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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-22-23 | Suns -120 v. Lakers | Top | 111-122 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Phoenix Suns Money Line -110/-120 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:10 ET - We get some line value here because of Deandre Ayton being out again for the Suns and of course Kevin Durant remains out. Regarding Ayton being out for this game, note that Bismack Biyombo has played well in his absence. Also, big man Jock Landale has 25 points in just 42 minutes in the last 3 games and the 7-footer can also help out in this game with Ayton being out. Of course the Lakers remain without Lebron James and this is just not a very good Los Angeles team. Though they still have Anthony Davis he is dealing with a right foot stress injury and is not 100%. Phoenix has won the first two meetings this season by an average margin of 18 points. The Lakers are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive but Suns in crucial fight for playoff positioning so they have plenty of motivation too. Los Angeles off a win but this followed losses in 3 of 4 games. The Suns off a road loss and it was their 2nd straight defeat away from home but this followed an 8-2 SU run in road games! The Suns had faced a tough schedule of late but now this match-up is much more favorable for them and they will take advantage. Rather than laying a point or 1.5 here I am grabbing the money line which is available as low as -110 on this one. PHOENIX -110/-120 |
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03-22-23 | UABÂ v. Vanderbilt | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NIT Wednesday UAB Blazers +1.5 @ Vanderbilt Commodores @ 7 ET - This line is right around a pick'em even though UAB plays in CUSA and Vanderbilt plays in the SEC and even though Commodores are at home for this one. Note that Vandy is 14-5 at home this season while the Blazers are just 6-5 in road games this season. When you consider all of these factors and then you are staring at a line in the pick'em range, I think this tells you all you need to know here. This is a major trap the way I see it and I am not following for it. Play the road team that has the mediocre road record and is from the smaller conference. Go against the home team that is so strong as a host and is from the bigger conference. This is a contrarian play but given all these variables you can see why I like it and this is something that has worked well at a high cash-in rate in the past. More of the same here. Note that the Blazers have won 14 of 16 games and have won easily in each of their two NIT games. As for the Commodores they had to rally from a big 2nd half deficit to down the Wolverines. I know they earned it with the comeback win but that big win for Vanderbilt over Michigan could be their defining moment of the tourney that leaves them finished here. I am backing the road team most will not want here. UAB +1.5 |
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03-21-23 | Thunder v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 101-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 10:40 ET - Both teams off a win that followed a loss but the real key here the way I see it is that this is a double revenge spot for the Clippers. LA lost both games against the Thunder this season but both of those meetings were in Oklahoma City. Now they finally get a chance at home facing OKC. The Thunder are 13-21 in road games this season and are just 2-4 SU last 6 road games and one of those wins was against a horrible Spurs team. That said, you can see the value we have with the home team here. Also, the last 6 losses for the Thunder have come by an average margin of 13 points per defeat. The Clippers have won 5 of 6 and the average margin of victory has been about 10 points. Look for this double-revenge spot to result in a home win by a double digit margin. LA CLIPPERS -6.5 |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Oregon -4.5 | Top | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday Top Play Oregon Ducks -4.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 9 ET - The Ducks have been winning even without their top three guys. That shows the depth of this Oregon team. Now, with a win at home over the Badgers Tuesday, the Ducks can head to Las Vegas for the quarterfinals and a potential shot at the NIT Championship should they win in the semi-finals there. First things first though...the Ducks must win this game to get there. That said, I would not be surprised to see 1 or 2 or possibly even all 3 of the top players back for Oregon in this one. Either way, I like the Ducks here but don't be surprised if Dante, Couisnard, and/or Richardson are back for this game. Note that Oregon is 15-5 in home games this season while the Badgers have a losing record in road games this season. Facing the Ducks in Eugene is much different than facing the likes of Liberty and Bradley in Madison. That is no disrespect to the Flames or Braves but, the point is, the travel and facing a very tough Pac-12 team on the road is absolutely a big deal here. Lay the points here. Top Play OREGON -4.5 |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - The 76ers have won 8 straight games. They also have revenge here from a home loss to the Bulls in early January. Not only did Philly lose that game, Chicago got the better of them by a double digit margin. This will be a payback game! The Sixers are on a 36-10 run and Embiid missed that 14 point loss to the Bulls. Looking at Philly's last 46 games they had only one loss by a bigger margin than that one. In other words, the 76ers have not forgotten and you know Embiid will be ready to lead the way here for the Sixers to get some payback. Chicago has been playing well of late but let's not forget they are just 13-21 SU in road games this season. Also, the Bulls average margin of defeat last 14 games is 9 and I am looking for a double digit loss here as Philly wants to return the favor for what Chicago did to them the last time they met here. These teams meet again in Chicago on Wednesday so the Bulls have the full focus and attention of the Sixers here and the result should be a home blowout by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA -7.5 |
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03-20-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Charlotte -5.5 | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play Charlotte 49ers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Not only do the 49ers have a built-in rest edge here since they played on Saturday while the Panthers played yesterday on Saturday, note that Milwaukee had to go to OT to get that win yesterday. I feel UWM could be a little worn out here as they also like to play at a faster tempo than Charlotte. The 49ers are capable of slowing this game down and frustrating the Panthers with solid defense. Note that Charlotte has held teams in the 50s and 60s in many of their recent games. At the same time, Milwaukee has allowed 82 ppg in going 4-3 last 7 games and no that does not include OT points of course. This is the time of year when a team with stronger defensive capabilities can really turn up the heat on an opponent and frustrate them and that is what I see happening here. I feel there was a depth of stronger teams in the CUSA that were deeper and stronger then what we saw in the Horizon League this season. I am always hesitant to lay points and love backing dogs but this is absolutely the right situation to expect a blowout win by double digits for the home team. 10* CHARLOTTE -5.5 |
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03-19-23 | Miami-FL +2 v. Indiana | Top | 85-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Top Play Miami Hurricanes +2 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 8:40 ET - The Hoosiers are off an 11-point win over Kent State Friday. Indiana must have dominated, right? Hardly! The Golden Flashes were a ridiculous 15 of 48 from the field inside the arc. To put that in proper perspective, the Hoosiers made 24 of 48 from inside the 3-point line. So, give Indiana credit for sure but at the same time you can expect there will be no such disparity here. Repeat of that is unlikely and though I am extremely impressed with Trayce Jackson-Davis, as most everyone is, the fact is that the more complete overall team in this match-up is Miami. I look for the Hurricanes defense to help lead the way to an upset here and to be the difference-maker in this one. Miami had to turn up the heat on defense to get past Drake in the first round. The Bulldogs are a solid team and it was impressive and a big confidence booster that the Canes were down 7 at one point in 2nd half and rallied but then fell behind by 8 and again had to rally! The Hurricanes outscored Drake by 16-1 to close out the game and I like the leadership, poise and defensive intensity seen from the Canes in that one. Keep in mind, losses for the Canes have been few and far between this season and, prior to losing in the ACC tourney to Duke, the Hurricanes 4 losses in the 12-4 stretch leading into that game were by an average margin of just 2 points! Given that fact, though I expect the upset here, we'll grab the couple points just in case! Top Play MIAMI +2 |
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03-19-23 | Raptors v. Bucks -8 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Milwaukee Bucks -8 vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:10 ET - Bucks are off a loss. Raptors have won 3 straight but all those games were at home for Toronto. The Raptors have not traveled well at all this season. Milwaukee has been fantastic off a loss for months now. That said, this is the ideal spot to the lay the points with a home team poised to win this by at least a dozen points. In their recent loss to the Pacers, the Bucks saw Indiana come back from double digit 3rd quarter deficit. But it was all because the Pacers shot lights out from 3 point land. It was a crazy performance as Indiana simply would not miss from outside. For the game, the Pacers outscored the Bucks by 33 points from 3-point land. As you would guess, that was the difference in the game. But, after one like that, you know Milwaukee is going to be hungry to bounce back here. The Bucks are 7-1 last 8 times when off a loss. 16 of Bucks last 21 wins by at least 8 points. The home team has been the winner in 12 of last 14 Raptors games. Toronto's last 5 losses have featured 4 by at least 8 points. Given the situation and the Raptors road struggles, I sense a bounce back blowout from a well-rested Bucks team as they have had since Thursday night to stew about the loss and get fired up for this game. MILWAUKEE -8 |
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03-19-23 | Kentucky v. Kansas State +3 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Kansas State Wildcats +3 vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 2:40 ET - I fell short with my play on Providence Friday but will come right back with a play against Kentucky again here as the situation is similar so some of this write-up may be familiar to you as well. This line has moved toward Kentucky and I understand the move. This is a contrarian play on my part. People are looking at a rock solid UK team and Kentucky is annually one of the top programs in the country. They also see a #6 seed laying a small number to a #3 seed that had the benefit of facing a #14 seed in round one. They also see that Kentucky dominated the boards against Providence. However, that will not happen against this Kansas State team but yet people also see a K-St team that entered this tourney losers of 2 straight and also 6 of last 7 road games. So what do I see? I see odds makers that are sharp! This Kansas State team is a #3 seed with good reason and is the real deal. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Keep in mind too that Kentucky had lost 2 of 3 entering the tournament and both losses were to Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a solid team for sure but they are not in the Big Dance for a reason. Payback time for us here after losing with the Friars Friday when we went against Kentucky. I feel this game has an excellent shot to be an outright upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. KANSAS STATE +3 |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern +7.5 v. UCLA | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Northwestern Wildcats +7.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 8:40 ET - I often like to refer to the saying that the odds makers are the sharpest people in the room. The point is that, as we all know, the numbers they put out are so often spot on. That said, the low total on this game is telling you that this game is very likely to be grinder. Both these teams are solid defensively. That said, I love having sizable points in a low-scoring grinder and here we can get 7.5 with a Wildcats team that has been playing very solid basketball for a long time. Northwestern just beat a solid Boise State team while higher-seeded UCLA had a much easier draw in the first round. Of course they earned it but I feel that could come back to bite the Bruins here. This Wildcats team is so strong and feisty and so battle-tested. I was a little down on the Pac-12 this season and think the Big Ten was much deeper. That is not to say the Bruins are not the class of the Pac-12 or that they are not very strong because they absolutely are. But, the point is, they did not face the depth of quality opponents that the Wildcats had to deal with on a regular basis throughout the conference portion of the campaign. Note too that Northwestern had a 1-point loss to Auburn in non-conference action and of the only 4 losses they have had since early February, the Wildcats had 2 losses in OT and another loss by just 4 points. This Cats team is tough to blowout and I expect this game to go to the wire so we have excellent value here with the points. NORTHWESTERN +7.5 |
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03-18-23 | Penn State +5.5 v. Texas | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 7:45 ET - Texas is playing great and deserves all the accolades they are getting for sure. I have been riding with the Longhorns quite often this season. However, this is a much tougher match-up for them. They go from facing a #15 seed in Colgate to facing a tough Big Ten team that just knocked off a solid SEC team in impressive fashion. Penn State did not just beat the Aggies Thursday, they dominated in that game from mid-first period on. They took the lead at that point, widened it by half-time, and then no matter how hard Texas A & M tried to battle back the Nittany Lions just kept on answering. Yes, Andrew Funk shot lights out in that game but keep in mind it was at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines and this game is too. That means it is unlikely he completely cools off here. Plus even if he just shoots a more normal shooting percentage in that game it still would have led to a PSU win as they won that game by 17. That said, I also certainly like having the 5.5 points on our side in this one. The Lions last 4 losses are by an average margin of just 4.8 points and this is a team that has won 9 of last 11 games too. All the pressure on Texas here and I feel it catches up with them in this one. PENN STATE +5.5 |
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03-17-23 | Kent State +4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney TOP PLAY Friday Kent State Golden Flashes +4.5 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 9:55 ET - The Hoosiers have a big-time star in Trayce Jackson-Davis. He had another huge game in the Big Ten Tourney against Penn State. That is the good news. The bad news is that the Hoosiers still lost the game as the Nittany Lions prevailed. As for Kent State, they are not adverse to playing with the big boys so to speak. Yes, the Golden Flashes are a MAC team but they faced both Houston and Gonzaga in non-conference action this season. Kent State put a scare into both the Cougars and the Bulldogs before falling just short in each game by an average margin of only points. That said, Indiana is a rock solid team but they are not quite on the level of Gonzaga and Houston as those teams have only lost a combined 8 games this season. As for the Hoosiers, they started this season 7-0 and have since gone 15-11. Also, if you look at Indiana's last 9 games entering this tournament, they have only 2 wins by more than 3 points! There is great value here with the Golden Flashes getting 4.5 points in this one. Kent only lost 3 non-conference match-ups this season and the 3 teams have a combined record of 90-12! These guys can play with anyone and will not be intimidated here and have veteran leadership with 3 seniors leading the way. TOP PLAY Kent State +4.5 |
