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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Angels | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Look for Zach Greinke to tame an Angels team that has scored 4 or fewer runs in 11 of their last 15 games. The Angels continue to be without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Greinke has pitched his best ball away from Houston. He's 5-0 on the road with a 2.67 ERA.  Southpaw Patrick Sandoval is slated to go for Anaheim. He is 1-4 with a 3.50 home ERA. Sandoval has made four career appearances versus the Astros, including three starts, and is 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA.  Houston leads the majors in batting average against lefties at .278. The Astros also have the fourth-highest slugging percentage against southpaws in the majors. Houston has scored the most runs per game of any team in baseball.Â
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08-13-21 | Cubs v. Marlins -114 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Miami pitcher Jesus Luzardo has a high ceiling. He's been disappointing early in his big league career with a 3-5 record and 7.36 ERA. But the Cubs have become an auto-fade in this type of price range.  Luzardo could be in line now for a big game against a decimated Cubs lineup that no longer has the traded Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baer and also is minus injured players Wilson Contreras, Nico Hoerner and Jason Heyward. The Cubs are in free-fall, losing 14 of their last 16, including the past eight. They've lost their last two games by a combined margin of 27-4.  Adbert Alzolay is slated to start for Chicago. The Cubs are 1-9 in his last 10 starts. Alzolay deserves this record with a 5.90 ERA in his last 10 starts. Miami owns the superior bullpen now that the Cubs jettisoned closer Craig Kimbrel.  The Marlins were idle Thursday after upsetting the Padres, 7-0, two days ago. So their bullpen is rested. The Cubs, by contrast, are playing for the fifth time in four days.Â
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08-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
The Blue Jays aren't as dangerous offensively on the road. Toronto's home batting average is .275. The Blue Jays' home slugging percentage is .490 with a .339 on-base percentage. These numbers on the road shrink to a .258 batting average, .430 slugging percentage and .318 on-base percentage. The Blue Jays go into a pitcher's ballpark here while facing one of the better pitchers in the American League, Shohei Ohtani, who is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA. Ohtani's ERA dips to 1.79 when pitching at home where he's 4-0.  Jose Berrios will be making his third start for Toronto. He's given up one earned run in his two Blue Jays starts spanning 12 innings. He has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio for Toronto.  The Angels haven't scored more than 4 runs in 11 of their last 14 games. They remain without superstar Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. So I'm expecting a very good pitcher's duel.Â
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08-12-21 | Reds +137 v. Braves | 12-3 | Win | 137 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Atlanta is playing well. But I see too much value on the underdog Reds here. Cincinnati has a better record than the Braves and has the hottest power hitter in the majors. Yes, Joey Votto has hit the most homers and driven in the most runs since the All-Star break. Calls of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.  Rookies Vladimir Gutierrez versus Kyle Muller compose the pitching matchup. I'll side with Gutierrez against the southpaw Muller. Gutierrez is pitching his best ball going 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA during his last three starts. He's struggled at hitter-friendly Great American Park, but is 5-1 with a 3.11 ERA on the road.  Muller is the opposite of Gutierrez in that he has pitched worse at home where he's 0-2 with a 4.43 ERA. The Reds rank fourth in the National League in slugging percentage against lefties.
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08-12-21 | Tigers v. Orioles UNDER 10.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
I've played the Tigers each of the first two games of this series. So far so good as Detroit won both games. However, with John Means starting for Baltimore here I see a big red stop sign.  There is a way to stay involved in this series, though: The total. It's priced too high.  Means is 5-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He would get far more attention if he pitched for a better team.  The wild card besides both bullpens is Tigers rookie starter Matt Manning. He has a very high ceiling, but has been inconsistent in compiling a 2-5 record and 6.33 ERA. I believe Manning can handle a cold-hitting Orioles squad that is averaging just 3.1 runs in their last six games. Manning's day time ERA is a more respectable 4.32.  Both teams are missing a key hitter, too. Akil Baddoo and Ryan Mountcastle are each on the concussion list.  Note, too, this is a daytime get-away game. So there could be reserves playing.Â
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08-12-21 | Cardinals -119 v. Pirates | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
I hold no illusions about Wade LeBlanc. He's a journeyman pure and simple. But with LeBlanc on the mound for the Cardinals, this a chance to fade the Pirates at a reasonable price.  The Pirates may be the worst team in baseball righ tnow. They have dropped seven in a row, scoring only six runs during their last five games. They are 18-38 during their past 56 games.  As far as the pitching matchup, I still would take LeBlanc over JT Brubaker, who is 4-11 with a 4.95 ERA. Brubaker has lost seven straight decisions and holds an 0-3 lifetime record against St. Louis with a 5.30 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. |
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08-11-21 | Tigers v. Orioles OVER 10 | 5-2 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
What happens when you have a bad starting rotation coupled with a horrendous bullpen? Big trouble. That's the Orioles, who rank last in ERA, quality starts and WHIP. Baltimore is giving up an average of 10.8 runs in its last five games.  The Tigers have a below par bullpen, too. They're starting southpawTarik Skubal, who has a 4.32 ERA and has surrendered 25 homers.  Detroit, though, should do its share of damage facing Matt Harvey, who left his last start a week ago after tweaking his knee. He had given up two runs in four innings against the Yankees in that game. That performance ended a string of three superb starts for Harvey, which was highly usual considering he hasn't been good for six years.  High humidity and the wind blowing out left at 7-10 mph is another plus for the Over.Â
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08-11-21 | Tigers -114 v. Orioles | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The Tigers are better than perceived winning 25 of their last 43 games. The Orioles are as bad as perceived with a 38-73 record. Baltimore has lost five in a row, giving up at least 9 runs in each of these losses.  I'm going to ride the superior Tigers at this low of a lay price in a pitching matchup of leftyTarik Skubal versus Matt Harvey. Skubal is coming off five scoreless innings against the Red Sox in an 8-1 victory six days ago. Baltimore is 8-18 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter.  Harvey had pitched 18 1/3 scoreless innings until his last outing when he gave up two runs in four innings against the Yankees. Despite that hot streak, Harvey still has a 6.13 ERA. I consider that hot streak a fluke judging by various pitching metrics and how poorly he has pitched most of the season and the past four years before that.Â
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08-11-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 10 | 8-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
I believe this game is priced more than one run too high. David Price is rounding into shape and Kyle Gibson has been tough all season with a 2.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  Both teams have injuries to key hitters, too.  The Dodgers aren't expected to have Mookie Betts (hip) and Justin Turner (groin). The Phillies are minus Rhys Hoskins and could still be missing Andrew McCutchen.Â
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08-10-21 | Tigers +100 v. Orioles | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I had the Tigers as very strong favorites in this game with a pitching matchup of Casey Mize versus Keegan Akin. So I'm pleasantly surprised to see this line.  Mize is one the top pitching prospects in baseball. The right-hander faced the Orioles on July 29 and held them to one unearned run on four hits in seven innings. The Orioles are second-to-last in the American League in on-base percentage versus righties and 13th in slugging percentage against righthanders.  The Tigers are 24-18 in their last 42 games. The Orioles own the second-worst record in baseball at 38-72. Baltimore has lost 75 percent of its last 51 games when facing a righty starter.  Lefty Keegan Akin goes for Baltimóre backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Akin gave up six runs on eight hits in only three innings during his previous start, which came on July 16 against the Royals. Akin is 0-5 on the season with a 7.66 ERA. |
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08-09-21 | Yankees v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Jameson Taillon has been sailing under-the-radar. He's one of the hottest pitchers in baseball having surrendered just six runs in his last six starts spanning 37 1/3 innings. He is 2-0 lifetime against the Royals in two career starts with a 0.68 ERA and a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The Royals rank 25th in runs and 27th in homers.  Kansas City starter Carlos Hernandez also has been hot. His last two starts have both come against the White Sox, who have scored the sixth-most runs per game in the majors. Hernandez held the White Sox to one run on six hits in 11 innings during these starts with 10 strikeouts.  The Yankees just were shut out, 2-0, by the Mariners on Sunday. New York is minus Anthony Rizzo and Gary Sanchez. Those two players have hit 17 homers apiece this season.  The Under is 12-2 in the Yankees' last 14 road contests, while the Under is 8-1-2 during the Royals' last 11 games as a home 'dog.Â
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08-08-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. A's | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
I understand the Rangers, losers of 13 straight road games, are tough to back. But there's value to them here being on the road with the extra at bat getting 1 1/2 runs against Oakland, which is just 6-6 in its last 12 games.  I'm not a fan of Rangers starter Jordan Lyles, but he does eat up innings. He's reached at least the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. He's surrendered two or fewer runs during five of those past eight starts. So he's not a bottom tier pitcher. Oakland ranks 24th in batting at .234 and that includes the A's 16-hit outburst against Texas on Saturday.  The A's are minus suspended outfielder Ramon Laureano. Teams often rest some starters on Sunday so Lyles may have a few rest stops in Oakland's batting order.  Oakland starter James Kaprielian had been pitching well until his last start. That came on July 27 at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Kaprielian gave up six earned runs to the Padres in just 4 1/3 innings. He went on the injured list the next day with a shoulder injury. This is his first start since then. |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
A discussion of National League Cy Young Award candidates should include Zach Wheeler. He's replaced Aaron Nola as the top pitcher on the Phillies staff. Wheeler is 9-6 with a 2.57 ERA. He leads the National League with 170 strikeouts.  Wheeler has been at his best in day action going 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA. He's facing a slumping Mets team that is averaging only 2.8 runs during their last 17 games.  Mets starter Taijuan Walker has proven talented when healthy, which he is now. He's 7-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He catches a Phillies lineup that could be minus three of their infielders as Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura are all nursing injuries.  Both pitchers should be helped by the wind blowing in to left at 8 mph.Â
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08-07-21 | Angels v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
