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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-18-18 | Syracuse v. Michigan State OVER 129 | 55-53 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Little Caesars Arena - Detroit, MI
Michigan States offense is explosive averaging more than 81 ppg this season, and will force Syracuse in responding with some offensive fireworks of their own or get blown of the court. This will lead to a combined score that eclipses this number. Recently North Carolina scored 78 against Syracuse the Boston College 85 , and I'm betting Michigan State puts a similar of points on the board here. MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 OVERL/7 versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of with a combined average score of 149.3 ppg going on the board. SYRACUSE is 15-4 OVER L/19in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better with a combined average of 143 ppg going on the board.SYRACUSE is 10-1 OVER L/11 after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers dating back to last season with a combined average score of 1ith a combined average of 153.8 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (SYRACUSE) - after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 44-16 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in March games. are 61-25 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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03-17-18 | Portland State +6 v. San Diego | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Portland States Head Coach Barret Peery has shown his metal in his first year at the helm of the team, as the Vikings have registered a 20 win season, something many thought was improbable. This Portland State team is explosive offensively averaging 85.8 points per game on offense and are a dangerous opponent for teams like the San Diego Toreros squad that averages just 70.1 points per game on offense which ranks them 264th nationally. PORTLAND ST is 10-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. Vikings are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. West Coast Conference. CBB Home teams as a favorite or pick (SAN DIEGO) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an below average defensive team (47.5% or better ) after 15+ games are a long term negative out bet, as is evident by 171- 266 ATS mark over the L/21 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. Play on Portland State to cover |
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03-17-18 | Houston +3.5 v. Michigan | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Intrust Bank Arena - Wichita, KS
Cougars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. HC Sampson is 7-0 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick as the coach of HOUSTON. HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS L/7 after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last few seasons. Play on Houston |
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03-17-18 | Florida v. Texas Tech -1.5 | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - American Airlines Center - Dallas, TX
My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. With 10 players averaging over 12 minutes per game Texas Tech is a team that is able to sustain a high level of intensity on the floor for an entire game and as they have plenty of able bodied reserves to sub in when a player gets fatigued. Their extremely dangerous and must be respected here as short favs vs a good but inconsistent Florida side, that , on the other hand, only has 6 players that average over 12 minutes per game and relies heavily on front-end production ,which I'm betting will see them fade as this game progresses as exhaustion and foul trouble come into play. HC Beard is 20-7 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games in all games he has coached. Play on Texas Tech to cover |
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03-17-18 | Rhode Island v. Duke OVER 148.5 | 62-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - PPG Paints Arena - Pittsburgh, PA Look for Dukes powerful inside-outside game to go head to head in a back forth affair against the dynamic guard play of the Rams in a game I have projected to go over the total. DUKE is 11-1 OVER L/12 after a non-conference game this season with a combined average score of 169.7 ppg scored.DUKE is 10-2 OVER in non-conference games this season with a combined average score of 164.8 ppg scored. Over is 6-2 in Blue Devils last 8 neutral site games. Over is 7-3 in Rams last 10 neutral site games. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (RHODE ISLAND/DUKE) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (60 shots/game or more) after 15+ games are 160-88 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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03-16-18 | Florida State v. Missouri +1.5 | 67-54 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TNMy CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. Missouri has Michael Porter Jr. after missing most of the season with a back injury. This Tigers team is a top tier downtown shooting side and very consistent from the FT line, making them viable opponents for a inconsistent Florida state Seminoles team, that is just 7 - 9 away from home this season. The Seminoles coincidently do not guard the three well and are horrible from the charity stripe making them fade material in this spot.
.Play on Missouri to cover |
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03-16-18 | New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson | 68-79 | Loss | -108 | 62 h 23 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Viejas Arena - San Diego, CA My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. The WAC champ New Mexico State has a roster filled with big athletic men who are not easily intimidated and are a cohesive offensive unit lead by 20 point-per-game scorer Zachm Lofton and Jemerrio Jones who is the double-double demon.
Play on New Mexico State to cover |
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03-16-18 | Texas v. Nevada -1 | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 56 h 17 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TN My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals Nevada really takes care of the rock and they don’t turn the ball over very often, they’re also explosive of the land of the trey, and are dizzying with their ball movement. baskets. They had a crap tournament after a great season, but overall they beat teams by an average of over 11 points per game and must be respected behind an experienced older group. Meanwhile, Texas does not pas well and can are easily read when on the attack. Yes, they do defend the three well, but their overall game is lacking compared to this opponent. NEVADA is 27-14 ATS L/41 when playing against a team with a winning record .TEXAS is 4-17 ATS L/21 as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick.NEVADA is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite|(which happened in the MWC Tourney) Play on Nevada to cover |
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03-16-18 | Murray State +10 v. West Virginia | 68-85 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 10 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Viejas Arena - San Diego, CA
The Racers of the Ohio Valley Conference have not lost in almost two month and must be respected here as less than easy out for West Virginia. The Racers played a non-conference game against Auburn, which uses a similar pressing style of defense, that West Virginia uses, and lost by just a few points. Don't write off Murray State vs what my own power rankings suggest is a over rated West Virginia side. MURRAY ST is 8-2 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. CBB favorite (W VIRGINIA) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are just 17-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors. Play on Murray State to cover |
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03-16-18 | CS-Fullerton +21 v. Purdue | 48-74 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 59 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Little Caesars Arena - Detroit, MI My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. The Titans enter Friday's matchup having won eight of their last 10 games and are in top form. Fifteen seeds have upset two seeds eight times throughout NCAA Tournament history. Four of those times have happened since 2012, with the most recent coming in 2016 (MTSU over Michigan State). So don't be surprised by a freak show and more importantly getting us the cover vs a strong Big 10 program. CS-FULLERTON is 18-8 ATS L/26 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game.CS-FULLERTON is 11-3 ATS as an underdog this season. .PURDUE is 0-6 ATS L/6 after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers this season. NCAA No.2 seed as chalk of 18 or more points in the opening round of the national tournament have not covered in their L/18 tries vs a team off a win like Fullerton which cruised to a 71-55 victory over UC Irvine in the final winning the Big West Championship) Play on the Cal State Fullerton |
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03-16-18 | Providence +3.5 v. Texas A&M | 69-73 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 41 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Spectrum Center - Charlotte, NC
Providence is not an amazing team that stands put, but they are very deep , and that was evident when they took Villanova to OT in the conference final. This team is physical and can draw fouls, which is a positive for a team that is extremely proficient from the FT line. This team must be respected here as dogs vs a good but over rated Texas A&M Aggies side that lost 4 of their L/7 games overall including a collapse in the conference tournament to Alabama. Texas A&M is frustrating to watch at the charity stripe and their downtown shooting is extremely inconsistent. TEXAS A&M is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.PROVIDENCE is 12-3 ATS L/15 versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better with a defense of 42% or better. PROVIDENCE is 23-12 ATS L/35 as an underdog . Play on Providence to cover |
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03-15-18 | Alabama +2 v. Virginia Tech | 86-83 | Win | 100 | 57 h 58 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - PPG Paints Arena - Pittsburgh, PA My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. Alabama Guard Collin Sexton is one of the best one on one players I've seen in a long time, and I feel strongly that his team are sleepers here and under rated. Look for him to be the catalyst behind a cover here for the Crimson tide. Play on Alabama to cover |
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03-15-18 | San Diego State v. Houston -4 | 65-67 | Loss | -103 | 55 h 56 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Intrust Bank Arena - Wichita, KS My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. According to my own power rankings Houston is being vastly under rated by the linesmakers and one of the most under rated sides in the tournament. HOUSTON is 8-2 ATS L/10 versus good defensive teams - allowing shooting pct defense of 42% or less this season. HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season which was the case vs Cincinnati in their conference championship loss ( 56-55). Play on Houston to cover |
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03-15-18 | NC State v. Seton Hall -2 | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Intrust Bank Arena - Wichita, KS My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. NC STATE is 6-15 ATS L/21 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record and is 5-13 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game. CBB favorite (SETON HALL) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a good 3PT defense (32% or less) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 TO or less ) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO) after 15+ games are 95-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Seton Hall to cover |
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03-15-18 | South Dakota State +8 v. Ohio State | 73-81 | Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Taco Bell Arena - Boise, ID South Dakota State is a side that should not be underestimated, as they are very talented and now making their 3rd straight NCAA tourney appearance and on a 11 game win streak . They are lead by Mike Daum (23.8 ppg) the Dominator, a player that is headed for the NBA next season and one of the best players in this entire tournament. Make no mistake that their opponents today Ohio State had a marvelous season, playing well above expectations, but they were just 2-3 SU/ATS down the stretch and being over rated here today against a side that matches up very well against them. S DAKOTA ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots this season No.12 seeds like N.Dakota State are 24-11-1 ATS L/9 seasons when facing a No.5 seed like Ohio State. Play on S.Dakota State to cover |
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03-15-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Miami-FL -1.5 | 64-62 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 1 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - American Airlines Center - Dallas, TX My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. Champions of the Missouri Valley Conference, Loyola (28-5, 15-3 MVC) earned a NCAA berth by defeating Illinois State, 65-49, to capture the MVC Tournament title last Sunday. The Ramblers are one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of 17 of their last 18 tilts, including 10 straight, but facing a team with superior recruiting and talent in a big time event is going to be to over whelming for this group, and I'm betting against them here. HC Larranaga is 32-20 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of MIAMI. Play on Miami Florida to cover |
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03-15-18 | Oklahoma v. Rhode Island -2 | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 48 h 12 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - PPG Paints Arena - Pittsburgh, PA Oklahoma depends way to much on the one man team Trae Young to get things going. Young thanks to Krugers coaching takes control of the offensive end of the court in one on one fashion, , but the team in its entirety has proven inconsistent as is evident by losing 8 of their L/10 overall. Watching the sooners play defense is like watching a pylon parade. Meanwhile Rhode Island is a hard working cohesive group with great chemistry and they get the nod here today in this matchup. OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.OKLAHOMA is 4-13 ATS L/17 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game. OKLAHOMA is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a team with a winning record this season. OKLAHOMA is 10-20 ATS in all games this season.
