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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies. |
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03-23-24 | Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 | Top | 77-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday. |
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03-20-24 | Appalachian State +7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C. |
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03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday. |
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03-14-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 85-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now. |
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03-09-24 | Cal Poly v. UC San Diego -18 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread. |
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03-01-24 | Fairfield +1.5 v. Marist | Top | 55-58 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team. |
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02-27-24 | Nevada +7.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada. |
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02-24-24 | Duke +2.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row. |
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02-22-24 | Troy State +2.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday. |
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02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV. |
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02-20-24 | Wyoming +14.5 v. Nevada | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night. |
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02-19-24 | Iowa State +9.5 v. Houston | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars. |
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02-18-24 | Canisius -2.5 v. Siena | Top | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Canisius is nothing great. But Siena is the Washington Generals of college basketball. Canisius is 9-15. Siena is 3-21 in its last 24 games. The Saints very well could be the worst offensive team in the country. |
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02-17-24 | Indiana State -4.5 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
There hadn't been this much excitement about Indiana State since Larry Bird played for the Sycamores. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Sycamores they are coming off a stunning home upset loss to 12-14 Illinois State this past Tuesday. |
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02-16-24 | Brown v. Princeton -12.5 | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark. |
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02-15-24 | Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup. |
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02-13-24 | Duquesne v. Dayton -8.5 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers. |
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02-09-24 | Dayton -1.5 v. VCU | Top | 47-49 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers. |
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02-06-24 | Oklahoma State v. Houston -20 | Top | 63-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years. |
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02-03-24 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus. |
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01-30-24 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -1.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game. |
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01-27-24 | Colorado v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31. |
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01-26-24 | Ohio v. Kent State -2.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games. |
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01-23-24 | Houston v. BYU +2.5 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU. |
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01-20-24 | Purdue v. Iowa +7 | Top | 84-70 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points. |
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01-19-24 | Marist +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's | Top | 48-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's. |
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01-18-24 | Troy State v. South Alabama | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas. |
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01-17-24 | Lafayette v. Holy Cross +5.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them. |
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01-16-24 | Wisconsin v. Penn State +7.5 | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup. |
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01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -3.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
I'm selling high on the Gophers right now. |
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01-10-24 | The Citadel v. Furman -9.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
Back on Dec. 19, The Citadel stunned Notre Dame, beating the Irish, 65-45, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog.
Much has changed this month, though, for the Bulldogs. And it's not good. The Citadel suffered multiple injuries, losing leading scorer AJ Smith to a shoulder injury and second-leading rebounder Winston Hill to a season-ending knee injury. The Bulldogs were missing four players in their last game, which was an 80-64 home loss to Samford this past Saturday. Now the Bulldogs have to go on the road to meet Furman. The Paladins are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Furman buried The Citadel at home last season, 97-72. However, the Bulldogs upset the Paladins, 69-65, when they hosted them later in the season. Furman hasn't lost two in a row to The Citadel in 11 years. Furman averages 81.8 points a game. The Citadel has allowed 80 points in each of its last two games. The Paladins have two big scorers in Marcus Foster and JP Pegues. They are averaging 19.8 points and 18.8 points per game, respectively. Minus Smith, the Bulldogs' leading scorer is Elijah Morgan at 14.5 points. Ed Conroy, coach of The Citadel, admitted his team is going to have to reinvent themselves following all these injuries. That's going to take time. So the spot sets up well for Furman. |
