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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-19-22 | DePaul +9 v. Seton Hall | Top | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
This point spread is way out of whack. DePaul beat Seton Hall the first time these teams met. The Blue Demons have a better point spread record covering 58 percent, shoot the ball better than Seton Hall and have the best player on the court in Javon Freeman-Liberty.  Seton Hall ranks 257th in field goal percentage. The Pirates are 4-4 since losing their second-leading scorer, Bruce Aiken. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. DePaul upset Xavier as a 14-point 'dog and lost by three points to Providence in overtime as a nine-point 'dog in its last two road games.  Freeman-Liberty is one of the better players in the Big East Conference averaging 20.5 points. The Blue Demons defeated the Pirates, 96-92, on Jan. 13 as a 6 1/2-point 'dog.  The Blue Demons certainly are capable of hanging around if not pulling another straight-up upset win.Â
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02-18-22 | Ohio +1.5 v. Kent State | Top | 52-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Kent State is an upper level Mid-American Conference team. But Ohio leads the MAC and is better than the Golden Flashes. So I'm not buying Kent State opening as the favorite. The Bobcats are 22-4, including 8-3 on the road. They have a better road mark than Kent State's home record. The Golden Flashes are 16-9, 8-4 at home. Ohio took care of Kent State, 80-72, back on Jan. 7. Bobcats star Mark Sears had a big game with 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor while grabbing six rebounds and dishing off three assists. Sears averages 20.1 points, which ranks in the top 20 in the country. He's a tremendous shooter. Ohio ranks 15th in the country in turnover margin and first in the MAC at plus 4.23. Kent State can't match Sears, nor Ohio's ball protection. Ohio is ranked 87th in the latest NET rankings. Kent State is ranked 140th. |
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02-16-22 | UNLV v. Fresno State -6 | Top | 60-57 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
I don't see another Fresno State loss happening here with the Bulldogs home to the Rebels, who are 3-8 ATS during their past 11 road contests. Fresno State has covered nine of its last 11 home games. UNLV has been hot from beyond the arc lately. Don't look for that to continue, though, against a Fresno State defense that ranks fifth in the nation allowing only 57.9 points. The Bulldogs shoot better from the floor than the Rebels and also are the superior free throw shooting team. Fresno State beat UNLV, 73-68, at UNLV on Jan. 14. That was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings the Bulldogs have defeated the Rebels. |
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02-10-22 | Hofstra +1.5 v. Drexel | Top | 83-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
These teams met on Jan. 17. Hofstra was an eight-point home favorite and beat Drexel, 71-68. Hofstra is the fourth-best free throw shooting team in the nation at 80 percent. The Pride shot just 10 free throws in that game and also made only 4 of 16 3-pointers. Hofstra is 14-9 and in third place in the Colonial Athletic Association at 7-4. Drexel is 11-10 and 6-5 in the CAA. There is a point spread difference of around 10 points in this game compared to the earlier meeting. Hofstra is the better team so I'm attracted to taking this many points. The Pride just defeated UNC-Wilmington in its last game three days ago. Drexel went against Wilmington on Jan. 31 and lost, 70-63. |
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02-09-22 | Tulane +10 v. Memphis | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
Memphis has tremendous talent. But the Tigers are poorly-coached, one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation and are terrible against spread going 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games.  Tulane upset the Tigers, 85-84, as a 6-point home 'dog back on Dec. 29 and the Green Wave definitely can hang within single digits in this rematch.  The Green Wave are a solid 7-4 in the American Athletic Conference, good for third place behind only Houston and SMU.  Tulane has covered five of its last seven road games and is 3-1 in its last four games.  Despite its talent, Memphis is horrendous from the free throw line making less than 66 percent. The Tigers rank 333rd in free throw percentage.  The Tigers have failed to cover five of the last six times when laying 8 or more points.Â
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02-08-22 | Utah State v. Wyoming -1.5 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
Both Utah State and Wyoming are playing well. But the Cowboys are the superior team and are at home with a short point spread. Wyoming is a perfect 10-0 at home. The Cowboys have outscored opponents by an average of 20.3 points at home. The Cowboys average 84.1 points at home. That's 12 points higher than what Utah State averages on the road. The Aggies have won five in a row so perhaps that's why the spread is shorter than I anticipated. However, four of those victories were achieved at home. The Aggies also played some weak competition during this time frame posting wins against UNLV, San Jose State and Air Force. Utah State has a losing road mark. Wyoming is 10-1 in its last 11 games and 19-3 overall. The Cowboys trail Boise State by one-half game for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. They can't afford a loss here especially following their tremendous, 61-59, road upset win against Fresno State this past Sunday night. The Cowboys feature two of the best players in the conference, Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. |
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02-07-22 | Virginia +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
Duke is coming on. I get that. I also understand Virginia is in the midst of a down season just 14-9 and that's playing a less than stellar schedule.  But I'm not going to turn down this many points with the Cavaliers. They have shown signs lately of picking up their game, winning three of their last four. This includes an impressive victory against Miami, 71-58, this past Saturday.  The Cavaliers have a history of playing Duke close with five of the past seven meetings decided by one or two points. The Blue Devils just nipped the Cavaliers, 66-65, at Duke last season.  Virginia desperately needs a good performance here as the Cavaliers are in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament. Duke may lack Virginia's motivation coming off a 20-point beatdown of arch-rival North Carolina this past Saturday night. Virginia remains well-coached, disciplined and respectable on defense.Â
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02-06-22 | Wyoming +3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
These are two of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State has the sixth-best defense in the country. But Wyoming is the more complete team. Fresno State also is coming off two easy matchups. The Cowboys have won nine of their last 10 games. They are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 road games, including covering the past four. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points pre game than Fresno State. The Bulldogs have one of the best players in the conference, Orlando Robinson. But Wyoming has two of the three best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. |
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02-05-22 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia +6 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
There aren't many easy games in the Big 12 Conference. And this one isn't going to be easy for Texas Tech especially after the Red Raiders won an emotional, 77-64, home game against 23rd-ranked Texas this past Tuesday. West Virginia is in a desperate situation with six straight losses and possibly missing its best player, point guard Taz Sherman. He's in concussion protocol and questionable for this game. With or without Sherman, though, I like West Virginia in this spot. The Mountaineers played well in their last game, an 81-77 road loss to Baylor this past Monday. They shot a season-best 54.2 percent from the field. Look for the Mountaineers to give Texas Tech their best punch. I doubt the Red Raiders can produce another ''A'' game after beating Texas. |
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02-04-22 | Toledo v. Ball State +8.5 | Top | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Should be a great game: Ohio at Toledo to decide the Mid-American Conference and No. 1 conference tournament seed. That game, though, is Tuesday. Before that Toledo is being asked to cover what I see as an inflated road number against Ball State. The Rockets have won nine in a row. But this definitely is a look-ahead spot for them, which could produce a flat effort. Ball State had won and covered three in a row until getting buried by Ohio in its last game. The Cardinals average a healthy 74 points a game. The Cardinals have covered eight of their last 11 games. The Rockets have allowed 173 3-point field goals. Ball State has made 180 3-pointers, ranking 69th in 3-point accuracy. The combination of their 3-point shooting, home-court and catching Toledo in a flat spot should mean a cover for the Cardinals. |
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02-01-22 | Texas +5.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
Every point figures to matter in this matchup of elite defenses. Texas has the No. 1 defense in the nation holding foes to 54.5 points. Defense is a Chris Beard trademark as Texas Tech well knows about its former coach. The Red Raiders allow the 19th-fewest points in the country. So I'm attracted to the road 'dog receiving this many points. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering eight of the last 11 times. I trust Beard's defense and the Longhorns' motion offense to find some open looks from 3-point range. I also trust the Longhorns to control their turnover count facing Texas Tech's full-court pressure. It comes down to what should be a low-scoring matchup, as the oddsmaker anticipates, where Texas definitely can stay within two possessions. |
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01-29-22 | Virginia +4.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
Notre Dame is hot, winning nine of its last 10 games. But Virginia is just the team to beat the Irish. The Cavaliers are a bad matchup for Notre Dame as evidenced by Virginia defeating the Irish 16 of 18 times in the series, including the past six times. Notre Dame relies on its perimeter shooting especially from long range. The Irish rank 27th in 3-point percentage. Notre Dame is very much a rhythm team. Virginia disrupts that rhythm. No team plays slower than the Cavaliers. Virginia's defense is at its best clamping down on open shots, especially catch-and-shoot 3-point shots like Notre Dame likes to launch. On the flip side, Virginia guards Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman are adept at patiently beating half-court sets. Given four days to prepare, Virginia's elite coach Tony Bennett should have an excellent game plan. Virginia is 5-3 SU and ATS in its last eight road/neutral site games. Notre Dame is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games versus foes who have an above .500 road mark. |
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01-27-22 | East Carolina +13.5 v. Memphis | Top | 54-71 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