Play on Rhode Island to cover |
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03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse +2 | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 53 h 54 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Four - Univ. of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH Arizona State was the darlings of the College basketball world earlier this season, but they cooled off considerably during conference play and finished their season losing 5 of their L/6 games, and are playing very inconsistent ball at the moment. Meanwhile, Syracuse despite of an average campaign are a hard working defensive minded program, with pedigree and experience in this NCAA tournament, and must be respected with HC Boheim on the sideleines . With that said, my own power rankings also suggest Syracuse is the side that should be favored and not Arizona State making gets points here in my humble opinion a viable wagering opportunity. Note: The Orange had a non-conference schedule ranked No. 14. Its overall schedule was ranked 18. SU played Virginia, the No. 1 team in the RPI, twice. It played North Carolina (RPI 4) twice, it played Kansas (5), Duke (7) and Clemson (11). ........Kansas (5), St. Bonaventure (24) and Buffalo (25) were all non-conference opponents. Needless to say their ready for whats coming their way today. ARIZONA ST is 2-10 ATS L/12 when playing against a team with a winning record and is 1-7 ATS L/8 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). CBB underdog (SYRACUSE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 62-31 ATS L/12 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Syracuse to cover |
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03-14-18 | Temple +10 v. Penn State | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 35 h 36 m | Show | |
NIT - First Round My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. TEMPLE is 11-3 ATS L/14 in all tournament games. Temple is 8-2 SU L/10 meetings in this series. TEMPLE is 23-12 ATS L/35 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.PENN ST is 31-52 ATS L/83 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). Play on Temple to cover |
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03-14-18 | UT-Rio Grande Valley +3 v. New Orleans | 74-77 | Push | 0 | 35 h 31 m | Show | |
CBI Tournament - First Round My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. |
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03-14-18 | Miami-OH +1 v. Campbell | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 56 m | Show | |
CBI Tournament - First Round My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. MIAMI OHIO is 8-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Play on Miami O to cover |
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03-13-18 | St Bonaventure +3.5 v. UCLA | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 38 h 40 m | Show | |
The very under rated Bonnies had a 13 game losing streak snapped last time out, but got some great news when they were informed of an at-large bid to the Tournament and now will primed to face UCLA in the First Four on Tuesday. To beat UCLA you have to play fast and need quality guard play , something the Bonnies have. St.Bonaventure are lead by All-Conference backcourt seniors Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley, who combine to average 38 points per game and I'm betting they will be the catalysts behind a Bonnies cover vs the Bruins this evening. Bruins are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.Bonnies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Bonnies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Play on St.Bonaventure to cover |
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03-13-18 | Eastern Washington v. Utah Valley -6.5 | 65-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
The Utah Valley Wolverines, have been on the rise in the college basketball world as of late and despite of not being a school you might recognize , it has a quality group of talent on board with 4 returning starters. QUOTE: “This is my most talented roster, so I think we have some higher expectations we’re trying to meet,” HC Pope said. END QUOTE.Last year, the Wolverines, made the final four of the CBI tournament, and upset BYU during the regular season, and than played Duke in Kentucky earlier this season, and are battle tested and more than capable of taking out Eastern Washington here today on their own home floor. Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Play on Utah Valley to cover |
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03-13-18 | Vermont v. Middle Tennessee -6 | 64-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
NIT - First Round The Vermont Catamounts had a great season, but faltered in the conference championship and were surprisingly upset. I really don't think this hoops group is now happy to be here as they expected to be in the NCAA tourney. I know Middle Tennessee is also disappointed, after losing their bid, but from reading different quotes from the Raiders, its become obvious their more motivated. QUOTE: MIDDLE TENN ST is 25-11 ATS L/36 when playing against a team with a winning record.MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or better of their attempts after 15+ games dating back to last season. MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots.VERMONT is 2-10 ATS L/12 in road games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers . CBB underdog (VERMONT) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 or more consecutive losses as a favorite are 69-126 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 63% for bettors on the blind. Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover |
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03-13-18 | Long Island v. Radford -4 | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Four - Univ. of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH The Radford Blackbirds are led by NEC Tournament MVP Joel Hernandez (20.9 ppg) and Raiquan Clark (17.4 ppg). Clark is the team's top rebounder with 7.1 per game, while possessing a 55.7 field goal percentage. Hernandez dishes out 2.6 dimes a game, while shooting 38.0 percent from beyond the arc. I'm betting these two key cogs will be the difference maker in this tilt. |
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03-11-18 | Houston v. Cincinnati -4.5 | 55-56 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
AAC Conference Tournament - Championship Game - Orlando, FL The No. 8 Bearcats face No. 21 Houston on Sunday afternoon in the American Athletic Conference Tournament championship in Orlando, Fla., very focused and ready to avenge their loss in last year's tourney final . Houston is admittedly playing some great hoops at the moment, but as is usually the case in big games like this the superior D, will be the difference maker. Which makes the Bearcats the go to team here. Note: Cincinnati is No.2 in the DFG and ranked in the nation No.8 in rebounding. Cincinnati is 15-2 SU vs Houston L/17 meetings. All 4 championship games in this conference have been won by the fav SU/ATS. CBB An underdog (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, an explosive offensive team (76 PPG or better ) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) are 76-124 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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03-11-18 | Kentucky v. Tennessee | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
SEC Tournament - Championship Game - ST Louis, MO
Kentucky owns a strong pedigree and entered this seasons SEC tournament playing their best basketball of the season and have continued their top tier play throughout this championship tourney. John Calapri's Wildcats teams have been lights out dominant in the Semi final and finals rounds going 32-5 SU while covering 27 of those tilts, and I'm betting they come out on top again and get us the cover as they play this contest with double revenge for two losses they suffered in this series... the last one a 61-59 heart breaker in Rupp. Wildcats are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Southeastern. Kentucky has won 11 straight games in the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats' last lost in the tournament came against Florida in 2014. Play on Kentucky to cover |
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03-11-18 | Davidson v. Rhode Island -2 | 58-57 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rhode Island and Davidson split their two games this season with Rhode Island taking a DD victory at home while, Davidson barley slipped by Rhode Island in a high charged atmosphere at home by a 63-61 count. Watching clips of those tilts it became obvious to me the Rams were the superior hoops program, and if they met again in the A10 conference tourney that Rhode Island would get the automatic nod at -5 or less. My own power rankings makes the Rams 5 point chalk here in a neutral court environment and they are my choice in this spot. Note: . |
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03-10-18 | Toledo +3.5 v. Buffalo | 66-76 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Toledo is the type of team that matches up very well against Buffalo's high powered offense, and I had them pegged for the champions of this conference from the very beginning of the season. The Rockets have played their best basketball down the stretch covering 8 of their L/11 and were 4-1 ATS against top tier sides with a .666 record or better this season. According to my power rankings we have a live dog here that has the capabilities of pulling off a SU upset. Rockets are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games. the underdog has won 7 of the L/8 MAC conference tourneys straight up. Buffalo is 0-3 SU/ATS in this tourney vs a side off back to back SU/ATS wins. Play on Toledo to cover |
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03-10-18 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure +3 | 82-70 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Atlantic Ten Conference Tournament - Semifinals - Washington, DC St.Bonnie enters this game on a 13 game winning streak, which includes a victory vs Davidson 117-113. and have proven themselves a top tier squad that must be respected this season. If they lose to Davidson here today I'm betting they won't go easily and must be respected a dogs in this spot. St.Bonnie has won 7 of its L/10 A10 conference tourney games.Bonnies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. ST BONAVENTURE is 6-0 ATS L/6 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts after 15+ games over the last few seasons. Play on St.Bonaventure to cover |
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03-10-18 | Alabama v. Kentucky -3.5 | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
SEC Tournament - Semifinals - ST Louis, MO Alabama ended their regular season on a 5 game losing streak, and looked downtrodden entering the conference championship tourney. Then suddenly and surprisingly they won their first two games of tournament and find themselves going up against Kentucky side that has won and covered 5 of their L/ games including this tourney and enter todays semi finals matchup as deserving favorites. John Calapri's wildcats teams have been lights out dominant in the Semi final and finals rounds going 31-5 SU while covering 26 of those tilts, and I'm betting they come out on top again and get us the cover. Kentucky has won 6 straight meetings in this series SU, and beat Alabama this season 81-71 and last year in a neutral court environment 79-74 and once again have the edge today as short chalk. Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Play on Kentucky to cover |
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03-09-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech | 66-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Big 12 Conference Tournament - Semifinals - Kansas City, MO Texas Tech, enters this game against West Virginia highly ranked according to my power rankings and also ranks fourth nationally in the KenPom defensive efficiency ratings. This is a team that is currently healthy and playing with a lot of confidence. QUOTE: High, high confidence," star G Evans said after scoring 25 points in a 73-69 victory over Texas on Thursday. "We got everybody back. We're getting healthier by the day. We all know what we can do and what we're capable of." END QUOTE: Both these NCAA tournament locks, will be very motivated here today, but as is usually the case superior Ds, wins big games and this one will be no different. ( They split their two meetings this season, but Evans did not play in the loss) Note: The No.2 Seed ( Texas Tech I) n this Tourney is a perfect 9-0 SU since 2006 in Semi Finals games and 7-0 SU L/7 seven seasons. Play on Texas Tech to cover |
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03-09-18 | Butler +8.5 v. Villanova | 68-87 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
analysis to follow-thank you for your patience. |
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03-09-18 | SMU v. Cincinnati OVER 126.5 | 51-61 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
AAC Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Orlando, FL The linesmkaers are expecting Cincinnati to take out the SMU Mustangs by a DD margin of victory, which translates to the Bearcats putting up 72+ plus points here according to my own projections with the Mustangs reciprocating with 58+ points in a game that I have pegged to go OVER the total. The meetings between the programs this season have seen 127 and 132 points go on the scoreboard. I'm expecting a score of around 130+ here in a neutral court environment giving us an edge for an over wager. SMU HC Jankovich in 23 i neutral court games in his career has seen an a combined average of 130.4 ppg scored. Jankovich in all 33 tournament games he has coached have seen a combined average score of 131.6 ppg scored. HC Cronin of Cincinnati in 203 games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game has seen a combined average of 130.2 ppg go on the board. Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (SMU/CINCINNATI) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, on Fridays are 26-2 OVER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 137.2 ppg. Play OVER |
