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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-22-14 | LSU v. Kentucky -11.5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
LSU is garbage on the road and faces a revenge-minded Kentucky team that plays far better at home and is in good form.
Kentucky has won five of six since losing 87-82 on the road to LSU. The Wildcats' only loss during this span was to second-ranked Florida. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS the past six times they've been double-digit home favorites this season. LSU is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight road games versus opponents with a winning home mark. The Tigers have lost and failed to cover in their last three away matchups falling to Arkansas, Texas A&M and Georgia during this span by an average losing margin of 10.6 points. Kentucky is much stronger than those teams. The Wildcats hold a huge rebounding edge. I see a fast-paced Kentucky offense pouring in points and taking advantage of missed shots with second and third chances. |
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02-20-14 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Purdue | Top | 94-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
Tom Izzo has been cracking the whip hard since the Spartans suffered a shocking home loss this past Sunday to Nebraska.
The Spartans have a huge game this Sunday against arch-rival Michigan, but that matchup will lose some of its luster if Michigan State loses this game to Purdue. It's something Izzo and his well-coached players are well aware of. While Michigan State is off a bad loss, Purdue is off its best win of the season, an 18-point victory against Indiana. The Boilermakers are fat and happy now. They aren't going to the NCAA Tournament. They are 5-7 in the Big Ten, 2-5 in their last seven games and have failed to cover in six of their past seven home contests. The Spartans need this game to set up their showdown for first place in the Big Ten with Michigan. Izzo is too good of a coach to have his team overlook the Boilermakers, especially off a terrible loss. The 21-5 Spartans have won their following game after each of their first four losses. Izzo has had to deal with injuries but expects to have senior guard Keith Appling available. The Spartans have handled Purdue in the past winning the last five meetings. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Mackey Arena. Michigan State has won 10 of its 12 road contests while covering seven of the past eight times away from East Lansing. |
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02-19-14 | Arizona State v. Colorado -3.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Colorado has gotten back on track after losing star guard Spencer Dinwiddie. The Buffaloes have won of their last five and catch Arizona State in a bad situational spot.
The Sun Devils are on the road after a thrilling 69-66 double-overtime home win against in-state rival and No. 4 ranked Arizona this past Friday. Arizona State has lost and failed to cover in three of its last four road Pac-12 games. Colorado, firmly on the bubble, is at home where it is 15-1 this season. |
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02-18-14 | South Florida +23 v. Louisville | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Yes, South Florida is terrible. But this is a real letdown spot for fifth-ranked Louisville and the line is inflated.
The Cardinals are off a couple of easy victories last week, including destroying Rutgers 102-54 this past Saturday. Louisville has failed to cover the past eight times after scoring 100 points in its previous game. The Cardinals have a far bigger game on deck this Saturday when they travel to Cincinnati to meet the AAC-leading Bearcats, who they trail by 1 1/2 games. South Florida plays respectable defense, can slow the pace down and has revenge for an embarrassing 39-point home loss to Louisville. |
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02-17-14 | NC-Wilmington v. William & Mary -10 | Top | 70-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
There is a clear class difference here. William & Mary is one of the three best teams in the Colonial Athletic Association while North Carolina-Wilmington is the worst team in the league. The Seahawks are 2-15 in their last 17 CAA contests. They have been especially bad on the road losing 13 of 16 times.
But is William & Mary good enough to cover a double-digit point spread against the Seahawks? I believe the answer is yes. The Tribe is off a very disappointing 85-70 home loss to Towson two days ago. That was their first home game back after three consecutive road matchups, a difficult situational spot. William & Mary has covered the past six times following a straight-up defeat. The Tribe also is 9-1 ATS when facing a below .500 opponent. The Tribe shot 36 percent from 3-point range in the loss to Towson going 9-for-25. The Tribe' 3-point shooting also was off in their first meeting against North Carolina-Wilmington. William & Mary missed 23 of 30 shots from beyond the arch in that game for 30.4 percent. Yet it still won 54-50 on the road although the Seahawks had a chance to tie but missed an inside shot with 10 seconds left. William & Mary ranks 19th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.6. They are 53rd in field goal percentage. The Tribe figures to shoot better this time around and won't lack for motivation after the stinging Towson loss from two days ago. The Seahawks aren't good enough to stay with the Tribe on the road if William & Mary plays well. |
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02-16-14 | Wisconsin +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
After a rough 1-5 patch, Wisconsin is turning things around winning three in a row. The last two victories by the Badgers have come against Michigan State and Minnesota at home.
