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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Loss | -109 | 250 h 54 m | Show |
Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total. |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 53 m | Show |
San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 22 m | Show |
While I don't expect there to be nearly the number of combined points there were in the two recent previous playoff games between these teams - 62 in the 2020 season AFC title game and 78 in the 2021 season divisional round game - I do believe there will be enough points produced to push this game safely Over the total.
Unlike last week, weather won't be a major concern. No snow, high wind or excessive cold. Temperatures are projected to be in the mid-20s. Josh Allen is playing at a high level and he won't be holding back on his running. Allen accounted for four touchdowns in the Bills' 31-17 wild-card round victory at home against the Steelers. Allen threw three TD passes and rushed for 74 yards and a TD. The last time the Chiefs faced an above average offense on the road was back on Dec. 3 when they surrendered 27 points to the Packers. I'm expecting a big performance from Patrick Mahomes, too. It's taken all season, but the Chiefs finally have found a consistent wide receiver to go with dependable tight end Travis Kelce. That receiver is rookie Rashee Rice, who in his last two games has caught 13 passes for 257 yards. Mahomes can exploit a terribly banged-up Buffalo defense that has a cluster injury problem at both linebacker and in the secondary. The Bills already were down their best linebacker, Matt Milano, and top cornerback, Tre'Davious White. Buffalo then lost four more defensive regulars against the Steelers, including leading tackler Terrel Bernard, cornerback Christian Benford and nickelback Taron Johnson. The Bills may not have their starting punter either as Sam Martin is dealing with a hamstring injury. Note, too, the short point spread. So there's a stronger than normal chance of overtime. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers -9.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Lost in the glare of the Packers' 48-32 smashing upset victory of the Cowboys last Sunday was that Green Bay's defense was on the field for 89 plays.
Now the Packers go back on the road for the fourth time in the last five weeks - and on a short week with this being a Saturday game - to face a rested and healthy 49ers offense that led the league in net yards per passing play, rushing touchdowns and had the best red-zone conversion rate. The 49ers produced the second-most yards in the league and third-most points. I don't like Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry and I don't trust Green Bay's defense. The Packers gave up 30 points, 26 first downs and nearly 400 yards of offense to Carolina just four games ago. It's scary to think how many points Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk can put up against the Packers defense, which was 28th in stopping the run and hasn't been innovative all season. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable, too, with an ankle injury. It's easy to overrate the Packers. After all, they just were seen burying the Cowboys in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score while the 49ers haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks. The 49ers are an elite, "A'' team. The Packers are two levels behind them and in a difficult situational spot. Green Bay has gone as far as it can go. Congrats to the Packers on a nice season, but it ends here and it ends in a big way. |
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01-15-24 | Eagles -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-32 | Loss | -120 | 154 h 59 m | Show |
The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers. The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing. |
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01-14-24 | Rams v. Lions UNDER 52.5 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline. |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 48-32 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 49 m | Show |
The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling. |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 28 m | Show |
I find this total too high for a pair of inexperienced playoff teams. C.J. Stroud is an extraordinary rookie. But he's going against a Cleveland defense that gave up the fewest yards per game and finished No. 2 in the metric DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Stroud also has to deal with maybe the best pass rusher in the league, Myles Garrett. |
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01-07-24 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 35 | 13-12 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an NFL regular season game masquerading as an exhibition game with an exhibition type total. |
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01-07-24 | Eagles v. Giants +5 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 136 h 9 m | Show |
The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed. |
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01-07-24 | Jets v. Patriots -138 | 17-3 | Loss | -138 | 132 h 15 m | Show | |
This very well could be Bill Belichick's final game as head coach of the Patriots after 24 seasons. I don't see Belichick losing at home to the Jets, a rivalry opponent his Patriots have beaten 15 times in a row! |
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01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens +3 | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Just because the Steelers are in a must-win spot to keep their playoff hopes alive, doesn't mean they will win. Yes, I understand the Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will be sitting out multiple starters, including Lamar Jackson. |
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12-31-23 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 44 | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show | |
The Vikings' defense has improved under ace defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota has held four of its last six opponents to 21 or fewer points. |
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12-31-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are not an elite team right now. But the Bengals aren't even a playoff team without Joe Burrow and D.J. Reader to fortify the team's run defense. So I'm going to buy low on the Chiefs to beat the Bengals by more than a touchdown at home. |
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12-31-23 | Chargers +5 v. Broncos | 9-16 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 24 m | Show | |
The demoralized Broncos aren't making the playoffs for the eighth straight season. Because of that and financial considerations, they could sit out Russell Wilson. Jarrett Stidham is Denver's backup QB. That's a huge dropoff. |
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12-31-23 | Rams v. Giants OVER 43.5 | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 41 h 37 m | Show | |
Since returning from a finger injury, Matthew Stafford has been one of the best QB's in the NFL throwing for 1,578 yards with a 15-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games. |
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12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -108 | 45 h 13 m | Show |
The Raiders buried the Chargers, 63-21, at home two weeks ago, drawing an opponent that picked that game to quit on their coach. Then last week the Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns to upset the Chiefs. That game might have been the Raiders' Super Bowl considering how much they celebrated and how emotional it was for interim coach Antonio Pierce.Â
Pierce is an upgrade on the egregious Josh McDaniels, but he's not in the class of the Colts' Shane Steichen. The oddsmaker has priced this matchup like these two teams are even considering Indy's home-field advantage and an early start time for the Raiders. Yes, those are edges for the Colts. But the Colts also are much better than the Raiders. Thanks to the innovative Steichen, the Colts rank in the top-10 in scoring. They are 5-2 in their last seven games. Jonathan Taylor is back and primed for a big game. Michael Pittman is expected to play, too, after being out last week with a concussion. That gives Gardner Minshew his two best weapons. The Raiders rank 25th in scoring and 29th in total yards. Rookie Aidan O'Connell is in the argument for worst starting quarterback. Josh Jacobs has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is questionable. |
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -6 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 45 m | Show |
This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's. |
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12-25-23 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 41 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 49 h 22 m | Show |
This is the supreme fade spot on the Raiders' offense after they put up 63 points against the hapless Chargers at home last week. Despite that result, Las Vegas' offense isn't very good, quarterbacked by Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders averaged just 11.5 points in their previous four games before hosting the Chargers. |
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12-24-23 | Cowboys v. Dolphins UNDER 49 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
It's the star skill position players who come to mind first when thinking about this Cowboys-Dolphins marquee matchup. Those players are healthy with the exception of Tyreek Hill, who I do expect to play after he missed last week because of an ankle injury.
