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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-05-21 | Colts v. Texans UNDER 45 | 31-0 | Win | 100 | 37 h 46 m | Show | |
When I see a total in this range on a Texans game, I have to think Under. Houston has the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points, total yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans' poor offensive numbers aren't completely attributable to rookie QB Davis Mills either. They've averaged 15 points and 221 total yards during their last three games since Tyrod Taylor came back. The Colts lead the league in takeaways with 26. The Colts have held five of their last nine opponents to 18 or fewer points. They beat the Texans, 31-3, in the first meeting. Indy is stepping way down in class after surrendering 38 points to the Buccaneers last Sunday. Houston is underrated defensively. The Texans rank 15th in pass defense and are in the top 10 in takeaways. They've held their last three foes to an average of 17 points. Safety Justin Reid, perhaps Houston's top defensive player, returns from suspension. The Under has cashed the last five times the teams have met in Houston. |
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12-05-21 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 47 | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 37 m | Show |
The Lions are a dead nuts Under team with their pop gun attack. Detroit hasn't reached 20 points since opening week. During their last 10 games, the Lions are averaging 14.1 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the Lions' last nine games. D'Andre Swift is the Lions' lone explosive weapon - and he's not likely to play because of a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the Thanksgiving game. Minnesota's defense has been a huge disappointment. Multiple injuries have played a role in this. However, Mike Zimmer is a top-notch defensive mind and his team shouldn't have problems holding the Lions' down, especially considering the mindset of Lions coach Dan Campbell, who wants his team to play low-scoring games. The Vikings will be without their most dynamic player, Dalvin Cook. He's sidelined with a shoulder injury. That ensures a heavy workload for plodding Alexander Mattison, a North/South type runner good for the Under. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line. Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games. The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington. |
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11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | 10-16 | Loss | -101 | 93 h 31 m | Show | |
The Ravens don't cover as favorites. Baltimore has failed to cover seven of the past eight times as chalk. The Ravens have squeaked out five victories this season by an average winning margin of three points. So I'm happy to take points with Cleveland in this division matchup. Lamar Jackson is the big star. But I give the Browns a huge checkmark in the trenches. They lead the AFC with 29 sacks. Myles Garrett is No. 1 in the NFL with 13 sacks. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football. The Ravens are without left tackle Ronnie Stanley, their best offensive lineman, and they have nothing but garbage at running back with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both out for the season. If you discount their performance against the Patriots two weeks ago, the Browns have yielded an average of just 13.7 points in their last four games. Nick Chubb gives the Browns the best running back. Kareem Hunt is expected to play after being on IR with a calf injury. This outstanding 1-2 punch - maybe the best in the league - takes the pressure off Baker Mayfield. |
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11-28-21 | Rams -110 v. Packers | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 39 m | Show | |
The Rams have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Packers eliminated them in the playoffs, 32-18, last January. If you recall the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp for that game and Aaron Donald was just a shell of himself suffering from broken ribs. Oh yeah, the Rams QB back then was Jared Goff. This time around Kupp and Donald are at full strength. The Rams' QB situation is immeasurably improved with Matthew Stafford instead of Goff. The Rams have had two weeks, too, to rest and prepare. This should help newly acquired Odell Beckham Jr. get up to speed in Sean McVay's offense. The Packers are minus two of their three best defensive players with cornerback Jaire Alexander and linebacker Za'Darius Smith out. Emerging pass rusher Rashan Gary also isn't likely to play. The Vikings exposed the overachieving Packers defense scoring 34 points on them last week. LA has permitted only 15 sacks. I see Stafford having ample time to pick apart Green Bay's secondary. Donald is going to cause havoc to the Packers' offensive line, which is missing their two best linemen with David Bakhitari and Elgton Jenkins out. The Packers also are without their starting center, Josh Myers. Right now the Packers' left tackle is third-stringer Yosh Nijman. Special teams continue to plague the Packers, too. Mason Crosby could be at the end of the line having missed eight of his last 14 field goal attempts. |
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11-28-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Bengals | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 20 m | Show | |
Yes, the Bengals are improved. They are not improved enough, however, to be trusted to cover margins in division matchups like this one. Prior to beating the sinking Raiders last week, the Bengals had lost straight-up to the Jets and to the Browns by 25 points. The Steelers have covered 72 percent of the time they've been 'dogs during the past 26 instances. Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh back in Week 3. It was just the second time in the last 13 meetings the Bengals beat the Steelers. Cincinnati hasn't swept Pittsburgh since 2009. Pittsburgh's defense looked bad against the Chargers last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Steelers were minus T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden in that game. All three are expected back this week. Watt, in particular, makes a huge difference. Fitzpatrick could be their second-best defender next to Watt and Haden is their top cornerback. Watt missed the first game against the Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offensive line have been playing better. Roethlisberger has a 104.3 QB rating the past five games, while throwing nine TD passes and no interceptions during this span. |
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11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts UNDER 53.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 47 m | Show | |
The marketplace is betting this game up. I understand Jonathan Taylor is the hottest running back in the NFL and Tom Brady leads the league with 29 TD passes. I just disagree with the move.  There are key elements that are not being fully accounted for such as the Buccaneers having the No. 1 run defense in the league giving up 78.4 yards on the ground. The Buccaneers are healthier on defense, too. Cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is off the injured list. There's a strong chance cornerback Carlton Davis and nose guard Vita Vea play, too, after being out. I regard Tampa Bay's linebackers as among the best if not the best.  I don't trust Carson Wentz if Taylor isn't able to do the heavy lifting. The Colts also could be without their best offensive lineman as stud guard Quenton Nelson is questionable with an ankle injury.   The Colts rank 11th in scoring defense. They are the best in taking the ball away forcing a league-high 24 turnovers. Indy has forced at least one turnover in 12 consecutive games.  These defenses are not being given enough credit.Â
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11-28-21 | Titans v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 13-36 | Win | 100 | 146 h 37 m | Show |
The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions. The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up. Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree. Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation. |
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11-25-21 | Bills -4 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 77 h 52 m | Show |
Timing is very bad for the Saints here. This is a short week for the Saints. They've been without their best offensive players - Alvin Karmara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. These injuries have turned the Saints into a punchless, weapon-less offense operated by Trevor Siemian, one of the more ineffective backup quarterbacks in the league. The result is New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak. That hasn't happened to the Saints since the first three games of the 2016 season. New Orleans draws a much more well-rounded - and angry Bills team that just got destroyed, 41-15, at home by the Colts this past Sunday. The Bills have followed up their previous three losses with blowout victories winning those next games by an average of 26 points. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in scoring at 29.5 points and is fifth in total yards. The Saints can't keep up with that. Their offense is just a shell of its former self. New Orleans' defensive strength is its run defense, although you couldn't tell by watching the Saints get trampled by the Eagles this past Sunday. The Bills, though, are a passing team. The Saints are giving up 29.2 points per game during their last four games. That's right on the number of what the Bills average per game. |
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11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers OVER 47.5 | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
Now that Ben Roethlisberger has cleared COVID-19 protocols, I feel confident playing this game Over the total. The Chargers have an above average offense and an elite QB in Justin Herbert. The Chargers catch a major break in that Pittsburgh is going to be without it's best pass rusher, best safety and top cornerback as T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden have all been ruled out. The Steelers aren't the same minus the dominant Watt, perhaps the best pass rusher in the NFL, and the dynamic ballhawk Fitzpatrick. The Steelers are thin at linebacker, too, after trading Melvin Ingram to the Chiefs earlier this month. The Chargers are averaging 29.7 points in their past four home games. The weather will be perfect here. I expect the Steelers to contribute their fair share of points. LA ranks last in run defense. Najee Harris is the sixth-leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh's young offensive line has been showing improvement. If the Chargers stack the line to key on Harris, Rothelisberger is savvy enough to hurt LA with play-action. It's a plus for Pittsburgh that big-play wideout Chase Claypool is expected to play. |
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11-21-21 | Texans +10.5 v. Titans | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
It's not who you play in the NFL it's when you play them. That applies in this case. The Texans have lost eight in a row. Bill O'Brien really buried this franchise before departing the Houston scene. He should never be allowed to set foot on Texas soil again. The Texans are at expansion level. But the Texans will prove tough here. After winning six in a row - the last five against playoff teams - the Titans are in a monster letdown spot. They have the Patriots on deck. Tennessee no longer has an explosive offense. Derrick Henry and Julio Jones are both out. It's not a coincidence the Titans have had their two worst rushing games of the season since losing Henry to a broken right foot. Houston has the running advantage with David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Tyrod Taylor, one of the better running QB's in the league, compared to the Titans' Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman. The Texans' offensive line is terrible. But injuries have greatly reduced the effectiveness of Tennessee's offensive line. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 29 times. That's tied with rookie Justin Fields for being the most sacked QB in the NFL. Taylor was extremely rusty against the Dolphins in his first start after being out for six weeks with a hamstring injury. Houston had its bye last week. Expect Taylor, an 11-year veteran with a history of not turning the ball over, to be much sharper. The Texans are plus eight in point differential during the 10 quarters Taylor has played. This is a game Houston coach David Culley has been pointing to. He's a native of Tennessee and has an extensive college coaching record inside the state of Tennessee. The Texans come in rested and motivated. The Titans lack the firepower to blow an opponent out now especially when in a flat spot. |
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11-21-21 | Texans v. Titans OVER 44.5 | 22-13 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
The Texans have the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points and yards per game. They are averaging a mind-boggling 4.2 points in their last four road games. Tyrod Taylor upgrades Houston's offense. But only slightly. He's far better than overmatched rookie Davis Mills, but he's still Tyrod Taylor - a conservative journeyman better at running the ball than completing downfield passes. The Titans have excellent season numbers. However, those numbers are out of context now with Derrick Henry and Julio Jones both out. The Titans have run the ball 55 times in their last two games minus Henry. They've gained 135 yards, an average of 67.5 yards per game. That's their lowest two-game rushing total of the season. No Jones means the Texans can fully concentrate their pass defense on A.J. Brown, who is the Titans' only above average wideout. Both teams have protection problems. The Titans have given up 29 sacks, the Texans 26 sacks. Tennessee's defense is much improved with defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and linebacker Harold Landry playing at star levels. |
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11-21-21 | 49ers v. Jaguars +6.5 | 30-10 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
The 49ers are off one of the most impressive victories of the season. They beat the Rams, 31-10, at home this past Monday night.  But the 49ers are a below .500 team. They have a banged-up secondary, an overrated coach and a mediocre quarterback. They just aren't that good. It's a horrible spot for them traveling cross-country on a short week while basking in the glow of a huge upset division victory. It's also an early start time for San Francisco.  Jacksonville is below-the-radar. The Jaguars' defense has gotten better. They've surrendered an average of 20 points in their past four games.  The Jaguars stunned the Bills at home two weeks ago and hung tough staying within one score of the Colts on the road this past week.  The 49ers are run-oriented. They use the run to set up Jimmy Garoppolo. The Jaguars' strength is their 12th-ranked run defense. Garoppolo and the 49ers can and should not be trusted in this spot against this improved foe that is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in its last four games.Â
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11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 3 m | Show |
Despite a 3-7 record, the Dolphins have life after their dominating victory against the Ravens last Thursday. The Dolphins' next four games are against the Jets, Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Those are all winnable games, which would put Miami at 7-7. The Dolphins should get this one against the Jets, who have serious quarterback issues and a thin defense that has collapsed because of injuries. Sometimes it's a mistake to overreact to one game. But beating the Ravens was a huge confidence-builder for the Dolphins. This was a dominant 22-10 victory, too. It was the second-fewest points Baltimore scored with Lamar Jackson as its starting QB. The Ravens could manage only 94 yards on the ground, which was their second-lowest rushing output in four years. The Dolphins are a heavy blitzing team and the Jets have a well-below average offensive line to protect washed-up Joe Flacco, who was named the starting QB this week. The Jets have lost nearly all of their above average defensive talent. The result is New York is giving up an average of 43.7 points in its last four games. The Jets rank last defensively in points and yards. They are second-to-last in pass defense. Tua Tagovailoa is an improving QB, who can take advantage. This is a cheap price to back the superior, motivated team against what's turned into another Jets disaster. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 47 | Top | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
The Falcons have much to prove after scoring just three points in a 40-point loss to the Cowboys last Sunday. Matt Ryan had a passer rating of 21.4 in that game, lowest of his career. It's probably a given the Falcons are going to come out motivated for this Thursday night home game. It's far from a given, though, that they score far more points than last week. New England has an elite defense. Dallas doesn't. The Patriots are giving up the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 17.7. That number shrinks to 12.5 if you go by the last four games. Atlanta's problems aren't fully on Ryan. Minus traded Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, who will be missing his fourth straight game to deal with mental health issues, the Falcons are down to just two explosive players, Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Kyle Pitts. Patterson is dealing with an ankle injury. So he may be out, too. Given Mike Davis' ineffectiveness this season, the Falcons' primary running back could be journeyman Wayne Gallman. That leaves Pitts as a lone force and Bill Belichick is a master at taking away his opponent's most potent weapon. The Falcons won't even have the luxury of playing a second good pass-catching tight end because Hayden Hurst is out with an ankle injury. This isn't the decent Falcons' attack spearheaded by Ryan we're used to seeing. Way too many missing parts. Ryan is going to have to be conservative because of that. The Patriots have 14 interceptions. That's tied for the second-most in the league. The Patriots are far from explosive themselves. Take away their two victories against the Jets and last week's blowout of the Browns and the Patriots are averaging 21.5 points in their seven other games. New England is a run-oriented, ground-and-pound team. Rookie QB Mac Jones has proven accurate, but he's not a big downfield thrower and his wide receiving corps is below average. It's tough for a road team to win when playing on a short week especially facing a non-conference opponent. The last time these teams met was 2017. The short week limits the Patriots' game-planning and chance to be creative on offense. They'll do what they do best - run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. That's a good formula for the Under. |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 34 m | Show |
The Chiefs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL going 5-4. Bad defense and a league-worst 19 takeaways are the main factors. Lately, though, the Chiefs have begun to clean up those messes. They had no turnovers against the Packers last week. KC's defense has looked better with the return of its top pass rusher, Chris Jones. The Chiefs have held their last two foes, the Packers and Giants, to a combined average of 12 points.  The Raiders are off to an impressive 5-3 start aided by an improved defense and Derek Carr playing well. I see regression coming, though.  The Raiders have been very fortunate. They've fumbled 10 times and recovered nine of them. Carr never has proven consistent throughout an entire season. He's going to miss the play-calling and game plans of fired coach Jon Gruden and he no longer has vertical threat Henry Ruggs.  Kansas City has owned the Raiders, beating them six of the past seven times.Â