I see the Badgers continuing to salvage their season as they take to the road. Wisconsin is playing much better than four weeks ago when it lost 77-70 to Michigan at home. The Wolverines shot 54.7 percent from the floor in that win, including 53.8 percent from 3-point range. The Badgers have gone back to their tough, physical aggressive defensive approach that has been their trademark under Bo Ryan, a coach I regard as one of the best in the country. The underdog has covered the past five times in this series. Michigan hasn't beaten Wisconsin twice during the regular season since 1998 and Wisconsin has covered five of its last seven road matchups. |
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02-15-14 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina -3.5 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Matchup-wise and situation-wise this one squarely lines up on the side of North Carolina.
Pittsburg is banged-up, weary and mentally down after nearly upsetting unbeaten Syracuse this past Wednesday. The Orangemen pulled out the two-point victory when Tyler Ennis hit a long 3-pointer at the buzzer. That was in Pittsburgh. Now the Panthers face even a tougher assignment - cover a short number at North Carolina against the red-hot and well-rested Tar Heels. North Carolina is 6-1 in its last seven games, playing its finest ball of the season. The Tar Heels have had ample time to rest and game plan, too, having been idle for a week. This is just their second game in 10 days as their matchup this past Wednesday against Duke was postponed due to weather conditions. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is in action for the fourth time in 10 days and could be missing two key players - Lamar Patterson and Talib Zanna. They were both injured against Syracuse. Patterson, who leads the Panthers in scoring and assists, suffered a thumb injury. Zanna, who leads the Panthers in rebounding, blocks and shooting percentage, suffered an ankle injury. Not having these two, or if they are limited, really would hurt the Panthers. The Tar Heels have an excellent point guard in Marcus Paige and they lead the ACC in rebounding margin. The Panthers outrebounded Syracuse, but prior to that had not been rebounding well in recent games. |
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02-14-14 | Pennsylvania v. Yale -9 | Top | 54-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Yale is far superior to Penn especially at home. The Quakers are 1-8 on the road, 3-5 ATS. They have lost their last two Ivy League road games by a combined 39 points and are 3-7 ATS during their past 10 visits to Yale.
Yale is playing its best ball of the season winning four in a row, including beating Harvard, 74-67, last weekend as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog. The Bulldogs have covered seven of their last nine conference matchups. The line is lower than I thought probably because Penn is off a home win against Columbia. The Quakers, though, are 5-17-1 ATS following a victory. |
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02-13-14 | Arkansas v. Missouri -5 | Top | 85-86 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
This is a pivotal game for both teams, but Missouri has a strong situational edge returning home after three consecutive road losses, the first time that's happened under Frank Haith.
Arkansas is strong at home, weak on the road. The Razorbacks are 1-9 away from home. They have covered less than 30 percent of their last 76 road matchups and are 2-7 ATS when going against foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Razorbacks are 3-22 on the road and 3-19 versus SEC teams on the road. The only SEC teams the Razorbacks have beaten on the road during this span are Vanderbilt and Auburn. Missouri beat the Razorbacks in Arkansas, 77-75, on Jan. 28. It was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Tigers have covered against Arkansas. The Tigers are guard-oriented, but a key to their win was outrebounding the Razorbacks by 16. Arkansas' lack of rebounding is a real negative especially on the road. |
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02-12-14 | Kentucky v. Auburn +7.5 | Top | 64-56 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Kentucky isn't the same on the road and has a huge look-ahead game on Saturday against fourth-ranked Florida.
