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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I had this total pegged at 45, maybe 45.5 if I'm being generous to the two offenses. Yet here we are, working with a total of 47.5 at the time of writing with the potential we see it bump up a half-point at some books in advance of Sunday's kickoff. We got the result we wanted in the late game on Conference Championship Sunday as the 49ers got shredded early before rallying for a wild 34-31 victory over the Lions (in which they would have covered the spread were it not for a late Lions touchdown). Note that the 'under' is 16-11 in San Francisco's last 27 games following an 'over' result and 6-3 in its last nine contests after giving up 30 points or more in its previous game, including a perfect 2-0 this season in that latter situation. There is reason to believe the Chiefs can move the football on this 49ers defense but I don't believe game script (this projects as a tightly-contested affair) will force Kansas City to play fast or bomb away. With that said, the Chiefs have attempted 30 or more passes 11 times going back to October 29th and didn't throw for 300 or more yards in any of those contests so even if they do throw the football more than we expect, it doesn't necessarily work against us. Andy Reid's team has evolved into one that relies heavily on its ground attack and short passing game to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten proceedings. That's precisely how they went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. I do suspect we'll see the 49ers continue to employ a run-funnel defensive gameplan in this contest in an effort to stamp out Kansas City's big-play potential through the air. The strength of this Niners defense is in the middle - a big reason it was so successful in keeping opposing tight ends under wraps all season long, and certainly in the playoffs. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce will draw plenty of prop bet money from recreational bettors leading up to Sunday's game and I don't think the sportsbooks mind that one bit. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense is elite. It presents challenges all over the field for the 49ers offense. While I'm higher than Niners QB Brock Purdy than some, he's going to have a difficult time trying to find his favorite target WR Brandon Aiyuk against the Chiefs lock-down corners. Meanwhile San Francisco TE George Kittle continues to deal with a nagging toe injury and might be best deployed as a decoy in this particular matchup. RB Christian McCaffrey will get his but he's essentially the only Niners skill position player that draws a favorable matchup here. There could be times where he's on an island trying to carry the Niners offense down the field. Again, any success McCaffrey has figures to keep the clock moving, effectively shortening this contest. The 'under' is 12-7 in the Chiefs last 19 games following a road win and a long-term 27-20 in their last 47 contests after an upset win away from home. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five games following a bye week and 23-12 in its last 35 contests in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Baltimore at 3 pm et on Sunday. While there are plenty of offensive stars on display in this matchup, headlined by the quarterback showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, I actually expect points to come at a premium on Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. I don't envision either team having a ton of success throwing the football. The Chiefs have done a tremendous job of containing mobile opposing quarterbacks over the years and job number one will be taking away Lamar Jackson's legs on Sunday. Of course Jackson is playing arguably the best football of his career right now so that's no easy task. I do think we'll see the Chiefs defense, which is relatively healthy considering the time of year, at least force the Ravens to go on long, methodical drives that may or may not end in 7's on the board. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense should feast on a Chiefs offense that has been gashed by injuries on the offensive line. Not only that but RB Isaiah Pacheco, who has been the team's unsung hero down the stretch, is playing on a bad toe and ankle. I would anticipate Kansas City using its short passing game and expect to see Patrick Mahomes flushed out of the pocket and forced to run the football on plenty of occasions on Sunday. Again, long, clock-eating drives could turn out to be the story of the game. Note that the 'under' is 8-1 in the Chiefs last nine games following a win by three points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. The Ravens have seen the 'under' go 10-6 in their last 16 games following a home win and a long-term 30-21 in their last 51 contests after a victory by 21 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 3 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential. The same thing could have been said for the Lions matchup with the Rams last week but the scoring fizzled in the second half following a blazing hot start from the two offenses. Here, I expect both teams to score early and often. The Buccaneers draw a favorable matchup from an offensive standpoint but a tough one defensively. QB Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his NFL career right now and were it not for a couple of drops on potential big plays to veteran WR Mike Evans last Monday, Tampa Bay probably would have approached 40 points against what was once considered an elite Eagles defense. Here, the Bucs draw a Lions defense that can't stop the pass. Yes, Detroit has snuffed out opposing ground attacks but that's not really what Tampa Bay is all about right now. We've already seen the Bucs offense thrive in previous indoor games this season, scoring 20 points in Minnesota, 26 in New Orleans, 37 in Houston, 20 in Indianapolis and 29 in Atlanta. QB Jared Goff and the Lions explosive offense should continue to cook in this plus matchup on Sunday. The Bucs will do what they do defensively and that involves plenty of blitzing. Goff should eat them up with quick passes, noting that the Lions possess a rock solid offensive line and one of the best blocking running backs in football in David Montgomery. It's a pick your poison type of situation for the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs will have to hope their offense can keep pace all afternoon long. Note that the 'over' is 7-2 in Tampa Bay's last nine road games as an underdog of seven points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is certainly flashing for the Lions noting that the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a win by three points or less, 19-11 in their last 30 contests played indoors and a long-term 122-103 when coming off an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening in part due to weather concerns with cold temperatures and potentially gusting winds playing a factor. I'm not overly concerned. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a bit of a stinker as Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory. Needless to say, the Texans are a much different team now than they were then (that previous matchup came in Week 1). Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal. I like the way this Texans offense has evolved over the course of the season. As good as the Ravens defense is, it is by no means perfect. Baltimore has actually allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Going back to mid-October, the Ravens were torched for 120+ rushing yards in eight of their last 12 games. There's undoubtedly a path forward for the Texans offense here and I'm confident we'll see them play loose. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is defensive-minded without question but I like the way he let the offense cook down the stretch and certainly in last week's playoff opener against Cleveland. Note that Houston has scored 20+ points in nine of its last 11 games, only failing to reach that number in a game where Stroud suffered a concussion and then when he missed the next week. Of note, Baltimore will be without top CB Marlon Humphrey for this game, easing the matchup for Texans breakout WR Nico Collins as well. Enough about the Texans, let's talk about the Ravens electric offense. I don't think Houston is going to have many answers against a well-rested Baltimore offense. The Texans haven't performed particularly well against the pass, in fact they've been downright awful in that regard at times. They've also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground, yielding seven rushing touchdowns over the course of the season. Everything is on the table for the Baltimore offense here and I don't expect it to take its foot off the gas pedal for one moment in this game. Note that the 'over' is 23-15 in the Texans last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent. When that previous blowout loss came on the road the 'over' has gone 15-7 in their last 22 contests. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-3 in the Ravens last nine games following a loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the Browns can score at will in this game as they look to continue their upward trajectory with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland was a run-first team earlier in the season, rushing the ball more than 30 times in eight of its first nine games. It was a much different story down the stretch, however, as the Browns ran the football at least 30 times just once in their final eight contests. They'll undoubtedly deploy a similar strategy here as the Texans simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the pass. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out the Texans staying competitive in this game. When they faced the Browns on Christmas Eve they scored 22 points despite accomplishing very little with Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the offense. The Browns defense simply hasn't travelled well this season, allowing at least 22 points in all eight road games with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 8-0 clip. Note that the 'over' is 29-15 in the Texans last 44 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. I also strongly believe this game has the potential for 'splash' plays from the two defenses, potentially leading to points on the board. Flacco has admittedly been turnover-prone. C.J. Stroud, while the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, will be up against a ball-hawking Browns secondary that looks like it will have the services of CB Denzel Ward after he tweaked his knee at practice earlier this week. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings defense held up better than most expected over the course of the season with Brian Flores' blitz-happy packages stemming the tide for much of the campaign. That hasn't been the case over the last three games, however. It seems that the book may be out on this incarnation of the Purple People Eaters. Minnesota has been smacked for 27, 30 and 33 points over its last three contests. The Vikes three opponents over that stretch - Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay - posted respective passing lines of 29-42-298, 30-40-246 and 25-34-193. According to head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will play their starters on Sunday, despite being locked into the third spot in the NFC. Regardless who takes the field, I expect them to find success against the Vikes sagging defense. On the flip side, Minnesota will be going for it with a slim chance of reaching the postseason despite its embarrassing home loss against the Packers in primetime last Sunday. Teams haven't even bothered running against the Lions lately and the Vikings don't figure to stray from that strategy (they've run the football just 27 times over their last two games). More passing equates to more clock stoppages. I don't envision Minnesota possessing the football for long stretches on Sunday but I do think it can punch through with some big plays against this struggling Lions secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 34.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a must-win game for the Steelers and they'll also need help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bills tomorrow night to clinch a playoff spot. While Baltimore will be resting its starters, I'm not convinced it will simply roll over in this divisional revenge game after dropping a 17-10 decision in Pittsburgh earlier this season. While the Ravens won't play the majority of their starters you can be sure they would still like nothing more than to end the Steelers season here. I do think it's in both teams best interest to effectively shorten this game. For the Steelers, they'll be looking to take the crowd out of the game and make this one as boring as possible in my opinion. The last thing they want to do is awaken the sleeping giant in this case. QB Mason Rudolph has been ultra-efficient through his first two starts but regardless who he is facing on the Ravens defense on Saturday, they'll be scheming up to stop him. Note that Baltimore has forced a whopping 10 turnovers over its last three games. For the Ravens, they simply want to get through this game unscathed. Backup QB Lamar Huntley has only appeared in mop-up duty so far this season. Last year, the final scores in his five games of extended action totalled just 19, 30, 16, 26 and 29 points. While the 'over' has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's last four games, the 'under' is a long-term 149-114 when it plays away from home. The 'under' is also 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 games following a victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-22 in the Ravens last 66 contests after scoring 25 or more points in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-23 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Saints have defied expectations from a totals perspective, at least on the road in recent weeks as the 'over' has gone 3-1 in their last four games played away from home. This is another promising spot for the Saints offense on the road against what has turned out to be a very beatable Buccaneers defense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay offense has thrived with Baker Mayfield at the helm. With the Saints missing CB Marshon Lattimore once again, it's all systems go for the Bucs offense again. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four straight 'unders' between these two teams previously since 2014-16. In their next matchup on that occasion they combined to score 55 points. The 'over' is a long-term 63-54 with the Saints coming off a road loss, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 46-40 in Tampa Bay's last 86 games following an upset win. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears OVER 43 | Top | 16-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. On a surprisingly pleasant Christmas Eve in Chicago weather-wise, we'll call for plenty of points in this NFC matchup. The Cardinals dropped a 45-29 decision at home against the 49ers last week and draw a similar matchup against an improved Bears defense here. With that said, Arizona has scored 24 or more points in consecutive games and it positioned quite well to thrive with the Kyle Murray-to-Trey McBride connection working wonders for the offense. Chicago has the potential to light it up as well as it looks to bounce back following last week's blown opportunity in Cleveland. The Bears didn't keep their foot on the gas against the Browns and ultimately let Cleveland off the hook. Against a reeling Cardinals defense we can anticipate Bears QB Justin Field going off in this matchup. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in the Bears last 27 games following an ATS loss. The 'over' is also 15-11 in the Cards last 26 games after giving up 40 or more points in their previous contest. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-23 | Seahawks v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. With the Seahawks low-scoring victory over the Eagles on Monday Night Football still fresh in the minds of most bettors, we're working with a relatively low total in Sunday's matchup in Tennessee. The Seahawks will turn back to Geno Smith at quarterback for this contest. There's reason to believe Seattle's offense can thrive with a run-first mindset against a Titans defense that quite simply has no answers against the run right now, allowing 158 and 148 rushing yards in their last two games. Keeping the Titans defense honest with Kenneth Walker at the ground attack should serve to open things up for a red hot D.K. Metcalf and the Seahawks passing game. Speaking of turning back to veteran quarterbacks, the Titans will go back to Ryan Tannehill under center on Sunday. Much like the Seahawks against the Titans defense, Tennessee's ground game should roll against a very beatable Seattle run defense. Tennessee also catches a break with Seattle missing standout rookie CB Devon Witherspoon. Note that the 'over' is 40-23 in the Titans last 63 home games after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 21-10 in Seattle's last 31 games following an upset win at home. Take the over (8*). |