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01-06-24 | Cincinnati v. BYU -8.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams. |
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12-13-23 | Florida International +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 60-94 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23. |
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12-05-23 | Cleveland State v. St. Mary's -14.5 | Top | 57-70 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State. |
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11-29-23 | Davidson +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season. |
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11-27-23 | North Dakota State +7.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
North Dakota State is a strong 3-point shooting team ranking 64th. The Bisons are in a good situational spot here.Â
They draw San Jose State in the Spartans' first game since returning from the Virgin Islands. San Jose State went 2-1 in the Paradise Jam Tournament there. The Spartans were favored in all three of their games there against weak competition. That has made their record and statistics look better than they really are. I don't think the Spartans are very good. They only scored 42 points in a 14-point loss to Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago before they went on their Virgin Islands trip. I think these teams are closer than this point spread indicates. |
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11-22-23 | New Mexico -7.5 v. Rice | Top | 90-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage. |
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11-14-23 | Texas State v. Oklahoma -15 | Top | 54-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins. |
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11-07-23 | Presbyterian v. Vanderbilt -18.5 | Top | 68-62 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -7.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number. Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively. However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that. Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams. Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UABÂ -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road. The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor. UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers. Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games. I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense. Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves. Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament. It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside. Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points. I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me. |
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03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas -4 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th. Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game. Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns. The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games. |
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03-19-23 | TCU v. Gonzaga -4.5 | Top | 81-84 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU. Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent. I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy. TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory. |
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03-16-23 | Colgate v. Texas -13 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. |
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03-15-23 | UCF +2.5 v. Florida | Top | 67-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State. The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival. The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points. |
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03-12-23 | Memphis +6 v. Houston | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points. Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game. The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points. Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation. A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points. |
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03-10-23 | Grand Canyon v. Sam Houston State -2.5 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.  |
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03-09-23 | San Jose State v. Nevada -5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road. I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas. Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games. San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team. Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside. |
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03-06-23 | Idaho State v. Montana -5 | Top | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
Idaho State is 11-20. I'm surprised the Bengals even have that many wins because they are terrible. Montana has underachieved in going 16-13, 10-7 in the Big Sky. But the Grizzlies have a huge talent edge here along with momentum. The fourth-seeded Grizzlies are very live to capture the Big Sky Conference Tournament. Montana is 7-1 in its last eight games. Idaho State is 2-5 in its last seven games. Josh Bannan and Aanen Moody give the Grizzlies the two best players on the court. The Grizzlies were 2-0 against Idaho State during the regular season winning 84-55 at home and 69-61 on the road. |
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03-04-23 | UNLV v. Nevada -8 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Back when UNLV was playing much better, the Rebels defeated Nevada, 68-62, at home on Jan. 28. Since then UNLV only has managed to beat three of the four worst teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels were a no-show in their last game, a 91-66 home loss to Utah State this past Wednesday. If it wasn't for a last-second tip-in in a 54-53 home win against Air Force, the Rebels would be 0-5 in their last five games. So I don't see the Rebels staying with revenge-minded Nevada. The 22-8 Wolf Pack need this game to have a good chance of landing an NCAA Tournament berth. Nevada is a perfect 15-0 at home. The Wolf Pack will have a sellout crowd at home on senior night playing their arch-rival. They are the superior team catching a downtrodden UNLV team. Expect a double-digit Wolf Pack victory. |
