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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-27-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 51 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Virginia at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. This was a low-scoring affair last year as Virginia won by a 20-14 score. I’m anticipating another relatively low-scoring game on Saturday. North Carolina woke from its offensive slumber to get involved in a wild, 40-37 double-overtime loss at Syracuse last week. Keep in mind, that game totaled just 54 points in regulation time. It was also played in ideal conditions inside the Carrier Dome. Prior to that, the Tar Heels had been held to 29 points combined over their last two games. Now they go up against a tough defense in Virginia, as the Cavaliers have allowed only 27 points over their last two games, with those coming in tough matchups against Miami and Duke. Virginia certainly hasn’t gotten off to a 5-2 start on the strength of its offense. Last Saturday against Duke, the Cavaliers scored a couple of touchdowns in the game’s first 16 minutes but then didn’t find the end zone again until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. Last week we saw North Carolina hold a potent Syracuse offense out of the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half. The week previous the Tar Heels allowed a touchdown in the game’s first two minutes against Virginia Tech but then not another until over midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-18 | Army v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 48 | 37-22 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Army and Eastern Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Army’s overtime win at Miami-Ohio last week, but it’s certainly worth noting that the game did stay under the total in regulation time. Army has now put up a whopping 125 points over its last three contests but that’s had more to do with that overtime result, as well as the level of opposition the Black Knights have faced than anything else. Prior to last week’s game, Army had gone up against Buffalo and San Jose State in its previous two games, not exactly two defensive juggernauts. Here, it will face a tough challenge against one of the nation’s most underrated and overlooked defensive teams, on the road no less. Eastern Michigan has held five straight opponents to 27 points or less, despite facing some tough competition over that stretch. We saw a bit of an offensive explosion from the Eagles last week as they put up 42 points in a rout of Ball State. That’s been the exception rather than the rule, however. Prior to that outburst, Eastern Michigan had scored 28 points or less in six consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-18 | Wake Forest v. Louisville UNDER 66.5 | 56-35 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Wake Forest and Louisville at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ at Cardinal Stadium on Saturday afternoon. This lofty total has a lot to do with the fact that Wake Forest has been involved in a number of wild, high-scoring affairs this season while Louisville has gotten into a couple of high-scoring games of its own in recent weeks. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Wake Forest has given up a whopping 101 points in dropping each of its last two games. With that being said, the Demon Deacons draw a favorable matchup here as Louisville has been held to 24 points or less in each of its last four games. Defensively, we saw the Cardinals give up a couple of touchdowns in the first six minutes of the game against Boston College last week but then stiffened up from there, not allowing another touchdown until the third quarter. It was at the very least improvement over their previous game as they were throttled by Georgia Tech, 66-31. On the flip side, we’ve seen Wake Forest’s offense sputter lately, scoring just 20 points combined in its last two games. I’m just not convinced we’re in for a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 58 | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana Tech and Florida Atlantic at 6:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Boca Raton on Friday night. This was a high-scoring matchup last year with FAU prevailing by a 48-23 score on the strength of a big game from RB Devin Singletary. We've seen Singletary continue to rack up touchdowns this season but hasn't been nearly as dominant on the ground, averaging just 4.5 yards per rush after gaining 6.4 ypr last season. Opponents simply aren't respecting the Owls passing game the way they have in recent years, instead stacking the box against FAU's dynamic rusher. Note that Louisiana Tech checks in allowing just 3.8 yards per rush this season. The Owls have allowed a whopping 64 points over their last two games but do find themselves in a favorable bounce-back spot against a Bulldogs squad that has topped out at 31 points against FBS opponents this season. Louisiana Tech has actually put up 31 points in each of its last two games, but those two contests came against UTSA and UTEP, two weaker opponents than the one they'll face on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | 23-42 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Dolphins have surprisingly been involved in back-to-back high-scoring 'over' results, which comes on the heels of consecutive 'under' outcomes. I'm not anticipating a lot of offense in Thursday night's game as Miami will need to lean heavily on its defense to stay competitive with cluster injuries at the wide receiver position on offense. The Texans have done an excellent job of taking away opposing running games this season and should be able to do the same against Miami, forcing QB Brock Osweiler to beat them through the air, something I'm not sure he's capable of with both Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills ruled out due to injuries. The Miami defense is certainly beatable but the Texans haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, having put up 20 points or less in three straight games. They've scored 22 points or less in six of seven games this season. Texans QB DeShaun Watson has been serviceable this season but lacks the mobility we've been accustomed to seeing from him due to a myriad of injuries. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-18 | Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 66 | 14-58 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday. As is the case with many of these projected Thursday night shootouts, I get the sense this one may fizzle out in Morgantown. Baylor has seen the 'over' cash in five of its seven games so far this season but is coming off a low-scoring affair against Texas, resulting in a 23-17 loss. In fact, two of the Bears last four games have totaled 40 points or less so track meets have by no means been the norm for this squad this season. Save for a blowout loss at Oklahoma on September 29th, the Bears have actually held their own defensively of late. Even in a game where they allowed 34 points (in a winning effort) against Kansas State, they gave up just two touchdowns through the first three quarters. Like Baylor, West Virginia is coming off its bye week, which came on the heels of an ugly 30-14 loss at Iowa State. After a red hot start to the season we've seen the Mountaineers offense cool somewhat, relatively speaking in the wild, often high-scoring Big 12. Even against a hapless Kansas defense two games back, the Mountaineers scored three first half touchdowns but then didn't find the end zone again until the final play of the third quarter. We have seen stretches where the West Virginia offense has gone stagnant this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced 74 points, managing to eclipse the total. With that said, we haven't seen back-to-back 'over' results in this series since 2012 and 2013. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-18 | Toledo v. Western Michigan UNDER 68 | Top | 51-24 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
NCAAF MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toledo and Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have been involved in their share of shootouts this season but I don't necessarily see one developing on Thursday night. Since exploding for 52 points against a hapless Bowling Green defense, Toledo has been held to just 43 points combined in its last two games - both losses. The Rockets managed only two first half touchdowns in last Saturday's loss to Buffalo, and those came on 70 and 80-yard plays - the type of plays I don't expect to see out of them against an improving Western Michigan defense. The Broncos were involved in an unsurprising track meet against Bowling Green two weeks ago but followed that up with a defensive gem against Central Michigan last Saturday, winning that game by a 35-10 score. Western Michigan scored three first half touchdowns in that game before going scoreless until the final minute of the third quarter. Even in their 42-point outburst against Bowling Green, the Broncos didn't find the end zone until over midway through the second quarter. Toledo rolled past Western Michigan by a 37-10 score in last year's meeting. I don't believe the Rockets will come close to approaching that level of output this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 58 | 10-45 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. These lofty totals have become much more commonplace in NFL action this season after a number of years where we would see totals top out at 54 points or so. In this case, I believe the high posted total is warranted as this matchup sets up as a shootout. The Chiefs are of course rolling on offense right now and unlikely to be slowed down by a Bengals defense that hasn't done much to stop opposing running or passing games this season. Even with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict, the Bengals are still giving up just shy of five yards per rush. Meanwhile, they've been getting shredded on a weekly basis by opposing passing games. The Bengals offense remains somewhat underrated with QB Andy Dalton enjoying a renaissance year under center. RB Joe Mixon returned to the field last week and should contribute after being a virtual non-factor against the Steelers last week. We won with the 'under' in last week's game against the Steelers, as we anticipated more of a physical, defensive tone between two defensive rivals. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 52 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
NFL NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Rams last game – a relatively low-scoring win in Denver last week. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Los Angeles will certainly be taking a step down in class against a 49ers defense that did nothing to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the somewhat limited Packers offense on Monday night. In fact, the Niners have had a tough time slowing down anyone this season. The good news is, the San Francisco offense continues to evolve with C.J. Beathard under center. He certainly looked comfortable running the offense in Green Bay on Monday night and while he faces a slightly tougher test here, the fact is the Rams defense has been below average, and will be playing on the road for the third straight game. With RB Matt Breida, TE George Kittle and WR Marquise Goodwin, the Niners have more than their share of offensive weapons. Meanwhile, the Rams will be without WR Cooper Kupp but shouldn’t miss a beat offensively. QB Jared Goff is coming off a subpar performance last Sunday but should bounce back in a big way here. And of course RB Todd Gurley should run wild as he’s done virtually every week this season. This is a high posted total but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears OVER 48 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I believe there’s strong potential for a back-and-forth shootout in this game as both teams come in off high-scoring affairs last Sunday. The Patriots offense continues to round into form. They’re fresh off a 43-point effort against the hapless Chiefs defense last Sunday night so they’ll definitely be facing a tougher challenge here. With that being said, I believe they’re in good position to keep building against a Bears defense that got completely worn down in the Miami heat last Sunday afternoon. It’s worth noting that Khalil Mack is questionable for the Bears as he deals with an ankle injury. I really like the emergence of RB Sony Michel in the Patriots offense, not to mention the way WR Julian Edelman has worked his way back into the fold. We should only see the Pats offense continue to improve from here. Meanwhile, the Bears offense has also been evolving nicely with QB Mitchell Trubisky settling in and doing an excellent job of spreading the football around to his multitude of weapons. Over his last two games, Trubisky has thrown for well over 600 yards and nine touchdowns (mind you much of that success came against the lowly Bucs defense two games back). In this particular matchup, Chicago should find success with their short passing game. Note that the Patriots have given up at least 24 points in four of six games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets OVER 45.5 | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon as the Vikings find themselves in a terrific spot to explode offensively. The Jets haven’t been able to generate a pass rush, nor have they don’t a consistently good job defending the pass. That leaves them in a very difficult position trying to slow down a Vikings offense that save for its pass protection has been truly electric this season. The question is whether the Jets can do enough offensively to help this total along. The good news is they do come in with plenty of confidence following back-to-back big offensive showings against the Broncos and Colts. They’ll face a tougher test here, but should be able to turn some drives into points, noting that the Vikings did lose one of their most underrated defenders in cornerback Mike Hughes to a torn ACL last week. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs OVER 52 | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. There’s little reason to expect anything other than a shootout in this Sunday afternoon matchup in Tampa. The Browns offense has the potential to go off, just as virtually every opponent of the dreadful Bucs defense has this season. Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith was fired earlier this week but it’s tough to envision much changing here. It’s worth noting that the Tampa Bay defense is without two of its best defenders in DT Gerald McCoy and DE Vinny Curry. Browns QB Baker Mayfield should have plenty of time and room to operate and has just enough talent at the WR and TE position to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard here. We saw the Bucs offense thrive, as expected, in Atlanta last Sunday (we won with the ‘over’) and while it certainly draws a tougher matchup here, I’m still anticipating plenty of scoring drives, noting that the Browns defense suffered a big drop-off in performance in their last road game, a wild 45-42 loss in Oakland. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State OVER 67.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oregon and Washington State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I fully expect this to turn into the shootout that most are anticipating on Saturday night in Pullman. Oregon was involved in a slightly lower-scoring game than it is accustomed to last week, posting an impressive 30-27 home win over Washington. That improved the Ducks to 5-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in a real blown opportunity at home against Stanford back on September 22nd. I liked the way the Ducks persevered on offense against the Huskies last Saturday as they still managed to score 30 points despite an off day from QB Justin Herbert. He threw for only 202 yards on 18 completions in that game but should bounce back with a big performance against a very beatable Washington State defense here. After starting the season with a couple of strong defensive showings in cupcake matchups against Wyoming and San Jose State, we’ve seen the Cougars struggle to keep the opposition out of the end zone lately, allowing 124 points over their last four games, good for 31 points per game. Offensively, Washington State is a juggernaut. It comes in rested and ready off its bye week, after scoring a whopping 56 points in a wild, shootout victory over Oregon State on October 6th. QB Gardner Minshew has put up video game numbers this season, throwing for over 400 yards in four of his last five games, totaling 16 passing touchdowns and just three interceptions over that stretch. The Oregon defense has been good but not great, despite facing few truly explosive offenses this season. Keep in mind, the Ducks have only played one of their first six games away from home. In their lone road contest, they allowed 24 points against a relatively weak Cal offense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Kansas v. Texas Tech OVER 58.5 | 16-48 | Win | 100 | 42 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas and Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon. Kansas has been a perennial Big 12 doormat and this year appears to be no different as it enters this matchup off three straight blowout losses to open the conference slate. We have at least seen some signs of life from the Jayhawks offense, however, and I do believe they catch the Red Raiders in a favorable spot here, as Texas Tech is coming off one of its best defensive showings of the season in a big 17-14 road win at TCU last Thursday. It’s certainly well within the realm of possibility that the Red Raiders could let down their guard in this layup spot. Kansas has continued to bomb away in losing efforts against Oklahoma State and West Virginia over its last two games, scoring a combined 50 points in the process. Keep in mind, we also saw the Jayhawks explode for 55 points in a matchup with Rutgers earlier this season. While that wasn’t all that impressive when you consider the opposition, the fact is, the Jayhawks haven’t been able to generate that level of offense against anyone in recent years. Of course, we know that the Red Raiders are capable of on offense. Prior to last week’s defensive battle against TCU (we won with the ‘under’ in that game), they had scored 215 points over their last four games, good for an average of well north of 50 points per contest. The last time we saw Kansas, it gave up three touchdowns against West Virginia before the game was 19 minutes old. The Jayhawks have given up a whopping 86 points over their last two games. This matchup produced 84 points last October as Texas Tech rolled to a 65-19 victory. I’m anticipating a bit more competitive of a game this time around, which lends itself to another high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 50 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Colorado