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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-07-16 | Cubs v. A's +158 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
This isn't the mismatch it looks like on paper. |
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08-07-16 | Rangers -110 v. Astros | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
The Astros are 2-7 in their last nine games and pitching rookie Joe Musgrove, who has been used in the bullpen. I don't see Musgrove pitching long in this game and the Astros have a vulnerable bullpen. |
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08-07-16 | Mets -126 v. Tigers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
The price is low enough to get into play with a pitching mismatch of Jacob deGrom versus Anibal Sanchez. |
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08-06-16 | Marlins v. Rockies -123 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Look for the Rockies to bounce back after losing on Friday when they blew a ninth-inning lead. |
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08-06-16 | Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 7.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
On paper this total looks right. Aaron Sanchez and Danny Duffy are having career seasons. But there are red flags for them. Sanchez already has pitched a career-high 139 1/3 innings this season. |
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08-06-16 | Indians -143 v. Yankees | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
I'll lay this price with the superior team that has a major edge, too, in starting pitching. |
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08-05-16 | Red Sox +113 v. Dodgers | Top | 9-0 | Win | 113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Not only does Boston have the better offense, but the Red Sox also have the superior starting pitcher going here. Yet they opened underdogs. |
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08-04-16 | A's v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 4:05 p.m. West Coast starting time, which is extremely rare for an Angels home game. There is a history of these Angels home games going under at that starting time because hitters have trouble picking up the ball due to the glare of the sun setting above the third base side. People who have attended these starting time games know what I'm talking about. |
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08-02-16 | Pirates v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
Gerrit Cole has been an elite pitcher and he's rounding back into that form since missing a month because of a strained right triceps. He's been getting better and better since returning from the DL culminating in his last start when he held the Mariners to one run on three hits and no walks with six strikeouts in a complete game performance. Now he draws the Braves, who are last in runs and homers.Â
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08-02-16 | Rangers v. Orioles UNDER 9 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
The Orioles have gone under the total an amazing 17 times in their last 19 games, including 14-1-1 under in their past 16 home games. Look for that trend to continue in this matchup. |
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08-01-16 | Yankees v. Mets -105 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
This game opened priced much lower than it should be because CC Sabathia is a big-name starter while Logan Verrett is not.Â
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07-31-16 | Mariners +125 v. Cubs | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Just because the Cubs struck gold with another failed Oriole, Jake Arrieta, doesn't mean they can do it with Brian Matusz. As good as the Cubs are, and playing at home, I disagree that they should be favored in a matchup of Matusz against Felix Hernandez. |
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07-31-16 | Cardinals -115 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Stud versus underachiever. That's what we have in this matchup. Carlos Martinez doesn't get a lot of publicity, but he's a star and he's at his best on the road. |
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07-30-16 | Royals v. Rangers -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Question: Which team has the worst road record in the majors? Step to the front if you said the defending world champion Royals. They have dropped 34 of their 51 away games and have just about faded from playoff contention trailing the Indians by 10 games in the AL Central. |
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07-30-16 | Yankees v. Rays -123 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
The buy sign is on here for southpaw Drew Smyly, a big strikeout pitcher who had an encouraging outing in his last start. |
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07-29-16 | Nationals v. Giants +146 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
I understand it's tough to get behind the Giants right now. They are 2-10 since the All-Star break. |
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07-29-16 | White Sox -120 v. Twins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
The White Sox are in must-win mode against this bottom-feeder. Twins players have to be distracted by the upcoming trade deadline especially after infielder Eduardo Nunez, their lone All-Star, was dealt to San Francisco following Thursday's win against Baltimore. |
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07-28-16 | Orioles +102 v. Twins | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Baltimore is 58-42. Minnesota is 37-63, the worst record in the American League. That's a sampling of 100 games. The verdict is in and the Orioles are much superior to the Twins. |
