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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-29-18 | Cubs -115 v. Pirates | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
This is a short price to get the much superior Cubs here with a much superior pitching advantage. Jon Lester is having another strong season posting a 1.69 ERA in his last seven starts. He hasn't surrendered more than two runs in each of his last five starts. The Pirates are going with rookie Nick Kingham to fill in for injured Ivan Nova. The Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 games and have bullpen issues.Â
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05-28-18 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
This total is too high given the lack of scoring from both teams. Minnesota has scored only six runs in its last four games. The Twins have scored four or fewer runs in 11 of their past 13 games. The Under has cashed in the Twins' last six games. The Royals haven't scored more than five runs in 14 of their last 15 games.Â
Royals starter Jakob Junis is below-the-radar and Lance Lynn is showing signs of rounding into shape. He's off his best game of the season blanking the Tigers on five hits for 6 2/3 innings this past Tuesday. |
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05-28-18 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
I don't think it's too difficult for each of these teams to put up at least four runs given a starting pitching matchup of rookies Caleb Smith against Eric Lauer. Smith has pitched some good games, but is weaker on the road where his ERA is 4.18. The Marlins have given up 18 runs in their last three games and have a weak bullpen.  Lauer probably shouldn't be in a major league rotation. He's made six big league starts and has a 6.67 ERA.Â
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05-28-18 | Rays +127 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 127 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
The buy sign is on with Chris Archer, who has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. I'll take him at a 'dog price against journeyman Trevor Cahill, who is coming off a season high 102 pitches in his last game.  Oakland has been struggling with its best power hitter, Khris Davis, on the DL managing to average only two runs per game during its past six games.  Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven away games.Â
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05-28-18 | Mets -121 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Jacob deGrom is right up there with the best pitchers in baseball. He's 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and is in dominant form giving up only one run in his last 33 1/3 innings. He has 29 strikeouts in his last 19 innings. Lifetime, deGrom has a 1.89 ERA versus the Braves in 13 starts.  So it's easy to back deGrom especially going against Max Fried, who has a 6.00 ERA in relief and will be making his first start of the season. This could end up being a bullpen game for the Braves.  Atlanta's focus could be off for several reasons. The Braves has been on the road for the past six games, are off a huge upset win against Chris Sale and their star rookie outfielder, Ronald Acuna Jr., suffered a scary leg injury on Sunday. His status won't be determined until today.Â
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05-27-18 | Diamondbacks -102 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Frankie Montas is slated to make his first big league appearance of the season today starting against the Diamondbacks. This will be just his third start in the majors.  The Diamondbacks are struggling, but I'm not buying this line. Zack Greinke still is an elite pitcher.  Greinke is pitching on extra rest, too. Arizona is 12-4 the past 16 times he has pitched on five days rest.  The A's can be tough at home. I recognize this. But they aren't some super power. They don't steal bases, are bad defensively, their bullpen is down a key setup man and their top slugger, Khris Davis, is out.Â
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05-26-18 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
The Dodgers have started to play better, but they are four games below .500. This is because they are just 12-20 against righthanded starters, including 1-7 during their past eight home games against a righy starter.  I believe Jordan Lyles can hang with Alex Wood especially with the Padres taking 1 1/2 runs in a game projected to have fewer than eight runs scored. Lyles has posted a 2.50 ERA in three starts this season. San Diego is 2-0 during his last two starts.  If given 1 1/2 runs, the Padres would be 13-6 in their last 19 games. |
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05-26-18 | Twins +132 v. Mariners | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm going to take this 'dog price with a hot Jake Odorizzi against 33-year-old journeyman Wade LeBlanc.  Odorizzi has a 1.08 ERA in his last three starts. The Twins just got back Miguel Sano, their best power hitter, from injury and have won nine of the past 13 times in Seattle.  I will say LeBlanc has pitched well since joining the starting rotation. But he's never been able to achieve consistency. The Mariners are the seventh team he's pitched for since 2011. Regression to the norm is overdue.  The Mariners are scraping for runs averaging 2.4 during their past five games. They are without injured Dee Gordon and Robinson Cano.Â
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05-25-18 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The Brewers have been shut out nine times this season. That's the most in the majors. It wouldn't shock me if they were shut out for a 10th time in this spot going against Noah Syndergaard.  Discount a nine-run game against the Diamondbacks and Milwaukee has scored six runs in its last four games. Syndergaard is healthy and an absolute monster. He's allowed three runs or fewer during each of his past nine starts. He has a 0.49 ERA in three career starts versus the Brewers.  Brewers starter Junior Guerra is a late bloomer, who has settled into being a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. He has a 3.02 career ERA at home and is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball with the top arms all fresh. Guerra has allowed only one run in 12 3/3 innings lifetime against the Mets. The Mets' offense is way down minus injured Yoenis Cespedes, their most feared bat, and Todd Frazier. New York has been held to three runs or fewer in nine of its last 13 games.  There's a good chance, too, that the roof is closed at Miller Park because of the threat of rain. That would be an added plus for the pitchers. Â
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05-23-18 | Pirates -113 v. Reds | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
If the price is low enough - like it is here - I'll stand in line to fade Homer Bailey.  Pirates starter Chad Kuhl is bottom of the rotation material. But Bailey shouldn't even be in the big leagues anymore. He's living off a couple of no-hitters. Bailey has been bad for several years now and he's getting worse with a 6.11 ERA. He's allowed nine earned runs and 20 hits in his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings.  Cincinnati has lost 17 of Bailey's last 21 starts. Homer-friendly Great American Ball Park is a very bad fit for Bailey, a flyball pitcher.  Kuhl has a history of pitching better on the road than at home and the Pirates hold a bullpen edge. |
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05-22-18 | Marlins v. Mets -110 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
The Marlins have lost three in a row and still reeling from blowing a huge lead against the Braves this past Sunday when Atlanta scored six runs in the ninth.That was a devastating loss for such a young team.  The Mets are playing much better having won four in a row.  Caleb Smith is 1-3 with a 5.29 road ERA while Mets starter Zach Wheeler has a strong history against the Marlins with a 3- record and 2.15 ERA in eight starts.Â
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05-21-18 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Brewers | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
The lay price is low enough to back Zach Greinke, who still is an elite pitcher and in great form with a 1.45 ERA during his last three starts.  Chase Anderson is due to come off the DL to pitch for Milwaukee. He hasn't pitched as well as he did last season and isn't in good form having allowed nine runs in his last 10 2/3 innings. What's worrisome about Anderson is he's surrendered 10 homers already in 45 1/3 innings. The Diamondbacks know Anderson well, too, since he pitched for them in 2014 and 2015.Â
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05-20-18 | Indians +124 v. Astros | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
It's not often you get Carlos Carrasco as an underdog. So I'm going to take advantage of this rarity.  I like Lance McCullers Jr. But the Astros are 2-5 in his last seven home starts and he's trumped in my pitcher ratings by Carrasco.  The Indians have won 69 percent of Carrasco's last 51 road starts. Carrasco has a strong history versus Houston and is pitching on extra rest. Cleveland is 16-5 the past 21 times Carrasco has pitched on five days rest.  Carrasco is 3-1 career-wise against the Astros with a 2.67 ERA. He is 2-0 and unscored upon in the two games he's pitched at Minute Maid Park.  The Indians have scored five or more runs in seven of their last 10 games. They've scored six or more runs in six of their last nine games.Â
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05-19-18 | Brewers v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Baseball is still finding out about Freddy Peralta and Fernando Romero. These young pitchers have been dominant. Peralta made his big league debut a memorable one this past Sunday striking out 13 Rockies in 5 2/3 innings in a 7-3 victory. Peralta yieled just one hit and two walks while holding Colorado scoreless. That was at Coors Field, too, the premier hitter's park.  The Twins certainly aren't familiar with Peralta. They're down two key bats with Miguel Sano out and Joe Mauer not likely to play either after getting injured on Friday.  Romero has made three starts spanning 16 2/3 innings. He's surrendered one earned run and has 20 strikeouts.The Brewers are missing key bats, too, with Ryan Braun and Eric Thames out.   Both pitchers catch a weather break as the wind will be blowing in at 13-14 mph.Â
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05-18-18 | A's v. Blue Jays -114 | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Playing on unfamiliar Astroturf has something to do with it, but Oakland just doesn't fare well at Rogers Centre when playing the Blue Jays on the road. The A's beat the Blue Jays for just the second time in the last 14 games in Toronto last night. I don't see the A's repeating that in a pitching matchup of Brett Anderson versus Marco Estrada. Oakland is 7-19 in its last 26 games on Astroturf. Estrada is pitching on an extra day of rest. Toronto is 9-3 the past 12 times Estrada has thrown on five days rest.  I've lost all hope with Anderson. He's too brittle and inconsistent. This marks his fourth start of the season. He's been a tease and sure enough he looked good in his first start. However, he's 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA during his last two starts. The Blue Jays know him well since Anderson made seven starts with Toronto last season compiling a 5.13 ERA.Â
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05-16-18 | Indians -1.5 v. Tigers | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Trevor Bauer has had six quality outings in his last seven starts. I regard him as a "B" level pitcher. He's facing a Tigers lineup that is missing three regulars - Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario and Leonys Martin. Detroit's lineup wasn't potent even before these injuries.  Bauer holds a monster edge on Detroit's Ryan Carpenter, who will be making just his second big league start. Carpenter has a 7.36 ERA in the majors. He was 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA with Toledo in the minors. The Tigers aren't likely to have closer Shane Greene either. Greene has pitched the past four days.  But that shouldn't even matter as I see this as a kill spot for the Indians.Â
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05-15-18 | Cubs -124 v. Braves | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
The Braves have been one of rhe surprise teams this season, but this is a bad spot for them. Atlanta is home for the first time in nine days. So concentration could be a problem. The Braves just beat the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Monday in a makeup game. So they lost their off day to get their domestic lives in order following a lengthy road trip.   Look for the Cubs to even the series. They have won the past five times when playing in Atlanta. Yu Darvish goes against Mike Foltynewicz. Darvish is much better than he's shown so far with the Cubs. He returns from the DL supposedly with adjustments made. I see him getting turned around.  Foltynewicz doesn't go deep into games putting a strain on a taxed Braves bullpen. He also has a poor history versus the Cubs with a lifetime mark of 0-2 and 7.36 ERA. The Braves are 3-12 in the righthander's last 15 starts. The Cubs have won 74 percent of their past 42 road games against righthanded starters.
