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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -122 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
The Eagles certainly looked sharp in preseason steamrolling the Colts, Ravens and Packers. Now looking good during preseason doesn't necessarily equate to an opening week win, but in the Eagles' case it's not a fluke. Philadelphia has achieved double-digit victories during each of Chip Kelly's first two years. Now, in Year 3 of Kelly's super high octane offense, the Eagles look the best they ever had under Kelly. The Eagles' defensive front seven has been upgraded, the secondary is fortified with quality depth at the nickel and dime spots and Sam Bradford is the most talented quarterback Kelly has had at Philadelphia. The Eagles also have the finest running back trio of any team led by defending rushing champion DeMarco Murray. The Eagles are ready to state their Super Bowl case with an offense that has yet to be stopped. The Falcons don't have nearly the defense to slow down Philadelphia. Defensive guru Dan Quinn, formerly the Seahawks defensive coordinator, makes his head coaching debut for Atlanta. Quinn is trying to overhaul the worst defense in the league from a year ago, a defense that recorded only 22 sacks. Quinn is implementing a 4-3 scheme. Atlanta's defense, at best, is a work in progress right now. Quinn brings excellent credentials. However, this is way too tough of a test and way too early for the Falcons to show the necessary major defensive steps to stop the Eagles' already-in-sync powerhouse offense that is better with the highly accurate Bradford. The Falcons are going to need to trade points with the Eagles, matching them score for score. I don't see Atlanta being able to keep up. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones get a lot of media attention. They are outstanding. I rate Jones as the best wide receiver in the NFC. But the Falcons have a very suspect offensive line that also is learning a new system and Atlanta also lacks a polished ground attack. The Eagles' first three running backs - Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles - are all better than anything the Falcons have at running back. The Eagles not only hold edges offensively and defensively, but on special teams, too. Atlanta's home field isn't nearly enough to compensate for any of that. The spread is cheap here. Lay it. |
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09-13-15 | NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 51 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 101 h 11 m | Show | |
This series usually is about offense. The under has failed to cash the past five times. Look for that streak to continue as the Giants are dealing with multiple injuries on defense - especially at safety - and have not been able to develop and get used to their new defensive system. |
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09-13-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos UNDER 49.5 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 308 h 29 m | Show | |
These teams met opening week at Denver two years ago and the Broncos won in a shootout, 49-27. That's not going to happen here.
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09-13-15 | Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Oakland Raiders | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 196 h 22 m | Show | |
There can be a tendency to overthink sometimes especially in the NFL. This game is an example of this. |
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09-13-15 | Miami Dolphins v. Washington Redskins UNDER 43.5 | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 193 h 49 m | Show | |
Redskins coach Jay Gruden is going against the NFL grain and turning Washington into a ground-and-pound team. The Redskins' offensive line is geared toward the run. The Redskins are going to rush the ball far more than imagined, which is great for the under. |
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09-13-15 | Green Bay Packers -6.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 193 h 56 m | Show |
The Packers have Jay Cutler's number. Cutler has lost his last seven starts against Green Bay, which has dominated at Solder Field winning 18 of the last 22 times there. The Packers have intercepted Cutler 19 times in 10 games. Cutler has a strong arm and is not without talent, but he's a head case and the Packers are inside his head. |
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09-10-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots -6.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 54 m | Show |
When these two teams last met two years ago at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots buried the Steelers, 55-31. That was the most points the Steelers allowed in their 81-year history. Tom Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns helping the Patriots pile up a staggering 610 yards. Now it's two years later. And guess what? Pittsburgh's defense is far more inexperienced and worse than what it was in 2013. Troy Polamalu and Dick LeBeau are gone, too. The Patriots received a huge mental lift with Brady's suspension overturned, while the Steelers experienced a huge mental jolt after not expecting Brady to see the field. It has been a rough off-season and preseason for Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey with a broken leg. Star running back Le'Veon Bell is suspended. So is promising wide receiver Martavis Bryant. The Steelers' defense has looked terrible giving massive indications they are going to struggle. This is the 14th opening Thursday kickoff game. The home team has won 11 of the first 13. The Steelers have only covered one of their last nine September games. |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 229 h 48 m | Show |
New England has a strong offense and a decent-to-good defense. Seattle has the best defense I've seen since the 1985-86 Bears and a mediocre offense with the exception of a top-four running back, Marshawn Lynch, and a big-play quarterback, Russell Wilson, who rates with Aaron Rodgers (when healthy) and Andrew Luck as the only quarterbacks who can beat you three ways - with their arm, brain and feet. |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 105 | 151 h 56 m | Show |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 39 m | Show |
Seattle has the NFL's best defense in nearly 30 years. There is no way the Packers can dent it with Aaron Rodgers on one leg and playing at CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks are 25-2 SU, 19-7-1 ATS the past three years. |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -105 | 154 h 51 m | Show |
The Broncos rate a level higher than the Colts. Throw in a rested, home-field advantage and I see Denver winning this game by double-digits. |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
The weather is going to be cold, but of far more importance to this total going under is the health of each team's quarterback, method of attack and underrated defenses. |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I give Dallas plenty of credit. But I'm not sold on them. They lack talent on defense and are in a position they haven't been in during their present regime - being asked to cover a touchdown in the playoffs with all the pressure and Super Bowl hype surrounding them. It's rare to get this many points with a defense as good as Detroit and with as many good skill position players it has. The key for Dallas is DeMarco Murray. His running sets up Tony Romo and keeps the Cowboys' vulnerable defense off the field. Murray led the NFL in rushing, but he is playing with a surgically repaired hand and had a full workload during the regular season. The Cowboys are playing on short rest this week. The Lions have the No. 1 run defense giving up less than 70 yards on the ground. Detroit also ranks No. 2 in total defense. Only two teams gave up fewer than the 17.6 points the Lions give up per game. The Lions' secondary is vastly improved. Matthew Stafford didn't have an outstanding season, but he's a far above average quarterback and has one of the best wide receiving tandems in the NFL with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Johnson is healthy again making him arguably the best wide receiver in the league. When the teams met last year, Johnson burned the Cowboys for 14 catches for 329 yards operating against the same cornerbacks Dallas has now. Detroit won that game. Reggie Bush gives Stafford an edge runner and dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
OK, factor in three points for home field advantage for Pittsburgh. Le'Veon Bell isn't going to play. Now does that make these teams even? I say no. The points are worth laying because the Steelers are in much better current form and have the superior quarterback. Baltimore's offense is in a slump, its offensive line is banged-up and its defensive backfield highly vulnerable due to injuries that have wiped out five cornerbacks. Since beating Pittsburgh at home in Week 2, the Ravens have yet to defeat a foe with a winning record going 0-5. Ben Roethlisberger is having his finest season. The Steelers average 27.2 points, 411.1 yards and 301.6 yards passing per game. The Ravens can't match that especially on the road where they have a history of playing much worse. Roethlisberger lit them up six touchdown passes in a 43-23 win in early November at Heinz Field. Even without Bell, Roethlisberger has enough weapons to take advantage of the Ravens' battered, vulnerable secondary. Note, too, that Bell was averaging just 2.7 yards per rush in his last three games worn down by 373 touches. The Steelers have three running backs with fresh legs who will be made to look good by the Ravens' safeties committing to helping out in the passing game rather than moving up in the box. Joe Flacco has had one good quarter in his last three games. He needs a good ground attack to be effective. That's not likely to happen. The Steelers have gotten healthier on defense while the Ravens will be without left tackle Eugene Monroe. Baltimore's only decent running back, Justin Forsett, is worn down after a career-high 235 carries. He had a combined 115 rushing attempts the past three seasons. Forsett hasn't broken the 72-yard rushing mark in three of the past four weeks. Pittsburgh has held nine of its last 10 foes to fewer than 100 yards on the ground. |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +4 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 58 h 26 m | Show |
This is my NFC Game of the Year and here is why: The Panthers are playing their best ball down the stretch inspired by Cam Newton, who is back running and not just sitting in the pocket, and getting much improved play from both their offensive and defensive lines. Their secondary also has gotten faster with a switch to younger defensive backs. Carolina is giving up an average of 13.3 points during its last three games in beating the Saints, Buccaneers and Browns. Carolina also has a strong history under Ron Rivera in December going 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS. New England is the only team with more December victories during this span. The Falcons aren't nearly good enough to lay this many points in a winner-take-all division setting. They can't rush the passer and their secondary took a hit last week with the loss of safety William Moore. The Panthers can key on Matt Ryan, who is playing behind a makeshift offensive line and lacking a ground attack made worse with Steven Jackson not likely to play. |
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12-28-14 | NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins -5.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -115 | 93 h 28 m | Show | |
The Jets played their Super Bowl for Rex Ryan last Sunday and nearly upset the Patriots. I don't see New York having the motivation in this meaningless matchup to put forth a second consecutive strong effort especially visiting sunny South Florida. Without a strong game, the Jets can't stay close on the scoreboard. Geno Smith is just a killer for the Jets with his many mistakes and turnovers. Smith isn't going to have Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and probably is going to be missing Percy Harvin, too. The Dolphins have a strong defense. They came very close to making the playoffs. Miami is 8-7. If not for late blown leads against three playoff teams - Packers, Lions and Broncos - Miami would be sitting at 11-4 and this line would be much higher. Ryan Tannehill is having his strongest season. The Jets give up more than 25 points a game with a battered, overmatched secondary. There's a class difference here. The Dolphins are unified with Joe Philbin returning as head coach, being at home and catching the Jets at an opportune time. (Editor's note: Long-time pro Stephen Nover is heating up as he goes for his 19th winning NFL season in the last 21 years. Stephen is 7-1 the past two weeks on his NFL premium and free plays and has his NFC Game of the Year going Sunday.) |
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12-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. NY Giants | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
The Eagles are flawed, but they still are the better team here. The key is will they play hard? Knowing Chip Kelly the Eagles will. Kelly is taking this game serious. He could have given Matt Barkley a chance, but he won't. |
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12-28-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +6 | 44-17 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
Dallas doesn't need this game and figures to be resting banged-up Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray for much of the game. Without those two Dallas can't play ball control and protect their vulnerable defense, which has a talent deficiency. The Redskins have the skill position talent at receiver and running back to take advantage. Robert Griffin III and the rest of the Redskins received a huge jolt of confidence with last week's upset win against the Eagles. The Redskins will be motivated for this long-standing division rivalry matchup. They have covered the past four years hosting Dallas. Jobs are at stake for many of the Redskins. They should be hard here while the Cowboys are in a letdown spot having ended their four-year playoff drought by burying the Colts last week. |
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12-28-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 v. Houston Texans | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