and Washington at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We’ve won with the ‘under’ in each of Colorado’s last two games and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Buffaloes turned in an awful second quarter last week against USC, allowing three touchdowns. They didn’t give up another offensive touchdown in the game’s other three quarters, however. Two weeks ago they gave up a touchdown in each of the first three quarters against Arizona State but then held the Sun Devils off the scoreboard from 13 minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Washington is coming off a couple of higher-scoring games than it is accustomed to over the last two weeks. With that being said, the Huskies have scored more than 35 points in a game just once this season, and that came against FCS squad North Dakota back on September 8th. They’re not an offensive juggernaut by any means but do possess a formidable defense. Even last week, Washington didn’t allow a touchdown against Oregon until the final two minutes of the first quarter and then not again until the last 15 seconds of the first half. The Huskies have given up 21 points or less in five of seven games this season. This matchup resulted in a blowout last year as Washington rolled to a 37-10 victory. I’m confident we’ll see the Buffaloes defense hold up much better this time around but I’m not convinced we’ll see Colorado break through against a terrific Huskies defense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-18 | NC State v. Clemson OVER 56 | 7-41 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between N.C. State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Wolfpack and Tigers to battle in an ACC showdown of unbeatens on Saturday afternoon. N.C. State is off to a surprising 5-0 start but did dodge a matchup with West Virginia on September 15th as that game was cancelled. I do like what I’ve seen from the N.C. State offense, particularly its consistency. Note that the Wolfpack have scored 24, 41, 37, 35 and 28 points. They’ve seemingly been getting more efficient with each passing week. Clemson does boast an elite defense but was certainly made to look even better by a disjointed Wake Forest offense last time out. Note that the Tigers have allowed 20+ points in half of their games this season, only holding Furman, Georgia Southern and aforementioned Wake Forest to fewer points. Offensively, there’s little reason to expect any sort of regression from Clemson coming off its bye week. QB Trevor Lawrence continues to get acclimated to the offense while the Tigers run game has been positive dominant. Against Wake Forest, Clemson had three rushers total at least 128 yards on the ground with a touchdown, combining for six scores in total. Last year’s matchup between these two teams was a shootout, with the Tigers prevailing by a 38-31 score. While there’s a chance the Tigers manhandle the Wolfpack offense here, I believe we’re dealing with a reasonable enough total to take a shot with the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Miami-OH v. Army UNDER 48 | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami-Ohio and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in West Point on Saturday afternoon. Miami-Ohio has put up some gawdy offensive numbers lately, scoring 38, 39, 41 and 31 points over its last four games. That’s had more to do with the MAC matchups the Redhawks have faced over that stretch than anything else, however. I certainly don’t expect them to enjoy that level of success on the road against a good Army defense on Saturday. On the flip side, I do believe we’ll see Miami-Ohio continue to thrive defensively. It has given up a grand total of 23 points over its last two games. Even in wild, high-scoring games against Bowling Green and Western Michigan back in late September, there were still positives. Against Bowling Green, the Redhawks didn’t allow a touchdown until over halfway through the fourth quarter. They gave up two first quarter touchdowns against Western Michigan but then didn’t allow the Broncos to reach the end zone again until six minutes into the third quarter. The Redhawks had a difficult time containing the Western Michigan passing game, but won’t be faced with such a challenge here as Army rarely throws the football. Also note that earlier in the campaign the Redhawks held Cincinnati and Minnesota to just 21 and 26 points, respectively, albeit in lopsided losses. Army has scored a whopping 94 points over its last two games, but again, that has had more to do with the matchups than anything else. Last week it caught a terrible San Jose State squad and was held scoreless for a quarter before the Spartans awful run defense got worn down and the floodgates opened. I’m more interested in the Black Knights defense here, noting that they have allowed 21 points or less in all but one game this season – that coming against Duke back in their season-opener. Even in the 34-14 loss to Duke they didn’t give up a touchdown until the second quarter. The last time these two teams met we saw a 35-28 shootout in favor of Miami-Ohio, but that was way back in 2011. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-18 | Air Force v. UNLV UNDER 57 | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Air Force and UNLV at 10 pm et on Friday. This is a make-or-break game for both of these programs as far as their Bowl prospects go this season. With both checking in at 2-4, neither can afford to suffer a fifth loss with the end of October approaching. We won with the 'under' in Air Force's narrow 21-17 loss at San Diego State last Friday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Since giving up 42 points in a loss at Utah State back on September 22nd, Air Force has allowed a grand total of just 56 points over its last three contests. It did allow 30 points against UNLV in last year's matchup but catches a break here as the Runnin' Rebels are without their versatile QB Armani Rogers, who torched the Falcons for 148 rushing yards and a score in last year's meeting. Without Rogers over their last two games, the Rebels offense has been limited, with sophomore QB Max Gilliam throwing for five touchdowns, but most of those came in garbage time when UNLV was already getting blown out. I do expect a more competitive affair here, meaning the Rebels will have less opportunity to pad their stats against disinterested fourth quarter defense. It's worth noting that opposing defenses have keyed on RB Lexington Thomas in Rogers' absence, holding him to just 87 yards on 18 carries over the last two games. The Falcons triple-option offense is obviously tough to prepare for on a short week but the good news is, the Rebels face Air Force every year in the Mountain West Conference and should certainly have a chip on their shoulder after giving up 50+ points in back-to-back games. UNLV does have a better defense that it has shown over the last couple of games and this is a pretty good bounce-back spot against an Air Force squad that has topped out at 38 points this season - that performance coming against FCS squad Stony Brook back in its season-opener. Take the under (10*). |
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10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State OVER 56 | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia State and Arkansas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Jonesboro on Thursday night. We had to settle for a push with the ‘under’ in Georgia State’s most recent game – a 37-20 road loss to Troy back on October 4th. That was certainly a tough draw for the Panthers against a good Troy defense. Here, they should face a lot less resistance against an Arkansas State defense that just got dismantled by Appalachian State last week. The Mountaineers got off to a sluggish start against the Red Wolves, but eventually settled in and scored three second quarter touchdowns before adding two more in the second half. Appalachian State essentially got whatever it wanted against this Arkansas State defense. One game before that we also saw the Red Wolves hold up well for a stretch before falling apart and allowing three touchdowns from five minutes remaining in the third quarter until the end of the game in a loss to Georgia Southern. Keep in mind, prior to the blowout loss at Troy, Georgia State scored 46 points in a rout of Louisiana-Monroe, finding the end zone four times in the first half alone. The problem for the Panthers has been their defense, which got lit up for three touchdowns before the game was just over a quarter old against Troy and also allowed 34 points or more in each contest during a three-game slide earlier this season. Arkansas State shot itself in the foot time and time again on offense against Appalachian State last week but should find the going much easier against Georgia State. Take the over (10*). |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' at Lambeau Field on Monday night. Most have already written off the 49ers given all of their injuries, including the big one to QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Last week's home loss to the lowly Cardinals certainly did nothing to change that narrative. While I'm not high enough on the 'Niners to suggest grabbing the points with them here on Monday, I do expect them to do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. QB C.J. Beathard has actually performed admirably in a backup role here since the start of last season. Last week we saw him turn in a 300+ yard passing day, even with a number of his offensive weapons sidelined. What I like about Beathard is his ability to extend plays with his mobility. Note that he has scored a rushing touchdown in four of the eight games he's gotten into since the start of last year. The emergence of TE George Kittle has given the 49ers offense a different look this season and he should prove to be a handful for the Packers struggling defense on Monday. Even though he's still nursing a number of injuries, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers continues to bomb away and that's not going to change on Monday night. With the return of RB Aaron Jones the Packers do possess a more versatile offense than they did earlier this season, with three capable running backs to lean on. Like the 49ers, the Pack are also dealing with some key injuries on offense and at wide receiver in particular. I'm not really sure it matters all that much here though. Rodgers should be able to turn in one of his best stat lines of the season against a very beatable 49ers defense that hasn't had any success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks or slowing down vertical aerial attacks. Look for a big night from Packers TE Jimmy Graham. It's also worth noting that the 'Niners are giving up well north of four yards per rush this season. This may not evolve into a true shootout, but I do believe the posted total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 42 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 67 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Baltimore and Tennessee at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘under’ in the Ravens overtime loss to the Browns last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play this week as Baltimore stays on the road to face the Titans. This Baltimore defense continues to improve and welcomed back cornerback Jimmy Smith last week – a true gamechanger for this unit. I’m confident in Baltimore’s ability to limit a below average Titans offense here. Tennessee has topped out at 26 points this season, but that came two weeks ago against a depleted Eagles defense that has struggled in the early going. The good news is, the Titans do possess a terrific defense that is capable of containing a Ravens offense that has really only been able to bust out against bottom-tier defenses this season. We’ve seen Baltimore make headway against the likes of Buffalo, Denver and Pittsburgh. However, in its other two games against Cincinnati and Cleveland it managed to score a grand total of 32 points. Note that when these two teams met last season, the Titans prevailed by a 23-20 score. I believe both defenses are better this year and anticipate a lower-scoring affair as a result. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Even with the Rams injury concerns at the wide receiver position, and the Broncos struggles with Case Keenum under center, I’m still anticipating a shootout in Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Rams offense has a bit of a ‘next man up’ feel so even if Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are unable to go, I still expect to see this unit put plenty of points on the board. Keep in mind, the Rams still have arguably the best running back in football in Todd Gurley, who should have a field day against a vulnerable Broncos run defense on Sunday afternoon. We successfully faded the Broncos on the road against the Jets last Sunday and the fact is, the final numbers put up by their offense actually made things look a lot better than they actually were, putting points on the board in garbage time. Here, I am expecting a strong bounce-back performance from the Denver offense as they draw a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that has had a miserable time slowing down opponents this season. While Los Angeles is certainly thought of as an elite team, deservingly so, it’s largely on the strength of its offense. Defensively, the Rams are missing key cogs and the personnel they have had on the field has not come close to living up to expectations. There’s little reason to expect a sudden turnaround as they stay on the road for the second straight week and face a highly-motivated Broncos offense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Colts v. Jets OVER 45 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. The Colts defense has fallen back to Earth following a surprisingly strong start to the season. They check into this one having allowed over 30 points in back-to-back games and while things should get a little easier here, the Jets are coming off their best offensive showing of the season last week and could build off of that performance in this favorable matchup at home. QB Sam Darnold has shown plenty of positives in his rookie campaign and should be brimming with confidence after hitting a number of big plays against the Broncos once-feared pass defense last week. We saw WR Robby Anderson re-emerge in last week’s contest and I look for some carry-over from that performance as he continues to build chemistry with Darnold. On the flip side, the Colts offense has shown some progression with QB Andrew Luck getting back in rhythm with the offense. He did well to keep his team in the game against the Patriots last week. The Colts have been bombing away, so to speak, and I anticipate more of the same here this Sunday as Indianapolis could be playing from behind once again. The Jets defense isn’t scaring anyone these days. While the Colts are still missing WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle, they showed last week that they can still consistently move the football down the field with their short passing game. It’s that short game that should give the Jets some trouble on Sunday afternoon. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here due to the reputations these two teams carry as AFC also-rans. I see the game playing out differently. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 48 | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 64 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. It’s not easy to call for a shootout in a game involving the Raiders these days. They were absolutely manhandled by the Chargers last Sunday but do find themselves in a favorable spot here facing a Seahawks defense that is by no means a feared unit anymore. After giving RB Marshawn Lynch very little work in last week’s blowout loss, I do expect Oakland to go back to Lynch in this matchup against his former team and that should bode well for the Raiders offensive production. As for the Seahawks, I expect their offense to go off against a weak Raiders defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run, allowing over five yards per rush, nor has it been able to defend the deep ball, which plays right into the hands of this Seattle aerial attack. The Seahawks are of course back at full strength in their passing game with WR Doug Baldwin back on the field. He was virtually a non-factor in last week’s narrow loss to the Rams but should play a much bigger role this Sunday. Meanwhile, the Seahawks ground game has quietly emerged as a serious threat to opposing defenses and I’m confident we’ll see Chris Carson and Mike Davis run wild in this contest. This is a reasonably high posted total for a ‘London game’ but I do believe it’s warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 57 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is the game that will likely have fantasy owners scrambling to pick up Bucs QB Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay will turn to Winston on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta and he draws an extremely favorable matchup in his first start back. I may sound like a broken record playing Falcons ‘overs’ seemingly every week but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Atlanta defense remains depleted and faces another opponent that won’t hesitate to go vertical on them all afternoon long. With little semblance of a running game, the Bucs will likely bomb away and find success doing so. On the flip side, the Falcons offense is coming off a bit of a stinker last week in Pittsburgh. They were able to move the football but ultimately couldn’t put points on the board, but should rebound against a Bucs defense that has shown absolutely zero ability to slow down opposing passing games. Tampa Bay’s main focus is on stopping the run, and it has done a good job of limiting opposing backs. However, the Bucs secondary is bottom of the barrel and will certainly have its hands full against the Falcons loaded receiving corps. We’re dealing with a very high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-18 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 52.5 | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting a shootout between these two high-scoring division rivals on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati but these AFC North slugfests rarely play out that way (the most recent meeting between these two teams went 23-20 in favor of the Steelers) and I anticipate more of the same this week. The Steelers were in an absolutely beautiful spot last week, hosting a depleted Falcons defense, at home no less. Not surprisingly, they had their way with Atlanta offensively (we won with the Steelers and the over) but should face a considerably tougher challenge on the road against the Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati is coming off a strong defensive showing last week, absolutely shutting the Dolphins down after digging an early hole, allowing the offense to rally before notching a late defensive score. I look for some carry-over from that second half performance here. Keep in mind, the Bengals defense has gotten stronger, particularly against the run, with the return of LB Vontaze Burfict. Pittsburgh’s defense had been getting torched repeatedly prior to last week’s bounce-back performance against the Falcons. That effort should bode well for this group as it prepares to face a somewhat underrated Bengals offense on Sunday afternoon. Both teams may very well get into the 20’s in this contest, but I believe the lofty posted total will simply prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 58 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Colorado and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw a fairly high-scoring game between these two teams last season as USC pulled out a 38-24 victory in early November. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday night as both defenses should come to play in this important Pac-12 matchup. We won with the ‘under’ in the Buffaloes 28-21 win over Arizona State last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. In that game, Colorado held Arizona State off the scoreboard from 13 minutes remaining in the third quarter onward. It was another strong showing for the Buffaloes offense with the Montez to Shenault connection coming up big. I do believe USC is capable of slowing that duo down on Saturday night, however. The Trojans manhandled Arizona, on the road no less, last Saturday, holding the Wildcats scoreless until midway through the third quarter in an eventual 24-20 victory. There are still concerns when it comes to the USC offense, however, noting that the Trojans didn’t score again after Aca’Cedric Ware’s long touchdown run in the first five minutes of the third quarter against a weak Arizona defense. After narrowly escaping with a wild 39-36 victory over Washington State in their most recent home game, the Trojans would be wise to avoid another shootout here. Colorado has scored a whopping 78 points in two road games this season, but those came against weak defensive opponents in Colorado State and Nebraska (and the first of those games wasn’t really a true road game as it was played at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver). Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina UNDER 57.5 | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 57 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Virginia Tech and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Chapel Hill on Saturday night. The Hokies are fresh off a relatively high-scoring affair against an emerging Notre Dame offense last week but I expect to see the scoring settle down here. Remember, just two games back, the Hokies held Duke to just one touchdown through the first three quarters in a 31-14 victory, on the road no less. This is also the team that opened the season with a positively dominant defensive performance on the road against Florida State, delivering a 24-3 victory (we won with the ‘under’ in that game). Sure, there was the anomaly against Old Dominion – a game in which the Hokies suffered an inexplicable fourth quarter defensive collapse – but I’m willing to give them a mulligan for that one. This is a spot where the Hokies need to show up and I’m confident they will, on the defensive side of the football at least. North Carolina has been involved in one shootout this season – a 38-35 home win over Pittsburgh back on September 22nd. Outside of that, we’ve seen the Tar Heels offense struggle. Last time out they suffered a 47-10 loss at Miami (we won with the ‘over’) with the offense looking completely out of sync and unsure of itself at times. This isn’t an ideal ‘get right’ spot by any means. I will point out that the Tar Heels defense did hang in against Miami, in spite of the lopsided final score. They allowed just two offensive touchdowns through the first three plus quarters of that game and only three in total over the full 60 minutes. They’ll be taking a step down in class against the Hokies offense here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Missouri v. Alabama UNDER 74 | Top | 10-39 | Win | 100 | 57 h 46 m | Show |
NCAAF TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Missouri and Alabama at 7 pm et on Saturday. It’s not easy playing the ‘under’ in games involving the Alabama Crimson Tide but here we are on Saturday night. ‘Bama has some things to clean up after allowing 31 points in another blowout win over Arkansas last week. I fully expect to see the Crimson Tide come out and play a near-flawless brand of defensive football on Saturday night, even against a tough offensive opponent in Missouri. Keep in mind, while the Tide did give up 31 points against Arkansas, it held the Hogs to only two touchdowns through the game’s first three quarters. It wasn’t until things were completely out of hand that the Tide softened up, relatively speaking. We did cash an ‘over’ ticket in a game involving Missouri back on September 22nd – a 43-29 home loss to Georgia. It is worth nothing, however, that the Tigers scored a touchdown with two minutes remaining in the first quarter but then were held out of the end zone until midway through the third quarter. That was actually a relatively low-scoring game early on that turned on a couple of first half defensive scores by Georgia. While there’s certainly a good chance the Tide defense does some scoring on Saturday night, it’s not really something that we can truly account for. Even last week against South Carolina, Missouri scored two touchdowns before the first quarter was 11 minutes old but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the fourth quarter. The Tigers defense has been pretty bad this season but has shown the ability to hold up for stretches. Going back to the Georgia game, they didn’t’ allow the Bulldogs to score an offensive touchdown until nearly four minutes into the third quarter. ‘Bama rolled to a 42-13 win the last time these two teams met back in 2014. A similar outcome isn’t outside the realm of possibility on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame UNDER 55 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. With Notre Dame coming off three straight relatively high-scoring games and Pitt fresh off a wild, high-scoring overtime win over Syracuse last Saturday (we won with the ‘over’ in that game), we’re dealing with a rather high posted total in advance of this matchup in South Bend on Saturday. I believe the total will prove too high. After getting off to a rough start defensively last week, Pitt did settle down, keeping Syracuse out of the end zone from six minutes remaining in the first quarter until nearly midway through the third quarter. On the flip side, however, the Panthers scored a touchdown with just under six minutes left in the first quarter but then the offense didn’t reach the end zone again until the first minute of the third quarter. It’s also worth noting that the Panthers kept the Orange out of the end zone for the entire fourth quarter and overtime. Notre Dame delivered a 45-23 knockout blow at Virginia Tech last Saturday night. I will point out that the Irish scored a touchdown six minutes into the game but then didn’t put another offensive touchdown on the board until three minutes into the third quarter. They gave up just one touchdown in the second quarter and then didn’t allow another until the game was all but out of hand over halfway through the fourth quarter. The last meeting between these two programs was a shootout but that was back in 2015. Expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Troy v. Liberty OVER 63.5 | 16-22 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Troy and Liberty at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Lynchburg on Saturday afternoon. We settled for a push with the ‘under’ in Troy’s most recent game – a 37-20 win over Georgia State last Thursday night. There’s no denying the Trojans offensive ability as they scored at will both early and late in that victory over the Panthers. Now they draw a matchup with a Liberty squad that is quite simply built for shootouts. Its last two games have reached 95 and 90 total points against New Mexico and New Mexico State. It will obviously be facing a tougher defensive test against the Trojans, but I still feel Liberty will be up for the challenge. Note that it got off to a sluggish start last week, which was perhaps to be expected after scoring 52 points in an upset win the week earlier. Once the Flames got rolling in the second half they managed to find the end zone on four different occasions. I don’t believe Troy will shy away from another shootout here. It seems that the Trojans are getting better offensively with each passing week. While they’ve scored a whopping 82 points in notching back-to-back home wins over the last two weeks, they also scored 35 points (all coming in the first half) in their last road game against Louisiana-Monroe. With Liberty possessing one of the nation’s worst defenses, this has all the makings of a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 55 | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Duke and Georgia Tech at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. Duke steamrolled Georgia Tech by a 43-20 score in last year’s meeting. The Blue Devils find themselves in an underdog role in the same matchup this Saturday, despite their 4-1 overall record. Rather than focus on the side, I’ll call for a lower-scoring game than the betting marketplace is anticipating. Unlike past editions of the Blue Devils, this year’s squad can play some defense. They’ve allowed 14 points or less in three of five games so far, but are coming off a 31-14 setback at home against Virginia Tech last time out. They’ve had an extra week to regroup following that loss and I fully expect them to rebound with a strong effort here. It seemed in that game against the Hokies, the Blue Devils hung tough early, limiting Virginia Tech to just a single field goal in the first quarter before grabbing a lead and letting down their guard. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw Duke go on the road against a good Baylor offense and hold the Bears scoreless for the entire first half and gave up just one offensive touchdown through the first three quarters. The Blue Devils familiarity with the Yellow Jackets’ option-based offense will certainly help their cause here. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Georgia Tech’s last game – a wild 66-31 shootout victory over Louisville last Friday night. The Yellow Jackets have now scored 60+ points in back-to-back games but I don’t see them coming close to reaching that level of offensive production here. Remember, the Jackets were held to just 40 points combined in back-to-back losses to Pitt and Clemson earlier this season. They took full advantage of a Louisville squad that simply didn’t show up last week – something they won’t be afforded against what will be a hungry Blue Devils team in a bounce-back spot here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Florida v. Vanderbilt UNDER 50.5 | 37-27 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Florida and Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is a bit of a tricky spot for Florida, on the heels of four straight victories, including a big 27-19 win over rival LSU last Saturday, it hits the road to face a Vanderbilt squad that will be eager to bounce back from a poor showing at Georgia last week. The Gators haven’t given up much defensively this season. Even in their lone loss at Kentucky they allowed just one first half touchdown and with the game hanging in the balance held the Wildcats scoreless from four minutes left in the third quarter until allowing a defensive fumble return for a touchdown on the game’s final play. Last week against LSU, Florida gave up a touchdown in the game’s first four minutes but then didn’t allow the Tigers to sniff the end zone again until a few minutes into the fourth quarter. Now they face a limited Vandy offense that didn’t score a touchdown until two seconds remaining in the game at Georgia last week, at which point the Bulldogs defense wasn’t really all that interested. Even two games back at home against FCS squad Tennessee State, Vandy didn’t score a touchdown until four minutes into the second quarter. I do expect the Commodores defense to show up for this one, however. They actually hung tough with the Bulldogs for much of the first half last week, only suffering a lapse on a 75-yard touchdown catch early in the first quarter before getting sloppy again on Georgia’s final drive of the opening half. We did cash an ‘under’ ticket in the Commodores 22-17 loss at Notre Dame back in early September. I can’t help but feel that this situation sets up similarly. Vandy will be overmatched talent-wise, but might just catch the Gators lacking a real ‘killer instinct’, which would play into our hands with an ‘under’ ticket in hand as far as I’m concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-18 | Air Force v. San Diego State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 7 m | Show |
NCAAF Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Air Force and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Friday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in San Diego on Friday night. This hasn’t exactly been a low-scoring series in recent years but I expect to see a different story unfold this time around. Air Force is coming off a dominant 35-7 win over Navy. It is worth noting that the Falcons didn’t find the end zone until over midway through the second quarter in that game. Even in a wild 42-32 loss at Utah State two games back, Air Force scored two second quarter touchdowns but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the fourth quarter. Earlier this season against Florida Atlanta (we won with AFA and the ‘under’ in that game) the Falcons didn’t score a touchdown until there were less than three minutes remaining in the first half. You get the picture. Now the Falcons go on the road to face a stout San Diego State defense that is coming off its most impressive performance of the season, defeating Boise State by a 19-13 score last Saturday, on the road no less. Over the course of its current four-game winning streak, San Diego State has given up a grand total of just 68 points. With that being said, the Aztecs offense hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut. They’ve yet to score more than 28 points in a game this season. Of note, in a 28-14 win over FCS squad Sacramento State earlier this season, the Aztecs scored a touchdown with a little under six minutes left in the first quarter but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the game’s final four minutes. Two games back at home against Eastern Michigan, the Aztecs managed only two touchdowns, both coming in the second quarter. In other words, both of these squads are prone to extended touchdown droughts. While we are dealing with a relatively low total, I believe it is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Giants last second loss at Carolina last Sunday while missing the mark with the 'over' in the Eagles home loss to the Vikings. I'll stay the course and call for the 'over' again as this matchup has shootout potential on Thursday night. The Eagles offense didn't look particularly sharp last Sunday against Minnesota but it may have been a case of the wrong place at the wrong time as the Vikes were bent on revenge after falling in last year's NFC Championship Game and were coming off an extended week following a tough Thursday night loss to the Rams in Los Angeles, in which their defense got lit up. Here the Eagles will draw a Giants defense that hasn't had any answers for opposing offenses this season due to injuries and otherwise. The G-Men will get Olivier Vernon back this week but all indications are that he'll be on a limited snap count. In the last eight meetings in this series, the Giants have allowed 27, 34, 27, 35, 23, 24, 27 and 34 points. As for the Giants offense, we've seen them turning things around lately, scoring at least 27 points in two of their last three games. The Eagles defense is injury-ravaged and has had its hands full with Eli Manning and co. at the best of times in recent years. I've been one of Manning's biggest critics but there's no denying we saw plenty of positives in last week's shootout loss to the Panthers. It does seem as if the G-Men are finally figuring out ways to move the football with all of that star power on offense. With Rodney McLeod sidelined and now his replacement Corey Graham on the shelf as well, Philadelphia is in a tough spot trying to defend the pass. Regardless who falls behind in this game there's certainly 'bomb away' potential against these defenses. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 62.