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03-17-23 | Warriors v. Hawks -4 | Top | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Friday Atlanta Hawks -4 vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:40 ET - The Warriors have been horrible on the road this season. The Hawks are solid at home. Golden State will be without the suspended Draymond Green for this one. Additionally, GS could be without Steph Curry due to a left thumb injury. Even if he plays, Curry just scored 50 points at LA against the Clippers and the Warriors still lost the game by 8 points. That is ridiculous but it shows you just how mediocre this GS team is these days. Atlanta takes advantage. The Hawks are off B2B losses but are 6-0 SU the last 6 times they have entered a game off B2B losses. Also, 4 of the last 5 of those wins in that situation came by a margin of at least 5 points. Considering all the Warriors issues right now, this one should too. ATLANTA -4 |
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03-17-23 | Providence +4.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 53-61 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Friday Providence Friars +4.5 vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7:10 ET - This line has moved toward Kentucky and I understand the move. This is a contrarian play on my part. People are looking at a rock solid Wildcats team and UK is annually one of the top programs in the country. They also see a #6 seed laying a small number to a #11 seed. They also see a Providence team that enters this tourney losers of 3 straight. So what do I see? I see odds makers that are sharp! This Friars team is the real deal. The Big East is a tough conference. Keep in mind too that Kentucky has lost 2 of 3 and both losses were to Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a solid team for sure but they are not in the Big Dance for a reason. I also like the fact here that Bryce Hopkins is now a star player for Providence after not getting much playing time in Kentucky. Watch him show up big here against his former club as he has been huge the for Friars and you know he is relishing this opportunity. Payback time for him here. Hopkins and the Friars have an excellent shot at the upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. PROVIDENCE +4.5 |
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03-17-23 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Iowa State | Top | 59-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Pittsburgh Panthers +5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 3:10 ET - As mentioned in my write-up on Pittsburgh in Tuesday's win over Mississippi State, the Panthers opened the season with a 1-3 mark so they had won 75% of their games (21-7 run) prior to the loss to big bad Duke in the ACC Tourney. I realize the Cyclones also played powerful Kansas in their Big 12 Tourney loss, but the point is simply that Pitt has plenty of confidence here and yet one could argue that Iowa St has become accustomed to mediocrity this season based on their current 6-11 run since their 13-2 start. We have value here with a scrappy ACC team that is going to play very hard in this one and be very difficult for Iowa State to put away. At the same time, I feel the pressure is more on Iowa State here as they advance all the way to the Sweet 16 last year so expectations are high and the pressure is on the Cyclones to avoid an early exit. Conversely, the Panthers are a team on the rise this season playing without fear or pressure after last season's ugly 11-21 disaster. PITTSBURGH +5 |
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03-16-23 | Penn State +2.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Thursday Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5 or +3 vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 9:55 ET - This is a contrarian play but you can just sense what is about to happen if you are a believer in the contrarian theory like I am. The thing is the Aggies were bitter with the committee last season and then perhaps that resulted in them being under-seeded here this season. But how about what that has set up for them? A win here and they likely would be facing Texas next unless Colgate pulls off a monumental upset. So the point is that it is almost unavoidable that Texas A & M already has one eye on facing big-time in-state rival Longhorns. Yes they do not meet often like they did before the Aggies bolted to the SEC but it is still a big rivalry in Texas. That said, don't be surprised if there is a slight distraction here for the Aggies. That said, all it takes is a little distraction and a solid Big Ten team like Penn State can swoop in and take advantage. The Aggies just got hammered by Alabama by nearly 20 points in the SEC Championship Game while the Nittany Lions lost by only 2 points to the Nittany Lions. Each of last 5 losses by PSU were by only a single digit margin. This line simply looks funny to me and I feel we are getting excellent situation to back the Lions for the mild upset because the odds makers are telling us something here with this very low line on the Aggies in this one. PENN STATE +2.5 or +3 |
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03-16-23 | Colgate v. Texas -13 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday Texas Longhorns -13 vs Colgate Raiders @ 7:25 ET - I know that Colgate has strong shooters but Texas is so strong defensively and just beat Kansas by 20 points to capture the Big 12 title. The Raiders lost by just 7 in the Big Dance last year but faced a Wisconsin team that certainly was built much differently than this Longhorns team is. Also, the prior year Colgate lost by 17 to Arkansas in the NCAA Tourney. Also, I like the fact that this line has ticked down a little bit. Keep in mind, UT has allowed only 55.5 points last 4 games. Colgate has won 9 straight games but the level of competition different of course plus, in the last 7 victories, the Raiders have allowed an average of 71 ppg! That is much different than the Horns recent average and then when you factor in the difference in level of competition you can see why I am expecting this one to be a blowout in the 20-point range. Fade the line move here. TEXAS -13 |
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03-16-23 | Illinois v. Arkansas OVER 144 | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Thursday OVER 144 in Arkansas Razorbacks vs Illinois Illini @ 4:30 ET - I just do not trust either team defensively here and I like the pacing with which both these teams should play here. Note that Illinois was 3-5 in final 8 games of the season and, not including OT points, allowed at least 69 points in 7 of 8 games. In fact, those 8 games saw the Illini allow an average of 74 points per game. As for the Razorbacks, they lost 4 of their last 5 games and allowed an average of 78 points per game in those 5 games. Also, Arkansas did score at least 76 points in 5 of 6 games before bowing out in the SEC Tourney against Texas A & M. Given all these numbers and this line right around a pick'em, you can see why I am projecting a game in which each team gets into the 75 point range and that pushes this game into the 150s this afternoon. OVER 144 in Arkansas |
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03-15-23 | Arizona State v. Nevada +2.5 | Top | 98-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
NCAA Wednesday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack +2.5 vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9:10 ET - The Mountain West was quite solid this season and that is absolutely a factor in this play for me. Yes, Arizona State comes from the perceived tougher conference since they are from the Pac-12. However, the Sun Devils started the season 15-3. That means ASU is entering this game having lost 9 of 16 games. Indeed, Arizona State is on a 7-9 run so it is hard to be excited about this team right now in my opinion. As for Nevada, they have lost 3 straight games but the last two were in OT and one of those was in double-OT! That said, very tight losses for the Wolf Pack and all of this preceded by a a 22-7 start to the season! Of their 10 losses his season, 4 were by a single digit margin in regulation and another 3 were decided in overtime! They are ultra-competitive and match up well with the Sun Devils. That said, I am expecting an outright upset here but a loss by just a 1 or 2 point margin would not shock me either and we would still get the cash. Roll with the underdog Wolf Pack in this one! 10* NEVADA +2.5 |
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03-15-23 | 76ers -140 v. Cavs | Top | 118-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -140 @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - This line is a -2.5 so I am going to recommend laying a little extra juice to have any SU win by the 76ers also be a win for us at the betting window. The Sixers have had a lot of tight wins this season and I do not want to get burned if they win this game by only a point or two. Philly beat Cleveland by 6 recently but had a huge lead in that game and then relaxed at home. They will not make the same mistake here plus Allen and Mitchell were healthy for that game for the Cavaliers but neither are healthy now. That said, I am expecting them to each play tonight but not to be 100 percent. Couple that with the fact this is a B2B spot for the Cavs and with travel involved and you have a great set-up here for a rested Sixers team! Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -140 |
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03-15-23 | Texas Southern v. Fairleigh Dickinson +2.5 | Top | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NCAA Wednesday 10* Top Play Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +2.5 vs Texas Southern Tigers @ 6:40 ET - The Knights got a new head coach and he has been a winner in his career and brought the winning to Fairleigh Dickinson immediately. It was a big turnaround from last season for the Knights and similar to my successful selection on Pittsburgh yesterday (Panthers also off a turnaround season) I feel Fairleigh Dickinson will follow the same storyline here. They have won 16 of 25 games since a slow start to the season. Conversely, the Tigers are just 14-20 this season and went 7-11 in a weak SWAC and plus lost their 3 final regular season games before getting hot in their conference tourney. Give them credit for making it but this team is so much weaker than the one that went 18-12 last season and then knocked off Texas A & M Corpus Christi the First Four last March. That said, there is a reason this line opened up around a pick'em on Texas Southern. People like them with the experience edge here but I am fading that as I like the coaching of the Knights and they were the stronger overall team winning 64% of their last 25 games and now have built confidence. Grab the points but we should not need them. 10* FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON +2.5 |
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03-14-23 | Mississippi State v. Pittsburgh +2.5 | Top | 59-60 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
NCAA Tuesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers +2.5 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 9:10 ET - I hesitate to oversimplify things but I can not help myself here so I will. First off, this line was around a pick'em and is now up to Mississippi State favored by 2.5 points. I love fading line moves and now at the risk of oversimplifying here it is. The Bulldogs opened the season 11-0 so we are talking about a team here that is 10-12 their last 22 games. Conversely, the Panthers opened the season with a 1-3 mark so they had won 75% of their games (21-7 run) prior to the loss to big bad Duke in the ACC Tourney. I realize the Bulldogs also played powerful Alabama in their SEC Tourney loss. but the point is simply that Pitt has plenty of confidence here and yet one could argue that Miss St has become accustomed to mediocrity this season their their run since that 11-0 start. I also like the fact that both teams faced a solid Vandy team this season and the Panthers were ahead by 1 when the Commodores sank two free throws with 1 second left to win the game. Conversely, the Bulldogs were down quite big much of the 2nd half in their 5 point loss at Vandy which felt not even as close as that final score shows. We have value here with a scrappy ACC team that is going to play very hard here and be very hard to put away. At the same time, I feel the pressure is more on Mississippi State here as they lost in first round of NIT last year and are desperate to fend off another early exit. Conversely, the Panthers are a team on the rise this season playing without fear or pressure after last season's ugly 11-21 disaster. 10* PITTSBURGH +2.5 |
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03-14-23 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 110-125 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +1.5 @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:40 ET - These teams recently met in Denver and the Nuggets won that game. However, they have since lost 3 straight games. That has some significance here for sure because Denver has never lost 4 straight games this entire season. Also, the Nuggets have been on the road on a losing streak of at least 2 games just 2 times this entire season. Both times they won the next game and I expect that trend to continue here as they remain perfect in this situation and avoid what would be their first 4-game losing streak of the season. I expect Jamal Murray to play here. I am aware of his injury but feel he did not return in the most recent game more due to precautionary reasoning than anything else. Looking to avoid their longest losing streak of the season, Nuggets likely to put Murray back on the floor tonight. Either way, they should topple a Raptors team that also has struggled of late and, long-term has been struggling much more than this solid Nuggets team. Denver had won 4 straight and 12 of 15 before their current 3-game skid. Toronto, on the other hand, is just 12-12 last 24 games and has essentially been only a mediocre team this season. 10* DENVER +1.5 |
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03-14-23 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. SE Missouri State +4 | Top | 75-71 | Push | 0 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
NCAA Tuesday 10* Top Play Southeast Missouri State Redhawks +4 vs Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders @ 6:40 ET - Lets face it. This is a match-up involving a pair of teams from a pair of weak conferences. I like a couple things though that sway this match-up in favor of the Redhawks. First off, we are getting 4 points and is nice to have the points on your side in what could be a tight finish. Secondly, speaking of tight finishes, SE Mo St had a 6 point lead with about a minute to go in their conference championship game. That game ended up going to OT and the Redhawks even trailed by 4 at one point in the OT. They rallied to win the game by 7 and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tourney. That kind of game and the finish it had is a huge boost for confidence. Thirdly, and definitely a last but NOT least, all the pressure is on the Islanders here. Texas A&M CC is supposed to win this game. Not only because they are favored but because they were here last year too and lost to Texas Southern in the First Four. Simply put, the Islanders must win this game or it will be a a major disappointment. That, ladies and gentlemen, is huge pressure. Not only that, they lost Terrion Murdix to a season-ending injury in their Conference Championship Game win. He is finished for the season and their season will end tonight most likely anyway. He is their starting point guard and leads the team in assists AND steals AND at the guard position he is the top rebounder. This is a major loss you don't replace so fast. Look for a loose and relaxed Redhawks team to topple a pressure-filled injury-hampered Islanders team in this one. 10* SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE +4 |
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03-13-23 | Wolves +5.5 v. Hawks | Top | 136-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable with a back injury and will not be 100 percent if he even does play in this game. I know Rudy Gobert is on the report as questionable for the Wolves but I would be very surprised if he did not play here. Either way, I like Minny in this solid scheduling spot. Timberwolves are coming off an OT loss and are 2-0 this season when off an OT loss and they are rested here. Minnesota is also actually 5-0 last 5 times they are entering a game off a loss by 7 or less points. Atlanta is off a loss so you might be thinking bounce back for them here too. But couple things about that. The Hawks gave up 134 points in that loss. Also, they have had very few standalone losses of late. The fact is when Atlanta is off win and then loses a game it has often been followed by a 2nd straight loss. Indeed, this has happened 5 of the last 6 times and I expect it to happen again here but we will grab the points as added insurance too. 10* MINNESOTA +5.5 |
