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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-23-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Houston Rockets OVER 211 | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
The last four in this series have gone over the total and this one should, too. |
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02-23-15 | Xavier v. St. John's -112 | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Xavier has picked up its game. But St. John's is 4-1 in its last five games, beat the Musketeers, 78-70, on the road 10 days ago and is in a good situational spot. |
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02-22-15 | Charlotte Hornets +10 v. Dallas Mavericks | 81-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
The Hornets got the rust off on Saturday when they lost 110-103 to the hot Thunder at home. That was Charlotte's first game since Feb. 10. |
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02-22-15 | Washington Wizards -120 v. Detroit Pistons | 89-106 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Washington is just 14-16 in its last 30 games. But there still is a class difference between these two teams. The Pistons are adjusting to their third new starting point guard and Reggie Jackson is no match for John Wall, who is averaging 30 points in his last three games versus Detroit. This is Jackson's first game for the Pistons. . |
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02-22-15 | Atlanta Hawks -4 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 97-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
The Hawks haven't lost three in a row all season. They will, though, if they lose this matchup. I don't see that happening. |
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02-21-15 | Marshall +10.5 v. UAB | Top | 54-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
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02-21-15 | New Orleans Pelicans +2 v. Miami Heat | Top | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
I'll go with the borderline playoff team from the Western Conference against the borderline playoff team from the much inferior Eastern Conference. |
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02-21-15 | Ball State v. Central Michigan -11.5 | 60-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and has strong revenge motivation. The Chippewas were hammered 83-65 by Ball State last month. The Cardinals are 2-11 in conference. That's one of their MAC victories and an embarrassement to Central Michigan. |
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02-21-15 | Austin Peay +19 v. Murray State | 54-89 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Murray State clearly is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference. Austin Peay sits at the bottom of the West standings. |
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02-20-15 | Brooklyn Nets -3 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 114-105 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Nobody is saying the Nets are a good team. But despite an awful record, the Nets are just one game out of a playoff spot. Brooklyn can't compete against elite teams, but can be trusted to take care of business against bottom feeders.  |
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02-20-15 | Boston Celtics v. Sacramento Kings -3.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
I see the Kings and their fans motivated and energized for the first time in a long period with the coaching switch to George Karl, who makes his Sacramento coaching debut here. |
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02-20-15 | Toronto Raptors +5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 105-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
The Hawks had lost some of their mojo going into All-Star break. They were just 3-3 and off a loss to Boston. The Hawks are one of the few teams that didn't benefit that much from the week long break as four of their players and head coach participated in the All-Star Game. |
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02-19-15 | Utah -8 v. Oregon State | Top | 47-37 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint. |
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02-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs -2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 115-119 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
I like Doc Rivers, but no coach is better with extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich. |
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02-18-15 | UCLA v. Arizona State -2.5 | 66-68 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
UCLA is not the same team on the road. The Bruins are just 3-9 away from Pauley Pavilion. Lack of depth and experience has hurt the Bruins on the road. Arizona is the second-most experienced team in the Pac-12 and has the guard depth to take advantage of UCLA's road woes. |
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02-18-15 | Northwestern +11 v. Minnesota | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten. |
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02-17-15 | Michigan State -4 v. Michigan | Top | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions. |
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02-17-15 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -11 | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Notre Dame is rested and prepared to blow out Wake Forest. The Irish last played a week ago. They had not been playing well during their last four games - losing at Pittsburgh, only beating ACC-worst Boston College by eight in their last home game on Feb. 4, getting blown out by 30 to Duke and nipping Clemson by two. |
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02-16-15 | Pittsburgh +13 v. Virginia | Top | 49-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road. |