Houston isn't strong enough to lay double-digits with fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum, who is 1-8 as a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Jaguars have shown a respectable defense and a no-quit attitude under defensive-minded Gus Bradley. Only four teams have more sacks than Jacksonville. Sure Houston is still alive for a playoff spot - albeit a long shot - but Jacksonville also has motivation. This is a division rivalry made more intense by many of the Jacksonville players close ties to Texas. The Jaguars have revenge and extra preparation and rest time having played last Thursday. They have covered in three of the last four meetings with the Texans. The Jaguars are extremely young on offense starting six rookies, including quarterback Blake Bortles. But these young players have some experience now and fresher legs. Bortles has cut back on his dreadful number of turnovers getting picked off just twice in the last four games on 140 attempts with one coming on a desperate fourth down pass against Baltimore. |
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12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 136 h 15 m | Show | |
Bruce Arians has done a masterful job coaching the Cardinals up this season, but he's drawing dead here because of his quarterback situation. Seattle has gotten healthy on defense. The result is the Seahawks' dominant defense of last season is back as good as ever. The Cardinals can't compete against it down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, who doesn't have the ability. Since Carson Palmer went down, the Cardinals have only managed four touchdowns in five games. They lack a ground game to take the pressure off Lindley and Larry Fitzgerald hasn't been 100 percent. Arizona would be hard-pressed to put up points against a mediocre defense let alone the top one in the league right now. Seattle has allowed just 27 points during the last four weeks. Seattle is peaking, playing its best ball winning and covering its last four games, including defeating these same Cardinals, 19-3, when Arizona had Drew Stanton at quarterback. Stanton is bad. But Lindley is even worse. Seattle is 18-6-1 ATS versus foes with a winning record. Russell Wilson has the mobility to escape Arizona's pass rush and make big plays with his feet and arm. He's also very good at not turning the ball over. He's accounted for six touchdowns in the last four games with no interceptions. The Seahawks can wear Arizona's defense down running Marshawn Lynch while effectively burning the Cardinals' secondary with play-action passes. |
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12-21-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Oakland Raiders +7 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Oakland has won its last two home games in convincing style against the Chiefs and 49ers. Those teams are at least as good if not better than Buffalo. So the Raiders are capable - when home like they are here. The Bills are a feisty group that must produce an "A" effort such as they did last week in upsetting Green Bay to do well. But this is a brutal spot for Buffalo. The Bills are not a good road team and are traveling cross-country after one of their most satisfying victories of the season. It's the first time this season the Bills are road chalk and they are laying a touchdown with a bad quarterback. Kyle Orton is an over-the-hill game manager who does have the savvy to rely on his defense rather than take chances and attack defenses. He's not the type of quarterback who can cover margins like this, though, especially on the road. The Raiders can keep Buffalo's fierce pass rushers off Derek Carr because they have a talented running back they have underutilized up to this point - Latavius Murray. He's fresh and ready. |
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12-21-14 | NY Giants v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 44 | 37-27 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
The Rams defense has come on in the second half to become arguably the most dominant defense in the NFL. In their last 5 games, the Rams have allowed just 46 points on two touchdown throws with eight interceptions and four forced fumbles. They have recorded 14 sacks in their last three games. The Giants can't run the ball with Rashad Jennings hurting and their makeshift offensive line can't pass block well enough to make Eli Manning effective. The Rams are very limited on offense with journeyman backup Shaun Hill at quarterback and a below average crop of wide receivers. |
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12-21-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Houston Texans +6 | 13-25 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
The Ravens and Joe Flacco aren't strong enough to lay this many points on the road against this quality of an opponent. The Texans can rush the passer with J.J. Watt and run the ball with Arian Foster. Flacco is at his worst on the road and when being pressured. The Ravens are minus suspended run-stuff nose guard Haloti Ngata. They can't commit to stopping the run because their secondary is decimated with injuries and is a major vulnerable area. The line is this high because the Texans are down to fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum. The Texans have weapons, though, with Andre Johnson back from a concussion. It would just be an added plus if DeAndre Hopkins can play. Keenum has experience with the Texans. He also has the multi-talented Foster to rely on. |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +10 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Jimmy Clausen doesn't come close to matching Jay Cutler's talent level, but the Bears are going to play very hard in this division matchup because of the quarterback change. Clausen does have weapons - Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett - and will be coached up by Marc Trestman, whose strength is coaching quarterbacks. Clausen isn't a scared rookie, but a veteran. He had an excellent preseason completing 64.9 percent for 7.6 YPA and two touchdowns. I believe he'll do fine for this particular game at home and with a rare motivated effort from the Bears. The Lions may let down having clinched a playoff berth yesterday following the Eagles' loss to the Redskins and knowing how dysfunctional the Bears have been, a team they destroyed on Thanksgiving by 17 points. Detroit is just 4-16 ATS as road chalk and has covered only five of 16 times on grass. The Lions also have a horrible track record in December covering just three of their past 15 games in that month. |
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12-14-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 50.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 100 h 13 m | Show | |
Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season and Green Bay's offense looked great again on Monday against Atlanta. But that was at home against an extremely weak defense. Now the Packers are traveling on a short week to take on Buffalo, which has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Packers are not familiar with the Bills' defense having last faced them in 2010. They will have one less practice and preparation day, too. The Bills lead the league in sacks with 48. They rank in the top five defensively in total yards, scoring points and passing yards. As good as the Packers are, they are not going to have their way against this strong of a defense on the road. If you discount the Packers' road game against the Bears, Green Bay is averaging 19.4 points in five away matchups. The Packers' defense isn't as bad as they looked on Monday night. Their run defense is much improved, the linebacker play is better with A.J. Hawk playing less and the secondary remains the deepest in football. The Bills are a ball-control, grind-it-out type of team due to the lack of playmaking skills of Kyle Orton. Going by percentage of time on the field, Orton has been sacked more than any other quarterback. Cold weather, snow and wind also could become part of the equation any time you play a game in Buffalo this late in the year. |
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12-14-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 119 h 32 m | Show |
Brian Hoyer has not been playing well, but I can't envision a battle-tested veteran Bengals secondary that has permitted just 14 touchdown passes all year getting beat by untested rookie Johnny Manziel making his first start. It's going to be difficult for the Browns to retain their full concentration this week because of all the publicity Manziel's first start brings. The Browns play hard and their defense is better than their statistics, but they are not in the Bengals' class. Only once all season has Cleveland outgained a foe at home. There is zero chance of defensive-minded Marvin Lewis taking the Browns lightly after Cleveland embarrassed Cincinnati, 24-3, during the Thursday night Week 10 matchup. The Bengals haven't seen Manziel, but they have seen the Browns' offense now. Andy Dalton has been sacked just 16 times. Only Peyton Manning has been sacked fewer times among starting quarterback. Dalton has his full complement of weapons back, including a now healthy A.J. Green, who has 33 receptions and three 100-yard games during his past four games with three touchdowns.  |
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12-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers -8 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 37 m | Show |
If there is one team more dysfunctional than the 49ers it's the Raiders. Oakland doesn't have the talent to keep within single digits of the 49ers and its home field advantage is reduced because of the closeness to San Francisco. The Raiders have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 home contests. The 49ers' offense has been slumping, hurt by Colin Kaepernick's regression in the passing game and the strange play-calling of Greg Roman. But the 49ers still have way too many weapons for the overmatched Oakland defense to keep track of. The 49ers' defense, though, still remains top-rate. The Raiders rank last in points per game, yards and rushing. |
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12-07-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 v. Detroit Lions | 17-34 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
The Buccaneers have been tough on the road covering four of their last five away matchups. They beat Pittsburgh, defeated the Redskins by 20 and took the Saints to overtime.Only once in their last nine games have the Bucs lost by more than 10 points. In six of those games, the Bucs had a chance to win during the final quarter. The key for the Buccaneers is huge defensive improvement as Lovie Smith's Cover 2 schemes - difficult to pick up at first - are assimilated. Since the midway point of the season, the Bucs ranked first in the league in yards per pass allowed and are fifth in sack percentage. Until blasting the defensive-challenged Bears on Thanksgiving, the Lions hadn't broken the 24-point barrier in 10 consecutive games. The Lions are fat and happy right now after destroying the Bears. This is their last non-division regular season game. The Lions have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games when taking on an opponent with a losing road mark. |
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11-30-14 | Denver Broncos -108 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 29-16 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
Peyton Manning versus Alex Smith. That's really it in a nutshell. The Broncos have yet to lose in five games against the Chiefs with Manning at quarterback. Smith is 0-3 against the Broncos during this span. Manning has thrown 18 touchdown passes to wide receivers this season. Smith has yet to connect with a wide receiver for a touchdown. It's just another plus for Denver if star tight end Julius Thomas plays. He has 12 receiving touchdowns. No receiver has scored more touchdowns. Three of the Chiefs' key defensive players are Justin Houston, safety Eric Berry and linebacker Derrick Johnson. Johnson was lost early in the season for the year. Houston hasn't sacked Manning in three games and Berry now is out for the year after being diagnosed with a possible cancerous mass in his chest. Thanks to C.J. Anderson, the Broncos now have a balanced attack. He's averaged 5.6 yards per carry during the last three games giving Denver its best running back play of the season. He also is dangerous out of the backfield. The Chiefs rely almost solely on Jamaal Charles. He's a magnificent runner, but he can't do it alone especially when the Broncos will be keying on him. Denver's offense gets all the attention ranking in the top five in scoring and passing. But its run defense ranks No. 2 holding foes to 75.5 yards on the ground. |
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11-30-14 | New England Patriots v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 58.5 | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
Even with these two great offenses in prime form, everything has to go right for this game to go over this high of a total. Already there are three factors working against this. The first is weather. The temperature will be in the 20s and there will be wind in the 14 mph range with gusts that could reach as high as 21 mph. The second are these defenses aren't as bad as some people think. The Patriots can limit, if not take away, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb because they have outstanding cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Bower. The Vikings were able to limit Nelson and Cobb last week with inferior corners. Aaron Rodgers has never faced Bill Belichick, who remains the best at devising specific game plans both offensively and defensively. Green Bay's defense has improved, too, getting much better safety play. Clay Matthews has moved into a hybrid linebacker spot playing both inside and outside, which has made Green Bay stronger at linebacker, and defensive lineman Letroy Guion is playing much better shoring up the middle of the defense. In their last six games, the Packers have given up only two runs of 20 or more yards. Matthews and Julius Peppers give Green Bay needed versatility. The third key factor is both teams figure to do a lot of running, more than normal. Green Bay has improved its run defense, but it still is far from a strength. Belichick wants to keep Rodgers off the field. He'll try to accomplish that by giving the ball a lot to power runners LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. The Packers respect Tom Brady as much as Belichick respects Rodgers. So Green Bay will pound Eddie Lacy at the Patriots, especially if protecting a lead late in the game. This can kill a four-minute block, which is pivotal in going under this high of a total.