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05-15-18 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Bottom line here is simple: I just don't believe these two starters merit a total of less than 8. German Marquez has pitched better away from Coors Field, but he's a bottom of the rotation type with a 5.48 lifetime ERA versus the Padres, including four starts. Jordan Lyles is a middle reliever, who has yet to prove he is starter material. He has a 6.07 lifetime ERA against the Rockies in 10 appearances, including four starts. |
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05-14-18 | Mariners v. Twins -105 | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Seattle is about to experience life without its rock, Robinson Cano. The eight-time All-Star second baseman is out with a broken hand suffered on Sunday. That's a shock for the Mariners. I'm going to fade them in this their first game without Cano this season.  It's not just Cano being out. The Mariners are pitching journeyman lefty Wade LeBlanc. The Twins are 10-1 (91%) in their last 11 home games when facing a southpaw starter.  The Twins have scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games.  Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts.Â
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05-14-18 | Rays v. Royals OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The Rays are surrendering an average of 8.7 runs in their last four games. The Royals are giving up an average of 8.1 runs during their last six games.  Neither bullpen is strong and the starting pitching matchup pits two bad southpaws, Ryan Yarborough versus Eric Skoglund.  Throw in weather conditions where the wind is blowing out at 10-15 mph and I'll wager that these two teams combine to hit the double-digit scoring barrier.Â
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05-11-18 | Reds v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The Reds can hope. But their hopes are going to be in vain if they expect Matt Harvey to resmeble anything like his All-Star form of 2013 before multiple injuries, including Tommy John surgery, derailed his effectiveness.  Harvey is 9-19 during the past three seasons with ERA's of 4.86, 6.70 last season and 7.00 in four starts this season. He's surrendered six homers in 27 innings this year and hasn't pitched in eight days. So I'm certainly not expecting much from Harvey. Neither should the Reds. Harvey is likely to be rusty. So this could mean an early call for the Cincinnati bullpen, which isn't very good except for closer Raisel Iglesias and he carries a high fatigue rating having pitching 3 1/3 innings the past two days throwing 42 pitches.  The Dodgers have been underachieving. They are due and they aren't going to lack motivation after losing 4-1 to the Reds last night. The Reds have the worst record in the National League at 11-27.  Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is far more effective pitching at home where his ERA is 1.98 this season.Â
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05-11-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -125 | 11-10 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Chad Bettis has been pitching very well for the Rockies this season. He's 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. Colorado is 19-7 in his last 26 home starts. |
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05-10-18 | Twins +136 v. Angels | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
I see excellent value to the Twins. The spot and pitching matchup is good for them. Minnesota was idle on Wednesday and has won five in a row. The Twins are averaging 6.4 runs during their win streak and playing well in all aspects. They are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the Angels.  There's a good chance the Twins activate Byron Buxton from the DL for this game. He could be the premier defensive centerfielder in baseball.  The Angels blanked the Rockies in Colorado Wednesday. This is their first home game in a week so their concentration may be off.  The pitching matchup is Jose Berrios against Garrett Richards. I regard the 23-year-old Berrios as not just an emerging star, but a star already. Richards made just 12 starts the previous two years due to serios injuries. He has been up and down this season. Just two starts ago he was racked at home by the Yankees giving up five earned runs on five hits in 1 2/3 innings.  The Angels have played much better on the road than at home where they are 8-10 this season. |
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05-09-18 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
This total is set too low given a pitching matchup of Wade LeBlanc versus Jaime Garica.  LeBlanc is a 33-year-old journeyman who will be making only his second big league start in three years. He's filling in for injured Erasmo Ramirez.  Garcia has turned into a journeyman after a promising career with the Cardinals was derailed by constant injuries. The southpaw has gotten worse since the start of the season with an 0-2 record and 9.88 ERA during his last three starts. The Mariners have one of the better offenses against lefthanders.  The Blue Jays also are without closer Robert Osuna, who is awaiting a likely suspension. This not only leaves Toronto vulnerable in the ninth inning, but also weakens the team in the seventh and eighth innings. Â
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05-08-18 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
Forget that the Astros scored 16 runs on the A's in Monday night's game. This matchup is going to be a pitching duel between Lance McCullers Jr. and Sean Manaea, two of my favorite young and promising pitchers. McCullers can be streaky. Right now he's in great from going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts. His night ERA this season is 1.42. The A's aren't swinging hot bats. They are averaging only two runs per game during their last three games and haven't scored more than three runs in six of their last seven games. Oakland may not have outfielder Stephen Piscotty back in its lineup either. Piscotty's mother passed away on Sunday night and he has been away from the team.  Manaea is having a break through season going 4-3 with a 1.63 ERA. He's 2-1 with a 0.73 ERA when pitching at spacious and pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. The Under is 10-1-1 during Manea's last 12 starts. Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire. That's a plus for the under given Eddings' generous strike zone. The under has cashed four of five times Eddings has been behind the plate this year.Â
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05-07-18 | Twins +130 v. Cardinals | 6-0 | Win | 130 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
The Twins are playing better winning four of their last five games, including the past three. They are in a great spot to make it four victories in a row. The Cardinals just got through surviving a 14-inning, 4-3 win against the Cubs in the ESPN Sunday Night Game. St. Louis likely won't have its best offensive player, Tommy Pham, in the starting lineup due to a groin injury. Closer Bud Norris probably is out, too. The Cardinals' bullpen is carrying a heavy fatigue rating having just concluded two extra inning games.  But what really makes it rough for John Gant, set to make his first big league start of the season for the Cardinals, is no Yadier Molina. Forget Molina's contributions on offense. He's a Hall of Fame defensive backstop. Molina's intangibles such as calling pitches and framing strikes is off the charts as is his veteran leadership.  The Twins are pitching Fernando Romero, a top-100 prospect. This will be his second big league start. Romero held Toronto scoreless in 5 1/3 innings during his big league debut this past Wednesday. Romero averaged 96 mph on his fastball while striking out five.  Romero's upside is far higher than Gant's.Â
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05-06-18 | Cubs +108 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Given that I prefer Jon Lester over Michael Wacha and the Cardinals have three important injuries, the Cubs are a worthy investment.  Lester is having a strong season with a winning record and 2.73 ERA. The Cubs have won 68 percent of Lester's previous 59 starts. Lester has a solid 3.16 ERA in 15 career starts against St. Louis. Chicago is 4-0 the past four times Lester has gone against the Cardinals. I rate Wacha a tier lower than Lester. He's been fortunate to post a 4-1 mark this season with a 3.62 ERA. Wach has a bad history versus the Cubs going 4-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. St. Louis is 0-4 the last four times Wacha has gone against the Cubs.  St. Louis isn't likely to have Tommy Pham, its best offensive weapon, Yadier Molina and closer Bud Norris. All suffered injuries in the Cardinals' come-from-behind victory on Saturday. The Cardinals' bullpen is further depleted with Dominic Leone out with a biceps injured.Â
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05-04-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -116 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
We knew the Pirates were going to be bad this season and they are starting to prove that going 6-11 in their last 17 games, including losses in their last four games. Pittsburgh has lost in its last seven road games.  I don't see the Pirates getting well against the Brewers, a team they have a history of struggling against.  I'm looking to fade Nick Kingham. The long-time minor leaguer made his first big league start this past Sunday and took a perfect game into the seventh inning in a 5-0 win against the Cardinals. That was a huge thrill and a great debut. It certainly caught the Brewers' notice. Kingham has a 43-41 record in nine years in the minors. The Brewers are expected to have Travis Shaw and Ryan Braun in the lineup today. Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been a pleasant surprise He was 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 2016. He had a bad season last year, but has returned to his form of two years ago with a 2-1 mark and 0.82 ERA. He has not allowed more than one run during each of his four starts this season.  The 33-year-old is a classic late bloomer. Opponents are batting only .176 against him.  If you discount the Cubs sweeping the Brewers, Milwaukee would be 11-0 in its last 11 games.
