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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-28-19 | Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 65-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #667 Thursday 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - They were ahead by 17 points with under 3:10 to play. They were ahead by 8 points with under 1:20 to play. They were ahead by 6 points with under 45 seconds to play. They were ahead by 4 points with under 35 seconds to play. They ended up losing the game by a single point. Of course I am talking about the Monarchs first match-up with the Roadrunners which also took place at UTSA and was played in late January. That makes this a major revenge spot for Old Dominion as that game was truly one of the most insane finishes of the entire college basketball season and the Monarchs were on the wrong end of it. Because this game is again at San Antonio we're getting line value here as we don't even have to lay any points to have Old Dominion with big-time revenge on their side. Why are they again meeting in San Antonio? It is because Conference USA made a decision to go to a bonus play-in system this season which then sets the seeding for the upcoming conference tourney. There are 3 groups of seeds and Old Dominion and UTSA are in the group that is seeded 1 through 5. That means Monarchs and Roadrunners can each finish as high as #1 or as low as #5 in the seeding for the upcoming tourney. Old Dominion already won their first game Saturday. For UTSA, this is their first game of the play-in schedule. Not only do the Monarchs badly want revenge here, they also are going for the #1 seed in the tourney. Old Dominion has proven themselves as the top team in CUSA this season and they will show that on the floor in San Antonio tonight. The Monarchs have won 11 of their last 12 games and the lone loss was the ridiculous 1-point defeat at UTSA. The Roardrunners are just 5-5 their last 10 games and that includes that miracle win over Old Dominion. I am well aware of the fact that UTSA is on a 10-game winning streak on their home floor. But that is all the more incentive for the better team in this match-up as they get payback in a major way tonight. Also, the Roadrunners will be very rusty here as they have not played since the 16th - a span of nearly two weeks! 10* OLD DOMINION |
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02-27-19 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 226.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets are healthy and in rhythm again. Even so, their last 3 games have remained under the total. That is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. This one opened up at a 228 yesterday and has dropped to as low as a 226.5 as of early this morning. Houston has scored an average of 118 points per game in its last 7 road games. Charlotte is off an under versus Golden State but the Hornets entered the Warriors game having gone 6-2 to the over in their 8 prior games. Charlotte has averaged 118 points per game in it last 5 home games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the mid-230s! The Hornets lost by double digits to the defending champs on Monday and they are 9-4 to the over this season when off a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Each of the Hornets last 3 games have totaled at least 231 points. 3 of Houston's last 4 games have totaled at least 230 points. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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02-27-19 | Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (-) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 7 ET - This is a great value situation because everyone is a little down on the Vols right now while the Rebels have been getting a little extra attention thanks to some recent winning. Here is the key with those Ole Miss wins however. The Rebels have won 5 of their last 6 games but 2 of the wins came against Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-13 in SEC action! The most impressive win would be over Auburn (7-7 in SEC) but the other two of the five wins came against A & M (5-10) and Missouri (3-12). In other words, Ole Miss has been helped by their schedule of late. As for the Volunteers, they have faced a tough schedule and the blowout loss at Kentucky recently is still fresh in the minds of the betting public. Also, Tennessee is off a very tight OT loss at LSU in their most recent games. So while it is true that the Vols have lost 2 of their last 3 games it is also true that those defeats came against a pair of teams that are EACH 13-2 in SEC action! Prior to the SU and ATS loss at LSU, Tennessee had been a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 or more games. They get back on track in a big way here against an Ole Miss team that is over-valued right now. The Rebels have been a hot ATS team this season but they are on a long-term 8-14 ATS run in February games and the fade is on here! The Volunteers have won and covered 3 straight against Mississippi and get the job done again here in a road rout. 10* TENNESSEE |
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02-26-19 | Magic v. Knicks OVER 216 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are building confidence and that lends itself to a high-scoring game versus the Magic here. New York is off a big win over the Spurs Sunday. The Knicks have now won 2 of their last 3 games and also, New York has gone over the total in 2 of its last 3 home games. The Magic show strong defense to the marketplace as their field goal percentage allowed has been low in recent games. However, Orlando is off a huge upset win at Toronto on Sunday. In other words, this is a flat spot for the Magic as they go from facing the best team in the east to now facing the worst team in the east. Also, the pace for high-scoring games has certainly been there of late for Orlando. In the last 11 Magic games, the average field goal attempts for their opponents has been 92. Also, remember the upset win over the Raptors I just mentioned? The over is 13-3 this season when Orlando is off an outright upset as an underdog! Also, when the Magic are off a win by a double digit margin this season, the over has gone 10-4. As for the Knicks, the over is 2-0 the last two times they've been an underdog to Orlando. I look for another high scoring one here as the Knicks are installed as a sizable home dog here and bring another huge effort. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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02-26-19 | Toledo +1 v. Ball State | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (+) @ Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - The Rockets have only lost 2 home games all season. Why am I mentioning home games when they are on the road here? I mention it because one of the two home losses Toledo had was to the best team in the MAC, Buffalo. However, the other home floor defeat was at the hands of these Cardinals. In other words, it is payback time. Actually that payback has been a long time coming too! Ball State has beaten the Rockets five straight times. Some will look at this line and say it is easy just to take the Cardinals on their home floor to get the win. As you know, nothing is ever that easy and I love the value here we're getting with revenge-minded Toledo. Keep in mind, Ball State has been struggling for an extended stretch. The Cardinals have lost 9 of their last 13 games SU and 10 of their last 13 ATS. Ball State has been held under 40% from the field in 3 straight games and has shot 19% from 3-point land in their last 3 games as well. In other words, the Cardinals are slumping badly. The Rockets are offering significant value here because they are on an 0-3 ATS run at the betting window and that has the betting markets holding a negative opinion of them at the moment. Keep in mind this is a Toledo team that has already surpassed the 20 win mark this season. Additionally, since early January back to back losses to Ball State and Buffalo, the Rockets have won 9 of their past 12 games! Toledo is 4-2 SU and ATS in their last 6 road games. When off a SU win versus a conference foe this season, the Rockets have gone 6-2 SU and ATS. The Cardinals are 2-8 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 or less points. That includes Ball State going 0-3 ATS and SU this season in this situation. More of the same here. 10* TOLEDO |
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02-25-19 | Warriors v. Hornets OVER 233.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #565 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - The Warriors are fired up off a loss in which they scored 112 points. That point total may not seem that bad but, keep in mind, Golden State entered that game having averaged 125 points per game their 4 prior home games. Now the Warriors are on the road and ready to run and gun their way to their typical success. I expect the result to be a solid over here at Charlotte. The Hornets have gone over the total in their last 3 games. Also, in home games, Charlotte is on a 4-0 run to the over and has averaged 119.5 points per game in those 4 contests as a host. The Hornets are 5-2 to the over this season against Pacific Division opponents and I look for Charlotte to improve to 8-4 to the over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Keep in mind, like the Warriors, the Hornets are off an outright loss as a favorite in their Saturday game. As for Golden State, the over is 13-5 when they are facing a team with a losing record this season. Also, the Warriors are 5-1 to the over this season against Southeast Division opponents and 15-8 to the over in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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02-25-19 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -12.5 | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #862 Monday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7 ET - I successfully played against the Noles on Saturday with North Carolina and the Tar Heels delivered the beating I expected. Now it is the Seminoles turn, however, to be on the right side of a thrashing. To many bettors this line will look to big but Florida State should win this game by 20. Certainly FSU is fired up and they have but one loss on their home floor this season while Notre Dame has managed only 2 road wins this season. You can see who is very likely to win this game but, now, what about the all-important cover? As long-time followers know I rarely lay big points. When I do it has to be a situation where my team is not going to take their foot off the gas. That is the case here. Florida State didn't just lose on Saturday, they got embarrassed. Back home now with a quick turnaround chance to redeem themselves and with the eyes of the College Basketball World on them, the Seminoles are going to put on a show in this one! They are highly talented, so much moreso than the Irish, and had won 8 in a row SU (7-1 ATS) prior to the loss to UNC. As for Notre Dame, they are on a 3-11 SU run and 4-11 ATS run. 3 of their last 6 losses have come by 15 points or more. The Seminoles last 3 wins all came by 13 points or more. The average margin of those victories was 19 points. This line was as high as 13.5 and has dropped to a 12.5 in early market activity. I like the value here in a game I expect FSU to win by 20. The Fighting Irish are 3-9 ATS last 12 times they were off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less. The Seminoles are a long-term 9-4 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. 10* FLORIDA STATE |
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02-24-19 | Spurs -8.5 v. Knicks | Top | 118-130 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Sunday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are the worst team in the NBA. Yes, this is a significant number of points to lay on the road, especially with a team that has been struggling ATS. However, the Spurs did play quite well at Toronto Friday and that is why they got the cover and very nearly got the outright win. Keep in mind that was with LaMarcus Aldridge scoring only 6 points and certainly he was not himself in that game. Aldridge has been upgraded to probable for this game. Considering he is highly likely to play much better and considering the Spurs are hungry for a win and facing an awful Knicks team, you can see why I am expecting a road win by a double digit margin in this one. The Spurs are on an 18-9 ATS run in Sunday games including 4-2 ATS this season. San Antonio is on an 18-8 ATS run against Atlantic Division foes including 5-1 ATS this season. Even though the Knicks are off a double digit loss and would love to bounce back here, note that New York is 9-19 ATS this season when they are off a game which they lost by a margin of 10 points or more. Note also that this will be New York's 29th home game this season. So far the Knicks have only 9 ATS covers this season on their home floor! The Spurs are hungry and they know they need this game tonight as tomorrow's game at Brooklyn is a much tougher match-up than this one. Coach Gregg Popovich has the troops ready for this one. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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02-24-19 | Villanova v. Xavier OVER 136 | Top | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #827 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Xavier Musketeers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 1:30 ET - Great value with this low total in my opinion. Each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 154 points and the posted total on this one has gone from a 137.5 to a 136 as of early game day morning. I like the fact that Villanova is off back to back losses (and has lost 3 of their last 4 games) and is very hungry for a strong performance. The Wildcats won't take their foot off the gas in this game even if they end up getting a double digit lead. Based on the current line (Nova -6), you can see that is a distinct possibility. As for Xavier, they aren't exactly known for their defense. The Musketeers are allowing 71.6 points per game this season. Also, Xavier has allowed an average of 90 points per game in their last 3 games against the Wildcats. That might have you wondering if one of those games went to OT. No, none of the 3 games were OT games. Musketeers simply won't be able to stop the fired up Wildcats here but I do look for Xavier to score very well. The Musketeers are averaging 75.5 points per game at home this season and the Wildcats defense has not been as strong this season. Villanova is allowing an average of 74 points per game in their last 6 road games! The over is 7-3 this season in Wildcats road games. Also, when off a loss in conference action, Villanova is 6-3 to the over their last 9 games. Xavier is 4-1 to the over this season when off a win in conference action and they come into this game with some added confidence thanks to a 3-game winning streak. Also, the Musketeers are 9-4 to the over their last 13 games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Xavier |
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02-23-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 233 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #549 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:35 ET - We're getting line value here with the total dropping from 237.5 yesterday afternoon to 233 this morning. Part of the reason for the line move is the James Harden injury situation. Should he not play here I still am fully comfortable with this play. However, I really would be surprised if the does not go. Facing the Warriors in a huge game and coming off a loss Thursday - so a day of rest in between - look for Harden to go here. For the next two weeks after this game the Rockets will be facing Eastern Conference teams. Truly this is Houston's last big game for awhile. Not only are they facing the World Champs, it is the same team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. This is a double revenge spot however for the Warriors as Houston has gotten the best of them in each of the first two meetings this season. The last meeting went over the total and, though it did go to overtime, keep in mind the teams did have 238 at the end of regulation. Look for another wild one Saturday night on ABC. Also, the over is 8-3 this season in Rockets games against Pacific Division opponents. I look for the Warriors over to improve to 11-6 this season when they are playing a game with revenge. After losing both regular season match-ups this season, the Warriors are NOT going to take their foot off the gas here no matter what the score is. So take advantage of the drop on this total and look for a high-scoring shootout! 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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02-23-19 | Delaware v. Drexel -3 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
PA Insider GOW - Rickenbach CBB Game #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (-) vs Delaware Blue Hens @ 5 ET - One of the Blue Hens best players is guard Kevin Anderson. Keep in mind he was a Rookie of the Year for the Colonial Athletic Association. Anderson, a sophomore, has missed the past two games with a knee injury. He is listed as questionable here but even if Anderson does play how effective would he be? Keep in mind he has a history of knee problems as he missed all but 11 games of his rookie season because of a knee injury. Delaware certainly wants to be careful with him and his absence or ineffectiveness really hurts the Blue Hens. They have been without him the past two games and they had to go to double OT to beat a bad Towson team and then they followed that up by losing to James Madison. The Blue Hens beat the Dragons earlier this season at Delaware but only by a single point and Anderson had 16 points in that one point win. Without Anderson, or with him limited, the Blue Hens certainly could be in trouble with the rematch being at Drexel. The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in this series. Granted there have been some tight wins in that run but the Dragons are favored by just 3 points here. That certainly bears mentioning as 9 of Delaware's 12 losses this season have come by 6 or more points this season. As for Drexel wins, only 1 of the 12 has come by a margin of less than 4 points. Look for the Blue Hens to drop to 2-7 ATS this season in Saturday games. The Dragons are 8-1 SU and ATS as a favorite this season! 10* DREXEL |
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02-23-19 | Indiana State v. Missouri State OVER 130 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #631 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Missouri State Bears vs Indiana State Sycamores @ 2 ET - This total opened up in the 135 range and has dropped to the 130 range. When these teams met last month the posted total was 148. This is the type of major adjustment I look for. Of course the Bears have been trending under all season long but the odds makers factored that into their opening number (135) already. Now the betting markets have forced the total to adjust another 5 points. This is how you get extra value in a situation like this because the numbers don't bear out that this game will finish below 130. The Sycamores are off a RARE gem on defense where they allowed just 50 points but that game was at home. In their last 4 road games, Indiana State has allowed an average of 80.5 points per game! Missouri State is off an embarrassing 63-43 home loss. That's right, the Bears scored just 43 points in their most recent game and it was at home. Prior to that Missouri State had scored at least 65 points in each of their 4 prior games. So here you have a situation where the road team is off one of their best defensive performances (rare) of the season and the home team is off one of their worst offensive performances (rare) of the season. The result here is tremendous line value. The first meeting this season stayed under the total but prior to that these teams had gone over in 5 straight meetings. Also, the over is 5-1 the last 6 times the Bears were the host in this series. 10* OVER the total in Missouri State |