Penny Hardaway was one of my favorite NBA players when he played for the Orlando Magic. But as a head college basketball coach, Hardaway has to rank among the bottom 10. He actually could be in the argument as the worst coach. Yes Hardaway's Memphis team has had injuries. But the Tigers have underachieved so much they may not even make the NCAA Tournament. Memphis 5-12-1 ATS on the season. The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Until beating Tulsa in their last game, the Tigers had lost three in a row. East Carolina is off an embarrassing, 79-36, road loss to Houston this past Saturday. I find this line inflated because of that loss. Before that defeat to the Cougars, East Carolina had lost in overtime as an underdog to Central Florida and upset Memphis, 72-71, as a 7-point home 'dog. That was less than two weeks ago. Memphis shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while East Carolina made 40 percent of its field goals. Yet the Pirates still pulled it out. The Pirates may be without third-leading scorer Brandon Suggs, who scored the game-winner against Memphis in the first meeting. The Tigers, though, are far more banged-up. They will be without their leading scorer, Deandre Williams, and likely NBA lottery pick and leading team rebounder Jalen Duren. He is questionable with a hand injury. Also out are Landers Nolley II and Jayden Hardaway. Nolley leads the Tigers in assists. |
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01-21-22 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 86-74 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
These are two of the top 14 teams in the nation, according to the latest The Associated Press rankings. But we're getting a buy-low spot on Michigan State since the Spartans were upset by Northwestern at home in their last game this past Saturday, while the Badgers just defeated Northwestern, 82-76, three days ago. Michigan State had won nine in a row prior to losing to the Wildcats. Wisconsin is riding a seven-game win streak. The Badgers are playing extremely well. But the Spartans should never be underestimated. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games against Wisconsin. The Badgers nipped the Spartans, 64-63, at home last season. Michigan State is 7-3-1 ATS versus foes that have a winning percentage above .600. Both teams give up less than 66 points a game. The Spartans rank 30th in defensive field goal percentage, though, while Wisconsin is 217th. I see Michigan State winning this game so getting this many points is a nice bonus. |
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01-11-22 | DePaul +7 v. Marquette | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Marquette isn't as bad as it looked early in the Big East Conference, but the Golden Eagles aren't as good as their recent performances - blowout victories against Georgetown and Providence - may indicate. On the flip side, DePaul isn't as bad as its four-game losing streak may appear. The Blue Demons have lost their last two games to Villanova and St. John's. Certainly no shame in that. Overall, DePaul is 9-5 while Marquette is 10-6. So there's line value with DePaul. The Blue Demons also match up well to Marquette because of their height and superior rebounding. The Golden Eagles give up a lot of easy inside shots. The Blue Demons are the 17th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation. The Golden Eagles can't get anything going in transition without controlling the boards. Marquette hasn't been good as chalk either, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times when favored. |
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01-08-22 | Northern Iowa +6 v. Missouri State | Top | 85-84 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Northern Iowa has looked good in its last two games, blowout victories against Evansville and Valparaiso. The Panthers have the outside shooting, especially from 3-point range, to hang tight with high-scoring Missouri State, which has a below average 3-point defense. Northern Iowa has dominated the series winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including six of the past seven. The Panthers have the frontcourt size to win the rebounding battle, which would prove pivotal. |
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01-07-22 | Xavier v. Butler +5.5 | Top | 87-72 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
Butler is being too undervalued here after looking bad during the second half of its, 71-56, home loss to Seton Hall this past Tuesday. The 'dog has covered four of the past five times in this series. Xavier has to deal with a rust factor having not played since Dec. 21. Butler is the 31st-ranked defensive team in the country. This figures to be a low-possession type game where every point matters. That's evident by the low total. I can't see Xavier producing an ''A'' game, which will be needed to cover this mispriced point spread. |
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01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
The dynamics are in place for Indiana to beat Ohio State in this marquee Big Ten matchup. The Hooisers are home following a 61-58 road loss to Penn State this past Sunday. Indiana is 9-0 at Assembly Hall with seven of those victories occurring by double-digits. Ohio State got past Nebraska, 87-79, in overtime this past Sunday. That was the Buckeyes' first game since Dec. 11 because of COVID-19 issues. Indiana is a bad matchup for Ohio State at this stage of the Buckeyes' season as they try to round back into shape. Indiana has a size advantage and should control the boards especially if Kyle Young, the Buckeyes' top defensive rebounder, can't play after missing the Nebraska game due to illness not related to COVID. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State -2 | Top | 63-55 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
A battle of two mediocre Big Sky Conference teams isn't going to excite too many people. I rate Idaho State the better team plus the Bengals are home. So I find value in backing Idaho State at this short number. That makes this game worthwhile, at least, for me. Idaho State was picked to finish sixth in the Big Sky. Portland State was chosen to finish seven in conference by the coaches and eighth by the media. This helps reinforce my belief that Idaho State is the superior team. The Bengals went 8-6 in the Big Sky last season. Portland State went 6-8. Idaho State won the lone matchup last season beating the Vikings, 64-57, on the road. |
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11-30-21 | Detroit v. Northeastern -5 | Top | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
I'm surprised at this low point spread. Detroit is 0-5 and one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Northeastern gives up 19 fewer points per game than Detroit. The Huskies are 3-4. This is only their second home game of the season. Detroit is their easiest opponent so far. The Titans lost, 98-84, to Hofstra in their last game this past Saturday. The Titans shot 51 percent from the floor and still lost by 14! That tells you how bad Detroit is. I would feel confident laying double-digits with Northeastern against this foe. So this is a bargain price. |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
Before Baylor had to pause its season for three weeks due to COVID-19 back in early February, the Bears were right up there with Gonzaga as the best team in the country. I wouldn't put Baylor back in that super elite class where only Gonzaga resides. But I would the Bears at their own Tier 2 level, a class above Houston.  I don't want to denigrate the Cougars. Baylor, however, checks all the boxes for me in this matchup.  The Bears possess speed, size and shooting. They average 85.3 points. Houston hasn't broken the 67-point mark in each of its last three games and that's facing inferior competition compared to who Baylor has played. The Bears have won their four NCAA Tourney games by an average of 14.2 points, defeating superior foes than who Houston has beaten.   The Cougars have had an easy path not playing a team ranked higher than a No. 10 seed. Their tourney victories were against Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State.  Baylor not only is high-scoring, but its defense has shutdown capabilities. The Bears could have the best backcourt trio in the nation with Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell, who could be the top defensive player in the country.  Houston is a tremendous defensive club. No team is more accurate from 3-point range, though, than the Bears, who make 42.9 percent from beyond the arc. So this negates Houston's inside defensive strength. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas +8 v. Baylor | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
It takes some luck to reach the Elite Eight. It's very difficult to produce an A game in every pressure-packed matchup. Arkansas got away with that against Oral Roberts in its last  game. I'm expecting the Razorbacks to play much better against Baylor, which hasn't been the dominant team it was earlier in the season before having to sit out games because of COVID-19 protocols. I consider Baylor closer to the rest of the remaining teams rather than sitting on the top perch alongside Gonzaga.  The Razorbacks aren't getting a lot of love despite peaking at the right time covering 10 of their last 13 games. Arkansas has the defense, necessary guard play and coaching to if not spring the direct upset, at least hang closer than this point spread indicates.  Arkansas has the capacity to effectively mix up its defensive coverages. This is crucial in facing Baylor. The Razorbacks held all three of their NCAA Tourney opponents - Colgate, Texas Tech and Oral Roberts - below their season scoring averages. Arkansas is now 10th in defensive efficiency going by the KenPom.com ratings.  Moses Moody provides the Razorbacks with an upper level guard. He was instrumental in the Razorbacks ranking seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game, which is right there with Baylor's 85.3.  Eric Musselman is one of my favorite college coaches. His past teams have a history of not getting rattled in the NCAA Tourney when falling behind. I trust Musselman and the Razorbacks to keep this a close game. |
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03-28-21 | Oregon +2 v. USC | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks.  I expect Oregon to shoot much better than those teams. I like the Ducks' ability to adapt and follow Dana Altman's tremendous coaching.  The Ducks have shot 52 percent, or better, in five of their last seven games. They surprised Iowa, 95-80, by playing extremely fast. Oregon has the Pac-12's most efficient offense and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point percentage. The Hawkeyes seemed caught by surprise how well the Ducks played in transition. The Ducks hit 11 3-pointers against Iowa. Oregon is now 15-1 when making at least eight 3-point shots. USC ranks 173rd in 3-point defense.  The Trojans hold a rebounding edge with their tremendous size. USC defeated Oregon, 72-58, at home on Feb. 22. That was a rare late-season defeat for Oregon, which is 13-2 in its last 15 games.  I'm sure the astute Altman learned from that earlier loss to USC. The Ducks have the flexibility to play various effective styles of zone defenses and to also employ a deadly full court press. They can play fast or slow with equal efficiency. Oregon also has the outside shooting prowess to offset USC's size advantage.  Oregon holds a free throw edge, too. The Ducks make 71.2 percent of their free throws. USC was the worst free throwing shooting team in the Pac-12 at 64.3 percent.  The Ducks have reached the regional semifinal in four of the past five tournaments. They have covered 10 of the last 11 times they've been a 'dog in NCAA Tourney action. USC hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2007. |