But it's injuries on the offensive lines and the underrated defenses that command my attention making me like the Under here. The Cowboys' secondary ranks second-best in the league in road games, holding quarterbacks to 150.9 net passing yards. Micah Parsons has 12 1/2 sacks. I rank him as one of the three best pass rushers in the NFL. Right tackle Austin Jackson is going to be lined up against Parsons. Jackson is dealing with an oblique injury. While I expect Jackson to play, the Dolphins will be without center Connor Williams and two other starters, Robert Hunt and Isaiah Wynn. Tua Tagovailoa is not a mobile quarterback. Miami's defense has come on. It's much improved and Dallas has its own offensive line injuries. Star left tackle Tyron Smith is out. Pro Football Focus ranks Smith as the NFL's third-best offensive tackle. All-Pro right guard Zack Martin is questionable with a quad injury. Bradley Chubb is having a dominant pass rushing season for the Dolphins. He's forced a league-best six fumbles and has 9 1/2 sacks. Dak Prescott has played much worse on the road. His home/road split is 304 passing yards with a 122.5 quarterback rating and a 20-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to 216 yards passing per game, an 84.2 passer rating and an eight-to-five touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road. |
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12-24-23 | Seahawks v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Geno Smith has missed Seattle's last two games. When Smith last played it was against the Cowboys. He accounted for four touchdowns and threw for 334 yards leading the Seahawks to 35 points in a 41-35 road loss. Smith is capable of games like that aided by having three excellent wide receivers and two good running backs. Smith will be back in action for this matchup. |
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12-24-23 | Lions v. Vikings OVER 47.5 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
The last three games in this series have gone Over. There have been at least 52 points scored during each of those past three games. I see that pattern continuing. |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 37.5 | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 47 h 35 m | Show | |
The starting quarterbacks are going to be backups Jake Browning and Mason Rudolph. Ja'Marr Chase is out.
So why go Over the total? Browning has been sneaky good and both defenses will be missing key players. The Steelers will be without their starting safeties, Minkah Fitzpatrick - one of the best in the league - and Damontae Kazee. Browning has thrown for 953 yards while accounting for seven touchdowns in Cincinnati's last three games. The Steelers gave up 30 points to the Colts last week and 21 points to the Patriots two weeks ago. New England is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL, averaging 13.3 points. So I see the Bengals getting their share of points. The Steelers should get theirs, too. Pittsburgh piled up a season-high 421 yards of offense when the teams met four weeks ago. Now the Bengals will be minus nose tackle D.J. Reader, one of the top run defenders in the league. I'm not a fan of Rudolph. But the Steelers should be able to run effectively on the Bengals using Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to set Rudolph up for success. Rudolph has three excellent receiving options with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and tight end Pat Friermuth. The Steelers are throwing more to the middle of the field since they got rid of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. That bodes well for Friermuth. |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
I've been looking to fade the Saints and this is the right spot. Both teams are 7-7, but the Rams are much the superior team. LA doesn't hold a huge home field advantage compared to other team's. However, the visiting team playing on Thursday is at a big disadvantage. So I believe this point spread is well short.
