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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-30-19 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 55 | 44-41 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 17 m | Show | |
Indiana has an underrated defense. The Hooisers can't stop high-powered offenses, but they are tough versus weak attacks holding Eastern Illinois, Connecticut, Rutgers and Northwestern to a combined six points!  Purdue's offense has been ruined because of multiple QB injuries and an injury to Rondale Moore, who I ranked as the top wide receiver in the country. The Boilermakers are terrible on the ground ranking 128th, averaging fewer than 75 rushing yards per game.  The Boilermakers have been respectable on defense versus middle-to-lower Big Ten foes. Discounting last week's game against Wisconsin, Purdue had given up an average of 22.6 points in its last five Big Ten games. There are two other key factors that favor an Under. The weather forecast is calling for a 90 percent chance of rain with wind in the 13-15 mph range. That's especially bothersome to Indiana, which is a passing team. Note the teams are playing on a grass field, too, which is a plus for the Under. Also this is a rivalry matchup so defensive intensity should be up.Â
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11-29-19 | Iowa v. Nebraska UNDER 45 | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
The marketplace has knocked this total down a little, but not enough. There is still value going Under given the teams and conditions. Iowa surrenders the fifth-fewest points in the nation at 12.2 per game. The Hawkeyes have held eight of their 11 opponents to season-low point totals. The Hawkeyes, though, lack a dynamic offense. They rank 102nd in scoring at 23.5 points. So it's not a shock the Under is 8-1-1 in Iowa's past 10 games.  Nebraska doesn't make many big plays either. The Cornhuskers are 78th in scoring at 28.4 points.  This is a rivalry matchup. The teams play for the Heros Trophy so intensity should be up.  Another key factor for the Under is weather. The forecast is for rain and 15 mph wind.Â
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11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 52 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
Weather and a bad Northern Illinois offense quarterbacked by an ineffective backup are the major reasons for playing Under in this Mid-American Conference matchup. Rain and 14-20 mph winds are in the forecast. Northern Illinois starting QB Ross Bowers is out due to a concussion. Marcus Childers is his replacement. He's not very good. Childers threw for fewer than 100 yards last week and was picked off three times. The Huskies will be running the ball a lot here. They are averaging only 19.3 points in their last three games. Western Michigan has a lot of pressure. A victory puts the Broncos into the MAC title game as the West Division winner. The Broncos have a good runner, LeVante Bellamy. So look for the Broncos to keep things conservative on the road running Bellamy a lot. There is no need for them to open up their attack and take unnecessary chances, which is good for the Under.Â
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11-23-19 | Washington v. Colorado +14.5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
This high line might be justified from a Washington point of view if this were last season and if the Huskies cared about this game. But it's not. Washington is down from the past couple of seasons. The Huskies have the third-best defense in the Pac-12. Certainly that's good by ordinary standards, but not by Washington standards. The Huskies had led the Pac-12 in the key defensive categories during the previous four seasons.  Colorado has receiving weapons for experienced QB Steven Montez with Laviska Shenault, Tony Brown and K.D. Nixon. Shenault is one of the top wideouts in the nation. The Huskies already have a bowl spot secured with their 6-4 record. They have a look-ahead spot with their traditional season-ending game against Washington State next week. The Buffaloes are in must-win mode if they want to stay alive for a bowl berth. They have played better at home going 3-2 ATS posting straight-up victories against Nebraska and Stanford. Colorado lost by four points to USC as 10 1/2-point home 'dogs.
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11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
It may take more than a week for Baylor to get over its choke job against Oklahoma. The Sooners rallied from 25 points down to beat the Bears last week ending Baylor's hopes of an unbeaten season. Baylor doesn't even need to win this game to earn a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. All the Bears have to do to accomplish that is defeat Kansas in their regular season finale.  Texas has had a disappointing season. But the Longhorns still have an outside chance of a conference title plus a strong bowl game if they win their final two regular season games.  The Longhorns are at their most dangerous in an underdog role thanks to Tom Herman. He's the premier underdog coach in CFB. Herman coached Houston for two years before going to Texas. The Cougars were 5-0 ATS as 'dogs under Herman. The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS when getting points in three years under Herman. So Herman's combined head coaching record against the spread as an underdog is 15-4 (79 percent)!  I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But I like Texas QB Sam Ehlinger even more.  Texas has defeated Baylor the past four times the teams have met, including 23-17 last season and 38-7 in Waco two years ago.Â
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | 39-14 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 58 m | Show | |
Michigan's biggest game of its season always is Ohio State. It's one of the top rivalries in the nation and the best one in the Big Ten. The Wolverines host the Buckeyes next week. That puts them in a dangerous look-ahead spot here against Indiana. It's also a Big Ten Conference sandwich spot for the Wolverines as they just whipped their hated in-state rival, Michigan State, at home this past Saturday. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS the last five years in their previous game before Ohio State, including failing to cover the last three seasons in this spot.  Indiana is much improved. The Hoosiers reached the Top 25 for the first time since 1994 before suffering a 34-27 road loss to Penn State last week. Indiana covered that game and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. Michigan hasn't beaten Indiana on the road by more than seven points in its last three visits. The Hoosiers are averaging 33.3 points. They have the offense to stay within single digits of the Wolverines at home again especially considering Michigan's negative scheduling dynamics.Â
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11-23-19 | North Texas v. Rice OVER 55 | 14-20 | Loss | -120 | 49 h 56 m | Show | |
Now that Mason Fine has been cleared to play, I'm going to get involved on the Over in this matchup.  Fine is one of the top QB's in the country. The senior has passed for 2,659 yards, completed 62.6 percent of his throws and has a 27-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 10 games. Jaelon Darden and Michael Lawrence are talented wide receivers. Rice ranks 99th in pass defense. Rice produced 31 points in its last game playing Middle Tennessee State. The Owls have found their right QB in Tom Stewart, who threw for 222 yards and three TD's in that victory. North Texas has a weak defense. The Mean Green rank 101st in run defense. They've yielded more than 40 points four times and are giving up an average of 34.4 points a game, which ranks 115th.
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11-23-19 | BYU v. UMass +40.5 | 56-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
BYU just isn't good enough to lay this kind of number especially on the road with an early East Coast start time and being in a letdown spot following four consecutive victories. UMass is one of the worst teams in college football. But the Minutemen are capable of putting up points. They average 28.2 points at home. The Minutemen haven't played a home game in three weeks. This is their final game of the season so an effort should be forthcoming. |
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11-21-19 | NC State v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47 | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
There are some decent teams in the ACC. These are not two of them. North Carolina State and Georgia Tech are a combined 6-14. The season can't end quick enough for the Wolfpack and Yellow Jackets.  North Carolina State ranks 104th in scoring averaging fewer than 23 points a game. The Wolfpack have produced fewer than 17 points in four of their last six games. They only have one rushing touchdown in their last six games. Georgia Tech's strength is its pass defense. The Yellow Jackets rank 29th permitting fewer than 200 passing yards a game. Georgia Tech scores even less than NC State averaging 16.5 points per game. The Yellow Jackets rank among the bottom-11 teams in the nation in scoring and yards gained. They are last in red zone offense.  North Carolina State has a good defensive line. The Wolfpack rate 32nd in stopping the run. Georgia Tech lacks any big-play element and has failed to rush for more 100 yards in two of its last three games.Â
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11-20-19 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 49 m | Show |
ESPN2 must not care about its scheduling. How else to explain the network showing Akron football. What is ESPN2 going to program next, reruns of "My Mother the Car," (yes there really was a My Mother The Car show and it may have been the worst TV sitcom ever).  Akron has the worst offense in college football averaging 10.6 points a game. The Zips have scored 23 points in their last five games. They rank second-to-last in yards per game, 94th in passing and last in rushing. Other than that, they have a fairly strong attack. The Zips usually save their most boring for the road going Under in 16 of their last 23 away matchups. Miami of Ohio is a respectable 58th in total defense. The Redhawks are bad offensively, too, ranking 93rd in scoring at 24.8 points and 121st in yards gained.Â
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11-16-19 | Air Force v. Colorado State OVER 63.5 | 38-21 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
If you can't stop the run you can not stop Air Force. The Falcons are the No. 2 rushing team in the country averaging 324.1 yards a game. Colorado State ranks 111th in run defense allowing an average of 204.7 yards. The Falcons have averaged nearly 35 points a game during the last five meetings between the two teams. The Over has cashed each of the last seven times the teams have met in Colorado Springs. The Over is 18-8 in Air Force's last 26 road contests.  Colorado State's offense has picked up since Nebraska transfer Patrick O'Brien replaced injured Colin Hill at quarterback. The Rams have scored 37, 41 and 35 points during their last three games. O'Brien has averaged 302.5 passing yards per game since taking over as the starter. Warren Jackson has emerged as the premier wide receiver in the Mountain West Conference leading the league with 121.7 receiving yards per game.
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11-16-19 | LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5 | Top | 58-37 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
Huge letdown spot here for LSU after the Tigers' great SEC showdown victory over Alabama last week. That effort was both physically and emotionally draining for the Tigers.  If you discount its loss to Alabama, Mississippi has lost five games by an average of 6.6 points. The Rebels played both Texas A&M and Auburn close.  Mississippi ranks No. 1 in the SEC and 13th nationally in rushing. Rebels freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee is a dual threat. He leads the team in rushing.  LSU QB Joe Burrow can't produce points if his offense is on the bench watching Mississippi control clock with its ground attack.Â
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11-16-19 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt UNDER 44 | 38-14 | Loss | -116 | 100 h 32 m | Show | |
These are two bad offensive teams with feeble passing games. Kentucky averages just 20.3 points, which ranks 114th in the nation. Converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. is the Wildcats' QB. He can't throw.  Vanderbilt averages 15.1 points a game, which is 126th in the country. The Commodores have gone through four QB's, none of whom have been effective. The scary thing about Vandy is its offense is regressing. The Commodores are averaging less than nine points during their last five games.