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05-03-18 | Yankees v. Astros -120 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The Astros haven't lost three straight home games all season and I don't see it happening here. Not with a pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka versus Lance McCullers. Tanaka has a 9.00 ERA in two lifetime starts against the Astros at Minute Maid Park and a 10.38 ERA mark versus Houston in four career starts.  McCullers has a very strong history at Minute Maid Park where his lifetime ERA is 2.33 compared to 4.97 on the road. McCullers is in strong form with a 3-0 mark and 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. He's faced the Yankees three times in his career and is 2-0 against them with a 2.08 ERA.Â
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05-02-18 | Yankees v. Astros +115 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
The chance to get Dallas Keuchel as an underdog is too much to pass up.  Keuchel was back on track in two starts before his last outing. I see him bouncing back against the Yankees, a foe he has dominated. Keuchel is 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA in six career regular season starts versus New York and 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in three career playoff starts against the Yankees. Houston has won 71 percent of Keuchel's last 52 home starts. The Yankees are 1-7 in their past eight games at Minute Maid Stadium.  Yankees starter Luis Severino emerged as a star last season. My handicap is based far more on Keuchel and the Astros than a fade on Severino. However, Sevrino is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA in three career appearances against the Astros.Â
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05-02-18 | Rays v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Two hot pitchers go here. But that's not the only reason I like Under the total. Neither offense has been scoring many runs and this is a day game where weather factors. Tigers starter Michael Fulmer has a strong history when pitching during the day with a career ratio of less 1.00. Commerica Park is a pitcher's park and the wind is blowing in at 15-19 mph.  The Rays have scored only seven runs in their last three games. The Tigers haven't scored more than three runs during six of their last seven games.  Tamp Bay starter Blake Snell is below the radar right now. He hasn't given up more than two runs during any of his past four starts. He has a 34-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio during these four games spanning 26 2/3 innings. Snell would catch a break if Miguel Cabrera has to sit out for a third straight game due to a left biceps injury.  Fullmer is looking for his third straight strong start. He's allowed two earned runs during his last two starts spanning 13 innings. He has a 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his last two starts. Fullmer has a 2.36 career ERA versus the Rays in four starts.Â
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05-01-18 | White Sox v. Cardinals -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
The White Sox are dreadful with an 8-18 record and minus 42-run differential. I don't understand why James Shields is part of the White Sox's starting rotation. Shields is an over-the-hill innings-eater who I regard as one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. He had a 5.23 ERA last year and is even worse this year with a 6.14 ERA. Chicago has lost in 14 of Shields' past 19 road starts.  Chicago is 1-4 in Shields' five starts this season giving up 35 runs in those four defeats.  The Cardinals have won six of their last eight home games. The White Sox have dropped 11 of their last 13 interleague road matchups.  MIchael Wacha is two levels higher than Shields. So I have no problem laying 1 1/2 runs in order to reduce the high juice associated with fading Shields.Â
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05-01-18 | Brewers -113 v. Reds | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
I'll back Chase Anderson, the Brewers' best starting pitcher, at this short road price. The 30-year-old Anderson is a late-bloomer, who turned the corner last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. He's continued in good form this season with a 2.86 ERA. He has a 2.68 lifetime ERA against the Reds in seven games.  Anderson has a 0.93 ERA in three road starts this season holding foes to a .127 batting average. Milwaukee is 8-3 in Anderson's past 11 starts. So it's reasonable to expect a solid game from Anderson. I also like the Brewers' bullpen better than the Reds even without closer Corey Knebel.  Cincinnati has the worst record in the majors at 7-22. The Reds are a better team than that, but not that much better. They just got back Eugenio Suarez, but aren't likely to have Scotter Gennett in the starting lineup due to a sore throwing shoulder. He's the Reds' leading hitter with players who have more than 83 at bats.  If you discount their recent series against the Cubs, the Brewers would be 9-0 in their last nine games.   I'm not a fan of Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey. He seems to throw one excellent game and four bad ones for every five outings. The Reds are 7-19 in his last 26 starts. Cincinnati also has dropped 16 of its past 21 home contests.  Bailey hasn't had a winning record during the past four seasons. His ERA during the past two years is 6.65 and 6.43. He's winless this season with a 4.19 ERA. He has a 4.65 career ERA versus Milwaukee in 26 games.Â
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04-30-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
I'm sure the Dodgers will get straighten out. Right now, though, they are mess. Their 12-15 record is deserving. They have injuries and many of their better players are off to slow starts.  Arizona, by contrast, has the best record in the National League at 19-8. The Diamondbacks have yet to lose a series this season.  There's no reason for things not to continue the way they have in today's game. The Diamondbacks are going with their ace, Zach Greinke. Arizona is 22-8 in Greinke's last 30 home starts, including 14-1 the past two seasons.  The Dodgers are going to go with Ross Stripling, who has pitched well this season but in middle relief. He's not expected to pitch too many innings so this is looking like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Their bullpen has been below average this season.  Arizona has dominated the Dodgers winning 11 of the past 12 regular season meetings, including going 5-1 this season with a three-gamd home sweep at the beginning of the month.  The Dodgers are down Justin Turner and now Yasiel Puig, who was put on the DL Sunday. LA is 1-5 in its last six games and facing fatigue issues having played four games during the last three days, including a Saturday doubleheader.  This is a cheap price to lay to get Greinke especially given the circumstances.Â
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04-29-18 | Yankees v. Angels UNDER 9 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Both starting pitchers - CC Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs - have looked good this season. But there are a couple of hidden keys that also make the Under a worthy investment. This is a rare 5 p.m. West Coast start time for the Angels, done to accommodate the game being nationally televised by ESPN. Those who have attended games in Anaheim during this rare time at Angel Stadium know how tough it is for batters to see the ball because of twillight shadows.  Sabathia has a 1.86 ERA this season. Sabathia may catch a break if Shohei Ohtani has to sit out because of an ankle injury that has pushed back his next pitching start. The Under has won an amazing 75 percent of the time during Sabathia's past 22 road starts.  Skaggs has a 2.96 ERA and showing signs of turning the corner on his one-time promising career. The Yankees have never faced Skaggs giving him an element of surprise advantage. Note, too, that Angel Hernandez is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's a been huge Under ump during the past three years, known for his generous strike zone. The Under is 16-5 in Hernandez's last 21 home plate appearances.Â
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04-29-18 | Rockies -109 v. Marlins | 0-3 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Better team. Better pitcher. Decent line value. So, yes, I'm on the Rockies here. The knock on the Rockies is they aren't a good road team. But they are 8-3 during their past 11 away contests. And they're playing the Marlins, perhaps the worst team in the majors. The Marlins have dropped eight of their last 10 home games. Chad Bettis has been the Rockies' most consistent starter this season. He's pitched well away from Coors Field going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. He's in good form, too, with a 2.40 ERA in his last three starts. Bettis may avoid the Marlins' best power hitter, Justin Bour, who missed yesterday's game because of back spasms.  Miami starter Caleb Smith has yet to win in the majors. The rookie is 0-4 with a 6.69 ERA. The Rockies have the stronger lineup and it could be bolstered even more if DJ LeMathieu and Carlos Gonzalez are able to play.Â
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04-28-18 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Coming off an embarrassing 8-1 home loss to the A's and sizzling Sean Manaea on Friday, the Astros should get back on track in a big way facing Daniel Mengden.  The Astros' last seven victories all have been by at least three runs.  Mengden was drafted by the Astros four years ago and then traded to Oakland. He's yet to find success with the A's. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA in four career starts versus Houston. The A's bullpen is down injured setup man Ryan Buchter.  Houston has won 40 of its last 57 (70%) homes when going against a right-handed starter. The Astros have the superior starter, Lance McCullers, and bullpen going here. McCullers pitches much better at Minute Maid Park. This is just his second home start of the season. He gave up two earned runs in five innings to the Padres in his first home start this year. McCullers was 4-0 with a 3.04 home ERA last year compared to 3-4 with a 5.14 road ERA. Two years ago, McCullers was 5-3 with a 2.40 ERA pitching at Minute Maid Park while going 1-2 on the road with a 5.57 ERA. So the pattern clearly is established that McCullers is a much better home park pitcher. Â
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04-27-18 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Reynaldo Lopez is pitching way below-the-radar screen and Danny Duffy is overdue to throw a good game. Now that he's making his first night appearance of the season, this could happen for Duffy. Duffy entered the season as the Royals' No. 1 starter. He has not pitched well so far this season. However, Duffy has a history of pitching better at night and he's home. The Under has cashed in nine of Duffy's last 12 home starts. Duffy was 1-5 with a 4.60 ERA in day games last season, compared to 8-5 with a 3.46 ERA during night games.  The Royals could catch a break if Jose Abreu, the White Sox best and most feared hitter, has to miss a second consecutive game due to flu symptons.  Lopez's record is 0-2. He has a 1.50 ERA, though, and hasn't given up more than four hits, or two runs, during any of his four starts this year.  Both offenses are below average. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs scored. They've scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. The Royals' offense is even worse. Kansas City ranks 29th in runs scored, 27th in home runs and is in the bottom-five in batting average with runners in scoring position. The Royals also have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.Â
