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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-24 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 207.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday OVER 207.5 in Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - This total has dropped from its opener and this is a classic case where the long-term history is being given far more credit than the current trending. Yes, the Hornets are certainly known for low-scoring games but they have been playing better of late and scoring better. Also, being on their home floor makes a difference too. At the same time, Orlando enters this game on a 3-game winning streak in which they have averaged 112 points per game. The Magic also are looking to make up for a dud though in their most recent road game. Additionally, the first meeting between these teams totaled 247 points and the Hornets won that one right here in Charlotte. So the Magic, leaders in the SE Division, also have revenge on their minds here. The Hornets are allowing 116.5 ppg last 4 games but also have scored an average of 114 ppg in their last 6 home games. That included facing the Bucks and defensive-minded Memphis and the Lakers too. The point is that Charlotte can score decently at home and they are being under-valued here in that regard. At the same time, revenge-minded Orlando should go off here as well! The Magic have won 8 of 10 and, not including OT points of course, have averaged 114 ppg in the victories. This total is just too low. OVER 207.5 in Charlotte |
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03-04-24 | Blazers v. Wolves OVER 211.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER 211.5 in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Trailblazers @ 8 ET - The Wolves off the 1-point low-scoring loss last night on their home floor and will go all out here against a defenseless foe. Of course that is why they are such a big favorite here and I like the fact that Minnesota has averaged 122 points per game in their 3 meetings with Portland this season. The line on this one is 14 so that would put this game at 122 to 108 if Minny hits their average against the Blazers and if the odds makers are right (as they so often are) with their assessment of the proper spread here. That would put this game in the 230 range and honestly I would not be surprised to see that and for sure, we have a lot of wiggle room with the total posted on this one as you can see. Look for an up tempo game from the T-wolves at home after that grinder last night. They will take advantage of a weaker foe and this one turns into a free-flowing game with plenty of points - yet again - between these teams. All 3 meetings this season between these teams have totaled at least 209 and given the situation here we should eclipse that for sure, just as the last two meetings have eclipsed that as well. The situation boosted by Wolves off a low-scoring loss and Blazers off a confidence-boosting rare OT road win! OVER 211.5 in Minnesota |
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03-04-24 | Queens NC v. Florida Gulf Coast -4 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #306662: ASUN Tourney CBB Monday: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -4 vs Queens University Royals @ 7 ET - This is a conference tournament where the team with the better record gets it on their home court. But I am going to start with talking about road games. The reason is because you can oftentimes tell the better team by how they perform on the road. In this case, on the surface, you have two very evenly matched teams by looking at records. But if you look at how the Eagles performed on the road (including in losses!) compared to how the Royals performed on the road, you will see that Florida Gulf Coast was the stronger team on the road. Not only that, as noted above, now Queens University has to go on the road for this one while the Eagles are on their home floor. It all adds up to solid line value here as Florida Gulf Coast should take this by 5 or more points. The Eagles last 8 home games, and 11 of 13 this season, all were decided by a margin of 5 or more points. I also like the fact that FGC started 3-9 this season but then went 11-8 the rest of the way. Conversely, Queens started the season 6-5 but have since gone 7-13 the rest of the way. Also, 14 of the Royals 18 losses were by 6 or more points this season. While Queens just became division 1 in the summer of 2022, the Eagles have been Division 1 for more than dozen years and have been to the Big Dance 3 times. I like the home team for all the reasons noted above and I also like them for their better defensive play including key hustle stats like steals and blocks in their most recent match-up. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -4 |
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03-03-24 | Stanford v. Colorado -13 | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #852: CBB Sunday Colorado Buffaloes -13 vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET - Colorado has been rolling offensively heading into this game and they are 15-1 SU at home this season. Stanford enters this game off 5 straight losses and with the Cardinal offense quite sluggish. The Cardinal just will not be able to keep up here. The Buffaloes know they are on the bubble and this is also their final home game of the season. You know that kind of effort that will result in for Colorado ... it will absolutely be an intense effort from the hosts here and they pull away for a win by about 20. One of Stanford's better shooters dealing with a wrist injury so that is not helping matters either as the Cardinal slide toward an ugly finish to the season. Not including OT points of course, the Buffaloes have averaged 83 ppg last 3 games - all wins. The Cardinal have averaged just 66 points in their last 5 games - all losses. I do not normally lay big points but this one is screaming blowout rout! Lay it! COLORADO -13 |
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03-03-24 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 221.5 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Saturday OVER 221.5 in Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 6 ET - The Hornets are off loss in which they scored 114 points and they have been much more competitive recently. That said, look for them to score plenty and hang close with this Raptors team favored by 8 points in this one. Toronto should score very well here but is not known for defense. Toronto has allowed at least 119 points in 7 of last 8 games! They allowed 124 ppg in those 7 games. You can see why I am expecting an improving Charlotte team to score well given those numbers. Also, 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams totaled at least 235 points this season. Toronto has averaged 121.5 ppg scoring last 6 games. Given all of these numbers you can see why I am expecting at least 230s in this one. We get a low total here because of Charlotte's long-term reputation but look at their short-term plus look at the long-term of these Raptors. This game will be wide-open! OVER 221.5 in Toronto |
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03-03-24 | Seton Hall v. Connecticut OVER 138.5 | Top | 61-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #815: CBB Sunday OVER 138.5 in Connecticut Huskies vs Seton Hall Pirates @ Noon ET - The Huskies will be relentless in this game. They lost at Seton Hall again this season, just like last season. Now they get revenge at home as a win here locks up the Big East regular season title for them. Connecticut then does not even have to worry about next week's game at Marquette. Of course the Huskies are pretty well locked into winning the title thanks to the Golden Eagles loss yesterday but why not make it official now? Of course the Huskies want to do that and, of course, they are about a 15-point favorite here with good reason. Connecticut shot very poorly against the Pirates earlier this season. That is not happening here at home! The Huskies will score very well here but the Pirates have enough scoring to hang around in this game. Let say Seton Hall only gets to 65, that still puts this game at about 80-65 per the spread on this game and that is mid-140s and we have a posted total that has come down to the upper 130s. Lets take advantage! Seton Hall is off a loss at Creighton but this followed wins in 5 of 6 games and the Pirates scored an average of 76 points in the 5 wins. The Huskies are averaging 81 ppg this season. I like the odds on them getting their average in a revenge spot in which they will be relentless in attacking on the offensive end. The Huskies have averaged 84 points scored in last 8 wins. More of the same here. OVER 138.5 in Connecticut |
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03-02-24 | Gonzaga +2.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 70-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Rotation #801: CBB Saturday Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 @ St Mary's Gaels @ 10 ET - The Gaels already wrapped up the #1 seed for the WCC Tourney that is coming up. They should also have locked up a spot in the NCAA Tourney as well. That said, this game is not nearly as important to St Mary's as it is to Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have not been quite as strong as they usually are but they still showed what they can do in their most recent game with a blowout win courtesy of a huge 2nd half and that was on the road also. Now here they are out for revenge after losing at home 64-62 to the Gaels earlier this season. One of the big keys that night for St Mary's was Joshua Jefferson as he had 25% of their points with 16 points plus had 11 rebounds. He is now out for the season. Further limiting their depth in the paint is 7-footer Harry Wessels is out. The Bulldogs will take advantage here in the paint and they have big-time scorers all over the floor. Yes, the Gaels will try to slow them down but this game belongs to Gonzaga. I love the fact moved from the Bulldogs being a small favorite to now being an underdog of more than a bucket. There is a reason the line was originally set the way it was and the Bulldogs are all set for revenge here. GONZAGA +2.5 |
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03-02-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Denver Nuggets Pick -110 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Lakers have been playing well at home this season including 4 straight wins. However, the Nuggets have won 5 straight overall and are the much stronger team in this match-up. They just beat Miami in most recent game even though Murray was only able to play 14 minutes. Even if he does not play tonight I still like Denver in this spot. But don't be surprised if he does suit up for facing the Lakers here. The Nuggets have 3 straight wins over solid teams in their 5-game run. Although the Lakers have won 4 straight at home, the last 3 wins were against the Wizards, Pistons and Spurs. Those are the 3 worst teams in the NBA with a combined record of 30-149 on the season! Now they face a 40-19 Denver team that is one of the top teams in the NBA and the defending champs. The Nuggets have beaten the Lakers 3 straight time and in both match-ups this season and now they make it 4 in a row and get the season 3-game sweep over this over-rated LA bunch. DENVER Pick -110 |
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03-02-24 | Virginia +9.5 v. Duke | Top | 48-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #733: CBB Saturday Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 6 ET - This is a revenge spot for Virginia. The last time they met Duke it was not just any game, it was the ACC Championship Game last March. They lost the game by 10 but it was a 4-point game with under a minute to go. The Cavaliers had a rough shooting effort in that game and that was the difference but they proved once again that they are capable of slowing down the Blue Devils offensive production. Duke comes into this one hot but look at what they have done against other strong ACC teams, like Virginia, this season. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina, they went 1-1 against Wake Forest (and the win was by 8 points) and they did beat Clemson but only by 1 point. They did crush Syracuse but split against Pitt including losing here at home to the Panthers. This Cavaliers team has not forgotten the ACC Final from a year ago and they play solid defense and the offense, led by playmaker Reece Beekman, looked really strong earlier this week in winning on the road at Boston College. Don't be surprised if this one goes to the wire and I feel we have exceptional value here with such a strong defense getting huge points in this revenge match. Remember too that North Carolina already beat Duke this season and that is the same UNC team that Virginia lost too by 10 but trailed by only 5 with under a minute to go. I just feel this line is absolutely inflated when you consider the Blue Devils performance against solid ACC teams this season. VIRGINIA (+) |
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03-02-24 | Villanova +2.5 v. Providence | Top | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #601: CBB Saturday Villanova Wildcats +2.5 @ Providence Friars @ Noon ET - This one has made a big move toward Providence as Villanova opened as the small favorite here. I understand the move because the Friars have the home court edge here but also feel the odds makers had this one right. The Wildcats have been playing great defense. Other than a loss to a UConn team that is one of the best teams in the nation, Nova has allowed only 54 ppg in their other 6 games since the beginning of February. Villanova won 5 of those 6 games. They'll win this one too! Providence has lost 4 of last 8 games and allowed 77 points per game in their last 6 games since losing 68 to 50 at Villanova. Grab the better defense and the points here in a key game for Big Dance hopes. VILLANOVA +2.5 |
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03-01-24 | Dayton -110 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Rotation #887 CBB Friday Top Play Dayton Flyers Pick -110 @ Loyola-Chicago Ramblers @ 9 ET - This is a huge game and we get line value because the Flyers are on the road. Certainly the Ramblers are a solid team and deserve respect but it is with good reason that Dayton is already more of a consideration for the NCAA Tourney than Loyola in the most up to date projections provided for the Big Dance. In a key game like this I like to have the more seasoned team and the more veteran coach. Dayton certainly is the better program long-term and their coach is Anthony Grant. In the last 5 seasons (including this one) he has a combined record of 108-39! That is a helluva strong record and he will be turning 58 next month. As for the Ramblers Drew Valentine, he is just 32 and is one of the youngest head coaches in Division 1 basketball. Valentine had success in his first season here but a lot of that could be contributed to the Porter Moser regime that immediately preceded him. The true test begins after that first year and some of the prior coach's players are gone. Valentine, in the two seasons (including this one) since his rookie campaign as head coach, has led Loyola-Chicago to a 29-28 record. So the point is that, despite these teams being neck and neck in the A-10 standings this season, I would still argue that the Flyers are absolutely the superior team and have the coaching edge here too which is huge in big games like this. Dayton won both meetings last season including by 16 points here in Chicago despite making just 4 of 18 threes in that game. Certainly Loyola has improved this season but they are 0-3 against solid teams like Richmond, VCU and St Bonaventure. The Flyers opened up as a 2 point favorite here on the road with good reason and I like them even more now that the early line movement has taken this one down to a pick'em. DAYTON Pick -110 |
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03-01-24 | Hornets v. 76ers OVER 212.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Friday Top Play OVER 212.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:10 ET - Tough break for those had the over, like we did, in last night's Hornets vs Bucks match-up. That game had 121 points at the half but then a ridiculous 89 points the rest of the way for a tough loss for those holding over tickets. Tonight should make up for that. I know Charlotte has a lot of low-scoring results but this Philly team has 2 road games on deck and they are coming off an ugly road loss at Boston. The 76ers will be ready to run plenty here at home as they continue play a different type of basketball with Embiid sidelined. As mentioned in prior write-ups, the Sixers traded away defense and grit for more offense and shooting when they were recently active before the trade deadline. Of course in a tough divisional game like they just had against the Celtics the results of that don't necessarily show up. But in a game like this hosting a Hornets team with one of the worst records in the NBA, you will see plenty of attacking from the Sixers offense here. Tobias Harris snaps his scoring slump with a big game against a road-adverse Hornets team. Charlotte had allowed 120.5 ppg L6 road games prior to rare low-scoring games at Portland and Golden State. That was followed by a home and home set with Bucks in which the allowed an average of 117 ppg. The Sixers have allowed 118 ppg since Embiid has been out with the injury after the Warriors game in late January. Sixers will play fast tonight and force the tempo as they look for a big home blowout. Take advantage of the line value as this total has dropped from its opener. OVER 212.5 in Philadelphia |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 86-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #843: CBB Thursday Gonzaga Bulldogs -3.5 @ San Francisco Dons @ 11 PM ET - Unless I missed something, Gonzaga has now beaten San Francisco 28 games in a row in regular season and WCC Tourney action combined. February of 2012 is the last time the Dons knocked off the Bulldogs! Yes, second-placed Gonzaga has season finale with first-placed St Mary's (14-0 in WCC) on deck but this game against 3rd placed San Francisco is more important! Wait a second...how can that be? Well the Bulldogs are not going to catch the Gaels for 1st place in the division but they could lose out on 2nd place to the Dons should they lose this game! Also, of those 28 consecutive wins, only ONE was by less than FOUR points and the current line on this game is 3.5 points. Yes, San Francisco has had a great season but they have 3 losses in the WCC but guess who beat them? St Mary's TWICE and Gonzaga ONCE already this season. The point is that the Dons have not yet proven they can beat the best of the best in this conference! That said, I am happy to put these streaks to the test because the Bulldogs are also on the road here which will help insure the proper focus. They need this game. They know they slip into a tie with the Dons in the WCC should they lose this game. I also like the fact this line opened up in the -5 range but has dropped since then. Lay the short number and know you are taking a team that has absolutely dominated this series for a dozen years! GONZAGA -3.5 |