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02-15-15 | California +17.5 v. Utah | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Cal has turned things around winning five in a row. The Golden Bears are 5-2 in true road games. They've won their past three away games while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road contests. Â |
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02-15-15 | Illinois +13.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season. |
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02-14-15 | New Mexico v. Nevada +4.5 | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
Nevada will be going all out at home off their worst defensive effort of the season and having dropped their last four at Lawlor Events Center. In three of their last four home losses, the Wolf Pack lost by a combined 10 points to UNLV, San Diego State and Fresno State. |
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02-14-15 | Oregon State -1 v. USC | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though. |
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02-13-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -3 | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0. |
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02-12-15 | Stanford +11.5 v. Utah | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games. |
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02-11-15 | Oregon -4 v. USC | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
Oregon is coming on while USC has dropped eight in a row done in by inexperience and lack of offense. |
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02-11-15 | San Antonio Spurs -6 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 104-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The Spurs shouldn't lack motivation as they have revenge for a blown 18-point lead in a 105-104 home loss to the Pistons last month. |
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02-10-15 | Xavier -3 v. Marquette | 64-44 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Xavier is ranked 34th in the NCAA Daily RPI while Marquette rates 114th. The 15-9Â Musketeers clearly are the superior team probably around a ninth seed if the NCAA Tournament were being seeded right now. Marquette has a losing record. |
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02-10-15 | Brooklyn Nets +12.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
The Nets are an old, veteran team composed of one-time stars past their primes. They are vulnerable to athletic, deep teams. |
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02-09-15 | Los Angeles Clippers +9 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 115-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
This marks the Clippers' final game of their eight-game road trip that started Jan. 28. The trip has turned into a disaster with Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick out. The Clippers have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They have a high fatigue rating here. |
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02-08-15 | San Antonio Spurs -1 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 82-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
The won-lost records show Toronto better than San Antonio at 34-17 compared to the Spurs' 32-18. But make no mistake, there is a class difference between these two clubs. |
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02-08-15 | Washington v. Oregon State -3 | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
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02-07-15 | Chicago Bulls -135 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 107-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
The Bulls have the better talent especially with Jrue Holiday out for New Orleans. The Bulls have been idle for two days and are seeking to halt a three-game losing streak. They have not lost four in a row all season. |
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02-07-15 | VCU v. Saint Bonaventure +3 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
VCU managed to cover against George Mason this past Wednesday, 72-60, in a game that was closer than the final score. The Rams won that game despite missing point guard Briante Weber, lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in a 64-55 loss to Richmond on Jan. 31. |
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02-06-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Matchup-wise Orlando is the more talented team. They have the best frontcourt player in Nikola Vucevic and a huge backcourt advantage. |
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02-05-15 | Washington State +9 v. Oregon State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow. |
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02-04-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Houston Rockets UNDER 204 | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Look for both offenses to be rusty as the Bulls last played on Friday while the Rockets have been idle since Saturday. That's too long of a layoff for this time of the season when teams are in the rhythm of playing at least every other day. These non-conference opponents are familiar with each other, too, having met last month. |
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02-04-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Indiana Pacers -3 | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Fortunate to be in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers remain in the playoff hunt. They have double revenge motivation and catch the Pistons without rest off a big home win against Miami last night. |
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02-04-15 | Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. |
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02-03-15 | Utah Jazz +8.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games and have lost three in a row. This skid is not deceiving. The Trail Blazers are not playing well. |
