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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-12-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -126 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
I want the Astros going for me coming off a 5-0 shutout loss to Lance Lynn and the Rangers Thursday night. The Astros are back healthy with the exception of Carlos Correa. They drop way down in class going from facing Lynn to journeyman Jesse Chavez, who I consider more of a relief pitcher than starter  Chavez will be making his fourth start. He's getting worse having allowed seven earned in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He is off a season-high 90-pitch count. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors, while the Astros' relief corps is among the best.  Astros starter Gerrit Cole was the AL Pitcher of the Month in June. He is 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last eight starts with 70 strikeouts in 51 innings.  The Rangers are really missing injured Hunter Pence. They are averaging just 3.7 runs in their last 11 games discounting a 9-3 Fourth of July victory against the Angels.  Each of the Rangers' past six losses have come by more than one run.Â
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07-11-19 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 11.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
I'm not looking to play a ton of Unders with scoring and power way up this season. Trying to make an Under work in Arlington's Globe Life Park can prove especially difficult during the hot, humid months of July and August.  But I'm going to make a rare exception in this Astros-Rangers matchup. It's the only game on the Thursday baseball card. The rest of the MLB teams still get to enjoy All-Star break.  My three main factors why I like the Under are Lance Lynn, the Astros' fresh and elite bullpen and the Rangers' current bad offensive form.   Lynn is one of the few pitchers going deep into games. He has gone at least seven innings in each of his last four starts. Lynn just isn't an innings-eating, which is important enough given the weak Texas bullpen, but he is having a strong season yielding three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Under is 7-2 in his last nine starts. The Astros entered the break off an 11-10 win against the Angels, However, they had failed to score more than four runs during any of their previous three games.  Houston is expected to start rookie Framber Valdez. This would be his fifth start of the season. Valdez was very good in his first two starts holding the Orioles and Blue Jays to a combined three earned runs in 13 innings with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He wasn't so good in his past two starts giving up 11 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings with a 5-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio versus the Yankees and Pirates. That got him sent down to Triple-A Round Rock.  What to expect from Valdez? That's the big unkown. What is known is the Astros have an elite, rested bullpen. Valdez just needs to be respectable for five innings. At that point the Astros can turn to middle relievers Will Harris (1.67 ERA), Hector Rondon (3.00 ERA), setup man Ryan Pressly (1.36 ERA) and closer Roberto Osuna (1.95 ERA).  Valdez will be pitching on regular rest. The Rangers' scoring has gone downhill. If you discount a 9-3 Fourth of July win against the Angels, Texas is averaging 3.6 runs in its last 10 games. That would be tied for second-to-last in the majors if computed for the entire season. This scoring slump has coincided with Hunter Pence being out since June 16 due to a groin injury. Ronald Guzman and Asdrubal Cabrera haven't been hitting. The Rangers' lineup these days brings no fear.  There could be rust factor, too. The only four players from these two teams who have swung a bat against live competition since Sunday are All-Stars George Springer, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Joey Gallo. The three Astros have had a combined five at bats. Gallo had just one bat in the All-Star Game. It was a home run to his credit.  I'm not putting that much stock in this All-Star break rust angle, however. There were 13 Over and four Unders on the one-game Thursday menu and full slate of Friday games following the 2018 All-Star break.  The forecast is for wind blowing out to right at 9-12 mph. That could be why early money has pushed the total up presenting what I perceive as value to the Under. The humidity will be reduced because of partly cloudy conditions so that's a weather plus for the Under.Â
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07-07-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -156 | 5-3 | Loss | -156 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The Dodgers have lost two in a row to the Padres. The last time LA lost more than two consecutive games was April. The Dodgers have won 76 percent of their last 59 home games.  So I don't mind laying a higher than normal price to back the Dodgers in this spot in a pitching matchup of lefty Joey Lucchesi versus Ross Stripling.  Lucchesi is a Petco Park pitcher with a bad history against the Dodgers. He has a 2.76 ERA at Petco. That ERA rises to 6.10 when Lucchesi pitches on the road. He has a 7.64 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers. The Padres have lost all four of those starts. The Dodgers are 6-1 the past seven times going against a southpaw starter.  Padres closer Kirby Yates carries a high fatigue rating having thrown 39 pitches during the past two days in picking up saves Friday and Saturday.Â
 Stripling is underrated being part of such a strong Dodgers pitching staff. He would be a No. 3 type starter on many teams, but has had to wait until Rich Hill suffered a long-term injury to get back into LA's rotation. Stripling has a 2.61 career ERA in 13 appearances versus San Diego, including five starts.  The Padres could be without their star rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. He was hit on the elbow by a pitch during Saturday's game.  |
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07-07-19 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
After getting nipped by the Marlins, 5-4, on Saturday I see the Braves bouncing back in a big way today. Atlanta is 7-1 the past eight times following a defeat. The Braves are 13-4 in their last 17 home games and had defeated the Marlins eight consecutive times until Saturday. Miami starter Trevor Richards has a 6.53 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are hitting .333 against the righty during this span. The Marlins have lost 10 of Richards' last 12 road starts. Atlanta is 18-6 in its last 24 games facing a righty starter.  Dallas Keuchel is making his fourth start for Atlanta. Keuchel has looked better in each of his outings. He held the Phillies to two runs on five hits in seven innings at home in his last start this past Tuesday.Â
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07-07-19 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Chase Anderson and Joe Musgrove both are in good form. But there are other factors that point to an Under.  This has been a bitter division series and is the final game before All-Star break. Neither team won't play again until Friday. Not only are the top relievers for both teams fresh after the Pirates' 12-2 blowout win on Saturday, but it wouldn't shock if starters were used, too, if needed because of the timing.  Anderson is pitching his best ball of the season giving up three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings with an 8-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. Josh Hader - the best two-inning reliever in baseball - could be used, too.  Musgrove has surrendered just one run in his last three starts spanning 16 innings. Musgrove hasn't been scored on during his last 12 innings.  There also are injuries. The Brewers are down shortstop Orlando Arcia, who was injured in a collision with Keston Hiura yesterday. The Pirates may not have outfielder Corey Dickerson, who suffered groin discomfort in Saturday's game. Pittsburgh already is missing injured outfielder Gregory Polanco.Â
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07-06-19 | Rockies +104 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Colorado had held Arizona's number winning eight in a row against the Diamondbacks - until Friday night. The Rockies couldn't do anything against Zach Greinke in an 8-0 loss. Look for the Rockies, though, to start a new win streak against the Diamondbacks in a pitching matchup of Jon Gray versus Robbie Ray.  Gray has always had a high ceiling and he's been pitching much better with a 2.90 ERA in his last nine appearances spanning 49 2/3 innings. Gray has 52 strikeouts during this span. Colorado is 7-1 in his past eight starts. Gray is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two starts versus Arizona this season, including holding the Diamondbacks to one earned run in six innings at Chase Field on June 19.  Gary won't have to worry about injured David Peralta, the Diamondbacks' third-best hitter.  Ray hasn't pitched well for more than a month giving up three earned runs or more in six of his last seven starts. His ERA has gone from 3.26 to 4.10 during this time frame.The lefty has a 5.49 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Rockies. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story have a combined .388 batting average against Ray with 10 homers in 103 at bats.  The Rockies rank in the top four in the National League against lefthanded pitching in a number of categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.Â
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07-06-19 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Gerrit Cole was the best pitcher in the American League during June going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 38 innings spanning six starts. He is an elite pitcher. Houston is 21-5 in Cole's last 26 home starts.  Lefty Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Angels. Heaney is a high strikeout, high ERA type pitcher. He has a 5.40 ERA this season and has a lifetime 6.00 ERA in two starts at Minute Maid Park. While Cole is in great form, Heaney gave up five runs on six hits and a walk in six innings in a loss to the A's during his last start this past Sunday.  The Angels are 2-9 in Heaney's last 11 road starts against an above .500 team. Houston also is 19-6 versus southpaws this season.  Each of the Angels' last seven losses have been by more than one run. So I feel confident taking the big chalk home Astros giving up 1 1/2 runs on the run line in order to knock down the high juice.Â
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07-06-19 | Indians -120 v. Reds | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
The Indians are heading into All-Star break making a move, going 19-8 in their last 27 games. Jose Ramirez is showing definite signs of breaking out of his season-long slumber batting .333 in his last 10 games. The Indians are much more dangerous when Ramirez is playing well.  Cincinnati has won three in a row, all against the Brewers with two of the victories being by one run.  I just see the Indians as being at least a level higher than the Reds and I like the pitching matchup of Shane Biebier against Anthony DeSclafani enough to lay this price.  DeSclafani has a 5.64 ERA in day games. Bieber has proven himself on the road with a 5-2 away mark and 3.33 ERA. Cleveland is 11-3 in his last 14 road starts. Bieber is coming off a 2-0 victory against the Orioles where he allowed three hits in eight innings with 11 strikeouts.  The Reds are just 6-15 in their last 21 interleague games.Â
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07-05-19 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 10.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