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03-03-23 | Nebraska-Omaha v. UMKC +1.5 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
I'm very surprised Kansas City opened as a 'dog to Nebraska Omaha in this Summit League Tournament matchup. UMKC is 11-20. Nebraska Omaha is 8-22. The Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 11 games. UMKC beat them in both meetings during the regular season, 64-61, on Jan. 26 and 75-59 on the road Dec. 31. The Kangaroos give up nearly nine points fewer per game than Nebraska Omaha. They also are a much stronger rebounding team than the Mavericks. UMKC has the best player on the court, too, in Rayquawndis Mitchell. |
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02-28-23 | Ball State +8.5 v. Akron | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
This line is out of whack. Both teams are 20-9 and battling for third place in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State State was a three-point home favorite against Akron on Jan. 6 and won, 70-63. Now look at the line. This should be a very close game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals win again. They are in better current form although they got a jolt in their last game losing as road chalk to Eastern Michigan this past Saturday. Before that defeat, though, Ball State had won seven of its past eight games. The Cardinals should be highly-focused following that wake-up call. They are 16-5 ATS (76 percent) the past 21 times following a loss. Ball State also has covered four of the last five times against opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Akron, by contrast, is 1-7 ATS the past eight times when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Zips' 14-1 home record looks impressive, but they have a losing ATS mark on the season and are 3-3 during their last six games. The teams have similar statistics. Ball State, however, ranks 43rd nationally in 3-point percentage. That's nearly 100 teams better than Akron in that key category. |
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02-26-23 | Washington +6 v. Stanford | Top | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Even given home-court advantage, I don't think Stanford should even be favored against Washington let alone laying mid-sized points like this. So I'm on the Huskies. Washington is 16-13 and 8-10 in the Pac-12. Stanford is 11-17 and 5-12 in the Pac 12. Washington is playing much better than the Cardinal, too. The Huskies have won three in a row. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Stanford has lost five of its last six games, including the past three. The teams met on Jan. 12 in Seattle and the Huskies easily won, 86-69. The Cardinal could connect on just nine of 29 3-point attempts. It wasn't a fluke. The Huskies rate seventh in the country in 3-point defense while Stanford is 306th in 3-point defense. |
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02-21-23 | Iowa State +8 v. Texas | Top | 54-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
This is the most points Iowa State has gotten all season. T.J. Otzelberger could be the best coach in the country. So I'm going to accept this many points. Texas is a top-25 offense. Iowa State is a top 15-defense. I trust Otzelberger and the Cyclones' defense to keep this close. Texas was fortunate to get past Oklahoma, 85-83 in overtime, this past Saturday as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-21 (25 percent) ATS the last 28 times following a victory. Iowa State handled the Longhorns at home. The Cyclones beat them, 78-67, on Jan. 17. They can hang here. |
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02-20-23 | Minnesota v. Illinois -14.5 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
There is one team in the Big Ten Conference who is an autofade - Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-13 in the league. They haven't been competitively on the road lately. The Gophers lost by 35 points to Rutgers and by 20 points to Northwestern in their last two away games. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road contests. I see this as a kill spot for the host Illini. Minnesota has lost nine in a row. It's also a difficult situational spot for the Gophers as because of previous postponements this will be just their third game in 16 days. |
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02-19-23 | UNLV v. Boise State -7 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
Boise State is very tough at home. UNLV is a sliding team with a bad recent history against the Broncos. So I find this a simple choice: Lay the points with Boise State. The 20-6 Broncos have won their last 11 home games with all but one of those victories coming by nine or more points. They are 10-3 in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV is 16-10 with a 5-9 Mountain West record. The Rebels have lost three of their past four games, including home losses to San Jose State and Fresno State as mid-sized favorites. They are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games. Boise State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Broncos have held opponents to fewer than 60 points a game when playing at home, while averaging more than 74 points shooting 49 percent from the floor and 77 percent from the foul line. The Broncos have dominated the Rebels winning the past six meetings. This includes an 84-66 road win on Jan. 11. |
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02-16-23 | Eastern Illinois v. SE Missouri State -8 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
Maybe it's because Southeast Missouri State has lost three in a row. But I find this line to be well short of my power rankings for these two teams. The Redhawks are at least a dozen points better than Eastern Illinois given home-court advantage. SE Missouri State has won the last five in the series, including defeating the Panthers, 79-68, on the road Jan. 28. SE Missouri State is in a five-way tie for second place in the Ohio Valley Conference at 8-6. Eastern Illinois is 9-18 overall and 5-9 in the OVC. The Redhawks lead the conference in scoring, field goal percentage and have the best turnover margin. They have the best player on the court in Phillip Russell, who leads the Ohio Valley Conference in scoring at 19 points per game while also dishing off 5.2 assists per game. I don't see Eastern Illinois staying with SE Missouri State. The Panthers average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank last in the OVC in free throw percentage, rebounding margin and 3-pointers made. |