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03-08-18 | Oregon State v. USC -5 | 48-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Pac 12 Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Las Vegas, NV Oregon State has had a decent season, but are still very over matched vs a talented USC Trojans side. The Beavers have won 5 of their 13 , but four of those wins were home and away victories vs Washington and Washington State. Their systems matchup well against those two programs, but according to my power rankings they do not matchup well vs this kind of talented athletic side. With that said, I'm expecting an easy cover by the Trojans here tonight. Trojans smashed the Beavers by a 72-59 count last time they met Feb 17 and a rinse and repeat situation will not be surprising. Oregon States -Tres Tinkle injured last game, is probable Thursday vs USC ( Ankle ) but likely to be less 100%. No.2 Seeds like USC in this PAC12 tourney are 10-2 ATS L/12 and 10-2 ATS when they are favs of less than 6 points. Trojans are 8-0 ATS L/8 neutral site games. Favorite is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series. Play on USC Trojans to cover |
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03-08-18 | Notre Dame +7 v. Duke | 70-88 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
ACC Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Brooklyn, NY The University of Notre Dame matchup well according to my power rankings against No. 4 seed (and No. 5/4 national rank) Duke on Thursday night .(Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. ) Last season the Blue Devils took out t the Irish 75-69 in last season’s ACC Championship game - a contest the Irish led by three points in the final minutes . Notre Dame is currently in top form and have won 7 of their L/10 with two of those losses coming by 3 points to Miami fl, and to top ranked Virginia by 5 points and they must not be disrespected here as dogs. Note: ACC defending Champs like Duke are 3-14 ATS as a fav in the first round, and Duke is 4-14 ATS in their first round conference tourney game dating back to the 2001 campaign. Notre Dame is 8-2 all-time in the Barclays Center - but the current group of Irish players have a 8-1 record in the home of the Brooklyn Nets. Play on Notre Dame to cover |
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03-08-18 | Boston College v. Clemson OVER 139.5 | 82-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
ACC Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Brooklyn, NY BC has gotten better as this season has progressed because of their ability to punch it out offensively with anyone in this conference behind the talented backcourt duo of Robinson and Bowman and I'm betting this group will force a defensive minded Clemson into responding with some offensive fireworks of their own in this conflict. Yesterday Boston took out NC State by a 91-87 count and scored a 88-77 opening round win vs Georgia Tech . This BC team knows only one way to play and that is fast transitional basketball, and nothing will change here today. When these teams played earlier this season Clemson took a 74-70 win and my own projections estimate a combined score of the 145+ points range to be scored here which makes for a viable over wager. BOSTON COLLEGE is 12-2 OVER L/14 versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games dating back to last season with a combined average score of 160.4 ppg going on the board. BOSTON COLLEGE is 10-2 OVER L/12 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game with a combined average score of 157.3 ppg going on the board.BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-1 OVER L/9 after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average score of 158.9 ppg scored. BOSTON COLLEGE is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts with a combined average of 157.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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03-08-18 | Dayton v. VCU -2 | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
Atlantic Ten Conference Tournament - Second Round - Washington, DC |
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03-07-18 | Fordham v. George Washington -6 | 72-78 | Push | 0 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Atlantic Ten Conference Tournament - First Round - Washington, DC GW enters this game against Fordham having won the last seven meetings in this series a row, and 10 of the last 11, and lead the all-time series 26-6. The Colonials just defeated the Rams in the Smith Center, 72-56, last Wednesday and now they are my pick to get the job done again here today SU/ATS. The Colonials have won their opening game four straight years in the conference tourney. After starting their season very slowly the Colonials averaging just 61.3 points per game in their first eight conference tilts , they than began to get things going and are now performing in top tier fashion offensively as GW is now averaging 74.5 ppg in its last 10 outings and should once again be dominating vs a Fordham side on a 6 game losing streak, and struggling with their offense scoring 60 points or less points in 5 of those 6 trips to the hardwood. FORDHAM is 12-27 ATS in all tournament games since 1997.FORDHAM is 0-6 ATS after allowing 80 points or more .FORDHAM is 7-23 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.FORDHAM is 5-16 ATS as an underdog this season.
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03-07-18 | Louisville +1 v. Florida State | 82-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
ACC Conference Tournament - Second Round - Brooklyn, NY Louisville has won 10 of its last 12 conference tournament games and has a 15-4 record with three championships over its last eight conference tournaments and have top tier pedigree on this sides, and a lot to prove after receiving some disturbing NCAA sanctions recently .Louisville has a 33-11 series advantage over Florida State winning three of the last five matchups while covering 4 of those tilts. It must also be noted that the Cardinals took down the No.23 Noles 73-69 earlier this season breaking a 28-game Seminoles home winning streak as UofL fought back from a 17-point deficit to notch the victory. If they could win there, the Cardinal can beat this team here in a much friendlier environment. Louisville has made 41.8 percent of their threes over the last nine games (84-of-201) and is third in the ACC in three-point percentage for conference games only (.382). I'm betting this will be the catalyst behind what I'm betting will be a cover for the Cardinal in this spot. Florida State has failed to cover 8 straight games. FLORIDA ST is 4-14 ATS L/18 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. FLORIDA ST is 5-14 ATS (L.19 in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games dating back 3 seasons.FLORIDA ST is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more. FLORIDA ST is 1-9 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival. Play on Louisville to cover |
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03-06-18 | Long Island +8 v. Wagner | 71-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Northeast Conference Tournament - Championship Game The No. 1 seeded Wagner men's basketball team takes on No. 4 seed, LIU Brooklyn, in Tuesday's championship game. If Wagner wins, the Seahawks will earn the NEC's automatic bid but I'm betting if they get that big prize tonight, it won't come easily. Tuesday's championship tilt is the rubber match between the Seahawks and Blackbirds as the teams split their two meetings this season, each retaining victories on their respective home courts.In the two previous games between Wagner and LIU the difference of scoring margin was a combined six points as on January 13, LIU earned a last-second 69-67 victory in Brooklyn while the Seahawks grinded out a 78-74 home win on February 17. A rinse and repeat situation looks to be on tonights agenda. With that said, I'm recommending we take the points. LONG ISLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 revenging a same season loss vs opponent and is a perfect 7-0 ATS L/7 revenging a road loss vs opponent. LIU HC Kellogg is 15-3 ATS L/18 in his career as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points . CBB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LONG ISLAND) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more are 79-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Long Island to cover |
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03-05-18 | BYU v. St. Mary's -5 | 85-72 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
West Coast Conference Tournament - Semifinals - Las Vegas, NV
From a power rankings perspective the Gaels according to my numbers should be a 7.5 point fav here, which makes laying around 5 points a value line wager. SMC has won the last five meetings versus BYU. The Gaels defeated the Cougars last year in the semifinals, 81-50 and I won't be surprised by another DD margin of victory again. BYU HC BYU is 2-11 ATS L/13 revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more.BYU is 6-17 ATS L/23 vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making 77% or better of their shots. Play on St.Mary;s Gaels to cover |
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03-04-18 | Towson v. William & Mary +2 | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Colonial Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Charleston, SC Play on William Mary to cover |
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03-04-18 | Cincinnati +3 v. Wichita State | 62-61 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
The 10th ranked Cincinnati Bearcats go head to head with the 11th ranked Wichita State Shockers this Sunday in a battle that I'm betting favors the road side getting points. I know that Wichita took out Cincinnati 76-62 earlier this season, on the road , but I have a great deal of confidence in the Bearcats refocusing and clawing back with some revenge here as visitors, vs a program that has lost 6 of their L/7 home finales vs a .666 or better opposition. Yes, the Shockers are a big nasty group of big young men, but the Bearcats are not easily intimidated behind the nations No.2 FG % and No.7 Rebound margin. Note: Bearcats are a perfect 7-0 SU with revenge on the road vs .850 or better opposition when their hoops program owns a .800 or better record. WICHITA ST is 5-12 ATS after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CINCINNATI) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival are 47-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (CINCINNATI) - off a road blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off a road win are 28-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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03-03-18 | Nevada v. San Diego State -2 | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Nevada is off wrapping Mountain west Conference with a blowout beat down of UNLV last time out, and will now be in a letdown spot and focused on staying healthy for the post season. Tonight against a SD State Aztecs side that plays their best hoops at home ( 12-2 SU) I expect to see a mild upset on a short chalk line, especially considering the Aztecs have revenge on board for a ugly 94-56 smack down the last time these teams played. Note: HC Fisher is 8-2 ATS in his career when seeking same season revenge of a loss of 20 points or more.SAN DIEGO ST is also a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent . SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick.
San Diego State to cover |
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03-03-18 | Arkansas-Little Rock +21 v. UL-Lafayette | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
These two sides have bi polar records , with UL Lafayette with a 24-6 mark and 14-0 SU at home and Arkansas Little Rock with a 6-24 W/L overall record. I know the Trojans may not inspire bettors but despite of their lack of success SU have been very competitive of late, with their L/4 games being decided by 4,5,2 and 4 points. This team also has a lot of road games under their belts this season, and won't be easily intimidated here. Note: Little Rock's 16 road opponents have a combined record of 274-204 (.573) as 11 of the 16 currently own winning records. Arkansas Little Rock plays a hardcore style of physical D, and go hard in the paint, which makes them difficult to play against if your a free flowing side like Cajuns. The Trojans have outscored their opponents 863-726 in points in the paint through 30 games this season, averaging 28.8 points in the key per game and accounting for 45.4% of their offensive production, and I'm betting this will be the catalyst to them getting the cover today vs a superior foe that I'm sure is over looking them. ARK-LITTLE ROCK is 18-7 ATS L/25 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. ARK-LITTLE ROCK is 11-2 ATS after allowing 55 points or less over the last few seasons. CBB Underdogs of 20 or more points (ARK-LITTLE ROCK) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 51-21 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Arkansas Little Rock to cover |
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03-03-18 | Boston College v. Florida State -7.5 | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
Florida State is off two straight road losses, but have played their best basketball at home this season, winning 12 of 14 games outscoring opposition sies by 14.4 ppg . The Noles desperately need to get back into the win column here this afternoon vs Boston College in their home finale. With this game also being a revenger for the Seminoles , I'm expecting we see them very motivated and in top form here. ( BC beat FSU 81-75 earlier this season) Florida States HC is 16-2 ATS in home finales when seeking revenge. FSU is also 6-1 ATS L/7 home finales and have covered 4 of the L/5 meetings here. Hamilton is 8-1 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses of 10 or more as the coach of FLORIDA ST with the combined average margin of victory coming by more than 11.4 ppg. Play on Florida State to cover |
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03-03-18 | Kentucky v. Florida OVER 143 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Kentucky and Florida enter this game both playing top tier hoops at the moment. I'm expecting like the linesmkaers for this to be a closely contested 2 possession game that will see both teams according to my own projections putting 72+ points on the board, which gives me justification in call for an over wager here in this spot. Note: Florida has averaged 76.4 ppg at home this season, and Kentucky has averaged 73.3 ppg away. The total combined score according to my projections and systems analysis could easily eclipse this number by 5 points , making this a viable over wager. FLORIDA is 11-2 OVER L/13 in home games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season with a combined average of 148.7 ppg going on the board.KENTUCKY is 11-1 OVER after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games with a combined average score of 168.7 ppg going on the board. KENTUCKY is 6-0 OVER in road games off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals with a combined average of 163.5 ppg going on the board. KENTUCKY is 6-0 OVER after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games this season with a combine average score of 168.2 ppg scored.