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 55 h 14 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas Tech and TCU at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This one will be billed as a shootout but I’m not convinced that’s how the story will unfold on Thursday night in Fort Worth. Texas Tech is coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against West Virginia back on September 29th. With a posted total in the mid-70s for that one, it certainly had all the makings of a shootout and played out precisely that way. I will point out, however, after giving up four first quarter touchdowns the Red Raiders did hold the Mountaineers to just one offensive touchdown the rest of the way. Offensively, Texas Tech could only muster one first half touchdown of its own. Two games back the Red Raiders posted an impressive 42-17 win at Oklahoma State, allowing just two first half touchdowns before shutting out the Cowboys the rest of the way. I certainly would not expect TCU to get involved in many shootouts of its own this season. There was a 40-28 loss to Ohio State back on September 15th (we missed with the ‘under’ in that game) but that contest included two defensive scores by the Buckeyes. The next week, the Horned Frogs were completely manhandled by Texas (we won with the ‘under’ in that game) and last time out they had to settle for a narrow 17-14 win over Iowa State at home on September 29th. Keep in mind, last year’s matchup between these two teams totaled only 30 points as the Horned Frogs won in a walk, 27-3. Both teams enter this game rested and ready and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at the Superdome on Monday night. The Redskins have given up yardage in big chunks on the ground this season but that's by design as they're willing to give up rushing yards and focus on stopping the pass. That should actually serve them well against the explosive Saints offense on Monday night. Note that New Orleans will get RB Mark Ingram back from suspension on Monday which could certainly lead to the Saints being a little more run-oriented. The Saints defense has finally shown some signs of life after a miserable start to the season. They were tough on the Giants last week, on the road no less, and keep in mind, New York scored 30+ points yesterday in Carolina. Here, the Saints draw a manageable matchup as the Redskins offense isn't going to scare anyone. QB Alex Smith has yet to get completely in sync with the offense and Washington has proven rather one-dimensional over its last couple of games (after Adrian Peterson turned back the clock in Week 1 against Arizona). I simply feel that we'll see plenty of long, clock-eating drives in this contest. I'm not convinced that the lofty total is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Perhaps the fact that both of these teams were involved in relatively high-scoring games last week, certainly higher-scoring than expected, is resulting in us dealing with a rather lofty posted total in advance of this Sunday night showdown. Whatever the case, I'll back the 'under' as I don't have a great deal of faith in either offense right now. The Cowboys will do their best to churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense again this week, centring around RB Ezekiel Elliott. While I do believe the Texans have their weaknesses defensively, most of those lie in the secondary where they are ravaged by injuries. Their run defense has actually been stout, giving up just 3.6 yards per rush this season. And the question remains whether the Cowboys are capable of exposing any secondary, no matter how depleted, with their often lifeless passing game. The Dallas defense doesn't get nearly enough credit, mainly because it's been overshadowed by the issues on offense. Even without LB Sean Lee, the 'Boys still possess a solid defense across the board and one that will only get better with the return of DL David Irving from suspension this week. Lee's absence is mainly felt against the run but the Texans backfield is average at best. It's through the air where the Cowboys will need to be on their toes defending but I like the way their secondary matches up against the Texans strong wide receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. The last time these two teams met in 2014 we saw only 37 total points. That has little bearing on the outcome of this week's game but I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 50 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at CenturyLink Field on Sunday afternoon. We've actually won with the 'over' in each of the Rams last two contests and there's absolutely no reason to switch gears here. It seems impossible, but the Rams offense is actually getting better with each passing week. It feels like ages ago that we saw them sputter in the early going against the Raiders in Week 1. Now they look like a fine-tuned machine and with an extra few days to prepare for this matchup against a depleted Seahawks defense I fully expect a big performance across the board. There are concerns worth noting on the Rams defense, however. Cornerback Aqib Talib remains sidelined and while fellow corner Marcus Peters has managed to stay on the field he hasn't looked healthy and has subsequently gotten burned on a number of occasions over the last couple of weeks. Los Angeles should be able to score at will against the Earl Thomas-less Seattle defense but I don't believe it will be the only team putting points on the board on Sunday afternoon. Seattle did welcome back WR Doug Baldwin last week and in his absence Tyler Lockett carved out a nice role in this offense as well. Likely playing from behind most of the day, I expect the Seahawks to all but abandon their running game and more passing certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings loss to the Rams last Thursday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Entering the season most believed Minnesota's defense would be one of the best in the league but that simply hasn't been the case, due to injuries and otherwise. The Rams absolutely exposed the Vikings defense (if it hadn't been already) last week and I expect to see plenty of carry-over from that miserable performance against the Eagles this Sunday. Philadelphia continues to work QB Carson Wentz back into the fold and we saw considerable progression from him last week against the Titans. That was despite facing a Tennessee defense that has applied a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Despite their reputation, I don't believe the Vikes will have much success putting Wentz under duress here. I'm anticipating a big game from Eagles WRs Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery in particular as they should have little trouble finding open field against what has become a porous Minnesota secondary. This is obviously a bit of a desperation spot for the Vikings who are quickly seeing their season crumble before them. With that in mind, we can expect them to throw everything they have at the Eagles, and that has to start with their offense, which is certainly capable of operating at a high level, just as we saw last Thursday night against the Rams. QB Kirk Cousins should be able to find success bombing away against an Eagles pass defense that continues to struggle without corner Rodney McLeod. The Eagles have been much tougher against the run but the Vikes haven't shown much interest in running the football anyway and there's a good chance they'll be playing from behind for much of the game on Sunday, leading to a lot more looks for stud WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 52.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I've seen enough evolution from the Raiders offense to warrant a play on the 'over' as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Oakland certainly didn't shy away from a shootout at home against the Browns last week, moving the football at will against an up-and-coming Cleveland defines. QB Derek Carr has turned things around over the last couple of weeks following a miserable start to the season. He certainly appears to be getting comfortable with veteran WR Jordy Nelson in the slot and last week we saw flashes of big play ability on a couple of ultimately failed hook-ups with WR Martavis Bryant. I like the matchups that Bryant and WR Amari Cooper draw against the Chargers secondary this week. Los Angeles will continue to struggle to keep opposing offenses at bay as long as LB Joey Bosa is sidelined and now will have to press on without another one of their top defenders in LB Kyzir White as well. Meanwhile, there's little reason to believe the Raiders defense will have any answers for the Chargers versatile offense. QB Philip Rivers likely won't have to worry about any sort of pressure on Sunday afternoon as no team has recorded fewer sacks than the Raiders this season. Look for Rivers to have a field day slinging the ball all over the field to his talented group of wide receivers. RB Melvin Gordon doesn't get enough credit for the work he does - perhaps overshadowed by another elite RB in the same city in Todd Gurley. Oakland checks in allowing almost six yards per rush and should also struggle to cover Gordon in the passing game. Take the over (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a bit of a tough spot for the Ravens playing their second straight division road game after posting an "upset" win in Pittsburgh last Sunday night. That probably wasn't really an upset at all as the Steelers continue to struggle in the early going this season. I do like the fact that Baltimore is catching Cleveland coming back across the country following a big missed opportunity in Oakland last Sunday afternoon. Baltimore continues to get healthier on defense, having welcomed back two of its best run-stoppers in LB C.J. Mosley and DT Michael Pierce last week. Now the Ravens will also get their top corner Jimmy Smith back from suspension and he should make an immediate impact against a Browns offense that probably isn't quite as good as it looked in last week's track meet in Oakland. Offensively, the Ravens have been generally solid but you really never know what you're going to get from QB Joe Flacco. The Browns defense certainly isn't as bad as it looked against the Raiders last Sunday. They seemed to wilt under the pressure of playing with sizeable leads, something they likely won't be afforded this week. A return home should certainly help their cause on the defensive side of the football as well. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 16-34 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Jets saw their two-game 'under' streak end last week in Jacksonville but it had nothing to do with their own offense. They were held to 17 points or less for a third straight game in that loss and while the Broncos do have some holes they can exploit on defense I'm just not sure they have the personnel in place to take advantage. On the flip side, I am confident we'll see a far better performance from the Jets defense than we did in Jacksonville, noting that they'll catch the Broncos traveling on a short week to play an early start Sunday matchup on the east coast. Denver continues to struggle to score with QB Case Keenum looking more and more like he may not be the right fit in this offense, or simply not capable of being an every-week starting QB in the NFL. Some of his misses were glaring on Monday night, most notably his sideline pass to a wide-open WR Demariyus Thomas that would have likely resulted in a game-winning touchdown. While I do like some of the pieces the Broncos have in place on offense, they lack explosiveness and the ability to string together scoring drives. Note that Denver has scored 23 points or less in all three games since opening the season with a 27-point performance (helped along by three key turnovers) against a depleted Seahawks defense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers OVER 43.5 | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's little reason to expect the Giants to offer any resistance against a steadily improving Panthers offense on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte. New York has been ravaged by injuries on the defensive side of the football and were it not for a number of mistakes from the Saints offense in the red zone in the first half of last week's game, it easily could have given up 40+ points. That's certainly concerning as the Giants hit the road to face a Panthers squad that is coming off their bye week. I'm not sure we'll need all that much from the Giants offense to get 'over' this very reasonable posted total. With that being said, in spite of Eli Manning's presence, I do believe the G-Men can put together at least a couple of touchdown drives, as they do draw some favorable matchups, most notably for WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. Meanwhile, RB Saquon Barkley is without question a stud and regardless the matchup should be able to get his in this contest. Note that the Panthers are giving up well north of five yards per rush this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Utah v. Stanford UNDER 46 | 40-21 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Utah and Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. This is certainly a low posted total by college football standards but I do believe it is warranted. Note that these two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair last year as Stanford pulled out a 23-20 victory. I believe this year’s matchup has a chance to be even lower-scoring. Utah knows it needs to tighten things up if it’s going to avoid a third consecutive loss. We saw a wild first half between the Utes and Washington State last Saturday, with both teams scoring three touchdowns. However, Utah didn’t find the end zone again after scoring a TD with six minutes remaining in the first half. On the flip side, the Utes gave up just one touchdown to the Cougars after nine minutes remaining in the second quarter, and that came on an 89-yard pass completion, something that you don’t see very often against this stout defense. Over the Utes previous two games they scored a grand total of just 24 points and seven of those came as a result of a defensive touchdown. Even in Utah’s 41-10 blowout win over FCS squad Weber State to open the season, it took a while before the offense got going. Stanford got lit up for 38 points at Notre Dame last Saturday night so it will also be looking to put forth a much sharper defensive effort here. Perhaps there was a bit of a hangover effect in play after the Cardinal were involved in a wild, come-from-behind 38-31 overtime win at Oregon the week previous. Much like the Utes, I believe the Cardinal are far more comfortable grinding things out in a defensive affair given their personnel. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Vanderbilt v. Georgia UNDER 55 | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 56 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Vanderbilt and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m not expecting much from the Vandy offense on Saturday night in Athens. At the same time, the Bulldogs are coming off five straight blowout victories to open the season, in which their offense hasn’t really been tested. I do expect to see the Commodores at least offer some form of resistance on Saturday night. Even last week, when Vandy put up 31 points in a win over FCS squad Tennessee State, it still only scored one first half touchdown and was buoyed by three ‘big play’ touchdowns in the second half – the type of plays that simply won’t happen against this Georgia defense. Prior to that, Vandy had put up just 31 points in its last two games combined. There were a couple of offensive outbursts to open the season as the Commodores defeated Middle Tennessee State and Nevada in blowout fashion. However, those performances were certainly matchup-based. As far as the Georgia offense goes, it is worth noting that two weeks ago, it didn’t score an offensive touchdown in the entire first half against a weak defensive opponent in Missouri. Last Saturday, the Bulldogs scored only three touchdowns before adding two more in the game’s final four minutes. In other words, it’s not as if the ‘Dawgs have been an absolute offensive juggernaut in recent weeks. Last year, this matchup produced 59 points as Georgia rolled to a 45-14 victory. I expect the Commodores to do a slightly better job containing the Bulldogs this time around which lends itself to a lower-scoring contest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Arizona State v. Colorado UNDER 64.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arizona State and Colorado at 4 pm et on Saturday. Arizona State is coming off a high-scoring win over reeling Oregon State last Saturday but will be in tough following that performance up in Boulder this week. Note that in the Sun Devils two previous road games this season they managed to score only 41 points combined in losses to San Diego State and Washington. Against San Diego State, Arizona State scored a touchdown with around eight minutes left in the second quarter and then didn’t find the end zone again until the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. The next week at Washington, the Sun Devils put a touchdown on the board three minutes into the contest but then didn’t score another TD until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter. In other words, this is an offense that can settle into some lulls. Colorado is off to a perfect 4-0 start and has certainly held up well defensively, save for a poor showing at Nebraska. Although even in that game, the Buffaloes gave up just one big play touchdown in the second half after allowing three TDs in the first 30 minutes. They manhandled UCLA last week, allowing a touchdown halfway through the first quarter but then keeping the Bruins out of the end zone for the remainder of the game. These two teams were involved in a wild 41-30 affair in favor of Arizona State last November. Don’t count on a repeat performance here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 65 | Top | 26-49 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
NCAAF Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Indiana and Ohio State at 4 pm et on Saturday. We’ve won with the ‘under’ in each of Ohio State’s last two games and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday as the Buckeyes host Indiana. The Hoosiers are off to a solid 4-1 start to the season but let’s face it, their schedule hasn’t toughened up yet. In their lone true test they suffered a 35-21 home loss against Michigan State. They check in 2-0 on the road, where they have scored 62 points, but they managed only 24 points in last week’s victory against a bad Rutgers squad. In that game, they did manage to score three touchdowns, but all three came in the game’s first 21 minutes. The good news is, the Indiana defense can hold up better than it did last year against the Buckeyes. Note that in its toughest test so far, it held Michigan State to only one offensive touchdown before the final 20 seconds of the first half and only three offensive touchdowns in total in that contest – one coming on a 75-yard run to close out the game with just over three minutes remaining. Ohio State’s offense certainly wasn’t great last Saturday night but that had a lot to do with the environment it was playing in. There’s no question the Buckeyes will have an easier time getting loose in this one but I’m still not sure this is a true offensive juggernaut and we could see a bit of a hangover here off the thrilling 27-26 victory at Penn State. In this matchup, Ohio State will simply be looking to pick up a ‘W’ and move on and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Syracuse v. Pittsburgh OVER 58 | 37-44 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Syracuse and Pittsburgh at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Syracuse’s narrow loss at Clemson last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Orange travel to face the Pitt Panthers this week. Prior to getting stymied by an elite Clemson defense last week, the Orange were absolutely rolling along offensively. They should have little trouble picking right back up against a weak Panthers defense here. Note that Syracuse scored three touchdowns before the game was even 12 minutes old two weeks ago against Connecticut. In the Orange’s lone road trip so far this season they lit up the scoreboard for 55 points against Western Michigan – again scoring three first quarter touchdowns. With that being said, Pitt does find itself in a solid bounce-back spot offensively here. Last Saturday the Panthers ran into a very tough matchup and scored only 14 points at Central Florida. Keep in mind just two weeks back they scored four first half touchdowns en route to a wild 38-35 loss at North Carolina. Syracuse held up well defensively against Clemson last week but could be a little worn down heading into this matchup. Should the Orange build a lead I do feel that the Panthers will be able to keep the pressure on by bombing away on offense. Note that even against a very limited UConn offense two weeks ago the Orange still allowed three touchdowns. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas OVER 61 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 48 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Oklahoma at 12 pm et on Saturday. This matchup wasn’t as high-scoring as anticipated last season as Oklahoma pulled out a 29-24 victory. I expect a different story to unfold this time around as the Sooners are absolutely rolling offensively but also somewhat vulnerable defensively. That should help lead to a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Texas’ offense certainly didn’t perform at a high level in last week’s narrow 19-14 win at Kansas State but I’m willing to give the Longhorns a mulligan for that one. Note that they had scored at least 28 points in each of their previous four games this season. Even against a tough TCU defense two weeks ago, we saw Texas seal the deal with three touchdowns over the game’s final 16 minutes. Oklahoma rolled to another blowout win last week against Baylor, but still allowed 33 points. Should the Sooners get ahead, the Longhorns should have little trouble bombing away on this defense. The Bears put up three second half touchdowns against the Sooners last week. Game flow dictated a relatively low-scoring affair involving the Sooners against Army two weeks ago. Outside of that, virtually all of their games have evolved into shootouts, with Oklahoma scoring at will. While I do have respect for the Longhorns defense, I feel they’ve caught some favorable matchups this season. Here, they run into a Sooners offense that is operating at an extremely high level. Expect a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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10-05-18 | Georgia Tech v. Louisville UNDER 57.5 | 66-31 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Louisville at 7 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Georgia Tech's rout of Bowling Green last Saturday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Yellow Jackets hit the road to face struggling Louisville on Friday night. The Yellow Jackets absolutely dominated an overmatched Bowling Green defense last Saturday but aren't likely to enjoy anywhere close to the same level of success against the Cardinals. Louisville is allowing just north of four yards per rush this season and held Florida State to next to nothing on the ground in last Saturday's 28-24 loss. The Cards' undoing in that game was a couple of big plays through the air but they won't have to deal with much of an aerial attack at all against the Jackets. On the flip side, the Georgia Tech defense hasn't been all that consistent, but I will point to its game against Clemson two weeks ago, a game in which it didn't allow an offensive touchdown until nearly midway through the second quarter. The Jackets defense ultimately got worn down and couldn't hold up in that contest but won't face the same type of test against a limited Louisville offense here. The Cardinals actually scored three quick first half touchdowns against Florida State last Saturday but couldn't find the end zone again the rest of the way and were held off the scoreboard entirely in the fourth quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots OVER 50.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This may look like a high posted total but it's not really all that high by today's NFL standards. The Colts may not appear all that imposing on offense with WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle sidelined and Andrew Luck still working his way back into form but we certainly saw positive signs from Luck last week as Indy finally 'lifted the lid' so to speak on their now-healthy quarterback. The Colts will be facing a middle of the road, not to mention banged-up New England defense - one that surprisingly held up well against the Dolphins last Sunday, allowing only a late fourth quarter touchdown. Indy does have a couple of offensive weapons that can thrive in this matchup in pass-catching RB Nyheim Hines and TE Eric Ebron. The Patriots couldn't be catching the Colts defense at a better time. Indianapolis has had to play a lot of football over the last couple of weeks and has a number of key defenders either listed as out or questionable to play in this one. Tom Brady will get arguably his favorite target back on the field this week as WR Julian Edelman returns from suspension. TE Rob Gronkowski may not be healthy but I'm not sure it matters. The emergence of RB Sony Michel last week gives the Pats another strong element to their offense. Playing at home for the second straight game following a blowout victory only helps their cause. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston UNDER 68 | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. We've already cashed 'under' tickets in games involving both of these teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play again on Thursday night. Tulsa has actually seen the 'under' cash in each of its last three games. We won with the 'under' in the Golden Hurricane's most recent contest - a 31-17 loss at Temple. It's worth noting that while they did allow 30+ points in that one, they actually didn't give up an offensive score to the Owls until the second quarter. Tempe was buoyed by a pair of defensive touchdowns in that game. The only other time Tulsa traveled this season it held Texas to 28 points, albeit in a losing effort. The Golden Hurricane defense will be facing its toughest test of the season here, but at least it comes in fresh, having just not played since September 20th. Houston also enters this game off its bye week. The Cougars offense has been every bit as good and maybe even better than advertised this season. Save for a wild game against Texas Tech, their defense has been serviceable as well, and draws a favorable matchup against a limited Tulsa offense here. Note that Houston hasn't scored more than 38 points in this matchup since back in 2011 (the two teams have met five times since). I believe they'll have to get well north of that number to threaten this total on Thursday night. It's worth mentioning that the Cougars are without RB Terence Williams, who had run for 142 yards on 25 carries, good for 5.7 yards per rush, before getting injured. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Houston's last 12 AAC contests. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-18 | Georgia State v. Troy UNDER 57 | Top | 20-37 | Push | 0 | 70 h 28 m | Show |
NCAAF Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Troy at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in games involving both of these teams earlier this season but I still believe it's the right play on Thursday night as they match up at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Georgia State has scored exactly 21 points in each of its last two road games against Troy but last year managed only 10 points against the Trojans, at home no less, and I believe this is one of the weaker Panthers offenses we've seen in recent years. Don't count on a repeat performance after Georgia State put up 46 points in a rout of Louisiana-Monroe last Saturday. Prior to that the Panthers had scored just 68 points through their first four games combined. Since allowing 59 points in a weeknight matchup with Memphis back on September 14th, Georgia State has shown some improvement on the defensive side of the football. The very next week the Panthers didn't give up a touchdown until the final five minutes of the first half against Western Michigan. Last Saturday they shut out Louisiana Monroe over the final two quarters and nine minutes of football. Troy has absolutely tightened things up defensively since getting trounced by Boise State in its season-opener. The Trojans offense has been rolling along as well but might have to rein it in a bit playing on a short week here. Note that Troy has scored just 21, 31 and 34 points in its last three matchups against Georgia State. Take the under (10*). |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 54 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Monday night as AFC West rivals the Chiefs and Broncos go head-to-head. Kansas City is of course built for 'overs' with an electric, high-scoring offense and a porous defense. The Chiefs have been lit up both on the ground and through the air through three games this season and nothing figures to change as they face a versatile Broncos offense on Monday night. Denver's offense got derailed in Baltimore last Sunday but faces a more favorable matchup at home here. Note that the Broncos lost breakout rookie RB Phillip Lindsay relatively early in last week's contest. He figures to make an impact against a Chiefs defense that has allowed over five yards per rush to opposing running backs this season. Broncos QB Case Keenum is in a strong bounce-back spot here and should continue to build on his solid rapport with WR Emmanuel Sanders against a very beatable Chiefs secondary. Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes should have a field day throwing on a Broncos secondary that has really struggled this season. Gone are the days of Denver absolutely shutting down opposing passing games. While it does boast a solid pass rush, Mahomes has shown the ability to beat whatever opposing defenses have thrown at him and I expect nothing different here. This is certainly a high total by NFL standards but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 50 | 26-14 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We've seen three straight relatively low-scoring Sunday Night Football matchups to start the season but I look for a different story to unfold this week. While we were previously accustomed to seeing defensive slugfests between the Ravens and Steelers, that hasn't really been the case in recent years. Both of these teams are built on the strength of their offense right now, not necessarily by design in the Ravens case, and that should lead to another high-scoring showdown on Sunday night. The Ravens will get cornerback Jimmy Smith back from suspension in their next game, which is really a game too late as they're in line to get lit up by a loaded Steelers passing game here. We've yet to see Antonio Brown really go off, although we did see signs of it happening this past Monday in Tampa. This should be the game where AB does put up some monster numbers against a vulnerable Ravens pass defense. I also look for Steelers RB James Conner to take a more prominent role, not just running the football, but in the passing game as well. The Ravens offense has really taken off over the last seven or eight games going back to last season. While they're not flashy by any means with Joe Flacco under center, they continue to put up points on a consistent basis. Here they'll be facing a bottom of the barrel Steelers defense that hasn't been able to do anything to limit opposing passing games this season. Even on Monday night, when it looked like Pittsburgh had the game in the bag, they let the Bucs bomb away and ultimately pull within a field goal in the fourth quarter. Expect a high-scoring, back and forth affair at Heinz Field on Sunday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as yet another shootout involving the Saints, who stay on the road to face the Giants. New Orleans owns one of the worst defenses in the entire league right now - a stark contrast to what we saw from the Saints a year ago. Now they'll have to face a Giants offense that found its footing in last week's win in Houston. Eli Manning did a much better job of getting the ball out quickly and utilizing the short passing game, leading to a 27-point outburst against the Texans. Manning and the Giants offense draw another favorable matchup here. The question is, can the G-Men slow down the Saints explosive offense. After suffering a hiccup against an underrated Browns defense, the Saints bounced back in a big way last Sunday, lighting up the scoreboard in Atlanta. There's little reason to expect any regression here, noting that the Giants have had no success generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. Given a clean pocket, Brees should have no trouble carving this New York defense. Perhaps no offensive player is performing as well as Saints RB Alvin Kamara right now and he is in for another big day both on the ground and through the air on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears OVER 46 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. As long as the Bucs continue to play a hyper-aggressive style of offense and no defense whatsoever, they’re an automatic ‘over’ play, even against a quality defensive opponent such as the Bears. Chicago is coming off back-to-back low-scoring games but those results were definitely matchup-driven as they came against the Seahawks and Cardinals. Here, they’ll face their toughest challenge since wilting in the second half against the Packers back in Week 1. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t exactly been lighting up opposing defenses – far from it, in fact – but he does draw a favorable matchup here and I like the effort Chicago made to get RB Jordan Howard more involved not only on the ground but in the passing game as well last week. He works as a focal point of this offense. Meanwhile, Trubisky continues to build a stronger rapport with TE Trey Burton and has clearly found a favorite target in WR Allen Robinson. There are enough positives to take away from the Bears offense over the first three games to believe that they can put up some points against the Bucs. Tampa Bay will undoubtedly continue to bomb away in hopes of baiting the Bears into a shootout here. This could be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s last start for a while should he falter so we can be confident knowing that he’ll go down swinging at the very least. Note that it's been made official on Friday that Bears corner Prince Amukamara will not play on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Falcons wild overtime loss to the Saints last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play here. The Bengals aren’t known for their offense, but they’ve performed pretty well in the early going this season and even if WR A.J. Green can’t go due to his groin injury this week, I still believe they’ll be able to put plenty of points on the board, due in large part to the mess of injuries the Falcons are dealing with on the defensive side of the football. Atlanta got torched by the Saints offense last week and will be in tough trying to slow down a versatile Bengals offense as well. The absence of Deion Jones and Keanu Neal is obviously key, but Takk McKinley’s injury can’t be understated either. The good news for the Falcons is that they have an offense capable of thriving in a shootout. Everyone was quick to criticize the Falcons red zone offense following their opening game in Philadelphia but since then, all they’ve done is go 8-for-8 ending drives with touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. With the Bengals still missing LB Vontaze Burfict, Falcons RB Tevin Coleman should have a field day on Sunday. And the Falcons have mismatches all over the field at wide receiver, especially with the emergence of rookie Calvin Ridley. Expect to see he and Julio Jones go off in this matchup with a below average Bengals pass defense. Perfect conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium only add to the strength of this play. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Patriots stunning blowout loss in Detroit last Sunday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Pats always seem to bounce back from bad games, let along back-to-back bad games, as is the case here. The fact they're returning home for the first time since Week 1 certainly helps their cause. Note that New England always seems to score 30+ points against the Dolphins and while Miami has held up well defensively in the early going this season, it's worth noting it has faced the likes of Tennessee, New York (Jets) and Oakland. This will be its toughest test to date by far. Xavien Howard is a stud in the secondary for the Fins but he can't cover everyone. Look for Tom Brady to spread the football around in this contest. On the flip side, the Patriots defense has been getting gashed against the run and will be vulnerable against Miami's underrated RB Kenyon Drake. The Pats simply don't have the personnel to win games with defense right now and even against a middle of the road Dolphins offense, I don't expect to see them turn in a standout performance. Miami has enough playmakers around QB Ryan Tannehill to put some points on the board in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 70 | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Penn State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We’ve split a pair of ‘under’ plays involving Ohio State over the last weeks but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While this showdown certainly has shootout potential, I simply feel that the total has been set too high, largely as a result of last year’s wild 39-38 affair in favor of Ohio State. The Buckeyes defense didn’t give Tulane anything last Saturday, in what was potentially a nightmare sandwich spot in between games against TCU and Penn State. Keep in mind, a week earlier Ohio State held up well enough to earn a 40-28 win over TCU, not allowing a single point in the fourth quarter of what was a fairly tight game at the time. Offensively, there’s no question the Buckeyes are a juggernaut but they will face a tough test on Saturday night in Happy Valley. Penn State knows it will need to be sharper defensively than it was last week, when it gave up a pair of first half touchdowns against Illinois. For their part, the Nittany Lions didn’t really explode offensively until they had worn down the Illini in the fourth quarter. Penn State’s offense has been incredible, but like the Buckeyes, will be facing their toughest test of the season to date by a longshot here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State OVER 48 | Top | 19-14 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Texas’ big win over TCU last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Longhorns hit the road to face Kansas State this week. I thought the Longhorns did a tremendous job moving the football against a good Horned Frogs defense last Saturday. They were able to come up with big plays when they needed to and have now strung together four pretty impressive offensive results through four games, scoring 29, 28, 37 and 31 points. While their defense has certainly contributed as well, I will give plenty of credit to this emerging offense and I’m confident they can keep things rolling against a Wildcats squad that has had a tough time defending against anyone with a pulse this season. Kansas State gave up five touchdowns through the first three quarters against West Virginia last Saturday. In a previous step-up game against Mississippi State two weeks earlier it hung tough for a quarter before allowing a pair of back-breaking second quarter touchdowns. Offensively the Wildcats have had a tough time as well but will look for a spark with QB Alex Delton taking over the reins against the Longhorns. I like the fact that they’re catching Texas in a clear letdown spot off back-to-back high profile wins over USC and TCU. Let’s also keep in mind that we saw a shootout between these two teams last year with Texas prevailing by a 40-34 score. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Bowling Green v. Georgia Tech UNDER 65.5 | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. The 'over' has cashed in two straight and three of Bowling Green's four games overall this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. It's certainly worth noting that in the Falcons last game against Miami-Ohio last week, we saw only 34 total points through the first three quarters. Despite a wild 27-point fourth quarter, the game still stayed 'under' the number we're working with this week. The Falcons certainly haven't been great defensively this season but I feel they catch a less than daunting matchup, albeit against a Power Five opponent on Saturday afternoon. Georgia Tech has put up only 40 points over its last two games after scoring a whopping 79 points in its first two contests. Of course, the matchups have dictated the Yellow Jackets offensively struggles, although failing to reach the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter against a relatively weak Pitt defines two weeks ago was concerning to be sure. While this should be a layup for Georgia Tech, I'm just not sure we're going to see them go off offensively. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets defines should 'get right' in this matchup. The Falcons will probably look like they're going in slow motion after going up against Clemson last Saturday. It will likely take a shootout to get 'over' this lofty total - I'm not sure we'll see one develop on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Syracuse v. Clemson UNDER 66 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and Clemson at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most are anticipating a shootout between these two squads in Death Valley on Saturday afternoon. I'm not sure we'll see both teams contribute enough to get 'over' the inflated total, however. Syracuse has been rolling offensively, but has also had the benefit of playing each of its last three games on the fast track at the Carrier Dome. Even in a shocking upset win over the Tigers at home last season, the Orange still scored 'only' 27 points. The last time they played in this stadium they were shutout in a blowout loss back in 2016. Clemson is on point defensively right now, having allowed just 61 points through four games. It's not as if the Tigers have been facing all cupcake opponents either, with two road games against Texas A&M and Georgia Tech. While the Tigers offense can be electric, I do still feel the Orange defense is slightly underrated entering this one. When they needed to step up against Florida State two weeks ago, they did so in a big way, allowing just seven points in a blowout victory. I don't expect to see the Syracuse defense completely wilt under the pressure on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 60 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ at AT&T Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The last time these two teams met last September we saw a wild game with Arkansas prevailing by a 50-43 score. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that Arkansas has scored a grand total of just 47 points over its last three games after putting up 55 points against FCS squad Eastern Illinois in its season-opener. While last week’s beatdown at the hands of Auburn was somewhat expected, there’s really no excuse for putting up only 17 points against North Texas, at home no less, the week previous. In that game, we didn’t see the ‘Hogs reach the end zone until the second quarter and not again until the final minute of the fourth quarter, when UNT was in full prevent defense mode. Defensively, I will give Arkansas credit for giving up just two offensive touchdowns in the first three quarters against Auburn last week. Special teams have been a bit of an issue for the ‘Hogs but that’s not really something we can account for when handicapping the total here. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Texas A&M’s blowout loss at Alabama last Saturday, but it’s not as if the total was torched in that contest and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that prior to that, the Aggies had allowed only 45 points combined through their first three games. Even in a tough matchup against Clemson, the Aggies gave up just two first half touchdowns and nothing at all in the fourth quarter of what turned out to be a nail-biter. Offensively, I’ll point out that A&M only managed two offensive touchdowns in the first half against Louisiana-Monroe two games back, with that game ultimately turning on a late first half blocked field goal for a touchdown. This total has been set too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado OVER 60.5 | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -107 | 84 h 42 m | Show |
NCAAF Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between UCLA and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Boulder on Friday night. The UCLA offense has had a tough time getting things going in its first year under the guidance of Chip Kelly, scoring a grand total of just 52 points through three games. This does have the feel of a ‘clean slate’ game, however, as the Bruins head out on the road for their first Pac-12 game of the season. And they’ll be facing a Colorado defense that probably isn’t quite as good as the stats may indicate, as it has faced a weak Colorado State offense and an FCS opponent in New Hampshire in two of its first three games this season. In the Buffaloes other game, they allowed well over 500 total yards of offense in a wild 33-28 victory over Nebraska. The good news for Colorado is that its offense has been better than anticipated and I don’t believe the UCLA defense will offer a great deal of resistance on Friday night. Colorado scored three offensive touchdowns in the first half against UNH last Saturday and it was a breakout performance by RB Travon McMillian as he ran for 162 yards on only 15 carries. Of course, the offense evolves around experienced QB Steven Montez. He didn’t have to do much against UNH last time out, but in his first two games, threw for 689 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception. He should have a field day against a very beatable UCLA defense that is still finding its way in the early going and just allowed five offensive touchdowns in a blowout loss against Fresno State, at home no less. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 67 | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 83 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Memphis and Tulane at 8 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in New Orleans on Friday night. We won with the ‘under’ in Tulane’s blowout loss at Ohio State last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well in this spot. Yes, the Green Wave got absolutely torched defensively against the Buckeyes but that was to be expected. Keep in mind, in their previous game, also on the road, they limited UAB to just two offensive touchdowns in the first three quarters. They held up well in their previous contest as well, albeit against FCS squad Nicholls State, not allowing a touchdown until the final 30 seconds of the first half en route to a 42-17 win. And of course in their season-opener they limited a pretty good Wake Forest offense to only 17 points in regulation time. While Memphis is certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, most of the Tigers damage has been done at home this season. In their lone road tilt, they scored just one first half touchdown in an eventual 22-21 win over Navy (I will point out that weather conditions were not favorable in that contest). Memphis’ other three games have all resulted in blowout victories, and it has scored 66, 59 and 52 points. Perhaps we see a bit of a letdown from the offense here as it hits the road for the first time since September 8th to face a 1-3 Tulane squad that certainly doesn’t draw a great deal of motivation. The Green Wave offense is not good this year and Memphis will certainly be focusing on playing better defensively after giving up 35 points against South Alabama last week. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Los Angeles on Thursday night. We won with the ‘over’ in the Rams victory over the Chargers last Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Vikings have seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games this season, the fact is, all three of those contests just as easily could and probably should have gone ‘over’ the number. A lot of points were left on the field in their opener against the 49ers as San Francisco in particular had a tough time finishing drives – keep in mind that was against a Vikings defense that was virtually at full strength, and at home no less. The Vikes followed that up with a wild 29-29 tie in Green Bay before returning home in a massive sandwich spot against the lowly Bills, shockingly dropping that game in blowout fashion. There’s no question Minnesota was caught looking past Buffalo and wasn’t sharp on either side of the football. The Vikes know they’ll need to be a lot better, particularly on offense, in order to hang with the red hot Rams on Thursday night. Los Angeles has gotten better offensively with each passing game this season. There really was no stopping Sean McVay’s offense last Sunday as the Rams moved the football at will against a banged-up Chargers defense. Now they face another quality defensive opponent, but one that is also missing a number of key cogs. I look for Rams WR Cooper Kupp in particular to have a big game in this spot after being generally held in check by the Chargers last week. He owns a considerable advantage against Vikings slot corner Mackensie Alexander in this one. The Vikings will be without their best pass rusher in Everson Griffen this week and are banged-up in the secondary as well. For a team that hasn’t performed particularly well defensively on the road, that spells major trouble against the Rams outstanding offense. I do believe the Vikes can hang in there on the strength of their offense, however, and they certainly have ‘bomb away’ potential should they fall behind. Dalvin Cook may be sidelined again on Thursday, but it should be the Minnesota passing game that exploits a couple of mismatches on the perimeter with Rams' corners Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib sidelined. Take the over (10*). |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL OVER 55.5 | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Miami at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this ACC matchup on Thursday night. North Carolina got off to a shaky start offensively this season but has been getting sharper with each passing week. Last Saturday, the Tar Heels pulled out a wild 38-35 victory over Pitt - their first win of the season. I look for them to build on that performance here, even against a quality Miami squad that has reeled off three straight wins since opening the season with a real stinker against LSU. Since getting off to a sluggish start against the Tigers, the Miami offense has exploded, scoring 171 points over its last 13 quarters of football. I don't expect the Tar Heels to offer all that much resistance here. Last week, North Carolina allowed four first half touchdowns against Pittsburgh. The last two meetings in this series have been low-scoring, totaling just 33 and 43 points. Keep in mind, this is the earliest matchup between these two teams since way back in 2008. It's worth noting that contest did play 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I don't see where the stops come from in this non-conference showdown on Monday night. The Steelers have been absolutely torched by two offenses at opposite ends of the spectrum in the Browns and Chiefs. The Bucs enter this matchup absolutely rolling on offense, and playing an extremely aggressive style that should bode well against a weak Steelers defense. The problem for Tampa Bay is, it will be going up against a supremely talented, not to mention highly motivated Steelers offense. We've yet to see Pittsburgh's best offensively but I believe there's a good chance we witness just that on Monday night. RB James Conner has had little trouble filling the absent Le'Veon Bell's role. Meanwhile, we can anticipate a big game out of WR Antonio Brown following last week's frustrations. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Detroit at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots defense isn’t an elite group to begin with and things have gotten worse on the injury front with both Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung expected to miss this week’s game. While the Lions are off to a miserable 0-2 start, they have continued to bomb away with Matt Stafford throwing for well over 600 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with four interceptions). There’s a good chance the Lions will be playing from behind again on Sunday night, which opens the door for another aerial assault from Stafford to his fantastic trio of wide receivers in Tate, Jones and Golladay. I don’t think Lions fans should have any false hope that their team can slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense here. Detroit’s two best defensive players, Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay are both expected to miss this game. That leaves the Lions defense completely exposed in this particular matchup. Brady should have little trouble carving up this Detroit secondary in particular, and will have no shortage of motivation after suffering that ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday. Expect to see both offenses keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in ideal conditions indoors at Ford Field. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams OVER 47.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between the Los Angeles Chargers and Los Angeles Rams at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at the L.A. Coliseum on Sunday afternoon. As long as linebacker Joey Bosa remains sidelined, the Chargers defense will continue to struggle. He’s out again this week and that leaves them in a really tough spot against one of the league’s best offenses in the Rams. There’s little reason to expect the Chargers to offer any sort of resistance against Todd Gurley and head coach Sean McVay will continue to put Jared Goff in position to succeed with a wealth of talented weapons around him. The interesting thing is that the ‘under’ has actually cashed in each of the Rams first two games. That has had more to do with the opposition than anything else, as they’ve gone up against two of the league’s more limited offenses in the Raiders and Cardinals. They’ll face their first real test here as the Chargers can score. Missing Corey Liuget from the offensive line certainly hurts their cause, but I still expect to see them manufacture a number of scoring drives against this tough Rams defense. Look for Keenan Allen in particular to turn in a big performance after not being asked to do very much against the lowly Bills last Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons OVER 53 | 43-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New Orleans and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a shootout at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday afternoon. We’ve actually cashed a number of ‘under’ tickets in this series over the years but I won’t hesitate to switch gears in this particular matchup. The Saints were somewhat surprisingly held to only 21 points against the Browns last Sunday, at home no less. That has most wondering whether they can get rolling again in this tough divisional road game. I don’t think the Saints will have any problem shaking loose offensively in this one, as they go up against a Falcons defense that is banged up, missing Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. Those injuries can’t be understated, especially when you consider the way the Saints like to attack. Look for another big game from New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara, who should be able to enjoy similar success to what we saw from Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey last week, when he caught 14 passes. I will say it’s hard to have a lot of faith in the Saints defense right now. Were they just a flash in the pan last season? It’s really too early to tell, but there’s no question the Falcons offense will look to attack early and often and I like the way they mixed things up last week, moving away from Julio Jones a little bit, particularly in the red zone after drawing so many questions following that disappointing Week 1 loss in Philadelphia. That’s not to say Jones won’t make a big impact here. He always seems to bring his ‘A’ game against the Saints and we should see a similar story unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins OVER 45 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Green Bay and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Redskins were involved in another low-scoring affair last week, putting only nine points on the board against the Colts. That of course came on the heels of a shutout victory in Arizona the week previous. Those two ‘under’ results are giving us some value with the ‘over’ here in Week 3 as Washington faces its toughest test of the season so far against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay is coming off a wild 29-29 result against the Vikings last Sunday. While Rodgers didn’t look completely comfortable early on in that game he eventually settled in, completing 30-of-42 passes for 281 yards and a touchdown. I expect to see him expand on those numbers here. I liked the fact that TE Jimmy Graham got going with six catches for 95 yards against the Vikes. He should have continued success against the ‘Skins in this spot. The Washington offense couldn’t get anything going against an improved Indianapolis defense defense last week but will be taking a step down in class here. There are going to be games where the Redskins offense really struggles this season. With that being said, I see this as a matchup they can exploit. The Packers are not all that stout over the middle and Washington has a QB in Alex Smith that excels in the short passing game, with a couple of targets that could be in for big days in TE Jordan Reed and pass-catching RB Chris Thompson. After failing to reach the end zone last week, putting 6’s on the board will clearly be a point of emphasis for Jay Gruden’s squad against the Packers. They know that ending drives with field goals won’t be enough to outlast Aaron Rodgers and that mentality lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair at FedEx Field on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-18 | UNLV v. Arkansas State OVER 66.