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11-16-19 | Navy v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 20-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
I'm going to fade the line movement. The marketplace is overthinking this matchup by their heavy play on Navy.  Notre Dame has won 16 in a row at home. The Irish have played a tougher schedule than Navy and beat them, 44-22, last season as 21 1/2-point favorites at a neutral site. This is the last ranked regular season opponent Notre Dame faces. So the Irish won't lack motivation.  Navy actually has a bigger game on deck with a first-place showdown in the American Athletic Conference West Division playing at home against SMU.Â
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11-16-19 | Florida v. Missouri UNDER 51 | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
QB Kelly Bryant isn't healthy and Missouri's offense is shot. Missouri is averaging seven points during its last three games. Florida has a strong defense whose season-long statistics have been skewed by a 42-28 loss to LSU.  Missouri has a tough defense ranking ninth in fewest yards allowed per game. The Tigers surrender the 19th-fewest points per game and are ranked fourth in the nation in pass defense. The Gators have trouble hanging on to the ball committing 21 turnovers.Â
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11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 49.5 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
If the Mid-American Conference wants to show off their brand of football on a Tuesday - of all nights - they sure picked a wrong team with Akron.  The Zips have a cool nickname, but there is nothing exciting about their offense. They are last in the nation in scoring averaging 10.2 points a game. The Zips haven't scored a TD during their last four games putting up the grand total of nine points during this span. Akron ranks 94th in passing and last in rushing. (Update: This total has gone done considerably since I released the play on Monday. I would still recommend the Under, but not for a Max Unit play.) |
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11-09-19 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -120 | 17-13 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm not buying into Tennessee being a much improved team.  Kentucky has covered its last five home games. The Wildcats have gotten their weak QB play straighten out with the decision to make junior wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. their QB. Bowden has been very effective running the ball. He's a tremendous athlete who gives the Wildcats a different dimension from their previous QB's, Terry Wilson and Sawyer Smith. Alabama and LSU draw the SEC headlines. Quietly, though, Kentucky has covered eight of its last 10. This is just the Volunteers' third road game. They lost their first two by 33 points to Florida and by 22 points to Alabama.Â
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11-09-19 | Georgia State -135 v. UL-Monroe | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -135 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
Neither team plays good defense. But Georgia State has the better offense and is hot winning four in a row. Monroe has lost two in a row surrendering a staggering 100 points in those two defeats. Georgia State has good balance on offense averaging more than 200 yards both passing and rushing. Monroe gives up more than 200 yards both on the ground and through the air. The Panthers average 36.6 points a game, which ranks 21st in the country. Led by running back Tra Barnett and dual-threat QB Dan Ellington, the Panthers ranked 10th in rushing. Monroe permits more than 235 yards on the ground. Monroe averages nearly nine points fewer per game than Georgia State. The Warhawks yield 38.6 points a game. They do not have a good history at home either going 7-20-1 ATS during their past 28 home games. Georgia State upset Tennessee, winning 38-30 as 24 1/2-point road 'dogs. That victory seems impressive now considering that Tennessee has defeated Mississippi State, South Caroina and UAB during its past four games. |
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11-09-19 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -9 | 22-24 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
Wisconsin wasn't as good as advertised when it steamrolled its first six opponents by an average of 38 points. But the Badgers aren't as bad as they looked in a 38-7 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago and in letting themselves get upset by Illinois before that game in an obvious look-ahead spot to Ohio State. The Badgers had a much needed bye last week. I see a regrouped Badgers squad taking care of Iowa at home. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS following a bye. Both teams are tough defensively. The difference is Wisconsin has a stud RB in Jonathan Taylor, who I consider the best RB in the country.  Iowa ranks 94th in scoring offense averaging only 24.4 points a game. The Hawkeyes could be minus star offensive lineman Alaric Jackson, too.  Wisconsin has won the last three in the series.Â
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11-09-19 | Stanford -3 v. Colorado | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 22 m | Show | |
Stanford is a much better team now that QB K.J. Costello is back from a thumb injury. The Cardinal have a balanced attack with Costello, who has the skill set to find his second and third targets. Stanford also is in the hunt to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season. The Cardinal can't afford to slip here. I don't they will given Colorado's woes.  The Buffaloes entered the season with a great deal of optimism under first-year coach Mel Tucker. That's gone now. The Buffaloes have underachieved offensively scoring 14 or fewer points in three of their last four games and their defense has falled apart due to attriution and injuries. Colorado ranks second-to-last in the Pac-12 in scoring defense allowing 34.4 points.Â
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11-09-19 | East Carolina v. SMU -21 | 51-59 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Kill spot for SMU here off a six-point road loss to Memphis. This is the Mustangs' homecoming game and they need a victory to stay in the AAC hunt.  East Carolina is a patsy. The Pirates' lone victories were against Gardner-Webb, Old Dominion and William & Mary. The Pirates played extremely hard against Cincinnati last week nearly pulling off an upset before losing, 46-43, as 25-point home 'dogs. That loss eliminated East Carolina from any hope of earning a bowl bid.  The Pirates are likely to be deflated and don't have the offense, averaging fewer than 24 points a game, to keep pace with the Mustangs.
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11-03-19 | Fresno State v. Hawaii UNDER 69.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -102 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford is a quarterback guru. That's something well known about Tedford. What isn't so well known is that Tedford's teams have a strong Under tendency especially on the road where the low side has covered 12 of the last 16 times. Neither defense here has been very good. Hawaii has an explosive passing attack. That is why the total is so high. But in the last four years the most points scored in this matchup was 56 in 2015. There were 52 points scored last year and just 27 in 2016.  This isn't a vintage Fresno State offense and Jorge Reyna isn't one of Tedford's great QB's. Reyna has a 3-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. The Bulldogs have used five different offensive line combination and 11 players have made their first start for the offense. Lack of focus and execution has hurt Fresno State. Hawaii lost a bit of its receiving depth when Melquise Stovall was dismissed from the team last week. He was third on the team in TD catches. Fresno State has done a good job of limiting big plays tied with Boise State for fewest pass plays of 20 or more yards allowed.  So I could see a fifth straight game of fewer than 60 points being scored.Â
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11-02-19 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina OVER 47 | 46-43 | Win | 100 | 44 h 27 m | Show | |
Cincinnati's defense gets a lot of credit. But the Bearcats' offense has been producing. Cincinnati is averaging 35.2 points in its last five games.  Desmond Ridder and Co. should have a field day against an East Carolina defense that ranks 88th in yards allowed and 99th in run defense.  This isn't a big total to go Over and the Pirates could contribute to it. They have a talented quarterback in Holton Ahlers.Â
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11-02-19 | UAB +12.5 v. Tennessee | 7-30 | Loss | -109 | 43 h 24 m | Show | |
Look I get that Alabama Birmingham's 6-1 record is deceiving being littered by beating patsies. But I don't think Tennessee is that good with its three-headed QB monster running an offense that ranks 103rd in yards.  The Blazers defense is impressive regardless ranking No. 8 in run defense and 11th in points allowed at just 15.7 per game. None of the Blazers' opponents have scored more than 20 points on them. UAB has a balanced attack. QB Tyler Johston III has thrown for 260 or more yards in five of the Blazers' last six games.  Tennessee is in a letdown spot after its big win against South Carolina last week. The Volunteers don't have a good track record at home failing to cover in 15 of their last 21 home games.  UAB has been a strong money-maker going 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 games.Â
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11-02-19 | Army v. Air Force UNDER 46 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
The last five in this series have all gone Under, including Army's 17-14 win last year. It's no surprise considering these are both triple option teams, play at a slow pace and this is a heated rivalry.  Not many teams run an option. But Army and Air Force each do so its defenses are familiar with that kind of unique attack.  Army is averaging just 19.3 points in its last three games.  Note the teams will be playing on a grass field, which is a plus for the Under.Â
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11-02-19 | Kansas State v. Kansas +6.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 55 m | Show |
Kansas is one of the most improved teams in the nation under Les Miles. The Jayhawks have posted upsets of Boston College and Texas Tech while nearly knocking off Texas losing at the gun.  The Jayhawks' offense has picked up under offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon with Carter Stanley one of the more underrated QB's in the country.  Kansas is ready to spring another upset, this time against arch-rival Kansas State. The Wildcats have dominated this series winning the last 10 times. The Jayhawks hung tough against the Wildcats last season on the road, losing 21-17. Now the Jayhawks are home, vastly improved, riding some confidence and catch the Wildcats in a letdown spot. Kansas State just pulled off a monster upset of Oklahoma last Saturday as a 23 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the Wildcats' first road game in four weeks and only their third road game of the season.Â
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10-31-19 | West Virginia v. Baylor -17.5 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
This matchup sets up well for Baylor coming off a bye. Baylor is very solid on both sides of the ball and is running hot with seven straight wins.  West Virginia is at low ebb losing three in a row, being outscored in those games, 132-59, by Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Those are all good Big 12 teams. But so is unbeaten 11th-ranked Baylor.  The Bears have the third-best scoring offense in the Big 12. The Bears have depth at running back, a receiving threat in Denzel Mims and dual threat quarterback Charlie Brewer knows how to take care of the ball. If you discount the Texas Tech game, Brewer hasn't thrown an interception all season.  Brewer will be operating against a depleted West Virginia defense that gives up the most points in the Big 12 and just lost linebacker Josh Chandler to a knee injury.Â
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10-26-19 | Utah State v. Air Force OVER 58.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 54 m | Show |
Look for a shootout between these two teams. Air Force is averaging 41.2 points in its last four games. The Falcons rank No. 2 in the nation in rushing. They have averaged 35 points the past two seasons against Utah State. Utah State has one of the best QB's in the country, Jordan Love. The Aggies play at an extremely fast tempo, which is a huge plus for the Over. The Falcons rank 74th in pass defense. Utah State has averaged 40 points versus Air Force during the past two years. Â
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10-26-19 | Arizona State v. UCLA +3.5 | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show | |
UCLA is getting better. The Bruins are 2-1-1 ATS in their last four games, including SU road victories against Washington State and Stanford. The Bruins have improved their defense, allowing 366 yards per game during their last three games, and getting better QB play. Star running back Joshua Kelley is healthy again, too. Arizona State has been getting worse. The Sun Devils are coming off a lackluster 21-3 loss to Utah.  UCLA has played a tougher schedule than Arizona State. The Sun Devils' early season win against Michigan State doesn't look so impressive now given the Spartans' woes.  This has been an extremely tight series. The Sun Devils nipped UCLA, 31-28, last year. The Bruins are better than they were last season. I see them getting revenge at home.
