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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-15-16 | CS Bakersfield +17.5 v. Arizona | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Cal State Bakersfield is underrated and getting too many points just based on playing a Pac-12 opponent. The Roadrunners are a tough, physical defensive team. They won the WAC Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament last year giving Oklahoma problems in the first round. |
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03-29-16 | Oakland -6.5 v. E Tennessee State | Top | 104-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
I have no doubt Oakland is superior to East Tennessee State. My hesitation about backing Oakland in this Vegas 16 Tournament - the most minor of all the post-season  tournaments - is how motivated will the Golden Grizzlies be after having their sights set on reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. |
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03-25-16 | Gonzaga -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
These two were long shots entering the NCAA Tournament, but here they are in the Sweet 16. I believe Gonzaga is for real while Syracuse is a tier lower than the Bulldogs catching several breaks to reach this point. |
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03-20-16 | Northern Iowa +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Northern Iowa has a lot of things you look for in an underdog at this point of the season: The Panthers have NCAA Tournament experience, are well-coached, are hot with 13 wins in their last 14 games (12-1-1 ATS), rank 12th in the country defensively, rank 17th in free throw percentage and can make 3-pointers. They also have beaten a number of top teams, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State twice. Yet the Panthers are downgraded because they are a mid-major and because of their miraculous 75-72 first-round upset victory against Texas when Paul Jesperson hit a buzz-beater from beyond half court. Perhaps the Panthers don't have the fancy talent that some of the major conference teams have. But there are intangibles at work here. Ben Jacobson has been Northern Iowa's coach the past 10 seasons - and he's not going anywhere. He has honed an effective, close-knit system with excellent team work and chemistry. The Panthers are not about individuals. They fit well into a team structure. This might sound like a cliche, but teamwork can't be underestimated with an underdog at this late point of the season. Texas A&M had not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2011 until this season. The Aggies were lucky to meet Green Bay in the first round, a team that doesn't play good defense at this high level. Northern Iowa holds foes to 63.2 points a game. The Panthers are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-17-16 | Yale v. Baylor -5 | Top | 79-75 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
The monster difference between the Big 12 - arguably the best conference in the nation - and the Ivy League doesn't merit this short of a spread. |
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03-15-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne +11.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 55-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne is well rested and excited about making its first NIT appearance since elevating to Division I status 16 years ago. |
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03-11-16 | Colorado State v. Fresno State -3 | Top | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Both teams have strong offenses, but Fresno State is better defensively and is the fresher team. The Bulldogs also are peaking at the right time winning nine of their past 10, including their last seven games. |
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03-08-16 | Pennsylvania +16 v. Princeton | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
Penn has depth and is much improved from last season. The Quakers nearly upset Princeton as seven-point home 'dogs losing 73-71 in overtime back in January. The Quakers blew an 11-point lead with four minutes left. |
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03-06-16 | Wisconsin +6 v. Purdue | Top | 80-91 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Yes, Purdue is tough at home. But the oddsmaker isn't giving enough respect to Wisconsin with a line this high. The Badgers have won 11 of their last 12 games - losing only to Michigan State during this span - while going 10-2 ATS. |
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03-01-16 | Kentucky -3.5 v. Florida | Top | 88-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Kentucky has much to prove on the road. I see the Wildcats bouncing back following a 12-point road loss to Vanderbilt by solidly defeating fading Florida, which has dropped three in a row and is 0-4 in its last four home games. |
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02-28-16 | Colorado State +3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 80-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Colorado State defeated Nevada Reno, 76-67, as three-point home favorites three weeks ago. Nevada Reno's star point guard Marquez Coleman played 33 minutes in that game. Colorado State, which often lives and dies with the 3-pointer, missed 24 of 32 from 3-point range in that game. The Rams did get 26 more rebounds than the Wolf Pack. |
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02-27-16 | Montana +2.5 v. Weber State | Top | 54-60 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
Montana is in position to grab its first regular-season win at Weber State since 2004. Weber State heavily relies on guard Jeremy Senglin and big man Joel Bolomboy. The duo has  accounted for 46 percent of the Wildcats' scoring. However, the 6-foot-9 inch Bolomboy suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game and the senior power forward is not expected to play. |
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02-24-16 | Tennessee v. South Carolina -8.5 | Top | 58-84 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
 South Carolina is a dominant 14-1 at home this season. The Gamecocks have covered 14 of their last 17 at home, including going 9-3 ATS this season. |
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02-23-16 | UNLV v. Boise State -6.5 | Top | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
First off, UNLV isn't very good on the road. The Rebels are 2-8 in true away contests this season. They've failed to cover in their last four road matchups. |
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02-20-16 | Hawaii v. UC-Irvine -2.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
This is a battle for first place in the Big West Conference and one of Irvine's biggest home games ever. A rare sellout crowd is expected. |
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02-17-16 | Houston -5 v. Tulane | Top | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Tulane is coming off a 94-87 overtime home win against Memphis as seven-point 'dogs. Does this suddenly make the Green Wave a good team? No. Tulane is six games under .500 on the season and just 3-10 in the Atlantic Athletic Conference despite that victory. The Green Wave are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times they have gone against an opponent with a winning record. |
