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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada UNDER 56.5 | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Nevada's outstanding passing attack is gutted with opt outs and transfers. The Wolf Pack will be minus star QB Carson Strong, tight end Cole Turner and wide receivers Romeo Doubs, Tory Horton, Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart. In addition, two of the Wolf Pack's starting offensive linemen won't be playing. Take all of that firepower away and of course the Wolf Pack aren't left with much. Nevada is going to have to run the ball more than normal. The Wolf Pack ranked 129th in rushing averaging 2.9 yards a carry. Western MIchigan gave up the 29th fewest yards in the nation. Unlike their offense, the Wolf Pack didn't suffer so many departures on defense. Nevada ranked a respectable 51st in scoring defense giving up 24.4 points a game. Western Michigan has been plagued by turnovers at times. Nevada ranked among the top 10 in turnovers. Note this is an extremely early start, 8 a.m. West Coast time for Nevada, so that could lead to sluggish play. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Nevada faced a situational challenge for this Quick Lane Bowl with the game being played in Detroit. Another break for Western Michigan is the 8 a.m. West Coast start time. Nevada is used to playing its games late in the afternoon, or at night.  But these situational disadvantages are nothing for the Wolf Pack compared to them losing nearly 20 players to opt outs or transfers. The list of those out for Nevada, include their star QB, Carson Strong, star tight end, Cole Turner, along with their three best wide receivers and two starting offensive linemen.  The Wolf Pack have nothing left of their passing attack facing a Western Michigan defense that ranked in the top 30 in total defense. Nevada doesn't have a reliable ground attack to fall back on either since it averaged fewer than three yards per carry.  The Broncos have a balanced offense that ranked 15th in the nation in total yards. Kaleb Eleby is one of the better QB's in the MAC and Skyy Moore was one of the top wide receivers in the conference.Â
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
This is far from being one of the better bowl matchups, but it's the only one on Christmas and there are enough edges for Georgia State to get involved in backing the Panthers. Georgia State is in much better current form than Ball State winning six of its last seven games. The Panthers finished as the No. 2 team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have a good football program and this is a chance for country-wise exposure being on national TV. The Panthers beat Western Kentucky, 39-21, in the LendingTree Bowl last season as a 3-point favorite. Ball State is a middle-of-the-road Mid-American Conference team that shouldn't even be in a bowl game at 6-6. The Cardinals are 4-8 ATS. They have lost three of their last five games. Georgia State holds a big edge on the ground. The Panthers rank eighth in rushing. Ball State is 96th in stopping the run giving up nearly 180 yards rushing.Â
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army UNDER 54.5 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
The perceived thinking about this Armed Services Bowl pitting Missouri versus Army is this: Army's triple-option attack is going to run rough shot against a Tigers defense that ranked 125th out of 130 FBS teams in stopping the run and that the Tigers are going to put up their share of points having averaged nearly 30 points during the regular season. I don't see either occurring. Army is strictly one-dimensional. The Cadets have no passing attack. They will be running the ball - eating clock - all game no matter what the score. Missouri's run defense is not as bad as its season statistics indicate. The Tigers greatly improved their rush defense down the stretch. They held South Carolina to 57 yards on the ground in 35 attempts three games ago and two games ago held Florida to 93 yards rushing on 33 carries for a 2.4 yard average. The Cadets may be flat, too, off a tremendously disappointing loss to arch-rival Navy in their last game. Army managed just 124 yards rushing against the Midshipmen on 33 carries, a 3.7-yard average. As for Missouri, its offense isn't nearly the same - nor effective - minus star all-purpose running back Tyler Badie. He produced 1,934 rushing and receiving yards while scoring 18 TD's. He opted out. The Tigers also are going to give Brady Cook his first career start instead of going with their regular quarterback, Connor Bazelak, who threw for 2,548 yards and 16 TD's during the regular season. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz was not pleased with Bazelak's performance in Missouri's last game hence the QB switch. Army ranks 15th in total defense and 36th in scoring defense giving up 22.3 points a game. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 17 m | Show |
Louisiana Lafayette has a tremendous defense. The Cajuns supplement their defense by playing ball control on offense, mixing running plays with short, conservative passes from Levi Lewis. This was on full display in the Cajuns' 24-16 victory against Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. That pattern will be on display again against Marshall in this New Orleans Bowl resulting in another Under. The Cajuns rank 11th in scoring defense giving up 18.2 points a game, while forcing 21 turnovers. Marshall QB Grant Wells threw 12 interceptions in 12 games. Marshall finished the regular season minus 5 in takeaways/giveaways. The total is higher than I believe it should be partly because Marshall surrendered 53 points to Western Kentucky in its last game. Western Kentucky, though, is the second-highest scoring team in the country averaging 43.1 points. Before that game, the Thunder Herd had given up an average of 16 points during their past six games. Marshall finished 13th nationally in sacks with 38 and has a star linebacker in Abraham Beauplan. |
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12-18-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Liberty UNDER 58.5 | 20-56 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
Malik Willis gets all the attention when it comes to Liberty. But the Flames are very strong defensively. They rank fifth in pass defense, 11th in defensive total yards and 30th in scoring defense holding foes to 21.7 points a game. Eastern Michigan doesn't run the ball effectively. Instead the Eagles rely on QB Ben Bryant and a short passing attack. Bryant is facing a top-notch pass defense here and a tough pass rush playing behind an offensive line that has yielded 38 sacks. The Eagles should get their share of sacks, too, since Liberty surrendered 50 sacks. Note that this bowl game is being played in Mobile, Ala., and the weather forecast is calling for an 80 percent chance of rain with thundershowers and wind in the 5-to-10 mph range. That's a bad break for Willis and a plus for the Under. |
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer. The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -118 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 49.5 | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
I see defense trumping offense here. Georgia is the top defensive team in the country both in fewest yards and points per game. Only once has Georgia allowed more than 13 points and that was giving up 17 to Tennessee in a 34-point victory when the Volunteers scored a late TD during garbage time.  Alabama has had issues protecting Bryce Young. He's been sacked 33 times, including getting sacked seven times by Auburn in the Crimson Tide's last game. |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 24 m | Show |
It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives. The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 52 m | Show | |
UL Lafayette rolled past Appalachian State, 41-13, as 4-point 'dogs on Oct. 12. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 11 in a row. Appalachian State is good. But I don't view Lafayette as a home 'dog again to the Mountaineers. Maybe the oddsmaker thinks the Ragin' Cajuns are distracted by their head coach, Billy Napier, being named head man at Florida. But Napier will be coaching this game. He recruited this team and has 20 starters back. Lafayette has won the Sun Belt Conference West Division each of the last four years under Napier. The Cajuns didn't get to play in the Sun Belt title game last year, though, because the game was canceled due to COVID-19. It's been a mistake to lay points against Lafayette at home during Napier's four years there as the Cajuns have covered 73 percent of the 15 times they've been a home 'dog. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky -115 v. UTSA | Top | 41-49 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 51 m | Show |
I want Western Kentucky and QB Bailey Zappe going for me in this Conference USA title game. The Hilltoppers have revenge for a 52-46 loss earlier this season to Texas San Antonio and have played better than the Roadrunners down the stretch. The Hilltoppers have won seven in a row going 6-1 ATS. The Roadrunners have failed to cover in their last three games and lost outright to underdog North Texas in their last game. Western Kentucky is the No. 1 passing team in the nation thanks to Bailey Zappe, who has thrown for 52 TD passes and nearly 5,000 yards in 12 games. The Hilltoppers rank second in the country in scoring and yards. The Roadrunners aren't nearly that dynamic. Defensively they are better at stopping the run. They rank 63rd in pass defense. |
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11-27-21 | Notre Dame -19 v. Stanford | 45-14 | Win | 100 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
Stanford is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last six games. The Cardinal has lost their last three games by an average of 32 points to Utah, Oregon State and California. Notre Dame is better than those teams. The Irish's ground game has picked up as their offensive has gotten better. Notre Dame not only will have huge edges at the skill positions, but also in the trenches. Stanford ranks 126th in rushing and 127th in stopping the run. A key for the Irish is motivation. They are making the long trip West against what has become an extremely weak opponent. Notre Dame, though, still is in the playoff hunt. So style points matter. That means the Irish will be primed for a blowout. Notre Dame has covered its past six road games and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times as a road favorite. Stanford is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home contests. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Syracuse is a very live underdog here especially given the circumstances. The Orange need a win to become bowl eligible. This is a very big deal to them since they've only been to one bowl game since 2013. Pittsburgh would like to win just from a rivalry standpoint, but the Panthers' incentive isn't nearly as great as Syracuse's. That's because the Panthers already have clinched the ACC Coastal Division and will be playing in the ACC title game next week regardless of this outcome. Pittsburgh probably doesn't want to show too much here and may even rest some starters during the game not wanting to risk injury. The Orange is 3-3 at home with two of those defeats coming by just a field goal. Syracuse has a top runner, Sean Tucker, who ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing. The Panthers' weakness is pass defense. So the Orange should be able to balance their attack. The Orange have the defensive ability to bother Kenny Pickett with 36 sacks and 78 tackles for lost yards. The Orange also have the No. 3 pass defense in the ACC. |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M -6.5 v. LSU | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Injuries, inconsistency and lack of offense have doomed LSU this season. Until beating UL Monroe, a lower-tier Sun Belt Conference team, last week the Tigers were 1-5 in their last six games. LSU is averaging only 14.6 points in its last three SEC games. The Tigers' weak offense really misses star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. Don't look for LSU to get well against stingy Texas A&M in departing coach Ed Orgeron's final home game. The Aggies are No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 14.9 points per game. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Texas A&M. The Aggies put up 41 points on Alabama. So their offense is capable. They'll do enough to cover this spread against a disinterested Tigers team playing the string out while waiting for a new coach. |