I don't give Jaime Barria much of a chance against the Dodgers. This is just Barria's third start of the season. The Dodgers have scored the third-most runs per game in the majors. Their lineup is going to get better, too, with Trea Turner slated to make his first start as a Dodger today at second base.  Julio Urias goes for the Dodgers. He's a good pitcher, but his 13-3 record makes him a bit overrated. He's faced six weak teams during his past 10 starts. The Angels scored five runs off Urias when they met on May 7.  The Angels' lineup has received a boost with hotshot rookie Jo Adell on board and Jared Walsh having a chance to play today after being out with a right intercostal strain.  The Over is 26-10-3 during the Angels' last 39 interleague games. |
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08-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
This is one of those rare and near-impossible instances of the Diamondbacks actually being fat and happy. Arizona still is gloating about coming from five runs down to defeat the Padres, 8-5, on the road Friday night.  That victory, though, was against rookie Ryan Weathers. Now the Diamondbacks face ace Yu Darvish and an angry Padres bunch. Darvish has a 3.16 ERA at Petco Park this season.  I expect Darvish to pitch much better than Weathers did and for San Diego to destroy Diamondbacks starter Taylor Widener, who in his last three starts spanning 12 2/3 innings has given up a staggering 15 earned runs on 18 hits, nine walks and four homers.  Each of the Padres' last five victories have been by 3 runs or more.Â
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08-07-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -155 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Austin Gomber sounds like he could be a relative of Gomber and Goober Pyle. But there's nothing funny about how he has been pitching. Gomber is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA during his last 10 starts.  Gomber knows how to pitch at Coors Field, too, where he is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA this season.  Pitching at Coors is a relatively new experience for Jesus Luzardo. So is pitching in the majors. This is just his second big league start of the season for Luzardo, who has thrown 5 2/3 career innings at Coors and has a 7.94 ERA to show for that.  The Rockies and Marlins are bottom-feeders. But Colorado is a completely different team at Coors compiling a 36-21 mark there this season. The Marlins traded Starling Marte, their lone dynamic player.Â
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Considering their huge payroll and name hitters in their lineup, it's shocking the Mets rank 29th in runs. New York hasn't scored more than 5 runs during its last 15 games.  So I'm not expecting a big offensive showing from the Mets against Kyle Gibson and a Phillies bullpen that improved their depth at the trade deadline. Gibson is enjoying a long-awaited breakthrough season with a 2.86 ERA. His ERA with the Phillies is 2.70.  The Mets are going with Marcus Stroman, who is the best active pitcher on their staff with Jacob deGrom on IL. Stroman has been solid all season with a 2.80 ERA. He has a 2.50 career ERA versus the Phillies. Stroman has a 2.19 ERA when pitching in night games this season.   Friday Free Bonus Play Red Sox plus $1.28 at Blue Jays  The Red Sox didn't play well against the Tigers on Thursday and they were smacked, 8-1. The Red Sox are a high quality team in bounce back mode. They are 31-24 on the road. That loss to the Tigers should wake up the Red Sox. So I'm attracted to taking a 'dog price on them.  The pitching matchup is Nathan Eovaldi versus rookie Alek Manoah. I really like Manoah, who has struck out 56 batters in 47 1/3 innings. He can be inconsistent, like most young pitchers, but this isn't a play against him. Rather it's a value play on the Red Sox. Boston is averaging just 2.5 runs in its last nine games. The Red Sox are putting on baserunners, though. They're just not capitalizing as during their last nine games they've knocked in only nine of 75 runners in scoring position, a meager 12 percent. That percentage is due to rise.  Eovaldi has been steady with a 9-6 mark and 3.71 ERA in 21 starts this year. He holds a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in eight career appearances against Toronto. Eovaldi faced the Blue Jays on June 14 and held them scoreless during his 6 2/3 innings. |
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08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The White Sox should be steaming mad having been embarrassed, 9-1, at home by the Royals Wednesday. Dallas Keuchel shouldn't lack motivation either as he takes the mound for Chicago after failing to hold a 6-1 lead against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday.  Keuchel, a two-time All-Star, is past his prime at 33. But he's not over-the-hill. He's backed by an improved bullpen that recently added Craig Kimbrel. I expect a kill spot here for the White Sox facing lefty Daniel Lynch. The White Sox are 38-19 at home. They are 20-10 versus southpaw starters. The Royals are 18-35 on the road.Â
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08-05-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
The Blue Jays could have the best offense in baseball ranking in the top three in most of the major categories, including runs, batting average and homers. George Springer has gotten hot, too, making Toronto's lineup even more fierce. Triston McKenzie is going to have problems dealing with this so early in his career. McKenzie has a high ceiling, but is going through growing pains with a 1-4 record and 6.11 ERA.  I liked Toronto starter Ross Stripling more when he was in the National League. He's 4-6 with a 4.75 ERA. The Indians have an average offense, but it has picked up with the return to health of several players. I see the Indians holding up their bargain in making this total go Over.
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08-05-21 | Phillies -139 v. Nationals | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
The Phillies have won four in a row. They are chasing the Mets to win the NL East Division. The Nationals are in rebuild after dealing Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline. Now throw in a pitching matchup of Aaron Nola versus Joe Ross and this is more than a fair price to lay with Philadelphia.  Nola is 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in day games this season. Ross is 2-5 with a 5.32 ERA at home this year.
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08-04-21 | Braves -115 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
The Braves scored five runs in the first inning on lefty Jon Lester on Tuesday. Now the Braves get to face another over-the-hill southpaw, J.A. Happ.  Atlanta strengthened itself at the trade deadline especially when it comes to right-handed power getting Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall. I can see the Braves steamrolling Happ, who has given up 4 or more earned runs in 10 of his last 14 starts.  Drew Smyly goes for Atlanta. He's allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts. Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two career starts versus St. Louis. He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cardinals on June 20 giving up only an infield single.Â
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08-04-21 | Mets v. Marlins +152 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
The Mets seem to be pressing clinging to a narrow lead in the NL East Division having lost three in a row and 12 of their last 20 games.  This is a value play as the Mets shouldn't be laying this high of a road number unless Jacob deGrom is pitching and he's on the injured list. Instead Carlos Carrasco gets the start. He's a good pitcher, but he's making the adjustment to the National League and has pitched only four innings all season having been out all this time with a hamstring injury. Carrasco is working his way into shape.  The Marlins are going with Zach Thompson, a good-looking rookie who has a 2.33 ERA in eight starts.  Miami is playing loose with nothing to lose. The Mets are playing tight and it's too early for them to count on a rusty Carrasco.Â
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08-04-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
Now that Matt Harvey has thrown three straight strong games, the title for worst starting pitcher in the American League can now maybe be bestowed upon J.C. Mejia. The Cleveland rookie is 1-6 with a 7.60 ERA.  I'm surprised Mejia still is in Cleveland's rotation after going 0-4 in five July starts with a 10.55 ERA. He faces a powerful Blue Jays squad that ranks either first, second or third in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers. Toronto is averaging 6.1 runs in its last six games.  The Blue Jays are starting Steven Matz, who has a 5.74 ERA when pitching at night.  The scheduled home plate umpire is David Rackley, who has an Over bias with an 83-59 (58 percent) above the total mark since 2016.   |
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08-04-21 | Twins v. Reds -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The Twins are a step above the Diamondbacks, Rangers, Pirates, Rangers and Orioles. But only a slight step.  Minnesota is especially bad on the road, losers of 12 of its past 17 away contests.  The Twins, however, managed to pull off a ninth-inning rally to beat the Reds, 7-5, on Tuesday. I don't see a repeat of that happening with a pitching matchup of lefty Charlie Barnes versus Luis Castillo.  Barnes has pitched less than five innings in the big leagues. He's certainly not experienced throwing at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, one of the top hitter's stadiums in the majors. The Reds are 12-8 versus lefties this season.  Castillo has turned his season completely around. He was terrible at the start of the season. But since late May, he hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any game. He's held opponents to two or fewer runs in nine of his last 12 starts. Castillo has struck out 31 in his last four starts spanning 24 1/3 innings. |
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08-03-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
Don't get fooled by the 19 runs scored in the Giants' 11-8 extra inning win against the Diamondbacks on Monday. I'm expecting a much different type of score in this game. Projected starters Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner are both past their prime. Agreed. But both are in excellent form. Cueto has a 2.30 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the Dodgers in his last start this past Thursday holding LA scoreless for 5 2/3 innings on four hits. Arizona is well below average offensively. The Diamondbacks have hit the second-fewest homers in the majors.  The Giants were able to rest their two best relievers, Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers, in their Monday victory.  Bumgarner has a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He should be pumped going against his former team.Â
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08-03-21 | Cubs v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 6-13 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
At first glance this high total may seem right with the game being played at Coors Field and a pitching matchup of Zach Davies versus Kyle Freeland.  But these two pitchers both know how to effectively pitch in Colorado.  Davies is 4-2 with a 3,38 career mark against the Rockies in seven starts. This will be his fourth start at Coors Field where he has a 2.30 ERA.  Freeland has proven himself reliable at Coors Field and he's in outstanding form with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. These starts came twice against the Dodgers and once versus the Padres. Freeland went 19 innings during this span, compiling a 14-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Freeland, a lefty, won't have to deal with the departed Javier Baez and Kris Bryant either.  The weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing in at 8 mph.Â
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08-03-21 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
The White Sox are one of the top teams thanks to a 37-18 home record. The Royals are out of contention because of a 17-34 road mark.  The White Sox also are a dominating 19-10 against lefty starters.  So I have no qualms laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line in a pitching matchup of southpaw Kris Bubic versus Dylan Cease.  Bubic, like his teammates, has performed much better at home. He's 1-4 on the road with a 7.16 away ERA. The White Sox won't lack motivation against Bubic. They just faced him five days ago in Kansas City and the Royals won, 3-2.  Bubic held the White Sox to two runs in six innings. I don't see him pitching that well again against Chicago in this quick turnaround spot and being on the road this time. Only five teams in the majors have a higher on-base percentage against lefties than the White Sox.  Cease is sixth in the American League in strikeouts. He has a 1.65 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings against Kansas City this year. He has a lifetime 3.11 ERA against the Royals in seven career starts.