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02-22-19 | Nuggets v. Mavs OVER 218.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #527 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets @ 8:35 ET - The Nuggets are a solid 16-8 to the over in their last 24 games. This total opened up at a 220 and has dropped to a 218.5 as of early this morning. We're getting good value here considering that the last two meetings between these teams in Dallas went over the total. Also, in their only meeting so far this season (at Denver) the teams combined for 244 points (and had 143 at the half). Don't be surprised if another shootout erupts tonight as I also like overs when it is the weaker team that is at home. In this case that is the Mavericks of course and, as you would expect, they shoot better when at home. As for Denver, they are one of the top teams in the league and score quite well most nights on anybody anywhere! The over is 10-4 in the Nuggets last 14 games against teams that are allowing an average of 106 or more on the season. The over is 20-10 in Denver's last 30 February games. All signs point to the over improving to 3-0 in the Mavs last 3 games. 10* OVER the total in Dallas |
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02-22-19 | Columbia v. Pennsylvania -7.5 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Friday 10* Top Play Penn Quakers (-) vs Columbia Lions @ 8 ET - The Quakers are still in the hunt for finishing in the top 4 of the Ivy League and qualifying for their post-season tourney. The Lions are the worst team in the conference by far. With Penn also entering this game off a tough OT loss to Harvard last week, the set up is perfect here for a home blowout win. Admittedly the Quakers have underachieved in Ivy League action thus far but they entered last weekend having had just one home game in league action thus far. Penn's schedule has been tough to say the least. They nearly pulled off the much-needed 2-0 sweep last weekend but back to back OT games (they beat Dartmouth in OT Friday) proved to be too much as you would expect. The Crimson are a tough team to face in a spot like that. Penn was 6-2 at home prior to losing to Harvard and now will take advantage of a facing a Columbia team that is just 1-8 in road games this season. I am well aware of the fact that the points seem high here but we've now seen this line drop from a 9 to a 7.5 and we're being offered great value here as the Quakers are ready for the much needed big blowout win that can keep their season alive. Keep in mind, Penn gets Cornell (5-3 in league action) tomorrow! I am well aware of the fact that both these teams are known for playing in tight games but I am calling for a win by double digits here as the Lions have shot poorly in back to back games and those were both at home! As for the Quakers, they had shot very well in 3 of their 4 games prior to the tough back to back OT situation. The hot shooting resumes tonight for the home team. 10* PENN |
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02-21-19 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - The fact that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid for this one is keeping this line to a very manageable number considering Philly is on their home floor and the Heat have been struggling. The 76ers, even without Embiid, are still the much more talented team here. Philadelphia has Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, and JJ Redick. Additionally, the Sixers new reserve big man Boban Marjanovic will step up with Embiid being out. Philly is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've hosted Miami. Of course the Heat have revenge here as they were ousted from the playoffs by the Sixers last spring but, keep in mind, they had that revenge on their mind earlier this season too when they hosted the 76ers and yet they still lost by double digits at Miami! The Heat enter this game having lost 6 of their past 8 games. The Sixers are off a win and have won 14 of 21 in the New Year. Philly did lose their most recent home game but had won 9 of 12 prior on their home floor. 8 of the 76ers last 9 wins have come by 7 or more points and I see every reason to expect another win by at least that margin tonight! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-21-19 | Michigan v. Minnesota OVER 131.5 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7 ET - The Wolverines are known for defense. However, Michigan also has been known for having some sub-par performances on the road. That said, the Golden Gophers offensive production also has been much better when at home. Combining those factors we've got great value here with a low total posted on this game. The first meeting between these teams this season stayed well under the total but both teams had horrible shooting nights. Prior to that game however, the over was 3-0 in the 3 prior meetings and those games averaged 157 points. Now, consider this as well. The total in the first game between these teams was posted at 137. Now, because of the low-scoring result in that match-up, we're seeing totals as low as 131.5 for this game as of early this morning. This is more than 5 points less than the first match-up even though the fact that this game is at Minnesota means it should be higher scoring. Keep in mind, the over is 8-4 the last 12 times the Golden Gophers have hosted the Wolverines. Also, Michigan has allowed 71.3 points per game in their last 3 road games. As for Minnesota, they've had one ugly recent performance at home versus Wisconsin. However, other than that, the Golden Gophers have averaged 80.3 points per game in their last 6 home games! Minnesota is a much more confident team when at home and their shooting stats show that. Also, the over is 10-5 in Golden Gophers home games this season. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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02-20-19 | Massachusetts v. George Washington OVER 136 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Massachusetts Minutemen vs George Washington Colonials @ 7 ET - This is a type of late-season match-up that I look for when looking for games that should turn into a shootout. Here you have two teams both have disappointing seasons, with a history of high-scoring games when they meet, both shooting the ball well of late, and both struggling on the defensive end of late. Seriously, who is really to going to play intense defense here? There is just no high motivation for defense in this match-up and the 'kicker' for me was confirming that UMass guard Luwane Pipkins (hamstring) did upgraded from questionable to probable. I do expect him to be good to go here. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and all 5 games totaled at least 150 points. The Minutemen have shot over 40% from three point land in their last 3 games combined. However, Massachusetts has allowed 80 points or more in 2 of their last 3 games and they have allowed red hot hot shooting for their opponents in each of their last 3 games (despite the Davidson game being an ugly score, the shooting was there). As for George Washington, they've shot 40% or better from three point land in 3 straight games and all 3 went over the total. The Colonials, however, have allowed 82.3 points per game in their last 3 games as they surrendered hot shooting over this 3-game stretch. The over is 15-8 when UMass is off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. Also, February games for the Minutemen are on a 15-3 run to the over. The over is 9-3 this season in George Washington games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, the Colonials are 10-2 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Ideal set-up here for a shootout. 10* OVER the total in George Washington |
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02-19-19 | Maryland v. Iowa OVER 147 | Top | 66-65 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Big Ten Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #625 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa Hawkeyes vs Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The earliest total that first popped up on this game was a 151.5 and now, as of early game day morning, the total has dropped to as low as a 147 in some books. I am happy to grab the extra value here. The over is 2-1 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and the lone under did total 150 points. In other words, at the current number posted on this game, the over would be a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings. Look for the over to improve to 7-4 the last 11 times that Maryland has been on the road with a line ranging from a pick'em to a +3. The Terrapins have not had an over since mid-January - a stretch of NINE straight games. Their highest posted O/U in their last 5 games has been a 138. So the odds makers were fools to set this total at 151.5 as an opener, right? You guys know how I feel about this. When something looks "off" to the betting public it is usually for good reason! Keep in mind, Iowa is at home here and loaded with confidence as they continue to find ways to win games even when it takes late game "magic". That said, the Hawkeyes will continue to play at a fast pace here and will dictate the pace of this game with the Terps. Iowa's most recent game, at Rutgers, resulted in an under, but the over was 5-2 in the Hawkeyes 7 prior games. That's because Iowa averaged 81 points per game during that stretch and that is perfectly in line with their season average for points per game! The Hawkeyes are one of the highest-scoring teams in the Big Ten and are averaging 83.3 points per game at home this season. The over is 7-1 the last 8 times the Hawkeyes have been at home with their line ranging from a pick'em to a -3. Look for a shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Iowa |
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02-18-19 | Illinois v. Wisconsin OVER 135 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #853 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Illinois Illini @ 8 ET - The Illini are off a low-scoring upset win at Ohio State. Illinois is now 6-3 SU in their last 9 games. Also, prior to that rare low-scoring result with the Buckeyes, the Illini were on a 7-2 run to the over in their 9 previous games. One of the few ugly games during that stretch was when they lost at home to Wisconsin. In fact, other than the low-scoring win over the Buckeyes and the low-scoring loss to the Buckeyes, the Illini have scored 71 points or more in all their games since mid-January. In fact, in those 7 games Ilinois has averaged 81 points per game. Keep in mind, versus Wisconsin, the Illini should have scored just fine but they were completely off in that one. Illinois shot just 35.5% from the field, 54.5% from the free throw line, and 19% from three point land! Not only that but the Badgers Ethan Happ was limited by foul trouble and had one of his worst games of the season. Note that, even with all that, the game still totaled 132 points! That is why I feel we're getting great line value here with the low total posted on this one. Illinois is playing with a lot more confidence now than they were a month ago when these teams met in Champaign. I expect the Illini to get their fair share of points as a result but, keep in mind, this is still a team that is allowing 77 points per game on the road this season. The strength of Illinois certainly is not defense. Also, the Badgers have long been known for dominating the Illini and have scored an average of 75 points in the last 3 meetings. Wisconsin is 4-1 to the over when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Badgers are 4-1 to the over as a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Illinois is 4-1 to the over as a road dog in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin |
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02-17-19 | Villanova v. St. John's +4 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #828 Sunday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) vs Villanova Wildcats @ 5 ET - Great line value here as a line that opened up as low as a -1.5 on Villanova is all the way up to as a high as a -4 on the Wildcats as of early Sunday morning. This is great home dog line value being offered to the Red Storm. While it is true that St John's lost the first meeting this season (at Villanova), the Red Storm actually had a double digit lead in the 2nd half of that game! Also, though the Wildcats are off an 18-point win versus Providence that game was much closer than that for much of the contest. In their prior game, Nova had to rally to still lose by a point at Marquette. The point is that the Cats continue to be a covering machine but they've truly been quite fortunate in recent contests and here is where that luck runs out. I actually expect an outright upset here for the Red Storm but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered as added insurance. Note that St John's Shamorie Ponds has had great success against the Wildcats in his career and also is known for huge performances in big games. Additionally, he is coming off a rare poor game and the fact that the Red Storm still won that game (versus Butler) says a lot. The fact is that St John's is very talented (much more than just Ponds) and they also play physical basketball and the Wildcats have been having trouble on the boards for long stretches in recent games. This one will be a fierce battle and I see the Red Storm taking advantage of this marquee opportunity on their home floor against a ranked rival. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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02-16-19 | Fresno State v. New Mexico OVER 147.5 | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Fresno State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. The first meeting this season at Fresno State saw the Lobos score 70 points despite shooting only 31.9% from the field. Both teams were horrible from beyond the arc in that game too as they combined for a ridiculously bad 12 of 57 performance from three point land. The point is that, even with all that poor shooting, the game totaled 152 points. Why? Because these teams are known for playing at a great pace in their meetings and, keep in mind, the two prior meetings saw those games average 175 points! This is also the type of situation I love to look for with overs. You have the lesser team, New Mexico, at home and seeking revenge. The Lobos are averaging 80 points per game at home this season. They'll look to win this game with a red hot shooting night and they are known to "run and gun" at home. Of course Fresno State is happy to play the same pace here as they are off a low-scoring win versus Boise State but the Bulldogs previously scored an average of 80 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Lobos confidence at home is very high right now as they have scored 83 points or more in 4 of their 6 home games since the 1st of the year. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Lobos games with a posted total in the 140s this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times Fresno State has played at New Mexico. The Lobos give the Bulldogs all they can handle here and the result is a shootout. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico |
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02-15-19 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Toledo | Top | 88-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #877 Friday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) @ Toledo Rockets @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Rockets and, of course, they are happy to have the rematch at home. However, coming into this season Toledo was projected by most to be only about the 3rd best team in the MAC West. As for the MAC East, Buffalo was expected to be the top team there and they have met those expectations. The point is that the Bulls are doing what was expected of them while the Rockets have overachieved a bit. Overall on the season Buffalo has played a slightly tougher schedule too. These key factors, in my opinion, are combining to give us some solid line value here with the Bulls as a very short road favorite in this one. Sure the Rockets want revenge badly here but, keep in mind, this game is ultra-important to Buffalo too! It is not just about the Bulls being a Top 25 team and wanting to remain in the rankings, it is also the fact that Buffalo is currently battling with Bowling Green for the top spot in the East Division of the MAC. The Rockets have been helped by the fact that they play in the West which is the weaker division of the MAC this season. Also, note that the Bulls are a long-term 23-8 ATS in road games in which their line ranges from pick'em to a -3. As for Toledo, they could be a little rusty here with some extra time off leading into this game and the Rockets have covered just 3 of their last 9 games when they enter a match-up with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Bulls are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams and they make it 4 in a row here. 10* BUFFALO |
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02-14-19 | Hornets v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 89-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets are off a loss at Indiana Monday but held the Pacers to just 99 points. The over is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times Charlotte is off a game in which they held their opponent under 100 points. The Magic are off a big road win at New Orleans where they held the Pelicans to 88 points. The over is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times Orlando is off a game in which they held their opponents to 90 points or less. The pacing for an over has certainly been there in recent Magic games as they've allowed their opponents more than 90 field goal attempts in 7 of their last 8 games. Also, Orlando has had at least 90 field goal attempts in 7 of its last 9 games. The Hornets have fared extremely well against the Magic in recent seasons and, before being held to just 32.2% from the field by the Pacers Monday, Charlotte had scored 115 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Orlando's win at New Orleans was an upset win as they were a dog to the Pelicans. That certainly holds significance here as the Magic are a perfect 11-0 to the over when off an outright win as an underdog. That means we have over trending of a combined 22-0 here supporting this play. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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02-14-19 | Drexel v. James Madison OVER 147 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #611 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in James Madison Dukes vs Drexel Dragons @ 7 ET - When Drexel travels away from Philly they have shown a strong tendency for leaving their defense at home! The Dragons have allowed insane numbers on the road: 82.8 ppg, 51.6% from the field, and 42.9% from 3-point land! Another weakness of Drexel is they have a weak bench so their starters tend to get over-used. However, they are all very capable scorers (all 5 averaging in double digits on the season) and the Dragons starting five is well-rested here. Drexel hasn't played since Saturday and they shot 53.7% from the field against the College of Charleston but the Dragons also allowed 52.5% from the field in a 2-point loss that totaled 170 points. We have great value with the rather low total posted on this one as Drexel has shown a tendency all season long to get involved in very high-scoring games away from home. James Madison is likely to oblige the "run and gun" style in this one as the Dukes, even though they allowed only 66 points at Towson, allowed 51.1% shooting! James Madison has allowed 49% or better from the field in 5 of their last 7 games. The Dukes, prior to holding Towson to 66, allowed an average of 79.5 in their 6 prior games. The over was 5-2 in James Madison's 7 games prior to the Towson game staying under the total. The Dukes are averaging 76.6 ppg at home this season and have revenge from losing at Drexel this season and from getting knocked out of the conference tourney by the Dragons a year ago. That means they won't take their foot off the gas here but Drexel can match them bucket for bucket. In other words, plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in James Madison |