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02-03-15 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse UNDER 130.5 | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech has gone under in 20 of its last 28 ACC games. Look for that trend to continue here. |
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02-03-15 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. Detroit Pistons | 91-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
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02-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies -2 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 102-101 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
The guard-oriented, finesse Suns are not a good matchup against the physical, rugged Grizzlies, who are playing their finest defense of the season. |
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02-02-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay -5.5 v. Wright State | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Green Bay is coming off just its fifth loss of the season falling at Cleveland State this past Saturday. The Phoenix have won and covered in the game following their previous four defeats. They have a strong historical trend in this direction covering 68 percent of the time during the past 59 instances. |
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02-01-15 | Miami Heat +3.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
While the Celtics are in rebuild mode again this season having dealt Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, the Heat are fighting for a playoff spot and consider this a crucial game as they begin a four-game road trip. |
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01-31-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 225 | Top | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
It's easy to see a lot of points being scored by these two teams. But the oddsmaker opened this game much too high considering the circumstances. |
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01-31-15 | Charlotte Hornets +7 v. Denver Nuggets | 104-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
No team is giving up fewer points per game this month than Charlotte at 89.8. The Nuggets have been in a scoring slump averaging 93.1 points during their past seven games. Brian Shaw still can't seem to figure out the right rotation. Denver has lost eight of its past nine. |
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01-31-15 | Houston Rockets -4.5 v. Detroit Pistons | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The Pistons have yet to win in three games since losing point guard Brandon Jennings for the season. Detroit just has journeyman D.J. Augustin and rookie Spencer Dinwiddie as their only point guards now. |
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01-30-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets +7.5 | 127-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Since they met in the playoffs last season, the Raptors have remained good while the Nets have sunk to the point where they would miss the postseason if the playoffs began now. |
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01-30-15 | Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 93-87 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Dwight Howard isn't going to play, but the Celtics have a weak front line and the spread isn't as high as it would be if Howard were playing. |
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01-29-15 | Utah -6.5 v. UCLA | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
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01-29-15 | Colorado v. USC +2.5 | 98-94 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Colorado is a bad road team, has injuries and USC is playing better than it record shows. |
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01-29-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic +4.5 | Top | 115-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Both of these teams are in rebuilding mode. The Bucks have made bigger strides this season under Jason Kidd and own the stronger bench, but Orlando has the better talent with Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and an improving rookie point guard in Elfrid Payton. |
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01-28-15 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season. |
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01-27-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Miami Heat -3.5 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The Heat have been playing tremendous defense, are home and have double-revenge motivation going here. |
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01-25-15 | Indiana Pacers -123 v. Orlando Magic | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
The Pacers rank No. 3 in scoring defense, are highly motivated to end their seven-game losing streak and have back starting point guard George Hill. |
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01-25-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
The Clippers have the superstars, but that doesn't mean they are better than the Suns when playing in Phoenix. |
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01-24-15 | Kansas v. Texas -3 | Top | 75-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
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01-23-15 | Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
The Rockets lost a lot of their swagger and confidence after suffering recent blowout losses to Golden State. Now they face the hot Suns on the road, a team they do not match up against well at all. |
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01-23-15 | Boston Celtics v. Denver Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 100-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Denver had started to show signs of life earlier this month, but have lost four in a row. Three of those defeats came to the Mavericks, Warriors and Spurs, though. |
