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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State v. Georgia OVER 62 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
Georgia's defense has gotten a lot of credit and publicity during the past two seasons. But the Bulldogs' offense isn't too shabby either. They ranked seventh in total offense and 11th in scoring at 39.2 points a game. Stetson Bennett has improved as a passer. The Bulldogs were especially impressive in the red zone scoring 97 percent of the time during 71 trips inside the 20. It's alarming to see how many big plays Ohio State gave up to Michigan in its 45-23 loss during its last game. That game went Over. No surprise as the Buckeyes have gone Over in nine of their last 10 games. Georgia didn't face too many really strong passing attacks. Ohio State is the best the Bulldogs have seen. C.J. Stroud had the highest passer efficiency rating in the country. He may have the best wide receiver in the country, too, in Marvin Harrison Jr. The Buckeyes had the second-highest yards per play in the nation. The Bulldogs surrendered 30 points and 505 passing yards to LSU in their last game, the SEC title game. |
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12-31-22 | Kansas State v. Alabama OVER 56 | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a loose game between strong offenses that should result in this total going Over. Kansas State is thrilled to be in the Sugar Bowl. The Wildcats got their offense in full gear averaging 38.6 points during their last six games to win the Big 12 championship. They feature one of the top all-purpose backs in the nation in Deuce Vaughn. Alabama is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 40.8 points led by Heisman Trophy-winning QB Bryce Young. The Tide, though, are disappointed they didn't make the College Football Playoffs. Unlike Kansas State, they had a number of opt-outs. But Alabama has a deep roster. This is the Tide's chance to get those offensive players big-time experience, so I'm expecting them to play aggressive. That's been their style as seven of their last nine bowl games have gone Over. |
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12-30-22 | Clemson v. Tennessee UNDER 63.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show | |
Both defenses are not getting enough respect here especially with each minus its starting quarterback. Clemson surrenders just 20.1 points a game. The Tigers ranked 10th in run defense. Georgia might be the best defensive team in the country. But Clemson was close to the Bulldogs giving up 4.97 yards per play compared to Georgia's 4.88. The Tigers get to face a Tennessee squad that has lost much of its feared passing attack. The Volunteers lost their stud QB Hendon Hooker to a season-ending injury two games ago. The Vols also will be without their top wide receiver, Jalin Hyatt, and third-best wideout, Cedric Tillman. Both opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Joe Milton replaces Hooker - and it's a monster drop-off. Tennessee gave up 27 points or fewer in nine games. The Vols held opponents to 23.5 points on the season while ranking 18th in run defense. Because of using largely untested backup quarterbacks, both teams will emphasize the run more, which will eat clock. Each team has strong run defenses, too. |
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12-30-22 | Wyoming +2.5 v. Ohio | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
I see the wrong team being favored here. Both teams are off bad losses in their last game. But there's a difference. Ohio lost 17-7 to Toledo in the Mid-American Conference championship game. The Bobcats displayed a lack of offense minus Kurtis Rourke, their star quarterback. They could manage only seven points and 262 yards in the MAC title game without Rourke, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year and easily Ohio's most important player. Wyoming let up after clinching a bowl spot losing its last two games to Boise State by three points and getting blown out by Fresno State in its last game. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Cowboys, who have won their last three bowl games and are well-coached under Craig Bohl. The Cowboys beat Kent State, another MAC school, in their bowl game last season, 52-38. Ohio is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. Wyoming has the superior defense giving up 23.4 points a game. Ohio gives up 28.4 points. The Bobcats rank 113th in total defense and 130th in pass defense. |
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12-28-22 | Ole Miss v. Texas Tech UNDER 71.5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
This total has been bet up - too far up in my view. Mississippi is a running team with a respectable defense that gives up 24.2 points a game. The Rebels enter this matchup having lost three in a row. They are averaging just 24.8 points in their last five games. Mississippi played in the Sugar Bowl last year and lost 21-7 to Baylor. It was the fifth straight bowl game the Rebels went Under the total. Texas Tech's season offensive numbers are skewed because of three overtime games. The Red Raiders are capable of playing stout defense. They held Iowa State and West Virginia to 10 points each. The Under has cashed in eight of the Red Raiders' last 11 non-conference games. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
When last spotted, Coastal Carolina was losing 45-26 to Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Chanticleers were hammered by James Madison, 47-7, in their previous game before losing to Troy. That put Coastal Carolina's ATS record to 2-8 against opponents with a winning record. Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach, too, for this game. Its head coach, Jamey Chadwell, left Coastal Carolina on Dec. 4 to become head coach at Liberty. The Chanticleers also will be without its best offensive lineman, Willie Lampkin, and top pass rusher, Josiah Stewart.  East Carolina played a tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and has a more explosive offense behind five-year veteran Horton Ahlers. The Pirates rank 24th in total yards. They've committed only two turnovers! Coastal Carolina ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 30.1 points, which is what East Carolina averages per game. The Chanticleers are 124th in pass defense. The Pirates are 13-5-1 ATS against above .500 teams. They have the more stable coaching staff, too, under Mike Houston. |
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12-24-22 | Middle Tennessee State v. San Diego State UNDER 47.5 | 25-23 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
San Diego State gives up just 20.2 points per game, which ranks 20th in the nation. The Aztecs only average 21.3 points a game and even that low total is skewed by scoring 38 points against Idaho State and 43 versus San Jose State. That inflated their season total. The Aztecs scored 23 points or less in eight of their other nine games against FBS competition. The Under is 12-5-1 the last 18 times the Aztecs have met an above .500 foe. Middle Tennessee State came on defensively holding three of its last five opponents to 21 points or less. |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +4 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
This bowl game is a real letdown for Baylor, which beat Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl last season and had high expectations this season. Those expectations were not met as the Bears finished just 6-6. Air Force is one of the most unique and difficult teams to defend and practice against because the Falcons run the triple-option. The Falcons are the No. 1 rushing team in the nation. They have the third-leading rusher in the country, fullback Brad Roberts, and quarterback Haaziq Daniels, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns while averaging more than 20 yards per completion. Air Force is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games because the Falcons are so unique and hard to prepare against. Baylor is just OK stopping the run. That's not good enough especially when combined with a perceived lack of motivation. Baylor averages 33.6 points a game. I just don't see the Bears having the ball that much. Air Force led the nation in time of possession at 36:22. No team limited the opposition to fewer plays than Air Force. Look for the Falcons to control the ball, eat clock keeping Baylor's offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. |
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12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty UNDER 54 | Top | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 26 m | Show |
Don't be fooled by Toledo playing in the high-scoring Mid-American Conference. Also don't be fooled by this game being played in South Florida. Toledo easily is the best defensive team in the MAC. They rank 24th in defensive total yards in the country and just held Ohio to seven points in the MAC title game, which was 25 points below the Bobcats' season average. Liberty hasn't been the same since it lost its coach, Huge Freeze, to Auburn. The Flames averaged just 22.4 points in their last four games. Until that happened, Liberty was a strong defensive team. The Flames should regroup for this bowl game. They have a superstar defensive lineman in Durrell Johnson, who has eight sacks and 22 1/2 tackles for losses. The weather is a plus, too, for the Under with an 80 percent chance of rain and wind in the 15-20 mph range. |
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12-17-22 | Florida +8.5 v. Oregon State | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
OK, no Anthony Richardson for Florida. But still too much respect is being given to Oregon State in this Las Vegas Bowl matchup. Florida is SEC. The Gators are 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season. Their only loss by more than 10 points came to Georgia. Oregon State is Pac-12 and not even prime Pac-12 like USC, UCLA, Utah and Oregon. The Beavers don't have the athletes Florida has. Jack Miller III is set to make his first college start replacing Richardson, who opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Miller was CJ Stroud's backup at Ohio State before transferring. The Beavers rank 75th in pass defense. Miller can rely on a 16th-ranked ground attack, although dual threat Richardson was responsible for some of the Gators' impressive rushing figures. Oregon State is going with its own backup quarterback as a starter. Ben Gulbranson replaced injured Chance Nolan at the start of October. The Beavers rank 103rd in passing. They count on freshman running back Damien Martinez. Oregon State won its big game with a 38-34 come-from-behind win against Oregon on Nov. 26. That victory, more than this minor bowl game, is the Beavers' season highlight. Both teams had the opportunity to play Pac-12 power Utah. The Gators upset the Utes, 29-26, at home while Utah buried Oregon State, 42-16, at home. |
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12-16-22 | Troy +1.5 v. UTSA | Top | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
Both teams are 11-2, are conference champions and each own 10-game win streaks. Troy won the Sun Belt. Texas San Antonio captured Conference USA. The difference is Troy continues to be underrated by the linesmaker. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS. I believe they should be favored in this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando, Fla. Troy has the necessary defense to slow down the Roadrunners, who average 38.7 points. The Trojans rank eighth in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points per game and are 19th in total defense giving up 325.3 yards a game. The Trojans recorded 39 sacks, bad news for San Antonio's sixth-year QB Frank Harris. Linebacker Carlton Martial was the best defensive player in the Sun Belt. The Roadrunners don't have nearly as good a defense as Troy, nor do they have the bowl pedigree having lost each of the past two seasons in bowl games. Troy has won its past four bowl games. The Trojans got their offense in gear behind QB Gunnar Watson and running back KImani Vidal. The Trojans averaged 42.3 points in their last three games. The Roadrunners rank 90th in total defense and 101st in pass defense. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