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10-26-19 | Texas Tech -4.5 v. Kansas | 34-37 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
Kansas is much improved under Les Miles. But the Jayhawks still have a long rebuild and this spot sets up great for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are coming off a tough 34-24 home loss to Iowa State. They can't afford a loss to Kansas in their quest to make a bowl game. The Red Raiders have plenty of firepower and should give the Jayhawks their best effort. Kansas, on the other hand, is in a letdown spot after nearly upsetting Texas in one of its best performances of the past few years. The Jayhawks had rallied several times to lead, but lost on a field goal at the gun, 50-48. Kansas played its guts out and it's going to be difficult for the Jayhaws to match that performance physically and emotionally.  Texas Tech has dominated this series winning the past nine times while going 7-2 ATS. The Red Raiders' average win in this span has been by 24 points. Texas Tech has defeated Kansas by an average of 38 points during the last three years.  The gap has narrowed. But not enough and the situation lays out well for the Red Raiders.
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10-26-19 | Auburn +11 v. LSU | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show | |
LSU hasn't faced a defense nearly this good all season. Auburn gives up just 17.1 points per game. That ranks 16th in the nation. Auburn also is 11th in run defense with its NFL-caliber defensive line.  Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix is getting better. He's surrounded by strong pieces.  LSU plays Alabama in its next game. So the Tigers have to guard against getting ahead of themselves. Not so with Auburn, which needs this game to keep in contention to win the Western Division portion of the SEC.  Auburn has covered seven of its last eight games. This should be a highly competitive game just like the past three, which were decided by 1, 4 and 5 points.Â
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10-26-19 | Illinois v. Purdue -9.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -106 | 41 h 45 m | Show |
Congrats to Illinois on pulling off the season's biggest upset with its 24-23 home victory against sixth-ranked Wisconsin last Saturday. The Illini were 28 1/2-point underdogs. It was the first time Illinois had defeated a ranked team in eight years.  I'm not a fan of Illinois coach Lovie Smith, though, and I don't see the Illini being ready to go on the road to take on a frustrated Purdue team that has dominated them recently. This is the mother of all letdown spots for Illinois.  Purdue has lost its quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, and star wide receiver Rondale Moore to injuries. However, backup QB Jack Plummer is showing steady improvement, the Boilermakers still have good receiving depth - including an excellent pass-catching tight end in Brycen Hopkins - and an edge in coaching with Jeff Brohm.  Illinois could be missing its leading pass receiver, Ricky Smalling, and defensive end Oluwole Betiku, who ranks among the nation leaders in sacks. Both were injured against Wisconsin.  The Boilermakers have beaten the Illini each of the last three years, including 46-7 on the road last season and 29-10 two years ago.Â
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
These are heady times for SMU. The Mustangs are 7-0 for the first time in 37 years and ranked 16th in the AP's Top 25 poll. That's the highest the Mustangs have been rated since 1985.  The combination of that and the perception that Houston is a dead team after losing outright as 21-point road favorites to lowly Connecticut last week push this line to the two-touchdown mark. I'm stepping in at this point.   Houston still has bowl aspirations. The Cougars also should get back QB Clayton Tune. He's a big upgrade on third-stringer Logan Holgorsen, who was behind center against Connecticut. Tune didn't play in that huge upset because of a hamstring injury. He is practicing this week and expected to play.   The Cougars rank 22nd in rushing. They have the capability to play ball control preventing SMU's high octane offense from taking the field.  This also is a big in-state rivalry and has recruting ramifications. The Cougars have revenge motivation, too. They were ranked 17th in the country when SMU beat them last season as 14-point home 'dogs.Â
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10-19-19 | Kansas +21.5 v. Texas | Top | 48-50 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
This line might make sense - it it were last year. Les Miles has made Kansas far more respectable.  But even before Miles came on board the Jayhawks have given Texas trouble. The Longhorns defeated the Jayhawks, 24-17, last year failing to cover as 15 1/2-point road favorites. Texas beat Kansas by 15 points at home two seasons ago failing to cover as 32-point favorites and three years ago the Jayhawks stunned the Longhorns, 24-21, as 23 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kansas had a bye last week. The Jayhawks draw the Longhorns after Texas just had its annual Red River Shootout against arch-rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns are at TCU next week. So the spot clearly favors Kansas.  Sam Ehlinger is one of the best QB's in the country. But I see the Jayhawks having the weapons to hang with Texas especially since the Longhorns have multiple defensive injuries. The Longhorns are giving up 453.3 yards per game, which ranks 111th. They have permitted an average of 31.6 points in their three Big 12 games.  Kansas senior QB Carter Stanley ranks among the top 10 QB's statistically in Kansas history. He should be helped by a switch in offensive coordinators that has a more aggressive approach. Stanley has a pair of capable WR's in Andrew Parchment and Stephon Robinson Jr. plus one of the best running backs in the conference, Pooka Williams. |
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10-19-19 | Central Michigan -10.5 v. Bowling Green | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
Central Michigan is playing its best ball with consecutive blowout victories against Eastern Michigan and New Mexico State.  New Mexico State is a very bad team. So is Bowling Green. Don't look for the Chippewas to overlook Bowling Green, though. Not after the Falcons stunned Toldeo at home last Saturday winning 20-7 as 26 1/2-point 'dogs.  That game was a total exception. Bowling Green is terrible on both sides of the ball. The Falcons had allowed four of their previous six opponents to score 35 or more points. They are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 home games. Bowling Green also is 1-6 ATS following a victory. Bowling Green had not beaten Toldeo, a rivalry matchup, since 2009. The Falcons' defense is weak especially against the run. Central Michigan has a balanced offense averaging 32.3 points. The Chippewas rank 51th in rushing while Bowling Green rates 111th in run defense yielding 208 yards on the ground per game. The Falcons also are 127th in scoring averaging a meager 15.5 points.  Central Michigan has covered four of the last five times versus below .500 opponents.