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03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State.  Memphis holds a clear class difference on Boise State not fully reflected in the betting line.  The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their only losses during this span occurred to Houston, the No. 6 rated team in the nation. Those defeats were by two and three points, respectively. Memphis has taken care of business when favored covering 10 of the last 11 times in that role. The Tigers also are a blazing 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games, including covering in their last seven games.  Boise State, on the other hand, played its best ball early in the season. They are far from peak form now. If the Broncos didn't nip SMU, 85-84, in their first round NIT game they would be 0-5 in their last five games. The Broncos played Houston back at the start of the season and lost by 10 points on the road.  If the Broncos are going to hang in they'll have to do it without Abu Kigab and Max Rice. Kigab is the Broncos' second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's also considered their best defender. Rice is part of the Broncos' guard rotation and a good perimeter shooter. Both were hurt late in the season.  Memphis has a tall frontcourt. The Tigers are an excellent defensive team ranking No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Tigers displayed their depth, athleticism and defense in rolling past Dayton, 71-60, as 5 1/2-point favorites in their first round NIT matchup. The Tigers grabbed 18 more boards than the Flyers. Â |
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03-23-21 | Stetson v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -117 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
It's not often I write that the Sun Belt Conference holds a major class difference. But that's the case here with Coastal Carolina going against Stetson of the Atlantic Sun Conference in a semifinal matchup of the CBI Tournament.  Coastal Carolina is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers are 15-6 while Stetson is 10-13 competing in the Atlantic Sun, one of the weakest conferences in Division I. The Hatters were 3-4 before upsetting disinterested Bowling Green, 53-52, on Monday to reach this semifinal matchup.  One win and you're in the semifinals? Hey it's the CBI Tournament.  Stetson is 1-4 ATS following a win. The Hatters have a cool nickname, but that's about the only good thing I can say. They are mediocre offensively and well below average on defense.  Coastal Carolina ranks 22nd in the country in scoring averaging 80.4 points. The Chanticleers also ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They just beat Bryant, 93-82, on Monday. Bryant averages nearly 20 more points per game than Stetson.  The Chanticleers play fast and are strong on the offensive glass ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Stetson ranks 227th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina can get sloppy handling the ball, but the Hatters lack the defense to take advantage.Â
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03-18-21 | SMU v. Boise State | Top | 84-85 | Win | 100 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
Boise State is the No. 2 seed while SMU is the No. 3 seed for the National Invitational Tournament. The higher seed doesn't always mean that team is the better one. But in this case it's justified.  SMU averages 67.1 points per game. Boise State trumps that, averaging 76.2 points. The Broncos also give up fewer points per game, surrendering 66.3 compared to SMU's 67.1.  Boise State checks another box having senior leadership and a star guard in Derrick Alston Jr.  There also is a COVID-19 angle here that works against SMU.  This will be just the Mustangs' fourth games since the start of February. SMU last played a regular season game Feb. 8. The Mustangs weren't in action again until this past Friday when they lost 74-71 to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The Mustangs were 5-point favorites in that game.  The combination of COVID-19 and bad weather in Dallas caused the Mustangs to miss the final eight games of their regular season. So I don't see them being anywhere near peak form here.Â
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03-14-21 | VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
These are two great defensive teams. So getting points, no matter how few, really matters. I believe Virginia Commonwealth is slightly better than St. Bonaventure so taking points here in this Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game is a bonus.  VCU and St. Bonaventure last met on Feb. 12. The Rams won the home game, 67-64. despite making just 36 percent of their shots. Their superstar, Nah'Shon Hyland, had a bad shooting game making just 5 of 16 shots from the floor. St. Bonaventure shot 44 percent from the field. Yet VCU still won. That's telling. The Rams pulled down 19 offensive rebounds and forced 18 turnovers.  I'm expecting the Rams to play their trademark pressing defense, which is going to force turnovers, and to shoot better from the floor especially Hyland. VCU has better depth than the Bonnies. The Rams haven't permitted an opponent to reach 70 points in regulation during their past 11 games.Â
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03-12-21 | Akron v. Buffalo -4 | Top | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Akron doesn't force many turnovers and is a below average defensive rebounding team. I don't trust the Zips on offense either. Buffalo ranks fifth in the nation in 3-point defense. The Zips lack the consistency Buffalo has shown. The Bulls have scored 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They are averaging 84.6 points during their past six games. On the season, the Bulls rank ninth in scoring at 82.7 points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They can really exploit Akron's weakness in defensive rebounding.  The Bulls are peaking at the right time. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, riding a six-game win streak. Their lone loss during this span came to Toledo, which is the best team in the MAC. Â
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03-12-21 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 66-58 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm.   That victory and cover against St. John's pushed Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard's point spread record to 10-0 in Big East Tournament games. The Pirates are 18-7-1 (72 percent) in their last 26 neutral site games. This matchup is being played at neutral site Madison Square Garden.  Seton Hall is the better team with the stronger bench and best player on the court in Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Hoyas lack depth, which could prove telling given this being their third game in three days. |
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03-10-21 | Nebraska v. Penn State -6 | Top | 66-72 | Push | 0 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis.  But there's more than just that.  I don't trust any of Nebraska's players to step up in Allen's absence. Penn State, on the other hand, has been getting strong performances down the stretch from Myreon Jones, its leading scorer, and Seth Lundy, who is coming off a 31-point scoring game in a 66-61 victory against Maryland this past Sunday.  The Nittany Lions enter this matchup with the confidence of winning three of their last four, including that upset road win against Maryland. Another one of Penn State's victories during this recent four-game span was 86-83 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had Allen in that game and he torched Penn State for 41 points on 16-of-24 shooting from the floor. Yet Nebraska couldn't win even with Allen at his best. Now the Cornhuskers don't have him.  Penn State also is a far better free throw shooting team than Nebraska. The Nittany Lions rank 98th in free throw percentage at 73 percent. Nebraska, by contrast, ranks 333rd in free throw percentage at 63.5 percent.   |
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03-09-21 | Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -5.5 | Top | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play-in game to the Big West Conference Tournament, which is being held at neutral site Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas.  The oddsmaker doesn't put much emphasis on the small Big West Conference. The opening number shows this.  Cal Poly SLO is absolutely terrible. The Mustangs have lost 17 of their last 18 games. They rank 342nd in scoring at 60.9 points and are 335th in field goal percentage. The Mustangs' scoring has been even worse lately as they are averaging 59.5 points during their past five games.  Cal-State Fullerton averages 76.7 points, nearly 16 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Titans hold a huge talent gap. Tray Maddox Jr. is second in the Big West in scoring at 16.5 points per game. Josh Hall is the No. 2 rebounder in the conference and Vincent Lee leads the Big West in field goal percentage making 58.6 percent of his shots.  So why did the oddsmaker set such a short line on the Titans? Cal-State Fullerton had a COVID-19 pause after its Feb. 20 game. The Titans didn't play again until this past Friday and Saturday. They lost both of those games to San Diego, a former Division II school ineligible to participate in the tournament since they are transitioning to the Big West. So those games were basically meaningless. The Titans used those matchups to get the rust off and as a tune-up for the tournament.  The Titans know they must step up their game with UC Irvine on deck to face the winner of this matchup. The Titans have the perfect patsy to face in the Mustangs.   Â
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03-06-21 | Butler +13 v. Creighton | Top | 73-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program.  The Bluejays suspended their coach, Greg McDermott, two days ago for comparing his program to a plantation. McDermott's job hangs in the balance and the Bluejays' concentration level for this matchup comes into serious question.  Creighton has not been playing well losing 72-60 to Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bluejays fell to Xavier, 77-69, in their previous game before Villanova.  Butler, on the other hand, is showing signs of peaking. Unlike Creighton, the Bulldogs just defeated Villnova this past Sunday, 73-61. The Bulldogs also upset Seton Hall, 61-52, in their previous game before meeting Villanova.  The Bulldogs are shaping up as a dangerous foe heading into next week's Big East Conference Tournament. They have surrendered just 58.6 points in their last three games.  The Bluejays and Bulldogs met back on Jan. 16 when Creighton was playing much better. Yet the Bulldogs won, 70-66.  Sparked by Chuck Harris, one of the better freshmen guards in the country, it wouldn't shock me if Butler won this game straight-up again.  |
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03-05-21 | Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -5 | Top | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season.  South Alabama enters this opening round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game in Pensacola, Fla., going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. The Jaguars average 11 points more per game than Louisiana-Monroe.  The Jaguars have the best player in the matchup by far in guard Michael Flowers, who averages 20.8 points. Russell Harrison is the only player on the Warhawks averaging more than 12 points and he scored less than 13 points a game. South Alabama isn't a deep team, but that shouldn't matter here in this first-round tournament matchup. The Jaguars last played six days ago.  Monroe went 5-13 for the worst mark in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. The Warhawks have averaged only 58 points during their last three games. South Alabama has scored at least 70 points in six of its last nine games.  The Warhawks commit the most fouls in the Sun Belt and are bad at defending 3-point shots. South Alabama gets to the free throw line and ranks 65th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. So the matchup edges definitely are there for South Alabama. |