When is playing in the Big Ten title game a letdown? The answer is when you're Michigan and you just defeated previously undefeated Ohio State in Columbus last week, 45-23. Beating the Buckeyes is the highlight of the Wolverines' season. It's going to be difficult for Michigan to turn around a week later and cover this large of a number against a feisty Purdue team that has nothing to lose. Purdue has a winning record in 13 games the past five years taking on ranked foes. The Boilermakers catch a huge break that the Wolverines will be without their star running back Blake Corum, who is out with a knee injury. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson v. North Carolina +7.5 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 59 m | Show |
The combination of North Carolina star QB Drake Maye and Clemson being eliminated from the College Football Playoffs helps put me on the underdog Tar Heels. North Carolina isn't going to be involved in the College Football Playoffs either, but the Tar Heels knew that. They've been pointing to this matchup for weeks knowing they had qualified for this title game. I think that factored in the Tar Heels not playing well in their last two games, upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State after having won nine of their first 10 games. There was no incentive for them. There will here. There's a huge gap in quarterbacks. Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei has been a major disappointment never adequately replacing Trevor Lawrence. Maye, on the other hand, has put up superstar numbers - 3,847 passing yards and 35 TD passes along with six rushing TD's. He leads the nation in total offense with 4,476 yards. Uiagalelei was terrible last season and he has been inconsistent this season even getting benched in spots. Notre Dame defeated Clemson by 21 points. North Carolina fell to the Irish by 13 points. That was the Tar Heels' only defeat of more than four points. |
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12-03-22 | LSU v. Georgia UNDER 52.5 | 30-50 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
Defending national champion Georgia had a defense for the ages last season. Their defense isn't too shabby this season either. The Bulldogs give up the fewest points in the country at 11.3. No team has scored more than 22 points in a game against the Bulldogs. Georgia also ranks No. 1 against the run and fourth in total defense. LSU's defense is very respectful. The Tigers rank 33rd in total defense and scoring defense. The Tigers held seven of their opponents to 20 points or less. LSU held Arkansas to 13 points, which is 17.7 points under its average. The Tigers gave up just 10 points to Alabama-Birmingham, which was 20.6 points under the Blazers' average. LSU held Mississippi to 20 points, which was 14.2 points below its average. Mississippi State could manage just 16 points versus the Tigers, which was 22 points under its average. Florida State scored 24 points against the Tigers. That was 12.2 points under the Seminoles' average. |
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11-26-22 | Nevada +12.5 v. UNLV | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
UNLV's season began highly promising with the Rebels going 4-1. But the Rebels won't be going bowling having lost their past six games, including their last one as an 11-point road favorite against Hawaii. Nevada-Reno blew out the Rebels, 51-20, in last year's annual rivalry game at home. This one is at UNLV. The Wolf Pack have gone through a rebuilding season. They aren't good. But this has been an underdog series with the 'dog winning six of the last nine times straight-up. Nevada always gets up for this game more than the Rebels. UNLV may win based on a superior ground attack, but Nevada will be giving an all-out effort and should stay within double-digits. The Rebels just aren't strong enough to lay this high of a number. |
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11-26-22 | Iowa State v. TCU UNDER 47.5 | Top | 14-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Iowa State has gone Under in its last seven Big 12 Conference games. It's easy to see why. The Cyclones have the top defense in the league, but the worst offense. The Cyclones aren't going bowling for the first time since 2016. So playing unbeaten fourth-ranked TCU is their bowl game. Look for Iowa State to play its usual tough defensive, field-position type of game especially being on the road. The Under is 21-8-1 in the Cyclones' last 30 road contests. TCU already has its ticket punched for the Big 12 title game next week. The Horned Frogs don't want to show too much in this game so as not to tip their hand. They would be satisfied with a victory, not running up a huge score. |
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11-26-22 | Auburn +22.5 v. Alabama | 27-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a monster rivalry game. The question is can Auburn can hang within three touchdowns of the Crimson Tide? Before this month, I would have said no. Now I say yes seeing how the Tigers have performed under interim coach Carnell Williams. Williams starred at Auburn before going on to the NFL playing for the Buccaneers. He has reignited a Tigers program that was dead earlier this season. Auburn is 3-0 ATS since Williams took over losing to Mississippi State in overtime as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog, edging Texas A&M and rolling past Western Kentucky. I trust the Tigers to play hard again for Williams especially in this matchup. Great expectations were expected of Alabama this season, but the Crimson Tide have been overrated with losses to Tennessee and LSU. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. |
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11-26-22 | South Carolina v. Clemson OVER 52.5 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
The buy sign is on these two offenses. Spencer Rattler finally lived up to his big reputation last week for South Carolina. The Oklahoma transfer passed for 438 yards and six touchdowns in the Gamecocks' 63-38 win against Tennessee. The Over has cashed in 11 of South Carolina's last 14 road games. Clemson's attack is in gear, too. The Tigers have produced a combined 71 points in their last two games crushing Miami and Louisville. |
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11-26-22 | Georgia State v. Marshall UNDER 50 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 15 m | Show |
You can't go wrong taking the Under when Marshall is involved. The Thundering Herd has gone Under in nine of its 11 games. Marshall has a top-10 defense, a weak passing attack and runs the ball a lot. That's a winning Under combination. Georgia State can't pass either. The Panthers rank 107th in passing. Marshall is hardly any better, rating 104th in passing. Marshall is holding foes to 15.5 points a game. Georgia State's defense isn't very good, but it is opportunistic coming up with 13 takeaways, which ranks 15th in the nation. The oddsmaker has opened this total too high. There haven't been more than 49 points scored in any of Marshall's past eight games. This one shouldn't be any different. Note, too, that the early weather forecast is for a 50 percent chance of rain with 10-to-15 mph winds. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Missouri is tough at home going 4-2 with the losses coming to Georgia and Kentucky by four points each. That's the closest any team has come to beating undefeated Georgia this season. The Tigers can secure bowl eligibility with a victory. It's also a revenge spot for the Tigers. Arkansas won last year's game, 34-17. Previous to that, though, the Tigers had won five in a row in the series.  Arkansas gained its bowl eligibility last week upsetting Mississippi, 42-27. The Razorbacks could suffer a letdown after that great win. This is just Arkansas' fourth true road game. The Razorbacks could be minus their second-leading tackler, linebacker Bumper Pool. He's dealing with hip and back injuries. |
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11-19-22 | UNLV v. Hawaii +11.5 | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
UNLV isn't playing as well as it did in September and doesn't deserve to be this high of a road favorite against Hawaii. The Rebels have lost four games in a row. They are 1-4 on the road this season. Going to Hawaii is a unique trip because it involves a long flight and a two-hour time zone difference, not to mention a completely different atmosphere. Hawaii has covered five of its last six games. Only once during their last seven games have the Rainbow Warriors been beaten by more than seven points. They are stepping down in class, too, having faced Utah State, Fresno State and Wyoming in their past three games. |
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11-19-22 | Fresno State v. Nevada OVER 54 | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
Fresno State is far more potent with star QB Jake Haener back. The Bulldogs have scored 32 points or more points in each of their last four games. They average nearly 39 points in games Haener has started and finished. Nevada's defense doesn't have nearly the talent to keep Haener and running back Jordan Mims in check. The Bulldogs could come close to covering this total themselves. But the Wolf Pack can chip in because they should be able to run on Fresno State, which ranks 95th in rush defense. This in turn will make it easier for the Wolf Pack to pass.Â
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11-19-22 | UAB +15 v. LSU | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham has the right ingredients to spring a major upset here. The Blazers have a good defense, a strong ground attack led by talented DeWayne McBride and catch LSU in a letdown and look-ahead spot. UAB gives up 21.3 points and ranks 29th in total defense with the 15th-best pass defense. Western Kentucky, which ranks fourth in passing yards, could manage just 128 yards through the air at home against the Blazers. Only five teams average more running yards per game than UAB. McBride averages nearly seven yards a carry. The Blazers can control the clock by successfully running the ball. LSU has already clinched its ticket to the SEC championship game against Georgia. |
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11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
Mississippi's hopes of winning the SEC West Division ended last week with a narrow loss to Alabama. Following this game, the Rebels meet in-state conference rival Mississippi State in their annual Egg Bowl game. So it's a difficult situational spot for the Rebels going on the road to face Arkansas. The 5-5 Razorbacks have all kinds of incentive. Not only do they have revenge for a wild 52-51 loss last year to Mississippi State, but they need a sixth win to be bowl eligible. Ole Miss has failed to cover during its last four visits to Arkansas. Arkansas held LSU to 284 total yards in a 13-10 home loss last week. Now the Razorbacks get back QB KJ Jefferson, who didn't play against LSU. Jefferson is back for this game giving the Razorbacks a dynamic dual threat quarterback weapon. Jefferson has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,981 yards with a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 425 yards with six TD's on the ground. |
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11-19-22 | Connecticut v. Army -10 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show | |