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11-27-21 | Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 45 | 14-47 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show | |
Neither Northwestern nor Illinois are going to bowl games. So this is their bowl game in this rivalry matchup. Both teams are run-oriented with bad passing attacks. So expect a lot of running with the clock moving. The weather forecast is favorable to lots of run plays, too, with a chance of rain and wind in the 10-20 mph range. The Wildcats rank second-to-last in the nation in scoring at 16.8 points. They haven't broken the 14-point barrier during their last five games, all against Big Ten teams. Andrew Marty is the Wildcats' fourth starting QB this season. He's thrown six interceptions during his four-game starting career while being sacked 10 times. Illinois isn't any better ranking 118th in total offense and 122nd in scoring offense averaging 17.7 points. The defenses are mediocre. Mediocrity trumps bad, though. |
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11-27-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Rice OVER 52.5 | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 40 h 14 m | Show | |
Two bad Conference USA teams with similar horrendous defense should translate to a higher-scoring game than this total. How bad are these defenses? Louisiana Tech is giving up 37.4 points in its last five games. The Bulldogs rank 103rd in defensive total yards, 116th in pass defense. Rice allows 36.6 points a game. Only four Division I teams give up more points per game. The Owls also are 105th in defensive total yards, 117th in pass defense. |
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11-26-21 | UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 50.5 | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
Air Force gives up 19.5 points per game. UNLV averages 20.4 points. So don't expect the Rebels to produce many points here. They have a good running back, Charles Williams, and that's about it to their offense. Their QB's are inexperienced and not good downfield passers. UNLV's offensive line has permitted 36 sacks. Only five teams give up fewer yards per game than the Falcons. UNLV doesn't have a good defense either. But the Rebels are decent in one defensive area - stopping the run where they ranked 50th in the country. Air Force is an option team that runs the ball nearly 88 percent of the time. That's going to eat clock. Both teams are among the bottom-six in terms of tempo, too. So the pace should be extremely slow. |
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11-20-21 | Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 50 | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 118 h 22 m | Show | |
Dave Aranda has long been known as a defensive whiz at Utah State and Wisconsin before going to LSU and now Baylor. The Bears have shown steady defensive improvement under Aranda. They just held Oklahoma to a season-low 14 points. Kansas State is a far drop from Oklahoma offensively. The Wildcats rank 92nd in total yards. But like Baylor, Kansas State has come on defensively giving up 24, 12, 10 and 17 points in its last four games, all versus Big 12 schools. Both teams rank in the top-four defensively in the Big 12. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow pace. The Bears rank 108th in tempo, while Kansas State is 128th in pace. The Under has cashed the last four times the teams have played at Kansas State. |
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11-20-21 | Appalachian State v. Troy +10 | 45-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Appalachian State is the class of the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference. Troy is a .500 team. But the Trojans have outscored their opponents by 26 points and this is their biggest game of the season. It is huge revenge for them after the Mountaineers defeated them by 37 points last season. That was the most lopsided loss Troy had last year. The Trojans have picked up their scoring averaging 27.6 points in their last five games. The Trojans rank 17th in defensive total yards and they have 36 sacks. The most points they've surrendered all season is 35. Appalachian State is down a tick at quarterback from previous seasons. Mountaineers QB Chase Brice has been picked off eight times. The Trojans have 13 takeaways, 11th-most in the country. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
Cheap price to lay with Minnesota against an Indiana team that has lost six in a row. The Hooisers hit rock bottom last week falling, 38-3, to Rutgers. Injuries have taken away the Hooisers' explosiveness. They are down to third-string QB freshman Donaven McCulley. Discounting a 35-point performance against Maryland, Indiana is averaging a meager 6.4 points in its last five games. The Hooisers have been held to seven or fewer points in four of their past six games. Minnesota won't be taking the Hooisers lightly being a game behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division. The Gophers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with their lone away defeat coming to Iowa last week by five points. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes and had 11 more first downs. Indiana ranks 106th in scoring defense giving up an average of 32 points. Given their lack of firepower and a defense that has worn down allowing 39.7 points in its last four games it's not difficult to see the Gophers covering a touchdown spread. |
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11-20-21 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 54.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
Florida State is playing better. The Seminoles just scored 31 points against Miami last week. Jordan Travis is back at QB for the Seminoles and he had a big game against the Hurricanes.  Boston College just put up 41 points on Georgia Tech last week. The Eagles are a much more dangerous team now that pro prospect Phil Jurkovec is back from injury. He's one of the better QB's in the country. Jurkovec should put up strong numbers against a Seminoles secondary that ranks 88th in pass defense.  The teams last met two seasons ago and there were 69 points scored in Florida State's 38-31 victory.Â
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11-20-21 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has lost just once in November during the last seven years. That lone defeat occurred against Baylor last Saturday.  I'm expecting the Sooners to bounce back in a big way at home against Iowa State, which is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four road contests.  The Sooners are in must-win mode if they hope to have any chance of making the College Football Playoffs. The 9-1 Sooners also need a victory to realistically keep alive their hopes of capturing a seventh straight Big 12 title.  Iowa State is enduring a disappointing season. The Cyclones are 6-4 and off a 41-38 loss to Texas Tech as a 13-point road favorite.Â
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11-19-21 | San Diego State -10.5 v. UNLV | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
These two teams are far apart from what this point spread may indicate. UNLV has a horrible defense and can't pass the ball. The Rebels are highly reliant on running back Charles Williams. The Aztecs have the fourth-best run defense in the country. The Aztecs are in must-win mode, too, needing to win this game and their regular-season finale to capture the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State buried UNLV, 34-6, last season. The Aztecs won't be taking the Rebels lightly, however. That's because UNLV has won two in a row after opening the season with eight straight losses. Note, though, the Rebels' victories are against New Mexico and Hawaii. The combined record of those two teams is 2-10. Before beating New Mexico and Hawaii, UNLV lost, 51-20, to Nevada. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 23-21, last week. The Rebels have permitted at least 35 points in five of their games. They rank 105th in scoring defense. San Diego State has one of the best running backs in the conference, Greg Bell, and upgraded at quarterback with the switch to Lucas Johnson four games ago. Punter Matt Araiza is a huge weapon for the Aztecs. He's on pace to set the single-season college mark averaging 52.2 yards per punt. UNLV ranks 119th in total yards and 113th in scoring. The Rebels may not reach 10 points considering they aren't likely to ever have good field position. The Aztecs have held six of their 10 foes to 14 or fewer points. |
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11-17-21 | Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
Considering the weather forecast for Muncie, Ind., the total on this game is too high.  There's a 90 percent chance of rain with winds in the 10-to-20 mph range.  That's going to hurt the passing attack of both teams and means more running plays.  Central Michigan ranks a respectable 56th versus the run. Ball State is a bend-but-not-break type of defense. You can move the ball on the Cardinals, but they don't give up many explosive plays.  The Under has cashed the last six times Ball State has played at home. |
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11-13-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State OVER 45 | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
Granted San Diego State is the best defense Nevada has seen all season. But the Wolf Pack are going to get their share of points with QB Carson Strong and his strong group of receiving targets. Nevada is averaging 40 points in its last six games. The Wolf Pack lead the Mountain West Conference in scoring at 36.4 points. Strong is fourth in the nation in passing yards with 3,197 yards. He's completed 70.5 percent of his passes. San Diego State is going to hold up its end of the bargain, too, in getting this total Over. The Aztecs are a top-40 rushing team. Lucas Johnson is an upgrade for them at QB replacing Jordon Brookshire. The Wolf Pack rank 102nd in pass defense. So they can't stack the line to key on the run without being vulnerable in their already weak secondary. |