So far so good for Jordan Yamamoto. In four starts, Yamamoto has a 2.35 ERA ERA with 23 strikesout in 23 innings and a 0.96 WHIP. Opponents are batting .133 against him. This is going to be Yamamoto's toughest test as the Braves rank fifth in runs scored and have scored five or more runs in seven of their last eight games.  Atlanta's July humidity can be brutal, which is a plus for the hitters. But Yamamoto catches a break. Even though the temperatures are going to be the 80s the weather forecast is for overcast conditions, which greatly reduce the humidity, and a slight wind blowing in.  Julio Teheran has a string of 12 scoreless innings against Miami in two starts this season giving up four hits, three walks and striking out nine. The Marlins have scored only five runs in their last three games. The Under has cashed eight of the last 10 times the Marlins have gone against a right-handed starter.  Teheran hasn't gone more than six innings during any of his last 11 starts. However, he has given up two earned runs or fewer in nine of those 11 outings.  This has been an Under series with the low side cashing 10 of the last 14 times, including the past four in Atlanta. Friday Free Play Rockies at Diamondbacks Under 9 minus $1.20  The Rockies are batting .314 at home. The Braves have the next highest home batting average at .277, which is 37 points behind the Rockies.  Take Colorado out of Coors Field, though, and the Rockies' offense isn't scary at all. It's far below average in fact. The Rockies rank 14th in the National League in road batting average at .225 and are 13th in the NL in road homers. Colorado is averaging 3.1 runs in its last six away games.  The Rockies open a series today at Chase Field, which has become much more of a pitcher's park. They draw All-Star Zach Greinke, who is 9-3 with a 2.90 ERA.  Greinke usually can be counted on to hold up his end. But what about Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela? His current form is good - 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts. He also has a 1.89 ERA in his last three road starts and is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in two starts versus Arizona this year.  The Under has cashed in 79 percent of Senzatela's last 15 road starts.  The Diamondbacks rank 12th among the 15 National League teams in home batting average and home runs. Arizona hasn't scored more than four runs in any of its last five games.  Arizona also is likely to be without outfielder David Peralta. He's the Diamondbacks' third-leading hitter and is tied for third in team RBI's. Peralta is dealing with a sore right shoulder.  Each team's closer has been shaky lately, but both teams were idle on Thursday. So the bullpens will be fresh. |
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07-04-19 | Twins -131 v. A's | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -131 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Oakland is a tough venue for Minnesota. But a pitching matchup of Jose Berrios versus rookie Tanner Anderson and a fair lay price gets me involved with the Twins. Berrios is a top-five American League starter. He has a 2.89 ERA and is going for his eighth straight quality start. In day action this season, Berrios is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA. Minnesota has won six of his last seven road starts and 13 of his past 18 overall starts.  Anderson had a 6.26 ERA in Triple A. His ERA in the majors is 7.13 in 17 2/3 innings. The A's are 0-4 in Anderson's four starts.  The Twins lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. Anderson is a flyball pitcher and the weather forecast is for wind blowing out at nine mph.Â
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07-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
The Dodgers are just too tough especially at home where they have won 43 of their last 55 games. That's a winning percentage of 78 percent.  LA is 9-3 in Walker Buehler's last 12 home games. Buehler is pitching on extra rest. The Dodgers are 9-1 the past 10 times Buehler has pitched on five days rest.  Buehler faced the Diamondbacks a month ago holding them to one run in eight innings while giving up two hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts.  Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.99 road ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts.  The Dodgers' bullpen has been pitching much better than the Diamondbacks' bullpen during the last few weeks. Arizona closer Greg Holland blew a save Tuesday night by walking four straight batters.Â
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07-03-19 | Indians v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
Mike Clevinger might return to his usual solid form following the All-Star break, but right now he isn't very good. This will be Clevinger's second start after missing two months because of a back injury. He gave up a career-high seven runs on five hits and three walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Orioles in his first start since his return. That was five days ago.  The Royals are in good current offensive form averaging 5.2 runs in their last four games.  Danny Duffy starts for Kansas City. He hasn't been good in three years. Duffy has a 5.31 ERA in night games this season. The Over is 9-4 during Duffy's last 13 home starts.  The Indians got their bats going in the opener of this series scoring nine runs. The Royals' relievers give up the second-highest batting average in the American League.Â
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07-02-19 | Yankees v. Mets +135 | 2-4 | Win | 135 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
Anyone flying back to the U.S. from London knows it takes a few days to get back into a normal routine. It's called jet lag. The Yankees are sure to experience it and also are in a letdown spot after scoring 29 runs in sweeping two wins from the Red Sox in London during the weekend. They are leading the AL East by 6 1/2 games.  Now, just two days later, the Yankees are back in action. That's too soon.  The Mets are a dysfunctional bunch, but they do get excited about this series. They faced lefty James Paxton three weeks ago and rocked him for six runs in 2 2/3 innings. The Mets are 7-2 in their last nine games versus a southpaw starter.  Mets starter Zach Wheeler has given up just two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings with 12 strikeouts. Those starts came against two good hitting teams, the Phillies and Cubs.Â
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07-02-19 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
The Nationals are making a move winning 11 of their last 15 games to stay in wild card contention. Washington should beat the Marlins by multiple runs in a pitching matchup of rookie Zac Gallen against Patrick Corbin. As great as Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are, the Marlins probably would least like to face southpaw Corbin.  The Marlins are 11-23 in their last 34 road games against a lefty starter. They rank 12th in the National League against southpaws with a .239 average and have hit the fewest homers in the NL against lefties.  Cobin has dominated Miami in his two previous starts this season going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA.  Gallen will be making his third big league start. The Nationals, though, are familar with him having just faced him this past Wednesday at Miami. The Marlins lost that game, 7-5, with Gallen yielding three earned runs in five innings. Corbin was masterful in that victory allowing one run in seven innings. He struck out nine and gave up just three hits and one walk.Â
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07-01-19 | Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Two weak-hitting teams in a get-away early start Monday game has the right ingredients for an Under.  Kansas City ranks 25th in runs and 27th in homers. The Royals face Blue Jays lefty Clayton Richard, who is coming off his best start of the season. The Royals are 13th in batting average in the American League against lefties hitting .237. Toronto rates 26th in runs and is 29th in batting average. The Blue Jays are going against Glenn Sparkman, who has a 3.06 ERA in day games.Â
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06-30-19 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
There is a Dodgers starter who is capable of pitching well at Coors Field. That starter is Kenta Maeda and he's pitching today. Lifetime against the Rockies, Maeda is 6-3 with a 2.30 ERA. Maeda is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA at Coors Field.  Colorado starter Chi Chi Gonzalez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. This is only his second big league appearance since 2016. Gonzalez gave up three runs on six hits and four walks in five innings against the Giants on the road this past Thursday. Gonzalez still has a ways to go to get rid of his considerable rust. He goes from a strong pitcher's park in San Francisco to making his second big league start in three years at Coors against one of the best and deepest offenses in baseball.  So I see this as a kill spot for the Dodgers, who have lost two in a row to Colorado. If you discount yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Rockies, the Dodgers are averaging 10 runs and nearly three homers a game during their previous five games at Coors.Â
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06-30-19 | Phillies -126 v. Marlins | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Miami has had Philadelphia's number winning the past five times against the Phillies.  This doesn't change the fact that the Phillies are much the superior team and have a starting pitched edge here. Jake Arrieta is past his prime. But the Phillies are 4-0 against the Marlins during Arrieta's last four starts against them. He rates an edge against Trevor Richards and has the better offense to back him up. The Marlins rank 29th in runs and 30th in homers.  Richards is 2-6 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 home starts. He is 1-3 with a 6.64 ER in five lifetime starts versus the Phillies. The Marlins have lost in eight of Richards' past 10 home starts.Â
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06-30-19 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a low total for an American League game and it's not justified.  This isn't 2018 for Blake Snell. He's been terrible this month posting an 11.94 ERA in five June starts. Snell hasn't reached the fifth inning during any of his last three starts. Only four teams are averaging more runs per game than the Rangers.  Jesse Chavez is a converted starter who has been pitching well. Chavez, though, is coming off a season-high in pitches with 79. That's 20 more than he had previously thrown in a game this season. He's due for a regression and the Rangers have the 11th worst bullpen in the American League.Â
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06-29-19 | Diamondbacks -136 v. Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This road price is worthy laying in a pitching matchup of Zack Greinke versus lefty Drew Pomeranz.  Greinke is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his last three road starts. Greinke loves to pitch at Oracle Park where he is 5-0 lifetime with a 1.37 ERA in seven starts.  Arizona has won 72 percent of Greinke's last 47 starts against sub .500 teams.  The Giants are seven games below .500 at home. They rank in the bottom five in batting average, runs and homers. Pomeranz is 2-8 with a 6.79 ERA. He probably shouldn't be in a big league starting rotation. Pomeranz is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in 10 career appearances versus Arizona, including seven starts. The Diamondbacks have the highest batting average and slugging percentage in the National League against lefthanders.Â
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06-29-19 | Twins -160 v. White Sox | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Perhaps tired from losing an 18-inning home game to the Rays on Thursday, the Twins fell to the White Sox, 6-4, at Chicago on Friday. Minnesota has not dropped three games in a row all season.  Look for the Twins to bounce back here. Minnesota is 17-8 in its last 25 away games.  Michael Pineda gets the start. He has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. He has allowed just one homer in his last five starts.Â
 The White Sox have a bottom-seven offense and are without their best hitter, injured Tim Anderson.  White Sox starter Ivan Nova is 0-2 with a 4.66 ERA this month. He has yet to win at home this season going 0-3 with an 8.79 ERA in six starts at Guaranteed Rate Field.   The Twins have a powerful record against weak opponents. Minnesota is 41-16 versus below .500 foes. |
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06-29-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Jose Quintana just isn't very good. He is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in his past six starts and the Cubs are carrying a high bullpen fatigue rating after Cole Hamels could pitch just one inning on Friday.  Luis Castillo is a good young pitcher. But right now he is struggling with a 4.02 ERA in his last three starts. Castillo has a 4.31 day time ERA and is having problems with his control. Castillo has given up 11 walks in his last two starts. The Cubs are the best at drawing walks.  Great American Ball Park is a great hitter's park. Weather conditions are ripe for the offense, too, with temperatures in the 90s and wind blowing out at 8-10 mph.Â
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06-28-19 | A's +122 v. Angels | Top | 7-2 | Win | 122 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Oakland is 7-3 in its last 10 games. The Angels defeated the A's, 8-3, on Thursday. The A's have come back and won the past six times following a loss. I like their chances in this matchup.  Mike Fiers is 5-0 with a 2.51 ERA in his last nine starts. Fiers, a flyball pitcher, is tough when pitching at spacious West Coast ballparks like Angel Stadium. Fiers is 2-0 in two starts against the Angels this season.  The Angels are using this as a bullpen game. Noe Ramirez is expected to pitch the first inning and then be followed by Felix Pena, who is 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA in five career appearances against the A's, including three starts.  Oakland is averaging 5.3 runs per game during its last 10 games.  The Angels do not have a strong bullpen, ranking 10th in relief pitching ERA, and their relievers have been pitching a lot of innings. I prefer Oakland's bullpen even without injured closer Blake Treinen.Â