Great job this season by Jim Mora getting Connecticut up to six wins, which makes the Huskies bowl eligible for the first time in seven years. The Huskies reached this point by upsetting previously 19th-ranked Liberty, 36-33, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs this past Saturday. Connecticut isn't nearly talented enough to cover spreads if it's not playing at a high level. The Huskies could have trouble doing that in an obvious letdown spot. But it's not just the letdown factor. The Huskies are going to have plenty of problems with Army's triple-option attack. The Black Knights are No. 2 in the country in rushing averaging nearly 300 yards on the ground per game. Connecticut is 73rd in run defense, but even its below average run defense statistics are skewed because of playing passing teams early in the season. The Huskies don't have the offense to cover for a bad defense. They have failed to break the 21-point barrier in seven of their 11 games. They rank 125th in total yards and 112th in scoring. Army blasted the Huskies, 52-21, last season. Sure the Huskies are much improved, but given the spot I don't see them staying within single digits. |
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11-19-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Florida State -23.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Florida State is peaking at the right time. The Seminoles have won their last three games - against Syracuse, Miami and Georgia Tech - by an average score of 41-7. Don't expect Louisiana Lafayette to fare any better. This isn't the Ragin' Cajuns of past years unders Billy Napier, who is at Florida now. Lafayette is coming off a home win against Georgia Southern and finishes back in the Sun Belt Conference against Texas State. If the Ragin Cajuns beat 3-7 Texas State they would become bowl eligible. So this non-conference game doesn't mean much. Lafayette has suffered three road defeats. The last time they were on the road, the Ragin' Cajuns permitted 39 points to Southern Mississippi in a 15-point loss. That was the most points Southern Mississippi has scored all season against a Division I opponent. That does bode well for Lafayette against the Seminoles' high-caliber offense. |
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11-12-22 | TCU +7.5 v. Texas | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
Texas Christian is ranked fourth in the country in the latest The Associated Press Top 25 poll. Texas is ranked 18th. Yet the Longhorns are solid favorites. Usually it's the oddsmaker who has the correct power rankings, not the Top 25 voters. This time, though, it's the Top 25 poll that is accurate about these teams. TCU is the better team. The Horned Frogs are 9-0, including 6-0 in the Big 12. They just defeated Texas Tech by 10 points. Texas is 6-3 with two of its defeats coming to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, two teams that TCU defeated. Texas lacks TCU's consistency and polish. The Horned Frogs have already beaten four ranked opponents. Only Tennessee has knocked off more with five. The Horned Frogs have dominated the Longhorns, too, going 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS against them since becoming a Big 12 member 10 years ago. They are 4-1 versus the Longhorns in Austin. |
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11-12-22 | Appalachian State v. Marshall UNDER 48 | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
No team has played more Unders this season than Marshall. The Thundering Herd have gone Under in eight of their nine games, including the last six. Marshall gives up 15.6 points, ranks No. 3 in run defense and ninth in total defense. The Thundering Herd, though, has a limited passing attack ranking 110th. So they run the ball a lot, which eats clock. Appalachian State also has a good defense ranking 27th in fewest yards allowed per game and are run-oriented on offense. The Under has cashed in four of the Mountaineers' last five games. |
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11-12-22 | Louisville +7 v. Clemson | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
Louisville hung in against Clemson last season losing, 30-24. The Cardinals are better this season and catch Clemson off a confidence-draining 35-14 loss to Notre Dame. That was the Tigers' worst loss to an unranked foe in 11 years and cost them six spots in the College Football Playoff rankings. That loss occurred at Notre Dame. But the Tigers are just 3-9 ATS in their last dozen home games. Meanwhile, Louisville is playing its finest ball putting together a four-game win streak with two of those victories coming against ranked Wake Forest and James Madison, who was ranked earlier in the season. The Cardinals are surrendering just 14.5 points during their last four games. Talented dual threat QB Malik Cunningham has accounted for 19 touchdowns while throwing only four interceptions. |
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11-12-22 | Temple v. Houston OVER 56 | 36-43 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
Houston scored 63 points against SMU last week - and still lost by 14. There's only one way to look at Houston games and it's certainly not Under. The Over has cashed in eight of the Cougars' nine games this season. The Cougars average 36.8 points and give up an average of 36.2 points. Temple isn't going to be able to slow down Clayton Tune and the rest of Houston's high-caliber attack. The Owls should be able to kick in their fair share of points. Their offense came alive in a 54-28 victory against South Florida last week. Edward Saydee rushed for 265 yards and QB E.J. Warner passed for 344 yards for Temple. |
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11-12-22 | Vanderbilt v. Kentucky UNDER 49.5 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 93 h 46 m | Show | |
It's not a fluke that Kentucky has gone Under in eight of its nine games this season. The Wildcats are run-oriented, go at the slowest pace of any team in the country and have a tremendous defense that ranks 11th in fewest yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense holding opponents to 19.6 points a game. Vanderbilt quarterback AJ Swann is out with a lower body injury. He's the Commodores' best passing quarterback. Vanderbilt is averaging only 12.5 points during its past five games. The Commodores do not have a good defense. However, their best feature is stopping the run. Kentucky figures to stay on the ground a lot especially given the projected weather conditions, which are calling for wind in the 15-22 mph range. |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo +2.5 v. Central Michigan | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
After opening with three straight losses, Buffalo is very much in the bowl picture after going 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games. The Bulls have produced 34 or more points in three of their last four games. Buffalo QB Cole Snyder should have a big game against a Central Michigan secondary that ranks 79th in pass defense. The Chippewas give up 29 points per game, which ranks 87th. Central Michigan has failed to score more than 18 points in four of its last six games. The Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. The Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games. |
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11-08-22 | Ball State v. Toledo -11 | 21-28 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by Ball State going 4-1 in its last five games. The Cardinals have faced not only weak competition during this span, but also caught opponents missing key injured players. When stepping up, the Cardinals have failed to cover the last five times against above .500 opponents. Toledo is 6-3 and several steps up in class for Ball State. The Rockets have tremendous skill position talent. They are averaging 35.9 points, which is a top-25 figure. That average goes up to 45.5 points per game in four home matchups. Ball State doesn't have the offense to keep pace ranking 90th in scoring at 24.8 points per game. The Cardinals are below average on defense, too. |
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11-05-22 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern +4 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 6 m | Show | |
South Alabama has played one of the 10 easiest schedules in the country. That's going to catch up to the Jaguars in this matchup. I wasn't a fan of Clay Helton when he was at USC. But he's done a fine job with Georgia Southern. The Eagles are 5-3 with all three of their losses coming on the road. They are 3-0 SU and ATS at home. One of those Georgia Southern victories was 45-38 against James Madison as a 13-point 'dog. The Eagles produced nearly 600 yards of total offense in that game. Georgia Southern is averaging 36.9 points and ranks 11th in total yards. South Alabama has impressive defensive numbers. But those are skewed because of numerous weak offenses the Jaguars have faced. Besides home field, the Eagles also have another scheduling factor in their favor - they were idle last week. Georgia Southern has a strong history against the Jaguars winning and covering the last four times it hosted them. The Eagles have won seven of their past eight games against the Jaguars. |
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11-05-22 | Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 42.5 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 92 h 40 m | Show | |
Two strong defenses, slow tempo and possible bad weather. Add this up and you have the recipe for an Under. Kentucky gives up 19.9 points a game. Missouri permits just 21.5 points per game. Both teams rank in the top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game. The Under has covered in 21 of the Wildcats' last 29 road games. Missouri has been a huge money-maker for Under bettors going below the total in 10 of its last 11 games. The last five in this series played in Missouri have gone Under, too. There also could be weather issues with heavy wind and a chance of rain. |
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11-05-22 | Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 49.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Weather is going to impact the amount of scoring in this game. Heavy winds, even gusting, are in the forecast. That could force a lot more running plays something the Badgers wouldn't mind. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is Wisconsin's interim head coach after Paul Chryst was fired earlier this season. Maryland's outstanding quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, missed last week's game against Northwestern. He's dealing with a knee injury. Tagovailoa is likely to start, but he could be gimpy and the blowing winds aren't suited to his downfield throwing. |
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11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU -9.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 25 m | Show |
TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game. I don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs. Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games - North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points. Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. I don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home. |