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
I like the Rays, but I don't like them when Michael Wacha pitches. I like the Mariners when Chris Flexen pitches at home. Flexen is on the road.  The combination of Flexen on the road versus Wacha helps put me on the Over. Each team should be good for at least four runs. Seattle has scored 4 or more runs in eight of its last nine games.  The addition of power-hitting Nelson Cruz has made Tampa Bay more dangerous. The Rays are averaging 8.2 runs in their last four games.  Flexen isn't the same away from pitcher-friendly Seattle. He has a 5.92 road ERA compared to a 2.67 home ERA.  Wacha has a 4.79 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's a below average starter with a bad history against the Mariners - 8.25 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 12 previous innings against them. The Over has cashed the past five times the teams have played in Tropicana Field.Â
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08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -133 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The AL Central is a weak division and the Twins are the weakest team in that division. Minnesota has been bad and disappointing all season. Now the Twins are worse given their rebuilding moves at the trade deadline. Team morale had to suffer when team ace Jose Berrios was dealt.  I've been looking to fade the Twins. I successfully did in Friday's game when Griffin Jax took Berrios' spot. I passed on Saturday's matchup because I didn't trust Cardinals starter Jake Woodford. The Twins bashed Woodford in winning, 8-1. But now the Cardinals are back on safe ground pitching Adam Wainwright. The 39-year-old still is solid with a 3.51 ERA. Wainwright has a 2.70 ERA at home this season. His last start was five days ago on the road against the Indians. Wainwright beat the Indians, holding them to two runs in seven innings giving up four hits, walking two and striking out eight. Twins starter Michael Pineda has a 4.42 road ERA. He's backed by a bad bullpen. The Twins are 20-31 on the road. |
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08-01-21 | Brewers +137 v. Braves | Top | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The Braves have home field and the better starting pitcher. But that's it. The Brewers hold the rest of the edges and are a superior team. Milwaukee is 19 games above .500. Atlanta has a losing record.  The Brewers have proven themselves on the road going 33-19.  There's too much value to pass up Milwaukee here.  The pitching matchup is Brett Anderson versus Charlie Morton. Anderson has a 3.86 ERA. He's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but a very legitimate one. Anderson is more than capable of throwing five solid innings before turning things over to a very strong Brewers bullpen.  The Braves dealt for Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario to beef up their offense. Their attack, though, needed beefing up after losing Ronald Acuna to injury and Marcell Ozuna to suspension.  The right-handed Morton has a 3.72 ERA, which isn't that much lower than Anderson's. Milwaukee is 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times facing a righty starter. The Braves bullpen is slightly below average with a 4.39 ERA.Â
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08-01-21 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Neither Adbert Alzolay nor Erick Fedde has been pitching well. But I still don't see these teams combining for nine runs here after each team was gutted at the trade deadline.  Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are all gone from the Cubs. The Nationals no longer have Trea Turner.  It's rebuild time for both teams and many reserves usually play on Sunday so neither starting pitcher should be looking at a difficult lineup.  The Under is 17-7-1 in the Cubs' last 25 road contests.  Weather shouldn't factor with just a slight breeze blowing out to center.  Malachi Moore is scheduled to be the home plate umpire for only the eighth time in his big league career. The Under has cashed six of the seven times he's been behind the plate.   |
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07-31-21 | Brewers -145 v. Braves | 1-8 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
I'll lay a mid-size price to get the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff. I'm not worried about this game being in Atlanta. Milwaukee is 22-7 in its last 29 road games. The Brewers are playing well with a lot of confidence going 9-3 since All-Star break.  Woodruff has a 1.96 road ERA and 2.14 ERA on the season. He has 1.84 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Atlanta. The Brewers have a fresh Josh Hader to head their strong bullpen.  The Braves are going with rookie Kyle Muller, who is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA when pitching at home this season.  The Brewers have tremendous depth with the addition of Eduardo Escobar, who made his presence immediately felt with Milwaukee hitting a home run in the Brewers' 9-5 Friday victory against the Braves. Christian Yelich is on the injured list, but he was having a terrible season. |
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07-31-21 | Orioles -102 v. Tigers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
Matt Manning may become a good pitcher in time. But right now Manning, one of the Tigers' better pitching prospects, hasn't effectively made the big league grade. He has a losing record and a 6.00 ERA. Manning gave up four runs in five innings to the Twins during his last start.  The Tigers go against Baltimore's top pitcher, John Means.  Neither of these teams is good, but the Orioles are respectable when Means pitches. He's 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.  So given the better pitcher at this price, I'll side with the Orioles.Â
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07-31-21 | A's v. Angels UNDER 10 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
If you can't beat him, walk him. That's been the A's motto this series when facing Shohei Ohtani. It's paid off for Oakland as they have shut out the Angels in each of the first two games. Oakland can get away with this strategy because the Angels are missing three key bats - Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh.  These injuries have taken a toll. The Angels have scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of their last 12 games.  The A's, though, haven't been lighting the scoreboard on fire either. They've been held to 4 or fewer runs in six of their past seven games.  The total is high because of the pitching matchup, Cole Irvin versus Jaime Barria.  Irvin, however, has been sneaky effective with a respectable 3.62 ERA. Barria has a fat 6.23 ERA. However, he's only thrown 13 innings. Barria made his first start of the year this past Sunday and held the Twins to two runs on four hits in seven innings. His fastball topped off higher than 95 mph in that game, the fastest he's ever thrown.  There is wind blowing out to right at about 9 mph, but this is more than offset with Tripp Gibson being the projected home plate umpire. The Under is a staggering 16-4 (80 percent) in games Gibson has been the home plate umpire in this season. |
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07-30-21 | Astros v. Giants -111 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -111 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
You don't fade the Astros. You just like the other side better when the price is right. That's the case here. San Francisco has the highest winning percentage in the majors. The Giants are 33-16 at home and have their ace, Kevin Gausman, going. He's having a breakthrough season with a 9-4 record, 2.21 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 20 starts.  The Astros are going with Framber Valdez, who I like but not as much as Gausman. Prior to shutting out the punchless Rangers for six innings during his last start, Valdez has given up 11 earned runs in three prior starts spanning 15 1/3 innings.  The Giants also have the stronger bullpen with the sixth-lowest ERA in the majors. The Astros' bullpen is mediocre.Â
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07-30-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -140 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
The Twins' highly disappointing season just got worse. Minnesota dealt its best pitcher, Jose Berrios, to the Blue Jays today. Berrios was supposed to start against St. Louis. Instead the Twins will go with reliever Griffin Jax, who has a 7.48 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.  The Cardinals are hanging in going 14-10 in their last 24 games.  St. Louis is pitching veteran lefty Wade LeBlanc, who has a 3.45 ERA with the Cardinals. He's backed by Alex Reyes, who has been one of the best closers in baseball with 24 saves in 25 opportunities and a 1.93 ERA.  Minnesota has lost 25 of the past 34 times it has faced a lefty starter.
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07-30-21 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
The Orioles have the worst team ERA in the majors at 5.48. Matt Harvey has contributed to that with a 6.65 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 88 innings. These hideous numbers include Harvey inexplicably riding a string of 12 scoreless innings in a row.  I'm not counting on Harvey to throw a third straight well-pitched game. The Tigers are averaging 8.5 runs in their last four games. The Over is 22-7-1 in Detroit's last 30 games against a righty starter.  Baltimore, though, should do its share of damage against lefty Tarik Skubal, who has a 4.42 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Skubal is a good strikeout pitcher, but he gives up way too many homers - nine in 32 innings last season and 22 in 99 2/3 innings this year. Skubal yielded three homers in five innings against the Royals in his last start.  The Orioles have the second-highest batting average in the American League versus lefties. The Over has cashed 16 of the past 22 times when the Orioles have gone against a southpaw.  Weather-wise, the forecast is for wind to be blowing out to right at 7 mph. |
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07-29-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
I have little doubt the Brewers are going to beat the Pirates like they have in 28 of the previous 39 meetings. The key question is can Milwaukee win by more than one run? I certainly believe so in a pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Chad Kuhl.  The Brewers have outscored the Pirates by 13 runs in winning the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh has lost by more than one run during 16 of its last 17 losses.  Milwaukee has gotten stronger acquiring Eduardo Escobar, while the Pirates got weaker, trading All-Star Adam Frazier to the Padres.  Peralta is one of the most effective pitchers in the National League with a 2.29 ERA and 140 strikeouts in just 102 innings. He's backed by a healthy and upper tier bullpen. Kuhl is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.38 ERA. He has a 8.64 ERA in two starts against the Brewers this season.Â
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07-29-21 | Reds -116 v. Cubs | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
After a horrendous start, Luis Castillo has been one of the most effective pitchers in his last 10 starts posing a 1.71 ERA during this span. Castillo goes against a banged-up and demoralized Cubs squad that are highly likely to be sellers leading up to Friday's trade deadline. It's a dark cloud hovering above the Cubs.  Castillo should dominate again with the wind blowing in at around 14 mph and facing a Chicago lineup that could be without Javier Baez for a fourth straight day and leading hitter Nico Hoerner, who left Wednesday's game with an oblique strain. The Cubs finished Wednesday's 8-2 loss with Kris Bryant playing shortstop.  Cincinnati has fortified its vulnerable middle relief trading for Mychal Givens, Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson.  The Cubs are slated to start Alec Mills, who has a 4.55 ERA. He'l be dealing with a red-hot Joey Votto, who has homered in five consecutive games.