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01-22-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Los Angeles Clippers -11.5 | 84-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
The Nets don't have the offense to hang with the Clippers and are fat and happy after holding off Sacramento last night to open their West Coast trip with a victory. They have a far more winnable road game against the Jazz on Saturday. |
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01-22-15 | UCLA v. Oregon State -1.5 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups. |
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01-21-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 218 | Top | 113-126 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
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01-21-15 | Indiana State +13 v. Northern Iowa | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Northern Iowa is giving up too many points here. Indiana State has won and covered in five of its last six games. The Sycamores also lead the Missouri Valley Conference in field goal percentage. |
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01-20-15 | San Antonio Spurs -7 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
San Antonio is starting to make its move with Kawhi Leonard back healthy. The Spurs have won five of their last six, including three in a row. Leonard helped the Spurs win their last two games - 110-96 over Portland and 89-69 over Utah. San Antonio has tightened its defense allowing just 91.1 points per game during its last six matchups. |
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01-19-15 | Toronto Raptors -120 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Taking to the road after six straight home games might be the best thing for the Raptors especially since they are taking on the Bucks. |
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01-19-15 | Detroit Pistons +8.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 82-93 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Detroit and Atlanta have been two play-on teams. But the spot and line value clearly favor the Pistons in this matchup. |
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01-17-15 | Washington Wizards -4 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Revenge can be overrated in the NBA. Not here. The Wizards were embarrassed 102-80 at home last night by Eastern Conference rival Brooklyn. |
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01-17-15 | Michigan State +3 v. Maryland | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier. |
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01-16-15 | Denver Nuggets +8 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 89-97 | Push | 0 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
A revenge spot for Dallas has the oddsmaker opening this game way too high. The Mavericks sat out Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Rajon Rondo when they met the Nuggets at Pepsi Center two nights ago. The Nuggets won, 114-107. |
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01-15-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
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01-15-15 | Oregon State v. Washington -6 | Top | 43-56 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona. |
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01-14-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
The spot couldn't be better for Denver. The Nuggets have been idle for four days and catch the aging Mavericks off an overtime road victory against Sacramento last night. All of Dallas' starters logged at least 36 minutes against the Kings with four of them seeing at least 38 minutes of action. Big man Tyson Chandler played nearly 44 minutes. Â |
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01-14-15 | Illinois State -3.5 v. Indiana State | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
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01-13-15 | Dallas Mavericks -4.5 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
Dallas hasn't lost three games in a row all season and I don't see the Mavericks losing here. The Mavericks are 19-2 in their last 21 regular-season games versus Sacramento. |
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01-12-15 | Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 113-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a bad matchup for the Nets, who are short in the backcourt without injured Deron Williams and don't have the inside talent to contain Dwight Howard. |
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01-10-15 | Dayton -8.5 v. Fordham | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage. |
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01-09-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have to win sometime don't they? They are mired in a 13-game losing streak minus key players Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin. In addition, veteran point guard Mo Williams turned an ankle in the Wolves' narrow loss to the Suns two nights and may not play. |
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01-07-15 | Utah Jazz +10.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 97-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm going to take this many points with Utah after word that Trey Burks is healthy enough to play after missing the last game due to illness. Utah has covered seven of its last eight road games and catch Chicago in a flat spot. |
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01-07-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
I'll take the points with a good Western Conference team versus a good Eastern Conference team. Memphis ranks sixth defensively and is shooting 46.6 percent from the floor. Atlanta ranks fifth defensively and shoots 46.7 percent from the floor. The Grizzlies are 19-1 the past 20 times when outshooting their opponent. |
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01-06-15 | Phoenix Suns -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