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10-19-19 | Clemson v. Louisville OVER 61 | 45-10 | Loss | -116 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
Scott Satterfield is doing a miraculous job with Louisville. But he can't hide the Cardinals' pass defense woes. The Cardinals have allowed nearly 1,400 yards with 14 TD's during the last three weeks.  Clemson buried Louisville, 77-16, last season. The score is going to be closer this time around, but the Cardinals won't be able to slow down the Tigers.  The Tigers put up 45 points on Florid State last week. Travis Etienne is one of the best RB's in the country and the Tigers have maybe the best WR's in the nation. Trevor Lawrence is due to put up huge numbers.   Louisville is putting up numbers close to Clemson on offense ranking 16th in yardage and 24th in scoring at 37.3 points a game. The Cardinals have scored 103 points during the past two weeks facing Boston College and Wake Forest. Their ground attack has churned out 200 yards in every game except one. |
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10-19-19 | Florida -4.5 v. South Carolina | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
You can't hold it against South Carolina if the Gamecocks suffer a letdown here against a strong Florida team. South Carolina is coming off a monster upset of then third-ranked Georgia, 20-17, in double overtime last week. The Gators are looking to rebound following a 42-28 loss to third-ranked LSU. Â Florida had won 10 in a row until falling to the Tigers.The Gators still have a shot to reach the SEC title game, but they need to win here. Kyle Trask is playing better at QB and the Gators own the superior defense in this matchup. Florida was leading the nation in sacks until last week.ÂÂ |
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10-19-19 | NC State v. Boston College +3.5 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
Boston College is 3-3, but 4-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog. The Eagles were idle last week. That has given more time to new QB Dennis Grosel, who replaces injured Anthony Brown. Grosel looked good in the Eagles' 41-39 road loss to Louisville two weeks ago when Brown was injured.  NC State loves to blitz. The Eagles, however, have allowed just three sacks.  The Wolfpack also are using a backup QB, Bailey Hockman. I prefer Grosel especially since he's backed by star RB AJ Dillon, who leads the ACC in rushing.  NC State has failed to cover in its last four road games. The Wolfpacks are 1-5-1 ATS in their seven visits to BC. |
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10-18-19 | UNLV v. Fresno State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 27-56 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
UNLV upset Vanderbilt, 34-10, on the road last Saturday. The Rebels accomplished this by playing tough defense and running the ball a season-high 53 times. Now, on a short week with less practice time, the Rebels figure to stay on the ground. Running plays keep the clock moving. Tony Sanchez is fighting to keep his job as UNLV head coach. He knows the Rebels are 7-3 the last 10 times they have run the ball 50 or more times. Prior to putting up 34 points against the Commodores, the Rebels averaged 15.2 points in their past four games. Fresno State ranks 49th in fewest yards allowed per game. The Rebels don't have a very good passing attack. I'm not impressed either with Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna. Bulldogs coach Jeff Tedford has developed a lot of good QB's. Reyna, though, isn't one of them. Fresno State's statistics are padded from having played games against Sacramento State and New Mexico State.Â
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10-17-19 | UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 51 | Top | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
Youthful quarterbacks and underrated defenses help put me on the Under. I'm not overly fond of UCLA's quarterbacks. Sophomore Austin Burton could be in line to make his second start for the Bruins in place of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has a leg injury. The Bruins remain without perhaps their most talented wider receiver with Theo Howard out.  If you discount their games against Washington State and Oregon State, the Bruins are averaging 14.7 points in their four other games.  Stanford's defense has come on. The Cardinal have given up an average of 20.6 points in their last three games taking on Oregon, Oregon State and Washington. The Ducks and Huskies each have top-30 offenses while Oregon State ranks 48th in scoring.  The Cardinal are expected go with sophomore Jack West at quarterback with K.J. Costello sidelined. Stanford also is starting three true freshmen on its offensive line. An inexperienced QB behind three-fifths of an inexperienced O-line usually isn't a good combination. I'm sure the Cardinal will play conservative, which is the style of their coach, David Shaw, and run the ball frequently with Cameron Scarlett. That will keep the clock moving.Â
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10-12-19 | San Jose State v. Nevada -120 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 38 h 47 m | Show |
Just like the stock market it's best to buy low and sell high. This is a case of buying low with Nevada Reno. The Wolf Pack are at low ebb following a humiliating 54-3 home loss to Hawaii in their last game. That was two weeks ago. The Wolf Pack have been idle since.  Nevada is itching for redemption. The Wolf Pack are 7-2 ATS following a bye. San Jose State is a surprising 3-2. The Spartans don't bring many fans to their road games and Nevada is a tough place for visiting teams. Just ask Purdue, which had a healthy starting QB and superstar WR Rondale Moore when it fell to the Wolf Pack in Reno earlier this season.  The Wolf Pack have changed starting QB's. It's time for the Malik Henry era. The heavily recruited prep superstar Henry will be making his first college start for Nevada after originally signing with Florida State.  The Spartans remain vulnerable defensively ranking 107th in total defense. They have one of the worst run defenses in the nation.  Nevada's record and statistics are skewed because of blowout losses to Hawaii and Oregon. The Wolf Pack should fare much better against San Jose State especially at home where they have covered eight of the last nine times when hosting the Spartans.  |
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10-12-19 | BYU -4 v. South Florida | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
If BYU wants to have a realistic bowl shot it can't stumble here. The Cougars have lost consecutive games to Washington and Toledo on the road. There is no shame in losing to those two teams especially drawing the Rockets in Toledo. There would be tremendous shame, though, if the Cougars were to get upset by South Florida.  I don't see that happening, though, even with BYU starting QB Zach Wilson out with a broken thumb. The Cougars had a needed bye last week. Redshirt freshman QB Jaren Hall should be prepared. He's facing a Bulls squad that yields nearly 30 points a game ranking 93rd in scoring defense.  BYU is bigger and has the more mature athletes. The Cougars have proven themselves with victories against Southern Cal and Tennessee. This has become a crucial game for the Cougars so their concentration, level of urgency and motivation should be there.
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10-12-19 | Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 66 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
Bowling Green excels in one thing - going Under the total. The Falcons have gone Under in nine of their last 10 games.  I'm going to ride that trend here especially considering the weather conditions. The forecast is for wind in the 16 mph range with gusts possibly getting up to 28 mph.  Bowling Green ranks 128th in scoring at 14.6 points a game. Toledo isn't likely to be passing much or playing up-temp once it builds a huge lead, which is what the Rockets are projected to do. The Under has cashed five of the last six times these teams have met at Bowling Green. The Under also has cashed in nine of the last 12 overall meetings between the two schools.
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10-11-19 | Virginia +2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 60 m | Show |
Give me Virgina, the superior team that is on extra rest and taking points here.  The Cavaliers have had two weeks to stew about their last game, a disappointing 35-20 loss to 10th-ranked Notre Dame. Virginia has an excellent dual threat QB in Bryce Perkins and a strong defense that ranks second in sacks with 24 and is 10th in total defense.  I like Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall especially with extra prep time. Miami is on short rest having played last Saturday. The Hurricanes exerted a lot of energy in a valiant comeback from a four-touchdown deficit to lose, 42-35, to Virginia Tech. If you discount their game against non Division I opponent Bethune Cookman, the Hurricanes have been outscored on the season.  The Hurricanes will be starting redshirt sophomore QB N'Kosi Perry. It's his first start for Miami this season.  The Cavaliers defeated a better Miami team last season, 16-13, at home. The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS against opponents with a winning record.  Virginia has covered in its last four visits to Miami. Â
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 71 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a huge Sun Belt Conference matchup. Both teams have outstanding offenses, hence the high total.  But series history and the Ragin' Cajuns defense should not be overlooked.  Lafayette is giving up an average of 17.2 points in its last four games. The Under has cashed five of the past six times in the series, including last season when just 49 points were scored.  Both teams like to run, which should eat clock, too.
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10-05-19 | UMass v. Florida International -26 | Top | 0-44 | Win | 100 | 48 h 47 m | Show |
UMass won its first game of the season last week beating Akron at home as a 9 1/2-point underdog, 37-29. The Minutemen are terrible, though, and I want to fade them off that victory. UMass had lost its previous four games by 34 points to Coastal Carolina, by 35 points to Charlotte, by 25 points to Southern Illinois and by 27 points to Rutgers.  Florida International was idle last week. The Golden Panthers have covered the past four times following a bye. They are 3-0 under Butch Davis after a bye.  The Golden Panthers can't slip here if they want to have a realistic shot of a bowl bid. Davis has stressed that to his team. James Morgan looked good for Florida International in a loss to Louisiana Tech going 29-for-41 with 394 yards passing and three touchdowns in its last game. Morgan had been out with an ankle injury. Morgan entered the season as one of the better QB's in Conference USA.  UMass is starting third-stringer Michael Curtis at QB. The Minutemen are in rebuild mode starting seven true freshmen, most of any FBS team. UMass ranks 115th in yards gained and is second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed and points given up.Â
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10-05-19 | Troy v. Missouri OVER 67 | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
Missouri is averaging more than 38 points a game. The Tigers should easily exceed that number after being idle last week and taking on a bad Sun Belt defense in Troy. Missouri QB Kellen Mond is in line for a huge game as the Trojans rank 125th in pass defense. The Over has cashed each of the past five times Missouri has played following a bye week.  Troy, though, can put up its share of points. The Trojans rank 12th in the nation in yards and 16th in scoring at 40.8 points a game.  Both teams play up-tempo and fast, which is excellent for the Over.