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07-28-16 | Orioles v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 102 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
The Orioles have scored only 10 runs in their last six road games. This was supposed to be their first off day since All-Star break. Instead, though, they have to play in this postponed game before heading off to Toronto for a first-place AL East Division showdown series against the Blue Jays. So it wouldn't be surprising if some of the key Baltimore hitters are rested in this matchup. |
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07-27-16 | Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 104 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Boston has the best offense in baseball. The Tigers carry a high bullpen fatigue rating. The two teams just played a 9-8 game last night. So naturally the oddsmaker is going to assign a high total to today's matchup. |
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07-26-16 | Rays +112 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
After making a key mechanical adjustment, the buy sign is on for Chris Archer. He pitched at Coors Field this past Wednesday and held the Rockies to two runs on four hits in six innings. Up to that point, Archer had been very disappointing. Yet he still leads the American League in strikeouts with 147 in 123 1/3 innings. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Archer a first-look edge. |
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07-25-16 | Yankees v. Astros -148 | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
The Yankees not only lose their closer Aroldis Chapman, but also are mentally distracted following that trade today in which the star reliever was dealt to the Cubs. |
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07-25-16 | Phillies +124 v. Marlins | Top | 4-0 | Win | 124 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
Take away Jose Fernandez and the Marlins' pitching staff is very vulnerable. That's especially so when an injury hits like it has to Wei-Yin Chen. He's out with an elbow injury. The reason the Marlins' back-end of their rotation is so bad is because they have no adequate replacements. |
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07-24-16 | Rangers v. Royals -117 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a key matchup for the defending world champions. The Royals have been dominant at home going 31-15. They have only lost four times in 22 games when favored at Kauffman Stadium. |
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07-24-16 | Giants v. Yankees OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
The Yankees aren't likely to have overworked star relievers Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances for this game. That puts a lot of pressure on Nathan Eovaldi, who hasn't been up to the task. Eovaldi pitched well in his last start, but prior to that he had a 9.20 ERA in his previous six starts. He carries a 13.30 lifetime ERA in five careers starts versus the Giants. |
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07-23-16 | Braves +177 v. Rockies | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 60 m | Show | |
This is way too big of a price for the Rockies to lay pitching lefty Tyler Anderson and having a shaky and fatigued bullpen. The Rockies believe Anderson has promise. The Braves believe the same thing about Matt Wisler, who gets the start here. Wisler more than held his own when he pitched at Coors Field last year giving up two runs in six innings. |
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07-23-16 | Padres v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -129 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
I want to fade Edwin Jackson in the worst way while getting behind Max Scherzer. Of course the whole world wants to do this, too. So this is a way to get the matchup - laying 1 1/2 runs - without having to risk 3/1 odds. |
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07-23-16 | Mariners +136 v. Blue Jays | 14-5 | Win | 136 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
The price is right to back the underdog Mariners. So is the pitching matchup. |
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07-22-16 | Tigers -145 v. White Sox | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Detroit is 11-1 the past 12 times Michael Fulmer has taken the mound. This record isn't built on luck. Fulmer has been brilliant going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA on the season, including posting a 7-1 mark in his last 10 outings with a 0.83 ERA.Â
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07-21-16 | Marlins v. Phillies -107 | 9-3 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
The Marlins have been a nice success story so far this season. But their biggest weakness - the backend of their rotation - is likely to get exposed in this matchup. |
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07-21-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Promising Julio Urias can only hope to be as dominant as Stephen Strasburg is right now. Strasburg is more than living up to his huge ceiling as he tries to become the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to open a season 14-0. |
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07-20-16 | Rays v. Rockies +100 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Chris Archer is on his way to a 20-lose season and has shown no signs of reverting back to last season's All-Star form. His ERA hasn't been under 4.00 since his second start and he's given up 20 homers after surrendering 19 last year. Archer is 0-6 in his last seven starts. |
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07-19-16 | Twins +1.5 v. Tigers | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
It's easy to rip the Twins. Sure they've been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball. But they have won six of their last 10 and if given 1 1/2 runs would be 15-4 in their last 19 games. |