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06-27-19 | Pirates v. Astros -1.5 | 10-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
I see a kill spot for the Astros here after they were hammered, 14-2, by the Pirates at home on Wednesday. The Astros have won 28 of their 40 home games this season, the best mark in the American League.  The Astros' lineup has gotten even more dangerous with the recent returns of Jose Altuve and George Springer.  Houston draws Joe Musgrove. The Astros know Musgrove, a former teammate. Pittsburgh is 3-10 in Musgrove's last 13 road starts. Musgrove has a 6.57 ERA in day action. Brad Peacock is an excellent pitcher, who is behind the radar being on the same pitching staff with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Peacock has struck out 87 in 82 innings and carries a 1.10 WHIP. Houston is 22-10 in Peacock's last 32 starts.Â
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06-27-19 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Both Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola are having up-and-down seasons. Both, though, are excellent pitchers and coming off strong starts. I trust each of them to do their jobs today especially considering the circumstances, which favor an Under. This is a day time get away game. So some regulars could be sitting. There is a slight wind blowing in and Ryan Blakney is slated to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed 59 percent of the time when he has been the home plate umpire during the last four years, a large sampling of 102 games.Â
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06-26-19 | Nationals -148 v. Marlins | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
The Nationals have been playing better winning six of their last eight games. Lefty Patrick Corbin dominated the Marlins when he faced them a month ago. Corbin went the distance and shut out the Marlins giving up just four hits and one walk. Corbin was a minus $2.50 home favorite against Sandy Alcantara. This price is far lower so I see value on the Nationals even though they are mid-sized chalk.  The Marlins are 17-35 the last 52 times they've faced a lefty starter at home. Rookie Zac Gallen is set to make his second big league start for Miami. He looked good against the Cardinals in his debut. But he is unproven. Corbin isn't. The Nationals have been swinging hot bats, too. If you discount their 2-0 win against the Phillies, the Nationals are averaging 8.3 runs in its last six games.Â
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06-26-19 | Padres v. Orioles +119 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
There is one area the Orioles are good at - beating National League lefties at home. Baltimore is 12-4 the past 16 times hosting an NL foe starting a southpaw. The Padres are going with lefty Matt Strahm, who is in danger of losing his spot in San Diego's starting rotation. Foes have adjusted to Strahm, who has been beaten up for 20 runs during his last four appearances spanning 18 2/3 innings. Strahm has been tagged for eight homers in this time frame and Camden Yards is a great hitter's park.  Dylan Bundy has pitched much better during the past two months. His ERA is a respectable 3.46 in his last nine starts. Bundy has given up three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts.  The Padres have lost eight of their last 10 road games.Â
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06-25-19 | Pirates v. Astros -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
The Astros are ready to roll again after going an embarrassing 1-6 on their just concluded road trip with their last four games coming against the Yankees. Now Houston drops way down in class. The Astros' last four home victories have been by an average of six runs. They are an American League-best 27-11 at home.  Trevor Williams has been struggling for the Pirates with a 5.86 ERA in his last five starts. He was just beat up for seven runs on nine hits in five innings against the Tigers six days ago.  Gerrit Cole is having a magnificent season leading the majors in strikeouts with 148 while walking just 25. He has a career-best 1.02 WHIP. Cole is going to be extra pumped for this matchup. It's the first time he is facing the Pirates after playing his first five years with them.Â
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06-25-19 | Padres v. Orioles OVER 10 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The Padres have been a sneaky good Over team when on the road, which makes sense since they play their home games at spacious, pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  The Over has cashed in 64 percent of San Diego's 37 away games.  I envision each team producing at least five runs in a pitching matchup of Logan Allen versus nominal starter Jimmy Yacbonis as this is going to be a bullpen game for Baltimore. Allen had a brilliant big league debut blanking the Brewers on three hits in seven innings last Tuesday. That was at Petco. Now teams have something to go on with Allen and he's pitching at Camden Yards, a very good hitter's park. Allen wasn't anything special in the minors with a 5.15 ERA in 13 starts at Triple A El Paso. Yacbonis has a 4.70 ERA. He's going to give way to Josh Rogers, who has an 8.25 ERA. The Orioles have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. So a bullpen game for them is courting disaster.Â
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06-25-19 | Mets v. Phillies -139 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
The Mets are in disarray with eight losses in their last 12 games. Walter Lockett, a fill-in starer without decent credentials, is not the pitcher to put a stop to it. The Phillies, on the other hand, regained their swagger burying the Mets, 13-7, Monday night.  Lockett made his season debut this past Thursday against the Cubs and was battered for six earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in a 7-4 loss.  Phillies starter Jake Arrieta allowed just one run on two hits in six innings against the Nationals in his last start this past Wednesday. Arrieta has a career 2.50 ERA against the Mets in 12 starts.  New York is 8-23 in its last 31 road games and have lost in five of its past six visits to Philadelphia. Tuesday Free Play Mariners plus $1.55 at Brewers Zach Davies is 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA. He is not nearly as good as those numbers show. The regression has started. Davies has a 7.82 ERA in his last three stars. He gave up five runs on nine hits in 2 2/3 innings against the Padres at pitcher-friendly Petco Park this past Wednesday during his last start.  Now Davies draws a hot-hitting Mariners club averaging eight runs a game in their past five games.  While Davies is returning to the norm, Seattle starter Marco Gonzales is back pitching well. The lefty is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during each of those outings.  Milwaukee is 10-13 versus southpaw starters.  The Mariners are 5-4 in their last nine road games facing the Angels, Twins and A's during this span.  The Brewers have lost the first game during each of their last four series. |
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06-24-19 | White Sox v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
Lucas Giolito has lived up to his high ceiling this season becoming an elite pitcher. He didn't pitch well in his last start. Prior to that, however, Giolito had surrendered three or fewer runs in each of his last 10 starts. The Under has cashed in seven of Giolito's last nine starts. Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is rounding into shape going seven innings in each of his last two starts. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts. Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four lifetime starts against the White Sox.  The White Sox rank 24th in runs and 25th in homers. They have the second-fewest homers in the American League against lefty pitchers. Chicago isn't in great offensive form either averaging 3.8 runs in its last seven games. Both pitchers should get a boost from the weather conditions, which call for wind blowing in at 7-8 mph.  The Under has won the past six times the two teams have played at Fenway Park.Â
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06-23-19 | Angels v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
Miles Mikolas loves to pitch at Busch Stadium. Mikolas was 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA pitching at Busch Stadium in his first season with the Cardinals last year. He's followed that up with a winning home mark and a 2.55 ERA at Busch this season. The Angels have managed just three runs during the first two games of this series.  St. Louis is 12-4 in Mikolas' last 16 home starts.  Tyler Skaggs has been less effective on the road for the Angels with a 5.27 away ERA. The Cardinals have scored four or more runs in eight of their last 10 games.
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06-23-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -137 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
The Giants are going for a road sweep against the Diamondbacks. I don't see them getting it.  The pitching matchup is Shaun Anderson against Merrill Kelly.  Anderson went against Arizona on May 26. He took the loss in that game allowing six runs, four of which were earned, while allowing nine hits with one walk in five innings. Kelly faced the Giants on May 17. He shut them out in 5 1/3 innings. Kelly is off a rough outing in his start against the Rockies. Prior to that start, though, Kelly had posted a 3-0 mark with a 0.81 ERA in three starts.Â
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06-23-19 | Astros -125 v. Yankees | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Yankees are hot. The Astros are not. This just comes down to trusting Justin Verlander and getting a low enough price to back him.  Houston is 21-5 in Verlander's last 26 road starts. The Astros are 8-1 the past nine times Verlander has pitched on the road versus an above .500 opponent. He has beaten the Yankees four of the last five times he has faced them.  Lefty J.A. Happ goes for New York. He is 6-0 in his last eight starts, but with a 4.29 ERA during this span. Happ has been lucky.  The Astros are 16-6 against lefty starters this season. |
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06-22-19 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Danny Duffy sits unclaimed in the free agent pool in my 12-team American League Rotisserie league. A couple of owners, myself included, picked him up only to discard him after a brief trial period.  The unamimous conclusion is Duffy isn't effective anymore. He wasn't good last season with a 4.88 ERA and he's not good this year with a 4.64 ERA. Duffy is going through another bad stretch with a 7.32 ERA in his last four starts. Now Duffy draws the top offense in baseball. The Royals are 5-13 in Duffy's last 18 starts. Kansas City is 1-7 the past eight times Duffy has faced an above .500 team at home.  Kansas City is 15-24 at home. Minnesota is 25-13 on the road. It's a big reason why the Twins have the best record in the majors.  The Twins' bullpen advantage was on full display when they came from behind to beat the Royals Friday night. Now Minnesota has a monster starting pitching edge with Jose Berrios taking on Duffy. Berrios is an elite level starter, who unlike Duffy, is in great current form with a 1.31 ERA in three starts this month.  Minnesota is 12-4 in Berrios' last 16 starts, including winning his past five road starts.  It shouldn't be too much to ask the Twins, who will get nine innings of at bats, to defeat the Royals by more than one run so we avoid laying such heavy juice.Â
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06-21-19 | Twins -156 v. Royals | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Perhaps the Twins felt a bit of a letdown entering Thursday's first game of this road series against the lowly Royals having just hosted a three-game series with the Red Sox. The Royals upset the Twins on Thursday.  It was Minnesota's second loss in a row. The Twins haven't lost three straight games all season - and I certainly don't see that occurring here.  I like the pitching matchup for Minnesota and the spot as the Twins shouldn't lack motivation and concentration after Kansas City just beat Jake Odorizzi. Kansas City is 5-16 following a victory. The Royals aren't good at home either with a 15-23 mark.  The Twins own the best record in the American League. They are 21-6 following a defeat and have won 65 percent of their road games.  Lefty Martin Perez faces Jakob Junis. Perez is having his finest season with his best strikeout and hit rates of his career. He has a 3.08 lifetime ERA against the Royals in four starts. The Royals are 8-14 versus southpaw starters. Kansas City ranks in the bottom-six in runs and homers. Junis goes against a Twins offense that ranks first in runs and homers and second in batting average. The Twins have seven players with at least 11 homers. The Royals only have one player in their lineup with more than 11 homers. The weather forecast is calling for 13-15 mph winds blowing out, which favor the power-hitting Twins.  Kansas City is without its starting left side of its infield with Adalberto Mondesi and Hunter Dozier both on IL. Mondesi could be the Royals' second best player and Dozier is their second-leading home run hitter.  Junis has a lifetime 0-1 mark with a 4.55 ERA in six starts against the Twins. Minnesota just saw Junis this past Sunday. The Twins collected five hits and three walks, scoring two runs in 3 2/3 innings against Junis.  |