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07-29-21 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
There's about a 9 mph wind blowing out to right, but this is more than offset by Carolos Rodon being on the mound and this being a daytime, getaway game that often favors an Under.  Rodon is one of the better pitchers in the American League with a 2.24 ERA. The Royals are averaging 3.3 runs during the first three games of this series.  Carlos Hernandez is slated to start for Kansas City. This will be his third consecutive start after working out of the bullpen. There is an unknown element to Hernandez. But the White Sox may not have Eloy Jimenez, who left Wednesday's game with groin tightness, and they haven't been producing many runs. The White Sox are averaging only 2.4 runs during their last seven games.  This has become a real division rivalry due to the past history of the respective managers, Mike Matheny and Tony LaRussa. These are old school guys who know the importance of playing for one important run rather than gambling on a big inning. Â    |
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07-28-21 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
I can easily see both teams scoring at least four runs. The offenses are strong enough and the starting pitching matchup is weak. The Yankees' lineup is bolstered by the return of Aaron Judge from COVID-19. The Rays recently picked up Nelson Cruz. So both teams have an added power burst. Nestor Cortes is making a spot start for the Yankees. This looks like a bullpen game for New York as Cortest hasn't pitched five straight innings all season. The Yankees' bullpen has been overworked and their depth is down following a trade of relievers Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson to the Reds for a player to be named later. Cessa was having his finest season. The Yankees did this to free up money.  Michael Wacha goes for Tampa Bay. He hasn't been good with a 5.16 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
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07-27-21 | A's +144 v. Padres | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
The rebuilt Padres, sparked by superstar Fernando Tatis, are getting lots of love and attention. Not so for Oakland. Yet the A's have just one fewer loss than San Diego. I find good value with the A's here in a pitching matchup of James Kaprielian versus Chris Paddack.  Kaprielian has exceeded expectations going 5-3 with a 2.65 ERA. He has a 1.18 WHIP and has held opponents to a .202 batting average in his dozen starts. His ERA in three starts this month is 1.50.  Both teams were idle on Monday. Oakland is 11-2 following an off day. Paddack has mainly disappointed this season going 6-6 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Kaprielian has been the more consistent pitcher.Â
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07-26-21 | White Sox -122 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -122 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
The Royals are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Tigers. But now they are stepping way up in class. I consider this a low price to lay, especially given the pitching matchup of southpaws Dallas Keuchel versus Mike Minor.  The White Sox are deadly against lefties. Chicago is 19-8 versus southpaws this season. The White Sox rank in the top-six against lefties in many hitting categories, including batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage.  Boosting the White Sox power is Eloy Jimenez is expected to make his season debut after being out with a ruptured pectoral tendon sustained during spring training.  Minor has a losing record and a 5.45 ERA. Keuchel is 7-3 with a 4.22 ERA. Career-wise against the Royals, he's 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 11 starts.Â
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07-26-21 | Tigers v. Twins UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
The Tigers are a below average offensive team. They were shut out for eight innings on Sunday by Royals pitcher Daniel Lynch, who entered the game with a 15.75 ERA.  The Twins are 12th in runs and 13th in batting average. They just traded Nelson Cruz, who was leading them in homers and RBI's.  Minnesota has scored 5 or fewer runs in 10 of its last 11 games.  The total is double-digits because the pitching matchup is Matt Manning versus Michael Pineda. Manning, though, has been pitching better with a 3.29 ERA in his last three starts. Pineda held the powerful White Sox to only one run in five innings during his last start. |
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07-25-21 | Diamondbacks +156 v. Cubs | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
The Cubs have no business being this high of a favorite against any team - and that includes the Diamondbacks.  Arizona whipped Chicago, 7-3, on Saturday. That marked the Cubs' 18th loss in their last 24 games. This horrendous stretch is likely to cost them their outstanding core of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and closer Craig Kimbrel.  It's difficult for the Cubs to keep their concentration in a world of trade rumors and uncertainty.  The Diamondbacks have the stronger pitcher going, too, in a matchup of Caleb Smith versus Trevor Williams. Smith has shown flashes throughout his career. He holds a 2.78 daytime ERA. Williams has a 7.89 ERA in day games. |
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07-25-21 | Tigers -107 v. Royals | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
He's only made three starts, but the Royals' Daniel Lynch is laying claim to being the worst starter in the American League if not all of baseball.  Lynch is 0-2 with a 15.75 ERA! The lefty doesn't even have the element of surprise going for him. The Tigers saw him earlier this season for 2 2/3 innings and reached him for four runs, three of which were earned.  The Tigers were riding a season-best seven-game win streak before losing the first two games of this series. Detroit blew a 6-0 lead in losing by a run to the Royals on Saturday. So the frustrated Tigers should be focused. Detroit doesn't get much respect from the oddsmaker, but the Tigers have won six more games than the Royals.  Detroit has some decent below-the-radar pitchers. Southpaw Tarik Skubal is one such starter. He's held the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. He ranks 16th in the American League in strikeouts. Skubal is at his best in day games, too, with a 4-1 record and 3.15 ERA. The Tigers have a rested closer in Gregory Soto. He's better than any of Kansas City's relievers.  The Tigers have a winning record versus lefty starters, while the Royals are below .500 when facing southpaw starters.   |
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07-24-21 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
The Giants were flat on Friday and they paid the price losing, 6-4, to the Pirates at home.  I want the Giants going for me today in bounce back mode especially with a pitching matchup of Wil Crowe versus Kevin Gausman. This is a kill spot for San Francisco so I'll lay the 1 1/2 runs on the run line.  Gausman has been tremendous this season with a 9-3 record and 1.84 ERA. However, he's off his worst performance of the season this past Monday against the Dodgers. It was just the second time this year Gausman allowed more than two runs in a game. The weak-hitting Pirates are not the Dodgers.  The Giants should tee off on Crowe, who is 1-5 with a 6.12 ERA. I put Crowe in the lowest tier of starters.  Despite their upset win on Friday, the Pirates still have won just 26 percent of their last 85 away games. |
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07-24-21 | Nationals -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
Max Scherzer versus Matt Harvey is a mismatch of epic proportions. If it were a heavyweight fight it never would get sanctioned.  I'll get involved laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the Nationals, who will be getting their full number of at bats being the road team. The Orioles are as bad as ever with the worst home mark in the majors at 14-30, which includes a 2-9 record in their last 11 games at Camden Yards. Baltimore has lost 48 of its last 64 overall games.  Scherzer has a 2.83 ERA with a 142-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season despite enduring some rough outings in his last three starts. Those starts, however, came against the Padres twice and Dodgers. Now he's stepping way, way down in class.  Harvey is 4-10 with a 7.13 ERA, which rises to 7.90 at home. The Nationals got a look at Harvey on May 23. They liked what they saw getting to him for six runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings.   |
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07-24-21 | Diamondbacks +145 v. Cubs | 7-3 | Win | 145 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks are a joke - except when Merrill Kelly is pitching. Kelly will be taking the mound today facing Alec Mills and a disappointing Cubs team that has lost 17 of their last 23 games and expected to be sellers when the trade deadline comes up in a week.  Arizona needs to be taken seriously when Kelly pitches having won five of his past six starts. Kelly has a 2.56 ERA during his last six starts. Among the teams the Diamondbacks have defeated during Kelly's last six starts are the Giants, Padres, Brewers and Cubs.   Mills is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.64 ERA.  So the Diamondbacks hold a major starting edge while getting a nice plus price.Â
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07-23-21 | A's v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
I liked the Under a lot in Thursday's opener between these two teams. It came in as the A's won, 4-1. But there were 21 runners left on base. That bodes well for today's game going Over where Frankie Montas goes against Yusei Kikcuhi.  Montas is 8-8 with a 4.33 ERA. I consider him better than those mediocre numbers. However, he's by no means a great pitcher and his ERA in night games is 4.85.  Kikcuhi is going through his worst two-game stretch of the season giving up 12 earned runs in his last pair of starts spanning just 10 innings. He's allowed three homers during this time frame.Â
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07-23-21 | Tigers +114 v. Royals | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
When it comes to lack of respect, the late Rodney Dangerfield had nothing on the Detroit Tigers.  The Tigers haven't lost since before the All-Star break. They are on a 7-0 run. The Royals have eight fewer victories than the Tigers. Kansas City has dropped 29 of its last 39 games.  Yet the Royals opened a favorite against Detroit despite all this, including a pitching matchup that favors the Tigers.  Righthander Wily Peralta has made six starts this year for Detroit. He's surrendered zero or one earned run in five of those outings. He's 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA. The Royals have lost 71 percent of the time during their past 51 games going against a righty.  The Royals' starting staff is crippled with Danny Duffy and Brady Singer on the injured list. This has forced the Royals to turn to Kris Bubic, who has proven to be a better reliever than starter. Bubic has a 6.34 ERA in eight starts this season. Detroit has won seven of its last nine meetings against Kansas City. |
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07-23-21 | Nationals -128 v. Orioles | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -128 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
Trailing the first-place Mets by six games in the NL East, the Nationals are poised to make a move. This is their opportunity with three games against the Orioles, who have the worst home mark in the majors at 13-30.  The Nationals get to open against Jorge Lopez, one of the worst starters in baseball with a 2-12 record and 6.04 ERA. Lopez has reached the sixth inning just once in his last seven starts. The Nationals got their bad game out of the way during their last game, a 3-1 loss to the Marlins where they hit into four double plays. Prior to that, though, the hot hitting Nationals were averaging 8.8 runs during their last five games.  Washington starter Patrick Corbin had a very strong year two seasons ago. He started this year slow, but had an excellent June. This month not so good. Still, I like Corbin to get things turned around here against a Baltimore club that ranks 24th in runs and 25th in homers. |
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07-22-21 | A's v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
I don't see many runs being scored here at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park in a pitching matchup of Sean Manaea versus Chris Flexen. Flexen has been tremendous at home this season going 6-2 with a 1.76 ERA in 10 starts at T-Mobile. He faces an Oakland offense that ranks 23rd in batting and is averaging 3.2 runs in its last 11 games, discounting an eight-run performance against the hapless Rangers and Mike Foltynewicz.  Manaea has been steady all season posting a 3.28 ERA. He pitched a game against the Mariners in Seattle last month shutting out the Mariners on four hits and two walks with eight strikeouts. Manaea went the distance in that 6-0 victory.  Seattle ranks last in the majors in batting at .218.