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03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span.  The Cowboys shouldn't be nearly this high of a road 'dog against Baylor. The Bears could be in for a letdown after capturing their first conference title in 71 years.  The Bears are still rounding into shape following a three-week February shutdown caused by COVID-19. This is just the Bears' fourth game since Feb. 2. Â  |
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03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Purdue is 9-3 in its last 12 games, riding a three-game win streak. Wisconsin is 3-6 in its past nine games failing to step up time after time when playing upper tier teams, which 23-ranked Purdue is. The Badgers' only February victories were against lower-tier Big Ten teams Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern.  I don't see the Badgers changing course by beating Purdue at Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are 9-1 this season. Purdue's only home loss was to Michigan, the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  Wisconsin is 5-4 on the road. The Badgers have failed to cover the last four times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Badgers had a great chance to prove themselves versus worthy competition this past Saturday when they hosted No. 5 ranked Illinois. The Illini were missing their star guard, Ayo Dosumu. Yet Wisconsin still lost, 74-69.  The Badgers are 0-6 now versus ranked foes in 2021.Â
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02-28-21 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Maryland | Top | 55-73 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Here comes the Spartans. Perhaps given up for dead, Michigan State has emerged as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament with three straight impressive victories. The Spartans have knocked off Indiana on the road, upset fifth-ranked Illinois at home and then upset Ohio State this past Thursday. The Spartans accomplished all of this during the past nine days.  Maryland is playing well, too, with four consecutive victories. But the caliber of the Terps' opposition during this span isn't nearly as impressive. Maryland won three home games defeating Nebraska twice and Minnesota, which is horrible on the road. The Terps' other victory was against Rutgers in their last game. That was a week ago. I'm going to ride Tom Izzo and a hot Aaron Henry with all their momentum and adrenalin facing a Maryland squad that has faced weak competition lately and could be rusty.  Â
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02-27-21 | Baylor v. Kansas +5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Baylor was sailing along until getting hit by COVID-19, which caused a three-week stoppage for the Bears. Baylor finally returned to action against Iowa State this past Tuesday. The Bears had not previously played since Jan. 30.   It showed.  The Bears were lucky to have drawn Iowa State, the last-place team in the Big 12 Conference with an 0-14 league mark and 2-17 overall record. Baylor's shooting was off while its defense allowed Iowa State to hit 10 of 21 3-point shots. Baylor barely beat the Cyclones as 24-point home favorites winning, 77-72.  No way can Baylor get away with that against Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming on as expected. They are 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. During this six-game span, they have held their opponents to an average of 58 points in regulation.  Kansas has tremendous motivation that goes beyond just revenge for a 77-69 road loss to the Bears back on Jan. 18. The Jayhawks made this matchup their Senior Night. This isn't just any ordinary Senior Night. The Jayhawks take tremendous pride in winning having never lost a Senior Night game since they started the tradition in 1984.  Baylor doesn't have this urgency. The Bears only need to win one of their last four games to clinch the Big 12 regular-season championship. If they lose this game, they still have West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech left to achieve the feat. Â
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02-25-21 | Northwestern v. Minnesota -4.5 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
Northwestern has yet to win in 2021 and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to end that streak at Minnesota.  After starting 3-0 in the Big Ten, Northwestern has lost its last 13 games going 3-9-1 ATS. The Wildcats have lost eight of those matchups by double-digits. You have to go back to the 2016-17 season to find the last time a team opened 3-0 in conference and then lost that many in a row.  Minnesota isn't a good road team. But the Gophers are extremely tough at home where they are 13-2 at Williams Arena. They have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. However, their last game was a 94-63 home defeat to fifth-ranked Illinois. The Gophers can't afford a slip-up here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament.  The oddsmaker has opened this line way too low even considering the Gophers have a pair of key injuries with guard Gabe Kalscheur out and center Liam Robbins, the top shot-blocker in the Big Ten, not likely to play due to a foot injury. However, the Gophers have battled injuries all season. Senior forward Brandon Johnson is solid and can supply some of Robbins' inside presence.  Marcus Carr leads Minnesota in scoring at 19 points a game. Nobody else averages more than 12 points a game for the Gophers so the scoring is well distributed.  Minnesota has beaten third-ranked Michigan, fourth-ranked Ohio State, ninth-ranked Iowa, Purdue and Michigan State all at home. Taking care of business against free-falling Northwestern shouldn't prove difficult for Minnesota especially being in must-win mode. |
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02-24-21 | McNeese State +4.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20.  Studying the matchup, I firmly believe McNeese State has more edges not to mention huge motivation. So I see outstanding line value.  The Cowboys average 82.2 points per game. That's 15 more points per game than Southeast Louisiana. The Cowboys rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent. The Lions, by contrast, are one of the worst from beyond the arc ranking 328th in 3-point percentage.  The Lions also give up 76.4 points while ranking 328th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cowboys give up an average of 71.7 points.  Southeast Louisiana is vulnerable inside to big man Keyshawn Feazell and to the long-rang perimeter shooting depth of the Cowboys.   |
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02-23-21 | Oklahoma -9.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
The teams met back on Jan. 19. It was no contest. Oklahoma won, 76-50. I see a similar-type result here.  Kansas State is actually in a fat and happy mood having upset TCU on the road this past Saturday, 62-54, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs. That ended a 13-game losing streak for the Wildcats.  Oklahoma isn't going to take the Wildcats so lightly now especially after falling behind Iowa State in the second half during their matchup this past Saturday. The Sooners ended up winning by 10, but they were coasting in the first half with a 21-point lead.  The Sooners hold edges across the board against Kansas State, including outscoring the Wildcats by an average of nearly 14 points a game. The Wildcats don't have much of a home-court either. Prior to beating TCU on the road, they lost by 18 points at home to Kansas six days ago. The Wildcats are just 9-23 ATS in their past 32 home contests.Â
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02-19-21 | California Baptist +11 v. Grand Canyon | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
I would be surprised to see California Baptist upset Grand Canyon straight-up. The Lancers are the 18th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 81.9 points a game.  Grand Canyon is 12-3 compared to California Baptist's 10-7 mark. But the Antelopes' last eight victories have come against Bethesda and three of the worst teams in the Western Athletic Conference - Tarleton, Dixie State and New Mexico State.  Oh, yes, the Antelopes haven't played since Jan. 30. So there's going to be a huge rust factor.  |
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02-18-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers.  Iowa is 15-6. The Hawkeyes win with offense. Only two teams score more points per game than Iowa.  Look for defense to triumph over defense here. I like Wisconsin at home in this price range. The circumstances favor the Badgers, too. Iowa is getting too much respect following its 30-point dismantling of Michigan State this past Saturday. This is a down year for the Spartans. Now the Hawkeyes go on the road where they have failed to cover five of the last seven times.ÂWisconsin is mad after blowing a 12-point halftime lead to Michigan at home this past Sunday in a 67-59 loss to the third-ranked Wolverines. I don't see Wisconsin losing a second consecutive home contest. The Badgers are 11-3 in Madison this season. They also are 10-1-2 ATS the past 13 times following a loss. |
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02-13-21 | UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | Top | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks are 5-15 and had lost 10 in a row until shocking Lafayette, 72-66, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The loss dropped the Ragin' Cajuns to 13-7.  Lafayette was flat and didn't shoot well making just 39 percent from the field when its season average is 44.7 percent. Monroe went all out playing three of their players at least 33 minutes. Russell Harrison and Koreem Ozier, the Warhawks' two leading scorers, played 36 and 34 minutes. So fatigue could factor against Monroe, which has a short bench, in this quick turnaround especially with travel involved as the venue changes.  Only once in the last 10 seasons has Monroe swept Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are the superior team with better depth and this is a monster short revenge spot for them. Look for Lafayette senior guard Cedric Russell to play much better. He's one of the best players in the Sun Belt averaging 18.6 points. Russell missed 10 of 15 shots from the floor against Monroe. The Ragin' Cajuns average 74.7 points. Monroe ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring at 63.7 points.Â
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02-08-21 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -11.5 | Top | 61-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Nebraska has lost 23 straight Big Ten Conference games. Don't expect that streak to end here. Not at Minnesota.  The Cornhuskers played for the first time since Jan. 10 because of COVID issues this past Saturday and lost, 66-56, at Michigan State. The obviously rusty Cornhuskers shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point territory.  Minnesota is 0-6 on the road, but 11-1 at home. The Gophers have covered six of their last seven home contests. One of their home victories was 81-56 against Michigan State, which just defeated Nebraska.Â
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02-05-21 | California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower.  Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge.  Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor.  New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games.  The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games.
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02-04-21 | Colorado State v. Wyoming +8.5 | Top | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
This has been a huge underdog series with the favorite being just 1-8-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings.  I see that trend continuing here.  Wyoming averages more points than Colorado State and the Rams defense has shown signs of slippage lately giving up 76 or more points in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were impressive in their last two games defeating Nevada twice, winning by five and seven points.