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07-19-16 | Giants v. Red Sox -156 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I don't see the Giants getting it done with Jake Peavy pitching in band box Fenway Park. San Francisco hasn't played at Fenway since 2007. Peavy knows Fenway, though, from his days in the American League. He has a 4.47 ERA in 14 starts at Fenway. |
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07-18-16 | Indians v. Royals +131 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 131 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
This is a huge series for the Royals if they want to make a run in the AL Central. Kansas City has yet to lose to the Indians at home in three meetings this season. |
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07-17-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
This is a huge game for the Yankees with a decision looming if they want to keep playing for this season, or trade off their outstanding relief pitchers. I certainly respect Boston's top-ranked offense. But the Yankees have their ace, Masahiro Tanaka, going plus they won't hesitate to employ their Big Three star relief pitchers - Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. |
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07-16-16 | Marlins v. Cardinals -155 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
There's nothing wrong with St. Louis' offense  - fourth in the majors in runs and sixth in homers - and now the Cardinals have a strong pitching matchup edge with a rejuvenated Adam Wainwright drawing Tom Koehler. The buy sign is on with Wainwright as he's returned to ace status holding the Brewers and Pirates to a combined one run in his last two starts spanning 14 innings. Wainwright tied his season high in strikeouts against the Pirates with nine. Wainwright has a good post-All-Star history (50-28 with a 3.05 ERA) and is 4-2 with a 2.33 lifetime ERA versus the Marlins in eight starts.  Koehler historically is worse on the road and that's held up this season with a 4.72 away ERA compared to 4.22 ERA at Marlins Park. Koehler has a career WHIP at 1.56 and a 7.56 lifetime ERA versus St. Louis in three starts. Koehler is vulnerable to the Cardinals' power bats, too. He didn't allow a homer in his last start, but surrendered four during his previous three outings. The Marlins are 0-7 the past seven times Koehler has started versus an above .500 opponent. All of this helps make this my Game of the Week. |
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07-16-16 | Royals -119 v. Tigers | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
Question: Who is the Royals' best starter? I'd go with Danny Duffy. He's made 11 starts since becoming a part of the Royals' starting rotation and gone 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA. Kansas City is 8-3 in Duffy's starts this season. The key for Duffy is better control. He has a 23-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. |
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07-10-16 | Nationals +120 v. Mets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 120 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This would be a much better matchup for the Mets if Steven Matz were healthy, Yoenis Cespedes was able to play and there wasn't such gloom around the team with the recent news about Matt Harvey being out for the season and Noah Syndergaard possibly dealing with a serious injury. |
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07-09-16 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
Take the Padres out of Petco Park and they become a dangerous offensive team. San Diego is averaging 7.8 runs in its last six road games. |
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07-08-16 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 111 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Jimmy Nelson are pitching better and both team's offenses are down because of missing players. |
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07-08-16 | Braves v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
The Braves ended a four-game losing streak by upsetting the Cubs in a rain-delayed, 11-inning makeup game Thursday. Now the Braves draw the rested White Sox, who were idle Thursday, and lefty Chris Sale. |
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07-08-16 | Rays +105 v. Red Sox | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
I understand the Rays are 3-19 in their last 22 games. But I don't care if they were 0-22. The oddsmaker opened Boston - with Sean O'Sullivan on the mound - a favorite against Chris Archer. That's enough for me to take Tampa Bay. |
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07-07-16 | Padres +128 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 128 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
I'm always attracted getting a plus price with the superior starting pitcher. That's the case here with Drew Pomeranz facing lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. |
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07-06-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals -165 | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
I don't see the Cardinals getting swept at home especially with Pittsburgh throwing Jeff Locke, who has a 7.16 road ERA in nine away starts. Locke also has a 4.04 lifetime ERA against the Cardinals in nine starts. Pittsburgh is 2-8 the past 10 times Locke has pitched on the road versus an above .500 foe.Â
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07-06-16 | Mariners v. Astros -151 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride the hot Astros, winners of 28 of their last 39 games. Houston starter Mike Fiers is pitching his best ball going 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last four starts. The righty is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA during his past three home starts. |