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11-14-21 | Panthers v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5 | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 90 h 41 m | Show | |
Christian McCaffrey's return isn't nearly enough to give any explosiveness to a Carolina offense that has just one opening week offensive line starter playing his original position and must turn to inaccurate backup QB P.J. Walker, who has a 1-to-5 touchdown-to-interception career ratio. This will be only Walker's second career NFL start.  Kyler Murray's MVP-caliber season is the big story in Arizona. But right next to it should be the tremendous strides its defense has made. The Cardinals have surrendered the third fewest points per game and fourth fewest yards.  The Cardinals may hold their two big weapons, Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, out a second straight game playing such a punchless opponent and coming off a 31-17 victory against the 49ers behind Colt McCoy and James Conner.  McCoy is a game manager. Conner is a North/South runner due for a heavy load with Chase Edmonds out with an ankle injury. The Panthers' strength is their young, talented defense.Â
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11-14-21 | Vikings v. Chargers OVER 53 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 31 m | Show | |
OK, I'll join the rest of the world in going Over this total. It's still likely to go higher, too.  A number of veteran Vikings defensive players are having bad seasons and now injuries and COVID have hit. Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson are definitely out. Hunter is Minnesota's most dominant lineman and Peterson their top cornerback.  Justin Herbert has the talent and weapons to take advantage. Discount a bad game against the Ravens and the Chargers are averaging 31.2 points in their last five games. The Chargers' defense has some standout talent - Joey Bosa and Derwin James quickly come to mind - but they are overrated as a whole. LA has surrendered an average of 31.7 points in its last four games. That was going against the Browns, Ravens, Patriots and Eagles.  The Vikings' offense is at least the equal of those teams. Dalvin Cook is the best all-purpose back the Chargers have seen all season. Justin Jefferson the second-best wide receiver.  Kirk Cousins has been rightly criticized for being too conservative. Even a stone age coach like Mike Zimmer realizes his offense has to open up more especially with their third down passing game.Â
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11-14-21 | Bucs -9.5 v. Washington Football Team | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a real bad matchup for Washington. Tom Brady entered his bye last week leading the NFL in passing yards and TD's. He's on pace to throw for 5,631 yards and 53 TD's. Slowing down at 44? I think not.  Washington is last in pass defense and 29th in scoring defense and total yards. Washington just lost pass rusher Montez Sweat, too. So Chase Young, who has only 1 1/2 sacks, can forget about any single blocking.  Backup QB Taylor Heinicke's limitations - lack of height, arm strength, decision making - are becoming more exposed as the season progresses. The Buccaneers know about him after beating Washington in the playoffs last season.  Washington is down two excellent offensive linemen, too, with guard Brandon Scherff and center Chase Roullier both out. Roullier suffered a broken leg in Washington's last game. There's a major gap between Roullier and his replacement, Tyler Larsen.  The Buccaneers are No. 2 in stopping the run and their secondary is getting healthier. I don't see Heinicke being able to keep up with Brady.Â
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys -9 | 3-43 | Win | 100 | 86 h 44 m | Show | |
I want to back the Cowboys at home after they played their worst game of the season in a 30-16 home loss to the Broncos this past Sunday. Despite that defeat, Dallas still is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games, the best point spread mark in the NFL.  Only twice have the explosive Cowboys failed to manage at least 29 points this season when Dak Prescott has started.  Atlanta is terrible on defense once again. The Falcons give up the fifth-most points per game and rank 29th in takeaways.  The Falcons' 4-4 record is deceiving since three of their wins occurred versus the Giants, Jets and Dolphins whose combined record entering this week was 7-19. Atlanta won all but one of its games on a field goal by Younghoe Koo on the final play.  While Dallas should be aroused Atlanta is fat and happy having upset their hated division rivals the Saints on the road, 27-25, last Sunday. This marks the Falcons' fifth different venue in their last five games.Â
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 38.5 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
The Bears hosted the 49ers last week. The total was less than 41. There were 55 points scored.  This week the Bears' total for their road game against the Steelers is less than 40.  Those kinds of totals are just plain too low in today's NFL where everything is skewed in favor of the offense.  Unless you have two horrible offenses and two dominant defenses, it's difficult for an NFL total to go Under this low of a total. And that's not the case for Monday's matchup. Chicago's defense is worse than perceived. Minus Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson, the Bears surrendered 33 points to a middle-of-the-road type 49ers offense. Chicago couldn't record a sack without Mack, nor come up with a takeaway minus Jackson. The 49ers scored on seven consecutive possessions. They never had to punt. Mack is out again and I don't expect Jackson to play either.  The Steelers' youthful offensive line is beginning to jell as the season reaches the half-way point. Najee Harris has benefitted averaging 130 scrimmage yards during the last three games. He was the AFC Rookie of the Month for October.  Given a ground game to fall back on, Ben Roethlisberger can pick his spots. He has good targets in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and underrated tight end Pat Freiermuth. Harris is one of the better all-purpose backs.  This total is so low because the Steelers just managed 15 points against the Browns last week. Pittsburgh averaged 25 points in its previous two games, which were both non-division matchups like this one. It's mainly so low, though, because the Bears rank last in total yards and passing yards. They are 31st in scoring.  Justin Fields is a work-in-progress. But he's off his best game. Fields is dangerous because he has tremendous mobility and can make big plays. He has good receivers, too, and there's the strong possibility running back David Montgomery returns from his knee injury here. Montgomery is a North-South runner, which isn't good for an Under. But he can keep Fields out of second-and-long situations.  Chris Boswell returned to practice so Pittsburgh should have its kicker.  No problems with weather either. |
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11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams OVER 52.5 | 28-16 | Loss | -107 | 35 h 38 m | Show | |
The Rams are a top-five offense averaging more than 30 points and 400 total yards. Matthew Stafford is putting up MVP numbers and Cooper Kupp has been the best wide receiver in the NFL. Tennessee has a below average defense.  The Titans aren't going to be able to stop the Rams. Tennessee's game plan of keeping the ball away from Stafford and Co. is out the window with Derrick Henry out. So the Titans are now forced to keep up with the Rams matching them score for score. They will have to throw to do that. Ryan Tannehill does have the explosive wide receiving weapons to accomplish this. Jeremy McNichols will become a bigger part of the game plan. He's the Titans' second-leading receiver catching passes out of the backfield.  Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing has had a full week to alter his standard game plan knowing Henry won't be available.  The Rams picked up Von Miller, which should help their pass rush. But I don't see this happening right away. Miller isn't 100 percent and is past his prime. The Rams could experience some cultural shock having played the Lions, Giants and Texans during their last three games. Now they're playing a real offense. |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles OVER 49.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a matchup where each team's offensive strength fits the opposing team's defensive weakness. Factor in tempo and that Jerome Boger's crew will be the officials and you have a strong Over the total play.  Justin Herbert has a healthy wide receiving group. The Eagles aren't deep in the secondary. Austin Ekeler is one of the better all-purpose running backs in the NFL. He has more than 300 receiving yards and averages 5.0 yards a run. The Chargers rank No. 2 in the NFL in tempo.  The Eagles ran for 236 yards against the Lions last week showing they have the running back depth to mitigate the loss of Miles Sanders. The Chargers are last in run defense giving up nearly 160 yards on the ground per game. Jalen Hurts is a dual threat QB and the Chargers have a cluster injury problem at cornerback with Asante Samuel and Michael Davis both out. So Hurts is in a great spot to succeed.  The Eagles play at the sixth-fastest pace.  The Over has cashed in better than 60 percent of Boger's lifetime games. That's a legitimate statistical number, too, because no other officiating crew calls so many defensive holding calls. It's a great break for Herbert to draw Boger and his flag wavers. Â
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens -6 | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 1 m | Show | |
Minnesota is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games. I don't expect the Vikings to cover this game either. The Ravens are 10-3 off a bye. They've won an NFL-high 11 straight against NFC foes. Baltimore is itching to play after getting blown out by the Bengals in its last game before its bye.  I used to like Mike Zimmer. Not so much anymore. I give the Ravens a strong coaching edge with John Harbaugh and his defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale. They've had an extra week to prepare. I expect a strong defensive game plan to limit the limited Kirk Cousins, who is more a glorified game manager than dangerous downfield passer to the detriment of supremely talented Justin Jefferson. Cousins' repeated failure to convert on numerous third downs by throwing short of the first down marker against a mediocre Cowboys defense was sickening.   This is the first time the Vikings under Zimmer have faced Lamar Jackson. I'm not sure they know what's fully in store for them. Jackson is passing more, but remains the most dangerous running quarterback in football.  Jackson faces a Vikings defense devoid of several key defensive linemen, including star pass rusher Danielle Hunter, and also missing Patrick Peterson, their best cornerback. Hunter has 25 percent of the Vikings' sacks. Not helping matters for the Vikings are the down years experienced by veterans Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith.Â
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11-07-21 | Texans +6 v. Dolphins | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
Tyrod Taylor is back under center. That makes a huge difference for Houston. Taylor is a professional. Rookie Davis Mills was a rank amateur in way above his head as a starting NFL quarterback. Taylor played six quarters before he was injured. The Texans outscored their two opponents, 51-35, during that span. No Taylor isn't some savior. He's a veteran journeyman. The Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But their 1-7 record is the same as Miami's. The Dolphins give up even more yards than the Texans. Miami ranks 31st in defensive total yards and 29th in scoring defense permitting 29.1 points. Houston has a bye next week. So the Texans should be putting forth a strong effort. Miami isn't nearly the playoff team it was last season. So you have to wonder about the Dolphins' morale. |
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11-07-21 | Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
Dallas' defense is much improved. But it's far from an elite unit. Jerry Jeudy is back from an ankle injury. He's Denver's most consistent wide receiving threat. His presence opens the field for their other receivers, including the highly-talented Courtland Sutton. Teddy Bridgewater has completed better than 70 percent of his throws. Expect Bridgewater to be passing far more than usual as he'll need to keep up with Dak Prescott and an explosive Cowboys offense. The Broncos' defense looked good at the start of the season. However, they were playing weak offenses and that was before multiple injuries struck. Denver is without its two best inside linebackers, Josey Jewell and A.J. Johnson. That opens up the running game for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Denver's pass rush is without Bradley Chubb and now the traded Von Miller. So Prescott should have time to pick his spots. The Cowboys' deep wide receiving corps is made even deeper with the expected return of Michael Gallup, who is talented enough to be a starter on some teams. The Broncos suffered another key defensive injury, losing Bryce Callahan. He was one of the best slot coverage defensive backs. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
The Pro Football Hall of Fame collected Mike White's jersey from last Sunday's stunning Jets' 34-31 win against the Bengals. Heady stuff. Kudos to the Jets, who caught the Bengals traveling in a division sandwich spot after beating the Ravens and hosting the Browns this week. The Jets are in the bad spot this week in their own letdown situation and playing a Thursday road game against a frustrated and motivated opponent that is at least two levels better than them. So I'm not afraid to lay this number with Indy. It's the Colts' first prime time home game in four years. The Colts are much the superior team and are in near must-win mode after blowing a two-touchdown lead last week in their AFC South Division showdown loss to the Titans. White isn't throwing for more than 400 yards and three TD's like he did against Cincinnati. White doesn't possess that kind of skill level. Defenses have film on him now, too, and Indy is well-coached defensively. The stunning victory against the Bengals obscures just how wretched the Jets really are. New York averages 13 fewer points per game than its opponents and 84 fewer yards. The Jets have the worst ground attack in the league and the highest percentage of passes intercepted. Carson Wentz has thrown multiple TD's in six straight games. Jonathan Taylor has reinforced his reputation as a stud running back. The Colts' offensive line has gotten healthy. Expect a Colts blowout. |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks -3 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 13 m | Show | |
I can't see the Seahawks losing to the Jaguars at home with their season on the line.  The Seahawks still possess the talent - even without Russell Wilson - the coaching, experience and savvy to defeat a bottom feeder such as Jacksonville.  Seattle's defense has picked up its game holding its last two opponents under 350 yards. The Seahawks also have had the best third-down defense during the last four weeks. Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams are elite players.  Jacksonville could come out flat making the long journey having not played in two weeks. The Jaguars also have the monkey off their backs having halted their 20-game losing streak with a 23-20 win against the Dolphins in London. Jacksonville is 3-8 ATS the last 11 times following a victory.Â
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10-31-21 | Bengals v. Jets +11 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 6 m | Show | |
I understand the Jets are a hold-your-nose team to back. The Jets' defense, though, has played hard and above their heads for first-year head coach Robert Saleh, a defensive guru. New York's offense might show better than expected with backup Mike White given a whole week of practicing with the first team. He has good wide receivers even if Corey Davis doesn't play.  But make no mistake this handicap is far more about fading the Bengals, who are in a terrible situational spot.  Not only is this Cincinnati's third consecutive road game, but the Bengals are coming off the best road win of Zac Taylor's Bengals' coaching career, downing the Ravens, 41-17, last Sunday.   The Bengals are in an obvious letdown spot. They also are in a division sandwich with a much bigger game on deck when they host the Browns next week.  Cincinnati's is much improved. But they aren't so elite to cover a double-digit road number in this type of situation.Â
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10-31-21 | 49ers v. Bears OVER 39.5 | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
A lot has to go right defensively and on special teams for a total of less than 40 to go Under in today's NFL with so many rules skewed to offense.  Justin Fields has been a disaster - so far. But this will be his sixth start. He has the legs and receiving talent with Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet to put up his share of points. The Bears have gone Under in their last six games, but they've never had a total of less than 40 this season. The 49ers have enough firepower to help this total get Over, too, especially since the Bears will be missing their best defensive player, star pass rusher Khalil Mack. He's out with a foot injury.  Chicago ranks 23rd in run defense. The 49ers are ground-oriented. Jimmy Garoppolo is playing for his job. So he knows he has to come in with a good performance here.    |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -118 | 39 h 7 m | Show |
Now that their offensive line - one of the best in the NFL - is healthy for the first time this season, I expect the Colts to protect their home field and beat the Titans. If the Colts were to lose, they would trail Tennessee by three games in the division.  So the urgency certainly is there for Indy. The Titans are off tremendous victories against the Bills and Chiefs. It's difficult for a flawed team, which the Titans are given their shortcomings on defense and special teams, to pull off a third straight upset.  Carson Wentz is playing at a high level. He's thrown the fewest interceptions of any starting QB and owns a 119.5 passer rating this month with an 8.9 yards-per-attempt average. Jonathan Taylor can't match Derrick Henry, but he's come on strong to enter the argument of being a top-five runner. Â
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 50 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
The Cardinals rank fourth in the NFL in points scored per game at 32.1. That's legitimate with Kyler Murray having an MVP-type season. Arizona ranks first in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game at 16.3. That's not legitimate. Yes, the Cardinals' defense is much improved. But it's not the dominating unit that the statistics show. Arizona has permitted just 29 points in its last three games. Those matchups, though, were against the 49ers, Browns and Texans. The Cardinals faced two rookie quarterbacks during this span - Trey Lance in his starting debut and overmatched Davis Mills - along with a banged-up Baker Mayfield, who probably shouldn't have played against the Cardinals in what was one of his worst performances ever. Mayfield couldn't hit open receivers all game against Arizona. The Packers won't have Davonte Adams and Allen Lazard. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling has to miss a fifth straight game due to a hamstring injury, Green Bay will be without its three top wideouts. Normally this would create a huge problem. That problem isn't the mess the marketplace believes it is in driving the line up to a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers still has weapons. Green Bay has outstanding wide receiver depth. Rodgers has been great since Week 2 with 17 all purpose touchdowns and just one interception during his last six games. By the way, the Packers are 6-0 since 2019 in games Adams has missed. The Cardinals will get Chandler Jones back, but J.J. Watt won't play. I have complete confidence that Rodgers will put up his share of points helping this total go Over.