Play OVER |
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03-02-18 | Youngstown State v. Cleveland State UNDER 152 | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Horizon Conference Tournament - First Round - Detroit, MI These teams just took part in a back and forth game on Feb 24 that saw Cleveland State grab a 99-94 victory. However, now in the rematch I expect a more tempered approach by both sides, and a reversion to the norm from a offensive output standpoint. Tourney play tends to be more tactical, and physically grueling which should aid this score to stay on the low side of the number. CLEVELAND ST is 12-2 UNDER off a win against a conference rival with a combined average of 128.8 ppg scored and is 6-0 UNDER off an upset win as a road underdog with a combined average of 129.3 ppg going on the board.CLEVELAND ST is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 80 points or more dating back to last season with the combined average score of 132.3 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (CLEVELAND ST) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a struggling/losing team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 27-4 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the total combined score of those tilts clicking in at 126.7 ppg. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (YOUNGSTOWN ST) - in a conference tournament game, a struggling/losing team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 36-12 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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03-02-18 | Chattanooga v. Samford UNDER 154 | 89-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Southern Conference Tournament - First Round - Asheville, NC In both meetings this season, the total combined score did not exceed this posted number. UT Chatanooga 78 Samford 71 - Samford 73 Chatanooga 56. My own projections expect both sides to not exceed the 75 point offensive plateau, which makes for a viable under wager according to these estimates. UT-CHATTANOOGA is 14-3 UNDER L/17 in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game with a combined average of 145.8 ppg scored.UT-CHATTANOOGA is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last few seasons with a combined average score of 143.4 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (SAMFORD) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games, on Friday nights are 27-6 UNDER L/21 seasons for 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 128.4 pgg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (SAMFORD) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, a struggling team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 32-9 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 146.4 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (UT-CHATTANOOGA) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two struggling teams (20% to 40%) are 38-12 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 132.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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03-02-18 | Eastern Michigan +5 v. Toledo | 71-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is a hoops program I have been keeping a close on eye on as this season has progressed, as this team looks to have a lot of chemistry and talent, which has translated into them up trending in my power rankings behind five straight wins , and 7 victories in their L/8 trips to the hardwood . The Eagles clinched a first round bye in the Mid-American Conference Tournament with its 16-point road win at Western Michigan last time out and must be respected in their current form.The Eagles have put up 78.2 points per contest on 52.1 field goal percentage in their L/4 games and come in here ready to send a message to Toledo before the conference Tourney starts. In Eastern's L/8 games their already staunch defense has gotten even better as the Eagles are allowing just 61.5 points per game and holding opponents to a 38.6 shooting percentage from the floor during that stretch, while forcing110 turnovers, had 43 steals, and smacked down 23 shots , which makes them very dangerous pups in their current incarnation. |
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03-02-18 | Bradley v. Drake +1.5 | 63-61 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - ST Louis, MO Drake has won both meetings this season home and away and matchup very well vs Bradley from a system vs system analysis projection that I use exclusively for tournament action. Note: Bradley G Darrel Brown is expected to play today, but according to court side news from multiple sources is far from being 100%. BRADLEY is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points which happened in a 78-68 road loss at Drake in their last meeting on Feb 3 of this season. DRAKE is 21-11 ATS L/33 when playing against a team with a winning record . CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BRADLEY) - off a home loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 26-55 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate for bettors. CBB Neutral court teams as an underdog (DRAKE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, on Friday nights are 53-20 ATS L/21 seasons for a 72 % conversion rate for bettors. Play on Drake to cover |
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03-02-18 | Northern Iowa v. Loyola-Chicago -5.5 | 50-54 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - ST Louis, MO Loyola enters the 2018 Missouri Valley Conference Championship tourney on a seven-game winning streak and are currently in top form. The Ramblers go against a N.Iowa side that they have prevailed against in five of the last six matchups between the programs.This year, Loyola swept the season series, marking the second time in the last three years it has taken both contests from UNI and once again look like a team that we want to back here. N IOWA is 3-10 ATS as an underdog this season losing SU by an average of 7.3 ppg. N IOWA is 8-23 ATS L/30 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game and 4-15 ATS L/19 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game .LOYOLA-IL is 10-1 ATS l/11 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game. CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOYOLA-IL) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 PPG or less) are 50-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Loyola Chicago to cover |
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03-01-18 | Marist v. Fairfield UNDER 154 | 57-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Metro Atlantic Conference Tournament - First Round - Albany, NY Marist road games have seen a combined average of 151.7 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Fairfield has seen a combined average of 152.6 ppg scored. My own projections estimate that in this neutral court environment, that the combined score will be closer to 149, which gives us a two possession advantage to the under in what will be a tighter more grueling post season affair than their last regular season matchup that saw Fairfield beat Marist 83-79. FAIRFIELD in their L/25 games as a favorite over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 146.8 ppg scored.FAIRFIELD is 9-1 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last few seasons with a combined average of 136.7 ppg scored. HC of Fairfield Johnson is 18-5 UNDER L/23 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals with a combined average score of 131 ppg going on the board. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (FAIRFIELD) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better ) are 46-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (MARIST) - after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 32-9 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 132.8 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (MARIST) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 45% or better on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 60% or higher are 53-19 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the combine average score of 136.9 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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03-01-18 | South Florida +13.5 v. Memphis | 75-51 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Memphis enters this game on a 4 game win streak, but took part in some grueling affairs vs quality opponents in those tilts, ie ( SMU, Tulane , Houston UConn) and despite of having momentum on their sides, they could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown spot vs a lowly USF hoops program I'm sure their over looking. With that said, I'm recommending we close our eyes, plug our noses and pull the proverbial trigger with extreme prejudice vs a Tigers side that will be playing without star point guard Jeremiah Martin, who was ruled out for the season with a broken foot. Martin's 18.9 points per game are currently tops in the conference. Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The road team is 11-4 ATS L/15 meetings. South Florida has covered their two most recent trips to Memphis. MEMPHIS is 3-11 ATS L/14 after scoring 80 points or more dating back to last season.S FLORIDA is 12-3 ATS L/15 in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread. S FLORIDA is 48-30 ATS L/78 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (MEMPHIS) - an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a struggling team (8 PPG or worse differential), after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 9-32 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. CBB oad team (S FLORIDA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 109-56 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. Play on USF to cover |
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03-01-18 | Virginia v. Louisville +4 | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
This is Louisville's last home game of the season, on senior night, and will be primed and motivated for a win as they go against the No.1 ranked team in the country and the ACC the Virginia Cavaliers. Louisville has won 15 of its last 16 Senior Day games, including last year's 71-64 victory over No. 19 Notre Dame It must also be noted that Louisville has a 42-11 SU record in its conference home games over the last six years (.792) and must not be underestimated as dogs vs a top tier side. The Cardinal also looked good last time out on the road, beating a pretty good Virginia Tech hoops program by a 75-68 count, and has been cruising in to high gear offensively of late , as they have converted on 43.5 percent of their threes over the last eight games (73-of-168) and leads the ACC in three-point percentage for conference games only (.387). UofL is also 14-2 when it makes eight or more three-pointers in a game. Add to that the D, is also playing consistently as is evident by holding eight of its 16 ACC opponents to 40 percent or below shooting from the field and you have a pup here that I feel good about backing. UofL fell 74-64 at Virginia last month, but in that game the Cards despite of the DD loss were viable opponents vs the Cavs as Louisville shot 50 percent from the field , the only team that has achieved that this season against Virginia. With that said, My own projections estimate that Louisville will be able to put 61 + points on the scoreboard here tonight which is key, as VIRGINIA is just 6-15 ATS when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game over the last few seasons ( Virginia 63.9 Opposition 63.4) Play on Louisville to cover |
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02-28-18 | Texas A&M v. Georgia -1 | 61-60 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Georgia prepares to play its last regular-season home game on Wednesday night when the Bulldogs host Texas A&M on "Senior Night" at Stegeman Coliseum. The Bulldogs continue to build momentum and bolster their postseason résumé. Georgia has won three of its last four games, including victories over projected NCAA Tournament participants Florida and No. 18 Tennessee. Georgia also looked to be in top form via a 93-82 win over LSU last Saturday. . .Georgia was No. 70 in Monday's NCAA RPI but has secured more quality victories than most of the teams ahead of the Bulldogs.UGA has 8 combined "Q1" & "Q2" wins, more than 37 teams ahead of UGA in the RPI. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is off a revenge game vs Vanderbilt last time out winning 89-81 and could easily be in a letdown spot here vs an up trending side. Previous to the Aggies win they had lost 3 straight, and still don't look to be operating with the same proficiency they did earlier this season. Note: Texas A&M has only won 2 of 10 road games this season and are fade material here according to my own projections. TEXAS A&M is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7 versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game.TEXAS A&M is 2-11 ATS L/13 after scoring 85 points or more. GEORGIA is 14-4 ATS L/18 in home games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game. GEORGIA is 10-2 ATS L/12 after 4 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more. CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS A&M) - excellent team - shooting 45% or better with a defense of 42% or less on the season against opponent after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent vs 37-71 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia to cover |
