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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-19 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 47 | 16-10 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Panthers blowout win in Arizona last week while just missing with the same play in the Texans impressive road win over the Chargers. The latter game appeared headed well north of the total before things ground to a halt in the fourth quarter. I’m not anticipating a similar story to unfold here. This is another fine matchup for Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen, who delivered a truly impressive performance, albeit against a very beatable Cardinals defense last week. The Panthers speed at the wide receiver position is likely to give the Texans fits here while RB Christian McCaffrey should have little trouble both on the ground and through the air against a defense that has been very vulnerable against opposing running backs this season. It’s always a bit of a leap of faith when supporting the Texans offense, due to a couple of reasons, the least of which being the play-calling of Bill O’Brien and the other the issues on the offensive line. Houston did seem to sort out its o-line issues in last week’s game and the pure talent of QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins always helps limit the worry around this offense in general. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants OVER 48.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Redskins ugly, turnover-fueled blowout loss to the Bears on Monday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Washington will certainly be taking a step down in class against the Giants defense, which has been repeatedly abused by opposing offenses this season. There’s no help coming for the G-Men in that department, in fact things could get even worse due to injuries at the linebacker position. Meanwhile, the New York offense got a major boost from rookie QB Daniel Jones last Sunday in Tampa and he’s primed for another big performance here. We saw New York TE Evan Engram absolutely explode against the Bucs last week and we can count on more of the same against the Redskins weak pass defense here. Even with the absence of all-world RB Saquon Barkley, look for the Giants offensive resurgence to continue for another week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 67 | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Nebraska at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘over’ in Ohio State’s last road game, a 51-10 win at Indiana two weeks ago. While I do expect to see another strong showing from the Buckeyes defense, I also look for Nebraska to feed off the energy of a raucous home crowd and at least hold their own defensively for a stretch in this one, which will be enough to keep the final score ‘under’ the inflated total. It’s hard to imagine any Ohio State total not being inflated at this point as the Buckeyes have scored an incredible 214 points through four games, looking virtually unstoppable in the process. I simply see this as the game where things settle down a little bit. I’m not sure Ohio State is interested in getting involved in another shootout with the Cornhuskers after narrowly escaping with a 36-31 victory in this matchup last November. Take the under (10*). |
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09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion OVER 46.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between East Carolina and Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last September as East Carolina pulled out a 37-35 victory. While I’m not anticipating that level of shootout on this occasion, I do think the potential is there for this one to fly ‘over’ the relatively low posted total. Save for a 48-point outburst against FCS squad Gardner-Webb, East Carolina hasn’t been able to get much going offensively this season. It is, however, coming off a victory over William & Mary last week that saw it get a spark from its ground game and I see this as an excellent opportunity to build on that performance against an Old Dominion defense that has been better than advertised but may be in for a letdown here. Old Dominion has dropped back-to-back games at Virginia Tech and Virginia after opening its campaign with a field goal win over Norfolk State. The Monarchs games have been lower-scoring than expected on the whole which certainly helps our cause playing the ‘over’ in this one. Note that we played the ‘over’ in ODU’s 31-17 loss at Virginia Tech earlier this season, a game that fell just short of the total. The Monarchs allowed an offensive touchdown in all four quarters in that game. This is a smash spot for the ODU offense against a Pirates defense that has been crushed in its only two games against FBS competition, allowing a whopping 76 points against N.C. State and Navy. The 42 points ECU allowed at against Navy could have been even worse had the Midshipmen not eased off the gas after building a 39-point lead. Here, I’m anticipating a more competitive game and that lends itself to a high-scoring result. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 61 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas A&M and Arkansas at 12 noon et on Saturday. This matchup produced just 41 total points last season and I believe oddsmakers are being very generous putting this total in the high-50’s on Saturday. Texas A&M has exploded against the likes of Texas State and Lamar but has been held at bay in both of its ‘step-up’ games against Clemson and Auburn. Of course, those latter two opponents are two of the best teams in the entire country and Arkansas is far from their level. With that being said this is a strong motivational spot for the Razorbacks at home off a poor showing against San Jose State on this field just last week. I’m confident the ‘Hogs will hold their own defensively but not so sold on their offense which has been completely held at bay in two of four games this season, including a matchup against Ole Miss in which they didn’t score an offensive touchdown until the game’s final two minutes. Last week we saw Arkansas score a touchdown with about a minute left in the first quarter but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the first two minutes of the fourth quarter – and that was against a San Jose State squad that had given up 34 points in a blowout loss against Tulsa the game previous. I don’t see the Razorbacks busting out offensively against an Aggies team that is better than their 2-2 record indicates. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech OVER 52 | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Friday. With Virginia Tech coming off back-to-back relatively low-scoring contests here in Blacksburg we're dealing with a reasonably low total as the Hokies host the Blue Devils on Friday night. I'm anticipating plenty of offense, however. Note that Virginia Tech has scored at least an offensive touchdown in all four quarters of two of its three games to date this season. Last time out against Furman, the Hokies got off to a very slow start but ultimately rallied to score three second half touchdowns in a narrow victory. Save for a beatdown at the hands of Alabama back in Week 1 (in which it gave up five offensive touchdowns in the second and third quarters) Duke hasn't really been tested defensively with its last two wins coming against North Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee. Offensively, the Blue Devils haven't really missed a beat without QB Daniel Jones, with Quentin Harris passing for nearly 600 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two games. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 45 points last September but that only serves to keep this total in a reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Packers offense has seemingly gotten better with each passing week in this, the first year of the Matt LaFleur era. That's not saying a lot as they've topped out at 27 points, but I see this as an absolute smash spot against a struggling and undermanned Eagles defense on Thursday night. The Philadelphia secondary is injury-ravaged and it certainly showed in last week's 27-24 loss to the previously offensively-challenged Lions, at home no less. It's hard to envision the Eagles figuring things out defensively playing on the road on a short week. On a positive note, Philadelphia is expected to have WR Alshon Jeffery back in the fold after he missed last week's game. I still have confidence in the Eagles offense, even with the rash of injuries that unit has dealt with. Note that while the Packers defense has been outstanding, they have still managed to allow exactly 16 points in back-to-back home games against the Vikings and Broncos, with opposing quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco turning in dismal performances. I do think we'll see the Eagles beat that point production in this one, which should put us in good position to cash our 'over' ticket. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 53 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 8 pm et on Thursday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in last year's meeting as Navy prevailed by a 22-21 score. Both the Midshipmen and Tigers enter this contest with undefeated records but their early schedules have been admittedly soft. With both coming off bye weeks they'll be eager to get rolling again here, and I'm anticipating a competitive, high-scoring contest. We certainly haven't seen the best from either offense in the early going this season, which is saying something considering Navy has scored 87 points through two games while Memphis has put up a whopping 97 points in its last two contests. While the Memphis ground game is capable of cranking it up against any opponent, I think this is the game where we'll see Tigers QB Brady White move the football at will against the Navy secondary. The question is whether Navy can keep up as a double-digit underdog. I do believe the Midshipmen will find some success offensively with QB Malcolm Perry rounding back into form. Last season was a general disappointment for the Middies offense but they're off to a solid start this year with Perry coming off a 156-yard, four touchdown rushing day against East Carolina last time out, adding two touchdowns through the air as well. I had this total pegged in the high-50's so I'm willing to take a shot at the current number. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 41 | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 82 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Bears offense has looked downright awful through two games this season but you have to consider the fact that they've had a tough draw, facing two tough defensive opponents in the Packers (who have been better than expected in that department) and the Broncos (in Denver). Here, I look for the Chicago offense, and QB Mitch Trubisky in particular, to get loose against a Redskins defense that has been awful for the most part through two games. Washington has played reasonably well defensively for stretches but even with that, has still given up a whopping 63 points. The Redskins have allowed 4.7 yards per rush so far this season and that should really help open things up for RB David Montgomery, who is coming off a nice performance last week in Denver. Chicago will be a popular road favorite play here but I'm not convinced it will be able to run away and hide on what will certainly be a highly-motivated and desperate Redskins squad off to an 0-2 start. Redskins QB Case Keenum has actually played pretty well when his team has been trailing in the early going this season, closing each of the last two games with late fourth quarter touchdown passes. He and WR Terry McLaurin have built a nice chemistry and can have continued success, even in a tough matchup here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers OVER 48 | 27-20 | Loss | -119 | 55 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Houston and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is another game that has major shootout potential on Sunday afternoon. The Texans are coming off one of the uglier games we’ve seen through the first two weeks of the season last week, barely eking out a win over the Jaguars at home. Here, I look for a much more explosive performance against a Chargers defense that has struggled in the early going this season, particularly against the run. It’s that lack of run defense (allowing over five yards per rush) that should open the door for Watson to have a monster day. Los Angeles simply doesn’t have anyone in the secondary that can contend with WR DeAndre Hopkins or even Will Fuller. On the flip side, the Chargers offense had a tough time in Detroit last week but catches a soft draw here as the Texans have allowed opposing rushers to gain 5.5 yards per rush. RB Austin Ekeler has made Chargers fans forget all about contract holdout Melvin Gordon and should continue to play a major factor in this week’s game against Houston. QB Philip Rivers hasn’t appeared to miss a step and should have little trouble tearing apart a weak Texans secondary with the help of WR Keenan Allen, who is healthy and appears to be in midseason form. I’m confident the losing squad gets well into the 20’s which suits our purposes just fine. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Panthers v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Panthers likely to be without QB Cam Newton and both of these teams coming off relatively low-scoring ‘under’ results last week, we’re being given a very reasonable total to work with here. I’m actually anticipating a bit of a shootout to develop here and will gladly play the ‘over’ at the number being offered. Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen doesn’t really represent much of a downgrade from Newton considering how hobbled Cam looked in the early going this season. The Panthers still possess an excellent wide receiver corps not to mention one of the best running backs in the league in Christian McCaffrey. This is an excellent breakout spot for the Panthers offense against a Cardinals defense that has looked awful without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford roaming the secondary. Carolina was expected to take a big step forward defensively considering the personnel moves it made in the offseason but so far, not so good as it has allowed opposing rushers to gain over 4.5 yards per rush and has by no means been a shut down unit against the pass. The Cardinals had a tough draw against the Ravens defense in Baltimore last Sunday but should bounce back here at home. Kyler Murray has turned in back-to-back 300+ yard passing games to open his career and he and WR Larry Fitzgerald should have a field day against the Panthers defense on Sunday afternoon. Don’t forget about Cards RB David Johnson either, who should have little trouble tuning up the Panthers struggling run defense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia UNDER 58.