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02-16-16 | Ball State v. Miami (OH) +2.5 | Top | 73-56 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Ball State is favored on the road for the first time since its opening away matchup back on Nov. 13 against Bradley, who beat the Cardinals, 54-53. The Red Hawks not only have revenge motivation but focus shouldn't be a problem either after they were embarrassed, 93-49, on the road against Toledo this past Saturday. Prior to that the Red Hawks had won and covered three of four, including the past two two. |
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02-15-16 | Oakland -1 v. Wright State | Top | 89-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
At stake here is sole possession of second place in the Horizon League, which means a lot because the top two seeds in this conference tournament draw double byes. |
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02-14-16 | Bradley +18.5 v. Illinois State | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Illinois State is coming off three wins and covers, the last two as double-digit 'dog winners against MIssouri Valley Conference leader Wichita State at home - Â coming from 18 points down to do it - and winning at Evansville this past Thursday. The victory against Evansville moved Illinois State into second place in the league. Now the Redbirds get a well deserved home rest stop against Bradley, which is second-to-last in the conference. |
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02-13-16 | CS-Northridge +11 v. UC-Irvine | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Cal-Northridge can't match Cal-Irvine's defense, but the Matadors average more points, shoot better from the floor and have a far better free throw percentage than Irvine. |
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02-04-16 | Texas State +8 v. Georgia State | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
This is more than just a case of taking points in a matchup of two bad Sun Belt Conference teams. Both schools ranked in the top 25 in defense, but lack height and struggle to score while playing at a slow pace. |
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01-30-16 | New Mexico v. Boise State -5.5 | Top | 88-83 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Boise State is 10-1 at home. New Mexico is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road contests, 2-8 ATS when playing against a home opponent with a winning record. |
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01-28-16 | VMI v. Mercer -13.5 | Top | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Mercer is frustrated after two straight road overtime losses. The Bears can take advantage of their angry mood being in a kill spot at home against overmatched VMI, which is 6-12 SU and 2-9 ATS. The Keydets have failed to cover during their last seven road games and nine of their past 10 away matchups. VMI's last four road losses have been by an average of 25.5 points. Â |
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01-23-16 | Utah State v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
San Diego State has won and covered the past five in this series. Look for that string to continue. The Aztecs have won by an average of 17.5 points the past two times hosting Utah State - and that was when the Aggies had Stew Morrill coaching them. |
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01-21-16 | Gonzaga +3 v. St. Mary's | Top | 67-70 | Push | 0 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
Picked to finish fourth in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary's has been one of the surprise teams going 15-2 despite losing its five senior starters and 80 percent of its scoring and rebounding from last season's 21-10 team. |
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01-12-16 | New Mexico +6 v. UNLV | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
A disappointing 0-3 start in Mountain West Conference action has caused a lot of upheaval at UNLV. The school fired head coach David Rice two days ago. This will be he Rebels' first game under interim coach Todd Simon, who is not expected to get the permanent job. |
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01-08-16 | Valparaiso v. Oakland +2.5 | Top | 84-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Valparaiso and Oakland were picked to be the top two teams in the Horizon League this season in the preseason poll. Now they get together in this nationally televised matchup on ESPN2. |
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01-07-16 | Michigan v. Purdue -7.5 | Top | 70-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
I'm fine with Purdue even if Michigan's senior star guard Caris LaVert is going to play. He's the Wolverines' best player leading them in scoring, rebounding and assists. He injured his left leg two games ago and missed Michigan's last game this past Saturday. The Wolverines were able to overcome his absence by blowing out Penn State at home. |
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01-06-16 | Duke v. Wake Forest +8 | Top | 91-75 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Wake Forest certainly can hang in against Duke given its depth and being battle tested. Duke's depth is down with Amile Jefferson out. The Blue Devils are down to about a six-man rotation while Wake Forest can go 11 deep. |
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01-01-16 | Colorado +8 v. California | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Nothing against California. I have great respect for the talent on the Golden Bears. But Colorado is very good, too. The Buffaloes are 11-2 and are as good as many envisioned two seasons ago. The respect, lost last season, hasn't caught to them yet providing value for this Pac-12 opener. |
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12-21-15 | Santa Clara +4.5 v. Pacific | Top | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Pacific is trying to unravel itself from a major mess involving academic misconduct. The fallout being the Tigers are 1-8 with their head coach and an assistant coach suspended indefinitely. There isn't a lot of incentive either even though this is their West Coast Conference opener as the Tigers are under a postseason ban as part of the sanctions. |
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12-19-15 | New Mexico State +4 v. UTEP | Top | 73-53 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
New Mexico State had no problem with Texas El-Paso just 17 days ago, winning 73-59 at home. The Miners couldn't stop Pascal Siakam, who scored 24 points and pulled down 23 rebounds. |
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12-12-15 | UCLA +8 v. Gonzaga | Top | 71-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Gonzaga is far from in peak shape. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. They lost to Arizona, 68-63, at home last Saturday and just nipped Montana, 61-58, at home this past Tuesday as 17 1/2-point favorites. |
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12-09-15 | Long Beach State +4 v. Pepperdine | Top | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
I believe the wrong team is favored. Both teams are .500, but Long Beach State has played a far more difficult schedule, one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. That's going to help the 49ers here. |