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02-28-18 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Tennessee Tech UNDER 150 | 51-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament - First Round - Evansville, IN When Tennessee Tech and SIU Edwardsville met earlier this season, they took part in a grueling physical game that Tennessee Tech Tech won 68-67, and I'm betting on a similar style game this time around and a combined score that is also similar , which makes this a viable under wager according to my own projections. TENNESSEE TECH is 9-0 UNDER L/9 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season with a combined average of 133.8 ppg scored.TENNESSEE TECH is 10-1 UNDER L/11 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game of 134.3 ppg scored.TENNESSEE TECH is 6-0 UNDER L/6 versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game this season with a combined average of 145.3 ppg scored. TENNESSEE TECH is 8-0 UNDER when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season of 135.9 ppg going on the board. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (SIU EDWARDSVL) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 24-6 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TENNESSEE TECH) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better) are 46-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-28-18 | Ole Miss +11 v. Kentucky | 78-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Ole Miss had had a overall disappointing season, but must not be underestimated here vs their hosts Kentucky, as they have notched six wins versus RPI top 100 teams, including three against the top 50 this season. Tonight against a good but still over rated Wildcats hoops program, they look like solid investment options getting points. Keys to a Ole Miss cover here a DD dogs will come I'm betting via these key attributes: Ole Miss has taken care of the basketball this season. The Rebels have coughed up the rock only 331 times, ranking 39th nationally in fewest turnovers allowed. Averaging only 11.4 turnovers per tilt, Ole Miss ranks 42nd in the nation and owns a solid 1.3 assist/turnover ratio which ranks fourth in the SEC and 60th in the country.The Rebels also lead the SEC in rebounding in conference games, pulling down 38.2 boards per game. - Ole Miss also paces the conference with 13.1 offensive rebounds per SEC contest. Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.( the Wildcats clobbered Missouri last time out 87-66) KENTUCKY is 9-18 ATS L/27 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games dating back to last season.OLE MISS is 20-7 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points and 17-5 ATS L/22 as a road underdog of 10 or more points. CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (OLE MISS) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 121-65 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Ole Miss to cover |
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02-28-18 | LSU v. South Carolina OVER 142.5 | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
It is no secret that LSU struggles with grind it out teams like South Carolina. Last time out the Bayou Bengals allowed 90+ points to Georgia to a team that struggles to score 60 points most nights. Tonight against a South Carolina I'm betting the home side scores above its season average of 71.2 ppg, vs a Tigers side that has allowed an average 78.8 ppg on the road, and for LSU to hit in the 75point range ( LSU averages 77.7 ppg overall in off) . Those projections suggest a Total that will be eclipsed. LSU HC Wade is 9-1 OVER in road games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots in all games with a combined score of 145.9 ppg scored.LSU is 8-1 OVER L/9 in road games after allowing 90 points or more with a combined average of 159.2 ppg scored. LSU is 14-5 OVER as a road underdog or pick with a combined average of 158 ppg scored. LSU is 8-0 OVER L/8 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games dating back to last season with a combined average of 165.4 ppg scored. S CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER L/6 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season with a combined average score of 149.7 ppg scored. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (LSU) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after a combined score of 155 points or more are 131-71 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (S CAROLINA) - after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more are 97-59 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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02-27-18 | Miami-FL +10.5 v. North Carolina | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
North Carolina may not have their full attention focused on this tilt with the Canes here this evening, as their season finale vs Duke is up next, with the No.2 seed on the line. Meanwhile, Miami after losing key Guard Bruce Brown took some time to get rolling again, but I've kept an eye on them, and they are looking like a viable up trending side that cannot be ignored as DD underdogs in this spot.Walker and Lykes have stepped up as Miami's leading scorers. Walker has averaged 13.3 points per game in the last eight contests, while Lykes has totaled 13.1 points per game over that period It must also be noted that Miami Fl has revenge on board for a ACC tourney loss to North Carolina from last season, and will be ramped up for payback vs a side that has covered just 3 of their L/19 vs an avenging foe with a 60% or better record before facing the Blue Devils. Since HC Jim Larrañaga took over at UM, the Canes are 5-5 SU against UNC, including a pair of upset wins in Chapel Hill. The teams split a pair of games last year, with Miami prevailing, 77-62, in Coral Gables, and UNC winning 78-53 in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. The Hurricanes have won five of the last eight meetings in this series. MIAMI is 30-13 ATS L/43 as an underdog of 10 or more points.MIAMI is 26-13 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points Play on Miami Fl to cover |
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02-27-18 | Ball State v. Central Michigan OVER 147.5 | 51-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
BSU has won the past three meetings vs Central Michigan, including an 82-76 victory earlier this year in Muncie, all three combined scores easily eclipsed this Totals number, and I'm expecting another fairly high scoring tilt here today. Central Michigan is averaging just under 80 ppg at home this season, while BSU has averaged 76.6 ppg overall, and have picked up their offensive attack of late with 87,90,99, 77, 80 point outputs in their L/5 respectively. Everything points to this total getting eclipsed. Central Michigan is off 89-76 loss vs Toledo last time out, which sets us up well for an OVER wager to cash, as C MICHIGAN is 11-1 OVER L/12 off a road loss against a conference rival dating back to last season, with a combined average score of 176.1 ppg scored.C MICHIGAN is 6-0 OVER as a home underdog or pick over the last few seasons with a combined average score of 180.5 ppg going on the board.C MICHIGAN is 7-1 OVER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots with a combined average score of 157.6 ppg scored. C MICHIGAN is 17-3 OVER versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games dating back to last season with a combined average score of 176.6 ppg registered on the scoreboard. C MICHIGAN is 6-0 OVER L/6 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) with a combined average score of 163.3 ppg scored. BALL ST is 22-9 OVER L/31 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season of 156.7 ppg scored. BALL ST is 6-0 OVER vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making 77% or better of their shots ( Note: The Chippewas lead the league in free throw shooting at 80 percent ) CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BALL ST) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 75 points or more 4 straight games are 29-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a79% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (C MICHIGAN) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 71-39 OVER L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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02-27-18 | Akron +15.5 v. Buffalo | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Buffalo has had a good season, from a SU perspective but the lines-makers are continually over estimating them, as is evident by them having failed to cover 8 of their L/9 games overall. With Akron entering this game with revenge for a ugly 87-65 set back at home back on Jan 9 of this season, I expect they come out on a mission and are subsequently a lot more competitive this time around , and make it 3 straight covers here as visitors. Note: Buffalo scored 108 points against Ohio on Saturday afternoon, its most ever in a MAC game and despite of this being Seniors night and an opportunity to capture the No.1 seed in the conference tourney, the Bulls should experience a natural let down and a reversal to their mean average output . Akron last time out 64-62 to Miami O, but Since the start of the 2004-05 season, the Zips have been one of best teams in the nation when it comes to rebounding after a loss. Excluding season-ending losses, Akron is 99-42 (.702) following a loss.The Zips have posted a 48-27 mark (.640) in the last 75 games against the MAC East dating back to the start of the 2012 league schedule. BUFFALO is 1-7 ATS L/8 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game. BUFFALO is 2-14 ATS L/16 after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games. BUFFALO is 1-7 ATS after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite this season. Play on Akron to cover |
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02-26-18 | USC Upstate v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 163 | 76-96 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals
My own projections estimate that the Total posted by the lines-makers is slightly bloated here, considering this is a tournament game, and should be played a little differently than regular season action. I expect UC Upstate to try to slow down their explosive opponents with gritty physical hoops, and for FGCU a top tier defense to comply in unison. Yes, Gulf State can light the board up in a hurry, and USC Upstate owns a porous D, but as was the case in their two previous meetings this season, the scoreboard was not short circuiting, as both total combined scores failed to eclipse this posted number. On Jan 11 Fl Gulf State won 75-58 at home and on Feb10 won 88-71 on the road. Note: FGCU held six ASUN opponents to 60 points or less during the regular season. In the other 42 league games played, there were only five total occurrences of a team being held to 60 or less. FGCU's 68.4 points per game allowed in league play was more than five points better than any other team (Jacksonville, 73.6). FLA GULF COAST is 6-0 UNDER L/6 in home lined games with a total combined score of 136.3 ppg scored. FLA GULF COAST is 12-3 UNDER L/15 in home games against conference opponents with a combined average score of 138.3 ppg scored. FLA GULF COAST is 13-3 UNDER L/16 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season with a combined average of 145.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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02-25-18 | Penn State v. Nebraska -1 | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
The Nebraska men's basketball team looks for its 22nd win of the season on Sunday afternoon, as the Huskers host Penn State on Senior Day.The Huskers enter the final weekend of the regular season winning nine of their last 11 games and seven of its last eight .The Huskers are currently in a strong position to earn one of the four double-byes for the Big Ten Tournament next week at Madison Square Garden so you can imagine the energy that they will bring to the court tonight in a packed house supporting them. I know Penn State will also be hyped up as they fight for its postseason life, as the Nittany Lions look to bounce back from a 73-64 loss to Michigan, but this type of environment is not a good opportunity for them to get things rolling in the right direction. Add to that its payback time , as Penn State took a 76-74 OT win over the Huskers on Jan. 12 which will give the Huskers added inspiration. Penn State is 0-7 ATS L/7 as road dogs vs opposition with a .800 record or less opposition. Nebraska is 17-2 ATS L/19 overall. NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS L/11 when playing against a team with a winning record .NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.NEBRASKA is 12-0 ATS L/12 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game . Tonight I'm betting the catalyst to a Nebraska victory will come behind a defense that has buoyed them this season . The Huskers are third in field goal defense (.412) in conference play and have held 12 of their last 15 opponents under 45 percent shooting. Nebraska also leads the Big Ten in 3-point defense in conference play, holding opponents to 30 percent shooting from the land of the trey. Note: Nebraska is 15-1 SU at Pinnacle Bank Arena this season with the only loss coming in a one-point loss against a strong Kansas program back on Dec. 16. Overall it must be noted that this team forte also lies with the fact that they have a never say doe attitude as is evident by looking at Nebraska's six losses dating back to Dec. 9, NU lost twice in the last 30 seconds (vs. Kansas, at PSU) and three others where NU was within a point in the last four minutes (at Creighton, at No. 13 OSU, at Illinois). Nebraska is 6-1 in Lincoln all-time against the Nittany Lions and have won and covered 5 straight at home in this series. Play on Nebraska to cover |
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02-25-18 | Colorado State +17 v. Nevada | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