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12-17-23 | Cowboys v. Bills OVER 49 | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Buffalo at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams delivered 'under' results last Sunday with the Bills upsetting the Chiefs on the road and the Cowboys laying waste to the Eagles at home. No offense is hotter than that of Dallas and QB Dak Prescott in particular. Ordinarily the Bills would pose a stiff defensive test but right now they're far too banged-up, missing key contributors at all three levels. Unless this game gets out of hand and the Cowboys take their foot off the gas, they should be able to get whatever they want on offense on Sunday. Buffalo's offense has been largely disappointing this season and while this is by no means a layup against a fierce Cowboys defense, I do think the Bills can find some success as they continue to build under the guidance of new coordinator Joe Brady. Brady has taken a different approach to the offense than we saw from Ken Dorsey. QB Josh Allen has been running more (effectively) and that's likely to continue against the Cowboys on Sunday. There's certainly a path for the Bills to stay competitive in this must-win game at home and that should lend itself to a high-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. It's worth noting that the Cowboys haven't posted consecutive 'under' results all season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-09-23 | Army v. Navy UNDER 28.5 | 17-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. The long 'under' streak in this storied rivalry came to an end in 2021 and last year's game found its way 'over' the total as well thanks to overtime (only 20 points were scored in regulation time). While we're dealing with an incredibly low posted total for the 2023 edition, I'm still willing to take a flyer on the 'under'. Between these two teams during the regular season we saw six shutouts pitched one way or another. Both teams actually opened up their offenses a little more this year, electing to sling it around the field a little bit rather than strictly operating option-based attacks. With that being said, Army comes into this game on a three-game winning streak and it essentially took passing out of its vocabulary in those three contests, connecting on just 8-of-17 throws for 119 yards. Last time out against Coastal Carolina, the Black Knights attempted just two passes (and didn't have a completion). This has all the makings of a chess match. Navy showed incredible patience over the course of the season, relying on its knack for turning over its opponents while methodically wearing down the opposition on offense. Even though the Midshipmen did throw it a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing, they still topped out at 163 passing yards and that came against an FCS opponent in Wagner. Take the under (8*). |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans OVER 47 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's all systems go for the Texans with breakout wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown expected to play on Sunday in this critical home matchup against the Broncos. We know what the Houston offense is capable of and it should push the Broncos defense much harder than either of their last two opponents did in the banged-up Vikings and Browns (both of those games were played in Denver). On the flip side, Denver's offense is no longer the plodding, methodical unit taking what it can get. The Broncos have reeled off five straight wins, scoring 24 or more points in three of their last four contests. Finally with at true RB1 in Javonte Williams and a rejuvenated WR duo in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, the Broncos can give the Texans defense some problems in this game. Note that the 'over' is 29-14 in the Texans last 43 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 31-13 | Push | 0 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The 49ers are coming off consecutive 'under' results, a curious outcome considering they've gotten as healthy as they've been all season on offense over that stretch with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel among those returning. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are fresh off a very low-scoring affair against the Rams as they dropped a 17-16 decision in Los Angeles. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday with a higher-scoring result than most are expecting. The Niners should feast on a Seahawks defense that has been relatively soft against the run and in the middle of the field. Yes, Seattle boasts a tremendous cornerback duo in Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon but that hasn't stopped opponents from attacking it relentlessly through the air. On the flip side, the Seahawks offense is admittedly banged up. QB Geno Smith is expected to play but is certainly at risk of sitting at some point due to his shoulder injury. As strange as it sounds, I like Seattle's offense with backup QB Drew Lock at the helm - especially as an 'over' bettor as his presence generally leads to plenty of 'splash' plays, often to his team's detriment. Seahawks home games have been considerably higher-scoring (47.2 points per game) than their road affairs (39.6 ppg) this season and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 54 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This matchup produced only 46 total points last season in a game that had a closing total of 63 points. So that potential shootout fizzled but I don't believe this one will. Ole Miss has been involved in its share of high-scoring affairs this season but its most recent contest reached only 38 points in a blowout win over Louisiana-Monroe. In general, most of the Rebels games have either involved them lighting it up or the opposition doing so. There's really been no in-between. Here, Ole Miss should break off its share of big plays on the ground against a Mississippi State defense that has been matador-like against the run when it's mattered most - for example it is just one game removed from getting ripped for 246 yards on 45 rush attempts against Texas A&M. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been all that electric this season. It's largely been a disappointment, in fact. However, Mississippi State has also run up against a pretty brutal schedule since Week 4, facing the gauntlet of Alabama at home, Arkansas and Auburn on the road, Kentucky at home and Texas A&M on the road with a couple of gimme non-conference matchups mixed in (the Bulldogs scored 41 points in wins over Western Michigan and Southern Miss). Note that the 'over' is 11-3 in Mississippi State's last 14 lined home contests, leading to an average total of 59.4 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-23 | Utah v. Arizona UNDER 46.5 | Top | 18-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games last week but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Tucson on Saturday. Utah is a better defensive team than it has shown in recent weeks but keep in mind it has run into USC, Oregon and Washington - three of the top offensive teams not just in the Pac-12 but in the country - in the last four games. Here, it draws a more manageable matchup in Arizona. The Wildcats have been rolling offensively but aren't likely to overwhelm the Utes talented defense. On the flip side, Utah has yet to complete 20 or more passes in a game this season, clearly missing QB Cam Rising. The Utes figure to lean on their ground attack again this week, although they'll be facing a Wildcats defense that has been stout against the run, holding opponents to just 3.2 yards per rush on the campaign. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers come out of their bye week and look to snap a three-game losing streak in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. With WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams set to return it should be all systems go for the 49ers offense. Note that San Francisco turned the football over three times in each of its last two games with a number of potential scoring drives going awry as a result. The Niners still scored 17 points in each of those two contests and should be able to improve on that production here. Jacksonville has scored 20 or more points in five straight games and I don't expect it to go away quietly on Sunday. You can be sure QB Trevor Lawrence hasn't forgotten a stinker of a performance at home against the Niners during his rookie season in 2021. That was back when Jacksonville was guided by head coach Urban Meyer and Lawrence's weapons included the likes of RB James Robinson and WRs Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault Jr. The fact that the Jags even scored 10 points on that day was admirable. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-23 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 43 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While Iowa is getting all the attention for its extremely low-scoring games in the Big Ten this season, Wisconsin isn't far behind - or shouldn't be moving forward anyway. The Badgers have scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games as they deal with a cluster of key injuries on the offensive side of the football. Their defense has been less impacted and checks in having held eight of nine opponents to 24 points or less this season. Northwestern has shown flashes on offense but has stagnated as usual for the most part. The Wildcats are coming off a 10-7 loss to Iowa last week. In four road games this season Northwestern has produced 7, 14, 9 and 7 points. Wisconsin has scored 35 and 42 points in the last two meetings in this series but I don't expect it to come close to that level of production on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. These two offenses balled out last Sunday as the Cowboys exploded for 43 points in a rout of the Rams while the Eagles rallied to secure a 38-31 road win over the Commanders. I expect nothing of the sort in terms of offensive production on Sunday as Dallas heads to Philadelphia. The Cowboys lived in the Rams backfield last Sunday, ultimately leading to plenty of mistakes and short fields for the offense. It's unlikely they'll enjoy the same level of success against an elite Eagles offensive line here. Philadelphia got away from its ground game last week but that was almost entirely game-script dependent as it trailed much of the way, ultimately running the football just 22 times. It was a similar story a few weeks ago against the Jets in New York. Here, I look for a far more run-centric approach from the Eagles in a game where they've been installed as a home favorite. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games where the line was posted between +3 and -3, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 50-20 in the Eagles last 70 games after their previous contest totalled 60 or more points and 17-6 in their last 23 home games after a win by seven points or less against a divisional foe, with both of those situations in play here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-23 | Seahawks v. Ravens UNDER 44 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll call for a Ravens letdown offensively after they scored 30+ points in each of their last two games. With that said, I'm not convinced the Seahawks are set up favorably here either as they come off last Sunday's thrilling come-from-behind win over the Browns. Seattle's offense appeared to be cleared for takeoff out of the gates this season but save for some flashes of brilliance (ie. the game-winning drive last Sunday), hasn't really lived up to expectations. Since scoring 37 points against Carolina on September 24th - its second straight game scoring 30+ points - Seattle has been held to 24, 13, 20 and 24 points over its last four games. The Seahawks lone tough defensive opponent over that stretch was Cincinnati and they were held to just 13 points in that contest. Both teams want to run the football consistently and I think this game stays tight enough all the way that they'll stick with pounding the rock - an 'under' bettor's best friend. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-5 in the Ravens last 19 games as a favorite and 9-2 in their last 11 home contests. Take the under (8*). |
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11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs OVER 50 | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Kansas City at 9:30 am et on Saturday. The Chiefs have seen the 'under' cash in four straight games entering Sunday's much-anticipated clash with the Dolphins in Germany. I look for a different story to unfold as this game has shootout potential. Miami did welcome back Jalen Ramsey, earlier than expected, from a knee injury last week, bolstering their defense. I still consider the Dolphins defense to be beatable and am confident we'll see the Chiefs rebound offensively following last Sunday's dismal showing in Denver. The Broncos defense has proven to have Kansas City's number in two meetings this season. The last time Miami lined up against Kansas City back in 2020 it was tagged for 33 points in a six-point home defeat. The Fins aren't likely to shy away from a shootout here. There's optimism that Terron Armstead could return to strengthen their offensive line. Even if he can't go, I look for Miami's offense to put forth a better showing than we saw in its most recent spotlight game against Philadelphia two weeks ago. The Chiefs defense has held up incredibly well this season, but has shown signs of sagging a bit lately, yielding 115, 139 and 153 rushing yards over its last three games. If the Fins can get their ground attack rolling downhill the sky's the limit for their passing game on Sunday as the Chiefs simply don't have the personnel to match up against the duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill (spoiler alert: No team does). Take the over (8*). |
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11-03-23 | Boston College v. Syracuse UNDER 51 | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston College and Syracuse at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I think everyone wants to believe in this Syracuse offense but it's just not there this season. The Orange have been held to 34 points in their last four games combined. That's no fluke. They're quite simply playing awful football right now. I do have faith in the Syracuse defense, led by its back-end, here at home, however. The Orange have allowed 38+ points in three straight games. This is a matchup they can handle though. Boston College mustered only 21 points in last week's win over lowly Connecticut. The Eagles have found their ground game and they're willing to hang their hat on it right now having rushed for 200+ yards in four straight games and 300+ in two of those contests. Defensively, the Eagles have incredibly held all but one of their eight opponents to 18 pass completions or fewer. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-23 | TCU v. Texas Tech OVER 59.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between TCU and Texas Tech at 7 pm et on Thursday. We're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in last year's matchup between these two teams. After all, that game reached 'only' 58 total points and both teams are coming off dismal offensive showings in their most recent game. I do think we'll see plenty of points on the board on Thursday, however, as this game has shootout potential. Few opponents have bombed away on the TCU defense this season. But we know it's possible as Colorado ripped the Horned Frogs for 38-of-47 passing for over 500 yards back in Week 1. While it has been somewhat game-script dependent, Texas Tech is coming off a pair of games in which it aired it out 49 and 37 times. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders ground attack has churned out 153 or more rushing yards in seven straight games. TCU won't shy away from slinging it all over the field either, noting that it has completed at least 21 passes in all eight games so far this season with three 300+ passing yard games. The Horned Frogs have racked up over 100 rushing yards in all eight games this season. Neither team has had a tendency to hold onto the football for long stretches with both averaging right around 27 minutes per game in terms of time of possession. I think that quick-strike potential will be there all night long in Lubbock. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers OVER 43.5 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way the Bengals set up in this game as they look to avenge a 2021 home loss against the 49ers. With that being said, I have plenty of respect for the oddsmakers and believe the 49ers are favored by nearly a touchdown for a reason on Sunday afternoon. So that leaves us well-positioned for points on the board as the Bengals check in healthy off their bye week and the 49ers appear in better shape back at home with QB Brock Purdy having shaken off the possible concussion he suffered on Monday against Minnesota. Speaking of injuries, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey looked no worse for wear on Monday and he'll be up against a Cincinnati defense that has been Charmin-soft against the run this season, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. San Francisco would be well-suited to employ a quick-strike offensive gameplan with Trent Williams likely to sit once again. Getting the ball out quickly will be paramount for Brock Purdy but keep in mind, the Bengals defense is loaded with ball hawks in the secondary, capable of leading to splash plays that either put points directly on the scoreboard or lead to short fields for a very capable Cincinnati offense. I think this is a game Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had circled. As I mentioned, the last time these two teams met in 2021, Burrow threw for 348 yards and two touchdowns in a 26-23 home loss against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers squad. Of note, Deebo Samuel ran the football eight times for 37 yards and a touchdown in that game but was rendered ineffective in the passing game. Samuel won't play on Sunday but McCaffrey can certainly fill the void out of the backfield. The duo of George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk went off for 19 (yes 19!) catches for 213 yards and two touchdowns in that 2021 meeting. Take the over (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week and that's led to this total being bet up a few points since opening. I believe it's a move in the wrong direction. The Saints have aired it out 50+ times in consecutive weeks. That's not how this offense is built as head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr are as risk-averse as it gets. I do expect the Saints to find some success in this game but road teams haven't been running away and hiding on the Colts here in Indianapolis this season with their four home games all decided by 10 points or less. Indy put up a whopping 38 points against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not counting on a repeat performance. After turning the football over four times in each of the last two weeks, there's reason to believe we'll see Shane Steichen's Colts scale back their offensive gameplan for QB Garnder Minshew against an elite Saints defense on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-23 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 47.5 | Top | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week - in the last two weeks, in fact. I expect a reversal of course here on Saturday as the Ducks travel to face the Utes. Oregon has looked downright unstoppable at times this season but Washington State actually managed to lay out a pretty good blueprint for slowing the Ducks high-powered offense for the better part of the first half last week. I expect the Utes, who own one of the best defenses in the nation, to turn in a strong performance here at home, where they've allowed just 39 points in four games this season. Note that last year the Utes travelled to Autzen Stadium and limited the Ducks to just 20 points in a three-point defeat. On the flip side, the Ducks defense doesn't get nearly the credit or attention it deserves, largely due to the team's electric offense. Favored on the road, there's nothing for Oregon's defense to fear with the Utes still dealing with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-23 | UTEP v. Sam Houston State OVER 36.5 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Sam Houston State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I think UTEP 'under' bettors have been lulled into a false sense of security after they reeled off three consecutive 'under' results. Tonight's opponent, winless Sam Houston State, has found a little something offensively in recent games with QB Keegan Shoemaker showing signs of progress, throwing for six touchdowns and just two interceptions while running for 124 yards over the last three games. The Bearkats haven't stuck with the run at all this season but figure to feast on a UTEP defense that has hemorrhaged 5.1 yards per rush this season if they so choose. Sam Houston State's defense hasn't lived up to expectations this season, part of that has been due to simply being on the field way too much thanks to an inefficient offense. Miners RB Deion Hankins has gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for 265 yards over the last three games and I expect him to be the focal point of the offense here as well. While run plays are generally an 'under' bettors best friend, I think there's a good chance UTEP runs all over the Sam Houston State defense on Wednesday. Sitting at 0-7 on the campaign, the Bearkats certainly haven't learned how to 'take the air out of the football' playing with a lead at this level (it's their first year in FBS) and I feel that lends itself to a back-and-forth affair that creeps 'over' the low posted total on Wednesday. Take the over (8*). |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers got bogged down offensively in a bad weather game (against a very good defense) in Cleveland last Sunday ending their streak of five straight games scoring 30 or more points to open the season. I expect them to pick right back up on Monday as they draw a mouth-watering matchup under the Bank of America Stadium roof in Minnesota. The Vikings only hope on defense is that their blitz-happy nature can force 49ers QB Brock Purdy into a couple of crucial mistakes but I'm more confident in Purdy's ability to pick apart a very beatable Vikes secondary. Even without all-world WR Justin Jefferson, I do think the Minnesota offense can test an extremely stout 49ers defense. Rookie WR Jordan Addison flashed in the absence of JJ last Sunday in Chicago. The Vikes offense got off to a strong start in that contest before slowing down in the second half. While most have given up on RB Alexander Mattison, I think he has plenty of tread left on his tires. Note that he contributed a touchdown run in Minnesota's wild 34-26 loss in San Francisco the last time these two teams met in November of 2021. The Vikes manufactured 26 points in that contest despite Jefferson being held out of the end zone. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Minnesota priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the last three seasons with that situation totalling an average of 61.2 points. Even if we downgrade the Vikes offense with Jefferson sidelined, they still figure to approach the 20-point mark. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 40 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Jacksonville and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While the contrarian in me would love to back the 'over' with the Saints riding a six-game 'under' streak to start the season, I don't see where the points are going to come from on Thursday night in New Orleans. While it may be lost on the average fan or bettor, the Saints have major issues on their offensive line with a number of players either injured or downright ineffective. The Jaguars boast a pass rush that's capable of taking advantage of the Saints o-line woes and I think that leads to New Orleans employing a rather conservative offensive gameplan on Thursday night. We can expect plenty of dump-off passes from QB Derek Carr to RB Alvin Kamara against a Jags defense that concedes such plays regularly. While the Saints wide receivers do have a favorable matchup against a Jags secondary that has been leaky at the best of times and will be missing key CB Tyson Campbell, I'm not convinced Carr will have enough time in the pocket to take advantage. On the flip side, the Jags will either trot out QB Trevor Lawrence on a short week on a gimpy knee or backup C.J. Beathard who has barely seen an NFL field over the last few seasons. Either way, expect Doug Pederson to employ a similarly conservative gameplan to that of the Saints. RB Travis Etienne will likely be force-fed in this game but whether that leads to anything other than modest gains remains to be seen as the Saints defense has yielded just 3.5 yards per rush this season and has yet to allow an opposing running back to reach the end zone. The Jags were involved in a game that totalled 57 points last week but that actually sets us up nicely here as the 'under' is 11-3 the last 14 times they've come off a game that totalled 50+ points, resulting in just 39.7 total points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers UNDER 51 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Dallas has yet to see consecutive games go 'over' the total this season and I don't think we'll see that change on Monday night. Last week's debacle against the 49ers can't be pinned on the Cowboys defense. Dallas turned the football over four times in that contest. If you're going to give a team as good as the Niners that many extra possessions, they're going to take advantage and they did scoring 42 points. Here, I look for a much cleaner performance from the Cowboys offense while the defense bounces back as well. While Dallas has proven to be pass-happy with Mike McCarthy calling the plays, it has still topped out at just 253 passing yards in a game this season. I look for the Chargers to employ a balanced offensive attack with RB Austin Ekeler back at full strength. The loss of WR Mike Williams to a season-ending injury hurts against a defense like the Cowboys. Keenan Allen remains an elite wide receiver but not necessarily a field-stretcher like Williams is. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 27-13 with the Cowboys coming off a road loss by two touchdowns or more while the 'under' has gone 60-39 in the Chargers last 99 home games that have seen a total set at 45.5 or higher. Take the under (8*). |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks v. Bengals OVER 45 | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's not being priced like it but I believe this game has shootout potential as Seattle comes out of its bye week with a date with the Bengals in Cincinnati. This matchup sets up favorably for the Seahawks offense as Cincinnati checks in allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per rush on the season. I always think of Seattle as a run-first team under Pete Carroll and sophomore RB Kenneth Walker is quietly having a terrific season. Of course, that doesn't mean that the Seahawks aren't comfortable taking to the air. There's reason to believe QB Geno Smith will be more comfortable in the pocket this week with a trio of starting offensive linemen set to return. When given time, there's no reason the Seahawks offense shouldn't be able to take the lid off the Bengals pass defense will field-stretchers D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Locket and even Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has yet to have a breakout performance. There's little reason to worry about the Bengals offense after they feasted on the Cardinals in Arizona last week. QB Joe Burrow appears to have put his nagging calf injury behind him and Seattle always seems to be vulnerable on defense, regardless the personnel it sends to the field. When the Bengals offense is right, it is one of the most dynamic in the entire NFL. Take the over (8*). |
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10-15-23 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings season is obviously swirling down the drain following another loss last Sunday, not to mention the fact that all-world WR Justin Jefferson will miss a considerable number of weeks due to injury. With that being said, Minnesota is in a smash spot against the Bears on Sunday and should finally be able to get rolling offensively. Thought to be one of the best 'over' bets on a weekly basis out of the gates this season, you would have to go back to Week 2 to find the last time a game involving the Vikes found its way 'over' the total. That should change here. The Bears defense has already given up a whopping eight rushing touchdowns through five games this season. Chicago's secondary has been ravaged by injuries and even without Jefferson, Minnesota's passing game remains dynamic with rookie WR Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and TE T.J. Hockenson in line to eat on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, it's all systems go for Bears QB Justin Fields after he got going against the Commanders last week. Minnesota has managed to pick off just one pass all season in contrast with eight passing touchdowns allowed. That's about par for the course given the Vikes personnel deficits in pass defense. I can't imagine Chicago bothering to bang its head against the wall running the ball in this game, instead electing to attack Minnesota's burnable secondary through the air. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 36 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Chiefs are well-positioned to feast on a matador-like Broncos defense on Thursday night. With that being said, we've seen Kansas City play down to the competition in these primetime games in recent years and it's not as if the Chiefs offense has been humming, scoring 27 points or less in four of five games this season and now playing on a short week with TE Travis Kelce banged-up (but likely to play). As for the Denver offense, it figures to get stuck in the mud against a Chiefs defense that has quietly gone about its business, holding all five opponents to 21 points or less this season. There's absolutely nothing appealing about this matchup as far as the Broncos offense goes with the Kansas City defense all but eliminating opponents' big play potential and Denver unable to stretch the field, no matter the opponent. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 15-3 with the Broncos coming off three or more consecutive games in which they allowed 25+ points. The 'under' is also a long-term 42-22 with the Chiefs installed as a home favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take the under (8*). |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders OVER 45 | 13-17 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. There's a lot the Raiders can do offensively to stay competitive in this football game. RB Josh Jacobs is well-positioned to go off against a Packers defense that has barely laid a hand on opposing running backs this season. While Jimmy Garoppolo's return leads to many downgrading the Raiders offense, I'm not as down on him as most. The Packers secondary is still banged-up with CB Jaire Alexander labelled with a questionable tag, even with the team being idle since a week ago Thursday. LB De'Vondre Campbell's absence can't be understated either. Meanwhile, it's back to all systems go for the Packers offense with RB Aaron Jones likely to return and WR Christian Watson unlikely to be as limited as he was in his return against the Lions. The Raiders vaunted pass rush hasn't been getting home nearly enough so far this season and their secondary is low-rate at best. This sets up as a favorable spot for Packers QB Jordan Love to show off his skills after a miserable performance against Detroit. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-19 with the Packers coming off a home loss and 18-7 with the Raiders playing at home off a loss by a touchdown or less against a divisional opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers UNDER 45.5 | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys are expected to get some reinforcements back on their offensive line in time for Sunday's showdown with the 49ers in Santa Clara. As strange as it sounds, I believe that works in our favor with the 'under' as it should allow Dallas to at least possess the football for longer stretches, chewing up plenty of clock and effectively shortening this game. Given how efficient the Niners offense has been since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback late last season, the less they have the football the better as far as the Cowboys are concerned. Dallas will likely be banging its head against the wall for much of the night trying to run the football as the Niners defense has proven to be a brick wall in that regard. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aerial attack has been lukewarm. QB Dak Prescott has attempted 25, 38, 40 and 36 passes in four games this season yet has topped out at just 253 passing yards. On the flip side, this is a likely regression spot for the 49ers offense against an elite Cowboys defense. Dallas did get to see this Purdy-run offense in action in the playoffs last January, limiting it to 19 points and 312 total yards, albeit in a losing effort. Take the under (8*). |
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We're looking at a classic overreaction to last Sunday's results in my opinion as this total has climbed a number of points since opening. The Jets offense went from lifeless to inspired thanks to a stunningly sharp performance from QB Zach Wilson against the mighty Chiefs last Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Broncos hung 34 points on the lowly Bears in a massive come-from-behind victory in the Windy City. I'm taking both of those results with a grain of salt, however, as I believe the jury is still out as to how efficient or explosive these two offenses can be. The Jets aren't going to win many games pinning their hopes on an offense that has been of the pop-gun variety at best so far this season. I wouldn't anticipate them opening up the playbook too wide for Wilson in a hostile environment against an opportunistic Broncos defense on Sunday. On the flip side, Denver's furious rally last week came against a hapless Bears defense. I expect the Broncos to go back to a rather conservative offensive gameplan against an elite Jets defense. Note that these two teams just met here in Denver last October with New York prevailing in a 16-9 slugfest. Two years ago on this same field, the Broncos pitched a shutout in a 26-point rout. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 24-11 with the Jets playing on the road off three or more consecutive losses with that situation producing an average total of just 36.3 points. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 with Denver coming off three straight games in which it allowed 25 or more points, as is the case here, leading to just 38.3 total points on average in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots OVER 39 | 34-0 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I understand the logic behind the low posted total in this matchup between two lukewarm (at best) offenses. With that said, I think we're in for a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. The Patriots are severely depleted due to injuries on the defensive side of the football. We're talking about a who's who of Pats defenders that will be forced to miss Sunday's contest including DE Matt Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez. That opens the door for a tentative Saints offense to enjoy a breakout performance here. The question becomes whether the Patriots offense can hold up its end of the bargain. Counting on point production from this unit has been dicey at best this season but I do think coming off an embarrassing 38-3 loss in Dallas last week we will see the Patriots provide an answer offensively back at home. There's enough talent on this New England offense to produce more than the 55 points it has put up through four games (combined). The Saints defense has looked elite but let's pump the brakes a bit here, noting they've still allowed at least 15 points in all four games and haven't exactly faced a slate of offensive juggernauts, going up against Tennessee and Tampa Bay at home and Carolina and Green Bay on the road. In nine all-time meetings in this particular series we've seen a scoring floor of 41 points and a ceiling of 57. That's good enough for me as this one finds its way 'over' the total. Take the over (8*). |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on a Thursday night last season, the result was a predictable snoozefest that went Washington's way by a score of 12-7. While few are expecting much entertainment from this Thursday's rematch, I actually think we could be in for some offensive fireworks. Both teams thrived offensively last Sunday with both falling a field goal short, albeit in much different fashion. The Bears coughed up a three-touchdown lead in an eventual 34-31 loss to the Broncos, at home no less. Meanwhile, the Commanders gave the mighty Eagles all they could handle on the road in a 31-28 overtime defeat. Chicago's offense sputtered in this matchup last year but should confidently attack a leaky Commanders back-end on Thursday with QB Justin Fields coming off a confidence-building performance against Denver. While the Bears offensive line has been downright offensive so far this season, help is on the way in the form of left guard Teven Jenkins, who is expected to return from a calf injury. Washington has been wildly inconsistent on offense. That's quite simply what you're going to get with Sam Howell as your starting quarterback. I do think we'll see the Commanders get whatever they want on the ground in this game with the underrated RB duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson poised to go off against a Charmin-soft Bears defensive front. Likely to have plenty of time to operate in the pocket, Howell figures to take his shots against an injury-depleted Bears secondary as well. Chicago is allowing a ridiculous 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with the Bears playing on the road off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons, as is the situation here, with that spot producing an average total of 53.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech OVER 59 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 60 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech at 8 pm et on Thursday. Last week's potential shootout involving Western Kentucky fizzled as Middle Tennessee State couldn't get anything going offensively in what turned out to be a lopsided affair. Here, I do expect that shootout to develop as the Hilltoppers head out on the road to face Louisiana Tech in Ruston on Thursday. While the Bulldogs allowed just 10 points in last week's victory, that came against one of the weakest offenses in the country in UTEP. They'll be facing a much different animal this week as Western Kentucky has displayed a sky-high scoring ceiling this season, putting up 41, 52, 10 (against Ohio State), 24 and 31 points. Note that Louisiana Tech allowed three touchdowns over a 14-minute stretch against a lukewarm Nebraska offense just two weeks ago. The Bulldogs also gave up 40 points against North Texas and 38 against SMU earlier this season. The question is whether Louisiana Tech can ramp up its own offense to keep pace. It remains up in the air whether QB Hank Bachmeier can return from injury for Louisiana Tech this week. Even if he can't go, I think Jack Turner can get the offense going in his third consecutive start. We saw positive flashes in that aforementioned game against Nebraska as he threw for 292 yards and a score while also gaining positive yardage on the ground. The Bulldogs do have gamebreakers around Turner in RB Tyre Shelton (104 rush yards on 16 carries last week) and Ole Miss transfer WR Smoke Harris. (returned a punt for a touchdown last week). Take the over (8*). |