The Packers holding Washington to 10 points last Sunday is highly misleading. Washton marched up and down the field on Green Bay picking up 430 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per play. Taylor Heinicke just made too many goal line mistakes to take advantage. The Packers have allowed the second-most quarterback rushing yards. That bodes well for double-threat Murray. |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 82 h 23 m | Show |
The early forecast is for a high chance of rain - not exactly shocking for Seattle - with winds in the 10 mph range. That's not a plus for the Over. Nor is the quarterback matchup.  Jameis Winston has been far more effective in his home games inside the New Orleans zone. Geno Smith is a backup. Both Winston and Smith are turnover-prone. Winston has been sacked nine times and picked off three times in three road games this season.  The Saints are solid defensively both against the run and pass. The Saints entered this week ranked third in the metric DVOA, which is defense-adjusted value over average.  The Seahawks' defense features middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams, two of the top players at their respective positions.  The Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times the Seahawks have played an NFC opponent.
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10-24-21 | Colts +4 v. 49ers | Top | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 71 h 13 m | Show |
This has all the markings of a pick'em type game between two solid no-frill teams.  Carson Wentz quietly is having a good season. He has just one interception, fewest of any starting quarterback, and has thrown multiple TD passes in each of his last three games. The Colts' stud offensive line is getting healthier. Jonathan Taylor gives Indy the best running back on the field by far.  This is a huge game for Colts' star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner going against his former team.  The 49ers have lost their last six home games. They are 0-8 ATS as home chalk. I find Kyle Shanahan to be perhaps the most overrated coach in the NFL.  Jimmy Garoppolo is back at QB. Trey Lance isn't expected to play due to a knee injury. Garoppolo is much easier to game plan against. He wasn't mobile to begin with and now he's returning from a calf injury. The 49ers have yet to find their lead running back and star tight end George Kittle is on the injured list.  The Colts are plus 7 in takeaways/giveaways. The 49ers, by contrast, have a minus-5 turnover ratio. The 49ers have multiple injuries in their secondary.  There's a chance of rain and wind in the 10-15 mph range. This favors the better rushing team, which the Colts are because of Taylor. |
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10-24-21 | Texans +18 v. Cardinals | 5-31 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 42 m | Show | |
As the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, the Cardinals deserve a break. They get one here.  This is a rest stop for Arizona. The Cardinals came away with two huge division victories against the Rams and 49ers before going on the road against the Browns. The Cardinals didn't take their foot off the pedal defeating Cleveland, 37-14, last week. After this game, the Cardinals host the Packers on Thursday in a stand-alone nationally televised marquee matchup. Then Arizona goes to San Francisco for a rematch against the 49ers.  The media may play up the DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt angle of facing their former team, but in truth the Cardinals can mail this one in - and they know it.  Texans rookie QB Davis Mills has had 18 quarters of starting experience now. But, really, this entire handicap is based on a fade of Arizona in this monster price range and in a flat spot.  The Cardinals have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times they've been a home favorite under Kliff Kingsbury.
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10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | 19-28 | Win | 100 | 67 h 3 m | Show | |
I have been watching the NFL for nearly 60 years. Never have I seen a worse wide receiver group than what the Lions have with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, KhaDarel Hodge, Tom Kennedy and Geronimo Allison.  Jalen Ramsey can catch up on his reading facing these guys. The Rams, of course, know Jared Goff well. They know his many weaknesses and lack of downfield passing. Detroit's one-time decent offensive line isn't very good anymore either because of injuries and rookie left tackle Penei Sewell's continued struggles.  The result is the Lions have failed to score 17 points in their last five games, averaging 15.2 points during this span. They have scored one first half TD since Week 2.  The Lions lack talent on defense, too. But they play hard for Dan Campbell. Until getting clobbered by the Bengals, 34-11, this past Sunday the Lions held their previous three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to an average of 20.6 points. Detroit should be motivated to perform better defensively after getting lit up by the Bengals.  Matthew Stafford can produce big points, but Sean McVay has no reason to reveal any trick plays, or new wrinkles against such a weak road foe. If a blowout is occurring, McVay might even pull Stafford and the rest of his offensive starters.  The oddsmaker still hasn't quite caught up to the Lions when it comes to totals. The Under has cashed in Detroit's last four games. The Lions have gone Under the total by an average of nearly 11 points a game during their past four games. |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -105 | 64 h 4 m | Show | |
I was having some doubt about the Ravens' defense - until this past Sunday. The Ravens got back to their effective blitzing ways and held Justin Herbert and his high-powered Chargers attack to a mesley six points.  The Ravens held the Bengals to a combined six points last season. Zac Taylor is 0-4 versus Baltimore. I have far more confidence in the Ravens' defense and psychological edge than I do in the Bengals' promising offense and improved-but-still-vulnerable offensive line.  I'm far more convinced about Cincinnati's improvement on defense. The Bengals rank fifth in scoring defense and give up the eighth-fewest yards per game. They can hold up at the point of attack against Baltimore especially with the Ravens down to a bunch of back-up, or over-the-hill, running backs.  Cincinnati has held their last five opponents to an average of 16.8 points.Â
 Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-quality season. However, he's mostly gone against weak-to-mediocre defenses. The Bengals are the best defense he's seen. |
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10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 47.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 64 h 2 m | Show | |
There's some below-the-radar stuff that lends this matchup to a sneaky Over play.  Let's start with the Falcons. Matt Ryan has picked up Arthur Smith's offense and picked up his game. He's completed 71 percent of his passes the last four games throwing 10 TD's during this span.  Smith, an offensive guru, has had two weeks to game plan with the Falcons being idle last week. Star wide receiver Calvin Ridley is back. Kyle Pitts had his coming out party during the Falcons' last game, catching nine passes for 119 yards and a TD in a 27-20 win against the Jets.  The Dolphins' secondary hasn't lived up to expectations with star cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones both being out. They are questionable for this game. Miami ranks in the bottom-four in points given up, yards allowed and pass defense. The Falcons rank in the top 10, too, in pace.  Now the Dolphins. Miami's season numbers are skewed because of Jacoby Brissett's substandard play when Tua Tagovailoa was out with injured ribs. Tagovailoa returned last week against the Jaguars and threw for 351 yards and two TD's. He's a clear upgrade on Brissett. Tagovailoa has upgraded wide receiving weapons from a year ago and won't lack motivation to prove himself with Deshaun Watson rumors again floating around.  The Dolphins play at the sixth-fasted pace, too. Miami's biggest weakness is its offensive line. Atlanta, though, lacks a pass rush. The Falcons surrender the second-most points per game at 29.6 and have only three takeaways. |
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10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
Don't overthink this one. The Titans are worse than their 3-2 record. If the Bills don't pass the eye test of being the best team in the NFL right now following their road victory against the Chiefs they certainly pass the statistical test. Buffalo entered this week leading the NFL in scoring at 34.4 points per game while giving up the fewest points at 12.8.  The Titans' bottom 10 defense isn't going to be able to stop mobile Josh Allen, who has the luxury of excellent play-calling from offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, after not slowing down rookies Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson the past two weeks.  Derrick Henry continues to be the best running back in the NFL. Henry's usefulness, though, is greatly reduced if the Titans have to play from behind as I anticipate. The Bills' pass rush is much improved and Ryan Tanneheill has been sacked a league-high 20 times.  The Bills have won by double-digits in 10 of their last 11 regular season games.  Any talk of a Bills' letdown after their great win against Kansas City last week is crazy. Not only is this a Monday night game, but Buffalo has revenge for a 42-16 loss to Tennessee last year.   |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 98 h 60 m | Show | |
The Cardinals are the NFL's lone unbeaten team. By the time this game finishes, I highly doubt Arizona still will be without a loss. This game sets up well for the Browns. Cleveland easily is the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL thanks to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Cardinals rank 28th in run defense.  Kyler Muray has been carrying the one-dimensional Cardinals. He's bothered by a shoulder injury in his passing arm and is likely to be without his injured center Rodney Hudson. Early reports are the Browns will have a number of their banged-up defensive players available for this game.  The warm-weather Cardinals are traveling into heavy wind.Â
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns UNDER 50.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 55 m | Show |
The Browns' defense isn't elite, but they are much better than how they looked last week in giving up 47 points to a hot Justin Herbert and Chargers' offense. Cleveland had surrendered just 33 combined points in its previous three games.  Kyler Murray took a beating against the 49ers last week. The Cardinals are heading into a different climate away from their desert. The forecast is for wind in the 20-to-30 mph range.  Neither team plays fast. The Browns are heavily run-oriented. They rank 29th in pace. The Cardinals are in the bottom nine in tempo.Â
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10-17-21 | Bengals v. Lions UNDER 47.5 | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 67 h 38 m | Show | |
The Bengals are much improved defensively. They held the Packers to 22 points during regulation last week and have surrendered an average of 18.2 points during their last four games.  Cincinnati gets to step way down in class to face the punchless Lions. Detroit didn't have much going - and that was before getting struck with massive injuries. Frank Ragnow, a very good center, is out. So is Quintez Cephus, who had emerged as Detroit's top wide receiver. Tyrell Williams, maybe Detroit's second best wideout, is out, too. Not helping matters are the struggles of rookie left tackle Penei Sewell.  The result has been Jared Goff averaging an embarrassing 6.6 yards pass attempt, while continuing to show off his inaccuracy and lack of any big-play ability. Goff isn't helped by having the worst wide receiving corps in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 16.2 points in its last four games.   The Lions reflect their coach, blue collar Dan Campbell. They are grinders. Their defense doesn't have any playmakers, but can be counted on to provide a strong effort reflective of their coach. Detroit has held its last three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to 20.6 points a game. That figure would be even lower but the Ravens and Vikings kicked long field goals at the gun to take away two wins from the Lions.  The Bengals have a below average offensive line and skill position injuries. Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury. His backup, Samaje Perine, is on the COVID list. Joe Burrow is playing on a surgically repaired left knee and was having trouble talking after getting hit in the throat last week.Â
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10-17-21 | Packers v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 66 h 24 m | Show | |