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04-26-18 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
After scoring five runs in six innings off Zach Greinke on Wednesday, the Phillies drop down to face Matt Koch. He's a replacement for injured Taijuan Walker. Koch pitched well in his first start this season. But that was against the Padres. He does not have a high ceiling.  The Diamondbacks are starting to get production from their Big Two of Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. The Diamondbacks draw Ben Lively, a second-year starter who also has a low ceiling. The Diamondbacks are familar with Lively. He was 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in two appearances against Arizona last season.  The Over has won in Arizona's last seven road contests.  Citizens Bank Park is one of the better hitter's parks in the majors and hitters will get addition help from a wind blowing out at 12-14 mph out to right field.Â
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04-25-18 | Rays +105 v. Orioles | 8-4 | Win | 105 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay has won four in a row. The Rays have scored 26 runs in their last three games. The Orioles are 6-17 on the season and have lost nine of their last 10. So, unless Dylan Bundy is on the mound, I'm fading the Orioles when they are chalk like they are here. The pitching matchup is Jake Faria versus Alex Cobb. Faria has a lot of upside. He's pitched well in three of his four starts this season giving up just one earned run in three of those outings. The Orioles are buried by injuries right now. Mark Trumbo and Colby Rasmus are out. Jonathan Schoop and Tim Beckham aren't likely to play. Trey Mancini could be out, too. These injuries have forced the Orioles to start Anthony Santander in the outfield and he's not ready for the big leagues yet.  Cobb has a 15.43 ERA on the season giving up 12 earned runs on 20 hits in seven innings. Cobb signed late and I doubt he's in shape yet. The Rays know Cobb well since he pitched for them from 2011 through last season.Â
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04-24-18 | A's -109 v. Rangers | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Quietly Oakland has gone above .500 on the season. The A's have won seven of their last eight games. Their underrated offense ranks in the top-six in runs, homers and batting average. They also have some underrated pitchers such as Andrew Triggs, who is slated to pitch today. Texas is going to be very bad again this season. The Rangers are 3-11 at home, have one of the worst bullpens in the majors and are down their two starting middle infielders, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor.  Triggs has pitched well in three of his four starts this season. He's facing Cole Hamels, who carries a big reputation but really isn't that good anymore. Hamels had a 4.20 ERA last season. It's 4.76 this year.  Triggs has a 1.02 lifetime ERA versus the Rangers in four appearances, including three starts. The A's beat the Rangers, 3-1, at home behind Triggs three weeks ago.Â
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04-23-18 | Mariners -142 v. White Sox | 4-10 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
The White Sox are 1-8 at home. They've been lit up for 57 runs during their last six games with a horrific bullpen. The White Sox offense has produced two or fewer runs in seven of their past eight games. It's not a shock then that the White Sox are riding a seven-game losing streak.  So Mike Leake's task shouldn't be that difficult. Leake is more innings-eater than star, but he's reliable and has pitched well since joining the Mariners last season. The White Sox have never faced him.  The Mariners are 9-2 when scoring at least four runs. That shouldn't prove difficult against Carson Fulmer, who is replacing scheduled starter Miguel Gonzalez.Â
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04-21-18 | Mariners -157 v. Rangers | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Bartolo Colon has a 1.45 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP and is holding opponents to a .177 batting average.  Scary to think what if the 44-year-old Colon was 20 years younger and weighed 100 fewer pounds? But he isn't and doesn't. Colon is due to get lit up and I see it happening here after Colon flirted with a perfect game in his last start this past Sunday retiring the first 21 Houston batters before walking a hitter in the eighth inning and then giving up a double.  Colon threw a season-high 96 pitches - a lot for this time of year - and I want to fade him after that magnificent performance.  The Rangers are one of the worse teams again this season. They have lost 20 of their last 27 home games and are 0-4 the past four times facing lefty starters. Seattle is going with southpaw James Paxton, who I rate as a "B" tier pitcher. The Mariners' lineup has been fortified with the return from injury of Nelson Cruz, Ben Gamel and Mike ZunimoÂ
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04-20-18 | Indians -110 v. Orioles | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
I respect Dylan Bundy, but the Orioles are terrible and the price is low enough to back the much superior Indians.  Baltimore is 5-14, losers of six in a row. Cleveland is one of the best teams in baseball, better than the Orioles in every facet. The Indians have started to get into gear winning six of their last eight. Trevor Bauer gets the start for Cleveland. Bauer looked sharp in his last outing giving up two runs on seven hits in seven innings against the Tigers this past Thursday in a 9-3 win. Bauer said he had his best stuff working for him in that game.  Bundy has been the Orioles' lone decent starter this season. He's been helped pitching in cold weather. Still, the Orioles don't win for him. Baltimore is 1-6 in his last seven starts. The temperatures will be in the high 50's for this game, almost balmy compared to how cold it has been. Budy has a 5.06 career ERA versus the Indians in two starts. Cleveland has won 27 of its last 37 road games. The Indians have defeated the Orioles five times in a row. |
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04-19-18 | Blue Jays +143 v. Yankees | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
Perception-wise this line makes some sense. The Yankees are the Yankees, the most public of teams, and they are home. But right now this line doesn't reflect reality.  The Yankees are struggling. They are 8-8, batting only .248 and averaging more than one error per game.  The Blue Jays are 12-5. They've won four in a row and have the better starting pitcher going in matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus CC Sabathia.  Just two years ago, Sanchez was being regarded as one of the best young pitchers in baseball going 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He missed most of last season with blister issues. Sanchez is healthy this year and he's put together back-to-back quality starts. He has a 3.03 career ERA against the Yankees.  Sabathia is in the twillight of his career and frequently gets hurt. He's coming off the DL to make this start. He last pitched on April 6 before straining his right hip. Sabathia has a 7.37 ERA during his past 12 starts against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are 9-3 in Sabathia's past 12 starts against them.  Â
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04-17-18 | White Sox v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Oakland is underrated offensively right now. The A's have scored 38 runs in their last five games. They rank in the top-five in batting average and home runs. The A's not only have power in the outfield and at the corners, but also in the middle infield with Marcus Siemien and Jed Lowrie.  The A's should be able to tee off on 33-year-old Miguel Gonzalez, who I regard as one of the weakest starting pitchers in baseball. Gonzalez may not be in Chicago's starting rotation much longer. He's allowed nine earned runs and 16 hits in his first two starts this season spanning 9 1/3 innings. Gonzalez hasn't reached the sixth inning in either of his starts and Chicago has a below average bullpen. Gonzalez is 0-3 lifetime versus Oakland with a 4.11 ERA in six appearances, including five starts. He's also going to be rusty having not pitched in eight days.   The White Sox should do their share of damage against journeyman Trevor Cahill, who was subpar in the minors this season until getting the call to pitch this game. Cahill has a 4.21 career ERA against the White Sox in 12 appearances, including nine starts. Oakland's bullpen is vulnerable, too. Both weather and the home plate umpire are pluses, too, for the Over. The forecast is for temperatues in the 50's - which is balmy compared to other baseball sites in this cold weather April - with the wind blowing out to right at 15 mph. Chad Whitson is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's been full-time in the majors since 2016. The Over has cashed during 60 percent of his 43 games behind the plate.
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04-16-18 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
I'm not impressed with a starting pitching matchup of Hyun-Jin Ryu versus fill-in starter Robbie Erlin. Ryu is far less effective on the road while Erlin is a reliever who is starting here because Luis Perdomo is suspended. So this could be a bullpen game for the Padres, who are weak in middle relief.  The Dodgers' offense is showing signs of coming around scoring six or more runs in three of their last four games.  The Padres' offense is underrated. San Diego has scored four or more runs in six of its last seven games. The Padres just scored a combined 20 runs at home in their last three games versus the Giants.Â
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04-14-18 | Brewers +106 v. Mets | 5-1 | Win | 106 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
The Brewers are showing signs of turning around their offense. I like Milwaukee's Chase Anderson over Matt Harvey so the pitching matchup is in Milwaukee's favor.  The Brewers are 17-8 the past 25 times going against a right-handed starter and have defeated the Mets seven of the last 10 times despite losing by one run in the opening game of the series on Friday. The Mets are down to their third-string catcher. That's going to catch up to them real fast.Â
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04-13-18 | A's v. Mariners +110 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Throwing at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field agrees with Mike Leake. He is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in five career starts at Safeco since coming to the Mariners last season. Leake is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA this season. Some perceive Leake as just an innings-eater. I believe he's better than that especially when pitching in Seattle. The Mariners have a dynamite speed offense that should be even better with the possibility of Nelson Cruz and Ben Gamel returning today from injuries.  The A's should not have opened a road favorite here. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs has an 8.53 ERA in three appearances against Seattle, including two starts.  Seattle has defeated Oakland in 12 of the last 19 meetings, winning seven of the last 10 at Safeco Field.