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02-03-21 | Fordham v. Massachusetts -13 | Top | 54-60 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Fordham was the preseason pick to finish as the worst team in the Atlantic 10. The Rams haven't disappointed. They are 1-8 and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in scoring nation-wide averaging 51.2 points.  UMass, which is 5-4, averages nearly 30 more points per game than the Rams. The Minutemen have a huge talent edge with one of the top players in the conference, Tre Mitchell.  The teams met at Fordham on Jan. 17 and UMass won handily, 65-49. Now the Minutemen catch Fordham at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS the past 27 times.  So UMass should romp again. It's not just having destroyed Fordham earlier on the road either. Compare how these teams fared against LaSalle. UMass beat the Explorers twice by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Fordham lost to LaSalle by 27 points. |
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02-02-21 | USC -2 v. Stanford | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
Stanford has the Pac-12's leading scorer, Oscar da Silva. But USC has star 7-foot center Evan Mobley and a much stronger bench. This could factor since the Cardinal have been without three starters - Daejon Davis, Bryce Willis and Ziaire Williams - during the past three games. Those are their No. 2, 4 and 5 scoring leaders.  Mobley leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and blocked shots. He's a probable top-three NBA draft pick if he decides to leave USC at the end of the season.  A key for the Trojans is that they've been able to get in some much needed practice time and rest having played only twice since Jan. 20. Their last game was this past Thursday when they beat Oregon State, 75-62, as 12 1/2-point home favorites. USC should be primed as it goes on the road. The Trojans have covered nine of their last 12 away matchups.Â
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01-27-21 | Utah State -6 v. UNLV | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Utah State has the second-best league record in the Mountain West Conference at 9-2. The Aggies have covered nine of their past 11 games. But one of those losses and non-covers occurred two days ago against UNLV.  The Aggies didn't play well and lost, 59-56, as six-point road favorites to the Rebels. Now Utah State has rapid revenge.  UNLV has a short bench. The Rebels primarily use just six players. They had four players log 34 minutes or more in their Monday victory against Utah State.  The Aggies should dominate the boards with 7-footer Neemius Queta, one of the best defensive centers in the country. Utah State ranks 15th in the country in defense holding foes to 61 points a game. Neither team shot well on Monday. But the Aggies' numbers were stunningly bad - 33 percent from the floor and just 5-of-22 from 3-point range. UNLV, by contrast, hit 13 of 30 3-pointers.  Expect Utah State to play much better.    |
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01-19-21 | Seton Hall +10 v. Villanova | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Seton Hall hasn't played since defeating DePaul 10 days ago. But that's nothing compared to Villanova. The Wildcats haven't seen action in 27 days due to COVID-19. Villanova only was able to start practicing a few days ago and then for a limited time. They have several players questionable for this game, including fourth-leading scorer, guard Caleb Daniels. It would be somewhat surprising if the Wildcats weren't at least somewhat rusty.  The Pirates have been turning it up winning eight of their last 10 games. They have the frontcourt to hang against Villanova with Sandro Mamukelashvili and Tyrese Samuel.  Seton Hall has proven itself on the road posting upset wins against Penn State, Marquette and Xavier. Villanova has only covered one of its last eight home games.  |
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01-15-21 | Bowling Green +4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 76-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm surprised the line is this high as Bowling Green was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference this season. I think the oddsmaker is underrating the Falcons based on them coming off an 88-64 home loss to Ball State this past Tuesday and Buffalo having defeated Bowling Green eight of the last nine times at home.  Spectators haven't been allowed in Buffalo home games this season so that knocks down some of the Bulls' home-court edge.  Bowling Green should be in bounce back mode. The Falcons had won their first five MAC games. They probably have the conference's top player, senior guard Justin Turner. He scored 33 points when Bowling Green defeated Buffalo, 86-78, back on Dec. 6.Â
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01-13-21 | Tulsa +4.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 53-72 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
Wichita State defeated Tulsa, 69-65, as a short road underdog a month ago. Tulsa wasn't playing that well back in mid-December breaking in new players and coming off a 10-day layoff caused by COVID-19. Tulsa had only one day of practice before that game and was out of sync. That was back then. Since that defeat to Wichita State, the Golden Hurricane have won six in a row covering all five of their lined games during this span. Tulsa has defeated four opponents picked to finish above them in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll.  Tulsa is 3-0 in road games and has had a week to rest and prepare for this revenge matchup after its scheduled home game this past Saturday against Central Florida was postponed because of COVID issues on the UCF team.  The Golden Hurricane have caused scoring problems for foes with their matchup zone defense. Only 13 teams give up fewer points per game than Tulsa, which also ranks fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Wichita State is not a good shooting team. The Shockers rank 290th in field goal percentage at 40.8 percent and are 224th in free throw percentage at 68.5 percent.Â
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01-12-21 | Cal-Riverside +15 v. USC | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Cal-Riverside is good enough to hang in against USC especially with the Trojans banged-up in the backcourt and in a flat spot.  USC has played four straight Pac-12 games. This is its only remaining non-league regular season game. The Trojans just returned home after a satisfying Arizona trip beating Arizona this past Thursday and Arizona State this past Saturday. Letting down against a Big West Conference team is a real possibility for USC.  Riverside has decent size and will play slow. The Highlanders should have plenty of energy and motivation stepping up in class. This is just their third game since Dec. 10. Riverside surrendered 88 points to Hawaii this past Friday. However, that was the Highlanders' first game in nearly a month. If you discount that matchup, the Highlanders are giving up an average of 57.8 points in their other five games. They own a 57-42 victory over Washington, a Pac-12 team, on a neutral court.Â
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01-08-21 | Central Connecticut State v. Bryant -12.5 | Top | 64-76 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Bryant buried Central Connecticut State on Thursday, 93-68. That score wasn't some fluke. Bryant is far superior. This class difference showed up on the boards and on the scoreboard.  The Bulldogs put up 93 points, which is no big deal. They average 92.3 points per game, which is third-best in the nation. They have by far the best record in the Northeast Conference at 8-2, going 8-1 ATEarn a tidy profit before even sitting down for Friday dinner courtesy of basketball guru Stephen Nover, who was 2-0 on his Thursday college basketball plays pushing his three-year CBB mark to 146-105-5! Stephen has feasted on mispriced small conference matchups just like this one. This is his strongest small conference early-game play this season - and it's specially discounted! So take advantage and score a big reward. S in their lined games.  CCS is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine tries as an underdog. The Blue Devils average 18 fewer points per game than Bryant. Â  |
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01-05-21 | Florida +2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 71-86 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The last time I got involved in a Florida basketball game was taking 3 points with the Gators on the road against Florida State back on Dec. 12. Things looked good for Florida early. The Gators were leading the Seminoles, 11-3, when Florida State called a time-out. It was at that point Keyontae Johnson, the Gators' star player and preseason pick for SEC Player of the Year honors, collapsed on the court.  The Gators obviously were shaken as Johnson was taken to the hospital. They went on to lose, 83-71.  Johnson was hospitalized for 10 days. Florida postponed its next four games. Johnson is back with the Gators, although he's not playing. He's helping coach the team. The Gators have played twice since Johnson's collapse beating Vanderbilt, 90-72, on the road and nipped LSU, 83-79, at home this past Saturday.  So Florida knows first-hand about adversity this season. The Gators have regained their focus. They can beat Alabama on the road. The Crimson Tide are coming off a huge road win against seventh-ranked Tennessee from this past Saturday night. Alabama beat Tennessee, 71-63, as 10 1/2-point 'dogs. It was the Crimson Tide's first road victory versus a top-10 team in 16 years. So there could be a letdown factor for Alabama even though this is an important SEC battle.     |
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12-30-20 | Portland +4.5 v. Seattle University | Top | 68-84 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Seattle beat Portland in its season opener coming back from an eight-point halftime deficit. Portland was a 2 1/2-point home favorite in that game. The oddsmaker had it right. The Pilots are the better team.  I believe the Pilots still are the superior team. They've gone 6-1 since that loss and have played a stronger schedule than Seattle. The Redhawks are 5-5 and have only two wins versus Division I teams - against Portland and Air Force.  The difference could come at the free throw line where Portland ranks 20th in the nation sinking 77.8 percent. Seattle makes less than 69 percent of its free throws.Â
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12-28-20 | NJIT +12 v. Vermont | Top | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
I'm attracted to the underdog in this America East Conference matchup.  The teams just played each other on Sunday and Vermont won, 92-78. So this is the shortest of revenge spots for NJIT. The Highlanders have the best player on the court in Zach Cooks. He made just 7 of 18 shots from the field, though, on Sunday. I expect the Highlanders to shoot better as a team and for Vermont to shoot much worse. Each team averages 73 points a game. NJIT made just 36 percent of its field goal attempts and was 6-of-25 from 3-point range in yesterday's game, while Vermont hit 56 percent of its shots from the floor and made 12 of 23 3-pointers.  I see the rematch being much closer.Â
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12-26-20 | Robert Morris +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 102-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm not buying Purdue Fort Wayne being better than Robert Brown. The Mastodons have failed to cover the last six times they've been a home favorite and home-court doesn't mean as much this season with limited or no fans in the stands.  Robert Morris went 20-14 last season while capturing the NEC championship. The Colonials could have the best player on the court in AJ Bramah, who averages 18.7 points and seven rebounds a game.  The Colonials have covered six of the last seven times they've been an underdog.    Â
