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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford UNDER 55.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between USC and Stanford at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. While most folks would love to see a shootout between the Trojans and Cardinal in primetime on Saturday I’m not expect it to play out that way. USC may have overlooked UNLV a little in its home opener last week, as it was involved in a first half slugfest, in which it only managed one touchdown and four field goals. The Trojans didn’t score in the third quarter of that game but then exploded for 24 fourth quarter points, after they had pummeled the Rebels into submission. I don’t believe they’ll be able to wear down the Cardinal in the same way on Saturday afternoon. Similarly, Stanford only managed one first half touchdown against San Diego State last week. The Cardinal then put up a pair of third quarter touchdowns, but again, they’ll be facing a tougher challenge in the Trojans this week. I did like what I saw from the Stanford defense and feel they can carry over some of that positive momentum into this showdown. USC got torched by the UNLV ground game last Saturday but there’s no question that was a focus of emphasis during practice this week. I simply feel there are a lot of similarities between these two football teams, and that we’re in for a tightly-contested affair on Saturday night at The Farm. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Air Force v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 65.5 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Air Force and Florida Atlantic at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Boca Raton on Saturday afternoon. A couple of things heading into this matchup on Saturday afternoon; first the Air Force offense probably isn’t quite as good as it looked in last week’s 38-0 rout of FCS squad Stony Brook. Second, the Florida Atlantic defense probably isn’t as bad as it looked in last week’s 63-14 blowout loss against Oklahoma. I’m not counting on many explosive plays in this intriguing, under the radar affair on Saturday afternoon. The Falcons will undoubtedly be looking to chew some clock and stay within arm’s reach for four quarters while Florida Atlantic will simply be looking for a bounce-back victory – style points really don’t matter at this point, even if this is a Lane Kiffin-led football team. We’re dealing with an inflated total as I simply don’t believe we’ll see both offenses show up and fire on all cylinders in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Kansas v. Central Michigan UNDER 49.5 | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Kansas and Central Michigan at 3 pm et on Saturday. I was initially leaning to a play on Central Michigan minus the points in this game but I think the line has moved into unplayable territory with the Chippewas. Kansas’ road woes are well-documented to be sure and I certainly feel that is now factored into this line. The Jayhawks are coming off an overtime loss, at home, against FCS squad Nicholls State last week. That game was a bit of a slugfest with just 40 total points in regulation time. The Kansas offense will remain fairly one-dimensional with RB Khalil Herbert carrying much of the load. QB Peyton Bender showed flashes of brilliance, but those were few and far between as he completed just 19-of-35 passes. Things won’t get easier against a Central Michigan squad that hung tough against Kentucky, on the road no less, last week. The Chips forced four turnovers in that game but their offense was stagnant (albeit against a good defense). Note that their 20-point performance was helped along by a defensive touchdown. QB Tony Poljan will be a work-in-progress and I don’t expect big things from him against a Power 5 conference opponent on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Nevada v. Vanderbilt UNDER 62 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Nevada and Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this play sets up on Saturday. Nevada is coming off a 72-19 rout of FCS squad Portland State. The Wolf Pack absolutely exploded over the second and third quarters of that contest but what else was to be expected? After all, they were four-touchdown favorites entering that game with a total set in the 70’s. Here, Nevada will face a much stiffer challenge. And it’s certainly worth noting that the Wolf Pack were actually held out of the end zone offensively until the second quarter last week (they did return an interception for a touchdown in the first quarter). Also worth mentioning is the fact that they added a punt return touchdown and three of their offensive touchdowns went for 47 yards or more. I certainly don’t expect Vanderbilt to give the Wolf Pack so much open field on Saturday. Vandy put up a 35-7 win over Middle Tennessee State last week – an impressive win to be sure as MTSU is a quality opponent (Vandy was favored by only three points). Much like Nevada, the Commodores were also buoyed by a defensive touchdown last week. Note that their offense put up just 14 points through the first three quarters against MTSU. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Arizona v. Houston UNDER 72 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 63 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll go the contrarian route on Saturday afternoon as Arizona heads to Houston for an early start non-conference showdown. Most are expecting a high-scoring affair but I expect a different story to unfold. Keep in mind, these two teams met last September in Arizona and totaled just 35 points in a three-point Cougars victory. Arizona is in a bit of a tough spot here, coming off an unexpected home loss to BYU to open the season last week. The Wildcats scored only 23 points in that loss, with 13 of those coming in the fourth quarter. They didn't manage to put any points on the board in the first or third quarters in that contest. Their first touchdown didn't come until the final minute of the first half. While the Arizona offense will undoubtedly improve as the season goes on, I don't see a big bounce-back performance from that unit here. Houston rolled to a 45-27 victory over Rice last week but it's worth noting that the Cougars didn't put a touchdown on the board until midway through the second quarter, and that was against a weak Owls defense. I do feel that QB D'Eriq King's three-touchdown (through the air - he added one on the ground) day had more to do with taking what Rice gave him than anything else. I expect him to face a tougher challenge against a Wildcats defense that did hold its own against BYU last week. The early start doesn't hurt our cause here as this game will kick off just after 11 am local time. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 73 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF Friday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and SMU at 8 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring affairs last week, albeit with much different outcomes as TCU rolled past Southern and SMU had its doors blown off by North Texas. It is worth noting that TCU was a 49.5-point favorite against Southern and it did take the Horned Frogs half a quarter to find the end zone. QB Shawn Robinson has taken over the reins and certainly played well, but I don't believe we'll see this offense firing on all cylinders for at least a couple of weeks. SMU didn't get on the scoreboard until the fourth quarter against a very beatable North Texas defense last week. On a positive note, the Mustangs did allow only one offensive touchdown in the entire first half against the Mean Green Eagles. They were facing a seasoned veteran QB in Mason Fine in that contest, noting that he threw for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago. The Mustangs will actually be taking a step down in class in some sense as far as quarterbacks go against Robinson. Last year's matchup between these two teams ended up reaching 92 total points. However, it's worth noting that the last three matchups on this field have totaled 56 points or less with the most recent totaling only 36 points in 2016. There's no rush to play this total as we'll likely see it climb by at least a couple of points before kickoff on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55 | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Florida State at 8 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in this early season ACC showdown. I'm not sure where all of the offense is going to come from. Yes, Florida State ended last season on an offensive tear, having scored at least 38 points in each of its final four games. Keep in mind, it was favored by at least 13 points in three of those contests. The Seminoles should face a tougher challenge from the Virginia Tech defense here. Meanwhile, the Hokies had a really tough time getting anything going offensively a year ago. In stark contrast to the 'Noles, Virginia Tech scored just 107 points total over its last six games. This weekend has been all about the 'overs' but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-18 | Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 47 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Notre Dame at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Everyone would love to see a shootout between these two storied programs in primetime to kick off the college football season on Saturday but I believe we're in for more of a defensive slugfest. Both defenses are loaded with returning talent and should be well ahead of the offenses at this early stage of the season. We're talking near NFL-level talent on both defenses, while both offenses have plenty of question marks and holes to fill due to injuries and otherwise. The game itself looks like nothing more than a toss-up to me as it will simply come down to which team can make the big play late to seal a victory. Rather than sweat the pointspread, I'll go with the 'under' and call for two elite defenses to play like it on Saturday night in South Bend. Take the under (10*). |
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08-25-18 | Hawaii v. Colorado State UNDER 57 | 43-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Colorado State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Colorado State blew Hawaii out of the water in a 51-21 victory last year but I'm not expecting a similar story to unfold here in the 2018 opener for both teams. Both the Rainbow Warriors and Rams have undergone considerable changes since last year, perhaps nowhere more glaring than at the QB position. I certainly don't expect to see either team bombing away on Saturday night. Hawaii is switching to a run-and-shoot offense this year and there will undoubtedly be growing pains with new faces virtually across the board at all the skill positions on offense. Meanwhile, Colorado State will need to fill the void left by WR Michael Gallup, who has moved onto the Dallas Cowboys. K.J. Carta-Samuels is the Rams new quarterback, having transferred from Washington, where he saw limited action. While I do believe that he can have success in this offense, I'm not sure we'll see this offense running at full capacity right out of the gate. Both teams struggled defensively a year ago, but both are optimistic that they can improve in that department here in 2018. Colorado State in particular saw its defense progress considerably during camp and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over of that here on Saturday night. While we're dealing with a considerably lower total than we saw in last year's meeting, the move is certainly warranted. Keep an eye on the number as it could bump up prior to kickoff on Saturday as the betting public seems to have eyes on a potential shootout. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39 | 7-38 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a very low total by today’s NFL standards in this one, but I believe it’s warranted. The Vikings were ultimately involved in a high-scoring affair on paper in last week’s thrilling victory over the Saints, as the two teams combined to score 53 points, with 19 of those points coming in the final 3:01 of the fourth quarter. Up until that point, that game could have been classified as a defensive slugfest. Here, I’m expecting more of the same, minus the late explosion. Of course, the venue has to be considered here as the game will be played outdoors rather in the perfect offensive conditions we saw in Minnesota. I expect both teams to lean heavily on their ground attack, with a few shots through the air sprinkled in. We’re talking about two elite defensive teams, and it’s not as if we’re going to see a sudden identity shift with a trip to the Super Bowl hanging in the balance. Both quarterbacks deserve all the credit they’ve been receiving this week, but I don’t think we’ll see either squad put it all on their shoulders in this spot. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Jacksonville and New England at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ on Sunday afternoon in Foxborough. Both of these teams lit up the scoreboard in their respective Divisional Round games last weekend. The Jaguars were buoyed by a number of Steelers turnovers and took advantage of excellent field position throughout the game, an advantage they’re not likely to enjoy against the Pats this Sunday. Meanwhile, New England faced no resistance against a middle of the road Titans defense last Saturday night. Jacksonville’s defense is undoubtedly on another level by comparison. That’s not to say they’ll shut down the Pats vaunted offense by any means, but we don’t really need them to with the total set where it is. While the New England offense gets most of the credit, we’ve seen the defense come up big time and time again and I expect no different here as they take away Jacksonville’s best offensive weapon, RB Leonard Fournette, and force QB Blake Bortles into obvious passing situations. I believe there’s a good chance we see the winning side score in the 24-27 point range here, which puts us in good position to cash our ticket. Take the under (10*). |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon. The Jags certainly didn't put their best foot forward offensively against the Bills last Sunday, QB Blake Bortles in particular. However, they still managed to win the game, and now they have a shot at accomplishing something truly great in Pittsburgh. I look for a much better showing by Bortles and the offense in general. Keep in mind, RB Leonard Fournette ran wild against the Steelers back in early October, gaining 181 yards and punching in a pair of touchdowns on the ground. Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions against the Jags defense on that afternoon, but I expect a much different story to unfold this time around. Big Ben will have all-world WR Antonio Brown back at his disposal, and with Martavis Bryant stepping up down the stretch as well, this aerial attack is truly loaded. We're dealing with a low total, but I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This is a low total when it comes down to it but I'm not sure it's been set low enough. The Falcons are the best 'under' bet in the league this season. Despite all the talent they possess, their offense continues to struggle to find consistency. There's little reason to expect them to suddenly light it up against an elite, well-rested Eagles defense on Saturday. On the flip side, I have little faith in the Philadelphia offense with Nick Foles at the helm. Like the Falcons, they do have plenty of talent, but without Carson Wentz, I don't believe they're going anywhere. The Falcons defense is an underrated unit to be sure, and I'm confident they'll show up again in the divisional round. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 45 | 26-23 | Loss | -101 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Alabama and Georgia at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We saw a real contrast in styles in last week's semi-final matchups as Georgia was involved in a wild 54-48 overtime win over Oklahoma while Alabama dominated defensively in a 24-6 rout of Clemson. I'm not anticipating a shootout in the national championship game on Monday as these two SEC foes should be involved in a tightly-contested affair from start to finish. Save for a 56-point outburst against FCS squad Mercer, Alabama hasn't really been all that explosive offensively, scoring 31 points or less in its four other games over the last two months. Georgia is a better defensive team than it showed in last week's victory over the Sooners. On the flip side, I'm confident the Crimson Tide defense can hold its own against another terrific offense here. While Georgia freshman QB Jake Fromm has been outstanding this season, you have to give the edge to the Tide defense in this particular matchup. We're dealing with a low total, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs in Wild Card action yesterday but I expect to see a different story unfold as the Bills battle the Jags in this one. There are a lot of questions around whether either of these playoff rookie quarterbacks can perform on the postseason stage. I'm actually confident we'll see both turn in solid performances. It's easily overlooked that the Jags offense actually came to life down the stretch with the emergence of a number of young WR talents. On the flip side, Bills QB Tyrod Taylor has played with a chip on his shoulder since being benched earlier in the campaign. While I have respect for both defenses, I don't see them ruling the day on Sunday. We're working with a low total in this spot. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tennessee and Kansas City at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ as the NFL Playoffs kick off in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. While the Chiefs did close out the regular season with their offensively seemingly humming along, the fact is, neither of these offenses was all that consistent this season. Note that the Titans haven’t allowed more than 27 points in a game since Week 11, when they suffered a 40-17 loss in Pittsburgh, playing just four days after a 24-20 home win over the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed 15 points or less in their last three games that mattered (they gave up 24 points in last week’s meaningless win over the Broncos – we won with the ‘over’ in that contest). There’s really no need to overthink things here. I’m just not sure that either quarterback really gets rolling, nor do I believe the ground games will run wild in the first of this weekend’s four Wild Card matchups. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Sunday afternoon. I'm confident we'll see both offenses open things up in this somewhat meaningless Week 17 matchup. The Chiefs will give rookie Patrick Mahomes a chance under center and I believe we'll see him perform well. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has been a mess all season long but can take a step toward next season with a strong finish in front of the home faithful. Both defenses have had their ups and downs this season, but in reality there have been more downs than ups. Familiarity generally lends itself to lower scoring football games, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone too low with this total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between USC and Ohio State at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Friday night's Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes are the favorite in this matchup, and rightfully so. However, I don't expect the Trojans to roll over in this one. USC comes into this game having won five straight, scoring at least 28 points in all five of those contests. They'll be up against it here as the Buckeyes possess a tremendous defense, but not an impenetrable one. Meanwhile, USC's defense hasn't impressed me at all, and as long as Ohio State brings the right mindset into this game, and I believe it will, it should have little trouble marching up and down the field. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 33 points, but that has little relevance here as that game took place back in 2009. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU UNDER 49 | 37-39 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Stanford at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Thursday's Alamo Bowl between Stanford and TCU. We have two quality defenses going head-to-head here and neither offense really closed out the regular season firing on all cylinders. I can't help but think the defenses will remain ahead of the offenses as they prepare to go toe-to-toe on Thursday night. A key here will be the Horned Frogs run defense, which has held the opposition to only 2.9 yards per rush this season. If they can keep the Cardinal ground game in check they should be in the driver's seat in this one. With that being said, I'm confident the Stanford defense will hold its own against a wildly inconsistent Horned Frogs offense. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa UNDER 45 | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Boston College at 5:15 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in the Pinstripe Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. Iowa closed out the regular season with a 56-point outburst against Nebraska but now following a full month off, I look for the Hawkeyes to return to form so to speak. Keep in mind, this is a team that had been held to 17 points or less in four of its previous five games prior to that rout of Nebraska. Like Iowa, Boston College also closed out the regular season on a high note offensively, scoring 81 points in its final two contests. But the Eagles were also prone to offensive droughts over the course of the season. I'm not convinced the winning side eclipses the 20-point mark in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-26-17 | Northern Illinois v. Duke OVER 47 | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 45 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Northern Illinois at 5:15 pm et on Tuesday. We have the perfect conditions for a shootout between the Blue Devils and Huskies on Tuesday afternoon. Duke has been one of the best 'under' bets in the nation this season, posting a 3-9 o/u mark. I like the fact that Blue Devils closed out the regular season with back-to-back wins, scoring 43 and 31 points in the process. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois was rolling offensively for much of the latter part of the regular season, but struggled in its finale against Central Michigan, on the road in less than ideal conditions. I expect to see the Huskies bounce back here. Note that the 'over' has cashed in five of their last six games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans OVER 44.5 | 34-6 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Houston on Christmas Day. This game has shootout written all over it. Last week, the Texans fell behind early and never recovered, scoring only seven points in a blowout loss in Jacksonville. I do expect to see them bounce back against an undermanned Steelers defense, however. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was held down, relatively speaking, by New England last Sunday but should have little trouble responding here in Houston. Look for a big game from Le'Veon Bell, not to mention the Steelers receiving corps, even without Antonio Brown. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 42 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The betting marketplace still hasn't caught up with these two rejuvenated offenses, at least considering this relatively low posted total. The Jags have seemingly come out of nowhere to become a contender in the AFC this season and while their defense has led the way for much of the campaign, it has been their offense that has really shouldered the load lately. A host of emerging talents at wide receiver have helped lift up QB Blake Bortles and I expect to see continuation of that strong play here in San Francisco. Meanwhile, the 49ers have found their QB of the future in Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, he's proving to be their QB of the present as well. This will be Garoppolo's toughest test since taking over the starting job for the Niners, but I'm confident he'll exceed expectations. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming OVER 45 | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Central Michigan and Wyoming at 4 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Boise on Friday afternoon. I simply feel the oddsmakers have gone too low with this total. Wyoming didn't necessarily put its best foot forward offensively during the regular season. The Cowboys stunk on that side of the football for much of the campaign. That was in spite of the Cowboys having a potential number one overall NFL draft pick in QB Josh Allen. Allen missed the team's final two contests, but is expected to return here, and could make amends so to speak, perhaps improving his stock with a strong performance against the Chippewas. Central Michigan closed out the regular season on a high note, riding a five-game winning streak, scoring points in bunches along the way. While the layoff won't help their cause here, I do expect them to find some success moving the football and putting points on the board against Wyoming. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International UNDER 57.5 | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and Florida International at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Thursday's Gasparilla Bowl in St. Petersburg. Temple finished the regular season on a high note, securing three wins in its final four games, scoring at least 34 points in each of those wins. However, they haven't played a game since November 25th so any of that positive momentum has essentially been wiped out. Likewise, Florida International scored a whopping 104 points in its final two regular season games. In fact, the 'over' went a perfect 4-0 in the Panthers final four contests. That only serves to give us a more favorable total here, however. I don't feel that the quarterback play on either side warrants much confidence here. We're dealing with a lofty total and I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-19-17 | Akron v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 65 | 3-50 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Tuesday's Boca Raton Bowl. Neither team has had much trouble scoring this season but that has provided us with a lofty total to work with here. Akron's defense has been extremely opportunistic with 19 interceptions and four touchdowns on the season. Florida Atlantic is certainly well aware of the Zips knack for creating turnovers, however, and Lane Kiffin has had plenty of time to drive that point home to his players. The Owls rely heavily on sophomore RB Devin Singletary, who racked up nearly 1,800 yards and 29 touchdowns on the ground this season. You can be sure Akron has watched plenty of game film of Singletary leading up to this one and will do everything it can to at least slow him down. I believe we'll see plenty of long drives in this one, ultimately chewing enough clock to keep the final score 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I don't believe either of these teams will have trouble moving the football on Monday night. The Falcons stumbled last week against New Orleans, but still managed to prevail in a rather ugly 20-17 affair. I expect them to bounce back in a big way offensively here - QB Matt Ryan in particular. Meanwhile, the Bucs have had some success putting points on the board against the Falcons, even if it hasn't resulted in much success in the win column. Note that Tampa Bay has scored at least 20 points in four straight games. With that being said, it has lost three games in a row and will be highly-motivated to respond here. Keep an eye on Bucs RB Peyton Barber in particular in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-17 | Packers v. Panthers UNDER 47 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. I just don't see this one turning into a shootout, despite the high posted total. The Packers will have Aaron Rodgers back under center but how effective will he be following a long injury layoff? Meanwhile, the Panthers put up 30+ points against a good Vikings defense last week but that was more a case of Minnesota beating itself as far as I'm concerned. QB Cam Newton remains wildly inconsistent throwing the football and he'll be facing a highly-motivated Packers defense here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-17 | Oregon v. Boise State OVER 61 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 43 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Boise State and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. It seemed like Oregon got its groove back in its final two regular season games, putting up a whopping 117 points in blowout wins over Arizona and Oregon State. Mind you, both of those victories came in Autzen, but with a relatively short layoff I’m confident the Ducks can pick up right where they left off against an admittedly tough Boise State squad on Saturday in Las Vegas. Boise State was involved in a defensive slugfest against Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference championship game two weeks ago. That wasn’t all that surprising as the two teams had just gone head-to-head the previous week. Here, we have a matchup between two teams that are not nearly as familiar with one another. Prior to those two games against the Bulldogs, the Broncos had scored 41, 41, 59 and 44 points over a four-game stretch – all victories. In fact, they had reeled off seven consecutive wins. I’m anticipating a spirited, high-scoring affair between two teams that may be disappointed to be playing in a pre-Christmas Bowl game, but that will put on a show nonetheless. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-17 | North Texas v. Troy UNDER 62.5 | 30-50 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Troy and North Texas at 1 pm et on Saturday. I think the main reason we’re looking at such a high total in this matchup between two former Sun Belt Conference rivals is the fact that it will be played on the ‘fast track’ at the Superdome in New Orleans. While that should play a factor in handicapping this matchup, it’s not the real story. We have a matchup between two coaching staffs that are very familiar with one another. Perhaps the offensive standout in the game is North Texas QB Mason Fine and the Trojans are certainly familiar with him, having recruited him hard prior to him electing to join the Mean Green Eagles. Troy quietly put together one of the best defensive campaigns of any team in college football and shouldn’t flinch in this matchup. Meanwhile, North Texas will be highly motivated after getting routed by Florida Atlantic in its conference title game. The pointspread is relatively low for a reason. I believe we’ll see a competitive affair between these two squads in a game that stays ‘under’ the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 47.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I just don't see where the stops come from on Monday night. The Patriots defense was terrific in Buffalo last week, but after eight straight games allowing 17 points or less, I believe it suffers a bit of a letdown here. Offensively, the Pats will be without Rob Gronkowski but I expect them to continue to churn along, with Tom Brady in particular in line for a big week after being held out of the end zone last Sunday. The Dolphins have had a tough season for sure, but have still managed to score 20 points or more in four of their last five games. Defensively, they've been a mess. They did perform well last week, but that was against the Broncos. Different story here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. When you think of this matchup one of the first things that probably comes to mind is hard-nosed defensive football. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Pittsburgh, however. The Ravens have scored 90 points in reeling off three straight wins. Their defense has performed well over that stretch, but they've done so against three struggling offenses in the Packers, Texans and Lions. We won with the 'under' in the Steelers come-from-behind Monday night win in Cincinnati. Here, I feel their defense takes a real hit with the absence of Ryan Shazier. Don't count on this being the same defensive unit we saw in the second half Monday night, when they were fueled by emotion after losing Shazier. Last year's late season matchup here in Pittsburgh totaled 58 points. Expect another high-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy UNDER 46 | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. Year after year, we play the 'under' in the Army-Navy game and year after year, we cash our ticket. Nothing changes here in 2017. Snow is in the forecast for Philadelphia on Saturday. Were we talking about two passing teams I might hesitate to back the 'under', but in a run-dominated affair, I'm confident weather won't help the offenses one bit. After giving up no more than 28 points in any game during a six-game winning streak, the Black Knights were torched for 52 at North Texas last time out. Expect a bounce-back performance against a familiar foe here. Meanwhile, Navy had a few tough outings defensively, but closed out the regular season giving up just 24 points against Notre Dame and Houston, on the road no less. The clock will be moving all afternoon long, and I look for a couple of key red zone turnovers to ultimately help keep this one 'under' the posted total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 52 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Atlanta at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season after last year's two matchups sailed 'over' the total. I expect a different story to unfold this time around, however. The Falcons offense hasn't been nearly as prolific as it was last season. Save for a two-game stretch against Seattle and Tampa Bay in November, they simply haven't been scoring touchdowns with any consistency. Against a divisional opponent on Thursday night I don't think things get any easier. Meanwhile, the Saints have been scoring points in bunches, but have also faced some vulnerable defenses in recent weeks. Again, I think the familiarity of the Falcons defense with the Saints offense does come into play here. This is always pegged as a shootout, but the fact is the 'under' is 5-3-1 in the last nine meetings in the series. Take the under (10*). |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 8:30 pm et on Monday. Prior to last night's low-scoring affair in Seattle, 'overs' had been on quite a run in primetime NFL action. Here, I'm going to back the 'under' as two familiar AFC North foes do battle in a key December matchup. Familiarity is the main logic behind this play. Both teams know what to expect from their opponent, and it certainly helps having a little extra time to prepare for this matchup. The Steelers could be without WR Antonio Brown, although I'm making this play assuming he suits up. On the flip side, we've seen some signs of life from the Bengals offense but I'm still not sold that they'll be able to move the football with any consistency against a serviceable Steelers defense. This total is a bit high in my estimation. Take the under (10*). |
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