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11-05-22 | Air Force v. Army UNDER 40.5 | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a low total, but not low enough when the matchup is Army versus Air Force in the Commanders' Classic. The Black Knights defeated Air Force, 21-14, last year - and that was one of the higher-scoring matchups. Here are the combined points in this matchup for the last five years: 35 (last year), 17 (2020), 30 (2019), 31 (2018) and 21 (2017). The Under, in fact, has cashed in 10 of the last 11 games in the series. This is what happens in a huge rivalry game between two completely run-oriented teams. Air Force has a tremendous defense this year, too. The Falcons rank ninth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense allowing 16.8 points a game. The Under has won 15 of the last 20 times Air Force has played a non-conference opponent. The game is being played at a neutral site, too, in Arlington, Texas. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is 7-1. That's the best record in the Sun Belt Conference. But the Chanticleers aren't even favored at home here against Appalachian State. Did the oddsmaker make a mistake with a wrong favorite? Nope. Appalachian State is better than Coastal Carolina on both sides of the ball. Coastal Carolina has built its record feasting on easy opponents. This is the first time all season the Chanticleers are underdogs. They were upset by Old Dominion, 49-21, when they last played at home. What does that tell you? The Mountaineers rank in the top-25 in scoring offense and total offense. Senior quarterback Chase Brice has accounted for 25 TD's with four interceptions. The Mountaineers have three good running backs headed by Camerun Peoples. It's a red flag for the Chanticleers that they were gouged for 323 yards and four TD's on the ground by Old Dominion. The Chanticleers are even worse in pass defense ranking 116th. Coastal Carolina has good skill position players, but they aren't as good as Appalachian State's top weapons. The Chanticleers aren't as battle tested either as Appalachian State. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover any of its past four home games.  The oddsmaker has it right. The Mountaineers are the superior team and they will prove it here. |
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10-29-22 | San Diego State +9 v. Fresno State | Top | 28-32 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
Fresno State star QB Jake Haener still could be out. That would mean another start for Logan Fife, who has been picked off six times filling in for Haener. But even if Haener can play, he's going to be rusty having last played Sept. 17. So I disagree with how high the Bulldogs are favored here. This should be a very close game with first place in the Mountain West Conference West Division at stake. Fresno State is 3-4 on the season, which includes a stunning road loss to Connecticut. The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home contests. San Diego State is 26-10-1 (72 percent) versus below .500 opponents. The Aztecs have held three of their last four foes to 14 points or fewer. San Diego State has the superior special teams play, too, with an excellent kicker/punter in Jack Browning. ESPN ranks the Aztecs No. 1 in special teams efficiency. |
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10-29-22 | Michigan State +23 v. Michigan | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
Michigan is a real power this season. The Wolverines have sights set on bigger things such as winning the national championship. Michigan State has more modest goals. This is the Spartans' Super Bowl. Michigan State gets sky high for this in-state, Big Ten rivalry matchup far more than Michigan does. It's not a coincidence the Spartans have covered in 12 of the last 14 meetings, including winning straight-up each of the past two years. The Spartans are a disappointing 3-4, but they regained some lost confidence by defeating Wisconsin in their last game. Michigan State QB Payton Thorne had his most efficient game of the season in that victory. |
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10-29-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Marshall UNDER 54.5 | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show | |
Both from a matchup perspective and trend/angles standpoint the Under seems the right play given this high of a total. Coastal Carolina has gone Under in six of its last seven road games, while the Under has won in seven of Marshall's last eight home games. Marshall ranks in the top-11 in defensive scoring, fewest yards allowed and run defense. Coastal Carolina hasn't seen a defense this good all season. The Chanticleers are not a good defensive team, but they are opportunistic ranking 31st in takeaways. They are facing a feeble Marshall offense that ranks 82nd in scoring averaging 26.6 points and is 109th in passing yards. The tempo is going to be slow, too, which is a huge plus for the Under. |
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10-29-22 | Rutgers v. Minnesota UNDER 41 | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
Minnesota is run-oriented with a weak passing game. Rutgers ranks sixth in the nation in run defense and eighth in total defense. The Scarlet Knights permit just 88 yards rushing per game and 3.0 per rush attempt. The Gophers may not even have their starting QB, Tanner Morgan. He's questionable with a concussion. The Gophers are strong defensively giving up the 10th-fewest points in the country at 16.4. Rutgers has cleared the 17-point barrier only once in its last five games. The Scarlet Knights rank 113th in yards per game. Not surprisingly neither team plays at a fast tempo. In fact, they are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. So the clock will keep moving. |
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10-29-22 | Rutgers +14.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Greg Schiano has done an outstanding job with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a winning record through seven games for the first time in eight years and are a bowl contender. The Scarlet Knights have been at their point spread-best on the road going 31-14, including 10-3-1 during their last 14 away games. Minnesota has gotten progressively worse after a 4-0 start. The Gophers have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing all three by 10 or more points. The problem for Minnesota is scoring. The Gophers are averaging fewer than 14 points during their last three games. Tanner Morgan is one of the worst QB's in the Big Ten and he's questionable with a concussion. The Gophers rely on a strong ground attack headed by Mohamed Ibrahim. Rutgers, however, ranks sixth against the run and eighth in defensive total yards. The Scarlet Knights also are tough on special teams, too, leading the Big Ten in blocked kicks with four. |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Very tough scheduling spot for East Carolina here. The Pirates just upset American Athletic Conference rival Central Florida this past Saturday - their best win of the season - and now have to travel cross-country going into high altitude to Provo, Utah on a short week to take on BYU in a non-conference game. The Pirates are going to encounter an angry BYU squad that has lost three in a row, falling to Liberty, Arkansas and Notre Dame after a 4-1 start. This is a huge game for the independent Cougars, who would hurt their bowl opportunities with a loss here. East Carolina has a much bigger matchup in its next game facing Cincinnati, who is unbeaten in the AAC. BYU and East Carolina share a common opponent, South Florida. The Cougars smashed the Bulls, 50-21. BYU led 38-0 in the second quarter while outgaining South Florida, 575-279. East Carolina beat South Florida, 48-28, at neutral site Boca Raton due Hurricane Ian and gave up 455 yards to the Bulls. |
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10-27-22 | UL-Lafayette -115 v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-39 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
These are two of the best defensive teams in the Sun Belt Conference. I give Louisiana Lafayette a slight edge on defense and a strong checkmark at quarterback. The Ragin' Cajuns also get their best runner, Chris Smith, back after he missed the last two games. Smith averages 5.7 yards a carry after averaging 5.6 the past two seasons. The Ragin' Cajuns have gotten turned around after a three-game losing streak that followed opening 2-0. They upset Marshall, 23-13, on the road two weeks ago and then rolled past Arkansas State, 38-18. Chandler Fields began the season as Lafayette's starting quarterback. He's back from injury, but Ben Woolridge has played so well that he remains the starter. Woolridge has completed 62.8 percent of his passes for 986 yards with an impressive 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's played exceptionally well the last two weeks. The difference in quarterbacks is the Ragin' Cajuns' big edge. Southern Mississippi also lost its starting quarterback, Ty Keyes. Zach Wilcke replaced him and hasn't been impressive. Only once in six games has he passed for more than 200 yards. He also has a 7-to-8 touchdown to interception ratio and has been sacked 12 times. The Golden Eagles rank 13th out of 14 Sun Belt teams in yards per play. Lafayette also has the better defensive numbers ranking 21st in the nation in scoring defense and 33rd in total defense. Southern Miss ranks 35th in scoring defense and 36th in total defense. |
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10-22-22 | Purdue v. Wisconsin -128 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
The Badgers are a very dangerous 3-4 team. Look for Wisconsin to take its frustrations out at home on Purdue, a team they have beaten 15 straight times going 12-3 ATS. All but three of those 15 wins have been by 17 points or more. The Badgers have shown improvement under new coach Jim Leonhard. They've outgained opponents by nearly one yard per play. Purdue, on the other hand, has outgained its opponents by just 0.3 yards per play. The Boilermakers have played a much easier schedule than Wisconsin in building a 5-2 record. |
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10-22-22 | Marshall v. James Madison UNDER 54.5 | Top | 26-12 | Win | 100 | 126 h 51 m | Show |
The oddsmaker still must think Randy Moss is playing for Marshall. The Thundering Herd aren't good offensively. They're averaging 10 points during their last two Sun Belt Conference games. That was against Troy and Louisiana Lafayette, with one touchdown against Lafayette coming in garbage time. Marshall is heavily run-oriented. James Madison happens to have the top run defense in the nation. The oddsmaker might have been influenced by James Madison losing, 45-38, to Georgia Southern this past Saturday. Marshall is a much better defensive team and is nearly as up-tempo as Georgia Southern. The Thundering Herd rank 17th in scoring defense giving up 17.3 points a game. They are 13th in total defense holding foes to 290.3 yards per game. The Dukes do not play at a fast tempo especially when in the lead, which should be the case since they are around two-touchdown favorites. (Note: The total has come down since I first released the play. This has hurt the line value, but the handicap still holds as I don't see these teams reaching 50 points.) |
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10-22-22 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio OVER 64.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois has gone Over in six of its seven games this season. The Huskies' offense has taken off averaging 36.3 points in their last three games. Rocky Lombardi returned last week for the Huskies after being out. That's just another plus because he's one of the best QB's in the MAC. He faces an Ohio defense that ranks second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed per play. The Bobcats surrender an average of 36.9 points a game. This isn't just going to be one-way scoring. Ohio will put up a lot of points on Northern Illinois behind Kurtis Rourke, who could be the top QB in the MAC. He's completed 70 percent of his throws and has accounted for 17 TD's in seven games. The Bobcats rank 13th in the country in passing yards. The Huskies rank 116th in scoring defense allowing 34.3 points and also rank 116th in pass defense. They are not going to be able to slow down Rourke. The Over has cashed in each of Ohio's last five home games. |
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10-22-22 | Cincinnati -3 v. SMU | 29-27 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