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11-30-14 | New Orleans Saints +5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
The Saints are down this season, but Pittsburgh is not an elite team. Elite teams don't lose to the Buccaneers and Jets. Yes, New Orleans is 1-4 on the road. But three of those four losses were by a combined six points. The last time the Saints were at a cold weather site they beat the Eagles in the playoffs last season. It's not going to be a cold day either in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the 40s. The Steelers are getting reinforced on defense with Troy Polamalu, Ryan Shazier and Ike Taylor likely to return to the lineup. Even with those players, though, the Steelers still are far from having their past dominant defenses. Drew Brees has an underrated running attack with Mark Ingram having a career season. Brees is a top-five quarterback, who will keep the Saints in the game. |
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11-27-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
Yes, it's a high total and it's climbing higher. But I don't see stops in this game. The matchup and setting offer a perfect scenario for a monster scoring game being on a short week and inside a dome environment. The Cowboys' pass defense has gotten worse and their ground attack hasn't been very good allowing the eighth-most rushing touchdowns. Mark Sanchez is more comfortable with each start. The Cowboys have allowed their past five opponents to complete 68.4 percent of their throws for 8.1 yard per attempt and nine touchdowns. The Eagles also have the most dangerous kick and punt returners in the league. The Cowboys are going to do plenty of scoring against the Eagles, too. Since coming back from his back injury two games ago, Tony Romo has been sharp completing 71.7 percent of his throws with a 9.8 YPA and a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Eagles have given up 24 touchdown passes, the third most in the NFL, and also have to contend with the NFL's leading rusher, DeMarco Murray. Prop Bet I like Cowboys tight end Jason Witten to go OVER the total on prop bets for receptions and yardage. I also believe he will score a touchdown, something he has done in three of the last four games. The Eagles are down two linebackers, DeMeco Ryans and Emmanuel Acho. This means extensive playing time for Casey Matthews, who is terrible, and rookie Marcus Smith, who is mainly a pass rusher. Neither of these guys can cover anyone. Titans tight end Delanie Walker caught five passes against the Eagles last week for 155 yards. Just two weeks ago, the Eagles gave up seven receptions and 126 yards to the Panthers' tight ends. Witten isn't the dominant tight end he once was, but he still knows how to get open and remains highly reliable. The Cowboys have thrown at least six passes to Witten in each of the last four games. |
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11-24-14 | NY Jets +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 30 m | Show |
Massive snow in Buffalo have forced this game to be moved to Detroit, causing Buffalo to lose its home field advantage. The Jets are in a much better place now - both offensively and morale-wise - with Michael Vick replacing totally inept Geno Smith. Vick makes the Jets offense respectable now especially with Percy Harvin aboard. The Jets catch a break in that the Bills just lost cornerback Leodis McKelvin for the season. The Jets outgained the Bills when they met in Week 8, but couldn't overcome Smith's quick three interceptions. The Jets are off a bye and have revenge. They aren't going to the playoffs so this division rivalry matchup in a revenge spot is close to their Super Bowl game. Buffalo lost its playoff hope in a span of five days last week with losses to the Chiefs and Dolphins. The Bills haven't scored in their last 21 possessions and rank last in red zone touchdown efficiency. They have failed to score more than 17 points in six of their past eight games. Kyle Orton is far less of a playmaker than Orton. The Jets rank No. 4 in run defense. The Jets' strength is their defensive front seven. |
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11-23-14 | Washington Redskins v. San Francisco 49ers -9 | 13-17 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Washington has lost 15 of its last 18 games. The Redskins are down - and they are not getting up. The Redskins' offense is a mess because Robert Griffith III has just become a glorified checkdown machine unable to fully come back from devastating injuries and in the wrong offensive system. The 49ers still have an upper-tier defense and their pass rush has become far more dangerous with the return of Aldon Smith. The 49ers are going to generate plenty of points versus a Washington defense that allows nearly 26 points a game and is minus its best pass rusher, Brian Orakpo, and best cornerback, DeAngelo Hall. This also is a terrible spot for the Redskins traveling cross-country following a horrendous 20-point home loss to Tampa Bay. |
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11-23-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Philadelphia Eagles -11 | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
Not only do the Eagles have the high-powered, quick-tempo offense to blow out the Titans, but they are in a great spot to do it. The Eagles are off an embarrassing road loss to Green Bay. The Titans are off an emotional and well-played game and effort this past Monday at home where they nearly upset the Steelers. Now the Titans have to travel to a very hostile environment on a short week with a young team in an all-out rebuilding stage. I don't see them being able to sustain that type of effort, which is more than needed against this strong of an opponent. The Titans have the second-worst run defense in the league and their offense isn't set up to play from behind. Rookie quarterback Zack Mettenberger has no mobility. The Eagles have 33 sacks and will be applying plenty of heat. The Titans need to stay on the ground to set up Mettenberger, but their defense is going to have problems with the Eagles' fast pace that keeps opponents from substituting. The Eagles have forced at least one turnover in 21 of their last 22 games. They also have the best special teams in the NFL. The Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games. They have won only once during their past nine games. |
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11-23-14 | Cincinnati Bengals +2 v. Houston Texans | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
Cincinnati isn't as intimidating on the road, but the Bengals still are a clear level about Houston especially with Arian Foster not looking like he's going to play. The Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. This is Ryan Mallett's first home start. He's not going to win games on his own and he lacks mobility. The Bengals can generate pressure and have a veteran defense that has been reinforced with some key players back from injury. Houston does not have an explosive offense. The Texans have yet to throw for 300 yards in a game. Foster is their key, but he's grounded by hamstring, groin and knee problems. The Bengals are strong on pass defense. Andy Dalton is helped by a return to health of A.J. Green, a top-five receiver. The Texans have no one who can handle him. Jeremy Hill has provided solid ground work rushing for 361 yards the last three games, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. So Dalton isn't forced to carry the load. |
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11-23-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 47.5 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
First off this game is in a dome, which is going to help both offenses especially the Falcons. This is Atlanta's first home game in five weeks. The Falcons' offense is far more dangerous when playing inside Georgia Dome. The Browns normally would have problems defending all of Atlanta's receiving weapons, but things are made a lot worse for Cleveland with its cluster injury situation. Out are defensive lineman Phil Taylor and linebackers Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard. The Browns' offense gets to go against a weak Atlanta defense that ranks last in total yards and passing yards. Cleveland's passing attack gets a huge boost with the return of Josh Gordon, who led the NFL in receiving yards last year. His presence must be accounted for and disrupts and causes adjustments for the Falcons. The Falcons' defense has been terrible - and that's even getting lucky having missed quarterbacks ranked in the top 20 in seven of their 10 games. Instead the Falcons have been fortunate to face the inept offenses of the Buccaneers twice, Panthers and Vikings. They drew the Lions in London when Detroit was minus Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush. |
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11-17-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The Titans get a rare home chance on the national stage tonight, but they are not good enough to keep this matchup close. The Steelers are off an embarrassing flat spot against the Jets. Don't look for the Steelers to be down a second straight week. Ben Roethlisberger has been red-hot and he should get good infantry support for the first time in three games as the Titans rank 29th versus the run. Ken Whisenhunt has made no bones about the Titans being in a rebuilding year. He's switched to sixth-round rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The Steelers have some defensive injuries, but Mettenberger isn't ready yet to be an effective NFL starting quarterback. He's hurt by not having a lick of mobility and holding the ball too long. Mettenberger isn't likely to have injured tight end and security blanket Delanie Walker, who leads the Titans in receiving yards and touchdowns. Under wily defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steelers are 18-2 facing rookie quarterbacks. The Titans have a terrible track record covering just two of their last 14 games. They have lost eight of their last 10 home games and are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 home matchups. |
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11-16-14 | Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 20-24 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 25 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are similar to the Seahawks in that they are run-oriented and play good defense. They just aren't as good as Seattle and Alex Smith isn't nearly as good as Russell Wilson. The Seahawks' offense has picked up with the return to health of left tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger. It wasn't a fluke the Seahawks rushed for 350 yards against the Giants last week with those two stud offensive linemen back in the lineup. The Seahawks run the ball well and stop the run. They lead the league in yards per carry and are tied for first in giving up the fewest yards per rush. The Chiefs rank 30th in giving up yards per run. The strength of their defense is edge pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Because of Wilson, the Chiefs can't stack the line either keying just on Marshawn Lynch. Seattle can stack the box against Jamaal Charles, though, because the Chiefs have no downfield passing game. Alex Smith has the lowest yards per throw of any quarterback during the past five years. He has yet to connect with a wide receiver for a touchdown this season. The Chiefs are not well rounded enough to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions. |
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11-16-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -2.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Now that the line has come down under a field goal I'm going to get involved with the Bears. There is tremendous urgency for Chicago in this matchup. The Bears' season is at stake and possibly the future of Marc Trestman and Jay Cutler remaining in Chicago. I expect the Bears to play with a great deal of urgency and passion after being embarrassed in their last two games. Those blowout losses, though, came to the Packers and Patriots. The Vikings' offense is light years behind those elite offenses. Minnesota's defense has improved under defensive guru Mike Zimmer. But the Vikings still are vulnerable in the secondary and their offense doesn't scare anyone with rookie Teddy Bridgewater a work in progress. Expect a big game from Jared Allen, an ex-Viking who will be going against his former practice partner tackle Matt Kalil. Cutler and the Bears are better than they have shown. Cutler has the weapons to put up a lot of points against Minnesota. The Vikings haven't won at Soldier Field in seven years. |
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11-16-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Washington Redskins OVER 45.5 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
What we have here is just two horrible defenses facing two offenses that should start playing a lot better. The Buccaneers rank 31st in points allowed giving up 30.2 per game. They also are 31st in pass defense and 29th in yards surrendered per game. Washington was idle last week. That's huge because it gives Robert Griffin III more time to heal and get in sync with Jay Gruden's offense. Look for the Redskins to add a few wrinkles, too, with the extra preparation time. Griffin has plenty of weapons. He has a solid running back in Alfred Morris, two good pass catching tight ends and excellent wideouts DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, who are among the best at gaining yards after the catch. Tampa Bay has given up 19 touchdown passes. The Buccaneers have gone back to veteran Josh McCown at quarterback. Their running attack is better without Doug Martin. Mike Evans has emerged as perhaps the best rookie wide receiver in the NFL. Vincent Jackson still is good. The Bucs' offensive line is beginning to improve, too. The Redskins rank 23rd in scoring defense allowing 25.4 points per game. They are without their best pass rusher, Brian Orapko, and best cover back, DeAngelo Hall. |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