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03-12-23 | Thunder v. Spurs OVER 236.5 | Top | 102-90 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 236.5 in San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:10 ET - Yes I am aware of the Spurs injury situation but this has precipitated a significant line move here on this total and we have solid value with the over. Remember when the Spurs finally played some defense and seemed to be improving things? It lasted all of about two games! Though off a win versus Denver they allowed 120 points in that game and have now allowed 128 ppg last 3 games. As for OKC, they are not defensive stalwarts either. The Thunder are off a 110-96 win at New Orleans but low-scoring results like that have been the exception rather than the rule of late for this team. Prior to that win over the Pelicans, the Thunder allowed 122 points per game last 8 games. You can see why I am expecting this match-up to get well into the 240s and yet this total has dropped in the mid-230s. I'll take advantage of the added line value. 10* OVER 236.5 in San Antonio |
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03-12-23 | Penn State v. Purdue OVER 134 | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 134.5 in Purdue Boilermakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - I wanted to play Penn State here because they are playing with a lot of confidence and want to make up for the two ugly regular season losses to Purdue that were each by double digits. However, though I do expect this confident PSU team to score well as they are playing without pressure (this is Boilermakers game to not lose rather than Nittany Lions game to win), I just feel that they have no one to stop the 7'4 300 lb beast that is Zach Edey. No one really has anyone to stop this guy but the fact is Penn State is built for small ball. Unlike the prior match-ups though, PSU has now learned their lesson and will worry less about stopping him and more about simply looking to get super hot and outscore these guys with speed and quick passing and a killer outside game. It is their only choice here. The result should be plenty of points in this one in my opinion as the Nittany Lions hang around in this one and score very well but fail to stop the red hot and big bad Boilermakers. 10* OVER 134.5 in Purdue |
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03-12-23 | Memphis +6 v. Houston | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers +6 vs Houston Cougars @ 3:15 ET - Ton of value here with Memphis. The Tigers are 25-8 this season and 2 of the losses came in OT (one was double OT) and overall, Memphis has only 2 loss by more than 6 points this entire season out of 33 games! One of those was by 7 points and one of them was by 8 points. So the point is, getting 6 points here, we are virtually guaranteed of at least having a chance to cover this game in terms of how all 33 of their other 33 games have played out this season! I like the double revenge angle here and the fact that Memphis was able to coast yesterday in a win by a 40-point margin. The Cougars are, of course, one of the best teams in the nation but the Tigers have given them more trouble than anyone else this season and this is one of those situations where third time absolutely could be the charm. Either way, even if the #1 ranked team in the country does not lose this game SU look for them to at least lose it ATS. Grab the points with the underdog in this one. 10* MEMPHIS +6 |
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03-11-23 | Celtics -4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 134-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics -4.5 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - So the Celtics are off a big home win Wednesday that ended a 3-games losing streak and now need to start another winning streak and they have had two days off prior to this game and start a 7-game road trip. They are fully focused, given the situation, on a very successful road trip and that should begin with taking advantage of a fatigued - mentally and physically - Hawks team. Atlanta not only is in a B2B spot but they are playing 3rd game in 4 days and those 2 wins were over a Wizards team that was right behind them in the division standings. Put another way, if Wizards had won both those games instead of Hawks, Washington would now be in front of Atlanta in the standings instead of it being the other way around. That said, the series in over the Wiz not only fatigued the Hawks physically but perhaps mentally too. 10* BOSTON -4.5 |
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03-11-23 | Texas v. Kansas -125 | Top | 76-56 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks Money Line -125 vs Texas Longhorns @ 6 ET - Yes Texas has been hot and yes the Longhorns won the most recent meeting. However, Kansas had already won the Big 12 regular season title. Now this game is different. The Jayhawks are fully motivated and they are out for revenge! In that season-ending meeting, Dajuan Harris shot just 2 of 12 from the field. How unusual was this? Well, in his other 4 recent games he has made 23 of 36 from the field. In other words, that was absolutely an outlier for Harris and you know he will be ready to respond here. Also, Jalen Wilson was again a beast in that match-up for the Jayhawks and he is the Big 12 scoring leader and rebounding leader. Kansas just knocked off Iowa State yesterday despite hitting only 6 of 19 threes. The Jayhawks have been doing a great job of getting to the free throw line and this is going to be another physical battle with the Longhorns. This time Kansas is 100% focused and also they know what the Longhorns brought to the floor in terms of how they matched up and the way they played. Jayhawks perhaps even are rallying around the fact head coach Bill Self missing the tourney after a health issue. Like Texas, they are currently being coached by an assistant coach. Definitely have to like what we've seen from Jayhawks in this tourney thus far even without coach Self. At the same time, ton of respect for what Longhorns have been doing too. But the Jayhawks are just too talented and driven here and remember that in the first meeting between these teams this season, Texas lost by 8 even though Kansas made just 2 of 10 three pointers in that one. I feel, given all of the above, we have a lot of value here being able to take the Jayhawks at a very small price just to win this game without any concern for the spread. 10* KANSAS -125 |
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03-11-23 | Vanderbilt +6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 75-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Vanderbilt +6 vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 3:30 ET - The Commodores are starting to believe they can do this! This Vanderbilt team has been red hot for a long-time and has carried that into this tournament and they will not let up here! Vandy has won 10 of 11 games and now just knocked off Kentucky. Also, unlike A & M, they did not have to rally back in yesterday's action like the Aggies did. Certainly there is a chance that the Texas A & M rally yesterday took a little something out of them for today. The Aggies were down double digits in the 2nd half of their win over Arkansas. Remember they were also losing to Alabama with under 5 minutes to go in their prior game in this SEC tourney. So the point is, how much will the Aggies have left here PLUS it is the Aggies that are laying 6 points in this match-up. I love having the points with this scrappy underdog Vandy. The Commodores led yesterday's 2nd half throughout in the eventual 7 point win over Kentucky. That was also the case in their win over LSU. This team is truly the definition of a "live dog" in a match-up like this with the Aggies. Yes, Texas A & M won the regular season meeting but they were at home for that. Also, that 6-point loss was a tie game with less than 2 minutes to go. 10* VANDERBILT +6 |
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03-10-23 | TCU v. Texas -130 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns Money Line -130 vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 9:30 ET - First off, I am recommending playing the money line here rather than laying 2 points with the Longhorns. I really like Texas here but do not want to get burned if they win the game by 2 (push) or 1 (loss). If we lay the 2 we have to win by 3, here any win cashes for us and I have been too frequently burned on tight games of late. Lets make sure a Horns win is a win we cash at the counter too! This is a revenge game for Texas because they lost by 2 points to TCU in most recent meeting. In that one the Longhorns had 8 more shots from the field but they shot poorly in that game. So they lost to the Horned Frogs despite TCU having twice as many turnovers in the game as that factor was 22 to 11. Additionally, the Horns Timmy Allen did not play yesterday and I truly feel that was more precautionary than anything else and he should be back out there today. The Horns felt they could save him for this game is what I truly feel. He will have fresh legs as a result but, even if he does not play, note that he only had 6 points and was limited by foul trouble in that 2-point loss to the Frogs. In other words, he is just a bonus here but I do expect the senior leader and leading rebounder of this team to indeed be back tonight. Even if Allen does not play, the other factors will lead to a win. The Longhorns off another strong defensive effort and throughout this season they have proven more often than TCU that they are build well to win grinders. They grind out another win here. Horned Frogs off big win versus Kansas State yesterday but had lost 6 of last 9 games heading into that one. The Longhorns have allowed 59 points or less in 3 of last 5 games. The Horned Frogs have allowed at least 63 points in 12 straight games and only allowed less than 70 ONCE in TEN games prior to yesterday 80 to 67 win. The better and more disciplined defensive team prevails here. 10* TEXAS -130Â |
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03-10-23 | Connecticut v. Marquette +4 | Top | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Marquette Golden Eagles +4 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6:30 ET - Marquette won in overtime yesterday so they have no chance to win this game. Seriously that is what the betting markets seem to think with the Huskies now a 4 point favorite in this one. Both Connecticut and the Golden Eagles had scares yesterday and certainly Marquette had the tougher time. However, the fact the Huskies nearly blew all of a 26 point lead is a bit of a concern. Yes they won the game by 7 but they outscored the Friars by 21 points from three-point land. In other words, that was certainly a factor in the final margin. Also, I like the fact that the shooting edge helped mask the fact they had twice as many turnovers as Providence did. The point is that UConn is now over-valued here. I like the fact that the Golden Eagles did not shoot well from beyond the arc yesterday and yet still hung on for the win. All of this has led to line value here as this is a team that relies on its outside shot and odds suggest they will shoot better here today and the Huskies will regress. That is simply a regression to the mean today on Friday. 10* MARQUETTE +4 |
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03-09-23 | Warriors -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 110-131 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors -2.5 @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:30 ET - These teams do not like each other. This insures that both teams are certainly motivated to win this game and you absolutely can not say that about many NBA regular season games especially in today's NBA of guys sitting out games or even taking games off, so to speak, when they are actually playing in those games! So the point is we have the motivation factor working for both teams in this one. What does that all mean here? It means Warriors should win this game in a road rout. They are the healthier team and the Grizzlies are a mess right now because of the combined injury situation and then the Ja Morant situation off the court. The fact Morant is still out and this team has been distracted by everything going on plus the fact this team is still without a couple key contributors (Adams still out and role player Clarke lost for the season Friday), this Memphis team could get blown out here even though they are at home. Steph Curry now back for the Warriors but Golden State is fired up coming off B2B losses. The Grizzlies have lost 13 of 20 games overall. The Warriors are 8-2 the last 10 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Lay the short number here. 10* GOLDEN STATE -2.5 |
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03-09-23 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -6 | Top | 47-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns -6 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7 ET - The Cowboys knocked off the rival Sooners yesterday to advance to face the Longhorns today. Texas has the rest edge here and also a confidence edge since they knocked off Kansas to close out the regular season. The Horns also loaded with confidence as it pertains to this match-up thanks to knocking off Oklahoma State by a double digit margin in each of their two regular season meetings. Texas is having a fantastic season and only has 2 losses to unranked foes this season. The Longhorns performed well against ranked teams too but the point is they were practically unbeatable (16-2) in games against unranked foes. As for the Cowboys, they were 3-9 against ranked teams this season. Also, Oklahoma State had lost 5 straight games before winning their regular season finale and then opening the Big 12 tourney with a win over Oklahoma. Yes, we have the matter of covering the spread here but first key to that is getting a SU win and, based on the numbers above and the situation, you can see why I am confident of that. Each of the Cowboys last 5 road losses was by 8 or more points. 10* TEXAS -6Â |
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03-09-23 | Ohio State v. Iowa -3 | Top | 73-69 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes -3 or -3.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 2:30 ET - Iowa is off a loss and they have been great off a loss this season including a tightener that has them nearly perfect in this role this season. The Hawkeyes are 7-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 14 or less points. They are rested here and taking on a Buckeyes team that had to battle it out with the Badgers yesterday. Keep in mind, Ohio State had lost 15 of 18 games before getting the win over Wisconsin yesterday. They take a big step up in level of opponent now as they face the high-scoring Hawkeyes after facing the slow-paced Badgers. Look for Iowa to be aggressive and look to run the Buckeyes right out of the arena as they catch them in the 2nd game of a B2B spot. Ohio State had a recent 9-game losing streak and then also had another loss in their regular season finale. All 10 of those losses by 4 or more points and I am confident this will be an 11th straight loss by 4 or more points. 10* IOWA -3 or -3.5Â |
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03-08-23 | Hawks -3 v. Wizards | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks -3 @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - The Wizards are off a win yesterday but it was at Detroit. Not only are the Pistons a bad team, it was also a road game for Washington and then they had to travel back to DC for this game. Prior to that win, the Wizards had lost 8 of 14 games. Now they face a Hawks team in the first of B2B games here versus Atlanta. The set-up for this first game certainly favors the Hawks as they have the rest edge and I like the fact they are off B2B losses. Note that Atlanta is 5-0 SU the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak and all 5 of those wins by at least 3 points and, in fact, the games averaged 13 point margin of victory. The Hawks also lost to the Wizards about a week ago in Snyder's first game as head coach and Atlanta blew a 4th quarter lead in that one. In other words, there is plenty of extra motivation in this revenge divisional game. 10* ATLANTA -3 |
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03-08-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +2.5 | Top | 65-57 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +2.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6:30 ET - The Buckeyes won 1 road game all season long! This is a neutral site game but the fact is that means both teams are traveling and it was the Badgers that were better on the road this season. In fact, Wisconsin won 3 of their last 5 road games this season and that included a win at Ohio State. Not only that, both losses were in OT and one of those was a loss at Michigan that only went to OT because of a 3-pointer at the buzzer of regulation. The fact is the Badgers did lose in regulation time of any of their final 5 road games and very easily could have a 5-game road winning streak heading into this one. Again, compare this to an Ohio State team that has ONE WIN on the road this ENTIRE SEASON. The Badgers are the better defensive team in this match-up. I feel Ohio State is getting some attention from the betting masses here because of the revenge angle and the fact the Buckeyes are the higher-scoring team. But this one sets up to be another grinder and the Buckeyes don't have a key inside player, Zed Key, like they did for the first meeting with the Badgers when they dominated the glass. That said, I feel we have exceptional line value here as this line was around a pick'em but now has Badgers getting 2.5 points here. 10* WISCONSIN +2.5 |