I see a class difference here much bigger than the point spread. Cincinnati has won the past two AAC titles. The Bearcats have won five in a row and are fresh after being idle last week. SMU has failed to cover in its last five games. The Mustangs surrender nearly 30 points a game and rank 122nd in run defense. Cincinnati averages 38.2 points a game. SMU's strength is its passing attack. The Bearcats have a top-20 pass defense. Cincinnati gives up 4.3 yards per play compared to the Mustangs allowing 6.2 yards per play. The Bearcats have defeated the Mustangs by 29 points and 34 points during the last two seasons. The gap isn't that large this season, but it's still substantial enough for the Bearcats to easily cover the spread. |
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10-22-22 | Houston v. Navy OVER 50 | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
There have been some wild games in the American Athletic Conference. Houston and Navy both were involved in two of them last week. The Cougars came back from a 26-7 fourth quarter deficit to nip Memphis, 33-32, while Navy scored 20 fourth-quarter points while gaining 510 yards in a 40-34 loss to SMU. The Cougars are within one point of having every one of their games go Over. They average 31.3 points and give up 33.7 points. All six of Houston's opponents have scored a minimum of 27 points against the Cougars. Houston QB Clayton Tune gets to face a Navy pass defense that ranks 111th. The Midshipmen have scored a combined 87 points in their last two games against Tulsa and SMU. They are the fifth-best rushing team in the nation. Yet the marketplace has been on the Under. The total has been knocked down enough where it has now become an excellent value play on the Over. |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Seems hard to believe after suffering three blowout losses, but Georgia Tech can put itself into bowl consideration. The Yellow Jackets have turned their season around after firing Geoff Collins. They are 2-0 since Brent Key was named interim coach, upsetting Pittsburgh as a 21 1/2-point road 'dog and Duke as a 3 1/2-point home dog. It's not a coincidence. Key has fixed special teams issues and changed morale. The Yellow Jackets have their confidence up after winning consecutive games for the first time since 2018 when Paul Johnson was coach. I expect Georgia Tech to keep its momentum hosting Virginia, which is the only winless team in the ACC having lost all three of its conference games. The Cavaliers are struggling under first-year head coach Tony Elliott. The Cavaliers haven't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent. Brennan Armstrong is a decent QB, but he doesn't have much skill position help and he's playing behind a rebuilt offensive line. "We are still a team that needs a lot of work fundamentally,'' Elliott was quoted as saying. That kind of quote is not very confidence-inspiring especially coming six games into Virginia's season. |
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10-15-22 | San Jose State v. Fresno State +8 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
Man a lot can change in a year. Fresno State rolled past San Jose State, 40-9, as a 7-point road favorite last season. Now the Bulldogs find themselves more than a touchdown underdog at home to the Spartans. That's what a four-game losing streak can do to a team. The Bulldogs lost their outstanding QB Jake Haener in their third game against USC. The following week the Bulldogs had to travel East and were stunned by Connecticut. That was a bad loss. But Fresno State still has plenty of talent. The Bulldogs should play better here at home. They have been on the road for their last three games. The season has gone well for 4-1 San Jose State. The Spartans have covered four in a row. That's made the Spartans overpriced here, though, in my view. |
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10-15-22 | Rice v. Florida Atlantic OVER 55.5 | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 56 m | Show | |
A decent offense and bad defense. That's Rice and its formula for going Over in 14 of its last 17 games, including all five this season. I see another Over in the Owls' matchup against Florida Atlantic. Both teams should be fresh with a few tricks up their sleeves having each enjoyed a bye last week. Rice gives up 31 points a game. The Owls are averaging 35 points, however, during their last four games. Florida Atlantic also averages 31 points per game. Florida Atlantic has surrendered at least 40 points against three of its last four Division I opponents. Florida Atlantic is off a bad 45-28 loss to North Texas State. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 10 m | Show | |
Iowa State plays outstanding defense and catches Texas in a sandwich spot. The Longhorns just ended a four-game losing streak to Oklahoma in dominating fashion winning, 49-0. Texas faces unbeaten Oklahoma State next week. Iowa State has a bye next week. So the Cyclones should be going all out. The Cyclones give up the eighth-fewest points in the nation at 13.7. They rank 11th in total defense holding foes to 227.5 yards per game. The Cyclones have been in every game. They are 3-3 with their three defeats coming by an average of 3.6 points. Two of their losses occurred to ranked teams. Look for them to hang in against Texas. |
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10-15-22 | Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 52.5 | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 31 m | Show |
I was surprised to see this total open this high. Think defense rather than offense in this matchup.  Penn State allows less than 15 points a game. The Nittany Lions have the seventh best run defense in the country.  Michigan gives up 11.3 points a game. The Wolverines surrender the fifth-fewest yards per game and are No. 6 in run defense. Michigan's defensive line holds a major edge on Penn State's offensive line.  These are typical Big Ten teams who rely on the run. Neither of these teams plays fast either. The Wolverines are one of the slowest tempo teams in the nation. |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina v. Kentucky OVER 49 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 25 m | Show | |
South Carolina is giving up an average of 46 points a game during its two SEC matchups, which were against Georgia and Arkansas. The Gamecocks have played easy opponents during their past two games. Now they go back into SEC competition. Chris Rodriguez is an elite running back for Kentucky. He's back in the lineup and should do well against a South Carolina run defense that ranks 106th. Kentucky's star QB Will Levis is fine, too, after hurting his hand last week. South Carolina lacks the necessary pass rush to both Levis. The Gamecocks are averaging 35.6 points per game. They have a pro prospect at QB in Spencer Rattler. He leads a balanced attack. South Carolina has scored 56 and 50 points, respectively, during its last two games going against Charlotte and South Carolina State. Kentucky is much better on defense than those two teams. However, the Wildcats only have four takeaways. So I see South Carolina holding up its end in getting this total Over. |
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10-08-22 | Clemson v. Boston College +20.5 | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 54 m | Show | |
Clemson may not be as up as it should be for 1-3 Boston College. The Tigers won a wild double overtime victory against Wake Forest, 51-45, two weeks ago on the road and then took care of North Carolina State at home, 30-20, last week. The Tigers are at Florida State next week. So this looms as a flat spot for them. Boston College and its heralded but disappointing QB, Phil Jurkovec, finally showed something last week upsetting Louisville, 34-33, last week as a 13 1/2-point 'dog. The Eagles produced 454 yards of offense. Boston College has a tremendous history of covering games in October going 16-5 ATS (76%) the past 21 times. Clemson had a tough time at home against Boston College the past two years winning, 19-13, as a 15-point favorite last season and prevailing, 34-28, as a 24-point favorite two years ago. |
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10-08-22 | James Madison v. Arkansas State OVER 55 | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
James Madison has been most impressive in its transition from FCS to FBS this season going 4-0 SU and ATS. The Dukes are averaging 44.8 points, which ranks eighth in the nation. Arkansas State can score, too, especially at home scoring 58 and 45 points, respectively, this season. I see a shootout here similar to what the Red Wolves were involved in three weeks ago when they lost, 44-32, to Memphis. Both teams have excellent quarterbacks. Todd Centeio is a dual threat for James Madison. He's accounted for 13 TD's with 913 yards passing and another 252 yards rushing. Arkansas State QB James Blackman leads an attack that averages 34.6 points. |
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10-08-22 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 54.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
Air Force leads the nation in rushing averaging 379 yards. Utah State can't stop the run. The Aggies allow 5.3 yards per run, which ranks 117th. They are giving up 36.4 points per game. Utah State's new QB, Cooper Legas, made his first start last week against BYU. He threw a pair of TD passes and the Aggies scored 26 points. Air Force has played against weak passing teams. The Aggies play up-tempo. This combination should produce points for Utah State. |
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10-08-22 | Missouri v. Florida UNDER 54.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a big revenge spot for Florida after it lost to Missouri, 24-23, on the road last year. That was the fifth straight time in this series the Under covered. I see another Under in this matchup. Missouri's defense was impressive in holding Georgia to 26 points last week. The Tigers could be looking to stay on the ground more knowing they may be without their top wide receiver, Dominic Lovett. Florida has gone Under in seven of its last 10 home games. The Gators' defensive statistics are skewed because they've played Utah, Kentucky and Tennessee. |
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10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Nevada is 2-3. But the Wolf Pack aren't nearly as bad as Colorado State, which is 0-4 and has been outscored by 121 points. This is going to be an intense game with Nevada drawing its biggest home crowd of the season. The reason being that Colorado State's head coach is Jay Norvell. He's in his first year after coaching Nevada the previous five seasons. Many of Nevada's players were recruited by Norvell, who left in December and took with him to Colorado State 11 Wolf Pack players, five recruits and several assistant coaches. So far it has been a disaster for the Rams. They rank last in total offense and are in the bottom-10 in numerous other offensive categories, including rushing, third-down conversion rate, red zone offense, scoring defense and several special teams categories. The Rams are in the argument for worst team in the country. Yes, the Rams played Michigan and Washington State. But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State by 15 points and fell to FCS Sacramento State by 31 points. |
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10-01-22 | UL-Monroe v. Arkansas State -7 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show | |
Louisiana-Monroe has played two road games this season. The Warhawks lost by 42 points to Texas and fell to Alabama by 56 points in those away matchups. Arkansas State certainly isn't the caliber of the Longhorns and Crimson Tide. But the Red Wolves are more than a touchdown better than Monroe at home. The Red Wolves have covered the past 12 times against the Warhawks. The Warhawks rank 116th in scoring averaging 18.3 points. They are 112th defensively giving up 34.8 points. Yet Monroe could actually be in a letdown spot after upsetting UW-Lafayette, 21-17, at home last Saturday as 9 1/2-point 'dogs. Arkansas State has a huge quarterback edge with James Blackman. The Red Wolves rolled over Grambling, 58-3, at home opening week. They've been on the road for their next three games. Those were all losses. But the Red Wolves had tough competition playing Ohio State, Memphis and Old Dominion. Now they finally get to play at home again. The Warkhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. Look for Arkansas State to make it 13 straight covers against Monroe. |