OK, the Panthers aren't the defensive team they were a year ago. But they aren't a touchdown worse than the Eagles especially with Philadelphia losing its leader on defense, linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Chip Kelly's fast-break offense gets the publicity. This doesn't tell the whole picture, though. The Eagles' defense wasn't very good even with Ryans giving up 400 or more yards in four of their last six games. The Eagles also don't take care of the ball very well either committing 21 turnovers. They are down to second-string quarterback Mark Sanchez, who never has shown a tendency to be careful with the ball either. This is Sanchez's first start in two years so there could be some rust. He has just five more touchdowns than interceptions in his career. Carolina's offense should pick up against this opponent especially getting back some of their injured starting offensive linemen. Carolina is expected to have back offensive linemen Byron Bell, Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner. The Panthers are on extra rest having played 11 days ago. They are eager to atone for their disappointing season with a strong performance on the national stage. They also have been given second life in the weak NFC South with the Saints getting upset at home this past Sunday by the 49ers. The Eagles have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when hosting an opponent with a losing road record. |
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11-09-14 | Denver Broncos -11 v. Oakland Raiders | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 80 h 42 m | Show | |
I can't see the Raiders staying within two touchdowns of Denver. The Broncos are averaging 30.6 points per game and are No. 2 in the NFL in passing. Peyton Manning is having another monster season on pace to throw for 5,144 yards and 44 touchdowns. Rookie Derek Carr, devoid of weapons and saddled with the worst ground attack by far in the NFL, has no chance of keeping pace. The Raiders rank last in total yards and second-to-last in points per game. Only twice have the Raiders scored more than 14 points in a game. Oakland's defense has recorded just eight sacks and gives up more than 26 points per game. The prideful Broncos are in angry mood after an embarrassing road loss to the Patriots this past Sunday. The Raiders could have the most overrated home field in the NFL. The Raiders have had just one winning ATS season at home since 2004. They haven't had a winning ATS mark as a home 'dog since 2009. The Broncos have beaten the Raiders in Oakland the past three seasons by an average of 17.6 points. |
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11-09-14 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders OVER 49.5 | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 22 m | Show | |
Peyton Manning and his high-powered offense can generate seven touchdowns by themselves against a slow, over-the-hill Oakland secondary. The Raiders lack the pass rush to bother Manning. Manning is having another huge year on pace to throw for 5,144 yards and 44 touchdowns. He'll be especially fired-up after the Broncos took a pounding last week at the Patriots. The Raiders' passing attack is picking up under rookie Derek Carr. The Raiders can't run the ball and will be playing from behind so there should be lots of passing on their end. Carr has a big arm and is a vertical passer. This can result in big plays - and pick-six's. |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets OVER 46 | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 16 m | Show | |
The final score didn't reflect it, but New York's offense showed some life last week against Kansas City with Michael Vick a definite upgrade on Geno Smith. Vick and newcomer Percy Harvin had some chemistry and Chris Johnson had his finest game in a long time. The Jets' offense is much better with Vick and it can take advantage of a mediocre Steelers defense that is down Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Ryan Shazier. The Steelers and red-hot Ben Roethlisberger certainly will take advantage of New York's porous secondary. Roethlisberger has thrown 14 touchdown passes in his last three games. The Steelers are averaging 41.3 points per game in their last three games. |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 16 m | Show |
The Lions have the league's top defense, were idle last week and their offense will get heavily fortified with the expected return of Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and some of their banged-up tight ends. Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback when he has Johnson, who has missed the past three games and is anxious to have his usual big impact. A big key, though, with backing the Lions besides their much improved defense is their new coaching staff headed by Jim Caldwell. The Lions are actually well coached for the first time in years. Caldwell has established discipline and a reduction on penalties and stupid decisions. The Dolphins have a solid defense, too, but their offense can't match the Lions at the skill positions. Lamar Miller is Miami's best running back and he has a shoulder injury. Miller is just an average runner, but he's much better than what the Dolphins have behind him. The Lions rank first in the NFL in fewest yards per game and in scoring defense holding opponents to less than 16 points a game. This is the Dolphins' only dome game and stiffest road challenge. Miami's other road games have been at Buffalo, Oakland in London, at Chicago and Jacksonville. The Bills are 1-3 ATS at home with their lone cover coming in a 29-10 win against the Dolphins. The Raiders have yet to win a game, while the Bears and Jaguars are a combined 1-6 at home. |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 3 m | Show |
Cleveland's 5-3 record looks fancy on the surface, but the Browns aren't good enough to keep within a touchdown against a superior opponent in this setting. The Browns last three games have come against the three worst teams in the NFL - Jaguars, Raiders and Buccaneers. Cleveland lost to the Jaguars by 18 points and didn't have an easy time with either the Raiders or Buccaneers nearly losing to one-win Tampa Bay last week. This is the Browns' first national TV game of the season. It comes on a short week on the road against probably the best team in the AFC North. The Browns have lost 17 consecutive division road games having last beaten an AFC North club away from home in 2008. The Bengals are 13-0-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Paul Brown Stadium. They have covered 82 percent of their past 18 home games. Brian Hoyer needs an effective ground attack to be effective. The Browns haven't had that in their last three games since losing star center Alex Mack. Cleveland has averaged just 52.6 yards rushing during this time span. The Browns also are going to be missing their best receiving threat, tight end Jordan Cameron. The Bengals have their best playmaker back in A.J. Green. He makes Andy Dalton much better. Even if Giovani Bernad can't play, the Bengals still have power back Jeremy Hill to exploit the Browns' 31st rush defense. |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants OVER 50 | Top | 40-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The weather is going to be fine and so should these two offenses. The Colts finally turned Andrew Luck loose this season and he's responded by putting up the most passing yards and second-most touchdown throws in the NFL. The Giants have a decent secondary, but not enough to cover all of Luck's weapons, which are expected to increase tonight with Reggie Wayne back to health. The Giants entered this week yielding the sixth-most years per game at 384.4 per game, including 262.4 through the air. New York's run defense took a hit with the departure of middle linebacker Jon Beason for the season. The Giants are looking to get more aggressive on offense now that their offensive line and Eli Manning are playing better. The Colts were torched for 522 yards and six touchdowns through the air in their last game by Ben Roethlisberger. The over has cashed in each of the Colts' last five road games. |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +2 | 23-43 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
The Steelers' balanced offense is rolling averaging 40.5 points in their last two games. Ben Roethlisberger has never been hotter. Martavis Bryant has stepped up to give the Steelers a tall wide receiving option to go with Antonio Brown. Baltimore is without its top defensive back, cornerback Jimmy Smith. That leaves the Ravens without a strong cover person to handle Brown, who is an absolute game-changer with 60 receptions for 852 yards and seven touchdowns. The Ravens' defense is far less intimidating when playing on the road. Baltimore has covered just one of its last five away contests and is 1-6-1 ATS during its last eight games versus AFC foes. Pittsburgh has covered seven of its last 10 home games and has revenge for am embarrassing 26-6 loss to the Ravens in Week 2. The Steelers have changed up a lot of things since that defeat and are in a much better place now. The Steelers' defense has been reinforced with the return of nose tackle Steve McLendon and good-looking rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier. |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 47 | Top | 23-43 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
These two rivals usually play defensive-minded games, but things are different this time around. Pittsburgh's defense is down ranking 16th in yards allowed, giving up more than six yards per play and recording only 12 sacks. The Ravens' defense is far less intimidating on the road and will be minus cornerback Jimmy Smith, their best player in their secondary. It's a bad time for the Ravens to be without Smith as Ben Roethlisberger is the hottest he has ever been. Roethlisberger has found a tall target, too, in Martavis Bryant to go with Antonio Brown on the flanks. Pittsburgh has put up 81 points in its last two games. The Ravens are going to score big, too. Baltimore running backs Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce gashed the Steelers for 152 yards on 30 carries - a 5.0 yard per carry - in the first meeting won by Baltimore, 26-6, in Week 2. The Steelers give up 4.6 yards per rush and do their worst against zone-running scheme teams like Baltimore. Joe Flacco has a big arm and can take advantage of a vulnerable Steelers secondary that has allowed the second-most 20-yard plus plays in the NFL. |
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11-02-14 | St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers -9.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 41 m | Show |
The 49ers are rested and ready to pummel the Rams, a team they beat by two touchdowns just three weeks ago despite playing far from their "A" game. The Rams are decimated by injuries. They were missing their two starting cornerbacks this past Sunday against the Chiefs. They had to use a sixth-round rookie and an undrafted rookie. The 49ers can take advantage with their deep crop of veteran wide receivers. Then against the Chiefs, the Rams lost their leading receiver, Brian Quick, and three starting offensive linemen, including left tackle Jake Long. Austin Davis is struggling as the league studies more film on him. He is playing behind a makeshift offensive line with below average wide receivers and a disappointing ground attack. The Rams stole a game against the Seahawks two weeks ago by coming up with trick plays on special teams. That's not going to work against fiery Jim Harbaugh and his well-coached, veteran 49ers team. |
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11-02-14 | Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Houston Texans | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm not a fan of the Texans. They have been outgained by an average of nearly 30 yards per game and have played a weak schedule. Their victories have come against the Redskins opening week with a rusty Robert Griffin III at quarterback, Raiders, Bills with E.J. Manuel at quarterback and Titans with rookie Zach Mettenberger making his first pro start. Aside from Arian Foster, J.J. Watt and a declining Andre Johnson the Texans really don't have much. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and heavily turnover prone. He's committed eight turnovers in his last six games. The Eagles represent a step up for the Texans. The Eagles' offensive line is getting healthier and their ground game has picked up with LeSean McCoy rushing for 232 yards in his last two games. Nick Foles isn't nearly as good as his 2013 statistics, but he's better than he's shown lately. His game will pick up since the Eagles' offensive line is getting back to full strength. It has been 21 games since the Eagles last lost two in a row. Philadelphia's defense is improving, helped by the return of linebacker Mychal Kendricks. The Eagles also hold a special teams edge. They have seven defensive/special teams touchdowns while their opposition has yet to put up a defensive or special teams score. The Eagles won't lack for motivation either in this non-conference matchup with eight former Texans on their roster, including linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin. |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers +3 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 23-44 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
All streaks must come to an end. I see the Packers ending New Orleans' 19-game home winning streak under Sean Payton and 13-game home winning streak on national TV in this prime time Sunday Night matchup. I have no doubts that Payton will have the Saints fired-up. But New Orleans isn't as good, nor playing nearly as well as Green Bay. The Packers have taken their game up a notch behind the flawless play of Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is averaging 36.3 and 352.5 yards per game during the last four weeks - all victories. The Saints defense has looked far more like their record-worst defense of two years ago than last year. Their secondary is weak especially without injured Jarius Byrd and prey to Rodgers, who has thrown 17 touchdown passes with no interceptions his last six games. The Saints rank 28th in points allowed and pass defense. Rodgers has a multitude of weapons with the emergence of rookie Davon Adams joining Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb plus a solid ground attack to keep things balanced. New Orleans is 2-4 and its record isn't a fluke. The Saints' only two victories were lackluster home wins at home against the Vikings, where rookie Teddy Bridgewater was making his first start, and versus the Buccaneers in overtime. Those two teams are a combined 3-10. Green Bay's defense isn't as good as it's offense and cornerback Sam Shields is out. But the Packers may have the most depth of any secondary in the NFL. Drew Brees is having a down year by his lofty standards. The Saints have a cluster injury problem at running back, their wide receivers aren't as good as Green Bay's and star tight end Jimmy Graham has been reduced to decoy status because of a shoulder injury. Brees also is without injured center Jonathan Goodwin. |