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11-16-15 | San Diego State v. Utah -5 | Top | 76-81 | Push | 0 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Power-ratings-wise I have Utah favored by more than this line.  Look for San Diego State to have problems containing Utah center Jakob Poeltl. The Utes are going to be tough especially with the improvement made by sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma. |
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11-13-15 | Rice v. California -15.5 | Top | 65-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
California has won its last nine opening games. That streak should easily continue against Rice. |
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04-04-15 | Michigan State v. Duke -5.5 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
A lot has changed since Duke defeated Michigan State by 10 points back on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic. |
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03-27-15 | NC State +3 v. Louisville | Top | 65-75 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones. |
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03-25-15 | Murray State +2 v. Old Dominion | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark. |
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03-24-15 | Miami (FL) v. Richmond -2 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season. Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts. The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage. The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover. |
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03-23-15 | Illinois State +3.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 49-50 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player. |
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03-22-15 | Michigan State v. Virginia -5 | Top | 60-54 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country. |
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03-20-15 | Dayton v. Providence -3 | Top | 66-53 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton. |
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03-18-15 | Gardner-Webb +12 v. Colorado | Top | 78-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Gardner-Webb is well-coached and battled-tested. The Runnin' Bulldogs defeated Purdue on the road and defeated Clemson at a neutral site. They have covered in 11 of their last 16 road games. They also are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-league games. |
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03-14-15 | Hawaii v. Cal-Irvine -2 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
UC Irvine is ready to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Anteaters won the Big West last season by fell in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Lesson learned. They are primed and ready this time. They also draw Hawaii, fresh off an upset of regular-season champion UC Davis. |
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03-12-15 | Chicago State v. Seattle -5.5 | Top | 45-49 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
Seattle was 2-0 versus Chicago State during the regular season winning 57-31 at home and 75-67 on the road. This matchup is in Las Vegas. |
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03-11-15 | Colorado -3 v. Oregon State | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Oregon State was a nice story during the first half of the season. But the Beavers are shot now down to seven scholarship players and losing while failing to cover in six of their last seven games. |
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03-10-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -2.5 | Top | 44-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
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03-07-15 | Connecticut v. Temple -3 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The defending champion Huskies don't have it this season. That was made evident after they suffered a grueling 54-53 home loss to Memphis just two days ago. Memphis won despite not having its leading scorer, Austin Nichols. |
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03-06-15 | Utah v. Washington State +13 | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Utah is nothing special on the road. The Utes are just 6-5 away from home. Washington State has been keeping its last few games close as five points or less has been the winning margin during its past three games. |
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03-04-15 | Colorado State -7.5 v. Nevada | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Colorado State 98, Nevada 42. That was the score of the first meeting. It was the largest margin of victory in a Mountain West Conference game. And the Rams did this without having their leading scorer and rebounder, J.J. Avila. |
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03-01-15 | Oregon State v. California -3 | Top | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The bloom is off Oregon State and I don't see the Beavers getting it back in this road setting. |
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02-26-15 | Oregon State v. Stanford -8 | Top | 48-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
The road and a weak bench are a combination that will sink the Beavers here. Aside from beating Washington State in early January, Oregon State hasn't won a Pac-12 road game going 1-6. The Beavers have lost their last four away matchups by a combined 70 points! |
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02-25-15 | Denver v. South Dakota -3.5 | Top | 66-48 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Here's the short answer: South Dakota is playing well and Denver is terrible on the road. |
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02-21-15 | Marshall +10.5 v. UAB | Top | 54-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
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02-19-15 | Utah -8 v. Oregon State | Top | 47-37 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint. |
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02-18-15 | Northwestern +11 v. Minnesota | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten. |
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02-17-15 | Michigan State -4 v. Michigan | Top | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions. |
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02-16-15 | Pittsburgh +13 v. Virginia | Top | 49-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road. |
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02-15-15 | Illinois +13.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season. |
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02-14-15 | Oregon State -1 v. USC | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though. |
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02-13-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -3 | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0. |
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02-12-15 | Stanford +11.5 v. Utah | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games. |