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12-21-20 | Murray State -3 v. Austin Peay | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
The teams played against each other two weeks ago and Murray State won, 87-57, as 3 1/2-point home favorites.  The Racers have dominated this series winning eight of the past nine times. They are 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Austin Peay.  Murray State averages 18 more points per game than the Governors. Austin Peay has been one of the worst point spread teams going 2-13-1 ATS the past 16 times, including 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Racers have too much offense again for Austin Peay. The price is cheap to back them.   |
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12-14-20 | Longwood +3.5 v. Radford | Top | 66-67 | Win | 105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
This is the Big South Conference opener for both schools.  Longwood is 1-3. Radford is worse at 1-4. I disagree about the Highlanders being favored even though they are home.  Radford is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Highlanders have back only one of their top seven scorers from last season. The Lancers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road contests and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 overall games.  Longwood has held three of its first four foes to fewer than 70 points. Freshman guard Justin Hill has looked good for the Lancers. His 6.2 assists per game is second-best in the nation for a freshman. He and Juan Munoz give the Lancers a strong backcourt edge.Â
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12-13-20 | Massachusetts -3 v. Northeastern | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
These two teams opened their seasons just two days ago facing each other in the front end of a home-and-home series. It was no contest. UMass built a 20-point lead and easily handled Northeastern, 94-79. The Minutemen also defeated Northeastern last season by nine points.  Tre Mitchell of UMass was the best player on the court scoring 31 points. The sophomore guard averaged 17.7 points last season.  Northeastern is in rebuild mode having lost its two top scorers from last season. The Huskies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games.  The Minutemen are ranked 119th in Ken Pomeroy's highly-respected college basketball ratings while the Huskies are placed at 182nd.  I see no reason why UMass shouldn't win and cover again in this short turnaround.  |
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12-09-20 | Furman +4 v. Cincinnati | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
If you go by the highly respected KenPom.com ratings you'll see that Cincinnati is ranked 63rd and Furman right behind the Bearcats at 64.  The Paladins are favored to win the Southern Conference. They have played only low-major opponents so far, but the results have been impressive: 4-0 with an average victory margin of 31.2 points. Furman had one of the 100 most efficient offenses in the country last season. The Paladins were among the top 10 best mid-majors in the country.  So this isn't going to be an easy opponent for Cincinnati, especially given that the 1-1 Bearcats aren't playing well defensively and don't have a set rotation. This quote from Cincinnati coach John Brannen is telling: "I'm really learning our team," Brannen said following the Bearcats' 77-69 loss to Xavier this past Sunday. "We don't have a rotation yet. Those are things that we're learning."  Furman guard Mike Bothwell is playing at a very high level averaging nearly 22 points a game. The Paladins have covered five of their last six road games.  The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS at home going back to last season and 1-6 ATS after not covering in their previous game. Â   |
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12-04-20 | Oregon v. Seton Hall +3 | Top | 83-70 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Oregon may have the higher ceiling, but right now these teams are very even. I consider this a pick''em type game so I'll gladly accept points with the underdog Pirates. This game is at neutral site Omaha, Neb. The Pirates have covered a highly impressive 81 percent of their last 22 neutral site games.  Due to COVID-19 issues, Oregon has been able to play only one game. The Ducks' opener against Eastern Washington was postponed. Oregon is breaking in four new starters. The Ducks are without Will Richardson, one of their best players. He's out with a thumb injury. So Oregon really needs to get into action.  Seton Hall already is battle tested. The Pirates defeated Iona, but lost 71-70 to Louisville as a 5-point 'dog and fell 76-63 to Rhode Island. Â
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12-01-20 | Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
Both teams are replacing key players. But Kansas' rebuild job is further along and far less daunting than Kentucky's.  The Wildcats are likely to get better as the season progresses, but right now they are extremely inexperienced and not ready for an opponent the caliber of Kansas. Kentucky, starting four freshmen, was exposed by Richmond two days ago losing, 76-64, as 6 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats were 0-for-10 from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers. Keion Brooks Jr. is Kentucky's only returning starter and he has a leg injury. The Wildcats have missed 18 of 26 3-pointers on the season.  Kansas had a good test in its opener falling, 102-90, to top-ranked Gonzaga. The Jayhawks rebounded to beat Saint Joseph's, 94-72, this past Friday. Kansas showed good depth in that game. Christian Braun and redshirt freshman point guard Dajuan Harris were sharp in that game.  The Jayhawk are ahead of the Wildcats right now. Kansas has shown offensive efficiency while Kentucky's defense and outside shooting have not been impressive.Â
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11-26-20 | Utah State v. South Dakota State +2.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Utah State lost, 85-69, to Virginia Commonweath as a short favorite on Wednesday in its first round game in the Crosscover Classic in Sioux Falls, S.D. It was the fourth straight time the Aggies have failed to cover laying points. Utah State has a lot of inexperience this season. Aggies coach Craig Smith is using the early part of the season to experiment and get playing time for his inexperienced team of which nine members enter the season having never played a minute for the Aggies.  So there is a huge unknown quality to Utah State. Not so with South Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits have been one of the best spread teams in the country covering 20 of their last 26, including losing 79-71, to West Virginia as 11-point 'dogs in their first game of the tournament on Wednesday. The Jackrabbits were hanging tough trailing by four points during the second half, but could not get closer. They have covered six of the last eight times as a 'dog.Â
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11-25-20 | Eastern Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Wisconsin should be very good again this season returning nearly its entire rotation from its 21-10 team of last season. The Badgers, though, needed a late 15-0 run to beat Eastern Illinois, 65-52, last season.  The Panthers had kept the game close trailing by just 46-43 with less than nine minutes remaining.  Eastern Illinois went 17-15 last season and returns its top seven scorers, including Josiah Wallace. He was the fifth-leading scorer in the Ohio Valley Conference last season averaging 19.6 points.    |
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03-11-20 | Kansas State v. TCU -1.5 | Top | 53-49 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12.  The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day.  TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year.Â
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03-09-20 | Coastal Carolina +5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 65-70 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina averages nearly 10 more points per game than Appalachian State. That showed when the teams last met 10 days ago at Appalachian State. The Chanticleers won, 84-77, as 4-point road 'dogs.  The Chanticleers average nearly 80 points on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home agmes and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when favored.  I really like Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante Jones. I also like the way the Chanticleers stepped up defensively in their last game nipping Texas-Arlington, 63-62, as 5.5-point road 'dogs in their first round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game this past Saturday.  The Mountaineers have short revenge, but Coast Carolina certainly isn't going to lack incentive knowing it needs to win this Sun Belt Conference Tourney to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.Â
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03-07-20 | Penn State -7 v. Northwestern | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Penn State needs to get well and Northwestern is the perfect remedy. The Nittany Lions are in a kill mood after losing four of their last five games, including a 79-71 loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State this past Tuesday. Before meeting the Spartans, the Nittany Lions played at Iowa, hosted Rutgers, played at Indana and hosted Illinois. Now they are dropping way down in class. Northwestern has lost 13 of its last 14 games with its one win during this span coming in overtime against Nebraska when the Cornhuskers missed a mind-boggling 22 of 30 free throws. Each of the Wildcats' last six losses have been by eight or more points.  Northwestern is on pace to lose its most Big Ten games in 30 years. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, too.  The teams met on Feb. 15 and Penn State had no problem handling Northwestern winning, 77-61.Â
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03-06-20 | Ohio +2 v. Miami-OH | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Wrong team favored. Ohio buried Miami of Ohio, 77-46, when it hosted the Redhawks on Feb. 8.  I don't see anything that has changed now a month later. Miami of Ohio being home doesn't alter that.  The Redhawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games, scoring 65 or fewer points in seven of those matchups. They are last in the Mid-American Conference East Division with a 5-12 record.  The Bobcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 69 points or fewer, while averaging 71.1 points. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Jason Preston has been hot for the Bobcats scoring at least 18 points in five of his last six games.Â
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03-05-20 | Portland v. Santa Clara -7 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
Portland enters tournament play on one of the worst runs in the nation going 0-14 SU, 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Pilots have scored 65 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games. Santa Clara averages 75.8 points a game. Santa Clara buried Portland, 85-61, on the road in the first meeting this season on Feb. 1. Santa Clara hosted the Pilots in a rematch on Feb. 29 and just won by five, 73-68. Portland, a bad shooting team, made 10 of 24 from 3-point range and sank 80 percent of its free throws. The Pilots are a 67.5 percent shooting free throw team. Now the stakes are raised with this being a first-round West Coast Conference Tournament game at neutral site Las Vegas. I don't see Portland being able to stay within single digits this time around.Â