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06-20-19 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
There are four American League teams who are terrible this season - Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Blue Jays. They are teams you would like to fade every day if you could, but the oddsmaker makes that hard to do by assigning heavy juice to their opponent. Baseball being baseball it's not responsible money management to lay huge prices.  The trick to getting around this is the run line where you are confident of beating these bad teams by more than one run. I see that here with the visiting Twins in a pitching matchup of Jake Odorizzi versus Glenn Sparkman.  Odorizzi is have a magical season with a 10-game win streak and 2.24 ERA. Minnesota is 14-3 in his last 17 starts. Odorizzi is backed by the best offense in the majors. Minnesota ranks No. 1 in runs and homers.  The Royals are at their worse going against upper echelon teams. Minnesota has the best record in the American League at 48-24 for a .658 winning percentage. The Royals have lost 50 of the last 62 times when going against a foe with a win percentage above .600.  Sparkman isn't very good and he's been downright terrible against the Twins with an 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA in his career against them. The Twins just got to see Sparkman this past Satureday and scored five runs off him in five innings.  Kansas City ranks 25th in runs and 26th in homers. The Royals also could be without arguably their second-best player, shortstop Adalberto Mondesi. He leads the majors by a wide margin in steals with 27.  Thursday Free Play A's plus $1.02 hosting Rays  Tampa Bay is a good road team. They Rays also have a solid starter going in Charle Morton.  So why go against them?  Three reasons: Price, spot and Frankie Montas.  The Rays find themselves in a tough situation. They just were swept in New York by the Yankees, a huge letdown for them considering that was a showdown for the AL East Division lead. Tampa Bay was outscored 21-4 by the Yankees in the three-game series. The Rays have lost seven of their last nine games and have to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast. The last time the Rays were on West Coast time was early April.  AL East teams often struggle when playing the A's in Oakland. They are used to playing in hitter's parks. The A's, who are 22-17 at home, play in a pitcher's park that has strange dimensions. It is not a popular venue for opposing teams.  I like the righthanded Morton. I just like Montas better. Montas has become an All-Star this season giving up three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 starts. His swinging strike rate has gone from 8.6 percent last year to 11 percent. The Rays have the added disadvantage of never having faced him.  Morton is coming off a subpar start where he allowed four earned runs and two homers in six innings against the Angels this past Saturday. Oakland has won six of its last seven games against a righy starter.Â
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06-19-19 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
Each of these teams should be good to produce at least four runs in a pitching matchup of Trevor Richards versus Daniel Ponce de Leon.  Richards was battered for five runs on 11 hits in just five innings by the Pirates in his last start this past Friday. Richards has a 4.20 night ERA and is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in two career starts versus the Cardinals. Richards can't expect much help either from a terrible Marlins bullpen.  Prior to being shut out on Tuesday, the Cardinals were averaging six runs a game during their previous five games.  Ponce de Leon had a 3.90 ERA in 11 starts at Triple-A Memphis before being recently called up to the majors. Ponce de Leon has walked seven in nine innings during his first two starts this season.   Miami has scored at least four runs in three of its past four games.  Weather-wise, the wind is blowing out at eight mph.Â
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06-19-19 | White Sox +135 v. Cubs | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
Lucas Giolito is an emerging superstar. Jon Lester is on the downside of his career. Stats and current form reflect this. Giolito is riding an eight-game win streak. That's what happens when you have a 0.94 ERA during this span. The White Sox are 11-1 in Giolito's last 12 starts.  The 35-year-old Lester already has hit a wall this season with a 7.59 ERA in his last six starts. Lester was battered for three homers and six runs in five innings against the Dodgers during his last start this past Thursday.  The price is high on the Cubs because they are home and considered a much better team than the White Sox. However, the White Sox have won 12 of their last 19 games while the Cubs are just 10-15 in their last 25 games. |
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06-18-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
Look for the Dodgers to rebound in big fashion after losing, 3-2, at home to the Giants on Monday.  LA is going with lefty Clayton Kershaw, who is 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA against San Francisco. That 1.72 ERA consists of 330 1/3 innings, too.  San Francisco is 8-13 versus southpaw starters. The Giants rank among the bottom-three in runs, batting average and homers. They aren't likely to have Pablo Sandoval, who has the Giants' highest batting average and is tied for the team lead in homers. He suffered a hand injury last night.  The Giants sneaked past the Dodgers on Monday behind rookie Tyler Beede. Now the Giants are trying to do it again with another rookie, Shaun Anderson. The Dodgers rank 12th in runs and have smacked the seventh-most homers in the majors. Of the Giants' last 11 losses, 10 have been by more than one run.Â
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06-18-19 | Royals v. Mariners -123 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
The buy sign is back on Yusei Kikuchi after the lefty held the Twins - the AL's top-scoring team - to one run on six hits in five innings this past Thursday on the road.  The buy sign is never on Homer Bailey, who has a 5.37 ERA. Expect that already-horrible ERA to go up even more as Bailey's ERA has been above 6.00 during the previous three years.  Seattle is the far superior offensive team, too, ranking eighth in the majors in runs and No. 2 in homers. Kansas City, by contrast, rates 25th in runs and 26th in homers.  The Royals are 7-13 against lefty starters this season. They have won just 28 percent of their last 61 away contests. The Mariners have dominated this series winning nine of the last 10 times, including posting a 4-1 mark this season.Â
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06-18-19 | Indians v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a below-the-radar starting pitching matchup of rookie Zach Plesac versus Adrian Sampson.  Plesac has made four big league starts. He's given up two or fewer earned runs in three of them and has a 2.92 ERA. Plesac has allowed two runs on eight hits with nine strikeouts on the road spanning 12 1/3 innings. The Rangers have never faced him. Plesac draws the Rangers dealing with three key injuries. Joey Gallo and rejuvenated Hunter Pence are on IL. Nomar Mazara has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury. Gallo and Pence rank first and second, respectively, on the Rangers in homers.  The Under has cashed in 11 of Texas' last 14 home games.  Sampson has turned his season around going 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA in his last six starts. The righty has a 2.70 ERA at home. Cleveland hasn't ever gone against him.  The Under is 18-7-1 the past 26 times the Indians have faced a righty starter.Â
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06-17-19 | Astros v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Luis Castillo has become an ace this season. He is 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA. Castillo has been especially dominant at home compiling a 1.87 ERA at Great American Ball Park. Castillo is in great current form, too, with a 1.56 ERA during his past three starts. The Astros have the added disadvantage of never having faced Castillo.  Keep in mind, too, Houston has been minus three injured stars - Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa.   But what about Astros starter Wade Miley? He certainly doesn't have the star quality of Castillo. But Miley has been good for more than a year now with a 2.85 ERA during his last 30 starts. The 32-year-old Miley has become a highly reliable, solid starter late in his career. The lefty has given up three runs or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts this year. Miley is coming off six scoreless innings against the Orioles.  Great American Ball Park is an excellent hitter's park. But like Castillo, Miley has shown he can pitch well there going 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in six career starts. Cincinnati ranks 21st in slugging percentage against southpaws.  There is no DH, which is a huge plus for the Under. So are the relief pitchers. The Astros and Reds each rank in the top-four in bullpen ERA. The Astros have all of their top bullpen arms rested and ready. So do the Reds.Â
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06-16-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
We have two top-10 offenses here in a pitching matchup of Jose Quintana versus Hyun-Jin Ryu.  I'm not a fan of Quintana especially on the road where he has a 5.13 ERA. The Over has cashed in six of Quintana's last eight road starts. The Cubs' bullpen remains unsettled until Craig Kimbrel takes over as closer.  Ryu is having a Cy Young-type season. Ryu isn't that good. Regression is due. He has a 4.24 career ERA against the Cubs in three previous starts.  D.J. Reyburn is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has won 60 percent of the time Reyburn has been behind the plate the past two seasons spanning 43 games.Â
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06-16-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 12-0 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Toronto has much to celebrate with the Raptors. Toronto has nothing to celebrate, though, with the Blue Jays, losers of 17 of their last 22 games.  The Astros have blasted the overmatched Blue Jays, 22-4, in the first two games of this series. I'm expecting the Astros to manhandle Toronto once again so have no qualms about laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to reduce the heavy juice.  Houston is averaging 8.7 runs in its last four games. Each of Toronto's last 10 defeats have been by more than one run.  The pitching matchup is Trent Thornton, who has a 4.78 ERA, facing Brad Peacock, who is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven starts with 45 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings during this span.  The Astros are 22-8 in Peacock's last 30 starts, including 6-1 this season during his home starts.Â
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06-15-19 | Cardinals +125 v. Mets | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
The Cardinals are playing much better than the Mets having won nine of their last 14. The Mets have lost three of their last four. Noah Syndergaard was sick earlier in the week and is having a down season. He's been especially bad at night with a 5.88 ERA in evening games. The Mets are 1-4 in his last five starts. New York's bullpen has been terrible, too, even closer Edwin Diaz is having a subpar season.  St. Louis starter Michael Wacha looked like a new pitcher in his first start off the DL from a knee injury throwing six scoreless innings against the Marlins. The buy sign is back on Wacha at this underdog price.Â
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06-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
It doesn't matter for Houston that Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa are all out. The Astros have tremendous offensive depth and young talent such as highly-touted Yordan Alvarez. He's slugged three homers in his first four games with the Astros.  The Astros are averaging 9.3 runs in their last three games. They should have no problem teeing off on struggling Clayton Richard, who has a 7.04 ERA and probably isn't likely to remain in Toronto's starting rotation much longer. Richard has failed to reach the sixth inning in any of his starts either. So the Astros will get shots at Toronto's weak bullpen, which is minus injured closer Ken Giles.  Good-looking lefty Framber Valdez gets the start for Houston. He has a 2.41 home ERA in eight appearances and is backed by an eilte bullpen. All of Houston's top relief arms are rested, too, following Friday's 15-2 blowout victory.  The Blue Jays rank 13th out of 15 American League teams in batting average against lefthanders.Â
