the Nets have held eight straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note only that but Brooklyn has limited 10 of its last 13 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. While the Nets offense has connected on only 35 and 36 field goals over its last two games, keep in mind it got off only 77 and 74 field goal attempts. Prior to that it had hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in three straight games, knocking down 50, 44 and 42. It should enjoy a free-flowing environment here given Utah has allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 contests. Note that the Jazz are just 10-11 ATS in their last 21 games following consecutive ATS victories as a favorite and 10-13 ATS in their last 23 contests after scoring 130 points or more in their previous game. The Nets are 27-22 ATS in their last 49 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including 6-4 ATS this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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01-29-24 | Clippers v. Cavs +2.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Clippers roll into this game on the heels of five straight wins, including a stunning rout of the Celtics in Boston on Saturday. The Cavaliers are also red hot, however, having won nine of their last 10 games and I look for them to give the Clips all they can handle on Monday. Note that Los Angeles, while known for its stout defense, has played a little looser lately, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in four straight games. Of Los Angeles' last eight opponents, six have managed to knock down more than 40 field goals. The Cavs don't generally play at a fast pace but have appeared comfortable doing so during their current run, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. They remain as locked-in defensively as any team in the league right now having held six of their last seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips are just 10-13 ATS in their last 23 games following an upset win and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests when that upset win came on the road. They're also a long-term 15-23 ATS in their last 38 games following five straight ATS wins. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 contests following a double-digit upset win on the road, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 41-26 ATS in their last 67 games following a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Suns v. Magic +2 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have lost consecutive games and are just 2-7 over their last nine contests as they've sunken into a bit of an offensive slump. The Suns might be just the opponent to bring them out of it on Sunday, however, noting that Phoenix has allowed 10 straight opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals (Orlando has connected on fewer than 40 field goals in nine straight contests) with each of its last seven foes getting off at least 89 field goal attempts. Defensively, the Magic continue to play well. Here at home they've limited the opposition to 39-of-84 shooting this season. They've held nine of their last 10 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Suns are just 10-12 ATS including 0-4 ATS this season when coming off a game in which they scored 130 or more points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Magic 21-17 ATS in their last 38 games following a loss by three points or less and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season following an upset defeat. Take Orlando (8*). |
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01-27-24 | Kings -1.5 v. Mavs | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Dallas at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. You have to figure the Kings were sitting back enjoying last night's incredible performance from Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic. Dallas narrowly escaped with a victory thanks to Doncic's 73-point explosion in Atlanta. Note that he played 44-of-48 minutes in that contest and now Dallas has to turn around and play its third game in four nights. The Kings went through a lull earlier this month, dropping four straight games but have since rebounded with two wins in a row. Their offense is certainly rounding back into form having knocked down 55, 46, 44, 43 and 48 field goals over their last five contests. The Mavs connected on 51 field goals (Doncic accounted for nearly half of them) in last night's victory but that marked the first time in eight games they made good on more than 44 field goals. Note that the road team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series including a 129-113 Kings victory here in Dallas back in November. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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01-25-24 | Kings -2 v. Warriors | Top | 134-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Warriors here as they play the second of back-to-backs following an emotional return to the floor (following the death of their assistant coach last week) in a rout of the Hawks last night. Sacramento comes in rested following consecutive off days, which came on the heels of a much-needed 122-107 win over those same Hawks on Monday. That victory snapped a four-game losing skid. Note that Sacramento is still 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests as the schedule has certainly gotten tougher lately. This marks the start of a key seven-game road trip for the Kings. Note that they check in 26-17 ATS in their last 43 games as a road favorite and 18-10 ATS in their last 28 contests after losing four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 contests following a win by 20 points or more. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-24-24 | Hornets +3 v. Pistons | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. It may seem a little strange to be throwing around a term like 'revenge' when it comes to two teams that have combined for only four wins this season. I believe it works in this particular situation, however. Charlotte actually opened the campaign with an upset win at home against Atlanta. It couldn't build on that victory though as it fell as a 4.5-point favorite at home against the lowly Pistons two nights later. Note that the road team is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Charlotte dealt Terry Rozier to the Heat in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a first round draft pick yesterday. It was the right move. Rozier certainly adds a lot offensively, particularly as a facilitator but he has become a liability defensively this season. Consider it a case of addition by subtraction at that end of the floor. Note that the Hornets have actually held up reasonably well defensively in recent weeks. They've limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They also enter this contest having held four of their last five foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. It's been a much different story for the Pistons. They've allowed six of their last seven opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they limited an opponent to fewer than 41 made field goals. Note that Charlotte is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite. This season, the Hornets are 6-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Detroit on the other hand is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. It is also a long-term 8-18 ATS in its last 26 contests when playing at home with the total set at 230 points or higher, as is the case here. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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01-22-24 | Cavs -1 v. Magic | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Cavaliers got off to a difficult start this season but they've since turned it around, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. Perhaps no team is as locked-in defensively as Cleveland right now as it has held four straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and an incredible 11 straight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Orlando delivered a blowout win over Miami last night. The Magic aren't exactly setting the world on fire offensively right now as they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in seven straight games. In fact, they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 14 straight contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have connected on 43 or more field goals in six of their last nine games including 49 or more three times over that stretch. Note that Cleveland is 40-25 ATS in its last 65 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 48-43 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 100 or more points. Orlando is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 contests following a win over a division opponent and 13-17 ATS in its last 30 contests after a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Thunder v. Wolves -2.5 | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Thunder were involved in a barn-burner in Utah on Thursday, the Timberwolves were cruising to a comfortable win at home against the undermanned Grizzlies. I think it's advantage Minnesota in this spot as it looks to exact revenge for a 129-106 loss suffered in Oklahoma City on Boxing Day. Oklahoma City checks in having allowed 44, 47 and 43 made field goals in its first three games on its current four-game road trip. We know what the Thunder are capable of offensively but they run into a tough matchup here, noting that the Timberwolves have held opponents to an average of just 38 made field goals per game at home this season and have limited five of their last six foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. While the Thunder will be looking ahead to a couple of much needed days off and a return home, the Timberwolves will stay at home as they wrap up their three-game homestand with a game against the Hornets on Monday. Note that Oklahoma City is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games following a road win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Minnesota is a long-term 51-33 ATS in its last 84 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 or more points. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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01-19-24 | Nuggets +6 v. Celtics | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Celtics are an incredible 20-0 at home this season but I do think the Nuggets are poised to give them a run on Friday at TD Garden. Boston is coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS. Note that the Celtics are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 games following consecutive ATS victories in a favorite role and 3-6 ATS in their last nine contests when coming off three straight covers as a fave, as is the case here. Boston is also 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games after holding consecutive opponents to 100 points or less, which is also the situation here. Denver had virtually all hands on deck for Tuesday's game in Philadelphia but ultimately fell by a 126-121 score. Having had a couple of days off to chew on that loss, I look for the Nuggets to bounce back on Friday. Note that Denver is 24-15 ATS in its last 39 contests after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. The Nuggets check in red hot offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in five of their last six games. They figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Celtics squad that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 12 straight games. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-19-24 | 76ers v. Magic +5.5 | 124-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers have owned the Magic in recent years but I like the way this spot sets up for Orlando at home on Friday. The Magic are admittedly in a bit of an offensive funk right now but that will happen when you go on a road trip that includes stops in Miami, Oklahoma City, New York and Atlanta (I'm not saying the Hawks are an elite defensive team but they are tough at home). I do think the Magic are catching the 76ers at the right time as Philadelphia has looked beatable defensively in recent games, allowing 43, 46, 48, 32, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last six contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have been held to 43 or fewer made field goals themselves in seven of their last eight games. Orlando should get a boost from returning home and it's worth noting that it has held opponents to an average of just 39 made field goals per game on this floor. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Magic allowed an opponent to knock down more than 43 field goals. Note that Philadelphia is a long-term 29-32 ATS in its last 61 games following three consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here. The Magic are 71-57 ATS in their last 128 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 21-16 ATS in their last 37 contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Orlando (8*). |