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04-13-18 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
It shouldn't be too difficult for each of these teams to produce at least four runs apiece. The wind is blowing out at 12-14 mph and the pitching matchup is Zach Davies versus Steven Matz.  Davies isn't a good pitcher. He has a 5.40 ERA this season and a 4.22 career ERA against the Mets in four all-time starts. The Brewers' bullpen has become unreliable with closer Corey Knebel out with a hamstring injury.  Matz has yet to live up to his potential. He has been disappointing for more than a year now. He has a 4.15 ERA in two career outtings against Milwaukee.  Â
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04-13-18 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
A lackluster pitching matchup of Kyle Freeland versus Tanner Roark on a warm, breezy day in Washington should produce double-digit runs given the quality of each team's offense. Freeland is a decent day pitcher at home. This is a night game in Washington. So expect bad things from Freeland, who has a 5.56 ERA and been stung for four home runs in two starts. Freeland has a 4.82 career road ERA in 13 away starts.  Roark is a bottom of the rotation type starter who doesn't miss many bats. He has a 4.50 ERA this season and a 4.91 career ERA in three appearances against the Rockies, including two starts.  Hitters should get a boost with the wind blowing out at 17 mph.Â
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04-12-18 | Cardinals -142 v. Reds | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Cardinals minus $1.45 at Reds  Early money has steamed up the Cardinals and I can understand why. It's the right move as the Reds are as bad as ever under Bryan Price and Michael Wacha has owned Cincinnati. The Reds are on their way to a fourth straight 90-loss season - if not 100 losses - with the worst record in the majors at 2-9. Price is dead man walking. It's amazing the Red have stuck with him as long as they have. St. Louis is 11-1 versus the Reds in Wacha's 12 starts. Wacha has a 2.85 lifetime ERA against Cincinnat. Wacha's has a 2.20 ERA in 41 innings pitching in Cincinnati. That's really impressive considering what a strong hitter's park that Great American Ball Park is.  The Cardinals' bats should come alive there especially facing Sal Romano, perhaps the worst of the Reds' weak starting pitching. Romano has a 4.59 career ERA in 18 starts and has more walks than strikeouts this season. |
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04-11-18 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Giants | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
I find excellent value on the Diamondbacks here. Arizona is the superior team and should have a huge starting pitching mismatch.  Robbie Ray is a "B" level pitcher who is elite status when it comes to strikeouts. He's 4-1 career-wise versus the Giants with a 2.53 ERA in eight starts. This includes a 3-1 mark and 1.46 ERA in four career starts at San Francisco. , The Giants are going with untested Andrew Suarez, who only was called up due to Johnny Cueto going on the DL. The Diamondbacks have plenty of right-handed hitters who can hurt Suarez, including Paul Goldschmidt who got back on track last night. |
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04-10-18 | A's v. Dodgers -121 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Both teams have started slow. In the case of the Dodgers they will get things turned around. I doubt the A's can do that because they aren't a very good team. Their starting pitching and bullpen are very unreliable. Oakland is hurt more than the Dodgers, too, by not having a DH since this game is at Dodgers Stadium. The A's outfield depth is being tested with Chad Pinder and Boog Powell going on the DL.  This is a battle of lefties - Sean Manaea versus Hyun-Jin Ryu. I like Ryu when he pitches at home where historically he has been much better than on the road.  Oakland has lost 21 of its last 30 interleague games. The A's have lost 78 percent of their past 65 road games, too, when going against a southpaw starter.  The Dodgers are a dominant 25-10 during their last 35 interleague home games.Â
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04-09-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This total is too short. Unlike many other games, this is a matchup where the weather is nice. There's also a 10-12 mph wind blowing out.  Arizona has one of the best offenses in the National League. The Diamondbacks rank seventh in runs scored. They draw Derek Holland and a revamped - and largely untested - San Francisco bullpen that lacks a reliable closer.  Holland struggled with the White Sox during the second half of last year going 2-5 with an 8.93 ERA during his final 12 appearances that included nine starts. He had a 4.05 spring training ERA and last pitched on March 31 so he figures to be rusty.  Zack Godley is showing a lot of promise, but he's still a middle-of-the-rotation type pitcher and has a bad history against the Giants with a 7.84 lifetime ERA in four appearances versus San Francisco. |
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04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Pitching, weather, home plate umpire and fair line value all make this a strong Under play.  Baseball started its season too early this year. This is the Sunday night ESPN game and it's another matchup that is going to be affected by tough weather conditions with temperatures in the 40's and wind blowing in at around 12-14 mph.  Matt Harvey is below-the-radar right now. He's poised for a comeback season. He held the Phillies - who just scored 20 ruins in their last game - scoreless in five innings during his first start allowing only one hit. Perhaps most impressive about that performance was that Harvey didn't have his best stuff.  Tanner Roark was sharp, too, in his first start holding the Braves to one run on four hits and a walk while going seven innings. Roark has an excellent history versus the Mets with a 7-2 mark and 2.72 ERA in 17 appearances, including 11 starts.  Both teams have solid bullpen depth and the pitchers will be aided by home plate umpire Mark Ripperger, who has a large strike zone.Â
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04-08-18 | Braves v. Rockies -133 | 4-0 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
The Braves have lost 13 of their last 16 games at Coors Field. Look for that trend to continue here in a pitching matchup of Sean Newcomb versus Kyle Freeland. Newcomb is a young power pitcher with command issues. Walking batters does not go well especially at Coors Field. Newcomb had a 1.57 WHIP last season and was wild again in his first start this season giving up five earned runs on five hits and four walks in an 8-1 loss to the Nationals this past Monday. Newcomb has a 5.91 ERA in two career starts against Colorado.  Freeland is at his best during day games at Coors Field with a 6-3 mark and 2.55 ERA in those circumstances. That's the situation here.  Colorado is tough at home and has the better bullpen moreso now with Wade Davis in the closer role.
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04-08-18 | Diamondbacks +140 v. Cardinals | 4-1 | Win | 140 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Nothing against Cardinals pitcher Luke Weaver. I like him. But I have to price enforce here because this line is too high providing value for Arizona. Taijuan Walker is a good young pitcher, too, with upside.  The Diamondbacks are the better team. They are off to a 6-2 start this season despite Paul Goldschmidt batting only .115.Â
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04-07-18 | Padres v. Astros -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a kill spot for the Astros following their surprising 3-1 home loss to the Padres on Friday. The Astros may have the best lineup in baseball. The Padres may have the worst.  Gerrit Cole had a strong Houston debut and dominated the Padres when he was in the NL going 4-2 with a 1.96 ERA in six career starts versus them.  Padres starter Bryan Mitchell has some upside, but he's not ready for the majors yet. He had a rough season debut and now draws the Astros on the road. San Diego's best relievers carry a high fatigue rating. This isn't going to be pretty.Â
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04-07-18 | Cubs -149 v. Brewers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Minus closer Corey Knebel and probably their best all-around player, outfielder ChristianYelich, the Brewers upset the Cubs, 5-4, on Friday scoring a run in the ninth inning to win it.  Kudos to the Brewers, but I don't see them repeating that feat. Their lineup isn't as good as the Cubs even if Anthony Rizzo has to sit out a second straight game.  The pitching matchup of Yu Darvish against Zach Davies and the bullpens also favor Chicago. I want the Cubs going for me here off their irritating loss.Â
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04-06-18 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | 9-13 | Win | 105 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
This total should be double-digits given a starting pitching matchup of Daniel Gossett versus Parker Bridwell.  Gossett is one of the worst starters in the league. Opponents batted .306 against him last season. Gossett started off poorly this season giving up four runs on six hits to the Angels in six innings. Now the Angels get another look at Gossett just a week later.  The A's are a much more dangerous offensive team away from spacious Oakland Coliseum. They draw Bridwell, who they shelled twice when they faced him last season. Bridwell was ticketed for the minors. He's only up pitching in this game because Matt Shoemaker suffered a strained right forearm and had to go on the DL.  These teams have a history of going Over with the high side cashing seven of the past nine times. The Over is 22-7-1 during the past 30 times they've met in LA. Â
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04-06-18 | Cubs -138 v. Brewers | 4-5 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Not only do the Cubs have a monster pitching edge, but they catch the Brewerrs likely without two of its best players. Closer Corey Knebel definitely is out for Milwaukee after suffering a hamstring injury on Thursday and Christian Yelich, the Brewers' top all-around player, is likely out, too, as he deals with an oblique injury.  Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is one of the most depenable starters in baseball. His career ERA of 2.93 is second only to Clayton Kershaw among active pitchers with 75 or more starts. Hendricks has dominated the Brewers at Miller Park, too, with a 4-1 career mark and 2.31 ERA there.  Brandon Woodruff will be making just his seventh big league start. Milwaukee is 0-5 in Woodruff's home starts. Woodruff has some potential, but remains a work-in-progress and could get moved to the bullpen depending on how things play out with Knebel's injury.Â
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Arizona has some outstanding hitters. The Diamondbacks are fifth in runs. St. Louis is underrated offensively. The Cardinals rank No. 2 in homers. The Cardinals have power from top to bottom as evidenced by eight different players hitting at least one home run this season.  The pitching matchup is Robbie Ray versus Adam Wainwright. Ray is off a bad first outing giving up six earned runs in five innings, including three homers, against the Rockies. Ray has a 6.52 ERA in three lifetime starts against the Cardinals. Ray is being priced like an elite pitcher with this low total. He's not. Ray is a big strikeout pitcher, but he's not "A" level. Wainwright is getting the start as more of a ceremonial gesture since this is the Cardinals' first home game of the season. The 36-year-old likely is washed-up. He had a 5.11 earned run average and 1.50 WHIP last season.  The weather is good for the hitters with temperatures in the mid-to-high 50's and wind blowing out to left at 12-14, which is particularly bad news for Ray being a lefty. Â
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04-04-18 | Dodgers -118 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
I like the Dodgers to salvage the final game of this series against the Diamondbacks after losing with Clayton Kershaw last night. Arizona suffered a key loss in that game, though, with third baseman Jake Lamb suffering a shoulder injury.  I'm a fan of Dodgers starter Alex Wood. Not so with Arizona starter Patrick Corbin. Wood was dominant last season going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA holding opposing batters to a .217 average. Wood opened this season in great style permitting only one hit in eight scorelessinnings against the Giants this past Friday. He was 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts versus Arizona last season with 23 strikeouts in 21 innings.  Corbin has shown flashes, but never really has proven he can be trusted. The southpaw has struggled versus the Dodgers with a 3-9 lifetime mark and 4.42 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. He had a 5.06 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers last season.  LA is 9-3 in Wood's past 12 away outings and has won 14 of the past 18 times when drawing a lefty starter on the road.Â
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04-03-18 | Indians +129 v. Angels | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
The Indians have beaten the Angels 16 of the past 17 times, including the last 12. I'm going to ride that streak especially since the Indians are underdogs.  The oddsmaker is putting too much stock in Garrett Richards, who remains on the comeback trail. Richards has made just 12 starts the past two seasons due to injuries. Richards wasn't sharp in his opener against the A's, a much inferior team compared to the Indians. Richards has a 4.40 career ERA against the Indians in 14 1/3 innings. Cleveland may be the best team in baseball. The Indians are going with Josh Tomlin, who draws very little respect. Tomlin, though, doesn't walk batters and is plus 11 wins during his career with the Indians. He's not sexy, but he is reliable. That's all the Indians need since they possess the much stronger bullpen.Â
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04-03-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The price is right to back the Brewers, who have made themselves a strong playoff contender. Milwaukee is home and has its best starting pitcher going, Chase Anderson. Anderson still is a bit below the radar. He's a late bloomer who broke through last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. This includes a 2-0 mark and 3.04 ERA in four starts versus the Cardinals. Anderson was sharp against the Padres in his first start this season throwing six scoreless innings with six strikeouts and only one hit allowed.  The Cardinals are countering with righty Jack Flaherty, their No. 5 starter who soon could be departing back to the minors when Adam Wainwright is ready to pitch. Flaherty likely needs more seasoning. He had a 4.50 ERA in five spring training outings. The Brewers got a look at him late last season getting to Flaherty for four fours on five hits in five innings on Oct. 1.  The Brewers are 13-5 in their last 18 games versus righty starters going back to last season.Â
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04-02-18 | Indians -113 v. Angels | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
It's no secret why the Indians have defeated the Angels 11 times in a row and 15 of the last 16. The Indians almost always have the superior pitcher going, have a stronger offense and the better bullpen. That's the case again in this matchup where the price is low enough to get involved with Cleveland. I like to target promising pitchers with upside who are below the radar where you don't have to pay an unfair price to back them. Mike Clevinger fits that description. Clevinger was outstanding on the road last season going 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA. He pitches with extra motivation against the Angels, the team where he spent his first three years after being drafted in 2011. Clevinger came on very strong at the end of last season posting a sub-1.00 ERA during his last 27 1/3 innings.  The Angels' closer situation is unsettled and they have JC Ramirez starting. Ramirez is a borderline starter who doesn't have Clevinger's skill and talent set. Ramirez is on the comeback trail from an elbow injury that cost him the final six weeks of last year. He had a 5.40 ERA during spring training.Â
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04-02-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +103 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 103 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Fear not the Dodgers when they play the Diamondbacks during the regular season. Arizona has won the last six times and the games haven't been close with the Diamondbacks outscoring LA by 27 runs during this span.  I see the Diamondbacks making it seven straight regular season wins against the Dodgers today in a pitching matchup of lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Taijuan Walker.  Ryu is the Dodgers' No. 5 starter, who is much more effective whe pitching at Dodger Stadium. LA has lost in 11 of his last 15 road starts. Arizona is one of the better teams in the NL. Ryu is 1-10 during his last 11 road outings versus above .500 teams.  The Diamondbacks, with Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Polllock, are very tough against southpaws. Arizona was 25-17 versus lefties last season and already 1-0 this year. The Diamondbacks drew Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson two games ago and smashed him for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings.  Walker not only is a decent pitcher, but he is a breakout candidate having not reached his full potential yet. He posted a 3.32 ERA during the second half last season and was 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three regular season starts against the Dodgers last year. Ryu was 0-1 in two starts against Arizona last season. He allowed 19 baserunners in 10 innings and surrendered three homers during his lone Chase Field appearance last year.  The Diamondbacks were idle on Sunday while the Dodgers had to play in the Sunday night game. So the scheduling dynamics are on Arizona's side. Â
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04-01-18 | Cardinals -135 v. Mets | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
It's just the start of the season, but already the Cardinals are frustrated losing their first two games to the Mets. St. Louis is the better team and the Cardinals have the superior starting pitcher going here. So I see them avoiding a sweep. Luke Weaver showed a lot of promise last season and he was impressive during spring training allowing only one run in 16 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts while holding batters to a .113 average. The Mets have never faced Weaver giving him the element of surprise. The Cardinals go from seeing Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom to facing Steven Matz here. Matz wasn't healthy last season posting a 2-7 mark and 6.08 ERA in 13 starts. Matz is supposed to be past his elbow injuries, but he wasn't sharp in spring training with a 6.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Matz went against the Cardinals once last season and allowed five runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings on July 9.