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Georgia at 8 pm et on Saturday. The last time these two teams met back in 2017 they combined to score just 39 points in a one-point Georgia victory. While many are expecting a much higher-scoring affair this time around, I don’t see it. Yes, Notre Dame is fresh off a 66-point explosion against New Mexico but the Lobos are one of the country’s weakest teams. Prior to that the Irish had their hands full on the road against Louisville, eventually pulling away for a 35-17 win. Georgia has taken full advantage of a fairly weak early-season schedule, scoring a combined 148 points in wins over Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. Defensively, the Bulldogs haven’t really been tested but there’s no question this is an elite group. The same goes for the Irish, who save for a couple of lapses have been rock solid through two games. They did give up 17 points against a mediocre Louisville offense in Week 1, but it’s worth noting that after giving up two touchdowns in the game’s first 11 minutes, they held the Cardinals out of the end zone the rest of the way. Over their last 7+ quarters of action the Irish have allowed just two touchdowns. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-19 | SMU v. TCU UNDER 55.5 | 41-38 | Loss | -108 | 67 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between SMU and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I absolutely love the way the ‘under’ sets up in this one as the undefeated Mustangs and Horned Frogs go head-to-head in Texas. SMU has absolutely shredded opposing defenses through three games, racking up 133 points. Keep in mind, those performances came against the likes of Arkansas State, North Texas and Texas State. This will certainly be the Mustangs toughest test to date against a terrific TCU defense. The Horned Frogs have allowed just 20 points through two games. Last time out against Purdue, TCU didn’t allow a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter when the game was already well out of hand. The Horned Frogs will certainly have their guard up against undefeated SMU and its high-octane offense. While the Mustangs aren’t known for their defensive ability and have given up 74 points through three games there is some reason for optimism here. Even when SMU gave up 30 points at Arkansas State in Week 1 it gave up a touchdown in the game’s first two minutes before holding the Red Wolves out of the end zone again until the third quarter. They gave up only two touchdowns in the first 58 minutes of the game against a good North Texas offense two weeks ago. My point is, they’re capable of holding up well for stretches and its not as if TCU is an offensive juggernaut. Last week at Purdue the Horned Frogs scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first quarter but didn’t find the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Even in their home-opener against FCS squad Arkansas-Pine Bluff they managed just one touchdown until the final 10 seconds of the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Auburn v. Texas A&M OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show |
CFB SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Auburn and Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This matchup didn’t develop into a shootout last year as Auburn prevailed by a 28-24 score. I do think the potential is there for this year’s meeting to play out a little differently, however. Auburn didn’t exactly come roaring out of the gates this season, needing a big fourth quarter rally to outlast Oregon by a 27-21 score back in Week 1. The Tigers followed that up with an unimpressive 24-6 win over Tulane but then got loose for a 55-16 rout of Kent State last Saturday. I believe that explosive performance last week, in which they scored two offensive touchdowns in three of four quarters, was just what the doctor ordered heading into this showdown. Texas A&M turned in a similar performance last week, blowing the doors off FCS squad Lamar 62-3. I liked the way the Aggies kept their foot on the gas in that contest, even scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns when the game was already completely out of hand. They may need all the offense they can get against Auburn this week. Texas A&M has actually held up quite well defensively through three games, although the loss to Clemson certainly could have been much worse had the Tigers not eased up after building a big second half lead (not to mention the fact that Clemson is still finding its offensive rhythm. Given the early season schedules, we really don’t know exactly how good either of these defenses are. I have more faith in the offenses ability to produce at this stage of the season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Western Michigan v. Syracuse OVER 65 | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 63 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Western Michigan and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in Syracuse’s blowout loss at home against Clemson last Saturday night but despite that dud, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Western Michigan will be Syracuse’s opponent this time around and the Broncos are off to an excellent offensive start, having scored 122 points through three games, albeit with most of the damage being done in matchups with Monmouth and Georgia State. Western Michigan was held to only 17 points in its lone road test to date, but that came against Michigan State in East Lansing – a tough challenge to be sure. Credit WMU for scoring a pair of touchdowns and putting together three scoring drives in that contest. Here, the Broncos should find the going much easier against a Syracuse squad that has only been able to slow down FCS opponent Liberty through three games this season. In the Orange’s other two contests they allowed a whopping 104 points against Maryland and Clemson. We saw the Syracuse offense get bogged down last Saturday but that was against one of the best defenses in college football in Clemson. I fully expect a strong bounce-back performance against the Broncos. Note that two weeks ago against Michigan State, Western Michigan allowed three offensive touchdowns in the first quarter alone and six over the course of the game. The Broncos have really had a tough time containing opposing ground games so far this season and will have their hands full again at the Carrier Dome. This one has true shootout potential noting that last year’s meeting produced 97 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State OVER 55 | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 1 m | Show |
CFB MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Air Force and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We saw a shootout between these two teams last year as Boise State prevailed by a 48-38 score in a wild contest. I expect more of the same as the Falcons and Broncos do battle on Friday night in Boise. We won with Air Force in its outright underdog victory on the road against Colorado last Saturday. That win didn’t come easy as the Falcons coughed up a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter before winning in overtime. This is an experienced Air Force offense that is operating at a high-level running the option. Remember, in its season-opener it put together five touchdown drives in the first half alone, albeit against FCS squad Colgate. Here, the Falcons know they’ll need to put 7’s on the board on most drives in order to keep up with the Broncos. Boise State is off to a perfect 3-0 start this season but after scoring 36 points in its season-opening win at Florida State, it has sputtered a bit, scoring 59 points in its last two wins over Marshall and Portland State, both at home. The last time we saw the Broncos on national TV they managed only 14 points in the victory over Marshall. I look for them to find a lot more success moving the ball against a middle-of-the-road Air Force defense. I liked the way Boise State worked sophomore dual-threat QB Chase Cord into the action last week against Portland State. He essentially took over the game late, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. His presence gives the Broncos offense another element that Air Force will need to prepare for after really struggling defensively in this matchup a year ago. Credit Boise State for giving up just 17 points in its last two games but I don’t believe those results necessarily mean its defense is elite. As a single-digit favorite at home, I don’t think we’re going to see the Broncos run away and hide in this one, and that lends itself to a high-scoring affair on the blue turf. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 39.5 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tennessee and Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total is about as low as it gets in today's NFL but it's warranted in my opinion. We're talking about two teams that have no interest in speeding things up due in large part to their 'game manager' quarterbacks. Titans QB Marcus Mariota missed practice earlier this week and might not be at full speed on Thursday night, further hampering an already-below average Tennessee offense. Yes, RB Derrick Henry absolutely ran wild against the Jags in a Thursday night matchup last December but don't count on history repeating itself here. The Jags have already had their season derailed, first with the injury to QB Nick Foles and then with star corner Jalen Ramsey asking to be traded. For now Ramsey is still on the team and he should play a big part in slowing the Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee's defense catches a matchup it can handle here with Jags backup QB Gardner Minshew a 'dink-and-dunk' type of player. Look for the Titans to stack the box against Jags RB Leonard Fournette and force Minshew to beat them through the air in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane UNDER 56.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and Tulane at 8 pm et on Thursday. We’ve split a couple of totals plays on games involving Houston this season, playing the ‘over’ on both occasions. Here, I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Cougars travel to face upstart Tulane. Despite scoring 92 points through three games this season, the Houston offense really hasn’t been all that imposing. In their opener at Oklahoma, the Cougars didn’t find the end zone until less than five minutes were left in the first half. They turned in a terrific stretch of offensive football early against FCS squad Prairie View A&M the next week but didn’t reach the end zone after the game’s first 20 minutes. Last Friday night against Washington State the Cougars put together two touchdown drives in the second quarter but didn’t find the end zone again until there were two minutes left in the fourth quarter. You get the picture. Tulane is coming off a 58-point explosion last week, but that came against FCS squad Missouri State. Note that the Green Wave have yet to have a quarterback throw for more than 200 yards or anyone rush for 100 yards in their first three contests. Tulane has taken care of business against the opponents it should but scored just six points in its lone loss, a 24-6 setback at Tulane two weeks ago. The Green Wave defense has been as good as advertised, giving up just 40 points through three games, including only 24 at the Hands of Auburn. In that game against the Tigers, they held QB Bo Nix to just 19-of-37 passing for 207 yards and limited lead rusher JaTarvious Whitlow to less than 100 yards on the ground. Houston took this matchup in blowout fashion last year, 48-17. I’m anticipating a much tighter affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons OVER 52.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a fun Sunday night shootout between two NFC squads coming off much different results last week. Philadelphia needed a big second half rally to outlast Washington, at home no less. While the Eagles offense got rolling as the game progressed, we saw some major cracks in their defensive armor, particularly in the secondary - as expected. The Eagles vaunted pass rush was a no-show and if they can't right the ship here they'll be in for a long night against a still-loaded Falcons offense that is in line for a strong bounce-back performance at home. Atlanta couldn't get anything going last week in Minnesota and the Vikings controlled proceedings thanks to a highly-effective ground game. Here, I do look for the Falcons to see a lot more opportunities on offense - and to make the most of those with WR Julio Jones in line for a monster performance against a very beatable Eagles secondary. Last week's primetime games were generally low-scoring but I look for a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens OVER 46 | 17-23 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are quick to dismiss the Ravens’ 59-point outburst in Miami last week, citing the fact that the Dolphins are the worst team to grace the NFL in quite some time. While there may be some truth to that, this matchup actually sets up almost as well for the Ravens offense as they return home in excellent position to crush the Cardinals below-average defense. Arizona allowed Lions QB Matt Stafford to throw for just shy of 400 yards last week, albeit aided by overtime. As long as Patrick Peterson and Steven Alford remain sidelined, the Arizona defense is going to have a nightmarish time trying to slow down opposing passing games. Lost in the Ravens air show last week was the fact that RB Mark Ingram gained 107 yards and scored two touchdowns on just 14 carries. Cards rookie QB Kyler Murray got off to a rough start to his NFL career last week but did settle in as the game progressed and ultimately developed a nice rapport with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Murray catches a break here, facing the Ravens without their secondary at full strength after losing Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith. Of course the Cardinals offensive line remains a concern but in a game that projects to be lopsided in favor of Baltimore, I suspect Murray will have ample opportunity to air it out, noting that the Cards play at an extremely quick tempo. I’m not all that comfortable laying double-digits at this early stage of the season so instead we’ll bank on the Ravens doing their thing offensively while the Cards contribute enough to help this one ‘over’ the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 44 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the lowest-scoring games on the board in Week 2 after both teams saw relatively high-scoring results in Week 1. Both the Colts and Titans are going to employ "run-first" offenses this year, and that was evident last week. While I do believe Colts RB Marlon Mack and Titans RB Derrick Henry can both find some room to run (and catch) in this particular matchup, I don't think that's a bad thing for us as it helps keep the clock moving. I do question whether we'll see quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota end a lot of drives with 7's on the board rather than 3's. Note that the Colts lost WR Devin Funchess to broken collarbone last week after he had gotten off to a nice start with Brissett. Meanwhile, the Titans pass-catching group is as weak as it gets once you move from TE Delanie Walker, who has served as Mariota's security blanket, so to speak. I believe we're getting a favorable total here thanks to an overreaction to Week 1 results. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 49 | 43-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting an absolute annihilation in this game, and rightfully so. With that being said, I prefer to focus on the total, where I think there is considerable value with the 'under'. Keep in mind, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores is a disciple of Bill Bellichick and I'm not convinced Bill will be all that interested in running up the score in this particular matchup. The Dolphins got caught flat-footed defensively against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. I look for them to come in a little better-prepared to face the division rival Patriots here. Offensively, don't count on the Dolphins gaining any sort of traction against a still-underrated Patriots defense. Miami couldn't get much going last week and will find the going even tougher in this one. Look for the Dolphins to make a concerted effort to control the clock and do everything they can to keep Tom Brady off the field. It won't translate to a win, but I do look for it to result in a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The Seahawks got more than they bargained for at home against the Bengals last Sunday but did manage to pull out a 21-20 victory. The fact that they allowed only 20 points in that contest was a flattering result based on how their defense actually played on the field. The Steelers defense took a beating at Foxborough last Sunday night, suffering an ugly 33-3 loss. This is a more favorable draw at home facing a Seahawks team traveling from the west coast but I still expect Pittsburgh to give up its share of points in this one. Look for strong performances from QB Russell Wilson and WR Tyler Lockett in as Lockett matches up tremendously well and will be eager to rebound following last Sunday’s no-show (the Bengals defense keyed on him early and never let up). The Steelers were taken completely out of their gameplan last Sunday night as they fell behind early and never recovered. I don’t believe there’s any reason to panic, however, as Pittsburgh boasts a loaded offense that should thrive in this matchup. RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster are two of the game’s best players at their respective positions and JuJu in particular should have no trouble breaking loose against a weak Seattle secondary, which in turn should set things up nicely for Conner in a game where he should see heavy usage. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 62.5 | 41-6 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Clemson and Syracuse at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m expecting a shootout at the Carrier Dome on Saturday night as Clemson puts its undefeated record on the line against Syracuse. Despite scoring 76 points through their first two games, the Tigers actually haven’t been operating at a truly high level offensively just yet. QB Trevor Lawrence has completed just 37-of-58 passes for 436 yards, two touchdowns and a surprisingly three interceptions through two games but I look for a big bounce-back performance in ideal conditions inside the Carrier Dome on Saturday. After cruising to a shutout win over FCS squad Liberty in its opener, Syracuse got rolled by a 63-20 score at Maryland last week. The Tigers gave up six touchdowns in the first half alone in that game and don’t appear well-suited to slow down the multi-faceted Tigers offensive attack here. We can count on the Orange to at least try to keep pace here, noting that they did score two touchdowns in the first quarter-and-a-half of last week’s game before things got completely out of hand. A return home should certainly help their cause as this team is built for the fast track. Clemson’s defense was certainly up for last week’s showdown with Texas A&M but we could certainly see a bit of a letdown in that regard here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 45 | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Iowa and Iowa State at 4 pm et on Saturday. This has traditionally been a low-scoring matchup with last year’s meeting producing a grand total of just 16 points. Iowa was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected in its season-opener, defeating Miami-Ohio by a 38-14 score. It’s worth noting that there were only 17 points scored in the first half of that contest. Iowa didn’t manage to find the end zone until nearly halfway through the second quarter. Again last week we saw the Hawkeyes offense sputter a bit as it scored two early touchdowns but then went from midway through the second quarter until less than three minutes remaining in the third quarter to reach the end zone again. They ultimately won that game by a 30-0 score over Rutgers. Iowa State hasn’t played since pulling out a 29-26 triple-overtime win over FCS squad Northern Iowa back on August 31st. That game saw just 26 points scored in regulation time. Iowa State didn’t register a touchdown until midway through the third quarter. The Cyclones didn’t actually give up an offensive touchdown until the second overtime period in that game. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | UNLV v. Northwestern UNDER 54 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 75 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between UNLV and Northwestern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. UNLV is coming off back-to-back relatively high-scoring games to open the season but both of those came at home. After scoring a whopping 56 points in a season-opening win over FCS squad Southern Utah the Rebels were brought right back to Earth in a 43-17 loss to Arkansas State last week. Note that UNLV didn’t actually allow an offensive touchdown in that game until over six minutes into the second quarter and that was against an underrated Arkansas State offense. Once the Red Wolves jumped ahead by a considerable margin the Rebels came unglued. Note that UNLV allowed a touchdown around six minutes into the second quarter against Southern Utah in its opener but then didn’t give up another touchdown until the fourth quarter. This week’s opponent, Northwestern, is by no means an offensive juggernaut. The Wildcats offense really struggled, albeit against a terrific defense, at Stanford in its season-opener. However, defensively give them credit as they allowed just one offensive touchdown in the entire game and that didn’t come until the final four minutes of the first half. Northwestern isn’t really the type of team that is likely to run away and hide, regardless of the level of competition and I don’t think the UNLV offense has enough to help this one ‘over’ the total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Arkansas State v. Georgia UNDER 58 | 0-55 | Win | 100 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arkansas State and Georgia at 12 noon et on Saturday. Arkansas State has been involved in back-to-back high-scoring games to open the season but those results weren’t unexpected against SMU and UNLV. Here, the Red Wolves will be taking a major step up in class on the road against Georgia and I don’t expect their offense to thrive as it has in the last two weeks. Keep in mind, last week against a bad UNLV defense, Arkansas State didn’t find the end zone on offense until nearly midway through the second quarter. In the Red Wolves season opener against SMU they scored a touchdown in the first two minutes of the game but then didn’t reach the end zone again until early in the third quarter. Defensively, the potential is certainly there for Arkansas State to get torched in this game but I do think its offense can do enough to control the clock somewhat and keep the Georgia offense off the field for stretches. What I’m not convinced of is that the Red Wolves can end those offensive drives with points on the board. Georgia has scored 93 points through two games but 63 of those came against FCS squad Murray State last week. That game essentially turned on an early second quarter fumble return for a touchdown from the Bulldogs. From there they absolutely exploded, scoring four offensive touchdowns in a seven-minute stretch in the second quarter. Through two games, Georgia has allowed only one offensive touchdown and that came on a defensive breakdown early in last week’s game against Murray State (60-yard touchdown pass). Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple OVER 63.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -112 | 72 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Maryland and Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday. This has the potential to be one of the higher-scoring games on Saturday’s board as far as I’m concerned. Maryland is due for a letdown after lighting up Howard and Syracuse for 142 points in its first two games. I don’t think this is the spot, however, as Temple hasn’t been tested, rolling to a 56-12 win over FCS opponent Bucknell last week. There’s no question the Owls were impressive in that victory as they scored three touchdowns in the game’s first 13 minutes and never let up, even scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns when they were already up by 30 points. Keep in mind, Temple has an experienced quarterback in Anthony Russo and he was on point last week, completing 32-of-41 passes for 409 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Maryland actually gave up two touchdowns in the first quarter-and-a-half against Syracuse last week before a couple of late first half touchdowns of its own put things out of reach. I liked the way the Terps kept pouring it on, scoring a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns after they had already built a 29-point advantage. Expect a shootout here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State v. Mississippi State OVER 52 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas State and Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State has feasted on a couple of inferior opponents to open the season, rolling to a 49-14 win over Nicholls State and a 52-0 shutout of Bowling Green. I like the way the Wildcats have gotten off to extremely fast starts, putting together five scoring drives in the first quarter of their first two games, including four offensive touchdowns. That’s certainly a promising start following a dismal offensive campaign a year ago. Ball State transfer RB James Gilbert has been a bright spot, racking up 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. QB Skylar Thompson, albeit against inferior opposition, has seemingly found some rhythm, completing 26-of-35 passes for 363 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Now the Wildcats face a tougher test in SEC opponent Mississippi State, but I do think Kansas State can still keep it rolling offensively. Note that in the Bulldogs toughest test to date, they allowed 28 points against Louisiana-Lafayette. Last week they gave up only 15 points against Southern Miss, and none until less than five minutes were left in the third quarter but it is worth noting that the Eagles drove into Mississippi State territory in two of their first three drives, missing a field goal on one and giving up a fumble on another. Once the Bulldogs build a sizable lead Southern Miss completed abandoned its gameplan and couldn’t get anything more going on offense. Here, I’m obviously anticipating a more competitive affair and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring game between two offenses that have been very efficient in the early going. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston OVER 75 | 31-24 | Loss | -109 | 84 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington State and Houston at 9:15 pm et on Friday. This matchup will be pegged as a shootout and that’s precisely how I expect it to play out on Friday night in Houston. Note that this game will be played in ideal conditions inside NRG Stadium, the home of the Houston Texans. Washington State is off to a 2-0 start but that was fully expected given it opened against New Mexico State and Northern Colorado. I do like the fact that despite being involved in two blowouts, the Cougars didn’t let up as those games progressed, scoring at least a touchdown in all eight quarters of football played this season. They know they’ll need to score early and often here as Houston has the personnel to match them touchdown for touchdown. Washington State QB Anthony Gordon has completed 60-of-74 passes for 884 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception through two games. Houston checks in sporting a 1-1 record, opening with a blowout loss at Oklahoma before bouncing back with a blowout win of its own against FCS squad Prairie View A&M last week. Cougars QB D’Eriq King has not performed particularly well through two games this season but I’m confident he can turn it around. The good news is the Houston ground game appears to be in midseason form and should open things up for King against Wazzu here. Even without King in top form, it took Houston less than a quarter to rack up 24 points last week. That game saw five scoring drives in the first quarter alone. The Cougars were able to ease off the gas pedal in that game, but that won’t be the case here. This total is high, but the number is warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | Kansas v. Boston College OVER 53 | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday. High-scoring games should be the norm in games involving Boston College this season and while Kansas doesn’t look like a formidable opponent coming off a 12-7 loss to Coastal Carolina, I do think the Jayhawks can have enough offensive success to push this one ‘over’ the total. Note that Kansas did have RB Pooka Williams back following a one-game suspension last week and he ran for 99 yards on 22 carries. Senior RB Khalil Herbert has run for 170 yards and a touchdown through two games. The Jayhawks know they won’t be able to rely on their defense to keep them in this game as Boston College has exploded out of the gates offensively, scoring nine touchdowns in the first half alone in its first two games. The Eagles have an experienced offense led by RB A.J. Dillon who has ran for three touchdowns already this season. While the Kansas defense has held up well so far, it has faced the likes of Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. This game represents a major step up in class. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 49 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Wake Forest at 6 pm et on Friday. Wake Forest is coming off back-to-back high-scoring games (and ‘over’ results) to open the season but I look for this particular contest to be lower-scoring than most are expecting. The Demon Deacons have played two below-average defensive teams in their first two games, Utah State and Rice. Their offense has certainly clicked, putting up a whopping 79 points already but here they’ll face a tougher test in the form of 2-0 North Carolina. The Tar Heels have allowed just 45 points through two games against South Carolina and Miami, so it’s not as if they’ve played FCS pushovers. Against the Gamecocks, UNC gave up a touchdown with just over three minutes left in the first quarter but then held them out of the end zone until there was just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Last week, the Tar Heels didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the final 25 seconds of the first half against Miami. On the flip side, the Demon Deacons defense has been up and down but did settle in last week (admittedly after Rice lost its starting quarterback to injury), holding the Owls scoreless in the second and third quarters before allowing a garbage time touchdown once the game was out of hand in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With North Carolina playing on a short week off back-to-back tightly-contested victories, I don’t think it will have any interest in getting involved in a shootout here. Tar Heels QB Sam Howell has attempted exactly 24 passes in each of the first two games. North Carolina has proven capable of controlling the clock by moving the football on the ground and I’m anticipating a similar gameplan here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Most of the trends may be pointing to a relatively low-scoring result between these winless NFC South rivals on Thursday night, but I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks and believe the total will prove too low. The Bucs couldn't have looked much worse in last week's season-opening 31-17 loss to the 49ers. That game was pegged as a shootout but it never materialized due in large part to four Tampa Bay turnovers. QB Jameis Winston obviously needs to be better if the Bucs are to have any shot at upsetting the Panthers on Thursday night and I'm confident he will be. Note that after being held to less than 20 points in five straight meetings, Tampa Bay scored 28 and 24 points in two matchups with Carolina last year. Virtually all of the Bucs key pieces on offense are healthy entering this game after WR Mike Evans was slowed by illness last week. TE O.J. Howard and WR Chris Godwin in particular are due for strong bounce-back performances here as Tampa Bay likely finds itself in catch-up mode for most of this game. I fully expect to see the Carolina offense move the football and score at will on the Tampa Bay defense in this one. The Bucs pass rush was completely non-existent against the 49ers last week and while San Francisco wasn't really in great position to take full advantage, Carolina will be. Cam Newton should have little trouble bouncing back from an uneven performance last week with a clean pocket to work with on Thursday night. RB Christian McCaffrey draws an extremely favorable matchup as well, noting that he ran for 185 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries against Tampa in two meetings last year. We saw an absolute snooze-fest last Thursday night but I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 10:15 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams present more questions than answers on offense with the Broncos turning to veteran QB Joe Flacco and the Raiders moving on from the short-lived Antonio Brown-era on Monday night. One thing we know for sure is that both Flacco and Raiders QB Derek Carr struggle to push the football down the field with any efficiency. Expect Carr in particular to be under pressure all night long against the Broncos vaunted pass rush. Meanwhile, the Broncos will simply ask Flacco to be a 'game manager' and let their rushing attack do most of the heavy lifting. Denver isn't a good enough team to suffer a letdown defensively, even against an undermanned offensive opponent. Meanwhile, Oakland has had plenty of success against Denver here at home over the years and will still carry some confidence. In a competitive early season division game, I'll stick with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints OVER 52 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I really expected to see this total skyrocket in advance of Monday's showdown between the Texans and Saints but that hasn't been the case. I'm willing to take the matchup at face value, however, and certainly anticipate a high-scoring affair on Monday night. It's worth noting that the Saints defensive will be missing two key linemen in Mario Edwards and Sheldon Rankins due to injuries. I do have plenty of respect for the Saints secondary but they're beatable and I'm confident the Texans have the personnel to find some mismatches. On the flip side, I don't think the Texans defense has a hope of stopping or even slowing down the Saints offense. QB Drew Brees may be on the down side of his career but he always seems to get off to a strong start in September and this is the perfect matchup for him to really find success distributing the football against a simply overmatched Texans defense. Jadeveon Clowney and Tyrann Mathieu were just two key offseason losses for the Texans. Look for the Saints to move the football at will in this game while the Texans thrive in comeback mode, forcing a shootout on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers UNDER 45 | 24-30 | Loss | -112 | 76 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Indianapolis and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a matchup of two offenses that had the potential to be great before being derailed by the retirement of Colts QB Andrew Luck and holdout of Chargers RB Melvin Gordon. What could have been an opening week shootout now looks a lot more like a defensive struggle and I don’t believe the oddsmakers have properly accounted for that with this total. I’ve heard plenty of praise for Colts QB Jacoby Brissett but let’s face it, he’s not a true NFL starter. I do like the fact that the Colts return all five starters to their offensive line which should at least help them hold onto the football for extended stretches on Sunday afternoon, but that clock-churning really only helps our play on the ‘under’ as I don’t see them punching it into the end zone consistently. The Colts defense remains an underrated unit. Their ‘bend but don’t break’ style should once again serve them well (and ‘under’ bettors as well). This is a defense that returns 10 of 11 starters from a year ago, not to mention the key addition of pass-rushing specialist Justin Houston. While I do like the Chargers aerial attack, this isn’t a great matchup against the Colts solid secondary. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | 43-13 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tennessee and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I love the way this one sets up as one of the lowest-scoring games on the board this week. The Titans offense has the potential to be bad, real bad. One of the only things it really has going for it is RB Derrick Henry and let’s face it, he has been injury-plagued and inconsistent over the course of his career. Tennessee’s wide receiving corps is one of the worst in the league and QB Marcus Mariota will be staring down at one of the best defenses in football on Sunday in the Dawg Pound. With all of that said, Tennessee might be able to hang tough in this game thanks to its own stellar defense. The Browns have received so much hype for their talent at the skill positions on offense, but what about their terrible offensive line, which reared its ugly head in the preseason? If they can’t keep Baker Mayfield upright it could be a long afternoon in Cleveland. This has all the makings of a slugfest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars OVER 51.5 | 40-26 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This matchup resulted in a 30-14 win for the Chiefs last season but there’s reason to believe this year’s encounter will be much higher-scoring. The Chiefs are going to have a tough time repeating the level of offensive production they reached last year but there’s little reason to expect them to take much of a step back either. This is a terrific opening week matchup against a Jaguars defense that lost a number of key pieces from last year’s team. QB Patrick Mahomes should once again have a field day. On the flip side, the Jags offense can only get better following the departure of QB Blake Bortles. Nick Foles has done nothing but exceed expectations over the course of his career and he gets a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that was generally awful last season and doesn’t figure to get much better here in 2019. Expect Foles and WR Dede Westbrook to do a number on the Chiefs secondary while RB Leonard Fournette – by all accounts fully healthy entering the season – paces the offensive charge against a Chiefs defense that couldn’t stop anyone on the ground last season. This total is one of the highest on the board for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-19 | West Virginia v. Missouri UNDER 62.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 73 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between West Virginia and Missouri at 12 noon et on Saturday. These two teams are coming off very different results last week as West Virginia escaped with a 20-13 win over FCS squad James Madison while Missouri fell by a 37-31 score on the road against Wyoming. There are a couple of things to note when it comes to the Tigers wild, high-scoring affair a week ago. Their offense scored two touchdowns in the first quarter but didn’t reach the end zone again until a couple of minutes into the fourth quarter. Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant was terrific for the most part, but he’ll face a tougher test against the Mountaineers defense this week. West Virginia allowed a rushing touchdown late in the first quarter against JMU but then didn’t give up another TD the rest of the way. The Missouri defense couldn’t stop the Wyoming ground game but did do a nice job of completely shutting down the Cowboys through the air. Keep in mind, the Tigers didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until over midway through the second quarter and ultimately allowed only three offensive touchdowns in the game, with two of them coming on long runs of 60+ yards. I don’t expect to see those type of defensive breakdowns back home as a two-touchdown favorite this week. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-19 | Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech OVER 56 | 17-31 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Old Dominion and Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is a rematch of last year’s wild 49-35 upset win by Old Dominion and I’m anticipating another high-scoring affair. ODU managed only 24 points in last week’s narrow win over FCS squad Norfolk State but keep in mind that was against a quality FCS program. The Monarchs were efficient moving the football, particularly on the ground, as they put together three offensive touchdown drives. Concerning was the fact that their defense sagged when they could have put the game away, giving up two touchdowns in the first 10 minutes of the fourth quarter. Virginia Tech scored offensive touchdowns in all four quarters against Boston College last week but couldn’t hold up at all defensively, giving up five offensive touchdowns in a 35-28 loss. While this isn’t as tough of a matchup by any means, I’m not convinced the Hokies defensive issues can be fixed in a week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with Boise State but missed with the 'under' in the Broncos come-from-behind win over Florida State in what turned out to be a true road game due to Hurricane Dorian last week. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on the total here as Boise welcomes C-USA opponent Marshall on Friday night. All indications are that the Broncos have no interest in getting involved in another wild, high-scoring shootout here. Head coach Brian Harsin has been emphasizing tackling, ball security and field position in advance of this game (which will be played on a short week after that grueling affair in Tallahassee). It's worth noting that despite allowing 31 points against the Seminoles, Boise State did show the ability to play sound defense for an extended stretch, holding a better offense than they'll face on Friday scoreless over the game's final 34 minutes. Offensively, the Broncos didn't find the end zone in that game until there were just over four minutes left in the first half. Marshall put up 56 points in a blowout win last week, but that came at home against FCS squad VMI. I'll also point out that the Thundering Herd didn't score a touchdown in that game until just over three minutes remaining in the first quarter. The game essentially turned on a punt return touchdown less than two minutes later. From there, the floodgates opened. I certainly don't expect the Broncos defense to wilt the same way the Keydets' did last week. Credit the Marshall defense to limiting VMI to only 201 passing yards last week, not easing off even after building the insurmountable lead early. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While I can understand the logic behind so-called 'sharp' money coming in on the 'under' in advance of Thursday's season opener in Chicago, I'm confident going the other way and calling for a relatively high-scoring affair between these NFC North rivals. The Packers offense should only improve with QB Aaron Rodgers back healthy and Mike McCarthy and his awful play-calling having been ushered out the door. The Matt LaFleur era is about the get underway and despite the fact that Rodgers didn't see a single preseason snap, I'm confident this offense can get off to a positive start, even against a vaunted Bears defense. Chicago's pass rush and run defense are obviously stellar, but I am confident that Rodgers can be granted enough time in the pocket to improvise if necessary and should have little trouble finding his stellar but perhaps unheralded group of receivers against what should be an overmatched Bears secondary. We know what we're going to get from WR Davante Adams as he's a bonafide star in this league. However, I also look for a big game from Geronimo Allison here as he looks to build off what he and Rodgers built during his rookie campaign. Chicago's offense gets severely overshadowed by its tremendous defense but I actually expect big things from this unit in year two under Matt Nagy. RB David Montgomery is the real deal and will be running behind a terrific offensive line that returns all five starters from a year ago. While Montgomery should be in for a big game (note the Packers inexplicably let their best run stopper DT Mike Daniels go in the offseason), I also think we'll see Mitchell Trubisky take another big step this season after throwing 24 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions last year. The WR duo of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller doesn't get a lot of hype but they're capable of going off against a beatable Packers secondary. I actually do have a lot of respect for the Packers defense, and in particular their re-tooled pass rush but I'm not sure we'll see them firing on all cylinders right out of the gate and they face a stiff challenge trying to penetrate the aforementioned Bears o-line while also giving the proper amount of attention to the rookie Montgomery. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma OVER 79 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 60 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oklahoma at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. This total is exorbitantly high, but it is so for a reason. Houston's offense is absolutely loaded this season with QB D'Eriq King back from injury and a wealth of talent around him. Oklahoma may be a college football superpower but its defense hasn't been good in recent years, and this is an awfully tough matchup right out of the gate. The Sooners lose a ton of talent on offense heading into this season but the cupboard is never bare in Norman. After losing Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in consecutive years they won't be turning to an unseasoned freshman - instead it will be veteran QB Jalen Hurts running the offense and I don't expect this unit to miss a beat. The last time these two programs met back in September 2016 a true shootout never developed. I expect a different story to unfold here as both teams should find the end zone at will all night long. Take the over (10*). |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State UNDER 52 | 36-31 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Florida State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I expect the offenses to rule the night as these two powerful programs go head-to-head in a key Week 1 matchup. Both teams have some uncertainty at quarterback, even if they are saying all the right things heading in. Boise State turns to a true freshman to run the offense in Hank Bachmeier. He's going to be a good one but how much of the offensive playbook will they put in his hands on night one of the season? Against a defense as fierce as Florida State's? I'm not sure he'll be asked to do too much. James Blackman is the man under center for the Seminoles after winning the job in fall camp. He of course does have experience running this offense but the 'Noles are perennial under-achievers offensively and I'm not convinced the start of the 2019 campaign will prove any different against a formidable defensive opponent in Boise State. Take the under (10*). |