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01-18-24 | Bulls -2.5 v. Raptors | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors played with plenty of emotion on the same day Pascal Siakam was dealt to the Pacers, routing the Heat to snap a four-game losing streak. Now they're in a tough back-to-back spot, however, as they host a rested Bulls squad that should be in a foul mood following Monday's no-show in Cleveland. That blowout loss in Cleveland brought an end to Chicago's streak of five straight games knocking down 40 or more field goals. It wasn't all bad news, however, as the Bulls did hold Cleveland to just 39 made field goals - their second straight contest limiting the opposition to fewer than 40 made field goals. Note that Chicago checks in 33-27 ATS in its last 60 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Chicago (8*). |
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01-17-24 | Nets -6 v. Blazers | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Trail Blazers stunned the Nets in Brooklyn last week, winning 134-127 as 9.5-point underdogs. I look for the Nets to answer back as the scene shifts to the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Brooklyn should be able to put plenty of pressure on the Blazers sagging defense here. The Nets have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. Portland, meanwhile, has allowed 44 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests and hasn't really had the ability to dictate the tempo of its opposition this season. While Brooklyn has lost three straight games and eight of its last nine overall, it has at least shown signs of righting the ship defensively. The Nets have held six of their last seven opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and four of their last six foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. Note that Brooklyn is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite of seven points or more. It also checks in 17-13 ATS in its last 30 contests following three straight losses. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a long-term 19-32 ATS as a home underdog and 11-19 ATS in their last 30 home games as an underdog of six points or less. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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01-15-24 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +8.5 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 6 pm et on Monday. The Warriors opened their current road trip with a win in Chicago as they rallied for a wild 140-131 victory. They couldn't keep it going the next night as they dropped a double-digit decision in Milwaukee (Steph Curry was given the night off). While this looks like a prime bounce-back spot given the current state of the Grizzlies roster, I'm not so easily convinced. Memphis lost by 'only' 11 points against a red hot Knicks squad with a lineup that looked like what you would expect in the preseason on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have held five of their last seven opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Regardless who is able to suit up for Memphis on Monday, it should thrive offensively. Note that the opposition has been 'filling it up' against the Warriors lately, knocking down 50 or more field goals in four straight games against them and 48 or more in six of the last eight contests. Note that the underdog has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Grizzlies check in 17-10 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring 100 points or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also 27-17 ATS in their lat 44 games following consecutive ATS losses. Take Memphis (10*). |
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01-14-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 142-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Kings got their current road trip off to a perfect 2-0 start before running into the 76ers in Philadelphia on Friday. The road won't get any easier with a stop in Milwaukee on deck on Sunday but I look for Sacramento to hang tough. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Kings have had circled on their calendar having lost an incredible 14 straight meetings in this series going back to 2016. There have been plenty of close games over that stretch and I certainly feel that the Kings have closed the talent gap somewhat in recent years. Note that the Kings enter this contest sporting a 10-8 road record (11-7 ATS) while the Bucks are 18-3 SU at home but a money-burning 8-13 ATS. Sacramento has quietly held three straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Going back farther, the Kings have limited 15 of their last 19 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight contests. The Bucks have shown on interest or ability to slow down the opposition, yielding at least 90 field goal attempts in 16 of their last 18 contests. The Kings are a long-term 60-42 ATS when playing on the road and 34-26 ATS in their last 60 road games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Bucks are just 37-41 ATS in their last 78 games following a home win and a long-term 80-103 ATS when coming off consecutive home victories. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-13-24 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2.5 | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. While this isn't necessarily a 'throwaway game' for the Pelicans, it's as close to it as it gets. New Orleans is already off to a 2-1 start on its current five-game road trip, which wraps up with this two-game in three-night set in Dallas. The tough part here is that the Pelicans are coming off a double-digit loss in Denver last night - a high-scoring affair in which they expended plenty of energy trying to fight back all night long, to no avail. Often teams that play a back-to-back with the front half taking place in the high altitude of Denver will play the second half in Utah, also in high altitude (or vice-versa). That's obviously not the case here. The Mavericks had yesterday off following Thursday's 128-124 home win over the Knicks. Dallas has now won four of its last five games SU and ATS and has gone 8-3 ATS since December 23rd. Luka Doncic remains sidelined but Kyrie Irving appears to be relishing the role of top dog again, fresh off scoring 33 or more points in three straight games. Note that New Orleans is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 road games after winning four or five of its last six games ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Dallas is 36-22 ATS in its last 58 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. Take Dallas (8*). |