These have been two play-on teams, but I believe the Suns get it done here in a revenge spot and off one of their most impressive victories of the season. |
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01-03-15 | Utah Jazz v. Minnesota Timberwolves +1 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Much is made of Minnesota's many injuries. But Utah is down to its fourth-string shooting guard with Alec Burks, Rodney Hood and Patrick Christopher all out. The Jazz also lost center Enes Kanter last night in their 98-92 home loss to the Hawks. Kanter suffered an ankle injury leaving Utah thin up front, too, along with the backcourt. |
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01-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies -4 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are back on track following their 95-87 home win against the Spurs this past Tuesday. Memphis doesn't want to give that great win right back with a loss against the lowly Lakers. Memphis ranks fifth defensively giving up 12 points fewer per game than the Lakers, who rank last defensively. The Grizzlies remain without Zach Randolph, but still dominate inside against the Lakers with Marc Gasol and at point guard with Mike Conley, who quietly is having an outstanding season. Conley has taken advantage of the Lakers' weakness at point guard to average 22 points and shoot 56.4 percent from the field in the last three games versus LA. The Grizzlies have defeated the Lakers in eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past four. They beat the Lakers on Nov. 26 by six points when the Lakers played pretty well. I don't think the Lakers will be that sharp here coming off a 111-103 road win at Denver. Kobe Bryant may have had his best game of the season in that victory. Bryant, though, is shooting 37.5 percent from the floor. |
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12-27-14 | Southern Utah +19 v. UNLV | Top | 45-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here. Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games. UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number. |
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12-26-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 107-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
No team has been hotter than Atlanta, which has won 14 of 15. The Hawks have proven they can beat elite competition, too, reeling off five straight victories with those wins coming against the Bulls, Cavaliers, Rockets, Mavericks and Clippers. The first four of those victories were achieved on the road. Atlanta rallied from a 13-point deficit to knock off the Clippers on Tuesday in its last game. I see a letdown for the Hawks as they finally step down in class. The two teams meet again tomorrow night in Milwaukee so it's not a kill spot either for the Hawks. The Bucks should be fired-up after holding a 50-minute players-only meeting following their last game, a 108-101 home loss to the Hornets. Atlanta has been playing outstanding defense, but the Bucks have reached triple digits in 12 of their past 14 games. They are shooting 49.9 percent from the field this month, best in the NBA. The Bucks have covered 12 of 17 road games this season and have the highest scoring bench in the league. That puts them in line for at least a back-door cover if the Hawks play better than expected. |
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12-25-14 | Golden State Warriors +2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Golden State is the better team and the set up is right for the Warriors. The Warriors led by 29 points when they rolled past the Clippers, 121-104, in their first meeting in early November. They are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 Western Conference matchups. Golden State is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and also has a top-five offense. No other NBA team is in the top-five offensively and defensively. The Warriors have David Lee back and will be highly motivated following a shocking loss in its last game this past Tuesday against the Lakers. Note that game was played at Staples Center where this matchup is. So the Warriors are rested. The Clippers aren't, though. This is their third game in four days. They've been at San Antonio and had to fly in from Atlanta where they played two nights ago. This makes their third time zone in four nights. Golden State has won and covered 75 percent of the time this season in the 12 games it has played against teams with a winning record. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS the last six times when they faced an opponent with an above .600 winning percentage. Contrast this with the Clippers who are 4-7 SU, 2-9 ATS when facing foes above .500 and are 1-6 ATS when taking on foes with an above .600 winning percentage. The Clippers also have failed to cover 13 of their last 18 home games. |
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12-25-14 | George Washington +5.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go. Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor. George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone. |
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12-20-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Houston Rockets -5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Don't be fooled by the Hawks' 18-7 record. Atlanta has played the weakest schedule of any team. The Hawks have some talented players, but they aren't that good and point guard Jeff Teague may be out. Atlanta is 2-18 in its last 20 road games versus Western Conference opponents. Houston is holding foes to 93 points a game at home. The Rockets have the No. 2 defense in the league and have won 19 straight games at home versus Eastern Conference foes. The Rockets' eight-game winning streak was snapped in a 99-90 home loss to New Orleans. The Rockets had no legs in that game after winning in high altitude the night before in overtime against Denver. It has been more than a year since the Rockets have lost back-to-back home games.   |