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03-08-23 | Butler v. St. John's -6 | Top | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm -6 vs Butler Bulldogs @ 3 ET - So this is the Big East tourney so it is a neutral site game yet it is really not neutral for the Red Storm as they split their home games each season between Carnesecca Arena and here at Madison Square Garden. That said, this is a significant edge here for St John's and they already beat the Bulldogs by double digits at Carnesecca Arena earlier this season. Also, 4 of the last 6 regular season home games for the Red Storm were here at Madison Square Garden so big edge here. Not only was St John's 11-6 at home and Butler 3-9 on the road this season, the Bulldogs were frequently blown out of games. This is just not a very good Butler team this season and their 3 wins in their season-ending 3-9 run were all by a margin of 2 or less points. Conversely, their 17 losses this season were by an average margin of defeat of 18 points and all the losses were by 6 or more points! Look for the Red Storm to take advantage of the home court edge here and pull away for a big-margin win in the 2nd half. 10* ST JOHN'S -6 |
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03-07-23 | 76ers v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 117-94 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:30 ET - Both Tobias Harris and PJ Tucker could be back for this game after missing last night's game at Indiana. But, overall, how much can the Sixers have left in the tank after going all out in a 147 to 143 win over the Pacers last night. This is a tough back to back spot for Philly and prior to B2B high-scoring wins over the Bucks (miracle comeback win in 4th quarter) and Pacers, the 76ers had lost 3 of 5 overall and also 3 of 5 road games. So this B2B road spot is sure to be a tough one for Philadelphia and they are facing a Timberwolves team that has won 3 straight games. Those 3 Wolves wins were on the road too and now they are back home and have a rest edge over the Sixers. Minny did lose their last 2 home games so you know they want to make this one count! They get it done here! 10* MINNESOTA +1.5 |
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03-07-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Cleveland State OVER 126.5 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 126.5 in Cleveland State Vikings vs Northern Kentucky Norse @ 7 ET - This is the Horizon League Championship Game and there was some very ugly shooting in the two regular season meetings between these clubs. However, that is simply serving to keep this total lower than it should be. The first meeting saw the Vikings make just 10% of their three pointers plus both clubs struggled at the free throw line. Then the 2nd meeting got to 127 points even though there was more unimpressive shooting in that one. The key to the value though is the first very low-scoring game saw some unreal shooting numbers at the free throw line. So the opportunity was there for each of the two regular season meetings to get well into the 130s and yet the fact those games did not has led to line value here because both of these teams are coming into this game with plenty of confidence on the offensive end. The Norse have won 6 of 7 games and scored an average of 73 ppg during this stretch. The Vikings have won 10 of 13 and, not including OT points of course, have averaged 74.6 during this stretch. That would put this game into the 140s but yes is a conference championship game and should feature some solid defense too but that still only pushes this one down into the 130s in my opinion. Both teams loaded with confidence right now. 10* OVER 126.5 in Cleveland State |
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03-06-23 | Cleveland State -2.5 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland State Vikings -2.5 vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers @ 9:30 ET - This is a neutral site game and I love the fact that the Vikings are favored here even though they lost both the regular season meetings. This is certainly no mistake by the odds makers. The fact is that this is a double revenge spot for Cleveland State and the Vikings have won 12 of 16 games. The Panthers have lost each of last two road games and even lost at home to a very bad Green Bay team last month. Milwaukee won the first meeting in OT thanks to scoring 15 more points from 3-point land in that game. They then won the 2nd game thanks to the Vikings having one of the worst shooting days you can imagine. The Vikes had 74 shots from the field compared to just 57 for the Panthers but made just 3 of 20 three pointers plus they only hit 13 of 25 at free throw line. Despite all this, Cleveland State still only lost the game by a single digit margin. That says a lot for sure. This is a big part of the reason the Vikings are now favored here and they had plenty of opportunities to win each of the first two games and will make up for all that here in tourney action. The third time will be the charm and I look for them to get the SU win and also cover the short number along the way! 10* CLEVELAND STATE -2.5 |
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03-06-23 | Celtics v. Cavs -3.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 7:10 ET - This is a very tough spot for Boston. The Celtics are off a loss in double OT versus the Knicks yesterday. They had 4 guys play 44 minutes or more. This was the equivalent roughly of 4 guys playing a full normal regulation game of 48 minutes. Then Boston struggled with a couple of reserves in that played fewer minutes. Hauser had a +/- of -16 in 20 minutes and Muscala was -9 in 12 minutes on the floor. The point is that, considering tired legs here and some unimpressive bench play, the Celtics likely to struggle badly at Cleveland here. The Cavaliers are hosting a Boston team that is now 4-4 last 8 games. Cleveland has revenge for a 4 point loss at Boston last week. The Cavaliers have won 11 of last 14 home games and are 27-7 as a host on the season. Each of last 15 Cavs wins have been by 8 or more points so there is no hesitation in laying the big points here. Average margin of win was 16 points in these 15 wins. This one, considering Boston's double OT back to back situation, sets up well to be another home blowout for the Cavaliers. 10* CLEVELAND -3.5 |
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03-05-23 | Bucks -4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 @ Washington Wizards @ 7:40 ET - Playing a strong team off a loss is always something worth looking at. But not all situations merit a play nor are all situations created equal. That said, this is a great one and I will not hesitate to get involved here. The Bucks just saw their 16-game losing streak come to an end last night. However, the key is how it happened. Milwaukee was up by 14 heading to the 4th quarter and then got outscored 48 to 31 in the final stanza. The 76ers just could not miss in that fourth quarter as they were seemingly making everything. Giannis Antetokounmpo and company are fired up now and want to bounce right back after letting a 4th quarter double digit lead slip away. Also, 17 of the last 19 Bucks wins have been by 6 or more points. Washington is off a home OT loss and actually has lost 7 of last 12 home games. So the fact Wizards are at home here is not a big help necessarily and plus they are in a B2B spot just like the Bucks. That said, I am backing the angry road favorite here. 10* MILWAUKEE -4.5 |
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03-05-23 | Northwestern +5.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 65-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats +5.5 @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7:30 ET - Scarlet Knights off devastating road loss at Minnesota as Rutgers led that game by 10 points with under a minute and a half to go and ended up losing the game. That is a hard defeat to bounce back from. Now they host a Northwestern team that is off a tough OT loss to Penn State. That is a tough loss to bounce back from too but the Wildcats are getting a handful of points here and are a scrappy defensive-minded team and that Rutgers loss was truly of the devastating variety. With the Cats having lost 3 straight games for the first time this season, they will be fully focused on getting back into the win column here in the regular season finale. The Scarlet Knights have lost each of their last two games so their home has hardly been a fortress for them of late and I feel we have great line value with the sizable points here considering the key factors with this one. 10* NORTHWESTERN +5.5 |
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03-04-23 | Hawks +2.5 v. Heat | Top | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +2.5 @ Miami Heat @ 8:10 ET - Both teams in a B2B but like a few key factors with Hawks here. Atlanta had a solid win and got to rest guys some as the game went on. Also, the Hawks have revenge here from a loss to Miami in most recent game. The Heat, on the other hand, really pushed hard in last night's game and it was a tight finish that also had a rough ending for them. Miami gave up a last second 3 pointer to lose the game and that is a tough one to bounce back from especially in a B2B and facing a revenge-minded division rival. The Hawks got their first win since the coaching change after losing the first game with coach Snyder. Look for them to build off that here after knocking off the Trail Blazers convincingly last night. 10* ATLANTA +2.5 |
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03-04-23 | Davidson v. Rhode Island +3.5 | Top | 68-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Rhode Island Rams +3.5 vs Davidson Wildcats @ 8 ET - The Rams are 7-7 SU at home this season. The Wildcats are 4-6 on the road this season. So, on the surface with Davidson having a much better record overall and opening up at nearly a pick'em, they look like the play here. Sure enough everyone jumped all over them and the line is up to a 3.5 on the Wildcats in this one. Davidson, however, has not been very strong on the road and Rams have been a rather strong home team this season plus they have been done in by some tighter losses this season that has impacted their record. Rhode Island is only 6-5 SU in their last 11 home games but 2 of those losses by just 1 point and another loss was in OT. Davidson will have their hands full here as Rams will show up big here in their home finale. Rhode Island is almost always very tough to beat on their home floor and that should be the case again here as the Rams are off a road win but had lost 3 straight at home and want to make up for that here. One loss by 1 point and another loss in OT at home. Here the Rams get it done in their home finale. 10* RHODE ISLAND +3.5 |
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03-04-23 | Kansas v. Texas -3 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns -3 vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 4 ET - Kansas already wrapped up the #1 spot in the Big 12 Conference for the regular season. This could be a tough spot for the Jayhawks to match the intensity of the Longhorns. Texas enters this one in a 3-way tie for the #2 spot in the Big 12 but, even more importantly, this is their home finale and they enter this game off B2B losses. That means an extra intense effort from the Horns in this one and adding to the intensity is that this is a revenge game from an 88-80 loss at Kansas earlier this season. That was the most points that UT allowed in a road game all season long. The Horns are 16-1 at home this season and, even though the Jayhawks have won 7 straight games you can see why Texas is favored here per all the key factors in this one. Lay it with the Longhorns. 10* TEXAS -3 |
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03-03-23 | Suns -5.5 v. Bulls | Top | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns -5.5 @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:10 ET - It has only just begun. Kevin Durant made his debut for the Suns and now look for things to continue to build off that victory by a double digit margin at Charlotte. This Suns team is stacked and they take on a Bulls team that is off a win but that had lost 7 of 9 games before that victory. Also, that Chicago win came against a very bad Pistons team. Also, the other two wins were against another team (Wizards) with a losing record plus a Nets team that has been an absolute train wreck of late. All that said, the Bulls likely in trouble here against a very strong Suns team. Phoenix is ready to make a major move now with a revamped roster while Chicago is an ugly 6-13 this season in games against teams from the Western Conference. Also this line has moved down to a 5.5 and 6 of last 7 Bulls losses have been by a margin of 6 or more points. Look for another one here to fall into that category. 10* PHOENIX -5.5 |
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03-03-23 | Dayton -120 v. St. Louis | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Dayton Flyers -120 @ St Louis Billikens @ 7 ET - Dayton has won 7 of 9 games and the Flyers beat the Billikens by double digits during this hot run as well. Of course we are not quite yet into tourney time but St Louis is not nearly as strong as Dayton is defensively. That said, March is the time of year - above all others - where defensive intensity picks up and it is crunch time for teams. I like the fact that Dayton allows only 60.7 ppg while St Louis allows 71.4 ppg. This is a great spot for the road team at a great price. The Flyers did lose at St Louis last season and these guys do not lose often. They remember that defeat and want to get it done on the Billikens home floor this time around. The Billikens have lost 6 of last 10 games and simply are not in a groove in the same way the Flyers are right now. This is the A-10 finale for these teams and Dayton is off a win that followed a loss. The fact is that in Dec, Jan, and Feb the Flyers only had one time in which they had a standalone win. In other words, the odds favor that Dayton gets another win here. The Flyers wrap the regular season on a 2-game winning streak and solidify their spot in the standings above the Billikens. 10* DAYTON -120 |
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03-02-23 | 76ers v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:30 ET - This line has moved toward Philly from its opener and I do understand that for sure because Dallas has lost B2B games and 5 of 6 and is still trying to adjust since the trade for Irving. However, the 76ers are in a very tough B2B spot here as they just a big revenging win at Miami last night. Look for Philly to fall flat here in the 2nd game of the B2B. I know Embiid missed last night so he will play tonight most likely but I still like the Mavericks here to get back on track. Dallas off B2B tight losses including one in which they blew a 27 point lead to the Lakers. There will be no quit in the rested Mavericks tonight as they play for just the 2nd time this week. For the Sixers, this is 2nd game of B2B and 3rd game in 4 nights situation. 10* DALLAS -2.5 |
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03-02-23 | Valparaiso +2.5 v. Murray State | Top | 50-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Valparaiso Beacons +2.5 vs Murray State Racers @ 7 ET in MVC Tournament 1st Round in St Louis, MO - Why is this line 2.5 is the million dollar question here? This makes absolutely no sense. The Racers were just favored by 6.5 at home and and also favored by 3.5 when they faced the Beacons at Valparaiso earlier this season. Yes the most recent win came in OT for the Racers in the final game of the regular season as they defeated these same Beacons by just 1 point. But this line really looks funny to me. Valparaiso has lost 4 straight games and 7 of last 8 and they are 5-15 in conference action while Murray State is 11-9 in conference action and has won 3 of last 4 games. So the fact is this is a trap line. Many will be looking at the Racers here but a sharp book I follow also has this line down at a 2 which also says a lot. This looks like a great spot for Valparaiso to score the upset. Do not let the line fool you. Yes, the Beacons have struggled to get wins but they have been on the cusp and 3 of last 7 losses have been in OT and another regulation loss was by just a single point. In the most recent loss to Murray State, Valparaiso actually had 9 more field goal attempts in the game but were outscored by 11 at the free throw line and that certainly impacted the final outcome. On a neutral court, the Beacons should shoot better than they did in that game plus Murray State won't have such a big free throw edge either. 10* VALPARAISO +2.5 |