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02-05-15 | Washington State +9 v. Oregon State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow. |
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02-04-15 | Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. |
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01-29-15 | Utah -6.5 v. UCLA | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
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01-28-15 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season. |
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01-24-15 | Kansas v. Texas -3 | Top | 75-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
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01-22-15 | UCLA v. Oregon State -1.5 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups. |
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01-17-15 | Michigan State +3 v. Maryland | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier. |
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01-15-15 | Oregon State v. Washington -6 | Top | 43-56 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona. |
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01-10-15 | Dayton -8.5 v. Fordham | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage. |
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12-27-14 | Southern Utah +19 v. UNLV | Top | 45-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here. Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games. UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number. |
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12-25-14 | George Washington +5.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go. Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor. George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone. |
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12-16-14 | Arizona State +3 v. Marquette | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players. Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago. Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is now eligible. The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus. |
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12-10-14 | Long Beach State v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 59-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The line is lower than it should because San Diego State is coming off one of the worst shooting games of all-time in a 49-36 loss to Washington this past Sunday. The Aztecs shot 20 percent from the floor, scoring the fewest points of a major college program since 1969. But the Aztecs win by defense and rebounding, which they displayed against Washington. They outrebounded the Huskies by seven and held them under 38 percent from the floor. They just couldn't buy a basket. Remember, too, Long Beach State also lost to Washington falling, 80-70. The Aztecs have defeated the 49ers in 12 of the past 13 meetings. The 49ers have allowed an average of 85.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting from the field during their four true road games. They have yet to display the discipline and toughness required to win at this tough of a road venue especially drawing San Diego State off such a dreadful loss. |
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12-04-14 | Arkansas +7.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 77-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Not only is No. 21-ranked Arkansas worthy of covering this spread, but it can win straight-up. The unbeaten Razorbacks can score, have an outstanding backcourt, shot-blocker and are physically and mentally tough. The 6-0 Razorbacks have played one game away from home - and they beat SMU, 78-72, in that contest. That was the fewest points the Razorbacks scored in a game - and they still won covering as 4-point 'dogs. They are averaging 90 points per game, only three teams average more. I really like Arkansas' backcourt of Michael Qualls and Rashad Madden. They've helped the Razorbacks lead the nation in assists per game at 20.7. Iowa State is 4-1. The Cyclones haven't been sharp, especially early, in three of their games. A slow start could doom them against the up-tempo Razorbacks. Arkansas has a good history in these spots covering nine of the last 12 times when facing an opponent with a winning record. |
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12-03-14 | UNLV v. Arizona State -5 | Top | 55-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
UNLV is one of the least experienced teams in the country breaking in all new starters. The Rebels are not well coached and playing in their first real road game of the season. The Rebels' challenge is even more daunting because they are at Arizona State. The Sun Devils have won 20 of their last 21 games homes, including the past 12 at Wells Fargo Arena. Among the teams the Sun Devils have defeated during this span are Utah, Colorado, Oregon, then second-ranked Arizona, Colgate this season and Stanford, a team that beat UNLV by 21 points at a neutral site less than two weeks ago. UNLV has talent. But it's too early in the season for that talent to mesh. The Rebels have broken the 60-point barrier just once in their first five games and are shooting less than 58 percent from the foul line. The Sun Devils defeated the Rebels by six points last season - at UNLV. The Rebels can rebound and block shots, but lack the Sun Devils' experience and balanced attack. The Rebels have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games. |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 73 h 47 m | Show |
Great coaching, preparation and team basketball trumps great individual freshman talent. That's the bottom line in this Final Four matchup as to why Wisconsin will beat Kentucky.
The Badgers have always played tremendous defense under Ryan, who I consider one of the best coaches in the country. But this season Ryan actually has a talented offensive group with five versatile players, who can all hit an open 3-pointer including red-hot 7-footer Frank Kaminsky. It's not a fluke the Badgers have covered 10 of their last 11 non-league games. Kentucky is the first team to reach a Final Four starting all freshmen since Michigan's "Fab Five" did it in 1992. The Wildcats are off perhaps their three best games of the season beating Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan at the buzzer. Aside from getting past Arizona in overtime during their last game, the Badgers have been taking care off business in the NCAA Tournament in less dramatic fashion. The Badgers have yet to really play their "A" game while it's a lot to ask five starting freshmen to put together four straight magnificent efforts in the most pressure of pressure situations. Wisconsin's four other starters besides Kaminsky are capable of playing better. The Badgers still remain under the radar being the only team left to have taken out three No. 1 seeds. The Big Ten Conference also was tougher than the SEC this season. Kentucky has the tradition, name players and is a public team. But Wisconsin is the better team. It's a bonus the Badgers are catching points. |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona -3 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Wisconsin's Bo Ryan is a great coach. But he hasn't much time in a quick turnaround to prepare the Badgers to face the best and most athletic defensive team they've played all season.