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06-15-19 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -1.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks couldn't do much against Max Scherzer on Friday and I don't see them doing anything against Stephen Strasburg, who like Scherzer is having a big season. The Nationals have shown a lot of life lately winning 13 of their last 19 games. All of their last nine victories have been by more than one run making it worth backing them on the run line to reduce the heavy juice.  The Diamondbacks have lost six of their last seven games to the Nationals. They are not in a good spot here having to go with Taylor Clarke, who probably should be removed from their starting rotation. Clarke has a 9.58 ERA in his last three starts. He also has a 5.66 road ERA.Â
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06-15-19 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Charlie Morton always has been tough in day games. This year is no exception as Morton is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in day action. Morton is having a superb season, too, winning 11 straight decisions. He is unscored upon in 14 innings this month with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk June ratio. The Angels are going with rookie lefty Jose Suarez, who has a 4.35 ERA and will be making just his third big league start. Suarez had a 3.91 ERA in five games, including four starts, with Salt Lake in Triple A before coming up to the Angels. The Rays are 15-9 against lefty starters and have the fourth-highest batting average in the American League against southpaws.  It's tough for the visitor to play in quirky Tropicana Field. The Angels have lost in five of their last six visits. This early start is a disadvantage, too, for the West Coast team.Â
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06-14-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | 2-15 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
The Astros are 25-10 at home, but coming off a rare defeat at Minute Maid Park. That occurred to the Brewers in extra innings on Wednesday. The Astros were idle on Thursday. I'm expecting a strong focused effort from them. They have the right pitching matchup to blow out the Blue Jays. Toronto is going with Aaron Sanchez, who has yielded nine earned during his last two starts spanning 12 innings. Sanchez gives up too many walks. Only three pitchers give up more bases on balls than Sanchez.  The Blue Jays are 2-7 in their last nine road games. Toronto buried the Orioles, 12-3, at Balitmore on Thursday. However, the Blue Jays are 2-9 following a victory. Gerrit Cole is one of the top pitchers in the American League. He's leading the majors in strikeouts. The Astros are 18-5 in Cole's last 23 home starts. Cole is holding opponents to a .196 batting average at home.  Unlke Sanchez, Cole is in excellent current form with a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts.Â
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06-14-19 | Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
There isn't a hotter pitcher in baseball than Lucas Giolito. He hasn't allowed a run during three of his last four starts, including the past two. Giolito's ERA is 0.88 during his last four starts.  The Under has cashed in each of Giolito's last seven starts. The Yankees' lineup isn't nearly so fierce because of their many injuries. Giolito has a rested Alex Colome in the bullpen if needed.  CC Sabathia has a 19-7 career mark against the White Sox with a 3.67 ERA in 38 starts. Sabathia faced the Whie Sox on April 13 and gave up only one hit in five scoreless innings.  The White Sox rank 22nd in runs and 25th in homers.  Todd Tichenor is slated to be behind the plate. The Under is 8-4 when Tichenor has been the home plate ump. There are brisk winds blowing in Chicago, but they are more of a cross-wind.Â
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06-12-19 | Brewers v. Astros -124 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -124 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
The oddsmaker is overrating the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff by making Houston such a short home favorite. The Astros haven't missed Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa going 28-8 (78%) during their last 36 games.  The Astros have outstanding young talent to fill in while these superstars are out with injuries. Yordan Alvarez and Tyler White, two of these highly promising youngsters, slugged homers in helping Houston defeat Milwaukee, 10-8, on Tuesday.  That loss dropped the Brewers to 1-8 in their last nine road interleague games.  Woodruff has been pitching well for Milwaukee. But he's trumped by Justin Verlander, who is in the argument for best pitcher in the American League. Verlander is 9-2 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. Opponents are batting only .151 against him. Verlander is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in two career starts versus the Brewers.  Verlander has a 1.35 ERA at home this season. Woodruff has a 4.03 road ERA in five away starts this season.Â
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06-11-19 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
This isn't such a big total to go Over for two American League teams. Unless those teams happen to be the Tigers and Royals. Detroit ranks last in the American League in runs scored. The Tigers also have hit the fewest homers in the league.  The Royals rank 11th in the AL in runs. They have hit the second-fewest homers in the AL.  Kansas City has scored three or fewer runs in seven of its last nine games. They are facing underrated Spencer Turnbull, who has given up three or fewer runs in 12 of his 13 starts. Turnbull has held the Royals to three earned runs in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA in two starts against them this year.  The Under has cashed in eight of Turnbull's last 11 starts.  Kansas City is pitching Jakob Junis, who is better than his 5.63 ERA may indicate. Junis is 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA in nine lifetime appearances against the Tigers, including eight starts.Â
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06-11-19 | Brewers v. Astros UNDER 9 | 8-10 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
Since making a mechanical change, Brad Peacock has posted a 1.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in his past six starts spanning 34 innings. The Brewers are going to be in for some cultural shock having never faced Peacock.  The Astros have never faced Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta either. Peralta has a high ceiling and already has had a number of dominating performances in just his second big league season. He is coming off his best start of the season, a 5-1 win against the Marlins in which he had nine strikeouts, gave up no walks and just four hits in six innings.  Houston's offense is down with Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve all injured. It's a reason why the Under has cashed in 71 percent of the Astros' last 24 games.  Both teams have upper tier bullpens. Each bullpen is rested, too, with the teams having been idle on Monday.Â
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06-11-19 | Brewers v. Astros -111 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
It's rarely wrong to back the Astros especially when the price is fair, which it is here. Houston is 27-8 in its last 35 games and is tied for the best winning percentage in the majors.  Houston has key injuries, but also has a very strong farm system. Because of that the Astros have been able to cover up their injuries.  The Astros are 21-8 in Brad Peacock's last 29 starts. Peacock is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. He's overshadowed in Houston by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. But he's a tremendous pitcher giving up two runs or less in eight of his 11 starts.  The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight interleague road games. They are a solid National League club, but not at the Astros' elite level.  Milwaukee is pitching Freddy Peralta, who has shown flashes but remains highly inconsistent. He has a 6.23 night ERA this season.Â
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06-10-19 | Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 8 | 4-1 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
It's a leap of faith to believe Michael Wacha is going to come in with a well-pitched game. He's in the midst of a dreadful season with a 6.30 ERA.  The Marlins have picked up their offense scoring five or more runs in 11 of their last 19 games.  The Cardinals' scoring is down lately. But the Cardinals just faced the Cubs drawing Cole Hamels, Jon Lester and Lance Hendricks with the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field during their series.  St. Louis should find Sandy Alcantara and a horrendous Marlins bullpen much easier to solve.  The Over is 7-2-1 the last 10 times the teams have met in Miami.Â
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06-10-19 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
The A's have lost their last nine games when taking on an American League East opponent. Don't expect them to end that streak in this matchup. The spot and pitching matchup is so much against them that I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to get a much better price on Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton is 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA. He has established himself as one of the better pitchers in the American League.  Going for Oakland is Tanner Anderson. He pitched six games in relief for the Pirates last season and had a 6.35 ERA. This will be his big league starting debut. Anderson had a 6.26 ERA in 11 games in Triple A this season. The A's are in a desperate pitching spot after playing a doubleheader on Saturday and then playing again on Sunday not arriving in Tampa Bay until late. Tampa Bay is averaging 6.1 runs in its last seven games discounting a 5-1 loss to Boston. |
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06-09-19 | Nationals v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Stephen Strasburg isn't going to lack movitation pitching in his hometown against the Padres. The Over, though, is 8-2 the past 10 times Strasburg has faced San Diego. Strasburg is backed by a horrific bullpen. The Nationals' only good reliever is closer Sean Doolittle, who has appeared in four of Washington's last five games, including the last two days. So Doolittle is carrying a fatigue rating.  The Padres are an underrated power team ranking ninth in the majors in homers. Their offense is more dangerous with the return of Fernando Tatis Jr.  The Nationals should provide their share of runs as the Padres are going with a bullpen game probably starting Luis Perdomo.  Adrian Johnson is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed in 60 percent of his 40 home plate appearances the past two yearsÂ
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06-09-19 | Braves v. Marlins +125 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
I'll take a shot with the Marlins at this plus price. I favor Miami's starting pitching matchup and the Braves could be resting a starter or two, which would help even up the everyday lineup advantage. Pablo Lopez has been tremendous when pitching at Marlins Park this year going 2-1 with a 1.84 ERA in five home starts. Lopez is in good current form, too, with a 1.99 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are batting .183 against him during this span.  The opposite is true of Braves starter Max Fried. The lefty has a 5.18 ERA during his last eight starts. He's really looked bad in his last two starts giving up nine earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. Fried has a 5.63 career ERA in two starts versus the Marlins. Miami is 15-30 against righthanded starters this year. However, the Marlins are a far more respectable 8-9 when going against a southpaw starter.
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06-08-19 | A's v. Rangers +119 | 1-3 | Win | 119 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Texas starter Adrian Sampson is below-the-radar right now. He's developed a couple of new pitches and he has been pitching well winning his last four appearances. During this time Sampson has posted a 2.38 ERA.  The Rangers enter play today ranked No. 2 in the majors in runs scored and are 12-4 in their last 16 home games. Texas draws righthander Chris Bassitt, who has pitched decently this season but has a 5.25 lifetime ERA against the Rangers in four appearances, including two starts. The Rangers enter today winning nine of their last 12 versus a righty starter.