So far the Packers aren't the offensive powerhouse of a year ago. Left tackle David Bakhitari remains out and Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay's second best offensive lineman and most versatile, is questionable having missed the past couple of games.  The Bears have shown a resurgency on defense. Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn are putting forth a strong pass rush and veteran linebacker Danny Trevathan is back playing, bolstering a strong crew.  Chicago ranks eighth in fewest points and yards allowed. The Packers have been getting A.J. Dillon more involved in the offense. That's a plus for the Under as Dillon is a plodding north/south runner who keeps the clock moving with little threat of breaking off a big run.  The Bears have become ultra-conservative with Justin Fields after the Browns held them to only 47 yards. Fields is averaging fewer than 20 throws and only three rushing attempts during his last three games.  David Montgomery and Allen Robinson are the Bears' two best weapons. Montgomery is out with a knee injury and the Andy Dalton/Fields quarterback situation has rendered Robinson nearly a non-entity. He hasn't had more than 63 receiving yards in his last seven games, nor has he scored a TD.Â
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10-17-21 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 66 h 52 m | Show |
No surprise the Chiefs have been terrible on defense. Big surprise Washington is giving up the second-most points in the league at 31 per game. Washington has only three takeaways after recording 23 last season. The Chiefs' offense can cover for their defense. Washington's offense can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. That's asking way too much of erratic backup QB Taylor Heinicke, especially given that he could missing the right side of his offensive line with Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff out and tackle Sam Cosmi questionable.  Kansas City should have its focus for this non-conference matchup coming off an embarrassing, 38-20, home loss on national TV to the Bills this past Sunday night.  Washington was just picked apart by Jameis Winston in a 33-22 home loss to the Saints this past Sunday. Mahomes is far better than Winston and has far superior receiving weapons even if Tyreek Hill doesn't play. Washington has yet to get its secondary straightened out.  Washington ranks last in home attendance so it doesn't have much of a home field advantage.Â
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens -7 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
The Colts can't come close to matching the dynamic Lamar Jackson. The Colts' strength has been their play in the trenches. But lacking a dominant pass rusher and suffering multiple injuries in the offensive line leave the Colts mediocre as their 1-3 accurately reflects.  Jackson is an improved passer, making him even more lethal. He gives the Ravens a monster QB edge against Carson Wentz, who has been turnover-prone and dealing with injuries to both of his ankles. Jackson was 22-for-37 passing for 316 yards on the road last week against a very good Denver defense. The Colts' defense isn't as good ad Denver's and the Ravens are home.  It's the Colts' third straight road game.  The Ravens rank No. 2 in special teams, according to Football Outsiders, and their defense is getting healthier. They should be able to bottle up the Colts' ground attack and apply pressure to Wentz because Indy is without its best offensive lineman, stud guard Quenton Nelson, and also could be missing center Ryan Kelly because of a groin injury and tackle Braden Smith because of foot and thumb injuries.  All of my checkmarks go to the Ravens. So I'm confident in laying a touchdown with them at home against this opponent. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
Perhaps down the road, the Chiefs will become the best team in the NFL again. Right now Kansas City can't make that distinction given how bad its defense is. But the Bills can. They are looking great on both sides of the ball.  I regard the Bills as the best team in the NF. So I'll gladly accept any points coming to them in this rematch of the AFC title game. The Chiefs were better than the Bills back then. They aren't now.  The Bills give up the fewest points, yards and passing yards in the NFL. Their offense can trade points against any opponent.  The Chiefs are potent as ever on offense, although Patrick Mahomes already has five interceptions. Buffalo leads the NFL in takeways with 10.  Kansas City rates second-to-last in points and yards allowed. The Chiefs have given up 29 or more points in every game. They rank last in yards per play allowing 6.87. The Bills are first in that category holding foes to 4.0 yards per play.  Buffalo has covered 12 of its last 15 games. The Chiefs are just the opposite going 3-12 ATS. Kansas City also is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home games.Â
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 48 m | Show |
Whether it's Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance behind center, I want the 49ers going for me here. San Francisco is 10-4 ATS the past 14 times as an underdog and catch the Cardinals, the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, fat and happy after they ended an eight-game losing streak to the Rams with their impressive, 37-20, victory last Sunday.  San Francisco is 2-2, but aren't that far from being 4-0. They nearly pulled off a comeback against the Packers and they outgained the Seahawks by 223 yards in their one-score loss to Seattle last week. The 49ers have held their last three foes - Eagles, Packers and Seahawks - to an average of 305 yards.  Kyler Murray is the early frontrunner for MVP. The Cardinals have played three weak defenses, though, in the Titans, Vikings and Jaguars.  Kliff Kingsbury has been terrible in this role as the Cardinals are 1-8 ATS as a home favorite during the Kingsbury era.Â
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 90 h 36 m | Show | |
The Browns' strength is running the ball with their great 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland ranks first in rushing averaging 177 yards on the ground. The Chargers rank 29th in run defense and lost inside linebacker Kenneth Murray and defensive tackle Justin Jones to injuries further eroding their rush defense.  The Chargers' strength is passing. Justin Herbert can hurt a Cleveland secondary. Herbert is hot with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Browns' defense is improved, but they've been fortunate to go against weak offensive lines in their last three games facing the Texans, Bears and Vikings.  This is a clear-cut case of strength versus strength and the total is low enough to get involved.Â
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10-10-21 | Lions v. Vikings UNDER 49.5 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
The Under has cashed seven the last eight times in this series. I expect that trend to continue here given this NFC North Division rivalry and the Lions' offensive woes.  The Lions are averaging 16 points during their last three games. They are going to be without perhaps their two best offensive linemen with left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow out with injuries. A third offensive line starter, Penei Sewell, isn't likely to play either for Detroit because of an ankle injury. Sparked by a rejuvenated Danielle Hunter, the Vikings are averaging 3.2 sacks per game.  The Lions have discovered first-hand what Sean McVay knew that Jared Goff is merely a game manager. The Vikings' secondary can handle Goff and a Detroit wide receiving corps that is the worst in the league.  Detroit doesn't have a good defense. But the Lions play hard for Dan Campbell - at least so far. The Vikings' offense becomes more ground-and-pound when Dalvin Cook isn't fully in the lineup, which he hasn't been for the past two games. He's been slowed by an ankle injury.Â
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10-10-21 | Titans v. Jaguars +4.5 | 37-19 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 7 m | Show | |
This is the Jaguars' biggest game of the season. Something Urban Meyer is well aware of. Indications are the Jaguars have had a good week of practice despite the distractions of Meyer.  Trevor Lawrence is getting better at protecting the ball. He faces a very weak defense here. Zach Wilson enjoyed success against the Titans last Sunday. So should Lawrence. Tennessee gives up 27.8 points a game. That's just one fewer point per game than the Jaguars allow.  Jacksonville is capable. They led both the Cardinals and Bengals by nine and 14 points before losing.  Given their injury situation, the Titans should not be laying more than a field goal on the road. Maybe the Titans get back A.J. Brown, but they are likely to still be without Julio Jones and underrated punter Brett Kern. Tennessee also is banged-up in its offensive line. The Titans have yielded 17 sacks, most in the NFL entering this week.Â
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
Even in today's NFL where the rules are greatly skewed toward offense, a lot has to go right for this many points to be scored. I don't see the Rams-Seahawks combining for this many points on a short week where game-planning is condensed.  The Rams' defense appears down from last season. That's not a surprise. After all, they ranked No. 1 defensively last year and their star defensive coordinator, Brandon Stanley, is now the Chargers' head coach. Raheem Morris is LA's third defensive coordinator in three years. He's a downgrade from Stanley.  Having said that, though, the Rams still had held their last 17 regular season opponents under 30 points until losing, 37-20, to the explosive Cardinals this past Sunday. The Rams have Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, arguably the best players at their respective positions. The Seahawks' mediocre offensive line has had a great degree of difficulty dealing with Donald.  The teams met three times last season. The Rams held the Seahawks to an average of 15 points and 301 yards. Russell Wilson is putting together another fantastic season. Seattle, however, ranks 29th in third down yardage. Wilson has the second-highest sack rate on third down, too, behind only the Texans' overmatched rookie QB Davis Mills. So the Seahawks will have to do much of their damage on their first two downs.  The Rams were held to a season-low 20 points against Arizona. LA's final TD came in garbage time, too. Darrell Henderson looked good after missing the previous week with a rib injury. Sean McVay realizes he may have abandoned his ground attack too early against the Cardinals. So the Rams could be running more than usual plus McVay wants to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands. That's a plus for the Under.Â
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The oddsmaker considers these teams even if you factor three points for home field advantage. The Chargers have a weaker home-field edge than most teams. Still, even given that, I believe the Chargers are superior to Las Vegas.  Credit to Derek Carr and to Las Vegas for opening 3-0. That hasn't occurred for the Raiders in 19 years. But in studying this matchup, I give the key checkmarks to the Chargers.  I like Justin Herbert better than Carr. The Chargers have the best all-purpose running back on the field in Austin Ekeler. LA also rates a strong wide receiving edge with Keenan Allen and a rejuvenated Mike Williams. Those two have been one of the best wide receiving duos in the NFL this season.  LA also has a much improved offensive line, while the Raiders' offensive line still is in transition.  Defensively, the Raiders are middle-of-the-pack. The Chargers give up four fewer points per game than the Raiders, have the better pass defense and double the number of takeaways Las Vegas has. Joey Bosa is the best pass rusher on the field and Derwin James would be the best player in either secondary if he can suit up, which he expects to do. I have serious doubts about how good the Raiders defense is going to look on the road against Herbert.  The Chargers have proven vulnerable on the ground. Las Vegas, however, ranks among the bottom-eight in rushing.  LA upset Washington and Kansas City on the road. The Chargers held the potent Cowboys to 20 points. Dallas is averaging 35.3 points in its three other games. The Raiders had a nice upset win at home against the Ravens in overtime opening week. The Raiders then upset the Steelers on the road. That win, though, doesn't look as impressive now considering the Steelers are 1-3 and have been outscored by 26 points. The Raiders then barely escaped the Dolphins and backup QB Jacoby Brissett winning, 31-28 in overtime, at home last week. The Dolphins are 1-3. They have managed just 34 points in their three games not against Las Vegas. Â
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10-03-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 31 m | Show |
Forget all the hype leading up to this matchup, the most anticipated regular season game in years. This is a a one-sided matchup. The Patriots can't come close to matching Tampa Bay's firepower and New England's defense, while good, is not great. The Patriots can defend well against bad offenses and bad QB's. New England can't stop an elite offense and quarterback such as Tom Brady, though.  Bill Belichick doesn't have enough chess pieces to stop Brady from effectively using Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, who has scored as many TD's as the Patriots have produced as a team. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' top cornerback, remains out.  Game manager rookie QB Mac Jones isn't going to be able to keep up. The Buccaneers have an elite run defense. Jones lacks experience and explosive wideouts. His most dependable all-purpose running back, James White, is sidelined with a hip injury.  The Patriots have no ability to play from behind. I'm expecting a Tampa Bay blowout.