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08-30-19 | Utah State v. Wake Forest UNDER 63.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Friday. If this matchup were to take place a couple of weeks from now I might be on the opposite side of the total but here in Week 1, I look for the defenses to be a little ahead of the offenses. Both the Aggies and Demon Deacons are dealing with some key losses on the offensive side of the football. For Utah State, most of QB Jordan Love's top targets are gone from a year ago. So is RB Darwin Thompson. The pieces are in place for the offense to keep rolling, but I do think it's going to take some time, and this isn't an ideal matchup, traveling east to face an upstart Wake Forest squad that has been to three straight Bowl games, and one that took the last meeting between these teams in 2017 by a lopsided 46-10 score. I don't expect to see the Demon Deacons to run wild against the Aggies defense this time around, however. Utah State boasts a stronger defense now, even after losing some key parts from last year's group. Meanwhile, Wake Forest knows that it needs to be better - much better- on the defensive side of the football in order to take a step forward in the ACC this year. I'm confident the 'D' can and will be better, and it all starts with this matchup. Offensively, the Deacons lose their star WR Greg Dortch, who was a do-it-all type that will certainly be missed all over the field. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-19 | Kent State v. Arizona State UNDER 62 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Arizona State at 10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen fairly consistent money flow in support of the 'over' in advance of this non-conference matchup on Thursday night. At first glance, I can see where 'over' backers are coming from. After all, Kent State had one of the MAC's worst defenses last season - a unit that truly has nowhere to go but up with plenty of experience returning - and also boasts a capable offense led by veteran QB Woody Barrett - a former Auburn transfer. Keep in mind, the Golden Flashes offense tried their best to play fast last season, using the gimmick name 'FlashFast', but still scored more than 26 points in a game against FBS opposition only twice. I expect similar tough sledding here as they travel across the country to face an underrated Sun Devils defense that figures to improve on a campaign that saw it allow just 112 points in six home games last season. On the flip side, the Arizona State offense is ushering in a new era with freshman Jayden Daniels having won the starting QB job. Not only that, but the Sun Devils are missing one of their anchors on the offensive line in Zach Robertson who is away from the team dealing with personal issues. We'll see flashes of brilliance from Daniels on Thursday night, but I'm not convinced we'll see the full scope of the offense in Week 1. Of course, gone are QB Manny Wilkins and WR N'Keal Harry who lit it up in the passing game a year ago. Expect to see plenty from RB Eno Benjamin, but Herm Edwards won't overwork his bell cow should things get out of hand. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL UNDER 47.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Miami at 7 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening and it's the right move in my opinion. Miami will be turning to redshirt freshman Jarren Williams to take over as starting quarterback. While I do feel going with Williams was the right move, I'm not certain we'll see him come out all guns blazing against an elite Florida defense on Saturday. Turnovers were the Hurricanes downfall last year and as a result I'm not expecting to see them really open up the playbook for Williams here, especially considering they're in transition on the offensive line after losing their right and left tackles from last season. The Gators offense has the potential to be electric this season but this is a tough opening week matchup against a talented and experienced Hurricanes defense that will be highly-motivated to play well for new head coach and former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. Florida's offense only really got rolling in its last four games last season, scoring 35+ points in all four of those contests. Of course, there's a big difference between taking advantage of worn down opposing defenses late in the season and going up against a fresh unit in late August. Keep in mind, like the Canes, the Gators have also suffered big losses on their offensive line, even worse in fact as they lose four starters from last year's team. Both of these teams have everything to play for on Saturday night and I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Eagles win over the Bears last Sunday and also missed with the ‘over’ the last time Philadelphia played here in New Orleans back on November 18th. With that being said, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as this one sets up as a shootout at the Superdome. The Eagles should come in believing they can score in this game after going up against one of the best defenses in football last week in Chicago. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Philadelphia offense as it hits the fast track in New Orleans. I liked some of the changes we saw the Eagles make offensively against the Bears, bringing WR Golden Tate back into the picture, and I do feel Tate can have an even bigger game against a vulnerable Saints pass defense in the slot. It’s also worth noting that WR Alshon Jeffery matches up particularly well with whoever he lines up against on this Saints defense. On the flip side, we’ve got the Saints at home – we know they’re going to put points on the board. I give the Eagles undermanned defense a lot of credit as they have done an excellent job instilling a ‘next man up’ philosophy following a number of key injuries in their secondary. However, there’s a big difference between facing the Bears and young QB Mitch Trubisky and going up against one of the best quarterbacks of all-time in Drew Brees and a loaded Saints offense. I don’t believe the books have set this number high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and New England at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total in this game but I’m anticipating a bit of a slugfest. The Chargers offense is somewhat limited with RB Melvin Gordon dealing with a myriad of injuries. Give him credit for sticking it out and turning in a solid performance against the Ravens last week but it’s really difficult to gauge just how much he has left in the tank for this one. I have felt all season that the Patriots possess an underrated defense that is capable of rising to the occasion when it needs to. This is certainly one of those spots where the Pats are going to need a peak performance from their defense as I’m really not sure how much success Tom Brady and company will have on offense against a talented and creative Chargers defense. Los Angeles defensive coordinator Gus Bradley pushed all the right buttons in last week’s dominant performance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens run-first offense. The Chargers will face a much different challenge here but I do expect them to show up and play well again. Note that the Patriots scored 27 points or less in six of their final nine regular season games and they eclipsed that number against the likes of the Packers, Dolphins and Jets so it’s tough to envision them getting back to that level here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 41.5 | 16-15 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Philadelphia and Chicago at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. I would imagine the books will see plenty of support for the ‘under’ leading up to this matchup but I feel the total will prove too low. The common line of thinking is that a late afternoon January game at Soldier Field will be a defensive slugfest but the matchups indicate otherwise. The Eagles are injury-ravaged in their secondary and really up against it facing a versatile Bears offense that can beat you in a lot of different ways. Chicago is guided by one of the best offensive minds in football in head coach Matt Nagy and I’m confident he’ll have an excellent gameplan laid out for beating this undermanned Philadelphia defense. What the Eagles do have going for them is a gutsy QB in Nick Foles who despite playing hurt, should find a way to put some points on the board in this game with a number of weapons at his disposal. The Bears certainly possess an elite defense but they’re facing an Eagles offense that still has most of the key pieces from last year’s Super Bowl run and I don’t think we’ll see Philadelphia go away quietly. We don’t need a shootout to cash this ticket and that certainly plays into our favor. Take the over (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up as a high-scoring playoff showdown between two familiar division opponents. I don’t believe the Texans pass defense can do much to slow a red hot Colts aerial attack led by QB Andrew Luck. Buoyed by a relatively weak schedule, the Houston pass ‘D’ is a ‘paper tiger’ as far as I’m concerned. Look for the Colts to move the football at will through the air in the friendly confines of Reliant Stadium on Saturday afternoon. I do fully expect this to be a competitive affair, and if we project the Colts to move the football and put plenty of points on the board, the Texans are going to have to as well. Houston obviously does have offensive weapons, namely dual-threat QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Colts defense has been good, but ultimately got here thanks to facing a rather limited Titans offense led by backup QB Blaine Gabbert last Sunday night. They will be taking a step up in class in this one. We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams during the regular season, and I expect nothing different here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 55.5 | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. State and Texas A&M at 7:30 pm et on Monday. This game has major shootout potential with both the Wolfpack and the Aggies featuring capable quarterbacks and dynamic ground games. Both offenses are certainly comfortable in what they do and closed out the regular season on high notes with N.C. State routing East Carolina and Texas A&M prevailing in an overtime thriller against LSU, 74-72 (yes, you read that right). Neither defense is a pushover by any means, but these units have also become somewhat accustomed to getting involved in high-scoring affairs. I believe both teams will come in with the mentality that they need to end drives with 7's rather than 3's in order to prevail in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Monday. Cincinnati put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch this season but it did so against weak opposition. Meanwhile, the Bearcats were held to 13 points against UCF, 26 points in an overtime win over SMU and 17 points in an overtime loss to Temple, just to name a few subpar offensive performances. Virginia Tech isn't the defensive powerhouse it once was, but it can still hang. Like the Bearcats, the Hokies offense didn't do a great job when stepping up in class this season. Prior to scoring 34 and 41 points in their final two regular season games, they had put up 28 points or less in six consecutive contests. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. You can be sure there will be a lot of bettors looking for action eager to play the 'over' in this, the lone game on the board on Christmas Eve. I can't help but feel the total has been shaded a little high. Note that the Raiders have been involved in a string of relatively high-scoring affairs with the 'over' going 3-1-1 in their last five contests. I'm not sure that's sustainable, however, noting that the Oakland offense is rather punchless. While the Raiders defense has been bad as well, I don't believe the Broncos are well-suited to take advantage. With RB Philip Lindsay struggling over the last couple of games, the Denver offense hasn't been able to gain any headway. An injury to WR Emmanuel Sanders - QB Case Keenum's favorite target - hasn't helped. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series and none of those games have really come all that close to going 'over'. That includes earlier this season, when the Broncos beat the Raiders 20-19 with a field goal in the closing seconds. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. There's really nothing to fear when it comes to the Rams offense right now. Injuries have taken their toll with WR Cooper Kupp sidelined and RB Todd Gurley banged-up to say the least. We've seen a severely limited Sean McVay offense in the last couple of games and things don't figure to get much easier as they hit the road to face a Cardinals squad eager to play the spoiler role on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Arizona offense continues to struggle. Now they go up against a highly-motivated Rams defense that has gotten better with the return of CB Aqib Talib. Note that the Rams shut out the Cardinals earlier this season and have allowed just 16 points in taking each of the last three meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Texans v. Eagles OVER 46 | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are really an 'over' bettors' dream at this stage of the season. Their defense is completely decimated in the secondary and they've had no luck at all slowing down mobile opposing quarterbacks. Their offense is pass-first and appears rejuvenated with Nick Foles back under center, not to mention the fact that they've got their issues sorted when it comes to recently-acquired WR Golden Tate, who is not a fit in this offense. Tate has seen limited action in the last two weeks, to the benefit of the Eagles passing game. The Texans scored 29 points in a win over the Jets last Saturday and have now scored more than 20 points in five straight games. QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day against the Eagles struggling secondary on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an excellent spot to back the 'over' as the Giants aim to bounce back from a truly ugly showing at a rain-soaked Meadowlands last Sunday. Look for RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram to pace the charge for the Giants offense, which has certainly been handicapped by an ineffective Eli Manning this season. The Colts offense didn't have to do a whole lot at home against the Cowboys last week as they cruised to a 23-0 victory. QB Andrew Luck will likely have to dial it up a little more in this one, and should have plenty of success against a very limited Giants defense that has been getting ripped on a regular basis this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 42 | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at StubHub Center on Saturday night. The Ravens offense has had some success since going with Lamar Jackson under center but this is a tough matchup, traveling across the country to face a banged-up but still strong Chargers defense. The strength of the Los Angeles defense lies in its secondary right now. The Chargers should be able to cheat a little bit in this one and force Jackson to beat them through the air, something he hasn't done particularly well since taking over the starting job. Los Angeles staged an incredible fourth quarter comeback in Kansas City last week but QB Philip Rivers should find the going tough against a tough Ravens defense on Saturday. WR Keenan Allen may be able to play but it's unlikely he'll be 100% healthy. The same goes for RB Melvin Gordon. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army OVER 59 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