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11-13-21 | NC State v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5 | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 33 m | Show | |
Just because Wake Forest and North Carolina scored a combined 113 points in the Tar Heels' 58-55 win last week, doesn't mean the Demon Deacons are going to produce a ton of points this week. That was a deflating loss for them halting their unbeaten season and now they draw a tough defensive foe in North Carolina State. North Carolina managed just 23 points against Pittsburgh Thursday night. I expect Wake Forest's scoring will be down, too, from last week. North Carolina State ranks seventh in scoring defense giving up only 16 points a game. Only 17 teams give up fewer yards per game than the Wolfpack. North Carolina State hasn't topped 28 points in its last two games against Louisville and Florida State. Those are both below defenses. |
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11-13-21 | South Alabama v. Appalachian State UNDER 52.5 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
South Alabama is without its starting QB Jake Bentley, who is out with a knee injury. That puts more pressure on the Jaguars' ground attack, which hasn't been good. The Jaguars rank 96th in rushing. I don't expect South Alabama to score many points here. But the Jaguars do have a good defense. Only 16 teams give up fewer yards per game than South Alabama. The Jaguars are 21st in run defense. Appalachian State runs nearly 60 percent of the time. The Mountaineers will be content to run clock not taking chances against this weak foe, especially considering the weather forecast. Heavy winds in the 16-28 mph range are being forecast. This is a huge plus for the Under. |
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11-13-21 | Michigan v. Penn State +1.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The point spread may not reflect it, but Penn State is the better team. The Nittany Lions are home, too, and don't have the injuries Michigan does. Penn State's losses occurred to Illinois in overtime, to Iowa by three on the road when they were leading by two touchdowns before QB Sean Clifford was injured and a tough nine-point road loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have played a far more difficult schedule than the Wolverines. Penn State has covered 10 of its last 13 games, while Michigan has failed to cover the past six times when going against above .500 opponents.  Penn State got back on track smashing Maryland, 31-14, on the road last week. Clifford and his star wide receiver Jahan Dotson had big games. Michigan can't match that passing firepower. The Wolverines are dealing with a number of skill position injuries with running back Blake Corum, wide receivers A.J. Henning and Andrel Anthony all hurt along with tight end Erick All. Corum is their second leading rusher, while All is their second leading receiver. |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5 v. Baylor | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has defeated Baylor seven straight times. The unbeaten Sooners also have won 23 consecutive November games. I don't see the Bears putting a halt to that streak. Baylor lost its momentum with a 30-28 loss to TCU last week. The Bears surrendered 570 of total offense to a Horned Frogs squad going with a backup QB and minus their best running back. It's scary how many points and yards the Sooners can put up on the Bears especially being idle last week giving offensive guru Lincoln Riley ample time to prepare and game plan. The Sooners' offense has taken off since Caleb Williams replaced disappointing Spencer Rattler at QB. The Sooners are averaging 46.2 points in their last five games. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Rallying from an 18-point second-half deficit, North Carolina came back to defeat ninth-ranked Wake Forest, 58-55, this past Saturday. It was a great home win for the Tar Heels. However, now the Tar Heels have to travel on a short week to face another ranked team, Pittsburgh. The Panthers match up better against the Tar Heels than the Demon Deacons did. Plus the Panthers are home and in a great situational spot catching the Tar Heels on short rest following a great victory. North Carolina has lost and failed to cover the three times it has played away from home this season, losing those games by an average of 13.3 points. Kenny Pickett could be the most improved quarterback in college football. Sparked by Pickett, a trio of good running backs and excellent wideouts, the Panthers are averaging a nation-best 45 points a game. They are No. 2 in the country in yards averaging 543.3. Sam Howell is one of the top QB's in the country. The Tar Heels can't match Pitt's numbers, though, especially when on the road and going against a good defense. North Carolina averages 22 points in its non-home games. North Carolina gives up 33.4 points per game. Pittsburgh holds foes to 22.7 points per game and ranks 15th in run defense. The Panthers give up just 3.2 yards per carry, bad news for Tar Heels' running back Ty Chandler. Howell is less effective if he's one-dimensional without Chandler producing on the ground. Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the ACC. Expect Pickett to get the better of Howell backed by the superior defense and for Pittsburgh to win this one by double-digits. |
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11-06-21 | USC v. Arizona State -8 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 35 m | Show | |
There's a lot wrong with USC these days. The Trojans have an interim head coach. A quarterback controversy. And they just lost their best player, Drake London. He was the top wide receiver in the country and the key to USC's passing attack. The Trojans were nip and tuck with winless Arizona last week before winning, 41-34. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in the country. Yet they scored 34 points on USC's defense. What does that tell you about USC? Arizona State is off a terrible performance, too, losing, 34-21, as a 16 1/2-point favorite to Washington State. Committing five turnovers was a killer for the Sun Devils. Jayden Daniels is a much better QB than he showed in that game. I'm looking for the Sun Devils to bounce back at home against the dysfunctional Trojans. ASU should be able to run more effectively against the Trojans than against the Cougars. USC QB Kedon Slovis is having a disappointing season. He's being pushed by freshman Jaxson Dart, who Arizona State knows well having recruited him. Both QB's are going to dearly miss the fantastic London. ASU ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in sacks with 22. So Slovis and Dart aren't going to have a clean pocket, especially with USC starting freshmen at the offensive tackle spots. |
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11-06-21 | Oregon v. Washington UNDER 51 | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a bitter rivalry game as these teams recruit hard against each other. So I'm expecting an intense, defensive-minded game. Washington has the top pass defense in the country. The Huskies rank 17th in scoring defense holding foes to 18.9. They've held their past three opponents, all Pac-12 teams, to an average of 17.6 points. This is the game where the Ducks really could miss their best runner, CJ Verdell. He's out for the season.  Oregon has intercepted 11 passes and features the No. 1 defensive lineman in the country, Kayvon Thibodeaux. He's being projected as the No. 1 pick in the draft.  Rain and heavy wind are in the forecast, which are two more huge pluses for the Under.Â
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11-06-21 | Iowa -12 v. Northwestern | 17-12 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 15 m | Show | |
Iowa was never even close to being the second-best team in the country even opening 6-0. But now that the Hawkeyes are off losses to Wisconsin and Purdue by a combined margin of 51-14, they are being underrated with this short point spread stepping this far down in class. The Hawkeyes committed a combined seven turnovers against the Badgers and Boilermakers. They had gone into those games plus 15 in turnover margin. Look for the well-coached Hawkeyes to get back on track against Northwestern, a team they match up much better against. Iowa has a very strong defense. Northwestern has a very weak offense. The Wildcats average fewer than 20 points a game. They rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points and 11th in scrimmage yards. The Wildcats were just blown out by Minnesota, 41-14. Iowa has a good running back in Tyler Goodson. He should be in line for a strong game as Northwestern ranks 126th in the nation in run defense. If the Hawkeyes establish a ground attack, which they didn't do against Wisconsin and Purdue, this would make things much easier for pocket passer Spencer Petras. The Hawkeyes have been at their best beating and covering against bad teams going 21-6 ATS as a road favorite. |
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11-06-21 | Auburn +4.5 v. Texas A&M | 3-20 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
Texas A&M is getting a lot of respect for having slain Alabama. I see the Aggies getting too much respect here. Auburn is 4-1 in its last five games with its only loss coming to Georgia during this span. The Tigers defeated Arkansas by two TD's two games ago. People forget that Texas A&M, victors over Alabama, lost to Arkansas, 20-10.  Zach Calzada had the game of his life against Alabama. Truth be told, though, Calzada isn't nearly that good of a quarterback. Auburn is very strong in the trenches. The Tigers also have an experienced QB in Bo Nix, who doesn't commit turnovers. He has been picked off just twice this season. Compare this to Calzada, who has thrown an interception in each of his last six games.  Auburn has covered the past four times it has played on the road against Texas A&M.Â
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11-06-21 | Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 57 | Top | 35-10 | Win | 100 | 96 h 11 m | Show |
Don't expect many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. Not only are the offenses well below average, but so is the tempo. Both Kansas and Kansas State rank among the bottom 10 in pace. Kansas State ranks 93rd in total yards and 77th in scoring at 27.5 points. This is in the high-scoring Big 12 Conference, too. The Wildcats are much better defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest yards and points allowed. They also have the 26th best rush defense, bad news for the Jayhawks. Kansas averages a puny 15.8 points a game. The Jayhawks rank 120th in total yards. They are averaging 11.7 points in their last four games - all versus Big 12 foes.Â
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan +10 v. Western Michigan | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