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10-01-22 | Iowa State v. Kansas +3 | 11-14 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas made a great coaching hire with Lance Leipold last year. That's becoming even more clear this season as Leipold has the Jayhawks at 4-0 and close to Top-25 status. The Jayhawks have been doing it with offense averaging 47 points behind QB Jalon Daniels. Iowa State is the opposite. The 3-1 Cyclones rely on a stingy defense that ranks 14th in total defense and 17th in scoring defense. This is a tough spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones had their Big 12 home conference victory streak snapped at 11 losing to Baylor, 31-24, last Saturday. Now the Cyclones have to travel to Kansas where the Jayhawks are on the verge of a national breakthrough. |
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10-01-22 | East Carolina -8.5 v. South Florida | Top | 48-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
This matchup is below-the-radar. Because if it wasn't, East Carolina would be a much larger favorite. South Florida lost its home field advantage when the game was moved from Orlando to Boca Raton because of Hurricane Ian. The Bulls were 2-10 last season. They are terrible again this season going 0-3 against Division I teams. The Bulls were slaughtered, 41-3, by Louisville last week. They were out-gained by 384 yards in that game. East Carolina is 2-2, but has outgained its opponent in every game. The Pirates nearly upset North Carolina State as a 12-point 'dog, losing 21-20 on a missed extra point. The Pirates have covered nine of their last 12 games. They have a balanced attack and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the American Athletic Conference. The Pirates beat South Florida, 29-14, last season. Expect the same this time around, too. |
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10-01-22 | Georgia State v. Army OVER 53 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 9 m | Show | |
Both teams should enjoy great success on the ground given the quality of their ground attacks and vulnerability of the opponent's rush defense. Georgia State plays fast. The Panthers have the shortest time of possession of any team in the country. The Panthers rank 37th in rushing. Army ranks 114th in run defense. The Over has cashed in eight of Georgia State's last 11 non-conference games. The Panthers are giving up 38.3 points pre game. They rank 119th in total defense. Army is the No. 3 rushing team in the country. Just two weeks ago, Georgia State surrendered 42 points to Charlotte. The 49ers average 19.5 points in their four other games. That certainly bodes well for Army. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa +10.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 6 m | Show | |
The Hawkeyes have had this game circled ever since Michigan embarrassed them, 42-3, in the Big 10 Championship Game last December. Michigan is 4-0. But the Wolverines have played one of the easiest schedules in the country - Colorado State, Hawaii, Connecticut and Maryland. They played all those teams at home, too. The Wolverines haven't seen a defense anywhere near this elite caliber. Iowa gives up the fewest points per game at 5.8 and the fifth fewest yards per game. The Hawkeyes have a tremendous record of upsetting top-five ranked teams going 5-1 during the past six instances. |
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09-30-22 | UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 64 | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
Texas San Antonio has gone Over in all four of its games this season. It's not a fluke. The Roadrunners average 35 points while giving up 37. They are 27th in total offense and 112th in total defense. They have gone Over in each of their last seven road contests.  Middle Tennessee State has gone Over in its last two games. The Blue Raiders average nearly 34 points per game, but have a below average defense that San Antonio's excellent QB, Frank Harris, should have little trouble exploiting.Â
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09-24-22 | USC -5.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
After six years of avoiding Southern Cal because Clay Helton was its coach, it's safe again to back the Trojans. Their new coach, offensive guru Lincoln Riley, has turned around the Trojans. Riley brought QB Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Williams is one of the top QB's in the country. He's thrown for 874 yards and eight TD's this season for the 3-0 Trojans. Williams' top target is Jordan Addison, one of the best wide receivers in the nation. Oregon State also is 3-0. The Beavers are getting strong QB play, too, from Chase Nolan. He ranks 13th in passer ratings. But there's a class and athlete difference between these two schools. Helton couldn't take advantage of that. The Beavers upset USC as a double-digit road 'dog last season. That was Oregon State's first win in Los Angeles in 61 years. So the Trojans also have revenge motivation to go with an edge in athleticism along with an elite coach and quarterback. The Trojans have taken much better care of the ball under Riley, not nearly as careless. They are plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways. That's the best ratio in the nation. USC has yet to turn the ball over. |
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09-24-22 | Rice v. Houston OVER 51 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 47 h 30 m | Show | |
This is the lowest total Houston has had this season - and it's not justified. Rice has bounced back from a 66-14 opening loss to USC, to roll past McNeese State, 52-10, and then upset Louisiana Lafayette, 33-21, last week. That marked the seventh straight time the Owls have gone above the total. TJ McMahon has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for Rice for 642 yards and seven TD's through these first three games. Houston ranks 118th in total defense. The Cougars have this low defensive ranking despite not having faced a top-30 offense. The 1-2 Cougars are frustrated having lost to Texas Tech in double overtime and then getting upset by Kansas, 48-30, during their past two games. The Cougars have a high-powered attack led by QB Clayton Tune, who has completed close to 63 percent of his throws for 744 yards and five TD's. He has one of the better receivers in the country, Nathaniel Dell. Houston scored 44 points against Rice last season. The Over has cashed in five of Houston's last six games. |
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09-24-22 | Tulsa v. Ole Miss UNDER 65.5 | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show | |
The competition hasn't been good. Still, Mississippi has held its first three opponents to an average of 4.3 points after shutting out Georgia Tech last week. So I find this total too high. Tulsa is No. 1 in the country in passing with Davis Brin. But the Golden Hurricane are going against an SEC defense that is playing great. The Rebels are averaging more than four sacks a game. Tulsa has given up 10 sacks in three games against inferior competition. Mississippi has run the ball nearly 65 percent of the time. The Rebels will look to pound the ball against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have had trouble stopping the run. But running the ball is good for the Under especially with a total in this high range. The combination of being run-oriented and playing outstanding defense has resulted in Ole Miss going Under in 10 of its last 11 games. |
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09-24-22 | Toledo v. San Diego State +3 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
San Diego State went 12-2 last season. The Aztecs lost some key players, but they shouldn't be a home underdog to Toledo. The Rockets are 2-1, but look at who they've played. Toledo's victories have been against Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10. Those victories padded their team statistics. When Toledo stepped way up in class, the Rockets were clobbered, 77-21, at Ohio State. The Aztecs are 1-2 but have played stronger competition. Their losses were to Pac-12 teams, Arizona and powerful Utah. |
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09-24-22 | North Texas v. Memphis OVER 68.5 | Top | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 86 h 29 m | Show |
This total may look high on the surface, but it's not when these two teams are involved. There were 85 and 86 points scored in North Texas' last two games. There were 76 points produced in Memphis' last game. Both teams are well above average offensively and terrible defensively. Each also ranks in the top 25 in fastest tempo. That's a recipe for Over. North Texas ranks 126th defensively in yards giving up 502.8 per game. The Mean Green allow 36.5 points a game, which rates 115th. Memphis QB Seth Hennigan and his bevy of weapons can easily exploit that. The Tigers are 99th in scoring defense permitting 31.3 points a game. They rank 111th in pass defense. North Texas ranks 33rd in offensive yards per game. |
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09-17-22 | Arkansas State v. Memphis OVER 62 | 32-44 | Win | 100 | 128 h 30 m | Show | |
This game is all about offense. Neither team has much defensively. There were a whopping 105 points scored in last year's game. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State +17 v. Washington State | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a great situational play to fade Washington State. The Cougars are coming off a monster road upset of Wisconsin. Up next for the Cougars is a much bigger game, their Pac-12 opener at home against Oregon. You couldn't fault the Cougars if they overlook and take for granted Colorado State. The Rams have looked terrible in their two games, getting blown out by Michigan and getting upset at home by Middle Tennessee State. Improvement should be forthcoming for the Rams under new coach Jay Norvell. They have a talented freshman QB, Clay Millen, and are better than they have looked. Colorado State was tabbed to finish in the top-five in the Mountain West Conference before the season began. So there is talent there. Washington State is not some great team just because it stunned Wisconsin. The Cougars struggled at home to get past Idaho, 24-17, the week before playing Wisconsin as a four-touchdown favorite. They were projected to be a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 team. The Cougars have covered only two of their last nine non-conference games even with that victory against the Badgers. |
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09-17-22 | Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64 | 42-0 | Win | 100 | 65 h 18 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech isn't explosive enough to trade points with Mississippi ranking 124th in passing. The Yellow Jackets are back to trying to control the ball via their ground game. Georgia Tech has played decent run defense, though, and the Rebels apparently aren't fully sold yet on USC transfer QB Jaxson Dart. So I'm expecting more running plays than perceived, which is good for an Under with a total in this high range. Mississippi does have a pair of good running backs in Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans. The strength of Georgia Tech, though, is a defensive line that in two games versus Clemson and Western Carolina has recorded seven sacks and 15 tackles for losses. Note that Georgia Tech plays its home games on grass. Mississippi is a turf team. The Rebels have gone Under eight of the last nine times when playing on grass. |
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09-17-22 | BYU v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