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03-30-18 | Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Marlins aren't just bad. They are bad enough to be in the argument of being the worst team in the decade. The oddsmaker knows this. That's why the price is so high to fade the Marlins. The best and safest way to protect the bankroll while still going against the Marlins is backing the Cubs on the run line. Kyle Hendricks is one of the most reliable starters in baseball. He allowed one or fewer runs in eight of his last 16 starts in 2017. His career ERA is 2.94. The Marlins gutted their offense.  The Cubs should do enormous damage against Caleb Smith. The rookie lefty is a fill-in for injured Dan Straily. Nothing indicates Smith is ready to pitch in the majors especially facing such a challenging lineup that has tremendous right-handed power.  The Cubs were 21-14 versus lefty starters last season. They toyed with the Marlins on Thursday before putting them away, 8-4. It should be the same story today with the Cubs easily winning by multiple runs.Â
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03-29-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +140 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
The Yankees are going to be overpriced a lot this season especially early with all the hype surrounding them. Toronto is just the opposite. The Blue Jays are healthy and underrated. That makes them dangerous.  This price is too high. The Yankees usually struggle in Toronto losing in 14 of their last 20 visits.  The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus J.A. Happ. Severino is a potential ace, but he has a poor track record against Toronto giving up seven runs on 14 hits in 12 2/3 innings against them.      On the flip side is Happ having excellent success versus the Yankees going 8-2 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Happ finished 4-1 in his last five starts last season giving up just seven earned runs during this five-game span.         Â
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03-29-18 | Cardinals v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Much has to go right for there to be fewer than seven runs scored in a major league game. There are three elements at play here and two of the three point to a higher-scoring game than perceived. The starting pitching matchup does favor the Under with Carols Martinez facing Noah Syndergaard. These are elite pitchers although Martinez was more in the good than great category last season. But even if these aces are on their game - which is asking a lot since this is the earliest start date in baseball history excluding international games - they aren't going to get stretched out. The bullpens will be taking over at some point, probably earlier than expected, and neither is good. Both teams are still searching for their sure-fire closer.  The Cardinals have a strong offense. The Mets' offense is underrated when Yoenis Cespedes is healthy, which he is now.Â
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10-31-17 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
After the Astros' 13-12 victory on Sunday in Game 5 you would think the total might be set in the double-digit range for today's World Series Game 6.  It's not. There are good reasons for that.  The past three games were played at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park with a DH.  The scene now shifts to pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium where unlike the first two games of the series when temperatures were a sizzling 103, the weather is going to be much different. The forecast is for 65 degrees. This is a cool air, too, and much different than these teams were used to when playing the first two games at Dodger Stadium. It's going to be an adjustment for the batters.  I also like both starting pitchers very much.  Justin Verlander is 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his 10 appearances with the Astros. The guy's a pro and potential Hall of Famer. I see him getting the job done.  Rich Hill is one of the nastiest lefty strikeout artists in baseball when healthy. He's healthy now. Hill held the Astros to one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in four innings during Game 2. He only threw 60 pitches yet was pulled by manager Dave Roberts. That was one of the biggest mistakes of the series - and Roberts knows it. Roberts is going to let Hill pitch deep into the game provided Hill is pitching well. I believe Hill will be dominant.  Both bullpens have been battered. A day off, a drastic change of scenery and no DH will help the pitching.  But this is going to come down to Verlander versus Hill. I like and trust both of these pitchers especially given the circumstances. The overmanaging should stop here. Just let these two studs go and the chances are good we'll have a 3-2 or 4-3 final score.  Â
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10-27-17 | Dodgers +124 v. Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Houston is tough at home. But I'll take this plus price with the Dodgers, who have the better starting pitcher and bullpen.  LA has followed each of its last four losses with a victory. The Dodgers also are 5-1 in their last six road games. The Dodgers picked up Yu Darvish for just such a spot here. Darvish has come through when the Dodgers have needed him most giving up only two runs during his last five starts spanning 30 2/3 inings. He's struck out 35 during this time frame while giving up a combined 19 htis and walks.  Darvish knows how to pitch at Minute Maid Park with a lifetime mark of 4-1 and 2.16 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP in six career games there. Current Astros are batting just a combined .190 against Darvich. The Astros are the more powerful team, but the roof is going to be closed reducing Houston's power.  Houston is pitching Lance McCullers. The Astros have lost eight of the last nine times McCullers has started.Â
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10-24-17 | Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
As great as he is, Clayton Kershaw does not have a good history in the postseason. He's 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 playoff appearances, including 17 starts. If minus 1 1/2 runs were attached to Kershaw's last 11 starts the Dodgers would be just 6-5 in those games.   Kershaw is going against a Houston offense that led the majors in runs, batting average and slugging percentage. The Astros also hit the second-most home runs. This is remarkable in that they had the fewest strikeouts of any team. The Astros also can run finishing eighth in stolen bases with 88.  Jose Altuve gives Houston the best player in baseball.  The Dodgers are in a vulnerable spot in this Game 1. LA hasn't played in four days. Batting practice can't make up for that long delay. The Astros have had two days off. Their batteries are still charged up after they got past the Yankees in seven games by winning Games 6 and 7.  The Dodgers were fortunate to have met the Diamondbacks, who lacked playoff experience, and sleepwalking Cubs in the postseason. The Astros are a clear step up, winner of 101 games and with two studs heading their rotation, Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander.  Keuchel goes here. The AL Cy Young Award winner of two seasons ago, has a lifetime playoff mark of 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six career postseason appearances, including five starts. Houston is 11-3 the past 14 times Keuchel has pitched on the road.  Given Kershaw's poor postseason history, the starting pitching matchup is far closer than this price indicates. The Astros have the better offense and are in good spot with the Dodgers possibly being rusty and overconfident after dominating the NL playoffs.  I do give the Dodgers a checkmark for their late-inning relief pitching. So I believe the best way to play this game is taking the Astros on the run line especially in what's being projected as a low-scoring game. Â
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10-20-17 | Yankees v. Astros -131 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 41 h 44 m | Show |
The Yankees have been dominant at home going 19-3 in their last 22 games at Yankee Stadium. The Astros have been equally dominant at home winning 15 of their last 17 games at Minute Maid Park. This includes a 4-0 playoff record.  This game is at Minute Maid Parik. The Yankees are 1-4 in their five playoff road games.  Home field certainly means a lot here. But there are other factors why I'm so strong on the Astros in this game.  The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus Justin Verlander. Severino had a breakout season reaching his high ceiling. But he's largely untested in playoff, pressure games.  Verlander is a proven pro. The former AL MVP is 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA all-time in postseason action. Verlander has been the absolute nuts since joining the Astros going 8-0 in eight sarts. He's been at his finest during the playoffs, too, going 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA.  The Astros finished the regular season with the No. 1 offense in the majors. They are batting a puny .147 in this ALCS. Masahiro Tanaka has been a huge problem for them. Tanaka has held the Astros to two runs in 13 innings. But the Astros aren't facing Tanaka here.  The Yankees not only lose their huge home field advantage, but also their momentum with Thursday's travel day. This also gives the Astros a much needed day to regroup.  If the Yankees do indeed beat Verlander and the Astros here in Houston, they are most deserving of the American League pennant. I don't see that happening, though, in this Game 6.Â
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10-16-17 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
The Astros and the Yankees were the two-highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. They are due to break out after a pair of 2-1 Houston wins during the first two games of this series.  The pitching matchup pits Charlie Morton against CC Sabathia. Morton is a middle-of-the-road caliber starter while Sabathia is well past his prime at 37. Morton has a 5.68 ERA in two starts versus the Yankees. Sabathia has a 5.85 career ERA in seven ALCS starts. The switch to Yankee Stadium is huge for the Yankees. They posted an .817 regular season OPS at home compared to .755 away. Joe Girardi also is sending a good message to his young hitting stars by not tinkering with the lineup. He knows the Yankees have the talent to bust out especially with a drop of Morton from past Cy Young Award winners Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander, who handcuffed the Yankees in the first two games of the series.Â
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10-16-17 | Astros v. Yankees -124 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
After facing past Cy Young Award winners Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander, the Yankees get to square off now against mediocre Charlie Morton. Down 2-0 in this ALCS, the Yankees' season is on the line. The good news is they are home now. The Yankees went 51-30 at home during the regular season. They then went 2-0 versus the Indians at Yankee Stadium after losing the first two road games of that playoff series.  Houston is a bit fat and happy after squeezing out a pair of one-run victories at home. The Astros went an amazing 80-37 versus right-handed starters, but were just 21-24 against southpaw starters. The Yankees are starting lefty CC Sabathia.  The 37-year-old Sabathia has been solid in the playoffs knowing he's only going to go around five innings. So he doesn't have to hold anything back. Joe Girardi is going to come in with his best relievers knowing this is a do-or-die spot for the Yankees.Â