Wisconsin played a great game in burying Baylor two days ago. Arizona was able to get by San Diego State, 70-64, despite Nick Johnson, the Pac 12 Player of the Year, missing his first 10 shots. I don't see the Badgers putting together back-to-back "A" games while the Wildcats and Johnson are going to play better. It's not just Johnson as Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have been hot from the inside. They've helped the Wildcats outscore their opponents by 11 points per game in the paint. Playing in Anaheim is a plus for the Wildcats, too. The Badgers travel well, but they are not used to being on the West Coast. Arizona has covered seven of its last nine NCAA Tournament games and is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference matchups. |
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03-28-14 | Connecticut +2 v. Iowa State | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
Emotion, experience and matchups. They all heavily factor here - and these key factors all are in favor of Connecticut.
Iowa State rode a lot of emotion into beating North Carolina, 85-83, this past Sunday to earn their way into the Sweet 16 motivated by the season-ending foot injury to George Niang, who is an excellent two-way player and maybe the best all-around player on the Cyclones. North Carolina had just one day to guess how Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg would compensate for that big injury. Connecticut has five days to prepare knowing Hoiberg went for size in replacing Niang giving 6-foot-8 Daniel Edozie his first start. Taking nothing away from Iowa State's gritty win against the Tar Heels, but North Carolina suffered an unexpected injury just two minutes into the game when 6--9 Brice Johnson left for good. Iowa State is going to have size and bench disadvantages against Connecticut. The Cyclones also aren't going to have that intangible show-the-world mentality now that the full reality of Niang's absence is felt and they won a game without him fueled by emotion. Helping Iowa State's cause against North Carolina was converting 12-of-26 3-pointers for 46 percent. The Cyclones converted 35.8 percent of their 3-pointers during the season. Iowa State is not Big Dance tournament tested like Connecticut is. The Huskies won the NCAA championship three years ago. Their star guard and leading scorer, Shabazz Napier, was part of that. He's having a big tournament and will be hard to stop, especially since Niang was one of the Cyclones' best and most versatile defenders. Iowa State also is going to have problems matching up against 6-9 DeAndre Daniels. The Huskies are used to playing in Madison Square Garden. Iowa State is not. The Huskies like to think of Madison Square Garden as their home away from home having competed annually there in the Big East Tournament until this season when they joined the American Athletic Conference. Playing in New York is like having home court advantage for the Huskies as their campus in less than a three-hour drive away and many of their fans live in the New York area. |
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03-27-14 | Baylor +3.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 52-69 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Both Wisconsin and Baylor come into the Sweet 16 playing well. The Badgers, though, aren't in Milwaukee anymore. They are far away from Wisconsin being in Anaheim, Calif. So their home-court edge they had in tournament victories against American and Oregon, a team they were fortunate to beat, no longer exists.
Baylor is 12-2 in its last 14 games peaking at the best possible time. The Bears have the athleticism, height, offensive balance and matchup zone type of defense that Wisconsin hasn't encountered too often. The Bears have a lot of inside length, but also can make their 3-pointers shooting nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc. They can hurt the Badgers, a not strong rebounding team, on the boards. Baylor's 7-foot-1 center Isaiah Austin is averaging nearly four blocks a game during the Bears' six postseason games this season. I do think the Badgers have a coaching edge with Bo Ryan. However, the Bears' 17-3 tournament record in March during the last six years is highly impressive. Baylor reached the Elite Eight in 2010 and 2012. The Bears won the NIT title last season. Baylor is a very tough out so catching this many points is huge. The Bears are 9-3 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime. They have covered in 11 of their last 15 non-conference games and are 6-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Baylor beat Nebraska, 74-60, in its NCAA Tournament opener and then destroyed Creighton by 30 points. Wisconsin lost by nine on the road to Nebraska in its last regular season game. |
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03-23-14 | Baylor +3.5 v. Creighton | Top | 85-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Baylor is playing its best basketball winning 11 of its last 13 games. The Bears are NCAA Tournament tested, have the height and big man talent to match up against Doug McDermott and the athleticism to frustrate the Blue Jays.
These are the ingredients needed to upset Creighton. Baylor also is on its own home turf with the matchup being played in San Antonio, which is just 180 miles away from Waco. McDermott is a special talent. But the Bears have a front line that can contain him with 7-foot-1 Isaiah Austin, 6-9 Cory Jefferson and 6-6 Royce O'Neal. Austin was highly recruited and has a huge wing span. The Bears played well again in beating Nebraska 74-60 in their first-round tournament game. Baylor won that game despite its second leading scorer and top 3-point shooter, Brady Heslip, missing all six of his shots from beyond the arc. Look for Heslip to shoot much better. Heslip along with Jefferson and key contributor Gary Franklin all played for Baylor two years ago when the Bears made the Elite Eight. |
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03-22-14 | Oregon +5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Wisconsin scores more this season, but its defense has slipped. The Badgers have been hurt more than most teams by the new rule that limits physical play. That's the style Bo Ryan has taught his Badgers, who lost three of their best defenders last year.