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10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think both of these defenses are being lumped into the 'bad' category three games into the season but I'm not sure it's warranted. The Broncos got schooled by the Dolphins explosive offense last Sunday, allowing a ridiculous 70 points in a 50-point defeat. Meanwhile, the Bears gave up 41 points on the road against the Chiefs. Here, both defenses catch a break as we're talking about two of the slowest and most punchless offenses in the entire league. Broncos head coach Sean Payton clearly isn't comfortable dialing up many aggressive plays down the field for QB Russell Wilson. The same goes for the Bears with QB Justin Fields as they continue to waste his talent with tentative play-calling. I can't help but feel we're in for a game where the two offenses move up and down the field but accomplish very little on the scoreboard Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last three meetings in this series have produced 23, 32 and 30 total points. The 'under' is a long-term 41-16 with the Bears playing at home as an underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 37.2 points scored in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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09-30-23 | Utah State v. Connecticut UNDER 51.5 | 34-33 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Saturday. Everyone is waiting for Utah State to repeat its 78-point explosion earlier this season against Idaho State but it's just not going to happen. The Aggies did put up 38 points (in a losing effort) on the road against James Madison last week but that was thanks in large part to five Dukes turnovers. I expect Connecticut to take care of the football at the very least on Saturday (turnovers aren't really something we can accurately predict) as it looks to salvage something from this three-game homestand. The Huskies are 0-4 to start the season, topping out at 17 points in a game. While Utah State has given up its share of points this season, this is no gimme matchup for a sputtering UConn offense. Remember, the Aggies did hold Iowa to 24 points on fewer than 300 total yards of offense in its season-opener on the road, so they're capable of rising to the occasion defensively here. The Huskies gave up 31 points in last year's matchup with Utah State but that was on the road against a more talented Aggies offense than the one they'll face on Saturday. Utah State's top two contributors on that day were RB Calvin Tyler Jr. and WR Brian Cobbs. Both have since moved on and were late cuts at NFL training camps in August. Take the under (8*). |
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09-28-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky OVER 60 | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Western Kentucky enters this game as a considerable favorite but I don't have a lot of confidence in the Hilltoppers 'taking the air out of the football' at any point in this game. WKU ranks 104th in the country in time of possession. The Hilltoppers play fast but are coming off a poor offensive showing in last week's 27-24 loss at Troy. I don't expect them to have any trouble bouncing back in that department here at home, where they've put up a whopping 93 points in two games this season. The one thing Middle Tennessee State does have going for it here is the 'revenge' factor as it has lost four straight meetings in this series. The Blue Raiders have a quarterback worthy of our support in Nicholas Vattiato. He's proven more than capable of moving the football through the air and on the ground. We've yet to see them hit full stride this season but I do think the Blue Raiders have the right personnel around Vattiato to have a breakout performance here. Watch for WR's D.J. Chisolm and Elijah Metcalf along with RB Frank Peasant. All three are potential gamebreakers. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 52 points. That was a sloppy contest that featured five turnovers between the two teams. I like the fact that both teams are coming off a loss this time around as I believe that leads to aggressive play-calling here. Take the over (8*). |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Tampa Bay at 7:15 pm et on Monday. The Buccaneers have displayed a rock solid offensive floor in this particular matchup in recent years, putting up 45, 27, 28 and 31 points in four meetings going back to 2015 including two since 2021. No, Tampa Bay doesn't have Tom Brady running the show anymore, but I do think it can find success with Baker Mayfield working against what looks to be a pass-funnel Eagles defense so far this season. Injuries to Avante Maddox and Nakobe Dean have certainly played a role in Philadelphia's early-season deficiencies on the defensive side of the football. On the flip side, this is a double-revenge spot for the Eagles after dropping each of its last two matchups against the Bucs. Note that Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 25.7 points per game when coming off consecutive contests in which it gave up 17 points or less over the last three seasons (six-game sample size), leading to an average total of 49.5 points in that situation. The Eagles offense has yet to really hit its stride through two games but still managed to put up a total of 59 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-23 | Chargers v. Vikings OVER 54 | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is the highest total on Sunday's board and for good reason. While the Chargers are off to an 0-2 start, this might be one of their best matchups of the entire season as they face a Minnesota defense that doesn't get to opposing quarterbacks and doesn't defend the pass. Austin Ekeler is sidelined but that's of little consequence as the Chargers should be able to relentlessly attack the Vikings defense through the air on Sunday. Note that Minnesota is yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush this season, opening the door for Los Angeles to get whatever it wants offensively in this one. Likewise, the Vikings find themselves in a smash spot offensively as they are expected to welcome back a pair of key cogs on their offensive line in Christian Darrisaw and Garrett Bradbury. The sky really is the limit for this Minnesota offense, as we've seen glimpses of against the Bucs and Eagles in the first two weeks of the season. With the Chargers missing LB Eric Kendricks and perennially under-achieving on defense the door is open for the Vikes to go off at home on Sunday. Take the over (8*). |
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09-24-23 | New Mexico State v. Hawaii OVER 56.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Mexico State and Hawaii at 11:59 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this game riding two-game 'under' streaks. I look for a different story to unfold as they match up on Saturday. New Mexico State certainly isn't known for its offense but it has come around with dual-threat QB Diego Pavia running the show. The Rainbow Warriors defense entered the season with some optimism thanks to plenty of returning talent. A season-ending injury to LB Logan Taylor set them back after getting off to a rough start. The good news for Hawaii is that it does have a pulse on offense this year. You wouldn't know if based on their lukewarm performance on the road against Oregon last Saturday but this group is capable of balling out, especially against a beatable defense like the Aggies. Both teams have shown sky-high ceilings in terms of offensive production in this matchup with New Mexico State putting up 45 points despite possessing the football for just over 27 minutes in last year's meeting. Hawaii is just one year removed from hanging 48 points on the Aggies and has scored 26 points or more in five straight meetings in this series. Take the over (8*). |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 22 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington State at 7 pm et on Saturday. Beavers QB D.J. Uiagalelei has looked like the right fit since transferring from Clemson, where he never lived up to sky-high expectations. With that said, he's been able to ease into proceedings with Oregon State by facing San Jose State, UC Davis and San Diego State in the first three games with the latter two contests coming at home. I do think the Beavers are in for a challenge on Saturday as they travel to Pullman to take on fellow undefeated Washington State. While the Cougars are coming off a 64-point explosion last Saturday, expectations should be tempered noting that came against an FCS opponent in Northern Colorado. This will be their toughest test to date - certainly from a defensive standpoint, with Oregon State having allowed a grand total of 33 points through three games. Back to Uiagalelei for a moment, he is coming off a two-interception game against San Diego State and I do expect the Beavers to scale things back a little here against an opportunistic Washington State defense. The Cougars boast one of the best pass rushes in the country led by ends Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking from the Beavers on Saturday as they look to get the football out of Uiagalelei's hands quickly and into the hands of their playmakers. The story isn't all that different for the Cougars. QB Cam Ward is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in my opinion. Yet, in a similar matchup two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin he completed just 20-of-32 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns - an efficient if not explosive performance. Ward was sacked seven times in the Cougars first two games against FBS foes this season so like the Beavers, I think we'll see the Cougars lean heavily on their short passing attack (and ground game) in an attempt to control proceedings at home on Saturday. This was an extremely high-scoring series from 2013 to 2020 but since then we've seen each of the last two matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total, including last year's 24-10 Oregon State victory in Corvallis. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue UNDER 53.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Purdue at 7 pm et on Friday. Wisconsin entered this season with a new look on offense, aiming to ratchet up the pace and sling the football around the field a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing. So far, it's been a mixed bag. The Badgers opened the season with a dominant performance against Buffalo, rolling to a 38-17 victory. From there they travelled to face Washington State and dropped a 31-22 decision. Last week they forced six turnovers in a 35-14 home win over Georgia Southern. Wisconsin is in for a tough test on Friday as it faces a Purdue squad that will be in a foul mood following a 35-20 home loss to Syracuse last Saturday. Don't sleep on the Boilermakers defense. They were hung out to dry by the offense last week as Purdue turned the football over four times in that setback against the Orange. Keep in mind, the Boilers are just one game removed from holding Virginia Tech to 17 points on fewer than 300 total yards in Blacksburg. I do think we see a rather conservative offensive gameplan from Purdue here after last week's turnover-happy performance. The Boilers know they can ill afford to give a good Wisconsin offense any short fields to work with on Friday. For the most part, Purdue hasn't shown much big play potential on offense in the early going this season. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking down the field on Friday, noting that they did control the time of possession in last year's matchup with the Badgers, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes, albeit in a 35-24 defeat. Enough about Purdue, Wisconsin couldn't have been pleased with its defensive performance against Georgia Southern last week, allowing the Eagles to complete 33-of-52 passes for 383 yards. Were it not for all of the GSU turnovers, the end result might have been much different. In the Badgers toughest test so far this season they did hold an ascending Washington State offense to 'only' 31 points in enemy territory. In that contest, there was a stretch where the Badgers didn't allow an offensive touchdown for just shy of 39 minutes from early in the second quarter until the fourth quarter. All told, Wisconsin has given up seven offensive touchdowns in 12 quarters of action this season. Offensively, the Badgers would like to shift to a more pass-happy attack but so far they've topped out at 278 passing yards through three games. The Badgers ground attack is as good as any in the nation but I do think the Boilers can limit the big home run plays here. I'm very high on Purdue's defense in the second and third level in particular. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We saw a predictably high-scoring affair on Thursday Night Football last week as the Vikings and Eagles lit up the scoreboard in Philadelphia. I expect a much different story to play out this week as the Giants and 49ers do battle on a short week in Santa Clara. New York got off to a sluggish start in Arizona last Sunday but ultimately got it together in the second half in a massive come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals. The Giants will face a much more difficult test here, however, as the 49ers enter sporting a perfect 2-0 record off back-to-back road wins to open the campaign. I don't anticipate Giants QB Daniel Jones having much time to operate behind a banged-up offensive line. The 49ers boast one of the league's fiercest pass rushes and I'm certain we'll see Brian Daboll's employ a gameplan centered around Jones getting the football out quick, not to mention a healthy dose of the Giants ground game. The effectiveness of that New York backfield is in question with RB Saquon Barkley questionable to play after getting hurt on Sunday. For the 49ers, I look for them to go a little more conservative here as they play on a short week following consecutive road games. This is a game where they should be able to control proceedings from the jump and there should come a point where they can essentially take the air out of the football. While QB Brock Purdy has been efficient through the first two games (and throughout the early stages of his career) he does have a tendency to distribute the football close to the line of scrimmage rather than looking for big plays down field. I expect to see a number of long, clock-eating drives from the 49ers in particular in this one, which of course serves us well with the 'under'. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 131-90 with the Giants coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 51 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia State and Coastal Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This total has been climbing since opening, and for good reason. Coastal Carolina cruised to a 41-24 victory in this matchup last year but I'm anticipating a more competitive affair this time around and that should lend itself to a high-scoring contest. Georgia State actually brought in former Coastal Carolina defensive coordinator Chad Staggs to turn things around on that side of the football. The jury is still out as to whether that will be the case, however. The Panthers have performed well against a pair of bad offenses in Connecticut and Charlotte over the last two games but keep in mind, they gave up 35 points including four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch against FCS squad Rhode Island in their season-opener. This is a Georgia State defense that has lost a ton of key parts from last year's squad - keeping in mind, last year's defense wasn't very good to begin with. It's a similar story with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers lost two of their best defenders from a year ago in Jerrod Clark and Josaiah Stewart and again, that was a defense that wasn't very good. Offensively, both teams are loaded and led by experienced quarterbacks in Darren Grainger and Grayson McCall. Not household names by any means but two of the better leaders in the country. While many teams are already dealing with injuries to key players at the skill positions on offense, that's not the case with the Panthers and Chanticleers as they both enter with clean injury reports. In last year's meeting between these teams, Coastal Carolina held onto the football for more than 40 minutes. Yet that contest still produced 65 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys UNDER 38.5 | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams posted 'under' results in Week 1 and I expect more of the same as they match up on Sunday afternoon in Dallas. The Jets built their offense around Aaron Rodgers in the offseason so it's not stretch to say it's 'back to the drawing board' with Zach Wilson under center in the near-term. This is a nightmarish matchup against a Cowboys defense that appeared to be in midseason form against the other New York team last Sunday night. I certainly wouldn't anticipate an overly aggressive offensive gameplan from Gang Green here. With that being said, the Cowboys have to respect the Jets defense as well. New York made Josh Allen and the Bills look average at best in Monday's come-from-behind victory. While the Jets will give up their share of yardage on the ground, their secondary is among the best in the league and I don't think we'll see Mike McCarthy fire up a pass-first gameplan on Sunday afternoon. As a considerable home favorite, I believe it's in the Cowboys best interest to take what they can on the ground and effectively shorten proceedings here. Take the under (8*). |
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09-17-23 | Raiders v. Bills OVER 47 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Raiders defense was never really tested in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Denver as the Broncos employed an extremely conservative gameplan. I expect a completely different story to unfold here as the Bills look to bounce back following Monday's ugly overtime loss against the Jets. New York made Buffalo's offense look completely average in that contest but make no mistake, this is still an elite Bills 'O'. The fact that the Raiders held the Broncos to only 16 points on less than 300 total yards simply didn't tell the whole story. Denver actually got most of what it wanted on offense in that contest but rarely pushed the football down the field. There's a path for the Raiders offense to make some headway against the Bills here. Buffalo's defense looked downright awful against the run on Monday night, allowing Jets RB Breece Hall to get loose for big gains on a number of occasions. Las Vegas' offensive gameplan will likely center around RB Josh Jacobs here. While the Raiders will be without WR Jakobi Meyers after he hauled in two touchdown catches last Sunday, that only means more looks for DaVante Adams who remains a gamebreaker despite getting up there in age. The Bills secondary held up fine on Monday against Zach Wilson and while this does figure to be another favorable matchup against Jimmy Garoppolo, I do think Adams can win his share of matchups. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-23 | Hawaii v. Oregon OVER 68.5 | 10-55 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Oregon at 8 pm et on Saturday. This matchup has all the makings of a shootout, even if it does turn out to be a lopsided affair. Hawaii got its feet under it in a 31-20 win over FCS squad Albany last week - its first victory in three tries this season. There's a lot to like about the Hawaii offense. QB Brayden Schager is purely a pocket-passer - a little different than we're used to seeing from the Rainbow Warriors in recent years. Despite being sacked a ridiculous 14 times through three games, he's still managed to throw for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns which says a lot about the explosiveness of this aerial attack. With WR Steven McBride emerging as a touchdown machine and Pofele Ashlock a big play waiting to happen, Oregon can't afford to sleepwalk through this game. On the flip side, we know what the Ducks are capable of offensively. They're just one game removed from an 81-point outburst, even if it did come against an FCS opponent in Portland State. Last week, Oregon pulled out a hard-fought overtime win at Texas Tech. Nothing came easy for it in that contest but I expect the Ducks to get loose again offensively here. Note that Hawaii lost the heart-and-soul of its defense, captain Logan Taylor to a season-ending knee injury last week. He's a tackling machine and his absence will be felt right away against Oregon. There was a 32-minute stretch in Oregon's season-opener in which it scored nine, yes nine touchdowns. The Ducks didn't have to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters in that rout but still tacked on two more touchdown's the game's final 12 minutes. That tells you all you need to know about this year's Oregon team. I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (8*). |