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01-10-24 | 76ers +2.5 v. Hawks | 132-139 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers had a brutal back-to-back set at home against New York and Utah last Friday and Saturday. The absence of Joel Embiid has certainly hurt their cause but this is still a team that has enough talent to hang, even without their big man. They got caught trying to do too much on Saturday against the Jazz, hoisting up an uncharacteristic 104 field goal attempts in the 120-109 loss. I think we'll see a much more composed 76ers squad on Wednesday as they come off a much-needed three-day break. They'll certainly get their opportunities against a Hawks team that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games. Of their last 11 opponents, nine have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Only three of Philadelphia's last 15 foes have made good on 43 or more field goals. The Hawks can score with the best of them but despite hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games, they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in three of those contests. Note that the 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following consecutive upset losses, as is the case here. They're also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. The Hawks on the other hand are just 33-41 ATS in their last 74 games as a home favorite and 18-26 ATS in their last 44 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, which is the situation here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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01-08-24 | Suns +6.5 v. Clippers | 111-138 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Suns dropped a 121-115 home decision against the Grizzlies last night as they essentially folded the tent in the fourth quarter and let Memphis off the hook. That doesn't change the fact that Phoenix has been playing better lately, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Note that the Suns have knocked down 44 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. They'll head to Los Angeles on Monday to face a Clippers squad that is fresh off a 106-103 loss to the Lakers last night. While Los Angeles has been stacking wins, you can almost sense a downturn coming. The Clippers offense has stagnated somewhat, making good on 42 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven contests. Of course, there was a 131-point outburst against these same Suns in Phoenix last week but I think the Clips will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance in this back-to-back spot. Note that the road team has gone 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. I noted that Phoenix's offense has been trending up and you could argue it has played better defensive basketball on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just a shade under 112 points per game which is around two points per game fewer than its overall season average. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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01-08-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +4 | 131-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Celtics had little trouble disposing of the Pacers on this floor two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold in Monday's rematch. Indiana was in a difficult spot on Saturday as it poured in 150 points in a rout of the Hawks the night previous, using up much of what it had in the tank. Boston on the other hand shifted into cruise control relatively early in a victory over the Jazz one night earlier. It's also worth noting that Saturday's affair was a revenge spot for the C's after they dropped a 122-112 decision in Indiana in early December. The shoe is on the other foot here. Note that the Pacers are 31-22 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Indiana is also 22-15 ATS in its last 37 contests as a home underdog six points or less. The Celtics on the other hand are a miserable 11-22 ATS in their last 33 games following consecutive ATS wins as favorites. They're also just 13-18 ATS in their last 31 contests after holding their last two opponents to 105 points or less, which is the situation here. Take Indiana (8*). |
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01-07-24 | Clippers v. Lakers +5 | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Lakers plus the points over the Clippers at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. These two teams appear headed in opposite directions right now with the Clippers having won five games in a row SU and four straight ATS while the Lakers have dropped four straight contests including three in a row ATS. We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Lakers on Sunday, however, as I see this as a favorable spot. The Lakers have been home since the turn of the New Year but have nothing to show for it, dropping back-to-back games against the Heat and Grizzlies at Crypto.com Arena. It's been quite a slide since winning the inaugural in-season tournament but there is an opportunity here to start turning things around as this is only the third game of a five-game homestand. The Clippers are probably feeling pretty good about themselves after opening their current road trip with wins in Phoenix and New Orleans. This is where things get a little tricky as they'll play against the Lakers tonight before hosting the Suns tomorrow. Note that the Clippers are a long-term 61-98 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here. They're also 39-69 ATS when coming off four or more consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 32-25 ATS in their last 57 games following a double-digit loss and 61-47 ATS in their last 108 contests following an ATS defeat. Take the Lakers (8*). |