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03-01-23 | Texas +2.5 v. TCU | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns +2.5 @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - This line opened up around a pick'em. This is despite TCU being 12-4 at home this season and Texas having a losing record on the road for the season. As I expected, the betting markets are jumping on the Horned Frogs and so now we can get +2.5 with the Longhorns in this one. Texas is coming off a loss to Baylor. That sets this up perfect (literally!) as UT has not lost B2B game this entire season. Texas is 6-0 when coming off a loss this season and now takes on a Horned Frogs team off a 1-point win. TCU, prior to that win, had lost 6 of 8 games. Also, if you look at TCU's last 8 games, they were solid defensively against Kansas but allowed an average of 76 points in the other 7 games. The Longhorns are not only 6-0 SU when off a loss this season, they have allowed an average (not including OT points of course) of only 59 points in those 6 games. As you can see, Texas responds well off a loss and definitely tends to D up when off a defeat! Overall, the Longhorns have allowed just 65.5 ppg last 6 games. Love the situation and fading the line move. Yes this is a revenge game for the Horned Frogs because they lost in Austin earlier this season but revenge tends to be over-played. Horns aren't going to lay down here after losing to the Bears. 10* TEXAS +2.5 |
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03-01-23 | 76ers -130 v. Heat | Top | 119-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -130 @ Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers are 2 point favorites in most books as of gameday morning and I do not want to get burned here if they win the game by a margin of just 2 or particularly just 1. That said, I will suggest a money line play here and the dominant line on this one is -130. The 76ers are getting a shot at right back revenge as they just lost at home to Miami by 2 points in a game in which the Heat made 5 more 3-pointers for a 15 point variance. That plus the Sixers being sloppy in the turnover department certainly were the key differences in the game. Note that Philly now enters this one off B2B losses. That is notable as the 76ers are 5-1 (83%) last 6 times they have entered a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. As for the Heat, they had lost 4 straight by sneaking out the win in Philly and now both Strus and Love are banged up entering this game. I respect Miami at home but the Sixers had been the hotter team and are very hungry in this revenge spot. Also, the 76ers have had 6 of these B2B spots this season where they face the same team in B2B games and they have NEVER lost both of the games. I do not expect that to change here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -130 |
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02-28-23 | Pacers v. Mavs -7 | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks -7 vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:40 ET - While he is not a star, Maxi Kleber is a solid role player for the Mavs and could be back for this one. That may not seem like a big deal but, believe it or not, Dallas is 9-1 SU last 10 home games and he has played in and the only loss was to the big, bad Bucks. In other words, his presence helps. Of course the big story now is Irving being paired with Doncic and this pairing will continue to get stronger together. Also, Dallas is off a loss here and in bounce back mode. At the same time, Indiana is off a win so I really like the set up here. Hungry home team facing a Pacers team that has not record back to back wins since early January! The Mavericks are 11-3 SU this season when at home off a loss and Indiana had lost 17 of 20 prior to the big win at Orlando. Laying the reasonable number on the home team in this spot should prove well worth it in a game that has the makings of a rout at home by double digits. 10* DALLAS -7 |
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02-28-23 | Villanova v. Seton Hall +2 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NCAAB Tuesday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates +2 vs Villanova Wildcats @ 8:30 ET - The Pirates are at home off B2B losses. Seton Hall is 3-0 this season when they are at home and on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Also, Villanova is 4-8 on the road this season while the Pirates are a solid 10-5 at home this season and this is their home finale. The Wildcats have surprised with wins in 5 of their last 6 games but they still are just 2-4 this season when they are entering a road game and coming off a victory. Give Nova some credit for sure too but in the win over Xavier, the Musketeers were sloppy and had twice as many turnovers. That was before the win over Creighton which saw the Bluejays make just 19% of their three pointers. This as set up great line value here. 10* SETON HALL +2 |
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02-28-23 | IUPU Ft Wayne +5.5 v. Detroit | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Horizon League Tourney 10* Top Play IPFW Mastodons +5.5 @ Detroit Mercy Titans @ 7 ET - I like the scrappy Mastodons to get revenge here. If they fall short, I do expect at least a cover in this one! IPFW is actually 7-7 SU in road games this season and they had some impressive Horizon League wins this season too. However, they got blasted for one of their worst losses this season when they lost 85-52 at Detroit! Having also lost to the Mercy Titans when they hosted them, Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne is out for revenge big time here. With the success that IPFW has had on the road this season plus the double revenge (including big loss) angle here, this one sets up well for an upset. That said, I am happy to have the handful of points. Note that other than the ugly loss at Detroit, the Mastodons had only 4 Horizon League losses and 3 of the 4 were by 5 or less points. Happy to grab the underdog here. The Titans are 8-13 SU last 21 games and will struggle just to win this game let alone cover the spread. Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne will shoot much better than they did in their other trip to Detroit! 10* IPFW Mastodons +5.5 |
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02-27-23 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +1.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 9 ET - This line looks funny, does it not? Baylor is a solid team in the upper half of the Big 12 standings and facing an Oklahoma State team that is in the lower half of the Big 12 standings and yet the line opened in the pick'em range. Of course you know what this usually means...in other words, do not fall for the trap! The fact is that the Bears have played 3 straight ranked teams and have another one, Iowa State, on deck to wrap the regular season at home. Also, Baylor is off huge win versus rival Texas in most recent game. This is a tricky spot for the Bears while it is a great spot to back the Cowboys. Note that Oklahoma State is angry off 4 straight losses. This game is in Stillwater, OK and this is a proud school that draws fans well here and this is their home finale. Last but not least, this is a revenge game for the Cowboys also as they lost by 16 at Baylor earlier this season. Ideal set-up for payback here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5 |
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02-27-23 | Heat v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 101-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 vs Miami Heat @ 7:10 ET - The 76ers are off a loss. Win Philly is coming off a loss and wins their next game, 11 of those 12 wins have been by at least 8 points! So, the point is, if you like the Sixers to win this game, don't hesitate to lay the points! Certainly I do like Philadelphia to win this game as they are a perfect 6-0 SU the last 6 times they were at home and coming off a loss! All 6 of those wins have been by at least 9 points too! Here they are catching a Miami team that has lost 4 straight games overall plus is horrible 2-7 SU last 9 road games. Last but certainly not least here is the fact that this is the first time these teams have met since the Heat ended the Sixers season last year! Indeed, the 76ers season ended right here in mid-May in Philly when Miami got the final win for a 4-2 series victory in the post-season. Payback time has finally arrived. 76ers in a home blowout rout. 10* PHILADELPHIA -5.5 |
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02-27-23 | Bellarmine v. North Florida -4.5 | Top | 76-74 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Atlantic Sun Tourney Monday 10* Top Play North Florida Ospreys -4.5 vs Bellarmine @ 7 ET in Lynchburg, VA - North Florida just beat Bellarmine by a dozen in a match-up just a few days ago and it was no fluke. The Ospreys dominated the rebounding battle and that was a key to the win. Even though the ASUN decided to have this game at a neutral site, since the winner faces Liberty here in Lynchburg VA tomorrow, I really like North Florida's odds on advancing here. Of course we must cover the 4.5 point spread too but note that Bellarmine's 8 of last 10 losses have all been by double digit margins! Conversely, the Ospreys enter this game having an exceptional month as they are 6-2 with each of the 2 losses by just 2 points. I love the competitiveness of this North Florida team as evidenced in the post-game melee after a recent tough 2-point road loss at Austin Peay. This Ospreys team has the rebounding edge and edge in blocked shots over Bellarmine. The Knights play a smaller lineup emphasizing guard play but just like the recent meeting, it will not work again here either. The bigger Ospreys dominate again. Bellarmine won this tournament last year but their top two players from that team are gone. That is why the Knights had a much less impressive season this year and I feel this hungry Ospreys team is built well to advance. 10* NORTH FLORIDA -4.5 |
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02-26-23 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 214.5 | Top | 93-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 214.5 in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors @ 6:10 ET - We get line value because this total has dropped as Raptors in a back to back and could be without Fred VanVleet yet again. With Toronto off a grinder at Detroit yesterday, I expect much better shooting today. The Raptors shoot poorly from everywhere yesterday but they put up 118 on Cleveland the last time they faced them and should bounce back here. Prior to the low-scoring win over the Pistons, each of last 4 Toronto games totaled at least 225 points! Also, though their most recent road trip ended with a low-scoring win at Memphis, it was preceded by 5 straight road games totaling at least 220 and averaging 236 points. Look for another higher-scoring road game here but we can take advantage of a lower total because the Cavaliers are involved. Yes, I know the Cavs are known for lower-scoring games long-term but their short-term trending has been much different so we have big value here. 4 straight Cleveland games have totaled at least 224 points! The average of those 4 Cavaliers games was 234 points apiece! 10* OVER 214.5 in Cleveland |
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02-26-23 | Wichita State +6.5 v. Tulane | Top | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Wichita State Shockers +6.5 @ Tulane Green Wave @ 3 ET - The Shockers have been an anomaly this season as they buck the trend of home dominance in College Basketball. I am talking SU not ATS. I love grabbing road dogs in CBB and fading home faves in CBB as a general rule but Wichita State has taken things to another level this season. Yes I am still going to grab the points here and go ATS with this play but check out these SU stats involving the Shockers. Note that Wichita State is 7-9 SU in home games this season and 6-3 SU in road games! The trend is showing no signs of going away either as the road team has prevailed in 8 of last 9 Shockers games! The only exception was a double-OT win for Wichita State at home. Look for this road dominance to continue here as the Shockers have won 4 straight road games and they are seeking revenge for a loss at home versus Tulane earlier this season. The Green Wave are 5-3 SU last 8 games and 3 of their 5 wins were in OT so they have been far from dominant of late. They just got embarrassed at Houston and could be hanging heads a bit here as they also got knocked out of AAC Tourney by the Cougars last season. That game had extra meaning as a result but they continue to get pummeled by Houston. Of course the Cougars are at another level but Tulane was not even able to compete for very long in that game. Conversely the Shockers lost by just single digits when they faced Houston this season and they were right in the game even with just a few minutes left. The Shockers lost the first meeting this season in OT to Tulane when they blew a double digit lead at home. It is time for payback here and the Shockers are in their element for sure as a road underdog here. 10* WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS +6.5 |
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02-26-23 | Wisconsin +5 v. Michigan | Top | 79-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +5 @ Michigan Wolverines @ 2 ET - This is Michigan's regular season home finale and I get that. However, this team is off B2B big wins. They had the emotional home win over rival Michigan State. They then followed that up by going on the road and getting an upset win at Rutgers after trailing by double digits early. The Wolverines do have revenge here against the Badgers but this Wisconsin team makes for a scrappy underdog and I like them in this spot against a Michigan team off B2B big wins. The Badgers are 4-3 in the month of February and one of the losses was in OT and the other two losses were by 2 and 1 point, respectively. That means at the end of regulation time, the 3 games in which Wisconsin lost, the net margin of the 3 losses was 3 points! The Badgers will again be ultra-competitive here and have allowed 61 points or less in regulation time of 7 of last 8 games! Michigan shot well in the win over Michigan State but has been held to 59 ppg in their other 3 games the past two weeks. The Badgers will be in this "grinder" all the way! 10* WISCONSIN +5 |
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02-25-23 | San Diego State -2.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 @ New Mexico Lobos @ 10 ET - Great spot for San Diego State. They have one home loss this season. It came against the Lobos. This is a big revenge game for the Aztecs. They are a rock solid 7-1 in true road games this season. New Mexico has a great home court and a strong record there this season but the losses have all been more recent as they started the season 10-0 there and then have gone 4-3 since at home! Overall, the Lobos have been struggling as they enter this game having lost 6 of 8 games and that included a pair of home losses including most recent one by double digits versus Wyoming. The Aztecs are a ranked team and are the top team in the Mountain West Conference and they will get their payback here and the line is small enough that I am confident we get the cover as well. In fact, San Diego State has 22 wins this season and only 2 of them were by less than 3 points. Keep in mind also that, as strong as the Aztecs season has been, they still have not locked up the #1 spot in the standings for the regular season so they have plenty of motivation here in addition to the revenge angle. Lay it! 10* SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5 |
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02-25-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers +1.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:40 ET - This is a tremendous revenge spot. Revenge is absolutely overplayed in sports betting but there are certain cases that are ultra strong, like this one, compared to just a normal revenge spot. Not only have the Sixers lost both games this season to the Celtics, this will be the first meeting in Philly between these long-time rivals since last February. What happened in that 457th meeting one year ago? It was the WORST EVER loss for a team in this rivalry that has had over 450 meetings through the many years. The Sixers got beat 135 to 87 on their HOME floor! That is the kind of defeat not easily forgotten and I fully expect Philadelphia to do everything they can to finally get some long-awaited payback here. Note that Sixers enter this game having won 27 of 34 games including 5 in a row. Not only 5 straight wins overall but also 5 straight home wins. Boston is off B2B wins but, prior to that, the Celtics had gone just 6-5 last 11 games. This is the right spot for the Celtics to lose a game and the red-hot Sixers to get some home-cooked revenge! 10* PHILADELPHIA 76ers +1.5 |