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10-05-19 | Air Force v. Navy UNDER 45 | 25-34 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 12 m | Show | |
Lots of running here between these two rare option-attack, ground-oriented teams. That's great for the Under. Air Force is averaging fewer than nine passes per game this season. Navy has thrown just 20 passes in its past two games.  Another big key to a low-scoring game is each team plays stout run defense. Air Force has the 18th-best rush defense, while Navy ranks 14th in stopping the run. The Under has cashed in six of Air Force's last seven nonconference games. This is a huge rivalry matchup so intensity should be way up. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the schools have met, including last season. Â
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10-05-19 | Baylor +2.5 v. Kansas State | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show | |
I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer much more than Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson. Brewer is one of the more underrated QB's in college football. He has yet to throw an interception and has connected on 66 percent of his throws while accounting for 10 touchdowns.  The Bears rank No. 2 in the Big 12 in run defense and scoring defense. They haven't yielded more than 21 points in a game. The Wildcats don't have the weapons Baylor has. The Bears can just concentrate on Kansas State running back James Gilbert. Denzel Mims gives Baylor the most dynamic player on the field.  The Wildcats were exposed by Oklahoma State last week suffering their first loss, 26-3, after winning their first three games. Kansas State surrendered 526 yards in that loss. The Wildcats lack a pass rush and aren't good at stopping the run either.  I have less respect for the Wildcats now that Bill Snyder isn't their head coach anymore.Â
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10-05-19 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 53 | 13-24 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
Marshall can run the ball ranking 37th in the country in rushing. MIddle Tennessee State is weak stopping the run ranking 127th. The Blue Raiders have a bad defense all the way around surrendering 40 or more points in three of their four games.  The Blue Raiders have played a very difficult schedule, however, taking on Michigan, Iowa and Duke. They are better offensively than what they have shown due to the competition. QB Asher O'Hara has completed better than 70 percent of his throws with an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Marshall ranks 111th in pass defense. Â
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10-03-19 | Temple v. East Carolina UNDER 48 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
East Carolina has played five games under new head coach Mike Houston. Each game has gone Under the total. Will this one break the Under streak?  I say no. I thought QB Holton Ahlers would be a lot better for the Pirates. But he hasn't. Ahlers has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and his downfield throws have lacked accuracy.  Temple has surrendered only one touchdown pass all season. The Owls give up just 17.2 points per game. They just defeated Georgia Tech, 24-2, last week.  East Carolina has held its last two foes, William & Mary and Old Dominion, to an average of 14 points. Temple QB Anthony Russo has been picked off four times in the last two games. Russo has thrown at least one interception in all four of Temple's games. He completed just 9-of-22 passes against Georgia Tech.  Note temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s in Greenville with extremely high humidity. So that could take a toll on the players.Â
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09-28-19 | SMU v. South Florida +8 | 48-21 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
South Florida has improved since switching to redshirt freshman QB Jordan McCloud. But a big reason for this handicap is a go-against SMU off its great win against rival TCU and to fade Sonny Dykes, one of my least favorite coaches.  The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS the last eight times facing a below .500 opponent. South Florida was blown out 49-0 by Wisconsin in its opener. That loss doesn't look quite as bad considering the unbeaten Badgers just blew out Michigan. The Bulls then covered a road game at Georgia Tech, losing 14-10, and then buried South Carolina State at home two weeks ago, 55-16. McCloud accounted for five TD's in that victory. The Bulls were idle last week. So the Bulls will be rested and prepared while catching SMU off a big win.  South Florida's defense is highly opportunistic tied for first in the country in forcing turnovers and fumbles recoverd.Â
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09-28-19 | USC v. Washington -10 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 11 m | Show | |
I don't see USC defeating Utah and Washington in consecutive games. Aside from a strong passing attack, the Trojans aren't as good as Washington in every other area. The gap is especially huge on defense and coaching.  Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 the past couple of years and that defense remains eite. The Huskies have a balanced attack. QB Jacob Eason, a transfer from Georgia, is getting better each week in Washington's system.  The Trojans are going with third-string Matt Fink at quarterback because of injuries to JT Daniels and Kedon Slovis. This will be his first road start. The Huskies have a strong pass defense along with 10 sacks and four interceptions. Â
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09-28-19 | Northwestern +24.5 v. Wisconsin | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 54 m | Show | |
Undefeated Wisconsin has outscored its three opponents, 145-14. The Badgers are off a smashing victory against Michigan last Saturday. All of this contributes to a very inflated line for this matchup.  The Wildcats beat the Badgers by 14 points last season. Northwestern has played Wisconsin extremely tough during the last four years, winning twice and losing by 14 and nine points, respectively, in the other two games.  Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is one of the top 'dog coaches in the country. The Wildcats have covered 11 of the past 14 times they were road 'dogs. That strong record would be even more impressive, but the underdog Wildcats suffered a horrendous ATS bad beat in the closing seconds against Stanford in their opener on a safety with 20 seconds left.  The Wildcats are 15-2 in their last 17 Big Ten games. One of those losses occurred to Michigan State by 21 points at home last week. That's another contributing factor explaining why this line is overinflated.  Northwestern is 9-4 ATS following a defeat. They shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed by Michigan State. The Badgers, on the other hand, are fat and happy having steamrolled Michigan. They aren't going to be taking Northwestern as serious as they did the Wolverines.Â
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09-28-19 | Kansas v. TCU -14 | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Kansas is going to take TCU's best punch after the Horned Frogs suffered a humbling 41-38 loss to city rival SMU last weekend. TCU was 7 1/2-point favorites in that game. The loss knocked them out of the Top-25.  Gary Patterson is a no nonsense coach. He's not going to screw around here. The Horned Frogs are going to pound away at Kansas, which could be missing its leading tackler, linebacker Dru Prox. Patterson will be reminding his squad about last season's game when the Jayhawks upset the Horned Frogs, 27-26, in Kansas.  The Jayhawks are improved under new coach Les Miles. They have some good skill position players particularly at running back. But TCU owns the defensive edge and has a strong advantage in the trenches.  This probably isn't going to be a pretty win, but in the end I see the Horned Frogs controlling clock and winning by more than two touchdowns.Â
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09-28-19 | Central Michigan +17 v. Western Michigan | Top | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
Central Michigan is much improved from last year's 1-11 season under new coach Jim McElwain. This improvement has come during the Chippewas' last two games, a 45-24 home win against Akron and a 17-12 road loss to Miami as a 30 1/2-point road 'dog. The Chippewas won the time of possession battle against the Hurricanes and held them to 1.6 yards rushing and 303 total yards.  The Chippewas can control clock, too, versus Western Michigan in this Mid-American Conference rivalry matchup.  Central Michigan's has found the right quarterback in David Moore. He's started the past two games and has accounted for 533 passing yards and three touchdowns, two via the air, with one interception. The Chippewas are not the same team that was steamrolled three weeks ago by powerful Wisconsin, 61-0, in Madison. Moore didn't start that game. These two teams are much closer than this spread. Western Michigan was hammered by a Big Ten, too, three weeks ago losing to Michigan State, 51-17. The Broncos lost to Syracuse, 52-33, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs last Saturday.  Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. The Broncos will be without one of their key players, injured cornerback D'Wayne Eskridge. He also is sixth on the team in receiving yards.  The Chippewas have covered nine of their last 13 games and have gone 4-1-1 ATS the past six times meeting the Broncos.Â
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09-27-19 | San Jose State v. Air Force -18 | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -114 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
San Jose State intercepted five passes from pass-crazy Arkansas in stunning the Razorbacks, 31-24, as 20-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. It was the first time the Spartans ever defeated an SEC foe and their first victory against any power conference opponent since 2006. You can count on one hand and be missing a finger to add up the number of times San Jose State has beaten a power conference team this century. Some of the San Jose players and coaches called it the greatest win in San Jose football history. Heady stuff for the Spartans. The school and the players celebrated in grand style with a campus rally on Monday. That's a rarity and a big deal at San Jose State. The Spartans had two wins the previous two years entering this season.  Now, though, the Spartans have to travel into high altitude on a short week after returning 1,800 miles back to San Jose from Arkansas. They draw what should be an aroused Air Force team that lost to Boise State last Friday. The Falcons couldn't sustain their road victory against Colorado two weeks ago when they fell to Boise State. Now they are home again.  The Spartans aren't coming up with five interceptions again. Air Force may not even throw the ball five times. The Falcons are the nation's fourth-leading rushing team. They are a physical, option-attack team that is well drilled and disciplined. It's a terrible matchup for San Jose coming off its great victory. The Falcons are tough defensively, too. Only 19 teams surrender fewer yards per game than Air Force.Â
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09-21-19 | Georgia State v. Texas State OVER 63.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 70 h 13 m | Show | |
Georgia State gives up 43 points a game, ranking 127th in scoring defense. The Panthers are off a 57-10 loss to Western Michigan where they yielded 694 yards. The Panthers, though, have a decent offense that is balanced. They average 32 points a game. QB Dan Ellington has an 8-to-1 TD-to-Interception ratio and is the Panthers' No. 2 rusher.  Texas State is horrible defensively, too. The Bobcats just gave up 47 points and 639 yards to SMU.  This is the spot where the Bobcats' offense really could show something under coach Jake Spavital, who has a reputation as a quarterback guru. The Bobcats rank 37th passing and Georgia State is a team they can run on.  The Over has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams.Â
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09-21-19 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico UNDER 71 | 52-55 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 47 m | Show | |
New Mexico State can't hold up its end with a total this large. The Aggies have scored a combined 27 points in three games going against Washington State, Alabama and San Diego State. Yes, New Mexico is a drop-off, but this also is a rivalry game.  The Aggies averaged just 371 yards and 25 points last season. So far this seaso they are averaging 302.7 yards and nine points a game. New Mexico State QB Josh Adkins is heavily turnover-prone. The Aggies will try to establish a ground attack for the first time. They should stick with it for a while because they are stepping down in class.  New Mexico's offense has been down since the second half of last season. During their past eight games versus FBS opponents, the Lobos have failed to break 24 points in any game. They are averaging 15.2 points in these games. Their head coach, Bob Davie, is out another week recuperating from a health issue.  None of the previous four matchups between these two teams during the last four years reached a combined 70 points. This one shouldn't either.Â
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 52 h 6 m | Show | |
Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 for the past four years and this year's defense is right up there, too. The Huskies have a powerful offensive line, a balanced attack and Georgia transfer QB Jacob Eason has taken command of Chris Peterson's Washington offense. He looked good in the Huskies' 52-20 home win against Hawaii last week.  The Huskies are similar to Utah and the Utes hammered BYU, 30-12, at BYU. The Cougars rebounded from that defeat by coming up with upset victories at Tennessee and home against USC. Both of those games went overtime. BYU was outgained in each of those games, but won the turnover battle. Washington knows how to take care of the ball. Washington rolled over BYU, 35-7, last season.Â
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09-21-19 | Louisville v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 47 h 50 m | Show |
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State.  Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State.Â
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09-21-19 | Michigan +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 44 m | Show | |
Michigan has been pointing to this matchup since before the season. The Wolverines haven't looked sharp in beating Middle Tennessee and Army. They also purposely haven't shown too much.  The Badgers have outscored their two opponents, 110-0. Those two foes, though, were Central Michigan and South Florida. Wisconsin still doesn't have a good quarterback.  If this game would have been the season opener for both teams Michigan would have been favored. Playing option-oriented Army is a good thing for Michigan in its preparation against the ground-and-pound Badgers. Look for the Wolverines to load the box daring Wisconsin QB Jack Coan to beat them, which he can't.  Wisconsin faced two weak defenses. The Badgers are not properly battle-tested for Michigan's elite athleticism and size. Note, too, the Badgers are 1-8 ATS following a victory. Â
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09-20-19 | Utah -3.5 v. USC | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -103 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
If USC's Clay Helton isn't the worst head football coach in a major conference than he's certainly in the discussion for that dubious distinction. The Trojans are 7-19-1 ATS (27 percent) in their last 27 games.  Utah defeated USC, 41-28, last year with the score not fully indicative of how much the Utes dominated. Utah built a 34-14 lead, had 17 more first downs and nearly 350 more yards than USC.  The Utes have the two best skill position players on the field in QB Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, one of the best running backs in the nation. The Trojans are starting freshman Kedon Slovis at quarterback due to injuries and transfers. Slovis had a passer rating of just 54 and was picked off three times in a road overtime loss to BYU this past Saturday.  Utah met BYU in its opener and won, 30-12, on the road. The unbeaten Utes have covered 12 of their last 17 road matchups.