The Wildcats have a losing straight-up record in true road matchups this season. They are 5-15-2 ATS during their past 22 road contests. Auburn has covered five of its past six home games. The Tigers also have covered five of the last six in the series. Auburn is coming on after a slow start, due in part to a very strong schedule. The Tigers are playing much better now winning their past three games. Auburn does face a strong challenge in the frontcourt, but has a tremendous guard in senior Chris Denson, who leads the SEC in scoring at 20.2 points per game. He's been red-hot shooting 56.7 percent from the field during his last four games. |
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02-11-14 | Southern Illinois +17 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Unbeaten Wichita State returns home after a tough two-game road swing having achieved victories against Indiana State and Northern Iowa. The Shockers hold a commanding three-game lead in the Missouri Valley Conference with six matchups remaining.
After this matchup the Shockers go back on the road for their next two games. The Shockers rolled past the Salukis, 82-67, in the first meeting. That was Southern Illinois' opening conference game of the season. I see Wichita State in a letdown spot and Southern Illinois being much improved since that first loss to the Shockers. The Salukis have made several lineup changes since then. They are 5-2 during their past seven conference games. The Salukis have gotten a lift from freshmen Tyler Smithpeters and Bola Olaniyan. Those two logged a combined four minutes against Wichita State in the first meeting. Southern Illinois enters this matchup playing its best ball having won four in a row -three of them coming by 16 or more points - while connecting on 16 of 30 3-pointers during its last two games. The Salukis have covered in eight of their last 11 trips to Wichita State. They played the Shockers extremely tough last season winning at home by two as 10-point 'dogs and losing by six at Koch Arena last season. |
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02-10-14 | Kansas v. Kansas State +4 | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Kansas State is a whole different team when playing at home capable of beating any team in the country. The Wildcats have proven that winning eight of the past 11 times against quality foes at Bramlage Coliseum.
The Wildcats not only were sharp two days ago in a 74-57 home win against Texas, but none of their starters were too taxed as nobody played more than 30 minutes. Kansas has great talent, but is inexperienced and not used to playing in this type of road setting. Wildcats freshman guard Marcus Foster has been playing great scoring 57 points during the last two games. Kansas stopped him in the team's first meeting this season holding him to seven points on 3-of-12 shooting from the floor. Look for Foster to have a much better game this time around. Kansas State has the necessary guard pressure to force turnovers and hit their perimeter shots to avoid the Jayhawks' tall front line. |
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02-09-14 | Temple v. Houston -2.5 | Top | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Both of these teams are struggling, but the Cougars' last five losses have been against brutal competition - Louisville, at Memphis, SMU, at Rutgers and at UConn.
Now the Cougars step down in class and should get the job done against a Temple squad that lost too much from last season and is 1-10 in its last 11 games. The Owls also are 2-7 ATS the past nine times they've played a foe with a losing mark. |
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02-06-14 | IUPU Ft Wayne +5 v. South Dakota State | Top | 51-79 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
IPFW of Fort Wayne Indiana is one of those under-the-radar teams that has been a solid money-maker. The Mastodons are leading the Summit League with a 6-1 mark and have covered 12 of their last 16 games.
The Mastodons are getting points at South Dakota State, a team they are better than. The Mastodons defeated the Jackrabbits by seven points at home last month. South Dakota State is 12-10. IPFW Fort Wayne is 18-6. The Mastodons have covered 78 percent of their last 29 games. They are 10-4-1 ATS during their last 15 road contests. The Jackrabbits outscore their opponents by only one point per game when playing at home. They are 1-7-1 ATS the last nine times when going against an opponent with a winning record. Sometimes dealing with under-the-radar type matchups that look too good often can backfire. That shouldn't be the case here. Sources tell me the Mastodons are much better than South Dakota State. So taking this many points makes sense. |
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02-05-14 | Stanford +4 v. California | Top | 80-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
All games are big in the very competitive Pac-12, but Cal not only has to contend with a solid Stanford club but refocus after its historic upset of top-ranked Arizona this past Saturday.