I don't see where Western Michigan is double-digits better than Central Michigan even at home. I find this line out of whack. Each team averages 29 points a game. Central Michigan gives up one more point per game than Western Michigan. The Chippewas upset Toledo in overtime two games ago. Western Michigan just played Toledo last week and lost, 34-15. Both teams have balanced attacks. I do give the Broncos an edge at the skill position spots with QB Kaleb Eleby, wide receiver Skyy Moore and running back La'darius Jefferson. Eleby is my starting QB on my Mid-American Conference fantasy team. (Yes I actually am in a MAC fantasy league, maybe the only one in the country.) But the Broncos' edge in skill position talent is offset by turnovers. Western Michigan has turned the ball over twice as much as Central Michigan this season. The Broncos only have two takeaways, too, during their last four games. Central Michigan has been outstanding in a 'dog role under Jim McElwain going 9-3 ATS during the last two plus seasons. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven MAC games. This is a huge in-state rivalry game. The road team has dominated the point spread in this series covering eight of the past nine times. |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan +9 v. Toledo | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is an attractive underdog here. The Eagles have the more experienced and accurate QB in Ben Bryant. Average four more points per game than Toledo and have a tremendous road spread record covering 24 of their last 33 away games for 73 percent.  The Eagles are averaging nearly 33 points per game. Toledo has the superior defense. The Rockets only have five takeaways, however.  Rockets freshman QB Dequan Finn is completing just 51 percent of his passes. Eastern Michigan is average defensively giving up 24.9 points a game. It has been difficult for a MAC team to beat the Eagles by double-digits. Eastern Michigan has lost by more than eight points only twice in its last 10 conference defeats.  Toledo failed to cover the last two times it was favored. The Rockets lost, 22-20, at home to Northern Illinois as a 13-point favorite on Oct. 9 and fell, 26-23 in overtime, to Central Michigan as a five-point road favorite on Oct. 16.Â
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10-30-21 | Arizona v. USC UNDER 56 | 34-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
A game involving winless Arizona shouldn't have a total this high. The Wildcats rank 127th in scoring at a meager 14.3 points a game. The Under has cashed in Arizona's last three games, winning by an average of more than 10 points under the total. The Wildcats, though, haven't quit on defense. They held Washington to seven points in the fourth quarter last week before losing, 21-16. Mistake-prone USC is in disarray. The Trojans have an interim coach and morale issues. They are averaging 21 points their last two games, losses to Notre Dame and Utah. USC QB Kedon Slovis entered this season highly-rated. But Slovis has put up mediocre numbers with a 9-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio. |
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10-30-21 | SMU +1 v. Houston | 37-44 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
The spot is ripe for SMU. The Mustangs haven't played in 10 days. They are rested and should be well prepared. Houston lost by 17 points to Texas Tech opening week and then reeled off six straight victories. None of the teams the Cougars beat, though, is as good as SMU. I don't see the Cougars being strong enough to step up here. They needed overtime to beat East Carolina, 31-24, last Saturday. That game lasted much longer than expected due to several weather delays. Cougars QB Clayton Tune is dealing with a lingering hamstring injury. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai is having a huge season with 29 TD passes and a 71.1 percent completion percentage. |
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10-30-21 | Southern Miss v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 48 | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
Discount a 37-0 victory against Grambling, an FCS opponent, and Southern Mississippi hasn't scored more than 19 points all season. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 14.1 points.  Southern Mississippi rushes for only 2.5 yards a carry and its QB's have combined to throw 11 interceptions and just seven TD's. The Golden Eagles are second to last in the nation in yards per play. Middle Tennessee State is tied with Iowa for the most takeaways with 20.  The Golden Eagles, though, are better defensively. Their defensive numbers are skewed by giving up 63 points to Alabama. Middle Tennessee State ranks 104th in yards gained.  Weather could factor here, too. Rain is expected with winds in the 12-20 mph range.  |
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10-30-21 | Louisiana Tech -4 v. Old Dominion | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 57 m | Show |
Simply put there's a class difference here not reflective of the betting line. Louisiana Tech is experiencing a down and disappointing season. But the Bulldogs still harbor bowl hopes. They are much superior to Old Dominion, which is a bottom-10 caliber team. Louisiana Tech is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost three in a row. A pair of those losses were to North Carolina State and to Texas San Antonio, which is the top 25. Old Dominion has dropped five consecutive games. The Monarchs' lone victory was against Hampton, a non Division-I opponent. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests. The strength of the Bulldogs is their passing attack, which ranks 25th. QB Austin Kendall has three good wide receivers in Smoke Harris, Bub Means and Tre Harris. Old Dominion ranks 126th in pass defense. The Monarchs are not going to be able to stop Louisiana Tech's passing attack. Their hope is Louisiana Tech turns the ball over, which it has. However, the Monarchs only have three takeaways. Without causing turnovers, Old Dominion won't be able to hang close. |
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10-30-21 | Rutgers -117 v. Illinois | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
Rutgers has become a respectable Big Ten team under Greg Schiano. The Scarlet Knights can't compete with the conference elites, but they can beat the lower tier teams such as Illinois especially in this instance given the situation and the Illini's QB situation. Illinois is off a huge nine overtime victory against Penn State. The Illini were 24-point road 'dogs in that game. Unfortunately for the Illini they lost their quarterback, Artur Sitkowski, in that game to a broken arm. Brandon Peters replaces Sitkowski. Peters has starting experience, but he's a downgrade. Rutgers has a top-50 scoring defense despite having played Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. |
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10-29-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -20 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
There are two winless FBS football teams - Arizona and UNLV. The Rebels have lost 13 straight games. They aren't going to end that losing skid at Nevada-Reno. The answer is yes because of the makeup of these two teams and a huge edge in talent for the Wolf Pack. UNLV's strength is running the ball. Charles Williams is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West Conference. This is no secret to the Wolf Pack. They are going to stack the line and bring their safeties up to key on Williams and UNLV's ground attack. The Rebels have a pair of inexperienced freshmen quarterbacks. Neither of whom has demonstrated any consistency passing downfield. Nevada's passing attack is too strong for the Rebels to slow down. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong is a pro prospect. The Wolf Pack rank third in the nation in passing yards. Strong has multiple excellent receiving targets. UNLV ranks 123rd out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense efficiency. The Rebels give up a staggering 71.2 percent completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt. Strong has completed 70.6 percent of his throws with a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rebels only have seven sacks and five takeaways. They can't count on a pass rush, nor takeaways to keep them in the game. Because of their poor passing attack, the Rebels are in big trouble when they fall behind. UNLV averages fewer than 20 points a game and ranks 123rd in total yards. UNLV's defense gives up 33.9 points a game, which ranks 117th. Strong should have no trouble lighting up the Rebels' porous defense. UNLV doesn't have the passing attack to stay within three touchowns of Reno. The Wolf Pack are 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games.  |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State +3 v. Air Force | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
I'm attracted to the unbeaten Aztecs, especially if getting more than a field goal, in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring game.  There are no secrets here. These teams are going to be running - a lot. San Diego State has the superior run defense and the best running back in Greg Bell.  The Aztecs rank No. 1 in the country in run defense. They are holding foes to only 16 points a game.  The Falcons are favored because of home field and the Aztecs switching quarterbacks going to Lucas Johnson, who began his career at Georgia Tech. Johnson can only be an upgrade on Jordan Brookshire.Â
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by some of the skill position stars such as Breece Hall, Jaylen Warren and Tay Martin. Defense is going to dominate more than offense.  Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 surrendering 16.3 points and 251.3 yards. Oklahoma State will need to effectively run because its QB, Spencer Sanders, is such an inaccurate passer. The Cyclones rank 14th in rush defense holding foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game.  Iowa State ranks 20th from the the bottom in tempo. The Cyclones play at a very leisurely pace. They are going to feed Hall the ball a lot. Oklahoma State ranks 15th in run defense. The Cowboys also hold foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Cowboys linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez leads the Big 12 in tackles. Â
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10-23-21 | Maryland v. Minnesota -4 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
Minnesota has picked up its game since a Week 4 upset loss to Bowling Green. Since that defeat the Gophers pulled their own upsets knocking off Purdue on the road and Nebraska with both victories coming by seven points.  Tanner Morgan finally is showing something at quarterback for Minnesota. The Gophers' offensive line is opening holes for their running backs no matter who carries the ball and Minnesota's defense has allowed just 12.5 points in its last four games.  Maryland's confidence is down after blowout losses to Iowa and Ohio State by a combined 96 points.  The Gophers hold a big coaching edge, too, with PJ Fleck versus Mike Locklsley.  The Terrapins have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a road 'dog.