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09-19-19 | Houston +5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
I'm not buying into any Tulane hype, or that the Green Wave should be a favorite against Houston. The Cougars have one of the top dual threat QB's in the nation in D'Eriq King, who accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and is getting more comfortable operating Dana Holgorsen's offense. Tulane's Justin McMillan is better than some past Tulane QB's and he has a deep group of running backs and wide receivers. But King has plenty of help, too, especially with the return of running back Patrick Carr.  Tulane just played Missouri State this past Saturday. That was a cupcake opponent. Houston's statistics are skewed, especially defensively, by having already played high-powered fourth-ranked Oklahoma and 19th-ranked Washington State. So this is a drop in class for the Cougars, who covered against both of those Top-25 opponents.  The Cougars rolled past Tulane, 48-17, at home last season. The Cougars were favored by seven in that game. During the previous four seasons from 2014-2017, the Cougars were favored by eight, 27, 21 and 17 points against Tulane. Houston has covered in six of its last seven trips to Tulane.  Now the Green Wave not only is expected to beat the Cougars but cover a mid-size margin doing it. I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid.Â
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09-14-19 | Texas State v. SMU OVER 58 | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
Sonny Dykes is one of my least favorite college coaches. But you know with Dykes you're going to get a lot of passing, fast pace and not much defense even if some talent is there. SMU is averaging 43 points, while surrendering 28.5 points. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele is doing a good job operating Dykes' up-tempo attack and has two excellent receivers in James Proche and Reggie Roberson Jr.  The gem about going above this total, though, is Texas State being well below the radar as far as having a good offense. The Bobcats have managed just 21 points in two games taking on Texas A&M on the road and Wyoming. They were the lowest-scoring team in the Sun Belt Conference last year. However, the Bobcats have brought in a pair of excellent offensive minds this season - head coach Jake Spavital and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt. They like an up-tempo style, too. The Bobcats had 444 yards against Wyoming, but were hurt by three turnovers. QB Gresch Jensen threw 54 passes against the Cowboys picking up nearly 400 yards through the air.Â
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09-14-19 | Southern Miss v. Troy OVER 49 | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show | |
Troy has a strong offense. Southern Mississippi's defense is down from a year ago.  The Golden Eagles are more experienced offensively this season and QB Jack Abrahma is a high percentage quarterback.  The Over has cashed in seven of Troy's last nine games. The Over also has won at a 70 percent rate during the Trojans' last 57 nonconference games.   Â
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09-14-19 | Miami-OH v. Cincinnati UNDER 49.5 | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Pit a rivalry matchup of two running teams who each play at a slow pace and the result should be Under the total. That's what we have in a matchup of Miami of Ohio versus Cincinnati.  Both teams run the ball more than 60 percent of the time.  The RedHawks have a struggling offense that has injuries and a true freshman as their starting quarterback. They rank 117th in yards.  Cincinnati plays at a slower tempo than even Miami of Ohio. The Bearcats are very strong defensively and stepping completely down in class having just met Ohio State.  There should be extra intensity for this nonconference matchup. The two teams face each other every year for the Victory Bell. The schools only are about 45 miles apart in southwest Ohio.  The average combined total during the past three matchups is 35.3 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings.Â
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple +7.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent.  The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons.  Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back.  The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright.  A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards.Â
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest OVER 64 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -120 | 96 h 47 m | Show |
North Carolina has yet to break the 28-point barrier in two games this season. The Tar Heels, though, have faced a pair of tough defenses in South Carolina and Miami. Wake Forest has struggled the past two years on defense. The Demon Deacons finished 116th in total defense last season. I'm not impressed with their defense this season either. So this is a big drop in class for North Carolina, which has gotten good play from QB Sam Howell and RB Javonte Williams. The Over has cashed in North Carolina's last five road games.  Wake Forest is averaging nearly 40 points a game having met Utah State and Rice. Jamie Newman has come through at QB for the Demon Deacons completing 74.3 percent of his throws with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson likes to push pace and that's what his team is doing.Â
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09-07-19 | Nevada v. Oregon -23.5 | Top | 6-77 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
Oregon has won 14 straight home openers. The Ducks should have no problem extending that streak to 15 in a row hosting Nevada. Justin Herbert is in the short discussion for best QB in the country. He should find little resistance from a porous Nevada secondary. Oregon is off a brutal 27-21 loss to Auburn in which the Tigers scored the game-winning TD on a 26-yard pass with nine seconds left. Oregon has Montana on deck. So the Ducks should be fully focused for this matchup ready to take their frustrations out on a much weaker foe than Auburn. Nevada is in the opposite spot. The Wolf Pack pulled out a home victory against Purdue as a double-digit 'dog on a 56-yard field goal at the gun in their opener. Purdue had a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Wolf Pack, who couldn't stop the Boilermakers' passing attack. The Boilermakers were done in by a 5-0 turnover ratio. That's not likely to happen to a Reno opponent two straight weeks.  The Wolf Pack aren't nearly as good as the Ducks and are in a huge letdown spot. Nevada nipped Oregon State at home early in the season last year and then fell, 63-44, on the road to Toledo the following week. Look for a similar pattern here.Â
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09-07-19 | UL-Monroe v. Florida State OVER 63 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
Florida State put up 31 points in the first half against Boise State opening week before not doing anything in the second half against the Broncos. That didn't sit well with Kendal Briles, the Seminoles' sharp offensive coordinator. Look for the Seminoles to put together two strong halves against a much weaker opponent.  The Seminoles are playing at a much quicker tempo under Briles, who is in his first season at Florida State. They are facing an opponent that has a weak secondary.  Louisiana Monroe can contribute to this total going Over, too. The Warhawks have one of the better quarterbacks in the Sun Belt Conference, Caleb Evans, and good depth at running back.  The Over has cashed the past six times Florida State has played a non-conference game.Â
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA UNDER 45.5 | 23-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 36 m | Show | |
Both team's star running backs are banged up and at less than 100 percent. San Diego State's Juwan Washington is dealing with an ankle injury, while UCLA's Joshua Kelley didn't play against Cincinnati due to a sore knee. Both are questionable to play Neither team has a good passing attack. San Diego State's Ryan Agnew is a game-manager type while UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson could be the worst starting QB in the Pac-12.   Both teams, though, are solid defensively. UCLA was strong against the run versus Cincinnati.Â
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -3 v. Colorado | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 58 m | Show | |
Nebraska has been waiting a year for this rematch. The Cornhuskers lost, 33-28, at home to Colorado in their opener last season. It was Scott Frost's coaching debut for Nebraska and a bitter loss for the Cornhuskers made more bitter by the Buffaloes knocking out QB Adrian Martinez.  Martinez is back and better than ever. He's one of the premier QB's in the country and a level higher than Colorado QB Steven Montez. The Cornhuskers rushed for 329 yards against the Buffaloes.  Colorado was fortunate to open against a weak Colorado State team. The Buffaloes weren't as sharp in that game as the final score may have indicated and are down defensively from last season. Nebraska has the balanced offense to expose Colorado's defensive shortcomings. Â
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09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 67 h 29 m | Show | |
Purdue has an elite passing attack. The Boilermakers have a veteran QB and a deep group of receivers, including the incomparable Rondale Moore. The Boilermakers are in a kill spot playing their first home game after blowing a 31-14 fourth-quarter lead to Nevada last week in a 34-31 loss. Purdue couldn't overcome a 5-0 turnover deficit.  Look for the Boilermakers to be far less sloppy and far more comfortable at home.  Vanderbilt lost a number of key players from last season. The Commodores are due for a regression. They were outclassed at home by Georgia, 30-6, this past week managing just 225 yards while surrendering nearly 500 yards.Â
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09-06-19 | Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
Boise State often is overpriced when playing at home. That's the case here especially with the Broncos coming off an upset road victory against Florida State in their opener last week.  The Broncos have failed to cover in 16 of their last 23 home games. Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier spearheaded a tremendous Boise State comeback against the Seminoles as the Broncos rallied from a 31-13 deficit. The Broncos, though, are in a big letdown spot and Bachmeier will be challenged by a strong Marshall secondary. The Thundering Herd get a rare chance to play on national TV. They may be the best team in Conference USA.  While Bachmeier gets a lot of attention for his heroics, Marshall sophomore QB Isiah Green looked good in his team's 56-17 win against Virginia Military Institute last week. Green is backed by a deep of running backs and receivers.Â
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville | Top | 35-17 | Push | 0 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
Notre Dame is going to get its points in this one. Louisville's defense was terrible last season giving up an average of 44.1 points and 483.5 yards a game. The Cardinals ranked among the bottom-four in those important defensive categories. They are on their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. Making it worse, the Cardinals also got poor punting last season. Notre Dame averaged better than 36 points a game last year after Ian Book became its starting QB in Week 4.  I can't see Louisville keeping up. The Cardinals have many questions on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Scott Satterfield seems like a good hire based on his track record at Appalachian State. But it's going to take time to fix the huge mess Bobby Petrino left him.  Drawing Notre Dame for their opener is a real bad break for the Cardinals, who have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games and are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 nonleague games. Â
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09-01-19 | Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