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
Seattle swept San Francisco last season and the Seahawks should win this game because of Russell Wilson. He has the arms, legs and intelligence to take advantage of the 49ers' cluster injury situation in their secondary.  Wilson is on pace for career highs in many of the major categories. The 49ers have trouble with mobile QB's. Wilson gives the Seahawks a monster QB edge. The 49ers are a running team lacking a lead runner due to injuries.  Seattle has dominated this series from a point spread perspective going 13-5-1 ATS during the last 19 meetings.  The 49ers also have dropped their last five games at Levi's Stadium.   |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 65 h 33 m | Show | |
After looking decent during preseason, the Jets have looked terrible on offense. Keep in mind, though, New York's schedule. The Jets' first three opponents were the Panthers, Patriots and Broncos. Those are three strong defenses. Now New York steps way down in defensive class. Zach Wilson has the receiving weapons to take advantage of the Titans' weak secondary and lack of a pass rush. The Titans are likely going to be missing their two star wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Both are dealing with hamstring injuries. The 0-3 Jets are in desperation mode while the Titans are fat and happy coming off a big win against the Colts and with a division game against the Jaguars on deck.Â
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10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -16.5 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 65 h 32 m | Show | |
Yes this is the largest point spread of the season. It's still not enough points for the Texans, though. Josh Allen is back in form - as he showed in a 22-point victory against Washington last week - and the Bills' defense is playing at a high level with an experienced secondary and promising young pass rushers.  Rookie QB Davis Mills isn't going to be able to dent Buffalo's defense that ranks fourth in fewest points and yards allowed.  The Texans are conservative both offensively and defensively in an effort to hide their lack of talent. The Bills are perfectly suited to attack the Texans' zone coverages because Allen likes to throw short to Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, all of whom are adept in finding soft spots in coverage.  Houston was competitive at the start of the season. But that was with Tyrod Taylor behind center and playing easier opponents. The Texans are at least three TD's worse on the road than Buffalo.Â
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10-03-21 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 42 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 65 h 31 m | Show | |
The Bears defense, particularly Khalil Mack, is back playing at a high level. Chicago's defense should encounter little trouble from a Lions attack that has the worst wide receivers in the NFL and a mediocre QB in Jared Goff.  The Lions are 0-3, but have shown tremendous effort under fiery Dan Campbell. If it weren't for a record 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, the Lions would have held the Ravens to 16 points.  I doubt Andy Dalton is able to play this week. So Justin Fields is in line to make his second NFL start. He's not ready for that role yet as the Browns clearly showed last week holding Chicago to 47 yards on 42 plays. The Bears rank last in yards gained and are second-to-last in scoring.Â
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
The Cowboys have marquee skill position talent. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times laying points and have much to prove defensively after last season's disaster.  The Eagles are a blue-collar team by comparison. They lack the superstar offensive talent Dallas possesses. Philly, however, is tough in the trenches even without injured defensive end Brandon Graham and Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks. The Cowboys are without their top pass rusher, DeMarcus Lawrence.  Jalen Hurts is the best running quarterback in the NFC. The Eagles have the style of offense that can grind the Cowboys down while playing ball-control.  Philadelphia's defense has been outstanding holding the Falcons and 49ers to a combined average of 11.5 points. Early returns on Eagles' first-year head coach Nick Sirianni are positive.  This is the Eagles' lone scheduled nationally televised game. I see them producing a strong effort and getting the right result even though they aren't nearly as fancy as Dallas.Â
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09-26-21 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 129 h 57 m | Show |
The Packers got back on track Monday. They led the league in scoring last season and their offense was back in sync after being rusty opening week in a shocking blowout loss to the Saints.  The 49ers are heavily run-oriented. However, they have a cluster injury problem at running back. Game manager Jimmy Garoppolo needs a strong running attack to set up his passing rather than the other way around.  Aaron Rodgers versus Garoppolo is a monster mismatch.  The 49ers have been terrible as home favorites going 5-20-1 ATS in that role.Â
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09-26-21 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 44 | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 2 m | Show | |
The Dolphins just may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. It's a major reason why they rate last in scoring with just 17 points on the season and yards per play. I don't see Miami putting up many points against a Raiders defense that ranks No. 2 in quarterback hits and is going with backup Jacoby Brissett, who is not an accurate passer and holds the ball too long. This will be Brisset's first start in two years.  Miami does have a strong defense. The Dolphins have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league and their defensive front ranks eighth in quarterback pressure. The Raiders have been one-dimensional on offense without the running of Josh Jacobs, who isn't likely to play again due to an ankle injury. The Raiders are down two of their starting offensive linemen.  Derek Carr is likely to be throwing a lot of short passes. Carr needs to be careful because the Dolphins have produced at least one takeaway in 24 consecutive games, the longest streak in the NFL.Â
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09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots UNDER 42.5 | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show | |
Drew Brees versus Tom Brady. Not anymore. Instead we have erratic Jameis Winston against rookie Mac Jones.   Neither offensive line is playing well either.  Sean Payton is going to take it easy with Winston knowing he's facing defensive guru Bill Belichick and a ball-hawking New England secondary. The Patriots have five takeaways in two games and have held opponents to under 300 yards a game.  Belichick is keeping things ultra conservative for Jones, who lacks explosive weapons. The Saints are stout against the run and their secondary is bolstered by the return of their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore.Â
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills -7 | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show | |
Taylor Heinicke is a nice story. But Josh Allen is close to superstar status. I see Allen getting right and Buffalo's defense, which looks far more like its dominant self of 2019 than last season, handling Heinicke and a much more limited Washington offense.  Washington's defense has yet to live up to expectations. Buffalo has upgraded its pass rush to go with a strong back seven on defense. This is Heinicke's first road start. The Bills have the defensive coaching with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier and talent to make it very rough on him, while Allen gets untracked against Washington's mediocre linebackers and average secondary.Â
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns -7 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
Justin Fields makes his first NFL start. He's an exciting talent, but he's not nearly NFL-ready. Not helping matters for Fields is Chicago's offensive line isn't ready either. The Browns are better defensively than they have shown. I regard Myles Garrett as the AFC's most feared pass rusher along with T.J. Watt.  The Browns are the only team in the NFL sporting a top-three grade in both passing and run blocking. That's how good their offensive line is. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt could be the best running tandem in the league. Chubb has scored at least one rushing TD in eight consecutive games. Baker Mayfield is leading the NFL in completion percentage and now gets Odell Beckham Jr. for the first time this season. The Bears yielded Matthew Stafford's highest career passer rating opening week.  Beckham is an electrifying presence who is sure to fire up the home crowd. The Bears' plight will be made worse if run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman still can't make his season debut because of a knee injury.Â
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 44 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 77 h 30 m | Show |
I'm expecting rookie QB Davis Mills to get the start for the Texans. That's certainly not a plus for Houston as Mills isn't nearly ready to start a regular season NFL game.  The Panthers have a lot of young defensive talent with Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Shaq Thompson and Haason Reddick. They dominated rookie Zach Wilson in Week 1 and made Jameis Winston look terrible this past Sunday.  The Texans are going to go as basic as possible with Mills.  This is a very winnable road game for the Panthers. So I don't envision Matt Ruhle doing anything fancy on offense. Sam Darnold is far from trustworthy at this early stage of his Carolina career.  A conservative, defensive-minded contest should produce a total far below this total. |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 140 h 29 m | Show | |
This total opened short considering how weak the Lions are defensively and how potent the Packers' offense is. One flat performance to start the season by the Packers shouldn't negate that Green Bay led the NFL in scoring last year at 31.8 points. The Packers didn't play Aaron Rodgers and some of their key skill position players during preseason and the rustiness showed on opening week. The Packers have their skill position stars back and their offensive line remains above average. Rodgers should have no problem taking advantage of a Detroit defense full of holes. The Lions can't pressure the quarterback, nor cover very well. They also have slow linebackers. Green Bay should come close to covering this total itself.  The Lions should contribute, too, to the total going Over. Green Bay's defense looked terrible opening week under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry. The Lions have a solid offensive line and two good running backs with D'Andre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams. T.J. Hockenson is emerging as a tight end force.Â
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -10.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 148 h 11 m | Show |
The Packers are in a kill spot hosting a Detroit team that is much worse than its final score indicated from Week 1. The 49ers led the Lions, 31-10, at halftime. So the 49ers' 41-33 final is misleading. Make no mistake, the Lions are terrible. Their defense is slow, can't pressure the QB and the secondary just lost cornerback Jeff Okudah for the season. The Packers laid an egg in Week 1. They are eager to show the Monday night national TV audience just how potent they can be. Aaron Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder is a dangerous dude.  Green Bay could not have asked for an easier pasty to achieve their atonement.Â
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09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 16 m | Show | |
All summer Andy Reid works on various offensive schemes and innovations. His work and creativity is unleashed during the first month of the season when opponents aren't fully prepared for it. The combination of Reid and superstar QB Patrick Mahomes has resulted in the Chiefs never losing a September game in 11 tries with Mahomes under center. Mahomes has a mind-boggling 35-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during these games.  The Ravens haven't been able to stop the Chiefs losing each of the last three seasons to Kansas City. This time around the Chiefs are much healthier than Baltimore. Mahomes has completed 70.5 percent of his throws in three games against the Ravens for an average of 378.6 yards while accounting for 10 TD's with only one interception. The Ravens are going to have to try to stop Mahomes while possibly missing their two top cornerbacks. Marcus Peters is out and Jimmy Smith is questionable with an ankle injury.  I don't see the Ravens being able to slow down Kansas City while also being unable to keep up with Mahomes on the offensive end. The left side of Baltimore's offensive line is banged up, including star left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and the team is down to backup running backs with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards lost for the season.Â
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 54.5 | 35-36 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a very big total. Certainly superstar QB's Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are capable of producing huge scores. But a lot has to go right to buck this large of a total.  The Ravens run a lot. Even without their two top running backs, injured J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, their game plan is going to remain the same - stay on the ground to keep the ball away from the deadly Mahomes. The Ravens are ground-oriented. That's who they are. Lead running back Ty'son Williams is untested. Latavius Murray is a straight-ahead runner perfect for the Under. Recently signed veterans Le'Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman are both washed-up.  The Chiefs' defense gets reinforced this week with the expected return of star safety Tyrann Mathieu and respected pass rusher Frank Clark. The Ravens' offensive line gave up a lot of pressures and three sacks against the Raiders last Monday. Chris Jones is an elite pass rusher who the Ravens have to game plan against.  The Chiefs' have a new offensive line with three first-year starters. The strength of that line are veterans Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney. Brown and Thuney are better run blockers than pass protectors. So the Chiefs could be running more than usual especially if they build up a big lead.Â
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09-19-21 | Vikings +4.5 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 100 h 1 m | Show | |
The Cardinals were impressive in dismantling the Titans on the road this past Sunday. The Vikings,on the other hand, laid an egg losing in overtime to the Bengals.  Yes, the Vikings have serious offensive line injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks. But they have a very defensive front seven that will be made even better if linebacker Anthony Barr is back this week.  Mike Zimmer should have the Vikings in a very serious mood while the Cardinals return to the desert fat and happy. Kyler Murry is proving to be an elite talent. The Cardinals, though, are far from a complete team. They also are extremely vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Kirk Cousins has the skill position stars to take advantage with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.  The Cardinals deserve to be a home favorite. But no more than by a field goal.Â
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09-19-21 | Patriots -5.5 v. Jets | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 94 h 41 m | Show | |
Having watched both the Patriots and Jets it's clear New England is at least a touchdown better than the Jets - and that's being the road team. The Patriots dominated yardage and time of possession against the Dolphins. They should have won that game.  The Patriots rate enormous edges in the trenches against the Jets. New York had trouble protecting Zach Wilson against the Panthers and that was when they had its best offensive lineman, left tackle Mekhi Becton. He suffered a knee injury against Carolina and is out.  Bill Belichick is 23-11-1 ATS for 68 percent the past 36 times the Patriots have played following a loss. Belichick also is 9-1 the past 10 times he's faced a rookie QB. New England rookie QB Mac Jones is in a far better position to succeed than Wilson playing behind an excellent offensive line, with a much stronger defense and excellent, proven coaching.  The Jets barely averaged 15 points a game last season. They couldn't even reach that number against Carolina. Wilson didn't have time to throw and no ground game to rely on.Â
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09-19-21 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 94 h 39 m | Show | |
The Jets averaged an NFL-low 15.2 points last year. They managed just 14 points against the Panthers opening week. New England has a better defense than Carolina and the Jets had their best offensive lineman, Mekhi Becton, against the Panthers. Becton was injured in that game and won't play here.  The Jets still can't run the ball, nor protect their quarterback. Bill Belichick is a master defensive strategist. He is 9-1 the past 10 times when going against a rookie QB. This doesn't bode well for Zach Wilson.  The Jets figure to have a simple game plan. The Patriots aren't going to do anything fancy either in rookie Mac Jones' first road game. So expect a lot of running and short passing. Neither team has a stud running back.Â
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09-19-21 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 93 h 13 m | Show | |
The Saints played a great game against the Packers last week. But the Saints are not the 11-win power of past seasons. They have a turnover-prone QB and below average receivers with their top two wideouts hurt. Their defensive line depth is gone and their secondary is extremely vulnerable especially cornerback Marshon Lattimore out.  The Panthers are an ascending team in Matt Ruhle's second year. They have the weapons to exploit the Saints' secondary with Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore.  Carolina also has a lot of young talented defensive players. Brian Burns is an emerging star pass rusher. The Saints suffered a number of injuries last week, including one to center Erik McCoy, who is one of the better centers in the league.Â