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02-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue -7 | Top | 79-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers -7 vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 7:30 ET - This is a revenge game and is a "buy low" situation on Purdue. As a result of having been cooled off in recent weeks we are getting solid line value here. Keep in mind, the Boilermakers were sloppy in the loss at Indiana earlier this month. They had too many turnovers plus they also were hurt by poor free throw shooting and did make a modest, though unimpressive, 6 of 18 from 3 point land. Purdue did dominate the glass in that one and I expect rebounding, as well the facets of the game, to be dominated by the Boilermakers in this revenge rematch. Purdue is 13-1 this season in home games and Indiana is 4-7 this season in road games. Those are SU records of course but note that Boilermakers have 24 wins SU wins this season and 75% of them (18) have come by a margin of 8 or more points. The Hoosiers have 9 losses this season and 6 of them have been by a double digit margin. This one will be too. Blowout revenge at home for a Boilermakers team that is still looking to wrap up the regular season top spot in the Big Ten standings as they have not quite done so yet. 10* PURDUE -7 |
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02-24-23 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 231 | Top | 101-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER 230.5 / 231 in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 10:10 ET - I completely understand this total moving lower as the Warriors are in the 2nd game of a B2B and could rest guys plus of course are without Curry. However, do you realize how bad this Rockets defense is? Whoever is on the floor is still an NBA player and the point is this game should still play out as an absolute track meet with guys flying up and down the floor and firing up shots. Houston enters this game on a 7-game losing streak and, other than a low-scoring loss at defensive-minded Miami, the Rockets allowed 133 ppg in the other 6 games. The line on this game is Warriors by 10 which means if Houston has a typical game defensively we should see a 133-123 final which puts this one about 25 points above the current number. I am not necessarily expecting 256 here but the point is we have a lot of wiggle room with this total the way I see it. As bad a team as Houston has been they still score decently in a lot of games. They have averaged about 112 points last 9 games and that includes some recent lower-scoring efforts which I do not expect to be repeated here with Rockets wanting to push Warriors in the 2nd game of a B2B spot. 10* OVER 230.5 / 231 in Golden State |
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02-24-23 | Xavier -120 v. Seton Hall | Top | 82-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Xavier Musketeers Money Line -120/-125 @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 7 ET - The Pirates have a middle of the road Big East record but they truly have struggled against teams above them in the standings. They have 9 wins in the Big East this season and 2 each have come against the bottom 4 teams in the conference. Those 8 victories coming over St John's, Georgetown, DePaul, and Butler. The combined record of those teams is 18-53 in Big East games. The record for this ranked Xavier team is 20-8 including 12-5 in conference action. The point is that we have excellent line value here with just asking the Musketeers to win this game. Amazingly 6 of the 8 Musketeers losses have come by an average margin of defeat of only 1.83 points! The point is that Xavier is a very high-quality team and they are off a tight loss here and I again expect Seton Hall to struggle against an upper-tier opponent. Adding to the value is that the Musketeers are off a loss by just a single point. 10* XAVIER -120/-125 |
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02-23-23 | Grizzlies v. 76ers -3 | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:30 ET - The Grizzlies still without big man Steven Adams and sure could use him here against the Sixers. That said, Memphis is only 4-9 last 13 games and they have gone 11-17 in road games this season. Philadelphia is 23-8 in home games and laying a small number here at home and I feel we have great line value after the downward line move on this one as it opened up around a 5 and has fallen to around a 3 as of late morning gameday. Philly has won 26 of 33 games and gets the cash again here with the SU win covering the small spread in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -3 |
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02-23-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Detroit OVER 139 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 139 in Detroit Mercy Titans vs Northern Kentucky Norse @ 7 ET - The Titans continue to be involved in high-scoring games and just allowed 68 to a bad IUPUI team. The point is that facing a respectable Northern Kentucky team is likely to lead to even more points being scored in this one. The first meeting did go to OT but, even without the OT, the game hit 142 in regulation time. That said, we have excellent line value here as Detroit enters this one averaging 77.4 ppg but allowing 75.8 ppg on the season. I know the Norse have lower-scoring trending but the Titans will dictate the pace of this game on their home floor. Northern Kentucky is facing a Detroit team that, not including OT points of course, has seen nearly ever single one of their games total at least 140 points this season! The Titans have been putting up huge points and, other than one outlier versus IPFW, they have allowed an average of 78 points last 14 games. That does not include OT points either. This game is priced right around pick'em so, given Detroit's knack for finishing in the 70s and 80s for points scored in most games, you can see why I love the over in this spot. 10* OVER 139 in Detroit |
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02-22-23 | Wake Forest +6.5 v. NC State | Top | 74-90 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons +6.5 @ NC State Wolfpack @ 9 ET - Fantastic spot here as Wake Forest is off a 9-point loss at Miami as the Hurricanes just would not miss in that game. Also, the Demon Deacons have revenge here for a 2 point home loss to NC State which is actually one of FIVE losses for WF this season that have come by just 2 points! The fact is that Wake Forest just does not get blown out very often at all and they are actually catching NC State at the perfect time to get an upset win of their own here. The Wolfpack are off a big win over rival North Carolina. They also finish the season with a revenge game against Clemson after this one plus then close it out with big game versus Duke. So this is a true "sandwich spot" game where NC State could look right past the revenge minded Demon Deacons. Prior to that win over Tar Heels, the Wolfpack had played 16 ACC games and only 6 of them were wins by more than a 4 point margin. This game very likely to go down to the wire and could be decided by just a single possession one way or the other late. The fact is potential upset here and definitely great spot for value with the sizable points. 10* WAKE FOREST +6.5 |
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02-22-23 | Minnesota v. Maryland OVER 129.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 129.5 in Maryland Terrapins vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7 ET - Minnesota is 1-14 in Big Ten action and has lost 10 games in a row! But this total is simply too low. You know the Golden Gophers are going to do better than the 46 points they just scored in the home loss to the Terrapins earlier this month. At the same time, you know the Minnesota defense is highly likely to struggle here again, particularly on the road! This Gophers defense has allowed an average of 79 points last 6 losses. That means if the odds makers are right (this line is in the -16 range) and Minnesota allows their recent typical average of 79 points, that puts this game at 79-63 which is more than double digits above the current posted total on this game. As for Maryland, I was very fortunate to win the over in their most recent game as they lost 70-66 at Nebraska in OT. However, in that game, the Terrapins took 69 shots but made only 23 of them! The Terps should have had much more than the 58 points they had in regulation time of that game. Maryland has averaged 72 points per game in their 8 Big Ten home games. Keep in mind, that included home games against 4 ranked Big Ten teams. Here they face the league-worst Gophers and they will pile up the points again. Look for a rather free flowing game here with a ton of points. 10* OVER 129.5 in Maryland |
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02-21-23 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 74-63 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
CBB 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +2.5 @ Oklahoma Sooners @ 9 ET - Red Raiders have won 3 straight games and 5 of last 7. Texas Tech also has revenge from a home loss to the Sooners earlier this season. Oklahoma, other than the OT win over the Red Raiders, has gone 2-11 in their other games in Conference action this season. They are at the basement of the Big 12 standings. Sooners also are off a disappointing OT loss at rival Texas so that could leave them a little flat here. Not only did their win over Texas Tech earlier this season come in OT, Oklahoma also had a 1-point win in Big 12 action over West Virginia. The point is that they have only one convincing win in 14 Big 12 games this season. That said, excellent line value here with the revenge minded Red Raiders plus the points. 10* TEXAS TECH +2.5 |
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02-21-23 | Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 135.5 | Top | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 135.5 in Michigan State Spartans vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 9 ET - The Spartans will have an emotional night tonight in their first home game since the school shooting. Their first road game after the on-campus tragedy was an 84-72 loss at Michigan. I believe this high-scoring trend will continue here. When these teams met at Indiana the game finished 82-69. That was a double digit loss for the Spartans and they will want revenge here. Michigan State has played some ugly low-scoring grinders this season for sure but in the right match-ups, we have seen points aplenty. The loss to Michigan was the 3rd time in recent weeks that the Spartans have allowed 77 points or more. Indiana's game versus Illinois stayed under the total because the Illini were without their leading scorer and had some long scoring droughts in the 2nd half of that game. Indiana has gone through a recent under stretch but the game against the Illini never should have stayed under the total and is giving us some line value here. Prior to the recent under stretch, the Hoosiers had scored 79 or more in 4 of 6 games. They can put up big points again here. Indiana has won 9 of 11 games and averaged 73 points in last 8 victories. Hoosiers score well but of course Spartans are expected to get their revenge. They are favored for a reason. This one will be quite the battle and should also be tight enough late to see both teams scoring well. The one in the lead and the one battling back. Plenty of late points too. A lot of line value here. 10* OVER 135.5 in Michigan State |
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02-20-23 | Kansas v. TCU -125 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play TCU Horned Frogs Money Line -125 vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 9 ET - Mike Miles got hurt in the OT loss at Mississippi State late last month and played only 4 minutes in that game. What does that have to do with this play? A whole lot! After that game he missed the next 6 games and TCU was not the same team without him. He is their top offensive threat. Not including the OT loss he hardly played in, Miles has logged 18 full games this season and the Horned Frogs have gone 15-3 in those games. Also, Kansas has revenge in this match-up plus they are 10-4 in conference play while TCU is only 7-7 so why are Horned Frogs favored here? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. They are favored for a reason and, by the way, rather than laying 2 points here and needing to win by 3 to get the cash, I would recommend a money line play as that is available as low as a -125 as of early Monday morning. Kansas is ranked #5 in the country while TCU is barely in the Top 25 yet Horned Frogs favored in a big revenge spot for the Jayhawks. You know the old saying about "someone must know something" and I feel certain that is the case again here. I like the Frogs angle here with Miles back on the floor as others will look at the losses in 5 of 6 games and think TCU has no business being favored over a Kansas team that has won 4 straight. Remember too that the Jayhawks knocked the Horned Frogs out of the Big 12 tournament in the semi-finals last year. Considering that plus the fact the Frogs now hosting the #1 team in the Big 12 you know the home team is motivated here. 10* TCU -125 |
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02-20-23 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia OVER 143 | Top | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 143 in West Virginia Mountaineers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7 ET - With both teams off recent losses and giving up plenty of points, this one already had my attention. Then, when I looked at it even closer, it really stands out as a great spot for a play on the over in my opinion. The first meeting had a posted total about 5 points less than this and still went under the total by double digits! That said, why would this game have a total more than 15 points above where the first game finished? Well, it is because the odds makers are expecting the same thing I am here...an absolutely fast-paced shootout. Note that the teams both took a lot of threes in the first meeting but combined to make only 29% of them. Also, that 67-60 Oklahoma State win featured horrible shooting from the Mountaineers from the field overall and even at the free throw line too. West Virginia will be much better here at home in terms of scoring plenty. However, do note that WVU has lost 3 straight games and allowed an average of 84 points per game in those 3 defeats! As for the Cowboys, they have lost B2B games and allowed 93.5 ppg in those 2 losses. However, OSU has scored an average of 74 points last 8 games. The Mountaineers are about a 5 point favorite here so that would put this game at 79-74 which is a full 10 points above the current posted total on this game. I'll take it! 10* OVER 143 in West Virginia |
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02-19-23 | Iowa -120 v. Northwestern | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes Money Line -120 @ Northwestern Wildcats @ 6:30 ET - The Hawkeyes are a -1.5 point favorite in most spots so I am recommending to take the money line instead which is in the -120 range. But this is a contrarian play all the way and I love spots like this. Why in the world is Iowa favored here? Exactly! That is why I like them. But, really when you look at this it is likely to fool the markets. The fact is Northwestern is above the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten standings PLUS they are 12-4 at home PLUS Iowa is 3-5 on the road PLUS the Wildcats have revenge here. So all those factors and yet the Hawkeyes are favored? Don't be fooled here ladies and gentlemen. Iowa is favored for a reason and I love the fact that Northwestern had to fight so hard for their win Wednesday night over Indiana. The Cats allowed the Hoosiers to rally from a 19-point deficit and then had to win it on a floater with just a couple ticks on the clock. Northwestern's luck runs out here. Give them credit but still take note of the fact the wins in their current 4-game winning streak by an average margin of only 4 points. The Hawkeyes have won 5 of 6 games and 4 of the 5 wins were by a double digit margin. That includes a 16 point win over the Wildcats and, once again, the Cats will struggle to keep up with the high-scoring Hawkeyes in this one. 10* IOWA -120 |