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06-08-19 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 9 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
The Astros don't need injured Jose Altuve and George Springer to score at least four runs against Andrew Cashner and a bad Baltimore bullpen. Cashner has an above 5.00 ERA for the second straight season. Houston is averaging 6.3 runs in its last six games discounting a 14-1 loss to the Mariners. The Astros have scored at least four runs in six of their last seven games.  The Over has cashed in eight of Cashner's last 10 starts. The Orioles could do some damage against Framber Valdez, a relief pitcher making his first start of the season. He's had control issues with a 1.35 WHIP having issued 37 walks in 63 innings.  Ramon DeJesus is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 8-3 in his games as a home plate umpire this year.Â
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06-08-19 | White Sox -129 v. Royals | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
The White Sox are 7-0 in Lucas Giolito's last seven starts. It's no fluke as Giolito has emerged as one of the top pitchers in the American League. He's surrendered just five runs in his last six starts spanning 43 2/3 innings. Giolito is 5-0 with a 2.43 ERA in nine lifetime starts against the Royals, including defeating them, 4-3, on May 28 where he recorded 10 strikeouts.  Kansas City is 1-7 in Keller's last eight starts. The Royals beat the White Sox, 6-4, on Friday. However, they are just 3-12 in their last 15 games and 1-8 following a victory. Kansas City also is 0-8 the past eight times when playing the second game of a series.Â
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06-08-19 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
So who was the best pitcher in the American League during May? None other than Lucas Giolito, who this season has broken through and lived up to his vast potential. He is 7-0 with a 1.92 ERA in his last nine starts. Giolito should be able to tame a weak Royals lineup that ranks in the bottom 10 in runs and is without their second-leading home run hitter, Hunter Dozier.   The Under is 6-0 in Giolito's last six starts. Brad Keller is going for the Royals. The Under is 5-1 in his last six starts. Keller hasn't given up a home run in his last seven starts. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs and 25th in homers. The weather forecast is for wind to be blowing in at eight mph. Another plus for the Under is Bruce Dreckman is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed in 71 percent of his last 51 games behind the plate. |
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06-07-19 | A's +105 v. Rangers | 5-3 | Win | 105 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker opened a wrong favorite here. The A's have dominated the Rangers winning 25 of the past 34 meetings, including going 5-1 during their last six visits to Texas. The Rangers have lost the first game in 11 of their last 14 series. The A's are playing great on the road winning eight of their past nine.  The pitching matchup pits Brett Anderson against Lance Lynn. Anderson has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. Lynn faced the A's on April 23 and was hammered for eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings. I'd rate Anderson a slight edge against Lynn and Oakland with a major edge when it comes to the bullpen.Â
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06-06-19 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
David Hess shouldn't be in a big league rotation. But he is. So the Over makes a worthy investment in this matchup. Hess has a 7.36 ERA. He's bad and so is Baltimore's bullpen. They are facing a Rangers squad that has scored the second-most runs in the majors.  Texas starter Ariel Jurado pitched well in his last start. That was against the weak-hitting Royals, though. He also threw more than 100 pitches for the first time this season. The Rangers' bullpen is every bit as bad as the Orioles' bullpen.  The temperature is going to reach the 90's and there will be a slight wind blowing out. So the weather conditions are favorable for the hitters.Â
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06-06-19 | Braves v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | 1-6 | Win | 105 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Hey Kevin Glausman isn't pitching so the Under should be safe. Kidding aside, the pitching matchup is Mike Foltynewicz versus Chris Archer. Both Foltynewicz and Archer have struggled this season. But lately both have shown signs of pitching much better. Foltynewicz's fastball and slider have been sharper during his last three starts. Archer had his most efficient start of the year against the Brewers this past Friday. Archer has a 1.08 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta. There are other key elements that point to an Under. This is a day game following a late Wednesday night game that didn't end until after midnight due a two-hour rain delay. The Braves didn't have to use any of their best bullpen arms last night. There could be some key bats being rested because of the short turnaround and this being a getaway game.  Rob Drake is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 17-9 (65 percent) the past two seasons when he has been behind the plate, including 8-2 Under this year.
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06-05-19 | Marlins v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 104 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Thanks to the Marlins, I cashed an easy Over the total winner on these teams Tuesday. The over/under number is the same as Tuesday. So I am coming right back and going Over again in a pitching matchup of Sandy Alcantara against Jimmy Nelson.  Milwaukee has hit the third-most homers in baseball. Alcantara is far from a fixture in Miami's starting rotation. He has a 4.08 ERA, which goes up to 5.11 when he pitches on the road. This will be his sixth away start.  Nelson hasn't pitched in the majors during the last 21 months having been sidelined by elbow problems. He had a 3.75 ERA in four Triple A starts. It's asking a lot for Nelson to hold the hot-hitting Marlins in check. Nelson also isn't likely to pitch too far into the game.  The Marlins are averaging 6.4 runs in their last 18 games. They have scored a staggering 34 runs in their last three games.  The Over is 10-3-1 the past 14 times the teams have met at Miller Park.  Note, too, that the slated home plate umpire is Tripp Gibson III. The Over has cashed in 60 percent of Gibson's last 112 appearances behind the plate spanning the last five seasons. |
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06-04-19 | Marlins v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 16-0 | Win | 105 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
The stats show the Marlins to be last in the league in runs scored averaging 3.3 runs a game. But that is misleading. The Marlins have made several recent changes to their lineup. The result is a much more respectable offense.  Miami has scored four or more runs in nine of its last 13 games. The Marlins have plated at least five runs in eight of those games. Miami just scored a combined 18 runs in its last two games - both at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors.  Now the Marlins visit Miller Park, one of the better hitting fields in baseball. The Over is 9-3-1 the past 13 times the teams have played in Milwaukee.  The Brewers get to face Pablo Lopez. He has been tough at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, but awful on the road with an 8.26 ERA in six away matchups. The Brewers faced Lopez last July 10. They scored five runs off him on six hits and three walks in six innings.  I'm not expecting much from Lopez and a bad Miami bullpen in this road setting. The Brewers rank No. 3 in homers and 10th in runs scored. They are expected to get back Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw to give them a lot of infield power.  Chase Anderson will be on the hill for Milwaukee. He's split his time starting and relieving, having yet to throw more than five innings in a game this season. Anderson is a bottom of the rotation starter.  So it's certainly not too much to expect each of these two teams to produce at least four runs apiece. Tuesday Free Play Nationals minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.25 (run line) hosting White Sox  It has taken two months, but the Nationals are finally rounding into form winning seven of their last nine games. A key for the Nationals is a return to health of a number of key batters.  The danger with backing the Nationals - who are averaging 6.5 runs during their last nine games - is their horrible middle and setup relief pitching and Dave Martinez, who I regard as the worst manager in the majors.  Those negatives should be overcome by the Nationals hosting the White Sox and going with Stephen Strasburg. I can't lay the asking price, so I'll take a shot on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs at greatly reduced juice.  The White Sox just concluded a 6-1 homestand. Prior to that, though, they were outscored 26-5 by the Twins in their last three road games. The White Sox's last nine defeats have all been by more than one run. Chicago is 6-21 in its last 27 interleague road games.  The White Sox are going with Reynaldo Lopez, who is pitching against his former team. The flip side to Lopez's obvious extra motivation is the Nationals know him while the current White Sox are unfamiliar with Strasburg. Lopez is 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA. He has been at his worst on the road where his ERA is 7.78. The White Sox have lost in his last five road starts.  Lopez is in bad current form, too, allowing 13 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 9 1/3 innings. By contrast, Strasburg has a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts.  Strasburg has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He is an elite pitcher especially when pitching at Nationals Park. Washington is 29-10 (74 percent) in Strasburg's last 39 home starts versus sub .500 teams. |
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06-03-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 103 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
Both teams have been swinging hot bats. The Dodgers have a very potent offense. I acknowledge all this before stating my case for the Under.  However, I see a pitching duel between Walker Buehler and Robbie Ray.  Buehler is one of my favorite young pitchers. He's been solid on the road, too, with a 3-1 record a 3.94 ERA in road games this season.  Ray has limited opponents to a .216 batting average in four home starts. Ray has a career-mark of 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Dodgers. Ray is one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball. He has whiffed 130 Dodgers hitters in 95 2/3 innings.  The Dodgers have a top closer in Kenley Jansen while Greg Holland is enjoying a fine season as Arizona's closer.Â
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06-02-19 | Indians +131 v. White Sox | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Luis Giolito seemingly has turned the corner. He's pitched well all season. The White Sox are improved and the Indians have looked terrible. But I'm going to back the Indians at this plus price.  Cleveland still is the superior team. The Indians are pitching rookie Zach Plesac, who impressed in his big league debut this past Tuesday at Boston. He held the Red Sox to one run on four hits and one walk in 5 1/3 innings. Now he is stepping down in class. Plesac had a 1.41 ERA in nine minor league starts with a 56-to-7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio before being called up.  Giolito has a 4.41 lifetime ERA against the Indians.Â
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06-02-19 | Nationals -121 v. Reds | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
I consider Max Scherzer the best pitcher in the National League, if not all of baseball. Sonny Gray is a "C" level pitcher at best and that may be a generous assesment.  So I very much like this price point. Scherzer is having another strong year this season despite his 2-5 record. He has made seven straight quality appearances. Scherzer was 2-0 versus the Reds last season with a 1.50 ERA.  Washington has won 67 percent of Scherzer's past 58 road starts. The Nationals also are 4-0 in Scherzer's last four starts against Cincinnati.  Gray has a 4.18 in six home starts this season. He's vulnerable pitching at Great American Ball Park, which is a top hitter's park.  The Nationals have dominated the Reds at Great American Ball Park winning nine of the past 10 times.Â
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06-01-19 | Tigers v. Braves -1.5 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
I like the Braves to bounce back in a big way against the Tigers after an 8-2 loss on Friday.  So does the oddsmaker. Hence the big price. So the alternative is to back the Braves on the run line in order to greatly reduce the vigorish. Detroit is 4-17 in Daniel Norris' last 21 starts, including 1-6 in his last seven outings.  The Braves are going with the best rookie pitcher in baseball, Mike Soroka. He has a 1.07 ERA, not allowing more than one earned run in eight appearances. Atlanta is 6-0 in Soroka's starts versus sub .500 opponents.  The Tigers rank 29th in runs and homers. They are going to be without Miguel Cabrera, too. He's out with a swollen knee.
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06-01-19 | Royals v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Homer Bailey is pitching. That always means a strong look to the Over. Bailey has a 5.79 ERA - and this is one of his lower ERA's going back the last few years. Bailey faced the Rangers last month and was battered for five earned runs on eight hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings. Lance Lynn is past his better days. He has thrown 236 pitches in his last two starts. He's vulnerable, too, here.   Both teams have bottom-five type bullpens.  The temperatures are going to be in the high 80s with no wind. Ryan Blakney is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 4-1 in his home plate appearances this season.
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05-31-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
Look for an Under in this battle of lefthanded starting pitchers, Chris Sale versus J.A. Happ.  Sale has been pitching much better than he was earlier in the season posting a 2.23 ERA in his last five starts. Sale has a 1.87 career ERA in 18 career regular season appearances versus the Yankees, including 15 starts. He has a 2.36 career ERA in nine appearances at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees rank 21st in batting and 27th in homers versus lefthanded pitching. The Red Sox have gone Under the past eight times when facing an above .500 opponent.  Happ looked good in his last start giving up three runs with 10 strikeouts in six innings against the Royals last Saturday. Happ has a 3.05 lifetime ERA against Boston in 22 regular season appearances, including 21 starts. The Red Sox rank 15th against southpaw pitchers. Happ is backed by the fourth-best bullpen in the majors. The Under is 7-1-1 in the Yankees' last nine home games. Weather shouldn't factor as there is just a slight breeze. |
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05-30-19 | Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 10.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
This one has the feel of a zig-zag after the Phillies' 11-4 victory against the Cardinals Wednesday night. It's a day time getaway game so regulars could be sitting out, perhaps even Bryce Harper. He was removed from last night's game after fouling a ball off his right foot.  Even though there were 15 runs scored last night neither team had to use any of their key relievers.  The pitching matchup is Dakota Hudson versus Jerad Eickhoff. These are middle-of-the-road starters who are a big underrated. Hudson has been pitching much better. He hasn't yielded more than two earned runs in four of his last five starts. Eickhoff is not in good current form, but has a decent 3.60 home ERA. The Under has cashed in eight of his last 11 home starts.  There is only a slight wind and it's blowing to center. The Under should be helped by Kerwin Danley being the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed in 82 percent of the last 12 times he's been behind the plate.