The Saints have beaten the Giants and Panthers at home during the last two weeks. Typical because New Orleans has played the easiest schedule. The Rams have drawn one of the more difficult schedules going against the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, Browns and Ravens, who they lost in overtime on the road two weeks ago. Since Matthew Stafford returned from his finger injury, the Rams have gone 4-1 SU and ATS. Stafford has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last four games. Kyren Williams has emerged as one of the top running backs in the league averaging 124.3 rushing yards the last four games. Cooper Kupp has come alive, too, catching 16 passes for 226 yards during the last two weeks. The Rams are averaging 33 points during the last four weeks. The Saints' defense is down from past seasons and their offense is mediocre at best. |
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12-17-23 | Commanders +7 v. Rams | 20-28 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
There is one thing the Commanders have excelled at this season, covering as a road underdog. They are 5-1 ATS in that role. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -3 | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 123 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm selling high on the Bears, who have won three of their last four games but haven't faced an elite defense like this on the road all season. |
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12-17-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Patriots | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do. |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 26 m | Show | |
The Lions' offensive line is back healthy, Jared Goff is at his best in a dome setting and the Broncos have been thriving because of takeaways. I see the Lions playing a clean game here. That would be bad news for Denver. The Lions have far more weapons than the Broncos. Detroit also has played three NFC North Division foes in its last four games. Those teams know the Lions. The Broncos don't. Detroit is 3-0 versus AFC West Division teams this season defeating the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers.  This is Denver's first dome game of the season. It's not a good setting for the Broncos.  The Lions may not be a serious Super Bowl threat, but they are better than they've shown since Thanksgiving.Â
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12-16-23 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 42 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a low total for a Colts home game. Indy has gone Over in 69 percent of its games under innovative and aggressive Shane Steichen. |
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12-14-23 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. |
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12-11-23 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 46 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
Miami has the most explosive and intriguing offense in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the league in yards and are second in points at 32 per game. They also have had the most plays of plus 25 and plus 50 yard gains. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 13-33 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 15 m | Show | |
Dallas is 9-3. The Cowboys have crushed a lot of bad teams. They've faced only two above .500 opponents, though, and lost those two games, falling to the Eagles and 49ers. |
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12-10-23 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 6 m | Show |
There are multiple bad weather games this week. This isn't one of them. The forecast is for a sunny day with temperatures in the 40's and little wind. |
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12-10-23 | Texans v. Jets +3.5 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 64 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston has been a major surprise this season. So has C.J. Stroud, who looks like a lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.Â
But this is a clear buy low/sell high situation to take the Jets and go against the Texans. The warm-weather, roof-enclosed Texans are heading into cold and bad weather to face a disappointed Jets team that seems ready to take their season-long frustrations and jealousy out on a beatable opponent such as this. I actually believe Zach Wilson will provide a spark to a Jets offense that encountered one of the worst two-game quarterback stretches of the season with Tim Boyle. I expect a fresh Wilson to be improved after his two-game benching. He has the best running back, Breece Hall, and top wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, on his side in this matchup. The Texans rank 26th in pass defense. Stroud will be without explosive Tank Dell, the Texans' touchdown leader and second-leading receiver. The Jets have the third-best pass defense in the NFL. They haven't allowed a 300-yard passer during their last 30 games. |
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12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 64 h 20 m | Show |
This game sets up very badly for the Jaguars. Not only is warm-weather Jacksonville traveling into cold and bad weather conditions on a short week, but doing it without their first and second string offensive left tackles and most consistent wide receiver, Christian Kirk.  The Jaguars are facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has outscored opponents, 113-61, at home in going 5-1.  If you discount a 28-3 loss to the Ravens, the Browns are giving up an average of 6.6 points in their five other home contests.  Joe Flacco is a huge upgrade on P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
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12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers UNDER 42.5 | 19-27 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 53 m | Show | |
Jordan Love has had two strong games in a row. That was against the Chargers and Lions. Now he steps up facing a much better defense. Kansas City surrenders the third-fewest points per game at 16.5. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points in a game all season. |
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12-03-23 | Browns +4 v. Rams | 19-36 | Loss | -120 | 63 h 38 m | Show | |
The Rams were able to bully a bad Cardinals defense last week. They won't be able to do that against an elite, well-coached Browns defense. |
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12-03-23 | Browns v. Rams UNDER 40.5 | 19-36 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 37 m | Show | |
The Rams are going from playing a bottom-two defense in Arizona to meeting a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards. Night and day. Before lighting up the Cardinals' dreadful defense last week, the Rams had averaged 14.2 points in their previous four games. The Rams' passing game isn't as good as it looks on paper with Cooper Kupp being close to a non-factor with only six receptions in his last three games for 77 yards. The Browns can win this game with their tough defense and ground-control running attack. The only thing that can beat the Browns is turnovers. So look for Cleveland to be ultra-conservative on offense knowing that immobile Joe Flacco will be under center. The Rams have held their last three opponents - Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers - to a combined average of 16.6 points. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers -3 v. Eagles | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 63 h 12 m | Show |
The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game. |
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12-03-23 | Cardinals v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -105 | 40 h 44 m | Show |
Finally free of obtuse offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers produced a season-high 421 yards against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett wasn't just restricted to throwing sideline passes like before. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards using the middle of the field. Pittsburgh has a strong 1-2 running punch of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to go with one of the better wide receiver tandems, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -9 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers +141 | 20-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