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07-22-21 | Angels v. Twins -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
The Twins have underachieved all season. But they still rank third in the majors in homers and I can see them build off a highly-satisfying 7-2 road win against the White Sox on Wednesday.  The pitching matchup of Andrew Heaney versus Kenta Maeda is a case of two starters heading in opposite directions.  The southpaw Heaney has a 9.33 ERA during his last four starts and a 5.56 ERA on the season. Minnesota ranks second in the American League in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching.  Maeda is starting to turn around his disappointing season, giving up three earned runs in his last 16 innings for a 1.69 ERA during this span. He faces an Angels lineup devoid of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Justin Upton. The Angels have scored just five runs in their last three games and are 19-26 on the road. |
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07-21-21 | Mariners v. Rockies -135 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Back at home, fade on the road. That's the betting mantra of the Colorado Rockies.  I passed on the Rockies yesterday and they were upset at home by Seattle. I don't see a repeat of that occurring today.  Colorado is 32-20 at Coors Field. The Rockies are No. 1 in baseball in runs scored at home, while also ranking second in home batting average and third in slugging percentage in their home contests. Seattle has a losing road record.  Moreso, Colorado starter Austin Gomber has proven effective at Coors Field where he's 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA this season. Gomber is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts.  The Mariners are using this as a bullpen game. So their mediocre relief corps gets to deal with Coors Field. Chances are good that several of Seattle relievers are going to experience difficulty.Â
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07-21-21 | Mets -128 v. Reds | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a low price to get the much superior starting pitcher in a matchup of Marcus Stroman versus Jeff Hoffman. Neither bullpen is worth bragging about so starting pitching takes on added importance. Stroman is 2-to-3 levels above Hoffman, who has a 4.61 ERA and last pitched on June 26. He's been out due to a sore right shoulder. Hoffman has a 7.43 lifetime ERA against the Mets in six appearances, including four starts.  Stroman should have extra incentive after a poor performance in his last start, a 4-1 loss to the hapless Pirates this past Friday. Stroman may not have to deal with the Reds' best player, Nick Castellanos, who has just two at bats the last five days because of a sore wrist. The Mets have been highly successful playing in Cincinnati winning 16 of the past 23 times there.
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07-20-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -109 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
It's not good when your team is mentioned with the Brooklyn Superbas of 115 years ago. But that's where the Texas Rangers are right now. The Rangers have lost six in a row with the last three losses coming by a combined score of 29-0. The 1906 Superbas were the last team to lose three straight that bad while not scoring a run.  The Tigers entered the All-Star break off a three-game sweep of the Twins. Detroit stretched its win streak to four by stomping the hapless Rangers, 14-0, on Monday. The score could have been 16-0, but two Tigers were thrown out at the plate. Still, this was a season high in runs for Detroit.  It's rare for the Tigers to hold a confidence boost against any team. But this game should be a clear exception. Texas has been outscored by 44 runs during its six-game losing skid. The Rangers are one of the worst road teams in the majors having dropped 53 of their past 69 away contests.  The pitching matchup is Dane Dunning, 3-6 with a 4.22 ERA, versus Tarik Skubal, who is 5-8 with a 4.36 ERA. Skubal is a high strikeout pitcher with 105 K's in 88 2/3 innings. Detroit is 6-2 in Skubal's last eight starts. This is an action play for me, though, as I want to fade the Rangers at this low price.   Â
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07-19-21 | Mets v. Reds UNDER 10.5 | Top | 15-11 | Loss | -111 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
An outstanding hitter's park. Two lower-tier starters. Unreliable bullpens.  But no this isn't a misprint. I like Under in this Mets-Reds game with a pitching matchup of Jerad Eickhoff versus rookie Vladimir Gutierrez.  The oddsmaker knows the marketplace isn't looking to play this Under. So I find value with the total above 10.  Consider: The Mets are second-to-last in the majors in runs scored. They are 25th in homers. Francisco Lindor is out with an oblique injury. Gutierrez is off an impressive start holding the Brewers to one run on five hits in six innings. Cincinnati's bullpen has shown improvement lately. The Reds may have found a reliable closer in Heath Hembree. He has 52 strikeouts in 31 innings.  The Reds are averaging only 3.1 runs in their last seven games. Their two best hitters are Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winkler. Castellanos has missed the last two games because of a right wrist injury. He's questionable here. Winkler is in a slump batting .203 with two homers in his last 154 plate appearances. Eickhoff has seen limited duty. This will be only his second start of the season. This is an opportunity to prove he's a big league starter. He likely won't have many other chances if he doesn't pitch well here.  Weather-wise there's a cross-wind blowing at seven mph.   |
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07-18-21 | Red Sox +105 v. Yankees | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
It took Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, a series of questionable calls and a rain-shortened six inning game, but the Yankees finally beat the Red Sox. Boston had won the first seven games against the Yankees this season until New York squeaked out a 3-1 win Saturday.  This doesn't hide the fact the Red Sox have nine more wins this season than the Yankees and are the superior team especially given current conditions.  No Cole now for today's series finale. The pitching matchup is lefty Martin Perez versus Jameson Taillon. I like Perez especially on the road where he's pitched much better. But this is an action play for me.  The Yankees are reeling even with Cole's victory. It was just a band aid on what has been a lost season for New York.  New York is 24-23 at home. Boston is 28-18 on the road. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefty starters and average-to-below average hitting statistics against southpaws.  Perez is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA on the road this season. Making things worse for the Yankees is they've been hit by a COVID-19 episode costing them numerous players and coaches. Among those out are power hitters Aaron Judge and Luke Voit.  Taillon is a bottom tier starter with a 4.90 ERA that rises to 5.29 in night games. The Red Sox are 17-6 in their last 23 games against righty starters. |
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07-18-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 0-4 | Win | 101 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
If we're talking AL Cy Young Award candidates then the name Carlos Rodon can't be omitted. Rodon is showing what he can do when healthy. He's 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA - and that's not the most impressive part. He's struck out more than 36 percent of the batters he's faced while posting a career-low walk ratio. Opponents are batting .183 against him.  Rodon has dominated the Astros in his career with a 1.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six starts.  The Astros are pitching lefty Framber Valdez, who has turned around his season posting a 5-1 mark and 2.98 ERA in his last nine starts. The Under has won nine of the last 11 times the White Sox have faced a southpaw at home.  More than any other day of the week, Unders occur on Sunday when key everyday players sometimes get rested.  The wind is blowing in at eight mph and the slated home plate umpire is Scott Barry, who has a slight Under bias.Â
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07-18-21 | Rays -107 v. Braves | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm not going to overthink this one. The Rays are 54-38 while the Braves are below .500. Atlanta starter Drew Smyly has been pitching well, but I prefer the Rays' starter, Rich Hill.  Hill is 5-0 with a 1.74 ERA in nine lifetime appearances against the Braves, including seven starters.  The Braves are minus their most dynamic player, Ronald Acuna Jr. I don't think that has been fully factored into the line.  I believe the Rays will respond well to the 9-0 embarrassing drubbing they took to the Braves Saturday. |
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07-17-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 12 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
The Rockies have scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of their last 10 games. They are dealing with a COVID outbreak and worst of all they draw Walker Buehler.  Buehler is an elite force with a 9-1 record, 2.36 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He's in excellent form, too, with a 1.53 ERA in his last three starts.  Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is that rare pitcher who does better at Coors Field where his ERA is 4.58 compared to 5.48 on the season. Freeland has been pitching better, too, as he's gotten healthier. He has a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts.  |
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07-16-21 | Rays +115 v. Braves | Top | 7-6 | Win | 115 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is an action play based on value. I'm not a big fan of Michael Wacha, but the Rays have a deep and fresh bullpen. Kevin Cash isn't afraid to use his relief pitchers either.  I like Charlie Morton better than Wacha. But Morton isn't having one of his better seasons and the Rays are much superior to the Braves. Morton has a losing lifetime record against the Rays.  Tampa Bay is 16 games above .500. The Rays are 25-20 on the road and have beaten a righty starter 21 of the past 30 times. Atlanta is a below .500 team. The Braves aren't that good at home either going 24-22. They are 1-8 the past nine times they've been an interleague favorite.  The Braves are minus their superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who is out for the season with a torn ACL. |