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05-28-19 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
Before we get to the starting pitchers let's look at who isn't going to play. Kris Bryant is doubtful with a neck injury. On the Houston side, Jose Altuve and George Springer are out. That's a lot of missing star power. The Astros' offense is really missing Altuve and Springer. Houston is averaging just 3.3 runs in its last nine games. The Under has cashed in 10 of Houston's last 11 games. Veteran Jon Lester can give the Cubs a quality start while pitching deep into the game.  The Astros are going with Corbin Martin, a promising rookie who is backed by an excellent bullpen with a top set-up man (Ryan Pressly) and dominant closer, Roberto Osuna.Â
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05-27-19 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
Just six days ago, Lance Lynn and Tommy Milone faced each other at Texas. The over/under was 11 1/2. Lynn pitched well in that game helping the Rangers win, 5-3.  But now the total is two runs less that what it was last Tuesday. The venue has switched to Seattle's T-Mobile Park, a better pitcher's park. But the two starting pitchers remain the same.  I contend the oddsmaker can't set a total less than double-digits when Milone is one of the starter's involved especially when opposing an over-the-hill pitcher coming off a season-high 120 pitches and backed by a terrible bullpen. That's how many pitches Lynn threw against the Mariners on Tuesday.  The Mariners have hit the second-most homers in the majors. Lynn has always been vulnerable to the long ball.  Milone, though, never is a bargain. I'm surprised he's even managed to crack a big league starting rotation again. He has a career 4.45 ERA against the Rangers in 11 career starts. Texas ranks No. 2 in runs scored.  The Over is 11-5-1 in the Rangers' last 16 road games, while the Over is 9-2-1 in the Mariners' past 12 home games.Â
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05-26-19 | Orioles v. Rockies -1.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
The Orioles have the worst record in the majors and David Hess is probably their worst starting pitcher. The Orioles are 3-14 in their last 17 games, 1-7 during their past eight. They have lost by more than one run during 11 of their last 12 defeats.  Hess is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA. Baltimore is 3-14 during his last 17 road starts. The Rockies are averaging 6.5 runs in their last six games. Hess is backed up by one of the three worst bullpens in the majors.  Colorado is starting German Marquez, who is 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his last three starts. Marquez has a 2.48 ERA in day games. The Rockies are 9-2 in his last 11 home starts when going against an opponent with a losing record.Â
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05-26-19 | Dodgers v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The Dodgers have scored seven or more runs in four of their last five games. The Over has cashed in LA's past five games. Look for that streak to continue here in a pitching matchup of Kenta Maeda versus Chris Archer. Maeda isn't nearly as good on the road as he is at Dodger Stadium. His history has held up this season. Maeda is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA on the road. He has a career 4.05 ERA versus the Pirates in two starts.  Archer hasn't been good at all for the Pirates with a 5.55 ERA. Archer has made two starts since returning from the injured list and there hasn't been much improvement as he has given up nine earned runs on 10 hits and six walks in 8 2/3 innings.  The Over has cashed nine of the last 10 times in this series.Â
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05-25-19 | Red Sox +118 v. Astros | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
David Price is healthy and back in form. He has a 2.17 ERA in his last five starts with 33 strikeouts during this span. The Astros aren't likely to have two of their most dangerous and best hitters with George Springer and Jose Altuve each hurt. Springer injured his hamstring Friday night and could be headed to the injured list where Altuve resides also because of a hamstring injury.  The Astros are pitching Brad Peacock. I like Peacock, but he is still striving for consistency.  Boston has turned around its season going 16-7 in his last 23 games. The Red Sox also have back their most dangerous power hitter, J.D. Martinez. He played Friday after missing the past four games due to a back injury.  Houston is 3-3 in its last six games.Â
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05-24-19 | Padres v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Joey Lucchesi has yet to prove he can pitch effectively outside of Petco Park. Trent Thornton has yet to show he can pitch well at Rogers Centre. So it's not asking much for each of these teams to produce at least four runs apiece. Lucchesi has an 8.10 road ERA. The Blue Jays have scored 17 runs in their last three games. They have been a strong Over team in interleague play going above the total in 17 of their past 25 games versus NL opponents.  Thornton is 0-3 with a 6.75 home ERA. He hasn't been sharp either with a 5.27 ERA in his last three starts.  The Padres' offense is more dangerous outside of Petco Park especially in an AL park where they can use a DH. San Diego has scored four or more runs in nine of its last 14 away games.Â
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05-24-19 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
Helped by the recent additions of Garrett Cooper and Harold Ramirez into their starting lineup, the Marlins have scored 16 runs in their last three games. They face Kyle McGowin, who has a 6.00 ERA and only is in Washington's starting rotation due to injuries to Jeremy Hellickson and Anibal Sanchez. McGowin has been mainly used in relief. He isn't expected to pitch deep into the game and Washington has one of the worst bullpens in the majors. The Nationals have scored five or more runs in six of their last nine games. A big reason for this is they have gotten healthy with the exception of Ryan Zimmerman. Pablo Lopez gets the start for Miami. He has a 5.06 ERA. Lopez has gone against the Nationals twice and the results have not been pretty - a 7.59 ERA. The Marlins' bullpen also is highly vulnerable.  These teams have a strong Over history when playing in Washington with the Over cashing 13 of the past 16 times.Â
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05-22-19 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 9-11 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
The marquee pitching matchup of the day pits Max Scherzer against Jacob deGrom. But based on how well they have pitched this season, Luis Castillo versus Zach Davies isn't far behind those two superstars.  Castillo has a 1.90 ERA. The Under has cashed in his last seven road starts. Davies has a 1.54 ERA. The Under is 4-0 during his last four home starts. That's a combined 11-0 Under mark in this situation from the two starters. Both bullpens are above average, too.  The Brewers' offense is much less potent without reigning NL MLVP Christian Yelich, who didn't play on Tuesday due to back spasms. The Reds' lineup could really use Yasiel Puig, who has been out with a shouder injury.Â
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05-21-19 | Reds v. Brewers -125 | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
The Reds have lost 40 of their past 57 road games, including going 9-15 away from home this season. They are 4-7 versus southpaws this season and facing Brewers southpaw Gio Gonzalez at Miller Park.  The Brewers have won 67 percent of their home games this year going 16-8.  Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in four starts this season. Milwaukee is 9-2 in his last 11 starts going back to last season. Gonzalez is 6-3 career-wise versus the Reds with a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts.  The Reds could be without Yasiel Puig, who suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday.  Reds starter Sonny Gray is 0-4 with a 4.30 ERA. Gray has yet to reach the seventh inning this season and is not a good fit pitching at homer-friendly Miller Park.Â
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05-20-19 | Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 11 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
Step to the head of the class if you knew that Mike Minor had the lowest ERA of any lefty starter in the American League. Minor has allowed only five runs in his last four starts and has a 2.61 ERA on the season. He goes deep into games, too, having pitched at least seven innings in five of his last eight starts.  The Under has cashed in 10 of Minor's past 13 home starts.Â
 The Rangers' vulnerable bullpen could get a boost if Shawn Kelley, their most consistent reliever and recently appointed closer, is activated from the injured list. Kelley has been out after having a pair of lymph nodes surgically removed. He threw a simulated game Sunday.  This total is high because Mike Leake is going for Seattle and Globe Life Park is an outstanding hitter's park. Leake has been pitching much better, though, with a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts. Globe Life Park becomes far more of a hitter's park during the muggy summer months. The weather forecast for tonight's game is winds gusting in at 23 mph. |
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05-19-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks' last three victories have been by an average of eight runs. I like Arizona to beat the Giants, enough to lay the run line to get a plus price instead of risk laying heavy juice.  Drew Pomeranz is coming off the injured list to start for the Giants. Pomeranz has been highly inconsistent and isn't likely to go deep into the game, which would put the Giants' vulnerable middle relievers into action.  Lefty Robbie Ray is in great form for the Diamondbacks with a 3-0 mark and 1.98 ERA in his past five starts. His ERA is 1.10 during his last three starts. Arizona is 5-2 versus the Giants in Ray's past seven starts against San Francisco.  The Giants are 5-9 versus lefty starters this season. Word is the Giants will be resting Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. Brandon Crawford may also sit out.  San Francisco has won just 33 percent of its past 43 road games. |
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05-18-19 | Giants -106 v. Diamondbacks | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks are pitching Zack today. The wrong Zach. It's Zack Godley getting the start not Zack Greinke. That puts me in action with this matchup because Madison Bumgarner goes for San Francisco with a price that is right to back the superior pitcher.  The Giants are 9-2 the past 11 times Bumgarner has faced Arizona at Chase Field. The Giants lost a rough 7-0 game to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Bruce Bochy was tossed during the game. So the Giants won't be mailing this one in. They are 6-2 the past eight times following a loss.  Bumgarner is in solid form with a 3.50 ERA and a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Bumgarner has a lifetime 2.43 ERA against the Diamondbacks spanning 33 outings, including 32 starts. He has a 2.81 career ERA at Chase Field.  Injuries have forced Godley into Arizona's starting rotation - at least for this game. He is struggling with a 7.65 ERA in 10 games, including seven starts. Arizona is 1-6 in Godley's last seven home starts. Godley has a 6.68 career ERA versus the Giants in eight appearances, including six starts. |
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05-17-19 | Blue Jays +100 v. White Sox | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm not a fan of Ivan Nova especially when he's favored against a better pitcher. That's the case in today's Blue Jays-White Sox game in a starting pitching matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus Nova.  Nova is in better current form than Sanchez, but that's not enough to convince me. Sanchez has a 3.75 ERA. The righthander was very good three years ago when he last was fully healthy. Sanchez has been durable this season. The White Sox are 5-13 in their last 18 home games when facing a righty starter.  Nova has a 6.29 ERA. That hideous ERA is doubled at Guaranteed Rate Field - 13.50. Nova is 6-7 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 19 career appearances against the Blue Jays, including 17 starts. His lifetime ERA at Guaranteed Rate Field is 6.62.  So if you think this is a fade on Nova you are 100 percent correct.Â