The Chargers are extremely frustrating to get behind with their knack for blowing leads and bad coaching. In terms of talent, though, the Chargers are right there. Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler are top-five at their respective positions.  This will be the Ravens' first game without tight end Mark Andrews, who is Lamar Jackson's security blanket. The Ravens' wide receivers are all nursing injuries. They are likely to play, but could be hampered. The Chargers are tough to run on. So Jackson is likely going to have to deliver a strong passing game. I'm not sold that he can do that. This would be a good spot to buy one-half point taking plus 3 1/2. When getting 3 or more points, the Chargers have covered 15 of the last 16 times.Â
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11-26-23 | Bills v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
There's a chance of rain, but no need to be scared off by the weather because wind isn't a factor. |
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11-26-23 | Browns v. Broncos -114 | 12-29 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
Everybody is talking about how good the Browns' defense is even saying it's Super Bowl caliber. However, Cleveland's defense is far less intimidating on the road. The Browns have surrendered an average of 29.7 points a game in four away games this season. |
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11-26-23 | Bucs v. Colts OVER 45.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
The numbers are 64.6 percent completions for 2,389 yards and 15 TD passes. Those numbers belong to Baker Mayfield. Surprised? Mayfield is having a below-the-radar good season. The Buccaneers have no ground attack, but they can effectively air it out. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 40.5 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show | |
The weather will be fine for this Friday matchup. So the total can't be this low on a Dolphins game. Miami is the best offensive team in the NFL being first in points at 30.5 a game and in yards at 434.  The previous lowest total on a Miami game this season was 44. Now look at this total. The reason is Tim Boyle being the Jets' newly named starting quarterback.  Before getting to Boyle, it should be pointed out the Jets' defense is wearing down from overwork. New York is giving up an average of 25 points a game during its past three games. If Miami hits its season average, or even close to it, the Jets don't need to put up many points.  Can they do it with Boyle?  Boyle's numbers are terrible. He has thrown 120 NFL passes resulting in three touchdowns and nine interceptions. But there's a key intangible here. The Jets will have a different frame of mind instead of a defeatist attitude they had with Zach Wilson.  Boyle has more experience than Wilson. He prepares extremely hard. He also is in sync with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers from his two years spent with those guys as a backup quarterback for the Packers.  The Dolphins rank 23rd in scoring defense allowing 23.8 points a game. Boyle has two excellent weapons in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. This is the Jets' season so they'll be less conservative.Â
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11-23-23 | Commanders +13.5 v. Cowboys | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
This clearly is a buy low on the Commanders sell high on the Cowboys play. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
The Chiefs beat the Eagles at a neutral site in the Super Bowl and they'll beat them at home. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last dozen home games.
Kansas City is the healthier team and has the better defense. It's remarkable how good the Chiefs' defense has gotten. Kansas City ranks No. 2 in scoring defense giving up 15.9 points per game, ranks fourth in fewest yards allowed and is fifth in pass defense. The Eagles' defense can't match that given their vulnerable secondary. Philadelphia entered this week allowing 19 TD passes, third-worst in the league, while ranking 28th in pass defense. Jalen Hurts might be the second-best QB in football. But Patrick Mahomes is No. 1. Hurts also will be missing his third-best receiver, injured tight end Dallas Goedert. Both teams were idle last week. No coach in history has been better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 21-3 in that role. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings v. Broncos -133 | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 22 m | Show | |
The Broncos have their confidence up riding a three-game winning streak with the last two victories coming against the Bills and Chiefs. |
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11-19-23 | Raiders v. Dolphins -11.5 | 13-20 | Loss | -120 | 123 h 24 m | Show | |
Afraid to lay big chalk in the NFL? Don't be. Double-digit favorites are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS.  Look for the Dolphins to continue that run of success. Miami comes off its bye with De'Von Achane eligible to play again and Jaylen Waddle at 100 percent. The Raiders' soft zone coverage may work against Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, but Tua Tagovailoa is going to pick their vulnerable secondary apart.  The Dolphins lead the NFL in most points and yards by wide margins. They've lit up far better defenses than the Raiders.  Not only does offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel have extra time to prepare more innovations, but the Raiders are traveling cross-country to play at an early start time for them. This is with a rookie QB and rookie head coach.  Miami has beaten all the mediocre-to-bad teams on its schedule. The Dolphins' losses have come when stepping up - Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. This is a monster step down after their last game against the Chiefs. The Dolphins, by the way, had their best defensive half of the season in that game holding Kansas City scoreless in the second half.  The Dolphins have been dominant at home, too, winning 16 of the past 18 times. The Raiders are 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 during their past four road games. They have road losses of 28 points to the Bills, 18 points to the Bears and 12 points to the Lions.Â
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11-19-23 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show | |
This has the potential for being a below-the-radar shootout. Trevor Lawrence is way overdue for a big game and he's dropping way down in class after going against the 49ers last week. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 7 m | Show | |
The Texans are 5-0 as an underdog this season. However, when favored they are 0-3 ATS this season. Until this season, the Texans hadn't been favored in 22 consecutive games. Yes, Houston is much improved thanks to C.J. Stroud and better coaching. But the Texans are overpriced because this isn't the Cardinals of past weeks. |
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11-19-23 | Chargers -3 v. Packers | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 42 m | Show |
As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. |
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11-12-23 | Jets +1 v. Raiders | 12-16 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 12 m | Show | |
The timing is right to back the Jets off their Monday night home loss to the Chargers while the Raiders rode the excitement and relief of having Josh McDaniels finally getting fired to a victory against the lowly Giants. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 40 m | Show |
The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory. |
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11-12-23 | Falcons -120 v. Cardinals | 23-25 | Loss | -120 | 87 h 21 m | Show | |
If there's one thing the Falcons can do it's beat bad teams such as the Cardinals. Atlanta is 4-2 against .500 or below foes. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 85 h 50 m | Show | |
After three consecutive losses - one of which occurred against the Browns on a missed 41-yard field goal with six seconds left - I'm buying low on the 49ers. |
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11-12-23 | Saints -145 v. Vikings | 19-27 | Loss | -145 | 84 h 29 m | Show | |
The Falcons should have fired Arthur Smith for letting his Falcons lose, 31-28, to the Vikings and Joshua Dobbs last Sunday. It's not going to happen to defensive whiz Dennis Allen and the Saints. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night. |
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11-05-23 | Bills v. Bengals OVER 49.5 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 55 m | Show |
It's no coincidence the Bengals put up 31 points on the road against a strong 49ers defense last week. Joe Burrow is finally healthy. He looked great. The rest of the Bengals are healthy, too. Joe Mixon actually displayed some explosiveness for the first time this season. |
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11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers +3 | 27-13 | Loss | -120 | 64 h 29 m | Show | |