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02-29-24 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 216 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Thursday OVER 216 in Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7 ET - The Hornets just got destroyed by the Bucks in Milwaukee by a score of 123 to 85. Now the rematch is in Charlotte and I fully expect the Hornets to score much better in this one on their home floor. However, they will again struggle to stop Milwaukee here as the Bucks are showing signs of finally getting it going under new head coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks have won 3 straight and scored an average of 118 points per game last 3 games. The Hornets also had been looking better prior to that ultra ugly shooting performance at Milwaukee. Prior to that, Charlotte had won 5 of 6 games. Also, the Hornets are happy to be back home after a 3 game road trip. Note that the Hornets have scored an average of 116.8 ppg last 5 home games. You can see, based on the Hornets better play of late and scoring numbers at home coupled with the Bucks recent win streak and better scoring as well, this total is just far too low in the 216 range. The Bucks are a 12-point favorite so 216 total means a final in the 114 to 102 range but, based on all of the above, both teams should top that number. In fact, Milwaukee has scored an average of 124 points in their 3 meetings with the Hornets this season. OVER 216 in Charlotte |
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02-28-24 | Virginia +1.5 v. Boston College | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #747 CBB Wednesday Virginia Cavaliers +1.5 @ Boston College Eagles @ 9 ET - The Cavaliers enter this game off B2B losses. Virginia's most recent road game was a disaster at Virginia Tech as the Hokies took that one by a 75-41 final! Those are the kind of losses you don't forget and this is the Cavs first opportunity on the road since that ugly loss in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers enter this one off B2B losses and that is is certainly noteworthy as they have not lost 3 straight games in 3 years! Virginia is on a 5-0 / 100% PERFECT RUN the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games since that instance in Feb of 2021. You know Tony Bennett is going to have his guys ready for this game and we get line value because it is at Chestnut Hill. Yes, Boston College is solid at home but they have also lost to stronger ACC teams here and Virginia is one of the top teams in this conference. Also, the Cavs lost their most recent visit here so they want payback here. While the Eagles are the much stronger team offensively, the defense of Virginia is one of the best in the nation year in and year out under Bennett. The low total posted on this game by the odds makers tells you they expect the same thing I do. That is the fact that Virginia will be able to control the tempo here. If the Cavs get that type of low-scoring game they want they come out on top more often than not. Look for that to be the case again here as they bounce back off rare B2B losing games to take that aforementioned multi-year run to a perfect 6-0! VIRGINIA +1.5 |
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02-28-24 | Grizzlies v. Wolves OVER 209.5 | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday OVER 209.5 in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:10 ET - This total has been dropping and, simply put, it has become too low. We only need 210 to be a winner here. Lets say the oddsmakers are correct, as they so often are, about the spread of 12 in this game. In that case, a total of 210 would mean a final of 111 to 99. Do you really think the Wolves are only to score 111 at home here? I sure don't! Memphis has allowed 121 ppg in going 0-4 L4 road games. But also look for the Grizzlies to bounce back after an ultra lousy home performance in most recent game in which they scored only 86 points. Prior to that one, Memphis had enjoyed a 3-game stretch in which they averaged 110 ppg. So you can see my 121 to 110 range with a Minny win would make sense here given those numbers. I do feel we have a lot of wiggle room here given this low total in the 210 range here. Just how much defense is Minny going to play here when they have tougher games against Sacramento and the Clippers on deck? Also, the Timberwolves have already won all 3 match-ups with Memphis this season. I just don't expect their defensive intensity to be at it's greatest here. Also, those 3 games in the season series have all totaled at least 216 points and averaged 222 points per game. We have got some solid line value here with this low total. Take advantage! OVER 209.5 in Minnesota |
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02-27-24 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 230.5 | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday OVER 230.5 in Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers lost a lot of defense and grit in the recent trades. But Philly is still a very talented team, even with Embiid out, and they can pile up points in the right situation. This is the right situation! The Sixers are facing a division rival they will struggle to stop and this game should turn into a "track meet" up and down the court with quick scoring opportunities. Philadelphia will bounce back from a tough shooting performance in most recent game for some of their bigger scorers. Boston is going to be aggressive on their home floor as they have won 8 straight games and 10 of 11 and they have done it with a lot of offense. Boston averaged 124.5 ppg in those 10 games. The line on this game is currently a -12. That would put this final at about 125 to 113 and honestly I am expecting even a little more as this one gets into the 240s just like the most recent meeting game. In that one the Sixers were without Embiid then too plus Maxey missed with an illness. That game still got into the mid-240s. That was even with Tatum getting ejected late in the 3rd quarter of that game. Boston still scored 125 in that game. Look for plenty of points again in this one as Maxey now available for the Sixers in the rematch. OVER 230.5 in Boston |
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02-27-24 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Rotation #631: Tuesday 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Clemson Tigers @ 7 ET - Though the Panthers are off a win, they lost their prior road game badly so they will be looking to make up for that here. Also, prior to that road loss, they were on a 6-2 SU run in road games. Also, the Tigers are off a home win versus Florida State but were just 3-4 SU prior to this in their 7 most recent home games. The point is that home court is always baked into the lines but, in this case, neither one of these teams has met the traditional home/road dichotomy factors. So we get a little extra value here with the big points available for Pittsburgh. Also the Panthers lost at home to Pittsburgh earlier this season so this is a revenge game for Pitt as well. This is a huge game in terms of the Big Dance hopes for each and I am looking for a very tight game decided by a slim margin. Possible Panthers upset here given their road success this year so having the big points - currently 7.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff is certainly a huge value as well. The Panthers are the better team defensively and they will be fired up after losing their most recent road game by 33 points at Wake Forest. Good teams don't forget defeats like that and this Pitt team is strong. Their other two road losses before that were by an average margin of just 6 points apiece. PITTSBURGH (+) |
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02-26-24 | Heat v. Kings -7 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Monday Sacramento Kings (-) vs Miami Heat @ 10:10 ET - This is a revenge game for the Kings after they lost at Miami 115 to 106 on the final day of January. In that game, Butler and Richardson scored nearly half the points (55) and neither are playing tonight. Also, two other starters - Herro and Rozier - are questionable tonight. Herro had 14 points (plus 8 rebounds and 8 assists) and Rozier had 10 assists in that game. With a much more winnable game tomorrow at Portland and Butler coming back tomorrow, one has to wonder if the Heat might be very conservative with their injury situation here rest Herro and Rozier too. Even if those guys play they are for sure missing Butler and Richardson. I just don't think Miami has enough to hang around here despite the favorable scheduling situation. Yes the Heat have been off and Kings in a B2B after the big divisional win over the Clippers down in LA. However, prior to a 4 point loss in most recent game, 11 of last 12 Miami losses have come by 8 or more points! Those dozen losses by an average of 14 points! So unless you think the very short-handed Heat win this outright, is there really any value in the points? In this case the odds say no and I expect Kings to roll by double digits as they have just too much offense for Miami in this one. The number is currently as low as a 7 as of 16 hours before tipoff! SACRAMENTO (-) |
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02-26-24 | Baylor +2.5 v. TCU | Top | 62-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #889: CBB Monday Baylor Bears (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - The road team has won each of the last 3 meetings. That includes a road win for the Frogs at Baylor in TRIPLE OT four weeks ago. The Bears are out for revenge here and they have won 3 in a row at TCU so being on the road for the rematch is not a big deal. These campuses are less than 100 miles apart. The Horned Frogs have lost 3 of 6 and the 3 wins have come against teams that are a combined 15-27 in Big 12 action this season. Baylor is off an OT loss to a Houston team that is one of the top teams in the country. The Bears are now off tough B2B losses but against tough teams and Baylor had won 5 of 6 prior to that. Also, 3 of those 5 wins were against teams that all are now at least .500 on the season in Big 12 action. In fact, those 3 teams are a combined 59-22 on the season overall. Those 3 wins TCU had were against teams with a combined overall record that is currently 41-40 on the season. I respect the Horned Frogs but love the road trending in these match-ups and the hunger of Baylor coming off that OT loss Saturday! TCU has home losses to Iowa State and Texas already this season and you can add this determined Bears squad to the list after this game goes final. But we will grab the available points - currently 2.5 as of 14 hours before tipoff - just in case though I do not expect to need them. BAYLOR (+) |
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02-25-24 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 225.5 | Top | 92-109 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Sunday OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - I know Trae Young is out for the Hawks but that is why this total is down to as low as a 225.5 as of 9 hours before tipoff. However, did you know that of the 5 games Young has missed this season those games totaled at least 229 four times! The fact is this Hawks team knows only one way to play no matter who is on the floor. This Atlanta team not known for defense and they try to win games with a lethal and quick-strike offensive attack. They know they are catching division rival Orlando here not only in a B2B spot but playing the 3rd game in 4 nights. I look for the Hawks to try and run them right out of of the arena in this one! Yes, Orlando is known for lower-scoring games but they have still allowed an average of 111 points per game last 7 games not including OT scoring of course. Now they face one of the teams in the NBA that tends to get into the highest-scoring games. That said you should be able to safely count on the 120 range here and this line is around a pick'em. In other words this one getting into the 240 range should certainly not be a shock. Hawks games have averaged 245 this season and, as noted above, even when Trae Young is out, the points have still piled up and results have been similar. OVER the total in Atlanta |
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02-25-24 | Purdue v. Michigan OVER 151.5 | Top | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #831: CBB Sunday OVER the total in Michigan Wolverines vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 2 ET - This total in the 151.5 range as of 6 hours before tipoff. The Wolverines will have point guard McDaniel back for this one. Also, they do not have the interior defense to stop Edey. No one does really but the Wolverines are particularly lacking inside. That means he can have a huge day plus when the defense collapses inside to Edey, the phenomenal outside shooting game of Purdue is opened up as well. I could see the Boilermakers defense being a bit lax here. Remember they were off a loss before they faced Rutgers so they gave a little more effort there defensively. But now with Michigan State on deck and with Boilers off a huge bounce back win and now facing the worst team in the Big Ten, this one could be a bit relaxed. The Wolverines will score decently at home but not be able to stop this juggernaut offense. Keep in mind, the Boilers are favored by 14 points. They have averaged in mid-80s this season and why would they not get there against the worst team in the Big Ten. My expectation is they get to 90 which puts this in the 90-75 range. Coincidentally, the Wolverines are scoring 75 ppg this season and so this one getting to mid-160s is certainly possible and we only need to top low 150s to get a winner here! I like our chances! OVER the total in Michigan |
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02-25-24 | Maryland +2.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 63-46 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation#815: CBB Sunday Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Noon ET - This line opened up around a pick'em but is now up to as high as a 2.5 as of 4 and 1/2 hours before tipoff. Of course the markets are all over Rutgers here at home at the low number but why do you think this line was set near a pick'em? Were the odds makers unaware that the Scarlet Knights were at home for this game where they have been strong this season? Of course not! The point is that the odds makers look at this one the same way I do. Maryland is the better team even though they are behind them in the Big Ten standings. This is a revenge game and the Terps get payback for a horrific shooting effort from beyond the arc in the first meeting. Yes Rutgers has a solid defense but so do the Terrapins! Payback game in a chance to move up the Big Ten standings and leapfrog the Scarlet Knights. 10* MARYLAND (+) |
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02-24-24 | Villanova +12 v. Connecticut | Top | 54-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #769: College Basketball Saturday Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 8 ET - As I mentioned in prior write-ups on the Wildcats, they have truly bought into improved defensive play and are doing key aspects of the game well like rebounding well and hustling and forcing turnovers. That, of course, does not mean they beat the #1 team in the nation and defending champion Huskies at Connecticut. But it does mean they hang around in this game and we get key line value here because this line is up near a DOZEN points but when these teams met at Villanova - a 1 point win for Huskies - UConn was a very small favorite. Now they are a little inflated here in my opinion because of coming off the loss. Keep in mind, the Huskies are off a loss which will have many thinking bounce back here but sometimes a team that is so use to winning does not respond as aggressively off a rare loss. After their other two losses this season the Huskies did win their next game each time but by an average of just 7.5 points as a victory margin. The Wildcats have allowed just 55 ppg in their last 5 games! That is not an accident folks, they really have emphasized defense and that won't stop here. Now, of course, the Huskies are a great team but they are over-valued here in a game that will be tight because the Wildcats will continue their tenacious D and they have older players that know how to rise to the occasion in a big game like this. They will not be intimidated. VILLANOVA (+) |
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02-24-24 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -2.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #718: College Basketball: Saturday Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 5:30 ET - The Panthers are in a great spot here. Not only are they off that ugly loss at Wake Forest after winning 5 straight games and 7 of last 8, Pittsburgh also has revenge on their minds here for added motivation. While it may seem like a meaningless game from year ago it is not forgotten. The Panthers were 12-3 and in first place in the ACC at the time and Virginia Tech was just 5-10 but the Hokies got the victory that day. Now Pittsburgh can bounce back at home off the ugly loss plus get revenge for that defeat last year in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is just 1-7 on the road this season. We get line value here with the Panthers because Wake Forest was on fire with their shooting when they blasted Pitt earlier this week. Take advantage of the value here. PITTSBURGH (-) |