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09-16-23 | Virginia Tech v. Rutgers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Rutgers at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I expect both of these teams to employ a 'hide the quarterback' style of offense on Saturday afternoon in Piscataway. Virginia Tech QB Grant Wells was fine in a favorable Week 1 matchup against a rebuilding Old Dominion defense but he suffered considerable regression last Saturday against Purdue and was ultimately lifted from the game due to an ankle injury (he's questionable to play this week). Backup Kyron Drones entered and completed only 2-of-7 passes. Regardless who is under center against Rutgers on Saturday, this is an extremely difficult draw and one where I fully expect the Hokies to lean toward the run in an effort to effectively shorten this game. The good news for the Hokies is that their defense is fine. Last week against Purdue, Virginia Tech allowed two touchdowns in the game's first 18 minutes but then held the Boilermakers out of the end zone until nearly midway through the fourth quarter. This is a manageable matchup against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is off to a perfect 2-0 start, scoring 60 points in the process. With that said, QB Gavin Wimsatt has completed just 27-of-50 passes, throwing for 163 and 198 yards in the first two contests. A lot of that has had to do with game script with the Scarlet Knights controlling proceedings. Here, I do think we see a more competitive affair and like the Hokies, the Scarlet Knights have a vested interest in running the football with Kyle Monangai (he's coming off a 165-yard outburst against Temple) and leaning heavily on their tremendous defense. While Rutgers did score 36 points last week, after reaching the end zone with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter it didn't record another touchdown until over three minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple came unglued late, allowing two more touchdowns in the game's final six minutes. I do expect Virginia Tech to show a lot more poise and composure than the Owls. With that said, Rutgers has played eight quarters of football so far this season, pitching shutouts in six of those. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA UNDER 45.5 | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair at the Alomodome on Friday. It's not often that both teams have a vested interest in eating clock and effectively shortening proceedings but I believe that will be the case here. For Army, it will be looking for revenge after a whild 41-38 loss against the Roadrunners in West Point last year. The Black Knights know the straightest path to victory in this game is by churning out long, clock-consuming drives that serve to keep the dangerous UTSA offense off the field. While they're certainly capable of doing that, they're up against a fierce Roadrunners defense that returns plenty of talent and experience and already appears to be in midseason form. I'm anticipating a rather conservative gameplan from Army in the role of considerable road underdog here. On the flip side, UTSA is hoping to have the services of do-it-all QB Frank Harris after he suffered a toe injury in last week's win over rival Texas State. Even if Harris can start this game, it's uncertain whether he'll be at 100% or how the injury will effect his performance. It does seem that something hasn't been quite right with Harris through the first two games this season and compounding matters is the fact that the Roadrunners offensive line has been struggling in pass protection. UTSA has the type of offense that can hold onto the football for long stretches with an effective ground game led by RB Kevorian Barnes. Note, however, that the big plays haven't necessarily been there so far this season. Last week against Texas State, UTSA's longest run was a 23-yard scamper from Barnes while its longest pass completion went for 30 yards - its only completion over 30 yards in the contest. Army does boast a capable defense that is built to prevent big plays thanks to a terrific second level with particular strength in the secondary. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a wild, high-scoring shootout but I expect nothing of the sort in this rematch. Take the under (8*). |
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09-14-23 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The projected shootout between these two teams last September ultimately fizzled as the Eagles built a big lead early and took the air out of the football in a scoreless second half. I do expect this rematch to be more competitive than that 24-7 beatdown in favor of Philadelphia. With the exception of WR Justin Jefferson and perhaps RB Alexander Mattison, the Vikings offense stunk in Sunday's stunning defeat at the hands of the Bucs. The good news here is that the Eagles lost LB Nakobe Dean to an injury on Sunday, further depleting an already downgraded defense following a number of offseason departures. I do think this is a game where Jefferson can go off while TE T.J. Hockenson is also in a blow-up spot. I like the revenge angle here for the Vikes, not only following last year's ugly showing in Philly but also off Sunday's embarrassing loss. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a ho-hum 25-point effort in New England last Sunday, scoring just a single offensive touchdown in the game. There's plenty for the Eagles offense to clean up here and I'm confident they will. In stark contrast to the Pats, who played it very safe on the defensive side of the football, the Vikes figure to continue to play aggressively on defense, trying to make up for a leaky back-end by putting heaps of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That worked alright against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs pop-gun offense. I'm not convinced it will work at all against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. This is a particularly strong bounce-back spot for Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert as Minnesota is likely to funnel its defense toward the dynamic WR duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Take the over (8*). |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Jets are hoping the addition of Aaron Rodgers can spark their offense in this particular matchup, noting that they've been held to 20 points or less in all eight matchups between these two teams going back to the start of the 2019 season. While Rodgers is undoubtedly an upgrade over the rag-tag bunch New York relied upon at quarterback last season, I'm not convinced we're going to see the Jets offense set the world on fire right out of the gate. Buffalo struggled to defend the pass at times last season, ultimately giving up some boxscore-stuffing performances from a number of opposing wide receivers. I'm not sure the Jets actually upgraded their receiving corps all that much by adding the likes of Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb. Elijah Moore (now with the Browns) and Corey Davis (retired) were useful for New York at the position last season. Note that the Bills secondary will start the season intact - the first time we can say that since 2021 with Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer all suffering various injuries over the last couple of years. Add in the Bills vaunted pass rush and it's a tough opening week draw for Rodgers and co. The Bills offense has a tendency to grab headlines but this is also a difficult Week 1 matchup for that unit. New York's defense used a run-funnel style to limit Bills QB Josh Allen's production ceiling in last year's two matchups and the result was Buffalo scoring just 20 and 17 points in splitting those two games. The Bills did little to upgrade their offense in the offseason. They did use first round draft capital to select TE Dalton Kincaid but it's likely going to take some time for him to acclimate himself in the offense based on what we saw in the preseason. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last 'over' result. That came in a contest where the Bills exploded for 45 points against a much different Jets defense in 2021. The instalment of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed at cornerback last year turned out to be a home run and now New York enters this season supremely confident on that side of the football. Take the under (8*). |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 45 | 40-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and New York at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Giants had one of the lowest offensive ceilings of any team in the NFL last year. They didn't score more than 24 points in a game until January (New Year's Day against Indianapolis) before topping that number again in an upset win over Minnesota in the Wild Card Round. The offense doesn't get worse by adding rookie WR Jalin Hyatt and TE Darren Waller but this is an undeniably tough Week 1 matchup against a tremendous Cowboys defense that may have gotten even better with the acquisition of CB Stephon Gilmore. With that in mind, I anticipate a conservative offensive gameplan from New York here and it does have the pieces in place to play a field position, clock control type of game. Expect a heavy dose of RB Saquon Barkley both running and catching the football. Meanwhile, Darren Waller figures to be an ideal safety valve for QB Daniel Jones who is more than capable of extending plays with his mobility. I simply question how many drives the G-Men can end with 7's on the board rather than 3's. The Cowboys bring a familiar offense to the table personnel-wise but did move on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. I don't necessarily see that as a negative but I do think we'll see Dallas play a more methodical style with Mike McCarthy calling the plays. While the Cowboys have the receivers to expose a rather green Giants secondary, I'm not sure how much time Dak Prescott will have to operate behind an enigmatic Cowboys offensive line that once again starts the season with a couple of guys banged up in Tyler and Tyron Smith. Similar to the Giants offense, the running back could end up being the focal point for the Cowboys offense whether on the ground or through the air with Tony Pollard on Sunday. It's all music to the ears of 'under' bettors with plenty of clock-churning drives likely. Take the under (8*). |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's matchup between these two AFC South rivals in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium produced a whopping 61 total points and that was with noodle-armed veteran QB Matt Ryan running the offense for Indianapolis. The Colts were without RB Jonathan Taylor on that day and will be again here. Of course, Ryan is no longer under center for Indy - now it's up to rookie Anthony Richardson. His upside is enormous but there will be growing pains. While this is by no means an ideal Week 1 matchup, I do think Richardson can make enough happen to keep the Colts more competitive than most think. While a clock-control offensive gameplan might make sense for Indy, that will be tough to employ if (and more likely when) they fall behind by a considerable margin. Ryan threw the football 58 times in that aformentioned matchup here last year. Richardson won't approach that pass attempt total here but I still expect him to be forced to throw plenty (which could also potentially lead to turnovers and short fields for the Jaguars offense). Jacksonville is loaded offensively as QB Trevor Lawrence settles in for his third NFL season and second under the guidance of head coach Doug Pederson. The attack only gets stronger with the additions of WR Calvin Ridley and rookie RB Tank Bigsby. After lighting up the Colts defense in last year's two matchups there's reason to believe Lawrence can and will go off again here, keeping in mind the Colts defense arguably got worse in the offseason, certainly at the back-end. I do question, however, whether the Jags even know how to 'take the air out of the football' so to speak. While Jacksonville is understandably a popular road favorite this week, I would hesitate to lay points until it shows me it can manhandle an opponent the caliber of the Colts as it should. Expect Indy to do just enough to keep this one competitive and ultimately help the total along. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-23 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 36.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While it's certainly not Army-Navy, we have seen a trend of low-scoring contests emerge in this rivalry series between Iowa and Iowa State. The 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings going back to 2018 with only one of those contests topping 35 total points. Last year, Iowa State pulled out a 10-7 victory in enemy territory and the road team has now won eight of the last 10 matchups. I expect a similarly low-scoring contest this year with both offenses in a state of transition early in the campaign. Iowa got the Cade McNamara era off to a red hot start last week, scoring two touchdowns in the game's first eight minutes against Utah State. From there, the Hawkeyes didn't reach the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. On the flip side, the Iowa defense was a rock as usual, holding Utah State out of the end zone until the game was all but decided (ahead 24-7 at the time) in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With QB Hunter Dekkers sidelined due to a gambling probe, it's up to the duo of J.J. Kohl and Rocco Becht to lead teh Cyclones offense. Last week against FCS opponent Northern Iowa it was Becht who got the start and led the team to a 30-point outburst. Led the team might be a bit of a stretch. Iowa State got the ball rolling with a pick-six less than two minutes into the contest and the offense went on to put together three touchdown drives, as it should against an FCS foe. Iowa State is hoping that Jayden Higgins can take over from Xavier Hutchinson as WR1 but he had just one catch for 15 yards against the Panthers. Lost in the 30-point performance was the fact that the Iowa State was terrific, holding UNI out of the end zone until nearly four minutes into the fourth quarter. The Cyclones essentially gave up just one big play in the entire game, that coming on a 36-yard pass completion on that lone Panthers touchdown drive. They racked up five sacks and two interceptions in the victory. Take the under (8*). |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. UPDATE: Since the time of posting Chiefs TE Travis Kelce suffered a hyper-extended knee at practice and is questionable to play on Thursday. I’ll stay on the same play as his absence should lead to an even more competitive affair with Detroit perhaps playing even more aggressively rather than a game of ‘keep-away’. The total will undoubtedly drop should Kelce be officially ruled out. While there isn't going to be a bargain to be had with this Opening Night total, I do feel the Lions and Chiefs are well-positioned to blast 'over' the lofty number. Give Andy Reid a couple of months to prepare for a Week 1 opponent and he's going to come up with an ultra-efficient gameplan. It's no fluke that Kansas City has put up just shy of 38 points per game in Week 1 over the last five seasons. It should be able to approach that number again here as it draws a mouth-watering matchup against a Lions defense that did little to improve in the offseason following an up-and-down 2022 campaign. You may recall Detroit opened last season with a 38-35 loss to the Eagles. It draws a similarly difficult season-opener here with the Chiefs returning virtually all of the key parts to its offense with a number of young players poised for breakouts, particularly at the wide receiver position. While not loaded with household names, the Chiefs receiving corps is among the deepest and well-balanced in the league. And that's without even getting in to the reliable presence of Travis Kelce - the ageless wonder at tight end. Detroit is no slouch offensively either. The Lions took a big step forward last season, producing just shy of 27 points per game. Don't sleep on offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's ability to match wits with Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo here. Detroit has even more upside this season after using first round draft capital on RB Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions will undoubtedly need to get creative on offense in order to keep pace on Thursday, I don't think there's any reason for them to be intimidated against a Chiefs defense that didn't hold up particularly well against the pass last year and faces the un-admirable challenge of breaking through against a terrific Lions offensive line. To make matters worse for the Kansas City defense, DT Chris Jones is questionable to play on Thursday due to his contract holdout. We'll bank on him playing but should he sit out, the Lions offense is deserving of an upgrade. Take the over (8*). |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State OVER 56 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between LSU and Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. We saw a relatively low-scoring matchup between these same two teams last Labor Day weekend as Florida State pulled out a 24-23 victory. Keep in mind, there was a 20-minute stretch in the third and fourth quarters where the two teams combined to score a whopping five touchdowns. The explosiveness is there with these two offenses. Of course, the defenses are loaded as well. I simply feel that the talent on defense can effectively work to fuel each team's offense in this particular matchup. We're likely to see plenty of 'chaos' plays that have the potential to flip the field (and lead to quick-score potential from the two offenses). Both teams boast ground attacks led by relative unknowns from a year ago but guys that essentially took over the reins down the stretch last season and should come out blasting here in Week 1. I'm referring to the duo of Josh Williams and Noah Cain for the Tigers and Trey Benson for the Seminoles. The receiving corps' both lose considerable talent but the cupboards are still well-stocked. Malik Nabers of LSU and Johnny Wilson of Florida State are two players that have the potential to go off in this matchup. That's not to mention the fact that both teams have tight ends that could potentially be playing on Sundays in the next couple of years. I expect both offenses to play fast in this one, not wanting to let the opposing defenses settle in and the experienced quarterbacks are certainly in place for that in Jayden Daniels and Jordan Travis. Take the over (8*). |