Stanford is a blue-collar team that usually plays with a great deal of intelligence. The Cardinal has a solid starting five with Chasson Randle, Dwight Powell, Josh Huestis, Anthony Brown and much improved center Stefan Nastic. The Cardinal lost 69-62 to Cal in its Pac-12 opener on Jan. 2. The Cardinal was hurt by Nastic and Powell, who leads the team in assists and steals, fouling out. This would be a very close game anyways, but with Cal's focus under question it's enough to make Stanford a strong play. |
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02-03-14 | South Alabama +13 v. Georgia State | Top | 65-85 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This matchup was originally scheduled for last Thursday but was postponed until today because of bad weather conditions in the greater Atlanta area.
It's a break for the underdog Jaguars. They know Georgia State having lost to them a month ago by 10 points. They've had more time now to prepare. It's a bigger matchup for South Alabama, which needs to get its season turned around in order to be one of the eight teams to qualify for the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. South Alabama has yet to win on the road, but Georgia State is 1-6 in its last seven home games. The Panthers are on cruise control having won 12 in a row, leading the Sun Belt with an 8-0 league mark. Georgia State has a much bigger game on deck traveling to Arkansas Little-Rock on Thursday. South Alabama has the talent level to hang within double digits. The Jaguars rank first in the Sun Belt in defensive field goal percentage. They should have a good game plan in place. The key is playing hard, which the Jaguars should do with a revenge motive, catching Georgia State in a look-ahead spot and knowing that right now they would be one of two Sun Belt teams that wouldn't make the conference tournament. |
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02-02-14 | UCLA -4.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
There are a lot of trends going against Oregon State in this matchup and I think they make sense.
UCLA should play better than it did during a 70-68 Thursday victory against Oregon. Oregon State nipped Southern Cal in overtime on Thursday. The Beavers are 5-12-1 ATS following a victory. I am not a fan of Oregon State coach Craig Robinson. The Bruins have owned the Beavers going 15-5-1 ATS in the series and are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight visits to Oregon State. The Bruins also have covered during their past six games on Sunday. |
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02-01-14 | Providence -4.5 v. DePaul | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
DePaul is too short-handed to hang with Providence, which is in a revenge spot and off a bad game. The Blue Demons' leading scorer Cleveland Melvin still is under suspension and star rookie point guard Billy Garrett Jr. also is out. This should mean a big game for the Friars' star point guard Bryce Cotton.
DePaul knocked off the Friars in Providence last season. However, the Friars have won three of their last four at DePaul. The Blue Demons are off losses to Villanova, Xavier and Seton Hall by a combined 53 points. The Blue Demons also have failed to cover in 17 of their last 23 home contests and 5-11 ATS following a straight-up loss. |
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01-29-14 | Northwestern +17 v. Wisconsin | Top | 65-56 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
Northwestern has gotten a lot better since losing 76-49 to Wisconsin in its Big Ten opener on Jan. 2. The Wildcats have gone 3-4 since then, including knocking off Indiana.
Northwestern's four losses during this span have come to Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa twice - all teams ranked in the top 20. The Wildcats are high-energy, smart and play strong defense. They are well-coached under first-year coach Chris Collins. Northwestern is allowing just 53.2 points per game in its last four games. That includes a 76-50 loss to Iowa in its last game. The Wildcats got hammered in the second half because they wore down due to Iowa's superior depth. Wisconsin doesn't have a strong bench. The Badgers are also in a look-ahead spot. Wisconsin just ended its three-game losing streak with an important road win against Purdue and hosts Ohio State on Saturday. Wisconsin is 5-12 ATS during its past 17 home games versus a foe with a losing road record. The Wildcats play a very slow tempo. They can frustrate the Badgers while also killing large chunks of the clock, which is great for such a big underdog. |
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01-28-14 | Missouri v. Arkansas -5.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Missouri has never won at Arkansas in six career tries. The Tigers are off a win against South Carolina, but have failed to cover the past six times following a win.