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02-12-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Hawaii -4.5 | Top | 52-51 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Hawaii has the better record. Hawaii is the better team. The key question is can the Rainbow Warriors cover this number? I say they can. Home-court is huge here. Hawaii is 15-3 at home. Cal State-Fullerton is 3-10 on the road. The Rainbow Warriors have won their home games by an average of nearly eight points per game. This has been a home team series with the host covering five of the past six times. Cal-State Fullerton doesn't have enough scoring to stay within this number. Hawaii ranks 19th in the country defensively allowing 62 points a game. The Titans average fewer than 69 points per game. The Rainbow Warriors also have revenge motivation. The Titans beat them, 79-72 in overtime, when they hosted them on Jan. 7. Hawaii plays much better at home. |
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02-10-23 | Fresno State v. Nevada -9 | Top | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Nevada is extremely tough at home. I know first hand having covered games at Lawlor Events Center on the Reno campus during my sportswriting days. I don't see Fresno State staying within double-digits on the road against the Wolf Pack. The Wolf Pack average nearly 79 points at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Lawlor. Fresno State doesn't have the scoring to keep up. The Bulldogs average just 62 points a game, which ranks 353rd in the country. They are terrible at making 3-pointers and bad at defending against 3-pointers. The Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have failed to cover in nine of their past 13 away contests. I'm not fooled by Fresno State's two game win streak, upsetting UNLV and defeating San Jose State. During their previous three games before those wins, the Bulldogs lost to Wyoming on the road, fell to Utah State at home and lost to Boise State on the road. They averaged just 56 points during those three matchups. Nevada has won and covered three in a row. In their last four home games, the Wolf Pack beat Utah State by 15 points, defeated New Mexico by three in overtime, knocked off San Diego State by nine and rolled past Air Force by 20 despite being in a letdown spot. Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State are far superior to Fresno State. The Wolf Pack are 20-8 ATS the past 28 times at home when going against a foe with a losing road record. |
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02-05-23 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -2.5 | Top | 54-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday. Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games. This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996. The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa. Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent. |
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02-03-23 | Boise State +6.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season. Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday. The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many. Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points. The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games. |
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02-02-23 | William & Mary +1 v. Hampton | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton. William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record. The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11. William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense. The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests. |
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01-31-23 | Northern Illinois +5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC. Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago. Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes. Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met. |
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01-30-23 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts -15 | Top | 53-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts. The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country. South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road. Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games. I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference. |
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01-25-23 | Samford +7 v. Furman | Top | 84-91 | Push | 0 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range. Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line. Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent. This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times. |
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01-24-23 | North Carolina v. Syracuse +4.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group. Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS. Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games. The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark. |
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01-11-23 | Abilene Christian -6 v. UT-Rio Grande Valley | Top | 86-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots. The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row. Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team. |
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01-03-23 | Mississippi State +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 53-87 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country. Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes. |
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12-10-22 | Portland State +1.5 v. Cal Poly | Top | 49-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home. Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points. The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game. Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings. |
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11-16-22 | Texas Southern +31.5 v. Houston | Top | 48-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated. Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas. No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed. Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter. North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke. Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise. |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah +8 v. Fresno State | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