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05-16-19 | Rangers v. Royals OVER 10 | 16-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Lance Lynn versus Homer Bailey is a great pitching matchup - if this were 2012. Those two were good back then when they were in the National League and before they had arm problems. Now they are journeymen in the American League and far from locks to remain in the starting rotation. Lynn has a 5.48 ERA. He's coming off a season-high 118-pitch count against the Astros this past Friday where he surrendered three homers. Lynn has a 5.13 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals. Bailey has a 4.83 ERA. That's actually his lowest ERA in five years. He's facing a Texas squad that leads the majors in runs scored and has scored 16 runs in its last three games. The Over is 13-5-1 in Texas' last 19 games. Both team's bullpens rank among the worst. The weather forecast is a plus for the Over, too, with wind blowing to center at 12-15 mph.Â
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05-15-19 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Get away day game matchup for these two teams, which is a plus for the Under. This actually is a morning game for the Angels based on their time zone.  Some regulars usually are rested in these type of situations. The Twins could be without two of their better power hitters. Mitch Garver suffered a high ankle sprain on Tuesday so he won't be in action. Nelson Cruz has missed the last two games due to a sore left wrist.  Jake Odorizzi has been the hottest pitcher during his last three starts, giving up no earned runs during this span of 20 innings. The Angels are averaging three runs per game during their last three games.  Angels starter Trevor Cahill looked good in his last start, an 8-3 victory against the Orioles. Cahill yielded two runs in six innings giving up four hits and no walks with five strikeouts.  Both pitchers catch a break with Eric Cooper slated to be behind the plate The Under has cashed 60 percent of the time in Cooper's 86 games as home plate umpire since 2016.  The Under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the two teams have met. |
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05-14-19 | Blue Jays v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
The Blue Jays and Giants are two of the weakest offensive teams in the majors. But this is too low of a total in a pitching matchup of Trent Thornton, who has a 5.06 ERA, against Nick Vincent, who is a long reliever and has made just one career start in the big leagues.  The Giants squared off against Thornton on April and won, 7-6, scoring four runs on six hits in five innings versus Thornton.  The offenses could get a slight boost, too, with the wind blowing out to left at nine mph.Â
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05-13-19 | A's v. Mariners -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
Kudos to Mike Fiers on throwing a no-hitter against the Reds in his last start at home this past Tuesday. Fiers also threw a staggering 131 pitches.  Fiers is a 33-year-old journeyman with a career losing record and a 5.48 ERA on the season. Prior to his last start, Fiers had a 6.81 ERA.  I'm going to fade Fiers in an obvious letdown spot and with the A's taking to the road for the first time in a week. The A's can be dangerous at Oakland Coliseum. However, they are much worse on the road. Oakland is 5-13 away from home this season. The A's have lost nine of their last 10 road games.  Fiers pitched against the Mariners opening day in Japan. The Mariners won, 9-7, knocking out Fiers after three innings by scoring five runs.  Seattle is starting Yusei Kikuchi, who I consider to be the Mariners' best pitcher.  The Mariners haven't been playing well. They just concluded a 2-8 road trip. But they are returning home now where they should be more relaxed.Â
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05-12-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
A pitching matchup of Steven Brault versus Dakota Hudson should yield at least four runs per side ensuring in an Over the total winner.  Brault is making his second start of the year. He's only in the Pirates' starting rotation due to injuries to Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon. The lefty has giving up 10 runs in 12 2/3 innings resulting in a 7.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.  The Over is 12-3-1 the past 16 times the Cardinals have faced a lefty starter at home.  Hudson is on the verge of losing his spot in the Cardinals' rotation with a 4.63 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. The Pirates' offense is much better with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco both back healthy. |
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05-11-19 | Phillies -132 v. Royals | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
It hasn't been Aaron Nola nor Jake Arrieta. No, the Phillies' best starting pitchers have been Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff. Eflin is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.90 ratio during his last three starts. Eflin gets the start here against Brad Keller. It's a testament on how bad the Royals are that Keller is their best picher and Kansas City is 2-5 in his last seven starts. Keller is not in good form either going 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 ratio in his past three starts. The Phillies rank seventh in runs scored. The Royals are 16th in runs. Philadelphia has the superior bullpen. The Royals upset the Phillies in Game 1 of this series Friday. I want the Phillies going for me in this revenge spot. |
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05-11-19 | Marlins +272 v. Mets | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
Jacob deGrom looks back in dominant form. Even if that is true, I'll throw a peanut out there on the Marlins at this tremendous plus price. The Mets are a below .500 team with a below average offense. They also don't usually win for deGrom at home losing 18 of his past 24 outings at Citi Field.  Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara is striving for consistency. He is capable of throwing a gem, though.  The Marlins have enjoyed surprising good success against deGrom winning seven of the last nine times deGrom has started against them.Â
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05-10-19 | Phillies -146 v. Royals | 1-5 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
Sometimes there is value backing a favorite. That's the case here. The Phillies are actually helped playing this opponent on the road because they have better DH options. Philadelphia came on last season and the Phillies are No. 1 in the NL East this season. Kansas City has the second-worst record in baseball. The Royals can't match the Phillies' power and are pitching Homer Bailey against Jake Arrieta. Bailey is as terrible as ever with a 5.25 ERA. The last time he had an ERA of less than 6.00 was 2014. Once in a while he throws a gem. Otherwise it remains a mystery how he can still be in a big league starting rotation. Bailey is backed by a bottom-five bullpen. The Phillies have scored five or more runs in seven of its last 10 games. Arrieta is having another solid season. The Phillies have allowed only eight runs in their last four games.Â
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05-10-19 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
Domingo German and Tyler Glasnow are two huge success stories so far this season. Both have six victories. German has a 2.35 ERA while Glasnow could legitimately lay claim to being the best pitcher in the American League to this point with a 1.47 ERA. He hasn't given up more than two runs during any of his seven starts.  So the oddsmaker certainly is justified setting such a low total for an American League game.  The Yankees are a strong road Over team. The Rays have gone above the total in eight of their last 11 home games. I can see one of these two pitchers not holding up his considerable end, which would collapse an Under play due to the total being set so low.  New York has gone Over in 20 of its last 27 road contests. The Yankees have a top-10 offense. They have produced four or more runs in 19 of their last 26 games. The Rays just scored 20 runs during their three-game home series against the Diamondbacks. They are expected to get back Austin Meadows, who is hitting .351 with six homers and 19 RBI's in 20 games. Meadows has missed nearly three weeks due to a thumb injury.  German has a shaky history versus the Rays having posted a 7.36 ERA against them in three appearances last season, two of which came as a starter.
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05-09-19 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | 2-4 | Loss | -132 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
The Rangers have hung in so far this season posting a 17-17 record. They have a solid starting pitching edge in this matchup with Mike Minor going against Wade Miley. Minor has a 2.40 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are batting .190 against him. Minor has been hot since the middle of last season posting a 2.97 ERA following the All-Star Game holding foes to a .194 batting average.  Minor faced the Astros early last month and dominated them winning, 4-0, at home. Minor allowed just five hits in seven innings.  Miley is a journeyman type who has pitched decent this season, but is not the caliber of Minor. Miley has a bad history against the Rangers with a 2-5 career-mark and 5.86 ERA in nine starts.Â
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05-08-19 | Reds v. A's -119 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
The Reds experienced real cultural shock going from homer friendly Great American Ball Park to the spacious confines and weird pitcher-friendly configuration of Oakland Coliseum as they were no-hit in Game 1 of this series by Mike Fiers on Tuesday. Fiers, mind you, is not exactly Nolan Ryan.  I don't see the Reds doing much against Brett Anderson either in the middle game of their three game series versus the A's, which marks Cincinnati's first visit to Oakland in six years.  Anderson is a fragile lefty who is tough on bad teams when pitching in Oakland especially at night. The A's are 9-1 the past 10 times Anderson has started at home versus sub .500 teams. Anderson is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in night games this season.  Oakland has won four consecutive home games. The Reds are 17-47 during their last 64 away contests. That's a winning percentage of just 27 percent.  Cincinnati is starting Sonny Gray. The A's know Gray well. Gray pitched for Oakland for five seasons starting in 2013. Gray hasn't been good since 2015 and is not in good form entering this matchup with a 5.28 ERA in his last three starts.  Matt Olson is back from the injured list for Oakland. He slammed 29 homers and drove in 84 RBI's last year for the A's. There's a good chance Kris Davis is able to play, too, for Oakland. He has been out since Sunday and was close to playing last night, but was scratched at the last minute. Davis, Olson and Matt Chapman are the A's top power hitters.
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05-07-19 | Rangers v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
It might surprise you to know that Texas has scored the most runs per game in the Majors this season. If you discount a recent 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays, the Rangers are averaging 9.3 runs in their last six games.  The Over is 8-2-1 in the Rangers' past 11 games.  It's not hard to envision the Rangers and Pirates producting at least four runs apiece in a pitching matchup of Steven Brault versus Adrian Sampson. The two teams played two games against one another last week and the scores were 6-4 and 7-5.  The Pirates got a look at Sampson for 5 2/3 innings last week. So they'll have a book on him. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Pittsburgh offense is much more respectable with Starling Marte back in the lineup. If you take away a 14-1 loss to the A's, the Pirates are averaging six runs during their last five games.  The Rangers should be able to tee off on Brault, who carries an 8.31 ERA and is only drawing a start because Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer are each hurt.  The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out to right. That's good news for left-handed power hitter Joey Gallo, who is tied for the American League in homers with 11.Â
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05-06-19 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Max Scherzer is the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball. He faces a Brewers lineup that will be missing perhaps their second-best hitter, Lorenzo Cain, who was hurt on Sunday and won't be in the starting lineup. Jhoulys Chacin is the Brewers' top starter. He's a huge underrated Under pitcher with the low side cashing in 16 of his last 21 starts. The Brewers will have a rested Josh Hader to pitch possibly two innings out of the bullepn.  The Nationals' offense is way down due to multiple injuries. Out are Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, Trea Turner and Matt Adams. Only once in their last six games have the Nationals scored more than three runs.  The Under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the teams have met in Milwaukee. Â
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