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03-04-20 | Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
I like Notre Dame as a home 'dog in revenge. Florida State nipped the Irish, 85-84, as a 9-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The Seminoles may not be completely recovered from a last-second, 70-69, road loss at Clemson this past Saturday.  The Irish need a victory to boost their NCAA Tourney chances. The had won three straight until an 84-73 road loss to Wake Forest on Saturday.  Notre Dame has never lost to Florida State at Purcell Pavilion. The Irish give up the fewest turnovers per game and have a huge inside advantage thanks to John Mooney, who is tied with Tim Duncan for the single-season record of 15 double-doubles in ACC competition.  This has been a 'dog series, too, with the favorite just 1-5 ATS the last six times.Â
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03-03-20 | Cleveland State v. Oakland -7 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Oakland is home for this first-round Horizon League Conference Tournament matchup. The Golden Grizzlies are peaking winning five of their last six. Their scoring has increased since star guard Rashad Williams returned from injury 13 games ago.  Oakland has scored 68 or more points in each of its last 10 games. Cleveland State averages 64.3 points and ranks 329th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Vikings are terrible long-rang shooters, which impacts their ability to come from behind.  While Oakland is on the upswing, Cleveland State enters the tournament having lost three of its past four. The Vikings are 0-2 to the Golden Grizzlies this season losing by an average of nine points.Â
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03-02-20 | North Carolina A&T -1 v. South Carolina State | Top | 76-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
I have found one college basketball game I like on the Monday board and it comes from the small Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference.  North Carolina AT&T opened the slightest of favorites against South Carolina State. The Aggies are not a good road team, but they still are superior to South Carolina State. The Aggies rolled past the Bulldogs, 78-63, in the first meeting a month ago despite missing 16 of 19 shots from 3-point range.  The Aggies are tied for first in the conference with an 11-3 mark. They are 15-14 overall and have won eight of their last 10.  South Carolina State is 11-16 overall and 6-9 in conference.  The Aggies hold a huge backcourt edge with Kameron Langley and Ronald Jackson. They have helped the Aggies score 71 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games.  I find this a very cheap price to get the much better team.Â
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03-01-20 | Florida International +5 v. Charlotte | Top | 67-52 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This should be a closely contested game as these two teams are nearly even in the Conference USA standings and playing for tournament seeding.  Florida International outscores Charlotte by nearly eight points a game and forces the most turnovers in Conference USA. Turning the ball over is a weakness for Charlotte. The 49ers have scored fewer than 69 points in four of their last six games and are going to have problems scoring inside facing the Panthers' ace shot blocker Osasumwen Osaghae.   I also like the Panthers having revenge motivation for a blowout loss suffered to the 49ers on Jan. 25.Â
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02-27-20 | Arizona State +4 v. UCLA | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
Arizona State romped past UCLA, 84-66, at home as six-point favorites three weeks ago. The Bruins have gone 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since then. But Arizona State also has been playing well winning its past seven games. So I have to get involved taking these points.  The Sun Devils can hold their own inside against the Bruins and have top-notch guards in Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. They both average more than 20 points a game. Martin ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring while also averaging four assists a game and 1.6 steals.Â
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02-26-20 | Bradley -3 v. Illinois State | Top | 74-71 | Push | 0 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Bradley buried Illinois State, 75-63, as 8 1/2-point favorites on Jan. 22. The Braves accomplished that despite not having their two top scorers, Elijah Childs and Darrell Brown. Both are back for the Braves. It was the fourth straight time Bradley has defeated Illinois State.  Illinois State plays better at home and is the host team. However, the Braves are the superior team and the spot sets up well for them. Illinois State is off an upset home win against Drake in their Senior Day game. The Redbirds are fat and happy after that win. They also are locked into the No. 9 seed for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, which opens next week.  Bradley still has a shot at being as high as a No. 2 seed. The Braves rank 27th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Illinois State ranks last in the MVC in assist-to-turnover ratio and is ninth in the conference in scoring at 65.8 points.  So not only is Bradley much better, but the situation is ripe, too, for the Braves. Considering this, I believe this line is way too short as I expect the Braves to win by double-digits again. |
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02-22-20 | Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Nevada-Reno should keep rolling. The Wolf Pack have won four in a row. Their scoring has taken off as the Wolf Pack have produced 86 or more points in six of their last eight games.  The Wolf Pack own a strong home-court edge, too, winning 19 straight Mountain West home contests. They are 11-2 at home this season. Fresno State isn't playing nearly as well, isn't as good as Nevada and is a poor road team. The Bulldogs beat Air Force at home in their last game. However, they were 1-3 in their previous four games before that with the lone victory coming in overtime against a pathetic San Jose State squad.  The Bulldogs are 4-9 on the road. They don't have the firepower to hang with the Wolf Pack, who are averaging 77.5 points and rank 12th in the nation in 3-point shooting.Â
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02-20-20 | Murray State -4 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Eastern Illinois had won four in a row when it played on the road against Murray State on Jan. 30. Murray State beat the Panthers for the fifth straight time, 73-70. Since that loss, Eastern Illinois has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The Panthers are not playing well like they were at the end of last month.  Murray State is 13-2 in its last 15 games. The Racers are tied with Austin Peay on top of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are clearly better than Eastern Illinois, which is 5-9 in conference and has a losing overall record. The Panthers have failed to cover in their last four home games. The superiority of Murray State is illustrated by the KenPom ratings, which have the Racers ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 141st in defensive efficiency compared to Eastern Illinois, which is rated 242nd in offensive efficiency and 249th in defensive efficiency.
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02-19-20 | Valparaiso v. Drake -4 | Top | 75-77 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
Drake has a size advantage with 7-footer Liam Robinson and is a very strong 13-1 at home.  Valparaiso is just 4-8 on the road. The Crusaders, however, nipped Illinois State, 65-62, on the road in their last game this past Saturday for their second straight victory. Valparaiso hasn't won three Missouri Valley Conference games in a row all season.  The Crusaders are averaging 59.7 points in their last four games. Drake has scored a minium of 71 points in six of its last eight games.Â
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02-18-20 | Nevada -1.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 88-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
If you toss out a 73-64 road loss to Boise State, Nevada is averaging 89.6 points during its last six games. New Mexico has surrendered 78 or more points in eight of its last 10 games and five of its past six games.  The Wolfpack have a backcourt edge with Jalen Harris and Jazz Johnson. Nevada forces a lot of turnovers and New Mexico commits a lot of turnovers.   New Mexico lost its low post edge when double/double machine Carlton Bragg was dismissed from the team in mid-January.  The Lobos didn't have Bragg when they were slaughtered by Nevada, 96-74, in Reno on Jan. 25.  The Wolfpack are ascending while the Lobos are going downhill. New Mexico is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The Wolfpack have won three in a row while covering seven of their last eight.Â
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02-17-20 | Iowa State v. Kansas -16 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
Iowa State is real down this season. Poor play on the road and the loss of star guard Tyrese Haliburton for the season are factors the Cyclonces can't overcome.  The Cyclones are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in true road games. In their last two road games, they lost by 29 at Oklahoma and by 15 at West Virginia. By comparison, Kansas just trounced Oklahoma by 17 points at home this past Saturday and two games ago defeated West Virginia on the road by nine points.  That's a good current comparison showing the difference between Iowa State and Kansas and why I feel confident laying this many points with the Jayhawks.  Kansas destroyed Iowa State, 79-53, on the road in the first meeting between the teams, too.  The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS since losing to Baylor. They trail the Bears by one game for first place in the Big 12 with six games left to play. So I'm not expecting a letup from Kansas especially after Iowa State beat Kansas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament last season. If there's a letdown it probably would come from Iowa State as the Cyclones are coming off an 81-52 home win against Texas from Saturday.Â
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02-16-20 | Memphis +4 v. Connecticut | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
I'm often attracted to the better team receiving points. That's the case here. Memphis is 17-7 and defeated Connecticut, 70-63, at home on Feb. 1. It was the Tigers' fourth straight victory against the Huskies. Despite their excellent record, Memphis has had a number of close losses. The Tigers have lost to Georgia, SMU and South Florida by a combined nine points. They just lost in overtime at Cincinnati in their last game this past Thursday. The Tigers blew a 10-point lead with six minutes left against the Bearcats.  The Huskies are 13-11, but are not playing well losing eight of their last 12. The Huskies are going to have problems controlling Memphis' Precious Achiuwa inside.Â
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02-15-20 | West Virginia v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
I don't see Baylor's 21-game win streak ending at home to West Virginia. The Bears have too much guard depth for the Mountaineer and flexibility with the ability to win playing either slow or fast.  West Virginia has scored just 49 and 59 points during its last two games shooting under 32 percent in each. The Bears have held nine of their last 13 opponents to 57 points or fewer. The Mountaineers have lost and failed to cover in each of their last three road contests losing by 10 points to Oklahoma, by eight to Texas Tech and by 16 to Kansas State.