CSU has had a down season thanks in part to having to reignite their lineup after losing two of last year's five starters, including Mountain West Player of the Year Gian Clavel and First Team All-MW forward Emmanuel Ombogo. Meanwhile, Nevada looks like a big dance candidate, and are being made big chalk here in a contest that will see two sides playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. With that said, and despite of the W/L discrepancies the Rams behind interim HC Jase Herl are still capable of covering this slightly bloated number as road dogs according to matchup system vs system analysis . Note: Colorado State in their first meeting in this series went back and forth with Nevada but came out on the short end of a 76-67 loss, Feb. 3 and get the nod to cover in this spot. NEVADA is 2-10 ATS L/12 as a home favorite of 15.5 to 18 points . COLORADO ST is 20-9 ATS L/29 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game . CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (COLORADO ST) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 111-58 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colorado State to cover |
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02-24-18 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +13 | 71-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
San José State suffered a 36-point, 85-49, loss to San Diego State earlier this season on January 9 inside Viejas Arena and now have revenge on board. The Aztecs came out flying in that tilt, vs a team that upset hem last season. Despite of San Jose States dismal record they have played much better ball of late from a ATS perspective cashing 5 of their L/7 for their backers. Last year the Spartans upset the Aztecs 76-71 here at home, and I'm betting they will be competitive in this spot again. SAN JOSE ST is 11-2 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season and 6-0 ATS at home using the same total perimeters. SAN DIEGO ST is 3-13 ATS L/16 after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite. Update: SD State - F Malik Pope is OUT Saturday vs San Jose State ( Suspension )- averages 26 min a game - and 12.7 ppg . CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN JOSE ST) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games are 38-13 ATS L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Jose State to cover |
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02-24-18 | Auburn v. Florida -2 | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Florida has lost three straight in Southeastern Conference play, all in closely contested affairs, as well as six of the last eight, and on the brink of playing itself out of the NCAA Tournament picture . Those three losses came by a combined 11 points, and the three opponents converted at 80.3 percent. With that said , I'm betting they come into this tilt in desperation mode, which I'm betting we will see this Gators hoops group at their best vs a Auburn program they have beaten 11 straight times here at home dating back to 1997 and 23 of the L/26 times home and away. Meanwhile, Bruce Pearls hoops kids, are off a revenge win vs Alabama last time out, and could easily be in a letdown situation here against a hyped up group. Florida is 10-5 at home this season, while 3 of Auburns 4 losses this season have come on the road, and I'm betting on a 4th loss in this spot. FLORIDA is 34-14 ATS L/48 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. CBB underdog (AUBURN) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, an explosive offensive team (76 or more PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) are 72-116 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Florida to cover |
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02-24-18 | Santa Clara +19.5 v. St. Mary's | 40-67 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
The Broncos are value line dogs here, and have been playing some good hoops of late, despite of having their three-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with a home loss to Loyola Marymount on Senior Night losing by 1 point 65-64..Over the last four games, Santa Clara is shooting 49.0 percent from the floor making them dangerous DD dogs in their current form . Meanwhile, The No. 22/20 Gaels are set as the No. 2 seed in next week's WCC Tournament and have very little left to play for other than staying healthy. ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games when playing against a lower tier team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%).ST MARYS-CA is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games on Saturday games.ST MARYS-CA is 2-10 ATS L/12 when playing with one or less days rest this season. St.Marys is 15-1 SU at home this season but have only covered four times. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (ST MARYS-CA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 15-50 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Santa Clara to cover |
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02-24-18 | Louisiana-Monroe +6 v. Troy State | 67-73 | Push | 0 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
LA Monroe enters this game having won and covered 5 straight and 7 of their L/8 and are not an easy out for any team in their current top tier form. Meanwhile, their hosts Troy State have lost 2 straight, and despite of being 9-4 at home this season are just .500 vs the spread. LA Monroe is very confident at the moment, and have a recent history of playing Troy very tough covering the L/4 meetings in this series including a win and cover in their L/visit here and get the nod again. LA-MONROE is 8-2 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. LA-MONROE is 6-0 ATS L/6 versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season.TROY is 3-12 ATS L/15 in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game .TROY is 3-12 ATS L/15 in home games after a game where they covered the spread which happened last time out. CBB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA-MONROE) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, playing with one or less days rest 53-22 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on LA Monroe to cover |
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02-24-18 | Kansas +2 v. Texas Tech | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
This version of Kansas may not be on the same level of Villanova or Virginia , but believe me when I say this is still a top tier team with plenty of pedigree which is backed by the experience of one of the best coaches in basketball Bill Self. Today in revenge mode for their worst loss in the Bill Self's tenure at this school in home games ( 85-73), I expect payback to be at the forefront of this battle vs Texas Tech. Note: Kansas has never been swept in a same season series by any Big 12 conference opponent, while the Red Raiders are just 2-14 ATS as chalk vs a side with revenge from a 10 point or more loss . KANSAS is 20-9 ATS L/29 in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game . KANSAS is 11-3 ATS L/14 in road games versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better with a defense of 42% or better. CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival are 44-18 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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02-24-18 | James Madison +2.5 v. Delaware | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
The Cardinals visit Blacksburg, Va. to face the Virginia Tech Hokies . My power rankings suggest these teams are evenly matched and is indicating value with taking James Madison in this spot. In their first meeting this season Delaware won 61-60 and in their final matchup last year another 1 point deficit saw Delaware win 58-57. I will not be surprised at all if this is also a one possession tilt, favoring the road dog to cover. JAMES MADISON is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JAMES MADISON) - good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games are 70-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on James Madison to cover |
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02-24-18 | Villanova -7.5 v. Creighton | 83-89 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Villanova enters this road game vs Creighton after having defeated and annihilating DePaul 93-62 on Wednesday evening in full big dance dress rehearsal mode. With that said, I expect the Wildcats will be ready to crush another hoops program. I know Virginia is ranked No.1 in the national polls, but according to my own power rankings systems Villanova is numero uno, and viable single digit road favs against almost any team in the country including Creightoin. VILLANOVA is 8-1 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game this season.CREIGHTON is 4-12 ATS L/16 versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots. VILLANOVA is 15-4 ATS /19 after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent.CREIGHTON is 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season with the average margin SU loss coming by 13 ppg. The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS L/9 as road chalk with 3 or more days rest vs sides like the Blue Jays off back to back su/ats wins vs opposition with revenge. Villanova is 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series. CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (VILLANOVA) - in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams (20/game or more ), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 55-23 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Villanova to cover |
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02-24-18 | Baylor v. TCU OVER 147 | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
My own projections for this game suggest both teams will score at least 75 points each here today. BAYLOR is 9-0 OVER in games where both teams score 75 or more points over the last few seasons with a combined average of 174.5 ppg scored. .TCU is 11-1 OVER in games where both teams score 75 or more points this season with a combined average of 169.5 ppg going on the board. Both these teams play contrasting styles of basketball. TCU is a run and gun group, while Baylor likes to slow things down. But from a matchup perspective, Baylor is going to have to pick up their pace on offense if they want to keep up here in an environment where the home team should be able to make the speed of this tilt more to their liking. With that said, I'm expecting a total combined score that eclipses this number. TCU is 16-5 OVER L/21 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 163.3 ppg scored.TCU is 7-1 OVER L/8 when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.TCU is 6-0 OVER in home games against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 163.9 ppg. Dixon is 12-1 OVER after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers as the coach of TCU with a combined average of 159.9 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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02-23-18 | Ohio State v. Indiana +2 | 80-78 | Push | 0 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Ohio State has had a tremendous campiagn, and are the surprise team of the Big 10, but Archie Miller's Indiana has expentionally shown imporvement as this season has progressed and must not be underestimated here as home dogs. Note: HC Miller is 5-0 ATS as a home dog in conference action.In the last 5 games, IU is shooting 51.9% from the field and 43.2% from beyond the arc, while holding opponents to 38.4% shooting from the field and 29.9% from the land of the trey. |
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02-22-18 | Pepperdine +20 v. St. Mary's | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
St.Mary;s thanks to their great record and superiority over most teams in this conference are been made huge favs on a consistent basis, but a lot of times the line is slightly bloated and offer value for advantage players. I know Pepperdine has had a down season, and are banged up , but they are more than capable of covering here tonight, behind Colbey Ross who has set the Waves freshman record for assists in a season. The top tier freshman in the WCC in both scoring (14.5, seventh overall) and assists (5.6, second overall, 35th nationally)is coming off a 21-point effort at Gonzaga. ST MARYS-CA is 2-9 ATS L/11 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points over the last 2 seasons. ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS l/6 in home games off a road win by 10 points or more and is 1-8 ATS l/9 in home games after playing a road game ( The Gaels beat Portland last time out 73-61) Home favorites of 10 or more points (ST MARYS-CA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 15-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pepperdine to cover |
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02-22-18 | UCLA v. Utah -3.5 | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
UCLA enters this tilt vs their hosts Utah having won two straight and six of its last seven games dating back to Jan. 25. While recording a 14-2 home record, the Bruins are just 2-5 SU overall in road games this season (2-4 in Pac-12 road games) and despite of their current level of play are fade material vs this type of quality opponent on the road. Add to that Utah currently on a 4 game win streak got clobbered and embarrassed by the Bruins 83-64 six weeks ago and you have a very motivated side to back in this spot. UCLA is 6-15 ATS L/21 in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games . Alford is 1-9 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season as the coach of UCLA.