I understand why Fresno State is such a large favorite here. The Bulldogs are an elite defensive team, playing at home and going against a Big Sky Conference opponent. But that doesn't mean this point spread is right.  Southern Utah is on a roll having fun and enjoying one of its finest seasons with a 23-11 mark. The Thunderbirds have been sizzling in reaching the semifinals of The Basketball Classic by averaging 80.6 points in posting victories against Kent State, UTEP and Portland. The Thunderbirds are 89-for-161 from the floor in the tournament shooting 55.2 percent from the field.  The Thunderbirds averaged 78.8 points during the regular season, 26th-best in the country and 13 points more per game than Fresno State. The Bulldogs are one of the top defensive teams in the country. But they haven't demonstrated that during the tournament giving up 71 and 74 points during their last two games after holding foes to an average of 58.4 points entering this tournament.  Fresno State hasn't been playing that well going 5-7 in its last 12 games. The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS the past six times as a home favorite and 2-9 ATS the last 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent.Â
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense. The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though. Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament. Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average. Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. |
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03-23-22 | Youngstown State +13.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Often the best line value comes in the minor postseason basketball tournaments rather than the NCAA Tournament. That's the case in this quarterfinal matchup in The Basketball Classic.  Fresno State should not be this large of a favorite. The Bulldogs are just 4-7 in their last 11 games. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times as home chalk and 2-8 ATS the last 10 times facing an above .500 foe.  Youngstown State is a prideful and competitive team bidding to win its 20th game of the season. That would tie the Penguins' school record for most Division I victories in a season matching their 1997-98 team.  The Penguins average seven points more per game than the Bulldogs.  Expect a competitive match up here and not a blowout.Â
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt +4 v. Xavier | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
Even with Xavier the host team in this NIT quarterfinal matchup, I still believe the wrong team is favored.  Xavier has underachieved all season and a victory against Florida in its last game doesn't change that. Unlike Xavier, Vanderbilt improved as the season went on. The Commodores buried Georgia and knocked off Alabama in the SEC Conference Tournament before falling to Kentucky in a close game. Vanderbilt has stayed hot defeating Belmont and Dayton as short favorites in its first two NIT games.  The Musketeers have had a different trajectory this season. They finished the regular season going 2-8 and then lost to Butler in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers didn't come close to covering against Cleveland State in their first-round NIT matchup before rolling past Florida.  Xavier might have had some extra incentive against the Gators because it was the first game for Jonas Hayes as interim head coach after Travis Steele resigned following the Cleveland State game after four years of heading Xavier's program. The timing of this move was curious and surprising. It could have a negative effect in this game for Xavier.  I'm always more comfortable when the team I back has the best player on the court. Vanderbilt has that with Scottie Pippin Jr. The Commodores also have a good center in Liam Robbins.  These teams actually met this season. That was back in October during a scrimmage, which Vanderbilt won. I don't put a whole lot of stock in that. But there are other indications that point to Vanderbilt faring well here.  The Commodores are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. They also are 10-2 ATS the past dozen times when facing above .500 competition. On the flip side, Xavier is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-9 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Musketeers have also been awful as a favorite failing to cover 11 of the last 15 times in that role.
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03-20-22 | Texas +3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
Texas beat Kansas and Tennessee this season. The Longhorns certainly are capable of defeating Purdue. The key is the Longhorns' ninth-ranked defense and the tremendous coaching of Chris Beard. Purdue coach Matt Painter has gone against Beard twice in the NCAA Tournament and lost both times. Beard bested Painter when he was at Arkansas Little Rock and at Texas Tech in a Sweet 16 victory against Purdue in 2018. Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA Tourney title game 2019 and Elite Eight in 2018. I trust Beard to neutralize 7-foot-4 Zach Edey inside and fluster Jaden Ivey forcing him to do too much. On the offensive end, Beard's motion offense can exploit Purdue's defensive liabilities, freeing up Timmy Allen and others to get open looks. The Boilermakers rank 207th in 3-point defense. Purdue is just 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 7-18-2 ATS the past 27 times when favored. Purdue had failed to cover in its last six games before burying an overmatched Yale squad in its first-round NCAA Tourney game. |
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03-19-22 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 48-53 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years. Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game. Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game. Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances. New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor. |
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03-18-22 | Colgate +7.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 60-67 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means. Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble. Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten. The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that. |