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02-13-19 | Pistons +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game in his CAREER went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in Boston's upset win over the 76ers. The Celtics won at Philly by 3 points yesterday and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and Boston loses the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of highly unlikely shooting result leading to an emotional upset win for the Celtics, this is pure and simple a flat spot for Boston. Of course that is why odds maker opened this line up with the Celtics favored by less than a half dozen points even though they are on their home floor. Keep in mind Kyrie Irving has been out for Boston and I would be very surprised to see him return tonight considering this is the Celtics final game before the All Star break. The smart thing to do is to let him continue to rest his knee and have continued rest then through the break. Boston had failed to cover 3 straight games before the unlikely upset win last night. Conversely, the Pistons enter this game having won (and covered) 4 straight games. Detroit also has covered its last two games against the Celtics and has the size in the paint to give Boston some trouble. This is especially true when the Pistons have a significant rest edge like they do here. The Celtics are 3-5 SU (and 2-6 ATS!) this season in the 2nd game of a back to back. Detroit is playing with a lot of confidence right now and has done well all season when in a situation like this. That is, the Pistons are 8-5 ATS (and 10-3 SU!) when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more! This one has upset written all over it and I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT |
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02-13-19 | Providence v. Villanova -11 | Top | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #782 Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - I got burned going against the Friars on Saturday with the Red Storm. No one expected that St John's would be without Mustapha Heron in that game but it made me feel like a fool when he was listed as the key player in my write-up and then 30 minutes before the game it was announced he wouldn't play. How important was he? Heron came back last night and scored 28 points in the OT win for the Red Storm over Butler. The point is that Providence, though they still deserve credit of course for the Saturday win, were very fortunate that Heron didn't play as it resulted in St John's being completely out of rhythm in that game. Now the Friars, after being in the right place at the right time, are in a complete 180 situation and are in the wrong place at the wrong time! Villanova is at home and coming off a one point loss at Marquette on Saturday. SU losses have been rare for the Wildcats this season and they are known for responding after a defeat. Nova is 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they were off a SU loss. This spread is double digits but it is justified. The Cats led the Friars by 18 points at halftime at Providence early last month. The Friars, at home, were able to claw back into the game in the 2nd half. However, on the road, that will not happen and this is particularly true when you consider the angry mindset of the Wildcats team they are facing here. Providence is 8-10 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. Villanova is 14-6 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Wildcats turn this into a home blowout. 10* VILLANOVA |
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02-12-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -6 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are a much different team than the ones that the Celtics have dominated in recent meetings. Not only did Boston knock Philly out of the playoffs in 5 games in May, the Celtics also have won each of the first two meetings this season. However, not only were those games at Boston and this one is in Philadelphia, the Sixers also are now stacked. Not only do they now have a "Big Four" with Embiid, Simmons, Butler and Harris, the 76ers also still have JJ Redick and the sharp-shooter is currently red hot from beyond the arc. They are loaded with weapons while the Celtics are actually down a key one today as Kyrie Irving (knee) has been downgraded to out for this game! Boston is 9-17 ATS this season in road games and also just 3-6 ATS as an underdog this season. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. In other words, the Celtics have not covered a single game this season that they've lost SU as an underdog. That said, note that Philly is quite likely to get the SU win here. The 76ers are 23-6 SU at home this season. In other words, the odds are heavily stacked in our favor here for a Sixers win and cover. In terms of technical support for the 76ers, Philly is 35-13 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - when the Sixers are facing them in the 2nd half of the season. Overall the 76ers are a fantastic 72-43 ATS long-term in home games. The Celtics have been slumping and are on a 5-11 ATS run and Boston is in the wrong place at the wrong time. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-12-19 | St Bonaventure v. St. Joe's -1 | Top | 76-51 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs St Bonaventure Bonnies @ 6:30 ET - This line was as high as a -3 on St Joseph's early on when lines first came out yesterday afternoon. It has since dropped to very nearly a pick'em and this is offering superb line value on the home team. This is a big-time revenge game and I look for the Hawks to get home revenge in this one just like they did when they blasted the Billikens on Friday. Earlier this season St Joseph's had lost at St Louis and shot just 29.5% from the field in the embarrassing loss. The Hawks got payback in Philly Friday. Similar situation here. St Joseph's lost badly at St Bonaventure and shot 29.1% in the defeat and now it is payback time in Philly as they host the Bonnies. Though the Hawks are short-handed, including being without Lamarr Kimble, that problem is mitigated by the fact that St Joseph's enters this game with 3 days off and they have 2 days off after this. In other words, it is no problem to fully utilize all hands on deck fully in this one and that worked just fine when they blasted St Louis by 30 on Friday. The Hawks are catching the Bonnies at the right time as St Bonaventure has been held to below 30% from the field (including horrific 3-point shooting performances) in each of their last two games. Off back to back losses, St Bonaventure has scored an average of just 53 points per game in their last two games. The Bonnies are just 4-9 SU on the road this season while the Hawks are a solid 9-3 SU at home this season. St Bonaventure is just 2-4 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they were held to just 60 points or less. The Hawks are a perfect 3-0 SU this season in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5 points. 10* ST JOSEPH'S |
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02-11-19 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 210.5 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The very first numbers that popped up on this total offshore were as high as a 212.5 in some books. It has since moved down about a bucket from the opener and I like the value here that we're getting in a game where neither team is highly motivated to play much defense. That's because the Cavaliers and Knicks are both in the running for the #1 spot in the NBA draft and are simply playing out the string on very disappointing seasons. I am well aware of the fact that New York has been on a long-term trend of unders and that the Cavs have also been trending under. However, there is plenty of reason to believe that this one plays out quite loose and high-scoring. Cleveland has allowed 114.6 points per game in their last 11 home games. The over is 11-5 in the Cavaliers last 16 home games. The Knicks are allowing 115.7 points per game in their road games on the season! Both teams have unimpressive offensive production but when defenses are this bad there is going to be plenty of quality looks at the basket. This is especially true in a game that is likely to be played a little "loosey goosey" with very little attention to detail on defense. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in Cavaliers games against Atlantic Division opponents and also the over improves to 4-1 in the rare situation of the Cavs being a favorite in a game. Two bad teams, not a lot of defense, and a shootout breaks out in this one! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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02-11-19 | Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 142 | Top | 69-61 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #855 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7 ET - There are 3 teams that are clearly the top teams in the ACC. That group includes these two matched up here as well as Duke. There is no doubt that the Tar Heels are very similar in style to the Blue Devils. This is the only regular season meeting between North Carolina and Virginia. That said, lets look at how the Cavaliers fared against Duke this season. They just had their 2nd match-up of the season on Saturday. The Blue Devils scorched the Cavs from three point land. In the prior meeting this season, at Duke, the Cavaliers held Duke in check but gave up too much inside. That is why the Blue Devils averaged 76.5 points per game this season in their two games against the vaunted defense of Virginia. Note that UNC is averaging 88.3 points per game on the season. You can see where I am going with this. The fact is the Tar Heels are going to "get theirs" in this game in terms of scoring plenty of points. They do not want to let UVA control the tempo here and, since this game is at North Carolina, I do expect the Tar Heels to have quite a say so in the tempo of this game. The Heels will look to run and gun and create quick transition scoring opportunities. The Cavaliers defensive mindset is still shaken from getting blitzed by Duke and now they have to face a team that is averaging even more points per game than Duke this season. This is a tough match-up for the Cavs but I do expect them to score plenty. Virginia has shot 47% from the field on the road and averaged 70 points per game away from home this season. The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 3-1 in Tar Heels home games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points. North Carolina wants revenge for last season's ACC Tourney loss to the Cavaliers and the Tar Heels know they will NOT get revenge by playing a plodding slow style here. In other words, this game has "up tempo" written all over it! 10* OVER the total in North Carolina |
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02-10-19 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 223 | Top | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The Magic are off a huge upset win at Milwaukee last night as they held the Bucks to just 83 points. You know it will be easy for them to now fall flat on the defensive end of the courts as they go from facing one of the best teams in the East to facing a team that is nearly 20 games under .500 on the season. Yes the Hawks are a division rival but it is not much of a rivalry when a team is having an awful season. Atlanta did put up 120 points yesterday against Charlotte but the Hawks, even though they were at home, allowed 129 points. As bad as that sounds it is truly not that unusual. The over is 10-4 in Atlanta's last 14 games and a lot of it has to do with porous defense as well as playing at a fast pace. The Hawks have now allowed an average of 122 points per game their last 14 games. The Magic are favored by a bucket here. So if the Hawks continue to play as they have been for the past month now and allow 122 here and the odds maker is right about the spread (as they so often are) this could be a 122-120 game. That puts us nearly 20 points over the posted number on this game. The total was as high as a 226 with early numbers but has been pushed down to a 223. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move in this one! Prior to yesterday's dominating road win at Milwaukee, the over was actually on a 4-1 run in Orlando's last 5 games away from home. How likely is another "grinder" for the Magic after yesterday's low-scoring win? VERY unlikely! The over is 8-1 this season in Orlando games when the Magic are off a game in which they allowed 90 points or less. Look for a shootout here! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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02-10-19 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame OVER 128 | Top | 59-69 | Push | 0 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #837 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 6 ET - There is a long history of match-ups between Notre Dame and Georgia Tech staying under the total. That continued in this season's earlier match-up at Georgia Tech 3 weeks ago. The Yellow Jackets are known for getting involved in low-scoring grinder type games. Looking at the final score of 63-61 in the Jackets win over the Fighting Irish 3 weeks ago it looks like Georgia Tech was very successful in slowing down Notre Dame. However, when one digs a little deeper one finds that the Irish actually attempted 65 shots in the game including 30 three pointers! So it wasn't really the tempo of the game that kept it under the total, it was the fact that the Irish shot very poorly in that game. I don't expect a repeat of that here. The Fighting Irish are not offensive juggernauts but they do average a solid 73 points per game when at home this season. They also are allowing 68 points per game at home. It will be Notre Dame, on their home floor, dictating the pace in this game and I expect us to get well above the 128 that is currently posted on this one. You can see that Fighting Irish games tend to total around 140 points and they're very likely to shoot much better in this rematch. Also, the over is a long-term 29-16 (including 6-2 in recent seasons) when the Irish are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The over is 6-3 when Georgia Tech enters a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. 10* OVER the total in Notre Dame |
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02-09-19 | Duke v. Virginia -114 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter GOW - Rickenbach CBB Game #714 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Cavaliers (-) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 6 ET - The Cavaliers have just one loss this season and it came at Duke. In that game the Cavs made just 3 of 17 three pointers which certainly was a key factor. Now, of course, one could argue that the Blue Devils only made 2 of 14 three pointers and that make it a mute point. However, the reason I would dispute that is that Duke was t home for that game! They couldn't make threes against the nation's #1 ranked defense and it is unlikely that will improve on the road for sure! As for the Cavaliers though the story is certainly different as they now get their shot at the Blue Devils in Virginia. The Cavs are averaging 9 three pointers per game and hitting 42.1% from beyond the arc when on their home floor this season. Overall on the season the Cavs are hitting 39.4% from three point land while the Blue Devils have struggled to a 30.8% this season from downtown. Now I know that Duke has, surprisingly, shot better from outside on the road compared to at home this season but they're now going to a raucous arena in Virginia and facing the nation's #1 defense. The Cavaliers want this game badly and, in my opinion, they are not going to be denied. They came into this season projected by many to finish above Duke in the ACC and they can earn that billing by knocking off the Blue Devils in this huge rematch. Duke is 1-4 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s. The Blue Devils are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games against teams that are allowing an average of 64 points or less on the season. The Cavaliers are 22-4 SU (and 20-6 ATS) in games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for a defensive battle which will suit the Cavs very well and they get payback. The line on this game has dropped to as low as a -1 which has opened up good value on the money line for those of you that have access to it - as low as the -115 range. 10* VIRGINIA |
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02-09-19 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 221 | Top | 105-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs @ 5:05 ET - The over is 8-1 in the Spurs last 9 games. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams and that includes 4-1 the last 5 times they've met in Utah. The Jazz are a long-term 10-3 to the over in home games with a posted total of 220 or more. In other words, though a big total like this on a game in Utah is quite rare, don't let the big total scare you away from the over. The Spurs have been putting up huge points but can't stop anybody. Also, the Jazz are seeking revenge for a loss at San Antonio in the most recent meeting between these teams. Keep in mind, Utah has been known for some huge shooting performances at home this season and that includes putting up 139 the last time they hosted the Spurs. Also, the over is 12-1 this season in San Antonio's road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. As you can see with both of these teams, when big totals are posted on their games, it has proven to be justified nearly every time and I feel strongly that will be the case again here. The desperate Spurs have lost 3 straight games so they're not going to back down here but they'll have to do it with offense because their defense has had plenty of issues of late and that means this one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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02-08-19 | Nuggets v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are looking to respond off back to back losses. Also, both the Nuggets and 76ers have fared well against the opposing conference this season. However, there are two key factors that strongly favor the Sixers here. First off, the huge trade with the Clippers that included Tobias Harris is going to lead to a ton of positive energy for Philly in this one. Secondly, that energy level is going to be boosted even higher here because this game is at Philadelphia with the home court edge being a huge factor in this one. The Nuggets are on an ugly 3-12 ATS run in home games! Conversely, the 76ers are a long-term 70-43 ATS in home games. Also, Philly has not lost 3 straight games this season. In other words, you can fully expect the bounce back here with a home victory. However, what about the all important cover? Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season when off a divisional game and they are fired up after the ugly loss to the Raptors. Also, the Sixers are 9-1 SU (and 8-2 ATS!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin! Long-term the 76ers are 35-17 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points! The Nuggets, of course, are also looking to bounce back here but they are an ugly 2-6 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Denver is an ugly 3-8 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. While all 3 Sixers acquisitions from the Clippers are listed as probable for tonight, the Nuggets Gary Harris has been ruled out for this game and Paul Millsap is questionable with his ankle injury still a factor. The Sixers have held 9 of their last 11 opponents to 47% or less from the field. Denver has allowed their last 4 opponents to average 51.4% from the field! Look for the Nuggets to drop to 3-9 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Home blowout here for Sixers rejuvenated with the Harris acquisition. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-08-19 | St. Louis v. St. Joe's OVER 131.5 | Top | 61-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #851 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Joseph's Hawks vs St Louis Billikens @ 7 ET - These teams have a history of playing to the under in recent meetings. However, there is plenty of reason to believe that this one snaps that trend. When these teams met three weeks ago at St Louis, the Hawks shot only 29.5% from the field and allowed the Billikens to shoot only 38.6% from the field. Even with those very ugly numbers the game totaled 125 points. This total, as of early game day morning, is currently as low as 131.5 points and I feel we're getting great value here when you consider the first result between these teams. The reason is because St Joseph's will look to increase the pace on their home floor and also it is highly unlikely that we'll see such poor shooting in the rematch. How unlikely? The Hawks have allowed at least 43% from the field in each of their five games since the loss at St Louis and 4 of the 5 games saw St Joseph's opponents shoot 46% or better from the field. The Hawks allowed 73.6 points per game in those 5 games. Also, St Joseph's other 7 games since mid-January (other than the ugly performance against the Billikens) have seen them held under 40% from the field just 1 other time. In the other 6 games the Hawks averaged 70.3 points per game. You can see why I am expecting this game to get to the 140 to 145 range tonight. The Billikens have allowed their last 3 opponents to average 48% from the field and St Louis has shot 42% or better in 3 straight games. The Hawks are hungry for revenge here and they know they can't afford to let the Billikens turn this game into a "grinder" so I expect a lot of pressure and that can turn into turnovers and quick transition points as well as breakdowns in defense when St Louis beats the pressure. In other words, there is going to be some quick scoring runs throughout this game in my opinion. The over is a perfect 3-0 when St Louis is a road favorite of 3 points or less. The over is 12-5 in St Joseph's February games. Also, the Hawks are 3-0 to the over as a home dog of 3 points or less. 10* OVER the total in St Joseph's |