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10-23-21 | Kent State v. Ohio OVER 65.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -113 | 97 h 43 m | Show | |
These two MAC teams last played two seasons ago. There were 83 points scored.  There could be that many points produced this time around, too. Kent State has a very good QB in Dustin Crum. The Golden Flashes' offensive statistics are skewed by the tough non-conference defenses they faced earlier in the season - Texas A&M, Maryland and Iowa. But since MAC play began, the Golden Flashes are averaging 35.3 points in their three conference games.  A big thing about Kent State is it plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Ohio gives up 30.7 points. The Bobcats rank 99th in yards allowed.  The 1-6 Bobcats are bad. But they do one thing right - run the ball. Their QB, Armani Rogers, is a running quarterback. Only 31 teams average more yards on the ground than Ohio. Kent State ranks 121st in rush defense. So the Bobcats should be able to contribute their share of points.  |
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10-23-21 | Eastern Michigan -3.5 v. Bowling Green | 55-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is 4-3 and needs this game if it wants to make a bowl game, which is a big deal for the Eagles. The Eagles are averaging a respectable 29.6 points a game.  Bowling Green ranks 111th in run defense. The Falcons have gone downhill since upsetting Minnesota a month ago losing their last three games, all by 7 or more points to MAC foes Kent State, Akron and Northern Illinois. The Falcons failed to win a conference game last year. If you count just FBS schools, the Falcons have lost 17 of their last 19 home games.  The Eagles are far from being a great team. But they are decent enough to cover this short road number against this sinking opponent.  |
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10-21-21 | Tulane v. SMU -13.5 | Top | 26-55 | Win | 100 | 69 h 1 m | Show |
Tulane is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last four games. The Green Wave have lost their last two games by 23 points to East Carolina and by 18 to Houston.  Now the Green Wave go on the road to face a motivated SMU team that wants to prove itself as the best team in the American Athletic Conference and a legitimate top-25 team. The Mustangs are ranked No. 21 in the currentThe Associated Press poll. Not only are the Mustangs home, but this is a nationally televised game on ESPN.  Tulane ranks among the bottom-eight in points allowed at 40.2 and yards giving up more than 475 per game.  QB Tanner Mordecia has come through in a big way for the Mustangs. SMU ranks in the top-10 in scoring at 40.7 and in yards gained.  The Green Wave are averaging 23.2 points in their last four games. SMU should be good for at least 40 points here. Tulane isn't going to be able to keep up.Â
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10-16-21 | Hawaii +14.5 v. Nevada | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
Hawaii has the right ingredients to hang with Nevada. I'm fully expecting starting QB Chevan Cordeiro to be behind center. Head coach Todd Graham expects that, too. But I'm fine if the Rainbow Warriors have to use backup QB Brayden Schager, who threw a pair of TD passes and no interceptions in Hawaii's upset win against Fresno State, 27-24. That was two weeks ago. The Rainbow Warriors were idle last week. Hawaii has some underrated running backs in Dae Dae Hunter and Dedrick Parson, who can take advantage of Nevada's less-than-stellar run defense. The Warriors also have pass defense to bother Carson Strong. Hawaii has come up with 16 takeaways, which was tied for third-most in the nation entering Friday.  The Wolfpack will have to contend with Calvin Turner Jr., perhaps the best all-around and most dynamic player in the Mountain West Conference.  This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering the past five times.Â
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10-16-21 | Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5 | Top | 49-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
Alabama put up 41 points on Mississippi State last year. The Crimson Tide are in the mood to run up a score after getting upset, 41-38, by Texas A&M last week.  The Crimson Tide average 44.3 points per game. Only five teams score more per game.  Not surprisingly, Mississippi State is all about passing under Mike Leach. The Bulldogs rank fifth in the nation in passing yards.  Zach Calzada burned Alabama for nearly 300 passing yards and 3 TD throws last week. Mississippi State QB Will Rogers is the second-most accurate passer in the country connecting on 75.7 percent of his throws. Rogers has thrown for 1,862 yards with a 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  So the Bulldogs should put up their share of points.Â
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10-16-21 | Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5 | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
These teams don't have strong defenses, but their offenses are terrible. Vanderbilt is last in the nation in scoring averaging 13.3 points in its six games. The Commodores are 121st in yards per game at 310.7. South Carolina ranks 108th in scoring at 22 points and is 112th in yards at 335. The Gamecocks also play at a very slow tempo.  Vanderbilt passes more than South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks' defense strength is their secondary. They rank 12th in pass defense.  Weather could factor, too, as there is a wind and a chance of rain.Â
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10-16-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 5 m | Show | |
Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Bobcats average just 19.3 points. They rank 119th in passing yards. The Bobcats are a running team, which eats clock. Buffalo ranks 95th in passing. The Bulls also like to run a lot. The Bulls' offense numbers are skewed because they opened the season scoring 69 points against Wagner, a non-Division I school.  Another big key to the Under is weather. The forecast in Buffalo is for rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-35 mph range.Â
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10-16-21 | Rutgers -130 v. Northwestern | 7-21 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
These two teams sit at the bottom of their respective divisions in the Big Ten. But there's a class difference here. Rutgers is much the better team. Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights on the path to respectability. Rutgers opened 3-0, but then had to play a gauntlet of Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State.  Rutgers has played a much tougher schedule than Northwestern. The Wildcats have just one win against an FBS team - and that was against Ohio, which is 1-5. The Wildcats have been outscored, 94-28, in their two Big Ten games losing to Michigan State and Nebraska.  Rutgers has covered in its last seven road contests. That says something about the job Schiano is doing.
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10-15-21 | San Diego State -9 v. San Jose State | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
This isn't 2020 when San Jose State had a magical season winning all seven of their regular season games. The Spartans are way down this year because their offense has gone into the tank.  QB Nick Starkel has missed the last two games and is questionable for this matchup. Starkel hasn't played well. Spartans backup QB Nick Nash did not look good in losing to Colorado State, 32-14, last week.  The Spartans rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points a game and are 113th in total yards. They have scored fewer than 18 points in four of their five games versus Division I teams. San Jose has yet to cover against any of the five Division I opponents they've played. San Diego State is 5-0, winning with a strong running game and solid defense. Greg Bell is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West. The Spartans are minus 13 in turnover ratio. The Aztecs have 18 sacks and seven interceptions.Â
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State -4 v. UL-Lafayette | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Now that I don't have to lay more than four points, I'm going to get involved with Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers are the more well-rounded team and have more quality victories. They've defeated Marshall and own a blowout victory against Georgia State. Lafayette defeated South Alabama by two points and didn't look impressive in beating Nicholls State and Georgia Southern.  Appalachian State has topped 500 yards in each of its last three games. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-4 ATS with their lone cover occurring versus Ohio. Their offense is down from last season. They also have kicking problems. Their regular kicker is out for the year and their backup, Nate Snyder, missed two field goals and an extra point in their last game.  The Mountaineers have revenge motivation, too, after losing, 24-21, last year. Prior to that game, the Mountaineers were 8-0 versus Lafayette.
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10-09-21 | New Mexico State v. Nevada OVER 62.5 | Top | 28-55 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
Nevada averages more than 32 points a game and has one of the best QB's in the country, Carson Strong. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 115th in scoring defense giving up 34.2 points and 113th in yards allowed at 449.8. It's safe to expect Nevada to put up at least 40 points on the Aggies.  The key here is getting enough scoring from New Mexico State. I see that happening.  The Aggies are a passing team, averaging 43 throws per game. It's a short passing attack, but they are not run-oriented at all. The Aggies have averaged 30 points per game in their last four matchups facing San Jose State, Hawaii, South Carolina State and New Mexico.  The weather should be fine with no rain and little wind.Â
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10-09-21 | LSU +3 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 27 m | Show | |
Great job by Kentucky upsetting Florida last week. Mark Stoops has made the Wildcats respectable. But I don't see Kentucky taking out LSU, too, just a week later and coming right after the glow of its Florida victory.  I understand the Tigers are way down from their national championship team of two seasons ago. We're still talking LSU, though, with its great athletes, talent and speed. LSU QB Max Johnson has the ability and arm to dent a Kentucky secondary that hasn't really been tested fully yet. The Wildcats don't have much of a pass rush either. I prefer Kentucky when in a 'dog role. Before upsetting Florida, the Wildcats had defeated South Carolina by six points and Tennessee Chattanooga by only five points as a 33-point home favorite.Â
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10-09-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech | 32-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
Cincinnati exposed Notre Dame last week for what the Irish really are, a team whose luck ran out when they met a really good defense.  Notre Dame meets another outstanding defense here in Virginia Tech. The Hokies give up the 10th-fewest points per game in the country. They held Sam Howell and North Carolina to 10 points. The Tar Heels are averaging 44.5 points in their other four games.  The Irish can't dent a really strong defense because they lack a star quarterback, have a mediocre-at-best offensive line and no star wide receivers. Their best pass catcher is tight end is Michael Mayer and he's banged-up dealing with a groin injury.  Virginia Tech also has the advantage of having had two weeks to rest and prepare. The Hokies were idle last week.Â
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10-09-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina OVER 63.5 | 35-25 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 53 m | Show | |