The Badgers are vulnerable against fast-paced teams, who can knock down the 3-pointer plus get to the hoops and hit their free throws. Oregon has those traits. The Ducks ranked No. 8 in scoring, 31st in 3-point percentage and sixth in free throw percentage. The Ducks have three good guards - Joseph Young, Johnathan Loyd and Jason Calliste. I don't see the Badgers slowing all three down. The Badgers are not fast enough or athletic enough to keep up with Oregon, whose run-and-shoot style produces layups and open 3-pointers. The line is a bit inflated because of Wisconsin's 75-35 first-round blowout win against American. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a point spread cover. Oregon is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing at a neutral site. |
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03-21-14 | Coastal Carolina +21.5 v. Virginia | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is better than a normal 16th seed with three good guards. The Chanticleers average close to 73 points a game and are 27th in the country in defensive field goal percentage. They will get good fan support playing in Raleigh, N.C., which is 2 1/2 hours from their campus in Conway, S.C.
Virginia enters this tournament with very high expectations after winning the ACC title and conference tournament. The Cavaliers have the No. 1 defense in the land. They are a grinder on offense, though. This is going to be a very slow paced game, the kind of style that favors a big underdog such as Coastal Carolina. The over/under indicates the oddsmaker is anticipating a low-scoring game. So a correlated parlay to the 'dog and under makes sense if you're parlay-minded. Virginia has a shot to win the tournament. The Cavaliers are looking at this tournament in a long term way. They don't care how much they win this game by - they just want to win, conserve as much energy as they can and move on. The defensive-minded Cavaliers are not built to score a lot of points and cover huge margins like this. They average fewer than 66 points a game. Only once in their past 21 games have the Cavaliers beaten an opponent by more than 21 points. Coastal Carolina is playing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993. Its players obviously are very excited. The Chanticleers have nothing to lose. They can play loose. They will do all they can to not get embarrassed, nor is Virginia looking to embarrass this opponent. The Chanticleers are coached by Cliff Ellis, who knows the ACC having coaching Clemson for 10 years during the 1980s and '90s. |
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03-20-14 | North Dakota State v. Oklahoma -3.5 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a case of fading an untested team at a short price. Oklahoma is in the bargain range with tremendous line value.
The Big 12 very well may have been the best conference in the country. North Dakota State barely got past Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne in the Summit League Tournament title game. The best team the Bisons beat all season was Notre Dame, which had the third-worst record in the ACC. Both teams can score, but I trust the Sooners' scorers more. They have four players who average double figures and are excellent free throw shooters. Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS the past nine times versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600 while North Dakota State is 5-13 ATS when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-19-14 | Iowa v. Tennessee +2.5 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Current form means a lot here in this opening NCAA Tournament game. Tennessee has won five of its last six games. The Volunteers' only loss during this span was against top-ranked Florida - and they nearly upset the Gators.
Contrast this with Iowa. The Hawkeyes would be one of the worst teams in the Big 10 if you counted just the past 3 1/2 weeks. Iowa is 1-6 in its last seven games, 0-7 ATS. The Hawkeyes' defense is down. Their rebounding is off and they're struggling to make shots. Iowa did outrebound Northwestern during its last game this past Thursday in the Big Ten Conference Tournament - and still lost by five as a 13-point favorite. Tennessee ranks 18th in the nation in offensive rebounding. The Vols are far more athletic than Northwestern. Tennessee is playing top-notch defense, too, down the stretch giving up an average of only 47.4 points per game during its last five contests. On the season, the Vols hold foes to an average of just 40.8 percent shooting from the floor. This was a down year for the SEC. But the Big Ten really levels off after Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes don't have a good track record in the NCAA either having last won a tournament game in 2001. It's been a distracting week for Iowa coach Fran McCaffery because his 13-year-old son underwent surgery to remove a tumor on his thyroid. |
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03-15-14 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Virginia | Top | 48-51 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Often it takes one outstanding player playing great to help carry a team to a conference tournament title. Pittsburgh is getting that from senior Talib Zanna, who has scored 36 points and pulled down 30 rebounds in helping the Panthers advance to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament with victories over Wake Forest and North Carolina.
In their last five games, the Panthers have scored 85 in overtime against Notre Dame, 67 versus North Carolina State, 83 in overtime against Clemson, 84 versus Wake Forest and 80 against the Tar Heels. Of course I don't see Pittsburgh putting up that many points against Virginia, but the Panthers are playing well and have a very strong defense, too, ranking 28th. Virginia nipped Pittsburgh, 48-45, when the teams last met on Feb. 2. The Cavaliers hit a last-second 3-pointer to win the game in a matchup that could have gone either way. This is going to be a scrappy matchup where taking points really matter. |
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03-13-14 | Wyoming v. UNLV -8 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
UNLV is well aware that it needs to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament in order to make the NCAA Tournament. The tournament is on UNLV's home court, the Thomas & Mack Center.