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02-07-19 | Clippers +6 v. Pacers | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - This is one of my typical contrarian plays. The first line that popped up on this game was a -4 early this morning. Keep in mind this is after the public just watched the Pacers destroy the Lakers at home on Tuesday and hand LeBron James the worst loss of his career. Now Indiana is at home again and they're facing the "other" LA team that just traded away Tobias Harris (plus two other role players) to the 76'ers. So, of course, the betting masses are jumping all over the Pacers here and the line got driven up to a -6. I have said this many times before and will say it again here...actually, I will say two things. First off, anything can happen in any game but the key in this business is to always try and have the odds in your favor. That said, my second comment/question as I have stated before is - do you really think the odds makers are stupid? The point being that they are well aware of the impact of the trade. They certainly know Indiana is the home team in this game. Yet they set the line at a 4 with good reason. The betting markets jump all over it and now I am happy to fade the masses and grab the Clippers here. Watch LA "rally the troops" tonight while the Pacers get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves after the blowout of LeBron and Company on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Indiana is playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights. Also, prior to the win over the Lakers, the Pacers were on a 1-5 ATS run. Indiana is also 4-9 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more. Long-term, the Pacers are an ugly 1-5 ATS (and SU!) when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. In other words, don't be surprised if the Clips pull off the upset tonight. I am grabbing the "insurance" with having the points however and am happy to have a half dozen points on my side. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games, on a 16-8 ATS run in February games, and are 20-11 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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02-07-19 | Penn State v. Ohio State OVER 131 | Top | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Buckeyes as they lost to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Conference Tournament in March. That said, Ohio State is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one and they are known for scoring very well on their home floor. The Buckeyes have averaged 77.3 points per game in their home games this season. However, something about Ohio State always seems to bring out the best in Penn State and the Nittany Lions have averaged 75 points per game in their last 4 games against the Buckeyes. I would not be surprised to see PSU trading buckets with OSU for much of this game and we should see some great scoring runs throughout this contest. The first total that popped up on this game offshore was 132.5 and it dropped to a 131 as of early this morning and I feel we have great value here with the over. Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 135 points. The over is 8-3 in Penn State's last 11 visits to Ohio State. The over is also 5-1 in the Buckeyes last 6 home games entering this contest. Though the Nittany Lions have mostly trended under this season, the over is 3-1 the last 4 times Penn State has been a road underdog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The over is also 3-1 this season in Buckeyes home games versus teams with a losing record. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Ohio State |
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02-06-19 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 230 | Top | 129-148 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #563 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - Huge total posted on this game but absolutely justified. The Wizards recently had one strong defensive game at home against Indiana. In their other 4 games since January 27th, Washington has allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field in all 4 games. The Wizards have allowed an average of 129 points per game in those 4 games. One of those games was at home against the Bucks and the game totaled 246 points. I would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. Milwaukee did allow only 94 points in their next game but it certainly wasn't due to a lack of pace! The Bucks hosted the Nets and Brooklyn actually attempted 102 shots from the field but it was simply 'one of those nights' and the Nets made just 32.4% of their shots. While fast pace is expected again here, you can expect the Wizards will shoot very well. Washington has shot 49% from the field their last 4 games and averaged 116.6 points per game their last 5 games. The over is 17-7 this season in Wizards games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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02-06-19 | VCU -6.5 v. George Washington | Top | 60-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Virginia Commonwealth Rams @ George Washington Colonials @ 7 ET - This line opened up at nearly double digits but, as of early game day morning, it has dropped to as low as a 6.5 in some big books. This is a great value add for us as we can get a Rams team that I do expect to win by double digits and yet we're laying only about a half-dozen points. Yes, Virginia Commonwealth is on the road here but that is actually part of the key to this play. What that does is keep the line manageable. Had the Rams been at home they would have opened up at around 15 points for sure. The other key about being on the road is that is often how revenge can best be served! VCU is absolutely out for revenge on this very court where they got thoroughly embarrassed last season by a final score of 80 to 56. For this season's rematch, Virginia Commonwealth enters with a solid 15-6 season while George Washington in currently struggling through an ugly 7-14 campaign. The Colonials are off a home win but that came against a bad Fordham team that is just 1-6 on the road this season. Prior to that win, George Washington had lost 5 of their 6 prior games and the average margin of defeat was 9.6 points in those 5 losses. The Rams are surging on an 8-2 SU run and the only two losses were at Rhode Island and Davidson. Those teams are a combined 17-2 SU at home this season! By comparison, the Colonials are 5-7 SU at home this season. By the way, the VCU wins in their 8-2 stretch their last 10 games have come by an average margin of 13 points per victory! The Rams are 20-9 ATSÂ in a road game where the total is 130 to 134.5 points. George Washington is 7-14 ATS when off a win in conference action! 10* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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02-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #554 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This is a great spot for the Sixers from a situational standpoint. Philly is off a loss and they have had two days off since that defeat and they have two days off after this game hosting the Raptors. In other words the 76ers are all in on this game and they're hosting a Toronto team that is expected to be short-handed with Kyle Lowry listed as doubtful (back). The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. 4 of those 5 wins have come by a double digit margin and, in fact, the average margin of victory has been 15 points in those 5 wins. Philadelphia got upset as a favorite at Sacramento Saturday but they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've been off a SU loss. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are 27-16 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The 76ers are also 33-12 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are a facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is looking to close the gap with Toronto in the Atlantic Division standings and I expect them to get the job done in a big way with strong situational edges here. Of course Lowry being likely to miss this game makes the spot an even stronger one as you know the former Villanova star would love to be playing in Philly tonight but is unlikely the Raptors are going to risk a lot with Lowry so close to the All Star break. Play PHILADELPHIA |
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02-05-19 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -15.5 | Top | 48-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #618 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I rarely lay big points and for me to do so requires exactly the ideal situation. This particular case is the text book example of a perfect time to lay big points with a favorite that is set up perfectly to absolutely crush their opponent by 20+ points. The very first number that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon was 18 and it is down to a 15.5 as of early this morning. Both teams are off wins but while Kentucky had a "growth game" for its, as usual, young roster by rallying for a win; the Gamecocks were off a wire to wire win but that was thanks to hitting an insanely high percentage of their three pointers. That won't happen again here. The Wildcats have been patiently waiting for this opportunity. Last season the Cats led the Gamecocks by 14 in the 2nd half and then they watched Chris Silva take over for South Carolina and lead them to the huge comeback win. It is payback time here and that is a key when laying big points. The point is that the Wildcats, even with a big lead, will not take their foot off the gas in this one and it is set up to be a home blowout. Kentucky's frontcourt will be a key in stopping Silva. Note that PJ Washington is now a sophomore and another big forward, senior Reid Travis was NOT with the Wildcats last season (he played his first four with Stanford). Travis has been a key player for Kentucky this season and will help Washington in slowing down Silva. As for the outside game of the Gamecocks, their three-point shooting will cool off quickly at Kentucky as the Wildcats have turned up the heat on defense (including perimeter defense) and that has played a key role in their 8 games winning streak. The Cats have covered 6 in a row too! Also, in the last 7 games of this 8-game winning streak they only had 1 poor game defensively. In the other 6 they allowed an average of only 53 points per game! Keep in mind, Kentucky is averaging 80 points per game at home this season. So if the Wildcats hold South Carolina to 53 and they hit their usual scoring average they win this 80-53. I honestly would not be surprised to see that and I do see this win coming by 20 points or more! 10* KENTUCKY |
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02-04-19 | Hawks +6 v. Wizards | Top | 137-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #533 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - When you look at Monday's full NBA card you see the following teams favored: Spurs, Rockets, Pacers, Bucks, Nuggets, and Wizards. What sticks out when you look at the list? There is only one team with a losing record that is in that list and it is the team I am fading right here. Now I know the Hawks, of course, are not a great team. However, they are catching about a half-dozen points here against a Wizards team that is only 4-5 SU in their last 9 games and two of those wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 6 points with Washington would result in a 2-7 ATS record their last 9 games. The Hawks are seeking revenge for a double digit loss when these teams most recently met, also in DC, in early January. Atlanta is wrapping up a 7-game road trip and, although they are still not home, the Hawks are happy to be back east again. Atlanta is 3-3 so far on this trip and is hell-bent on finishing with a winning road trip. They are going hard for the 4th win here and I expect them to be the more motivated team here. Interestingly, the Wizards have a game on deck at Milwaukee and that is the same Bucks team that they just got throttled by at home by a double digit margin Saturday. Could the Wizards overlook the Hawks? With Atlanta having a 17-35 record you better believe it! Look for the Hawks to improve to 8-4 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. Washington is off an ugly loss to Milwaukee but is 2-8 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 10* ATLANTA |
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02-04-19 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 72-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 7 ET - The line was as high as a -6 and has dropped to 3.5 as of early Monday morning. This line move is opening up great value on the home favorite here. I understand the move as the Hokies are off a dominating win over NC State Saturday while the Cardinals are off an ugly loss versus North Carolina the same day and so many bettors are playing the zig-zag theory here. Additionally, Virginia Tech will be without guard Justin Robinson again as he his out indefinitely with a foot injury. However, Robinson didn't play Saturday either and that was a 47-24 win at NC State! As for Louisville, they were at home on Saturday versus North Carolina but still had an ugly game and got dominated on the glass. Adding to the value with the Hokies here is the fact that they were swept by the Cardinals in last season's meetings and Louisville has won 5 straight over Virginia Tech! Coach Buzz Williams and his players are out for revenge (big-time!) on Monday night and being on their home floor certainly will help. The Hokies are 11-0 SU at Cassel Coliseum this season and they are beginning a three-game homestand with this revenge opportunity tonight. The Cardinals are just 4-4 SU this season in their games played away from Louisville. Only one of the Hokies 18 wins this season has come by less than 6 points and in fact, 15 of the 18 victories have come by a double digit margin. Look for another home blowout here. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
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02-03-19 | Stanford v. California OVER 145 | Top | 84-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #833 Saturday CBB 10* Top Play OVER the total in California Golden Bears vs Stanford Cardinal @ 4 ET - Those who appreciate strong defensive play in college hoops might want to look elsewhere on Saturday. The Cardinal are allowing 74 points per game on the road this season. The Golden Bears are allowing 50% from the field, 38.5% from three point land, and 79 points per game on the season! Each of the last 3 regular season meetings between these teams has resulted in an over and this total on Sunday is low enough to fully expect another one. The over is 4-2 in Stanford's last 6 road games. The over is 4-2 in California's last 6 home games. The average points scored in the last 6 road games for the Cardinal is 151. For Cal, 5 of their last 6 home games have totaled at least 146 points. That is why the small drop on this total this morning carries even a little more significance for our purposes here. In terms of long-term trending, the over is 11-3 in Stanford's February games the last two years. The over is 4-1 when the Golden Bears are playing with 7 or more days of rest between games and also 4-1 when the Bears are a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Look all these trends to continue here on Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in California |
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02-03-19 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 226 | Top | 129-134 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #527 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 2:05 ET - The recent match-up history between these teams has trended under and that is the direction many will be looking in this one as a result. However, the way these two have been playing of late and the fact this is a non-conference match-up (generally a little less defensive intensity in those), has me looking for a solid over in this match-up. Both teams are red hot. The Celtics have won 8 of their last 9 games and averaged 116 points per game in doing so. The Thunder have won 7 straight games and they've reached the century mark in each of their last dozen games. In fact, Oklahoma City has averaged 124 points per game in these 12 games. Two of those games did go to OT but if we remove those points for the Thunder they are still averaging, in regulation, 122 points per game those dozen games! The over is 10-2 in those 12 OKC games! The over is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's last 9 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. The over is 14-4 this season in Thunder games when they are coming off a non-conference game. The over is 13-5 this season when the Celtics face a team with a winning record. History says under but the current play of these two teams absolutely suggests otherwise. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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02-02-19 | Alabama v. Auburn -9 | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #746 Saturday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 8 ET - The Tigers have had to wait a long time for this rematch and I fully expect a home blowout here. Last March, in the SEC Tournament, Auburn led Alabama by double digits at the half. By virtue of a great shooting performance for the Crimson Tide and a horrible shooting performance for the Tigers, Alabama had a huge 2nd half and won the game by 18 points! It was a beatdown (outscored by 28 in the 2nd half) that Auburn most certainly has not forgotten and it is payback time here. The Tigers are the better team this season, they are at home, and they are playing with big-time revenge. That is why I am willing to lay a big number here as I feel strongly that Auburn will get a double digit lead here and then, because of what happened in March, the Tigers absolutely will keep their foot on the gas! The Crimson Tide are off a big win but that was at home against Mississippi State. Prior to knocking off the Bulldogs, Alabama had lost 4 of 6. The Tigers are a huge 10-1 this season and the lone loss was to Kentucky! The 10 home wins for Auburn have been games decided by a victory margin of 30.2 points! You read that right...THIRTY point margin of victory on average! Another home blowout expected here as the Tigers get revenge in a big way! 10* AUBURN |