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02-24-24 | BYU -115 v. Kansas State | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #639: College Basketball Saturday BYU Cougars (-) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 2 ET - This line is all the way down to -1 as of about 5 hours before tipoff and this has opened up great line value on the Cougars. BYU is even available as low as -115 on the money line which is the way to play this one as we don't need to worry about covering a spread. The fact is BYU is off a win and they have not had a single standalone win this season. They have won 5 of last 7 games and the Cougars will take advantage of facing a Kansas State team that has lost 7 of 8 games. Yes the Wildcats have the home court edge here but the Cougars are the stronger team and dominated the prior meeting at BYU more than the final margin even indicated. The Cougars are the better shooting team, better rebounding team and also average 5 more assists per game than the Wildcats. The Cougars are the stronger more well-rounded team and we get line value because this game is at Kansas State. We will not hesitate to take advantage. BYU (-) |
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02-23-24 | Hornets v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 84-97 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 10:10 ET - This total is in the 229.5 range as of very early game day morning. We get some value because of the Hornets low-scoring ways long-term. This Charlotte team is playing much better of late and is off a road win at Utah to jump start their 2nd half of the season. The Warriors also off a big win versus the Lakers last night. What I like about the line value with this total here is that both teams scored big last night yet each game stayed under the total. Now they are matched up, loaded with confidence, and it is a non-conference match-up in the 2nd day of a B2B where defensive intensity will not be at its greatest! Note that the Hornets have now won 4 straight games and averaged 116 ppg in this 4-game stretch. Charlotte is about a 14 point dog here so that would put this game at 130-116 if they hit their recent scoring average. But can Warriors really get to 130 here? Yes, it is is not beyond the realm of reality for sure! Golden State is averaging 124 ppg L7 home games - not including OT points of course - and now they face one of the overall weaker teams in the league. Overall, GS is averaging 128 points scored per game last 7 games - home or away. Given all of these numbers you can see why I am expecting 240s here and certainly we should see at least 230s. The Hornets will not want to play fast necessarily but the Warriors, on their home floor, will absolutely force them too. But with Hornets playing with more confidence than usual on the offensive end, they will surprise with scoring well here. OVER the total in Golden State |
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02-23-24 | Kent State v. Akron -7 | Top | 70-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Akron Zips (-) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 6 ET - These are nearby rivals and this is always a big game as a result. That said, you might think Kent State is the revenge play here because they lost the most recent meeting at home this season. However, last season Akron had lost its final regular season game (in OT) at Kent State and then also had their season end just a week later when the Golden Flashes knocked the Zips out of the conference tourney! In other words, Akron still views this match-up as including some unfinished business. Also, the Zips are coming off a loss at Toledo which makes this home game extra important in the battle that Akron is in with the Rockets - also playing tonight - for the top spot in the MAC! Kent State is only a .500 team this season and they are a game under .500 in the MAC. Akron is definitely the stronger team and the much better defense and they improve on their 11-2 MAC season record. The Zips have gone a PERFECT 4-0 off a loss ever since that early season 3-game losing streak. Not only that, Akron won all 4 of those games by double digits. Look for the Zips to take that run to 5-0 here with another double digit victory. This line, as of 8 hours before tipoff, is in the 7.5 range and is a strong value here. 10* AKRON (-) |
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02-22-24 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 79-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #769: CBB Thursday Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 8 ET - Off the upset of the Boilermakers, under normal circumstances, Ohio State should be faded here. However, this is anything but normal circumstances! The Buckeyes have had a down season and so they made a rare late-season coaching change. The assistant that took over here had already been at OSU for a few years plus is a long-time guy in terms of Ohio roots both for him and his entire family. The Buckeyes are showing they want to rally around this and are playing hard. There is a reason this line opened up low and then shot up to 4 but is already back to a 3.5 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. The sharps see the same thing I am seeing here too. The fact is the Golden Gophers had lost 6 of 9 before their win by double digits over Rutgers and now lets take a look at that victory. The Scarlet Knights actually had 13 more field goal attempts than Minny but they were done in by poor shooting that night while the Gophers were on fire both inside and outside the arc. Rutgers had more points in the paint plus the Golden Gophers had nearly twice as many turnovers. The point is that the box score proves it was a phony final. It is helping to give us some market value here as there was nothing phony about the Buckeyes win over Purdue! Love the fact that OSU had just 6 turnovers in that game too while the Boilermakers had 14. We get solid line value here as many will be playing Minny and the revenge angle here but this Buckeyes team is rejuvenated. OHIO STATE (+) |
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02-22-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -115 | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers -115 vs New York Knicks @ 7 ET - The Knicks are still without Anunoby and Randle. The Sixers are without Embiid of course but New York down two key players. Unsurprisingly, New York is starting to struggle not having these two guys. The Knicks lost 4 straight before the All-Star break. The Sixers lost at home to Miami before the break but had won 2 straight games - both on the road - prior to that. Now veteran Lowry expected to make his debut in hometown Philly for the 76ers and don't be surprised if the veteran outperforms expectations as he is rejuvenated by being back home and now playing for the Sixers. This is a bargain price on the Sixers as, until the Knicks get healthy again, they are just not the same team that had been streaking red hot. Philly takes advantage of catching rival NY at the right time in the right place! PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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02-22-24 | Rutgers v. Purdue OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #747 CBB Thursday OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET - This total is in the 138.5 range as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Note that this total is kept lower because of Rutgers being a strong defensive team. However, the game at Rutgers still totaled 128 when these teams met even though combined for just 9 of 35 from 3-point land. Now, at Purdue and with the Boilermakers angry off a loss, guess who controls the tempo in this one? Exactly! The home team is going to push hard here after the loss at Ohio State. Note that Purdue has scored an average of 91 points this season when off a loss. Those two games were big wins and, overall, the Boilermakers have been scoring big at home all season long. Purdue is averaging 89 ppg (not including OT of course) in their 13 home games this season. Also, Rutgers is expected to lose SU here of course and even though they are strong defensively, look at the numbers they have allowed in losses this season. They have allowed 77 ppg in losses away from home this season. Now they are going to lose away from home to the best team in the country! Of course the Boilers, given all of the above, should get into the 80s here and this line is around 15. Even if it is only an 80-65 type game that puts this in the mid-140s but truly I expect much more given all of the above and this one should blow away the total as the Boilers respond at home! OVER the total in Purdue |
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02-21-24 | Oklahoma State v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #682 CBB Wednesday Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7 ET - This one is set up perfect as Oklahoma State off a rare big upset win as they beat BYU this past weekend plus they have a huge revenge game with rival Oklahoma on deck this weekend. Also, the Cowboys are on the road where they are 0-7 SU this season! The average margin of defeat in those games is 14 points! They are now in the wrong place at the wrong time as, even though Cincinnati is off a road win, the Bearcats are not happy at all about their two most recent home games. Those were both losses on their home floor (though they faced two tough ranked teams) and so now the Cats will take out their home court payback on a weak Cowboys team that always struggles away from home. This is a rare case where I have hesitation in laying the big number. Yes this one is a -10 as of 7 hours before tipoff but the Bearcats are destined to roll to a rout in this one. Keep in mind the Cats home schedule in Big 12 has been brutal with facing ranked teams in 6 of 7 games. They take full advantage of a rare reprieve here. CINCINNATI (-) |
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02-21-24 | Illinois -7.5 v. Penn State | Top | 89-90 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #659 CBB Wednesday Illinois Illini (-) at Penn State Nittany Lions @ 6:30 ET - This one is set up perfect as Illinois was favored over the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten tourney last season yet lost. The Illini ended up losing all 3 meetings with Penn State last season. You think Illinois has forgotten something like this? Of course not! Adding to the value here is the Nittany Lions are without Kanye Clary. He was their leading scorer and, arguably, their best player this season. He is gone for the season and will be entering the transfer portal. How did it effect the Lions so far? Well, they went on the road and got blasted at Nebraska in the first game without him again. He had been playing sparingly of late and the result of that was being reflected on the scoreboard as well! When he has played less than 10 minutes or missed a game entirely, the Nittany Lions have lost all 4 games and all defeats were by at least a dozen points! Penn State, overall, enter this game having lost 3 straight. Now they face a revenge-minded Illinois team that has won 7 of 9 games and, schematically, matches up very well with PSU on both ends of the floor. That means I can describe this match-up with two words truly...Road Rout! The line is 7.5 as of 6 hours before tipoff. Lay it! ILLINOIS (-) |
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02-20-24 | Pittsburgh +7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 58-91 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 9 ET - This line is in the 6.5 range as of 14 hours before tipoff. Wake Forest is solid but they are still just 5-6 L11 games and also 2 of their last 5 home wins have been by 4 or less points. Now they are laying more than a half dozen points to a Pittsburgh team that has proven to be ultra tough on the road this season. Not only have the Panthers won 5 straight overall and 7 of their last 8 overall, lets talk about their play away from home. Pittsburgh is 7-2 in their last 9 games away from home (one was neutral site) and 1 of the 2 losses was by just 4 points! These are road records we are talking about ladies and gentlemen...Pitt has traveled very well this season! Also, 3 of the 4 recent ones were at Duke, NC State and Virginia. Those 3 teams have an average of 19 wins on the season and the Panthers won at their venue! Yes, the Demon Deacons have revenge for a loss at Pitt earlier this season but WF is off huge games versus Duke and Virginia plus has the revenge match-up with big bad Duke on deck! I would not be surprised to see Wake struggle some here in this spot and nothing comes easy against this Pitt team. They are scrappy and hang around in games and the points are just too much here. Wake has 7 wins since the calendar turned the page to 2024 but only 4 of them (out of 13 games!) have been WF victories by more than a margin of 6 points. Excellent underdog value here. PITTSBURGH (+) |
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02-20-24 | Butler v. Villanova -6 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Butler Bulldogs @ 6:30 ET - Villanova has flipped a switch since an inexcusable loss in double-OT at Butler in late January. The Wildcats never trailed for the entirety of regulation in that game and even led by 14 late in the 2nd half but the game got away from them late and then it was an unreal double-OT loss as the final result. Nova had a "hangover" so to speak (and as to be expected following a soul-crushing loss) and so then lost a tough one in their next game but it was to a tough Top Ten Marquette team. So how did they respond since then? With defense! Villanova has since gone 3-1 and allowed 56 points or less in 4 straight games! You can bet they are going to "D up" again here against the Bulldogs. Yes, Villanova is in a must-win spot and while you can not blindly play "must-win" situations, this one has a lot going for it. The Wildcats are playing to keep their slim NCAA Tourney hopes alive and there has been a buy-in to defense. As for Butler, unlike Villanova, they have not bought into defense! The Bulldogs have allowed more than 70 in all 5 games since the miracle win over the Wildcats. Butler has gone 2-3 in this stretch and allowed an average of 80 ppg in this 5 games stretch! So one team allowing 53.5 ppg last 4 games and playing with revenge and playing at home and they face a team allowing 80 ppg last 5 games. The home team rolls by double digits here and this line is in the -6 range as of 11 hours before tipoff. VILLANOVA (-) |
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02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 126.5 | Top | 41-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
CBB Monday OVER the total in Virginia Tech Hokies vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - The Cavs are off a 49-47 win and one thing comes to mind first when most people are asking about Virginia ... defense! Yes this Cavaliers team, as has so often been the case in recent years, wins games with defense. However, that is truly skewing the posted total on this game as it is only a 126.5 as of about 11 hours before tipoff. Note that Virginia's stellar defensive play tends not to travel! Indeed, the home / road dichotomy is huge on the season. The Cavaliers in true road games this season have allowed an average of 69 points per game! No OT included! Those are per game regulation average points allowed by this stellar Virginia defense. Being on the road has made a huge difference for them all season long. Now they face the rival Hokies at Virginia Tech and the hosts are getting love from the marketplace and up to a 3.5 point favorite in this one. The Hokies want revenge for a 65-57 loss at Virginia earlier this season. If you look at their past 14 games, that is THE ONLY ONE for the Hokies that has totaled less than 132 points and, at Virginia Tech the points will pile up in this one unlike the first meeting at Virginia. Even that one got to the low 120s but on the season Hokies games are averaging 145 points. I am not saying we get to that level but the point is we have a lot of wiggle room here in a game that should get to at least the mid 130s the way I see. 69 to 66 sounds about rate based an all of the above statistical support. OVER the total in Virginia Tech |
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02-18-24 | North Texas +2.5 v. UABÂ | Top | 62-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
CBB Sunday North Texas Mean Green (+) @ UAB Blazers @ 3 ET - Yes, Jones is out for the Mean Green and Noland has missed 4 straight games. However, Jones has played in only 14 of North Texas' 24 games this season. The bigger current injury is Noland but the odds makers knew it when they set the early opener for this one and that was damn near a pick'em. Of course UAB is at home and with the better record and so every one jumped all over the Blazers. I love fading in cases like this as everyone feels UAB is easy money at home. Even if Noland does not come back for this one (decent chance he is back) I do like the Mean Green plenty here. They are the much better defensive team in comparison with the Blazers. Also, they have revenge from an OT loss at home against the Blazers earlier this season. Also, again the "trap line" theory is in effect here. UAB is undefeated in AAC home games this season and yet this line opened near a pick'em. Note that the Mean Green have lost 3 of last 4 road games. This is another one of those classic "someone knows something" match-ups! I love the extra line value here after the line move and I like having the stronger defense on my side plus in full-on revenge mode! Give me the points but we should not need them. NORTH TEXAS (+) |
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02-18-24 | Purdue v. Ohio State +9 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Sunday Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 1 ET - Too many points as this is in the 8.5 range as of 7 hours before tipoff. The Buckeyes just fired their head coach Tuesday. The assistant is taking over and he has been with the program for years and he comes from a family of players and coaches. They have their footprint in Ohio basketball at various levels in this state. Now, I am not saying the Buckeyes are going to beat the Boilermakers here but I do expect a huge response at home after the firing of the coach. Also, Ohio State has lost each of the last two meetings with Purdue in Columbus by just a bucket each. The Buckeyes have a fair amount of size to at least throw some bodies at Edey. The Boilermakers big man is in a class of his own of course but he won't be able to completely dominate here. Plus, is Purdue starting to wear down a little bit? They were down 10 to Minnesota and had to rally in their most recent game. They did and they won by 8 but that was at home. These Buckeyes have underachieved but they are very talented and I expect them to surprise the Boilers here and absolutely turn this into a back and forth slugfest. Give me the big points. OHIO STATE (+) |