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09-02-23 | Washington State v. Colorado State OVER 55.5 | Top | 50-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I believe this rematch of last year's 38-7 Washington State rout has shootout potential. The Cougars are one of the more underrated teams in the country entering the 2023 campaign in my opinion. And it all starts with their offense, led by the talented trio of QB Cameron Ward, RB Nakia Watson and WR Lincoln Victor. The Rams didn't have any answers for the Cougars offense in last year's matchup as Washington State raced ahead 28-0 before halftime. A big part of that blowout result was the ineptness of the Colorado State offensive line. Almost in direct response to the brutal showing against Wazzu (the Rams gave up seven sacks in that game), Colorado State re-tooled its offensive line and now boasts an entirely different looking group. I don't expect a Jay Norvell-coached team to stay down for long offensively. The Rams do have some nice pieces in place on offense, including QB Clay Millen who took his lumps as a freshman last year but should be better for it in 2023. I like the way this matchup sets up for the Rams ground attack in particular as they've made improvements in that department as well and can take advantage of a smallish Cougars defensive interior. Noting that the Rams turned the football over twice, managed just 14 first downs and 37 rush yards on 31 attempts, it's incredible that they even managed to score a touchdown in last year's meeting. Expect them to at the very least come up with a response here, while the Cougars should be able to once again name their score against a very beatable Rams defense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-23 | Utah State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Iowa at 12 noon et on Saturday. We know what we're going to get with Iowa. In comes Michigan transfer Cade McNamara at quarterback but he's dealing with a leg injury and questionable to play on Saturday. Even if he does, I still expect to see a dialed-back Hawkeyes offense as they settle in to their preferred style of controlling the football (and the clock) in a matchup they should win going away against Utah State. The Aggies will turn to familiar face Cooper Legas under center. He had an up-and-down 2022 campaign, ultimately throwing just 11 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions. It seems that the more they let him cut it loose, the more mistakes he makes and in this difficult opening week matchup against what is expected to be an elite Iowa defense once again, I don't anticipate the Aggies putting too much on Legas' shoulders. Instead, we can anticipate Utah State running the football and doing all it can to win the battle of field position with a not-so-secret weapon at punter in super senior Stephen Kotsanlee. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Iowa's September home games over the last two seasons with those contests totalling an average of just 28.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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09-01-23 | Miami-OH v. Miami-FL UNDER 46 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Miami at 7 pm et on Friday. This should be an intriguing battle between two talented and experienced defenses in Week 1. The Redhawks had one of the lowest offensive ceilings of all Bowl-eligible teams last season - of course that had a lot to do with losing QB Brett Gabbert early in the campaign. While Gabbert is back healthy to start the 2023 season, he doesn't have the same receiver room to work with. That's not to mention the fact the Redhawks offensive line remains a patchwork unit. Gabbert's decision-making will be the biggest factor here as the opposing Hurricanes defense figure to take advantage of any missteps. The other Miami's offense remains a work-in-progress as well. Last year we saw the Hurricanes explode for 70 points in their season-opener against Bethune Cookman but that wasn't a sign of things to come as the offense sputtered for much of the campaign. They'll start this season with a question mark as well with QB Tyler Van Dyke nursing a thumb injury. While he's likely to play, I don't expect this offense to operate all that fast or efficiently against an underrated Redhawks defense that boasts All-MAC caliber talent at all three levels. Take the under (8*). |
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08-31-23 | NC State v. Connecticut UNDER 47 | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Connecticut at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This total has dropped considerably since opening and it's the right move in my opinion. N.C. State is ushering in a new era offensively with QB Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia. Armstrong had a tremendous 2021 campaign before fizzling with the Cavaliers last year. The thinking here is that reuniting Armstrong with offensive coordinator Robert Anae will work wonders. Perhaps that will be the case, but I believe this is a sneaky-tough opening week matchup against a Connecticut defense that made positive strides last season and brings back plenty of talent from that unit. Keep in mind, the Huskies were throttled 41-10 in this matchup last year (in Raleigh). Wolfpack QB Devin Leary went off in that game, completing 32-of-44 passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns. That includes a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage that put the Huskies being the eight-ball early and ultimately took them away from their gameplan entirely. I don't believe UConn's plan of attack will change all that much this year, even with QB Joe Fagnano entering the fold after a productive career with Maine. Unfortunately for Fagnano, he doesn't have a loaded receiver room to work with. In the opener, he'll be facing a Wolfpack defense that recorded a whopping 19 interceptions last season and returns the outstanding 1-2 punch of Shyheim Battle and Aidan White in the secondary. With that said, the Huskies will want to lean heavily on their outstanding running back duo of Victor Rosa and Devontae Houston. While I do think UConn can make enough headway with its ground attack to keep the chains (and the clock) moving at times in this game, I'm not convinced we're going to see them break many big runs against a Wolfpack defense that despite losing a number of key parts, is still in excellent shape at linebacker and in the secondary. Note that in last year's meeting, the Huskies didn't score until the final play of the first half (field goal) and didn't reach the end zone until there were less than three minutes remaining in the game (and the final result was already decided with N.C. State leading 41-3). Take the under (8*). |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt UNDER 56.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This matchup was no contest last year as Vanderbilt exploded in the third quarter on its way to a 63-10 rout in Hawaii. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair this year. Given the Rainbow Warriors are guided by head coach and former standout quarterback Timmy Chang, the expectation would be that the Hawaii offense will be high-octane. I simply feel there are too many question marks on that side of the football, including at quarterback and wide receiver to heap on high expectations out of the gate. This is a sneaky-tough matchup against an SEC defense on the rise and I think the Rainbow Warriors main goal will be to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately keep their defense off the field as much as possible. Speaking of that defense, it was awful last season. I expect this to be a bounce-back year in that department, however, as Hawaii bolstered its secondary by bringing over cornerback Cam Stone from Wyoming and safety Peter Manuma is a budding star after making a splash in his freshman year. The needle is certainly pointing up for Vanderbilt after making positive strides and coming up with a couple of particularly big wins in SEC play last season. While there's talk the experienced but ineffective Ken Seals could still see some action, this is undoubtedly quarterback A.J. Swann's offense. With last year's top running back Ray Davis bolting to Kentucky, the Commodores ground game could be a work-in-progress in the early going. I do think they lean more on Swann's arm (he's not much of a runner) in this particular matchup and then worry about pounding away after building a substantial lead. Again, that's where the Rainbow Warriors improved secondary needs to come in. Defense is where Vandy needs to have the biggest improvement and I believe it will. Vandy brought in Aeneas DiCosmo from Stanford and Prince Kollie from Notre Dame to bolster the pass rush that simply didn't create enough splash plays last season. Losing last year's top tackle Anfernee Orji certainly isn't ideal but I do think there are enough good pieces in place to make this Commodores defense anything but a swinging gate this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Kansas City and Philadelphia at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the first half 'under' in last year's Super Bowl and while the match up is of course much different this time around, featuring the high-profile offenses of the Chiefs and Eagles, I actually believe that serves to provide us value with the 'under' once again. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-10 in the first half in the Chiefs last 34 games following a bye week, with that situation producing an average total of just 20.6 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-10 in the first half in the Eagles last 35 games after a bye week, leading to an average total of only 20.2 points in that spot. Simply by nature of today's NFL, I don't think either of these defenses are getting enough attention or respect. Most of the talk in the two weeks leading up to this game surrounds Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, perhaps rightfully so. However, the two defenses have proven their worth time and time again this season and certainly in the playoffs. In fact, the Chiefs enter this game having given up a grand total of just 19 first half points in their last three games. The Eagles have been even better in that respect, allowing only seven first half points in their last three contests. Take the first half under (8*). |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. Both of last weekend's AFC Divisional Round matchups ended up fizzling from a point-scoring perspective, leading to a pair of 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold this Sunday as the Bengals and Chiefs do battle in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. While the Bengals ran the football at will in last Sunday's landslide win over the Bills in snowy Buffalo, I expect nothing of the sort against a stout Chiefs run defense here. Cincinnati's path to victory here undoubtedly involves throwing the football at will and doing so in all areas of the field. The Bengals pass protection issues were non-existent last Sunday but will likely play more of a factor here. While one might think that would lead to a lower ceiling for this Bengals offense, I'm not convinced that will be the case. Joe Burrow has routinely carved up the Chiefs defense in three previous matchups between these two teams and I'm confident in Cincinnati's ability to scheme up an offensive gameplan that puts the ball into the hands of its playmakers like Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. On the flip side, the Chiefs offense also has an apparent low ceiling with QB Patrick Mahomes dealing with a high ankle sprain that looked awfully severe in last Saturday's gutsy win over the Jaguars. With that being said, Mahomes is operating behind a Chiefs offensive line that is only overshadowed by the Eagles in that department as far as teams remaining in the playoffs go. Similarly to the Bengals, I believe the Chiefs best chance at advancing to the Super Bowl comes by putting the ball in the air, again in all areas of the field with guys like do-everything RB Jerick McKinnon and all-universe TE Travis Kelce pacing the offense. The three previous meetings between the Bengals and Chiefs going back to last season have produced 65, 51 and 51 total points. We're working with a reasonably low total here, largely due to the injury to Mahomes and the cluster of injuries on the Bengals offensive line. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46 | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and San Francisco at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. 'Over' bettors were thwarted by four Brett Maher missed extra points in Tampa on Monday, myself included, but I don't expect this total to fall anywhere close to being in that 'danger zone' on Sunday. Both of these offenses are loaded, that much we know. While this is a more difficult matchup for the Cowboys offense than they faced against the under-achieving Buccaneers defense on Monday, there is a path to success for Dallas should it choose to attack the 49ers through the air. In a game where the potential is certainly there for the Cowboys to be playing from behind much of the afternoon, I'm expecting a very high pass-rate from Dak Prescott and the offense in this one, to varying success. It's going to be a 'pick-your-poison' type of situation for the Cowboys aggressive defense against a multi-pronged 49ers offense that is absolutely peaking at the right time. Maybe the hype has gotten a little too big around San Francisco's 'Mr. Irrelevant' QB Brock Purdy but I still believe he's the real deal and will orchestrate another strong playoff performance here. He simply has too many weapons at his disposal not to find considerable success. Interestingly, when these two teams met in last year's playoffs, we saw a closing total of 51 points. That's despite what I would consider to be two weaker, and certainly less aggressive and more risk-averse offenses that we'll see take the field this time around. That game ultimately reached only 40 points in what was a disjointed affair (remember the 49ers were comfortable putting the game in the hands of their ground attack and defense with Jimmy Garropolo under center). I expect nothing of the sort here as this has the potential to be one of, if not the most entertaining game of Divisional Weekend. Take the over (8*). |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 48 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday night in Philadelphia. The first meeting between these two teams was a blowout victory in favor of the Eagles, 48-22 in New York back in early December. The rematch wasn't all that notable as the Giants rested their starters in a much lower-scoring defeat. Here, I think we're in line for something in between with the total quite simply proving too high. On a positive note for the Giants, they'll have standout CB Adoree' Jackson on the field for this the third meeting between these two teams this season. Jackson obviously played a big role in last week's 'upset' win in Minnesota, helping stamp out Justin Jefferson's big-play potential. He'll look to do the same against Eagles WR A.J. Brown on Saturday, likely to mixed results. There's no denying the Giants are playing well up front with Kayvon Thibodeaux getting better as the season has gone on. On the flip side, the Eagles boast perhaps the league's best defensive front and should give the Giants offensive line fits all night long. Giants QB Daniel Jones was able to get loose on numerous occasions against the Vikings last week and found plenty of success through the air, just as he did in the teams' regular season matchup. This is a much different challenge, however, and I don't anticipate Jones being afforded a lot of time in the pocket, nor do I expect New York's lukewarm wide receiving corps to enjoy much open field. There is a path for the Giants offense to stay on the field and effectively shorten this game by picking their spots to run with Jones and also work the slot in Avonte Maddox's absence for the Eagles. I'm just not convinced we'll see the Giants end many drives with 7's on the board. We've certainly seen the Eagles jump ahead and then take the air out of the football at times this season. They have that type of offense that can control the football for long periods and I'm confident we'll see that as this game wears on. Running the football figures to be a key part of the Eagles offensive gameplan on Saturday after RB Miles Sanders picked up 155 yards and a pair of scores against the Giants earlier this season. New York can take some solace in the fact that it did effectively stamp out the Vikings ground attack last Sunday, albeit in a much different game script than they're likely to see on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season was the only meaningful one - as I mentioned the Giants rested their starters in the Week 18 rematch. That game saw a closing total of just 44.5 points. Of course, it also featured 70 actual points. I don't think we're in for another high-scoring affair here, however, as the Giants have done enough to instill confidence defensively and the return of Jackson has given them a boost against the pass. Note that since that 48-22 loss to the Eagles on December 11th, the Giants have given up 12, 27, 10, 22 and 24 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 40.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. With Tyler Huntley expected back under center, I think the Ravens will be able to better do what they were hoping to do last Sunday and that's churn out long, clock-churning drives while taking care of the football on offense, leaving the rest of the game up to their terrific defense. Baltimore's gameplan effectively got derailed thanks to four turnovers on offense in last week's matchup here in Cincinnati. Throwing the football 40+ times in a game with Anthony Brown at quarterback certainly wasn't 'plan A'. The Bengals offense has been rolling along but there is some reason for pause here. Long a sore spot on an otherwise outstanding offense, the Cincinnati offensive line will be without both La'el Collins and Alex Cappa on the right side. And it's going to be tough for the Bengals to rely on the backfield tandem of Joe Mixon and Semaje Perine to relieve the pressure against a Ravens defense that has been incredibly stout against the run. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Ravens coming off a game in which they lost the turnover battle by at least two over the last three seasons, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of only 31.7 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-6 with the Bengals coming off consecutive games in which they scored 17 or more first half points going all the way back to 1992, which is also the situation here. Cincinnati hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since November 6th and 20th (sandwiched around a bye week). Baltimore last posted two straight 'over' results way back in Weeks 2 and 3. I mention that as last Sunday's matchup did find its way 'over' the number. Take the under (8*). |