There are two ways of looking at Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of Oregon in Atlanta two weeks ago. Either the defending national champion and top-ranked Bulldogs are that good, or Oregon isn't nearly as dangerous as cracked up to be. I go with the first. Look for the Ducks to get redemption on national TV in the confines of Autzen Stadium where they have won 20 straight and 29 consecutive non-conference games. BYU is ranked 12th in the nation following its exciting 26-20 overtime home win against Baylor last Saturday. But the Cougars are nowhere near the level of Georgia. They also are likely to be without their two best wide receivers again, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua. Oregon is tough in the trenches - one of the few schools to return all five of its starting offensive linemen - and has physical linebackers. BYU averaged only 2.4 yards rushing against Baylor. But the Ducks' major strengths are speed and skill position depth. These are major edges against BYU and will prove the difference. Oregon got some of its confidence back rolling past Eastern Washington - a decent FCS school - 70-14, covering easily as 27-point home 'dogs last week. Oregon QB Bo Nix always has been better at home where he has a 28-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to just 12-to-12 on the road. Nix should have ample time to spot his speedy downfield targets given the experience of his offensive line. |
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09-17-22 | Old Dominion v. Virginia UNDER 52.5 | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 97 h 52 m | Show | |
There's a false perception surrounding Virginia. Just because the Cavaliers have a decent QB, Brennan Armstrong, doesn't mean they have a good offense. The Cavaliers are averaging 18.5 points during their first two games. They have a new offensive philosophy of grinding the ball on the ground instead of letting Armstrong make plays through the air. Some of this strategy is caused by Virginia lacking playmakers around Armstrong and having a very bad offensive line. Old Dominion is averaging 20.5 points in its first two games. The Monarchs got thrown a curve when Dave Patenaude, their offensive coordinator last season, resigned just weeks before the start of the season. The Monarchs don't make many big plays on offense. Their run defense, though, is decent. Old Dominion held opposing teams to 134.2 rushing yards per game while giving up 12 rushing TD's last year. The Under has cashed in seven of Virginia's last eight home games. The Under also has cashed seven of the past 10 times when Old Dominion has met a non-conference foe. |
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09-10-22 | New Mexico State v. UTEP UNDER 47.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a terrible matchup. But it sets up a winning play on the Under. New Mexico State has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Aggies have put up 12 points total against Nevada-Reno and Minnesota. They had less than 100 yards total offense against the Gophers. UTEP hasn't broken the 25-point barrier in eight of its last nine games. The Miners have scored 13 points in each of their two games against North Texas and Oklahoma. New Mexico State's coach Jerry Kill is well known for his slow pace. He completely plays for field position. UTEP's defensive strength is run defense. The Miners also prefer to play slow. This total is low, but not low enough. |
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09-10-22 | Florida International v. Texas State OVER 55 | Top | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 26 m | Show |
(Editor's note: Stephen Nover put this total out shortly after the game came on the board. He made it his Non-Conference Total of the Year based on tremendous line value and a strong handicap. Within 24 hours, though, the total had been bet so far up that Stephen took the game down because the line value had been lost. However, the handicap still holds.) Two bad defenses against fast-paced offenses. That's a winning combination for an Over in this matchup between Florida International and Texas State. How bad is Florida International? The Panthers had to go overtime to nip Bryant, a bad FCS program, 38-37. Bryant had eight plays of at least 20 yards against the Panthers. The Panthers are in total rebuild mode under new coach Mike MacIntyre. A key takeaway from that game was the Panthers taking less than 20 seconds between running plays. That's a tremendously fast pace. Texas State is up-tempo, too. The Bobcats found themselves a good QB in Layne Hatcher, who was the Freshman of the Year in the Sun Belt Conference at Arkansas State before transferring to Texas State. The Bobcats' problem is once again defense. They surrendered 38 points to Nevada last week. The Wolf Pack lost all of their skill position stars from last season and managed only 23 points against New Mexico State in their first game. |
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09-10-22 | Virginia v. Illinois UNDER 58 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 73 h 51 m | Show | |
Virginia is going to find it much tougher going against Illinois after opening with an easy win against Richmond. The Illini have a tough defense especially against the run. Neither Wyoming nor Indiana could effectively run on the Illini. The Illini are a ground-and-pound team. They have an excellent running back in Chase Brown. But I'm not nearly so enamored of their QB, Tommy Devito. Virginia has a much better QB in Brennan Armstrong. However, the Cavaliers lost each of their five starting offensive linemen from last season. So an early season road game - their first of the year - against a stout Illinois front four is not ideal. |
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09-10-22 | South Alabama v. Central Michigan -4.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Don't be fooled by the Week 1 outcomes when accessing these two teams in this matchup. South Alabama rolled past Nicholls State, an FCS school, 48-7, last week while Central Michigan lost 58-44 to Oklahoma State. The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt Conference team. They have failed to cover in their last six road games. Central Michigan covered against Oklahoma State, who is ranked 11th in the country. Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson completed 36 of 49 passes for 424 yards and four TD's with no interceptions against the Cowboys. The Chippewas came on strong last season winning seven of their last nine games, including upsetting Washington State in a bowl game. They are on a 6-0 covering run. So give me a solid MAC team against this Sun Belt foe. |
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09-10-22 | Duke v. Northwestern UNDER 57.5 | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
The David Cutcliffe era is finished at Duke. It's replaced by defensive-minded Mike Elko. The Blue Devils looked sharp defensively in Elko's head coaching debut shutting out Temple, 30-0, last week. Duke held the Owls to 179 total yards and 12 first downs. Another takeaway from that game was the Blue Devils' conservative offensive style scoring just six points in the second half after building a 24-0 halftime lead. Now the Blue Devils meet a physical Big Ten defense in Northwestern. The Wildcats have had extra time to prepare having last played in Dublin, Ireland on Aug. 27, beating Nebraska, 31-28, in that game. Duke hosted Northwestern last year and won, 30-23. Now it's Northwestern's turn to host. The Wildcats are a strong Under team at home where the low side has cashed 72 percent of the time during their last 75 home games. I'm down on Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski and the rest of the Wildcats' skill position players rating them among the worst in the Big Ten. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville v. Central Florida -5.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Louisville and its quarterback, Malik Cunningham, are not who we thought they would be. The Cardinals are much worse than imagined and Cunningham, hindered by a bad offensive line and devoid of talented wide receivers, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath with his Louisville predecessor, Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals were buried, 31-7, by underdog Syracuse in their opener last Saturday. The Orange have an excellent running back, but little else offensively. Yet they produced 449 yards of offense against Louisville with Orange QB Garrett Shrader racking up 332 yards of offense with his arm and legs. The Cardinals gave up an average of more than 400 yards per game last season and don't appear improved. Now Louisville has to go back on the road to face a better QB in Central Florida's John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Plumlee rolled up 407 yards of offense in leading the Knights to a 56-10 win against South Carolina State in their opener eight days ago. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games. Central Florida's defensive strength is its secondary. So I don't see the overrated Cunningham faring much better while the Knights behind Plumlee can take advantage of the Cardinals' porous defense. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
This is far more of a mismatch than this point spread indicates. Louisville has defeated Syracuse the past three times by an average of 30 points, including out-scoring the Orange, 71-3, during the last two meetings. Louisville owns a monster edge at QB with Malik Cunningham, the top rushing QB in the ACC. Cunningham is protected by a very underrated offensive line. Syracuse is forced to be one-dimensional on the ground with Sean Tucker because its QB, Garret Shrader, is terrible. Shrader is very inaccurate and he's not helped by a weak group of receivers. Tucker is excellent, but the Cardinals will be stacking the line against him. The Orange haven't been able to turn the corner under Dino Babers with just 11 victories during the past three years. |
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09-03-22 | Houston v. UTSA OVER 61.5 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
These are two-high scoring teams with plenty of returning firepower. Houston averaged nearly 36 points a game last season. Back for the Cougars are QB Clayton Tune, who completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,544 yards and threw 30 TD's, and his leading receiver, Nathaniel Dell. Texas San Antonio averaged 36.9 points last season and return QB Frank Harris, who completed 66.1 percent of his throws for 3,177 yards with 27 TD passes. He also rushed for 566 yards and had six TD's on the ground. He faces a Cougars secondary that lost their two best cornerbacks. The Roadrunners also have back seven other offensive starters, including their top four receivers and four offensive linemen. Their losses were on defense where only five starters are back. |
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09-03-22 | Oregon v. Georgia UNDER 54.5 | 3-49 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
Yes Georgia lost a ton of talent from its defense. That defense gave up a modern-day record 6.9 points per game. The Bulldogs, though, just reload. Don't kid yourself, Georgia's defense still is dominant. Dan Lanning was Georgia's co-defensive coordinator the past three years. Now he happens to be the head coach of Oregon. So he knows the Bulldogs well. Oregon has some outstanding defensive talent, too. Neither team's quarterback is dynamic. Georgia's Stetson Bennett is steady rather than spectacular while Oregon QB Bo Nix did nothing as a three-year starter at Auburn. The Bulldogs are familiar with Nix, too. The Ducks are learning a new offense and Georgia plays at a slow tempo. These are two more pluses for the Under. |