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10-26-14 | Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Carolina Panthers | 13-9 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 19 m | Show | |
There is nothing wrong with Seattle's offense. In fact, it's better than it was last year as Russell Wilson is improved and his offensive line is healthy. The Panthers have fallen apart on defense due to the suspension of Greg Hardy and a horrendous secondary that was put together on the cheap. Carolina has given up 38, 30, 24, 37 and 38 points in its last five games. I see Seattle's defense and special teams playing better after an embarrassing loss to the Rams last week. The Panthers have a cluster injury problem at running back and are missing both of their starting guards. The Seahawks get a lot of publicity for their great home record, but they have also covered nine of their last 13 on the road/neutral site games. |
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10-26-14 | Houston Texans -2.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 78 h 22 m | Show |
The Titans have formally given up on their season with word coming out that Ken Whisenhunt is going to start rookie sixth-round pick Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. Mettenberger isn't ready and he lacks the mobility to cover up his mistakes. His life is going to be made miserable by J.J. Watt and possibly Jadeveon Clowney, who is tentatively due back this week. The Titans rank 29th in points scored and 27th in total yards. Mettenberger doesn't have a lot of weapons to help him. The Titans have lost a number of key defensive players. They are giving up 24.6 points per game and that number could rise. This is a matchup that Ryan Fitzpatrick can manage relying on stud running back Arian Foster, who already has five 100-yard rushing games. Tennessee is 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 home games. |
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10-26-14 | Detroit Lions -3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 22-21 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 41 m | Show | |
Away from Georgia Dome, the Falcons have dropped 11 of their last 12, going 3-9 ATS. Atlanta has lost its last seven away games by double-digits. Don't look for the Falcons to correct their problems with this game in London. Matt Ryan has no time to throw. His offensive line is decimated. The Falcons will be going through their fifth different starting offensive line with this matchup after losing their starting center, Peter Konz, for the season. Ryan doesn't have a reliable ground game to fall back on either. Steven Jackson is Atlanta's lead runner and he's well past his prime. The Lions' defense has become dominant particularly their front four. Detroit has held five of its seven opponents to 17 points or less while ranking first or second in total defense, run defense and scoring defense. The Falcons' defense is far weaker ranking 30th in yards given up and points allowed. The statistics don't lie. The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Their earlier home victories against New Orleans and Tampa Bay don't look so good now given the struggles those two teams are having. Even if Calvin Johnson doesn't play, the Lions have enough weapons with Matthew Stafford, Reggie Bush and Golden Tate to take advantage of such a weak opposing defense. The Lions also have solved their kicking problems with the signing of Matt Prater. |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The Steelers haven't lost a home game on Monday night since 1991 and I expect them to win this game by more than a field goal. Pittsburgh holds a huge edge at quarterback and its defense, which has been disappointing, will be super fired-up after being called soft by former players and coaches. The Steelers' defense is far from dominant like it has been, but it still ranked in the upper half entering this week in total defense, rushing and passing. Pittsburgh also is going against one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is a journeyman, game-manager who is turnover prone. He has a 3-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. He has turned the ball over 10 times this season. The Texans entered Week 7 ranked 28th in passing. The Texans have struggled when facing elite quarterbacks. In their last two games, they've allowed 694 yards through the air in losing to Tony Romo and the Cowboys and Andrew Luck and the Colts. Houston's previous two victories came against the Bills quarterbacked by E.J. Manuel and the Raiders quarterbacked by Derek Carr. I don't see the Texans stopping Ben Roethlisberger. Houston is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 AFC matchups. PROP RECOMMENDATIONS I'm looking to fade Ryan Fitzpatrick on various props. One prop at the Westgate has Fitzpatrick's passing yards at over/under 222.5. I like under. The Texans are a run-first team even when they are behind. Their coaching staff knows Fitzpatrick is a game-manager not a gunslinger. Fitzpatrick has gone under 222.5 yards in four of Houston's six games. He has averaged 183 yards in his last two games. It wouldn't be a shock either if Fitzpatrick didn't finish the game. There has been talk about making a quarterback switch in Houston. |
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10-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Denver Broncos -6.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 61 h 39 m | Show |
San Francisco has too many injuries on defense to keep it close against Peyton Manning. Since Manning joined Denver, the Broncos have won 17 of 19 regular season home games. Manning has thrown 59 touchdown passes in the 19 games. This also is a tough situational spot for the 49ers, traveling on a short week after having played on the road this past Monday against the Rams. Denver has upgraded its defense ranking fourth in fewest yards allowed and fifth in run defense. The 49ers need to run to be successful and they are averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on the road compared to 4.7 at home. |
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10-19-14 | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 24 m | Show |
An all-out focused effort should be forthcoming from the Seahawks after suffering a rare home loss this past Sunday. The Rams are the youngest team in the NFL down to their third-string quarterback, Austin Davis, and with a disappointing ground attack. The Seahawks rank sixth in run defense. Davis has a big arm, but lacks accuracy and has a below average receiving core. The Rams have only one sack, rank 26th in run defense and are giving up 30 points a game. They are on a short week after melting down at home this past Monday night in a loss to the 49ers. The Seahawks get a lot of attention for being near invincible at home, but they are 11-3-1 ATS during their past 14 road games. Russell Wilson is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league. He'll be able to avoid the Rams' frequent blitzes while Marshawn Lynch takes advantage of the Rams' below average run defense. |
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10-13-14 | San Francisco 49ers -3 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Colin Kaepernick is at his best when his ground game is going smoothly. That will be the case in this matchup. The 49ers rank No. 3 in rushing thanks to a hot Frank Gore, who has rushed for 299 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry during his last four games. Gore has had some of his best performances against the Rams, having scored 14 touchdowns against them while running for more than 1,100 yards. St. Louis permits nearly 30 points a game and is second-to-last in stopping the run. The Rams have allowed 100-yard rushers in three of their last four games. Don't be fooled by the Rams ranking No. 1 in pass defense. Their secondary actually isn't very good at all. They've faced the fewest pass attempts per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed close to 71 percent of their throws against the Rams. The Rams are last in the league in sacks, too, with just one. San Francisco owns the superior offense and defense. The 49ers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road and neutral site games, not including playing in Seattle. |
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10-13-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams OVER 43.5 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
The 49ers are No. 3 in rushing. St. Louis is 31st in run defense giving up an average of 152.5 yards per game on the ground. The 49ers have upgraded their receiving weapons and star tight end Vernon Davis should be a go. The Rams only have one sack. Colin Kaepernick will be able to pick his spots off play-action. The Rams' offense has picked up under Austin Davis, who gets better with each game. Davis, unlike many other backups, is a gunslinger not a game manager. He's not afraid to throw long. This is good for the over. So is the game being played on a fast track inside a dome stadium. San Francisco is missing a number of key defenders. The 49ers' defense is down from the last couple of seasons. Both teams have excellent place-kickers, but are weak in coverage so special teams should be good, too, for the over. |
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10-12-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Seattle Seahawks -8 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
I see the Cowboys getting exposed here. Dallas has reeled off four straight victories - beating three weak teams (Titans, Rams and Texans in overtime at home) and underachieving Saints. |
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10-12-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 44 | 37-37 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 19 m | Show | |
The Bengals aren't expected to have their best offensive player, wide receiver A.J. Green. But Cincinnati is expected to have back star linebacker Vontaze Burfict. The Panthers' defense has shown signs of coming around. It's certainly not nearly as good as it was last year, but it's better than it has shown so far. Cincinnati is down several receiving weapons with Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert not expected to play. The Bengals are going to be running the ball more than normal here, which eats clock. The Panthers are a run-first team, but have a cluster injury at running back. Cam Newton isn't 100 percent and is making the adjustment to being a pocket passer, which has reduced his dynamics. He's also facing a strong defense that has allowed just 17 points in two home games, including one against the high octane Falcons. |
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10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 49 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 13 m | Show | |
The 85-degree heat and humidity could factor here. Certainly the Packers are not used to that kid of weather. |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 77 h 31 m | Show |
There is no Super Bowl hangover for the Seahawks. They are just as good this season if not better than 2013. Washington's statistics were highly inflated during Weeks 2 and 3 because the Redskins built them against the Jaguars and Eagles defenses. This, along with playing the Texans and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1, inflated the Redskins' defensive stats, too. Truth be told, the Redskins' defense isn't much better than last year and no longer has cornerback DeAngelo Hall. The Redskins' secondary is highly vulnerable and their linebackers can't cover Percy Harvin. If you discount their performance against overmatched Chad Henne, the Redskins have managed just one sack. In their last two games, the Redskins have allowed Nick Foles and Eli Manning, who had been in a slump, to complete a combined 55 of 80 passes for 625 yards and seven touchdowns with just one interception. Kirk Cousins is a very limited, systems quarterback. He was exposed by the Giants in Washington's last game, a brutal 45-14 home loss. Cousins was picked off four times, three of which came when he wasn't even being pressured. Cousins now faces the premier defense and secondary in the league that is rested following a bye. Last year, the Seahawks played stronger run defense on the road than at home giving up 3.7 yards away from CenturyLink Field compared to 4.2 yards a carry at home. This year, the Seahawks are holding opponents to 2.8 yards on the ground while on the road and 2.7 when at home. Bad news for Alfred Morris. Cousins isn't nearly the playmaker needed against this elite defense if he doesn't have ground support, or respect off play-action. The Seahawks also are riding an eight-game winning streak on Monday night. |
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10-05-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Francisco 49ers -5 | Top | 17-22 | Push | 0 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
The 49ers have yet to play their "A" game, while the Chiefs looked fantastic in demolishing the Patriots at home this past Monday. All of this has made this a cheap number to lay with San Francisco. The Chiefs are traveling to the West Coast on a short week off a big emotional victory. It's a bad setting for them. Even with their victory over the Patriots, the Chiefs are still just 4-8 in their last 12 games. The 49ers' defense is down a notch due to injuries and suspensions. They can be passed on - but not by Alex Smith and his pedestrian receivers. The 49ers are well acquainted with their former teammate knowing his full limitations, which are many. Smith also will be without his second-best wide receiver, Donnie Avery. The Chiefs need to run the ball, but the 49ers have gotten very stingy against the run holding their last three opponents to an average of 2.4 yards per rush. On the flip side, the 49ers should have success against a Chiefs run defense that has allowed opposing backs to average 5.3 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are missing their best linebacker, Derrick Johnson, and best defensive back with safety Eric Berry declared out due to a high ankle sprain. The 49ers have gone back to their bread-and-butter, which is Frank Gore. His running sets up Colin Kaepernick and his upgraded receiving corps. That's the way it should be not the other way around, which Jim Harbaugh has figured out. During the first three weeks, the Chiefs gave up six touchdown passes without an interception. Their secondary is highly vulnerable. |