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01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Minnesota at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. When these two teams met back on Christmas Eve they combined to score 51 points in a narrow 27-24 Giants victory. While we've seen a minor adjustment to the total in advance of this rematch, I don't believe it will prove to be enough to keep this one 'under' the total. This game once again pits two of the better and more aggressive offensive minds in the NFL today in head coaches Brian Daboll of the Giants and Kevin O'Connell of the Vikings. Over the course of the season, we saw the Giants offense evolve from a run-oriented, risk-averse unit to a far more aggressive, pass-heavy attack. Never was that more true than in the aforementioned game against the Vikings. In that contest, the G-Men threw the football 40+ times. That's not to say their ground game wasn't effective as well. They racked up 126 rush yards on only 21 attempts. While the Vikings bolstered their offense with the addition of TE T.J. Hockenson prior to the trade deadline, they elected to stand pat defensively and that could ultimately prove to be their downfall in the postseason. Strong safety Harrison Smith, arguably their best defender, continues to play hurt. They've had no answers for opposing passing games, nor have they been able to stop opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air. I do have a lot of respect for the Giants defense but there's no denying this is a difficult matchup against a multi-faceted Vikings offense. As I mentioned, this has been an even more explosive Vikings offense since acquiring Hockenson from the Detroit. WR Justin Jefferson is as advertised, as is RB Dalvin Cook, who should once again feast on a Giants defense that has struggled to stop the run all season. New York does get back CB Adoree Jackson. It remains to be seen how effective he can be in his first game action since Week 11. Even facing blanket coverage in Week 16 against New York, Jefferson still went off to pace the Vikes offense. Expect a shootout here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia UNDER 64 | Top | 7-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Monday. Both CFP semi-final matchups ended up being high-scoring affairs and that's helping this total hold strong approaching the mid-60's. I believe it will prove too high. Lost in TCU's 51-point explosion against Michigan was the fact that it completed just 14-of-29 passes for 225 yards - the second straight games in which the Horned Frogs completed 18 or fewer passes. Their ground game has of course been dominant, led by RB Kendre Miller. It is worth noting that Miller suffered a minor MCL injury in that semi-final against Michigan and now goes against a Georgia defense that has held opponents to just 3.0 yards per rush this season. The Bulldogs check in having allowed more than 94 rushing yards just once in their last six games - that coming in the scare against Ohio State in the CFP semi-final (we won with the Buckeyes in that game). Note that TCU earned itself three extra offensive possessions against Michigan, turning the Wolverines over three times in that contest. They're unlikely to enjoy the same good fortune here, noting that Georgia has turned it over just once in each of its last four games. While the Bulldogs offense has enjoyed tremendous success over their last two games going back to the SEC Championship Game, here we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times Georgia has played away from home off three straight 'over' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 45.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-23 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks offense has actually been struggling lately, despite last week's 23-6 win over the Jets here at home. The Rams down-trodden and injury-ravaged defense should be the cure for what ails them here, however. Teams have been running all over Los Angeles' defense since DT Aaron Donald and space-eater A'Shawn Robinson went down to injury. The Rams have given up 165, 138, 104 and 192 rush yards over their last four contests. That's not to say they've been any stronger against the pass either. Last week, the Chargers lit them up for 24-of-31 passing, good for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and two touchdowns. With all of his weapons at his disposal, Seahawks QB Geno Smith has the potential to go off in this one. The question becomes whether the Rams lukewarm offense can keep up in a potential shootout. They did find some success early in last week's game against the Chargers but once the margin got too large, they essentially took the air out of the football. I do expect a more competitive affair here, noting that the Rams will be looking to avenge an early-December home loss against the division-rival Seahawks. Keep in mind, Seattle hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since 2016-17. Take the over (10*). |
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01-08-23 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 40.5 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll keep my analysis for this play short with kickoff quickly approaching. All indications are that Bucs QB Tom Brady and the rest of the starters will play in this game. How much remains to be seen. With that being said, I'll fade the Falcons five-game 'under' streak here, noting that the first matchup between these two teams got to 36 points despite little in the way of offensive fireworks - particularly from the Falcons. QB Desmond Ridder has shown me enough to believe he can put some numbers on the board against a banged-up Bucs defense here. Meanwhile, Brady has absolutely carved this Falcons pass defense since joining the Bucs. We're talking 350+ passing yards in four of five meetings going back to 2020. Take the over (8*). |
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01-01-23 | Rams v. Chargers OVER 41.5 | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Rams and Chargers at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has now cashed in four consecutive games involving the Chargers. As a result, we continue to see downward adjustments to their game totals with each passing week. This marks the lowest total we've seen in any game involving the Chargers this season and I believe it will prove too low. The Rams low-water mark in terms of point totals since Baker Mayfield took over at quarterback has been 12 points. That came in adverse conditions on the road at frosty Lambeau Field against the red hot Packers two weeks ago. I did feel that something 'clicked' for the Rams injury-ravaged offense against the Broncos last Sunday and think they can at least offer some shootout potential against a beatable Chargers defense here. There's been little to glean from the Chargers last two stout defensive performances as they came against the Titans (with a less-than-healthy Ryan Tannehill at quarterback) and Colts (with the ghost of Nick Foles at quarterback). This is still a defense that can be run on, and the Rams have shown some confidence in giving the ball to Cam Akers in recent weeks. On the flip side, the Rams defense is a shell of its former self, holding only two of its last seven opponents under 24 points (the Raiders and Broncos). The Chargers continue to sling the football all over the field and I think this is the game where they start finishing more of their drives with 7's rather than 3's. Take the over (8*). |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. New York is coming off a relatively high-scoring affair in an indoor setting in Minnesota last Sunday. The Giants have seen consecutive games go 'over' the total only once previously this season though, that coming in a two-game stretch that saw them face the Lions and Cowboys - two distinctly different opponents than they'll face today in the down-trodden Colts. Indianapolis had a tough enough time just getting plays off let alone scoring with Nick Foles at the helm on Monday night against the Chargers. The Colts ran the ball only 14 times and threw it just 29 times in that 20-3 defeat. Needless to say, they'll be interested in shortening this game as much as they can to stay competitive on Sunday. The Giants would be wise to employ a similar gameplan given they've managed to win just once in their last six contests (they've played much better than that record would indicate going 4-2 ATS over that stretch). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Giants having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 32.0 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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12-30-22 | South Carolina v. Notre Dame UNDER 50.5 | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Notre Dame at 3:30 pm et on Friday. This total has dropped considerably since the opener and rightfully so with both teams announcing a number of key offensive contributors will be opting-out, or transferring. The Gamecocks wrapped up the regular season with consecutive wild, high-scoring affairs - both going 'over' the total. Meanwhile, the Irish saw each of their last six contests go 'over' the total. With both teams missing the focal point of their offenses at the tight end position, I don't doubt we'll see a more run-centric attack from both squads, effectively shortening this game and keeping proceedings 'under' the still-lofty total. Take the under (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Washington v. Texas OVER 67 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Texas at 9 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect either offense to have any trouble moving the football up and down the field, not to mention ending drives with 7's in this 'defense-optional' Bowl matchup. Texas will be without RBs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson but that should only lead to more passing and there's little reason to expect QB Quinn Ewers to be faced with any sort of resistance against the Huskies sieve-like pass defense. What will be an issue for Texas will be the gaping hole on defense left by the absence of LB DeMarvion Overshown. This isn't a particularly deep defense and Washington certainly has the pieces on offense to take advantage of any weaknesses. Note that the Huskies didn't suffer any sort of drop-off in production at all away from home this season, averaging 4.8 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt. It's all systems go for the Huskies here with QB Michael Penix and the rest of his weapons healthy and ready to go. Of note, this will be Penix's first-ever Bowl game and I expect him to show up and show out. Take the over (10*). |
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12-29-22 | Minnesota v. Syracuse UNDER 42.5 | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Syracuse at 2 pm et on Thursday. With so many coaching changes and player opt-outs and two lukewarm offenses but capable defenses taking the field, I'm expecting nothing other than a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday in the Bronx. Arguably Syracuse's top two offensive players will miss this game in RB Sean Tucker and OT Matthew Bergeron. That leads me to believe we'll see a scaled-back version of the Syracuse offense against a Minnesota defense that yielded just 3.8 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per pass attempt this season. It remains to be seen whether the Golden Gophers have the services of QB Tanner Morgan. Even if he can play, there's no guarantee he can finish the game. While Minnesota doesn't have quite the big losses on offense to deal with, the fact that it lost WR Chris Autman-Bell to a season-ending injury back in October was the biggest blow of the campaign. Like Syracuse, Minnesota has performed reasonably well defensively allowing 3.8 ypr and 6.1 yppa this season. Take the under (8*). |
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12-28-22 | Ole Miss v. Texas Tech OVER 71.5 | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Wednesday. |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Saturday. It seems that the Eagles intentions are clear heading into this one as they're expected to give QB Gardner Minshew the start after Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder in last Sunday's win in Chicago. While it doesn't sound like Hurts' injury is all that serious, he's likely to sit as Philadelphia owns a comfortable three-game cushion atop the NFC East. While there are some that believe backup Minshew can keep the train rolling offensively, I'm not in that group. I don't expect the Eagles to put a whole lot on Minshew's plate here. The Eagles still have enough offensive playmakers to churn out some long, clock-eating drives but I question how many of those drives they can end with seven points on the board. The Cowboys probably aren't all that interested in getting involved in another shootout here - not after last week's disappointing overtime loss in Jacksonville. They've now seen the 'over' cash in four straight and six of their last seven games overall but I look for that streak to end here. Note that the first meeting between these two teams totalled 43 points. That was with Cooper Rush at quarterback for the Cowboys of course. I do think we see Dallas scale back its offense a bit here after turning the football over five times in the last two games. While Philadelphia is without Hurts on offense, its defense remains healthy and poised to shoulder the load here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-24-22 | Commanders v. 49ers OVER 37.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a fun one in Santa Clara on Saturday afternoon as the Commanders head west on a short week off last Sunday night's tough divisional home loss against the Giants. Washington's defense goes as far as its pass rush takes it but I question how much pressure they can generate against a stout 49ers offensive line that has done a nice job of keeping rookie QB Brock Purdy upright in the last two games (just one sack allowed). Washington is expected to have DE Chase Young back but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be in his first game back (or how many snaps he'll be on the field for). The 49ers offense is incredibly difficult to prepare for, regardless who is at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Commanders struggled to put points on the board last Sunday against the Giants, but once again flashed that big play potential with a terrific set of weapons around inconsistent QB Taylor Heinicke. Head coach Ron Rivera has hinted at making a change back to Carson Wentz at quarterback but for now Heinicke is the guy and I do think we'll see the Commanders offense rally around him with a strong bounce-back performance here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-24-22 | Falcons v. Ravens OVER 34.5 | 9-17 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Saturday. While somewhat muted, I do think we see a bit of a 'sling-shot' effect from the two offenses here. Atlanta has been held to 13, 16 and 18 points over its last three games - the first time this season it has been held under 23 points in three consecutive games. Yes, the presence of rookie QB Desmond Ridder does put a fairly low ceiling on this offense but is he really all that much worse of an option than Marcus Mariota? The Ravens will give Tyler Huntley another start as Lamar Jackson still isn't ready to return. Like the Falcons offense, the Ravens 'O' is in bounce-back mode after being held to 10, 16 and 3 points in its last three contests. Prior to that, Baltimore hadn't been held under 20 points in consecutive games all season. By this point, Huntley should be more than comfortable running the offense (keeping in mind he's seen significant playing time prior to this season as well) and draws a favorable matchup against a porous Falcons defense here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-22-22 | Air Force v. Baylor UNDER 43 | 30-15 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Air Force and Baylor at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I can understand the temptation to go with the 'over' in this relatively low-totalled contest on Thursday. I'm not convinced it's the right decision, however, as Air Force battles Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl. While the Falcons option-based offense gets all of the press, they proved they can play some defense this season as well. Only one of Air Force's 12 opponents has completed at least 20 passes and that was FCS squad Northern Iowa way back in Week 1 - in a game where the Falcons still gave up only 17 points. They also held the opposition to just 3.6 yards per rush. I can't help but feel Baylor's best days are behind it from an offensive standpoint. After scoring 38 or more points in five of its first nine games, Baylor put up 3, 28 and 27 points over its final three contests. The real problem for the Bears this season was their defensive play. They fired their defensive and special teams coordinators at the end of the regular season and this game will mark the first step toward turning the page in that department. I think Air Force's relatively one-dimensional offense does help Baylor's cause here, noting that the Bears have allowed just 138 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush this season. The Bears regular season finale against Texas was a good example of their offensive inconsistency. After scoring their second touchdown of the game with less than a minute remaining in the first half, they never reached the end zone again on offense, only scoring a touchdown on a defensive fumble return early in the fourth quarter. It was a similar story the game previous against TCU as the Bears scored two touchdowns in the game's first 18 minutes but then didn't find the end zone again until the first minute of the fourth quarter. Take the under (8*). |