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02-17-24 | Colorado -120 v. USC | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #811: CBB Saturday Colorado Buffaloes -1.5 or Pick -120 @ USC Trojans @ 10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade USC. The Trojans are off a win! Since they started the season 4-1, USC has lost 14 of 20 games and only won B2B games ONE SINGLE TIME in this 20-game stretch. I am happy to challenge this bad Southern Cal team to try and win B2B games here. I know the Buffaloes have had trouble on the road this season but they nearly beat a red hot UCLA team a few nights ago. Unlike the Bruins, the Trojans have been cold overall. In other words, strong odds that the Buffs get the win as they take on the much weaker of the SoCal Pac-12 teams this time around! The Buffaloes are off B2B losses and only ONE SINGLE TIME this season have they lost 3 straight games. You can see why I feel the odds, based on this situation, strongly favor the Buffs to prevail. However, if you look at the overall body of work of these two teams in Pac-12 action, you can also see why it is easy to back Colorado here. The Buffaloes are only 5-4 L9 games but 3 of the 4 losses came against teams that are 29-12 in the Pac-12 this season. The point is that Colorado has, for the most part, handled business in the games they are expected to. Now they take on a Trojans team that has just 2 wins last 10 games and the two victories were against teams that are now a combined 9-19 in Pac-12 action. Against teams like the Buffaloes (and including a loss at Colorado) - teams that are currently at least a .500 team in Pac-12 games this season - the Trojans went a sparking 0-7 SU in that 2-8 run. In other words, USC has struggled badly against teams at the Buffaloes level and higher and I fully expect that to continue here given the great situation with Buffs off B2B losses and USC off rare B2B wins! Grab the road team. COLORADO (-) |
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02-17-24 | St. Joe's v. Duquesne OVER 146.5 | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #657: CBB Saturday OVER the total in Duquesne Dukes vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 2:30 ET - Duquesne scored 59 in their most recent loss on the road and coincidentally they are now back home where they also scored just 59 points in their most recent game. That is helping to give us line value with this total here because both teams are going to emphasize offense here. More about St Joseph's impact on that in just a minute but, first off, note that Duquesne's other two recent games saw them win both and average scoring 80 and allowing 70. Now, about those Hawks, St Joseph's loves to run and gun and pays little attention to defense. The Dukes will also be looking for big production on the offensive end considering they have scored just 59 in most recent game and also in most recent home game. The Hawks also off a loss in which they did not shoot well at all. This was a rare ugly game for them on the offensive end. Prior that, and in the Hawks last 6 games since a 71-69 win over this same Duquesne team, all 6 St Joe's games totaled at least 148 points! The total on this one, as of 5 hours before tipoff, is 146.5 points and I love the value here with both teams off ugly performances offensively. Those 6 Hawks games after the win over the Dukes averaged 164 ppg. This why I am projecting no problem getting to the 150s in this one. OVER the total in Duquesne |
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02-17-24 | Creighton -2.5 v. Butler | Top | 79-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
Rotation #611 CBB Saturday Creighton Bluejays (-) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 12:30 ET - This is a revenge game for the Bluejays after they were beaten by the Bulldogs in Creighton by a single point in a very tough beat last month. Now the rematch is at Butler so we get a low number, as low as 2.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff, and I will not hesitate to step in on this one. Butler has had a few very tight wins this season and I feel this has inflated their value a bit. Yes they are at home for this one but the face a ranked foe that is out for revenge and that, on a more consistent basis, is the more dangerous team offensively! The stellar offensive production of Creighton is another reason they have won 4 of last 6 road games and one of those two losses was to #1 ranked UConn! That said, we get excellent value here as the Bluejays are the better shooting team and they catch the Bulldogs off losses in 2 of last 3 games. Not only that, Butler's last 5 wins included the crazy tight win over Creighton and a double-OT win over Villanova in a game they NEVER LED in regulation and a 3 point win over Providence in which Butler scored the final 7 points. Butler's other two wins were against DePaul and Georgetown and those two teams are a combined 1-26 in Big East action. My point here is that, against teams other the Blue Demons or Georgetown, in other words teams with pulse - Butler could very easily be on a 7-game losing streak. Their luck runs out here against revenge-minded and ranked Bluejays team. CREIGHTON (-) |
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02-16-24 | Harvard v. Cornell -8.5 | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
CBB Friday Cornell Big Red (-) vs Harvard Crimson @ 6 ET - This line is around an 8.5 as of 12 hours before tipoff and, though I generally do not lay big points in spread sports, when the situation is right I will not hesitate. In this case you have a Cornell team coming off a rare loss. They are a PERFECT 3-0 this season when off a loss and all 3 wins were by a double digit margin. Also, the Big Red are a PERFECT 3-0 this season in home games in Ivy League action and all 3 wins were by a double digit margin! Cornell also is a PERFECT 7-0 this SEASON in home games! The last time they lost a home game was last February when they lost at home to (you guessed it!) Harvard! Now even though they just beat the Crimson at Harvard recently, that does not diminish the fact they want this game badly on their home floor. Cornell remembers the last time they lost at home AND they have much of that same core group intact this season. Conversely, Harvard had big turnover with their program. The Crimson team this season is a shell of the team that it was last season. That is another reason I am projecting the Big Red to roll big in this one and get that home court revenge they still want! This Crimson team is only 3-4 in Ivy League action this season and the 3 wins were against teams that are a combined 5-16 in league action! Also, one of the 4 losses was to a Brown team that is an ugly 6-16 on the season and just 1-5 against the rest of the Ivy League thus far! Additionally, Harvard has lost all 3 games against upper level teams Princeton, Cornell and Yale AND all 3 losses were by more than a dozen points apiece. This one gets ugly as the Big Red get the home court payback they have been waiting for as their last loss at home was to this Crimson team nearly ONE YEAR AGO to the day. Payback time! CORNELL (-) |
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02-15-24 | Colorado -120 v. UCLA | Top | 60-64 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #801 CBB Thursday Colorado Buffaloes Pick -120 or -1.5 @ UCLA Bruins @ 9 ET - Look at this one and tell me how it is possible the line is set this way? The Bruins have won 7 of 8 games with the only loss to a ranked Arizona team. Conversely, Colorado enters this one having lost 6 of 11 including 3 of last 4. The Buffaloes are also on the road for this game! So, consider all those factors and then consider that Colorado is favored on the road in this game even though the Bruins have been hot and and the Buffs have cooled and UCLA actually is now ahead of the Buffaloes in the Pac-12 standings. Must be some kind of mistake, right? Absolutely not! Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds makers. The fact is the Buffaloes match up very well with the Bruins and also their recent losses have included some very tough match-ups. Now they face a UCLA team they can handle and note that the Bruins recent wins have included 4 against the bottom 4 teams in the standings and when they faced the other team that currently has a losing Pac-12 record (Utes) they lost 90-44 at Utah. Don't let this line fool you. The road team gets it done here! COLORADO Pick -120 or -1.5 |
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02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies +11.5 | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - Current line on this one is 11.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff. With the Grizzlies off a rare win and the Bucks off an ugly home loss, it might seem like the perfect spot to back Milwaukee. However, Memphis has been scrappy even in their losses and I just not see them getting totally blown out at home here in this one. Note that Memphis is only 4-9 SU last 13 games but only two of those defeats were by more than 10 points. In other words, at the current +11.5 being offered here, the Grizzlies would be 11-2 ATS last 13 games! Now look at the Bucks road performances too and, overall, this team has not exactly been setting the world on fire since coach Doc Rivers took over. Note that Milwaukee is only 4-7 SU last 11 road games and 2 of those wins were against a bad Detroit team and NO the Bucks did not win either game by double digits! In fact, Milwaukee's two road wins in this stretch, other than the two over the Pistons, were by 4 against a bad San Antonio team and by 12 at Dallas. So the only truly ultra impressive Bucks road win since the calendar flipped the page to 2024 is just barely above the number posted on this game. I like our chances here when you consider that the win over the Mavericks was the only truly impressive road game in 11 tries for Milwaukee in 2024. Give me the big points here with a scrappy home underdog. 10* MEMPHIS (+) |
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02-15-24 | Wichita State v. East Carolina OVER 138.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #735 CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in East Carolina Pirates vs Wichita State Shockers @ 7 ET - These teams last met in Wichita State and it was a 54-52 Pirates win. The total opened up on this one at 137 but is ticking up to the 138.5 range even though their recent meeting totaled 106 points? Exactly! Someone knows something and we are going to cash in on that too. For one thing the teams hit a combined 8 three pointers in that game and East Carolina had a horrible shooting night overall. The Pirates had 68 shots from the field but managed only 54 points. They will be even stronger in terms of creating scoring chances on their home floor but this time they cash more of them in too. At the same time, the Shockers are out for revenge and they have averaged 75 ppg, not including OT, in their other 8 games since mid-January. In other words, that game against EC was an outlier. Also, the Pirates are generally not a high-scoring team but they are off an 84-72 win on the road and carry momentum home here plus the Shockers have not been known for defense this season for sure. OVER in East Carolina |
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02-14-24 | Iowa +5.5 v. Maryland | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #697 CBB Wednesday Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 8:30 ET - This line up to a 5.5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff and I feel we have excellent value with this high-scoring Hawkeyes team coming off a huge win. Iowa was WAY DOWN against Minnesota but came all the way back late for the 5-point win. Yes that was at home but the Hawkeyes rougher road record has a lot to do with facing some really tough road games this season. Maryland is solid but they are not on par with a number of teams that Iowa has faced on the road already this season. Also, the Terrapins have lost 3 straight and 7 of 11 and they only have 3 home wins over Big Ten teams this season. One of those was against a Penn State team that is now 12-12 this season and another one was against a Michigan team that is 3-11 in Big Ten action this season and is at the bottom of the standings. The Terrapins won't be easy but I truly feel the Hawkeyes have a great shot at the outright upset in this one. The Terps have averaged only 56 points scored in regulation time of their last 3 games. They also enter this game off a really tough double-OT loss while the Hawkeyes enter this one on a much more positive note after their amazing come from behind win over Minnesota. Unlike the struggling Terps, the Hawkeyes have been scoring just fine in recent games and they are averaging 84 ppg this season and are the much better shooting team in comparison with Maryland. Grab the points here but we likely will not even need them! IOWA (+) |
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02-14-24 | Heat v. 76ers -3 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - Sixers out for revenge here from a 4-point loss at Miami earlier this season. Also, the last time these teams met in Philly, the Heat crushed them by nearly 30 points! The Sixers have a great shot at avenging both these defeats right here right now. The Heat are hurting with a couple of injuries plus Jimmy Butler is out on personal leave. To make this situation even more perfect, the short-handed Heat played last night at Milwaukee. Not only that, they smashed the Bucks! They did it by shooting a ridiculous high-percentage from 3-point land in that one. On a B2B situation and also playing with a shorter bench than usual because of missing 3 players for this one, the Heat will struggle with shooting here and likely also fade as the game goes on. Conversely, the Sixers - though without Embiid and Harris - at least are well-rested here. Also, they will have Kyle Lowry on the floor for this one and the veteran is making his home-coming in Philly and played his college ball at Villanova. Don't be surprised if he plays well in what will be an emotional homecoming game for the veteran. The Sixers have been on a home losing streak but they are getting adjusted now with Payne and Hield already becoming solid contributors and Council has been playing well as a role player. Oubre coming off another solid game and Maxey is an All-Star and this Sixers team now won B2B games including beating a tough Cavaliers team at Cleveland. Now it is time to get the home winning going again and they catch the Heat at the perfect time to get a big home win before the All-Star break. Note that Miami is off a win but had lost 9 of 13 games heading into that one. Yes, the 76ers had struggled recently without Embiid but they are starting to figure things out and have the situational edges in this one plus home court. This line is in the 3.5 range as of early game day morning and this is a bargain number! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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02-13-24 | Thunder -3 v. Magic | Top | 127-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Oklahoma City Thunder (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:30 ET - Oklahoma City is laying about 3 points in this one as of 13 hours before tipoff. Overall, as you can tell by the records too, the Thunder are the stronger team. However, the Magic do have the home court edge here. However, what I really like about this play is the fact Orlando has another game on deck against a conference foe, the Knicks tomorrow. Conversely, for the Thunder it is their final game before the break. OKC wants to go into the break with another win! In fact, lets talk about the "another win" theory as it relates to both teams here. The Magic enter this game on a 2-game winning streak but, other than the surprising 9-game winning streak Orlando had earlier this season, they have only had one other 3-game winning streak this season! When the Magic enter a game on exactly a 2-game winning streak they have failed to stretch it 3 games 5 of the 7 times this season! Make that 6 of 8 after this one! The Thunder enter this one off a single win and there has been only one time this entire season they have had just a single standalone win and that was way back in October. In other words, the odds based on season-long trending here certainly favor a Thunder win! Orlando has lost 3 of last 5 games at home against team with a winning record. they are not unbeatable here against quality opposition by any stretch of the imagination. Also, Orlando is just 10-10 SU in non-conference action while the Thunder are 14-4 SU in non-conf action! The better team in the better situation and on the road so the number of points is manageable. Great spot here to take advantage. Lay it! OKLAHOMA CITY (-) |
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02-13-24 | Pittsburgh +6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 74-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - The current line as of about 11 hours before game time for this one is in the 6.5 range which means it is go time with this one! The Cavaliers are red hot but the Panthers have been an anomaly this season as they actually have been stronger on the road than at home. Overall, Pittsburgh is playing very well in ACC action of late with 5 wins last 6 games and the lone loss was by 4 points. In terms of games played away from home, Pitt is on a run of 6 wins last 8 games and those two losses away from home were by 8 points and 4 points. The Panthers rarely get blown out and, with a low total posted on this game, you can certainly project this to be a grinder likely decided by a slim margin. Of course the Cavaliers are known for defense but the Panthers do play well defensively and also have solid perimeter defense which is important against the Cavs. At the other end of the floor, the Panthers have some outside shooters that can help draw the Virginia defenders out and open things up a bit more inside. The Panthers match up well with the Cavs and, in fact, beat the Cavaliers last season. That makes this a revenge spot for Virginia. However, the Cavs just beat a Florida State team that was right behind them and now have Wake Forest, also right behind them, on deck. Could easily see the Cavs underestimating Pitt here and this Panthers team rebounds well, has some solid shooters and they play solid defense. This one goes down to the wire and just might end up in another upset which makes the points invaluable. PITTSBURGH (+) |