The Rebels are finally healthy with Bryce Dejean-Jones returning from suspension and Roscoe Smith back from a concussion. Wyoming has been way down since losing its star leading scorer and rebounder, Larry Nance Jr. to a knee injury. The Cowboys have dropped four of five since. UNLV has never lost three in a row under David Rice. The Rebels are healthy, motivated, have home-court and catch Wyoming unable to recover from losing Nance. |
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03-11-14 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State -6 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has been a great under-the-radar story this season meeting Wright State on the road for the Horizon League championship game with the winner securing a berth in the NCAA Tournament.
But the clock strikes midnight for the Panthers here in the title matchup. Wright State has too much experience, balance and bench strong for UWM, which lost 24 of 32 games last season. The Panthers achieved their high water mark knocking off No. 1 seed Green Bay in overtime this past Saturday as an 11 1/2-point 'dog. It's way too much to expect the Panthers to hang in against another superior foe on the road on such short notice. Wright State certainly won't be taking UWM lightly either after losing 68-64 to the Panthers on the road. The Raiders buried the Panthers, 73-57, at home earlier this season. Only 20 teams in the country have allowed fewer points per game than Wright State. |
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03-08-14 | Baylor v. Kansas State -3.5 | Top | 76-74 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Revenge, senior day and a 15-game home win streak all help convince me to lay this semi-short number with Kansas State.
This isn't just a typical revenge spot for the Wildcats. No loss bothered them more than losing at Baylor in double overtime by 14 points after leading by 10 with fewer than nine minutes to go in regulation. This also is the final home game for four Wildcat seniors, including Shane Southwell and Will Spradling. The Wildcats are 8-0 in Big 12 action at home. Among their victories were defeating Kansas by three, Iowa State by seven, Texas by 17 and Oklahoma State by 5 1/2. Baylor has a losing road record in Big 12 action. The Bears have lost on the road to Texas, Iowa State and Kansas with the average losing margin in these games being by 10 points. |
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03-06-14 | Iowa v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 76-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
You have to go back to 1993 to find the last time Iowa won at Michigan State. The Spartans have won the last 17 times hosting the Hawkeyes, 15 in a row under Tom Izzo.
The Spartans are on a two-game losing streak. They haven't lost three in a row all season and traditionally play their best ball under Izzo in March. When the Hawkeyes played at Breslin Center last season they lost by 34 points. Michigan State has covered four of the last five times off a loss. Izzo drove his players hard with two-a-day practices this week following a home loss to Illinois this past Saturday. That game, though, was important for the Spartans even though they lost because they finally had all their injured players back. Now they've had close to a week of intense practices to get back in sync. Michigan State has three home losses this season. The Spartans haven't lost four home games in a season since 1996-97. That was just Izzo's second season. Iowa is a decent, but far from great road club splitting eight of its Big Ten road games. The Hawkeyes haven't finished above .500 in Big Ten road games since 1997-98. The Spartans prevailed, 71-69, in overtime in the team's first meeting this season on Jan. 28. The Spartans won despite shooting 23 fewer free throws than Iowa and being without their second-leading scorer, Adreian Payne, and their leading rebounder Branden Dawson. |
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03-04-14 | Miami (Fla) +4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
The Hurricanes are proven road warriors and in need of a victory if they want to avoid playing during the first day of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament.
Clemson locked up an opening day bye in the ACC tournament by getting past Maryland in double overtime this past Sunday. The Tigers exerted tremendous energy in going all out to achieve that victory with four of their starters playing 40 or more minutes. K.J. McDaniels logged 48 minutes while Landry Nnoko went 46 minutes. The Tigers are going to be laboring and facing one of the toughest defensive clubs in the nation. The Hurricanes rank 11th defensively giving up less than 60 points per game. They also are 32nd in defensive field goal percentage. Miami has covered six of its last eight road games and is 6-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning home mark. The Hurricanes are 5-1-1 ATS as conference road 'dogs. |
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03-02-14 | New Mexico -4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 72-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Nevada is fading badly losing and failing to cover in five of its last six games. The last time the Wolf Pack played at home - two games ago - they lost as a 13-point favorite to San Jose State. That's the Spartans' lone Mountain West Conference win in 16 league games.
New Mexico holds a talent edge at every position except point guard and has a deeper bench. The Lobos rolled past the Wolf Pack, 90-72, on Feb. 15. New Mexico is 13-2 in the Mountain West and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games, including covering its past five away matchups. The Wolf Pack, on the other hand, have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 home contests. |
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03-01-14 | Iowa State v. Kansas State | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Kansas State has the best defense in the Big 12. Iowa State owns the best offense in the conference. But I see defense trumping offense in this matchup.