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02-14-20 | Illinois-Chicago +11 v. Wright State | Top | 58-75 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Wright State is on top of the Horizon League standings at 11-2, while Illinois-Chicago is 7-6. But that doesn't mean Wright State is strong as a favorite. In fact, the Raiders are most decidedly not going 4-11-1 ATS as favorites of five points or more.  Illinois-Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Flames are road tested, too, winning four of their past six away games with the two losses coming by a combined three points.  This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. That has meant Illinois-Chicago. The Flames have won and covered the past three times versus Wright State, including 76-72 at home this season as six-point 'dogs.Â
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02-14-20 | Fairfield +3 v. Marist | Top | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
I have found an underdog spot I like between two lower tier teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.  Fairfield and Marist are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation. Fairfield averages 59.7 points. Marist averages 60.7 points. Fairfield has the better defense ranking 45th in the nation in scoring defense.  The Stags have gone 7-5 in their last 12 games. They have proven themselves away from home with a neutral floor victory against Texas A&M and road win against Oakland. Marist is 6-15 on the season. The Red Foxes have been favored just twice this season, both times back in November. They lost both of those games straight-up.Â
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02-13-20 | Arizona v. California +10 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
Arizona is highly talented. The Wildcats also are widely inconsistent and don't play that well on the road where they have failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times.  California is a bad road team, but 10-3 at Haas Pavilion. The Golden Bears have covered five in a row at home and own Pac-12 home victories against Washington, Stanford and Oregon State.  Point guard Paris Austin has stepped up his play recently for the Bears, who also have been clamping down defensively holding their last six foes to an average of 62.5 points a game.  The Wildcats are coming off their worst shooting game of the season, a 65-52 home loss to UCLA this past Saturday. Cal's slow play can frustrate the Wildcats.Â
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02-12-20 | Cal-Irvine -4 v. Cal-Riverside | Top | 63-59 | Push | 0 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is the best team in the Big West Conference. The Anteaters have covered 68 percent of the time during the past 26 instances they have been favored. I want them going for me in this short point spread range off a loss and against a mediocre UC Riverside squad, who has just one player averaging in double figures. That's Arinze Chidom and he's scores 11.1 points a game.  The Anteaters had a four-game win streak snapped by UC Santa Barbara this past Saturday. The Highlanders have lost five of their last seven games. They are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. They also have failed to cover four of the past five times as a home 'dog. Cal Irvine beat the Highlanders by 16 points when the teams met earlier this season.Â
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02-11-20 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Ball State | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Points really matter here as this figures to be a grind-out type of matchup as evidenced by the total.  Northern Illinois has won five in a row. The Huskies have held their past five opponents to an average of 56.2 points a game.  Ball State is an inconsistent shooting team and not as good from the foul line as Northern Illinois. The Cardinals have allowed 67 or more points in three of their last five games and are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times when going against foes with a winning record.  The Huskies are 9-2 ATS, by contrast, when playing an above .500 opponent. They also have covered in their last five road contests. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
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02-10-20 | Baylor -6 v. Texas | Top | 52-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
Probably some team is going to end top-ranked Baylor's win streak, which sits at 20 in a row. But I highly doubt Texas is going to be that team. The Longhorns don't have it this season. They just blew a 31-19 halftime lead at home to Texas Tech on Saturday losing, 62-57. Texas also lost a pair of starters to injuries in that game, Kai Jones and Jase Febres. Neither is expected to play today. Both are guards. Jones is Texas' second-leading scorer although none of its players average more than 13 points a game.   Baylor is 7-0 in true road games. The Bears also rolled past the Longhorns, 59-44, at home on Jan. 4. Baylor whipped Texas by 15 points in that game despite being outshot from the floor and making just 5-of-15 free throws. It was the eighth time in the last nine meetings Baylor has beaten Texas.Â
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02-09-20 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Wisconsin is very strong at home as evidenced by its 10-1 mark in Madison. The Badgers do their best at home against strong opponents. I'm expecting a focused, strong effort from the Badgers after they suffered an embarrassing, 70-52, road loss to Minnesota this past Wednesday after knocking off Michigan State at home in their previous game. The Badgers shot a season-low 28.4 percent from the floor against the Gophers. The Badgers shot just 38 percent from the field in the first meeting this season against Ohio State. Wisconsin missed 17 of 23 shots from 3-point range in that game yet still won, 61-57, on the road despite being outshot.  Ohio State is coming off a 61-58 road win against Michigan this past Tuesday. I don't see the Buckeyes pulling off consecutive away victories against the Wolverines and Badgers.
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02-08-20 | Gonzaga -6 v. St. Mary's | Top | 90-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference and I expect the Bulldogs to get the job done against the Gaels. Saint Mary's is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Gaels also have been a poor underdog going 4-12 ATS the past 16 times in that role.  Gonzaga should be a lot sharper than it was when it beat Loyola Marymount this past Thursday, 85-67. The Bulldogs missed 14 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that victory. That was a fluke, though, as the Bulldogs were leading the nation in 3-point shooting previous to that.  The Gaels don't have the firepower and scoring depth Gonzaga does. The Bulldogs were averaging 12 more points per game than St. Mary's, leading the nation in scoring and ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage.  The Bulldogs haven't forgotten losing to Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney last season. They have owned the Gaels beating them 15 of the past 19 times.
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02-05-20 | Bradley v. Drake | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Bradley beat Drake, 80-72, at home to begin Missouri Valley Conference play. Now Drake gets its revenge.  The Bulldogs are much stronger at home - 11-1 - and the Braves are much weaker on the road.  Bradley averages fewer than 64 points on the road. Drake holds road foes to 64.6 points at home, while averaging 76.2 points when playing in Des Moines.Â
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02-01-20 | Rutgers v. Michigan | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This matchup is part of the Big Ten's Super Saturday series at Madison Square Garden in New York. Michigan is 3-0 in neutral site games this season, while Rutgers is 1-5 in neutral-site matchups.  The Wolverines have won nine in a row playing at Madison Square Garden. They also are a perfect 10-0 lifetime verus Rutgers winning the last five in the series by an average of 10.4 points. Rutgers is a much stronger team when playing at home. The Wolverines defeated Nebraska, 79-68, this past Tuesday minus suspended guard Zavier Simpson. Rutgers struggled against Nebraska two games ago, finally defeating the Cornhuskers, 75-72, as 13.5-point home favorites last Saturday.  Simpson will be back in action in this game for Michigan. That's huge. Theer's a chance the Wolverines also could get back Isaiah Livers from a groin injury. That would be an added bonus, but I like Michigan to win this game with or without Livers.Â
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01-30-20 | Cal-Irvine -4.5 v. UC-Davis | Top | 80-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is a class above UC Davis and due to play better after its coach, Russell Turner, took his team to task for recent performances.  The Anteaters went 31-6 last year giving up 63.6 points a game. Irvine is strong again this season yielding 65.6 points while averaging 73.4. The Anteaters had their 14-game Big West Conference road streak broken in their last away game, losing to Long Beach State, 63-56, eight days ago. They followed that up with a lackluster, 74-67, home win against Cal Poly this past Saturday as 16-point favorites.  Prior to those two games, the Anteaters had covered five in a row. I see Cal Irvine getting back on track with a focused road effort here.  UC Davis is 2-6 ATS at home this season. The Aggies lost both matchups to Irvine last season, including, 64-48, at home last Feb. 28.Â
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01-25-20 | CS-Northridge -1.5 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
Lamine Diane is firmly back in Cal State-Northridge's lineup after missing games due to off-court issues. Diane makes a huge difference. Just ask Cal Santa Barbara. Sparked by Diane's 27 points, the Matadors upset Santa Barbara as big road 'dogs, 83-75, this past Wednesday. It was the seventh time in their last nine road games, the Matadors have covered the spread.  Cal State-Fullerton is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 home games, including failing to cover the past nine times as a home 'dog.
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01-24-20 | Kent State v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Kent State started 13-3, but the Golden Flashes are struggling now with a three-game losing streak.  I don't see Kent State getting well on the road against two-time defending Mid-American Conference champion Buffalo. The Bulls have won four in a row and won't want to be embarrassed on national TV.  Buffalo can be outstanding rebounding on the offensive end and Kent State hasn't done a good job rebounding on the defensive glass.Â
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01-21-20 | Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 79-62 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
I want Purdue going for me here off a loss and in revenge mode. Illinois is playing well, winning four in a row. But the Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road contests when meeting a foe with a winning home record.  Purdue has one of the strongest home-courts in the nation. The Boilermakers are 8-1 at home this season and have won 15 consecutive Big Ten home matchups.  Purdue is coming off a 57-50 road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS following a loss. The Boilermakers also have revenge for an embarrassing 63-37 road defeat to Illinois four games ago. Purdue shot a school-worst 25 percent from the floor in that loss. The Boilermakers have won the last eight times they've hosted the Illini.Â
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01-20-20 | Oklahoma +10 v. Baylor | Top | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Baylor got past Iowa State and escaped Oklahoma State on Saturday. Things don't let up for the No. 2 ranked Bears, though, with this matchup.  Oklahoma has its confidence again after beating TCU, 83-63, two days ago. Baylor had a much more difficult time with its Saturday victory against the Cowboys trailing by 12 in the second half. It was a terrible beat for those who backed Oklahoma State at plus 6. The Cowboys trailed by three with 14 seconds left, but ended up losing by seven when Baylor sank four free throws at the end. It was the only time all game that the Bears led by that many points.  This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times.Â
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01-18-20 | West Virginia v. Kansas State +6 | Top | 68-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
West Virginia is in a vulnerable spot coming off probably its best game of the season, an 81-49 home win against TCU this past Tuesday. The Mountaineers shot a season-high 58 percent from the floor.  The Mountaineers are going to have to take desperate Kansas State's best punch. The Wildcats' Big 12 season hangs in the balance as they are 0-4. Kansas State is one of the top 45 defenses in the country and they are going to be tough at home in this spot. West Virginia has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been a road favorite.
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