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02-12-24 | 76ers v. Cavs OVER 229 | Top | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - As mentioned in another recent totals writeup involving Philly, the Sixers added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne at the trade deadline. Hield is a sharpshooter and they needed a 3-point specialist like him in the worst way. Both he and Payne have already had 20-point games since recently coming on board. However, the key here is all the guys Philly gave up in trades to get guys like Hield and Payne as the Sixers lost a lot of toughness and defense. They are absolutely a different team defensively today than they were just less than a week ago. Of course still without Embiid, the interior defense of the 76ers is already an issue right now. Long-term Philly has been in a bad pattern of allowing too many points...even when Embiid was still playing. Over their last 11 games the Sixers are allowing 124 ppg! Now they are visiting a red hot Cavaliers team that has won 9 straight games and scored an average of 119 ppg in their last 11 games. The Sixers are playing more of a small ball style since the trade and plus being without Embiid. They still have scorers like Maxey and Harris plus guys like Oubre and Council also capable of getting in the 20 point range. But they just do not have size and are lacking interior defense. The Cavs will surely exploit this and yes they get involved in some low-scoring battles at time but look at what Cleveland has done in recent home games! The Cavaliers have scored an average of 129 ppg in their last 4 home games. 5 of L6 Sixers games have totaled more than the 229 range currently set on tis games as of about 10 hours before tipoff. We'll see 230s here at least and truly I would not be surprised to see 240+ given all of the above. OVER the total in Cleveland |
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02-12-24 | Wake Forest +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Monday Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - Duke is one of the most popular teams in sports betting. Just like the Yankees in MLB and Lakers in NBA and Cowboys in NFL, certain situations can result in excellent line value to go against the Blue Devils. Note that the line on this one already has climbed up a bit and Duke is favored by as many as 7.5 as of 12 hours before tipoff. In my opinion Wake Forest is very close to, if not equal, to the level of the Blue Devils this season. These teams are right next to each other in the ACC standings. Also, Wake Forest has revenge from losing their most recent game against the Blue Devils. That was here at Duke and was a very tight loss just like the prior WF visit here. Though the Demon Deacons do not have a great history they have been competitive against Duke in recent seasons. Look for another tight game here and note the value in the big points as Wake Forest is 16-7 this season and 6 of the 7 losses have been by 7 points or less. In other words, Duke is being asked to do something that only one other team has done in 23 games against Wake this season - that is, beat the Deacons by 8 or more points. I just do not see that happening. When you compare the defensive and offensive stats on these two clubs they are very similar. Yes I know Duke is a tough place to play but the Blue Devils only beat a bad Georgia Tech team here by 5 and beat Clemson by only 1 and also lost to Pittsburgh here. So Duke is far from invincible here this season and the Demon Deacons will take this one to the wire! WAKE FOREST (+) |
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02-11-24 | Kings v. Thunder OVER 239 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Sunday OVER 239 in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Sacramento Kings @ 3:10 ET - The Thunder off ugly loss at Dallas last night. They will bounce back here at home and they have revenge against the Kings. However, this Sacramento team comes in running hot and they are high on confidence right. The Kings just knocked off the Nuggets and they have won 7 of 10 games. Sacramento has averaged 124 ppg last 5 games. The Kings however, prior to the huge win over Denver, had allowed an average of 126.5 ppg last 4 games. The Thunder have allowed 135 ppg last two games. The last game between these teams totaled 251 points. Sacramento will look to push the pace here knowing they are the fresher team after a night off and catching OKC in a B2B spot. The Kings have scored at least 120 points in 8 of 11 games. The Thunder are favored by about 4 points here for a reason. That would put this game in the 125 to 120 range and I am expecting at least that here. This one gets well into the 240s. OVER 239 in Oklahoma City |
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02-11-24 | Minnesota +6.5 v. Iowa | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 3 ET - This is another game where I am fading the line move as this one was around a 5 and worked its way up to a 6.5 as of 5 hours before tipoff. The Hawkeyes are off a loss at Penn State. Iowa just can't seem to stop teams yet Minnesota had a rough shooting performance (5 of 29) from 3-point land in the first meeting this season and they were at Minnesota for that one! That means payback here on the road. I know Iowa has won recent meetings but this is not the Iowa of old. They are just not that good this season and lost to an over-rated Penn State team a few nights ago. They will be lucky to win this one let alone cover the spread. The Golden Gophers know this is their chance to take advantage of an Iowa team that is just not itself right now. The Hawkeyes have lost 4 of 6 since beating Minny. The only 2 wins came against Ohio State and Michigan and those teams are a combined 7-19 SU in Big Ten games this season. The Golden Gophers have won 3 straight in Big Ten action and they came against teams that are currently all at .500 or better in Big Ten games on the season. Everyone will be backing the Hawkeyes at home in this one but I am expecting revenge as the hot team stays hot and puts a ton of pressure on Iowa at home in this one. MINNESOTA (+) |
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02-11-24 | Seton Hall +5.5 v. Villanova | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Sunday Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ Noon ET - I know Villanova is in a key must win mode but this team is going to be in a helluva battle just to win this game let alone cover. Seton Hall lost both meetings last season but each defeat by just 4 points. That said, this Pirates team is better than that one was and this Wildcats team is worst than that one was! I know the two wins Seton Hall enters this game off of were both against the worst teams in this conference. Still it is a momentum-builder for Seton Hall. Also, the Pirates are 8-4 in Big East action and have beaten UConn, Butler and Marquette plus they lost to Creighton in Triple OT! In other words, this Pirates team can compete with the better teams in the conference and right now Villanova is one of the weaker teams in the conference. Seton Hall also has wins over respectable teams like Providence and St John's. All those teams I just mentioned have at least 14 wins on the season. Villanova is just 5-7 in Big East action and two of those wins against a bad DePaul team. The other 3 wins included one big win over Providence but the other two wins by a margin of 2 or less points against Creighton and Xavier. The point is that it is very hard to justify the Wildcats being favored by 5.5 points in this one. I also love fading line moves and the line has moved the way of Villanova. Give me the big points which are now near the half-dozen mark. SETON HALL (+) |
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02-10-24 | USC v. Stanford -2 | Top | 68-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #824: College Hoops Saturday Stanford (-) vs USC @ 10 ET - The Cardinal have only allowed more than 89 points once this season in a loss and that was at USC. The Trojans have since gone 1-7 and their only win was against the team (Oregon State) they share the Pac-12 basement with. USC is having a rough run and a down season and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Stanford also lost to the Trojans last season so this is a double revenge spot. Also, the Cardinal are normally strong at home but they are coming off a tough home loss in which they had a rough shooting night and their opponent hit 11 threes. But that was against a hot UCLA team. Now they face a cold USC team. Also, Stanford knows how crucial this game is. After this one they have just 2 more home games out of their remaining 7 games. With a tough 2-game road trip on deck, the Cardinal will come out with a very strong effort here at home. They are normally strong on their home floor and, while neither of these teams is good defensively, Stanford will be the more focused team here at home and looking to avenge a loss in which they allowed 93 points earlier this season! USC has been recently starting freshman Bronny James and, no disrespect intended, but he is just not quite ready to be a starter at USC. It shows how far this program has fallen. The Cardinal lost to UCLA by 8 points but that was because they were outscored by 21 points from three point land and 9 points at the free throw line. That is an unusual 30 point variance for a team on its home floor. The result here is line value as this line has dropped from its opener. Currently just a 2 point line as of about 11 hours before tipoff. Take advantage of the value. Lay it! STANFORD (-) |
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02-10-24 | 76ers -4 v. Wizards | Top | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - This is a bargain price in the -4 range on Philly as of 10 hours before tipoff. Yes the 76ers are struggling but they got Payne and Hield both into action last night and now this is their 2nd game with both on the floor. Also, Maxey should be back for this one but, even if he is not, look at the value in this match-up! Washington has the WORST home record in the NBA as they are just 3-22 SU at home this season. This is a value spot to grab a talented Sixers team that, though without Embiid and dealing with some injury issues, is still a far superior team to this Wizards team. Also, the Sixers have won 4 straight over the Wizards. All 4 wins were by at least 5 points and the average margin of victory was 21 points! More of the same on the way here in a road rout! Make no mistake the Sixers have struggled but the Wizards are having a very rough season and each of their last 29 losses have been by at least 4 points which is the line currently available in the marketplace as of 10 hours before tipoff. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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02-10-24 | Drexel +6 v. College of Charleston | Top | 70-80 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #695: College Hoops Drexel Dragons (+) @ College of Charleston Cougars @ 3:30 ET - Drexel is off their worst loss in CAA action this season. They are still 8-3 in conference games and the two prior losses were by 5 or less points. We are getting value here because this line has gone from a 4 to a 6 in favor of College of Charleston. There has been an over-reaction to the recent struggles of Drexel and we get line value with a very hungry road dog in this one off of B2B losses. This is the first and only meeting between these clubs this season. Note that 6 straight meetings have been by decided by 5 or less points! In other words, tremendous value with this line in the 6 range as of about 5 hours before tipoff. The Dragons ugly loss at UNC Wilmington came down to poor shooting for them and excellent shooting for the Seahawks. Again, that 75-56 loss has created line value here with a Drexel team that is scrappy and was 7-0 in CAA action as of just 2 weeks ago. The Dragons will bounce back here and note that the Cougars are tied with them in the CAA standing but only on a modest 4-3 run and they lost the 3 games against tougher teams. All 4 wins have come against 4 teams with a combined 13-31 record in CAA action. I am not saying Charleston will lose this game outright. But I am saying the Dragons are very undervalued here and they keep this game tight and indeed do have a great shot at the outright upset here. Don't be surprised if this one makes it a 7-0 RUN of meetings decided by 5 or less points! Grab the 6 points here. DREXEL (+) |
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02-09-24 | San Diego State v. Nevada -133 | Top | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
CBB Friday Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 8 ET - The Wolf Pack have revenge here and they have been very strong on their home floor this season. Options on how to play this one include -1.5 at a -115 price or, for 15 cents more, the money line at a -130 price. San Diego State is off a road win but they faced an Air Force team that is 1-9 SU in MWC action this season. Prior to this road victory, the Aztecs had lost 3 straight road games. Also, when the Wolf Pack lost at San Diego State last month by 12 points, the Aztecs had twice as many free throw attempts and outscored Nevada by 15 points a the free throw line. That will not happen again with this game now being at Nevada. The Wolf Pack are ready for revenge here and this a key game to get them right back into the MWC chase for the top spot in the conference. Note 4 teams are 7-3 but the Wolf Pack would drop the Aztecs to 7-4 with a win here and would also improve their own conference record to 6-4. With a lot of basketball still to be played in MWC action, Nevada is still very much alive in the race for top position but this game is a big one knowing New Mexico awaits as well. Having played only 2 home games since mid-January, the Wolf Pack are fired up about being back home for 2 huge home games against the Aztecs and Lobos. Don't expect them to waste this opportunity. Note that the Wolf Pack are 14-2 SU this season in games played either at home or on a neutral floor. Considering that plus the fact the Aztecs had lost 3 straight road games in MWC action before the win at AF, I love the small home fave in this one! NEVADA (-) |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne at the trade deadline. Hield is a sharpshooter and they needed a 3-point specialist like him in the worst way. Even if Hield does not play tonight, a big key here is all the guys Philly gave up in trades yesterday. They lost a lot of toughness and defense. They are absolutely a different team defensively today than they were just 24 to 48 hours ago. Of course still without Embiid, the interior defense of the 76ers is already an issue right now. Long-term Philly has been a bad pattern of allowing too many points...even when Embiid was still playing. Over their last 9 games the Sixers are allowing 125 ppg! Now they are hosting a Hawks team that has allowed 128.4 ppg last 10 games and, of course, this is not including OT points. Atlanta is all about play on the offensive end and with the 76ers currently having played more small ball of late, they have been giving up big point totals as well. The value is there with this one likely to get into the 250s given the numbers above as well as the post-trade situation. Not including OT points of course, the 3 meetings between these teams have averaged 243 ppg this season. That is right about where this total is as of 13 hours before tipoff. However, this total should be even higher when you consider the factors noted above and the recent trending of these two teams. The Hawks have had 8 straight games total at least 242 points and those 8 games, again not including OT, have averaged 258.5 ppg. We'll see 250s here at least. OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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02-08-24 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 224 | Top | 118-95 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Thursday OVER 224 in Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - With Cleveland in a back to back and Brooklyn missing a few players for this one, this total has ticked down. The result is line value on the over. Note that the Cavaliers are a red hot 15-1 last 16 games. Being in a B2B here will not slow them down. Cleveland is off a low-scoring win at Washington yesterday but the game still hit 220 which is not far from tonight's total. The Cavaliers, prior to scoring only 114 against the Wizards, had scored an average of 121 ppg their last 10 games. Thursday's line is a -6 at Brooklyn. Could this game end 121-115 given these numbers? Absolutely and I do expect Brooklyn to bounce back at home off a couple of low-scoring home losses. Knowing the Cavs are in a back to back spot, the Nets will likely elect to push the tempo a little bit more in this one and wear down Cleveland as the game goes on. Even with guys out, the Nets still have plenty of scoring firepower with guys like Bridges, Thomas, Dinwiddie and Claxton. Also, O'Neale has been used more the past two games and averaged 16.5 ppg. The Nets scored 60 points in the 2nd half of their home loss to Dallas Tuesday and they will start faster this time around after a slow start versus the Mavs in that game. 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games have totaled at least 226 points and the Nets had some high-scoring performances in those. They bounce back off the B2B home losses but the Cavaliers stay red hot and that ultimately pushes this game over the total and into the 230s per my projections here. OVER 224 in Brooklyn |
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02-08-24 | Drexel v. NC-Wilmington OVER 137.5 | Top | 56-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #777: CBB Thursday OVER 137.5 in NC-Wilmington Seahawks vs Drexel Dragons @ 7 ET - Drexel is a slower paced team but, even with that, their games have averaged 137 points this season. I expect NC-Wilmington on their home floor to dictate the tempo in this one. Seahawks games averaged 153 ppg this season! Also, this is a revenge spot for the Seahawks and the first game totaled 141 points despite the Seahawks making just 6 of 30 from three point land! Speaking of 20% three-point shooting, the Dragons are off a horrible 4 of 20 performance from downtown in their most recent game, a tight loss at Monmouth. Drexel has done a great job bouncing back from losses this season but the Seahawks are out for revenge on their home floor. I expect a back and forth high-scoring battle here given all of the above. The Dragons have gone 6-1 this season when off a loss and scored an average of 75 ppg in the 6 victories. The Seahawks have won 7 of 8 games and scored an average of 77.4 ppg in the 7 victories. We don't need 75 to 77 apiece here in this one but the fact is solid odds on each team reaching the 70 mark in this one and that puts this one into the 140s. Drexel has scored an average of 77 ppg L6 road games even including the poor shooting effort at Monmouth in most recent game. The Seahawks have allowed 69 ppg L7 games (not including OT of course) so Drexel getting to 70 here is not a big ask and yet the home team is also favored with good reason. Value on the over with this low total. Each of last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled over 140 and each of Seahawks L3 home games have totaled over 145 points! OVER 137.5 in NC-Wilmington |