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10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 97 h 17 m | Show | |
The Broncos haven't played that well yet still have managed to beat the Colts and Chiefs each by seven points at home. Denver has covered 13 of its last 18 regular-season home games when favored since 2012. Peyton Manning should be able to exploit the soft underbelly of the Cardinals, who are down key linebackers from last year and have no pass rush minus Darnell Dockett and John Abraham. Arizona only has three sacks on the season. Backup Drew Stanton is a downgrade from Carson Palmer more game manager than downfield attacker. He is not going to be able to keep up with Manning. The Broncos have upgraded both their run defense and pass defense from a year ago. |
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10-05-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 47.5 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -107 | 101 h 31 m | Show |
Now that Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has taken the shackles off Andrew Luck the Colts are one of the higher scoring teams and Luck has emerged as an MVP candidate. The Colts are leading the NFL in scoring at 34 points a game and are second in yards per game at 444. Luck has thrown for eight touchdowns and 763 yards in the last two weeks. The Colts' ground attack is improved this year and the Ravens' defense is far less intimidating away from home. Baltimore's offense has picked up with solid running back depth and Steve Smith upgrading the receiving corps. Joe Flacco has a strong arm and should be able to move the ball on a mediocre Indy defense who have been lucky enough to face the Jaguars and Charlie Whitehurst-led Titans the last two weeks. This game is on a fast track, too, being played at Lucas Oil Stadium. |
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10-02-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -9 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 41 h 58 m | Show |
The timing is bad here for the Vikings. Green Bay's offense is back in sync with Aaron Rodgers producing one of his best games last week. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is an excellent defensive coach, but it's going to take him time to build back a porous defense that is likely to be missing linebacker Chad Greenway again. Rodgers has regularly taken advantage of the Vikings' vulnerable secondary with a 26-to-4 touchdown-to-interception career ratio. The Vikings are off a great home victory against Atlanta, but now travel on a short week. The Giants beat the home Redskins last Thursday, but in the first three Thursday games of the season the home team has won and covered each time winning by a combined margin of 118-36. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater sparked the Vikings in their win against the Falcons, who suffered multiple offensive line injuries and can't play in outdoor road settings. Bridgewater, though, suffered an ankle injury. There's a drop from Bridgewater to third-stringer Christian Ponder, who would be Minnesota's third starting quarterback in three weeks if Bridgewater is a no good. Even if Bridgewater plays, he won't be at 100 percent and the Packers now have film on him. He won't sneak up on them like he did the Falcons. Bridgewater is missing key weapons Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph. That is going to catch up to the Vikings soon. Green Bay's run defense has been soft, but the Vikings minus Peterson have only pedestrian backs. The Packers are off a huge road win against the Bears. This is their lone home game during a four-week span. They will be taking this matchup very serious. Minnesota hasn't won at Lambeau Field since 2009. I also like these player props (taken from Bovada) on Packers wide receiver Davonte Adams.  I like Adams to go over 2 1/2 receptions and over 25 1/2 receiving yards. Jarrett Boykin is out. Adams is the Packers' new clear No. 3 wide receiver. He played 70 percent of the offensive snaps last week when Boykin didn't play and caught a 34-yard touchdown pass that didn't count because of a penalty. Aaron Rodgers is getting more comfortable throwing to Adams. The Vikings will be paying a lot of attention to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb giving Adams plenty of receiving opportunities. |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots -2.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Before prematurely writing off the Patriots for their slow offensive start consider how bad and banged-up the Chiefs are in key areas. Kansas City has lost eight of its past 11 games. The Chiefs have lost the statistics battle in eight of these 11 games, too. They are minus a number of key defensive players, including safety Eric Berry and their best linebacker, Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have failed to cover in seven of the last 10 games they've played versus foes with a winning record. Kansas City's offensive line is down starters, too, because of injuries and suspensions. Jamaal Charles isn't 100 percent and Alex Smith entered this Week 4 with the worst sack-to-pass-play ratio among starting quarterbacks. He's been sacked 11 times already. New England's defense is playing well coming into this week limiting foes to 272.7 yards and intercepting six passes. The Patriots' offense will come around as Rob Gronkowski gets more involved. So far he's played less than 50 percent of the offensive's snaps. Tom Brady shouldn't have any trouble carving up such a weakened defense. The Patriots also are 7-0 ATS in Week 4. |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 33 m | Show |
In a few weeks this line is going to have looked real cheap. The Saints are 1-2. They could be 3-0 having lost in overtime on the road to Atlanta and in the final three seconds to Cleveland on the road. New Orleans hasn't come close to reaching its peak yet both offensively and defensively. That could come here against Dallas, whose franchise-worst defense of 2013 isn't any better this year if not worse. DeMarco Murray is the lone running back to rush for 100 yards in every game this season, but Tony Romo is past his prime and still not 100 percent following off-season back surgery. He has weapons, but Drew Brees has more weapons, including all-world tight end Jimmy Graham. Brees still remains in his peak. The Saints have beaten the Cowboys in each of their last three meetings, including destroying them, 49-17, last year in the Superdome. The Saints are at their worst in a cold weather setting, which this is not. Dallas is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 home games and 8-18 ATS following a victory. Sean Payton is a far superior coach to Jason Garrett. The Cowboys' road victory against the Titans doesn't look so hot now that Tennessee has looked terrible in its last two games and Dallas' narrow victory this past Sunday against the Rams isn't impressive either considering St. Louis was playing third-string quarterback Austin Davis. Bottom line here is the Saints are two levels higher than the Cowboys. So this is a cheap price to lay and the best time to lay it is now before the line rises as expected. |
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09-28-14 | Miami Dolphins -3.5 v. Oakland Raiders | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 100 h 48 m | Show | |
Oakland can't play in the States and the Raiders won't be any better in London. As bad as Miami has looked the past two weeks the Dolphins are still a much better team than the Raiders. Oakland ranks with Jacksonville as one of the two worst teams in the NFL. The Dolphins have a playoff caliber defense and their offensive line should be at their best with center Mike Pouncey expected back. The Raiders rank last in yards and points on offense. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr has below average wide receivers and no ground support. Carr is going to face pressure from Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, two of the best pass rushers in the AFC. As bad as Oakland is on offense its numbers could be even worse as nearly half of their points and yardage have come during garbage time when the outcome had been decided. |
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09-21-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions OVER 53 | 7-19 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 16 m | Show | |
The Packers' defense remains disappointing lucky not to have surrendered at least 31 points at home last week to the offensively-challenged Jets. Green Bay has surrendered at least 26 points in 10 of its last 13 games. Last year, Green Bay gave up an average of 30.8 points on the road and already yielded 36 in a Week 1 loss to Seattle. The Lions have a lot of weapons, including Calvin Johnson. The Packers haven't been able to match up to him. The Packers have plenty of weapons of their own and have a huge revenge motive to pile up points after the Lions embarrassed them, 40-10, on Thanksgiving. Green Bay was missing Aaron Rodgers in that game. The Packers losing James Jones in the off-season has been offset by the emergence of rookie Davante Adams. Rodgers should have no problem lighting up a Detroit secondary that has multiple injuries and was thin to start. Green Bay has played in six dome games since 2012 and gone over in five of them. The setting is perfect here for a shootout between Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. |
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09-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints -10 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
The Saints have been invincible at home going 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS the past 17 times at the Superdome when Sean Payton is the coach. The Saints are in an ugly frame of mind, too, after blowing late leads to the Falcons and Browns on the road to start 0-2. The Vikings gave up the most points last year. Drew Brees can take advantage with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and other weapons he has. New Orleans averaged 34 points at home last year. The Saints' defense is better than it has looked this year and will get to tee off on journeyman Matt Cassel. Minus Adrian Peterson, Cassel doesn't have the ground game to keep the Saints' pass rush honest. He's not nearly a good enough quarterback to keep pace with Brees. |
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09-21-14 | Washington Redskins v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 50 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by the Redskins' strong defensive numbers. The Redskins have improved only marginally on defense. They've faced Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne to open the season. Now they get Nick Foles and one of the best offenses in football with the Eagles. |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 61 h 14 m | Show |
Now that his key skill position players - Julio Jones, Roddy White and Steven Jackson - are healthy, Matt Ryan can move the ball on any team playing inside the Georgia Dome. The addition of big-play man Dester Hester is another plus for Atlanta. Ryan should have a big night facing a Tampa Bay defense that has been hit hard by injuries to their front seven. The Buccaneers particularly will be missing star tackle Gerald McCoy, out with a hand injury. The Bucs also haven't faced an offense nearly this talented after opening against the Derek Anderson-led Panthers and third-string Austin Davis-led Rams. The Falcons are bad on defense, though. They have surrendered 472 yards in each of their first two games. The Buccaneers have tall, physical wide receivers who can take advantage. Josh McCown has had two games now to get in sync with his new offense. The Falcons don't generate much of a pass rush so I'm expecting McCown to play as well in this game as he played last year for Chicago when he filled in for Jay Cutler. |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -113 | 58 h 27 m | Show |
Both of these teams are favored to win their respective divisions. Both have flaws, though. Right now the Colts are in better shape, have the better quarterback and are at home, which means a lot. During the two-year Andrew Luck era, Indy is 14-3 at home, 12-4-1 ATS. They beat both the Broncos and Seahawks last year by six points each. Philly certainly isn't in that class. Nick Foles already showed signs last week against lowly Jacksonville that he's not going to maintain his incredible 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception season of a year. He committed two turnovers against the Jaguars and was sacked five times. The Colts' pass rush leaves much to be desired minus Robert Mathis, but the Eagles' offensive line is in disarray with four of their top seven linemen out, including star guard Evan Mathis. They are on their third right tackle. Trend-wise the Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in September and have failed to cover the last five times when playing in their second game of the year. The Colts have also covered in eight of their last 10 Monday night games. I |
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09-14-14 | Houston Texans -3 v. Oakland Raiders | 30-14 | Win | 105 | 130 h 15 m | Show | |
The Raiders were even worse than advertised against the Jets, which is saying a lot. The final score was Jets 19, Raiders 14. But the statistics show New York's domination. The Jets outgained the Raiders, 402-158, outrushing them, 212-25. Oakland's below-average wide receivers couldn't even get separation on the Jets' cornerbacks, who could be the worst in the NFL. Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden, both of whom averaged only 3.3 yards per carry last year, both looked terrible. The Raiders have to simplify their playbook for rookie quarterback Derek Carr and don't have the supporting cast for him to succeed. Houston is a prime bounce back team with $100 million man J.J. Watt, perhaps the only player in the league capable of blowing up an offense by himself, along with a healthy-again Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, who are among the best at their respective positions. Ryan Fitzpatrick is an intelligent, veteran game-manager, which is what the Texans need in this spot. It's an added plus for the Texans if the Raiders are without middle linebacker Nick Roach for a second straight week. Houston first-year coach Bill O'Brien is a lot sharper than Oakland coach Dennis Allen. |