NCAAF Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Army at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Army's last game, its annual clash with Navy earlier this month. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in this one, however, even with Houston missing QB D'Eriq King to a knee injury. Keep in mind, in the Cougars last game against Memphis, backup QB Clayton Tune threw for over 250 yards and three touchdowns. I do believe the Cougars will be able to move the football against this Army defense. On the flip side, Houston is not a good defensive team, getting ripped time and time again over the course of the season. I'm not sure the extra preparation time will have helped all that much as they get ready to go up against the Army triple-option offense. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Florida International v. Toledo OVER 57 | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida International and Toledo at 12:30 pm et on Friday. We saw a couple of situations where Toledo came out completely flat and was held down offensively this season but for the most part, the Rockets were explosive to say the least and I fully expect to see them get up for this Bowl tilt with Florida International on Friday. The Panthers saw a similar story unfold over the course of the regular season as they put up some gawdy offensive numbers on several occasions but were also held down in a couple of flat spots. This is not such a flat spot as the Panthers will be up for an opportunity to secure a Bowl win against a MAC opponent. There's little reason to anticipate either team holding much back in the Bahamas on Friday - I believe we're dealing with a reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida OVER 51 | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Marshall and South Florida at 8 pm et on Thursday. I believe this game has shootout potential, noting that Marshall posted an 8-4 o/u mark during the regular season while South Florida certainly was involved in its share of high-scoring affairs as well. The Bulls limped down the stretch but I don't believe they'll shy away from a shootout on Thursday night. Given they've had no success slowing down opposing running games, they'll be hard-pressed to avoid having to let it rip on offense in order to keep up. If nothing else, Marshall has been consistent putting points on the board this season, putting up at least 20 points in each and every game. The Thundering Herd scored 30+ on five different occasions. I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-18 | Texans v. Jets UNDER 44 | 29-22 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in New Jersey on Saturday afternoon. The Texans have generally been good for around 20 points or less on the road this season, outside of a shootout victory over the Colts in Indianapolis, but that came back in late September. The Jets are coming off an unexpectedly high-scoring affair in Buffalo last Sunday, winning by a 27-23 score. That was their highest scoring output since putting up 42 points against the aforementioned Colts back in mid-October. New York has been outgained by over 120 total yards in four consecutive games. The last meeting between these two teams came back in 2015 and it resulted in only 41 total points. I don't expect to see much different of a story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I believe we're dealing with a very reasonable total in this matchup, largely due to how inept the Vikings offense looked in last week's ugly 10-point effort in New England. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here as the Seahawks have certainly been beatable on defense this season, regardless whether they've been at home or on the road. Key here may be the fact that Seattle is giving up nearly six yards per rush in recent weeks, and goes up against a highly-motivated RB in Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are beat up defensively and will go up against a Seahawks offense that seems to be gaining confidence with each passing week. Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett is poised for a big performance against a struggling Vikings defense in the slot. Meanwhile, RB Chris Carson has given Seattle some real consistency in the backfield. Minnesota has been tough against the run but I think the Seahawks will be creative enough with Carson and Rashaad Penny running the football to make some headway. Take the over (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Navy v. Army UNDER 40.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday. The 'under' cashes each and every year in this matchup and while we're dealing with a very low total this time around, I still believe the number will prove to be too high. Army has its best defense in years and comes into this game on an incredible run, having allowed 22 points or less in regulation time in 10 straight games. Only in the Black Knights season-opener against Duke did they give up more than that number. While Navy did score a combined 65 points over its final two regular season games, those performances came against Tulsa and Tulane. They'll be facing a much tougher challenge here. There's no question its been a down year for Navy football as the Midshipmen check in with just three wins to their credit. The familiar matchup should help to keep them competitive, however, and I believe that lends itself to another relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night. This should be a matchup for the Redskins offense to take advantage of with the Eagles defense completely injury-ravaged in the secondary. However, Washington's offensive line is also severely short-handed due to injuries and I'm not convinced that QB Colt McCoy will have enough room or time to find his targets downfield and expose the Eagles weakness in the secondary. On the flip side, we should see Philadelphia show a renewed commitment to their ground game with RB Josh Adams coming off a tremendous second half performance against the Giants last week. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with the 'over' cashing in four of the last five meetings. That only serves to give us a relatively high total to work with in this key December divisional matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Denver and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a lower scoring game than most expected last week at home against Pittsburgh but it’s not as if the Steelers didn’t move the football all afternoon long. The common line of thinking here is that the Denver defense will be able to manhandle the Jeff Driskel-led Bengals offense but I’m not so easily convinced. Driskel has actually had quite a bit of experience running the Cincinnati offense in the preseason and attempted 29 passes in relief of Andy Dalton last Sunday against Cleveland. I like the fact that Driskel got his feet wet with a touchdown pass to WR Tyler Boyd last week and expect him to build off of that 17-29, 155 pass yards performance against a beatable Broncos secondary. Driskel is expected to have WR A.J. Green at his disposal for this one as well. The Denver offense has been hit-or-miss for the most part this season but lately we have at least seen some consistency as the Broncos have scored 20, 45, 23, 17, 23 and 24 points over their last six games with the outlier coming in a pre-bye week game against the Texans. Here, the Broncos will go up against an awful Bengals defense that simply isn’t stopping anyone right now. Look for RB Philip Lindsay and WR Emmanuel Sanders to go off in this game. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here, largely due to the unappealing matchup between two 5-6 teams. I believe we will see more offensive fireworks than most anticipate. Take the over (10*). |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo UNDER 51 | 30-29 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Illinois and Buffalo at 8 pm et on Friday. We haven't seen all that great quarterback play from either of these teams down the stretch. Northern Illinois QB Marcus Childers has thrown just three touchdowns compared to four interceptions over his last six games. Meanwhile, Bulls QB Tyree Jackson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just two of his last eight games. Northern Illinois was once a shoo-in for this game, but not in recent years. Meanwhile, the Bulls will be going Bowling for the first time in a long time, but they want more than that in the form of a MAC Championship. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Friday night at Ford Field and that lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 46 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in Seattle’s win over Green Bay last Thursday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson looks as healthy as he has been all season and has now thrown for over 400 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games. Add in the fact that RB Chris Carson has been productive in four of his last six games and this is an offense with a lot of upside right now. The Panthers benefited from facing a predictable Lions offense last week but still fell by a 20-19 score. There should be a sense of urgency as they return home this week off of back-to-back road losses. I’m still high on the Carolina offense, which has certainly had its share of big games this season. We can count on a big bounce-back effort here against a beatable Seahawks defense that just isn’t what it once was, particularly in the secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Utah State v. Boise State OVER 66 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
NCAAF MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Utah State and Boise State at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. Unlike Boise State’s most recent big MWC test against Fresno State (we won with the Broncos in that game) which turned into a bit of a slugfest, we can expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Broncos welcome the Aggies to the blue turf on Saturday night. Utah State faced a bit of a challenge last Saturday as it struggled to get its usually-potent offense going on the road against Colorado State on senior night. I certainly anticipate seeing the Aggies offense bounce back in a big way here, however. Boise State’s defense does come in playing well but I’m not sure it’s sustainable against a top-level opponent. Note that the Broncos have allowed 44 points against Oklahoma State, 27 points against Nevada, 28 points against Colorado State and 38 points against Air Force this season. In other words, the Broncos defense is beatable. On the other side, Boise State’s offense is rolling right now, with QB Brett Rypien having thrown for 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions over his last five games. RB Alexander Mattison has racked up a whopping 299 rushing yards on 50 carries over his last two games and has found the end zone seven times in his last five. Utah State is 10-1 on the strength of its offense, not its defense and that should be evident against Boise State on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-18 | BYU v. Utah UNDER 44.5 | 27-35 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between BYU and Utah at 10 pm et on Saturday. While we’re dealing with a low total in this matchup, it’s pretty much par for the course in this rivalry and I believe it’s warranted again this season. BYU comes in having scored a whopping 80 points over its last two games, but those came against lowly UMass and New Mexico State. Prior to those two victories, the Cougars had scored just 22 points combined in back-to-back losses at home against Northern Illinois and at Boise State. Utah has been feasting on offense lately as well, but again, it has had a lot to do with its schedule. The Utes Pac-12 slate was top-heavy to say the least as they opened their conference slate with back-to-back losses against Washington and Washington State, scoring just 31 points in the process. I don’t believe they’re the offensive juggernaut they look like on paper, and they’ll certainly face a tough test against rival BYU on Saturday. Last year’s meeting totaled just 32 points as Utah prevailed by a 19-13 score. Expect to see a defensive tone set once again. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Wake Forest v. Duke UNDER 59.5 | 59-7 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. While I'm not expecting a defensive slugfest in this game, I do feel that the total has simply been set too high. Wake Forest has really cooled off on offense here in November, scoring 24, 27 and 13 points in winning just once in three games. On a positive note, the Demon Deacons defense has done a better job lately, most recently holding Pitt to just one touchdown until over midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago they gave up just one touchdown through three quarters of football against N.C. State. Duke suffered an expected 35-6 loss at Clemson last week but should bounce back here. I don't consider the Blue Devils to be an elite offensive team, however, noting that they've scored fewer than 30 points in six of 11 games so far this season. They've had a few scoring outbursts here and there, but in this particular spot, I feel they'll simply be looking for a bounce-back win following last week's ugly performance. Style points don't mean a whole lot in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Purdue v. Indiana OVER 64.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Purdue and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’m comfortable playing the ‘over’, even at a rather lofty number on Saturday afternoon in Bloomington. Purdue has now dropped back-to-back games, with the latest coming in heartbreaking fashion at home against Wisconsin last Saturday. The Boilermakers offense did keep rolling along in that game, with QB David Blough throwing for just shy of 400 yards and four touchdowns. Now he faces a sieve-like Indiana defense that has come apart at the seams down the stretch this season. On the flip side, the thinking is that the Hoosiers won’t shy away from another shootout, with Bowl eligibility hanging in the balance. Their offense stalled last week, but that was against mighty Michigan in The Big House. They’ll be taking a big step down in class here against a weak Boilermakers defense. Prior to last week’s poor showing, Hoosiers QB Peyton Ramsey had thrown for over 230 yards in seven straight games. I’m confident Indiana RB Stevie Scott will also have a field day against the Boilers’. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-18 | Arkansas v. Missouri OVER 59 | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arkansas and Missouri at 2:30 pm et on Friday. There is high potential for a shootout when the Razorbacks and Tigers do battle in Columbia on Friday afternoon. Keep in mind, this matchup produced a whopping 93 points a year ago. While we may not get quite that level of shootout this time around, I still feel we’re dealing with a very reasonable total. Arkansas is rounding out a dismal campaign, having posted just two victories to date. We haven’t seen many signs of life from the Hogs offense over the last couple of games, but those have been in tough matchups at home against LSU and at Mississippi State. They’re certainly capable of busting out given the fact they’ve put up 31 points against Alabama, 33 against Ole Miss and 31 against Vandy this season. Here, they get a Missouri defense that has held up well lately, but has certainly been vulnerable at times this season. The Tigers offense continues to hum along, having scored 111 points during their current three-game winning streak. They should be able to keep on rolling against an Arkansas defense that has given up at least 37 points in four of its last five losses. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-18 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