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01-02-24 | Celtics v. Thunder +3 | Top | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It seems as though the Thunder still aren't being treated like an elite team in the betting marketplace. Here, they're installed as a home underdog against the Celtics, despite playing some of their best basketball of the season - a red hot 7-1 SU and ATS over their last eight games. While Oklahoma City is gaining a reputation for being an outstanding offensive team, and for good reason, I've been even more impressed by its defensive play. Note that the Thunder have allowed just three of their last seven opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In stark contrast, the Celtics have allowed 40+ made field goals in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 contests. Both teams come in following an off day on Monday. The difference I see here is that Boston will be playing in its sixth different city since December 19th while Oklahoma City has only had to leave home for a single game (in Denver) over that same period. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are a long-term 95-126 ATS when coming off a double-digit road win, as is the case here. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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01-01-24 | Mavs v. Jazz +3.5 | 90-127 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Dallas at 9:10 pm et on Monday. Sometimes you have to ride the streaks and right now the Jazz are on a heater having reeled off five straight ATS victories. They'll look to avoid a fourth straight defeat at the hands of the Mavericks on Monday, noting that Dallas hasn't won four consecutive matchups in this season since 2013-15. The Mavs have been wildly inconsistent this season and I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown following Saturday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Note that they're just 18-35 ATS in their last 53 games following a win. Utah rallied for a 117-109 victory over the Heat at home on Saturday. The Jazz have gone an incredible 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games as a home underdog. They're also 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season. Take Utah (8*). |
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12-31-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Suns | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The Suns have delivered back-to-back blowout wins over the fast-fading Rockets and Hornets. I look for them to come back to Earth as they host the Magic on Sunday. Orlando has shaken off a recent slump to deliver three wins in its last four games SU and four in its last five ATS. Note that the underdog has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. The Magic are 52-38 ATS in their last 90 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Meanwhile, the Suns are 15-28 ATS in their last 43 games off a double-digit home victory. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-29-23 | Bucks v. Cavs +5.5 | 119-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Cavaliers have gone through their ups and downs this season but have battled harder than most teams on their way to an 18-13 record. The needle is most definitely pointed up right now as they've gone 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 games and draw a statement game at home against the Bucks on Friday. Milwaukee dismantled Brooklyn 144-122 two nights ago. We'll fade it off that win and cover as a double-digit favorite, however. Note that the Bucks are 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games after scoring 120 points or more in three straight games, as is the case here. They're also a long-term 96-102 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 15-9 ATS in their last 24 games off an upset win, which is the situation here following Wednesday's victory in Dallas. They're also a long-term 51-42 ATS when coming off consecutive road wins. The home team has dominated this particular series lately, taking six straight meetings both SU and ATS. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-28-23 | Jazz v. Pelicans -8 | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans have dropped consecutive games but draw a favorable matchup to get back on track on Thursday against the Jazz. New Orleans recent losses haven't been for lack of trying. The Pelicans have still held eight straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. In stark contrast, the Jazz have allowed their last four opponents to knock down 45, 43, 44 and 45 field goals. Note that Utah is 15-29 ATS in its last 44 games after winning three of its last four contests, as is the case here, while New Orleans checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games after losing four of five of its last six games. The home team has reeled off four consecutive SU and ATS wins in this series. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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12-23-23 | Magic +1.5 v. Pacers | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are struggling right now with the Magic having lost four games in a row and the Pacers coming off five losses in their last six games. The Magic should bring confidence into this game knowing that they've already defeated Indiana by double-digits on this floor earlier this season while they've also held each of their last two opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, they've held four of their last six foes to 40 or fewer made field goals with only the Celtics (twice) breaking through that level. Everyone scores on Indiana with the Pacers having allowed at least 43 made field goals in 12 straight contests. Note that Orlando is 30-22 ATS in its last 52 games after losing three of its last four games ATS while Indiana has gone a long-term 58-82 ATS in its last 140 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-21-23 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 115-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Clippers here as they play the second of back-to-backs after reeling off consecutive wins to open their three-game road trip. In fact, they've won nine straight games overall and five in a row ATS. They played on consecutive nights only once over that stretch and that was at home against Sacramento. The Thunder have been home and cool since Monday, when they rolled to a 19-point win over the Grizzlies. They won't take the floor again until they host the Lakers on Saturday. You could argue that no team is healthier than the Thunder right now and only the Timberwolves own a better record in the Western Conference. The Clippers could understandably be caught looking ahead to a four-game homestand that will begin on Saturday against Boston and take them all the way into the New Year. Note that the home team has gone 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series. While we are being asked to lay a considerable number of points with Oklahoma City on this occasion, I believe the line is warranted. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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12-20-23 | Knicks v. Nets +1.5 | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Nets didn't have a great road trip, going 1-4 SU and ATS including three straight defeats to close it out. I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday as they host the rival Knicks, who make the long trip from Los Angeles following a 1-1 split against the Clippers and Lakers. New York's defensive play has left a lot to be desired lately as it has allowed nine straight opponents to make good on at least 42 field goals. It's been a similar story for the Nets lately but now they're back home where they've held the opposition to an average of 40 made field goals per contest this season. In fact, only one of their last six foes here at home has managed to knock down more than 40 field goals. Home court certainly mattered in this series last season with the host winning all four meetings both SU and ATS. Note that the underdog is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 matchups between these two teams. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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12-20-23 | Wolves v. 76ers -3 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Timberwolves used up a lot of what they had in the tank rallying for Monday's come-from-behind win in Miami - their third straight victory. I look for them to come up short on Wednesday as they stay on the road to face the 76ers. Philadelphia dropped a 108-104 decision against the Bulls on Monday, falling as a double-digit favorite. The 76ers are in a revenge spot here after losing 112-99 in Minnesota back in November. That's notable as they're an impressive 29-11 ATS in their last 40 games played when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Minnesota checks in 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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12-15-23 | Magic +6 v. Celtics | 111-128 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. In an odd scheduling quirk, the Magic enter this tilt in Boston well-rested following three off days (they last played on Monday at home against Cleveland). The Celtics have played twice since then, including last night as they were forced to use up much of what they had in the tank holding off a late push from the Cavaliers. This certainly isn't a favorable matchup at the best of times for Boston as Orlando has won each of the last four meetings, including two straight matchups here in Beantown. Note that the Celtics are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here after they dropped a 113-96 decision in Orlando on November 24th. Meanwhile, the Magic are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games when priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, as is the case here. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-14-23 | Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
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12-13-23 | Nets +2.5 v. Suns | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nets didn't get this road trip off to the start they had hoped for, dropping a 13-point decision in Sacramento on Sunday. I look for them to get back on track on Wednesday, however, as they have a major rest advantage against a Suns squad that looked like it used everything it had in the tank in last night's thrilling win over the Warriors. Brooklyn has quietly been one of the best bets in the league this season, going 16-5-1 ATS. Few have paid much attention but the Nets check in sporting a winning record with Sunday's defeat in Sacramento marking just their second loss in their last eight contests. Note that the Nets are a long-term 70-39 ATS against Pacific Division opponents and 8-1 ATS when coming off a loss this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks have obviously had this game circled since dropping an ugly one against the Pacers in the in-season tournament semi-final round last week. In fact, Indiana has taken both previous matchups between these two teams this season. Neither of those games were played in Milwaukee, however. The Bucks are 11-1 at home this season while the Pacers have given up just shy of 132 points per game on the road. Note that the Bucks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games as a favorite of six points or less. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Milwaukee is a long-term 27-20 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and 24-19 ATS in its last 43 games following consecutive ATS defeats, which is also the situation here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-12-23 | Nuggets v. Bulls +7.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls have quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories, including last night's near-miss in a four-point overtime loss in Milwaukee. Yes, Chicago is missing some key contributors, including Zach LaVine but others like Demar Derozan and Coby White have more than picked up the slack. This isn't a team that is going to get blown out often as it has held an incredible 20 of its last 21 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Nuggets are an excellent defensive team in their own right, they've yielded more than 44 made field goals twice in their last six games alone. Denver did deliver a win and cover in Atlanta last night but that only served to snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak. Note that the Nuggets are long-term losers playing the second of back-to-back nights having gone 210-258 ATS going all the way back to 1996. Denver did take the first meeting between these two teams by a 123-101 score in the Mile High City back in November. It hasn't won consecutive matchups with the Bulls since 2021, going 2-3 SU in the last five meetings. Prior to a 126-103 win in Chicago last November, Denver hadn't won a game at the United Center by more than six points since 2018. Take Chicago (10*). |