CBB A road team (UCLA) - after scoring 75 points or more 4 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 26-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-22-18 | Charlotte +19 v. Western Kentucky | 55-93 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Charlotte has had a down season, and are currently on a 12 game losing skid, but they have been competitive lately, and during this ugly run have only once lost by more than 19 points. Earlier this season, WKU defeated Charlotte, 73-63, in Halton Arena, (January 13), and my projections estimate a 14 point win here for Western Kentucky in the rematch, which gives us very good value with the underdog in this spot. CHARLOTTE is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games over the last few seasons. CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - off a home loss against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 88-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Charlotte to cover |
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02-22-18 | Rice +6 v. Florida Atlantic | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
These two struggling College Hoops programs are sides that actually matchup fairly evenly despite of the home sides superior record. Make no mistake Rice is a team with very few positives attached to them, but from a systems stand point and according to my cross reference rankings are capable pups vs this type of opponent. My own projections have made Florida Atlantic 4 point chalk here, thus giving us underdog value on the line . FAU won the previous meeting this year on Jan. 27, 63-62, at Tudor Fieldhouse in a hard fought affair, and a rinse and repeat situation is not out of the question tonight. Rice has won its last two visits to Boca Raton. FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS L/14 versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season. FLA ATLANTIC is 1-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games dating back to last season. RICE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games in February games dating back to last season. CBB Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (FLA ATLANTIC) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 28-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors. CBB An underdog (RICE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a struggling team( 20% or less ) playing a team with a losing record are 45-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rice to cover |
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02-22-18 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. Northwestern | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Wisconsin has had a down season behind a very inexperienced young group, but according to my matchup analysis are solid competition for what my power rankings suggest is an over rated Northwestern program.Wisconsin has won 15 of the last 20 SU against the Wildcats overall, but NU won an earlier match-up this season, 60-52, at the Kohl Center and now with revenge on board for the Badgers. I,m betting we will get a motivated effort from them here vs a Chris Collins team that is just 5-10 ATS L/15 at home vs avenging Big 10 opposition . Note: The Badgers have won 5 of their last 6 trips to Evanston. . Note: Over the last two games, Wisconsin held Purdue (-29.5) and Minnesota (-13.5) to an average of 21.5 points below their season scoring averages. Winners of three of the last four, Wisconsin is my choice here tonight. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (WISCONSIN) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home win by 10 points or more are 161-106 ATS L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Wisconsin to cover |
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02-21-18 | San Jose State +22 v. Nevada | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
San José State travels to Reno this Wednesday to face the Mountain West leading No.24-Nevada Wolf Pack. The last time these teams played the Wolfpack took out the Spartans by a 71-54 count. However, San José State played one of its best halves of the season allowing the Wolf Pack to 26.7 percent shooting and took a 26-24 lead into halftime, before succumbing in the 2nd half vs an extremely experienced and talented side. However, now with a blueprint in hand on how to compete with the Pack I'm betting San Jose State will be very prepared for the rematch. It must also be noted that despite of the DD loss, in that above mentioned game that it was just two-possession game with under five minutes to play in the second half. With that said, lets take the points. NEVADA is 7-19 ATS /26 versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 8+ points/game .SAN JOSE ST is 8-2 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
Play on the San Jose State Spartans to cover |
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02-21-18 | Alabama v. Auburn -7.5 | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Bruce Pearl has assembled a pretty darn good group here at Auburn, and despite of some round about accusations about how he has done it , the fact still remains that this a up trending hoops program that must be respected . Here tonight in a big time rivalry , I expect the Auburn to be ready to bring down the hammer, vs a side that upset them earlier this season, by a 76-71 count, and that is in a let down scenario after a hard fought 81-71 loss to Kentucky this past weekend. Note: Auburn is a perfect 7-0 ATS vs teams off a loss this season. I know the Tigers also lost last time out, 84-75 to South Carolina in a surprising upset, but in the Tigers only other three losses this season, they came back and rebounded in their next game in explosive fashion cashing all three times, with a double-digit victories. Tigers are shooting 48 percent and averaging 89.1 points per game at home this season. They have won 12 of their 14 home games by double digits. Rinse and repeat here tonight. Auburn is 13-4 ATS l/17 at home in this series and have won and covered the two most recent games here at home. Pearl is 21-10 ATS as a home favorite or pick as the coach of AUBURN. AUBURN is 16-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and have covered 8 of their L/10 vs above .500 squads.AUBURN is 12-1 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more this season.AUBURN is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Play on Auburn to cover |
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02-21-18 | Fordham +17 v. Davidson | 52-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
According to my own projections this line is slightly bloated thus giving us value with the underdog Fordham. Recently Fordham has shown some life, and despite of a overall dismal record are 3-3 in their L/6 games, upsetting Umass, Duquesne and George Mason. Look for a rejuvenated Fordham team that got clobbered by Davidson back on Jan 14 at home to come out here looking to get some respect and be much more competitive . Note: Fordham leads the league, and is sixth in the nation, in steals with 243 (9.3/game) and can be a pesky side to play against , especially for free flowing sides like Davidson. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (FORDHAM) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 102-52 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (FORDHAM) - a terrible offensive team (63 or less PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after allowing 80 points or more are 90-43 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Fordham to cover |
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02-21-18 | Georgia Tech +17.5 v. Virginia | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Virginia the No.1 ranked team in the nation, has some pretty big spreads attached to their favorite status , which in turn offers up the occasional line value on their underdog opponents. Tonight that's exactly the situation.The Cavaliers have clinched a double-bye in the ACC Tournament and will be out just looking to stay healthy as we get loser to tournament time, thus giving us value with a program that has cashed 14 of their L/20 as road underdogs in this series. Note: Fourteen of Georgia Tech's contests this season have been decided by 10 points or less, including six ACC games, and they were not decided until the final few minutes. Tech has played nine games decided by five points or fewer or in overtime, most for any ACC team other than Florida State (10). GEORGIA TECH is 21-10 ATS L/31 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last few seasons. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (VIRGINIA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 15-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors, CBB Road underdogs of 20 or more points (GEORGIA TECH) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 45-16 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia Tech to cover |
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02-21-18 | Duquesne +12 v. St Bonaventure | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Duquesne goes to Olean, N.Y. to battle St. Bonaventure this Wednesday night. St.Bonnie might be susceptible to a letdown situation here after a big time 77-74 win over #16 (AP) Rhode Island this past Friday. SBU barely got by Duquesne in their first meeting 84-81 win and I'm betting covering won't come easily this time around either. ST BONAVENTURE is 20-35 ATS L/55 as a home favorite of 10 or more points. ST BONAVENTURE is 0-6 ATS L/6 after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread. Duquesne has cover 12 of their L/18 visits here and 2-0 ATS in their to most recent trips to Olean. Six of the past nine overall meetings in this series have been decided by four or fewer points. CBB Road underdogs of 10 or more points (DUQUESNE) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals are 38-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Duquesne to cover |
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02-20-18 | Northern Illinois +10 v. Ball State | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
Despite of N.Illinois experiencing a down season, they are being underestimated here according to my own player to player matchup systems analysis and we have value taking the dog on this line. NIU I'm betting will ride the momentum from its 75-67 upset victory over Western Michigan this past Saturday and keep the flow going here today against a team they have circled for payback for two losses they suffered to Ball State last season. It must be noted NIU is 5-0 ATS as DD dogs here as visitors and 6-1 ATS with revenge. Meanwhile, Ball State is in a emotional letdown situation after a huge battle that they won vs Toledo on the weekend, and could easily be flat here tonight against a team that I'm sure they are over looking. BALL ST is 12-29 ATS as a favorite over the last few seasons. BALL ST is 2-11 ATS after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. CBB road team (N ILLINOIS) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 34-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Northern Illinois to cover |
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02-20-18 | Creighton +5.5 v. Butler | 70-93 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Creighton is 19-8 this year (8-6 BIG EAST) in has played a hard core nine games against ranked opponents. Six of the Jays losses were vs teams that were ranked at the time (No. 22 Baylor, No. 15 Gonzaga, No. 23 Seton Hall, No. 10 Xavier, No. 1 Villanova, No. 5 Xavier), despite of those setbacks the Bluejays are also one of 27 teams nationally with three wins over top-25 teams and must not be underestimated as dogs against any opponent, especially against Butler program that they matchup well against.( blue Jays are 4-1 SU/5 meetings and have covered 7 of the L/9 overall in this series) Creighton has won the last three games by scores of 75-64, 76-67 and 85-74.Creighton has shown the ability to slow down Butlers top offensive threat in the recent past, Kelan Martin (20.7 ppg. this year) , as the star forward has not shot well at all while going head to head by reigning BIG EAST Defensive Player of the Year Khyri Thomas. This I'm betting will be the key to a Creighton cover tonight. Note: I know Creighton lost last time out to Marquette, but that's a good omen for us here , as Creighton is 7-0 this season in the game immediately after a loss, outscoring their opposition 87.9 - 63.6 and outrebounding the opposition 40.1 - 32.9.McDermott is 17-6 ATS L/23 off a home loss as the coach of CREIGHTON. Creighton is averaging 85.4 points per game this season (sixth nationally), shooting 50.2 percent from the floor (10th nationally), and 37.9 percent from three-point range. CU also owns a 1.63 assist/turnover ratio (fourth nationally) to date, and a +1.9 rebound margin.Creighton's 14 games this season making 80 percent or better at the line ranks tied for fifth nationally, and tied with Butler for first among all major conference teams and gives them a must needed edge here on the road. CREIGHTON is 8-1 ATS L/9 on Tuesday nights over the last couple of seasons.CREIGHTON is 12-4 ATS L/16 after allowing 80 points or more .CREIGHTON is 21-8 ATS L/30 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread. BUTLER is 0-7 ATS l/7 versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 84+ points/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. Play on Creighton to cover |
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02-20-18 | Rhode Island -7 v. La Salle | 95-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Rhode Island ranks very high in power rankings polls so I have no problem what so ever recommending we lay the lumber here with them here on the road vs what is currently a far inferior hoops program LaSalle. Rhody has won two straight and seven of the last eight meetings, including an 74-62 victory on Jan. and has won four straight in this series at Gola Arena. Despite a loss at St. Bonaventure two games back, Rhode Island has remained firmly in both national polls for a fifth straight week, ranking No. 18 in both the Associated Press and College Basketball Coaches Poll. With this game coming late in the season, Rhode Island seeking a NCAA tourney bid will not over look their opponents tonight and instead come out here looking to make a statement. LASALLE is 0-6 ATS L/6 after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. RHODE ISLAND is 10-3 ATS L/13 when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.LASALLE is 1-11 ATS L/12 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game and is 2-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. CBB home team (LASALLE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 47-81 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rhode Island to cover |