North Carolina is averaging 37.6 points and has a top-20 offense spearheaded by one of the best QB's in college football, Sam Howell. But what's scary about the Tar Heels is they still have room to improve offensively.  That could come against Florida State, which gives up 31.4 points and ranks 103rd in pass defense. Howell is on a streak of four straight 300 passing yards games.  The Tar Heels are big favorites here, but I expect Florida State to contribute its share of points. North Carolina has a below average defense. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis holds the school record for most career rushing yards. The Tar Heels rank 72nd in rush defense. Their defense has come up with only three takeaways.Â
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10-09-21 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47 | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
Good luck to Bo Nix and Auburn's offense. They will need it here. Georgia is the No. 1 defensive team in the nation. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense giving up an insanely-low 4.6 points a game and are No. 1 in total yards and pass defense. Auburn has some good running backs. But the Bulldogs have the fourth-best run defense, too.  Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs probably are going to run even more than their 62 percent because their star QB, JT Daniels, isn't likely to play due to a back injury. The Bulldogs also play at a very slow tempo. Auburn ranks 15th in run defense giving up 90 yards on the ground and just 2.5 yards per carry.Â
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10-08-21 | Temple +30 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
Cincinnati is coming off one of its biggest wins ever, a road victory last week against then No. 9 ranked Notre Dame. No doubt the Bearcats are good, darn good. But the linesmaker isn't giving Temple enough respect here. Like other schools, Temple had its 2020 season disrupted by COVID-19. They weren't even able to scrimmage until October. So the Owls' 1-6 2020 season is not indicative of who they are. Temple has been well-coached and enjoyed good success during the previous five years before 2020.  Things are back to normal for Temple. The Owls have a winning record. They showed their potential, upsetting Memphis, 34-31, as 11-point home 'dogs last week. Cincinnati has the far superior defense, but the Owls don't lack firepower. Wide receiver Jaden Blue is a pro prospect. QB D'Wan Mathis is off his finest performance completing 35 passes to a dozen different receivers against Memphis for 322 yards and three TD's. The two teams did not meet last year. But in three meetings from 2017-2019, Temple beat Cincinnati twice and lost, 15-13, in 2019 when the Bearcats returned a 99-yard defensive conversion in the fourth quarter.  The Owls have covered 68 percent of the time they've been a road 'dog the last 31 times.  It's asking too much of Cincinnati to cover this large of a number against an underrated foe following one of their all-time best victories.Â
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10-02-21 | Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a low total for a college game featuring two lower-scale defenses. Old Dominion gives up 32.3 points a game. UTEP yields nearly 25 points per game. The Monarchs can run the ball somewhat effectively. They also play at a fast tempo, which is a huge key.  The perception with UTEP is that it can't produce points. That perception doesn't hold true anymore. The Miners actually have a couple of dangerous receiving weapons. Jacob Cowing averages 23.4 yards per catch, while Justin Garrett averages 17.4 7yards a reception. As a team, the Miners rank in the top 50 in yards per play.Â
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10-02-21 | Washington v. Oregon State -123 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
Oregon State could be the most improved team in the country while Washington remains overrated by the oddsmaker.  This is the best team Jonathan Smith has had in his four years as head coach at Oregon State. His Beavers have gone 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games, including winning and covered each of the last three weeks. The Beavers just upset USC, 45-27, on the road last week.  Excluding a 52-3 win against Arkansas State, which gives up the most yards in the country, Washington is averaging 13.6 points in regulation during its three other games. The Huskies have been overrated on defense, too, and are dealing with injuries to starting cornerbacks, Brendan Radley-Hiles and Trent McDuffie. The Huskies won't have Cade Otton, one of the better tight ends in the Pac-12. He's in COVID-19 protocol.Â
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10-02-21 | Liberty v. UAB UNDER 50 | 36-12 | Win | 100 | 105 h 13 m | Show | |
Liberty draws attention because of Malik Willis, one of the best QB's in the country. But the Flames have one of the top defenses in the country, too, ranking 14th in fewest points and eighth in total yards.  UAB couldn't step up in class when it played Georgia. The Blazers were blown out in that game. But playing foes at their level, the Blazers are very good. They have given up 27 points in their three other games.  Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow tempo.  Liberty has pass protection issues that UAB can take advantage of.Â
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10-02-21 | Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 64 | 29-52 | Win | 100 | 91 h 13 m | Show | |
There are reasons why 11 of East Carolina's last 15 games have gone Over. The Pirates play up-tempo, have a good veteran QB in Holton Ahlers and a terrible defense that ranks 127th in yards allowed.  Tulane also is far better on offense than defense. The Green Wave average 36.5 points, but surrender 37.3 points a game.  This should be a fast-paced game where offenses totally dominate.Â
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10-02-21 | Cincinnati -126 v. Notre Dame | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 70 h 44 m | Show | |
Notre Dame a slight home 'dog to an American Conference team. Is this true?  It is. The oddsmaker is telling you Cincinnati is better than Notre Dame and I'm reinforcing that.  Notre Dame buried Wisconsin last week, but the Irish have struggled this season. They needed overtime to defeat Florida State and they struggled against Toledo and Purdue before pulling those victories out in the fourth quarter.  Cincinnati is way above those teams. The Bearcats have had ample rest and preparation time, too, for this matchup having been idle last week.  Notre Dame has been inconsistent running the ball and not had good pass protection. The Irish's young offensive line has yet to come together. That should prove fatal in this game. Jack Coan has put together a better-than-expected season for Notre Dame, but he's not a mobile quarterback.  Cincinnati QB Desmnond Ridder is. Ridder is the best QB the Irish have faced. He has a good runner in Jerome Ford and several skilled wide receivers.Â
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10-01-21 | Iowa -3 v. Maryland | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
Both Iowa and Maryland are 4-0. But there are reasons why Iowa is ranked fifth in the country in the latest AP Top 25 poll, while Maryland is outside of the top 25. The Hawkeyes are far superior defensively. The Hawkeyes are surrendering just 11 points a game, third-best in the nation. Maryland has played a weak schedule. The Terrapins haven't faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of Iowa.  Maryland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Big Ten games. Iowa has thrived in this role, a proven commodity with a 20-6 ATS mark the past 26 times as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes' last four road victories against Power 5 conference opponents all were by double-digits.  Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Big Ten in passing yards and completion percentage. But he's not as good as his brother, Tua. The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten with six interceptions. I would take their defense over Tagovailoa.  Iowa is the better coached team and owns huge edges on both lines of scrimmage.Â
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09-25-21 | Tennessee +20 v. Florida | 14-38 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
Florida played an outstanding game last week nearly upsetting Alabama as a two-touchdown 'dog losing, 31-29. That was a physical game and the Gators nearly tied it at 31-31 but couldn't convert on a 2-point run with 3:41 left. Florida had fought back from a 21-3 deficit. I don't know how much the Gators will have left for this matchup. Tennessee looks much more dangerous under Josh Heupel. The Volunteers are off to a 3-0 start while averaging 42.7 points. I'm fine with whoever the Volunteers play at quarterback whether it's Joe Milton or Hendon Hooker. Tennessee is averaging 223 yards rushing a game.  I'm not sure the oddsmaker has fully caught up to Tennessee. The combination of that and Florida being in somewhat of a letdown spot following the Alabama game, puts me on the Volunteers taking nearly three touchdowns.Â
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09-25-21 | Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5 | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
Arkansas State gives up the most yards per play of any team in the country. Tulsa is stepping way down in class having played Ohio State and Oklahoma State in its last two games. The Golden Hurricane produced more than 500 yards against Ohio State and had 25 first downs. They are going to put up a lot of points on Arkansas State. But the Red Wolves are going to put up their share of points, too. They are a fast-paced team with two decent QB's and three excellent wide receivers.  Arkansas State throws 62 percent of the time. Tulsa's defense is down from last year, no longer having superstar linebacker Zaven Collins.Â
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09-25-21 | Rutgers +20.5 v. Michigan | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
In Greg Schiano we trust. Schiano has turned around Rutgers making the Scarlet Knights respectable. Rutgers won three Big Ten games last season and nearly upset Michigan as an 11-point 'dog losing, 48-42, in triple overtime.  Michigan is off to a fast start with three blowout victories against inferior competition. But Rutgers also is 3-0 with victories versus Temple, Syracuse and Delaware. Rutgers has forced eight turnovers and come up with 14 sacks. Scarlet Knights QB Noah Vedral isn't doing anything foolish. He's completed 71.6 percent of his throws with four TD passes and no interceptions.  The Wolverines have a much bigger game on tap next week when they take on Wisconsin. That's a huge revenge game for Michigan, which lost by 38 points to the Badgers last year.  The Scarlet Knights definitely can stay within three TD's of the Wolverines.Â
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09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
Colorado State has quarterback issues. The Rams rank 107th in scoring at 22 points a game. They are not going to dent Iowa's elite defense, which gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the country. The Hawkeyes have accomplished this against respectable offenses, too, holding Iowa State to 17 points and Kent State to seven points during their last two games.  The Rams also are going to be missing their most dangerous wide receiver, Dante Wright. He isn't expected to play because of a knee injury.  Iowa lacks an explosive offense. The Hawkeyes are conservative and slow-paced. They play a grind-out style that keeps the clock moving. So it's not a fluke the Under has won 75 percent during the past 21 times Iowa has been a home favorite going 15-5-1.Â
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09-25-21 | Notre Dame +6.5 v. Wisconsin | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 41 m | Show | |
I don't think Jack Coan and Notre Dame are getting enough respect here. Note this matchup is at neutral site Soldier Field in Chicago, not in Madison, Wis.  Coan has erased the doubts I had about him entering the season completing nearly 64 percent of his passes for 828 yards and 8 TD's. Kyren Williams gives Notre Dame the best running back.  Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz entered the program with a lot of hype. He had a monster game against Illinois in his first start - and then has gone downhill since then. He has yet to throw a TD this season. Penn State held Wisconsin to just 10 points.  No way do I see Wisconsin being nearly a TD better than Notre Dame on a neutral field.Â