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02-02-19 | Bucks v. Wizards OVER 227 | Top | 131-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The odds makers made a huge mistake, right? The first total that popped up on this game was a 231.5 on Friday afternoon. Of course with the history of unders between these teams and the perceived "mistake" the total has been driven down to a 227 as of early Saturday morning. I am happy to jump on the over and grab the added value here. The Bucks are off a very strong defensive effort to get a big win over Toronto, the top team in the East. Milwaukee entered that game having allowed an average of 111.5 points per game in their two prior games. As for the Wizards, they are off a surprisingly strong effort on the defensive end as they held the Pacers to 89 points in their win over Indiana. Prior to that, Washington had allowed 124 points per game in their two prior games. While one could argue that those were on the road, also note that prior to beating Indiana the Wizards allowed 126 points in their most recent home game. Both the Bucks and Wizards have been scoring a ton of points and now coming off big wins that involved huge defensive efforts I expect a letdown on D here and an all-out offensive onslaught in this game to result! Note that the over is 21-12 when Milwaukee is off an upset win as an underdog and that includes 3-1 this season. The Bucks are also on a 29-10 run to the over in Saturday games including 6-2 to the over this season. The over is 13-5 in Wizards home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. Washington is 6-1 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Wizards are also on a 23-10 run to the over in Saturday games including 6-1 to the over this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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02-01-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Friday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets had a 6-8 January but 10 of their 14 games were on the road! Charlotte is a different team when they are at home. They've won 3 straight home games and the average victory margin in those games was 16 points. Also, the Hornets run at home goes further back than that. They're 7-1 in all home games since mid-December and the 7 wins all came by 9 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.6 per win! While Charlotte, despite a sub-.500 record, is battling for the top spot in the Southeast Division, the Grizzlies are 12 games below .500 and in the basement of the Southwest Division. Memphis also had let it be know that they were willing to take offers on a Conley/Gasol package but they were trying to unload Parsons contract as part of the deal. In any event, the point is that the Grizzlies are in disarray right now while the Hornets are batting hard for the division lead as we head closer to the All-Star break. Memphis has lost 16 of their last 18 games! The Grizzlies are 0-8 in their last 8 road games and they lost those games by an average margin of 13.8 points per defeat! The Hornets are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the very first line that popped up on this game yesterday was 6.5 but it has dropped to 4.5 and I am grabbing the great value with the small home favorite. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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02-01-19 | Michigan v. Iowa OVER 141.5 | Top | 59-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #861 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7 ET - The fact this game is at Iowa makes a big difference. This is a contrarian play because Michigan is allowing just 56 points per game this season. If that average were to hold true and they win the game by 4 points as odds makers are calling for, you've got a 60-56 game that falls well short of this total. So the odds makers must have made a big mistake, right? Of course not! The fact is that Iowa is fully capable of putting up big points (they average 82 per game this season) and this is particularly true when they are at home where the shooters are even more comfortable. The over is actually 7-1 the last 8 times these teams have met at Iowa. The Hawkeyes also lost to the Wolverines in the Big Ten tourney last season so there is extra motivation here - and, by the way, that neutral site game also went over the total. The Hawkeyes enter this game off a defeat and the over is 4-0 this season when they are off a Big Ten loss. The over is 9-5 in Michigan's February games the past two years. The long-term trending of these games going over when the Hawkeyes are the host continues here. 10* OVER the total in Iowa |
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01-31-19 | Xavier v. Georgetown OVER 152.5 | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #635 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Georgetown Hoyas vs Xaviers Musketeers @ 8 ET - The last 7 meetings between these teams have all gone over the total. In addition to that perfect 7-0 O/U record, the over is 11-3 this season in Georgetown's games against teams with a winning record. The Hoyas are on an 8-1 run to the over in their last 9 games overall. Georgetown is averaging 87 points per game this season but their defense certainly has not been overly impressive. That is where Xavier will look to take advantage. The Musketeers are off a loss versus Marquette Saturday where they had a big lead but perhaps got a little too complacent with hit and they paid the ultimate price as the Golden Eagles rallied for the win. Xavier won't make the same mistake here and they'll push the pace all game long and certainly the Hoyas are proven to enjoy the "run and gun" game this season. The over is 4-1 in the Musketeers last 5 games. Xavier has struggled to stop the 3-point shot this season and the Hoyas are averaging 38% from beyond the arc in their home games. In other words, look for a high-paced shootout and I am happy to take advantage of the line move here too as this one opened up at a 155 but is down to a 152.5 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Georgetown |
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01-31-19 | Mavs +2 v. Pistons | Top | 89-93 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for the Mavericks, there are a couple of key factors as to why there is plenty of value here. First off, Dallas blew out the Knicks so easily last night that no one played more than 29 minutes. Secondly, that game was preceded by 2 off days. Also, up next for the Mavericks is a stretch that sees them with just 1 game in the first 5 days of February. In other words, Dallas will go all out here and they are a hot 5-0 ATS their last 5 games. Additionally, the Mavericks are actually on a 3-1 ATS run the last 4 times they've played the 2nd game of a back to back and that stretch included games at Portland, at Oklahoma City, at Philadelphia, and versus the Clippers. All 4 of those teams are much tougher opponents than this stumbling and bumbling dysfunctional Pistons squad. Detroit enter this game on a 5-12 SU run. Lets also not forget about the East/West factor. In non-conference games the Pistons are 7-10 SU this season. As for the Mavericks, with last night's blowout win, they are now 13-5 ATS in non-conference games. Also, Dennis Smith Jr had a triple double last night and the Mavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the 4 games since he returned to the lineup as he is a key running mate with Luke Doncic and this is a dangerous Dallas team when they are on the floor together. Of course the Pistons would like to get revenge for last week's loss at Dallas but the Mavericks are fighting even harder than Detroit has been when it comes to staying alive in their respective conference playoff races. The Pistons are 4-9 SU when off a double digit loss. The Mavs are 26-13 ATS against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. 10* DALLAS |
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01-30-19 | Mavs v. Knicks OVER 217 | Top | 114-90 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The Mavericks are off a strong scoring effort but fell just short in their loss versus the Raptors Sunday. Dallas is 8-5 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Also, the Mavs are seeking revenge in this games as they lost when they hosted the Knicks earlier this season. As a result, look for Dallas to go hard here and not take their foot off the gas even if they get a big lead. The Mavericks are 5-2 to the over this season when playing with home loss revenge. As for New York, they didn't score well in their most recent home game but that was against defensive-minded Miami. Prior to that game the Knicks 4 prior home games saw them average 107.5 points per game. Also, their match-ups with Western Conference opponents are known for being high-scoring. The over is 10-5 this season in New York's non-conference games. Dallas has gone 5-2 to the over this season in games against Atlantic Division opponents. The Mavericks first game with the Knicks totaled 224 points and I fully expect a similar total to be amassed in the rematch as the situation is ideal for a high-scoring game. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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01-30-19 | Marquette v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #784 Wednesday 10* Top Play Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 6:30 ET - To the casual observer this line will look "off" but it is truly anything but. The betting markets may be a little confused as to how a Top Ten Marquette team that has won 7 straight games can be in the range of a 3-point dog against a Butler team that has lost 6 of its last 9 games. After all, take a look at the records too: Golden Eagles (18-3, 7-1 Big East) and the Bulldogs (12-9, 3-5 Big East). Wow, the odds makers made a big mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about that. Many will be lining up on Marquette here but sharps will be on Butler as this game has home rout written all over it. The Golden Eagles are off an improbable win at Xavier as they were down by double digits to the Musketeers in the 2nd half. How did they do it? Ridiculous 3-point shooting which won't be repeated here. Marquette made 56% of their three pointers Saturday and that was in a road game folks. The Golden Eagles previously had one other insane road performance when they knocked down 57.1% of their threes at Creighton in a game they still only won by 2 points. Other than that, Marquette has been held to 28% from beyond the arc in their other 3 true road games (at Georgetown, St. Johns, and Indiana). The Bulldogs are a tough team to face at Butler and they're knocking down 40% of their threes in home games this season. They have played at Creighton and have faced Villanova and St John's in their last 3 games. Battle tested and ready for a statement win tonight, the Bulldogs did beat the Red Storm by 9 and that is the same team that crushed these Golden Eagles by 20 before they began their 7 game winning streak which has not included facing Villanova. The point is that the Golden Eagles are a little over-rated right now and the odds makers and sharp bettors know this but the betting masses are still overly high on Marquette right now. Creates an interesting match-up tonight and I also like the fact that Butler is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when they're at home off back to back ATS losses. Marquette is 17-27 ATS (including 2-4 ATS this season) when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games against the Golden Eagles and they get the cash again on Wednesday evening. 10* BUTLER |
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01-29-19 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 218.5 | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - I know these teams have trended under in recent weeks. I am also aware of the fact that recent meetings between these teams each of the last few seasons have trended under the total as well. However, in typical contrarian fashion here, I am backing the over. Of course it is not without plenty of good reason. First off the Bucks have averaged 114.3 points per game in their 3 games against the Pistons this season. As for Detroit, though they struggled in their games at Milwaukee, they have averaged 107 points per game the last two times they've hosted the Bucks. The Pistons made 14 three pointers in their most recent home contest versus the Bucks and, like most teams, perform better on the offensive end when at home. Detroit is also well rested here and the over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Pistons entered a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Detroit's Tuesday games. As for the Bucks, they're fired up off a loss at Oklahoma City. Milwaukee is 29-14 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The Bucks won't take their foot off the gas in this one against the Pistons. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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01-29-19 | Kansas v. Texas OVER 139 | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #619 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 7 ET - The very first total that popped up on this game was 141 yesterday. It has been adjusted down to as low as a 139 now. The last 7 meetings between these teams have all totaled at least 142 points. That's 7 straight game totals in match-ups between these teams that have eclipsed the total on this game. I understand the mindset that the Longhorns have to bounce back at home after giving up 98 points at Georgia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge this past weekend. However, Texas giving up high percentage shots on defense has been a recurring them in recent weeks. The O/U in Horns games is now 4-1 their last 5 and that includes 2-0 in home games. The Longhorns have allowed an average of 76.6 points per game during this stretch. As for Kansas, they employ a 4-guard lineup and of course that can cause some issues defending the paint and rebounding. The Jayhawks can score just fine though as they're averaging 77.3 points per game on the season. However, Kansas has allowed 72.5 points per game their last 4 games and the Longhorns have averaged 78 points per game in their last 3 meetings with the Jayhawks. That includes the 80-78 loss at Kansas two weeks ago. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Also, the over is 7-0 in Jayhawks games with a posted total between 130 and 139.5 points. The Kansas over is also 9-3 this season when off a non-conference game. The over is 5-2 in the Longhorns last 7 home games. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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01-28-19 | Warriors v. Pacers OVER 226 | Top | 132-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #529 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - The Warriors are off of an under but the over was 9-2 in Golden State's 11 prior games. The Pacers enter this game with a record of 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games. The teams combined for 232 points in their most recent meeting in Indiana. The Warriors have been red hot and scoring a ton of points. Golden State is averaging 129 points their last 12 games. If they hit that "average" here and win by 9 as the odds makers are projecting you're talking about a 129-120 game. I am not saying we're going to see 249 points here but I do feel that this number shows we have some great value with playing the over in this match-up. The Pacers have had just one bad game offensively in their last 7 games. In the other 6 games as a host since Christmas, Indiana has averaged 119 points per game. Truly one could make the argument this is going to be a 129 to 119 type of game. The over is 13-7 in Golden State's road games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times Indiana has entered a game off a road loss. They bounce back with a strong performance on the offensive end on their home floor but they aren't going to stop a Warriors team that will go all out in looking to cap a perfect 5-0 road trip. Golden State won't hold back here as they have two off days on deck before facing the Sixers Thursday. Also, the Warriors are seeking revenge for getting swept by the Pacers last season so they won't take their foot off the gas either. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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01-28-19 | Duke v. Notre Dame +14.5 | Top | 83-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - With the Blue Devils off that suffocating effort on defense in their win over the Yellow Jackets Saturday, and the Fighting Irish off a blowout home loss versus Virginia the same day, everyone is lining up on Duke here (line has gone from -13 to -14.5 as of early Monday AM). The Blue Devils did get guard Tre Jones back from injury and that helped them run their full court press against Georgia Tech. However, even though Notre Dame lost senior guard Rex Pflueger to injury earlier this season and have turned to freshman Prentiss Hubb at the point, they still have done a great job of not turning the ball over. To that point, Duke is turning the ball over 13 times per game this season while Notre Dame is averaging only 10 turnovers per game. I like having the big points here with an Irish team that is off a blowout home loss and now facing a Duke team that has been struggling badly with its outside shooting for a few weeks now. From beyond the arc, the Blue Devils have been shooting a very poor percentage. That makes it tough to create a big winning margin in games and it comes as no surprise that Duke is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. By the way, in games in which Tre Jones has played it is an 0-3 ATS run for the Blue Devils! Also, Duke is 0-2 ATS the past two seasons in road games where they are favored in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. When playing with one day or less of rest between games this season the Blue Devils are 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) this season while the Fighting Irish are 2-0 SU. I expect Duke to win this game but by single digits as the Irish give a huge effort after the embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers Saturday. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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01-27-19 | Raptors v. Mavs OVER 219 | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Mavericks games have resulted in unders in 5 straight games and 13 of their last 15. So how I am playing this one? Contrarian of course and going over the total but it is with good reason. First off Dallas has looked much better in their last two games since Dennis Smith Jr returned. He and Luka Doncic give the Mavs a powerful 1-2 punch. As for the Raptors, Kawhi Leonard finally came back after 4 games off. Though the Raptors lost that game at Houston they did put up 119 points. With Toronto entering this game off back to back losses and Leonard able to quickly shake the rust off in his first game back, this one is likely to be played at a great pace with plenty of points. The Raptors have averaged 117 points per game in their last 13 games. They are favored by 5 points here. Toronto winning this game by 117-112 certainly would not come as a surprise and that is a full 10 points over the posted total on this game. The Raptors are 5-1 to the over in games against Southwest Division opponents this season. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the over in Sunday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Dallas |
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01-27-19 | Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 151 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #835 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 5 ET - Iowa is averaging 82 points per game this season. Minnesota is averaging 80 points per game at home this season. The over is a long-term 17-9 when the Hawkeyes are off a Big Ten loss and that includes a perfect 3-0 this season. Also, when on the road in a game with a line ranging from pick'em to +3, Iowa has gone a perfect 3-0 to the over the past two seasons. Minnesota is 4-1 to the over the past two seasons in home games in which their line ranges from pick'em to -3. The Golden Gophers are also 3-0 to the over this season when off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less. Minny goes from facing the Big Ten's top defense (Michigan) to one of the Big Ten's worst (Iowa). The Hawkeyes go from facing a strong Michigan State defense to facing a Gophers D that, prior to the low-scoring grudge match with the Wolverines, had allowed 78 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Golden Gophers are allowing 38% three pointers at home this season and Iowa is a strong team from beyond the arc. This one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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01-26-19 | 76ers v. Nuggets -9 | Top | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 9:05 ET - It is evident the Sixers are treating this as a "throw away" game. Joel Embiid is being given the night off even though Philadelphia has had two days off leading into this game and also has two days off coming up after this game. Jimmy Butler is dealing with a wrist injury that is likely to keep him out of this game. Also, Wilson Chandler is out with a hamstring injury. Of course he would have loved to go against his former team but that is not going to happen. As for his former team, the Nuggets, they are in a back to back spot here BUT it was a home game for Denver last night versus Phoenix and they rolled to an easy win. That 132 to 95 victory was so easy in fact that the Nuggets were able to rest a ton throughout the game. Speaking of fresh legs for tonight, Nikola Jokic did not play last night due to suspension. He is back tonight and will be particularly tough for the Sixers to handle without Embiid on the floor. This really sets up as an all-out rout in which the Nuggets can name the final margin and certainly I expect that margin to be at least a dozen! As I noted above, Philly is essentially conceding this game. Also, the Nuggets got swept by the 76ers last season so they'll keep their foot on the gas in this one. Denver is 17-8 ATS in home games this season. Philadelphia is 9-17 ATS this season after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. They were very fortunate to beat the Spurs Wednesday and now they get blasted here. 10* DENVER |