The Wildcats are 14-1 at home. They have covered nine of their last 11 at Bramlage Coliseum. Their star freshman guard Marcus Foster is playing well averaging 20.9 points and shooting 50 percent from the floor during his last seven games. Senior forward Shane Southwell is close to 100 percent from a foot injury. Kansas State has a great home-court advantage, which is proven by a 23-6-1 ATS record in its last 30 home contests versus opponents with a winning road record, including a 10-3 ATS mark against foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Wildcats have covered 76 percent of the time in their last 17 games versus teams with a winning record. Iowa State, by contrast, has failed to cover in 10 of its last 13 Big 12 games. The Cyclones are 0-7 ATS during their past Saturday games. Kansas State has a strong revenge motive after losing 81-75 on Jan. 25 in Ames. In that six-point loss, the Wildcats made 42 percent of their shots from the floor compared to Iowa State hitting 48 percent. The Wildcats also shot 12 fewer free throws, which isn't likely to be the case at home. |
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02-28-14 | Yale +7 v. Princeton | Top | 46-57 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Look for Yale to bounce back after Columbia ended the Bulldogs' seven-game winning streak. Yale is 22-8 ATS following a loss.
Princeton is 4-6 in its last 10 games, which includes home defeats to Harvard and Columbia. Yale is 8-2 in its last 10 games, including a win at home and a 66-65 home victory against Princeton on a putback by Justin Sears in overtime. Princeton has been a big money-burner at home failing to cover in eight of its last nine home matchups. |
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02-27-14 | Gonzaga -6 v. Pacific | Top | 70-53 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
Gonzaga needs this game to clinch the West Coast Conference title and also to stop the pain of a two-game losing streak. If the Bulldogs lose here, they'll have to beat Saint Mary's on the road Saturday to win the title. So I see a very focused effort from the Bulldogs.
Gonzaga is 7-2-1 ATS following a loss. The Bulldogs destroyed Pacific, 86-64, in the first meeting last month. Pacific doesn't have the needed perimeter defense to keep this close. The Tigers rank 346th in defending against 3-pointers. Gonzaga is in no mood to screw around after consecutive road losses to San Diego and BYU. The Bulldogs average 77.5 points per game. Pacific surrenders just under 75 points a game. The Tigers have lost three in a row by an average margin of 13.3 points a game to competitor inferior to Gonzaga. |
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02-26-14 | Michigan -5 v. Purdue | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
The line is purposely low because the oddsmaker is factoring a Michigan letdown after its big showdown victory this past Saturday at home against Michigan State.
But what's not being factor correctly is how bad the Boilermakers are playing and how low their mental state is. The 15-12 Boilermakers aren't going anywhere especially after suffering a 76-57 thrashing at Nebraska that put an exclamation on their down season. Purdue is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games. It's one cover was a huge in-state win against rival Indiana. In their last home game, the Boilermakers lost 94-79 to Michigan State, a team the Wolverines just defeated by nine points. All together, the Boilermakers have dropped seven of their last nine. Morale is low and not helped by the news that senior guard Sterling Carter is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL in the loss to Nebraska. Even before this, the Boilermakers had shown little heart. Michigan is well-coached and knows a letdown loss to Purdue would negate its big win against Michigan State. Properly motivated, the Wolverines should bury the Boilermakers. They lead the Big Ten in free throw percentage while Purdue is last in the conference in free throw percentage. |
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02-25-14 | Iowa -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 89-95 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Iowa enters this matchup angry coming off a 79-74 home loss to Wisconsin this past Saturday. The Hawkeyes are a perfect 6-0 following a loss.
The Hawkeyes are fifth in the Big Ten behind Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. Iowa clearly is a notch above Minnesota, whose season has slipped away again. The Hawkeyes haven't lost to a team outside the RPI top 18. They destroyed the Gophers by 21 points in the first meeting this season. Minnesota chances of making the NCAA Tournament took a serious hit with losses in its last two games to Illinois and Ohio State by a combined 31 points. The Gophers have lost to unranked Illinois and Northwestern during two of their past three games at Williams Arena while losing six of their past eight overall games. Iowa has been a big money-maker on the road covering seven of its last eight on the highway. |
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02-23-14 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Only once in its last five games has Michigan had a strong offensive performance. Take away a 79-point game against Nebraska and the Wolverines are averaging 62.7 points in their last four games.
Michigan State is getting healthier with team assists leader Keith Appling back and is playing better covering four of its last five. The Spartans also are 8-1 ATS during their last nine road contests and 7-3 ATS versus opponents with a win percentage above .600. Michigan won the first meeting, 80-75. But the Spartans were missing senior center Adreian Payne due to a foot injury. Payne is averaging 18 points and 6.8 rebounds in five games since returning. I don't see Michigan matching up well inside against Michigan State with Payne back on the court plus the Spartans are sure to get better looks at the basket with Payne in the lineup. |
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