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07-13-21 | American League v. National League UNDER 11 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Sure the game is at Coors Field. But I can't recall an All-Star Game with a total this high. Only once in the last 14 All-Star Games have there been more than nine runs scored.  Coors Field shouldn't be given that much credit for such a high total given the caliber of pitchers, especially the many high strikeout ones, including four of the top six league-leaders, along with a number of dominant, high strikeout closers.  The All-Star Game was last played in 2019. The American League won, 4-3. AL pitchers struck out 16 batters.  The three best players in baseball are Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Trout. Only Tatis will be playing.  A possible key is German Marquez. He doesn't have the fame like some of these other All-Star pitchers, but I hope he gets to pitch more than one inning. He's one of the hottest pitchers in the big leagues giving up just three earned runs in his last four starts spanning 29 innings. He's also experienced pitching at Coors Field where he's 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA there. |
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07-11-21 | A's -143 v. Rangers | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Cheap price for the A's to lay here with All-Star Chris Bassitt against southpaw Kolby Allard and a Texas team that has the second-worst record in the American League.  Bassitt, who is 9-2, has allowed just two runs in his last three starts against Texas spanning 20 innings. The Rangers have lost 40 of the past 56 times when going against a righty starter. Allard is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 4.67 ERA during this time span. He faced Oakland twice in June and gave up seven runs in 12 innings.  Oakland is 44-17 in its last 61 road games against a lefty starter.Â
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07-11-21 | Reds v. Brewers -155 | 3-1 | Loss | -155 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Luis Castillo has been pitching better, but he still doesn't compare to Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers also hold a monster bullpen edge, which they won't hesitate to use if needed due to this being the last game before the All-Star break.  Castillo has 10 losses, the most in the majors. He's been a huge disappointment for much of the year.  Woodruff has been tremendous with a 2.10 ERA. The Brewers are 27-19 at home and getting unexpected power from their middle infield of Willy Adams and Luis Urias.   |
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07-11-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker has priced this game a run too high in my view given a pitching matchup of Aaron Nola versus Nick Pivetta.  Nolan is a proven ace. His 4.53 ERA seems high, but judging by various metrics he's pitched better than that having had some bad luck.  Nick Pivetta can be hit-or-miss. He's been solid most of the season, though, and certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team. He's off a brilliant start shutting out the A's in seven innings with 10 strikeouts in a 1-0 victory a week ago. This is the final game before the All-Star break so both managers won't be afraid to employ their best relievers for multiple innings if needed.   |
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07-10-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
We know T-Mobile Park, formerly Safeco Field, is one of the best pitching parks in the majors. Put the right pitching matchup there, take out some key bats and you have the ingredients for an Under if the total isn't quite right. The oddsmaker believes this total is right given that the starting pitchers are Patrick Sandoval versus Chris Flexen. Those pitchers certainly don't move the needle. But they should in this game. Flexen is brilliant when pitching at T-Mobile with a 5-2 record and 1.99 ERA in nine home starts. He gets to face an Angel lineup that is minus Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Justin Upton. The lefthanded Sandoval went against the Mariners a month ago and held them to two earned runs in six innings with 10 strikeouts. Seattle ranks last in the majors in on-base percentage against southpaws and is second-to-last in batting versus lefties. Kerwin Danley is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed 66 percent of the time he's been behind the plate the past 32 times.    |
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07-09-21 | A's -131 v. Rangers | 2-3 | Loss | -131 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
The A's haven't been playing that well lately, but they are off a huge, 2-1, road win against the Astros Thursday and now are stepping way down in class.  I see the A's riding some momentum against a Rangers squad that is 19 games below .500 and is at a huge disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup.  It's Cole Irvin versus journeyman Jordan Lyles. Irvin is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last six starts. The A's are 6-0 during these starts.  Lyles is having another Lyles' type season with a losing record and 4.98 ERA. His ERA is 5.14 at home and 5.55 during night games.  |
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07-09-21 | White Sox -130 v. Orioles | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
Dallas Keuchel is past his prime. That's a given. But this line still is way too short.  The Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games. They are terrible and they have a terrible pitcher going in righty Jorge Lopez. He's 2-11 with a 6.02 ERA. The White Sox terrorize lefties, but they also are 7-2 in their last nine games versus righthanders. The White Sox have the fifth-highest batting average in the majors and also have scored the fifth-most runs per game.  Lopez has a 5.48 career ERA versus the White Sox in four games, including three starts. Keuchel has a 3.23 career ERA against Baltimore in nine starts. The White Sox have won the last five games between the two teams. |
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07-08-21 | Phillies v. Cubs -101 | 8-0 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
The Cubs snapped their hideous 11-game losing streak, beating the Phillies, 8-3, on Wednesday. The Cubs did it by lighting up Zach Wheeler for five runs in the first two innings. Wheeler entered the matchup with a 1.15 ERA in his last six starts.  This was an impressive victory for the Cubs and I believe they'll ride this momentum and beat the Phillies again.  Chicago is 27-15 at home. Philadelphia is 17-27 on the road. I also like the Cubs' starter, Adbert Alzolay, more than the Phillies starter, Zach Eflin. Alzolay has a 1.08 WHIP. The Cubs have the superior closer by far in Craig Kimbrel. |
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07-08-21 | Royals v. Indians -126 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
Home field matters here. The Royals have lost 24 of their last 31 road games. The Indians have done the job as home favorites winning 40 of the last 58 times in that role. I see that pattern continuing in a pitching matchup of Danny Duffy versus Zach Plesac.  The veteran Duffy is due for regression with a 2.60 ERA. Duffy's ERA's the previous three years are 4.95, 4.34 and 4.88.  Plesac went 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA in eight starts last year. He's healthy now and should improve on a 4.14 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Cleveland has the more reliable bullpen.  The Indians have won the last five in this series.Â
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07-07-21 | A's +140 v. Astros | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm attracted to getting a mid-size plus price with a very good Oakland team that is pitching reliable Sean Manaea.  Manaea has a 3.13 ERA, which shrinks a little to 3.05 in seven road starts. He has a lifetime 1.85 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven career starts at Houston. He can be counted on to provide the A's with a strong effort and he's backed by one of the better bullpens.  The Astros are countering with rookie Luis Garcia, who has strong overall numbers with a 3.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Garcia, however, has allowed six earned runs during his past two starts spanning 10 innings. He's given up a combined 15 hits/walks in this time frame.  This isn't so much a fade on the Astros as it is a value play on Oakland.  |
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07-07-21 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
I could start and end this handicap with two words: Matt Harvey. But there's more than just Harvey as to why this should be a higher-scoring game than the oddsmaker believes.  Harvey, though, always is a great place to start. He hasn't been good in six years. Yet, somehow, he still keeps getting shots in a big league rotation. It should be just a matter of time before the Orioles pull the plug on Harvey, who is 3-9 with a 7.34 ERA. That ERA gets even worse at 9.15 if you go by just his last five stars. The Blue Jays are the most dangerous offensive team in baseball ranking either first or second in batting average, runs and homers. They have scored 5 or more runs in nine of their last 11 games.   The Orioles, though, should do their share of damage. They've produced 5 or more runs in six of their last seven games.   Toronto is going with its ace, Hyun-Jin Ryu. The lefty has been cold, though, with a 5.35 ERA in his last six starts. The Orioles are batting .275 versus southpaws, second-highest in the American League. They also have the league's third-highest slugging percentage against lefties.   Neither pitcher is going to be helped by the wind blowing out to center at 10 mph.  The Under has won just twice during the last 11 meetings between the teams at hitter-friendly Camden Yards.       |
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07-06-21 | Rockies +108 v. Diamondbacks | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
If there is one team the Rockies can beat on the road it's the Diamondbacks, losers of 50 of their last 58 games and owners of the worst record in baseball.  Colorado has the worst road record in baseball. However, Arizona has the lowest home percentage mark with a 13-27 record at Chase Field.  The pitching matchup and bullpen favor Colorado with Jon Gray opposing Merrill Kelly. Gray is 5-6 with a 3.89 ERA. He's pitched well in two starts since returning from the injured list giving up two runs in 11 innings with 15 strikeouts.  Kelly is 5-7 with a 4.67 ERA. He is 1-3 with a 7.06 ERA in five career starts versus the Rockies. The Diamondbacks have a terrible bullpen with a 5.23 ERA.  Closer Daniel Bard has solidified Colorado's backend relief corps.  |