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09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -107 | 93 h 15 m | Show |
All the preseason talk about the AFC North was about the Browns and Ravens. Lost in the glare of those teams is the Steelers, who happen to win 12 games last season and the AFC North. Pittsburgh led the NFL in sacks and had a top-three defense. There are new starters, but the Steelers' defense remains top-notch. Ben Roethlisberger is fresh right now. He has three strong wide receivers and a ground attack that now must be respected thanks to rookie running back Najee Harris.  Las Vegas isn't in Pittsburgh's class. The Raiders also are in a horrible situational spot. They are coming off the biggest victory since they moved to Las Vegas two years ago with their Monday night home upset of the Ravens, which was the first game in Las Vegas where fans could attend. Now the Raiders have to travel cross-country on a short week. They also draw an early start time.Â
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
The Giants have two major things against them besides traveling on a short week, which is already factored into the line. No. 1: A wretched offensive line that is taking on a very good Washington pass rush headed by emerging superstar Chase Young and underrated Montez Sweat. That offensive line - ignored during the offseason by Giants management - is down starting guard Shane Lemieux, too. Von Miller caused havoc in Week 1 during the Broncos', 27-13, road win against New York. That score is even more lopsided than the final score as Daniel Jones scored a meaningless TD on the final play.  No. 2: Jones. He's the most turnover-prone QB in the league. He has either fumbled or thrown an interception 57 times in 27 career starts. Jones isn't helped by the play-calling of dull-witted Jason Garrett, perhaps the least creative offensive coordinator in the NFL.  The perception, judging by the betting line of around a field goal, is that these teams are even given that Washington has home field, which generally is considered worth three points.  I don't consider these teams to be even, however. Where are the Giants' edges? I can't find any.  New York has a respectable defense. Washington has a top-five caliber defense.  Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is less likely to turn the ball over compared to Jones in what should be a conservative game. Terry McLaurin is easily the best wide receiver and I would take Antonio Gibson above Saquon Barkley as the top running back on the field.  Don't agree? Consider this then: Barkley averaged 1.8 yards last season before suffering his ACL tear. He averaged 2.6 yards against the Broncos in 10 carries. Barkley isn't likely ticketed for heavy duty here playing his second game in four days following his serious knee surgery. Gibson will be heavily featured.  The Giants yielded nearly six yards per carry against Denver running backs Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams.  I would give Washington the coaching checkmark, too, preferring the braintrust of Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner over Joe Judge and Garrett.Â
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09-13-21 | Ravens -4 v. Raiders | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 38 m | Show |
Sure the Raiders will be up for this Monday game being their first home game in Las Vegas in front of fans. It won't matter. The Ravens totally outclass the Raiders.  Baltimore is ready to go after still another unbeaten preseason. The Ravens have won and covered opening week each of the last five seasons with their average victory margin being by 30.2 points. The Raiders went 2-6 during their first year in Las Vegas last season.  The Ravens have been a strong road team under John Harbaugh winning 13 of their past 16 away contests. They also have covered 83 percent of the time as road chalk during the last two seasons.  The Ravens return nearly all of their starters from last year's 11-win team. Lamar Jackson should produce monster numbers against a Raiders defense that has ranked in the bottom-four each of the last four years.  The Raiders' personnel moves continue to puzzle. They got rid of key members of their offensive line. So a strength now is a major question mark.  The spotlight will be on the electrifying Jackson, but the Ravens also will control the trenches. The combination is enough to produce a win by double-digits.Â
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46 | 14-34 | Loss | -104 | 126 h 31 m | Show | |
The Bears don't have the dominant defense of several years ago. Still, their defense is respectable if not above average.  Chicago's problem isn't defense. The Bears offense isn't going to show any life until they make the QB switch to rookie Justin Fields. Veteran Andy Dalton last was decent five years ago. So I don't see the Bears producing many points with Dalton and an offensive line that appears weaker than last season. Chicago is banking on 39-year-old Jason Peters bailing out its offensive line. There's a far greater chance of Aaron Donald, the premier defensive lineman in the NFC, causing huge problems. Allen Robinson is Chicago's lone strong weapon. Rams superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey should handle Robinson leaving over-the-hill Dalton devoid of skill position talent around him, which he needs to have for any success.  The Bears and Rams have met each of the last three seasons. The scores were 24-10, 17-7 and 15-6. None came close to going Over. This one shouldn't either.Â
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09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 44 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 123 h 1 m | Show | |
There were a combined 32 and 34 points scored in the two meetings last season between these teams. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup this time, too.  The Dolphins added some enticing big-play weapons, but are basically a conservative team as Tua Tagovalioa remains largely untested and untrustworthy in his second season for Miami to feature a wide open offense. The Dolphins will be without deep threat, Will Fuller, in this game. He's suspended.  The Patriots have upgraded their defensive front seven, adding a lot of size and playmaking linebackers. Miami has a below-average offensive line. Bill Belichick is a master at defensive game-planning. He has had ample time to prepare for the inexperienced Tagovailoa. Dolphins coach Brian Flores, formerly an assistant under Belichick, knows this. New England is a run-first team starting a rookie QB, Mac Jones. The Patriots' offense lacks any explosion. So the Patriots are likely to be vanilla, too, relying on their defense and playing for field position. Miami has excellent cornerbacks. I highly doubt Jones tests them. Instead he'll be conservative going with the run and short passes.   Â  |
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09-12-21 | Broncos -2.5 v. Giants | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 122 h 12 m | Show | |
Teddy Bridgewater has won 65 percent of his NFL starts going 22-12. This has been accomplished because Bridgewater is mobile and a highly-accurate game manager-type who has had the good fortune to have played with strong defenses.  That's the case again this season. Denver's defense should be one of the best in the NFL with the return of pass rusher Von Miller and the addition of rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain to go with star pass rusher Bradley Chubb and a very strong secondary.  I don't see the Giants producing much against this caliber of defense. The Giants had the second-worst offense last season. They failed to address their offensive line shortcomings so I'm not expecting much, if any, improvement from turnover-prone QB Daniel Jones. Denver's defensive guru coach Vic Fangio is top-notch at mixing blitzing schemes and getting the best matchups.  Bridgewater has multiple weapons at his disposal, including Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Noah Fant and KJ Hamler.  The Broncos are at least a level higher than the Giants.Â
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09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52 | 38-13 | Loss | -109 | 119 h 1 m | Show | |
Given their offensive prowess and weak defense, the Titans are going to be involved in a lot of shootouts this season. This should be one of them.  The Cardinals averaged just a shade under 29 points during their first 10 games last season before Kyler Murray got banged-up. Murray is back healthy. The Cardinals' offensive line is improved and rookie Rondale Moore adds to Murray's weapons arsenal.  The Titans not only have the reigning two-time rushing champion in Derrick Henry, but added Julio Jones to go with A.J. Brown, who I consider a top-seven wide receiver. The Cardinals are inexperienced and vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Ryan Tannehill should produce a big game against this vulnerable secondary.Â
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09-12-21 | Vikings -3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 51 m | Show |
Much is made of the Bengals' excellent wide receiving group. But what really needs to be said about the Bengals is their serious flaws on defense and in their offensive line. They could have the worst guards in the league. The Vikings were a top-four defensive unit for three straight years until last year when injuries and opt-outs caused a huge drop. The Vikings have revamped their defense to their previous standards. Underrated Danielle Hunter is back and he's going to wreak havoc on the Bengals' pitiful offensive line. It remains to be seen how much mobility Joe Burrow will have in his first game since tearing his ACL/MCL last season. Defenses averaged 3.2 sacks of Burrow before he went down.  This could be Mike Zimmer's most-explosive Vikings team in his eight years at Minnesota. Dalvin Cook is the second-best all-purpose running back in the NFL and Justin Jefferson is a top-seven wide receiver. Kirk Cousins also has red zone master Adam Thielen to throw to.Â
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -7.5 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 47 m | Show |
I don't see the Cowboys being able to stay within double digits of the Buccaneers.  Unlike last season, when it took them half the season for them to gel under new QB Tom Brady, the Buccaneers are fully in sync. The Super Bowl champs have all of their starters back and their deep set of receivers should carve up a Dallas defense that was historically bad last season.  I don't expect the Cowboys to surrender 29.6 points a game and permit 34 TD passes like in 2020. But I certainly don't expect them to be one of the better defensive units either as they make the change to new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.  This will be Dak Prescott's first game since suffering a horrific broken ankle last year. He'll be behind a thin offensive line minus several players due to injuries and COVID. The Buccaneers are top-notch against the run so I'm not expecting a big game either from Ezekiel Elliott.  Super Bowl champions opening at home are a dominant 18-2 SU, 14-4-2 ATS. |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56.5 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 182 h 31 m | Show |
The Super Bowl is the one NFL game where public money outweighs sharp money. The public almost always bets Over especially on marquee matchups such as this one. The oddsmaker knows that. So I see value on the Under.  Much is being made of the Buccaneers being the home team because the game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. But as far as the total is concerned that venue is a plus for the Under. It's an outdoor stadium with a grass field. So it's not a fast surface. The two teams met there this past Nov. 29 and the Chiefs won, 27-24, for a combined final score of 51 points.  Patrick Mahomes is the most feared QB in football. Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous wideout. Travis Kelce the best tight end. I acknowledge all of that. But it's difficult to produce big points against a very good defense without a decent running attack. I don't see the Chiefs being able to run on Tampa Bay. No team could during the season. The Buccaneers had the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. The return of star nose tackle Vita Vea has only strengthened that unit. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't looked good after being out with hip and ankle injuries. Le'Veon Bell doesn't have much left and he missed the AFC title game due to a sore knee.  This puts nearly the entire onus on Mahomes. He's being asked to put up four-to-five touchdowns - as you need TD's not field goals to get above this high of a total - with a lackluster ground attack, facing a strong defense and without his starting offensive tackles. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz was put on injured reserve in Week 11 and left tackle Eric Fisher suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury in the AFC title game.  Mahomes was brilliant in the title game victory versus Buffalo. However, he was merely a mortal in his previous five games with an 8-to-5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. Mahomes hasn't faced an insider linebacker duo the caliber of Lavonte David and Devin White. These guys can not only effectively blitz, but also cover well. The Buccaneers also have two tremendous edge pass rushers, Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. Those two have combined for 45 1/2 sacks during the past two seasons. The Buccaneers have a solid secondary, too. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. showed star ability in his rookie season. Cornerback Carlton Davis shut down Michael Thomas and held Davonte Adams to 67 receiving yards during Tampa Bay's last two games.  Todd Bowles is an elite defensive coordinator. He gave Aaron Rodgers more trouble than any other defensive coordinator this season. Bowles is aggressive, but also shrewd. The Buccaneers can pick their spots blitzing - which is dangerous against Mahomes - because Barrett and Pierre-Paul are such good pass rushers and the Chiefs are minus their two best offensive tackles.  I envision the Buccaneers being conservative on offense using more running plays than expected. Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are healthy. They are good players for Under bettors because they are inside runners who are more reliable than flashy.  The Chiefs have a bend-but-don't-break defense. Many of their defensive statistics were below average. But they are above average in the category that matters most - points allowed. Only nine teams gave up fewer points per game than Kansas City, which allowed 22.6.  Chris Jones and Frank Clark give the Chiefs two good pass rushers. Safety play is huge versus Tom Brady. Kansas City is covered there, too. The Chiefs are deep at safety. Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are both excellent. Mathieu has the most interceptions of any safety during the past two years.  Here are some prop bet recommendations. Obviously best to shop because numbers and prices vary. Most of these props are courtesy of the Westgate sports book.  Under 10 1/2 Accepted Penalties  Accepted offensive penalties were the lowest in the NFL since the modern 32-team era. There seems to be an unwritten mandate from the league to officials to cut back on penalties.  Few penalties are likely going to be called in the Super Bowl. The league doesn't want their showcase game to be littered with yellow flags. There were just six penalties accessed in the NFC title game. Tampa Bay had only two. There were seven penalties marked off in the AFC championship game with Kansas City accounting for just three. During the 12 postseason games, there were 10 or fewer penalties in nine of the games. That's 75 percent.  The Buccaneers had 12 penalties in their three playoffs games for an average of four. The Buccaneers were tied for 20th in penalties during the regular season.  The Chiefs had the fourth-most penalties during the regular season. That's a big reason why this penalty total prop is at double-digits. However, the Chiefs had just three penalties marked against them in their AFC title win against Buffalo.  You could see in the title games that official's were only calling obvious fouls. They were letting a lot of physical defensive play, such as holding and grabbing, go especially in the Buccaneers-Packers game. I don't see why that would change for the biggest game of them all.  Cameron Brate Under 26 1/2 receiving yards Brate is a short-yardage, red zone target. I don't see Tom Brady looking for Brate outside the red zone when he has Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Leonard Fournette out of the backfield and fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski to throw to. This doesn't leave room for Brate.   Tyrann Mathieu Over 4 1/2 assisted/solo tackles Mathieu is one of the most productive safeties and he figures to be plenty busy. He's a defensive centerpiece, similar in chess terms to a queen. I wouldn't be surprised if he had more than four solo tackles. When you add assists, it's a no-brainer for me.  Ronald Jones Over 34 1/2 rushing yards I believe the Buccaneers are going to run more than some expect in order to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field for as long as possible. Leonard Fournette has the higher rushing Over/Under yardage figure, but Jones is Tampa Bay's best running back in my view. Jones had a breakthrough season rushing for 978 yards. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, which was the eighth-highest in the league. Fournette is going to get carries, but so is Jones.  Most Valuable Player I'd make a pizza wager on linebacker Devin White at 40-1.  I like the Under so a lower-scoring game than expected and a Tampa Bay victory could put White in contention. I do a Rotisserie-style fantasy football league in which tackles and sacks are separate categories. So I can tell you White is just a tremendous talent since I've watched him closely. He piles up tackles and gets sacks, too. There is recent precedent for defensive players winning Super Bowl MVP honors. It's happened twice in the last seven seasons with Malcolm Smith doing it and Von Miller achieving the feat five seasons ago. |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers OVER 51.5 | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a shootout. These team's offenses trump their defenses.  Tampa Bay produced 38 points on the Packers in their Week 6 matchup - and its offense has gotten better and more diversified since then. Tom Brady has the savvy and weapons to take advantage of the Packers' inexperienced linebackers and lack of depth in the secondary. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette not only provide Brady with reliable short-yardage running backs, but they set him up well for play-action. Green Bay doesn't have enough quality defensive backs to handle Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. The Packers also have extremely weak punt coverage so the Buccaneers should be operating in good field position. Not that the Buccaneers are going to be receiving many punts because I also see the Packers producing far more points than the 10 they managed in their 38-10 Week 6 loss to Tampa Bay. Green Bay led the NFL in scoring. That Week 6 game was the only time their offense was held in check.  Aaron Rodgers is as great mentally as he is physically. The Packers have made many adjustments since that loss. Their offense is in peak form. The Buccaneers love to blitz. That's the signature of their aggressive defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Rodgers is a master at reading the blitz. It's actually good for Rodgers that he's played the Bucs this season. He'll know what to expect. Green Bay's offensive line is playing better since that game even without injured star left tackle David Bakhitari.  Blitzing isn't going to hide the Buccaneers' warts in their secondary that Rodgers will expose. The Packers took apart the Rams' No. 1 defense last week. Green Bay's offense is too in sync to be slowed down at this late stage especially given the Hall of Fame form Rodgers is in now.   |