If there's one game Panthers coach Frank Reich wants to win more than any other it's this one against the Colts, a team he was fired from after coaching them the previous five years. |
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11-05-23 | Commanders v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
The Commanders' already horrific defense just traded defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Those two were maybe their best defenders. The Patriots are minus pass rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Now linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is questionable with a hamstring injury. Those are New England's three top defensive players. |
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11-05-23 | Rams v. Packers -160 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
If you're going to undergo a youth movement at the skill positions, you better have good coaching. The Packers lack leadership both on the field and on the sidelines. Their defense underperforms to their talent level and Matt LaFleur offers nothing innovative to help Jordan Love. It's obvious the Packers' success during LaFleur's previous three seasons was due to Aaron Rodgers carrying the team. |
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11-05-23 | Cardinals v. Browns -11 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
The game hasn't even started and already Clayton Tune is hearing Myles Garrett's footsteps. |
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11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 36.5 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
Unless there's bad weather or key skill position injury concerns, this is too low of a total. The weather is going to be fine and Derrick Henry is set to play. DeAndre Hopkins is likely to suit up, too, so I'm going Over. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 43 h 6 m | Show |
Both the Raiders and Lions were humbled last week. The Lions were destroyed, 38-6, by the Ravens while the Raiders were embarrassed by the Bears, 30-12, who were giving rookie QB Tyson Bagent his first NFL start. |
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10-29-23 | Bears v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
This sets up as a get-well game for Justin Herbert, who has had a disappointing season given his high bar. The Bears defense turned dreadful after the team dealt star linebacker Roquan Smith and pass rusher Robert Quinn at midseason last year. |
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10-29-23 | Rams v. Cowboys OVER 45.5 | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
Dak Prescott is off his best game of the season. The Cowboys' offensive line is as healthy as it has been all season and getting more in sync. Dallas has had two weeks to prepare, being on its bye last week. The Rams defense is mediocre at best and is stepping up in class after having just played the Steelers and Cardinals. |
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10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers +1 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
The Bears are the Packers' oldest rival. But it's the Vikings who the Packers want to beat more than any other team. It has been that way for years. The spot sets up perfect for Green Bay to do just that. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers -6.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 117 h 44 m | Show |
The Vikings played their first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday. They managed only 220 yards of total offense, reaching the red zone just once. Yet they managed to win because they were playing the Bears, who had lost Justin Fields to injury during the game. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -145 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 47 m | Show | |
Unless the Eagles were at full strength, I was going to stay away from this matchup. But, now, after seeing Friday's updated injury report, I'm backing Philadelphia.
All of the key Eagles who were banged-up, are expected to play. That means offensive tackle Lane Johnson, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Godert, defensive tackle Jalen Carter and Darius Slay. The Dolphins are the talk of the NFL leading the league by a wide margin in points and yards. But the Eagles are stronger in the trenches and aren't too shabby either when it comes to putting up points ranking No. 2 in total yards, second in rushing and fifth in scoring. The Eagles are 5-1 and have yet to play to their capabilities. Miami also is 5-1. The Dolphins' five wins have come against foes with a combined record of 5-24. Miami's great offensive numbers are skewed by its 70-20 home victory against the 1-5 Broncos. Philadelphia has the better defense with elite pass rushers. Slay being back is huge for the secondary. Carter could be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Tua Tagovailoa is not mobile and he'll be dealing with a weather element he's not used to - a night game in Philadelphia with wind in the 12-15 mph range. Only once have the Dolphins had a step-up game this season. It didn't turn out well for them. The Bills crushed the Dolphins, 48-20. |
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10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
The Chargers are a frustrating team to get behind because of Brandon Staley's perplexing on-field decisions.  But there are two things you can say about the Chargers: They possess a lot of talent and they keep games close. LA hasn't lost a game by more than three points during its last 11 games.  Kansas City went 2-0 versus the Chargers last season. Each win was by three points. The Chiefs' offense is worse this season and the Chargers are improved. The Chargers are averaging 25.4 points and have only three turnovers. The Chiefs are averaging 24.5 points and have turned the ball over nine times. If you discount a 41-10 win against the hapless Bears, the Chiefs would be averaging 21.2 points in their last five games.  Patrick Mahomes and his merry band of mediocre wide receivers have yet to get in sync. Mahomes is frustrated with them. Who can blame him?  Kansas City's defense has played much better than LA's. However, the Chiefs have just played four bad-to-mediocre offenses - the Bears, Jets, Vikings, in which Justin Jefferson suffered an injury, and Broncos.  The Chargers' defense is getting better as they get healthier with the return of star safety Derwin James and linebacker Erick Kendricks. The Chargers have 21 sacks in their last four games. Their defense is ascending, while the Chiefs' defense goes against the best quarterback, Justin Herbert, they have faced all season.Â
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10-22-23 | Steelers v. Rams OVER 43.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 46 m | Show | |
Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are up to their old dominant ways. The Rams' wide receiving corps is at peak efficiency right now with the emergence of rookie Puka Nacua and vast improvement shown by Tutu Atwell. |
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10-22-23 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -7 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 88 h 28 m | Show | |
The Seahawks had won three in a row, including beating the Lions, until losing to the Bengals this past Sunday.  Look for the Seahawks to get back on the winning track here. They beat the Cardinals twice last season, each time by 10 points. The Cardinals are worse this season and the Seahawks have gotten healthier in their secondary and offensive line. I see another double-digit victory by Seattle.  Arizona ranks in the bottom-six defensively in the two most important categories, points allowed and yards given up. The Seahawks can open their offense now more for Geno Smith with their starting tackles back in action.  Joshua Dobbs is a very limited QB. He's especially ineffective without the Cardinals' one decent running back, injured James Conner. Dobbs has completed fewer than 50 percent of his throws during the past couple of games. This is really egregious because he rarely throws downfield. He's averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt during this span and has more interceptions than TD passes.  Seattle's defense could really come on with cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen along with the return of dominant safety Jamal Adams to shore up the secondary.Â
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10-22-23 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 41 | 25-29 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 3 m | Show | |
The Patriots have the second-worst scoring offense in the NFL at 12 points a game. It's not just bad turnovers from Mac Jones. New England's battered offensive line is terrible and the skill position players are below par especially at wide receiver.