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07-05-21 | Brewers -148 v. Mets | 2-4 | Loss | -148 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
Once you get past Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman, the Mets are extremely weak and vulnerable in their starting pitching rotation due to injuries. Because of four other starting pitchers being out, the Mets are forced to go with rookie Tylor Megill in their rotation for the time being.  Megill, who has a 4.82 ERA, is making just his third big league start. He faces one of the top pitchers in the NL, Brandon Woodruff, who has a 1.87 ERA. Woodruff has faced the Mets twice before going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA.  The Brewers are 11-1 in their last 12 games. They have beaten the Mets in eight of their past nine meetings.  Milwaukee has the fresher bullpen catching the Mets off a Sunday doubleheader against the Yankees in their heated subway rivalry. |
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07-05-21 | White Sox -111 v. Twins | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The White Sox are 8-1 against the Twins this season. Chicago just swept three games from Minnesota last week at home. One of those games was a 13-3 victory when the pitching matchup was Dylan Cease versus Bailey Ober.  Cease gave up two runs on three hits in six innings during that victory with seven strikeouts. The Twins' run came on homers by Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson. Both of those players didn't play yesterday because of injuries so their status is questionable. Cease is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA. Ober is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA.  The White Sox are 49-34. The Twins are 34-48. This is a clear mismatch. Getting the White Sox at this price is cheap. |
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07-05-21 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | 1-11 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
The last time Max Fried took the mound the Braves won, 20-2, against the Mets five days ago. I doubt the Braves win by 18 runs again - although they are playing the Pirates so it's possible - but I do expect them to win by more than a run.  Each of the Pirates' last six losses have been by multiple runs. Pittsburgh has scored the grand total of 10 runs in its last seven games! It's no wonder the Pirates rank last in the majors in runs and homers.  Fried started slow, but he's a quality starter and is rounding into shape. He has a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.  The same can't be said for Pittsburgh starter Chase DeJong, who is 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA. That ERA swells to 6.59 if you take DeJong's last three starts.  Atlanta has taken seven of the last eight games from Pittsburgh. |
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07-04-21 | Red Sox v. A's -106 | 1-0 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
This has been an exciting series. I rate the A's, though, a stronger edge at home than what the opening line is.  The Red Sox have won 43 of 61 games versus non-AL West teams. But against AL West foes they are 9-14. Boston traditionally has trouble playing in Oakland like many other teams do.  The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta versus James Kaprielian. Pivetta has a 4.43 ERA and a much higher WHIP than Kaprielian, who has a 3.06 ERA and has given up two or fewer runs in six of his nine starts.  Pivetta hasn't won since May 26. He has a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts and has surrendered eight homers during his past four starts. Â   |
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07-04-21 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 9 | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm not overly fond of playing Overs on a Sunday when reserves start more than any other day of the week. But these teams have deep hitting lineups and the pitching matchup is bad.  Blake Snell is a good pitcher - when he's at Petco Park. He's been a disaster on the road with a 10.36 ERA and 2.23 WHIP. Foes are batting .328 against Snell on the road. I'm not a fan of Phillies starter Vince Velasquez. He's at his worst, too, in day games with a 7.23 ERA. It's not just this season. He has a career 5.40 ERA in day action. Velasquez can't expect to be bailed out either by a disappointing Phillies bullpen.  The weather conditions are fine with a slight wind blowing out to right. |
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07-04-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
Here's my coat and hat. I've arrived at the go-against the Pirates party.  Milwaukee has won 11 in a row, including outscoring the Pirates by 19 runs during the first three games of this series.  Pittsburgh has lost six in a row, with all of the defeats being by more than one run.  It's easy to envision another lopsided Brewers win here in a pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Tyler Anderson. The Brewers are 11-4 in Peralta's 15 starts. Here's why. Peralta has a 2.17 ERA, which shrinks to 1.47 during his last nine starts. He's one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball with 122 k's in 87 innings.  Anderson, a lefty, is 3-8 with a 4.75 ERA. He's lost six of his past seven starts. Milwaukee is 8-1 the past nine times going against a southpaw starter.   |
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07-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies -101 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
It can be a cliche to call a below-average, well-traveled pitcher a journeyman. In the case of southpaw Wade LeBlanc it's not a cliche. It's a fact. LeBlanc has shown up with the Cardinals this year. It's his 10th different team in 10 years.  There are worse spot starters in the big leagues. But it's not exactly a plus if LeBlanc is in your starting rotation.  LeBlanc and his hefty 5.60 ERA get the start here - at Coors Field. LeBlanc has pitched better for the Cardinals after posting a 9.45 ERA with the Orioles, who waived him because of that. But he's still Wade LeBlanc and he has a horrid history at Coors Field with an 8.54 ERA in six appearances, including five starts.  Colorado is an entirely different team at home, winners of 19 of its last 26 games at Coors Field. The Rockies lead the National League in batting at home and also are No. 1 in the National League in hitting versus lefties.  Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is rounding into shape allowing only one run with 14 strikekouts and two walks during his last 11 innings.  The Cardinals aren't likely to have ace closer Alex Reyes after he pitched two innings on Friday. The Rockies' best reliever, closer Daniel Bard, did not pitch yesterday.    |
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07-03-21 | Red Sox v. A's -127 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Whether it's physical, mental or both, some pitchers are having trouble dealing with MLB's crackdown on foreign substances. Garrett Richards is one such pitcher.  Richards is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA during his last seven starts. He is 2-3 lifetime when pitching at Oakland with a 4.35 ERA during a span of 51 2/3 innings.  The A's are tough at home and rate a pitching edge with Cole Irvin, who is coming off an unbeaten June and just beat the Giants this past Sunday. Irvin hurled eight shutout innings against the Giants while giving up just three hits and two walks with eight strikeouts.  Oakland has won seven of its last 10 home games. The Red Sox are hot, but still have lost four of their last seven road games.    |
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07-02-21 | Red Sox v. A's -101 | 3-2 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
History is littered with strong AL East teams on a roll flying cross-country after a successful homestand only to encounter trouble in Oakland.  This should be another example. Boston is riding a seven-game win streak. All of those victories came at Fenway Park. Now the Red Sox visit Oakland, a place where they have lost 70 percent of the time during their past 56 games there. It's Boston's first road game in eight days. The Red Sox are 2-4 in their past six away contests. Oakland is tough at home again this season. The A's have won seven of their past nine home games and have a pitching edge with Eduardo Rodriguez facing Frankie Montas. Rodriguez has a 5.83 ERA in 15 starts. His career mark versus the A's is 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA.  Montas has been solid in all but four of his 16 starts, holding opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer 12 times. He has a 1.13 career ERA versus the Red Sox in three appearances.Â
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07-02-21 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 10.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
I know, a pitching matchup of J.A. Happ versus Brady Singer inspires little confidence that a low-scoring game will be taking place.  But because of that the oddsmaker has set too high of a total on this Twins-Royals matchup. I don't see these teams combining for double-digits runs here. Happ pitched well in his last start holding the Indians to two runs in six innings. Cleveland isn't a strong offensive team, but neither is Kansas City.  The Royals rank 24th in runs and 25th in homers. They have scored 2 or fewer runs in four of their last six games. Kansas City is missing a pair of key offensive cogs in Andrew Benintendi and Adalberto Mondesi.  Singer is a promising starter, who is going through growing pains with a 3-6 record and 4.70 ERA. Singer has been respectable in two starts versus Minnesota this season giving up three runs in 7 2/3 innings. The Over has won just three out of the last 15 times the teams have met in Kansas City. |
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07-01-21 | Giants -136 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -136 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Giants minus $1.36 at Diamondbacks  The Giants haven't lost four in a row all season. I certainly don't see it happening here.  Despite their three-game losing streak, the Giants have the best record in baseball at 50-29. Arizona has the worst mark at 22-60. The Diamondbacks are a mind-boggling 2-24 in their last 26 games!  San Francisco has dominated Arizona winning the past 10 meetings. The pitching matchup is Johnny Cueto versus Merrill Kelly. Cueto is 6-3 with a 3.63 ERA. Kelly is 4-7 with a 4.73 ERA. The Giants hold a big bullpen edge.  San Francisco has hit the second-most homers in the majors. The Diamondbacks have hit the second-fewest homers in the majors.  Arizona also is down two of its best players with Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly injured.