I'm not buying that Oklahoma is more than three touchdowns better than Houston. In fact, I like Houston QB D'Eriq King more than Sooners QB Jalen Hurts. I regard King as the top QB in college football especially now that he has Dana Holgorsen as his head coach. King has the rare opportunity to showcase his skills in front of a national TV audidence with the game on ABC.  Holgorsen is an offensive guru. He was head coach at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers played Oklahoma last season and narrowly lost, 59-56.  The Sooners shouldn't be laying this high of a number to such a strong offense. Oklahoma was last in the nation in pass defense in 2018 while ranking at the bottom in the Big 12 in scoring defense and total defense. The Sooners also have a question mark at kicker as the FBS' all-time leading scorer among kickers, Austin Seibert, has left.  This is going to be a shootout of the highest proportions. Houston was very weak against the run last season. And that was with stud Ed Oliver. But the Cougars have defensive line depth, experience at the safety spots and get to go against the Sooners in their first game breaking in four new offensive line starters.Â
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08-31-19 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 172 h 41 m | Show |
Virginia Tech's defense was historically bad under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year. The Hokies should be improved as they can't get much worse. But it's going to take time.  The Hokies gave up 31 points a game last season, which ranked 85th. They were 98th in yards allowed and their run defense ranked 106th. BC has one of the top running backs in the nation, AJ Dillon. He's fresh and healthy, something he wasn't last year.  Eagles QB Anthony Brown has experience and is capable of running the offense. He has improved as a passer.  The Eagles won, 31-21, against Virginia Tech last season on the road. I do think the Hokies will be better, but this isn't a good matchup for them and it's the first game. So I'll gladly accept these points.Â
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08-31-19 | Akron v. Illinois UNDER 61 | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
Maybe it's a leap of faith to project these defenses to be improved. But I believe this total is too high. Akron actually has some good linebackers and a very good safety, Alvin Davis. The Zips held seven of their last 10 foes to 28 points or less in 2018.  Illinois had a very bad defense last year. That's a reason why this total is so high. But the Illini have some promising young players on defense. They also figure to play ball control in this matchup running the ball alot with Reggie Corbin. Lovie Smith is a very conservative coach and he's favored by close to three touchdowns in this game. So expect Illinois not to take any chances. Just be very vanilla especially since this is the first game.Â
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08-31-19 | Akron +19 v. Illinois | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
Illinois isn't nearly good enough to be laying this many points even to a low-level MAC team such as Akron. The Illini have averaged three wins during the past three seasons during the Lovie Smith era.  The Illini finished 1-6 in their last seven games and and had the worst defense in the Big Ten. They ranked fifth from the bottom in the NCAA in yards allowed. They are not used to this reverse role where the pressure not only is on them to win but cover a huge number.  Akron won't lack motivation playing its first game under new coach Tom Arth. The Zips have firepower. Their strength is at the skill positions with quarterback Kato Nelson and three decent wide receivers.  The Zips upset Northwestern, 39-34, in their first road game last season. Illinois also played Northwestern last year and lost to the Wildcats, 24-16.Â
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08-30-19 | Colorado State v. Colorado -12.5 | 31-52 | Win | 100 | 154 h 50 m | Show | |
The gap has gotten wider between these two in-state rivals. That was evident last season when Colorado blasted the Rams, 45-13. I see the Buffaloes winning by at least two touchdowns again. New Colorado head coach Mel Tucker will be wanting to make a statement. He has the wide edge in athletes to accomplish that. The Buffaloes should be solid on defense under defensive-minded Tucker and their offense should pick up being more up-tempo than before under Mike MacIntyre. Steven Montez is a solid quarterback and the Buffaloes are deep at receiver. Laviska Shenault is in the argument for best wideout in the nation and the Rams are shaky at linebacker.  Note this game is being played in Denver. Colorado State has failed to cover the past eight times it has played at a neutral site. Â
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08-30-19 | Purdue -9.5 v. Nevada | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 250 h 47 m | Show |
If I could pick one wide receiver to have on my college football team it would be Purdue's Rondale Moore. He's the most exciting player in college football in my view. This is a perfect storm of key factors that point to Purdue beating Nevada by double-digits. Moore heads up a very strong group of Purdue receivers. Even tight end Brycen Hopkins is very good for the Boilermakers. Senior QB Elijah Sindelar is underrated at this point. He's going to have a big season with so many talented receiving targets. Nevada has a very weak secondary.  The Wolf Pack also are untested at quarterback, smaller than Purdue and weaker in the trenches.  The Boilermakers have been pointing to this game for a long time after being humiliated, 63-14, by Auburn in the Music City Bowl.  Purdue has won each of its road openers under Jeff Brohm beating Nebraska, 42-28, last year and Missouri, 35-3, two seasons ago. Those are better teams than Nevada. The Boilermakers can't misfire here knowing Vanderbilt and TCU are up next for them before they enter Big Ten action.  So expect a strong, focused effort from the better team that should result in an easy victory. |
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08-30-19 | Rice v. Army OVER 48 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 7 m | Show |
You better be able to stop the run when playing Army. Rice can't do that. The Owls ranked 112th in scoring defense and 103rd in yards given up last season. Things don't look much better for Rice this season as the Owls had several defections on their defensive line.  Army has the quarterback and ground attack to take advantage. The Black Knights finished No. 2 in rushing last season. Army QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. was the first player in Army history to run and pass for more than 1,000 yards.  Rice has excellent depth at wide receiver and at running back. The Owls even have a good tight end. Army's defense is down several key seniors from a year ago and has some vulnerability at linebacker that Rice can exploit.  The Over is 12-3-2 the past 17 times Rice has played a non-conference opponent.Â
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08-29-19 | UCLA v. Cincinnati UNDER 58 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
This total has been bet down, but there still is value on the Under.  The teams met in their opening game last year and the Bearcats won, 26-17. Cincinnati held UCLA to just 306 total yards of offense. The Bearcats led the AAC in scoring defense and run defense last season. Their defense should be tough again this year. I'm not sold either on UCLA sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  UCLA has good size on its defensive line. Cincinnati does possess excellent talent at the skill positions. However, the Bearcats have an inexperienced offensive line.  Look for both teams to stay on the ground a lot, which eats clock. When the Bruins throw it could be short passes to their running backs.Â
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +5.5 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 115 h 3 m | Show |
Clemson isn't getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Tigers are every bit as good - if not better - than Alabama.  Yes, the SEC is a better football conference than the ACC. No argument there. But I will argue the Tigers passed a tough schedule with flying colors beating 10 Bowl teams, eight of them by 20 or more points. Clemson is every bit as dominating as Alabama ranking fourth in points scored while giving up the fewest points per game in the nation.  The Tigers have proven themselves huge money-winners in the postseason, too, covering eight of their last nine bowl games.  Alabama's defense showed some vulnerability against Oklahoma. True, the Sooners have a great offense. But so does Clemson. I like Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence much more than Kelly Bryant. The Tide defeated Clemson, 24-6, in the Sugar Bowl last season when Bryant was behind center. This time around it will be much different.Â
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01-01-19 | Texas +13.5 v. Georgia | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
Not sure of Georgia's motivation for this game after playing for the national title game last season and falling short against Alabama this season.  I'm not doubting the Bulldogs' talent. But Texas is going to be up for this game. The Longhorns never lack talent either and they have the best underdog coach going for them in Tom Herman.  How good of a 'dog coach is Herman? If you take his last four jobs as offensive coordinator and head coach his teams are 23-2 ATS for 92 percent when taking points!  Texas has a pair of dangerous big-play versatile receivers in Collin Johnson and Lil' Jordan Humphrey. The Bulldogs are without their top defensive back, Deandre Baker, who is sitting out the game to prepare for the NFL draft.Â
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
I want Ohio State going for me in Urban Meyer's final game as Buckeyes coach and the price isn't too high to get it. The Pac 12 is down this season. That's reflected in the bowls.  Washington is one-dimensional relying on a strong defense. But Ohio State has a great offense ranking No. 2 in the nation in yards gained and seventh in points. The Buckeyes average 17 points more per game than the Huskies and play in the stronger conference in my view. If the Huskies fall behind early they are in big trouble because they lack an explosive offense.  When motivated the Buckeyes can beat any team with the exception of Alabama and Clemson. Washington isn't close to being in that class. The Huskies lost to Auburn, Oregon and California. Ohio State displayed its power by burying Michigan, 62-39, in its last game.  I see a class difference here. Throw in the huge motivating factor to get Meyer a victory in his finale and I'll lay the points.Â
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 55.5 | Top | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
Both teams rank among the top 26 in scoring. NC State averages 35.6 points. Texas A&M averages 34.7 points. So I find this total short. Neither defense can is strong enough to slow the other offense down. North Carolina State has a stud QB in Ryan Finley. He has a deep group of receivers to throw, including Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers. Both of whom had more than 1,000 yards receiving this season.  The Wolfpack have gone Over in each of their last eight neutral site games. The Over has cashed in each of North Carolina State's last six bowl games.  Texas A&M has gone Over in six of its last seven nonconference games. The Aggies have one of the best running backs in college football, Trayveon Williams, and also one of the better tight ends, Jace Sternberger, who had 804 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.Â
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12-31-18 | Missouri v. Oklahoma State +10 | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