The Tigers don't generate enough ball movement to hang close against Arkansas in one of the toughest road venues in the country. The Tigers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games and 3-10-1 ATS during their past 14 away matchups against foes with a winning home mark. Arkansas leads the SEC in scoring and assists per game at 16.2. Bobby Portis can cause problems for Missouri inside. Arkansas also is the more balanced team. |
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01-20-14 | Creighton +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 96-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
Too many points for Villanova to be laying to such a quality opponent. The Blue Jays are underpriced after suffering an 81-68 road loss to Providence.
Prior to that, the Blue Jays had won 10 in a row. They lead the nation in 3-point shooting and are second in assists. They also have superstar big man Doug McDermott. |
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01-16-14 | UCLA +2 v. Colorado | Top | 69-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
UCLA's only loss in its last five games came to unbeaten No. 1 ranked Arizona by four points. The Bruins are off an impressive 15-point win against Arizona State this past Sunday and catch Colorado when the Buffaloes are in a vulnerable position.
Colorado was blown out at Washington in its last game. Worse, the Buffaloes lost star point guard Spencer Dimwiddie for the season with a knee injury. Without their leading scorer and assists leader, the Buffaloes committed 20 turnovers and none of their players had more than one assist against the Huskies once Dimwiddie went out of the game. Colorado is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven Pac-12 games. |
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01-14-14 | Kentucky v. Arkansas +1 | Top | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Arkansas walloped Kentucky at home last season, 73-60, and I see the Razorbacks doing it again this season. The home/road splits clearly indicate this.
Arkansas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home contests. The Razorbacks average nearly 16 more points per game at home than on the road Kentucky is 1-9-2 ATS during its past 12 road matchups and have historically struggled in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks had won 23 straight at Bud Walton Arena until losing in overtime to 10th-ranked Florida this past Saturday. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in assists. They have three solid guards. Arkansas is averaging more than 94 points a game during its last four home contests. Arkansas also has the upfront defense to contain Kentucky star Julius Randle. |
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01-09-14 | Pepperdine +15.5 v. BYU | Top | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
These two teams met just 10 days ago and Pepperdine knocked off BYU, 80-74.
Revenge means something, but this line is too out of whack especially since the Cougars might be without star freshman forward Eric Mika, who is averaging 16 points and six boards per game. He suffered a hip bruise in BYU's last game, an 87-53 win against San Diego. BYU has failed to cover 22 of the last 29 times when winning its previous game by more than 20 points. Pepperdine is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. The Wave can take advantage of Mika's possible absence with big men Stacy Davis and Brendan Lane. |
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12-20-13 | Nebraska-Omaha +16 v. Minnesota | Top | 79-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a funny situational spot for Minnesota. The Gophers haven't played in 10 days and won't play for another week after this game. So some rust is expected. Motivation could lack, too.
Nebraska-Omaha shouldn't lack for motivation having four players on its team from Minnesota, which is three more than the Gophers have. The Mavericks have proven pesky in winning five in a row while covering in five of their last six non-conference games. The Mavericks upset Nevada six days ago. They lost to UNLV by 3, Iowa by 8 and Drake by 8. All of those games were on the road. The Mavericks can score points in bunches. They average 84.5 points a game, which is 22nd best in the country. |
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11-18-13 | Southern Methodist v. Arkansas -3.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Both teams are 2-0 but the spot favors Arkansas. The Razorbacks have won 16 in a row at Bud Walton Arena. Their last home loss came against powerful Syracuse. Arkansas has won 36 straight at home against unranked non-conference opponents.
The Razorbacks have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. They have won by 11 or more points in their last four home games. SMU is coming off a satisfying revenge win against Rhode Island in its first home game back at renovated Moody Coliseum. The Mustangs are 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times when playing an opponent with a winning mark. Larry Brown is trying to upgrade the Mustangs' talent level as they make the switch from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference. The Mustangs are in transition at this very early point of the season and must deal with a tough road venue and Arkansas coach Mike Anderson's "40 Minutes of Hell" system that relies on heavy full-court pressure. |
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For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.