NCAAF Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Nebraska and Iowa at 12 noon et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair in Iowa City on Friday afternoon. Nebraska is coming off an exceptionally low-scoring result against Michigan State last week, prevailing by a 9-6 score. Keep in mind, just two weeks ago, the Huskers were involved in a wild 54-35 home win over Illinois. The week previous to that they fell just short in a shootout at Ohio State, losing by a 36-31 score. Those type of shootouts have been the norm for Nebraska this season so I look at last week’s result as nothing more than a late season anomaly. Iowa absolutely shredded Illinois last Saturday, rolling to a 63-0 victory. QB Nate Stanley’s streak of three straight games throwing for over 200 yards came to an end, only because of game flow. While the Hawkeyes are known for their defense, they’ve also been involved in their share of shootouts this season, winning 48-31 at Minnesota and losing 30-24 at Penn State and 38-36 at Purdue. Last November, Iowa posted a 56-14 rout of Nebraska. I’m anticipating a more competitive game this time around, and I believe that sets up well for the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. If we lose this play, so be it. I'm just not sure where the offense is going to come from with the Bears missing their emerging young quarterback and the Lions without their top rusher and one of their top two wide receivers, not to mention their starting right guard. Chicago is playing on an extremely short week after outlasting the Vikings on Sunday night. It has barely practiced in advance of this game and I can't imagine QB Chase Daniel will have the full offensive playbook at his disposal. Of course, the Bears defense is one of the few dominant defenses left in the NFL today. They'll have a major advantage against an undermanned Lions offense that is missing RB Kerryon Johnson, who is coming off one of the best efforts of his young career, and played a major part in the first meeting between these two teams this season. On the other side, we've seen the Lions defense improve, particularly against the run, since adding Snacks Harrison. While their secondary is missing some key cogs, I'm not sure the Bears will be able to take full advantage without Trubisky. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams UNDER 63.5 | 51-54 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'm going to take the contrarian route and back the 'under' in this showdown between the Chiefs and Rams on Monday night. The move from Mexico City to Los Angeles didn't have any effect on this total, despite the fact it would have set up even better for the 'over' in the high altitude of Mexico, where the defenses would have likely worn down in a hurry. The Chiefs defense in particular has actually performed well lately, allowing just 10, 23, 21 and 14 points during their current four-game winning streak. They'll obviously be taking a big step up in class here but I do feel they can hold up well. The Rams defense hasn't come close to living up to expectations but do benefit from catching the Chiefs at home at least. We certainly don't need a defensive slugfest to cash this ticket. A shootout and an 'under' result could actually correlate with the exceptionally high total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 45 | 20-25 | Push | 0 | 54 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 1 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. |
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11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars UNDER 47 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The Jaguars will be playing their first true home game since way back in Week 7. They do draw the red hot Steelers in a favorable spot here, with Pittsburgh playing on the road in an early start game, where QB Ben Roethlisberger has typically struggled. I do see this as a solid bounce-back matchup for the Jaguars defense, which hasn't come close to living up to expectations this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defense has quietly turned things around following a disastrous start to the season. The Steelers have to be licking their chops at the prospect of facing the Jags undermanned and overmatched offensive line. While RB Leonard Fournette did provide the Jags a spark in his return last week, I'm not sure he'll be able to do enough to make up for QB Blake Bortles shortcomings on Sunday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU OVER 72.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAF Friday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and SMU at 9 pm et on Friday. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week and the lofty number is warranted in my opinion. When these two teams met last season they combined to score 111 total points. Memphis has of course been involved in shootout after shootout this season. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Tigers last three games. We've seen at least one team score 50+ points in six of Memphis' 10 games overall this season. There's little reason to expect anything different on Friday as the Tigers face an SMU squad that is fresh off a wild 62-50 win over Connecticut last Saturday. After getting bogged down offensively in games against UCF, Tulane and Cincinnati, they've scored a combined 107 points in their last two contests. At least one team has scored 40+ points in seven of the Mustangs 10 games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Seattle on Thursday night as the Seahawks host the Packers in an intriguing NFC matchup. The Seahawks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Los Angeles last Sunday, ultimately falling by a 36-31 score against the Rams. Seattle's defense is undermanned, missing LB K.J. Wright once again. The Seahawks have been getting torched on the ground lately and this one sets up as another unfavorable matchup against an improving Packers running game. Green Bay RB Aaron Jones is gaining close to seven yards per carry and should have little trouble carving up the Seahawks vulnerable run defense here. That opens things up for QB Aaron Rodgers to perhaps finally turn in the big performance many have been waiting for. I have full confidence in the Seahawks offense going up against a banged-up Packers defense. Green Bay is already missing a number of key cogs and LB Blake Martinez is questionable as well playing on a short week on a bad ankle. The matchup sets up well for Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. I'm confident we'll see him take a lot of shots downfield with WRs Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett in this one. It's also worth noting that like the Seahawks, the Packers are vulnerable against the run, giving up just shy of five yards per rush over their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH v. Northern Illinois UNDER 48 | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Northern Illinois at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Miami-Ohio's big home win over Ohio last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Redhawks face another must-win situation on the road against Northern Illinois. Miami-Ohio has dealt with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football this season and as a result we've seen it get involved in its share of shootouts. However, it's also worth noting that the Redhawks have held six of 10 opponents to 26 points or less in regulation time. They jumped all over a weak Ohio defense last week, scoring 28 first half points, although QB Gus Ragland didn't throw for 200 yards nor did they have a 100-yard rusher in that victory. Now they go on the road and face a tough Northern Illinois defense that has given up 21 points or less in five of its last six contests. We saw the Huskies explode for 38 points last week against Toledo, although I will point out that their offense didn't find the end zone until the final 30 seconds of the first quarter and not again until nearly halfway into the third quarter. Two games back they scored 24 first half points but then their offense didn't reach the end zone again over the rest of the game. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We saw the 49ers post an 'under' result in primetime last week, rolling to a blowout victory over the hapless Raiders. Meanwhile, everyone is down on the Giants offense with struggling QB Eli Manning at the helm. With that being said, I believe we're in for a rather entertaining affair on Monday night as the Niners host the Giants in Santa Clara. As long as the G-Men have the likes of RB Saquon Barkley, WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepherd and TE Even Engram, they have a shot. The 49ers defense is banged up and hasn't been good against the pass at the best of times this season so I'm confident we'll see New York find some offensive success. Meanwhile, the San Francisco offense looked rejuvenated with QB Nick Mullens at the helm and I expect to see some carry-over from last week's performance. Like the Giants, the 49ers do still have talent at the skill positions on offense with RB Matt Breida, WR Marquise Goodwin and TE George Kittle. The Giants defense is undermanned, particularly in the secondary which opens the door for another solid performance from Mullens. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-18 | Cardinals v. Chiefs OVER 49.5 | 14-26 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. This isn’t one of the highest totals on the board this week but it absolutely should be as I believe it has shootout potential. The Cardinals are coming off their bye week but prior to that we saw new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich take over play-calling duties and show some glimmers of hope for this struggling group. Rookie QB Josh Rosen certainly has potential and that potential can be reached an awful lot sooner by better incorporating RB David Johnson and WR Larry Fitzgerald in the offense. Even though Arizona scored only 15 points in a loss to the 49ers last time out, Rosen actually threw for over 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns with Fitzgerald hauling in eight catches for over 100 yards and a score. The Cards offense obviously draws a favorable matchup here as the Chiefs have struggled on defense for much of the season, even if they have shown positive signs of late. To be honest, I’m not sure we’ll need all that much from the Arizona offense to get ‘over’ this reasonable total but we may get it anyway. No opponent has truly been able to slow down the vaunted Chiefs offense and I don’t expect anything to change on Sunday afternoon. RB Kareem Hunt should have an absolute field day against Arizona’s dreadful run defense while QB Patrick Mahomes will have little trouble carving up a secondary that faces considerable drop-off after Patrick Peterson. Even if WR Sammy Watkins can’t go in this one, forcing even more attention than usual WR Tyreek Hill’s way, the Chiefs simply have too many offensive weapons for the Cardinals defense to contend with. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL v. Georgia Tech UNDER 55.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
NCAAF TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Georgia Tech at 7 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-10-18 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 58.5 | 35-42 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Duke at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-10-18 | Navy v. Central Florida UNDER 63 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 40 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Central Florida at 12 noon et on Saturday. |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show |