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01-26-19 | Kansas +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-71 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #705 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 6 ET - I am always happy to back high-quality teams when they are undervalued because the betting markets have turned against them. Keep in mind the betting markets tend to have a short-term memory. That said, there is an anti-Kansas mindset right now because the Jayhawks have covered just 1 of 7 games since the calendar turned the page to 2019. However, Kansas is still a team that is 16-3 SU this season and two of those losses game by 4 points or less! Also, the Jayhawks have played a slightly tougher schedule than Kentucky. But right now it is the Wildcats that are getting the love from bettors not only because of an 8-4 ATS run but 3 straight covers. Again, the short-term memory! Now there is no disputing that Kentucky is a great team but lets not just hand this game to the Wildcats! Kansas has won the turnover battle by a combined 35-23 in their last two meetings. That has helped lead to the Jayhawks having 22 more shot attempts from the field in the last two games (both Kansas wins) in the last two meetings between these highly regarded basketball powerhouses. Kentucky is on a 9-15 ATS run in January games and they are over-priced here, in my opinion, because the Cats are on an ATS run while Kansas is on an overall ATS slide. The fact is, of course, the Jayhawks are highly talented and very well-coached. Of course they can rise up for a game like this and if they do fall short I expect it to only be by a bucket or two. Upset is very possible here! Kansas has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. That is the first time that has happened this season. It happened 3 times in the past two seasons and, every single time, the Jayhawks won and covered their very next game. Look for that to be the result this time as well. 10* KANSAS |
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01-25-19 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 153 | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Butler Bulldogs @ 8:30 ET - The very first number that popped up offshore on this total was a 157 and it has since plummeted to as low as 152.5 in some spots. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the over here but it is, of course, not without reason. First off, Butler is 7-0 to the over this season in conference games. Secondly, Creighton is 3-0 to the over this season when playing with road loss revenge. The Bluejays lost at Butler earlier this month and that game was the 2nd straight in this series that flew over the total. Look for this one to make it 3 in a row. Creighton relies heavily on knocking down their 3-pointers and they are hitting 47.7% from beyond the arc in home games this season. Butler is also having a solid season from 3-point land as the Bulldogs are hitting 37.4% of their threes on the season. In fact, Butler has averaged better than 40% from three point land in their last 4 games and two of those games were on the road as well! Amazingly, the Bluejays have hit 40% or better from three point land in 9 of their 10 home games this season. The lone exception was against Ohio State and they still hit 36% against the Buckeyes! Creighton is loaded with shooters and they particularly like the "run and gun" approach when playing at home. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season in Bluejays games against teams with a winning record. Take advantage of the drop on this total from the opener. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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01-25-19 | Heat v. Cavs OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-94 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #567 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Heat are off back to back games where they were held under 100 points. The last 3 times that Miami has entered a game off back to back games where they scored 101 points or less, the Heat are a perfect 3-0 to the over in their next game. Facing a Cavaliers team that is a horrific 9-40 SU this season and allowing 114 points per game is certain to help Miami's offensive production get back on track. Keep in mind, the over is 2-0 this season Heat games versus the Cavs and Miami averaged 117.5 points in those two games. Also, prior to back to back unders for Miami in a pair of low-scoring losses, the Heat were on a 9-4 run to the over. Cleveland is on a 13-4 run to the over in their last 17 games. Also, the Heat are 8-4 to the over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Miami is also 13-8 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record this season. Cleveland is 8-2 to the over this season in Friday games. Also, the Cavaliers are a long-term 51-25 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Look for Miami to get a big lead in this game and then coast to the win which means a very relaxed game without a lot of intense defense as this game progresses. That should lead to plenty of points and the Heat, off back to back losses, aren't going to slow down here even with a big lead. Take advantage of the low total posted on this one. Yesterday this total was high as a 211.5 when it first was coming up. It's dropped a bucket from there and was already a great value at that number. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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01-24-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 237 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Anthony Davis is still out for the Pelicans. While the first two games he missed both resulted in unders I expect that trend to reverse here. Davis is one of the top defensive big men in the league and his absence will have the Thunder attacking the rim early and often in this one. Oklahoma City has been on a scoring tear and they love to play run and gun so I also don't expect too much of a concern from the Thunder in terms of paying attention to defense on the other end of the floor. In other words, this one results in a high-scoring shootout. The over is 5-2 this season when New Orleans is playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the over is 7-1 in OKC's last 8 games overall. Though this total may seem too big, note that the Thunder are 10-3 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Oklahoma City did lose at New Orleans last month so they are seeking revenge here and they are the healthier team (since Davis is out). That being the case, and catching the Pelicans in a back to back, I have no doubt that the Thunder will employ a game plan of running N.O. up and down the court all game long. Also, since it is a revenge game, OKC won't take their foot off the gas either and that means a ton of points scored in this one. Also, the Thunder have two off days on deck after this game so there is no holding back in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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01-24-19 | Memphis v. Temple OVER 157.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #609 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Memphis Tigers @ 7 ET - The very first total that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon was a 160 and not surprisingly the under starting getting hit and it has dropped as low as a 157.5 this morning. The fact is that this total may seem too big but Temple is at home and is going to get big points here but the problem is they are one of the worst teams in the AAC in a number of defensive categories. One they do excel in is steals which of course leads to a lot of transition points. However, a gambling mentality on defense (going for those steals) also can lead to open looks and easy scoring opportunities for the opposition when Temple fails to get the steal. Facing a Memphis team that is the top scoring team in the AAC means this game is going to be played with a great tempo for over players. The Tigers are averaging 84 points per game this season. The Owls are a 5 point favorite here. If Memphis hits their average and Temple wins by the margin the odds maker is suggesting you've got an 89-84 game that crushes the posted total by 15 points here. In other words, we've got some value here with this total in my opinion. The Tigers love to play up tempo basketball and the Owls will be happy to oblige on their home floor. Temple, prior to their 77-70 loss to Penn, had scored over 80 points in 4 of their last 6 home games. Memphis, other than neutral court games, has scored at least 76 points in every single game this season! That is another way to look at this total too. If the Tigers hit that mark of 76 (they've never failed to at home or in a true road game this season) and the Owls win by 5, you're already at 157 points here. Again, you can see why I am liking the value here in a game that many will perceive to have "too high" of a total. Memphis is 8-4 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Owls, since the calendar turned the page to 2019, have gone a perfect 6-0 to the over. Look for 7 straight here! 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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01-23-19 | Spurs v. 76ers -4 | Top | 120-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #548 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers got blasted at San Antonio on December 17th when the Spurs caught Philly in the 2nd night of a back to back and, of course, away from home. This situation is much different now with the 76ers at home and having not had any back to backs recently plus not having any games on deck again until Saturday when a Western road swing begins. Philadelphia, in fact, will not be at home again for nearly two weeks to tonight they certainly want to "make this one count" and I foresee them getting payback at home. Finally Joel Embiid is not even listed on the injury report plus Jimmy Butler (wrist) was at practice yesterday. Ben Simmons (illness) was not but I don't see him missing this game with two full off days on deck after this. Look for the training staff to have Simmons ready to go here and it should be "all hands on deck" for Philly. Note that 76ers head coach Brett Brown and assistant coach Monty Williams both worked for the Spurs prior to coming to Philadelphia. Brown logged 11 seasons as an assistant coach under Popovich from 2002 to 2013. Williams not only played for the Spurs from 1996 to 1998, he also later served as vice president of basketball operations from 2016 to 2018 in San Antonio. The point is that there is plenty of incentive here for both the players and coaches to respond after that embarrassing loss in mid-December in SA. The Spurs enter this game on a 2-5 SU (and ATS) run. The Sixers are 28-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The 76ers also are 31-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-23-19 | Tennessee -8.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 88-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #803 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers @ Vanderbilt Commodores @ 7 ET - Tennessee opened up favored by about a dozen points here. The line has dropped all the way down to as low as an 8.5 this morning as Vanderbilt is getting plenty of attention here as a home dog against their biggest rival and a foe that is currently the #1 team in the country! I also understand that the Commodores have defeated the Volunteers the last two times they have faced them in Nashville. Additionally, I am aware of the fact that the last time Tennessee rose to a #1 ranking their next game was at Vanderbilt and they lost! This was in 2018 but the Commodores were a #18 ranked team that season. This team is much weaker this season especially because their offense is having all sorts of issues without point guard Darius Garland (out for the season). Vandy is not shooting well at all and they are a young team that makes many mistakes. Conversely, Tennessee was on fire from the field before not shooting well in their tight win over the Crimson Tide Saturday. However, the Vols blew a 15 points lead against Alabama in that game so it is not as if it was a tight game all the way. Plus you saw that the Tide are a solid team after they thrashed a ranked Ole Miss team last night. After already having had their "scare" against the Crimson Tide and also being plenty wary of the Commodores, I look for the Volunteers to roll on the road in this one. The Vols are the much more experienced team and they are the much better team offensively. Vandy simply won't be able to keep up here. In terms of technical support, the Volunteers are 18-9 ATS in road games including a perfect 3-0 this season. Vanderbilt is 3-7 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record and also a long-term 2-7 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. 10* TENNESSEE |
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01-22-19 | Blazers v. Thunder OVER 228 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - The Blazers are off a win at Utah last night that stayed under the total. Of course Jazz games are known for trending toward being lower scoring match-ups. However Portland was on a 5-1 run to the over entering last night's contest and I fully expect the high-scoring ways to resume at Oklahoma City tonight. Why? Because the Thunder certainly have been in run and gun mode for an extended stretch. With their big win at New York yesterday afternoon, OKC is on a 6-1 run to the over. Also, the Thunder are on a 13-6 run to the over this season as a home favorite. With this game played at a good pace and with some weary legs on defense considering this is a back to back spot, look for little resistance from the D for long stretches in this one. The recent over trending of both teams resumes in this one Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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01-22-19 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky OVER 144.5 | Top | 55-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Two very talented teams matched up here and they are loaded with balanced scoring. I don't see the Bulldogs as being able to slow down the Wildcats scorers at Kentucky. In fact the over is 5-0 in Mississippi State's last 5 road games at Kentucky. Though the Bulldogs won't be able to stop the Cats here, note that Mississippi State ranks 2nd in the SEC for number of 3-pointers made this season. Both of these teams have been lighting it up overall from the floor as well as from beyond the arc. Kentucky is averaging 80 points per game and the Bulldogs are averaging 79 points per game this season. Yes there will be some defensive intensity in this key SEC battle but note that this can also lead to turnovers and quick transition points and both of these teams have been lethal at making teams pay for mistakes. Overall, Mississippi State enters this game having gone 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games. Another key factor here is that the spread on this game has the Wildcats favored by about a half dozen points. This game is indeed likely to be quite close late and that means plenty of late fouls and trips the free throw line could result as the trailing team won't give up without a fight. Again, the ability of each team to knock down threes will also be key at that late stage in the game should we need "scramble points" like this in the final minutes. 10* OVER the total in Kentucky |
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01-21-19 | Rockets v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #524 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off a tough last-second loss to the Thunder on Saturday. Conversely, the Rockets are off an OT win and that was preceded by an OT loss. Look for Philly to take advantage of a Houston team that may not have a lot left in the tank after their big OT win over the Lakers Saturday. Additionally, the Sixers have been playing much better defense of late in comparison with the Rockets. Philadelphia has allowed just 41.5% from the field in their last 4 games. Houston has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to defensive play in their last 3 games. The Rockets have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field! Also, Houston is still without Chris Paul and Clint Capela. As of early this morning Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable for the Sixers but it is with right wrist soreness and I expect he'll be upgraded to probable after this morning's shootaround. Also, 76ers big man Joel Embiid is probable with his continuing back issues. On that note, it has helped Philly that they haven't had any back to back situations recently and won't have one again until mid-February. The healthier team, the more rested team, the home team, and looking for revenge for losing last year's contest here versus the Rockets by a single point...all signs point to Philly getting a solid home win in this one. Houston is 1-6 ATS after a game in which they scored 130 points or more this season. The 76ers are 27-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season and also 30-9 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. All Sixers in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-21-19 | Nebraska v. Rutgers OVER 134.5 | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I lost with Nebraska on Thursday when their much improved offense fell short against the stifling defense of Michigan State. After that result, I had a strong feeling I would be involved with the Cornhuskers again in their very next game and, sure enough, we've got great value here. The value in this one lies with the total. I know that this series with Rutgers has a recent history of staying under the total but Nebraska is going to have a breakout game on offense in this one but I am not about to lay a double digit spread on the road. This is one of those solid situations for an over as the road team is the superior team and highly motivated off a loss while the lesser team is at home where, as usual, most poor teams tend to score better. Rutgers will "get theirs" tonight but they're not going to be able to stop a Nebraska team that is averaging 77.7 points per game this season. Keep mind, the Scarlet Knights defense has not been as strong this season as it was last year and they're giving up a higher percentage on outside shots. The over is 3-0 this season when Nebraska is off a Big Ten loss. Prior to the Huskers ugly effort on offense versus the Spartans, they had shot 44% or better from the field in 12 straight games! The over was 5-1 this season in Rutgers Big Ten games before their low-scoring home loss to Northwestern. Including the loss to the Wildcats, the Scarlet Knights are allowing 75 points per game in Big Ten action this season. The Knights do shoot a little better when at home, the game versus Northwestern an exception, but they've also been getting lit up from beyond the arc and, overall, allowed 48% or higher from the field in 3 of their 4 games prior to the loss to the Wildcats. Look for the Huskers to get a big lead in this game and, because of being off a loss, they'll keep their foot on the gas but it is also natural to relax on defense with a big lead. The result should be a game that gets well into the 140s. 10* OVER the total in Rutgers |