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09-02-22 | Illinois +1.5 v. Indiana | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Illinois plus 1 1/2 at Indiana  The Illini have star running back Chase Brown and a better defense than Indiana. They also have the advantage of having played a game, looking impressive in a 38-6 victory against Wyoming last Saturday. Indiana was 2-10 last season. That included an 0-9 Big Ten season in which the Hoosiers lost by an average of 24.6 points.  So I believe the wrong team is favored here.  Illinois held Wyoming to six points on 212 total yards. Cowboys QB Andrew Peasley was 5-of-20 for 30 passing yards. Indiana has new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers didn't play last week and didn't even hold a spring game. They haven't even announced who their starting QB will be trying to replace Michael Penix Jr., who transferred to Washington.  The Hoosiers are emphasizing a spread offense since they can't run the ball very well unlike Illinois, who rushed for 260 yards against Wyoming with Brown gaining 151 yards on the ground on 19 carries. Wyoming is bad, but so is Indiana. The Illini's strength is a defense that ranked in the top-30 in giving up the fewest points per game at 21.9. Illinois only permitted four passing TD's in Big Ten games and return three/fourths of its secondary. Â
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09-01-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Missouri OVER 61.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
An up-tempo, fast-pace style featuring exciting playmakers and vulnerable defenses should result in more than enough points to get this Over the total. Let's begin with Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are going to play faster under new coach Sonny Cumbie, who loves to pass. The Bulldogs should score their share of points against a vulnerable Missouri defense that has plenty of questions in its secondary. Louisiana Tech's offensive strengths is its passing attack and a much improved offensive line. Brady Cook won Missouri's starting QB position. He's well versed in the Tigers' attack and has some outstanding wide receiving weapons. The Tigers shouldn't encounter much resistance from a weak Louisiana Tech defense that ranked 106th in total defense and 114th in scoring defense giving up 34 points per game last year. |
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08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State UNDER 51 | Top | 23-12 | Win | 100 | 174 h 37 m | Show |
Jerry Kill is New Mexico State's new head coach. We know Kill's style - run the ball, take time off the clock and play for field position. Kill inherits an inexperienced offense full of new starters. Nevada's new coach, Ken Wilson, holds the same cards with his offense - just about all new players. The Wolf Pack lost all of their talented skill position players from last year. Wilson is more run-oriented, too, than the man he replaced, Jay Norvell. Wilson also is dealing with an inexperienced offensive line. New Mexico State returns eight defensive starters. The Aggies have decent linebackers. Given the new makeup of these teams with run-oriented coaches, I see fewer points being produced than the oddsmaker envisioned. |
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08-27-22 | Charlotte v. Florida Atlantic OVER 59.5 | 13-43 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
Charlotte and Florida Atlantic are a pair of middle-of-the-road Conference USA teams whose offenses should be ahead of their defenses for this opener. Charlotte has one of the better QB's in the conference, Chris Reynolds. He's one of eight returning offensive starters for the 49ers. Reynolds is the school's all-time passing leader with 7,726 yards. He set school records with 2,684 passing yards and 26 TD throws last season. Florida Atlantic is breaking in new cornerbacks and has an unproven pass rush. The Owls scored 38 points on Charlotte in last year's game. They have a dual threat QB in N'Kosi Perry. The Owls have back their two top receivers, LaJohntay Wester and Je'Quan Burton. Johnny Ford gives Florida Atlantic the best running back on the field. |
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08-27-22 | Wyoming v. Illinois -10 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show | |
Illinois' defense showed great improvement last year holding opponents to 21.9 points per game after giving up 34.9 points a game in 2020. The Illini ranked 31st in scoring defense - down from 97th of two seasons ago - while holding nine of their 12 opponents below their season scoring average. Look for the Illini to shut down Wyoming, which was hammered with skill position players transferring. The list of lost players includes their two top QB's along with wide receivers Isaiah Neyor and Xazavian Valladay. The point spread key is if Illinois has enough offense to cover a double-digit point spread. I believe they do. The ground game is there with Chase Brown, the best skill position player on either side and one of the better running backs in the Big Ten. The Illini also upgraded their passing attack with Tommy DeVito, formerly of Syracuse. DeVito isn't a star, but he's more of a downfield threat than what the Illini had. He can effectively pick his spots against a Cowboys secondary that lost all four of their starters. Wyoming hasn't defeated a Power Five program on the road in 17 years. Don't look for that streak to end here. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 52.5 | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
This total has gone up four points from when the teams met in last month's SEC title game. That's because Alabama blasted Georgia, 41-24, in that matchup. I don't see that happening again now that Georgia has a better read on Bryce Young, Jameson Williams, Brian Robinson and the rest of Alabama's high-powered attack. Until that loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs hadn't given up more than 17 points in a game all season, holding eight foes to seven or fewer points. Georgia has the best defense in the country and that's not up for debate. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense, second in defensive total yards, No. 3 in passing yards and fourth in rushing yards. The Under is 8-2-2 in Georgia's last 12 neutral site games. Alabama, naturally, has defensive studs, too. The Crimson Tide also is facing a lesser QB in Stetson Bennett. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -120 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
I want the best quarterback in college football going for me here in this Sugar Bowl game. That QB is Matt Corral. Baylor has an improved defense. But the Bears haven't faced a quarterback of Corral's caliber with his legs and big arm. The Bears were fortunate to reach this game by nipping Oklahoma State, 21-16, in the Big 12 championship game. The Bears intercepted Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders four times in that victory. Corral can run like Sanders, but his throwing is far, far more accurate and better. Corral completed 68.4 percent of his throws for 3,339 yards and 20 TD's while adding 597 yards rushing and 11 running TD's. Here's the kicker about Corral: He threw just four interceptions in 380 attempts. The Rebels' offensive coordinator is Jeff Lebby, who was a former assistant coach at Baylor under Art Briles. Ole Miss averaged 506.7 yards and 35.9 points a game. The Rebels are deep at running back and wide receiver giving Corral plenty of options. The highly-respected Lebby will become Oklahoma's offensive coordinator following this game. Baylor isn't going to be able to slow down the Rebels unless coming up with turnovers. Bears QB Gerry Bohanon is not in Corral's class - few are - and he's coming off a hamstring injury. So his mobility might not be 100 percent. |
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12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
Exit Texas A&M. Enter Rutgers. The result is Wake Forest is going to win this Gator Bowl. The question is by how many? The Aggies had to pull out due to COVID problems. Rutgers was chosen to replace Texas A&M. The Scarlet Knights' season should have ended at the end of November since they are 5-7. They weren't even eligible to play in a bowl. But strange things happen in this COVID-laced sports world. So, just barely a week ago, the Scarlet Knights found out they are going to a bowl game after all. This one. Two things: Rutgers isn't a legitimate bowl team and the Scarlet Knights don't nearly have enough time mentally and physically to adequately prepare for this game. The line has been steamed up and it's justified. Wake Forest has a very strong offense averaging 41.2 points a game, fifth-best in the country. Sam Hartman was one of the most productive QB's in the nation. Rutgers ranked 79th in total defense and that's playing against a number of boring offenses in the Big Ten. The Demon Deacons aren't nearly as good defensively, but Rutgers is very weak offensively ranking 113th in points scored and 118th in yardage. This is a real mismatch where the opponent and situation work strongly against Rutgers. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41.5 | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Going by season statistics, this total seems right. But I find it too low given current form and the respective offenses having ample time to prepare.  Wisconsin finished its regular season giving up 28 points to Nebraska and 23 points to Minnesota. These were not two of the Big Ten's more powerful offenses.  Arizona State averages nearly 30 points a game and ranked 23rd in rushing. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels is a dual threat.  The Badgers have another strong ground attack ranking 16th in the nation. Discounting their final regular season game against Minnesota, the Badgers averaged 35.8 points in their last five games.Â
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too. The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh v. Michigan State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 320 h 4 m | Show |
This figured to be an entertaining, high-scoring game. Not anymore with word that Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III are not going to play. Those two not playing completely changes the total. Pickett passed for 4,319 yards and 42 TD's. Walker rushed for 1,636 yards and scored 18 TD's. They are the focal points of their team's offenses. Michigan State gave up 25.7 points per game. The Spartans now will draw Pittsburgh backup QB Nick Patti, a massive drop for Pittsburgh. The Panthers also will be minus well-respected offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, who left for Nebraska. That's another huge hit for the Panthers' offense. The Panthers held opponents to 23.1 points. Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi made his reputation as Michigan State's defensive coordinator before taking over at Pittsburgh. The Spartans are ground-oriented. Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the nation in run defense. Payton Thorne is a decent QB for Michigan State, but he's far from elite. He'll be facing a tough Panthers' defensive line. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota UNDER 45 | Top | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
Two slow-paced, grind-out, ground-oriented type teams with mediocre quarterbacks. That's what we have here in this Guaranteed Rate Bowl between West Virginia and Minnesota. Given the matchup and circumstances, this game should be a dead nuts Under. West Virginia ranks 93rd in tempo. The Mountaineers have a subpar offensive line and QB in Jarrett Doege. Their best running back is Leddie Brown, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored 13 TD's. Brown, though, opted out. Minnesota is extremely tough defensively ranking in the top 11 in the major defensive categories - points, yards, passing yards and rushing yards. Only three teams surrendered fewer yards per game than the Gophers. Minnesota plays even slower than West Virginia. The Gophers lost their first two running backs. But that doesn't change their approach. They run nearly 70 percent of the time. Their quarterback, Tanner Morgan, has had a disappointing season. Minnesota ranked 115th in passing. West Virginia ranks 33rd in run defense. |
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