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07-01-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies +110 | 2-5 | Win | 110 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Fade the Rockies on the road, play on them at home. As I wrote yesterday in picking Colorado to beat the Pirates, there is no team more Jekyll/Hyde with their home/road splits than the Rockies.  Losers of 31 of 37 road games, the Rockies are 28-16 at Coors Field while leading the league in home batting average.  So I'm interested whenever I see Colorado as a home 'dog, which is the case here.  Maybe it's name recognition why the oddsmaker opened St. Louis the favorite since the pitching matchup is Adam Wainwright versus Antonio Senzatela.  Wainwright isn't nearly the star he once was and he's pitched poorly on the road with a 2-2 record, 6.31 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to use their star closer either as Alex Reyes has thrown 47 pitches during the last two days.  St. Louis has lost nine of its last 10 road contests. The Rockies are 12-2 during their last 14 home games going against a righty starter.  Senzatela is that rare pitcher who has fared better at Coors Field where he has a 3.91 ERA on the season. He's facing a St. Louis lineup that has scored 3 or fewer runs in seven of its last 10 games. St. Louis also is 6-15 in its last 21 games versus a righty starter. |
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06-30-21 | Twins v. White Sox -123 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
The price is low enough to back the superior White Sox at home against the highly disappointing Twins. Chicago is 29-14 at home.  The pitching matchup is rookie Bailey Ober versus Dylan Cease.  Ober has made five big league starts. He gave up four runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Reds during his previous start eight days ago. Ober doesn't pitch deep into games and is prone to giving up homers. He's gone five innings just once and has surrendered four homers in 21 1/3 innings. He has a 4.64 ERA. The White Sox faced him May 18 and got to him for four runs in four innings.  The White Sox, who rank in the top nine in runs and batting average, hit two homers of Ober. Cease is enjoying a breakout season in this his third year. He's 6-3 with a 3.81 ERA. His metrics are improved across the board. Â
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06-30-21 | Mets v. Braves -143 | 2-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Because of a slow start and being injured, Max Fried is undervalued. Fried, though, was pitching well before going on the injured list. He's set to start for Atlanta today. Fried is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 2.73 ERA in 14 appearances against the Mets spanning 56 innings. Current Mets are batting .178 against Fried lifetime.  Fried started turning his season around during the middle of last month. He's had quality outings in six of his last seven starts.  The Mets are going with David Peterson, who is 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA. Peterson is 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA during his last three road starts.Â
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06-29-21 | Twins v. White Sox -129 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
Minnesota has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball with a 33-43 mark. They are the third-largest money burner based on closing lines.  The White Sox are 28-14 at home. They have a pitching edge and caught a break with Monday's postponement. Now the White Sox should have Jose Abreu back in the lineup while star closer Liam Hendriks will be available after throwing a combined 29 pitches in appearances this past weekend.  The starting pitching matchup is Kenta Maeda versus Lucas Giolito. Maeda has a 4.85 ERA, but has been pitching better lately. Still, he's nowhere near his Cy Young Award runner-up form of last season. Maeda was supposed to start three days ago, but two rainouts have pushed back his start all the way until today. So his routine could be off.  Giolito faced the Twins once this season. That came on May 19 and he was dominant. Giolito held the Twins to one run on two hits in eight innings with 11 strikeouts and three walks. Giolito has a 3.35 home ERA this year. The White Sox have defeated the Twins in six of the past seven meetings. |
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06-27-21 | Yankees -150 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Divisions aren't determined by a single June gme. But this may be the Yankees' most important game of the season. New York is 0-5 versus Boston this season, outplayed in every game. The Yankees trail the Rays by six games in the AL East.  The Yankees need to beat Boston and they're in great position to accomplish that with a pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole against Eduardo Rodriguez. It's a mid-size lay price, but I find value since I would make the Yankees nearly a 2-to-1 favorite to win this game.   Cole continues to live up to his huge contract and superstar status. He's 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. His 123 strikeouts through 15 starts are the most in Yankee history of any pitcher's first 15 starts.  Rodriguez, on the other hand, is enduring his worst season. He has a 6.07 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. I don't know if he's fully healthy. He hasn't been good all year and his current form is even worse than his season numbers - an 0-4 record and 7.94 ERA during his last eight games. Opponents are batting .325 against him during this span.    |
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06-26-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -124 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
This is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. It's such a mismatch I feel very confident laying 1 1/2 runs with the Padres at home.  San Diego is that good with eight straight victories and arguably the best and most exciting player in the game, Fernando Tatis.  Arizona is that bad with 24 straight road losses and 1-20 record during its past 21 overall games. The Diamondbacks are 3-34 in their last 37 games.  The pitching matchup and bullpen greatly favor the Padres, too.  Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has a 5.06 ERA. Padres starter Dinelson Lamet has a 2.81 ERA and is rounding into shape pitching deeper into games. He has electrifying stuff.
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06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox -1.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Seattle southpaw Yusei Kikuchi is pitching better than he ever has in the majors with a 4-3 record and 3.46 ERA. However, he can't compare to White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon, who is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA. Rodon has a 1.42 ERA in three starts this month and has a 1.50 ERA in four career starts versus Seattle.  Kikuchi also has to face a team that mashes lefties. The White Sox rank either second or third against lefties in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 30-6 versus southpaw since the start of last season.  Kikuchi has a lifetime 11.05 ERA against the White Sox in two starts.  Seattle is 15-21 on the road. They rank second-to-last in batting average and also second-to-last in hitting when going against lefties.  The White Sox have been an elite home team going 27-12, including 7-3 this month at Guaranteed Rate Field. |
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06-25-21 | Indians +119 v. Twins | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The 31-43 Twins have been one of the biggest disappointments this season not only to their fans, but also to their bettors. They are the third-biggest money burner in MLB.  So I don't get them being favored in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Danny Coulombe.  Quantrill has pitched better than his 0-2 record with a 2.74 ERA. He blanked the Pirates for five innings in his last start giving up three hits this past Saturday.  The best thing you can say about Coulombe is he's not Randy Dobnak, who was scheduled to start. Dobnak, who is 1-6 with a 7.83 ERA, was scratched because of injury. So Coulombe will be making his first major league start. He's been around the majors since 2014. The Twins are his third team. He's thrown only 2 2/3 innings this season giving up two hits and three walks.  The Indians hold a major bullpen advantage. Cleveland has won seven of the last nine times it has been a road 'dog. |
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06-23-21 | Rockies v. Mariners +103 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Terrors at Coors Field, meek as a lamb on the road. That's your 2021 Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies are 5-28 away this season. It's a record they've earned with their league-low .199 road batting average. Colorado is averaging 1.8 runs during its last 17 road contests.  The Rockies needed to be faded on the road - and that's what I'm doing here in a pitching matchup of German Marquez versus Justus Sheffield.  It looks like Colorado has a pitching edge - on the surface. Marquez has 4.26 ERA. Sheffiled's ERA is 5.65. Marquez, however, is that rare pitcher who does better at Coors Field. He's 0-5 on the road with a 5.74 ERA.  Sheffield is better at home where he's 4-2 with a 4.96 ERA. Sheffield faced the Rockies once before. That was last year and he beat them by throwing six scoreless innings.  |
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06-23-21 | Cardinals -120 v. Tigers | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Injuries to Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull have forced the Tigers to call up Matt Manning. He's Detroit's top pitching prospect. However, Manning's time hasn't come yet. He's being rushed to the lineup too far ahead of schedule. Manning still was learning the ropes in Triple-A where he had an 8.07 ERA for Toledo while surrendering 11 homers in 32 1/3 innings.  This will be Manning's second big league start. He pitched five innings against the Angels this past Thursday giving up two runs on four hits in five innings. Now the Cardinals have a first-hand scouting report on Manning. They know for instance that he threw 70 percent fastball against the Angels. It's hard to rely solely on just one pitch in the big leagues.  John Gant goes for St. Louis. He has a respectable 3.50 ERA and a 2.08 lifetime ERA against the Tigers in three appearances, including one start.  The Cardinals own a huge bullpen edge especially at closer with Alex Reyes, who has 17 saves and a 0.82 ERA. |
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06-22-21 | Giants +116 v. Angels | Top | 5-0 | Win | 116 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
Anthony DeSclafani is underrated. Just like his team, the Giants. San Francisco has the best record in baseball. The Angels are a .500 club and without their best player, Mike Trout.  DeSclafani is 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA. He's 3-0 in his past three starts with a 1.35 ERA during this time span. Angels starter Andrew Heaney has been inconsistent his entire career and he's been inconsistent against this season. Heaney has a 6.75 ERA in two career starts versus San Francisco.  The more reliable pitcher is DeSclafani and the Giants are much the superior team. So I'll gladly accept a plus price with them.  The Giants have won 13 of their last 17 road contests. They were idle on Monday so their bullpen is rested. The Giants have won each of the past seven times following a day off. |
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06-22-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -110 | 9-5 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
First the bad news. Tampa Bay has lost six in a row. Now the good news. All of those defeats were on the road. The Rays are back home for the start of this series. Tampa Bay has won 69 percent of its last 94 games at quirky Tropicana Field. The Rays square off against Eduardo Rodriguez, who is having a terrible season with a 6.21 ERA. Opponents have reached Rodriguez for at least four runs in six of his past seven starts. Rodriguez is 1-3 lifetime versus the Rays with a 5.44 ERA.  The Rays are going with the two-headed monster of Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Yarbrough. Kittredge has a 1.34 ERA and is expected to get the start. He has a 2.53 career ERA versus Boston in 15 appearances. Yarbrough, who is expected to take over during the middle innings, has a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three appearances spanning 21 1/3 innings.Â
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06-21-21 | Brewers -123 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -123 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
If the Diamondbacks aren't on your autofade list they certainly should be especially when the lay price is manageable like this one.  Arizona has lost 17 in a row! The Diamondbacks are 2-30 in their last 32 games! Shades of the 1899 Cleveland Spiders.  The Brewers enter this matchup going with Brett Anderson and with a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen. Anderson has a 4.24 ERA, which is still better than Arizona starter Merrill Kelly's 5.40 ERA.  Anderson is coming off a magnificent start against the Reds, a much stronger offensive team than the Diamondbacks. Anderson held the Reds to no runs in seven innings allowing only one hit, one walk and striking out nine this past Tuesday.  The Diamondbacks will be missing catcher Carson Kelly, who ranked third on the team in homers and RBI's. He suffered a broken wrist against the Dodgers two days ago.  |
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06-21-21 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
Globe Life Field is a huge pitcher's park. Given a pitching matchup of Frankie Montas versus the weak-hitting Rangers and Kyle Gibson starting for Texas, Under is the way to go in this game.  Montas has proven reliable and steady. He has a 3.07 ERA during his last seven starts. He's backed by a solid A's bullpen.  Gibson is enjoying his breakthrough season. He has a 2.09 ERA. He's held 11 of his 13 opponents to two runs or fewer. The Rangers' bullpen is bad, but they do have closer Ian Kennedy back from IL.Â
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