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02-20-18 | Toledo +1.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 79-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm betting on Toledo to bounce back from Saturday's 99-71 defeat at Ball State when it travels to Ypsilanti, Mich to play Eagles.It was the Rockets only second loss in 13 games. Toledo swept the Eagles in last seasons series with 73-57 victory in the Glass City and a 60-56 win in Ypsilanti. Meanwhile, E.Mich is off a road win vs Central Michigan and have won 4 of their L/5 , and despite of a winning overall record are just 2-2 in their L/4 home games and I'm betting the 3rd loss in their L/5 is on the horizon. From a matchup perspective the Rockets D, has allowed opponents to shoot 45.2 % on the road and E.Michigan has shot, 48.2 at home. My won projections, suggest that E. Mich should make between 40% to 46% of their shots here tonight, which is a good omen, considering the Rockets are 8-0 ATS in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. It seems that Toledo thrives against teams like this when pushed into a shootout scenario where both teams are projected to score 70 points or more , which the linesmakers are expecting . Look for Tre'Shaun Fletcher who ranks second in scoring at 19.7 ppg, and Jaelan Sanford who is seventh at 16.9 ppg to be the catalysts behind a Toledo victory. |
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02-20-18 | NC-Greensboro v. Wofford OVER 136.5 | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Wofford averages 82.1 ppg at home this season on offense, while Greensboro averages 72.4 ppg on the road.Note: UNCG overall is averaging 74.0 points per game while shooting 44.8 percent (737-of-1646) from the field and 36.3 percent (273-of-752) from 3-point land and according to my projections should be on pace for a similar offensive output. Greensboro plays the better defensive ball, but I'm betting their dragged into a faster affair than they like by a revenge minded Wofford team that plays their best basketball at home, which I'm betting results in a higher scoring game than the lines-makers anticipate. Wofford’s only loss at home in conference play came at the hands of ETSU by a 75-62 margin.In their L/meeting on Dec 30 of this season, Greensboro on their own home court dictated the pace and came away with a 71-67 win, but here on the road Wofford will up the speed of this game , which is more to their liking which will result in this tilt eclipsing the number. These teams have gone over the Total in 9 straight meetings here at Wofford. UNC-GREENSBORO is 8-1 OVER L/9 in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts after 15+ games dating back to last season, with a combined average of 156.8 ppg scored. UNC-GREENSBORO is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts after 15+ games over the last couple of seasons with a combined average score of 154.8 ppg clicking in on the board.WOFFORD is 6-0 OVER L/6 in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last few seasons with a combined average of 151.2 ppg scored. WOFFORD is 12-2 OVER L/14 in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 158.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. WOFFORD is 10-1 OVER L/11 revenging a same season loss vs opponent with a combined average of 162.6 ppg getting scored. WOFFORD is 15-3 OVER L/18 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games of 157.9 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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02-19-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin OVER 140 | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Minnesota enters this game struggling on defense, allowing 94,76,91,80,87 points respectively in their L/5 strips to the hardwood for an average of 85.6 ppg. The Gophers have struggled a bit of late on offense against some top tier competition, but their overall ability to put points up on the board (76.5ppg),has been their saving grace this season, and made them competitive for the most part in Big 10 play and according to my projections should score in the 65-69 point range here in this spot. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has done their best offensive work at home this season, averaging 72 ppg, and I'm betting on them upping their average offensive output here by 5 to 8 points vs a pylon D. With that said, according to my own prognostication system, this total should be easily eclipsed. Minnesota in 15 conference games this season, has seen a combined average score of 148.4 ppg go on the board. MINNESOTA is 8-0 OVER L/8 versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season with a combined average of 151.2 ppg going on the board. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game are 40-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82%conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 152.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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02-18-18 | Stanford -5 v. California | 77-73 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
The Stanford Cardinal enter this game against California looking for a revenge for a 77-74 upset home loss to the Bears as 7 point chalk back Dec 30. The Cardinal looked asleep at the proverbial wheel in that tilt, but will be wide awake in this spot and ready to lay down some payback. The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS L/10 with revenge in this series, and look like a viable side to back vs a Bears side that has failed to cover 7 of 9 as home dogs this season and that has lost 11 of their L/12 overall SU. |
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02-18-18 | Duke v. Clemson +2 | 66-57 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
The Clemson Tigers are 12-0 SU at home this season, and own a No.4 ranking in the RPI and matchup very well against Coach K and company a a program that is No.10 in the same RPI rankings . Also my own numbers suggest the superior team is the Tigers and they get the nod here vs a Duke Blue Devils hoops program that have not faired all that well here at Clemson, covering just 7 of their L/19 visits.
Play on Clemson to cover |
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02-17-18 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -7 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Mississippi State has revenge on board for a 64-58 loss in Oxford earlier this season. Both the lines-makers and myself agree that Miss State should be hefty favs here in the rematch, which translates well into what I am predicting will be a lopsided win ....as the Bulldogs are 19-3 ATS as home favs in straight up revenge victories. The Bulldogs are also 20-4 SU L/24 at home in this series and have a big edge vs a Rebs side that has nothing to play for after suffering 6 straight losses. With said I'm recommending we back the very motivated home team. QUOTE: "They have excellent guards. It's a rivalry game, so everything goes out the window. Nothing that's happened before this game matters. It's all about this game." — MSU coach Ben Howland on Ole Miss. The Bulldogs have held nine of its 13 SEC foes below their scoring average and 21 of 26 overall.Mississippi State leads the SEC and is 45th nationally in points allowed at 66.8. MSU is also 26th in the nation in field goal defense at 40.6 percent. MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-6 ATS L/22 revenging a road loss vs opponent. OLE MISS is 0-7 ATS L/7 after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.OLE MISS is 0-6 ATS L/6 after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. OLE MISS is 2-11 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. MISSISSIPPI ST is 7-0 ATS L/7 when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last few seasons. MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-3 ATS L/17 when playing against a team with a losing record . Play on Miss State to cover |
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02-17-18 | North Carolina v. Louisville -1 | 93-76 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
After a six-day break, Louisville now very well rested will return home to the KFC Yum! Center as the Cardinals face the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday.Louisville has held eight of its 13 ACC opponents to 40 percent or below shooting from the field and I'm betting their ability to hold down opponents behind a staunch D will be the catalyst for a victory for them here tonight vs the Tar Heels. N CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. N CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS L/11 in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. LOUISVILLE is 9-1 ATS L/10 after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less .LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games after scoring 85 points or more. CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 45-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Louisville to cover |
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02-17-18 | Texas Tech v. Baylor +1 | 57-59 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
Baylor is currently playing their best hoops of the season, winning and cashing 4 straight and will be primed to pull off an upset vs a strong Texas Tech program. The key to Baylor’s success of late has come from the bench as they have out-scored the opposing bench 153-49 over the last 5 games. Note: BU is averaging 80.2 ppg over its last 6 Big 12 games after averaging 66.0 ppg in its first 7 Big 12 games. Baylor has been tied or leading in the final 2 minutes in 4 of its Big 12 losses, all vs. ranked teams and must be respected here on their own home floor . BU is 10-2 L/12 vs Tech at home in Waco . Baylor is 54-11 against in-state opponents since the start of the 2011-12 season We are also backing a Bears team that have revenge for a ugly loss vs the Raiders earlier this season by a 77-53 count. Note: Baylor has cashed 3 straight SU/ATS with revenge winning each time by DD and are 14-3 ATS L/17 with revenge in this series. Meanwhile Texas Tech has only covered 3 of their L/13 vs teams with revenge that they blasted by 20 or more points. Play on Baylor to cover |
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02-17-18 | Villanova v. Xavier UNDER 165.5 | 95-79 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Villanova easily dispatched Xavier in the first meeting this season, an 89-65 smash down at the Wells Fargo Center back on Jan. 10 and now I'm expecting a slower pace from Xavier as they try to mess with Novas flow. Meanwhile, Villanova in a mini slump after having lost 2 of their L/3 , will be concentrating on playing a complete game . The coaching staff wants the Cats to be more physical, which I'm betting they will be today and this will translate into a grinding war, that makes for a lower scoring game then the lines-makers expect. After Nova lost to Providence last time out, Villanovas Coach made this statement "We weren't physical enough to get open," Wright said. "So then we couldn't run the offense. We were forced to drive the ball and they were more physical than us in that area also." END QUOTE: With this game being so late in the season, and with playing solid D, a very important factor at this time of the season, I expect a total combined score that remains on the low side of the number. |
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02-17-18 | Auburn -6 v. South Carolina | 75-84 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm not always a big fan of playing road chalk, but some situations warrant a wager, and this is one of them. Auburn 23-3 on the season are showing they mean business, and with a big dance ticket on their agendas, and the finish line in sight , I doubt they will overlook any opponent. Especially a South Carolina Gamecocks team that steam rolled them by a 98-69 beat-down here last season in merciless fashion. Missouri was a strong team last season, but this campaign has seen them slip and are very susceptible to being pummelled in a payback scenario by the explosive visitors. It must be noted that S.Carolina is just 4-32-1 ATS in home losses as dogs. S CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season. AUBURN is 15-4 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.AUBURN is 11-2 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and 6-0 ATS L/6 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season. AUBURN is 9-0 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.AUBURN is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season. Play on Auburn to cover |
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02-17-18 | Indiana v. Iowa +2 | 84-82 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Indiana enters Saturday's contest winners of three straight, while Iowa has lost four in a row. The Hawkeyes have, however, not lost five consecutive games this season and I'm betting that stays intact here today. .Iowa has won eight of the last 11 meetings in Iowa City, including last season's 96-90 overtime barn burner. The Hoosiers are also just 2-7 in true road games this season \nd not the same team they are as hosts. The Hawkeyes did lose to Indiana earlier this season on road, but will be primed to pull the upset here with revenge on board. Iowa is 15-4 ATS L/19 in this series, and 5-0-1 ATS L/6 with revenge. The Hawkeyes are also 18-7 ATS L/25 as home dogs, and get the nod here to cover. Play on Iowa to cover |
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02-17-18 | Syracuse +5 v. Miami-FL | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
Miami enters this game as weak home favs as they are just 1-5 ATS as hosts in conference play so far this season. The Canes are also still playing without key cog G Bruce Brown their second leading scorer and currently do not demand the respect they usually get when at full strength. Last season the Cuse were bumped from the ACC tourney by Miami Fl, and now with revenge at hand I'm betting we see the Orange at their very best as they also are looking for a possible big dance birth. MIAMI is 4-13 ATS L/19 as a home favorite or pick. MIAMI is 1-8 ATS L/9 in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. MIAMI is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games . Play on the Syracuse Orange to cover |
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