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02-08-24 | Iowa v. Penn State | Top | 79-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #775: CBB Thursday Iowa Hawkeyes Pick'em or -1 at Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - The Hawkeyes are 2-5 SU in true road games this season while Penn State is 8-3 in true home games this season. That said this line must be a huge mistake, right? Not at all actually as Iowa's most recent road loss - which I fully expect they will bounce back from here - is their only road loss against an unranked foe this season. Their 4 prior losses in true road games were to Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa State and Creighton! All of those teams are Top 25 teams. I love the situation here with the Hawkeyes having lost their most recent road game and catching Penn State off B2B wins. Note the only time this season the Nittany Lions have won more than 2 in a row was way back at the beginning of the season. Penn State started the season 4-0 but faced a bunch of cupcake opponents. The oddsmakers have this game with Iowa at a pick'em or -1 with good reason and I look for the Hawkeyes to have too much offense for the Nittany Lions in this one. Yes, Penn State has that signature home win over Wisconsin but upsets do happen at times when everything comes into place in one game. Other than this, the Nittany Lions other 4 Big Ten wins have come against teams that currently have a combined 16-31 Big Ten record on the season. Penn State, other than the upset of Wisconsin, has gone 3-2 L5 home games but with wins over a struggling Ohio State team and non-conference home wins over Rider and Le Moyne! Remember Iowa lost here last year so they have plenty of motivation here and though the Hawkeyes appear on track for an overall season comparable to last year, the Nittany Lions have regressed and were 9-11 this season prior to the B2B wins. The road team gets it done here. IOWA Pick'em or -1 |
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02-07-24 | UCLA v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 82-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #746: CBB Wednesday Stanford (-) vs UCLA @ 9 ET - The Bruins have won 3 straight games but let's not forget this was followed by a tough 3-9 stretch for UCLA. Included in that stretch was a home loss to Stanford. That will have some looking at the Bruins here with the revenge angle. UCLA, however, is in a tough spot as Stanford is strong on their home floor and the much better club offensively. The Cardinal are averaging 78 ppg compared to the Bruins averaging 66 ppg. Also, Stanford hits 47% from the field while UCLA hits only 42% from the field. Remember too that those shooting variances have a strong tendency to be even more pronounced in the home/road factor as well. So in this case the better shooting team is on their home floor and I look for the Bruins to struggle to keep up in this one. UCLA is 2-7 in their last 9 games played on the road or at a neutral site. Stanford is 1-2 last 3 games but those were on the road. They finally get a home game again and are 8-3 at home this season. The Cardinal are 4-1 at home this season when they are at home and coming off a loss. That includes a win over an Arizona team that is one of the top teams in the country. Now they are coming off a loss at Arizona and I expect them to respond immediately here. UCLA is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Current line is 3.5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Lay it! STANFORD (-) |
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02-07-24 | Creighton -2 v. Providence | Top | 87-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #735: CBB Wednesday Creighton Bluejays (-) @ Providence Friars @ 8:30 ET - Creighton is off a loss and they have only lost B2B games once this season and are actually a perfect 4-0 SU this season when coming off a loss in regulation time. The Bluejays are laying only 2 points here - as of 9 hours before tipoff - and that means most any SU loss will also translate to an ATS win. I like the fact that Creighton had won 7 of 8 prior to that loss. Also, Providence has lost 6 of 9 games. Not only that but 2 of those 3 wins were against Georgetown and DePaul. Those two teams are a combined 1-21 SU in Big East action this season. The Friars, in other words, have been struggling for many weeks now. Also, when they lost at Creighton a month ago by 9 points, their biggest lead was only 2 points while the Bluejays led by as many as 18 in that game. In other words, it was quite dominating and now you can grab Creighton off a loss and facing a weaker foe and only lay 2 points. Count me in! Of course many will look at the revenge aspect for the Friars here but Bluejays are fired up to respond off a loss plus they lost here last season in double-OT so they have some extra motivation here to win at Providence this time around. CREIGHTON (-) |
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02-07-24 | Warriors v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers lost the last meeting a week ago and that is when Kuminga fell on Embiid's knee and the latter is now out for 6 to 8 weeks recovering from surgery. Embiid was already hobbled in that game but that finished him off. That is part of the line value here. This line is all the way up to a 4.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff and it is just too much. Embiid had a horrible game when these teams met last week and the Sixers were also without All-Star Maxey in that game. So we are truly getting some line value here by going against an over-rated Warriors team that just does not travel well. They were horrible on the road last season but then shockingly started this season 5-1 on the road. Sure enough, their normal pattern has resumed and they have gone just 4-11 in their road games since then. Here they face a Sixers team that is off B2B home losses after starting the season 17-6 in home games! Philly is without Embiid but the Warriors also have some injury concerns entering this game as well. Also, Golden State off a win at Brooklyn but the Warriors have not won B2B road games since that 5-1 road run to start the season 3 months ago! As for the Sixers, they have only lost 3 consecutive home games one time this season and that also was all the way back in November as well. The point is we have quite a few strong trends in our favor here plus I also like the situational value here! I expect a huge effort from Maxey and the home team in this one in front of a raucous Philly crowd out for revenge in this one. PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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02-06-24 | Wolves -5 v. Bulls | Top | 123-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8 ET - The Wolves are the much stronger team and this is a reasonable spread to lay. Consider that the Bulls are 8-8 L16 games which does not sound that bad but the only winning team they beat is the Houston Rockets. The other 7 wins were against bad teams like Charlotte (3) and Portland, Memphis, Toronto and San Antonio. As for the Timberwolves, like Chicago, they also have a recent win over Houston and actually beat them twice during their current 11-6 run. The difference between Minny's wins and the Bulls wins however is the fact that Minnesota also has beaten Dallas, OKC, Brooklyn, the Clippers and Orlando during this solid run. Until Chicago truly proves they can step up against top tier competition, that is the big difference between these teams. Also, the T-Wolves are the much healthier team entering this match-up. This line is currently a 5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Lay it! MINNESOTA (-) |
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02-06-24 | Dayton v. St. Joe's +2 | Top | 94-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday St Joseph's Hawks (+) vs Dayton Flyers @ 8 ET - This is a Triple Revenge spot for St Joe's. Not only did they lose the most recent meeting in Philly and in Dayton but also they lost in a neutral site venue last March which knocked them out of the Atlantic Ten tourney. That said, don't let the line on this A-10 match-up fool you on Tuesday. Why is a ranked team that is 18-3 this season and 8-1 in conference action laying just a bucket against a team that is only 5-4 in A-10 action this season? Exactly! The fact is that the Hawks are heating up and they are playing their best basketball of the season and their big man is starting to become a true gamechanger at both ends of the floor also. The play on the wings was already solid for St Joseph's but now that they have the interior presence coming to full strength, they are looking more and more solid with each game. The Hawks have won 5 of 6 games overall and, with only 2 exceptions this entire season (both 3 point losses), they have been unbeatable at home. They also took Kentucky to OT earlier this season and the Wildcats are also a ranked team like Dayton and that game was at Kentucky! The Flyers lost their most recent road game and the Hawks have the edge of a 3rd straight game in Philly as their last "road" was at LaSalle here in Philly as well. Don't let this line lead you astray. This one has upset and revenge written all over it! The line is currently a 2 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. We'll grab the bucket but should not need it! ST JOSEPH'S (+) |
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02-05-24 | Mavs v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 118-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:10 ET - This total is in the 242.5 range as of 11 hours before tipoff. Philly is without Embiid now and that really opens things up in the paint. They tend to play more of a small ball fast paced style when Embiid is not available. That means plenty of scoring both ways! As for the Mavericks, Irving is probable tonight and Doncic is questionable. I expect both to play in this game but either way I do like the over plenty in this one. Note that the Mavericks have allowed an average of 125 ppg last 12 games so don't let the big total scare you away here! The 76ers have allowed 125 ppg last 7 games. The line on this is around a pick'em. In other words 126-125 type game here is not only possible it is probable given numbers like this. Look for both teams to get into the 125 to 130 range here in a typical wide-open non-conference affair played with plenty of pace and continued struggles defensively from both clubs. OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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02-05-24 | Miami-FL +6 v. Virginia | Top | 38-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Monday Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - Certainly I have plenty of respect for Virginia and they are arguably the best team defensively in the nation. However, there is line value here with a live dog catching about a half-dozen points against a Cavaliers team that has had a somewhat friendly ACC schedule so far. Virginia has played 11 conference games so far and 4 of them were against Louisville and Notre Dame and each of those teams are 2-9 in ACC action! Also, the Cavs have played Georgia Tech who is 3-8 and NC State who is 4-6 as well as Syracuse and Virginia Tech and each of those teams is 5-6 in ACC action. So that leaves 3 games against teams that currently (like Miami) have a winning record in ACC action. Those 3 games saw Virginia lose by double digits at Wake Forest and at NC State! They did win the rematch with the Wolfpack here but that 6-point win was in OT. The fact is that Virginia could very easily be 0-3 against teams that currently have a winning record in ACC action on the season and I feel the Canes are vastly undervalued here. The line has moved toward Virginia here so we have even more line value and I am grabbing the points (currently 6 as of 10 hours before tipoff) and expect this to be a great game where the points prove invaluable in a tight finish. MIAMI (+) |
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02-04-24 | Pacers v. Hornets +9.5 | Top | 115-99 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Charlotte Hornets (+) vs Indiana Pacers @ 6 ET - The Pacers have a number of banged up players for this one. Yes, they won by 31 when these teams met in Indiana but they outscored the Hornets by 30 from three point land in that one! Ridiculously hot shooting for the Pacers was the difference in that game. I know it may seem tough to play on a team that has lost 6 in a row and is having a tough season but I am happy to challenge the Pacers to win this game by double digits over the Hornets! Note that Charlotte is the much healthier team and they are at home and the Pacers are on a 4-8 SU run. In those dozen games, Indiana had only 1 win by more than 6 points! This is a tricky scheduling spot for Indiana too because it is a 1-game road trip before B2B home games. Could the Pacers "mail it in" here against a Charlotte team they blasted in the first meeting? I absolutely believe that will be the case and the Hornets will be the hungrier team here at home and the Pacers health issues keep this one from turning into a complete rout. This one decided by single digits. CHARLOTTE (+) |
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02-04-24 | Providence v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 50-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #856: Sunday CBB Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6 ET - Many Wildcats fans in Philly have lost faith in coach Kyle Neptune and are calling for his firing. However, the team is rallying around this and fully support him. The reason they are on a 5-game losing streak is they are not quite the same team they once for sure but also take a deeper look at this run! The 5 losses included one at Butler in double OT and was a game Nova never trailed in. Also, the Wildcats other 4 losses included just one ugly one versus St John's and the other 3 were losses against ranked teams including top-ranked UConn. In other words, the Cats are not as strong as past teams but they certainly deserve a little leeway on the tough recent run. Now they host a Providence team they have double revenge against! This is the first meeting between these teams and last season the Friars beat the Cats in both games in Neptune's first season. In other words, this has not been forgotten and Nova also so hungry for a win in this spot and they are at home. Remember they are 3-1 SU in last 4 home games versus unranked foes! This is a game they can (and will) win. Providence is just 3-5 SU last 8 games and 2 of those wins were against the two worst Big East teams - DePaul and Georgetown. Value here with a reasonable line with a desperate, revenge-minded home team here. Lay it! Payback! 10* VILLANOVA (-) |
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02-04-24 | Temple +10.5 v. Tulane | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #849: Sunday Temple Owls (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - This line is now in the double digit range and it is just too much. The Owls have a sub-par record but they are fighting hard and there is no quit in this team. As a result, they are hanging tight in many of their recent defeats and I expect more of the same here. Temple is just 2-7 SU last 9 games but each of last 3 losses by 6 or less points. Tulane has the better record on the season but, keep in mind, they have not exactly been setting the world on fire of late! The Green Wave have lost 6 of last 8 games and both wins were by 7 or less points. Also, Tulane is off a tough loss at SMU and have a tough game at Memphis on deck. Memphis was a ranked team not too long ago and don't be surprised when this game, given all the situational aspects, is decided by a single digit margin. TEMPLE (+) |
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02-04-24 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 228 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Sunday OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic @ 3 ET - The Pistons expected to have Cade Cunningham back for this one. The Magic scored 123 points the last time they faced Detroit. The Pistons did not score well in that one versus Orlando but they are back at home for this rematch. Detroit has scored at least 120 points in 3 straight games! The Pistons have allowed 122 ppg their last 9 games. Orlando is known for lower-scoring games but the Magic are facing a Pistons team that does not play well defensively but is at home and has been scoring well of late. This one has over written all over it. The Magic off a tight win at tough Minnesota plus have a big divisional game on deck at Miami. In other words, the Orlando defensive play is not likely to be at its best here against the worst team in the league. As of 8 hours before gametime, this total in the 228 range which is a great value. OVER the total in Detroit |
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02-03-24 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Baylor | Top | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation #789 CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) @ Baylor Bears @ 8 ET - The Cyclones have won 11 of 13 games. The Bears are off a win but this followed a 5-5 stretch and was on the heels of 3 straight losses for Baylor. The Bears certainly have revenge on their minds from losing all 3 games to Iowa State last season. However, the Cyclones look like the stronger team this season without a doubt. That said, the Bears laying about 4 points here is just too much because these teams are not equal on a neutral floor in my opinion. Also, Baylor is facing a Cyclones team that is among the best in the nation for steals per game with 11.2 and I look for Iowa State to force enough turnovers here to capitalize and grab the road win. We'll grab the points just in case but note that the Cyclones are looking to make it 4 in a row over the Bears and certainly will have no shortage of confidence in facing Baylor here. 10* IOWA STATE (+) |