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07-06-16 | A's v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
So far Sonny Gray has yet to demonstrate his stud form of previous seasons, but he's not as bad as his overall numbers show. He's rounding back into shape after being out with a strained trapezius, which affected his early season performance. Gray posted a respectable 3.23 ERA in June and hasn't walked more than one batter in any of his six starts since returning from his injury. He's facing a below-average Twins offense that ranks 19th in runs scored. |
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07-05-16 | Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Masahiro Tanaka has been super on the road this season with a 1.32 ERA in seven starts and is 16-7 with a 2.84 ERA during his career when pitching on five day's rest, which is the case here. Tanaka is backed by perhaps the best relief trio in baseball - Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. |
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07-05-16 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Rangers starter AJ Griffin is making just his third start since coming off the DL. He's been averaging less than five innings since returning to the starting rotation and does not figure to last long against Boston, the highest-scoring team in the majors. The Rangers' bullpen has a heavy fatigue rating throwing 25 innings during the past six games with a 9.72 ERA. |
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07-04-16 | Marlins v. Mets -150 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The Mets have a rested bullpen, something the Marlins don't have, and draw Miami traveling to play in a day game after playing in the late Sunday game at night. |
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07-04-16 | Rockies +135 v. Giants | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
The Giants have a cluster injury problem in their outfield with Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco all ailing. San Francisco also is minus starting third baseman Matt Duffy and second baseman Joe Panik. The Giants carry a high bullpen fatigue rating and over-the-hill Jake Peavy is the starting pitcher. |
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07-04-16 | Yankees v. White Sox +118 | 2-8 | Win | 118 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
James Shields is enduring a terrible season. But he did pitch well in his last start holding the Twins to one run in 6 2/3 innings with five strikeouts and one walk at home this past Wednesday. |
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07-03-16 | Yankees -118 v. Padres | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
I'm willing to lay a short road road price on promising Chad Green against Andrew Cashner, a proven underachiever who has been battling injuries much of the season. |
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07-02-16 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm not buying into a total of less than eight in a pitching matchup of Chad Bettis against Scott Kazmir. |
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07-02-16 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Adam Wainwright isn't the same pitcher he once was and Jimmy Nelson struggles on the road and is coming off a horrible June where he was 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. Nelson has a 5.66 road ERA and a 9.51 career ERA versus St. Louis in six appearances. |
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07-01-16 | Orioles +110 v. Mariners | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
I believe this could be the top value play of the season so far getting the Orioles as an opening underdog against Seattle journeyman southpaw Wade LeBlanc. |
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06-30-16 | Giants -140 v. A's | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
The line has come down enough to where there is value backing Madison Bumgarner. He's among the best pitchers in baseball. Dillon Overton should be a much higher priced 'dog. The Giants are 17-5 the past 22 times Bumgarner has faced a sub .500 foe on the road. |
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06-30-16 | Indians -110 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
I'm going to continue to ride the Indians and a back-in-top-form Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland has outscored its opponents by 51 runs in winning its last 12 games. Carrasco has regained his elite status with three straight quality performances, posting a 1.61 ERA during this span. |
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06-30-16 | Rangers v. Yankees -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
I can see the Yankees owning a pitching edge in every inning. A.J. Griffin is making just his second start since coming off the DL. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game for precautionary reasons and the Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Closer Sam Dyson also carries a fatigue rating. |
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06-29-16 | Dodgers v. Brewers +107 | 0-7 | Win | 107 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
The underdog Brewers should have beaten the Dodgers last night and are in a better spot to pull the upset today facing rookie Brock Stewart in his big league debut. |
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06-29-16 | Phillies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
The Phillies are playing much better. They've won four of their last six, including the first two games of this series. They would be 7-0 if given 1 1/2 runs during their last seven games. |
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