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between UNLV and Arkansas State at 7 pm et on Saturday. This may not be a traditional shootout as I anticipate both teams ripping off their biggest gains on the ground, but I’m expecting a high-scoring result just the same. UNLV comes in with plenty of positive momentum following back-to-back blowout wins over UTEP and FCS squad Prairie View A&M. In those two games, the Runnin’ Rebels scored a whopping 98 points, thanks in large part to an explosive rushing attack. In each of the last two games, UNLV has had two players run for more than 100 yards and there’s a good chance we’ll see a similar story unfold on Saturday night in Jonesboro. Arkansas State has been involved in three very different games to open the season, and like UNLV has managed to win two of them. The Red Wolves opened the campaign with a rout of Southeast Missouri State before getting their doors blown off at Alabama and finally outlasting Tulsa in a bit of a slugfest last week. A return home should get the Red Wolves offense humming again, noting that QB Justice Hansen threw for six touchdowns in their lone previous contest here. Even against Alabama, Arkansas State was able to get its ground game rolling a little bit and it should have little trouble doing so against a porous UNLV defense. The Rebels have yet to show they can slow anyone down running the football and that should open things up for a wild, back-and-forth affair on Saturday night. We’re dealing with a high posted total for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Troy v. UL-Monroe UNDER 60.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Troy and Louisiana-Monroe at 7 pm et on Saturday. We’re dealing with a high posted total in this Sun Belt matchup on Saturday night in Monroe and I believe it will prove too high. Troy was involved in a slugfest at Nebraska last week. Of course, that low-scoring affair had a lot to do with the Cornhuskers missing their starting quarterback. Still, I’ll give credit to the Trojans defense for keeping Nebraska out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half and not allowing it to get there again until shifting into prevent defense in the game’s final three minutes. Since getting absolutely torched by Boise State in its season-opener, Troy has been able to gain some confidence on the defensive side of the football leading up to this Sun Belt opener. Offensively, it’s tough to know what to make of the Trojans as their lone explosion came at home against FCS squad Florida A&M. I do believe that Louisiana-Monroe can hold up better than it did in last year’s meeting, when it allowed a whopping 51 points. While the Warhawks ultimately lost in blowout fashion on the road against Texas A&M last week, they did hold their own for a while, allowing only two offensive touchdowns in the first half. That game may have turned on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown by the Aggies in the final two minutes of the first half. The week previous, Louisiana-Monroe went on the road and kept Southern Miss out of the end zone for the entire second half in a 21-20 victory. The Warhawks only managed two offensive touchdowns themselves in that one, adding another touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone. This game may have shootout potential but I believe the familiarity between these two squads, along with the fact that both are coming off physical matchups last week, will lead to a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 56 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Lexington on Saturday night. This is a showdown between two undefeated SEC squads and sets up as a potential slugfest as far as I’m concerned. It’s certainly not being priced that way as far as the total goes, however. While Mississippi State’s offense has grabbed all of the attention, it’s been the Bulldogs defense that I’ve been most impressed by. Through three games they’ve allowed a grand total of just 26 points and have yet to give up more than 10 points in a game. Last week’s rout of Louisiana-Lafayette may have looked like and played out like a cupcake matchup, but the Ragin’ Cajuns had scored 49 points in their season-opener and Sun Belt squads never shy away from dialing up their offense in non-conference matchups. The Bulldogs allowed an early first quarter field goal but then held the Ragin’ Cajuns scoreless until more than midway through the fourth quarter in that one. In a tougher test on the road against Kansas State, Mississippi State didn’t allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. Kentucky has given up just 46 points through three games and has seemingly gotten stronger defensively with each passing game. The Wildcats were certainly impressive in their lone true test so far this season, allowing only 16 points on the road against Florida two weeks ago. They held the Gators out of the end zone until midway through the second quarter in that contest. The Kentucky offense scored an early touchdown against Murray State last week but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the final two minutes of the first half. I believe both defenses can keep the opposing offenses at bay for stretches in this Saturday night showdown. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 47.5 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Texas at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We're dealing with a relatively low posted total in this game but that number is warranted in my opinion. We missed the mark with the 'under' in TCU's 40-28 loss to Ohio State last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. That game really got away from the Horned Frogs as a result of a couple of defensive scores by the Buckeyes, something we can never truly account for in our handicapping. Here, I look for the Horned Frogs defense to hold up well against a Texas offense that is good but certainly not great. Last week, the Longhorns delivered a 37-14 win over USC although it's worth noting they didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter in that game and were ultimately buoyed by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown in the third quarter. That game saw a scoreless fourth quarter. Note that these two programs met last November and TCU delivered a low-scoring 24-7 victory. This one may not stay in the 30's but I do believe it will stay 'under' the total that we're being offered. To put it simply, this is a matchup between two of the Big 12's best defenses. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Alabama UNDER 62 | 23-45 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas A&M and Alabama at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon. Texas A&M had little trouble bouncing back from a narrow loss to Clemson one week earlier, as it hammered Louisiana-Monroe 48-10 last Saturday. Now things get a whole lot tougher once again as the Aggies head out on the SEC road to face Alabama. Note that despite scoring 48 points in last week’s rout, the Aggies actually only managed two offensive touchdowns in the first half (they scored another on a blocked field goal return). Their ground game ultimately wore out the Warhawks in the second half and they added a couple of late scores to pad their lead, but it’s unlikely we’ll see the Crimson Tide wilt as this game progresses. Alabama has yet to be tested this season, rolling to blowout wins over Louisville, Arkansas State and Ole Miss. I do believe the Tide offense will face some resistance in this one. Remember, the Aggies did manage to limit an outstanding Clemson offense to only two first half touchdowns two weeks ago, and held the Tigers to just 17-of-27 through the air for less than 300 passing yards. Last year’s meeting between these two programs reached only 46 total points. We’re dealing with a much higher total this time around and I believe it will prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Tulane v. Ohio State UNDER 69 | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Ohio State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure where all of the points are going to come from in this game. Ohio State is coming off a huge 40-28 win over TCU last week and could suffer a bit of a hangover as it returns home to host a cupcake matchup with Tulane. I'm not convinced we'll see the Buckeyes keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in a game that should get out of hand in a hurry. Meanwhile, Tulane scored 42 points in its lone victory over FCS squad Nicholls State but just 41 points in its two other games combined, both losses against Wake Forest and UAB. I have a hard time envisioning the Green Wave scoring more than 14 points in this matchup. If that's the case, Ohio State would have to approach the 60-point mark to eclipse this posted total. I simply feel that this total has gotten out of hand. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 55 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Louisville and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. Last year’s meeting between these two teams approached the 60-point mark but I expect a much different story to play out on Saturday afternoon. Louisville’s offense isn’t the same in the wake of QB Lamar Jackson’s departure to the NFL. The Cardinals are 2-1 to start the season and that was to be expected given the opened up with Alabama before hosting Indiana State and Western Kentucky. While their poor offensive showing against Indiana State could be blamed largely on bad weather, there was really no excuse for scoring only 20 points, albeit in a win, against Western Kentucky last week. The Cardinals didn’t reach the end zone until the fourth quarter in that game. While they did give up a pair of first half scores, the Cards defense did toughen up the rest of the way and knows it will have to be even better against a quality opponent in Virginia this week. After manhandling Richmond and allowing only 20 points in a losing effort on the road against Indiana, the Cavaliers were put back on their heels a little bit at home against Ohio last week. That one turned into a shootout early on and we saw Virginia struggling to hang on defensively at times. We have seen this Cavs defense play well for extended stretches this season, however, and a date with the struggling Cardinals offense should benefit them here at home on Saturday. This may not turn out to be a defensive slugfest but I believe asking for nearly seven touchdowns to be scored is a bit much. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Georgia v. Missouri OVER 64.5 | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia and Missouri at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a shootout as the Bulldogs and Tigers renew acquaintances in an early matchup on Saturday afternoon. Georgia has scored 40+ points in all three games so far this season but will be facing its toughest test to date against undefeated Missouri. I think the bigger concern for the Bulldogs will be slowing down a Mizzou offense that has put up an impressive 131 points through three games. Even last week, as the Tigers hit the road for the first time this season, they absolutely lit it up, hanging 27 points on Purdue in the first half alone on the strength of three offensive touchdowns. Doing that against a defense as good as the Bulldogs is another matter entirely, but it is worth noting that they managed to score 28 points against Georgia in last year’s meeting. I like the way the Missouri passing offense sets up against the Bulldogs and I expect to see it bomb away for four quarters on Saturday afternoon. Keeping in mind that Mizzou allowed three offensive touchdowns in the first half against Purdue last week and Georgia hung six touchdowns, including five on offense, against Middle Tennessee State, I don’t believe the ‘Dawgs will have much trouble shredding the Tigers on Saturday. We’re dealing with a relatively high posted total in this one, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC UNDER 53 | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and USC at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Los Angeles on Friday night. The 'over' has gone a combined 4-2 in games involving these two Pac-12 squads so far this season. Washington State really shook loose offensively last week, scoring 59 points in a blowout win over Eastern Washington but that was to be expected. After facing Wyoming, San Jose State and aforementioned Eastern Washington this will obviously be the Cougars toughest test to date. While the Washington State defense can be vulnerable at times, it's not as if the USC offense has been rolling. The Trojans managed only two touchdowns last Saturday night against Texas. The week previous USC traveled to face Stanford and could only muster a field goal. Even against UNLV, the Trojans didn't score a touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half. While the Trojans did allow 37 points in Saturday's loss to the Longhorns, it gave up just one touchdown in the first half, and Texas returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown in the third quarter. The 'under' has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series and while we're dealing with a relatively low total this time around, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns UNDER 40.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between New York and Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is certainly a low posted total by today’s NFL standards but I have a tough time envisioning a game between these two teams eclipsing the number. The Jets absolutely exploded in their Week 1 win at Detroit, on Monday Night Football no less, and it’s apparent that most bettors are willing to give them a pass for last week’s stinker at home against the Dolphins. We won with the ‘under’ in that 20-12 loss this past Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Sam Darnold certainly looks like he has a bright NFL career ahead of him, but it’s still awfully early to be anointing him as the ‘next big thing’. He’ll face another tough challenge here, preparing for an underrated Browns defense on a short week. Simply put, I don’t see the Jets really expanding the playbook for Darnold in this particular matchup. Meanwhile, Cleveland is just trying to win a football game right now. The Browns have scratched and clawed their way to two near-misses against the Steelers and Saints, with little help from their offense, and certainly not from their kicking game. Like Darnold, Tyrod Taylor will be up against it here, even though the Jets don’t offer much of a pass rush - they will present some varied looks in the defensive backfield. I actually expect Taylor to have more success running the football than he will throwing it on Thursday night, which will help keep the clock moving. While special teams and defensive scores can always ruin an ‘under’ bet in this point range, I’m not going to let that steer me away from making this play on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 58 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday night. Tulsa has suffered back-to-back losses since opening the season with a win over FCS squad Central Arkansas. Even in that 38-27 win over Central Arkansas, the Golden Hurricane were only at 24 points until a couple of late fourth quarter scores put the game away. In their second game against Texas they didn't find the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. Then last week against Arkansas State, Tulsa scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't hit paydirt again until the fourth quarter. We won with the 'under' in Temple's surprising blowout win at Maryland last Saturday. That game got to 49 total points but it's worth noting that it featured three defensive or special teams touchdowns. Prior to that, the Owls had started the season 0-2 and in their last game didn't score a touchdown until the final play of the first half against a middle of the road Buffalo defense. In the Owls season-opener against FCS squad Villanova they didn't find the end zone until past midway through the third quarter. With all of that said, their defense has held up pretty well and I would expect more of the same on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Soldier Field on Monday night. Both of these teams were involved in relatively high-scoring affairs last week, with the 'over' going a perfect 2-0. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night. The Seahawks got a big day from TE Will Dissly last week against Denver. That was about the only positive to come from the Seattle offense on that day. Keep in mind, the Bears have a stout defense that limited Packers TE Jimmy Graham to just two catches for eight yards last week. Seattle is in tough here without WR Doug Baldwin. This is a bottom-tier offense with a tremendous starting QB in Russell Wilson. I'm not sure he'll be able to do enough to help the Seahawks hang a crooked number on the board on Monday. On the flip side, it's just too early in the Matt Nagy era for the Bears to really unleash their offense. We saw them sputter in the second half against the Packers last Sunday and I don't expect a sudden explosion here. The Seahawks are undermanned defensively but they'll show up on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers OVER 48 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Detroit and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. I leaned hard to the ‘under’ in the 49ers season-opener in Minnesota last week but ultimately decided to lay off. That one ended up finishing pretty close to the number despite a low-scoring first half, and the final total certainly could have been much higher were it not for missed opportunities by both sides. Here, I’m anticipating a bit of a shootout. The Lions couldn’t have looked any worse than they did in Monday’s blowout loss to the Jets. I do expect a bounce-back of sorts here, at least from the offense. Matt Stafford is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in football for a reason. Despite his awful performance on Monday, he’ll come back airing it out against a vulnerable 49ers defense on Sunday. The same goes for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He was good but not great but was also facing an elite Vikings defense, on the road no less, in last week’s season-opener. Expect to see him do a better job of finishing drives against the Lions awful defense in this matchup. Outside of Darius Slay the Detroit secondary is among the worst in the league. The ‘Niners should have little trouble taking advantage. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in the Jets season-opening win in Detroit (we weren’t close with that play) but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as New York returns home to host the Dolphins this week. Everyone is singing Sam Darnold’s praises but he will face a much tougher test here than he did against the Lions defense, which was an absolute joke on Monday night. Not only that but Darnold will be working on a short week of preparation following the Monday nighter. Expect another solid but perhaps not spectacular game from the rookie QB. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill did a nice job of managing the game against the Titans last Sunday and will have to play smart again this week as he faces an opportunistic Jets defense. Don’t count on Tannehill airing it out early and often in this contest. I would count on Miami serving the Jets with a heavy dose of their RB tandem in Kenyon Drake and Frank Gore in an effort to control time of possession. This total is actually a couple of points higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU UNDER 60 | 40-28 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and TCU at 8 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in this big early season showdown between the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs on Saturday night. Ohio State has faced no resistance in its first two games, rolling to home wins over Oregon State and Rutgers. But now the Buckeyes head to a neutral site (AT&T Stadium in Arlington) to face a much tougher opponent in TCU. The Horned Frogs have given up just 19 points through their first two games this season, albeit against two weak opponents in Southern and SMU. Last week, TCU got caught flat-footed on SMU’s opening drive and gave up a 51-yard touchdown run. But that was basically it as it tightened things up and didn’t let the Mustangs find the end zone again. Similarly, the Horned Frogs allowed a 55-yard touchdown pass against Southern in its opener. Look for TCU to really guard against giving up those big TD plays against an elite Ohio State offense this week. On the flip side, the Horned Frogs didn’t score an offensive touchdown until nearly midway through the second quarter against an awful SMU defense last Friday night. They had two defensive and special teams touchdowns in that contest, something you certainly can’t bank on seeing against a fundamentally-sound Ohio State squad. Most are calling for a shootout here, I’m just not sure we’ll see it play out that way on the field. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State UNDER 58 | Top | 42-25 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAF Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between New Mexico and New Mexico State at 8 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two rivals last season with New Mexico State prevailing by a 30-28 score. I believe it will be a struggle to get to that total in this year’s meeting, however. New Mexico opened the season with a wild 62-30 win over Incarnate Word, a cupcake matchup to open the season that the Lobos took full advantage of. They actually held their own last week as well, despite facing one of the best teams in the country in Wisconsin on the road. I like the way the Lobos held up defensively in that one early on, not giving up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half. The question is whether New Mexico will suffer from any lingering effects after facing a big, physical football team like Wisconsin. The good news is the Lobos will be going up against a New Mexico State offense that is still trying to find its way even as it plays its fourth game of the season on Saturday. Because of a first-year starter at quarterback and issues on the offensive line, the Aggies have really had to scale back the offense and I can’t see them really opening things up, or finding a great deal of success against a familiar opponent in New Mexico this week. The Lobos did gain a bit of traction running the football in a blowout loss to Utah State last Saturday and will aim to control the football and the clock again here. Defensively, the Aggies are dealing with some key injuries but on a positive note, didn’t give up an offensive touchdown against Utah State until the final six minutes of the first half last week. After facing Minnesota and Utah State on the road in back-to-back weeks, I’m sure the Aggies will be happy to be back home and facing a rival opponent. In what should be a tightly-contested affair I’ll back the ‘under’. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Houston v. Texas Tech OVER 69 | 49-63 | Win | 100 | 44 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Houston and Texas Tech at 4:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Houston’s rout of Arizona last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ this week as the Cougars hit the road to face Texas Tech. Houston has now scored exactly 45 points in each of its first two games but let’s face it, those numbers could have easily been higher. In their opener, the Cougars were very slow out of the gates, possibly thinking the game would be a gimme against an overmatched Rice squad. However, they were able to really turn it on in the second half, scoring four unanswered touchdowns to put the game away. We saw plenty of carry-over from that second half performance last week against Arizona as Houston scored three first quarter touchdowns and never looked back in a 45-18 victory. Here, I think the Cougars know they’re going to be in for a shootout and they certainly have the personnel in place to hang around for four quarters. Texas Tech didn’t look good in a season-opening 47-27 loss to Ole Miss with an early special teams touchdown really demoralizing the team. The Red Raiders certainly ‘got right’ last week though, scoring six first half touchdowns en route to a 77-0 rout of Lamar. Texas Tech can do it all on offense and should be able to do what Arizona couldn’t do last week and take advantage of an average Houston defense. This total has been kept in check perhaps because it’s early in the season and both teams still have a lot to prove. I can’t see this one playing out any other way than a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-18 | South Florida v. Illinois UNDER 59 | 25-19 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between South Florida and Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Champaign on Saturday afternoon. South Florida is coming off a wild 49-38 victory over Georgia Tech last week. That game essentially turned on a pair of kick return touchdowns for the Bulls in the opening quarter. It’s worth noting that USF scored only one offensive touchdown in the first half of that game. It’s also notable that the Bulls didn’t give up a single score from the four-minute mark of the first quarter until nearly four minutes into the third quarter. Keep in mind, USF posted a 34-14 win over Elon in its season-opener and didn’t give up a touchdown until the final two minutes of the third quarter in that one. It will obviously face a tougher test here, although I don’t believe the Illinois offense is all that intimidating. The Illini are off to a 2-0 start, winning back-to-back home games against Kent State and Western Illinois. I will point out that they didn’t score a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the second half against Kent State and not until more than midway through the second quarter against Western Illinois. Should they get off to another slow start here I’m not sure they’ll be able to suddenly flip the switch against a more capable opponent in USF. Defensively the Illini have been ‘good enough’ so far this season but will certainly realize the importance of toughening up after the Bulls hung a crooked number on Georgia Tech last week. Simply put, I believe this number has been set too high. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame UNDER 52 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 42 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Vanderbilt and Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Vanderbilt’s win over Nevada last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Commodores hit the road to face the Irish in South Bend this week. Vandy has put up a whopping 76 points in posting back-to-back wins to open the campaign. However, this will be its toughest test to date by far, facing a Notre Dame defense that has near NFL-level talent at a number of key positions. I will point out that despite putting up 41 points last Saturday, Vandy didn’t score a touchdown or points of any kind until nearly three minutes into the second quarter. The Commodores got rolling from there, but that was largely due to an inept Nevada offense that turned the football over four times. Similarly in Week 1, Vandy scored just one offensive touchdown before getting its second midway through the third quarter. Notre Dame is still working out the kinks in its own offense, having scored 24 points in each of its first two victories over Michigan and Ball State. The Irish defense has certainly made up for any offensive inefficiencies, allowing only 33 points through two games. Last week against Ball State, the Irish didn’t allow a touchdown until three minutes into the fourth quarter. Perhaps even more notable, Notre Dame didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter, essentially playing prevent defense at that point, against Michigan back in Week 1. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 55 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. While I’m not anticipating a true defensive slugfest between these two storied programs on Saturday afternoon, I do think we’ll see enough long, extended drives to keep this one ‘under’ the inflated total. Georgia Tech has split its first two games and those two contests couldn’t have played out much differently. After the Yellow Jackets cruised to a 41-0 victory over Alcorn State in their opener they got absolutely ripped in a 49-38 loss at South Florida last Saturday. It’s imperative that the Yellow Jackets get their defense right in this contest before facing Clemson next week and I believe this is a favorable matchup for them to do just that. Keep in mind, Georgia Tech gave up a pair of kick return touchdowns in the first quarter against South Florida last week, which really turned that game on its head early on. Pitt has also split its first two games, defeating Albany by a 33-7 score before getting blown out by Penn State 51-6 last week. The Panthers aren’t as bad defensively as that final scoreline would seem to indicate. Note that they did hold the Nittany Lions to only one touchdown before giving up a second in the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was a 14-6 game at halftime before things got out of hand in the second half, turned by a Penn State punt return for a touchdown late in the third quarter. After that score, the Panthers wilted. I’m not expecting this game to ever get into blowout territory for either side and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Temple v. Maryland UNDER 55 | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 40 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Temple and Maryland at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in this early kickoff matchup on Saturday afternoon. Temple is coming off a fairly high-scoring affair against Buffalo last week, falling by a 36-29 score. Keep in mind, that was a 12-7 game at halftime before a wild second half and fourth quarter in particular. The Owls didn’t score a touchdown in that game until the final play of the first half, and that was against a middle of the road to below average Buffalo defense. The Temple defense didn’t hold up particularly well in that game but did limit the Bulls passing attack to just 26 completions on 45 attempts for 275 yards. Maryland is coming off back-to-back wins to open the campaign (we won with the Terps in Week 1 against Texas). Last week the Terps ran roughshod over Bowling Green, cruising to a 45-14 victory. I will point out, however that the Terps didn’t score a touchdown in that game until the final three minutes of the first half. On the flip side, Maryland held BGSU to only 143 passing yards and the Falcons leading rusher had just 44 yards on the ground. The Terps didn’t give up a single score in the second half of that game. This is a relatively high total but it’s unwarranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis UNDER 59 | 22-59 | Loss | -112 | 81 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Memphis at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in this Friday night matchup in Memphis. Georgia State has split its first two games, winning a close one over Kennesaw State and losing in blowout fashion against N.C. State. Note that the Panthers didn't score their first touchdown (or points) of the game until the final minute of the first half against Kennesaw State. They got off to a much faster start against N.C. State, scoring on their first drive but then didn't find the end zone again. The bottom line is I expect Georgia State to have a tough time putting points on the board against the Tigers. On the flip side, Memphis absolutely throttled Mercer by a 66-14 score in its season-opener before falling 22-21 on the road against Navy in a physical contest last week. The Tigers offense has looked outstanding at times but got a little bogged down against the Midshipmen. Here, they'll simply be looking to bounce back from that setback, not necessarily aiming for style points. Off that battle against Navy, we could see a bit of a hangover effect in a game the Tigers should win with ease. I do like the fact that Georgia State allowed N.C. State to reach the end zone only three times in the first three quarters last week, and three of the Wolfpack's four touchdowns in the game were from two yards or less out. In other words, the Panthers did do a good job of limiting the long touchdown strikes, which they'll certainly need to protect against here in Memphis (Tigers RB Henderson had two big touchdown runs in the third quarter against Navy). I simply feel both teams will need to contribute to get this one over the lofty total, and I'm not convinced we see that here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 51 | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show |
NOTE START TIME: NCAAF ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Wake Forest at 5:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this ACC showdown on Thursday night. The 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings in this series but I believe that has been factored into this total. Boston College has gotten off to an incredible start having scored 117 points in rolling to back-to-back home wins over UMass and Holy Cross. Now the Eagles will face their first true test of the season on the road against conference opponent Wake Forest. In short, I expect the BC offense to keep rolling. Note that the Eagles have scored an incredible 82 points in the first half of their first two games this season. The difference is here on Thursday they likely won't be able to take their foot off the gas in the second half, and that certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Wake Forest followed up a rather ho-hum 23-17 win over Tulane in its season-opener before scoring 51 points in a rout of Towson last Saturday. The Deacons did whatever they wanted on the ground against the Tigers in that one. They'll face more resistance here, but I still expect them to put some points on the board. Note that even in that ugly victory over Tulane, QB Sam Hartman threw for nearly 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The problem was a pair of key interceptions. He'll certainly need to do a better job of taking care of the football in this one, but I do believe he's capable of doing so in this step-up game. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders OVER 47.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 10:20 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams in Week 2 of the preseason, as the Rams prevailed by a 19-15 score. Of course, we can throw that result out the window as Los Angeles sat its offensive stars throughout the preseason schedule. I'm expecting a wild, high-scoring contest on Monday night. Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. The Khalil Mack trade obviously has a lot to do with that. But even on offense, few are expecting much from Oakland. I believe that's precisely why the 'over' is a solid play tonight. The Raiders still boast plenty of talent on offense with QB Derek Carr, RB Marshawn Lynch and WR Amari Cooper. As far as I'm concerned all three of those players have a lot to prove this season and will see this showdown with the vaunted Rams defense as a really good opportunity to show that they're not going to be doormats this season. On the flip side, I'm not concerned at all about the Rams offensive starters not seeing game action in August. They'll be ready to go and in their second year under head coach Sean McVay's guidance I expect continued improvement and refinement in this offense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the first half of Monday's NFL double-header in Detroit. The Jets won their preseason opener by a 17-0 score over Atlanta but followed it up with three straight losses, scoring a grand total of just 38 points in the process. Sam Darnold takes over at quarterback but I certainly don't expect the Jets to throw him right into the fire in his first career road start, on Monday Night Football no less. Look for a heavy dose of the Jets running game in this one as they count on a combination of that and solid defensive play to shoot for an opening week victory. The Lions put up 33 points in their 'dress rehearsal' game in Week 3 of the preseason but that had little to do with the Detroit starters, with QB Matt Stafford completing just 9-of-18 passes. I'm not all that high on this Lions offense, even with the addition of veteran RB LaGarrette Blount, who should alleviate some of their concerns on the ground. I actually believe it will be the Detroit defense that shines in this contest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last year as the Patriots came back to win by a 36-33 score. That has most bettors anticipating another shootout on Sunday afternoon, but I'm not so easily convinced. The Texans were certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that game against the Patriots last season. I believe they have the potential to be even better on that side of the football this year. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense is missing a number of key cogs from a year ago and while they should cruise to another AFC East title, I'm not sure they're going to be the offensive juggernaut we've seen in years' past. Defensively, the Pats were shredded by Texans QB DeShaun Watson in what was really his 'coming out party' a year ago. Expect New England to do a better job of containing Watson this time around. I don't anticipate either team generating much on the ground in this one, and while that can sometimes mean we're in for an air show, I do have confidence in both secondaries to hold up well here in Week 1. Note that the closing total in this matchup last year was just 44.5 points at most books. We're dealing with a much higher number this time around - I'm not sure it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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