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02-03-24 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 136-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 6:10 ET - Yes, the 76ers are without Embiid right now but Maxey is back and lighting things up on the statsheet. Also, this as much a play against Brooklyn as it is a play on Philly. Note that the Nets have lost 75% of their games since mid-December as they are on a 6-18 SU run. Not only that, Brooklyn had 2 of the 6 wins against a bad Detroit team and also a pair of recent wins against currently slumping Houston and Utah teams. So this line is basically saying that because Embiid is out, the 76ers are about the same level of team as the Nets. I completely disagree with current market assessment that on a neutral court these teams are about equal. Yes, even without Embiid, the Sixers are stronger than Brooklyn. Also, the Nets have lost 9 of last 11 road games and one of the only two wins was against the worst team, Pistons, in the entire league! Now the Sixers are back at home where they have won 11 of 14 games and this is a very reasonable number on Philly which has come down from about a half-dozen when it first came out. As of 10 hours before tipoff, this line is in the -4 range. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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02-03-24 | Maryland v. Michigan State OVER 129.5 | Top | 54-63 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #725: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Terrapins @ 5:30 ET - These teams recently met and the game total just 120 points but it was on pace for 152 points based on a 44-32 score at the half! That said, I feel we have a lot of value here with the posted total on this around 130 points as of about 5 hours before tipoff. I do respect both defenses. However, you must also keep in mind that the Spartans are off a big win over their biggest rival, Michigan, and their defense may not be their best here. Also, MSU is averaging 76 ppg this season and Maryland is averaging 70 ppg this season. As you can see, we have some "wiggle room" with this total when you consider scoring numbers like that. The Terrapins have scored at least 69 points in 4 of last 5. As for the Spartans, against teams not named Maryland, they have scored 66 points or more in 12 of last 13 games! Most of those saw Michigan State reach at least the 70 point mark also. I look for both teams to get well past the mid-60s in this one given the above and that gets this team well into the 130s. 10* OVER the total in Michigan State |
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02-03-24 | Rutgers +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #691: Saturday Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ 4 ET - This line is currently as high as a 4.5 as of about 5 hours before tipoff. Rutgers is off a crazy game in which they made just 1 of 17 from 3-point land. I am sure they will bounce back here. The Scarlet Knights have allowed just 66 ppg this season. The Wolverines have lost 9 of 10 games and allowed 83 ppg during this stretch. I like scrappy underdogs that are facing fellow weak teams that have a tendency to not play defense. Look for the Scarlet Knights to force an ugly low-scoring scrappy game and that leads to a great shot at the upset or, worst case, a tight finish likely decided by a single possession. The points are well worth it here. 10* RUTGERS (+) |
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02-02-24 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 221 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Friday OVER 221 in Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:10 ET - Sharpe is still out for the Blazers but what is interesting is that Portland did struggle offensively in the first game without him but what about since then? The Trail Blazers are actually 5-4 SU last 9 games and in their last 10 games without him they did average 113 points per game NOT including OT points of course. Denver is favored by about a dozen points here so that puts this game at 125 to 113 which is well above the 221 total here. I am aware that Jokic is questionable but, if he does not play, a potential small approach here for the Nuggets could serve them well here. That's because the Blazers are playing with a little more confidence now and willing to run and gun and that could play right into Denver's hands in a potential home rout. Statistically, when at home and off a loss, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 110 ppg. In other words, when coming off a loss and playing on their home floor, Denver has shown a propensity to rely more on their offense than defense in terms of bouncing back! The Nuggets are 5-0 L5 home games and average 119.4 during this winning streak at home. Again, look at the spread here, and if Denver hits 120 and wins by 12 that still puts this one into the upper 220s. I am expecting 230s here based on all of the above and the situation. OVER 221 in Denver |
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02-02-24 | Butler v. Creighton -10.5 | Top | 99-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Friday Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Butler Bulldogs @ 9 ET - Butler's most recent game was against Villanova and we had the Wildcats there. The Bulldogs pulled off a miracle with a double-OT win in a game they NEVER LED in regulation and trailed by as much as 14 points in the SECOND HALF of the game. Give Butler some credit but also know that the Wildcats are proving to be a shell of the type of teams they use to be under head coach Jay Wright. Other than that miracle win over a Nova team that is proving to be one of the 3 worst teams in the conference AND an amazing win over Marquette on a rare night in which the Golden Eagles had a rare horrific shooting night, the Bulldogs other 3 wins are against the two worst teams in the Big East. That trio of victories coming against DePaul and Georgetown. The point is that this Butler team is 5-5 in Big East action but I am not impressed. Conversely, the Bluejays are chasing UConn for the top spot in the Big East and they are at home for this one where they are so strong and tend to shoot the ball very well. I also like the fact they have some size inside and this will frustrate Butler and the Bulldogs will struggle to get easy buckets all night long. That is why this is one of those rare instances where I am willing to lay bigger points as this one is a line that is currently in the -10 range as of about 10 hours before tipoff. Lay it! CREIGHTON (-) |
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02-01-24 | Cavs v. Grizzlies OVER 215 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 215 in Memphis Grizzlies vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8 ET - When you look at Memphis and the injury situation then of course you start thinking about a tough time scoring points. However, too much emphasis is being placed on that here and not enough on what the Cavaliers are capable of! Also, the Grizzlies are highly unlikely to again make just 30 of 80 from the field like they did in most recent game. Cleveland tends to play higher-scoring games and I could see this game being rather wide-open. Remember too that Memphis had scored 107.5 ppg in their 4 games prior to that loss. As for the Cavs, they have scored big in winning 11 of their last 12 games. The Cavaliers also have allowed 114 ppg their last 4 games. How amped up defensively do you really think the Cavs are going to be facing a Grizzlies team that is enduring a very rough season? I just can not foresee much effort here from Cleveland in terms of defensive intensity. Instead look for more of a run and gun approach in this non-conference affair and that should yield plenty of points. The current spread on this one is 8 and that puts this final at 111-103 in terms of the total posted on this game. But do you really think the Cavs are only going to get to 111 here? They have averaged 120 ppg last 13 games and now face a struggling opponent. In other words, you can see why I love the value with the low total posted on this one! 10* OVER 215 in Memphis |
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02-01-24 | Drexel -4 v. Monmouth | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #737: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons @ Monmouth Hawks @ 7 ET - The Dragons bounced back nicely from their very first CAA loss of the season (by just 3 points at Towson) by coming up big at home against NC AT & T. The Dragons are a very strong defensive team and they are strong on the offensive boards and they are a very deep team. Those are the kind of gritty teams that can win big games and it is a big reason Drexel is having such a solid season including now 8-1 in CAA action. As for Monmouth, the Hawks did almost upset the Dragons at Drexel last month in CAA action. However, the Hawks shot surprisingly well in that game and Drexel did not and yet the Dragons still pulled out the 4 point win. Also, all 7 of the Dragons CAA wins have been by 4 or more points this season. The current line on this one is a 4 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. Monmouth is not as strong defensively or on the boards or in terms of shooting percentage on offense either. They are 4-4 in CAA action but had lost 4 of 5 (with the only win over a bad Hampton team) prior to coming up with a win versus Hofstra in most recent game. Hofstra has not beaten any of the top tier teams in the CAA either so that win is not ultra impressive. Monmouth will have their hands full here against a Dragons team that already tasted defeat once in their most recent road game and they are very motivated and hungry here as a result in their very next road opportunity as they look to add to an 8-1 conference record. Monmouth just 9-17 SU in last 26 conference games. 10* DREXEL (-)Â |
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02-01-24 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Green Bay OVER 133.5 | Top | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #735: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay vs IUPUI @ Noon ET - This total in the 134 range as of about 6 hours before tipoff. Green Bay a heavy favorite with good reason here but don't be surprised if IUPUI scores well enough to hang around in this one for awhile and that will help push this one over the total. The Jaguars have averaged scoring 75 ppg in their last two road games. However, the issue with this team is they continue to allow far too many points. IUPUI has allowed 81 ppg their last 9 games. So if the oddsmakers are correct, as they so often are, about GB being a 12 point favorite here, that would put this game finishing at 81 to 69 Green Bay if IUPUI allows their typical average. That means we have a lot of wiggle room when you consider this total is in the mid-130s. I do believe GB can get to the 80 point range here. The Phoenix have played 11 games since an ugly loss to Oklahoma back in mid-December. In those 11 games they have gone 9-2 and had only 1 ugly loss. In the other 10 games they averaged 77 ppg and now they face one of the worst teams in the Horizon League. Indeed 81 to 69 sounds about right here! The Phoenix tend to play with a little more tempo on their home floor and I expect that to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay |
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01-31-24 | Florida v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 94-91 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This line has come down from the -7 range down to as low as a -5.5 on Kentucky as of about 7 hours before tipoff. Note that the Wildcats won the first meeting this season at Florida and that was despite the Gators outscoring them by 12 points from three point land. The Cats were an uncharacteristic 5 of 20 from 3-point land in that one. UK still won that game on the road despite the shooting variance. Now they are at home and hosting a Florida team that is just 1-3 in true road games. The only win was against a Missouri team that is having a tough season including 0-7 in SEC games! The point is that the signs strongly point to a home win here but now, what about the all important cover? Well, Kentucky has 15 wins on the season and the 2 point win over Florida and a 4 point win over a ranked UNC team are the only wins they have this season by less than 6 points! As for Florida, their last 4 losses included the 2 point defeat at home versus Kentucky and then 3 losses all by double digit margins! Look for this one to be the next one! 10* KENTUCKY (-) |
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01-31-24 | Bulls v. Hornets OVER 215.5 | Top | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 215.5 in Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - The first meeting totaled 211 and the next one 195 and the next one 214 (not including OT of course). That said, I do understand that this game has a low total on it. However, it opened up at 218 for a reason and is now down to 215.5 and I love the situational value here with the over. The Bulls are coming off a loss and have averaged 118.5 ppg the last 4 times when off a loss. Also, Chicago (not including OT of course) has seen 8 of last 10 games all total more than 220 points! Charlotte is off a low-scoring loss to New York but, prior to this, the Hornets had one ugly game against the Sixers but their other 6 recent games saw them average 116 points! Also, Charlotte is allowing an average of 125 points last 5 games. Prior to the low-scoring loss to the Knicks, 8 of last 10 Hornets games have totaled at least 219 points. Again, you can see the value here with the low number and I love getting additional value on a total when the line has moved further down in situations where it was already quite low to begin with. 10* OVER 215.5 in Charlotte |
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01-30-24 | 76ers +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - I took the over last night in the Sixers game because even if Embiid missed that would mean more of a "small ball" type of game and I liked the Blazers long-term scoring trends at home as I noted in the write-up. I certainly was not shocked that Embiid did not play because he and the Sixers caught flak, including getting the attention the league office, by him not playing the prior game at Denver. From a Philly perspective it was essentially a "see, he really is hurt" statement by having him miss at Portland. I really expect both he and Maxey will return tonight. Even if they do not (though I certainly expect at least one will), note that the Sixers are in a situation that has not lost since November of 2021! Indeed that was the last time the Sixers have had a losing streak of more than 3 games. Since that point in time, Philly is 6-0 SU when they enter a game on a 3-game losing streak! In this match-up they are a dog and I did consider playing the money line here but we'll grab the available points which is currently 3.5 as of early gameday morning. The Warriors are not a strong team. Golden State is dead last in the Pacific and they continue to give up too many points. The Warriors enter this game having lost 10 of 14 games. So in this game GS is what I would term a "false favorite" as they are laying points against a solid Sixers team that will play desperate here no matter who is on the floor. We will grab the points just in case but I do look for that SU multi-year run of the Sixers when on a 3-game losing streak to reach a PERFECT 7-0 last 7 as they come out strong in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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01-30-24 | Wyoming v. Air Force -4 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Air Force Falcons (-) vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 9 ET - Double revenge spot for Wyoming from last season and they are much higher in the conference standings and Air Force has lost 9 of 10 games! That said, why are the Falcons favored by 4 here? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. This Falcons team is the better team defensively, stronger on their home floor and they catch Wyoming off a huge OT upset win over Colorado State where they celebrated as if they just won the MWC Championship! The point is that the Cowboys could be flat here while the Falcons are at home and hungry and then here is another big key that might surprise you to hear. In true road games this season, Wyoming is still winless! The Cowboys are not only 0-7 SU on the road this season, they also have lost all 7 games by double digits! That means they are being asked to do something they have not managed to do in a single road game this season - that is to lose by less than 10 points! Considering this line is a 4 that means this is a go-against Wyoming spot that is a perfect 7-0 this season! Look for this one to make it 8-0 ON THE SEASON as the Falcons also catch the Cowboys off that huge upset win of a ranked team in OT! 10* AIR FORCE (-) |
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01-30-24 | Marquette v. Villanova -125 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats -1.5 -115 or Pick'em -125 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - A number of books have this line at -1.5 but with a little extra juice at -115. That being said, for just 10 cents more it is worth looking at the money line here which is available as low as 125. Note that Villanova is off a game in which they NEVER trailed in regulation time at Butler and led by as many as 14 points in the 2nd half! The Bulldogs rallied including a late bucket to force OT. Then in first OT the Wildcats again looked like they had the game own only to give up late scoring to force a second OT. Villanova then lost the 2nd OT by 7 points and it was a tough loss. Were they on the road again here I might be concerned. But at home and playing with revenge from a double digit margin of defeat at Marquette couple week ago, this is a great spot to back a Wildcats team that has lost 4 straight games. I had to keep looking further back and further back and finally I found out that is has been more than a DECADE since Villanova has lost 5 straight games. Also, the last 10 times that the Wildcats were at home and entering a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, they have won the game all 10 times. Perfect 10-0 SU mark and I just do not see the hungry Cats being denied here. Keep in mind, the Golden Eagles are just 2-2 SU on the Big East road and one of those wins was against a DePaul team that is now 3-17! Also, Marquette lost to the same Butler team that the Wildcats just to in double OT but the Golden Eagles lost by 7 and they were at home for that game. There is a reason that this highly ranked road team is an underdog in this one! Don't let the line fool you. The Wildcats improve to 11-0 SU when in this situation! 10* VILLANOVA -1.5 -115 or Pick'em -125 |