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12-20-14 | Utah Jazz v. Charlotte Hornets -4.5 | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
I don't see any way the Jazz can win three straight road games. This is Utah's fifth game in seven days - all road contests and their second matchup with in 48 hours. The Hornets have a poor record, but that's in part because they've played a very difficult schedule. They should start to get better as they are healthier and some of their players such as Gerald Henderson are playing better. The Hornets hold a strong inside-outside edge on Utah with Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. |
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12-19-14 | Utah Jazz v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Orlando is a much improved team. The Magic went 23-59 last season. Orlando is 10-18 this season and has played the most road games in the league at 19. Now the Magic are in a stop-the-pain game after consecutive road losses to Toronto and Boston. Sometimes returning home after a road swing can be tricky, especially coming home to sunny central Florida. But this was just a short tip that ended two nights ago so I'm expecting a focused Orlando effort. Utah is in a rare letdown spot after winning for just the second times in its last 14 games defeating Miami on the road, 105-87, this past Wednesday. The Jazz sank an insane 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range in the victory. This marks the Jazz's fourth road game in a row. It's their third road game in four days and fourth matchup in six days. Utah is 3-10 away from Salt Lake City. The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home contests versus opponents with a losing road record. Orlando defeated the Jazz in Salt Lake City, 98-93, two weeks ago despite missing their best inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Orlando is a much better team with Vucevic back in the lineup. The 7-footer is shooting 51 percent from the floor. Utah ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Â
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12-18-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors -135 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Golden State has won 16 of its last 17 and are eager to start a new winning streak after losing on Tuesday at Memphis. The Warriors are 8-1 at home, winning their last six there. The Warriors have no flaws. They rank No. 1 defensively and are sixth offensively. Oklahoma City is not all the way back despite going 7-1 since Kevin Durant returned. The Thunder have played an extremely easy schedule since Durant has been back facing opponents who were a combined 50 games under .too. They also caught the Cavaliers without LeBron James, Kings without DeMarcus Cousins and Suns without Goran Dragic. In a few weeks, the Thunder may very well be as good as Golden State, but right now the Warriors are better even without Andrew Bogut especially when factoring in home-court. |
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12-17-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
The Bucks have the best point spread mark in the NBA at 17-8. That includes a 9-5 ATS road record. They have a strong ATS mark versus Western Conference foes covering 11 of the past 15 times and have gotten the money in five of their last six meetings against Portland. Milwaukee has won in two of its last three visits to Portland, losing last season in overtime. The Bucks did lose their prize rookie, Jabari Parker, for the season in their road win against the Suns two nights ago. That put a damper on that victory, but I feel the Bucks will come out fired up in their first game without Parker. This is a sandwich spot for Portland, which knocked off San Antonio at home two nights ago and plays at San Antonio on Friday. The Spurs are a far more important opponent to Portland than non-conference foe Milwaukee. The Trail Blazers are scoring 4.4 points less per game than last season. However, their defense has improved. Yet the Trail Blazers also suffered a key injury in their last game when center Robin Lopez broke his hand. Lopez had spearheaded Portland's defense. He was averaging 9.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots. Now the Trail Blazers have to use over-the-hill, Chris Kaman at center, weakening their interior defense. The Bucks have scored 50 or more points in the paint during three of their last four games. |
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12-17-14 | San Diego State v. Cincinnati | 62-71 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
These are two of the stingiest defenses in the country, but San Diego State is the better team. Cincinnati has yet to play a ranked opponent. The Bearcats are inexperienced and struggling to find their offense. San Diego State ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense. The Aztecs are tournament tested having reached the Sweet 16 last season. They have had a week to prepare for this matchup and their offense is better versus man-to-man defenses, which Cincinnati plays. Cincinnati is a tough venue, but San Diego State is 42-18-2 ATS in its last 62 road contests. |
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12-16-14 | Arizona State +3 v. Marquette | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players. Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago. Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is now eligible. The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus. |
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12-15-14 | Orlando Magic +7 v. Toronto Raptors | 82-95 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Orlando is much improved this season with some underrated young players. They also have Nikola Vucevic back and are in a good situational spot. The Raptors had to rally from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to beat New York on Sunday in overtime on the road. The Raptors are just 5-4 in their last nine games after a fast start. They lack a consistent go-to guy with DeMar DeRozan out. Orlando is at its best on the road. The Magic have covered 12 of their last 16 away matchups. This is a revenge spot for them after the Raptors came from 11 down to nip them on the road, 104-100, last month. The Raptors host the Nets in their next game in two nights. The Nets eliminated them in a bitter seven-game playoff series last season. |