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10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
CC Sabathia hooked up with Corey Kluber in Game 2 of this series. The Indians won that won, 9-8, in 13 innings. Sabathia did his part, though, going 5 1/3 innings allowing two earned runs on three hits.  Sabathia is quite familar with Cleveland having spent the first 7 1/2 years of his career with the Indians. He's a big game pitcher and he's backed by a strong bullpen that is rested after being idle Tuesday. The under has cashed in nine of Sabathia's last 12 road starts.  Kluber is coming off his worst start in that 9-8 win. I have no doubt, though, that Kluber will pitch a strong game here. He's the best pitcher in the American League and has a strong history against the Yankees. Even with his bad start in Game 2, Kluber still has held the current Yankees lineup to a .184 batting average.  Aaron Judge is ice cold. He's 1-for-15 in the series with 12 strikeouts. The Yankees have a lot of young hitters like Judge who have not had this kind of Game 5 playoff pressure.  Kluber is going on his normal four days rest. The under is 10-3-1 the last 14 times Kluber has pitched on four days rest. Kluber also is backed by a very strong bullpen.  Weather factors favor a low-scoring game, too. Temperatures will be in the low 60s and the wind will be blowing in at around 15 mph.       Â
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10-08-17 | Indians -114 v. Yankees | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Masahiro Tanaka is inconsistent. You're never sure what you're going to get from him. That's not the case with Carlos Carrasco. He gets overshawdowed by teammate Corey Kluber, but Carrasco is an elite pitcher.  Carrasco has pitched brilliantly on the road going 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA in 17 road outings. He's in tremendous form, too, going 6-0 with a 0.85 ERA in his last six starts.  The Indians are the hottest team in baseball winning 44 of their last 52 games.  The price is right to back them against what has to be a demoralized Yankees squad.  Joe Girardi picked a bad time to turn in maybe the worst managed game of the season this past Friday. The Yankees blew a five-run lead in what turned out to be a 9-8 loss in 13 innings.  Girardi not only lifted CC Sabathia too early, but failed to challenge an obvious miscall by the umpire that Lonnie Chisenhall had been hit by a pitch. In the process, Girardi put his bullpen in a serious fatigue spot for this game with Dellin Betances likely unavailable. Those bad decisions by Girardi clearly cost the Yankees the game. Â
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10-08-17 | Astros -135 v. Red Sox | 3-10 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
You can pull the fork out now. The Red Sox are cooked.  The Red Sox have injuries and I don't trust their frame of mind. The Astros have destroyed Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz in winning the first two games of this playoff series.  Don't look for Doug Fister to save Boston. He's given up 17 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 16 2/3 innings allowing 24 hits and seven walks.  The Astros are batting .343 in the series and have smashed six homers.  Houston starter Brad Peacock has given up two earned runs or less during his past seven starts. Houston is 12-4 in Peacock's last 16 road starts. Boston is 1-4 in Fister's last five starts at Fenway Park.Â
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10-08-17 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
I see these teams reaching double-digits in scoring with the series coming to hitter-friendly Fenway Park where the weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing out to left and center at a crisp 18 mph.  The Astros had the best offense in baseball during the regular season and they've stayed hot during the first two games of the series batting .343 with six homers.  Houston lit up Chris Sale and Drew Pomerantz. The Astros should destroy Doug Fister, an over-the-hill veteran turned journeyman who has surrendered 17 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 16 2/3 innings.  Boston could do its share of damage against Brad Peacock, who is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA lifetime versus the Red Sox. Peacock has an 8.53 ERA in 12 2/3 innings pitching at Fenway Park.  Mookie Betts is expected to play for the Red Sox.Â
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10-06-17 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
Both pitchers, Kyle Hendricks and Stephen Strasburg, pitched well down the stretch. But postseason baseball is different and 7 is too low of a total considering the caliber of these offenses. The Cubs scored the fourth-most runs in the majors this year. The Nationals were fifth in runs scored.  Both teams are healthy with their key bats in place. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner have had enough bats to get the rust off.Â
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10-06-17 | Red Sox +170 v. Astros | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
There is a lot of value taking Boston at this plus price.  Lefty Drew Pomeranz isn't getting enough respect here. He went 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA on the road this season and was 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA in two starts against Houston. Pomeranz is in good form, too, giving up fewer than two runs in three of his last four starts.  The Astros are just 21-24 against lefthanded starters. The Red Sox have won 17 of the last 21 times Pomeranz has pitched versus an above .500 team.  I like Dallas Keuchel. But he last pitched way back on Sept. 26. Houston is 2-6 the last eight times Keuchel has pitched with nine or more days rest. Boston has the superior bullpen, too, with a 3.15 ERA compared to Houston's bullpen ERA of 4.27.Â
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10-05-17 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 7 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
Even with two big name pitchers going, this total is too low considering how strong the offenses are. Houston led the majors in nearly all the major offensive categories, including runs and batting average. The Astros also hit the second-most homers.  Boston doesn't have Houston's power, but the Red Sox finished 10th in runs. The Red Sox know how to manufacture runs.  While Justin Verlander has pitched well in all five of his Houston starts, Boston starter Chris Sale has been terrible down the stretch going 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA in his last eight starts. Sale has surrendered nine homers during his past five starts.  It's certainly not too much to ask these offenses to produce at least three runs apiece. Sale is not the Sale he was early in the season. Verlander has been pitching great, but he's past his prime.Â
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10-05-17 | Red Sox v. Astros -121 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
Chris Sale hasn't been an underdog all season - until now. There's good reason for this. Sale is worn down. This isn't the star lefty who went 14-4 with a 2.51 ERA during his first 24 starts, but the southpaw who is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA during his past eight starts. Sale surrendered four homers to the Blue Jays in his last start. Sale is facing an opponent that led the majors in runs and batting average while finishing No. 2 in homers. The Astros also compiled the second highest OPS versus southpaws. On the flip side, Houston starter Justin Verlander is pitching his finest ball going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts with the Astros. Unlike Sale who has no playoff experience, Verlander is a proven postseason performer with a 3.39 ERA in 16 career playoff starts.  The Astros have the stronger offense and the better pitcher going. The price is lower than it should be based on Sale's reputation. That reputation, though, should just be for the first four months of the season not October.Â
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10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
Jon Gray and Zack Greinke enter this matchup in good form and with strong track records. Since this is a one-and-done scenario, starting pitchers will be available to pitch if needed in the later innings.  The Diamondbacks are heavy favorites so the game is likely to go 8 1/2 innings instead of nine. Please note, too, that the roof will be closed at Chase Field. That's a huge plus for the Under.  Gray should be fresh having been limited to 20 starts due to early-season injuries. Only twice did he allow more than three earned runs in his starts. He has a 2.44 ERA since the beginning of August.  Greinke regained his elite form with a strong comeback season going 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Greinke has a 215-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Opposing hitters are batting only .207 against Greinke at Chase Field.  Both teams lack playoff experience so that could affect the offenses, too.Â
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10-03-17 | Twins +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
The Yankees have loads of young talent. But that young talent is now on the playoff stage for the first time with all the pressure on them.   The Twins aren't flashy. They don't have the power, or rising superstarts, the Yankees do. But they don't beat themselves and are tough on the road going 44-37.  The pitching matchup is 23-year-old Luis Severino, making his first playoff start, against veteran Ervin Santana.  This isn't a fade on Severino, who had his breakout season. But more a value play to get 1 1/2 runs with the Twins figuring Santana will keep them in the game.  Santana went 10-3 on the road with a 2.71 ERA in 17 away outings. He's been solid versus the Yankees the past three seasons posting a 3.16 ERA in 25 2/3 innings.Â
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10-01-17 | Tigers +133 v. Twins | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
I like the value here. The Twins have clinched a playoff spot and will be resting regulars just like on Saturday when Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton didn't play.  Oh, yes, Bartolo Colon is starting for Minnesota. The washed-up 44-year-old is 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in his last four starts.  Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez is in much better form turning in quality starts during his last three outings. Sanchez has allowed four earned runs in 18 innings during this span.Â
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09-30-17 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a special game for the Giants because it's the last start for Matt Cain, who is retiring when the season finishes Sunday. Cain has had a nice career with the Giants. But there's a reason he's retiring: He's a shot pitcher.  Cain has nothing left. Sentimentally doesn't retire hitters. Cain is 3-11 with a 5.66 ERA on the season.  Padres starter Jhoulys Chacin has been much worse on the road where he's 4-7 with a 6.93 ERA.  Both pitchers have been bad in day games. Chacin has a 4.78 day time ERA while Cain is 0-4 with an 8.06 ERA when he's pitched during the day. There's about a 10 mph wind blowing out to help the hitters, too.Â