Buffalo has key defensive injuries. The Bills, however, are deep on defense and can handle weak offenses. Buffalo held Las Vegas to 10 points, Washington to three points and the Giants to nine points. The Bills have struggled to get in rhythm offensively the past two weeks averaging just 17 points against the Jaguars and Giants. Josh Allen may not be 100 percent. The Patriots are well-coached defensively. They rank 10th in defensive total yards. This is an intense division rivalry matchup. Points will be at a premium. Weather could factor, too. Heavy wind is in the forecast with a chance of rain. |
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10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens -155 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 84 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on the Lions playing their second consecutive road game on grass. The Ravens' defense is extremely intimidating at home. The Ravens surrender the second-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points per game. |
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10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens UNDER 42.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 52 m | Show |
Take the Lions out of their dome. Put them on a grass field in windy conditions against an elite defense and they are not going to put up fancy numbers. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 40 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 54 m | Show |
The Saints are a dead nuts Under team. They have gone Under in 15 of their last 16 games, including all six this season. They've played 12 straight games where the combined score was below 40 points.
Jacksonville has a strong run defense ranking No. 3, but its offense has been disappointing. Trevor Lawrence has been decent but not great and is banged-up. So he may not be 100 percent especially given the short week. The Saints' passing attack has been a disappointment with Derek Carr. The Saints also sustained several offensive line injuries this past Sunday. New Orleans is averaging just 18.2 points a game. |
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10-15-23 | Giants +15.5 v. Bills | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 9 m | Show | |
I know the Giants are a hard sell even though this is the largest point spread of the season. Daniel Jones is out. So is left tackle Andrew Thomas, the team's best offensive lineman. I don't expect Saquon Barkley to return for this game either.  But the Bills aren't without key injuries either. They will be missing three important defensive players: linebacker Matt Milano, cornerback Tre'Davious White and nose tackle DaQuan Jones.  The Giants have veteran Tyrod Taylor to fill in for Jones. He's a journeyman. But his mobility and experience make him one of the better backup quarterbacks.  There are three other factors as to why the Giants can stay within two TD's.  At 1-4, the Giants are in desperate shape. They really can't take a loss here. The Bills have a division game up next against the Patriots on the road. They don't want to show anything new to Bill Belichick so they'll be as vanilla as possible.  The Bills are returning from London. Any American who has flown to London and back realizes it takes at least a few days to fully get over jet lag. So there is the real possibility of the Bills being flat for this contest. Then there's the Brian Daboll angle. He was the Bills' popular and effective offensive coordinator before taking the Giants job last year. Daboll doesn't want to be embarrassed on national TV with this being the Sunday night game. I doubt that Sean McDermott and Josh Allen run up a score on their buddy Daboll. Â
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10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 16 m | Show |
You have to go back to Bill Belichick's first year as head coach of the Patriots in 2000 to find New England this bad.   The Patriots have hit rock bottom losing by a combined, 72-3, to the Cowboys and Saints during the last two weeks.  So I'm buying as low as possible on the Patriots as they drop way down in class to face the Raiders.  Las Vegas has yet to break 18 points in a game. The Raiders are on a short week in a letdown spot after beating the Packers at home on Monday night.  Belichick has lost a lot of his coaching luster during the past couple of seasons. But he's still miles ahead of Josh McDaniels when it comes to coaching. McDaniels seems to make mistakes in crucial on-the-field decisions every game.  The Patriots are going to run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott while Mac Jones mixes in a few short passes. This is the right game plan to attack a Raiders defense that guards against the long ball and heavily relies on Maxx Crosby to create havoc.  Belichick is familiar with Jimmy Garoppolo having coached him when Garoppolo was in New England. Belichick can exploit Garoppolo's many weaknesses. Garoppolo leads in the NFL in interceptions with seven despite missing a game. The Raiders rank last in rushing, 30th in scoring and 29th in total yards.