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09-14-14 | NY Jets v. Green Bay Packers -8 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -106 | 130 h 26 m | Show |
It's one thing for the Jets to beat Oakland and rookie quarterback Derek Carr at home with the worst cornerbacks in the league. Hanging on the road with Aaron Rodgers is quite another story. I see the Packers blowing out the Raiders. Green Bay has had extra prep time and is in a foul mood following their embarrassing national TV loss to the Seahawks this past Thursday. Green Bay is a much better team than it looked against the Seahawks. The Packers' offense was crisp during preseason with Rodgers running the no-huddle to near perfection. The Jets made a big mistake not spending money on the cornerback position. Now they are extremely thin and vulnerable there. Rodgers, with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, can easily exploit New York's secondary. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS the past nine times when laying seven or more points. Geno Smith plays much worse on the road. Last year, he had a 5-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road. This is the Jets' only road matchup during their first four games so a loss would not be catastrophic for them especially after beating the Raiders last week. |
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09-14-14 | New Orleans Saints -6 v. Cleveland Browns | 24-26 | Loss | -125 | 117 h 53 m | Show | |
I don't see the Browns offense, devoid of skill position talent and with injuries to key players, being able to keep up with Drew Brees. The Browns caught the Steelers coasting and by surprise with a no-huddle offense last Sunday in scoring 24 second-half points. The Saints' defense is much better than it showed against the Falcons. They just ran into a very good - and healthy - Falcons offense in the Georgia Dome. The Saints have film now on the Browns' no-huddle and won't be fooled. The Saints do not have a good track record in outdoor road games, but they did beat the Bears at Soldier Field last season and the Eagles in cold weather during a road playoff game. |
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09-14-14 | New England Patriots -6 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 149 h 15 m | Show |
Look for the Patriots to play much better than they did in Week 1. It has been 33 games since New England lost two regular season games in a row. Consequently, it has been 18 games since Minnesota won consecutive games. The Vikings look improved under Mike Zimmer, but they have a long ways to go after giving up the most touchdown passes and second-most passing yards last season. They are not going against backup quarterbacks this week, but Tom Brady. Brady and the Patriots are eager to redeem themselves after losing in humiliation fashion to the more physical Dolphins. New England's defense is much improved with the return to health of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo plus the addition of Darrelle Revis. Bill Belichick is quite familiar with journeyman quarterback Matt Cassel, who he formerly coached. Note, too, that the Vikings no longer have their indoor dome edge against outdoor teams. The Vikings are playing their games at TCF Bank Stadium. This is their first game there, which will be a distraction and cut down on their home field edge. |
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09-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers -5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 168 h 34 m | Show | |
Dallas had its worst defense in franchise history last season giving up 50 touchdowns and the most yards in team history. The Cowboys defense looks even worse this year because of injuries, defections and a suspension to cornerback Orlando Scandrick. The Cowboys are going to have win via shootouts. The timing isn't great for Dallas' offense. Tony Romo was brought along slowly following off-season back surgery. Romo is rusty and his offensive line has some inexperience. Colin Kaepernick is on the verge of a break-out season with a deep set of receivers, including a healthy Michael Crabtree. San Francisco has covered in eight of its last 10 road games. Dallas has been one of the biggest money-burners at home going 6-13 ATS in their last 19 in Arlington. |
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09-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 51 | 28-17 | Loss | -110 | 156 h 38 m | Show | |
Expect Dallas to have the worst defense in the NFL, even worse than last season. That's saying a lot since the Cowboys surrendered 50 touchdowns and the most yards in franchise history. The 49ers are down, too, on defense missing key cogs linebacker NaVorro Bowman and pass rushing terror Aldon Smith. By contrast, the 49ers should be much improved on offense. Colin Kapernick is on the verge of a break-out season and he has a deep set of receivers to throw to, including Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and veteran newcomers Steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd. The 49ers should have no problem taking advantage of the Cowboys missing their pass rushers, linebacker and cornerback. Dallas, though, is going to put up points with a solid offensive line, a healthy Tony Romo and excellent skill position players, including the most dangerous red zone target among wide receivers in Dez Bryant. |
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09-07-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 11 m | Show | |
The Steelers have owned the Browns winning seven of the past eight times. They have held Cleveland to an average of 9.3 points during the past 12 meetings. The Browns look just as terrible on offense as ever. Brian Hoyer is more backup than starter and he could have the worst starting wide receiver tandem in the NFL in washed-up Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins. The Steelers' defense is always tough, especially at home, and it received an infusion of new blood spearheaded by good-looking rookie Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh's offense is more balanced this season. The Steelers' offensive line is more stable and Ben Roethlisberger has two good running backs - Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount - to help make his deadly play action passes work. The Steelers closed last season covering seven of their last eight games. The Browns are just 3-7 in their last 10 road games. They also are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Pittsburgh. No team has been more futile on opening day than the Browns, who are 1-14 SU and 2-12-1 ATS since coming back into the league in 1999. |
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09-07-14 | Tennessee Titans +4.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 164 h 13 m | Show |
The Chiefs aren't coming close to winning 11 games this season. They lost three offensive linemen in free agency and another, right tackle, Donald Stephenson, is suspended for the first four games. The key member of the line, left tackle Eric Fisher, is coming off shoulder surgery and hasn't looked good. Also suspended is Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City's best wide receiver. The Chiefs could have the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL without Bowe. The Chiefs' offense struggled during preseason as their first-string offense failed to produce a touchdown. The Chiefs are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Titans, on the other hand, look like one of the more improved teams in the NFL. They upgraded their coaching bringing in proven winner and offensive guru Ken Whisenhunt. Jake Locker is healthy and is ready for a breakout season fortified with three underrated wide receivers - Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright and Nate Washington. They can take advantage of a Kansas City defense that fell apart during the second half of last season. Tennessee is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight road contests. |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 46 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 77 h 46 m | Show |
The Packers' no-huddle, quick-tempo offense can combat the loud noise level in Seattle and the Packers' physical wide receivers can deal with Seattle's aggressive secondary. Both secondaries are going to be hurt by the official's increased scrutiny on defensive holding and pass interference. It's definitely a plus for the offenses, especially in this matchup where the league wants to set a tone right away. The Seahawks are going to be passing more this season. The Packers are weak at linebacker and have problems handling power backs such as Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks are extra dangerous with a healthy Percy Harvin, who also is live to score a touchdown via special teams. |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
Everybody seems to be just recalling the Seahawks smashing the Broncos in the Super Bowl and forgetting about the Packers, who with Aaron Rodgers and a healthy lineup are as good as any team on a neutral field. Seattle is the loudest outdoor venue in the league, but Green Bay negates some of that Seahawks' home field advantage with a no-huddle. The Packers are no longer a finesse team. Not with powerful Eddie Lacy. The Seahawks have the best secondary in the league. But their physical secondary is going to be affected more than any other team with the increased emphasis from officials on flagging defensive holding and making tighter pass interference calls. The Packers are deep at wide receiver. The Seahawks are actually weak at nickel back with Jeremy Lane, who isn't 100 percent because of a groin injury and will have problems handling Randall Cobb, who the Packers constantly move around. Seattle lost three of their top seven defensive linemen reducing their depth. Green Bay's offensive line is underrated especially with Bryan Bulaga healthy. I would take Green Bay's offensive line over Seattle's. The Packers have a deep secondary, too, and their defensive line is much improved. The Packers haven't forgotten either how they were robbed during their last visit to Seattle two years ago when replacement referees stole the game from Green Bay. |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos UNDER 47 | Top | 43-8 | Loss | -105 | 159 h 46 m | Show |
Of course weather is a factor in my decision to go under. But so is Seattle's conservative approach and my belief that Peyton Manning and his record-setting offense will struggle to put up touchdowns against the Seahawks' No. 1 rated defense.
Manning has not encountered a defense as talented as Seattle's, nor one that uses the kind of schemes the Seahawks do. It wasn't a fluke the Seahawks allowed an average of just 14 points per game during the regular season and 16 during the playoffs in victories against the Saints and 49ers. Seattle doesn't have to rely on blitzes because its secondary is so good and can cover one-on-one. Manning's strength is the short-game, he doesn't have a powerful arm. The physical Seahawks are at their best defending this type of offense. They also blow up screen passes, which has been a staple of Denver's offense. The Broncos were held to an average of 25 points a game in the playoffs by San Diego and New England. Seattle's defense is far superior to those teams. If wind is a factor than Manning really is going to be hurt. Both teams have good kickers, but field goals are far from automatic at this stadium especially during winter conditions. Denver's defense is better than its numbers indicate. Russell Wilson doesn't throw many passes. His receivers are average at best even with Percy Harvin expected to play. Pete Carroll's approach of pounding Marshawn Lynch in between the tackles is great for the under. Here is a list of props I recommend. All are taken from the Las Vegas Hilton: UNDER 24 1/2 Receiving Yards by Knowshon Moreno: First off, Moreno is dealing with bruised ribs. So his playing time may be limited. If he fails to catch a pass, then under is the winner. Moreno has been dangerous in Denver's screen game. But no team defends screen passes better than the Seahawks. They will be well prepared for this play. UNDER 4 1/2 yards on Montee Ball's first reception: Ball isn't much of a receiver. So he may not catch a pass, which would be a winner right there. Even if he does haul in a pass, there's no guarantee he could gain more than four yards since it probably would be a screen pass, or a check down play. Seattle is the best at defending against screen passes and its linebackers are quick and athletic. Note, too, you should be able to get a plus price on this prop. UNDER 50 1/2 Receiving Yards by Julius Thomas: Thomas has been a monster during the regular season, but he hasn't gone against a secondary or strong safety the quality of Kam Chancellor. Thomas isn't as good as Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis. Those two COMBINED for three receptions and 24 yards in their respective playoff games against Seattle. UNDER 4 1/2 Receptions for Julius Thomas: My handicap is to Seattle stopping Thomas so it makes sense to also play under his total number of catches. |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -3 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 146 h 44 m | Show | |
Seattle is the better team with the better statistics and has a monster home edge.
Only once in their last 17 games have the Seahawks lost at CenturyLink Field. They are 12-5 ATS during this span. Both teams have outstanding defensive front sevens. The difference is in the defensive backfield where the 49ers are vulnerable and Seattle has the best secondary in football with interception leader Richard Sherman and the best safety tandem of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks are plus 22 in turnover ratio. I see them winning the turnover battle backed by their huge vocal crowd support and facing Colin Kaepernick, who while talented is a work in progress. The 49ers' wide receivers are big and physical. But they don't get much separation. They are not a good matchup against the Seahawks' highly-physical secondary. |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos -4.5 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 144 h 13 m | Show |
New England doesn't have the offense to hang with Peyton Manning and Denver's record setting offense.