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01-20-19 | Suns v. Wolves OVER 227 | Top | 114-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:05 ET - The Timberwolves are playing this game with revenge and that is a situation that has seen the over go 15-7 this season. The Suns are in a tough back to back spot as they were at Charlotte yesterday where they got crushed and allowed 135 points. This is nothing new as it has been a miserable season for Phoenix and they've allowed 121 points per game in their last 6 road games. The Wolves need a huge win to bounce back after back to back losses and with the Suns putting up little resistance, Minnesota can essentially name the score here. It will be a high-scoring win (likely by double digits as you can see with the big line posted on this game) for the Wolves in a run and gun type game. The over is 14-2 in the Timberwolves last 16 games and I expect another one here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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01-20-19 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 147 | Top | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #817 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston College Eagles vs Florida State Seminoles @ Noon ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. I also like having the lesser team, Boston College, at home in a situation like this. The Eagles should be able to score well since they're on their home floor but they have very little chance of slowing down the Seminoles in this one. That's because Boston College is a weak team defensively and Florida State enters this game off a loss and looking for a breakout game offensively. The Noles have faced tough match-ups recently at Pittsburgh, versus Duke, and at Virginia. Now the Seminoles can take advantage of facing a weaker foe with weaker defense. The over is 4-1 in Boston College's last 5 games. Also, the Eagles are 12-3 to the over when they enter game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Overall, BC is on a long-term run of 25-10 to the over in home games. Florida State found it tough to score this season in only 3 games: at Pittsburgh, at Virginia, and on a neutral floor versus Villanova. In their other 14 games this season the Seminoles have averaged 82 points per game this season. They are a 7 point favorite. In other words if FSU scores like they normally do and the odds makers is right about the spread you have yourself an 82-75 type game which means this one should fly over by double digits. I'll take it. 10* OVER the total in Boston College |
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01-19-19 | Virginia v. Duke OVER 136.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 6 ET - Once again the odds makers made a HUGE mistake, right? You guys know how I feel about the odds makers. Tremendous respect for the quality numbers they put out on games. That said, the last two meetings between these teams totaled just 120 points and 128 points. Yet, even though the Blue Devils also lost point guard Tre Jones to injury in their most recent game, this total opened up at a 140! The odds makers really screwed up, right? Hardly! The fact is people don't fully think about such things and Jones, even as described by his head coach, is a "defensive catalyst". On the flip side, in terms of offensive production, Duke is expected to have Cam Reddish back for this game and of course the Blue Devils are loaded with great offensive production including freshmen RJ Barrett (23.4 ppg) and Zion Williamson (21.2 ppg) - the two leading scorers in the ACC. Well aware of the Cavaliers defensive prowess but the Blue Devils have still averaged 64 points per game in their last two games against Virginia. Also, playing with home loss revenge from last season and arguably as dynamic as their offense has been this season, I look for the Blue Devils to get into the 70s in this one and Virginia will be right there with them! The Cavs are undefeated this season thanks, in part, to an offense that has averaged 74 points per game thus far. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Virginia's ACC games this season. The Blue Devils are 13-6 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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01-19-19 | Thunder v. 76ers -2 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:35 ET - The Sixers Joel Embiid is again on the injury report here as he continues to deal with a sore back. However, he got better in the 2nd half of Philadelphia's dominating win at Indiana on Thursday. The fact is I really don't see Embiid missing much time again until back to back type situations crop up again for Philly and that is not until mid-February. He should be ready to go here and, either way, I like the small number we're getting on the 76ers in this one as they are on their floor and hosting a Thunder team that is stuck in a slump. Oklahoma City has lost 5 of its last 6 games. Conversely, Philadelphia has won 7 of its last 9 games. Also, the Sixers defense has kicked into high gear in its last 3 games. As for OKC, their defense has been atrocious over their last 4 games. Additionally, the Thunder are a long-term 3-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. This season Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS after a loss by a double digit margin. The Sixers are a long-term 69-40 ATS in home games. Additionally, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game, Philly is 27-10 ATS. When past the midway point of a season and facing a team that scores 106 points or more per game, the 76ers are 30-8 ATS. Look for a home rout in this day game Saturday. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-18-19 | Heat +2 v. Pistons | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Friday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Heat just got blasted by 38 points on Tuesday at Milwaukee. The Pistons are off a dramatic overtime win versus the Magic on Wednesday. Set ups simply don't get much better than this. Miami is angry and ready to bounce back and all the stuff you're reading about guys saying stuff complaining about playing time will be turned into positive aggressive energy in this game. When you get embarrassed like the Heat players did on Tuesday against the Bucks, you respond! Also, the Pistons are only 2 games over .500 at home this season. It is not a huge edge for Detroit to be at home. Additionally, the Heat have been a better team on the road than at home this season and do have a winning record away from Miami. The Pistons were 3-10 SU in their 13 games prior to the OT win over the Magic. The Heat were 10-4 SU in their 14 games prior to getting blasted by the Bucks. Also, Miami is 6-1 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season and also a superb 14-6 ATS as an underdog this season. The Pistons are 14-24 ATS (including 5-8 ATS this season) when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these teams and that streak adds another W on Friday! 10* MIAMIÂ |
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01-18-19 | Maryland +3 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #851 Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6:30 ET - This is a match-up of two teams going opposite directions and that means it is not going to be easy for the Buckeyes to turn things around. The Terrapins have been down big early in games and still found a way to win. Maryland has also had huge leads in games and then blown it in the 2nd half and still found a way to win. That is how a young team builds character and this Terps team is proving they are the real deal. They are 15-3 on the season and the 3 losses ALL came by 5 points or less. In other words there is no way to look at this match-up other than the fact that Maryland will, worst case scenario, be a threat to cover in the final minutes. However, I foresee them actually winning this game outright rather handily. The Buckeyes are struggling to find the right floor combinations with their players and the result has been ugly and confidence is now shaken after 3 straight losses. Granted Ohio State faced some tough competition but Maryland has also played just as tough of a schedule this season. Additionally, the "kicker" for me with this play is that the Terrapins got blasted by 22 points in last season's meeting. How did that happen? The Buckeyes outscored the Terps by 27 points from three point land because they made a ridiculous 58.6% of their three pointers. Of course had that not happened Ohio State loses the game by 5 points. You can see where I am going with this and the point is the Buckeyes are so discombobulated right now they truly are not functioning well enough to have some huge shooting game here. They are a mess. Ohio State is on an 0-3 SU run and 0-4 ATS run. Maryland has won 6 straight games SU. The Terrapins are set to improve to 5-0 ATS in road games this season while the Buckeyes shooting woes are unlikely to improve after a long layoff. From a technical standpoint that factor is also supported by this: Ohio State is 0-6 ATS when they enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The road dog is barking loudly in this one and Coach Mark Turgeon gets revenge after his Terps were embarrassed here in Columbus by the Buckeyes and Coach Chris Holtmann in his first year with Ohio State last season. Payback time and the set up and current momentum of these teams make it an ideal situation. 10* MARYLAND |
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01-17-19 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +2.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #634 Thursday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 8 ET - When the betting masses have the opportunity to take one of the top ranked teams in the nation at nearly a pick'em price against an unranked foe, they tend to jump all over it. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side in a situation like this and taking advantage of the extra value offered by the line move in a spot like this. One of the big keys here is that Michigan State is still without guard Joshua Langord and another key player, guard Kyle Ahrens may be out again for this game or, at the very least, limited. That said the Cornhuskers are likely to hold a key edge in the backcourt in this match-up as they have big guards and have a size edge over the Spartans. This is especially true given the current injury situation in the Michigan State backcourt. In terms of some technical value here: the Spartans, versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games, have gone 5-8 ATS the past two seasons. The Huskers, versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games, have gone 8-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons. The Cornhuskers have won 20 straight games at home and Michigan State is facing the tough task of trying to win back to back road games and are now facing the stingiest D (60.8 ppg) in the Big Ten other than Michigan. Look for the home dog to get the upset in this one. 10* NEBRASKA |
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01-17-19 | 76ers +3 v. Pacers | Top | 120-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
TNT Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Early movement was on Indiana here as the Pacers (15-5 SU in home games) opened up as only a 2.5 points favorite over a 76ers team that is 10-12 SU in road games this season. It's easy, right folks? Ladies and gentlemen, it is never easy in this business and this is precisely the type of situation I look for. Looks like easy money on the small home favorite an you know what usually happens when something looks easy in this business! The fact is that the 76ers are playing with a ton of confidence right now and are also seeking revenge for a home loss versus the Pacers last month. That game in fact marked the 3rd straight time in this series that the road team has won and covered. Look for that streak to make it 4-0 here! The Sixers are an incredible 29-8 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is also 33-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Pacers are just 2-5 ATS their last 7 games. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-16-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Wednesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Now that we are past the midway point of the season teams are certainly already beginning to look at the playoff picture. That said, both these teams are just outside the top 8 in the Eastern Conference and this game carries plenty of extra meaning as a result. This situation favors the Magic. We're able to get a handful of points with Orlando and they were at home and have had two days off and are playing with plenty of confidence after beating the Rockets and Celtics in their last two games. Conversely, the Pistons are playing their first game back East after a long road trip out west and Detroit has had only one day off between games. From a technical standpoint, note that the Pistons are a poor 4-9 SU and ATS when off a non-conference game. The Magic are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The road dog stays hot in this one and, should they fall short, look for it to be by just a bucket. 10* ORLANDO |
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01-16-19 | Iowa v. Penn State OVER 140 | Top | 89-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - We're getting line value here for a couple of key reasons. One is that the Hawkeyes Tyler Cook is likely a game-time decision and he leads the team in points and rebounds. I expect him to play but, even if he doesn't, Ryan Kriener has been playing much more recently and has now averaged double figures in 3 of his last 4 games. Iowa is averaging 81.7 points per game this season and has plenty of firepower. The other reason we've seen the posted total on this game drop (and another reason we're getting line value) is because the Nittany Lions have been in a scoring slump in Big Ten play. For one thing their games have included Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Those are 3 of the tougher defenses to face in the conference. Certainly Iowa does not fit into that category and note that Penn State coach Pat Chambers even said he wants to play fast and he wants to see his team scoring 70+ points per game like it often did last season. Considering that fact as well as this game being at home and facing another team that also doesn't mind playing fast, I am expecting plenty of points in this one. The over is 3-0 when Iowa's line ranges from pick to +3 and also the over is 9-3 when the Hawkeyes line ranges from pick to -3. You can see we're in that sweet spot here and the over is also on a 16-6 run in Iowa's January games. The over is 11-6 when Penn State, in game 15 or later in a season, is facing a team that averages 77 points or more per game. Also, the Nittany Lions Wednesday games are 10-4 to the over. 10* OVER in Penn State |
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01-15-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6 | Top | 107-149 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers Jimmy Butler is facing his former team and Philly will take advantage of a Timberwolves team that is hurting. Minnesota will be, at the very least, hobbled in this one but could also be short-handed. The problem is a cluster injury situation as both injuries are at the point guard position. Starting PG Jeff Teague and veteran PG Derrick Rose are both listed as questionable for this game with ankle injuries. Keep in mind that the Wolves are an ugly 6-15 SU on the road this season while Philadelphia is a stellar 18-4 SU in home game this season. That said, a Sixers home victory is quite likely but what about the all-important spread factor? It should get there for us! 16 of Minny's last 20 losses have come by a margin of at least a half dozen points! Also, note that Minnesota is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. The 76ers are off a tight win at New York but are 8-2 SU and ATS when off a divisional game this season. Also, the Sixers are a long-term 22-11 SU (and 21-12 ATS) in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Look for a home blowout here! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-15-19 | Seton Hall +2 v. Providence | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - This line opened up at a pick'em and it is also a revenge game for the Friars. That said, it comes as no surprise that bettors jumped on Providence at home and the line is now up to a -2 on the Friars. I am happy to grab the extra value with another contrarian play. The key here is that Providence has had trouble with their shooting and that is why they sorely miss freshman phenom (and 2nd leading scorer) AJ Reeves. The Friars have now lost 3 straight games and are coming off a heart-breaking double-OT loss at Georgetown. Of course those types of defeats are very tough to bounce back from. Also, Providence is starting to develop a "losers mentality" as that is what happens when you lose 3 straight tight games in conference action and you're missing one of your best players. Seton Hall will pounce on this and be very aggressive and take advantage tonight. Keep in mind, the Pirates have thrived in situations like this. Seton Hall is a perfect 6-0 ATS in games with a line ranging from pick'em to +3 and all 6 wins were outright upsets! As for the Friars, they've gone 4-8 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. That includes Providence going 1-3 ATS this season when in that situation. The teams are roughly equivalent on the defensive end but the Pirates hold the edge on the offensive end as the Friars continue to struggle with consistency on the offensive end as they continue to adjust to life without Reeves. He will be back but not yet! Seton Hall is off a loss and they haven't lost back to back games since mid-November. By the way, the Pirates last 4 losses have come by average margin of just 3 points. The points could come in handy here but I fully expect an outright win as the Pirates bounce back off a defeat. 10* SETON HALL |
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01-14-19 | Celtics -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 102-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics have a big game at home with Toronto on deck for Wednesday. However, there is no way they're looking past this game. That's because this is the finale of a 3-game road trip that has seen Boston go winless so far. The Celtics are hungry for a win and the Nets should provide the perfect punching bag for Boston to take out their frustrations after back to back losses at Miami and Orlando. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Nets enter this game having won 4 of their last 6 games. However, Brooklyn is 6-12 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Also, the Nets are just 4-7 ATS this season when off a road loss and they just got smashed at Toronto Friday. Also, Brooklyn has a long history of struggles versus the Celtics and the Nets are on a long losing streak versus Boston. If Kyrie Irving (questionable) does not play tonight, Terry Dozier will get the start and he has played better as a starter compared to when coming off the bench. Either way the Celtics are a much more stacked team in comparison with the Nets. Brooklyn has lost 13 of 19 games this season when facing a team with a winning record. Celtics respond big off back to back losses here. 10* BOSTON |
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01-14-19 | Nebraska +3 v. Indiana | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Monday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 6:30 ET - The very first lines that popped up on this game offshore Sunday afternoon had Hoosiers -1 and, not surprisingly, the betting masses jumped on Indiana at home and this line is now up to as high as a -3 as of early Monday morning. Of course I am contrarian and grabbing the road dog here. This game was priced this way originally with good reason as the Cornhuskers are the better team. I am well aware of the fact that the Hoosiers have been strong at home and the Huskers have had some struggles on the road. However, this is not going to go on forever and Nebraska is going to make a statement in this game. The Cornhuskers have beaten the Hoosiers in each of the last two meetings. Also, Nebraska is 15-8 ATSÂ as a road underdog or pick in recent seasons. The Huskers did win at Oklahoma State and Clemson and lost by just 2 points at Maryland. Indiana has been strong at home this season but, keep in mind, the Hoosiers won by just 2 points versus Northwestern and only 1 point versus Louisville. Indiana is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games but 4 of those 7 wins have come by 3 or less points. Again, there is value with having the dog here in an game in which Nebraska (preseason projections just behind Michigan State and Michigan in the Big Ten) has a great shot at the upset. The Hoosiers are just 4-8 ATS in recent seasons in games versus good defensive teams (allowing 64 points or less per game). 10* NEBRASKA |