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10-15-23 | Saints v. Texans UNDER 42.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 31 m | Show | |
Dennis Allen isn't a very good head coach. But he's an elite defensive coach. The Saints have turned into a dead nuts Under team with Allen. |
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10-15-23 | Commanders v. Falcons -135 | 24-16 | Loss | -135 | 44 h 60 m | Show | |
Maybe the Commanders get things turned around - although I have no confidence in Ron Rivera - but until there is evidence of that, they remain a team to fade. Washington has lost three in a row with the latest being, 40-20, to the previously winless Bears at home. |
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10-15-23 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 46 m | Show | |
Lots of dropped passes and six lost fumbles have skewed the Ravens' offensive numbers. But Baltimore remains aggressive in its new passing-oriented offense. Lamar Jackson is comfortable and likes this new aggressive approach. He's completing a career-best 69.9 percent of his throws despite Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman dropping way too many balls. Those two are too good to keep doing that. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
This is a lot of points to lay in a division matchup for the Chiefs. Aside from walloping the Bears, the Chiefs haven't looked that sharp offensively. Discount that Bears game and the Chiefs are averaging 21.7 points in their four other games. |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
Pure and simple, wrong team favored. And that's figuring Davante Adams is going to play for the Raiders against his former team.
The Raiders won't even have much of a home field advantage as the Packers travel well. There will be plenty of cheeseheads at Allegiant Stadium. Jordan Love should have his major weapons back. Green Bay also is expected to have its entire starting offensive line on the field with the exception of left tackle David Bakhtiari. Love is set to shine facing a Raiders defense that gives up a 108.2 passer rating and has multiple injuries in their secondary. Las Vegas has some star power with Adams, Josh Jacobs and Maxx Crosby, a top-five pass rusher. But the Raiders' supplemental talent is well below par and they are poorly coached. Some consider Jimmy Garoppolo to be an average NFL quarterback. I find him to be below average. Despite missing last week while in concussion protocol, Garoppolo has thrown six interceptions in three games. The Raiders have lost three in a row. They entered this week with an NFL-worst minus-nine turnover ratio, while also ranking among the worst on third down and in the red zone on both sides of the ball. The Packers are no longer Super Bowl contenders without Aaron Rodgers. But they are a seven-to-nine win team, which puts them a level higher than the Raiders. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 24 m | Show | |
If home field is worth 3 points then the oddsmaker is saying San Francisco is barely better than Dallas. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 16 m | Show | |
Perhaps this is nitpicking because the Eagles are unbeaten after all. But they haven't looked very good at least compared to last season. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
 I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.
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10-08-23 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 37 m | Show | |
I get that the Titans are considered an Under team. But the Colts rank 29th in total defense and struggle against Derrick Henry, who has topped 100 yards rushing against Indy in six of the past seven meetings. The lone time he didn't reach that figure was when he suffered a broken foot. |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers +4.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 14 m | Show | |
It has been seven games since the Ravens beat the Steelers by more than a field goal. Pittsburgh, in fact, has won five of its last six meetings against Baltimore.
The Steelers have their bye next week. They certainly don't want to enter it on a two-game losing streak after an embarrassing, 30-6, road loss to the Texans last Sunday. Baltimore is at its worst laying points - 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when favored. Pittsburgh is at its best as a home underdog - 16-5-3 ATS the last 24 times. The Steelers have covered 64 percent of the time under Mike Tomlin when receiving points at home going 51-28-4 ATS. The 3-1 Ravens are trying to establish themselves early as the team to beat in the AFC North already owning division road victories against the Bengals and Browns. Right now, though, the Ravens aren't that good despite their record. The Ravens beat the Texans opening week at home when C.J. Stroud was making his NFL debut behind a makeshift offensive line. Baltimore then beat the Bengals in Week 2 when Joe Burrow wasn't 100 percent and the Bengals were in a down mode. Then came an upset road loss to the Colts, who were quarterbacked by backup Gardner Minshew. The Ravens then caught a monster break last Sunday when Deshaun Watson was a late scratch forcing the Browns to use untested rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who found out the hard way that regular season is vastly different than preseason. Lamar Jackson is playing well. But the Ravens have been dealing with a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, running back and secondary. The Steelers have a strong history of defending Jackson well. Jackson has never scored a rushing TD against the Steelers and has a 4-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio versus Pittsburgh. T.J. Watt is back to his dominant pass rushing self tied for the NFL lead in sacks with six. I'm fine no matter who is behind center for Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett would be an inspiration after getting knocked out last week with a knee injury, while backup Mitch Trubisky would provide a running threat the Steelers don't have with Pickett. |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
The Bears showed signs of finding their offensive identity this past Sunday in a 31-28 home loss to the Broncos. But their defense remains horrible. It's a prime reason why the Over has cashed in all four of Chicago's games this season. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks -120 v. Giants | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
It comes down to this. The Seahawks are at least a tier better than the Giants. New York isn't very good right now. The Giants are lucky to be 1-2 having led for the grand total of 19 seconds this season. Seattle gets back one of its top defensive players, versatile safety Jamal Adams, while the Giants are likely to be missing two of their three best offensive players with left tackle Andrew Thomas ruled out and Saquon Barkley doubtful with an ankle injury. Since laying an egg against the Rams opening week, the Seahawks have beaten the Lions on the road and Panthers. Seattle scored 37 points in each of those wins. I like the Seahawks' skill position players much better than the Giants especially if Barkley is a no-good. The Giants will have a different offensive line for the fourth time in four weeks. They rank in the bottom-four in points, total yards and passing yards. Daniel Jones has been sacked an average of four times per game. New York is equally bad on defense. The Giants have no takeaways. They rank in the bottom-five in scoring defense and run defense. I expect emerging star Kenneth Walker III to have a big rushing game thus setting up Geno Smith for effective play-action passes. The teams met in Seattle last season. The Seahawks won, 27-13. The Seahawks have a fantastic record in prime-time games under Pete Carroll going 33-14-1 for 70 percent. Seattle won't be holding anything back either being idle this week following this game. |