The Patriots also are too battered on defense missing their best lineman, Vince Wilfork and top linebacker Jerod Mayo. Also out is lineman Tommy Kelly and linebacker Brandon Spikes. New England has been relying on LeGarrette Blount and a bruising ground game to offset its passing weaknesses. Blount is going against a top-10 rush defense not the soft Bills and Colts. New England wide receivers combined for just 16 touchdown receptions. Demaryius Thomas alone had 14 touchdown catches for Denver. Manning keeps raising his Hall of Fame game while Tom Brady is in decline finishing 17th in quarterback ratings. The Patriots have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 playoff games. New England played an easy schedule yet still allowed at least 24 points to a number of bad offenses, including the Jets, Browns, Texans and Dolphins. Manning will have no trouble lighting up the Patriots especially with mild temperatures and little wind expected. Manning has far more dangerous weapons than Brady, including former New England wideout Wes Welker. |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos OVER 55.5 | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 59 m | Show |
First off, the weather is going to be near perfect. When the Broncos played the Patriots in the first meeting on Nov. 24 there were 65 points scored with the Patriots winning, 34-31. That was played in low 20 degree weather. This matchup is going to feature no rain or wind and temps in the 50s.
The Broncos are going to light up the Patriots with their high-powered attack. Bill Belichick would be hard-pressed to stop the Broncos' record-setting offense even if he had a healthy defense. But New England's battered defense is missing too many key players - Jerod Mayo, Tommy Kelly, Vince Wilfork and Brandon Spikes - to have any chance of slowing down Peyton Manning. All of Manning's top four receiving weapons scored double-digit touchdowns. Running back Knowshon Moreno also had a big season. The Patriots have been running the ball well, but can expect to see Denver playing to stop the run with an eight-man front. That means lots of passing from Tom Brady. |
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01-12-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Carolina Panthers OVER 42 | 23-10 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 2 m | Show | |
Forget the team's earlier 10-9 game. This isn't going to be a track meet, but there will be enough scoring to go over this total.
The 49ers didn't have Michael Crabtree in that game and Vernon Davis left in the second quarterback with a concussion. Both teams have outstanding defensive fronts and linebackers. However, each secondary is vulnerable. Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton are the two best running quarterbacks in football. They don't need to rely on schemes to make big plays. Steve Smith figures to be back to give Newton a deep threat while Kaepernick's game is elevated with the return of Crabtree. The 49ers have the best offensive line in football, a top running back in Frank Gore, a dominant tight end in Davis and two excellent possession wideouts in Crabtree and Anquan Boldin. There's a chance of rain, but little wind and temperatures expected to be in the 50s. |
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01-12-14 | San Francisco 49ers -120 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 117 h 57 m | Show |
The 49ers are peaking at the right time. Both San Francisco and Carolina have dominant defensive front sevens. But the 49ers have a big edge on offense and special teams.
Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton are mobile quarterbacks who can pile up yards either passing or running. The 49ers, though, have the best offensive line in football and Kaepernick has better skill position players. The Panthers nipped the 49ers, 10-9, in the team's first meeting. However, San Francisco didn't have Michael Crabtree and lost Vernon Davis to a concussion in the second quarter. Crabtree is getting better and better each week. Since Crabtree returned, Kaepernick is 103-for-171 for 1,437 yards. Frank Gore rushed for 1,000 yards in seven of the last nine seasons. He's far better than any of Carolina's running backs. Newton is not playoff savvy and has struggled at time to put up points. Jim Harbaugh is an elite coach. Ron Rivera has never coached a playoff game. Carolina has been hot, too, down the stretch, but having extra rest hasn't been a positive during the past three seasons as the last three Super Bowl winners all played without a bye having been wildcard teams just like San Francisco. |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 145 h 26 m | Show |
The 49ers are playing their best ball having won six in a row. They have covered their last seven road games and won't be intimidated at all playing in cold weather at Lambeau Field.
The 49ers were unstoppable when they beat the Packers at home by two touchdowns in last season's playoffs piling up 579 yards. The Packers couldn't stop Colin Kaepernick on the ground or through the air. The Packers vowed to get more physical after that game. Green Bay cut some of the gap, but still lost by a touchdown opening week at home to the 49ers. The Packers keyed on Kaepernick's running ability so he burned them through the air throwing for more than 400 yards. Green Bay has been merely surviving flying through the seat of its pants. Rodgers being back gives the Packers a puncher's chance, but the 49ers are far more healthier than Green Bay and have a far superior defense. Rodgers couldn't beat the 49ers at home when he was 100 percent and had tight end Jermichael Finley and the defense had star pass rusher Clay Matthews. Injuries have just about decimated Green Bay. Randall Cobb is back, but he's not 100 percent. Eddie Lacy is dealing with a sore ankle. Too many of Green Bay's inexperienced reserves are thrust into key roles. That's not going to cut it versus San Francisco. |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bengals, particularly Andy Dalton, have much to prove after losing in the first round of the playoffs each of the last two seasons.
Everything lines up for the Bengals to prove themselves in a big way in this matchup. The Bengals are home against a mediocre West Coast team coming into 30-degree weather with a mix of snow and rain forecast and playing at an early start time. The Chargers are well-coached, but their talent level - especially on defense - doesn't come close to matching the Bengals. Cincinnati has been dominant at home winning and covering all eight of its games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals have beaten good teams at home, too, defeating the Steelers, Packers, Patriots, Jets, Colts and Ravens. The Bengals have won their home games by an average of 17.6 points, the last five home games were won by an average of 24 points. Cincinnati finished with the top defense in the AFC allowing 305.5 yards per game. San Diego ranks 23rd in yards given up. The Chargers are especially vulnerable through the air ranking 29th. Dalton has been brilliant - at home. He's thrown 17 touchdown passes in his last five home contests. A.J. Green and Marvin Jones combined for 21 touchdown receptions. They should dominate a weak San Diego secondary. The Bengals defeated the Chargers, 17-10, at San Diego this season despite Dalton not playing well. They won it by rushing for 166 yards and getting another strong defensive effort. The Bengals could have won by double-digits but took a knee at the three-yard line at the end following a long drive. |
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 16 m | Show | |
Yes, the Saints' road troubles are well documented. But the Eagles didn't post a winning home mark and have covered only 23 percent of their last 27 home games.
The Saints have the superior and more experienced big-game quarterback, Drew Brees, than the Eagles plus a stronger defense. Those are two key components, especially when taking points. New Orleans has playoff experience and an elite coach, Sean Payton. Chip Kelly did a fine job with the Eagles, but has never coached a pro playoff game. My trust lies far more with Brees and Payton than with Kelly and Nick Foles. Foles has to go against a Saints defense that ranked fourth in fewest yards allowed. Brees, who knows cold weather from having played at Purdue and has a 65 percent completion rate in cold weather games, gets to operate against the Eagles' 29th-ranked defense and last ranked pass defense. Brees has a deeper wide receiving group than Foles does, too, plus the best tight end in football, Jimmy Graham. |
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts -128 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 72 h 56 m | Show | |
The Colts are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS at home in the two years Andrew Luck has been their quarterback.
The Colts have beaten far tougher foes than the Chiefs and they beat the Chiefs, 23-7, at Kansas City just two weeks ago. Jamaal Charles had his usual strong performance, but the Chiefs couldn't do anything putting up just one score while failing to convert on eight of nine third downs. The Colts are playoff-experienced having made the postseason last season in Luck's rookie year while the Chiefs last made the playoffs in 2010. This is the first time Kansas City, a grass team, is playing inside a dome. The combination of playing a very weak schedule and their defense regressing will prove too much for the Chiefs to overcome. If you throw out the Chiefs' game against the 3-13 Redskins, they've allowed an average of 30.6 points in their last six games. Their once vaunted pass rush has become non-existent recording five sacks in six games, not including the Redskins rest stop matchup. Kansas City is 2-6 ATS when playing foes with a winning mark. The Chiefs not only were fortunate getting to play such horrendous opponents as the Redskins, Raiders twice, Texans, Jaguars, Titans, Browns and Bills, but they are a plus 22 in turnover ratio. Kansas City needs to come up with takeaways because its offense isn't that strong. But the Colts - who beat Denver, San Francisco and Seattle - committed the fewest turnovers in the league thanks to the heady Luck. He's far superior to game-manager Alex Smith. Smith is going to have to deal with Robert Mathis, who led the NFL in sacks with 19 1/2 and forced eight fumbles. |
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12-29-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks -10 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 129 h 23 m | Show |
The Rams very well could get shut out in this game. It's not a fluke Seattle is ranked No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in fewest points allowed. Seattle has the quickest and most athletic defense in football. The Seahawks also have the hardest hitting secondary.
I don't see any way the Rams are going to stay competitive with the Seahawks, who are going to be fully focused after having their 14-game home win streak end this past Sunday against the Cardinals and with the NFC West Division and a first-round bye at stake. Seattle is 7-2 ATS in December and 7-2 ATS following an ATS loss. The Seahawks aren't going to forget either than St. Louis nearly upset them in Week 8. The Rams are heavily run-oriented, forced to be that way with starting quarterback Sam Bradford out and extremely limited backup Kellen Clemens behind center. Making things worse for St. Louis is its best offensive lineman, left tackle Jake Long, is out. The Rams also could be missing their lone big-play threat, Tavon Austin. The Rams have a fierce pass rush, but their secondary can be exploited. Russell Wilson is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. St. Louis doesn't have the run defense, nor the ballhawks in the secondary that Arizona does. The Rams have failed to cover in five of their last seven road games. Seattle is the toughest place to play in the NFL. The Seahawks have covered 68 percent of their past 54 home games. |
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12-29-13 | Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 17-34 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
There are no secrets between these two long standing division rivals. The defending Super Bowl champion Ravens desperately need this game to greatly enhance their playoff chances.
The Ravens are coming off a 41-7 home loss to New England. So it's really gut check time for the Ravens, who are 4-0 under John Harbaugh following a loss of 20 or more points. The Ravens are down from last season. No doubt about that. But they remain well-coached with prideful veterans and a defense that has permitted just four more touchdown throws than interceptions since Week 2. Despite the presence of the magnificent A.J. Green, the Bengals still are a short passing team afraid to fully trust Andy Dalton despite his strong home statistics. I know the Ravens will produce an effort. I'm not so sure about the Bengals, who already have won the AFC North Division. They have always lacked a killer instinct. |
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12-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | 11-54 | Win | 100 | 43 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a terrible matchup for the Bears, who have one of the worst run defenses of all time giving up 152 yards per game on the ground.
The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing at 152 yards per game. LeSean McCoy is the leading rusher in the NFL with 1,343 yards. Prior to laying an egg against the Vikings last week, the Eagles had held their past nine opponents to 21 points or less. Chicago has surrendered an average of 31 points during its last four games. I trust Nick Foles more than Jay Cutler not to commit turnovers. Foles has a fantastic 23-to-2 touchdown-to-interception. Chicago has failed to cover in nine of its last 11 games versus NFC opponents. |
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