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02-19-23 | Maryland v. Nebraska OVER 133.5 | Top | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 133.5 in Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Maryland Terrapins @ 5 ET - The Cornhuskers off first win at Rutgers since 2018. The Terrapins off big win over the top team in the Big Ten as they just beat Purdue. That said, this game is set up perfectly for plenty of confidence from the scores and plenty of lax defense on the other end. It is simply a natural reaction after big wins like that and I feel we will see a good flow with this game. In terms of pure numbers, the Huskers have seen 6 of last 8 games (not including OT of course) total at least 135 points. Also, Nebraska has allowed 75 ppg last 8 games and, again, no OT points included in that. At home, the Cornhuskers should score well here but they are not good defensively and the Terps already hung 82 on them when these teams met in Maryland. The Terrapins enter this game having won 6 of 7 games and averaging 74 points in the 6 victories. Maryland favored by about 5 here and based on the above numbers that puts this game at around 75-70 which is more than 10 points above the early posted total. I feel we have good value with the over given the confidence level of each of these teams right now and their ability to get big buckets when needed. Both teams have been playing well lately in that regard as Tominaga is on fire for the Huskers and has come out of nowhere to be a huge scorer and they had 4 guys in double digits at Rutgers. Young continues to be the go to guy for the Terps but they also are getting big games from Scott, Hart, and Reese plus had solid bench support in the win over Boilermakers. 10* OVER 133.5 in Nebraska |
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02-18-23 | Creighton v. St. John's +7.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm +7.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 7:30 ET - I love spots for home dogs like this. Creighton is off a loss to Providence so some will look to back the Bluejays here. However, the Jays are in a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the Big East and they have a game on deck at home versus first-place Marquette on deck! Coming off games against ranked teams in UConn and Providence plus having another ranked team on deck with the 1st place Golden Eagles up next, this is a tough spot for Creighton. Also, the Bluejays hammered the Red Storm ruthlessly when these teams met earlier this season at Creighton as the Jays put up 104 points against them! When a team puts up 100+ on you in a college game you do NOT forget about that team. The Red Storm will be ready to exact revenge here and they are a quality home team. Note that St John's is 11-4 SU in home games this season while the Bluejays are 3-5 SU in road games this season. Yes, the Jays are off a loss and the Red Storm are off a win that came in double OT. However, St John's confidence is growing again with B2B victories and they want revenge here and they catch Creighton in a clear lookahead spot! An outright upset would not surprise me here but I am looking for at least a home dog cover in this one ATS to get us the cash! 10* ST JOHN'S +7.5 |
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02-18-23 | Hofstra -12.5 v. Stony Brook | Top | 68-65 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Hofstra Pride -12.5 @ Stony Brook Seawolves @ 6:30 ET - The formula is simple for Hofstra at this point. Win out and they earn the regular season title for the Colonial Athletic Association. That is because they are currently tied with Charleston for the top spot in the conference but they already beat them (at Charleston!) in their only meeting this season. That also ended a 20-game win streak for the Cougars. The fact is that this Pride team is very strong and I see Hofstra rolling to an easy win here. Their final game of the regular season is next week at home against a weak Northeastern team so there is no way they will look past their final road challenge. Also, Hofstra is facing a Stony Brook team that is off a win and only ONE TIME this entire season have the Seawolves managed back to back wins. Of course you can tell by this line that, indeed, B2B wins unlikely for Stony Brook here. The key is covering this big number but I have no qualms about that because the Pride have made big-margin wins a regular thing for sure! Hofstra has won 15 of 17 games and 13 of the 15 wins by 13 or more points! We can cover this 12.5 as the only only tight wins were versus Towson and Charleston. Those two teams are a combined 24-7 in CAA action this season! The Seawolves are 6-9 in CAA games and 10-18 overall on the season. This is a complete mismatch and the Pride coasted to a 21 point margin of victory in the first meeting. Also, the Seawolves have lost big to the top teams in the conference (and finally face Charleston next week) and Stony Brook should get hammered again here. 10* HOFSTRA -12.5 |
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02-17-23 | Dayton v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 131 | Top | 65-49 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 131 in Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs Dayton Flyers @ 7 ET - This is a tricky spot for the Flyers that should translate to big points. Dayton should still find a way to win and they are a 7-point favorite with good reason here. But note that the Flyers, since they faced the Ramblers in an OT win in Dayton recently, have played 3 straight games against stronger teams including the last two against solid teams in VCU and St Louis. That sets this game up well as a letdown spot. Also, the Flyers and Ramblers combined for 144 points in regulation time of Dayton's 85-81 win two weeks ago. Dayton is fully capable of playing solid defense but I feel their motivation will be a little "off" in that regard after facing VCU and St Louis in the last two games. So here you have a last-place Loyola-Chicago team lying in the weeds so to speak. The Ramblers can, and have, scored well at home this season but the reason they are at the very bottom of the A-10 standings is because they are not exactly known for defensive prowess! Loyola-Chicago is off a 64-62 win over a bad UMass team but, prior to this allowed 80 ppg in regulation time of the 11 defeats in the 2-11 stretch that preceded that! If they give up 80 here and the odds makers are right about the spread that puts this game at 80-73 for 153 points! By the way, not including OT points, the Ramblers are averaging 70.6 ppg at home this season. So again, you can see why I would be projecting at least 140s here for the final score and yet anything in the 130s basically makes us a winner too. I feel given the numbers here as well as the situation (bad team off rare win, good team in a flat spot) it sets up well for lackluster defense and a lot of scoring. 10* OVER 131 in Loyola-Chicago |
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02-16-23 | Wizards +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards +3.5 @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:10 ET - The Wizards got Kuzma back from injury and he had a huge game in a big Washington win in their most recent game. The Wizards have now won 3 of 4 games and are heating up at the right time. Gobert and Anderson are questionable for the Timberwolves heading into this one. Minnesota is at home and a very small favorite so don't let this "tricky line" fool you. Washington is 5 games below .500 on the road this season while Minny is 8 games over .500 in home games this season yet the Wolves are hardly favored here. Looks easy, right? Exactly! Don't be fooled. The Wizards are surging and are the play here as they are also the healthier team here. The Timberwolves also off a big win at Dallas and are 0-4 the last 4 times they were off a win. They have not won back to back games since last month and I look for that trend to continue here. 10* WASHINGTON +3.5 |
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02-16-23 | UCF v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -6.5 vs UCF Knights @ 8 ET - Earlier this season these teams met at UCF and the Knights forced OT with a late 3-pointer. That led to an eventual 3 point win in double-OT for Central Florida in a memorable game that the Tigers certainly have not forgotten. Keep in mind, Memphis was outscored by 30 points from 3-point land in that game and yet still lost the game by only 3 points! Don't be surprised if the Tigers have the better shooting numbers from deep in this one as they are at home where they are 11-1 this season and note that UCF is only 3-4 this season on the road. I feel we have the much stronger team here plus line value considering they are at home and laying a very reasonable number. Note that the Knights, after that crazy 2-OT win over Memphis, then lost 5 straight games! That was followed by a 2-game winning streak that UCF now brings into this game. However, those two victories for the Knights were against teams that are a combined 7-20 in AAC action. Memphis has a 9-3 record in conference games! Yes, they are #2 in the conference and they have a game at #1 Houston on deck. However, there is no way they will look past this revenge game with UCF and they are at home and they catch UCF off a rare blowout win. Memphis brings it every night. That is why their 6 losses have all been by single digits and the average margin of defeat only 3.5 points. They will be ready for payback here at home and UCF gets a quick dose of reality here after taking advantage of a bad Tulsa team in most recent game. Now is back to reality and playing at Memphis is tough. The Tigers get payback here at home. Kendric Davis and DeAndre Williams given the Tigers a great inside-out combo and lead the way here at home as Williams has been playing extremely well and Davis put up 42 points in the last game versus the Knights! 10* MEMPHIS -6.5 |
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02-15-23 | Cavs v. 76ers -2 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers have played 56 games so far this season. That means the 82-game season is more than 2/3 of the way complete and, in this final game before the week-long "mid"-season All-Star break, the Sixers have a chance at big-time revenge. This not just any revenge, this is a big one! The worst game the 76ers have had all season long out of all 56 games is a 28-point defeat at Cleveland way back on the final day of November. No other margin of defeat for the Sixers this season eclipses the half-way mark of that drubbing as their 2nd worst loss margin is 14 points this season. So, the fact is the Sixers have not forgotten that loss and the fact the Cavs shot 60% from the field overall and 50% from three-point land while Philly could not throw it in the ocean that night! It was just one of those nights but what better way to head into the break than with this glorious revenge opportunity? For sure Cleveland is a strong team and for sure the Cavaliers are not going to be push-overs here but the fact is this revenge-minded Sixers team will prove to be the hungrier team. The Cavs started the season 4-1 on the road but they have since gone 9-15 SU in road games! Philly started the season 1-4 at home but they have since gone 21-4 in home games! I have plenty of respect for this Cavaliers team but given this home/road dichotomy and the low line here and the big-time revenge factor, I am all over the 76ers in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -2 |
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02-15-23 | VCU v. Rhode Island +8.5 | Top | 55-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Rhode Island Rams +8.5 vs VCU Rams @ 7 ET - VCU is off a loss and they are the top team in the A 10 so, of course, they are attracting some market attention here. However, it has led to exceptional line value on the road dog here in my opinion. First off, only 2 times out of 6 has VCU - when off a loss this season - responded with a win by more than 4 points! Also, VCU is off big games versus St Louis and Dayton and they have Fordham on deck. Those 3 teams combined with VCU are the top 4 teams in the A 10. Don't be surprised if VCU underestimates Rhode Island here. The betting markets certainly seem to have undervalued RI in this spot. RI actually is 7-5 SU at home this season plus they have wins over La Salle, Dayton, St Bonaventure and Fordham on this floor! The combined conference record of those 4 teams is 30-20 and 2 of those 4 teams are two of the top teams in the conference. None of those teams have a losing conference record on the season. The point is that RI has been quite solid at home this season and it is just their horrible road record that drags them down. Also, we do NOT need them to win this game outright. We just need them to cover a spread that, in my mind, is very inflated for a road team that is in a sandwich spot of big games! 4 of the 5 Rhode Island home losses this season have been by 7 or less points. The average margin of those 4 home defeats was only 4 points! 3 of the 5 VCU road wins by 7 or less points and average margin of victory of those 3 road wins was only 4 points. So big home dog value here in a scheduling spot that is a tough one for VCU who also could be rusty because they have not played in a week! 10* RHODE ISLAND +8.5 |
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02-14-23 | Magic +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 113-123 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic +6.5 or +7 @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:40 ET - This is a high value spot for the Magic. They are off the radar of many because they do not have an overly impressive overall record plus have struggled on the road this season SU. But there is a lot of ATS value in a road spot like this with Orlando. The Magic are "only" 9-8 SU last 17 games but 5 of those 8 defeats were by 5 or less points! That means that, at +6 or more, Orlando would be 14-3 ATS last 17 games! That is why I feel we have exceptional line value here as the Magic just do not get blown out often. Also, if you look at the Raptors, they are 8-8 SU last 16 game but 4 of those 8 wins by 6 or less points! So at the -6.5 or -7 current line as of very early gameday morning, Toronto would be an ugly 4-12 ATS last 16 games! Grab the road dog here as the ultra-competitive Magic should be in this one all the way and, if they do fall short, look for it to be by just a bucket or two! 10* ORLANDO +6.5 or +7 |
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02-14-23 | Missouri +6.5 v. Auburn | Top | 56-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers +6.5 @ Auburn Tigers @ 7 ET - This line has already moved toward Auburn. I do understand the move as they are at home and they catch Missouri off the huge upset win on a last-second 3-pointer at Tennessee. However, Missouri actually led that game big early in the 2nd half and played a very strong game overall against the Volunteers. I know the mindset the betting markets have is now Missouri will be flat off the buzzer-beating win but I disagree. This Missouri team is rock solid this season and playing much better defense and piling up steals. Missouri has won 6 of 8 games and that included 3 wins over ranked opponents. Speaking of ranked teams, this is the first time these teams have met since Missouri suffered a 1-point loss to Auburn at home last season when Auburn had just become the #1 ranked team in the country. This is not the same Auburn team this season and Missouri will get their revenge. Yes, Auburn is still a high-quality team but they actually enter this game having lost 5 of 6 games! So the point is, here you have a match-up of two teams that have been heading opposite directions plus the hotter team is on the road and off a last-second win so you get line value as well as market-inflated value. The other helper on this game is the fact that it is a revenge game! All of those are factors in favor of Mizzou and I love the fact we are getting a half-dozen points here plus the hook. This Mizz team is really starting to believe in themselves and they have a ton of momentum right now. 10* MISSOURI +6.5 |
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02-13-23 | Texas v. Texas Tech +4 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +4 or +4.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 9 ET - The Red Raiders are so much better than their 2-10 Big 12 Conference record shows. That is why they opened as a very small home dog here. Now the line is all the way up to the 4 or 4.5 range and that does not surprise me at all. Texas is a strong team of course and at the top of the conference but this is a rivalry game and it is a revenge game after the Red Raiders lost at the Moody Center in Austin by just 2 points early this season. That tight loss has been a recurring them for Texas Tech this season but they are turning the corner now. They have won 3 of 5 games and are coming off a home win over a solid Kansas State team. That was a tight win over the Wildcats and that does wonders for the Red Raiders confidence as they managed to hang on in a tight game and get the job done. Note that, in addition to winning 3 of 5 games, Texas Tech lost by just 3 points in most recent road game and, against, the loss to Longhorns was by just 2 points! The Horns are 9-3 in Conference games and the Red Raiders are 2-10 so this line looks like a gift to most bettors but we know better. This game priced this way for a reason and we take advantage with a hungry home dog seeking revenge! Keep in mind, 5 of the Longhorns 9 Big 12 wins were very close wins and the average margin of victory of those was just 3 points. I am sensing upset here but note also that UT is just 2-3 in last 5 road games and one of those wins by just 3 points. The Red Raiders have gone to a smaller lineup and are having success with it and forcing a lot of turnovers. Texas has another big rival, Oklahoma, on deck plus that is followed by final 4 games all against Big 12 teams that are currently ranked. So this could be a bit of a trap game for the Longhorns after they already beat Texas Tech this season. This is a payback game for the Red Raiders and I look for them to get their revenge. 10* TEXAS TECH +4 or +4.5 |