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01-29-24 | 76ers v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 104-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 10:10 ET - The Blazers are in a B2B spot but are finally getting healthier again and I certainly do not expect a repeat of last night's shooting performance which saw them make just 6 of 33 from three point land! The Sixers have a number of guys on the injury report as questionable entering this one but no matter who ends up on the floor for this one, they will be going hard to end a 2-game losing streak and the tempo will be pushed. There have been 4 times this year in which the Sixers were on the road and coming off B2B losses and all 4 of those games totaled at least 242 points. Keep in mind, the posted total on this one as of about 10 hours before tipoff is as low as a 222.5 and so this is a 4-0 / 100% season trend we are testing here in terms of the over given this situation. On the road and off B2B losses the Sixers have responded with a fury offensively all 4 times. With Grant and Henderson back last night and overall better shooting expected tonight at home after unusual debacle yesterday, this should fly over the total. The Blazers had averaged scoring 116.5 ppg in their last 13 home games prior to yesterday's poor effort versus Chicago. This line is 10 on this game. That puts this one at Philly 126-116 given that Blazers average. That puts the total at 242 which is the minimum scored in each of the 4 prior times Philly has been in this situation. In other words, everything is lining up here and looks like a solid value. 10* OVER the total in Portland |
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01-29-24 | Houston v. Texas +5.5 | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 9 ET - Grabbing the +5.5 that is currently available as of about 13 hours before tipoff. When the betting markets are down on a team it is oftentimes the best time to back said team! That is the case here with the Longhorns! Texas has lost 3 of 5 and just lost at BYU by double digits. However, now they are a home dog to a Houston team that is very strong but proving to certainly not be unbeatable. Now, I am not saying the Horns win this outright but I am saying that I certainly will not be shocked if that happens and I feel we have excellent value here with the sizable points available. Remember that Texas won at Oklahoma and beat Baylor in their two games prior to the loss at BYU. All 3 of these teams the Longhorns have just faced are ranked teams and, of course, Houston is as well. However, the Cougars have lost 2 of last 3 road games and those were at TCU and Iowa State. Texas is arguably at a similar level to both the Horned Frogs and Cyclones so, the point is, we have some definite home dog value here. UT hungry off a loss while the Cougars could get caught looking ahead to their next game at Kansas. Yes the Jayhawks are down a little this season but they are still one of the top programs in the country annually and Houston entered the Big 12 this season knowing that Kansas, year in and year out, has a tendency to be the team to beat in this conference. Definite possibility of a lookahead here and Austin will be rocking for this home game! 10* TEXAS (+) |
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01-28-24 | Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 153.5 | Top | 55-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 153.5 in New Mexico Lobos vs Nevada Wolfpack @ 10 ET - The MWC has a lot of strong teams with solid overall records. Certainly the Wolfpack are better than their 3-3 conference record shows. However, this Lobos team is red hot and so strong at home. The way I see it the best way to get involved in this game is the over! New Mexico has already scored 84 points or more in 60% of their games this season. The Lobos enter this game on a 4 game winning streak in which they have averaged scoring 92 ppg! The Wolfpack have struggled a bit in recent games but they still have scored an average of 77 ppg this season. Keep in mind, if Nevada hits their average here and the spread is correct on this one with Lobos about a 9 point favorite, you are talking about a game that gets into the 160s! The Lobos are red hot but have allowed 76 ppg last 5 games. They are not afraid to get in up-tempo games at The Pit in Albuquerque and I look for this one to be an absolute track meet! 10* OVER 153.5 in New Mexico |
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01-28-24 | Suns -115 v. Magic | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line -115 @ Orlando Magic @ 6:10 ET - The Suns opened as a small favorite here but the line has come down to as low as a -1 and now the money line is available as low as a -115 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Grab the money line in this one as that is the value way to play this one at a cheap price. I don't see the Suns losing B2B games. They are off a tough 2 point loss but they had won 7 straight and 12 of 15 games prior to that! The Magic, on the other hand, are also off a loss but that brings Orlando's run to 7-15 their last 22 games! The Magic play in one of the weakest divisions in the NBA while the Suns play in one of the strongest. Orlando is 6-9 SU against Western Conference teams this season. Phoenix is 9-5 SU against Eastern Conference teams. Yes, the Magic would like revenge here for a loss at Phoenix 4 weeks ago but Orlando is just not on the same level as this Suns team. Grabbing Phoenix hungry off a loss is a superb value here with the way this line has come down. We'll fade the line move and lay a very short price with this money line. 10* PHOENIX -115 |
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01-27-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 5:40 ET - The Nuggets are at home and this line has gone from as low as 3.5 to as high as 5.5 points. This is a revenge game for Denver as they lost at Philly earlier this month. However, Embiid is so focused when he is healthy and playing this team and he is ready for this one just like he was in Philly less than two weeks ago. It is the big battle between Jokic and Embiid. In past visits here for the Sixers, Embiid either missed the game or played but was not healthy. The situation this season is different and that will be reflected on the scoreboard as well. The Nuggets are the defending champs and a great team but only 1 of their last 5 games has resulted in a Denver win by more than 5 points. We have some value here with a talented underdog that sees this match-up as a huge game. The Sixers know the NBA title chase ran through Denver last season and that it ultimately could be the same story out west this season. The Sixers must prove they can win here. I do expect Maxey (ankle) to play and, keep in mind, the Nuggets have key players banged up too. That counteracts the impact should Maxey not play in this one. The points are just too valuable here in a game the Sixers can win outright if Embiid keeps playing like he has been. I look for another aggressive game from him here as he looks to again outduel a player, Jokic, that he greatly respects. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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01-27-24 | Villanova +110 v. Butler | Top | 81-88 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #671: Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +110 @ Butler Bulldogs @ 3 ET - The Wildcats have lost 3 straight but are a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. This perfect SU run dates back to last season and I am going money line here. After getting embarrassed at St John's, the Wildcats will be ready to go here. Keep in mind that their other two losses in this 3-game losing streak were both to ranked teams including a 1-point loss to #1 ranked UConn! Prior to this, the Wildcats had won 5 of 6 games including 3 against respectable opponents. This is one of the big keys here because Butler has 4 wins in Big East action but 3 of the 4 were against Georgetown and DePaul and those are the worst teams in the conference. Yes, the Bulldogs did win at Creighton but that is the lone outlier and it only happened because the Bluejays had an unusually poor shooting night. The Jays were unbelievably bad in the shooting department that night. So the point is that the Bulldogs are a bit over-valued coming into this one and the Wildcats are a bit under-valued. We take advantage and the Cats improve to a perfect 5-0 SU last 5 times they have been in this situation. No points needed! 10* VILLANOVA +110Â |
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01-27-24 | North Carolina A&T v. Drexel OVER 142 | Top | 47-62 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #663: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Drexel Dragons vs North Carolina AT & T Aggies @ 2 ET - The Dragons off the tough loss at Towson in a game in which they did not shoot well. Now they are back home in Philly and ready to explode on offense. They are known for shooting much better here and they will be able to run and gun against a NC AT & T team not known for defense. The Aggies can stop no one but they do have a big scorer in Glasper. The key here is he was one of 4 guys in double digits in their most recent game but that was a loss at Delaware in which they allowed 90 points. Drexel will win this one big and they are a huge favorite for a reason, but the value rather than laying about 18 points here is certainly on the over the way I see it. Drexel will be anxious to have a huge game at home and will push the tempo against a bad defense. They will get much better looks than they did against Towson. However, the key here is the Aggies have some scoring power and will at least be willing to run and gun here even at their own detriment. This total has dropped to the low 140s and, for example, if the Aggies only get to 65 points but the spread posted on this one is about right, that still puts this game in the upper 140s. I am looking for a 90-70 type game given the situation and the defensive struggles of NC AT & T continue here. 10* OVER the total in Drexel |
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01-26-24 | Stanford v. California OVER 153.5 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 153.5 in California vs Stanford @ 10 ET - The Cardinal shoot the ball so well and the Golden Bears are on their home floor and are also a high-scoring team. So you have two higher-scoring teams and the team with the lower FG % is on their home floor where they tend to be at their best. That is the perfect ingredients for an over and I believe this total will prove to be too low. Stanford is shooting 48% from the field and they have one rare exception, a 59-53 win, that if it was included in their stats their numbers would be even more impressive in terms of point totals. In their other recent 6 games they have averaged scoring 85 ppg. The Cardinal have allowed 81 ppg in their other 5 recent games played away from home. I would truly not be surprised to see this one get into the 160s and we have a total in the low 150s here. California also has won recent outlier versus UCLA but their other 7 recent games have averaged 157 points. Last year when Cal hosted Stanford, the game totaled 162 points and I expect something similar tonight. 10* OVER 153.5 in California |
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01-26-24 | Thunder +115 v. Pelicans | Top | 107-83 | Win | 115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +105/+110 @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The Thunder have won 4 straight games and they have revenge on their minds here too. They lost at home to the Pelicans back in early November. Look for the road team to again prevail in this one. Oklahoma City has been so hot with 26-9 SU record last 35 games and they have won 5 of last 7 on the road also. New Orleans is off a win at home but had lost 5 of 9 home games prior to that one. In other words, home court has been nothing special for the Pelicans of late and, overall, New Orleans was on just a mediocre 4-4 run last 8 games prior to hitting everything in sight in their unreal 153 to 124 win over Utah in most recent game. This low line is begging for Pelicans money but we will not bite on the bait. Not only are we grabbing the underdog here but we do not even need the points. Avoid laying any juice and grab a little plus money with the money line in this one. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY +105/+110 |
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01-25-24 | 76ers -5 v. Pacers | Top | 122-134 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
NBA 10* Top Play Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers are about 5 to 5.5 point favorites on the road here. Even though Indiana is at home, they will be without Haliburton and also the Pacers just got back from a long road trip. After a long road swing like that, the first game back is almost the toughest. Making it even tougher is when you face a revenge-minded Sixers team that is on a hot streak. I know Harris might be out for the Sixers tonight but they are otherwise looking strong and certainly the Haliburton absence for the Pacers is the big one. Indiana did spring that upset at Philly as noted above but the Pacers outscored the Sixers beyond the arc by 21 points (differential of 7 threes) as the 76ers had a rare tough shooting night from deep. Philly had taken the first meeting this season by double digits and I expect a repeat of that here. The Sixers enter this one on a 6-game winning streak and the average margin of victory has been 11 points per game. The Pacers have lost 5 of 6 games and are a very weak team defensively. In this revenge spot it will be Philly bringing the better defensive effort. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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01-25-24 | Drexel +1.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-70 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #755: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (+) @ Towson Tigers @ 7 ET - I like games like this in which the line flips. Drexel has gone from being a small favorite when this opened to now being a small dog in the 1.5 point range as of about 6 hours before tipoff. Something has to give here as the Dragons are 7-0 in conference play but the Tigers are 8-0Â L8 home games. I like the way this Drexel is such a cohesive group and they have the better numbers on both ends of the floor. The Dragons have a higher shooting percentage on the offensive end and they are one of the top 25 teams defensively in the nation! Towson is solid defensively but not as strong as Drexel and the Tigers offense often bogs down against top defensive units. Home court is important in college hoops especially but the odds makers are certainly well aware of that as well. That being said, the Dragons were installed as the favorite here with good reason. I am fading the line move and rolling with a defensive-minded road dog that has meshed well this season. This team is very cohesive as I noted above and a true "team" that is building a winning culture. Season after season of late the Dragons are looking better and better. Now they sit at the top of the conference and that is not a perch they will give up easily. They are ready for this game and have solid team depth also. 10* DREXEL (+) |
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01-24-24 | Suns -125 v. Mavs | Top | 132-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line -125 @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:30 ET - The Suns are the hottest team in the Western Conference right now and have won 6 straight games. The Mavericks are at home for this match-up so that is keeping this line in check. But Dallas also is dealing with a lot of injury issues and this includes Doncic and Irving. Even if both those guys play they are not 100% and Dante Exum - a contributor for sure - might still be out as well. So two stars and a 20-minute type guy all are question marks here. Phoenix also is seeking payback for the home loss to Dallas earlier this season. The Mavs just have been very inconsistent and they are facing a high-quality revenge-minded opponent that is on a win streak. Until the Mavericks are healthy I expect their struggles with consistency to continue. Revenge is NOT a big angle for me here but it does not hurt either...that's for sure. The big key is the hotter team and the healthier team available at a nice price here. Line on the side as low as 1.5 points as of early game day morning but I recommend the only slightly higher price on the money line to make any Suns win a win at the betting window as well. 10* PHOENIX -125 |
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01-24-24 | Villanova +3.5 v. St. John's | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #723: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (+) @ St John's Red Storm @ 8:30 ET - The Wildcats lost the first meeting at home by double digits this season. It was a 10 point defeat thanks in part to the Red Storm hitting 44% of their threes while Villanova was a horrible 6 of 28 from beyond the arc! Overall in the game St John's hit 48% from the field while Nova hit just 39% from the field. Now we have a nice revenge spot set up here and the Wildcats are hungry but also confident in this rematch. That's because they just put a scare into the #1 team in the country when they nearly upset UConn this past weekend! I know some will look and say that they are spent after a loss like that, the reality is the Wildcats are hungry because they know they almost did it but almost is not good enough of course. They will have great determination here and we can take advantage of a line that was lower but has moved higher on the Red Storm. I love fading line moves like that. Note that St John's has not been great. The Red Storm have lost 3 straight and now face a team that swept them last season and that normally holds the upper hand in this series. Prior to the upset win by St John's earlier this season, the Wildcats had beaten them 6 straight times. The Cats are not what they used to be under Hall of Fame coach Jay Wright but they are showing signs of turning the corner on this season as the 1-point loss to the Huskies shows. I expect an outright win here but we'll grab the points just in case. 10* VILLANOVA (+) |
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