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10-01-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Jets | 23-20 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
No matter how good of a defense you have, it doesn't matter if your offense can't score. The Jets' offense has generated three TD's in three games with Zach Wilson. That's not going to cut it against many teams. Certainly not against the high-powered defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes deservedly gets all the attention. But quietly the Chiefs' defense has emerged as a very good stop unit. Kansas City is giving up only 13.3 points per game having faced the Lions, Jaguars and Bears. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-fewest points and seventh-fewest yards per game. Kansas City has a dominant pass rusher in Chris Jones. The Jets' offensive line hasn't been very good. But even when given time, Wilson still ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks in passer ratings when afforded decent protection. The Chiefs' attack is potent with a healthy Travis Kelce and he's back healthy. |
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10-01-23 | Patriots v. Cowboys OVER 43 | 3-38 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a low total given how explosive the Cowboys can be with Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb. The key is how many points can New England come in with? Don't be surprised if the Patriots score far more than you think. The Patriots have played two of their three games in bad weather. They produced 382 yards of offense against a strong Eagles defense. New England has missed field goals and had costly turnovers inside Miami territory in its game against the Dolphins. New England has played against the Eagles and Jets already, two of the better defenses in the league. Dallas' defense took a massive hit with its star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffering a season-ending knee injury during practice last week. The Patriots' offensive line is improved with key players back. Ezekiel Elliott showed he still has some juice rushing for 80 yards against the Jets last week, averaging 5.0 yards a carry. The Cowboys surrendered 28 points and 400 yards to the Cardinals this past week. Joshua Dobbs threw for 182 yards on just 21 attempts. James Connor rushed for 98 yards while averaging 7.0 yards a carry. Mac Jones is better than Dobbs and Rhamondre Stevenson is superior to Connor. These teams have an Over history, too. They met two seasons ago and Dallas won, 35-29. While I don't expect 64 points to be scored again, it's not a daunting task for these teams to go Over this number. |
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10-01-23 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 26-9 | Loss | -120 | 92 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting Derek Carr to play. But I make no drop-off from Carr to Jameis Winston. Either of those two is better than Baker Mayfield. The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension. He'll have fresh legs. Tampa Bay just yielded 201 yards rushing to the Eagles this past Monday. Note that game was played on Monday so the Buccaneers are traveling on a short week. Tampa Bay still has good defenders. But New Orleans has a very good defense. The Saints have held their last six opponents to an average of 13.3 points a game. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in their last 11 games. The Buccaneers rank 25th in total yards, 27th in rushing and third-from-last in red zone touchdown percentage. |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -145 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 73 h 14 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are on top of the world after their 70-20 burial of the Broncos. Miami deserves all the plaudits. Lost in the glare of the Dolphins' pin-ball attack, though, are the Bills. After losing in overtime to the fired-up Jets opening Monday night, Buffalo has gotten untracked rolling past the Raiders and Commanders by the combined score of 75-13. The Bills have defeated Miami seven straight times at home. Buffalo is 6-1 in its last seven home games, including defeating the Dolphins twice during this span. The Dolphins appear improved. But the Bills still have the better quarterback with Josh Allen and the superior defense. Miami should get back Jaylen Waddle, however, offensive left tackle Terron Armstead is likely to be out again. The Bills have the pass rushers to take advantage of that. I see this as a buy-low opportunity on the Bills because the Dolphins are off such a mind-boggling performance against an 0-3 team. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 40.5 | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 36 m | Show | |
Yes, Jim Schwartz has made a difference as the Browns' new defensive coordinator. Cleveland's defense has improved. But I'm not buying its dominant numbers of giving up just 10.7 points a game and 163.7 yards, both of which are the best in the NFL. Consider just who the Browns have played. They met the Bengals and a rusty Joe Burrow opening week. They then faced a Steelers offense going through growing pains with second-year QB Kenny Pickett and maybe the league's worst offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. After that it was the impotent Titans, who have the worst offensive line in the NFL coupled with over-the-hill skill position players. Now the Browns draw Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has looked good running again. The Ravens' offensive line is healthy again for the first time in two weeks with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum back practicing. Gus Edwards also is expected to play, giving Baltimore a legitimate power runner. Jackson has had three games to learn the Ravens' new emphasis on downfield passing. He has the best receivers he's ever had. Deshaun Watson is off his finest game since joining the Browns, completing 81.8 percent of his passes for 289 yards and two TD's against the Titans last week. He should have had a third TD throw, but the referee made a mistake blowing his whistle thinking Amari Cooper had stepped out of bounds after a catch when Cooper had not. Like Jackson, Watson has the best receivers he's ever had in his career. The totals bar is set low here. It's not asking too much for each of these teams to produce 20 points. |
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10-01-23 | Broncos -3 v. Bears | Top | 31-28 | Push | 0 | 122 h 26 m | Show |
How wretched are the Bears? The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them. And Denver is the right side. Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears. |
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