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03-16-22 | Dayton v. Toledo | Top | 74-55 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
I thought the Mid-American Conference was strong this season. Toledo was the class of that conference going 26-7, including 17-3 in league. But the Rockets were upset in the semifinals of the MAC Tournament by Akron. So the Rockets didn't get an NCAA Tournament berth. Instead they are in the NIT. Unfair? Probably. The key is how will the Rockets react? That's a difficult question. I do think the Rockets, though, will win this game. They catch a huge break getting to be the host team. Toledo is 13-1 at home this season. The Rockets are 12-5 ATS the past 17 times when favored. Dayton is a slow-paced Atlantic-10 Conference team that averages 12 points fewer per game than Toledo. The Flyers are tough defensively. But they don't have the scoring to keep up with the Rockets with the game in Toledo. The Rockets are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation at 81.5 points. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. They also are 16th in the country in assist/turnover ratio. |
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03-15-22 | Cleveland State +12.5 v. Xavier | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
Every year there are great spots in the NIT featuring favorites who are overpriced because they are off disappointing seasons and suffer letdowns in their first round game.  This matchup is a perfect example. Xavier dropped six of its last seven games, including an overtime loss to Butler in the Big East Tournament. The result is no NCAA Tournament bid for the Musketeers. That's a huge disappointment for Xavier. Cleveland State doesn't feel that way about competing in the NIT. The Vikings are anxious to show their wares. They are a solid team that shared the Horizon League regular season title. The Vikings, though, were upset in the league tournament by eventual champion Wright State.  The Vikings average 75.6 points. Xavier's defense collapsed, giving up an average of 83.4 points during the last seven games.  Xavier has been terrible as a favorite and when playing at home. The Musketeers are 3-10 ATS as chalk and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 home contests. |
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03-11-22 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Long Beach State +4.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
These have been two hot, play-on teams. At this point spread range, though, I have to get involved and back Long Beach State. All the Beach have done is go 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games. They've won eight of their last 10 games and are 20-7 ATS the past 27 times when getting points. Santa Barbara is the No. 5 seed in this Big West Tournament. Long Beach State is the No. 1 seed. |
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03-11-22 | Miami-FL +9 v. Duke | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
A case of food poisoning and lack of defense makes Duke an unattractive favorite. The Blue Devils lost at home to North Carolina in their final regular season game and were unimpressive in an 88-79 ACC Tournament quarterfinal win against undermanned Syracuse yesterday. This is what Duke coach Mike Kryzewski said following the Syracuse game: ''We're not playing very good defense right now. We did not against North Carolina and we did not in this game. We're missing a lot of assignments. Kryzewski also said some Duke players were dealing with food poisoning. Miami is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including upsetting Duke, 76-74, on the road in January. |
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03-06-22 | Albany +5 v. Hartford | Top | 49-61 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. |
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03-05-22 | UNLV v. New Mexico +4 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament. It's a flat spot for the Rebels. Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season. The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark. |
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03-04-22 | Richmond +4 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 65-72 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus. St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder. Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2. The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record. |
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03-02-22 | Presbyterian v. Campbell -2.5 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
Campbell is the better team. Power rating-wise, I have the Fighting Camels as a mid-size favorite at a neutral site in this Big South Tournament matchup. Presbyterian is 12-19. Campbell is 15-12. The Fighting Camels have a far superior defense giving up fewer than 62 points per game. They rank 22nd in the nation defensively. Presbyterian is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. |
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03-01-22 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -14.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
This is a kill spot for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are looking for redemption after getting upset this past Sunday at Maryland. Ohio State still has much to play for trying to secure a top-four seed into the Big Ten Tournament and the bye into the quarterfinals that goes with it. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also are 8-2 ATS following a point spread loss. Nebraska has been bad again this season going 8-21 with a 2-16 Big Ten record. The Cornhuskers, though, are in a rare flat spot having stunned Penn State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog, 93-70, this past Sunday. |
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02-28-22 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +2 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
San Diego State has the No. 2 defense in the country. I have great respect for the Aztecs. But I'm not buying Wyoming as a home underdog. The Cowboys have won all 14 of their home games this season. They have the two best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points per game than San Diego State and also has a respectable defense giving up 65.6 points, which ranks 74th, and is 24th in 3-point defense. Wyoming is 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is 18-7 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West. The Cowboys are proven, too, against good competition going 22-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. |