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02-13-23 | Rockets v. 76ers OVER 225 | Top | 104-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER 225 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Houston Rockets @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers could finally rest Embiid here but that could lead to a more small-ball run and gun affair. The fact is Philly is off a stretch of 4 games against divisional foes so, of course, those games featured more defensive and were a little bit more "gritty" if you will. Now, they face a non-conference foe that is horrible defensively. That said, we should see a lot of points here because I also do not expect the Sixers to be very intense on the defensive end for this game either. Philly has seen their last 3 games against Western Conference opponents average 254 points. None of those 3 totaled less than 245 points and here we have a posted total of 225 points. I am loving this over as a result. Note that the Rockets have lost 5 straight games and the most recent one was very low-scoring but that is because they faced defense-minded Miami. Prior to that, the Rockets first 4 losses in the 5 games streak averaged 255 points per game. The point is we are talking about point totals well above the posted total on this one and I feel we have phenomenal line value on a game that should be played very freely with a lot of open floor spacing. Not much D in this non-conference battle. 10* OVER 225 in Philadelphia |
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02-12-23 | SMU v. Wichita State OVER 136.5 | Top | 89-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 136.5 in Wichita State Shockers vs SMU Mustangs @ 4 ET - The last time these teams met the Mustangs won 92-67 at SMU. That said, do you think Wichita State will take their foot off the gas here if they have the chance to return the favor and run up the score on their home floor? No, of course not! The Shockers will run and gun here given the chance and the fact is the Mustangs have allowed an average of 79 points last 6 games and have allowed more than 70 points in all 6 of those! As for Wichita State, if you look at their last 8 games and remove the one against Houston (such a strong team), all of the other 7 games totaled at least 140 points! That is more than this total and, not including OT points of course, the average points totaled has been 152 points! I feel we have truly exceptional line value with this total given all the of above variables. Also, the Shockers have allowed at least 66 points in 11 straight games! They are a 7 point favorite here. So if they allow at least 66 which is the LEAST they have allowed in last 11 games plus if the odds makers are correct about the 7 point spread here, you are talking about a game getting to 139 and again, that is at a minimum! The point is you can see why I am expecting at least 140s here and feel we have a better chance of 150s than 130s too given all of the above! 10* OVER 136.5 in Wichita State |
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02-12-23 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Sunday NBA Top Play Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 2:10 ET - Memphis has not been good on the road this season. Boston has been great at home this season. So what gives? Well the fact is this line is priced this way because the Celtics are without Brown and Smart. Those are a pair of key guys that are a big part of the success in Boston. Of course this is still a solid team even without them on the floor. But I am looking for Ja Morant and company to get it done here. Yes the line looks "funny" to most but do not let it fool you. Great upset potential here as the Grizzlies have been getting adjusted to life without Adams for a bit and are off B2B wins and I look for them to keep it rolling here. If they do fall short, look for it to be by just a bucket so the value here is with the points in a big way the way I see it. 10* MEMPHIS +4.5 |
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02-11-23 | Seton Hall +5.5 v. Villanova | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates +5 or +5.5 @ Villanova Wildcats @ 8 ET - I know Seton Hall is on the road for this game but this is still a high-value spot especially after the line move. I have been saying this all season long and it is so true...Villanova is just not the same team they use to be when Jay Wright was patrolling the sideline. The Wildcats have a losing record this season overall plus are just 5-8 in Big East games. Here is the big key with that record too. Villanova's 5 wins in conference action have included St John's (2), Georgetown (2), and DePaul. Those teams have a combined record of 8-34 in Big East games and are the 3 lowest teams in the standings. Even 5-10 (Big East record) Butler beat the Wildcats. Now they are facing an 8-6 (Big East record) Seton Hall team that is off a loss by a double digit margin and has gone 5-1 this season when off a loss by double digits. So the set-up here is perfect, the line move toward Nova is only adding value for us, and the Pirates lost at home to Creighton because the Bluejays made a ridiculous 12 of 20 three pointers! The result is line value in this bounce back spot here. 10* SETON HALL +5 or +5.5 |
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02-11-23 | Jazz v. Knicks -5 | Top | 120-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play New York Knicks -5 vs Utah Jazz @ 7:40 ET - Great situational spot in my opinion as both teams are in a B2B but Knicks are at home and played yesterday in nearby Philly while the Jazz are on the road and were in Toronto last night. The big key here is the situational aspect as New York led the Sixers last night going to the 4th quarter but then lost by double digits. Also, the Jazz were down by double digits against the Raptors heading to the 4th quarter last night but then rallied for the win. Love this as a flat spot for Utah and an extremely hungry spot for the Knicks. 10* NEW YORK -5 |
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02-11-23 | Duke +6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 62-69 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Duke Blue Devils +6 or +6.5 @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 4 ET - Yes the Cavaliers are off huge win versus NC State but the Wolfpack actually had 10 more field goal attempts in the game plus outrebounded Virginia. We are getting line value here because prior to that win, if you look at the Cavs 7-2 run that preceded, none of those 9 teams have fewer losses on the season. Now certainly the Blue Devils are not the same team this season that they typically are. However, they are definitely still a high-quality program loaded with talent and they are off a bad loss that was not a huge surprise as it was on the heels of a huge win over North Carolina. After that big win over rival Tar Heels, the Blue Devils fell short badly in their next game at Miami. However, Duke is 6-0 this season when off a SU loss. The Blue Devils will respond here again off a loss plus you know they want this game badly as it is Virginia that is currently topping the ACC standings and that is a position the Blue Devils are use to occupying. I have a lot of respect for the Cavs but look at the game they are off of and the game Duke is off of. Look at the situation here and the line value. This will be one of the toughest tests the Cavs will have this season and yet the game is not really priced that way in my opinion. I also like the fact that the move here on this line has gone toward Virginia. That means even more value with the underdog Blue Devils. I am expecting Duke to improve to a perfect 7-0 SU this season when off a loss. I do expect the outright upset here. However, I will grab the points with the road dog as added insurance. The play here is 10* DUKE +6 or +6.5 |
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02-10-23 | Knicks v. 76ers -5 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -5 vs New York Knicks @ 7 ET - The Sixers get their revenge here. I do expect Embiid, seemingly a constant on the injury report, to play in this one tonight but would still make this bet even without him. Philly is off B2B road losses and they are 3-0 the last 3 times this season that they have been at home and off consecutive losses. Not only were both losses on the road, they just faced a tough Celtics team in Boston and this was after blowing a 21 point lead in their prior game which was (you guessed it!) at New York. So here they are seeking revenge on the Knicks and they are at home and they are off B2B losses and they catch the Knicks off B2B wins! When Philly lost at New York it had a lot to do with a rare poor shooting night. The Sixers will bounce back here at home where they have been so hot for so long! As for the Knicks, they are off those B2B wins but had lost 7 of 10 overall before that. Also, New York had lost 3 of last 4 road games before getting the big win at Orlando after knocking off the 76ers at home. The Sixers will be "Raining Threes" tonight and the Knicks luck runs out here. Yes they just beat the Magic by 4 at Orlando but they outscored them by 27 points from three point land! In other words, inside the arc in that game the Magic won it by 23 points! Great spot for Philly revenge here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -5 |
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02-10-23 | Kent State v. Buffalo OVER 150.5 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 150.5 in Buffalo Bulls vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 6 ET - The Bulls and Golden Flashes met at Kent State two weeks ago and that game totaled 142 points despite the teams combining to make 12 of 53 from three point land! The point is that, despite poor shooting, thanks to an overall strong pace to the game the teams still totaled over 140 points. We can easily get past the 150 mark with normal shooting in the rematch. In fact the total should get close to a 160 with a normal performance on offense. Both teams recently faced Akron - a strong defensive team - and they each struggled with shooting. However, other than that, Buffalo has scored points like crazy this season. Overall on the year the Bulls are averaging 80 points per game but they also allow 78 points per game! As for Kent State, other than struggling at Akron recently (eliminating that from the equation), they have averaged 78 points per game last 10 games! Also, they have allowed an average of 70 points per game last 4 road games and the Bulls are known for firing away (and connecting!) when on their home floor. Unlike the game played at Kent State, the rematch sees much more normal shooting and - as a result - an absolute shootout expected here! 10* OVER 150.5 in Buffalo |
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02-09-23 | USC +4.5 v. Oregon | Top | 60-78 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
NCAA Thursday 10* Top Play USC Trojans +4.5 @ Oregon Ducks @ 11 PM ET - The Trojans have won 4 straight and 13 of 16 games. Also 2 of those 3 losses were to ranked teams. Not only is Oregon unranked, the Ducks are just 7-5 last 12 games and the first 4 of those 5 losses were to unranked teams. Of course Oregon gets some line shading here for home court but this is just too much here. USC is too strong a team to be getting 4.5 points here in this one. Southern Cal has a great shot at the outright upset here and if they do fall short I would expect it to be by only a bucket or two. Note that the road team won both meetings between these teams last season. Also, the most recent meeting prior to that actually was in the Big Dance in 2021 and USC won that match-up by double digits. The Trojans are playing with a lot of confidence right now and Oregon is off a win but is 2-5 SU the last 7 times when off a win. The Ducks just have not been as consistent this season plus they have Pac-12 leaders UCLA on deck and the Bruins already beat Oregon this season too. So the point is that this is not necessarily a great scheduling spot for the Ducks. As for the Trojans, love their confidence level right now plus the fact they have been off since Saturday. That minimizes the travel aspect to this game and, once again, for the 3rd straight time in regular season action, look for the road team to prevail. I will grab the points here just in case and if Trojans do fall short I would expect it to be by only a bucket or two. 10* USC +4.5 |
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02-09-23 | Suns v. Hawks -4 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks -4 vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:40 ET - As a result of the blockbuster trade between Nets and Suns with Phoenix acquiring Kevin Durant in the deal but losing Johnson and Bridges, the Suns are going to be very short-handed for this game tonight. That is why a line that opened up around a pick'em has shot up to the -4 range and even as high as the -6 range as of very early gameday morning. I am looking for the Hawks to roll big here as the Suns just do not have enough talent to put on the floor in this game to match Trae Young and Atlanta. Keep in mind, the Suns barely beat the Nets at Brooklyn earlier this week and that was with Ayton scoring 35 plus Booker was back and plus they had Johnson and Bridges on the floor. Booker is expected to miss this game as it is front end of B2B and he is recovering from injuries. Johnson and Bridges are on their way to Brooklyn. Newly acquired Durant is injured plus the add-on in the trade was Warren but he will not play tonight. So Suns are super short-handed and Atlanta recently beat them 132 to 100 in Phoenix so you know what is likely here. 10* ATLANTA -4 |
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02-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago +12.5 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames +12.5 @ Southern Illinois Salukis @ 8 ET - This is a very bad scheduling spot for Southern Illinois. Yes the Salukis are at home but they have a huge game on deck at Drake. Yes they already did beat the Bulldogs earlier this season but right now Drake is in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference and the Salukis know that is a big game that is awaiting them Saturday. Not only that, the Salukis lost all 3 games to Drake last season including in the MVC Tournament. That said, the Salukis could look right past this Flames team. Illinois-Chicago is certainly having a rough season but they are off a win and also have been much more competitive for a long time now! That is the key here is the line value with this large number when you consider this is a clear lookahead spot for Southern Illinois. Note that the Flames are just 2-10 last 12 games but only 3 of those losses by more than 10 points and here we are catching a dozen points plus the hook. Also, the last 5 losses for UIC all by 10 or less points and an average margin of defeat of only 6.6 points and one of those was in OT! So none of last 6 Flames games were losses by more than 10 points and this team, off a confidence-boosting win, will be tough to put away in this game. Look for UIC to hang around throughout this game! 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO +12.5 |
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02-08-23 | 76ers +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - I do not think it is a mere coincidence that the Celtics are 3-4 since losing Marcus Smart to injury and the fact that those 3 wins came against below .500 teams (Pistons and Lakers) and a team (Nets) that is currently a dumpster fire. So Boston has not really beaten a quality team in this 7-game run and now faces a very tough test here. Celtics without Smart and taking on a red hot Sixers team that had won 22 of 27 games before loss in most recent game. Definitely Philly was looking ahead to this game when they fell apart in the 4th quarter and lost by double digits at New York. Here at Boston they will be fully motivated and ready to prove the Celtics don't have this division locked up just yet! Also, though Embiid is on the injury report, that has been the case for multiple weeks now and he continues to play through his injury and has been plenty effective plus there has been plenty of time between games recently for Embiid too. The 76ers are 4-0 L4 times when off a loss and also 5-0 L5 times when off a loss by 9 or more points. Boston, without Smart, has recent losses to Phoenix, New York, and Miami teams that all have a winning record on the season. Those 3 teams are a combined 12 games over .500 on the season. But this Philly team is 16 games over .500 by themselves and, once again, the Celtics without Smart struggle and fall short here. I am expecting an outright upset for Philly here but, at the very least, a cover in a loss by the slimmest of margins. 10* PHILADELPHIA +4.5 |
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