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12-15-14 | Elon +32.5 v. Duke | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Elon is guard-oriented and plays good perimeter defense. The Phoenix are feisty and can hang inside this number against Duke. This is their last opportunity to probably face a Top 25 team during the regular season. Duke is rusty and has a huge look-ahead game on deck. The Blue Devils last played on Dec. 3 when they knocked off then second-ranked Wisconsin. Duke plays defending national champion Connecticut on Thursday. Elon is No. 1 in the underrated Colonial Athletic in 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Phoenix nearly beat Missouri on the road and lost in overtime at Northwestern. So they have experience against major college programs. Elon rallied from 19 down at Missouri this past Thursday to pull within one point with less than 30 seconds to play before falling 78-73. The Phoenix outscored the Tigers, 46-32, in the second half proving they won't quit. I like to have a big 'dog like that going for me. |
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12-14-14 | San Antonio Spurs -3.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
The Spurs have had one full day to stew after losing at home to the Lakers this past Friday. The words "pitiful" should be seared on the Spurs' minds. That's what Gregg Popovich called their performance versus the Lakers. I'm expecting the Spurs to play at a high intensity level against the 10-13, inconsistent Nuggets. San Antonio is 16-6 ATS when playing on one day's rest. That mark isn't a fluke since Popovich is the best coach in the business and the most dangerous with time to prepare. The Spurs can't afford not to be sharp with upcoming games against Portland twice, Memphis, Dallas, Clippers and Thunder. Denver isn't playing well losing five of its last six. This includes a 108-96 road loss to Houston last night. The Spurs match up well to the Nuggets particularly inside with Tim Duncan. The Spurs swept the Nuggets last season winning by an average of nearly 20 points a game. They have defeated Denver in 12 of the past 16 meetings. Duncan has dominated Denver averaging 22.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.2 blocks during the past six meetings. |
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12-13-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The 76ers should come in to this home matchup motivated after an embarrassing 88-70 road loss to the Nets last night. The 76ers have better talent than their record shows. This is a tricky spot for Memphis. It's the Grizzlies' lone road game during a six-game span and they just outlasted Charlotte, 113-107, in double overtime last night. All but one of Memphis' starters played big minutes. The Grizzlies do not have a strong bench. The Grizzlies have far more important games on deck - hosting Golden State on Tuesday and playing at San Antonio on Wednesday. So for this game they just want to come away with a victory with no need to go all out to cover any double-digit type margin. The 76ers have covered five of their last seven and are 7-4 ATS at home this season. |
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12-13-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 215 | Top | 105-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Golden State has won 14 in a row. The perception is the Warriors have achieved this by offense. But it has been their outstanding defense. Golden State leads the NBA in defense holding foes to 94.5 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors also rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 40.9 percent. No team has shot better than 44 percent against the Warriors from the field during Golden State's winning streak. This is an early start - which should help the under. The Mavericks are about offense, but they don't have the young legs to engage in an up-tempo battle with Stephen Curry. Dallas won't have point guard Jameer Nelson either. That's a plus for the under, too, as Nelson is too old to keep pace with Curry. The under has cashed five of the last six times these teams have met. |
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12-12-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Chicago Bulls -130 | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers have been playing above their heads and it caught up to them in their last game, a shocking 90-82 road loss to Minnesota two nights ago. The Trail Blazers scored a season-low and had their worst shooting game of the season. I'm expecting better from Portland today, but not enough for them to beat the Bulls. The Bulls are getting healthier, Derrick Rose is looking better and Tom Thibodeau has dialed up the intensity level. That came together in a 105-80 rout of Brooklyn this past Wednesday. I'm expecting the Bulls to have a carryover performance and remain sharp, especially with a strong revenge motive. The Trail Blazers dealt Chicago its worst defeat of the season when they hosted them on Nov. 21, winning 105-87. The Bulls didn't have Rose, Pau Gasol and Kirk Hinrich in that game. Joakim Noah may not play today, but other than that the Bulls are healthy. Portland hasn't played a winning team during its last eight road games. The only good team the Trail Blazers have played on the road was the Clippers early in the season when the Clippers were struggling. Portland doesn't have a strong bench and is playing on the road for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. The Trail Blazers are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. |
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