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12-11-23 | Cavs v. Magic -2 | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Cavaliers off Friday's road win over the Heat. Orlando is off to a terrific 15-7 start this season but just snapped a two-game skid with Friday's rout of the lowly Pistons. This is a quick revenge spot for the Magic after they suffered a 10-point loss in Cleveland last week. The Cavs are fresh off consecutive ATS wins but it's worth noting that marks their longest ATS winning streak this season. They're 0-2 ATS following back-to-back ATS wins this season, missing covers by 32 and 20 points in those two contests. Note that Orlando is 32-20 ATS in its last 52 home games. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The underdog has gone an incredible 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series and I believe the Pacers are well-positioned to keep that run going on Saturday. The Lakers impressed in the semi-final round two nights ago, blasting New Orleans by a whopping 44 points. Indiana might have been even more impressive, dominating the Bucks in a 128-119 victory. The Lakers have now held three straight opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals but I think there's a good chance the Pacers overwhelm them with their offense here, noting that Indiana has knocked down 42 or more field goals in an incredible 17 straight games. The Lakers have reached that number of higher just twice in their last six games. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 37-57 ATS when coming off an ATS victory and a woeful 5-15 ATS in its last 20 contests after winning four of its last five games ATS, as is the case here. Take Indiana (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Kings -1.5 v. Suns | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings have an extra day of rest advantage here after they bowed out of the in-season tournament with a disappointing home loss against the Pelicans on Monday. They've now lost four of their last seven games but I like their chances of bouncing back against the Suns on Friday. Phoenix is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS over its last four contests. Bradley Beal has yet to make much of a contribution at all due to injury while Kevin Durant is now sidelined as well. Durant's absence has obviously been factored into the line but as a whole, the Suns have struggled offensively, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in four straight games. Note that the Kings are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a home defeat and have proven to be road warriors, going 35-19 ATS in their last 54 contests away from home. The Suns are 23-28 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog and 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests as a home underdog of six points or less. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Cavs -0.5 v. Heat | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Just a simple fade of the Heat off their 'upset' win in Toronto on Wednesday. Miami hasn't exactly been blowing the opposition off the floor at home this season, going 5-3 in South Beach but an even 119.2 points apiece in terms of scoring average. Note that the Heat are just 27-40 ATS in their last 67 games following a SU win and 19-34 ATS in their last 53 contests coming off an ATS victory. The Cavaliers got off to a slow start this season but have since gone 8-3 over their last 11 games including an impressive double-digit victory over the upstart Magic on Wednesday. Letdowns haven't really been a problem for the Cavs as they're 35-23 ATS in their last 58 games following a double-digit victory. Also note that Cleveland will be seeking revenge for a 33-point home loss against Miami suffered back in November. Note that the Cavs have gone a perfect 2-0 ATS the only two times they've been in a similar revenge spot over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-08-23 | Knicks +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-133 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks have played just once since last Friday as they got drilled by the Bucks in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Monday. Milwaukee simply couldn't miss in that game, shooting a blistering 60% from the field. I'm confident we'll see the scrappy Knicks respond in this divisional road contest on Friday. They're set up well having gone a long-term 71-44 ATS when coming off a game in which the opposition shot 55% or better from the field. This is a revenge spot for the Knicks as well after they suffered a lopsided 16-point defeat in Boston back in November. Note that New York checks in 6-5 on the road this season where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points. Boston has dropped the cash in consecutive games and is just 2-7 ATS over its last nine contests. It's difficult to cover these lofty spreads when you're playing as loose as the Celtics are defensively. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in six of their last eight games. Take New York (10*). |
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12-07-23 | Pelicans v. Lakers -1.5 | 89-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers aren't likely to be competing for the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June but they do have a good chance to take the inaugural in-season tournament title in Las Vegas. Los Angeles checks in 10-4 over its last 14 games but did survive a comeback scare against the Suns in the quarter-final round. New Orleans on the other hand got an incredible performance from Brandon Ingram to surge past the Kings two nights ago. The Pelicans have been shooting the lights out but are playing with a rather slim margin for error in my opinion as they've gotten off 88, 78, 85, 82 and 87 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The Lakers can play some defense having held three of their last four and five of their last eight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that New Orleans is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games played away from home following a double-digit upset win, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-06-23 | 76ers -9.5 v. Wizards | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers are coming off consecutive losses but essentially played with their 'B' squad last time out against Boston (and still managed to cover the spread). Here, we should see Philadelphia back at full strength (or close to it) following a four-day layoff. To say Wizards opponents have been stuffing the boxscore would be an understatement. They've allowed 43 or more made field goals in 10 straight games with three opponents knocking down more than 50 field goals over that stretch. I worry about their offense in this particular spot against an elite 76ers defense (and a rested one at that). Note that Washington scored 120 or more points in each of its last three games but all of those came on the road. Interestingly, the Wiz have averaged just 112.9 points per game at home this season, nearly four points per game below their season scoring average. Philadelphia has held its last three opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts with only one of those foes managing to break 40 made field goals. On the road this season, the Sixers have employed a smothering defense, yielding just 40-of-85 shooting on average. Even in a game where Philadelphia didn't bring the proper level of defensive intensity against the Wizards back on November 6th (it allowed Washington to make good on 49-of-96 field goal attempts) it will won by 18 points. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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12-04-23 | Pelicans v. Kings -4 | 127-117 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over New Orleans at 10 pm et on Monday. New Orleans has lost three straight games, both SU and ATS, on the road and is a miserable 1-6 in its last seven contests away from home. The Kings should relish the opportunity to face the Pelicans here in the in-season tournament quarter-final round as it gives them a shot at revenge after dropping a pair of games in New Orleans earlier in the campaign. Sacramento is a different team now, healthy and able to hang with the league's elite, as we saw on Saturday against Denver. Noting that the Kings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here, we'll confidently back them tonight. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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12-02-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -5 | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. I like the Lakers to bounce back following Thursday's no-show in Oklahoma City. The Rockets had the wind taken out of their sails in a double-digit loss in Denver on Wednesday. Houston is now an even 8-8 on the season following consecutive losses to open this road trip. Note that the Rockets are now 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog, outscored by an average margin of 12.2 points in that situation. I believe there's still considerable regression in order for Houston as it is off to a better start to the season than most anticipated. The Lakers have been a mixed bag, but playing at home with rest and with a difficult matchup against the Suns on deck, I look for them to prevail here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-01-23 | Knicks +1.5 v. Raptors | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We're able to back the Knicks at a discount here thanks to them playing last night at home against Detroit. The trip to Toronto is anything but gruelling and I won't hesitate to fade the Raptors off Wednesday's win over the Suns. Toronto has strung together three straight home victories after starting the campaign with four losses in its first four games at Scotiabank Arena. Still, the Raptors are a losing team on the season at 9-10 and they'll be in tough here as they look for a third straight win over the Knicks for the first time since 2021-22. New York is a long-term winner on the road at 35-20 ATS in its last 55 contests in enemy territory. After this game the Knicks will have three days off before wrapping up this two-game road trip with a difficult game in Milwaukee. Look for New York to 'empty the tank' on Friday. Take New York (8*). |
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11-30-23 | Clippers v. Warriors -5 | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. Last night in Sacramento, the Clippers laid waste to the same Kings that just defeated the Warriors two nights ago. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Thursday as Golden State has the rest advantage. The Warriors are just 3-6 at home this season but I would certainly anticipate them turning that record around sooner rather than later. Note that despite last night's win, the Clippers remain just 3-6 on the road. Golden State is 21-8 in its last 29 home games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.6 points on average in that situation. The Warriors are also 27-14 ATS in their last 41 home games when listed as a favorite of six points or less. Take Golden State (8*). |
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11-29-23 | Jazz v. Grizzlies -4 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Utah at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are mired in an incredible shooting slump, knocking down 37 or fewer field goals in each of their last four games - all losses (1-3 ATS). Of course, they've also faced a tough schedule over that stretch, going up against the Celtics, Rockets (who are much improved defensively), Suns and Timberwolves. The good news is, the Jazz will come knocking on Wednesday and Utah has been one of the league's worst defensive teams this season. The Jazz check in having allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 44 or more field goals. On the flip side, Utah has connected on 38 or fewer field goals itself in four consecutive games. This is a double-revenge spot for the Grizzlies after the Jazz took each of the first two meetings this season. Also note that this is a critical spot for Memphis to bag a victory as it will head out on the road for a difficult back-to-back set in Dallas and Phoenix next. Take Memphis (8*). |
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11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -2 | Top | 123-124 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings enter this game with double-revenge on their minds having dropped both previous matchups with the Warriors this season. That comes on the heels of a hard-fought seven-game series last April. There has really been little separating these two teams, noting the most recent matchup went right down to the wire with the Warriors prevailing by a single point in San Francisco on November 1st. Since then, the Kings have gotten healthier with De'Aaron Fox returning to the lineup. They snapped a two-game slide with a dominant 124-111 win over the red hot Timberwolves in Minnesota on Friday. The Warriors are coming off a less impressive victory (but non-cover) at home against the rebuilding Spurs on Saturday. Note that Golden State is mired in an 0-7-1 ATS slide. I think their better opportunity to snap out of that funk comes on Thursday night at home against the Clippers. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 road games following a win. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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