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02-26-22 | Arizona v. Colorado +10.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
Barring winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, Colorado won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. So this revenge spot is the Buffaloes' game of the year. The Wildcats have a bigger game on deck playing at USC. Colorado has been playing well with five victories in its last six games. This is the Buffaloes' final home game of the season so it's senior night. This has been a home team series with the host covering six of the last seven times. |
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02-25-22 | San Jose State +22.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
San Diego State is in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs just lost to first-place Boise State by one point this past Tuesday. The Aztecs have second-place Wyoming on deck following this opponent - San Jose State. San Jose State is last in the conference. So San Diego State can't be blamed if they take the Spartans for granted while in the middle of a conference sandwich. The Aztecs haven't been good lately in this role. They've been favored by 14 points or more three times in their past six games. They are 0-3 ATS in those games. The Aztecs' 0-3 ATS mark laying big points isn't a fluke. San Diego State plays great defense, but only averages 65.1 points a game. That ranks 306th. San Jose State hung in during the first meeting between the two teams losing, 72-62, on Feb. 9 as a 17-point home 'dog. The Spartans should be loose and confident having upset New Mexico, 71-55, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog during their previous game. That snapped a 14-game losing streak. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and have covered in five of their past six road contests. |
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02-24-22 | Idaho State v. Northern Arizona -3.5 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
Northern Arizona isn't very good at 9-18. But 6-20 Idaho State is downright terrible. I find this a short number to lay with the Lumberjacks at home. Idaho State ranks 326th in scoring at 64.2 points a game. The Bengals are just as bad defensively ranking 340th in defensive field goal percentage. The Lumberjacks have covered six of their last eight games. |
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02-23-22 | Chattanooga -3 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
Chattanooga rolled past East Tennessee State, 82-52, as a 7 1/2-point home favorite on Dec. 31. The Mocs may not win by 30 points again, but they still should easily win this game. Chattanooga is the top team in the Southern Conference with a 22-7 overall record and 12-4 league mark. East Tennessee State ranks eighth out of 10 teams in the Southern Conference with a 6-10 league mark. The Buccaneers are under .500 on the season overall. The Mocs are 21-5-1 ATS the past 27 times playing a below .500 opponent. They also have covered 67 percent of their last 55 road games. The Mocs are 5-1 in their last six road contests. Chattanooga clearly is superior to the Buccaneers outscoring them per game while giving up an average of eight fewer points a game. The Buccaneers have revenge and senior night playing in their final home game of the season. But Chattanooga isn't going to lack motivation. The Mocs are on a rare two-game losing skid falling twice at home as big favorites during their past two games. They haven't lost three in a row all season. Chattanooga is 20-7-1 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. East Tennessee State defeated The Citadel in its last game. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread six of the past seven times following a victory. |
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02-22-22 | Michigan State +7 v. Iowa | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
I'll willingly accept this many points with a desperate Michigan State and Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 1-4 in their last five games. They are 8-3 ATS following a loss. Iowa, in contrast to Michigan State, has won four of its last five. The Hawkeyes are averaging 90.5 points in their last five games. This has contributed to an inflated line, though. Points and possessions matter in the rugged Big Ten. The Spartans haven't been an underdog of more than three points in any of their 15 Big Ten games. The Hawkeyes aren't that much better than the Spartans - if they are even better at all. |
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02-21-22 | Penn State v. Maryland -2.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
I don't trust Penn State's weak offense, nor do I trust the Nittany Lions on the road. Penn State ranks 306th in scoring. Maryland averages five more points per game than the Nittany Lions. The Terrapins hold a backcourt edge with Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell, both of whom average more points than any player on Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 1-6 in their Big Ten Conference road games. They have lost their last five away Big Ten matchups. Maryland has looked good recently. The Terrapins nearly upset Purdue on the road two games ago falling by one point. Maryland then buried Nebraska, 90-74, in its last game hitting 52 percent from the floor while turning the ball over just four times. The Terrapins have proven themselves at home knocking off Illinois there and losing to Wisconsin by only one point. |
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02-20-22 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -2.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Can the Wolverines win road games against Iowa and Wisconsin in a span of four days? I say no. Michigan upset the Hawkeyes this past Thursday, 84-79. Now, though, the Wolverines draw the 15th-ranked Badgers also on the road. Wisconsin gives up the fewest turnovers in the nation at 8.6. The Badgers' traditionally strong defense is coming on, too, giving up an average of 63.2 points during the last four games. Michigan has faced five ranked teams this season - and lost four of those five games. |
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