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09-29-17 | White Sox v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
The Indians are 34 games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cleveland is 41-10 in its last 51 games. But don't expect the Indians to coast. That's because they are only one game ahead of Houston for the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs.  The key here to avoid such heavy juice is to lay 1 1/2 runs with the Indians. Cleveland's last five victories have all been by more than one run.  That should be the case again today in a pitching matchup of Mike Pelfrey versus Trevor Bauer, who has finally lived up to his vast promise. Bauer has 16 victories and been a moster during the second half of the season going 9-1 with a 2.69 ERA during his last 13 appearances, including 12 starts. It's a mystery how Pelfrey stays in a big league rotation. He's one of the worst starters in baseball. He's 3-11 this season with a 5.52 ERA. He's made three appearances against the Indians this season and is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA. The Indians faced him three weeks ago and got to him for seven runs on eight hits in four innings.  The White Sox have lost 37 of their last 52 road games and are 0-7 in Pelfrey's last seven starts.Â
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09-28-17 | Twins v. Indians -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
Cleveland is the hottest team in baseball winning 30 of its last 33 and Carlos Carrasco is one of the hottest pitchers going 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last six starts.  Carrasco is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two games against Minnesota this season. The Indians are 9-2 in his last 11 home starts.  The Twins did a lot of celebrating last night after clinching a playoff spot. They are going to be very flat especially with this being a very early start time.  The Twins' bullpen is overworked and starter Ervin Santana has a far more important start next week when he faces either the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs.Â
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09-27-17 | Braves -101 v. Mets | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Given all the Mets injuries, the Braves are the better team. Atlanta also has the better pitcher going and superior closer.  Lefty Sean Newcomb is pitching much better than when he came up, having cut down his walk ratio. Atlanta is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Newcomb has given up three runs or fewer during his last four starts.  Newcomb just beat the Mets at home, 3-2, 11 days ago as a $1.20 favorite. He went 5 1/3 innings and had eight strikeouts with only one walk. The price is cheaper here.   New York is 3-13 the past 16 times facing a southpaw starter. The Mets also are 3-7 in Robert Gsellman's last 10 starts. Gsellman has regressed horribly this season after a promising 2016. He has a a 5.38 ERA and has pitched only marginally better since returning from a hamstring injury suffered in June.   The Mets could be without their two late-inning pitchers. A.J. Ramos is hurt and Jeurys Familia has pitched four of the last five days, including the past two going an inning on Monday and an inning on Tuesday.  Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino, who is better than Familia, is well rested.Â
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09-27-17 | Mariners v. A's -115 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
The A's and Kendall Graveman are below the radar. Oakland has won 14 of its last 19 games. The A's are getting strong offensive support and their bullpen has come around. Graveman has been doing his part. Graveman is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his last three starts. He's been very strong at home with a 5-0 mark and 2.79 ERA. He's also been good in day games with a 2-0 record and 3.20 ERA. Let's contrast this with Seattle starter Erasmo Ramirez, who is 1-6 with a 6.09 ERA on the road. His record during the day is 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA. The Mariners have lost 17 of 21 times that Ramirez has pitched against a division foe.  The Mariners are out of playoff contention, playing the string out. They are 3-8 in their last 11 games, scoring three runs or less in six of those games.Â
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09-26-17 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Both the Twins and Indians average slightly better than five runs scored per game, each ranking in the top-six in this most important category.  The pitching matchup is Bartolo Colon versus Josh Tomlin in a battle of fifth-starter types. I see no reason why these two teams shouldn't match at least their season figure in runs scored especially given this starting pitching matchup.  Colon is 44 - and showing his age. He's completely worn down posting a 9.17 ERA in his four September starts. He was pounded for six runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his last start this past Wednesday. Colon really shouldn't be in the majors anymore. He was 2-8 with a hideous 8.14 ERA in 13 starts with the Braves before going to the Twins. He's posted a losing record with the Twins with a 5.33 ERA. The Indians are sacrificing some defense to get Jason Kipnis' bat in the lineup. The second baseman is now playing center field.  Tomlin has a 4.98 ERA. He doesn't pitch deep into games. The Twins have a good history against him. Tomlin has a losing record versus Minnesota with a 5.21 ERA in 17 appearances.  The Twins are swinging very hot bats scoring 39 runs in their last four games.Â
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09-25-17 | Mariners v. A's +107 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The A's youth movement has been paying off. Playing without any pressure, Oakland has won seven in a row and 14 of its last 17 games. Only twice in their last nine games, have the A's surrendered more than three runs.  While morale is up with the A's the opposite is the case with Seattle. The Mariners were eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday after losing to the Indians at home. Seattle is 1-8 in its last nine games and could be resting regulars with its season finished.  The Mariners aren't likely to have injured shortstop Jean Segura. Speedy outfielder Jarrod Dyson already is out for the season. Without thow two, the Mariners have no running game.  The pitching matchup pits Felix Hernandez against Daniel Gossett. King Felix is on a downward slope. Bothered by shoulder problems, he's only 5-5 with a 4.57 ERA this year. Clearly, he's not the same pitcher.  The rookie Gossett has made 16 big league starts this season. He has a 5.38 ERA, but has been pitching better giving up three runs or fewer in each of his last four starts.Â
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09-25-17 | Angels v. White Sox +140 | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
It's the Angels who are chasing playoff hopes. But it's the White Sox who are playing better winning nine of their last 15 games. The Angels just ended a six-game losing streak by beating the Astros. That victory came in the Sunday night game in Houston. So the Angels are traveling after playing at night, a bad situational spot.  The White Sox are playing loose but playing hard. They have youngsters in their lineup, but these youthful players are highly talented. Chicago just took two of three from the Royals, who also held playoff aspirations.  The Angels are in must-win mode, which can lead to tightness.  The pitching matchup is Ricky Nolasco versus James Shields. That's bad versus bad so why not take a plus price in a battle of journeymen?  Nolasco hasn't won in his last six starts. He is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight lifetime starts against the White Sox.  Shields was one of the worst pitchers in baseball earlier in the season. But he's made some adjustments that have brought his ERA down. He does have a solid history versus the Angels with a 6-4 lifetime mark and 3.13 ERA in 14 startts.Â
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09-25-17 | Nationals +122 v. Phillies | 3-1 | Win | 122 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Even though the Nationals have nothing to play for, I still like them in an underdog role against the Phillies.  Washington has won seven of its last nine road games. The Nationals have had great success in Philadelphia winning 17 of the past 22 times there. The Nationals have excellent depth. The Phillies have been playing a lot of youth. So I'm fine if the Nationals choose to sit out a couple of regulars.  There's a strong possibility Bryce Harper returns to Washington's lineup today. Harper was batting .326 with 29 homers and 87 RBI's when he was injured on Aug. 12. He hasn't played since. There will be a buzz, if not outright spark for Washington, if Harper does play.  Nationals starter A.J. Cole has been pitching better with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander beat the Phillies at Citizens Band Park back in May holding the Phillies to one run in six innings. The Phillies have lost 69 percent of their last 96 games against righy starters.   Aaron Nola gets the call for the Phillies. He's had more difficulty against the Nationals than any other team with a 1-3 career record and 4.69 ERA.Â
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09-23-17 | Nationals -180 v. Mets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
If these were normal circumstanes, I would never lay anywhere close to this price in a pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg versus Noah Syndergaard.  But they are not. Syndergaard is making his first appearance since April 30. He's only going to pitch one inning. Then Matt Harvey will take over. Harvey is trying to overcome his own injury woes. Since returning from the DL, Harvey has a 13.19 ERA in four starts. The Mets are letting Harvey pitch through his trouble. This sets up the Nationals offense, which ranks No. 3 in runs and batting average.  Strasburg has been dominant giving up only three runs in his last six starts spanning 41 innings. He has a 2.33 ERA in three starts versus the Mets this season.  The Nationals are 21-5 in Strasburg's last 26 road starts. Washington should have incentive, too, after blowing a five-run lead in a 7-6 loss Friday in the series opener.Â
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09-23-17 | Royals -175 v. White Sox | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
The Royals are in must-win mode trailing the Twins by 4 1/2 games for the final wild-card slot in the AL.  Kansas City catches a nice break here drawing White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey. There may not be a worst starting pitcher in the majors than Covey. Bad starters usually get yanked out of the rotation very soon. Not Covey. He's part of the White Sox rebuild, youth movement. So he keeps taking his turn in the rotation and the White Sox keep losing whenever he pitches. Covey has yet to win in 10 big league starts and 17 appearances. His ERA on the season is 8.18. Covery has surrendered 18 homers and 31 walks in 58 1/3 innings. Covey is 0-2 versus the Royals with a 6.61 ERA.  Danny Duffy gets the call for the Royals. Duffy was pitching well until going on the DL with a knee injury. He returned this past Sunday and held the red-hot Indians to one earned run on one hit with eight strikeouts in five innings. Duffy was limited to 65 pitches in that start. He'll go longer here.Â
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