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09-24-21 | Liberty -6.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Liberty may be the best team you don't know. The Flames have covered their last 10 games and are led by QB Malik Willis, the Lamar Jackson of college football and likely high draft pick.  The Flames are 3-0 this season, which isn't surprising since they returned nearly all of their starters from last season's 10-1 team that upset Virginia Tech on the road and defeated Coastal Carolina in a bowl game.  Willis is a dynamic superstar, who has the highest passer rating in the country. He's accounted for 11 TD's and hasn't thrown an interception.  Syracuse is 2-1 beating Ohio and FCS foe Albany. The Orangemen lost, 17-7, to Rugers, a lower-tier Big Ten team. Syracuse is 5-16 in its last 21 games and has yet to demonstrate much of a passing attack. Liberty is very strong defensively returning nine starters from a top-25 defense of a year ago.  I see Liberty covering for the ninth straight time in a favorite's role.Â
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 56.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show |
The oddsmaker opened this total too low given the quality of QB's and Marshall's overrated defense.  The Thundering Herd averages 43.7 points while playing at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in total yards and No. 3 in passing yards behind Grant Wells.  Appalachian State is an above average offensive team. Chase Brice has looked good under center for the Mountaineers and Camerun Peoples is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. The Mountaineers are going against a Marshall defense that isn't as good as people thought after the Thundering Herd surrendered 42 points to East Carolina. |
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09-18-21 | Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State and Boise State aren't the offensive powerhouses of past seasons. Yet the perception is there that they are.  Oklahoma State has a banged-up wide receiver corps. The Cowboys' run-blocking hasn't been good. Boise State is averaging only 2.4 yards when it runs the ball. So the Broncos have trouble run-blocking, too. I'm also not sold on Hank Bachmneier as the next great Boise State QB.  The weather can get tricky in Boise. That very well could be the case here as there's a chance of rain with winds in the 15-25 mph range.Â
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
Seeing is believing. Auburn and Penn State have dominant defenses.  Auburn has played a pair of lightweights, but still only gave up 10 points to Alabama State and Akron. The Tigers have the pass rushers in T.D. Moultry and Marquis Banks to harass Sean Clifford, who regressed last season. The Nittany Lions don't have the outstanding running back either of previous years.  Likewise, Auburn isn't going to find things easy on offense operating against a tough Penn State defense that held its previous two opponents, Wisconsin and Ball State, to a combined 23 points. Auburn QB Bo Nixon has a history of playing worse on the road where he has more interceptions than touchdowns.Â
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
A major takeaway from Marshall opening the season 2-0 is Marshall's first-year head coach Charles Huff will run up a score. He's done it twice already. The Thunder Herd poured it on against Navy, 49-7, and buried North Carolina Central, 44-10.  Grant Wells has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Thunder Herd should roll again here. They have the offense and catch East Carolina off an excruciating defeat. The Pirates nearly upset South Carolina, but lost, 20-17, on a last-second field goal. The Pirates haven't been relevant since 2014. They are 16-43 the past six plus seasons.  I find Holton Ahlers to be one of the most overrated quarterbacks in college football. His numbers don't translate to his hype. |
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09-18-21 | Georgia Southern +24 v. Arkansas | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 53 m | Show | |
Can you say sandwich? That's what Arkansas finds itself in this week. Fresh off a 40-21 upset of Texas, the Razorbacks became ranked for the first time since 2016. They have a much bigger game on deck against unbeaten Texas A&M.  So the spot is right for Georgia Southern to hang inside of this large number. The Eagles run a triple-option attack. That means tons of running plays, which eats clock. Arkansas has yet to get its passing attack in gear. That means the Razorbacks also will be staying on the ground a lot, too.  The Eagles didn't look good against Florida Atlantic. But the Eagles also didn't have their starting QB, Justin Tomlin. He's back for this game. Georgia Southern also could get running back JD King back from injury.  Georgia Southern is better than how it played against Florida Atlantic. The Eagles defeated Louisiana Tech, 38-3, in the New Orleans Bowl last season. They have covered each of the last six times they've met a foe with a winning record.Â
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09-18-21 | Florida State +5 v. Wake Forest | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 34 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker is significantly downgrading Florida State after the 0-2 Seminoles lost to Notre Dame and Jacksonville State, an FCS program. OK, I get that. But Florida State lost each of those games on the final play and Jacksonville State isn't a bad team. The Seminoles may still have been down about their overtime loss to Notre Dame in their opener and were affected by that against Jacksonville State.  Both of Florida State's losses came at home. So maybe it's best the Seminoles go on the road where their focus could be sharper especially in need of a victory.  It's rare to see Wake Forest a favorite against Florida State. Nothing against Wake Forest, who are a solid team and well coached. But the Seminoles are the more athletic and talented team. I like both of Florida State's QB's, Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton. The Demon Deacons' 2-0 record should be looked at skeptically since it came against Norfolk State and Old Dominion.Â
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09-18-21 | Purdue v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 33 m | Show |
Notre Dame has been life and death to nip Florida State in overtime and hold off upset-minded Toledo. That has caused the linesmaker to underrated Notre Dame. The Irish are still an elite team, two levels higher than Purdue especially when at home.  Jack Coan has answered the big question at quarterback. He's completed nearly 70 percent of his throws for more than 600 yards with six TD passes. The Irish are much better at the other positions than they have shown so far.  If the Irish are vulnerable it's in stopping the run. Purdue, though, is a passing team. The Boilermakers don't run the ball well. Purdue is stepping way up in class after getting to play hapless Connecticut last week. The Boilermakers buried the Huskies, 49-0.Â
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09-18-21 | Boston College v. Temple +15 | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 58 m | Show | |
Temple can hang here given the season-ending wrist injury to Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec.  Boston College beat UMass, 45-28, last week behind senior QB Dennis Grosel, who is a big step down from Jurkovec, a pro prospect.   Temple is better than UMass and will be playing its home opener here. Boston College is 2-8 ATS following a victory.  The Owls were hammered, 61-14, by improved Rutgers. But that score was misleading. Rutgers only outgained Tempe by 104 yards. Temple came back from that loss to down Akron, 45-24, as a 6 1/2-point road favorite.Â
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 50.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 19 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech is showing signs of having one of the top defenses in the country. The Hokies held North Carolina and its superstar QB Sam Howell to 10 points and then held Middle Tennessee State to 14 points. The Hokies have permitted 703 yards combined, recorded nine sacks and have four interceptions.  West Virginia is no slouch defensively either. The Mountaineers are tough against the run. Virginia Tech is run-oriented. The Hokies rank 88th in yards per play despite playing less than stellar defenses.Â
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
Sparked by QB Brandon Peters, Illinois defeated Nebraska, 30-22, back on Aug. 28. Peters, however, was injured in that game. He didn't play in the Illini's last two games, losses to UTSA and Virginia.  Peters is back for this game. The Illini are being underrated here because of a bad 42-14 loss to Virginia.  I believe Illinois is better and tougher under new coach Bret Bielema. The Illini will prove it here. I'm not a fan of Maryland coach Mike Locksley. I especially want to go against Maryland as a road favorite in this point spread range. The Terrapins have covered only 27 percent of their last 26 away contests.  The Terrapins are 2-0, but their last game was against FCS foe Howard, a 62-0 win. So their statistics are skewed. This also is Maryland's first road game. |
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09-11-21 | Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 53.5 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 122 h 50 m | Show | |
Good defense, mediocre run-oriented offense. That's been Kentucky's style and stereotype for years. It's different this year, though, and the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught on yet.  The Wildcats' defense is down this season. Missouri has the offensive weapons to take advantage.  Missouri doesn't have a good defense, though. The Wildcats are playing at a faster tempo under new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, a disciple of Sean McVay as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Rams before coming to Kentucky.  Coen has the reputation as an offensive whiz with an emphasis on passing. Will Levis is a much better passer than the Wildcats have previously had in recent seasons.Â
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09-11-21 | NC State v. Mississippi State | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 13 m | Show |
The national media hasn't caught on yet, but the wise guys have. North Carolina State is extremely strong this season, probably the second-best team in the ACC. The Wolfpack have no glaring weaknesses. They have a strong, experienced offensive line. Excellent skill position talent and a shut-down caliber defense.  Mississippi State isn't in that class. The Bulldogs are way too prone to turning the ball over and making mistakes. Yes they have an exciting attack. But they're going to turn the ball over and commit dumb, costly mistakes. It's a typical Mike Leach team.  The Bulldogs had to outscore Louisiana Tech by 18 points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 35-34 opening week win as 20 1/2-point home favorites. That's what happens when you turn the ball over six times and commit 12 penalties as the Bulldogs did. That kind of sloppy performance certainly isn't going to cut it stepping way up in class against North Carolina State.  It's telling that Mississippi State couldn't control the line of scrimmage against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs don't have the defense to stop North Carolina State even if their offense cuts way back on the turnovers. |
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09-11-21 | South Alabama v. Bowling Green UNDER 51.5 | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 118 h 8 m | Show | |