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01-24-21 | Bucs +4 v. Packers | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 132 h 24 m | Show |
If there is one NFC team that matches up well to Green Bay and can beat the Packers it's the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay proved that back in Week 6 when it took apart the Packers, 38-10. The Buccaneers shut out the Packers for the final three quarters. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season by far.  So what's happened since then? The Packers' defense has improved and Aaron Rodgers put that game behind him to have one of the most magnificent seasons in NFL history. The Packers have the league's No. 1 scoring offense, a good defense and home-field where the weather forecast is for temperatures in the 20s and around a 40 percent chance of snow.  But the Buccaneers also have improved. They, too, are peaking at the right time. Tom Brady is in sync with his new offense and receivers. Davonte Adams gives Rodgers the best receiver on the field. But Brady has the four next best receivers with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander can only lock up on one of Tampa Bay's trio of excellent wideouts.  Tampa Bay has won six in a row. The Bucs haven't lost by more than a field goal in their last nine games. Cold January weather doesn't bother Brady. He's certainly experienced it. Tampa Bay is averaging 36.6 points in its last five games. The Buccaneers put up 30 and 31 points in their playoff victories against two outstanding defensive teams, Washington and New Orleans. Green Bay's defense had just 11 interceptions. The Buccaneers picked off Drew Brees three times last Sunday.  The Buccaneers led the NFL in run defense holding foes to 80.6 rushing yards per game, 10 yards fewer than the NFL's second-best run defense, and now they could get back star nose tackle Vita Vea from injured reserve. He's expected to practice this week. The Packers couldn't run on Tampa Bay in their earlier meeting. Aaron Jones was held to 15 yards on 10 carries.  Inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David also make this a tough game for Green Bay. Those two not only can pressure the quarterback, but they are outstanding in pass coverage. They were dominant in Tampa Bay's victory against the Packers. Not to take anything away from Green Bay's smashing win against the Rams last week, but Aaron Donald only was about 50 percent because of a rib injury. The Packers didn't even need to double team him.  The Packers have proven vulnerable to power run teams. The 49ers exploited that weakness in the NFC title game last season and the Colts had that going for them in their victory against the Packers this season. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette give the Buccaneers a pair of power runners and provide Brady with needed balance. While the Buccaneers have some of the best linebackers in the NFL, the Packers' linebackers are composed of free agents and middle-to-late round draft picks.  Then there are special teams. Thus far the Packers have been able to cover up their weak punt and punt return teams. Green Bay ranks 30th in net punt average and 31st in punt returns. They also have a bad long snapper. These are areas that could bite the Packers now that they are playing their toughest opponents.   |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 57 m | Show |
I've never bought into that cliche of it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay, 34-20, opening week and defeated the Buccaneers far worse in Tampa, 38-3, in Week 9 when Tom Brady was more in sync with his new team. Brady had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those losses to the Saints.  Truth be told, Brady hasn't been that sharp when taking on strong defenses such as New Orleans. The Saints could have the hottest defense during the second half of the season. They've held seven of their last 10 foes to 16 points or fewer. New Orleans defense only had to be on the field for 21 minutes against the Bears last week. I like the Saints' defensive line, perhaps the deepest in the league, to win the battle of the trenches especially with the Buccaneers losing guard Alex Cappa to an ankle injury. Brady doesn't have the mobility to escape a strong pass rush, which the Saints can generate without blitzes.  Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS against playoff teams.  The Saints are the steadier team with a highly-efficient offense and the best playmaker on the field in Alvin Kamara. Drew Brees has his top wideouts healthy again, including Michael Thomas. New Orleans has home-field, far more postseason experience than Tampa Bay and the built-in confidence of two previous lopsided victories.  |
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01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 50 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 17 m | Show |
Lamar Jackson is back in MVP form. Josh Allen has become a top-five caliber quarterback. Offense is going to trump defense in this matchup.  Baltimore closed the regular-season averaging 37 points and 430 yards of total offense during its last five games. Jackson accounted for 15 TD's and 1,200 yards of total offense with a 110.6 passer rating during this span. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. J.K. Dobbins and Jackson will be the two best runners on the field. Buffalo ranked 17th in run defense.  The Bills gave up 472 yards to the Colts last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 35 minutes. Buffalo was fortunate the Colts didn't produce more than 24 points. They were inches away from doing that. The Ravens average more points per game than the Colts. The last time the Bills faced a dual threat QB anywhere near the caliber of Jackson was against the Cardinals back in mid-November when Kyler Murray put up 32 points against them. Jackson is superior to Murray. It wouldn't surprise if the Bills defense melted down in the fourth quarter from constant pounding.  The Ravens' defense was highly impressive in dispatching the Titans, 20-13, last week. Baltimore's defensive strengths matched up well to Tennessee. It also was the third time Baltimore and Tennessee had met in one calendar year. So the Ravens had a great deal of familiarity with the Titans. Baltimore is not so well acquainted with Buffalo.  Allen isn't the inconsistent, inaccurate quarterback he was during his first two years in the league. He broke out in a major way during his third season accounting for 45 touchdowns while breaking many of Buffalo's team passing records. The Bills broke their franchise scoring record by 43 points producing 501 points. The Bills are the opposite of the Ravens in that they set up the run by passing - if they even want to bother running.  The Ravens like to blitz. They put a lot of trust in their cornerbacks. Buffalo is a dangerous matchup for them because of Allen's tremendous mobility and receiving targets - Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown and emerging Gabriel Davis. Each of these wideouts brings something to the table. Diggs has been unstoppable this season. Beasley is a reliable move-the-chains target. Brown is a deep threat. Davis has caught six passes for 192 yards during the last two games.  Buffalo weather in January can be tricky. But the forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with 10-12 mph wind. So the weather shouldn't be a hindrance to the total.  |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | 48-37 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 51 m | Show | |
Despite holding out eight starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, T.J. Watt and center Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers nearly upset the Browns on the road this past Sunday losing 24-22 when Mason Rudolph threw an incomplete pass on a game-tying two point conversion try with 1:22 to play.  Now the Steelers are rested and host the Browns, who they have beaten 17 straight times at home. This includes a 38-7 beatdown of the Browns back in October. Cleveland hasn't made the playoffs since 2002. Pittsburgh is far healthier than the Browns, who are dealing with multiple COVID issues. Denzel Ward, the Browns' best cornerback, has been sidelined with COVID. Head coach Kevin Stefanski won't be able to coach the game because of COVID. Olivier Vernon, the Browns' second-best pass rusher, is out after tearing his Achilles in Week 17.  I question the Browns' maturity level and now their coaching without Stefanski.  The Steelers have a far better defense than the Browns. I also trust Roethlisberger far more than Baker Mayfield, especially playing at Heinz Field where his lifetime splits have been far better at home than on the road. Pittsburgh led the NFL with 56 sacks. Watt is your probable Defensive Player of the Year after leading the NFL with 15 sacks. The Steelers also had 27 takeaways, second-most in the league, and gave up the third-fewest points at 19.5 per game.  The line on this game has gone up. But I see the Steelers winning by at least a touchdown so it's worth getting involved.Â
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints -9.5 | Top | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 127 h 14 m | Show |
The Bears couldn't do it at home last Sunday against the Packers.They weren't good enough. They aren't good enough to stay close either to the Saints. Chicago made the playoffs only because the league allowed one extra wild card berth this season. The Bears are who they are - an 8-8 team with a single victory against a playoff team. That was by one point against the Buccaneers when they hosted Tampa Bay in Week 5 on Thursday night. The Buccaneers weren't fully in sync then and 43-year-old Tom Brady had to play on a short week.  Chicago's defense has regressed to just being slightly above average at best. I'm far from sold on the Bears' offense. Mitchell Trubisky was able to put up excellent numbers during the last quarter of the season because his opponents were the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Those are all bottom-six defenses. The Bears went 2-4 in their North Division. They were lucky to split with the Vikings and Lions, both of whom had terrible seasons.  New Orleans swept its South Division, which was more competitive top-to-bottom than the NFC North. The Saints don't have any glaring weaknesses. They scored the fifth-most points and gave up the fifth-fewest points. The Saints have the best shot of any team in the NFC to take down the Packers and capture the NFC Conference championship.  The Saints caught a huge break that this game is on Sunday. That extra day means Alvin Kamara will be eligible if he passes COVID protocols. The Saints also expect to get back Michael Thomas. He's an elite wide receiver. New Orleans still averaged 31.8 points in nine games without Thomas.  I believe this will be Drew Brees' final season. The Saints really want to win the Super Bowl to close out his era. New Orleans is going to be highly motivated and likely to pour it on the overmatched Bears because of previous postseason failures that were caused in heart-breaking fashion.  The Bears are this far on house money. It's house money they didn't earn, or deserve. Deep inside they know that after their Week 17 failure against the Packers. The Bears lack the quarterback, confidence and elite defense to hang with New Orleans.             |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 56 m | Show |
Alex Smith and Ron Rivera are great stories. This doesn't hide the fact, though, Washington is one of the worst offensive teams ever to make the playoffs. Washington hasn't broken the 23-point barrier during its last seven games. Only two teams averaged fewer yards per game than Washington, which is averaging 16 points the past three weeks.  Until throwing two TD passes against the Eagles this past Sunday night, Smith hadn't thrown more than 1 TD pass in a game all season. Smith is a heady veteran. But he is and always has been a game manager. He also is limited by a calf injury so his mobility - one of the few pluses to his game - is going to be restricted. It's enough of a concern that Rivera has said Taylor Heinicke could see some action. Heinicke is a fourth-stringer who shouldn't even be on an NFL roster.  Smith has always needed weapons around him. Washington doesn't have many. Its two best are WR Terry McLaurin, who is fighting through a high ankle sprain, and RB Antonio Gibson, who isn't 100 percent due to a toe injury.  Tampa Bay finished second in run defense last season. They were No. 1 this season against the run. The Buccaneers' pass rush and secondary will be up to full strength if Devin White, one of the best linebackers in football, Shaquil Barrett and cornerback Carlton Davis all return. I think they all will, but even if they don't Washington isn't going to produce many points because of Tampa Bay's defensive depth and aggressive schemes of ace defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.  Washington is worthy of respect strictly because of its defense, which gave up the second-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points. Washington also was second in pass defense. Washington has the pass rushers to bother Tom Brady, who did not fare well when he went up against better defenses this season.  No team has scored more than 20 points against Washington during the last seven games.Â
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01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
The task for Washington is simple. Beat the 4-10-1 Eagles and Washington is in the playoffs.  Washington has a top-five defense, but a weak offense with injuries to its best skill position players. So a conservative game plan of playing not to lose is justified in this instance for Washington.  Jalen Hurts has been an improvement on shell-shocked Carson Wentz. Opponents, though, by now have plenty of game film on Hurts. He remains largely untested as a passer. The Eagles are going to be without their best offensive player, Miles Sanders. Deep threat DeSean Jackson also is out. So is Dallas Goedert, who has been their best tight end. Need I mention the Eagles long ago lost all of their best offensive linemen. I definitely see Washington's defensive line winning the battle of the trenches.  On the Washington skill position side, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin are all questionable. That's Washington's best QB, RB and WR. All three would be limited if they were to play, especially McLaurin and Smith. The depleted Eagles secondary is vulnerable. Smith always has been a game-manager, though. If Smith can't play because of a calf injury than Taylor Heinicke would be under center for Washington. Heinicke makes Smith look like Brett Favre.   Philadelphia has one of the better defensive coordinators in Jim Schwartz. The Eagles will be up for this home contest, which is the nationally televised Sunday Night Game. This is their Super Bowl for what has been a hugely disappointing season. Lots of running and short, safe passes should keep the clock moving in what I anticipate to be a highly-intense defensive battle played in the rain. Â
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01-03-21 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 50 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 47 m | Show | |
The Colts defense isn't the elite unit it was earlier this season when they opened against five out of six mediocre-to-bad offenses. Their two major defensive statistics have shrunk from top-three to No. 8 in total yards and 12th in scoring defense. That's what can happen when during the last six games you've faced Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson (twice), Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger.  Now, though, the Colts draw the Jaguars. Jacksonville is averaging 13.6 points in its last three games going against the Titans, Ravens and Bears. I believe Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville's best QB. Doug Marrone disagrees. He's starting immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, who has done nothing to change the perception that he's strictly backup material - and that of the third-string kind. Glennon has a passer rating of just 75.4. He's averaging a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt and has as many interceptions as TD throws. Glennon would be hard-pressed to produce many points against a solid Colts defense if he had decent weapons - but he doesn't. The Jaguars will be without their star rookie running back James Robinson, their best wide receiver, D.J. Chark, and deep threat Collin Johnson.   The Colts rank second in run defense, bad news for Jacksonville backup RB Dare Ogunbowale. The Colts are third in forced turnovers with 24. The Jaguars rank 27th in protecting the football having committed 24 turnovers.  It's not so easy making the case against the Colts offense. I will say the Jaguars usually give an effort on defense. They do try. Joe Schobert and Myles Jack are excellent linebackers. But the main reason I don't believe the Colts are going to score a ton of points is game script. They won't need to.  Indy shouldn't be threatened in this game. The Colts don't need to open things up, or play at a fast tempo. They can take advantage of Jacksonville's 30th-ranked run defense by riding workhorse Jonathan Taylor, who has averaged 20.3 carries in his last five games. Taylor is very good for the Under because he's a between-the-tackles power runner.  The Colts lost star offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo to an ankle injury. This is bad news for 39-year-old Philip Rivers, who never was mobile even in his youth. The Colts surrendered 11 sacks in 749 snaps when Castonzo has been in the lineup. They've allowed 10 sacks in 274 snaps without Castonzo. So there's no reason for the Colts - with their season on the line - to take chances against an overmatched opponent when they can just ride Taylor while milking the clock.     |