If Missouri is the better team here, the Tigers aren't more than a touchdown better than Oklahoma State.  Both offenses are strong. Missouri has the better defense, but Oklahoma State can score on any team. The Cowboys rank 14th in scoring and 10th in yardage. QB Taylor Cornelius is one of the most dangerous dual threats in the country. Cornelius is backed by talented running backs.  The Tigers didn't see a lot of wide open attacks like Oklahoma State has playing in the SEC. The Tigers have good skill position talent, too, but Drew Lock doesn't have Cornelius' mobility and the Tigers could be missing several of their weapons with running back Damarea Crockett, wide receiver Jalen Knox and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam all banged-up.  The Cowboys have been point spread gold in nonleague games covering eight of their past nine nonconference matchups.Â
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -6.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is not a very good Virginia Tech team. The Hokies just were able to sneak into a bowl game. I find Cincinnati to not only be the superior team, but the more motivated one. The Bearcats surrendered 152 fewer yards per game than the Hokies. Cincinnati gave up fewer than 17 points a game, while Virginia Tech allowed nearly 32 points per game. The Hokies can be run on and passed on yielding more than 220 yards both ways.   Cincinnati has the skill position talent to exploit Virginia Tech's vulnerable defense with dual threat quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Michael Warren II. The Bearcats also have the best pass rusher in the game in Cortez Broughton and an excellent punter, James Smith.  When Virginia Tech loses it is not by a close count. All of the Hokies' six defeats came by 10 or more points.Â
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 57 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
Clemson's Travis Etienne and Notre Dame's Dexter Williams are two excellent running backs. I expect a lot of carries for these two backs given the high quality of these defenses and the inexperience of each team's quarterback when going against an elite defense. Running the ball eats clock.  So given this high of a total, Under is the way to go.  Notre Dame ranks 10th in scoring defense allowing just 17.2 points a game. The Irish do not give up big plays, which has been a staple of Clemson's quick-strike offense.  Clemson also doesn't give up big plays. The Tigers rank fourth in the country in both fewest yards and fewest points allowed. I don't see Notre Dame QB Ian Book having too much success against the Tigers.  The Irish defense, with their strong defensive front, can contain Clemson freshman QB Trevor Lawrence.Â
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12-29-18 | South Carolina v. Virginia +5 | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
Virginia has steadily improved under Bronco Mendenhall. The Cavaliers reached a bowl game last season and now they are ready to win one after getting crushed by Navy, 49-7, in a bowl game that was more like a home game for the Midshipmen.  South Carolina has a strong passing attack. However the Gamecocks have two things against them. They won't have their best wideout, Deebo Samuel, who is sitting out for personal reasons. And they are facing a strong Virginia secondary that ranked 14th in the nation in pass defense.  The Cavaliers have an excellent quarterback in Bryce Perkins, a dual threat who accounted for 3,314 all-purpose yards and 31 touchdowns. South Carolina will be without two injured defensive starters, too, tackle Javon Kinlaw and cornerback Keisean Nixon.Â
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12-28-18 | Iowa State +3 v. Washington State | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 16 m | Show |
There are many reasons to like Iowa State against Washington State especially when the wrong team is favored.  Iowa State played in the tougher conference and faced a tougher schedule. The Pac-12 was extremely weak this year.  Washington State is a one-dimensional passing team. This is a reflection on its coach, Mike Leach. Iowa State is used to facing passing teams being in the Big 12. The Cyclones have a solid defense. They held West Virginia and Baylor to 14 points each. If the Cyclones can stop Will Grier like they did, they can slow down Gardner Minshew.  I find Leach to be an overrated coach. I base much of this opinion on his being 1-7 ATS in his last eight bowl games. The long layoff from the end of the regular season to the bowl game is a real negative for Washington State, throwing off its timing in the passing game. The Cougars are averaging just 16.3 points during their past three bowl games.  Washington State was hoping to play in the Rose Bowl. The Cougars had to settle for this minor Alamo Bowl game after losing 28-15 at home to long-time Pac 12 rival Washington. So the Cougars may not be fully motivated.  Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy proved himself this season with a 16-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in eight games. He has a pair of tremendous skill position weapons in running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Hakeem Butler.  I also like Iowa State coach Matt Campbell. His Cyclones have covered 69 percent of the time in the 36 past instances when they were underdogs of three points or higher.  |
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12-27-18 | Duke +3.5 v. Temple | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
Care to lay points with an 8-4 American Athletic Conference school against an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent, who owns victories this season against bowl teams Army, Northwestern, Baylor, Georgia Tech and Miami?  I sure don't. That's one reason I'm taking the points with Duke against Temple in the Independence Bowl. Please note this game goes early Thursday.  The Blue Devils are going for their third straight bowl win. They have a tremendous bowl and underdog coach in David Cutcliffe, whose teams have covered 60 percent of the time the past 80 times they have been underdogs. Cutcliffe's teams are 8-2 ATS, too, in bowl games. Temple, by contrast, has a messed-up coaching situation. Ed Foley will be coaching just his second game as Owls head coach Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech. The Owls' biggest wins were against Maryland, which finished with a losing record in the down Big Ten, and Houston. The Cougars just got blasted, 70-14, by Army in the Armed Forces Bowl.   It's clear Duke has played a far tougher schedule. Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones is a pro prospect.  Wrong team favored in my view.Â
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
Minnesota ranks 74th in run defense. The Gophers give up 5.2 yards per run, second-worst among all bowl team. And these numbers include the Gophers having their best defensive player, senior linebacker Blake Cashman, who is sitting out this game in preparation for the NFL draft. Cashman was in on 104 tackles.  If you can't stop the run, you can't beat Georgia Tech with its unique triple-option attack. The Yellow Jackets are the No. 1 rushing team in the country averaging 335 yards on the ground. Minnesota's defense isn't that good to begin with and now facing Georgia Tech and without Cashman it is in real trouble.  The Yellow Jackets have an underrated defense ranking 45th in total yards. The Gophers were 89th in yards gained.  The topper is the Yellow Jackets will be highly motivated to bury the Gophers as a sendoff to their coach, Paul Johnson. He is retiring after this game.Â
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12-22-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Hawaii UNDER 61.5 | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
It's easy to think that there are a lot of points going to be scored in this bowl matchup pitting Louisiana Tech against Hawaii. Louisiana Tech has averaged 45.2 points during its past four bowl games while Hawaii averages 32.1 points a game this season. But the total is set too high based on reputation rather than reality.  Louisiana Tech isn't nearly the offensive machine of previous seasons. The Bulldogs rank 101st in scoring at 24.2 points per game. Their offensive decline is made up for by their defensive improvement. The Bulldogs held opponents to 23.8 points a game. The result has been a 7-3-1 mark to the Under for Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have the pass rush, led by star defensive end Jaylon Ferguson, to bother Cole McDonald. The average combined total in Louisiana Tech's games versus FBS foes came out to fewer than 46 points per game.  Hawaii's defense isn't as good as the Bulldogs. But the Rainbow Warriors aren't pitted against a good quarterback. Louisiana Tech QB J'Mar Smith had just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last eight games while completing less than 57 percent of his throws.
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12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show |
Current form and superior defense are two keys in projecting bowl winners. So is pedigree. Marshall has all these factors going and the spread is low enough to back the Thundering Herd.  Marshall has won and covered each of its last six bowl games under Doc Holliday. Holliday is a coach you can count on. South Florida is in terrible form. The Bulls were bogus when they opened 7-0. That was proven when they finished the regular-season with five straight losses, all by double-digits.  The Thundering Herd own a huge defensive advantage. They rank 31st in the country in fewest points allowed at 22 per game. South Florida ranks 92nd in points given up at 31.5. That number shoots up to 39.6 if you count just the Bulls' last five games. |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Appalachian State OVER 47.5 | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show | |
I find this total low given the quality of the offenses and this game being played on a fast track inside the Louisiana Superdome.  Yes, Appalachian State has a strong defense. But the Mountaineers also have a strong, balanced offense that averages 36.7 points a game. Their quarterback, Zac Thomas, is a dual threat so Middle Tennessee State has to respect both the pass and run. The Blue Raiders' defense has shown signs of slippage surrendering 27 or more points in three of their last four games.  I've always liked Blue Raiders QB Brent Stockstill. He had another big season throwing for 3,214 yards and 28 touchdowns. Middle Tennessee State averaged nearly 30 points a game and close to 400 yards per contest. The Blue Raiders also have a balanced attack.Â
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State -4 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show |
Credit to Herm Edwards for doing an excellent job with Arizona State. But the Sun Devils are not in Fresno State's class.  Fresno State is holding foes to 13.7 points a game this season. That's the second-best scoring defense in the nation. Arizona State surrendered 12 more points per game than the Bulldogs.  The Sun Devils will be without their best player with wide receiver N'Keal Harry deciding to skip the game in order to prepare for the NFL draft where he is expected to go in the first round. I'm not that high on ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins especially since he won't have Harry anymore. An insight into this matchup could come with common opponents. Both teams played San Diego State at home. Fresno State beat the Aztecs, 23-14, and had a 108-yard advantage, where as the Sun Devils lost 28-21 to the Aztecs and were outgained, 440-377.  Each team also played UCLA. Fresno State whipped the Bruins, 38-14, on the road while outgaining them by 150 yards. ASU nipped the Bruins, 31-28, while playing at home and only outgained them by 41 yards.Â
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12-01-18 | Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 61 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show | |
Ohio State covered this total by itself last week putting up 62 points and piling up more than 500 yards. And that was against Michigan, a much stronger defensive team than Northwestern.  The Wildcats can contribute their share of points, too, as their offense has picked up. The Wildcats have scored 24 points in each of their last two games. Ohio State's pass defense ranks 78th. It has been a down year for Ohio State's defense given its past history. The Over has cashed four of the past five times the teams have met. Note, too, this game is being played indoors on carpet at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Â
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