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12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty OVER 52.5 | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Liberty at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as Toledo and Liberty, two teams that have enjoyed completely opposite Bowl results in recent years, do battle in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday. I'm counting a 'sling-shot effect' from the two offenses in this contest. Toledo got bogged down offensively down the stretch - part of that had to do with dual-threat QB Dequan Finn being banged-up. It does draw Liberty missing its top linebacker in Ahmad Walker after he transferred to SMU. The Flames got completely distracted down the stretch, seemingly so at least, and you can't really blame them as they dealt with rumors swirling around head coach Hugh Freeze's impending departure to Auburn - rumors that came to fruition at the end of the regular season. Now they've had time to regroup and I expect a much better showing here, led by an offense that finally has its quarterback room healthy again. Liberty has a legitimate three-headed monster at quarterback and should be able to give the Rockets middling defense fits in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Connecticut v. Marshall OVER 40.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Marshall at 2:30 pm et on Monday. This game is being pegged as a defensive slugfest or at least a sloppy affair according to the total, which sits in the low-40's at the time of writing. I believe we could be in for a far more entertaining, high-scoring contest than most are expecting, however. Both offenses trended in the right direction down the stretch. UConn scored 27, 36 and 17 points in its final three games with the outlier being a game in which run-heavy Army took the air out of the football (that contest still reached 51 points). Marshall scored 28, 23 and 28 points in its final three contests. UConn is expected to get a major offensive boost for this game with previously injured wide receivers Keelan Marion and Cam Ross expected to be back on the field. Marshall welcomed RB Rasheen Ali back for the final two regular season games and he went off, running for 181 yards in those two contests. It's hard to imagine the Huskies having any answers for the Thundering Herd's dynamic backfield duo of Ali and Khalan Laborn, noting that UConn has been cooked for 168 rush yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush this season. Those numbers jump to 218 rush ypg on 5.2 ypr away from Storrs. Take the over (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Giants v. Commanders OVER 40.5 | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. With New York having scored 24, 18, 20, 20 and 22 points over its last five games and Washington having put up 32, 23, 19 and 20 points in its last four contests, both of these teams have exhibited reliable scoring floors, if not sky-high ceilings in recent weeks. Neither team will have the element of surprise in its favor here after the two teams played to a 20-20 tie in the Meadowlands two weeks ago (we won with the Giants plus the points in that game). It is worth noting that both offenses did whatever they wanted in that game for the most part, save for scoring touchdowns at the end of drives. Here, Washington should be able to clean things up off its bye week while New York is in a prime bounce-back spot after facing the league-best Eagles last Sunday. Both sides are missing key pieces defensively with CB Adoree' Jackson still sidelined for the Giants and DE Chase Young ruled out for the Commanders. Take the over (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Titans v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm always looking for spots to play the 'over' in games involving the Chargers and off consecutive 'under' results, I believe it's go-time again on Sunday afternoon. The Titans have seen their last two games go 'over' the total. After being held to 19 points or less in four straight games they've now scored 22 or more points in two of their last four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 9-1 when Tennessee plays on the road off a loss over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 54.7 points in that spot. Off three straight losses, I do expect to see the Titans go back to their bread-and-butter on Sunday and that means a heavy dose of RB Derrick Henry. While more running doesn't generally support an 'over' play, I think it's a different story here with the Chargers vulnerable against the run, yielding north of 5.0 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Titans are banged-up in their secondary and likely to get cooked by QB Justin Herbert and his full compliment of weapons here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While this game is being pegged as a potential shootout, I believe there's a good chance we see both offenses frustrated on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. The Eagles are in a prime letdown spot offensively after scoring a season-high 48 points in last Sunday's rout of the Giants (we won with Philadelphia in that game). The Bears come out fresh off their bye week but with an offense that has regressed, scoring 24, 10 and 19 points over the last three games since putting up 30 or more points in consecutive games earlier in November. The 'over' has actually cashed in each of the Bears last seven contests but this game matches the highest total we've seen over that stretch. For the Eagles, this is the highest total we've seen since October 9th in Arizona - a game that ended up reaching just 37 total points. Both defenses should be familiar with what they'll face on Sunday as quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields are two of the most mobile pivots in the league and the defenses see them operate every day at practice. I believe there's a good chance this develops into a bit of a chess match on Sunday afternoon in the Windy City. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two AFC East foes this season but probably deserved a better fate after that game got off to a quick start but stalled out thanks to a number of failed red zone trips from the Bills. Miami played keep-away in the south Florida heat on that day in late September, needing to do so to keep its banged-up defense off the field as much as possible. I expect a much different story to unfold in Buffalo on Saturday. Miami has been held down offensively in consecutive losses to the 49ers and Chargers but I expect it to 'get right' here. The Bills are going to be without key run-stopper Jordan Phillips while Matt Milano is banged-up as well. That should open the door for the Fins to restore some offensive balance and ultimately feed Buffalo's front-line a heavy dose of RB Raheem Mostert. The success of Miami's ground game figures to open things up for Tua Tagovailoa and its suddenly dormant passing attack. I'm never all that worried about where the points will come from when it comes to the Bills. They were held in check for the most part against a tough Jets defense last Sunday but should bounce back in sling-shot fashion here. Miami's defense has been good for stretches but has been on the field for an awful lot of football over the last two weeks (thanks to the ineptitude of the offense) and now faces the unenviable task of containing the Bills on a short week, not to mention on the road for the third straight game. This is a blow-up spot for Bills WR Stefon Diggs as Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard hasn't looked right all season due to various injuries. We're seeing a sharp drop from the total in the first meeting this season (that total was set in the low-50's). I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State UNDER 53 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Oregon State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. Most are anticipating a shootout between these two teams on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday. I'm not so easily convinced. The Florida Gators will start third-string QB Jack Miller III after Anthony Richardson opted out and backup Jalen Kitna was arrested on child pornography charges. That's not the only issue as the Gators will be without key offensive linemen O'Cyrus Torrence and Josh Braun. Torrence's absence in particular stings as he rates out as one of the best o-linemen in the country. We can expect the Gators to put this one in the hands of their ground game for the most part. Oregon State exploded in the second half for a stunning come-from-behind win over rival Oregon in its regular season finale. Keep in mind, the Beavers scored a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining in the first quarter in that game but didn't reach the end zone again until less than three minutes remaining in the third quarter and much of their offensive success came after the Ducks inexplicably let down their guard nursing a seemingly insurmountable lead. We know the script when it comes to the Beavers without standout QB Chance Nolan. They'll put the game on the shoulders of their ground attack and defense with QB Ben Gulbranson having attempted no more than 28 passes while throwing for 250 yards or less in every game he appeared in (nine) this season. With both teams coming off wild, high-scoring affairs in their respective regular season finales, I can't help but feel this total is inflated. Take the under (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB OVER 45 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami-Ohio and UAB at 11:30 am et on Friday. I can't help but feel this total is way off. Neither of these teams have shown any ability to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, at least lately in the case of Miami-Ohio and all season long when it comes to UAB. The Blazers boast one of the most underrated or overlooked 1-2 tandems in the backfield in the nation in RBs Dewayne McBride and Jermaine Brown and figure to feast on a Miami-Ohio defense that never really got it together over the course of the season. On the flip side, the Blazers were eviscerated for 172 rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush over the course of the season. While the Redhawks backfield hasn't been all that explosive, I do think their ability to run the football should open things up for the passing game here. It's worth noting that three of Miami-Ohio's five highest-scoring performances of the season came in its last four contests. UAB's defense - much like Miami-Ohio's - entered the season with optimism but was never able to truly flourish, allowing 20 or more points in 10 of 11 games against FBS opposition. The only occasion where it did hold an FBS opponent to fewer than 20 points that contest still reached 55 total points in a rout of Middle Tennessee State. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think we see a 'slingshot effect' from the Browns offense here in QB Deshaun Watson's second game back under center following a nearly two-year absence from game action. Watson didn't look good against an awful Texans defense last week, but Cleveland still found a way to manufacture 27 points and I do think that bodes well going forward. This is a game where the Browns likely find themselves playing from behind in which case we should see them open the playbook far more than they did last week against Houston. The Bengals offense figures to smash in this spot as they catch an already struggling Browns defense without key run-stopping LB Sione Takitaki. All indications are that RB Joe Mixon will be back on the field and of course Ja'Marr Chase is back healthy as well, ready to go off on a vulnerable Browns secondary. While division games often lead to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup, at least not in Cincinnati, where the last four meetings have produced 57, 71, 56 and 55 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. With Minnesota coming off consecutive 'over' results and Detroit fresh off a high-scoring result of its own last week at home against the Jaguars, I feel this total will prove too high as these two NFC North opponents square off on Sunday afternoon in the Motor City. The Vikings offense really has nowhere to go but down after scoring 60 points combined in consecutive home wins over the Patriots and Jets over the last two weeks. While Detroit's defense was down-trodden earlier in the campaign, this is a unit that has improved as the season has gone on, allowing just 60 points over its last three games combined. Meanwhile, Minnesota has yielded more than 26 points only twice this season with those two poor performances coming in consecutive weeks against the Bills and Cowboys back in November. The Vikes 'D' should be brimming with confidence after saving last week's victory over the Jets with a goal-line stand in the waning seconds. We'll certainly look to fade the Lions offense here after it put up 40 or more points for the second time this season in last week's win over the Jags. The last time Detroit scored 40+ points it followed it up by getting shut out in New England the very next week. While another shutout certainly isn't likely here, I do think both defenses come up with enough stops to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll stick with what works here and call for another low-scoring start between the Saints and Buccaneers on Monday night in Tampa. The first time these two teams met this season they combined to score three, yes three, first half points (New Orleans led 3-0 at the break). In fact, the first half 'under' has gone an incredible 10-1 in all Bucs games this season with the only outlier being a wild, high-scoring affair against the Chiefs in Week 4. New Orleans has scored a grand total of 23 first half points in its last four games combined. You would have to go back six games to find the last time it allowed more than 14 points in the first half and that's only happened three times in 12 games so far this season. As for Tampa Bay, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time it put up more than 14 first half points. In fact, it has been held to 10 or fewer first half points in four of its last five contests. Alvin Kamara is one of the Saints lone weapons on offense and he faces a tough matchup here given the fact that the Bucs have all but stamped out opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air this season. Only one team has allowed fewer catches to opposing running backs, which is obviously Kamara's bread-and-butter. While the Bucs offense showed signs of life last week in Cleveland, this is still very much an under-achieving group facing a revenge-minded Saints squad on Monday. Tom Brady has posted unremarkable results in three of five career matchups against Dennis Allen-coached defenses and just lost one of his best offensive linemen in Tristan Wirfs to an ankle injury. We'll play the first half 'under' only in this spot given the Saints could turn to QB Jameis Winston for a spark against his old team should Andy Dalton struggle early on. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-04-22 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 41 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Seahawks overtime loss to the Raiders last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they hit the road to face the down-trodden Rams on Sunday in Los Angeles. I'm not one bit worried about the Seahawks offense. They should go off against a Rams defense that is now missing all-world DT Aaron Donald among others. Meanwhile, Los Angeles will give the start to QB John Wolford - his first start since Week 10 against Arizona. Head coach Sean McVay has indicated that Wolford gives them a better chance to 'run their offense' given his experience over rookie Bryce Perkins, who was largely ineffective against the Chiefs last week. I believe 'running their offense' will involve throwing the football more, noting that the Rams had 37 pass attempts in Wolford's last start. The Seahawks defense can certainly be had, as we saw in last week's shootout loss against the Raiders. Considering we saw totals of 47.5 and 53.5 when the Seahawks and Rams matched up last year, I believe this total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (8*). |
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12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential as the Texans look to avenge last year's 31-21 loss to the Browns. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in last year's meeting but I don't believe the move is warranted. It has everything to do with the fact that the Texans have been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games with the 'under' cashing in each of their last three contests. The Browns posted an 'under' result last week as well as they pulled out a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. Here, Cleveland's offense figures to get a boost from the return of QB Deshaun Watson. While Watson is dealing with returning from a long layoff, he draws an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has seen things go from bad to worse. Houston checks in having allowed 29, 24, 23 and 30 points over its last four games, getting ethered by both the pass and the run. The Browns held up alright defensively on paper last week against the Bucs, but this is still a vulnerable unit that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Texans will give QB Kyle Allen another start in place of an ineffective Davis Mills. Allen was at least in sync with WR Nico Collins last Sunday, hitting him on six of nine targets. WR Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's been virtually invisible this season. RB Dameon Pierce remains the focal point of the Texans offense and he should bounce back with a full workload after being taken out of the gameplan thanks to Houston trailing big early last week in Miami. The Browns have been touched up for 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-22 | Fresno State v. Boise State UNDER 55 | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon as Fresno State battles Boise State for the Mountain West Conference championship. Fresno State has been building toward this game, seemingly improving defensively with each passing week, going from 30 points allowed against UNLV on November 11th to just 14 and 0 over the next two games against Nevada and Wyoming, respectively. Boise State did put up 42 points in last week's rout of Utah State but it isn't the offensive juggernaut it once was. You can be sure the Broncos will exercise some caution offensively here as Fresno State has been very opportunistic on defense, collecting five turnovers in the last two games combined and 11 over its last five contests. Noting that Boise State has completed more than 20 passes only twice in 12 games this season, topping out at 34 pass attempts over its last 11 games, it's unlikely we'll see the Broncos slinging it all over the field here. It's a different story for the Jake Haener-led Fresno State offense as it is pass-happy to say the least. With that being said, Boise State should match up well in that regard, noting that it has allowed 20+ pass completions and 300+ passing yards only twice this season, including last week against Utah State in a game where the Aggies could muster 'only' 23 points. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 60 points in a Boise State blowout earlier this season. I do think the Bulldogs have improved defensively since then and a more tightly-contested affair should lend itself to a lower-scoring contest as well this time around. Considering the closing total for that first matchup was 45.5, the case can certainly be made that we're working with an inflated number here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted out of both of these teams over the last couple of games to set us up exceptionally well with the 'under' in this Sun Belt Conference Championship matchup on Saturday. Both teams saw their last two contests go 'over' the total, not only that, but both were turnover-prone in their respective regular season finale, leading them to perhaps approach this game with a little more caution than they might have otherwise. For Coastal Carolina, there's certainly reason to go ultra-conservative on offense in this game with QB Jarrett Guest struggling since taking over for NFL prospect Grayson McCall. Guest was directly responsible for two turnovers in each of the last two games (his two starts since McCall went down with a season-ending injury). Facing an opportunistic and perennially-tough Troy defense here, the Chanticleers won't want to leave anything to chance, perhaps putting this game largely in the hands of their defense (which is in line for a strong bounce-back effort after a poor performance against James Madison last week). Troy hung 48 points on the scoreboard in last week's rout of hapless Arkansas State. Keep in mind, however, that the Trojans actually didn't reach the end zone for a second time in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Like Guest, Troy QB Gunnar Watson has also been mistake-prone tossing an interception to go along with a lost fumble in last week's contest. The Trojans, like the Chanticleers, want to run the football, but will be running into a Coastal Carolina defense that has held up reasonably well against the run this season, allowing 4.0 yards per rush overall and 3.7 away from home. Down the stretch the Chanticleers stiffened up against opposing ground attacks, yielding fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Coastal Carolina has put up 36, 42 and 35 points in winning the last three meetings in this series but they didn't match up in the regular season this year, and we're obviously talking about much different Chanticleers squads, certainly in those games with McCall at the helm of the offense. Noting that Troy has held seven straight opponents to fewer than 20 points but also finds itself in a letdown of sorts offensively off its highest-scoring performance of the season, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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