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01-03-21 | Titans -7.5 v. Texans | 41-38 | Loss | -104 | 33 h 26 m | Show | |
Houston's season was finished before Halloween. Now the nightmarish 2020 year concludes for the Texans against Tennessee, one of only three teams in the NFL to average 30 points.  The Texans' bottom-five defense isn't going to be able to stop a high-powered Titans squad that is in must-win mode. Houston not only lacks the run defense to contain Derrick Henry, but doesn't have the defensive backfield speed to keep Ryan Tannehill from picking it apart throwing to wide receiving studs A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Henry has averaged 187 all-purpose yards with five TD's in his last three games against the Texans. Tannehill's numbers against Houston in the last three games are 67 percent completions, 8.7 YPA and an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  The Titans were slowed down at Green Bay last week because of snowy conditions. That's not going to be the case here in Houston's temperature-controlled venue. Houston's morale has to be questioned. The Texans have lost four in a row, including falling, 37-31, to the Bengals at home last week. A Bengal offense devoid of Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd produced 540 yards against Houston. That's enough to cause serious chemistry and confidence issues for any defense. It's scary to think how many points the Titans can put up against the Texans.  Deshaun Watson is pitted against that, expected by the oddsmaker to exchange enough points with the Titans to keep Houston's loss to around a touchdown. How? The Texans rank 30th in rushing. They are missing two of their three best wide receivers. Their tight ends are dreadful and their best blocker, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, is out with an ankle injury. The Titans' defense isn't very good, but it doesn't need to be very good to tee off on Watson since they are likely to be playing with a lead throughout.  Oh, yes, Watson is banged-up with a sore elbow and arm. Even as clueless a coach as Romeo Crennel is, he has to realize he can't risk his franchise QB if the Titans should get way in front. So it wouldn't be shocking if Watson didn't even finish this game. Â  |
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01-03-21 | Raiders v. Broncos OVER 51 | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm eagerly anticipating a no-pressure, let-it-all hang out shootout between two bad defensive teams in this Las Vegas-Denver meaningless finale.  Unpredictable January Denver weather won't be a spoiler to the offensive fireworks as the forecast is for temperatures in the high 40s with very little wind.   Jon Gruden hasn't been able to solve the Raiders' defensive woes since coming back as their coach three seasons ago. The Raiders were horrible again on defense this season ranking 29th in scoring defense. They've allowed 34.2 points per game in their last six games. If you discount a bad weather game in Cleveland where the wind made it nearly impossible to pass, the Raiders have permitted at least 26 points in 11 of their last 12 games.  Denver's defensive woes have been a far greater surprise. The Broncos haven't given up this many points in 10 years. A combination of a cluster injury problem in the defensive line and the offense committing the most turnovers in the league by a large margin have mainly been responsible for this.  The Broncos aren't going anywhere until they find out if Drew Lock is their QB answer. Right now Lock hasn't shown he is. But what I like about Lock is he's not content to be a game-manager. He attacks and he has decent weapons with Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant.  This could prove to be a pivotal game in Lock's career and the Broncos' franchise. Lock has a golden opportunity here against a bottom-five defense.   |
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01-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams +3 | 7-18 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show | |
Sean McVay may have picked up a few critics since the Rams' Super Bowl loss to the Patriots two seasons ago. I'm not one of them. The Rams have a far better defense than the Cardinals and McVay had an entire week to prepare fill-in QB John Wolford and devise a suitable game plan.  Losing Jared Goff is a negative. Goff, though, isn't an elite quarterback. He's slightly above average - and that's with a clean pocket and being in a warm-weather site. The Rams lose experience and downfield passing with the drop from Goff to Wolford. But they gain far more quarterback mobility. McVay is one of the top play-callers in the NFL. I'm confident he will put Wolford in a position to succeed.  The Rams won't have their top wide receiver Cooper Kupp, or probably two of their three best running backs. They still provide plenty of receiving weapons for Wolford with Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, underrated rookie Van Jefferson and one of the better tight end duos in the NFL, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.  The Cardinals have sprung a leak with their run defense due in part to injuries. 49ers backup running back Jeff Wilson rushed for 183 yards against them last week. Arizona has permitted 5.2 yards per run during the past four games. Effective running by the Rams can set up Wolford.  At best, the Cardinals' defense is mediocre. They rank 15th in scoring defense. LA's defense could be the best in the NFL ranking first in total yards and pass defense while giving up the third-fewest points at 19.3 per game.  Kyler Murray needs to run and roam free for the Cardinals to have success. Murray is hampered by a lower-body injury. He also has to deal with the monstrous Aaron Donald, the NFC's sack leader with 13 1/2. Murry relies on the magnificent DeAndre Hopkins. However, Hopkins isn't 100 percent either and he has his own defensive demon to content with - shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey.  So the outstanding Rams defense is well equipped to deal with the Cardinals' offensive strengths. Murry is 0-3 lifetime against the Rams, who have held him to a 57 percent completion rate, 5.8 YPA, a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and only an average of 14 yards rushing per game.  McVay has never lost to the Cardinals posting a 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS record versus Arizona. The Rams have beaten the Cardinals by an average of three touchdowns.  The Rams wouldn't need to win this game to earn a playoff spot if the Bears lose to the Packers. However, that game starts the same time as this matchup so the Rams will be assured of having their full focus and going all out.    |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -112 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
Look, I greatly respect the coaching staff of the 49ers especially Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. But the 49ers are out of gas both physically and mentally. It's difficult to keep a team together that misses the playoffs after reaching the Super Bowl the previous season and has the longest injury list in the league. San Francisco is 2-6 in its last eight games with every loss during this span coming by at least eight points.  Seattle is coming on especially its defense, which has surrendered the fewest points in the league during the last seven weeks. The Seahawks draw third-string QB C.J. Beathard, who is 2-14 in his 16 NFL appearances. He has a career mark of 17 touchdowns and 23 turnovers while being sacked 43 times. Seattle has the most sacks in the NFL since Week 8. Superstar safety Jamal Adams already has set a single season sack mark for a safety.  Aside from tight end George Kittle, Beathard doesn't have his top receiving weapons with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel ruled out. San Francisco is missing some of its top offensive linemen, too, including left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers' pop-gun, conservative ground-based attack isn't going to produce many points and will be helpless if the Seahawks jump to a big lead, which I anticipate. Seattle has held its past five foes to an average of 12.2 points.  Defensively the 49ers not only are missing multiple linemen - as they have all season - but have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cornerbacks K'Waun Williams and spiritual leader and warrior Richard Sherman are out. Emmanuel Mosely is questionable. Russell Wilson fired 4 TD passes in the Seahawks' 37-27 Week 8 victory against San Francisco. The Seahawks still have an outside shot at earning the NFC's top seed. So they aren't going to lack incentive.  |
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01-03-21 | Steelers +10.5 v. Browns | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
I get why the Browns are such heavy favorites. I just don't trust them even though the Steelers will be sitting a number of starters, including Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt, who probably will be named Defensive Player of the Year.  How proven and mature are the Browns in must-win spots when they are heavy chalk? How sharp is first-year Browns coach Kevin Stefanski when he had Baker Mayfield launch 53 passes against the Jets last week when his team was missing their top four wide receivers and had all inexperienced wideouts? How in sync will the Browns be having to deal with a heavy dose of COVID issues the past couple of weeks? As it is, the Browns will be minus their top cornerback, Denzel Ward, along with several other players due to COVID. Cleveland is expected to get back two key offensive linemen, Wyatt Teller and Jedrick Wills. But that's not a given. Wills was supposed to play last week, but was a last-minute scratch.  The Steelers are still the Steelers, a well-coached team with a lot of pride that could earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win and a Bills loss to the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is 22-8-2 ATS the past 32 times as an underdog for a long-term percentage of 73 percent in that role. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS the past seven times as favorites this season.  Mason Rudolph proved to be a stiff when called upon last season. I joked that Myles Garrett made a huge mistake by trying to injure Rudolph knocking him out of the game. Rudolph, in his third season, is said to be improved. Certainly he's not going to lack motivation. If I were a member of the Steelers, I would take it as an insult that Stefanski named Garrett team captain for this game after Garrett's reprehensible helmet-hitting actions against Rudolph last season. These teams don't exactly love each other.  Bottom line for the Browns is they need to win. But they don't need to win by double-digits.     |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 54 | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Sure on paper this game shapes up to be high-scoring. The Titans lead the NFL averaging 31.1 points per game. The Packers are right next to them averaging 31 points.  But there is more than just statistics at work here starting with the weather. There is a 90 percent chance of snow. Temperatures for this night game are going to be in the high teens and the wind will be blowing at 10-to-20 mph.  Those are far from plus conditions for quarterbacks especially for warm-weather QB Ryan Tannehill.  The Titans figure to stay on the ground a lot as Green Bay's run defense is worse than its pass defense. That's going to eat a lot of clock. The Packers' defense has been much better at home. Green Bay has held its seven home opponents to an average of 20.2 points a game.  Green Bay could manage just three points on a 51-yard field goal by Mason Crosby in the second half of its game against Carolina last week. The Packers figure to run the ball more than normal, too, considering the conditions. Plodding rookie running back AJ Dillon could see his first extended action with Jamaal Williams doubtful due to a quad injury. That would be an added bonus for the Under. |
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12-27-20 | Browns -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 24 m | Show |
Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has turned in one of the best coaching jobs in the NFL this season. The 10-4 Browns are in line to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They have a chance to win the AFC North trailing the slumping Steelers by one game. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh next week.  The Browns are far superior to the Jets in talent and coaching. But could the Browns get caught peeking ahead to their showdown against the Steelers against such a lowly opponent? That happened last Sunday to the Rams. They were upset by the Jets a week before meeting the Seahawks for an NFC West Division showdown.  It won't happen to the Browns, though. The Jets' shocking victory against the Rams sets up this handicap to Cleveland in two respects: The Browns won't take the Jets lightly after seeing what happened to the Rams and the Jets are fat and happy now that they won't go winless. The Browns also know they must come in with a strong effort because they will be short-handed down their top four wide receivers and linebackers B.J. Goodson and Jacob Phillip due to COVID-19.  I made this play before the news broke on Saturday about these six players being out. This would not be my NFL Game of the Year if I would have known that. However, I still very much like the Browns to cover this number. Not only has the line dropped because of this news, giving the Browns more value, but also Cleveland has the right scheme to deal effectively without their top wide receivers.  The Browns use more three tight end sets than any other NFL team with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku. Any one of these three could start for some NFL teams. Kareem Hunt is a very strong receiver out of the backfield. The Browns can deal without experienced wideouts because they are heavily ground-oriented with two outstanding running backs. Baker Mayfield relies on the run to set up his play-action. Cleveland is the No. 3 rushing team in the league. Nick Chubb and Hunt could be the best running back duo in the league. The Jets are decent in only one area - run defense. However, New York just lost its best player, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. He's out for the season after suffering a neck injury. So the Browns shouldn't have a problem running, especially with Mayfield playing his finest ball of the season. Mayfield has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games while averaging more than 300 yards passing during this span. The Jets have surrendered 30 TD passes. The Jets rank last in yards, passing yards and scoring at 14.7 points per game. The Browns have their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, back healthy. Sam Darnold has a pathetic 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Linebacker Mack Wilson is a capable replacement for Goodson.  Many teams have multiple injuries at this late juncture of the season. The Jets are no exception.  This is what Jets coach Adam Gase was quoted as saying, "We're running thin, those practice squad guys will get an opportunity this week." How good can the Jets' practice squad players be when they couldn't beat out the least talented starters/backups in the league? |
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12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -107 | 59 h 15 m | Show |
The Cardinals beat the 49ers, 24-20, back in Week 1 when San Francisco was healthy. Now the 49ers are decimated by injuries and demoralized following a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys last week that eliminated them from playoff contention one season after reaching the Super Bowl.  Oh, yes, San Francisco is down to third-string QB C.J. Beathard. Care to know the 49ers' record in Beathard's previous 15 appearances, including 11 starts? It's 1-14.  The 49ers are well-coached, but they can't overcome probably the highest and most significant injury list in the league. The 49ers have committed multiple turnovers in eight consecutive games due to sloppy quarterback play.  San Francisco is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games. All of the defeats have been by at least eight points. It's obvious the 49ers are out of fuel at this late stage. Not so for the 8-6 Cardinals who are battling for a playoff spot. They rank third in the NFL in yards per game and are 13th in total defense. Sparked by Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have produced 30 or more points in six of their last 10 games.
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 50 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 36 h 33 m | Show |
Quarterbacks usually get the most attention. But this matchup features the two best all-purpose running backs in the NFL, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara.  The Vikings have racked up at least 27 points in six of their last eight games. Only four teams have produced more yards than Minnesota. New Orleans' defense has seen some slippage during the last two weeks.  The Saints' defense also carries a heavy fatigue rating. They were on the field for a staggering 98 snaps against the Chiefs last Sunday. They catch a bad break that this game is on Friday afternoon giving them much less rest time.  The Saints are going to get their points against a ravaged Vikings defense that showed nine players on the injury report. Minnesota's best defensive player, linebacker Eric Kendricks, is expected to miss his third straight game because of a lingering calf injury.  A decimated defensive line, linebacker injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks have caused a steep decline in the Vikings' defense this season. Minnesota just surrendered 33 points to a Mitch Trubisky-led Bears offense last week.  The Vikings dealt the Saints brutal playoff losses in two of the last three seasons. So Sean Payton won't be adverse to running up a score if the Saints should break way ahead. Drew Brees should also be far more effective having gotten the rust off last week.  Playing on carpet inside a dome is another plus for the Over.Â
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