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01-13-19 | Michigan State v. Penn State +8.5 | Top | 71-56 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #836 Sunday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 4:30 ET - The Nittany Lions are a much better team than their record shows. That said, there is great home dog value here with Penn State. After getting blown out by Wisconsin, PSU responded with a strong effort at Nebraska. Keep in mind, the Lions have been very competitive in nearly all their defeats this season except for the Badgers game. That said, though the Spartans have continue to play great even with Joshua Langford out, this is going to be a hard-fought game Sunday. The Nittany Lions are desperate for a Big Ten win and the home crowd will be ready for hosting one of the top teams in the nation. Will be a great atmosphere for Penn State to excel and they are well-coached under Patrick Chambers. Also note that Langord's back-up, junior Kyle Ahrens, is also dealing with an injury right now. The Spartans have been great at the betting window this season but went just 6-12 ATS in road games the prior two seasons and they are over-priced here. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games in a season. Technical and situational value here with the home dog. 10* PENN STATE |
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01-13-19 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 230.5 | Top | 133-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - Once again the Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable for this game and, hopefully, unlike Friday that will not change before game time and burn me. But either way, I look for the Bucks (Greek Freak or not) to have their foot firmly on the gas from the opening tip all the way to the final horn in this one. Milwaukee is off a loss at Washington and will take advantage of facing one of the worst teams in the league here. Of course that is why they are a double digit favorite but I don't like laying double digits on the road in the NBA and also feel Atlanta (off a big road win) will be able to stay hot and put up plenty of points in this one as they are back on their home floor. Of course at first glance this total looked a little on the high side when it opened up. This has caused the markets to move it down some and in typical contrarian fashion I am taking advantage of the additional value on the high side of this one. The fact is that the odds makers set this total big for a reason and I concur because the Bucks are going to push the tempo all game long and look to put a white-washing on the Hawks. The over is 26-15 when Milwaukee is off an upset loss as a favorite. The over is 13-8 in Bucks Sunday games. The over is a long-term 29-17 in Hawks games against Central Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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01-12-19 | Pistons v. Clippers -7 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 3:35 ET - The Clippers are off a blowout loss at Denver but previously were on an 8-2 ATS run. Now facing the slumping Pistons at home should allow the Clippers to get right back on track. Detroit did win at Los Angeles last season so the Clips also have some extra motivation but truly they don't even need that extra incentive considering they are off the bad loss to the Nuggets. The Pistons enter this game on a 2-9 SU and ATS run and they've allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field. In fact the composite of those three games was a field goal allowance rate of 54% for Detroit. Of course that kind of defense is not going to get the job done and that is particularly true when the opponent (in this case the Clippers) has held their last two opponents at home to 40% or less from the floor. Detroit is 2-9 ATS when off a non-conference game. Los Angeles is a superb 17-6 ATS this season as a favorite. Also, the Clippers are 11-3 ATS this season in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Clips take advantage of facing a struggling foe and this is something they've been doing all season long. LA is 12-3 SU (and 11-4 ATS) this season in games against teams with a losing record. Another home rout is in the offing here. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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01-12-19 | Drexel +4 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 83-97 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #649 Saturday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (+) @ NC-Wilmington Seahawks @ 2 ET - This line is going to look a little "off" to those that don't follow college hoops very closely. I say that because the Seahawks have hammered the Dragons by a double digit margin in each of the last two meetings at NC-Wilmington. That said, many may feel it is a mistake that the Seahawks are priced so low here on their home floor but there is much more than meets the eye here. First off Drexel has enough size and bulk in the middle to help counter the Seahawks top weapon Davontae Cacock. Additionally, the Dragons just welcomed back point guard Kurk Lee. He was one of their top players last season and in addition to returning starters Alihan Demir and senior guard Troy Harper, Drexel has seen others step up while Lee has been out. Trevor John, Camren Wynter, and James Butler are combining to contribute 33 points per game. That said, Lee and Demir and Harper are all guys that can contribute 15 points a night. The Dragons are still flying "under the radar" right now but are truly the better team in this match-up as the Seahawks have been "on the fade" this season. In terms of technical support, the Dragons are 6-2 ATS in games with a posted total in the 160s. Also, Drexel has gone 3-1 SU and ATS this season in games against teams with a losing record. NC-Wilmington is 2-5 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 160s. Also, the Seahawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams that allow 77 points or more per game. In a game projected to be a shootout, you can see why the situation favors the road dog. 10* DREXEL |
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01-11-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #545 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks are a red hot 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and they're certainly not going to slow down here. Being on the road is helping Milwaukee to stay focused and up next is a game at Atlanta so certainly there is no lookahead here. The Bucks also have extra motivation because the Wizards won the most recent meeting and that game was on Milwaukee's home floor. In fact, road dominance has been the theme in recent meetings between these foes as the away team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS and I'll gladly take advantage of the extra line value here since the typical "home factor" is factored into this line even though there has been no home court edge in recent meetings between these teams. The Wizards are off a ridiculously strong shooting performance against the Sixers in their most recent game. Off that huge upset win they'll fall flat here and the Bucks have too much talent and will pull away big as this game goes on and win it by double digits. Milwaukee is 6-2 SU and ATS in Friday night games this season. Washington is 0-9 SU (and 1-8 ATS) in Friday night games this season. Also, the Wizards are 1-5 SU and ATS this season against Central Division opponents. Last but not least, Washington is a poor 1-4 ATS this season when off an upset win as an underdog. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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01-11-19 | Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #804 Northern Kentucky Norse (-) vs Wright State Raiders @ 7 ET - This is the only home game for the Norse between December 30th and January 24th. There is no doubt that Northern Kentucky wants to take advantage of this opportunity and who better to welcome to town than Wright State. The Norse have big-time revenge on their minds here as they won the regular season title in the Horizon League last season but they lost both games against the Raiders. They want payback here and I like the added line value here with this line dropping as of early game day morning. We can lay a rather small number to have the better defense and the home team in this match-up. Northern Kentucky has held opponents to 39.6% from the field this season while Wright State has allowed 46.3% from the field so far this season. Keep in mind, this is even with playing very similar early season schedules. Also, from 3-point land the Norse are allowing just 28.7% while the Raiders are allowing 39.5% from beyond the arc! Wright State is 1-5 SU (and 2-4 ATS) in road games this season. The Norse are 30-4 SU (and 23-11 ATS) in games the past 2+ seasons against teams with a losing record. 10* NORTHERN KENTUCKY |
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01-10-19 | Celtics -125 v. Heat | Top | 99-115 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) @ Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics are such a small favorite here (-2) as of early game day morning, I would recommend playing the money line for those of you that have access to it. Even though this is a back to back spot for Boston, any concern about that is mitigated by the fact that last night's home win versus Miami was a blowout victory that allowed guys plenty of rest. There was not a single Celtic that played more than 29 minutes and most played 24 minutes or less. Since the calendar turned the page to 2019, Boston appears refocused and rejuvenated. With last night's win over the Pacers, the Celtics are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the new year and I fully expect their run to continue tonight. The Heat are on an 0-3 ATS run and we have a big coaching edge here with Boston's Brad Stevens over Miami's Erick Spoelstra. The Celtics, surprisingly, have suffered a tight loss in each of their last two games against the Heat - once in Boston and once in Miami. That said, payback is on order here! The Celtics are on a 21-9 SU run (and 19-11 ATS) in January games. Keep in mind too, the Atlantic Division is much stronger than the Southeast Division. The Heat are a 19-28 SU against Atlantic Division opponents while the Celtics are 33-16 SU against Southeast Division opponents. That includes Miami 2-4 SU this season and Boston 4-2 SU this season respectively. In a game where it is basically a matter of "pick the winner" with no spread involved I am grabbing the surging Celtics as the Heat drop to 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games while road team stays perfect in the New Year! 10* BOSTON |
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01-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa +6 | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Thursday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Home court means a lot in this match-up. More on that in a moment but first off the motivation factor. Two years ago the Golden Hurricane got crushed by the Bearcats in the AAC Tourney by a score of 80-61. As a result, the rematch last season at Cincinnati was a revenge game for Tulsa and the Golden Hurricane did play very well in that game and actually led at the half. However, the Bearcats ultimately prevailed by an 8 point margin but that was thanks to an absolutely insane shooting performance from 3-point land. Cincy made 15 of 22 (68.3%) three-pointers! Of course that is not happening again this season and this time the teams are meeting at Tulsa. I like the fact that the Golden Hurricane returned some key cogs from last season's team plus are getting some key contributions from unexpected sources so far this season. They have looked stronger than expected early this season and the Golden Hurricane are 9-0 SU in home games! The Bearcats are 0-3 ATS in true road games this season and 2 of of those were outright losses. I am expecting another one here but am grabbing the points with Tulsa as added insurance. Long-term Cincinnati is on a 1-4 ATS run in road games with a total in a range between 130 and 134.5 points. The Golden Hurricane are 3-1 ATS as home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points and all 3 wins were outright upsets! This will be a hard-fought battle where having the points is truly invaluable. The Golden Hurricane want this game badly and have the talent to get it on their home floor. If they fall short, I expect it to be by the slimmest of the margins and that means we still cash our ticket! 10* TULSA |
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01-09-19 | Bucks -116 v. Rockets | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Wednesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - First off just want to mention this line, as of very early Wednesday morning, currently has the Bucks as a 1 to 1.5 point favorite. However for as low as nickel more (-115 price range) you can play Milwaukee on the money line just to get the SU win which is certainly what I would recommend doing for those of you with access to it. The Rockets are in a flat spot here as Houston just knocked off the Western Conference leading Nuggets on Monday. They did that thanks to hitting a ridiculous 22 of 47 three-pointers. Denver actually won the battle of the boards in that game and had 17 more shots from the field for the game but Houston simply hit a ridiculously high percentage of threes. That is unlikely to be repeated and, keep in mind, this is a Rockets backcourt that is still without Chris Paul and Eric Gordon. The hungry Bucks (lost both games versus Houston last season) will take advantage for the big road win. Both these teams give up a lot of points but note that Milwaukee is 21-8 SU this season against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. The Rockets are only 14-14 SU this season with that same parameter. Why expect Houston's shooting to go flat here? They are 4-8 ATS this season after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Bucks are 26-8 SU in games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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01-09-19 | Houston v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #788 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 7 ET - As long-time followers know I love to go contrarian and if you looked up contrarian in a sports betting dictionary that included an example, this game would be the perfect example. The Cougars are 15-0 this season and ranked. So the odds makers opened this game at very nearly a "pick'em" even though Houston still has not lost a game this season. Now, do you really think the odds makers are stupid? Of course they are not! They know, just as well as sharps like me know, this is a great spot for the Cougars to lose their first game. So while the masses are likely to back Houston as "they can't lose...they're undefeated, etc" the sharp money (including mine) is on the Owls. Why Temple? First off a road trip to Philly is NOT easy for Houston but certainly they made it look easy last year when EVERYTHING went their way and NOTHING went Temple's way in a blowout win by 21 points in February. The Owls haven't forgotten that home beatdown. Additionally, though Temple is "only" 11-3 this season while Houston is a sparkling 15-0, the Owls have played a much tougher early season schedule. That pays off BIG in this game and the home court helps key the win! The Cougars are 2-0 SU in road games this season but went just 12-10 SU away from home the past two seasons. The Owls are a solid 21-11 SU in lined home games the past 2+ seasons and that includes 5-0 SU this season. Give me a highly motivated home dog that is eager to give a conference foe the first blemish on their record this season. 10* TEMPLE |
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01-08-19 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Last night the Nuggets saw the Rockets hit a ridiculously high percentage of their 3-points as Houston went 22 of 47 from downtown while Denver only made 7 of 29 from beyond the arc. That said, the team with the best record in the Western Conference went down in flames despite outrebounding the Rockets by double digits and despite having 17 more field goal attempts in the game. When you get outscored by 45 from three point land it is hard to win. Suffice to say that is not happening again tonight and I fully expect the Nuggets to bounce right back. The Nuggets were 16-4 SU in their 20 games prior to last night's loss by a dozen points. Denver now visits a Miami team that is only 3-3 SU their last 6 games and has covered only 2 of the 6 games. The Heat play in the weaker Eastern Conference and the particularly weak Southeast Division. Miami is 0-4 SU and ATS in Tuesday games this season. The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in Tuesday games this season and tonight they will improve to 5-2 SU and ATS in games against Southeast Division opponents. 10* DENVER |
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01-08-19 | St. John's v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #626 Tuesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs St John's Red Storm @ 7 ET - The Red Storm are off to a great start this season and are ranked. However, they are now in the wrong place at the wrong time. Keep in mind, St John's (14-1) has played a much weaker schedule than Villanova (11-4) so far this season. Also, the Wildcats (accustomed to being the top team in the Big East) are now unranked while the Red Storm are ranked! Give credit to St John's for their strong start to this season for sure. However, Villanova not only is more battle-tested (long-term and this season due to tougher schedule), the Wildcats also have big-time revenge here. Last season in February Villanova lost at home to St John's as a 16 point home favorite. Suffice to say payback is on their minds here. The Red Storm simply had a great shooting night and also caught the Cats in a situation where they were back on the heels. Tuesday you can back on Nova being the team that is putting their opponent back on their heels! The Red Storm have gone just 14-23 ATS (including 2-5 ATS this season) in games with a posted total in the 140s and they simply won't be able to keep up with the revenge-minded Wildcats in this one. Villanova improves to 8-4 SU and ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Wildcats are a long-term 35-8 SU and 29-14 ATS in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. 10* VILLANOVA |
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01-07-19 | Spurs -3 v. Pistons | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Monday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are surging and have won 4 straight games and 12 of their last 15. In terms of their ATS run it is even better as San Antonio is 13-2 ATS their last 15 games. The Pistons are certainly going the opposite direction as they are 4-13 SU since December 2nd. Also, Detroit enters this game on a 2-7 ATS run. That said, the Pistons aren't just losing they're also failing to cover and there is no questioning the Spurs motivation here. They were held to just 79 points in a loss at Detroit last season. As for the Pistons, they've been having trouble with slow starts in games but then fixed that by surging ahead early and leading Utah by 18 points in their most recent game. However, thanks to turnovers and overall poor play (a recurring them for Detroit), they blew the lead and lost to the Jazz. The fact is that the Pistons are a fragile team right now and facing a Spurs team that is firing on all cylinders certainly isn't going to help matters. Take advantage of the small line here and the lay the short number with SA on the road in this one. San Antonio is 4-1 SU and ATS this season after playing each of their 3 prior games at home. Look for the Spurs to improve to 10-5 ATS this season when off a win by a double digit margin. The Pistons drop to 2-7 ATS on the season when off a non-conference game as Detroit's 10-20 SU run in January games adds another loss to the ledger. Spurs get payback for ugly loss here last year. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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01-06-19 | Pacers +3 v. Raptors | Top | 105-121 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Sunday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - This is a tough scheduling spot for the Raptors. They are off a revenge win at Milwaukee last night and now had to travel back home to face a revenge-minded Pacers team. Not only is Indiana the more rested team, they've won 6 straight games since a 3-point loss at Toronto on December 19th. The Pacers have now lost 4 straight to the Raptors so they are amped up about this revenge opportunity Sunday. Overall it is a 13-2 SU run for Indiana and their two losses came by a total of just 4 points! Great value with the road dog in this spot. Toronto is just 3-7 ATS against Central Division teams this season and 1-4 ATS in Sunday games. Indiana is 6-2 SU and ATS against Atlantic Division teams. Also, the Pacers are a fantastic 23-9 SU and 24-8 ATS in Sunday games. Here they catch the Raptors still celebrating that huge win over the Bucks last night. 10* INDIANA |
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