South Alabama held Southern Mississippi to seven points and 259 yards of offense in a 31-7 opening victory last week. Yes, Southern Mississippi is bad although Frank Gore Jr. is one of the better running backs in Conference USA.  This defensive effort wasn't a fluke. The Jaguars' defense is improved under defensive-minded Kane Wommack, who did an excellent job as defensive coordinator at Indiana before coming to South Alabama.  Bowling Green is better defensively than on offense. The Falcons have scored 36 points in their last four games, including six against Tennessee last week. That's an average of nine points per game.  Both teams play at a slow pace, too.Â
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09-11-21 | UAB +24.5 v. Georgia | 7-56 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 18 m | Show | |
I regard UAB as the best team in Conference USA and one of the more unsung teams in the nation. The Blazers catch Georgia at a good time. The Bulldogs are in letdown and sandwich mode after a highly-satisfying, hard-fought, 10-3, win against Clemson last week. Georgia hosts South Carolina next week in its opening SEC matchup.  The Bulldogs also are dealing with COVID-19 issues. This may or may not have a bearing on team depth, but it's certainly not a plus for Georgia.  UAB took care of business in its opener shutting out Jacksonville State, 31-0. The Blazers defense showed why it is highly regarded holding Jacksonville State to 154 yards of total offense.  Tyler Johnson gives UAB a reliable QB and he's playing behind a very good offensive line.  So I don't see the Blazers getting totally outclassed here like the point spread suggests.Â
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09-11-21 | Buffalo v. Nebraska OVER 54.5 | 3-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
I get that the opponents of these two teams were Wagner and Fordham last week. Still, both Buffalo and Nebraska's offenses looked great. I'm betting these offenses stay that way this week. I trust the offenses more than the defenses.  The Bulls buried Wagner, 69-7, while Nebraska rolled past Fordham 52-7.  Cornhuskers QB Adrian Martinez played one of his best games, while the Bulls showed they can still run the ball piling up 312 yards on the ground after superstar runner Jaret Patterson moved on to the pros.Â
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09-11-21 | Rutgers -125 v. Syracuse | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 40 h 13 m | Show | |
I like what Greg Schiano is doing at Rutgers. The won/lost results haven't been there for the Scarlet Knights, but I see that changing this season after several strong recruiting classes.  Rutgers certainly looked good in destroying Temple, 61-14, last week. I understand Temple is weak, but the Owls were supposed to be improved this year.  The line is short here because Syracuse also was impressive during opening week, taking out Ohio, 29-9, as a short road 'dog. Now, though, the Orangemen go from a MAC team to a Big Ten opponent. Syracuse has failed to cover the past five times following a victory.  I've never been a fan of Syracuse QB Tommy DeVito and he doesn't have good offensive line protection either.  Rutgers has covered in its last five road games.Â
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76 | Top | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
The oddsmaker is envisioning a monster shootout with this large of a total. I understand the thinking. Both teams have excellent QB's and defenses that are not well respected.  I just don't agree with that high-of-a-score thinking. I like Mississippi QB Matt Corral a lot. He's a likely first-round draft pick. Louisville, however, isn't that bad on defense. The Cardinals were fourth in the ACC in yards allowed and return seven starters from that unit. Corral doesn't have monster talent Elijah Moore anymore. He's with the Jets now.  Mississippi's defense is much maligned. But when last spotted the Rebels were holding Indiana to 20 points in a 26-20 Outback Bowl victory. The Rebels are big in the trenches, have athletic linebackers and an experienced secondary. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is more dangerous as a runner. The Cardinals run more than they pass so that's going to eat clock. Cunningham lost his two best wide receivers from a year ago.  The Rebels will be without Lane Kiffin, an aggressive, offensive-minded coach. He tested positive for COVID-19 and has to miss the game. I regard that as a plus for the Under.Â
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
Florida State stands an excellent chance of getting its revenge for a 42-26 loss suffered on the road to Notre Dame last year.  The Irish lost considerable talent. It's going to take them time to gel. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Jack Coan, remembering how ineffective he was at Wisconsin before transferring to Notre Dame. I remain surprised that he's the Irish's starting QB. Notre Dame also is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Florida State has another talented, athletic and fast roster. The Seminoles should bounce back from last season's COVID-ravaged year. I like both of the Seminoles' QB's - Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton - better than Coan. Milton was a superstar throwing for 8,683 yards and 72 TD's in three years at Central Florida before suffering a serious knee injury in 2018. He's now ready to resume his career.  There's another situational edge to this matchup for Florida State. It's the Seminoles' first game since the passing of longtime and beloved coach Bobby Bowden. So the team should be sky high.Â
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09-04-21 | Baylor -14 v. Texas State | Top | 29-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
Baylor is coming off a disastrous COVID-shortened 2-7 season, which ruined Dave Aranda's first season in Waco. I'm looking for the Bears to be much better this year.  As bad as Baylor was last year the Bears still rate more than a two touchdown class difference against Texas State of the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats are 15-57 the last six years, including 2-10 last season under third-year coach Jake Spavital.  Aranda had been one of the most highly-respected defensive coordinators in college football before coming to Baylor. His defense, which returns 10 starters, shouldn't have problems against a weak Texas State offense that has been unsettled at QB and devoid of playmakers.  Texas State is bad on defense, too, giving up nearly 40 points a game last season and close to 500 yards.  The Bears have covered 71 percent of their last 15 away contests.  |
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09-04-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State OVER 52.5 | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech lacks the necessary pass rush to bother Mike Leach's Air Raid offense. Mississippi State should put up plenty of points having a better grasp of Leach's aggressive style of attack. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers had a 69 percent completion rate last season, which was the second-highest in FBS history for a freshman. He'll be even better this season as will Mississippi State backed by a veteran wide receiving corps.  Louisiana Tech will contribute its fair share to getting this total Over. Mississippi State gave up nearly 35 points per game last year. Louisiana Tech averaged nearly four TD's a game and fortified its offense with a number of transfers. Veteran Austin Kendall will be under center for Louisiana Tech. He learned his craft at Oklahoma where he backed up Baker Mayfield and then went to West Virginia where he passed for 2,153 yards and 14 TD's in 11 games.  |
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09-04-21 | Marshall v. Navy UNDER 47.5 | 49-7 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
Slow tempo, lots of running and strong defenses. That's a nice recipe for an Under, which should happen here.  Only 11 teams had a slower pace than Navy last season. The Midshipmen, with their triple-option attack, are going to have problems producing many points against Marshall. The Thundering Herd led the nation in scoring defense last season. They gave up less than 100 yards rushing per game. Navy averaged 4.3 points during its final three games last year.  Marshall plays slow, too, and lacks explosive weapons. Navy's defense came on strong last season surrendering only 14.3 points during its final three games. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
You might think this game should be a mismatch. After all, Northwestern went 7-2 and won a bowl game last season while Michigan State struggled going 2-5 with two games cancelled during Mel Tucker's first season.  You would think wrong, though. Northwestern lost much of its talent from last year, including QB Peyton Ramsey, star offensive lineman Rashawn Slater and its cornerback and receiving corps. Perhaps no major conference team lost as many players through graduation as Northwestern.   Michigan State, on the other hand, should be much improved. The Spartans are far more stable in Tucker's second year. Michigan State returns twice as many starters as Northwestern and has the talent at wide receiver to take advantage of Northwestern's inexperienced secondary.  Note, too, that one of Michigan State's victories last season was against Northwestern, 29-20. The Spartans also defeated the Wildcats, 31-10, at Northwestern in 2019.  |
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09-02-21 | Boise State v. Central Florida -5.5 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Buckle your seat belt because this is going to be a fast ride with these two teams. Both have new head coaches. The belief here is that Central Florida has more reliable firepower than Boise State at this early stage.  Making a long trip to play in the heat and humidity of Florida works against Boise State, too.  Central Florida coach Gus Malzahn was let go at Auburn despite never finishing below .500 in eight seasons. Malzahn is an offensive whiz. UCF has averaged more than 40 points per game in each of the last four seasons. The Knights have one of the top QB's in the country, Dillon Gabriel. He threw for 3,570 yards with a 32-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio in 10 games last season.  The Broncos have a new coach, Andy Avalos, and a new offensive coordinator, Tim Plough. Avalos is unproven. Malzahn isn't.Â
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09-01-21 | UAB v. Jacksonville State +16.5 | Top | 31-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This actually should be a good game as these are two talented teams. UAB has the better defense and more depth, but Jacksonville State is a dangerous opponent having made the FCS playoffs six of the past seven years. The Gamecocks have the necessary run defense and offensive firepower to keep things close the entire game.  Jacksonville State QB Zerrick Cooper is either first or second in school history in passing TD's, passing yards and total offensive yards. The Gamecocks have their entire offensive line intact and feature solid skill position talent around Cooper.  UAB has a strong team, too. But the Blazers no longer have their all-time leading rusher, Spencer Brown, and they lost 50 percent of their receiving production from the past two seasons.  I'm not anti-UAB here. I just think Jacksonville State is being underrated lacking the name recognition being an FCS school.Â
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08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 68.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 100 h 49 m | Show |
Both teams improved defensively last season and should be even better this year.  Hawaii has all of its key defensive starters back and added three potential starting transfers, including two in the secondary. The Rainbow Warriors surrendered an average of 27.6 points a game, their lowest figure in seven years. UCLA's offense could get off to a slow start since QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed the first few fall practices. UCLA's defense gave up 30.7 points a game last season, down from the 34 points they allowed per game during the previous two seasons. The Bruins return 10 defensive starters. Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro is decent, but he's nothing great especially compared to previous star Rainbow Warrior QB's.Â
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