NFL TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this total sets up on Thursday night. I expected to see a considerably higher number but perhaps the Steelers relatively low-scoring result last Sunday in Baltimore has helped keep it in check. We won with the 'under' in Pittsburgh's victory over the Ravens and also leaned hard to the 'over' in the Panthers rout of the Bucs. This is a favorable spot for both offenses on Thursday night and I believe both teams will come in with the mentality that they'll need to finish drives with touchdowns not field goals in order to secure a victory. This has the makings of a shootout. The Panthers offense was good, but perhaps not great against a weak Bucs defense last Sunday afternoon. RB Christian McCaffrey has taken his game to another level this season, which has had a lot to do with the outstanding run blocking by the Panthers offensive line. QB Cam Newton didn't have a banner game against the Bucs, but still put up solid numbers, and left some points on the field. He should be able to run wild against a Steelers defense that has had a tough time containing mobile quarterbacks this season. I also expect Newton and WR Devin Funchess, not to mention TE Greg Olsen to have a field day against this beatable Steelers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers defense is not all that imposing and faces a Pittsburgh offense that has been gaining steam lately, and really did a nice job of getting WR Antonio Brown going last Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger has enjoyed plenty of time in the pocket this season with the Steelers o-line doing a tremendous job protecting him, particularly of late. Big Ben should have all the time in the world to pick apart an average Panthers pass defense on Thursday night. The last time these two teams met they got into the 50's - that was back when the Panthers didn't have the explosive ground game they do now. Expect another shootout on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH UNDER 61.5 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio and Miami-Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Miami-Ohio's shootout with Buffalo last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Redhawks will return home and know that they'll need to play far better defensively in order to secure a critical fourth victory on the season. With only three games left on the schedule, the Redhawks will need to run the table in order to become Bowl eligible. They face a tall task here as Ohio checks in off three straight wins, scoring an incredible 160 points in the process. Note that Ohio has taken five straight meetings in this series, with the 'under' going 3-2 in those five contests. I like the way the Bobcats have been playing defensively holding three straight opponents to exactly 14 points. I certainly don't expect to see them repeat their 59-point explosion from last week, noting that they had scored 31 points or less in each of their first four road games this season including just 27 and 21 points in two previous MAC road tilts. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 56.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is the highest total on the board this week but it's warranted in my opinion. The Saints expected shootout with the Vikings fizzled last Sunday night as New Orleans jumped out in front and was able to control the game from there. Here, I'm anticipating more of a true back-and-forth shootout as both offenses are capable of scoring at will, and both will come in with the mentality that they'll need to finish drives with 7's on the board in order to secure a victory. The fact that we get this matchup in ideal conditions at the Superdome only adds to my confidence in the 'over'. The Rams will likely have WR Cooper Kupp back on the field and he should make an immediate impact against a beatable Saints pass defense. With all of the tools at his disposal, I'm confident Rams head coach Sean McVay will draw up a gameplan to scorch this up-and-down Saints defense. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense hasn't exactly lived up to expectations this season and the New Orleans offense continues to round into form, leading to a mismatch here. Saints WR Michael Thomas should have a field day, as should RB Alvin Kamara. I'm just not convinced either defense will have any answers on Sunday afternoon in New Orleans. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFL AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon as the Ravens and Steelers do battle for the second time this season. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the first matchup and I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this spot. The Steelers just aren’t the same offensive team on the road, particularly in these early start games. The Ravens defense didn’t perform well last week in Carolina but should bounce back against a familiar opponent here at home. This is still one of the best defenses in the league and they’ll certainly be up for this matchup against an explosive Steelers offense. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Pittsburgh’s defense play better lately, essentially dating back to that last meeting with the Ravens on September 30th. Since then, Pittsburgh has allowed 17, 21 and 18 points during its three-game winning streak. The Ravens offense has been good, but certainly not great on a consistent basis, having been held to 27 points or less in seven straight games since exploding for 47 points in their opener against the Bills. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins UNDER 48 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Atlanta and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total here considering both of these defenses come in playing relatively well. The Falcons are loaded with weapons on offense but they will face a tough test here as the Redskins are arguably playing their best defensive football of the season right now. That has had something to do with the schedule they’ve faced, although their current three-game winning streak did begin with a stellar defensive performance in a 23-17 win over the Panthers. Since getting torched by the Saints in New Orleans on Drew Brees’ record-setting night back on October 8th, they’ve really tightened things up. Getting the Falcons outdoors, away from the ideal conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is a key for Washington. On the other side of the football, the Falcons defense has played better the last couple of games and now comes off the bye week. Atlanta welcomed Grady Jarrett back last time out, and his presence will be key against the Redskins run-first offensive attack. With RB Chris Thompson banged-up, the ‘Skins aren’t able to fully employ their preferred short passing game, which would ordinarily be a massive advantage against a Falcons defense that is willing to concede passes to running backs. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-18 | Georgia Tech v. North Carolina UNDER 64 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAF ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Georgia Tech and North Carolina at 12:15 pm et on Saturday. Georgia Tech has certainly been involved in its share of wild, high-scoring affairs this season but I don’t believe this one sets up as another shootout between these two familiar opponents. Note that last year’s meeting went 33-7 in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Last week things got carried away early against Virginia Tech but we did see the Jackets settle down and play some good defensive football from the second quarter on. After giving up two early first quarter touchdowns, Georgia Tech held the Hokies to just one touchdown from five minutes remaining in the first quarter until less than four minutes left in the fourth. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in North Carolina’s 31-21 loss at Virginia last Saturday, but only by a couple of points. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Tar Heels return home. Note that their last home game resulted in a 22-19 loss to Virginia Tech back on October 13th. On the heels of four straight losses they know they’ll need to tighten things up against the Jackets explosive ground attack. Keep in mind, just two games back, Georgia Tech was held to only 14 points at home against Duke. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-18 | Louisville v. Clemson UNDER 62 | 16-77 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Louisville and Clemson at 12 noon et on Saturday. We’ve seen Clemson really run up the score on the road this season but it’s been a bit of a different story here at home, where the Tigers have done an excellent job of ‘managing’ games, still winning by margin, but perhaps not going full throttle on offense for four quarters. Their home scores to date are as follows: 48-7, 38-7, 27-23 and 41-7. Meanwhile, in four road games they’ve put up 28, 49, 63 and 59 points. Louisville has reason to show up here after getting flat out embarrassed in a 56-35 home loss to Wake Forest last time out. The Cardinals followed that up with their bye week. Note that they were similarly embarrassed in a 66-31 home loss to Georgia Tech on October 5th and followed that up with a more respectable showing in a 38-20 road loss at Boston College. I don’t believe this will be a competitive football game, and that lends itself to an ‘under’ result with the total sitting in the high-60s. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia OVER 48 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Virginia at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ (barely) in Virginia’s 31-21 win over North Carolina last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Cavaliers stay home to host Pittsburgh. Virginia has been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games lately and that goes hand-in-hand with its current three-game winning streak. Opponents simply haven’t been able to stay focused on running the football against the Cavaliers lately, largely due to game flow, ie falling behind on the scoreboard early. Here, I do believe we’ll see Pitt’s ground game find some success against the Cavaliers defense. The Panthers have sandwiched two wild, high-scoring games against Syracuse and Duke around a defensive slugfest against Notre Dame. We actually won with the ‘over’ in the game against Syracuse and the ‘under’ against Notre Dame. Save for that strong defensive showing against the Irish, the Panthers defense hasn’t held up well at all this season. This certainly isn’t a favorable spot, traveling on a short week after spending a lot of time on the field against Duke last Saturday. The Cavaliers have essentially been as good as they’ve needed to be on offense lately, and here I believe they’re going to have to generate their share of touchdown drives in order to outlast the Panthers. Note that QB Bryce Perkins has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of eight games this season and tossed three on only 27 pass attempts in last week’s win over North Carolina. Take the over (10*). |
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11-01-18 | Temple v. Central Florida UNDER 61 | Top | 40-52 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Temple and UCF at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up in Orlando on Thursday night. We’ve already cashed a couple of ‘under’ tickets in games involving Temple this season and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in this spot. Temple is coming off three straight victories and a bye week. In those three wins, the Owls allowed a grand total of just 40 points. Prior to that we had seen positive glimpses from their defense in dominating wins over Maryland and Tulsa, but there was also an ugly 45-35 loss at Boston College in the mix, not to mention a 36-29 setback at home against Buffalo in their second game of the season. The Knights will arguably offer the toughest challenge the Temple defense has faced so far this year. UCF has scored over 30 points in all seven games this season. With that being said, the only opponents the Knights have gotten into the 40’s or higher against were Florida Atlantic, Pitt and SMU. I would certainly rate the Temple defense higher than all three of those squads. Last time out, we saw UCF get held out of the end zone until nearly midway through the second quarter, and after adding another touchdown four minutes later, the Knights didn’t reach the end zone on offense again until six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. That was against East Carolina. Defensively, the Knights have been dominant for the most part, save for a couple of shootouts against Florida Atlantic and Memphis. It’s worth noting that UCF actually shut out Memphis from two minutes left in the first half on in a wild 31-30 come-from-behind victory, on the road no less, back on October 13th. To put it simply, the Knights can handle the Owls offense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo UNDER 51.5 | 42-51 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Buffalo at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Playing the 'under' in these early week college matchups used to be almost automatic but that hasn't really been the case in recent years. With that being said, I do like the way the spot sets up for a relatively low-scoring affair between Miami-Ohio and Buffalo on Tuesday night. For the Redhawks, it's getting late awfully early as they have just three wins to their credit with only four games remaining. In other words, they need to win at least three out of four in order to gain Bowl eligibility. They can ill afford to get involved in a shootout with the Bulls here, as their own defense simply hasn't proven it can slow opposing passing games this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo entered the campaign with high hopes and has lived up to expectations, going 7-1 SU. The Bulls have given up at least 28 points on three different occasions this season, but all three of those games were back in September. During their current three-game winning streak, the Bulls have allowed a grand total of just 47 points. Buffalo will face a stiffer challenge from the Redhawks offense than it did a year ago as Miami-Ohio has senior QB Gus Ragland under center. With a lot on the line for both teams, I tend to think we'll see a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 45 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Orchard Park on Monday night. The Patriots have been involved in back-to-back wild, high-scoring affairs but I don't believe they'll need nearly as much offense to secure a fifth straight win on Monday. It's certainly worth noting that the Pats have scored at least 38 points in four straight games heading into this one. While the Bills aren't thought of as much, the fact is they do possess a pretty solid defense, despite being on the field an awful lot this season. Their weakness is against the run but I'm not sure the Patriots have the ground game to take full advantage - especially with RB Sony Michel likely sidelined for this one. While New England is known for its offense, the Pats defense has come up big when called upon as well. You have to think the Bills will take a conservative approach with veteran Derek Anderson under center. That actually plays into the hands of a Pats defense that is hungry after giving up a ton of points in the last two weeks, albeit against two good offensive teams in the Chiefs and Bears. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Pats last three games. We haven't seen four straight 'over' results involving New England since the first four games last season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It seems that most are quick to downgrade the Raiders offense after dealing away WR Amari Cooper. The fact is, Coopers has underachieved in a big way this season and I actually feel his departure may serve to give this offense a bit of a jumpstart. This is certainly a 'get right' matchup against a weak and undermanned Colts defense. On the flip side, the Colts continue to bomb away with no running game to speak of. I certainly anticipate Andrew Luck having a field day against a very weak Raiders pass defense and non-existent pass rush. We're dealing with a high total for a reason in this one, yet most bettors aren't expecting much from either offense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the highest totals on this week's NFL board but it's warranted in my opinion. Both teams are dealing with cluster injuries on the defensive side of the football. The Bucs were already without Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry and will now have to go on without Kwon Alexander as well. Meanwhile, the Bucs are missing a number of key cogs, with Vontaze Burfict the latest to go down. Both offenses are poised to take full advantage on Sunday afternoon. We saw 'under' results from both teams last Sunday but that's of little consequence here. The Bucs were able to march the football up and down the field against a better Cleveland defense than the one they'll face here. The Bengals couldn't get out of an early hole against the Chiefs, which completely changed their offensive gameplan. They should be more comfortable back at home against arguably the league's worst defense in the Bucs. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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